Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/21/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON OCT 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A DRYING TREND WILL START THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER HUGGING THE SKY ISLANDS. REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES CONTINUED TO EXIT THE CWA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A BIT HAZY OUT THERE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS VALID 19/16Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE SURFACE INVERSION MIXES OUT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON SLY/SWLY BREEZES TODAY. OTHERWISE...19/12Z KTWC SOUNDING WAS PRETTY ROBUST WITH REGARD TO SB CAPE...INDICATING 1420 J/KG AND A PWAT OF 1.06 INCHES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WAS CONFINED TO BELOW 700 MB AS CONSIDERABLE DRYING HAS OCCURRED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. CIRA LPW VALUES VALID 19/15Z INDICATED THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTED MAINLY ACROSS GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES...WHERE WE EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS OF VARIOUS HIRES NWP MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS NOTION...KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY EAST TO NORTHEAST OF TUCSON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THAT SAID...THE CURRENT TRENDS ARE HANDLED WELL BY THE FORECAST AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAIL. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/18Z. ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY E/NE OF KTUS TODAY INCLUDING KSAD. BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FEW-SCT CLOUDS WEST OF KTUS AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS E OF KTUS WITH DECKS OF 7-12K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 10-15 KTS LATE THIS MORNING THRU 20/00Z. SPEEDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU TUESDAY MORNING ALONG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST/NORTHEAST OF TUCSON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON ON THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 20-FT WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO THIS WEEKEND. && .PREV DISCUSSION...LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THIS SAME GENERAL AREA FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AND MORE SO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM ENTERS ARIZONA. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THIS SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY OF ARIZONA THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND EJECTING EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. THEREAFTER....HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL NUDGE INTO ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND FOR DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME READINGS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL TEND TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
302 AM MST MON OCT 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A DRYING TREND WILL START THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP FROM EAST OF PHOENIX TO NEAR SAFFORD AND CLIFTON EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THIS SAME GENERAL AREA FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AND MORE SO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM ENTERS ARIZONA. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THIS SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY OF ARIZONA THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND EJECTING EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. THEREAFTER....HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL NUDGE INTO ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND FOR DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME READINGS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL TEND TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/12Z. ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY E/NE OF KTUS TODAY. BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL W OF KTUS...AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL E OF KTUS. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS TIL 19/17Z...THEN SLY/SWLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS TIL 20/03Z. AFT 20/03Z...SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST/NORTHEAST OF TUCSON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON ON THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN WEEK...CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. 20-FT WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
347 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A MODEST WARMING AND DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG EXPOSED RIDGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. && .DISCUSSION...AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF DEL NORTE...NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTY. THESE ARE THANKS TO A PASSING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...ALLOWING THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS LIKELY ALONG EXPOSED RIDGES AND PEAKS AND PERHAPS A FEW FAVORABLY ORIENTED VALLEYS. WHILE AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON FIRE WEATHER FOR THE AREA...OF WHICH THERE ARE MORE DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. IN THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS...ADDITIONAL FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT COVERAGE. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOME PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF TRINITY COUNTY LIKE HAYFORK AND RUTH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST COAST...ALTHOUGH A WEAK TROUGH WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS HEIGHTS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST AS WELL...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IF ANY AT ALL. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THERMAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ON CALIFORNIA...WITH MODERATE NOCTURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE...AND BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE NW CA COAST WILL ONLY RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH LITTLE CONFIDENCE EXISTS REGARDING ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE. /BRC && .AVIATION...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE AT KACV FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHO CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OVER THE PACIFIC...LOW CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REDWOOD COAST AS MOISTURE PILES UP ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE TERRAIN WITH INCREASING N WINDS. AS WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE BECOME MORE OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND RECENT GROUND MOISTURE...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG FORMATION AND PERHAPS A RETURN OF EVEN LOWER CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON TUE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHO CLOUDS MAY LINGER NEAR AND JUST N OF CAPE MENDOCINO. AT KUKI...LOW CLOUDINESS AND SOME GROUND FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILING REDUCTIONS TO AN UPDATED TAF SET. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. /SEC && .MARINE...N WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE E PACIFIC AND AN INLAND THERMAL TROF SHARPENS. GUSTS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WINDS MAY DIMINISH A BIT TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED. WINDS AND SEAS STILL LOOK TO BE MARGINAL ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A SHORTER DURATION ADVISORY IS NEEDED...ESPECIALLY BY THU WITH SECONDARY SURGE OF N WINDS. LONG PERIOD S-SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY FRI NIGHT WITH INITIAL PERIODS AROUND 22 SECONDS. THIS WILL BE COINCIDING WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT WINDS DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY. DEPENDING ON RESIDUAL MID- RANGE SWELL...AN ELEVATED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /SEC && .FIRE WEATHER...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH PARTS OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE SOME AREAS OF DEL NORTE...NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN TRINITY COULD SEE A LIGHT WETTING RAIN FROM THIS ACTIVITY...ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED MUCH MORE THAN ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. TONIGHT...A REDEVELOPING INLAND TROUGH WILL RESULT IN QUICKLY INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG PRIMARILY EXPOSED RIDGES AND PEAKS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN QUICKLY DROPPING HUMIDITY VALUES AT HIGH ELEVATIONS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF RECOVERY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE THESE NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES AS WELL...ALTHOUGH LIKELY STILL SHY OF RED FLAG CRITERIA WITH THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. IN ADDITIONS...THE RECENT LIGHT RAINS LIKELY MEAN THAT MOST FUELS IN THE AREA WILL BE ON THE MOIST SIDE...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS LIKELY TO BE THE CASE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MENDOCINO COUNTY WHERE VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS FALLEN. IN ANY CASE...A HEADLINE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST HIGHLIGHTING THE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS...BUT A RED FLAG WARNING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /BRC && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 319 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 .Synopsis... Other than lingering mainly mountain and northern Sacramento Valley showers into this evening...warmer and drier weather is expected over interior NorCal this week. Breezy northerly winds are expected at times early this week. && .Discussion... Main area of clouds with the potential for light showers is returning to our CWA from the NW as sheared or stretched out vorticity drops Swd along the CA coast on the backside of the larger scale upper trof over the Wrn States. Cloud cover has expanded over most of the Wrn half of Shasta/Tehama Cos and should continue to spread SSEwd over most of the CWA this evening. High Resolution QPFs from the HRRR suggests the precip will be confined mostly to the Coastal Range where the main dynamics are moving through...and to a lesser extent...the Siernev where cyclonic flow on the backside of the upper low over NV may result in enough moisture and instability for a "pop-up" shower or two from the Tahoe area Swd. Warmer and drier conditions will be developing over interior NorCal for the rest of the week due to increased ridging from the Ern Pac. Increasing Nly surface pressure gradients in the wake of the upper low and energy dropping Swd on the backside of the trof will lead to locally breezy north winds later tonight into Tue before subsiding Tue afternoon. The previously issued fire weather watch will be cancelled due to the expected higher Min RH from the evaporation from local recent wetting rains. Still there is the concern of breezy Nly winds developing with a band of 25-35 kt 2000 ft winds developing tonight and into Tue morning mainly from Shasta Co along the W side of Sac Vly into Napa/Solano Co. This low level support weakens Tue afternoon...but rebounds to a lesser extent again Tue nite and Wed morning as the gradient turns more NEly or Ely. Since the strongest band of wind is expected mainly overnight and into the early morning hours on Tue...the decoupling lower atmosphere will preclude strong or advisory criteria wind speeds. Then...the NEly to Ely pressure gradient and core of the 925 mbs winds Tue nite and Wed morning...would favor primarily the NE Sac Vly foothill and Srn Lake Co/Napa Co areas with locally gusty ridge winds. These mainly katabatic/downslope winds will also lead to adiabatic warming effects on both the Min T/Max T the next couple of days. However...a weak trof moving through the region on Thu may result in some very slight cooling. In any event...Max Ts look to be running some 5-10 degrees above normal for much of the week. JHM .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday) High pressure will remain over our area through late this week and into the weekend bringing warm and dry conditions. During this period, temperatures look to be 10-15 degrees above normal. By Monday both the GFS and ECMWF have a trough developing out over the Pacific which will bring some cooling to our area. Beyond this, models disagree on where and when the trough could move onshore but this is getting beyond our forecast period. Wilson && .AVIATION... Mainly VFR conditions expected across the valley through the next 24 hours. A short wave passing through this afternoon will bring some showers to the Northern Sacramento Valley and possibly some MVFR conditions in the heavier showers. North winds are expected to strengthen overnight and may be gusting up to 20/25kts tomorrow morning in the Southern/Northern Sacramento Valley. Wilson && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
902 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 902 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE ROBUST RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SHEARED APART. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY...BUT INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN WEAKENING NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10000 FT TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW SAN JUANS OVERNIGHT. UP TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE THERE WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-70. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE CULPRIT FOR ALL THIS WEATHER..A CLOSED LOW...WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SRN AZ WHILE SPOKES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND IT. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALREADY POP UP BTWN NAM AND GFS/EC WITH NAM HIGHLIGHTING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP FOR OUR NRN TIER ZONES WHILE GFS/EC FAVOR AREAS SOUTH. H7 WINDS FOUND IN NAM OVER THIS AREA ARE IN THE 30 TO 35MPH RANGE WHILE THOSE IN OTHER MODELS ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 MPH. NAM MAY BE PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON THESE WINDS BRINGING MORE PRECIP INTO THAT AREA. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ATTM...WILL KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REALIZATION THAT SOME AREAS WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OR ANY PRECIP WHILE OTHERS WILL. LATER SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED ONCE MODELS AGREE ON THE FINER DETAILS. FOR WED NIGHT...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT SAN JUANS WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET LIKELY SEEING SOME SNOW...AN INCH OR THREE. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP. WILL SEE HOW MUCH SNOW THOSE AREAS RECEIVE TONIGHT BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE LOW FINALLY OPENS UP THURSDAY AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD CORE MOVES OVERHEAD CAUSING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WHILE PWATS STILL REMAIN HIGH. ALL HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS FAVORED IN THE MODELS BUT SOME VALLEYS WILL ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST USHERING IN COOLER AIR. MODELS HIGHLIGHT A POST FRONTAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...2 TO 4 INCHES...LOOKS POSSIBLE ABOVE 9K FEET OR SO. THE FLAT TOPS AND NRN MTNS LOOK FAVORED THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND SAN JUANS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SOME SNOW...AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES. FRIDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MORE ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS THOUGH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LOWER THAN SEEN LATELY. FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY AND THIS FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD BUT NOTHING TOO EXCEPTIONAL. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH...AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT RANGE LOOKS FAVORED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. CIGS WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW MVFR THRESHOLDS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 10K THROUGH THIS OPERATIONAL PERIOD. IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR KDRO AND KTEX FROM 21Z-00Z ...KMTJ...KCNY...KMTJ...KASE AND KEGE FROM 00Z-06Z. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ019. UT...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NL SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
549 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 UPDATED TO RAISE POPS A BIT OVER THE ERN PLAINS. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR POINT TO CONTINUED SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS E OF I-25 THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE A BIT OF A LULL AFTER 06Z BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ROSE && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 UPPER LOW FORECAST TO SWING INTO WESTERN AZ THIS EVENING...THEN LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER DURING THE DAY WED. STRONG SHORT WAVE LIFTING AROUND THE LOW THROUGH NM ALREADY FORCING A LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A FEW TSRA WORKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SANGRES/SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AS OF MID-AFTERNOON. EXPECT WAVE TO ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A LULL IN PRECIP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WAVE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL...WITH NORTH WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE TEMPORARILY HAMPERING PRECIP AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW LEVELS START NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL THIS EVENING...BUT SLOWLY FALL OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAN JUANS. ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER A MORNING LULL...PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPS AND SPREADS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER...WHICH INCREASES VERTICAL MOTION AND ALLOWS LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS TO TURN MORE E-NE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. INSTABILITY RATHER LIMITED...BUT WITH FAIRLY STRONG FORCING TOUGH TO RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION GOING ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...BUT WITH CONVECTION AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION...EXPECT SOME RATHER HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET...INCLUDING THE SUMMIT OF PIKES PEAK. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES BEGINNING THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WED...THOUGH IMPACTS MAY BE LIMITED TO AREAS MAINLY ABOVE PASS LEVEL. ELEVATIONS IN THE 8-10K RANGE MAY SEE SNOW AT TIMES UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION...THOUGH ACCUMS THIS LOW SHOULD BE MINOR. MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...THOUGH DID NUDGE MAX TEMP GRID UP SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL OF A FEW RAIN FREE HOURS EARLY IN THE DAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 ...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WED NIGHT THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER AZ...CONTINUING TO DRAW A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS NM AND INTO CO. THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO EJECT TO THE NE AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY THU...MOVING UP INTO EASTERN WY THU NIGHT. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CROSSES CO ON FRI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN...AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS...WILL OCCUR WED NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THU. BY THU EVE THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR SHOWERS TO START TAPERING OFF. THEREFORE...THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS GOOD FOR BEING IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z FRI. AS FOR TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON THU...THEN PERHAPS WARMING UP TO NEAR 70F FOR FRI. LOW TEMPS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL THREATEN THE SLV AND HIGH VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SAVE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SAT MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...THE WEEKEND LOOKS ESSENTIALLY DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY...THEN TRACKS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE AREA MON AFTN...THEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE MONDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WILL PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR ALL OF THE E PLAINS AND E MTS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH DAYS IN THE 60S. MOORE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA MANY AREAS 00Z-05Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH MOST HIGHER PEAKS/PASSES OBSCURED AFTER ABOUT 00Z. WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION THIS EVENING THEN VCSH OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS INCREASES AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z AS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH LOWER CIGS AND SCATTERED -SHRA PERSISTING INTO WED. MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY STAY OBSCURED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH WED...THOUGH A FEW BREAKS MAY BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF -TSRA/-SHRA WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS UNDER HEAVIER PRECIP. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-066-068-073-075-080-082. && $$ UPDATE...ROSE SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1057 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. 00Z HRRR BRINGS IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO DECIDE WHETHER TO ADD IN ANY POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND/OR EARLY MORNING. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION...SO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. USED A MIX OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S...WITH THE COOLEST LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING NEARBY...EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOW IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BEGIN TO WARM UP TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WED MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. W/SW FLOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W/SE FLOW WED MORNING BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WED AFT. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN... .WED NIGHT...VFR. .THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS...MAINLY INLAND AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW WINDS G20KT. .FRI...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT. .SAT...VFR. .SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. FOR THE OCEAN...WINDS AND WAVES WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET HAVE DIMINISHED...AND SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED HERE. EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...SCA CONTINUES UNTIL 10Z WED AS WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN ABOVE SCA. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MIGHT ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL AREA WATERS. SEAS AND WINDS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY AND REMAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY ON THE OCEAN IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/FIG NEAR TERM...BC/JP SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...PW MARINE...BC/FIG HYDROLOGY...BC/FIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1036 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1015 PM EDT...00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL A RATHER DRY BELOW H800 FROM HERE AND KBUF WHICH CONCUR WITH THE CEILINGS BETWEEN 5-8K FEET. THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE CONTINUED TO TRACK EAST WEAKENED WITH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING A LITTLE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE UPSTREAM WAVE NEAR KORD THAT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND FURTHER INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS THE SAME AT THIS TIME. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SEEMS WE ARE IN NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD A BIT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND STILL A MILD EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 50 PERCENT NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES VERMONT. FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. STILL REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY. IT WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 70 FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MORE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. POPS FOR THE DAY WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...RANGING DOWN TO ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 70 ONCE AGAIN. MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CHILLY CANADIAN AIRMASS BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AS 1030+MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS BUT AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEN THE UPPER LOW/STORM IMPACTING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK SYNOPTIC SHIFT TOWARD A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...THERE REMAINS A BRIEF TAP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FEED WHICH IS SEEN IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. SO WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHER POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING PER TIMING OF THE GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SUITE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AS OPPOSED TO THE GGEM/GFS WHICH WANT TO LINGER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE I84 CORRIDOR. SEEMS THE KEY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE STRENGTH THE OF RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. ENSEMBLE MEANS DAMPEN OUT THE FEATURES SO FOR NOW WE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF AS WE RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL. CONSENSUS INCREASES FOR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WHICH FOR LATER OCTOBER...AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID 30S. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/THU FOR KPOU-KPSF-KALB. WHILE AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE PREVALENT...CIGS WERE ABOVE FLIGHT THRESHOLDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSE TO KGFL...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS MAY ALSO IMPACT KALB-KPSF AS WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND VCSH RESPECTFULLY. GENERALLY...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT RATHER DIFFUSE. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT... AND THEN DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A BETTERCHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT. RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GJM NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM SHORT TERM...GJM LONG TERM...BGM/WASULA AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...GJM/11 HYDROLOGY...GJM/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1001 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. 00Z HRRR BRINGS IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO DECIDE WHETHER TO ADD IN ANY POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND/OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION...SO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. USED A MIX OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S...WITH THE COOLEST LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING NEARBY...EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOW IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BEGIN TO WARM UP TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WED MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. W/SW FLOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT. LIGHT W/SE FLOW WED MORNING BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WED AFT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN... .WED NIGHT...VFR. .THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS...MAINLY INLAND AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW WINDS G20KT. .FRI...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT. .SAT...VFR. .SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FOR THE OCEAN...WINDS AND WAVES WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET HAVE DIMINISHED...AND SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED HERE. EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...SCA CONTINUES UNTIL 10Z WED AS WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN ABOVE SCA. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MIGHT ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL AREA WATERS. SEAS AND WINDS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY AND REMAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY ON THE OCEAN IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/FIG NEAR TERM...BC/JP SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...PW MARINE...BC/FIG HYDROLOGY...BC/FIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
737 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 700 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF UPSTREAM SHOWERS AS THE LEADING EDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. AMPLE SHOWERS FURTHER UPSTREAM ALONG I90 INTO BUFFALO CONTINUE TO TRACK ESE. THESE SHOWERS WERE RIGHT ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS MID-UPR FLOW WAS CONFLUENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS RESULTS IN A CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS/WX ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IN FACT...LATEST HRRR POINTS TOWARD A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND LIKELY ASSISTING WITH MOISTENING UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER THEN THE SECOND ROUND RESULTING IN A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND. OTHERWISE...SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK OKAY AT THE PRESENT TIME. PREV DISC... AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT... EXPECT CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER WEST AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 50 PERCENT NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES VERMONT. FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. STILL REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY. IT WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 70 FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MORE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. POPS FOR THE DAY WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...RANGING DOWN TO ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 70 ONCE AGAIN. MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CHILLY CANADIAN AIRMASS BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AS 1030+MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS BUT AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEN THE UPPER LOW/STORM IMPACTING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK SYNOPTIC SHIFT TOWARD A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...THERE REMAINS A BRIEF TAP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FEED WHICH IS SEEN IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. SO WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHER POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING PER TIMING OF THE GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SUITE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AS OPPOSED TO THE GGEM/GFS WHICH WANT TO LINGER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE I84 CORRIDOR. SEEMS THE KEY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE STRENGTH THE OF RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. ENSEMBLE MEANS DAMPEN OUT THE FEATURES SO FOR NOW WE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF AS WE RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL. CONSENSUS INCREASES FOR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WHICH FOR LATER OCTOBER...AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID 30S. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/THU FOR KPOU-KPSF-KALB. WHILE AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE PREVALENT...CIGS WERE ABOVE FLIGHT THRESHOLDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSE TO KGFL...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS MAY ALSO IMPACT KALB-KPSF AS WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND VCSH RESPECTFULLY. GENERALLY...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT RATHER DIFFUSE. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT... AND THEN DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A BETTERCHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT. RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GJM NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM SHORT TERM...GJM LONG TERM...BGM/WASULA AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...GJM/11 HYDROLOGY...GJM/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DELIVER LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL YIELD MILDER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FRI AND SAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 7 PM UPDATE... MID/HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL OVERSPREAD REST OF AREA BY MIDNIGHT. BEFORE THAT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THIS EVENING DUE TO DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS...BEFORE CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING SW WINDS CAUSE WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODIFIED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THIS TREND. GFS LAMP SHOWS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN FOR TEMPS TO HOLD IN MID 30S ACROSS DEEPER VALLEYS OF WESTERN MA...PRIMARILY NEAR ORANGE...AS OPPOSED TO WARMING OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE THAT IS GOING TO BE CASE GIVEN CLOUDINESS ALREADY ON DOORSTEP...BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPS. DO NOT BELIEVE THERE IS MUCH OF AN ICING THREAT OVERNIGHT SHOULD ANY LIGHT PRECIP OCCUR. LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN NY...WHICH IT KEEPS TO OUR N OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WARM ADVECTION CAUSES ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NY...WHICH COULD AFFECT MUCH OF MA...N CT AND RI TOWARD DAYBREAK. DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS BUT IF IT OCCURS WOULD ONLY EXPECT SPRINKLES OR BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER FROM MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY... STRONG LOW LEVEL WSW JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT WINDS ALOFT MIXING TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS POTENTIAL UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. EVENTUALLY WARMING ALOFT INCREASES RESULTING IN LESS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES FOR MIXING. THUS STRONGEST WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY THEN TRENDING DOWNWARD MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT G40-45KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DECIDED TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA. REALIZE WIND SPEEDS MAY FALL JUST SHY OF WIND CRITERIA HOWEVER WITH LEAVES STILL FULLY LEAVED ACROSS THIS AREA THE THRESHOLD IS LOWER FOR DOWN BRANCHES AND LIMBS. ELSEWHERE AND FARTHER INLAND WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG BUT NEVERTHELESS STILL A BREEZY/WINDY DAY. MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN TOMORROW IN THE WAA PATTERN BUT TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS 60 TO 65. VERY LOW RISK OF A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW IN THE WAA PATTERN. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS. TUE NIGHT... BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS 1030 MB HIGH OVER QUEBEC ADVECTS SOUTHEASTWARD. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS. SHALLOW COOL AIR LIKELY BLEEDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST MA AND POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWARD. OVERALL FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * WARMER WED/THU WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE * TURNING COOLER AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF SPLIT FLOW OVER CONUS. IN NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM CANADIAN PLAINS TO MARITIMES AND ALLOWS RIDGING TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SUN. SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS DRY WEATHER OVERALL SINCE MOISTURE IS LIMITED AHEAD OF ANY FRONTS. EXTENDED FORECAST IS LARGELY BASED UPON BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE... BUT DID ADJUST WINDS THU AND FRI TO ACCOUNT FOR MIXING. WED AND THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE. FRONT REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED BEFORE LIFTING N AS WARM FRONT THU. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING TREND BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY THU AS INCREASING SW FLOW BOOSTS TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70 IN SOME LOCATIONS THU AFTERNOON. DO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER CT AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN BUT RIGHT NOW CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE CLOUDINESS SHOULD DOMINATE. MAY NEED TO EDGE UP HIGHS THU IN LATER FORECASTS THOUGH. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS EXPECTED EITHER DAY...EVEN WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING THU AFTERNOON. 12Z ENSEMBLES ONLY HAVE LOW PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER DYNAMICS STAY TO OUR N. 12Z MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN WAY OF RAINFALL EITHER WITH SW FLOW IN PLACE... ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DOES STRENGTHEN A BIT AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THU EVENING. KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN MA WED/THU AND NEAR CAPE COD LATE THU/THU NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. FRI INTO SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ALONG WITH BANDS OF OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS NEAR CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN 50S AND LOWS IN 30S/40S. SUN INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS REGION SUN WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT. AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO TAP INTO SO ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS AT BEST SUN. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE MON MORNING FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM GREAT LAKES. HIGHS WARM BACK INTO 50S/LOWER 60S SUN AHEAD OF FRONT THEN BACK INTO 50S MON. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 7 PM UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. VFR WITH CIGS AOA 080 TONIGHT. MAY SEE SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO WET GROUND. ANY SHOWERS TUE/TUE NIGHT CONFINED TO NORTHERN MA. MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS REMAIN DRY. STRONG LOW LEVEL WSW JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 06Z-18Z TUE. WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE COULD REACH 40 KT OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH LESS WIND INLAND. GIVEN GOOD MIXING ALONG THE COAST NOT EXPECTING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS A RIBBON OF 45 KT WSW WINDS AT 2-3KFT WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST 06Z-18Z TUE. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE 08Z-11Z TUE. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE. WED...VFR. THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30KT. FRI...VFR. N/NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT. SAT...VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TONIGHT... WSW WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH SW GALES POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS. THUS GALE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED. ELSEWHERE WINDS INCREASING 20 TO 30 KT. OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES LATE DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY PREVAIL. TUE... SW GALES POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE. OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES LATE DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY PREVAIL. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY. TUE NIGHT... WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE WATERS. OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES LATE DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY PREVAIL. OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA WED AS FRONT SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RESULTS IN LIGHT E FLOW. HOWEVER INCREASING S/SW FLOW GETS UNDERWAY THU AS FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED DUE TO 25-30KT GUSTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 5-7 FT. PATTERN FAVORS STEEP WAVES ON NEARSHORE WATERS SUCH AS BUZZARDS BAY AND VINEYARD SOUND AGAINST OUTGOING TIDE...AND ON CAPE COD BAY FROM INCOMING TIDE. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS EXPECTED WED/THU WITH EITHER FRONT... PROBABLY JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MOST. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED FRI INTO SAT MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING SCA CONDITIONS WITH 25KT GUSTS AND 4-6 FT SEAS OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH SAT AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ022>024. RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR RIZ008. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231>235-237-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/JWD NEAR TERM...NOCERA/JWD SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...JWD AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD MARINE...NOCERA/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1013 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION PLUS SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ADVECTING INTO SOUTH GEORGIA FROM THE ATLANTIC MAY GET INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM TIME- HEIGHT DISPLAYS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DESPITE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY SO BELIEVE FOG WILL BE LIMITED AND THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY LOW PROBABILITIES FROM THE SREF GUIDANCE PLUS THE NAM AND GFS MOS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA TO POSE LITTLE TO NO RAIN THREAT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONTROLLING THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE MAKING IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERALLY KEEP THINGS DRY IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S MONDAY...AND IN THE 60S TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL IN THE THE 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA (FA)...AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT VERY SLIGHTLY NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA...INCLUDING GREATER CAE AND AGS...BUT SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT RECOVERY NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA INCLUDING OGB. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE AREA OF STRATOCU OFFSHORE AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE S SC COASTAL PLAIN AND SE GA. MODELS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD DRIFT INLAND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME OF IT COULD DISSIPATE AS IT DRIFTS INLAND. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN FA AND TOWARDS THE COAST. LATEST HRRR MODELS SUGGESTS SUCH...THOUGH OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE NOT AS BULLISH. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS GREATEST THREAT OF REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG...OR ANY STRATUS...WILL BE AT OGB...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MVFR POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. AFTER ANY MORNING RESTRICTIONS...VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SCT CU/SCU WITH BASES ABOVE VFR LEVEL. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
938 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT COULD AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. NUDGED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN 1-2 DEGS WEST OF HWY 17 IN UPPER CHARLESTON COUNTY AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE...1027 HPA...CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS WILL HOLD ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA TONIGHT. A BROAD EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF STRATOCUMULUS ONSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY OVER COASTAL GEORGIA...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME. THE LATEST NAM AND RAP SHOW A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT ARE STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 20/12Z GEM CLOUD COVER PRODUCT. HAVE LOWERED CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS...BUT STILL SHOW SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A HILTON HEAD-LUDOWICI LINE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WEAK ISENTROPIC ASSENT ENSUES. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL INLAND. WEAK ISENTROPIC 295-300K ASSENT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AFTER 2-3 AM...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH INLAND PENETRATION OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DOES APPROACH THE GEORGIA BEACHES...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE CONFINED IN THOSE ZONES WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO LINGER JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ADVECT AMPLE MOISTURE IN TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. MODELS SHIFTED THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE COAST BOTH OF THESE DAYS, SO ADJUSTED POPS UPWARDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO REFLECT THIS. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS, BUT NOT A COMPLETE WASHOUT. FRIDAY THE COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL (IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S), THEN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHOULD DRIVE A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN SUBSIDENCE...LIMITED MOISTURE AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL. ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER WITH SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS... CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THEN NORTHWEST AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR. COULD SEE A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND...BUT SUSPECT ANY CIGS THAT ARE ESTABLISHED WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY... ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL. && .MARINE... TONIGHT...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN PLACE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND A SOLID 5 FT FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. A SEPARATE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO PREVAIL FAR OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS AND AN ELONGATED BUT WEAK COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE WILL CREATE A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A NORTHEAST MODERATE BREEZE (AROUND 15 KT). WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE SHOULD REACH THE STRENGTH OF A FRESH BREEZE (AROUND 20 KT). THESE STRONGER WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LONG FETCH POINTED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL ALLOW LARGER WAVES TO BUILD. THESE WAVES WILL PROPAGATE INTO OUR WATERS, MAINTAINING ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OR POSSIBLY FRIDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS COULD BUILD TO 6 FT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HELD OFF ON ISSUING ONE WITH THIS PACKAGE BECAUSE THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY POSSIBLE IN THE WAVE HEIGHTS, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OFFSHORE AND THE ORIENTATION THE BEST FETCH TOWARDS THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WEAKENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOWING BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND DOWNWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN BRIEFLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEFORE THEY COULD START DETERIORATING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
721 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION PLUS SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ADVECTING INTO SOUTH GEORGIA FROM THE ATLANTIC MAY GET INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM TIME- HEIGHT DISPLAYS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DESPITE THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY SO BELIEVE FOG WILL BE LIMITED AND THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY LOW PROBABILITIES FROM THE SREF GUIDANCE PLUS THE NAM AND GFS MOS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA TO POSE LITTLE TO NO RAIN THREAT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONTROLLING THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE MAKING IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERALLY KEEP THINGS DRY IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S MONDAY...AND IN THE 60S TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL IN THE THE 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA (FA)...AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT VERY SLIGHTLY NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA...INCLUDING GREATER CAE AND AGS...BUT SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT RECOVERY NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA INCLUDING OGB. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE AREA OF STRATOCU OFFSHORE AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE S SC COASTAL PLAIN AND SE GA. MODELS AND SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD DRIFT INLAND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME OF IT COULD DISSIPATE AS IT DRIFTS INLAND. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN FA AND TOWARDS THE COAST. LATEST HRRR MODELS SUGGESTS SUCH...THOUGH OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE NOT AS BULLISH. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS GREATEST THREAT OF REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG...OR ANY STRATUS...WILL BE AT OGB...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MVFR POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. AFTER ANY MORNING RESTRICTIONS...VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SCT CU/SCU WITH BASES ABOVE VFR LEVEL. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
843 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 843 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Going to have to boost PoPs, at least a little, across much of the forecast area tonight. A MCV from a pesky convective complex is currently tracking east across northern Illinois. Some enhanced forcing trailing from this MCV, along with a developing nocturnal low-level jet, is increasing shower development over the western portion of the forecast area. This development is likely to track east along with the MCV, although a the airmass is drier and low- level jet weaker as you head east. Despite the higher PoPs, the overall rainfall should be minimal due to the very dry low-level airmass across central Illinois. Other tweaks to forecast will be minor. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1030mb high centered over the southeast CONUS and a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the Northern Plains. Between these two features...strong southwesterly winds will continue to transport warm air into Illinois tonight. Latest satellite/radar composite shows remnants of convective cluster that formed along the nose of a low-level jet late last night over northwest Missouri now crossing the Mississippi River just north of Quincy. These showers will continue to track northeastward over the next few hours, mainly impacting locations northwest of the Illinois River. As the nocturnal LLJ once again strengthens from eastern Kansas to northern Illinois tonight, additional showers will develop across north-central Illinois. Both the NAM and HRRR suggest the northern half of the KILX CWA could potentially see showers, so will carry a slight chance PoP across this area accordingly. Further south will maintain a dry forecast. Due to increasing cloud cover and a continued southerly wind of 10- 15 mph, overnight low temperatures will be considerably warmer than in recent nights. Readings will range from the upper 40s near the Indiana border, to the middle to upper 50s along/west of I-55. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Breezy southwest winds will continue Wednesday as high pressure remains off the central Atlantic coastline and low pressure moves eastward through the northern Great Lakes area. Sustained SW winds around 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph can be expected. A frontal boundary trailing the low will bring at least a slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms settling southward through central IL Wednesday evening through Thursday as moisture advects northward from the Gulf in southerly flow ahead of the boundary. Warm conditions will precede the front...with highs reaching around 80 degrees throughout central IL Wednesday...lowering several degrees from I-72 northward for Thursday. To the south...little cooling will take place as the front stalls out and weakens in that vicinity. Highs mainly in the low to mid 70s will follow for Friday and Saturday. Next chance for precipitation will take place Friday into Saturday as models coming into fairly good agreement tracking a surface low into the upper Midwest by Friday evening...with precipitation moving into western Illinois by Friday afternoon. General model trend has been to move this system in faster over the past few days...with the latest runs continuing to speed up the system...although the run-to- run differences are not dramatic as of the 12Z run. Timing of the cold front associated with this system...combined with forecast instability ahead of the front still supports a chance for thunderstorms Saturday...especially toward the southern and eastern portions of Illinois. Cooler and dry conditions will follow the front for Sunday through Tuesday...except for possibly a few showers lingering in SE Illinois Sunday. Highs should drop back to near normal for central/SE Illinois...with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows generally in the low 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Breezy south to southwest winds will persist across the central Illinois terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time, with the most gusty winds occurring near peak heating on Wednesday. Some LLWS is possible tonight, most likely at KPIA, with the nocturnal subsiding of the gusty surface winds. VFR conditions will prevail through the period with mainly mid level CIGS expected tonight into Wednesday morning. A few sprinkles can`t be ruled out, again especially at KPIA, but no significant rainfall is anticipated. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BAK SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Onton AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
646 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1030mb high centered over the southeast CONUS and a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the Northern Plains. Between these two features...strong southwesterly winds will continue to transport warm air into Illinois tonight. Latest satellite/radar composite shows remnants of convective cluster that formed along the nose of a low-level jet late last night over northwest Missouri now crossing the Mississippi River just north of Quincy. These showers will continue to track northeastward over the next few hours, mainly impacting locations northwest of the Illinois River. As the nocturnal LLJ once again strengthens from eastern Kansas to northern Illinois tonight, additional showers will develop across north-central Illinois. Both the NAM and HRRR suggest the northern half of the KILX CWA could potentially see showers, so will carry a slight chance PoP across this area accordingly. Further south will maintain a dry forecast. Due to increasing cloud cover and a continued southerly wind of 10- 15 mph, overnight low temperatures will be considerably warmer than in recent nights. Readings will range from the upper 40s near the Indiana border, to the middle to upper 50s along/west of I-55. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Breezy southwest winds will continue Wednesday as high pressure remains off the central Atlantic coastline and low pressure moves eastward through the northern Great Lakes area. Sustained SW winds around 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph can be expected. A frontal boundary trailing the low will bring at least a slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms settling southward through central IL Wednesday evening through Thursday as moisture advects northward from the Gulf in southerly flow ahead of the boundary. Warm conditions will precede the front...with highs reaching around 80 degrees throughout central IL Wednesday...lowering several degrees from I-72 northward for Thursday. To the south...little cooling will take place as the front stalls out and weakens in that vicinity. Highs mainly in the low to mid 70s will follow for Friday and Saturday. Next chance for precipitation will take place Friday into Saturday as models coming into fairly good agreement tracking a surface low into the upper Midwest by Friday evening...with precipitation moving into western Illinois by Friday afternoon. General model trend has been to move this system in faster over the past few days...with the latest runs continuing to speed up the system...although the run-to- run differences are not dramatic as of the 12Z run. Timing of the cold front associated with this system...combined with forecast instability ahead of the front still supports a chance for thunderstorms Saturday...especially toward the southern and eastern portions of Illinois. Cooler and dry conditions will follow the front for Sunday through Tuesday...except for possibly a few showers lingering in SE Illinois Sunday. Highs should drop back to near normal for central/SE Illinois...with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows generally in the low 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Breezy south to southwest winds will persist across the central Illinois terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time, with the most gusty winds occurring near peak heating on Wednesday. Some LLWS is possible tonight, most likely at KPIA, with the nocturnal subsiding of the gusty surface winds. VFR conditions will prevail through the period with mainly mid level CIGS expected tonight into Wednesday morning. A few sprinkles can`t be ruled out, again especially at KPIA, but no significant rainfall is anticipated. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Onton AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1232 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 Going forecast is largely on track. Dry air is allowing temperatures to rise nicely. VAD wind profile from our radar is showing 35-40 knots at an elevation of 1500-2000 feet, and this is mixing down with the abundant sunshine. Wind gusts across the northern third of the forecast area are already starting to approach 30 mph, with a 35 mph gusts observed on the 9 am observation from Bloomington. Recent update mainly adjusted high temperatures up a degree or two across the western CWA. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 Fire weather concerns highlight the short term. Increasing winds under a tightening pressure gradient will be the controlling factor as to what counties are included in a Red Flag Warning for extreme fire weather conditions. Very low RH and dry fuels will be present in all of our forecast area this afternoon, but the strongest winds of 15-25 mph gusting to 30 mph will be mainly confined to our western and northern counties. We upgraded all of the counties that were in a Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning, and added additional counties across the north. This includes our counties NW of the IL river, with the addition of Woodford, Tazewell and McLean counties. The dry airmass will preclude much in the way of cloud cover, with full sun aiding in producing a deep mixing layer to tap into the strong mid-level winds. Temperatures today will begin an upward trend, as brisk southwest winds usher milder conditions into IL. Highs should top out 7 to 10F deg warmer than yesterday, with readings in the upper 60s southeast of I-70, and low to mid 70s west of I-55. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 Surface high pressure sliding to the east will leave the Midwest in more southerly flow, continuing the unseasonably warm days. Central Illinois will see max temps in the 70s tomorrow...and through the mid to upper 70s by Wednesday, with some locations in the lower 80s. Deep upper low passing over Hudson Bay Mon-Tues dragging a front across the Midwest. Models continue to introduce some precip to the northwestern portions of the state. Have started trending in some chance pops nw of the Illinois River Valley this morning for overnight Tuesday...but in general, the front is not quite overrun with precip. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are hinting at some scattered activity along the boundary...most of it to the north. Front is starting to slow somewhat in the push through the region...and some sct activity lingering into Wednesday in the models. Have kept the forecast somewhat conservative for now, keeping to slights during the work week. Cooler temperatures follow for the end of the week behind the front. Beyond that, the desert SW low finally kicks out and through the Midwest bringing the best precip chances in the forecast for this weekend...Friday night and Saturday. Depending on the location of the boundary in the Midwest for Saturday`s max heat of the day, may need to introduce some scattered thunder for Saturday afternoon in the next couple runs. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 Main concern through the TAF period will be with the winds. Gusts the last couple hours have been consistently in the 30 knot range from KBMI-KCMI, and bit more sporadic at KDEC. A lot of the higher gusts aloft have mixed down already with the sunshine, per the Lincoln Doppler radar wind profile, so the highest gusts should persist a couple more hours. Currently looking like early to mid evening before the winds settle down appreciably, but they should remain sustained around 10 knots or so through the night. Have introduced another round of LLWS at KPIA/KBMI tonight, as the lower level jet sets up from northern Missouri to southern Lake Michigan. LLWS conditions a bit more borderline at the TAF sites further south, so will hold off mention for now. Am expecting the gusts to pick up again late Tuesday morning, although likely not as high as now as there will be some cloud cover to stifle some of the mixing. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 Have expanded the Red Flag Warning a row of counties southward, now extending from Havana through Lincoln to Champaign and Danville. Highest wind gusts at midday are near Champaign with persistent gusts 30-35 mph. Wind speed criteria is a bit borderline further west toward Lincoln, but humidity levels will be dipping below 25% soon. PREVIOUS UPDATE AT 956 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 Already starting to see wind gusts of 25-30 mph across the northern third of the forecast area, with gusts around 35 mph in Bloomington. The pressure gradient will remain tight through the afternoon, keeping the winds gusting over 30 mph across the northern half of the forecast area. Latest HRRR and RAP guidance suggest the highest winds will be through early afternoon as the core of the low level jet gets mixed toward the surface. Dew points in the upper 20s to lower 30s already, and some modest increase is possible west of I-55 this afternoon, but significantly warmer temperatures will offset that and humidity values should be 20-25%. No changes anticipated to the Red Flag Warning at this time, with the alignment set based on the location of the highest winds. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>046. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Shimon LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Geelhart FIRE WEATHER...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
956 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 Going forecast is largely on track. Dry air is allowing temperatures to rise nicely. VAD wind profile from our radar is showing 35-40 knots at an elevation of 1500-2000 feet, and this is mixing down with the abundant sunshine. Wind gusts across the northern third of the forecast area are already starting to approach 30 mph, with a 35 mph gusts observed on the 9 am observation from Bloomington. Recent update mainly adjusted high temperatures up a degree or two across the western CWA. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 Fire weather concerns highlight the short term. Increasing winds under a tightening pressure gradient will be the controlling factor as to what counties are included in a Red Flag Warning for extreme fire weather conditions. Very low RH and dry fuels will be present in all of our forecast area this afternoon, but the strongest winds of 15-25 mph gusting to 30 mph will be mainly confined to our western and northern counties. We upgraded all of the counties that were in a Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning, and added additional counties across the north. This includes our counties NW of the IL river, with the addition of Woodford, Tazewell and McLean counties. The dry airmass will preclude much in the way of cloud cover, with full sun aiding in producing a deep mixing layer to tap into the strong mid-level winds. Temperatures today will begin an upward trend, as brisk southwest winds usher milder conditions into IL. Highs should top out 7 to 10F deg warmer than yesterday, with readings in the upper 60s southeast of I-70, and low to mid 70s west of I-55. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 Surface high pressure sliding to the east will leave the Midwest in more southerly flow, continuing the unseasonably warm days. Central Illinois will see max temps in the 70s tomorrow...and through the mid to upper 70s by Wednesday, with some locations in the lower 80s. Deep upper low passing over Hudson Bay Mon-Tues dragging a front across the Midwest. Models continue to introduce some precip to the northwestern portions of the state. Have started trending in some chance pops nw of the Illinois River Valley this morning for overnight Tuesday...but in general, the front is not quite overrun with precip. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are hinting at some scattered activity along the boundary...most of it to the north. Front is starting to slow somewhat in the push through the region...and some sct activity lingering into Wednesday in the models. Have kept the forecast somewhat conservative for now, keeping to slights during the work week. Cooler temperatures follow for the end of the week behind the front. Beyond that, the desert SW low finally kicks out and through the Midwest bringing the best precip chances in the forecast for this weekend...Friday night and Saturday. Depending on the location of the boundary in the Midwest for Saturday`s max heat of the day, may need to introduce some scattered thunder for Saturday afternoon in the next couple runs. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 VFR conditions are expected thru tonight. The main concern will be with the strong southerly winds today. Still looking at a period of LLWS early through 14z this morning before winds increase. After 15z, sustained winds should climb to 15 to 20 kts, with some gusts up to 30 kts at times late this morning through mid afternoon. The gusty south to southwest winds will gradually subside after 02z Tue with sustained winds ranging from 10 to 15 kts overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 Already starting to see wind gusts of 25-30 mph across the northern third of the forecast area, with gusts around 35 mph in Bloomington. The pressure gradient will remain tight through the afternoon, keeping the winds gusting over 30 mph across the northern half of the forecast area. Latest HRRR and RAP guidance suggest the highest winds will be through early afternoon as the core of the low level jet gets mixed toward the surface. Dew points in the upper 20s to lower 30s already, and some modest increase is possible west of I-55 this afternoon, but significantly warmer temperatures will offset that and humidity values should be 20-25%. No changes anticipated to the Red Flag Warning at this time, with the alignment set based on the location of the highest winds. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031- 036>038-040. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Shimon LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Shimon FIRE WEATHER...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
903 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 836 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 REST OF THIS EVE INTO EARLY OVRNGT WILL SEE CONTINUED DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM W TO E... AS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE MIGRATES EASTWARD. SYSTEM DEPOSITED 1-3 INCH RAIN TOTALS OVER PORTIONS OF IOWA...JOHNSON...MUSCATINE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES ALONG WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL PEA TO NEAR PENNY SIZE. MLI FINALLY SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 31 DAYS TYING FOR THE 7TH LONGEST DRY STREAK ON RECORD. IN WAKE OF SYSTEM... MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG OVRNGT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED MINS TNGT DOWN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS MAINLY NORTH HALF OF CWA WHERE CURRENT TEMPS IN A FEW LOCATIONS ARE AT OR JUST BELOW FCST LOWS DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR. OTHERWISE...WATCHING ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH KS. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO GET SHUTTLED UP OVER THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VLY NEXT 24 HRS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER RIDGE. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALSO HINTED AT BY LATEST RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP ... THUS HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHC/ISOLD COVERAGE WORDING FOR LATER TNGT SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES. THESE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING DAY ON WEDNESDAY ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE... AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD SHOWERS FOR NOW... BUT TRENDS AND FORCING WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH IF MORE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THEN THESE COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK 850MB LOW IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A LLJ RAN FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. SATELLITE TRENDS HAS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND THERE IS SOME THUNDER EMBEDDED WITH THE CONVECTION. 18Z SFC DATA HAS A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND A WEAK LOW IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS WERE IN 30S ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH 40S AND 50S FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR DATA AND TRENDS FROM THE RAP...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS DECREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. ON WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH NO APPARENT TRIGGER OR FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT ARE COMING FROM THE WEST WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK. THUS WILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES. ONE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER EITHER. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE TWO CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE FIRST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND THE OTHER WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA AT THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH. AS SUCH HAVE SCHC WITH A LOW END CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIRES ARW AND NMM BOTH OF MODEL REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT. THE BOUNDARY THEN SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALLS OUT WITH A H5 RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SW ON FRIDAY AND THE SFC BOUNDARY RETURNS TO THE NORTH. A ROBUST WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE THE AREA WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. A PREFRONTAL WAVE LOOKS TO FIRE PRECIP BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN. THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WOULD SUGGEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF THERE WAS ANY INSTABILITY. THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM THIS WAVE SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM. IF FOR SOME REASON THE SFC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURNS SOONER THAN PROGGED...SLIGHT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WOULD LEAD TO A HSLC TORNADO THREAT. THIS IS A VERY LOW CHANCE...AND INGREDIENTS NEED TO MATCH UP FOR IT OCCUR...BUT NONETHELESS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AMOUNT WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND LEAD TO A DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PAST THIS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR DATA AND TRENDS FROM THE RAP...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS DECREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. ON WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH NO APPARENT TRIGGER OR FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT ARE COMING FROM THE WEST WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK. THUS WILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES. ONE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER EITHER. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE TWO CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE FIRST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND THE OTHER WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA AT THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH. AS SUCH HAVE SCHC WITH A LOW END CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIRES ARW AND NMM BOTH OF MODEL REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT. THE BOUNDARY THEN SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALLS OUT WITH A H5 RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SW ON FRIDAY AND THE SFC BOUNDARY RETURNS TO THE NORTH. A ROBUST WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE THE AREA WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. A PREFRONTAL WAVE LOOKS TO FIRE PRECIP BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN. THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WOULD SUGGEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF THERE WAS ANY INSTABILITY. THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM THIS WAVE SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM. IF FOR SOME REASON THE SFC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURNS SOONER THAN PROGGED...SLIGHT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WOULD LEAD TO A HSLC TORNADO THREAT. THIS IS A VERY LOW CHANCE...AND INGREDIENTS NEED TO MATCH UP FOR IT OCCUR...BUT NONETHELESS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AMOUNT WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND LEAD TO A DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PAST THIS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE EXITING KCID SHORTLY AND CONTINUE TO AFFECT KDBQ AND KMLI THIS EVENING. KBRL LOOKS TO BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE AND WHILE A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT... PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW FOR MENTION THERE ATTIM BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF NEEDED. CONDITIONS IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL DROP TO MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING LATE EVENING WITH RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. LATE TONIGHT ANTICIPATE SOME FOG POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY AT TAF SITES WHICH RECEIVED RAIN... AND FOR NOW HAVE ADDED TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY 09Z-13Z AT ALL SITES BUT KBRL. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLD PM SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...05 SYNOPSIS...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...GIBBS AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1139 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND ALONG CO/KS BORDER. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS DEEPENED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH SW GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA. A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF KMCK AND TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT-MONDAY...WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN PASSING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE ELSE. GFS DOES SHOW A LITTLE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR NORTH. DRY MOISTURE PROFILES BELOW THESE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER EVEN WITH GFS WOULD LIKELY BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WEST AND SHIFT TO SW FLOW ALOFT. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS A RESULT AND WINDS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER COMPARED TO TODAY. A VERY SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN COMPLICATION WILL BE THICKNESS/COVERAGE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER. CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITHIN SW FLOW...SO AT THIS TIME ANTICIPATED IMPACT ON HIGHS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE CUT OFF SYSTEM IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT FINALLY LIFTS OUT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OCCURRING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. 48-HOUR QPF TOTALS ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY ARE ACTUALLY QUITE SIMILAR FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND 0.50 TO 1 INCH GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. A FAVORABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH IN MID LEVELS AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE LOWER LEVELS RESULT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL LEADING UP TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...024 AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
320 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF KENTUCKY WITH A RELATIVELY LOOSE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT TIGHTER AS YOU GO NORTHWEST TOWARD MUCH LOWER PRESSURE. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT THE SKIES CLEAR TODAY AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE READINGS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S YIELDING HUMIDITIES DOWN IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH IS KEEPING WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT...THE DEEP MIXING IS BRINGING DOWN SOME OCCASIONAL SOUTH SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL DEPICT FLAT AND BROAD RIDGING SPREADING OVER THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY WEAK ENERGY WILL DRIFT PAST EASTERN KENTUCKY AMID THOSE HIGHER HEIGHTS. THE PATTERN DOES START TO CHANGE AFTER THE SHORT TERM WITH A DEVELOPING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. AGAIN FAVORED THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER DETAILS GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AGAIN...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE MODERATING HIGH DEPARTING THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH SIMILAR LOW RH CONCERNS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT MORE...AS WELL...RUNNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS LOW RH AND INCREASING WIND CONCERN IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MILDER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STILL A LARGE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG NEAR DAWN. AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ONCE AGAIN ZEROED THEM OUT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD... IN LINE WITH ALL GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...PROVIDING A PLEASANT STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER. STILL WATCHING FOR SOME VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE...BUT GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS LEADING UP TO WEDNESDAY...ANY WIND COULD POSE A FIRE DANGER. PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO. A COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN MOISTURE STARVED AND POSE NO THREAT TO OUR WEATHER OUTSIDE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SKY COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SOUTH WAVE CROSSING TEXAS ON SATURDAY. WHILE ITS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THESE TWO WAVES WILL INTERACT AS THEY MOVE EAST...IT DOES APPEAR THESE WAVES WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT RAIN CHANCES AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON BEST RAIN CHANCES COMING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED UPWARDS FOR THESE TWO PERIODS. THE FRONT COULD HANG UP OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. ANY RAIN WILL BE WELCOME AFTER THE EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...AND SHOULD HOPEFULLY HELP BRING A TEMPORARY END TO ANY FIRE DANGER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. AS THE HIGH TRANSITIONS EAST OF OUR REGION INTO TUESDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TILT...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN UNDER 5 KNOTS MOST PLACES. PATCHY FOG IS FORECASTED...BUT JUST FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...LATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
128 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION THIS EVENING. THIS HIGH HAS BROUGHT CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A DRY AIRMASS. WITH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR IN MANY CASES A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD END UP SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT IF NOT A DEGREE LOWER ACROSS SOME OF THE THE EASTERN VALLEYS. THE RIDGETOPS SHOULD END UP A A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO AN ANTICIPATED MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST IS ALSO ANTICIPATED. ACCORDINGLY...THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 TO 9 AM EDT ON MONDAY. A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG RIVERS OR LAKES SHOULD ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL. OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY. THIS HAS KEPT THE CLOUDS AT BAY TODAY AND ALSO THE WINDS LIGHT. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT DID MIX DOWN BETTER THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S. WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S RH VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO SERVE WELL FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP OFF THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A BROAD AND FLATTENING RIDGE EASES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. SOME WEAK ENERGY WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT IN A RISING HEIGHT ENVIRONMENT THIS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT WHILE ALSO FAVORING THE GFS CO-OP MOS...TO A CERTAIN EXTENT...FOR SITE SPECIFIC LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH A LARGER RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT DEVELOPING AROUND SUNSET AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE VALLEYS BY DAWN ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE OUR FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...DO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BATCH OF PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE RIVERS AND LAKES ACROSS THE CWA TOWARD DAWN. WITH THE MODERATING SFC HIGH DOMINATING THE WX SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS THE HIGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY OPENING UP A LARGER RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT BUT ALSO TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LOWS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE FOUND ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS MONDAY MORNING. STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ONCE AGAIN ZEROED THEM OUT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...IN LINE WITH ALL GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 70 THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT FOR THIS WEEK WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE RH`S INTO THE TEENS. RH WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MORE LOW RH`S COULD RETURN. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO LIMIT OVERALL WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 10 MPH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY HAVE SOME IFR OR LOWER REDUCTIONS IN FOG BETWEEN 8Z AND 13Z OR SO...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES. THUS...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL ALSO LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JP/JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
936 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 LATEST UPDATE... UPDATE/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREA WILL ALSO SEE CHANCES OF RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER THREAT OF RAIN WILL COME IN ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 I INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO 80 PCT OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA AS THE CONVECTIVE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF IOWA HEADS TOWARD SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. ALREADY THE PRECIPITATION ECHOES ARE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF LITTLE SABLE POINT...OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE SHORTWAVE IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. I ALSO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES TILL MIDNIGHT AS SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY DOES NOW GET INTO THOSE COUNTIES (23Z RAP MODEL). EVEN THROUGH THE RAP MODEL SHOWS AREA OF 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE 10 PM TO 2 AM TIME FRAME...IT ALSO KILLS THE LOW LEVEL JET ASSOICATED WITH THAT CONVECTIVE VORT AS IT MOVES TOWARD MICHIGAN. IN SO DOING IT ALSO KILLS THE PRECIPITATION TOO. SINCE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS GOOD AND THE SYSTEM STILL LOOKS GOOD ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES I AM GOING WITH THE SYSTEM HOLDING TOGETHER ANYWAY. THUS I KEEP THE 60 TO 70 PCT POP NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96 GOING TILL 8 AM. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 OUR MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING RAIN TRENDS AND THUNDER CHCS THROUGH WED NIGHT. WE HAVE A COUPLE OF NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ONE IS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER THAT IS MOVING EAST...AND DIMINISHING. ANOTHER IS BETWEEN I-96 AND I-94 THAT IS COMING FROM THE CHICAGO AREA AND SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE ARE EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS TO TREND DOWN BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND BRINGING A LULL IN PCPN FOR A FEW HOURS. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF WED MORNING. THERE IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE THAT WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WAVE NOW ACROSS NRN MO. THE RAIN SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AND THE CHC OF THUNDER IS QUITE LOW ONCE AGAIN WITH ELEVATED LI/S ONLY JUST A SHADE BELOW ZERO C. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE WAVE OF RAIN WED MORNING MOVES OUT. SLIGHTLY BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES IN WED...JUSTIFYING THE CHC OF THUNDER AT THAT TIME. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER HEALTHY SURGE IN MOISTURE MOVE IN LATE WED AFTERNOON AND WED EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN SURGE WITH THE LLJ THAT WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING IN WED NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A GOOD CHC OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING. WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR MOVE IN FOR THU ALONG WITH COOLER AIR. RAIN SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z THU. SOME FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPR RIDGE SHOWN TO BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT SINCE THE SFC DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30S DUE TO THE DRY EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. VIRGA/SPRINKLES WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS PRECEDING THE FRONT STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST SINCE LITTLE TO NO MU CAPE IS PROGGED. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST CWFA ON SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND SFC RIDGING BRINGS DECREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOLER SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY. AFTER DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. RAIN COVERAGE/AMOUNTS LOOK LIMITED AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS WILL THE SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE. BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE BAND NEAR I-94 WILL MOVE OUT SOON BUT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER IOWA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN BY 06Z AND THAT SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND IFR VSBY. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOSTLY IMPACTS THE GRR AND MKG TAF SITES. THE AIR BELOW 8000 FT REMAINS VERY DRY SO CIGS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY VFR BUT VSBY MAY WELL GO IFR AT TIMES WHILE THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. ONCE IT MOVES THROUGH... THERE SHOULD BE A QUIET PERIOD FOR SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BUILD WAVES TO 3 TO 5 FEET NORTH OF HOLLAND WEDNESDAY. I SAW NO REASON TO WAIT TO ISSUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SINCE APX ALREADY HAS ONE OUT...SO IT IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING NORTH OF HOLLAND. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 RIVERS ARE RUNNING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. A STRIPE OF BASIN-AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER A QUARTER INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. NEITHER RAIN EVENT IS ANTICIPATED TO CREATE A FLOOD RISK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ846>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...NJJ SHORT TERM...NJJ LONG TERM...MEADE AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...CAS MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
749 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BRISK N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN ONTARIO HAVE SUPPORTED A PERSISTENT PATCH OF UPSLOPE STRATOCU OVER BARAGA COUNTY AND THE NW HALF OF MQT COUNTY. WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS SAGGING SOUTH OF MNM COUNTY AND NRN LAKE MI...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OVER SCNTRL FCST AREA. TONIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA TONIGHT...850MB WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF MODELS INDICATES BETTER ISENTROPIC MOIST ASCENT WL STAY SE OF THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE NW OF THE FCST AREA AS NOTED ON 700-300 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS STILL ARGUES FOR TWO AREAS OF DEVELOPING PCPN TO SPLIT SE AND NW OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH MODEL QPF GUIDANCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY CARRY SCHC POPS TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL BE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH 150M 12 HR 5H HEIGHT FALLS FCST BY MODELS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY WED EVENING. THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE NORTH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG THE SHORTWAVE TRACK AND AGAIN THE BETTER MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN SE OF THE FCST AREA. THIS SPLIT IN FORCING WILL WORK TO KEEP RAIN SHOWERS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONALLY...BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...MODELS ADVERTISE A RISE/FALL COUPLET WHICH WILL AID GUSTY W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES DESTABILIZATION AND MIXING. THIS COULD ALL LEAD TO GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER NW MARQUETTE COUNTY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 EXITING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM THE W FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CROSSING THE CWA THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF INCREASED WIND EVENTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. STEADY SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT E UPPER MI WEDNESDAY EVENING. PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN OR LESS AT 00Z THURSDAY OVER THE W HALF...WITH 1IN VALUES EXITING FAR E. NW FLOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE IN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW OVER FAR NE LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z AND THE DRAGGING COLD FRONT EXITS JUST E OF THE CWA...WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E WITH WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY THE SFC LOW WILL BE JUST S OF JAMES BAY AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE E OF LAKE HURON. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY TROUGH WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z THURSDAY...PROLONGING THE WNW WINDS A BIT LONGER. 850MB TEMPS OF -1 TO -3C THURSDAY MORNING WITH THESE UPSLOPE/LAKESHORE CONVERGENT WINDS WILL KEEP LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE SET UP FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH IA AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS TAKING HOLD OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA BY 06Z FRIDAY...THEN EXIT E AS THE 500MB RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BEHIND THE HIGH AS A DEEPENING LOW NEARS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE LOW TO SLIDE ACROSS MN FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS OR JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z SATURDAY. A WIDESPREAD 0.1 TO 0.3IN OF RAIN LOOKS LIKELY...STILL WITH THE BULK OF PRECIP FALLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS OF MOISTURE TO LINGER BEHIND THE LOW...AS THE 500MB TROUGH SET UP ACROSS MN AT 12Z SATURDAY MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE OVER BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH POSSIBLY SHIFTING IN FROM THE NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 KIWD/KCMX...WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. UNCERTAINTY MAINLY EXISTS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXTENT OF LOWERING CIGS. KSAW...WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS SE FLOW PULLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. DO NOT THINK THAT FOG WILL RESULT AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST...BUT LOW STRATUS SHOULD FORM. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXTENT OF LOWEST CIGS AND FOG POTENTIAL. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NE WINDS IN THE 15- 30KT RANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...STRONGEST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TONIGHT/WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES. THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30KT ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON WED. A LOW PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF AND PASS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAVORABLY ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE TIP AND IN THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WL INCLUDE A GALE WARNING FOR LSZ264>266 FOR THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW WED NIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE FRI/SAT AS ANOTHER LOW PRES TROF SWEEPS THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ264>266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...TITUS MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
131 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE ERN NAMERICA TROF THAT DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF THE CONUS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT HAS TRACKED E TO HUDSON BAY. SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A DEEP SFC LOW AROUND 975MB OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DEEP LOW AND PRES FALLS OF 5-6MB/3HR PASSING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN STEADY S TO SW WINDS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. WAA AND WINDS HAVE PREVENTED MUCH TEMP DROP DURING THE NIGHT. EARLY MORNING TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 40F IN INTERIOR SHELTED LOCATIONS TO AROUND 50F WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONGEST. CLOSE EXAMINATION OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SOME POCKETS OF ACCAS ARE DEVELOPING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA. PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS TODAY AS SFC TROF TO THE W APPROACHES AND COLD FRONT DROPS SE THRU NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS IN CHECK TODAY...AS WILL INCREASING MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL HELP PREVENT DEEPER MIXING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL STILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE E WHERE GRADIENT SLACKENS LATEST. WITH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...GENERAL QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HINTS OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING... THERE IS SOME RISK OF -SHRA TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500+J/KG OVER THE FAR SCNTRL THIS AFTN. THE GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE MORE MODEST...UP TO 200J/KG. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WOULDN`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AN ISOLD TSTM. A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE HRRR/RAP MODELS IN CONSTRUCTING POPS FIELDS TODAY AS THOSE MODELS HAVE GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE NCAR ENSEMBLES. THIS RESULTS IN A BAND OF ISOLD -SHRA POTENTIAL STREAKING INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING...THEN SAGGING S THRU MID AFTN. ISOLD -SHRA POTENTIAL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SCNTRL DURING THE AFTN HRS. WITH A MILD START TO THE DAY...OPTED TO RAISE TEMPS A LITTLE WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 65F BEING THE RULE. IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE MORE SUN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. COLD FRONT WILL DROP S THRU THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITHOUT ANY PCPN AS FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FRONT IS FCST TO BE WNW...RESULTING IN DRYING ALOFT PRECEDING THE SFC FROPA. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA WILL EXIT EARLY IN THE EVENING AND GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN ONTARIO...A SHALLOW BUT INCREASING NNE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME LOW CLOUDS...AT LEAST IN THE UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NEAR THE LAKE TOWARD 12Z TUE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE RIDGE...ZONAL TO SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGING AND DEEP LAYER 1000-500MB DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD FROM ONTARIO ALLOWING NORTH TO EAST NORTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE TRAPPED BY AN INVERSION AROUND AROUND 2KFT TO 3KFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PLAINS LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE U.P. AND CROSS THE U.P. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THE APPROACH OF THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV...THE ONLY ISSUE WILL BE HOW THE PLAINS LOW AND THE CANADIAN LOW END UP PHASING. THE CANADIAN LOW IS NOW PROGGED BY THE EC/GFS TO PHASE WITH THE PLAINS LOW AS IT SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE BETTER INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING AS THEY BECOME IN SYNC WITH THE FAIRLY POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IF THE PHASING OCCURS AS IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY GUSTY NW WINDS OVER MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SURFACE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUD FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT...BUT IT DOES LOOK AS IF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING RAINY. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE BROAD TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS USED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU MAJORITY OF THE FCST PERIOD AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION IN FCST. PLUS...IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR...CONDITIONS WON`T FALL BLO VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE N TO NE WIND BEHIND FRONT MAY RESULT IN SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS ON TUESDAY MORNING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS E THIS MORNING AND PRES GRADIENT RELAXES THIS AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM W TO E TODAY. GALE WARNINGS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...12Z CNTRL AND 15Z E. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NE WITH WINDS RAMPING UP TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES. THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON WED. AFTER THE TROF PASSES BY LATE WED...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW...THEN DIMINISH BY LATE THU AS TRAILING HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. S WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 25KT ON FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE HIGH TO THE E AND UNDER A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...JLA MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE ERN NAMERICA TROF THAT DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF THE CONUS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT HAS TRACKED E TO HUDSON BAY. SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A DEEP SFC LOW AROUND 975MB OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DEEP LOW AND PRES FALLS OF 5-6MB/3HR PASSING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN STEADY S TO SW WINDS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. WAA AND WINDS HAVE PREVENTED MUCH TEMP DROP DURING THE NIGHT. EARLY MORNING TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 40F IN INTERIOR SHELTED LOCATIONS TO AROUND 50F WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONGEST. CLOSE EXAMINATION OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SOME POCKETS OF ACCAS ARE DEVELOPING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA. PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS TODAY AS SFC TROF TO THE W APPROACHES AND COLD FRONT DROPS SE THRU NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS IN CHECK TODAY...AS WILL INCREASING MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL HELP PREVENT DEEPER MIXING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL STILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE E WHERE GRADIENT SLACKENS LATEST. WITH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...GENERAL QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HINTS OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING... THERE IS SOME RISK OF -SHRA TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500+J/KG OVER THE FAR SCNTRL THIS AFTN. THE GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE MORE MODEST...UP TO 200J/KG. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WOULDN`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AN ISOLD TSTM. A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE HRRR/RAP MODELS IN CONSTRUCTING POPS FIELDS TODAY AS THOSE MODELS HAVE GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE NCAR ENSEMBLES. THIS RESULTS IN A BAND OF ISOLD -SHRA POTENTIAL STREAKING INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING...THEN SAGGING S THRU MID AFTN. ISOLD -SHRA POTENTIAL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SCNTRL DURING THE AFTN HRS. WITH A MILD START TO THE DAY...OPTED TO RAISE TEMPS A LITTLE WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 65F BEING THE RULE. IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE MORE SUN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. COLD FRONT WILL DROP S THRU THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITHOUT ANY PCPN AS FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FRONT IS FCST TO BE WNW...RESULTING IN DRYING ALOFT PRECEDING THE SFC FROPA. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA WILL EXIT EARLY IN THE EVENING AND GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN ONTARIO...A SHALLOW BUT INCREASING NNE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME LOW CLOUDS...AT LEAST IN THE UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NEAR THE LAKE TOWARD 12Z TUE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE RIDGE...ZONAL TO SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGING AND DEEP LAYER 1000-500MB DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD FROM ONTARIO ALLOWING NORTH TO EAST NORTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE TRAPPED BY AN INVERSION AROUND AROUND 2KFT TO 3KFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PLAINS LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE U.P. AND CROSS THE U.P. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THE APPROACH OF THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV...THE ONLY ISSUE WILL BE HOW THE PLAINS LOW AND THE CANADIAN LOW END UP PHASING. THE CANADIAN LOW IS NOW PROGGED BY THE EC/GFS TO PHASE WITH THE PLAINS LOW AS IT SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE BETTER INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING AS THEY BECOME IN SYNC WITH THE FAIRLY POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IF THE PHASING OCCURS AS IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY GUSTY NW WINDS OVER MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SURFACE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUD FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT...BUT IT DOES LOOK AS IF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING RAINY. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE BROAD TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS USED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. ONGOING LLWS WILL END IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS E AND DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION IN FCST. PLUS...IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR... CONDITIONS WON`T FALL BLO VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE N TO NE WIND BEHIND FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS BEFORE 12Z. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS E THIS MORNING AND PRES GRADIENT RELAXES THIS AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM W TO E TODAY. GALE WARNINGS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...12Z CNTRL AND 15Z E. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NE WITH WINDS RAMPING UP TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES. THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON WED. AFTER THE TROF PASSES BY LATE WED...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW...THEN DIMINISH BY LATE THU AS TRAILING HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. S WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 25KT ON FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE HIGH TO THE E AND UNDER A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE ERN NAMERICA TROF THAT DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF THE CONUS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT HAS TRACKED E TO HUDSON BAY. SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A DEEP SFC LOW AROUND 975MB OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DEEP LOW AND PRES FALLS OF 5-6MB/3HR PASSING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN STEADY S TO SW WINDS WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. WAA AND WINDS HAVE PREVENTED MUCH TEMP DROP DURING THE NIGHT. EARLY MORNING TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 40F IN INTERIOR SHELTED LOCATIONS TO AROUND 50F WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONGEST. CLOSE EXAMINATION OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SOME POCKETS OF ACCAS ARE DEVELOPING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WESTWARD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA. PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS TODAY AS SFC TROF TO THE W APPROACHES AND COLD FRONT DROPS SE THRU NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS IN CHECK TODAY...AS WILL INCREASING MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL HELP PREVENT DEEPER MIXING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL STILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE E WHERE GRADIENT SLACKENS LATEST. WITH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...GENERAL QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HINTS OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING... THERE IS SOME RISK OF -SHRA TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500+J/KG OVER THE FAR SCNTRL THIS AFTN. THE GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE MORE MODEST...UP TO 200J/KG. IF THE NAM IS CORRECT...WOULDN`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AN ISOLD TSTM. A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE HRRR/RAP MODELS IN CONSTRUCTING POPS FIELDS TODAY AS THOSE MODELS HAVE GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE NCAR ENSEMBLES. THIS RESULTS IN A BAND OF ISOLD -SHRA POTENTIAL STREAKING INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING...THEN SAGGING S THRU MID AFTN. ISOLD -SHRA POTENTIAL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SCNTRL DURING THE AFTN HRS. WITH A MILD START TO THE DAY...OPTED TO RAISE TEMPS A LITTLE WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 65F BEING THE RULE. IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE MORE SUN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. COLD FRONT WILL DROP S THRU THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITHOUT ANY PCPN AS FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FRONT IS FCST TO BE WNW...RESULTING IN DRYING ALOFT PRECEDING THE SFC FROPA. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA WILL EXIT EARLY IN THE EVENING AND GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FROPA WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN ONTARIO...A SHALLOW BUT INCREASING NNE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME LOW CLOUDS...AT LEAST IN THE UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NEAR THE LAKE TOWARD 12Z TUE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE RIDGE...ZONAL TO SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGING AND DEEP LAYER 1000-500MB DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD FROM ONTARIO ALLOWING NORTH TO EAST NORTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE TRAPPED BY AN INVERSION AROUND AROUND 2KFT TO 3KFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PLAINS LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE U.P. AND CROSS THE U.P. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THE APPROACH OF THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FORCING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV...THE ONLY ISSUE WILL BE HOW THE PLAINS LOW AND THE CANADIAN LOW END UP PHASING. THE CANADIAN LOW IS NOW PROGGED BY THE EC/GFS TO PHASE WITH THE PLAINS LOW AS IT SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE BETTER INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING AS THEY BECOME IN SYNC WITH THE FAIRLY POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IF THE PHASING OCCURS AS IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY GUSTY NW WINDS OVER MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SURFACE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUD FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT...BUT IT DOES LOOK AS IF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING RAINY. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE BROAD TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS USED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. LLWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LATEST KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 45KT AT 500FT AGL. LLWS END AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS E AND PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WHILE THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES TODAY AHEAD OF FEATURE...POTENTIAL IS MUCH TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION IN FCST. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015 AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS E THIS MORNING AND PRES GRADIENT RELAXES THIS AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM W TO E TODAY. GALE WARNINGS OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...12Z CNTRL AND 15Z E. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NE WITH WINDS RAMPING UP TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES. THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON WED. AFTER THE TROF PASSES BY LATE WED...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW...THEN DIMINISH BY LATE THU AS TRAILING HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. S WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 25KT ON FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE HIGH TO THE E AND UNDER A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...RJT/ROLFSON MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 A SFC LOW WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AT 07Z WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO EASTERN ND. A SECOND...WEAKER SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN NORTH CENTRAL SD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INTO CENTRAL ND AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS LOOSENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME CIRRUS WAS FLOATING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WAS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 30F. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GENERATE A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS BY 11Z AND TAKING IT FROM ALONG THE HIGHWAY 169 CORRIDOR IN NE MN THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. HOWEVER...A CHECK OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY BELOW 14K FT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO TRYING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS WHICH IS IN CONFLICT WITH ITS OWN SOUNDINGS. HAVE REMOVED THE RAIN MENTION FOR TODAY. THE SFC LOW OVER NW ONTARIO MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES THE PLACE OF THE LOW AND PARKS ITSELF IN NW ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. A COLD NE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT. WILL SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE COLD AIR MIXES WITH THE RESIDUAL WARM AIR OVER LAND FROM DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE HANDLING OF PCPN ON TUESDAY. THE SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER NW ONTARIO WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH NW WI. THE ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP SHOWERS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM/NAM12/ARW/NMM ARE ALL DRY IN THIS AREA. USED A BLENDED APPROACH THAT PRODUCED A RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON HAVING NO RAIN. THE COLD NE FLOW CONTINUES OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER THAN TODAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 SUMMARY...THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY WILL COME FRIDAY. COLDER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO MANITOBA AND/OR NW ONTARIO BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. THE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW...AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE RAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT LOW TRACKS...BUT THEY ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PCPN AS FAR AS THE NORTHLAND IS CONCERNED. THE GEM...HOWEVER...IS MUCH SLOWER IN TIMING THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BOTH FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND FOR THE TIMING OF THE RAIN. LEANED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY GET COLDER INTO SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WILL USHER IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TONIGHT AT AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS BY 14Z. EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO DULUTH FROM THE LAKE BY 13Z WITH AN INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 63 43 50 40 / 10 0 10 40 INL 63 36 51 35 / 0 0 10 60 BRD 67 43 59 43 / 10 0 10 30 HYR 66 43 59 45 / 10 0 10 30 ASX 65 41 53 41 / 10 0 10 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140. && $$ UPDATE...DAP SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
632 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 A SFC LOW WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AT 07Z WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO EASTERN ND. A SECOND...WEAKER SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN NORTH CENTRAL SD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INTO CENTRAL ND AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS LOOSENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME CIRRUS WAS FLOATING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WAS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 30F. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GENERATE A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS BY 11Z AND TAKING IT FROM ALONG THE HIGHWAY 169 CORRIDOR IN NE MN THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. HOWEVER...A CHECK OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY BELOW 14K FT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO TRYING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS WHICH IS IN CONFLICT WITH ITS OWN SOUNDINGS. HAVE REMOVED THE RAIN MENTION FOR TODAY. THE SFC LOW OVER NW ONTARIO MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES THE PLACE OF THE LOW AND PARKS ITSELF IN NW ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. A COLD NE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT. WILL SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE COLD AIR MIXES WITH THE RESIDUAL WARM AIR OVER LAND FROM DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE HANDLING OF PCPN ON TUESDAY. THE SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER NW ONTARIO WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH NW WI. THE ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP SHOWERS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM/NAM12/ARW/NMM ARE ALL DRY IN THIS AREA. USED A BLENDED APPROACH THAT PRODUCED A RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON HAVING NO RAIN. THE COLD NE FLOW CONTINUES OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER THAN TODAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 SUMMARY...THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY WILL COME FRIDAY. COLDER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO MANITOBA AND/OR NW ONTARIO BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. THE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW...AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE RAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT LOW TRACKS...BUT THEY ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PCPN AS FAR AS THE NORTHLAND IS CONCERNED. THE GEM...HOWEVER...IS MUCH SLOWER IN TIMING THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BOTH FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND FOR THE TIMING OF THE RAIN. LEANED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY GET COLDER INTO SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BECOME ENE TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONG LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDLH BY DAWN. IT IS POSSIBLE THE MORE HUMID FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUD COVER AT KDLH AROUND OR AFTER DAWN...BUT DO NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 63 43 50 40 / 10 0 10 40 INL 63 36 51 35 / 0 0 10 60 BRD 67 43 59 43 / 10 0 10 30 HYR 66 43 59 45 / 10 0 10 30 ASX 65 41 53 41 / 10 0 10 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140. && $$ UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 A SFC LOW WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AT 07Z WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING INTO EASTERN ND. A SECOND...WEAKER SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN NORTH CENTRAL SD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INTO CENTRAL ND AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS LOOSENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME CIRRUS WAS FLOATING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WAS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 30F. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN TRYING TO GENERATE A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS BY 11Z AND TAKING IT FROM ALONG THE HIGHWAY 169 CORRIDOR IN NE MN THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z. HOWEVER...A CHECK OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN DRY BELOW 14K FT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO TRYING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS WHICH IS IN CONFLICT WITH ITS OWN SOUNDINGS. HAVE REMOVED THE RAIN MENTION FOR TODAY. THE SFC LOW OVER NW ONTARIO MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND DRAGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES THE PLACE OF THE LOW AND PARKS ITSELF IN NW ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. A COLD NE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT. WILL SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE COLD AIR MIXES WITH THE RESIDUAL WARM AIR OVER LAND FROM DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE HANDLING OF PCPN ON TUESDAY. THE SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER NW ONTARIO WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH NW WI. THE ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP SHOWERS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM/NAM12/ARW/NMM ARE ALL DRY IN THIS AREA. USED A BLENDED APPROACH THAT PRODUCED A RAIN FREE FORECAST FOR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON HAVING NO RAIN. THE COLD NE FLOW CONTINUES OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER THAN TODAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 SUMMARY...THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY WILL COME FRIDAY. COLDER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO MANITOBA AND/OR NW ONTARIO BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. THE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW...AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF THE RAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT LOW TRACKS...BUT THEY ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PCPN AS FAR AS THE NORTHLAND IS CONCERNED. THE GEM...HOWEVER...IS MUCH SLOWER IN TIMING THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BOTH FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND FOR THE TIMING OF THE RAIN. LEANED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY GET COLDER INTO SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS AS THE BACKSIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KTS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS MONDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND... BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE REMAINS VERY LIMITED... SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 63 43 50 40 / 10 0 10 40 INL 63 36 51 35 / 0 0 10 60 BRD 67 43 59 43 / 10 0 10 30 HYR 66 43 59 45 / 10 0 10 30 ASX 65 41 53 41 / 10 0 10 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140. && $$ SHORT TERM...GSF LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...MCLOVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
927 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC. THE OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT WAS JUST APPROACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA TO QUICKLY END AS THE WEAKENING VORT MAX ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 AS OF 2330 UTC...THE OCCLUDING FRONT WAS PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS THE US HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND STRATUS IN TRAIL. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA THIS EVENING IN ACCORDANCE WITH RADAR TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE HRRR THROUGH ITS 22 UTC ITERATION && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SEPARATES. TONIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE STATE...SPREADING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS EXIT...DECENT SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS...AIDED BY AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT SHOULD SUPPORT GUST WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH EAST...AND LIGHT WINDS WEST WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. AFTER LOWS TONIGHT OF 35 NORTHWEST TO 45 SOUTHEAST...EXPECT HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE LONG TERM IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY/FRIDAY. A COLORADO LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AHEAD OF THE LOW THURSDAY EVENING. THE 12 UTC GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALL HAVE THE CENTER TRAVERSING THE ND/SD BORDER BY FRIDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP DEFORMATION BANDED PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY PROPAGATE OFF TO THE EAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. TOTAL LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY TRANSITION SOME RAIN TO SNOW. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S DURING THE DAY AND 20S/30S AT NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN STRATUS BEHIND AN OCCLUDING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AREA WIDE BEHIND THE FRONT. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PENDLETON OR
1038 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION .UPDATE...PATCHY FOG WAS LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF THE BASIN/KITTITAS VALLEY WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEVADA WAS SPINNING MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO OUR BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO WA/OR AND SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CASCADE CREST TODAY. ELSEWHERE SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. OTHER THAN A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO AFTN TEMPS AND POPS...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...18Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER MVR CIGS AROUND 2-3KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AND AMEND SITES AS NEEDED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 5-10KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. VCSH POSSIBLE AT KPDT THIS AFTERNOON. WEBER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SITTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS IS PUSHING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTIES AS SHOWN IN THE RADAR. THE HRRR MODEL IS ACCURATELY PREDICTING THIS PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THERE FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THEN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TODAY AND TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY THIS MORNING DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE. SO FAR VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN TO 10 PLUS MILES DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. 88 LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE UNDER A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WHICH SHOULD MEAN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. THERE MAY BE A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD AS MOST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DESPITE THE RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THIS INVERSION IS QUITE TYPICAL FOR THE REGION HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER AND BEYOND. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD ALSO BE QUITE CHILLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND 30S AREA WIDE. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LATEST GFS BRINGS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE EUROPEAN/CANADIAN HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH WITH LESS PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S MOUNTAINS. 77 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 65 47 64 43 / 20 20 10 0 ALW 66 51 66 47 / 20 20 10 0 PSC 71 47 68 43 / 10 10 10 0 YKM 71 43 71 42 / 20 10 10 0 HRI 69 46 67 42 / 10 10 10 0 ELN 67 39 66 37 / 20 10 10 0 RDM 60 31 61 31 / 20 20 10 0 LGD 61 43 62 39 / 60 20 10 0 GCD 64 40 62 35 / 20 20 10 0 DLS 68 50 69 48 / 30 10 10 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. && FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON $$ 97/77/89
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
839 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 .UPDATE...PATCHY FOG WAS LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF THE BASIN/KITTITAS VALLEY WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEVADA WAS SPINNING MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO OUR BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO WA/OR AND SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CASCADE CREST TODAY. ELSEWHERE SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. OTHER THAN A FEW MODIFICATIONS TO AFTN TEMPS AND POPS...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SITTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS IS PUSHING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTIES AS SHOWN IN THE RADAR. THE HRRR MODEL IS ACCURATELY PREDICTING THIS PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THERE FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THEN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TODAY AND TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY THIS MORNING DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE. SO FAR VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN TO 10 PLUS MILES DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. 88 LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE UNDER A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WHICH SHOULD MEAN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. THERE MAY BE A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD AS MOST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DESPITE THE RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THIS INVERSION IS QUITE TYPICAL FOR THE REGION HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER AND BEYOND. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD ALSO BE QUITE CHILLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND 30S AREA WIDE. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LATEST GFS BRINGS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE EUROPEAN/CANADIAN HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH WITH LESS PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S MOUNTAINS. 77 AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EARLY IN THIS MORNING AT KRDM AND KBDN....IF SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS GO CALM FOR A TIME SOME PATCHY THICKER FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP HERE NEAR DAYBREAK. LIFR FOG IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT THE PRINEVILLE AIRPORT EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING TOWARDS DAYBREAK MAY RESULT IN SOME VFR MIST AT KYKM. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CAUSE CIGS BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT AGL AT KPDT, KALW AND KPSC THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KALW AND KPDT. A BKN CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 8000 TO 10000 FT AGL IS ADVECTING OVER KDLS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS WILL MENTION VICINITY SHOWERS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KYKM. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WINDS BETWEEN 10- 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS. 77 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 65 47 64 43 / 20 20 10 0 ALW 66 51 66 47 / 20 20 10 0 PSC 71 47 68 43 / 10 10 10 0 YKM 71 43 71 42 / 20 10 10 0 HRI 69 46 67 42 / 10 10 10 0 ELN 67 39 66 37 / 20 10 10 0 RDM 60 31 61 31 / 20 20 10 0 LGD 61 43 62 39 / 60 20 10 0 GCD 64 40 62 35 / 20 20 10 0 DLS 68 50 69 48 / 30 10 10 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. && FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON $$ 97/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PENDLETON OR
440 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SITTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS IS PUSHING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTIES AS SHOWN IN THE RADAR. THE HRRR MODEL IS ACCURATELY PREDICTING THIS PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THERE FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THEN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TODAY AND TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY THIS MORNING DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE. SO FAR VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN TO 10 PLUS MILES DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. 88 .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE UNDER A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WHICH SHOULD MEAN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. THERE MAY BE A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD AS MOST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DESPITE THE RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THIS INVERSION IS QUITE TYPICAL FOR THE REGION HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER AND BEYOND. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD ALSO BE QUITE CHILLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND 30S AREA WIDE. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LATEST GFS BRINGS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE EUROPEAN/CANADIAN HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH WITH LESS PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S MOUNTAINS. 77 && .AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EARLY IN THIS MORNING AT KRDM AND KBDN....IF SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS GO CALM FOR A TIME SOME PATCHY THICKER FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP HERE NEAR DAYBREAK. LIFR FOG IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT THE PRINEVILLE AIRPORT EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING TOWARDS DAYBREAK MAY RESULT IN SOME VFR MIST AT KYKM. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CAUSE CIGS BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT AGL AT KPDT, KALW AND KPSC THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KALW AND KPDT. A BKN CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 8000 TO 10000 FT AGL IS ADVECTING OVER KDLS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS WILL MENTION VICINITY SHOWERS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KYKM. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WINDS BETWEEN 10- 20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS. 77 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 65 47 64 43 / 20 20 10 0 ALW 66 51 66 47 / 20 20 10 0 PSC 71 47 68 43 / 10 10 10 0 YKM 71 43 71 42 / 20 10 10 0 HRI 69 46 67 42 / 10 10 10 0 ELN 67 39 66 37 / 20 10 10 0 RDM 60 31 61 31 / 20 20 10 0 LGD 61 43 62 39 / 30 20 10 0 GCD 64 40 62 35 / 20 20 10 0 DLS 68 50 69 48 / 30 10 10 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. && FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON $$ 88/77/77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SITTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS IS PUSHING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO UNION AND WALLOWA COUNTIES AS SHOWN IN THE RADAR. THE HRRR MODEL IS ACCURATELY PREDICTING THIS PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THERE FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. THEN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TODAY AND TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY THIS MORNING DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE. SO FAR VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN TO 10 PLUS MILES DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. 88 .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE UNDER A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WHICH SHOULD MEAN GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. THERE MAY BE A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD AS MOST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DESPITE THE RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THIS INVERSION IS QUITE TYPICAL FOR THE REGION HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER AND BEYOND. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD ALSO BE QUITE CHILLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND 30S AREA WIDE. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LATEST GFS BRINGS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE EUROPEAN/CANADIAN HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH WITH LESS PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S MOUNTAINS. 77 && .AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND/OR VIS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EARLY IN THIS PERIOD AT KRDM AND KBDN UNTIL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DOWN SLOPE WINDS ARE ESTABLISHED. ALSO LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING TOWARDS DAYBREAK MAY RESULT IN SOME MIST AT KYKM. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CAUSE CIGS BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT AGL AT KPDT, KALW AND KPSC AFTER 09 UTC WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KALW AND KPDT. SIMILAR CLOUDS MAY ADVECT OVER KDLS FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS WILL MENTION VICINITY SHOWERS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KPSC AND KYKM. 90 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 65 47 64 43 / 20 20 10 0 ALW 66 51 66 47 / 20 20 10 0 PSC 71 47 68 43 / 10 10 10 0 YKM 71 43 71 42 / 20 10 10 0 HRI 69 46 67 42 / 10 10 10 0 ELN 67 39 66 37 / 20 10 10 0 RDM 60 31 61 31 / 20 20 10 0 LGD 61 43 62 39 / 30 20 10 0 GCD 64 40 62 35 / 20 20 10 0 DLS 68 50 69 48 / 30 10 10 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. && FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON $$ 88/77/77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1216 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 SUNNY SKIES WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE SISSETON HILLS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PEEVER GUSTING SOLIDLY BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. SISSETON JOINING IN ON THE GUSTS TOO BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG. RAP 925MB WINDS DID PEAK AROUND 45 KNOTS A COUPLE HOURS AGO...BUT SHOW A QUICK DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY AROUND 10Z OR 11Z SO EXPECT THE WINDS IN PEEVER AND SISSETON TO SUBSIDE BEFORE SUNRISE. STILL VERY MILD ALOFT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME INCREDIBLY MILD TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SISSETON IS CURRENTLY 66 DEGREES WHICH IS RATHER REMARKABLE AT 3AM IN THE LATTER HALF OF OCTOBER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MBG HAVING RECENTLY TURNED TO A NORTHERLY WIND. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOL AIR BEHIND THIS IT AT ALL. IN FACT...HIGHS TODAY WERE INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH MANY AREAS IN THE 70S. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MODELS HAVE CUT BACK ON QPF WITH MOST MODELS ACTUALLY SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS ACCORDINGLY...BUT WHAT THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH IS POTENTIALLY A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS WESTERN SD AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. COOLER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS DEPARTING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHS ARE LIKELY ONLY TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLATED TO COME THROUGH THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SFC LOW WILL BE REINFORCED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GFS NOW SHOWS A GULF MOISTURE FEED AT THE SFC...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL REMAINS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS WHICH COULD MEAN HIGHER QPF VALUES AS WELL. FOR NOW QPF OUTPUT INDICATES 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MOHR SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...WISE AVIATION...SCARLETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1025 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 SUNNY SKIES WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE SISSETON HILLS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PEEVER GUSTING SOLIDLY BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. SISSETON JOINING IN ON THE GUSTS TOO BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG. RAP 925MB WINDS DID PEAK AROUND 45 KNOTS A COUPLE HOURS AGO...BUT SHOW A QUICK DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY AROUND 10Z OR 11Z SO EXPECT THE WINDS IN PEEVER AND SISSETON TO SUBSIDE BEFORE SUNRISE. STILL VERY MILD ALOFT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME INCREDIBLY MILD TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SISSETON IS CURRENTLY 66 DEGREES WHICH IS RATHER REMARKABLE AT 3AM IN THE LATTER HALF OF OCTOBER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MBG HAVING RECENTLY TURNED TO A NORTHERLY WIND. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOL AIR BEHIND THIS IT AT ALL. IN FACT...HIGHS TODAY WERE INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH MANY AREAS IN THE 70S. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MODELS HAVE CUT BACK ON QPF WITH MOST MODELS ACTUALLY SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS ACCORDINGLY...BUT WHAT THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH IS POTENTIALLY A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS WESTERN SD AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. COOLER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS DEPARTING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHS ARE LIKELY ONLY TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLATED TO COME THROUGH THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SFC LOW WILL BE REINFORCED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GFS NOW SHOWS A GULF MOISTURE FEED AT THE SFC...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL REMAINS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS WHICH COULD MEAN HIGHER QPF VALUES AS WELL. FOR NOW QPF OUTPUT INDICATES 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MOHR SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...WISE AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
629 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE SISSETON HILLS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PEEVER GUSTING SOLIDLY BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. SISSETON JOINING IN ON THE GUSTS TOO BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG. RAP 925MB WINDS DID PEAK AROUND 45 KNOTS A COUPLE HOURS AGO...BUT SHOW A QUICK DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY AROUND 10Z OR 11Z SO EXPECT THE WINDS IN PEEVER AND SISSETON TO SUBSIDE BEFORE SUNRISE. STILL VERY MILD ALOFT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME INCREDIBLY MILD TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SISSETON IS CURRENTLY 66 DEGREES WHICH IS RATHER REMARKABLE AT 3AM IN THE LATTER HALF OF OCTOBER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MBG HAVING RECENTLY TURNED TO A NORTHERLY WIND. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOL AIR BEHIND THIS IT AT ALL. IN FACT...HIGHS TODAY WERE INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH MANY AREAS IN THE 70S. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MODELS HAVE CUT BACK ON QPF WITH MOST MODELS ACTUALLY SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS ACCORDINGLY...BUT WHAT THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH IS POTENTIALLY A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS WESTERN SD AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. COOLER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS DEPARTING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHS ARE LIKELY ONLY TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLATED TO COME THROUGH THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SFC LOW WILL BE REINFORCED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GFS NOW SHOWS A GULF MOISTURE FEED AT THE SFC...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL REMAINS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS WHICH COULD MEAN HIGHER QPF VALUES AS WELL. FOR NOW QPF OUTPUT INDICATES 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...WISE AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE SISSETON HILLS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PEEVER GUSTING SOLIDLY BETWEEN 45 AND 50 MPH THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. SISSETON JOINING IN ON THE GUSTS TOO BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG. RAP 925MB WINDS DID PEAK AROUND 45 KNOTS A COUPLE HOURS AGO...BUT SHOW A QUICK DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY AROUND 10Z OR 11Z SO EXPECT THE WINDS IN PEEVER AND SISSETON TO SUBSIDE BEFORE SUNRISE. STILL VERY MILD ALOFT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME INCREDIBLY MILD TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SISSETON IS CURRENTLY 66 DEGREES WHICH IS RATHER REMARKABLE AT 3AM IN THE LATTER HALF OF OCTOBER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MBG HAVING RECENTLY TURNED TO A NORTHERLY WIND. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOL AIR BEHIND THIS IT AT ALL. IN FACT...HIGHS TODAY WERE INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WITH MANY AREAS IN THE 70S. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MODELS HAVE CUT BACK ON QPF WITH MOST MODELS ACTUALLY SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS ACCORDINGLY...BUT WHAT THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH IS POTENTIALLY A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS WESTERN SD AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. COOLER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS DEPARTING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHS ARE LIKELY ONLY TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLATED TO COME THROUGH THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SFC LOW WILL BE REINFORCED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GFS NOW SHOWS A GULF MOISTURE FEED AT THE SFC...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL REMAINS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS WHICH COULD MEAN HIGHER QPF VALUES AS WELL. FOR NOW QPF OUTPUT INDICATES 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...WISE AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
852 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... RATHER DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING JUST OVER AN INCH ARE COMBINING WITH THAT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROLLING THROUGH AND FAVORABLE LOW TO UPPER LEVEL JET INTERACTIONS PRODUCING DEEP UVV OVER SRN WI AND NRN IL. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM ABOUT KENOSHA...NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH WAUKESHA...JUNEAU TO VOLK FIELD. ITS GETTING SOME HELP FROM THE COOLER LAKE TEMPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN ALONG THE STATELINE COUNTIES WITH ILLINOIS...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS. AS THAT PEELS OFF TO THE EAST IT SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE RAIN WITH IT. THE HRRR SUGGESTS IT WILL END IN THE EAST BY 08-09Z TONIGHT. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WED MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING US DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DESPITE THE TRAILING CDFNT/TROF MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT WORK ON THAT AFTER ALL THE GUIDANCE COMES IN OVERNIGHT. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING BY SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR THE SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF SITES BY AROUND 06-08Z WED. && .MARINE... SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR WIND AND WAVES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DAVIS TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
623 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF ILLINOIS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING SOUTH AND EAST OF A FRONT THAT STRETCH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO MINNESOTA AND AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE TREND IN THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN TO CONTINUE TO BRING THE ACTIVITY OVER IOWA TO THE NORTHEAST AND JOINING UP WITH THE DEVELOPING ACTIVITY OVER ILLINOIS. THE 20.17Z RUN OF THE HRRR INDICATES THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH BUT THAT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS COULD GET BRUSHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY FORCING FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOMETHING POPPING UP ALONG THE FRONT...SO WILL CARRY SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND START TO MOVE UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM OPENS UP AND STARTS TO EJECT TOWARD THE AREA. THE 20.12Z GFS IS THE QUICKEST TO START BRINGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA AND WOULD INDICATE THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN ALREADY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 20.12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS PROCESS AND HOLDS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS BACK INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE A BIAS OF BEING TOO QUICK TO EJECT OUT SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLOWER MODEL TRENDS AND WILL START TO BRING THE RAIN CHANCES IN FRIDAY. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH PAST THE AREA JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. WITH THIS TRACK...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CONCERN WITH THIS IS WHETHER THE AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA TO GET AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS THE GFS SUGGESTS OR IF THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF BRANCHES WITH ONE TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER INTO THE AREA LIKE THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS AS THIS MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS TO THE EAST AS WELL. SOME LINGERING CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS. THE FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO HAVING A SLIGHT NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO IT. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW AND COULD START TO COME ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ANOTHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THESE CERTAINLY DO NOT LOOK LIKE BIG PRECIPITATION MAKERS AT THIS POINT BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW TO MIX IN LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 SURFACE WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AS OF 20.23Z WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. DEPTH OF HIGHER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH FRONTAL PASSAGES. CLOUDS WILL PRIMARILY BE OF THE CIRRUS VARIETY... ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER VFR CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT AT TAF AIRFIELDS WILL BE A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TO THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN FINALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHEN SOME GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1033 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 .UPDATE... STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANSAND LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. 14Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM MILWAUKEE INDICATES WINDS OF 45 KTS AT 2000FT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS WITH AFTERNOON MIXING. HIGHS ON TRACK TO BE NEAR 70. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... 14Z TAMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF MILWAUKEE INDICATES WINDS OF 45 KTS AT 2000FT. WITH AFTERNOON MIXING COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THIS MORNING IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HOISTED A GALE WARNING FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT SOUTHWARD TO WINTHROP HARBOR THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...SHOULD SEE PERSISTENT GUSTS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE TODAY. SPM && .FIRE WEATHER... BUMPED UP WINDS AND GUSTS A FEW KNOTS FOR TODAY. MIN RH VALUES STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL WITH THE WINDS INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THIS PUTS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE WIND MAX AND RESULTS IN WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE MAIN JET IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RH AT 700 MB INCREASES LATE AFTERNOON...NEARLY SATURATING BY MIDNIGHT. THE RH DOES SATURATE JUST TO THE EAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE DRY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE VIRGA POTENTIAL INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD REACH THE GROUND MAINLY EAST TONIGHT. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT. 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DOES COOL BRIEFLY LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY DUE IN PART TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD EVENING...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FAR SOUTH TONIGHT. THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL IS MORE CONSERVATIVE ON THE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PREFER THE DRIER MESO MODELS. MAIN CONCERN IS THE SURFACE WINDS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THE INVERSION IS INITIALLY KEEPING THE STRONGER WINDS AT BAY. MESO MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN MIXING DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS...WITH A RATHER CHAOTIC WIND STRUCTURE. WILL GO MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS WIND SPEED/GUSTS. EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT NORTH AREAS TOWARD EVENING WITH A WEAK TROUGH SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH. SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY KEEP THE WARM FRONT WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH AN ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING ABOVE 850 MB TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED STEADY INCREASE IN POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED HIGHER POPS IN LATER FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IF WET LOOK IN MODELS CONTINUES. THERE ARE HINTS OF WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG WEDNESDAY...THOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR...SO ELEVATED CAPE MAY NOT BE REALIZED WITH FRONT. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. CLOUDS TUESDAY MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING MORE SIMILAR TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THEY BOTH HAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB BUILDS INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THESE FEATURES SHOULD BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL DURING THIS TIME. HIGH END CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...THOUGH MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS IF TIMING AGREEMENT REMAINS IN LATER MODEL RUNS. MILD TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE DURING THIS TIME. QUIET WEATHER SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL END AS WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING IN AREAS NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD SAG A LITTLE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT STILL MAINLY VFR. MARINE... SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE PERSISTENT GUSTS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE TODAY. FIRE WEATHER... MILDER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE TO CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WATCH OR WARNING WITH FUEL LEVELS...TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES FALLING JUST SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA. RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER TUESDAY...ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ645-646. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643-644. && $$ UPDATE...MARQUARDT TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL WITH THE WINDS INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THIS PUTS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE WIND MAX AND RESULTS IN WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE MAIN JET IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE RH AT 700 MB INCREASES LATE AFTERNOON...NEARLY SATURATING BY MIDNIGHT. THE RH DOES SATURATE JUST TO THE EAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE DRY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE VIRGA POTENTIAL INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD REACH THE GROUND MAINLY EAST TONIGHT. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS TODAY AND DIMINISH TONIGHT. 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DOES COOL BRIEFLY LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY DUE IN PART TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD EVENING...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FAR SOUTH TONIGHT. THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL IS MORE CONSERVATIVE ON THE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PREFER THE DRIER MESO MODELS. MAIN CONCERN IS THE SURFACE WINDS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THE INVERSION IS INITIALLY KEEPING THE STRONGER WINDS AT BAY. MESO MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN MIXING DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS...WITH A RATHER CHAOTIC WIND STRUCTURE. WILL GO MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS WIND SPEED/GUSTS. EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT NORTH AREAS TOWARD EVENING WITH A WEAK TROUGH SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH. .SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY KEEP THE WARM FRONT WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH AN ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING ABOVE 850 MB TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED STEADY INCREASE IN POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED HIGHER POPS IN LATER FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IF WET LOOK IN MODELS CONTINUES. THERE ARE HINTS OF WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MENTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG WEDNESDAY...THOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR...SO ELEVATED CAPE MAY NOT BE REALIZED WITH FRONT. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. CLOUDS TUESDAY MAY LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING MORE SIMILAR TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THEY BOTH HAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500 MB BUILDS INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THESE FEATURES SHOULD BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL DURING THIS TIME. HIGH END CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...THOUGH MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS IF TIMING AGREEMENT REMAINS IN LATER MODEL RUNS. MILD TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE DURING THIS TIME. QUIET WEATHER SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL END AS WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING IN AREAS NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD SAG A LITTLE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT STILL MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE PERSISTENT GUSTS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE TODAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... MILDER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE TO CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WATCH OR WARNING WITH FUEL LEVELS...TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES FALLING JUST SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA. RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER TUESDAY...ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ645-646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643-644. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
938 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 SHOWERS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY SINCE AROUND SUNSET AS DEEP LLVL NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE POST-FRONTAL FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN HAD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF CHEYENNE PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ALONG WITH SOME PEA- SIZED HAIL. EARLIER IN THE EVENING EXPANDED THIS AREA OF PRECIP FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. LATEST MODEL DATA KICKS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE DESERT SW UPPER LOW NORTH THRU CO AND INTO THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL RATES FROM MIDNIGHT THRU SUNRISE... EXPECT ADDL PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER COUPLE OF TENTHS OF RAIN SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE OTHER CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL OVR THE I80 SUMMIT AS RAIN WANES LATER TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR DOES SUGGEST THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TOWARDS SUNRISE. OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER THAT EARLY MORNING PRECIP BREAK MATERIALIZES. DID ADD FOG MENTION TO AREAS ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX DOWN TO BETWEEN 7000-8000 FEET LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. ALTHOUGH...RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO CARRY MUCH IF ANY IMPACT TO HIER ELEVATION ROADWAYS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015 .LONG TERM...(TUESADY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015 UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT COOL CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUICK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WHERE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND YIELDING WESTERLY FLOW AND MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. RELATIVELY COOL UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS MAY ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BUT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 625 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 A PERIOD OF POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS SHAPING UP AS COOL UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT HIER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF KLAR AND KCYS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT THESE TWO SITES 09-12Z WITH -DZ/BR EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH IMPACTS WILL BE LESS AT KRWL AND THE WRN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRFIELDS...STILL ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 09Z. THESE POOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST AT KLAR AND KCYS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD EVEN BEGIN TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT AT THESE SITES AFTER 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT SHOULD START TO SEE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK. ISSUED AT 438 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015 && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CAH SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...SML AVIATION...CAH FIRE WEATHER...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
535 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH POPS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHERN ARIZONA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO ON MOSAIC RADAR WHICH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING. SOME DIFFERENCES SEEN BETWEEN MODELS FOR PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY AND ON MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. ECMWF A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WHILE GFS TENDS TO HOLD THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST IN WESTERN WYOMING TODAY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE SREF...NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS. DID INCREASE POPS OUT THAT WAY FOR TODAY. LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GET A LITTLE WINDY OUT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY TODAY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING CLOSE TO 40KTS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE OVER RAWLINS. DID INCREASE WINDS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY OVER GUIDANCE. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON PRECIP COVERAGE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS TIME AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER ARIZONA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PRECIP CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS INITIALLY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY AND JET DYNAMICS PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL ALSO HAVE UPSLOPE LLVL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. PW/S WILL ALSO INCREASE BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO JUST OVER ONE INCH BY THURSDAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE BULK OF THE DECENT RAINFALL RATES FURTHER EAST...MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE JET ON THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION...PRECIPITATION EXTENT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH SENSE UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP BETWEEN 40 TO 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOUNTAINS. THIS APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY WARM SYSTEM...SO SNOWLEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER 8000 FEET AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME COLDER AIR ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO WYOMING LATE THURSDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...A COOL RAINY DAY IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY ON THURSDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK...THE NORTHERN BRANCH AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL GRADUALLY PHASE TOGETHER INTO ONE PRIMARY JET CORE OVER THE AREA. THIS IS WHERE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE STRUGGLING. THE GEM AND SEVERAL ECMWF/GFS MEMBERS SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THURSDAY SYSTEM...FORMING A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER AS WELL...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE JET POSITION AND EVOLUTION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS ALONG WITH THE BULK OF THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW THE SECONDARY TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD...WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WYOMING AND NEBRASKA BY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GRADUALLY LOWERED POP BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ON SATURDAY...AND MID/UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING) VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON FROM KRWL TO KCYS. KEPT VCSH IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS WITH THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 WINDY DAY TODAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40MPH OUT NEAR RAWLINS AND ARLINGTON AREAS. WE ARE SEEING INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...TJT AVIATION...TJT FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
312 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH POPS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE. CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHERN ARIZONA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO ON MOSAIC RADAR WHICH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING. SOME DIFFERENCES SEEN BETWEEN MODELS FOR PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY AND ON MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. ECMWF A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WHILE GFS TENDS TO HOLD THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST IN WESTERN WYOMING TODAY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE SREF...NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS. DID INCREASE POPS OUT THAT WAY FOR TODAY. LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GET A LITTLE WINDY OUT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY TODAY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING CLOSE TO 40KTS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SURFACE OVER RAWLINS. DID INCREASE WINDS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY OVER GUIDANCE. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON PRECIP COVERAGE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS TIME AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER ARIZONA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PRECIP CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS INITIALLY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY AND JET DYNAMICS PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL ALSO HAVE UPSLOPE LLVL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. PW/S WILL ALSO INCREASE BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO JUST OVER ONE INCH BY THURSDAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE BULK OF THE DECENT RAINFALL RATES FURTHER EAST...MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE JET ON THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION...PRECIPITATION EXTENT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH SENSE UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP BETWEEN 40 TO 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOUNTAINS. THIS APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY WARM SYSTEM...SO SNOWLEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER 8000 FEET AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME COLDER AIR ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO WYOMING LATE THURSDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...A COOL RAINY DAY IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY ON THURSDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK...THE NORTHERN BRANCH AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL GRADUALLY PHASE TOGETHER INTO ONE PRIMARY JET CORE OVER THE AREA. THIS IS WHERE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE STRUGGLING. THE GEM AND SEVERAL ECMWF/GFS MEMBERS SHOW A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THURSDAY SYSTEM...FORMING A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER AS WELL...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TREND ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE JET POSITION AND EVOLUTION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS ALONG WITH THE BULK OF THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW THE SECONDARY TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD...WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WYOMING AND NEBRASKA BY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GRADUALLY LOWERED POP BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ON SATURDAY...AND MID/UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 LATEST IR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE SHOWERS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST COLORADO. MAY STILL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE RWL TAF SITE AFTER 09Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. LOWERED CEILINGS A BIT (7-8KFT) ACROSS THE KLAR/KCYS SITES TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE DAMPENS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SPREADING EAST TO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. WE WILL MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT BY EVENING. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015 WINDY DAY TODAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40MPH OUT NEAR RAWLINS AND ARLINGTON AREAS. WE ARE SEEING INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...TJT AVIATION...TJT FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1143 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 929 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 LATEST RADAR LOOP FROM GRAND JUNCTION WAS SHOWING A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST UTAH MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST IR LOOP. MODELS DO SHOW SOME GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING PLACE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY. AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE CHANCE OF PRECIP. A BIT IN THAT AREA. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 LATEST IR/RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA BORDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE FLARING UP IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 315K. WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LAST LONG. IN FACT...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT THE SHOWERS BETWEEN 3 AND 5Z. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE RULE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND TROUGH AXIS INTO BAJA WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND INSTABILITY WAS TRIGGERING SCATTERED HEAVY CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH. LIGHTER SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING FROM EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN A PLAINS LEESIDE TROUGH AND RIDGE TO THE WEST WAS GENERATING GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COWBOY STATE. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE PLAINS. AFTER THE RECENT STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES...A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TUESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AS THE MAIN LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY INCREASE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING LATE. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH HE CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FROPA TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 A MUCH MORE SEASONAL PERIOD SHAPING UP WED-SUN WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING PRIMARILY WED-THU. THE PATTERN WILL BE SPLIT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVR THE SW CONUS WILL BE DETACHED FROM THE NRN STREAM. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE EVENTUAL PHASING OF THIS UPPER LOW WITH THE NRN STREAM ON THU. BEFORE THEN... WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND UNSETTLED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE CO STATELINE AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. DO NOT EXPECT A WASHOUT ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH A COOL... CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DAY IS ANTICIPATED. THE CLOSED SW CONUS LOW OPENS THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE WRN PLAINS. ALL 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THURSDAY TO PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OF THE WEEK. WILL LIKELY NEED TO BOOST POPS MORE OVR THE COMING DAYS AS CONFIDENCE OF THIS SYSTEM GROWS. GIVEN THE WARMER ORIGIN OF THE SW CONUS UPPER-LOW DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL MUCH BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH IS HIGHS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S. THE PHASED SYSTEM DEPARTS EAST ON FRIDAY...GRADUALLY BRINGING AN END TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT WITH TEMPERATURES TRYING TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 LATEST IR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE SHOWERS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST COLORADO. MAY STILL SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE RWL TAF SITE AFTER 09Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. WE DID LOWER CEILINGS A BIT (7-8KFT) ACROSS THE LAR/CYS TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE DAMPENS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SPREADING EAST TO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. WE WILL MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT BY EVENING. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 MILD...BREEZY AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. LOWEST HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. COOLER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...REC SHORT TERM...MAJ LONG TERM...CAH AVIATION...REC FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
402 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ARIZONA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE 4 CORNERS AREA BY 12Z THU. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER NERN CO TODAY AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT. FOR TODAY...PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF I-70 AND NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER AREA. WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE IN PLACE AND SOME WK ASCENT IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN FURTHER SOUTH BY 12Z. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO SO WILL KEEP IN HIGH POPS FOR THE MTNS...FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS THRU MIDDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10000 FT ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX DOWN TO 9000 FEET OR SO. FOR THIS AFTN UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN HOWEVER QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS STILL SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THRU THE AFTN SO WILL KEEP IN LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER PCON BY LATE AFTN MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE FM NW TO SE AS THE BEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES SHIFT MORE TO THE S AND SE. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NERN CO. BY TONIGHT THE BEST QG ASCENT WILL STAY MOSTLY TO THE S AND SE OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME WK VERTICAL VELOCITIES OVER THE PLAINS. THUS WILL KEEP IN LIKELY POPS OVER THE ECNTRL PLAINS BUT WILL LOWER THEM TO CHC ALONG MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SELY LOW LVL FLOW WILL KEEP IN SOME HIGHER POPS OVER ZNS 34 AND 37 BUT ONLY HAVE A CHC IN MTN AREAS NORTH OF I-70. MEANWHILE BY LATE TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARS THE 4 CORNERS AREA WILL SEE A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MID LVL ASCENT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN AREAS OF CWA BY 12Z ON THU. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 MODELS HAVE A WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AT 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS MODERATELY STRONG QG UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGGED ON THURSDAY AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS ALL DOWNWARD MOTION THEE REST OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WIND IS PROGGED ON THURSDAY...WITH WEAK DRAINAGE PATTERNS THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THERE IS NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BY AFTERNOON...THEN DRAINAGE AGAIN FRIDAY OVERNIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS PLENTY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING SUNRISE...MOISTURE STARTS TO DECREASE. FRIDAY DRIES OUT PARTIALLY...BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS BETTER DRYING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE PROGGED LATE DAY THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE IS EVEN LESS PROGGED LATE DAY FRIDAY AND ONLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS ALL SHOW FAIRLY DECENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE QPF FIELDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. IT DECREASES THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A TAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN SOME OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY EVENING. WILL NEED DECENT POPS ON THURSDAY...30-70%S...EVEN A TAD OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL TAPER POPS DOWN BY MID EVENING AND MORE SO AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GO WITH 10-40%S POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-4 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER AGAIN. FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY...THEN WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE INCREASE INTO MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT WITH THE TROUGH NOR IS THE COLDER AIR. WILL KEEP MINIMAL POPS GOING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 CURRENTLY PCPN WAS NOT OCCURRING AT DIA HOWEVER SHOULD SEE SHOWERS INCREASE BY 11Z OR 12Z WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT PCPN WILL LINGER THRU EARLY AFTN AND THEN DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTN HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT ONLY SCT SHOWERS WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS. BY 12Z ON THU PCPN MAY INCREASE AGAIN AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES AREA. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NLY THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME NE BY EARLY AFTN WITH A GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE ESE BY EARLY EVENING. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ033-034. && $$ SHORT TERM...RPK LONG TERM...RJK AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1134 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 ADDED ZONES 12 AND 18 TO THE EARLY SEASON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH SNOW ALREADY ACCUMULATING AT MONARCH PASS. THE CURRENT BAND OF SNOW WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE A BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LOOK TO REACH THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO DIVIDE MOUNTAINS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING FROM THE SOUTH. UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE ROBUST RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SHEARED APART. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY...BUT INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN WEAKENING NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10000 FT TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW SAN JUANS OVERNIGHT. UP TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE THERE WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-70. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE CULPRIT FOR ALL THIS WEATHER..A CLOSED LOW...WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SRN AZ WHILE SPOKES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND IT. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALREADY POP UP BTWN NAM AND GFS/EC WITH NAM HIGHLIGHTING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP FOR OUR NRN TIER ZONES WHILE GFS/EC FAVOR AREAS SOUTH. H7 WINDS FOUND IN NAM OVER THIS AREA ARE IN THE 30 TO 35MPH RANGE WHILE THOSE IN OTHER MODELS ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 MPH. NAM MAY BE PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON THESE WINDS BRINGING MORE PRECIP INTO THAT AREA. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ATTM...WILL KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REALIZATION THAT SOME AREAS WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OR ANY PRECIP WHILE OTHERS WILL. LATER SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED ONCE MODELS AGREE ON THE FINER DETAILS. FOR WED NIGHT...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT SAN JUANS WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET LIKELY SEEING SOME SNOW...AN INCH OR THREE. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP. WILL SEE HOW MUCH SNOW THOSE AREAS RECEIVE TONIGHT BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE LOW FINALLY OPENS UP THURSDAY AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD CORE MOVES OVERHEAD CAUSING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WHILE PWATS STILL REMAIN HIGH. ALL HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS FAVORED IN THE MODELS BUT SOME VALLEYS WILL ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST USHERING IN COOLER AIR. MODELS HIGHLIGHT A POST FRONTAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...2 TO 4 INCHES...LOOKS POSSIBLE ABOVE 9K FEET OR SO. THE FLAT TOPS AND NRN MTNS LOOK FAVORED THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND SAN JUANS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SOME SNOW...AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES. FRIDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MORE ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS THOUGH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LOWER THAN SEEN LATELY. FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY AND THIS FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD BUT NOTHING TOO EXCEPTIONAL. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH...AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT RANGE LOOKS FAVORED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING TO AROUND 10K AND NIGHT AND CLIMB TO AROUND 11K DURING THE DAY. EXPECT AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ012-018- 019. UT...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JAM SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1105 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 UPDATED TO RAISE POPS A BIT OVER THE ERN PLAINS. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR POINT TO CONTINUED SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS E OF I-25 THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE A BIT OF A LULL AFTER 06Z BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ROSE && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 UPPER LOW FORECAST TO SWING INTO WESTERN AZ THIS EVENING...THEN LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER DURING THE DAY WED. STRONG SHORT WAVE LIFTING AROUND THE LOW THROUGH NM ALREADY FORCING A LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A FEW TSRA WORKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SANGRES/SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AS OF MID-AFTERNOON. EXPECT WAVE TO ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A LULL IN PRECIP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WAVE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL...WITH NORTH WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE TEMPORARILY HAMPERING PRECIP AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW LEVELS START NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL THIS EVENING...BUT SLOWLY FALL OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAN JUANS. ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER A MORNING LULL...PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPS AND SPREADS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER...WHICH INCREASES VERTICAL MOTION AND ALLOWS LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS TO TURN MORE E-NE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. INSTABILITY RATHER LIMITED...BUT WITH FAIRLY STRONG FORCING TOUGH TO RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION GOING ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...BUT WITH CONVECTION AND STRONG UPWARD MOTION...EXPECT SOME RATHER HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET...INCLUDING THE SUMMIT OF PIKES PEAK. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES BEGINNING THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WED...THOUGH IMPACTS MAY BE LIMITED TO AREAS MAINLY ABOVE PASS LEVEL. ELEVATIONS IN THE 8-10K RANGE MAY SEE SNOW AT TIMES UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS THIS LOW SHOULD BE MINOR. MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...THOUGH DID NUDGE MAX TEMP GRID UP SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL OF A FEW RAIN FREE HOURS EARLY IN THE DAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 ...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WED NIGHT THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER AZ...CONTINUING TO DRAW A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS NM AND INTO CO. THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO EJECT TO THE NE AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY THU...MOVING UP INTO EASTERN WY THU NIGHT. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CROSSES CO ON FRI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN...AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS...WILL OCCUR WED NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THU. BY THU EVE THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR SHOWERS TO START TAPERING OFF. THEREFORE...THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS GOOD FOR BEING IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z FRI. AS FOR TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON THU...THEN PERHAPS WARMING UP TO NEAR 70F FOR FRI. LOW TEMPS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL THREATEN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND HIGH VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SAVE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SAT MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...THE WEEKEND LOOKS ESSENTIALLY DRY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY...THEN TRACKS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE AREA MON AFTERNOON...THEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE MONDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WILL PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR ALL OF THE E PLAINS AND E MTS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH DAYS IN THE 60S. MOORE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY...WET SNOW WILL FLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH MOST HIGHER PEAKS AND PASSES OBSCURED. WILL CARRY VCSH IN TAFS OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY FOR MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. LIKELIHOOD OF VCTS TOO LOW TO MENTION. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS INCREASES ALL AREAS...INCLUDING TAF SITES...12-15Z AS MOISTURE MOVES UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA. MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BECOME OBSCURED ALL AREAS WITH HEAVY...WET SNOW ABOVE 9 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET. ALL 3 TAF SITES WILL SEE PERIODS OF RAIN WITH MAINLY MVFR BUT POSSIBLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060- 066-068-073-075-080-082. && $$ UPDATE...ROSE SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 ADDED ZONES 12 AND 18 TO THE EARLY SEASON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH SNOW ALREADY ACCUMULATING AT MONARCH PASS. THE CURRENT BAND OF SNOW WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE A BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LOOK TO REACH THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO DIVIDE MOUNTAINS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING FROM THE SOUTH. UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE ROBUST RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SHEARED APART. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY...BUT INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN WEAKENING NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING TO ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10000 FT TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW SAN JUANS OVERNIGHT. UP TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE THERE WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-70. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SNOWFALL. BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE CULPRIT FOR ALL THIS WEATHER..A CLOSED LOW...WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SRN AZ WHILE SPOKES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND IT. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALREADY POP UP BTWN NAM AND GFS/EC WITH NAM HIGHLIGHTING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP FOR OUR NRN TIER ZONES WHILE GFS/EC FAVOR AREAS SOUTH. H7 WINDS FOUND IN NAM OVER THIS AREA ARE IN THE 30 TO 35MPH RANGE WHILE THOSE IN OTHER MODELS ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 MPH. NAM MAY BE PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON THESE WINDS BRINGING MORE PRECIP INTO THAT AREA. WITH CONFIDENCE NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ATTM...WILL KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REALIZATION THAT SOME AREAS WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OR ANY PRECIP WHILE OTHERS WILL. LATER SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED ONCE MODELS AGREE ON THE FINER DETAILS. FOR WED NIGHT...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT SAN JUANS WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET LIKELY SEEING SOME SNOW...AN INCH OR THREE. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP. WILL SEE HOW MUCH SNOW THOSE AREAS RECEIVE TONIGHT BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE LOW FINALLY OPENS UP THURSDAY AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD CORE MOVES OVERHEAD CAUSING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WHILE PWATS STILL REMAIN HIGH. ALL HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS FAVORED IN THE MODELS BUT SOME VALLEYS WILL ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST USHERING IN COOLER AIR. MODELS HIGHLIGHT A POST FRONTAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...2 TO 4 INCHES...LOOKS POSSIBLE ABOVE 9K FEET OR SO. THE FLAT TOPS AND NRN MTNS LOOK FAVORED THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND SAN JUANS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SOME SNOW...AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES. FRIDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MORE ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS THOUGH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LOWER THAN SEEN LATELY. FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY AND THIS FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD BUT NOTHING TOO EXCEPTIONAL. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH...AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT RANGE LOOKS FAVORED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. CIGS WILL BRIEFLY DROP BELOW MVFR THRESHOLDS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 10K THROUGH THIS OPERATIONAL PERIOD. IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR KDRO AND KTEX FROM 21Z-00Z ...KMTJ...KCNY...KMTJ...KASE AND KEGE FROM 00Z-06Z. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ012-018- 019. UT...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JAM SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR LONG TERM...TGR AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL A RATHER DRY LAYER BELOW H800 FROM KALY AND KBUF WHICH CONCUR WITH THE CEILINGS BETWEEN 5-8K FEET. THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE CONTINUED TO TRACK EAST WEAKENED WITH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING A LITTLE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS THE SAME AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 50 PERCENT NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES VERMONT. FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. STILL REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY. IT WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 70 FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MORE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. POPS FOR THE DAY WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...RANGING DOWN TO ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 70 ONCE AGAIN. MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CHILLY CANADIAN AIRMASS BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AS 1030+MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS BUT AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEN THE UPPER LOW/STORM IMPACTING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK SYNOPTIC SHIFT TOWARD A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...THERE REMAINS A BRIEF TAP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FEED WHICH IS SEEN IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. SO WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHER POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING PER TIMING OF THE GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SUITE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AS OPPOSED TO THE GGEM/GFS WHICH WANT TO LINGER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE I84 CORRIDOR. SEEMS THE KEY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE STRENGTH THE OF RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. ENSEMBLE MEANS DAMPEN OUT THE FEATURES SO FOR NOW WE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF AS WE RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL. CONSENSUS INCREASES FOR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WHICH FOR LATER OCTOBER...AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID 30S. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE REGION...AND WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A THREAT FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM KALB- KPSF NORTHWARD INTO THE LATE MORNING. SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS AT KALB/KGFL ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM. OTHER THAN THE SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR KALB/KPSF/KPOU. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT KPOU. KGFL MAY HAVE A PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK AROUND 2 KFT AGL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KPSF BTWN 12Z-18Z. ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO 00Z/THU. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT NEARBY. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT... AND THEN DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT. RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GJM NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM/11 SHORT TERM...GJM LONG TERM...BGM/WASULA AVIATION...WASULA FIRE WEATHER...GJM/11 HYDROLOGY...GJM/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
146 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE. THE TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED FROM CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS. THE FORECAST OVERALL REMAINS ON TRACK. THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY REACHING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT COUNTIES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS WITH NEXT FORECAST IF RADAR TRENDS INCREASE WITH REFLECTIVITY AND THEREBY SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT...RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION...SO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. USED A MIX OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S...WITH THE COOLEST LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING NEARBY...EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOW IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BEGIN TO WARM UP TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR. A COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LIGHT W/SE FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN WITH SEA BREEZE COMPONENT FLOW. LGT AND VRB WINDS TNGT. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN... .WED NIGHT...VFR. .THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS...MAINLY INLAND AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW WINDS G20KT. .FRI...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT. .SAT...VFR. .SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...SCA CONTINUES UNTIL 10Z WED...MAINLY DUE TO RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS EXCEEDING 5 FT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MIGHT ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL AREA WATERS. SEAS AND WINDS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY AND REMAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY ON THE OCEAN IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/FIG NEAR TERM...BC/JM/JP SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...FIG AVIATION...JMC/PW MARINE...BC/JM/FIG HYDROLOGY...BC/FIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1220 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL A RATHER DRY LAYER BELOW H800 FROM KALY AND KBUF WHICH CONCUR WITH THE CEILINGS BETWEEN 5-8K FEET. THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE CONTINUED TO TRACK EAST WEAKENED WITH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING A LITTLE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS THE SAME AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 50 PERCENT NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES VERMONT. FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. STILL REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH GREATER AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY. IT WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 70 FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MORE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE VERY MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. POPS FOR THE DAY WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...RANGING DOWN TO ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 70 ONCE AGAIN. MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CHILLY CANADIAN AIRMASS BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AS 1030+MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL TRANSVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS BUT AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. THEN THE UPPER LOW/STORM IMPACTING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK SYNOPTIC SHIFT TOWARD A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...THERE REMAINS A BRIEF TAP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FEED WHICH IS SEEN IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. SO WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHER POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING PER TIMING OF THE GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SUITE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AS OPPOSED TO THE GGEM/GFS WHICH WANT TO LINGER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE I84 CORRIDOR. SEEMS THE KEY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE STRENGTH THE OF RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. ENSEMBLE MEANS DAMPEN OUT THE FEATURES SO FOR NOW WE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF AS WE RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL. CONSENSUS INCREASES FOR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WHICH FOR LATER OCTOBER...AVERAGE HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE MID 30S. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/THU FOR KPOU-KPSF-KALB. WHILE AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE PREVALENT...CIGS WERE ABOVE FLIGHT THRESHOLDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSE TO KGFL...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS MAY ALSO IMPACT KALB-KPSF AS WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND VCSH RESPECTFULLY. GENERALLY...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT RATHER DIFFUSE. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT... AND THEN DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A BETTER CHANCEOF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT. RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GJM NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM/11 SHORT TERM...GJM LONG TERM...BGM/WASULA AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...GJM/11 HYDROLOGY...GJM/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
534 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... 09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURE THAT STANDS OUT IS DEEP AND ENERGETIC TROUGHING PIVOTING SLOWLY THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE IS CENTERED BY A CLOSED LOW FEATURE SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA...WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM WE FIND WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HEIGHT FALLS ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ACT TO FORCE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE THROUGH TODAY AND THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE POSITION CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A STEADY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA...WHICH WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONDITIONS ARE SEASONABLE AS WE APPROACH DAWN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THAT WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHALLOW SPEED CONVERGENCE SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...HOWEVER JUST ABOUT ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING OUR INLAND ZONES. THIS PROCESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT DO ANTICIPATE THE EVENTUALLY LATER THIS MORNING SOME OF THIS LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO REACH PORTIONS OF SUMTER/POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES (BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT...JUST A FEW RAIN DROPS). && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... TODAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET...SEASONABLE...AND MAINLY DRY TO START OUT THE DAY. SKIES WILL QUICKLY BECOME A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH AND MIDDLE 80S SOUTH. LOOKING AT MOISTURE PROFILES...THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT GREATER TODAY THAN IT WAS ON TUESDAY. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD HELP A FEW MORE OF THE SPEED CONVERGENT ATLANTIC SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO REACH OUR INLAND ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FURTHER WITH WESTWARD PROGRESS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAKING IT AS FAR AS THE NATURE COAST AND I-75 CORRIDOR AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE/LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE GONE WITH A 20% POP OVER INLAND AREAS...AND A 10% POP FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT ANY RAINFALL TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. MOST AREAS WILL NOT EVEN SEE A WETTING RAINFALL...BUT RATHER PERHAPS JUST A FEW PASSING RAINDROPS. BEST CHANCES AT SEEING SOMETHING MEASURABLE IN THE 0.01-0.05" RANGE WOULD BE FROM SUMTER COUNTY...DOWN INTO EASTERN POLK AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TONIGHT...ANY EVENING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH ANOTHER MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVERHEAD LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ADDED SUPPRESSION LOOKS AS THOUGH IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN LIMIT THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY THAT IS ABLE TO REACH OUR FORECAST ZONES. DO NOT HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN 10% POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH SPRINKLE MENTION CONFINED TO EASTERN POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...IF NOT A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW/MID 80S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH. HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY EVERYONE! && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)... A STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND SUPPRESS THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...HOWEVER THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAKER U/L RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A STRONG COMPLEX U/L LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL INDUCE STRONG SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS EACH DAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING...AND GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELDS WILL BE AROUND WITH BASES GENERALLY ABOVE 3-4KFT AGL. A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BY MID/LATE MORNING...AND THEN SETTLE DOWN WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. && .MARINE... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...PROVIDING A STEADY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR NOCTURNAL AND EARLY MORNING SURGES OF WIND. THESE SURGES OF WIND ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERIODICALLY REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BOATERS HEADING OUT ON THE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECASTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATER EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY MIDDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STALLED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY KEEPING A STEADY EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE HIGH DURING EACH OF THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 86 70 87 70 / 10 0 0 0 FMY 88 70 87 70 / 0 0 10 10 GIF 85 67 85 68 / 20 10 10 0 SRQ 86 70 86 71 / 10 0 0 0 BKV 85 65 86 65 / 10 0 0 0 SPG 84 72 85 72 / 10 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1150 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 843 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Going to have to boost PoPs, at least a little, across much of the forecast area tonight. A MCV from a pesky convective complex is currently tracking east across northern Illinois. Some enhanced forcing trailing from this MCV, along with a developing nocturnal low-level jet, is increasing shower development over the western portion of the forecast area. This development is likely to track east along with the MCV, although a the airmass is drier and low- level jet weaker as you head east. Despite the higher PoPs, the overall rainfall should be minimal due to the very dry low-level airmass across central Illinois. Other tweaks to forecast will be minor. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1030mb high centered over the southeast CONUS and a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the Northern Plains. Between these two features...strong southwesterly winds will continue to transport warm air into Illinois tonight. Latest satellite/radar composite shows remnants of convective cluster that formed along the nose of a low-level jet late last night over northwest Missouri now crossing the Mississippi River just north of Quincy. These showers will continue to track northeastward over the next few hours, mainly impacting locations northwest of the Illinois River. As the nocturnal LLJ once again strengthens from eastern Kansas to northern Illinois tonight, additional showers will develop across north-central Illinois. Both the NAM and HRRR suggest the northern half of the KILX CWA could potentially see showers, so will carry a slight chance PoP across this area accordingly. Further south will maintain a dry forecast. Due to increasing cloud cover and a continued southerly wind of 10- 15 mph, overnight low temperatures will be considerably warmer than in recent nights. Readings will range from the upper 40s near the Indiana border, to the middle to upper 50s along/west of I-55. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 Breezy southwest winds will continue Wednesday as high pressure remains off the central Atlantic coastline and low pressure moves eastward through the northern Great Lakes area. Sustained SW winds around 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph can be expected. A frontal boundary trailing the low will bring at least a slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms settling southward through central IL Wednesday evening through Thursday as moisture advects northward from the Gulf in southerly flow ahead of the boundary. Warm conditions will precede the front...with highs reaching around 80 degrees throughout central IL Wednesday...lowering several degrees from I-72 northward for Thursday. To the south...little cooling will take place as the front stalls out and weakens in that vicinity. Highs mainly in the low to mid 70s will follow for Friday and Saturday. Next chance for precipitation will take place Friday into Saturday as models coming into fairly good agreement tracking a surface low into the upper Midwest by Friday evening...with precipitation moving into western Illinois by Friday afternoon. General model trend has been to move this system in faster over the past few days...with the latest runs continuing to speed up the system...although the run-to- run differences are not dramatic as of the 12Z run. Timing of the cold front associated with this system...combined with forecast instability ahead of the front still supports a chance for thunderstorms Saturday...especially toward the southern and eastern portions of Illinois. Cooler and dry conditions will follow the front for Sunday through Tuesday...except for possibly a few showers lingering in SE Illinois Sunday. Highs should drop back to near normal for central/SE Illinois...with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows generally in the low 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 A few bands of light showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed and are tracking across central Illinois late this evening. While any rainfall will be light in most cases, the coverage and intensity has increased to the point that TEMPO groups are needed for most local terminals for the next few hours. However, even in the heavier rainfall, expect VFR conditions to prevail. Otherwise, southerly winds will prevail through the bulk of the period, with gustiness also expected during the peak diurnal mixing hours Wednesday. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BAK SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Onton AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1138 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 836 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 REST OF THIS EVE INTO EARLY OVRNGT WILL SEE CONTINUED DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM W TO E... AS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE MIGRATES EASTWARD. SYSTEM DEPOSITED 1-3 INCH RAIN TOTALS OVER PORTIONS OF IOWA...JOHNSON...MUSCATINE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES ALONG WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL PEA TO NEAR PENNY SIZE. MLI FINALLY SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 31 DAYS TYING FOR THE 7TH LONGEST DRY STREAK ON RECORD. IN WAKE OF SYSTEM... MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG OVRNGT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED MINS TNGT DOWN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS MAINLY NORTH HALF OF CWA WHERE CURRENT TEMPS IN A FEW LOCATIONS ARE AT OR JUST BELOW FCST LOWS DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR. OTHERWISE...WATCHING ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH KS. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO GET SHUTTLED UP OVER THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VLY NEXT 24 HRS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER RIDGE. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALSO HINTED AT BY LATEST RUNS OF HRRR AND RAP ... THUS HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHC/ISOLD COVERAGE WORDING FOR LATER TNGT SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES. THESE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING DAY ON WEDNESDAY ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE... AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD SHOWERS FOR NOW... BUT TRENDS AND FORCING WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH IF MORE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THEN THESE COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK 850MB LOW IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A LLJ RAN FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. SATELLITE TRENDS HAS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND THERE IS SOME THUNDER EMBEDDED WITH THE CONVECTION. 18Z SFC DATA HAS A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND A WEAK LOW IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS WERE IN 30S ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH 40S AND 50S FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.&& .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR DATA AND TRENDS FROM THE RAP...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS DECREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. ON WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH NO APPARENT TRIGGER OR FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT ARE COMING FROM THE WEST WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK. THUS WILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES. ONE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER EITHER. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE TWO CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE FIRST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND THE OTHER WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA AT THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH. AS SUCH HAVE SCHC WITH A LOW END CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIRES ARW AND NMM BOTH OF MODEL REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT. THE BOUNDARY THEN SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALLS OUT WITH A H5 RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SW ON FRIDAY AND THE SFC BOUNDARY RETURNS TO THE NORTH. A ROBUST WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE THE AREA WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. A PREFRONTAL WAVE LOOKS TO FIRE PRECIP BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN. THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WOULD SUGGEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF THERE WAS ANY INSTABILITY. THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM THIS WAVE SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM. IF FOR SOME REASON THE SFC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURNS SOONER THAN PROGGED...SLIGHT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WOULD LEAD TO A HSLC TORNADO THREAT. THIS IS A VERY LOW CHANCE...AND INGREDIENTS NEED TO MATCH UP FOR IT OCCUR...BUT NONETHELESS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AMOUNT WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND LEAD TO A DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PAST THIS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR DATA AND TRENDS FROM THE RAP...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS DECREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. ON WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH NO APPARENT TRIGGER OR FORCING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT ARE COMING FROM THE WEST WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK. THUS WILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES. ONE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER EITHER. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE TWO CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE FIRST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND THE OTHER WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA AT THE BEGINNING OF PERIOD LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH. AS SUCH HAVE SCHC WITH A LOW END CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIRES ARW AND NMM BOTH OF MODEL REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT. THE BOUNDARY THEN SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND STALLS OUT WITH A H5 RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SW ON FRIDAY AND THE SFC BOUNDARY RETURNS TO THE NORTH. A ROBUST WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE THE AREA WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. A PREFRONTAL WAVE LOOKS TO FIRE PRECIP BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN. THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WOULD SUGGEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF THERE WAS ANY INSTABILITY. THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM THIS WAVE SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM. IF FOR SOME REASON THE SFC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURNS SOONER THAN PROGGED...SLIGHT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WOULD LEAD TO A HSLC TORNADO THREAT. THIS IS A VERY LOW CHANCE...AND INGREDIENTS NEED TO MATCH UP FOR IT OCCUR...BUT NONETHELESS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AMOUNT WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND LEAD TO A DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PAST THIS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 21/06Z. AROUND DAYBREAK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF FOG WITH VSBYS 3-6SM DUE TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL. A FEW MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-80... WITH CHANCES TO LOW FOR MENTION. TOWARD MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY AM THROUGH AFTERNOON WILL SEE EXPANSION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO INTERACTION OF NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH VCSH WORDING. FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...05 SYNOPSIS...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...GIBBS AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
329 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT A MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WAS RELATIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF YESTERDAY WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT TO OVERCOME SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. IN FACT...PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE AREA WILL TOP ONE INCH THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS MID LEVEL FRONT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS OF 630Z...THIS SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER METRO CHICAGO AND MOVING NORTHEAST. IT WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SE MI IN THE 12 TO 15 Z TIME FRAME. THE SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THIS WAVE SUGGESTS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE TOO WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE. REGIONAL RADAR ALONG WITH THE RECENT HRRR SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MORE PROLONGED AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED GENERALLY NORTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR WHERE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENSUES FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIFT THE SFC WARM FRONT /NOW EXTENDING ACROSS CNTL LOWER MI AND THE TIP OF THE THUMB/ NORTHWARD...PLACING ALL OF SE MI WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF RESIDUAL MID CLOUDS. THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES AND THE EXPECTATION OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI TONIGHT /3-9Z/...DRIVEN THROUGH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DEEP LAYER FRONTAL FORCING ACTING UPON A LOW-MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE PRECEDING THE SFC FRONT AND SOME DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. && .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES THIS WEEK. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN TENDS TO KEEP MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC REFLECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE REGION. WE WILL RESIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET STREAM THUS SOMEWHAT MILD TEMPERATURES...AT OR JUST BELOW LATE OCTOBER AVERAGES...WILL CONTINUE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH BUT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL YIELD SOME DEGREE OF SHALLOW CAA. MORE NOTABLY THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL TAKE A BIG HIT ABOVE 900MB WITH PWATS FALLING TO BELOW A HALF INCH. THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S AS NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND SUCH A DRY AIRMASS. THOUGH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION...COOL EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 100MB WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. CHANGES THEN COME TO THE PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS EJECTING NE THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF LOWER MI BUT A LL JET SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MI WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO START DRIFTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STRING OUT NE TO SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MI AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS FURTHER NE. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP ONGOING THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FOR THE START OF THE WEEK BUT MODELS INDICATE THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SO WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY DIVING THROUGH THE TROUGH DURING THAT TIME. && .MARINE... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS LOW HAS PULLED A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH THE REGION WHICH HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE LAKES KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS TEMPERED...MAXING OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BURST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX BUT NOT BEFORE VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL SEND THE HIGHER WAVES DOWN THE AXIS OF THE LAKE TOWARD. WAVES POSSIBLE REACHING 4 FEET MAY BRUSH THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE THUMB THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 1144 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 FRONTAL ZONE IS SLOWLY LIFTING BACK NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE LIFTING TOWARD THE CHICAGO AREA. INCREASED FORCING IS SUPPORTING GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. DRY AIR WILL TAKE ITS TOLL ON INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SO SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE MORE LIMITED OUTSIDE THE KFNT/KPTK CORRIDOR. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN SHIELD WILL PUSH THROUGH APPROX 09-15Z. LOCALLY HEAVIER RATES MAY PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS, BUT ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING SHOWERS TO BE HIGH BASED WITH LITTLE TO NO VSBY RESTRICTION...PARTICULARLY IN THE DETROIT AREA. FOR DTW...DTW WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE MOST ORGANIZED RAINFALL WHICH INCREASES UNCERTAINTY IN -SHRA POTENTIAL. ELECTED TO HIGHLIGHT PERIOD OF PEAK POTENTIAL IN THE TAF, BUT NOTE THAT EVEN IN SHOWERS CIG AND VSBY WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY VFR WITH CIGS STAYING ABOVE 5KFT. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * NONE && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SC LONG TERM....DRK MARINE.......DRK AVIATION.....JVC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
137 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE AREA WILL ALSO SEE CHANCES OF RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL COME TO AN END BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER THREAT OF RAIN WILL COME IN ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 I INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO 80 PCT OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA AS THE CONVECTIVE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF IOWA HEADS TOWARD SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. ALREADY THE PRECIPITATION ECHOES ARE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF LITTLE SABLE POINT...OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE SHORTWAVE IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. I ALSO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES TILL MIDNIGHT AS SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY DOES NOW GET INTO THOSE COUNTIES (23Z RAP MODEL). EVEN THROUGH THE RAP MODEL SHOWS AREA OF 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE 10 PM TO 2 AM TIME FRAME...IT ALSO KILLS THE LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THAT CONVECTIVE VORT AS IT MOVES TOWARD MICHIGAN. IN SO DOING IT ALSO KILLS THE PRECIPITATION TOO. SINCE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS GOOD AND THE SYSTEM STILL LOOKS GOOD ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES I AM GOING WITH THE SYSTEM HOLDING TOGETHER ANYWAY. THUS I KEEP THE 60 TO 70 PCT POP NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96 GOING TILL 8 AM. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 OUR MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING RAIN TRENDS AND THUNDER CHCS THROUGH WED NIGHT. WE HAVE A COUPLE OF NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ONE IS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER THAT IS MOVING EAST...AND DIMINISHING. ANOTHER IS BETWEEN I-96 AND I-94 THAT IS COMING FROM THE CHICAGO AREA AND SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE ARE EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS TO TREND DOWN BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND BRINGING A LULL IN PCPN FOR A FEW HOURS. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF WED MORNING. THERE IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE THAT WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WAVE NOW ACROSS NRN MO. THE RAIN SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AND THE CHC OF THUNDER IS QUITE LOW ONCE AGAIN WITH ELEVATED LI/S ONLY JUST A SHADE BELOW ZERO C. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE WAVE OF RAIN WED MORNING MOVES OUT. SLIGHTLY BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES IN WED...JUSTIFYING THE CHC OF THUNDER AT THAT TIME. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER HEALTHY SURGE IN MOISTURE MOVE IN LATE WED AFTERNOON AND WED EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN SURGE WITH THE LLJ THAT WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING IN WED NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING A GOOD CHC OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING. WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR MOVE IN FOR THU ALONG WITH COOLER AIR. RAIN SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z THU. SOME FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPR RIDGE SHOWN TO BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT SINCE THE SFC DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30S DUE TO THE DRY EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. VIRGA/SPRINKLES WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS PRECEDING THE FRONT STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST SINCE LITTLE TO NO MU CAPE IS PROGGED. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST CWFA ON SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND SFC RIDGING BRINGS DECREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOLER SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY. AFTER DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. RAIN COVERAGE/AMOUNTS LOOK LIMITED AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 5-8K FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VSBYS OUTSIDE OF A LOCALIZED BRIEF DOWN POUR. A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BUILD WAVES TO 3 TO 5 FEET NORTH OF HOLLAND WEDNESDAY. I SAW NO REASON TO WAIT TO ISSUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SINCE APX ALREADY HAS ONE OUT...SO IT IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING NORTH OF HOLLAND. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 RIVERS ARE RUNNING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. A STRIPE OF BASIN-AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER A QUARTER INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. NEITHER RAIN EVENT IS ANTICIPATED TO CREATE A FLOOD RISK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ846>849. && $$ UPDATE...WDM SYNOPSIS...NJJ SHORT TERM...NJJ LONG TERM...MEADE AVIATION...JK HYDROLOGY...CAS MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
128 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BRISK N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN ONTARIO HAVE SUPPORTED A PERSISTENT PATCH OF UPSLOPE STRATOCU OVER BARAGA COUNTY AND THE NW HALF OF MQT COUNTY. WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS SAGGING SOUTH OF MNM COUNTY AND NRN LAKE MI...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OVER SCNTRL FCST AREA. TONIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA TONIGHT...850MB WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF MODELS INDICATES BETTER ISENTROPIC MOIST ASCENT WL STAY SE OF THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE NW OF THE FCST AREA AS NOTED ON 700-300 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS STILL ARGUES FOR TWO AREAS OF DEVELOPING PCPN TO SPLIT SE AND NW OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH MODEL QPF GUIDANCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY CARRY SCHC POPS TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL BE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH 150M 12 HR 5H HEIGHT FALLS FCST BY MODELS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY WED EVENING. THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE NORTH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG THE SHORTWAVE TRACK AND AGAIN THE BETTER MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN SE OF THE FCST AREA. THIS SPLIT IN FORCING WILL WORK TO KEEP RAIN SHOWERS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONALLY...BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...MODELS ADVERTISE A RISE/FALL COUPLET WHICH WILL AID GUSTY W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES DESTABILIZATION AND MIXING. THIS COULD ALL LEAD TO GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER NW MARQUETTE COUNTY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 EXITING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM THE W FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CROSSING THE CWA THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF INCREASED WIND EVENTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. STEADY SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT E UPPER MI WEDNESDAY EVENING. PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN OR LESS AT 00Z THURSDAY OVER THE W HALF...WITH 1IN VALUES EXITING FAR E. NW FLOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE IN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW OVER FAR NE LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z AND THE DRAGGING COLD FRONT EXITS JUST E OF THE CWA...WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E WITH WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY THE SFC LOW WILL BE JUST S OF JAMES BAY AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE E OF LAKE HURON. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY TROUGH WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z THURSDAY...PROLONGING THE WNW WINDS A BIT LONGER. 850MB TEMPS OF -1 TO -3C THURSDAY MORNING WITH THESE UPSLOPE/LAKESHORE CONVERGENT WINDS WILL KEEP LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE SET UP FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH IA AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS TAKING HOLD OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA BY 06Z FRIDAY...THEN EXIT E AS THE 500MB RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BEHIND THE HIGH AS A DEEPENING LOW NEARS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE LOW TO SLIDE ACROSS MN FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS OR JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z SATURDAY. A WIDESPREAD 0.1 TO 0.3IN OF RAIN LOOKS LIKELY...STILL WITH THE BULK OF PRECIP FALLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS OF MOISTURE TO LINGER BEHIND THE LOW...AS THE 500MB TROUGH SET UP ACROSS MN AT 12Z SATURDAY MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE OVER BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH POSSIBLY SHIFTING IN FROM THE NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 KIWD/KCMX...WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. UNCERTAINTY MAINLY EXISTS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXTENT OF LOWERING CIGS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. KSAW...WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS SE FLOW PULLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. DO NOT THINK THAT FOG WILL RESULT AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST...PREFER A LOW STRATUS INSTEAD. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXTENT OF LOWEST CIGS AND FOG POTENTIAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 HIGH PRES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NE WINDS IN THE 15- 30KT RANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...STRONGEST OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TONIGHT/WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES. THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30KT ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON WED. A LOW PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF AND PASS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAVORABLY ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE TIP AND IN THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WL INCLUDE A GALE WARNING FOR LSZ264>266 FOR THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW WED NIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE FRI/SAT AS ANOTHER LOW PRES TROF SWEEPS THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ264>266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...TITUS MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
307 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 AT 07Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...FAR NWRN KS INTO NE CO. NORTHERLY WINDS WERE GUSTY AT 15 TO 30 MPH. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERED IN THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS BETWEEN STAPLETON AND AINSWORTH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 50S IN NWRN NEBR...TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SERN FA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO SRN AZ BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOC UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TRANSPORTING ANOMALOUSLY MOIST CONDITIONS INTO TEXAS...ERN NEW MEXICO...OKLA AND KS. IN FACT PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1 INCH ACROSS SWRN AND SRN NEBR. SHOWER CHANCES TODAY WILL MAINLY RANGE AS SLIGHT CHANCE AND LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA THIS MORNING AND ONLY ACROSS THE FAR SERN PANHANDLE IN SWRN NEBR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A LACK OF ANY MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER FORCING OVER WRN NEBR...THE FOCUS TODAY WILL RESIDE ACROSS COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT FROM NEAR LNK NE...THROUGH HAYS AND SCOTT CITY KS. CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS WRN NEBR SHOW A FAIRLY SATURATED H85 TO H5 LAYER. THIS MEANS SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF FA TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH. DUE TO MUCH COOLER H85 TEMPS OF 8C TO 10C...HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. KEPT HIGH VERY NEAR PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST AVBL MOS GUIDANCE. AS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT...STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR FROM SRN TX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TX PNHDL INTO WRN KS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF NCTRL BY LATE TONIGHT. LIKELY POPS INTO SWRN NEBR AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO INDICATION OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION FOR ANY THUNDER. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE MID RANGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WILL PUSH EAST IN TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. H85 WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL FORCE GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY. PWATS BY 12Z THURSDAY ARE RUNNING AROUND 1.1 INCHES PER THE NAM AND GFS FOR NORTH PLATTE. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...PWATS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE NEAR RECORD HIGHS. IN ADDITION TO ROBUST MOISTURE...DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE THURSDAY...FACILITATING EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION RIGHT THROUGH THE HEART OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE TRENDED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS FOR THURSDAY. ONE CAVEAT HERE IS THE NAM/S DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN LATER TONIGHT. THINKING HERE IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ONSET OF PCPN PER THE GFS SOLN...AS THE SURFACE HIGH IS SLOWER TO MIGRATE EAST TONIGHT. REGARDLESS...BY THURSDAY...A BROAD SWATH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WILL SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 0.5 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 83 SEEING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR BETTER. BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF SOLNS DEVELOP A LINE OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KS...WHICH SHEDS SOME DOUBT AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL FALL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...FAVORABLE LIFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO FACILITATE MENTION OF LIKELY POPS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SWRN NEBRASKA AS THE H5 LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS INTO THE BLACK HILLS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY NOONTIME FRIDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THANKS TO WESTERLY WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE PANHANDLE...THEN CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY EVENING...EFFECTIVELY LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND SHUTTING OFF ANY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS IN MIND...TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE COOL THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL RAIN. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...AFTER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A BENIGN COUPLE OF DAYS...A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NRN TIER OF STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL USHER IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SEEN THIS FALL SEASON TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SRLY WINDS WILL FORCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH FAVORABLE LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR PCPN...PRIMARILY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST OF A VTN-MHN-MCK LINE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER 08Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. MARGINAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN. TURNING TO OTHER ISSUES...THE WIND PROFILER NEAR TIF SHOWS 46KT WIND AT ABOUT 800 FEET AGL AND...NEAR RAP SHOWS 52KT. WITH SURFACE WIND 320-360 AT 5-10KT...SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO INCLUDE ANW...VTN...TIF AND MHN. BY THE TIME THE STONG LOW LEVEL WIND REACHES BBW-LBF-OGA...SURFACE WIND WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE 25KT OR LOWER. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERG SHORT TERM...ROBERG LONG TERM...BUTTLER AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 UPPER LEVEL BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 DEGREES...NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 TWO MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. FIRST WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 15 HOURS...WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT STILL A MILD AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND TEMPS TO BE MORE MID SEPTEMBER THAN MID OCTOBER IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN AND HIGHS REBOUND TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL AID IN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THEN THE LEADING WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH NEG LIFT INDEX VALUES AND EVEN SOME POSITIVE MUCAPE....SO INCLUDED SOME ISOLD T. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE MATURE UPPER CYCLONE MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SHEARING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE MID PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MADE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE MID TERM WITH TEMPERATURES AND TIMING. HAVE DROPPED THUNDER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AS UPPER ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. UPPED QPF AMOUNTS WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND 100KT JET STREAK DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH GULF OPEN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS 0.85 INCHES THIS MORNING AT 193 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND INCREASING TO 1.00 INCH THURSDAY MORNING WHICH IS SEVERAL STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE INCLUDED MODERATE RAINFALL IN GRIDS AND COULD POSSIBLY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. CONTINUED COOL THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARMUP THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. DRYING OUT FRIDAY WITH SCHC MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND NORTHERN PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST OF A VTN-MHN-MCK LINE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER 08Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. MARGINAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN. TURNING TO OTHER ISSUES...THE WIND PROFILER NEAR TIF SHOWS 46KT WIND AT ABOUT 800 FEET AGL AND...NEAR RAP SHOWS 52KT. WITH SURFACE WIND 320-360 AT 5-10KT...SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO INCLUDE ANW...VTN...TIF AND MHN. BY THE TIME THE STONG LOW LEVEL WIND REACHES BBW-LBF-OGA...SURFACE WIND WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE 25KT OR LOWER. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MASEK SHORT TERM...MASEK LONG TERM...POWER AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
418 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AGAIN BY APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO CLOSE THE WEEK OUT WITH TWO DRY DAYS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ORGANIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. UPSTREAM ACROSS MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO... A MORE WIDESPREAD BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE OBS SUGGEST THIS IS TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY MODELED... AND IN FACT SOME OF THE NEWER GUIDANCE FROM THE EC... HRRR AND THE NCAR ENSEMBLE HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE SOUTHWARD TREND. THUS EXPECT THIS BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE EASTWARD... ARRIVING IN WESTERN NY / NIAGARA FRONTIER REGION JUST AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FROM ABOUT THE NY STATE THRUWAY NORTH OVER LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY MIDDAY AND THE WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE WAVE... WITH THE SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD... EXPECT A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WITH A DECENT PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON DRY ACROSS WESTERN NY... ALTHOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA... WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 THIS MORNING SOUTH OF THE FRONT / SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO / AND HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NORTH OF THE FRONT / EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION/ WILL START OFF A BIT COOLER THIS MORNING / UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50/ AND WILL ONLY SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S. TONIGHT... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL INITIALLY INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA... STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW... AND THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT. LOWS ONLY MANAGE THE MID 50S IN MOST AREA... WITH A FEW DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR 60. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT... A WEAK WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA... WHICH WILL FORCE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS LINE... AND ALSO MENTIONED SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY BEING ADVERTISED. EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TAKING HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. INITIALLY SHALLOW COLD AIR AND LATE OCTOBER SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH THE DRY AIRMASS PROMOTING DEEPER MIXING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE RADIATING NIGHT CONDITIONS WITH COOLER GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...POTENTIALLY LOWER 30S FAVORED. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OVERHEAD. DESPITE THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. UPPER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INBOUND DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN UPPER CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST SHOULD BE DUE TO THE MERGING OF THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A FEATURE THAT IS RACING ACROSS THE PACIFIC. AN INCREASINGLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR WEST SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DIVERGENCE TOGETHER WITH A WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN AT THE LOWER LEVELS FOR SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH TIME. DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY DAY SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 50S OR NEAR 60 IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE NEXT PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER LIGHT IN TERMS OF QPF DESPITE THE ABOVE NOTED MERGING OF TWO FAIRLY PROMINENT FEATURES...SO WILL LEAN A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE...TOWARD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND RIGHT ON TARGET IN LINE WITH WPC. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST LATER ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY OR LATER HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH AT ABOUT THIS TIME THE MODELS START TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING... BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS NEAR KBUF/KIAG/KROC BETWEEN SUNRISE AND NOON... AND NEAR KART AROUND MIDDAY. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL BUT KART THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT AT KART WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE SITE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN MVFR VIS AROUND 4SM... BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. EXPECT A LULL IN RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TONIGHT. AGAIN A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN SOME MVFR CONDITIONS... OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FRIDAY...VFR. SATURDAY...VFR EARLY WITH MVFR/IFR AND SHOWERS LIKELY AT NIGHT. SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY THEN MVFR/VFR AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY...BUT MAY CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT DUE TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CHURCH NEAR TERM...CHURCH SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...TMA/ZAFF AVIATION...CHURCH MARINE...CHURCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT TO THE FORECAST AREA NORTHEAST. UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC. THE OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT WAS JUST APPROACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA TO QUICKLY END AS THE WEAKENING VORT MAX ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 AS OF 2330 UTC...THE OCCLUDING FRONT WAS PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS THE US HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND STRATUS IN TRAIL. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA THIS EVENING IN ACCORDANCE WITH RADAR TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE HRRR THROUGH ITS 22 UTC ITERATION && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SEPARATES. TONIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE STATE...SPREADING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS EXIT...DECENT SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS...AIDED BY AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT SHOULD SUPPORT GUST WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH EAST...AND LIGHT WINDS WEST WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. AFTER LOWS TONIGHT OF 35 NORTHWEST TO 45 SOUTHEAST...EXPECT HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015 THE LONG TERM IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY/FRIDAY. A COLORADO LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AHEAD OF THE LOW THURSDAY EVENING. THE 12 UTC GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALL HAVE THE CENTER TRAVERSING THE ND/SD BORDER BY FRIDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP DEFORMATION BANDED PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY PROPAGATE OFF TO THE EAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. TOTAL LIQUID ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY TRANSITION SOME RAIN TO SNOW. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S DURING THE DAY AND 20S/30S AT NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS...ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE...WAS LOCATED OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KISN...WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEARING WILL OCCUR SLOWLY OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...SO EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO OVERTAKE ALL SITES BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZH SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
409 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SHORT TERM... THERE HAS BEEN MUCH TALK AND MANY WATCHFUL EYES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND IT IS NOW HERE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SRN AZ EARLY THIS MORNING...DRAGGING PACIFIC MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUR WAY. THESE FEATURES WILL TAKE CARE OF THE CURRENT RAINSHIELD ACROSS NM/NW SOUTH PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE AND MORE DURING THE DAY. THEN A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF BEELINES ITS WAY FOR THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO GO ALL IN ON THE POPS FOR TONIGHT AT 100 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE LEND CONFIDENCE ON GOING WITH THE FULL POPS. THE HRRR AND HI-RES ARW BOTH WANT TO BRING THE GULF SURGE IN SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND BREAK OUT THE CWA WIDE RAINFALL DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT 100 PERCENT THIS WILL HAPPEN WENT AHEAD AND KEPT DEFINITE POPS ON THE CAPROCK AND LIKELY OFF BEFORE BREAKING OUT THE DEFINITE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND 00Z. IF THE GULF MOISTURE DOES INDEED MAKE A SURGE NORTH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...POPS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTHER SMALL CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD...LOWERED HIGHS OFF THE CAPROCK FOR CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO AS CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER. FLOOD WATCH IS TO GO INTO EFFECT WEDNESDAY AT 18Z. AGREE WITH THINKING OF ISSUING SHIFT SO IT WILL BE LEFT AS IS. QPF VALUES STILL SHOW VALUES OF 1-3 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER STILL FOR DAYS 1-2...SO PONDING...PLAYA OVERRUNNING...STREETS/ROADWAYS IN URBAN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED. .LONG TERM... THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO EASE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS STILL ARE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL ON THURSDAY AND WITH MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE TRAINING OF STORMS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DEEP RESULTING IN A HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW AS EXPECTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SATURATED SOUNDINGS. MIXED LAYER INSTABILITIES WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN 700 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. AFTER A DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE A BRIEF RETURN FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THERE EXISTS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO HOW SHARP THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A BOOST TO SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES SATURDAY EVENING. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ025- 026-031-032-037-038-043-044. FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042. && $$ 74/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .UPDATE...06Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW. && .AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AROUND THE AUS TERMINAL AT 06Z. THE STRATUS WILL QUICKLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT REACHING SAT 07Z-08Z AND DRT 09Z-10Z. WHILE INITIALLY MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING...CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO IFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT. HRRR AND MOS AT SOME SITES INDICATE THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS AROUND AND AFTER SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOWER AT THE MOMENT AND NOT INDICATED IN TAFS. IN ADDITION...PATCHY -RA AND A FEW -SHRAS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 12Z. CEILINGS WILL BE REMAIN IFR THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-16Z AT AUS/SAT AND 17Z AT DRT...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRAS AND A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INDICATED IN ALL TAFS WITH PROB30. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 70 82 69 79 / 40 30 60 70 80 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 69 83 68 80 / 40 20 70 70 80 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 71 84 70 81 / 40 30 70 70 80 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 68 80 67 78 / 30 30 60 70 80 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 71 84 70 82 / 40 60 50 60 40 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 68 80 67 78 / 30 20 50 70 80 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 83 70 83 69 82 / 40 50 70 70 70 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 84 70 82 69 79 / 40 30 70 70 80 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 85 71 83 70 79 / 40 20 60 70 80 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 71 83 71 81 / 40 40 70 70 80 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 72 85 71 82 / 40 40 70 70 80 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
933 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. SNOW LEVEL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 9000 TO 9500 FEET NORTH TO 10000 FEET SOUTH. BEST ACCUMULATION HAS OCCURRED ABOVE 10000 FEET AND WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING THROUGH NOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY HELPING TO SHOW AN AREA OF LIFT OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT BERTHOUD PASS ARE REPORTING EAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...SO STRONG UPSLOPE IS STILL IN PLACE. EASTERLY WINDS FROM 750MB TO 600MB WILL DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH CAUSING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE AND END LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SO STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS ARE A LITTLE OFF ON THE TIMING BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. AS THE 12Z MODELS COME IN...WILL TRY AND PIN POINT WHEN AND WHERE THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ARIZONA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE 4 CORNERS AREA BY 12Z THU. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER NERN CO TODAY AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT. FOR TODAY...PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF I-70 AND NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER AREA. WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE IN PLACE AND SOME WK ASCENT IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN FURTHER SOUTH BY 12Z. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO SO WILL KEEP IN HIGH POPS FOR THE MTNS...FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS THRU MIDDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10000 FT ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX DOWN TO 9000 FEET OR SO. FOR THIS AFTN UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN HOWEVER QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS STILL SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THRU THE AFTN SO WILL KEEP IN LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER PCPN BY LATE AFTN MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE FM NW TO SE AS THE BEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES SHIFT MORE TO THE S AND SE. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NERN CO. BY TONIGHT THE BEST QG ASCENT WILL STAY MOSTLY TO THE S AND SE OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME WK VERTICAL VELOCITIES OVER THE PLAINS. THUS WILL KEEP IN LIKELY POPS OVER THE ECNTRL PLAINS BUT WILL LOWER THEM TO CHC ALONG MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SELY LOW LVL FLOW WILL KEEP IN SOME HIGHER POPS OVER ZNS 34 AND 37 BUT ONLY HAVE A CHC IN MTN AREAS NORTH OF I-70. MEANWHILE BY LATE TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARS THE 4 CORNERS AREA WILL SEE A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MID LVL ASCENT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN AREAS OF CWA BY 12Z ON THU. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 MODELS HAVE A WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AT 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS MODERATELY STRONG QG UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGGED ON THURSDAY AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS ALL DOWNWARD MOTION THEE REST OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WIND IS PROGGED ON THURSDAY...WITH WEAK DRAINAGE PATTERNS THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THERE IS NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BY AFTERNOON...THEN DRAINAGE AGAIN FRIDAY OVERNIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS PLENTY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING SUNRISE...MOISTURE STARTS TO DECREASE. FRIDAY DRIES OUT PARTIALLY...BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS BETTER DRYING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE PROGGED LATE DAY THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE IS EVEN LESS PROGGED LATE DAY FRIDAY AND ONLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS ALL SHOW FAIRLY DECENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE QPF FIELDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. IT DECREASES THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A TAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN SOME OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY EVENING. WILL NEED DECENT POPS ON THURSDAY...30-70%S...EVEN A TAD OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL TAPER POPS DOWN BY MID EVENING AND MORE SO AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GO WITH 10-40%S POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-4 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER AGAIN. FOR THE LATER DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY...THEN WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE INCREASE INTO MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT WITH THE TROUGH NOR IS THE COLDER AIR. WILL KEEP MINIMAL POPS GOING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 RAIN...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z. CEILINGS AS LOW AS 300 FEET WILL LIFT AFTER 18Z BUT EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 3000 FEET THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED 12Z TO 18Z THURSDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ033-034. && $$ UPDATE...MEIER SHORT TERM...RPK LONG TERM...RJK AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
740 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 740 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPDATED SOME OF THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS THRU THU MORNING AND UPDATED FIRE WEATHER GRIDS THRU THE SAME PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 A FRONT HAS MOVED THRU THE KCOS AND KPUB AREAS THIS MORNING... BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. PCPN SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD...ALTHOUGH ECHOES ON RADAR ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN PLAINS BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY REPORTS OF PCPN. AN UPR LOW CENTER WL BE OVR SRN AZ TODAY...AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL OR NERN AZ BY 12Z THU. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW NORTHEAST SFC WINDS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE GFS...NAM AND NSSL 4KM WRF SHOW PCPN BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OVR THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR DOES NOT SHOW PCPN BEING AS WIDESPREAD...MAINLY DEVELOPING UPSLOPE PCPN ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN MTNS...AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE MTN AREAS...AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS MAINLY DRY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOW AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER PCPN MOVING INTO THE SWRN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE HRRR ONLY SHOWS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS...WRF AND NAM. TEMPS TODAY WL BE MUCH COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE. FOR THIS EVENING THE NAM SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE PCPN ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WL STILL BE AT LEAST SCT CHANCES FOR PCPN...THE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE PCPN THAN THE NAM...ESPECIALLY NR THE ERN BORDER. DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVR THE AREA...INCREASING PCPN COVERAGE ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...PCPN CHANCES DECREASE OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...WL KEEP HIGH POPS OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT IS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN BULLSEYES MAY END UP...BUT THE FAR SERN PLAINS SEEM TO BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA THRU THE PERIOD FOR SOME OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE HIGHER MTN AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WL PROBABLY SEE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH LIFTING THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW...NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW THEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATING RAIN SHOWERS...AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS JET CORE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH COLD CORE OF LOW SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS LOOK REMAIN BETWEEN 9K AND 10K FEET THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST ACCUMS REMAIN AOA 10K FEET...THOUGH COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SNOW MIXING DOWN TO AROUND 8K FEET UNDER THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. WITH THE TAD SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD. FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PASSING NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM SENDS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BRIEFLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST 00Z RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE 06Z NAM...PIN POINTING TO THE PIKES PEAK REGION WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT CURRENT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH MAY NEED TO INCREASE COVERAGE IF LATER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS WETTER SOLUTION. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISHING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER WEATHER IN THE OFFING FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY. SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WARMER DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 KALS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE KALS AREA THRU THE DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT PCPN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE OR END FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. KCOS IS EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS AT TIMES BEING ON THE LOW SIDE OF VFR. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT. KPUB SHOULD SEE LOW VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060- 066-068-073-075-080-082. && $$ UPDATE...28 SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 A FRONT HAS MOVED THRU THE KCOS AND KPUB AREAS THIS MORNING... BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. PCPN SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD...ALTHOUGH ECHOES ON RADAR ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN PLAINS BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY REPORTS OF PCPN. AN UPR LOW CENTER WL BE OVR SRN AZ TODAY...AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL OR NERN AZ BY 12Z THU. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW NORTHEAST SFC WINDS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE GFS...NAM AND NSSL 4KM WRF SHOW PCPN BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OVR THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR DOES NOT SHOW PCPN BEING AS WIDESPREAD...MAINLY DEVELOPING UPSLOPE PCPN ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN MTNS...AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE MTN AREAS...AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS MAINLY DRY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOW AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER PCPN MOVING INTO THE SWRN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE HRRR ONLY SHOWS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS...WRF AND NAM. TEMPS TODAY WL BE MUCH COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE. FOR THIS EVENING THE NAM SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE PCPN ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WL STILL BE AT LEAST SCT CHANCES FOR PCPN...THE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE PCPN THAN THE NAM...ESPECIALLY NR THE ERN BORDER. DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVR THE AREA...INCREASING PCPN COVERAGE ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...PCPN CHANCES DECREASE OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...WL KEEP HIGH POPS OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT IS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN BULLSEYES MAY END UP...BUT THE FAR SERN PLAINS SEEM TO BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA THRU THE PERIOD FOR SOME OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE HIGHER MTN AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WL PROBABLY SEE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH LIFTING THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW...NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW THEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATING RAIN SHOWERS...AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS JET CORE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH COLD CORE OF LOW SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS LOOK REMAIN BETWEEN 9K AND 10K FEET THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST ACCUMS REMAIN AOA 10K FEET...THOUGH COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SNOW MIXING DOWN TO AROUND 8K FEET UNDER THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. WITH THE TAD SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD. FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PASSING NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM SENDS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BRIEFLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST 00Z RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE 06Z NAM...PIN POINTING TO THE PIKES PEAK REGION WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT CURRENT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH MAY NEED TO INCREASE COVERAGE IF LATER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS WETTER SOLUTION. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISHING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER WEATHER IN THE OFFING FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY. SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WARMER DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 KALS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE KALS AREA THRU THE DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT PCPN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE OR END FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. KCOS IS EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS AT TIMES BEING ON THE LOW SIDE OF VFR. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THRU TONIGHT. KPUB SHOULD SEE LOW VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060- 066-068-073-075-080-082. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 15z/10am water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short-wave trough tracking eastward across western Ontario/Minnesota...while a more subtle wave is noted further south across western Iowa. A cluster of showers/storms is ongoing across central Iowa...with isolated showers extending further southeastward into central Illinois. Models are not handling the current situation particularly well...with the 12z NAM missing the Iowa convection completely. Even the higher-res models such as the HRRR and Rapid Refresh that show the Iowa convection are not picking up on the showers further southeast. As a result...have relied mainly on satellite/radar loops for the short-term forecast update. Have added slight chance PoPs for showers/thunder across nearly the entire CWA through early afternoon. Have increased PoPs northwest of the Illinois River to go with scattered wording, as radar timing tools are showing the tail end of the Iowa convection brushing this area over the next 2-4 hours. Aside from the spotty showers...the main weather story today will be the unseasonably warm conditions. With a good deal of sunshine and continued southwesterly winds...afternoon high temperatures will once again top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 An MCV pushing across Illinois early this morning will keep showers and isolated thunderstorms going past sunrise generally along I-72 and surrounding counties. Thunder potential should diminish toward sunrise as the vort max becomes more elongated with less DPVA. Will gradually diminish PoPs through mid-morning across our central counties. Satellite and radar analysis shows our next shortwave should arrive in NW Illinois this afternoon, triggering more showers and a few storms NW of the Illinois river. Only utilized slight chance PoPs for now, but localized areas could see a tenth of an inch or more of rain if any storms develop. Elevated instability appears sufficient for thunder, and SPC Day 1 outlook includes our northern counties in General Thunder. Temperatures today could be highly variable depending on what areas see clearing the longest. Will stay the course with highs near guidance numbers in the upper 70s to low 80s, as steady southwest winds mix down a mid-level warm layer. Temps on Tuesday climbed rapidly as clearing developed in the mid-high cloud cover, and today should be similar. NW and SE areas should be on the cooler side of that range due to showers early in the SE and late in the NW. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 Forecast increasingly problematic with short waves moving into the region from the deep upper low settling over the desert SW. Models not handling them well, and fumbling the QPF fields as a result. Tonight dry in the models for the most part, but a front moving through with another pulse of energy riding along it. Timing of the pulse is in more question than the boundary. GFS is a little more diffuse than the NAM and the ECMWF that move along later in the overnight. Either way, keeping some chance and slight chance pops in for the low confidence forecast. Same boundary settling in could provide some focus for day time showers across the middle of the state, and slights across the CWA to reflect it for the meantime. Models are getting more and more assertive with moisture into the region and increasing the showers and speeding up the timing of the next system. The upper low over the SW finally kicks out and through the Midwest bringing the best precip chances in the forecast for this weekend...Friday and Saturday...moving up the time frame to impact the western portions of the state by 18z on Friday. Have kept the mention of thunder in the southern half of the CWA for Saturday as the front settles into the area with the max heat of the afternoon. Temps a little more seasonal going into the work week with highs in the lower 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s. Timing for the next wave/chance of precip varied in models by 24-36 hrs Tues/Wed. Keeping the pops low for now, slightly lower than the blends, just as a place holder and waiting for more consensus. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 The residual effects of a shortwave are being felt across central Illinois early this morning, with spotty showers or sprinkles drifting from west to east. Any chance of measurable rain appears to have passed east of the terminals based on radar and satellite trends. Therefore, no precip was included in any 12z TAFs. A cold front will reach NW IL by 00z/7pm today, then track south- southeast across our area tonight. Precip chances will increase ahead of the front from NW to SE, beginning near PIA this afternoon. Sounding analysis shows relatively limited moisture during the times of peak lift, so no rain was included in the TAFs at this point. However, based on the models missing the extent of last nights rain and isolated storms, would not be surprised to see a repeat tonight with the cold front. Winds will generally remain southwest today, with gusts to 20-25kt from mid-morning to mid-afternoon. Gusts will dissipate later this afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens in the vicinity of the cold front. Behind the cold front, winds will eventually shift around to the north later tonight. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SHORT TERM...Shimon LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1036 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .UPDATE... COMPACT MID LEVEL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INTO ONTARIO WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS SE MICHIGAN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THE GENERAL COLUMN DESCENT AND CONTINUED SOLID DEPTH TO THE LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER /BELOW 7K FT/ POINTS TO LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO SUNSET. THIS WARRANTS A REDUCTION IN POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXISTING THICKER CANOPY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD WILL STEADILY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING AT LEAST PERIODIC INTERVALS OF OPEN SKY ARE POSSIBLE. BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AT THE SAME TIME INDICATE THAT HIGHS IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES OR JUST ABOVE ARE STILL ATTAINABLE DESPITE THE SLOWER EARLY DAY RESPONSE BENEATH THE CLOUDS. SIMPLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 700 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 RAIN SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. EARLIER RAINFALL HAS ADDED SOME MOISTURE TO THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH IS LEADING TO SOME MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS...THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY PTK/FNT/MBS DURING THE MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE WILL SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FOR DTW...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND METRO DETROIT SHOULD HINDER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS NOW ADVANCING IN FROM THE WEST WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR TWO. S-SW WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. GUSTS SHOULD HOLD BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE GRADIENT WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING...WHICH MAY PREVENT WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH PAST SUNSET. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * LOW IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT TODAY AND THIS EVENING. * LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 329 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT A MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WAS RELATIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF YESTERDAY WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT TO OVERCOME SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. IN FACT...PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE AREA WILL TOP ONE INCH THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS MID LEVEL FRONT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS OF 630Z...THIS SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER METRO CHICAGO AND MOVING NORTHEAST. IT WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SE MI IN THE 12 TO 15 Z TIME FRAME. THE SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THIS WAVE SUGGESTS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE TOO WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE. REGIONAL RADAR ALONG WITH THE RECENT HRRR SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MORE PROLONGED AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED GENERALLY NORTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR WHERE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENSUES FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIFT THE SFC WARM FRONT /NOW EXTENDING ACROSS CNTL LOWER MI AND THE TIP OF THE THUMB/ NORTHWARD...PLACING ALL OF SE MI WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF RESIDUAL MID CLOUDS. THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES AND THE EXPECTATION OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI TONIGHT /3-9Z/...DRIVEN THROUGH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DEEP LAYER FRONTAL FORCING ACTING UPON A LOW-MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE PRECEDING THE SFC FRONT AND SOME DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES THIS WEEK. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN TENDS TO KEEP MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC REFLECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE REGION. WE WILL RESIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET STREAM THUS SOMEWHAT MILD TEMPERATURES...AT OR JUST BELOW LATE OCTOBER AVERAGES...WILL CONTINUE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH BUT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL YIELD SOME DEGREE OF SHALLOW CAA. MORE NOTABLY THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL TAKE A BIG HIT ABOVE 900MB WITH PWATS FALLING TO BELOW A HALF INCH. THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S AS NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND SUCH A DRY AIRMASS. THOUGH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION...COOL EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 100MB WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. CHANGES THEN COME TO THE PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS EJECTING NE THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF LOWER MI BUT A LL JET SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MI WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO START DRIFTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STRING OUT NE TO SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MI AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS FURTHER NE. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP ONGOING THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FOR THE START OF THE WEEK BUT MODELS INDICATE THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SO WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY DIVING THROUGH THE TROUGH DURING THAT TIME. MARINE... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS LOW HAS PULLED A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH THE REGION WHICH HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE LAKES KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS TEMPERED...MAXING OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BURST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX BUT NOT BEFORE VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL SEND THE HIGHER WAVES DOWN THE AXIS OF THE LAKE TOWARD. WAVES POSSIBLE REACHING 4 FEET MAY BRUSH THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE THUMB THURSDAY NIGHT. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE.......MR AVIATION.....SC SHORT TERM...SC LONG TERM....DRK MARINE.......DRK YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
700 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .AVIATION... RAIN SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. EARLIER RAINFALL HAS ADDED SOME MOISTURE TO THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH IS LEADING TO SOME MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS...THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL AFFECT MAINLY PTK/FNT/MBS DURING THE MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE WILL SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FOR DTW...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND METRO DETROIT SHOULD HINDER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS NOW ADVANCING IN FROM THE WEST WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY ONLY LAST AN HOUR OR TWO. S-SW WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. GUSTS SHOULD HOLD BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE GRADIENT WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING...WHICH MAY PREVENT WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH PAST SUNSET. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * LOW IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT TODAY AND THIS EVENING. * LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 329 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT A MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WAS RELATIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF YESTERDAY WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT TO OVERCOME SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. IN FACT...PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE AREA WILL TOP ONE INCH THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS MID LEVEL FRONT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS OF 630Z...THIS SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER METRO CHICAGO AND MOVING NORTHEAST. IT WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SE MI IN THE 12 TO 15 Z TIME FRAME. THE SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THIS WAVE SUGGESTS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE TOO WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE. REGIONAL RADAR ALONG WITH THE RECENT HRRR SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MORE PROLONGED AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED GENERALLY NORTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR WHERE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENSUES FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIFT THE SFC WARM FRONT /NOW EXTENDING ACROSS CNTL LOWER MI AND THE TIP OF THE THUMB/ NORTHWARD...PLACING ALL OF SE MI WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF RESIDUAL MID CLOUDS. THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES AND THE EXPECTATION OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI TONIGHT /3-9Z/...DRIVEN THROUGH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DEEP LAYER FRONTAL FORCING ACTING UPON A LOW-MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE PRECEDING THE SFC FRONT AND SOME DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES THIS WEEK. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN TENDS TO KEEP MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC REFLECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE REGION. WE WILL RESIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET STREAM THUS SOMEWHAT MILD TEMPERATURES...AT OR JUST BELOW LATE OCTOBER AVERAGES...WILL CONTINUE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH BUT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL YIELD SOME DEGREE OF SHALLOW CAA. MORE NOTABLY THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL TAKE A BIG HIT ABOVE 900MB WITH PWATS FALLING TO BELOW A HALF INCH. THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S AS NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND SUCH A DRY AIRMASS. THOUGH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION...COOL EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 100MB WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. CHANGES THEN COME TO THE PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS EJECTING NE THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF LOWER MI BUT A LL JET SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MI WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO START DRIFTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STRING OUT NE TO SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MI AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS FURTHER NE. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP ONGOING THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FOR THE START OF THE WEEK BUT MODELS INDICATE THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SO WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY DIVING THROUGH THE TROUGH DURING THAT TIME. MARINE... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS LOW HAS PULLED A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH THE REGION WHICH HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE LAKES KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS TEMPERED...MAXING OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BURST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX BUT NOT BEFORE VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL SEND THE HIGHER WAVES DOWN THE AXIS OF THE LAKE TOWARD. WAVES POSSIBLE REACHING 4 FEET MAY BRUSH THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE THUMB THURSDAY NIGHT. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....SC SHORT TERM...SC LONG TERM....DRK MARINE.......DRK YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
705 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AGAIN BY APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO CLOSE THE WEEK OUT WITH TWO DRY DAYS. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ORGANIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY. UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE... A MORE WIDESPREAD BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE OBS SUGGEST THIS IS TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY MODELED... AND IN FACT SOME OF THE NEWER GUIDANCE FROM THE EC... HRRR AND THE NCAR ENSEMBLE HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE SOUTHWARD TREND. THUS EXPECT THIS BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE EASTWARD... ARRIVING IN WESTERN NY / NIAGARA FRONTIER REGION JUST AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FROM ABOUT THE NY STATE THRUWAY NORTH OVER LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY MIDDAY AND THE WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE WAVE... WITH THE SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD... EXPECT A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WITH A DECENT PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON DRY ACROSS WESTERN NY... ALTHOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA... WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 THIS MORNING SOUTH OF THE FRONT / SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO / AND HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NORTH OF THE FRONT / EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION/ WILL START OFF A BIT COOLER THIS MORNING / UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50/ AND WILL ONLY SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S. TONIGHT... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL INITIALLY INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA... STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW... AND THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT. LOWS ONLY MANAGE THE MID 50S IN MOST AREA... WITH A FEW DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR 60. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT... A WEAK WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA... WHICH WILL FORCE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS LINE... AND ALSO MENTIONED SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY BEING ADVERTISED. EXCELLENT SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TAKING HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. INITIALLY SHALLOW COLD AIR AND LATE OCTOBER SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH THE DRY AIRMASS PROMOTING DEEPER MIXING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE RADIATING NIGHT CONDITIONS WITH COOLER GUIDANCE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...POTENTIALLY LOWER 30S FAVORED. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OVERHEAD. DESPITE THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S. UPPER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INBOUND DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN UPPER CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST SHOULD BE DUE TO THE MERGING OF THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A FEATURE THAT IS RACING ACROSS THE PACIFIC. AN INCREASINGLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TO OUR WEST SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DIVERGENCE TOGETHER WITH A WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN AT THE LOWER LEVELS FOR SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH TIME. DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY DAY SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 50S OR NEAR 60 IN DOWNSLOPING REGIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE NEXT PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER LIGHT IN TERMS OF QPF DESPITE THE ABOVE NOTED MERGING OF TWO FAIRLY PROMINENT FEATURES...SO WILL LEAN A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE...TOWARD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND RIGHT ON TARGET IN LINE WITH WPC. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST LATER ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY OR LATER HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH AT ABOUT THIS TIME THE MODELS START TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS KBUF/KIAG/KROC THIS MORNING / AND EVENTUALLY TO KART BY MIDDAY/ WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VISBY REDUCTIONS TO ABOUT 4SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SHOWERS. AT KART... MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. AGAIN A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT / EARLY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FRIDAY...VFR. SATURDAY...VFR EARLY WITH MVFR/IFR AND SHOWERS LIKELY AT NIGHT. SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY THEN MVFR/VFR AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY...BUT MAY CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT DUE TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CHURCH NEAR TERM...CHURCH SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...TMA/ZAFF AVIATION...CHURCH MARINE...CHURCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .AVIATION... AFTER BRIEF TS AND RA ACTIVITY AT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE MAIN EVENT OCCURS. CDS HAS BEEN MOVED TO MVFR AT 1500Z FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING EAST ACROSS CASTRO AND SWISHER COUNTIES THIS MORNING. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING INTO ALL TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY DELAY IN SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE COULD DELAY THIS DOWNGRADE OF CATEGORY. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL IMPACT VISIBILITIES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/ SHORT TERM... THERE HAS BEEN MUCH TALK AND MANY WATCHFUL EYES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND IT IS NOW HERE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SRN AZ EARLY THIS MORNING...DRAGGING PACIFIC MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUR WAY. THESE FEATURES WILL TAKE CARE OF THE CURRENT RAINSHIELD ACROSS NM/NW SOUTH PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE AND MORE DURING THE DAY. THEN A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF BEELINES ITS WAY FOR THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO GO ALL IN ON THE POPS FOR TONIGHT AT 100 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE LEND CONFIDENCE ON GOING WITH THE FULL POPS. THE HRRR AND HI-RES ARW BOTH WANT TO BRING THE GULF SURGE IN SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND BREAK OUT THE CWA WIDE RAINFALL DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT 100 PERCENT THIS WILL HAPPEN WENT AHEAD AND KEPT DEFINITE POPS ON THE CAPROCK AND LIKELY OFF BEFORE BREAKING OUT THE DEFINITE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND 00Z. IF THE GULF MOISTURE DOES INDEED MAKE A SURGE NORTH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...POPS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTHER SMALL CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD...LOWERED HIGHS OFF THE CAPROCK FOR CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO AS CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER. FLOOD WATCH IS TO GO INTO EFFECT WEDNESDAY AT 18Z. AGREE WITH THINKING OF ISSUING SHIFT SO IT WILL BE LEFT AS IS. QPF VALUES STILL SHOW VALUES OF 1-3 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER STILL FOR DAYS 1-2...SO PONDING...PLAYA OVERRUNNING...STREETS/ROADWAYS IN URBAN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED. LONG TERM... THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO EASE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS STILL ARE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL ON THURSDAY AND WITH MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE TRAINING OF STORMS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DEEP RESULTING IN A HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW AS EXPECTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SATURATED SOUNDINGS. MIXED LAYER INSTABILITIES WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN 700 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. AFTER A DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE A BRIEF RETURN FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THERE EXISTS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO HOW SHARP THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A BOOST TO SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES SATURDAY EVENING. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ025- 026-031-032-037-038-043-044. FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042. && $$ 74/01/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
444 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 439 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPDATED TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HI RES PROGS. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS. HOWEVER...HRRR SHOWS GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND AGREES WITH OTHER HIGH RES MODELS THAT SHOW A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR. BEST POPS REMAIN OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS AND RATON MESA AREA OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE HYR TRRN. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WAVE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH THU MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE POPS INTACT FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK. TOP OF PIKES PEAK FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD IN LATE OCTOBER. ROSE && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ARIZONA OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...THERE IS PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING NORTHWARD. THE MODELS HAVE HAD THE GENERAL IDEA OF DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO COLORADO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS... INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC...APPEAR TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE FINER DETAILS. POP GRIDS HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE MODELS. HIGHEST POPS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. STILL KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY OR DEFINITE CATEGORY OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ON THURSDAY...AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO LIFT FROM THE LOW PASSING OVER THE REGION. BY THE AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE DRYING BEGINNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AND WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORIES DUE TO IMPACTS WITH THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON. WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY... ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING. SOME IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW INCLUDE WOLF CREEK PASS BECOMING ICY WITH BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF A LOST HUNTER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE SNOWY WEATHER. --PGW-- .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE NE INTO EASTERN WY THU NIGHT...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE STATE ON FRI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP TO NEAR 70F FOR FRI. LOW TEMPS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL THREATEN THE SLV AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS STILL MAINTAIN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SAT MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S ON SAT...THEN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SUN. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY... TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS PLACES THIS UPPER FEATURE WELL TO THE NORTH...FOR JUST A GLANCING BLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE EC OFFERS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOOK TO THIS FEATURE...PROVIDING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES MON AND TUE. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE EC FOR MON AND TUE...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. BY WED THE EC PAINTS A RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW. BOTH SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK. MOORE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. SO FAR...VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STAYING MOSTLY VFR AND MVFR AND ANTICIPATE THIS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SAN LUIS VALLY OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG THURSDAY MORNING. CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUDS WILL HAMPER SURFACE COOLING. AT KCOS NORTH WINDS SHOULD HAMPER FOG DEVELOPMENT. ON THURSDAY...TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. --PGW-- && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060- 066-068-073-075-080-082. && $$ UPDATE...ROSE SHORT TERM...PGW LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS PUEBLO CO
319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ARIZONA OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...THERE IS PLENTY OF ACTIVITY OVER NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING NORTHWARD. THE MODELS HAVE HAD THE GENERAL IDEA OF DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO COLORADO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS... INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC...APPEAR TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE FINER DETAILS. POP GRIDS HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE MODELS. HIGHEST POPS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. STILL KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY OR DEFINITE CATEGORY OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. ON THURSDAY...AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO LIFT FROM THE LOW PASSING OVER THE REGION. BY THE AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE DRYING BEGINNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AND WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORIES DUE TO IMPACTS WITH THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON. WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY... ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING. SOME IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW INCLUDE WOLF CREEK PASS BECOMING ICY WITH BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF A LOST HUNTER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE SNOWY WEATHER. --PGW-- .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE NE INTO EASTERN WY THU NIGHT...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE STATE ON FRI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP TO NEAR 70F FOR FRI. LOW TEMPS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL THREATEN THE SLV AND HIGH VALLEYS FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS STILL MAINTAIN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SAT MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S ON SAT...THEN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SUN. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY... TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS PLACES THIS UPPER FEATURE WELL TO THE NORTH...FOR JUST A GLANCING BLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE EC OFFERS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOOK TO THIS FEATURE...PROVIDING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES MON AND TUE. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE EC FOR MON AND TUE...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. BY WED THE EC PAINTS A RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW. BOTH SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK. MOORE && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. SO FAR...VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN STAYING MOSTLY VFR AND MVFR AND ANTICIPATE THIS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SAN LUIS VALLY OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG THURSDAY MORNING. CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUDS WILL HAMPER SURFACE COOLING. AT KCOS NORTH WINDS SHOULD HAMPER FOG DEVELOPMENT. ON THURSDAY...TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. --PGW-- && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060- 066-068-073-075-080-082. && $$ SHORT TERM...PGW LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1134 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 INCREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON KEEPING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL OVER THE REGION. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT BEST FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION COULD REMAIN DURING THE EVENING ALONG INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. --PGW-- UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPDATED SOME OF THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS THRU THU MORNING AND UPDATED FIRE WEATHER GRIDS THRU THE SAME PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 A FRONT HAS MOVED THRU THE KCOS AND KPUB AREAS THIS MORNING... BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. PCPN SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD...ALTHOUGH ECHOES ON RADAR ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN PLAINS BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY REPORTS OF PCPN. AN UPR LOW CENTER WL BE OVR SRN AZ TODAY...AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL OR NERN AZ BY 12Z THU. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW NORTHEAST SFC WINDS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE GFS...NAM AND NSSL 4KM WRF SHOW PCPN BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OVR THE FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR DOES NOT SHOW PCPN BEING AS WIDESPREAD...MAINLY DEVELOPING UPSLOPE PCPN ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN MTNS...AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE MTN AREAS...AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE SERN PLAINS MAINLY DRY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOW AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER PCPN MOVING INTO THE SWRN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE HRRR ONLY SHOWS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS...WRF AND NAM. TEMPS TODAY WL BE MUCH COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE. FOR THIS EVENING THE NAM SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE PCPN ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WL STILL BE AT LEAST SCT CHANCES FOR PCPN...THE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE PCPN THAN THE NAM...ESPECIALLY NR THE ERN BORDER. DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVR THE AREA...INCREASING PCPN COVERAGE ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...PCPN CHANCES DECREASE OVR WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...WL KEEP HIGH POPS OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. IT IS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN BULLSEYES MAY END UP...BUT THE FAR SERN PLAINS SEEM TO BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA THRU THE PERIOD FOR SOME OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE HIGHER MTN AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WL PROBABLY SEE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH LIFTING THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW...NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW THEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATING RAIN SHOWERS...AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS SHIFTING EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS JET CORE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH COLD CORE OF LOW SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS LOOK REMAIN BETWEEN 9K AND 10K FEET THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST ACCUMS REMAIN AOA 10K FEET...THOUGH COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SNOW MIXING DOWN TO AROUND 8K FEET UNDER THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. WITH THE TAD SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ZONES THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD. FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PASSING NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM SENDS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BRIEFLY WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST 00Z RUNS OF GFS AND ECMWF...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE 06Z NAM...PIN POINTING TO THE PIKES PEAK REGION WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT CURRENT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH MAY NEED TO INCREASE COVERAGE IF LATER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS WETTER SOLUTION. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISHING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER WEATHER IN THE OFFING FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY. SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WARMER DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015 SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING KEEPING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF SITES. DURING THE EVENING...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP FOG OUT OF KCOS...HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER WINDS FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KPUB. AT KALS...ANY CHANCES FOR FOG DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...AND CURRENTLY KEPT FOG OUT OF THE TAF. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060- 066-068-073-075-080-082. && $$ UPDATE...PGW SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
514 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS OCCURRED BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. BELIEVE LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO SOME RIVER VALLEYS. THE SREF GUIDANCE PLUS GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATED LITTLE FOG. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONTROLLING THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAKING IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BELIEVE THE FORECAST AREA WILL STAY DRY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TOMORROW. OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER...BY NEARLY 15-20 DEGREES...INDICATING THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE HAS INCREASED. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE IMPROVED CHANCES FOR FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING AGS/OGB. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NC/SC AND UTILIZING THE CROSSOVER TEMP METHOD VSBYS COULD FALL AS LOW AS 1/2SM AT AGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. UPDATED THE TERMINALS TO HIT THE FOG HARDER AT AGS INCLUDING A PREVAILING GROUP OF IFR VSBYS AFTER 10Z WITH POSSIBLE LIFR VSBYS THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS AT OGB 09Z- 12Z. SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR OTHER TERMINALS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING FOG AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...HC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 A vigorous short-wave trough currently tracking into the western Great Lakes will help flatten the prevailing upper ridge across the eastern CONUS and drive a weak cold front southward tonight. The boundary is expected to become parallel to the upper flow and eventually stall across central Illinois late tonight. Forecast soundings continue to show an overall lack of deep-layer moisture for the boundary to work with, so am not expecting much in the way of precip as it approaches. The NAM is showing a totally dry forecast tonight, while both the HRRR and Rapid Refresh suggest at least isolated showers across the northern half of the KILX CWA. 19z/2pm radar imagery shows an area of dissipating showers across eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois that will stay mainly north of the area late this afternoon. Think there will be just enough mid- level moisture present to warrant slight chance PoPs ahead of the front tonight...mainly along/north of the I-72 corridor. Overnight low temperatures will once again be on the mild side, with readings remaining in the lower to middle 50s. && .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 The stalled cold front over the area will slowly sag south on Thursday but then become washed out Thursday night into Friday as mid level ridging returns to the area with continued dry and very warm conditions. However, this will temporary as another weather system will push into the area Friday with a much better chance of pcpn across the CWA. Pcpn should begin to move into western parts of the CWA Friday morning, but spread across the remainder of the area Friday afternoon through Friday night. Models in good agreement with timing and location of this front through the end of the week and have high confidence in the expected outcome. So pops will remain in the likely category over the area Friday night and then in the southeast on Saturday. The chance of pcpn will remain across the rest of the area during the day Saturday as models have some differences on the speed of the next area of high pressure moving into the CWA. Most of pcpn will be just showers, but isolated thunder will be possible Fri night. Temps through end of the week and into the weekend will still be above normal across the whole area. The later part of the weekend will be dry with temps around to just below normal. This dry weather will continue across the area into the beginning of next week while temps will remain around normal to just above normal in some areas. Toward the middle of the week, another weather system will move into the area with another chance of showers for Tue through Wed. GFS and ECMWF show some differences on extent and timing of pcpn, but both agree that pcpn is possible. Current indications are that behind this mid week system, temps should drop to just below normal...if only for a brief period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 Southwesterly winds gusting to around 20kt will continue throughout the afternoon before subsiding to less than 10kt by sunset. Winds will gradually become light/variable as a cold front sags slowly southward into central Illinois tonight. Front will have very little low-level moisture to work with, so am not expecting any widespread precip. Based on forecast soundings, have introduced a mid-level cloud deck at around 15000ft as the front arrives. Models generally take the boundary to near or just south of the I-72 corridor before stalling it by Thursday morning. As a result, will carry light/variable winds at the I-72 terminals, with NE winds of 5-10kt at both KPIA and KBMI after 14/15z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Auten AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1244 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 15z/10am water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short-wave trough tracking eastward across western Ontario/Minnesota...while a more subtle wave is noted further south across western Iowa. A cluster of showers/storms is ongoing across central Iowa...with isolated showers extending further southeastward into central Illinois. Models are not handling the current situation particularly well...with the 12z NAM missing the Iowa convection completely. Even the higher-res models such as the HRRR and Rapid Refresh that show the Iowa convection are not picking up on the showers further southeast. As a result...have relied mainly on satellite/radar loops for the short-term forecast update. Have added slight chance PoPs for showers/thunder across nearly the entire CWA through early afternoon. Have increased PoPs northwest of the Illinois River to go with scattered wording, as radar timing tools are showing the tail end of the Iowa convection brushing this area over the next 2-4 hours. Aside from the spotty showers...the main weather story today will be the unseasonably warm conditions. With a good deal of sunshine and continued southwesterly winds...afternoon high temperatures will once again top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 An MCV pushing across Illinois early this morning will keep showers and isolated thunderstorms going past sunrise generally along I-72 and surrounding counties. Thunder potential should diminish toward sunrise as the vort max becomes more elongated with less DPVA. Will gradually diminish PoPs through mid-morning across our central counties. Satellite and radar analysis shows our next shortwave should arrive in NW Illinois this afternoon, triggering more showers and a few storms NW of the Illinois river. Only utilized slight chance PoPs for now, but localized areas could see a tenth of an inch or more of rain if any storms develop. Elevated instability appears sufficient for thunder, and SPC Day 1 outlook includes our northern counties in General Thunder. Temperatures today could be highly variable depending on what areas see clearing the longest. Will stay the course with highs near guidance numbers in the upper 70s to low 80s, as steady southwest winds mix down a mid-level warm layer. Temps on Tuesday climbed rapidly as clearing developed in the mid-high cloud cover, and today should be similar. NW and SE areas should be on the cooler side of that range due to showers early in the SE and late in the NW. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 Forecast increasingly problematic with short waves moving into the region from the deep upper low settling over the desert SW. Models not handling them well, and fumbling the QPF fields as a result. Tonight dry in the models for the most part, but a front moving through with another pulse of energy riding along it. Timing of the pulse is in more question than the boundary. GFS is a little more diffuse than the NAM and the ECMWF that move along later in the overnight. Either way, keeping some chance and slight chance pops in for the low confidence forecast. Same boundary settling in could provide some focus for day time showers across the middle of the state, and slights across the CWA to reflect it for the meantime. Models are getting more and more assertive with moisture into the region and increasing the showers and speeding up the timing of the next system. The upper low over the SW finally kicks out and through the Midwest bringing the best precip chances in the forecast for this weekend...Friday and Saturday...moving up the time frame to impact the western portions of the state by 18z on Friday. Have kept the mention of thunder in the southern half of the CWA for Saturday as the front settles into the area with the max heat of the afternoon. Temps a little more seasonal going into the work week with highs in the lower 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s. Timing for the next wave/chance of precip varied in models by 24-36 hrs Tues/Wed. Keeping the pops low for now, slightly lower than the blends, just as a place holder and waiting for more consensus. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 Southwesterly winds gusting to around 20kt will continue throughout the afternoon before subsiding to less than 10kt by sunset. Winds will gradually become light/variable as a cold front sags slowly southward into central Illinois tonight. Front will have very little low-level moisture to work with, so am not expecting any widespread precip. Based on forecast soundings, have introduced a mid-level cloud deck at around 15000ft as the front arrives. Models generally take the boundary to near or just south of the I-72 corridor before stalling it by Thursday morning. As a result, will carry light/variable winds at the I-72 terminals, with NE winds of 5-10kt at both KPIA and KBMI after 14/15z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SHORT TERM...Shimon LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1108 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SHORT TERM... 327 AM CDT THROUGH THURSDAY... A WARM FRONT LIES TWO THIRDS OF THE WAY UP THE LAKE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER NORTHEAST IL. SHOWERS ARE ONGOING OVER THE LAKE AND SOUTH OF I-80. EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT EAST. IR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS TREND AS CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z/7 AM CDT. SHOULD SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S. RAISED HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER NORTHERN IL THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MN. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NORTH OF I-88 THIS AFTN. TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS FORM ALONG IT. HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN HOW SHOWERS WERE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED TODAY...DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING. TO BE FAIR...GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WOULD LIMIT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL TO THE MID 50S SOUTH OF I-80. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY AND WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE HIGH. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR FUNNELS IN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ALONG THE LAKE WITH ON SHORE WINDS...TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH OF A PONTIAC TO FOWLER INDIANA LINE. RAISED HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80 AS GUIDANCE HAS 925 MB TEMPS ARND +14C TO +15C. JEE && .LONG TERM... 327 AM CDT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NEXT LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RAISED THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS AS WELL WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 DOWNTOWN AND ACROSS CENTRAL IL. RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN MN. ONCE AGAIN RAISED HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY SINCE WAA WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND WE WILL BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH OF I-80. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HINDER MAXIMUM HEATING...BUT HAVE MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS. THE LOWS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND DO NOT HAVE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE WRONG TIME OF DAY. AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A TENTH OF MEASURABLE PRECIP FRIDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT SO LOWERED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY WITH THE COOLER UPPER LEVEL AIR LAGGING A BIT. MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS SATURDAY BUT MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM REASONABLE. GUIDANCE KEEPS PRECIP AND THE COOLER AIR WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OVER THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...SO LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JEE && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z... * GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. * CHANCE OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. CMS //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z... AN UPPER WAVE OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THIS HANDLED OK AT THE MOMENT AND SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THRU THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AT RFD THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE THUNDER MENTION AT RFD. WENT WITH VICINITY MENTION AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS FOR NOW...BUT MAY ALSO NEED TO ADD A TEMPO OR SHORT DURATION FOR SHOWERS. CMS PREVIOUS 12Z DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING IS RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING UNDER THE RAIN WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. EXPECT THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL SHIFT EAST OF RFD BY 08-09Z AND THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS 11-12Z. SSW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE ABOVE 10 KT BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS INTO THE HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20 KT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH MID EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY LATE EVENING AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT VSBY BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR IN PRECIP BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z... * MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. * LOW FOR SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. CMS //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z... THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. E WIND. FRIDAY...VFR. SE WIND. SATURDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR PSBL. SW BCMG NW WIND. SUNDAY...VFR. N WIND. MONDAY...VFR. E WIND. TUESDAY...SLT CHC SHRA. MVFR/IFR PSBL. E WIND. BMD && .MARINE... 242 AM CDT A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE AND EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK 15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WHILE ANOTHER LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...LIFTING ACROSS ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
304 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER TO RE-INTRODUCE POPS AGAIN EARLY THU MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRIGGERED BY SRN LOBE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN CANADA UPPER LOW. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS RESULTED IN SOME DECENT BUT BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA GUSTS. THIS MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE INTO THE NIGHT...BUT NRN STREAM LIFT IS NOW GONE AND ANYTHING WITH THE AZ CLOSED LOW WILL MAINLY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH 12Z. ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP...HOWEVER MORE TIMELY HRRR AND RAP RUNS DO SUGGEST CURRENT ELEVATED NE/KS PRECIP WILL OOZE INTO IA LATER THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE DEEPENS SOMEWHAT. THUS HAVE TRIED TO BRIDGE THE GAP WITH SPRINKLE WORDING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION...PRECIP SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME AND REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH BASED. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW MODEL PACKAGES...THE TIMING REMAINS SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO BOTH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ONLY MINOR CHANGE APPEARS TO BE THE INTRODUCTION OF THUNDER POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTH AS BOTH THE GFS AND EURO NOW SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTH. TRADITIONALLY...INSTABILITY LESSENS ONCE THE LAYER BECOMES SATURATED IN COOLER DRIER AIR AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF THUNDER...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO MENTION. OTHERWISE THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS THE SAME WITH A PARTIALLY SPLIT FORCING REGIME...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE H850 JET AND BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. NONE THE LESS A PERIOD OF HIGH POP WILL STILL BE REALIZED ON FRIDAY DESPITE THE REALIZATION THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK TO BE ON TARGET WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A DECENT COOL OFF FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S BY SUNDAY. BEYOND SUNDAY THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF NEXT WEEKS PATTERN. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODEL ARE SUGGESTING A LARGE STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS MAY PHASE INTO ONE LARGER STORM DURING THIS PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS/EURO DEEPEN A DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CONCURRENTLY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND A SUBTROPICAL GULF COAST SYSTEM EDGING NORTHEAST WITH TIME FROM TEXAS. LOOKING AT THE H500 FIELDS...IT APPEARS THAT THE EURO HAS ALLOWED THE ENERGY OF THE LEADING WAVE TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE NORTHERLY BIAS WITH WEAKER SYSTEMS. THE NET RESULT IS EITHER A MORE NORTHERLY STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE GFS OR A STRONGER SOLUTION FOR THE PLAINS IF THE EURO MODEL VERIFIES. THOUGH WE ARE STILL 5 TO 6 DAYS AWAY...IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONG FALL SYSTEM NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA. DETAILS OF DAILY WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE BETTER PARSED OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL...WILL MAINTAIN A BLENDED APPROACH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY WEDNESDAY. IF THE EURO WERE TO VERIFY...DAY TIME HIGHS BY THURSDAY WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WITH STRONG WINDS AND PLENTY OF COLD RAIN SHOWERS. && .AVIATION...21/18Z ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 CONVECTION HAS EXITED TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK COLD FRONT WAS ALONG KCSQ-KDSM-KIIB LINE AT 18Z WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SE WITH MINOR NW WIND GUSTS BEHIND UNTIL SUNSET. CIGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO EARLY THU MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SMALL LONG TERM...REV AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
348 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MAIN CHALLENGES ARE FREEZING PRECIP AND TEMPERATURES. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRES MOVING SE ACROSS THE STATE W/DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW DEWPOINTS RANGING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PULLS TO THE E AND LOW PRES MOVES E FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK AFTER SUNSET AND SHOULD FALL BACK RATHER QUICKLY W/THE LOWER DEWPOINTS. A WARM FRONT DEPICTED ON THE ANALYSIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE OVERNIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIP TO BREAK OUT. 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS AND GEM SUPPORT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO BE WELL W OF THE CWA W/THE WARM FRONT. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE RAP AND HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOW A BAND OF PRECIP MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. AIRMASS IS DRY PER THE 12Z UA ESPECIALLY THROUGH 700 MBS AND THE COLUMN WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE, PRECIP MIGHT TAKEN SOME TIME TO REACH THE SURFACE. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AFTER 2 AM ACROSS THE FAR N AND W MAINLY W OF THE CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE REGION. ATTM, QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 0.05" THROUGH 12Z. THE WINDOW FOR THE FREEZING PRECIP APPEARS TO BE BRIEF AND NO MORE THAN 3 HRS AT BEST. ATTM, ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND GIVEN THAT GROUND TEMPS STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, DECIDED AGAINST AN ADVISORY. MIDNIGHT CREW DID A FINE JOB IN ADDRESSING THE FREEZING PRECIP IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO)AND WILL UPDATE THE OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE WELL INTO THE 30S BY AFTER 8AM (12Z) ALLEVIATING ANY FREEZING RAIN THREAT. LIGHT RAIN WILL BRIEFLY END BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS N. THE REGION GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A TIME W/S WINDS INCREASING BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO BOOST WINDS UP GIVEN THE 0-6KM SHEAR BEING ADVERTISED AT AROUND 40 KTS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT W/WINDS GOING W AND THEN NW AND PICKING BACK UP. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND END LATER IN THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE E. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KICK IN LATE W/READING DROPPING SHARPLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL QPF FRONT THIS EVENT WILL RANGE FROM 0.10-0.25" W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A COLD, WINDY DAY FOR FRIDAY WITH THE WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY PRECIP, PATTERN RECOGNITION SAYS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. NORTHWEST AREAS WILL BE THE COLDEST NOT ONLY BECAUSE THEY TYPICALLY ARE THE COLDEST ON CLEAR, CALM NIGHTS, BUT ALSO BECAUSE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NW MAINE. A BIT WARMER FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12Z GFS IS A BIT OF A FAST OUTLIER IN BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO FAR WESTERN AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY, BUT DISREGARDED ITS FASTER TIMING BECAUSE OF IT BEING AN OUTLIER WITH ITS OWN PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER MODELS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RAIN MOVES IN AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING, THOUGH. COULD START ANYWHERE FROM ABOUT 9PM SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY. SAME AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE RAIN ENDS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY BE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHOULD BE DRY BY THE DAY MONDAY AND COOLER, AND PROBABLY STAYING DRY INTO TUESDAY. NEXT SHOT OF RAIN COMES AROUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A DECENT LOW PASSES TO OUR NW AS THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS. NO GOOD SHOTS OF SNOW IN SIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF EACH SYSTEM, BUT IT SEEMS THE COLD AIR JUST CAN`T QUITE MEET THE MOISTURE TO GIVE US A GOOD SNOW EVENT. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH 2 AM AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR EXPECTED FOR A BRIEF TIME ON THURSDAY W/THE WARM FRONT AND SSE WIND. SOME -FZRA POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS MAINLY FOR KFVE W/MINIMAL ICING. CONDITIONS GOING TO MVFR THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN VFR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT TERM: PERHAPS SOME MVFR CEILINGS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY MAINLY NORTHERN MAINE, OTHERWISE VFR. ALSO QUITE WINDY AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM. LLVL JET WILL BRING A SURGE OF 20 KTS ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY W/GUSTS 25+ KTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN COME BACK UP LATER THURSADY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WAVE HIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT BY LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING MAINLY DUE TO GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED MID-LVL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ASSOC SFC LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE KEWEENAW WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH IRON COUNTY. A BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM AU TRAIN THROUGH GWINN TO NEAR IRON MOUNTAIN MOVING EAST. TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RISE-FALL COUPLET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST ADDING A WEST TO EAST ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT TO THE GUSTS. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM CAA INTO THE REGION...WILL ALLOW FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP MODEL PROGS WINDS AT 900MB OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WHICH COULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE FROM INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAA. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL FALL TO AROUND -2C OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG WITH ISOLD TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES LIFTING NE THROUGH QUEBEC...A SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH NW FLOW AND 850MB THERMAL TROF IN THE AREA TO START THE DAY...EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THRU THE MORNING ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA...AIDED BY OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -2C. LINGERING SFC TROF EXTENDING BACK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL OVERLAKE INSTABILITY MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLD LAKE EFFECT -SHRA THRU THE MORNING OVER THE ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT IMPROVING SKY CONDITION WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY MID/UPPER 40S N TO LWR TO MID 50S SCNTRL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL KICK ENERGY OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS. THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SAT...AND THE ROUGHLY 999MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN TO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. MOST DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM 0-4C AT 00Z FRI TO 8-10C BY 00Z SAT AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH AND STRONG SLY FLOW RESULTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THESE WARMER TEMPS STICK AROUND UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -1C TO -4C POST FRONTAL WITH NW LOW LEVEL WINDS...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP INTO SUN MORNING. SYNOPTIC RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR W AROUND 18Z FRI...THE CENTRAL AROUND 00Z SAT AND THE FAR E BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SAT. ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY 0.2 TO MAYBE 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT. MAY SEE SOME SOME LIGHT RAIN SUN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SNOW SUN NIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY. THE FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS VERY UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME AS MODEL SHOW A SERIES OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A RESULTING SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH. THE UNCERTAINTY COMES AS MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES AND RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT IS VERY POOR. COULD SEE A SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN ALL DETAILS. WILL JUST RUN WITH A BLEND OF OFFICIAL AND CONSENSUS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 KIWD/KCMX...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 MPH ALSO LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT KCMX. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS RIDGING FROM THE WEST BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. KSAW...LIFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE MIXING ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS WILL CONITNUE INTO THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT THEN EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS RIDGING FROM THE WEST BRINGS IN DRIER AIR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 SE WINDS TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRES TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A FAVORABLY ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. SE WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE ERN HALF OF LAKE AND THEN NW WINDS COULD GUST NEAR GALE FORCE SAT AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING WINDS BACK DOWN BLO 20 KNOTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ243>245-251-264>267. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1215 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .AVIATION... PERIODIC INTERVALS OF THICKER MID CLOUD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER DRIER LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR A CLEAR SKY BELOW 6000 FT THROUGH THIS TIME. MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES TO 20 KNOTS PRIOR TO SUNSET. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION 04Z-09Z TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND AN ACCOMPANY BRIEF REDUCTION IN CEILING PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TONIGHT. PROBABILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION. SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR DTW...WINDOW FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z-07Z. NO DEFINED MENTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW POTENTIAL. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * LOW IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. * LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1036 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 UPDATE... COMPACT MID LEVEL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS INTO ONTARIO WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS SE MICHIGAN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THE GENERAL COLUMN DESCENT AND CONTINUED SOLID DEPTH TO THE LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER /BELOW 7K FT/ POINTS TO LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO SUNSET. THIS WARRANTS A REDUCTION IN POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXISTING THICKER CANOPY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD WILL STEADILY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING AT LEAST PERIODIC INTERVALS OF OPEN SKY ARE POSSIBLE. BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AT THE SAME TIME INDICATE THAT HIGHS IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES OR JUST ABOVE ARE STILL ATTAINABLE DESPITE THE SLOWER EARLY DAY RESPONSE BENEATH THE CLOUDS. SIMPLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS AT THIS TIME. PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 329 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT A MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WAS RELATIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF YESTERDAY WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT TO OVERCOME SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. IN FACT...PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE AREA WILL TOP ONE INCH THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS MID LEVEL FRONT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS OF 630Z...THIS SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER METRO CHICAGO AND MOVING NORTHEAST. IT WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SE MI IN THE 12 TO 15 Z TIME FRAME. THE SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THIS WAVE SUGGESTS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE TOO WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE. REGIONAL RADAR ALONG WITH THE RECENT HRRR SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MORE PROLONGED AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED GENERALLY NORTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR WHERE SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENSUES FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIFT THE SFC WARM FRONT /NOW EXTENDING ACROSS CNTL LOWER MI AND THE TIP OF THE THUMB/ NORTHWARD...PLACING ALL OF SE MI WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF RESIDUAL MID CLOUDS. THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES AND THE EXPECTATION OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI TONIGHT /3-9Z/...DRIVEN THROUGH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. DEEP LAYER FRONTAL FORCING ACTING UPON A LOW-MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE PRECEDING THE SFC FRONT AND SOME DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES THIS WEEK. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN TENDS TO KEEP MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT COLD FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC REFLECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE REGION. WE WILL RESIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET STREAM THUS SOMEWHAT MILD TEMPERATURES...AT OR JUST BELOW LATE OCTOBER AVERAGES...WILL CONTINUE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH BUT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL YIELD SOME DEGREE OF SHALLOW CAA. MORE NOTABLY THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL TAKE A BIG HIT ABOVE 900MB WITH PWATS FALLING TO BELOW A HALF INCH. THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S AS NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND SUCH A DRY AIRMASS. THOUGH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION...COOL EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 100MB WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. CHANGES THEN COME TO THE PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS EJECTING NE THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF LOWER MI BUT A LL JET SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MI WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS TO START DRIFTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STRING OUT NE TO SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MI AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS FURTHER NE. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP ONGOING THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FOR THE START OF THE WEEK BUT MODELS INDICATE THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SO WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY DIVING THROUGH THE TROUGH DURING THAT TIME. MARINE... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS LOW HAS PULLED A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH THE REGION WHICH HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE LAKES KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS TEMPERED...MAXING OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BURST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX BUT NOT BEFORE VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL SEND THE HIGHER WAVES DOWN THE AXIS OF THE LAKE TOWARD. WAVES POSSIBLE REACHING 4 FEET MAY BRUSH THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE THUMB THURSDAY NIGHT. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....MR UPDATE.......MR SHORT TERM...SC LONG TERM....DRK MARINE.......DRK YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY... QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE RESIDENT AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARD... MOST NOTABLE AFTER SUNSET WHEN MIXING HAS CEASED. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN... AND GIVEN THAT VERY LITTLE OF IT FORMED THIS MORNING... A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST IS FAVORED. THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DOES DEVELOP STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL AREA INCLUDING OUR FAR EASTERN FRINGE LATE TONIGHT... WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE... APART FROM A FEW WISPY HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE PASSING WEAK WAVE EARLY TONIGHT... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY UNDER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS 36-48... WARMEST SOUTHEAST. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY... CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SPLITS... WITH THE CORE OF THE WEAK HIGH SHIFTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... RESULTING IN A TREND TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NC. THE ANTICIPATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT... HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT NO ACTUAL COOLER AIR GETS THIS FAR SOUTH THROUGH THU NIGHT. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY... STABLE... AND BENIGN WITH RIDGING ALOFT. WHILE THE COLUMN SLOWLY MOISTENS WITH PW VALUES CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD NORMAL VALUES... WE`RE LACKING CONCENTRATED MOISTURE OR LIFT AT ANY ONE LEVEL... AND SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. WARM HIGHS OF 76- 80. ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS OF 45-54... COOLEST IN THE OUTLYING AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT AND WARMEST FAR EAST AND NORTH (DUE TO SOME STIRRING OF THE SURFACE FLOW OVER NRN NC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT). -GIH && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN US THROUGH SATURDAY...EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING ANY GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AND DIVERTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORT NORTH OF THE AREA AS A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS SUCH...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TOPPING OUT IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE...WARMEST ACROSS THE SOUTH. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL NELY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...THAT COULD SUPPORT BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY: MEAN RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY WHILE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST AND OFFSHORE. ANY MORNING STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT GIVEN PROMINENT MID-LEVEL INVERSION PER LATEST NAMBUFR SOUNDINGS...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MODULATE DAYTIME HIGHS...OR AT THE VERY LEAST RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE GULF REMAINS BLOCKED...MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE BETTER WITH PWATS INCREASING TO ~1.5" WITH MODELS ALSO INDICATING WEAK DPVA TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES RISING TO 1380-1385M AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO MID 70S EAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE IN THE 50S. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A STRONG +1030MB SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING ALOFT...UNDERNEATH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MS VALLEY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 125 PM WEDNESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING CENTRAL NC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO COVERING THE REGION... WITH DRY AND SINKING AIR LEADING TO VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER... AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT AGL LATE TONIGHT (07Z-11Z) AT RWI/FAY... BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LOWER RISK OF FOG/STRATUS IN RECENT RUNS... PLUS THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO OUR EAST OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NC. WILL INCLUDE JUST A TEMPO MENTION AT FAY/RWI FOR NOW. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL STAY GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 5000 FT AGL. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD. A COUPLE OF WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT... WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT BACK NORTH SAT... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SAT INTO SUN. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND STALL OUT THROUGH MON... BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS... ALTHOUGH SHOWERS CHANCES REMAIN SMALL. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...CBL AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY... QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE RESIDENT AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARD... MOST NOTABLE AFTER SUNSET WHEN MIXING HAS CEASED. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN... AND GIVEN THAT VERY LITTLE OF IT FORMED THIS MORNING... A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST IS FAVORED. THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DOES DEVELOP STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL AREA INCLUDING OUR FAR EASTERN FRINGE LATE TONIGHT... WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE... APART FROM A FEW WISPY HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE PASSING WEAK WAVE EARLY TONIGHT... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY UNDER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS 36-48... WARMEST SOUTHEAST. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY... CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SPLITS... WITH THE CORE OF THE WEAK HIGH SHIFTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... RESULTING IN A TREND TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NC. THE ANTICIPATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT... HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT NO ACTUAL COOLER AIR GETS THIS FAR SOUTH THROUGH THU NIGHT. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY... STABLE... AND BENIGN WITH RIDGING ALOFT. WHILE THE COLUMN SLOWLY MOISTENS WITH PW VALUES CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD NORMAL VALUES... WE`RE LACKING CONCENTRATED MOISTURE OR LIFT AT ANY ONE LEVEL... AND SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. WARM HIGHS OF 76- 80. ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS OF 45-54... COOLEST IN THE OUTLYING AREAS OF THE PIEDMONT AND WARMEST FAR EAST AND NORTH (DUE TO SOME STIRRING OF THE SURFACE FLOW OVER NRN NC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT). -GIH && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY... A DRY TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD IN BACKDOOR FASHION AND THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DAY TO DAY TREND WITH THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE FOR A MORE DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS... HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS AREAWIDE FOR FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NE TO NEAR 80 SW. A BAND OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT... THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THUS... DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE THE CLOUD COVER SPREAD OUT/THICKEN AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT... WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NE TO THE LOWER 50S W. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA TO START THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA... WITH ONLY ANOTHER TRIALING FRONT APPROACHING/MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN PUSH FROM THE NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... AS A 1030-1035 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK... WE COULD SEE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW... WILL JUST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK... UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN A GIVEN TIME FRAME... WHICH MAY BE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME . TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY... WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 125 PM WEDNESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING CENTRAL NC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO COVERING THE REGION... WITH DRY AND SINKING AIR LEADING TO VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER... AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT AGL LATE TONIGHT (07Z-11Z) AT RWI/FAY... BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LOWER RISK OF FOG/STRATUS IN RECENT RUNS... PLUS THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO OUR EAST OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NC. WILL INCLUDE JUST A TEMPO MENTION AT FAY/RWI FOR NOW. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL STAY GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 5000 FT AGL. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD. A COUPLE OF WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT... WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT BACK NORTH SAT... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SAT INTO SUN. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND STALL OUT THROUGH MON... BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS... ALTHOUGH SHOWERS CHANCES REMAIN SMALL. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
240 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY... QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE RESIDENT AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARD... MOST NOTABLE AFTER SUNSET WHEN MIXING HAS CEASED. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN... AND GIVEN THAT VERY LITTLE OF IT FORMED THIS MORNING... A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST IS FAVORED. THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DOES DEVELOP STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL AREA INCLUDING OUR FAR EASTERN FRINGE LATE TONIGHT... WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE... APART FROM A FEW WISPY HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE PASSING WEAK WAVE EARLY TONIGHT... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY UNDER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS 36-48... WARMEST SOUTHEAST. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 308 AM WEDNESDAY... UPPER RIDGE UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION IN RESPONSE TO A S/W EXITING THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING NEWD FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHIFT IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL RESULT IN OUR FLOW VEERING TO A NWLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL AID TO DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT SWD TOWARD CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OUR FLOW WILL BECOME WEST-SWLY...ADVECTING A VERY WARM AIR MASS CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC. THIS WARMER AIR MASS WILL PUSH THURSDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTH AND WEST POSSIBLY HITTING 80 DEGREES. A LIGHT SFC WIND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AID TO KEEP THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE STIRRED...RESULTING IN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS (WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS). MIN TEMPS NEAR 50-LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY... A DRY TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD IN BACKDOOR FASHION AND THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DAY TO DAY TREND WITH THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE FOR A MORE DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS... HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS AREAWIDE FOR FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NE TO NEAR 80 SW. A BAND OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT... THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THUS... DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE THE CLOUD COVER SPREAD OUT/THICKEN AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT... WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NE TO THE LOWER 50S W. MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA TO START THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA... WITH ONLY ANOTHER TRIALING FRONT APPROACHING/MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN PUSH FROM THE NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... AS A 1030-1035 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK... WE COULD SEE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOR NOW... WILL JUST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK... UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN A GIVEN TIME FRAME... WHICH MAY BE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME . TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY... WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 125 PM WEDNESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING CENTRAL NC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO COVERING THE REGION... WITH DRY AND SINKING AIR LEADING TO VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER... AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT AGL LATE TONIGHT (07Z-11Z) AT RWI/FAY... BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A LOWER RISK OF FOG/STRATUS IN RECENT RUNS... PLUS THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO OUR EAST OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NC. WILL INCLUDE JUST A TEMPO MENTION AT FAY/RWI FOR NOW. WINDS AT ALL SITES WILL STAY GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 5000 FT AGL. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD. A COUPLE OF WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT... WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AND LIFT BACK NORTH SAT... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SAT INTO SUN. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND STALL OUT THROUGH MON... BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS... ALTHOUGH SHOWERS CHANCES REMAIN SMALL. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
645 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER...WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH OHIO VALLEY IN ZONAL FLOW. VIRGA INDICATED VIA REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE PREVENTING ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... BUT IT WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE THROUGH THE NW MTNS BEFORE DAWN. THIS SHOULD CORRESPOND WITH A THICKENING DECK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. SO THE HRRR SOLUTION OF A LINE OF SCTD SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS IS ACCEPTED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH A MDT DIP IN TEMPS OF SEVERAL TO PERHAPS 10 DEG F BEHIND IT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO AT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THE TEMP DROP IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE CFROPA WILL BE MORE MUTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SE ZONES...WHERE DOWNSLOPING/ADIABATIC WARMING OF THE LIGHT TO MDT NNWRLY FLOW WILL OCCUR. PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IN MOST PLACES...THOUGH WITH PWATS THERE COULD BE SPOTS OF ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NW DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODERATELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH A TROF OVER THE WESTERN U.S AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NWD INTO THE EASTERN U.S...IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK...THEN TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP NRN STREAM TROF DEVELOPS NORTH OF HUDSON BAY. RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE SQUASHED DOWN BY SEVERAL NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES MOVING QUICKLY EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL COLD FRONTS DROPPING TOWARD THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY BKN-OVC SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS AS MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT /10-15F COOLER THAN THU/ WITH 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY TO NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY. ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD. EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS TH GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE NRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE WILL SEE SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 10KFT WITH SCT CI OVER THE SRN 2/3 WITH BASES 15-25KFT AGL. LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE PA/NY BORDER. ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT TRAILING LOW PRES MOVG THRU SERN CANADA WILL LIKELY BRING SCT SHOWERS TO THE AIRSPACE ESP NRN SITES...WITH LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN TERMINALS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRES RETURNS WDSPRD VFR CONDS ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE RETREATING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LKLY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AIRSPACE SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... THU...SCT SHOWERS LKLY WITH CFROPA. SFC WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS FROM 220-260. FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG. SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT. MON...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/CERU SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
559 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 ...SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UPDATE... .UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE REGION. AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH MORE OCCURRING. HAVE UPDATED POP AND QPF AMOUNTS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. BIEDA && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/ DISCUSSION... THE LONG ADVERTISED INGREDIENTS FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT HAS ARRIVED IN THE PANHANDLE REGION. THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. PRESENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CAPE VALUES ARE APPROXIMATELY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE PRESENT LINE OF STORMS...WITH ROUGHLY 45 TO 50 KTS OF SHEAR AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE LINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS & OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THAT ISOLATED HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED MAY OCCUR. SEVERE WINDS HAVE BEEN CURTAILED MOSTLY DUE TO THE LLJ BEING PERPENDICULAR TO STORM MOTION...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES OVER THE REGION...THE PROGRESSION OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO HASTEN. THE BEST WINDOW FOR IMPACTS DUE TO THESE STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROGGED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION. OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS LINE OF STORMS CLEARS THE REGION...STORMS SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED IN NATURE AND END BY SUNSET THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE WEATHER SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PASS THROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ONE ON TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS ABOUT THE IMPACTS OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE HELD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BIEDA AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECASTED. LATEST THINKING IS THAT SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS BTWN 21/18Z THRU ABOUT 22/05Z. MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. BTWN 22/05Z THRU 22/16Z...A SQUALL LINE IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR CIG AND VIS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS MAY START TO IMPROVE AFT 22/16Z. TAF AMENDMENTS WILL BE LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF STORMS AND IMPACTS...THOUGH THIS DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE UPDATED FOR THEM. BIEDA HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CONVECTION HAS FORMED ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS...ALONG WITH PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE 40-50 KT LLJ...SUGGESTS THAT TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF MODELS SUPPORTS THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE BETWEEN 10 PM THROUGH 6 AM...WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES...OWING TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. ONCE THIS LINE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...THERE MAY BE SOME FORMATION BEHIND THE LINE TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AS THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS WILL INVOLVE DISRUPTION TO INTERSTATE OR URBAN TRAVEL ALONG WITH MUDDY BACKCOUNTRY ROADS. THE HIGH AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IN A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS PRONE TO IT. BIEDA && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL... LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH... HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER... RANDALL...SHERMAN. OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS. && $$ 98/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
403 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .DISCUSSION... THE LONG ADVERTISED INGREDIENTS FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT HAS ARRIVED IN THE PANHANDLE REGION. THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. PRESENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CAPE VALUES ARE APPROXIMATELY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE PRESENT LINE OF STORMS...WITH ROUGHLY 45 TO 50 KTS OF SHEAR AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE LINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS & OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THAT ISOLATED HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED MAY OCCUR. SEVERE WINDS HAVE BEEN CURTAILED MOSTLY DUE TO THE LLJ BEING PERPENDICULAR TO STORM MOTION...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES OVER THE REGION...THE PROGRESSION OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO HASTEN. THE BEST WINDOW FOR IMPACTS DUE TO THESE STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROGGED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION. OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS LINE OF STORMS CLEARS THE REGION...STORMS SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED IN NATURE AND END BY SUNSET THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE WEATHER SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PASS THROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ONE ON TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS ABOUT THE IMPACTS OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE HELD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. BIEDA && .AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECASTED. LATEST THINKING IS THAT SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS BTWN 21/18Z THRU ABOUT 22/05Z. MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. BTWN 22/05Z THRU 22/16Z...A SQUALL LINE IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR CIG AND VIS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS MAY START TO IMPROVE AFT 22/16Z. TAF AMENDMENTS WILL BE LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF STORMS AND IMPACTS...THOUGH THIS DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE UPDATED FOR THEM. BIEDA && .HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CONVECTION HAS FORMED ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS...ALONG WITH PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE 40-50 KT LLJ...SUGGESTS THAT TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF MODELS SUPPORTS THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE BETWEEN 10 PM THROUGH 6 AM...WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES...OWING TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. ONCE THIS LINE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...THERE MAY BE SOME FORMATION BEHIND THE LINE TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AS THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS WILL INVOLVE DISRUPTION TO INTERSTATE OR URBAN TRAVEL ALONG WITH MUDDY BACKCOUNTRY ROADS. THE HIGH AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IN A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS PRONE TO IT. BIEDA && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMARILLO TX 68 57 65 54 74 / 100 100 70 30 5 BEAVER OK 71 57 67 54 73 / 70 100 90 40 5 BOISE CITY OK 63 50 61 46 69 / 100 100 60 10 10 BORGER TX 72 58 67 55 74 / 90 100 80 30 5 BOYS RANCH TX 68 56 67 50 72 / 100 100 50 20 5 CANYON TX 65 57 65 53 73 / 100 100 60 30 5 CLARENDON TX 71 58 65 55 77 / 80 100 90 40 5 DALHART TX 65 53 65 49 71 / 100 100 50 20 5 GUYMON OK 67 55 66 51 73 / 90 100 80 20 5 HEREFORD TX 65 56 67 51 73 / 100 100 40 20 5 LIPSCOMB TX 76 61 66 56 75 / 50 100 90 50 5 PAMPA TX 72 58 66 55 75 / 80 100 90 30 5 SHAMROCK TX 75 61 66 57 77 / 50 100 90 60 10 WELLINGTON TX 77 62 67 58 78 / 60 100 90 60 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL... LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH... HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER... RANDALL...SHERMAN. OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS. && $$ 98/18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1231 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .UPDATE... UPDATED WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. CURRENTLY SKIES HAVE THINNED OUT GREATLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK REMAIN COVERED UNDER STRATUS. WHILE CONVECTION IS ONGOING NEAR THE CWA...A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO HOME THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR THE TRANSITION AREA OF BEING CLOUDY AND CLEAR DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. A `BOUNDARY` HAS SHOWN UP ON RADAR REFLECTIVITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR LUBBOCK AS A RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. THE MAIN THREATS THAT ARE OF CONCERN ASIDE FROM HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. ALDRICH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/ AVIATION... FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT OF A MIXED BAG UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. SKIES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART CLEARED AT CDS LEAVING VFR FLIGHT RULES. CIGS HAVE ALSO RAISED AT PVW AND ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT LBB. ALL CIGS AT THE MOMENT REMAIN AT VFR. OF QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINALS PVW AND LBB THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY LAST INTO THE EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS. THE THREAT SHOULD MOVE TOWARDS CDS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER STORMS DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 58 KTS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 00Z AND LAST INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. ALDRICH PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/ AVIATION... AFTER BRIEF TS AND RA ACTIVITY AT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE MAIN EVENT OCCURS. CDS HAS BEEN MOVED TO MVFR AT 1500Z FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING EAST ACROSS CASTRO AND SWISHER COUNTIES THIS MORNING. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING INTO ALL TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY DELAY IN SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE COULD DELAY THIS DOWNGRADE OF CATEGORY. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL IMPACT VISIBILITIES. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/ SHORT TERM... THERE HAS BEEN MUCH TALK AND MANY WATCHFUL EYES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND IT IS NOW HERE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SRN AZ EARLY THIS MORNING...DRAGGING PACIFIC MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUR WAY. THESE FEATURES WILL TAKE CARE OF THE CURRENT RAINSHIELD ACROSS NM/NW SOUTH PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE AND MORE DURING THE DAY. THEN A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF BEELINES ITS WAY FOR THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO GO ALL IN ON THE POPS FOR TONIGHT AT 100 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE LEND CONFIDENCE ON GOING WITH THE FULL POPS. THE HRRR AND HI-RES ARW BOTH WANT TO BRING THE GULF SURGE IN SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND BREAK OUT THE CWA WIDE RAINFALL DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT 100 PERCENT THIS WILL HAPPEN WENT AHEAD AND KEPT DEFINITE POPS ON THE CAPROCK AND LIKELY OFF BEFORE BREAKING OUT THE DEFINITE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND 00Z. IF THE GULF MOISTURE DOES INDEED MAKE A SURGE NORTH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...POPS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTHER SMALL CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD...LOWERED HIGHS OFF THE CAPROCK FOR CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO AS CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER. FLOOD WATCH IS TO GO INTO EFFECT WEDNESDAY AT 18Z. AGREE WITH THINKING OF ISSUING SHIFT SO IT WILL BE LEFT AS IS. QPF VALUES STILL SHOW VALUES OF 1-3 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER STILL FOR DAYS 1-2...SO PONDING...PLAYA OVERRUNNING...STREETS/ROADWAYS IN URBAN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED. LONG TERM... THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO EASE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS STILL ARE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL ON THURSDAY AND WITH MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE TRAINING OF STORMS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DEEP RESULTING IN A HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW AS EXPECTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SATURATED SOUNDINGS. MIXED LAYER INSTABILITIES WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN 700 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. AFTER A DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE A BRIEF RETURN FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THERE EXISTS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO HOW SHARP THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A BOOST TO SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES SATURDAY EVENING. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-043-044. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ021>024-027>030- 033>036-039>042. && $$ 51/29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1212 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .AVIATION... FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT OF A MIXED BAG UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. SKIES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART CLEARED AT CDS LEAVING VFR FLIGHT RULES. CIGS HAVE ALSO RAISED AT PVW AND ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT LBB. ALL CIGS AT THE MOMENT REMAIN AT VFR. OF QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR TERMINALS PVW AND LBB THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY LAST INTO THE EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS. THE THREAT SHOULD MOVE TOWARDS CDS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER STORMS DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 58 KTS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 00Z AND LAST INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. ALDRICH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/ AVIATION... AFTER BRIEF TS AND RA ACTIVITY AT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE MAIN EVENT OCCURS. CDS HAS BEEN MOVED TO MVFR AT 1500Z FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING EAST ACROSS CASTRO AND SWISHER COUNTIES THIS MORNING. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING INTO ALL TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY DELAY IN SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE COULD DELAY THIS DOWNGRADE OF CATEGORY. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL IMPACT VISIBILITIES. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/ SHORT TERM... THERE HAS BEEN MUCH TALK AND MANY WATCHFUL EYES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND IT IS NOW HERE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SRN AZ EARLY THIS MORNING...DRAGGING PACIFIC MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUR WAY. THESE FEATURES WILL TAKE CARE OF THE CURRENT RAINSHIELD ACROSS NM/NW SOUTH PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE AND MORE DURING THE DAY. THEN A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF BEELINES ITS WAY FOR THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO GO ALL IN ON THE POPS FOR TONIGHT AT 100 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE LEND CONFIDENCE ON GOING WITH THE FULL POPS. THE HRRR AND HI-RES ARW BOTH WANT TO BRING THE GULF SURGE IN SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND BREAK OUT THE CWA WIDE RAINFALL DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT 100 PERCENT THIS WILL HAPPEN WENT AHEAD AND KEPT DEFINITE POPS ON THE CAPROCK AND LIKELY OFF BEFORE BREAKING OUT THE DEFINITE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND 00Z. IF THE GULF MOISTURE DOES INDEED MAKE A SURGE NORTH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...POPS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTHER SMALL CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD...LOWERED HIGHS OFF THE CAPROCK FOR CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO AS CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER. FLOOD WATCH IS TO GO INTO EFFECT WEDNESDAY AT 18Z. AGREE WITH THINKING OF ISSUING SHIFT SO IT WILL BE LEFT AS IS. QPF VALUES STILL SHOW VALUES OF 1-3 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER STILL FOR DAYS 1-2...SO PONDING...PLAYA OVERRUNNING...STREETS/ROADWAYS IN URBAN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED. LONG TERM... THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO EASE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS STILL ARE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL ON THURSDAY AND WITH MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE TRAINING OF STORMS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DEEP RESULTING IN A HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW AS EXPECTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SATURATED SOUNDINGS. MIXED LAYER INSTABILITIES WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN 700 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. AFTER A DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE A BRIEF RETURN FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THERE EXISTS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO HOW SHARP THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A BOOST TO SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES SATURDAY EVENING. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-043-044. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ021>024-027>030- 033>036-039>042. && $$ 51/29/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1113 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 .UPDATE... AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST IOWA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WAS BEING DRIVEN BY A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND SOME 700 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS WELL SO FAR TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE NOW BRINGING THIS PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THE 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES EAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z THURSDAY...SO THIS MOVEMENT SEEMS REASONABLE. RAISED POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. CONTINUED TO MENTION THUNDER IN FORECAST...AS AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE...BUT SIDED WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS WITH ELEVATED CAPES. THE INCREASED CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HIGHS IN THIS AREA IN THE 60S...VERSUS LOWER TO MID 70S TO THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WEAKENING AS THEY SHIFT EAST. THESE MAY AFFECT MADISON BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z...AND THE EASTERN SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL UNTIL AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...WITH CLEARING SKIES. && .MARINE... SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/ TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING IN SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND DEPARTING 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA. MODEL LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH CVA WITH LEAD VORT MAX SWEEPING NORTHERN WI AHEAD OF CLOSED 500 MB LOW CROSSING SRN CANADA DRIVING THE UPPER LAYER Q- VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 850 MB 30- 40KT WIND MAX ACCOUNTING FOR THE LOWER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...THOUGH BOTH ARE STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM NRN MN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOISTURE AGAIN IN QUESTION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOWER LAYERS THOUGH NAM IS MORE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN THAN GFS. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...INITIALLY WITH THE 850 MB WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO THE SW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD IT ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA WITH THE STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ENOUGH TO PUT IN THUNDER FOR THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. 925MB THERMAL RIDGE NOSES ACROSS SRN WI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 70S...WITH A FEW MID 70S POSSIBLE. TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH PCPN CHANCES COME TO AN END AS FORCING PUSHES OUT OF AREA WITH FRONT EXITING THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER TO ACCOUNT FOR A LINGER SHOWER UNTIL FRONT CLEARS SRN WI. COOL AIR SPREADS IN ON NW WINDS WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING ABOUT 8C FROM 00Z TO 12Z THURSDAY... PRODUCING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S INLAND AND MID 40S ALONG THE LAKE. THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS BUILDS UP ACROSS IA/MN INTO WRN WI. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PROGGD TO SHIFT FROM MN/IA TO ERN WI AND LAKE MI AREA BY 00Z. SOME ONSHORE COMPONENT EXPECTED THOUGH OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM LINGERING INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST WITH DRY ESE FLOW. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROGGD TO SHIFT EAST AND SET UP THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. NEXT SHORTWAVE WITH INCREASING DCVA AND MOIST ADV STARTS TO APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST PRECIP COVERAGE/POPS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE NUDGED POPS IN SOME AREAS TO CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE WHEN INFLUENCE OF NEWD MOVG NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM FRONT SHIFTS EAST DURING THE MORNING. AS 925/850 WINDS TURN MORE WEST BY AFTERNOON EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE ON THE DECREASE. STILL SOME VORT ACTION LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON THOUGH MODELS DRY THINGS OUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY POST FRONTAL PRECIP POTENTIAL. SO WILL CONFINE POPS TO MAINLY THE MORNING HOURS. SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM SURFACE HIGH PROGGD TO BE IN CONTROL WITH WNW 500 MILLIBAR PATTERN. CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE SITUATED TO OUR NORTH. DRY FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW THOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINTING AT SOME WAA PCPN ACROSS MAINLY NRN WI. WILL LEAVE THE DRY SUPERBLEND POPS AS IS FOR SRN WI. MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM THE GFS KEEPS ANY SHEARED VORT/WAA PCPN TO OUR NORTH AND SHIFTS IT EAST WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTING EAST. AIRMASS LIKELY TO BE QUITE DRY DURING THIS TIME SO HARD TO GO AGAINST SUPERBLEND POPS ESP WITH ELONGATED/CHANNELIZED LOOK TO VORT PATTERN AND ANY FORCING FROM THIS PRIMARILY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW GFS MUCH FASTER ON EJECTING SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL PRECIP THAN THE ECMWF. ECMWF KEEPS AREA DRY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE FASTER GFS GENERATES SHRA WITH LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA. CHANCY POPS FROM THE SUPERBLEND A GOOD COMPROMISE APPROACH AT THIS TIME. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...APPEARS SPOTTY MVFR CIGS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO PUT IN AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. SKIES CLEAR AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING...BUT REMAINING JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MEAN HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE TOWARDS OPEN WATER. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WOOD TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR