Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/21/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON OCT 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON
TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A DRYING TREND WILL START
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
CLOUD COVER HUGGING THE SKY ISLANDS. REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES CONTINUED TO EXIT THE CWA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A BIT HAZY
OUT THERE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS VALID 19/16Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE SURFACE INVERSION MIXES OUT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
HELP TO TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME AFTERNOON SLY/SWLY BREEZES TODAY. OTHERWISE...19/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING WAS PRETTY ROBUST WITH REGARD TO SB CAPE...INDICATING 1420
J/KG AND A PWAT OF 1.06 INCHES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WAS CONFINED TO
BELOW 700 MB AS CONSIDERABLE DRYING HAS OCCURRED IN THE LAST 24
HOURS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. CIRA LPW VALUES VALID 19/15Z
INDICATED THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTED MAINLY ACROSS GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES...WHERE WE EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS OF VARIOUS HIRES NWP
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS NOTION...KEEPING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY EAST TO NORTHEAST OF TUCSON THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THAT SAID...THE CURRENT TRENDS ARE HANDLED WELL BY
THE FORECAST AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/18Z.
ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY E/NE OF KTUS TODAY INCLUDING KSAD.
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FEW-SCT CLOUDS WEST OF KTUS AND
SCT-BKN CLOUDS E OF KTUS WITH DECKS OF 7-12K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND
WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 10-15 KTS LATE THIS MORNING THRU 20/00Z. SPEEDS
WILL THEN DECREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU TUESDAY
MORNING ALONG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST/NORTHEAST OF TUCSON. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON ON THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
20-FT WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN
BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
IN THIS SAME GENERAL AREA FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AND MORE SO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
ENTERS ARIZONA. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THIS SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY OF
ARIZONA THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND EJECTING
EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. THEREAFTER....HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL NUDGE
INTO ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND FOR DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...THEN BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME READINGS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL TEND TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
302 AM MST MON OCT 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON
TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A DRYING TREND WILL START
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP FROM EAST OF PHOENIX TO NEAR SAFFORD AND
CLIFTON EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IN THIS SAME GENERAL AREA FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AND MORE SO WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM ENTERS ARIZONA. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THIS SYSTEM IN THE
VICINITY OF ARIZONA THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND
EJECTING EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. THEREAFTER....HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL NUDGE INTO ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND FOR DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...THEN BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME READINGS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL TEND TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/12Z.
ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY E/NE OF KTUS TODAY. BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL W OF KTUS...AND
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL E OF KTUS. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS TIL 19/17Z...THEN SLY/SWLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 KTS TIL 20/03Z. AFT 20/03Z...SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST/NORTHEAST OF TUCSON. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON ON THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN LATE IN WEEK...CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
20-FT WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN
BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
347 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND A MODEST WARMING AND DRYING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG EXPOSED RIDGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF DEL
NORTE...NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTY. THESE ARE THANKS TO
A PASSING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...ALLOWING THE
INLAND THERMAL TROUGH TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS LIKELY ALONG EXPOSED RIDGES AND PEAKS AND PERHAPS
A FEW FAVORABLY ORIENTED VALLEYS. WHILE AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON FIRE
WEATHER FOR THE AREA...OF WHICH THERE ARE MORE DETAILS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. IN THE MORE PROTECTED
VALLEYS...ADDITIONAL FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT COVERAGE.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOME PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP
IN SOME OF THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF TRINITY COUNTY LIKE HAYFORK
AND RUTH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST...ALTHOUGH A WEAK TROUGH WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS HEIGHTS AND
MODERATE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD A FEW
SPRINKLES ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST AS WELL...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IF ANY AT ALL. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED THERMAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ON
CALIFORNIA...WITH MODERATE NOCTURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A BIT
MORE ACTIVE...AND BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE NW CA COAST WILL ONLY RECEIVE A
GLANCING BLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT A STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH LITTLE CONFIDENCE EXISTS REGARDING ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE. /BRC
&&
.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE
AT KACV FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
SE ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHO CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OVER THE
PACIFIC...LOW CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REDWOOD COAST
AS MOISTURE PILES UP ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE TERRAIN WITH
INCREASING N WINDS. AS WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE BECOME MORE
OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER... WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND RECENT GROUND
MOISTURE...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG FORMATION AND
PERHAPS A RETURN OF EVEN LOWER CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE ON TUE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHO CLOUDS MAY LINGER
NEAR AND JUST N OF CAPE MENDOCINO.
AT KUKI...LOW CLOUDINESS AND SOME GROUND FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE INTRODUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILING REDUCTIONS TO AN UPDATED TAF
SET. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. /SEC
&&
.MARINE...N WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE E PACIFIC AND AN INLAND THERMAL TROF SHARPENS.
GUSTS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. WINDS MAY DIMINISH A BIT TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED. WINDS AND SEAS STILL LOOK TO BE MARGINAL
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A
SHORTER DURATION ADVISORY IS NEEDED...ESPECIALLY BY THU WITH
SECONDARY SURGE OF N WINDS. LONG PERIOD S-SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE BY FRI NIGHT WITH INITIAL PERIODS AROUND 22 SECONDS. THIS
WILL BE COINCIDING WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY. DEPENDING ON RESIDUAL MID- RANGE SWELL...AN
ELEVATED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /SEC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH PARTS OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE SOME AREAS OF DEL NORTE...NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND
NORTHERN TRINITY COULD SEE A LIGHT WETTING RAIN FROM THIS
ACTIVITY...ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED MUCH MORE THAN
ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.
TONIGHT...A REDEVELOPING INLAND TROUGH WILL RESULT IN QUICKLY
INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO
25 MPH ALONG PRIMARILY EXPOSED RIDGES AND PEAKS. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN QUICKLY DROPPING HUMIDITY VALUES AT HIGH ELEVATIONS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
RECOVERY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE THESE
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH LIKELY STILL SHY OF RED FLAG CRITERIA WITH THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. IN ADDITIONS...THE RECENT LIGHT RAINS LIKELY
MEAN THAT MOST FUELS IN THE AREA WILL BE ON THE MOIST
SIDE...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS LIKELY TO BE THE CASE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MENDOCINO COUNTY WHERE VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS
FALLEN. IN ANY CASE...A HEADLINE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST HIGHLIGHTING THE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS...BUT A RED
FLAG WARNING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /BRC
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
319 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015
.Synopsis...
Other than lingering mainly mountain and northern Sacramento
Valley showers into this evening...warmer and drier weather is
expected over interior NorCal this week. Breezy northerly winds
are expected at times early this week.
&&
.Discussion...
Main area of clouds with the potential for light showers is
returning to our CWA from the NW as sheared or stretched out
vorticity drops Swd along the CA coast on the backside of the larger
scale upper trof over the Wrn States. Cloud cover has expanded over
most of the Wrn half of Shasta/Tehama Cos and should continue to
spread SSEwd over most of the CWA this evening. High Resolution QPFs
from the HRRR suggests the precip will be confined mostly to the
Coastal Range where the main dynamics are moving through...and to a
lesser extent...the Siernev where cyclonic flow on the backside of
the upper low over NV may result in enough moisture and instability
for a "pop-up" shower or two from the Tahoe area Swd.
Warmer and drier conditions will be developing over interior NorCal
for the rest of the week due to increased ridging from the Ern Pac.
Increasing Nly surface pressure gradients in the wake of the upper
low and energy dropping Swd on the backside of the trof will lead to
locally breezy north winds later tonight into Tue before subsiding
Tue afternoon. The previously issued fire weather watch will be
cancelled due to the expected higher Min RH from the evaporation
from local recent wetting rains. Still there is the concern of
breezy Nly winds developing with a band of 25-35 kt 2000 ft winds
developing tonight and into Tue morning mainly from Shasta Co along
the W side of Sac Vly into Napa/Solano Co. This low level support
weakens Tue afternoon...but rebounds to a lesser extent again Tue
nite and Wed morning as the gradient turns more NEly or Ely. Since
the strongest band of wind is expected mainly overnight and into
the early morning hours on Tue...the decoupling lower atmosphere
will preclude strong or advisory criteria wind speeds. Then...the
NEly to Ely pressure gradient and core of the 925 mbs winds Tue
nite and Wed morning...would favor primarily the NE Sac Vly
foothill and Srn Lake Co/Napa Co areas with locally gusty ridge
winds. These mainly katabatic/downslope winds will also lead to
adiabatic warming effects on both the Min T/Max T the next couple
of days. However...a weak trof moving through the region on Thu
may result in some very slight cooling. In any event...Max Ts look
to be running some 5-10 degrees above normal for much of the week.
JHM
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)
High pressure will remain over our area through late this week
and into the weekend bringing warm and dry conditions. During this
period, temperatures look to be 10-15 degrees above normal. By Monday
both the GFS and ECMWF have a trough developing out over the
Pacific which will bring some cooling to our area. Beyond this,
models disagree on where and when the trough could move onshore
but this is getting beyond our forecast period.
Wilson
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions expected across the valley through the next
24 hours. A short wave passing through this afternoon will bring
some showers to the Northern Sacramento Valley and possibly some
MVFR conditions in the heavier showers. North winds are expected
to strengthen overnight and may be gusting up to 20/25kts
tomorrow morning in the Southern/Northern Sacramento Valley.
Wilson
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
902 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE ROBUST RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SHEARED APART. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS LIKELY...BUT INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THEN WEAKENING NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING TO ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10000 FT
TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW
SAN JUANS OVERNIGHT. UP TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
THERE WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH OF I-70. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SNOWFALL.
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE CULPRIT FOR ALL THIS WEATHER..A CLOSED
LOW...WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SRN AZ WHILE SPOKES OF ENERGY CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND IT. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALREADY POP UP BTWN NAM AND
GFS/EC WITH NAM HIGHLIGHTING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP FOR OUR NRN TIER
ZONES WHILE GFS/EC FAVOR AREAS SOUTH. H7 WINDS FOUND IN NAM OVER
THIS AREA ARE IN THE 30 TO 35MPH RANGE WHILE THOSE IN OTHER MODELS
ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 MPH. NAM MAY BE PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON
THESE WINDS BRINGING MORE PRECIP INTO THAT AREA. WITH CONFIDENCE
NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ATTM...WILL KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS GOING FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REALIZATION THAT SOME AREAS WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OR ANY PRECIP WHILE OTHERS WILL. LATER
SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED ONCE MODELS AGREE
ON THE FINER DETAILS. FOR WED NIGHT...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT SAN
JUANS WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET
LIKELY SEEING SOME SNOW...AN INCH OR THREE. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP. WILL SEE HOW MUCH SNOW THOSE AREAS
RECEIVE TONIGHT BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE LOW FINALLY OPENS UP THURSDAY AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD CORE MOVES OVERHEAD
CAUSING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WHILE PWATS STILL REMAIN HIGH.
ALL HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS FAVORED IN THE MODELS BUT SOME VALLEYS
WILL ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS TO BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST USHERING IN COOLER AIR. MODELS HIGHLIGHT A POST FRONTAL
WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...2 TO 4 INCHES...LOOKS POSSIBLE
ABOVE 9K FEET OR SO. THE FLAT TOPS AND NRN MTNS LOOK FAVORED
THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND SAN JUANS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SOME
SNOW...AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES.
FRIDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING MORE ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS THOUGH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LOWER THAN SEEN
LATELY.
FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY AND THIS FLOW PERSISTS
THROUGH MONDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THOUGH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD BUT NOTHING TOO EXCEPTIONAL. PRECIP CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH...AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT RANGE
LOOKS FAVORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. CIGS WILL
BRIEFLY DROP BELOW MVFR THRESHOLDS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 10K THROUGH THIS OPERATIONAL PERIOD. IFR
OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR KDRO AND KTEX FROM 21Z-00Z
...KMTJ...KCNY...KMTJ...KASE AND KEGE FROM 00Z-06Z. MOUNTAIN TOPS
WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ019.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
549 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
UPDATED TO RAISE POPS A BIT OVER THE ERN PLAINS. RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST HRRR POINT TO CONTINUED SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS E OF I-25 THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE A BIT OF A LULL AFTER 06Z
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
UPPER LOW FORECAST TO SWING INTO WESTERN AZ THIS EVENING...THEN LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER DURING THE DAY WED.
STRONG SHORT WAVE LIFTING AROUND THE LOW THROUGH NM ALREADY FORCING
A LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A FEW TSRA WORKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SANGRES/SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON. EXPECT WAVE TO ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A LULL IN PRECIP
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WAVE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WELL...WITH NORTH WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE TEMPORARILY HAMPERING
PRECIP AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS START NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL THIS EVENING...BUT SLOWLY FALL
OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 10000
FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAN JUANS.
ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER A MORNING LULL...PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPS AND
SPREADS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER...WHICH
INCREASES VERTICAL MOTION AND ALLOWS LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS TO TURN
MORE E-NE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. INSTABILITY RATHER LIMITED...BUT
WITH FAIRLY STRONG FORCING TOUGH TO RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION GOING ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...BUT WITH CONVECTION AND
STRONG UPWARD MOTION...EXPECT SOME RATHER HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 10000
FEET...INCLUDING THE SUMMIT OF PIKES PEAK. WILL HOIST A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES BEGINNING THIS EVENING
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WED...THOUGH IMPACTS MAY BE LIMITED TO
AREAS MAINLY ABOVE PASS LEVEL. ELEVATIONS IN THE 8-10K RANGE MAY SEE
SNOW AT TIMES UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION...THOUGH ACCUMS THIS LOW
SHOULD BE MINOR. MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...THOUGH
DID NUDGE MAX TEMP GRID UP SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL OF A
FEW RAIN FREE HOURS EARLY IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. WED NIGHT THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
AZ...CONTINUING TO DRAW A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS NM
AND INTO CO. THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO EJECT TO THE NE AND WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY THU...MOVING UP INTO EASTERN WY THU NIGHT.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CROSSES CO ON FRI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN...AND HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS...WILL OCCUR WED NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THU. BY THU EVE THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND
MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR SHOWERS TO START TAPERING OFF.
THEREFORE...THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS GOOD FOR
BEING IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z FRI. AS FOR TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON THU...THEN PERHAPS WARMING
UP TO NEAR 70F FOR FRI. LOW TEMPS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL
THREATEN THE SLV AND HIGH VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SAVE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SAT MORNING
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...THE WEEKEND LOOKS ESSENTIALLY DRY AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PAC
NW ON SUNDAY...THEN TRACKS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE AREA MON
AFTN...THEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WILL PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR ALL OF THE E PLAINS AND E MTS. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH DAYS IN THE 60S. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA MANY AREAS 00Z-05Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS
UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH MOST HIGHER PEAKS/PASSES OBSCURED
AFTER ABOUT 00Z. WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION THIS EVENING THEN VCSH
OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES.
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS INCREASES AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 06Z AS
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH LOWER CIGS AND SCATTERED -SHRA
PERSISTING INTO WED. MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY STAY OBSCURED FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH WED...THOUGH A FEW BREAKS MAY BE POSSIBLE
EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP DEVELOPS TOWARD
MIDDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF -TSRA/-SHRA WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS
TO CONTINUE WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS UNDER HEAVIER PRECIP.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-066-068-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1057 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK FOR LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
00Z HRRR BRINGS IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CT
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PRECIPITATION OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO DECIDE WHETHER TO ADD
IN ANY POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND/OR EARLY MORNING.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE
REGION. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WINDS
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION...SO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE. USED A MIX OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S...WITH THE COOLEST LOCATIONS RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING NEARBY...EXPECT
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE 40S AND 50S. A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOW IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND AND MID TO
UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BEGIN TO WARM UP
TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BEFORE
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND
STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WED MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
W/SW FLOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W/SE FLOW WED MORNING BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WED
AFT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS...MAINLY INLAND
AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW WINDS G20KT.
.FRI...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. FOR
THE OCEAN...WINDS AND WAVES WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET HAVE
DIMINISHED...AND SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED HERE. EAST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET...SCA CONTINUES UNTIL 10Z WED AS WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN
ABOVE SCA.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MIGHT ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL AREA WATERS.
SEAS AND WINDS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY AND REMAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY ON THE OCEAN IN A SOUTHWEST
FLOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/FIG
NEAR TERM...BC/JP
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...BC/FIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1036 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT...00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL A RATHER DRY BELOW H800
FROM HERE AND KBUF WHICH CONCUR WITH THE CEILINGS BETWEEN 5-8K
FEET. THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE CONTINUED TO TRACK EAST WEAKENED WITH
THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING A LITTLE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE
THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
UPSTREAM WAVE NEAR KORD THAT WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND FURTHER
INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS THE SAME AT THIS TIME. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...SEEMS WE ARE IN NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD A BIT DUE TO
THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND STILL A MILD EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT. HAVE FORECAST
POPS TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 50 PERCENT NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE NORTHERN HALF
OF BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES VERMONT. FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. STILL
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH GREATER
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY. IT WILL BE QUITE
MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AROUND 70 FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MORE
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE VERY
MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
POPS FOR THE DAY WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...RANGING DOWN TO ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 70 ONCE AGAIN.
MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CHILLY CANADIAN AIRMASS BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AS 1030+MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL TRANSVERSE THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS BUT AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THEN THE UPPER LOW/STORM IMPACTING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A QUICK SYNOPTIC SHIFT TOWARD A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...THERE
REMAINS A BRIEF TAP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FEED WHICH IS
SEEN IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. SO WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHER
POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING PER TIMING OF THE
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SUITE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AS OPPOSED TO THE GGEM/GFS
WHICH WANT TO LINGER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE I84
CORRIDOR. SEEMS THE KEY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE STRENGTH THE OF
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. ENSEMBLE MEANS DAMPEN OUT
THE FEATURES SO FOR NOW WE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY THE LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE AND KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF AS WE RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL.
CONSENSUS INCREASES FOR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WHICH FOR LATER OCTOBER...AVERAGE
HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/THU FOR KPOU-KPSF-KALB. WHILE
AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE PREVALENT...CIGS WERE ABOVE FLIGHT
THRESHOLDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE CLOSE TO KGFL...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS MAY ALSO IMPACT KALB-KPSF AS WE
WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND VCSH RESPECTFULLY.
GENERALLY...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP
THE GRADIENT RATHER DIFFUSE.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT... AND THEN DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A BETTERCHANCE
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
AGAIN BE LIGHT.
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...BGM/WASULA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...GJM/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1001 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK FOR LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
00Z HRRR BRINGS IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN CT
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ALONG AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO DECIDE WHETHER TO ADD IN ANY POPS
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND/OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE
REGION. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT TONIGHT...RESULTING IN WINDS
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION...SO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE. USED A MIX OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S...WITH THE COOLEST LOCATIONS RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING NEARBY...EXPECT
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE 40S AND 50S. A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOW IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND AND MID TO
UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BEGIN TO WARM UP
TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BEFORE
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND STALLS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WED MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
W/SW FLOW CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT
TONIGHT. LIGHT W/SE FLOW WED MORNING BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WED AFT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS...MAINLY INLAND
AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW WINDS G20KT.
.FRI...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. FOR THE OCEAN...WINDS AND WAVES WEST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET HAVE DIMINISHED...AND SCA HAS BEEN CANCELLED HERE. EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND INLET...SCA CONTINUES UNTIL 10Z WED AS WINDS AND WAVES
REMAIN ABOVE SCA.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MIGHT ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL AREA WATERS.
SEAS AND WINDS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY AND REMAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY ON THE OCEAN IN A SOUTHWEST
FLOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/FIG
NEAR TERM...BC/JP
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...BC/FIG
HYDROLOGY...BC/FIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
737 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
UPSTREAM SHOWERS AS THE LEADING EDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. AMPLE SHOWERS FURTHER
UPSTREAM ALONG I90 INTO BUFFALO CONTINUE TO TRACK ESE. THESE
SHOWERS WERE RIGHT ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AS MID-UPR
FLOW WAS CONFLUENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS RESULTS IN A CHANGE
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS/WX ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. IN FACT...LATEST HRRR POINTS TOWARD A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND LIKELY ASSISTING WITH MOISTENING
UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER THEN THE SECOND ROUND RESULTING IN A LITTLE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND. OTHERWISE...SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK OKAY AT
THE PRESENT TIME.
PREV DISC...
AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...
EXPECT CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
40S.
THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER WEST AND NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT. HAVE FORECAST
POPS TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 50 PERCENT NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE NORTHERN HALF
OF BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES VERMONT. FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. STILL
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH GREATER
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY. IT WILL BE QUITE
MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AROUND 70 FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MORE
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE VERY
MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
POPS FOR THE DAY WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...RANGING DOWN TO ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 70 ONCE AGAIN.
MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CHILLY CANADIAN AIRMASS BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AS 1030+MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL TRANSVERSE THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS BUT AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THEN THE UPPER LOW/STORM IMPACTING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A QUICK SYNOPTIC SHIFT TOWARD A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...THERE
REMAINS A BRIEF TAP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FEED WHICH IS
SEEN IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. SO WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHER
POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING PER TIMING OF THE
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SUITE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AS OPPOSED TO THE GGEM/GFS
WHICH WANT TO LINGER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE I84
CORRIDOR. SEEMS THE KEY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE STRENGTH THE OF
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. ENSEMBLE MEANS DAMPEN OUT
THE FEATURES SO FOR NOW WE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY THE LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE AND KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF AS WE RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL.
CONSENSUS INCREASES FOR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WHICH FOR LATER OCTOBER...AVERAGE
HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/THU FOR KPOU-KPSF-KALB. WHILE
AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE PREVALENT...CIGS WERE ABOVE FLIGHT
THRESHOLDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE CLOSE TO KGFL...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS MAY ALSO IMPACT KALB-KPSF AS WE
WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND VCSH RESPECTFULLY.
GENERALLY...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP
THE GRADIENT RATHER DIFFUSE.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT... AND THEN DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A BETTERCHANCE
OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
AGAIN BE LIGHT.
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...BGM/WASULA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...GJM/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DELIVER LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL YIELD MILDER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THIS
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FRI
AND SAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL
OVERSPREAD REST OF AREA BY MIDNIGHT. BEFORE THAT...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THIS EVENING DUE TO DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS...BEFORE CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING SW WINDS
CAUSE WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODIFIED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT THIS TREND.
GFS LAMP SHOWS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN FOR TEMPS TO HOLD IN MID 30S
ACROSS DEEPER VALLEYS OF WESTERN MA...PRIMARILY NEAR ORANGE...AS
OPPOSED TO WARMING OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE THAT IS GOING TO BE CASE
GIVEN CLOUDINESS ALREADY ON DOORSTEP...BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPS. DO NOT BELIEVE THERE
IS MUCH OF AN ICING THREAT OVERNIGHT SHOULD ANY LIGHT PRECIP
OCCUR.
LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN NY...WHICH IT KEEPS TO OUR N OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WARM
ADVECTION CAUSES ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NY...WHICH COULD AFFECT MUCH OF MA...N CT AND
RI TOWARD DAYBREAK. DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THESE
AREAS BUT IF IT OCCURS WOULD ONLY EXPECT SPRINKLES OR BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWER FROM MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
STRONG LOW LEVEL WSW JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT WINDS
ALOFT MIXING TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS POTENTIAL UP TO 40 TO 45
MPH ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. EVENTUALLY WARMING ALOFT
INCREASES RESULTING IN LESS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES FOR MIXING. THUS
STRONGEST WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY THEN TRENDING DOWNWARD MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT G40-45KT ACROSS
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DECIDED TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA. REALIZE WIND SPEEDS MAY FALL JUST SHY OF WIND CRITERIA
HOWEVER WITH LEAVES STILL FULLY LEAVED ACROSS THIS AREA THE
THRESHOLD IS LOWER FOR DOWN BRANCHES AND LIMBS. ELSEWHERE AND
FARTHER INLAND WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG BUT NEVERTHELESS STILL
A BREEZY/WINDY DAY.
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN TOMORROW IN THE WAA PATTERN BUT TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS 60 TO 65. VERY LOW RISK OF
A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW IN THE WAA PATTERN.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
TUE NIGHT...
BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS 1030 MB HIGH
OVER QUEBEC ADVECTS SOUTHEASTWARD. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
SHALLOW COOL AIR LIKELY BLEEDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST MA AND
POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWARD. OVERALL FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* WARMER WED/THU WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
* TURNING COOLER AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT
OF SPLIT FLOW OVER CONUS. IN NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM
CANADIAN PLAINS TO MARITIMES AND ALLOWS RIDGING TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES SUN. SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS DRY WEATHER OVERALL SINCE
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AHEAD OF ANY FRONTS.
EXTENDED FORECAST IS LARGELY BASED UPON BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...
BUT DID ADJUST WINDS THU AND FRI TO ACCOUNT FOR MIXING.
WED AND THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRONT REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED BEFORE LIFTING N AS WARM
FRONT THU. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING TREND BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY
THU AS INCREASING SW FLOW BOOSTS TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70 IN SOME
LOCATIONS THU AFTERNOON. DO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER CT AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN
BUT RIGHT NOW CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE CLOUDINESS SHOULD DOMINATE.
MAY NEED TO EDGE UP HIGHS THU IN LATER FORECASTS THOUGH.
NOT MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS EXPECTED EITHER DAY...EVEN WITH COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THU AFTERNOON. 12Z ENSEMBLES ONLY HAVE LOW
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER DYNAMICS STAY TO OUR N. 12Z MODELS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN WAY OF RAINFALL EITHER WITH SW FLOW IN PLACE...
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DOES STRENGTHEN A BIT AS FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE THU EVENING. KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN MA WED/THU
AND NEAR CAPE COD LATE THU/THU NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
FRI INTO SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY
AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ALONG WITH BANDS OF OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS
NEAR CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN 50S AND LOWS IN 30S/40S.
SUN INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS REGION SUN WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT.
AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO TAP INTO SO ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS
AT BEST SUN. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE MON MORNING FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM GREAT LAKES. HIGHS WARM
BACK INTO 50S/LOWER 60S SUN AHEAD OF FRONT THEN BACK INTO 50S MON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
7 PM UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
VFR WITH CIGS AOA 080 TONIGHT. MAY SEE SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER
OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO WET GROUND. ANY SHOWERS
TUE/TUE NIGHT CONFINED TO NORTHERN MA. MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS
REMAIN DRY.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WSW JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 06Z-18Z TUE. WIND
GUSTS AT THE SURFACE COULD REACH 40 KT OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
WITH LESS WIND INLAND. GIVEN GOOD MIXING ALONG THE COAST NOT
EXPECTING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS A RIBBON OF 45 KT
WSW WINDS AT 2-3KFT WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST 06Z-18Z TUE.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
08Z-11Z TUE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WED...VFR.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30KT.
FRI...VFR. N/NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT.
SAT...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...
WSW WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH SW GALES POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS. THUS GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN POSTED. ELSEWHERE WINDS INCREASING 20 TO 30 KT. OTHER
THAN A FEW SPRINKLES LATE DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY PREVAIL.
TUE...
SW GALES POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE. OTHER
THAN A FEW SPRINKLES LATE DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY PREVAIL. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.
TUE NIGHT...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE WATERS. OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES LATE DRY
WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA WED AS FRONT SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND RESULTS IN LIGHT E FLOW. HOWEVER INCREASING S/SW
FLOW GETS UNDERWAY THU AS FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED DUE TO 25-30KT GUSTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 5-7
FT. PATTERN FAVORS STEEP WAVES ON NEARSHORE WATERS SUCH AS BUZZARDS
BAY AND VINEYARD SOUND AGAINST OUTGOING TIDE...AND ON CAPE COD BAY
FROM INCOMING TIDE.
NOT MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS EXPECTED WED/THU WITH EITHER FRONT...
PROBABLY JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MOST.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED FRI
INTO SAT MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING SCA CONDITIONS WITH 25KT GUSTS
AND 4-6 FT SEAS OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH SAT
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1013 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT
BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION PLUS SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ADVECTING INTO SOUTH GEORGIA
FROM THE ATLANTIC MAY GET INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM TIME-
HEIGHT DISPLAYS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DESPITE
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY SO BELIEVE FOG WILL BE LIMITED AND THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY LOW
PROBABILITIES FROM THE SREF GUIDANCE PLUS THE NAM AND GFS MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
AREA TO POSE LITTLE TO NO RAIN THREAT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT OVERNIGHT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONTROLLING THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE
MAKING IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERALLY KEEP THINGS DRY
IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S MONDAY...AND
IN THE 60S TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL IN THE THE 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION CENTERED MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA (FA)...AND IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT VERY SLIGHTLY NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
FA...INCLUDING GREATER CAE AND AGS...BUT SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
RECOVERY NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA INCLUDING OGB. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE AREA OF STRATOCU OFFSHORE AND OVER
PORTIONS OF THE S SC COASTAL PLAIN AND SE GA. MODELS AND SATELLITE
LOOPS SUGGEST SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD DRIFT INLAND TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME OF IT COULD
DISSIPATE AS IT DRIFTS INLAND. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RECOVERY COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FA AND TOWARDS THE COAST. LATEST HRRR MODELS SUGGESTS
SUCH...THOUGH OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE NOT AS BULLISH. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS GREATEST THREAT OF REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG...OR ANY
STRATUS...WILL BE AT OGB...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MVFR
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AT THE OTHER TERMINALS.
AFTER ANY MORNING RESTRICTIONS...VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
SCT CU/SCU WITH BASES ABOVE VFR LEVEL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
938 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT COULD AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. NUDGED LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN 1-2 DEGS WEST OF HWY 17 IN UPPER CHARLESTON
COUNTY AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE...1027 HPA...CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS WILL HOLD ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA TONIGHT.
A BROAD EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF STRATOCUMULUS ONSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY OVER
COASTAL GEORGIA...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BECOME. THE LATEST NAM AND RAP SHOW A BIT
LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT ARE STILL MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 20/12Z GEM CLOUD COVER PRODUCT. HAVE LOWERED
CLOUD COVER JUST A BIT GIVEN THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
TRENDS...BUT STILL SHOW SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ROUGHLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF A HILTON HEAD-LUDOWICI LINE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS WEAK ISENTROPIC ASSENT ENSUES. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO PREVAIL INLAND.
WEAK ISENTROPIC 295-300K ASSENT LOOKS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
GEORGIA COAST AFTER 2-3 AM...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH INLAND
PENETRATION OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DOES APPROACH THE GEORGIA
BEACHES...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE CONFINED IN THOSE ZONES
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. MEANWHILE...EXPECT A VERY
WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TO LINGER JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ADVECT AMPLE
MOISTURE IN TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CUMULUS AND/OR
STRATOCUMULUS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SKIES
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. MODELS SHIFTED THE ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE COAST BOTH OF THESE DAYS, SO
ADJUSTED POPS UPWARDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO REFLECT THIS.
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS, BUT NOT A COMPLETE
WASHOUT. FRIDAY THE COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
WILL LEAD TO A DRY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
GIVEN THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL (IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S), THEN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER
80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SHOULD DRIVE A
WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. EXPECT
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN SUBSIDENCE...LIMITED
MOISTURE AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER WITH SOME OF THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS...
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THEN NORTHWEST AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. COULD SEE A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND...BUT SUSPECT ANY CIGS
THAT ARE ESTABLISHED WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
COASTAL TROUGH LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL
PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD IN PLACE TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST
WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4
FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND A SOLID 5 FT FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE
WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. A SEPARATE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALSO PREVAIL FAR OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DURING
THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS AND
AN ELONGATED BUT WEAK COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE WILL CREATE A
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A NORTHEAST MODERATE
BREEZE (AROUND 15 KT). WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE SHOULD REACH THE
STRENGTH OF A FRESH BREEZE (AROUND 20 KT). THESE STRONGER WINDS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A LONG FETCH POINTED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WILL ALLOW LARGER WAVES TO BUILD. THESE WAVES WILL PROPAGATE INTO
OUR WATERS, MAINTAINING ELEVATED SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OR
POSSIBLY FRIDAY. SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS COULD BUILD
TO 6 FT LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HELD OFF ON ISSUING ONE WITH THIS PACKAGE
BECAUSE THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY POSSIBLE IN THE WAVE
HEIGHTS, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OFFSHORE AND THE
ORIENTATION THE BEST FETCH TOWARDS THE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...WEAKENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ALLOWING
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND DOWNWARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN BRIEFLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
BEFORE THEY COULD START DETERIORATING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
721 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT
BECAUSE OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION PLUS SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ADVECTING INTO SOUTH GEORGIA
FROM THE ATLANTIC MAY GET INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM TIME-
HEIGHT DISPLAYS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DESPITE
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IT SHOULD STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY SO BELIEVE FOG WILL BE LIMITED AND THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY LOW
PROBABILITIES FROM THE SREF GUIDANCE PLUS THE NAM AND GFS MOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
AREA TO POSE LITTLE TO NO RAIN THREAT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT OVERNIGHT
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONTROLLING THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE
MAKING IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL GENERALLY KEEP THINGS DRY
IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S MONDAY...AND
IN THE 60S TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL IN THE THE 50S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION CENTERED MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA (FA)...AND IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT VERY SLIGHTLY NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
FA...INCLUDING GREATER CAE AND AGS...BUT SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT
RECOVERY NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA INCLUDING OGB. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE AREA OF STRATOCU OFFSHORE AND OVER
PORTIONS OF THE S SC COASTAL PLAIN AND SE GA. MODELS AND SATELLITE
LOOPS SUGGEST SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER COULD DRIFT INLAND TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME OF IT COULD
DISSIPATE AS IT DRIFTS INLAND. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RECOVERY COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO FOG/STRATUS OVER THE
SOUTHERN FA AND TOWARDS THE COAST. LATEST HRRR MODELS SUGGESTS
SUCH...THOUGH OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE NOT AS BULLISH. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS GREATEST THREAT OF REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG...OR ANY
STRATUS...WILL BE AT OGB...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MVFR
POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AT THE OTHER TERMINALS.
AFTER ANY MORNING RESTRICTIONS...VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY AND DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
SCT CU/SCU WITH BASES ABOVE VFR LEVEL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
843 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
Going to have to boost PoPs, at least a little, across much of the
forecast area tonight. A MCV from a pesky convective complex is
currently tracking east across northern Illinois. Some enhanced
forcing trailing from this MCV, along with a developing nocturnal
low-level jet, is increasing shower development over the western
portion of the forecast area. This development is likely to track
east along with the MCV, although a the airmass is drier and low-
level jet weaker as you head east. Despite the higher PoPs, the
overall rainfall should be minimal due to the very dry low-level
airmass across central Illinois. Other tweaks to forecast will be
minor.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1030mb high centered over the
southeast CONUS and a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into
the Northern Plains. Between these two features...strong
southwesterly winds will continue to transport warm air into
Illinois tonight. Latest satellite/radar composite shows remnants
of convective cluster that formed along the nose of a low-level jet
late last night over northwest Missouri now crossing the Mississippi
River just north of Quincy. These showers will continue to track
northeastward over the next few hours, mainly impacting locations
northwest of the Illinois River. As the nocturnal LLJ once again
strengthens from eastern Kansas to northern Illinois tonight,
additional showers will develop across north-central Illinois. Both
the NAM and HRRR suggest the northern half of the KILX CWA could
potentially see showers, so will carry a slight chance PoP across
this area accordingly. Further south will maintain a dry forecast.
Due to increasing cloud cover and a continued southerly wind of 10-
15 mph, overnight low temperatures will be considerably warmer than
in recent nights. Readings will range from the upper 40s near the
Indiana border, to the middle to upper 50s along/west of I-55.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
Breezy southwest winds will continue Wednesday as high
pressure remains off the central Atlantic coastline and low
pressure moves eastward through the northern Great Lakes area.
Sustained SW winds around 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph can be
expected. A frontal boundary trailing the low will bring at least a
slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms settling
southward through central IL Wednesday evening through Thursday as
moisture advects northward from the Gulf in southerly flow ahead of
the boundary. Warm conditions will precede the front...with highs
reaching around 80 degrees throughout central IL
Wednesday...lowering several degrees from I-72 northward for
Thursday. To the south...little cooling will take place as the front
stalls out and weakens in that vicinity. Highs mainly in the low to
mid 70s will follow for Friday and Saturday.
Next chance for precipitation will take place Friday into Saturday
as models coming into fairly good agreement tracking a surface low
into the upper Midwest by Friday evening...with precipitation moving
into western Illinois by Friday afternoon. General model trend has
been to move this system in faster over the past few days...with the
latest runs continuing to speed up the system...although the run-to-
run differences are not dramatic as of the 12Z run. Timing of
the cold front associated with this system...combined with forecast
instability ahead of the front still supports a chance for
thunderstorms Saturday...especially toward the southern and eastern
portions of Illinois.
Cooler and dry conditions will follow the front for Sunday through
Tuesday...except for possibly a few showers lingering in SE Illinois
Sunday. Highs should drop back to near normal for central/SE
Illinois...with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows
generally in the low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
Breezy south to southwest winds will persist across the central
Illinois terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time, with the most
gusty winds occurring near peak heating on Wednesday. Some LLWS
is possible tonight, most likely at KPIA, with the nocturnal
subsiding of the gusty surface winds. VFR conditions will prevail
through the period with mainly mid level CIGS expected tonight
into Wednesday morning. A few sprinkles can`t be ruled out, again
especially at KPIA, but no significant rainfall is anticipated.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
646 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1030mb high centered over the
southeast CONUS and a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into
the Northern Plains. Between these two features...strong
southwesterly winds will continue to transport warm air into
Illinois tonight. Latest satellite/radar composite shows remnants
of convective cluster that formed along the nose of a low-level jet
late last night over northwest Missouri now crossing the Mississippi
River just north of Quincy. These showers will continue to track
northeastward over the next few hours, mainly impacting locations
northwest of the Illinois River. As the nocturnal LLJ once again
strengthens from eastern Kansas to northern Illinois tonight,
additional showers will develop across north-central Illinois. Both
the NAM and HRRR suggest the northern half of the KILX CWA could
potentially see showers, so will carry a slight chance PoP across
this area accordingly. Further south will maintain a dry forecast.
Due to increasing cloud cover and a continued southerly wind of 10-
15 mph, overnight low temperatures will be considerably warmer than
in recent nights. Readings will range from the upper 40s near the
Indiana border, to the middle to upper 50s along/west of I-55.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
Breezy southwest winds will continue Wednesday as high
pressure remains off the central Atlantic coastline and low
pressure moves eastward through the northern Great Lakes area.
Sustained SW winds around 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph can be
expected. A frontal boundary trailing the low will bring at least a
slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms settling
southward through central IL Wednesday evening through Thursday as
moisture advects northward from the Gulf in southerly flow ahead of
the boundary. Warm conditions will precede the front...with highs
reaching around 80 degrees throughout central IL
Wednesday...lowering several degrees from I-72 northward for
Thursday. To the south...little cooling will take place as the front
stalls out and weakens in that vicinity. Highs mainly in the low to
mid 70s will follow for Friday and Saturday.
Next chance for precipitation will take place Friday into Saturday
as models coming into fairly good agreement tracking a surface low
into the upper Midwest by Friday evening...with precipitation moving
into western Illinois by Friday afternoon. General model trend has
been to move this system in faster over the past few days...with the
latest runs continuing to speed up the system...although the run-to-
run differences are not dramatic as of the 12Z run. Timing of
the cold front associated with this system...combined with forecast
instability ahead of the front still supports a chance for
thunderstorms Saturday...especially toward the southern and eastern
portions of Illinois.
Cooler and dry conditions will follow the front for Sunday through
Tuesday...except for possibly a few showers lingering in SE Illinois
Sunday. Highs should drop back to near normal for central/SE
Illinois...with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows
generally in the low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
Breezy south to southwest winds will persist across the central
Illinois terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time, with the most
gusty winds occurring near peak heating on Wednesday. Some LLWS
is possible tonight, most likely at KPIA, with the nocturnal
subsiding of the gusty surface winds. VFR conditions will prevail
through the period with mainly mid level CIGS expected tonight
into Wednesday morning. A few sprinkles can`t be ruled out, again
especially at KPIA, but no significant rainfall is anticipated.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1232 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Going forecast is largely on track. Dry air is allowing
temperatures to rise nicely. VAD wind profile from our radar is
showing 35-40 knots at an elevation of 1500-2000 feet, and this is
mixing down with the abundant sunshine. Wind gusts across the
northern third of the forecast area are already starting to
approach 30 mph, with a 35 mph gusts observed on the 9 am
observation from Bloomington. Recent update mainly adjusted
high temperatures up a degree or two across the western CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Fire weather concerns highlight the short term. Increasing winds
under a tightening pressure gradient will be the controlling factor
as to what counties are included in a Red Flag Warning for extreme
fire weather conditions. Very low RH and dry fuels will be present
in all of our forecast area this afternoon, but the strongest winds
of 15-25 mph gusting to 30 mph will be mainly confined to our
western and northern counties. We upgraded all of the counties that
were in a Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning, and added
additional counties across the north. This includes our counties NW
of the IL river, with the addition of Woodford, Tazewell and McLean
counties.
The dry airmass will preclude much in the way of cloud cover, with
full sun aiding in producing a deep mixing layer to tap into the
strong mid-level winds.
Temperatures today will begin an upward trend, as brisk southwest
winds usher milder conditions into IL. Highs should top out 7 to 10F
deg warmer than yesterday, with readings in the upper 60s southeast
of I-70, and low to mid 70s west of I-55.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Surface high pressure sliding to the east will leave the Midwest in
more southerly flow, continuing the unseasonably warm days. Central
Illinois will see max temps in the 70s tomorrow...and through the
mid to upper 70s by Wednesday, with some locations in the lower 80s.
Deep upper low passing over Hudson Bay Mon-Tues dragging a front
across the Midwest. Models continue to introduce some precip to the
northwestern portions of the state. Have started trending in some
chance pops nw of the Illinois River Valley this morning for
overnight Tuesday...but in general, the front is not quite overrun
with precip. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are hinting at some
scattered activity along the boundary...most of it to the north.
Front is starting to slow somewhat in the push through the
region...and some sct activity lingering into Wednesday in the
models. Have kept the forecast somewhat conservative for now,
keeping to slights during the work week. Cooler temperatures follow
for the end of the week behind the front. Beyond that, the desert SW
low finally kicks out and through the Midwest bringing the best
precip chances in the forecast for this weekend...Friday night and
Saturday. Depending on the location of the boundary in the Midwest
for Saturday`s max heat of the day, may need to introduce some
scattered thunder for Saturday afternoon in the next couple runs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Main concern through the TAF period will be with the winds. Gusts
the last couple hours have been consistently in the 30 knot range
from KBMI-KCMI, and bit more sporadic at KDEC. A lot of the higher
gusts aloft have mixed down already with the sunshine, per the
Lincoln Doppler radar wind profile, so the highest gusts should
persist a couple more hours. Currently looking like early to mid
evening before the winds settle down appreciably, but they should
remain sustained around 10 knots or so through the night. Have
introduced another round of LLWS at KPIA/KBMI tonight, as the
lower level jet sets up from northern Missouri to southern Lake
Michigan. LLWS conditions a bit more borderline at the TAF sites
further south, so will hold off mention for now. Am expecting the
gusts to pick up again late Tuesday morning, although likely not
as high as now as there will be some cloud cover to stifle some of
the mixing.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Have expanded the Red Flag Warning a row of counties southward,
now extending from Havana through Lincoln to Champaign and
Danville. Highest wind gusts at midday are near Champaign with
persistent gusts 30-35 mph. Wind speed criteria is a bit
borderline further west toward Lincoln, but humidity levels will
be dipping below 25% soon.
PREVIOUS UPDATE AT 956 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Already starting to see wind gusts of 25-30 mph across the
northern third of the forecast area, with gusts around 35 mph in
Bloomington. The pressure gradient will remain tight through the
afternoon, keeping the winds gusting over 30 mph across the
northern half of the forecast area. Latest HRRR and RAP guidance
suggest the highest winds will be through early afternoon as the
core of the low level jet gets mixed toward the surface. Dew
points in the upper 20s to lower 30s already, and some modest
increase is possible west of I-55 this afternoon, but
significantly warmer temperatures will offset that and humidity
values should be 20-25%. No changes anticipated to the Red Flag
Warning at this time, with the alignment set based on the location
of the highest winds.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart
FIRE WEATHER...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
956 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Going forecast is largely on track. Dry air is allowing
temperatures to rise nicely. VAD wind profile from our radar is
showing 35-40 knots at an elevation of 1500-2000 feet, and this is
mixing down with the abundant sunshine. Wind gusts across the
northern third of the forecast area are already starting to
approach 30 mph, with a 35 mph gusts observed on the 9 am
observation from Bloomington. Recent update mainly adjusted
high temperatures up a degree or two across the western CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Fire weather concerns highlight the short term. Increasing winds
under a tightening pressure gradient will be the controlling factor
as to what counties are included in a Red Flag Warning for extreme
fire weather conditions. Very low RH and dry fuels will be present
in all of our forecast area this afternoon, but the strongest winds
of 15-25 mph gusting to 30 mph will be mainly confined to our
western and northern counties. We upgraded all of the counties that
were in a Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning, and added
additional counties across the north. This includes our counties NW
of the IL river, with the addition of Woodford, Tazewell and McLean
counties.
The dry airmass will preclude much in the way of cloud cover, with
full sun aiding in producing a deep mixing layer to tap into the
strong mid-level winds.
Temperatures today will begin an upward trend, as brisk southwest
winds usher milder conditions into IL. Highs should top out 7 to 10F
deg warmer than yesterday, with readings in the upper 60s southeast
of I-70, and low to mid 70s west of I-55.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Surface high pressure sliding to the east will leave the Midwest in
more southerly flow, continuing the unseasonably warm days. Central
Illinois will see max temps in the 70s tomorrow...and through the
mid to upper 70s by Wednesday, with some locations in the lower 80s.
Deep upper low passing over Hudson Bay Mon-Tues dragging a front
across the Midwest. Models continue to introduce some precip to the
northwestern portions of the state. Have started trending in some
chance pops nw of the Illinois River Valley this morning for
overnight Tuesday...but in general, the front is not quite overrun
with precip. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are hinting at some
scattered activity along the boundary...most of it to the north.
Front is starting to slow somewhat in the push through the
region...and some sct activity lingering into Wednesday in the
models. Have kept the forecast somewhat conservative for now,
keeping to slights during the work week. Cooler temperatures follow
for the end of the week behind the front. Beyond that, the desert SW
low finally kicks out and through the Midwest bringing the best
precip chances in the forecast for this weekend...Friday night and
Saturday. Depending on the location of the boundary in the Midwest
for Saturday`s max heat of the day, may need to introduce some
scattered thunder for Saturday afternoon in the next couple runs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
VFR conditions are expected thru tonight. The main concern will
be with the strong southerly winds today. Still looking at a
period of LLWS early through 14z this morning before winds
increase. After 15z, sustained winds should climb to 15 to 20 kts, with
some gusts up to 30 kts at times late this morning through mid
afternoon. The gusty south to southwest winds will gradually
subside after 02z Tue with sustained winds ranging from 10 to 15
kts overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Already starting to see wind gusts of 25-30 mph across the
northern third of the forecast area, with gusts around 35 mph in
Bloomington. The pressure gradient will remain tight through the
afternoon, keeping the winds gusting over 30 mph across the
northern half of the forecast area. Latest HRRR and RAP guidance
suggest the highest winds will be through early afternoon as the
core of the low level jet gets mixed toward the surface. Dew
points in the upper 20s to lower 30s already, and some modest
increase is possible west of I-55 this afternoon, but
significantly warmer temperatures will offset that and humidity
values should be 20-25%. No changes anticipated to the Red Flag
Warning at this time, with the alignment set based on the location
of the highest winds.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
FIRE WEATHER...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
903 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
REST OF THIS EVE INTO EARLY OVRNGT WILL SEE CONTINUED DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM W TO E... AS LOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE MIGRATES EASTWARD. SYSTEM DEPOSITED 1-3 INCH RAIN TOTALS
OVER PORTIONS OF IOWA...JOHNSON...MUSCATINE AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES ALONG WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL PEA TO NEAR
PENNY SIZE. MLI FINALLY SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN 31 DAYS TYING FOR THE 7TH LONGEST DRY STREAK ON RECORD. IN
WAKE OF SYSTEM... MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG OVRNGT WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
MINS TNGT DOWN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS MAINLY NORTH HALF OF CWA
WHERE CURRENT TEMPS IN A FEW LOCATIONS ARE AT OR JUST BELOW FCST
LOWS DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR.
OTHERWISE...WATCHING ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE CURRENTLY LIFTING
NEWD THROUGH KS. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO GET SHUTTLED UP OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VLY NEXT 24 HRS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT MAY SEE
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES WITH VEERING LOW
LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALSO HINTED AT BY LATEST RUNS OF
HRRR AND RAP ... THUS HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHC/ISOLD COVERAGE WORDING
FOR LATER TNGT SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES. THESE RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TO EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING DAY ON WEDNESDAY ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE... AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD SHOWERS FOR NOW... BUT TRENDS
AND FORCING WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE. DID NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH IF MORE
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THEN THESE COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK 850MB LOW IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A LLJ RAN
FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. SATELLITE TRENDS HAS MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND THERE IS SOME THUNDER EMBEDDED
WITH THE CONVECTION.
18Z SFC DATA HAS A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN AND A WEAK LOW IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS WERE IN 30S
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH 40S AND 50S FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR DATA AND TRENDS FROM THE RAP...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA AS MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS DECREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
ON WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH NO APPARENT TRIGGER OR FORCING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT ARE
COMING FROM THE WEST WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK.
THUS WILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
WARM TEMPERATURES. ONE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY RUMBLE OF
THUNDER EITHER. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE TWO CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
THE FIRST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AND THE OTHER WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AT
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA AT THE BEGINNING OF
PERIOD LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH. AS SUCH HAVE SCHC WITH A
LOW END CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIRES ARW AND NMM BOTH OF
MODEL REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT. THE BOUNDARY THEN SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND STALLS OUT WITH A H5 RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SW ON FRIDAY AND THE
SFC BOUNDARY RETURNS TO THE NORTH. A ROBUST WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE THE AREA
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. A PREFRONTAL WAVE LOOKS TO FIRE
PRECIP BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN. THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE WOULD SUGGEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF THERE WAS
ANY INSTABILITY. THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM THIS WAVE
SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM. IF
FOR SOME REASON THE SFC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURNS SOONER THAN
PROGGED...SLIGHT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WOULD LEAD TO A HSLC
TORNADO THREAT. THIS IS A VERY LOW CHANCE...AND INGREDIENTS NEED TO
MATCH UP FOR IT OCCUR...BUT NONETHELESS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AMOUNT
WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE PRECIP SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND LEAD TO A
DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PAST THIS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR DATA AND TRENDS FROM THE RAP...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA AS MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS DECREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
ON WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH NO APPARENT TRIGGER OR FORCING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT ARE
COMING FROM THE WEST WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK.
THUS WILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
WARM TEMPERATURES. ONE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY RUMBLE OF
THUNDER EITHER. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE TWO CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
THE FIRST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AND THE OTHER WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AT
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA AT THE BEGINNING OF
PERIOD LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH. AS SUCH HAVE SCHC WITH A
LOW END CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIRES ARW AND NMM BOTH OF
MODEL REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT. THE BOUNDARY THEN SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND STALLS OUT WITH A H5 RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SW ON FRIDAY AND THE
SFC BOUNDARY RETURNS TO THE NORTH. A ROBUST WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE THE AREA
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. A PREFRONTAL WAVE LOOKS TO FIRE
PRECIP BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN. THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE WOULD SUGGEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF THERE WAS
ANY INSTABILITY. THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM THIS WAVE
SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM. IF
FOR SOME REASON THE SFC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURNS SOONER THAN
PROGGED...SLIGHT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WOULD LEAD TO A HSLC
TORNADO THREAT. THIS IS A VERY LOW CHANCE...AND INGREDIENTS NEED TO
MATCH UP FOR IT OCCUR...BUT NONETHELESS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AMOUNT
WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE PRECIP SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND LEAD TO A
DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PAST THIS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE EXITING KCID
SHORTLY AND CONTINUE TO AFFECT KDBQ AND KMLI THIS EVENING. KBRL
LOOKS TO BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE AND WHILE A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT... PROBABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW FOR MENTION THERE ATTIM
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND IF NEEDED. CONDITIONS IN
THE PRECIPITATION WILL DROP TO MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING LATE EVENING WITH RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. LATE TONIGHT ANTICIPATE SOME FOG POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY
AT TAF SITES WHICH RECEIVED RAIN... AND FOR NOW HAVE ADDED TEMPO
FOR MVFR VSBY 09Z-13Z AT ALL SITES BUT KBRL. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLD PM SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1139 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND ALONG CO/KS BORDER. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS
DEEPENED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH SW GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA. A
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF KMCK AND TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT-MONDAY...WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL PASSING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN PASSING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
LITTLE ELSE. GFS DOES SHOW A LITTLE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR NORTH. DRY
MOISTURE PROFILES BELOW THESE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER EVEN WITH GFS
WOULD LIKELY BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. LEE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE
WEST AND SHIFT TO SW FLOW ALOFT. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS A RESULT
AND WINDS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER COMPARED TO TODAY. A VERY
SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN COMPLICATION WILL BE
THICKNESS/COVERAGE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER. CLOUD COVER APPEARS
TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITHIN SW FLOW...SO AT THIS TIME
ANTICIPATED IMPACT ON HIGHS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE CUT OFF SYSTEM IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT FINALLY LIFTS
OUT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OCCURRING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. 48-HOUR QPF TOTALS ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY ARE
ACTUALLY QUITE SIMILAR FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
FORECAST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND 0.50 TO 1 INCH GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE. A FAVORABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH IN MID
LEVELS AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE LOWER
LEVELS RESULT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL LEADING UP TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
320 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF KENTUCKY WITH A
RELATIVELY LOOSE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT TIGHTER AS
YOU GO NORTHWEST TOWARD MUCH LOWER PRESSURE. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT
THE SKIES CLEAR TODAY AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE READINGS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S YIELDING HUMIDITIES DOWN IN
THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
ALTHOUGH THE HIGH IS KEEPING WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT...THE DEEP
MIXING IS BRINGING DOWN SOME OCCASIONAL SOUTH SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS THEY ALL DEPICT FLAT AND BROAD RIDGING SPREADING OVER THE
REGION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY WEAK ENERGY WILL DRIFT PAST
EASTERN KENTUCKY AMID THOSE HIGHER HEIGHTS. THE PATTERN DOES
START TO CHANGE AFTER THE SHORT TERM WITH A DEVELOPING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH MOVING EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO. AGAIN FAVORED THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER
DETAILS GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AGAIN...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
GIVEN THE MODERATING HIGH DEPARTING THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER
THAN TODAY WITH SIMILAR LOW RH CONCERNS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
MORE...AS WELL...RUNNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS LOW RH AND INCREASING WIND
CONCERN IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MILDER TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH STILL A LARGE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG NEAR DAWN.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR
POPS...ONCE AGAIN ZEROED THEM OUT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
IN LINE WITH ALL GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING A PLEASANT STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER. STILL
WATCHING FOR SOME VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE...BUT GIVEN
THE DRY CONDITIONS LEADING UP TO WEDNESDAY...ANY WIND COULD POSE
A FIRE DANGER. PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.
A COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN MOISTURE
STARVED AND POSE NO THREAT TO OUR WEATHER OUTSIDE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN SKY COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SOUTH WAVE CROSSING TEXAS
ON SATURDAY. WHILE ITS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THESE TWO WAVES WILL
INTERACT AS THEY MOVE EAST...IT DOES APPEAR THESE WAVES WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT
RAIN CHANCES AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE
COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON BEST RAIN CHANCES COMING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED
UPWARDS FOR THESE TWO PERIODS. THE FRONT COULD HANG UP OVER THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED. ANY RAIN WILL BE WELCOME AFTER THE EXTENDED STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER...AND SHOULD HOPEFULLY HELP BRING A TEMPORARY END TO
ANY FIRE DANGER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. AS THE HIGH TRANSITIONS EAST OF OUR REGION INTO
TUESDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
TILT...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN UNDER 5 KNOTS MOST PLACES. PATCHY
FOG IS FORECASTED...BUT JUST FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...LATE
TONIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
128 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS HIGH HAS BROUGHT CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND A DRY AIRMASS. WITH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR
IN MANY CASES A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT SHOULD END UP SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT IF NOT A DEGREE LOWER
ACROSS SOME OF THE THE EASTERN VALLEYS. THE RIDGETOPS SHOULD END
UP A A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO AN
ANTICIPATED MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED. ACCORDINGLY...THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 3 TO 9 AM EDT ON MONDAY. A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG
RIVERS OR LAKES SHOULD ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL.
OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND KENTUCKY. THIS HAS KEPT THE CLOUDS AT BAY TODAY AND ALSO THE
WINDS LIGHT. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT DID MIX DOWN BETTER THIS
AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 20S. WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S RH VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW 30S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO SERVE WELL FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE
DROP OFF THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS A BROAD AND FLATTENING RIDGE EASES INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. SOME WEAK ENERGY
WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT IN A RISING HEIGHT
ENVIRONMENT THIS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT
WHILE ALSO FAVORING THE GFS CO-OP MOS...TO A CERTAIN EXTENT...FOR
SITE SPECIFIC LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH A LARGER
RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT DEVELOPING AROUND SUNSET AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FOR THE VALLEYS BY DAWN ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE OUR FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...DO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BATCH OF PATCHY DENSE
FOG ALONG THE RIVERS AND LAKES ACROSS THE CWA TOWARD DAWN. WITH
THE MODERATING SFC HIGH DOMINATING THE WX SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS THE HIGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY
OPENING UP A LARGER RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT BUT ALSO TEMPERATURES 5
TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LOWS. PATCHY FOG WILL
ALSO BE FOUND ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS MONDAY MORNING.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR
POPS...ONCE AGAIN ZEROED THEM OUT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...IN LINE WITH ALL GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 70 THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT FOR THIS WEEK WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES
FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE RH`S INTO
THE TEENS. RH WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MORE LOW RH`S COULD RETURN.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH TO LIMIT OVERALL WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY HAVE SOME
IFR OR LOWER REDUCTIONS IN FOG BETWEEN 8Z AND 13Z OR SO...BUT THIS
IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES. THUS...THE TAF SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL ALSO LEAD TO
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP/JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
936 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE
AREA WILL ALSO SEE CHANCES OF RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
COME TO AN END BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO
COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER THREAT OF RAIN WILL COME IN ON
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
I INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO 80 PCT OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA
AS THE CONVECTIVE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF IOWA HEADS TOWARD
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. ALREADY THE PRECIPITATION ECHOES ARE
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF LITTLE SABLE POINT...OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE SHORTWAVE IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. I ALSO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TILL MIDNIGHT AS SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY DOES NOW GET
INTO THOSE COUNTIES (23Z RAP MODEL).
EVEN THROUGH THE RAP MODEL SHOWS AREA OF 1000/850 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASING AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE 10 PM
TO 2 AM TIME FRAME...IT ALSO KILLS THE LOW LEVEL JET ASSOICATED
WITH THAT CONVECTIVE VORT AS IT MOVES TOWARD MICHIGAN. IN SO DOING
IT ALSO KILLS THE PRECIPITATION TOO. SINCE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
LOOKS GOOD AND THE SYSTEM STILL LOOKS GOOD ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES I
AM GOING WITH THE SYSTEM HOLDING TOGETHER ANYWAY. THUS I KEEP THE
60 TO 70 PCT POP NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96 GOING TILL 8 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
OUR MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING RAIN TRENDS AND
THUNDER CHCS THROUGH WED NIGHT.
WE HAVE A COUPLE OF NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE IS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER THAT IS MOVING EAST...AND
DIMINISHING. ANOTHER IS BETWEEN I-96 AND I-94 THAT IS COMING FROM
THE CHICAGO AREA AND SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE ARE EXPECTING THESE
SHOWERS TO TREND DOWN BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND BRINGING A LULL IN
PCPN FOR A FEW HOURS.
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF WED MORNING. THERE IS A SURGE OF
MOISTURE THAT WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WAVE NOW ACROSS NRN
MO. THE RAIN SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AND THE CHC OF THUNDER IS QUITE LOW
ONCE AGAIN WITH ELEVATED LI/S ONLY JUST A SHADE BELOW ZERO C.
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE WAVE OF RAIN WED
MORNING MOVES OUT. SLIGHTLY BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES IN
WED...JUSTIFYING THE CHC OF THUNDER AT THAT TIME. WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER HEALTHY SURGE IN MOISTURE MOVE IN LATE WED AFTERNOON AND WED
EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN SURGE WITH THE LLJ THAT WILL BE JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING IN WED NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BRING A GOOD CHC OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING.
WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR MOVE IN FOR THU ALONG WITH COOLER AIR. RAIN
SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z THU. SOME FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPR RIDGE SHOWN TO BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z.
HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT SINCE THE
SFC DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30S DUE TO THE DRY EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. VIRGA/SPRINKLES WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS PRECEDING
THE FRONT STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST
SINCE LITTLE TO NO MU CAPE IS PROGGED. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
IN THE SOUTHEAST CWFA ON SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT
COMPLETELY CLEARS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND
SFC RIDGING BRINGS DECREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOLER SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY.
AFTER DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES
TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. RAIN COVERAGE/AMOUNTS LOOK
LIMITED AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS WILL THE SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT BE HEAVY
ENOUGH TO CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR IN PLACE.
BANDS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE BAND NEAR I-94 WILL MOVE OUT SOON BUT
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER IOWA WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN BY 06Z AND THAT SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
IFR VSBY. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOSTLY IMPACTS THE GRR
AND MKG TAF SITES. THE AIR BELOW 8000 FT REMAINS VERY DRY SO CIGS
SHOULD MOSTLY STAY VFR BUT VSBY MAY WELL GO IFR AT TIMES WHILE
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. ONCE IT MOVES THROUGH... THERE
SHOULD BE A QUIET PERIOD FOR SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT MAY BRING
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BUILD WAVES TO 3 TO 5 FEET
NORTH OF HOLLAND WEDNESDAY. I SAW NO REASON TO WAIT TO ISSUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SINCE APX ALREADY HAS ONE OUT...SO IT IS NOW
IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING NORTH OF HOLLAND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
RIVERS ARE RUNNING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. A STRIPE OF BASIN-AVERAGE
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER A QUARTER INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
NEITHER RAIN EVENT IS ANTICIPATED TO CREATE A FLOOD RISK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR LMZ846>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
749 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BRISK N TO NE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN
ONTARIO HAVE SUPPORTED A PERSISTENT PATCH OF UPSLOPE STRATOCU OVER
BARAGA COUNTY AND THE NW HALF OF MQT COUNTY. WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS SAGGING SOUTH OF MNM COUNTY AND
NRN LAKE MI...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SCNTRL FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL
CANADA TONIGHT...850MB WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF MODELS INDICATES BETTER ISENTROPIC MOIST
ASCENT WL STAY SE OF THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...BEST DEEP LAYER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE NW OF
THE FCST AREA AS NOTED ON 700-300 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS
STILL ARGUES FOR TWO AREAS OF DEVELOPING PCPN TO SPLIT SE AND NW OF
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH MODEL QPF
GUIDANCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY CARRY SCHC POPS TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL BE
MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH 150M 12
HR 5H HEIGHT FALLS FCST BY MODELS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS A DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY
WED EVENING. THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE NORTH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG THE SHORTWAVE TRACK AND
AGAIN THE BETTER MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN SE OF THE FCST
AREA. THIS SPLIT IN FORCING WILL WORK TO KEEP RAIN SHOWERS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AT BEST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONALLY...BEHIND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...MODELS ADVERTISE A RISE/FALL COUPLET WHICH WILL
AID GUSTY W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES DESTABILIZATION AND
MIXING. THIS COULD ALL LEAD TO GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER NW MARQUETTE COUNTY
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
EXITING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM THE W FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CROSSING THE CWA THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A
COUPLE OF INCREASED WIND EVENTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
STEADY SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT E UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
EVENING. PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN OR LESS AT 00Z THURSDAY OVER THE W
HALF...WITH 1IN VALUES EXITING FAR E. NW FLOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE IN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW OVER FAR NE LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z
AND THE DRAGGING COLD FRONT EXITS JUST E OF THE CWA...WITH RAPIDLY
INCREASING WINDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E WITH WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS. BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY THE SFC LOW WILL BE JUST S OF JAMES BAY AND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE E OF LAKE HURON. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY TROUGH WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z
THURSDAY...PROLONGING THE WNW WINDS A BIT LONGER. 850MB TEMPS OF
-1 TO -3C THURSDAY MORNING WITH THESE UPSLOPE/LAKESHORE CONVERGENT
WINDS WILL KEEP LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE SET UP FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH IA AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL
SHIFT TO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE DAY
WITH LIGHTER WINDS TAKING HOLD OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE CWA BY 06Z FRIDAY...THEN EXIT E AS THE 500MB RIDGE SLIDES
OVERHEAD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BEHIND THE
HIGH AS A DEEPENING LOW NEARS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE LOW TO SLIDE ACROSS MN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ACROSS OR JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z SATURDAY. A WIDESPREAD 0.1
TO 0.3IN OF RAIN LOOKS LIKELY...STILL WITH THE BULK OF PRECIP
FALLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OF MOISTURE TO LINGER BEHIND THE LOW...AS THE 500MB TROUGH
SET UP ACROSS MN AT 12Z SATURDAY MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE OVER
BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH POSSIBLY
SHIFTING IN FROM THE NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
KIWD/KCMX...WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
UNCERTAINTY MAINLY EXISTS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXTENT OF
LOWERING CIGS.
KSAW...WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS SE
FLOW PULLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. DO NOT THINK
THAT FOG WILL RESULT AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST...BUT LOW STRATUS SHOULD
FORM. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXTENT OF LOWEST CIGS AND FOG
POTENTIAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
HIGH PRES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NE WINDS IN THE 15-
30KT RANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...STRONGEST OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND
ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TONIGHT/WED
MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES.
THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30KT ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE ON WED. A LOW PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF AND
PASS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAVORABLY
ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE TIP AND IN THE
LEE OF THE KEWEENAW LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WL INCLUDE A GALE
WARNING FOR LSZ264>266 FOR THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW WED
NIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE FRI/SAT AS ANOTHER LOW
PRES TROF SWEEPS THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LSZ264>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
131 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE ERN NAMERICA TROF
THAT DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND IS NOW SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF THE CONUS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT HAS TRACKED E TO HUDSON BAY. SHORTWAVE
IS SUPPORTING A DEEP SFC LOW AROUND 975MB OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE DEEP LOW AND PRES FALLS OF 5-6MB/3HR PASSING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN STEADY S TO SW WINDS WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. WAA AND WINDS HAVE PREVENTED MUCH TEMP
DROP DURING THE NIGHT. EARLY MORNING TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 40F IN
INTERIOR SHELTED LOCATIONS TO AROUND 50F WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
STRONGEST. CLOSE EXAMINATION OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT SOME POCKETS OF ACCAS ARE DEVELOPING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WESTWARD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA.
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS TODAY AS SFC TROF TO THE W APPROACHES AND COLD
FRONT DROPS SE THRU NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS IN
CHECK TODAY...AS WILL INCREASING MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL HELP PREVENT
DEEPER MIXING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL STILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E WHERE GRADIENT SLACKENS LATEST. WITH VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...GENERAL QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HINTS OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...
THERE IS SOME RISK OF -SHRA TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500+J/KG OVER THE FAR SCNTRL THIS
AFTN. THE GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE MORE MODEST...UP TO 200J/KG. IF THE
NAM IS CORRECT...WOULDN`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AN ISOLD
TSTM. A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE HRRR/RAP MODELS IN
CONSTRUCTING POPS FIELDS TODAY AS THOSE MODELS HAVE GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE NCAR ENSEMBLES. THIS RESULTS IN A BAND OF ISOLD -SHRA
POTENTIAL STREAKING INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING...THEN SAGGING S
THRU MID AFTN. ISOLD -SHRA POTENTIAL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SCNTRL
DURING THE AFTN HRS. WITH A MILD START TO THE DAY...OPTED TO RAISE
TEMPS A LITTLE WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 65F BEING THE RULE. IF THERE
HAPPENS TO BE MORE SUN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER.
COLD FRONT WILL DROP S THRU THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITHOUT ANY PCPN
AS FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FRONT IS FCST TO BE WNW...RESULTING IN DRYING
ALOFT PRECEDING THE SFC FROPA. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE
SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA WILL EXIT EARLY IN THE EVENING AND GIVE WAY TO A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FROPA WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN ONTARIO...A SHALLOW BUT
INCREASING NNE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME LOW
CLOUDS...AT LEAST IN THE UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
TOWARD 12Z TUE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE RIDGE...ZONAL TO SLIGHT
UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGING AND DEEP LAYER 1000-500MB DRY AIR WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
SLIDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD FROM ONTARIO ALLOWING NORTH TO EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE TRAPPED BY AN INVERSION AROUND AROUND 2KFT TO 3KFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE PLAINS LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE U.P.
AND CROSS THE U.P. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THE APPROACH OF THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF FORCING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS SHOWN
BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV...THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE HOW THE PLAINS LOW AND THE CANADIAN LOW END UP
PHASING. THE CANADIAN LOW IS NOW PROGGED BY THE EC/GFS TO PHASE WITH
THE PLAINS LOW AS IT SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH THE BETTER INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING AS THEY BECOME IN
SYNC WITH THE FAIRLY POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. IF THE PHASING OCCURS AS IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR FAIRLY GUSTY NW WINDS OVER MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SURFACE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS THE LOW
DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUD FROM THE
WEST...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
IN PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT...BUT IT DOES LOOK AS IF
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING RAINY. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE BROAD
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS USED
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU MAJORITY OF THE
FCST PERIOD AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION IN FCST.
PLUS...IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR...CONDITIONS WON`T FALL BLO VFR. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE
N TO NE WIND BEHIND FRONT MAY RESULT IN SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS ON
TUESDAY MORNING. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS E THIS MORNING AND PRES GRADIENT RELAXES
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM W TO E TODAY. GALE WARNINGS OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...12Z CNTRL AND 15Z E. AFTER A PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NE WITH WINDS RAMPING
UP TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL
FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TUE
NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHES. THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER
THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON WED. AFTER THE TROF PASSES BY LATE
WED...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW...THEN DIMINISH BY LATE THU AS
TRAILING HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. S WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 25KT ON FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE HIGH TO THE
E AND UNDER A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE ERN NAMERICA TROF
THAT DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND IS NOW SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF THE CONUS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT HAS TRACKED E TO HUDSON BAY. SHORTWAVE
IS SUPPORTING A DEEP SFC LOW AROUND 975MB OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE DEEP LOW AND PRES FALLS OF 5-6MB/3HR PASSING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN STEADY S TO SW WINDS WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. WAA AND WINDS HAVE PREVENTED MUCH TEMP
DROP DURING THE NIGHT. EARLY MORNING TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 40F IN
INTERIOR SHELTED LOCATIONS TO AROUND 50F WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
STRONGEST. CLOSE EXAMINATION OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT SOME POCKETS OF ACCAS ARE DEVELOPING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WESTWARD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA.
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS TODAY AS SFC TROF TO THE W APPROACHES AND COLD
FRONT DROPS SE THRU NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS IN
CHECK TODAY...AS WILL INCREASING MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL HELP PREVENT
DEEPER MIXING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL STILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E WHERE GRADIENT SLACKENS LATEST. WITH VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...GENERAL QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HINTS OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...
THERE IS SOME RISK OF -SHRA TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500+J/KG OVER THE FAR SCNTRL THIS
AFTN. THE GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE MORE MODEST...UP TO 200J/KG. IF THE
NAM IS CORRECT...WOULDN`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AN ISOLD
TSTM. A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE HRRR/RAP MODELS IN
CONSTRUCTING POPS FIELDS TODAY AS THOSE MODELS HAVE GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE NCAR ENSEMBLES. THIS RESULTS IN A BAND OF ISOLD -SHRA
POTENTIAL STREAKING INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING...THEN SAGGING S
THRU MID AFTN. ISOLD -SHRA POTENTIAL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SCNTRL
DURING THE AFTN HRS. WITH A MILD START TO THE DAY...OPTED TO RAISE
TEMPS A LITTLE WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 65F BEING THE RULE. IF THERE
HAPPENS TO BE MORE SUN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER.
COLD FRONT WILL DROP S THRU THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITHOUT ANY PCPN
AS FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FRONT IS FCST TO BE WNW...RESULTING IN DRYING
ALOFT PRECEDING THE SFC FROPA. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE
SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA WILL EXIT EARLY IN THE EVENING AND GIVE WAY TO A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FROPA WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN ONTARIO...A SHALLOW BUT
INCREASING NNE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME LOW
CLOUDS...AT LEAST IN THE UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
TOWARD 12Z TUE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE RIDGE...ZONAL TO SLIGHT
UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGING AND DEEP LAYER 1000-500MB DRY AIR WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
SLIDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD FROM ONTARIO ALLOWING NORTH TO EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE TRAPPED BY AN INVERSION AROUND AROUND 2KFT TO 3KFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE PLAINS LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE U.P.
AND CROSS THE U.P. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THE APPROACH OF THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF FORCING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS SHOWN
BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV...THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE HOW THE PLAINS LOW AND THE CANADIAN LOW END UP
PHASING. THE CANADIAN LOW IS NOW PROGGED BY THE EC/GFS TO PHASE WITH
THE PLAINS LOW AS IT SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH THE BETTER INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING AS THEY BECOME IN
SYNC WITH THE FAIRLY POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. IF THE PHASING OCCURS AS IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR FAIRLY GUSTY NW WINDS OVER MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SURFACE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS THE LOW
DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUD FROM THE
WEST...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
IN PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT...BUT IT DOES LOOK AS IF
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING RAINY. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE BROAD
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS USED
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. ONGOING LLWS WILL END IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HRS AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS E AND DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. ISOLD
-SHRA/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN FCST. PLUS...IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR...
CONDITIONS WON`T FALL BLO VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE N TO NE WIND BEHIND FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS BEFORE 12Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS E THIS MORNING AND PRES GRADIENT RELAXES
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM W TO E TODAY. GALE WARNINGS OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...12Z CNTRL AND 15Z E. AFTER A PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NE WITH WINDS RAMPING
UP TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL
FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TUE
NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHES. THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER
THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON WED. AFTER THE TROF PASSES BY LATE
WED...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW...THEN DIMINISH BY LATE THU AS
TRAILING HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. S WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 25KT ON FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE HIGH TO THE
E AND UNDER A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE ERN NAMERICA TROF
THAT DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND IS NOW SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF THE CONUS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT HAS TRACKED E TO HUDSON BAY. SHORTWAVE
IS SUPPORTING A DEEP SFC LOW AROUND 975MB OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE DEEP LOW AND PRES FALLS OF 5-6MB/3HR PASSING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN STEADY S TO SW WINDS WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. WAA AND WINDS HAVE PREVENTED MUCH TEMP
DROP DURING THE NIGHT. EARLY MORNING TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 40F IN
INTERIOR SHELTED LOCATIONS TO AROUND 50F WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
STRONGEST. CLOSE EXAMINATION OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT SOME POCKETS OF ACCAS ARE DEVELOPING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WESTWARD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA.
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS TODAY AS SFC TROF TO THE W APPROACHES AND COLD
FRONT DROPS SE THRU NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS IN
CHECK TODAY...AS WILL INCREASING MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL HELP PREVENT
DEEPER MIXING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL STILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E WHERE GRADIENT SLACKENS LATEST. WITH VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...GENERAL QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HINTS OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...
THERE IS SOME RISK OF -SHRA TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500+J/KG OVER THE FAR SCNTRL THIS
AFTN. THE GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE MORE MODEST...UP TO 200J/KG. IF THE
NAM IS CORRECT...WOULDN`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AN ISOLD
TSTM. A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE HRRR/RAP MODELS IN
CONSTRUCTING POPS FIELDS TODAY AS THOSE MODELS HAVE GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE NCAR ENSEMBLES. THIS RESULTS IN A BAND OF ISOLD -SHRA
POTENTIAL STREAKING INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING...THEN SAGGING S
THRU MID AFTN. ISOLD -SHRA POTENTIAL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SCNTRL
DURING THE AFTN HRS. WITH A MILD START TO THE DAY...OPTED TO RAISE
TEMPS A LITTLE WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 65F BEING THE RULE. IF THERE
HAPPENS TO BE MORE SUN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER.
COLD FRONT WILL DROP S THRU THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITHOUT ANY PCPN
AS FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FRONT IS FCST TO BE WNW...RESULTING IN DRYING
ALOFT PRECEDING THE SFC FROPA. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE
SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA WILL EXIT EARLY IN THE EVENING AND GIVE WAY TO A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FROPA WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN ONTARIO...A SHALLOW BUT
INCREASING NNE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME LOW
CLOUDS...AT LEAST IN THE UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
TOWARD 12Z TUE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE RIDGE...ZONAL TO SLIGHT
UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGING AND DEEP LAYER 1000-500MB DRY AIR WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
SLIDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD FROM ONTARIO ALLOWING NORTH TO EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE TRAPPED BY AN INVERSION AROUND AROUND 2KFT TO 3KFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE PLAINS LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE U.P.
AND CROSS THE U.P. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THE APPROACH OF THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF FORCING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS SHOWN
BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV...THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE HOW THE PLAINS LOW AND THE CANADIAN LOW END UP
PHASING. THE CANADIAN LOW IS NOW PROGGED BY THE EC/GFS TO PHASE WITH
THE PLAINS LOW AS IT SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH THE BETTER INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING AS THEY BECOME IN
SYNC WITH THE FAIRLY POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. IF THE PHASING OCCURS AS IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR FAIRLY GUSTY NW WINDS OVER MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SURFACE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS THE LOW
DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUD FROM THE
WEST...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
IN PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT...BUT IT DOES LOOK AS IF
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING RAINY. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE BROAD
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS USED
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. LLWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH LATEST KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 45KT AT 500FT AGL. LLWS
END AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS E AND PRES
GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. WHILE THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES TODAY AHEAD
OF FEATURE...POTENTIAL IS MUCH TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION IN FCST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS E THIS MORNING AND PRES GRADIENT RELAXES
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM W TO E TODAY. GALE WARNINGS OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...12Z CNTRL AND 15Z E. AFTER A PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NE WITH WINDS RAMPING
UP TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL
FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TUE
NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHES. THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER
THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON WED. AFTER THE TROF PASSES BY LATE
WED...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW...THEN DIMINISH BY LATE THU AS
TRAILING HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. S WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 25KT ON FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE HIGH TO THE
E AND UNDER A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...RJT/ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
A SFC LOW WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AT 07Z WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING INTO EASTERN ND. A SECOND...WEAKER SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN
NORTH CENTRAL SD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INTO CENTRAL ND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WAS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS LOOSENING WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME CIRRUS WAS FLOATING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WAS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS NEAR 30F. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO GENERATE A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS BY 11Z AND TAKING IT FROM
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 169 CORRIDOR IN NE MN THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z.
HOWEVER...A CHECK OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN DRY BELOW 14K FT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO TRYING TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS WHICH IS IN CONFLICT WITH ITS OWN SOUNDINGS.
HAVE REMOVED THE RAIN MENTION FOR TODAY.
THE SFC LOW OVER NW ONTARIO MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND DRAGS THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
THE PLACE OF THE LOW AND PARKS ITSELF IN NW ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. A COLD NE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT. WILL SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE COLD AIR MIXES
WITH THE RESIDUAL WARM AIR OVER LAND FROM DAYTIME HEATING.
MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE HANDLING OF PCPN ON TUESDAY. THE SFC HIGH
REMAINS OVER NW ONTARIO WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
ARROWHEAD THROUGH NW WI. THE ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP SHOWERS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM/NAM12/ARW/NMM ARE ALL DRY
IN THIS AREA. USED A BLENDED APPROACH THAT PRODUCED A RAIN FREE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON HAVING NO RAIN. THE COLD NE FLOW
CONTINUES OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
SUMMARY...THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY WILL
COME FRIDAY. COLDER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE
DAKOTAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO MANITOBA AND/OR NW ONTARIO BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. ITS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. THE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW...AS WELL
AS THE TIMING OF THE RAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT LOW TRACKS...BUT THEY ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE PCPN AS FAR AS THE NORTHLAND IS CONCERNED. THE
GEM...HOWEVER...IS MUCH SLOWER IN TIMING THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BOTH FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND FOR THE TIMING OF
THE RAIN. LEANED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY GET COLDER INTO SUNDAY.
THERE COULD BE LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WILL USHER IN
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TONIGHT AT AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND INCREASE IN
SPEEDS BY 14Z. EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO DULUTH FROM
THE LAKE BY 13Z WITH AN INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 63 43 50 40 / 10 0 10 40
INL 63 36 51 35 / 0 0 10 60
BRD 67 43 59 43 / 10 0 10 30
HYR 66 43 59 45 / 10 0 10 30
ASX 65 41 53 41 / 10 0 10 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
632 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
A SFC LOW WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AT 07Z WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING INTO EASTERN ND. A SECOND...WEAKER SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN
NORTH CENTRAL SD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INTO CENTRAL ND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WAS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS LOOSENING WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME CIRRUS WAS FLOATING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WAS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS NEAR 30F. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO GENERATE A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS BY 11Z AND TAKING IT FROM
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 169 CORRIDOR IN NE MN THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z.
HOWEVER...A CHECK OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN DRY BELOW 14K FT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO TRYING TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS WHICH IS IN CONFLICT WITH ITS OWN SOUNDINGS.
HAVE REMOVED THE RAIN MENTION FOR TODAY.
THE SFC LOW OVER NW ONTARIO MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND DRAGS THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
THE PLACE OF THE LOW AND PARKS ITSELF IN NW ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. A COLD NE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT. WILL SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE COLD AIR MIXES
WITH THE RESIDUAL WARM AIR OVER LAND FROM DAYTIME HEATING.
MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE HANDLING OF PCPN ON TUESDAY. THE SFC HIGH
REMAINS OVER NW ONTARIO WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
ARROWHEAD THROUGH NW WI. THE ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP SHOWERS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM/NAM12/ARW/NMM ARE ALL DRY
IN THIS AREA. USED A BLENDED APPROACH THAT PRODUCED A RAIN FREE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON HAVING NO RAIN. THE COLD NE FLOW
CONTINUES OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
SUMMARY...THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY WILL
COME FRIDAY. COLDER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE
DAKOTAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO MANITOBA AND/OR NW ONTARIO BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. ITS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. THE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW...AS WELL
AS THE TIMING OF THE RAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT LOW TRACKS...BUT THEY ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE PCPN AS FAR AS THE NORTHLAND IS CONCERNED. THE
GEM...HOWEVER...IS MUCH SLOWER IN TIMING THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BOTH FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND FOR THE TIMING OF
THE RAIN. LEANED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY GET COLDER INTO SUNDAY.
THERE COULD BE LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO
NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BECOME ENE TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONG LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDLH BY DAWN. IT IS POSSIBLE
THE MORE HUMID FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUD
COVER AT KDLH AROUND OR AFTER DAWN...BUT DO NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 63 43 50 40 / 10 0 10 40
INL 63 36 51 35 / 0 0 10 60
BRD 67 43 59 43 / 10 0 10 30
HYR 66 43 59 45 / 10 0 10 30
ASX 65 41 53 41 / 10 0 10 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
A SFC LOW WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AT 07Z WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING INTO EASTERN ND. A SECOND...WEAKER SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN
NORTH CENTRAL SD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INTO CENTRAL ND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WAS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS LOOSENING WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME CIRRUS WAS FLOATING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WAS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS NEAR 30F. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO GENERATE A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS BY 11Z AND TAKING IT FROM
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 169 CORRIDOR IN NE MN THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z.
HOWEVER...A CHECK OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN DRY BELOW 14K FT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO TRYING TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS WHICH IS IN CONFLICT WITH ITS OWN SOUNDINGS.
HAVE REMOVED THE RAIN MENTION FOR TODAY.
THE SFC LOW OVER NW ONTARIO MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND DRAGS THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
THE PLACE OF THE LOW AND PARKS ITSELF IN NW ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. A COLD NE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT. WILL SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE COLD AIR MIXES
WITH THE RESIDUAL WARM AIR OVER LAND FROM DAYTIME HEATING.
MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE HANDLING OF PCPN ON TUESDAY. THE SFC HIGH
REMAINS OVER NW ONTARIO WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
ARROWHEAD THROUGH NW WI. THE ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP SHOWERS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM/NAM12/ARW/NMM ARE ALL DRY
IN THIS AREA. USED A BLENDED APPROACH THAT PRODUCED A RAIN FREE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON HAVING NO RAIN. THE COLD NE FLOW
CONTINUES OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
SUMMARY...THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY WILL
COME FRIDAY. COLDER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE
DAKOTAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO MANITOBA AND/OR NW ONTARIO BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. ITS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. THE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW...AS WELL
AS THE TIMING OF THE RAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT LOW TRACKS...BUT THEY ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE PCPN AS FAR AS THE NORTHLAND IS CONCERNED. THE
GEM...HOWEVER...IS MUCH SLOWER IN TIMING THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BOTH FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND FOR THE TIMING OF
THE RAIN. LEANED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY GET COLDER INTO SUNDAY.
THERE COULD BE LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS
OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS AS THE BACKSIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET OF 40-50 KTS.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS MONDAY AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND... BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE REMAINS VERY
LIMITED... SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 63 43 50 40 / 10 0 10 40
INL 63 36 51 35 / 0 0 10 60
BRD 67 43 59 43 / 10 0 10 30
HYR 66 43 59 45 / 10 0 10 30
ASX 65 41 53 41 / 10 0 10 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ140.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MCLOVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
927 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC. THE OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT WAS
JUST APPROACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA TO QUICKLY END AS THE WEAKENING VORT MAX
ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
AS OF 2330 UTC...THE OCCLUDING FRONT WAS PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
THE US HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND STRATUS IN
TRAIL. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA THIS EVENING IN ACCORDANCE WITH
RADAR TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE HRRR THROUGH ITS 22
UTC ITERATION
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED OVER NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SEPARATES.
TONIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE STATE...SPREADING SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS EXIT...DECENT
SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS...AIDED BY AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT SHOULD
SUPPORT GUST WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH EAST...AND
LIGHT WINDS WEST WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
AFTER LOWS TONIGHT OF 35 NORTHWEST TO 45 SOUTHEAST...EXPECT HIGHS
WEDNESDAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE LONG TERM IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
A COLORADO LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AHEAD OF
THE LOW THURSDAY EVENING. THE 12 UTC GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALL HAVE THE
CENTER TRAVERSING THE ND/SD BORDER BY FRIDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP DEFORMATION BANDED PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY PROPAGATE OFF TO THE EAST
AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. TOTAL LIQUID ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY
TRANSITION SOME RAIN TO SNOW. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S DURING THE DAY AND 20S/30S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IN STRATUS
BEHIND AN OCCLUDING FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AREA
WIDE BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PENDLETON OR
1038 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...PATCHY FOG WAS LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN/KITTITAS VALLEY WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEVADA WAS SPINNING MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO
OUR BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO WA/OR
AND SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
TODAY. ELSEWHERE SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. OTHER THAN A FEW
MODIFICATIONS TO AFTN TEMPS AND POPS...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...HOWEVER MVR CIGS AROUND 2-3KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF
SITES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AND AMEND SITES AS NEEDED. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 5-10KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. VCSH POSSIBLE AT KPDT THIS AFTERNOON. WEBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS SITTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BORDER THIS
MORNING. THIS IS PUSHING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO UNION AND WALLOWA
COUNTIES AS SHOWN IN THE RADAR. THE HRRR MODEL IS ACCURATELY
PREDICTING THIS PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS THERE FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY TO THE EAST. THEN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TODAY AND
TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE MAY
BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY THIS MORNING DUE TO
CLEARING SKIES AND TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE. SO FAR
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN TO 10 PLUS MILES DURING THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. 88
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS OFF WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE UNDER A
TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WHICH SHOULD MEAN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER. THERE MAY BE A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT TIMES
DURING THIS PERIOD AS MOST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DESPITE THE RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
THIS INVERSION IS QUITE TYPICAL FOR THE REGION HEADING INTO THE LAST
WEEK OF OCTOBER AND BEYOND. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD ALSO BE QUITE
CHILLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND
30S AREA WIDE. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LATEST GFS BRINGS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE
EUROPEAN/CANADIAN HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH WITH
LESS PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID
50S MOUNTAINS. 77
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 65 47 64 43 / 20 20 10 0
ALW 66 51 66 47 / 20 20 10 0
PSC 71 47 68 43 / 10 10 10 0
YKM 71 43 71 42 / 20 10 10 0
HRI 69 46 67 42 / 10 10 10 0
ELN 67 39 66 37 / 20 10 10 0
RDM 60 31 61 31 / 20 20 10 0
LGD 61 43 62 39 / 60 20 10 0
GCD 64 40 62 35 / 20 20 10 0
DLS 68 50 69 48 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
97/77/89
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
839 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...PATCHY FOG WAS LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN/KITTITAS VALLEY WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEVADA WAS SPINNING MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO
OUR BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO WA/OR
AND SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
TODAY. ELSEWHERE SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. OTHER THAN A FEW
MODIFICATIONS TO AFTN TEMPS AND POPS...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS SITTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BORDER THIS
MORNING. THIS IS PUSHING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO UNION AND WALLOWA
COUNTIES AS SHOWN IN THE RADAR. THE HRRR MODEL IS ACCURATELY
PREDICTING THIS PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS THERE FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY TO THE EAST. THEN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TODAY AND
TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE MAY
BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY THIS MORNING DUE TO
CLEARING SKIES AND TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE. SO FAR
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN TO 10 PLUS MILES DURING THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. 88
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS OFF WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE UNDER A
TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WHICH SHOULD MEAN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER. THERE MAY BE A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT TIMES
DURING THIS PERIOD AS MOST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DESPITE THE RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
THIS INVERSION IS QUITE TYPICAL FOR THE REGION HEADING INTO THE LAST
WEEK OF OCTOBER AND BEYOND. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD ALSO BE QUITE
CHILLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND
30S AREA WIDE. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LATEST GFS BRINGS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE
EUROPEAN/CANADIAN HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH WITH
LESS PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID
50S MOUNTAINS. 77
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EARLY
IN THIS MORNING AT KRDM AND KBDN....IF SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS GO
CALM FOR A TIME SOME PATCHY THICKER FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP HERE NEAR
DAYBREAK. LIFR FOG IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT THE PRINEVILLE
AIRPORT EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK MAY RESULT IN SOME VFR MIST AT KYKM. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE CIGS BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT AGL AT KPDT, KALW
AND KPSC THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF KALW AND KPDT. A BKN CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 8000 TO
10000 FT AGL IS ADVECTING OVER KDLS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS WILL MENTION VICINITY SHOWERS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT KYKM. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WINDS BETWEEN 10-
20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS. 77
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 65 47 64 43 / 20 20 10 0
ALW 66 51 66 47 / 20 20 10 0
PSC 71 47 68 43 / 10 10 10 0
YKM 71 43 71 42 / 20 10 10 0
HRI 69 46 67 42 / 10 10 10 0
ELN 67 39 66 37 / 20 10 10 0
RDM 60 31 61 31 / 20 20 10 0
LGD 61 43 62 39 / 60 20 10 0
GCD 64 40 62 35 / 20 20 10 0
DLS 68 50 69 48 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
97/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PENDLETON OR
440 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS SITTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BORDER THIS
MORNING. THIS IS PUSHING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO UNION AND WALLOWA
COUNTIES AS SHOWN IN THE RADAR. THE HRRR MODEL IS ACCURATELY
PREDICTING THIS PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS THERE FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY TO THE EAST. THEN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TODAY AND
TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE MAY
BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY THIS MORNING DUE TO
CLEARING SKIES AND TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE. SO FAR
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN TO 10 PLUS MILES DURING THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. 88
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS OFF WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE UNDER A
TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WHICH SHOULD MEAN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER. THERE MAY BE A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT TIMES
DURING THIS PERIOD AS MOST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DESPITE THE RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
THIS INVERSION IS QUITE TYPICAL FOR THE REGION HEADING INTO THE LAST
WEEK OF OCTOBER AND BEYOND. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD ALSO BE QUITE
CHILLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND
30S AREA WIDE. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LATEST GFS BRINGS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE
EUROPEAN/CANADIAN HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH WITH
LESS PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID
50S MOUNTAINS. 77
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EARLY
IN THIS MORNING AT KRDM AND KBDN....IF SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS GO
CALM FOR A TIME SOME PATCHY THICKER FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP HERE NEAR
DAYBREAK. LIFR FOG IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT THE PRINEVILLE
AIRPORT EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK MAY RESULT IN SOME VFR MIST AT KYKM. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE CIGS BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT AGL AT KPDT, KALW
AND KPSC THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF KALW AND KPDT. A BKN CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 8000 TO
10000 FT AGL IS ADVECTING OVER KDLS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS WILL MENTION VICINITY SHOWERS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT KYKM. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WINDS BETWEEN 10-
20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS. 77
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 65 47 64 43 / 20 20 10 0
ALW 66 51 66 47 / 20 20 10 0
PSC 71 47 68 43 / 10 10 10 0
YKM 71 43 71 42 / 20 10 10 0
HRI 69 46 67 42 / 10 10 10 0
ELN 67 39 66 37 / 20 10 10 0
RDM 60 31 61 31 / 20 20 10 0
LGD 61 43 62 39 / 30 20 10 0
GCD 64 40 62 35 / 20 20 10 0
DLS 68 50 69 48 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
88/77/77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS SITTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BORDER THIS
MORNING. THIS IS PUSHING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO UNION AND WALLOWA
COUNTIES AS SHOWN IN THE RADAR. THE HRRR MODEL IS ACCURATELY
PREDICTING THIS PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS THERE FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY TO THE EAST. THEN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TODAY AND
TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE MAY
BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY THIS MORNING DUE TO
CLEARING SKIES AND TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE. SO FAR
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN TO 10 PLUS MILES DURING THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. 88
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS OFF WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE UNDER A
TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WHICH SHOULD MEAN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER. THERE MAY BE A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT TIMES
DURING THIS PERIOD AS MOST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DESPITE THE RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
THIS INVERSION IS QUITE TYPICAL FOR THE REGION HEADING INTO THE LAST
WEEK OF OCTOBER AND BEYOND. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD ALSO BE QUITE
CHILLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND
30S AREA WIDE. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LATEST GFS BRINGS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE
EUROPEAN/CANADIAN HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH WITH
LESS PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID
50S MOUNTAINS. 77
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND/OR VIS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EARLY
IN THIS PERIOD AT KRDM AND KBDN UNTIL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DOWN SLOPE
WINDS ARE ESTABLISHED. ALSO LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK MAY RESULT IN SOME MIST AT KYKM. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CAUSE CIGS BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT AGL AT KPDT, KALW AND KPSC AFTER
09 UTC WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KALW AND
KPDT. SIMILAR CLOUDS MAY ADVECT OVER KDLS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS WILL MENTION VICINITY SHOWERS AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT KPSC AND KYKM. 90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 65 47 64 43 / 20 20 10 0
ALW 66 51 66 47 / 20 20 10 0
PSC 71 47 68 43 / 10 10 10 0
YKM 71 43 71 42 / 20 10 10 0
HRI 69 46 67 42 / 10 10 10 0
ELN 67 39 66 37 / 20 10 10 0
RDM 60 31 61 31 / 20 20 10 0
LGD 61 43 62 39 / 30 20 10 0
GCD 64 40 62 35 / 20 20 10 0
DLS 68 50 69 48 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
88/77/77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1216 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
SUNNY SKIES WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5
TO 15 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE SISSETON HILLS
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PEEVER GUSTING SOLIDLY BETWEEN 45 AND
50 MPH THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. SISSETON JOINING IN ON THE GUSTS TOO
BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG. RAP 925MB WINDS DID PEAK AROUND 45 KNOTS A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...BUT SHOW A QUICK DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY
AROUND 10Z OR 11Z SO EXPECT THE WINDS IN PEEVER AND SISSETON TO
SUBSIDE BEFORE SUNRISE. STILL VERY MILD ALOFT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
IN PLACE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME
INCREDIBLY MILD TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SISSETON IS CURRENTLY 66 DEGREES WHICH IS RATHER REMARKABLE AT 3AM
IN THE LATTER HALF OF OCTOBER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MBG HAVING RECENTLY TURNED TO A NORTHERLY
WIND. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING BUT NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF COOL AIR BEHIND THIS IT AT ALL. IN FACT...HIGHS TODAY
WERE INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH MANY AREAS IN THE 70S.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND MODELS HAVE CUT BACK ON QPF WITH MOST MODELS ACTUALLY
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS
ACCORDINGLY...BUT WHAT THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH IS POTENTIALLY A
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS WESTERN SD AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SD LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.
COOLER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS DEPARTING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHS ARE
LIKELY ONLY TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLATED TO COME
THROUGH THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SFC LOW WILL BE REINFORCED BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING
EAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GFS NOW SHOWS A GULF MOISTURE FEED
AT THE SFC...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL REMAINS OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS
WHICH COULD MEAN HIGHER QPF VALUES AS WELL. FOR NOW QPF OUTPUT
INDICATES 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SCARLETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1025 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
SUNNY SKIES WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5
TO 15 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE SISSETON HILLS
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PEEVER GUSTING SOLIDLY BETWEEN 45 AND
50 MPH THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. SISSETON JOINING IN ON THE GUSTS TOO
BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG. RAP 925MB WINDS DID PEAK AROUND 45 KNOTS A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...BUT SHOW A QUICK DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY
AROUND 10Z OR 11Z SO EXPECT THE WINDS IN PEEVER AND SISSETON TO
SUBSIDE BEFORE SUNRISE. STILL VERY MILD ALOFT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
IN PLACE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME
INCREDIBLY MILD TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SISSETON IS CURRENTLY 66 DEGREES WHICH IS RATHER REMARKABLE AT 3AM
IN THE LATTER HALF OF OCTOBER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MBG HAVING RECENTLY TURNED TO A NORTHERLY
WIND. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING BUT NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF COOL AIR BEHIND THIS IT AT ALL. IN FACT...HIGHS TODAY
WERE INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH MANY AREAS IN THE 70S.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND MODELS HAVE CUT BACK ON QPF WITH MOST MODELS ACTUALLY
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS
ACCORDINGLY...BUT WHAT THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH IS POTENTIALLY A
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS WESTERN SD AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SD LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.
COOLER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS DEPARTING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHS ARE
LIKELY ONLY TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLATED TO COME
THROUGH THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SFC LOW WILL BE REINFORCED BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING
EAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GFS NOW SHOWS A GULF MOISTURE FEED
AT THE SFC...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL REMAINS OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS
WHICH COULD MEAN HIGHER QPF VALUES AS WELL. FOR NOW QPF OUTPUT
INDICATES 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
629 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE SISSETON HILLS
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PEEVER GUSTING SOLIDLY BETWEEN 45 AND
50 MPH THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. SISSETON JOINING IN ON THE GUSTS TOO
BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG. RAP 925MB WINDS DID PEAK AROUND 45 KNOTS A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...BUT SHOW A QUICK DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY
AROUND 10Z OR 11Z SO EXPECT THE WINDS IN PEEVER AND SISSETON TO
SUBSIDE BEFORE SUNRISE. STILL VERY MILD ALOFT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
IN PLACE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME
INCREDIBLY MILD TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SISSETON IS CURRENTLY 66 DEGREES WHICH IS RATHER REMARKABLE AT 3AM
IN THE LATTER HALF OF OCTOBER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MBG HAVING RECENTLY TURNED TO A NORTHERLY
WIND. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING BUT NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF COOL AIR BEHIND THIS IT AT ALL. IN FACT...HIGHS TODAY
WERE INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH MANY AREAS IN THE 70S.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND MODELS HAVE CUT BACK ON QPF WITH MOST MODELS ACTUALLY
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS
ACCORDINGLY...BUT WHAT THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH IS POTENTIALLY A
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS WESTERN SD AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SD LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.
COOLER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS DEPARTING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHS ARE
LIKELY ONLY TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLATED TO COME
THROUGH THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SFC LOW WILL BE REINFORCED BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING
EAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GFS NOW SHOWS A GULF MOISTURE FEED
AT THE SFC...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL REMAINS OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS
WHICH COULD MEAN HIGHER QPF VALUES AS WELL. FOR NOW QPF OUTPUT
INDICATES 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE SISSETON HILLS
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PEEVER GUSTING SOLIDLY BETWEEN 45 AND
50 MPH THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. SISSETON JOINING IN ON THE GUSTS TOO
BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG. RAP 925MB WINDS DID PEAK AROUND 45 KNOTS A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...BUT SHOW A QUICK DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY
AROUND 10Z OR 11Z SO EXPECT THE WINDS IN PEEVER AND SISSETON TO
SUBSIDE BEFORE SUNRISE. STILL VERY MILD ALOFT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
IN PLACE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME
INCREDIBLY MILD TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SISSETON IS CURRENTLY 66 DEGREES WHICH IS RATHER REMARKABLE AT 3AM
IN THE LATTER HALF OF OCTOBER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MBG HAVING RECENTLY TURNED TO A NORTHERLY
WIND. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING BUT NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF COOL AIR BEHIND THIS IT AT ALL. IN FACT...HIGHS TODAY
WERE INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH MANY AREAS IN THE 70S.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND MODELS HAVE CUT BACK ON QPF WITH MOST MODELS ACTUALLY
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS
ACCORDINGLY...BUT WHAT THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH IS POTENTIALLY A
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS WESTERN SD AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SD LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.
COOLER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS DEPARTING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHS ARE
LIKELY ONLY TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLATED TO COME
THROUGH THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SFC LOW WILL BE REINFORCED BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING
EAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GFS NOW SHOWS A GULF MOISTURE FEED
AT THE SFC...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL REMAINS OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS
WHICH COULD MEAN HIGHER QPF VALUES AS WELL. FOR NOW QPF OUTPUT
INDICATES 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
852 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
RATHER DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING JUST OVER AN
INCH ARE COMBINING WITH THAT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROLLING THROUGH
AND FAVORABLE LOW TO UPPER LEVEL JET INTERACTIONS PRODUCING DEEP
UVV OVER SRN WI AND NRN IL. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM ABOUT KENOSHA...NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH
WAUKESHA...JUNEAU TO VOLK FIELD. ITS GETTING SOME HELP FROM THE
COOLER LAKE TEMPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
STATELINE COUNTIES WITH ILLINOIS...CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE
DYNAMICS. AS THAT PEELS OFF TO THE EAST IT SHOULD TAKE MOST OF THE
RAIN WITH IT. THE HRRR SUGGESTS IT WILL END IN THE EAST BY 08-09Z
TONIGHT. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WED
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS KEEPING US DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DESPITE THE
TRAILING CDFNT/TROF MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LET
THE NEXT SHIFT WORK ON THAT AFTER ALL THE GUIDANCE COMES IN
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSING BY SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR THE SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TAF
SITES BY AROUND 06-08Z WED.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST
BELOW CRITERIA FOR WIND AND WAVES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
623 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF ILLINOIS. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS OCCURRING SOUTH AND EAST OF A FRONT THAT STRETCH ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO MINNESOTA AND AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WORKING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE TREND IN
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS BEEN TO CONTINUE TO BRING THE
ACTIVITY OVER IOWA TO THE NORTHEAST AND JOINING UP WITH THE
DEVELOPING ACTIVITY OVER ILLINOIS. THE 20.17Z RUN OF THE HRRR
INDICATES THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH BUT THAT
THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS COULD GET BRUSHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY FORCING FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT
SOMETHING POPPING UP ALONG THE FRONT...SO WILL CARRY SOME SMALL
RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE AND START TO MOVE UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM OPENS UP AND STARTS TO
EJECT TOWARD THE AREA. THE 20.12Z GFS IS THE QUICKEST TO START
BRINGING SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA AND WOULD INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN ALREADY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 20.12Z
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THIS PROCESS AND HOLDS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
BACK INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THAT THE MODELS HAVE A BIAS OF BEING TOO QUICK TO EJECT OUT SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SLOWER MODEL TRENDS
AND WILL START TO BRING THE RAIN CHANCES IN FRIDAY. THE GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH PAST THE AREA
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. WITH THIS TRACK...BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG PV ADVECTION
IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD OCCUR WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE CONCERN WITH THIS IS WHETHER THE AXIS OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA TO GET AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AS THE GFS SUGGESTS OR IF THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
BRANCHES WITH ONE TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER INTO THE AREA LIKE THE
ECMWF. EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GOOD CONVERGENCE
OVER THE AREA ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AXIS AS THIS MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS TO THE EAST AS WELL. SOME LINGERING
CHANCE FOR RAIN INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
SECTIONS.
THE FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO HAVING A SLIGHT
NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO IT. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SEVERAL
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
AND COULD START TO COME ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THESE CERTAINLY
DO NOT LOOK LIKE BIG PRECIPITATION MAKERS AT THIS POINT BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW TO
MIX IN LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SURFACE WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AS OF
20.23Z WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. DEPTH OF
HIGHER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGES. CLOUDS WILL PRIMARILY BE OF THE CIRRUS VARIETY...
ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER VFR CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT AT TAF AIRFIELDS WILL
BE A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT TO THE
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN FINALLY TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHEN SOME
GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1033 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
APPALACHIANSAND LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. 14Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM MILWAUKEE INDICATES
WINDS OF 45 KTS AT 2000FT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS WITH
AFTERNOON MIXING. HIGHS ON TRACK TO BE NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
14Z TAMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF MILWAUKEE INDICATES WINDS OF 45 KTS AT
2000FT. WITH AFTERNOON MIXING COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS
AND MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE THIS MORNING IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT SOUTHWARD TO WINTHROP HARBOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...SHOULD SEE PERSISTENT GUSTS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE TODAY.
SPM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BUMPED UP WINDS AND GUSTS A FEW KNOTS FOR TODAY. MIN RH VALUES
STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL WITH THE
WINDS INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. THIS PUTS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE WIND MAX AND RESULTS IN WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE MAIN JET
IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.
700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE RH AT 700 MB INCREASES LATE AFTERNOON...NEARLY
SATURATING BY MIDNIGHT. THE RH DOES SATURATE JUST TO THE EAST OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE DRY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WOULD INDICATE VIRGA POTENTIAL INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE GROUND MAINLY EAST TONIGHT.
THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS TODAY AND DIMINISH
TONIGHT. 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DOES COOL BRIEFLY LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY DUE
IN PART TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INTO NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD EVENING...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
EXCEPT FAR SOUTH TONIGHT. THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE ON THE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. PREFER THE DRIER MESO MODELS.
MAIN CONCERN IS THE SURFACE WINDS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.
THE INVERSION IS INITIALLY KEEPING THE STRONGER WINDS AT BAY. MESO
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN MIXING DOWN THE STRONGER
WINDS...WITH A RATHER CHAOTIC WIND STRUCTURE. WILL GO MAINLY WITH
THE CONSENSUS WIND SPEED/GUSTS.
EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT NORTH AREAS TOWARD
EVENING WITH A WEAK TROUGH SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THEY KEEP THE WARM FRONT WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH AN
ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT
LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM REMAINS
NORTH OF THE AREA.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
ABOVE 850 MB TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT
WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED STEADY INCREASE IN POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED HIGHER POPS IN
LATER FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IF WET LOOK IN MODELS
CONTINUES.
THERE ARE HINTS OF WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TUESDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER MENTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS STRONG WEDNESDAY...THOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR...SO
ELEVATED CAPE MAY NOT BE REALIZED WITH FRONT.
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. CLOUDS TUESDAY MAY
LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTH AND WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING MORE SIMILAR TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. THEY BOTH HAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY...THEN EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500
MB BUILDS INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THESE FEATURES
SHOULD BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL
500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL DURING THIS
TIME. HIGH END CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...THOUGH MAY NEED TO
BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS IF TIMING AGREEMENT REMAINS IN LATER
MODEL RUNS. MILD TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE DURING THIS TIME.
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL END AS WINDS MIX TO THE
SURFACE...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING IN AREAS NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD SAG A LITTLE SOUTH
TONIGHT...BUT STILL MAINLY VFR.
MARINE...
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING.
SHOULD SEE PERSISTENT GUSTS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
MILDER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE TO CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WATCH OR WARNING
WITH FUEL LEVELS...TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES FALLING JUST SHORT
OF WARNING CRITERIA.
RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER TUESDAY...ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ645-646.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643-644.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL WITH THE
WINDS INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. THIS PUTS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE WIND MAX AND RESULTS IN WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE MAIN JET
IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.
700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE RH AT 700 MB INCREASES LATE AFTERNOON...NEARLY
SATURATING BY MIDNIGHT. THE RH DOES SATURATE JUST TO THE EAST OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE DRY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WOULD INDICATE VIRGA POTENTIAL INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE GROUND MAINLY EAST TONIGHT.
THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS TODAY AND DIMINISH
TONIGHT. 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DOES COOL BRIEFLY LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY DUE
IN PART TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INTO NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD EVENING...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
EXCEPT FAR SOUTH TONIGHT. THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE ON THE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. PREFER THE DRIER MESO MODELS.
MAIN CONCERN IS THE SURFACE WINDS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.
THE INVERSION IS INITIALLY KEEPING THE STRONGER WINDS AT BAY. MESO
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN MIXING DOWN THE STRONGER
WINDS...WITH A RATHER CHAOTIC WIND STRUCTURE. WILL GO MAINLY WITH
THE CONSENSUS WIND SPEED/GUSTS.
EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT NORTH AREAS TOWARD
EVENING WITH A WEAK TROUGH SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH.
.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THEY KEEP THE WARM FRONT WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH AN
ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT
LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM REMAINS
NORTH OF THE AREA.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
ABOVE 850 MB TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT
WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED STEADY INCREASE IN POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED HIGHER POPS IN
LATER FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IF WET LOOK IN MODELS
CONTINUES.
THERE ARE HINTS OF WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TUESDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER MENTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS STRONG WEDNESDAY...THOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR...SO
ELEVATED CAPE MAY NOT BE REALIZED WITH FRONT.
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. CLOUDS TUESDAY MAY
LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTH AND WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING MORE SIMILAR TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. THEY BOTH HAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY...THEN EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500
MB BUILDS INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THESE FEATURES
SHOULD BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL
500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL DURING THIS
TIME. HIGH END CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...THOUGH MAY NEED TO
BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS IF TIMING AGREEMENT REMAINS IN LATER
MODEL RUNS. MILD TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE DURING THIS TIME.
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL END AS WINDS MIX TO THE
SURFACE...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING IN AREAS NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD SAG A LITTLE SOUTH
TONIGHT...BUT STILL MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING.
SHOULD SEE PERSISTENT GUSTS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MILDER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE TO CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WATCH OR WARNING
WITH FUEL LEVELS...TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES FALLING JUST SHORT
OF WARNING CRITERIA.
RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER TUESDAY...ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643-644.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
938 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS LARAMIE COUNTY SINCE AROUND
SUNSET AS DEEP LLVL NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE POST-FRONTAL FLOW HAS
SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN HAD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
CHEYENNE PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ALONG WITH SOME
PEA- SIZED HAIL. EARLIER IN THE EVENING EXPANDED THIS AREA OF
PRECIP FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. LATEST MODEL DATA KICKS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE DESERT SW UPPER LOW NORTH THRU CO AND INTO
THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
OF A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL RATES FROM MIDNIGHT THRU SUNRISE...
EXPECT ADDL PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER COUPLE OF TENTHS OF RAIN SHOULD BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE OTHER CONCERN LATER TONIGHT WILL
BE FOG POTENTIAL OVR THE I80 SUMMIT AS RAIN WANES LATER TONIGHT.
LATEST HRRR DOES SUGGEST THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TOWARDS
SUNRISE. OF COURSE...THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER THAT
EARLY MORNING PRECIP BREAK MATERIALIZES. DID ADD FOG MENTION TO
AREAS ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE SNOWY AND LARAMIE RANGES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MIX DOWN TO BETWEEN
7000-8000 FEET LATER TONIGHT AS WELL. ALTHOUGH...RATES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO CARRY MUCH IF ANY IMPACT TO HIER
ELEVATION ROADWAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.LONG TERM...(TUESADY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING
AT COOL CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A QUICK NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT. MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS WAVE WILL REMAIN IN THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WHERE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND YIELDING WESTERLY FLOW AND
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. RELATIVELY COOL UNSTABLE LOW
LEVELS MAY ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BUT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
A PERIOD OF POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS SHAPING UP AS COOL UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS AT HIER ELEVATION TERMINALS OF KLAR AND KCYS. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT THESE TWO SITES 09-12Z WITH -DZ/BR
EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH IMPACTS WILL BE LESS AT KRWL AND THE WRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRFIELDS...STILL ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AFTER 09Z. THESE POOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST AT
KLAR AND KCYS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD EVEN BEGIN TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT
AT THESE SITES AFTER 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS
AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT SHOULD START TO SEE
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK. ISSUED AT 438 AM
MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CAH
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
535 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH POPS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHERN
ARIZONA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO ON MOSAIC RADAR WHICH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING.
SOME DIFFERENCES SEEN BETWEEN MODELS FOR PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY AND
ON MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. ECMWF A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WHILE GFS TENDS TO HOLD THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
FURTHER WEST IN WESTERN WYOMING TODAY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
TODAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE SREF...NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS. DID
INCREASE POPS OUT THAT WAY FOR TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GET A LITTLE WINDY OUT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY
TODAY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING CLOSE TO 40KTS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE OVER RAWLINS. DID INCREASE WINDS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
TODAY OVER GUIDANCE.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES.
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON PRECIP COVERAGE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THIS TIME AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER ARIZONA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PRECIP CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
INITIALLY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY AND JET DYNAMICS
PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL ALSO HAVE UPSLOPE LLVL EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. PW/S WILL ALSO INCREASE BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH TO JUST OVER ONE INCH BY THURSDAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND SHOWS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE BULK OF THE DECENT RAINFALL
RATES FURTHER EAST...MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE JET ON THE 00Z GFS
SOLUTION...PRECIPITATION EXTENT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH SENSE UNLESS
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP BETWEEN 40 TO 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOUNTAINS. THIS APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY WARM
SYSTEM...SO SNOWLEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER 8000 FEET AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME COLDER AIR ATTEMPTING TO
PUSH INTO WYOMING LATE THURSDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...A COOL RAINY DAY IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY
ON THURSDAY.
LATER IN THE WEEK...THE NORTHERN BRANCH AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE JET WILL GRADUALLY PHASE TOGETHER INTO ONE PRIMARY JET
CORE OVER THE AREA. THIS IS WHERE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
STRUGGLING. THE GEM AND SEVERAL ECMWF/GFS MEMBERS SHOW A SECONDARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THURSDAY
SYSTEM...FORMING A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER AS WELL...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE JET POSITION AND
EVOLUTION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS ALONG WITH THE BULK OF
THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW THE SECONDARY TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT
PUSHES EASTWARD...WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA BY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GRADUALLY LOWERED
POP BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
TO LOW 60S ON SATURDAY...AND MID/UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA TODAY. SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON FROM KRWL TO KCYS. KEPT VCSH
IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS WITH THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE MAINLY
DRY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
WINDY DAY TODAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING CLOSE TO 40MPH OUT NEAR RAWLINS AND ARLINGTON AREAS. WE
ARE SEEING INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
312 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH POPS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHERN
ARIZONA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO ON MOSAIC RADAR WHICH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING.
SOME DIFFERENCES SEEN BETWEEN MODELS FOR PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY AND
ON MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. ECMWF A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WHILE GFS TENDS TO HOLD THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
FURTHER WEST IN WESTERN WYOMING TODAY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
TODAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE SREF...NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS. DID
INCREASE POPS OUT THAT WAY FOR TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GET A LITTLE WINDY OUT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY
TODAY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING CLOSE TO 40KTS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE OVER RAWLINS. DID INCREASE WINDS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
TODAY OVER GUIDANCE.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES.
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON PRECIP COVERAGE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THIS TIME AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER ARIZONA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PRECIP CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
INITIALLY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY AND JET DYNAMICS
PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL ALSO HAVE UPSLOPE LLVL EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. PW/S WILL ALSO INCREASE BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH TO JUST OVER ONE INCH BY THURSDAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND SHOWS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE BULK OF THE DECENT RAINFALL
RATES FURTHER EAST...MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE JET ON THE 00Z GFS
SOLUTION...PRECIPITATION EXTENT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH SENSE UNLESS
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP BETWEEN 40 TO 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOUNTAINS. THIS APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY WARM
SYSTEM...SO SNOWLEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER 8000 FEET AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME COLDER AIR ATTEMPTING TO
PUSH INTO WYOMING LATE THURSDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...A COOL RAINY DAY IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY
ON THURSDAY.
LATER IN THE WEEK...THE NORTHERN BRANCH AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE JET WILL GRADUALLY PHASE TOGETHER INTO ONE PRIMARY JET
CORE OVER THE AREA. THIS IS WHERE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
STRUGGLING. THE GEM AND SEVERAL ECMWF/GFS MEMBERS SHOW A SECONDARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THURSDAY
SYSTEM...FORMING A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER AS WELL...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE JET POSITION AND
EVOLUTION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS ALONG WITH THE BULK OF
THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW THE SECONDARY TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT
PUSHES EASTWARD...WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA BY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GRADUALLY LOWERED
POP BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
TO LOW 60S ON SATURDAY...AND MID/UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
LATEST IR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE SHOWERS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY
APPROACH SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST COLORADO. MAY STILL SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE RWL TAF SITE AFTER 09Z OR SO.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. LOWERED CEILINGS A
BIT (7-8KFT) ACROSS THE KLAR/KCYS SITES TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPENS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND SPREADING EAST TO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN
THIS SCENARIO DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. WE WILL MENTION VCSH IN THE
TAFS FOR NOW WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT BY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
WINDY DAY TODAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING CLOSE TO 40MPH OUT NEAR RAWLINS AND ARLINGTON AREAS. WE
ARE SEEING INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1143 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
LATEST RADAR LOOP FROM GRAND JUNCTION WAS SHOWING A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST UTAH MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE A BIT BASED ON THE
LATEST IR LOOP. MODELS DO SHOW SOME GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING
PLACE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY. AS A RESULT...WE
WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE CHANCE OF PRECIP. A BIT IN THAT
AREA. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
LATEST IR/RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA BORDER. THESE SHOWERS
ARE FLARING UP IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 315K.
WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LAST LONG. IN FACT...WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT THE SHOWERS BETWEEN 3 AND 5Z.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE RULE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION YESTERDAY
HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND TROUGH AXIS INTO BAJA WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND INSTABILITY WAS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED HEAVY CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH.
LIGHTER SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING FROM EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
PLAINS LEESIDE TROUGH AND RIDGE TO THE WEST WAS GENERATING GUSTY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COWBOY STATE. WARM TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE WITH READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE PLAINS.
AFTER THE RECENT STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES...A TREND
TOWARD COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TUESDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AS
THE MAIN LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WILL PRODUCE PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY INCREASE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR THE PLAINS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING LATE. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH HE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FROPA TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
A MUCH MORE SEASONAL PERIOD SHAPING UP WED-SUN WITH PRECIP CHANCES
RETURNING PRIMARILY WED-THU. THE PATTERN WILL BE SPLIT ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW OVR THE SW CONUS WILL BE DETACHED FROM THE NRN STREAM.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE EVENTUAL
PHASING OF THIS UPPER LOW WITH THE NRN STREAM ON THU. BEFORE THEN...
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND UNSETTLED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE CO STATELINE AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW PREVAILS. DO NOT EXPECT A WASHOUT ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH A COOL...
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DAY IS ANTICIPATED. THE CLOSED SW CONUS LOW OPENS
THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE
WRN PLAINS. ALL 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THURSDAY TO PROVIDE
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OF THE WEEK. WILL LIKELY NEED TO BOOST POPS
MORE OVR THE COMING DAYS AS CONFIDENCE OF THIS SYSTEM GROWS. GIVEN
THE WARMER ORIGIN OF THE SW CONUS UPPER-LOW DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL MUCH BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH IS HIGHS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S.
THE PHASED SYSTEM DEPARTS EAST ON FRIDAY...GRADUALLY BRINGING AN END
TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AT
THIS POINT WITH TEMPERATURES TRYING TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
LATEST IR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE SHOWERS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY
APPROACH SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST COLORADO. MAY STILL SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE RWL TAF SITE AFTER 09Z OR SO.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. WE DID LOWER CEILINGS
A BIT (7-8KFT) ACROSS THE LAR/CYS TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE SHORTWAVE DAMPENS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. THE HRRR IS
SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING EAST TO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT
REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. WE WILL
MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT BY
EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
MILD...BREEZY AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. LOWEST HUMIDITIES
WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. COOLER
AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
402 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ARIZONA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTN THRU TONIGHT AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE 4 CORNERS AREA BY 12Z
THU. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER NERN CO TODAY AND THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY...PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF I-70 AND NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER AREA. WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE IN PLACE AND SOME WK ASCENT IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN FURTHER SOUTH BY 12Z. BOTH
THE HRRR AND RAP AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO SO WILL KEEP IN HIGH POPS
FOR THE MTNS...FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS THRU MIDDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10000 FT ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX DOWN TO 9000 FEET
OR SO.
FOR THIS AFTN UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN HOWEVER QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS STILL SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THRU THE AFTN SO WILL
KEEP IN LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER PCON BY LATE AFTN MAY BEGIN TO
DECREASE FM NW TO SE AS THE BEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES SHIFT MORE TO
THE S AND SE. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS NERN CO.
BY TONIGHT THE BEST QG ASCENT WILL STAY MOSTLY TO THE S AND SE OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME WK VERTICAL VELOCITIES OVER THE PLAINS.
THUS WILL KEEP IN LIKELY POPS OVER THE ECNTRL PLAINS BUT WILL LOWER
THEM TO CHC ALONG MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE PALMER
DIVIDE. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SELY LOW LVL FLOW WILL KEEP IN
SOME HIGHER POPS OVER ZNS 34 AND 37 BUT ONLY HAVE A CHC IN MTN AREAS
NORTH OF I-70. MEANWHILE BY LATE TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEARS THE 4 CORNERS AREA WILL SEE A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MID LVL
ASCENT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
SRN AREAS OF CWA BY 12Z ON THU.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
MODELS HAVE A WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS AT 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS STILL A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND IT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS MODERATELY STRONG QG UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGGED ON THURSDAY AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS
ALL DOWNWARD MOTION THEE REST OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WIND IS PROGGED ON THURSDAY...WITH
WEAK DRAINAGE PATTERNS THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THERE IS NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BY AFTERNOON...THEN DRAINAGE AGAIN
FRIDAY OVERNIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS PLENTY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING. TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING SUNRISE...MOISTURE STARTS
TO DECREASE. FRIDAY DRIES OUT PARTIALLY...BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
MOISTURE IN PLACE BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS
BETTER DRYING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE
PROGGED LATE DAY THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA. THERE IS EVEN LESS PROGGED LATE DAY FRIDAY AND ONLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS ALL SHOW FAIRLY DECENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
ON THE QPF FIELDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. IT DECREASES
THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A TAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN MORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN SOME
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY EVENING. WILL NEED DECENT POPS ON
THURSDAY...30-70%S...EVEN A TAD OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL TAPER POPS DOWN BY MID EVENING AND MORE SO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL GO WITH 10-40%S POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR
TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-4 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S
HIGHS. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER AGAIN. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON SATURDAY...THEN WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE
INCREASE INTO MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT WITH THE TROUGH NOR IS THE COLDER AIR.
WILL KEEP MINIMAL POPS GOING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
CURRENTLY PCPN WAS NOT OCCURRING AT DIA HOWEVER SHOULD SEE
SHOWERS INCREASE BY 11Z OR 12Z WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO
IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT PCPN WILL LINGER THRU EARLY AFTN AND THEN
DECREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTN HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE.
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT ONLY SCT SHOWERS WITH IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CEILINGS. BY 12Z ON THU PCPN MAY INCREASE AGAIN AS MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW APPROACHES AREA. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NLY THIS MORNING
AND THEN BECOME NE BY EARLY AFTN WITH A GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE
ESE BY EARLY EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ033-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1134 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
ADDED ZONES 12 AND 18 TO THE EARLY SEASON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WITH SNOW ALREADY ACCUMULATING AT MONARCH PASS. THE CURRENT BAND
OF SNOW WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE A BREAK FOR A FEW
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LOOK TO REACH THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING FROM THE
SOUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE ROBUST RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SHEARED APART. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS LIKELY...BUT INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THEN WEAKENING NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING TO ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10000 FT
TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW
SAN JUANS OVERNIGHT. UP TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
THERE WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH OF I-70. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SNOWFALL.
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE CULPRIT FOR ALL THIS WEATHER..A CLOSED
LOW...WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SRN AZ WHILE SPOKES OF ENERGY CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND IT. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALREADY POP UP BTWN NAM AND
GFS/EC WITH NAM HIGHLIGHTING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP FOR OUR NRN TIER
ZONES WHILE GFS/EC FAVOR AREAS SOUTH. H7 WINDS FOUND IN NAM OVER
THIS AREA ARE IN THE 30 TO 35MPH RANGE WHILE THOSE IN OTHER MODELS
ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 MPH. NAM MAY BE PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON
THESE WINDS BRINGING MORE PRECIP INTO THAT AREA. WITH CONFIDENCE
NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ATTM...WILL KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS GOING FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REALIZATION THAT SOME AREAS WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OR ANY PRECIP WHILE OTHERS WILL. LATER
SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED ONCE MODELS AGREE
ON THE FINER DETAILS. FOR WED NIGHT...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT SAN
JUANS WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET
LIKELY SEEING SOME SNOW...AN INCH OR THREE. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP. WILL SEE HOW MUCH SNOW THOSE AREAS
RECEIVE TONIGHT BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE LOW FINALLY OPENS UP THURSDAY AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD CORE MOVES OVERHEAD
CAUSING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WHILE PWATS STILL REMAIN HIGH.
ALL HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS FAVORED IN THE MODELS BUT SOME VALLEYS
WILL ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS TO BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST USHERING IN COOLER AIR. MODELS HIGHLIGHT A POST FRONTAL
WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...2 TO 4 INCHES...LOOKS POSSIBLE
ABOVE 9K FEET OR SO. THE FLAT TOPS AND NRN MTNS LOOK FAVORED
THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND SAN JUANS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SOME
SNOW...AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES.
FRIDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING MORE ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS THOUGH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LOWER THAN SEEN
LATELY.
FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY AND THIS FLOW PERSISTS
THROUGH MONDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THOUGH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD BUT NOTHING TOO EXCEPTIONAL. PRECIP CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH...AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT RANGE
LOOKS FAVORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING
TO AROUND 10K AND NIGHT AND CLIMB TO AROUND 11K DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT AREAS OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ012-018-
019.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1105 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
UPDATED TO RAISE POPS A BIT OVER THE ERN PLAINS. RADAR TRENDS
AND LATEST HRRR POINT TO CONTINUED SCT-NMRS SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS E OF I-25 THIS EVENING. SHOULD BE A BIT OF A LULL AFTER 06Z
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
UPPER LOW FORECAST TO SWING INTO WESTERN AZ THIS EVENING...THEN LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER DURING THE DAY WED.
STRONG SHORT WAVE LIFTING AROUND THE LOW THROUGH NM ALREADY FORCING
A LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A FEW TSRA WORKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SANGRES/SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON. EXPECT WAVE TO ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
COLORADO THIS EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A LULL IN PRECIP
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WAVE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
WELL...WITH NORTH WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE TEMPORARILY HAMPERING
PRECIP AROUND PUEBLO AND COLORADO SPRINGS THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS START NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL THIS EVENING...BUT SLOWLY FALL
OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 10000
FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAN JUANS.
ON WEDNESDAY...AFTER A MORNING LULL...PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPS AND
SPREADS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER LOW EDGES CLOSER...WHICH
INCREASES VERTICAL MOTION AND ALLOWS LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS TO TURN
MORE E-NE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. INSTABILITY RATHER LIMITED...BUT
WITH FAIRLY STRONG FORCING TOUGH TO RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION GOING ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...BUT WITH CONVECTION AND
STRONG UPWARD MOTION...EXPECT SOME RATHER HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 10000
FEET...INCLUDING THE SUMMIT OF PIKES PEAK. WILL HOIST A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST HIGH MOUNTAIN ZONES BEGINNING THIS EVENING
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WED...THOUGH IMPACTS MAY BE LIMITED TO
AREAS MAINLY ABOVE PASS LEVEL. ELEVATIONS IN THE 8-10K RANGE MAY SEE
SNOW AT TIMES UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTION...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS THIS
LOW SHOULD BE MINOR. MAX TEMPS MUCH COOLER WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIP...THOUGH DID NUDGE MAX TEMP GRID UP SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL OF A FEW RAIN FREE HOURS EARLY IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. WED NIGHT THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
AZ...CONTINUING TO DRAW A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE UP ACROSS NM
AND INTO CO. THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO EJECT TO THE NE AND WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY THU...MOVING UP INTO EASTERN WY THU NIGHT.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CROSSES CO ON FRI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN...AND HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS...WILL OCCUR WED NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THU. BY THU EVE THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND
MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR SHOWERS TO START TAPERING OFF.
THEREFORE...THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS GOOD FOR
BEING IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z FRI. AS FOR TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON THU...THEN PERHAPS WARMING
UP TO NEAR 70F FOR FRI. LOW TEMPS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL
THREATEN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND HIGH VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN FOR THU
NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SAVE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SAT MORNING
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...THE WEEKEND LOOKS ESSENTIALLY DRY AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PAC
NW ON SUNDAY...THEN TRACKS EAST INTO THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL BRING THE RETURN OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE AREA MON
AFTERNOON...THEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WILL PRODUCE MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR ALL OF THE E PLAINS AND E MTS.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MAX TEMPS FOR BOTH DAYS
IN THE 60S. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWESTERN UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY...WET SNOW
WILL FLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET. WILL LIKELY SEE
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH MOST HIGHER PEAKS
AND PASSES OBSCURED. WILL CARRY VCSH IN TAFS OVERNIGHT WITH
POSSIBILITY FOR MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. LIKELIHOOD OF VCTS TOO
LOW TO MENTION.
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGS INCREASES ALL AREAS...INCLUDING
TAF SITES...12-15Z AS MOISTURE MOVES UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA. MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY BECOME OBSCURED ALL AREAS WITH HEAVY...WET SNOW ABOVE 9 TO
10 THOUSAND FEET. ALL 3 TAF SITES WILL SEE PERIODS OF RAIN WITH
MAINLY MVFR BUT POSSIBLY IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1045 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
ADDED ZONES 12 AND 18 TO THE EARLY SEASON WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WITH SNOW ALREADY ACCUMULATING AT MONARCH PASS. THE CURRENT BAND
OF SNOW WILL LAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE A BREAK FOR A FEW
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LOOK TO REACH THE SOUTHWEST COLORADO
DIVIDE MOUNTAINS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING FROM THE
SOUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE ROBUST RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS SHEARED APART. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS LIKELY...BUT INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST UTAH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE HRRR HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL IN THE SHORT TERM AND SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THEN WEAKENING NORTH OF THE SAN JUANS THIS EVENING TO ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10000 FT
TONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW
SAN JUANS OVERNIGHT. UP TO 5 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
THERE WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH OF I-70. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
SNOWFALL.
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE CULPRIT FOR ALL THIS WEATHER..A CLOSED
LOW...WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO SRN AZ WHILE SPOKES OF ENERGY CONTINUE
TO ROTATE AROUND IT. MODEL DIFFERENCES ALREADY POP UP BTWN NAM AND
GFS/EC WITH NAM HIGHLIGHTING SOME HEAVIER PRECIP FOR OUR NRN TIER
ZONES WHILE GFS/EC FAVOR AREAS SOUTH. H7 WINDS FOUND IN NAM OVER
THIS AREA ARE IN THE 30 TO 35MPH RANGE WHILE THOSE IN OTHER MODELS
ARE ONLY ABOUT 10 MPH. NAM MAY BE PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS ON
THESE WINDS BRINGING MORE PRECIP INTO THAT AREA. WITH CONFIDENCE
NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ATTM...WILL KEEP CHC TO SCHC POPS GOING FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REALIZATION THAT SOME AREAS WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE MUCH OR ANY PRECIP WHILE OTHERS WILL. LATER
SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED ONCE MODELS AGREE
ON THE FINER DETAILS. FOR WED NIGHT...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT SAN
JUANS WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10K FEET
LIKELY SEEING SOME SNOW...AN INCH OR THREE. OTHER AREAS WILL SEE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERY TYPE PRECIP. WILL SEE HOW MUCH SNOW THOSE AREAS
RECEIVE TONIGHT BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY HIGHLIGHTS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE LOW FINALLY OPENS UP THURSDAY AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COLD CORE MOVES OVERHEAD
CAUSING AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WHILE PWATS STILL REMAIN HIGH.
ALL HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS FAVORED IN THE MODELS BUT SOME VALLEYS
WILL ALSO SEE SOME PRECIP. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS TO BE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST USHERING IN COOLER AIR. MODELS HIGHLIGHT A POST FRONTAL
WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...2 TO 4 INCHES...LOOKS POSSIBLE
ABOVE 9K FEET OR SO. THE FLAT TOPS AND NRN MTNS LOOK FAVORED
THOUGH THE CENTRAL AND SAN JUANS WILL ALSO SEE SOME SOME
SNOW...AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES.
FRIDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
BRINGING MORE ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS THOUGH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD KEEP INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LOWER THAN SEEN
LATELY.
FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL SATURDAY AND THIS FLOW PERSISTS
THROUGH MONDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THOUGH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD BUT NOTHING TOO EXCEPTIONAL. PRECIP CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH...AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT RANGE
LOOKS FAVORED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE STRONG...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. CIGS WILL
BRIEFLY DROP BELOW MVFR THRESHOLDS AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SNOW
LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN AOA 10K THROUGH THIS OPERATIONAL PERIOD. IFR
OR LIFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR KDRO AND KTEX FROM 21Z-00Z
...KMTJ...KCNY...KMTJ...KASE AND KEGE FROM 00Z-06Z. MOUNTAIN TOPS
WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ012-018-
019.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JOE/TGR
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
152 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL
A RATHER DRY LAYER BELOW H800 FROM KALY AND KBUF WHICH CONCUR
WITH THE CEILINGS BETWEEN 5-8K FEET. THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE
CONTINUED TO TRACK EAST WEAKENED WITH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING A
LITTLE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS THE SAME AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT. HAVE FORECAST
POPS TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 50 PERCENT NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE NORTHERN HALF
OF BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES VERMONT. FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. STILL
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH GREATER
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY. IT WILL BE QUITE
MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AROUND 70 FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MORE
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE VERY
MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
POPS FOR THE DAY WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...RANGING DOWN TO ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 70 ONCE AGAIN.
MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CHILLY CANADIAN AIRMASS BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AS 1030+MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL TRANSVERSE THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS BUT AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THEN THE UPPER LOW/STORM IMPACTING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A QUICK SYNOPTIC SHIFT TOWARD A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...THERE
REMAINS A BRIEF TAP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FEED WHICH IS
SEEN IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. SO WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHER
POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING PER TIMING OF THE
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SUITE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AS OPPOSED TO THE GGEM/GFS
WHICH WANT TO LINGER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE I84
CORRIDOR. SEEMS THE KEY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE STRENGTH THE OF
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. ENSEMBLE MEANS DAMPEN OUT
THE FEATURES SO FOR NOW WE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY THE LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE AND KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF AS WE RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL.
CONSENSUS INCREASES FOR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WHICH FOR LATER OCTOBER...AVERAGE
HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN NY AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH
AND EAST OVER THE REGION...AND WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A THREAT FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY FROM KALB-
KPSF NORTHWARD INTO THE LATE MORNING. SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS AT KALB/KGFL ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY PM. OTHER THAN THE SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR KALB/KPSF/KPOU. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT KPOU. KGFL MAY HAVE A PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD
DECK AROUND 2 KFT AGL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT
KPSF BTWN 12Z-18Z. ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
PRIOR TO 00Z/THU.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 3 KTS OR LESS
THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT NEARBY.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT... AND THEN DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT.
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM/11
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...BGM/WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...GJM/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
146 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK FOR LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...NO OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE. THE TEMPERATURES
WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED FROM CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS. THE FORECAST
OVERALL REMAINS ON TRACK.
THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
REACHING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT COUNTIES
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. KEPT A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO
INCREASE POPS WITH NEXT FORECAST IF RADAR TRENDS INCREASE WITH
REFLECTIVITY AND THEREBY SHOWERS.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE
REGION. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT...RESULTING IN WINDS
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION...SO SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE. USED A MIX OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND
REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S...WITH THE COOLEST LOCATIONS RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING NEARBY...EXPECT
ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE 40S AND 50S. A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...A
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH LOW IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S INLAND AND MID TO
UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BEGIN TO WARM UP
TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BEFORE
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. A COLD FRONT STALLS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES.
LIGHT W/SE FLOW THIS MORNING BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTN
WITH SEA BREEZE COMPONENT FLOW. LGT AND VRB WINDS TNGT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...
.WED NIGHT...VFR.
.THU...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS...MAINLY INLAND
AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW WINDS G20KT.
.FRI...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT.
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN...MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EAST
OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...SCA CONTINUES UNTIL 10Z WED...MAINLY DUE TO
RESIDUAL HIGHER SEAS EXCEEDING 5 FT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MIGHT ALLOW WINDS
AND SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS ON THURSDAY ACROSS ALL AREA WATERS.
SEAS AND WINDS DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY AND REMAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY ON THE OCEAN IN A SOUTHWEST
FLOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/FIG
NEAR TERM...BC/JM/JP
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...JMC/PW
MARINE...BC/JM/FIG
HYDROLOGY...BC/FIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1220 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1220 AM EDT...A COLD FRONT WAS DRIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL
A RATHER DRY LAYER BELOW H800 FROM KALY AND KBUF WHICH CONCUR
WITH THE CEILINGS BETWEEN 5-8K FEET. THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE
CONTINUED TO TRACK EAST WEAKENED WITH THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING A
LITTLE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPS. SO WE WILL KEEP POPS THE SAME AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT. HAVE FORECAST
POPS TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 50 PERCENT NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND THE NORTHERN HALF
OF BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES VERMONT. FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OR DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST. STILL
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH GREATER
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY. IT WILL BE QUITE
MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TO
AROUND 70 FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH AND MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MORE
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE AT NIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL BE VERY
MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
ON THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
POPS FOR THE DAY WILL INCREASE TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...RANGING DOWN TO ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 70 ONCE AGAIN.
MUCH COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT AS A CHILLY CANADIAN AIRMASS BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM WITH A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AS 1030+MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL TRANSVERSE THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER TRANQUIL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS BUT AT OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THEN THE UPPER LOW/STORM IMPACTING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A QUICK SYNOPTIC SHIFT TOWARD A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR MORE
SHOWERS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSION...THERE
REMAINS A BRIEF TAP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE FEED WHICH IS
SEEN IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. SO WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHER
POPS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING PER TIMING OF THE
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SUITE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN AS THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AS OPPOSED TO THE GGEM/GFS
WHICH WANT TO LINGER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE I84
CORRIDOR. SEEMS THE KEY TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE STRENGTH THE OF
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. ENSEMBLE MEANS DAMPEN OUT
THE FEATURES SO FOR NOW WE WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY THE LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE AND KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF AS WE RETURN BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL.
CONSENSUS INCREASES FOR MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SURFACE RIDGE WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WHICH FOR LATER OCTOBER...AVERAGE
HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/THU FOR KPOU-KPSF-KALB. WHILE
AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE PREVALENT...CIGS WERE ABOVE FLIGHT
THRESHOLDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE CLOSE TO KGFL...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS...MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS MAY ALSO IMPACT KALB-KPSF AS WE
WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND VCSH RESPECTFULLY.
GENERALLY...WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP
THE GRADIENT RATHER DIFFUSE.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT... AND THEN DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A BETTER
CHANCEOF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT.
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM/BGM/11
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...BGM/WASULA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...GJM/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
534 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN FEATURE
THAT STANDS OUT IS DEEP AND ENERGETIC TROUGHING PIVOTING SLOWLY
THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST/SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS FEATURE IS
CENTERED BY A CLOSED LOW FEATURE SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WHILE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM WE FIND WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE HEIGHT FALLS ABOUT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ACT TO FORCE AN AMPLIFICATION OF THIS
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE THROUGH TODAY AND THURSDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE POSITION
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A STEADY EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE PENINSULA...WHICH WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CONDITIONS ARE SEASONABLE AS WE APPROACH DAWN EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THAT WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHALLOW SPEED
CONVERGENCE SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST...HOWEVER JUST ABOUT ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS DISSIPATING BEFORE
REACHING OUR INLAND ZONES. THIS PROCESS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT DO ANTICIPATE THE EVENTUALLY LATER THIS
MORNING SOME OF THIS LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
REACH PORTIONS OF SUMTER/POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES (BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT...JUST A FEW RAIN DROPS).
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
TODAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONDITIONS WILL BE
QUIET...SEASONABLE...AND MAINLY DRY TO START OUT THE DAY. SKIES
WILL QUICKLY BECOME A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH AND MIDDLE 80S
SOUTH. LOOKING AT MOISTURE PROFILES...THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS A BIT GREATER TODAY THAN IT WAS ON TUESDAY. THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD HELP A FEW MORE OF THE SPEED CONVERGENT
ATLANTIC SHOWERS ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO REACH OUR INLAND
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FURTHER
WITH WESTWARD PROGRESS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES
MAKING IT AS FAR AS THE NATURE COAST AND I-75 CORRIDOR AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE/LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE GONE WITH A 20% POP
OVER INLAND AREAS...AND A 10% POP FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT ANY
RAINFALL TODAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. MOST AREAS WILL
NOT EVEN SEE A WETTING RAINFALL...BUT RATHER PERHAPS JUST A FEW
PASSING RAINDROPS. BEST CHANCES AT SEEING SOMETHING MEASURABLE IN
THE 0.01-0.05" RANGE WOULD BE FROM SUMTER COUNTY...DOWN INTO
EASTERN POLK AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE...MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
TONIGHT...ANY EVENING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD DISSIPATE
WITH ANOTHER MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN THE
FORECAST.
THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVERHEAD
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE ADDED SUPPRESSION LOOKS AS
THOUGH IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO AGAIN LIMIT THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE
ACTIVITY THAT IS ABLE TO REACH OUR FORECAST ZONES. DO NOT HAVE
ANYTHING MORE THAN 10% POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH
SPRINKLE MENTION CONFINED TO EASTERN POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...IF
NOT A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW/MID 80S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 80S
SOUTH.
HAVE A GREAT WEDNESDAY EVERYONE!
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
A STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE TROUGH WILL
LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND
SUPPRESS THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...HOWEVER THE MAIN
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A WEAKER U/L RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...A STRONG COMPLEX U/L LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
INDUCE STRONG SHARP RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND
CANADA.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS EACH DAY. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
EARLY NEXT WEEK COMBINED WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THIS MORNING...AND GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELDS WILL BE
AROUND WITH BASES GENERALLY ABOVE 3-4KFT AGL. A FEW SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS. WINDS BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BY
MID/LATE MORNING...AND THEN SETTLE DOWN WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...PROVIDING A STEADY
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR NOCTURNAL AND EARLY MORNING
SURGES OF WIND. THESE SURGES OF WIND ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PERIODICALLY REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
BOATERS HEADING OUT ON THE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND ARE URGED TO CHECK
THE LATEST FORECASTS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATER EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY MIDDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STALLED TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY KEEPING A STEADY EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER
DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE HIGH DURING EACH OF THE NEXT TWO
AFTERNOONS. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER
ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 70 87 70 / 10 0 0 0
FMY 88 70 87 70 / 0 0 10 10
GIF 85 67 85 68 / 20 10 10 0
SRQ 86 70 86 71 / 10 0 0 0
BKV 85 65 86 65 / 10 0 0 0
SPG 84 72 85 72 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60
NM- WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1150 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
Going to have to boost PoPs, at least a little, across much of the
forecast area tonight. A MCV from a pesky convective complex is
currently tracking east across northern Illinois. Some enhanced
forcing trailing from this MCV, along with a developing nocturnal
low-level jet, is increasing shower development over the western
portion of the forecast area. This development is likely to track
east along with the MCV, although a the airmass is drier and low-
level jet weaker as you head east. Despite the higher PoPs, the
overall rainfall should be minimal due to the very dry low-level
airmass across central Illinois. Other tweaks to forecast will be
minor.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1030mb high centered over the
southeast CONUS and a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into
the Northern Plains. Between these two features...strong
southwesterly winds will continue to transport warm air into
Illinois tonight. Latest satellite/radar composite shows remnants
of convective cluster that formed along the nose of a low-level jet
late last night over northwest Missouri now crossing the Mississippi
River just north of Quincy. These showers will continue to track
northeastward over the next few hours, mainly impacting locations
northwest of the Illinois River. As the nocturnal LLJ once again
strengthens from eastern Kansas to northern Illinois tonight,
additional showers will develop across north-central Illinois. Both
the NAM and HRRR suggest the northern half of the KILX CWA could
potentially see showers, so will carry a slight chance PoP across
this area accordingly. Further south will maintain a dry forecast.
Due to increasing cloud cover and a continued southerly wind of 10-
15 mph, overnight low temperatures will be considerably warmer than
in recent nights. Readings will range from the upper 40s near the
Indiana border, to the middle to upper 50s along/west of I-55.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
Breezy southwest winds will continue Wednesday as high
pressure remains off the central Atlantic coastline and low
pressure moves eastward through the northern Great Lakes area.
Sustained SW winds around 15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph can be
expected. A frontal boundary trailing the low will bring at least a
slight chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms settling
southward through central IL Wednesday evening through Thursday as
moisture advects northward from the Gulf in southerly flow ahead of
the boundary. Warm conditions will precede the front...with highs
reaching around 80 degrees throughout central IL
Wednesday...lowering several degrees from I-72 northward for
Thursday. To the south...little cooling will take place as the front
stalls out and weakens in that vicinity. Highs mainly in the low to
mid 70s will follow for Friday and Saturday.
Next chance for precipitation will take place Friday into Saturday
as models coming into fairly good agreement tracking a surface low
into the upper Midwest by Friday evening...with precipitation moving
into western Illinois by Friday afternoon. General model trend has
been to move this system in faster over the past few days...with the
latest runs continuing to speed up the system...although the run-to-
run differences are not dramatic as of the 12Z run. Timing of
the cold front associated with this system...combined with forecast
instability ahead of the front still supports a chance for
thunderstorms Saturday...especially toward the southern and eastern
portions of Illinois.
Cooler and dry conditions will follow the front for Sunday through
Tuesday...except for possibly a few showers lingering in SE Illinois
Sunday. Highs should drop back to near normal for central/SE
Illinois...with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows
generally in the low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
A few bands of light showers and isolated thunderstorms have
developed and are tracking across central Illinois late this
evening. While any rainfall will be light in most cases, the
coverage and intensity has increased to the point that TEMPO
groups are needed for most local terminals for the next few hours.
However, even in the heavier rainfall, expect VFR conditions to
prevail. Otherwise, southerly winds will prevail through the bulk
of the period, with gustiness also expected during the peak
diurnal mixing hours Wednesday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1138 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
REST OF THIS EVE INTO EARLY OVRNGT WILL SEE CONTINUED DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM W TO E... AS LOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE MIGRATES EASTWARD. SYSTEM DEPOSITED 1-3 INCH RAIN TOTALS
OVER PORTIONS OF IOWA...JOHNSON...MUSCATINE AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES ALONG WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL PEA TO NEAR
PENNY SIZE. MLI FINALLY SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN 31 DAYS TYING FOR THE 7TH LONGEST DRY STREAK ON RECORD. IN
WAKE OF SYSTEM... MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG OVRNGT WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RAINFALL. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
MINS TNGT DOWN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS MAINLY NORTH HALF OF CWA
WHERE CURRENT TEMPS IN A FEW LOCATIONS ARE AT OR JUST BELOW FCST
LOWS DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR.
OTHERWISE...WATCHING ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE CURRENTLY LIFTING
NEWD THROUGH KS. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO GET SHUTTLED UP OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VLY NEXT 24 HRS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT MAY SEE
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES WITH VEERING LOW
LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALSO HINTED AT BY LATEST RUNS OF
HRRR AND RAP ... THUS HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHC/ISOLD COVERAGE WORDING
FOR LATER TNGT SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES. THESE RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TO EXPAND NORTHWARD DURING DAY ON WEDNESDAY ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE... AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD SHOWERS FOR NOW... BUT TRENDS
AND FORCING WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE. DID NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY... ALTHOUGH IF MORE
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THEN THESE COULD BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK 850MB LOW IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A LLJ RAN
FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE MISSOURI RIVER. SATELLITE TRENDS HAS MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND THERE IS SOME THUNDER EMBEDDED
WITH THE CONVECTION.
18Z SFC DATA HAS A BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN AND A WEAK LOW IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS WERE IN 30S
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH 40S AND 50S FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR DATA AND TRENDS FROM THE RAP...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA AS MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS DECREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
ON WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH NO APPARENT TRIGGER OR FORCING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT ARE
COMING FROM THE WEST WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK.
THUS WILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
WARM TEMPERATURES. ONE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY RUMBLE OF
THUNDER EITHER. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE TWO CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
THE FIRST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AND THE OTHER WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AT
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA AT THE BEGINNING OF
PERIOD LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH. AS SUCH HAVE SCHC WITH A
LOW END CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIRES ARW AND NMM BOTH OF
MODEL REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT. THE BOUNDARY THEN SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND STALLS OUT WITH A H5 RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SW ON FRIDAY AND THE
SFC BOUNDARY RETURNS TO THE NORTH. A ROBUST WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE THE AREA
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. A PREFRONTAL WAVE LOOKS TO FIRE
PRECIP BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN. THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE WOULD SUGGEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF THERE WAS
ANY INSTABILITY. THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM THIS WAVE
SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM. IF
FOR SOME REASON THE SFC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURNS SOONER THAN
PROGGED...SLIGHT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WOULD LEAD TO A HSLC
TORNADO THREAT. THIS IS A VERY LOW CHANCE...AND INGREDIENTS NEED TO
MATCH UP FOR IT OCCUR...BUT NONETHELESS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AMOUNT
WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE PRECIP SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND LEAD TO A
DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PAST THIS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR DATA AND TRENDS FROM THE RAP...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA AS MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS DECREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
ON WEDNESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH NO APPARENT TRIGGER OR FORCING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WINDS ALOFT ARE
COMING FROM THE WEST WHICH IS GENERALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK.
THUS WILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
WARM TEMPERATURES. ONE CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY RUMBLE OF
THUNDER EITHER. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED ARE TWO CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
THE FIRST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AND THE OTHER WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AT
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FROPA AT THE BEGINNING OF
PERIOD LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH. AS SUCH HAVE SCHC WITH A
LOW END CHC POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIRES ARW AND NMM BOTH OF
MODEL REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
IF THESE MODELS ARE CORRECT. THE BOUNDARY THEN SAGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND STALLS OUT WITH A H5 RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW TURNS TO THE SW ON FRIDAY AND THE
SFC BOUNDARY RETURNS TO THE NORTH. A ROBUST WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE THE AREA
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. A PREFRONTAL WAVE LOOKS TO FIRE
PRECIP BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN. THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE WOULD SUGGEST STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IF THERE WAS
ANY INSTABILITY. THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM THIS WAVE
SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM. IF
FOR SOME REASON THE SFC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURNS SOONER THAN
PROGGED...SLIGHT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WOULD LEAD TO A HSLC
TORNADO THREAT. THIS IS A VERY LOW CHANCE...AND INGREDIENTS NEED TO
MATCH UP FOR IT OCCUR...BUT NONETHELESS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AMOUNT
WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE PRECIP SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND LEAD TO A
DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PAST THIS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 21/06Z. AROUND DAYBREAK
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF FOG WITH VSBYS 3-6SM
DUE TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL. A FEW
MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM
MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-80... WITH CHANCES TO LOW FOR MENTION.
TOWARD MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY AM THROUGH AFTERNOON WILL SEE
EXPANSION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO INTERACTION OF NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH VCSH
WORDING. FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
329 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WAS
RELATIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF YESTERDAY WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT TO OVERCOME
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. IN FACT...PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE
AREA WILL TOP ONE INCH THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS MID LEVEL FRONT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS OF 630Z...THIS SHORT WAVE WAS
LOCATED OVER METRO CHICAGO AND MOVING NORTHEAST. IT WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SE MI IN THE 12 TO 15 Z
TIME FRAME. THE SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THIS WAVE SUGGESTS THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE TOO WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE. REGIONAL RADAR ALONG
WITH THE RECENT HRRR SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MORE PROLONGED AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR WHERE SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENSUES FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE
OF THIS WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO NRN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIFT THE SFC WARM FRONT /NOW EXTENDING ACROSS
CNTL LOWER MI AND THE TIP OF THE THUMB/ NORTHWARD...PLACING ALL OF
SE MI WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE EXTENT OF RESIDUAL MID CLOUDS. THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES AND THE EXPECTATION OF
GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI TONIGHT /3-9Z/...DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
DEEP LAYER FRONTAL FORCING ACTING UPON A LOW-MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE
PRECEDING THE SFC FRONT AND SOME DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES THIS WEEK. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN TENDS TO KEEP MUCH OF THE ENERGY
AND FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT COLD FRONTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC REFLECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL RESIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET STREAM THUS
SOMEWHAT MILD TEMPERATURES...AT OR JUST BELOW LATE OCTOBER
AVERAGES...WILL CONTINUE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH BUT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL YIELD SOME DEGREE OF
SHALLOW CAA. MORE NOTABLY THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL TAKE A BIG HIT
ABOVE 900MB WITH PWATS FALLING TO BELOW A HALF INCH. THIS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY RESULTING IN SUNNY
SKIES MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 30S AS NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
SUCH A DRY AIRMASS.
THOUGH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION...COOL EASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWEST 100MB WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. CHANGES
THEN COME TO THE PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE SW CONUS EJECTING NE THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF LOWER MI BUT A LL JET SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MI
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS
TO START DRIFTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STRING OUT NE TO SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MI AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS
FURTHER NE. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP ONGOING THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK BUT MODELS INDICATE THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SO WE WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY DIVING THROUGH THE TROUGH DURING THAT TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS LOW HAS PULLED
A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH THE REGION WHICH HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE AIR OVER THE LAKES KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS
TEMPERED...MAXING OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
PASSES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BURST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX BUT NOT BEFORE
VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL SEND THE HIGHER WAVES DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE TOWARD. WAVES POSSIBLE REACHING 4 FEET MAY BRUSH
THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE THUMB THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1144 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
FRONTAL ZONE IS SLOWLY LIFTING BACK NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE
LIFTING TOWARD THE CHICAGO AREA. INCREASED FORCING IS SUPPORTING
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. DRY AIR WILL TAKE ITS
TOLL ON INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SO SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE MORE
LIMITED OUTSIDE THE KFNT/KPTK CORRIDOR. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN
SHIELD WILL PUSH THROUGH APPROX 09-15Z. LOCALLY HEAVIER RATES MAY
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS, BUT ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING SHOWERS
TO BE HIGH BASED WITH LITTLE TO NO VSBY RESTRICTION...PARTICULARLY
IN THE DETROIT AREA.
FOR DTW...DTW WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE MOST
ORGANIZED RAINFALL WHICH INCREASES UNCERTAINTY IN -SHRA POTENTIAL.
ELECTED TO HIGHLIGHT PERIOD OF PEAK POTENTIAL IN THE TAF, BUT NOTE
THAT EVEN IN SHOWERS CIG AND VSBY WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY VFR WITH
CIGS STAYING ABOVE 5KFT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
137 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE
AREA WILL ALSO SEE CHANCES OF RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
COME TO AN END BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO
COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER THREAT OF RAIN WILL COME IN ON
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
I INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR RAIN TO 80 PCT OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA
AS THE CONVECTIVE SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF IOWA HEADS TOWARD
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN. ALREADY THE PRECIPITATION ECHOES ARE
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF LITTLE SABLE POINT...OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE SHORTWAVE IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. I ALSO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TILL MIDNIGHT AS SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY DOES NOW GET
INTO THOSE COUNTIES (23Z RAP MODEL).
EVEN THROUGH THE RAP MODEL SHOWS AREA OF 1000/850 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASING AS IT MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE 10 PM
TO 2 AM TIME FRAME...IT ALSO KILLS THE LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT CONVECTIVE VORT AS IT MOVES TOWARD MICHIGAN. IN SO DOING
IT ALSO KILLS THE PRECIPITATION TOO. SINCE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
LOOKS GOOD AND THE SYSTEM STILL LOOKS GOOD ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES I
AM GOING WITH THE SYSTEM HOLDING TOGETHER ANYWAY. THUS I KEEP THE
60 TO 70 PCT POP NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96 GOING TILL 8 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
OUR MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING RAIN TRENDS AND
THUNDER CHCS THROUGH WED NIGHT.
WE HAVE A COUPLE OF NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. ONE IS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER THAT IS MOVING EAST...AND
DIMINISHING. ANOTHER IS BETWEEN I-96 AND I-94 THAT IS COMING FROM
THE CHICAGO AREA AND SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. WE ARE EXPECTING THESE
SHOWERS TO TREND DOWN BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND BRINGING A LULL IN
PCPN FOR A FEW HOURS.
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF WED MORNING. THERE IS A SURGE OF
MOISTURE THAT WILL COME IN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WAVE NOW ACROSS NRN
MO. THE RAIN SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY AND THE CHC OF THUNDER IS QUITE LOW
ONCE AGAIN WITH ELEVATED LI/S ONLY JUST A SHADE BELOW ZERO C.
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THE WAVE OF RAIN WED
MORNING MOVES OUT. SLIGHTLY BETTER ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES IN
WED...JUSTIFYING THE CHC OF THUNDER AT THAT TIME. WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER HEALTHY SURGE IN MOISTURE MOVE IN LATE WED AFTERNOON AND WED
EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN SURGE WITH THE LLJ THAT WILL BE JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING IN WED NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD BRING A GOOD CHC OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT CLEARS LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING.
WE WILL SEE DRIER AIR MOVE IN FOR THU ALONG WITH COOLER AIR. RAIN
SHOULD BE DONE BY 12Z THU. SOME FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE UPR RIDGE SHOWN TO BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z.
HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z SAT SINCE THE
SFC DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 30S DUE TO THE DRY EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. VIRGA/SPRINKLES WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO.
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SATURDAY AFTERNOON COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS PRECEDING
THE FRONT STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST
SINCE LITTLE TO NO MU CAPE IS PROGGED. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
IN THE SOUTHEAST CWFA ON SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT
COMPLETELY CLEARS THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR AND
SFC RIDGING BRINGS DECREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOLER SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY.
AFTER DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES
TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. RAIN COVERAGE/AMOUNTS LOOK
LIMITED AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TODAY...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN
5-8K FEET AND UNRESTRICTED VSBYS OUTSIDE OF A LOCALIZED BRIEF
DOWN POUR.
A COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BUILD WAVES TO 3 TO 5 FEET
NORTH OF HOLLAND WEDNESDAY. I SAW NO REASON TO WAIT TO ISSUE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SINCE APX ALREADY HAS ONE OUT...SO IT IS NOW
IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING NORTH OF HOLLAND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
RIVERS ARE RUNNING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. A STRIPE OF BASIN-AVERAGE
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER A QUARTER INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
NEITHER RAIN EVENT IS ANTICIPATED TO CREATE A FLOOD RISK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR LMZ846>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
128 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BRISK N TO NE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN
ONTARIO HAVE SUPPORTED A PERSISTENT PATCH OF UPSLOPE STRATOCU OVER
BARAGA COUNTY AND THE NW HALF OF MQT COUNTY. WITH THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS SAGGING SOUTH OF MNM COUNTY AND
NRN LAKE MI...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SCNTRL FCST AREA.
TONIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SCNTRL
CANADA TONIGHT...850MB WAA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS OF MODELS INDICATES BETTER ISENTROPIC MOIST
ASCENT WL STAY SE OF THE FCST AREA. MEANWHILE...BEST DEEP LAYER
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE NW OF
THE FCST AREA AS NOTED ON 700-300 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS
STILL ARGUES FOR TWO AREAS OF DEVELOPING PCPN TO SPLIT SE AND NW OF
THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...WHICH IS STILL CONSISTENT WITH MODEL QPF
GUIDANCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY CARRY SCHC POPS TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL BE
MOVING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH 150M 12
HR 5H HEIGHT FALLS FCST BY MODELS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS A DEEPENING SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
KEWEENAW IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTING NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY
WED EVENING. THE BEST DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOC WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE NORTH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG THE SHORTWAVE TRACK AND
AGAIN THE BETTER MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN SE OF THE FCST
AREA. THIS SPLIT IN FORCING WILL WORK TO KEEP RAIN SHOWERS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AT BEST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA WHERE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ADDITIONALLY...BEHIND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...MODELS ADVERTISE A RISE/FALL COUPLET WHICH WILL
AID GUSTY W TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION INCREASES DESTABILIZATION AND
MIXING. THIS COULD ALL LEAD TO GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR OVER NW MARQUETTE COUNTY
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GALES POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
EXITING LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LOW NEARING FROM THE W FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CROSSING THE CWA THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A
COUPLE OF INCREASED WIND EVENTS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
STEADY SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT E UPPER MI WEDNESDAY
EVENING. PW VALUES AROUND 0.5IN OR LESS AT 00Z THURSDAY OVER THE W
HALF...WITH 1IN VALUES EXITING FAR E. NW FLOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE IN
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW OVER FAR NE LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z
AND THE DRAGGING COLD FRONT EXITS JUST E OF THE CWA...WITH RAPIDLY
INCREASING WINDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E WITH WINDS GUSTING 25-35KTS. BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY THE SFC LOW WILL BE JUST S OF JAMES BAY AND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE E OF LAKE HURON. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY TROUGH WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS S LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z
THURSDAY...PROLONGING THE WNW WINDS A BIT LONGER. 850MB TEMPS OF
-1 TO -3C THURSDAY MORNING WITH THESE UPSLOPE/LAKESHORE CONVERGENT
WINDS WILL KEEP LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE SET UP FROM HUDSON BAY THROUGH IA AT 12Z THURSDAY WILL
SHIFT TO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE DAY
WITH LIGHTER WINDS TAKING HOLD OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE E HALF OF
THE CWA BY 06Z FRIDAY...THEN EXIT E AS THE 500MB RIDGE SLIDES
OVERHEAD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BEHIND THE
HIGH AS A DEEPENING LOW NEARS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE LOW TO SLIDE ACROSS MN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ACROSS OR JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z SATURDAY. A WIDESPREAD 0.1
TO 0.3IN OF RAIN LOOKS LIKELY...STILL WITH THE BULK OF PRECIP
FALLING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUDS OF MOISTURE TO LINGER BEHIND THE LOW...AS THE 500MB TROUGH
SET UP ACROSS MN AT 12Z SATURDAY MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE OVER
BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH POSSIBLY
SHIFTING IN FROM THE NW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT MIXED PRECIP GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
KIWD/KCMX...WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
UNCERTAINTY MAINLY EXISTS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXTENT OF
LOWERING CIGS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
KSAW...WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS SE FLOW PULLS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. DO NOT THINK THAT FOG WILL
RESULT AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST...PREFER A LOW STRATUS INSTEAD.
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH EXTENT OF LOWEST CIGS AND FOG
POTENTIAL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015
HIGH PRES ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN BRISK NE WINDS IN THE 15-
30KT RANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS EVENING...STRONGEST OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL AND
ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TONIGHT/WED
MORNING AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHES.
THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30KT ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE E HALF OF
THE LAKE ON WED. A LOW PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TROF AND
PASS JUST N OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED AFTN. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAVORABLY
ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC BOOST TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS ALONG THE TIP AND IN THE
LEE OF THE KEWEENAW LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING SO WL INCLUDE A GALE
WARNING FOR LSZ264>266 FOR THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW WED
NIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE FRI/SAT AS ANOTHER LOW
PRES TROF SWEEPS THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LSZ264>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
307 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
AT 07Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...FAR NWRN KS
INTO NE CO. NORTHERLY WINDS WERE GUSTY AT 15 TO 30 MPH. A SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERED IN THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS
BETWEEN STAPLETON AND AINSWORTH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER
50S IN NWRN NEBR...TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SERN FA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW WILL ADVANCE INTO SRN AZ BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOC UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CENTER
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TRANSPORTING ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST CONDITIONS INTO TEXAS...ERN NEW MEXICO...OKLA AND KS. IN FACT
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1 INCH ACROSS SWRN AND SRN NEBR. SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY WILL MAINLY RANGE AS SLIGHT CHANCE AND LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA THIS MORNING AND ONLY ACROSS THE FAR SERN
PANHANDLE IN SWRN NEBR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A LACK OF ANY MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER FORCING OVER WRN NEBR...THE FOCUS TODAY WILL
RESIDE ACROSS COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STALL OUT FROM NEAR LNK NE...THROUGH HAYS AND SCOTT CITY KS.
CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS WRN NEBR SHOW A FAIRLY SATURATED H85 TO H5
LAYER. THIS MEANS SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF FA
TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH. DUE TO MUCH COOLER H85 TEMPS OF 8C TO
10C...HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. KEPT
HIGH VERY NEAR PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST AVBL MOS GUIDANCE.
AS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TONIGHT...STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR FROM SRN TX NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE TX PNHDL INTO WRN KS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF NCTRL BY LATE
TONIGHT. LIKELY POPS INTO SWRN NEBR AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO INDICATION OF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION FOR ANY
THUNDER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE MID RANGE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...WHICH WILL SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL PUSH EAST IN TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. H85 WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL FORCE GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY. PWATS BY 12Z THURSDAY ARE RUNNING
AROUND 1.1 INCHES PER THE NAM AND GFS FOR NORTH PLATTE. FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...PWATS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE NEAR RECORD HIGHS. IN
ADDITION TO ROBUST MOISTURE...DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY...FACILITATING EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION RIGHT
THROUGH THE HEART OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH THIS
IN MIND...HAVE TRENDED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL GIVEN THE STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS FOR THURSDAY. ONE CAVEAT
HERE IS THE NAM/S DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN LATER TONIGHT. THINKING HERE
IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ONSET OF PCPN PER THE GFS SOLN...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH IS SLOWER TO MIGRATE EAST TONIGHT. REGARDLESS...BY THURSDAY...A
BROAD SWATH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WILL SEE
RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 0.5 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ALONG
HIGHWAY 83 SEEING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR BETTER. BY THURSDAY
EVENING...THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF SOLNS DEVELOP A LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KS...WHICH SHEDS SOME DOUBT AS TO HOW MUCH
PCPN WILL FALL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...FAVORABLE LIFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT TO FACILITATE
MENTION OF LIKELY POPS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. BY MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SWRN NEBRASKA AS
THE H5 LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS INTO THE BLACK HILLS. BY FRIDAY
MORNING THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY NOONTIME FRIDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH
INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THANKS TO WESTERLY
WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE WEST OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE PANHANDLE...THEN CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY
EVENING...EFFECTIVELY LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND SHUTTING OFF ANY
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS IN MIND...TOOK OUT THE MENTION
OF PRECIP IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE COOL THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONAL RAIN. AFTER
HIGHS IN THE 50S THURSDAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE
LOWER 60S FOR FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...AFTER ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND A BENIGN COUPLE OF DAYS...A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NRN TIER OF STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS FEATURE WILL USHER IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SEEN THIS FALL
SEASON TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SRLY WINDS WILL FORCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WITH FAVORABLE
LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR PCPN...PRIMARILY IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN WEST OF A VTN-MHN-MCK LINE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER
08Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MARGINAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH
THE RAIN.
TURNING TO OTHER ISSUES...THE WIND PROFILER NEAR TIF SHOWS 46KT WIND
AT ABOUT 800 FEET AGL AND...NEAR RAP SHOWS 52KT. WITH SURFACE WIND
320-360 AT 5-10KT...SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO INCLUDE ANW...VTN...TIF AND MHN. BY THE TIME
THE STONG LOW LEVEL WIND REACHES BBW-LBF-OGA...SURFACE WIND WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE 25KT OR LOWER.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...BUTTLER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
UPPER LEVEL BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOSED LOW SPINNING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS DIVING
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES AROUND
80 DEGREES...NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
TWO MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. FIRST WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...THEN AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 15
HOURS...WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TOMORROW. OVERNIGHT STILL A
MILD AIR MASS OVERHEAD AND TEMPS TO BE MORE MID SEPTEMBER THAN MID
OCTOBER IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE
COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE IN AND HIGHS REBOUND TO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S...NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS BAJA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THE LOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. THE
ADDED MOISTURE WILL AID IN BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THEN THE LEADING WAVE WILL PUSH INTO
THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES
OF SHOWERS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH NEG LIFT INDEX VALUES AND EVEN
SOME POSITIVE MUCAPE....SO INCLUDED SOME ISOLD T.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID AND LONG TERM SOLUTIONS.
HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE MATURE
UPPER CYCLONE MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SHEARING TO
THE NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST FOCUS
WILL BE MID PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE MADE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE MID TERM WITH TEMPERATURES AND TIMING.
HAVE DROPPED THUNDER AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AS UPPER ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES. UPPED QPF AMOUNTS WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND 100KT JET STREAK DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF
THE TROUGH. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH GULF OPEN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS 0.85 INCHES THIS MORNING AT 193 PERCENT OF
NORMAL AND INCREASING TO 1.00 INCH THURSDAY MORNING WHICH IS
SEVERAL STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE INCLUDED MODERATE
RAINFALL IN GRIDS AND COULD POSSIBLY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. CONTINUED
COOL THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARMUP
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. DRYING OUT FRIDAY WITH SCHC MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN WEST OF A VTN-MHN-MCK LINE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER
08Z. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. MARGINAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH
THE RAIN.
TURNING TO OTHER ISSUES...THE WIND PROFILER NEAR TIF SHOWS 46KT WIND
AT ABOUT 800 FEET AGL AND...NEAR RAP SHOWS 52KT. WITH SURFACE WIND
320-360 AT 5-10KT...SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO INCLUDE ANW...VTN...TIF AND MHN. BY THE TIME
THE STONG LOW LEVEL WIND REACHES BBW-LBF-OGA...SURFACE WIND WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH THAT THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE 25KT OR LOWER.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
418 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE THE FRONT
WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AGAIN BY APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TO CLOSE THE WEEK OUT WITH TWO DRY DAYS. YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ORGANIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
UPSTREAM ACROSS MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO... A MORE
WIDESPREAD BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE OBS
SUGGEST THIS IS TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY MODELED...
AND IN FACT SOME OF THE NEWER GUIDANCE FROM THE EC... HRRR AND THE
NCAR ENSEMBLE HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE SOUTHWARD TREND. THUS EXPECT THIS
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE EASTWARD... ARRIVING IN WESTERN NY
/ NIAGARA FRONTIER REGION JUST AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FROM ABOUT THE NY STATE THRUWAY NORTH OVER
LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY
MIDDAY AND THE WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THE WAVE... WITH THE SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD... EXPECT A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WITH A DECENT PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON
DRY ACROSS WESTERN NY... ALTHOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA... WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 THIS MORNING SOUTH
OF THE FRONT / SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO / AND HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NORTH OF THE FRONT / EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION/ WILL START OFF A BIT COOLER THIS MORNING / UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50/ AND WILL ONLY SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S.
TONIGHT... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WILL INITIALLY INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...
STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW... AND THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT.
LOWS ONLY MANAGE THE MID 50S IN MOST AREA... WITH A FEW DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS NEAR 60. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT... A WEAK
WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA... WHICH WILL FORCE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
FOR THIS LINE... AND ALSO MENTIONED SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY BEING ADVERTISED. EXCELLENT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TAKING HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. INITIALLY SHALLOW COLD AIR AND LATE
OCTOBER SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH THE DRY AIRMASS PROMOTING
DEEPER MIXING.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE RADIATING NIGHT CONDITIONS WITH COOLER GUIDANCE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S...POTENTIALLY LOWER 30S FAVORED.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OVERHEAD. DESPITE THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INBOUND DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN UPPER CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST SHOULD BE DUE TO THE MERGING OF THE
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A FEATURE
THAT IS RACING ACROSS THE PACIFIC. AN INCREASINGLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET TO OUR WEST SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DIVERGENCE TOGETHER WITH
A WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN AT THE LOWER LEVELS FOR SLOWLY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WITH TIME. DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY DAY
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 50S OR NEAR 60 IN
DOWNSLOPING REGIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE NEXT PERIOD OF
INTEREST FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
RATHER LIGHT IN TERMS OF QPF DESPITE THE ABOVE NOTED MERGING OF TWO
FAIRLY PROMINENT FEATURES...SO WILL LEAN A LITTLE ON THE HIGH
SIDE...TOWARD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND RIGHT ON TARGET IN LINE
WITH WPC.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE
EAST LATER ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY OR LATER
HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH AT ABOUT THIS TIME THE MODELS START TO SHOW SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING... BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS NEAR KBUF/KIAG/KROC BETWEEN
SUNRISE AND NOON... AND NEAR KART AROUND MIDDAY. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL BUT KART THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT AT KART WILL
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE SITE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS
COULD RESULT IN MVFR VIS AROUND 4SM... BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
EXPECT A LULL IN RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS TONIGHT. AGAIN A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS... OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR EARLY WITH MVFR/IFR AND SHOWERS LIKELY AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY THEN MVFR/VFR AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY...BUT
MAY CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY
THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT
DUE TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA/ZAFF
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO REMOVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT TO
THE FORECAST AREA NORTHEAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC. THE OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT WAS
JUST APPROACHING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH LIGHT RAIN IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA TO QUICKLY END AS THE WEAKENING VORT MAX
ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
AS OF 2330 UTC...THE OCCLUDING FRONT WAS PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS
THE US HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND STRATUS IN
TRAIL. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA THIS EVENING IN ACCORDANCE WITH
RADAR TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE HRRR THROUGH ITS 22
UTC ITERATION
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY WEST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED OVER NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SEPARATES.
TONIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE STATE...SPREADING SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS EXIT...DECENT
SURFACE GRADIENT WINDS...AIDED BY AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT SHOULD
SUPPORT GUST WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH EAST...AND
LIGHT WINDS WEST WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY.
AFTER LOWS TONIGHT OF 35 NORTHWEST TO 45 SOUTHEAST...EXPECT HIGHS
WEDNESDAY FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015
THE LONG TERM IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A POTENT STORM SYSTEM
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
A COLORADO LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AHEAD OF
THE LOW THURSDAY EVENING. THE 12 UTC GFS/SREF/ECMWF ALL HAVE THE
CENTER TRAVERSING THE ND/SD BORDER BY FRIDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD
KEEP DEFORMATION BANDED PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY PROPAGATE OFF TO THE EAST
AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIPITATION BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. TOTAL LIQUID ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 INCHES TO 0.75 INCHES.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY
TRANSITION SOME RAIN TO SNOW. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM APPEARS COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S DURING THE DAY AND 20S/30S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS...ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE...WAS LOCATED OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT
ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KISN...WHERE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEARING WILL
OCCUR SLOWLY OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...SO EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
TO OVERTAKE ALL SITES BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
409 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THERE HAS BEEN MUCH TALK AND MANY WATCHFUL EYES ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND IT IS NOW HERE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SRN AZ EARLY THIS
MORNING...DRAGGING PACIFIC MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUR WAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL TAKE CARE OF THE CURRENT RAINSHIELD ACROSS NM/NW SOUTH
PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE AND MORE DURING THE DAY. THEN A REINFORCING
SHOT OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF BEELINES ITS WAY FOR THE SOUTH AND
ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO GO ALL IN ON THE
POPS FOR TONIGHT AT 100 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE LEND
CONFIDENCE ON GOING WITH THE FULL POPS. THE HRRR AND HI-RES ARW
BOTH WANT TO BRING THE GULF SURGE IN SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND BREAK
OUT THE CWA WIDE RAINFALL DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT 100 PERCENT THIS WILL HAPPEN WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT DEFINITE POPS ON THE CAPROCK AND LIKELY OFF BEFORE BREAKING
OUT THE DEFINITE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND 00Z. IF THE GULF
MOISTURE DOES INDEED MAKE A SURGE NORTH EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED...POPS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHER SMALL CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD...LOWERED HIGHS OFF THE
CAPROCK FOR CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO AS CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER.
FLOOD WATCH IS TO GO INTO EFFECT WEDNESDAY AT 18Z. AGREE WITH
THINKING OF ISSUING SHIFT SO IT WILL BE LEFT AS IS. QPF VALUES STILL
SHOW VALUES OF 1-3 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER STILL FOR DAYS 1-2...SO
PONDING...PLAYA OVERRUNNING...STREETS/ROADWAYS IN URBAN AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...
THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO EASE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS STILL
ARE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL ON
THURSDAY AND WITH MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE
TRAINING OF STORMS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DEEP
RESULTING IN A HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LOW AS EXPECTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SATURATED SOUNDINGS.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITIES WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN
700 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
AFTER A DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE A BRIEF RETURN FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE
BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THERE EXISTS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO HOW SHARP THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE. A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A BOOST TO SEE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES
SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ025-
026-031-032-037-038-043-044.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
74/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...06Z AVIATION UPDATE BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AROUND THE AUS
TERMINAL AT 06Z. THE STRATUS WILL QUICKLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT REACHING SAT 07Z-08Z AND DRT 09Z-10Z. WHILE INITIALLY
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING...CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO IFR CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT. HRRR AND MOS AT SOME SITES INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF LIFR CEILINGS AROUND AND AFTER SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOWER AT THE MOMENT AND NOT INDICATED IN
TAFS. IN ADDITION...PATCHY -RA AND A FEW -SHRAS COULD DEVELOP
AFTER 12Z. CEILINGS WILL BE REMAIN IFR THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z-16Z AT
AUS/SAT AND 17Z AT DRT...THEN SLOWLY RISE TO VFR. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRAS AND A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND INDICATED IN ALL TAFS WITH PROB30.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 84 70 82 69 79 / 40 30 60 70 80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 84 69 83 68 80 / 40 20 70 70 80
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 71 84 70 81 / 40 30 70 70 80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 81 68 80 67 78 / 30 30 60 70 80
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 71 84 70 82 / 40 60 50 60 40
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 83 68 80 67 78 / 30 20 50 70 80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 83 70 83 69 82 / 40 50 70 70 70
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 84 70 82 69 79 / 40 30 70 70 80
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 85 71 83 70 79 / 40 20 60 70 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 83 71 83 71 81 / 40 40 70 70 80
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 72 85 71 82 / 40 40 70 70 80
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...RUNYEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
933 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. SNOW LEVEL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 9000
TO 9500 FEET NORTH TO 10000 FEET SOUTH. BEST ACCUMULATION HAS
OCCURRED ABOVE 10000 FEET AND WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING THROUGH NOON.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY HELPING TO SHOW AN AREA OF LIFT
OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT BERTHOUD PASS ARE REPORTING EAST
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...SO STRONG UPSLOPE IS STILL IN PLACE.
EASTERLY WINDS FROM 750MB TO 600MB WILL DECREASE AND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH CAUSING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE AND END LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...SO STILL
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODELS ARE A LITTLE
OFF ON THE TIMING BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. AS THE 12Z
MODELS COME IN...WILL TRY AND PIN POINT WHEN AND WHERE THE NEXT
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ARIZONA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTN THRU TONIGHT AND WILL BE APPROACHING THE 4 CORNERS AREA BY 12Z
THU. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER NERN CO TODAY AND THEN
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY...PCPN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN NORTH OF I-70 AND NEAR THE WY-NE BORDER AREA. WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE IN PLACE AND SOME WK ASCENT IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF PCPN FURTHER SOUTH BY 12Z. BOTH
THE HRRR AND RAP AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO SO WILL KEEP IN HIGH POPS
FOR THE MTNS...FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS THRU MIDDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10000 FT ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A MIX DOWN TO 9000 FEET
OR SO.
FOR THIS AFTN UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN HOWEVER QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS STILL SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THRU THE AFTN SO WILL
KEEP IN LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER PCPN BY LATE AFTN MAY BEGIN TO
DECREASE FM NW TO SE AS THE BEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES SHIFT MORE TO
THE S AND SE. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS NERN CO.
BY TONIGHT THE BEST QG ASCENT WILL STAY MOSTLY TO THE S AND SE OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME WK VERTICAL VELOCITIES OVER THE PLAINS.
THUS WILL KEEP IN LIKELY POPS OVER THE ECNTRL PLAINS BUT WILL LOWER
THEM TO CHC ALONG MOST OF THE FRONT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE PALMER
DIVIDE. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SELY LOW LVL FLOW WILL KEEP IN
SOME HIGHER POPS OVER ZNS 34 AND 37 BUT ONLY HAVE A CHC IN MTN AREAS
NORTH OF I-70. MEANWHILE BY LATE TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEARS THE 4 CORNERS AREA WILL SEE A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN MID LVL
ASCENT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
SRN AREAS OF CWA BY 12Z ON THU.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
MODELS HAVE A WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS AT 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
THERE IS STILL A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEHIND IT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS MODERATELY STRONG QG UPWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGGED ON THURSDAY AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS
ALL DOWNWARD MOTION THEE REST OF THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WIND IS PROGGED ON THURSDAY...WITH
WEAK DRAINAGE PATTERNS THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THERE IS NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BY AFTERNOON...THEN DRAINAGE AGAIN
FRIDAY OVERNIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS PLENTY THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING. TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING SUNRISE...MOISTURE STARTS
TO DECREASE. FRIDAY DRIES OUT PARTIALLY...BUT THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
MOISTURE IN PLACE BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS
BETTER DRYING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THERE IS LIMITED CAPE
PROGGED LATE DAY THURSDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA. THERE IS EVEN LESS PROGGED LATE DAY FRIDAY AND ONLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THE MODELS ALL SHOW FAIRLY DECENT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
ON THE QPF FIELDS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. IT DECREASES
THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A TAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN MORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH EVEN SOME
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA FRIDAY EVENING. WILL NEED DECENT POPS ON
THURSDAY...30-70%S...EVEN A TAD OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL TAPER POPS DOWN BY MID EVENING AND MORE SO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL GO WITH 10-40%S POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FOR
TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-4 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S
HIGHS. FRIDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER AGAIN. FOR THE LATER
DAYS...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON SATURDAY...THEN WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE
INCREASE INTO MONDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT WITH THE TROUGH NOR IS THE COLDER AIR.
WILL KEEP MINIMAL POPS GOING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
RAIN...LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
18Z. CEILINGS AS LOW AS 300 FEET WILL LIFT AFTER 18Z BUT EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 3000 FEET THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY
IS EXPECTED 12Z TO 18Z THURSDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ033-034.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MEIER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
740 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPDATED SOME OF THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS THRU THU MORNING AND UPDATED
FIRE WEATHER GRIDS THRU THE SAME PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
A FRONT HAS MOVED THRU THE KCOS AND KPUB AREAS THIS MORNING...
BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. PCPN SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD...ALTHOUGH ECHOES ON RADAR ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN PLAINS BUT HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY REPORTS OF PCPN.
AN UPR LOW CENTER WL BE OVR SRN AZ TODAY...AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL OR NERN AZ BY 12Z THU. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
NORTHEAST SFC WINDS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
THE GFS...NAM AND NSSL 4KM WRF SHOW PCPN BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD
LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OVR THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HRRR DOES NOT SHOW PCPN BEING AS WIDESPREAD...MAINLY
DEVELOPING UPSLOPE PCPN ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN MTNS...AS
WELL AS THE REST OF THE MTN AREAS...AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS MAINLY DRY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WIDESPREAD OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAIN. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOW AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER PCPN MOVING INTO THE SWRN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE HRRR ONLY
SHOWS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
IS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS...WRF AND NAM. TEMPS TODAY WL BE
MUCH COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE.
FOR THIS EVENING THE NAM SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE PCPN ACRS MUCH OF
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WL STILL BE AT LEAST SCT CHANCES FOR
PCPN...THE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE PCPN
THAN THE NAM...ESPECIALLY NR THE ERN BORDER. DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVR THE
AREA...INCREASING PCPN COVERAGE ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...PCPN CHANCES DECREASE OVR WRN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERALL...WL KEEP HIGH POPS OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. IT IS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN
BULLSEYES MAY END UP...BUT THE FAR SERN PLAINS SEEM TO BE THE MOST
FAVORED AREA THRU THE PERIOD FOR SOME OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AS
FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE HIGHER MTN AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WL
PROBABLY SEE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH
LIFTING THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW...NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW
THEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATING RAIN SHOWERS...AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS SHIFTING EAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS JET CORE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH COLD CORE OF LOW SUPPORTING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS LOOK REMAIN BETWEEN 9K
AND 10K FEET THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST ACCUMS REMAIN AOA 10K
FEET...THOUGH COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SNOW MIXING DOWN TO AROUND 8K FEET
UNDER THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. WITH THE TAD SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ZONES THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PASSING NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM SENDS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BRIEFLY WARM TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST 00Z RUNS OF GFS
AND ECMWF...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE 06Z NAM...PIN POINTING TO
THE PIKES PEAK REGION WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING.
HAVE KEPT CURRENT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH MAY NEED TO
INCREASE COVERAGE IF LATER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS WETTER
SOLUTION. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISHING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER WEATHER IN THE OFFING FOR THE REST
OF SATURDAY.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WARMER DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
KALS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE KALS AREA
THRU THE DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BUT PCPN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE OR END FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS.
KCOS IS EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS
MORNING...WITH MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS AT TIMES BEING ON
THE LOW SIDE OF VFR. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING THRU TONIGHT.
KPUB SHOULD SEE LOW VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
A FRONT HAS MOVED THRU THE KCOS AND KPUB AREAS THIS MORNING...
BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. PCPN SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD...ALTHOUGH ECHOES ON RADAR ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN PLAINS BUT HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY REPORTS OF PCPN.
AN UPR LOW CENTER WL BE OVR SRN AZ TODAY...AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL OR NERN AZ BY 12Z THU. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
NORTHEAST SFC WINDS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
THE GFS...NAM AND NSSL 4KM WRF SHOW PCPN BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD
LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OVR THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HRRR DOES NOT SHOW PCPN BEING AS WIDESPREAD...MAINLY
DEVELOPING UPSLOPE PCPN ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN MTNS...AS
WELL AS THE REST OF THE MTN AREAS...AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS MAINLY DRY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WIDESPREAD OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAIN. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOW AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER PCPN MOVING INTO THE SWRN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE HRRR ONLY
SHOWS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
IS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS...WRF AND NAM. TEMPS TODAY WL BE
MUCH COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE.
FOR THIS EVENING THE NAM SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE PCPN ACRS MUCH OF
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WL STILL BE AT LEAST SCT CHANCES FOR
PCPN...THE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE PCPN
THAN THE NAM...ESPECIALLY NR THE ERN BORDER. DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVR THE
AREA...INCREASING PCPN COVERAGE ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...PCPN CHANCES DECREASE OVR WRN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERALL...WL KEEP HIGH POPS OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. IT IS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN
BULLSEYES MAY END UP...BUT THE FAR SERN PLAINS SEEM TO BE THE MOST
FAVORED AREA THRU THE PERIOD FOR SOME OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AS
FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE HIGHER MTN AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WL
PROBABLY SEE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH
LIFTING THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW...NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW
THEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATING RAIN SHOWERS...AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS SHIFTING EAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS JET CORE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH COLD CORE OF LOW SUPPORTING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS LOOK REMAIN BETWEEN 9K
AND 10K FEET THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST ACCUMS REMAIN AOA 10K
FEET...THOUGH COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SNOW MIXING DOWN TO AROUND 8K FEET
UNDER THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. WITH THE TAD SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ZONES THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PASSING NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM SENDS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BRIEFLY WARM TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST 00Z RUNS OF GFS
AND ECMWF...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE 06Z NAM...PIN POINTING TO
THE PIKES PEAK REGION WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING.
HAVE KEPT CURRENT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH MAY NEED TO
INCREASE COVERAGE IF LATER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS WETTER
SOLUTION. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISHING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER WEATHER IN THE OFFING FOR THE REST
OF SATURDAY.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WARMER DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
KALS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE KALS AREA
THRU THE DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE IN THE AREA
THIS EVENING...BUT PCPN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE OR END FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS.
KCOS IS EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS
MORNING...WITH MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS AT TIMES BEING ON
THE LOW SIDE OF VFR. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING THRU TONIGHT.
KPUB SHOULD SEE LOW VFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
15z/10am water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short-wave trough
tracking eastward across western Ontario/Minnesota...while a more
subtle wave is noted further south across western Iowa. A cluster
of showers/storms is ongoing across central Iowa...with isolated
showers extending further southeastward into central Illinois.
Models are not handling the current situation particularly
well...with the 12z NAM missing the Iowa convection completely.
Even the higher-res models such as the HRRR and Rapid Refresh that
show the Iowa convection are not picking up on the showers further
southeast. As a result...have relied mainly on satellite/radar
loops for the short-term forecast update. Have added slight chance
PoPs for showers/thunder across nearly the entire CWA through
early afternoon. Have increased PoPs northwest of the Illinois
River to go with scattered wording, as radar timing tools are
showing the tail end of the Iowa convection brushing this area
over the next 2-4 hours. Aside from the spotty showers...the main
weather story today will be the unseasonably warm conditions.
With a good deal of sunshine and continued southwesterly
winds...afternoon high temperatures will once again top out in the
upper 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
An MCV pushing across Illinois early this morning will keep showers
and isolated thunderstorms going past sunrise generally along I-72
and surrounding counties. Thunder potential should diminish toward
sunrise as the vort max becomes more elongated with less DPVA. Will
gradually diminish PoPs through mid-morning across our central
counties. Satellite and radar analysis shows our next shortwave
should arrive in NW Illinois this afternoon, triggering more showers
and a few storms NW of the Illinois river. Only utilized slight
chance PoPs for now, but localized areas could see a tenth of an
inch or more of rain if any storms develop. Elevated instability
appears sufficient for thunder, and SPC Day 1 outlook includes our
northern counties in General Thunder.
Temperatures today could be highly variable depending on what areas
see clearing the longest. Will stay the course with highs near
guidance numbers in the upper 70s to low 80s, as steady southwest
winds mix down a mid-level warm layer. Temps on Tuesday climbed
rapidly as clearing developed in the mid-high cloud cover, and today
should be similar. NW and SE areas should be on the cooler side of
that range due to showers early in the SE and late in the NW.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
Forecast increasingly problematic with short waves moving into the
region from the deep upper low settling over the desert SW. Models
not handling them well, and fumbling the QPF fields as a result.
Tonight dry in the models for the most part, but a front moving
through with another pulse of energy riding along it. Timing of the
pulse is in more question than the boundary. GFS is a little more
diffuse than the NAM and the ECMWF that move along later in the
overnight. Either way, keeping some chance and slight chance pops
in for the low confidence forecast. Same boundary settling in could
provide some focus for day time showers across the middle of the
state, and slights across the CWA to reflect it for the meantime.
Models are getting more and more assertive with moisture into the
region and increasing the showers and speeding up the timing of the
next system. The upper low over the SW finally kicks out and
through the Midwest bringing the best precip chances in the forecast
for this weekend...Friday and Saturday...moving up the time frame to
impact the western portions of the state by 18z on Friday. Have kept
the mention of thunder in the southern half of the CWA for Saturday
as the front settles into the area with the max heat of the
afternoon. Temps a little more seasonal going into the work week
with highs in the lower 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s. Timing
for the next wave/chance of precip varied in models by 24-36 hrs
Tues/Wed. Keeping the pops low for now, slightly lower than the
blends, just as a place holder and waiting for more consensus.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
The residual effects of a shortwave are being felt across central
Illinois early this morning, with spotty showers or sprinkles
drifting from west to east. Any chance of measurable rain appears
to have passed east of the terminals based on radar and satellite
trends. Therefore, no precip was included in any 12z TAFs.
A cold front will reach NW IL by 00z/7pm today, then track south-
southeast across our area tonight. Precip chances will increase
ahead of the front from NW to SE, beginning near PIA this
afternoon. Sounding analysis shows relatively limited moisture
during the times of peak lift, so no rain was included in the TAFs
at this point. However, based on the models missing the extent of
last nights rain and isolated storms, would not be surprised to
see a repeat tonight with the cold front.
Winds will generally remain southwest today, with gusts to 20-25kt
from mid-morning to mid-afternoon. Gusts will dissipate later this
afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens in the vicinity of the
cold front. Behind the cold front, winds will eventually shift
around to the north later tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1036 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
COMPACT MID LEVEL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PROGRESS INTO ONTARIO WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. INCREASING MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS
SE MICHIGAN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THE GENERAL COLUMN
DESCENT AND CONTINUED SOLID DEPTH TO THE LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
/BELOW 7K FT/ POINTS TO LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT
PRIOR TO SUNSET. THIS WARRANTS A REDUCTION IN POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. EXISTING THICKER CANOPY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD WILL
STEADILY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...UPSTREAM
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING AT LEAST PERIODIC INTERVALS OF OPEN
SKY ARE POSSIBLE. BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AT THE SAME
TIME INDICATE THAT HIGHS IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES OR JUST
ABOVE ARE STILL ATTAINABLE DESPITE THE SLOWER EARLY DAY RESPONSE
BENEATH THE CLOUDS. SIMPLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 700 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. EARLIER RAINFALL HAS ADDED SOME
MOISTURE TO THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH IS LEADING TO SOME MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS...THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
MAINLY PTK/FNT/MBS DURING THE MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE WILL
SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
FOR DTW...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND METRO DETROIT SHOULD
HINDER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS NOW
ADVANCING IN FROM THE WEST WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY ONLY
LAST AN HOUR OR TWO. S-SW WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. GUSTS SHOULD HOLD BELOW 25
KNOTS. THE GRADIENT WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING...WHICH MAY PREVENT WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH PAST
SUNSET.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 329 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WAS
RELATIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF YESTERDAY WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT TO OVERCOME
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. IN FACT...PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE
AREA WILL TOP ONE INCH THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS MID LEVEL FRONT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS OF 630Z...THIS SHORT WAVE WAS
LOCATED OVER METRO CHICAGO AND MOVING NORTHEAST. IT WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SE MI IN THE 12 TO 15 Z
TIME FRAME. THE SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THIS WAVE SUGGESTS THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE TOO WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE. REGIONAL RADAR ALONG
WITH THE RECENT HRRR SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MORE PROLONGED AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR WHERE SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENSUES FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE
OF THIS WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO NRN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIFT THE SFC WARM FRONT /NOW EXTENDING ACROSS
CNTL LOWER MI AND THE TIP OF THE THUMB/ NORTHWARD...PLACING ALL OF
SE MI WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE EXTENT OF RESIDUAL MID CLOUDS. THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES AND THE EXPECTATION OF
GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI TONIGHT /3-9Z/...DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
DEEP LAYER FRONTAL FORCING ACTING UPON A LOW-MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE
PRECEDING THE SFC FRONT AND SOME DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES THIS WEEK. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN TENDS TO KEEP MUCH OF THE ENERGY
AND FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT COLD FRONTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC REFLECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL RESIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET STREAM THUS
SOMEWHAT MILD TEMPERATURES...AT OR JUST BELOW LATE OCTOBER
AVERAGES...WILL CONTINUE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH BUT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL YIELD SOME DEGREE OF
SHALLOW CAA. MORE NOTABLY THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL TAKE A BIG HIT
ABOVE 900MB WITH PWATS FALLING TO BELOW A HALF INCH. THIS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY RESULTING IN SUNNY
SKIES MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 30S AS NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
SUCH A DRY AIRMASS.
THOUGH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION...COOL EASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWEST 100MB WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. CHANGES
THEN COME TO THE PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE SW CONUS EJECTING NE THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF LOWER MI BUT A LL JET SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MI
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS
TO START DRIFTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STRING OUT NE TO SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MI AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS
FURTHER NE. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP ONGOING THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK BUT MODELS INDICATE THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SO WE WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY DIVING THROUGH THE TROUGH DURING THAT TIME.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS LOW HAS PULLED
A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH THE REGION WHICH HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE AIR OVER THE LAKES KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS
TEMPERED...MAXING OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
PASSES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BURST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX BUT NOT BEFORE
VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL SEND THE HIGHER WAVES DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE TOWARD. WAVES POSSIBLE REACHING 4 FEET MAY BRUSH
THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE THUMB THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......MR
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
700 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.AVIATION...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. EARLIER RAINFALL HAS ADDED SOME
MOISTURE TO THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH IS LEADING TO SOME MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS...THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
MAINLY PTK/FNT/MBS DURING THE MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE WILL
SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
FOR DTW...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND METRO DETROIT SHOULD
HINDER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS NOW
ADVANCING IN FROM THE WEST WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WILL LIKELY ONLY
LAST AN HOUR OR TWO. S-SW WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. GUSTS SHOULD HOLD BELOW 25
KNOTS. THE GRADIENT WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING...WHICH MAY PREVENT WINDS FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH PAST
SUNSET.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 329 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WAS
RELATIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF YESTERDAY WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT TO OVERCOME
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. IN FACT...PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE
AREA WILL TOP ONE INCH THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS MID LEVEL FRONT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS OF 630Z...THIS SHORT WAVE WAS
LOCATED OVER METRO CHICAGO AND MOVING NORTHEAST. IT WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SE MI IN THE 12 TO 15 Z
TIME FRAME. THE SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THIS WAVE SUGGESTS THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE TOO WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE. REGIONAL RADAR ALONG
WITH THE RECENT HRRR SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MORE PROLONGED AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR WHERE SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENSUES FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE
OF THIS WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO NRN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIFT THE SFC WARM FRONT /NOW EXTENDING ACROSS
CNTL LOWER MI AND THE TIP OF THE THUMB/ NORTHWARD...PLACING ALL OF
SE MI WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE EXTENT OF RESIDUAL MID CLOUDS. THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES AND THE EXPECTATION OF
GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI TONIGHT /3-9Z/...DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
DEEP LAYER FRONTAL FORCING ACTING UPON A LOW-MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE
PRECEDING THE SFC FRONT AND SOME DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES THIS WEEK. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN TENDS TO KEEP MUCH OF THE ENERGY
AND FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT COLD FRONTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC REFLECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL RESIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET STREAM THUS
SOMEWHAT MILD TEMPERATURES...AT OR JUST BELOW LATE OCTOBER
AVERAGES...WILL CONTINUE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH BUT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL YIELD SOME DEGREE OF
SHALLOW CAA. MORE NOTABLY THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL TAKE A BIG HIT
ABOVE 900MB WITH PWATS FALLING TO BELOW A HALF INCH. THIS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY RESULTING IN SUNNY
SKIES MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 30S AS NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
SUCH A DRY AIRMASS.
THOUGH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION...COOL EASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWEST 100MB WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. CHANGES
THEN COME TO THE PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE SW CONUS EJECTING NE THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF LOWER MI BUT A LL JET SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MI
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS
TO START DRIFTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STRING OUT NE TO SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MI AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS
FURTHER NE. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP ONGOING THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK BUT MODELS INDICATE THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SO WE WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY DIVING THROUGH THE TROUGH DURING THAT TIME.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS LOW HAS PULLED
A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH THE REGION WHICH HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE AIR OVER THE LAKES KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS
TEMPERED...MAXING OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
PASSES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BURST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX BUT NOT BEFORE
VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL SEND THE HIGHER WAVES DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE TOWARD. WAVES POSSIBLE REACHING 4 FEET MAY BRUSH
THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE THUMB THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
705 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THE THE FRONT
WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AGAIN BY APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY TO CLOSE THE WEEK OUT WITH TWO DRY DAYS. YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE RISK OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ORGANIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE... A MORE WIDESPREAD
BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE OBS SUGGEST
THIS IS TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY MODELED... AND IN
FACT SOME OF THE NEWER GUIDANCE FROM THE EC... HRRR AND THE NCAR
ENSEMBLE HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE SOUTHWARD TREND. THUS EXPECT THIS
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE EASTWARD... ARRIVING IN WESTERN NY
/ NIAGARA FRONTIER REGION JUST AFTER SUNRISE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FROM ABOUT THE NY STATE THRUWAY NORTH OVER
LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY
MIDDAY AND THE WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THE WAVE... WITH THE SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD... EXPECT A
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WITH A DECENT PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON
DRY ACROSS WESTERN NY... ALTHOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE. IT WILL BE A MILD DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA... WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 THIS MORNING SOUTH
OF THE FRONT / SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO / AND HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NORTH OF THE FRONT / EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION/ WILL START OFF A BIT COOLER THIS MORNING / UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50/ AND WILL ONLY SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S.
TONIGHT... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO OUR NORTH
WILL INITIALLY INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...
STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHWESTERLY WARM ADVECTIVE FLOW. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW... AND THUS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT.
LOWS ONLY MANAGE THE MID 50S IN MOST AREA... WITH A FEW DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS NEAR 60. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT... A WEAK
WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA... WHICH WILL FORCE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
FOR THIS LINE... AND ALSO MENTIONED SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS...PERHAPS EVEN SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY BEING ADVERTISED. EXCELLENT
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TAKING HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. INITIALLY SHALLOW COLD AIR AND LATE
OCTOBER SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH THE DRY AIRMASS PROMOTING
DEEPER MIXING.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE RADIATING NIGHT CONDITIONS WITH COOLER GUIDANCE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S...POTENTIALLY LOWER 30S FAVORED.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING OVERHEAD. DESPITE THIS...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 40S.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INBOUND DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN UPPER CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST SHOULD BE DUE TO THE MERGING OF THE
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A FEATURE
THAT IS RACING ACROSS THE PACIFIC. AN INCREASINGLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET TO OUR WEST SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DIVERGENCE TOGETHER WITH
A WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN AT THE LOWER LEVELS FOR SLOWLY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WITH TIME. DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY DAY
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO THE UPPER 50S OR NEAR 60 IN
DOWNSLOPING REGIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE THE NEXT PERIOD OF
INTEREST FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
RATHER LIGHT IN TERMS OF QPF DESPITE THE ABOVE NOTED MERGING OF TWO
FAIRLY PROMINENT FEATURES...SO WILL LEAN A LITTLE ON THE HIGH
SIDE...TOWARD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND RIGHT ON TARGET IN LINE
WITH WPC.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE
EAST LATER ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FOR MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES IN LATE TUESDAY OR LATER
HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH AT ABOUT THIS TIME THE MODELS START TO SHOW SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS KBUF/KIAG/KROC
THIS MORNING / AND EVENTUALLY TO KART BY MIDDAY/ WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR VISBY REDUCTIONS TO ABOUT 4SM IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SHOWERS. AT KART... MOIST
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPORT A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND CIGS LIFT TO VFR.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STICKING
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT. AGAIN A FEW OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT / EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR EARLY WITH MVFR/IFR AND SHOWERS LIKELY AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY THEN MVFR/VFR AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY...BUT
MAY CREEP BACK UP TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY
THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT
DUE TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON SUNDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA/ZAFF
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.AVIATION...
AFTER BRIEF TS AND RA ACTIVITY AT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE MAIN EVENT OCCURS. CDS HAS BEEN
MOVED TO MVFR AT 1500Z FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING EAST ACROSS CASTRO
AND SWISHER COUNTIES THIS MORNING. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING
INTO ALL TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY DELAY IN
SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE COULD DELAY THIS DOWNGRADE OF
CATEGORY. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
IMPACT VISIBILITIES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THERE HAS BEEN MUCH TALK AND MANY WATCHFUL EYES ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND IT IS NOW HERE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SRN AZ EARLY THIS
MORNING...DRAGGING PACIFIC MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUR WAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL TAKE CARE OF THE CURRENT RAINSHIELD ACROSS NM/NW SOUTH
PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE AND MORE DURING THE DAY. THEN A REINFORCING
SHOT OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF BEELINES ITS WAY FOR THE SOUTH AND
ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO GO ALL IN ON THE
POPS FOR TONIGHT AT 100 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE LEND
CONFIDENCE ON GOING WITH THE FULL POPS. THE HRRR AND HI-RES ARW
BOTH WANT TO BRING THE GULF SURGE IN SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND BREAK
OUT THE CWA WIDE RAINFALL DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT 100 PERCENT THIS WILL HAPPEN WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT DEFINITE POPS ON THE CAPROCK AND LIKELY OFF BEFORE BREAKING
OUT THE DEFINITE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND 00Z. IF THE GULF
MOISTURE DOES INDEED MAKE A SURGE NORTH EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED...POPS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHER SMALL CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD...LOWERED HIGHS OFF THE
CAPROCK FOR CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO AS CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER.
FLOOD WATCH IS TO GO INTO EFFECT WEDNESDAY AT 18Z. AGREE WITH
THINKING OF ISSUING SHIFT SO IT WILL BE LEFT AS IS. QPF VALUES STILL
SHOW VALUES OF 1-3 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER STILL FOR DAYS 1-2...SO
PONDING...PLAYA OVERRUNNING...STREETS/ROADWAYS IN URBAN AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...
THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO EASE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS STILL
ARE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL ON
THURSDAY AND WITH MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE
TRAINING OF STORMS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DEEP
RESULTING IN A HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LOW AS EXPECTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SATURATED SOUNDINGS.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITIES WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN
700 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
AFTER A DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE A BRIEF RETURN FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE
BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THERE EXISTS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO HOW SHARP THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE. A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A BOOST TO SEE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES
SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ025-
026-031-032-037-038-043-044.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
74/01/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
444 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 439 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPDATED TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HI RES PROGS. AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION...NOT
MUCH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS. HOWEVER...HRRR SHOWS GOOD
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND AGREES WITH OTHER HIGH RES
MODELS THAT SHOW A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT OVER
THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR. BEST POPS
REMAIN OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS AND RATON MESA AREA
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH THE HYR TRRN. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WAVE
COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH THU MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE POPS INTACT
FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. HIGHLIGHTS LOOK ON TRACK. TOP OF PIKES
PEAK FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD IN LATE OCTOBER. ROSE
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ARIZONA OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...THERE IS PLENTY
OF ACTIVITY OVER NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD THE GENERAL IDEA OF DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO COLORADO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC...APPEAR TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE
FINER DETAILS. POP GRIDS HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE MODELS.
HIGHEST POPS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. STILL KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY OR DEFINITE CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
ON THURSDAY...AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO LIFT FROM THE LOW PASSING OVER THE
REGION. BY THE AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE DRYING BEGINNING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH.
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORIES DUE TO IMPACTS WITH THE FIRST SNOW OF
THE SEASON. WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...
ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING. SOME IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW
INCLUDE WOLF CREEK PASS BECOMING ICY WITH BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF A LOST HUNTER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE SNOWY WEATHER. --PGW--
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE NE INTO EASTERN WY THU NIGHT...ALLOWING MUCH
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE STATE ON FRI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP TO NEAR 70F FOR FRI. LOW
TEMPS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL THREATEN THE SLV AND HIGH
VALLEYS FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS STILL MAINTAIN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SAT
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S ON SAT...THEN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SUN.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY...
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN FINALLY
EXITS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS PLACES THIS UPPER FEATURE
WELL TO THE NORTH...FOR JUST A GLANCING BLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE EC OFFERS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOOK TO THIS FEATURE...PROVIDING
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES MON AND TUE. DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE EC FOR MON AND TUE...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS TIED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. BY WED THE EC PAINTS A RIDGE
OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW. BOTH SOLUTIONS POINT
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. SO FAR...VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN STAYING MOSTLY VFR AND MVFR AND ANTICIPATE THIS MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
SAN LUIS VALLY OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG THURSDAY MORNING. CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUDS
WILL HAMPER SURFACE COOLING. AT KCOS NORTH WINDS SHOULD HAMPER FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
ON THURSDAY...TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION KEEPING THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. --PGW--
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS PUEBLO CO
319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER ARIZONA OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...THERE IS PLENTY
OF ACTIVITY OVER NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING NORTHWARD. THE
MODELS HAVE HAD THE GENERAL IDEA OF DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW INTO COLORADO. HOWEVER...THE MODELS...
INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC...APPEAR TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE
FINER DETAILS. POP GRIDS HAVE THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE MODELS.
HIGHEST POPS ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MOVING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. STILL KEPT POPS IN THE LIKELY OR DEFINITE CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
ON THURSDAY...AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO LIFT FROM THE LOW PASSING OVER THE
REGION. BY THE AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE DRYING BEGINNING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH.
SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AND WILL
MAINTAIN CURRENT ADVISORIES DUE TO IMPACTS WITH THE FIRST SNOW OF
THE SEASON. WITH TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY...
ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING. SOME IMPACTS FROM THE SNOW
INCLUDE WOLF CREEK PASS BECOMING ICY WITH BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE REGION. THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF A LOST HUNTER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE SNOWY WEATHER. --PGW--
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE NE INTO EASTERN WY THU NIGHT...ALLOWING MUCH
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE STATE ON FRI ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...KEEPING THE
THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP TO NEAR 70F FOR FRI. LOW
TEMPS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL THREATEN THE SLV AND HIGH
VALLEYS FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS STILL MAINTAIN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND...SAVE FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS SAT
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE
60S ON SAT...THEN INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SUN.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY...
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN FINALLY
EXITS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS PLACES THIS UPPER FEATURE
WELL TO THE NORTH...FOR JUST A GLANCING BLOW TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE EC OFFERS A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED LOOK TO THIS FEATURE...PROVIDING
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES MON AND TUE. DECIDED TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE EC FOR MON AND TUE...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED POPS TIED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS. BY WED THE EC PAINTS A RIDGE
OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW. BOTH SOLUTIONS POINT
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. SO FAR...VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN STAYING MOSTLY VFR AND MVFR AND ANTICIPATE THIS MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
SAN LUIS VALLY OVERNIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG THURSDAY MORNING. CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUDS
WILL HAMPER SURFACE COOLING. AT KCOS NORTH WINDS SHOULD HAMPER FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
ON THURSDAY...TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION KEEPING THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. --PGW--
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1134 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
INCREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON KEEPING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL OVER THE REGION. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT BEST
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THE EVENING. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION COULD REMAIN DURING THE
EVENING ALONG INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. --PGW--
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPDATED SOME OF THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS THRU THU MORNING AND UPDATED
FIRE WEATHER GRIDS THRU THE SAME PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
A FRONT HAS MOVED THRU THE KCOS AND KPUB AREAS THIS MORNING...
BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. PCPN SO FAR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD...ALTHOUGH ECHOES ON RADAR ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACRS THE FAR SERN PLAINS BUT HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY REPORTS OF PCPN.
AN UPR LOW CENTER WL BE OVR SRN AZ TODAY...AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL OR NERN AZ BY 12Z THU. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
NORTHEAST SFC WINDS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATER THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
THE GFS...NAM AND NSSL 4KM WRF SHOW PCPN BECOMING QUITE WIDESPREAD
LATER THIS MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OVR THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HRRR DOES NOT SHOW PCPN BEING AS WIDESPREAD...MAINLY
DEVELOPING UPSLOPE PCPN ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ERN MTNS...AS
WELL AS THE REST OF THE MTN AREAS...AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS MAINLY DRY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WIDESPREAD OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAIN. THE WRF AND THE HRRR ALSO SHOW AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER PCPN MOVING INTO THE SWRN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE HRRR ONLY
SHOWS SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
IS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS...WRF AND NAM. TEMPS TODAY WL BE
MUCH COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE.
FOR THIS EVENING THE NAM SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE PCPN ACRS MUCH OF
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WL STILL BE AT LEAST SCT CHANCES FOR
PCPN...THE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT. THE GFS HAS A BIT MORE PCPN
THAN THE NAM...ESPECIALLY NR THE ERN BORDER. DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVR THE
AREA...INCREASING PCPN COVERAGE ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...PCPN CHANCES DECREASE OVR WRN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
OVERALL...WL KEEP HIGH POPS OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. IT IS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN
BULLSEYES MAY END UP...BUT THE FAR SERN PLAINS SEEM TO BE THE MOST
FAVORED AREA THRU THE PERIOD FOR SOME OF THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS. AS
FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE HIGHER MTN AREAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...WL
PROBABLY SEE BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS TRENDING A TAD SLOWER WITH
LIFTING THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW...NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO INTO THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW
THEN PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATING RAIN SHOWERS...AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS SHIFTING EAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS JET CORE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH COLD CORE OF LOW SUPPORTING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS LOOK REMAIN BETWEEN 9K
AND 10K FEET THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST ACCUMS REMAIN AOA 10K
FEET...THOUGH COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SNOW MIXING DOWN TO AROUND 8K FEET
UNDER THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. WITH THE TAD SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ZONES THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PASSING NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM SENDS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY...WITH MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BRIEFLY WARM TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLING THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST 00Z RUNS OF GFS
AND ECMWF...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE 06Z NAM...PIN POINTING TO
THE PIKES PEAK REGION WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING.
HAVE KEPT CURRENT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH MAY NEED TO
INCREASE COVERAGE IF LATER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS WETTER
SOLUTION. AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS DIMINISHING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER WEATHER IN THE OFFING FOR THE REST
OF SATURDAY.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WARMER DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2015
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING KEEPING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT ALL THE TAF
SITES. DURING THE EVENING...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
MOVES ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP FOG
OUT OF KCOS...HOWEVER...WITH WEAKER WINDS FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KPUB.
AT KALS...ANY CHANCES FOR FOG DEPENDS ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...AND CURRENTLY KEPT FOG OUT OF THE TAF.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068-073-075-080-082.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PGW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
514 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS OCCURRED BUT
IT WILL STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. BELIEVE LATE NIGHT FOG WILL
BE LIMITED AND MAINLY CONFINED TO SOME RIVER VALLEYS. THE SREF
GUIDANCE PLUS GFS AND NAM MOS INDICATED LITTLE FOG. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...REMAINING WELL
OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS AND STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXPECT OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONTROLLING THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER TERM. RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE MAKING IT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BELIEVE THE FORECAST AREA
WILL STAY DRY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TOMORROW.
OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE REGION BUT
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER...BY NEARLY
15-20 DEGREES...INDICATING THE NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE HAS
INCREASED. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE
IMPROVED CHANCES FOR FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING AGS/OGB.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF NC/SC AND UTILIZING THE CROSSOVER TEMP METHOD VSBYS
COULD FALL AS LOW AS 1/2SM AT AGS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
UPDATED THE TERMINALS TO HIT THE FOG HARDER AT AGS INCLUDING A
PREVAILING GROUP OF IFR VSBYS AFTER 10Z WITH POSSIBLE LIFR VSBYS
THROUGH 12Z. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF MVFR VSBYS AT OGB 09Z-
12Z. SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR OTHER TERMINALS BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING FOG AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN THURSDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...HC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
A vigorous short-wave trough currently tracking into the western
Great Lakes will help flatten the prevailing upper ridge across the
eastern CONUS and drive a weak cold front southward tonight. The
boundary is expected to become parallel to the upper flow and
eventually stall across central Illinois late tonight. Forecast
soundings continue to show an overall lack of deep-layer moisture
for the boundary to work with, so am not expecting much in the way
of precip as it approaches. The NAM is showing a totally dry
forecast tonight, while both the HRRR and Rapid Refresh suggest at
least isolated showers across the northern half of the KILX CWA.
19z/2pm radar imagery shows an area of dissipating showers across
eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois that will stay mainly north of
the area late this afternoon. Think there will be just enough mid-
level moisture present to warrant slight chance PoPs ahead of the
front tonight...mainly along/north of the I-72 corridor. Overnight
low temperatures will once again be on the mild side, with readings
remaining in the lower to middle 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
The stalled cold front over the area will slowly sag south on
Thursday but then become washed out Thursday night into Friday as
mid level ridging returns to the area with continued dry and very
warm conditions. However, this will temporary as another weather
system will push into the area Friday with a much better chance of
pcpn across the CWA. Pcpn should begin to move into western parts of
the CWA Friday morning, but spread across the remainder of the area
Friday afternoon through Friday night. Models in good agreement with
timing and location of this front through the end of the week and
have high confidence in the expected outcome. So pops will remain in
the likely category over the area Friday night and then in the
southeast on Saturday. The chance of pcpn will remain across the
rest of the area during the day Saturday as models have some
differences on the speed of the next area of high pressure moving
into the CWA. Most of pcpn will be just showers, but isolated
thunder will be possible Fri night. Temps through end of the week
and into the weekend will still be above normal across the whole
area.
The later part of the weekend will be dry with temps around to just
below normal. This dry weather will continue across the area into
the beginning of next week while temps will remain around normal to
just above normal in some areas. Toward the middle of the week,
another weather system will move into the area with another chance
of showers for Tue through Wed. GFS and ECMWF show some differences
on extent and timing of pcpn, but both agree that pcpn is possible.
Current indications are that behind this mid week system, temps
should drop to just below normal...if only for a brief period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
Southwesterly winds gusting to around 20kt will continue
throughout the afternoon before subsiding to less than 10kt by
sunset. Winds will gradually become light/variable as a cold front
sags slowly southward into central Illinois tonight. Front will
have very little low-level moisture to work with, so am not
expecting any widespread precip. Based on forecast soundings, have
introduced a mid-level cloud deck at around 15000ft as the front
arrives. Models generally take the boundary to near or just south
of the I-72 corridor before stalling it by Thursday morning. As a
result, will carry light/variable winds at the I-72 terminals,
with NE winds of 5-10kt at both KPIA and KBMI after 14/15z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1244 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
15z/10am water vapor imagery shows a vigorous short-wave trough
tracking eastward across western Ontario/Minnesota...while a more
subtle wave is noted further south across western Iowa. A cluster
of showers/storms is ongoing across central Iowa...with isolated
showers extending further southeastward into central Illinois.
Models are not handling the current situation particularly
well...with the 12z NAM missing the Iowa convection completely.
Even the higher-res models such as the HRRR and Rapid Refresh that
show the Iowa convection are not picking up on the showers further
southeast. As a result...have relied mainly on satellite/radar
loops for the short-term forecast update. Have added slight chance
PoPs for showers/thunder across nearly the entire CWA through
early afternoon. Have increased PoPs northwest of the Illinois
River to go with scattered wording, as radar timing tools are
showing the tail end of the Iowa convection brushing this area
over the next 2-4 hours. Aside from the spotty showers...the main
weather story today will be the unseasonably warm conditions.
With a good deal of sunshine and continued southwesterly
winds...afternoon high temperatures will once again top out in the
upper 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
An MCV pushing across Illinois early this morning will keep showers
and isolated thunderstorms going past sunrise generally along I-72
and surrounding counties. Thunder potential should diminish toward
sunrise as the vort max becomes more elongated with less DPVA. Will
gradually diminish PoPs through mid-morning across our central
counties. Satellite and radar analysis shows our next shortwave
should arrive in NW Illinois this afternoon, triggering more showers
and a few storms NW of the Illinois river. Only utilized slight
chance PoPs for now, but localized areas could see a tenth of an
inch or more of rain if any storms develop. Elevated instability
appears sufficient for thunder, and SPC Day 1 outlook includes our
northern counties in General Thunder.
Temperatures today could be highly variable depending on what areas
see clearing the longest. Will stay the course with highs near
guidance numbers in the upper 70s to low 80s, as steady southwest
winds mix down a mid-level warm layer. Temps on Tuesday climbed
rapidly as clearing developed in the mid-high cloud cover, and today
should be similar. NW and SE areas should be on the cooler side of
that range due to showers early in the SE and late in the NW.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
Forecast increasingly problematic with short waves moving into the
region from the deep upper low settling over the desert SW. Models
not handling them well, and fumbling the QPF fields as a result.
Tonight dry in the models for the most part, but a front moving
through with another pulse of energy riding along it. Timing of the
pulse is in more question than the boundary. GFS is a little more
diffuse than the NAM and the ECMWF that move along later in the
overnight. Either way, keeping some chance and slight chance pops
in for the low confidence forecast. Same boundary settling in could
provide some focus for day time showers across the middle of the
state, and slights across the CWA to reflect it for the meantime.
Models are getting more and more assertive with moisture into the
region and increasing the showers and speeding up the timing of the
next system. The upper low over the SW finally kicks out and
through the Midwest bringing the best precip chances in the forecast
for this weekend...Friday and Saturday...moving up the time frame to
impact the western portions of the state by 18z on Friday. Have kept
the mention of thunder in the southern half of the CWA for Saturday
as the front settles into the area with the max heat of the
afternoon. Temps a little more seasonal going into the work week
with highs in the lower 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s. Timing
for the next wave/chance of precip varied in models by 24-36 hrs
Tues/Wed. Keeping the pops low for now, slightly lower than the
blends, just as a place holder and waiting for more consensus.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
Southwesterly winds gusting to around 20kt will continue
throughout the afternoon before subsiding to less than 10kt by
sunset. Winds will gradually become light/variable as a cold front
sags slowly southward into central Illinois tonight. Front will
have very little low-level moisture to work with, so am not
expecting any widespread precip. Based on forecast soundings, have
introduced a mid-level cloud deck at around 15000ft as the front
arrives. Models generally take the boundary to near or just south
of the I-72 corridor before stalling it by Thursday morning. As a
result, will carry light/variable winds at the I-72 terminals,
with NE winds of 5-10kt at both KPIA and KBMI after 14/15z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Barnes
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1108 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...
327 AM CDT
THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WARM FRONT LIES TWO THIRDS OF THE WAY UP THE LAKE AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER NORTHEAST IL. SHOWERS ARE ONGOING
OVER THE LAKE AND SOUTH OF I-80. EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT EAST. IR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS TREND AS
CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. EXPECTING THE SHOWERS TO BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY 12Z/7 AM CDT. SHOULD SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S. RAISED HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE
ACROSS THE BOARD. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER NORTHERN IL
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHERN MN. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM NORTH
OF I-88 THIS AFTN.
TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS FORM
ALONG IT. HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN HOW SHOWERS WERE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EXPECTED TODAY...DECIDED TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. TO BE FAIR...GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WOULD
LIMIT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OVER
NORTH CENTRAL IL TO THE MID 50S SOUTH OF I-80.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER ONTARIO THURSDAY AND WE WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE HIGH. SKIES WILL CLEAR AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FUNNELS IN. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 ALONG THE LAKE WITH ON
SHORE WINDS...TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH OF A PONTIAC TO FOWLER INDIANA
LINE. RAISED HIGHS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80
AS GUIDANCE HAS 925 MB TEMPS ARND +14C TO +15C.
JEE
&&
.LONG TERM...
327 AM CDT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NEXT LOW MOVES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RAISED THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS AS WELL WITH HIGHS
AROUND 50 DOWNTOWN AND ACROSS CENTRAL IL. RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN MN. ONCE
AGAIN RAISED HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY SINCE WAA WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND WE
WILL BE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOW 60S ALONG THE LAKE TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH OF I-80. CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY HINDER MAXIMUM HEATING...BUT HAVE MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS.
THE LOWS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND DO NOT HAVE ANY
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE WRONG TIME OF DAY. AREAS SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST A TENTH OF MEASURABLE PRECIP FRIDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS IN HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS WILL END AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT SO LOWERED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY WITH THE COOLER UPPER LEVEL
AIR LAGGING A BIT. MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY BUT MID TO UPPER 60S SEEM REASONABLE. GUIDANCE KEEPS
PRECIP AND THE COOLER AIR WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FORMS OVER THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK AND GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY
WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
* CHANCE OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
AN UPPER WAVE OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THIS HANDLED OK AT
THE MOMENT AND SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THRU THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR SHOWERS AT RFD THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE THUNDER MENTION
AT RFD. WENT WITH VICINITY MENTION AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
FOR NOW...BUT MAY ALSO NEED TO ADD A TEMPO OR SHORT DURATION FOR
SHOWERS. CMS
PREVIOUS 12Z DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING
IS RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA. PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING UNDER
THE RAIN WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. EXPECT THE BACK
EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL SHIFT EAST OF RFD BY 08-09Z AND
THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS 11-12Z. SSW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE ABOVE 10 KT BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS INTO THE HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20 KT RANGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS
WISCONSIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH MID EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY
LATE EVENING AND TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE OUT VSBY BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR IN PRECIP
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. E WIND.
FRIDAY...VFR. SE WIND.
SATURDAY...CHC SHRA. MVFR PSBL. SW BCMG NW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. N WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. E WIND.
TUESDAY...SLT CHC SHRA. MVFR/IFR PSBL. E WIND.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
242 AM CDT
A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE AND
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
15 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WHILE ANOTHER
LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS...LIFTING ACROSS ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
304 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE WHETHER TO RE-INTRODUCE POPS AGAIN
EARLY THU MORNING. ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN
RIBBON OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRIGGERED BY SRN LOBE OF FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH SRN CANADA UPPER LOW. RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS
RESULTED IN SOME DECENT BUT BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA GUSTS. THIS
MOISTURE STAYS IN PLACE INTO THE NIGHT...BUT NRN STREAM LIFT IS NOW
GONE AND ANYTHING WITH THE AZ CLOSED LOW WILL MAINLY REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH 12Z. ECMWF AND GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY
PRECIP...HOWEVER MORE TIMELY HRRR AND RAP RUNS DO SUGGEST CURRENT
ELEVATED NE/KS PRECIP WILL OOZE INTO IA LATER THIS EVENING AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS SOMEWHAT. THUS HAVE TRIED TO BRIDGE THE GAP WITH
SPRINKLE WORDING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE
SOLUTION...PRECIP SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME AND REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH BASED.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEW MODEL PACKAGES...THE TIMING REMAINS SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO
BOTH THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ONLY MINOR CHANGE
APPEARS TO BE THE INTRODUCTION OF THUNDER POTENTIAL FARTHER NORTH AS
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO NOW SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
OVER MAINLY THE SOUTH. TRADITIONALLY...INSTABILITY LESSENS ONCE THE
LAYER BECOMES SATURATED IN COOLER DRIER AIR AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH
SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF THUNDER...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO MENTION.
OTHERWISE THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS THE SAME WITH A PARTIALLY
SPLIT FORCING REGIME...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE H850 JET AND BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. NONE THE LESS A
PERIOD OF HIGH POP WILL STILL BE REALIZED ON FRIDAY DESPITE THE
REALIZATION THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK TO BE ON TARGET
WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A
DECENT COOL OFF FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
BY SUNDAY. BEYOND SUNDAY THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF NEXT WEEKS PATTERN. BOTH THE GFS
AND EUROPEAN MODEL ARE SUGGESTING A LARGE STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
US WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS MAY PHASE INTO ONE LARGER
STORM DURING THIS PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS/EURO DEEPEN A DIGGING
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CONCURRENTLY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AND A SUBTROPICAL GULF COAST SYSTEM EDGING NORTHEAST WITH TIME
FROM TEXAS. LOOKING AT THE H500 FIELDS...IT APPEARS THAT THE EURO
HAS ALLOWED THE ENERGY OF THE LEADING WAVE TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH
MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE NORTHERLY BIAS WITH WEAKER
SYSTEMS. THE NET RESULT IS EITHER A MORE NORTHERLY STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE GFS OR A STRONGER SOLUTION FOR THE PLAINS IF THE EURO
MODEL VERIFIES. THOUGH WE ARE STILL 5 TO 6 DAYS AWAY...IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO CLOSELY MONITOR DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A STRONG FALL
SYSTEM NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA. DETAILS OF DAILY WEATHER WILL NEED
TO BE BETTER PARSED OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL...WILL MAINTAIN
A BLENDED APPROACH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY...AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY WEDNESDAY. IF THE EURO WERE TO
VERIFY...DAY TIME HIGHS BY THURSDAY WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 50
WITH STRONG WINDS AND PLENTY OF COLD RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...21/18Z
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
CONVECTION HAS EXITED TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK COLD FRONT WAS ALONG KCSQ-KDSM-KIIB LINE
AT 18Z WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SE WITH MINOR NW WIND GUSTS BEHIND
UNTIL SUNSET. CIGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER INTO EARLY THU
MORNING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
348 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BRINGING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN CHALLENGES ARE FREEZING PRECIP AND TEMPERATURES.
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRES MOVING SE ACROSS THE STATE
W/DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW DEWPOINTS
RANGING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PULLS TO THE E AND LOW PRES MOVES E
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
AFTER SUNSET AND SHOULD FALL BACK RATHER QUICKLY W/THE LOWER
DEWPOINTS. A WARM FRONT DEPICTED ON THE ANALYSIS MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SOME PRECIP TO BREAK OUT. 12Z RUNS OF THE
NAM/GFS AND GEM SUPPORT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP TO BE WELL W OF THE
CWA W/THE WARM FRONT. THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE RAP AND
HRRR 3KM MODEL SHOW A BAND OF PRECIP MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AIRMASS IS DRY PER THE 12Z UA ESPECIALLY THROUGH 700 MBS AND THE
COLUMN WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE, PRECIP
MIGHT TAKEN SOME TIME TO REACH THE SURFACE. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AFTER 2 AM ACROSS THE
FAR N AND W MAINLY W OF THE CARIBOU-PRESQUE ISLE REGION. ATTM, QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN 0.05" THROUGH 12Z. THE WINDOW
FOR THE FREEZING PRECIP APPEARS TO BE BRIEF AND NO MORE THAN 3 HRS
AT BEST. ATTM, ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND GIVEN
THAT GROUND TEMPS STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 40S, DECIDED AGAINST AN
ADVISORY. MIDNIGHT CREW DID A FINE JOB IN ADDRESSING THE FREEZING
PRECIP IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK(HWO)AND WILL UPDATE THE
OUTLOOK.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE WELL INTO THE 30S BY AFTER 8AM
(12Z) ALLEVIATING ANY FREEZING RAIN THREAT. LIGHT RAIN WILL BRIEFLY
END BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS N. THE REGION
GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR A TIME W/S WINDS INCREASING BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO BOOST WINDS UP GIVEN THE
0-6KM SHEAR BEING ADVERTISED AT AROUND 40 KTS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SURGE WELL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT W/WINDS GOING W AND THEN NW AND PICKING BACK UP.
ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND END LATER IN
THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE E. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
KICK IN LATE W/READING DROPPING SHARPLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL QPF
FRONT THIS EVENT WILL RANGE FROM 0.10-0.25" W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD, WINDY DAY FOR FRIDAY WITH THE WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY PRECIP, PATTERN RECOGNITION
SAYS THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT. NORTHWEST AREAS WILL BE THE COLDEST NOT ONLY BECAUSE THEY
TYPICALLY ARE THE COLDEST ON CLEAR, CALM NIGHTS, BUT ALSO BECAUSE
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NW MAINE.
A BIT WARMER FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
AND WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE
IN THE DAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12Z GFS IS A BIT
OF A FAST OUTLIER IN BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO FAR WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE SATURDAY, BUT DISREGARDED ITS FASTER TIMING BECAUSE OF IT
BEING AN OUTLIER WITH ITS OWN PREVIOUS RUNS AND OTHER MODELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RAIN MOVES IN AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING, THOUGH. COULD START ANYWHERE FROM ABOUT 9PM
SATURDAY TO NOON SUNDAY. SAME AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE
RAIN ENDS SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY
BE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SHOULD BE DRY BY THE DAY MONDAY AND COOLER, AND PROBABLY STAYING
DRY INTO TUESDAY. NEXT SHOT OF RAIN COMES AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A DECENT LOW PASSES TO OUR NW AS THE PROGRESSIVE
WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS. NO GOOD SHOTS OF SNOW IN SIGHT. PLENTY
OF COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF EACH SYSTEM, BUT IT SEEMS THE COLD
AIR JUST CAN`T QUITE MEET THE MOISTURE TO GIVE US A GOOD SNOW
EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH 2 AM AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO MVFR BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IFR EXPECTED FOR A BRIEF
TIME ON THURSDAY W/THE WARM FRONT AND SSE WIND. SOME -FZRA
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS MAINLY FOR KFVE W/MINIMAL
ICING. CONDITIONS GOING TO MVFR THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN VFR
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: PERHAPS SOME MVFR CEILINGS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY NORTHERN MAINE, OTHERWISE VFR. ALSO QUITE WINDY AND GUSTY
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPECTED FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING
INTO FRIDAY AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM. LLVL JET WILL BRING A
SURGE OF 20 KTS ACROSS THE WATERS ON THURSDAY W/GUSTS 25+ KTS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME
THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN COME BACK UP LATER THURSADY NIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WAVE HIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT BY
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING MAINLY DUE TO GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS. LIGHTER WINDS
AND SEAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. &&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOISY
MARINE...HEWITT/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRONOUNCED MID-LVL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. ASSOC SFC LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE
KEWEENAW WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH IRON COUNTY. A
BROKEN LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM AU TRAIN THROUGH GWINN TO NEAR IRON MOUNTAIN MOVING EAST.
TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A RISE-FALL COUPLET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST ADDING A WEST TO EAST ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT TO THE
GUSTS. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM CAA INTO THE
REGION...WILL ALLOW FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY REACH BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP MODEL PROGS WINDS AT
900MB OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WHICH COULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE
FROM INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAA. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
WILL FALL TO AROUND -2C OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE
CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST OVER THE EAST HALF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
ALONG WITH ISOLD TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING.
THU...IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRES LIFTING NE THROUGH QUEBEC...A SFC
HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NRN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH NW FLOW AND 850MB THERMAL TROF IN THE AREA TO
START THE DAY...EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THRU THE MORNING ACROSS
THE NRN AND ERN FCST AREA...AIDED BY OVERLAKE INSTABILITY WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -2C. LINGERING SFC TROF EXTENDING BACK OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL OVERLAKE INSTABILITY MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLD LAKE EFFECT -SHRA THRU THE MORNING
OVER THE ERN FCST AREA. EXPECT IMPROVING SKY CONDITION WEST BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY MID/UPPER 40S N TO LWR TO MID 50S SCNTRL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TODAY WILL KICK ENERGY OUT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS. THE RESULTING UPPER TROUGH WILL
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SAT...AND THE ROUGHLY 999MB SFC LOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS WRN TO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. MOST
DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS.
850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM 0-4C AT 00Z FRI TO 8-10C BY 00Z SAT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS THROUGH AND STRONG SLY FLOW RESULTS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. THESE WARMER TEMPS STICK AROUND UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -1C TO -4C
POST FRONTAL WITH NW LOW LEVEL WINDS...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT PRECIP INTO SUN MORNING. SYNOPTIC RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO THE FAR W AROUND 18Z FRI...THE CENTRAL AROUND 00Z SAT AND THE
FAR E BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SAT. ONLY EXPECT GENERALLY 0.2 TO MAYBE
0.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM. COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT.
MAY SEE SOME SOME LIGHT RAIN SUN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SNOW SUN
NIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
DISCONTINUITY.
THE FORECAST FOR MON THROUGH NEXT WEEK IS VERY
UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY THE TUE AND WED TIME FRAME AS MODEL SHOW A
SERIES OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A RESULTING SFC LOW
MOVING THROUGH. THE UNCERTAINTY COMES AS MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES AND RUN TO RUN AGREEMENT IS VERY
POOR. COULD SEE A SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW IN ALL DETAILS. WILL JUST RUN WITH A BLEND OF OFFICIAL
AND CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
KIWD/KCMX...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30
MPH ALSO LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AT
KCMX. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
RIDGING FROM THE WEST BRINGS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
KSAW...LIFR CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE
TIME AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE MIXING ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CIGS
WILL CONITNUE INTO THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
BUT THEN EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
RIDGING FROM THE WEST BRINGS IN DRIER AIR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
SE WINDS TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS
A LOW PRES TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A FAVORABLY
ALIGNED PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE AN ISALLOBARIC
BOOST TO THE WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT NW TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH THU AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. SE WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER
THE ERN HALF OF LAKE AND THEN NW WINDS COULD GUST NEAR GALE FORCE
SAT AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING WINDS BACK DOWN BLO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-251-264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1215 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.AVIATION...
PERIODIC INTERVALS OF THICKER MID CLOUD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER DRIER LOW
LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR A CLEAR SKY BELOW 6000 FT THROUGH THIS
TIME. MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AT TIMES TO 20 KNOTS PRIOR
TO SUNSET. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION 04Z-09Z
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND AN ACCOMPANY BRIEF REDUCTION IN CEILING PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TONIGHT. PROBABILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION. SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FOR DTW...WINDOW FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z-07Z.
NO DEFINED MENTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW POTENTIAL.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
* LOW IN THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1036 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
UPDATE...
COMPACT MID LEVEL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PROGRESS INTO ONTARIO WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. INCREASING MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY BEHIND THIS FEATURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS
SE MICHIGAN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY. THE GENERAL COLUMN
DESCENT AND CONTINUED SOLID DEPTH TO THE LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
/BELOW 7K FT/ POINTS TO LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT
PRIOR TO SUNSET. THIS WARRANTS A REDUCTION IN POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. EXISTING THICKER CANOPY OF MID LEVEL CLOUD WILL
STEADILY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...UPSTREAM
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING AT LEAST PERIODIC INTERVALS OF OPEN
SKY ARE POSSIBLE. BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AT THE SAME
TIME INDICATE THAT HIGHS IN THE VICINITY OF 70 DEGREES OR JUST
ABOVE ARE STILL ATTAINABLE DESPITE THE SLOWER EARLY DAY RESPONSE
BENEATH THE CLOUDS. SIMPLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS AT THIS
TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 329 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WAS
RELATIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF YESTERDAY WITH AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT TO OVERCOME
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR. IN FACT...PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE
AREA WILL TOP ONE INCH THIS MORNING AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING
DRAWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS MID LEVEL FRONT AS MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE. AS OF 630Z...THIS SHORT WAVE WAS
LOCATED OVER METRO CHICAGO AND MOVING NORTHEAST. IT WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SE MI IN THE 12 TO 15 Z
TIME FRAME. THE SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THIS WAVE SUGGESTS THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE ARE TOO WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE. REGIONAL RADAR ALONG
WITH THE RECENT HRRR SUGGEST THE FORCING WILL BE ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE MORE PROLONGED AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE M 59 CORRIDOR WHERE SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG.
THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ENSUES FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE
OF THIS WAVE TO THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A DEEP UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO NRN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIFT THE SFC WARM FRONT /NOW EXTENDING ACROSS
CNTL LOWER MI AND THE TIP OF THE THUMB/ NORTHWARD...PLACING ALL OF
SE MI WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE EXTENT OF RESIDUAL MID CLOUDS. THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ACROSS THE NRN OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES AND THE EXPECTATION OF
GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT FCST HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI TONIGHT /3-9Z/...DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
DEEP LAYER FRONTAL FORCING ACTING UPON A LOW-MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE
PRECEDING THE SFC FRONT AND SOME DEGREE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES THIS WEEK. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PATTERN TENDS TO KEEP MUCH OF THE ENERGY
AND FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BUT COLD FRONTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC REFLECTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE
REGION. WE WILL RESIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE JET STREAM THUS
SOMEWHAT MILD TEMPERATURES...AT OR JUST BELOW LATE OCTOBER
AVERAGES...WILL CONTINUE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH BUT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL YIELD SOME DEGREE OF
SHALLOW CAA. MORE NOTABLY THE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL TAKE A BIG HIT
ABOVE 900MB WITH PWATS FALLING TO BELOW A HALF INCH. THIS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY RESULTING IN SUNNY
SKIES MOST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 30S AS NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
SUCH A DRY AIRMASS.
THOUGH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON FRIDAY AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE REGION...COOL EASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWEST 100MB WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. CHANGES
THEN COME TO THE PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE SW CONUS EJECTING NE THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES. THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF LOWER MI BUT A LL JET SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN MI
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO LOOK FOR HIGH CLOUDS
TO START DRIFTING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE PRECIP BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STRING OUT NE TO SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MI AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS
FURTHER NE. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP ONGOING THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK BUT MODELS INDICATE THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SO WE WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY DIVING THROUGH THE TROUGH DURING THAT TIME.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WHILE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS LOW HAS PULLED
A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH THE REGION WHICH HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE AIR OVER THE LAKES KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS
TEMPERED...MAXING OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS TODAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
PASSES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BURST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE HURON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX BUT NOT BEFORE
VEERING TO NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL SEND THE HIGHER WAVES DOWN THE
AXIS OF THE LAKE TOWARD. WAVES POSSIBLE REACHING 4 FEET MAY BRUSH
THE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG THE THUMB THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MR
UPDATE.......MR
SHORT TERM...SC
LONG TERM....DRK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE
RESIDENT AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UPWARD... MOST NOTABLE AFTER SUNSET WHEN MIXING HAS CEASED.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN... AND GIVEN THAT VERY LITTLE OF IT FORMED THIS
MORNING... A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST IS FAVORED. THE LATEST
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DOES DEVELOP STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL AREA
INCLUDING OUR FAR EASTERN FRINGE LATE TONIGHT... WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE. OTHERWISE... APART FROM A FEW WISPY HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE
PASSING WEAK WAVE EARLY TONIGHT... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY UNDER
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS 36-48... WARMEST SOUTHEAST. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SPLITS... WITH THE
CORE OF THE WEAK HIGH SHIFTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... RESULTING
IN A TREND TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NC. THE
ANTICIPATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT... HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THAT NO ACTUAL COOLER AIR GETS THIS FAR SOUTH THROUGH THU NIGHT. MID
LEVELS REMAIN DRY... STABLE... AND BENIGN WITH RIDGING ALOFT. WHILE
THE COLUMN SLOWLY MOISTENS WITH PW VALUES CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD
NORMAL VALUES... WE`RE LACKING CONCENTRATED MOISTURE OR LIFT AT ANY
ONE LEVEL... AND SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. WARM HIGHS OF 76-
80. ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS OF 45-54... COOLEST IN THE OUTLYING AREAS OF
THE PIEDMONT AND WARMEST FAR EAST AND NORTH (DUE TO SOME STIRRING OF
THE SURFACE FLOW OVER NRN NC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT). -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN US THROUGH SATURDAY...EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING
ANY GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AND DIVERTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SUPPORT NORTH OF THE AREA AS A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS SUCH...A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
TOPPING OUT IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE...WARMEST ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
NELY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING...THAT COULD SUPPORT BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.
SATURDAY: MEAN RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WHILE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST AND OFFSHORE. ANY
MORNING STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY MAY BE SLOW TO LIFT AND SCATTER
OUT GIVEN PROMINENT MID-LEVEL INVERSION PER LATEST NAMBUFR
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MODULATE DAYTIME HIGHS...OR AT THE
VERY LEAST RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS
RANGING FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT TO MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA LATE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE THE GULF
REMAINS BLOCKED...MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE
BETTER WITH PWATS INCREASING TO ~1.5" WITH MODELS ALSO INDICATING
WEAK DPVA TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN/INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES RISING TO 1380-1385M AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTHWEST TO MID 70S EAST. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE IN THE 50S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A STRONG +1030MB SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING
ALOFT...UNDERNEATH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO START THE WORK
WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE MS VALLEY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING CENTRAL NC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO COVERING THE
REGION... WITH DRY AND SINKING AIR LEADING TO VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER... AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT
POSSIBLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT
AGL LATE TONIGHT (07Z-11Z) AT RWI/FAY... BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A LOWER RISK OF FOG/STRATUS IN RECENT RUNS... PLUS THE LATEST
HRRR KEEPS ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO OUR EAST OVER COASTAL SECTIONS
OF NC. WILL INCLUDE JUST A TEMPO MENTION AT FAY/RWI FOR NOW. WINDS
AT ALL SITES WILL STAY GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 5000 FT
AGL.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD. A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT... WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND LIFT BACK NORTH SAT... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SAT
INTO SUN. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND
STALL OUT THROUGH MON... BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS... ALTHOUGH SHOWERS CHANCES REMAIN SMALL. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE
RESIDENT AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UPWARD... MOST NOTABLE AFTER SUNSET WHEN MIXING HAS CEASED.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN... AND GIVEN THAT VERY LITTLE OF IT FORMED THIS
MORNING... A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST IS FAVORED. THE LATEST
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DOES DEVELOP STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL AREA
INCLUDING OUR FAR EASTERN FRINGE LATE TONIGHT... WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE. OTHERWISE... APART FROM A FEW WISPY HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE
PASSING WEAK WAVE EARLY TONIGHT... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY UNDER
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS 36-48... WARMEST SOUTHEAST. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
CONTINUED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. SUBTLE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SPLITS... WITH THE
CORE OF THE WEAK HIGH SHIFTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS... RESULTING
IN A TREND TO LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NC. THE
ANTICIPATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MIDATLANTIC LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT... HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THAT NO ACTUAL COOLER AIR GETS THIS FAR SOUTH THROUGH THU NIGHT. MID
LEVELS REMAIN DRY... STABLE... AND BENIGN WITH RIDGING ALOFT. WHILE
THE COLUMN SLOWLY MOISTENS WITH PW VALUES CREEPING UPWARD TOWARD
NORMAL VALUES... WE`RE LACKING CONCENTRATED MOISTURE OR LIFT AT ANY
ONE LEVEL... AND SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. WARM HIGHS OF 76-
80. ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS OF 45-54... COOLEST IN THE OUTLYING AREAS OF
THE PIEDMONT AND WARMEST FAR EAST AND NORTH (DUE TO SOME STIRRING OF
THE SURFACE FLOW OVER NRN NC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT). -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...
A DRY TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD IN BACKDOOR
FASHION AND THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE DAY TO DAY TREND WITH THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE FOR A
MORE DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS... HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS
AREAWIDE FOR FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NE TO
NEAR 80 SW. A BAND OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT... THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THUS... DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE THE CLOUD
COVER SPREAD OUT/THICKEN AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH
A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT... WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S NE TO THE LOWER 50S W.
MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA TO START THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH
EASTWARD AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA... WITH ONLY ANOTHER TRIALING FRONT APPROACHING/MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN PUSH FROM THE
NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... AS A 1030-1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK... WE
COULD SEE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOR
NOW... WILL JUST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK... UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN A GIVEN TIME
FRAME... WHICH MAY BE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME .
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY... WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING CENTRAL NC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO COVERING THE
REGION... WITH DRY AND SINKING AIR LEADING TO VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER... AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT
POSSIBLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT
AGL LATE TONIGHT (07Z-11Z) AT RWI/FAY... BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A LOWER RISK OF FOG/STRATUS IN RECENT RUNS... PLUS THE LATEST
HRRR KEEPS ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO OUR EAST OVER COASTAL SECTIONS
OF NC. WILL INCLUDE JUST A TEMPO MENTION AT FAY/RWI FOR NOW. WINDS
AT ALL SITES WILL STAY GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 5000 FT
AGL.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD. A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT... WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND LIFT BACK NORTH SAT... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SAT
INTO SUN. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND
STALL OUT THROUGH MON... BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS... ALTHOUGH SHOWERS CHANCES REMAIN SMALL. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
240 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE
RESIDENT AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MODIFY WITH DEWPOINTS SLOWLY
CREEPING UPWARD... MOST NOTABLE AFTER SUNSET WHEN MIXING HAS CEASED.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON FORMATION OF ANY FOG/STRATUS IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN... AND GIVEN THAT VERY LITTLE OF IT FORMED THIS
MORNING... A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST IS FAVORED. THE LATEST
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DOES DEVELOP STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE COASTAL AREA
INCLUDING OUR FAR EASTERN FRINGE LATE TONIGHT... WHICH APPEARS
REASONABLE. OTHERWISE... APART FROM A FEW WISPY HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE
PASSING WEAK WAVE EARLY TONIGHT... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY UNDER
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS 36-48... WARMEST SOUTHEAST. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 AM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER RIDGE UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION IN RESPONSE TO A S/W EXITING THE
GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING NEWD FROM THE DESERT SW
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHIFT IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN OUR FLOW VEERING TO A NWLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL AID TO
DRIVE A SFC COLD FRONT SWD TOWARD CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT. OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OUR FLOW WILL BECOME WEST-SWLY...ADVECTING A
VERY WARM AIR MASS CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NC. THIS WARMER AIR MASS WILL PUSH THURSDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTH AND WEST POSSIBLY
HITTING 80 DEGREES. A LIGHT SFC WIND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AID TO KEEP
THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE STIRRED...RESULTING IN MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS
(WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS). MIN TEMPS NEAR 50-LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY...
A DRY TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD IN BACKDOOR
FASHION AND THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE DAY TO DAY TREND WITH THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE FOR A
MORE DELAYED FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS... HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS
AREAWIDE FOR FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NE TO
NEAR 80 SW. A BAND OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT... THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW WITH AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THUS... DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE THE CLOUD
COVER SPREAD OUT/THICKEN AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA BENEATH
A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT... WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE WARMEST OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT LOWS SATURDAY MORNING TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S NE TO THE LOWER 50S W.
MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA TO START THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH
EASTWARD AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE
ASSOCIATED S/W ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA... WITH ONLY ANOTHER TRIALING FRONT APPROACHING/MOVING INTO THE
REGION LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN PUSH FROM THE
NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... AS A 1030-1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC. AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK... WE
COULD SEE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOR
NOW... WILL JUST CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK... UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN A GIVEN TIME
FRAME... WHICH MAY BE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME .
TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY... WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING CENTRAL NC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO COVERING THE
REGION... WITH DRY AND SINKING AIR LEADING TO VERY LITTLE CLOUD
COVER... AND NO RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT
POSSIBLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 1000-1500 FT
AGL LATE TONIGHT (07Z-11Z) AT RWI/FAY... BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A LOWER RISK OF FOG/STRATUS IN RECENT RUNS... PLUS THE LATEST
HRRR KEEPS ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO OUR EAST OVER COASTAL SECTIONS
OF NC. WILL INCLUDE JUST A TEMPO MENTION AT FAY/RWI FOR NOW. WINDS
AT ALL SITES WILL STAY GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 5000 FT
AGL.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD. A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRI AND FRI
NIGHT... WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN
AND LIFT BACK NORTH SAT... AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SAT
INTO SUN. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND
STALL OUT THROUGH MON... BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS... ALTHOUGH SHOWERS CHANCES REMAIN SMALL. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
645 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MILD SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY AND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
TONIGHT. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY FAIR WEATHER...WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH OHIO VALLEY IN ZONAL FLOW. VIRGA INDICATED
VIA REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...BUT SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE PREVENTING ANYTHING FROM REACHING
THE GROUND.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
BUT IT WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PREFRONTAL SHOWERS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THE LATEST HRRR HAS SHOWERS BEGINNING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NW MTNS BEFORE DAWN. THIS SHOULD CORRESPOND WITH A
THICKENING DECK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.
SO THE HRRR SOLUTION OF A LINE OF SCTD SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS IS ACCEPTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH A MDT DIP IN TEMPS OF SEVERAL TO PERHAPS 10 DEG F
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO AT
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THOUGH THE TEMP DROP IMMEDIATELY IN THE
WAKE OF THE CFROPA WILL BE MORE MUTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE SE ZONES...WHERE DOWNSLOPING/ADIABATIC WARMING
OF THE LIGHT TO MDT NNWRLY FLOW WILL OCCUR.
PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH IN MOST
PLACES...THOUGH WITH PWATS THERE COULD BE SPOTS OF ISOLATED
SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NW DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODERATELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WITH A TROF OVER THE
WESTERN U.S AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NWD
INTO THE EASTERN U.S...IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEK...THEN TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A DEEP NRN STREAM TROF DEVELOPS NORTH OF HUDSON BAY.
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE SQUASHED DOWN BY
SEVERAL NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES MOVING QUICKLY EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL
COLD FRONTS DROPPING TOWARD THE REGION. A RATHER STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ACCOMPANIED BY BKN-OVC SKIES AND A FEW SHOWERS AS
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT
/10-15F COOLER THAN THU/ WITH 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY TO NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY.
ANOTHER CFRONT IS SHOWN BY A GEFS/EC BLEND TO CROSS THE STATE LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE SAT NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER
THAT...BUT GENERAL TREND OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUN-MON INTO
TUE EVEN WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER. BY
MIDWEEK...COULD BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTING NE ACROSS TH
GLAKES THAT MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. THE NRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE WILL
SEE SCT-BKN CIGS AROUND 10KFT WITH SCT CI OVER THE SRN 2/3 WITH
BASES 15-25KFT AGL. LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTH
OF THE PA/NY BORDER. ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT TRAILING LOW PRES
MOVG THRU SERN CANADA WILL LIKELY BRING SCT SHOWERS TO THE
AIRSPACE ESP NRN SITES...WITH LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN
TERMINALS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRES RETURNS WDSPRD VFR CONDS ON
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE RETREATING OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LKLY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AIRSPACE SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SCT SHOWERS LKLY WITH CFROPA. SFC WIND GUSTS 15-25KTS FROM
220-260.
FRI-SAT...VFR. PATCHY A.M. FOG.
SAT NGT-SUN...CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH CFROPA...ENDING BY SUN NGT.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/CERU
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/CERU
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
559 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
...SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
PANHANDLE REGION. AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH MORE OCCURRING. HAVE UPDATED POP AND QPF
AMOUNTS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
BIEDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE LONG ADVERTISED INGREDIENTS FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT HAS ARRIVED
IN THE PANHANDLE REGION. THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS
SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. PRESENT
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CAPE VALUES ARE APPROXIMATELY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE PRESENT LINE OF STORMS...WITH ROUGHLY 45 TO 50 KTS OF
SHEAR AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE LINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AS THESE
STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS & OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THAT
ISOLATED HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED MAY OCCUR. SEVERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
CURTAILED MOSTLY DUE TO THE LLJ BEING PERPENDICULAR TO STORM
MOTION...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES OVER THE REGION...THE PROGRESSION
OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO HASTEN. THE BEST WINDOW FOR
IMPACTS DUE TO THESE STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROGGED LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION. OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS LINE OF STORMS CLEARS THE
REGION...STORMS SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED IN NATURE AND END BY SUNSET
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER THE WEATHER SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PASS
THROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ONE ON TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS ABOUT THE IMPACTS OF THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE HELD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
BIEDA
AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS FORECASTED. LATEST THINKING IS THAT SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS BTWN 21/18Z THRU ABOUT
22/05Z. MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. BTWN 22/05Z THRU
22/16Z...A SQUALL LINE IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR CIG AND VIS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS MAY
START TO IMPROVE AFT 22/16Z. TAF AMENDMENTS WILL BE LIKELY TO REFINE
TIMING OF STORMS AND IMPACTS...THOUGH THIS DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE
UPDATED FOR THEM.
BIEDA
HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CONVECTION HAS FORMED ACROSS
THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
LINE OF STORMS...ALONG WITH PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE 40-50 KT
LLJ...SUGGESTS THAT TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS
TECH WRF MODELS SUPPORTS THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE
BETWEEN 10 PM THROUGH 6 AM...WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES...OWING TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.
ONCE THIS LINE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...THERE MAY BE SOME
FORMATION BEHIND THE LINE TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AS THE
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS WILL
INVOLVE DISRUPTION TO INTERSTATE OR URBAN TRAVEL ALONG WITH MUDDY
BACKCOUNTRY ROADS. THE HIGH AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IN A CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS
PRONE TO IT.
BIEDA
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL...SHERMAN.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEAVER.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.
&&
$$
98/16
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
403 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE LONG ADVERTISED INGREDIENTS FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT HAS ARRIVED
IN THE PANHANDLE REGION. THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS
SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. PRESENT
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CAPE VALUES ARE APPROXIMATELY 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE PRESENT LINE OF STORMS...WITH ROUGHLY 45 TO 50 KTS OF
SHEAR AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE LINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AS THESE
STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS & OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THAT
ISOLATED HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED MAY OCCUR. SEVERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
CURTAILED MOSTLY DUE TO THE LLJ BEING PERPENDICULAR TO STORM
MOTION...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES OVER THE REGION...THE PROGRESSION
OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO HASTEN. THE BEST WINDOW FOR
IMPACTS DUE TO THESE STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROGGED LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THIS
DISCUSSION. OTHERWISE...ONCE THIS LINE OF STORMS CLEARS THE
REGION...STORMS SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED IN NATURE AND END BY SUNSET
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER THE WEATHER SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MAY PASS
THROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER ONE ON TUESDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS ABOUT THE IMPACTS OF THE
POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE HELD WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
BIEDA
&&
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...18Z TAFS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS FORECASTED. LATEST THINKING IS THAT SOUTH TO NORTH MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS BTWN 21/18Z THRU ABOUT
22/05Z. MANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. BTWN 22/05Z THRU
22/16Z...A SQUALL LINE IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR TO IFR CIG AND VIS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS MAY
START TO IMPROVE AFT 22/16Z. TAF AMENDMENTS WILL BE LIKELY TO REFINE
TIMING OF STORMS AND IMPACTS...THOUGH THIS DISCUSSION WILL NOT BE
UPDATED FOR THEM.
BIEDA
&&
.HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. CONVECTION HAS FORMED ACROSS
THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
LINE OF STORMS...ALONG WITH PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE 40-50 KT
LLJ...SUGGESTS THAT TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS
TECH WRF MODELS SUPPORTS THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE
BETWEEN 10 PM THROUGH 6 AM...WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES...OWING TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF.
ONCE THIS LINE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...THERE MAY BE SOME
FORMATION BEHIND THE LINE TO CONTINUE THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.
AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. AS THE
EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS WILL
INVOLVE DISRUPTION TO INTERSTATE OR URBAN TRAVEL ALONG WITH MUDDY
BACKCOUNTRY ROADS. THE HIGH AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IN A CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN AREAS
PRONE TO IT.
BIEDA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 68 57 65 54 74 / 100 100 70 30 5
BEAVER OK 71 57 67 54 73 / 70 100 90 40 5
BOISE CITY OK 63 50 61 46 69 / 100 100 60 10 10
BORGER TX 72 58 67 55 74 / 90 100 80 30 5
BOYS RANCH TX 68 56 67 50 72 / 100 100 50 20 5
CANYON TX 65 57 65 53 73 / 100 100 60 30 5
CLARENDON TX 71 58 65 55 77 / 80 100 90 40 5
DALHART TX 65 53 65 49 71 / 100 100 50 20 5
GUYMON OK 67 55 66 51 73 / 90 100 80 20 5
HEREFORD TX 65 56 67 51 73 / 100 100 40 20 5
LIPSCOMB TX 76 61 66 56 75 / 50 100 90 50 5
PAMPA TX 72 58 66 55 75 / 80 100 90 30 5
SHAMROCK TX 75 61 66 57 77 / 50 100 90 60 10
WELLINGTON TX 77 62 67 58 78 / 60 100 90 60 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
RANDALL...SHERMAN.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEAVER.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.
&&
$$
98/18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1231 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED WX GRIDS TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. CURRENTLY SKIES HAVE THINNED OUT GREATLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHILE MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK REMAIN COVERED UNDER
STRATUS. WHILE CONVECTION IS ONGOING NEAR THE CWA...A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO HOME THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR
THE TRANSITION AREA OF BEING CLOUDY AND CLEAR DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. A `BOUNDARY` HAS SHOWN UP ON RADAR REFLECTIVITY OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR LUBBOCK AS A RESULT OF DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. THE MAIN THREATS THAT ARE OF CONCERN ASIDE FROM HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
ALDRICH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT OF A MIXED BAG UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING. SKIES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART CLEARED AT CDS LEAVING VFR
FLIGHT RULES. CIGS HAVE ALSO RAISED AT PVW AND ARE SHOWING SIGNS
OF SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT LBB. ALL CIGS AT THE MOMENT REMAIN AT
VFR. OF QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR TERMINALS PVW AND LBB THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY LAST INTO THE
EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS. THE THREAT SHOULD MOVE TOWARDS CDS WITHIN
AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER STORMS DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 58 KTS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER
00Z AND LAST INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.
ALDRICH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
AVIATION...
AFTER BRIEF TS AND RA ACTIVITY AT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE MAIN EVENT OCCURS. CDS HAS BEEN
MOVED TO MVFR AT 1500Z FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING EAST ACROSS CASTRO
AND SWISHER COUNTIES THIS MORNING. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING
INTO ALL TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY DELAY IN
SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE COULD DELAY THIS DOWNGRADE OF
CATEGORY. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
IMPACT VISIBILITIES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THERE HAS BEEN MUCH TALK AND MANY WATCHFUL EYES ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND IT IS NOW HERE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SRN AZ EARLY THIS
MORNING...DRAGGING PACIFIC MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUR WAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL TAKE CARE OF THE CURRENT RAINSHIELD ACROSS NM/NW SOUTH
PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE AND MORE DURING THE DAY. THEN A REINFORCING
SHOT OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF BEELINES ITS WAY FOR THE SOUTH AND
ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO GO ALL IN ON THE
POPS FOR TONIGHT AT 100 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE LEND
CONFIDENCE ON GOING WITH THE FULL POPS. THE HRRR AND HI-RES ARW
BOTH WANT TO BRING THE GULF SURGE IN SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND BREAK
OUT THE CWA WIDE RAINFALL DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT 100 PERCENT THIS WILL HAPPEN WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT DEFINITE POPS ON THE CAPROCK AND LIKELY OFF BEFORE BREAKING
OUT THE DEFINITE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND 00Z. IF THE GULF
MOISTURE DOES INDEED MAKE A SURGE NORTH EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED...POPS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHER SMALL CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD...LOWERED HIGHS OFF THE
CAPROCK FOR CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO AS CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER.
FLOOD WATCH IS TO GO INTO EFFECT WEDNESDAY AT 18Z. AGREE WITH
THINKING OF ISSUING SHIFT SO IT WILL BE LEFT AS IS. QPF VALUES STILL
SHOW VALUES OF 1-3 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER STILL FOR DAYS 1-2...SO
PONDING...PLAYA OVERRUNNING...STREETS/ROADWAYS IN URBAN AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...
THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO EASE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS STILL
ARE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL ON
THURSDAY AND WITH MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE
TRAINING OF STORMS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DEEP
RESULTING IN A HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LOW AS EXPECTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SATURATED SOUNDINGS.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITIES WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN
700 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
AFTER A DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE A BRIEF RETURN FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE
BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THERE EXISTS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO HOW SHARP THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE. A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A BOOST TO SEE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES
SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-043-044.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-
033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
51/29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1212 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT OF A MIXED BAG UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING. SKIES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART CLEARED AT CDS LEAVING VFR
FLIGHT RULES. CIGS HAVE ALSO RAISED AT PVW AND ARE SHOWING SIGNS
OF SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AT LBB. ALL CIGS AT THE MOMENT REMAIN AT
VFR. OF QUESTION IS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR TERMINALS PVW AND LBB THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY LAST INTO THE
EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS. THE THREAT SHOULD MOVE TOWARDS CDS WITHIN
AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER STORMS DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 58 KTS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER
00Z AND LAST INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.
ALDRICH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
AVIATION...
AFTER BRIEF TS AND RA ACTIVITY AT TERMINALS THIS MORNING...THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE MAIN EVENT OCCURS. CDS HAS BEEN
MOVED TO MVFR AT 1500Z FOR THE ACTIVITY MOVING EAST ACROSS CASTRO
AND SWISHER COUNTIES THIS MORNING. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS MOVING
INTO ALL TERMINALS BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY DELAY IN
SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE COULD DELAY THIS DOWNGRADE OF
CATEGORY. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
IMPACT VISIBILITIES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THERE HAS BEEN MUCH TALK AND MANY WATCHFUL EYES ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...AND IT IS NOW HERE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER SRN AZ EARLY THIS
MORNING...DRAGGING PACIFIC MONSOONAL MOISTURE OUR WAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL TAKE CARE OF THE CURRENT RAINSHIELD ACROSS NM/NW SOUTH
PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE AND MORE DURING THE DAY. THEN A REINFORCING
SHOT OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF BEELINES ITS WAY FOR THE SOUTH AND
ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO GO ALL IN ON THE
POPS FOR TONIGHT AT 100 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON
COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE SECONDARY SURGE OF MOISTURE LEND
CONFIDENCE ON GOING WITH THE FULL POPS. THE HRRR AND HI-RES ARW
BOTH WANT TO BRING THE GULF SURGE IN SLIGHTLY EARLIER AND BREAK
OUT THE CWA WIDE RAINFALL DURING THE 18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AT 100 PERCENT THIS WILL HAPPEN WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT DEFINITE POPS ON THE CAPROCK AND LIKELY OFF BEFORE BREAKING
OUT THE DEFINITE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AROUND 00Z. IF THE GULF
MOISTURE DOES INDEED MAKE A SURGE NORTH EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED...POPS OFF THE CAPROCK WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
OTHER SMALL CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD...LOWERED HIGHS OFF THE
CAPROCK FOR CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAINFALL. ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT
LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO AS CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER.
FLOOD WATCH IS TO GO INTO EFFECT WEDNESDAY AT 18Z. AGREE WITH
THINKING OF ISSUING SHIFT SO IT WILL BE LEFT AS IS. QPF VALUES STILL
SHOW VALUES OF 1-3 INCHES...EVEN HIGHER STILL FOR DAYS 1-2...SO
PONDING...PLAYA OVERRUNNING...STREETS/ROADWAYS IN URBAN AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...
THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE FINAL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. A STRONG
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO EASE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS STILL
ARE PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL ON
THURSDAY AND WITH MORE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROMOTE
TRAINING OF STORMS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DEEP
RESULTING IN A HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LOW AS EXPECTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SATURATED SOUNDINGS.
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITIES WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN
700 J/KG THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
AFTER A DRYING OUT ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY MAY SEE A BRIEF RETURN FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL BRING A TRAILING SHORT WAVE
BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THERE EXISTS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO HOW SHARP THIS SHORT WAVE WILL BE. A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A BOOST TO SEE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES
SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-043-044.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-
033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
51/29/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1113 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015
.UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST
IOWA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WAS BEING DRIVEN BY A 500
MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND SOME 700 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THIS WELL SO FAR TODAY. THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE NOW BRINGING THIS PRECIPITATION INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THE 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES
EAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY 00Z THURSDAY...SO THIS MOVEMENT
SEEMS REASONABLE. RAISED POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
CONTINUED TO MENTION THUNDER IN FORECAST...AS AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.
THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE...BUT SIDED WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS
WITH ELEVATED CAPES. THE INCREASED CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HIGHS IN THIS
AREA IN THE 60S...VERSUS LOWER TO MID 70S TO THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST THROUGH
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY WEAKENING AS THEY
SHIFT EAST. THESE MAY AFFECT MADISON BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z...AND THE
EASTERN SITES BETWEEN 19Z AND 23Z. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL UNTIL AROUND
00Z THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS...WITH CLEARING SKIES.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A FEW GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD NOT BE FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING IN
SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING BEHIND DEPARTING 500 MB VORTICITY
MAXIMA.
MODEL LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES LATE IN THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH CVA WITH LEAD VORT MAX SWEEPING NORTHERN WI AHEAD
OF CLOSED 500 MB LOW CROSSING SRN CANADA DRIVING THE UPPER LAYER Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 850 MB 30-
40KT WIND MAX ACCOUNTING FOR THE LOWER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...THOUGH
BOTH ARE STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM NRN MN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MOISTURE AGAIN IN QUESTION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY IN THE
LOWER LAYERS THOUGH NAM IS MORE MOIST THROUGH THE COLUMN THAN GFS.
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...INITIALLY WITH THE 850 MB WAA AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO THE SW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
SPREAD IT ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA WITH THE STRONG
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ENOUGH TO PUT IN THUNDER FOR
THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
925MB THERMAL RIDGE NOSES ACROSS SRN WI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 70S...WITH A FEW MID 70S POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
PCPN CHANCES COME TO AN END AS FORCING PUSHES OUT OF AREA WITH FRONT
EXITING THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE EVENING. LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER TO ACCOUNT FOR A LINGER SHOWER
UNTIL FRONT CLEARS SRN WI. COOL AIR SPREADS IN ON NW WINDS WITH 925
MB TEMPERATURES FALLING ABOUT 8C FROM 00Z TO 12Z THURSDAY...
PRODUCING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S INLAND AND MID 40S ALONG
THE LAKE.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS BUILDS UP ACROSS IA/MN INTO WRN WI.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PROGGD TO SHIFT FROM MN/IA TO ERN WI AND LAKE
MI AREA BY 00Z. SOME ONSHORE COMPONENT EXPECTED THOUGH OVERALL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LINGERING INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE EAST
WITH DRY ESE FLOW. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROGGD TO SHIFT EAST AND
SET UP THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. NEXT SHORTWAVE WITH INCREASING DCVA AND
MOIST ADV STARTS TO APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST PRECIP
COVERAGE/POPS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE NUDGED POPS IN SOME
AREAS TO CATEGORICAL FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE WHEN INFLUENCE OF
NEWD MOVG NEG TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE AREA.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
FRONT SHIFTS EAST DURING THE MORNING. AS 925/850 WINDS TURN MORE
WEST BY AFTERNOON EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE ON THE DECREASE. STILL
SOME VORT ACTION LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON THOUGH MODELS DRY
THINGS OUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY POST FRONTAL PRECIP POTENTIAL. SO
WILL CONFINE POPS TO MAINLY THE MORNING HOURS.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
SURFACE HIGH PROGGD TO BE IN CONTROL WITH WNW 500 MILLIBAR
PATTERN. CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE SITUATED TO OUR NORTH. DRY FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW THOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINTING AT SOME
WAA PCPN ACROSS MAINLY NRN WI. WILL LEAVE THE DRY SUPERBLEND POPS
AS IS FOR SRN WI.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
THE GFS KEEPS ANY SHEARED VORT/WAA PCPN TO OUR NORTH AND SHIFTS
IT EAST WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST. AIRMASS LIKELY TO BE QUITE DRY DURING THIS TIME SO HARD TO
GO AGAINST SUPERBLEND POPS ESP WITH ELONGATED/CHANNELIZED LOOK TO
VORT PATTERN AND ANY FORCING FROM THIS PRIMARILY TO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
GFS MUCH FASTER ON EJECTING SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL PRECIP THAN
THE ECMWF. ECMWF KEEPS AREA DRY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE FASTER GFS
GENERATES SHRA WITH LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA. CHANCY POPS
FROM THE SUPERBLEND A GOOD COMPROMISE APPROACH AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...APPEARS SPOTTY MVFR CIGS HAVE PUSHED EAST
OF FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. LOOK FOR GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH
THE REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO PUT IN AT ANY OF THE TAF
SITES AT THIS TIME. SKIES CLEAR AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING...BUT REMAINING JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL MEAN HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE TOWARDS OPEN WATER.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR