Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/19/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
130 PM MST SAT OCT 17 2015
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING ELEVATED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A MODEST DRYING TREND ON MONDAY
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS A SECOND LOW MOVES INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... THE UPPER LOW...WHICH HAS NOW WEAKENED
INTO AN OPEN WAVE...IS NOW STEADILY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AZ
THIS HOUR. AHEAD OF THE TROF AXIS...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA.
ALTHOUGH A FEW AREAS HAVE/WILL LIKELY SEEN BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...WITH 88D RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF OVER 1/2 INCH IN A
FEW ISOLATED SPOTS...MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE/WILL LIKELY BEEN MUCH
WEAKER THEN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY...DUE TO LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN. BEHIND THIS CURRENT LINE OF STORMS...A
CLEARING TREND CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER WESTERN AZ AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE
CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THROUGH THIS
EVENING SINCE THE HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME EARLY
EVENING ACTIVITY...LIKELY BEING TRIGGERED BY OUTFLOWS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TUCSON AREA.
MUCH OF SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DRY IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE EVEN DRIER...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS BRIEFLY OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROF. OUTSIDE
OF PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX...THE ONLY OTHER PLACE THAT COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
IS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LA PAZ COUNTY...AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW PULLS A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR THAT THEY
WILL BE NEAR...OR JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
FURTHER COOLING...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE ON
THE WAY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS...EURO...AND MANY OF THEIR
EMSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOW SHOWING A RATHER DEEP UPPER TROF DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE
TUESDAY...THEN WOBBLING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS IT TEMPORARILY GETS CUT OFF FOR THE MAIN
POLAR JET. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PRETTY DYNAMIC ONE...WITH
COLDER AIR ALOFT (500MB TEMPS IN THE -15C TO -16C RANGE) THAN WHAT
WE ARE SEEING WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM...MOISTURE WITH THIS NEW
SYSTEM APPEARS IT WILL BE MORE LIMITED...WITH PWATS MAINLY IN THE
0.70-1.00 INCH RANGE AT MOST...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO THE SYSTEM/S
MORE NORTHERLY ORIGIN OVER THE NE PACIFIC...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT
RAINFALL CHANCES/COVERAGE. STILL...IT APPEARS THAT SHOWER CHANCES
WILL BE AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE-LIKELY RANGE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
BEING LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. ALONG WITH
THE RETURN OF SHOWER CHANCES...IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
FALL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
SHOWING LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S EACH DAY...WHICH COULD
TURN OUT TO BE EVEN COOLER IF IT TURNS OUT WE GET MORE RAIN/CLOUDS
THEN WE CURRENTLY EXPECT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE A
DRY COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...AS THE MAIN
TROF MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND FLAT RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY E/NE SFC WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLD TSRA COULD BE
EMBEDDED WITH THE SHOWERS...HOWEVER COVERAGE LOOKS VERY SPARSE. THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SCT SHOWERS WILL BE THROUGH 14Z
THIS MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SFC WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH COULD OCCASIONAL DRIFT BETWEEN NNE AND SE. STRONGER
GUSTS ABOVE 20KT WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DECREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...TOO LIMITED
COVERAGE FOR INCLUDING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SHIFTING VARIABLE SFC
WINDS WILL BE COMMON...AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ANY SPECIFIC
WIND SHIFT IS RATHER LOW.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE DISTRICT.
LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IN A 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE EARLY
IN THE WEEK WILL ONLY DECREASE TO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT. A FEW STRONGER NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NOT A FIRE
WEATHER IMPACT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...DEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
940 AM MST SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 30-60 DBZ ECHOES
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SILVER BELL SEWD TO JUST SOUTH OF TUCSON...AND
FURTHER SEWD INTO SWRN COCHISE COUNTY AT THIS TIME. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE DETECTED WITH THE ECHOES AROUND SILVER BELL.
OTHERWISE...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA. A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED A GENERAL ELY/SELY SURFACE
WIND REGIME...AND A WIND GUST OF 34 KTS WAS RECORDED AT KTUS AT
750 AM MST.
A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...17/12Z NAM12...SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS AND THE 17/06Z UNIV
OF ARIZONA WRF-NAM WERE QUITE SIMILAR IN DEPICTING SHOWERS/TSTMS TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED LOCALES FOR THIS
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY WEST-TO-SOUTH OF TUCSON. THE MID-
LEVEL STEERING FLOW SUPPORTS NELY STORM MOTIONS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR INTO THIS
EVENING. THE LEAST FAVORED AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS WRN
PIMA COUNTY.
THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY WITH THE BULK OF THE 17/12Z MODEL SUITE.
THUS...MORE DETAIL TO OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. PLEASE
REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/18Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA THIS MORNING THEN NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED -TSRA WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS VICINITY EASTWARD
TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS
WILL BE AROUND 8-12K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE
ELY/SELY AT 8-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH LESS
COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN BY FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /322 AM MST/...THEREAFTER...THE RAIN CHANCES LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...MORE RAIN WILL BE ON THE
WAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THEN HANGS OUT NEAR ARIZONA THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER TO READINGS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AROUND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
905 AM MST SAT OCT 17 2015
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING ELEVATED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AND
SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS A SECOND LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION... A WEAK SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER
LOW CENTER THAT BROUGHT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IS
TRIGGERING ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS LA
PAZ AND EASTERN YUMA COUNTIES. THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL RUN IS
NOW SHOWING THAT THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS WE GO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BUT
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER TO THE EAST...OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THAT REGION AND OUTFLOWS
FROM STORMS OVER SE AZ MOVES INTO THAT REGION. HOWEVER...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MUCH
LESS INTENSE/WIDESPREAD THEN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY...DUE TO LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...BUT THERE STILL COULD A FEW
STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. AS FAR AS THE VERY SHORT-TERM
FORECAST IS CONCERNED...OTHER THAN RAISING POPS INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE OVER SW AZ...INHERITED GRIDDED AND ZONE FORECASTS ARE
HOLDING UP WELL.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH SEVERAL
UPPER LOWS/SMALL-SCALE SHORTWAVES IN/AROUND ARIZONA. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS OF 08Z...WITH
ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER WAVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER LOW WAS DEEPENING OFF THE COAST OF OREGON. ALL OF THESE WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION AT VARIOUS TIMES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE SOUTHERN-MOST SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS FAIRLY
POTENT AND HAS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO WORK WITH...HAS DEEPENED
SOMEWHAT SINCE MIDNIGHT...AND IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODEST MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY. UNFORTUNATELY...IT HASN`T BEEN INITIALIZED
PARTICULARLY WELL BY ANY OF THE 00Z OR 06Z LARGE-SCALE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS. ONLY THE RAP AND THE HRRR /NOT SURPRISINGLY/ HAVE CORRECTLY
IDENTIFIED THIS FEATURE AND MATCH CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ARIZONA...BUT QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO NEW MEXICO LATER
TODAY. AS SUCH...I WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WITH THIS WAVE. MEANWHILE...THE WAVE
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTERACT WITH A FAIRLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...MLCAPES ARE
ONLY AROUND 250-500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER /0-6KM/ SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND
15KTS. EXPECTING SOME ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH AS WHAT WAS SEEN ON FRIDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE LESS ACTIVE STORM-WISE ALTHOUGH BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ELEVATED PWATS...MODEST INSTABILITY...AND
THE SUGGESTION OF WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES IN ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS COULD
STILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH DAYS. MITIGATING
FACTORS ACROSS THE DESERTS SUCH AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY TO THE POINT WHERE MLCAPES ARE VIRTUALLY ZERO...BUT STILL
SEEMS THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS ARE WARRANTED /ESPECIALLY
EAST OF PHOENIX/.
MEANWHILE...THE LOW PRESENTLY WEST OF OREGON WILL MOVE INLAND AND
DIVE SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS ARIZONA ON TUESDAY.
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES AS I
WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT IMPRESSIVE PWATS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE IT SEEMS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...GEFS/NAEFS PWATS AREN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH AND AREN`T FORECAST
TO RISE MUCH ABOVE 1-2 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL /NOT EVEN INTO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE/. NAEFS POPS ONLY SHOWING 40-50 PERCENT MAX ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW...THEN QUICKLY DROPPING OFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE NAEFS FAIRLY CLOSELY FOR NEXT WEEK AND WILL
HOLD SHORT OF BUMPING UP POPS MUCH FURTHER UNLESS PWATS TAKE A
NOTEWORTHY JUMP UPWARD. ALL DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
SUGGEST A RETURN TO DRY WESTERLY FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ASIDE FROM TODAY MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE
LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK COURTESY
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING/INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WITH THE UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...HIGHS COULD CONCEIVABLY STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT
OF THE MID 80S PER LATEST CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED ACCORDINGLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY E/NE SFC WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLD TSRA COULD BE
EMBEDDED WITH THE SHOWERS...HOWEVER COVERAGE LOOKS VERY SPARSE. THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SCT SHOWERS WILL BE THROUGH 14Z
THIS MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SFC WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH COULD OCCASIONAL DRIFT BETWEEN NNE AND SE. STRONGER
GUSTS ABOVE 20KT WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DECREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...TOO LIMITED
COVERAGE FOR INCLUDING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SHIFTING VARIABLE SFC
WINDS WILL BE COMMON...AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ANY SPECIFIC
WIND SHIFT IS RATHER LOW.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE DISTRICT.
LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IN A 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE EARLY
IN THE WEEK WILL ONLY DECREASE TO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT. A FEW STRONGER NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NOT A FIRE
WEATHER IMPACT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...DEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
513 AM MST SAT OCT 17 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING ELEVATED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AND
SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS A SECOND LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH SEVERAL UPPER LOWS/SMALL-SCALE
SHORTWAVES IN/AROUND ARIZONA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS OF 08Z...WITH ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER WAVE OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW WAS DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST OF OREGON. ALL OF THESE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE SOUTHERN-MOST SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS FAIRLY
POTENT AND HAS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO WORK WITH...HAS DEEPENED
SOMEWHAT SINCE MIDNIGHT...AND IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODEST MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY. UNFORTUNATELY...IT HASN`T BEEN INITIALIZED
PARTICULARLY WELL BY ANY OF THE 00Z OR 06Z LARGE-SCALE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS. ONLY THE RAP AND THE HRRR /NOT SURPRISINGLY/ HAVE CORRECTLY
IDENTIFIED THIS FEATURE AND MATCH CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ARIZONA...BUT QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO NEW MEXICO LATER
TODAY. AS SUCH...I WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WITH THIS WAVE. MEANWHILE...THE WAVE
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTERACT WITH A FAIRLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...MLCAPES ARE
ONLY AROUND 250-500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER /0-6KM/ SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND
15KTS. EXPECTING SOME ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH AS WHAT WAS SEEN ON FRIDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE LESS ACTIVE STORM-WISE ALTHOUGH BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ELEVATED PWATS...MODEST INSTABILITY...AND
THE SUGGESTION OF WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES IN ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS COULD
STILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH DAYS. MITIGATING
FACTORS ACROSS THE DESERTS SUCH AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY TO THE POINT WHERE MLCAPES ARE VIRTUALLY ZERO...BUT STILL
SEEMS THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS ARE WARRANTED /ESPECIALLY
EAST OF PHOENIX/.
MEANWHILE...THE LOW PRESENTLY WEST OF OREGON WILL MOVE INLAND AND
DIVE SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS ARIZONA ON TUESDAY.
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES AS I
WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT IMPRESSIVE PWATS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE IT SEEMS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...GEFS/NAEFS PWATS AREN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH AND AREN`T FORECAST
TO RISE MUCH ABOVE 1-2 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL /NOT EVEN INTO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE/. NAEFS POPS ONLY SHOWING 40-50 PERCENT MAX ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW...THEN QUICKLY DROPPING OFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE NAEFS FAIRLY CLOSELY FOR NEXT WEEK AND WILL
HOLD SHORT OF BUMPING UP POPS MUCH FURTHER UNLESS PWATS TAKE A
NOTEWORTHY JUMP UPWARD. ALL DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
SUGGEST A RETURN TO DRY WESTERLY FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ASIDE FROM TODAY MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE
LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK COURTESY
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING/INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WITH THE UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...HIGHS COULD CONCEIVABLY STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT
OF THE MID 80S PER LATEST CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED ACCORDINGLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GUSTY E/NE SFC WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLD TSRA COULD BE
EMBEDDED WITH THE SHOWERS...HOWEVER COVERAGE LOOKS VERY SPARSE. THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SCT SHOWERS WILL BE THROUGH 14Z
THIS MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SFC WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH COULD OCCASIONAL DRIFT BETWEEN NNE AND SE. STRONGER
GUSTS ABOVE 20KT WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
DECREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...TOO LIMITED
COVERAGE FOR INCLUDING IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SHIFTING VARIABLE SFC
WINDS WILL BE COMMON...AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ANY SPECIFIC
WIND SHIFT IS RATHER LOW.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE DISTRICT.
LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IN A 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE EARLY
IN THE WEEK WILL ONLY DECREASE TO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT. A FEW STRONGER NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NOT A FIRE
WEATHER IMPACT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...DEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
322 AM MST SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY FOLLOWED BY LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED
BY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD
DEVELOPED ACROSS SANTA CRUZ...COCHISE...AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING. AUTOMATED GAUGES WERE SHOWING SOME DECENT
RAINFALL RATES WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE
RATHER FAST MOVEMENT OF THEM SHOULD LESSEN THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER...TRAINING CELLS IN A FEW SPOT ACROSS WESTERN
COCHISE INTO SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN THIS
MORNING. THAT SAID...LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
UNDER THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE. THEREAFTER...THE RAIN CHANCES
LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...MORE RAIN WILL BE ON THE WAY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
DROPS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THEN HANGS OUT NEAR ARIZONA
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
EVENTUALLY LOWER TO READINGS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AROUND TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/12Z.
SCTD -SHRA/TSRA. MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THRU
THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL BE AROUND 8-12K FT AGL AND
SFC WIND WILL GENERALLY BE ELY/SELY AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH LESS
AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
148 AM MST SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING ELEVATED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY AND
SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT DRYING TREND ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER AS A SECOND LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH SEVERAL UPPER LOWS/SMALL-SCALE
SHORTWAVES IN/AROUND ARIZONA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AS OF 08Z...WITH ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER WAVE OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW WAS DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST OF OREGON. ALL OF THESE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE SOUTHERN-MOST SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS FAIRLY
POTENT AND HAS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO WORK WITH...HAS DEEPENED
SOMEWHAT SINCE MIDNIGHT...AND IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODEST MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY. UNFORTUNATELY...IT HASN`T BEEN INITIALIZED
PARTICULARLY WELL BY ANY OF THE 00Z OR 06Z LARGE-SCALE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS. ONLY THE RAP AND THE HRRR /NOT SURPRISINGLY/ HAVE CORRECTLY
IDENTIFIED THIS FEATURE AND MATCH CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ARIZONA...BUT QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO NEW MEXICO LATER
TODAY. AS SUCH...I WILL MAINTAIN 20-30 POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WITH THIS WAVE. MEANWHILE...THE WAVE
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTERACT WITH A FAIRLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY...MLCAPES ARE
ONLY AROUND 250-500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER /0-6KM/ SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND
15KTS. EXPECTING SOME ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH AS WHAT WAS SEEN ON FRIDAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE LESS ACTIVE STORM-WISE ALTHOUGH BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ELEVATED PWATS...MODEST INSTABILITY...AND
THE SUGGESTION OF WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVES IN ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS COULD
STILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH DAYS. MITIGATING
FACTORS ACROSS THE DESERTS SUCH AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY TO THE POINT WHERE MLCAPES ARE VIRTUALLY ZERO...BUT STILL
SEEMS THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS ARE WARRANTED /ESPECIALLY
EAST OF PHOENIX/.
MEANWHILE...THE LOW PRESENTLY WEST OF OREGON WILL MOVE INLAND AND
DIVE SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS ARIZONA ON TUESDAY.
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN TERMS OF PRECIP CHANCES AS I
WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT IMPRESSIVE PWATS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE IT SEEMS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...GEFS/NAEFS PWATS AREN`T PARTICULARLY HIGH AND AREN`T FORECAST
TO RISE MUCH ABOVE 1-2 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL /NOT EVEN INTO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE/. NAEFS POPS ONLY SHOWING 40-50 PERCENT MAX ON TUESDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW...THEN QUICKLY DROPPING OFF WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE NAEFS FAIRLY CLOSELY FOR NEXT WEEK AND WILL
HOLD SHORT OF BUMPING UP POPS MUCH FURTHER UNLESS PWATS TAKE A
NOTEWORTHY JUMP UPWARD. ALL DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS
SUGGEST A RETURN TO DRY WESTERLY FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ASIDE FROM TODAY MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE
LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK COURTESY
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING/INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WITH THE UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY...HIGHS COULD CONCEIVABLY STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT
OF THE MID 80S PER LATEST CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND TEMPERATURES
WERE LOWERED ACCORDINGLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SCT SHOWERS AND GUSTY E/NE SFC WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION
CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLD TSRA COULD BE EMBEDDED
WITH THE SHOWERS...HOWEVER COVERAGE LOOKS VERY SPARSE. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SCT SHOWERS WILL BE THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT...THEN
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL
EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH COULD OCCASIONAL
DRIFT BETWEEN NNE AND SE. STRONGER GUSTS ABOVE 20KT WILL BE LIKELY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. KBLH WILL
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO TO PASSING STORMS...THOUGH LIMITED COVERAGE
PRECLUDES MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. SHIFTING VARIABLE SFC WINDS
WILL BE COMMON...AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ANY SPECIFIC WIND
SHIFT IS RATHER LOW.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE DISTRICT.
LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IN A 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE EARLY
IN THE WEEK WILL ONLY DECREASE TO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT. A FEW STRONGER NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NOT A FIRE
WEATHER IMPACT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...DEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
930 PM MST FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED NUMEROUS 30-60 DBZ ECHOES MOVING
NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PIMA COUNTY...ERN SANTA CRUZ/WRN COCHISE
COUNTY...AND SE PINAL/SWRN GRAHAM COUNTY AT THIS TIME. PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS WERE ONGOING ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY...AND GENERALLY FROM
CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY INCLUDING SAFFORD NEWD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLOUDY SKIES AREA-WIDE...AND THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WERE GENERALLY WARMING DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS.
BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS...APPEARS THAT SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD
DECREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS THE TUCSON METRO AREA DURING THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF TONIGHT
ACROSS COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES AND EVENTUALLY INTO GREENLEE
COUNTY. THE 17/03Z HRRR AND TO AN EXTENT THE 17/00Z NAM12 SUPPORTS
THIS NOTION.
THUS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE
REST OF TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. HAVE MAINTAINED JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO SAT MORNING ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
TSTMS SAT AFTERNOON FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH...AND ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. HIGH TEMPS SAT ARE FORECAST TO
AVERAGE WITHIN A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 18/06Z.
EXPECT NUMEROUS -SHRA AND SCATTERED -TSRA ESPECIALLY FROM KTUS
VICINITY EASTWARD THE REST OF TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/
-SHRA SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA
RETURNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS
AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THRU THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL BE AROUND 8-12K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE ELY/SELY AT 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN A DRYING
TREND WILL OCCUR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /100 PM MST/...SATURDAY WE HAVE THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. WHILE TIMING OF THIS MAY CHANGE A
SOME...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN PIMA COUNTY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL HAVE SOME SHEAR AVAILABLE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE CAPE SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AND ALSO FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINERS
THAT MAY MOVE ACROSS AREAS THAT GET DECENT RAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS NE OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IT WILL TAKE
THAT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. HOWEVER...AS THEY SAY ON
TV...BUT WAIT THERE`S MORE. THE ATMOSPHERE IN ITS ATTEMPT TO BUILD A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST IN THE LONG TERM /SEE 5-WAVE
HEIGHT FIELDS THROUGH THE NEXT 10-DAYS/ IT DROPS ANOTHER LOW ACROSS
CALIFORNIA AND SWINGS A VORT LOBE UP ACROSS WESTERN AZ BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SE AZ SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT THE AREA FROM
TUCSON EASTWARD.
BEYOND THAT IT GETS REALLY INTERESTING ONCE AGAIN. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING
TROUGH MONDAY FORMING A SIGNIFICANT CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CONVECTION TO DEAL WITH ON MONDAY
FOR PORTIONS OF SE AZ AND LIKELY EASTERN AREAS. THIS LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO MEANDER ACROSS AZ THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NE. IF THIS INDEED PLAYS OUT LIKE
THIS WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO GO ALONG WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD TO REFLECT
THIS IDEA.
LOOKING EVEN FURTHER AHEAD...AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WEST THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE
UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES WELL INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
THE EXPECTED WETTER THAN NORMAL WINTER MAY BE GETTING AN EARLY
START. CERNIGLIA
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE WIDESPREAD NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRYING...AND
WARMER WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AFTER PARTIAL CLEARING THIS MORNING...LOW CLOUDS RAPIDLY REDEVELOPED
WEST OF THE MTS TODAY. THE LOW CLOUDS WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SAN
DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTIES AT MIDDAY...WHILE THE INLAND EMPIRE WAS
MOSTLY CLEAR. CLOUDS WERE ALSO THICK OVER THE MTN CRESTS AND
OFFSHORE. ISOLATED RADAR ECHOES HAD POPPED BY 1 PM ON THE MTN SLOPES
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE 3 MBS OR LESS TO/FROM THE DESERTS. WINDS
WERE GENERALLY LIGHT.
LATEST HRRR MODEL STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE MTS. WITH HIGH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND PW WELL OVER ONE INCH IN MANY AREAS...EXPECT
TO SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER SUNSET...
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG INLAND TO THE COASTAL SLOPES. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
NEAR THE MTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. SIMILAR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON SUN/MON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG CIRCULATION OFF THE NOCAL COAST
THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH TUE...AND MAY CUT
OFF OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FOR A TIME MIDWEEK. SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES A THREAT OF SHWRS IN THE MTS/DESERTS
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH THE UPPER
LOW IN THIS POSITION. SOME GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW MAY DEVELOP TUE/WED
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WELL...BUT MODELS DO NOT SHOW
IT PERSISTING OR BECOMING WIDESPREAD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINS
MODERATE AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE LOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE GLOBAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. BASED ON THE LATEST 12Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS...EXPECT
DRY AND SEASONAL...TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
172030Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 1500 FT
MSL TO 3500 FT MSL ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN AND BECOME
BKN/OVC TONIGHT...FILLING THE COASTAL BASIN. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND 0600Z. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN
SCATTERED OUT BETWEEN 18/1600Z-1900Z.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT CLOUDS IN THE 7000-12000 FT MSL LAYER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN...THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BASES 5000-8000 FT MSL...TOPS 15000 FT MSL AND CB TOPS TO 35000 FT
MSL. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS OF 25-35 KT. VIS
LOCALLY REDUCED TO 3-5SM IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
130 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...JT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
447 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A FRONT GOES ACROSS. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THEN WARM BACK A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
CALIFORNIA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:10 AM PDT SATURDAY...KMUX RADAR IS SHOWING
AN INCREASE IN ECHOES OFF THE SONOMA COAST THIS MORNING WHICH ARE
OUT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA
LATER TODAY. MODELS BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA AT
THE SAME TIME ALTHOUGH LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED DRIER WITH
SOME SHOWING VIRTUALLY NO RAINFALL THROUGH NOON. AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH STARTING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MORE UNSTABLE AIR
WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LIKELY GIVE US OUR BEST SHOT
OF GETTING TIPS OF THE BUCKET AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
CWA WHERE LIFTED VALUES DROP DOWN TO LESS THAN NEGATIVE 1.5.
OVERALL FORECAST WAS ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED FROM THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT. ALMOST ALL SHOWERS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.
NEXT WEEK GENERALLY LOOK VERY QUIET WEATHER WISE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY,
AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RETURN
TO WARMER THAN NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY DUE TO THE RIDGE AND
OFFSHORE FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS ALTHOUGH RAINFALL SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE
NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:45 PM PDT SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AS
DEEP MARINE LAYER PUSHES INLAND AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. VCSH FOR NORTH BAY THROUGH THE MORNING... BUT NO THREAT
OF WET RUNWAYS AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. ONSHORE
WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT SOME TAF SITES
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR CIGS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING. IFR CIGS AFTER
10Z SUN. PEAK ONSHORE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT SAT AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR POSBL THROUGH THE DAY. IFR CIGS
POSBL AFTER 02Z SUN. ONSHORE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:40 PM PDT FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEHIND THE LOW RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVER THE INNER WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
NORTH AND THERMAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE COAST.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 4 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
430 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015
SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weekend with cool temperatures and
showers/thunderstorms. This will give way to a breezy beginning
of the week with warming temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION
Quite an eventful overnight shift. A North-South line of
showers/thunderstorms began to develop after 1 am. By 2 am, this
line generally impacted valley areas between Modesto up towards
Red Bluff with the Sacramento region getting hit the hardest.
Multiple reports of lightning with brief, heavy downpours in and
around the Sac Metro region. The Downtown Sacramento rain gauge
measured over 0.30" between 1-2 am. By 3 am, the gauge had
measured 0.38" of rain. This line gradually moved northeastward
and by 3:15 am, it looked like part of the line was headed towards
the Butte Wildfire Scar. Between 3:30-3:45 am, the showers were
diminishing on radar just west of the scar. Hourly rate of rain
with these cells is below debris flow critera for the burn scar,
but we will continue to monitor this morning. As of 4:30 am there
were almost 200 lightning strikes between the Modesto to Oroville
area and including the Western Sierra slopes.
Instability will continue through tonight. Have added slight
chance of thunderstorms to the Western Sierra Slope Foothills and
Mountains between 5 am to 11 am since that`s where the line of
showers/thunderstorms is currently located and the HRRR also
indicates activity in that region this morning. In the afternoon,
HRRR shows a isolated shower activity in the valley, but it will
be hit or miss. Daytime highs today will be near to a couple
degrees below normal for this time of year with valley highs in
the mid 70s, mountains in the 50s and 60s.
The low lingers over NorCal into Sunday and shower activity should be
limited to the higher elevations of the Sierra. Daytime highs will
be similar to today...near to a little below normal. By Monday
morning the low will be northeast of our region and a warming
trend begins with dry weather. More notable warming occurs Tuesday
as daytime highs around 10 degrees above normal with valley highs
back around the mid 80s. JBB
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
The extended period starts out dry under a ridge of high pressure
between a low centered over northern Baja and another trough in
the Gulf of Alaska. Wedmesday will likely be the warmest day with
daytime highs expected to come in between 5 and 10 degrees above
normal. A small scale upper trough is forecast to pass through the
Pacific Northwest on Thursday. This should bring a little cooling
but daytime highs are still likely to remain several degrees above
normal. Extended models begin to deviate on Friday in regards to
another upper trough digging out of the Gulf of Alaska. Both models
put this system over the Pacific Northwest coast by Friday
afternoon but GFS somewhat deeper bringing precipitation to the
far northern portions of California while the ECMWF is more
shallow with the system keeping any precip well north of the
state. GFS would indicate the possibility of some shower activity
northern zones next Saturday while the ECMWF would keep the region
dry. Have kept slight threat of precipitation over the northern
zones Saturday in coordination with 00z GFS and surrounding
offices. This represents a trend of pulling precipitation farther
northward and quick look at 06z GFS shows this trend continuing.
If this trend continues...may end up removing precip from forecast
all together next weekend. Either way...cooler temperatures still
in store for end of the week although daytime highs are still
likely to remain at least a little above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions today all TAF sites but widespread showers
and thunderstorms are possible through about 06z Sunday. Surface
winds south to southwest today sustained below 15 knots except
strong and variable near thunderstorms. More variable winds after
06Z.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1232 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A HARD FREEZE LIKELY
FOR MANY AREAS. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN STARTING MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 931 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR HEADLINES. ANY INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IS
STILL EXPECTED TO HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE AFFECT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL GET CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK EVEN
OVER THOSE COUNTIES. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-
FREEZING OR SUBFREEZING TEMPS LATE TONIGHT...AND ANY IMPACT FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN INDUCED CU/STRATOCU.
COLD DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BULK
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGH CENTER LIKELY TO NOT DETER WIDESPREAD FROST
ACCRUAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COMBINATION OF A WAVE ALOFT REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKES
WILL KEEP SOME FORM OF LOWER CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN
INDIANA AND POSSIBLY WORKING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE 925-850MB LAYER INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE INDY
METRO...AND THE RAP IS STARTING TO HINT AT THIS TOWARD DAWN AS WELL.
EVEN WITH BROKEN CLOUDS DRIFTING INTO NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE...
THOSE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ENOUGH TIME WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING THAT TEMPS SHOULD STILL MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE
FREEZING MARK...WITH POTENTIAL TO GO LOWER IF LESS CLOUDS DEVELOP
THAN CURRENTLY THINKING. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE CHOSEN TO UPGRADE
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO A FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT. NOT EVERYONE
IS GOING TO GET TO 32 OR LOWER...BUT STILL FEEL A WIDESPREAD FROST
IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS...LEANED TOWARDS LOW END OF MOS AND EVEN UNDERCUT IT BY A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...TEMP RESPONSE HAS OUTPACED MOS GUIDANCE ON BOTH
HIGHS AND LOWS THE LAST FEW DAYS. EVEN WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
CLOUDS LATE...THINK UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL BE COMMON FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE GROWING SEASON TO COME TO AN OFFICIAL END EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
ON WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED CU/STRATOCU MAY BE A BIT
MORE PREVALENT ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUNDINGS/RH PROGS SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE 925-
850MB LAYER. ANY CU WILL DISSIPATE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
SATURDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE
REGION.
WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA AND THE 850MB COLD POOL NEARBY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCE AT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE OVER THE
AREA WILL EXIST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY FOR NOW...BUT HAVE NO DOUBT THAT THIS WILL BE
UPGRADED TO A WARNING EITHER TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS ON MONDAY. TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AND PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY
BETWEEN THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPS...GOING ALONG WITH TEMP BEHAVIOR LAST FEW DAYS...LEANED
TOWARDS FAR ENDS OF THE GUIDANCE ON BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. UNDERCUT MOS MOST EVERYWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MANY
AREAS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE UNDER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S BY MONDAY AND SOME AREAS IN THE WABASH VALLEY COULD
MAKE A RUN AT 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. SOLUTION SPREAD INCREASES BY MID WEEK WITH
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ACCEPTED INITIALIZATION
WITH ONLY QUALITY CONTROL ADJUSTMENTS RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TAPERING TO DRY SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY ATMOSPHERE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
CIRRUS AND PERHAPS SCT DIURNAL CU. NORTHWEST WINDS 6 KNOTS OR LESS
WILL INCREASE A BIT TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
HOWEVER...WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DISCOURAGE
AFTERNOON GUSTS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST OR CALM AFTER
23Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GOODLAND KS
138 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS OFF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO WITH TIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS
RESPONSIBLE FOR BREEZY-WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...CLOSED LOW OFF PACIFIC NW WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE
GREAT BASIN AND WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND
NORTHERN EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK
FORCING WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER
OTHERWISE A DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE WILL PREVENT PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT IN OUR CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER OUR CWA WITH INCREASING WAA AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES RETURNING. BASED ON MIXING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALOFT WE
SHOULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 80F WHICH IS ABOUT 15F ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY AS A RESULT OF A MODERATELY
STRONG LLJ INCREASING BL MIXING...HOWEVER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
AND ALONG VALLEYS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND COOL TO
AROUND 40F.
WE MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG DEVELOP ALONG VALLEYS/LOW
AREAS IN OUR NW ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION
DUE TO EXPECTED MIXING...BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2015
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT THE ENTIRE LONG PERIOD AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING TROUGH
SET TO MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN WITH THE FIRST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE THEN SPREADING OVER THE REST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS
SUGGEST AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE MAIN LIFT MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK. SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTH ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
ORIENTATED ALONG KS/CO BORDER OVERNIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS AND BL WINDS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT
CHANCES FOR LOWER VIS/CIG AT EITHER TERMINAL. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
(AROUND 20KT) SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AND DECREASE TO AROUND
12KT OR LESS BY 00Z. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVERNIGHT AND WILL
RESULT IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER DEVELOPING AT BOTH
TERMINALS. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WIND SHEER SHOULD
DECREASE BY 10-12Z (WEST TO EAST).
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
622 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015
Today, we have a major adjustment for high temperatures, especially
across our eastern counties, say east of the highway 283 corridor,
where lingering stratus into the afternoon will significantly impact
the highs for the day. The far west will still have enough
insolation for highs to reach the mid 70s, however the coolest areas
will be from Hays to Stafford. Clouds could break up in the central
counties by late afternoon, past peak heating.
An upper ridge will gradually build eastward across the Central
Plains through the weekend, as the surface high pressure shifts from
the upper Midwest into the Ohio valley. As a result, today and into
sunday will see a gradual shift to increasing winds speeds both days,
and more downslope on Sunday as surface troughing develops over
eastern Colorado. This will also reflect in higher temperatures going
forward into Sunday. Overnight lows could be tougher to forecast in
the presence of difficult to predict stratus layers. For tonight,
the NAM is far cooler than other modes and guidance. With the
generally warmer airmass coming into early next week, lows will be
back in the 50s Sunday night.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015
Overnight lows will continue to be in the 50s through around
midweek, with less certainty heading into the end of the week.
Recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF models seem to have slowed the
timing of the strong upper low moving into the desert southwest and
subsequent intense surge of isentropically forced rain/convection
for the central/southern Plains region into the Thursday night or
Friday timeframe. As a result, pops were adjusted to account for
this trend.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Sunday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015
06z NAM BUFR soundings along with the latest RAP and HRRR were all
in good agreement with low VFR ceilings giving way to clearing
skies from west to east late this morning and early this
afternoon. Gusty southeast winds at near 20 knots will also be
developing by late morning as 30 knot winds in the 900mb to 850mb
level mixes down to the surface and surface pressures falls along
the lee of the Rockies.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 70 51 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 74 52 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 77 54 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 75 53 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 64 49 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
P28 66 49 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
759 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS HIGH HAS BROUGHT CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND A DRY AIRMASS. WITH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR
IN MANY CASES A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT SHOULD END UP SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT IF NOT A DEGREE LOWER
ACROSS SOME OF THE THE EASTERN VALLEYS. THE RIDGETOPS SHOULD END
UP A A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO AN
ANTICIPATED MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED. ACCORDINGLY...THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 3 TO 9 AM EDT ON MONDAY. A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG
RIVERS OR LAKES SHOULD ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL.
OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND KENTUCKY. THIS HAS KEPT THE CLOUDS AT BAY TODAY AND ALSO THE
WINDS LIGHT. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT DID MIX DOWN BETTER THIS
AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 20S. WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S RH VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW 30S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO SERVE WELL FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE
DROP OFF THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS A BROAD AND FLATTENING RIDGE EASES INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. SOME WEAK ENERGY
WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT IN A RISING HEIGHT
ENVIRONMENT THIS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT
WHILE ALSO FAVORING THE GFS CO-OP MOS...TO A CERTAIN EXTENT...FOR
SITE SPECIFIC LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH A LARGER
RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT DEVELOPING AROUND SUNSET AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FOR THE VALLEYS BY DAWN ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE OUR FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...DO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BATCH OF PATCHY DENSE
FOG ALONG THE RIVERS AND LAKES ACROSS THE CWA TOWARD DAWN. WITH
THE MODERATING SFC HIGH DOMINATING THE WX SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS THE HIGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY
OPENING UP A LARGER RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT BUT ALSO TEMPERATURES 5
TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LOWS. PATCHY FOG WILL
ALSO BE FOUND ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS MONDAY MORNING.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR
POPS...ONCE AGAIN ZEROED THEM OUT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...IN LINE WITH ALL GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 70 THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT FOR THIS WEEK WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES
FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE RH`S INTO
THE TEENS. RH WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MORE LOW RH`S COULD RETURN.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH TO LIMIT OVERALL WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY HAVE SOME
IFR OR LOWER REDUCTIONS IN FOG BETWEEN 8Z AND 13Z OR SO...BUT
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES. THUS...THE TAF SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL ALSO LEAD TO
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH ITS INFLUENCE STRETCHING WELL EAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS LED TO A DRY AIR MASS OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ALONG WITH AMPLE MORNING SUNSHINE. THESE FACTORS
CONTRIBUTED TO TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING CU TO THE NORTH WILL
LIMIT ADDITIONAL HEATING THERE...BUT THE SOUTH COULD RISE ANOTHER
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR HIGHS. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S YIELDING RH VALUES DOWN NEAR 30 PERCENT
IN THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO 40 PERCENT NORTH. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL GRADUALLY MOVE A BROAD
AND RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF NORTH
AMERICA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH DEPARTING THE OHIO VALLEY...
HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER KENTUCKY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THIS AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE WEATHER DETAILS...FEW THAT THERE
ARE...FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12. DID AGAIN LEAN HEAVILY ON THE GFS
BASED COOP MOS TO HELP HIT OUR VALLEY COLD SPOTS TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...ONCE THE NORTHERN CU FADES AROUND SUNSET. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER THE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN VALLEY TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S WHILE RIDGES SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 30S. THESE
LOW TEMPS WILL WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING WITH THE POTENTIAL TO END
THE GROWING SEASON THROUGHOUT THE CWA...IN ADDITION TO ANTICIPATED
WIDESPREAD FROST. PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS IS ALSO
LIKELY TO FORM GIVEN WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. AFTER COORDINATION
WITH THE UK AG WX CENTER YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES INTO MONDAY MORNING REGARDLESS OF HOW COLD IT GETS
TONIGHT. FOLLOWING ANOTHER COOL DAY ON SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SIMILAR
TO TONIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN ONES. SO...
THIS NECESSITATES ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AGAIN FROST WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE
AREA ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T
AND TD GRIDS INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE TO
VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...AGAIN WENT ZERO THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD...IN LINE WITH ALL GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY
WEATHER...HAVE OPTED TO TREND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS EACH DAY...WHILE STAYING UNDER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AT
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. THIS MEANS WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS
AT OR ABOVE 70 FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...MAKING FOR A VERY PLEASANT
STRETCH OF WEATHER. A WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT THE FEATURE CONTINUES TO TREND
WEAKER...AND WILL LIKELY HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN QUICKLY REBUILD AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE MILD WEATHER CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
MAIN WEATHER IMPACT WE WILL SEE THIS WEEK...IS THE CONTINUATION OF
THE DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. ITS LIKELY A FEW RH READINGS INTO THE
TEENS MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOW AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE
GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO LIMIT OVERALL WIND POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 10 MPH. CONTINUED TO RUN
DEWPOINTS UNDER GUIDANCE EACH AFTERNOON AS MODELS TYPICALLY DON`T
HANDLE DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD MIXING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. AT LEAST THE NORTHERN SITES MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS AT 5KT
FEET THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT
5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...LIGHT OVERNIGHT
AND THEN AROUND 5 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
132 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SE INTO THE REGION AT THIS
OVERNIGHT HOUR. GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE SO JUST SOME UPDATES TO
THE TEMP/DEWS/WINDS TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT...SO DID A QUICK REFRESH TO THE
GRIDS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
WITH CLEAR SKIES...VALLEY TEMPS ARE DROPPING OFF QUICKLY THIS
EVENING SO NUDGED TEMPS DOWN TO REFLECT THIS TREND. STILL EXPECT
PATCHY FROST TONIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
...COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND...
17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS IS BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO EAST KENTUCKY
ON NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15
MPH. THE HIGH HAS ALSO CLEARED THE SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ATTM WITH DEWPOINTS
MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL EASE A TIGHTENING TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH...INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN TO EASTERN CANADA.
HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THIS TROUGH PASSES...THOUGH ANY ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
STAY NORTH OF KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER DETAILS...WITH
SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON THE COOP MOS FROM THE GFS FOR POINT BASED LOWS
EACH NIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THIS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS EVEN THE CLOUDS WILL BE FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN. HOWEVER...A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
PLACE DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO MEAN CHILLY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY FROST. IN FACT...THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT EAST
KENTUCKY IS FACING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE UNIFORM TONIGHT THAN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE BY MORNING...THOUGH READINGS IN
THE VALLEYS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S WITH AREAS OF FROST
FORMING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON A FROST ADVISORY
HAS BEEN HOISTED TONIGHT FOR THE CWA. AFTER A COOL AND CLOUD FREE
DAY ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL SET UP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LARGER
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID 20S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND NEAR
FREEZING ON THE RIDGES. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD
FROST AND POTENTIALLY END THE GROWING SEASON...CERTAINLY EXPECT
THAT TO BE THE CASE IN THE VALLEYS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL CONTINUE
THE FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR T AND TD
GRIDS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER.
DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...WENT ZERO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...IN LINE WITH ALL GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS IN
TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE SOME DRY AFTERNOONS SHAPING UP WITH RH`S
UNDER 25 PERCENT EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
LIKELY NEED TO CARRY SOME HEADLINES AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAK FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON THURSDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COUPLED WITH DRY AIR WILL HELP MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. DID MAINTAIN THE SCT050 DECK IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
A WAVE COMES THROUGH AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER FEW GUSTS OUT OF THE
NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH DECENT MIXING
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
121 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT...SO DID A QUICK REFRESH TO THE
GRIDS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
WITH CLEAR SKIES...VALLEY TEMPS ARE DROPPING OFF QUICKLY THIS
EVENING SO NUDGED TEMPS DOWN TO REFLECT THIS TREND. STILL EXPECT
PATCHY FROST TONIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
...COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND...
17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS IS BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO EAST KENTUCKY
ON NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15
MPH. THE HIGH HAS ALSO CLEARED THE SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ATTM WITH DEWPOINTS
MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL EASE A TIGHTENING TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH...INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN TO EASTERN CANADA.
HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THIS TROUGH PASSES...THOUGH ANY ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
STAY NORTH OF KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER DETAILS...WITH
SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON THE COOP MOS FROM THE GFS FOR POINT BASED LOWS
EACH NIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THIS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS EVEN THE CLOUDS WILL BE FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN. HOWEVER...A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
PLACE DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO MEAN CHILLY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY FROST. IN FACT...THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT EAST
KENTUCKY IS FACING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE UNIFORM TONIGHT THAN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE BY MORNING...THOUGH READINGS IN
THE VALLEYS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S WITH AREAS OF FROST
FORMING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON A FROST ADVISORY
HAS BEEN HOISTED TONIGHT FOR THE CWA. AFTER A COOL AND CLOUD FREE
DAY ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL SET UP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LARGER
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID 20S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND NEAR
FREEZING ON THE RIDGES. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD
FROST AND POTENTIALLY END THE GROWING SEASON...CERTAINLY EXPECT
THAT TO BE THE CASE IN THE VALLEYS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL CONTINUE
THE FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR T AND TD
GRIDS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER.
DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...WENT ZERO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...IN LINE WITH ALL GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS IN
TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE SOME DRY AFTERNOONS SHAPING UP WITH RH`S
UNDER 25 PERCENT EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
LIKELY NEED TO CARRY SOME HEADLINES AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAK FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON THURSDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
COUPLED WITH DRY AIR WILL HELP MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. DID MAINTAIN THE SCT050 DECK IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN
A WAVE COMES THROUGH AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...HOWEVER FEW GUSTS OUT OF THE
NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH DECENT MIXING
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1210 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AREA OF MID CLOUDS HAS BEEN EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA LIKELY
LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA THIS MORNING. RAP 700 RH
ALSO SHOWS THIS TREND THROUGH 15Z. PLAN TO KEEP ADVISORY GOING
FOR NOW BUT MENTION MORE LIMITED EXTENT IN WORDING OF STATEMENT.
LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE TO REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY WITH WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY OPENS AND PHASES
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. GOOD MOISTURE
FETCH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO HELP TO MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CALMING
DOWN THIS EVENING. GUSTIER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
612 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AREA OF MID CLOUDS HAS BEEN EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA LIKELY
LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA THIS MORNING. RAP 700 RH
ALSO SHOWS THIS TREND THROUGH 15Z. PLAN TO KEEP ADVISORY GOING
FOR NOW BUT MENTION MORE LIMITED EXTENT IN WORDING OF STATEMENT.
LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE TO REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY WITH WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY OPENS AND PHASES
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. GOOD MOISTURE
FETCH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO HELP TO MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
245 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AREA OF MID CLOUDS HAS BEEN EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA LIKELY
LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA THIS MORNING. RAP 700 RH
ALSO SHOWS THIS TREND THROUGH 15Z. PLAN TO KEEP ADVISORY GOING
FOR NOW BUT MENTION MORE LIMITED EXTENT IN WORDING OF STATEMENT.
LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE TO REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
MONDAY WITH WARMING TREND AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
AS CLOSED LOW OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY OPENS AND PHASES
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. GOOD MOISTURE
FETCH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION IN ADVANCE
OF THE TROUGH WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AREA
DURING THE PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO HELP TO MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL
CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER KOMA AND KLNK WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEWD THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN LOOK FOR SCT MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT ALL
THREE SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SAT MORNING...
PROBABLY BECOMING A BIT GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR KOFK AND
POSSIBLY FOR KLNK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
954 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A SUCCESSION OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. ANOTHER LARGE CIRCULATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN MONDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.UPDATE...MADE A COUPLE MORE TWEAKS TO THE PRECIP FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING NORTH INTO SAN
BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. THE EXTENT OF THE BAND
IS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND TIMING IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE AND UPDATED FORECAST IS
OUT. CELLS WITHIN THIS BAND WERE NOTABLY STRONGER OVER LA PAZ AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY...BUT DEVELOPMENT HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY AS IT
ENTERS OUR FORECAST AREA. STILL...STORMS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR FLASH FLOODING.
&&
.PREV UPDATE...748 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. TWO MAIN EAST-WEST BANDS OF CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
THE FIRST STRETCHES FROM NEAR BAKER CA EAST TOWARD FLAGSTAFF.
HEAVIER CELLS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE HAD RAIN RATES OF AROUND 1.00"
PER HOUR...BUT WITH RELATIVELY QUICK STORM MOTION AND A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT TRAINING THEY`VE ONLY MANAGED AROUND 0.25" OF TOTAL
RAINFALL AS THEY PASS. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA...LIKELY DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS IT ENCOUNTERS
MORE STABLE AIR. STILL..THE LAS VEGAS AREA COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 830 AND 11 THIS EVENING.
THE SECOND BAND IS IN THE DEVELOPMENT STAGE OVER LA PAZ COUNTY. THIS
BAND IS LIKELY TO PUSH NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO MOHAVE AND EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
CLUSTERING OF MODELS SOLUTIONS INDICATING THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
PUSH INTO CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN CONTINUING NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. SHORT RANGE RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH THIS BAND...WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCTION AND HIGHER RAIN RATES. MODEST INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THIS SECOND
BAND...MOST NOTABLY ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE
AS NEEDED.
ANOTHER ISSUE THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
YET ANOTHER WAVE DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND CONTINUING THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT BATCH MAY IMPACT THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY
BETWEEN 300Z-600Z...WITH CIGS GENERALLY REMAINING ABOVE 6-8K FEET.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS COULD DROP TO 4-6K FEET WITH THESE STORMS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 8
KTS OR LESS BUT WILL GUST TO AROUND 20-25 KTS FROM VARYING
DIRECTIONS IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON SEEING THE
MOST COVERAGE. CIGS/VSBYS REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES AS WELL
AS OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE MOST
COVERAGE ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FAVORED OVER CLARK...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. CIGS
WILL MAINLY BE 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA OTHERWISE 10K-14K
FEET. VSBY MAY BE REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO
TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 10 KTS OR LESS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS NYE, CLARK, LINCOLN
AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. CIGS/VSBY REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER AS WELL AS
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
320 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE INGREDIENTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST
AREAS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0-1.4 INCHES
WILL LEAD TO RAINFALL RATES OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE DIFFICULTY LIES IN PINNING DOWN WHEN SPECIFIC
AREAS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SURROUNDING ZONES IN NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE TWO MAIN FEATURES THAT WILL DRIVE THE
WEATHER ARE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND AN
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WITH ITS BASE NEAR 35N/135W. THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION FROM A CLOSED CIRCULATION
TO AN OPEN SYSTEM TONIGHT AND BEGIN HEADING EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE
PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE INCREASING UPWARD FORCING ACROSS
MOHAVE...CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING LEADING TO MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISH.
THE NEXT TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A 50-60 KNOT CURVED JET MOVING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA PRECEDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. BROAD UPWARD
FORCING WILL ACT ON SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TO PRODUCE THE MOST
EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OF THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS SUNDAY MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THE BROAD ENERGETIC TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT THEN A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL
ONLY LOWER TO AROUND 10000 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SO ONLY
THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SPRING
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME SNOW. TEMPS WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREE BASED
ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
MORNING WILL DIVE INTO THE MEAN TROUGH LINGERING OVER NEVADA. THIS
ADDITIONAL SHOT OF ENERGY WILL SPIN IT UP INTO A CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA
BORDER WHICH WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP COOLER CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AT THE LEAST. IT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PULL
AWAY THURSDAY LEAVING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE LATEST
ECMWF INDICATES ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT COULD BE ANOTHER ACTIVE WEEKEND OF WEATHER.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR
LAS VEGAS TODAY AND SATURDAY.
DATE VALUE/YEAR
-----------------------------
10/16 66/2010*
10/17 67/1991
* TIE FROM PREVIOUS YEARS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
PREV DISCUSSION...ADAIR
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1021 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ABOVE 1500
FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S
VALLEYS TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S TONIGHT. SOME AREAS
OF FROST ARE LIKELY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT SATURDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE
WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS NEEDED TO POPS AND TEMPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OTHERWISE, REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAIN INTACT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAVE INCREASED HOURLY TEMPS BY 2 TO 4
DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL
VT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH WINDS JUST SHIFTING TO
THE WEST AT BURLINGTON,VT. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN
VT. HAVE NOTED SLK HAS 4SM -SHSN WITH A TEMP OF 34F. EXPECTING
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET TODAY OF A DUSTING TO
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. JUST GOT A REPORT FROM STOWE MOUNTAIN
THAT WET SNOW FLAKES ARE OCCURRING AT 1500 FEET. ALL IS COVERED
WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST....GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION THINKING TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY
TODAY. WHITEFACE ALREADY DOWN TO 25F WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z...WHICH WILL HELP REFOCUS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. THE NAM12/BTV 4KM AND HRRR SHOW
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND WIND DIRECTION FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z TODAY. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEPTH OF 925MB TO 700MB MOISTURE DECREASES BY 21Z TODAY...AS
NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION BY EVENING...WITH
JUST FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY
DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL WITH LATEST 00Z BTV 4KM SHOWING 0.60 ALL
SNOW AT JAY PEAK WHILE GFS HAS AROUND 0.35...AND THE NAM12 IS ONLY
0.10. GIVEN TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF OUR CWA AND
LACK OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE SYSTEM WITH NO CLOSED
UPPER LEVELS...THINKING QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO COUPLE HUNDRETHS IN THE VALLEY TO A
0.25 OR SO FROM MOUNT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK...AND SIMILAR ACROSS
THE NORTHERN DACKS. AT 12Z THIS MORNING THERMAL PROFILES SHOW SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 1800 FEET ACROSS THE DACKS AND NEAR 2200 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL GREENS...BUT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS...THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO COOL...WITH
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING AROUND 1500 FEET BY MIDDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS BETWEEN 3 AND 4C AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION...MAYBE A FEW WET
SNOW FLAKES WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THINKING ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES SUMMITS OF THE DACKS AND THE NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM JAY PEAK TO SUGARBUSH TO A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES HIGHER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ABOVE 1500 FEET. TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S SUMMITS TO LOWER/MID 40S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES. HAVE NOTED ON SOUNDING STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED AS
REGION IS UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
ALSO...WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...COLD AIR ALOFT..AND WARM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30SNEAR THE
LAKE. GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE...NOT THINKING A FROST WILL
DEVELOP...BUT MORE ALONG THE LINES OF A FREEZE...BUT WILL LET DAY
SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS MOUNTAIN SUMMITS TO MID 20S SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL VT. A FEW LEFTOVER MOUNTAIN
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE PROGGES ARE VERY DRY SO
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST DAY
OF WEEKEND...WITH PROGGED 850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -8C AND -10C.
THESE PROFILES WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MOUNTAIN TOWNS TO
NEAR 40F CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE BETWEEN 900MB AND 700MB. THIS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE TYPE SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS WILL
MENTION HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
VALLEYS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A QUICK DUSTING TO 1 INCH
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR ALL
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL
BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH PROGGED 850MB TEMPS NEAR -10C. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
NEAR 10F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER
TEENS MOUNTAIN TOWNS TO LOWER/MID 20S CHAMPLAIN/SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY ON MONDAY WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUESDAY...PRODUCING HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 40S WARMER VALLEYS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND COLD
FRONT WEAKENS WHILE DEPRESSING SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA. DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. GFS AND
ECMWF THEN GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. GFS
MAINTAINS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WHILE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN WHILE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO OUR EARLIER
FORECAST WHICH INCLUDED CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST CONTAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. DRIER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WHICH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST WOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS...WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH OCNL MVFR CEILINGS. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK. EXPECT OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK IN SNOW SHOWERS TILL ABOUT 18Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...EXCEPT
MVFR PSBL AT TIMES AT SLK/MPV IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS TODAY
THEN DIMINISHING TO NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE VALLEYS WITH OCNL MVFR AND BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK IN
ANY SNOW SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ABOVE 1500
FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S
VALLEYS TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S TONIGHT. SOME AREAS
OF FROST ARE LIKELY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 708 AM EDT SATURDAY...HAVE INCREASED HOURLY TEMPS BY 2 TO 4
DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL
VT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH WINDS JUST SHIFTING TO
THE WEST AT BURLINGTON,VT. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN
VT. HAVE NOTED SLK HAS 4SM -SHSN WITH A TEMP OF 34F. EXPECTING
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET TODAY OF A DUSTING TO
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. JUST GOT A REPORT FROM STOWE MOUNTAIN
THAT WET SNOW FLAKES ARE OCCURRING AT 1500 FEET. ALL IS COVERED
WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST....GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION THINKING TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY
TODAY. WHITEFACE ALREADY DOWN TO 25F WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z...WHICH WILL HELP REFOCUS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. THE NAM12/BTV 4KM AND HRRR SHOW
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND WIND DIRECTION FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z TODAY. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEPTH OF 925MB TO 700MB MOISTURE DECREASES BY 21Z TODAY...AS
NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION BY EVENING...WITH
JUST FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY
DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL WITH LATEST 00Z BTV 4KM SHOWING 0.60 ALL
SNOW AT JAY PEAK WHILE GFS HAS AROUND 0.35...AND THE NAM12 IS ONLY
0.10. GIVEN TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF OUR CWA AND
LACK OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE SYSTEM WITH NO CLOSED
UPPER LEVELS...THINKING QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO COUPLE HUNDRETHS IN THE VALLEY TO A
0.25 OR SO FROM MOUNT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK...AND SIMILAR ACROSS
THE NORTHERN DACKS. AT 12Z THIS MORNING THERMAL PROFILES SHOW SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 1800 FEET ACROSS THE DACKS AND NEAR 2200 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL GREENS...BUT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS...THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO COOL...WITH
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING AROUND 1500 FEET BY MIDDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS BETWEEN 3 AND 4C AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION...MAYBE A FEW WET
SNOW FLAKES WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THINKING ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES SUMMITS OF THE DACKS AND THE NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM JAY PEAK TO SUGARBUSH TO A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES HIGHER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ABOVE 1500 FEET. TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S SUMMITS TO LOWER/MID 40S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES. HAVE NOTED ON SOUNDING STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED AS
REGION IS UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
ALSO...WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...COLD AIR ALOFT..AND WARM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30SNEAR THE
LAKE. GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE...NOT THINKING A FROST WILL
DEVELOP...BUT MORE ALONG THE LINES OF A FREEZE...BUT WILL LET DAY
SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS MOUNTAIN SUMMITS TO MID 20S SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL VT. A FEW LEFTOVER MOUNTAIN
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE PROGGES ARE VERY DRY SO
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST DAY
OF WEEKEND...WITH PROGGED 850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -8C AND -10C.
THESE PROFILES WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MOUNTAIN TOWNS TO
NEAR 40F CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE BETWEEN 900MB AND 700MB. THIS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE TYPE SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS WILL
MENTION HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
VALLEYS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A QUICK DUSTING TO 1 INCH
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR ALL
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL
BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH PROGGED 850MB TEMPS NEAR -10C. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
NEAR 10F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER
TEENS MOUNTAIN TOWNS TO LOWER/MID 20S CHAMPLAIN/SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY ON MONDAY WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUESDAY...PRODUCING HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 40S WARMER VALLEYS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND COLD
FRONT WEAKENS WHILE DEPRESSING SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA. DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. GFS AND
ECMWF THEN GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. GFS
MAINTAINS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WHILE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN WHILE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO OUR EARLIER
FORECAST WHICH INCLUDED CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST CONTAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. DRIER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WHICH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST WOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS...WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH OCNL MVFR CEILINGS. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK. EXPECT OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK IN SNOW SHOWERS TILL ABOUT 18Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...EXCEPT
MVFR PSBL AT TIMES AT SLK/MPV IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS TODAY
THEN DIMINISHING TO NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE VALLEYS WITH OCNL MVFR AND BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK IN
ANY SNOW SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
721 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ABOVE 1500
FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S
VALLEYS TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S TONIGHT. SOME AREAS
OF FROST ARE LIKELY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 708 AM EDT SATURDAY...HAVE INCREASED HOURLY TEMPS BY 2 TO 4
DEGREES ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL
VT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH WINDS JUST SHIFTING TO
THE WEST AT BURLINGTON,VT. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN
VT. HAVE NOTED SLK HAS 4SM -SHSN WITH A TEMP OF 34F. EXPECTING
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET TODAY OF A DUSTING TO
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE. JUST GOT A REPORT FROM STOWE MOUNTAIN
THAT WET SNOW FLAKES ARE OCCURRING AT 1500 FEET. ALL IS COVERED
WELL IN CURRENT FORECAST....GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION THINKING TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY
TODAY. WHITEFACE ALREADY DOWN TO 25F WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY...EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z...WHICH WILL HELP REFOCUS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. THE NAM12/BTV 4KM AND HRRR SHOW
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND WIND DIRECTION FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z TODAY. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEPTH OF 925MB TO 700MB MOISTURE DECREASES BY 21Z TODAY...AS
NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION BY EVENING...WITH
JUST FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY
DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL WITH LATEST 00Z BTV 4KM SHOWING 0.60 ALL
SNOW AT JAY PEAK WHILE GFS HAS AROUND 0.35...AND THE NAM12 IS ONLY
0.10. GIVEN TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF OUR CWA AND
LACK OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE SYSTEM WITH NO CLOSED
UPPER LEVELS...THINKING QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO COUPLE HUNDRETHS IN THE VALLEY TO A
0.25 OR SO FROM MOUNT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK...AND SIMILAR ACROSS
THE NORTHERN DACKS. AT 12Z THIS MORNING THERMAL PROFILES SHOW SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 1800 FEET ACROSS THE DACKS AND NEAR 2200 FEET IN THE
CENTRAL GREENS...BUT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS...THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO COOL...WITH
SNOW LEVELS DROPPING AROUND 1500 FEET BY MIDDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS BETWEEN 3 AND 4C AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION...MAYBE A FEW WET
SNOW FLAKES WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THINKING ACCUMULATIONS WILL
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES SUMMITS OF THE DACKS AND THE NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM JAY PEAK TO SUGARBUSH TO A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES HIGHER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ABOVE 1500 FEET. TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S SUMMITS TO LOWER/MID 40S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES. HAVE NOTED ON SOUNDING STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED AS
REGION IS UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
ALSO...WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...COLD AIR ALOFT..AND WARM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30SNEAR THE
LAKE. GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE...NOT THINKING A FROST WILL
DEVELOP...BUT MORE ALONG THE LINES OF A FREEZE...BUT WILL LET DAY
SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS MOUNTAIN SUMMITS TO MID 20S SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL VT. A FEW LEFTOVER MOUNTAIN
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE PROGGES ARE VERY DRY SO
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST DAY
OF WEEKEND...WITH PROGGED 850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -8C AND -10C.
THESE PROFILES WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MOUNTAIN TOWNS TO
NEAR 40F CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE BETWEEN 900MB AND 700MB. THIS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE TYPE SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS WILL
MENTION HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
VALLEYS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A QUICK DUSTING TO 1 INCH
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR ALL
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL
BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH PROGGED 850MB TEMPS NEAR -10C. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
NEAR 10F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER
TEENS MOUNTAIN TOWNS TO LOWER/MID 20S CHAMPLAIN/SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY ON MONDAY WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUESDAY...PRODUCING HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 40S WARMER VALLEYS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND COLD
FRONT WEAKENS WHILE DEPRESSING SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA. DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. GFS AND
ECMWF THEN GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. GFS
MAINTAINS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WHILE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN WHILE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO OUR EARLIER
FORECAST WHICH INCLUDED CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST CONTAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. DRIER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WHICH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST WOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS...WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY....AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
OCNL MVFR CEILINGS. ALSO...TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL SUFFICIENTLY
FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK BETWEEN 08-12Z. COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK DURING SNOW SHOWERS BTWN 10-18Z.
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS DURING SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE VALLEYS WITH OCNL MVFR AND BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK IN
ANY SNOW SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
413 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ABOVE 1500
FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S
VALLEYS TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S TONIGHT. SOME AREAS
OF FROST ARE LIKELY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DEEP MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY...EXPECT
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z...WHICH WILL HELP REFOCUS
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. THE NAM12/BTV 4KM AND HRRR SHOW
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND WIND DIRECTION FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z TODAY. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEPTH OF 925MB TO 700MB MOISTURE DECREASES BY 21Z TODAY...AS
NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION BY EVENING...WITH
JUST FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY
DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL WITH LATEST 00Z BTV 4KM SHOWING 0.60 ALL
SNOW AT JAY PEAK WHILE GFS HAS AROUND 0.35...AND THE NAM12 IS ONLY
0.10. GIVEN TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF OUR CWA AND
LACK OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE SYSTEM WITH NO CLOSED
UPPER LEVELS...THINKING QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO COUPLE HUNDRETHS IN THE VALLEY TO A
0.25 OR SO FROM MOUNT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK...AND SIMILAR ACROSS
THE NORTHERN DACKS. AT 12Z THIS MORNING THERMAL PROFILES SHOW SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 1800 FEET ACROSS THE DACKS AND NEAR 2200 FEET IN
THE CENTRAL GREENS...BUT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS...THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO
COOL...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING AROUND 1500 FEET BY MIDDAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BETWEEN 3 AND 4C AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION...MAYBE
A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THINKING
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES SUMMITS OF THE DACKS
AND THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM JAY PEAK TO SUGARBUSH TO A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES HIGHER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ABOVE 1500 FEET. TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S SUMMITS TO LOWER/MID 40S
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES. HAVE NOTED ON SOUNDING STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED AS
REGION IS UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
ALSO...WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...COLD AIR ALOFT..AND WARM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30SNEAR THE
LAKE. GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE...NOT THINKING A FROST WILL
DEVELOP...BUT MORE ALONG THE LINES OF A FREEZE...BUT WILL LET DAY
SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS MOUNTAIN SUMMITS TO MID 20S SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL VT. A FEW LEFTOVER MOUNTAIN
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE PROGGES ARE VERY DRY SO
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST DAY
OF WEEKEND...WITH PROGGED 850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -8C AND -10C.
THESE PROFILES WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MOUNTAIN TOWNS TO
NEAR 40F CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE BETWEEN 900MB AND 700MB. THIS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE TYPE SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS WILL
MENTION HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
VALLEYS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A QUICK DUSTING TO 1 INCH
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR ALL
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL
BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH PROGGED 850MB TEMPS NEAR -10C. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
NEAR 10F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER
TEENS MOUNTAIN TOWNS TO LOWER/MID 20S CHAMPLAIN/SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY ON MONDAY WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUESDAY...PRODUCING HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 40S WARMER VALLEYS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT SATURDAY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS
NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND COLD
FRONT WEAKENS WHILE DEPRESSING SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA. DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. GFS AND
ECMWF THEN GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. GFS
MAINTAINS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WHILE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN WHILE
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO OUR EARLIER
FORECAST WHICH INCLUDED CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST CONTAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. DRIER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WHICH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST WOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MAX
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY MOSTLY IN THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS...WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY....AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
OCNL MVFR CEILINGS. ALSO...TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL SUFFICIENTLY
FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK BETWEEN 08-12Z. COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK DURING SNOW SHOWERS BTWN 10-18Z.
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS DURING SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE VALLEYS WITH OCNL MVFR AND BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK IN
ANY SNOW SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
343 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED ABOVE 1500
FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S MOUNTAINS AND 40S
VALLEYS TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S TONIGHT. SOME AREAS
OF FROST ARE LIKELY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DEEP MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MAINE TODAY...EXPECT
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 15Z...WHICH WILL HELP REFOCUS
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN DACKS AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. THE NAM12/BTV 4KM AND HRRR SHOW
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND WIND DIRECTION FOR TERRAIN DRIVEN UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION FROM 12Z THROUGH 18Z TODAY. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEPTH OF 925MB TO 700MB MOISTURE DECREASES BY 21Z TODAY...AS
NORTHWEST WINDS ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION BY EVENING...WITH
JUST FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY
DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL WITH LATEST 00Z BTV 4KM SHOWING 0.60 ALL
SNOW AT JAY PEAK WHILE GFS HAS AROUND 0.35...AND THE NAM12 IS ONLY
0.10. GIVEN TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF OUR CWA AND
LACK OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE SYSTEM WITH NO CLOSED
UPPER LEVELS...THINKING QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO COUPLE HUNDRETHS IN THE VALLEY TO A
0.25 OR SO FROM MOUNT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK...AND SIMILAR ACROSS
THE NORTHERN DACKS. AT 12Z THIS MORNING THERMAL PROFILES SHOW SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 1800 FEET ACROSS THE DACKS AND NEAR 2200 FEET IN
THE CENTRAL GREENS...BUT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS...THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO
COOL...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING AROUND 1500 FEET BY MIDDAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BETWEEN 3 AND 4C AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION...MAYBE
A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THINKING
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES SUMMITS OF THE DACKS
AND THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM JAY PEAK TO SUGARBUSH TO A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES HIGHER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS ABOVE 1500 FEET. TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S SUMMITS TO LOWER/MID 40S
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES. HAVE NOTED ON SOUNDING STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED AS
REGION IS UNDER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
ALSO...WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...COLD AIR ALOFT..AND WARM
LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATER...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30SNEAR THE
LAKE. GIVEN THE CONDITIONS ABOVE...NOT THINKING A FROST WILL
DEVELOP...BUT MORE ALONG THE LINES OF A FREEZE...BUT WILL LET DAY
SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINES. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS MOUNTAIN SUMMITS TO MID 20S SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF CENTRAL VT. A FEW LEFTOVER MOUNTAIN
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE PROGGES ARE VERY DRY SO
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE COLDEST DAY
OF WEEKEND...WITH PROGGED 850MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -8C AND -10C.
THESE PROFILES WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S MOUNTAIN TOWNS TO
NEAR 40F CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME AVAILABLE
MOISTURE BETWEEN 900MB AND 700MB. THIS INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE TYPE SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS WILL
MENTION HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
VALLEYS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A QUICK DUSTING TO 1 INCH
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON FOR ALL
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL
BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH PROGGED 850MB TEMPS NEAR -10C. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
NEAR 10F SLK/COLDER VALLEYS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO MID/UPPER
TEENS MOUNTAIN TOWNS TO LOWER/MID 20S CHAMPLAIN/SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. A WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY ON MONDAY WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. PROGGED 850MB TEMPS WARM TO
NEAR 0C BY 00Z TUESDAY...PRODUCING HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 40S WARMER VALLEYS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 343 PM EDT FRIDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
ANTICIPATED FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE NERN
CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. THE 12Z
GFS SUGGESTS RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF VERMONT BY MONDAY
AFTN...ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPMENT OF S-SW RETURN FLOW. AFTER A
CHILLY MORNING MONDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
INTO THE 44-48F RANGE BY MID AFTN. A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE SAGGING
SEWD FROM ONTARIO MAY BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 50S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NEXT TROUGH AXIS IN WNWLY FLOW
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
(POPS 30-50% RANGE). A STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK...AND COULD BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING/DRYING TREND FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY....AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION IT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
OCNL MVFR CEILINGS. ALSO...TEMPERATURE PROFILES COOL SUFFICIENTLY
FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK BETWEEN 08-12Z. COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT SLK DURING SNOW SHOWERS BTWN 10-18Z.
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS DURING SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ISOLD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN
THE VALLEYS WITH OCNL MVFR AND BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK IN
ANY SNOW SHOWERS. THEREAFTER...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
700 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM SAT...KAKQ RADAR INDICATES NEXT COLD FRONT DRAPED W-E
ACROSS SE VA. TOA TOOL INDICATES THE FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN
CWA AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING. MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON NEXT
SURGE OF CAA COMMENCING THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM THICKNESSES ARE
FALLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS EARLY EVENING...WITH LOW
LEVEL WINDS VEERING NORTH. USED A BLEND OF HIGH RES MODELS TO
FCST WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD SEE ENOUGH DRY/COLD ADVECTION
AND LOW LEVEL MIXING TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. A WIDE RANGE
OF LOWS EXPECTED...WITH UPR 30S INLAND TO LOW 50S OBX...WHERE WIND
ADVECTING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP HERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...DEEP/COLD TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS ON PAR WITH MOS GUID FORECASTING
CHILLY MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60...COOLEST NORTH.
CONTINUED CAA AND NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE BRISK
DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS DURING PERIOD.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRIDAY.
MAIN SIGNIFICANT WX THREAT DURING PERIOD WILL BE PSBL FROST SUN
NIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT. MODEL GDNC CONTINUES TO INDICATE
COLDEST TEMPS SUN NIGHT WTIH LOWS 33-36 DEGS FOR NORMALLY COLDER
AREAS ALONG AND W OF HWY 17. COULD EVEN SEE SOME 32 DEG READINGS
IN ISOLATED AREAS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WDSPRD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
FREEZE WATCH...BUT FROST ADVSY LIKELY TO BE ISSUED WITH NEXT FULL
FCST PACKAGE AROUND 4 AM SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN MON NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH CENTER OVER AREA
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ALL THE WAY TO COAST. MOS GDNC INDICATING
LOWS MID TO UPR 30S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...AND COULD SEE SCT
FROST THREAT EVEN CLOSER TO COAST THAN ON SUN NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TUE-THU WITH RIDGING ALOFT WHILE SFC
HIGH EXTENDS OVER AREA FROM OFFSHORE. LOWS WILL BE IN 40S AND 50S
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES RIDING IN FROM N FRI NIGHT AND SAT. TEMPS
WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN 60S FOR SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SAT...PRED VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LIGHT N/NW WINDS 5-10KT. WILL ADD NON CONVECTIVE LLWS TO
ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE BY MID MORNING SUNDAY
AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY 14-18 KT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS OF 7 PM SAT...LATEST OBS INDICATE NORTH WINDS CONTINUING IN
THE 5-10 KT RANGE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE THIS EVENING WITH SCA HEADLINES
ON TRACK TO BEGIN JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. TOA TOOL INDICATES COLD
FRONT DRAPED W-E ACROSS SE VA AND PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
WATERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND JUST AFTER 02Z. USED A BLEND OF HIGH
RES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR TO FCST WINDS. WINDS INC TO SCA
RANGE THIS EVENING AND WILL PEAK LATE TONIGHT IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT FOR ALL WATERS AND
SOUNDS...EXCLUDING THE BAY...PAMLICO...AND NEUSE RIVERS...THOUGH
OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE PER HRRR FCST. SEAS
WILL BUILD DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT AND PEAK IN THE 5 TO 8 FT
RANGE...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS. WINDS WILL COME DOWN
A BIT TO 10-20 KT ON SUNDAY BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 6
FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FINAL CAA
SURGE PRODUCING N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT OVER MOST OF WATERS SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES ACCORDINGLY. WINDS
DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
W TO E ACROSS WATERS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VRBL
CONDITIONS TUE-THU.
LATEST WAVE GDNC SUPPORTS PREVIOUS FCST WTIH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7
FT SUN NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING ON MONDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
HEIGHTS MAINLY 2-3 FT TUE-THU.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR 10/19 (MONDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 33/1948 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 39/1978 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 33/1970 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 37/1967 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 30/1973 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 36/1992 (KNCA AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL
CLIMATE...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
634 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS A COLD FRONT MOVED SOUTH ACROSS
VIRGINIA. THIS FRONT WILL USHER INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA A SURGE
OF COOLER THICKNESSES TONIGHT. THETA-E VALUES REMAIN DRY...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO NEAR A QUARTER-INCH AS K INDICES
ARE VERY NEGATIVE. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH THE SURGE IN COOLER
THICKNESSES AND A MODEST 700MB SHORTWAVE...LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE MODESTLY OR AT LEAST REMAIN STEADY AND NOTICEABLE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LATE
TONIGHT...THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT ALBEMARLE
TO HENDERSON THAT LOW TEMPERATURES...IN THE DRY AIR...COULD GET TO
34 TO 36 IN MANY SPOTS. THE RAP SURFACE GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOMES
QUITE SLACK BY AROUND 07Z OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. GIVEN
THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT
AREA. CURRENTLY THINK THAT THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD CITIES WILL HAVE A
HARDER TIME COOLING ENOUGH TO GET MUCH FROST...AS WELL AS THE
INTERIOR OF CITIES SUCH AS CHAPEL HILL AND DURHAM...BUT OUTLYING
AREAS OF THEIR COUNTIES COULD CERTAINLY BE AFFECTED. FARTHER EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MID
30S BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A LITTLE LONGER. THANKS TO ADJACENT
OFFICES FOR THE COORDINATION WITH REGARD TO THE ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN LOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NEAR
A QUARTER-INCH...WITH NEGATIVE K INDICES AND SUBSIDENCE...AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONFLUENCE PARTICULARLY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. 850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EVEN
A LITTLE FURTHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND A
SLACK GRADIENT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING 925MB WINDS...QUITE COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
SHOULD END UP...OVERALL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...JUST AROUND
60. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL READILY. WHILE
NOT EXPECTING A HARD FREEZE...ANTICIPATE QUITE A FEW 31S AND 32S
PARTICULARLY OUTSIDE OF THE LARGER CITIES WEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
KMEB TO SCOTLAND NECK. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH
FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN ZONES...WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE
FREEZING OVERALL AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
JUST A TRIFLE MORE NOTICEABLE. THIS FORECAST WILL NOT FEATURE ANY
RECORD LOWS AT KGSO...KRDU...OR KFAY...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE
ESPECIALLY AT KRDU...WHERE THE MAV MOS FORECASTS A LOW TEMPERATURE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST A DEGREE ABOVE THE RECORD OF FREEZING...
SET BACK IN 1948.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...
MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT EARLY MON MORNING IS LIKELY TO PRESENT US WITH
THE CHILLIEST TEMPS OF THIS STRETCH. THE COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE PERIOD... WHILE
UNDERGOING STEADY SLOW AIR MASS MODIFICATION. CLOUDS WILL BE FEW IN
NUMBER TO NONE THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT OVER THE
GULF AND SOUTHEAST STATES (A FUNCTION OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NW MEX
AND ADJACENT CA/AZ) WITH DEEP DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER NC... AND
EVEN THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK VORTICITY MAX LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING WILL HAVE LITTLE NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH... YIELDING A FEW
HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT MOST. A SHALLOW BUT DRY ADIABATIC MIXED LAYER
MON ALONG WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES
(STARTING THE DAY AROUND 45-50 M BELOW NORMAL) SUGGESTS HIGHS OF 56-
62. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO 0-2 KTS MON NIGHT WITH
DECOUPLING... AND WITH CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT LOWS OF 32-38. OUTLYING
AREAS HAVE ONE MORE SHOT AT SOME FROST. MORE OF THE SAME TUE WITH
DEEPLY DRY AND STABLE AIR... ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
LOSING STEAM OVERHEAD... GIVING WAY TO ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WARMING TO
PUSH THICKNESSES UP TO JUST 20-25 M BELOW NORMAL... AS THE WARMER
AIR ALOFT FINALLY STARTS TO WORK DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS 64-68.
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TUE NIGHT... BUT THE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER WITH THE MODIFIED AIR MASS... ESPECIALLY IN
THE SE CWA. LOWS 38-45.
WED-SAT: WARM FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS... THEN BACK TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS... BUT STILL NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN
SIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF COAST/GULF STATES AND
SOUTHEAST STATES WED STARTS TO RETROGRADE IN RESPONSE TO POLAR-
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST
STATES LATE THU/THU NIGHT... AND PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE OF AN
ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH NC. THE ENHANCED NW FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD BRING SOME POCKETS OF WEAK VORTICITY DOWN THROUGH NC
THU NIGHT... BUT ONCE AGAIN THERE IS NO OPPORTUNITY FOR SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION... INDICATING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SKY COVER. THE
LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE EARLY FRI ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE LOW
LEVEL ATLANTIC-SOURCE MOIST UPGLIDE COULD HELP GENERATE SOME
STRATOCU. BUT OTHERWISE... ANY MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW OR FLEETING
FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP... AND EXPECT JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT
WORST LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S
WED/THU... SLIPPING BACK TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FRI/SAT.
WARMEST LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM SATURDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE
SUN...BECOMING 7-12 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE TO ~5 KT AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR
TO SUNSET SUN EVENING IN ASSOC/W THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION.
LOOKING AHEAD: EXCELLENT AVIATION WEATHER /VFR CONDITIONS/ ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. -VINCENT
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 19...
KGSO...28 DEGREES IN 1948.
KRDU...32 DEGREES IN 1948.
KFAY...32 DEGREES IN 1931.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>042-073>077-083-084.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ007>009-
021>025-038-039-073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
430 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...LAST MILD DAY TODAY AS A STRONG BUT DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON NEXT SURGE OF CAA COMMENCING THIS
EVENING. UPSTREAM THICKNESSES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST. USED A BLEND OF HIGH RES MODELS TO FCST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD SEE ENOUGH DRY/COLD ADVECTION AND LOW
LEVEL MIXING TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS
EXPECTED...WITH UPR 30S INLAND TO LOW 50S OBX...WHERE WIND
ADVECTING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP HERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...DEEP/COLD TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS ON PAR WITH MOS GUID FORECASTING
CHILLY MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60...COOLEST NORTH.
CONTINUED CAA AND NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE BRISK
DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS DURING PERIOD.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRIDAY.
MAIN SIGNIFICANT WX THREAT DURING PERIOD WILL BE PSBL FROST SUN
NIGHT AND AGAIN MON NIGHT. MODEL GDNC CONTINUES TO INDICATE
COLDEST TEMPS SUN NIGHT WTIH LOWS 33-36 DEGS FOR NORMALLY COLDER
AREAS ALONG AND W OF HWY 17. COULD EVEN SEE SOME 32 DEG READINGS
IN ISOLATED AREAS BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WDSPRD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
FREEZE WATCH...BUT FROST ADVSY LIKELY TO BE ISSUED WITH NEXT FULL
FCST PACKAGE AROUND 4 AM SUNDAY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LIKELY AGAIN MON NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH CENTER OVER AREA
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ALL THE WAY TO COAST. MOS GDNC INDICATING
LOWS MID TO UPR 30S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS...AND COULD SEE SCT
FROST THREAT EVEN CLOSER TO COAST THAN ON SUN NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TUE-THU WITH RIDGING ALOFT WHILE SFC
HIGH EXTENDS OVER AREA FROM OFFSHORE. LOWS WILL BE IN 40S AND 50S
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES RIDING IN FROM N FRI NIGHT AND SAT. TEMPS
WILL DROP BACK INTO 40S FRI NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN 60S FOR SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SAT...PRED VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LIGHT N/NW WINDS 5-10KT. WILL ADD NON CONVECTIVE LLWS TO
ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE BY MID MORNING SUNDAY
AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY 14-18 KT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...LATEST OBS INDICATE NORTH WINDS CONTINUING IN
THE 5-10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE THIS EVENING WITH SCA HEADLINES
ON TRACK TO BEGIN JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. USED A BLEND OF HIGH RES
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR TO FCST WINDS. WINDS INC TO SCA RANGE
THIS EVENING AND WILL PEAK LATE TONIGHT IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT FOR ALL WATERS AND SOUNDS...EXCLUDING THE
BAY...PAMLICO...AND NEUSE RIVERS...THOUGH OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE PER HRRR FCST. SEAS WILL BUILD DRAMATICALLY
TONIGHT AND PEAK IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL
AND NRN WATERS. WINDS WILL COME DOWN A BIT TO 10-20 KT ON SUNDAY
BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 6 FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FINAL CAA
SURGE PRODUCING N-NE WINDS 20-25 KT OVER MOST OF WATERS SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES ACCORDINGLY. WINDS
DIMINISH QUICKLY LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
W TO E ACROSS WATERS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VRBL
CONDITIONS TUE-THU.
LATEST WAVE GDNC SUPPORTS PREVIOUS FCST WTIH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7
FT SUN NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING ON MONDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
HEIGHTS MAINLY 2-3 FT TUE-THU.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR 10/19 (MONDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 33/1948 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 39/1978 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 33/1970 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 37/1967 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 30/1973 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 36/1992 (KNCA AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL
CLIMATE...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT DRY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...LAST MILD DAY TODAY AS A STRONG BUT DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON NEXT SURGE OF CAA COMMENCING THIS
EVENING. UPSTREAM THICKNESSES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST. USED A BLEND OF HIGH RES MODELS TO FCST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD SEE ENOUGH DRY/COLD ADVECTION AND LOW
LEVEL MIXING TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS
EXPECTED...WITH UPR 30S INLAND TO LOW 50S OBX...WHERE WIND
ADVECTING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP HERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...DEEP/COLD TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS ON PAR WITH MOS GUID FORECASTING
CHILLY MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60...COOLEST NORTH.
CONTINUED CAA AND NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE BRISK
DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT AS THE MAIN STORY WILL BE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF CROSSES THE AREA... MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NW AND OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL START OUT
CHILLY AS CAA HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION...BUT MONDAY MORNING LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN SUNDAY. EXPECT MONDAY LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 30S...WITH POSSIBLE FROST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO
THE UPPER 50 TO LOW 60S FOR BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...BUT REMAIN
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TUES AND THEN INTO
THE 70S WED/THURS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BACK. THURSDAY...THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE AS 00Z GFS BRINGS A
THE COLD FRONT FASTER THAN ECMWF. WENT WITH WPC
AGREEMENT...BRINGING THE DRY COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 PM SAT...PRED VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LIGHT N/NW WINDS 5-10KT. WILL ADD NON CONVECTIVE LLWS TO
ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP JUST OFF
THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE BY MID MORNING SUNDAY
AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY 14-18 KT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...LATEST OBS INDICATE NORTH WINDS CONTINUING IN
THE 5-10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE THIS EVENING WITH SCA HEADLINES
ON TRACK TO BEGIN JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. USED A BLEND OF HIGH RES
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR TO FCST WINDS. WINDS INC TO SCA RANGE
THIS EVENING AND WILL PEAK LATE TONIGHT IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT FOR ALL WATERS AND SOUNDS...EXCLUDING THE
BAY...PAMLICO...AND NEUSE RIVERS...THOUGH OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE PER HRRR FCST. SEAS WILL BUILD DRAMATICALLY
TONIGHT AND PEAK IN THE 5 TO 8 FT RANGE...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL
AND NRN WATERS. WINDS WILL COME DOWN A BIT TO 10-20 KT ON SUNDAY
BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 6 FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 AM SAT...CAA WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS... THEREFORE EXPECTING 15-20 KNOTS SUNDAY AND THEN 15-25
KNOTS INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SEAS 4 TO 7 FT NORTH OF CAPE
LOOKOUT AND 3 TO 5 FEET SOUTH. BOTH NWPS AND WW3 HAVE AN AGREEMENT
WITH WAVES SUBSIDING QUICKER ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
CONDITIONS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR 10/19 (MONDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 33/1948 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 39/1978 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 33/1970 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 37/1967 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 30/1973 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 36/1992 (KNCA AWOS)
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...TL/BM
MARINE...TL/BM
CLIMATE...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
230 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE NORMAL RANGE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS A COLD FRONT MOVED SOUTH ACROSS
VIRGINIA. THIS FRONT WILL USHER INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA A SURGE
OF COOLER THICKNESSES TONIGHT. THETA-E VALUES REMAIN DRY...AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO NEAR A QUARTER-INCH AS K INDICES
ARE VERY NEGATIVE. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH THE SURGE IN COOLER
THICKNESSES AND A MODEST 700MB SHORTWAVE...LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE MODESTLY OR AT LEAST REMAIN STEADY AND NOTICEABLE THROUGH
THE EVENING AND THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LATE
TONIGHT...THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT ALBEMARLE
TO HENDERSON THAT LOW TEMPERATURES...IN THE DRY AIR...COULD GET TO
34 TO 36 IN MANY SPOTS. THE RAP SURFACE GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOMES
QUITE SLACK BY AROUND 07Z OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. GIVEN
THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS...WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT
AREA. CURRENTLY THINK THAT THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD CITIES WILL HAVE A
HARDER TIME COOLING ENOUGH TO GET MUCH FROST...AS WELL AS THE
INTERIOR OF CITIES SUCH AS CHAPEL HILL AND DURHAM...BUT OUTLYING
AREAS OF THEIR COUNTIES COULD CERTAINLY BE AFFECTED. FARTHER EAST
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...THERE SHOULD BE SOME AREAS OF MID
30S BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP A LITTLE LONGER. THANKS TO ADJACENT
OFFICES FOR THE COORDINATION WITH REGARD TO THE ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
PRECIPITATBLE WATER VALUES REMAIN LOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NEAR
A QUARTER-INCH...WITH NEGATIVE K INDICES AND SUBSIDENCE...AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONFLUENCE PARTICULARLY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. 850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EVEN
A LITTLE FURTHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AND A
SLACK GRADIENT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...ALONG WITH DIMINISHING 925MB WINDS...QUITE COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
SHOULD END UP...OVERALL ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...JUST AROUND
60. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL READILY. WHILE
NOT EXPECTING A HARD FREEZE...ANTICIPATE QUITE A FEW 31S AND 32S
PARTICULARLY OUTSIDE OF THE LARGER CITIES WEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT
KMEB TO SCOTLAND NECK. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH
FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
EASTERN ZONES...WHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE
FREEZING OVERALL AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE
JUST A TRIFLE MORE NOTICEABLE. THIS FORECAST WILL NOT FEATURE ANY
RECORD LOWS AT KGSO...KRDU...OR KFAY...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE
ESPECIALLY AT KRDU...WHERE THE MAV MOS FORECASTS A LOW TEMPERATURE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST A DEGREE ABOVE THE RECORD OF FREEZING...
SET BACK IN 1948.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...
MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT EARLY MON MORNING IS LIKELY TO PRESENT US WITH
THE CHILLIEST TEMPS OF THIS STRETCH. THE COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE PERIOD... WHILE
UNDERGOING STEADY SLOW AIR MASS MODIFICATION. CLOUDS WILL BE FEW IN
NUMBER TO NONE THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT OVER THE
GULF AND SOUTHEAST STATES (A FUNCTION OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NW MEX
AND ADJACENT CA/AZ) WITH DEEP DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER NC... AND
EVEN THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK VORTICITY MAX LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING WILL HAVE LITTLE NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH... YIELDING A FEW
HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT MOST. A SHALLOW BUT DRY ADIABATIC MIXED LAYER
MON ALONG WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES
(STARTING THE DAY AROUND 45-50 M BELOW NORMAL) SUGGESTS HIGHS OF 56-
62. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO 0-2 KTS MON NIGHT WITH
DECOUPLING... AND WITH CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT LOWS OF 32-38. OUTLYING
AREAS HAVE ONE MORE SHOT AT SOME FROST. MORE OF THE SAME TUE WITH
DEEPLY DRY AND STABLE AIR... ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
LOSING STEAM OVERHEAD... GIVING WAY TO ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WARMING TO
PUSH THICKNESSES UP TO JUST 20-25 M BELOW NORMAL... AS THE WARMER
AIR ALOFT FINALLY STARTS TO WORK DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS 64-68.
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TUE NIGHT... BUT THE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER WITH THE MODIFIED AIR MASS... ESPECIALLY IN
THE SE CWA. LOWS 38-45.
WED-SAT: WARM FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS... THEN BACK TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS... BUT STILL NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN
SIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF COAST/GULF STATES AND
SOUTHEAST STATES WED STARTS TO RETROGRADE IN RESPONSE TO POLAR-
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST
STATES LATE THU/THU NIGHT... AND PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE OF AN
ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH NC. THE ENHANCED NW FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD BRING SOME POCKETS OF WEAK VORTICITY DOWN THROUGH NC
THU NIGHT... BUT ONCE AGAIN THERE IS NO OPPORTUNITY FOR SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION... INDICATING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SKY COVER. THE
LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE EARLY FRI ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE LOW
LEVEL ATLANTIC-SOURCE MOIST UPGLIDE COULD HELP GENERATE SOME
STRATOCU. BUT OTHERWISE... ANY MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW OR FLEETING
FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP... AND EXPECT JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT
WORST LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S
WED/THU... SLIPPING BACK TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FRI/SAT.
WARMEST LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN AGAIN WITH MIXING ON SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE MORE WIND GUSTS
IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. BEYOND
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND LARGELY INTO THURSDAY. THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS...TOWARD KFAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CEILINGS NEAR
MVFR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OCTOBER 19...
KGSO...28 DEGREES IN 1948.
KRDU...32 DEGREES IN 1948.
KFAY...32 DEGREES IN 1931.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>042-073>077-083-084.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ007>009-
021>025-038-039-073.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...DJF
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE NORMAL RANGE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM SATURDAY...
A BAND OF HIGH SC AND LOW AC WAS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SOUTH OF KCTZ TOWARD HARRELLS. ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW
VOLUME OF MOISTURE AROUND 800MB...THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT 800MB
MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND RAP SOUNDINGS
FROM NEAR KFAY FORECAST DRYING AROUND 800MB THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...WHILE THERE
SHOULD BE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TODAY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE
CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN. K INDICES ARE NEGATIVE...AND
850MB THETA-E VALUES DECREASE DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
WITH MIXING...THE 12Z GSO AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW
GUSTS POSSIBLE AROUND 15KT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TRIAD AND
TRIANGLE. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM
THOSE COINCIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MOS GUIDANCE...MID TO UPPER 60S
IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND MOSTLY AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE...SOLID
LOWER 70S TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ.
TONIGHT...A SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT... AS ANOTHER S/W IN THE L/W
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE FRONT SHOULD BE DRY AND
ONLY DELIVER A COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO CENTRAL NC...ALONG WITH AND
INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN CLOSER TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTED LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
HIGHER WILL NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NEAR 40. EXPECT SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED RURAL USUAL COLD LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST THOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER/COLDER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES... HIGH TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S... WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC TOUCHING 60 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING OVER THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY
MORNING WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON TO DATE.
LOW TEMPS BY MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN LOW TO MID 30S. AT
LEAST A FROST ADVISORY SEEMS LIKELY AREAWIDE FUTURE FORECASTS...
WITH POTENTIALLY EVEN A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...
MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT EARLY MON MORNING IS LIKELY TO PRESENT US WITH
THE CHILLIEST TEMPS OF THIS STRETCH. THE COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE PERIOD... WHILE
UNDERGOING STEADY SLOW AIR MASS MODIFICATION. CLOUDS WILL BE FEW IN
NUMBER TO NONE THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT OVER THE
GULF AND SOUTHEAST STATES (A FUNCTION OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER NW MEX
AND ADJACENT CA/AZ) WITH DEEP DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER NC... AND
EVEN THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK VORTICITY MAX LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING WILL HAVE LITTLE NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH... YIELDING A FEW
HIGH THIN CLOUDS AT MOST. A SHALLOW BUT DRY ADIABATIC MIXED LAYER
MON ALONG WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES
(STARTING THE DAY AROUND 45-50 M BELOW NORMAL) SUGGESTS HIGHS OF 56-
62. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO 0-2 KTS MON NIGHT WITH
DECOUPLING... AND WITH CLEAR SKIES... EXPECT LOWS OF 32-38. OUTLYING
AREAS HAVE ONE MORE SHOT AT SOME FROST. MORE OF THE SAME TUE WITH
DEEPLY DRY AND STABLE AIR... ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
LOSING STEAM OVERHEAD... GIVING WAY TO ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WARMING TO
PUSH THICKNESSES UP TO JUST 20-25 M BELOW NORMAL... AS THE WARMER
AIR ALOFT FINALLY STARTS TO WORK DOWN TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS 64-68.
ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TUE NIGHT... BUT THE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER WITH THE MODIFIED AIR MASS... ESPECIALLY IN
THE SE CWA. LOWS 38-45.
WED-SAT: WARM FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS... THEN BACK TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS... BUT STILL NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN
SIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE GULF COAST/GULF STATES AND
SOUTHEAST STATES WED STARTS TO RETROGRADE IN RESPONSE TO POLAR-
STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST
STATES LATE THU/THU NIGHT... AND PASSAGE AT THE SURFACE OF AN
ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH NC. THE ENHANCED NW FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD BRING SOME POCKETS OF WEAK VORTICITY DOWN THROUGH NC
THU NIGHT... BUT ONCE AGAIN THERE IS NO OPPORTUNITY FOR SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION... INDICATING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SKY COVER. THE
LONE EXCEPTION MAY BE EARLY FRI ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE LOW
LEVEL ATLANTIC-SOURCE MOIST UPGLIDE COULD HELP GENERATE SOME
STRATOCU. BUT OTHERWISE... ANY MOISTURE IS TOO SHALLOW OR FLEETING
FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP... AND EXPECT JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT
WORST LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S
WED/THU... SLIPPING BACK TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FRI/SAT.
WARMEST LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S... BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN AGAIN WITH MIXING ON SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE MORE WIND GUSTS
IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. BEYOND
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND LARGELY INTO THURSDAY. THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS...TOWARD KFAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CEILINGS NEAR
MVFR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
132 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE NORMAL RANGE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM SATURDAY...
A BAND OF HIGH SC AND LOW AC WAS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SOUTH OF KCTZ TOWARD HARRELLS. ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW
VOLUME OF MOISTURE AROUND 800MB...THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT 800MB
MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND RAP SOUNDINGS
FROM NEAR KFAY FORECAST DRYING AROUND 800MB THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...WHILE THERE
SHOULD BE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TODAY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE
CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN. K INDICES ARE NEGATIVE...AND
850MB THETA-E VALUES DECREASE DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
WITH MIXING...THE 12Z GSO AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW
GUSTS POSSIBLE AROUND 15KT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TRIAD AND
TRIANGLE. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM
THOSE COINCIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MOS GUIDANCE...MID TO UPPER 60S
IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND MOSTLY AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE...SOLID
LOWER 70S TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ.
TONIGHT...A SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT... AS ANOTHER S/W IN THE L/W
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE FRONT SHOULD BE DRY AND
ONLY DELIVER A COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO CENTRAL NC...ALONG WITH AND
INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN CLOSER TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTED LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
HIGHER WILL NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NEAR 40. EXPECT SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED RURAL USUAL COLD LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST THOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER/COLDER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES... HIGH TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S... WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC TOUCHING 60 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING OVER THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY
MORNING WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON TO DATE.
LOW TEMPS BY MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN LOW TO MID 30S. AT
LEAST A FROST ADVISORY SEEMS LIKELY AREAWIDE FUTURE FORECASTS...
WITH POTENTIALLY EVEN A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
DRY WEATHER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS BROAD/FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY...AND ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE EXTENDS SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AVERAGE A SOLID 30-
35M BELOW NORMAL...YIELDING MAX TEMPS MONDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60. AIR MASS MODIFIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS (UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S) BY MID WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE DESERT SW. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME NWLY.
THIS SET-UP WILL CAUSE A S/W TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND-NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROPEL A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SEWD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE.
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT IS WEAK AT
BEST SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN PATCHY CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A FRESH
BATCH OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
THICKNESSES AVERAGE 5-8M ABOVE NORMAL SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN EXPECTED FRIDAY AS SFC
FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT THE COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN AGAIN WITH MIXING ON SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE MORE WIND GUSTS
IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. BEYOND
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND LARGELY INTO THURSDAY. THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS...TOWARD KFAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CEILINGS NEAR
MVFR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
917 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM SATURDAY...
A BAND OF HIGH SC AND LOW AC WAS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING...IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SOUTH OF KCTZ TOWARD HARRELLS. ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW
VOLUME OF MOISTURE AROUND 800MB...THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT 800MB
MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND RAP SOUNDINGS
FROM NEAR KFAY FORECAST DRYING AROUND 800MB THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOWN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...WHILE THERE
SHOULD BE UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TODAY THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE
CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN. K INDICES ARE NEGATIVE...AND
850MB THETA-E VALUES DECREASE DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.
WITH MIXING...THE 12Z GSO AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW
GUSTS POSSIBLE AROUND 15KT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE TRIAD AND
TRIANGLE. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM
THOSE COINCIDE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MOS GUIDANCE...MID TO UPPER 60S
IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND MOSTLY AROUND 70 ELSEWHERE...SOLID
LOWER 70S TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ.
TONIGHT...A SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT... AS ANOTHER S/W IN THE L/W
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE FRONT SHOULD BE DRY AND
ONLY DELIVER A COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS TO CENTRAL NC...ALONG WITH AND
INCREASE IN WINDS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN CLOSER TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH EXPECTED LOW TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
HIGHER WILL NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST NEAR 40. EXPECT SOME OF THE MORE
SHELTERED RURAL USUAL COLD LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST THOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER/COLDER AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES... HIGH TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S... WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC TOUCHING 60 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING OVER THE AREA NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY
MORNING WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON TO DATE.
LOW TEMPS BY MONDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN LOW TO MID 30S. AT
LEAST A FROST ADVISORY SEEMS LIKELY AREAWIDE FUTURE FORECASTS...
WITH POTENTIALLY EVEN A FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...
DRY WEATHER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS BROAD/FLAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE TN
VALLEY...AND ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE EXTENDS SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AVERAGE A SOLID 30-
35M BELOW NORMAL...YIELDING MAX TEMPS MONDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND
60. AIR MASS MODIFIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS (UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S) BY MID WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE DESERT SW. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME NWLY.
THIS SET-UP WILL CAUSE A S/W TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND-NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROPEL A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SEWD INTO CENTRAL NC THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE.
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT IS WEAK AT
BEST SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN PATCHY CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A FRESH
BATCH OF COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT THURSDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
THICKNESSES AVERAGE 5-8M ABOVE NORMAL SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN EXPECTED FRIDAY AS SFC
FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT THE COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 915 AM SATURDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH DURING THE PERIOD...FROM 7 TO 12 MPH FROM MID MORNING UNTIL
LATE EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DAYTIME
GUSTS IN THE TEENS MPH TODAY. DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RULE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
NEXT WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...DJF/77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...77/DJF/VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
953 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
OHIO SUNDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR LAKE ERIE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT TO LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING
PULLING THE FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE BY FRIDAY THEN SLOWLY SHIFT INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THE DAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY IS EXPECTED ALONG
WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND HELP PRODUCE
UPWARD MOTION ESPECIALLY OVER AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. 12 UTC
SOUNDING AT DTX SHOWS A WELL MIXED LAYER TO 6500 FT AND RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS CONVECTION MOVING FROM LAKE HURON SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE TOWARD AND OVER NE OHIO AND NW PA. THE HRRR AND OTHER
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE THIS ACTIVITY TODAY WHICH IS
REASONABLE. SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH POPS IN THAT REGION. IT
SHOULD WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL
LIQUID THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK FOR TODAY SO NO CHANGES
PLANNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LAST
REINFORCING FRONT/TROUGH WILL DROP SE INTO THE CWA BY DAYBREAK.
EXPECT LAKE ENHANCED SHRA...MIXED WITH GRAUPEL AND SNOW TO REMAIN
LIKELY IN THE SNOWBELT INTO SUNDAY THEN START TO LESSEN AND SHIFT
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVER OHIO BY SUN EVENING.
THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT SO WILL HAVE THE
BEST SHOT AT SEEING MORE SNOW MIXED IN SO HAVE ACCUMULATION UP TO AN
INCH FOR INLAND NW PA TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SINCE MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE RAIN...SOME AREAS IN NW PA COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO
OF RAINFALL LOCALLY FROM SAT INTO SUN BUT THIS SHOULDN`T CAUSE
FLOODING PROBLEMS.
ONCE AGAIN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SW THE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE TONIGHT AND HOW THIS WILL AFFECT WHO SEES FREEZING TEMPS.
SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH OF A LACK OF CLOUDS FOR THE SW HALF TO SEE
FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT. ALSO...IN THE NORMALLY COLDER AREAS IN THE
INLAND EAST DON`T SEE TEMPS GETTING DOWN BELOW FREEZING IF THE
CLOUDS REMAIN AS EXPECTED. WILL LET BEST COLLABORATION DETERMINE
WHETHER ANY FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THAT AREA. SINCE WE
ARE RUNNING ONLY ONE HEADLINE FOR FROST/FREEZE AT A TIME...WE WILL
EVALUATE THE SITUATION AFTER THIS MORNING`S HEADLINE EXPIRES AT 9 AM
AND DETERMINE COURSE OF ACTION FOR TONIGHT.
WITH MORE SUNSHINE WEST AND CENTRAL ON SUN SHOULD SEE HIGHS START TO
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WHILE NW PA LIKELY SEE LITTLE CHANGE.
THE HIGH CROSSES THE AREA SUN NIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AFTER A
FEW POSSIBLE LINGERING EVENING SHRA IN THE FAR EAST. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE EAST PART OF THE CWA DUE TO
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SO MAY HAVE MORE FREEZE HEADLINES TO
PUT OUT FOR THIS.
INCREASING SOUTH TO SW WINDS ON MON WILL FINALLY BRING WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL AND MAYBE EVEN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE AS THE RELATIVELY WARM FLOW
CONTINUES. HELPING TO BUFFER DOWN THE HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE ADDED
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AIDED BY A WEAK UPPER S/W MOVING EAST THRU THE
LAKES WHICH ALSO ACTS TO BRING A COLD FRONT SE TO NEAR LAKE ERIE BY
TUE NIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHRA AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE ERIE
BY LATE MON NIGHT BUT A LITTLE BETTER CHC WILL OCCUR ON TUE AND EVEN
MORE SO TUE NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING. IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTH. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL SEE SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN
THE EAST INTO THURSDAY BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY
AFTER THAT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AND EVEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOT`S OF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. JUST ONE
NARROW AREA OF CLEAR SKIES REMAIN AS CLOUDS HAVE MOVED BACK OVER
NW OHIO. GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT BKN TO OVC CIGS ALL DAY
MOST AREAS. THE PRECIP IS CURRENTLY LIMITED BUT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE COMING IN CONTINUES TO SHOW IT BLOSSOMING OVER NE OH AND
NW PA LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IN THE
STEADIER PRECIP. EXPECT SKIES TO SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. W TO NW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE SUN COMES UP WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY NE OH AND NW PA INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT STILL SEEING A LOT OF
SPEEDS IN THE UPPER TEENS SO WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES GO
AS PLANNED. PER COORDINATION WITH BUF WILL GO AHEAD AN ADD A
WATERSPOUT MENTION TO THE LAKE FOR TODAY GIVEN THE INSTABILITY. NOT
EXPECTING THE COLD AIR TYPE FUNNELS GIVEN THE WINDS SPEEDS BUT ANY
OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION ON THE LAKE COULD PRODUCE A SPOUT. BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS WILL BE IN THE EAST. TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN ON
THE LAKE THROUGH SUNDAY SO MORE PRECIP IS POSSIBLE THEN.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY SUNDAY EVENING SPEEDS SHOULD BE
UNDER 10 KNOTS ALL AREAS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON MONDAY.
A PRETTY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GET ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK SO MAY EVENTUALLY NEED MORE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IN THE
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT NEAR THE LAKE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ145>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ144.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
804 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL LIFT
OUT...LEADING TO A MILDER WEATHER PATTERN WITH LIMITED
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
STILL A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR...BUT THESE SHOULD BE
GONE SOON...AS THE SUN SETS.
CURRENT FCST PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
RADAR IS FILLED WITH FAST MOVING SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOCALLY WE ARE
VARYING BETWEEN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S DEPENDING ON WHETHER
WE HAVE PRECIPITATION IN PROGRESS...WITH IT TENDING TOWARD WET
SNOW WHEN IT IS ACTUALLY DOING SOMETHING. THE HRRR INDICATES THESE
SHOWERS WILL MAX OUT HERE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE DWINDLING
AS THE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT JET EXIT REGION
SWINGS OFF TO OUR EAST.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR SNOW TO ACTUALLY WHITEN THE
GROUND...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY FOREST REGION.
MORE DOWNWIND OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WET SNOW OR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MEAN MOST AREAS WILL NOT EXPERIENCE
ANY SNOW ACCUMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE EWD FROM THE LWR OH VALLEY LATER TODAY
AND BE CENTERED OVER THE MD/WV PANHANDLE BY 12Z MONDAY. THE
INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND BACKING LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES WILL SPELL AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
MORE IMPORTANTLY THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE.
HAVE CONTINUED THE FREEZE WARNING WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ENDING
THE GROWING SEASON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY...ALLOWING A MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. IT SHOULD
LEAD TO A BRIGHT DAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING...AVERAGING SOME 5 TO
15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE NERN NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
LIFT/PROGRESS EWD THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. UPPER LONGWAVE TROF
ALONG THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH AND CLOSE OFF OVER
THE DESERT SW. THIS WILL ALLOW HEIGHT TO RISE SLOWLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT AN ACTIVE NRN
STREAM PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SERN U.S. FROM EXPANDING TOO FAR NORTH.
A MILDER SPLIT-FLOW WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
PREDICTION SYSTEMS INDICATE THAT PCPN OPPORTUNITIES WILL REMAIN
VERY LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SAID THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN
KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES OVER THE LOWER 48...NAMELY THE NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE EVOLUTION CROSSING SERN CANADA/GRT LKS REGION AROUND
THURSDAY. THE 18/00Z ECMWF IS DEEPER/SLOWER WITH THE H5 SYSTEM AND
FAVORS A MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST THURS
NGT-FRI. THE GFS/GEFS AND GEM ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NRN
STREAM WAVE WHICH ALLOWS UPPER RIDGING TO BULGE NWD FROM THE
GOMEX.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR AT 2345Z SHOWING THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS DISSIPATING...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG...AS SKIES CLEAR AND THE WIND
DIMINISHES. MDLS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS...MAKING THIS A
DIFFICULT FORECAST. STILL WARY OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE OVERLY
OPTIMISTIC MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES NO FOG. OVERNIGHT CLEAR
SKIES/CALM WIND THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY YIELDS AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG...AS THE LATEST SREF AND DOWNSCALED NAM SUGGEST. HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH MENTION OF VCFG WHERE CLIMATOLOGY IS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG...INCLUDING KBFD/KIPT/KAOO/KUNV/KLNS. HOWEVER...WOULD
NOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS AT THESE LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT.
ANY POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVR THE REGION SHOULD ENSURE A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR
CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
302 AM MST MON OCT 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON
TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A DRYING TREND WILL START
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP FROM EAST OF PHOENIX TO NEAR SAFFORD AND
CLIFTON EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS KEEP MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IN THIS SAME GENERAL AREA FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AND MORE SO WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM ENTERS ARIZONA. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THIS SYSTEM IN THE
VICINITY OF ARIZONA THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND
EJECTING EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. THEREAFTER....HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL NUDGE INTO ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND FOR DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...THEN BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME READINGS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL TEND TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/12Z.
ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY E/NE OF KTUS TODAY. BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL W OF KTUS...AND
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 6-10K FT AGL E OF KTUS. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS TIL 19/17Z...THEN SLY/SWLY AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25 KTS TIL 20/03Z. AFT 20/03Z...SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST/NORTHEAST OF TUCSON. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON ON THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN LATE IN WEEK...CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
20-FT WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN
BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1139 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND ALONG CO/KS BORDER. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH HAS
DEEPENED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH SW GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA. A
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF KMCK AND TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE
WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT-MONDAY...WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL PASSING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL RESULT IN PASSING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
LITTLE ELSE. GFS DOES SHOW A LITTLE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR NORTH. DRY
MOISTURE PROFILES BELOW THESE ELEVATED MOIST LAYER EVEN WITH GFS
WOULD LIKELY BE TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME AND PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. LEE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE
WEST AND SHIFT TO SW FLOW ALOFT. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS A RESULT
AND WINDS SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER COMPARED TO TODAY. A VERY
SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN COMPLICATION WILL BE
THICKNESS/COVERAGE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER. CLOUD COVER APPEARS
TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITHIN SW FLOW...SO AT THIS TIME
ANTICIPATED IMPACT ON HIGHS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE CUT OFF SYSTEM IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT FINALLY LIFTS
OUT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OCCURRING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. 48-HOUR QPF TOTALS ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY ARE
ACTUALLY QUITE SIMILAR FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
FORECAST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND 0.50 TO 1 INCH GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE. A FAVORABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH IN MID
LEVELS AND GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE LOWER
LEVELS RESULT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 200 PERCENT
OF NORMAL LEADING UP TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY END WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
128 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS HIGH HAS BROUGHT CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND A DRY AIRMASS. WITH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES SIMILAR OR
IN MANY CASES A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT SHOULD END UP SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT IF NOT A DEGREE LOWER
ACROSS SOME OF THE THE EASTERN VALLEYS. THE RIDGETOPS SHOULD END
UP A A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO AN
ANTICIPATED MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FROST IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED. ACCORDINGLY...THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 3 TO 9 AM EDT ON MONDAY. A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS RIGHT ALONG
RIVERS OR LAKES SHOULD ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL.
OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND KENTUCKY. THIS HAS KEPT THE CLOUDS AT BAY TODAY AND ALSO THE
WINDS LIGHT. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT DID MIX DOWN BETTER THIS
AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 20S. WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S RH VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW 30S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO SERVE WELL FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE
DROP OFF THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS A BROAD AND FLATTENING RIDGE EASES INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST. SOME WEAK ENERGY
WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT IN A RISING HEIGHT
ENVIRONMENT THIS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT
WHILE ALSO FAVORING THE GFS CO-OP MOS...TO A CERTAIN EXTENT...FOR
SITE SPECIFIC LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH A LARGER
RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT DEVELOPING AROUND SUNSET AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FOR THE VALLEYS BY DAWN ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE OUR FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...DO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER BATCH OF PATCHY DENSE
FOG ALONG THE RIVERS AND LAKES ACROSS THE CWA TOWARD DAWN. WITH
THE MODERATING SFC HIGH DOMINATING THE WX SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE
RULE FOR MONDAY ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILDER AS THE HIGH STARTS TO PULL AWAY
OPENING UP A LARGER RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT BUT ALSO TEMPERATURES 5
TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER ACROSS THE BOARD FOR LOWS. PATCHY FOG WILL
ALSO BE FOUND ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS MONDAY MORNING.
STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO
MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR
POPS...ONCE AGAIN ZEROED THEM OUT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...IN LINE WITH ALL GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 70 THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT FOR THIS WEEK WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES
FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE RH`S INTO
THE TEENS. RH WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MORE LOW RH`S COULD RETURN.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK ENOUGH TO LIMIT OVERALL WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY HAVE SOME
IFR OR LOWER REDUCTIONS IN FOG BETWEEN 8Z AND 13Z OR SO...BUT THIS
IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES. THUS...THE TAF SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL ALSO LEAD TO
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP/JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE ERN NAMERICA TROF
THAT DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND IS NOW SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF THE CONUS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT HAS TRACKED E TO HUDSON BAY. SHORTWAVE
IS SUPPORTING A DEEP SFC LOW AROUND 975MB OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE DEEP LOW AND PRES FALLS OF 5-6MB/3HR PASSING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN STEADY S TO SW WINDS WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. WAA AND WINDS HAVE PREVENTED MUCH TEMP
DROP DURING THE NIGHT. EARLY MORNING TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 40F IN
INTERIOR SHELTED LOCATIONS TO AROUND 50F WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
STRONGEST. CLOSE EXAMINATION OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT SOME POCKETS OF ACCAS ARE DEVELOPING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WESTWARD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA.
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS TODAY AS SFC TROF TO THE W APPROACHES AND COLD
FRONT DROPS SE THRU NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS IN
CHECK TODAY...AS WILL INCREASING MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL HELP PREVENT
DEEPER MIXING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL STILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E WHERE GRADIENT SLACKENS LATEST. WITH VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...GENERAL QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HINTS OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...
THERE IS SOME RISK OF -SHRA TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500+J/KG OVER THE FAR SCNTRL THIS
AFTN. THE GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE MORE MODEST...UP TO 200J/KG. IF THE
NAM IS CORRECT...WOULDN`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AN ISOLD
TSTM. A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE HRRR/RAP MODELS IN
CONSTRUCTING POPS FIELDS TODAY AS THOSE MODELS HAVE GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE NCAR ENSEMBLES. THIS RESULTS IN A BAND OF ISOLD -SHRA
POTENTIAL STREAKING INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING...THEN SAGGING S
THRU MID AFTN. ISOLD -SHRA POTENTIAL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SCNTRL
DURING THE AFTN HRS. WITH A MILD START TO THE DAY...OPTED TO RAISE
TEMPS A LITTLE WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 65F BEING THE RULE. IF THERE
HAPPENS TO BE MORE SUN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER.
COLD FRONT WILL DROP S THRU THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITHOUT ANY PCPN
AS FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FRONT IS FCST TO BE WNW...RESULTING IN DRYING
ALOFT PRECEDING THE SFC FROPA. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE
SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA WILL EXIT EARLY IN THE EVENING AND GIVE WAY TO A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FROPA WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN ONTARIO...A SHALLOW BUT
INCREASING NNE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME LOW
CLOUDS...AT LEAST IN THE UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
TOWARD 12Z TUE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE RIDGE...ZONAL TO SLIGHT
UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGING AND DEEP LAYER 1000-500MB DRY AIR WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
SLIDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD FROM ONTARIO ALLOWING NORTH TO EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE TRAPPED BY AN INVERSION AROUND AROUND 2KFT TO 3KFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE PLAINS LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE U.P.
AND CROSS THE U.P. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THE APPROACH OF THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF FORCING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS SHOWN
BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV...THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE HOW THE PLAINS LOW AND THE CANADIAN LOW END UP
PHASING. THE CANADIAN LOW IS NOW PROGGED BY THE EC/GFS TO PHASE WITH
THE PLAINS LOW AS IT SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH THE BETTER INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING AS THEY BECOME IN
SYNC WITH THE FAIRLY POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. IF THE PHASING OCCURS AS IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR FAIRLY GUSTY NW WINDS OVER MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SURFACE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS THE LOW
DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUD FROM THE
WEST...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
IN PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT...BUT IT DOES LOOK AS IF
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING RAINY. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE BROAD
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS USED
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. LLWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH LATEST KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 45KT AT 500FT AGL. LLWS
END AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS E AND PRES
GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. WHILE THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES TODAY AHEAD
OF FEATURE...POTENTIAL IS MUCH TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION IN FCST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS E THIS MORNING AND PRES GRADIENT RELAXES
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM W TO E TODAY. GALE WARNINGS OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...12Z CNTRL AND 15Z E. AFTER A PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NE WITH WINDS RAMPING
UP TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL
FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TUE
NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHES. THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER
THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON WED. AFTER THE TROF PASSES BY LATE
WED...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW...THEN DIMINISH BY LATE THU AS
TRAILING HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. S WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 25KT ON FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE HIGH TO THE
E AND UNDER A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...RJT/ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
A SFC LOW WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AT 07Z WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING INTO EASTERN ND. A SECOND...WEAKER SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN
NORTH CENTRAL SD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INTO CENTRAL ND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WAS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS LOOSENING WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME CIRRUS WAS FLOATING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WAS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS NEAR 30F. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO GENERATE A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS BY 11Z AND TAKING IT FROM
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 169 CORRIDOR IN NE MN THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z.
HOWEVER...A CHECK OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN DRY BELOW 14K FT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO TRYING TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS WHICH IS IN CONFLICT WITH ITS OWN SOUNDINGS.
HAVE REMOVED THE RAIN MENTION FOR TODAY.
THE SFC LOW OVER NW ONTARIO MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND DRAGS THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
THE PLACE OF THE LOW AND PARKS ITSELF IN NW ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. A COLD NE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT. WILL SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE COLD AIR MIXES
WITH THE RESIDUAL WARM AIR OVER LAND FROM DAYTIME HEATING.
MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE HANDLING OF PCPN ON TUESDAY. THE SFC HIGH
REMAINS OVER NW ONTARIO WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
ARROWHEAD THROUGH NW WI. THE ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP SHOWERS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM/NAM12/ARW/NMM ARE ALL DRY
IN THIS AREA. USED A BLENDED APPROACH THAT PRODUCED A RAIN FREE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON HAVING NO RAIN. THE COLD NE FLOW
CONTINUES OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
SUMMARY...THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY WILL
COME FRIDAY. COLDER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE
DAKOTAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO MANITOBA AND/OR NW ONTARIO BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. ITS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. THE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW...AS WELL
AS THE TIMING OF THE RAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT LOW TRACKS...BUT THEY ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE PCPN AS FAR AS THE NORTHLAND IS CONCERNED. THE
GEM...HOWEVER...IS MUCH SLOWER IN TIMING THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BOTH FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND FOR THE TIMING OF
THE RAIN. LEANED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY GET COLDER INTO SUNDAY.
THERE COULD BE LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS
OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS AS THE BACKSIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET OF 40-50 KTS.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS MONDAY AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND... BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE REMAINS VERY
LIMITED... SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS CIGS/VIS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 63 43 50 40 / 10 0 10 40
INL 63 36 51 35 / 0 0 10 60
BRD 67 43 59 43 / 10 0 10 30
HYR 66 43 59 45 / 10 0 10 30
ASX 65 41 53 41 / 10 0 10 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ140.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MCLOVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
300 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS SITTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BORDER THIS
MORNING. THIS IS PUSHING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO UNION AND WALLOWA
COUNTIES AS SHOWN IN THE RADAR. THE HRRR MODEL IS ACCURATELY
PREDICTING THIS PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS THERE FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY TO THE EAST. THEN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TODAY AND
TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE MAY
BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY THIS MORNING DUE TO
CLEARING SKIES AND TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE. SO FAR
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN TO 10 PLUS MILES DURING THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. 88
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS OFF WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE UNDER A
TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WHICH SHOULD MEAN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER. THERE MAY BE A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT TIMES
DURING THIS PERIOD AS MOST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DESPITE THE RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
THIS INVERSION IS QUITE TYPICAL FOR THE REGION HEADING INTO THE LAST
WEEK OF OCTOBER AND BEYOND. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD ALSO BE QUITE
CHILLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND
30S AREA WIDE. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LATEST GFS BRINGS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE
EUROPEAN/CANADIAN HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH WITH
LESS PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID
50S MOUNTAINS. 77
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND/OR VIS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EARLY
IN THIS PERIOD AT KRDM AND KBDN UNTIL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DOWN SLOPE
WINDS ARE ESTABLISHED. ALSO LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK MAY RESULT IN SOME MIST AT KYKM. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CAUSE CIGS BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT AGL AT KPDT, KALW AND KPSC AFTER
09 UTC WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KALW AND
KPDT. SIMILAR CLOUDS MAY ADVECT OVER KDLS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS WILL MENTION VICINITY SHOWERS AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT KPSC AND KYKM. 90
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 65 47 64 43 / 20 20 10 0
ALW 66 51 66 47 / 20 20 10 0
PSC 71 47 68 43 / 10 10 10 0
YKM 71 43 71 42 / 20 10 10 0
HRI 69 46 67 42 / 10 10 10 0
ELN 67 39 66 37 / 20 10 10 0
RDM 60 31 61 31 / 20 20 10 0
LGD 61 43 62 39 / 30 20 10 0
GCD 64 40 62 35 / 20 20 10 0
DLS 68 50 69 48 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
88/77/77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE SISSETON HILLS
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PEEVER GUSTING SOLIDLY BETWEEN 45 AND
50 MPH THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. SISSETON JOINING IN ON THE GUSTS TOO
BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG. RAP 925MB WINDS DID PEAK AROUND 45 KNOTS A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...BUT SHOW A QUICK DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY
AROUND 10Z OR 11Z SO EXPECT THE WINDS IN PEEVER AND SISSETON TO
SUBSIDE BEFORE SUNRISE. STILL VERY MILD ALOFT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
IN PLACE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME
INCREDIBLY MILD TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SISSETON IS CURRENTLY 66 DEGREES WHICH IS RATHER REMARKABLE AT 3AM
IN THE LATTER HALF OF OCTOBER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MBG HAVING RECENTLY TURNED TO A NORTHERLY
WIND. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING BUT NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF COOL AIR BEHIND THIS IT AT ALL. IN FACT...HIGHS TODAY
WERE INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH MANY AREAS IN THE 70S.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND MODELS HAVE CUT BACK ON QPF WITH MOST MODELS ACTUALLY
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS
ACCORDINGLY...BUT WHAT THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH IS POTENTIALLY A
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS WESTERN SD AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SD LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.
COOLER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS DEPARTING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHS ARE
LIKELY ONLY TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLATED TO COME
THROUGH THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SFC LOW WILL BE REINFORCED BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING
EAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GFS NOW SHOWS A GULF MOISTURE FEED
AT THE SFC...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL REMAINS OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS
WHICH COULD MEAN HIGHER QPF VALUES AS WELL. FOR NOW QPF OUTPUT
INDICATES 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL WITH THE
WINDS INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. THIS PUTS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE WIND MAX AND RESULTS IN WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE MAIN JET
IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.
700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE RH AT 700 MB INCREASES LATE AFTERNOON...NEARLY
SATURATING BY MIDNIGHT. THE RH DOES SATURATE JUST TO THE EAST OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE DRY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WOULD INDICATE VIRGA POTENTIAL INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE GROUND MAINLY EAST TONIGHT.
THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS TODAY AND DIMINISH
TONIGHT. 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DOES COOL BRIEFLY LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY DUE
IN PART TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INTO NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD EVENING...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
EXCEPT FAR SOUTH TONIGHT. THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE ON THE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. PREFER THE DRIER MESO MODELS.
MAIN CONCERN IS THE SURFACE WINDS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.
THE INVERSION IS INITIALLY KEEPING THE STRONGER WINDS AT BAY. MESO
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN MIXING DOWN THE STRONGER
WINDS...WITH A RATHER CHAOTIC WIND STRUCTURE. WILL GO MAINLY WITH
THE CONSENSUS WIND SPEED/GUSTS.
EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT NORTH AREAS TOWARD
EVENING WITH A WEAK TROUGH SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH.
.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THEY KEEP THE WARM FRONT WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH AN
ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT
LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM REMAINS
NORTH OF THE AREA.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
ABOVE 850 MB TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT
WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED STEADY INCREASE IN POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED HIGHER POPS IN
LATER FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IF WET LOOK IN MODELS
CONTINUES.
THERE ARE HINTS OF WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TUESDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER MENTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS STRONG WEDNESDAY...THOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR...SO
ELEVATED CAPE MAY NOT BE REALIZED WITH FRONT.
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. CLOUDS TUESDAY MAY
LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTH AND WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING MORE SIMILAR TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. THEY BOTH HAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY...THEN EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500
MB BUILDS INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THESE FEATURES
SHOULD BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL
500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL DURING THIS
TIME. HIGH END CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...THOUGH MAY NEED TO
BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS IF TIMING AGREEMENT REMAINS IN LATER
MODEL RUNS. MILD TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE DURING THIS TIME.
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL END AS WINDS MIX TO THE
SURFACE...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING IN AREAS NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD SAG A LITTLE SOUTH
TONIGHT...BUT STILL MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING.
SHOULD SEE PERSISTENT GUSTS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MILDER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE TO CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WATCH OR WARNING
WITH FUEL LEVELS...TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES FALLING JUST SHORT
OF WARNING CRITERIA.
RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER TUESDAY...ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643-644.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
312 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH POPS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHERN
ARIZONA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO ON MOSAIC RADAR WHICH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING.
SOME DIFFERENCES SEEN BETWEEN MODELS FOR PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY AND
ON MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. ECMWF A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WHILE GFS TENDS TO HOLD THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
FURTHER WEST IN WESTERN WYOMING TODAY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
TODAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE SREF...NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS. DID
INCREASE POPS OUT THAT WAY FOR TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GET A LITTLE WINDY OUT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY
TODAY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING CLOSE TO 40KTS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE OVER RAWLINS. DID INCREASE WINDS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
TODAY OVER GUIDANCE.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES.
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON PRECIP COVERAGE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THIS TIME AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER ARIZONA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PRECIP CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
INITIALLY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY AND JET DYNAMICS
PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL ALSO HAVE UPSLOPE LLVL EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. PW/S WILL ALSO INCREASE BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH TO JUST OVER ONE INCH BY THURSDAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND SHOWS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE BULK OF THE DECENT RAINFALL
RATES FURTHER EAST...MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE JET ON THE 00Z GFS
SOLUTION...PRECIPITATION EXTENT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH SENSE UNLESS
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP BETWEEN 40 TO 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOUNTAINS. THIS APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY WARM
SYSTEM...SO SNOWLEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER 8000 FEET AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME COLDER AIR ATTEMPTING TO
PUSH INTO WYOMING LATE THURSDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...A COOL RAINY DAY IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY
ON THURSDAY.
LATER IN THE WEEK...THE NORTHERN BRANCH AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE JET WILL GRADUALLY PHASE TOGETHER INTO ONE PRIMARY JET
CORE OVER THE AREA. THIS IS WHERE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
STRUGGLING. THE GEM AND SEVERAL ECMWF/GFS MEMBERS SHOW A SECONDARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THURSDAY
SYSTEM...FORMING A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER AS WELL...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE JET POSITION AND
EVOLUTION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS ALONG WITH THE BULK OF
THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW THE SECONDARY TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT
PUSHES EASTWARD...WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA BY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GRADUALLY LOWERED
POP BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
TO LOW 60S ON SATURDAY...AND MID/UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
LATEST IR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE SHOWERS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY
APPROACH SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST COLORADO. MAY STILL SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE RWL TAF SITE AFTER 09Z OR SO.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. LOWERED CEILINGS A
BIT (7-8KFT) ACROSS THE KLAR/KCYS SITES TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE DAMPENS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. THE HRRR IS SHOWING
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND SPREADING EAST TO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN
THIS SCENARIO DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. WE WILL MENTION VCSH IN THE
TAFS FOR NOW WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT BY EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
WINDY DAY TODAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING CLOSE TO 40MPH OUT NEAR RAWLINS AND ARLINGTON AREAS. WE
ARE SEEING INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1143 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
LATEST RADAR LOOP FROM GRAND JUNCTION WAS SHOWING A CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST UTAH MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE A BIT BASED ON THE
LATEST IR LOOP. MODELS DO SHOW SOME GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKING
PLACE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY. AS A RESULT...WE
WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP THE CHANCE OF PRECIP. A BIT IN THAT
AREA. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
LATEST IR/RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA BORDER. THESE SHOWERS
ARE FLARING UP IN AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 315K.
WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LAST LONG. IN FACT...WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT THE SHOWERS BETWEEN 3 AND 5Z.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE RULE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION YESTERDAY
HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND TROUGH AXIS INTO BAJA WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND INSTABILITY WAS TRIGGERING
SCATTERED HEAVY CONVECTION FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH.
LIGHTER SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING FROM EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
PLAINS LEESIDE TROUGH AND RIDGE TO THE WEST WAS GENERATING GUSTY WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COWBOY STATE. WARM TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE WITH READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE PLAINS.
AFTER THE RECENT STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES...A TREND
TOWARD COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TUESDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AS
THE MAIN LOW CUTS OFF OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION WILL PRODUCE PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY INCREASE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR THE PLAINS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ONTO THE PLAINS MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING LATE. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH HE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG AND WEST OF
THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FROPA TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
5 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
A MUCH MORE SEASONAL PERIOD SHAPING UP WED-SUN WITH PRECIP CHANCES
RETURNING PRIMARILY WED-THU. THE PATTERN WILL BE SPLIT ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW OVR THE SW CONUS WILL BE DETACHED FROM THE NRN STREAM.
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE EVENTUAL
PHASING OF THIS UPPER LOW WITH THE NRN STREAM ON THU. BEFORE THEN...
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND UNSETTLED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR THE CO STATELINE AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW PREVAILS. DO NOT EXPECT A WASHOUT ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH A COOL...
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY DAY IS ANTICIPATED. THE CLOSED SW CONUS LOW OPENS
THURSDAY...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE
WRN PLAINS. ALL 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THURSDAY TO PROVIDE
THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OF THE WEEK. WILL LIKELY NEED TO BOOST POPS
MORE OVR THE COMING DAYS AS CONFIDENCE OF THIS SYSTEM GROWS. GIVEN
THE WARMER ORIGIN OF THE SW CONUS UPPER-LOW DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO
FALL MUCH BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH IS HIGHS IN THE 50S/LOW 60S.
THE PHASED SYSTEM DEPARTS EAST ON FRIDAY...GRADUALLY BRINGING AN END
TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AT
THIS POINT WITH TEMPERATURES TRYING TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 60S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
LATEST IR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE SHOWERS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THEY
APPROACH SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST COLORADO. MAY STILL SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE RWL TAF SITE AFTER 09Z OR SO.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. WE DID LOWER CEILINGS
A BIT (7-8KFT) ACROSS THE LAR/CYS TAF SITES TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE SHORTWAVE DAMPENS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. THE HRRR IS
SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING EAST TO THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT
REAL CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. WE WILL
MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR NOW WITH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT BY
EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015
MILD...BREEZY AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. LOWEST HUMIDITIES
WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. COOLER
AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REC
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...CAH
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
956 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Going forecast is largely on track. Dry air is allowing
temperatures to rise nicely. VAD wind profile from our radar is
showing 35-40 knots at an elevation of 1500-2000 feet, and this is
mixing down with the abundant sunshine. Wind gusts across the
northern third of the forecast area are already starting to
approach 30 mph, with a 35 mph gusts observed on the 9 am
observation from Bloomington. Recent update mainly adjusted
high temperatures up a degree or two across the western CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Fire weather concerns highlight the short term. Increasing winds
under a tightening pressure gradient will be the controlling factor
as to what counties are included in a Red Flag Warning for extreme
fire weather conditions. Very low RH and dry fuels will be present
in all of our forecast area this afternoon, but the strongest winds
of 15-25 mph gusting to 30 mph will be mainly confined to our
western and northern counties. We upgraded all of the counties that
were in a Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning, and added
additional counties across the north. This includes our counties NW
of the IL river, with the addition of Woodford, Tazewell and McLean
counties.
The dry airmass will preclude much in the way of cloud cover, with
full sun aiding in producing a deep mixing layer to tap into the
strong mid-level winds.
Temperatures today will begin an upward trend, as brisk southwest
winds usher milder conditions into IL. Highs should top out 7 to 10F
deg warmer than yesterday, with readings in the upper 60s southeast
of I-70, and low to mid 70s west of I-55.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Surface high pressure sliding to the east will leave the Midwest in
more southerly flow, continuing the unseasonably warm days. Central
Illinois will see max temps in the 70s tomorrow...and through the
mid to upper 70s by Wednesday, with some locations in the lower 80s.
Deep upper low passing over Hudson Bay Mon-Tues dragging a front
across the Midwest. Models continue to introduce some precip to the
northwestern portions of the state. Have started trending in some
chance pops nw of the Illinois River Valley this morning for
overnight Tuesday...but in general, the front is not quite overrun
with precip. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are hinting at some
scattered activity along the boundary...most of it to the north.
Front is starting to slow somewhat in the push through the
region...and some sct activity lingering into Wednesday in the
models. Have kept the forecast somewhat conservative for now,
keeping to slights during the work week. Cooler temperatures follow
for the end of the week behind the front. Beyond that, the desert SW
low finally kicks out and through the Midwest bringing the best
precip chances in the forecast for this weekend...Friday night and
Saturday. Depending on the location of the boundary in the Midwest
for Saturday`s max heat of the day, may need to introduce some
scattered thunder for Saturday afternoon in the next couple runs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
VFR conditions are expected thru tonight. The main concern will
be with the strong southerly winds today. Still looking at a
period of LLWS early through 14z this morning before winds
increase. After 15z, sustained winds should climb to 15 to 20 kts, with
some gusts up to 30 kts at times late this morning through mid
afternoon. The gusty south to southwest winds will gradually
subside after 02z Tue with sustained winds ranging from 10 to 15
kts overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Already starting to see wind gusts of 25-30 mph across the
northern third of the forecast area, with gusts around 35 mph in
Bloomington. The pressure gradient will remain tight through the
afternoon, keeping the winds gusting over 30 mph across the
northern half of the forecast area. Latest HRRR and RAP guidance
suggest the highest winds will be through early afternoon as the
core of the low level jet gets mixed toward the surface. Dew
points in the upper 20s to lower 30s already, and some modest
increase is possible west of I-55 this afternoon, but
significantly warmer temperatures will offset that and humidity
values should be 20-25%. No changes anticipated to the Red Flag
Warning at this time, with the alignment set based on the location
of the highest winds.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Shimon
FIRE WEATHER...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE ERN NAMERICA TROF
THAT DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND IS NOW SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF THE CONUS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT HAS TRACKED E TO HUDSON BAY. SHORTWAVE
IS SUPPORTING A DEEP SFC LOW AROUND 975MB OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE DEEP LOW AND PRES FALLS OF 5-6MB/3HR PASSING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN STEADY S TO SW WINDS WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. WAA AND WINDS HAVE PREVENTED MUCH TEMP
DROP DURING THE NIGHT. EARLY MORNING TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 40F IN
INTERIOR SHELTED LOCATIONS TO AROUND 50F WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
STRONGEST. CLOSE EXAMINATION OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT SOME POCKETS OF ACCAS ARE DEVELOPING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WESTWARD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA.
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS TODAY AS SFC TROF TO THE W APPROACHES AND COLD
FRONT DROPS SE THRU NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS IN
CHECK TODAY...AS WILL INCREASING MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL HELP PREVENT
DEEPER MIXING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL STILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E WHERE GRADIENT SLACKENS LATEST. WITH VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...GENERAL QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HINTS OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...
THERE IS SOME RISK OF -SHRA TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500+J/KG OVER THE FAR SCNTRL THIS
AFTN. THE GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE MORE MODEST...UP TO 200J/KG. IF THE
NAM IS CORRECT...WOULDN`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AN ISOLD
TSTM. A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE HRRR/RAP MODELS IN
CONSTRUCTING POPS FIELDS TODAY AS THOSE MODELS HAVE GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE NCAR ENSEMBLES. THIS RESULTS IN A BAND OF ISOLD -SHRA
POTENTIAL STREAKING INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING...THEN SAGGING S
THRU MID AFTN. ISOLD -SHRA POTENTIAL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SCNTRL
DURING THE AFTN HRS. WITH A MILD START TO THE DAY...OPTED TO RAISE
TEMPS A LITTLE WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 65F BEING THE RULE. IF THERE
HAPPENS TO BE MORE SUN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER.
COLD FRONT WILL DROP S THRU THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITHOUT ANY PCPN
AS FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FRONT IS FCST TO BE WNW...RESULTING IN DRYING
ALOFT PRECEDING THE SFC FROPA. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE
SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA WILL EXIT EARLY IN THE EVENING AND GIVE WAY TO A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FROPA WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN ONTARIO...A SHALLOW BUT
INCREASING NNE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME LOW
CLOUDS...AT LEAST IN THE UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
TOWARD 12Z TUE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE RIDGE...ZONAL TO SLIGHT
UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGING AND DEEP LAYER 1000-500MB DRY AIR WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
SLIDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD FROM ONTARIO ALLOWING NORTH TO EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE TRAPPED BY AN INVERSION AROUND AROUND 2KFT TO 3KFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE PLAINS LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE U.P.
AND CROSS THE U.P. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THE APPROACH OF THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF FORCING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS SHOWN
BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV...THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE HOW THE PLAINS LOW AND THE CANADIAN LOW END UP
PHASING. THE CANADIAN LOW IS NOW PROGGED BY THE EC/GFS TO PHASE WITH
THE PLAINS LOW AS IT SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH THE BETTER INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING AS THEY BECOME IN
SYNC WITH THE FAIRLY POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. IF THE PHASING OCCURS AS IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR FAIRLY GUSTY NW WINDS OVER MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SURFACE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS THE LOW
DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUD FROM THE
WEST...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
IN PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT...BUT IT DOES LOOK AS IF
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING RAINY. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE BROAD
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS USED
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. ONGOING LLWS WILL END IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HRS AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS E AND DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS. ISOLD
-SHRA/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN FCST. PLUS...IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR...
CONDITIONS WON`T FALL BLO VFR. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. THE SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE N TO NE WIND BEHIND FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS BEFORE 12Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS E THIS MORNING AND PRES GRADIENT RELAXES
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM W TO E TODAY. GALE WARNINGS OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...12Z CNTRL AND 15Z E. AFTER A PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NE WITH WINDS RAMPING
UP TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL
FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TUE
NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHES. THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER
THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON WED. AFTER THE TROF PASSES BY LATE
WED...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW...THEN DIMINISH BY LATE THU AS
TRAILING HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. S WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 25KT ON FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE HIGH TO THE
E AND UNDER A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
632 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
A SFC LOW WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AT 07Z WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING INTO EASTERN ND. A SECOND...WEAKER SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN
NORTH CENTRAL SD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INTO CENTRAL ND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WAS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS LOOSENING WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME CIRRUS WAS FLOATING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WAS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS NEAR 30F. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO GENERATE A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS BY 11Z AND TAKING IT FROM
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 169 CORRIDOR IN NE MN THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z.
HOWEVER...A CHECK OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN DRY BELOW 14K FT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO TRYING TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS WHICH IS IN CONFLICT WITH ITS OWN SOUNDINGS.
HAVE REMOVED THE RAIN MENTION FOR TODAY.
THE SFC LOW OVER NW ONTARIO MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND DRAGS THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
THE PLACE OF THE LOW AND PARKS ITSELF IN NW ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. A COLD NE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT. WILL SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE COLD AIR MIXES
WITH THE RESIDUAL WARM AIR OVER LAND FROM DAYTIME HEATING.
MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE HANDLING OF PCPN ON TUESDAY. THE SFC HIGH
REMAINS OVER NW ONTARIO WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
ARROWHEAD THROUGH NW WI. THE ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP SHOWERS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM/NAM12/ARW/NMM ARE ALL DRY
IN THIS AREA. USED A BLENDED APPROACH THAT PRODUCED A RAIN FREE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON HAVING NO RAIN. THE COLD NE FLOW
CONTINUES OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
SUMMARY...THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY WILL
COME FRIDAY. COLDER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE
DAKOTAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO MANITOBA AND/OR NW ONTARIO BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. ITS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. THE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW...AS WELL
AS THE TIMING OF THE RAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT LOW TRACKS...BUT THEY ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE PCPN AS FAR AS THE NORTHLAND IS CONCERNED. THE
GEM...HOWEVER...IS MUCH SLOWER IN TIMING THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BOTH FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND FOR THE TIMING OF
THE RAIN. LEANED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY GET COLDER INTO SUNDAY.
THERE COULD BE LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN A SWITCH TO
NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BECOME ENE TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STRONG LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDLH BY DAWN. IT IS POSSIBLE
THE MORE HUMID FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR COULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUD
COVER AT KDLH AROUND OR AFTER DAWN...BUT DO NOT YET HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN ITS OCCURRENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 63 43 50 40 / 10 0 10 40
INL 63 36 51 35 / 0 0 10 60
BRD 67 43 59 43 / 10 0 10 30
HYR 66 43 59 45 / 10 0 10 30
ASX 65 41 53 41 / 10 0 10 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
839 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...PATCHY FOG WAS LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN/KITTITAS VALLEY WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEVADA WAS SPINNING MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO
OUR BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO WA/OR
AND SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
TODAY. ELSEWHERE SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. OTHER THAN A FEW
MODIFICATIONS TO AFTN TEMPS AND POPS...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS SITTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BORDER THIS
MORNING. THIS IS PUSHING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO UNION AND WALLOWA
COUNTIES AS SHOWN IN THE RADAR. THE HRRR MODEL IS ACCURATELY
PREDICTING THIS PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS THERE FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY TO THE EAST. THEN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TODAY AND
TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE MAY
BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY THIS MORNING DUE TO
CLEARING SKIES AND TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE. SO FAR
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN TO 10 PLUS MILES DURING THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. 88
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS OFF WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE UNDER A
TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WHICH SHOULD MEAN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER. THERE MAY BE A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT TIMES
DURING THIS PERIOD AS MOST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DESPITE THE RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
THIS INVERSION IS QUITE TYPICAL FOR THE REGION HEADING INTO THE LAST
WEEK OF OCTOBER AND BEYOND. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD ALSO BE QUITE
CHILLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND
30S AREA WIDE. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LATEST GFS BRINGS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE
EUROPEAN/CANADIAN HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH WITH
LESS PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID
50S MOUNTAINS. 77
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EARLY
IN THIS MORNING AT KRDM AND KBDN....IF SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS GO
CALM FOR A TIME SOME PATCHY THICKER FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP HERE NEAR
DAYBREAK. LIFR FOG IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT THE PRINEVILLE
AIRPORT EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK MAY RESULT IN SOME VFR MIST AT KYKM. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE CIGS BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT AGL AT KPDT, KALW
AND KPSC THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF KALW AND KPDT. A BKN CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 8000 TO
10000 FT AGL IS ADVECTING OVER KDLS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS WILL MENTION VICINITY SHOWERS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT KYKM. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WINDS BETWEEN 10-
20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS. 77
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 65 47 64 43 / 20 20 10 0
ALW 66 51 66 47 / 20 20 10 0
PSC 71 47 68 43 / 10 10 10 0
YKM 71 43 71 42 / 20 10 10 0
HRI 69 46 67 42 / 10 10 10 0
ELN 67 39 66 37 / 20 10 10 0
RDM 60 31 61 31 / 20 20 10 0
LGD 61 43 62 39 / 60 20 10 0
GCD 64 40 62 35 / 20 20 10 0
DLS 68 50 69 48 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
97/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PENDLETON OR
440 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS SITTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BORDER THIS
MORNING. THIS IS PUSHING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO UNION AND WALLOWA
COUNTIES AS SHOWN IN THE RADAR. THE HRRR MODEL IS ACCURATELY
PREDICTING THIS PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS THERE FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY TO THE EAST. THEN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TODAY AND
TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE MAY
BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY THIS MORNING DUE TO
CLEARING SKIES AND TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE. SO FAR
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN TO 10 PLUS MILES DURING THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. 88
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS OFF WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE UNDER A
TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WHICH SHOULD MEAN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER. THERE MAY BE A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT TIMES
DURING THIS PERIOD AS MOST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DESPITE THE RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
THIS INVERSION IS QUITE TYPICAL FOR THE REGION HEADING INTO THE LAST
WEEK OF OCTOBER AND BEYOND. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD ALSO BE QUITE
CHILLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND
30S AREA WIDE. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LATEST GFS BRINGS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE
EUROPEAN/CANADIAN HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH WITH
LESS PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID
50S MOUNTAINS. 77
&&
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES EARLY
IN THIS MORNING AT KRDM AND KBDN....IF SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS GO
CALM FOR A TIME SOME PATCHY THICKER FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP HERE NEAR
DAYBREAK. LIFR FOG IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT THE PRINEVILLE
AIRPORT EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CLEARING
TOWARDS DAYBREAK MAY RESULT IN SOME VFR MIST AT KYKM. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE CIGS BETWEEN 6000 AND 8000 FT AGL AT KPDT, KALW
AND KPSC THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF KALW AND KPDT. A BKN CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 8000 TO
10000 FT AGL IS ADVECTING OVER KDLS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS WILL MENTION VICINITY SHOWERS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT KYKM. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WINDS BETWEEN 10-
20KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST TERMINALS. 77
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 65 47 64 43 / 20 20 10 0
ALW 66 51 66 47 / 20 20 10 0
PSC 71 47 68 43 / 10 10 10 0
YKM 71 43 71 42 / 20 10 10 0
HRI 69 46 67 42 / 10 10 10 0
ELN 67 39 66 37 / 20 10 10 0
RDM 60 31 61 31 / 20 20 10 0
LGD 61 43 62 39 / 30 20 10 0
GCD 64 40 62 35 / 20 20 10 0
DLS 68 50 69 48 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
88/77/77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1025 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
SUNNY SKIES WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5
TO 15 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE SISSETON HILLS
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PEEVER GUSTING SOLIDLY BETWEEN 45 AND
50 MPH THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. SISSETON JOINING IN ON THE GUSTS TOO
BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG. RAP 925MB WINDS DID PEAK AROUND 45 KNOTS A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...BUT SHOW A QUICK DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY
AROUND 10Z OR 11Z SO EXPECT THE WINDS IN PEEVER AND SISSETON TO
SUBSIDE BEFORE SUNRISE. STILL VERY MILD ALOFT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
IN PLACE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME
INCREDIBLY MILD TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SISSETON IS CURRENTLY 66 DEGREES WHICH IS RATHER REMARKABLE AT 3AM
IN THE LATTER HALF OF OCTOBER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MBG HAVING RECENTLY TURNED TO A NORTHERLY
WIND. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING BUT NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF COOL AIR BEHIND THIS IT AT ALL. IN FACT...HIGHS TODAY
WERE INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH MANY AREAS IN THE 70S.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND MODELS HAVE CUT BACK ON QPF WITH MOST MODELS ACTUALLY
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS
ACCORDINGLY...BUT WHAT THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH IS POTENTIALLY A
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS WESTERN SD AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SD LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.
COOLER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS DEPARTING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHS ARE
LIKELY ONLY TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLATED TO COME
THROUGH THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SFC LOW WILL BE REINFORCED BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING
EAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GFS NOW SHOWS A GULF MOISTURE FEED
AT THE SFC...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL REMAINS OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS
WHICH COULD MEAN HIGHER QPF VALUES AS WELL. FOR NOW QPF OUTPUT
INDICATES 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
629 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE SISSETON HILLS
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PEEVER GUSTING SOLIDLY BETWEEN 45 AND
50 MPH THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. SISSETON JOINING IN ON THE GUSTS TOO
BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG. RAP 925MB WINDS DID PEAK AROUND 45 KNOTS A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...BUT SHOW A QUICK DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY
AROUND 10Z OR 11Z SO EXPECT THE WINDS IN PEEVER AND SISSETON TO
SUBSIDE BEFORE SUNRISE. STILL VERY MILD ALOFT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
IN PLACE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME
INCREDIBLY MILD TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SISSETON IS CURRENTLY 66 DEGREES WHICH IS RATHER REMARKABLE AT 3AM
IN THE LATTER HALF OF OCTOBER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MBG HAVING RECENTLY TURNED TO A NORTHERLY
WIND. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING BUT NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF COOL AIR BEHIND THIS IT AT ALL. IN FACT...HIGHS TODAY
WERE INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH MANY AREAS IN THE 70S.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND MODELS HAVE CUT BACK ON QPF WITH MOST MODELS ACTUALLY
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS
ACCORDINGLY...BUT WHAT THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH IS POTENTIALLY A
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS WESTERN SD AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SD LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.
COOLER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS DEPARTING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHS ARE
LIKELY ONLY TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLATED TO COME
THROUGH THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SFC LOW WILL BE REINFORCED BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING
EAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GFS NOW SHOWS A GULF MOISTURE FEED
AT THE SFC...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL REMAINS OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS
WHICH COULD MEAN HIGHER QPF VALUES AS WELL. FOR NOW QPF OUTPUT
INDICATES 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1033 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
APPALACHIANSAND LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY. IN ADDITION THERE IS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. 14Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM MILWAUKEE INDICATES
WINDS OF 45 KTS AT 2000FT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 KTS WITH
AFTERNOON MIXING. HIGHS ON TRACK TO BE NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
14Z TAMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF MILWAUKEE INDICATES WINDS OF 45 KTS AT
2000FT. WITH AFTERNOON MIXING COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS
AND MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE THIS MORNING IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HOISTED A GALE
WARNING FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT SOUTHWARD TO WINTHROP HARBOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...SHOULD SEE PERSISTENT GUSTS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE TODAY.
SPM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BUMPED UP WINDS AND GUSTS A FEW KNOTS FOR TODAY. MIN RH VALUES
STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL WITH THE
WINDS INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. THIS PUTS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE WIND MAX AND RESULTS IN WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE MAIN JET
IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES.
700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS WEAK...BUT DOES INCREASE EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE RH AT 700 MB INCREASES LATE AFTERNOON...NEARLY
SATURATING BY MIDNIGHT. THE RH DOES SATURATE JUST TO THE EAST OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE DRY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WOULD INDICATE VIRGA POTENTIAL INITIALLY...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD REACH THE GROUND MAINLY EAST TONIGHT.
THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS TODAY AND DIMINISH
TONIGHT. 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DOES COOL BRIEFLY LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY DUE
IN PART TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INTO NORTHERN AREAS TOWARD EVENING...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
EXCEPT FAR SOUTH TONIGHT. THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE ON THE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. PREFER THE DRIER MESO MODELS.
MAIN CONCERN IS THE SURFACE WINDS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.
THE INVERSION IS INITIALLY KEEPING THE STRONGER WINDS AT BAY. MESO
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN MIXING DOWN THE STRONGER
WINDS...WITH A RATHER CHAOTIC WIND STRUCTURE. WILL GO MAINLY WITH
THE CONSENSUS WIND SPEED/GUSTS.
EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO EVENTUALLY MIX DOWN WITH SOME GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT NORTH AREAS TOWARD
EVENING WITH A WEAK TROUGH SAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THEY KEEP THE WARM FRONT WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY...THEN SHIFT IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. THE LOW THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH AN
ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH WITH THE COLD FRONT
LATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM REMAINS
NORTH OF THE AREA.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
ABOVE 850 MB TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT
WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED STEADY INCREASE IN POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED HIGHER POPS IN
LATER FORECASTS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IF WET LOOK IN MODELS
CONTINUES.
THERE ARE HINTS OF WEAK ELEVATED CAPE TUESDAY ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER MENTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS STRONG WEDNESDAY...THOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR...SO
ELEVATED CAPE MAY NOT BE REALIZED WITH FRONT.
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY...WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. CLOUDS TUESDAY MAY
LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTH AND WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING MORE SIMILAR TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. THEY BOTH HAVE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY...THEN EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AT 500
MB BUILDS INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. THESE FEATURES
SHOULD BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TIMING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL
500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL DURING THIS
TIME. HIGH END CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...THOUGH MAY NEED TO
BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS IF TIMING AGREEMENT REMAINS IN LATER
MODEL RUNS. MILD TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE DURING THIS TIME.
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL END AS WINDS MIX TO THE
SURFACE...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING IN AREAS NORTH OF
MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD SAG A LITTLE SOUTH
TONIGHT...BUT STILL MAINLY VFR.
MARINE...
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING.
SHOULD SEE PERSISTENT GUSTS AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
MILDER AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE TO CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WATCH OR WARNING
WITH FUEL LEVELS...TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES FALLING JUST SHORT
OF WARNING CRITERIA.
RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER TUESDAY...ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY
FOR LMZ645-646.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643-644.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
535 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM WITH POPS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHERN
ARIZONA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO ON MOSAIC RADAR WHICH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING.
SOME DIFFERENCES SEEN BETWEEN MODELS FOR PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY AND
ON MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. ECMWF A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WHILE GFS TENDS TO HOLD THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
FURTHER WEST IN WESTERN WYOMING TODAY. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
TODAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE SREF...NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS. DID
INCREASE POPS OUT THAT WAY FOR TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GET A LITTLE WINDY OUT ACROSS CARBON COUNTY
TODAY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING CLOSE TO 40KTS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE OVER RAWLINS. DID INCREASE WINDS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
TODAY OVER GUIDANCE.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES.
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON PRECIP COVERAGE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THIS TIME AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER ARIZONA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE SEASONAL WEATHER PATTERN LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH PRECIP CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADDITION TO COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE GEM AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
INITIALLY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS AN AREA OF INSTABILITY AND JET DYNAMICS
PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHICH WILL ALSO HAVE UPSLOPE LLVL EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. PW/S WILL ALSO INCREASE BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH TO JUST OVER ONE INCH BY THURSDAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND SHOWS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE BULK OF THE DECENT RAINFALL
RATES FURTHER EAST...MAINLY ACROSS KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE JET ON THE 00Z GFS
SOLUTION...PRECIPITATION EXTENT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH SENSE UNLESS
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
CONTINUED TO INCREASE POP BETWEEN 40 TO 55 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOUNTAINS. THIS APPEARS TO BE A RELATIVELY WARM
SYSTEM...SO SNOWLEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER 8000 FEET AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME COLDER AIR ATTEMPTING TO
PUSH INTO WYOMING LATE THURSDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...A COOL RAINY DAY IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY
ON THURSDAY.
LATER IN THE WEEK...THE NORTHERN BRANCH AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE JET WILL GRADUALLY PHASE TOGETHER INTO ONE PRIMARY JET
CORE OVER THE AREA. THIS IS WHERE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE
STRUGGLING. THE GEM AND SEVERAL ECMWF/GFS MEMBERS SHOW A SECONDARY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THURSDAY
SYSTEM...FORMING A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER AS WELL...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY GIVEN THE JET POSITION AND
EVOLUTION. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND GFS ALONG WITH THE BULK OF
THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW THE SECONDARY TROUGH WEAKENING AS IT
PUSHES EASTWARD...WITH DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA BY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GRADUALLY LOWERED
POP BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
TO LOW 60S ON SATURDAY...AND MID/UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH LATE MONDAY EVENING)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA TODAY. SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON FROM KRWL TO KCYS. KEPT VCSH
IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOT VERY CONFIDENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS WITH THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY. WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE MAINLY
DRY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2015
WINDY DAY TODAY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING CLOSE TO 40MPH OUT NEAR RAWLINS AND ARLINGTON AREAS. WE
ARE SEEING INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON OCT 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON
TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A DRYING TREND WILL START
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAJORITY OF
CLOUD COVER HUGGING THE SKY ISLANDS. REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES CONTINUED TO EXIT THE CWA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. A BIT HAZY
OUT THERE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS VALID 19/16Z RANGED FROM THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE SURFACE INVERSION MIXES OUT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
HELP TO TIGHTEN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME AFTERNOON SLY/SWLY BREEZES TODAY. OTHERWISE...19/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING WAS PRETTY ROBUST WITH REGARD TO SB CAPE...INDICATING 1420
J/KG AND A PWAT OF 1.06 INCHES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WAS CONFINED TO
BELOW 700 MB AS CONSIDERABLE DRYING HAS OCCURRED IN THE LAST 24
HOURS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. CIRA LPW VALUES VALID 19/15Z
INDICATED THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTED MAINLY ACROSS GRAHAM AND
GREENLEE COUNTIES...WHERE WE EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS OF VARIOUS HIRES NWP
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS NOTION...KEEPING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY EAST TO NORTHEAST OF TUCSON THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THAT SAID...THE CURRENT TRENDS ARE HANDLED WELL BY
THE FORECAST AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/18Z.
ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY E/NE OF KTUS TODAY INCLUDING KSAD.
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FEW-SCT CLOUDS WEST OF KTUS AND
SCT-BKN CLOUDS E OF KTUS WITH DECKS OF 7-12K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND
WILL BE SLY/SWLY AT 10-15 KTS LATE THIS MORNING THRU 20/00Z. SPEEDS
WILL THEN DECREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU TUESDAY
MORNING ALONG. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST/NORTHEAST OF TUCSON. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON ON THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEK AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
20-FT WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN
BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...LATEST HRRR SOLUTIONS KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
IN THIS SAME GENERAL AREA FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AND MORE SO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
ENTERS ARIZONA. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THIS SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY OF
ARIZONA THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND EJECTING
EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. THEREAFTER....HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL NUDGE
INTO ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND FOR DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...THEN BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME READINGS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL TEND TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS EUREKA CA
347 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND A MODEST WARMING AND DRYING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG EXPOSED RIDGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF DEL
NORTE...NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTY. THESE ARE THANKS TO
A PASSING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...ALLOWING THE
INLAND THERMAL TROUGH TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT...WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS LIKELY ALONG EXPOSED RIDGES AND PEAKS AND PERHAPS
A FEW FAVORABLY ORIENTED VALLEYS. WHILE AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL SEE ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON FIRE
WEATHER FOR THE AREA...OF WHICH THERE ARE MORE DETAILS IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. IN THE MORE PROTECTED
VALLEYS...ADDITIONAL FOG/STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT COVERAGE.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN WILL BE FOR SOME PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP
IN SOME OF THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF TRINITY COUNTY LIKE HAYFORK
AND RUTH. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST...ALTHOUGH A WEAK TROUGH WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS HEIGHTS AND
MODERATE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. THIS COULD ALSO YIELD A FEW
SPRINKLES ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST AS WELL...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IF ANY AT ALL. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED THERMAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD ON
CALIFORNIA...WITH MODERATE NOCTURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A BIT
MORE ACTIVE...AND BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THIS
POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE NW CA COAST WILL ONLY RECEIVE A
GLANCING BLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST. MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT A STRONGER AND WETTER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH LITTLE CONFIDENCE EXISTS REGARDING ITS
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE. /BRC
&&
.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE
AT KACV FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
SE ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHO CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OVER THE
PACIFIC...LOW CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REDWOOD COAST
AS MOISTURE PILES UP ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE TERRAIN WITH
INCREASING N WINDS. AS WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE BECOME MORE
OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT...IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER... WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND RECENT GROUND
MOISTURE...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO GROUND FOG FORMATION AND
PERHAPS A RETURN OF EVEN LOWER CEILINGS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE ON TUE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHO CLOUDS MAY LINGER
NEAR AND JUST N OF CAPE MENDOCINO.
AT KUKI...LOW CLOUDINESS AND SOME GROUND FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
HAVE INTRODUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILING REDUCTIONS TO AN UPDATED TAF
SET. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. /SEC
&&
.MARINE...N WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE E PACIFIC AND AN INLAND THERMAL TROF SHARPENS.
GUSTS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. WINDS MAY DIMINISH A BIT TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED. WINDS AND SEAS STILL LOOK TO BE MARGINAL
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A
SHORTER DURATION ADVISORY IS NEEDED...ESPECIALLY BY THU WITH
SECONDARY SURGE OF N WINDS. LONG PERIOD S-SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE BY FRI NIGHT WITH INITIAL PERIODS AROUND 22 SECONDS. THIS
WILL BE COINCIDING WITH THE TIME PERIOD THAT WINDS DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY. DEPENDING ON RESIDUAL MID- RANGE SWELL...AN
ELEVATED RISK OF SNEAKER WAVES AT AREA BEACHES MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. /SEC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH PARTS OF THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE SOME AREAS OF DEL NORTE...NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND
NORTHERN TRINITY COULD SEE A LIGHT WETTING RAIN FROM THIS
ACTIVITY...ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED MUCH MORE THAN
ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.
TONIGHT...A REDEVELOPING INLAND TROUGH WILL RESULT IN QUICKLY
INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO
25 MPH ALONG PRIMARILY EXPOSED RIDGES AND PEAKS. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN QUICKLY DROPPING HUMIDITY VALUES AT HIGH ELEVATIONS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
RECOVERY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE THESE
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH LIKELY STILL SHY OF RED FLAG CRITERIA WITH THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. IN ADDITIONS...THE RECENT LIGHT RAINS LIKELY
MEAN THAT MOST FUELS IN THE AREA WILL BE ON THE MOIST
SIDE...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS LIKELY TO BE THE CASE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MENDOCINO COUNTY WHERE VERY LITTLE RAIN HAS
FALLEN. IN ANY CASE...A HEADLINE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST HIGHLIGHTING THE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS...BUT A RED
FLAG WARNING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /BRC
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
319 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015
.Synopsis...
Other than lingering mainly mountain and northern Sacramento
Valley showers into this evening...warmer and drier weather is
expected over interior NorCal this week. Breezy northerly winds
are expected at times early this week.
&&
.Discussion...
Main area of clouds with the potential for light showers is
returning to our CWA from the NW as sheared or stretched out
vorticity drops Swd along the CA coast on the backside of the larger
scale upper trof over the Wrn States. Cloud cover has expanded over
most of the Wrn half of Shasta/Tehama Cos and should continue to
spread SSEwd over most of the CWA this evening. High Resolution QPFs
from the HRRR suggests the precip will be confined mostly to the
Coastal Range where the main dynamics are moving through...and to a
lesser extent...the Siernev where cyclonic flow on the backside of
the upper low over NV may result in enough moisture and instability
for a "pop-up" shower or two from the Tahoe area Swd.
Warmer and drier conditions will be developing over interior NorCal
for the rest of the week due to increased ridging from the Ern Pac.
Increasing Nly surface pressure gradients in the wake of the upper
low and energy dropping Swd on the backside of the trof will lead to
locally breezy north winds later tonight into Tue before subsiding
Tue afternoon. The previously issued fire weather watch will be
cancelled due to the expected higher Min RH from the evaporation
from local recent wetting rains. Still there is the concern of
breezy Nly winds developing with a band of 25-35 kt 2000 ft winds
developing tonight and into Tue morning mainly from Shasta Co along
the W side of Sac Vly into Napa/Solano Co. This low level support
weakens Tue afternoon...but rebounds to a lesser extent again Tue
nite and Wed morning as the gradient turns more NEly or Ely. Since
the strongest band of wind is expected mainly overnight and into
the early morning hours on Tue...the decoupling lower atmosphere
will preclude strong or advisory criteria wind speeds. Then...the
NEly to Ely pressure gradient and core of the 925 mbs winds Tue
nite and Wed morning...would favor primarily the NE Sac Vly
foothill and Srn Lake Co/Napa Co areas with locally gusty ridge
winds. These mainly katabatic/downslope winds will also lead to
adiabatic warming effects on both the Min T/Max T the next couple
of days. However...a weak trof moving through the region on Thu
may result in some very slight cooling. In any event...Max Ts look
to be running some 5-10 degrees above normal for much of the week.
JHM
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)
High pressure will remain over our area through late this week
and into the weekend bringing warm and dry conditions. During this
period, temperatures look to be 10-15 degrees above normal. By Monday
both the GFS and ECMWF have a trough developing out over the
Pacific which will bring some cooling to our area. Beyond this,
models disagree on where and when the trough could move onshore
but this is getting beyond our forecast period.
Wilson
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions expected across the valley through the next
24 hours. A short wave passing through this afternoon will bring
some showers to the Northern Sacramento Valley and possibly some
MVFR conditions in the heavier showers. North winds are expected
to strengthen overnight and may be gusting up to 20/25kts
tomorrow morning in the Southern/Northern Sacramento Valley.
Wilson
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
657 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DELIVER LOTS OF CLOUDS BUT VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL YIELD MILDER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THIS
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WED AND THU AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN FRI
AND SAT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL
OVERSPREAD REST OF AREA BY MIDNIGHT. BEFORE THAT...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP RAPIDLY THIS EVENING DUE TO DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS...BEFORE CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING SW WINDS
CAUSE WARMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODIFIED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT THIS TREND.
GFS LAMP SHOWS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN FOR TEMPS TO HOLD IN MID 30S
ACROSS DEEPER VALLEYS OF WESTERN MA...PRIMARILY NEAR ORANGE...AS
OPPOSED TO WARMING OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE THAT IS GOING TO BE CASE
GIVEN CLOUDINESS ALREADY ON DOORSTEP...BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPS. DO NOT BELIEVE THERE
IS MUCH OF AN ICING THREAT OVERNIGHT SHOULD ANY LIGHT PRECIP
OCCUR.
LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN NY...WHICH IT KEEPS TO OUR N OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WARM
ADVECTION CAUSES ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NY...WHICH COULD AFFECT MUCH OF MA...N CT AND
RI TOWARD DAYBREAK. DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THESE
AREAS BUT IF IT OCCURS WOULD ONLY EXPECT SPRINKLES OR BRIEF LIGHT
SHOWER FROM MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...
STRONG LOW LEVEL WSW JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT WINDS
ALOFT MIXING TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS POTENTIAL UP TO 40 TO 45
MPH ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. EVENTUALLY WARMING ALOFT
INCREASES RESULTING IN LESS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES FOR MIXING. THUS
STRONGEST WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY THEN TRENDING DOWNWARD MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT G40-45KT ACROSS
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DECIDED TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS
AREA. REALIZE WIND SPEEDS MAY FALL JUST SHY OF WIND CRITERIA
HOWEVER WITH LEAVES STILL FULLY LEAVED ACROSS THIS AREA THE
THRESHOLD IS LOWER FOR DOWN BRANCHES AND LIMBS. ELSEWHERE AND
FARTHER INLAND WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG BUT NEVERTHELESS STILL
A BREEZY/WINDY DAY.
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN TOMORROW IN THE WAA PATTERN BUT TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS 60 TO 65. VERY LOW RISK OF
A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW IN THE WAA PATTERN.
OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
TUE NIGHT...
BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS 1030 MB HIGH
OVER QUEBEC ADVECTS SOUTHEASTWARD. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS MAINLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.
SHALLOW COOL AIR LIKELY BLEEDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST MA AND
POSSIBLY A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWARD. OVERALL FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* WARMER WED/THU WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
* TURNING COOLER AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT
OF SPLIT FLOW OVER CONUS. IN NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM
CANADIAN PLAINS TO MARITIMES AND ALLOWS RIDGING TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER EASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES SUN. SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS DRY WEATHER OVERALL SINCE
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AHEAD OF ANY FRONTS.
EXTENDED FORECAST IS LARGELY BASED UPON BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE...
BUT DID ADJUST WINDS THU AND FRI TO ACCOUNT FOR MIXING.
WED AND THU...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRONT REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED BEFORE LIFTING N AS WARM
FRONT THU. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING TREND BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY
THU AS INCREASING SW FLOW BOOSTS TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 70 IN SOME
LOCATIONS THU AFTERNOON. DO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER CT AND MERRIMACK VALLEYS IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN
BUT RIGHT NOW CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE CLOUDINESS SHOULD DOMINATE.
MAY NEED TO EDGE UP HIGHS THU IN LATER FORECASTS THOUGH.
NOT MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS EXPECTED EITHER DAY...EVEN WITH COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THU AFTERNOON. 12Z ENSEMBLES ONLY HAVE LOW
PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER DYNAMICS STAY TO OUR N. 12Z MODELS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN WAY OF RAINFALL EITHER WITH SW FLOW IN PLACE...
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DOES STRENGTHEN A BIT AS FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE THU EVENING. KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN MA WED/THU
AND NEAR CAPE COD LATE THU/THU NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
FRI INTO SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY
AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED ALONG WITH BANDS OF OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS
NEAR CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN 50S AND LOWS IN 30S/40S.
SUN INTO MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS REGION SUN WITH FAST FLOW ALOFT.
AGAIN NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO TAP INTO SO ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS
AT BEST SUN. FRONT EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE MON MORNING FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM GREAT LAKES. HIGHS WARM
BACK INTO 50S/LOWER 60S SUN AHEAD OF FRONT THEN BACK INTO 50S MON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
7 PM UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
VFR WITH CIGS AOA 080 TONIGHT. MAY SEE SPRINKLE/BRIEF SHOWER
OVERNIGHT BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO WET GROUND. ANY SHOWERS
TUE/TUE NIGHT CONFINED TO NORTHERN MA. MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS
REMAIN DRY.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WSW JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA 06Z-18Z TUE. WIND
GUSTS AT THE SURFACE COULD REACH 40 KT OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
WITH LESS WIND INLAND. GIVEN GOOD MIXING ALONG THE COAST NOT
EXPECTING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS A RIBBON OF 45 KT
WSW WINDS AT 2-3KFT WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST 06Z-18Z TUE.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE
08Z-11Z TUE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WED...VFR.
THU...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30KT.
FRI...VFR. N/NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT.
SAT...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...
WSW WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH SW GALES POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS. THUS GALE WATCH
HAS BEEN POSTED. ELSEWHERE WINDS INCREASING 20 TO 30 KT. OTHER
THAN A FEW SPRINKLES LATE DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY PREVAIL.
TUE...
SW GALES POSSIBLE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH 20 TO 30 KT ELSEWHERE. OTHER
THAN A FEW SPRINKLES LATE DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY PREVAIL. WINDS
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.
TUE NIGHT...
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE WATERS. OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES LATE DRY
WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA WED AS FRONT SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND RESULTS IN LIGHT E FLOW. HOWEVER INCREASING S/SW
FLOW GETS UNDERWAY THU AS FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM GREAT LAKES.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED DUE TO 25-30KT GUSTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 5-7
FT. PATTERN FAVORS STEEP WAVES ON NEARSHORE WATERS SUCH AS BUZZARDS
BAY AND VINEYARD SOUND AGAINST OUTGOING TIDE...AND ON CAPE COD BAY
FROM INCOMING TIDE.
NOT MUCH IN WAY OF SHOWERS EXPECTED WED/THU WITH EITHER FRONT...
PROBABLY JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MOST.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED FRI
INTO SAT MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING SCA CONDITIONS WITH 25KT GUSTS
AND 4-6 FT SEAS OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH SAT
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ022>024.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM 6 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ231>235-237-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ250-251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/JWD
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...NOCERA/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1232 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Going forecast is largely on track. Dry air is allowing
temperatures to rise nicely. VAD wind profile from our radar is
showing 35-40 knots at an elevation of 1500-2000 feet, and this is
mixing down with the abundant sunshine. Wind gusts across the
northern third of the forecast area are already starting to
approach 30 mph, with a 35 mph gusts observed on the 9 am
observation from Bloomington. Recent update mainly adjusted
high temperatures up a degree or two across the western CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Fire weather concerns highlight the short term. Increasing winds
under a tightening pressure gradient will be the controlling factor
as to what counties are included in a Red Flag Warning for extreme
fire weather conditions. Very low RH and dry fuels will be present
in all of our forecast area this afternoon, but the strongest winds
of 15-25 mph gusting to 30 mph will be mainly confined to our
western and northern counties. We upgraded all of the counties that
were in a Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning, and added
additional counties across the north. This includes our counties NW
of the IL river, with the addition of Woodford, Tazewell and McLean
counties.
The dry airmass will preclude much in the way of cloud cover, with
full sun aiding in producing a deep mixing layer to tap into the
strong mid-level winds.
Temperatures today will begin an upward trend, as brisk southwest
winds usher milder conditions into IL. Highs should top out 7 to 10F
deg warmer than yesterday, with readings in the upper 60s southeast
of I-70, and low to mid 70s west of I-55.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Surface high pressure sliding to the east will leave the Midwest in
more southerly flow, continuing the unseasonably warm days. Central
Illinois will see max temps in the 70s tomorrow...and through the
mid to upper 70s by Wednesday, with some locations in the lower 80s.
Deep upper low passing over Hudson Bay Mon-Tues dragging a front
across the Midwest. Models continue to introduce some precip to the
northwestern portions of the state. Have started trending in some
chance pops nw of the Illinois River Valley this morning for
overnight Tuesday...but in general, the front is not quite overrun
with precip. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are hinting at some
scattered activity along the boundary...most of it to the north.
Front is starting to slow somewhat in the push through the
region...and some sct activity lingering into Wednesday in the
models. Have kept the forecast somewhat conservative for now,
keeping to slights during the work week. Cooler temperatures follow
for the end of the week behind the front. Beyond that, the desert SW
low finally kicks out and through the Midwest bringing the best
precip chances in the forecast for this weekend...Friday night and
Saturday. Depending on the location of the boundary in the Midwest
for Saturday`s max heat of the day, may need to introduce some
scattered thunder for Saturday afternoon in the next couple runs.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Main concern through the TAF period will be with the winds. Gusts
the last couple hours have been consistently in the 30 knot range
from KBMI-KCMI, and bit more sporadic at KDEC. A lot of the higher
gusts aloft have mixed down already with the sunshine, per the
Lincoln Doppler radar wind profile, so the highest gusts should
persist a couple more hours. Currently looking like early to mid
evening before the winds settle down appreciably, but they should
remain sustained around 10 knots or so through the night. Have
introduced another round of LLWS at KPIA/KBMI tonight, as the
lower level jet sets up from northern Missouri to southern Lake
Michigan. LLWS conditions a bit more borderline at the TAF sites
further south, so will hold off mention for now. Am expecting the
gusts to pick up again late Tuesday morning, although likely not
as high as now as there will be some cloud cover to stifle some of
the mixing.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Have expanded the Red Flag Warning a row of counties southward,
now extending from Havana through Lincoln to Champaign and
Danville. Highest wind gusts at midday are near Champaign with
persistent gusts 30-35 mph. Wind speed criteria is a bit
borderline further west toward Lincoln, but humidity levels will
be dipping below 25% soon.
PREVIOUS UPDATE AT 956 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
Already starting to see wind gusts of 25-30 mph across the
northern third of the forecast area, with gusts around 35 mph in
Bloomington. The pressure gradient will remain tight through the
afternoon, keeping the winds gusting over 30 mph across the
northern half of the forecast area. Latest HRRR and RAP guidance
suggest the highest winds will be through early afternoon as the
core of the low level jet gets mixed toward the surface. Dew
points in the upper 20s to lower 30s already, and some modest
increase is possible west of I-55 this afternoon, but
significantly warmer temperatures will offset that and humidity
values should be 20-25%. No changes anticipated to the Red Flag
Warning at this time, with the alignment set based on the location
of the highest winds.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-
036>038-040>046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart
FIRE WEATHER...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
320 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF KENTUCKY WITH A
RELATIVELY LOOSE GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT TIGHTER AS
YOU GO NORTHWEST TOWARD MUCH LOWER PRESSURE. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT
THE SKIES CLEAR TODAY AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE READINGS HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S YIELDING HUMIDITIES DOWN IN
THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
ALTHOUGH THE HIGH IS KEEPING WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT...THE DEEP
MIXING IS BRINGING DOWN SOME OCCASIONAL SOUTH SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS THEY ALL DEPICT FLAT AND BROAD RIDGING SPREADING OVER THE
REGION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONLY WEAK ENERGY WILL DRIFT PAST
EASTERN KENTUCKY AMID THOSE HIGHER HEIGHTS. THE PATTERN DOES
START TO CHANGE AFTER THE SHORT TERM WITH A DEVELOPING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH MOVING EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO. AGAIN FAVORED THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER
DETAILS GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY LARGE RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AGAIN...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
GIVEN THE MODERATING HIGH DEPARTING THE AREA. ACCORDINGLY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO HIGHER
THAN TODAY WITH SIMILAR LOW RH CONCERNS. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
MORE...AS WELL...RUNNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS LOW RH AND INCREASING WIND
CONCERN IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT MILDER TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH STILL A LARGE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG NEAR DAWN.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE SOME
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR
POPS...ONCE AGAIN ZEROED THEM OUT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
IN LINE WITH ALL GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK...PROVIDING A PLEASANT STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER. STILL
WATCHING FOR SOME VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD STAY IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE...BUT GIVEN
THE DRY CONDITIONS LEADING UP TO WEDNESDAY...ANY WIND COULD POSE
A FIRE DANGER. PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.
A COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN MOISTURE
STARVED AND POSE NO THREAT TO OUR WEATHER OUTSIDE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN SKY COVER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BY FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES AS WE HEAD
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A SOUTH WAVE CROSSING TEXAS
ON SATURDAY. WHILE ITS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THESE TWO WAVES WILL
INTERACT AS THEY MOVE EAST...IT DOES APPEAR THESE WAVES WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GOOD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT
RAIN CHANCES AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE
COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON BEST RAIN CHANCES COMING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR THIS REASON...POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED
UPWARDS FOR THESE TWO PERIODS. THE FRONT COULD HANG UP OVER THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE WEATHER SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED. ANY RAIN WILL BE WELCOME AFTER THE EXTENDED STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER...AND SHOULD HOPEFULLY HELP BRING A TEMPORARY END TO
ANY FIRE DANGER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. AS THE HIGH TRANSITIONS EAST OF OUR REGION INTO
TUESDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHERLY
TILT...BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN UNDER 5 KNOTS MOST PLACES. PATCHY
FOG IS FORECASTED...BUT JUST FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...LATE
TONIGHT AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
131 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE ERN NAMERICA TROF
THAT DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND IS NOW SHIFTING OFFSHORE OF THE CONUS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE THAT HAS TRACKED E TO HUDSON BAY. SHORTWAVE
IS SUPPORTING A DEEP SFC LOW AROUND 975MB OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE DEEP LOW AND PRES FALLS OF 5-6MB/3HR PASSING ACROSS NRN
ONTARIO OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN STEADY S TO SW WINDS WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. WAA AND WINDS HAVE PREVENTED MUCH TEMP
DROP DURING THE NIGHT. EARLY MORNING TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 40F IN
INTERIOR SHELTED LOCATIONS TO AROUND 50F WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
STRONGEST. CLOSE EXAMINATION OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT SOME POCKETS OF ACCAS ARE DEVELOPING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WESTWARD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM ACROSS THIS AREA.
PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS TODAY AS SFC TROF TO THE W APPROACHES AND COLD
FRONT DROPS SE THRU NRN ONTARIO. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS IN
CHECK TODAY...AS WILL INCREASING MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL HELP PREVENT
DEEPER MIXING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL STILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E WHERE GRADIENT SLACKENS LATEST. WITH VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...GENERAL QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HINTS OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...
THERE IS SOME RISK OF -SHRA TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SHOWING AS MUCH AS 500+J/KG OVER THE FAR SCNTRL THIS
AFTN. THE GFS AND LATEST RAP ARE MORE MODEST...UP TO 200J/KG. IF THE
NAM IS CORRECT...WOULDN`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE AN ISOLD
TSTM. A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE HRRR/RAP MODELS IN
CONSTRUCTING POPS FIELDS TODAY AS THOSE MODELS HAVE GOOD SUPPORT
FROM THE NCAR ENSEMBLES. THIS RESULTS IN A BAND OF ISOLD -SHRA
POTENTIAL STREAKING INTO THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING...THEN SAGGING S
THRU MID AFTN. ISOLD -SHRA POTENTIAL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SCNTRL
DURING THE AFTN HRS. WITH A MILD START TO THE DAY...OPTED TO RAISE
TEMPS A LITTLE WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 65F BEING THE RULE. IF THERE
HAPPENS TO BE MORE SUN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER.
COLD FRONT WILL DROP S THRU THE FCST AREA TONIGHT WITHOUT ANY PCPN
AS FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FRONT IS FCST TO BE WNW...RESULTING IN DRYING
ALOFT PRECEDING THE SFC FROPA. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE
SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA WILL EXIT EARLY IN THE EVENING AND GIVE WAY TO A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FROPA WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN ONTARIO...A SHALLOW BUT
INCREASING NNE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IS LIKELY TO GENERATE SOME LOW
CLOUDS...AT LEAST IN THE UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
TOWARD 12Z TUE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
TUESDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE RIDGE...ZONAL TO SLIGHT
UPPER LEVEL 500MB RIDGING AND DEEP LAYER 1000-500MB DRY AIR WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
SLIDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD FROM ONTARIO ALLOWING NORTH TO EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY BE TRAPPED BY AN INVERSION AROUND AROUND 2KFT TO 3KFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE PLAINS LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE U.P.
AND CROSS THE U.P. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THE APPROACH OF THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF FORCING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS SHOWN
BY ANALYZING 1000-500MB RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV...THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE HOW THE PLAINS LOW AND THE CANADIAN LOW END UP
PHASING. THE CANADIAN LOW IS NOW PROGGED BY THE EC/GFS TO PHASE WITH
THE PLAINS LOW AS IT SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH THE BETTER INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING AS THEY BECOME IN
SYNC WITH THE FAIRLY POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. IF THE PHASING OCCURS AS IS CURRENTLY SHOWN...THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR FAIRLY GUSTY NW WINDS OVER MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SURFACE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO QUICKLY BUILD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS THE LOW
DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUD FROM THE
WEST...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES
IN PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT...BUT IT DOES LOOK AS IF
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING RAINY. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH MODEL ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...BOTH THE EC AND GFS HAVE BROAD
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR SUNDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS WAS USED
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU MAJORITY OF THE
FCST PERIOD AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION IN FCST.
PLUS...IF ANY PCPN DOES OCCUR...CONDITIONS WON`T FALL BLO VFR. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE
N TO NE WIND BEHIND FRONT MAY RESULT IN SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS ON
TUESDAY MORNING. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2015
AS LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS E THIS MORNING AND PRES GRADIENT RELAXES
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM W TO E TODAY. GALE WARNINGS OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...12Z CNTRL AND 15Z E. AFTER A PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N TO NE WITH WINDS RAMPING
UP TO 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL
FUNNEL AND ENHANCE THE FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE E-SE TUE
NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES TO QUEBEC AND A LOW PRES TROF
APPROACHES. THE STRONGER SE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER
THE E HALF OF THE LAKE ON WED. AFTER THE TROF PASSES BY LATE
WED...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW...THEN DIMINISH BY LATE THU AS
TRAILING HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. S WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 25KT ON FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE HIGH TO THE
E AND UNDER A SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1227 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
A SFC LOW WAS MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AT 07Z WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING INTO EASTERN ND. A SECOND...WEAKER SFC LOW WAS LOCATED IN
NORTH CENTRAL SD WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES INTO CENTRAL ND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WAS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS LOOSENING WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME CIRRUS WAS FLOATING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE WAS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS NEAR 30F. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO GENERATE A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS BY 11Z AND TAKING IT FROM
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 169 CORRIDOR IN NE MN THROUGH NW WI BY 18Z.
HOWEVER...A CHECK OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN DRY BELOW 14K FT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO TRYING TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS WHICH IS IN CONFLICT WITH ITS OWN SOUNDINGS.
HAVE REMOVED THE RAIN MENTION FOR TODAY.
THE SFC LOW OVER NW ONTARIO MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND DRAGS THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
THE PLACE OF THE LOW AND PARKS ITSELF IN NW ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. A COLD NE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT. WILL SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP AS THE COLD AIR MIXES
WITH THE RESIDUAL WARM AIR OVER LAND FROM DAYTIME HEATING.
MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE HANDLING OF PCPN ON TUESDAY. THE SFC HIGH
REMAINS OVER NW ONTARIO WITH SOME WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE
ARROWHEAD THROUGH NW WI. THE ECMWF/GFS DEVELOP SHOWERS ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM/NAM12/ARW/NMM ARE ALL DRY
IN THIS AREA. USED A BLENDED APPROACH THAT PRODUCED A RAIN FREE
FORECAST FOR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FARTHER SOUTH...THE
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON HAVING NO RAIN. THE COLD NE FLOW
CONTINUES OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
SUMMARY...THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY WILL
COME FRIDAY. COLDER WEATHER WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...PROVIDING A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE
DAKOTAS FRIDAY MORNING INTO MANITOBA AND/OR NW ONTARIO BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. ITS COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE
FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. THE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW...AS WELL
AS THE TIMING OF THE RAIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT LOW TRACKS...BUT THEY ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE PCPN AS FAR AS THE NORTHLAND IS CONCERNED. THE
GEM...HOWEVER...IS MUCH SLOWER IN TIMING THAN THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BOTH FOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND FOR THE TIMING OF
THE RAIN. LEANED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COOL NW FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND COLD FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY GET COLDER INTO SUNDAY.
THERE COULD BE LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS WILL USHER IN
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TONIGHT AT AROUND 5 KNOTS WITH A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS AND INCREASE IN
SPEEDS BY 14Z. EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO DULUTH FROM
THE LAKE BY 13Z WITH AN INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVING INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 63 43 50 40 / 10 0 10 40
INL 63 36 51 35 / 0 0 10 60
BRD 67 43 59 43 / 10 0 10 30
HYR 66 43 59 45 / 10 0 10 30
ASX 65 41 53 41 / 10 0 10 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PENDLETON OR
1038 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...PATCHY FOG WAS LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN/KITTITAS VALLEY WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEVADA WAS SPINNING MOISTURE NORTH AND INTO
OUR BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO WA/OR
AND SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CASCADE CREST
TODAY. ELSEWHERE SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. OTHER THAN A FEW
MODIFICATIONS TO AFTN TEMPS AND POPS...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...HOWEVER MVR CIGS AROUND 2-3KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF
SITES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AND AMEND SITES AS NEEDED. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 5-10KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. VCSH POSSIBLE AT KPDT THIS AFTERNOON. WEBER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS SITTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BORDER THIS
MORNING. THIS IS PUSHING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE INTO UNION AND WALLOWA
COUNTIES AS SHOWN IN THE RADAR. THE HRRR MODEL IS ACCURATELY
PREDICTING THIS PRECIPITATION. SO WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS THERE FOR AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL
SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY TO THE EAST. THEN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS. IT WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TODAY AND
TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE MAY
BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY THIS MORNING DUE TO
CLEARING SKIES AND TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THERE. SO FAR
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE RISEN TO 10 PLUS MILES DURING THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS. 88
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS OFF WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE UNDER A
TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD WHICH SHOULD MEAN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER. THERE MAY BE A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT TIMES
DURING THIS PERIOD AS MOST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE
COOLER SIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DESPITE THE RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
THIS INVERSION IS QUITE TYPICAL FOR THE REGION HEADING INTO THE LAST
WEEK OF OCTOBER AND BEYOND. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD ALSO BE QUITE
CHILLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND
30S AREA WIDE. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LATEST GFS BRINGS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE
EUROPEAN/CANADIAN HAVE A WEAKER TROUGH SKIRTING BY TO THE NORTH WITH
LESS PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOW IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPPER 40S TO MID
50S MOUNTAINS. 77
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 65 47 64 43 / 20 20 10 0
ALW 66 51 66 47 / 20 20 10 0
PSC 71 47 68 43 / 10 10 10 0
YKM 71 43 71 42 / 20 10 10 0
HRI 69 46 67 42 / 10 10 10 0
ELN 67 39 66 37 / 20 10 10 0
RDM 60 31 61 31 / 20 20 10 0
LGD 61 43 62 39 / 60 20 10 0
GCD 64 40 62 35 / 20 20 10 0
DLS 68 50 69 48 / 30 10 10 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
97/77/89
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1216 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
UPDATE FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
SUNNY SKIES WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5
TO 15 MPH. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
A DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE SISSETON HILLS
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PEEVER GUSTING SOLIDLY BETWEEN 45 AND
50 MPH THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. SISSETON JOINING IN ON THE GUSTS TOO
BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG. RAP 925MB WINDS DID PEAK AROUND 45 KNOTS A
COUPLE HOURS AGO...BUT SHOW A QUICK DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY
AROUND 10Z OR 11Z SO EXPECT THE WINDS IN PEEVER AND SISSETON TO
SUBSIDE BEFORE SUNRISE. STILL VERY MILD ALOFT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE
IN PLACE RIGHT OVER THE CWA. THEREFORE...HAVE BEEN SEEING SOME
INCREDIBLY MILD TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SISSETON IS CURRENTLY 66 DEGREES WHICH IS RATHER REMARKABLE AT 3AM
IN THE LATTER HALF OF OCTOBER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO MAKING ITS
WAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH MBG HAVING RECENTLY TURNED TO A NORTHERLY
WIND. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING BUT NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF COOL AIR BEHIND THIS IT AT ALL. IN FACT...HIGHS TODAY
WERE INCREASED A COUPLE DEGREES AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE VERY MILD
TEMPERATURES WITH MANY AREAS IN THE 70S.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND MODELS HAVE CUT BACK ON QPF WITH MOST MODELS ACTUALLY
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS
ACCORDINGLY...BUT WHAT THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT WITH IS POTENTIALLY A
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP MOVING ACROSS WESTERN SD AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL
SD LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.
COOLER AIR AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS DEPARTING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. HIGHS ARE
LIKELY ONLY TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLATED TO COME
THROUGH THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS SFC LOW WILL BE REINFORCED BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING
EAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GFS NOW SHOWS A GULF MOISTURE FEED
AT THE SFC...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL REMAINS OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO EXIT THE SYSTEM THAN THE GFS
WHICH COULD MEAN HIGHER QPF VALUES AS WELL. FOR NOW QPF OUTPUT
INDICATES 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND TO JUST ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2015
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SCARLETT