Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/16/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
906 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
DIABLO RANGE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR THE SLO/SANTA BARBARA COUNTY COASTLINE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A LINE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE THERE HAD BEEN A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ACTION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
THAT IS NOW CHANGING. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN SAN BENITO COUNTY
AND SOUTHEAST MONTEREY COUNTY. ALSO...SHOWERS HAVE ALSO RECENTLY
DEVELOPED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BIG SUR COAST. PREVIOUSLY THE MODELS
HAD INDICATED ALL PRECIP WOULD END IN OUR AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING. BUT LATEST NAM AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE HRRR MODEL
SHOWS BANDS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP REACHING FARTHER NORTH INTO SANTA
CLARA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA...BELIEVE THE HRRR MAY HAVE THE RIGHT
IDEA HERE. A FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED
EXPANDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MORE OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND ALSO EXTENDING
THOSE CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT INSTEAD OF LIMITING THEM TO THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE LINGERING CONVECTIVE
PRECIP ON INTO FRIDAY...PUT MAINLY OVER SCATTERED PORTIONS OF
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE DRY ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO A MODEST UPTICK
IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG
135W...IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
LATE TOMORROW NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. MOST MODEL OUTPUT
INDICATES LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTH BAY BY SATURDAY
MORNING...AND PERHAPS INTO NORTH BAY COASTAL AREAS BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. POPS ARE CURRENTLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE AND WE MAY
NEED TO BOOST THOSE A BIT IN THE NORTH BAY GIVEN CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN CA COAST ON SATURDAY
EVENING AND THEN DIG THAT LOW TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP ISOLATED LIGHT PRECIP OVER PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BUT FOR MOST OF OUR AREA...THESE TWO MODELS
FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE
12Z CANADIAN MODEL DROPS THE LOW ALMOST DUE SOUTH AND FORECASTS
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. WILL DISCOUNT THE 12Z CANADIAN FOR NOW...BUT THE DRY
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY DOES CONTAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MOSTLY AGREE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY... UPPER LOW SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ACTIVITY IS
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES. SATELLITE AND RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY SHIFT OVER THE
COASTAL TERRAIN OF THE SANTA LUCIA AND EAST BAY MTNS. THUS....
EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH VCSH AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY FOR MOST TAF SITES. SHOWERS ARE HIGH BASED SO PRECIP
AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT...REDUCING RISK OF WET RUNWAYS. MARINE LAYER
RETURNS TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS WITH 10 TO 15KT WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE MORNING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS... VFR EXPECTED TODAY. MVFR/IFR
EXPECTED AFTER 02Z FRI.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 8:35 AM PDT THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SEAS AND WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: SIMS
MARINE: SIMS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
152 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS JUST DEVELOPED
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES AND WILL PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH THIS
PUSH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE
IS PRESENT. MAINTAINED JUST VCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND TSRA PLACEMENT. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015/
UPDATE...
THE TSTORMS WHICH WERE OVER THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED. RADAR IS NOW QUIET ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. HRRR SHOWING VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WHICH AT FIRST LOOK SEEMS STRANGE AS THE MORNING MIAMI
SOUNDING IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR CONVECTION
WITH THE ANTICIPATED LATE DAY ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND
CONVERGING ON THE PREVAILING MEAN WSW WIND FLOW. HOWEVER, WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TELLS A STORY. A SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS SOUTH FL
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND IS NOW SEEN OVER THE BAHAMAS. SOUTH FL IS
NOW IN CONVERGING UPPER LEVEL WINDS AS EVIDENCED IN A LOOP OF
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE IS NOTED IN THE GFS WITH
SINKING AIR LOCALLY. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT AS FAR AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST THOUGH DUE TO
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST. EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AND MINIMAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON, SO ONLY ADDED VCTS FOR THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS...AND NOT BEGINNING UNTIL 20Z. WILL ASSESS THE
MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING TO SEE IF POPS NEED TO BE LOWERED IN THE
PUBLIC FORECAST. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
WOW, IN MY DISCUSSION LAST NIGHT I MENTIONED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS
DO NOT HANDLE WELL AT ALL THE TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN SOUTH FLORIDA
IS IN CURRENTLY WHERE A FRONT STALLS OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN
SLOWLY DRIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. NONE OF THE MODELS LAST NIGHT WERE
SHOWING MUCH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH NO CHANCE
OF THE INVERSION (CAP) BREAKING EITHER UNTIL WEDNESDAY. AS IT TURNED
OUT, MOISTURE RETURNED VIGOROUSLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION, WHILE THE CAP DID NOT COMPLETELY ERODE IT ALLOWED FOR
THE UPDRAFTS TO BREAK THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PWAT JUMPED TO
OVER 2" OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. BY LATE IN THE DAY, A FEW TSTORMS
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY!
ENOUGH OF THE HINDSIGHT, NOW BACK TO REALITY. THE LARGE SCALE MID
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN STATES HAS DEEPENED
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE DEEPNESS IN THE TROUGH IS NO
DOUBT ONE REASON WHY THE MOISTURE FIELD WAS ABLE TO RETURN SO
SWIFTLY. CURRENT GPS MET DATA SHOWS THE DEEPEST LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH BUT THAT THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIRMASS OVER FAR SOUTH FLORIDA IS RIGHT AT NORMAL AND RANGING DOWN TO
AROUND 90% OF NORMAL NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR MID OCTOBER. THROUGH
FRIDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT BUT THE LARGE SCALE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THUS, THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH ITS WAY NORTHWARD WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PWAT VALUES TO OUR SOUTH ARE
IN THE RANGE OF 115- 120% OF NORMAL SO THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FUEL TO
KEEP THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ESPECIALLY IF THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MOVE INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL HANG AROUND INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PWAT VALUES OF OVER 2" AND A DEEPER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. IN TURN, A VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
DEVELOPING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACHES AND PROBABLY INCREASING TO A HIGH RISK. THE AIRMASS WILL
ALSO DRY OUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING PWAT FALLING WELL
BELOW 1.5" DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WOULD STILL EXPECT SOME FAST
MOVING LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH THE LOW
LEVELS REMAINING SOMEWHAT MOIST.
MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE WIND WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY
AND THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST THURSDAY AT SPEEDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS. ON SUNDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES STRENGTHENS.
A NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 72 87 77 / 40 40 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 75 87 76 / 30 30 40 50
MIAMI 88 75 87 76 / 40 30 40 50
NAPLES 88 72 89 74 / 20 10 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1018 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015
.UPDATE...
THE TSTORMS WHICH WERE OVER THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED. RADAR IS NOW QUIET ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. HRRR SHOWING VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WHICH AT FIRST LOOK SEEMS STRANGE AS THE MORNING MIAMI
SOUNDING IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR CONVECTION
WITH THE ANTICIPATED LATE DAY ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND
CONVERGING ON THE PREVAILING MEAN WSW WIND FLOW. HOWEVER, WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TELLS A STORY. A SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS SOUTH FL
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND IS NOW SEEN OVER THE BAHAMAS. SOUTH FL IS
NOW IN CONVERGING UPPER LEVEL WINDS AS EVIDENCED IN A LOOP OF
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE IS NOTED IN THE GFS WITH
SINKING AIR LOCALLY. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT AS FAR AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST THOUGH DUE TO
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST. EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AND MINIMAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON, SO ONLY ADDED VCTS FOR THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS...AND NOT BEGINNING UNTIL 20Z. WILL ASSESS THE
MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING TO SEE IF POPS NEED TO BE LOWERED IN THE
PUBLIC FORECAST. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
WOW, IN MY DISCUSSION LAST NIGHT I MENTIONED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS
DO NOT HANDLE WELL AT ALL THE TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN SOUTH FLORIDA
IS IN CURRENTLY WHERE A FRONT STALLS OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN
SLOWLY DRIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. NONE OF THE MODELS LAST NIGHT WERE
SHOWING MUCH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH NO CHANCE
OF THE INVERSION (CAP) BREAKING EITHER UNTIL WEDNESDAY. AS IT TURNED
OUT, MOISTURE RETURNED VIGOROUSLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION, WHILE THE CAP DID NOT COMPLETELY ERODE IT ALLOWED FOR
THE UPDRAFTS TO BREAK THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PWAT JUMPED TO
OVER 2" OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. BY LATE IN THE DAY, A FEW TSTORMS
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY!
ENOUGH OF THE HINDSIGHT, NOW BACK TO REALITY. THE LARGE SCALE MID
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN STATES HAS DEEPENED
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE DEEPNESS IN THE TROUGH IS NO
DOUBT ONE REASON WHY THE MOISTURE FIELD WAS ABLE TO RETURN SO
SWIFTLY. CURRENT GPS MET DATA SHOWS THE DEEPEST LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH BUT THAT THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIRMASS OVER FAR SOUTH FLORIDA IS RIGHT AT NORMAL AND RANGING DOWN TO
AROUND 90% OF NORMAL NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR MID OCTOBER. THROUGH
FRIDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT BUT THE LARGE SCALE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THUS, THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH ITS WAY NORTHWARD WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PWAT VALUES TO OUR SOUTH ARE
IN THE RANGE OF 115- 120% OF NORMAL SO THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FUEL TO
KEEP THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ESPECIALLY IF THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MOVE INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL HANG AROUND INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PWAT VALUES OF OVER 2" AND A DEEPER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. IN TURN, A VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
DEVELOPING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACHES AND PROBABLY INCREASING TO A HIGH RISK. THE AIRMASS WILL
ALSO DRY OUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING PWAT FALLING WELL
BELOW 1.5" DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WOULD STILL EXPECT SOME FAST
MOVING LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH THE LOW
LEVELS REMAINING SOMEWHAT MOIST.
MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE WIND WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY
AND THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST THURSDAY AT SPEEDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS. ON SUNDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES STRENGTHENS.
A NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 72 87 77 / 40 40 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 75 87 76 / 30 30 40 50
MIAMI 88 75 87 76 / 40 30 40 50
NAPLES 88 72 89 74 / 20 10 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1000 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
A FEW SPRINKLES ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
THE ROWAN COUNTY MESONET ALREADY RECORDING A TRACE OF PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...MOST PLACES SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS OR SO...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT HAS TO OVERCOME SOME DRY AIR.
THAT BEING SAID...NUDGED POP/SKY GRIDS TOWARDS THE HIGH RES HRRR
MODEL AND FRESHENED UP THE T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
SPRINKLES AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUE THEIR PUSH TOWARD CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. BUT FOR THE NEAR TERM...SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR AND THE GROUND WILL REMAIN DRY. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ALIGN T/TD
GRIDS WITH OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE. TO THE NORTHWEST...A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A DRY COLD FRONT CUTTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOCALLY...THE FULL
SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE BASE OF THE
BROAD NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS
WESTERN BASE. THIS WAVE...AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT...
THEN PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE WHOLE
TROUGH DESCENDING FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY CLEAR EVENING WITH LIKELY A
QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE VALLEYS IN THIS DRY
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL SET UP A GOOD RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS...WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT...HELP MIX OUT THE COLDER
VALLEY TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
STRAY SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES...TO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO DAWN. THIS MINOR PCPN THREAT PASSES OUT OF EAST
KENTUCKY EARLY FRIDAY WITH CLEARING ALSO QUICKLY TAKING PLACE.
THANKS TO RETURNING SUNSHINE...HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S DESPITE POST FRONTAL CAA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH READINGS
SETTLING IN THE MID 30S FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND FROST A GOOD
BET IN THESE SPOTS BY DAWN.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT DID NEED TO ADJUST THE T GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DROP OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND FOR T AND TD GRIDS. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO RATHER LOW POPS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS OUTSIDE OF THAT TIME FRAME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH PW`S DROPPING TO
AROUND OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS ARE FRONT AND CENTER. MOS GUIDANCE HAS THE COLDER VALLEYS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH WILL
BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND PLAN TO ISSUE AN SPS TO START HIGHLIGHTING
THE THREAT EVEN MORE. A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT
FAVORED OVER FOG...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. WHILE THE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...GRADIENT WILL STILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK TO SUPPORT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE TWO CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
AIRMASS WILL MODERATE WITH THE THREAT OF FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
DEPARTING. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT
12Z GFS HAD THIS FRONT DRY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BETTER FORCING TO
THE NORTH. THUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
SOME RECORD LOWS WITHIN REACH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY WARM AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LOWERING CEILINGS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PASSAGE...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
COINCIDE WITH THIS IDEA. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
743 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
SPRINKLES AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUE THEIR PUSH TOWARD CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. BUT FOR THE NEAR TERM...SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR AND THE GROUND WILL REMAIN DRY. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ALIGN T/TD
GRIDS WITH OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE. TO THE NORTHWEST...A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A DRY COLD FRONT CUTTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOCALLY...THE FULL
SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE BASE OF THE
BROAD NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS
WESTERN BASE. THIS WAVE...AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT...
THEN PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE WHOLE
TROUGH DESCENDING FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY CLEAR EVENING WITH LIKELY A
QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE VALLEYS IN THIS DRY
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL SET UP A GOOD RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS...WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT...HELP MIX OUT THE COLDER
VALLEY TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
STRAY SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES...TO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO DAWN. THIS MINOR PCPN THREAT PASSES OUT OF EAST
KENTUCKY EARLY FRIDAY WITH CLEARING ALSO QUICKLY TAKING PLACE.
THANKS TO RETURNING SUNSHINE...HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S DESPITE POST FRONTAL CAA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH READINGS
SETTLING IN THE MID 30S FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND FROST A GOOD
BET IN THESE SPOTS BY DAWN.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT DID NEED TO ADJUST THE T GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DROP OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND FOR T AND TD GRIDS. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO RATHER LOW POPS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS OUTSIDE OF THAT TIME FRAME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH PW`S DROPPING TO
AROUND OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS ARE FRONT AND CENTER. MOS GUIDANCE HAS THE COLDER VALLEYS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH WILL
BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND PLAN TO ISSUE AN SPS TO START HIGHLIGHTING
THE THREAT EVEN MORE. A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT
FAVORED OVER FOG...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. WHILE THE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...GRADIENT WILL STILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK TO SUPPORT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE TWO CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
AIRMASS WILL MODERATE WITH THE THREAT OF FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
DEPARTING. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT
12Z GFS HAD THIS FRONT DRY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BETTER FORCING TO
THE NORTH. THUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
SOME RECORD LOWS WITHIN REACH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY WARM AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LOWERING CEILINGS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PASSAGE...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. THE LATEST HIGH RES
MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
COINCIDE WITH THIS IDEA. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
610 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
Made some minor adjustments to the pops and weather grids tonight.
The latest HRRR seems to have a good handle on things and followed
it closely. Overall seems to move this weak system through faster
than previously thought.
UPDATE Issued at 553 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION ONLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
A developing cold front on approach from the northwest will make
its passage tonight. It is moisture starved and should bring
mainly just some mid decks as currently seen on satellite. We`ll
continue with our slgt chance mention of a Pop, however, as the
pre frontal convergence is sufficent to possibly induce an
isolated shower to pop up. Collaboratively blended as well.
After fropa, the main short term weather feature looks to be the
big incoming surface high that ridges across the Ms valley in its
wake. It will draw down the cooler Canadian temps, and we`ll see
fairly widespread 30s both tmrw nite and Sat nite. And while both
nites shud see frost, Sat nite retains the best chance for a more
widespread frost with the combo of ideal synoptic conditions for
clr sky/light wind radiational cooling, as the high centers over
Il by 12Z Sun. Anticipate we`ll ultimately need a frost advisory
header, but this is more likely sat nite than fri nite. We`ll
thus continue our hwo/sps approach for highlight, leaving
headlines another day or two to consider and collaboratively
blend.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
Medium confidence in the overall extended. Low confidence on rain
chances late next week.
The models start out in fairly good agreement but start to diverge
mid to late week. The main difference is the moisture return. The
GFS keeps the gulf moisture cut off most all of the week and is
hinting at much drier air to start off with than the ECMWF. The GFS
only allows for Pacific moisture from a cut off low over Baja CA to
slowly works it way here. In contrast the ECMWF opens up the western
most gulf allowing moisture to arrive along with the front Thursday
morning. With the slower and drier trend have delayed and lowered
rain probability and left in a mention of thunder. However we may
end up delaying rain until next weekend if the current trend
continues. Thats when both the ECMWF and the GFS bring a long wave
trough through the central plains forcing the high over the gulf
states to the east coast. This will allow adequate moisture for
rain event next weekend. Temperatures will slowly warm through the
extended part of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 553 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
A few sprinkles may be possible in the first few hours of the taf.
Would expect to lose ceilings around mdngt with clear skies at
sunrise Friday. North winds will stay up tonight and likely get
gusty most of the daylight hours Friday.
&&
.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PS
AVIATION...KH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
1031 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY...AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK...AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO REFLECT 00Z OBS. PER LATEST IR/WV SAT IMAGERY...HAVE
SLOWED DOWN INCREASING CLOUDS UNTIL AFTER 09Z /TOWARD DAWN/
ACROSS THE WEST, AND INTO LATER FRI MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1020MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. 1004MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF
LAKE HURON ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS DIVING
THROUGH INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE LOCALLY. EXPECT A CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY...ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE PIEDMONT LATE. A LIGHT SW WIND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW TEMPERATURES FROM LAST
NIGHT...WITH MINIMA AVERAGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND...TO
THE LOW/MID 50S FOR COASTAL AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP LAYER ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE W. 15/12Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM EACH DEMONSTRATE
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. 15/12Z GFS/NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS CONCENTRATED BETWEEN
700-500MB...WITH RATHER DRY CONDITIONS BELOW THIS LAYER. OVERALL
THIS PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN...BUT A 20% POP FOR -SHRA
WILL BE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA GIVEN DECENT MID-LEVEL ENERGY.
A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH...WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED FROM THE W AS THE TROUGH PULLS OFFSHORE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED TO TREND HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS ACRS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...EXPECT HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...TO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN NE NC.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY. COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE LOW 40S OVER THE
PIEDMONT TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
0C ACROSS THE N DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND AVERAGE 2-4C ACROSS
SRN PORTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NW...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE (1030+ MB) CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR DECOUPLING (AND POTENTIAL FREEZE) WILL BE OVER THE
PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING WHERE LOW ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE
LOW 30S...WITH MID/UPPER 30S FARTHER E...AND LOW/MID 40S FOR SE
COASTAL AREAS. COOL AND SUNNY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S N...TO NEAR 60 S...OR ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW SEASONAL
MEANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THE COLDEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS SEASON ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER PA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
ADVERTISE H85 TEMPS HOVERING BETWEEN 0 C OVER ERN NC TO -4 C ACROSS
THE MD ERN SHORE. THIS IS -2 TO -2.5 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LOWS TEMPS SUN NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 30-34 DEG FOR MOST
INTERIOR LOCATIONS...TO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES THEN FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 MON MORNING. WIDESPREAD FROST WOULD
ALSO BE LIKELY. THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON
MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS NO BETTER THAN THE MID 50S. TEMPS MON NIGHT
REMAIN CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S INLAND...TO LOW 40S AT
THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TUES AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RETURN/SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S...WITH 60S
TO LOW 70S FOR NEXT WED/THU.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL BE DIFFUSE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE SKY STARTS OFF CLEAR THIS EVENING BUT MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CEILING TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. LOW
LEVEL NW WINDS WILL SOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A CLEARING SKY
MOST AREAS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTN. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED.
LIGHT S/SW WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AND VEER TO NW BY LATER IN
THE DAY FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION BY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ISSUED FOR THE BAY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM FRIDAY. RAP AND HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AND SW WINDS SHOULD MIX WELL WITH AIR TEMPERATURE ABOUT
SIX DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WATER. GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE BAY AS INDICATED BY RAP.
MODELS HAVE WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND THE
MRNG FORECASTER MIGHT BE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA AT 10 AM IF THIS IS
THE CASE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA NOW PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SW WINDS RAMP UP
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 15
KT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. SW WINDS 10-15 KT CONTINUE INTO
EARLY FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL CAA KICKS IN LATE FRI NIGHT AS STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY SCA
CONDITIONS WOULD BE BRIEF AND MOSTLY LIKELY LIMITED TO THE CHES BAY
AND PERHAPS NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE THEN SHOWN TO DIMINISH
A BIT ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT
AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES. NWLY WINDS GENERALLY 15
TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 4 TO 6 FT AND WAVES 3 TO 4 FT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN
NIGHT. THE HIGH FINALLY SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
409 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID-LVL TROUGH OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NE U.S. AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SFC...A LOW PRES SYSTEM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. COLD ADVECTION IN MOIST CYCLONIC NW
FLOW IS STILL PRODUCING ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR NW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SFC LOW SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY LIFTS QUICKLY EAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
BACKING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ALSO LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
TO END OVERNIGHT NCNTRL AND EAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO SKIRT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
WED. WEAK 700-300 MB Q-VECT CONVERGENCE FROM SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW-
LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ASSOC SFC TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE ERN THIRD OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON PER MODEL
QPF OUTPUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER
ALGER...LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING
SKIES TO RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING OVER THE WRN INTERIOR TO THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S EAST AND NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015
NAM SHOWS A DEEP AND BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z THU WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS SOUTHEAST ON THU AND HELPS TO
DIG THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. ON FRI AS IT HEADS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.
LAKE EFFECT PCPN WILL BE THE WEATHER PRODUCER THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -8C ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
FRIDAY. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE 10C TO 11C ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...SO
THIS IS ENOUGH LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT PCPN. WILL
ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS AND THIS WAS ALREADY IN THE GOING FORECAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOSTLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH LESS IN THE SOUTH DUE TO NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW OVER THE AREA. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD AND DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
IN THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 12Z SAT. THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EASTERN U.S. 12Z SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUE. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AT THE START WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT PCPN WINDS DOWN ON SAT NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR RAIN COME IN FOR MON INTO TUE AS A WARM FRONT SETS UP TO
THE SOUTH AND ALLOWS SOME OVERRUNNING TO OCCUR OVER THE AREA AND
HAVE CHANCE POPS THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR MASS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS CLEARING OUT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. ALTHOUGH A DISTURBANCE WILL
TRACK SE OVER OR JUST N OF THE AREA TODAY...LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THIS FCST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20-25KT
LATE MORNING AND AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED BLO GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW
GRADIENT WEAKENS BETWEEN LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND HIGH PRES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR NW WINDS 20-30 KTS...STRONGEST EAST
HALF TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT (GENERALLY TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS)
WINDS WILL THEN BACK W-SW ON WED AND BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS
STRONGEST WEST AND NCNTRL AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA.
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION TO SEE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW IN CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR GALES WOULD BE ON THU NIGHT-FRI FOR THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPER TROUGH AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID-LVL TROUGH OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NE U.S. AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SFC...A LOW PRES SYSTEM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. COLD ADVECTION IN MOIST CYCLONIC NW
FLOW IS STILL PRODUCING ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR NW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SFC LOW SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY LIFTS QUICKLY EAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
BACKING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ALSO LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
TO END OVERNIGHT NCNTRL AND EAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO SKIRT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
WED. WEAK 700-300 MB Q-VECT CONVERGENCE FROM SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW-
LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ASSOC SFC TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE ERN THIRD OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON PER MODEL
QPF OUTPUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER
ALGER...LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING
SKIES TO RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING OVER THE WRN INTERIOR TO THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S EAST AND NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE TAIL OF TWO HALVES...WITH THE
FIRST HALF EXPERIENCING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION AND THE SECOND HALF WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST...AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE
AND TOWARDS LUCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE TOO
LIMITED FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE COLDEST
AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. A MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN AND THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AMPLIFY THE TROUGH OVER THE
REGION AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT (BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH) AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL
BE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT AROUND -8C. AS THAT COLD AIR ARRIVES...SHOULD SEE LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION PICK UP THROUGH THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POCKETS OF DRIER AIR SLIDING THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT WITH THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FAIRLY STRONG (DELTA-T
VALUES OF 16-20) WILL SHOW CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THAT
TIME FOR AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AND WE CAN FINE
TUNE THE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION PERIODS AS WE GET CLOSER. AS FOR
PRECIP TYPE...EXPECT IT TO START AS RAIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...BUT AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES IN IT WILL
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL) DUE TO THE WETBULB0 HEIGHTS CRASHING BELOW
700FT. WETBULB0 HEIGHTS DO TRY TO HANG ON BETWEEN 700-1300FT OVER
THE EASTERN CWA (AIDED BY THE LAKE MODIFIED AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR)
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THAT AREA FOR FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING TO MAINLY SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FORM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A NICE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO
SURGE TO 10C AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND POSSIBLY A
FEW 60S OVER THE FAR WEST. MODELS HAVE CHANGED UP THE THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STRONG LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN CANADA AND SWEEPING A TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THAT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY OR STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AT
THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR MASS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS CLEARING OUT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. ALTHOUGH A DISTURBANCE WILL
TRACK SE OVER OR JUST N OF THE AREA TODAY...LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THIS FCST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20-25KT
LATE MORNING AND AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED BLO GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW
GRADIENT WEAKENS BETWEEN LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND HIGH PRES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR NW WINDS 20-30 KTS...STRONGEST EAST
HALF TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT (GENERALLY TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS)
WINDS WILL THEN BACK W-SW ON WED AND BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS
STRONGEST WEST AND NCNTRL AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA.
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION TO SEE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW IN CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR GALES WOULD BE ON THU NIGHT-FRI FOR THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPER TROUGH AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1022 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO NY AND PA FRIDAY MORNING. A
SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BIG DROP
IN TEMPERATURES, AND WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUES TO MARCH ACROSS OUR
AREA. THE FRONT ITSELF IS NOW OVER WESTERN NY. WE HAVE SEEN TWO
IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINES COMING OFF LAKE ERIE BUT THESE HAVE BOTH
FALLEN APART. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR OUR AREA WILL BE
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN NOW MOVING INTO ELMIRA, CORTLAND
AND ITHACA. THIS AREA OF RAIN PRODUCED A GUST TO 40 MPH AT
SYRACUSE AND 42 MPH AT FINGER LAKES REGIONAL AIRPORT (JUST SOUTH
OF SENECA FALLS). I AM STILL EXPECTING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND
TO DIE OFF WITH EACH PASSING HOUR. SEE PREVIOUS AFD BELOW FOR
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. WITH THE HRRR AND LATEST
HI RESOLUTION MODELS STILL DOING WELL, INCREASE POPS FOR THE REST
OF NY TO 90%+ ALONG WITH THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA, WITH 60%+ DOWN
IN THE WYOMING VALLEY OF PA.
8 PM UPDATE... MADE BIG CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST,
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO 90%+ ACROSS NY STATE AND ABOVE 60%
IN PA. A COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST CROSSING LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN
LAKE ONTARIO. AHEAD AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING INTO OUR
AREA. GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER WESTERN NY,
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE ARE VERY LIKELY ESPECIALLY FROM
THE FINGER LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL NY, THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BASED ON
LIGHTNING OVER WESTERN NY AND THE SAME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOWING
UP ON HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INTO OUR AREA, ADDED CHANCE THUNDER
TO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREAS JUST MENTIONED. LIFTED INDICES IN
THESE AREAS ARE AROUND 0, OR ABOUT WHAT THEY ARE NOW IN BUFFALO
WHERE THEY ARE SEEING SOME LIGHTNING.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST RAIN WILL MAKE IT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND NORTHERN PA LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY ALONG
THE NY/PA BORDER BUT THE MAGNITUDE WILL REALLY DROP OFF INTO
NEPA, WHICH IS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY DUE TO ABOVE
NORMAL LAKE TO 850MB LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER WITH STRONG DOWNWARD
MOTION BEHIND EXITING ENERGY, IT APPEARS THE SHOWERS WILL BE
MINIMAL AND MAINLY EAST/DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS
TO BE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL OF THE SEASON. 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO -4C TO -6C LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, AND SOME OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS MAY CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
AS THE LAKE FLOW FALLS APART SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S,
INCLUDING OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND LACKAWANNA/LUZERNE COUNTIES
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE. A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 PM THURSDAY UPDATE... A DEEP EASTERN CANADIAN/NORTHEASTERN U.S.
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WILL LIFT OUT WITH TIME
THEREAFTER, AS HEIGHTS ALOFT SIGNIFICANTLY BUILD NEXT WEEK OVER
THE EASTERN U.S.
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY MONDAY, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NY, WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY, WITH SURFACE RIDGING COMING IN
FROM THE WEST.
OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, CLOSER TO A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY, IT WILL BE
DRY AND MILDER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S-LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN MILD, BUT OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAY
INCREASE BY LATER IN THE DAY, AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
IS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, WHEN SOME PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT KRME, KSYR, KITH, AND KBGM, WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-10 KT THIS EVENING, WILL SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS/MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED,
PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL NY, AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH, OR EVEN
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS.
MON-TUE...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1041 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A DEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO MID-DAY FRIDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED APART FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/
UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS & WX GRIDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE HRRR IS DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB WITH
TONIGHTS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DIG
ACROSS OUR AREA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING IS BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY
160700. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT. A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.
MODELS SHOW A PATTERN SHIFT NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
DISTURBANCES COULD MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY SOME OF THE TROUGH
BECOMES A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW U.S./MEXICO WHILE THE REST OF THE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE CLOSED LOW THEN OPENS UP AND
LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FA. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...
SOME DAYS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 69 47 74 / 20 20 0 0
HOBART OK 54 70 46 76 / 50 20 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 75 49 79 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 50 66 44 75 / 30 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 51 69 44 72 / 60 0 0 0
DURANT OK 58 78 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/09/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1008 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS & WX GRIDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE HRRR IS DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB WITH
TONIGHTS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DIG
ACROSS OUR AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING IS BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY
160700. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT. A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION.
MODELS SHOW A PATTERN SHIFT NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
DISTURBANCES COULD MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY SOME OF THE TROUGH
BECOMES A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SW U.S./MEXICO WHILE THE REST OF THE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE CLOSED LOW THEN OPENS UP AND
LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE FA. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...
SOME DAYS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 55 69 47 74 / 20 20 0 0
HOBART OK 54 70 46 76 / 50 20 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 58 75 49 79 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 50 66 44 75 / 30 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 51 69 44 72 / 60 0 0 0
DURANT OK 58 78 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
68/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
919 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Cold front is making steady progress to the south this evening and
will exit the area by midnight or shortly thereafter. A band of
showers and thunderstorms has developed behind the front near the
Oklahoma/Kansas border and the latest runs of the HRRR support
this activity continuing for the next few hours as it progresses
to the south and southeast. As such, have raised pops considerably
overnight across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The
showers and storms are still expected to weaken and dissipate
before reaching southeast Oklahoma so will maintain a dry forecast
there. The current low temperature forecast appears reasonable at
this time.
Update on the way.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05
PLATE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1125 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE
THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
AND FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BRING AN END
TO THE GROWING SEASON. THE SEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS MOVING STEADILY BUT SLOWLY THROUGH THE NRN MTNS. FINE LINE
OF COOLER AIR/GUST FRONT MOVING THROUGH KDUJ/KPIT RIGHT NOW AND
MAY SIGNAL A LITTLE WEAKENING/FRACTURING IS POSSIBLE SOON. A
COUPLE OF LINES OF STORMS FIRED UP IN WRN NY AND THE CURRENT ONE
IS LESS THAN A COUNTY AWAY FROM THE PA BORDER. SUSPECT THIS LINE
IS THE REAL FRONT - WITH A DECENT WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT. SOME 50KT
WINDS WILL SNEAK INTO FAR NRN PA AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT THE
STABLE/COOL LAYER IN PLACE FROM THE CURRENT RAIN SHOULD HELP TO
MINIMIZE GUST POTENTIAL. GUSTS INTO THE 30S ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN
THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER THOUGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING
THUNDER FOR NOW. BUT A STRAY RUMBLE IS POSSIBLE. HAVE BLENDED THE
GOING FCST WITH THE HRRR MDL RADAR PROGS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE PREV FCST AND PROVIDES SOME
SLIGHTLY REFINED TIMING/COVG. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK. CLOUDS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL JUST BEFORE THE PRECIP ARRIVES.
PREV...
BAND OF SHOWERS PARALLEL TO THE LOWER LAKES IS SLIDING TO THE ESE
ON SCHEDULE. THE RAIN IS NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY...BUT THE DYNAMICS
MUST BE PRETTY STRONG WITH LIGHTNING NOW OCCURRING IN ERIE. COULD
GUST INTO THE 30S IN ONE OF THE HEAVIER CELLS AS WINDS NOT TOO FAR
ALOFT ARE CLOSE TO 35KTS...AND INCREASE/LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CLOUD BAND STAYS RATHER COHERENT AS IT SLIPS TO THE SE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE DECREASES AND LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES SHOULD BE LEFT BY 2/3AM AS IT GETS INTO THE LOWER SUSQ.
SOME CLEARING MAY TRY TO TAKE PLACE AFTER THE MAIN BAND GOES BY
BUT THE CAA AFTERWARD WILL LIKELY CREATE ADDITIONAL/UPSLOPE CLOUDS
IN THE NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA TRACKS COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
ADVECTION OF LOW PWAT AIR MASS IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
DRY FRIDAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WILL BE DIVING SE FROM THE GRT LKS LATE IN
THE DAY...LIKELY SPREADING SCT SHOWERS INTO THE NW COUNTIES BY
LATE AFTN. ANY QPF FROM THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS ARND 5C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE L50S OVR
THE NW MTNS...TO THE M60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COOL SHOWERY REGIME WILL PERSIST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP CANADIAN UPPER TROF TRACKS FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND EAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER
THE CHILLIEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR AND A WIDESPREAD CHC OF
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
LATER SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A LAKE
SUPERIOR/HURON CONNECTION SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF MORE SOMEWHAT
MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. AS
EARLIER NOTED...BLYR AND GROUND TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WARM
FOR ACCUMS UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A DUSTING
OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN OVERALL DETAILS TODAY AS COLD POOL CROSSES
THE STATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND A RETURN TO
NICE FALL WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS
ON THE COLD FOR SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH IS LIKELY TO END THE
GROWING SEASON FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA...AND ON TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF APPROACHING FRONT TOWARDS MIDWEEK OR BEYOND AS SFC HIGH
REMAINS LODGED ALONG AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WED/THU. INTRODUCED SLGT/CHC SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH LINGERS THU AND FRI AS SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGS
ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FREEZE SAT NIGHT...
STILL EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO OCCUR SUN NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND A LGT WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL BLW FREEZING OVR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 03Z TAF PACKAGE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BFD AND JST.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. DYNAMICS RATHER STRONG. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REPORTS OF THUNDER ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AREA...EVEN WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE.
EXPECT WINDS TO BACK A LITTLE ON FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME SCT IN MOST SPOTS.
MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT BFD BY EARLY EVENING ON FRIDAY...AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MVFR CIGS/-SHRASN WRN TAFS. LOW VFR CIGS CNTRL/EAST.
WIND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.
MON-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CERU/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1003 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE
THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
AND FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BRING AN END
TO THE GROWING SEASON. THE SEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS MOVING STEADILY BUT SLOWLY THROUGH THE NRN MTNS. FINE LINE
OF COOLER AIR/GUST FRONT MOVING THROUGH KDUJ/KPIT RIGHT NOW AND
MAY SIGNAL A LITTLE WEAKENING/FRACTURING IS POSSIBLE SOON. A
COUPLE OF LINES OF STORMS FIRED UP IN WRN NY AND THE CURRENT ONE
IS LESS THAN A COUNTY AWAY FROM THE PA BORDER. SUSPECT THIS LINE
IS THE REAL FRONT - WITH A DECENT WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT. SOME 50KT
WINDS WILL SNEAK INTO FAR NRN PA AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT THE
STABLE/COOL LAYER IN PLACE FROM THE CURRENT RAIN SHOULD HELP TO
MINIMIZE GUST POTENTIAL. GUSTS INTO THE 30S ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN
THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER THOUGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING
THUNDER FOR NOW. BUT A STRAY RUMBLE IS POSSIBLE. HAVE BLENDED THE
GOING FCST WITH THE HRRR MDL RADAR PROGS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE PREV FCST AND PROVIDES SOME
SLIGHTLY REFINED TIMING/COVG. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK. CLOUDS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL JUST BEFORE THE PRECIP ARRIVES.
PREV...
BAND OF SHOWERS PARALLEL TO THE LOWER LAKES IS SLIDING TO THE ESE
ON SCHEDULE. THE RAIN IS NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY...BUT THE DYNAMICS
MUST BE PRETTY STRONG WITH LIGHTNING NOW OCCURRING IN ERIE. COULD
GUST INTO THE 30S IN ONE OF THE HEAVIER CELLS AS WINDS NOT TOO FAR
ALOFT ARE CLOSE TO 35KTS...AND INCREASE/LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CLOUD BAND STAYS RATHER COHERENT AS IT SLIPS TO THE SE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE DECREASES AND LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES SHOULD BE LEFT BY 2/3AM AS IT GETS INTO THE LOWER SUSQ.
SOME CLEARING MAY TRY TO TAKE PLACE AFTER THE MAIN BAND GOES BY
BUT THE CAA AFTERWARD WILL LIKELY CREATE ADDITIONAL/UPSLOPE CLOUDS
IN THE NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA TRACKS COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
ADVECTION OF LOW PWAT AIR MASS IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
DRY FRIDAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WILL BE DIVING SE FROM THE GRT LKS LATE IN
THE DAY...LIKELY SPREADING SCT SHOWERS INTO THE NW COUNTIES BY
LATE AFTN. ANY QPF FROM THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS ARND 5C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE L50S OVR
THE NW MTNS...TO THE M60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COOL SHOWERY REGIME WILL PERSIST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP CANADIAN UPPER TROF TRACKS FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND EAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER
THE CHILLIEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR AND A WIDESPREAD CHC OF
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
LATER SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A LAKE
SUPERIOR/HURON CONNECTION SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF MORE SOMEWHAT
MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. AS
EARLIER NOTED...BLYR AND GROUND TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WARM
FOR ACCUMS UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A DUSTING
OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN OVERALL DETAILS TODAY AS COLD POOL CROSSES
THE STATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND A RETURN TO
NICE FALL WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS
ON THE COLD FOR SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH IS LIKELY TO END THE
GROWING SEASON FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA...AND ON TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF APPROACHING FRONT TOWARDS MIDWEEK OR BEYOND AS SFC HIGH
REMAINS LODGED ALONG AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WED/THU. INTRODUCED SLGT/CHC SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH LINGERS THU AND FRI AS SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGS
ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FREEZE SAT NIGHT...
STILL EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO OCCUR SUN NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND A LGT WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL BLW FREEZING OVR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN VFR...BUT MVFR AND EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BFD AND JST.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. DYNAMICS RATHER STRONG. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
REPORTS OF THUNDER ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AREA...EVEN WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE.
EXPECT WINDS TO BACK A LITTLE ON FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME SCT IN MOST SPOTS.
MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT BFD BY EARLY EVENING ON FRIDAY...AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MVFR CIGS/-SHRASN WRN TAFS. LOW VFR CIGS CNTRL/EAST.
WIND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.
MON-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CERU/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
906 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. KNQA
SHOWING A NICE FINE LINE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MEMPHIS METRO
ATTM. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL WORK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN AMOUNT OF COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND LATEST HRRR DATA. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
DIMINISH AS THE SHOWERS HEAD SOUTH AND LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
WEAKENS. WINDS WILL START PICKING UP BEHIND THE FRONT...SPREADING
SOUTH BY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED UP
AND...ALONG WITH ANY CLOUDS...PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
BY MORNING. FORECAST LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S LOOKS GOOD. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.
SJM
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES WERE RANGING FROM NEAR 80F ALONG THE LOWER
TENNESSEE RIVER...TO RECORD BREAKING LOW 90S FROM THE MEMPHIS
METRO DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES. WINDS WERE SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 30 PERCENT.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED CLOUDS
AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH...OTHERWISE A
VERY DRY AND COOL WEEKEND IS IN STORE. THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP NEARLY 20 DEGREES TOMORROW SO WILL DEWPOINTS. FROM THIS
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL RAISE MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WITH
POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI. NOT
MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BE A TAD
LIGHTER. THE BRUNT OF THE CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S.
FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EASTERN COUNTIES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING...BUT QUESTIONS
ARISE ON WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL HUG THE GROUND FOR FROST TO
EVEN FORM...SO MADE MENTION OF THE POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON
HWO. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
SLIDING EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH DRY INITIALLY WITH A
SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE BY MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT DROPPING COLD
FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINOR HOWEVER AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH
LIFTS OUT AND THE SOUTHERN ENERGY IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER NW
MEXICO. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
EARLY WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY WEDNESDAY.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASE IN SPEED. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 16 KTS OR GREATER
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MEM AND JBR AS WINDS AT 1000 FEET APPROACH 30
KTS AND MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE STRONG TOMORROW AS A
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG 12-16 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 25KTS AT ALL SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AC3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
325 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP WEATHER PATTERN QUIET AND
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S HAS PUSHED INTO THE REGION NORTH OF A
COTULLA TO CORPUS CHRISTI LINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PUSH IN HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FOR TONIGHT. SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS GOOD
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA AREA AS 12Z NAM AND
LATEST RAP MODELS INDICATE. WILL SHOW AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR INLAND COASTAL PLAINS.
EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SURFACE-85H LAYER INTO THE COASTAL BEND THURSDAY. LEANED TOWARD
THE COOLER NAM FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY. RADIATIONAL FOG
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER INLAND AREAS AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE RETURN FINALLY RESUMES THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND
OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL BEND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DISCREPANCIES AS YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR A DAY 7 AND 8
FORECAST...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE AND GENERALLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC
FLOW WARRANT MENTION ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
INFLOW LOOKS TO BE STRONGER.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS SHOULD ACT TO REDUCE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...BUT EXPECT OVERALL TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 90 71 91 69 / 0 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 61 91 65 91 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 71 93 71 93 66 / 0 10 10 0 0
ALICE 67 92 67 93 66 / 0 10 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 71 88 72 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 64 93 65 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 67 91 68 92 67 / 0 10 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 73 88 74 88 74 / 0 10 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1035 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONCERT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH 500MB IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN. SEVERAL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OF SMALL HAIL IN THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF MINNESOTA. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER EXISTS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIP TRENDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY IN THE
EVENING TAKING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AND MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL TO MINUS 7-8C OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER N-C WISCONSIN.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARRIVE ELSEWHERE AS THE COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NE WISCONSIN. WITH A GUSTY NW WIND...LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. NO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR
THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE TONIGHT DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MORNING OVER N-
C WI. ELSEWHERE...SCT MORNING CLOUDS MAY TURN BROKEN FOR A PERIOD
LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. BUT THERE WILL BE AMPLE DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE ANY DIURNAL CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...SO CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST LONGER OVER N-C WI. COOL HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL ALLOW
VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. LAKE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SMALL MIXED PCPN CHANCES MAY LINGER OVER THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE THE DRYING AIR MASS WITH
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
WILL EVENTUALLY PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES. THE PRIMARY ISSUE WILL BE
THE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES...TEENS NORTH TO 20S CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HOIST A FREEZE
WATCH FOR EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN INCLUDING THE LAKESHORE REGION
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE AND BAY WILL
LIKELY BE PROTECTED BUT INLAND AREAS OF DOOR WILL AT LEAST SEE A
GOOD FROST. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS SATURDAY MORNING...MORE
FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED THE FOLLOWING NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATER SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
THEN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. SOME PROGS ATTEMPT TO BRING IN PCPN
MONDAY WITH THE WAA...BUT WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE
START OF THE DAY DUE TO THE AIR MASS WILL NEED TO SATURATE FROM
THE RECENT INTRUSION OF LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
PROGS INDICATE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TIMING SLOWLY DIVERT AS THE WEAK WEARS ON.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NARROW PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH THE BEST WAA WILL SLIDE
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ONLY A GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO BRUSH OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER DEVELOPING AND
POSSIBLE DEEPER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
LAKE-EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING.
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE. EVEN THOUGH MOST OF
THE PCPN SHOULD STAY NORTH OF RHI...THEY SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS
OF MVFR CIGS THERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH BRISK NW WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...AND CONTINUING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CAUSING PARTIAL CLEARING AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ022-038>040-048>050.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
618 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONCERT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH 500MB IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN. SEVERAL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OF SMALL HAIL IN THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF MINNESOTA. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER EXISTS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIP TRENDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY IN THE
EVENING TAKING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AND MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL TO MINUS 7-8C OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER N-C WISCONSIN.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARRIVE ELSEWHERE AS THE COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NE WISCONSIN. WITH A GUSTY NW WIND...LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. NO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR
THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE TONIGHT DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MORNING OVER N-
C WI. ELSEWHERE...SCT MORNING CLOUDS MAY TURN BROKEN FOR A PERIOD
LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. BUT THERE WILL BE AMPLE DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE ANY DIURNAL CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...SO CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST LONGER OVER N-C WI. COOL HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL ALLOW
VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. LAKE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SMALL MIXED PCPN CHANCES MAY LINGER OVER THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE THE DRYING AIR MASS WITH
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
WILL EVENTUALLY PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES. THE PRIMARY ISSUE WILL BE
THE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES...TEENS NORTH TO 20S CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HOIST A FREEZE
WATCH FOR EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN INCLUDING THE LAKESHORE REGION
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE AND BAY WILL
LIKELY BE PROTECTED BUT INLAND AREAS OF DOOR WILL AT LEAST SEE A
GOOD FROST. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS SATURDAY MORNING...MORE
FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED THE FOLLOWING NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATER SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
THEN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. SOME PROGS ATTEMPT TO BRING IN PCPN
MONDAY WITH THE WAA...BUT WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE
START OF THE DAY DUE TO THE AIR MASS WILL NEED TO SATURATE FROM
THE RECENT INTRUSION OF LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
PROGS INDICATE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TIMING SLOWLY DIVERT AS THE WEAK WEARS ON.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NARROW PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH THE BEST WAA WILL SLIDE
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ONLY A GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO BRUSH OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER DEVELOPING AND
POSSIBLE DEEPER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING...CAUSING SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF...EXCEPT
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI...WHERE LAKE-ENHANCED SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST AT LEAST INTO FRI MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE
PCPN SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE RHI TAF SITE. WILL PROBABLY
SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CIGS AT RHI AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH BRISK NW WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
LATE IN THE DAY...CAUSING PARTIAL CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ022-038>040-048>050.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO THIS SURFACE
HIGH...AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS THE LOW DROPS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CLOUD TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
WESTERLY BREEZE. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME DISCUSSION WHETHER
SPRINKLES COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE
QUITE DRY BELOW 700MB. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S.
THURSDAY...MID-CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW OVER ONTARIO AND FILTER SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BECOME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. COLDER DRIER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA
ON NORTHWEST WINDS. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -8 C ACROSS THE NORTH BY
FRIDAY MORNING. DELTA T/S AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SUPPORT A LIGHT
MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS...ANY SNOW MIX WILL LIKELY BE DOWNSTREAM
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP THE LATER PERIODS STARTING FRIDAY
EVENING DRY AS A DRIER AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S
FILTER INTO THE AREA. TRAJECTORY MAY STILL PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN
ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER FRIDAY...BUT BIGGER ISSUES COULD BE
FORECAST TEMPS VS AMOUNT OF LAKE CLOUD PLUME DEVELOPMENT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN
STATES AND NUDGE THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL STATES FOR THE
WEEKEND FOR A PLEASANT BUT COOL WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK
WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. PROG TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THIS NEXT
WAVE AND RESULTANT NEXT PCPN CHANCES FOR LATER MONDAY. THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY AID IN SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN
TO KEEP PCPN CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
FORECAST LOW TEMPS FOR SAT MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL OF KILLING FROSTS OR FREEZE. OUTDOOR INTERESTS WILL
NEED ANTICIPATE THESE CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE GROWING
SEASON FOR THE REMAINING REGION OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH
GUSTY WSW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WNW WINDS ON THURSDAY. PERIODS
OF SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1055 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN
DIABLO RANGE SOUTH INTO MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR THE SLO/SANTA BARBARA COUNTY COASTLINE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A LINE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE NORTH BAY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE THERE HAD BEEN A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ACTION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
THAT IS NOW CHANGING. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN SAN BENITO COUNTY
AND SOUTHEAST MONTEREY COUNTY. ALSO...SHOWERS HAVE ALSO RECENTLY
DEVELOPED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BIG SUR COAST. PREVIOUSLY THE MODELS
HAD INDICATED ALL PRECIP WOULD END IN OUR AREA BY LATE THIS
EVENING. BUT LATEST NAM AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE HRRR MODEL
SHOWS BANDS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP REACHING FARTHER NORTH INTO SANTA
CLARA AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA...BELIEVE THE HRRR MAY HAVE THE RIGHT
IDEA HERE. A FORECAST UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING INCLUDED
EXPANDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MORE OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...AND ALSO EXTENDING
THOSE CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT INSTEAD OF LIMITING THEM TO THE
EVENING HOURS. SOME MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE LINGERING CONVECTIVE
PRECIP ON INTO FRIDAY...PUT MAINLY OVER SCATTERED PORTIONS OF
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA SHOULD BE DRY ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO A MODEST UPTICK
IN ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG
135W...IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY
LATE TOMORROW NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. MOST MODEL OUTPUT
INDICATES LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTH BAY BY SATURDAY
MORNING...AND PERHAPS INTO NORTH BAY COASTAL AREAS BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. POPS ARE CURRENTLY NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE AND WE MAY
NEED TO BOOST THOSE A BIT IN THE NORTH BAY GIVEN CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN CA COAST ON SATURDAY
EVENING AND THEN DIG THAT LOW TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP ISOLATED LIGHT PRECIP OVER PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BUT FOR MOST OF OUR AREA...THESE TWO MODELS
FORECAST DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE
12Z CANADIAN MODEL DROPS THE LOW ALMOST DUE SOUTH AND FORECASTS
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. WILL DISCOUNT THE 12Z CANADIAN FOR NOW...BUT THE DRY
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY DOES CONTAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MOSTLY AGREE THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
.&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
AREA. RADAR IS PICKING UP LIGHT PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE MRY BAY
AREA BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS
MOVED INTO THE MRY BAY AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BUT HAS SINCE MIXED
OUT. CIGS CURRENTLY OVER HAF AND THE CITY OF SAN FRANCISCO.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP SPREAD THESE CLOUDS INTO THE SFO AND MRY
BAY AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS AFTER 12Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH AS INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA MAY KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS
MIXED OUT.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: SIMS
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
458 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PVA PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING. SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CLUSTERED BY MODELS AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA BY 11-15Z. LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK
LIFT WILL ONLY RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PERHAPS SOME WEAK CAPE FURTHER EAST COULD RESULT IN SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION AND INCREASE IN THE SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME EAST
ZONES...BUT THAT REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST HRRR NOT OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH ANY OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.
BY AFTERNOON...UPPER SHORTWAVE/PVA MOVES EAST WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SUNSHINE
RETURNS...AND THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND FOR TODAY/S HIGH/S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/PVA PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF TROUGH. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC COLD
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CANADIAN AIR USHERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...WITH STRONG CAA
ENSURING COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON.
GUSTY NW FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND OUT AHEAD OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...BUT DO NOT FORESEE WIDESPREAD FROST
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOS TEMPS BORDERLINE...AND PATCHY
CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. 500 HPA
HEIGHTS ARE MODELED TO FALL TO 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SUNDAY. AT 850
HPA...TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO FALL TO BETWEEN -6C
AND -9C. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO 15C BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH OF ALL OF THIS IN MIND...A CHILLY PERIOD
OF WEATHER IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
AS THE COLD AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON BECOMES LIKELY ACROSS
INTERIOR ZONES. PER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
ISSUED IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO LATE IN THE DAY
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. THE REGION WILL ALSO BRIEFLY LIE NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF 130+ KT JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BETWEEN ABOUT 18Z SUN TO 00Z MON. THE SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES. AN EVEN COLDER NIGHT IS LIKELY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS
SHOULD LIGHTEN ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ARE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS COASTAL CONNECTICUT...LONG ISLAND...AND NEW YORK CITY METRO
SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE MONDAY AS MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST
BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS. A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN THEN TAKES SHAPE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SW
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND 850 HPA TEMPS RISING CLOSE TO 10C BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR TUESDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH SO CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY TUESDAY.
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THE NORTHERN JET STREAM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING FROM 10Z-13Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A BRIEF
SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES.
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE NW WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS MAGNITUDE. DEEP MIXING TODAY SHOULD ALLOW GUSTS TO HANG ON
THROUGH FIRST HALF OF AFT. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
STRONG GUST UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS...BOTH THE ONSET AND ENDING
MAY BE 1-2 HOURS EARLIER.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS...BOTH THE ONSET AND ENDING
MAY BE 1-2 HOURS EARLIER.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS...BOTH THE ONSET AND ENDING
MAY BE 1-2 HOURS EARLIER.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS...BOTH THE ONSET AND ENDING
MAY BE 1-2 HOURS EARLIER.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS...BOTH THE ONSET AND ENDING
MAY BE 1-2 HOURS EARLIER.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS...BOTH THE ONSET AND ENDING
MAY BE 1-2 HOURS EARLIER.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT-SUN...VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT.
.MON-TUE...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...WINDS WILL GUST
TO 25 KTS OR HIGHER OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. A BRIEF OR OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 25 KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR NON OCEAN WATERS THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH...OR AN ADEQUATE LONG
DURATION FOR ISSUANCE OF AN SCA FOR THOSE NON OCEAN WATERS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FOR SATURDAY. AS SUCH...LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT
INCREASE SATURDAY IN A GUSTY NW FLOW.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR BORDERLINE WINDS
THIS MORNING...AND BUILDING SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FEET.
ALL WATERS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY...BUT WILL
WAIT UNTIL CURRENT HEADLINE IS NO LONGER NEEDED.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 KT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN
RELAX ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353-
355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
323 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH
MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PVA PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING. SFC LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CLUSTERED BY MODELS AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA BY 11-15Z. LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK
LIFT WILL ONLY RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PERHAPS SOME WEAK CAPE FURTHER EAST COULD RESULT IN SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION AND INCREASE IN THE SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME EAST
ZONES...BUT THAT REMAINS UNCLEAR. LATEST HRRR NOT OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE WITH ANY OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.
BY AFTERNOON...UPPER SHORTWAVE/PVA MOVES EAST WITH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST IN WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SUNSHINE
RETURNS...AND THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. FOLLOWED A MOS BLEND FOR TODAY/S HIGH/S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/PVA PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF TROUGH. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC COLD
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CANADIAN AIR USHERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...WITH STRONG CAA
ENSURING COOLEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON.
GUSTY NW FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND
THE FRONT...AND OUT AHEAD OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LIFT.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY...BUT DO NOT FORESEE WIDESPREAD FROST
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOS TEMPS BORDERLINE...AND PATCHY
CLOUDS SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. TEMPS ON
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. 500 HPA
HEIGHTS ARE MODELED TO FALL TO 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SUNDAY. AT 850
HPA...TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO FALL TO BETWEEN -6C
AND -9C. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO 15C BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH OF ALL OF THIS IN MIND...A CHILLY PERIOD
OF WEATHER IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
AS THE COLD AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON BECOMES LIKELY ACROSS
INTERIOR ZONES. PER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
ISSUED IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO LATE IN THE DAY
ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. THE REGION WILL ALSO BRIEFLY LIE NEAR THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF 130+ KT JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BETWEEN ABOUT 18Z SUN TO 00Z MON. THE SHORTWAVE
QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES. AN EVEN COLDER NIGHT IS LIKELY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS
SHOULD LIGHTEN ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ARE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS COASTAL CONNECTICUT...LONG ISLAND...AND NEW YORK CITY METRO
SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE MONDAY AS MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST
BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS. A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN THEN TAKES SHAPE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SW
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND 850 HPA TEMPS RISING CLOSE TO 10C BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR TUESDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES WELL TO
THE NORTH SO CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY TUESDAY.
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THE NORTHERN JET STREAM MAY APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING FROM 10Z-13Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A BRIEF
SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES.
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE NW WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS MAGNITUDE. DEEP MIXING TODAY SHOULD ALLOW GUSTS TO HANG ON
THROUGH FIRST HALF OF AFT. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
STRONG GUST UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT-SUN...VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT.
.MON-TUE...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...WINDS WILL GUST
TO 25 KTS OR HIGHER OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. A BRIEF OR OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 25 KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR NON OCEAN WATERS THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH...OR AN ADEQUATE LONG
DURATION FOR ISSUANCE OF AN SCA FOR THOSE NON OCEAN WATERS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FOR SATURDAY. AS SUCH...LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT
INCREASE SATURDAY IN A GUSTY NW FLOW.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SCA FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR BORDERLINE WINDS
THIS MORNING...AND BUILDING SEAS CLOSE TO 5 FEET.
ALL WATERS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY...BUT WILL
WAIT UNTIL CURRENT HEADLINE IS NO LONGER NEEDED.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEAN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 KT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN
RELAX ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353-
355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...DS/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
213 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AFTER 3 OR 4AM FOR FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK FOR POINTS EAST. LATEST HRRR CONCURS WITH LOW COVERAGE.
MAV/NAM MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. THE SLIGHT EXCEPTION MAY BE
FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER INSTABILITY FOR THESE AREAS
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... WHICH SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE MORNING.
CLOUDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A MODERATE WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO
LIMITED FOR A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE SHOWER...SO WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FORECAST. LOCALIZED FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME OF
THE NORTHERN SUBURBS...BUT WITH FCST LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND
THE POTENTIAL OF A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE FALL. WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S ARE LIKELY FOR THE INTERIOR AND PARTS OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND WHILE LOWS WILL DROP IN THE 30S MOST ELSEWHERE.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ONLY CARRY A HIDDEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THAT TIME.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO HIGHS IN THE 60S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE THEN...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS TOWARDS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING FROM 10Z-13Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A BRIEF
SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES.
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE NW WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS MAGNITUDE. DEEP MIXING TODAY SHOULD ALLOW GUSTS TO HANG ON
THROUGH FIRST HALF OF AFT. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
STRONG GUST UP TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SAT-SUN...VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT.
.MON-TUE...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.
SEAS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS SHOULD TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE
WITH A WESTERLY FLOW...SO THE SCA ENDS WEST OF MORICHES INLET AT
18Z FRI...AND CONTINUES TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
SOUND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. WOULD LIKE TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT BEFORE INCLUDING
THEM IN THE SCA.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SMALL CRAFT CONDS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN A COLD NW
FLOW. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...CONDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353-
355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC/JE/PW
SHORT TERM...JC/JE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1230 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION
FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOVES OFFSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO
THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AFTER 3 OR 4AM FOR FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK FOR POINTS EAST. LATEST HRRR CONCURS WITH LOW COVERAGE.
MAV/NAM MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR LOW TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. THE SLIGHT EXCEPTION MAY BE
FAR EASTERN ZONES WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER INSTABILITY FOR THESE AREAS
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... WHICH SHOULD BE OVER BY LATE MORNING.
CLOUDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A MODERATE WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO
LIMITED FOR A MENTION OF A POSSIBLE SHOWER...SO WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FORECAST. LOCALIZED FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME OF
THE NORTHERN SUBURBS...BUT WITH FCST LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND
THE POTENTIAL OF A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE FALL. WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPS WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S ARE LIKELY FOR THE INTERIOR AND PARTS OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND WHILE LOWS WILL DROP IN THE 30S MOST ELSEWHERE.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ONLY CARRY A HIDDEN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THAT TIME.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY MODERATING FROM HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO HIGHS IN THE 60S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE THEN...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS TOWARDS THE
REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS FRI MORNING.
TIMING OF FROPA WILL BE ABOUT 09Z-10Z KSWF...11Z NYC METRO...12Z
KBDR/KISP...AND 13Z KGON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH FROPA...TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAF ATTM BUT THAT COULD CHANGE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED WINDS...BUT ONLY MEDIUM FOR
GUSTS...WHICH ARE NOT INCLUDED RIGHT AFTER FROPA BUT COULD
BRIEFLY REACH 15-20 KT...THEN COULD BRIEFLY GUST OVER 15 KT FROM
ABOUT 14Z-16Z.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA ABOUT 11Z. BRIEF SHOWER WITH MVFR
CONDS AND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE WITH FROPA. BRIEF GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE FROM 14Z-16Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA ABOUT 11Z. BRIEF SHOWER WITH MVFR
CONDS AND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE WITH FROPA. BRIEF GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE FROM 14Z-16Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA ABOUT 11Z. BRIEF SHOWER WITH MVFR
CONDS AND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE WITH FROPA. BRIEF GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE FROM 14Z-16Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA ABOUT 11Z. BRIEF SHOWER WITH MVFR
CONDS AND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE WITH FROPA. BRIEF GUSTS TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE FROM 14Z-16Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA ABOUT 10Z-11Z. BRIEF SHOWER WITH
MVFR CONDS AND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE WITH FROPA. BRIEF GUSTS TO
25 KT POSSIBLE FROM 14Z-16Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: COLD FROPA ABOUT 12Z. BRIEF SHOWER WITH
MVFR CONDS AND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE WITH FROPA. BRIEF GUSTS TO
25 KT POSSIBLE FROM 15Z-17Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SAT THROUGH TUE...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT
DAYTIME SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.
SEAS ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS SHOULD TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE
WITH A WESTERLY FLOW...SO THE SCA ENDS WEST OF MORICHES INLET AT
18Z FRI...AND CONTINUES TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
SOUND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. WOULD LIKE TO
HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT BEFORE INCLUDING
THEM IN THE SCA.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SMALL CRAFT CONDS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN A COLD NW
FLOW. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...CONDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353-
355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MPS
NEAR TERM...JC/JE/PW
SHORT TERM...JC/JE
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...GOODMAN/JM
MARINE...JC/MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MPS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
408 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND TN
VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN
RETURNING TO THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DOWNSLOPING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALONG WITH DRYING. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AND THE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY WITH THE
ADVECTION WEAKENING LATE SUNDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR
OVER THE REGION EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
SUNDAYS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOWER 40S SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPEARING FOR THURSDAY. WITH COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE PATTERN THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WILL
BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO
CHANGE OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN MANY LOCATIONS CURRENTLY EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST MONDAY NIGHT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE NEAR AGS OVERNIGHT.
A DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LAMP AND HRRR SUGGEST SOME FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW...AND EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS TO INCREASE BY 12Z...SO WILL CONTINUE NO RESTRICTIONS. A
MOISTURE LIMITED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. WINDS OVERNIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE MORNING WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS BY 16Z. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH BEHIND FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
136 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO
SETTLE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AS A FAST MOVING AND MOISTURE LIMITED COLD FRONT REACHES
THE APPALACHIANS. A DRY AIR MASS AND WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HOLD CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON FRIDAY
MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND LIMITED WITH
THE FRONT WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO JUST OVER AN INCH AND
DOWNSLOPING 850MB FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL INHIBIT MUCH CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE DRY
FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND HIGHLIGHT SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE. A 1032MB SURFACE RIDGE WILL
BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY DESPITE SOME CLOUD
COVER DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND +14C TO +15C. MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHERN MIDLANDS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
IN THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP THROUGH
THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVENT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE DETERMINED BY THE COLD ADVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN THIS PERIOD...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY AND LOWER CONFIDENCE
ARISES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY FLATTENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS EASTWARD TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA BY
MONDAY EVENING. NO CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE VERY DRY AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE.
WE WILL EXPERIENCE OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FALL SEASON THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS SUN-TUE IN THE 60S AND MORNING LOWS
MON-TUE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THOSE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED A BIT FURTHER AS THE MOS
GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN COLDER WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS. FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE EACH OF THOSE MORNINGS AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC CIRCULATING AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH...BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM WED-THU AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE NEAR AGS OVERNIGHT.
A DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LAMP AND HRRR SUGGEST SOME FOG POSSIBLE AT AGS TERMINAL
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW...AND EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS TO INCREASE BY 12Z...SO WILL CONTINUE NO RESTRICTIONS. A
MOISTURE LIMITED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. WINDS OVERNIGHT LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURNG THE MORNING WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS BY 16Z. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH BEHIND FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
223 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...MAINLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS.
COOLER VALLEY TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY MIXED OUT FROM EARLIER
LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING BATTLING
TRYING TO BATTLE IN THE SOME OF THE DEEPER NORTHEAST VALLEYS...AS
EVIDENT AT THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS ARE GENERALLY RANGING FROM 55 TO
60 DEGREES...SO CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN THE 40S SEEM LIKE A REACH
AT THIS POINT. HAVE USED SOME OF THE BLENDED SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
FOR THE REST OF THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...WHICH SUGGESTS CONTINUED
MIXING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF TOWARDS DAWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LOWS WOULD BE MORE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH ANY MID
40S RESTRICTED TO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON
THE UPSTREAM TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
A FEW SPRINKLES ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
THE ROWAN COUNTY MESONET ALREADY RECORDING A TRACE OF PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...MOST PLACES SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS OR SO...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT HAS TO OVERCOME SOME DRY AIR.
THAT BEING SAID...NUDGED POP/SKY GRIDS TOWARDS THE HIGH RES HRRR
MODEL AND FRESHENED UP THE T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT
OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
SPRINKLES AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUE THEIR PUSH TOWARD CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. BUT FOR THE NEAR TERM...SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR AND THE GROUND WILL REMAIN DRY. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ALIGN T/TD
GRIDS WITH OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW DEW POINTS IN
PLACE. TO THE NORTHWEST...A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A DRY COLD FRONT CUTTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOCALLY...THE FULL
SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE BASE OF THE
BROAD NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS
WESTERN BASE. THIS WAVE...AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT...
THEN PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE WHOLE
TROUGH DESCENDING FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY CLEAR EVENING WITH LIKELY A
QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE VALLEYS IN THIS DRY
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL SET UP A GOOD RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS...WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT...HELP MIX OUT THE COLDER
VALLEY TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
STRAY SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES...TO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO DAWN. THIS MINOR PCPN THREAT PASSES OUT OF EAST
KENTUCKY EARLY FRIDAY WITH CLEARING ALSO QUICKLY TAKING PLACE.
THANKS TO RETURNING SUNSHINE...HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S DESPITE POST FRONTAL CAA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH READINGS
SETTLING IN THE MID 30S FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND FROST A GOOD
BET IN THESE SPOTS BY DAWN.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT DID NEED TO ADJUST THE T GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DROP OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND FOR T AND TD GRIDS. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO RATHER LOW POPS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS OUTSIDE OF THAT TIME FRAME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH PW`S DROPPING TO
AROUND OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS ARE FRONT AND CENTER. MOS GUIDANCE HAS THE COLDER VALLEYS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH WILL
BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND PLAN TO ISSUE AN SPS TO START HIGHLIGHTING
THE THREAT EVEN MORE. A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT
FAVORED OVER FOG...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. WHILE THE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...GRADIENT WILL STILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK TO SUPPORT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE TWO CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
AIR MASS WILL MODERATE WITH THE THREAT OF FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
DEPARTING. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT
12Z GFS HAD THIS FRONT DRY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BETTER FORCING TO
THE NORTH. THUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
SOME RECORD LOWS WITHIN REACH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY WARM AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND CEILINGS DOWN TO
AROUND 5-6K FEET AGL IN PLACES THROUGH 12Z...PARTICULARLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. THE FRONT AND THICKER CLOUD
COVER WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 12 AND
15Z...WITH CLEAR SKIES FOLLOWING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING PEAK
MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY LIGHTENING TO LESS THAN 5 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
149 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY...AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK...AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO REFLECT 00Z OBS. PER LATEST IR/WV SAT IMAGERY...HAVE
SLOWED DOWN INCREASING CLOUDS UNTIL AFTER 09Z /TOWARD DAWN/
ACROSS THE WEST, AND INTO LATER FRI MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1020MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. 1004MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED N OF
LAKE HURON ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS DIVING
THROUGH INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE LOCALLY. EXPECT A CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY...ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE PIEDMONT LATE. A LIGHT SW WIND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW TEMPERATURES FROM LAST
NIGHT...WITH MINIMA AVERAGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND...TO
THE LOW/MID 50S FOR COASTAL AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP LAYER ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW...AND THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE W. 15/12Z GFS/ECMWF/NAM EACH DEMONSTRATE
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. 15/12Z GFS/NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS CONCENTRATED BETWEEN
700-500MB...WITH RATHER DRY CONDITIONS BELOW THIS LAYER. OVERALL
THIS PATTERN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR PCPN...BUT A 20% POP FOR -SHRA
WILL BE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA GIVEN DECENT MID-LEVEL ENERGY.
A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH...WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED FROM THE W AS THE TROUGH PULLS OFFSHORE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED TO TREND HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO EARLIER ONSET OF CLOUDS ACRS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...EXPECT HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND CENTRAL...TO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN NE NC.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION FRIDAY EVENING...WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY. COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE LOW 40S OVER THE
PIEDMONT TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW
0C ACROSS THE N DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND AVERAGE 2-4C ACROSS
SRN PORTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NW...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE (1030+ MB) CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR DECOUPLING (AND POTENTIAL FREEZE) WILL BE OVER THE
PIEDMONT SUNDAY MORNING WHERE LOW ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE
LOW 30S...WITH MID/UPPER 30S FARTHER E...AND LOW/MID 40S FOR SE
COASTAL AREAS. COOL AND SUNNY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S N...TO NEAR 60 S...OR ABOUT -1.5 ST DEV BELOW SEASONAL
MEANS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THE COLDEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS SEASON ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER PA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL
ADVERTISE H85 TEMPS HOVERING BETWEEN 0 C OVER ERN NC TO -4 C ACROSS
THE MD ERN SHORE. THIS IS -2 TO -2.5 STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LOWS TEMPS SUN NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 30-34 DEG FOR MOST
INTERIOR LOCATIONS...TO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES THEN FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 MON MORNING. WIDESPREAD FROST WOULD
ALSO BE LIKELY. THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON
MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS NO BETTER THAN THE MID 50S. TEMPS MON NIGHT
REMAIN CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S INLAND...TO LOW 40S AT
THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TUES AS AN UPPER TROUGH
SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. RETURN/SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S...WITH 60S
TO LOW 70S FOR NEXT WED/THU.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES HAS RESULTED IN
SKC CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SLY WINDS AOB 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL DROP INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATER THIS MORNING. INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 8 TO 12K FT AGL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT
REACHES THE LOCAL AREA.
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...PUSHING
OFFSHORE EARLY AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM BKN-OVC MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...SFC WINDS BACK TO THE NW BUT REMAIN AOB 10 KT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG THE FRONT. SKY RETURNS
TO SKC LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION BY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRY AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA ISSUED FOR THE BAY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM FRIDAY. RAP AND HRRR
SUPPORT THIS AND SW WINDS SHOULD MIX WELL WITH AIR TEMPERATURE ABOUT
SIX DEGREES COOLER THAN THE WATER. GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE BAY AS INDICATED BY RAP.
MODELS HAVE WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND THE
MRNG FORECASTER MIGHT BE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA AT 10 AM IF THIS IS
THE CASE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA NOW PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SW WINDS RAMP UP
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 15
KT. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. SW WINDS 10-15 KT CONTINUE INTO
EARLY FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW LEVEL CAA KICKS IN LATE FRI NIGHT AS STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...ANY SCA
CONDITIONS WOULD BE BRIEF AND MOSTLY LIKELY LIMITED TO THE CHES BAY
AND PERHAPS NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. WINDS ARE THEN SHOWN TO DIMINISH
A BIT ON SATURDAY BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT
AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES. NWLY WINDS GENERALLY 15
TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 4 TO 6 FT AND WAVES 3 TO 4 FT SAT NIGHT THRU SUN
NIGHT. THE HIGH FINALLY SETTLES OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...JDM/LSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
142 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO NY AND PA FRIDAY MORNING. A
SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A BIG DROP
IN TEMPERATURES, AND WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
AN AREA OF RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUES TO MARCH ACROSS OUR
AREA. THE FRONT ITSELF IS NOW OVER WESTERN NY. WE HAVE SEEN TWO
IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINES COMING OFF LAKE ERIE BUT THESE HAVE BOTH
FALLEN APART. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR OUR AREA WILL BE
ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN NOW MOVING INTO ELMIRA, CORTLAND
AND ITHACA. THIS AREA OF RAIN PRODUCED A GUST TO 40 MPH AT
SYRACUSE AND 42 MPH AT FINGER LAKES REGIONAL AIRPORT (JUST SOUTH
OF SENECA FALLS). I AM STILL EXPECTING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND
TO DIE OFF WITH EACH PASSING HOUR. SEE PREVIOUS AFD BELOW FOR
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. WITH THE HRRR AND LATEST
HI RESOLUTION MODELS STILL DOING WELL, INCREASE POPS FOR THE REST
OF NY TO 90%+ ALONG WITH THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA, WITH 60%+ DOWN
IN THE WYOMING VALLEY OF PA.
8 PM UPDATE... MADE BIG CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST,
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO 90%+ ACROSS NY STATE AND ABOVE 60%
IN PA. A COLD FRONT IS NOW JUST CROSSING LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN
LAKE ONTARIO. AHEAD AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING INTO OUR
AREA. GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER WESTERN NY,
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE ARE VERY LIKELY ESPECIALLY FROM
THE FINGER LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL NY, THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BASED ON
LIGHTNING OVER WESTERN NY AND THE SAME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOWING
UP ON HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INTO OUR AREA, ADDED CHANCE THUNDER
TO THE FORECAST FOR THE AREAS JUST MENTIONED. LIFTED INDICES IN
THESE AREAS ARE AROUND 0, OR ABOUT WHAT THEY ARE NOW IN BUFFALO
WHERE THEY ARE SEEING SOME LIGHTNING.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST RAIN WILL MAKE IT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND NORTHERN PA LATER TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY ALONG
THE NY/PA BORDER BUT THE MAGNITUDE WILL REALLY DROP OFF INTO
NEPA, WHICH IS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY DUE TO ABOVE
NORMAL LAKE TO 850MB LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER WITH STRONG DOWNWARD
MOTION BEHIND EXITING ENERGY, IT APPEARS THE SHOWERS WILL BE
MINIMAL AND MAINLY EAST/DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE SECONDARY SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS
TO BE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL OF THE SEASON. 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO -4C TO -6C LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, AND SOME OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS MAY CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
AS THE LAKE FLOW FALLS APART SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S,
INCLUDING OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND LACKAWANNA/LUZERNE COUNTIES
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE. A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 PM THURSDAY UPDATE... A DEEP EASTERN CANADIAN/NORTHEASTERN U.S.
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WILL LIFT OUT WITH TIME
THEREAFTER, AS HEIGHTS ALOFT SIGNIFICANTLY BUILD NEXT WEEK OVER
THE EASTERN U.S.
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO EARLY MONDAY, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NY, WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY, WITH SURFACE RIDGING COMING IN
FROM THE WEST.
OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, CLOSER TO A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY, IT WILL BE
DRY AND MILDER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S-LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN MILD, BUT OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAY
INCREASE BY LATER IN THE DAY, AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS NY AND PA THIS MORNING. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT... WINDS ARE STILL SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS... AND BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS ARE WESTERLY AROUND 12 KNOTS.
THIS FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH A LINE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS... AND
FOR THE MOST PART MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS VFR. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MVFR. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID
15Z. BEHIND THE FROPA IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE OVER KRME AND
KSYR... THUS INCLUDED SHRA IN THE TAFS. THE REMAINING SITES WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE A RAIN SHOWER FRIDAY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TO LOW ATTM TO PLACE IN TAFS.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS/MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED,
PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL NY, AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH, OR EVEN
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS.
MON-TUE...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS Tulsa OK
1143 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 6Z TAFS, Gusty northeasterly winds will affect all sites
overnight in the wake of a passing cold front. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms could temporarily affect Northeast Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas sites for the first portion of the forecast
period. VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to prevail at
all sites for the entire forecast period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Cold front is making steady progress to the south this evening and
will exit the area by midnight or shortly thereafter. A band of
showers and thunderstorms has developed behind the front near the
Oklahoma/Kansas border and the latest runs of the HRRR support
this activity continuing for the next few hours as it progresses
to the south and southeast. As such, have raised pops considerably
overnight across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The
showers and storms are still expected to weaken and dissipate
before reaching southeast Oklahoma so will maintain a dry forecast
there. The current low temperature forecast appears reasonable at
this time.
Update on the way.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
242 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE
THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
AND FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BRING AN END
TO THE GROWING SEASON. THE SEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS MOVING STEADILY BUT SLOWLY THROUGH THE NRN MTNS. FINE LINE
OF COOLER AIR/GUST FRONT MOVING THROUGH KDUJ/KPIT RIGHT NOW AND
MAY SIGNAL A LITTLE WEAKENING/FRACTURING IS POSSIBLE SOON. A
COUPLE OF LINES OF STORMS FIRED UP IN WRN NY AND THE CURRENT ONE
IS LESS THAN A COUNTY AWAY FROM THE PA BORDER. SUSPECT THIS LINE
IS THE REAL FRONT - WITH A DECENT WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT. SOME 50KT
WINDS WILL SNEAK INTO FAR NRN PA AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT THE
STABLE/COOL LAYER IN PLACE FROM THE CURRENT RAIN SHOULD HELP TO
MINIMIZE GUST POTENTIAL. GUSTS INTO THE 30S ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN
THE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER THOUGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING
THUNDER FOR NOW. BUT A STRAY RUMBLE IS POSSIBLE. HAVE BLENDED THE
GOING FCST WITH THE HRRR MDL RADAR PROGS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE PREV FCST AND PROVIDES SOME
SLIGHTLY REFINED TIMING/COVG. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK. CLOUDS HOLDING
OFF UNTIL JUST BEFORE THE PRECIP ARRIVES.
PREV...
BAND OF SHOWERS PARALLEL TO THE LOWER LAKES IS SLIDING TO THE ESE
ON SCHEDULE. THE RAIN IS NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY...BUT THE DYNAMICS
MUST BE PRETTY STRONG WITH LIGHTNING NOW OCCURRING IN ERIE. COULD
GUST INTO THE 30S IN ONE OF THE HEAVIER CELLS AS WINDS NOT TOO FAR
ALOFT ARE CLOSE TO 35KTS...AND INCREASE/LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CLOUD BAND STAYS RATHER COHERENT AS IT SLIPS TO THE SE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE DECREASES AND LITTLE MORE THAN
SPRINKLES SHOULD BE LEFT BY 2/3AM AS IT GETS INTO THE LOWER SUSQ.
SOME CLEARING MAY TRY TO TAKE PLACE AFTER THE MAIN BAND GOES BY
BUT THE CAA AFTERWARD WILL LIKELY CREATE ADDITIONAL/UPSLOPE CLOUDS
IN THE NW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA TRACKS COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
ADVECTION OF LOW PWAT AIR MASS IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
DRY FRIDAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WILL BE DIVING SE FROM THE GRT LKS LATE IN
THE DAY...LIKELY SPREADING SCT SHOWERS INTO THE NW COUNTIES BY
LATE AFTN. ANY QPF FROM THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS ARND 5C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE L50S OVR
THE NW MTNS...TO THE M60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COOL SHOWERY REGIME WILL PERSIST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP CANADIAN UPPER TROF TRACKS FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND EAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER
THE CHILLIEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR AND A WIDESPREAD CHC OF
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
LATER SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A LAKE
SUPERIOR/HURON CONNECTION SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF MORE SOMEWHAT
MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. AS
EARLIER NOTED...BLYR AND GROUND TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WARM
FOR ACCUMS UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A DUSTING
OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN OVERALL DETAILS TODAY AS COLD POOL CROSSES
THE STATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND A RETURN TO
NICE FALL WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS
ON THE COLD FOR SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH IS LIKELY TO END THE
GROWING SEASON FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA...AND ON TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF APPROACHING FRONT TOWARDS MIDWEEK OR BEYOND AS SFC HIGH
REMAINS LODGED ALONG AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WED/THU. INTRODUCED SLGT/CHC SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH LINGERS THU AND FRI AS SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGS
ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FREEZE SAT NIGHT...
STILL EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO OCCUR SUN NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND A LGT WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL BLW FREEZING OVR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM SFC LOW PRES MOVG
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL MOVE THRU THE AIRSPACE EARLY THIS
MORNING. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF -SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND
IMPACT THE NW 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE. HIRES MDL DATA SUGGESTS -SHRA
DO NOT REACH THE MDT/LNS VCNTY. SATL TRENDS SUGGEST POST FRONTAL
MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING. VFR FLYING EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN WITH
OCNL WIND GUSTS FROM 270-300 BTWN 15-20KTS. LAKE EFFECT -SHRA
SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NW 1/3 AFT 00Z WITH REDUCTIONS LKLY AT
BFD INTO TONIGHT. SOME -SHSN MAY MIX WITH -SHRA AFT MIDNIGHT. THE
COLD NW FLOW PATTERN WILL GRIP THE AREA THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT -SHRASN AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED OVER THE NW
1/3...WHILE LOW VFR CIGS RULE EAST OF THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MVFR CIGS/-SHRASN WRN TAFS. LOW VFR CIGS CNTRL/EAST.
WIND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.
MON-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KCCX RADAR IS DOWN UFN. ET IS ON SITE. PROBLEM APPEARS TO BE WITH
RDARTR LINK/CONNECTION FAILURE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CERU/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
EQUIPMENT...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1207 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING. KNQA
SHOWING A NICE FINE LINE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MEMPHIS METRO
ATTM. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL WORK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN AMOUNT OF COVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND LATEST HRRR DATA. EXPECT COVERAGE TO
DIMINISH AS THE SHOWERS HEAD SOUTH AND LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
WEAKENS. WINDS WILL START PICKING UP BEHIND THE FRONT...SPREADING
SOUTH BY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED UP
AND...ALONG WITH ANY CLOUDS...PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
BY MORNING. FORECAST LOW TEMPS IN THE 50S LOOKS GOOD. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.
SJM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES WERE RANGING FROM NEAR 80F ALONG THE LOWER
TENNESSEE RIVER...TO RECORD BREAKING LOW 90S FROM THE MEMPHIS
METRO DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES. WINDS WERE SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS.
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 30 PERCENT.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED CLOUDS
AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH...OTHERWISE A
VERY DRY AND COOL WEEKEND IS IN STORE. THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP NEARLY 20 DEGREES TOMORROW SO WILL DEWPOINTS. FROM THIS
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL RAISE MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WITH
POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI. NOT
MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BE A TAD
LIGHTER. THE BRUNT OF THE CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S.
FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EASTERN COUNTIES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING...BUT QUESTIONS
ARISE ON WHETHER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL HUG THE GROUND FOR FROST TO
EVEN FORM...SO MADE MENTION OF THE POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON
HWO. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE
SLIDING EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH DRY INITIALLY WITH A
SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE BY MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT DROPPING COLD
FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINOR HOWEVER AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH
LIFTS OUT AND THE SOUTHERN ENERGY IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER NW
MEXICO. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL WARM TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
EARLY WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY WEDNESDAY.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR JBR FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WARRANTING A VCSH THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK OVERNIGHT NEAR MEM AND JBR...WITH
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 16 KTS OR GREATER. LLWS IS BELOW CRITERIA
...BUT WILL REMAIN NEAR 25 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS AS WINDS AT 2000 FEET
ARE 35 KTS AS SEEN ON NQA VAD WIND PROFILER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN 12-16 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 25KTS AT ALL SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN AT THE SURFACE
LATE IN THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 6 KTS.
AC3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...NONE.
MS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-
PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
313 AM MST FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MULTIPLE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FIRST SYSTEMS PASS ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY AND
BEYOND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UNSETTLED WEATHER IN TERMS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A COUPLE OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION. THE FIRST SYSTEM WAS SPINNING
OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF IT PASSING THROUGH
ARIZONA. THIS FEATURE WAS HELPING TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE SOUTH THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL AND FAR
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR SOLUTION APPEARED
TO DEPICT THE AREAS OF SHOWERS VERY WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
AREAL COVERAGE INCREASING BY 22Z TODAY. BASED ON THIS...LOWERED POP
VALUES A BIT FOR THIS MORNING MOST AREAS AND SHOWED THE INCREASING
TREND FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC GUIDANCE SUPPORTED THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR TODAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWED THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEAKENING AND
BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE BY TONIGHT. MODELS LIFT THIS FEATURE NORTHEAST
IN RESPONSE TO A SECONDARY SYSTEM ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY. THE TAIL END WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT
INTO LATE SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. WILL
LIKELY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERY WEATHER ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE
SECOND SYSTEM STARTS TO IMPACT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM WAS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH INLAND AND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNA
BY EARLY TUESDAY BASED ON THE GFS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF SHOWED
SOMEWHAT OF A DIFFERENT IDEA IN TERMS OF THE SYSTEM EVOLUTION AND
TRACK. AT ANY RATE...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/12Z.
SCTD TO LCLY BKN 10-12KFT AGL WITH ISOLD -SHRA THRU 16/17Z...MAINLY
FROM KTUS E AND N. AFT 16/17Z...BKN 6-10KFT AGL WITH LYRS ABV. SCT
SHRA/ISOLD +TSRA DVLPG W-SW OF KTUS AND SPRDG TO ENE. LCL MVFR CONDS
VCNTY OF STRONG TSTORMS. SFC WINDS MAINLY FROM THE E-SE 5-15 KTS.
GUSTS ARND 45 KTS NR STRONG AFTN T-STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASED MOISTURE AND A PASSING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM THE TUCSON AREA EASTWARD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WELL. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HAIL. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
715 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. ANOTHER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS IT
CROSSES DOWNEAST MAINE AND MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
705 AM: WE NOTED THAT THE MAIN AREA OF RN OVR THE N IS MOVING OUT
2 TO 3 HRS SOONER THAN THE PREV FCST...SO WE WENT TO SHWRS FOR
LESS THAN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL OF THE REGION AFT ADVCG THE
TMG OF POPS BY 2 TO 3 HRS. HRRR SIM HRLY FCST REF INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL OF SHWRS FOR THE FA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT UNTIL ITS
PASSAGE FROM MIDDAY NW TO MID AFTN FAR SE. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THE AFTN HRS BASED ON TRENDS SEEN AT
6 AM OBSVD TEMPS.
ORGNL DISC: NO SIG CHGS TO FCST QPF AND POPS INTO THIS
AFTN...WITH RN MSLY ENDING ACROSS THE N BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES
FOR ANY TRANSITION TO SN SHWRS. HI TEMPS MAY OCCUR ARND MIDDAY TO
ERLY AFTN BEFORE DROPPING LATER THIS AFTN LONG BEFORE SUNSET WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF LLVL COLD ADVCN SW OF THE DEPARTING SFC THRU NRN
NEW BRUNSWICK.
SOME CLRG XPCTD THIS EVE WITHE FA BETWEEN SFC LOW PRES-S/WV ALF
SYSTEMS...THEN WE XPCT CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE LATER TNGT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT S/WV AND SFC LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS...WITH LGT SN
OR RN-SN MIX MOVING INTO W CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE SAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN ZONES ON SATURDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC TO
DOWN EAST MAINE AND ONWARD INTO NEW BRUNSWICK ON SATURDAY. SNOW
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE LOW`S TRACK WHILE RAIN WILL FALL ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE ALLAGASH TO AROUND 50F
FOR BANGOR AND THE COAST. AS ALWAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR....TIME OF
DAY AND ELEVATION WILL BE KEY TO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SINCE MOST OF
SNOW WILL FALL DURING THE DAY...THE COMBINATION OF WARM SURFACES
AND A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REDUCE ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE ALLAGASH AND KATAHDIN REGION COULD EASILY RECEIVE 3
INCHES OR MORE...BUT MORE POPULATED AREAS SUCH AS CARIBOU AND
PRESQUE ISLE WILL LIKELY RECEIVE JUST OVER AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS HOULTON...THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN
THE LOW MOVES EAST AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES. THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN A BAND FROM NORTHERN SOMERSET
COUNTY TOWARDS THE KATAHDIN REGION AND EAST TO MARS HILL. SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM MILLINOCKET TO FAR SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY...LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST.
COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ON SUNDAY WITH FLURRIES IN NORTHERN ZONES. SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEENS ARE
PROBABLE IN THE ALLAGASH WHILE LOW TO MID 20S ARE ANTICIPATED
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CRESTS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
40S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 20S MONDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS LATER
WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW LATE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL PROMPT A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO
ALL RAIN TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL PROBABLY CROSS
TOWARDS EVENING...BUT WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AND HAVE REDUCED POPS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FOR
THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIP
TOWARDS THE CROWN OF MAINE.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR DOWNEAST AND LOW MVFR/IFR NRN TAF SITES TDY IN
RN...THEN IMPROVING BACK TO VFR TNGT BEHIND ENDING RNFL.
SHORT TERM: IFR TO LIFR IN SNOW NORTH OF HUL DUE TO SNOW. EXPECT
MVFR IN SHOWERS SOUTH OF HUL. IT WILL BE VFR FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT SCA WITH WINDS AND WVS NOW
APCHG MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA. AFT PEAKING WITH 25 KT WIND GUSTS AND
MAX WV HTS OF UP TO 7 FT OVR THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTN AND EVE...
WINDS AND WVS SHOULD SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND RETURN TUESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
914 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE. AFTER A
COLD START WITH MANY READINGS IN THE 20S...MIXING WILL BE LIMITED
TO AROUND 800 MB TODAY BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS AND LOW-LEVEL E
FLOW. KBIL WILL LIKELY END UP WITH CLARKS FORK DRAINAGE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A MORE SSW WIND DIRECTION. IN ADDITION TO THE POOR
MIXING...HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES. KGGW 12Z RAOB SHOWED A MOISTURE LAYER AT 400 MB.
USING THE GFS...THIS MOISTURE WAS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POOR MIXING WILL LIMIT
TEMPERATURE RISES SOMEWHAT...SO HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. ALSO MORNING DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH HEADWAY BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS. HAVE LOWERED THESE AS WELL.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SUNNY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SAT. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
A TRANQUIL NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE IN STORE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH CALM TO VERY LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR
FAR EAST WITH 30S ELSEWHERE RESULTING IN THE FIRST FROST AND
FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A LIGHT EASTERLY OR
VARIABLE WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE DAKOTA
BORDERS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.
HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF A
SUNDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH MIXING AIDED BY HEIGHT
FALLS AND A SHIFT TO W-NW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
ADJUSTED FORECAST HIGHS UP A LITTLE MORE. DAILY RECORDS ON THE
18TH ARE IN THE LOWER 80S AND SHOULD NOT BE REACHED...BUT WE WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN OUR WEST
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN INITIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE KICKS
THROUGH THE REGION...ALTHOUGH MAIN TROF WILL STILL BE TO OUR
WEST. THIS TROF WILL SLIDE EAST AND BRING US A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ASCENT LOOKS TO BE STRONGEST LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FORMS AND
COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH 700MB OVER OUR
WEST. THOUGH NOT OVERLY DYNAMIC...THIS TROF WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
HIGH PWATS SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
WEST HALF. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THIS WILL BE A RATHER WARM
SYSTEM FOR MID OCTOBER WITH 700MB TEMPS STAYING ABOVE ZERO UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT. SO LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO RAIN/SNOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 8-9KFT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN RAIN
OF COURSE. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO THE 60S MONDAY AND MID 50S TO
NEAR 60F TUESDAY.
HEIGHTS WILL REBUILD AND WE SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COURTESY OF RIDGING ALOFT.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS HERE. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS CREEP BACK
TOWARD 70F BY THURSDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER/WETTER
SYSTEM TO COME OFF THE PACIFIC BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN ANY SPECIFICS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. JKL/RMS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 041/072 049/076 048/063 045/058 039/063 044/068
0/B 00/U 01/E 23/W 43/W 11/U 11/B
LVM 070 039/078 048/072 044/060 040/055 037/063 040/068
0/U 00/U 03/W 45/W 53/W 11/B 11/B
HDN 064 038/074 042/079 045/066 043/060 037/065 040/071
0/B 00/U 00/B 23/W 43/W 11/U 01/B
MLS 060 035/069 040/077 045/065 045/060 039/061 043/070
0/B 00/U 00/B 11/B 33/W 21/U 01/B
4BQ 065 036/069 044/078 045/066 045/059 038/061 042/070
0/B 00/U 00/B 11/B 33/W 21/U 01/B
BHK 057 032/064 038/075 044/064 043/058 038/059 041/066
0/B 00/U 00/B 01/B 33/W 21/U 01/B
SHR 066 038/075 043/078 043/067 042/058 037/062 038/069
0/B 00/U 01/B 23/W 43/W 11/U 01/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
323 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...BACK TO BACK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING. OTHERWISE EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE FOR TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
BACK TO BACK STORM SYSTEMS WILL MAKE THINGS INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IF YOU HAVE
PLANS TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IS THAT IT WILL NOT RAIN AT ALL
TIMES BUT SPECIFIC TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL RAIN AND WILL BE DRY IS
VERY TOUGH MORE THAN A FEW HOURS OUT IN THIS SORT OF PATTERN. SO,
PLEASE KEEP UPDATED WITH THE WEATHER AS CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE
RAPIDLY.
AN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED ON WATER VAPOR OVER SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY, CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THOUGH WAS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER
EXTENDING FROM DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK SOUTHEAST TOWARD IRON
MOUNTAIN, CALIFORNIA. ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS BAND WAS MOVING NORTH AND
MOST OF IT WAS LIGHT WITH ONLY EMBEDDED POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST LOCAL ARW AND NMM MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HRRR AND 00Z OPERATIONAL WRF, ECMWF AND GFS BASICALLY
KEEP MOST OF THEIR QPF THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING OVER THESE SAME
AREAS AND ONLY MOVE IT GRADUALLY FURTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
POPS WERE TWEAKED UP FOR THESE AREAS. ONCE AGAIN IT APPEARS ACTIVITY
IN LAS VEGAS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
CURRENTLY OUT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PARTS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
(THE NW AND MORONGO BASIN) WILL SEE IT EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING
AS THE THREAT FOR STORMS STARTS TO DECREASE IN THESE AREAS THEN.
THIS WILL BE A LOCALIZED THREAT THAT EXISTS MAINLY IN ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT CAN QUICKLY UNLOAD OR AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING STORMS.
HIGH TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND GIVEN THE WARM START TO THE DAY ALREADY.
AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW STARTS TO GET CAUGHT
UP IN A BROADER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE LOW STARTS TO GET
STRETCHED OUT INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND BECOME AN ELONGATED PIECE OF
ENERGY THAT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST. WE MAY SEE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS ENERGY MOVES RIGHT OVER US AND LARGER SCALE
FORCING IS GREATER. BEHIND THIS FIRST SYSTEM DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN
AND BRING AN END TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL NOT CLEAR OUT ENTIRELY IN THESE
SPOTS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME SORT OF BREAK IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS THOUGH
IT MAY NOT BE ALL THAT WELL DEFINED OR LAST LONG FURTHER EAST AND
NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. HOWEVER, THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SLATED TO DROP SOUTH
INTO NORCAL LATE SATURDAY AND SWING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW GOOD SIGNS POINTING TO A DECENT
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. LOTS OF VORTICITY IS SHOWN TO WORK THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND A 50 KT+ JET STREAK AT 250 MB MOVES OVERHEAD.
BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME HEAVIER QPF
AMOUNTS WITH A BAND WORKING NORTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. AS A RESULT, THE THOUGHT IS THIS MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING THAN WITH WHAT WE SEE TODAY OR SATURDAY
AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH KEEPS ON GOING THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COULD HOLD
DOWN READINGS EVEN MORE THAN WHAT IS FORECAST.
POINTS TO STRESS...
+ ROADS WILL BE SLICK. SLOW DOWN AND PLAN AHEAD FOR TRAVEL.
+ FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS OR TRAINING
ACTIVITY. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD QUICKLY EXCEED AN INCH IN AN HOUR
OR LESS.
+ PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL VARY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF A TENTH TO A HALF
OF AN INCH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH.
+ SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 11,000 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES
POSSIBLE.
+ ANOTHER THIRD TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
BE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. LOCALIZED TOTALS
AGAIN COULD EXCEED AN INCH.
+ HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES
NOW DEPICTING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING DOWN BACKSIDE OF
TROUGH WHICH WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT, THE ECMWF ALONG WITH NUMEROUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEVELOP A
CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOHAVE COUNTY TUESDAY. LEFT WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW
BUT DEPENDING ON UPPER LOW PLACEMENT WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY.
A TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL KICK THE LOW
EASTWARD OUT OF ARIZONA THURSDAY. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA/NEVADA FRIDAY-SATURDAY,
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD TURN OUT
WETTER AND COOLER WHILE THE GFS WOULD BE DRY AND WINDY. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY LEFT LATE NEXT WEEK ALONE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT WILL DROP CIGS TO AROUND 5-6K FEET AND
POTENTIALLY LOWER VSBYS TO 5SM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 8 KTS OR LESS BUT WILL GUST TO AROUND
20-25 KTS IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH CIGS/VSBY REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER AS
WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS INYO, NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NYE, WESTERN CLARK AND CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTIES. CIGS WILL
MAINLY BE 6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA OTHERWISE 10K-14K FEET.
VSBY MAY BE REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO TREND
TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 10 KTS OR LESS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY WITH CIGS/VSBY REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER AS WELL AS
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR
LAS VEGAS TODAY AND SATURDAY.
DATE VALUE/YEAR
-----------------------------
10/16 66/2010*
10/17 67/1991
* TIE FROM PREVIOUS YEARS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PHOENIX AZ
226 PM MST FRI OCT 16 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION...FIRE WEATHER...AND
WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. AFTER A BIT OF A BREAK ON MONDAY...A
SECOND PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH A DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 110 PM MST 16 OCTOBER 2015/...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS
ARE NOW SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN AND EXTREME SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AS THE UPPER LOW THAT
BROUGHT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN
CA BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CA. THE LATEST HRRR AND 4KM
NAM HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEING TRIGGERED BY A JET MAX/SHORTWAVE THAT
CAN BE SEEN ON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
SW...AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROF. AS FAR AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING/SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...THE
LATEST SPC SREF FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ONLY RISING INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE THIS EVENING...WITH MUCAPES
VALUES REMAINING IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT
CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE MORE
OF A THREAT...WITH PWATS IN THE 1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE...WHICH IS 2-4
SD ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY RAPID STORM
MOTION SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST CASES...TRAINING OF
STORMS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
COLUMN...WHICH COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS AREN`T QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS
THAT ARE WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR MID OCTOBER. MUCH LIKE TODAY...IT
WOULD APPEAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN
SATURDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL ALREADY BE
UNDERWAY BY THIS POINT AND AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN
FRIDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED. ON SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA...WITH RAINFALL
CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. AFTER A DRY DRY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROF PASSES OFF WELL TO OUR NORTH...THERE IS GROWING
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITES...AND MANY OF THEIR
RESPECTIVE MEMBERS...THAT A RATHER DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SW. ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE VALUES
WILL BE LESS THEN HAT WE ARE SEEING WITH THE CURRENT LOW CENTER THIS
IS AFFECTING OUR REGION...MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT (500MB TEMPS IN THE
-16 TO -18C RANGE) AND STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOULD
PROVIDE GREATER LIFT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS AND COOL TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 80
RANGE BY WEDNESDAY. NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE
SOMEWHAT WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND
KSDL...
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER WITH 8-10K FT CIGS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS 20 TO 25
KTS AND POSSIBLE LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBITLITY FROM BLOWING DUST.
LOCATIONS AROUND PHOENIX AND EASTWARD WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH ABOUT
04Z BEFORE GREATLY IMPROVING. HAVE KEPT VSTS FOR ALL PHOENIX TAF
SITES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS ARIZONA WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR KBLH. CIGS AROUND 10K FT WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING HIGHER THIS EVENING. EXPECTING
WINDS TO REMAIN MOSTLY CALM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER... MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE DISTRICT. LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES IN A 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL ONLY
DECREASE TO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT. A FEW STRONGER
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NOT A FIRE WEATHER IMPACT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...DUST STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AZZ023-028.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS
AVIATION...DEWEY
FIRE WEATHER...DEWEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
110 PM MST FRI OCT 16 2015
&&
.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. AFTER A BIT OF A BREAK ON MONDAY...A
SECOND PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH A DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS
ARE NOW SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN AND EXTREME SOUTHERN ARIZONA...AS THE UPPER LOW THAT
BROUGHT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN
CA BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CA. THE LATEST HRRR AND 4KM
NAM HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEING TRIGGERED BY A JET MAX/SHORTWAVE THAT
CAN BE SEEN ON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
SW...AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROF. AS FAR AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING/SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...THE
LATEST SPC SREF FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
ONLY RISING INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE THIS EVENING...WITH MUCAPES
VALUES REMAINING IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT
CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE MORE
OF A THREAT...WITH PWATS IN THE 1.00-1.50 INCH RANGE...WHICH IS 2-4
SD ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY RAPID STORM
MOTION SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN MOST CASES...TRAINING OF
STORMS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
COLUMN...WHICH COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS AREN`T QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY BUT STILL IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS
THAT ARE WELL ABOVE CLIMO FOR MID OCTOBER. MUCH LIKE TODAY...IT
WOULD APPEAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN
SATURDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL ALREADY BE
UNDERWAY BY THIS POINT AND AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN
FRIDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED. ON SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA...WITH RAINFALL
CHANCES ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. AFTER A DRY DRY ON MONDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROF PASSES OFF WELL TO OUR NORTH...THERE IS GROWING
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITES...AND MANY OF THEIR
RESPECTIVE MEMBERS...THAT A RATHER DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SW. ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE VALUES
WILL BE LESS THEN HAT WE ARE SEEING WITH THE CURRENT LOW CENTER THIS
IS AFFECTING OUR REGION...MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT (500MB TEMPS IN THE
-16 TO -18C RANGE) AND STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN SHOULD
PROVIDE GREATER LIFT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THUS...HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS AND COOL TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID 80
RANGE BY WEDNESDAY. NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE
SOMEWHAT WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
PERIODIC MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH 10-
12K FT CIGS DEVELOPING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES PICK BACK UP
AROUND 18Z WITH BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND OCCURRING MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
EASTWARD. SFC WINDS TO MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND COULD BECOME GUSTY FROM STORM OUTFLOWS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
RAIN CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY WITH ONLY LIMITED CHANCES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. HAVE KEPT
VCSH AT KBLH...BUT FEEL CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS AT KIPL. CIGS AROUND 10K FT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING HIGHER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH AT KBLH...BUT EXPECTING WINDS TO SLACKEN
OFF QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE DISTRICT.
LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IN A 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE EARLY
IN THE WEEK WILL ONLY DECREASE TO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT. A FEW STRONGER NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NOT A FIRE
WEATHER IMPACT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/LEINS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
135 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD CREATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY. A DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL
CONTINUE...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS FILLING THE COASTAL
BASIN...AND DRIZZLE OCCURRING AT TIMES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
A SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR SATELLITE. THE 12Z MIRAMAR
SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH
1.4 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 1336 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE. IT ALSO SHOWS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KT BETWEEN 850 AND
550 MB...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KT ABOVE THAT LEVEL.
MEANWHILE...YESTERDAY THE WINDS WERE SOUTHERLY THROUGH MOST OF THE
LAYER AT 20-40 KT. THUS...IT IS APPARENT THAT THE WINDS ALOFT ARE A
BIT WEAKER TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY
AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE
SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES. THE HRRR AND MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH DESERTS DUE TO DAY-TIME HEATING INDUCED INSTABILITY WHICH
SHOULD OCCUR...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS OVER THOSE AREAS. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS PAINTS 1000
J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...AND THE HRRR SHOWS
STORMS ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE INLAND EMPIRE LATE IN THE DAY. WITH
THE WEAKER WINDS ALOFT...SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
BE SOMEWHAT SLOW MOVING...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.
MEANWHILE...A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND THE NEARBY TROUGH HAS CONTINUED
TO BRING BRING AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO THE COASTS AND VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MANY STATIONS REPORTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...TO AS MUCH AS A TENTH OF AN INCH. LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A SOLID STRATUS DECK...WITH ANY FURTHER
CLEARING UNLIKELY. THUS...PATCHY TO MORE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE WINDS ALOFT TURN
WESTERLY. THERE SHOULD BE DRYING AND CLEARING OF SKIES AS WELL
SATURDAY...BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND THE AREA COULD BRING
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
ON SUNDAY...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...AND COULD BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS OVER AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE MOMENT. THE TROUGH WILL BRING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA AND MAINTAIN A DEEP MARINE LAYER...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS ARE LIKELY AS WELL.
THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN SHOW ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY...WITH THE SHORT-WAVE SPLITTING
OUT OF THE JET-STREAM AND FORMING A CUT-OFF LOW ON TUESDAY. THE 12Z
GFS BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH WRAP-AROUND
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WITH THE
LOW...BRINGING THE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BUT STILL KEEPING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DRY.
NEVERTHELESS...IT APPEARS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS THE GFS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON
THAT...AND WITH THE LOW NEARBY...OR POSSIBLY DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION...THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED COOLER FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK...THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING.
&&
.AVIATION...
162015Z...COAST/VALLEYS...WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH BASES 1500-2200 FT
MSL AND TOPS TO 4000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL BASIN
THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA REMAINS FOR THE
INLAND EMPIRE TODAY IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS...CHANCES ENDING THIS
EVENING. STRATUS FILLING BACK IN WEST OF THE MTNS BEGINNING EARLY TO
MID EVENING WITH SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH BASES NEAR 8000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL. LOCAL VIS 2-
4SM AND SFC GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
115 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND THE
INLAND EMPIRE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS...WITH
SOME STORMS DRIFTING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS AND THE INLAND EMPIRE.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...RESULTING IN POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
SAN BERNARDINO...RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLE AND
LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR
BANNING.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
941 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING. HIGH MOISTURE
AND DAY-TIME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD CREATE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...MAINLY OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A DEEP MARINE LAYER
WILL CONTINUE...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS FILLING THE COASTAL
BASIN...WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. DRY AND WARMER FOR THE MIDDLE
TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ACCORDING
TO WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING NORTH
OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...AND A WEAKER WAVE ROTATING TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR POINT CONCEPTION. THE FIRST WAVE IS RESULTING IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA...WITH SHOWERS MOVING NORTH AT AROUND 25
MPH...WHEREAS THEY WERE MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH YESTERDAY. THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH 1.4 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 1336 J/KG OF
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. IT ALSO SHOWS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-
25 KT BETWEEN 850 AND 550 MB...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KT
ABOVE THAT LEVEL. MEANWHILE...YESTERDAY THE WINDS WERE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MOST OF THE LAYER AT 20-40 KT. THUS...IT IS APPARENT THAT
THE WINDS ALOFT ARE A BIT WEAKER TODAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING
WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE NORTHERN
AREA. THIS AFTERNOON...THE HRRR AND MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
DESERTS DUE TO DAY-TIME HEATING INDUCED INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD
OCCUR WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
MOVE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...AND THE HRRR SHOWS STORMS
ALSO DEVELOPING IN THE INLAND EMPIRE LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY...IT SHOULD STILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG.
WITH THE WEAKER WINDS ALOFT...SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO BE SOMEWHAT SLOW MOVING...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
MEANWHILE...A DEEP MARINE LAYER AND THE NEARBY TROUGH HAS BEEN
BRINGING AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS THIS
MORNING...WITH MANY STATIONS REPORTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...TO AS MUCH AS A TENTH OF AN INCH. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY BE PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE MARINE LAYER
STRATUS TODAY...IT WILL REMAIN DEEP AND COME BACK IN TONIGHT AND
COVER THE COASTAL BASIN AGAIN. DAY-TIME HIGHS TODAY LOOK BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY...AT AROUND NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALTHOUGH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AROUND
THE AREA WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE WINDS ALOFT TURN
WESTERLY. THERE SHOULD BE DRYING AND CLEARING OF SKIES AS WELL
SATURDAY...BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND THE AREA COULD BRING
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
ON SUNDAY...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...AND COULD BRING SHOWERS TO AREAS OVER AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE MOMENT. THE TROUGH WILL BRING STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA AND MAINTAIN A DEEP MARINE LAYER...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS ARE LIKELY AS WELL.
THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN SHOW ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY...WITH THE TROUGH SPLITTING OUT
OF THE JET-STREAM AND FORMING A CUT-OFF LOW ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES WITH WHERE THE MODELS PLACE THE
LOW...AS THE 12Z GFS BRINGS IT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION OCCURRING LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODEL KEEP THE LOW OVER
ARIZONA RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA. THERE COULD STILL
BE SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT MODELS ARE
BACKING OFF ON THIS SOMEWHAT. FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...THE LOW LOOKS
TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...
161530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN STRATUS WITH BASES 1500-2200 FT
MSL AND TOPS TO 4000 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL BASIN
THIS MORNING WITH SLOW PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED 18Z-21Z. HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA IN THE INLAND EMPIRE TODAY...ENDING THIS EVENING. STRATUS
FILLING BACK IN WEST OF THE MTNS BEGINNING EARLY TO MID EVENING WITH
SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS.
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TODAY WITH BASES NEAR 8000
FT MSL AND TOPS TO 40000 FT MSL. LOCAL VIS 2-4SM AND SFC GUSTS TO 35
KT POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
830 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE SAN DIEGO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND ALSO THE INLAND EMPIRE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH DESERTS...WITH SOME STORMS DRIFTING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
AND THE INLAND EMPIRE. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER
HOUR...RESULTING IN POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR SAN
BERNARDINO...RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO
AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO
COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS
NEAR BANNING.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL. FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MTNS AND AV YESTERDAY HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE AND
BECAUSE OF THIS THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TODAY.
STEERING FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15 KT OR LESS
CAPES THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE, AND PWATS ARE
STILL AROUND 1.4". SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CERTAINLY JUSTIFIED
AND IN FACT IT WOULD BE SURPRISING TO NOT SEE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND AT
LEAST SOME FLASH FLOODING SOMEWHERE IN THE MTNS AND/OR AV TODAY
GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS. WILL BE INCREASING POPS FOR THE MTNS AND AV
TODAY TO EITHER HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORIES.
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A DEEP MARINE LYR BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500`
FILLED IN NICELY BUT SHOULD CLEAR TO NEAR THE COAST BY AFTERNOON AS
WE HAVE A 2 MB OFFSHORE TREND IN THE GRADIENTS. BASIN PROFILERS SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE OR SLIGHT COOLING OF TEMPS UP TO 5000` AND OVERALL
HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT CLOUDS
SHOULD FILL IN ALL COAST/VALLEYS AGAIN WITH HIGHS SATURDAY SIMILAR
TODAY.
SATURDAY SHOWS SIMILAR CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AS TODAY BUT MISSING A
LOT OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THAT WE HAVE TODAY AND HAD
YESTERDAY. SO WHILE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS THEY
SHOULDN`T BE AS STRONG OR WIDESPREAD. ALSO THE STEERING FLOW
SATURDAY, WHILE STILL MOSTLY UNDER 15KT, SHIFTS TO THE WEST.
ON SUNDAY A WEAK COLD FRON WILL WASH OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TAKES A MORE OVER LAND TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER,
IT WILL MOISTEN UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MOST AREAS WILL HAVE AT
LEAST SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS THE
UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SLOPE SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
SRN SBA COUNTY EXPECTED TO SEE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS, POSSIBLY CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENINGS.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT
DECENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY...THEN DEVELOP INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY...THEN MEANDER EASTWARD INTO
ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY THEN
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FORECAST-WISE...THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS DOES HAVE THE TROUGH/UPPER LOW FURTHER WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT THAN THE ECMWF WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THIS TIME...WILL SKEW FORECAST
TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AND KEEP POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS.
MORE SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
OFFSHORE WINDS AS WELL AS WARM/DRY CONDITIONS. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS. BY TUESDAY MORNING...THE
FLOW WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DECENT LOW LEVEL WIND SUPPORT...WITH
THE BEST SUPPORT (950 MB WINDS 15-25 KT...850 MB WINDS 20-30 KT) ON
WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ON THESE MODELS IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW THINGS DEVELOP WHEN NEXT WEEK FALLS INTO THE HIGH-RES MODEL
WINDOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FORECASTED STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENT AND
DECENT UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL SANTA ANA WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
AS FOR THE WARM AND DRY POTENTIAL...WITH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY LIKELY
THE WARMEST DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH WILL
CONSPIRE TO BRING A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER RISK TO THE AREA...AND
POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF VENTURA AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...16/12Z.
AT 11Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS ABOUT 500 FEET DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 2500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 18 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
OVERALL... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
AT COASTAL AND ADJACENT VALLEY SITES WILL CLEAR 16Z-18Z THEN
REDEVELOP AFTER 05Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY 22Z-04Z. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
KLAX... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CLEAR 16Z-18Z THEN REDEVELOP AFTER 05Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
KBUR... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CLEAR 16Z-17Z THEN REDEVELOP AFTER 05Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...16/900 AM...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LOW GRADE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT NORTH OF SAN NICOLAS ISLAND BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WITH WINDS TO AROUND 30 KT
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS COULD IMPACT THE WESTERN SBA
CHANNEL AS WELL. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE CHOPPY SEAS NORTH OF
SAN ONOFRE...INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/RAT
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...RK
SYNOPSIS...RAT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
922 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
Cooling with a chance of a few showers over the Sierra Nevada
today. Cloudy with showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms
Saturday most of northern California with below normal
temperatures. Showers shifting eastward Sunday. Dry with return to
above normal temperatures Monday through mid week.
&&
.Discussion
Still looking like some showers are in store for the area today
and tomorrow. Current radar showing some returns still in portions
of western Stanislaus county and also some weak returns in the
Sierra. NAM and HRRR both showing a fair amount of showers
developing this afternoon in Sierra and have raised up pops for
this. System tomorrow still on track as well and looks like there
should be some showers with the most organized activity coming
through in the afternoon in the northern Sacramento Valley. This
scenario covered well in grids but will prepare some additional
content to better communicate the timing of this activity later
this morning. Rasch
.Previous Discussion
An upper level low continues to spin over
the central California coast and has moved little over the last 24
hours. A disturbance rotating around this low may bring a few
light showers to the far southern CWA in but this disturbance
should rotate out of the area by sunrise. A low pressure area in
the Gulf of Alaska will help to start pushing the low inland
today. Southeast flow aloft and instability will bring a threat of
showers or thunderstorms to the Sierra this afternoon. The upper
low is forecast to push into the Pacific Northwest and northern
California on Saturday bringing a chance of precipitation to most
of the north state. Cape progs from both the NAM and GFS show
enough instability for a threat of thunderstorms on Saturday as
well so have expanded slight thunderstorm threat to all areas. The
overall airmass cools significantly on Saturday and combined with
cloud cover should actually bring down daytime highs to below
normal. Overall QPF is not all that large but TPW feeding into
this system progged at over an inch so some thunderstorms could
contain heavier rainfall. Precipitation threat shifts eastward on
Sunday as the upper trough axis shifts to over the Sierra. Cooler
air digging into the back side of the low will make Sunday an even
cooler day than Saturday. Upper ridging begins building in on
Monday for warmer temperatures with highs for the day expected to
climb back up closer to or a little above normal. Northerly flow
aloft and a fairly tight northerly surface gradient (8-10 mb from
MFR to SAC) will bring breezy north winds on Monday.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
The extended forecast looks like a period of change. Tuesday
may be the warmest day of the week, with high pressure rebuilding
over the area bringing above normal temperatures and dry weather.
North winds are looking increasingly breezy through Tuesday, and
there is some potential that they could reach Wind Advisory
levels. This along with low humidity could bring elevated fire
weather concerns for some areas, such as the western side of the
Valley and into Lake County during the day, spreading to northeast
winds into the Sierra Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
High pressure ridging weakens a little on Wednesday, with slightly
lower temperatures and lighter northerly winds. An approaching
Pacific shortwave trough is now looking a little slower, spreading
inland Thursday and Thursday night. A stronger and potentially
wetter system follows close behind, but models are unclear about
the details of this system. The European model has made a
significant change with the latest run, bringing a deeper digging
trough through California Friday and Saturday. The GFS model is
more consistent with previous runs, showing a system passing
further north through Northern California late Friday. Have
blended these latest runs, introducing a slight chance of rain
showers Friday and Saturday, mainly in the mountains. Will have
to watch this system to see how it evolves for a better idea of
where and when there could be some precipitation. At this point,
it doesn`t look very wet. It does look like it will bring some
weekend temperatures cooling to more normal levels. EK
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions today for TAF sites, though a few sprinkles
of light showers are possible through 12z in the northern San
Joaquin Valley. Some showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms
are possible over the northern Sierra and southern Cascades.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
550 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A HARD FREEZE LIKELY
FOR MANY AREAS. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN STARTING MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
COOL BRISK AFTERNOON ONGOING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. CU HAS DEVELOPED DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF INDIANA...WITH THE FRINGES
SNEAKING INTO FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY FROM
THE CHILLY START...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS OF
18Z.
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-
FREEZING OR SUBFREEZING TEMPS LATE TONIGHT...AND ANY IMPACT FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN INDUCED CU/STRATOCU.
COLD DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BULK
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGH CENTER LIKELY TO NOT DETER WIDESPREAD FROST
ACCRUAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COMBINATION OF A WAVE ALOFT REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKES
WILL KEEP SOME FORM OF LOWER CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN
INDIANA AND POSSIBLY WORKING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE 925-850MB LAYER INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE INDY
METRO...AND THE RAP IS STARTING TO HINT AT THIS TOWARD DAWN AS WELL.
EVEN WITH BROKEN CLOUDS DRIFTING INTO NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE...
THOSE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ENOUGH TIME WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING THAT TEMPS SHOULD STILL MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE
FREEZING MARK...WITH POTENTIAL TO GO LOWER IF LESS CLOUDS DEVELOP
THAN CURRENTLY THINKING. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE CHOSEN TO UPGRADE
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO A FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT. NOT EVERYONE
IS GOING TO GET TO 32 OR LOWER...BUT STILL FEEL A WIDESPREAD FROST
IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS...LEANED TOWARDS LOW END OF MOS AND EVEN UNDERCUT IT BY A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...TEMP RESPONSE HAS OUTPACED MOS GUIDANCE ON BOTH
HIGHS AND LOWS THE LAST FEW DAYS. EVEN WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
CLOUDS LATE...THINK UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL BE COMMON FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE GROWING SEASON TO COME TO AN OFFICIAL END EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
ON WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED CU/STRATOCU MAY BE A BIT
MORE PREVALENT ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUNDINGS/RH PROGS SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE 925-
850MB LAYER. ANY CU WILL DISSIPATE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
SATURDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE
REGION.
WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA AND THE 850MB COLD POOL NEARBY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCE AT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE OVER THE
AREA WILL EXIST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY FOR NOW...BUT HAVE NO DOUBT THAT THIS WILL BE
UPGRADED TO A WARNING EITHER TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS ON MONDAY. TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AND PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY
BETWEEN THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPS...GOING ALONG WITH TEMP BEHAVIOR LAST FEW DAYS...LEANED
TOWARDS FAR ENDS OF THE GUIDANCE ON BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. UNDERCUT MOS MOST EVERYWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MANY
AREAS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE UNDER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S BY MONDAY AND SOME AREAS IN THE WABASH VALLEY COULD
MAKE A RUN AT 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. SOLUTION SPREAD INCREASES BY MID WEEK WITH
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ACCEPTED INITIALIZATION
WITH ONLY QUALITY CONTROL ADJUSTMENTS RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TAPERING TO DRY SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 170000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 550 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP TO BELOW 10 KNOTS BY ISSUANCE TIME AND
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM LATE EVENING. THE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND
10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTER 15Z...BUT MORE RELAXED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DISCOURAGE GUSTS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A HARD FREEZE LIKELY
FOR MANY AREAS. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN STARTING MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
COOL BRISK AFTERNOON ONGOING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. CU HAS DEVELOPED DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF INDIANA...WITH THE FRINGES
SNEAKING INTO FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY FROM
THE CHILLY START...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS OF
18Z.
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-
FREEZING OR SUBFREEZING TEMPS LATE TONIGHT...AND ANY IMPACT FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN INDUCED CU/STRATOCU.
COLD DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BULK
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGH CENTER LIKELY TO NOT DETER WIDESPREAD FROST
ACCRUAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COMBINATION OF A WAVE ALOFT REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKES
WILL KEEP SOME FORM OF LOWER CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN
INDIANA AND POSSIBLY WORKING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE 925-850MB LAYER INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE INDY
METRO...AND THE RAP IS STARTING TO HINT AT THIS TOWARD DAWN AS WELL.
EVEN WITH BROKEN CLOUDS DRIFTING INTO NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE...
THOSE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ENOUGH TIME WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING THAT TEMPS SHOULD STILL MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE
FREEZING MARK...WITH POTENTIAL TO GO LOWER IF LESS CLOUDS DEVELOP
THAN CURRENTLY THINKING. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE CHOSEN TO UPGRADE
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO A FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT. NOT EVERYONE
IS GOING TO GET TO 32 OR LOWER...BUT STILL FEEL A WIDESPREAD FROST
IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS...LEANED TOWARDS LOW END OF MOS AND EVEN UNDERCUT IT BY A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...TEMP RESPONSE HAS OUTPACED MOS GUIDANCE ON BOTH
HIGHS AND LOWS THE LAST FEW DAYS. EVEN WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
CLOUDS LATE...THINK UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL BE COMMON FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE GROWING SEASON TO COME TO AN OFFICIAL END EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
ON WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED CU/STRATOCU MAY BE A BIT
MORE PREVALENT ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUNDINGS/RH PROGS SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE 925-
850MB LAYER. ANY CU WILL DISSIPATE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
SATURDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE
REGION.
WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA AND THE 850MB COLD POOL NEARBY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCE AT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE OVER THE
AREA WILL EXIST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY FOR NOW...BUT HAVE NO DOUBT THAT THIS WILL BE
UPGRADED TO A WARNING EITHER TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS ON MONDAY. TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AND PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY
BETWEEN THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPS...GOING ALONG WITH TEMP BEHAVIOR LAST FEW DAYS...LEANED
TOWARDS FAR ENDS OF THE GUIDANCE ON BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. UNDERCUT MOS MOST EVERYWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MANY
AREAS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE UNDER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S BY MONDAY AND SOME AREAS IN THE WABASH VALLEY COULD
MAKE A RUN AT 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. SOLUTION SPREAD INCREASES BY MID WEEK WITH
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ACCEPTED INITIALIZATION
WITH ONLY QUALITY CONTROL ADJUSTMENTS RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TAPERING TO DRY SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 162100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE FEW TO SCATTERED CU SNEAK INTO
KLAF AND KIND THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 3-4 KFT BUT NOT EXPECTING A
CEILING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22
KTS SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY IF NOT ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE SITES
AND THEN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 23Z. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 3-5 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY
EXPECT TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP BY MID MORNING TO AROUND 9-12 KTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
306 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A HARD FREEZE LIKELY
FOR MANY AREAS. WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN STARTING MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
COOL BRISK AFTERNOON ONGOING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. CU HAS DEVELOPED DOWNWIND OF LAKE
MICHIGAN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF INDIANA...WITH THE FRINGES
SNEAKING INTO FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY FROM
THE CHILLY START...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS OF
18Z.
THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-
FREEZING OR SUBFREEZING TEMPS LATE TONIGHT...AND ANY IMPACT FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN INDUCED CU/STRATOCU.
COLD DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BULK
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGH CENTER LIKELY TO NOT DETER WIDESPREAD FROST
ACCRUAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COMBINATION OF A WAVE ALOFT REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKES
WILL KEEP SOME FORM OF LOWER CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN
INDIANA AND POSSIBLY WORKING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE 925-850MB LAYER INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE INDY
METRO...AND THE RAP IS STARTING TO HINT AT THIS TOWARD DAWN AS WELL.
EVEN WITH BROKEN CLOUDS DRIFTING INTO NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE...
THOSE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ENOUGH TIME WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING THAT TEMPS SHOULD STILL MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE
FREEZING MARK...WITH POTENTIAL TO GO LOWER IF LESS CLOUDS DEVELOP
THAN CURRENTLY THINKING. FOR THAT REASON...HAVE CHOSEN TO UPGRADE
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TO A FREEZE WARNING OVERNIGHT. NOT EVERYONE
IS GOING TO GET TO 32 OR LOWER...BUT STILL FEEL A WIDESPREAD FROST
IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPS...LEANED TOWARDS LOW END OF MOS AND EVEN UNDERCUT IT BY A FEW
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL WEEKS...TEMP RESPONSE HAS OUTPACED MOS GUIDANCE ON BOTH
HIGHS AND LOWS THE LAST FEW DAYS. EVEN WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
CLOUDS LATE...THINK UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL BE COMMON FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE GROWING SEASON TO COME TO AN OFFICIAL END EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
ON WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED CU/STRATOCU MAY BE A BIT
MORE PREVALENT ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUNDINGS/RH PROGS SUPPORT INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE 925-
850MB LAYER. ANY CU WILL DISSIPATE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
SATURDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE
REGION.
WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA AND THE 850MB COLD POOL NEARBY
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEST CHANCE AT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE OVER THE
AREA WILL EXIST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY FOR NOW...BUT HAVE NO DOUBT THAT THIS WILL BE
UPGRADED TO A WARNING EITHER TONIGHT OR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS ON MONDAY. TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AND PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY
BETWEEN THE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPS...GOING ALONG WITH TEMP BEHAVIOR LAST FEW DAYS...LEANED
TOWARDS FAR ENDS OF THE GUIDANCE ON BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. UNDERCUT MOS MOST EVERYWHERE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MANY
AREAS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE UNDER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. HIGHS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S BY MONDAY AND SOME AREAS IN THE WABASH VALLEY COULD
MAKE A RUN AT 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. SOLUTION SPREAD INCREASES BY MID WEEK WITH
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ACCEPTED INITIALIZATION
WITH ONLY QUALITY CONTROL ADJUSTMENTS RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TAPERING TO DRY SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE FEW TO SCATTERED CU SNEAK INTO
KLAF AND KIND THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 3-4 KFT BUT NOT EXPECTING A
CEILING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 18-22
KTS SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY IF NOT ALREADY OCCURRING AT THE SITES
AND THEN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 23Z. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 3-5 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY
EXPECT TO SEE WINDS PICK BACK UP BY MID MORNING TO AROUND 9-12 KTS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
220 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
...COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND...
17Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS IS BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO EAST KENTUCKY
ON NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15
MPH. THE HIGH HAS ALSO CLEARED THE SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S ATTM WITH DEWPOINTS
MIXING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL EASE A TIGHTENING TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH...INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN TO EASTERN CANADA.
HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
THIS TROUGH PASSES...THOUGH ANY ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
STAY NORTH OF KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER DETAILS...WITH
SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON THE COOP MOS FROM THE GFS FOR POINT BASED LOWS
EACH NIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THIS MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS EVEN THE CLOUDS WILL BE FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN. HOWEVER...A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
PLACE DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALSO MEAN CHILLY LOW
TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY FROST. IN FACT...THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT EAST
KENTUCKY IS FACING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. DO EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE UNIFORM TONIGHT THAN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE BY MORNING...THOUGH READINGS IN
THE VALLEYS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S WITH AREAS OF FROST
FORMING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON A FROST ADVISORY
HAS BEEN HOISTED TONIGHT FOR THE CWA. AFTER A COOL AND CLOUD FREE
DAY ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WILL SET UP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LARGER
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID 20S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND NEAR
FREEZING ON THE RIDGES. THIS WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT WIDESPREAD
FROST AND POTENTIALLY END THE GROWING SEASON...CERTAINLY EXPECT
THAT TO BE THE CASE IN THE VALLEYS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL CONTINUE
THE FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR T AND TD
GRIDS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE SUPERBLEND USED THEREAFTER.
DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE T GRIDS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...WENT ZERO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...IN LINE WITH ALL GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS IN
TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE SOME DRY AFTERNOONS SHAPING UP WITH RH`S
UNDER 25 PERCENT EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...SO WILL
LIKELY NEED TO CARRY SOME HEADLINES AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON FROST/FREEZE ISSUES IN THE SHORT
TERM. A WEAK FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON THURSDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
NOW THAT THE FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SKIES ARE CLEAR
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY AND CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR INTO SATURDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OF
AROUND 15 KTS...THROUGH DUSK. THESE WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR
LESS FOLLOWING SUNSET AND STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOK
FOR THEM TO PICK UP...STILL OUT OF THE NORTH...AT 5 TO 10 KTS BY
LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
1025 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...BACK TO BACK STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING. OTHERWISE EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN AREA-WIDE FOR TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER NORTHEAST SAN BERNARDINO...EASTERN INYO AND
CENTRAL SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES THIS MORNING. BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS CLARK COUNTY AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. THE LATEST
HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THE BEST FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
INYO...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NYE AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD STILL SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...
NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY CALIFORNIA. AS THE LOW
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...
ADDITIONAL FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TREND WAS ALREADY INDICATED IN THE POP
GRIDS...BUT SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO INCLUDE NORTHEAST
CLARK COUNTY INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6K FEET.
SHOWERS...SOME WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTERNOON MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 3-5K
FEET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS
AT 8 KTS OR LESS BUT WILL GUST TO AROUND 20-25 KTS IN THE VICINITY
OF STORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH CIGS/VSBY REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS INYO, NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NYE, WESTERN CLARK AND CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTIES THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAVORED OVER
CLARK...LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. CIGS WILL MAINLY BE
6K-10K FEET IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA OTHERWISE 10K-14K FEET. VSBY MAY
BE REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS TO TREND TOWARD
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 10 KTS OR LESS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH CIGS/VSBY REDUCED TO MVFR OR LOWER AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
323 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
BACK TO BACK STORM SYSTEMS WILL MAKE THINGS INTERESTING WEATHER-WISE
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IF YOU HAVE
PLANS TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IS THAT IT WILL NOT RAIN AT ALL
TIMES BUT SPECIFIC TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL RAIN AND WILL BE DRY IS
VERY TOUGH MORE THAN A FEW HOURS OUT IN THIS SORT OF PATTERN. SO,
PLEASE KEEP UPDATED WITH THE WEATHER AS CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE
RAPIDLY.
AN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED ON WATER VAPOR OVER SAN LUIS
OBISPO COUNTY, CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THOUGH WAS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER
EXTENDING FROM DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK SOUTHEAST TOWARD IRON
MOUNTAIN, CALIFORNIA. ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS BAND WAS MOVING NORTH AND
MOST OF IT WAS LIGHT WITH ONLY EMBEDDED POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST LOCAL ARW AND NMM MODELS AS
WELL AS THE HRRR AND 00Z OPERATIONAL WRF, ECMWF AND GFS BASICALLY
KEEP MOST OF THEIR QPF THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING OVER THESE SAME
AREAS AND ONLY MOVE IT GRADUALLY FURTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
POPS WERE TWEAKED UP FOR THESE AREAS. ONCE AGAIN IT APPEARS ACTIVITY
IN LAS VEGAS TODAY WILL MAINLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
CURRENTLY OUT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PARTS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
(THE NW AND MORONGO BASIN) WILL SEE IT EXPIRE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING
AS THE THREAT FOR STORMS STARTS TO DECREASE IN THESE AREAS THEN.
THIS WILL BE A LOCALIZED THREAT THAT EXISTS MAINLY IN ANY STRONGER
STORMS THAT CAN QUICKLY UNLOAD OR AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING STORMS.
HIGH TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND GIVEN THE WARM START TO THE DAY ALREADY.
AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW STARTS TO GET CAUGHT
UP IN A BROADER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE LOW STARTS TO GET
STRETCHED OUT INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND BECOME AN ELONGATED PIECE OF
ENERGY THAT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST. WE MAY SEE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS ENERGY MOVES RIGHT OVER US AND LARGER SCALE
FORCING IS GREATER. BEHIND THIS FIRST SYSTEM DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN
AND BRING AN END TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL NOT CLEAR OUT ENTIRELY IN THESE
SPOTS.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME SORT OF BREAK IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS THOUGH
IT MAY NOT BE ALL THAT WELL DEFINED OR LAST LONG FURTHER EAST AND
NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. HOWEVER, THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SLATED TO DROP SOUTH
INTO NORCAL LATE SATURDAY AND SWING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW GOOD SIGNS POINTING TO A DECENT
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. LOTS OF VORTICITY IS SHOWN TO WORK THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND A 50 KT+ JET STREAK AT 250 MB MOVES OVERHEAD.
BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME HEAVIER QPF
AMOUNTS WITH A BAND WORKING NORTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. AS A RESULT, THE THOUGHT IS THIS MAY BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING THAN WITH WHAT WE SEE TODAY OR SATURDAY
AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH KEEPS ON GOING THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AS THICKER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP COULD HOLD
DOWN READINGS EVEN MORE THAN WHAT IS FORECAST.
POINTS TO STRESS...
+ ROADS WILL BE SLICK. SLOW DOWN AND PLAN AHEAD FOR TRAVEL.
+ FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS OR TRAINING
ACTIVITY. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD QUICKLY EXCEED AN INCH IN AN HOUR
OR LESS.
+ PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL VARY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF A TENTH TO A HALF
OF AN INCH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH.
+ SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 11,000 FEET WITH A FEW INCHES
POSSIBLE.
+ ANOTHER THIRD TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
BE IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. LOCALIZED TOTALS
AGAIN COULD EXCEED AN INCH.
+ HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES
NOW DEPICTING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING DOWN BACKSIDE OF
TROUGH WHICH WILL SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT, THE ECMWF ALONG WITH NUMEROUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEVELOP A
CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA WEDNESDAY. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOHAVE COUNTY TUESDAY. LEFT WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW
BUT DEPENDING ON UPPER LOW PLACEMENT WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY.
A TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL KICK THE LOW
EASTWARD OUT OF ARIZONA THURSDAY. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA/NEVADA FRIDAY-SATURDAY,
WHILE THE GFS IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD TURN OUT
WETTER AND COOLER WHILE THE GFS WOULD BE DRY AND WINDY. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY LEFT LATE NEXT WEEK ALONE.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR
LAS VEGAS TODAY AND SATURDAY.
DATE VALUE/YEAR
-----------------------------
10/16 66/2010*
10/17 67/1991
* TIE FROM PREVIOUS YEARS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ADAIR
AVIATION...CZYZYK
SHORT TERM...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
111 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 111 PM FRI...SFC COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NC
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MID CLOUD COVER EXTENDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SFC COLD FRONT AS 700MB FGEN EVIDENT PER MODEL X SECTIONS. SOME
LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES DOT THE AREA NORTH OF THE FA...THOUGH
THESE ARE NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH PER MODEL SNDGS INDICATING DECENT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF -RA OUT OF FCST
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS THEY ENTER THE FA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF SPRINKLES THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE NE ZONES. TEMPS ON TRACK IN THE 75-80 DEGREE
RANGE FOR HIGHS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 10 AM FRI...HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. TOA TOOL INDICATES AREA OF MID
CLOUD DECK ARRIVING IN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES AND NORTHERN TIER BY
AROUND NOON AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH MID 70S NORTH AND
THEN SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FROPA...AND
NEAR 80 ELSEWHERE WITH SW WINDS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORTING ABOVE CLIMO READINGS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS BASED
ON LATEST HRRR INDICATING SHARP VEERING FROM SW TO NW/N BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWESTERN STATES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE NC COAST BETWEEN 03-06Z TONIGHT AND
WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FORECAST THROUGH 03Z. WINDS SHIFT
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT
THOUGH REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH INLAND AND 10-15 MPH ALONG THE
COAST. DRIER AIRMASS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE REGION LATE WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST, WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRI...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING PERIOD AS MODELS
REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING
INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SAT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL THIS
PERIOD AS DEEP UPR TRF CROSSES WITH STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE NW. INIT CAA WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 65 TO 70 DGR
RANGE SAT. STRONGER CAA KICKS IN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH LOWS
AROUND 40 INLAND SAT NIGHT AND MID/UPR 30S SUN NIGHT AND MON
NIGHT. HIGHS BOTH SUN AND MON WILL BE IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER
60S. THERE WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY FROST INLAND FROM THE COAST BOTH
SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THU...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST AS SFC HIGH
EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF THE COAST BRINGING SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER INTO MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE WELL
INTO THE 60S TUE THEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THU. AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THU SLIGHT CHC OF
SHRA MAINLY OVER THE CSTL WTRS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 111 PM FRIDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS
EASTERN NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING RESULTING IN SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NC, BUT REMAINING VFR. WINDS JUST
ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTH TO NW EVEN THOUGH SFC WINDS BECOME CALM
INHIBITING COVERAGE OF FOG/BR. STILL COULD SEE SOME LIGHT BR
DEVELOP IN PRONE AREAS NEAR RIVERS/STREAMS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
N/NW ON FRIDAY THOUGH REMAIN LIGHT 5-8 KT UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
LONG TERM /SAT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR.
HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS. SOME LOCAL STEAM FOG PSBL FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 111 PM FRI...LATEST OBS INDICATE SW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH OCNL
20 KT GUSTS AS SW GRADIENT INC AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MEDIUM PERIOD
SEAS STILL 1-2 FT ACROSS THE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, SHARPLY VEERING WINDS
FROM SOUTHWEST MOST OF TODAY TO NORTHERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH FRONT QUICKLY MOVING
THROUGH REMAINDER OF WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING, BUT REMAINING
15 KT OR LESS POST- FRONTAL. A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 20-24 KT RANGE
WITH QUICK NORTHERLY SURGE THOUGH REMAINING BELOW SCA.
LONG TERM /SAT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM FRI...N WINDS MAINLY 15 TO 20 KTS THRU SAT BEHIND
COLD FRONT. SECONDARY SURGES OF CAA WILL FOLLOW SAT NIGHT AND SUN
NIGHT RESULTING IN NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN NIGHT
INTO MON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH N TO S ON TUESDAY WITH
WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT SAT...4-6 FT SUN AND MAY REACH 7 TO 8
FT OUTER CNTRL WTRS EARLY MON. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE TUE AS
WINDS DIMINISH.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG/TL
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF/JBM
AVIATION...RF/DAG/TL
MARINE...RF/DAG/TL
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...COLD CYCLONIC
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. RECEIVED
SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLURRIES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI EARLY
THIS MORNING...BUT THOSE REPORTS DRIED UP BY LATE IN THE MORNING.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY MIXING OUT
OVER CENTRAL WI. THIS TREND SHOULD SPREAD EAST FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT BELTS. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A
FAIRLY SOLID CLOUD MASS IS DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKE
WINNIPEG/NORTHERN MINNESOTA REGION. CLOUDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...AND BRING IN
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AREAS OF BROKEN
CLOUDS AT TIMES...INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NE WISCONSIN.
SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
VILAS CO. THEN MODELS PROJECT THE AREA OF OVERCAST OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO N-C WI. PERHAPS WILL SEE A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELTS.
ELSEWHERE...AC DECK OVER MINNESOTA LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. SO SHOULD SEE CLEARING THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WI AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR THE COLD
SPOTS TO BECOME CALM FOR PERIODS. REMAINED CONSERVATIVE WITH LOWS
HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER. A HARD FREEZE/FROST
STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE FOX VALLEY/LAKESHORE.
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST..THEN BACK MORE
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...ANY LAKE CLOUDS AND
FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD RETREAT TOWARDS THE UPPER PENINSULA
THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE MOISTURE ORIGINATING
OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAYS
READINGS.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANTICIPATED CLEAR OR
CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS TO COMBINE WITH THE COOL DRY AIR
MASS TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN BY
SUNDAY MORNING. POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES WILL
BE NEEDED OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST. PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE H850 WARM PROD REGION OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. SINCE THE AIR MASS
WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED INITIALLY...WILL FOCUS ANY LOW END CHC
POPS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT.
FORECAST ISSUE TURNS TO WHERE THIS FRONT STALLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY PRIOR TO A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ALONG THIS FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE 12Z PROGS SUGGESTS A
MORE SOUTHERN LOCATION OF THE FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR
A DIMINISHED PCPN CHC TREND OR EVEN DRY AND CERTAINLY COOLER.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TARGETING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD
MID WEEK OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE
WAVE TRACKS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR LATER IN THE WEEK
FOR A TURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY. SINCE THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SAG A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE
IN THE COOLER BUT CLOSER TO NORMAL RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING. CLEARING IS
LIKELY TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT BELTS OF N-C
WISCONSIN...BUT KEPT SCATTERED WORDING AT MOST SITES DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN 4000-7000FT CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
WIZ022-038>040-048>050.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC