Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/15/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
734 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NY STATE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WINDS AND THE
ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED WIND HAZARDS. THE
COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AREA WIDE FREEZE. A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THEIR
TIMING. THAT SAID...THINKING THE HRRR HAS THE BEST IDEA REGARDING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. TRIED TO
ADJUST TIMING OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...BUT LOWEST
CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT OBSERVED TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE...WELL DEFINED ON LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...CONTINUES TO MOVE N-NE TOWARD THE S COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MOVING ASHORE ACROSS S AND CENTRAL
RI AS SEEN ON LATEST NE 88D RADAR MOSAIC. STILL SOME ISOLD C/G
LIGHTNING STROKES SEEN OFFSHORE AS WELL. NOTED MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY /TQ VALUES 16 TO 17/ MOVING CLOSE TO AND AHEAD OF THE
LOW AS SEEN ON 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SO CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 11Z-13Z ALONG THE S COAST TO MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND THE LOWER CAPE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...ACROSS
RI/SE MA THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE
PRECIP MOVES IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL LOWER AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. ALSO NOTING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING IN THE SW FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN MA/N CENTRAL CT. WILL SEE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS THERE.
NOTING DRY SLOT BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON THE WATER VAPOR THAT WILL WORK
IN WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...THEN COLD FRONT PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF NY STATE AS ITS H5 SHORT
WAVE SHIFTS STEADILY E. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY LOOKS TO
SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SO BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
WITH WEAK GRADIENT BETWEEN SYSTEMS...EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN WILL PICK UP FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH MILDER AIR WORKING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY MOVE E EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO W AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...AND MAY BE BRIEFLY GUSTY
ALONG THE S COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES ALONG WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...EXCEPT THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
WEDNESDAY...
AS BROAD TROUGH ALOFT SETS UP W OF THE REGION...WILL REMAIN W
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION THOUGH THE
CORE OF IT LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. MAY STILL SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S...MILDEST ACROSS E MA INTO RI AS WELL AS THE MID AND LOWER CT
VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS ...
- THURSDAY: A POTENTIAL LULL IN THE WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
- FRIDAY-SATURDAY: COOL AND WET WITH POTENTIAL WIND-HAZARDS
- SUNDAY-MONDAY: COLDEST AIR SO FAR...POTENTIAL FREEZE
DISCUSSION ...
13/00Z GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...WHICH IS
NOT THAT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME RANGE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE IS THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 13/00Z ECMWF RETAINS A
SINGLE LOW PRESSURE...WHILE THE 13/00Z GFS AND CANADIAN SPLIT OFF
SOME ENERGY AND DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON HOW LONG PRECIPITATION MAY
STICK AROUND SATURDAY.
EASTERN USA MID LEVEL TROUGH GETS REINVIGORATED THIS WEEKEND AS
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON PUTS IN AN APPEARANCE. MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND THE TYPICAL PREDICTABILITY
FOR THE DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...
BUT NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THINKING WE WILL REMAIN
MAINLY DRY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A SHOWER WOULD BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TIMING...TO SEE IF
MORE MOISTURE CAN INTERACT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DETAILS ARE NOT SO CLEAR FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...EXPECTING A LOW PRESSURE TO BE
NEARBY TO OUR NORTH...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
AS IT MOVES ON BY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE WETTEST PERIOD
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL NEED TO RESOLVE THE
EVOLUTION OF A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE...IF IT DEVELOPS AT
ALL..SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON ARRIVES
AHEAD OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...STILL EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST TO
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH FREEZE...OR FROST. WILL LIKELY NEED TO
CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...MUCH
OF THIS DRIVEN BY COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY SUNSHINE COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN
QUESTION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH MID-MORNING...IFR TO LOCAL LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD IMPROVE BY 14Z-15Z ACROSS E MA...
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS CT
VALLEY SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR CIGS. ISOLATED TSRA TOWARD
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF DAY...MAY SEE
BRIEF LOCAL MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SW
WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT VALLEY AND S
COAST...GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS WILL MOVE E THROUGH 03Z-05Z. SOME -SHRA
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES...MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO W.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP AT
AROUND 4KFT. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE DAY. MAY ALSO
SEE BRIEF LOCAL SPRINKLES WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...BEST CHANCE FOR
-SHRA ACROSS E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. EXPECT W-SW WINDS TO GUST
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
HAVE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 09Z-14Z AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS.
LOW CHANCE FOR TSRA THROUGH 14Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID
MORNING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR CIGS. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS
POSSIBLE. GREATER CHANCE FOR MVFR-LIFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVING
SATURDAY TO MVFR TO LOW-END VFR WITH SCT-BKN. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS LOW PRES
MOVES ACROSS THE E WATERS BY AROUND MIDDAY. CONTINUED S-SW WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED SWELL 5-7 FT BY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR SEAS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS
BI/RI SOUNDS.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SWEEPS OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO W.
WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT AND WED.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE OVERALL
CONFIDENCE.
MAY SEE WEST WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH SOME INTO THURSDAY BENEATH
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.
FRIDAY S/SW GALES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD AT 30 KTS FOR NOW.
SEAS EXPECTED TO BE QUICKLY BUILDING OVER ALL WATERS FRIDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WINDS TURN NW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND REMAIN BLUSTERY WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. GUSTY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS SHOULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
638 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK CONDITIONS
...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EDT...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SRN ONTARIO. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER LOW HAS KEPT IT MILD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
A COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP THIS MORNING JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF LONG ISLAND. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND STRATUS HAVE MOVED INTO
PARTS OF NW CT...THE BERKSHIRES AND EAST OF THE SRN GREEN MTNS IN
VT IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE WAVE. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS INCLUDED THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THESE AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUE TO IMPACT WRN NY
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL SFC
TROUGH ARE TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LATEST LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF HRRR PRODUCT AND THE NAM IN TERMS OF THERE ARRIVAL IN THE
WFO ALY FCST AREA. THEY WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL 15Z-17Z WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN 17Z-19Z FROM THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS SLOWER TREND WITH HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH OR FIRST FRONT. AN AREA OF CATEGORICAL VALUES WAS USED
OVER THE SRN DACKS. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH THE MAIN THRUST
OF COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAIRLY STABLE WITH ONLY SMALL
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...AND SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES MAINLY O
TO +2C. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE
COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS/TEXT
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SPC CONTINUES A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
THREAT OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER SW QUEBEC AND NRN NY
BTWN 18Z-00Z WITH THE BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS OVER THE NRN ZONES.
HIGHER QPF TOTALS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A HALF
INCH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SRN DACKS. ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
H850 TEMPS OF +10C TO +12C THIS MORNING FALL TO +4C TO +8C BY THE
LATE PM AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY OR
MAIN COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO U60S ARE FORECASTED
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE OVER THE VALLEYS AND HILLS...WITH
SOME U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER SE
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SHOWERS PERSISTING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN GREEN
MTNS...THE WRN DACKS AND INTO THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS. MAINLY THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD BE DRY...AND IN THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
TRENDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE M40S TO AROUND 50F ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
SOME LOWER 40S IN THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.
WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GEFS HAVE BELOW NORMAL H500 HEIGHTS OVER NY
AND NEW ENGLAND WITH H850 TEMPS TRENDING TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE TAPPING SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU INTO THE WRN DACKS. IN THE COOL AND MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW...EXPECT INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WRN DACKS
IN NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF
SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE LAKE ONTARIO TEMPS ARE IN THE
MID TO U50S BASED ON THE GLERL SITE...AND WITH STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH H850 TEMPS TUMBLING TO 0C TO -2C A DECENT
LAKE RESPONSE IS EXPECTED WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BRISK AND
COOL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS AND NW CT...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE MTNS...AND
IN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.
WED NIGHT...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED...THE
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL KEEP MAINLY LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS
GOING WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THE BETTER PART OF THE
NIGHT. IN BUFKIT...THE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY IS WESTERLY THEN VEERS OR
SHIFTS A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM PROFILES
AT KSYR AND KRME. OUR HIGHEST POPS WERE INCLUDED OVER THE WRN
DACKS AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. A TRANSITION TO SOME WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS. FOR NOW...HAVE A COATING TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR SO IN A FEW SPOTS. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND WINDS
MAY KEEP TEMPS UP ENOUGH FOR NOT ALLOWING FROST FORMATION WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL GOING. TEMPS FLIRT WITH THE MID 30S IN
THE ERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON GOES
UNTIL OCT 15TH. OVERALL LOWS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER MANY
OF THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U20S TO U30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND
THE MID LEVEL FLOW SLIGHTLY FLATTENS...AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS SE ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY. A MORE POTENT
SHORT-WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO MID-OCT SEASONAL VALUES WITH M50S TO
L60S OVER THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO 50S OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BE GRADUALLY DEEPENING OVER THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS ROTATING THROUGH
THE REGION...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF CYCLONIC FLOW. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE
OVER THE REGION AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN THE FIRST FALL LIKE COLD AIR MASS TO
SETTLE INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
THE FIRST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPS GET TO FREEZING OR BELOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
NOW FOR SOME SPECIFICS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. POPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA (GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES IN VERMONT). 40 TO 50
PERCENT POPS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WILL STILL PRODUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS OF
20 TO 40 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT FALL LATER AT NIGHT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...LOWEST OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...DURING THIS PERIOD IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR THESE SHOWERS TO FALL AS SNOW MOST OF THE TIME. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID
30S TO THE 40S.
THE CENTER OF A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING
BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL BE
MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND AN END TO ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS ON MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG NEVER DID FORM AT THE KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES LAST NIGHT...SO WILL
START ALL THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THE VFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST NOON.
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE TAF SITES
AROUND 17Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND 18Z AT KPSF. ONCE THE SHOWERS
ARRIVE...THERE SHOULD BE A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
DUE TO THE RAINFALL.
AFTER AROUND 13/23Z OR 14/00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL THE TAF SITES AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE...BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL BE LOW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 6 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
15 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND 23Z/00Z THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15
KTS STILL POSSIBLE AT KALB UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT
WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK CONDITIONS.
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 55 TO 75 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 50 TO 75 PERCENT.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. EXPECT WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ENDING SATURDAY.
TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A
TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE
TO A HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK
REGION.
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH DISTURBANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE MID WEEK. SOME
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE AT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MID OCTOBER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
628 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK CONDITIONS
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SRN ONTARIO. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER LOW HAS KEPT IT MILD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
A COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DELMARVA
REGION. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP THIS MORNING JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUE TO
IMPACT WRN NY THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION THIS MORNING.
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL SFC
TROUGH ARE TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LATEST LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF HRRR PRODUCT AND THE NAM IN TERMS OF THERE ARRIVAL IN THE
WFO ALY FCST AREA. THEY WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL 15Z-17Z WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN 17Z-19Z FROM THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS SLOWER TREND WITH HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WITH THE FIRST
FRONT. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF COLD
ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAIRLY STABLE WITH ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY...AND SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES MAINLY O TO +2C. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE COVERAGE DOES NOT
LOOK ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS/TEXT FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
SPC CONTINUES A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER MOST OF THE
REGION. THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TURNS
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER SW QUEBEC AND NRN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z WITH THE
BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS OVER THE NRN ZONES. HIGHER QPF TOTALS OF A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SRN DACKS. ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST.
H850 TEMPS OF +10C TO +12C THIS MORNING FALL TO +4C TO +8C BY THE
LATE PM AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY OR
MAIN COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO U60S ARE FORECASTED
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE OVER THE VALLEYS AND HILLS...WITH
SOME U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER SE
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SHOWERS PERSISTING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN GREEN
MTNS...THE WRN DACKS AND INTO THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS. MAINLY THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD BE DRY...AND IN THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
TRENDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE M40S TO AROUND 50F ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
SOME LOWER 40S IN THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.
WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GEFS HAVE BELOW NORMAL H500 HEIGHTS OVER NY
AND NEW ENGLAND WITH H850 TEMPS TRENDING TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE TAPPING SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU INTO THE WRN DACKS. IN THE COOL AND MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW...EXPECT INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WRN DACKS
IN NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF
SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE LAKE ONTARIO TEMPS ARE IN THE
MID TO U50S BASED ON THE GLERL SITE...AND WITH STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH H850 TEMPS TUMBLING TO 0C TO -2C A DECENT
LAKE RESPONSE IS EXPECTED WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BRISK AND
COOL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS AND NW CT...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE MTNS...AND
IN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.
WED NIGHT...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED...THE
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL KEEP MAINLY LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS
GOING WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THE BETTER PART OF THE
NIGHT. IN BUFKIT...THE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY IS WESTERLY THEN VEERS OR
SHIFTS A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM PROFILES
AT KSYR AND KRME. OUR HIGHEST POPS WERE INCLUDED OVER THE WRN
DACKS AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. A TRANSITION TO SOME WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS. FOR NOW...HAVE A COATING TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR SO IN A FEW SPOTS. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND WINDS
MAY KEEP TEMPS UP ENOUGH FOR NOT ALLOWING FROST FORMATION WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL GOING. TEMPS FLIRT WITH THE MID 30S IN
THE ERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON GOES
UNTIL OCT 15TH. OVERALL LOWS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER MANY
OF THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U20S TO U30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND
THE MID LEVEL FLOW SLIGHTLY FLATTENS...AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS SE ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY. A MORE POTENT
SHORT-WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO MID-OCT SEASONAL VALUES WITH M50S TO
L60S OVER THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO 50S OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BE GRADUALLY DEEPENING OVER THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS ROTATING THROUGH
THE REGION...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF CYCLONIC FLOW. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE
OVER THE REGION AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN THE FIRST FALL LIKE COLD AIR MASS TO
SETTLE INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
THE FIRST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPS GET TO FREEZING OR BELOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
NOW FOR SOME SPECIFICS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. POPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA (GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES IN VERMONT). 40 TO 50
PERCENT POPS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WILL STILL PRODUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS OF
20 TO 40 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT FALL LATER AT NIGHT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...LOWEST OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...DURING THIS PERIOD IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR THESE SHOWERS TO FALL AS SNOW MOST OF THE TIME. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID
30S TO THE 40S.
THE CENTER OF A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING
BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL BE
MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND AN END TO ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS ON MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG NEVER DID FORM AT THE KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES LAST NIGHT...SO WILL
START ALL THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITONS. THE VFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST NOON.
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE TAF SITES
AROUND 17Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND 18Z AT KPSF. ONCE THE SHOWERS
ARRIVE...THERE SHOULD BE A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
DUE TO THE RAINFALL.
AFTER AROUND 13/23Z OR 14/00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL THE TAF SITES AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE...BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL BE LOW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 6 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
15 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND 23Z/00Z THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15
KTS STILL POSSIBLE AT KALB UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT
WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK CONDITIONS.
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 55 TO 75 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 50 TO 75 PERCENT.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. EXPECT WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ENDING SATURDAY.
TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A
TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE
TO A HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK
REGION.
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH DISTURBANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE MID WEEK. SOME
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE AT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MID OCTOBER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
434 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK CONDITIONS
...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SRN ONTARIO. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER LOW HAS KEPT IT MILD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
A COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DELMARVA
REGION. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP THIS MORNING JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUE TO
IMPACT WRN NY THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION THIS MORNING.
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL SFC
TROUGH ARE TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LATEST LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF HRRR PRODUCT AND THE NAM IN TERMS OF THERE ARRIVAL IN THE
WFO ALY FCST AREA. THEY WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL 15Z-17Z WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN 17Z-19Z FROM THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS SLOWER TREND WITH HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WITH THE FIRST
FRONT. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF COLD
ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAIRLY STABLE WITH ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY...AND SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES MAINLY O TO +2C. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE COVERAGE DOES NOT
LOOK ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS/TEXT FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
SPC CONTINUES A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER MOST OF THE
REGION. THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TURNS
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER SW QUEBEC AND NRN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z WITH THE
BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS OVER THE NRN ZONES. HIGHER QPF TOTALS OF A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SRN DACKS. ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST.
H850 TEMPS OF +10C TO +12C THIS MORNING FALL TO +4C TO +8C BY THE
LATE PM AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY OR
MAIN COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO U60S ARE FORECASTED
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE OVER THE VALLEYS AND HILLS...WITH
SOME U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER SE
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SHOWERS PERSISTING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN GREEN
MTNS...THE WRN DACKS AND INTO THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS. MAINLY THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD BE DRY...AND IN THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
TRENDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE M40S TO AROUND 50F ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
SOME LOWER 40S IN THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.
WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GEFS HAVE BELOW NORMAL H500 HEIGHTS OVER NY
AND NEW ENGLAND WITH H850 TEMPS TRENDING TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE TAPPING SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU INTO THE WRN DACKS. IN THE COOL AND MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW...EXPECT INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WRN DACKS
IN NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF
SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE LAKE ONTARIO TEMPS ARE IN THE
MID TO U50S BASED ON THE GLERL SITE...AND WITH STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH H850 TEMPS TUMBLING TO 0C TO -2C A DECENT
LAKE RESPONSE IS EXPECTED WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BRISK AND
COOL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS AND NW CT...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE MTNS...AND
IN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.
WED NIGHT...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED...THE
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL KEEP MAINLY LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS
GOING WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THE BETTER PART OF THE
NIGHT. IN BUFKIT...THE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY IS WESTERLY THEN VEERS OR
SHIFTS A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM PROFILES
AT KSYR AND KRME. OUR HIGHEST POPS WERE INCLUDED OVER THE WRN
DACKS AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. A TRANSITION TO SOME WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS. FOR NOW...HAVE A COATING TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR SO IN A FEW SPOTS. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND WINDS
MAY KEEP TEMPS UP ENOUGH FOR NOT ALLOWING FROST FORMATION WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL GOING. TEMPS FLIRT WITH THE MID 30S IN
THE ERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON GOES
UNTIL OCT 15TH. OVERALL LOWS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER MANY
OF THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U20S TO U30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND
THE MID LEVEL FLOW SLIGHTLY FLATTENS...AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS SE ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY. A MORE POTENT
SHORT-WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO MID-OCT SEASONAL VALUES WITH M50S TO
L60S OVER THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO 50S OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BE GRADUALLY DEEPENING OVER THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS ROTATING THROUGH
THE REGION...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF CYCLONIC FLOW. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE
OVER THE REGION AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN THE FIRST FALL LIKE COLD AIR MASS TO
SETTLE INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
THE FIRST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPS GET TO FREEZING OR BELOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
NOW FOR SOME SPECIFICS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. POPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA (GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES IN VERMONT). 40 TO 50
PERCENT POPS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WILL STILL PRODUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS OF
20 TO 40 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT FALL LATER AT NIGHT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...LOWEST OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...DURING THIS PERIOD IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR THESE SHOWERS TO FALL AS SNOW MOST OF THE TIME. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID
30S TO THE 40S.
THE CENTER OF A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING
BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL BE
MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND AN END TO ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS ON MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AROUND NOON ON TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOG AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN 13/08Z AND
13/12Z THIS MORNING.
AFTER ABOUT 14Z...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE TAF SITES
AROUND 13/17Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND 13/18Z AT KPSF. ONCE THE
SHOWERS ARRIVE...THERE SHOULD BE A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO THE RAINFALL.
AFTER AROUND 13/23Z OR 14/00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
THE WIND WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
THROUGH AROUND 13Z/14Z...WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AT KALB OF UNDER
8 KTS. AFTER 14Z...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 6 TO 10 KTS...
WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KALB. AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND 23Z/00Z TUESDAY EVENING...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 15 KTS STILL POSSIBLE AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK CONDITIONS.
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 55 TO 75 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 50 TO 75 PERCENT.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. EXPECT WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ENDING SATURDAY.
TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A
TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE
TO A HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK
REGION.
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH DISTURBANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE MID WEEK. SOME
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE AT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MID OCTOBER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
427 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE TRI-
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MONITORING AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE S OF THE TWIN FORKS LIFTING
TO THE NE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 85+
KT 300 HPA JET STREAK...THIS JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS TO THE NE THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL LIGHTNING WITH THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWALTER INDICES OF 3 OR
LESS...AND LATEST RUC HAS THOSE VALUES STAYING OFFSHORE UNTIL
AFTER THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS. LOOKING FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM...IT APPEARS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRACK TO OUR
SOUTHEAST/NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SHOWALTER INDICES RETURN TO ABOVE
3 (THEY BASICALLY FALL BELOW 3 IN BETWEEN TWO ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION). SO WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS CONVECTION ON RADAR AND LATEST
HRRR...DO HAVE LIKELY POPS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN
NEW LONDON AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TWIN FORKS. DID NOT GO
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS...AS CONVECTION COULD STILL FALL APART AS IT
MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS...AND/OR COULD END UP TRACKING JUST TO
THE EAST.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODELS...WOULD EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION
OVER EASTERN ZONES TO COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AHEAD OF
700 AND 500 HPA SHORTWAVES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A VERY
LOW CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
LASTLY...STILL COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE
OF NYC AND ITS IMMEDIATE URBAN SURROUNDINGS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS DECREASING...BUT NOT YET TO THE POINT OF REMOVING FROM
THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POPS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS S CT AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH PASSAGE OF MAIN 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE...THEN SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE BASED ON A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND SHOULD BE
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
700-500 HPA LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...DRYING LOW LEVELS WILL SERVE TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TO MOST LIKELY AT MOST SPOTTY SPRINKLES.
HOWEVER...DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE NW QUADRANT OF THE CWA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE BASED ON A
BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND
MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST WHICH WILL IN TURN SEND SEVERAL COLD FRONTS
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL AID IN DEEPENING A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SEND A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE ON FRIDAY. MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WITH THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEFS/CMC. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
MUCH COOLER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING
AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL MOVE ACROSS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A BRIEF SHOWER
SATURDAY. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN -6C
AND -9C ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW AS MODELS CAN HAVE A SLIGHT COLD BIAS AT THIS
TIME RANGE. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE THESE
VALUES VERIFY WITH 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES NEAR 2 SD BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO AVERAGE AROUND 10
TO POSSIBLY 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. FORECAST HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S...AND ON SUNDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. SLIGHT MODERATION OCCURS ON MONDAY AS THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR MOVES EAST. THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS ALSO
LOOKING LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S. LOWS ELSEWHERE ARE FORECAST IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. SIMILAR VALUES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED VFR OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED IN
FROM A LOW PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THINKING CONDITIONS WONT
CHANGE TOO MUCH...EXCEPT ACROSS KGON WHERE CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
MVFR OR IFR.
ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z OR SO...HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR MVFR DURING THE REST OF THE DAY IN
ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS OVERALL WILL BE S-SW AT NEAR 10 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS
AND LESS ELSEWHERE. THE S-SW FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY TO 10-15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT. WINDS LOWER AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR ANY
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. W/NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KT DURING THE DAY WED.
.FRI-FRI EVENING...LOW CHANCE OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.
.LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. NW WINDS...GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR
SHORE...WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY FALLING TO AROUND 1 NM OR MAYBE
EVEN LESS AT TIMES.
WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS OVER ALL WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT LIKELY...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOTING WAVEWATCH OFTEN IS TO FAST TO BRING IN
FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...HAVE OPTED TO DELAY ONSET OF 5
FT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS UNTIL TONIGHT. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON WIND GUSTS AND SEA HEIGHT...DID NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE
TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WITH
THIS ISSUANCE.
WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ON THE NON-
OCEAN ZONES AND TO UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES. WINDS INCREASE A TAD MORE WITH COLD ADVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. A PERSISTENT SE SWELL LIKELY
WILL BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT...WITH THESE
SEAS PERSISTING ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING 5 FT SEAS ON MAINLY THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SW FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ON MOST WATERS...EXCEPT MAYBE THE WESTERN
SOUND. OCEAN SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT. THESE SEAS
SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MAINLY THE OCEAN WATERS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL IS PROBABLE FROM INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH EXPECTED CWA WIDE...AND ALL BUT FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN 1/10TH OF AN INCH.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/DS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
348 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE TRI-
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MONITORING AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE S OF THE TWIN FORKS LIFTING
TO THE NE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 85+
KT 300 HPA JET STREAK...THIS JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS TO THE NE THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL LIGHTNING WITH THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWALTER INDICES OF 3 OR
LESS...AND LATEST RUC HAS THOSE VALUES STAYING OFFSHORE UNTIL
AFTER THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS. LOOKING FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM...IT APPEARS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRACK TO OUR
SOUTHEAST/NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SHOWALTER INDICES RETURN TO ABOVE
3 (THEY BASICALLY FALL BELOW 3 IN BETWEEN TWO ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION). SO WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS CONVECTION ON RADAR AND LATEST
HRRR...DO HAVE LIKELY POPS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN
NEW LONDON AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TWIN FORKS. DID NOT GO
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS...AS CONVECTION COULD STILL FALL APART AS IT
MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS...AND/OR COULD END UP TRACKING JUST TO
THE EAST.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODELS...WOULD EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION
OVER EASTERN ZONES TO COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AHEAD OF
700 AND 500 HPA SHORTWAVES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A VERY
LOW CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
LASTLY...STILL COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE
OF NYC AND ITS IMMEDIATE URBAN SURROUNDINGS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS DECREASING...BUT NOT YET TO THE POINT OF REMOVING FROM
THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POPS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS S CT AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH PASSAGE OF MAIN 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE...THEN SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE BASED ON A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND SHOULD BE
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
700-500 HPA LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...DRYING LOW LEVELS WILL SERVE TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TO MOST LIKELY AT MOST SPOTTY SPRINKLES.
HOWEVER...DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE NW QUADRANT OF THE CWA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE BASED ON A
BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND
MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST WHICH WILL IN TURN SEND SEVERAL COLD FRONTS
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL AID IN DEEPENING A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SEND A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE ON FRIDAY. MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WITH THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEFS/CMC. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
MUCH COOLER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING
AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL MOVE ACROSS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A BRIEF SHOWER
SATURDAY. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN -6C
AND -9C ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW AS MODELS CAN HAVE A SLIGHT COLD BIAS AT THIS
TIME RANGE. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE THESE
VALUES VERIFY WITH 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES NEAR 2 SD BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO AVERAGE AROUND 10
TO POSSIBLY 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. FORECAST HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S...AND ON SUNDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. SLIGHT MODERATION OCCURS ON MONDAY AS THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR MOVES EAST. THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS ALSO
LOOKING LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S. LOWS ELSEWHERE ARE FORECAST IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. SIMILAR VALUES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION NEAR KSWF. THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE EASTWARD.
VFR INITIALLY WILL TREND DOWN TO MVFR/IFR FOR TERMINALS AWAY FROM
THE CITY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FIRST AT KGON AND THEN
LOWER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM EAST TO
WEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY
MORNING BACK TO VFR BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR MVFR
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
THE WINDS OVERALL WILL BE S-SW AT NEAR 10 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS
AND LESS ELSEWHERE. THE S-SW FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY TO 10-15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT. WINDS LOWER AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AS WELL AS
TIMING OF MVFR/IFR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. W/NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KT DURING THE DAY WED.
.FRI-FRI EVENING...LOW CHANCE OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.
.LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. NW WINDS...GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR
SHORE...WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY FALLING TO AROUND 1 NM OR MAYBE
EVEN LESS AT TIMES.
WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS OVER ALL WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT LIKELY...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOTING WAVEWATCH OFTEN IS TO FAST TO BRING IN
FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...HAVE OPTED TO DELAY ONSET OF 5
FT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS UNTIL TONIGHT. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON WIND GUSTS AND SEA HEIGHT...DID NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE
TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WITH
THIS ISSUANCE.
WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ON THE NON-
OCEAN ZONES AND TO UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES. WINDS INCREASE A TAD MORE WITH COLD ADVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. A PERSISTENT SE SWELL LIKELY
WILL BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT...WITH THESE
SEAS PERSISTING ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING 5 FT SEAS ON MAINLY THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SW FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ON MOST WATERS...EXCEPT MAYBE THE WESTERN
SOUND. OCEAN SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT. THESE SEAS
SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MAINLY THE OCEAN WATERS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL IS PROBABLE FROM INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH EXPECTED CWA WIDE...AND ALL BUT FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN 1/10TH OF AN INCH.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC/JM
MARINE...MALOIT/DS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
903 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO MIDWEST AND MID
SOUTH REGIONS OF THE US. THERE WAS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER THAN THE UPSTREAM
ONE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR WESTERN ZONES
OF EASTERN PA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
LATEST RADAR SHOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS APPROACHING WRN SECTIONS OF
OUR CWA. GUID CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON HOW MUCH OF IT MAKES IT THRU
OUR REGION. LATEST HRRR IS A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN PREV RUNS,
ESPECIALLY FOR NRN AREAS, SO HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ACRS THE N,
BUT STILL THE GUID IS DRIER THAN YDY.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO
THE AFTERNOON, MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NE PA/NW NJ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU
THE DELAWARE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST
MID EVENING.
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
BY THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF TO ISOLATED. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS BECOME W-NWLY. HOWEVER, CAA STRATOCU SHOULD REACH THE
POCONOS OVERNIGHT.
DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO LOW ON MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AS THE WINDS SHOULD
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED, EXCEPT MAYBE IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN NE PA/NW NJ TO THE MID 50S
IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE SKIES CLOUDING UP THROUGH THE
DAY. THE MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKS LIMITED AND THE FRONT APPEARS TO
WEAKEN AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION.
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
CLOUDS SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AREAS, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT WE WILL SEE
INFLUENCE FROM IT AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD AND NOSES UP TOWARDS OUR
AREA.
THE HIGH GETS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING AND SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY, EXITING OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED, ONCE AGAIN, THERE LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. WE HAVE BROUGHT THE START OF
SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ALL SHOWERS LOOKING TO END BY
FRIDAY EVENING.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A REINFORCING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED
BOUNDARY BUT SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES, THAT`S RIGHT FLURRIES, MAY
MAKE IT TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS AND WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THE AIRMASS TO MODIFY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
COLDEST NIGHTS LOOK TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SUCH COLD
TEMPERATURES COMES THE THREAT OF FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS.
WHILE A FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS HAS SOME REALLY GOOD
POTENTIAL, A FROST IS NOT AS QUITE CLEAR CUT IN AREAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AT NIGHT,
BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE REALLY LOSE THAT GRADIENT FLOW SO IT MAY
BE DIFFICULT FOR FROST TO FORM ON THESE NIGHTS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
ALSO BE COLD, BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER IN THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
WOULD BE OUT TOWARD RDG/ABE. AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF DAYTIME
MIXING, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. SHRA WITH THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.
LIMITED THE IMPACTED ON VSBYS FROM ANY SHRA AT RDG AND ABE.
FARTHER EAST, A MENTION OF SHRA IN THE TAFS WAS CONFINED TO A
PROB30 GROUP.
SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
VFR TONIGHT.
S-SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN BEFORE BECOMING W-NWLY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTS. WEST WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS OR
GREATER.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TODAY THAT INCLUDES MOST OF OUR COASTAL ATLANTIC
WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MOST ZONE, ANZ450. S-SWLY WINDS BY
MID MRNG ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND BY INCREASING TO 4-5 FT THIS AFTN.
WINDS BECOME W-NWLY LATE THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW AND GUSTS MAY NEAR 25 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FLOW SHOULD START TO WEAKEN WITH GUSTS REMAINING BELOW 25 KNOTS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT
ON FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE OVERALL GRADIENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAN THE MIDWEEK ONE AND THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEING REACHED ON ALL OF THE
WATERS, ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ451>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...KLEIN/MEOLA/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/MEOLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
128 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.AVIATION...
THE SEA BREEZES ARE FINALLY STARTING TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST AND
EAST COASTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TERMINAL KPBI BUT SHOULD SET
IN SOON. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
AROUND 00Z REGIONAL WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AN OFF SHORE
LAND BREEZE IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR ALL TERMINALS.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
UPDATE...
MADE VERY SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR GULF WATERS AND NAPLES METRO AREA AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN PATCHES OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REGIONAL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WEST AND EAST
COAST SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME.
AROUND 00Z LIKELY TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SOUTH FLORIDA SITTING BENEATH THE
BASE OF A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS MAINTAINING A
DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT AMOUNTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT FROM LAST
EVENING`S 00Z MFL SOUNDING AT 1.52". FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE VERY LOW LEVELS AND A SLIGHT NUDGE UP OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PWAT INCREASING TO AROUND 1.6-1.7" BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SO WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELD, A SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT
TERM MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS. THE HRRR WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
EARLIER RUNS BUT HAS SINCE BACKED OFF ON MUCH DEVELOPMENT SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV GUIDANCE AND JUST GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM MAINTAINS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN NIL.
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS
SHOW A RETURN OF MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO EMERGE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES
NORTHWARD AND THE PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 2". THE NAM ALSO SHOWS THE
CAP ERODING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS FORESEEN ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENING SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, I CAN ALSO SEE THIS FORECAST TRENDING DOWN AS
TIME GOES ON AS THESE PATTERNS ARE NEVER HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE
MODELS AND SOMETIMES ARE WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE IN THE MOISTURE
RETURN.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...
ONLY SOME SUBTLE CHANGES ARE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LARGE
SCALE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM MOVING VERY FAR TO THE NORTH AND IN FACT SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT
COULD BE SHOVED BACK TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IS FORECAST TO
BE 1035MB WHICH WILL CAUSE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS WIND REMAINS BELOW 15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS AND THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 88 74 87 / 10 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 88 76 87 / 30 40 30 30
MIAMI 75 88 77 88 / 30 40 30 30
NAPLES 73 87 74 89 / 10 30 10 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1054 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.UPDATE...
MADE VERY SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR GULF WATERS AND NAPLES METRO AREA AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN PATCHES OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REGIONAL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WEST AND EAST
COAST SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME.
AROUND 00Z LIKELY TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SOUTH FLORIDA SITTING BENEATH THE
BASE OF A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS MAINTAINING A
DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT AMOUNTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT FROM LAST
EVENING`S 00Z MFL SOUNDING AT 1.52". FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE VERY LOW LEVELS AND A SLIGHT NUDGE UP OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PWAT INCREASING TO AROUND 1.6-1.7" BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SO WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELD, A SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT
TERM MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS. THE HRRR WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
EARLIER RUNS BUT HAS SINCE BACKED OFF ON MUCH DEVELOPMENT SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV GUIDANCE AND JUST GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM MAINTAINS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN NIL.
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS
SHOW A RETURN OF MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO EMERGE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES
NORTHWARD AND THE PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 2". THE NAM ALSO SHOWS THE
CAP ERODING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS FORESEEN ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENING SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, I CAN ALSO SEE THIS FORECAST TRENDING DOWN AS
TIME GOES ON AS THESE PATTERNS ARE NEVER HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE
MODELS AND SOMETIMES ARE WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE IN THE MOISTURE
RETURN.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...
ONLY SOME SUBTLE CHANGES ARE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LARGE
SCALE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM MOVING VERY FAR TO THE NORTH AND IN FACT SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT
COULD BE SHOVED BACK TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IS FORECAST TO
BE 1035MB WHICH WILL CAUSE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS WIND REMAINS BELOW 15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS AND THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 73 88 74 / 10 10 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 76 88 76 / 10 30 40 30
MIAMI 88 75 88 77 / 10 30 40 30
NAPLES 87 73 87 74 / 20 10 30 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
744 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REGIONAL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WEST AND EAST
COAST SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME.
AROUND 00Z LIKELY TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SOUTH FLORIDA SITTING BENEATH THE
BASE OF A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS MAINTAINING A
DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT AMOUNTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT FROM LAST
EVENING`S 00Z MFL SOUNDING AT 1.52". FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE VERY LOW LEVELS AND A SLIGHT NUDGE UP OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PWAT INCREASING TO AROUND 1.6-1.7" BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SO WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELD, A SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT
TERM MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS. THE HRRR WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
EARLIER RUNS BUT HAS SINCE BACKED OFF ON MUCH DEVELOPMENT SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV GUIDANCE AND JUST GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM MAINTAINS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN NIL.
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS
SHOW A RETURN OF MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO EMERGE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES
NORTHWARD AND THE PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 2". THE NAM ALSO SHOWS THE
CAP ERODING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS FORESEEN ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENING SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, I CAN ALSO SEE THIS FORECAST TRENDING DOWN AS
TIME GOES ON AS THESE PATTERNS ARE NEVER HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE
MODELS AND SOMETIMES ARE WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE IN THE MOISTURE
RETURN.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...
ONLY SOME SUBTLE CHANGES ARE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LARGE
SCALE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM MOVING VERY FAR TO THE NORTH AND IN FACT SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT
COULD BE SHOVED BACK TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IS FORECAST TO
BE 1035MB WHICH WILL CAUSE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS WIND REMAINS BELOW 15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS AND THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 73 88 74 / 10 10 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 76 88 76 / 20 30 40 30
MIAMI 88 75 88 77 / 20 30 40 30
NAPLES 87 73 87 74 / 10 10 30 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
355 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SOUTH FLORIDA SITTING BENEATH THE
BASE OF A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS MAINTAINING A
DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT AMOUNTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT FROM LAST
EVENING`S 00Z MFL SOUNDING AT 1.52". FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE VERY LOW LEVELS AND A SLIGHT NUDGE UP OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PWAT INCREASING TO AROUND 1.6-1.7" BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SO WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELD, A SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT
TERM MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS. THE HRRR WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
EARLIER RUNS BUT HAS SINCE BACKED OFF ON MUCH DEVELOPMENT SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV GUIDANCE AND JUST GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM MAINTAINS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN NIL.
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS
SHOW A RETURN OF MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO EMERGE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES
NORTHWARD AND THE PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 2". THE NAM ALSO SHOWS THE
CAP ERODING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS FORESEEN ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENING SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, I CAN ALSO SEE THIS FORECAST TRENDING DOWN AS
TIME GOES ON AS THESE PATTERNS ARE NEVER HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE
MODELS AND SOMETIMES ARE WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE IN THE MOISTURE
RETURN.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...
ONLY SOME SUBTLE CHANGES ARE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LARGE
SCALE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM MOVING VERY FAR TO THE NORTH AND IN FACT SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT
COULD BE SHOVED BACK TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IS FORECAST TO
BE 1035MB WHICH WILL CAUSE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS WIND REMAINS BELOW 15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS AND THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 73 88 74 / 10 10 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 76 88 76 / 20 30 40 30
MIAMI 88 75 88 77 / 20 30 40 30
NAPLES 87 73 87 74 / 10 10 30 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
132 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THIS MORNING. WILL
UPDATE THE POPS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. LATEST RUN
OF THE HRRR KEEPS THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH GA WILL WEAKEN BUT
CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. PRECIP/CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY...AND BY TONIGHT THE CWA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
17
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF THE SAME WAY IT FINISHES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THINGS DRY. A VERY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER N GA BY 00Z-06Z THU. THIS RIDGING CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE EXTENDED THROUGH DAY 7 IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS A
VERY WEAK DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY...BUT ALL IT BRINGS IS ANOTHER REINFORCING RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOW THROUGH DAY 7
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S...AND DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE...AND SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 78 51 74 48 / 10 5 0 0
ATLANTA 78 52 74 51 / 10 5 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 75 43 68 42 / 10 5 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 79 47 74 45 / 10 5 0 0
COLUMBUS 80 52 78 50 / 70 5 0 0
GAINESVILLE 77 51 73 48 / 10 5 0 0
MACON 83 51 78 49 / 60 5 0 0
ROME 78 46 75 46 / 10 5 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 79 47 76 47 / 20 5 0 0
VIDALIA 84 56 80 53 / 70 5 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1110 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THIS MORNING. WILL
UPDATE THE POPS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. LATEST RUN
OF THE HRRR KEEPS THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH GA WILL WEAKEN BUT
CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. PRECIP/CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY...AND BY TONIGHT THE CWA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
17
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF THE SAME WAY IT FINISHES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THINGS DRY. A VERY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER N GA BY 00Z-06Z THU. THIS RIDGING CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE EXTENDED THROUGH DAY 7 IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS A
VERY WEAK DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY...BUT ALL IT BRINGS IS ANOTHER REINFORCING RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOW THROUGH DAY 7
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S...AND DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM.
01
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CSG/MCN BUT
THIS WILL EXIT BY 15Z LEAVING ALL TAF SITES DRY. VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TAFS...HOWEVER WITH INITIAL LIFTING AROUND THE ATL AND AHN
AREAS...THERE COULD BE A SCT015 DECK. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD
BRIEFLY GO BKN...THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. DRY AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING CLEARING SKIES BY AFTERNOON WITH AT
SCATTERED CU DECK WHICH WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS WILL
BE WESTERLY WITH A FEW GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CLOUDS THIS MORNING
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 78 51 74 48 / 10 5 0 0
ATLANTA 78 52 74 51 / 10 5 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 75 43 68 42 / 10 5 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 79 47 74 45 / 10 5 0 0
COLUMBUS 80 52 78 50 / 50 5 0 0
GAINESVILLE 77 51 73 48 / 10 5 0 0
MACON 83 51 78 49 / 50 5 0 0
ROME 78 46 75 46 / 10 5 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 79 47 76 47 / 20 5 0 0
VIDALIA 84 56 80 53 / 50 5 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
149 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NW GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NW FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE FROM SE MONTANA ACROSS OUR CWA AND OVER
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...RFW WAS ISSUED EARLIER BASED
ON TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. AS EXPECTED
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS HOWEVER WITH STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (REFLECTED
ON AREA VAD WIND PROFILES AND RAP SOUNDINGS)...THERE SHOULD BE 3HR
OF RFW CRITERIA OVER EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
WAS WHETHER 3HR CRITERIA WOULD BE MET FURTHER WEST. WHILE IT IS
MARGINAL THERE IS STILL A SOLID WINDOW FOR RFW AT LEAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE WARNING.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE PATTERN
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH NW FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. DEEP DRY AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL DESPITE A FEW PASSING
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND LOW TD VALUES WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S DESPITE WAA ALOFT. LOW LYING VALLEYS AND
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY SEE ISOLATED FROST CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WITH UPPER
LOW TRANSITIONING EASTWARD RISING HEIGHTS/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY NOT
WARM UP QUITE AS MUCH...HOWEVER MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY AS WE WILL BE SITUATED
BETWEEN A WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A RELATIVELY POTENT TROUGH
TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE AND BECOME
WESTERLY ON SATURDAY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. A H5
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES LATE SUNDAY THEN
MOVE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS
POINT THE ECMWF BECOMES SLOWER WITH THE GFS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE SPEED AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LOW. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY EVENING MAINLY IN THE WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
BUT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER 40S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
FR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH RIDGING
ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE BREEZY
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NW GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NW FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE FROM SE MONTANA ACROSS OUR CWA AND OVER
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...RFW WAS ISSUED EARLIER BASED
ON TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. AS EXPECTED
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS HOWEVER WITH STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (REFLECTED
ON AREA VAD WIND PROFILES AND RAP SOUNDINGS)...THERE SHOULD BE 3HR
OF RFW CRITERIA OVER EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
WAS WHETHER 3HR CRITERIA WOULD BE MET FURTHER WEST. WHILE IT IS
MARGINAL THERE IS STILL A SOLID WINDOW FOR RFW AT LEAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE WARNING.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE PATTERN
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH NW FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. DEEP DRY AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL DESPITE A FEW PASSING
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND LOW TD VALUES WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S DESPITE WAA ALOFT. LOW LYING VALLEYS AND
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY SEE ISOLATED FROST CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WITH UPPER
LOW TRANSITIONING EASTWARD RISING HEIGHTS/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY NOT
WARM UP QUITE AS MUCH...HOWEVER MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING FOR THE
MOST PART A PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA.
THE EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WERE SOME AMPLIFICATION
WAS TAKEN PLACE AND OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHERE A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT SYSTEM WERE LOCATED IN A MEAN TROUGH.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE. THE SREF WAS STARTED OUT BEST WITH THE SURFACE
WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO START OUT TOO COLD.
THE NAM...CANADIAN AND ECMWF WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE SO WOULD EXPECT A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR TEMPERATURES TOO COOL OFF...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS. SO LOWERED MINS ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. RETURN FLOW/RECYCLED COOL AIR IS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE PRETTY CLOSE WITH PLENTY OF
SUN EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR THE CLUSTERING OF THE
GUIDANCE BUT TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER ESPECIALLY MY EASTERN AREAS
WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT NOT TOO FAR AWAY. SO MINS WILL BE TRICKY. WINDS ARE MUCH
LIGHTER IN THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF IT. TENDED TO GO WITH THE SLIGHTLY BELOW THE GUIDANCE.
THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THEY DIFFER ON TIMING/VALUES...MODELS DO SHOW
THE TEMPERATURES COOLING THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO EARLY HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH STEADY OR FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TENDED TOWARD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SINCE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
THAT. STILL MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN A SPLITTING TROUGH STARTS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS IS FASTER/LOWER WITH HEIGHTS THAN THE
ECMWF. ENSEMBLES DIFFER ON THIS AS WELL. IN GENERAL THEY DO KEEP
THIS TROUGH AS AN OPEN WAVE AND A LITTLE FASTER.
IF THE FASTER SPEED DOES WORK OUT...TROUGH MAY BE APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...NOT SURE IF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY MUCH MOISTURE OR DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
WORK CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT/SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. FOR THE MOST
PART A DRY FORECAST IS STILL APPROPRIATE. HOWEVER...THE INIT GAVE ME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MY SOUTHERN PORTION SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. AT THE SAME TIME
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SO
CONSIDERED THAT AND AFTER COLLABORATION...HAVE LEFT THAT IN.
THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A PRETTY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF SATURDAY WHEN A WARMUP STARTS.
CONSIDERING THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE
PLACE...BELIEVE THAT THE MINS THAT NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN WHAT
THE INIT GAVE. SO AFTER COLLABORATION DID LOWER THE MINS. WINDS DO
COME UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE EASTERN PORTION HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT. SO AFTER COLLABORATION...DID
LOWER SLIGHTLY IN MY EASTERN/NORTHEAST LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME LOOKS GOOD AND PLAN ON
NO ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
FR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH RIDGING
ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE BREEZY
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
803 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
USHERING IN COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
00Z MSAS INDCTG THE CDFRNT MOVG SOUTH ACROSS THE FA NOTED BY A
FINE LINE JUST NORTH OF RIC). SFC OBS / SAT LOOP INDCTG A BKN-OVC
SC / AC DECK BTWN 6-8K FT. RADAR ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOES
DVLPNG PAST 30 MIN OR SO BEHIND THE BNDRY WITH THIS CLOUD DECK.
NOT SURE IF ANY OF PCPN IS REACHING THE GRND...BUT LTST HRRR /
RAP SHOW THE PSBLTY OF SOME LIGHT SHWRS / SPRNKLS NEXT FEW HRS
MAINLY NORTH OF THE I64 CORRIDOE AS THE FRNT CONTS TO MOVE SOUTH.
THUS...ADDED SLGHT CHC POPS TO THOSE AREAS THRU THE EVE HRS.
OTW...XPCT SKIES TO CLR AFTR MIDNIGHT AS THE FRNT / TROF PUSHES
OFFSHORE. LOWS FROM THE M-U40S INLAND...L-M50S FOR COASTAL AND
URBAN AREAS OF SE VA/NE NC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO 3-5C THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OFTHE
MID/UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BUT WITH
HIGHTEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES (FROM WEDNESDAY) INTO
THEMID/UPPER 60S NE...LOWER 70S SE. CLEAR AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
WITHHIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. FORECAST
LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
DEEP LAYER ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS FRIDAY AS A SHEARING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHAPPROACHES FROM THE NW. 14/12Z ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL TO
DEPICT ANYLIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE THE 14/12Z
GFS/NAM ARE DRY.IT IS NOT A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR PCPN...BUT
WILL MAINTAINCONTINUITY AND CONTINUE WITH A ~20% POP ACROSS THE NE
FRIDAYAFTERNOON. SKY COVER SHOULD AVERAGE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT A
MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD IS POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.
FORECASTHIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S N...TO THE MID 70S S.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH REGION FRIDAY
EVENING...WITHCANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW
SATURDAY. COOLER AIRFILTERS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO
THE LOW 40S OVER THEPIEDMONT TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST. 850MB
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW0C ACROSS THE N DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...AND AVERAGE 2-4C ACROSSSRN PORTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50SNW...TO THE LOW/MID 60S SE UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL REMAIN COOL/WELL
BELOW NORMAL...BEFORE A MODERATING TREND NEXT TUES/WED. LATEST
14/12Z SUITE OF MODELS INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF AS WELL
GEMS MEANS CONTINUE TO DEPICT H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 0 C OVER
ERN NC TO -4 C ACROSS THE MD ERN SHORE BY SUNDAY. THIS IS -2 TO -2.5
STD DEV FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS YIELD HIGHS
SUN/MON IN THE MID TO UPR 50S. LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING WILL DROP
INTO THE MID 30S ALONG/WEST OF I-95 TO THE 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/WEST OF I-95. SUN NIGHT/MON
MORNING LOOKS TO BE EVEN COLDER AS THE SFC HIGH BECOMES SITUATED IN
A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH (~1035 MB) AND VERY DRY AIRMASS THINK A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS BECOMING POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...POSSIBLY A LITTLE FARTHER EAST.
LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE TUES AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. RETURN/SLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS TUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...WITH 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
NEXT WED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS INDICATED TO BE JUST NORTH OF RIC AT 00Z
ISSUANCE TIME WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. RADAR
INDICATES A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS NEAR FREDERICKSBURG BUT THESE ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT FROM
THE N/NW FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY PREVAILS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS REMAINING 10
KNOTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...DRY WX IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HI PRES
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND SLIDES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT SWINGS THRU THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND
SETTLES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS THRU THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL UNIMPRESSED WITH
THE WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE TONIGHT...SO NO SCA HEADLINES ATTM. EXPECT
WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT THRU MID MORN THU. WINDS THEN DECREASE
AGAIN BY THU AFTN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE AREA. WAVES
1-2 FT; SEAS 2-3 FT.
WINDS RETURN TO THE SW AND INCREASE THU NIGHT/FRI MORN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT (10-15KT). A MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE IS LIKELY SAT
AND SAT NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND
REINFORCES A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE WATERS. THE SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU SUN NIGHT...BEFORE THE HIGH SETTLES OVER
THE WATERS MON. NWLY WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 4 TO 6 FT
AND WAVES 3 TO 4 FT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
LATE MON AND TUES.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...JDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
406 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID-LVL TROUGH OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NE U.S. AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SFC...A LOW PRES SYSTEM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. COLD ADVECTION IN MOIST CYCLONIC NW
FLOW IS STILL PRODUCING ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR NW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SFC LOW SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY LIFTS QUICKLY EAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
BACKING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ALSO LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
TO END OVERNIGHT NCNTRL AND EAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO SKIRT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
WED. WEAK 700-300 MB Q-VECT CONVERGENCE FROM SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW-
LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ASSOC SFC TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE ERN THIRD OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON PER MODEL
QPF OUTPUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER
ALGER...LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING
SKIES TO RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING OVER THE WRN INTERIOR TO THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S EAST AND NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE TAIL OF TWO HALVES...WITH THE
FIRST HALF EXPERIENCING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION AND THE SECOND HALF WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST...AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE
AND TOWARDS LUCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE TOO
LIMITED FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE COLDEST
AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. A MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN AND THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AMPLIFY THE TROUGH OVER THE
REGION AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT (BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH) AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL
BE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT AROUND -8C. AS THAT COLD AIR ARRIVES...SHOULD SEE LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION PICK UP THROUGH THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POCKETS OF DRIER AIR SLIDING THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT WITH THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FAIRLY STRONG (DELTA-T
VALUES OF 16-20) WILL SHOW CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THAT
TIME FOR AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AND WE CAN FINE
TUNE THE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION PERIODS AS WE GET CLOSER. AS FOR
PRECIP TYPE...EXPECT IT TO START AS RAIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...BUT AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES IN IT WILL
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL) DUE TO THE WETBULB0 HEIGHTS CRASHING BELOW
700FT. WETBULB0 HEIGHTS DO TRY TO HANG ON BETWEEN 700-1300FT OVER
THE EASTERN CWA (AIDED BY THE LAKE MODIFIED AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR)
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THAT AREA FOR FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING TO MAINLY SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FORM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A NICE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO
SURGE TO 10C AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND POSSIBLY A
FEW 60S OVER THE FAR WEST. MODELS HAVE CHANGED UP THE THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STRONG LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN CANADA AND SWEEPING A TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THAT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY OR STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AT
THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT
THE TAF SITES. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WINDS BACKING MORE WESTERLY WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTN AT KIWD AND THEN LATE TONIGHT AT
KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED BLO GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW
GRADIENT WEAKENS BETWEEN LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND HIGH PRES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR NW WINDS 20-30 KTS...STRONGEST EAST
HALF TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT (GENERALLY TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS)
WINDS WILL THEN BACK W-SW ON WED AND BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS
STRONGEST WEST AND NCNTRL AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA.
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION TO SEE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW IN CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR GALES WOULD BE ON THU NIGHT-FRI FOR THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPER TROUGH AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID-LVL TROUGH OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NE U.S. AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SFC...A LOW PRES SYSTEM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. COLD ADVECTION IN MOIST CYCLONIC NW
FLOW IS STILL PRODUCING ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR NW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SFC LOW SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY LIFTS QUICKLY EAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
BACKING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ALSO LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
TO END OVERNIGHT NCNTRL AND EAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO SKIRT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
WED. WEAK 700-300 MB Q-VECT CONVERGENCE FROM SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW-
LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ASSOC SFC TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE ERN THIRD OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON PER MODEL
QPF OUTPUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER
ALGER...LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING
SKIES TO RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING OVER THE WRN INTERIOR TO THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S EAST AND NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NEARBY WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH OF A SECOND SHORTWAVE
MOVING NEARBY THU...BUT NO MODELS SHOW ALL THAT MUCH PRECIP DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. GENERALLY...MODEL QPF SUGGESTS SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SECOND SHORTWAVE...WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST TO BRING IT IN (GFS 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF). THE GFS HAS SHOWN GREATER CONTINUITY WITH TIMING OF THE
COLDER AIR...SO WILL DESCRIBE WHAT IT SHOWS. BY 00Z FRI...850MB
TEMPS WILL BE -1C TO -3C WITH NW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -7C TO
-9C BY 12Z FRI AS WINDS TURN MORE NNW. THESE TEMPS STICK AROUND WITH
NNW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF FRI NIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE NW SAT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES NEARBY AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE A DEGREE OR
TWO...ALL WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SW OF THE CWA. THE HIGH
SHIFTS E LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO SHIFT ACROSS
THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP WILL START
THU EVENING EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES...AND CONTINUE
INTO SAT MORNING...ENHANCED WHEN SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND REDUCED
SOME BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES AS SHORTWAVE SFC RIDGING RESULTS. PRECIP
TYPE CHANGES FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W HALF THU NIGHT. PTYPE TURNS TO ALL SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL AND W FRI MORNING...WITH A MIX ELSEWHERE. PTYPE
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE FRI EVENING INTO SAT MORNING AS SFC
MIN TEMPS FALL BELOW TO WELL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS. PTYPE
THEN TURNS BACK TO A MIX LATE SAT MORNING...THEN MOSTLY SNOW AGAIN
SAT EVENING INTO SUN MORNING. COULD SEE SOME VERY MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
STRONG SW FLOW BRINGS WARMER CONDITIONS FOR SUN AND MON WITH A
CHANCE FOR RAIN MON OR MON NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES NEARBY. WHILE
STILL VERY UNCERTAIN...A FRONTAL MAY STALL OUT OVER OR NEAR THE CWA
MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT
THE TAF SITES. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WINDS BACKING MORE WESTERLY WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTN AT KIWD AND THEN LATE TONIGHT AT
KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED BLO GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW
GRADIENT WEAKENS BETWEEN LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND HIGH PRES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR NW WINDS 20-30 KTS...STRONGEST EAST
HALF TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT (GENERALLY TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS)
WINDS WILL THEN BACK W-SW ON WED AND BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS
STRONGEST WEST AND NCNTRL AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA.
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION TO SEE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW IN CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR GALES WOULD BE ON THU NIGHT-FRI FOR THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPER TROUGH AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
317 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHRTWV
ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER MOVING TO THE E...BRINGING 00Z-12Z H5
HGT FALLS UP TO 240M AT INL. DESPITE THE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ATTENDANT COLD FNT MOVING THRU THE
ERN CWA EARLY THIS AFTN IS PCPN FREE DUE TO DRYNESS OF THE MID LVLS
SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB. SKIES HAVE TURNED MOSUNNY FOLLOWING THE
COLD FROPA UNDER DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...BUT AREA OF DEEPER
MSTR DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND ASSOCIATED SECOND COLD
FNT MOVING THRU MN ARE BRINGING MORE CLDS TO THE W HALF AS
WELL AS SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN LK SUP/NW WI. WSW WINDS HAVE
BEEN GUSTING AS HI AS 30 TO 35 MPH AT SOME PLACES IN WI/WRN UPR MI
THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SECOND COLD FNT...BUT STRONGER NW WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSVD BEHIND THE SECOND FNT IN WRN MN/THE NRN
PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINDS/NEED FOR WIND
ADVYS AS WELL AS LAKE ENHANCED POPS.
TNGT...SHRTWV MOVING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SLOWLY ESEWD OVER THE NE HALF OF LK SUP THIS EVNG. ALTHOUGH THE
SHARPER DYANMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WL SLIDE TO
THE N OF UPR MI...BACKWASH MSTR/SHARP CYC FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF
SFC LO AND ATTENDANT SECOND COLD FNT WL BRING SOME SHOWERS W-E LATE
THIS AFTN/EVNG. AS SHARPER CYC NNW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND H85
TEMPS SLOWLY COOL BEHIND THE FROPA...SCT TO NMRS LK ENHANCED SHOWERS
WL LINGER DOWNWIND OF LK SUP UNDER THE DEEP MSTR IN SPITE OF LARGER
SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV.
THE PRES GRADIENT/H925 WINDS SPEEDS ARE FCST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY WITH
TIME THRU THE NGT...SO WINDS OVER UPR MI WL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
50 MPH GUSTS OBSVD UPSTREAM. THE CAA BEHIND THE FROPA AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND THE FNT ARE ALSO FCST TO BE MODERATE...BUT
OPTED TO RETAIN GOING WIND ADVY FOR THE KEWEENAW GIVEN FAVORABLE
EXPOSURE AND APRCH OF PRES RISE CENTER/STRONGER ISALLOBARIC WIND
AIMED AT THAT AREA IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
TUE...SHARP PRES GRADIENT AND RIBBON OF STRONGER H925 NW WINDS UP
TO 35 KTS ARE FCST TO BE OVER UPR MI AT 12Z TUE. FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE TRAILING/WEAKENING PRES RISE CENTER BY 18Z...THE PRES
GRADIENT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH. CONSIDERED A WIND ADVY FOR THE MORE
EXPOSED ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES...BUT OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ATTM GIVEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES RISE CENTER/GRADIENT AND MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THIS
AREA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WL PERSIST THRU THE DAY...THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF PRES RISE CENTER AT 18Z.
UPR MI WL REMAIN UNDER H85 THERMAL TROF WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO
AS ABOUT -2C IN LLVL NW FLOW AHEAD OF HI PRES MOVING INTO MN...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLDS TO LINGER EVEN IF THE SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISHES
WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE/WEAKENING CYC FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. WITH THE CLDS AND H85 THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
TEMPS TO RISE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE DEGREES FM THE MRNG LOWS. TUE WL
FEEL MUCH MORE AUTUMNAL THAN RECENT DAYS EVEN IF THE WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH IN THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NEARBY WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH OF A SECOND SHORTWAVE
MOVING NEARBY THU...BUT NO MODELS SHOW ALL THAT MUCH PRECIP DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. GENERALLY...MODEL QPF SUGGESTS SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SECOND SHORTWAVE...WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST TO BRING IT IN (GFS 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF). THE GFS HAS SHOWN GREATER CONTINUITY WITH TIMING OF THE
COLDER AIR...SO WILL DESCRIBE WHAT IT SHOWS. BY 00Z FRI...850MB
TEMPS WILL BE -1C TO -3C WITH NW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -7C TO
-9C BY 12Z FRI AS WINDS TURN MORE NNW. THESE TEMPS STICK AROUND WITH
NNW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF FRI NIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE NW SAT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES NEARBY AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE A DEGREE OR
TWO...ALL WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SW OF THE CWA. THE HIGH
SHIFTS E LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO SHIFT ACROSS
THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP WILL START
THU EVENING EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES...AND CONTINUE
INTO SAT MORNING...ENHANCED WHEN SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND REDUCED
SOME BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES AS SHORTWAVE SFC RIDGING RESULTS. PRECIP
TYPE CHANGES FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W HALF THU NIGHT. PTYPE TURNS TO ALL SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL AND W FRI MORNING...WITH A MIX ELSEWHERE. PTYPE
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE FRI EVENING INTO SAT MORNING AS SFC
MIN TEMPS FALL BELOW TO WELL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS. PTYPE
THEN TURNS BACK TO A MIX LATE SAT MORNING...THEN MOSTLY SNOW AGAIN
SAT EVENING INTO SUN MORNING. COULD SEE SOME VERY MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
STRONG SW FLOW BRINGS WARMER CONDITIONS FOR SUN AND MON WITH A
CHANCE FOR RAIN MON OR MON NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES NEARBY. WHILE
STILL VERY UNCERTAIN...A FRONTAL MAY STALL OUT OVER OR NEAR THE CWA
MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT -SHRA AT TIMES THRU THE NIGHT...BUT THE SHRA WILL
DIMINISH W TO E TODAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS AND CYCLONIC FLOW
EASES. INCOMING PRES RISE MAX WILL AID GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL WHERE WINDS SHOULD GUST
TO 30KT OR SO. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTN AS PRES
GRADIENT SLACKENS. WITH THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA TODAY...MVFR CIGS
MAY HOLD ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE THIS
AFTN AT KIWD AND THEN THIS EVENING AT KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
EXPECT WIDESPREAD NW GALES TO 35 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE W HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER THE E HALF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT/ARRIVAL OF SHARPER PRES GRADIENT.
THESE GALES WILL THEN DIMINISH W-E ON TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A HI
PRES RDG/WEAKER GRADIENT. A TYPICAL FALL PATTERN WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH PASSAGE OF SEVERAL LO PRES TROUGHS.
SHIFTING WINDS WILL BE UP TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS AND SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WOULD BE
ON THU NIGHT-FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPER TROUGH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ240>247-263-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
119 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHRTWV
ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER MOVING TO THE E...BRINGING 00Z-12Z H5
HGT FALLS UP TO 240M AT INL. DESPITE THE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ATTENDANT COLD FNT MOVING THRU THE
ERN CWA EARLY THIS AFTN IS PCPN FREE DUE TO DRYNESS OF THE MID LVLS
SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB. SKIES HAVE TURNED MOSUNNY FOLLOWING THE
COLD FROPA UNDER DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...BUT AREA OF DEEPER
MSTR DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND ASSOCIATED SECOND COLD
FNT MOVING THRU MN ARE BRINGING MORE CLDS TO THE W HALF AS
WELL AS SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN LK SUP/NW WI. WSW WINDS HAVE
BEEN GUSTING AS HI AS 30 TO 35 MPH AT SOME PLACES IN WI/WRN UPR MI
THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SECOND COLD FNT...BUT STRONGER NW WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSVD BEHIND THE SECOND FNT IN WRN MN/THE NRN
PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINDS/NEED FOR WIND
ADVYS AS WELL AS LAKE ENHANCED POPS.
TNGT...SHRTWV MOVING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SLOWLY ESEWD OVER THE NE HALF OF LK SUP THIS EVNG. ALTHOUGH THE
SHARPER DYANMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WL SLIDE TO
THE N OF UPR MI...BACKWASH MSTR/SHARP CYC FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF
SFC LO AND ATTENDANT SECOND COLD FNT WL BRING SOME SHOWERS W-E LATE
THIS AFTN/EVNG. AS SHARPER CYC NNW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND H85
TEMPS SLOWLY COOL BEHIND THE FROPA...SCT TO NMRS LK ENHANCED SHOWERS
WL LINGER DOWNWIND OF LK SUP UNDER THE DEEP MSTR IN SPITE OF LARGER
SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV.
THE PRES GRADIENT/H925 WINDS SPEEDS ARE FCST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY WITH
TIME THRU THE NGT...SO WINDS OVER UPR MI WL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
50 MPH GUSTS OBSVD UPSTREAM. THE CAA BEHIND THE FROPA AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND THE FNT ARE ALSO FCST TO BE MODERATE...BUT
OPTED TO RETAIN GOING WIND ADVY FOR THE KEWEENAW GIVEN FAVORABLE
EXPOSURE AND APRCH OF PRES RISE CENTER/STRONGER ISALLOBARIC WIND
AIMED AT THAT AREA IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
TUE...SHARP PRES GRADIENT AND RIBBON OF STRONGER H925 NW WINDS UP
TO 35 KTS ARE FCST TO BE OVER UPR MI AT 12Z TUE. FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE TRAILING/WEAKENING PRES RISE CENTER BY 18Z...THE PRES
GRADIENT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH. CONSIDERED A WIND ADVY FOR THE MORE
EXPOSED ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES...BUT OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ATTM GIVEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES RISE CENTER/GRADIENT AND MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THIS
AREA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WL PERSIST THRU THE DAY...THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF PRES RISE CENTER AT 18Z.
UPR MI WL REMAIN UNDER H85 THERMAL TROF WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO
AS ABOUT -2C IN LLVL NW FLOW AHEAD OF HI PRES MOVING INTO MN...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLDS TO LINGER EVEN IF THE SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISHES
WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE/WEAKENING CYC FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. WITH THE CLDS AND H85 THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
TEMPS TO RISE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE DEGREES FM THE MRNG LOWS. TUE WL
FEEL MUCH MORE AUTUMNAL THAN RECENT DAYS EVEN IF THE WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH IN THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD (TUESDAY
NIGHT)...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A POCKET OF 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -1 TO -2C OVER THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT
THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/CLOUDS (LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS IN THE LOWER
50S) TO CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT BELTS IN THE
EVENING EAST AND THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT OVER THE EAST...BUT THE WEST AND AREAS NEAR THE WISCONSIN
BORDER SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING. THAT CLEARING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOWARDS FREEZING. THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH OR MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...THE
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL STAY PRIMIARLY OVER
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS MOISTURE STARVED...BUT THERE SHOULD
BE SOME CLOUDS BRUSHING THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER TOWARDS LUCE COUNTY. A MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA) WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. AS THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN AND LOWER
MICHIGAN...IT WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
(STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION) AND QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY
FRIDAY. IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION AS THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH (BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE STAYS TO THE SOUTH)...BUT IT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THAT COLDER AIR (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
-6 TO -9C BY FRIDAY NIGHT) AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. THE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND AREAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND THIRD
SHORTWAVE. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND ALLOW WARMER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE DIURNAL DISRUPTION TO
THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITAION AND AIDED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING/DRYING AHEAD OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR SURGING IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A MIX OR CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW FOR AREAS OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL U.P..
PRECIPITATION TYPE ON FRIDAY LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE
ARRIVIAL OF THE COLDEST AIR (WITH THE 00Z ECMWF TRAILING THE 12Z
GFS BY AROUND 6HRS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT). THAT
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR WOULD PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW TO REMAIN MIXED IN WITH RAIN OVER THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY DUE TO 1000-850MB THICKNESSES (FALLING
BELOW 1300)...CLOUD MOVING INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AND WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS (FALLING BELOW 700FT). HAVE SHOWN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITIONED TO ALL SNOW HEADING INTO THE FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACCUMULATION ON
GRASSY/LEAF COVERED SURFACES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
AND NORTH CENTRAL ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BACKING WINDS SUNDAY AND FLOW BECOMING ZONAL ALOFT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING A BROAD LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT
SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE POSITION OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE BOTH TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT BOTH ARE CONSISTENT IN IT
BEING VERY NEAR THE U.P..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT -SHRA AT TIMES THRU THE NIGHT...BUT THE SHRA WILL
DIMINISH W TO E TODAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS AND CYCLONIC FLOW
EASES. INCOMING PRES RISE MAX WILL AID GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL WHERE WINDS SHOULD GUST
TO 30KT OR SO. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTN AS PRES
GRADIENT SLACKENS. WITH THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA TODAY...MVFR CIGS
MAY HOLD ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE THIS
AFTN AT KIWD AND THEN THIS EVENING AT KCMX/KSAW. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
EXPECT WIDESPREAD NW GALES TO 35 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE W HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER THE E HALF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT/ARRIVAL OF SHARPER PRES GRADIENT.
THESE GALES WILL THEN DIMINISH W-E ON TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A HI
PRES RDG/WEAKER GRADIENT. A TYPICAL FALL PATTERN WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH PASSAGE OF SEVERAL LO PRES TROUGHS.
SHIFTING WINDS WILL BE UP TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS AND SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WOULD BE
ON THU NIGHT-FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPER TROUGH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ244>247-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ240>243-263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
807 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
A WEAK SFC TROF WAS JUST MOVING INTO NW WI AT 01Z. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS PERSISTED WITH THE TROF. MOSTLY CLEAR BEHIND THE TROF.
THE HRRR IS NOT DOING A VERY GOOD JOB ATTM AS IT CONTINUES TO
GENERATE SHOWERS WHERE THE MID CLOUDS ARE IN NW WI. NAM12/RAP KEEPS
THE AREA DRY THROUGH 12Z. THE ARW/NMM IS LEANING THIS WAY BUT
ATTEMPTS TO BRING IN SOME SHOWERS TO LAKE COUNTY AFTER 09Z. WILL
FOLLOW THE DRY APPROACH AND HAVE REMOVED POPS TONIGHT. ALSO LOWERED
THEM A BIT THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MAINTAINED THE POPS THE REST OF
THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL
REACH NORTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
DROP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING FALLING OR
STEADY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-30 KTS.
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AIR MASS TOMORROW.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT H85 TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING BEGIN IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS...FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND BY THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...H50 READINGS APPROACHING
NEGATIVE 30C WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SHOWERS.
LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPE IN THE SATURATED
LAYER ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. ALTHOUGH MINIMAL...ITS ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT... CONTINUING TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE SLIDING EASTWARD SUNDAY. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS... SFC HIGH FROM SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE ALSO MOVING EASTWARD TO THE
APPALACHIANS. THE COMBINATION BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING
IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE NORTHLAND... SETTING THE STAGE
FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS SEASON... WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 20S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND... AND AROUND
FREEZING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS 850 MB
TEMPS PEGGED AROUND -6C TO -10C FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THIS MAY BE THE FIRST HARD FREEZE FOR MANY
LAKESIDE AREAS. IN ADDITION... A DISTURBANCE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
THE UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT RAIN THE THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT... AND WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE IRON RANGE
AND NORTHERN ARROWHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT.... AND ACROSS THE GOGEBIC
MOUNTAINS. THE COLD AIRMASS WILL LINGER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S EXPECTED... BUT A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY... TAKING THE COLD AIR WITH
IT... BRINGING BACK HIGHS IN THE 50S.
IN THE EXTENDED... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING BACK AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AS A DISTURBANCE BRINGS
RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON... AND A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
TUESDAY COOLING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
A WEAK SFC TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH MN AT 23Z. JUST SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED THE TROF. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE TERMINALS ON THURSDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SFC WINDS WITH THE FRONT
AND SOME SHOWERS NEAR INL. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS
UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE A VCSH AT DLH/HIB. VFR IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE FORECAST...EVEN WITH FROPA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 39 54 29 41 / 0 20 10 0
INL 37 49 25 39 / 0 50 10 0
BRD 39 54 29 43 / 0 10 0 0
HYR 37 55 29 42 / 0 20 10 10
ASX 40 55 31 43 / 0 30 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
901 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THE LAST DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FADE
AWAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. AS THIS HAPPENS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SECOND SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME ADDITIONAL COOLING.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY SHOWED UP IN PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA TO WHERE ONE COULD AT LEAST GET THE IDEA
SOME SORT OF STORM SYSTEM MAY BE ON THE WAY. HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPS
AGAIN BROKE RECORDS FOR THE DATE AT TWO LOCATIONS - KINGMAN AND
NEEDLES. AS FAR AS THE VERY WARM HIGHS, THIS IS DONE AFTER TODAY AS
CLOUD COVER WILL BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO KNOCK READINGS DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA A FEW DEGREES.
WHAT REMAINS A BIG QUESTION OVERNIGHT IS HOW QUICKLY DO WE MOISTEN
UP THE MIDDLE AND LOWER LEVELS AND DOES PRECIP MAKE IT TO THE
SURFACE AND IF SO HOW FAR EAST. THE HRRR MODEL GETS EXCITED ABOUT NW
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY LATER TONIGHT AND GIVEN THAT AREA IS CLOSER TO
THE LOW THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER, THE WETTER GFS STILL INSISTS
ON SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK OR EARLIER AS FAR EAST AS THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS, I SUSPECT THE
CURRENT POP GRIDS MAY BE OVERDONE TOO MUCH, TOO FAR EAST. HOWEVER,
SOMETIMES WE MOISTEN UP QUICKER THAN EXPECTED SO FOR NOW, I WILL LET
THINGS RIDE AS IS.
&&
.PREVIOUS UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIRES MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING UP SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW AND EVENTUALLY WORKING
NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS
DYNAMIC AS THE ONE LAST WEEK WE COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW ESPECIALLY OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHICH
WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW CENTER. THE MODELS INDICATING LI VALUES OF
0/-3 AND CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 400 J/KG OVER WESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A MORE SCATTERED
TYPE RAIN SCENARIO AND NOT A WIDESPREAD EVENT SO SOME AREAS MAY ONLY
SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THIS ENTIRE AREA WILL SPREAD EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AGAIN QPF AMOUNTS
DON`T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE...BUT TOTAL PRECIP TOTALS AROUND A TENTH
TO A QUARTER INCH LOOK POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VALLEYS
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO AND AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER WITH THE AREAS
SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SAN
BERNARDINO...CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AROUND 5-7 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...ABOVE 10000 FEET AS VERY
LITTLE COLD AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVED INLAND DURING THE SHORT TERM.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PRIME THE AIRMASS FOR THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING UPSTREAM...WITH ABNORMALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FORECAST. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY PROGGED BETWEEN
0.75 TO 1 INCH ACROSS MOST AREAS...WHICH IS 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER. FOR SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY TO BE MORE NUMEROUS OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN VALLEY LOCALES.
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE IN A LOBE OF VORTICITY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
SPLITTING THE POLAR JET AS IT SWINGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS ENERGY WILL ACT UPON ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A DRYING TREND
ENSUING THEREAFTER. LOOKING CLOSER AT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE PAST SEVERAL OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...BOTH MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A FLATTER/LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH. AS A
RESULT...ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR. SNOW LEVELS ARE NOW GENERALLY RUNNING BETWEEN
9500-10000 FEET AT THEIR LOWEST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...UP FROM 8500-9000 FEET IN LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS.
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO EXIST
REGARDING THE TROUGH EXITING THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
RUNNING ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT A MENTION OF
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AS A RESULT. NONETHELESS...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME ON TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE AREA OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY WARM BACK UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BY EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS AFTER
12Z. CIGS IN THE 10-15K RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SHOWERS WORKING INTO THE VICINITY. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL EXIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD AFTER 12Z. TRAFFIC CORRIDORS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL
MOST LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION AT TIMES. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BECOMING NORTH AT 8-12 KTS.
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD IS LOW-MODERATE.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FAVORING
DIURNAL TRENDS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BREAK OUT ACROSS EASTERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA BY EARLY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER POSSIBLE AS WELL. POCKETS OF CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE AND ICING
CAN BE EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AREA WIDE THURSDAY...WITH CIGS IN THE 10-15K MSL EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR
LAS VEGAS EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DATE VALUE/YEAR
-----------------------------
10/15 70/1950
10/16 66/2010*
10/17 67/1991
* TIE FROM PREVIOUS YEARS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...GORELOW
LONG TERM...PIERCE
AVIATION...OUTLER
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
304 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
..NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT....CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS NC FROM THE WEST...SO
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH
WITH THE FRONT. THE RAP SUGGESTS A 00Z TO 06Z FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
IT QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE SHALLOW AND COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL BE DELAYED BY THE MOUNTAINS. PREFER OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...REINFORCED BY A SHORTWAVE AND JET DIVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT....WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. A MUCH
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION...YIELD
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BASED ON THICKNESSES
AROUND 1365M. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST TOWARD THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT....WITH THE BEST DECOUPLING POTENTIAL OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...WHERE LOWS COULD APPROACH 40 IN RURAL/COOL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM TUESDAY..
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN (WESTERN NOAM RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH) THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION TO A LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE ZONAL
ONE THROUGH EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS WILL CONSEQUENTLY BACK TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE MERELY IN THE FORM OF
INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS BY TUE-WED.
THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD BE A DRY ONE OWING TO THE PREVALENCE OF A
PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS --THE FIRST OF PACIFIC/MILD ORIGIN THU-FRI AND
THE SECOND OF POLAR ORIGIN SAT-ONWARD-- THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL BE
USHERED IN BY A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT SCHEDULED FOR FRI-EARLY
FRI NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE THE LATTER/POLAR ONE THAT WILL PROVIDE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON...AND A POSSIBLE
LIGHT FREEZE...OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...NEAR-OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND
PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY MON MORNING...EVEN THE
WARMEST ONES FROM RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL CYCLES...WOULD SUPPORT
LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THE COLDER SOLUTIONS
WOULD SUPPORT UPPER 20S.
ANOTHER QUESTION THAT REMAINS WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE POLAR HIGH
WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...AND CONSEQUENTLY
WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL ARRIVE IN TIME TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
CALM/OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1320 METERS WOULD SUPPORT A PRECEDING
MORNING OF AOB FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN (THE TYPICALLY-COOLER AREAS
OF) THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL NO DOUBT TURN CHILLY
(LIKELY THE COLDEST MORNING(S) SINCE APRIL 5TH)...WITH A HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE OF POTENTIALLY-DAMAGING COLD TO WARRANT A BRIEF MENTION
IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT FRI...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S...FOLLOWED BY CRISP HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S SAT-TUE (COOLEST SUN-
MON).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 20-25KT (MAINLY KFAY/KRWI) WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND A RELATIVELY GENTLE WIND SHIFT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
TOWARD THE REGION.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...CBL/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
..NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT....CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS NC FROM THE WEST...SO
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH
WITH THE FRONT. THE RAP SUGGESTS A 00Z TO 06Z FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
IT QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE SHALLOW AND COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL BE DELAYED BY THE MOUNTAINS. PREFER OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...REINFORCED BY A SHORTWAVE AND JET DIVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT....WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. A MUCH
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION...YIELD
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BASED ON THICKNESSES
AROUND 1365M. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST TOWARD THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT....WITH THE BEST DECOUPLING POTENTIAL OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...WHERE LOWS COULD APPROACH 40 IN RURAL/COOL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
THE ONLY REAL THING OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE
THE CHANCE OF A LIGHT FROST FOR SOME OF THE PIEDMONT BY EITHER
SUNDAY OR MONDAY MORNING WHEN LOWS MAY TANK INTO THE MID 30S.
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING IN THIS OCCURRENCE. HOWEVER... THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A "FIRST FREEZE" OR A KILLING FROST AT THIS TIME.
YET... IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF OUR COLDEST AREAS MAY TOUCH 32 SUCH
AS ROXBORO. MORE ON THIS IN LATER FORECASTS THIS WEEK.
THIS IS ACTUALLY THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TIME FOR THE FIRST LIGHT FROSTS
FOR OUR REGION.
OTHERWISE... IT SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AS
HIGHS SHOULD REACH 70-75 WITH THE SW BREEZE. SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY
AND COOL WITH HIGH 60-65 BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE "DOWN
RIGHT CHILLY" SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 SE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING UNDER THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. BY
MONDAY... HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO AROUND 60 WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 20-25KT (MAINLY KFAY/KRWI) WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND A RELATIVELY GENTLE WIND SHIFT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
TOWARD THE REGION.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
..NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM TUESDAY...
THE PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED AND WE ARE JUST LEFT WITH A NARROW
BAND MID CLOUDS CROSSING THE PIEDMONT. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...60-
120M...GIVE JUST A GLANCING BLOW TODAY AS THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND PRIMARY COLD FRONT...WHICH STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL OHIO TO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AT 13Z...APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MERGING WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND THEN CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WITH VERY
LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE AND MLCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG (AND FOCUSED WELL
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN)...THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXPECTED. AS
THE BAND OF MID CLOUDS MOVES EAST...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SHOULD GUST TO 20-25KT IN THE EAST BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS WITH HIGHS
EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS. -22
SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL CAA
SUPPORTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION...REINFORCING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL PROVE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WITH
LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS OWING TO DRY PWAT
AIRMASS(~0.50")IN PLACE. WEAK/MODEST DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEDNEDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN
SLOWLY FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
45-50...COOLEST NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
THE ONLY REAL THING OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE
THE CHANCE OF A LIGHT FROST FOR SOME OF THE PIEDMONT BY EITHER
SUNDAY OR MONDAY MORNING WHEN LOWS MAY TANK INTO THE MID 30S.
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING IN THIS OCCURRENCE. HOWEVER... THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A "FIRST FREEZE" OR A KILLING FROST AT THIS TIME.
YET... IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF OUR COLDEST AREAS MAY TOUCH 32 SUCH
AS ROXBORO. MORE ON THIS IN LATER FORECASTS THIS WEEK.
THIS IS ACTUALLY THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TIME FOR THE FIRST LIGHT FROSTS
FOR OUR REGION.
OTHERWISE... IT SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AS
HIGHS SHOULD REACH 70-75 WITH THE SW BREEZE. SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY
AND COOL WITH HIGH 60-65 BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE "DOWN
RIGHT CHILLY" SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 SE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING UNDER THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. BY
MONDAY... HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO AROUND 60 WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 20-25KT (MAINLY KFAY/KRWI) WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND A RELATIVELY GENTLE WIND SHIFT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
TOWARD THE REGION.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/22
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1005 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
..NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM TUESDAY...
THE PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED AND WE ARE JUST LEFT WITH A NARROW
BAND MID CLOUDS CROSSING THE PIEDMONT. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...60-
120M...GIVE JUST A GLANCING BLOW TODAY AS THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND PRIMARY COLD FRONT...WHICH STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL OHIO TO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AT 13Z...APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MERGING WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND THEN CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WITH VERY
LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE AND MLCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG (AND FOCUSED WELL
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN)...THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXPECTED. AS
THE BAND OF MID CLOUDS MOVES EAST...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SHOULD GUST TO 20-25KT IN THE EAST BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS WITH HIGHS
EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS. -22
SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL CAA
SUPPORTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION...REINFORCING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL PROVE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WITH
LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS OWING TO DRY PWAT
AIRMASS(~0.50")IN PLACE. WEAK/MODEST DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEDNEDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN
SLOWLY FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
45-50...COOLEST NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
THE ONLY REAL THING OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE
THE CHANCE OF A LIGHT FROST FOR SOME OF THE PIEDMONT BY EITHER
SUNDAY OR MONDAY MORNING WHEN LOWS MAY TANK INTO THE MID 30S.
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING IN THIS OCCURRENCE. HOWEVER... THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A "FIRST FREEZE" OR A KILLING FROST AT THIS TIME.
YET... IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF OUR COLDEST AREAS MAY TOUCH 32 SUCH
AS ROXBORO. MORE ON THIS IN LATER FORECASTS THIS WEEK.
THIS IS ACTUALLY THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TIME FOR THE FIRST LIGHT FROSTS
FOR OUR REGION.
OTHERWISE... IT SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AS
HIGHS SHOULD REACH 70-75 WITH THE SW BREEZE. SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY
AND COOL WITH HIGH 60-65 BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE "DOWN
RIGHT CHILLY" SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 SE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING UNDER THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. BY
MONDAY... HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO AROUND 60 WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD AS A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS FALLEN APART
EAST OF THE MTNS.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT RANGE... WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO
25KTS RANGE...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS (KRWI AND KFAY). WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE AND WILL NWLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SECURE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/22
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
201 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FIRST COLD FRONT WITH DRIER AIR NOW NEAR INTERSTATE 75 WITH PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH NEAR MFD. THREAT FOR SHRA WILL END WITH FROPA AS IT
WORKS EAST ACROSS THE CWA THRU THE NIGHT. INITIAL BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT WAS PROGGED BY THE HRRR AND RAP TO INCREASE
REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE PRECIP GETTING TO THE GROUND. HRRR
AND RAP NOW SHOWING MUCH LESS PRECIP AFTER REINITIALIZING WITH THE
LATEST RADAR INPUT. WILL BACK OFF POPS SOME EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTH/SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE LAND AND WESTERLY FLOW ON THE LAKE. 850MB TEMPS WILL
DROP TO AS LOW AS 1C ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SO EXPECT LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE WEST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. DID START TO
INCREASE POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS WITH DEEP
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST. AS A WHOLE THE TROUGHING WILL LEND
ITSELF TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...GENERAL CLOUDINESS...AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE SNOWBELT.
THE FIRST WAVE OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO MID AND UPPER 30S AS
H850 TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 0C. WE COULD GET COOLER DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION TO STABILIZE TEMPERATURES SOME. THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO SATURDAY AS THE O DEG C H850
ISOTHERM MIGRATES SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS COOLING
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. DEW
POINTS WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TOO AND MOST AREAS OUTSIDE
THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR. RIGHT NOW LOWS HAVE BEEN
PROGGED A DEG OR TWO COOLER YET...CLOSER TO FREEZING. IF NOT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN DEFINITELY SATURDAY NIGHT...FROST WILL FORM. FREEZES
ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN SOME OF THE COOLER SPOTS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GET GOING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THOUGH WITH VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS...RESTRICTED THE COVERAGE TO
THE AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OHIO INTO NW
PA. EXPECT VFR WITH THE SHOWERS UNTIL THEY CLEAR NW PA BY 08Z. THE
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PIVOT SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AT LEAST SOME BRIEF CLEARING AT MOST
LOCATIONS FOR A FEW HOURS. THERE MAY BE AN AREA OF CLOUDS THAT
DRIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID MORNING. CEILINGS COULD
BRIEFLY BECOME BROKEN AS THEY PASS BUT WILL REMAIN VFR. THE MAIN
SURGE OF MOISTURE THAT WILL THEN KEEP THE REGION OVERCAST ARRIVES
BY LATE MORNING WEST AND INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR POINTS EAST. AS
THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING CEILINGS MAY DIP TO
AROUND 3500 FEET...ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS ARE OFF OF LAKE ERIE.
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY. GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS WILL BE COMMON BUT COULD BE IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE NEAR
THE LAKESHORE.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY NE OH AND NW PA WED THRU SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDY TODAY. WINDIER TOMORROW. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH OF WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM THE ISLANDS EAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY
NIGHT THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE WIND BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MAYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
155 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE
VALUES. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ELONGATED MID/UPR LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO PIVOT
EAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. INITIAL S/W
EVIDENT ON WV IMGRY DIGGING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF THRU INDIANA
WITHADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY OVER THE UPR MS RIVER VLY TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN AN AXIS OF MSTR CONVERGENCE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN INITIAL COLD FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING INTO WESTERN
OHIO. PCPN IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND INITIAL FRONT TO PUSH
THRU ILN/S FA BY 06Z. DRY SLOT TO WORK INTO THE FA AND STAY FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS SECOND S/W DROPS SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...SECONDARY FRONT AND ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OVER THE UPR MS VLY
WILL DROP INTO OHIO DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT
LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON DRAGGING
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT. A VERY THIN LINE OF SHOWERS CAN BE
FOUND ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE
ILLINOIS/ INDIANA BORDER. NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW
SHOWING A BIT OF CAPE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS ALSO A LITTLE BIT MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA. FORECAST PWATS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER
NEAR 1.45". SURFACE CONVERGENCE STILL LOOKS RATHER WEAK AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE ONLY WEST WINDS
EXIST BEHIND IT. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND VORTICITY
ADVECTION HAVE BUMPED UP POPS (ESP. ACROSS EASTERN ZONES). THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST CLEARING THE CWA
(AROUND 6 OR 8 AM) WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL STILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THOUGH WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW
LOCATED JUST EAST OF MICHIGAN.
RH FIELDS IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRATOCUMULUS AND
CU MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW AND
ANOTHER WEDGE OF PVA MOVING OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO
BELOW 0.5" SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. THANKS TO THE
FORECASTED CLOUDS TUESDAY HAVE KEPT TREND OF LOWER MAX TEMPS.
WINDS COULD AGAIN BE BREEZY TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST TUESDAY EVENING
PUTTING ILN ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 850 TEMPS
REMAIN NEAR 4 DEGREES C THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TOWARDS THE NORTH AND MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAKING
FOR A COOL THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS IT DOES SOME WAA WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
PUSH UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS. IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAA...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ONLY IN THE 50S. FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO OVERHEAD BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE.
SOME IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVELS HAVE BECOME SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ALONG WITH
THE FRONT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR.
FOR LATER TODAY...A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
ROTATING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH WILL TEAM UP WITH 850 MB
MOISTURE/COLD POOL ALOFT TO BRING CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD RANGE
BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FEET. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP 25 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT...AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT IS WEAKLY
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY A TROUGH AXIS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
850 MB MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE KCMH/KLCK TERMINALS...SO HAVE HELD ON TO BKN CEILINGS
BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FEET FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PORTLAND OR
1203 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 2015
UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION AND WWA SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTH OREGON COAST TONIGHT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOG DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
TUESDAY AND MAINTAIN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY...THOUGH SOME LOCAL MORNING FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...SATELLITE SHOWS STALLED FRONT HANGING OFF THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWS WEAK
RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHILE RAIN GAUGES HAVE AROUND 0.10
INCH IN PART OF SW WASHINGTON. THERE IS ALSO SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE
ASTORIA AREA BUT IN TILLAMOOK IT IS ALREADY CLEAR. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING
FURTHER INLAND NOT PASSING THE COAST RANGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA EXPECT RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER
SOME CLOUDS MAY REACH THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND INTERIOR OF SW
WASHINGTON LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LAST FEW POCKETS OF THIS MORNINGS DENSE FOG DISSIPATING
OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A SWATH OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
REMAINS FIXATED ON SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...BUT THE MAIN RAIN BAND IS
SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BORDER. 12Z MODELS SHOW SOME
PRECIP TRICKLING DOWN NEAR ASTORIA LATER THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND AND DISSIPATES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TOTAL
ACCUM PRECIP FOR THIS FRONTAL BAND IS AROUND 0.10" FOR FAR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF FOG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
COAST AND VALLEY AS LIGHT SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING
DRY...SUNNY...AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO STAY ABOVE OUR NORMAL 60-65 DEG THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...WITH INLAND HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS THERMAL TROUGHING
PUSHES NORTH...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. /27
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...KEEPING WIDESPREAD DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS
UNDER EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WHICH
REACHES OUR COASTLINE EARLY SATURDAY. ENJOY FRIDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE THE LAST SUNNY...DRY...WARM DAY BEFORE WET CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN PUSH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT LIGHT RAIN UNDER ONSHORE FLOW TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD HINT AT A DRYING TREND FOR SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR PRECIP BY NEXT MONDAY...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE OVERALL STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM. WENT MORE TOWARDS CLIMO POP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH 25-35% POP EXPECTED. /27
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. DISSIPATING FRONT
HAS BROUGHT IFR CIGS AND VIS TO KAST WITH -RA. CIGS AND VIS
COULD LOWER TO LIFR WITH CONTINUED -RA OR -DZ EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE CLOUDS FROM THIS FRONT MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
FAR NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...KEEPING FOG PATCHY IN THIS
AREA. STRATUS FROM THIS FRONT MOVES IN AROUND 4500 FT AND COULD
LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 2500 FT TUESDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH
EXPECT LESS FOG THAN LAST NIGHT AS CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE DRIER.
KSLE AND KEUG COULD STILL SEE FOG BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO
IFR/LIFR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST THE DISSIPATING FRONT APPROACHING MAY ALLOW
SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE...BUT WINDS
ALONG THE COAST IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO TURN OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT WHICH WILL TRY TO KEEP THIS FOG OR LOW STRATUS OFF THE
COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS MAY PROVE TO BE TOO WEAK...WHICH WOULD BRING
LIFR CIGS AND VIS TO KONP LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN
AROUND 4500 FT. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE CIGS COULD LOWER DOWN
TO 2500 FT AROUND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 18Z
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. -MCCOY
&&
.MARINE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AS SEAS AT BUOY 89 ARE COMING
IN AROUND 14 FT AT 13 SECONDS UNDER A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL. THIS
IS RUNNING ABOUT 3 FEET HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. STANDARD DECAY RATE
WILL ONLY SEE THEM DROP AROUND A FOOT FOR THE INNER WATERS. STILL
NOT SEEING THE SAME INCREASE AT BUOY 50 WHERE SEAS ARE AT 9
FEET 12 SECONDS BUT DO EXPECT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE
TO PUSH SEAS TO 10 FT FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS FOR A TIME AS WELL.
AS SUCH...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR SEAS THERE UNTIL 4 AM.
REMAINDER OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /JBONK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THIS
DISSIPATING FRONT ON TUESDAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO A THERMAL LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
BRINGS BACK GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY EVENING
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS STAY UP AROUND 7 TO 9 FT BUT COULD
BECOME STEEP WITH MORE WIND DRIVEN SEAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KT UNTIL EARLY
SATURDAY WHEN THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO OUR WATERS. SEAS MAY FALL
BACK DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE WINDS START
TO BUILD SEAS BACK UP OVER THE WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
PDT TUESDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
936 PM PDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTH OREGON COAST TONIGHT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOG DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
TUESDAY AND MAINTAIN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY...THOUGH SOME LOCAL MORNING FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...SATELLITE SHOWS STALLED FRONT HANGING OFF THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWS WEAK
RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHILE RAIN GAUGES HAVE AROUND 0.10
INCH IN PART OF SW WASHINGTON. THERE IS ALSO SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE
ASTORIA AREA BUT IN TILLAMOOK IT IS ALREADY CLEAR. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING
FURTHER INLAND NOT PASSING THE COAST RANGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA EXPECT RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER
SOME CLOUDS MAY REACH THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND INTERIOR OF SW
WASHINGTON LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LAST FEW POCKETS OF THIS MORNINGS DENSE FOG DISSIPATING
OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A SWATH OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
REMAINS FIXATED ON SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...BUT THE MAIN RAIN BAND IS
SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BORDER. 12Z MODELS SHOW SOME
PRECIP TRICKLING DOWN NEAR ASTORIA LATER THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND AND DISSIPATES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TOTAL
ACCUM PRECIP FOR THIS FRONTAL BAND IS AROUND 0.10" FOR FAR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF FOG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
COAST AND VALLEY AS LIGHT SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING
DRY...SUNNY...AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO STAY ABOVE OUR NORMAL 60-65 DEG THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...WITH INLAND HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS THERMAL TROUGHING
PUSHES NORTH...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. /27
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...KEEPING WIDESPREAD DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS
UNDER EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WHICH
REACHES OUR COASTLINE EARLY SATURDAY. ENJOY FRIDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE THE LAST SUNNY...DRY...WARM DAY BEFORE WET CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN PUSH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT LIGHT RAIN UNDER ONSHORE FLOW TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD HINT AT A DRYING TREND FOR SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR PRECIP BY NEXT MONDAY...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE OVERALL STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM. WENT MORE TOWARDS CLIMO POP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH 25-35% POP EXPECTED. /27
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. DISSIPATING FRONT
HAS BROUGHT IFR CIGS AND VIS TO KAST WITH -RA. CIGS AND VIS
COULD LOWER TO LIFR WITH CONTINUED -RA OR -DZ EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE CLOUDS FROM THIS FRONT MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
FAR NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...KEEPING FOG PATCHY IN THIS
AREA. STRATUS FROM THIS FRONT MOVES IN AROUND 4500 FT AND COULD
LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 2500 FT TUESDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH
EXPECT LESS FOG THAN LAST NIGHT AS CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE DRIER.
KSLE AND KEUG COULD STILL SEE FOG BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO
IFR/LIFR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST THE DISSIPATING FRONT APPROACHING MAY ALLOW
SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE...BUT WINDS
ALONG THE COAST IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO TURN OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT WHICH WILL TRY TO KEEP THIS FOG OR LOW STRATUS OFF THE
COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS MAY PROVE TO BE TOO WEAK...WHICH WOULD BRING
LIFR CIGS AND VIS TO KONP LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN
AROUND 4500 FT. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE CIGS COULD LOWER DOWN
TO 2500 FT AROUND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 18Z
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. -MCCOY
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 KT SO HAVE ALLOWED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO EXPIRE. SEAS ARE UP AROUND 9 TO
12 FT ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH LOWER SEAS IN THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS LIKELY TO BUILD CLOSER TO 10 FT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
THEREFORE...KEEPING SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OUT ACROSS THE
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THIS
DISSIPATING FRONT ON TUESDAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO A THERMAL LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
BRINGS BACK GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY EVENING
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS STAY UP AROUND 7 TO 9 FT BUT COULD
BECOME STEEP WITH MORE WIND DRIVEN SEAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KT UNTIL EARLY
SATURDAY WHEN THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO OUR WATERS. SEAS MAY FALL
BACK DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE WINDS START
TO BUILD SEAS BACK UP OVER THE WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM
TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
858 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS
EVENING. MODELS PROG FOG TO DVLP ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS
ALOFT AND LIGHT SFC WINDS. OTHERWISE QUIET WX IS IN STORE THROUGH
THU. FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
FOG/LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP ACROSS S TX OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD
THU MORNING LEADING TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 16...WITH ALI AND VCT EXPECTED TO HAVE THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS. LRD AND CRP ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THU MORNING. BY MID MORNING THU...MOST AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT VFR WITH POSSIBLY RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS LINGERING
UNTIL LATE MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP WEATHER PATTERN QUIET AND
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S HAS PUSHED INTO THE REGION NORTH OF A
COTULLA TO CORPUS CHRISTI LINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PUSH IN HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FOR TONIGHT. SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS GOOD
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA AREA AS 12Z NAM AND
LATEST RAP MODELS INDICATE. WILL SHOW AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR INLAND COASTAL PLAINS.
EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SURFACE-85H LAYER INTO THE COASTAL BEND THURSDAY. LEANED TOWARD
THE COOLER NAM FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY. RADIATIONAL FOG
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER INLAND AREAS AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE RETURN FINALLY RESUMES THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND
OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL BEND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DISCREPANCIES AS YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR A DAY 7 AND 8
FORECAST...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE AND GENERALLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC
FLOW WARRANT MENTION ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
INFLOW LOOKS TO BE STRONGER.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS SHOULD ACT TO REDUCE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...BUT EXPECT OVERALL TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 90 71 91 69 / 0 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 61 91 65 91 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 71 93 71 93 66 / 0 10 10 0 0
ALICE 67 92 67 93 66 / 0 10 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 71 88 72 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 64 93 65 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 67 91 68 92 67 / 0 10 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 73 88 74 88 74 / 0 10 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
630 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
FOG/LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP ACROSS S TX OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD
THU MORNING LEADING TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 16...WITH ALI AND VCT EXPECTED TO HAVE THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS. LRD AND CRP ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS EARLY THU MORNING. BY MID MORNING THU...MOST AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT VFR WITH POSSIBLY RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS LINGERING
UNTIL LATE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP WEATHER PATTERN QUIET AND
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S HAS PUSHED INTO THE REGION NORTH OF A
COTULLA TO CORPUS CHRISTI LINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PUSH IN HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FOR TONIGHT. SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS GOOD
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA AREA AS 12Z NAM AND
LATEST RAP MODELS INDICATE. WILL SHOW AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR INLAND COASTAL PLAINS.
EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SURFACE-85H LAYER INTO THE COASTAL BEND THURSDAY. LEANED TOWARD
THE COOLER NAM FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY. RADIATIONAL FOG
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER INLAND AREAS AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE RETURN FINALLY RESUMES THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND
OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL BEND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DISCREPANCIES AS YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR A DAY 7 AND 8
FORECAST...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE AND GENERALLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC
FLOW WARRANT MENTION ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
INFLOW LOOKS TO BE STRONGER.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS SHOULD ACT TO REDUCE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...BUT EXPECT OVERALL TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 90 71 91 69 / 0 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 61 91 65 91 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 71 93 71 93 66 / 0 10 10 0 0
ALICE 67 92 67 93 66 / 0 10 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 71 88 72 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 64 93 65 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 67 91 68 92 67 / 0 10 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 73 88 74 88 74 / 0 10 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...COULD HAVE SOME BRIEF FOG BEFORE 15Z MAINLY AT KVCT
BUT ELSEWEHRE LOOKS LIKE THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PRECLUDE THIS.
COULD ALSO HAVE SOME IFR CIGS AT KALI AND KVCT BEFORE CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR BY 18Z TOPS (KLRD WILL BE VFR).
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KVCT BEFORE 15Z...THEN AFTER 15Z KCRP
(VCTS) WITH A TEMPO THUNDER AS COULD HAVE SOME ACTIVITY PROXIMATE
ENOUGH TO NEED A MENTION OF THUNDER. WILL ALSO MENTION VCTS AT
KALI AFTER 18Z...BUT NO TEMPO AS CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. GENERALLY
LIGHT NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY THEN GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT
AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY PRETTY MUCH WASHES OUT.
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT KCRP AND KALI WHERE
MOISTURE DOES NOT GET SCOURED OUT (HAVE IFR BR AFTER 14/06Z). TOO
DRY AT KLRD AND KVCT TO MENTION FOG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY...ALSO A QUESTION OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WHICH COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AS THERE LIKELY WILL BE A GOOD
GRADIENT SINCE DEW POINT SPREAD WILL BE PRETTY GOOD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. FIRST THE RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS STILL ROBUST ON RAIN
CHANCES TODAY...WHILE 4 KM MODELS HAVE RECENTLY BACKED OFF A BIT
ON THE RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER MOST RECENT HRRR IS HAVING MORE
CONVECTION ON ITS 06Z RUN (ALTHOUGH IT CAN HAVE A TENDENCY TO
OVER-FORECAST RAIN). HAVE DECIDED TO GO THE DISTANCE AND PRETTY
MUCH KEEP THE POPS THAT WE HAVE GOING. RAIN MAY MAINLY BE LIGHT
AND THUNDER MAY BE LIMITED TO THE GULF WATERS WHERE THE CAP/CIN IS
WEAKEST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER MAINLY OUT WEST...AND
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIMILAR IF NOT WARMER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE EAST TODAY. HAVE DECIDED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT
BE A BIT MORE ON THE WARM SIDE WEST AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
EASTERN AREAS. FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD EITHER BE OVER OR
SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND DID NOT MENTION ANY RAINFALL. COULD HAVE
SOME FOG OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF DEW POINTS
REMAIN HOW. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW. A GOOD RANGE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS NEAR 60 OVER THE VICTORIA AREA TO MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST AND LAREDO AREA. SHOULD HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. REMAINING
WARM...WITH 90S MOST INLAND AREAS. MAY HAVE A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
FOR A TIME TODAY BUT OVERALL BY TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION LIKELY TO GET GOING
LATER TODAY OVER THE GULF WATERS AS WEAK BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE ZONE
MOVES IN WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LITTLE TO NO CAP IN PLACE. WINDS
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. A GENERALLY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE ON
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER WEAK RIDGING....WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW DUE TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. MID LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS
THROUGH THE WEEK AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW ROUNDS BACK TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY...SLOWLY MOVING FARTHER EAST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS AN OPEN WAVE BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LOWERING 1000-500 THICKNESS HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE RELATIVELY COOLER INTO THE UPPER
80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...YET STILL REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S DUE
TO THE DRY AIR MASS...LEADING TO GREATER DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE INLAND LOCATIONS. MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES...AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT LOWS...WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 72 91 67 88 / 30 10 10 0 0
VICTORIA 93 58 91 61 89 / 30 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 96 73 96 69 93 / 10 10 0 0 0
ALICE 96 70 95 65 91 / 20 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 89 70 88 69 87 / 40 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 95 65 95 63 92 / 10 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 95 71 94 65 89 / 30 10 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 88 74 88 71 86 / 40 10 10 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
349 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY...ALSO A QUESTION OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WHICH COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AS THERE LIKELY WILL BE A GOOD
GRADIENT SINCE DEW POINT SPREAD WILL BE PRETTY GOOD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. FIRST THE RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS STILL ROBUST ON RAIN
CHANCES TODAY...WHILE 4 KM MODELS HAVE RECENTLY BACKED OFF A BIT
ON THE RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER MOST RECENT HRRR IS HAVING MORE
CONVECTION ON ITS 06Z RUN (ALTHOUGH IT CAN HAVE A TENDENCY TO
OVER-FORECAST RAIN). HAVE DECIDED TO GO THE DISTANCE AND PRETTY
MUCH KEEP THE POPS THAT WE HAVE GOING. RAIN MAY MAINLY BE LIGHT
AND THUNDER MAY BE LIMITED TO THE GULF WATERS WHERE THE CAP/CIN IS
WEAKEST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER MAINLY OUT WEST...AND
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIMILAR IF NOT WARMER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE EAST TODAY. HAVE DECIDED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT
BE A BIT MORE ON THE WARM SIDE WEST AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
EASTERN AREAS. FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD EITHER BE OVER OR
SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND DID NOT MENTION ANY RAINFALL. COULD HAVE
SOME FOG OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF DEW POINTS
REMAIN HOW. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW. A GOOD RANGE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS NEAR 60 OVER THE VICTORIA AREA TO MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST AND LAREDO AREA. SHOULD HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. REMAINING
WARM...WITH 90S MOST INLAND AREAS. MAY HAVE A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
FOR A TIME TODAY BUT OVERALL BY TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION LIKELY TO GET GOING
LATER TODAY OVER THE GULF WATERS AS WEAK BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE ZONE
MOVES IN WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LITTLE TO NO CAP IN PLACE. WINDS
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. A GENERALLY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER WEAK RIDGING....WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW DUE TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. MID LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS
THROUGH THE WEEK AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW ROUNDS BACK TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY...SLOWLY MOVING FARTHER EAST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS AN OPEN WAVE BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LOWERING 1000-500 THICKNESS HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE RELATIVELY COOLER INTO THE UPPER
80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...YET STILL REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S DUE
TO THE DRY AIR MASS...LEADING TO GREATER DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE INLAND LOCATIONS. MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES...AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT LOWS...WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 72 91 67 88 / 30 10 10 0 0
VICTORIA 93 58 91 61 89 / 30 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 96 73 96 69 93 / 10 10 0 0 0
ALICE 96 70 95 65 91 / 20 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 89 70 88 69 87 / 40 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 95 65 95 63 92 / 10 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 95 71 94 65 89 / 30 10 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 88 74 88 71 86 / 40 10 10 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
142 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 944 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPED UP THE CLEARING OR DRYING
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. HIGH RESWARW-EAST...RNK
WRFARW AND HRRR KEEP THE LINGER SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...
WETTING SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CWA DEPOSITED 3-4 TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE UPPER TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT...MARION AND
RICHLANDS BOTH HAD 0.32...GLADE SPRINGS 0.42 AND SALTVILLE 0.43.
AMOUNTS WANED QUICKLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WITH AMOUNTS
CLOSER TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE EASTERN NRV AND GBV.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING AS FRONT PASSES OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT FOOTHILLS
AND EAST WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A SPRINKLE...ENVIRONMENT NO LONGER
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY CAPE TO SUSTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SOUTH FROM AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO CANADA.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
FRONT IS COMING THROUGH FRAGMENTED...THE OVERNIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE ACTUAL CHANGE
IN AIRMASS WILL TAKE PLACE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD AND WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST. AT THAT TIME...SKIES WILL CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID-UPPER 70S. THE
COOLER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO A MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE
WILL NOT BE FELT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER IN WVA TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SLIPPING
INTO THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MEAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WEST WITH
A BROAD TROF OVER THE EAST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW BUT ALL SKIRT THE AREA AS THEY SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
KEEP US IN PERSISTENT DRY...COOL...GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO SQUEEZE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN UPSLOPE FLOW
BUT WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.
BY FRIDAY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL STILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE
SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH IN PLACE FOR LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
ANOTHER SHOT OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE USHERING IN COLDER AIR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL QUITE CHILLY INDEED FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BEFORE THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WEST OF THE RIDGE...TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S EAST. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S BUT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME READINGS DOWN TO THE 30S IN
VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT MONDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR FROST...HOWEVER...MIXING
ENOUGH TO LIMIT COVERAGE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST SATURDAY
REDUCING THE WIND AND INCREASE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE CHANCES FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IS HIGH...MODERATE OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND LOW BUT NOT ZERO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WEEKEND HIGHS
WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN FRIDAY. SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 141 PM EDT TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY. SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THEN...OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...WINDS AND VISIBILITIES DURING
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID WEEK
PROMOTING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...KK/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
944 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 944 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPED UP THE CLEARING OR DRYING
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. HIGH RESWARW-EAST...RNK
WRFARW AND HRRR KEEP THE LINGER SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...
WETTING SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CWA DEPOSITED 3-4 TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE UPPER TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT...MARION AND
RICHLANDS BOTH HAD 0.32...GLADE SPRINGS 0.42 AND SALTVILLE 0.43.
AMOUNTS WANED QUICKLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WITH AMOUNTS
CLOSER TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE EASTERN NRV AND GBV.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING AS FRONT PASSES OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT FOOTHILLS
AND EAST WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A SPRINKLE...ENVIRONMENT NO LONGER
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY CAPE TO SUSTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SOUTH FROM AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO CANADA.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
FRONT IS COMING THROUGH FRAGMENTED...THE OVERNIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE ACTUAL CHANGE
IN AIRMASS WILL TAKE PLACE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD AND WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST. AT THAT TIME...SKIES WILL CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID-UPPER 70S. THE
COOLER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO A MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE
WILL NOT BE FELT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER IN WVA TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SLIPPING
INTO THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MEAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WEST WITH
A BROAD TROF OVER THE EAST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW BUT ALL SKIRT THE AREA AS THEY SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
KEEP US IN PERSISTENT DRY...COOL...GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO SQUEEZE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN UPSLOPE FLOW
BUT WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.
BY FRIDAY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL STILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE
SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH IN PLACE FOR LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
ANOTHER SHOT OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE USHERING IN COLDER AIR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL QUITE CHILLY INDEED FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BEFORE THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WEST OF THE RIDGE...TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S EAST. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S BUT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME READINGS DOWN TO THE 30S IN
VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT MONDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR FROST...HOWEVER...MIXING
ENOUGH TO LIMIT COVERAGE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST SATURDAY
REDUCING THE WIND AND INCREASE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE CHANCES FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IS HIGH...MODERATE OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND LOW BUT NOT ZERO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WEEKEND HIGHS
WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN FRIDAY. SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH CIGS 025-040.
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE LATER THIS MORNING WITH RETURN OF SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. CAN`T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR AT KBLF
THIS MORNING PER AREA OF STRATUS (CIGS 500-1KFT) OVER ERN KY/OH
WHICH MAY GET PUSHED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS STRATUS SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT
850 MILLIBARS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST LEE OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID WEEK
PROMOTING VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1034 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO THIS SURFACE
HIGH...AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS THE LOW DROPS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CLOUD TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
WESTERLY BREEZE. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME DISCUSSION WHETHER
SPRINKLES COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE
QUITE DRY BELOW 700MB. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S.
THURSDAY...MID-CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW OVER ONTARIO AND FILTER SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BECOME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. COLDER DRIER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA
ON NORTHWEST WINDS. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -8 C ACROSS THE NORTH BY
FRIDAY MORNING. DELTA T/S AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SUPPORT A LIGHT
MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS...ANY SNOW MIX WILL LIKELY BE DOWNSTREAM
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP THE LATER PERIODS STARTING FRIDAY
EVENING DRY AS A DRIER AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S
FILTER INTO THE AREA. TRAJECTORY MAY STILL PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN
ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER FRIDAY...BUT BIGGER ISSUES COULD BE
FORECAST TEMPS VS AMOUNT OF LAKE CLOUD PLUME DEVELOPMENT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN
STATES AND NUDGE THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL STATES FOR THE
WEEKEND FOR A PLEASANT BUT COOL WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK
WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. PROG TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THIS NEXT
WAVE AND RESULTANT NEXT PCPN CHANCES FOR LATER MONDAY. THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY AID IN SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN
TO KEEP PCPN CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
FORECAST LOW TEMPS FOR SAT MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL OF KILLING FROSTS OR FREEZE. OUTDOOR INTERESTS WILL
NEED ANTICIPATE THESE CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE GROWING
SEASON FOR THE REMAINING REGION OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
MAINLY SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. A COUPLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND A STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED...BUT SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN WI IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE TSTMS IN THE RHI TAF.
THERE COULD BE A COUPLE HOURS OF BORDERLINE LLWS CONDITIONS
AT GRB/ATW/MTW JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF
SITES...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
937 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
.UPDATE...
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOR LLWS AT ALL SITES IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. GFS INDICATES THAT WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF LLWS
CRITERIA. RAP MESO MODEL SHOWS MAINLY A 2 HOUR WINDOW MOST AREAS
WITH LLWS. SECONDARY CONCERN IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE OVER THE AREA FROM MID MORNING UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE LOWER- LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS
THE FRONT PASSES...KEEPING CIGS ABOVE 5KFT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS MAY LIMIT
ANY PRECIP VIRGA OR SPRINKLES. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR IN THE
EVENING.
&&
MARINE...
WILL COME CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WINDS MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA AND WILL BE OUT OF
THE WEST...LIMITING WAVE ACTION. LOOKS LIKE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WILL BE REACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR PUSHES IN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015/
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
DRY THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
AND COLD FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH GRADIENT WIND TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR...LIMITING THE FROST THREAT.
THE RIDGE SETTLES IN ON FRIDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS CLOSE TO 0C...THEY
STAY THERE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S...ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WE
SHOULD SEE A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S. TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL AT OR
BELOW FREEZING. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...TEMPS
RECOVER INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE PACIFIC IS VERY ACTIVE WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT
WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY INTERACT AND MERGE INTO SOME
TYPE OF CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH BY MID WEEK. THIS IS A VERY COMPLEX
PROCESS AND THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT
ON HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT. THERE IS CONSISTENCY THAT LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL KICK UP A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THE
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN
RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND WOULD EXPECT TIMING
AND POPS TO BE ADJUSTED GOING FORWARD. THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PUSH TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE MID 60S BY TUE/WED.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOR LLWS AT ALL SITES IN THE MORNING HOURS. GFS
INDICATES THAT WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF LLWS CRITERIA...BUT MOST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO LLWS UP TO 30KTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS IN THE
MORNING. SECONDARY CONCERN IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE OVER
THE AREA FROM MID MORNING UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE
LOWER-LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AS THE FRONT PASSES...KEEPING
CIGS ABOVE 5KFT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS MAY LIMIT ANY PRECIP VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING.
MARINE...
WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY FALL JUST
SHORT OF CRITERIA AND WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST...LIMITING WAVE
ACTION. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORS...DECIDED TO RE-EVALUATE
ISSUANCE AT A LATER TIME.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
625 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO THIS SURFACE
HIGH...AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS THE LOW DROPS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CLOUD TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
WESTERLY BREEZE. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME DISCUSSION WHETHER
SPRINKLES COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE
QUITE DRY BELOW 700MB. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S.
THURSDAY...MID-CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW OVER ONTARIO AND FILTER SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BECOME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. COLDER DRIER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA
ON NORTHWEST WINDS. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -8 C ACROSS THE NORTH BY
FRIDAY MORNING. DELTA T/S AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SUPPORT A LIGHT
MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS...ANY SNOW MIX WILL LIKELY BE DOWNSTREAM
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP THE LATER PERIODS STARTING FRIDAY
EVENING DRY AS A DRIER AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S
FILTER INTO THE AREA. TRAJECTORY MAY STILL PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN
ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER FRIDAY...BUT BIGGER ISSUES COULD BE
FORECAST TEMPS VS AMOUNT OF LAKE CLOUD PLUME DEVELOPMENT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN
STATES AND NUDGE THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL STATES FOR THE
WEEKEND FOR A PLEASANT BUT COOL WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK
WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. PROG TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THIS NEXT
WAVE AND RESULTANT NEXT PCPN CHANCES FOR LATER MONDAY. THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY AID IN SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN
TO KEEP PCPN CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
FORECAST LOW TEMPS FOR SAT MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL OF KILLING FROSTS OR FREEZE. OUTDOOR INTERESTS WILL
NEED ANTICIPATE THESE CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE GROWING
SEASON FOR THE REMAINING REGION OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
MAINLY SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. A COUPLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...AND A STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN WI IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HOURS
OF LLWS AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT...BUT OTHER
MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH THE WINDS ALOFT...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
TAFS. IF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MATERIALIZE...THE LLWS WOULD
OCCUR AROUND AUW/CWA BETWEEN 05Z-08Z/THU...AND AT GRB/ATW/MTW
07Z-10Z/THU. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS EXPECTED.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
600 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN ALOFT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE AIRMASS
IS GENERALLY DRY BETWEEN THE INVERSION AND 600MB...SO NO REAL THREAT
OF ANY PRECIP. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS MAKING DECENT
PROGRESS TO THE EAST OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND COULD MAKE IT INTO
PARTS OF THE ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPING AREAS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME HOLES
IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOP. AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES
EAST...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRIFT
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN
IN THE PROCESS WHILE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL INVADE FROM THE WEST.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE CLEARING TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS DEPART THE LAKE SHORE BY
EARLY OVERNIGHT...WILL HAVE A SLIGHT WEST WIND THAT SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S WEST TO
LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND ADVECT IN WARMER LOW LEVEL
AIR. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING...RAISED HIGH TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS.
A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 1033MB HIGH WILL MOVE FROM
MINNESOTA ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN TO ILLINOIS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE
REGION. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
EXPECT MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CIGS TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. BEST ESTIMATE
IS THAT THE CLEARING WILL REACH THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES BY AROUND
04Z-05Z. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN ALOFT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE AIRMASS
IS GENERALLY DRY BETWEEN THE INVERSION AND 600MB...SO NO REAL THREAT
OF ANY PRECIP. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS MAKING DECENT
PROGRESS TO THE EAST OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND COULD MAKE IT INTO
PARTS OF THE ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPING AREAS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME HOLES
IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOP. AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES
EAST...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRIFT
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN
IN THE PROCESS WHILE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL INVADE FROM THE WEST.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE CLEARING TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS DEPART THE LAKE SHORE BY
EARLY OVERNIGHT...WILL HAVE A SLIGHT WEST WIND THAT SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S WEST TO
LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND ADVECT IN WARMER LOW LEVEL
AIR. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING...RAISED HIGH TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS.
A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 1033MB HIGH WILL MOVE FROM
MINNESOTA ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN TO ILLINOIS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE
REGION. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AT
MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE MORE LIKELY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THOUGH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOULD END OVER N-C WI THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BROKEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THEN CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
242 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH EXPANSIVE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS
IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EDGING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL HELP TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN LATER TODAY TO HELP CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...LOOKING UPSTREAM WE CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS
STREAMING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SO THIS WILL
CREATE SOME ISSUES WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST TODAY. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS PRODUCING A BKN TO OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
MESOSCALE MODEL SIMULATED RADAR REFLECTIVITY PRODUCES SOME LIGHT
RETURNS. AFTER LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
PRETTY DRY BELOW 10KFT...EXCEPT FOR THE THIN BKN TO OVC STRATUS
AROUND 1500 FT. SO...WITH THE LOW EXITING TO THE EAST AND THE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES. THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR TODAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO DO SO ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN FACT...THESE AREAS MY NOT CLEAR UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUE
TO THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY. PLAN ON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS. ALSO..DEEP MIXING WILL
LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WHERE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO FALL
INTO THE 27 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. WEST/NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH AT TIMES. A TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A HARD FREEZE IS LOOKING
LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S.
ELSEWHERE ...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. WE COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES GET EVEN COLDER ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH EDGING IN.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WINDY DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS . THE GFS IS GENERATING SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSER
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE MVFR CLOUD MADE SOME GOOD EASTWARD
PROGRESS EARLY IN THE EVENING BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE SHOWING LITTLE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. BOTH THE 13.00Z NAM AND 13.03Z RAP INDICATE
THE MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE CLOUDS SHOULD SHIFT MORE SOUTHWARD
THAN EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE CLOUDS OVER
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA. THIS
WOULD CAUSE THE CEILINGS TO COME DOWN SOME MORE BUT REMAIN MVFR.
THE NAM NOW HOLDS ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER DURING TUESDAY THAN THE
12.18Z RUN BUT GIVEN THAT THE BACK EDGE IS CLOSER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...PLAN TO STAY WITH THE PREVIOUS TIMING OF CLEARING KRST
OUT LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND KLSE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE WITH THE INVERSION IN THE VALLEY
NOW KEEPING KLSE FROM GUSTING. WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEP THE GUSTS GOING AT KRST
UNTIL LATE MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
THE WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SPEEDS ARE NO LONGER IN THE ADVISORY RANGE AND THEY WILL STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THE DIMINISHING TREND. AS A
RESULT...HAVE LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/MIXING
DESPITE CLOUDINESS BRINGING 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS TO THE SURFACE.
GENERALLY 25 TO 30 SUSTAINED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...LESS
EAST. WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MN AND NORTHEAST IA. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE STAYED JUST UNDER
CRITERIA...BUT SHOULD STAY WINDY/GUSTY THROUGH AT LEAST MID/LATE
EVENING - PER RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EXTENDING
THE ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING...BUT WITH CRITERIA MOSTLY BEING
MISSED RIGHT NOW...AND PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO SEE IF AN EXTENSION WOULD
BE WARRANTED. IF SO...PROBABLY ONLY TIL 9 PM. GRADIENT SLACKENS
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT BREEZY - BUT NOT AS WINDY - CONDITIONS
INTO TUESDAY.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WERE SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTHWEST WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST...EXITING BY EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH...MOSTLY NORTH OF I-94 CORRIDOR...THOUGH 8-
9 PM OR SO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
CONSENSUS IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS IS A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW A
LOFT....WITH THE VARIOUS RIPPLES IN THE FLOW EITHER NORTH OR
MOISTURE STARVED. ONE EXCEPTION IS A SHORTWAVE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THU. SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL SATURATION AND QG CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE...WITH A SLUG OF LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING LEADING IT IN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT...WITH THE HIGHER THREAT LIKELY
NORTH.
TEMPERATURES LOOK MOSTLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THU...BUT COLDER AIR IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA POST THE THU SYSTEM. NAEFS 850
MB TEMP ANOMALIES HOVER AROUND -1 FOR FRI/SAT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN
THE GFS/EC FROM -4 TO -6 C BY 12Z SAT MORNING. WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...SAT COULD BE A VERY CHILLY MORNING
FOR THE REGION. A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE MVFR CLOUD MADE SOME GOOD EASTWARD
PROGRESS EARLY IN THE EVENING BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE SHOWING LITTLE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. BOTH THE 13.00Z NAM AND 13.03Z RAP INDICATE
THE MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE CLOUDS SHOULD SHIFT MORE SOUTHWARD
THAN EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE CLOUDS OVER
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA. THIS
WOULD CAUSE THE CEILINGS TO COME DOWN SOME MORE BUT REMAIN MVFR.
THE NAM NOW HOLDS ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER DURING TUESDAY THAN THE
12.18Z RUN BUT GIVEN THAT THE BACK EDGE IS CLOSER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...PLAN TO STAY WITH THE PREVIOUS TIMING OF CLEARING KRST
OUT LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND KLSE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE WITH THE INVERSION IN THE VALLEY
NOW KEEPING KLSE FROM GUSTING. WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEP THE GUSTS GOING AT KRST
UNTIL LATE MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1102 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING INLAND OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY.
GRADUAL COOLING IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH BAY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:25 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
EVENING AND IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MONTEREY COUNTY WITH
NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN
MOVING QUICKLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WHICH HAS LIMITED RAINFALL
TOTALS TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE GREATEST RAINFALL
REPORT THUS FAR HAS BEEN IN CARMEL-BY-THE-SEA WHERE 0.15" HAS
FALLEN.
BY MID-EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD DECREASED
ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...BUT SATELLITE AND RADAR
SHOW RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
CWA...MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. AND...THE 00Z NAM SHOWS CONVECTIVE
PRECIP CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
CWA. IN ADDITION...THE HRRR MODEL FORECASTS SCATTERED PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND SOUTH BAY
OVERNIGHT. THIS HRRR FORECAST IS BACKED-UP BY RECENT RADAR DATA
SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND APPROACHING THE EAST
BAY. A FORECAST UPDATE WAS JUST COMPLETED TO EXPAND SLIGHT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MORE OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SF BAY AREA OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHEASTWARD
DRIFT TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION. SOME MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SOME OF
THIS CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION MAY REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SF BAY AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A
NEED TO EXPAND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FOR
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON WHAT THE CONSENSUS OF 00Z MODEL DATA LOOKS
LIKE.
TEMPERATURES REMAINED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SF BAY AREA WHERE THERE WAS PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
WARMER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMED NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE SINCE IMPROVED FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD AS
CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE COASTAL FOG CONTINUES ALONG THE SF BAY AREA
COAST. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS MORE REMOVED FROM
THE CONVECTION.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THUS...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
RETURN ON FRIDAY. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SURFACE
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY REGION ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. WORTH NOTING...THE CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
TROUGH...PUSHING INLAND OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA LATE
SATURDAY. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS LIGHT...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL TREND
TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND ON SUNDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN AND TEMPERATURES WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. UPPER
LOW OFF CA COAST WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARINE
INVERSIONS HAVE DEEPENED TO ABOUT 1000 FEET SINCE THE AFTERNOON
THUS STRATUS AND/OR FOG LIKELY TO MOVE LOCALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR TONIGHT. KHAF REPORTING 1/2SM VSBY IN FOG AND 200 FOOT
CEILING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
W-SW WIND 10 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...AREA METARS INDICATING VFR. MORE
SHOWERS SEEN MOVING NW OVER MONTREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES WILL
HELP KEEP SUFFICIENT MIXING GOING A WHILE LONGER TONIGHT. HOWEVER
PATCHY FOG AND IFR POSSIBLY RETURNING AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEAR SATURATION.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 9:37 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE AREA SW OF
THE CENTRAL COAST WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA/RGASS
AVIATION/MARINE: CANEPA
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
928 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING INLAND OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY.
GRADUAL COOLING IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH BAY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:25 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION THIS
EVENING AND IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CONTINUED THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG
STORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN MONTEREY COUNTY WITH
NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN
MOVING QUICKLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WHICH HAS LIMITED RAINFALL
TOTALS TO ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE GREATEST RAINFALL
REPORT THUS FAR HAS BEEN IN CARMEL-BY-THE-SEA WHERE 0.15" HAS
FALLEN.
BY MID-EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAD DECREASED
ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES...BUT SATELLITE AND RADAR
SHOW RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
CWA...MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. AND...THE 00Z NAM SHOWS CONVECTIVE
PRECIP CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
CWA. IN ADDITION...THE HRRR MODEL FORECASTS SCATTERED PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND SOUTH BAY
OVERNIGHT. THIS HRRR FORECAST IS BACKED-UP BY RECENT RADAR DATA
SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY...MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND APPROACHING THE EAST
BAY. A FORECAST UPDATE WAS JUST COMPLETED TO EXPAND SLIGHT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MORE OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SF BAY AREA OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS NORTHEASTWARD
DRIFT TOWARDS POINT CONCEPTION. SOME MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SOME OF
THIS CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION MAY REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SF BAY AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A
NEED TO EXPAND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FOR
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON WHAT THE CONSENSUS OF 00Z MODEL DATA LOOKS
LIKE.
TEMPERATURES REMAINED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SF BAY AREA WHERE THERE WAS PLENTY OF SUN. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
WARMER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMED NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE SINCE IMPROVED FROM MONTEREY BAY SOUTHWARD AS
CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE COASTAL FOG CONTINUES ALONG THE SF BAY AREA
COAST. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS MORE REMOVED FROM
THE CONVECTION.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THUS...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
RETURN ON FRIDAY. WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SURFACE
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK.
BY THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL DRIVE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO/MONTEREY BAY REGION ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. WORTH NOTING...THE CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
TROUGH...PUSHING INLAND OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA LATE
SATURDAY. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS LIGHT...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL TREND
TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND ON SUNDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN AND TEMPERATURES WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 6:17 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...LOW CENTER LOCATED
APPROX 300 MILES SW OF SANTA MARIA. SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY
CONFINED TO MONTEREY COUNTY AT THE MOMENT BUT INSTABILITY LIFTING
NORTH DURING THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE
COAST. MARINE INVERSIONS MOSTLY COMPRESSED TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET
DEEP BUT GRADUAL SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL COOLING SAN FRANCISCO
PENINSULA TO NORTH CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL
LOCAL FOG INLAND INTRUSIONS. OTHERWISE INLAND CONDITIONS REMAINING
VFR.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. W-NW WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE
THIS EVENING. WILL AMEND TAF AS NEEDED BASED ON POTENTIAL SHWR/ISOLATED
T-STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND/OR OVERNIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...RAPID WEATHER CHANGES FROM VICINITY
T-STORM BACK AT 2-3 PM... NOW 1/4 MILE IN FOG VV001 AT KMRY. STILL
CLEAR AOB 12K FEET PER KSNS AND KWVI ASOS. RADAR SHOWS SHWRS/T-STORMS
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MONTEREY COUNTY LIFTING NW AT ABOUT
20-25 KNOTS...SOME VERTICAL MIXING LIKELY RETURNING TO WITH
SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF MONTEREY PENINSULA APPROX 03Z...COULD
EASILY GO RIGHT BACK TO VFR THIS EVENING. MORE FOG POSSIBLE LATE
AT NIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR SATURATION OF AIR
MASS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 09:25 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA/RGASS
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: W PI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
208 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
.AVIATION...
SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE EAST FOR THURSDAY, INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS COULD BE MOVING ONSHORE
THIS MORNING, AS THE HRRR INDICATES, AFFECTING EAST COAST
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY REACHES THE GULF
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SHWS MAY EXTEND INTO THE EVENING SO LEFT VCSH FOR THE
EAST COAST INTO TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN NEAR 10KTS FLL/FXE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015/
AVIATION...
ISOLD LGT/MDT SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FL
COAST...PROMPTING INCLUSION OF VCSH AT SOME EAST COAST TAF SITES
THROUGH 01-02Z. WEAK CONVERGENCE OF WINDS AT/NEAR SFC MAY CONTINUE
TO GIVE RISE TO ISOLD SHRA DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT IMPACTS AT TAF SITES APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
ERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AT EAST COAST SITES AND SHRA MAY
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AFTER ~18Z IN SE AREAS...WHICH WAS HANDLED
WITH VCSH FROM KTMB NEWRD TO KOPF TAF LOCATIONS.
/KDW
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015/
UPDATE...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED
FAIRLY STRONG THIS AFTERNOON, AND PUSHED WELL INLAND. IT HAS
ALLOWED SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS, INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY AND OFF THE COAST. WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME INITIATING TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
AREA, SO HAVE REDUCED POPS EVEN FURTHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS
HAD FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE
IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH, WITH A STRONG 500MB RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN US. A SFC HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST, OUT OF CANADA, TONIGHT, AND BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL THEN PROGRESS TO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE 500MB TROUGH HOLDS ON
DURING THIS TIME, AT LEAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH TREKS
TO THE EAST AND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, IT IS PROGGED TO BE OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC/ NEW ENGLAND COAST. THROUGH MONDAY, THE 500MB TROUGH
MOVES TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST US FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE MORE LOCAL EFFECTS...A STALLED BOUNDARY IS STILL OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE
AREA, ALREADY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AND LOOKS TO END UP COMBINING WITH THE CURRENT BOUNDARY
OVER THE AREA, AND STALL AS WELL. THE EXACT LOCATION WILL LIKELY
BE CRUCIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY,
WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHERE. SO HAVE MOST OF THE CHANCE POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR NOW, WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS
IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR. TOMORROW, AND ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF
THE CWA WITH CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY, MAINLY DUE TO LOCATION
UNCERTAINTY. MODELS DID GIVE LIKELY POPS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FOR FRIDAY, WHICH DO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AS WELL.
MODELS DO ALSO INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
AS THE WEEKEND WEARS ON, THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL NOT ONLY
TURN THE WIND TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA. BY SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SUSTAINED WIND BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS ACROSS THE MAINLAND
AND AROUND 20KTS OVER THE WATER. THIS WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
INCREASE FOR MONDAY, WITH 25-30 KTS CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. OVER THE PENINSULA, THE INTERIOR HAS FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS, WITH THE METRO AREAS SEEING 15-20 KTS. THE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COULD SEE 20-25
KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS IT DOES, IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TO THE NORTH OF
SOUTH FLORIDA, ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TO SLOWLY RELAX BY TUESDAY.
FOR TOMORROW, LOOKING AT SOME CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS, THEY ARE
PRETTY WEAK OVER THE MAINLAND ITSELF, WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS HAS ALMOST NO CAPE
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NAM DOES HAVE PERIOD
OF CAPE OVER SOME OF THE CWA, BUT IS LIKELY OVERDONE, AS USUAL.
THE MODELS DO SHOW PWATS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW TO
AROUND 2 INCHES. THERE IS THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA, THERE IS IS A
FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION. BUT, NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
THE LAPSE RATES TO BE LESS THAN 6 C/KM TOMORROW, AT MULTIPLE
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA.
SO, GIVEN THE BOUNDARY AND INCREASING MOISTURE, WILL EXPECT SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH LIMITED CAPE, MOST LIKELY, THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SHOWERS. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE, GIVEN THE BOUNDARY AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ABLE TO DEVELOP TODAY AND THE ADDITIONAL
BOUNDARY MOVING IN.
SUMMING UP THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK, IN ADDITION TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA, THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF FRONTS
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, KEEPING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST. THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG HIGH BUILDING TO THE
NORTH, WHICH, IN TURN, WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING ON TUESDAY.
MARINE...
A STALLED FRONT WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TONIGHT. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW,
SOMEWHAT ENHANCING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR TOMORROW
AND SATURDAY. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
BRINGING INCREASING WIND SPEEDS TO THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BEGIN
TO TURN TOMORROW TO THE NORTHEAST. BY SUNDAY, THE WIND SPEED WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS, CAUSING BUILDING SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY, THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25KTS.
BEING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, THE INTERACTION WITH THE GULF STREAM
WITH CAUSE HIGH, SHORT PERIOD WAVES OF 10-12 FT, WITH OCCASIONAL
WAVES OF 14-15 FT IN THE GULF STREAM. CONDITIONS WILL VERY SLOWLY
IMPROVE AFTER MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 77 85 75 / 20 30 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 77 83 74 / 20 40 50 40
MIAMI 88 76 84 74 / 30 40 50 40
NAPLES 89 73 86 70 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1236 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 807 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
A WEAK SFC TROF WAS JUST MOVING INTO NW WI AT 01Z. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS PERSISTED WITH THE TROF. MOSTLY CLEAR BEHIND THE TROF.
THE HRRR IS NOT DOING A VERY GOOD JOB ATTM AS IT CONTINUES TO
GENERATE SHOWERS WHERE THE MID CLOUDS ARE IN NW WI. NAM12/RAP KEEPS
THE AREA DRY THROUGH 12Z. THE ARW/NMM IS LEANING THIS WAY BUT
ATTEMPTS TO BRING IN SOME SHOWERS TO LAKE COUNTY AFTER 09Z. WILL
FOLLOW THE DRY APPROACH AND HAVE REMOVED POPS TONIGHT. ALSO LOWERED
THEM A BIT THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MAINTAINED THE POPS THE REST OF
THE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL
REACH NORTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
DROP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING FALLING OR
STEADY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-30 KTS.
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE COLD AIR MASS TOMORROW.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT H85 TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING BEGIN IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS...FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND BY THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE...H50 READINGS APPROACHING
NEGATIVE 30C WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SHOWERS.
LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW CAPE IN THE SATURATED
LAYER ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. ALTHOUGH MINIMAL...ITS ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT... CONTINUING TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE SLIDING EASTWARD SUNDAY. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS... SFC HIGH FROM SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE ALSO MOVING EASTWARD TO THE
APPALACHIANS. THE COMBINATION BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BRING
IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE NORTHLAND... SETTING THE STAGE
FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS SEASON... WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO
UPPER 20S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND... AND AROUND
FREEZING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS HAS 850 MB
TEMPS PEGGED AROUND -6C TO -10C FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THIS TIME. THIS MAY BE THE FIRST HARD FREEZE FOR MANY
LAKESIDE AREAS. IN ADDITION... A DISTURBANCE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
THE UPPER TROF THAT BROUGHT RAIN THE THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT... AND WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF CHANGING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE IRON RANGE
AND NORTHERN ARROWHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT.... AND ACROSS THE GOGEBIC
MOUNTAINS. THE COLD AIRMASS WILL LINGER FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S EXPECTED... BUT A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY... TAKING THE COLD AIR WITH
IT... BRINGING BACK HIGHS IN THE 50S.
IN THE EXTENDED... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK
BRINGING BACK AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AS A DISTURBANCE BRINGS
RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON... AND A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
TUESDAY COOLING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO THE MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
VFR AND LLWS AT THE OUT SET OF THE FORECAST WITH SOME MID CLOUDS
NEARBY. GUSTY NW WINDS AGAIN BY 15Z WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
FRONT SHOULD MOVE PAST THE TERMINALS IN THE MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT EXCEPT AT INL
AS SHOWERS WILL BE SPORADIC. HAVE A VCSH MENTION EXCEPT AT BRD
WHICH WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY SHOWERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 39 54 29 41 / 0 20 10 0
INL 37 49 25 39 / 0 50 10 0
BRD 39 54 29 43 / 0 10 0 0
HYR 37 55 29 42 / 0 20 10 10
ASX 40 55 31 43 / 0 30 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...GSF/LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
116 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS OF 06Z BUT ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR
STRATUS DECKS TO DEVELOP KDRT 12-15Z THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LOWER
DECK WILL ALSO ENCROACH ON KSSF/KSAT 10-15Z AS WELL BUT MOISTURE
MAY BE JUST LIMITED ENOUGH NOT TO GO BKN. HAVE TRENDED CIG
FORECAST TOWARDS THE NAM BUFR SOUNDING AND HRRR OUTPUT OF A SCT020
DECK FOR KSAT/KSSF. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL ALLOW BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BUT SHOULD NOT EFFECT CENTRAL
TAF SITES. AN ISSUE FOR KAUS WILL BE LIGHT SMOKE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FROM THE WILDFIRE BURNING NEAR BASTROP. HAVE PLACED
SMOKE DIRECTLY IN THE TAF WORDING GIVEN PROJECTED SMOKE PLUME
TRAJECTORIES NEAR THE AIRPORT. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL BY LATE
MORNING THURSDAY WITH SKC CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SMOKE ISSUES NEAR
AND EAST OF KAUS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NEAR 5 KT OVERNIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN PICK UP TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTN. AN
OCCASIONAL UPPER TEEN GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS
BETTER MIXING OCCURS THIS AFTN.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS.
THE SPREADING OF ANY FIRES THAT DO OCCUR OR ARE ONGOING PRESENT A
CONCERN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE IN
THE LOWER TEENS WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
15 MPH THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM.
MANY COUNTIES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE ENACTED BURN BANS AND WHILE
THESE SHOULD BE HEEDED AT ALL TIMES...IT WILL BE PARTICULARLY
IMPORTANT TO NOT START ANY FIRES FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
THURSDAY AS THEY COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY AND
EFFICIENTLY. IF YOU HAPPEN TO NOTICE ANY SMALL GRASS FIRES OR
SMOKE...PLEASE INFORM YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT OR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT. SEE FIRE WEATHER FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL TO THE NORTH OF THE
HILL COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE HELP OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION IS JUST A
BIT SLOWER THAN ECM...BUT OVERALL...FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT IS ON
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY FOR
THURSDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND RANGE FROM 8 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
15 MPH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 93 62 91 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 92 58 90 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 93 61 91 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 91 60 88 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 90 68 85 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 92 59 90 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 62 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 92 61 91 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 92 59 91 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 91 64 90 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 64 90 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015...CORRECTED
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING RESULTING IN
A WARMING AND DRYING AIR MASS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS NEAR THE ENTRANCES TO THE PASSES. THE NEXT RAIN
PRODUCING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SPREAD RAIN INLAND ON SATURDAY. A LULL IN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF RAIN SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST
WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD...TRAVERSING THE REGION THURSDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SWD AND ELONGATE OFFSHORE FURTHER
WEST...SETTING UP DEEP SLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SLY FLOW ALOFT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS...AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WRN WA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 70 ACROSS MUCH OF PUGET SOUND WITH A DRY
MOISTURE PROFILE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL WITH EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE
AFFECTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE AREA AT TIMES BUT SHOULD NOT
HINDER HIGH TEMPERATURES ALL THAT MUCH. FOG WILL BE MORE LIMITED
THAN PAST MORNING WITH THE DRIER BREEZY EAST FLOW AND HIGHER
CLOUDS...WITH JUST THE MOST SHELTERED SPOTS LIKE AROUND OLYMPIA AND
THE SW INTERIOR SEEING SOME FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENTS COULD BECOME STRONG FOR A PERIOD
THURSDAY. THE 18Z NAM GIVES A KSEA-KEAT GRADIENT NEAR +8 MB LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AND THE WRFGFS SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SPOTS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH NEAR THE CASCADE GAPS. STRONGEST WINDS
MAY STAY JUST INSIDE THE CASCADE ZONE BUT THE FOOTHILL ZONES COULD
SEE LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NEAR THE GAPS...ESPECIALLY MID
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY
GIVEN HOW LOCALIZED AND BORDERLINE THESE WINDS WILL BE. THE 00Z RUN
OF THE WRFGFS...AND HRRR SHOULD GIVE A BETTER CLUE SO WILL LET THE
NEXT SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY CHANGES.
AFTER A COUPLE OF MILD DAYS...THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BECOME
NEGATIVE TILT AND PARTIALLY SPLIT. THE CURRENT 18Z GFS RUN GIVES
ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...I SUSPECT MODELS WILL TREND TOWARD A
WEAKER SYSTEM AND LOWER QPF GIVE THE HIGH AMPLITUDE SPLIT AND STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE. MERCER
.CLIMATE...THE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE SOME OF OUR WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN OCTOBER. HISTORICALLY...THE AVERAGE DATE FOR THE LAST
70+ DAY DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR AT SEA-TAC IS OCT 8. THE FORECAST
OF 70 AND 71 AT SEA-TAC TOMORROW AND FRIDAY WOULD BEAT THE AVERAGE BY
ABOUT A WEEK.
.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSES WRN WA LATE SAT...A BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND A LULL IN
PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE SAT NGT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN QUICKLY MOVING A SHORTWAVE
EASTWARD ACROSS WRN WA IN ZONAL FLOW FROM SUN AFTN THROUGH SUN
NGT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF BRINGS HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH THIS FEATURE ON SUN NGT...WHILE THE GFS TRIES TO BREAK UP THE
AREA OF RAIN AS IT MOVES INLAND FROM THE COAST.
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ON MON. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST...BUT LARGE-SCALE LIFT TAKES A BREAK...SO A
RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE MON INTO TUE.
MODEL CONSISTENCY FALLS APART AFTER TUE...MAINLY IN TERMS OF
TIMING. THE ECMWF HANGS ON TO FLAT RIDGING NEXT WED WITH LESS
PRECIP. MEANWHILE THE GFS BRINGS IN THE NEXT TROUGH...WITH MORE
PRECIP AND SNOW LEVELS LOWERING OVER THE HIGHER NON-VOLCANIC
PEAKS. HANER
&&
.AVIATION...STABLE WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY THU AFTERNOON.
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL CIRRUS...AND SHALLOW MORNING FOG IN THE
INTERIOR FROM ABOUT TACOMA SOUTHWARD...THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY
THROUGH THU.
A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL WEAKEN
AND MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH TO
THE NORTHEAST...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN WILL WEAKEN STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE QUITE DRY...EXCEPT IN THE INTERIOR FROM ABOUT TACOMA
SOUTHWARD DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WHERE AREAS OF
SHALLOW FOG CAN BE EXPECTED. FOG THAT FORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 18Z.
EXPECT A 12 HOUR PERIOD OF EAST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH A SOME GUSTS TO
40 KT NEAR THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO SNOQUALMIE
AND STAMPEDE PASSES...FROM ABOUT 07Z-19Z THURSDAY. ALBRECHT
KSEA...PERIODS OF BKN250 WITH GOOD VISIBILITY THROUGH THU. WIND NE 7-
10 KT WILL TURN NLY AFTER 21Z THU. ALBRECHT.
&&
.MARINE...A 1030 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND WEAKEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL GIVE A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO MID
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE SELY AND WEAKEN LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS UP THROUGH 3 PM
THURSDAY FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT TO 10 NM.
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY THEN MOVE THROUGH
THE COASTAL AND INLAND WATERS ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THIS
FRONT.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE ENTRANCES TO
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. ALBRECHT
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
900 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING RESULTING IN
A WARMING AND DRYING AIR MASS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS NEAR THE ENTRANCES TO THE PASSES. THE NEXT RAIN
PRODUCING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SPREAD RAIN INLAND ON SATURDAY. A LULL IN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT MORE ORGANIZED
AREA OF RAIN SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST OFF THE PAC NW COAST
WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD...TRAVERSING THE REGION SATURDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SWD AND ELONGATE OFFSHORE FURTHER
WEST...SETTING UP DEEP SLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SLY FLOW ALOFT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL
OFFSHORE GRADIENTS...AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WRN WA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 70 ACROSS MUCH OF PUGET SOUND WITH A DRY
MOISTURE PROFILE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL WITH EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE
AFFECTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE AREA AT TIMES BUT SHOULD NOT
HINDER HIGH TEMPERATURES ALL THAT MUCH. FOG WILL BE MORE LIMITED
THAN PAST MORNING WITH THE DRIER BREEZY EAST FLOW AND HIGHER
CLOUDS...WITH JUST THE MOST SHELTERED SPOTS LIKE AROUND OLYMPIA AND
THE SW INTERIOR SEEING SOME FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENTS COULD BECOME STRONG FOR A PERIOD
THURSDAY. THE 18Z NAM GIVES A KSEA-KEAT GRADIENT NEAR +8 MB LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AND THE WRFGFS SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SPOTS OF 20-30
MPH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH NEAR THE CASCADE GAPS. STRONGEST WINDS
MAY STAY JUST INSIDE THE CASCADE ZONE BUT THE FOOTHILL ZONES COULD
SEE LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NEAR THE GAPS...ESPECIALLY MID
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY
GIVEN HOW LOCALIZED AND BORDERLINE THESE WINDS WILL BE. THE 00Z RUN
OF THE WRFGFS...AND HRRR SHOULD GIVE A BETTER CLUE SO WILL LET THE
NEXT SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY CHANGES.
AFTER A COUPLE OF MILD DAYS...THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BECOME
NEGATIVE TILT AND PARTIALLY SPLIT. THE CURRENT 18Z GFS RUN GIVES
ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...I SUSPECT MODELS WILL TREND TOWARD A
WEAKER SYSTEM AND LOWER QPF GIVE THE HIGH AMPLITUDE SPLIT AND STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE. MERCER
.CLIMATE...THE PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE SOME OF OUR WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN OCTOBER. HISTORICALLY...THE AVERAGE DATE FOR THE LAST
70+ DAY DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR AT SEA-TAC IS OCT 8. THE FORECAST
OF 70 AND 71 AT SEA-TAC TOMORROW AND FRIDAY WOULD BEAT THE AVERAGE BY
ABOUT A WEEK.
.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
CROSSES WRN WA LATE SAT...A BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND A LULL IN
PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE SAT NGT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE IN QUICKLY MOVING A SHORTWAVE
EASTWARD ACROSS WRN WA IN ZONAL FLOW FROM SUN AFTN THROUGH SUN
NGT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF BRINGS HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH THIS FEATURE ON SUN NGT...WHILE THE GFS TRIES TO BREAK UP THE
AREA OF RAIN AS IT MOVES INLAND FROM THE COAST.
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ON MON. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST...BUT LARGE-SCALE LIFT TAKES A BREAK...SO A
RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE MON INTO TUE.
MODEL CONSISTENCY FALLS APART AFTER TUE...MAINLY IN TERMS OF
TIMING. THE ECMWF HANGS ON TO FLAT RIDGING NEXT WED WITH LESS
PRECIP. MEANWHILE THE GFS BRINGS IN THE NEXT TROUGH...WITH MORE
PRECIP AND SNOW LEVELS LOWERING OVER THE HIGHER NON-VOLCANIC
PEAKS. HANER
&&
.AVIATION...STABLE WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SWLY THU AFTERNOON.
EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL CIRRUS...AND SHALLOW MORNING FOG IN THE
INTERIOR FROM ABOUT TACOMA SOUTHWARD...THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY
THROUGH THU.
A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL WEAKEN
AND MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH TO
THE NORTHEAST...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN WILL WEAKEN STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE QUITE DRY...EXCEPT IN THE INTERIOR FROM ABOUT TACOMA
SOUTHWARD DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WHERE AREAS OF
SHALLOW FOG CAN BE EXPECTED. FOG THAT FORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 18Z.
EXPECT A 12 HOUR PERIOD OF EAST WINDS 20-30 KT WITH A SOME GUSTS TO
40 KT NEAR THE CASCADES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO SNOQUALMIE
AND STAMPEDE PASSES...FROM ABOUT 07Z-19Z THURSDAY. ALBRECHT
KSEA...PERIODS OF BKN250 WITH GOOD VISIBILITY THROUGH THU. WIND NE 7-
10 KT WILL TURN NLY AFTER 21Z THU. ALBRECHT.
&&
.MARINE...A 1030 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND WEAKEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL GIVE A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO MID
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE SELY AND WEAKEN LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS UP THROUGH 3 PM
THURSDAY FOR THE WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT TO 10 NM.
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY THEN MOVE THROUGH
THE COASTAL AND INLAND WATERS ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS TO BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THIS
FRONT.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE ENTRANCES TO
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...AND THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. ALBRECHT
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
858 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
.UPDATE...
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK THIS MORNING. SURFACE BOUNDARY
HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA AND IS LOCATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING. LIGHT NORTH FLOW IS ALREADY
SHOWING SIGNS OF VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. TOTAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE (PWAT)
REMAINS LOW...BETWEEN 0.9 TO 1.2 INCHES...WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION AT 850MB. DESPITE SLIGHT
AIRMASS MODIFICATION AS WINDS VEER ONSHORE TODAY...AND THE
INSISTENCE OF THE LOCAL WRF AND HRRR ON DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN-FREE FOR TODAY.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO WARM QUICKLY TODAY...LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH 87-88F
EXPECTED FURTHER INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...NORTHERLY FLOW...UP TO 10-15 KNOTS...WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 1-2 FEET
THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON WELL OFFSHORE
THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY COAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 84 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 87 65 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 85 70 85 69 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 87 69 84 67 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 86 63 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 87 64 86 66 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 87 68 87 69 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 86 69 85 67 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST/AVIATION...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER UPDATE....VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
325 PM MST THU OCT 15 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE...MOVING SLOWLY INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
BEING FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER A BIT OF A BREAK
FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...A SECOND LOW CENTER IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY. A SLOW
DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE UPPER LOW...WHICH HAS BROUGHT
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF SE CA TODAY IS NOW
BEGINNING TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION. THE LATEST MODEL SUITES ARE NOW SHOWING THAT THIS LOW
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...NOT REACHING THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY UNTIL LATE
MORNING ON SATURDAY. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER INTO AN
OPEN WAVE...AND ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS AZ FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACTS AS
A KICKER. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SUBTROPICS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES IN THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW ARE PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE 1ST SHORTWAVE...NOW
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NV...PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SE CA EARLY THIS MORNING. A
2ND WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS NOW TRIGGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SE
AZ. THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL RUN IS SHOWING THAT ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD
ACROSS SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS
ISOLATED AT BEST...AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STABLE WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR REMAINING MAINLY AOB 30 KTS...AND CAPE MAINLY AOB 500
J/KG.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT BE A MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD...AT LEAST ACROSS SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AS THE UPPER
LOW/TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROF WILL
BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT ALOFT
NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER. HOWEVER...WITH CAPE VALUES RISING INTO
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30
KTS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR LOCATIONS THAT SEE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...A COOLING TREND IS STILL
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT...INCREASED
CLOUDINESS...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD CURRENTLY IS QUITE LOW...DUE
TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITES AND RUN-TO-RUN
DIFFERENCES WITHIN EACH MODEL SUITE CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT TWO UPPER LOW CENTERS THAT WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE 1ST UPPER LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AZ...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF OUR
CWA. THE SECOND UPPER LOW CENTER IS THEN FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SE CA INTO NW MEXICO ON TUE AND WED. AT THIS
POINT...HAVE JUST LEFT OUR CURRENT MID AND LONG-RANGE POPS
ALONE...WHICH ARE NOW MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THEN DWINDLE OFF AFTERWARDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING AS
LOW AS 10K FT. PERIODIC VIRGA AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD
AFFECT TERMINALS...HOWEVER IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL. SFC WINDS HAVE
MAINTAINED AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...HOWEVER SOME MEASURE OF A WEST
DRIFT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY LOW
TO MODERATE ON WIND SHIFTS. MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH CNTRL ARIZONA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS FORMING OVER THE BAJA SPINE WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TERMINALS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY ONLY BE SCT SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
VICINITY MENTION...FIRST AT KIPL THEN LATER AT KBLH. EVEN NEAR
TSRA...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AOA 6K FT. TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA IS
MODERATE. OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE DISTRICT.
LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF EASTERN
ARIZONA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES IN A 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE EARLY
IN THE WEEK WILL ONLY DECREASE TO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT. A FEW STRONGER NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS DOWN THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NOT A FIRE
WEATHER IMPACT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
220 PM MST THU OCT 15 2015
&&
.SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE...MOVING SLOWLY INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL BEING FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AFTER A BIT OF
A BREAK FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...A SECOND LOW CENTER
IS THEN EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY. A
SLOW DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE UPPER LOW...WHICH HAS BROUGHT
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF SE CA TODAY...IS NOW
BEGINNING TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION. THE LATEST MODEL SUITES ARE NOW SHOWING THAT THIS LOW
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...NOT REACHING THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY UNTIL LATE
MORNING ON SATURDAY. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER...INTO AN
OPEN WAVE...AND ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS AZ FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACTS AS
A KICKER. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SUBTROPICS. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES IN THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE 1ST SHORTWAVE...THAT IS NOW
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NV...PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SE CA EARLY THIS MORNING. A
2ND...WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS NOW TRIGGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SE
AZ. THE LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL RUN IS SHOWING THAT ISOLATED-
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD
ACROSS SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS IT WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST...AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS RATHER STABLE...WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR REMAINING MAINLY AOB 30 KTS...AND CAPE MAINLY AOB 500
J/KG.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE IT BE A MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD...AT LEAST ACROSS SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ...AS THE UPPER
LOW/TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY THE FACT THAT THE UPPER TROF WILL
BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES...REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT ALOFT
NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER. HOWEVER...WITH CAPE VALUES RISING INTO
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 30
KTS...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR LOCATIONS THAT SEE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...A COOLING TREND IS STILL
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT...INCREASED
CLOUDINESS...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD CURRENTLY IS QUITE LOW...DUE
TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITES AND RUN-TO-RUN
DIFFERENCES WITHIN EACH MODEL SUITE CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT TWO UPPER LOW CENTERS THAT WILL BE AFFECTING
THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. THE 1ST UPPER LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AZ...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF OUR
CWA. THE SECOND UPPER LOW CENTER IS THEN FORECAST TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SE CA INTO NW MEXICO ON TUE AND WED. AT THIS
POINT...HAVE JUST LEFT OUR CURRENT MID AND LONG-RANGE POPS
ALONE...WHICH ARE NOW MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...THEN DWINDLE OFF AFTERWARDS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
UPPER LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS. NOT
MUCH EXPECTED THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS...JUST SOME MID/HI LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS. DO NOT EXPECT RAIN CHANCES OF CONSEQUENCE UNTIL THIS
EVENING. THUS HAVE ENTERED VCSH AFTER ABOUT 02Z FOR THE CENTRAL
DESERT TAF SITES. EXPECT CLOUD DECKS TO THICKEN/LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS DOWN AROUND 10K BY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM MIXED IN TONIGHT BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS. WINDS AGAIN WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL
TENDENCIES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS...ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT OVERLY LOW CIGS...MOST SHOULD RANGE FROM
8K TO 12K FEET TODAY...UNLESS ESPECIALLY HEAVY/LONG LASTING SHOWERS
DEVELOP. MENTIONED -SHRA IN THE TAFS THROUGH 16Z WITH VCTS ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS COULD BE PREDOMINANT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS SHOULD
BE ON THE ISOLATED SIDE THUS THE VICINITY WORDING. FOLLOWING THIS
EVENING MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER AZ...THERE MAY BE
A LINGERING SHOWER BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO CONTINUE MENTIONING IN THE
TAFS. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FAVORING WEST TO NORTH.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH
ANY WETTING RAINS FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA
SATURDAY. WHILE DRIER WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE REGION
NEXT WEEK...A FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN A 25 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE DURING THE WEEKEND...ONLY DRYING TO A 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT. A FEW STRONGER EASTERLY RIDGE TOP AND GAP WIND GUSTS WILL
POSSIBLE SATURDAY OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS
DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NOT A FIRE WEATHER
IMPACT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS EACH DAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO/CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
354 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS. YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM
WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
A FEW LINGERING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT...A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS QUICKLY
MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
MOSTLY SUNNY...CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY APPROACHING WESTERN NY AND
ONTARIO. 12Z NAM12 AND 18Z 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST RAINFALL WILL
START ACROSS WESTERN AREAS BY 11 PM...AND SPREAD EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT AND WILL ONLY LAST A FEW
HOURS AT ANY ONE PARTICULAR LOCATION. BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A
SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...CLOSER TO THE BEST FORCING.
MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...BUT PARTS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE AS MUCH AS A THIRD OF AN
INCH.
WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S...ALTHOUGH
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN AND EASTERN AREAS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A PARTLY SUNNY SKY EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON FOR
MOST VALLEY AREAS. SOME CLOUDS MAY BE STILL BE AROUND FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY AND BE GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH
POSSIBLE. DESPITE BEING BEHIND THE SFC BOUNDARY...GOOD MIXING WILL
STILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER...WITH SOME 40S TO LOW 50S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL
USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS DROPPING TO -10 DEGREES C BY SAT
NIGHT....AS A DEEP AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
NORTHEAST.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...ESP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...AS THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS.
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE...SO PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY SPOTTY. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING
IN ALOFT...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...ESP FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS OFF. IT SHOULD REMAIN WARM
ENOUGH IN MOST VALLEY AREAS FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN AS RAIN
SHOWERS...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME GRAUPEL WITHIN ANY SHOWERS THAT
HAVE A BRIEF HEAVIER INTENSITY. QPF WILL ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH...AND COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPOTTY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR NORTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. SKY COVER LOOKS MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME BREAKS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR HIGH TERRAIN
LOCATIONS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
MOST AREAS...WITH 30S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BREEZY ON SATURDAY...MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
TEMPS WILL BE EVEN COLDER FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION
FALLING BELOW FREEZING. THIS WON/T BE A TYPICAL RADIATIVE COOLING
NIGHT...AS A CHILLY NW BREEZE WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PASSING
CLOUDS STILL AROUND /ALTHOUGH NOT AS MANY CLOUDS AS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY/. A FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN AREAS
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ONGOING /HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT/ AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
THREAT IN THE HWO STATEMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESIDUAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN NORTH
AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WE GO INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS WE GO INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH INTO
THE REGION WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AS H850 AND H925 TEMPS WILL MODIFY AND BY WEDNESDAY
RANGE FROM 4C TO 8C AND 6C TO 9C RESPECTIVELY. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.
LATEST 15/12Z MODEL AND PROBAILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW A STALLED FRONT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS WE GO INTO
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS OUTPUT DO DIFFER IN THE
EQUATORWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS. WITH NO
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT AND WITH THE FRONT
BEING STALLED IN CANADA TOO FAR REMOVED FROM OUR
REGION...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK LOW OVERALL INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. FORECAST WILL BE MODIFIED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE AT OR WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
ESPECIALLY AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT...PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. COOLER
AIR...ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL FOLLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH FRI MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. THEREAFTER...AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE KGFL/KALB
AND KPSF TAF SITES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 05Z-09Z/FRI. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR...ALTHOUGH SINCE IT WILL BE QUITE
BRIEF...HAVE ONLY INDICATED VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AT KPOU...WHERE ONLY VCSH IS INDICATED.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF...WHERE VCSH IS
INDICATED. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AT THESE TAF
SITES...WHICH COULD APPROACH MVFR CIGS AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET...EXCEPT
SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT AT KALB WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY AT 8-12 KT...THEN
BECOME MAINLY WEST BY MID MORNING AT 10-15 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25 KT OR GREATER POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND KPSF.
WINDS MAY ALSO BECOME BRIEFLY GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF ANY RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS. RH VALUES MAY STAY HIGHER IN THE ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH.
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 35 TO 60 PERCENT ON
SATURDAY...AND 35 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. THE LOWEST VALUES WILL
BE OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY...AND NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
ANY PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY
SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND COULD EVEN FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN AT TIMES. BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL RANGE FROM JUST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AS MUCH AS FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
AS A RESULT...STREAM...CREEK...BROOK...LAKE...RESERVOIR...AND
RIVER LEVELS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
655 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
SPRINKLES AND CLOUD COVER CONTINUE THEIR PUSH TOWARD CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. BUT FOR THE NEAR TERM...SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR AND THE GROUND WILL REMAIN DRY. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ALIGN T/TD
GRIDS WITH OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE. TO THE NORTHWEST...A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A DRY COLD FRONT CUTTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOCALLY...THE FULL
SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE BASE OF THE
BROAD NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS
WESTERN BASE. THIS WAVE...AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT...
THEN PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE WHOLE
TROUGH DESCENDING FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY CLEAR EVENING WITH LIKELY A
QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE VALLEYS IN THIS DRY
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL SET UP A GOOD RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS...WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT...HELP MIX OUT THE COLDER
VALLEY TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
STRAY SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES...TO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO DAWN. THIS MINOR PCPN THREAT PASSES OUT OF EAST
KENTUCKY EARLY FRIDAY WITH CLEARING ALSO QUICKLY TAKING PLACE.
THANKS TO RETURNING SUNSHINE...HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S DESPITE POST FRONTAL CAA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH READINGS
SETTLING IN THE MID 30S FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND FROST A GOOD
BET IN THESE SPOTS BY DAWN.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT DID NEED TO ADJUST THE T GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DROP OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND FOR T AND TD GRIDS. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO RATHER LOW POPS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS OUTSIDE OF THAT TIME FRAME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH PW`S DROPPING TO
AROUND OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS ARE FRONT AND CENTER. MOS GUIDANCE HAS THE COLDER VALLEYS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH WILL
BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND PLAN TO ISSUE AN SPS TO START HIGHLIGHTING
THE THREAT EVEN MORE. A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT
FAVORED OVER FOG...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. WHILE THE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...GRADIENT WILL STILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK TO SUPPORT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE TWO CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
AIRMASS WILL MODERATE WITH THE THREAT OF FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
DEPARTING. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT
12Z GFS HAD THIS FRONT DRY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BETTER FORCING TO
THE NORTH. THUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
SOME RECORD LOWS WITHIN REACH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY WARM AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LOWERING CEILINGS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PASSAGE...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BE AT 5 TO
10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOW DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE. TO THE NORTHWEST...A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A DRY COLD FRONT CUTTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOCALLY...THE FULL
SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE BASE OF THE
BROAD NORTHEAST NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS
WESTERN BASE. THIS WAVE...AND THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT...
THEN PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE WHOLE
TROUGH DESCENDING FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY CLEAR EVENING WITH LIKELY A
QUICK DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE VALLEYS IN THIS DRY
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL SET UP A GOOD RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS...WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT...HELP MIX OUT THE COLDER
VALLEY TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
STRAY SHOWERS...BUT MAINLY ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES...TO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO DAWN. THIS MINOR PCPN THREAT PASSES OUT OF EAST
KENTUCKY EARLY FRIDAY WITH CLEARING ALSO QUICKLY TAKING PLACE.
THANKS TO RETURNING SUNSHINE...HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S DESPITE POST FRONTAL CAA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH READINGS
SETTLING IN THE MID 30S FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND FROST A GOOD
BET IN THESE SPOTS BY DAWN.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT DID NEED TO ADJUST THE T GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DROP OFF THIS EVENING. FOR THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND FOR T AND TD GRIDS. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO RATHER LOW POPS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS OUTSIDE OF THAT TIME FRAME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
...HARD FREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH PW`S DROPPING TO
AROUND OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE
CONCERNS ARE FRONT AND CENTER. MOS GUIDANCE HAS THE COLDER VALLEYS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH WILL
BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND PLAN TO ISSUE AN SPS TO START HIGHLIGHTING
THE THREAT EVEN MORE. A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES...WE SHOULD SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT
FAVORED OVER FOG...EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. WHILE THE
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...GRADIENT WILL STILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK TO SUPPORT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE TWO CONSECUTIVE NIGHTS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO NEXT WEEK...THE
AIRMASS WILL MODERATE WITH THE THREAT OF FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
DEPARTING. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT
12Z GFS HAD THIS FRONT DRY AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BETTER FORCING TO
THE NORTH. THUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH
SOME RECORD LOWS WITHIN REACH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY WARM AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LOWERING CEILINGS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. A
STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PASSAGE...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. WINDS WILL BE AT 5 TO
10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
525 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE
THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
AND FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BRING AN END
TO THE GROWING SEASON. THE SEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE SUNNY DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE THIS
EVENING. A BREEZY WSW WIND WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DRAGS A FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE LATEST HRRR BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING THROUGH THE NW
AND SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL PA AROUND 00Z. THIS LINE WILL BE OUT
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM NORTHWEST
ONTARIO THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH THE BEFORE MENTIONED
TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW.
MOISTURE/PW VALUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FCST TO REMAIN AT
OR BELOW NORMAL WHICH SUGGESTS FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE HIGHEST AMTS /0.35 INCH
OR LESS/ OVER FAR NW PA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAKE ERIE...WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE MSTR FLUX TO SOME DEGREE AND POSSIBLY INDUCE SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE DOWNSLOPE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW AND LACK OF
LOW LEVEL MSTR WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REACH
THE FAR SE ZONES. A PERSISTENT WEST WIND AND POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MODEL BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA TRACKS COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
ADVECTION OF LOW PWAT AIR MASS IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
DRY FRIDAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WILL BE DIVING SE FROM THE GRT LKS LATE IN
THE DAY...LIKELY SPREADING SCT SHOWERS INTO THE NW COUNTIES BY
LATE AFTN. ANY QPF FROM THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS ARND 5C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE L50S OVR
THE NW MTNS...TO THE M60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COOL SHOWERY REGIME WILL PERSIST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP CANADIAN UPPER TROF TRACKS FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND EAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER
THE CHILLIEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR AND A WIDESPREAD CHC OF
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
LATER SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A LAKE
SUPERIOR/HURON CONNECTION SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF MORE SOMEWHAT
MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. AS
EARLIER NOTED...BLYR AND GROUND TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WARM
FOR ACCUMS UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A DUSTING
OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN OVERALL DETAILS TODAY AS COLD POOL CROSSES
THE STATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND A RETURN TO
NICE FALL WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS
ON THE COLD FOR SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH IS LIKELY TO END THE
GROWING SEASON FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA...AND ON TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF APPROACHING FRONT TOWARDS MIDWEEK OR BEYOND AS SFC HIGH
REMAINS LODGED ALONG AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WED/THU. INTRODUCED SLGT/CHC SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH LINGERS THU AND FRI AS SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGS
ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FREEZE SAT NIGHT...
STILL EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO OCCUR SUN NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND A LGT WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL BLW FREEZING OVR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO 21Z TAFS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO WITH FAIR WEATHER
STRATO CU THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES EXPECT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z...WITH PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW. THE MAIN
FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE BTWN 00-12Z FRI
ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS ARE LKLY AT AND BEHIND THE
FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE WRN AIRSPACE IN
COLD NW FLOW PATTERN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MVFR CIGS/-SHRASN WRN TAFS. LOW VFR CIGS CNTRL/EAST.
WIND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.
MON-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CERU/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
307 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE
THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
AND FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BRING AN END
TO THE GROWING SEASON. THE SEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE SUNNY DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE THIS
EVENING. A BREEZY WSW WIND WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DRAGS A FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE LATEST HRRR BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING THROUGH THE NW
AND SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL PA AROUND 00Z. THIS LINE WILL BE OUT
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH THE BEFORE MENTIONED TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW.
MOISTURE/PW VALUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FCST TO REMAIN AT
OR BELOW NORMAL WHICH SUGGESTS FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE HIGHEST AMTS /0.35
INCH OR LESS/ OVER FAR NW PA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ERIE...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE MSTR FLUX TO SOME DEGREE AND POSSIBLY
INDUCE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE DOWNSLOPE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW
AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL MSTR WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO REACH THE FAR SE ZONES. A PERSISTENT WEST WIND AND
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
MODEL BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA TRACKS COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
ADVECTION OF LOW PWAT AIR MASS IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
DRY FRIDAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WILL BE DIVING SE FROM THE GRT LKS LATE IN
THE DAY...LIKELY SPREADING SCT SHOWERS INTO THE NW COUNTIES BY
LATE AFTN. ANY QPF FROM THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS ARND 5C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE L50S OVR
THE NW MTNS...TO THE M60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COOL SHOWERY REGIME WILL PERSIST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS DEEP CANADIAN UPPER TROF TRACKS FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND EAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS TROF WILL DELIVER
THE CHILLIEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR AND A WIDESPREAD CHC OF
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS
LATER SATURDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A LAKE
SUPERIOR/HURON CONNECTION SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF MORE SOMEWHAT
MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS. AS
EARLIER NOTED...BLYR AND GROUND TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WARM
FOR ACCUMS UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A DUSTING
OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN OVERALL DETAILS TODAY AS COLD POOL CROSSES
THE STATE SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY LARGE SCALE RIDGING AND A RETURN TO
NICE FALL WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS
ON THE COLD FOR SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH IS LIKELY TO END THE
GROWING SEASON FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL PA...AND ON TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF APPROACHING FRONT TOWARDS MIDWEEK OR BEYOND AS SFC HIGH
REMAINS LODGED ALONG AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WED/THU. INTRODUCED SLGT/CHC SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH LINGERS THU AND FRI AS SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGS
ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FREEZE SAT NIGHT...
STILL EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO OCCUR SUN NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND A LGT WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL BLW FREEZING OVR NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO WITH FAIR WEATHER
STRATO CU THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES EXPECT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z...WITH PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW. THE MAIN
FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE BTWN 00-12Z FRI
ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS ARE LKLY AT AND BEHIND THE
FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE WRN AIRSPACE IN
COLD NW FLOW PATTERN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MVFR CIGS/-SHRASN WRN TAFS. LOW VFR CIGS CNTRL/EAST.
WIND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CERU/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
257 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DOMINATE
THE REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
AND FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BRING AN END
TO THE GROWING SEASON. THE SEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH FAIR WEATHER AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SUNNY DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE THIS
EVENING. A BREEZY WSW WIND WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DRAGS A FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE LATEST HRRR BRINGS A LINE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING THROUGH THE NW
AND SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL PA AROUND 00Z. THIS LINE WILL BE OUT
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE QUICKLY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO
THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH THE BEFORE MENTIONED TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW.
MOISTURE/PW VALUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE FCST TO REMAIN AT
OR BELOW NORMAL WHICH SUGGESTS FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE HIGHEST AMTS /0.35
INCH OR LESS/ OVER FAR NW PA IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAKE
ERIE...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE MSTR FLUX TO SOME DEGREE AND POSSIBLY
INDUCE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE DOWNSLOPE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW
AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL MSTR WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO REACH THE FAR SE ZONES. A PERSISTENT WEST WIND AND
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
MODEL BLEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
ALL MDL DATA TRACKS COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
ADVECTION OF LOW PWAT AIR MASS IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
DRY FRIDAY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WILL BE DIVING SE FROM THE GRT LKS LATE IN
THE DAY...LIKELY SPREADING SCT SHOWERS INTO THE NW COUNTIES BY
LATE AFTN. ANY QPF FROM THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT. GEFS MEAN
925TEMPS ARND 5C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE L50S OVR
THE NW MTNS...TO THE M60S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU CENTRAL PA FRI
EVENING...USHERING IN THE CHILLIEST AIR MASS SO FAR THIS SEASON.
BEST LG SCALE FORCING AND ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT THE NW
MTNS BTWN 00Z-06Z SAT...THUS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE 80-90PCT
RANGE ARE PLACED UP THERE WITH A MARKEDLY LOWER CHC OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP FURTHER SE. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...FALLING INVERSION HGT AND DRY AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN
LIGHT PRECIP AMTS AND MARGINAL BLYR TEMPS/WARM GROUND WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE ANY ACCUMS.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND REINFORCING SHORTWAVES SHOULD HELP TO DEEPEN THE COLD
AIR WITH ANOMALOUS DEPARTURES REACHING -2.5SD BELOW THE MEAN OR
-5C TO -8C AT 850MB. DRYNESS OF ARRIVING AIR MASS /WITH NEG PWAT
ANOMALIES OF 1-2SD/ WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...LK HURON CONNECTION SHOULD SUPPORT A
BAND OF MORE SOMEWHAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW MTNS. BLYR AND GROUND TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO
WARM FOR ACCUMS DURING SAT. HOWEVER...SUSPECT PORTIONS OF THE NW
MTNS WILL SEE A LIGHT ACCUM SAT NIGHT.
POOL OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT PASSES OVER THE STATE SUNDAY...LIKELY
RESULTING IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS PEAKING SUNDAY AFTN DURING THE HOURS
OF MAX HEATING/INSTABILITY. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PTYPE WILL BE
SHSN OVR THE MTNS AND SHRA ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. NO ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED SUN AFTN OVR THE NW MTNS...AS TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 40F OVR THE ALLEGHENIES. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A FREEZE SAT NIGHT...EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPS TO
OCCUR SUN NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES
AND A LGT WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BLW FREEZING OVR NEARLY
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY.
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING FAIR WX AND MODERATING TEMPS
NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY LIFTS OUT. SFC HIGH IS PROGGED
TO VERY SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE MID ATL COAST WITH RETURN SW FLOW
RETURNING TEMPS TO ABV NORMAL READINGS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN SO WITH FAIR WEATHER
STRATO CU THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES EXPECT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT BFD WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z...WITH PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE FLOW. THE MAIN
FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE AIRSPACE BTWN 00-12Z FRI
ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS ARE LKLY AT AND BEHIND THE
FRONT AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE WRN AIRSPACE IN
COLD NW FLOW PATTERN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...MVFR CIGS/-SHRASN WRN TAFS. LOW VFR CIGS CNTRL/EAST.
WIND GUSTS 15-20KTS FROM 280-310.
MON...VFR. NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CERU/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...CERU/STEINBUGL
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A
MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONCERT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH 500MB IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN. SEVERAL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OF SMALL HAIL IN THE
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF MINNESOTA. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER EXISTS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. PRECIP TRENDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY IN THE
EVENING TAKING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AND MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL TO MINUS 7-8C OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER N-C WISCONSIN.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARRIVE ELSEWHERE AS THE COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NE WISCONSIN. WITH A GUSTY NW WIND...LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. NO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR
THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKE SHORE TONIGHT DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MORNING OVER N-
C WI. ELSEWHERE...SCT MORNING CLOUDS MAY TURN BROKEN FOR A PERIOD
LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. BUT THERE WILL BE AMPLE DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE ANY DIURNAL CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...SO CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST LONGER OVER N-C WI. COOL HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL ALLOW
VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. LAKE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SMALL MIXED PCPN CHANCES MAY LINGER OVER THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE THE DRYING AIR MASS WITH
SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
WILL EVENTUALLY PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES. THE PRIMARY ISSUE WILL BE
THE WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES...TEENS NORTH TO 20S CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL HOIST A FREEZE
WATCH FOR EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN INCLUDING THE LAKESHORE REGION
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE AND BAY WILL
LIKELY BE PROTECTED BUT INLAND AREAS OF DOOR WILL AT LEAST SEE A
GOOD FROST. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS SATURDAY MORNING...MORE
FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED THE FOLLOWING NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER.
RETURN FLOW BEGINS LATER SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPS MAY REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY AND
THEN ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. SOME PROGS ATTEMPT TO BRING IN PCPN
MONDAY WITH THE WAA...BUT WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THE
START OF THE DAY DUE TO THE AIR MASS WILL NEED TO SATURATE FROM
THE RECENT INTRUSION OF LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
PROGS INDICATE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TIMING SLOWLY DIVERT AS THE WEAK WEARS ON.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NARROW PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH THE BEST WAA WILL SLIDE
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ONLY A GLANCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO BRUSH OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER DEVELOPING AND
POSSIBLE DEEPER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR ALTHOUGH WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE
REGION ALONG WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN WI TONIGHT.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AT RHI AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNCERTAINTY
IS TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE MVFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER TAF SITES THOUGH.
CIGS TO RISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
WIZ022-038>040-048>050.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC