Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/14/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SPRINKLES/SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES. A
HARDIER BATCH OF SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND OFF OF LBI SOUTHWEST TO THE
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL AND IS
BEING USED FOR THIS UPDATE. POPS REMAIN IN THE GRIDS UNTIL 04Z.
TEMPS THIS EVENING RANGE MAINLY FROM THE MID 50S INTO THE 60S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
SKIES WILL CLEAR IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT EVERYWHERE. SOME HIGH
BASED STRATOCU AND MID-LEVEL ALTOCU WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN INCREASE IN POPS WAS NEEDED IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE. THE HRRR
HAS A VORTICITY MAXIMA FUELING THESE SHOWERS. NOW HAVE SOME POPS
MENTIONED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH 04Z. SOME THUNDER BEING
REPORTED ACROSS DELMARVA. COVERING WITH NOWCASTS. A BRIEF DOWNPOUR
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE PREFONTAL PRECIP THAT AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLIER
HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. NOW, THE CFP IS EXPECTED IN A FEW
HOURS. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SAID THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SOME SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTN/ERLY THIS
EVE, AND THERE ARE SOME SCT ECHOES IN CNTRL/WRN PA. HOWEVER, BOTH
AREAL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT. SO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW
POPS, MAINLY FOR NRN AREAS AND NO POPS AFTER 00Z. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING AT ALL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER THE CFP, WK HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE W,
WITH A SECONDARY (AND DRY) CFP ON WED. A WEST WIND WILL BECOME
GUSTY AND COULD REACH THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE ON WED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR MOST OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD THE EASTERN US WILL BE UNDER A
LONG-WAVE TROF AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESS
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE OH/TN VLYS. THEN A FAST
MOVG SHRTWV TROF WILL APPROACH THU NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SMWHT DEEPER AND SLOWER WITH THIS
SHRTWV THAN THE GFS AND THE EC MOS HAS HIGHER POPS. HAVE GENLY
FOLLOWED THE EC WITH CHC POPS NORTH AND SLGT CHC SOUTH FOR FRIDAY.
THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THRU QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AND BE
OFFSHORE BY 00Z SAT.
FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON NW FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT AND CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AS LOW
AS -4 TO -6 DEG C. SOME FROST AND/OR FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND IS MAINTAINED SAT AND SUN NIGHTS. SOME
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE POCONOS MAY RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES OR EVEN
SNOW FLURRIES ON SAT. CYC FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SOME CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME OVER AREAS N OF PHL.
THE FCST 1030+ HPA SFC HIGH PRES IS FCST TO MOVE OVER US ON
MONDAY AND THEN OFFSHORE ON TUE. ALSO THE MID/UPPER-LVL TROF MOVES
OFF THE EAST COAST AND IS REPLACED BY A WEAK RIDGE WITH ACYC FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED FAIR WX WITH TEMPS RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD. KABE HAS FINALLY RETURNED
TO VFR. IT IS PSBL FOR A LCL MVFR AT A SITE OR TWO IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IF -SHRA OCCURS MITH A CFP, MAINLY N AND W. SW WIND AROUND
10 KT WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AND BECOME MORE WLY. ON
WED, A SECONDARY AND DRY CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION AND WIND WILL
INCREASE AND WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS BY AFTN, FROM THE W.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEST WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE COAST. REPLACED
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ONLY ANZ450-451.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FORECAST UPDATED TO INCLUDE SOME SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
BAY AND SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS. SOME THUNDER IS BEING REPORTED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE PREV ISSUED SCA WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE AND WILL NOW INCLUDE
ALL CSTL ZONES. SEAS ARE RUNNING LOWER THAN THE GUID INDICATED
WHICH IS COMMON ON S TO SW FLOW AND WINDS REMAIN CLOSE TO BUT JUST
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. LATER TONIGHT, BOTH WIND AND SEAS SHOULD
DIMINISH. THEN, NO ADDITIONAL FLAGS SHUD BE NEEDED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NW WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL BACK TO THE
SW AND WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AND MAY
APPROACH SCA LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS LATE FRIDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W AND NW.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FAIRLY STRONG NW FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN SOLID SCA CONDS
FOR SAT AND SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXECTED.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
AVIATION...AMC/NIERENBERG
MARINE...AMC/KRUZDLO/NIERENBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
842 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.UPDATE (OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A PATTERN CARVED OUT BY
THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OF LONGWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES...AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST. THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS DOWN THE SPINE OF THE APALACHEANS AND INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CAN BE ANALYZED IN WV
IMAGERY ROUNDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN
AL/FL PANHANDLE THE EVENING. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS ENERGY
IN THE FORM OF A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALSO APPROACHING THE I-10
CORRIDOR OF FLORIDA.
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY PROGRESSION EASTWARD/SE OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ALLOWING SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE
FRONT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL THERE IS
NOT A TON OF COLUMN MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC/QG
FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH MEAGER SURFACE FOCUS
ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE
PARAMETERIZED GUIDANCE IS NOT SEEING THEIR CONVECTIVE SCHEMES
TRIGGERED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR THESE SHOWERS TO REACH LEVY
COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BETWEEN
12-15Z TOWARD CEDAR KEY...AND MANY OF THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MEMBERS ARE HOLDING ONTO ENOUGH FOCUS TO SUPPORT A NARROW BAND OF
BROKEN SHOWERS INTO LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG...SO CAN NOT
RULE OUT THIS POTENTIAL DESPITE THE MOISTURE LIMITATIONS. HAVE
ADDED A 20-30% POP TO THE GRIDS BETWEEN 09-15Z FOR OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES...HOWEVER ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WILL BE
BRIEF...AND VERY LOW IN QPF. BASICALLY...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
PASSING BAND OF DECAYING SHOWERS AT BEST.
LATER IN THE MORNING...THE WHOLE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE SHEARED
OUT...AND THE DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL NOT BE THAT
IMPRESSIVE ANYMORE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER DOWN TOWARD
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY...MAINLY DUE TO WEAK SURFACE
FOCUS AND DEVELOPING DIURNAL INSTABILITY. AT THIS
POINT...POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE 10% OR LESS...AND WILL LEAVE MENTION
OUT OF FORECAST FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS BY DAWN
GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LOWER 70S WILL BE COMMON ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SUN COAST
ZONES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPS...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY TERMINALS TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY AROUND KLAL
AND KPGD. ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF ALLOWING A RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR KFMY/KRSW.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING FLOW
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. PERIODS OF NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 85 70 87 / 10 10 0 0
FMY 72 89 72 89 / 10 20 10 30
GIF 68 89 68 88 / 0 10 0 0
SRQ 73 83 70 87 / 10 10 0 0
BKV 66 85 62 87 / 10 10 0 0
SPG 73 85 73 86 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
COASTAL SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...
QUIET WX PATTERN AS DEEP WRLY FLOW OVER THE GOMEX PUSHES A
WEAK/SHALLOW HIGH PRES RIDGE ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE WITH A SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
PREVAILING ARND THE H85 LVL...H85-H50 MEAN RH VALUES AOB 30PCT...
DECREASING VORTICITY THRU THE H85-H30 LYR...AND A WEAKLY CONVERGENT
H30-H20 LYR.
LCL AIRMASS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY LATE EVNG AS THE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD AND THE LCL PGRAD COLLAPSES. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS
0-0.5KM MEAN RH IN THE NE GOMEX BTWN 70-80PCT...SUGGESTING PTCHY FOG
ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR IN THE PREDAWN HRS. IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINIMAL...HOWEVER...AS FOG FORMATIONS SUCH AS THIS DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFT SUNRISE.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S/L60S COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WNDS
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ON THE SAME ORDER...WHILE WRLY WINDS ON
TUE FLOW SHOULD PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE M80S.
WED-THU...
A WEAK DRY COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA WED AND
CLEAR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LATE OVERNIGHT WED. TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING LIMITED DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO AROUND
850MB/5000 FEET AND LITTLE MID LEVEL VORTICITY FOR THE FRONT TO WORK
WITH. CURRENT LESS THAN 15 POP STILL A GOOD CALL.
FRI-SUN...(PREV DISC)
THE 12/12Z MEX SHOWING POP 15 OR LESS FOR THE AREA THROUGH MON OCT
19TH.
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI
S/SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE
ELEVATED E/NE FLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWER BANDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST UP TO 30 TO 50 POP VERO
BEACH SOUTH FRI THROUGH SUN PERCENT WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE WITH DECREASING POPS FARTHER NORTH AND INLAND.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST FROM
THE CAPE SOUTHWARD AND MID-UPPER 60S FARTHER INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 13/18Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 13/00Z...W/NW 8-12KTS. BTWN 13/00Z-13/03Z...BCMG W
AOB 3KTS...CONTG THRU 13/13Z. AFT 13/13Z...W/SW 7-10KTS.
VSBYS/WX/CIGS: BTWN 13/08Z-13/13Z...PTCHY STRATUS PRODUCING LCL IFR
CIGS/MVFR BR N OF KMLB-KBOW.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LIGHT TO GENTLE WRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL AS A
WEAK HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GOMEX ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. WEAK
PGRAD SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE S/SE NEAR THE COAST FROM
THE CAPE SWD BY MID AFTN TUE...S/SW N OF THE CAPE. SEAS 2-3FT
AREAWIDE...DOMINANT PDS ARND 7SEC TONIGHT AND ARND 8SEC ON TUESDAY.
WED-FRI...OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO ONSHORE BY LATE
WEEK AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION MID WEEK AND WEAKENS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1-3 FEET THROUGH
FRI.
SAT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS
BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE LATE SAT AS A LONG PERIOD SWELL
DEVELOPS AND CONTRIBUTES TO THE COMBINED SEAS.
SUN...CURRENT FORECAST FOR SHOWING NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS AS NORTH SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS DUE TO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF AROUND 1033MB CENTERED OVER SW OHIO SE
INDIANA BUILDING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FLORIDA STRAIT. SEAS BEGIN
TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS BY BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN 6 TO 7 FEET OR MORE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR WAS AT 3.0FT THIS MORNING...0.2FT
ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STATE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT DELAND HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY
JUST BELOW ACTION STAGE.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT THE APPROACHING
NEW MOON AND A SMALL EAST SWELL WILL LIKELY KEEP ABOVE NORMAL WATER
LEVELS NEAR THE COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 63 84 67 85 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 63 86 67 88 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 64 84 68 87 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 62 84 67 86 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 63 86 67 87 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 62 87 67 87 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 64 87 68 87 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 63 84 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
141 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NW GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NW FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE FROM SE MONTANA ACROSS OUR CWA AND OVER
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...RFW WAS ISSUED EARLIER BASED
ON TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. AS EXPECTED
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS HOWEVER WITH STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (REFLECTED
ON AREA VAD WIND PROFILES AND RAP SOUNDINGS)...THERE SHOULD BE 3HR
OF RFW CRITERIA OVER EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
WAS WHETHER 3HR CRITERIA WOULD BE MET FURTHER WEST. WHILE IT IS
MARGINAL THERE IS STILL A SOLID WINDOW FOR RFW AT LEAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE WARNING.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE PATTERN
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH NW FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. DEEP DRY AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL DESPITE A FEW PASSING
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND LOW TD VALUES WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S DESPITE WAA ALOFT. LOW LYING VALLEYS AND
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY SEE ISOLATED FROST CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WITH UPPER
LOW TRANSITIONING EASTWARD RISING HEIGHTS/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY NOT
WARM UP QUITE AS MUCH...HOWEVER MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING FOR THE
MOST PART A PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA.
THE EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WERE SOME AMPLIFICATION
WAS TAKEN PLACE AND OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHERE A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT SYSTEM WERE LOCATED IN A MEAN TROUGH.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE. THE SREF WAS STARTED OUT BEST WITH THE SURFACE
WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO START OUT TOO COLD.
THE NAM...CANADIAN AND ECMWF WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE SO WOULD EXPECT A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR TEMPERATURES TOO COOL OFF...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS. SO LOWERED MINS ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. RETURN FLOW/RECYCLED COOL AIR IS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE PRETTY CLOSE WITH PLENTY OF
SUN EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR THE CLUSTERING OF THE
GUIDANCE BUT TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER ESPECIALLY MY EASTERN AREAS
WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT NOT TOO FAR AWAY. SO MINS WILL BE TRICKY. WINDS ARE MUCH
LIGHTER IN THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF IT. TENDED TO GO WITH THE SLIGHTLY BELOW THE GUIDANCE.
THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THEY DIFFER ON TIMING/VALUES...MODELS DO SHOW
THE TEMPERATURES COOLING THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO EARLY HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH STEADY OR FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TENDED TOWARD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SINCE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
THAT. STILL MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN A SPLITTING TROUGH STARTS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS IS FASTER/LOWER WITH HEIGHTS THAN THE
ECMWF. ENSEMBLES DIFFER ON THIS AS WELL. IN GENERAL THEY DO KEEP
THIS TROUGH AS AN OPEN WAVE AND A LITTLE FASTER.
IF THE FASTER SPEED DOES WORK OUT...TROUGH MAY BE APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...NOT SURE IF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY MUCH MOISTURE OR DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
WORK CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT/SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. FOR THE MOST
PART A DRY FORECAST IS STILL APPROPRIATE. HOWEVER...THE INIT GAVE ME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MY SOUTHERN PORTION SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. AT THE SAME TIME
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SO
CONSIDERED THAT AND AFTER COLLABORATION...HAVE LEFT THAT IN.
THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A PRETTY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF SATURDAY WHEN A WARMUP STARTS.
CONSIDERING THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE
PLACE...BELIEVE THAT THE MINS THAT NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN WHAT
THE INIT GAVE. SO AFTER COLLABORATION DID LOWER THE MINS. WINDS DO
COME UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE EASTERN PORTION HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT. SO AFTER COLLABORATION...DID
LOWER SLIGHTLY IN MY EASTERN/NORTHEAST LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME LOOKS GOOD AND PLAN ON
NO ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TRANSITION
EASTWARD. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WINDS AT KGLD AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 18KT POSSIBLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
123 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NW GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NW FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE FROM SE MONTANA ACROSS OUR CWA AND OVER
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...RFW WAS ISSUED EARLIER BASED
ON TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. AS EXPECTED
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS HOWEVER WITH STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (REFLECTED
ON AREA VAD WIND PROFILES AND RAP SOUNDINGS)...THERE SHOULD BE 3HR
OF RFW CRITERIA OVER EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
WAS WHETHER 3HR CRITERIA WOULD BE MET FURTHER WEST. WHILE IT IS
MARGINAL THERE IS STILL A SOLID WINDOW FOR RFW AT LEAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE WARNING.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE PATTERN
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH NW FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. DEEP DRY AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL DESPITE A FEW PASSING
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND LOW TD VALUES WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S DESPITE WAA ALOFT. LOW LYING VALLEYS AND
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY SEE ISOLATED FROST CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WITH UPPER
LOW TRANSITIONING EASTWARD RISING HEIGHTS/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY NOT
WARM UP QUITE AS MUCH...HOWEVER MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ON THURSDAY...AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE A
DISTURBANCE TRAVELS THROUGH THE FLOW NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGH
PLAINS FOR FRIDAY. DRY AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE FRONT
FROM GENERATING PRECIP.
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS THE CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EAST TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...WITH THE GFS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS
TIME...GUIDANCE HAS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WEST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THE
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE ADVECTS TOWARDS THE REGION IN FRONT OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE FORECAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
ON THURSDAY BEFORE THURSDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GRADUALLY RISE IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY.
LOWS APPEAR TO STEADILY WARM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TRANSITION
EASTWARD. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WINDS AT KGLD AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 18KT POSSIBLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
OUR CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FROPA WITH STEEP PRESSURE RISES. AT THIS
TIME GUSTS 30-40 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.
UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT THEN TRANSITIONS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY. DUE TO A DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE A
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST
OVER EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES COME ACROSS THE FA IN THE FLOW. SOME LIFT IS
INDICATED BUT ADEQUATE MOISTURE IS LACKING. CHANCES FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW. CONSEQUENTLY,
POPS WILL BE NIL FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S. MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
EXIST IN EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH SUNDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. SATURDAY NIGHT MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO THE UPPER 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S THURSDAY TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND THEN BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH SOME BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT BECOMING BREEZY AGAIN ONCE MIXING BEGINS BY
MID MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
THIS AFTERNOON...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING WITHIN A
VERY DRY AIR MASS ASS HAVE LED TO RH VALUES DROPPING TO 15 PERCENT
OR LESS ACROSS OUR CWA. WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA AND
MAIN LOW AND MID LEVEL JET AXIS REMAINING NORTH HAS RESULTED N
WINDS REMAINING BELOW RFW CRITERIA. AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD STILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA...SO THERE SHOULD STILL BE A WINDOW FOR
25 MPH BEFORE SUNSET IN SW NEBRASKA/NE COLORADO. NO CHANGES
PLANNED TO CURRENT RFW AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY...VERY LOW TD VALUES WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR CWA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH VALUES IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S. UNIDIRECTIONAL
GRADIENT WILL BE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...SO WHILE THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON COULD SEE GUSTS 20-30 MPH THERE WILL ONLY BE A
SMALL WINDOW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN CWA FOR 25
MPH/LOWER RH VALUES. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION AND UNCERTAINTY OF 3HR OF RFW CONDITIONS. WITH ONGOING
RFW AND LOW CONFIDENCE THE DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUANCE OF WATCH DURING THIS UPDATE CYCLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1033 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
FOG HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED...AND WHAT IS LEFT HAS MOSTLY LIFTED
INTO A STRATUS DECK AND SHOULD BE GONE SHORTLY. HAVE UPDATED
TIMING OF CLOUD CLOUD INCREASE TODAY BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODELS. ALSO UPDATED THE TIMING OF THE POP
TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND A BIT FASTER TO
DEPART TONIGHT...BASED ON A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW 12Z NAM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
THE FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT NOT AS BAD AS
YESTERDAY MORNING. DID UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING
ON OVER FAR EAST KENTUCKY. TO THE NORTHWEST...A FAIRLY STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT APPROACHING KENTUCKY. THE HIGH HAS
BEEN ABLE TO KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR AND THIS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESTABLISHING A GOOD RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES. READINGS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN
THE EAST WHILE RIDGES ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S.
DEW POINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. LIGHT WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIR MIXED UP AT MOST OF THE
OBS SITES...KEEPING THE FOG AT BAY...SO FAR. STILL EXPECT RIVER
VALLEY FOG TO FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAWN.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW A
FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WITH ITS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS
EVENING ITS ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY.
IN ITS WAKE...LATER TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE STATE
AS THE TROUGH/S ENERGY MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATING
LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE AROUND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE AS A MAINLY DRY
ONE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT
WILL BREAKOUT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
A POSSIBILITY GIVEN SOME SHEAR AND LIMITED...BUT NON-ZERO...
INSTABILITY. THIS FRONT...AND WHATEVER CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES
IT...MOVES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY IN THE EVENING WITH A BRIEF SHOT
OF QPF ANTICIPATED. COOLER WEATHER MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY ON
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EVEN AS SOME SUNSHINE RETURNS.
THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T
AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
TUESDAY. DID HAVE TO MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT...RELATIVE ELEVATION
BASED...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN SOME SMALLER TWEAKS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
DRIER SIDE OF A RAPIDLY CLIMBING MOS CONSENSUS FOR THE FROPA THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE CARRIED SINGLE DIGITS POPS...IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES ARE THEN FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER
UPPER TROUGH...BRINGING WITH THEM REPEATED SHOTS OF COLD CANADIAN
AIR THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGIONS AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. IN THE MEANTIME...A
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE THE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHEN A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
SURFACE RIDGES BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND MOVES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WHILE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PROVIDED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR OUR FIRST MAJOR FROST EVENTS OF THE EARLY FALL
SEASON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST NIGHTS FOR FROST WILL
BE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...WHEN WE WILL BE SEEING DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S UNDER CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE NEXT
COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN OUR VALLEYS MAY
SEE SOME MIN READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE
EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S IN OUR VALLEYS...AS A
PASSING SHORT WAVE ALOFT BRINGS A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO
THE REGION. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE TWO NIGHTS COULD POSSIBLE SEE
OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
OUT THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAXES IN THE UPPER 60S EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...A COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN AS A
SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT BRING REPEATED ROUNDS OF COLD AIR
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO
THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE AREA STAYING
VFR WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN THE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM JUST AS THAT
FRONT GOES THROUGH IN THE EVENING. EXCEPT FOR FROPA...CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K FT THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
810 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
THE FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT NOT AS BAD AS
YESTERDAY MORNING. DID UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING
ON OVER FAR EAST KENTUCKY. TO THE NORTHWEST...A FAIRLY STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT APPROACHING KENTUCKY. THE HIGH HAS
BEEN ABLE TO KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR AND THIS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESTABLISHING A GOOD RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES. READINGS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN
THE EAST WHILE RIDGES ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. LIGHT WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIR MIXED UP AT MOST OF THE
OBS SITES...KEEPING THE FOG AT BAY...SO FAR. STILL EXPECT RIVER
VALLEY FOG TO FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAWN.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW A
FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WITH ITS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS
EVENING ITS ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY.
IN ITS WAKE...LATER TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE STATE
AS THE TROUGH/S ENERGY MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATING
LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE AROUND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE AS A MAINLY DRY
ONE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT
WILL BREAKOUT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
A POSSIBILITY GIVEN SOME SHEAR AND LIMITED...BUT NON-ZERO...
INSTABILITY. THIS FRONT...AND WHATEVER CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES
IT...MOVES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY IN THE EVENING WITH A BRIEF SHOT
OF QPF ANTICIPATED. COOLER WEATHER MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY ON
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EVEN AS SOME SUNSHINE RETURNS.
THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T
AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
TUESDAY. DID HAVE TO MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT...RELATIVE ELEVATION
BASED...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN SOME SMALLER TWEAKS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
DRIER SIDE OF A RAPIDLY CLIMBING MOS CONSENSUS FOR THE FROPA THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE CARRIED SINGLE DIGITS POPS...IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES ARE THEN FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER
UPPER TROUGH...BRINGING WITH THEM REPEATED SHOTS OF COLD CANADIAN
AIR THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGIONS AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. IN THE MEANTIME...A
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE THE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHEN A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
SURFACE RIDGES BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND MOVES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WHILE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PROVIDED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR OUR FIRST MAJOR FROST EVENTS OF THE EARLY FALL
SEASON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST NIGHTS FOR FROST WILL
BE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...WHEN WE WILL BE SEEING DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S UNDER CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE NEXT
COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN OUR VALLEYS MAY
SEE SOME MIN READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE
EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S IN OUR VALLEYS...AS A
PASSING SHORT WAVE ALOFT BRINGS A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO
THE REGION. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE TWO NIGHTS COULD POSSIBLE SEE
OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
OUT THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAXES IN THE UPPER 60S EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...A COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN AS A
SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT BRING REPEATED ROUNDS OF COLD AIR
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO
THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE AREA STAYING
VFR WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN THE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM JUST AS THAT
FRONT GOES THROUGH IN THE EVENING. EXCEPT FOR FROPA...CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K FT THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
340 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING
ON OVER FAR EAST KENTUCKY. TO THE NORTHWEST...A FAIRLY STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT APPROACHING KENTUCKY. THE HIGH HAS
BEEN ABLE TO KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR AND THIS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESTABLISHING A GOOD RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES. READINGS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN
THE EAST WHILE RIDGES ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. LIGHT WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIR MIXED UP AT MOST OF THE
OBS SITES...KEEPING THE FOG AT BAY...SO FAR. STILL EXPECT RIVER
VALLEY FOG TO FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAWN.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW A
FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WITH ITS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS
EVENING ITS ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY.
IN ITS WAKE...LATER TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE STATE
AS THE TROUGH/S ENERGY MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATING
LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE AROUND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF
THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE AS A MAINLY DRY
ONE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT
WILL BREAKOUT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
A POSSIBILITY GIVEN SOME SHEAR AND LIMITED...BUT NON-ZERO...
INSTABILITY. THIS FRONT...AND WHATEVER CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES
IT...MOVES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY IN THE EVENING WITH A BRIEF SHOT
OF QPF ANTICIPATED. COOLER WEATHER MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY ON
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EVEN AS SOME SUNSHINE RETURNS.
THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T
AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
TUESDAY. DID HAVE TO MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT...RELATIVE ELEVATION
BASED...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND
THEN SOME SMALLER TWEAKS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE
DRIER SIDE OF A RAPIDLY CLIMBING MOS CONSENSUS FOR THE FROPA THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE CARRIED SINGLE DIGITS POPS...IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES ARE THEN FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER
UPPER TROUGH...BRINGING WITH THEM REPEATED SHOTS OF COLD CANADIAN
AIR THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGIONS AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. IN THE MEANTIME...A
RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
WEEK. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE THE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
TIME FRAME...WHEN A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
SURFACE RIDGES BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND MOVES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WHILE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PROVIDED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR OUR FIRST MAJOR FROST EVENTS OF THE EARLY FALL
SEASON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST NIGHTS FOR FROST WILL
BE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...WHEN WE WILL BE SEEING DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S UNDER CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE NEXT
COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN OUR VALLEYS MAY
SEE SOME MIN READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE
EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S IN OUR VALLEYS...AS A
PASSING SHORT WAVE ALOFT BRINGS A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO
THE REGION. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE TWO NIGHTS COULD POSSIBLE SEE
OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
OUT THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAXES IN THE UPPER 60S EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...A COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN AS A
SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT BRING REPEATED ROUNDS OF COLD AIR
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO
THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE.
HOWEVER...MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP...BUT
NOT BE AS BAD AS LAST NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ONLY CARRIED SOME
MVFR FOG AT SOMERSET AND LOZ THROUGH DAWN. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE AREA STAYING VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN THE FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM JUST AS THAT FRONT GOES THROUGH IN THE EVENING.
EXPECT FOR FROPA...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K FT THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
750 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID-LVL TROUGH OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NE U.S. AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SFC...A LOW PRES SYSTEM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. COLD ADVECTION IN MOIST CYCLONIC NW
FLOW IS STILL PRODUCING ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR NW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SFC LOW SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY LIFTS QUICKLY EAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
BACKING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ALSO LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
TO END OVERNIGHT NCNTRL AND EAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO SKIRT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
WED. WEAK 700-300 MB Q-VECT CONVERGENCE FROM SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW-
LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ASSOC SFC TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE ERN THIRD OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON PER MODEL
QPF OUTPUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER
ALGER...LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING
SKIES TO RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING OVER THE WRN INTERIOR TO THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S EAST AND NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE TAIL OF TWO HALVES...WITH THE
FIRST HALF EXPERIENCING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION AND THE SECOND HALF WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST...AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE
AND TOWARDS LUCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE TOO
LIMITED FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE COLDEST
AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. A MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN AND THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AMPLIFY THE TROUGH OVER THE
REGION AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT (BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH) AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL
BE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT AROUND -8C. AS THAT COLD AIR ARRIVES...SHOULD SEE LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION PICK UP THROUGH THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POCKETS OF DRIER AIR SLIDING THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT WITH THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FAIRLY STRONG (DELTA-T
VALUES OF 16-20) WILL SHOW CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THAT
TIME FOR AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AND WE CAN FINE
TUNE THE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION PERIODS AS WE GET CLOSER. AS FOR
PRECIP TYPE...EXPECT IT TO START AS RAIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...BUT AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES IN IT WILL
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL) DUE TO THE WETBULB0 HEIGHTS CRASHING BELOW
700FT. WETBULB0 HEIGHTS DO TRY TO HANG ON BETWEEN 700-1300FT OVER
THE EASTERN CWA (AIDED BY THE LAKE MODIFIED AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR)
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THAT AREA FOR FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING TO MAINLY SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FORM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A NICE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO
SURGE TO 10C AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND POSSIBLY A
FEW 60S OVER THE FAR WEST. MODELS HAVE CHANGED UP THE THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STRONG LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN CANADA AND SWEEPING A TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THAT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY OR STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AT
THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...BACKING WINDS AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CLOUD DECK AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW LIFTING TO VFR AND THEN CLEARING OUT
FROM W TO E TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU WED AT
ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20-25KT LATE WED MORNING
AND AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED BLO GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW
GRADIENT WEAKENS BETWEEN LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND HIGH PRES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR NW WINDS 20-30 KTS...STRONGEST EAST
HALF TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT (GENERALLY TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS)
WINDS WILL THEN BACK W-SW ON WED AND BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS
STRONGEST WEST AND NCNTRL AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA.
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION TO SEE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW IN CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR GALES WOULD BE ON THU NIGHT-FRI FOR THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPER TROUGH AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
409 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHRTWV
ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER MOVING TO THE E...BRINGING 00Z-12Z H5
HGT FALLS UP TO 240M AT INL. DESPITE THE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ATTENDANT COLD FNT MOVING THRU THE
ERN CWA EARLY THIS AFTN IS PCPN FREE DUE TO DRYNESS OF THE MID LVLS
SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB. SKIES HAVE TURNED MOSUNNY FOLLOWING THE
COLD FROPA UNDER DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...BUT AREA OF DEEPER
MSTR DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND ASSOCIATED SECOND COLD
FNT MOVING THRU MN ARE BRINGING MORE CLDS TO THE W HALF AS
WELL AS SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN LK SUP/NW WI. WSW WINDS HAVE
BEEN GUSTING AS HI AS 30 TO 35 MPH AT SOME PLACES IN WI/WRN UPR MI
THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SECOND COLD FNT...BUT STRONGER NW WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSVD BEHIND THE SECOND FNT IN WRN MN/THE NRN
PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINDS/NEED FOR WIND
ADVYS AS WELL AS LAKE ENHANCED POPS.
TNGT...SHRTWV MOVING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SLOWLY ESEWD OVER THE NE HALF OF LK SUP THIS EVNG. ALTHOUGH THE
SHARPER DYANMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WL SLIDE TO
THE N OF UPR MI...BACKWASH MSTR/SHARP CYC FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF
SFC LO AND ATTENDANT SECOND COLD FNT WL BRING SOME SHOWERS W-E LATE
THIS AFTN/EVNG. AS SHARPER CYC NNW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND H85
TEMPS SLOWLY COOL BEHIND THE FROPA...SCT TO NMRS LK ENHANCED SHOWERS
WL LINGER DOWNWIND OF LK SUP UNDER THE DEEP MSTR IN SPITE OF LARGER
SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV.
THE PRES GRADIENT/H925 WINDS SPEEDS ARE FCST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY WITH
TIME THRU THE NGT...SO WINDS OVER UPR MI WL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
50 MPH GUSTS OBSVD UPSTREAM. THE CAA BEHIND THE FROPA AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND THE FNT ARE ALSO FCST TO BE MODERATE...BUT
OPTED TO RETAIN GOING WIND ADVY FOR THE KEWEENAW GIVEN FAVORABLE
EXPOSURE AND APRCH OF PRES RISE CENTER/STRONGER ISALLOBARIC WIND
AIMED AT THAT AREA IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
TUE...SHARP PRES GRADIENT AND RIBBON OF STRONGER H925 NW WINDS UP
TO 35 KTS ARE FCST TO BE OVER UPR MI AT 12Z TUE. FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE TRAILING/WEAKENING PRES RISE CENTER BY 18Z...THE PRES
GRADIENT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH. CONSIDERED A WIND ADVY FOR THE MORE
EXPOSED ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES...BUT OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ATTM GIVEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES RISE CENTER/GRADIENT AND MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THIS
AREA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WL PERSIST THRU THE DAY...THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF PRES RISE CENTER AT 18Z.
UPR MI WL REMAIN UNDER H85 THERMAL TROF WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO
AS ABOUT -2C IN LLVL NW FLOW AHEAD OF HI PRES MOVING INTO MN...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLDS TO LINGER EVEN IF THE SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISHES
WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE/WEAKENING CYC FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. WITH THE CLDS AND H85 THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
TEMPS TO RISE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE DEGREES FM THE MRNG LOWS. TUE WL
FEEL MUCH MORE AUTUMNAL THAN RECENT DAYS EVEN IF THE WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH IN THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD (TUESDAY
NIGHT)...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A POCKET OF 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -1 TO -2C OVER THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT
THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/CLOUDS (LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS IN THE LOWER
50S) TO CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT BELTS IN THE
EVENING EAST AND THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT OVER THE EAST...BUT THE WEST AND AREAS NEAR THE WISCONSIN
BORDER SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING. THAT CLEARING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOWARDS FREEZING. THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH OR MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...THE
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL STAY PRIMIARLY OVER
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS MOISTURE STARVED...BUT THERE SHOULD
BE SOME CLOUDS BRUSHING THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER TOWARDS LUCE COUNTY. A MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA) WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. AS THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN AND LOWER
MICHIGAN...IT WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
(STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION) AND QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY
FRIDAY. IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION AS THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH (BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE STAYS TO THE SOUTH)...BUT IT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THAT COLDER AIR (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
-6 TO -9C BY FRIDAY NIGHT) AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. THE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND AREAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND THIRD
SHORTWAVE. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND ALLOW WARMER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE DIURNAL DISRUPTION TO
THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITAION AND AIDED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING/DRYING AHEAD OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR SURGING IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A MIX OR CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW FOR AREAS OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL U.P..
PRECIPITATION TYPE ON FRIDAY LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE
ARRIVIAL OF THE COLDEST AIR (WITH THE 00Z ECMWF TRAILING THE 12Z
GFS BY AROUND 6HRS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT). THAT
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR WOULD PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW TO REMAIN MIXED IN WITH RAIN OVER THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY DUE TO 1000-850MB THICKNESSES (FALLING
BELOW 1300)...CLOUD MOVING INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AND WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS (FALLING BELOW 700FT). HAVE SHOWN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITIONED TO ALL SNOW HEADING INTO THE FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACCUMULATION ON
GRASSY/LEAF COVERED SURFACES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
AND NORTH CENTRAL ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BACKING WINDS SUNDAY AND FLOW BECOMING ZONAL ALOFT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING A BROAD LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT
SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE POSITION OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE BOTH TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT BOTH ARE CONSISTENT IN IT
BEING VERY NEAR THE U.P..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
AS DEEPER MSTR UNDER SHARP CYC FLOW OVERSPREADS UPR MI W-E THIS AFTN
AHEAD OF A LO PRES TROF...EXPECT CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR W-E...FIRST AT IWD BY 20Z AND LAST AT SAW ARND
01Z TUE. GUSTY WSW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS WL SHIFT TO THE NW AND GUST
AS HI AS 30-35 KTS TNGT UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AND AHEAD OF
A PRES RISE CENTER BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
MOST LIKELY AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. THESE WINDS WL GRDLY
DIMINISH ON TUE MRNG AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. WITH ADDITIONAL
MOISTENING OVER LK SUP IN THE CYC FLOW...MVFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST
THRU THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL 3 SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
EXPECT WIDESPREAD NW GALES TO 35 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE W HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER THE E HALF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT/ARRIVAL OF SHARPER PRES GRADIENT.
THESE GALES WILL THEN DIMINISH W-E ON TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A HI
PRES RDG/WEAKER GRADIENT. A TYPICAL FALL PATTERN WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH PASSAGE OF SEVERAL LO PRES TROUGHS.
SHIFTING WINDS WILL BE UP TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS AND SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WOULD BE
ON THU NIGHT-FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPER TROUGH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ248-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ244>247-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
/1 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240-241-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ242-243.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
136 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO ABOUT 26 KNOTS AND TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z AND GUSTS DIE OFF. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS TRYING
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN
PER REGIONAL RADAR. VERY DRY AIR THE LOWER LEVELS IS MAKING IT HARD
FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND BEFORE EVAPORATING
HOWEVER...AND EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY FOR VIRGA AND SPRINKLES AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A WINDOW OF LOW-END VFR TO HIGH-END MVFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE DRIER AIR RETURNS
ON THE BACKSIDE AND LIFTS CEILINGS ABOVE 5000 FEET ONCE AGAIN THIS
EVENING. A SECONDARY AND STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD DROP CEILINGS MORE SOLIDLY INTO MVFR CATEGORY
AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR DTW...WINDOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
BRIEF...OCCURRING IN THE 19Z TO 00Z TIMEFRAME. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
CEILINGS TO FALL AS LOW AS HIGH-END MVFR. OTHERWISE...SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 21Z BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE TERMINAL. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR AND
BRING GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST AFTER ABOUT 10Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY HIGH WITH CEILINGS
BELOW 5000 FEET EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1243 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF RETURNS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD
FRONT OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
STRONGLY SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND...AND
GIVEN DRY AIR IN 12Z RAOBS...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A WINDOW OF
SPRINKLES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MIXING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO ECLIPSE 70 DEGREES ALREADY IN
MOST LOCATIONS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S STILL
LOOK ON TRACK. BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
STILL EXPECTED...BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND GUSTY CONDITIONS AGAIN
BY SUNRISE.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 407 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DIURNAL MIXING COMMENCES, WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
SUPPORT WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS YESTERDAY SUGGEST
RAISING FORECAST HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY. MID TO UPPER 70S
WILL BE EASILY ACHIEVABLE WITH 80 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THE METRO AREA.
AS IMPRESSIVE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IN REGARD TO STRENGTH, IT IS
EQUALLY UNIMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM.
MODEL PROGS INDICATE JUST A THIN LAYER OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT
AROUND 3KFT AGL STRINGING NORTH IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THIS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A SECOND SOURCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER POTENTIAL, BUT IT IS ALSO UNLIKELY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT. CONVERGENT AND DYNAMIC
FORCING WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR, AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS AS IT HAS STARTED TO
PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY IN THE POST-SURFACE
FRONT ENVIRONMENT. 22Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING AT KPTK CAPTURES THE
ENVIRONMENT WELL AND CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DRY AIR WILL ALREADY BE FULLY IN PLACE BELOW
10KFT. THEREFORE, THE DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED.
A MODEST WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO W WILL ACCOMPANY AFTERNOON FROPA BUT
SURFACE COLD AIR WILL LAG BY A WIDE MARGIN. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
DIURNAL GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH AS USUAL WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
SUNSET, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL CWA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. COLD
ADVECTION AT 925MB AND BELOW WILL GET UNDERWAY IN EARNEST BY AROUND
06Z, MIXING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY, EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND WESTERLY WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO
20 TO 25 MPH.
LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STEADY AND CONTINUOUS SUPPRESSION OF GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE
COMPLETE WITH A RETURN OF HIGH FREQUENCY/AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES.
THE STRONG PV ANOMALY RESIDING WITHIN A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON TO START THE
PERIOD ON TUESDAY. SOME INCREASE IN THE WAVELENGTH OF THE FEATURE
WILL KEEP IT OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. THE ABSOLUTE
VORTICITY CHARTS SUGGEST SOME DURATION OF FAIRLY STRONG MIDLEVEL
SUBSIDENCE FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT DON/T REALLY THINK IT WILL HAVE
MUCH OF AN IMPACT WITH REGARDS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE DRIVER
FOR THE WEATHER ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE OVERWHELMING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
TARGET STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SATURATION IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER.
THIS WILL BE GOOD FOR OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH
STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A MENTION OF SPRINKLES WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP
NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER. CAMS AND NAM CONVERGENCE FIELDS HIGHLIGHT
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 94 AND AREAS
DOWNWIND OF SAGINAW BAY WITH A LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR CONNECTION.
GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUD...WENT VERY AGRESSIVE WITH LOWERING OFF OF
GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY TEMPERATURES. THE OUTGOING FORECAST WILL CALL
FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STUCK IN THE 50S. IN ADDITION...WENT
VERY AGGRESSIVE FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED
MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MOVE
MUCH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
A CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD IS SET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A
CONFLICTING SETUP. SPECIFICALLY...WILL BE LOOKING AT A VERY STRONG
JET CORE SNAKING/CARVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDATLANTIC. THE CONFLICT STEMS FROM A LACK OF A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION/DEEP SATURATION RESIDING TO THE NORTH OF THE JET
AXIS/EXIT REGION. INSTEAD...MODELS ADVERTISE A FAIRLY TREMENDOUS
AMOUNT OF DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. PROBABLY SOME RESULT OF A DOUBLE JET CORE CONFIGURATION.
SO THE QUESTION REALLY COMES DOWN TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN
DOWNWARD AND ERODE THE EXISTING STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS. MODELS SEEM
TO BE IN SOME FEEDBACK LOOP WHERE CLOUD BECOMES LESS OPTICALLY THICK
WHICH CAUSES MIXING HEIGHTS TO RISE ENOUGH TO CAUSE CLOUD EROSION.
WILL STICK TO THE THEME HERE AND GO AGGRESSIVE/PESSIMISTIC WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS REALLY ON THE
WARM SIDE FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT WILL STICK TO THE 50S. GIVEN THE
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEPTHS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN THE
DOOR TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ACTIVE MARINE PERIOD THIS WEEK.
DEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL TUESDAY
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ST
CLAIR AND THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
A GALE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR POTENTIAL MARGINAL GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON PRIMARILY FOR THE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR LHZ361-
362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....HLO
UPDATE.......HLO
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1243 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF RETURNS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD
FRONT OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
STRONGLY SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND...AND
GIVEN DRY AIR IN 12Z RAOBS...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A WINDOW OF
SPRINKLES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MIXING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO ECLIPSE 70 DEGREES ALREADY IN
MOST LOCATIONS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S STILL
LOOK ON TRACK. BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
STILL EXPECTED...BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND GUSTY CONDITIONS AGAIN
BY SUNRISE.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 641 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ONCE MIXING
COMMENCES. WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...VEERING TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA 21-01Z. NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO DIMINISH
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A
RAPID DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS LATE AS WIND GUSTS PICK BACK UP TO
20+KTS AND MVFR STRATUS OVERSPREADS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
FOR DTW...BRIEF WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, IMPACTFUL CLOUD
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 09Z. COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE DTW WITH
LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A VEERING OF WINDS TO 240 DEGREES AT
APPROXIMATELY 00Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT THIS AFTN. HIGH AFTER 10Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 407 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DIURNAL MIXING COMMENCES, WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
SUPPORT WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS YESTERDAY SUGGEST
RAISING FORECAST HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY. MID TO UPPER 70S
WILL BE EASILY ACHIEVABLE WITH 80 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THE METRO AREA.
AS IMPRESSIVE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IN REGARD TO STRENGTH, IT IS
EQUALLY UNIMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM.
MODEL PROGS INDICATE JUST A THIN LAYER OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT
AROUND 3KFT AGL STRINGING NORTH IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THIS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A SECOND SOURCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER POTENTIAL, BUT IT IS ALSO UNLIKELY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT. CONVERGENT AND DYNAMIC
FORCING WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR, AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS AS IT HAS STARTED TO
PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY IN THE POST-SURFACE
FRONT ENVIRONMENT. 22Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING AT KPTK CAPTURES THE
ENVIRONMENT WELL AND CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DRY AIR WILL ALREADY BE FULLY IN PLACE BELOW
10KFT. THEREFORE, THE DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED.
A MODEST WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO W WILL ACCOMPANY AFTERNOON FROPA BUT
SURFACE COLD AIR WILL LAG BY A WIDE MARGIN. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
DIURNAL GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH AS USUAL WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
SUNSET, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL CWA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. COLD
ADVECTION AT 925MB AND BELOW WILL GET UNDERWAY IN EARNEST BY AROUND
06Z, MIXING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY, EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND WESTERLY WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO
20 TO 25 MPH.
LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STEADY AND CONTINUOUS SUPPRESSION OF GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE
COMPLETE WITH A RETURN OF HIGH FREQUENCY/AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES.
THE STRONG PV ANOMALY RESIDING WITHIN A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON TO START THE
PERIOD ON TUESDAY. SOME INCREASE IN THE WAVELENGTH OF THE FEATURE
WILL KEEP IT OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. THE ABSOLUTE
VORTICITY CHARTS SUGGEST SOME DURATION OF FAIRLY STRONG MIDLEVEL
SUBSIDENCE FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT DON/T REALLY THINK IT WILL HAVE
MUCH OF AN IMPACT WITH REGARDS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE DRIVER
FOR THE WEATHER ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE OVERWHELMING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS
TARGET STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SATURATION IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER.
THIS WILL BE GOOD FOR OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH
STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A MENTION OF SPRINKLES WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP
NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER. CAMS AND NAM CONVERGENCE FIELDS HIGHLIGHT
THE BEST POTENTIAL TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 94 AND AREAS
DOWNWIND OF SAGINAW BAY WITH A LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR CONNECTION.
GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUD...WENT VERY AGRESSIVE WITH LOWERING OFF OF
GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY TEMPERATURES. THE OUTGOING FORECAST WILL CALL
FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STUCK IN THE 50S. IN ADDITION...WENT
VERY AGGRESSIVE FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED
MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MOVE
MUCH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
A CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD IS SET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A
CONFLICTING SETUP. SPECIFICALLY...WILL BE LOOKING AT A VERY STRONG
JET CORE SNAKING/CARVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDATLANTIC. THE CONFLICT STEMS FROM A LACK OF A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION/DEEP SATURATION RESIDING TO THE NORTH OF THE JET
AXIS/EXIT REGION. INSTEAD...MODELS ADVERTISE A FAIRLY TREMENDOUS
AMOUNT OF DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. PROBABLY SOME RESULT OF A DOUBLE JET CORE CONFIGURATION.
SO THE QUESTION REALLY COMES DOWN TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN
DOWNWARD AND ERODE THE EXISTING STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS. MODELS SEEM
TO BE IN SOME FEEDBACK LOOP WHERE CLOUD BECOMES LESS OPTICALLY THICK
WHICH CAUSES MIXING HEIGHTS TO RISE ENOUGH TO CAUSE CLOUD EROSION.
WILL STICK TO THE THEME HERE AND GO AGGRESSIVE/PESSIMISTIC WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS REALLY ON THE
WARM SIDE FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT WILL STICK TO THE 50S. GIVEN THE
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEPTHS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN THE
DOOR TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ACTIVE MARINE PERIOD THIS WEEK.
DEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL TUESDAY
EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ST
CLAIR AND THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
A GALE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR POTENTIAL MARGINAL GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON PRIMARILY FOR THE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR LHZ361-
362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......HLO
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
641 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ONCE MIXING
COMMENCES. WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...VEERING TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA 21-01Z. NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO DIMINISH
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A
RAPID DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS LATE AS WIND GUSTS PICK BACK UP TO
20+KTS AND MVFR STRATUS OVERSPREADS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
FOR DTW...BRIEF WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, IMPACTFUL CLOUD
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 09Z. COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE DTW WITH
LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A VEERING OF WINDS TO 240 DEGREES AT
APPROXIMATELY 00Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT THIS AFTN. HIGH AFTER 10Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 407 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DIURNAL MIXING COMMENCES, WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
SUPPORT WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS YESTERDAY SUGGEST
RAISING FORECAST HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY. MID TO UPPER 70S
WILL BE EASILY ACHIEVABLE WITH 80 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THE METRO AREA.
AS IMPRESSIVE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IN REGARD TO STRENGTH, IT IS
EQUALLY UNIMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM.
MODEL PROGS INDICATE JUST A THIN LAYER OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT
AROUND 3KFT AGL STRINGING NORTH IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THIS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A SECOND SOURCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER POTENTIAL, BUT IT IS ALSO UNLIKELY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT. CONVERGENT AND DYNAMIC
FORCING WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR, AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS AS IT HAS STARTED TO
PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY IN THE POST-SURFACE
FRONT ENVIRONMENT. 22Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING AT KPTK CAPTURES THE
ENVIRONMENT WELL AND CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DRY AIR WILL ALREADY BE FULLY IN PLACE BELOW
10KFT. THEREFORE, THE DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED.
A MODEST WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO W WILL ACCOMPANY AFTERNOON FROPA BUT
SURFACE COLD AIR WILL LAG BY A WIDE MARGIN. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
DIURNAL GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH AS USUAL WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
SUNSET, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL CWA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. COLD
ADVECTION AT 925MB AND BELOW WILL GET UNDERWAY IN EARNEST BY AROUND
06Z, MIXING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY, EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND WESTERLY WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO
20 TO 25 MPH.
LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STEADY AND CONTINUOUS SUPPRESSION OF GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE
COMPLETE WITH A RETURN OF HIGH FREQUENCY/AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES.
THE STRONG PV ANOMALY RESIDING WITHIN A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON TO START THE
PERIOD ON TUESDAY. SOME INCREASE IN THE WAVLENGTH OF THE FEATURE
WILL KEEP IT OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. THE ABSOLUTE
VORTICITY CHARTS SUGGEST SOME DURATION OF FAIRLY STRONG MIDLEVEL
SUBSIDENCE FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT DON/T REALLY THINK IT WILL HAVE
MUCH OF AN IMPACT WITH REGARDS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE DRIVER
FOR THE WEATHER ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE OVERWHELMING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS TARGET
STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SATURATION IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER. THIS WILL
BE GOOD FOR OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER. CAMS AND
NAM CONVERGENCE FIELDS HIGHLIGHT THE BEST POTENTIAL TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I 94 AND AREAS DOWNWIND OF SAGINAW BAY WITH A LAKE
MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR CONNECTION. GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUD...WENT VERY
AGGRESIVE WITH LOWERING OFF OF GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY TEMEPRATURES.
THE OUTGOING FORECAST WILL CALL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STUCK IN
THE 50S. IN ADDITION...WENT VERY AGGRESSIVE FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO MOVE MUCH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES.
A CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD IS SET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A
CONFLICTING SETUP. SPECIFICALLY...WILL BE LOOKING AT A VERY STRONG
JET CORE SNAKING/CARVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDATLANTIC. THE CONFLICT STEMS FROM A LACK OF A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION/DEEP SATURATION RESIDING TO THE NORTH OF THE JET
AXIS/EXIT REGION. INSTEAD...MODELS ADVERTISE A FAIRLY TREMENDOUS
AMOUNT OF DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. PROBABLY SOME RESULT OF A DOUBLE JET CORE CONFIGURATION.
SO THE QUESTION REALLY COMES DOWN TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN
DOWNWARD AND ERODE THE EXISTING STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS. MODELS SEEM
TO BE IN SOME FEEDBACK LOOP WHERE CLOUD BECOMES LESS OPTICALLY THICK
WHICH CAUSES MIXING HEIGHTS TO RISE ENOUGH TO CAUSE CLOUD EROSION.
WILL STICK TO THE THEME HERE AND GO AGGRESSIVE/PESSIMISTIC WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS REALLY ON THE
WARM SIDE FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT WILL STICK TO THE 50S. GIVEN THE
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEPTHS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN THE
DOOR TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ACTIVE MARINE PERIOD THIS WEEK.
DEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS AREWIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY BEGINNING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ST CLAIR AND THE
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE BEGINNING THIS EVENING. A GALE WATCH
HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR POTENTIAL MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON PRIMARILY FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR LHZ361-
362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
407 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DIURNAL MIXING COMMENCES, WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN
SUPPORT WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS YESTERDAY SUGGEST
RAISING FORECAST HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY. MID TO UPPER 70S
WILL BE EASILY ACHIEVABLE WITH 80 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THE METRO AREA.
AS IMPRESSIVE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IN REGARD TO STRENGTH, IT IS
EQUALLY UNIMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM.
MODEL PROGS INDICATE JUST A THIN LAYER OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT
AROUND 3KFT AGL STRINGING NORTH IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THIS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A SECOND SOURCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER POTENTIAL, BUT IT IS ALSO UNLIKELY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT. CONVERGENT AND DYNAMIC
FORCING WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR, AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS AS IT HAS STARTED TO
PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY IN THE POST-SURFACE
FRONT ENVIRONMENT. 22Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING AT KPTK CAPTURES THE
ENVIRONMENT WELL AND CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DRY AIR WILL ALREADY BE FULLY IN PLACE BELOW
10KFT. THEREFORE, THE DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED.
A MODEST WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO W WILL ACCOMPANY AFTERNOON FROPA BUT
SURFACE COLD AIR WILL LAG BY A WIDE MARGIN. AS A RESULT, EXPECT
DIURNAL GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH AS USUAL WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
SUNSET, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL CWA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. COLD
ADVECTION AT 925MB AND BELOW WILL GET UNDERWAY IN EARNEST BY AROUND
06Z, MIXING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY, EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND WESTERLY WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO
20 TO 25 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STEADY AND CONTINUOUS SUPPRESSION OF GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE
COMPLETE WITH A RETURN OF HIGH FREQUENCY/AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES.
THE STRONG PV ANOMALY RESIDING WITHIN A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON TO START THE
PERIOD ON TUESDAY. SOME INCREASE IN THE WAVLENGTH OF THE FEATURE
WILL KEEP IT OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. THE ABSOLUTE
VORTICITY CHARTS SUGGEST SOME DURATION OF FAIRLY STRONG MIDLEVEL
SUBSIDENCE FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT DON/T REALLY THINK IT WILL HAVE
MUCH OF AN IMPACT WITH REGARDS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE DRIVER
FOR THE WEATHER ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE OVERWHELMING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS TARGET
STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SATURATION IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER. THIS WILL
BE GOOD FOR OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A MENTION OF
SPRINKLES WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER. CAMS AND
NAM CONVERGENCE FIELDS HIGHLIGHT THE BEST POTENTIAL TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I 94 AND AREAS DOWNWIND OF SAGINAW BAY WITH A LAKE
MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR CONNECTION. GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUD...WENT VERY
AGGRESIVE WITH LOWERING OFF OF GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY TEMEPRATURES.
THE OUTGOING FORECAST WILL CALL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STUCK IN
THE 50S. IN ADDITION...WENT VERY AGGRESSIVE FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO MOVE MUCH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES.
A CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD IS SET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A
CONFLICTING SETUP. SPECIFICALLY...WILL BE LOOKING AT A VERY STRONG
JET CORE SNAKING/CARVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDATLANTIC. THE CONFLICT STEMS FROM A LACK OF A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION/DEEP SATURATION RESIDING TO THE NORTH OF THE JET
AXIS/EXIT REGION. INSTEAD...MODELS ADVERTISE A FAIRLY TREMENDOUS
AMOUNT OF DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. PROBABLY SOME RESULT OF A DOUBLE JET CORE CONFIGURATION.
SO THE QUESTION REALLY COMES DOWN TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN
DOWNWARD AND ERODE THE EXISTING STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS. MODELS SEEM
TO BE IN SOME FEEDBACK LOOP WHERE CLOUD BECOMES LESS OPTICALLY THICK
WHICH CAUSES MIXING HEIGHTS TO RISE ENOUGH TO CAUSE CLOUD EROSION.
WILL STICK TO THE THEME HERE AND GO AGGRESSIVE/PESSIMISTIC WITH THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS REALLY ON THE
WARM SIDE FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT WILL STICK TO THE 50S. GIVEN THE
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEPTHS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN THE
DOOR TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ACTIVE MARINE PERIOD THIS WEEK.
DEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS AREWIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY BEGINNING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ST CLAIR AND THE
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE BEGINNING THIS EVENING. A GALE WATCH
HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR POTENTIAL MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON PRIMARILY FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1152 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
A LIGHT S-SW WIND /8-12KTS/ WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A
RESULT OF A STEADY GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
COURSE OF THE MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT A
RATHER ABRUPT INCREASE IN WINDS BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THOUGH THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE 3500-5K FT LAYER WILL SUPPORT
SOME SCT TO PERHAPS BKN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH SE MI LATE MON AFTERNOON. LACK OF MOISTURE DEPTH WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW. NOT MUCH OF A WIND DIRECTION SHIFT IS
EXPECTED EITHER...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FOR DTW...A STEADY INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER
13Z WITH THE EXPECTED SHALLOW INVERSION. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SUPPORTING OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM...A BKN CLOUD DECK AT/OR BELOW 5000
FT WILL BE PUSHED BACK UNTIL MID MON AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT MON AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR LHZ361-
362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LEZ444.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
332 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A GENERAL
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA ON THE NRN FLANK OF
UPR RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE PLAINS. AT
THE LLVLS...PERSISTENT WSW FLOW BTWN HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND
AREA OF LO PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA IS ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND DRY AIRMASS/AREA OF H85 TEMPS AOA 20C OVER MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL
CONUS INTO THE UPR LKS. THE COMBINATION OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND THE UNSEASONABLE H85
WARMTH IS RESULTING IN SOME RECORD/NEAR RECORD TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 70S AND EVEN THE 80S THIS AFTN AWAY FM LK MI MODERATION.
LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A POTENT SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW IS MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...RESULTING IN 12HR H5 HGT FALLS
UP TO 150M AND SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40-50 KTS OVER MONTANA.
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON FCST SURGE OF LLVL MSTR
SHOWN BY SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS INTO THE UPR LKS TNGT AHEAD OF
COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV TO THE W AND THEN POPS/WINDS ON MON
AS POTENT SHRTWV NOW APRCHG THE NRN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPR LKS.
TNGT...THIS EVNG WL BE MOCLR WITH WARM AND DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING.
BUT OVERNGT AS UPR SHRTWV MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND INTO
NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z...ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT IS FCST
TO SWING THRU THE WRN CWA AND REACH THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 12Z.
DESPITE 12HR H5 HGT FALLS FCST UP 150-200M AND A BAND OF DPVA/H85-5
QVECTOR CNVGC...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE FROPA WL BE A DRY ONE
GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MSTR INFLOW. BUT SEVERAL OF THE SHORTER TERM
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM...INDICATE STRENGTHENING LLVL SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WL ADVECT MORE LLVL MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS AND
BRING SOME LO CLDS. CONSIDERING THE WARMTH/DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS AND
STEADY WINDS THAT WOULD RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL/INCRS IN NEAR
SFC RH...FAVOR THE DRIER MODEL SCENARIOS THAT SHOW LOWER NEAR SFC
RH/LESS IN THE WAY OF LO CLDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...W WINDS
COULD GUST AS HI AS 25 TO 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH INCRSG CAA/
INSTABILITY.
MON...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE SHRTWV AS A
SECOND JET STREAK CORE DIGS INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY AND
AMPLIFIES THE ACCOMPANYING UPR TROFFING. THIS JET CORE ALSO HAS
RESULTED IN A SHARPER TRAILING SECOND SFC COLD FNT IN MN...WITH THE
RESULT A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER SFC WINDS OVER UPR MI UNTIL
THAT SECOND FNT/TROF PASSES LATE ON MON OR EVEN MON EVNG. SINCE THE
LLVL WINDS WL BE WEAKER AND MORE BACKED TO THE SW AND H85 TEMPS DO
NOT FALL AS QUICKLY WITH A HINT OF AN H85 THERMAL RDG AHEAD OF THE
SECOND FNT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY...WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LESS
EXPOSED KEWEENAW WL BE WEAKER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTN. FOR THIS REASON...DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVY FOR
THAT AREA UNTIL 00Z TUE. DRY SLOTTING FOLLOWING THE MRNG COLD FROPA
WL GRDLY GIVE WAY TO MORE CLDS AS AREA OF HIER RH WITHIN DEEP CYC
FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF CLOSED LO TRACKING THRU ONTARIO OVERSPREADS
THE AREA. HI CHC/LIKELY POPS WL RETURN OVER THE W DURING THE AFTN
WITH THE CORE OF THE DEEPER MSTR IN ADVANCE OF THE TRAILING SECOND
COLD FNT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE MUCH LOWER THAN TDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKWASH MSTR/CLDS WL ARRIVE EARLIER FOLLOWING
THE DRY SLOTTING...MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S WL STILL BE ABV NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
MODEL TIMING WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM HAS SLOWED BY 6-12 HOURS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. AT 12Z TUE...THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC
TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL BE E OF THE CWA AND QUICKLY MOVING E...MAKING
FOR PRESSURE RISES OF AROUND 7MB PER 6 HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. BY
12Z...THE PRESSURE RISE CENTER WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW...SO MAX
WINDS AFTER 12Z WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LAKE.
SOLID GALES WILL BE ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN LAKE
THROUGH MOST OF TUE. COULD SEE GUSTS OF 40-45MPH ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORES...MAINLY KEWEENAW AND E AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE W
IN THE MORNING AND OVER THE E TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
TUE...FASTEST OVER THE W...BUT RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. THE 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH AXIS OF 0C TO -3C WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BETWEEN 21Z TUE AND 06Z
WED...BUT TEMPS INCREASE PRETTY QUICKLY LATE WED NIGHT INTO WED.
THUS...WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WELL INTO WED NIGHT...WITH DECREASED COVERAGE OVER THE W.
FORECAST FOR WED ON WILL BE DOMINATED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS...PUTTING THE AREA IN NW
FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE UNTIL A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG SOME MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT. THE 00Z/12 GFS
BRINGS 850MB TEMPS TO -8C TO -10C BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND 18Z
SAT...WHILE THE 12Z/11 IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH BRINGING THE COLD AIR
IN AND ONLY -5C TO -7C DURING THAT TIME. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
WITH THAT COLDER AIR REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...BUT THE EXTENT
AND PTYPE IS UNCERTAIN. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SNOW
SHOWERS (PROBABLY NOT ACCUMULATING) FRI INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY LATE
FRI INTO EARLY SAT DUE TO COOLER NEAR SFC TEMPS. GFS SOLUTION WOULD
PROBABLY KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW 40F IN MANY PLACES...WITH SOME SPOTS
OVER THE SCENTRAL BEING AROUND 40F. ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SEE HIGHS
IN THE 40S. WILL HAVE TO GET CLOSER TO DETERMINE MORE PRECISE SNOW
POTENTIAL.
SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND BEGIN SUN AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
AS APPROACHING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW...THERE ARE
SOME HINTS UPSTREAM THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. SINCE A BKN MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS NOT YET
ORGANIZED...WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT LOWER CLOUDS
AROUND 2000FT. DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING. IN THE AFTN...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL WRAP INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN A BKN VFR CLOUD DECK
FALLING TO MVFR IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX AND IN THE
EVENING AT KSAW. EXPECT SOME -SHRA TO DEVELOP AS WELL. FINALLY...
EXPECT A FEW HRS OF GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30KT JUST AFTER FROPA
OVERNIGHT AT KCMX. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TODAY. SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSING THIS EVENING WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX SITE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE W LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MON FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SINCE THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER LAKES LATE MON/MON NIGHT...
HAVE TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF THE GALE WARNINGS ISSUED
EARLIER. SINCE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ENHANCE
THE WSW WIND BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TO AT LEAST NEAR GALE
FORCE...ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE TIMING WERE
MADE FOR THAT AREA. SINCE THE PROGRESSION TO THE E OF THE SHARPER
PRES GRADIENT/STRONGER NW WINDS HAS SLOWED...EXTENDED THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRATION TIMES FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL WEAKER GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HI PRES RIDGE ARRIVES W-E ON TUE. WEAKER
W TO NW WINDS UNDER 25 KTS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU WED. A PAIR OF
LO PRES TROUGHS WILL PASS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT RIGHT NOW THE PRES
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TROUGHS LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO HOLD
WINDS UNDER 25 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ248-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ246-247.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
/7 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
/4 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A GENERAL
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA ON THE NRN FLANK OF
UPR RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE PLAINS. AT
THE LLVLS...PERSISTENT WSW FLOW BTWN HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND
AREA OF LO PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA IS ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND DRY AIRMASS/AREA OF H85 TEMPS AOA 20C OVER MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL
CONUS INTO THE UPR LKS. THE COMBINATION OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND THE UNSEASONABLE H85
WARMTH IS RESULTING IN SOME RECORD/NEAR RECORD TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 70S AND EVEN THE 80S THIS AFTN AWAY FM LK MI MODERATION.
LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A POTENT SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW IS MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...RESULTING IN 12HR H5 HGT FALLS
UP TO 150M AND SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40-50 KTS OVER MONTANA.
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON FCST SURGE OF LLVL MSTR
SHOWN BY SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS INTO THE UPR LKS TNGT AHEAD OF
COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV TO THE W AND THEN POPS/WINDS ON MON
AS POTENT SHRTWV NOW APRCHG THE NRN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPR LKS.
TNGT...THIS EVNG WL BE MOCLR WITH WARM AND DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING.
BUT OVERNGT AS UPR SHRTWV MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND INTO
NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z...ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT IS FCST
TO SWING THRU THE WRN CWA AND REACH THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 12Z.
DESPITE 12HR H5 HGT FALLS FCST UP 150-200M AND A BAND OF DPVA/H85-5
QVECTOR CNVGC...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE FROPA WL BE A DRY ONE
GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MSTR INFLOW. BUT SEVERAL OF THE SHORTER TERM
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM...INDICATE STRENGTHENING LLVL SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WL ADVECT MORE LLVL MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS AND
BRING SOME LO CLDS. CONSIDERING THE WARMTH/DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS AND
STEADY WINDS THAT WOULD RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL/INCRS IN NEAR
SFC RH...FAVOR THE DRIER MODEL SCENARIOS THAT SHOW LOWER NEAR SFC
RH/LESS IN THE WAY OF LO CLDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...W WINDS
COULD GUST AS HI AS 25 TO 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH INCRSG CAA/
INSTABILITY.
MON...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE SHRTWV AS A
SECOND JET STREAK CORE DIGS INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY AND
AMPLIFIES THE ACCOMPANYING UPR TROFFING. THIS JET CORE ALSO HAS
RESULTED IN A SHARPER TRAILING SECOND SFC COLD FNT IN MN...WITH THE
RESULT A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER SFC WINDS OVER UPR MI UNTIL
THAT SECOND FNT/TROF PASSES LATE ON MON OR EVEN MON EVNG. SINCE THE
LLVL WINDS WL BE WEAKER AND MORE BACKED TO THE SW AND H85 TEMPS DO
NOT FALL AS QUICKLY WITH A HINT OF AN H85 THERMAL RDG AHEAD OF THE
SECOND FNT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY...WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LESS
EXPOSED KEWEENAW WL BE WEAKER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTN. FOR THIS REASON...DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVY FOR
THAT AREA UNTIL 00Z TUE. DRY SLOTTING FOLLOWING THE MRNG COLD FROPA
WL GRDLY GIVE WAY TO MORE CLDS AS AREA OF HIER RH WITHIN DEEP CYC
FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF CLOSED LO TRACKING THRU ONTARIO OVERSPREADS
THE AREA. HI CHC/LIKELY POPS WL RETURN OVER THE W DURING THE AFTN
WITH THE CORE OF THE DEEPER MSTR IN ADVANCE OF THE TRAILING SECOND
COLD FNT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE MUCH LOWER THAN TDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKWASH MSTR/CLDS WL ARRIVE EARLIER FOLLOWING
THE DRY SLOTTING...MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S WL STILL BE ABV NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
...STRONGEST WINDS DELAYED BUT STILL WINDY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVING ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS
PROGRESSIVE ATTM...BUT SYSTEM SLOWS CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS STRONGER JET STREAK AT H25 DIGS FM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAJORITY OF MODELS
HAVE LATCHED ON TO THIS MUCH SLOWER TREND WHICH DELAYS STRONGEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RESULTING ONSET OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
NEAR LK SUPERIOR UNTIL MONDAY EVENING AT THE EARLIEST. NO REAL
CHANGE TO EXPECTED STRENGTH OF WINDS...JUST THE TIMING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 3-8C /LOWEST WEST/ AT 21Z ON
MONDAY DOWN TO -2C TO 3C /LOWEST EAST/ AT 21Z ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
WINDS OF 35-45 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN GALES OVER LK
SUPERIOR AND WINDS NEARING ADVISORY LEVEL AT SHORELINE AREAS OF
KEWEENAW AND EVENTUALLY OVER ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES. STRONGEST
WINDS ON KEWEENAW WOULD BE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE EAST CWA WOULD NOT SEE STRONGER WINDS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT LASTING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
COORD WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER TO DELAY START OF WIND ADVISORY
ON KEWEENAW 00Z TUE THROUGH 12Z TUE.
GIVEN SLOWER TREND WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LINGERED HIGHER POPS
LONGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS STILL FEATURED OVER EAST
CWA ALONG TRACK OF SMALLER SHORTWAVE CROSSING LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO
JUST AHEAD OF SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE
IN THE EVENING. HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST INTERIOR SHOULD ALSO SEE THE
MOST SHOWERS AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS WITH NNW WINDS PROVIDING
UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THERE IS SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY AS
DELTA T/S ARE OVER 8C. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMES MUCH
SHALLOWER BY 12Z SO IT WILL TURN INTO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
SETUP. H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C OR AS LOW AS -2C WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN LEFTOVER CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH
IN WAY OF RAIN. MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE FINISHED UP BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. THERMAL TROUGH STILL IN THE AREA AND
WINDS COMING OFF LK SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY IN
THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE LOW-MID 50S SCNTRL.
REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMINATED BY SERIES OF TROUGHS DROPPING ACROSS
UPPER GREAT LAKES WED INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS TROUGH ALOFT PERSISTS
DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. LEAD SHORTWAVE AND
SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST FORCING AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN. SOUNDINGS
SHOWED FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE
SHOWERY. TEMPS MAY BOUNCE BACK SOME COMPARED TO THE TUE CHILL...BUT
READINGS IN THE AFTN COULD FALL A FEW DEGREES NEAR LK SUPERIOR ONCE
WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE. SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER THROUGH THU IN
STEADY NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THU PM INTO
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES. COLD AIR MORE ROBUST IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. 12Z
GFS IS BACK TO SHOWING ARRIVAL ON FRIDAY WHILE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. KEPT MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT
INLAND FROM GREAT LAKES WHEN THERE IS AT LEAST SOME AGREEMENT THAT
IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT. IF COLDER GFS WOULD VERIFY
FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...APPEARS THAT SUB H85 LAYER IS STILL TOO
WARM ENOUGH WITH WBZERO ABOVE 1KFT TO SUPPORT ADDING ANY RAIN/SNOW
MIX ATTM. TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50
DEGREES IN THE AFTN ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. LOW-MID 40S WILL BE COMMON
NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
TROUGHING ALOFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST BY NEXT SUNDAY TO END PRECIP
CHANCES AND RESULT IN SLIGHT WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
AS APPROACHING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW...THERE ARE
SOME HINTS UPSTREAM THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. SINCE A BKN MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS NOT YET
ORGANIZED...WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT LOWER CLOUDS
AROUND 2000FT. DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING. IN THE AFTN...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL WRAP INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN A BKN VFR CLOUD DECK
FALLING TO MVFR IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX AND IN THE
EVENING AT KSAW. EXPECT SOME -SHRA TO DEVELOP AS WELL. FINALLY...
EXPECT A FEW HRS OF GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30KT JUST AFTER FROPA
OVERNIGHT AT KCMX. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TODAY. SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSING THIS EVENING WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX SITE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE W LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MON FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SINCE THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER LAKES LATE MON/MON NIGHT...
HAVE TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF THE GALE WARNINGS ISSUED
EARLIER. SINCE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ENHANCE
THE WSW WIND BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TO AT LEAST NEAR GALE
FORCE...ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE TIMING WERE
MADE FOR THAT AREA. SINCE THE PROGRESSION TO THE E OF THE SHARPER
PRES GRADIENT/STRONGER NW WINDS HAS SLOWED...EXTENDED THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRATION TIMES FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL WEAKER GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HI PRES RIDGE ARRIVES W-E ON TUE. WEAKER
W TO NW WINDS UNDER 25 KTS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU WED. A PAIR OF
LO PRES TROUGHS WILL PASS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT RIGHT NOW THE PRES
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TROUGHS LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO HOLD
WINDS UNDER 25 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ248-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ246-247.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
/7 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT
/4 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
731 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
..NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT....CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS NC FROM THE WEST...SO
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH
WITH THE FRONT. THE RAP SUGGESTS A 00Z TO 06Z FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
IT QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE SHALLOW AND COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL BE DELAYED BY THE MOUNTAINS. PREFER OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...REINFORCED BY A SHORTWAVE AND JET DIVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT....WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. A MUCH
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION...YIELD
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BASED ON THICKNESSES
AROUND 1365M. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST TOWARD THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT....WITH THE BEST DECOUPLING POTENTIAL OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...WHERE LOWS COULD APPROACH 40 IN RURAL/COOL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM TUESDAY..
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN (WESTERN NOAM RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH) THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION TO A LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE ZONAL
ONE THROUGH EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS WILL CONSEQUENTLY BACK TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE MERELY IN THE FORM OF
INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS BY TUE-WED.
THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD BE A DRY ONE OWING TO THE PREVALENCE OF A
PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS --THE FIRST OF PACIFIC/MILD ORIGIN THU-FRI AND
THE SECOND OF POLAR ORIGIN SAT-ONWARD-- THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL BE
USHERED IN BY A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT SCHEDULED FOR FRI-EARLY
FRI NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE THE LATTER/POLAR ONE THAT WILL PROVIDE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON...AND A POSSIBLE
LIGHT FREEZE...OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...NEAR-OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND
PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY MON MORNING...EVEN THE
WARMEST ONES FROM RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL CYCLES...WOULD SUPPORT
LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THE COLDER SOLUTIONS
WOULD SUPPORT UPPER 20S.
ANOTHER QUESTION THAT REMAINS WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE POLAR HIGH
WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...AND CONSEQUENTLY
WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL ARRIVE IN TIME TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
CALM/OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1320 METERS WOULD SUPPORT A PRECEDING
MORNING OF AOB FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN (THE TYPICALLY-COOLER AREAS
OF) THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL NO DOUBT TURN CHILLY
(LIKELY THE COLDEST MORNING(S) SINCE APRIL 5TH)...WITH A HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE OF POTENTIALLY-DAMAGING COLD TO WARRANT A BRIEF MENTION
IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT FRI...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S...FOLLOWED BY CRISP HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S SAT-TUE (COOLEST SUN-
MON).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD... AS A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY... RESULTING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS... WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
SKIES.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...77/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
646 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL OPEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. REINFORCING PUSHES OF
COOL AND DRY AIR WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY...WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...THIS UPDATE MAINLY CONCERNED WITH UPDATING
THE MORNING POPS BASED ON LATEST KLTX 88D TRENDS. THE LIGHT RAIN
HAS FINALLY MOVED ONSHORE. HAVING MY DOUBTS THAT ANY PCPN OCCURS
OR REACHES THE ILM SC COASTAL ZONES. BUT...AM BANKING ON THE
UPPER LOW ITSELF MOVING OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTN TO PROVIDE THE
DYNAMICS TO ATLEAST WARRANT A LOW POP.
PREVIOUS..............................................
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...LATEST RAP MODEL RUN INDICATES THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS SHOWN JUST OFFSHORE AND EAST OF
CAPE FEAR. FORCING FROM WELL UPSTREAM TODAY WILL FORCE THIS UPPER
LOW TO OPEN UP AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA TODAY...AND
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL ILM NC
AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN. BY MIDDAY
AND THRU THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT
TRACKS NE...STRADDLING THE COASTLINE AS IT MOVES. THE SMALL COLD
POOL AND WEAK FORCING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL BE ENOUGH
TO CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
DURING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WILL AID IN SCOURING
AND/OR THE DISSIPATION OF THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
FA. VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ALSO ILLUSTRATE THIS. IF
SKIES GO COMPLETELY CLEAR...LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY DEVELOP. WITH
A LOW LEVEL 25 TO 30 KT JET PROGGED DURING THE MID TO LATE PRE-DAWN
TUE HOURS...WILL LEAN TOWARD A BETTER THREAT FOR THE LOW STRATUS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
MODEL BLEND MOS GUIDANCE USED FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THRU TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A POTENT UPPER
VORT DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG PVA AND AN INCREASE IN COLUMN
MOISTURE...BUT ONLY TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...AND WHILE SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY ISOLATED
IN NATURE...TO SCATTERED AT WORST. WPC ACTUALLY KEEPS THE FROPA DRY
LOCALLY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED SCHC POP WITH VERY LOW QPF
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...AND THE MID-LEVEL FORCING MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
FORTUNATELY...THIS SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT TO THE ONGOING FLOODING.
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR
HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOILS REMAINING QUITE SATURATED
THIS COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED DOWNED TREES ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF
THESE HIGHER GUSTS MATERIALIZE...AND WILL ADD A MENTION OF THIS TO
THE HWO.
BEHIND THIS FRONT DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AS
A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON WAA...AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 80 TUESDAY AFTN.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER EVEN WITH FULL
SUNSHINE. MINS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 AT THE COAST TO
THE MID 50S INLAND...AND THEN BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AREA-WIDE WED
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A RARE QUIET WEATHER PERIOD...FOR THIS
OCTOBER ANYWAY...WILL FILL THE LONG TERM AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING
DOMINATES ACROSS THE EAST AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS
MIDWEST. INITIALLY...TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AND WITH VERY LOW PWATS FORECAST...SUNSHINE WILL BE
ABUNDANT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT...THIS ONE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG VORT
LOBE PASSES TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE DRY...SIGNALS
CONTINUE TO POINT TO STRONG CAA BEHIND IT...AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPS...POSSIBLY THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON...ARE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WKND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...UPPER LOW OFFSHORE IS ROTATING LIGHT SHOWERS ONSHORE
JUST SOUTH OF ILM. ILM COULD SEE SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
MATERIALIZE...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS PREDOMINATELY VFR. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FA WILL CONTINUE
THRU MIDDAY AS A SFC LOW JUST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR THIS
MORNING...GETS JUMP-STARTED...AND ACCELERATES TO THE NE THIS AFTN
AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NW TO W IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC
LOW...AND TO THE SW TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 10-15 KT THRU THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KT POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT COMPLEMENTS OF A 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT
A FEW 5 FOOTERS OFF CAPE FEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WIND DRIVEN
WAVES WITH PERIODS OF 4 TO 6 SECONDS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT
SEAS. NO APPRECIABLE LONG PERIOD GROUND SWELL TO SPEAK OF. PATCHY
TO AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS THRU TODAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING TUESDAY WILL CROSS
THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A PINCHED
GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SW WINDS TO 20-25 KTS AND SEAS TO 3-5
FT...WITH ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS TUESDAY
NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN BY
SLOWLY FALLING WIND SPEEDS TO 10- 15 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS DROPPING
TO 2-3 FT WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK BRIEFLY TO THE WEST
DURING WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR DROPS ACROSS
THE WATERS LATE...BRINGING A RETURN TO NW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT...BUT 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE MID- WEST...WITH ITS PERIPHERY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT REMAINS LIGHT...SO
NORTH WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BACKING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE
FRIDAY...AND THIS FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF STRONGER NORTH WINDS
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS RISING TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND NORTHERLY WIND
CHOP COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...LOWER CAPE FEAR PROGGED GAGE READINGS TO
REACH 6.5 MLLW AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH OCCURS AROUND
1002 AM THIS MORNING. THIS FORECAST READING IS 1 FOOT ABOVE THE
THRESHOLD...5.5 FT MLLW...FOR WHEN FLOODING OCCURS. EXPECT
FLOODING TO OCCUR IN A 2 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW FROM 900 AM TO NOON.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...JDW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NWS WILMINGTON NC
622 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL OPEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. REINFORCING PUSHES OF
COOL AND DRY AIR WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY...WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...LATEST RAP MODEL RUN INDICATES THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS SHOWN JUST OFFSHORE AND EAST OF
CAPE FEAR. FORCING FROM WELL UPSTREAM TODAY WILL FORCE THIS UPPER
LOW TO OPEN UP AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA TODAY...AND
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL ILM NC
AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN. BY MIDDAY
AND THRU THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT
TRACKS NE...STRADDLING THE COASTLINE AS IT MOVES. THE SMALL COLD
POOL AND WEAK FORCING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL BE ENOUGH
TO CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
DURING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WILL AID IN SCOURING
AND/OR THE DISSIPATION OF THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
FA. VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ALSO ILLUSTRATE THIS. IF
SKIES GO COMPLETELY CLEAR...LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY DEVELOP. WITH
A LOW LEVEL 25 TO 30 KT JET PROGGED DURING THE MID TO LATE PRE-DAWN
TUE HOURS...WILL LEAN TOWARD A BETTER THREAT FOR THE LOW STRATUS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
MODEL BLEND MOS GUIDANCE USED FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THRU TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A POTENT UPPER
VORT DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG PVA AND AN INCREASE IN COLUMN
MOISTURE...BUT ONLY TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...AND WHILE SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY ISOLATED
IN NATURE...TO SCATTERED AT WORST. WPC ACTUALLY KEEPS THE FROPA DRY
LOCALLY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED SCHC POP WITH VERY LOW QPF
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...AND THE MID-LEVEL FORCING MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
FORTUNATELY...THIS SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT TO THE ONGOING FLOODING.
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR
HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOILS REMAINING QUITE SATURATED
THIS COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED DOWNED TREES ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF
THESE HIGHER GUSTS MATERIALIZE...AND WILL ADD A MENTION OF THIS TO
THE HWO.
BEHIND THIS FRONT DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AS
A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON WAA...AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 80 TUESDAY AFTN.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER EVEN WITH FULL
SUNSHINE. MINS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 AT THE COAST TO
THE MID 50S INLAND...AND THEN BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AREA-WIDE WED
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A RARE QUIET WEATHER PERIOD...FOR THIS
OCTOBER ANYWAY...WILL FILL THE LONG TERM AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING
DOMINATES ACROSS THE EAST AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS
MIDWEST. INITIALLY...TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AND WITH VERY LOW PWATS FORECAST...SUNSHINE WILL BE
ABUNDANT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT...THIS ONE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG VORT
LOBE PASSES TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE DRY...SIGNALS
CONTINUE TO POINT TO STRONG CAA BEHIND IT...AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPS...POSSIBLY THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON...ARE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WKND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...UPPER LOW OFFSHORE IS ROTATING LIGHT SHOWERS ONSHORE
JUST SOUTH OF ILM. ILM COULD SEE SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT
SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
MATERIALIZE...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS PREDOMINATELY VFR. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FA WILL CONTINUE
THRU MIDDAY AS A SFC LOW JUST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR THIS
MORNING...GETS JUMP-STARTED...AND ACCELERATES TO THE NE THIS AFTN
AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NW TO W IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC
LOW...AND TO THE SW TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND
SPEEDS MAINLY 10-15 KT THRU THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT COMPLEMENTS OF A 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT A
FEW 5 FOOTERS OFF CAPE FEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
WITH PERIODS OF 4 TO 6 SECONDS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS.
NO APPRECIABLE LONG PERIOD GROUND SWELL TO SPEAK OF. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS THRU TODAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING TUESDAY WILL CROSS
THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A PINCHED
GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SW WINDS TO 20-25 KTS AND SEAS TO 3-5
FT...WITH ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS TUESDAY
NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN BY
SLOWLY FALLING WIND SPEEDS TO 10- 15 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS DROPPING
TO 2-3 FT WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK BRIEFLY TO THE WEST
DURING WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR DROPS ACROSS
THE WATERS LATE...BRINGING A RETURN TO NW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT...BUT 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE MID- WEST...WITH ITS PERIPHERY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT REMAINS LIGHT...SO
NORTH WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BACKING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE
FRIDAY...AND THIS FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF STRONGER NORTH WINDS
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS RISING TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND NORTHERLY WIND
CHOP COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
MARINE...DCH/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NWS WILMINGTON NC
348 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL OPEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. REINFORCING PUSHES OF
COOL AND DRY AIR WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY...WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...LATEST RAP MODEL RUN INDICATES THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS SHOWN JUST OFFSHORE AND EAST OF
CAPE FEAR. FORCING FROM WELL UPSTREAM TODAY WILL FORCE THIS UPPER
LOW TO OPEN UP AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA TODAY...AND
TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL ILM NC
AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN. BY MIDDAY
AND THRU THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT
TRACKS NE...STRADDLING THE COASTLINE AS IT MOVES. THE SMALL COLD
POOL AND WEAK FORCING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL BE ENOUGH
TO CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
DURING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WILL AID IN SCOURING
AND/OR THE DISSIPATION OF THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
FA. VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ALSO ILLUSTRATE THIS. IF
SKIES GO COMPLETELY CLEAR...LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY DEVELOP. WITH
A LOW LEVEL 25 TO 30 KT JET PROGGED DURING THE MID TO LATE PRE-DAWN
TUE HOURS...WILL LEAN TOWARD A BETTER THREAT FOR THE LOW STRATUS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
MODEL BLEND MOS GUIDANCE USED FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THRU TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A POTENT UPPER
VORT DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG PVA AND AN INCREASE IN COLUMN
MOISTURE...BUT ONLY TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...AND WHILE SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY ISOLATED
IN NATURE...TO SCATTERED AT WORST. WPC ACTUALLY KEEPS THE FROPA DRY
LOCALLY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED SCHC POP WITH VERY LOW QPF
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...AND THE MID-LEVEL FORCING MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
FORTUNATELY...THIS SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT TO THE ONGOING FLOODING.
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR
HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOILS REMAINING QUITE SATURATED
THIS COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED DOWNED TREES ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF
THESE HIGHER GUSTS MATERIALIZE...AND WILL ADD A MENTION OF THIS TO
THE HWO.
BEHIND THIS FRONT DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AS
A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
BRING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS
ON WAA...AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 80 TUESDAY AFTN.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER EVEN WITH FULL
SUNSHINE. MINS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 AT THE COAST TO
THE MID 50S INLAND...AND THEN BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AREA-WIDE WED
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A RARE QUIET WEATHER PERIOD...FOR THIS
OCTOBER ANYWAY...WILL FILL THE LONG TERM AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING
DOMINATES ACROSS THE EAST AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS
MIDWEST. INITIALLY...TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AND WITH VERY LOW PWATS FORECAST...SUNSHINE WILL BE
ABUNDANT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT...THIS ONE EXPECTED TO BE
DRY...WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG VORT
LOBE PASSES TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE DRY...SIGNALS
CONTINUE TO POINT TO STRONG CAA BEHIND IT...AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPS...POSSIBLY THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON...ARE FORECAST FOR THE
UPCOMING WKND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SYNOPTICALLY AND AT THE MOMENT...A SFC STALLED
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS ALONG
WITH AN UPPER LOW NEARLY OVERHEAD. WITH TIME...THE UPPER LOW WILL
OPEN UP AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD AND OFF TO THE NE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SATELLITE IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOWER CLOUDS OFF THE COAST
SLOWLY EDGING BACK TOWARDS THE WEST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. LATEST RADAR MOSAICS ILLUSTRATE THE STRATIFORM RAINS
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS ALSO BACKING TO THE WEST. AT THIS
POINT...WILL INDICATE POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS FROM LOWERED
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM THE LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE CAROLINA
COASTS. THE INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN PCPN-FREE...AND WILL
ONLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW AND/OR MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. LOOK FOR
IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS AND VSBY ACROSS THE FA BY MIDDAY AND
CONTINUING THRU TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES
NORTHEAST...TAKING THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW JUST OFFSHORE AWAY WITH
IT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FA WILL CONTINUE
THRU MIDDAY AS A SFC LOW JUST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR THIS
MORNING...GETS JUMP-STARTED...AND ACCELERATES TO THE NE THIS AFTN
AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NW TO W IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC
LOW...AND TO THE SW TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND
SPEEDS MAINLY 10-15 KT THRU THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT COMPLEMENTS OF A 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT A
FEW 5 FOOTERS OFF CAPE FEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
WITH PERIODS OF 4 TO 6 SECONDS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS.
NO APPRECIABLE LONG PERIOD GROUND SWELL TO SPEAK OF. PATCHY TO
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS THRU TODAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING TUESDAY WILL CROSS
THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A PINCHED
GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SW WINDS TO 20-25 KTS AND SEAS TO 3-5
FT...WITH ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS TUESDAY
NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN BY
SLOWLY FALLING WIND SPEEDS TO 10- 15 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS DROPPING
TO 2-3 FT WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK BRIEFLY TO THE WEST
DURING WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR DROPS ACROSS
THE WATERS LATE...BRINGING A RETURN TO NW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT...BUT 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE THANKS TO THE
OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE MID- WEST...WITH ITS PERIPHERY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT REMAINS LIGHT...SO
NORTH WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BACKING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE
FRIDAY...AND THIS FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF STRONGER NORTH WINDS
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS RISING TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL
BE 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND NORTHERLY WIND
CHOP COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
317 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE VALUES. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON DRAGGING
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT. A VERY THIN LINE OF SHOWERS CAN BE
FOUND ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE
ILLINOIS/ INDIANA BORDER. NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW
SHOWING A BIT OF CAPE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS ALSO A LITTLE BIT MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA. FORECAST PWATS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER
NEAR 1.45". SURFACE CONVERGENCE STILL LOOKS RATHER WEAK AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE ONLY WEST WINDS
EXIST BEHIND IT. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND VORTICITY
ADVECTION HAVE BUMPED UP POPS (ESP. ACROSS EASTERN ZONES). THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST CLEARING THE CWA
(AROUND 6 OR 8 AM) WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL STILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THOUGH WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW
LOCATED JUST EAST OF MICHIGAN.
RH FIELDS IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRATOCUMULUS AND
CU MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW AND
ANOTHER WEDGE OF PVA MOVING OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO
BELOW 0.5" SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. THANKS TO THE
FORECASTED CLOUDS TUESDAY HAVE KEPT TREND OF LOWER MAX TEMPS.
WINDS COULD AGAIN BE BREEZY TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST TUESDAY EVENING
PUTTING ILN ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 850 TEMPS
REMAIN NEAR 4 DEGREES C THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TOWARDS THE NORTH AND MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAKING
FOR A COOL THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS IT DOES SOME WAA WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
PUSH UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS. IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAA...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ONLY IN THE 50S. FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO OVERHEAD BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE VICINITY OF TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY WHEN THE FRONT
ARRIVES PAST PEAK HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY
FORECASTS INDICATE VFR WILL PERSIST EXCEPT AT LUK WHERE BR MAY
FORM TEMPORARILY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH DIRECTIONS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
622 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SEVERAL DAY STRING
OF PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL USHER
IN A PERIOD OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WHICH
WILL LAST INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CAN/T IMAGINE A MUCH NICER EARLY FALL AFTERNOON TO KICK OFF THE
WORK WEEK AND CELEBRATE COLUMBUS DAY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...YOU MAY STRAIN YOUR EYES ATTEMPTING TO
LOOK FOR EVEN A STRAND OF CIRRUS ON THE WESTERN HORIZON...BUT
WILL BE ABLE TO SEE FOR AS FAR AS THE TERRAIN AND EARTH/S
CURVATURE WILL ALLOW YOU TO...IN THIS DRY AIRMASS WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR OR BELOW ONE- HALF OF AN INCH.
TEMPS ARE NEAR THEIR FCST MAXES IN THE 70-75F RANGE...AND EVEN
KIPT THAT WAS PLAGUED BY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z...JUMPED
3-4C/HR SINCE THEN AFTER THE STRONG LLVL INVERSION BROKE.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AOA 2200 FT MSL WILL STAY AROUND 67-68F.
FOR TONIGHT...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ON THE TIMING OF
CLOUD COVER AND FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS...BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE 17Z HRRR AND 15Z SREF. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES BETWEEN 8-10Z...THEN ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
QPF LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE MILDEST WE/LL SEE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CFROPA TUESDAY MORNING WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR ON BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS...THAT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 20-25 KTS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
SECONDARY CFRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NW MTNS PRIOR TO DUSK.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN MONDAY/S...AND
WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NW MTNS TO THE L70S IN THE
SE /WHERE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STILL HANG AROUND 10C DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
THE EARLY CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND THEN A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN
A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF PTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE 850 MB TEMPS STEADILY DROP AND A LARGE
AREA OF LOWERING STRATO CU MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MID TO
LATE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LATEST 12Z ENSEMBLES ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE MID TO LONG TERM
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER...WITH COLDER/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT LATE
NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE A BUILDING RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD
PROVIDE AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER THAT RIDGE WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND...FACILITATING IN BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AS THE
ZONAL COMPONENT TO THE PACIFIC FLOW MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
THE NRN U.S. THIS RIDGE SHOULD ALSO CREATE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD FROM NW CANADA/YUKON TERRITORY TO
EXPAND COLDER AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SEASONABLY COLD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE MONTH. THOUGH FLOW
IS FAIRLY DRY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS
LOWS DIP TO THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES NOTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA AT 22Z AND WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
DETERIORATING CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST SSW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...COMBINED WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVR THE NW MTNS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE IFR CIGS AT
KBFD LATE TONIGHT. OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS...ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA...WHERE MCLEAR
SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT...EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ARND DAWN IN VICINITY OF KMDT/KLNS. BASED
ON OBS FROM PREV FEW MORNINGS...AS WELL AS LATEST MOS...EXPECT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CONDS AT KMDT/KLNS ARND 12Z.
LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS COLD FRONT THRU KBFD ARND 12Z AND KMDT/KLNS
ARND 18Z TUE. IN WAKE OF FRONT...IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED AS
WESTERLY FLOW DRAWS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MDL SOUNDINGS AND
SREF OUTPUT SUPPORT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS
BTWN 18Z-00Z. MOISTURE FLOWING OFF LK ERIE COULD POTENTIALLY
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KBFD BTWN 00Z-06Z WED.
OUTLOOK...
WED...MVFR CIGS/ISOLD -SHRA PSBL N/W.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI...PSBL COLD FROPA WITH SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
330 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SEVERAL DAY STRING
OF PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL USHER
IN A PERIOD OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WHICH
WILL LAST INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CAN/T IMAGINE A MUCH NICER EARLY FALL AFTERNOON TO KICK OFF THE
WORK WEEK AND CELEBRATE COLUMBUS DAY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...YOU MAY STRAIN YOUR EYES ATTEMPTING TO
LOOK FOR EVEN A STRAND OF CIRRUS ON THE WESTERN HORIZON...BUT
WILL BE ABLE TO SEE FOR AS FAR AS THE TERRAIN AND EARTH/S
CURVATURE WILL ALLOW YOU TO...IN THIS DRY AIRMASS WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR OR BELOW ONE- HALF OF AN INCH.
TEMPS ARE NEAR THEIR FCST MAXES IN THE 70-75F RANGE...AND EVEN
KIPT THAT WAS PLAGUED BY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z...JUMPED
3-4C/HR SINCE THEN AFTER THE STRONG LLVL INVERSION BROKE.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AOA 2200 FT MSL WILL STAY AROUND 67-68F.
FOR TONIGHT...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ON THE TIMING OF
CLOUD COVER AND FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS...BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE 17Z HRRR AND 15Z SREF. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES BETWEEN 8-10Z...THEN ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
QPF LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE MILDEST WE/LL SEE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CFROPA TUESDAY MORNING WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR ON BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS...THAT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 20-25 KTS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
SECONDARY CFRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NW MTNS PRIOR TO DUSK.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN MONDAY/S...AND
WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NW MTNS TO THE L70S IN THE
SE /WHERE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STILL HANG AROUND 10C DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
THE EARLY CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND THEN A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN
A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF PTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE 850 MB TEMPS STEADILY DROP AND A LARGE
AREA OF LOWERING STRATO CU MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MID TO
LATE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LATEST 12Z ENSEMBLES ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE MID TO LONG TERM
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER...WITH COLDER/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT LATE
NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE A BUILDING RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD
PROVIDE AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER THAT RIDGE WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY
WEEKEND...FACILITATING IN BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AS THE
ZONAL COMPONENT TO THE PACIFIC FLOW MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG
THE NRN U.S. THIS RIDGE SHOULD ALSO CREATE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD FROM NW CANADA/YUKON TERRITORY TO
EXPAND COLDER AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SEASONABLY COLD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE MONTH. THOUGH FLOW
IS FAIRLY DRY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS
LOWS DIP TO THE MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS WILL FEATURE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. SOUTH-SSW WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY WHILE WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 8-10 KTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE. SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS.
TUE...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS CENTRAL/EAST IN THE MORNING. MVFR TO
LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION...BREAKING FOR A SEVERAL HOUR
PERIOD OF VFR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO
IFR /WESTERN MTNS/ AND MVFR TO LOW END VFR STARTOCU ELSEWHERE
TUESDAY EVENING.
WED...MVFR CIGS/ISOLD -SHRA PSBL N/W.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI...PSBL COLD FROPA WITH SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
324 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SEVERAL DAY STRING
OF PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL USHER
IN A PERIOD OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WHICH
WILL LAST INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CAN/T IMAGINE A MUCH NICER EARLY FALL AFTERNOON TO KICK OFF THE
WORK WEEK AND CELEBRATE COLUMBUS DAY.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...YOU MAY STRAIN YOUR EYES ATTEMPTING TO
LOOK FOR EVEN A STRAND OF CIRRUS ON THE WESTERN HORIZON...BUT
WILL BE ABLE TO SEE FOR AS FAR AS THE TERRAIN AND EARTH/S
CURVATURE WILL ALLOW YOU TO...IN THIS DRY AIRMASS WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES NEAR OR BELOW ONE- HALF OF AN INCH.
TEMPS ARE NEAR THEIR FCST MAXES IN THE 70-75F RANGE...AND EVEN
KIPT THAT WAS PLAGUED BY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z...JUMPED
3-4C/HR SINCE THEN AFTER THE STRONG LLVL INVERSION BROKE.
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AOA 2200 FT MSL WILL STAY AROUND 67-68F.
FOR TONIGHT...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ON THE TIMING OF
CLOUD COVER AND FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS...BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE 17Z HRRR AND 15Z SREF. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES BETWEEN 8-10Z...THEN ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
QPF LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE MILDEST WE/LL SEE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CFROPA TUESDAY MORNING WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR ON BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS...THAT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 20-25 KTS DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
SECONDARY CFRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NW MTNS PRIOR TO DUSK.
HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN MONDAY/S...AND
WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NW MTNS TO THE L70S IN THE
SE /WHERE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STILL HANG AROUND 10C DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
THE EARLY CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND THEN A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN
A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF PTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE 850 MB TEMPS STEADILY DROP AND A LARGE
AREA OF LOWERING STRATO CU MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND
BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES
WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MID TO LATE WEEK...ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE TREND OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING COLDER/BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALL LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS
BRINGING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AS THE ZONAL COMPONENT TO THE
PACIFIC FLOW MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE NRN U.S. AND IS
ESSENTIALLY REDUCED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS RIDGE SHOULD CREATE A MORE/BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD FROM NW CANADA/YUKON
TERRITORY TO EXPAND COLDER AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SEASONABLY COLD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS WILL FEATURE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. SOUTH-SSW WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY WHILE WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 8-10 KTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE. SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN MTNS.
TUE...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS CENTRAL/EAST IN THE MORNING. MVFR TO
LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION...BREAKING FOR A SEVERAL HOUR
PERIOD OF VFR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO
IFR /WESTERN MTNS/ AND MVFR TO LOW END VFR STARTOCU ELSEWHERE
TUESDAY EVENING.
WED...MVFR CIGS/ISOLD -SHRA PSBL N/W.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI...PSBL COLD FROPA WITH SCT SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1011 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
.MORNING UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE MORNING FOG WORDING. ALSO SLOWED
THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS ALL THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIP ENTERING OUR NW
COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE 00Z HOUR. KEPT THE FEW HOURS OF LIKELY POPS
TONIGHT AS THE COVERAGE OF THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMP/DEWPOINTS/SKY. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE RETURN IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE WITH DEWPOINTS
UP TO AROUND 50 AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. EASTERN AREAS REMAIN
CLEAR AND THUS SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED...ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE MORE DENSE FOG IS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
BIG CHANGES WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM KANSAS CITY TO WEST OF GREEN BAY RACES SOUTHEAST
AND CROSSES THE MID STATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. RAPID BUT
WEAK WAA AND GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AREAWIDE AND DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS HRRR SHOWS...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AS FRONTAL FORCING ARRIVES.
ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING BEFORE
QUICKLY EXITING THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS MUCH
HIGHER WITH PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS AND WILL
SHOW HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...MAINLY IN THE 00Z-03Z TIMEFRAME.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KTS BUT VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY LESS THAN 500 J/KG DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS...SO
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS.
AFTER TONIGHT...COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID OCTOBER FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING EVEN COOLER BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE CWA EVEN LOOKS LIKELY TO SEE LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR. MVFR FOG MAY CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT KCSV THIS MORNING
UNTIL AROUND 14Z OR SO. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...AND IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS IMPACT TERMINALS...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VIS
MAY BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING FOR KCKV AND KBNA...AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR KCSV.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
627 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE RETURN IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE WITH DEWPOINTS
UP TO AROUND 50 AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. EASTERN AREAS REMAIN
CLEAR AND THUS SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED...ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE MORE DENSE FOG IS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
BIG CHANGES WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM KANSAS CITY TO WEST OF GREEN BAY RACES SOUTHEAST
AND CROSSES THE MID STATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. RAPID BUT
WEAK WAA AND GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AREAWIDE AND DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS HRRR SHOWS...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AS FRONTAL FORCING ARRIVES.
ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING BEFORE
QUICKLY EXITING THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS MUCH
HIGHER WITH PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS AND WILL
SHOW HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...MAINLY IN THE 00Z-03Z TIMEFRAME.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KTS BUT VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY LESS THAN 500 J/KG DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS...SO
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS.
AFTER TONIGHT...COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID OCTOBER FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING EVEN COOLER BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE CWA EVEN LOOKS LIKELY TO SEE LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR. MVFR FOG MAY CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT KCSV THIS MORNING
UNTIL AROUND 14Z OR SO. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...AND IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS IMPACT TERMINALS...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VIS
MAY BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING FOR KCKV AND KBNA...AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR KCSV.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
321 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE RETURN IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE WITH DEWPOINTS
UP TO AROUND 50 AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. EASTERN AREAS REMAIN
CLEAR AND THUS SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED...ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE MORE DENSE FOG IS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
BIG CHANGES WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM KANSAS CITY TO WEST OF GREEN BAY RACES SOUTHEAST
AND CROSSES THE MID STATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. RAPID BUT
WEAK WAA AND GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AREAWIDE AND DEWPOINTS
RISING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS HRRR SHOWS...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AS FRONTAL FORCING ARRIVES.
ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING BEFORE
QUICKLY EXITING THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS MUCH
HIGHER WITH PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS AND WILL
SHOW HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...MAINLY IN THE 00Z-03Z TIMEFRAME.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KTS BUT VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY LESS THAN 500 J/KG DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS...SO
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS.
AFTER TONIGHT...COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID OCTOBER FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING EVEN COOLER BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE CWA EVEN LOOKS LIKELY TO SEE LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 83 54 74 46 / 20 60 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 83 51 73 44 / 40 40 0 0
CROSSVILLE 74 53 68 43 / 10 60 0 0
COLUMBIA 82 52 73 43 / 20 60 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 81 54 73 46 / 10 60 0 0
WAVERLY 82 51 73 44 / 40 40 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1035 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN ALOFT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE AIRMASS
IS GENERALLY DRY BETWEEN THE INVERSION AND 600MB...SO NO REAL THREAT
OF ANY PRECIP. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS MAKING DECENT
PROGRESS TO THE EAST OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND COULD MAKE IT INTO
PARTS OF THE ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPING AREAS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME HOLES
IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOP. AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES
EAST...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRIFT
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN
IN THE PROCESS WHILE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL INVADE FROM THE WEST.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE CLEARING TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS DEPART THE LAKE SHORE BY
EARLY OVERNIGHT...WILL HAVE A SLIGHT WEST WIND THAT SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S WEST TO
LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND ADVECT IN WARMER LOW LEVEL
AIR. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING...RAISED HIGH TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS.
A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 1033MB HIGH WILL MOVE FROM
MINNESOTA ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN TO ILLINOIS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE
REGION. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
EXPECT MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CIGS TO CLEAR ACROSS FAR NE WI
OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BORDERLINE
LLWS CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER C/EC WI WEDS EVG...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
240 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/MIXING
DESPITE CLOUDINESS BRINGING 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS TO THE SURFACE.
GENERALLY 25 TO 30 SUSTAINED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...LESS
EAST. WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MN AND NORTHEAST IA. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE STAYED JUST UNDER
CRITERIA...BUT SHOULD STAY WINDY/GUSTY THROUGH AT LEAST MID/LATE
EVENING - PER RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EXTENDING
THE ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING...BUT WITH CRITERIA MOSTLY BEING
MISSED RIGHT NOW...AND PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO SEE IF AN EXTENSION WOULD
BE WARRANTED. IF SO...PROBABLY ONLY TIL 9 PM. GRADIENT SLACKENS
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT BREEZY - BUT NOT AS WINDY - CONDITIONS
INTO TUESDAY.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WERE SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTHWEST WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST...EXITING BY EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH...MOSTLY NORTH OF I-94 CORRIDOR...THOUGH 8-
9 PM OR SO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
CONSENSUS IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS IS A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW A
LOFT....WITH THE VARIOUS RIPPLES IN THE FLOW EITHER NORTH OR
MOISTURE STARVED. ONE EXCEPTION IS A SHORTWAVE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THU. SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL SATURATION AND QG CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE...WITH A SLUG OF LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING LEADING IT IN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT...WITH THE HIGHER THREAT LIKELY
NORTH.
TEMPERATURES LOOK MOSTLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THU...BUT COLDER AIR IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA POST THE THU SYSTEM. NAEFS 850
MB TEMP ANOMALIES HOVER AROUND -1 FOR FRI/SAT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN
THE GFS/EC FROM -4 TO -6 C BY 12Z SAT MORNING. WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...SAT COULD BE A VERY CHILLY MORNING
FOR THE REGION. A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
A LOW LOCATED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WILL PRODUCE A 3 TO 5K
FOOT DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH 13.02Z AND THEN SKIES WILL BECOME MVFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST IOWA
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND ADVISORY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095.
IA...WIND ADVISORY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION.....BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1146 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
THE INHERITED RED FLAG WARNING IS LOOKING GOOD SO FAR WITH A FEW
OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ALREADY SHOWING WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 30 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES QUICKLY FALLING BELOW
15 PERCENT. IT IS BECOMING APPARENT THAT AREAS FARTHER EAST COULD
EXCEED CRITERIA SHORTLY AFTER NOON. SEVERAL RAWS SITES ACROSS THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS INDICATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT IT
WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO GET RH VALUES BELOW CRITERIA. WE MAY
GET CLOSE ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR FROM CHEYENNE TO COLEMAN. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SHOW EXCELLENT MIXING WITH AT LEAST 30 KTS
AVAILABLE...AND WITH HUMIDITIES ALREADY AT 14 PERCENT AT KCYS OUR
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE MET LOCALLY. WE
EXPANDED THE WARNING EAST TO INCLUDE FWZ 302-309-310. ALL OTHER
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE-WEATHER-RELATED...ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ALL SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA FOR HIGHS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE THE KEY
FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LOW TEMPERATURES DROP EACH MORNING.
CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM THOUGH...WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME. MAY NEED A
FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT SINCE
LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 32 TO 35 DEGREES ARE FORECAST WITH LIGHT
WINDS. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WHICH
SUGGESTS FROST FOR THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. FURTHER WEST...EXPECT MILD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING DUE TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. MODELS DO
INDICATE THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER AFTER
MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. ONLY THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN AGREEMENT AT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON
THURS WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING.
AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER ON THURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON THURS NIGHT...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE
FIRST FREEZE FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS MOS
GUIDANCE HAS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THE PATTERN ON
FRI/SAT WILL FEATURE WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH TEMPS MORE NORMAL FOR MID OCT (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S). AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD WY
ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MIDLVL MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME WITH KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE SIERRA MADRE/SNOWY RANGES. NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS MIN RH
VALUES EACH AFTN WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WEAK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH SUNSET TODAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH EXPECTED. THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED...AND
NOW INCLUDES MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FWZ
301 AND THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGES. HUMIDITIES
WILL TREND SLOWLY TREND HIGHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ302>304-306-
308>310.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
409 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID-LVL TROUGH OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NE U.S. AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SFC...A LOW PRES SYSTEM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. COLD ADVECTION IN MOIST CYCLONIC NW
FLOW IS STILL PRODUCING ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR NW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SFC LOW SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY LIFTS QUICKLY EAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
BACKING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ALSO LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
TO END OVERNIGHT NCNTRL AND EAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO SKIRT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
WED. WEAK 700-300 MB Q-VECT CONVERGENCE FROM SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW-
LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ASSOC SFC TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE ERN THIRD OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON PER MODEL
QPF OUTPUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER
ALGER...LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING
SKIES TO RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING OVER THE WRN INTERIOR TO THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S EAST AND NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015
NAM SHOWS A DEEP AND BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z THU WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS SOUTHEAST ON THU AND HELPS TO
DIG THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. ON FRI AS IT HEADS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES.
LAKE EFFECT PCPN WILL BE THE WEATHER PRODUCER THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -8C ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
FRIDAY. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE 10C TO 11C ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...SO
THIS IS ENOUGH LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT PCPN. WILL
ALSO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS AND THIS WAS ALREADY IN THE GOING FORECAST. HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOSTLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH LESS IN THE SOUTH DUE TO NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW OVER THE AREA. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO
THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD AND DEEP 500 MB TROUGH
IN THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 12Z SAT. THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EASTERN U.S. 12Z SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUE. TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AT THE START WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT PCPN WINDS DOWN ON SAT NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR RAIN COME IN FOR MON INTO TUE AS A WARM FRONT SETS UP TO
THE SOUTH AND ALLOWS SOME OVERRUNNING TO OCCUR OVER THE AREA AND
HAVE CHANCE POPS THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR MASS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS CLEARING OUT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. ALTHOUGH A DISTURBANCE WILL
TRACK SE OVER OR JUST N OF THE AREA TODAY...LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THIS FCST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20-25KT
LATE MORNING AND AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED BLO GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW
GRADIENT WEAKENS BETWEEN LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND HIGH PRES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR NW WINDS 20-30 KTS...STRONGEST EAST
HALF TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT (GENERALLY TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS)
WINDS WILL THEN BACK W-SW ON WED AND BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS
STRONGEST WEST AND NCNTRL AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA.
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION TO SEE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW IN CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR GALES WOULD BE ON THU NIGHT-FRI FOR THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPER TROUGH AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID-LVL TROUGH OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NE U.S. AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SFC...A LOW PRES SYSTEM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. COLD ADVECTION IN MOIST CYCLONIC NW
FLOW IS STILL PRODUCING ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR NW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SFC LOW SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY LIFTS QUICKLY EAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
BACKING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ALSO LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
TO END OVERNIGHT NCNTRL AND EAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO SKIRT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
WED. WEAK 700-300 MB Q-VECT CONVERGENCE FROM SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW-
LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ASSOC SFC TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE ERN THIRD OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON PER MODEL
QPF OUTPUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER
ALGER...LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING
SKIES TO RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING OVER THE WRN INTERIOR TO THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S EAST AND NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE TAIL OF TWO HALVES...WITH THE
FIRST HALF EXPERIENCING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION AND THE SECOND HALF WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST...AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE
AND TOWARDS LUCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE TOO
LIMITED FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE COLDEST
AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. A MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN AND THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AMPLIFY THE TROUGH OVER THE
REGION AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT (BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH) AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL
BE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT AROUND -8C. AS THAT COLD AIR ARRIVES...SHOULD SEE LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION PICK UP THROUGH THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POCKETS OF DRIER AIR SLIDING THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT WITH THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FAIRLY STRONG (DELTA-T
VALUES OF 16-20) WILL SHOW CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THAT
TIME FOR AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AND WE CAN FINE
TUNE THE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION PERIODS AS WE GET CLOSER. AS FOR
PRECIP TYPE...EXPECT IT TO START AS RAIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...BUT AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES IN IT WILL
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL) DUE TO THE WETBULB0 HEIGHTS CRASHING BELOW
700FT. WETBULB0 HEIGHTS DO TRY TO HANG ON BETWEEN 700-1300FT OVER
THE EASTERN CWA (AIDED BY THE LAKE MODIFIED AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR)
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THAT AREA FOR FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING TO MAINLY SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FORM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A NICE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO
SURGE TO 10C AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND POSSIBLY A
FEW 60S OVER THE FAR WEST. MODELS HAVE CHANGED UP THE THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STRONG LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN CANADA AND SWEEPING A TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THAT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY OR STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AT
THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015
WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR MASS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HRS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS CLEARING OUT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. ALTHOUGH A DISTURBANCE WILL
TRACK SE OVER OR JUST N OF THE AREA TODAY...LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THIS FCST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20-25KT
LATE MORNING AND AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED BLO GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW
GRADIENT WEAKENS BETWEEN LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND HIGH PRES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR NW WINDS 20-30 KTS...STRONGEST EAST
HALF TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT (GENERALLY TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS)
WINDS WILL THEN BACK W-SW ON WED AND BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS
STRONGEST WEST AND NCNTRL AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA.
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION TO SEE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW IN CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR GALES WOULD BE ON THU NIGHT-FRI FOR THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPER TROUGH AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1018 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015
.UPDATE...
THE TSTORMS WHICH WERE OVER THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED. RADAR IS NOW QUIET ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. HRRR SHOWING VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WHICH AT FIRST LOOK SEEMS STRANGE AS THE MORNING MIAMI
SOUNDING IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR CONVECTION
WITH THE ANTICIPATED LATE DAY ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND
CONVERGING ON THE PREVAILING MEAN WSW WIND FLOW. HOWEVER, WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TELLS A STORY. A SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS SOUTH FL
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND IS NOW SEEN OVER THE BAHAMAS. SOUTH FL IS
NOW IN CONVERGING UPPER LEVEL WINDS AS EVIDENCED IN A LOOP OF
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE IS NOTED IN THE GFS WITH
SINKING AIR LOCALLY. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT AS FAR AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST THOUGH DUE TO
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST. EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AND MINIMAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON, SO ONLY ADDED VCTS FOR THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS...AND NOT BEGINNING UNTIL 20Z. WILL ASSESS THE
MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING TO SEE IF POPS NEED TO BE LOWERED IN THE
PUBLIC FORECAST. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
WOW, IN MY DISCUSSION LAST NIGHT I MENTIONED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS
DO NOT HANDLE WELL AT ALL THE TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN SOUTH FLORIDA
IS IN CURRENTLY WHERE A FRONT STALLS OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN
SLOWLY DRIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. NONE OF THE MODELS LAST NIGHT WERE
SHOWING MUCH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH NO CHANCE
OF THE INVERSION (CAP) BREAKING EITHER UNTIL WEDNESDAY. AS IT TURNED
OUT, MOISTURE RETURNED VIGOROUSLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION, WHILE THE CAP DID NOT COMPLETELY ERODE IT ALLOWED FOR
THE UPDRAFTS TO BREAK THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PWAT JUMPED TO
OVER 2" OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. BY LATE IN THE DAY, A FEW TSTORMS
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY!
ENOUGH OF THE HINDSIGHT, NOW BACK TO REALITY. THE LARGE SCALE MID
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN STATES HAS DEEPENED
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE DEEPNESS IN THE TROUGH IS NO
DOUBT ONE REASON WHY THE MOISTURE FIELD WAS ABLE TO RETURN SO
SWIFTLY. CURRENT GPS MET DATA SHOWS THE DEEPEST LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH BUT THAT THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIRMASS OVER FAR SOUTH FLORIDA IS RIGHT AT NORMAL AND RANGING DOWN TO
AROUND 90% OF NORMAL NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR MID OCTOBER. THROUGH
FRIDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT BUT THE LARGE SCALE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THUS, THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH ITS WAY NORTHWARD WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PWAT VALUES TO OUR SOUTH ARE
IN THE RANGE OF 115- 120% OF NORMAL SO THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FUEL TO
KEEP THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ESPECIALLY IF THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MOVE INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL HANG AROUND INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PWAT VALUES OF OVER 2" AND A DEEPER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. IN TURN, A VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
DEVELOPING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACHES AND PROBABLY INCREASING TO A HIGH RISK. THE AIRMASS WILL
ALSO DRY OUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING PWAT FALLING WELL
BELOW 1.5" DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WOULD STILL EXPECT SOME FAST
MOVING LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH THE LOW
LEVELS REMAINING SOMEWHAT MOIST.
MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE WIND WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY
AND THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST THURSDAY AT SPEEDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS. ON SUNDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES STRENGTHENS.
A NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 72 87 77 / 40 40 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 75 87 76 / 30 30 40 50
MIAMI 88 75 87 76 / 40 30 40 50
NAPLES 88 72 89 74 / 20 10 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
152 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS JUST DEVELOPED
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES AND WILL PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH THIS
PUSH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE
IS PRESENT. MAINTAINED JUST VCTS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND TSRA PLACEMENT. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015/
UPDATE...
THE TSTORMS WHICH WERE OVER THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED. RADAR IS NOW QUIET ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. HRRR SHOWING VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WHICH AT FIRST LOOK SEEMS STRANGE AS THE MORNING MIAMI
SOUNDING IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR CONVECTION
WITH THE ANTICIPATED LATE DAY ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND
CONVERGING ON THE PREVAILING MEAN WSW WIND FLOW. HOWEVER, WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TELLS A STORY. A SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS SOUTH FL
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND IS NOW SEEN OVER THE BAHAMAS. SOUTH FL IS
NOW IN CONVERGING UPPER LEVEL WINDS AS EVIDENCED IN A LOOP OF
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE IS NOTED IN THE GFS WITH
SINKING AIR LOCALLY. GIVEN THIS HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT AS FAR AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST THOUGH DUE TO
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST. EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AND MINIMAL SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON, SO ONLY ADDED VCTS FOR THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS...AND NOT BEGINNING UNTIL 20Z. WILL ASSESS THE
MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING TO SEE IF POPS NEED TO BE LOWERED IN THE
PUBLIC FORECAST. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
WOW, IN MY DISCUSSION LAST NIGHT I MENTIONED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS
DO NOT HANDLE WELL AT ALL THE TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN SOUTH FLORIDA
IS IN CURRENTLY WHERE A FRONT STALLS OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN
SLOWLY DRIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. NONE OF THE MODELS LAST NIGHT WERE
SHOWING MUCH OF A MOISTURE INCREASE UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH NO CHANCE
OF THE INVERSION (CAP) BREAKING EITHER UNTIL WEDNESDAY. AS IT TURNED
OUT, MOISTURE RETURNED VIGOROUSLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION, WHILE THE CAP DID NOT COMPLETELY ERODE IT ALLOWED FOR
THE UPDRAFTS TO BREAK THROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PWAT JUMPED TO
OVER 2" OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. BY LATE IN THE DAY, A FEW TSTORMS
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY!
ENOUGH OF THE HINDSIGHT, NOW BACK TO REALITY. THE LARGE SCALE MID
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN STATES HAS DEEPENED
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE DEEPNESS IN THE TROUGH IS NO
DOUBT ONE REASON WHY THE MOISTURE FIELD WAS ABLE TO RETURN SO
SWIFTLY. CURRENT GPS MET DATA SHOWS THE DEEPEST LAYER MOISTURE
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH BUT THAT THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE
AIRMASS OVER FAR SOUTH FLORIDA IS RIGHT AT NORMAL AND RANGING DOWN TO
AROUND 90% OF NORMAL NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR MID OCTOBER. THROUGH
FRIDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL FLATTEN SOMEWHAT BUT THE LARGE SCALE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THUS, THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCH ITS WAY NORTHWARD WITH THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PWAT VALUES TO OUR SOUTH ARE
IN THE RANGE OF 115- 120% OF NORMAL SO THIS WILL BE ENOUGH FUEL TO
KEEP THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ESPECIALLY IF THOSE HIGHER VALUES
MOVE INTO THE AREA.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL HANG AROUND INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PWAT VALUES OF OVER 2" AND A DEEPER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. IN TURN, A VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
DEVELOPING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACHES AND PROBABLY INCREASING TO A HIGH RISK. THE AIRMASS WILL
ALSO DRY OUT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING PWAT FALLING WELL
BELOW 1.5" DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WOULD STILL EXPECT SOME FAST
MOVING LOW TOPPED SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH THE LOW
LEVELS REMAINING SOMEWHAT MOIST.
MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE WIND WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY
AND THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST THURSDAY AT SPEEDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS. ON SUNDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO
TIGHTEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES STRENGTHENS.
A NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 72 87 77 / 40 40 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 75 87 76 / 30 30 40 50
MIAMI 88 75 87 76 / 40 30 40 50
NAPLES 88 72 89 74 / 20 10 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
325 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP WEATHER PATTERN QUIET AND
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S HAS PUSHED INTO THE REGION NORTH OF A
COTULLA TO CORPUS CHRISTI LINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PUSH IN HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FOR TONIGHT. SET UP FOR RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS GOOD
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA AREA AS 12Z NAM AND
LATEST RAP MODELS INDICATE. WILL SHOW AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR INLAND COASTAL PLAINS.
EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
SURFACE-85H LAYER INTO THE COASTAL BEND THURSDAY. LEANED TOWARD
THE COOLER NAM FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY. RADIATIONAL FOG
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER INLAND AREAS AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DRY AIR AND RIDGING ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE RETURN FINALLY RESUMES THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND
OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL BEND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DISCREPANCIES AS YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR A DAY 7 AND 8
FORECAST...BUT INCREASING MOISTURE AND GENERALLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC
FLOW WARRANT MENTION ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
INFLOW LOOKS TO BE STRONGER.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS SHOULD ACT TO REDUCE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...BUT EXPECT OVERALL TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 90 71 91 69 / 0 10 0 0 0
VICTORIA 61 91 65 91 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 71 93 71 93 66 / 0 10 10 0 0
ALICE 67 92 67 93 66 / 0 10 10 0 0
ROCKPORT 71 88 72 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
COTULLA 64 93 65 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 67 91 68 92 67 / 0 10 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 73 88 74 88 74 / 0 10 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO THIS SURFACE
HIGH...AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS THE LOW DROPS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CLOUD TRENDS AND SMALL PRECIP
CHANCES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
WESTERLY BREEZE. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND PATCHES OF MID-
CLOUDS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME DISCUSSION WHETHER
SPRINKLES COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT PROGGED SOUNDINGS ARE
QUITE DRY BELOW 700MB. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S.
THURSDAY...MID-CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW OVER ONTARIO AND FILTER SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BECOME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. COLDER DRIER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA
ON NORTHWEST WINDS. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -8 C ACROSS THE NORTH BY
FRIDAY MORNING. DELTA T/S AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SUPPORT A LIGHT
MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS...ANY SNOW MIX WILL LIKELY BE DOWNSTREAM
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP THE LATER PERIODS STARTING FRIDAY
EVENING DRY AS A DRIER AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S
FILTER INTO THE AREA. TRAJECTORY MAY STILL PRODUCE LIGHT PCPN
ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER FRIDAY...BUT BIGGER ISSUES COULD BE
FORECAST TEMPS VS AMOUNT OF LAKE CLOUD PLUME DEVELOPMENT.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WORK INTO THE WESTERN
STATES AND NUDGE THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL STATES FOR THE
WEEKEND FOR A PLEASANT BUT COOL WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS.
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK
WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. PROG TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THIS NEXT
WAVE AND RESULTANT NEXT PCPN CHANCES FOR LATER MONDAY. THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY AID IN SLOWING THE FRONT DOWN
TO KEEP PCPN CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
FORECAST LOW TEMPS FOR SAT MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL OF KILLING FROSTS OR FREEZE. OUTDOOR INTERESTS WILL
NEED ANTICIPATE THESE CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE GROWING
SEASON FOR THE REMAINING REGION OVER EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH
GUSTY WSW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WNW WINDS ON THURSDAY. PERIODS
OF SCT TO BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC