Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/13/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
950 AM MST SUN OCT 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLEAR SKIES TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA ACROSS MUCH
OF SONORA MEXICO. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 1-2
HOURS DEPICTED THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS TO BE ERODING UPON
APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z WERE IN THE LOWER-MID
50S...AND THESE TEMPS WERE GENERALLY UNCHANGED VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO.
HOWEVER...11/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.30
INCHES WAS NEARLY 0.50 INCH HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE MOST
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE INCREASE OCCURRED IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER.
11/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SW OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 25N/119W...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SRN
CALIFORNIA SEWD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. LIGHT SLY/SWLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS SE ARIZONA ABOVE 700 MB.
11/12Z NAM AND SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ERN
SANTA CRUZ/SW COCHISE COUNTY AND NEAR THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN
ERN COCHISE COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE 11/12Z GFS AND UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM
DEPICT PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA
INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE INHERITED LOW-GRADE POPS...WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. THE BEST LOCALES FOR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS
TO OCCUR SHOULD BE MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT
SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. ANY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD
TERMINATE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH TEMPS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3-6 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. PLEASE
REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /311 AM MST/...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD
CHANGE VERY LITTLE INTO MONDAY. NAM AND GFS POINT SOUNDINGS ARE
AGAIN SHOWING A SLIVER OF INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...JUST ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AGAIN. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO TAKE HOLD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE TAKES CONTROL...ALBEIT
BRIEFLY...OF OUR WEATHER. 850-700 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER-90S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEAR
RECORD HEAT WITH WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY AT THIS TIME.
THE FORECAST THEN GETS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LOW STARTS TO PUSH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
DISPARITY...UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN THE LOW PREDICTABILITY IN THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN. IN GENERAL...INCREASED POPS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE AND INCREASING DYNAMICS SHOULD FOSTER SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FAVORED AREAS GENERALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. EITHER WAY YOU LOOK AT IT...THIS CERTAINLY IS QUITE THE UNIQUE
CASE OF AN UPPER-LOW THAT DOESN`T SEEM TO WANT TO LEAVE THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALONE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/12Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA MAY OCCUR SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS MAINLY
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 8-12K FT AGL AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL.
SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND COCHISE
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
311 AM MST SUN OCT 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON TODAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACE
AN UPPER-LOW.../THE SAME LOW THAT JUST RECENTLY MOVED OUT OF OUR
AREA/...OFF THE BAJA COAST ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING WHICH EXTENDS
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THE POSITION OF THIS LOW IS FACILITATING A
DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
MEXICO. IR SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH...AND SOME OF THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
IT APPEARS AS IF WE`LL MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF TUCSON...WITH
PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE THAN WE SAW ON SATURDAY. INDEED...RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN PRETTY AGGRESSIVELY HINTING AT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 20Z ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
HOWEVER...BASED ON YESTERDAY`S PERFORMANCE...AM INCLINED TO LEAN MORE
TOWARDS THE MORE SUBDUED HRRRX SOLUTION. AT ANY RATE...NUDGED POPS
UP TO A BIT THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE INTO MONDAY. NAM
AND GFS POINT SOUNDINGS ARE AGAIN SHOWING A SLIVER OF INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...JUST ENOUGH TO
WARRANT LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AGAIN.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO TAKE HOLD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE TAKES CONTROL...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...OF OUR
WEATHER. 850-700 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER-90S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEAR RECORD HEAT WITH
WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY AT THIS TIME.
THE FORECAST THEN GETS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LOW STARTS TO PUSH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
DISPARITY...UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN THE LOW PREDICTABILITY IN THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN. IN GENERAL...INCREASED POPS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE AND INCREASING DYNAMICS SHOULD FOSTER SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FAVORED AREAS GENERALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. EITHER WAY YOU LOOK AT IT...THIS CERTAINLY IS QUITE THE UNIQUE
CASE OF AN UPPER-LOW THAT DOESN`T SEEM TO WANT TO LEAVE THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALONE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. ISOLATED STORMS MAY APPROACH KDUG AND KOLS AFTER 22Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN BECOMING GENERALLY NORTHWEST
5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 22Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL BE TERRAIN DRIVEN...GIVING WAY TO
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST COMPONENT FOR MOST AREAS AFTER NOON. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE BY
LATE WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CARLAW
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CANTIN
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
914 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...
QUIET WX PATTERN AS DEEP WRLY FLOW OVER THE GOMEX PUSHES A
WEAK/SHALLOW HIGH PRES RIDGE ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE WITH A SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
PREVAILING ARND THE H85 LVL...H85-H50 MEAN RH VALUES AOB 30PCT...
DECREASING VORTICITY THRU THE H85-H30 LYR...AND A WEAKLY CONVERGENT
H30-H20 LYR.
LCL AIRMASS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY LATE EVNG AS THE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD AND THE LCL PGRAD COLLAPSES. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS
0-0.5KM MEAN RH IN THE NE GOMEX BTWN 70-80PCT...SUGGESTING PTCHY FOG
ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR IN THE PREDAWN HRS. IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINIMAL...HOWEVER...AS FOG FORMATIONS SUCH AS THIS DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFT SUNRISE.
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S/L60S COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WNDS
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ON THE SAME ORDER...WHILE WRLY WINDS ON
TUE SHOULD PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE M80S.
WED-THU...
A WEAK DRY COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA WED AND
CLEAR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LATE OVERNIGHT WED. TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING LIMITED DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO AROUND
850MB/5000 FEET AND LITTLE MID LEVEL VORTICITY FOR THE FRONT TO WORK
WITH. CURRENT LESS THAN 15 POP STILL A GOOD CALL.
FRI-SUN...(PREV DISC)
THE 12/12Z MEX SHOWING POP 15 OR LESS FOR THE AREA THROUGH MON OCT
19TH.
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI
S/SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE
ELEVATED E/NE FLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWER BANDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST UP TO 30 TO 50 POP VERO
BEACH SOUTH FRI THROUGH SUN PERCENT WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE WITH DECREASING POPS FARTHER NORTH AND INLAND.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST FROM
THE CAPE SOUTHWARD AND MID-UPPER 60S FARTHER INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING MAINLY VFR TONIGHT/TUE.
GROUND FOG POSSIBLE IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-TUE...GENERALLY GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT TO
GENTLE MAINLY WESTERLY BREEZE. OPEN WATERS FROM CAPE NORTHWARD MAY
HAVE WEST WINDS PICK UP TO 10-15 KNOTS AND PRODUCE AN AGGRAVATING
WIND CHOP FOR SMALL BOATS RETURNING TO PORT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY... THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR WAS AT 2.95 FT THIS
EVENING...0.15 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT DELAND HAS REMAINED
NEARLY STEADY JUST BELOW ACTION STAGE.
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE BENIGN THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT THE NEW MOON AND A SMALL EAST SWELL WILL LIKELY KEEP
INLAND WATERWAYS NEAR THE COAST ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
907 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.UPDATE...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
NOW IN PLACE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND ALLOWED A LARGE
SWATH OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO OVERSPREAD OUR SKIES. THE
13/00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS THIS SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH IMPRESSIVE LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
THROUGH A DEEP EXTENT OF THE COLUMN THIS EVENING. THE PW VALUES IS
WELL UNDER 1"...AND ALSO WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
OCTOBER. THEREFORE...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT OUR SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR. MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU HAVE DISSIPATED AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AWAY FROM THE COAST
AS WE APPROACH DAWN AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST NARRE
GUIDANCE...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE OR AVIATION
INTERESTS.
ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT WEATHER DAY ON TAP FOR TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER
OF THE COLUMN ABOVE THE PENINSULA WILL REMAIN DRY AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL STAY NEAR ZERO. OUR NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTH...SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AS IT APPEARS NOW...THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE RECOVERY TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE.
SO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDING IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE FOR
THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PENINSULA.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS AROUND DAWN FOR
KLAL AND KPGD...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY.
A WEAK AND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. WINDS VEER NORTHEAST AND EASTERLY FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...REACHING CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT TIMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 69 85 72 86 / 0 0 10 0
FMY 69 87 73 88 / 0 10 10 0
GIF 65 86 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 68 85 70 85 / 0 10 0 0
BKV 59 85 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 71 85 73 85 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
600 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
EXPIRED RED FLAG WARNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NW GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NW FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE FROM SE MONTANA ACROSS OUR CWA AND OVER
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...RFW WAS ISSUED EARLIER BASED
ON TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. AS EXPECTED
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS HOWEVER WITH STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (REFLECTED
ON AREA VAD WIND PROFILES AND RAP SOUNDINGS)...THERE SHOULD BE 3HR
OF RFW CRITERIA OVER EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
WAS WHETHER 3HR CRITERIA WOULD BE MET FURTHER WEST. WHILE IT IS
MARGINAL THERE IS STILL A SOLID WINDOW FOR RFW AT LEAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE WARNING.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE PATTERN
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH NW FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. DEEP DRY AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL DESPITE A FEW PASSING
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND LOW TD VALUES WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S DESPITE WAA ALOFT. LOW LYING VALLEYS AND
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY SEE ISOLATED FROST CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WITH UPPER
LOW TRANSITIONING EASTWARD RISING HEIGHTS/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY NOT
WARM UP QUITE AS MUCH...HOWEVER MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING FOR THE
MOST PART A PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA.
THE EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WERE SOME AMPLIFICATION
WAS TAKEN PLACE AND OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHERE A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT SYSTEM WERE LOCATED IN A MEAN TROUGH.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE. THE SREF WAS STARTED OUT BEST WITH THE SURFACE
WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO START OUT TOO COLD.
THE NAM...CANADIAN AND ECMWF WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE SO WOULD EXPECT A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR TEMPERATURES TOO COOL OFF...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS. SO LOWERED MINS ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. RETURN FLOW/RECYCLED COOL AIR IS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE PRETTY CLOSE WITH PLENTY OF
SUN EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR THE CLUSTERING OF THE
GUIDANCE BUT TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER ESPECIALLY MY EASTERN AREAS
WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT NOT TOO FAR AWAY. SO MINS WILL BE TRICKY. WINDS ARE MUCH
LIGHTER IN THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF IT. TENDED TO GO WITH THE SLIGHTLY BELOW THE GUIDANCE.
THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THEY DIFFER ON TIMING/VALUES...MODELS DO SHOW
THE TEMPERATURES COOLING THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO EARLY HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH STEADY OR FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TENDED TOWARD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SINCE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
THAT. STILL MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN A SPLITTING TROUGH STARTS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS IS FASTER/LOWER WITH HEIGHTS THAN THE
ECMWF. ENSEMBLES DIFFER ON THIS AS WELL. IN GENERAL THEY DO KEEP
THIS TROUGH AS AN OPEN WAVE AND A LITTLE FASTER.
IF THE FASTER SPEED DOES WORK OUT...TROUGH MAY BE APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...NOT SURE IF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY MUCH MOISTURE OR DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
WORK CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT/SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. FOR THE MOST
PART A DRY FORECAST IS STILL APPROPRIATE. HOWEVER...THE INIT GAVE ME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MY SOUTHERN PORTION SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. AT THE SAME TIME
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SO
CONSIDERED THAT AND AFTER COLLABORATION...HAVE LEFT THAT IN.
THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A PRETTY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF SATURDAY WHEN A WARMUP STARTS.
CONSIDERING THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE
PLACE...BELIEVE THAT THE MINS THAT NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN WHAT
THE INIT GAVE. SO AFTER COLLABORATION DID LOWER THE MINS. WINDS DO
COME UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE EASTERN PORTION HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT. SO AFTER COLLABORATION...DID
LOWER SLIGHTLY IN MY EASTERN/NORTHEAST LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME LOOKS GOOD AND PLAN ON
NO ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH RIDGING
ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE BREEZY
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
517 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NW GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NW FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE FROM SE MONTANA ACROSS OUR CWA AND OVER
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...RFW WAS ISSUED EARLIER BASED
ON TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. AS EXPECTED
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS HOWEVER WITH STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (REFLECTED
ON AREA VAD WIND PROFILES AND RAP SOUNDINGS)...THERE SHOULD BE 3HR
OF RFW CRITERIA OVER EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
WAS WHETHER 3HR CRITERIA WOULD BE MET FURTHER WEST. WHILE IT IS
MARGINAL THERE IS STILL A SOLID WINDOW FOR RFW AT LEAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE WARNING.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE PATTERN
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH NW FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. DEEP DRY AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL DESPITE A FEW PASSING
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND LOW TD VALUES WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S DESPITE WAA ALOFT. LOW LYING VALLEYS AND
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY SEE ISOLATED FROST CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WITH UPPER
LOW TRANSITIONING EASTWARD RISING HEIGHTS/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY NOT
WARM UP QUITE AS MUCH...HOWEVER MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING FOR THE
MOST PART A PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA.
THE EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WERE SOME AMPLIFICATION
WAS TAKEN PLACE AND OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHERE A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT SYSTEM WERE LOCATED IN A MEAN TROUGH.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE. THE SREF WAS STARTED OUT BEST WITH THE SURFACE
WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO START OUT TOO COLD.
THE NAM...CANADIAN AND ECMWF WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE SO WOULD EXPECT A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR TEMPERATURES TOO COOL OFF...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS. SO LOWERED MINS ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. RETURN FLOW/RECYCLED COOL AIR IS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE PRETTY CLOSE WITH PLENTY OF
SUN EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR THE CLUSTERING OF THE
GUIDANCE BUT TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER ESPECIALLY MY EASTERN AREAS
WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT NOT TOO FAR AWAY. SO MINS WILL BE TRICKY. WINDS ARE MUCH
LIGHTER IN THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF IT. TENDED TO GO WITH THE SLIGHTLY BELOW THE GUIDANCE.
THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THEY DIFFER ON TIMING/VALUES...MODELS DO SHOW
THE TEMPERATURES COOLING THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO EARLY HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH STEADY OR FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TENDED TOWARD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SINCE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
THAT. STILL MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN A SPLITTING TROUGH STARTS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS IS FASTER/LOWER WITH HEIGHTS THAN THE
ECMWF. ENSEMBLES DIFFER ON THIS AS WELL. IN GENERAL THEY DO KEEP
THIS TROUGH AS AN OPEN WAVE AND A LITTLE FASTER.
IF THE FASTER SPEED DOES WORK OUT...TROUGH MAY BE APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...NOT SURE IF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY MUCH MOISTURE OR DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
WORK CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT/SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. FOR THE MOST
PART A DRY FORECAST IS STILL APPROPRIATE. HOWEVER...THE INIT GAVE ME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MY SOUTHERN PORTION SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. AT THE SAME TIME
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SO
CONSIDERED THAT AND AFTER COLLABORATION...HAVE LEFT THAT IN.
THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A PRETTY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF SATURDAY WHEN A WARMUP STARTS.
CONSIDERING THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE
PLACE...BELIEVE THAT THE MINS THAT NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN WHAT
THE INIT GAVE. SO AFTER COLLABORATION DID LOWER THE MINS. WINDS DO
COME UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE EASTERN PORTION HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT. SO AFTER COLLABORATION...DID
LOWER SLIGHTLY IN MY EASTERN/NORTHEAST LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME LOOKS GOOD AND PLAN ON
NO ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH RIDGING
ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE BREEZY
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
243 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
OUR CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FROPA WITH STEEP PRESSURE RISES. AT THIS
TIME GUSTS 30-40 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.
UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT THEN TRANSITIONS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY. DUE TO A DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE A
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST
OVER EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES COME ACROSS THE FA IN THE FLOW. SOME LIFT IS
INDICATED BUT ADEQUATE MOISTURE IS LACKING. CHANCES FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW. CONSEQUENTLY,
POPS WILL BE NIL FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S. MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
EXIST IN EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH SUNDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. SATURDAY NIGHT MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO THE UPPER 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S THURSDAY TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND THEN BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH INCREASING
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS AT KMCK WHERE TIGHTER
SURFACE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE. SURFACE LOW NEAR KGLD SHOULD KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 12KT THROUGH THE EARLY TAF PERIOD. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS THIS EVENING AND A SHIFT IN
DIRECTION TO THE NW. AFTER INITIAL SURGE OF GUSTS AROUND 20KT
PASSES BOTH TERMINALS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEVEL OFF AROUND 12KT
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
THIS AFTERNOON...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING WITHIN A
VERY DRY AIR MASS ASS HAVE LED TO RH VALUES DROPPING TO 15 PERCENT
OR LESS ACROSS OUR CWA. WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA AND
MAIN LOW AND MID LEVEL JET AXIS REMAINING NORTH HAS RESULTED N
WINDS REMAINING BELOW RFW CRITERIA. AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD STILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA...SO THERE SHOULD STILL BE A WINDOW FOR
25 MPH BEFORE SUNSET IN SW NEBRASKA/NE COLORADO. NO CHANGES
PLANNED TO CURRENT RFW AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY...VERY LOW TD VALUES WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR CWA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH VALUES IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S. UNIDIRECTIONAL
GRADIENT WILL BE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...SO WHILE THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON COULD SEE GUSTS 20-30 MPH THERE WILL ONLY BE A
SMALL WINDOW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN CWA FOR 25
MPH/LOWER RH VALUES. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION AND UNCERTAINTY OF 3HR OF RFW CONDITIONS. WITH ONGOING
RFW AND LOW CONFIDENCE THE DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUANCE OF WATCH DURING THIS UPDATE CYCLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1116 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO ACROSS EH SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PASSING HIGH CLOUD COVER. AT THE
SURFACE...SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO WESTERLY FLOW AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS REMAINING IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA...WITH INCREASING WAA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRIMARY CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
(SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION) AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE DAILY RECORD HIGHS BROKEN
ACROSS OUR CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORS HIGHS 90-95F...WHICH COULD STILL PLACE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITHIN RANGE OF MONTHLY RECORDS. WARMER END OF GUIDANCE NOW
SUPPORTS HIGHS 95 (GOODLAND) TO 100F (MCCOOK) WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE
MONTHLY RECORDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA. WHILE MIXING SHOULD
BE VERY DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...TEMPS ALOFT SEEM TO SUPPORT
THE LOWER END OF THIS SPECTRUM AND MODEL CONSENSUS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST MONDAY, FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT EVEN THROUGH DYNAMICS FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH ARE NEARBY. THERE IS SIMPLY A LACK OF MOISTURE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS LACK OF MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY POPS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE NIL.
MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA. MIN
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY.
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA
WEST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S DURING THIS
TIME. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH FROM NEBRASKA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. IF TD TRENDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE ANY INDICATION WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EVEN WARMER. THE BIGGEST QUESTION REGARDING POTENTIAL
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE WINDS...WITH PEAK WINDS ALOFT STILL NORTH
OF OUR CWA. GFS HAS TRENDED HIGHER AND MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW OF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34. NAM AND OTHER
GUIDANCE ON THE OTHER HAND SUPPORTS WHAT WOULD BE INFREQUENT WIND
GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT PEAK WINDS IN THE MIXED
LAYER. THIS IS A VERY NARROW WINDOW IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA...AND 3HR OCCURRENCE IS IN DOUBT. I DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUANCE OF WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE DUE TO THE MARGINAL
WIND CONDITIONS.
MONDAY...DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET CRITERIA EXCEPT IN THE MORNING OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHEN RH VALUES WILL HIGHER. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES GO LOWER BUT SPEEDS THEN WILL EVEN BE
LOWER. LATER SHIFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER FOR
MONDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
RECORDS FOR SATURDAY
GOODLAND.....90 SET IN 1920
TRIBUNE......91 SET IN 1920
BURLINGTON...90 SET IN 1962
YUMA.........87 SET IN 1962
RECORDS FOR SUNDAY
GOODLAND.....93 SET IN 1996 (MONTHLY RECORD 96 IN 1926)
COLBY........90 SET IN 1955 (MONTHLY RECORD 97 IN 2000)
TRIBUNE......90 SET IN 1975 (MONTHLY RECORD 95 IN 2007)
HILL CITY....94 SET IN 1975
BURLINGTON...90 SET IN 1996 (MONTHLY RECORD 93 IN 2007)
YUMA.........86 SET IN 1989
MCCOOK.......90 SET IN 1962 (MONTHLY RECORD 98 IN 1928)
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
GOODLAND.....91
COLBY........94
TRIBUNE......92
HILL CITY....96
BURLINGTON...90
YUMA.........89
MCCOOK.......95
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR/FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
122 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
MOST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS HAS FINALLY LIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN KY. ISOLATED SPOTS NEARER THE VA BORDER MAY DEAL WITH
SOME LINGERING STRATUS/FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR. MOST SPOTS HAVE BEEN
MET WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS WITH A FEW SPOTS ALREADY
IN THE LOWER 60S PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS. UPDATED GRIDS
WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
THIS UPDATE. ALSO UPDATED HWO TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
CONTINUING TO DEAL WITH AREAS TO PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY THIS LATE MORNING HOUR. DID OPT TO ADD A BIT MORE TO
THE WX GRIDS THIS HOUR GIVEN THAT IT HOLDS ON IN THE SE AND SW. DO
STILL THINK THIS WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WE WILL
BE LEFT WITH SUNNY SKIES. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE VALLEYS AND IS EVEN AFFECTING SOME
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EVIDENCED BY THE SOCKED IN JKL AND HAZ
AIRPORT SENSORS. STILL EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF OR LIFT BY 14Z. DID
FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDGED
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST. THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A COOL AIR MASS INTO THE
STATE ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS. OUTSIDE OF
THE CLOUDED AREA...A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS TO NEAR 50 ON THE RIDGES. THE STRATUS IS ALSO HINDERING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE CLEAR AND CLOUDY
SKIES...THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE REST OF THE
CLOUD FREE AREA TO SEE FOG AND LOCALIZED DENSE VALLEY FOG INTO
DAWN. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS ARE
SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES AT MOST PLACES WITH THE WINDS LIGHT
THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A STRONGER
LOW/TROUGH BARRELING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH MOVES BODILY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS INFLUENCE SPREADING WELL SOUTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF ENERGY AND
LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FOGGY START FOR MOST IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY GIVING WAY TO A PLEASANT AND MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
SETTING UP ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES...THOUGH MAYBE
SLIGHTLY LARGER IN THE FAR EAST. FOR MONDAY...A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH EAST KENTUCKY DRIVEN BY THE QUICK MOVING
TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...
BUT ENOUGH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SHEAR COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AMID ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. WILL ADD THESE TO THE
FORECAST AND HWO.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN THIS
MORNING FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH
THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH MONDAY. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME RELATIVE
ELEVATION BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AMPING
UP THE RIDGE AND VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WAS A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE IN THE EXTENDED. THE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY MOISTURE STARVED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND THERE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA BEHIND EACH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE COOLEST WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON ITS EASTWARD TREK ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY...WITH VALUES
MAXING OUT IN THE LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FIRST INVASION OF
COLD AIR IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS A
PARTICULARLY SHARP TROUGH ALOFT CARVES A PATH OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES IN OUR NORMALLY COLDEST
VALLEYS MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO THE FIRST FROST OF THE YOUNG FALL SEASON. AFTER A
BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 ON
FRIDAY MORNING...AS A SECOND SHOT OF PARTICULARLY COOL AIR SPILLS
INTO THE AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER
TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE STARVED SURFACE FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY
AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER MID TO UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
COULD AGAIN LEAD TO FROST FORMATION IN OUR COLDEST VALLEYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FOG TONIGHT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE QUITE THE EXTENSIVE AS THIS
MORNING. RIGHT NOW OPTED TO PLAY MVFR FOG AT BOTH LOZ AND SME AT
06Z...OTHER SITES CONFIDENCE IS LOWER OVERALL. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1158 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
MOST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS HAS FINALLY LIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN KY. ISOLATED SPOTS NEARER THE VA BORDER MAY DEAL WITH
SOME LINGERING STRATUS/FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR. MOST SPOTS HAVE BEEN
MET WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS WITH A FEW SPOTS ALREADY
IN THE LOWER 60S PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS. UPDATED GRIDS
WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
THIS UPDATE. ALSO UPDATED HWO TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
CONTINUING TO DEAL WITH AREAS TO PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY THIS LATE MORNING HOUR. DID OPT TO ADD A BIT MORE TO
THE WX GRIDS THIS HOUR GIVEN THAT IT HOLDS ON IN THE SE AND SW. DO
STILL THINK THIS WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WE WILL
BE LEFT WITH SUNNY SKIES. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE VALLEYS AND IS EVEN AFFECTING SOME
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EVIDENCED BY THE SOCKED IN JKL AND HAZ
AIRPORT SENSORS. STILL EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF OR LIFT BY 14Z. DID
FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDGED
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST. THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A COOL AIR MASS INTO THE
STATE ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS. OUTSIDE OF
THE CLOUDED AREA...A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS TO NEAR 50 ON THE RIDGES. THE STRATUS IS ALSO HINDERING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE CLEAR AND CLOUDY
SKIES...THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE REST OF THE
CLOUD FREE AREA TO SEE FOG AND LOCALIZED DENSE VALLEY FOG INTO
DAWN. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS ARE
SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES AT MOST PLACES WITH THE WINDS LIGHT
THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A STRONGER
LOW/TROUGH BARRELING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH MOVES BODILY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS INFLUENCE SPREADING WELL SOUTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF ENERGY AND
LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FOGGY START FOR MOST IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY GIVING WAY TO A PLEASANT AND MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
SETTING UP ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES...THOUGH MAYBE
SLIGHTLY LARGER IN THE FAR EAST. FOR MONDAY...A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH EAST KENTUCKY DRIVEN BY THE QUICK MOVING
TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...
BUT ENOUGH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SHEAR COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AMID ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. WILL ADD THESE TO THE
FORECAST AND HWO.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN THIS
MORNING FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH
THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH MONDAY. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME RELATIVE
ELEVATION BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AMPING
UP THE RIDGE AND VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WAS A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE IN THE EXTENDED. THE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY MOISTURE STARVED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND THERE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA BEHIND EACH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE COOLEST WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON ITS EASTWARD TREK ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY...WITH VALUES
MAXING OUT IN THE LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FIRST INVASION OF
COLD AIR IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS A
PARTICULARLY SHARP TROUGH ALOFT CARVES A PATH OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES IN OUR NORMALLY COLDEST
VALLEYS MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO THE FIRST FROST OF THE YOUNG FALL SEASON. AFTER A
BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 ON
FRIDAY MORNING...AS A SECOND SHOT OF PARTICULARLY COOL AIR SPILLS
INTO THE AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER
TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE STARVED SURFACE FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY
AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER MID TO UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
COULD AGAIN LEAD TO FROST FORMATION IN OUR COLDEST VALLEYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AT THE
MAJORITY OF THE SITES. ONCE THIS BURNS OFF LATER THIS MORNING...
AROUND 14-15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LATER TONIGHT...
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS...POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING SOME OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
CONTINUING TO DEAL WITH AREAS TO PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY THIS LATE MORNING HOUR. DID OPT TO ADD A BIT MORE TO
THE WX GRIDS THIS HOUR GIVEN THAT IT HOLDS ON IN THE SE AND SW. DO
STILL THINK THIS WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WE WILL
BE LEFT WITH SUNNY SKIES. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE VALLEYS AND IS EVEN AFFECTING SOME
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EVIDENCED BY THE SOCKED IN JKL AND HAZ
AIRPORT SENSORS. STILL EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF OR LIFT BY 14Z. DID
FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDGED
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST. THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A COOL AIR MASS INTO THE
STATE ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS. OUTSIDE OF
THE CLOUDED AREA...A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS TO NEAR 50 ON THE RIDGES. THE STRATUS IS ALSO HINDERING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE CLEAR AND CLOUDY
SKIES...THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE REST OF THE
CLOUD FREE AREA TO SEE FOG AND LOCALIZED DENSE VALLEY FOG INTO
DAWN. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS ARE
SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES AT MOST PLACES WITH THE WINDS LIGHT
THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A STRONGER
LOW/TROUGH BARRELING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH MOVES BODILY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS INFLUENCE SPREADING WELL SOUTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF ENERGY AND
LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FOGGY START FOR MOST IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY GIVING WAY TO A PLEASANT AND MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
SETTING UP ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES...THOUGH MAYBE
SLIGHTLY LARGER IN THE FAR EAST. FOR MONDAY...A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH EAST KENTUCKY DRIVEN BY THE QUICK MOVING
TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...
BUT ENOUGH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SHEAR COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AMID ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. WILL ADD THESE TO THE
FORECAST AND HWO.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN THIS
MORNING FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH
THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH MONDAY. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME RELATIVE
ELEVATION BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AMPING
UP THE RIDGE AND VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WAS A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE IN THE EXTENDED. THE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY MOISTURE STARVED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND THERE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA BEHIND EACH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE COOLEST WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON ITS EASTWARD TREK ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY...WITH VALUES
MAXING OUT IN THE LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FIRST INVASION OF
COLD AIR IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS A
PARTICULARLY SHARP TROUGH ALOFT CARVES A PATH OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES IN OUR NORMALLY COLDEST
VALLEYS MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO THE FIRST FROST OF THE YOUNG FALL SEASON. AFTER A
BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 ON
FRIDAY MORNING...AS A SECOND SHOT OF PARTICULARLY COOL AIR SPILLS
INTO THE AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER
TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE STARVED SURFACE FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY
AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER MID TO UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
COULD AGAIN LEAD TO FROST FORMATION IN OUR COLDEST VALLEYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AT THE
MAJORITY OF THE SITES. ONCE THIS BURNS OFF LATER THIS MORNING...
AROUND 14-15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LATER TONIGHT...
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS...POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING SOME OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE VALLEYS AND IS EVEN AFFECTING SOME
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EVIDENCED BY THE SOCKED IN JKL AND HAZ
AIRPORT SENSORS. STILL EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF OR LIFT BY 14Z. DID
FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDGED
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST. THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A COOL AIR MASS INTO THE
STATE ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS. OUTSIDE OF
THE CLOUDED AREA...A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS TO NEAR 50 ON THE RIDGES. THE STRATUS IS ALSO HINDERING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE CLEAR AND CLOUDY
SKIES...THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE REST OF THE
CLOUD FREE AREA TO SEE FOG AND LOCALIZED DENSE VALLEY FOG INTO
DAWN. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS ARE
SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES AT MOST PLACES WITH THE WINDS LIGHT
THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A STRONGER
LOW/TROUGH BARRELING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH MOVES BODILY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS INFLUENCE SPREADING WELL SOUTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF ENERGY AND
LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FOGGY START FOR MOST IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY GIVING WAY TO A PLEASANT AND MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
SETTING UP ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES...THOUGH MAYBE
SLIGHTLY LARGER IN THE FAR EAST. FOR MONDAY...A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH EAST KENTUCKY DRIVEN BY THE QUICK MOVING
TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...
BUT ENOUGH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SHEAR COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AMID ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. WILL ADD THESE TO THE
FORECAST AND HWO.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN THIS
MORNING FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH
THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH MONDAY. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME RELATIVE
ELEVATION BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AMPING
UP THE RIDGE AND VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WAS A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE IN THE EXTENDED. THE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY MOISTURE STARVED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND THERE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA BEHIND EACH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE COOLEST WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON ITS EASTWARD TREK ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY...WITH VALUES
MAXING OUT IN THE LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FIRST INVASION OF
COLD AIR IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS A
PARTICULARLY SHARP TROUGH ALOFT CARVES A PATH OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES IN OUR NORMALLY COLDEST
VALLEYS MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO THE FIRST FROST OF THE YOUNG FALL SEASON. AFTER A
BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 ON
FRIDAY MORNING...AS A SECOND SHOT OF PARTICULARLY COOL AIR SPILLS
INTO THE AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER
TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE STARVED SURFACE FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY
AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER MID TO UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
COULD AGAIN LEAD TO FROST FORMATION IN OUR COLDEST VALLEYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AT THE
MAJORITY OF THE SITES. ONCE THIS BURNS OFF LATER THIS MORNING...
AROUND 14-15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LATER TONIGHT...
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS...POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING SOME OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
350 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDGED
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST. THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A COOL AIR MASS INTO THE
STATE ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS. OUTSIDE OF
THE CLOUDED AREA...A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS TO NEAR 50 ON THE RIDGES. THE STRATUS IS ALSO HINDERING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE CLEAR AND CLOUDY
SKIES...THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE REST OF THE
CLOUD FREE AREA TO SEE FOG AND LOCALIZED DENSE VALLEY FOG INTO
DAWN. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS ARE
SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES AT MOST PLACES WITH THE WINDS LIGHT
THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A STRONGER
LOW/TROUGH BARRELING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH MOVES BODILY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS INFLUENCE SPREADING WELL SOUTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF ENERGY AND
LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FOGGY START FOR MOST IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY GIVING WAY TO A PLEASANT AND MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
SETTING UP ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES...THOUGH MAYBE
SLIGHTLY LARGER IN THE FAR EAST. FOR MONDAY...A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH EAST KENTUCKY DRIVEN BY THE QUICK MOVING
TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...
BUT ENOUGH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SHEAR COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AMID ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. WILL ADD THESE TO THE
FORECAST AND HWO.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN THIS
MORNING FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH
THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH MONDAY. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME RELATIVE
ELEVATION BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AMPING
UP THE RIDGE AND VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WAS A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE IN THE EXTENDED. THE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY MOISTURE STARVED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND THERE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA BEHIND EACH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE COOLEST WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON ITS EASTWARD TREK ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY...WITH VALUES
MAXING OUT IN THE LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FIRST INVASION OF
COLD AIR IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS A
PARTICULARLY SHARP TROUGH ALOFT CARVES A PATH OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES IN OUR NORMALLY COLDEST
VALLEYS MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO THE FIRST FROST OF THE YOUNG FALL SEASON. AFTER A
BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 ON
FRIDAY MORNING...AS A SECOND SHOT OF PARTICULARLY COOL AIR SPILLS
INTO THE AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER
TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE STARVED SURFACE FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY
AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER MID TO UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
COULD AGAIN LEAD TO FROST FORMATION IN OUR COLDEST VALLEYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
FOG IS STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-64. KEPT TAFS
RATHER PESSIMISTIC FOR THIS FORECAST AS ONLY THING TO HINDER FOG
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS LAYER OFF THE
SFC. BROUGHT MOST SITES TO VLIFR IN THE DENSEST FOG AROUND DAWN.
ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...AROUND 14-15Z...CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
800 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHRTWV
ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER MOVING TO THE E...BRINGING 00Z-12Z H5
HGT FALLS UP TO 240M AT INL. DESPITE THE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ATTENDANT COLD FNT MOVING THRU THE
ERN CWA EARLY THIS AFTN IS PCPN FREE DUE TO DRYNESS OF THE MID LVLS
SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB. SKIES HAVE TURNED MOSUNNY FOLLOWING THE
COLD FROPA UNDER DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...BUT AREA OF DEEPER
MSTR DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND ASSOCIATED SECOND COLD
FNT MOVING THRU MN ARE BRINGING MORE CLDS TO THE W HALF AS
WELL AS SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN LK SUP/NW WI. WSW WINDS HAVE
BEEN GUSTING AS HI AS 30 TO 35 MPH AT SOME PLACES IN WI/WRN UPR MI
THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SECOND COLD FNT...BUT STRONGER NW WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSVD BEHIND THE SECOND FNT IN WRN MN/THE NRN
PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINDS/NEED FOR WIND
ADVYS AS WELL AS LAKE ENHANCED POPS.
TNGT...SHRTWV MOVING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SLOWLY ESEWD OVER THE NE HALF OF LK SUP THIS EVNG. ALTHOUGH THE
SHARPER DYANMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WL SLIDE TO
THE N OF UPR MI...BACKWASH MSTR/SHARP CYC FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF
SFC LO AND ATTENDANT SECOND COLD FNT WL BRING SOME SHOWERS W-E LATE
THIS AFTN/EVNG. AS SHARPER CYC NNW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND H85
TEMPS SLOWLY COOL BEHIND THE FROPA...SCT TO NMRS LK ENHANCED SHOWERS
WL LINGER DOWNWIND OF LK SUP UNDER THE DEEP MSTR IN SPITE OF LARGER
SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV.
THE PRES GRADIENT/H925 WINDS SPEEDS ARE FCST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY WITH
TIME THRU THE NGT...SO WINDS OVER UPR MI WL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
50 MPH GUSTS OBSVD UPSTREAM. THE CAA BEHIND THE FROPA AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND THE FNT ARE ALSO FCST TO BE MODERATE...BUT
OPTED TO RETAIN GOING WIND ADVY FOR THE KEWEENAW GIVEN FAVORABLE
EXPOSURE AND APRCH OF PRES RISE CENTER/STRONGER ISALLOBARIC WIND
AIMED AT THAT AREA IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
TUE...SHARP PRES GRADIENT AND RIBBON OF STRONGER H925 NW WINDS UP
TO 35 KTS ARE FCST TO BE OVER UPR MI AT 12Z TUE. FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE TRAILING/WEAKENING PRES RISE CENTER BY 18Z...THE PRES
GRADIENT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH. CONSIDERED A WIND ADVY FOR THE MORE
EXPOSED ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES...BUT OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ATTM GIVEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES RISE CENTER/GRADIENT AND MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THIS
AREA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WL PERSIST THRU THE DAY...THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF PRES RISE CENTER AT 18Z.
UPR MI WL REMAIN UNDER H85 THERMAL TROF WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO
AS ABOUT -2C IN LLVL NW FLOW AHEAD OF HI PRES MOVING INTO MN...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLDS TO LINGER EVEN IF THE SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISHES
WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE/WEAKENING CYC FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. WITH THE CLDS AND H85 THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
TEMPS TO RISE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE DEGREES FM THE MRNG LOWS. TUE WL
FEEL MUCH MORE AUTUMNAL THAN RECENT DAYS EVEN IF THE WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH IN THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD (TUESDAY
NIGHT)...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A POCKET OF 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -1 TO -2C OVER THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT
THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/CLOUDS (LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS IN THE LOWER
50S) TO CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT BELTS IN THE
EVENING EAST AND THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT OVER THE EAST...BUT THE WEST AND AREAS NEAR THE WISCONSIN
BORDER SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING. THAT CLEARING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOWARDS FREEZING. THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH OR MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...THE
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL STAY PRIMIARLY OVER
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS MOISTURE STARVED...BUT THERE SHOULD
BE SOME CLOUDS BRUSHING THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER TOWARDS LUCE COUNTY. A MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA) WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. AS THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN AND LOWER
MICHIGAN...IT WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
(STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION) AND QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY
FRIDAY. IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION AS THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH (BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE STAYS TO THE SOUTH)...BUT IT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THAT COLDER AIR (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
-6 TO -9C BY FRIDAY NIGHT) AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. THE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND AREAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND THIRD
SHORTWAVE. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND ALLOW WARMER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE DIURNAL DISRUPTION TO
THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITAION AND AIDED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING/DRYING AHEAD OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR SURGING IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A MIX OR CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW FOR AREAS OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL U.P..
PRECIPITATION TYPE ON FRIDAY LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE
ARRIVIAL OF THE COLDEST AIR (WITH THE 00Z ECMWF TRAILING THE 12Z
GFS BY AROUND 6HRS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT). THAT
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR WOULD PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW TO REMAIN MIXED IN WITH RAIN OVER THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY DUE TO 1000-850MB THICKNESSES (FALLING
BELOW 1300)...CLOUD MOVING INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AND WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS (FALLING BELOW 700FT). HAVE SHOWN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITIONED TO ALL SNOW HEADING INTO THE FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACCUMULATION ON
GRASSY/LEAF COVERED SURFACES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
AND NORTH CENTRAL ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BACKING WINDS SUNDAY AND FLOW BECOMING ZONAL ALOFT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING A BROAD LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT
SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE POSITION OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE BOTH TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT BOTH ARE CONSISTENT IN IT
BEING VERY NEAR THE U.P..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
DEEPER MOISTURE UNDER SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU AT LEAST TUE MORNING.
IN ADDITION...EXPECT -SHRA AT TIMES THRU THE NIGHT. PASSAGE OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING PRES RISE MAX FROM THE NW WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AT KIWD THIS EVENING...AT KCMX BY 06Z AND
AT KSAW LATE TONIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS...UP TO 35KT OR SO...WILL BE
AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TUE AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. MAY SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE TUE AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
EXPECT WIDESPREAD NW GALES TO 35 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE W HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER THE E HALF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT/ARRIVAL OF SHARPER PRES GRADIENT.
THESE GALES WILL THEN DIMINISH W-E ON TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A HI
PRES RDG/WEAKER GRADIENT. A TYPICAL FALL PATTERN WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH PASSAGE OF SEVERAL LO PRES TROUGHS.
SHIFTING WINDS WILL BE UP TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS AND SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WOULD BE
ON THU NIGHT-FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPER TROUGH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ248-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ244>247-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240-241-
263.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ242-243.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A GENERAL
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA ON THE NRN FLANK OF
UPR RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE PLAINS. AT
THE LLVLS...PERSISTENT WSW FLOW BTWN HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND
AREA OF LO PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA IS ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND DRY AIRMASS/AREA OF H85 TEMPS AOA 20C OVER MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL
CONUS INTO THE UPR LKS. THE COMBINATION OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND THE UNSEASONABLE H85
WARMTH IS RESULTING IN SOME RECORD/NEAR RECORD TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 70S AND EVEN THE 80S THIS AFTN AWAY FM LK MI MODERATION.
LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A POTENT SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW IS MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...RESULTING IN 12HR H5 HGT FALLS
UP TO 150M AND SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40-50 KTS OVER MONTANA.
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON FCST SURGE OF LLVL MSTR
SHOWN BY SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS INTO THE UPR LKS TNGT AHEAD OF
COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV TO THE W AND THEN POPS/WINDS ON MON
AS POTENT SHRTWV NOW APRCHG THE NRN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPR LKS.
TNGT...THIS EVNG WL BE MOCLR WITH WARM AND DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING.
BUT OVERNGT AS UPR SHRTWV MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND INTO
NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z...ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT IS FCST
TO SWING THRU THE WRN CWA AND REACH THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 12Z.
DESPITE 12HR H5 HGT FALLS FCST UP 150-200M AND A BAND OF DPVA/H85-5
QVECTOR CNVGC...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE FROPA WL BE A DRY ONE
GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MSTR INFLOW. BUT SEVERAL OF THE SHORTER TERM
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM...INDICATE STRENGTHENING LLVL SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WL ADVECT MORE LLVL MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS AND
BRING SOME LO CLDS. CONSIDERING THE WARMTH/DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS AND
STEADY WINDS THAT WOULD RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL/INCRS IN NEAR
SFC RH...FAVOR THE DRIER MODEL SCENARIOS THAT SHOW LOWER NEAR SFC
RH/LESS IN THE WAY OF LO CLDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...W WINDS
COULD GUST AS HI AS 25 TO 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH INCRSG CAA/
INSTABILITY.
MON...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE SHRTWV AS A
SECOND JET STREAK CORE DIGS INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY AND
AMPLIFIES THE ACCOMPANYING UPR TROFFING. THIS JET CORE ALSO HAS
RESULTED IN A SHARPER TRAILING SECOND SFC COLD FNT IN MN...WITH THE
RESULT A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER SFC WINDS OVER UPR MI UNTIL
THAT SECOND FNT/TROF PASSES LATE ON MON OR EVEN MON EVNG. SINCE THE
LLVL WINDS WL BE WEAKER AND MORE BACKED TO THE SW AND H85 TEMPS DO
NOT FALL AS QUICKLY WITH A HINT OF AN H85 THERMAL RDG AHEAD OF THE
SECOND FNT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY...WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LESS
EXPOSED KEWEENAW WL BE WEAKER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTN. FOR THIS REASON...DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVY FOR
THAT AREA UNTIL 00Z TUE. DRY SLOTTING FOLLOWING THE MRNG COLD FROPA
WL GRDLY GIVE WAY TO MORE CLDS AS AREA OF HIER RH WITHIN DEEP CYC
FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF CLOSED LO TRACKING THRU ONTARIO OVERSPREADS
THE AREA. HI CHC/LIKELY POPS WL RETURN OVER THE W DURING THE AFTN
WITH THE CORE OF THE DEEPER MSTR IN ADVANCE OF THE TRAILING SECOND
COLD FNT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE MUCH LOWER THAN TDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKWASH MSTR/CLDS WL ARRIVE EARLIER FOLLOWING
THE DRY SLOTTING...MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S WL STILL BE ABV NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
...STRONGEST WINDS DELAYED BUT STILL WINDY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVING ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS
PROGRESSIVE ATTM...BUT SYSTEM SLOWS CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS STRONGER JET STREAK AT H25 DIGS FM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAJORITY OF MODELS
HAVE LATCHED ON TO THIS MUCH SLOWER TREND WHICH DELAYS STRONGEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RESULTING ONSET OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
NEAR LK SUPERIOR UNTIL MONDAY EVENING AT THE EARLIEST. NO REAL
CHANGE TO EXPECTED STRENGTH OF WINDS...JUST THE TIMING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 3-8C /LOWEST WEST/ AT 21Z ON
MONDAY DOWN TO -2C TO 3C /LOWEST EAST/ AT 21Z ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
WINDS OF 35-45 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN GALES OVER LK
SUPERIOR AND WINDS NEARING ADVISORY LEVEL AT SHORELINE AREAS OF
KEWEENAW AND EVENTUALLY OVER ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES. STRONGEST
WINDS ON KEWEENAW WOULD BE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE EAST CWA WOULD NOT SEE STRONGER WINDS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT LASTING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
COORD WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER TO DELAY START OF WIND ADVISORY
ON KEWEENAW 00Z TUE THROUGH 12Z TUE.
GIVEN SLOWER TREND WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LINGERED HIGHER POPS
LONGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS STILL FEATURED OVER EAST
CWA ALONG TRACK OF SMALLER SHORTWAVE CROSSING LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO
JUST AHEAD OF SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE
IN THE EVENING. HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST INTERIOR SHOULD ALSO SEE THE
MOST SHOWERS AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS WITH NNW WINDS PROVIDING
UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THERE IS SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY AS
DELTA T/S ARE OVER 8C. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMES MUCH
SHALLOWER BY 12Z SO IT WILL TURN INTO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
SETUP. H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C OR AS LOW AS -2C WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN LEFTOVER CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH
IN WAY OF RAIN. MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE FINISHED UP BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. THERMAL TROUGH STILL IN THE AREA AND
WINDS COMING OFF LK SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY IN
THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE LOW-MID 50S SCNTRL.
REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMINATED BY SERIES OF TROUGHS DROPPING ACROSS
UPPER GREAT LAKES WED INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS TROUGH ALOFT PERSISTS
DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. LEAD SHORTWAVE AND
SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST FORCING AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN. SOUNDINGS
SHOWED FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE
SHOWERY. TEMPS MAY BOUNCE BACK SOME COMPARED TO THE TUE CHILL...BUT
READINGS IN THE AFTN COULD FALL A FEW DEGREES NEAR LK SUPERIOR ONCE
WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE. SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER THROUGH THU IN
STEADY NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THU PM INTO
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES. COLD AIR MORE ROBUST IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. 12Z
GFS IS BACK TO SHOWING ARRIVAL ON FRIDAY WHILE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. KEPT MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT
INLAND FROM GREAT LAKES WHEN THERE IS AT LEAST SOME AGREEMENT THAT
IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT. IF COLDER GFS WOULD VERIFY
FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...APPEARS THAT SUB H85 LAYER IS STILL TOO
WARM ENOUGH WITH WBZERO ABOVE 1KFT TO SUPPORT ADDING ANY RAIN/SNOW
MIX ATTM. TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50
DEGREES IN THE AFTN ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. LOW-MID 40S WILL BE COMMON
NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
TROUGHING ALOFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST BY NEXT SUNDAY TO END PRECIP
CHANCES AND RESULT IN SLIGHT WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THRU THIS EVNG AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES WITH CONTINUED RELATIVELY DRY SW FLOW ARND HI PRES IN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. STRENGTHENING LLJ TNGT AHEAD OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT
IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING/RADIATION INVRN WL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF LLWS. THERE ARE HINTS SOME LO CLDS MAY DVLP AS WELL...BUT
DRYNESS OF UPSTREAM AIRMASS SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL IS RATHER LO. SO
JUST ADDED SOME SCT LO CLDS AT THE TERMINALS FOR NOW. THE LLWS AND
LO CLD THREAT WL END EARLY ON MON BEHIND THE COLD FROPA...BUT SOME
GUSTY WINDS WL DVLP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WITH DRY AIR AT LEAST
INITIALLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE
THRU 12/18Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE W LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MON FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SINCE THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER LAKES LATE MON/MON NIGHT...
HAVE TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF THE GALE WARNINGS ISSUED
EARLIER. SINCE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ENHANCE
THE WSW WIND BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TO AT LEAST NEAR GALE
FORCE...ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE TIMING WERE
MADE FOR THAT AREA. SINCE THE PROGRESSION TO THE E OF THE SHARPER
PRES GRADIENT/STRONGER NW WINDS HAS SLOWED...EXTENDED THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRATION TIMES FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL WEAKER GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HI PRES RIDGE ARRIVES W-E ON TUE. WEAKER
W TO NW WINDS UNDER 25 KTS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU WED. A PAIR OF
LO PRES TROUGHS WILL PASS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT RIGHT NOW THE PRES
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TROUGHS LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO HOLD
WINDS UNDER 25 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-
003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ248-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ246-247.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT /4 AM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
410 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A GENERAL
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA ON THE NRN FLANK OF
UPR RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE PLAINS. AT
THE LLVLS...PERSISTENT WSW FLOW BTWN HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND
AREA OF LO PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA IS ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND DRY AIRMASS/AREA OF H85 TEMPS AOA 20C OVER MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL
CONUS INTO THE UPR LKS. THE COMBINATION OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND THE UNSEASONABLE H85
WARMTH IS RESULTING IN SOME RECORD/NEAR RECORD TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 70S AND EVEN THE 80S THIS AFTN AWAY FM LK MI MODERATION.
LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A POTENT SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW IS MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...RESULTING IN 12HR H5 HGT FALLS
UP TO 150M AND SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40-50 KTS OVER MONTANA.
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON FCST SURGE OF LLVL MSTR
SHOWN BY SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS INTO THE UPR LKS TNGT AHEAD OF
COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV TO THE W AND THEN POPS/WINDS ON MON
AS POTENT SHRTWV NOW APRCHG THE NRN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPR LKS.
TNGT...THIS EVNG WL BE MOCLR WITH WARM AND DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING.
BUT OVERNGT AS UPR SHRTWV MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND INTO
NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z...ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT IS FCST
TO SWING THRU THE WRN CWA AND REACH THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 12Z.
DESPITE 12HR H5 HGT FALLS FCST UP 150-200M AND A BAND OF DPVA/H85-5
QVECTOR CNVGC...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE FROPA WL BE A DRY ONE
GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MSTR INFLOW. BUT SEVERAL OF THE SHORTER TERM
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM...INDICATE STRENGTHENING LLVL SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WL ADVECT MORE LLVL MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS AND
BRING SOME LO CLDS. CONSIDERING THE WARMTH/DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS AND
STEADY WINDS THAT WOULD RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL/INCRS IN NEAR
SFC RH...FAVOR THE DRIER MODEL SCENARIOS THAT SHOW LOWER NEAR SFC
RH/LESS IN THE WAY OF LO CLDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...W WINDS
COULD GUST AS HI AS 25 TO 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH INCRSG CAA/
INSTABILITY.
MON...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE SHRTWV AS A
SECOND JET STREAK CORE DIGS INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY AND
AMPLIFIES THE ACCOMPANYING UPR TROFFING. THIS JET CORE ALSO HAS
RESULTED IN A SHARPER TRAILING SECOND SFC COLD FNT IN MN...WITH THE
RESULT A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER SFC WINDS OVER UPR MI UNTIL
THAT SECOND FNT/TROF PASSES LATE ON MON OR EVEN MON EVNG. SINCE THE
LLVL WINDS WL BE WEAKER AND MORE BACKED TO THE SW AND H85 TEMPS DO
NOT FALL AS QUICKLY WITH A HINT OF AN H85 THERMAL RDG AHEAD OF THE
SECOND FNT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY...WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LESS
EXPOSED KEWEENAW WL BE WEAKER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTN. FOR THIS REASON...DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVY FOR
THAT AREA UNTIL 00Z TUE. DRY SLOTTING FOLLOWING THE MRNG COLD FROPA
WL GRDLY GIVE WAY TO MORE CLDS AS AREA OF HIER RH WITHIN DEEP CYC
FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF CLOSED LO TRACKING THRU ONTARIO OVERSPREADS
THE AREA. HI CHC/LIKELY POPS WL RETURN OVER THE W DURING THE AFTN
WITH THE CORE OF THE DEEPER MSTR IN ADVANCE OF THE TRAILING SECOND
COLD FNT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE MUCH LOWER THAN TDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKWASH MSTR/CLDS WL ARRIVE EARLIER FOLLOWING
THE DRY SLOTTING...MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S WL STILL BE ABV NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
...STRONGEST WINDS DELAYED BUT STILL WINDY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVING ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS
PROGRESSIVE ATTM...BUT SYSTEM SLOWS CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS STRONGER JET STREAK AT H25 DIGS FM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAJORITY OF MODELS
HAVE LATCHED ON TO THIS MUCH SLOWER TREND WHICH DELAYS STRONGEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RESULTING ONSET OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
NEAR LK SUPERIOR UNTIL MONDAY EVENING AT THE EARLIEST. NO REAL
CHANGE TO EXPECTED STRENGTH OF WINDS...JUST THE TIMING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 3-8C /LOWEST WEST/ AT 21Z ON
MONDAY DOWN TO -2C TO 3C /LOWEST EAST/ AT 21Z ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
WINDS OF 35-45 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN GALES OVER LK
SUPERIOR AND WINDS NEARING ADVISORY LEVEL AT SHORELINE AREAS OF
KEWEENAW AND EVENTUALLY OVER ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES. STRONGEST
WINDS ON KEWEENAW WOULD BE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE EAST CWA WOULD NOT SEE STRONGER WINDS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT LASTING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
COORD WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER TO DELAY START OF WIND ADVISORY
ON KEWEENAW 00Z TUE THROUGH 12Z TUE.
GIVEN SLOWER TREND WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LINGERED HIGHER POPS
LONGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS STILL FEATURED OVER EAST
CWA ALONG TRACK OF SMALLER SHORTWAVE CROSSING LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO
JUST AHEAD OF SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE
IN THE EVENING. HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST INTERIOR SHOULD ALSO SEE THE
MOST SHOWERS AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS WITH NNW WINDS PROVIDING
UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THERE IS SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY AS
DELTA T/S ARE OVER 8C. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMES MUCH
SHALLOWER BY 12Z SO IT WILL TURN INTO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
SETUP. H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C OR AS LOW AS -2C WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN LEFTOVER CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH
IN WAY OF RAIN. MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE FINISHED UP BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. THERMAL TROUGH STILL IN THE AREA AND
WINDS COMING OFF LK SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY IN
THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE LOW-MID 50S SCNTRL.
REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMINATED BY SERIES OF TROUGHS DROPPING ACROSS
UPPER GREAT LAKES WED INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS TROUGH ALOFT PERSISTS
DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. LEAD SHORTWAVE AND
SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST FORCING AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN. SOUNDINGS
SHOWED FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE
SHOWERY. TEMPS MAY BOUNCE BACK SOME COMPARED TO THE TUE CHILL...BUT
READINGS IN THE AFTN COULD FALL A FEW DEGREES NEAR LK SUPERIOR ONCE
WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE. SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER THROUGH THU IN
STEADY NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THU PM INTO
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES. COLD AIR MORE ROBUST IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. 12Z
GFS IS BACK TO SHOWING ARRIVAL ON FRIDAY WHILE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. KEPT MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT
INLAND FROM GREAT LAKES WHEN THERE IS AT LEAST SOME AGREEMENT THAT
IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT. IF COLDER GFS WOULD VERIFY
FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...APPEARS THAT SUB H85 LAYER IS STILL TOO
WARM ENOUGH WITH WBZERO ABOVE 1KFT TO SUPPORT ADDING ANY RAIN/SNOW
MIX ATTM. TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50
DEGREES IN THE AFTN ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. LOW-MID 40S WILL BE COMMON
NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
TROUGHING ALOFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST BY NEXT SUNDAY TO END PRECIP
CHANCES AND RESULT IN SLIGHT WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THRU THIS EVNG AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES WITH CONTINUED RELATIVELY DRY SW FLOW ARND HI PRES IN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. STRENGTHENING LLJ TNGT AHEAD OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT
IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING/RADIATION INVRN WL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF LLWS. THERE ARE HINTS SOME LO CLDS MAY DVLP AS WELL...BUT
DRYNESS OF UPSTREAM AIRMASS SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL IS RATHER LO. SO
JUST ADDED SOME SCT LO CLDS AT THE TERMINALS FOR NOW. THE LLWS AND
LO CLD THREAT WL END EARLY ON MON BEHIND THE COLD FROPA...BUT SOME
GUSTY WINDS WL DVLP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WITH DRY AIR AT LEAST
INITIALLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE
THRU 12/18Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE W LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MON FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SINCE THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER LAKES LATE MON/MON NIGHT...
HAVE TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF THE GALE WARNINGS ISSUED
EARLIER. SINCE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ENHANCE
THE WSW WIND BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TO AT LEAST NEAR GALE
FORCE...ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE TIMING WERE
MADE FOR THAT AREA. SINCE THE PROGRESSION TO THE E OF THE SHARPER
PRES GRADIENT/STRONGER NW WINDS HAS SLOWED...EXTENDED THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRATION TIMES FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL WEAKER GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HI PRES RIDGE ARRIVES W-E ON TUE. WEAKER
W TO NW WINDS UNDER 25 KTS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU WED. A PAIR OF
LO PRES TROUGHS WILL PASS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT RIGHT NOW THE PRES
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TROUGHS LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO HOLD
WINDS UNDER 25 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-
003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ265.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ246>248-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ249>251.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT /4 AM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
117 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOME
TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...THERE IS A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BTWN SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM THE OH
RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LO PRES CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA.
DESPITE STRONG WINDS UNDER THIS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NOT FAR ABOVE
THE SFC AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB...WHERE SW WINDS WERE AS HI AS
50 KTS AT 3K FT AGL...SHARP WAA IN THIS FLOW THAT IS FCST TO INCRS
H85 TEMPS ABOUT 10C THRU THE DAY BUT RELATIVELY SLOW NEAR SFC
WARMING LIMITED BY LOWERING SUN ANGLE AND INFLUX OF HI CLDS HAVE
KEPT LLVL STABILITY RELATIVELY HI AND LIMITED DEEP MIXING/SFC WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF HI CLD
SPILLING INTO THE AREA...VERY DRY AIR BTWN H85 AND ABOUT H5 AS SHOWN
ON THE UPSTREAM MPX AND GRB RAOBS HAS LIMITED THE COVERAGE OF ANY
LOWER CLD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WINDS AND TEMPS AS
RELATIVELY DRY SW FLOW WL PERSIST THRU SUN.
TNGT...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/RIBBON OF H925 SW WINDS UP TO 35-40 KTS
ARE FCST TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVNG BEFORE RELAXING OVERNGT AS SFC HI
PRES RDG TO THE SE SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. SO ANY
STRONGER WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG WHEN SFC TEMPS ARE HIER/
LLVL INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT GREATER WL DIMINISH THRU THE NGT WITH THE
SLACKENING GRADIENT/DIURNAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER WINDS WL
DIMINISH...SUSPECT THE SW FLOW WL REMAIN STEADY ENUF IN THE WARM
SECTOR TO LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING DESPITE A FORECAST GRADUAL DECREASE
IN HI LVL RH/HI CLDS. SO ALTHOUGH THE COOLER SPOTS WL SEE TEMPS DIP
INTO THE UPR 40S...READINGS WL HOLD IN THE 50S AT MANY PLACES.
EXPECT THE HIEST MIN TEMPS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
SUN...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIRMASS UNDER INCOMING UPR RDG
AXIS...EXPECT A MOSUNNY DAY WITH PERSISTENT LLVL SW FLOW. H85 TEMPS
ARE FCST TO PEAK AOA 20C...WHICH WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS RISING WELL
INTO THE 70S AT MOST PLACES AWAY FM MODERATION OFF LK MI. THE
DOWNSLOPE WARM SPOTS OVER THE W MAY SEE THE MERCURY REACH AOA 80.
THE RECORD HI MAX TEMP FOR THE MARQUETTE NWS IS 77 TMRW. SOME NEW
DAILY RECORDS MAY BE ESTABLISHED. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO BE
MUCH WEAKER TMRW...SO WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE UNDER 20 MPH OR SO
DESPITE THE HIER SFC TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
...STRONG WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...
ATTN SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE ON DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC
LOW TRACKING ACROSS MANITOBA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW
SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING MID CLOUDS BUT LOW-LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. A VERY WARM NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AND
MAYBE STAYING ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE 50S...SO THAT PUTS A LITTLE PERSPECTIVE ON
THESE TEMPERATURES. WRAPPED UP TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR AND
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS ARE OVER 200M BY
TIME TROUGH CROSSES ON MONDAY. SFC LOW DOWN TO 980MB AT 12Z MONDAY
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR LIFTS EAST TO JAMES BAY BY 00Z TUESDAY. COLD
CONVEYOR/WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AT H85-H7 ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION /H85 TEMPS AT 12Z MONDAY +8C OVER WESTERN U.P. FALLING
TO 0C BY 21Z/ SHOULD SUPPORT BLOSSOMING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS
FROM THE WEST TO NCNTRL CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. BIGGER STORY APPEARS
TO BE WINDS THOUGH.
INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE SFC
LOW /14MB GRADIENT LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR/ WILL COINCIDE WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
RAPIDLY INCREASING 950MB-850MB WINDS...REACHING 40-45 KTS IN THOSE
LAYERS 21Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD
PORTION OF THOSE WINDS MIXING TO SFC DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
NW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. SHORELINE AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND OVER ALGER
AND LUCE COUNTIES LIKELY WILL NEED WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. DUE TO THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE
THINK STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND OVER THE CWA.
STRONGER WINDS INLAND WOULD BE MONDAY EVENING DURING PEAK OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION. WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER
MUCH OF EAST CWA WITH LESS INTERRUPTION OF WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW LIFTING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND WITH
WEAK SFC RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SERIES OF TROUGHS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE OVER FAR WESTERN CONUS.
WEAKER SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT BY THE END
OF THE WEEK THERE IS HINT OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH AND
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT TIMING OF
COLDEST AIR ARRIVING IS STILL IN DEBATE WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING AT
THIS POINT. GFS SHOWS H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -10C BY FRIDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS NOT AS COLD FRIDAY BUT DOES BRINGS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -8C BY
SATURDAY. WHETHER OR NOT FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE SEEN
WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLDEST AIR AND HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE
IS AROUND AS THIS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE
LEAST...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PROBABLY WILL SEE GRAUPEL IN THE
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AS WELL. DAYTIME TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL STAY IN THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS LOW TO MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. ONGOING LLWS WILL END
OVERNIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT/WINDS AT TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
WEAKEN. MAY SEE A RETURN OF LLWS THIS EVENING AS PRES GRADIENT/WINDS
ABOVE DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
STRONG SW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS UNDER A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
A DEPARTING HI PRES RIDGE TO THE SE AND FALLING PRES OVER SCENTRAL
CANADA WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. BUT AS THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
WEAKENS THRU THE NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS RELATIVELY
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN/SUN NIGHT AND BRING SW
WINDS UNDER 20 KTS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP LOW PRES THROUGH
THROUGH ONTARIO ON MON...STRONG W WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH MON NIGHT WHILE VEERING TO THE NW. SINCE COLDER AIR WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS...INCREASED MIXING WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD GALES THAT WILL REACH 40-45
KTS. OPTED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR MON INTO TUE MORNING TO COVER
THIS POTENTIAL. TRAILING HI PRES WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS FOR
TUE INTO WED. AFTER ANOTHER TROF PASSES ON WED...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS INTO THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ266-267.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ162-263.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ264.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
816 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SENT AN UPDATE TONIGHT MERELY TO ADJUST SKY COVER GRIDS BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS
USING THE LATEST HRRR MODEL BLENDED IN. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE VERY
QUIET. CURRENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NOW OVER SW
SASKATCHEWAN. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO FEATURE LARGELY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS HELPING TO DRIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MAY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE CWA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DIFFICULT TO SAY
WHETHER IT WILL PRODUCE MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY OR ANYTHING MORE THAN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT THIS TIME. MALIAWCO
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE MADE. MODELS TRYING TO WARM THINGS OVER
INHERITED FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM
AND COULD BE THE FIRST TIME A 32 OR LOWER WOULD OCCUR AT GLASGOW.
AREAS AWAY FROM FORT PECK LAKE WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 32. TFJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THAT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY...THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...THURSDAY
NIGHT COULD BRING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR LOWS. SOME
LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA INCLUDING GGW HAVE NOT HAD A LOW OF
32 DEGREES OR LESS SO FAR THIS FALL.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO MONTANA FOR SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM
THE PACIFIC SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE WITH A
WEAK WAVE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE RIDGE. EITHER
WAY... SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FORRESTER
&&
.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. OTHERWISE
GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CLOUDS: EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND SOME MID (8K FT AGL AND
ABOVE) CLOUDS TONIGHT.
VSBY: UNRESTRICTED.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT 10 KTS OR
LESS. TFJ
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
930 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTED THROUGH BILLINGS AROUND 7AM AND WILL
BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE MOVING
ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING GENERALLY 40 TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
WIND GUST SO FAR BEING 70 MPH AT THE BILLINGS AIRPORT SHORTLY
BEFORE 9AM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSFER DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CURRENT WIND HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD AND WILL
MAKE NO CHANGES TO THESE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE LIVINGSTON AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS
HAVE BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT SO THIS HIGHLIGHT MAY BE CANCELLED
EARLY BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING.
HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
HIGH WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA. COOLER WEATHER WILL ALSO RESULT.
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN IMPRESSIVE MIDDLE- AND
UPPER-LEVEL DRY SLOT SWEEPING ACROSS OREGON...AND THIS FEATURE IS
POISED TO CROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA TODAY. THIS SIGNATURE IS TIED TO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL PRODUCE STRONG DRYING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF WINDS ALOFT
TO THE GROUND TODAY. THERE ARE ALSO 5 MB/3 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES OBSERVED UPSTREAM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS OF 08 UTC...AND
THE 00 UTC MODEL SIMULATIONS ALL TAKE THOSE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS AND HARDIN THIS MORNING. THESE INGREDIENTS
ALL POINT TOWARD A HIGH WIND EVENT WHEREVER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
GROUND ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 60 MPH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. WE
POSTED HIGH WIND WARNINGS WHEREVER 00 UTC MODEL SOUNDINGS HAD 50+
KT WINDS WITHIN 3000 FT AGL OF THE GROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THUS...HIGH WIND WARNINGS GO EAST FROM BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON
TO BILLINGS...HARDIN...HYSHAM...MILES CITY...AND BAKER. BILLINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE AS THE 00 UTC MODEL
GUIDANCE AND MORE RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS ALL SHOW 50 TO 60 KT
WINDS WITHIN 2500 FT AGL OF THE GROUND BETWEEN 9 AM AND 1 PM MDT
TODAY...READILY SUPPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WARNING INTO
SOUTHERN BIG HORN...SOUTHERN ROSEBUD OR POWDER RIVER COUNTIES AS
PARTS OF THOSE AREAS WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES THIS MORNING...TOO.
THE LOWER-CONFIDENCE PART OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS ACTUALLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN MT...WHERE THE 00 UTC GFS IS STRONGER ALOFT WITH THE
WIND SPEEDS THAN THE 0THER 00 UTC MODELS OWING TO ITS DEEPER LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. THE PROBABILITY OF GUSTS
REACHING 60 MPH IN NORTHERN ROSEBUD...CUSTER...AND FALLON COUNTIES
WAS NONETHELESS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. THE
WARNING FOR THAT AREA WAS CARRIED THROUGH 06 UTC TONIGHT AS MODELS
SUGGEST A SECONDARY SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS AND PRESSURE RISES MAY
MOVE THROUGH THERE AFTER 00 UTC...WHILE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
STILL STEEP ENOUGH FOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE GROUND.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED TO
YIELD HUMIDITIES UNDER 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WE HAVE ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WHOLE AREA BELOW 6000 FT MSL. THERE IS
A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LARGE WIND-DRIVEN GRASS FIRES...AND THE RED
FLAG WARNING IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT NFDRS INDICES.
BY MONDAY...THE WEATHER WILL TAKE ON A MUCH MORE QUIET TONE...WITH
LINGERING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S F.
SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW IMPACT.
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE A FACTOR WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE COOLER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS IT IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOWARD EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND
THEREFORE WAS STRONGER WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA. WILL LEAVE FORECAST IN CHECK AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS
ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS FORECAST. OVERALL...MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION QUICKLY THIS MORNING...HAVING
CROSSED THROUGH KBIL...KMLS...AND KBHK...BUT NOT YET REACHED KSHR.
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH SOME LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
GUSTS OF 70 MPH HAVE OCCURRED IN KBIL...WITH 62 MPH REPORTED IN
COLUMBUS. 70 MPH GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN KBIL...BUT
WILL STAY STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT EASTWARD BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY TAPER
OFF ACROSS THE WEST. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 040/071 047/074 046/072 044/064 039/066 045/073
0/N 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B
LVM 067 037/073 043/073 043/074 040/067 038/068 042/073
2/W 00/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 071 039/072 043/075 044/073 042/066 039/068 043/074
0/N 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
MLS 070 041/069 043/071 043/070 042/063 038/064 043/071
0/N 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
4BQ 070 040/068 043/072 044/071 042/064 037/066 043/072
0/N 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
BHK 069 041/066 042/069 041/068 040/060 037/061 041/067
0/N 00/N 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 072 037/071 042/074 041/073 041/066 038/068 041/073
0/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 01/B 10/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 28>39-41-42-56>58-63.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 28>30-34-35-41-42-57-63.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 31>33.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW
6000 FEET FOR ZONES 40-64>68.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
244 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
HIGH WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA. COOLER WEATHER WILL ALSO RESULT.
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN IMPRESSIVE MIDDLE- AND
UPPER-LEVEL DRY SLOT SWEEPING ACROSS OREGON...AND THIS FEATURE IS
POISED TO CROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA TODAY. THIS SIGNATURE IS TIED TO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL PRODUCE STRONG DRYING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF WINDS ALOFT
TO THE GROUND TODAY. THERE ARE ALSO 5 MB/3 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES OBSERVED UPSTREAM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS OF 08 UTC...AND
THE 00 UTC MODEL SIMULATIONS ALL TAKE THOSE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS AND HARDIN THIS MORNING. THESE INGREDIENTS
ALL POINT TOWARD A HIGH WIND EVENT WHEREVER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
GROUND ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 60 MPH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. WE
POSTED HIGH WIND WARNINGS WHEREVER 00 UTC MODEL SOUNDINGS HAD 50+
KT WINDS WITHIN 3000 FT AGL OF THE GROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THUS...HIGH WIND WARNINGS GO EAST FROM BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON
TO BILLINGS...HARDIN...HYSHAM...MILES CITY...AND BAKER. BILLINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE AS THE 00 UTC MODEL
GUIDANCE AND MORE RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS ALL SHOW 50 TO 60 KT
WINDS WITHIN 2500 FT AGL OF THE GROUND BETWEEN 9 AM AND 1 PM MDT
TODAY...READILY SUPPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WARNING INTO
SOUTHERN BIG HORN...SOUTHERN ROSEBUD OR POWDER RIVER COUNTIES AS
PARTS OF THOSE AREAS WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES THIS MORNING...TOO.
THE LOWER-CONFIDENCE PART OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS ACTUALLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN MT...WHERE THE 00 UTC GFS IS STRONGER ALOFT WITH THE
WIND SPEEDS THAN THE 0THER 00 UTC MODELS OWING TO ITS DEEPER LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. THE PROBABILITY OF GUSTS
REACHING 60 MPH IN NORTHERN ROSEBUD...CUSTER...AND FALLON COUNTIES
WAS NONETHELESS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. THE
WARNING FOR THAT AREA WAS CARRIED THROUGH 06 UTC TONIGHT AS MODELS
SUGGEST A SECONDARY SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS AND PRESSURE RISES MAY
MOVE THROUGH THERE AFTER 00 UTC...WHILE LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
STILL STEEP ENOUGH FOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE GROUND.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED TO
YIELD HUMIDITIES UNDER 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WE HAVE ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WHOLE AREA BELOW 6000 FT MSL. THERE IS
A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LARGE WIND-DRIVEN GRASS FIRES...AND THE RED
FLAG WARNING IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT NFDRS INDICES.
BY MONDAY...THE WEATHER WILL TAKE ON A MUCH MORE QUIET TONE...WITH
LINGERING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S F.
SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW IMPACT.
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE A FACTOR WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE COOLER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS IT IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOWARD EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND
THEREFORE WAS STRONGER WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA. WILL LEAVE FORECAST IN CHECK AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS
ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS FORECAST. OVERALL...MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS
EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR KLVM EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO KBIL BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO KMLS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A
CONCERN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE CLIMB TOWARD 40 KTS. STRONGER WINDS WILL
PUSH TOWARD THE SURFACE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 040/071 047/074 046/072 044/064 039/066 045/073
0/N 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B
LVM 067 037/073 043/073 043/074 040/067 038/068 042/073
2/W 00/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 071 039/072 043/075 044/073 042/066 039/068 043/074
0/N 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
MLS 070 041/069 043/071 043/070 042/063 038/064 043/071
0/N 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
4BQ 070 040/068 043/072 044/071 042/064 037/066 043/072
0/N 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
BHK 069 041/066 042/069 041/068 040/060 037/061 041/067
0/N 00/N 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 072 037/071 042/074 041/073 041/066 038/068 041/073
0/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 01/B 10/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 28>39-41-42-56>58-63.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 28-63.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 29-30-34-35-41-42-57.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR ZONES 31>33.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING BELOW 6000 FEET FOR ZONES 40-64>68.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1136 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
A FAST MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS TAKEN HOLD WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PULL COOLER AIR FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD AND REPLACE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
RAPIDLY DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
A RED FLAG WARNING AND EXTENDED THE HOURS UNTIL 02Z MONDAY.
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY NEARLY SUPPORT RFW
CONDITIONS AS AREA RAWS STATIONS REPORTED RH AS LOW AS 16% WITH
20FT WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GIVEN THE FACT THAT SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER...DRIER...AND HAVE MORE WIND WE FELT IT WAS
NECESSARY TO GET THE WORD OUT NOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THE REGION WILL BE IN THE FINAL BREAKDOWN STAGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR LARGE
RANGE LAND FIRE GROWTH. NOT TO BE OVERLOOKED IS THE FACT THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL BARREL THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SOLID MID HAINES 6 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY OF THE THREE /LOW RH AND WIND...HAINES
6...COLD FRONT WITH WARM/DRY CONDITIONS/ ARE POSSIBLE LOCAL CRITERIA
FOR A RFW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE BIAS
CORRECTED MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TO MID
90S. THIS STRATEGY APPEARS TO BE WORKING THIS AFTERNOON AS HOURLY
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO THE OBSERVED READINGS. THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE WOULD HAVE TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE SFC TO GET CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE AND WE WILL SEE IF THAT
MATERIALIZES THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD BE
A FEW DEGREES TO WARM.
THE MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT USES THE SAME STRATEGY AS THE
MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST PRODUCING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT INCREASE SUNDAY AFTN TO 25 MPH.
GUSTS TO 35 MPH SEEM LIKELY ACROSS WRN NEB. THESE STRONGER WINDS
WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES WARM LATE IN THE AFTN AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THE GFS IS LEADING THE PACK WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING
IN FROM THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. THE MODEL IS
KNOWN FOR DEEP MIXING BUT APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING IT THIS AFTN. SO A
BLEND OF GFS AND OTHER MODELS WAS USED FOR THE DEW POINTS SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL GET IN RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS
WHICH RUN OUT TO 18 HRS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MORE ACCURATE FORECAST.
THE MODEL BLEND USED TODAY EFFECTIVELY NUDGES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND A RIDGE
ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A MOIST
TRAJECTORY INTO THE AREA. THUS...AS THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH THE
STATE SUNDAY EVENING...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES...
HOWEVER...WILL BE AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY. EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH LOWER MONDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...ALSO QUITE LOW. THEREFORE...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE 15 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST
SANDHILLS AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY OVER
EVEN MORE OF THE SANDHILLS AND IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. USING A
BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED STATISTICAL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM AND GFS...EVEN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...MILD DAYS AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED. THEN...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
WINDS WILL BE AN AVIATION CONCERN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER 17Z AND
BECOME 29018G28KT AFT 19Z AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 00Z WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
THE GFS IS LEADING THE PACK WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING
IN FROM THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. THE MODEL IS
KNOWN FOR DEEP MIXING BUT APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING IT THIS AFTN. SO A
BLEND OF GFS AND OTHER MODELS WAS USED FOR THE DEW POINTS SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL GET IN RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS
WHICH RUN OUT TO 18 HRS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MORE ACCURATE FORECAST.
THE MODEL BLEND USED TODAY EFFECTIVELY NUDGES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...COLE
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1254 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS SLIGHTLY DELAYED...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO GET SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED...AND RAISED MAX
TEMPS 1F-3F. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE WIND POTENTIAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
WIND HEADLINES ARE THE MAJOR CONCERN. THE SAME GENERAL IDEAS
REMAIN...STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS (WITH GUSTS NEAR
WARNING CRITERIA). THEN...WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
THE 12Z NAM IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE SFC LOW BY 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THE UPPER
WAVE IS EVOLVING WITHIN. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS HOW TO HANDLE THIS
EVENT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND DOUBLE BARREL NATURE (TWO PERIODS
OF WARNING POTENTIAL WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN).
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS INDICATING INCREASING 925MB WIND SPEEDS BY 00Z TO
AROUND 50-55 KNOTS AS IT DEVELOPS A 925MB CIRCULATION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. IT IS A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITHIN THAT THERMAL GRADIENT IS POSSIBLE. FOR THIS
REASON...THINK IT IS BEST TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH INTO THE
VALLEY FOR THIS EVENING AT LEAST. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS WATCH
INTO MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND AND POSSIBLE
WARNING CRITERIA MONDAY MORNING.
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AS CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED ENOUGH FOR STRONGER WINDS MONDAY MORNING IN THIS
LOCATION...IF NOT THIS AFTERNOON FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND WINDS THROUGH MONDAY ARE THE MAIN SHORT TERM
CONCERNS.
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS ON TAP AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH INTO THE N RRV/DEVILS LAKE BASIN BY MID DAY...AND EXIT
NW MN BY EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS
IS ALSO EXPECTED. RECORD HIGHS TODAY INCLUDE 81 AT NWS FGF...82
AT GFK AIRPORT...AND 85 AT FARGO. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL RRV INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...WITH A
TONGUE OF +23C 850 MB TEMPS OVER THIS AREA BY 18Z AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. IT CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE SOME SPOTS IN THE S RRV/WC MN
COULD TOUCH 9O.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WINDS WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTENSE UPPER WAVE THAT WILL DIG INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A STRONG SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH 850 MB WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...SHOULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY RRV WESTWARD. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER SE ND/WC MN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS/WARM TEMPS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT WINDS MAY DECREASE A BIT DURING THE
EVENING AFTER THE FIRST SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION...BEFORE A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
WAVE PASSES AND THE SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WITH 850 MB WINDS
INCREASING ABOVE 50 KTS...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS
WELL OVER 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE MAIN DOWNSIDE FOR HIGH
WINDS WOULD BE TIME OF DAY...BUT ASSUMING STRONG ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHER GUSTS LOOK PLAUSIBLE. STRONG WINDS...AT LEAST
INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...LIKELY WILL SPREAD INTO THE RRV AND
NW MN LATER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NOW WEST
OF THE RRV. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A POSSIBLE
PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH THE INITIAL COLD SURGE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.
OTHERWISE...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER WAVE MAINLY ACROSS NE ND AND NW MN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AROUND 30 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
AREAS REMAINING IN THE 40S...ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER LONGER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
WINDS WILL DECREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER RETURNING
INTO MID-WEEK UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REBOUND
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S IN MOST AREAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
CLOSER TO TYPICAL MID OCTOBER LEVELS. AREA WILL BE IN WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH
BUT MOISTURE IS SCANT AND ANY SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH OVER ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
FAIR SKIES AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CHANGE
RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT CAVOK CONDITIONS ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH BRISK
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AFT 21Z...MOVING
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY CORE BY 00Z. WIND SPEEDS COULD GUST INTO
THE 40-50KT RANGE BRIEFLY BEFORE SETTLING BACK. A SECOND SHOT WITH
LONGER DURATION HIGH WINDS AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE FA AFT 11Z...SHIFTING INTO
NORTHCENTRAL MN AFT 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION TO UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 20-
25 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-049-052-053.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY
FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.
MN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1041 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
WIND HEADLINES ARE THE MAJOR CONCERN. THE SAME GENERAL IDEAS
REMAIN...STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS (WITH GUSTS NEAR
WARNING CRITERIA). THEN...WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
THE 12Z NAM IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE SFC LOW BY 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THE UPPER
WAVE IS EVOLVING WITHIN. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS HOW TO HANDLE THIS
EVENT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND DOUBLE BARREL NATURE (TWO PERIODS
OF WARNING POTENTIAL WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN).
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS INDICATING INCREASING 925MB WIND SPEEDS BY 00Z TO
AROUND 50-55 KNOTS AS IT DEVELOPS A 925MB CIRCULATION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. IT IS A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITHIN THAT THERMAL GRADIENT IS POSSIBLE. FOR THIS
REASON...THINK IT IS BEST TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH INTO THE
VALLEY FOR THIS EVENING AT LEAST. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS WATCH
INTO MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND AND POSSIBLE
WARNING CRITERIA MONDAY MORNING.
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AS CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED ENOUGH FOR STRONGER WINDS MONDAY MORNING IN THIS
LOCATION...IF NOT THIS AFTERNOON FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND WINDS THROUGH MONDAY ARE THE MAIN SHORT TERM
CONCERNS.
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS ON TAP AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH INTO THE N RRV/DEVILS LAKE BASIN BY MID DAY...AND EXIT
NW MN BY EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS
IS ALSO EXPECTED. RECORD HIGHS TODAY INCLUDE 81 AT NWS FGF...82
AT GFK AIRPORT...AND 85 AT FARGO. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL RRV INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...WITH A
TONGUE OF +23C 850 MB TEMPS OVER THIS AREA BY 18Z AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. IT CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE SOME SPOTS IN THE S RRV/WC MN
COULD TOUCH 9O.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WINDS WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTENSE UPPER WAVE THAT WILL DIG INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A STRONG SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH 850 MB WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...SHOULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY RRV WESTWARD. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER SE ND/WC MN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS/WARM TEMPS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT WINDS MAY DECREASE A BIT DURING THE
EVENING AFTER THE FIRST SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION...BEFORE A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
WAVE PASSES AND THE SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WITH 850 MB WINDS
INCREASING ABOVE 50 KTS...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS
WELL OVER 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE MAIN DOWNSIDE FOR HIGH
WINDS WOULD BE TIME OF DAY...BUT ASSUMING STRONG ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHER GUSTS LOOK PLAUSIBLE. STRONG WINDS...AT LEAST
INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...LIKELY WILL SPREAD INTO THE RRV AND
NW MN LATER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NOW WEST
OF THE RRV. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A POSSIBLE
PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH THE INITIAL COLD SURGE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.
OTHERWISE...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER WAVE MAINLY ACROSS NE ND AND NW MN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AROUND 30 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
AREAS REMAINING IN THE 40S...ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER LONGER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
WINDS WILL DECREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER RETURNING
INTO MID-WEEK UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REBOUND
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S IN MOST AREAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
CLOSER TO TYPICAL MID OCTOBER LEVELS. AREA WILL BE IN WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH
BUT MOISTURE IS SCANT AND ANY SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH OVER ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CURRENTLY IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REACH KDVL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...KGFK/KFAR
AROUND 21Z...AND KBJI BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KTS...AND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS RRV WESTWARD FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 05-06Z...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 40 KTS
POSSIBLE (HIGHEST WEST). A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS WILL
ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP
YET. WILL ALSO KEEP CEILINGS VFR...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR LOWER CEILINGS LATER SUN NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION TO UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 20-
25 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-049-052-053.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY
FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.
MN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
958 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE VALUES. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
ELONGATED MID/UPR LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO PIVOT
EAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. INITIAL S/W
EVIDENT ON WV IMGRY DIGGING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF THRU INDIANAWITH
ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY OVER THE UPR MS RIVER VLY TO DROP DOWN INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN AN AXIS OF MSTR CONVERGENCE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN INITIAL COLD FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING INTO WESTERN
OHIO. PCPN IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND INITIAL FRONT TO PUSH
THRU ILN/S FA BY 06Z. DRY SLOT TO WORK INTO THE FA AND STAY FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS SECOND S/W DROPS SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...SECONDARY FRONT AND ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OVER THE UPR MS VLY
WILL DROP INTO OHIO DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT
LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON DRAGGING
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT. A VERY THIN LINE OF SHOWERS CAN BE
FOUND ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE
ILLINOIS/ INDIANA BORDER. NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW
SHOWING A BIT OF CAPE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS ALSO A LITTLE BIT MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA. FORECAST PWATS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER
NEAR 1.45". SURFACE CONVERGENCE STILL LOOKS RATHER WEAK AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE ONLY WEST WINDS
EXIST BEHIND IT. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND VORTICITY
ADVECTION HAVE BUMPED UP POPS (ESP. ACROSS EASTERN ZONES). THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST CLEARING THE CWA
(AROUND 6 OR 8 AM) WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL STILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THOUGH WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW
LOCATED JUST EAST OF MICHIGAN.
RH FIELDS IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRATOCUMULUS AND
CU MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW AND
ANOTHER WEDGE OF PVA MOVING OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO
BELOW 0.5" SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. THANKS TO THE
FORECASTED CLOUDS TUESDAY HAVE KEPT TREND OF LOWER MAX TEMPS.
WINDS COULD AGAIN BE BREEZY TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST TUESDAY EVENING
PUTTING ILN ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 850 TEMPS
REMAIN NEAR 4 DEGREES C THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TOWARDS THE NORTH AND MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAKING
FOR A COOL THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS IT DOES SOME WAA WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
PUSH UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS. IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAA...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ONLY IN THE 50S. FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO OVERHEAD BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROF TO PIVOT EAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT/TUESDAY.
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACRS EASTERN INDIANA TO SWEEP
EAST THRU THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MARGINAL INSTBY AXIS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THUNDER AT
KCVG/KLUK/KILN SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE INSTBY IS MORE FAVORABLE.
A WIND GUST TO 30 KTS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT WITH SW WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF
HOURS AT MOST AND FALL FROM A VFR CIG BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET.
EXPECT A DRY SLOT TO OFFER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF TO PUSH IN LATE
TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. EXPECT VFR CIGS AROUND
4000 FEET FROM THESE CLOUDS. REGARDING FOG AT KLUK...HAVE OPTED TO
OMIT ANY MENTION DUE TO WINDS AND COUNTING ON CLOUDS MOVING BACK
IN LATE. IF CLOUDS ARE DELAYED AND DECOUPLING OCCURS IN THIS
VALLEY LOCATION THEN SOME FOG WILL OCCUR.
IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 27 KTS ON
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
911 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... FIRST COLD FRONT WITH DRIER AIR NOW
NEAR INTERSTATE 75 WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH NEAR MFD. THREAT FOR SHRA
WILL END WITH FROPA AS IT WORKS EAST ACROSS THE CWA THRU THE NIGHT.
INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WAS PROGGED BY THE HRRR AND RAP TO
INCREASE REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE PRECIP GETTING TO THE GROUND.
HRRR AND RAP NOW SHOWING MUCH LESS PRECIP AFTER REINITIALIZING WITH
THE LATEST RADAR INPUT. WILL BACK OFF POPS SOME EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTH/SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... COLD ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS. HIGHS
WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE. THERE IS
A LITTLE BIT OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE LAND
AND WESTERLY FLOW ON THE LAKE. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 1C
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SO EXPECT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. DID START TO
INCREASE POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS WITH DEEP
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST. AS A WHOLE THE TROUGHING WILL LEND
ITSELF TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...GENERAL CLOUDINESS...AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE SNOWBELT.
THE FIRST WAVE OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO MID AND UPPER 30S AS
H850 TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 0C. WE COULD GET COOLER DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION TO STABILIZE TEMPERATURES SOME. THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO SATURDAY AS THE O DEG C H850
ISOTHERM MIGRATES SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS COOLING
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. DEW
POINTS WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TOO AND MOST AREAS OUTSIDE
THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR. RIGHT NOW LOWS HAVE BEEN
PROGGED A DEG OR TWO COOLER YET...CLOSER TO FREEZING. IF NOT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN DEFINITELY SATURDAY NIGHT...FROST WILL FORM. FREEZES
ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN SOME OF THE COOLER SPOTS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GET GOING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THOUGH WITH VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS...RESTRICTED THE COVERAGE TO
THE AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AND GUSTY
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOT
GENERATING MUCH RAIN AHEAD OF IT DUE TO DRY AIR AS NOTED BY THE DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S OR LOW 50S...THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY RAIN
IMPACTING A TERMINAL IS LOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE IS AT THE EASTERN
TAF SITES OF YNG AND ERI. THE FRONT LOOKS TO PROGRESS EAST FROM
TOL/FDY AROUND 01Z TO CLE AT 04Z TO YNG/ERI BY 08Z. WITH WEST WINDS
AT DAYBREAK TOMORROW CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY NE OH AND NW PA WED THRU FRI.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDY TODAY. WINDIER TOMORROW. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH OF WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM THE ISLANDS EAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY
NIGHT THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE WIND BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KUBINA/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...MAYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
729 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING A
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE VALUES. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON DRAGGING
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT. A VERY THIN LINE OF SHOWERS CAN BE
FOUND ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE
ILLINOIS/ INDIANA BORDER. NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW
SHOWING A BIT OF CAPE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS ALSO A LITTLE BIT MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA. FORECAST PWATS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER
NEAR 1.45". SURFACE CONVERGENCE STILL LOOKS RATHER WEAK AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE ONLY WEST WINDS
EXIST BEHIND IT. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND VORTICITY
ADVECTION HAVE BUMPED UP POPS (ESP. ACROSS EASTERN ZONES). THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /2 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST CLEARING THE CWA
(AROUND 6 OR 8 AM) WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL STILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THOUGH WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW
LOCATED JUST EAST OF MICHIGAN.
RH FIELDS IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRATOCUMULUS AND
CU MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW AND
ANOTHER WEDGE OF PVA MOVING OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO
BELOW 0.5" SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. THANKS TO THE
FORECASTED CLOUDS TUESDAY HAVE KEPT TREND OF LOWER MAX TEMPS.
WINDS COULD AGAIN BE BREEZY TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST TUESDAY EVENING
PUTTING ILN ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 850 TEMPS
REMAIN NEAR 4 DEGREES C THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TOWARDS THE NORTH AND MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAKING
FOR A COOL THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS IT DOES SOME WAA WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
PUSH UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS. IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAA...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ONLY IN THE 50S. FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO OVERHEAD BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROF TO PIVOT EAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT/TUESDAY.
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACRS EASTERN INDIANA TO SWEEP
EAST THRU THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MARGINAL INSTBY AXIS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED THUNDER AT
KCVG/KLUK/KILN SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE INSTBY IS MORE FAVORABLE.
A WIND GUST TO 30 KTS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT WITH SW WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE WEST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE OF
HOURS AT MOST AND FALL FROM A VFR CIG BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET.
EXPECT A DRY SLOT TO OFFER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A PERIOD
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF TO PUSH IN LATE
TONIGHT AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. EXPECT VFR CIGS AROUND
4000 FEET FROM THESE CLOUDS. REGARDING FOG AT KLUK...HAVE OPTED TO
OMIT ANY MENTION DUE TO WINDS AND COUNTING ON CLOUDS MOVING BACK
IN LATE. IF CLOUDS ARE DELAYED AND DECOUPLING OCCURS IN THIS
VALLEY LOCATION THEN SOME FOG WILL OCCUR.
IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 27 KTS ON
TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGING STRONG/GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY SHOWS JUST TAPPING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
IN A SMALL PART OF SW OK AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE ALREADY
SHOWING ON THE OK MESONET. THE FACTOR TO WATCH WILL BE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE IS QUITE MOIST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE,
BUT MIXING WILL BRING THE RH DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
MENTIONED AREAS...JUST SOME PARTS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 20. GRIDS
WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER SCENARIO, OTHERWISE
LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE FOR TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 61 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 95 57 84 47 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 97 65 89 51 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 92 53 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 93 59 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 91 68 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ009-014>017-021>024-027-033>039-044-045.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ014-016-
021>023-033>038-044.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ033-036.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ083>086.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-
088.
&&
$$
09/25/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1047 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY SHOWS JUST TAPPING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
IN A SMALL PART OF SW OK AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE ALREADY
SHOWING ON THE OK MESONET. THE FACTOR TO WATCH WILL BE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE IS QUITE MOIST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE,
BUT MIXING WILL BRING THE RH DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
MENTIONED AREAS...JUST SOME PARTS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 20. GRIDS
WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER SCENARIO, OTHERWISE
LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE FOR TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 61 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 95 57 84 47 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 97 65 89 51 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 92 52 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 93 59 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 91 68 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ009-014>017-021>024-027-033>039-044-045.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ014-016-
021>023-033>038-044.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ033-036.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ083>086.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.
&&
$$
09/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION TIME
NWS NORMAN OK
1114 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MOST
TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATE TOMORROW MORNING
TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT FROM THE SSW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/
UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE THIS EVENING IS TO INCREASE CLOUDS AS WIDESPREAD
CIRRUS IS BEING OBSERVED MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM MISSOURI AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER NORTH WITH THIS CURRENT CIRRUS... BUT WILL
ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FARTHER SOUTH SOMEWHAT AS HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT MORE HIGH CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE
BAND SEEN NOW. ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN A BIT QUICKER
THAN THE HOURLY GRIDS WOULD HAVE SUGGESTED... THE DECREASE IN
TEMPS MAY SLOW WITH THESE CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD SO HAVE ONLY
LOWERED MINS A DEGREE OR SO.
EARLIER THIS EVENING... ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS ON MONDAY AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE STATE FORESTRY
DEPARTMENT DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND THE
WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON... LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK ACROSS FAR SWRN OK/WRN N TX
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... CONDITIONS WILL STAY RATHER CALM AND
MILD... WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGH DAYBREAK. WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH NOON AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS DUE
TO THE APPROACHING SFC TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...
UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. NEAR RECORD
HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED AT SOME LOCATIONS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN OK
AND WRN N TX. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 96 FOR WICHITA FALLS IS ONE
DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD OF 97... WHICH OCCURRED IN 1979. COMBINED
WITH BREEZY... 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTS... THROUGH THE AFTN... FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... UPON THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST... SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW...
LIKELY BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NWRN OK... CONTINUING ACROSS
THE REST OF WEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH SUNRISE. BEHIND THE FRONT... A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS WRN OK. 3HR PRESSURE
CHANGES BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z WILL BE WITHIN 5 TO 7MB. BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER... WITH MEAN LAYER
WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING OF 35 TO 40 KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS AND GOOD CONTINUITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL GUIDANCE
RUNS... CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR STRONG WINDS... SUSTAINED 25 TO
30 AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH... OVER SEVERAL HOURS MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE... FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF WRN OK AND WRN N TX. IN
RELATION... GAVE THOUGHT TO A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH... HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET WHEN INCLUDING TEMPS AND RH. WITH THAT
SAID... GIVEN SUCH STRONG WINDS... FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED AS ANY FIRE COULD EASILY BECOME UNMANAGEABLE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL
KEEP THE SRN PLAINS IN A PATTERN OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK
FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY...
STALLING OUT AND WEAKENING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. LATE IN THE WEEK... AN ADDITIONAL
FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA... WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
JTK
FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY... WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF W/SW OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. FOR MONDAY... STRONG N/NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
MORNING... WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH GUSTS IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH... ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME
UNMANAGEABLE. PLEASE REMAIN MINDFUL OF WEATHER AND FUEL
CONDITIONS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 91 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 62 92 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 96 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 58 92 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 59 91 61 80 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 58 93 69 89 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ009-014>017-021>024-027-033>039-044-045.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ014-016-021>023-033>038-044.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ014-016-
021>023-033>038-044.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ083>086.
&&
$$
25/03/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1256 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
MVFR VSBYS FROM FOG ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH MODELS
SHOWING FURTHER DEGENERATION THROUGH THE NIGHT TO NEAR IFR AND
POSSIBLE LIFR FROM ALI-VCT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME
BY 15Z FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BECOMING 10-15
KT OUT OF THE S-SE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE WEATHER GRIDS A BIT TO INCREASE THE
EXPECTED FOG COVERAGE, WHICH MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES TONIGHT. THE
NARRE AND MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM
VICTORIA CROSSROADS DOWN TO KINGSVILLE FORMING SPREADING TOWARDS
THE WEST-NORTHWEST INLAND A BIT MORE. STILL UNSURE HOW WIDESPREAD
THE DENSE FOG, IF IT FORMS, WOULD BE SO WE INCLUDED IT IN THE HWO
FOR THE TIME BEING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATON CYCLE.
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES...RADIATIONAL FOG EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS BY 08-09Z SUNDAY. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE PREVALENT FROM ALICE
TO BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR AFTER 14Z
SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT RADIATION COOLING WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
FORMATION OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT STILL
EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER INLAND AREAS LATE. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. CONVERGENCE IN THE VCNTY OF THE BNDRY AND POOLING MSTR
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISO-SCT CONVECTION - ESPLY
DURING DAYTIME HEATING TUE. FRONT THEN LOOKS TO WASH OUT TUE NGT
INTO WED WITH DEEP RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF WARMER MEX AND COOLER HPC TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OR HIGHER EACH
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD - UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR MIDDLE OCTOBER TO BE
SURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 71 91 74 89 69 / 0 10 20 30 10
VICTORIA 68 90 70 89 63 / 0 10 20 20 10
LAREDO 72 95 73 92 69 / 0 10 10 20 10
ALICE 68 94 71 92 66 / 0 10 20 30 10
ROCKPORT 74 86 76 85 71 / 0 10 20 20 10
COTULLA 71 95 72 92 67 / 0 10 10 20 10
KINGSVILLE 69 93 73 91 67 / 0 10 20 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 74 86 77 85 73 / 0 10 20 30 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CB/85...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
133 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT
SOUTH TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO WEDGE SOUTH
ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BRINGING DRIER AIR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1140 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO SEVERAL GRIDS THIS HOUR. LOW CLOUDS PERSIST
ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND BLUE RIDGE AND ACCORDING TO MOST
MODELS...LIKELY WILL THROUGH ABOUT 13/14Z. AM NOT SEEING ANY MORE
REPORTS OF DRIZZLE...SO WILL DROP THAT. LIGHT RAIN PERSISTS NEAR
THE NC CWA BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE OF UPPER LOW
ACROSS SC/NC. HRRR HANGS ON TO THIS ACROSS THIS REGION UNTIL ABOUT
09Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FROM SOUTHERN WILKES ACROSS TO
SOUTHERN CASWELL UNTIL ABOUT 07Z. LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
AND ALLEGHANYS RESULTING IN DENSE FOG AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WHICH HAS TRIGGERED SEVERAL VDOT I-77 ALARMS DURING
THE EVENING. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THIS THROUGH 13Z. THE
CLOUDS ARE ALSO HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE NEW RIVER AND
GREENBRIER VALLEY. LOOPING THROUGH THE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
IMAGE...THERE IS NO CLEAR EROSION OF THE EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUDS...SO WILL HOLD IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AS BEFORE...WITH
SOME CLEARING NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE T/TD/POP/SKY/WX GRIDS THROUGH 14Z AS A
RESULT OF ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS.
AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MESOSCALE MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT NORTHWEST
EDGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHIELD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NC ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZONE OF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT BACK INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN MOST COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS ROUGHLY FROM YADKIN TO CASWELL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING
AS A RESULT...WHICH ALSO MATCHES UP BETTER WITH GSP/RAH POP GRIDS.
ELSEWHERE...SOME -DZ MAY CONTINUE FOR A WHILE ALONG THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS WELL...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE
ENDED FURTHER NORTH. CLOUD COVER IS A MORE COMPLEX ISSUE AS LEE SIDE
TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ALLEGHANYS. THIS IS DELAYING DISSIPATION OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA...AND WHERE CLOUDS DON`T PERSIST...FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.
AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY...
DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS REMAINS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE PINNED BETWEEN THE LOW AND DRIER AIR SURGING DOWN ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. ALSO SEEING RATHER WIDESPREAD -RA/DRIZZLE PERSIST ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE EASTERLY FLOW HAS AIDED UPSLOPE. THUS EXPECTING
LIGHT PRECIP/FOG TO LINGER SOUTHERN SECTIONS INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DRYING/CLEARING OVER THE FAR NORTH/NW PER LATEST VISIBLE
PICS.
UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO BRING AN END TO MOST PRECIP THIS EVENING IF NOT
SOONER. HOWEVER FLOW REMAINS WEAK AND MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE WEDGE UNTIL SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM SO EXODUS OF CLOUDS
REMAINS IFFY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE DRY ADVECTION WITH
BEST COLUMN DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN SEEN OUT EAST...AND LESS WEST
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER EASTERLY CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK
LEFTOVER INVERTED TROUGH. STILL THINK THE NAM MAY BE TOO SLOW SO
TRENDED WITH MORE CLEARING FROM NE TO SW A BIT SOONER...LEAVING ONLY
THE FAR SOUTH/SW STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK. SOME ADDED FOG AND
PERHAPS SPOTTY DRIZZLE TO LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH VALLEYS LIKELY TO SEE
MORE DENSE FOG IF CLEARING OCCURS QUICKER. LOW TEMPS ALSO DEPENDENT
UPON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING AS COULD SEE A FEW UPPER 30S DESPITE
MOISTURE NW VALLEYS IF SKIES CLEAR SOONER...WHILE THINKING 40S OVERALL
PER LATEST MAV MOS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES IN FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH BETTER SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SOUTHEAST UPPER
LOW...AIDING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS SOUTH. THIS
ALONG WITH LIGHT MIXING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 85H TEMPS SUPPORTS UNIFORM
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN WARMING OF DRY AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SATURDAY...
A PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH...THEN PROGRESSIVELY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. GFS INDICATING THAT WHILE THIS LOW IS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...IT WILL DRAW IN DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. ON THE OTHER HAND...ECM IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST...INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHICH WOULD BRING POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN BANDS IN THE PIEDMONT. FAVORING THE DRIER GFS
SOLUTION...WILL RAISE DEW POINTS AND CLOUDS IN THE EAST TO
COMPROMISE WITH ECM.
MORE MOISTURE WILL EDGE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD ON THE NEXT FRONT TRACKING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE GFS...MOISTURE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RECOVER
MUCH FOR THE FRONT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE PASSAGE SHOULD OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
NAM/ECM PLACING HIGH POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LIGHT RAIN (UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH). BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALL
MODELS HAVE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING...BREEZY
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE
RISES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ADVISORY WINDS...BUT IT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO START CLEARING FALL FOLIAGE FROM TREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S WEST TO UPPER
70S EAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL
UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TUESDAY WITH A BETTER DEFINED HIGH
OVER THE OZARKS AND LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OZARKS AND WILL EDGE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITION PREVAILING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER FRONT TO
PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS WITH MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY FRONT...THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE ECM. SINCE THIS IS
DAY 7...WE WILL KEEP POPS LOW WITH 30S ACROSS THE WEST AND 20S IN
THE EAST.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE WARMER ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE RAIN FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW NORMAL WITH POSSIBLE HIGHS IN THE 60S.
WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. COME NEXT WEEKEND...WE MAY BE ENTERTAINING THE IDEA OF
MORNING FROST AS 85H 0C LINE IS FORECASTED TO DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT SUNDAY...
LOOKING AT SOME CLEARING FROM LYH TO NORTH OF DAN AND EAST OF ROA
EARLY THIS MORNING. KEEPING CIGS/VSBYS ON THE LOW SIDE WITH LIFR
OR WORSE AT BCB/LWB/BLF/ROA...THOUGH THERE WILL BE TIMES
ESPECIALLY ROA/LWB WHERE MVFR WILL OCCUR. THINKING CLEARING MAY
REACH THE ROA AREA 8-10Z...ENOUGH TO SEND VSBYS TO IFR.
THE MODELS...MAINLY GFS/CMC CLEAR THINGS OUT FAST WHILE THE
NAM/SREF HOLD ONTO CLOUDS LONGER IN THE WEST TODAY. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE SLOWER CLEARING SOLUTION AND KEPT BLF/LWB/BCB IN THE
TANK FOR LIFR OR WORSE TIL 13-15Z.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY START TO MOVE IN SCATTERING OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS THOUGH MIXING STILL LOOKS WEAK...SO COULD BE A CASE WHERE
BLF/BCB COULD KEEP BKN MVFR/VFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WENT
TOWARD MORE OPTIMISTIC GIVEN EXTENT OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SFC PER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 17Z...THEN
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE LIMITED SUCH THAT THREAT OF SUB VFR IS MINIMAL. VFR
EXPECTED MIDWEEK BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/JM/RAB/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
612 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
THE WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SPEEDS ARE NO LONGER IN THE ADVISORY RANGE AND THEY WILL STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THE DIMINISHING TREND. AS A
RESULT...HAVE LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/MIXING
DESPITE CLOUDINESS BRINGING 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS TO THE SURFACE.
GENERALLY 25 TO 30 SUSTAINED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...LESS
EAST. WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MN AND NORTHEAST IA. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE STAYED JUST UNDER
CRITERIA...BUT SHOULD STAY WINDY/GUSTY THROUGH AT LEAST MID/LATE
EVENING - PER RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EXTENDING
THE ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING...BUT WITH CRITERIA MOSTLY BEING
MISSED RIGHT NOW...AND PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO SEE IF AN EXTENSION WOULD
BE WARRANTED. IF SO...PROBABLY ONLY TIL 9 PM. GRADIENT SLACKENS
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT BREEZY - BUT NOT AS WINDY - CONDITIONS
INTO TUESDAY.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WERE SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTHWEST WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST...EXITING BY EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH...MOSTLY NORTH OF I-94 CORRIDOR...THOUGH 8-
9 PM OR SO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
CONSENSUS IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS IS A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW A
LOFT....WITH THE VARIOUS RIPPLES IN THE FLOW EITHER NORTH OR
MOISTURE STARVED. ONE EXCEPTION IS A SHORTWAVE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THU. SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL SATURATION AND QG CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE...WITH A SLUG OF LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING LEADING IT IN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT...WITH THE HIGHER THREAT LIKELY
NORTH.
TEMPERATURES LOOK MOSTLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THU...BUT COLDER AIR IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA POST THE THU SYSTEM. NAEFS 850
MB TEMP ANOMALIES HOVER AROUND -1 FOR FRI/SAT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN
THE GFS/EC FROM -4 TO -6 C BY 12Z SAT MORNING. WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...SAT COULD BE A VERY CHILLY MORNING
FOR THE REGION. A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
CEILINGS CURRENTLY IN THE MVFR TO VFR RANGE BUT LOOKING UPSTREAM
OVER MINNESOTA...LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE. THESE
SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND THIS IS SHOWN BY
THE 12.18Z NAM WHICH INDICATES A LOWERING TREND IN THE CEILINGS.
WILL START KRST AT MVFR AND TAKE KLSE DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
EVENING. THESE CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS IN THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY SO NOT EXPECTING IT TO REACH THE AREA UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS CLEARING
SPREADING IN VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE
NAM WOULD SUGGEST IT HOLDS ON INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL TREND
TOWARD THE SLOWER CLEARING TREND AND SHOW THIS AT KRST VERY LATE
TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KLSE. THE
WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR BOTH
SITES. KLSE SHOULD LOOSE THE GUSTS EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
KRST SHOULD HOLD ONTO SOME THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1245 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
HIGH WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. INHERITED
HEADLINES LOOK GOOD AS DEER CREEK HAS SEEN CONSISTENT GUSTS AT OR
ABOVE 60 MPH SINCE 14Z. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD 55-65 KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BETWEEN RAWLINS
AND CHEYENNE...AS WELL AS DRY ADIABATIC SURFACE-650 MILLIBAR LAPSE
RATES. WHILE THE BEST DOWNWARD OMEGA APPEARS TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...A STRONG GJT-CYS PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND 10 MILLIBARS IS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS LOCALLY. WE JUST
HIT 50 KTS AT KCYS WITH THE INITIAL MIXING...AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEP MIXING WITH 50 KTS UPSTAIRS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AFTERNOON. WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXISTING TO THE WEST WITH
EVEN BETTER VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS...ADDED REMAINING AREAS FROM
CHEYENNE TO RAWLINS TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING. OPTED TO INCLUDE
NIOBRARA COUNTY AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WESTERN NE
PANHANDLE FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED
PACKAGE WILL BE SENT SHORTLY TO REFLECT CHANGES TO HAZARDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
WINDY AND DRY DAY AHEAD FOR THE REGION. WITH THE LLVL GRADIENT
INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY (850MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS AROUND 50)
...WIND GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH ARE BEING OBSERVED AT ARLINGTON. UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD
INCREASE IN WINDS LATER TODAY IS CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO. IT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO MONTANA AND THEN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS
EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR
TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. 700MB FLOW IS STILL PROGGED TO BE 50-55
KTS FROM NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY EASTWARD INTO CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES. SINCE THE FLOW ALOFT IS STRONGER ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND HIGH WIND WARNING TO
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (IN
PARTICULAR THE NORTHERN HALF)...HOWEVER THE MET GUIDANCE WAS QUITE
A BIT LOWER THAN THE MAV. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AND LET THE DAY
SHIFT MONITOR. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AFTER 00Z AS THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WENT ON THE DRY SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS AS THE
GOOD MIXING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TRANSPORT DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE
SFC. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE 14-18 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH RH IS ONLY MARGINALLY CRITICAL...THE STRONG WINDS THOUGH
THE AFTERNOON WOULD RESULT IN VERY FAST FIRE SPREAD IN THE CURED
GRASSES SHOULD WE GET A FIRE START. THUS...UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING AND EXTENDED IT TO ZONES 303 AND 308 TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.
MONDAY WILL SEE A DROP OF 15-20 DEGREES BEHIND THE FROPA. THERE
WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE MIN RH VALUES
WILL STILL FALL TO 15-20 PERCENT. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR CARBON COUNTY ON
MONDAY AFTN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH...BUT IT IS
STILL A MARGINAL EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A QUIET AND BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE OVER WYOMING AND THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN IS THE PLACEMENT OF A SHALLOW SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS
FEATURE AS THE GFS SHOWS THIS FRONT MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...GEM...AND ENSEMBLES. THEREFORE...DID NOT
LOWER TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGESTS AT THIS
TIME. REGARDLESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO LOWER INTO THE
60S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MODELS INDICATING THE JET STREAM REMAINING TOO FAR NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN AT THIS
TIME...WITH PERHAPS BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE ON TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RELATIVELY
LIGHT BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THEN GRADUALLY VEER INTO THE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW AN UNORGANIZED UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL THROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MAY ABSORB THIS ENERGY AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG
WEST COAST. INCREASED POP A BIT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR
DAYTIME RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WILL LIKELY SEE MODERATE TURBULENCE OVER THE
REGION AS WELL DUE TO MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL EASE
WINDS TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS SOME BLOWING
DUST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL REALLY INCREASE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 15-20 PERCENT. WITH GRASSES
COMPLETELY CURED...THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN EXTREMELY FAST
FIRE SPREAD SHOULD ANY FIRE START. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. AN
ELEVATED FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER CARBON COUNTY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301>303-
308>310.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101-102-
104>107-109-110-115>118.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
956 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
HIGH WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. INHERITED
HEADLINES LOOK GOOD AS DEER CREEK HAS SEEN CONSISTENT GUSTS AT OR
ABOVE 60 MPH SINCE 14Z. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD 55-65 KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BETWEEN RAWLINS
AND CHEYENNE...AS WELL AS DRY ADIABATIC SURFACE-650 MILLIBAR LAPSE
RATES. WHILE THE BEST DOWNWARD OMEGA APPEARS TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...A STRONG GJT-CYS PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND 10 MILLIBARS IS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS LOCALLY. WE JUST
HIT 50 KTS AT KCYS WITH THE INITIAL MIXING...AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEP MIXING WITH 50 KTS UPSTAIRS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AFTERNOON. WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXISTING TO THE WEST WITH
EVEN BETTER VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS...ADDED REMAINING AREAS FROM
CHEYENNE TO RAWLINS TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING. OPTED TO INCLUDE
NIOBRARA COUNTY AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WESTERN NE
PANHANDLE FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED
PACKAGE WILL BE SENT SHORTLY TO REFLECT CHANGES TO HAZARDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
WINDY AND DRY DAY AHEAD FOR THE REGION. WITH THE LLVL GRADIENT
INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY (850MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS AROUND 50)
...WIND GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH ARE BEING OBSERVED AT ARLINGTON. UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD
INCREASE IN WINDS LATER TODAY IS CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO. IT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO MONTANA AND THEN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS
EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR
TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. 700MB FLOW IS STILL PROGGED TO BE 50-55
KTS FROM NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY EASTWARD INTO CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES. SINCE THE FLOW ALOFT IS STRONGER ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND HIGH WIND WARNING TO
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (IN
PARTICULAR THE NORTHERN HALF)...HOWEVER THE MET GUIDANCE WAS QUITE
A BIT LOWER THAN THE MAV. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AND LET THE DAY
SHIFT MONITOR. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AFTER 00Z AS THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WENT ON THE DRY SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS AS THE
GOOD MIXING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TRANSPORT DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE
SFC. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE 14-18 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH RH IS ONLY MARGINALLY CRITICAL...THE STRONG WINDS THOUGH
THE AFTERNOON WOULD RESULT IN VERY FAST FIRE SPREAD IN THE CURED
GRASSES SHOULD WE GET A FIRE START. THUS...UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING AND EXTENDED IT TO ZONES 303 AND 308 TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.
MONDAY WILL SEE A DROP OF 15-20 DEGREES BEHIND THE FROPA. THERE
WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE MIN RH VALUES
WILL STILL FALL TO 15-20 PERCENT. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR CARBON COUNTY ON
MONDAY AFTN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH...BUT IT IS
STILL A MARGINAL EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A QUIET AND BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE OVER WYOMING AND THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN IS THE PLACEMENT OF A SHALLOW SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS
FEATURE AS THE GFS SHOWS THIS FRONT MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...GEM...AND ENSEMBLES. THEREFORE...DID NOT
LOWER TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGESTS AT THIS
TIME. REGARDLESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO LOWER INTO THE
60S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MODELS INDICATING THE JET STREAM REMAINING TOO FAR NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN AT THIS
TIME...WITH PERHAPS BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE ON TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RELATIVELY
LIGHT BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THEN GRADUALLY VEER INTO THE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW AN UNORGANIZED UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL THROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MAY ABSORB THIS ENERGY AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG
WEST COAST. INCREASED POP A BIT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR
DAYTIME RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AS A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY
MID MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KNOTS OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING...AND UP TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL REALLY INCREASE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 15-20 PERCENT. WITH GRASSES
COMPLETELY CURED...THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN EXTREMELY FAST
FIRE SPREAD SHOULD ANY FIRE START. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. AN
ELEVATED FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER CARBON COUNTY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301>303-
308>310.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101-102-
104>107-109-110-115>118.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
434 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK CONDITIONS
...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SRN ONTARIO. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER LOW HAS KEPT IT MILD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
A COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DELMARVA
REGION. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP THIS MORNING JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUE TO
IMPACT WRN NY THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION THIS MORNING.
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL SFC
TROUGH ARE TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LATEST LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF HRRR PRODUCT AND THE NAM IN TERMS OF THERE ARRIVAL IN THE
WFO ALY FCST AREA. THEY WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL 15Z-17Z WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN 17Z-19Z FROM THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS SLOWER TREND WITH HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WITH THE FIRST
FRONT. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF COLD
ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAIRLY STABLE WITH ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY...AND SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES MAINLY O TO +2C. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE COVERAGE DOES NOT
LOOK ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS/TEXT FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
SPC CONTINUES A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER MOST OF THE
REGION. THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TURNS
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER SW QUEBEC AND NRN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z WITH THE
BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS OVER THE NRN ZONES. HIGHER QPF TOTALS OF A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SRN DACKS. ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST.
H850 TEMPS OF +10C TO +12C THIS MORNING FALL TO +4C TO +8C BY THE
LATE PM AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY OR
MAIN COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO U60S ARE FORECASTED
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE OVER THE VALLEYS AND HILLS...WITH
SOME U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER SE
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SHOWERS PERSISTING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN GREEN
MTNS...THE WRN DACKS AND INTO THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS. MAINLY THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD BE DRY...AND IN THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
TRENDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE M40S TO AROUND 50F ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
SOME LOWER 40S IN THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.
WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GEFS HAVE BELOW NORMAL H500 HEIGHTS OVER NY
AND NEW ENGLAND WITH H850 TEMPS TRENDING TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE TAPPING SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU INTO THE WRN DACKS. IN THE COOL AND MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW...EXPECT INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WRN DACKS
IN NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF
SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE LAKE ONTARIO TEMPS ARE IN THE
MID TO U50S BASED ON THE GLERL SITE...AND WITH STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH H850 TEMPS TUMBLING TO 0C TO -2C A DECENT
LAKE RESPONSE IS EXPECTED WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BRISK AND
COOL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS AND NW CT...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE MTNS...AND
IN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.
WED NIGHT...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED...THE
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL KEEP MAINLY LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS
GOING WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THE BETTER PART OF THE
NIGHT. IN BUFKIT...THE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY IS WESTERLY THEN VEERS OR
SHIFTS A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM PROFILES
AT KSYR AND KRME. OUR HIGHEST POPS WERE INCLUDED OVER THE WRN
DACKS AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. A TRANSITION TO SOME WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS. FOR NOW...HAVE A COATING TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR SO IN A FEW SPOTS. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND WINDS
MAY KEEP TEMPS UP ENOUGH FOR NOT ALLOWING FROST FORMATION WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL GOING. TEMPS FLIRT WITH THE MID 30S IN
THE ERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON GOES
UNTIL OCT 15TH. OVERALL LOWS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER MANY
OF THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U20S TO U30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND
THE MID LEVEL FLOW SLIGHTLY FLATTENS...AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS SE ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY. A MORE POTENT
SHORT-WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO MID-OCT SEASONAL VALUES WITH M50S TO
L60S OVER THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO 50S OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BE GRADUALLY DEEPENING OVER THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS ROTATING THROUGH
THE REGION...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF CYCLONIC FLOW. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE
OVER THE REGION AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN THE FIRST FALL LIKE COLD AIR MASS TO
SETTLE INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
THE FIRST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPS GET TO FREEZING OR BELOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
NOW FOR SOME SPECIFICS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. POPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA (GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES IN VERMONT). 40 TO 50
PERCENT POPS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WILL STILL PRODUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS OF
20 TO 40 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT FALL LATER AT NIGHT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...LOWEST OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...DURING THIS PERIOD IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR THESE SHOWERS TO FALL AS SNOW MOST OF THE TIME. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID
30S TO THE 40S.
THE CENTER OF A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING
BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL BE
MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND AN END TO ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS ON MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AROUND NOON ON TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR FOG AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN 13/08Z AND
13/12Z THIS MORNING.
AFTER ABOUT 14Z...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE WITH A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE TAF SITES
AROUND 13/17Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND 13/18Z AT KPSF. ONCE THE
SHOWERS ARRIVE...THERE SHOULD BE A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO THE RAINFALL.
AFTER AROUND 13/23Z OR 14/00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
THE WIND WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KGFL/KPOU/KPSF
THROUGH AROUND 13Z/14Z...WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AT KALB OF UNDER
8 KTS. AFTER 14Z...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 6 TO 10 KTS...
WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KALB. AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND 23Z/00Z TUESDAY EVENING...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS
TO AROUND 15 KTS STILL POSSIBLE AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK CONDITIONS.
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 55 TO 75 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 50 TO 75 PERCENT.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. EXPECT WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ENDING SATURDAY.
TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A
TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE
TO A HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK
REGION.
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH DISTURBANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE MID WEEK. SOME
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE AT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MID OCTOBER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
427 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE TRI-
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MONITORING AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE S OF THE TWIN FORKS LIFTING
TO THE NE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 85+
KT 300 HPA JET STREAK...THIS JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS TO THE NE THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL LIGHTNING WITH THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWALTER INDICES OF 3 OR
LESS...AND LATEST RUC HAS THOSE VALUES STAYING OFFSHORE UNTIL
AFTER THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS. LOOKING FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM...IT APPEARS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRACK TO OUR
SOUTHEAST/NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SHOWALTER INDICES RETURN TO ABOVE
3 (THEY BASICALLY FALL BELOW 3 IN BETWEEN TWO ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION). SO WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS CONVECTION ON RADAR AND LATEST
HRRR...DO HAVE LIKELY POPS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN
NEW LONDON AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TWIN FORKS. DID NOT GO
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS...AS CONVECTION COULD STILL FALL APART AS IT
MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS...AND/OR COULD END UP TRACKING JUST TO
THE EAST.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODELS...WOULD EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION
OVER EASTERN ZONES TO COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AHEAD OF
700 AND 500 HPA SHORTWAVES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A VERY
LOW CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
LASTLY...STILL COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE
OF NYC AND ITS IMMEDIATE URBAN SURROUNDINGS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS DECREASING...BUT NOT YET TO THE POINT OF REMOVING FROM
THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POPS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS S CT AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH PASSAGE OF MAIN 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE...THEN SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE BASED ON A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND SHOULD BE
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
700-500 HPA LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...DRYING LOW LEVELS WILL SERVE TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TO MOST LIKELY AT MOST SPOTTY SPRINKLES.
HOWEVER...DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE NW QUADRANT OF THE CWA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE BASED ON A
BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND
MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST WHICH WILL IN TURN SEND SEVERAL COLD FRONTS
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL AID IN DEEPENING A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SEND A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE ON FRIDAY. MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WITH THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEFS/CMC. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
MUCH COOLER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING
AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL MOVE ACROSS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A BRIEF SHOWER
SATURDAY. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN -6C
AND -9C ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW AS MODELS CAN HAVE A SLIGHT COLD BIAS AT THIS
TIME RANGE. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE THESE
VALUES VERIFY WITH 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES NEAR 2 SD BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO AVERAGE AROUND 10
TO POSSIBLY 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. FORECAST HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S...AND ON SUNDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. SLIGHT MODERATION OCCURS ON MONDAY AS THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR MOVES EAST. THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS ALSO
LOOKING LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S. LOWS ELSEWHERE ARE FORECAST IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. SIMILAR VALUES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. A COLD
FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED VFR OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE MOVED IN
FROM A LOW PASSING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THINKING CONDITIONS WONT
CHANGE TOO MUCH...EXCEPT ACROSS KGON WHERE CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO
MVFR OR IFR.
ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z OR SO...HOWEVER
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR MVFR DURING THE REST OF THE DAY IN
ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS OVERALL WILL BE S-SW AT NEAR 10 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS
AND LESS ELSEWHERE. THE S-SW FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY TO 10-15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT. WINDS LOWER AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR ANY
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY FOR ANY FLIGHT
CATEGORY CHANGES.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. W/NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KT DURING THE DAY WED.
.FRI-FRI EVENING...LOW CHANCE OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.
.LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. NW WINDS...GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR
SHORE...WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY FALLING TO AROUND 1 NM OR MAYBE
EVEN LESS AT TIMES.
WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS OVER ALL WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT LIKELY...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOTING WAVEWATCH OFTEN IS TO FAST TO BRING IN
FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...HAVE OPTED TO DELAY ONSET OF 5
FT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS UNTIL TONIGHT. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON WIND GUSTS AND SEA HEIGHT...DID NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE
TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WITH
THIS ISSUANCE.
WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ON THE NON-
OCEAN ZONES AND TO UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES. WINDS INCREASE A TAD MORE WITH COLD ADVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. A PERSISTENT SE SWELL LIKELY
WILL BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT...WITH THESE
SEAS PERSISTING ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING 5 FT SEAS ON MAINLY THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SW FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ON MOST WATERS...EXCEPT MAYBE THE WESTERN
SOUND. OCEAN SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT. THESE SEAS
SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MAINLY THE OCEAN WATERS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL IS PROBABLE FROM INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH EXPECTED CWA WIDE...AND ALL BUT FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN 1/10TH OF AN INCH.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MALOIT/DS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
348 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE TRI-
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MONITORING AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE S OF THE TWIN FORKS LIFTING
TO THE NE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN 85+
KT 300 HPA JET STREAK...THIS JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS TO THE NE THIS MORNING. IN GENERAL LIGHTNING WITH THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWALTER INDICES OF 3 OR
LESS...AND LATEST RUC HAS THOSE VALUES STAYING OFFSHORE UNTIL
AFTER THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO PASS. LOOKING FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM...IT APPEARS ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRACK TO OUR
SOUTHEAST/NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SHOWALTER INDICES RETURN TO ABOVE
3 (THEY BASICALLY FALL BELOW 3 IN BETWEEN TWO ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION). SO WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
BASED ON THE TIMING OF THIS CONVECTION ON RADAR AND LATEST
HRRR...DO HAVE LIKELY POPS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR EASTERN
NEW LONDON AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TWIN FORKS. DID NOT GO
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS...AS CONVECTION COULD STILL FALL APART AS IT
MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS...AND/OR COULD END UP TRACKING JUST TO
THE EAST.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND MODELS...WOULD EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION
OVER EASTERN ZONES TO COME TO AN END BY MID MORNING. FOCUS THEN
TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AHEAD OF
700 AND 500 HPA SHORTWAVES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A VERY
LOW CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
FOR HIGHS TODAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIXTURE OF
MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
LASTLY...STILL COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING OUTSIDE
OF NYC AND ITS IMMEDIATE URBAN SURROUNDINGS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS DECREASING...BUT NOT YET TO THE POINT OF REMOVING FROM
THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
POPS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS S CT AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...WITH PASSAGE OF MAIN 700-500
HPA SHORTWAVE...THEN SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE BASED ON A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND SHOULD BE
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
700-500 HPA LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...DRYING LOW LEVELS WILL SERVE TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TO MOST LIKELY AT MOST SPOTTY SPRINKLES.
HOWEVER...DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE NW QUADRANT OF THE CWA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WERE BASED ON A
BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES...AND
MIXING DOWN FROM 875-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. HIGHS SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST WHICH WILL IN TURN SEND SEVERAL COLD FRONTS
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE CORE OF THE HIGH
PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL AID IN DEEPENING A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SEND A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE ON FRIDAY. MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WITH THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEFS/CMC. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
MUCH COOLER AIR FOLLOWS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING
AN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND ITS PASSAGE. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL MOVE ACROSS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A BRIEF SHOWER
SATURDAY. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN -6C
AND -9C ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW AS MODELS CAN HAVE A SLIGHT COLD BIAS AT THIS
TIME RANGE. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE THESE
VALUES VERIFY WITH 500 HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES NEAR 2 SD BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO AVERAGE AROUND 10
TO POSSIBLY 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. FORECAST HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S...AND ON SUNDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. SLIGHT MODERATION OCCURS ON MONDAY AS THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR MOVES EAST. THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS ALSO
LOOKING LIKELY TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS LOWS
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S. LOWS ELSEWHERE ARE FORECAST IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. SIMILAR VALUES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION NEAR KSWF. THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE EASTWARD.
VFR INITIALLY WILL TREND DOWN TO MVFR/IFR FOR TERMINALS AWAY FROM
THE CITY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FIRST AT KGON AND THEN
LOWER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM EAST TO
WEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY
MORNING BACK TO VFR BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR MVFR
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP.
THE WINDS OVERALL WILL BE S-SW AT NEAR 10 KT FOR CITY TERMINALS
AND LESS ELSEWHERE. THE S-SW FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY TO 10-15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT. WINDS LOWER AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AS WELL AS
TIMING OF MVFR/IFR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. W/NW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KT DURING THE DAY WED.
.FRI-FRI EVENING...LOW CHANCE OF MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS.
.LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. NW WINDS...GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR
SHORE...WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY FALLING TO AROUND 1 NM OR MAYBE
EVEN LESS AT TIMES.
WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS OVER ALL WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT LIKELY...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOTING WAVEWATCH OFTEN IS TO FAST TO BRING IN
FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...HAVE OPTED TO DELAY ONSET OF 5
FT SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS UNTIL TONIGHT. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON WIND GUSTS AND SEA HEIGHT...DID NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE
TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WITH
THIS ISSUANCE.
WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE ON THE NON-
OCEAN ZONES AND TO UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
ZONES. WINDS INCREASE A TAD MORE WITH COLD ADVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS. A PERSISTENT SE SWELL LIKELY
WILL BRING SEAS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT...WITH THESE
SEAS PERSISTING ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING 5 FT SEAS ON MAINLY THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SW FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ON MOST WATERS...EXCEPT MAYBE THE WESTERN
SOUND. OCEAN SEAS MAY ALSO BUILD TO BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FT. THESE SEAS
SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE ON MAINLY THE OCEAN WATERS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL IS PROBABLE FROM INTO THIS EVENING...WITH
LESS THAN 1/4 OF AN INCH EXPECTED CWA WIDE...AND ALL BUT FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN 1/10TH OF AN INCH.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DS
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC/JM
MARINE...MALOIT/DS
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
355 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SOUTH FLORIDA SITTING BENEATH THE
BASE OF A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS MAINTAINING A
DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT AMOUNTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT FROM LAST
EVENING`S 00Z MFL SOUNDING AT 1.52". FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE VERY LOW LEVELS AND A SLIGHT NUDGE UP OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PWAT INCREASING TO AROUND 1.6-1.7" BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SO WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELD, A SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT
TERM MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS. THE HRRR WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
EARLIER RUNS BUT HAS SINCE BACKED OFF ON MUCH DEVELOPMENT SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV GUIDANCE AND JUST GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM MAINTAINS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN NIL.
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS
SHOW A RETURN OF MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO EMERGE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES
NORTHWARD AND THE PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 2". THE NAM ALSO SHOWS THE
CAP ERODING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS FORESEEN ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENING SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, I CAN ALSO SEE THIS FORECAST TRENDING DOWN AS
TIME GOES ON AS THESE PATTERNS ARE NEVER HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE
MODELS AND SOMETIMES ARE WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE IN THE MOISTURE
RETURN.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...
ONLY SOME SUBTLE CHANGES ARE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LARGE
SCALE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM MOVING VERY FAR TO THE NORTH AND IN FACT SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT
COULD BE SHOVED BACK TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IS FORECAST TO
BE 1035MB WHICH WILL CAUSE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS WIND REMAINS BELOW 15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS AND THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 73 88 74 / 10 10 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 76 88 76 / 20 30 40 30
MIAMI 88 75 88 77 / 20 30 40 30
NAPLES 87 73 87 74 / 10 10 30 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....54/BNB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
149 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NW GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NW FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE FROM SE MONTANA ACROSS OUR CWA AND OVER
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...RFW WAS ISSUED EARLIER BASED
ON TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. AS EXPECTED
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS HOWEVER WITH STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (REFLECTED
ON AREA VAD WIND PROFILES AND RAP SOUNDINGS)...THERE SHOULD BE 3HR
OF RFW CRITERIA OVER EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
WAS WHETHER 3HR CRITERIA WOULD BE MET FURTHER WEST. WHILE IT IS
MARGINAL THERE IS STILL A SOLID WINDOW FOR RFW AT LEAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE WARNING.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE PATTERN
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH NW FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. DEEP DRY AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL DESPITE A FEW PASSING
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND LOW TD VALUES WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S DESPITE WAA ALOFT. LOW LYING VALLEYS AND
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY SEE ISOLATED FROST CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WITH UPPER
LOW TRANSITIONING EASTWARD RISING HEIGHTS/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY NOT
WARM UP QUITE AS MUCH...HOWEVER MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2015
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY AS WE WILL BE SITUATED
BETWEEN A WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A RELATIVELY POTENT TROUGH
TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE AND BECOME
WESTERLY ON SATURDAY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. A H5
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES LATE SUNDAY THEN
MOVE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS
POINT THE ECMWF BECOMES SLOWER WITH THE GFS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE SPEED AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LOW. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY EVENING MAINLY IN THE WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
BUT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER 40S
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
FR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH RIDGING
ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE BREEZY
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE NW GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NW FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE FROM SE MONTANA ACROSS OUR CWA AND OVER
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...RFW WAS ISSUED EARLIER BASED
ON TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. AS EXPECTED
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS HOWEVER WITH STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (REFLECTED
ON AREA VAD WIND PROFILES AND RAP SOUNDINGS)...THERE SHOULD BE 3HR
OF RFW CRITERIA OVER EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION
WAS WHETHER 3HR CRITERIA WOULD BE MET FURTHER WEST. WHILE IT IS
MARGINAL THERE IS STILL A SOLID WINDOW FOR RFW AT LEAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE WARNING.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE PATTERN
ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH NW FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. DEEP DRY AIR
MASS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL DESPITE A FEW PASSING
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND LOW TD VALUES WILL
MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S DESPITE WAA ALOFT. LOW LYING VALLEYS AND
SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY SEE ISOLATED FROST CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WITH UPPER
LOW TRANSITIONING EASTWARD RISING HEIGHTS/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY NOT
WARM UP QUITE AS MUCH...HOWEVER MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING FOR THE
MOST PART A PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA.
THE EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WERE SOME AMPLIFICATION
WAS TAKEN PLACE AND OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHERE A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT SYSTEM WERE LOCATED IN A MEAN TROUGH.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE
GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE. THE SREF WAS STARTED OUT BEST WITH THE SURFACE
WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO START OUT TOO COLD.
THE NAM...CANADIAN AND ECMWF WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE SO WOULD EXPECT A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR TEMPERATURES TOO COOL OFF...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN SECTIONS. SO LOWERED MINS ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. RETURN FLOW/RECYCLED COOL AIR IS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE PRETTY CLOSE WITH PLENTY OF
SUN EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR THE CLUSTERING OF THE
GUIDANCE BUT TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER ESPECIALLY MY EASTERN AREAS
WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH THE NEXT
FRONT NOT TOO FAR AWAY. SO MINS WILL BE TRICKY. WINDS ARE MUCH
LIGHTER IN THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF IT. TENDED TO GO WITH THE SLIGHTLY BELOW THE GUIDANCE.
THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THEY DIFFER ON TIMING/VALUES...MODELS DO SHOW
THE TEMPERATURES COOLING THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SO EARLY HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH STEADY OR FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TENDED TOWARD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SINCE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
THAT. STILL MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN A SPLITTING TROUGH STARTS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS IS FASTER/LOWER WITH HEIGHTS THAN THE
ECMWF. ENSEMBLES DIFFER ON THIS AS WELL. IN GENERAL THEY DO KEEP
THIS TROUGH AS AN OPEN WAVE AND A LITTLE FASTER.
IF THE FASTER SPEED DOES WORK OUT...TROUGH MAY BE APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...NOT SURE IF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY MUCH MOISTURE OR DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
WORK CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT/SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. FOR THE MOST
PART A DRY FORECAST IS STILL APPROPRIATE. HOWEVER...THE INIT GAVE ME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MY SOUTHERN PORTION SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE LOOKS
TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. AT THE SAME TIME
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SO
CONSIDERED THAT AND AFTER COLLABORATION...HAVE LEFT THAT IN.
THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A PRETTY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF SATURDAY WHEN A WARMUP STARTS.
CONSIDERING THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE
PLACE...BELIEVE THAT THE MINS THAT NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN WHAT
THE INIT GAVE. SO AFTER COLLABORATION DID LOWER THE MINS. WINDS DO
COME UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE EASTERN PORTION HAVING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT. SO AFTER COLLABORATION...DID
LOWER SLIGHTLY IN MY EASTERN/NORTHEAST LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME LOOKS GOOD AND PLAN ON
NO ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015
FR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH RIDGING
ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE BREEZY
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
317 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHRTWV
ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER MOVING TO THE E...BRINGING 00Z-12Z H5
HGT FALLS UP TO 240M AT INL. DESPITE THE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ATTENDANT COLD FNT MOVING THRU THE
ERN CWA EARLY THIS AFTN IS PCPN FREE DUE TO DRYNESS OF THE MID LVLS
SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB. SKIES HAVE TURNED MOSUNNY FOLLOWING THE
COLD FROPA UNDER DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...BUT AREA OF DEEPER
MSTR DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND ASSOCIATED SECOND COLD
FNT MOVING THRU MN ARE BRINGING MORE CLDS TO THE W HALF AS
WELL AS SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN LK SUP/NW WI. WSW WINDS HAVE
BEEN GUSTING AS HI AS 30 TO 35 MPH AT SOME PLACES IN WI/WRN UPR MI
THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SECOND COLD FNT...BUT STRONGER NW WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSVD BEHIND THE SECOND FNT IN WRN MN/THE NRN
PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINDS/NEED FOR WIND
ADVYS AS WELL AS LAKE ENHANCED POPS.
TNGT...SHRTWV MOVING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SLOWLY ESEWD OVER THE NE HALF OF LK SUP THIS EVNG. ALTHOUGH THE
SHARPER DYANMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WL SLIDE TO
THE N OF UPR MI...BACKWASH MSTR/SHARP CYC FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF
SFC LO AND ATTENDANT SECOND COLD FNT WL BRING SOME SHOWERS W-E LATE
THIS AFTN/EVNG. AS SHARPER CYC NNW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND H85
TEMPS SLOWLY COOL BEHIND THE FROPA...SCT TO NMRS LK ENHANCED SHOWERS
WL LINGER DOWNWIND OF LK SUP UNDER THE DEEP MSTR IN SPITE OF LARGER
SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV.
THE PRES GRADIENT/H925 WINDS SPEEDS ARE FCST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY WITH
TIME THRU THE NGT...SO WINDS OVER UPR MI WL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
50 MPH GUSTS OBSVD UPSTREAM. THE CAA BEHIND THE FROPA AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND THE FNT ARE ALSO FCST TO BE MODERATE...BUT
OPTED TO RETAIN GOING WIND ADVY FOR THE KEWEENAW GIVEN FAVORABLE
EXPOSURE AND APRCH OF PRES RISE CENTER/STRONGER ISALLOBARIC WIND
AIMED AT THAT AREA IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
TUE...SHARP PRES GRADIENT AND RIBBON OF STRONGER H925 NW WINDS UP
TO 35 KTS ARE FCST TO BE OVER UPR MI AT 12Z TUE. FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE TRAILING/WEAKENING PRES RISE CENTER BY 18Z...THE PRES
GRADIENT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH. CONSIDERED A WIND ADVY FOR THE MORE
EXPOSED ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES...BUT OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ATTM GIVEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES RISE CENTER/GRADIENT AND MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THIS
AREA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WL PERSIST THRU THE DAY...THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF PRES RISE CENTER AT 18Z.
UPR MI WL REMAIN UNDER H85 THERMAL TROF WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO
AS ABOUT -2C IN LLVL NW FLOW AHEAD OF HI PRES MOVING INTO MN...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLDS TO LINGER EVEN IF THE SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISHES
WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE/WEAKENING CYC FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. WITH THE CLDS AND H85 THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
TEMPS TO RISE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE DEGREES FM THE MRNG LOWS. TUE WL
FEEL MUCH MORE AUTUMNAL THAN RECENT DAYS EVEN IF THE WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH IN THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NEARBY WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH OF A SECOND SHORTWAVE
MOVING NEARBY THU...BUT NO MODELS SHOW ALL THAT MUCH PRECIP DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. GENERALLY...MODEL QPF SUGGESTS SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SECOND SHORTWAVE...WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST TO BRING IT IN (GFS 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF). THE GFS HAS SHOWN GREATER CONTINUITY WITH TIMING OF THE
COLDER AIR...SO WILL DESCRIBE WHAT IT SHOWS. BY 00Z FRI...850MB
TEMPS WILL BE -1C TO -3C WITH NW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -7C TO
-9C BY 12Z FRI AS WINDS TURN MORE NNW. THESE TEMPS STICK AROUND WITH
NNW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF FRI NIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE NW SAT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES NEARBY AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE A DEGREE OR
TWO...ALL WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SW OF THE CWA. THE HIGH
SHIFTS E LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO SHIFT ACROSS
THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP WILL START
THU EVENING EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES...AND CONTINUE
INTO SAT MORNING...ENHANCED WHEN SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND REDUCED
SOME BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES AS SHORTWAVE SFC RIDGING RESULTS. PRECIP
TYPE CHANGES FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W HALF THU NIGHT. PTYPE TURNS TO ALL SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL AND W FRI MORNING...WITH A MIX ELSEWHERE. PTYPE
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE FRI EVENING INTO SAT MORNING AS SFC
MIN TEMPS FALL BELOW TO WELL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS. PTYPE
THEN TURNS BACK TO A MIX LATE SAT MORNING...THEN MOSTLY SNOW AGAIN
SAT EVENING INTO SUN MORNING. COULD SEE SOME VERY MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
STRONG SW FLOW BRINGS WARMER CONDITIONS FOR SUN AND MON WITH A
CHANCE FOR RAIN MON OR MON NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES NEARBY. WHILE
STILL VERY UNCERTAIN...A FRONTAL MAY STALL OUT OVER OR NEAR THE CWA
MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT -SHRA AT TIMES THRU THE NIGHT...BUT THE SHRA WILL
DIMINISH W TO E TODAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS AND CYCLONIC FLOW
EASES. INCOMING PRES RISE MAX WILL AID GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL WHERE WINDS SHOULD GUST
TO 30KT OR SO. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTN AS PRES
GRADIENT SLACKENS. WITH THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA TODAY...MVFR CIGS
MAY HOLD ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE THIS
AFTN AT KIWD AND THEN THIS EVENING AT KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
EXPECT WIDESPREAD NW GALES TO 35 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE W HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER THE E HALF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT/ARRIVAL OF SHARPER PRES GRADIENT.
THESE GALES WILL THEN DIMINISH W-E ON TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A HI
PRES RDG/WEAKER GRADIENT. A TYPICAL FALL PATTERN WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH PASSAGE OF SEVERAL LO PRES TROUGHS.
SHIFTING WINDS WILL BE UP TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS AND SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WOULD BE
ON THU NIGHT-FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPER TROUGH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ240>247-263-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
119 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHRTWV
ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER MOVING TO THE E...BRINGING 00Z-12Z H5
HGT FALLS UP TO 240M AT INL. DESPITE THE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ATTENDANT COLD FNT MOVING THRU THE
ERN CWA EARLY THIS AFTN IS PCPN FREE DUE TO DRYNESS OF THE MID LVLS
SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB. SKIES HAVE TURNED MOSUNNY FOLLOWING THE
COLD FROPA UNDER DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...BUT AREA OF DEEPER
MSTR DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND ASSOCIATED SECOND COLD
FNT MOVING THRU MN ARE BRINGING MORE CLDS TO THE W HALF AS
WELL AS SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN LK SUP/NW WI. WSW WINDS HAVE
BEEN GUSTING AS HI AS 30 TO 35 MPH AT SOME PLACES IN WI/WRN UPR MI
THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SECOND COLD FNT...BUT STRONGER NW WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSVD BEHIND THE SECOND FNT IN WRN MN/THE NRN
PLAINS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINDS/NEED FOR WIND
ADVYS AS WELL AS LAKE ENHANCED POPS.
TNGT...SHRTWV MOVING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SLOWLY ESEWD OVER THE NE HALF OF LK SUP THIS EVNG. ALTHOUGH THE
SHARPER DYANMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WL SLIDE TO
THE N OF UPR MI...BACKWASH MSTR/SHARP CYC FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF
SFC LO AND ATTENDANT SECOND COLD FNT WL BRING SOME SHOWERS W-E LATE
THIS AFTN/EVNG. AS SHARPER CYC NNW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND H85
TEMPS SLOWLY COOL BEHIND THE FROPA...SCT TO NMRS LK ENHANCED SHOWERS
WL LINGER DOWNWIND OF LK SUP UNDER THE DEEP MSTR IN SPITE OF LARGER
SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV.
THE PRES GRADIENT/H925 WINDS SPEEDS ARE FCST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY WITH
TIME THRU THE NGT...SO WINDS OVER UPR MI WL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE
50 MPH GUSTS OBSVD UPSTREAM. THE CAA BEHIND THE FROPA AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND THE FNT ARE ALSO FCST TO BE MODERATE...BUT
OPTED TO RETAIN GOING WIND ADVY FOR THE KEWEENAW GIVEN FAVORABLE
EXPOSURE AND APRCH OF PRES RISE CENTER/STRONGER ISALLOBARIC WIND
AIMED AT THAT AREA IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
TUE...SHARP PRES GRADIENT AND RIBBON OF STRONGER H925 NW WINDS UP
TO 35 KTS ARE FCST TO BE OVER UPR MI AT 12Z TUE. FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE TRAILING/WEAKENING PRES RISE CENTER BY 18Z...THE PRES
GRADIENT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH. CONSIDERED A WIND ADVY FOR THE MORE
EXPOSED ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES...BUT OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ATTM GIVEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES RISE CENTER/GRADIENT AND MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THIS
AREA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WL PERSIST THRU THE DAY...THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF PRES RISE CENTER AT 18Z.
UPR MI WL REMAIN UNDER H85 THERMAL TROF WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO
AS ABOUT -2C IN LLVL NW FLOW AHEAD OF HI PRES MOVING INTO MN...SO
EXPECT LOTS OF CLDS TO LINGER EVEN IF THE SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISHES
WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE/WEAKENING CYC FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. WITH THE CLDS AND H85 THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
TEMPS TO RISE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE DEGREES FM THE MRNG LOWS. TUE WL
FEEL MUCH MORE AUTUMNAL THAN RECENT DAYS EVEN IF THE WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH IN THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD (TUESDAY
NIGHT)...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A POCKET OF 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -1 TO -2C OVER THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT
THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/CLOUDS (LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS IN THE LOWER
50S) TO CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT BELTS IN THE
EVENING EAST AND THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT OVER THE EAST...BUT THE WEST AND AREAS NEAR THE WISCONSIN
BORDER SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING. THAT CLEARING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOWARDS FREEZING. THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD
DIMINISH OR MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...THE
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND 850MB TEMPERATURES
MODERATE. WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL STAY PRIMIARLY OVER
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS MOISTURE STARVED...BUT THERE SHOULD
BE SOME CLOUDS BRUSHING THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER TOWARDS LUCE COUNTY. A MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA) WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. AS THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN AND LOWER
MICHIGAN...IT WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
(STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION) AND QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY
FRIDAY. IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION AS THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH (BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE STAYS TO THE SOUTH)...BUT IT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THAT COLDER AIR (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
-6 TO -9C BY FRIDAY NIGHT) AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. THE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND AREAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND THIRD
SHORTWAVE. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND ALLOW WARMER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE DIURNAL DISRUPTION TO
THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITAION AND AIDED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL
RIDGING/DRYING AHEAD OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR SURGING IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A MIX OR CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW FOR AREAS OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL U.P..
PRECIPITATION TYPE ON FRIDAY LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE
ARRIVIAL OF THE COLDEST AIR (WITH THE 00Z ECMWF TRAILING THE 12Z
GFS BY AROUND 6HRS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT). THAT
QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR WOULD PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW TO REMAIN MIXED IN WITH RAIN OVER THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY DUE TO 1000-850MB THICKNESSES (FALLING
BELOW 1300)...CLOUD MOVING INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AND WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS (FALLING BELOW 700FT). HAVE SHOWN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITIONED TO ALL SNOW HEADING INTO THE FRIDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACCUMULATION ON
GRASSY/LEAF COVERED SURFACES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW
AND NORTH CENTRAL ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE BACKING WINDS SUNDAY AND FLOW BECOMING ZONAL ALOFT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING A BROAD LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT
SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE POSITION OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE BOTH TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT BOTH ARE CONSISTENT IN IT
BEING VERY NEAR THE U.P..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU AT LEAST MID AFTN. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT -SHRA AT TIMES THRU THE NIGHT...BUT THE SHRA WILL
DIMINISH W TO E TODAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS AND CYCLONIC FLOW
EASES. INCOMING PRES RISE MAX WILL AID GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL WHERE WINDS SHOULD GUST
TO 30KT OR SO. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTN AS PRES
GRADIENT SLACKENS. WITH THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA TODAY...MVFR CIGS
MAY HOLD ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LATE THIS
AFTN AT KIWD AND THEN THIS EVENING AT KCMX/KSAW. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015
EXPECT WIDESPREAD NW GALES TO 35 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE W HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER THE E HALF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT/ARRIVAL OF SHARPER PRES GRADIENT.
THESE GALES WILL THEN DIMINISH W-E ON TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A HI
PRES RDG/WEAKER GRADIENT. A TYPICAL FALL PATTERN WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH PASSAGE OF SEVERAL LO PRES TROUGHS.
SHIFTING WINDS WILL BE UP TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS AND SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WOULD BE
ON THU NIGHT-FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPER TROUGH.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ244>247-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ240>243-263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
201 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FIRST COLD FRONT WITH DRIER AIR NOW NEAR INTERSTATE 75 WITH PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH NEAR MFD. THREAT FOR SHRA WILL END WITH FROPA AS IT
WORKS EAST ACROSS THE CWA THRU THE NIGHT. INITIAL BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT WAS PROGGED BY THE HRRR AND RAP TO INCREASE
REMAINS VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE PRECIP GETTING TO THE GROUND. HRRR
AND RAP NOW SHOWING MUCH LESS PRECIP AFTER REINITIALIZING WITH THE
LATEST RADAR INPUT. WILL BACK OFF POPS SOME EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTH/SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ON THE LAND AND WESTERLY FLOW ON THE LAKE. 850MB TEMPS WILL
DROP TO AS LOW AS 1C ON WEDNESDAY MORNING SO EXPECT LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE WEST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. DID START TO
INCREASE POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS WITH DEEP
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST. AS A WHOLE THE TROUGHING WILL LEND
ITSELF TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...GENERAL CLOUDINESS...AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN/SNOW IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE SNOWBELT.
THE FIRST WAVE OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE WITH A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO MID AND UPPER 30S AS
H850 TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW 0C. WE COULD GET COOLER DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION TO STABILIZE TEMPERATURES SOME. THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO SATURDAY AS THE O DEG C H850
ISOTHERM MIGRATES SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THIS COOLING
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT. DEW
POINTS WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER TOO AND MOST AREAS OUTSIDE
THE SNOWBELT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR. RIGHT NOW LOWS HAVE BEEN
PROGGED A DEG OR TWO COOLER YET...CLOSER TO FREEZING. IF NOT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN DEFINITELY SATURDAY NIGHT...FROST WILL FORM. FREEZES
ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN SOME OF THE COOLER SPOTS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT...LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GET GOING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKE. NOT SURE HOW MUCH THOUGH WITH VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS...RESTRICTED THE COVERAGE TO
THE AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OHIO INTO NW
PA. EXPECT VFR WITH THE SHOWERS UNTIL THEY CLEAR NW PA BY 08Z. THE
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PIVOT SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AT LEAST SOME BRIEF CLEARING AT MOST
LOCATIONS FOR A FEW HOURS. THERE MAY BE AN AREA OF CLOUDS THAT
DRIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID MORNING. CEILINGS COULD
BRIEFLY BECOME BROKEN AS THEY PASS BUT WILL REMAIN VFR. THE MAIN
SURGE OF MOISTURE THAT WILL THEN KEEP THE REGION OVERCAST ARRIVES
BY LATE MORNING WEST AND INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR POINTS EAST. AS
THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING CEILINGS MAY DIP TO
AROUND 3500 FEET...ESPECIALLY WHERE WINDS ARE OFF OF LAKE ERIE.
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY. GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS WILL BE COMMON BUT COULD BE IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE NEAR
THE LAKESHORE.
.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE MAINLY NE OH AND NW PA WED THRU SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDY TODAY. WINDIER TOMORROW. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH OF WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM THE ISLANDS EAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH A
GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THURSDAY
NIGHT THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE WIND BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MAYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
155 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE
VALUES. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ELONGATED MID/UPR LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO PIVOT
EAST THRU THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. INITIAL S/W
EVIDENT ON WV IMGRY DIGGING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF THRU INDIANA
WITHADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY OVER THE UPR MS RIVER VLY TO DROP DOWN
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN AN AXIS OF MSTR CONVERGENCE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF AN INITIAL COLD FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING INTO WESTERN
OHIO. PCPN IS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AND INITIAL FRONT TO PUSH
THRU ILN/S FA BY 06Z. DRY SLOT TO WORK INTO THE FA AND STAY FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS SECOND S/W DROPS SE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...SECONDARY FRONT AND ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OVER THE UPR MS VLY
WILL DROP INTO OHIO DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT
LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON DRAGGING
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT. A VERY THIN LINE OF SHOWERS CAN BE
FOUND ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE
ILLINOIS/ INDIANA BORDER. NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW
SHOWING A BIT OF CAPE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS ALSO A LITTLE BIT MORE BULLISH ON
PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA. FORECAST PWATS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER
NEAR 1.45". SURFACE CONVERGENCE STILL LOOKS RATHER WEAK AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE ONLY WEST WINDS
EXIST BEHIND IT. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND VORTICITY
ADVECTION HAVE BUMPED UP POPS (ESP. ACROSS EASTERN ZONES). THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING
BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST CLEARING THE CWA
(AROUND 6 OR 8 AM) WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL STILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THOUGH WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW
LOCATED JUST EAST OF MICHIGAN.
RH FIELDS IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRATOCUMULUS AND
CU MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW AND
ANOTHER WEDGE OF PVA MOVING OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO
BELOW 0.5" SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. THANKS TO THE
FORECASTED CLOUDS TUESDAY HAVE KEPT TREND OF LOWER MAX TEMPS.
WINDS COULD AGAIN BE BREEZY TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST TUESDAY EVENING
PUTTING ILN ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 850 TEMPS
REMAIN NEAR 4 DEGREES C THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
IN THE LOWER 60S TOWARDS THE NORTH AND MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAKING
FOR A COOL THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS IT DOES SOME WAA WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
PUSH UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS. IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAA...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ONLY IN THE 50S. FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO OVERHEAD BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE.
SOME IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WHERE THE LOW LEVELS HAVE BECOME SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ALONG WITH
THE FRONT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR.
FOR LATER TODAY...A LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
ROTATING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH WILL TEAM UP WITH 850 MB
MOISTURE/COLD POOL ALOFT TO BRING CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD RANGE
BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FEET. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP 25 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT...AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AND IT IS WEAKLY
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE BY A TROUGH AXIS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
850 MB MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE KCMH/KLCK TERMINALS...SO HAVE HELD ON TO BKN CEILINGS
BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500 FEET FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES/AR
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...HICKMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PORTLAND OR
1203 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 2015
UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION AND WWA SECTION
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTH OREGON COAST TONIGHT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOG DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
TUESDAY AND MAINTAIN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY...THOUGH SOME LOCAL MORNING FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...SATELLITE SHOWS STALLED FRONT HANGING OFF THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWS WEAK
RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHILE RAIN GAUGES HAVE AROUND 0.10
INCH IN PART OF SW WASHINGTON. THERE IS ALSO SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE
ASTORIA AREA BUT IN TILLAMOOK IT IS ALREADY CLEAR. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING
FURTHER INLAND NOT PASSING THE COAST RANGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA EXPECT RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER
SOME CLOUDS MAY REACH THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND INTERIOR OF SW
WASHINGTON LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LAST FEW POCKETS OF THIS MORNINGS DENSE FOG DISSIPATING
OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A SWATH OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
REMAINS FIXATED ON SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...BUT THE MAIN RAIN BAND IS
SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BORDER. 12Z MODELS SHOW SOME
PRECIP TRICKLING DOWN NEAR ASTORIA LATER THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND AND DISSIPATES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TOTAL
ACCUM PRECIP FOR THIS FRONTAL BAND IS AROUND 0.10" FOR FAR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF FOG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
COAST AND VALLEY AS LIGHT SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING
DRY...SUNNY...AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO STAY ABOVE OUR NORMAL 60-65 DEG THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...WITH INLAND HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS THERMAL TROUGHING
PUSHES NORTH...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. /27
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...KEEPING WIDESPREAD DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS
UNDER EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WHICH
REACHES OUR COASTLINE EARLY SATURDAY. ENJOY FRIDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE THE LAST SUNNY...DRY...WARM DAY BEFORE WET CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN PUSH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT LIGHT RAIN UNDER ONSHORE FLOW TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD HINT AT A DRYING TREND FOR SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR PRECIP BY NEXT MONDAY...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE OVERALL STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM. WENT MORE TOWARDS CLIMO POP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH 25-35% POP EXPECTED. /27
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. DISSIPATING FRONT
HAS BROUGHT IFR CIGS AND VIS TO KAST WITH -RA. CIGS AND VIS
COULD LOWER TO LIFR WITH CONTINUED -RA OR -DZ EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE CLOUDS FROM THIS FRONT MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
FAR NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...KEEPING FOG PATCHY IN THIS
AREA. STRATUS FROM THIS FRONT MOVES IN AROUND 4500 FT AND COULD
LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 2500 FT TUESDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH
EXPECT LESS FOG THAN LAST NIGHT AS CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE DRIER.
KSLE AND KEUG COULD STILL SEE FOG BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO
IFR/LIFR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST THE DISSIPATING FRONT APPROACHING MAY ALLOW
SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE...BUT WINDS
ALONG THE COAST IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO TURN OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT WHICH WILL TRY TO KEEP THIS FOG OR LOW STRATUS OFF THE
COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS MAY PROVE TO BE TOO WEAK...WHICH WOULD BRING
LIFR CIGS AND VIS TO KONP LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN
AROUND 4500 FT. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE CIGS COULD LOWER DOWN
TO 2500 FT AROUND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 18Z
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. -MCCOY
&&
.MARINE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST AS SEAS AT BUOY 89 ARE COMING
IN AROUND 14 FT AT 13 SECONDS UNDER A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL. THIS
IS RUNNING ABOUT 3 FEET HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. STANDARD DECAY RATE
WILL ONLY SEE THEM DROP AROUND A FOOT FOR THE INNER WATERS. STILL
NOT SEEING THE SAME INCREASE AT BUOY 50 WHERE SEAS ARE AT 9
FEET 12 SECONDS BUT DO EXPECT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE
TO PUSH SEAS TO 10 FT FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS FOR A TIME AS WELL.
AS SUCH...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR SEAS THERE UNTIL 4 AM.
REMAINDER OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /JBONK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THIS
DISSIPATING FRONT ON TUESDAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO A THERMAL LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
BRINGS BACK GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY EVENING
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS STAY UP AROUND 7 TO 9 FT BUT COULD
BECOME STEEP WITH MORE WIND DRIVEN SEAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KT UNTIL EARLY
SATURDAY WHEN THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO OUR WATERS. SEAS MAY FALL
BACK DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE WINDS START
TO BUILD SEAS BACK UP OVER THE WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 AM
PDT TUESDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
936 PM PDT MON OCT 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND EXTREME NORTH OREGON COAST TONIGHT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
FOG DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN
TUESDAY AND MAINTAIN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY...THOUGH SOME LOCAL MORNING FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...SATELLITE SHOWS STALLED FRONT HANGING OFF THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON AND FAR NORTH OREGON COAST THIS EVENING. RADAR SHOWS WEAK
RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHILE RAIN GAUGES HAVE AROUND 0.10
INCH IN PART OF SW WASHINGTON. THERE IS ALSO SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE
ASTORIA AREA BUT IN TILLAMOOK IT IS ALREADY CLEAR. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING
FURTHER INLAND NOT PASSING THE COAST RANGE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA EXPECT RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS. HOWEVER
SOME CLOUDS MAY REACH THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND INTERIOR OF SW
WASHINGTON LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THIS AFTERNOON...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LAST FEW POCKETS OF THIS MORNINGS DENSE FOG DISSIPATING
OVER THE NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CLARK COUNTY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A SWATH OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
REMAINS FIXATED ON SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...BUT THE MAIN RAIN BAND IS
SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BORDER. 12Z MODELS SHOW SOME
PRECIP TRICKLING DOWN NEAR ASTORIA LATER THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND AND DISSIPATES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TOTAL
ACCUM PRECIP FOR THIS FRONTAL BAND IS AROUND 0.10" FOR FAR SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A NEAR REPEAT OF FOG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
COAST AND VALLEY AS LIGHT SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING
DRY...SUNNY...AND WARM WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO STAY ABOVE OUR NORMAL 60-65 DEG THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...WITH INLAND HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AS THERMAL TROUGHING
PUSHES NORTH...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. /27
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...KEEPING WIDESPREAD DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS
UNDER EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WHICH
REACHES OUR COASTLINE EARLY SATURDAY. ENJOY FRIDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE THE LAST SUNNY...DRY...WARM DAY BEFORE WET CONDITIONS
ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN PUSH OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY...THEN EXPECT LIGHT RAIN UNDER ONSHORE FLOW TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD HINT AT A DRYING TREND FOR SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR PRECIP BY NEXT MONDAY...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THE OVERALL STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM. WENT MORE TOWARDS CLIMO POP FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH 25-35% POP EXPECTED. /27
&&
.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA. DISSIPATING FRONT
HAS BROUGHT IFR CIGS AND VIS TO KAST WITH -RA. CIGS AND VIS
COULD LOWER TO LIFR WITH CONTINUED -RA OR -DZ EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. WILL SEE CLOUDS FROM THIS FRONT MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE
FAR NORTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...KEEPING FOG PATCHY IN THIS
AREA. STRATUS FROM THIS FRONT MOVES IN AROUND 4500 FT AND COULD
LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 2500 FT TUESDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH
EXPECT LESS FOG THAN LAST NIGHT AS CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE DRIER.
KSLE AND KEUG COULD STILL SEE FOG BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO
IFR/LIFR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST THE DISSIPATING FRONT APPROACHING MAY ALLOW
SOME FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE...BUT WINDS
ALONG THE COAST IN THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO TURN OFFSHORE LATER
TONIGHT WHICH WILL TRY TO KEEP THIS FOG OR LOW STRATUS OFF THE
COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS MAY PROVE TO BE TOO WEAK...WHICH WOULD BRING
LIFR CIGS AND VIS TO KONP LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN
AROUND 4500 FT. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE CIGS COULD LOWER DOWN
TO 2500 FT AROUND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT AROUND 18Z
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. -MCCOY
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 KT SO HAVE ALLOWED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS TO EXPIRE. SEAS ARE UP AROUND 9 TO
12 FT ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH LOWER SEAS IN THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS LIKELY TO BUILD CLOSER TO 10 FT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
THEREFORE...KEEPING SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OUT ACROSS THE
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THIS
DISSIPATING FRONT ON TUESDAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO A THERMAL LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
BRINGS BACK GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT TUESDAY EVENING
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS STAY UP AROUND 7 TO 9 FT BUT COULD
BECOME STEEP WITH MORE WIND DRIVEN SEAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KT UNTIL EARLY
SATURDAY WHEN THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO OUR WATERS. SEAS MAY FALL
BACK DOWN TO 4 TO 6 FT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE WINDS START
TO BUILD SEAS BACK UP OVER THE WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR
OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM
TO 9 AM PDT TUESDAY.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
349 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY...ALSO A QUESTION OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WHICH COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AS THERE LIKELY WILL BE A GOOD
GRADIENT SINCE DEW POINT SPREAD WILL BE PRETTY GOOD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. FIRST THE RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS STILL ROBUST ON RAIN
CHANCES TODAY...WHILE 4 KM MODELS HAVE RECENTLY BACKED OFF A BIT
ON THE RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER MOST RECENT HRRR IS HAVING MORE
CONVECTION ON ITS 06Z RUN (ALTHOUGH IT CAN HAVE A TENDENCY TO
OVER-FORECAST RAIN). HAVE DECIDED TO GO THE DISTANCE AND PRETTY
MUCH KEEP THE POPS THAT WE HAVE GOING. RAIN MAY MAINLY BE LIGHT
AND THUNDER MAY BE LIMITED TO THE GULF WATERS WHERE THE CAP/CIN IS
WEAKEST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER MAINLY OUT WEST...AND
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIMILAR IF NOT WARMER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE EAST TODAY. HAVE DECIDED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT
BE A BIT MORE ON THE WARM SIDE WEST AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
EASTERN AREAS. FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD EITHER BE OVER OR
SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND DID NOT MENTION ANY RAINFALL. COULD HAVE
SOME FOG OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF DEW POINTS
REMAIN HOW. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW. A GOOD RANGE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS NEAR 60 OVER THE VICTORIA AREA TO MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST AND LAREDO AREA. SHOULD HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. REMAINING
WARM...WITH 90S MOST INLAND AREAS. MAY HAVE A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
FOR A TIME TODAY BUT OVERALL BY TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION LIKELY TO GET GOING
LATER TODAY OVER THE GULF WATERS AS WEAK BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE ZONE
MOVES IN WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LITTLE TO NO CAP IN PLACE. WINDS
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. A GENERALLY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER WEAK RIDGING....WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW DUE TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. MID LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS
THROUGH THE WEEK AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW ROUNDS BACK TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY...SLOWLY MOVING FARTHER EAST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS AN OPEN WAVE BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LOWERING 1000-500 THICKNESS HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE RELATIVELY COOLER INTO THE UPPER
80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...YET STILL REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S DUE
TO THE DRY AIR MASS...LEADING TO GREATER DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE INLAND LOCATIONS. MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES...AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT LOWS...WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 72 91 67 88 / 30 10 10 0 0
VICTORIA 93 58 91 61 89 / 30 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 96 73 96 69 93 / 10 10 0 0 0
ALICE 96 70 95 65 91 / 20 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 89 70 88 69 87 / 40 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 95 65 95 63 92 / 10 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 95 71 94 65 89 / 30 10 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 88 74 88 71 86 / 40 10 10 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...SHORT TERM
CB/85...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
242 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH EXPANSIVE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS
IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EDGING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL HELP TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN LATER TODAY TO HELP CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...LOOKING UPSTREAM WE CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS
STREAMING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SO THIS WILL
CREATE SOME ISSUES WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST TODAY. ALSO...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS PRODUCING A BKN TO OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.
MESOSCALE MODEL SIMULATED RADAR REFLECTIVITY PRODUCES SOME LIGHT
RETURNS. AFTER LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
PRETTY DRY BELOW 10KFT...EXCEPT FOR THE THIN BKN TO OVC STRATUS
AROUND 1500 FT. SO...WITH THE LOW EXITING TO THE EAST AND THE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...IT WILL BE A BREEZY DAY WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES. THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR TODAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT WILL BE STUBBORN TO DO SO ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN FACT...THESE AREAS MY NOT CLEAR UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUE
TO THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY. PLAN ON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS. ALSO..DEEP MIXING WILL
LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WHERE AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO FALL
INTO THE 27 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. WEST/NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH AT TIMES. A TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BRING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A HARD FREEZE IS LOOKING
LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WHERE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S.
ELSEWHERE ...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. WE COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES GET EVEN COLDER ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH EDGING IN.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WINDY DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS . THE GFS IS GENERATING SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS WE GET CLOSER
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE MVFR CLOUD MADE SOME GOOD EASTWARD
PROGRESS EARLY IN THE EVENING BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE SHOWING LITTLE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. BOTH THE 13.00Z NAM AND 13.03Z RAP INDICATE
THE MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE CLOUDS SHOULD SHIFT MORE SOUTHWARD
THAN EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE CLOUDS OVER
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA. THIS
WOULD CAUSE THE CEILINGS TO COME DOWN SOME MORE BUT REMAIN MVFR.
THE NAM NOW HOLDS ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER DURING TUESDAY THAN THE
12.18Z RUN BUT GIVEN THAT THE BACK EDGE IS CLOSER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...PLAN TO STAY WITH THE PREVIOUS TIMING OF CLEARING KRST
OUT LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND KLSE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE WITH THE INVERSION IN THE VALLEY
NOW KEEPING KLSE FROM GUSTING. WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEP THE GUSTS GOING AT KRST
UNTIL LATE MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
THE WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
SPEEDS ARE NO LONGER IN THE ADVISORY RANGE AND THEY WILL STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THE DIMINISHING TREND. AS A
RESULT...HAVE LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/MIXING
DESPITE CLOUDINESS BRINGING 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS TO THE SURFACE.
GENERALLY 25 TO 30 SUSTAINED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...LESS
EAST. WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MN AND NORTHEAST IA. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE STAYED JUST UNDER
CRITERIA...BUT SHOULD STAY WINDY/GUSTY THROUGH AT LEAST MID/LATE
EVENING - PER RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EXTENDING
THE ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING...BUT WITH CRITERIA MOSTLY BEING
MISSED RIGHT NOW...AND PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO SEE IF AN EXTENSION WOULD
BE WARRANTED. IF SO...PROBABLY ONLY TIL 9 PM. GRADIENT SLACKENS
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT BREEZY - BUT NOT AS WINDY - CONDITIONS
INTO TUESDAY.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WERE SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
ACROSS NORTHWEST WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST...EXITING BY EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH...MOSTLY NORTH OF I-94 CORRIDOR...THOUGH 8-
9 PM OR SO.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
CONSENSUS IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS IS A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW A
LOFT....WITH THE VARIOUS RIPPLES IN THE FLOW EITHER NORTH OR
MOISTURE STARVED. ONE EXCEPTION IS A SHORTWAVE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THU. SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL SATURATION AND QG CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANY THIS
FEATURE...WITH A SLUG OF LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING LEADING IT IN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT...WITH THE HIGHER THREAT LIKELY
NORTH.
TEMPERATURES LOOK MOSTLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THU...BUT COLDER AIR IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA POST THE THU SYSTEM. NAEFS 850
MB TEMP ANOMALIES HOVER AROUND -1 FOR FRI/SAT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN
THE GFS/EC FROM -4 TO -6 C BY 12Z SAT MORNING. WITH A SFC HIGH
BUILDING OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...SAT COULD BE A VERY CHILLY MORNING
FOR THE REGION. A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015
THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE MVFR CLOUD MADE SOME GOOD EASTWARD
PROGRESS EARLY IN THE EVENING BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE SHOWING LITTLE
EASTWARD MOVEMENT. BOTH THE 13.00Z NAM AND 13.03Z RAP INDICATE
THE MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE CLOUDS SHOULD SHIFT MORE SOUTHWARD
THAN EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE CLOUDS OVER
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THE AREA. THIS
WOULD CAUSE THE CEILINGS TO COME DOWN SOME MORE BUT REMAIN MVFR.
THE NAM NOW HOLDS ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER DURING TUESDAY THAN THE
12.18Z RUN BUT GIVEN THAT THE BACK EDGE IS CLOSER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...PLAN TO STAY WITH THE PREVIOUS TIMING OF CLEARING KRST
OUT LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND KLSE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE WITH THE INVERSION IN THE VALLEY
NOW KEEPING KLSE FROM GUSTING. WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND KEEP THE GUSTS GOING AT KRST
UNTIL LATE MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
734 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. A
COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NY STATE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WINDS AND THE
ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED WIND HAZARDS. THE
COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN AREA WIDE FREEZE. A RETURN TO
MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THEIR
TIMING. THAT SAID...THINKING THE HRRR HAS THE BEST IDEA REGARDING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. TRIED TO
ADJUST TIMING OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...BUT LOWEST
CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO
REFLECT OBSERVED TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE...WELL DEFINED ON LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY...CONTINUES TO MOVE N-NE TOWARD THE S COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP MOVING ASHORE ACROSS S AND CENTRAL
RI AS SEEN ON LATEST NE 88D RADAR MOSAIC. STILL SOME ISOLD C/G
LIGHTNING STROKES SEEN OFFSHORE AS WELL. NOTED MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY /TQ VALUES 16 TO 17/ MOVING CLOSE TO AND AHEAD OF THE
LOW AS SEEN ON 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SO CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 11Z-13Z ALONG THE S COAST TO MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND THE LOWER CAPE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS...PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY.
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...ACROSS
RI/SE MA THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE
PRECIP MOVES IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL LOWER AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. ALSO NOTING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING IN THE SW FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN MA/N CENTRAL CT. WILL SEE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS THERE.
NOTING DRY SLOT BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON THE WATER VAPOR THAT WILL WORK
IN WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION...THEN COLD FRONT PUSHES
TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF NY STATE AS ITS H5 SHORT
WAVE SHIFTS STEADILY E. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY LOOKS TO
SHIFT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SO BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.
WITH WEAK GRADIENT BETWEEN SYSTEMS...EXPECT LIGHT/VRBL OR CALM
WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY THEN WILL PICK UP FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH MILDER AIR WORKING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY MOVE E EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO W AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN...AND MAY BE BRIEFLY GUSTY
ALONG THE S COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME CLOUDS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES ALONG WITH A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...EXCEPT THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
WEDNESDAY...
AS BROAD TROUGH ALOFT SETS UP W OF THE REGION...WILL REMAIN W
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION THOUGH THE
CORE OF IT LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. MAY STILL SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S...MILDEST ACROSS E MA INTO RI AS WELL AS THE MID AND LOWER CT
VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS ...
- THURSDAY: A POTENTIAL LULL IN THE WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
- FRIDAY-SATURDAY: COOL AND WET WITH POTENTIAL WIND-HAZARDS
- SUNDAY-MONDAY: COLDEST AIR SO FAR...POTENTIAL FREEZE
DISCUSSION ...
13/00Z GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...WHICH IS
NOT THAT UNCOMMON FOR THIS TIME RANGE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE IS THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 13/00Z ECMWF RETAINS A
SINGLE LOW PRESSURE...WHILE THE 13/00Z GFS AND CANADIAN SPLIT OFF
SOME ENERGY AND DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON HOW LONG PRECIPITATION MAY
STICK AROUND SATURDAY.
EASTERN USA MID LEVEL TROUGH GETS REINVIGORATED THIS WEEKEND AS
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON PUTS IN AN APPEARANCE. MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...AND THE TYPICAL PREDICTABILITY
FOR THE DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR NOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...
BUT NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THINKING WE WILL REMAIN
MAINLY DRY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A SHOWER WOULD BE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TIMING...TO SEE IF
MORE MOISTURE CAN INTERACT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DETAILS ARE NOT SO CLEAR FOR THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...EXPECTING A LOW PRESSURE TO BE
NEARBY TO OUR NORTH...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS
AS IT MOVES ON BY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. NOT
EXPECTING A WASHOUT...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE WETTEST PERIOD
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. STILL NEED TO RESOLVE THE
EVOLUTION OF A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE...IF IT DEVELOPS AT
ALL..SATURDAY. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
STILL LOOKING LIKE THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON ARRIVES
AHEAD OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...STILL EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST TO
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH FREEZE...OR FROST. WILL LIKELY NEED TO
CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...MUCH
OF THIS DRIVEN BY COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT...ANY SUNSHINE COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN
QUESTION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THROUGH MID-MORNING...IFR TO LOCAL LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOW
CLOUDS/PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOULD IMPROVE BY 14Z-15Z ACROSS E MA...
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS CT
VALLEY SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR CIGS. ISOLATED TSRA TOWARD
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS THIS MORNING. REMAINDER OF DAY...MAY SEE
BRIEF LOCAL MVFR WITH SCT SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SW
WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY ESPECIALLY ACROSS CT VALLEY AND S
COAST...GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS/LOCAL
MVFR VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS WILL MOVE E THROUGH 03Z-05Z. SOME -SHRA
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES...MAY SEE
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO W.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WILL SEE DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP AT
AROUND 4KFT. EXPECT SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE DAY. MAY ALSO
SEE BRIEF LOCAL SPRINKLES WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...BEST CHANCE FOR
-SHRA ACROSS E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. EXPECT W-SW WINDS TO GUST
TO AROUND 20 KT ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
HAVE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 09Z-14Z AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS.
LOW CHANCE FOR TSRA THROUGH 14Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID
MORNING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR CIGS. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS
POSSIBLE. GREATER CHANCE FOR MVFR-LIFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVING
SATURDAY TO MVFR TO LOW-END VFR WITH SCT-BKN. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS LOW PRES
MOVES ACROSS THE E WATERS BY AROUND MIDDAY. CONTINUED S-SW WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED SWELL 5-7 FT BY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR SEAS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS
BI/RI SOUNDS.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SWEEPS OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO W.
WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE TONIGHT AND WED.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE OVERALL
CONFIDENCE.
MAY SEE WEST WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH SOME INTO THURSDAY BENEATH
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.
FRIDAY S/SW GALES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL HOLD AT 30 KTS FOR NOW.
SEAS EXPECTED TO BE QUICKLY BUILDING OVER ALL WATERS FRIDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WINDS TURN NW BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND REMAIN BLUSTERY WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. GUSTY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS SHOULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
638 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK CONDITIONS
...AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EDT...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SRN ONTARIO. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER LOW HAS KEPT IT MILD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
A COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND. SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP THIS MORNING JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF LONG ISLAND. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND STRATUS HAVE MOVED INTO
PARTS OF NW CT...THE BERKSHIRES AND EAST OF THE SRN GREEN MTNS IN
VT IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE WAVE. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
WAS INCLUDED THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THESE AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUE TO IMPACT WRN NY
THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL SFC
TROUGH ARE TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LATEST LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF HRRR PRODUCT AND THE NAM IN TERMS OF THERE ARRIVAL IN THE
WFO ALY FCST AREA. THEY WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL 15Z-17Z WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN 17Z-19Z FROM THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS SLOWER TREND WITH HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WITH THE SFC
TROUGH OR FIRST FRONT. AN AREA OF CATEGORICAL VALUES WAS USED
OVER THE SRN DACKS. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH THE MAIN THRUST
OF COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAIRLY STABLE WITH ONLY SMALL
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...AND SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES MAINLY O
TO +2C. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE
COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS/TEXT
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SPC CONTINUES A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
THREAT OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER SW QUEBEC AND NRN NY
BTWN 18Z-00Z WITH THE BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS OVER THE NRN ZONES.
HIGHER QPF TOTALS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A HALF
INCH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SRN DACKS. ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
H850 TEMPS OF +10C TO +12C THIS MORNING FALL TO +4C TO +8C BY THE
LATE PM AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY OR
MAIN COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO U60S ARE FORECASTED
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE OVER THE VALLEYS AND HILLS...WITH
SOME U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER SE
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SHOWERS PERSISTING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN GREEN
MTNS...THE WRN DACKS AND INTO THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS. MAINLY THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD BE DRY...AND IN THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
TRENDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE M40S TO AROUND 50F ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
SOME LOWER 40S IN THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.
WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GEFS HAVE BELOW NORMAL H500 HEIGHTS OVER NY
AND NEW ENGLAND WITH H850 TEMPS TRENDING TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE TAPPING SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU INTO THE WRN DACKS. IN THE COOL AND MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW...EXPECT INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WRN DACKS
IN NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF
SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE LAKE ONTARIO TEMPS ARE IN THE
MID TO U50S BASED ON THE GLERL SITE...AND WITH STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH H850 TEMPS TUMBLING TO 0C TO -2C A DECENT
LAKE RESPONSE IS EXPECTED WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BRISK AND
COOL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS AND NW CT...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE MTNS...AND
IN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.
WED NIGHT...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED...THE
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL KEEP MAINLY LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS
GOING WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THE BETTER PART OF THE
NIGHT. IN BUFKIT...THE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY IS WESTERLY THEN VEERS OR
SHIFTS A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM PROFILES
AT KSYR AND KRME. OUR HIGHEST POPS WERE INCLUDED OVER THE WRN
DACKS AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. A TRANSITION TO SOME WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS. FOR NOW...HAVE A COATING TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR SO IN A FEW SPOTS. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND WINDS
MAY KEEP TEMPS UP ENOUGH FOR NOT ALLOWING FROST FORMATION WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL GOING. TEMPS FLIRT WITH THE MID 30S IN
THE ERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON GOES
UNTIL OCT 15TH. OVERALL LOWS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER MANY
OF THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U20S TO U30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND
THE MID LEVEL FLOW SLIGHTLY FLATTENS...AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS SE ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY. A MORE POTENT
SHORT-WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO MID-OCT SEASONAL VALUES WITH M50S TO
L60S OVER THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO 50S OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BE GRADUALLY DEEPENING OVER THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS ROTATING THROUGH
THE REGION...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF CYCLONIC FLOW. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE
OVER THE REGION AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN THE FIRST FALL LIKE COLD AIR MASS TO
SETTLE INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
THE FIRST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPS GET TO FREEZING OR BELOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
NOW FOR SOME SPECIFICS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. POPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA (GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES IN VERMONT). 40 TO 50
PERCENT POPS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WILL STILL PRODUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS OF
20 TO 40 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT FALL LATER AT NIGHT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...LOWEST OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...DURING THIS PERIOD IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR THESE SHOWERS TO FALL AS SNOW MOST OF THE TIME. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID
30S TO THE 40S.
THE CENTER OF A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING
BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL BE
MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND AN END TO ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS ON MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG NEVER DID FORM AT THE KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES LAST NIGHT...SO WILL
START ALL THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THE VFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST NOON.
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE TAF SITES
AROUND 17Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND 18Z AT KPSF. ONCE THE SHOWERS
ARRIVE...THERE SHOULD BE A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
DUE TO THE RAINFALL.
AFTER AROUND 13/23Z OR 14/00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL THE TAF SITES AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE...BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL BE LOW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 6 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
15 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND 23Z/00Z THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15
KTS STILL POSSIBLE AT KALB UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT
WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK CONDITIONS.
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 55 TO 75 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 50 TO 75 PERCENT.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. EXPECT WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ENDING SATURDAY.
TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A
TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE
TO A HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK
REGION.
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH DISTURBANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE MID WEEK. SOME
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE AT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MID OCTOBER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
628 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK CONDITIONS
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SRN ONTARIO. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER LOW HAS KEPT IT MILD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
A COASTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DELMARVA
REGION. SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP THIS MORNING JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUE TO
IMPACT WRN NY THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION THIS MORNING.
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL SFC
TROUGH ARE TRENDING A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE LATEST LAYER COLUMN
MAX REF HRRR PRODUCT AND THE NAM IN TERMS OF THERE ARRIVAL IN THE
WFO ALY FCST AREA. THEY WILL NOT LIKELY ARRIVE UNTIL 15Z-17Z WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THEN 17Z-19Z FROM THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. WE HAVE TRIED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS SLOWER TREND WITH HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WITH THE FIRST
FRONT. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WITH THE MAIN THRUST OF COLD
ADVECTION ARRIVES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAIRLY STABLE WITH ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY...AND SHOWALTER STABILITY INDICES MAINLY O TO +2C. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE COVERAGE DOES NOT
LOOK ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS/TEXT FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
SPC CONTINUES A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER MOST OF THE
REGION. THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TURNS
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER SW QUEBEC AND NRN NY BTWN 18Z-00Z WITH THE
BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS OVER THE NRN ZONES. HIGHER QPF TOTALS OF A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SRN DACKS. ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST.
H850 TEMPS OF +10C TO +12C THIS MORNING FALL TO +4C TO +8C BY THE
LATE PM AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY OR
MAIN COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO U60S ARE FORECASTED
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE OVER THE VALLEYS AND HILLS...WITH
SOME U50S TO L60S OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER SE
CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH SOME WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SHOWERS PERSISTING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SRN GREEN
MTNS...THE WRN DACKS AND INTO THE W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
CATSKILLS. MAINLY THE VALLEY AREAS SHOULD BE DRY...AND IN THE
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
TRENDING TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE M40S TO AROUND 50F ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH
SOME LOWER 40S IN THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.
WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GEFS HAVE BELOW NORMAL H500 HEIGHTS OVER NY
AND NEW ENGLAND WITH H850 TEMPS TRENDING TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE TAPPING SOME GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE...AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU INTO THE WRN DACKS. IN THE COOL AND MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW...EXPECT INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WRN DACKS
IN NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF
SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE LAKE ONTARIO TEMPS ARE IN THE
MID TO U50S BASED ON THE GLERL SITE...AND WITH STEEPENING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH H850 TEMPS TUMBLING TO 0C TO -2C A DECENT
LAKE RESPONSE IS EXPECTED WED PM INTO THE EARLY EVENING. BRISK AND
COOL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE U50S TO L60S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS AND NW CT...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE MTNS...AND
IN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.
WED NIGHT...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED...THE
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL KEEP MAINLY LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS
GOING WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THE BETTER PART OF THE
NIGHT. IN BUFKIT...THE LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY IS WESTERLY THEN VEERS OR
SHIFTS A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM PROFILES
AT KSYR AND KRME. OUR HIGHEST POPS WERE INCLUDED OVER THE WRN
DACKS AND WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. A TRANSITION TO SOME WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN DACKS. FOR NOW...HAVE A COATING TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR SO IN A FEW SPOTS. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND WINDS
MAY KEEP TEMPS UP ENOUGH FOR NOT ALLOWING FROST FORMATION WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL GOING. TEMPS FLIRT WITH THE MID 30S IN
THE ERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON GOES
UNTIL OCT 15TH. OVERALL LOWS WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER MANY
OF THE VALLEY AREAS...AND U20S TO U30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND
THE MID LEVEL FLOW SLIGHTLY FLATTENS...AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS SE ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY. A MORE POTENT
SHORT-WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO MID-OCT SEASONAL VALUES WITH M50S TO
L60S OVER THE FCST AREA...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO 50S OVER THE MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BE GRADUALLY DEEPENING OVER THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROFS ROTATING THROUGH
THE REGION...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF CYCLONIC FLOW. LATE
IN THE WEEKEND A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE
OVER THE REGION AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN THE FIRST FALL LIKE COLD AIR MASS TO
SETTLE INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
THE FIRST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHERE TEMPS GET TO FREEZING OR BELOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
NOW FOR SOME SPECIFICS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN SHOWERS. POPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA (GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES IN VERMONT). 40 TO 50
PERCENT POPS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WILL STILL PRODUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS OF
20 TO 40 PERCENT HAVE BEEN FORECAST IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S...AND ANY SHOWERS THAT FALL LATER AT NIGHT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...LOWEST OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S...AND
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...DURING THIS PERIOD IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR THESE SHOWERS TO FALL AS SNOW MOST OF THE TIME. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID
30S TO THE 40S.
THE CENTER OF A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING
BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL BE
MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND AN END TO ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS ON MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG NEVER DID FORM AT THE KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES LAST NIGHT...SO WILL
START ALL THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITONS. THE VFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST NOON.
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE TAF SITES
AROUND 17Z AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AND 18Z AT KPSF. ONCE THE SHOWERS
ARRIVE...THERE SHOULD BE A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
DUE TO THE RAINFALL.
AFTER AROUND 13/23Z OR 14/00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AT ALL THE TAF SITES AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE...BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL BE LOW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 6 TO 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
15 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF. AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AROUND 23Z/00Z THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15
KTS STILL POSSIBLE AT KALB UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT
WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A COOLER MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY WITH BRISK CONDITIONS.
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 55 TO 75 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM RH VALUES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE 50 TO 75 PERCENT.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. EXPECT WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ENDING SATURDAY.
TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A
TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSE
TO A HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK
REGION.
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH DISTURBANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE MID WEEK. SOME
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF A TENTH
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE AT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MID OCTOBER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
903 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A SECONDARY
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO MIDWEST AND MID
SOUTH REGIONS OF THE US. THERE WAS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER THAN THE UPSTREAM
ONE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR WESTERN ZONES
OF EASTERN PA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.
LATEST RADAR SHOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS APPROACHING WRN SECTIONS OF
OUR CWA. GUID CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON HOW MUCH OF IT MAKES IT THRU
OUR REGION. LATEST HRRR IS A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN PREV RUNS,
ESPECIALLY FOR NRN AREAS, SO HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT ACRS THE N,
BUT STILL THE GUID IS DRIER THAN YDY.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO
THE AFTERNOON, MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NE PA/NW NJ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU
THE DELAWARE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST
MID EVENING.
THE PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
BY THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT ITSELF TO ISOLATED. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WINDS BECOME W-NWLY. HOWEVER, CAA STRATOCU SHOULD REACH THE
POCONOS OVERNIGHT.
DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO LOW ON MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AS THE WINDS SHOULD
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED, EXCEPT MAYBE IN THE MOST SHELTERED
VALLEYS. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN NE PA/NW NJ TO THE MID 50S
IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE SKIES CLOUDING UP THROUGH THE
DAY. THE MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKS LIMITED AND THE FRONT APPEARS TO
WEAKEN AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION.
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
CLOUDS SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AREAS, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT WE WILL SEE
INFLUENCE FROM IT AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD AND NOSES UP TOWARDS OUR
AREA.
THE HIGH GETS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING AND SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY, EXITING OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WHILE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED, ONCE AGAIN, THERE LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. WE HAVE BROUGHT THE START OF
SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ALL SHOWERS LOOKING TO END BY
FRIDAY EVENING.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A REINFORCING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED
BOUNDARY BUT SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES, THAT`S RIGHT FLURRIES, MAY
MAKE IT TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS AND WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THE AIRMASS TO MODIFY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
COLDEST NIGHTS LOOK TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SUCH COLD
TEMPERATURES COMES THE THREAT OF FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS.
WHILE A FREEZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS HAS SOME REALLY GOOD
POTENTIAL, A FROST IS NOT AS QUITE CLEAR CUT IN AREAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AT NIGHT,
BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE REALLY LOSE THAT GRADIENT FLOW SO IT MAY
BE DIFFICULT FOR FROST TO FORM ON THESE NIGHTS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
ALSO BE COLD, BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER IN THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
WOULD BE OUT TOWARD RDG/ABE. AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF DAYTIME
MIXING, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. SHRA WITH THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.
LIMITED THE IMPACTED ON VSBYS FROM ANY SHRA AT RDG AND ABE.
FARTHER EAST, A MENTION OF SHRA IN THE TAFS WAS CONFINED TO A
PROB30 GROUP.
SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
VFR TONIGHT.
S-SW WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN BEFORE BECOMING W-NWLY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTS. WEST WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 KNOTS OR
GREATER.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TODAY THAT INCLUDES MOST OF OUR COASTAL ATLANTIC
WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN MOST ZONE, ANZ450. S-SWLY WINDS BY
MID MRNG ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KT.
SEAS WILL RESPOND BY INCREASING TO 4-5 FT THIS AFTN.
WINDS BECOME W-NWLY LATE THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW AND GUSTS MAY NEAR 25 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FLOW SHOULD START TO WEAKEN WITH GUSTS REMAINING BELOW 25 KNOTS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT
ON FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY BY LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE OVERALL GRADIENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAN THE MIDWEEK ONE AND THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEING REACHED ON ALL OF THE
WATERS, ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ451>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...KLEIN/MEOLA/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/MEOLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1054 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.UPDATE...
MADE VERY SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR GULF WATERS AND NAPLES METRO AREA AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN PATCHES OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REGIONAL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WEST AND EAST
COAST SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME.
AROUND 00Z LIKELY TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SOUTH FLORIDA SITTING BENEATH THE
BASE OF A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS MAINTAINING A
DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT AMOUNTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT FROM LAST
EVENING`S 00Z MFL SOUNDING AT 1.52". FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE VERY LOW LEVELS AND A SLIGHT NUDGE UP OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PWAT INCREASING TO AROUND 1.6-1.7" BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SO WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELD, A SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT
TERM MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS. THE HRRR WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
EARLIER RUNS BUT HAS SINCE BACKED OFF ON MUCH DEVELOPMENT SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV GUIDANCE AND JUST GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM MAINTAINS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN NIL.
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS
SHOW A RETURN OF MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO EMERGE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES
NORTHWARD AND THE PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 2". THE NAM ALSO SHOWS THE
CAP ERODING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS FORESEEN ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENING SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, I CAN ALSO SEE THIS FORECAST TRENDING DOWN AS
TIME GOES ON AS THESE PATTERNS ARE NEVER HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE
MODELS AND SOMETIMES ARE WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE IN THE MOISTURE
RETURN.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...
ONLY SOME SUBTLE CHANGES ARE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LARGE
SCALE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM MOVING VERY FAR TO THE NORTH AND IN FACT SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT
COULD BE SHOVED BACK TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IS FORECAST TO
BE 1035MB WHICH WILL CAUSE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS WIND REMAINS BELOW 15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS AND THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 73 88 74 / 10 10 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 76 88 76 / 10 30 40 30
MIAMI 88 75 88 77 / 10 30 40 30
NAPLES 87 73 87 74 / 20 10 30 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
744 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REGIONAL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WEST AND EAST
COAST SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME.
AROUND 00Z LIKELY TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SOUTH FLORIDA SITTING BENEATH THE
BASE OF A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS MAINTAINING A
DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT AMOUNTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT FROM LAST
EVENING`S 00Z MFL SOUNDING AT 1.52". FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE VERY LOW LEVELS AND A SLIGHT NUDGE UP OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PWAT INCREASING TO AROUND 1.6-1.7" BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SO WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELD, A SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT
TERM MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS. THE HRRR WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
EARLIER RUNS BUT HAS SINCE BACKED OFF ON MUCH DEVELOPMENT SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV GUIDANCE AND JUST GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM MAINTAINS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN NIL.
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS
SHOW A RETURN OF MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO EMERGE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES
NORTHWARD AND THE PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 2". THE NAM ALSO SHOWS THE
CAP ERODING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS FORESEEN ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENING SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, I CAN ALSO SEE THIS FORECAST TRENDING DOWN AS
TIME GOES ON AS THESE PATTERNS ARE NEVER HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE
MODELS AND SOMETIMES ARE WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE IN THE MOISTURE
RETURN.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...
ONLY SOME SUBTLE CHANGES ARE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LARGE
SCALE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM MOVING VERY FAR TO THE NORTH AND IN FACT SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT
COULD BE SHOVED BACK TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IS FORECAST TO
BE 1035MB WHICH WILL CAUSE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS WIND REMAINS BELOW 15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS AND THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 73 88 74 / 10 10 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 87 76 88 76 / 20 30 40 30
MIAMI 88 75 88 77 / 20 30 40 30
NAPLES 87 73 87 74 / 10 10 30 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1110 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THIS MORNING. WILL
UPDATE THE POPS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. LATEST RUN
OF THE HRRR KEEPS THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH GA WILL WEAKEN BUT
CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. PRECIP/CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY...AND BY TONIGHT THE CWA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
17
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF THE SAME WAY IT FINISHES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THINGS DRY. A VERY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER N GA BY 00Z-06Z THU. THIS RIDGING CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE EXTENDED THROUGH DAY 7 IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS A
VERY WEAK DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY...BUT ALL IT BRINGS IS ANOTHER REINFORCING RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOW THROUGH DAY 7
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S...AND DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM.
01
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS MOVING THROUGH CSG/MCN BUT
THIS WILL EXIT BY 15Z LEAVING ALL TAF SITES DRY. VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TAFS...HOWEVER WITH INITIAL LIFTING AROUND THE ATL AND AHN
AREAS...THERE COULD BE A SCT015 DECK. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD
BRIEFLY GO BKN...THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. DRY AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING CLEARING SKIES BY AFTERNOON WITH AT
SCATTERED CU DECK WHICH WILL DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET. WINDS WILL
BE WESTERLY WITH A FEW GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CLOUDS THIS MORNING
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS
17
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 78 51 74 48 / 10 5 0 0
ATLANTA 78 52 74 51 / 10 5 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 75 43 68 42 / 10 5 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 79 47 74 45 / 10 5 0 0
COLUMBUS 80 52 78 50 / 50 5 0 0
GAINESVILLE 77 51 73 48 / 10 5 0 0
MACON 83 51 78 49 / 50 5 0 0
ROME 78 46 75 46 / 10 5 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 79 47 76 47 / 20 5 0 0
VIDALIA 84 56 80 53 / 50 5 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1005 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
..NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM TUESDAY...
THE PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED AND WE ARE JUST LEFT WITH A NARROW
BAND MID CLOUDS CROSSING THE PIEDMONT. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...60-
120M...GIVE JUST A GLANCING BLOW TODAY AS THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND PRIMARY COLD FRONT...WHICH STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL OHIO TO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AT 13Z...APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MERGING WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND THEN CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WITH VERY
LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE AND MLCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG (AND FOCUSED WELL
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN)...THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXPECTED. AS
THE BAND OF MID CLOUDS MOVES EAST...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SHOULD GUST TO 20-25KT IN THE EAST BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS WITH HIGHS
EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS. -22
SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL CAA
SUPPORTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION...REINFORCING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL PROVE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WITH
LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS OWING TO DRY PWAT
AIRMASS(~0.50")IN PLACE. WEAK/MODEST DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEDNEDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN
SLOWLY FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
45-50...COOLEST NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
THE ONLY REAL THING OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE
THE CHANCE OF A LIGHT FROST FOR SOME OF THE PIEDMONT BY EITHER
SUNDAY OR MONDAY MORNING WHEN LOWS MAY TANK INTO THE MID 30S.
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING IN THIS OCCURRENCE. HOWEVER... THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A "FIRST FREEZE" OR A KILLING FROST AT THIS TIME.
YET... IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF OUR COLDEST AREAS MAY TOUCH 32 SUCH
AS ROXBORO. MORE ON THIS IN LATER FORECASTS THIS WEEK.
THIS IS ACTUALLY THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TIME FOR THE FIRST LIGHT FROSTS
FOR OUR REGION.
OTHERWISE... IT SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AS
HIGHS SHOULD REACH 70-75 WITH THE SW BREEZE. SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY
AND COOL WITH HIGH 60-65 BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE "DOWN
RIGHT CHILLY" SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 SE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING UNDER THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. BY
MONDAY... HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO AROUND 60 WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD AS A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS HAS FALLEN APART
EAST OF THE MTNS.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT RANGE... WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO
25KTS RANGE...STRONGEST AT EASTERN TERMINALS (KRWI AND KFAY). WINDS
WILL DECOUPLE AND WILL NWLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SECURE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/22
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
641 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...COULD HAVE SOME BRIEF FOG BEFORE 15Z MAINLY AT KVCT
BUT ELSEWEHRE LOOKS LIKE THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PRECLUDE THIS.
COULD ALSO HAVE SOME IFR CIGS AT KALI AND KVCT BEFORE CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR BY 18Z TOPS (KLRD WILL BE VFR).
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KVCT BEFORE 15Z...THEN AFTER 15Z KCRP
(VCTS) WITH A TEMPO THUNDER AS COULD HAVE SOME ACTIVITY PROXIMATE
ENOUGH TO NEED A MENTION OF THUNDER. WILL ALSO MENTION VCTS AT
KALI AFTER 18Z...BUT NO TEMPO AS CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. GENERALLY
LIGHT NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY THEN GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT
AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY PRETTY MUCH WASHES OUT.
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT KCRP AND KALI WHERE
MOISTURE DOES NOT GET SCOURED OUT (HAVE IFR BR AFTER 14/06Z). TOO
DRY AT KLRD AND KVCT TO MENTION FOG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY...ALSO A QUESTION OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WHICH COULD BE A BIT TRICKY AS THERE LIKELY WILL BE A GOOD
GRADIENT SINCE DEW POINT SPREAD WILL BE PRETTY GOOD FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. FIRST THE RAIN CHANCES. ECMWF IS STILL ROBUST ON RAIN
CHANCES TODAY...WHILE 4 KM MODELS HAVE RECENTLY BACKED OFF A BIT
ON THE RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER MOST RECENT HRRR IS HAVING MORE
CONVECTION ON ITS 06Z RUN (ALTHOUGH IT CAN HAVE A TENDENCY TO
OVER-FORECAST RAIN). HAVE DECIDED TO GO THE DISTANCE AND PRETTY
MUCH KEEP THE POPS THAT WE HAVE GOING. RAIN MAY MAINLY BE LIGHT
AND THUNDER MAY BE LIMITED TO THE GULF WATERS WHERE THE CAP/CIN IS
WEAKEST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER MAINLY OUT WEST...AND
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIMILAR IF NOT WARMER TEMPERATURES
OVER THE EAST TODAY. HAVE DECIDED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT
BE A BIT MORE ON THE WARM SIDE WEST AND SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
EASTERN AREAS. FOR TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD EITHER BE OVER OR
SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND DID NOT MENTION ANY RAINFALL. COULD HAVE
SOME FOG OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF DEW POINTS
REMAIN HOW. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME...HAVE DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW. A GOOD RANGE OF LOW
TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS NEAR 60 OVER THE VICTORIA AREA TO MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST AND LAREDO AREA. SHOULD HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. REMAINING
WARM...WITH 90S MOST INLAND AREAS. MAY HAVE A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND
FOR A TIME TODAY BUT OVERALL BY TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION LIKELY TO GET GOING
LATER TODAY OVER THE GULF WATERS AS WEAK BOUNDARY/CONVERGENCE ZONE
MOVES IN WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LITTLE TO NO CAP IN PLACE. WINDS
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT. A GENERALLY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE ON
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
UNDER WEAK RIDGING....WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW DUE TO SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. MID LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS
THROUGH THE WEEK AS A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW ROUNDS BACK TO THE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY...SLOWLY MOVING FARTHER EAST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS AN OPEN WAVE BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO LOWERING 1000-500 THICKNESS HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE RELATIVELY COOLER INTO THE UPPER
80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK...YET STILL REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 60S DUE
TO THE DRY AIR MASS...LEADING TO GREATER DIURNAL TEMPERATURES
DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE INLAND LOCATIONS. MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES...AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT LOWS...WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 93 72 91 67 88 / 30 10 10 0 0
VICTORIA 93 58 91 61 89 / 30 0 0 0 0
LAREDO 96 73 96 69 93 / 10 10 0 0 0
ALICE 96 70 95 65 91 / 20 10 0 0 0
ROCKPORT 89 70 88 69 87 / 40 10 0 0 0
COTULLA 95 65 95 63 92 / 10 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 95 71 94 65 89 / 30 10 10 0 0
NAVY CORPUS 88 74 88 71 86 / 40 10 10 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GW/86...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
944 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 944 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPED UP THE CLEARING OR DRYING
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. HIGH RESWARW-EAST...RNK
WRFARW AND HRRR KEEP THE LINGER SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...
WETTING SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CWA DEPOSITED 3-4 TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE UPPER TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT...MARION AND
RICHLANDS BOTH HAD 0.32...GLADE SPRINGS 0.42 AND SALTVILLE 0.43.
AMOUNTS WANED QUICKLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WITH AMOUNTS
CLOSER TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE EASTERN NRV AND GBV.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING AS FRONT PASSES OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT FOOTHILLS
AND EAST WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A SPRINKLE...ENVIRONMENT NO LONGER
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY CAPE TO SUSTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SOUTH FROM AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO CANADA.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
FRONT IS COMING THROUGH FRAGMENTED...THE OVERNIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE ACTUAL CHANGE
IN AIRMASS WILL TAKE PLACE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD AND WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST. AT THAT TIME...SKIES WILL CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID-UPPER 70S. THE
COOLER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO A MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE
WILL NOT BE FELT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER IN WVA TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SLIPPING
INTO THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MEAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WEST WITH
A BROAD TROF OVER THE EAST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW BUT ALL SKIRT THE AREA AS THEY SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
KEEP US IN PERSISTENT DRY...COOL...GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO SQUEEZE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN UPSLOPE FLOW
BUT WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.
BY FRIDAY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL STILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE
SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH IN PLACE FOR LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
ANOTHER SHOT OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE USHERING IN COLDER AIR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL QUITE CHILLY INDEED FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BEFORE THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WEST OF THE RIDGE...TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S EAST. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S BUT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME READINGS DOWN TO THE 30S IN
VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT MONDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR FROST...HOWEVER...MIXING
ENOUGH TO LIMIT COVERAGE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST SATURDAY
REDUCING THE WIND AND INCREASE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE CHANCES FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IS HIGH...MODERATE OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND LOW BUT NOT ZERO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WEEKEND HIGHS
WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN FRIDAY. SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH CIGS 025-040.
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE LATER THIS MORNING WITH RETURN OF SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. CAN`T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR AT KBLF
THIS MORNING PER AREA OF STRATUS (CIGS 500-1KFT) OVER ERN KY/OH
WHICH MAY GET PUSHED UP AGAINST THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS STRATUS SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT
850 MILLIBARS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KNOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND JUST LEE OF
THE BLUE RIDGE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID WEEK
PROMOTING VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
128 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.AVIATION...
THE SEA BREEZES ARE FINALLY STARTING TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST AND
EAST COASTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TERMINAL KPBI BUT SHOULD SET
IN SOON. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
AROUND 00Z REGIONAL WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AN OFF SHORE
LAND BREEZE IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR ALL TERMINALS.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
UPDATE...
MADE VERY SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR GULF WATERS AND NAPLES METRO AREA AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN PATCHES OF
MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
REGIONAL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WEST AND EAST
COAST SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE 16-18Z TIME FRAME.
AROUND 00Z LIKELY TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SOUTH FLORIDA SITTING BENEATH THE
BASE OF A LARGE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS IS MAINTAINING A
DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH DECENT AMOUNTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT FROM LAST
EVENING`S 00Z MFL SOUNDING AT 1.52". FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE VERY LOW LEVELS AND A SLIGHT NUDGE UP OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH PWAT INCREASING TO AROUND 1.6-1.7" BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SO WITH THE LIGHT WIND FIELD, A SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT
TERM MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS. THE HRRR WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
EARLIER RUNS BUT HAS SINCE BACKED OFF ON MUCH DEVELOPMENT SO WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE MAV GUIDANCE AND JUST GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE NAM MAINTAINS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION SO THUNDER WILL REMAIN NIL.
ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS
SHOW A RETURN OF MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AS AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO EMERGE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES
NORTHWARD AND THE PWAT INCREASES TO NEAR 2". THE NAM ALSO SHOWS THE
CAP ERODING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SO POPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS FORESEEN ON THURSDAY
EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENING SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, I CAN ALSO SEE THIS FORECAST TRENDING DOWN AS
TIME GOES ON AS THESE PATTERNS ARE NEVER HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE
MODELS AND SOMETIMES ARE WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE IN THE MOISTURE
RETURN.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...
ONLY SOME SUBTLE CHANGES ARE SEEN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LARGE
SCALE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM MOVING VERY FAR TO THE NORTH AND IN FACT SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT
COULD BE SHOVED BACK TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IS FORECAST TO
BE 1035MB WHICH WILL CAUSE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY THIS WEEKEND
AS WIND REMAINS BELOW 15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS AND THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 88 74 87 / 10 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 88 76 87 / 30 40 30 30
MIAMI 75 88 77 88 / 30 40 30 30
NAPLES 73 87 74 89 / 10 30 10 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
132 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THIS MORNING. WILL
UPDATE THE POPS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. LATEST RUN
OF THE HRRR KEEPS THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH GA WILL WEAKEN BUT
CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. PRECIP/CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY...AND BY TONIGHT THE CWA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AS
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
17
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF THE SAME WAY IT FINISHES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THINGS DRY. A VERY LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVER N GA BY 00Z-06Z THU. THIS RIDGING CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE EXTENDED THROUGH DAY 7 IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS A
VERY WEAK DRY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY...BUT ALL IT BRINGS IS ANOTHER REINFORCING RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOW THROUGH DAY 7
WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S...AND DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM.
01
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE...AND SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 78 51 74 48 / 10 5 0 0
ATLANTA 78 52 74 51 / 10 5 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 75 43 68 42 / 10 5 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 79 47 74 45 / 10 5 0 0
COLUMBUS 80 52 78 50 / 70 5 0 0
GAINESVILLE 77 51 73 48 / 10 5 0 0
MACON 83 51 78 49 / 60 5 0 0
ROME 78 46 75 46 / 10 5 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 79 47 76 47 / 20 5 0 0
VIDALIA 84 56 80 53 / 70 5 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
406 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID-LVL TROUGH OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NE U.S. AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SFC...A LOW PRES SYSTEM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. COLD ADVECTION IN MOIST CYCLONIC NW
FLOW IS STILL PRODUCING ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR NW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SFC LOW SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY LIFTS QUICKLY EAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
BACKING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ALSO LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
TO END OVERNIGHT NCNTRL AND EAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO SKIRT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
WED. WEAK 700-300 MB Q-VECT CONVERGENCE FROM SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW-
LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ASSOC SFC TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE ERN THIRD OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON PER MODEL
QPF OUTPUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER
ALGER...LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING
SKIES TO RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING OVER THE WRN INTERIOR TO THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S EAST AND NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE TAIL OF TWO HALVES...WITH THE
FIRST HALF EXPERIENCING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION AND THE SECOND HALF WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL BE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST...AS
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE
AND TOWARDS LUCE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE TOO
LIMITED FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS THE COLDEST
AIR IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. A MUCH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN AND THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AMPLIFY THE TROUGH OVER THE
REGION AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT (BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH) AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL
BE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT AROUND -8C. AS THAT COLD AIR ARRIVES...SHOULD SEE LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION PICK UP THROUGH THE NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POCKETS OF DRIER AIR SLIDING THROUGH THE
AREA...BUT WITH THE OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FAIRLY STRONG (DELTA-T
VALUES OF 16-20) WILL SHOW CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THAT
TIME FOR AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AND WE CAN FINE
TUNE THE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION PERIODS AS WE GET CLOSER. AS FOR
PRECIP TYPE...EXPECT IT TO START AS RAIN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING...BUT AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES IN IT WILL
TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW (ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL) DUE TO THE WETBULB0 HEIGHTS CRASHING BELOW
700FT. WETBULB0 HEIGHTS DO TRY TO HANG ON BETWEEN 700-1300FT OVER
THE EASTERN CWA (AIDED BY THE LAKE MODIFIED AIR OFF LAKE SUPERIOR)
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THAT AREA FOR FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING TO MAINLY SNOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FORM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL LEAD TO A NICE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO
SURGE TO 10C AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND POSSIBLY A
FEW 60S OVER THE FAR WEST. MODELS HAVE CHANGED UP THE THE FORECAST
SLIGHTLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STRONG LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN CANADA AND SWEEPING A TROUGH EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THAT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY OR STAY
SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO WILL FOLLOW A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS AT
THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT
THE TAF SITES. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WINDS BACKING MORE WESTERLY WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTN AT KIWD AND THEN LATE TONIGHT AT
KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED BLO GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW
GRADIENT WEAKENS BETWEEN LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND HIGH PRES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR NW WINDS 20-30 KTS...STRONGEST EAST
HALF TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT (GENERALLY TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS)
WINDS WILL THEN BACK W-SW ON WED AND BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS
STRONGEST WEST AND NCNTRL AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA.
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION TO SEE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW IN CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR GALES WOULD BE ON THU NIGHT-FRI FOR THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPER TROUGH AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
357 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID-LVL TROUGH OVER ERN
CANADA AND THE NE U.S. AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS. THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A NW FLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SFC...A LOW PRES SYSTEM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. COLD ADVECTION IN MOIST CYCLONIC NW
FLOW IS STILL PRODUCING ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR NW WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SFC LOW SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY LIFTS QUICKLY EAST THROUGH QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
BACKING/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...ALSO LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
TO END OVERNIGHT NCNTRL AND EAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO SKIRT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
WED. WEAK 700-300 MB Q-VECT CONVERGENCE FROM SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW-
LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ASSOC SFC TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE ERN THIRD OF THE CWA WED AFTERNOON PER MODEL
QPF OUTPUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER
ALGER...LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT.
AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT UNDER CLEARING/PARTIAL CLEARING
SKIES TO RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING OVER THE WRN INTERIOR TO THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S EAST AND NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NEARBY WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY
PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERN UPPER MI...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH OF A SECOND SHORTWAVE
MOVING NEARBY THU...BUT NO MODELS SHOW ALL THAT MUCH PRECIP DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE. GENERALLY...MODEL QPF SUGGESTS SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SECOND SHORTWAVE...WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST TO BRING IT IN (GFS 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF). THE GFS HAS SHOWN GREATER CONTINUITY WITH TIMING OF THE
COLDER AIR...SO WILL DESCRIBE WHAT IT SHOWS. BY 00Z FRI...850MB
TEMPS WILL BE -1C TO -3C WITH NW WINDS. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -7C TO
-9C BY 12Z FRI AS WINDS TURN MORE NNW. THESE TEMPS STICK AROUND WITH
NNW WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF FRI NIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE NW SAT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES NEARBY AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE A DEGREE OR
TWO...ALL WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SW OF THE CWA. THE HIGH
SHIFTS E LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO SHIFT ACROSS
THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. LAKE EFFECT PRECIP WILL START
THU EVENING EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES...AND CONTINUE
INTO SAT MORNING...ENHANCED WHEN SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH AND REDUCED
SOME BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVES AS SHORTWAVE SFC RIDGING RESULTS. PRECIP
TYPE CHANGES FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W HALF THU NIGHT. PTYPE TURNS TO ALL SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL AND W FRI MORNING...WITH A MIX ELSEWHERE. PTYPE
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE FRI EVENING INTO SAT MORNING AS SFC
MIN TEMPS FALL BELOW TO WELL BELOW FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS. PTYPE
THEN TURNS BACK TO A MIX LATE SAT MORNING...THEN MOSTLY SNOW AGAIN
SAT EVENING INTO SUN MORNING. COULD SEE SOME VERY MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES.
STRONG SW FLOW BRINGS WARMER CONDITIONS FOR SUN AND MON WITH A
CHANCE FOR RAIN MON OR MON NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES NEARBY. WHILE
STILL VERY UNCERTAIN...A FRONTAL MAY STALL OUT OVER OR NEAR THE CWA
MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALLOW MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT
THE TAF SITES. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...DRIER
CONDITIONS AND WINDS BACKING MORE WESTERLY WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS AFTN AT KIWD AND THEN LATE TONIGHT AT
KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED BLO GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS NW
GRADIENT WEAKENS BETWEEN LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND HIGH PRES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR NW WINDS 20-30 KTS...STRONGEST EAST
HALF TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT (GENERALLY TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS)
WINDS WILL THEN BACK W-SW ON WED AND BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS
STRONGEST WEST AND NCNTRL AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA.
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION TO SEE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
OFF THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW IN CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW. THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR GALES WOULD BE ON THU NIGHT-FRI FOR THE EAST HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPER TROUGH AND STRONG
COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
304 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
..NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT....CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS NC FROM THE WEST...SO
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH
WITH THE FRONT. THE RAP SUGGESTS A 00Z TO 06Z FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
IT QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE SHALLOW AND COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL BE DELAYED BY THE MOUNTAINS. PREFER OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...REINFORCED BY A SHORTWAVE AND JET DIVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT....WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. A MUCH
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION...YIELD
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BASED ON THICKNESSES
AROUND 1365M. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST TOWARD THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT....WITH THE BEST DECOUPLING POTENTIAL OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...WHERE LOWS COULD APPROACH 40 IN RURAL/COOL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 303 PM TUESDAY..
POSITIVE PNA PATTERN (WESTERN NOAM RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH) THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEKEND WILL TRANSITION TO A LESS AMPLIFIED/MORE ZONAL
ONE THROUGH EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS WILL CONSEQUENTLY BACK TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE MERELY IN THE FORM OF
INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS BY TUE-WED.
THE ENTIRE PERIOD SHOULD BE A DRY ONE OWING TO THE PREVALENCE OF A
PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS --THE FIRST OF PACIFIC/MILD ORIGIN THU-FRI AND
THE SECOND OF POLAR ORIGIN SAT-ONWARD-- THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL BE
USHERED IN BY A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT SCHEDULED FOR FRI-EARLY
FRI NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO BE THE LATTER/POLAR ONE THAT WILL PROVIDE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON...AND A POSSIBLE
LIGHT FREEZE...OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...NEAR-OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND
PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES BY MON MORNING...EVEN THE
WARMEST ONES FROM RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL CYCLES...WOULD SUPPORT
LOWS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THE COLDER SOLUTIONS
WOULD SUPPORT UPPER 20S.
ANOTHER QUESTION THAT REMAINS WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE POLAR HIGH
WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...AND CONSEQUENTLY
WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL ARRIVE IN TIME TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
CALM/OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN
THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1320 METERS WOULD SUPPORT A PRECEDING
MORNING OF AOB FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN (THE TYPICALLY-COOLER AREAS
OF) THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. REGARDLESS...IT WILL NO DOUBT TURN CHILLY
(LIKELY THE COLDEST MORNING(S) SINCE APRIL 5TH)...WITH A HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE OF POTENTIALLY-DAMAGING COLD TO WARRANT A BRIEF MENTION
IN THE HWO.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT FRI...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S...FOLLOWED BY CRISP HIGHS IN THE 50S-60S SAT-TUE (COOLEST SUN-
MON).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 20-25KT (MAINLY KFAY/KRWI) WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND A RELATIVELY GENTLE WIND SHIFT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
TOWARD THE REGION.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...CBL/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
..NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT....CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS NC FROM THE WEST...SO
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH
WITH THE FRONT. THE RAP SUGGESTS A 00Z TO 06Z FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
IT QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE SHALLOW AND COOLER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS
WILL BE DELAYED BY THE MOUNTAINS. PREFER OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...REINFORCED BY A SHORTWAVE AND JET DIVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT....WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. A MUCH
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION...YIELD
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BASED ON THICKNESSES
AROUND 1365M. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST TOWARD THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT....WITH THE BEST DECOUPLING POTENTIAL OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...WHERE LOWS COULD APPROACH 40 IN RURAL/COOL AREAS.
OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
THE ONLY REAL THING OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE
THE CHANCE OF A LIGHT FROST FOR SOME OF THE PIEDMONT BY EITHER
SUNDAY OR MONDAY MORNING WHEN LOWS MAY TANK INTO THE MID 30S.
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING IN THIS OCCURRENCE. HOWEVER... THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A "FIRST FREEZE" OR A KILLING FROST AT THIS TIME.
YET... IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF OUR COLDEST AREAS MAY TOUCH 32 SUCH
AS ROXBORO. MORE ON THIS IN LATER FORECASTS THIS WEEK.
THIS IS ACTUALLY THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TIME FOR THE FIRST LIGHT FROSTS
FOR OUR REGION.
OTHERWISE... IT SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AS
HIGHS SHOULD REACH 70-75 WITH THE SW BREEZE. SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY
AND COOL WITH HIGH 60-65 BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE "DOWN
RIGHT CHILLY" SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 SE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING UNDER THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. BY
MONDAY... HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO AROUND 60 WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 20-25KT (MAINLY KFAY/KRWI) WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND A RELATIVELY GENTLE WIND SHIFT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
TOWARD THE REGION.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
..NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM TUESDAY...
THE PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED AND WE ARE JUST LEFT WITH A NARROW
BAND MID CLOUDS CROSSING THE PIEDMONT. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...60-
120M...GIVE JUST A GLANCING BLOW TODAY AS THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND PRIMARY COLD FRONT...WHICH STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL OHIO TO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AT 13Z...APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MERGING WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT...AND THEN CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WITH VERY
LITTLE DEEP MOISTURE AND MLCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG (AND FOCUSED WELL
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN)...THERE IS NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXPECTED. AS
THE BAND OF MID CLOUDS MOVES EAST...A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SHOULD GUST TO 20-25KT IN THE EAST BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS WITH HIGHS
EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST AREAS. -22
SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH POST-FRONTAL CAA
SUPPORTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S WEST TO LOW/MID 50S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION...REINFORCING THE BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL PROVE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE WITH
LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS OWING TO DRY PWAT
AIRMASS(~0.50")IN PLACE. WEAK/MODEST DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEDNEDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN
SLOWLY FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NW TO MID 70S SE. LOWS
45-50...COOLEST NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
THE ONLY REAL THING OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE
THE CHANCE OF A LIGHT FROST FOR SOME OF THE PIEDMONT BY EITHER
SUNDAY OR MONDAY MORNING WHEN LOWS MAY TANK INTO THE MID 30S.
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING IN THIS OCCURRENCE. HOWEVER... THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A "FIRST FREEZE" OR A KILLING FROST AT THIS TIME.
YET... IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF OUR COLDEST AREAS MAY TOUCH 32 SUCH
AS ROXBORO. MORE ON THIS IN LATER FORECASTS THIS WEEK.
THIS IS ACTUALLY THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TIME FOR THE FIRST LIGHT FROSTS
FOR OUR REGION.
OTHERWISE... IT SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY AS
HIGHS SHOULD REACH 70-75 WITH THE SW BREEZE. SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY
AND COOL WITH HIGH 60-65 BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE "DOWN
RIGHT CHILLY" SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 SE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING UNDER THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. BY
MONDAY... HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO AROUND 60 WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WITH SOME GUSTS UP
TO 20-25KT (MAINLY KFAY/KRWI) WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND A RELATIVELY GENTLE WIND SHIFT TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z. CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
TOWARD THE REGION.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SECURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL/22
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
142 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 944 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPED UP THE CLEARING OR DRYING
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. HIGH RESWARW-EAST...RNK
WRFARW AND HRRR KEEP THE LINGER SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...
WETTING SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CWA DEPOSITED 3-4 TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE UPPER TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT...MARION AND
RICHLANDS BOTH HAD 0.32...GLADE SPRINGS 0.42 AND SALTVILLE 0.43.
AMOUNTS WANED QUICKLY EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN DIVIDE WITH AMOUNTS
CLOSER TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE EASTERN NRV AND GBV.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS
MORNING AS FRONT PASSES OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS AS FAR EAST AS THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT FOOTHILLS
AND EAST WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE A SPRINKLE...ENVIRONMENT NO LONGER
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY CAPE TO SUSTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SOUTH FROM AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO CANADA.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
FRONT IS COMING THROUGH FRAGMENTED...THE OVERNIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE ACTUAL CHANGE
IN AIRMASS WILL TAKE PLACE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD AND WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE WEST. AT THAT TIME...SKIES WILL CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY WITH READINGS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID-UPPER 70S. THE
COOLER AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT...SO A MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE
WILL NOT BE FELT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER IN WVA TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SLIPPING
INTO THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MEAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WEST WITH
A BROAD TROF OVER THE EAST. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW BUT ALL SKIRT THE AREA AS THEY SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
KEEP US IN PERSISTENT DRY...COOL...GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OROGRAPHIC AFFECTS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO SQUEEZE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO IN UPSLOPE FLOW
BUT WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.
BY FRIDAY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL STILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT THERE
SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH IN PLACE FOR LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
ANOTHER SHOT OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE USHERING IN COLDER AIR
AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE STEADY OR FALLING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL QUITE CHILLY INDEED FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BEFORE THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WEST OF THE RIDGE...TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S EAST. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S BUT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME READINGS DOWN TO THE 30S IN
VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT MONDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR FROST...HOWEVER...MIXING
ENOUGH TO LIMIT COVERAGE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST SATURDAY
REDUCING THE WIND AND INCREASE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE CHANCES FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IS HIGH...MODERATE OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND LOW BUT NOT ZERO ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS WEEKEND HIGHS
WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN FRIDAY. SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 141 PM EDT TUESDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION WEDNESDAY. SCT TO BKN VFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THEN...OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...WINDS AND VISIBILITIES DURING
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MID WEEK
PROMOTING VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/KK
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...KK/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
600 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN ALOFT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE AIRMASS
IS GENERALLY DRY BETWEEN THE INVERSION AND 600MB...SO NO REAL THREAT
OF ANY PRECIP. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS MAKING DECENT
PROGRESS TO THE EAST OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND COULD MAKE IT INTO
PARTS OF THE ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPING AREAS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME HOLES
IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOP. AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES
EAST...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRIFT
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN
IN THE PROCESS WHILE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL INVADE FROM THE WEST.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE CLEARING TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS DEPART THE LAKE SHORE BY
EARLY OVERNIGHT...WILL HAVE A SLIGHT WEST WIND THAT SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S WEST TO
LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND ADVECT IN WARMER LOW LEVEL
AIR. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING...RAISED HIGH TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS.
A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 1033MB HIGH WILL MOVE FROM
MINNESOTA ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN TO ILLINOIS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE
REGION. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
EXPECT MVFR OR LOW-END VFR CIGS TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. BEST ESTIMATE
IS THAT THE CLEARING WILL REACH THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES BY AROUND
04Z-05Z. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN ALOFT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE AIRMASS
IS GENERALLY DRY BETWEEN THE INVERSION AND 600MB...SO NO REAL THREAT
OF ANY PRECIP. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS MAKING DECENT
PROGRESS TO THE EAST OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND COULD MAKE IT INTO
PARTS OF THE ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPING AREAS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME HOLES
IN THE OVERCAST DEVELOP. AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES
EAST...CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRIFT
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN
IN THE PROCESS WHILE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL INVADE FROM THE WEST.
AS A RESULT...SHOULD SEE CLEARING TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ONCE CLOUDS DEPART THE LAKE SHORE BY
EARLY OVERNIGHT...WILL HAVE A SLIGHT WEST WIND THAT SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S WEST TO
LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND ADVECT IN WARMER LOW LEVEL
AIR. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING...RAISED HIGH TEMPS A
DEGREE OR TWO. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS.
A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 1033MB HIGH WILL MOVE FROM
MINNESOTA ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN TO ILLINOIS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE
REGION. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE AND BAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2015
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AT
MOST LOCATIONS BASED ON STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE MORE LIKELY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THOUGH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOULD END OVER N-C WI THIS
AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BROKEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THEN CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC