Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/12/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
340 PM MST SAT OCT 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND ADJACENT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WAS CHARACTERIZED WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR...AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXTENDING SEWD INTO WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE DRY...THERE IS ENOUGH MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVENCTING NWD ACROSS SONORA MEXICO TO MERIT THE CONTINUATION OF A SILGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM TUCSON SWD/SEWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSIDERABLY MORE AGGRESSIVE VERSUS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE NOTED THAT THE UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM AND WRF-GFS DEPICTED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY AMONGST THESE SOLUTIONS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW REGARDING THE PROPSECT FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. THE 10/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF WERE ACTUALLY MORE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING LIGHT QPF/S GENERALLY SE OF TUCSON SUN. BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS...OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM TUCSON SWD/SEWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. OTHERWISE...THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST STARTING MON AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. APPEARS THAT PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MON-WED AS A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW. THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ ECMWF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW INTO THE SWRN CONUS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. IN ESSENCE...THE ECMWF MAINTAINED A CLOSED UPPER LOW STRUCTURE AND WAS SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH SLOWER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR INSTANCE...A 577 DM UPPER LOW WAS PROGGED VIA THE ECMWF TO BE CENTERED NEAR YUMA MIDDAY FRI. HOWEVER...THE GFS DEPICTED AN OPEN-WAVE STRUCTURE SYSTEM TO BE OVER ERN ARIZONA FRI AFTERNOON. THE CMC SEEMED TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...DEPICTING A NEGATIVE-TILTED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO BE OVER SRN NEVADA/SWRN ARIZONA FRI AFTERNOON. AT ANY RATE...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA POPS THUR-FRI FOLLOWED BY A SIMILAR PATTERN SAT. THUS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE THUR... THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI-SAT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPS SUN-THUR WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME TEMPS TRENDING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/00Z. EXPECT ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY SOUTH OF KTUS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND THRU THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. HOWEVER... OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST SAT OCT 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. THE BULK OF THESE CIRRIFORM CLOUDS EXTENDED FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND CLOUD TOPS WERE MAINLY WARMING DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z WERE IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...AND THESE TEMPS WERE GENERALLY 2-5 DEGS F HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE 2-4 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS THIS TIME FRI. 10/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.83 INCH WAS NEARLY 0.20 INCH LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE PROFILE WAS MARKEDLY DRIER IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER VERSUS FRI MORNING. 10/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SW OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 25N/116W...AND A 592 DM HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. MODERATE ELY/SELY FLOW PREVAILED ALOFT ACROSS SE ARIZONA. 10/12Z NAM/GFS AND SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING LIGHT QPF/S TO OCCUR MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE HUACHUCA/PATAGONIA/SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEPICTING LIGHT QPF/S TO EXTEND FURTHER NWWD INTO THE TUCSON METRO AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM DEPICTED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING. AT ANY RATE...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED POPS BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST POPS...GENERALLY 20-30 PERCENT...WILL BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SW COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EXISTS LATE TONIGHT GENERALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 4-8 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS FRI. && .PREV DISCUSSION /230 AM MST/...RIDGING ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US...MEANWHILE THE CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK WESTWARD OVER BAJA. SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES THIS MORNING WITH THE RESULT BEING GUSTY EAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE ON UP. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER TO THE WEST. WINDS WILL BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER THE MORNING HOURS. SOUNDING DATA ALONG WITH SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INDICATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES IN PLACE. WITH MID LEVEL FLOW FAVORING AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THE EXPECTATION IS THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IMPINGING FROM THE NORTH OVERALL INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE. IN OTHER WORDS...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM GRIP ON THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS. LOWER 90S WILL GIVE WAY TO MID TO UPPER 90S BY MID WEEK. OUR CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO LOOP BACK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES BY LATE WEEK USHERING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING AND LOCATION OF BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW INVOLVED...BUT THE TREND WILL BE COOLER AND WETTER NONETHELESS. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/18Z. EXPECT ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY SOUTH OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL AND SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY ELY AT 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY LIGHT GENERALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
917 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 908 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 COLD FRONT HAS PASSED TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. RUC CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE STRONGEST DOWNSLOPE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z THIS EVENING...WILL TRY TO ADJUST THE GRIDS IN ZONES 35 AND 36 TO REFLECT THIS. NOT MUCH CLOUDINESS BEHIND THE FRONT AND LITTLE REFLECTED IN THE SPATIAL CROSS SECTIONS SO MOSTLY CLEAR THE REST OF TONIGHT. GUSTY WLY WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND SHIFT TO EASTERLY 05-06Z AS THE FRONT BACKS INTO THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE NORTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL RACE EASTWARD THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER NORTHERN COLORADO WILL DECREASE AS THE AIRMASS DECOUPLES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. BY MONDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 MODELS KEEP UPPER RIDGING AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS SHOW BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA ALL FIVE PERIODS. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTENS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIODS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE NOTED. THERE IS NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON THE QPF FIELD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO POPS. FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-1 C COOLER THAN TUESDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE CWA INTO SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS LACKING THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT DOES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH SOME MINOR POPS THOSE TWO DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 908 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH NO RESTRICTIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WESTERLY WINDS TO DECREASE BY 05Z AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT BY MONDAY MORNING AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...COOPER SHORT TERM...MEIER LONG TERM...RJK AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1113 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015 ...NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND... ANOTHER PLEASANT FALL DAY ACROSS SE CO. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A BROAD AND FLAT LEE TROUGH BUILDING E OF THE MTS. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW OVER SRN WY AND UT MOVES THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER ERN CO. SOME CU BUILD-UP CURRENTLY OVER THE SAN JUANS AND LA GARITAS...SO WILL LEAVE LOW POPS INTACT FOR THE SW MTS THIS EVE AS THIS AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLD SHOWER...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP AT THIS TIME. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER EL PASO THIS EVE...BUT NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CU IN THAT AREA RIGHT NOW SO WILL LEAVE POPS SILENT OVER PIKES PEAK AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ONCE THE WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH THIS EVE SHOULD SEE ALL BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...CLEARING THE WAY FOR A DRY AND WARM SATURDAY. TOMORROW...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR BUILDUPS POSSIBLY OVER THE SW MTS...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY EVEN OVER THE MTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. WITH H7 TEMPS CLIMBING TO 13 OR 14 DEG C OVER THE PLAINS...WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH FORECAST MAX TFOR KCOS AND KPUB OF 82 AND 87 RESPECTIVELY...AND RECORD MAX TEMPS OF 84 AND 89 FOR THE SAME SITES. WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT WITH NO STRONG DOWN-SLOPE EXPECTED...SO FEEL TI WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK THE RECORD HIGHS TOMORROW...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE...AND VERY WARM WITH MAX TEMPS A GOOD 15 DEG OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE TOMORROW. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE START OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. ROSE .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015 WITH A FLAT UPR RIDGE OVERHEAD ON SUN AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE FLOW...DRY AND WARM WEATHER WL CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPS ON SUN ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN PLAINS...AND AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE HIGH VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO REACHING RECORD HIGHS. SUN NIGHT AS AN UPR TROF MOVES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES...A FRONT WL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SERN CO. THIS FRONT WL BRING A BIG COOL DOWN FOR MON...BUT THE HIGH TEMPS WL STILL BE AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. DRY CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE ON MON. AN UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVR AZ AND THE GREAT BASIN TUE AND WED...AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVR NM AND CO FOR THU AS AN UPR TROF MOVES OVR SRN CA. A WEAK SFC FRONT MAY BACK INTO ERN CO EARLY THU. THIS UPR RIDGE WL KEEP DRY AIR OVR THE AREA TUE THRU THU. ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT ON THU WL LIKELY BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM TUE AND WED. ON FRI...THE UPR TROF THAT WAS OVR CA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AZ AND NV AND MAY PUSH A LITTLE MOISTURE INTO CO. AS A RESULT...THERE COULD BE A FEW MOUNTAINS SHOWERS/TSTMS ON FRI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS OVER SRN CO. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROSE LONG TERM...28 AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
703 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 703 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 EXPIRED RED FLAG WARNING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FROPA WITH STEEP PRESSURE RISES. AT THIS TIME GUSTS 30-40 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT THEN TRANSITIONS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY. DUE TO A DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES COME ACROSS THE FA IN THE FLOW. SOME LIFT IS INDICATED BUT ADEQUATE MOISTURE IS LACKING. CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW. CONSEQUENTLY, POPS WILL BE NIL FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S. IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST IN EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. SATURDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO THE UPPER 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S THURSDAY TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND THEN BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FEW HOURS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 THIS AFTERNOON...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING WITHIN A VERY DRY AIR MASS ASS HAVE LED TO RH VALUES DROPPING TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS OUR CWA. WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA AND MAIN LOW AND MID LEVEL JET AXIS REMAINING NORTH HAS RESULTED N WINDS REMAINING BELOW RFW CRITERIA. AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD STILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA...SO THERE SHOULD STILL BE A WINDOW FOR 25 MPH BEFORE SUNSET IN SW NEBRASKA/NE COLORADO. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT RFW AT THIS TIME. MONDAY...VERY LOW TD VALUES WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR CWA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH VALUES IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S. UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT WILL BE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...SO WHILE THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON COULD SEE GUSTS 20-30 MPH THERE WILL ONLY BE A SMALL WINDOW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN CWA FOR 25 MPH/LOWER RH VALUES. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION AND UNCERTAINTY OF 3HR OF RFW CONDITIONS. WITH ONGOING RFW AND LOW CONFIDENCE THE DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF WATCH DURING THIS UPDATE CYCLE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...024 SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...024 FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
518 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FROPA WITH STEEP PRESSURE RISES. AT THIS TIME GUSTS 30-40 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT THEN TRANSITIONS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY. DUE TO A DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES COME ACROSS THE FA IN THE FLOW. SOME LIFT IS INDICATED BUT ADEQUATE MOISTURE IS LACKING. CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW. CONSEQUENTLY, POPS WILL BE NIL FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S. IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST IN EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. SATURDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO THE UPPER 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S THURSDAY TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND THEN BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A FEW HOURS OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 THIS AFTERNOON...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING WITHIN A VERY DRY AIR MASS ASS HAVE LED TO RH VALUES DROPPING TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS OUR CWA. WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA AND MAIN LOW AND MID LEVEL JET AXIS REMAINING NORTH HAS RESULTED N WINDS REMAINING BELOW RFW CRITERIA. AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD STILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA...SO THERE SHOULD STILL BE A WINDOW FOR 25 MPH BEFORE SUNSET IN SW NEBRASKA/NE COLORADO. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT RFW AT THIS TIME. MONDAY...VERY LOW TD VALUES WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR CWA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH VALUES IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S. UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT WILL BE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...SO WHILE THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON COULD SEE GUSTS 20-30 MPH THERE WILL ONLY BE A SMALL WINDOW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN CWA FOR 25 MPH/LOWER RH VALUES. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION AND UNCERTAINTY OF 3HR OF RFW CONDITIONS. WITH ONGOING RFW AND LOW CONFIDENCE THE DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF WATCH DURING THIS UPDATE CYCLE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252. NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...024 FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO ACROSS EH SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PASSING HIGH CLOUD COVER. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. TONIGHT-SUNDAY...RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO WESTERLY FLOW AS STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA...WITH INCREASING WAA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRIMARY CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION) AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE DAILY RECORD HIGHS BROKEN ACROSS OUR CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS HIGHS 90-95F...WHICH COULD STILL PLACE A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN RANGE OF MONTHLY RECORDS. WARMER END OF GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS HIGHS 95 (GOODLAND) TO 100F (MCCOOK) WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE MONTHLY RECORDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA. WHILE MIXING SHOULD BE VERY DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...TEMPS ALOFT SEEM TO SUPPORT THE LOWER END OF THIS SPECTRUM AND MODEL CONSENSUS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015 UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST MONDAY, FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT EVEN THROUGH DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH ARE NEARBY. THERE IS SIMPLY A LACK OF MOISTURE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS LACK OF MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE NIL. MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA. MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S. IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA WEST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S DURING THIS TIME. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015 VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. WITH SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEAR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK PREVAILING WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12KT. THERE WILL BE A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM SW TO THE WEST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. IF TD TRENDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE ANY INDICATION WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE EVEN WARMER. THE BIGGEST QUESTION REGARDING POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE WINDS...WITH PEAK WINDS ALOFT STILL NORTH OF OUR CWA. GFS HAS TRENDED HIGHER AND MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34. NAM AND OTHER GUIDANCE ON THE OTHER HAND SUPPORTS WHAT WOULD BE INFREQUENT WIND GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT PEAK WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER. THIS IS A VERY NARROW WINDOW IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA...AND 3HR OCCURRENCE IS IN DOUBT. I DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE DUE TO THE MARGINAL WIND CONDITIONS. MONDAY...DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET CRITERIA EXCEPT IN THE MORNING OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHEN RH VALUES WILL HIGHER. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES GO LOWER BUT SPEEDS THEN WILL EVEN BE LOWER. LATER SHIFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER FOR MONDAY. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015 RECORDS FOR SATURDAY GOODLAND.....90 SET IN 1920 TRIBUNE......91 SET IN 1920 BURLINGTON...90 SET IN 1962 YUMA.........87 SET IN 1962 RECORDS FOR SUNDAY GOODLAND.....93 SET IN 1996 (MONTHLY RECORD 96 IN 1926) COLBY........90 SET IN 1955 (MONTHLY RECORD 97 IN 2000) TRIBUNE......90 SET IN 1975 (MONTHLY RECORD 95 IN 2007) HILL CITY....94 SET IN 1975 BURLINGTON...90 SET IN 1996 (MONTHLY RECORD 93 IN 2007) YUMA.........86 SET IN 1989 MCCOOK.......90 SET IN 1962 (MONTHLY RECORD 98 IN 1928) FORECAST FOR SUNDAY GOODLAND.....91 COLBY........94 TRIBUNE......92 HILL CITY....96 BURLINGTON...90 YUMA.........89 MCCOOK.......95 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...DR FIRE WEATHER...DR/FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
135 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS IS AIDING IN KEEPING A THICK DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GA/SC. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GRIDS MAINLY JUST MAINTENANCE ON THE TEMPS...DEWS...WINDS..AND SKY WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 THE RAIN HAS DEPARTED THE AREA AND WITH THE FOG QUITE LIMITED HAVE UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE WX GRIDS. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF ZFP UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THIS IS TAKING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA ALONG WITH ITS PASSAGE. POST FRONTAL COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS SEEPING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY ON LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS IN THE OBS AND ON WEB CAMS OF SOME FOG STARTING TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS...BUT NOT MUCH...SO FAR. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. ATTENTION IS THEN DRAWN TO A DEVELOPING STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THAT EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR FORECAST DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH BY MID MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING BY AFTERNOON. THE CHANGE OF AIR MASSES TODAY WILL MEAN COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES WILL LIKELY PROVIDE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ALONG WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING BY DAWN. LOOK FOR A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COLDEST VALLEYS MAY SEE READINGS DOWN AROUND 40 DEGREES OR EVEN INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...SHOULD THE SKIES STAY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME RELATIVE ELEVATION BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ADDRESSING THE RIDGE AND VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WITH NEAR ZERO VALUES THEREAFTER...ALSO IN LINE WITH MOS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN ELONGATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH A WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS CANADIAN BORDER. THE RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...AS AN ILL DEFINED AND FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE SURFACE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE FORECAST ISSUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT TO INTERACT WITH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS MODEL KEEPS EASTERN KENTUCKY ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEING THE ONLY INDICATION THAT THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEPS THINGS DRY AT FIRST...BUT THEN PRODUCES A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED TO USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL DATA TO CREATE THE POP FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS BLEND PRODUCED A MAX POP OF 30 PERCENT AND HAS EASTERN KENTUCKY RAIN FREE BY 15Z ON TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE ON TRACK TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. A CANADIAN AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTER A NEAR NORMAL DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED...A STEADY COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. DAILY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. LOWS MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MIN READINGS AROUND 50 ON TAP. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 CONTINUING TO HOLD ON TO SOME STRATUS ACROSS ABOUT HALF OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BEEN BROUGHT ON BY A SLOW SE MOVING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ON TO SOME MVFR MANY OF THE SITES THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD LIFT AND MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. AFTER THIS MOSTLY SUNNY AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY INTO A PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THE TRICKY ASPECT OF THE FORECAST WILL FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. RIGHT NOW OPTED TO AT LEAST GIVE ALL IFR WITH AIRPORT MINS MET AT BOTH LOZ AND SME. THIS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT BY AROUND 15Z SUNDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1108 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS IS AIDING IN KEEPING A THICK DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY. THESE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GA/SC. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GRIDS MAINLY JUST MAINTENANCE ON THE TEMPS...DEWS...WINDS..AND SKY WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 THE RAIN HAS DEPARTED THE AREA AND WITH THE FOG QUITE LIMITED HAVE UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE WX GRIDS. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF ZFP UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THIS IS TAKING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA ALONG WITH ITS PASSAGE. POST FRONTAL COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS SEEPING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY ON LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS IN THE OBS AND ON WEB CAMS OF SOME FOG STARTING TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS...BUT NOT MUCH...SO FAR. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. ATTENTION IS THEN DRAWN TO A DEVELOPING STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THAT EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR FORECAST DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH BY MID MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING BY AFTERNOON. THE CHANGE OF AIR MASSES TODAY WILL MEAN COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES WILL LIKELY PROVIDE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ALONG WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING BY DAWN. LOOK FOR A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COLDEST VALLEYS MAY SEE READINGS DOWN AROUND 40 DEGREES OR EVEN INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...SHOULD THE SKIES STAY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME RELATIVE ELEVATION BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ADDRESSING THE RIDGE AND VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WITH NEAR ZERO VALUES THEREAFTER...ALSO IN LINE WITH MOS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN ELONGATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH A WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS CANADIAN BORDER. THE RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...AS AN ILL DEFINED AND FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE SURFACE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE FORECAST ISSUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT TO INTERACT WITH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS MODEL KEEPS EASTERN KENTUCKY ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEING THE ONLY INDICATION THAT THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEPS THINGS DRY AT FIRST...BUT THEN PRODUCES A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED TO USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL DATA TO CREATE THE POP FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS BLEND PRODUCED A MAX POP OF 30 PERCENT AND HAS EASTERN KENTUCKY RAIN FREE BY 15Z ON TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE ON TRACK TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. A CANADIAN AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTER A NEAR NORMAL DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED...A STEADY COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. DAILY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. LOWS MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MIN READINGS AROUND 50 ON TAP. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 MVFR CIGS AT A FEW SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT THE SITES LATER TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DRYING TAKES PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...DO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 THE RAIN HAS DEPARTED THE AREA AND WITH THE FOG QUITE LIMITED HAVE UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE WX GRIDS. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF ZFP UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THIS IS TAKING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA ALONG WITH ITS PASSAGE. POST FRONTAL COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS SEEPING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY ON LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS IN THE OBS AND ON WEB CAMS OF SOME FOG STARTING TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS...BUT NOT MUCH...SO FAR. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. ATTENTION IS THEN DRAWN TO A DEVELOPING STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THAT EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR FORECAST DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH BY MID MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING BY AFTERNOON. THE CHANGE OF AIR MASSES TODAY WILL MEAN COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES WILL LIKELY PROVIDE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ALONG WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING BY DAWN. LOOK FOR A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COLDEST VALLEYS MAY SEE READINGS DOWN AROUND 40 DEGREES OR EVEN INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...SHOULD THE SKIES STAY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME RELATIVE ELEVATION BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ADDRESSING THE RIDGE AND VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WITH NEAR ZERO VALUES THEREAFTER...ALSO IN LINE WITH MOS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN ELONGATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH A WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS CANADIAN BORDER. THE RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...AS AN ILL DEFINED AND FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE SURFACE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE FORECAST ISSUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT TO INTERACT WITH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS MODEL KEEPS EASTERN KENTUCKY ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEING THE ONLY INDICATION THAT THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEPS THINGS DRY AT FIRST...BUT THEN PRODUCES A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED TO USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL DATA TO CREATE THE POP FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS BLEND PRODUCED A MAX POP OF 30 PERCENT AND HAS EASTERN KENTUCKY RAIN FREE BY 15Z ON TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE ON TRACK TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. A CANADIAN AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTER A NEAR NORMAL DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED...A STEADY COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. DAILY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. LOWS MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MIN READINGS AROUND 50 ON TAP. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 MVFR CIGS AT A FEW SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT THE SITES LATER TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DRYING TAKES PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...DO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
345 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THIS IS TAKING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA ALONG WITH ITS PASSAGE. POST FRONTAL COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS SEEPING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY ON LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS IN THE OBS AND ON WEB CAMS OF SOME FOG STARTING TO FORM IN THE VALLEYS...BUT NOT MUCH...SO FAR. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. ATTENTION IS THEN DRAWN TO A DEVELOPING STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THAT EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR FORECAST DETAILS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH BY MID MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING BY AFTERNOON. THE CHANGE OF AIR MASSES TODAY WILL MEAN COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES WILL LIKELY PROVIDE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ALONG WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING BY DAWN. LOOK FOR A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COLDEST VALLEYS MAY SEE READINGS DOWN AROUND 40 DEGREES OR EVEN INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...SHOULD THE SKIES STAY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME RELATIVE ELEVATION BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ADDRESSING THE RIDGE AND VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WITH NEAR ZERO VALUES THEREAFTER...ALSO IN LINE WITH MOS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN ELONGATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH A WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS CANADIAN BORDER. THE RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...AS AN ILL DEFINED AND FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE SURFACE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE FORECAST ISSUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT TO INTERACT WITH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS MODEL KEEPS EASTERN KENTUCKY ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEING THE ONLY INDICATION THAT THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEPS THINGS DRY AT FIRST...BUT THEN PRODUCES A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED TO USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL DATA TO CREATE THE POP FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS BLEND PRODUCED A MAX POP OF 30 PERCENT AND HAS EASTERN KENTUCKY RAIN FREE BY 15Z ON TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE ON TRACK TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. A CANADIAN AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTER A NEAR NORMAL DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED...A STEADY COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. DAILY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. LOWS MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MIN READINGS AROUND 50 ON TAP. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 LOOK FOR THE CIGS TO GENERALLY LOWER AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS A CIGS LOWER AND SOME FOG DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE COOLER AIR MASS POURING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTH THROUGH DAWN. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
753 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA ON THE NRN FLANK OF UPR RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE PLAINS. AT THE LLVLS...PERSISTENT WSW FLOW BTWN HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND AREA OF LO PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA IS ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AIRMASS/AREA OF H85 TEMPS AOA 20C OVER MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL CONUS INTO THE UPR LKS. THE COMBINATION OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND THE UNSEASONABLE H85 WARMTH IS RESULTING IN SOME RECORD/NEAR RECORD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN THE 80S THIS AFTN AWAY FM LK MI MODERATION. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A POTENT SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...RESULTING IN 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 150M AND SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40-50 KTS OVER MONTANA. MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON FCST SURGE OF LLVL MSTR SHOWN BY SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS INTO THE UPR LKS TNGT AHEAD OF COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV TO THE W AND THEN POPS/WINDS ON MON AS POTENT SHRTWV NOW APRCHG THE NRN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPR LKS. TNGT...THIS EVNG WL BE MOCLR WITH WARM AND DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING. BUT OVERNGT AS UPR SHRTWV MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND INTO NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z...ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO SWING THRU THE WRN CWA AND REACH THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 12Z. DESPITE 12HR H5 HGT FALLS FCST UP 150-200M AND A BAND OF DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE FROPA WL BE A DRY ONE GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MSTR INFLOW. BUT SEVERAL OF THE SHORTER TERM MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM...INDICATE STRENGTHENING LLVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WL ADVECT MORE LLVL MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS AND BRING SOME LO CLDS. CONSIDERING THE WARMTH/DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS AND STEADY WINDS THAT WOULD RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL/INCRS IN NEAR SFC RH...FAVOR THE DRIER MODEL SCENARIOS THAT SHOW LOWER NEAR SFC RH/LESS IN THE WAY OF LO CLDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...W WINDS COULD GUST AS HI AS 25 TO 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH INCRSG CAA/ INSTABILITY. MON...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE SHRTWV AS A SECOND JET STREAK CORE DIGS INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY AND AMPLIFIES THE ACCOMPANYING UPR TROFFING. THIS JET CORE ALSO HAS RESULTED IN A SHARPER TRAILING SECOND SFC COLD FNT IN MN...WITH THE RESULT A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER SFC WINDS OVER UPR MI UNTIL THAT SECOND FNT/TROF PASSES LATE ON MON OR EVEN MON EVNG. SINCE THE LLVL WINDS WL BE WEAKER AND MORE BACKED TO THE SW AND H85 TEMPS DO NOT FALL AS QUICKLY WITH A HINT OF AN H85 THERMAL RDG AHEAD OF THE SECOND FNT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY...WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LESS EXPOSED KEWEENAW WL BE WEAKER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN. FOR THIS REASON...DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVY FOR THAT AREA UNTIL 00Z TUE. DRY SLOTTING FOLLOWING THE MRNG COLD FROPA WL GRDLY GIVE WAY TO MORE CLDS AS AREA OF HIER RH WITHIN DEEP CYC FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF CLOSED LO TRACKING THRU ONTARIO OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HI CHC/LIKELY POPS WL RETURN OVER THE W DURING THE AFTN WITH THE CORE OF THE DEEPER MSTR IN ADVANCE OF THE TRAILING SECOND COLD FNT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE MUCH LOWER THAN TDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKWASH MSTR/CLDS WL ARRIVE EARLIER FOLLOWING THE DRY SLOTTING...MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S WL STILL BE ABV NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 ...STRONGEST WINDS DELAYED BUT STILL WINDY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVING ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS PROGRESSIVE ATTM...BUT SYSTEM SLOWS CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS STRONGER JET STREAK AT H25 DIGS FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAJORITY OF MODELS HAVE LATCHED ON TO THIS MUCH SLOWER TREND WHICH DELAYS STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RESULTING ONSET OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR UNTIL MONDAY EVENING AT THE EARLIEST. NO REAL CHANGE TO EXPECTED STRENGTH OF WINDS...JUST THE TIMING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 3-8C /LOWEST WEST/ AT 21Z ON MONDAY DOWN TO -2C TO 3C /LOWEST EAST/ AT 21Z ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH WINDS OF 35-45 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN GALES OVER LK SUPERIOR AND WINDS NEARING ADVISORY LEVEL AT SHORELINE AREAS OF KEWEENAW AND EVENTUALLY OVER ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES. STRONGEST WINDS ON KEWEENAW WOULD BE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE EAST CWA WOULD NOT SEE STRONGER WINDS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT LASTING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING. COORD WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER TO DELAY START OF WIND ADVISORY ON KEWEENAW 00Z TUE THROUGH 12Z TUE. GIVEN SLOWER TREND WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LINGERED HIGHER POPS LONGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS STILL FEATURED OVER EAST CWA ALONG TRACK OF SMALLER SHORTWAVE CROSSING LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO JUST AHEAD OF SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING. HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST INTERIOR SHOULD ALSO SEE THE MOST SHOWERS AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS WITH NNW WINDS PROVIDING UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THERE IS SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY AS DELTA T/S ARE OVER 8C. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMES MUCH SHALLOWER BY 12Z SO IT WILL TURN INTO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT SETUP. H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C OR AS LOW AS -2C WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN LEFTOVER CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH IN WAY OF RAIN. MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE FINISHED UP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. THERMAL TROUGH STILL IN THE AREA AND WINDS COMING OFF LK SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE LOW-MID 50S SCNTRL. REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMINATED BY SERIES OF TROUGHS DROPPING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WED INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS TROUGH ALOFT PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST FORCING AND LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN. SOUNDINGS SHOWED FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERY. TEMPS MAY BOUNCE BACK SOME COMPARED TO THE TUE CHILL...BUT READINGS IN THE AFTN COULD FALL A FEW DEGREES NEAR LK SUPERIOR ONCE WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE. SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER THROUGH THU IN STEADY NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THU PM INTO THU NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR MORE ROBUST IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. 12Z GFS IS BACK TO SHOWING ARRIVAL ON FRIDAY WHILE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. KEPT MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT INLAND FROM GREAT LAKES WHEN THERE IS AT LEAST SOME AGREEMENT THAT IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT. IF COLDER GFS WOULD VERIFY FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...APPEARS THAT SUB H85 LAYER IS STILL TOO WARM ENOUGH WITH WBZERO ABOVE 1KFT TO SUPPORT ADDING ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX ATTM. TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES IN THE AFTN ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. LOW-MID 40S WILL BE COMMON NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TROUGHING ALOFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST BY NEXT SUNDAY TO END PRECIP CHANCES AND RESULT IN SLIGHT WARMING TREND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 UNDER RELATIVELY DRY SW FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE EVENING. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING/RADIATION INVERSION WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LLWS TONIGHT UNTIL FROPA...WHICH WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON MORNING. THERE ARE HINTS SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT DRYNESS OF UPSTREAM AIR MASS SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL IS QUITE LOW. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON MON...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL WHERE GUSTS MAY TOP OUT AROUND 30KT LATE IN THE AFTN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTN...BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO KIWD/KCMX AND PROBABLY SOME -SHRA AS WELL IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE W LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SINCE THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL A ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER LAKES LATE MON/MON NIGHT... HAVE TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF THE GALE WARNINGS ISSUED EARLIER. SINCE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ENHANCE THE WSW WIND BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TO AT LEAST NEAR GALE FORCE...ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE TIMING WERE MADE FOR THAT AREA. SINCE THE PROGRESSION TO THE E OF THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STRONGER NW WINDS HAS SLOWED...EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIMES FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL WEAKER GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HI PRES RIDGE ARRIVES W-E ON TUE. WEAKER W TO NW WINDS UNDER 25 KTS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU WED. A PAIR OF LO PRES TROUGHS WILL PASS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT RIGHT NOW THE PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TROUGHS LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO HOLD WINDS UNDER 25 KTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ001- 003. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267. GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266. GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ248-265. GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ243>245-264. GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ246-247. GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263. GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248- 250. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
428 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOME TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...THERE IS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BTWN SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM THE OH RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LO PRES CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA. DESPITE STRONG WINDS UNDER THIS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NOT FAR ABOVE THE SFC AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB...WHERE SW WINDS WERE AS HI AS 50 KTS AT 3K FT AGL...SHARP WAA IN THIS FLOW THAT IS FCST TO INCRS H85 TEMPS ABOUT 10C THRU THE DAY BUT RELATIVELY SLOW NEAR SFC WARMING LIMITED BY LOWERING SUN ANGLE AND INFLUX OF HI CLDS HAVE KEPT LLVL STABILITY RELATIVELY HI AND LIMITED DEEP MIXING/SFC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF HI CLD SPILLING INTO THE AREA...VERY DRY AIR BTWN H85 AND ABOUT H5 AS SHOWN ON THE UPSTREAM MPX AND GRB RAOBS HAS LIMITED THE COVERAGE OF ANY LOWER CLD. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WINDS AND TEMPS AS RELATIVELY DRY SW FLOW WL PERSIST THRU SUN. TNGT...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/RIBBON OF H925 SW WINDS UP TO 35-40 KTS ARE FCST TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVNG BEFORE RELAXING OVERNGT AS SFC HI PRES RDG TO THE SE SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. SO ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG WHEN SFC TEMPS ARE HIER/ LLVL INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT GREATER WL DIMINISH THRU THE NGT WITH THE SLACKENING GRADIENT/DIURNAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER WINDS WL DIMINISH...SUSPECT THE SW FLOW WL REMAIN STEADY ENUF IN THE WARM SECTOR TO LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING DESPITE A FORECAST GRADUAL DECREASE IN HI LVL RH/HI CLDS. SO ALTHOUGH THE COOLER SPOTS WL SEE TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPR 40S...READINGS WL HOLD IN THE 50S AT MANY PLACES. EXPECT THE HIEST MIN TEMPS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. SUN...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIRMASS UNDER INCOMING UPR RDG AXIS...EXPECT A MOSUNNY DAY WITH PERSISTENT LLVL SW FLOW. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK AOA 20C...WHICH WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S AT MOST PLACES AWAY FM MODERATION OFF LK MI. THE DOWNSLOPE WARM SPOTS OVER THE W MAY SEE THE MERCURY REACH AOA 80. THE RECORD HI MAX TEMP FOR THE MARQUETTE NWS IS 77 TMRW. SOME NEW DAILY RECORDS MAY BE ESTABLISHED. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO BE MUCH WEAKER TMRW...SO WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE UNDER 20 MPH OR SO DESPITE THE HIER SFC TEMPS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 ...STRONG WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR... ATTN SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE ON DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS MANITOBA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING MID CLOUDS BUT LOW-LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. A VERY WARM NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AND MAYBE STAYING ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE 50S...SO THAT PUTS A LITTLE PERSPECTIVE ON THESE TEMPERATURES. WRAPPED UP TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS ARE OVER 200M BY TIME TROUGH CROSSES ON MONDAY. SFC LOW DOWN TO 980MB AT 12Z MONDAY NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR LIFTS EAST TO JAMES BAY BY 00Z TUESDAY. COLD CONVEYOR/WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AT H85-H7 ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION /H85 TEMPS AT 12Z MONDAY +8C OVER WESTERN U.P. FALLING TO 0C BY 21Z/ SHOULD SUPPORT BLOSSOMING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE WEST TO NCNTRL CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. BIGGER STORY APPEARS TO BE WINDS THOUGH. INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE SFC LOW /14MB GRADIENT LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/ WILL COINCIDE WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RAPIDLY INCREASING 950MB-850MB WINDS...REACHING 40-45 KTS IN THOSE LAYERS 21Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD PORTION OF THOSE WINDS MIXING TO SFC DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. NW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. SHORELINE AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND OVER ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES LIKELY WILL NEED WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THINK STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND OVER THE CWA. STRONGER WINDS INLAND WOULD BE MONDAY EVENING DURING PEAK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER MUCH OF EAST CWA WITH LESS INTERRUPTION OF WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR. WINDS DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY BY TUESDAY MORNING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW LIFTING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND WITH WEAK SFC RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SERIES OF TROUGHS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE OVER FAR WESTERN CONUS. WEAKER SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT BY THE END OF THE WEEK THERE IS HINT OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH AND ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT TIMING OF COLDEST AIR ARRIVING IS STILL IN DEBATE WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING AT THIS POINT. GFS SHOWS H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -10C BY FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS COLD FRIDAY BUT DOES BRINGS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -8C BY SATURDAY. WHETHER OR NOT FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE SEEN WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLDEST AIR AND HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE IS AROUND AS THIS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE LEAST...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PROBABLY WILL SEE GRAUPEL IN THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AS WELL. DAYTIME TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL STAY IN THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 EXPECT GUSTY WINDS INTO THIS EVNG UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES STRETCHING FM THE OH RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LO PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA. WITH SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING DURING THE EVNG... THE WIND GUSTS WL DIMINISH AND ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LLWS BEFORE THE PRES GRADIENT/WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVRN WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO END THE LLWS THREAT OVERNGT. SINCE THE SW FLOW WL BE TAPPING DRY AIR...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES DESPITE SOME HI CLDS INTO THIS EVNG. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 STRONG SW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS UNDER A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING HI PRES RIDGE TO THE SE AND FALLING PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. BUT AS THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THRU THE NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN/SUN NIGHT AND BRING SW WINDS UNDER 20 KTS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP LOW PRES THROUGH THROUGH ONTARIO ON MON...STRONG W WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL THROUGH MON NIGHT WHILE VEERING TO THE NW. SINCE COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS...INCREASED MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD GALES THAT WILL REACH 40-45 KTS. OPTED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR MON INTO TUE MORNING TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. TRAILING HI PRES WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS FOR TUE INTO WED. AFTER ANOTHER TROF PASSES ON WED...EXPECT NW WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS INTO THU. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LSZ266-267. GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ162-263. GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LSZ264. GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LSZ265. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
329 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOME TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...THERE IS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BTWN SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM THE OH RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LO PRES CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA. DESPITE STRONG WINDS UNDER THIS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NOT FAR ABOVE THE SFC AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB...WHERE SW WINDS WERE AS HI AS 50 KTS AT 3K FT AGL...SHARP WAA IN THIS FLOW THAT IS FCST TO INCRS H85 TEMPS ABOUT 10C THRU THE DAY BUT RELATIVELY SLOW NEAR SFC WARMING LIMITED BY LOWERING SUN ANGLE AND INFLUX OF HI CLDS HAVE KEPT LLVL STABILITY RELATIVELY HI AND LIMITED DEEP MIXING/SFC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF HI CLD SPILLING INTO THE AREA...VERY DRY AIR BTWN H85 AND ABOUT H5 AS SHOWN ON THE UPSTREAM MPX AND GRB RAOBS HAS LIMITED THE COVERAGE OF ANY LOWER CLD. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WINDS AND TEMPS AS RELATIVELY DRY SW FLOW WL PERSIST THRU SUN. TNGT...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/RIBBON OF H925 SW WINDS UP TO 35-40 KTS ARE FCST TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVNG BEFORE RELAXING OVERNGT AS SFC HI PRES RDG TO THE SE SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. SO ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG WHEN SFC TEMPS ARE HIER/ LLVL INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT GREATER WL DIMINISH THRU THE NGT WITH THE SLACKENING GRADIENT/DIURNAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER WINDS WL DIMINISH...SUSPECT THE SW FLOW WL REMAIN STEADY ENUF IN THE WARM SECTOR TO LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING DESPITE A FORECAST GRADUAL DECREASE IN HI LVL RH/HI CLDS. SO ALTHOUGH THE COOLER SPOTS WL SEE TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPR 40S...READINGS WL HOLD IN THE 50S AT MANY PLACES. EXPECT THE HIEST MIN TEMPS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. SUN...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIRMASS UNDER INCOMING UPR RDG AXIS...EXPECT A MOSUNNY DAY WITH PERSISTENT LLVL SW FLOW. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK AOA 20C...WHICH WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S AT MOST PLACES AWAY FM MODERATION OFF LK MI. THE DOWNSLOPE WARM SPOTS OVER THE W MAY SEE THE MERCURY REACH AOA 80. THE RECORD HI MAX TEMP FOR THE MARQUETTE NWS IS 77 TMRW. SOME NEW DAILY RECORDS MAY BE ESTABLISHED. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO BE MUCH WEAKER TMRW...SO WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE UNDER 20 MPH OR SO DESPITE THE HIER SFC TEMPS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 NAM SHOWS A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z MON AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MON AND THEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z TUE. LOOKS DRY AND WARM TO START OUT THIS FORECAST AND THERE COULD BE A RECORD HIGH OR TWO THAT COULD FALL ON SUNDAY AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE SSW WINDS. THE RECORD FOR SUNDAY AT THE OFFICE HERE IS 77 IN 1995 AND THAT COULD BE IN JEOPARDY. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DO HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS IN FOR THE KEWEENAW MON EVENING WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING THERE IN NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT BELTS. LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GET VERY WINDY IN THE KEWEENAW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PRODUCT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. 12Z TUE WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED MOVES INTO THE ERN TROUGH AND HELPS TO DIG THE TROUGH MORE ON WED INTO THU WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN FOR FRI AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES IN THE EASTERN U.S. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -5C TO -9C ON FRI WITH THIS COLDER AIR...SO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 12C OR SO AND THERE IS ENOUGH LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T FOR THIS TO OCCUR ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 EXPECT GUSTY WINDS INTO THIS EVNG UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI PRES STRETCHING FM THE OH RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LO PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA. WITH SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING DURING THE EVNG... THE WIND GUSTS WL DIMINISH AND ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LLWS BEFORE THE PRES GRADIENT/WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVRN WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO END THE LLWS THREAT OVERNGT. SINCE THE SW FLOW WL BE TAPPING DRY AIR...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL 3 TAF SITES DESPITE SOME HI CLDS INTO THIS EVNG. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 STRONG SW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS UNDER A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING HI PRES RIDGE TO THE SE AND FALLING PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. BUT AS THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS THRU THE NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN/SUN NIGHT AND BRING SW WINDS UNDER 20 KTS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP LOW PRES THROUGH THROUGH ONTARIO ON MON...STRONG W WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL THROUGH MON NIGHT WHILE VEERING TO THE NW. SINCE COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS...INCREASED MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD GALES THAT WILL REACH 40-45 KTS. OPTED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR MON INTO TUE MORNING TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. TRAILING HI PRES WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS FOR TUE INTO WED. AFTER ANOTHER TROF PASSES ON WED...EXPECT NW WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS INTO THU. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LSZ266-267. GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ162-263. GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LSZ264. GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LSZ265. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
920 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015 .UPDATE... OVERALL SFC RIDGE IS SLOWLY BUILDING TO THE E TONIGHT OVER E MS INTO AL. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN THESE AREAS AND WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS...PW`S LESS OR NEAR ONLY HALF INCH...EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT. GUIDANCE SEEMS SLIGHTLY WARMER AS SOME WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE W AS BETTER PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPS WINDS UP SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOWER READINGS...ESPECIALLY IN THE E...DUE TO HOW DRY SOILS ARE AROUND THE REGION. KEPT PATCHY FOG IN GRIDS IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS BUT ALSO ADDED A LITTLE MORE IN THE S/SE DUE TO HRRR INDICATING SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG MOVING IN THE S OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS IN THAT AREA. PREVIOUS LOWS LOOK GOOD OVERNIGHT. /DC/ && .AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAY BREAK MONDAY PRIMARILY OVER EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AFFECTING TAF SITES KGTR/KMEI/KHBG DUE TO SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 7-12 KNOTS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY EVENING. /28/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015/ DISCUSSION... PRIMARY CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST WILL BE STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING...AND THEN MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT COULD POSE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST. BASED ON LOW TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOWER COOLER GUIDANCE SOUTHEAST OF THE DELTA REGION AND ADDED PATCHY FOG WHERE MIXING WILL NOT INCREASE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...BUT THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW HELP TO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF NOCTURNAL COOLING IN THE DELTA REGION. GOING INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS REALLY GOOD AND DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AT ALL. EXPECT STRONG MIXING AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THAT WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES APPROACHING DAILY RECORD LEVELS IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION (RECORDS ARE 93 AT GLH/GWO/TVR). BY LATE TOMORROW... INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BUT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL LIFT WILL COMBINE WITH ~30KTS OF DEEP LAYER FLOW TO BRING PRETTY GOOD CONVECTIVE PCPN COVERAGE...MAINLY CLOSER TO THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF DCAPE THAT COULD SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS DEVELOP CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING WHEN INSTABILITY WOULD BE MAXIMIZED. MOST RECENT CIPS GUIDANCE IS VERY BEARISH WITH ANALOGS FOR SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO ADD A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS. /EC/ TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY BEFORE MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WEAK/DRY FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY BE A WIND SHIFT. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF DUE DIVERGE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AND THUS DRAGS ANOTHER COOL FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS BUILDS WEAK UPPER RIDGING DURING THIS PERIOD AND THUS IS WARMER. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER ECMWF DURING THIS PERIOD, WHICH ALSO LINES UP BETTER WITH THE CANADIAN. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND./15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 53 88 63 82 / 0 5 38 6 MERIDIAN 47 85 61 82 / 0 2 33 11 VICKSBURG 54 89 61 83 / 0 11 42 7 HATTIESBURG 49 87 64 84 / 0 0 23 17 NATCHEZ 57 87 65 83 / 0 7 30 11 GREENVILLE 58 90 58 82 / 0 21 42 5 GREENWOOD 55 89 56 81 / 0 12 40 7 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ DC/28/EC/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
903 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015 .UPDATE... INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THIS MORNING OVER KLVM AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WITH KLVM REPORTING A GUST IN THE MID 50S. GAP FLOW WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH A FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN KLVM IN THE 60S AND THE PARK IN THE LOWER 30S. BASED ON THE RAP SOUNDINGS...THE RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES. GRIDDED MODEL DEWPOINTS LOOKED TOO HIGH GIVEN THE EXPECTED MIXING. NOTED THAT THE RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AT LEAST 30 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SO...WENT FOR A COMPROMISE AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES. CHECKED MOUNTAIN WAVE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...AND GFS KEPT STRONG WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL SO THIS SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. HIGH CIRRUS...AROUND 300 MB BASED ON 12Z KTFX SOUNDING...WAS SEEN OVER THE AREA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE GFS SHOWED THESE CLOUDS DECREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WAS REFLECTED IN THE GOING FORECAST. WILL WAIT FOR ALL THE NEW MODEL DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS...BUT ONE CONCERN WAS POSSIBLE INCREASE IN KLVM WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WILL EVALUATE ENTIRE WIND SITUATION FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUN THIS AFTERNOON. ARTHUR && .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN... RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BOTH SCENARIOS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL AND SO CAUTION IS VERY MUCH ADVISED WITH ANY OPEN FLAMES...BUT WE HAVEN/T ISSUED ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS BECAUSE FUEL-BASED FIRE DANGERS ARE ONLY IN THE LOW TO MODERATE CATEGORY. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S F AND IT/S VERY PLAUSIBLE THAT PLACES LIKE MILES CITY /WHERE MIXING WILL BE A BIT DEEPER WITH ITS RIVER-VALLEY LOCATION/ WILL REACH 90 F. AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 700-MB TEMPERATURES OF +10 TO +12 C LIKE WE EXPECT BY AFTERNOON IS EXCEEDINGLY RARE FOR EARLY TO MID OCTOBER. CURRENT DAILY RECORDS FOR OCTOBER 10TH ARE 85 F AT BILLINGS...88 F AT BOTH SHERIDAN AND LIVINGSTON...AND 90 F AT MILES CITY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE A BIT GUSTY TODAY...AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A CORE OF 50-70 KT 700-MB WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTED WIND GUSTS AT LIVINGSTON MAY PEAK NEAR 55 MPH /WHICH IS JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA/ AND THAT HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE RED LODGE... BUT BOTH THOSE ITEMS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING ON OUR PART. ON SUNDAY...STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WE HAVE POSTED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR SOUTHERN WHEATLAND COUNTY AND THE JUDITH GAP AREA AS THE EXPECTED 700-MB WINDS OF 50-55 KT ARE WELL-CORRELATED WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AROUND HARLOWTON. ELSE- WHERE...WE CHOSE TO FORGO ANY WIND HEADLINES AT THIS POINT AND ARE INSTEAD CALLING FOR WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND AN EARLY-DAY FRONTAL AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL EFFICIENTLY DRIVE WINDS ALOFT TO THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE 00 UTC GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF GENERALLY KEEP PEAK WINDS AT 850 MB NEAR 45 KT...JUST SHY OF THE 50 KT THRESHOLD WE TYPICALLY LOOK FOR WITH HIGH WIND EVENTS ON THE PLAINS. THE 00 UTC GFS DOES BRING WINDS OF THAT MAGNITUDE INTO THE MILES CITY AND BAKER AREAS BY VERY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH IS A BIT CONCERNING...BUT THAT OCCURS IN THE MODEL SIMULATION AFTER THE PEAK IN DIURNAL MIXING AND IT/S NOT LINKED UP WITH THE ISALLOBARIC /PRESSURE-RISE-DRIVEN/ WIND RESPONSE. OTHER- WISE...WE DO HAVE A LOW-END SHOWER CHANCE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS WELL...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F. SCHULTZ .LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI... LOW IMPACTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW MONDAY TURNS NORTHWEST AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND OREGON. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DRY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE MINIMAL. THE GFS HAS COME IN A LITTLE WARMER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONGER RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS STRONGER RIDGING RESULTS IN A MUCH WEAKER BACK COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THUS STRONGER WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS MEX GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF IN MIND. THE MAIN STORY ON THE EXTENDED IS MILD AND DRY. TWH && .AVIATION... GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE FOOTHILLS AREAS AND AROUND KLVM...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL EXTEND FROM ABOUT COLUMBUS EASTWARD TODAY...BEGINNING IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND SPREADING INTO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS EAST OF KBIL WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING...WHILE WINDS FROM KBIL WEST ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL. AAG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 087 062/068 040/070 048/075 045/072 044/069 045/070 0/U 02/W 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B LVM 087 062/065 038/072 043/073 042/073 040/071 040/072 0/N 22/W 00/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/B HDN 089 057/070 039/071 044/076 043/072 043/070 043/073 0/U 02/W 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B MLS 090 057/069 040/069 046/072 044/070 042/067 042/069 0/U 02/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/B 4BQ 089 057/070 039/067 045/073 043/071 042/070 042/072 0/U 02/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B BHK 086 056/069 041/065 044/070 042/067 039/065 039/067 0/U 02/W 10/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U SHR 091 056/071 038/070 042/075 041/072 040/071 039/072 0/U 02/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 28-63. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
330 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 A FAST MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS TAKEN HOLD WHICH WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PULL COOLER AIR FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD AND REPLACE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE RAPIDLY DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TO MID 90S. THIS STRATEGY APPEARS TO BE WORKING THIS AFTERNOON AS HOURLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO THE OBSERVED READINGS. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE WOULD HAVE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SFC TO GET CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE AND WE WILL SEE IF THAT MATERIALIZES THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD BE A FEW DEGREES TO WARM. THE MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT USES THE SAME STRATEGY AS THE MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST PRODUCING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT INCREASE SUNDAY AFTN TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH SEEM LIKELY ACROSS WRN NEB. THESE STRONGER WINDS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES WARM LATE IN THE AFTN AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FIRE WEATHER...THE GFS IS LEADING THE PACK WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. THE MODEL IS KNOWN FOR DEEP MIXING BUT APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING IT THIS AFTN. SO A BLEND OF GFS AND OTHER MODELS WAS USED FOR THE DEW POINTS SUNDAY. TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL GET IN RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS WHICH RUN OUT TO 18 HRS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MORE ACCURATE FORECAST. THE MODEL BLEND USED TODAY EFFECTIVELY NUDGES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTN. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A MOIST TRAJECTORY INTO THE AREA. THUS...AS THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY EVENING...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES... HOWEVER...WILL BE AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH LOWER MONDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...ALSO QUITE LOW. THEREFORE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE 15 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS... SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY OVER EVEN MORE OF THE SANDHILLS AND IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. USING A BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE NAM AND GFS...EVEN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...MILD DAYS AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED. THEN...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE LIKELY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 A LARGE AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN ACROSS CNTL CANADA. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 THE GFS IS LEADING THE PACK WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. THE MODEL IS KNOWN FOR DEEP MIXING BUT APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING IT THIS AFTN. SO A BLEND OF GFS AND OTHER MODELS WAS USED FOR THE DEW POINTS SUNDAY. TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL GET IN RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS WHICH RUN OUT TO 18 HRS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MORE ACCURATE FORECAST. THE MODEL BLEND USED TODAY EFFECTIVELY NUDGES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTN. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CDC SHORT TERM...COLE LONG TERM...SPRINGER AVIATION...CDC FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
248 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 A FAST MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS TAKEN HOLD WHICH WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PULL COOLER AIR FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD AND REPLACE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE RAPIDLY DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TO MID 90S. THIS STRATEGY APPEARS TO BE WORKING THIS AFTERNOON AS HOURLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO THE OBSERVED READINGS. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE WOULD HAVE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SFC TO GET CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE AND WE WILL SEE IF THAT MATERIALIZES THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD BE A FEW DEGREES TO WARM. THE MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT USES THE SAME STRATEGY AS THE MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST PRODUCING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT INCREASE SUNDAY AFTN TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH SEEM LIKELY ACROSS WRN NEB. THESE STRONGER WINDS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES WARM LATE IN THE AFTN AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FIRE WEATHER...THE GFS IS LEADING THE PACK WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. THE MODEL IS KNOWN FOR DEEP MIXING BUT APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING IT THIS AFTN. SO A BLEND OF GFS AND OTHER MODELS WAS USED FOR THE DEW POINTS SUNDAY. TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL GET IN RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS WHICH RUN OUT TO 18 HRS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MORE ACCURATE FORECAST. THE MODEL BLEND USED TODAY EFFECTIVELY NUDGES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTN. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A MOIST TRAJECTORY INTO THE AREA. THUS...AS THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH THE STATE SUNDAY EVENING...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES... HOWEVER...WILL BE AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH LOWER MONDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...ALSO QUITE LOW. THEREFORE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE 15 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS... SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY OVER EVEN MORE OF THE SANDHILLS AND IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. USING A BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED STATISTICAL OUTPUT FROM THE NAM AND GFS...EVEN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...MILD DAYS AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED. THEN...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE LIKELY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015 A LARGE AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN ACROSS CNTL CANADA. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219. && $$ SYNOPSIS...COLE SHORT TERM...COLE LONG TERM...SPRINGER AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SLOWLY EAST THEN NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY... STILL EXPECTING RAIN TO OVERSPREAD SRN NC FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING... WITH LESSER COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH... AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND DEEPENS TO A CLOSED LOW OVER GA/SC. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT STILL NW OF NC... WITH A WEAK OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WHICH A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NOW TRACKING ESE THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. THE LOSS OF HEATING AND EASTWARD SHIFT IN SUPPORTIVE SHEAR HAS LED TO A GENERAL DISSIPATION OF THESE PREFRONTAL SHOWERS. BUT RAIN WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP THIS MORNING AS THE PRECIP SHIELD NOW COVERING CENTRAL/ERN TN / NRN AL / NRN GA AND FAR WRN NC MOVES EASTWARD. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION IN WHICH THE MOST STEADY AND WIDESPREAD RAIN TRACKS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64... LEAVING MORE PATCHY AND LIGHTER PRECIP TO ITS NORTH... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THAT THE BEST DPVA WILL BE ACROSS SRN NC INTO SC... WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS GA/SC. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE PEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JETLET OVER THE FAR NRN GULF WILL TRACK ACROSS SC AND ADJACENT NC THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A SOUTHWARD FOCUS OF BEST COVERAGE AND QPF... HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH QPF OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH... WHILE ACROSS THE NORTH... WILL HAVE LOWER POPS OF 50-70% AND TOTAL QPF OF A TENTH TO HALF INCH. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND WRN CWA THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW ALONG THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF THE SC COAST... FORCING SURFACE WINDS TO BACK OVER CENTRAL NC... DRAWING IN DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. THE MID-UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS WELL WITH THE SLOW ONSET OF SUBSIDENCE... ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE QUITE SLOW TO DRIFT OFF THE NRN SC / SRN NC COAST LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE ERN CWA OVERNIGHT... AND WILL RETAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST WITH A SLOW EXIT TO THE RAIN OUT OF THE SE AND FAR ERN CWA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY FALL FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS TODAY... DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND NOT UNTIL AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTH... SO TODAY`S "HIGHS" IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH READINGS IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 40S NW (WHERE SKIES WILL TREND TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHTER WINDS) TO THE MID 50S EAST (LONGER-LIVED CLOUD DECK AND MORE BRISK WINDS OVERNIGHT). -GIH && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY... THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SIT OVER NE SC EARLY SUN THEN WOBBLE NEAR OR JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE FILLING THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SE CWA EARLY SUN MORNING... BUT THE DRYING ALOFT AND INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD PUT AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES AREAWIDE BY MID MORNING. MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND THE SURFACE-850 MB LOW SHOULD KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST OF RALEIGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY... WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE NAM CLEARS OUT CENTRAL NC MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN THE GFS... AND THIS FASTER AND MORE OPTIMISTIC NAM SOLUTION IS PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE WEAKENING NATURE OF THE LOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON ITS NW SIDE. THE STABLE AIR AND COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SUNDAY DESPITE THE INCREASING SUNSHINE IN THE NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT HIGHS OF 67-71. LOWS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S... WARMER IN THE EAST WITH WEAKER COOL AIR ADVECTION. -GIH && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM STEMMING FROM A PARENT LOW OVER QUEBEC. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BECOME PROGRESSIVELY DRIER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE GFS REALLY DRY AND THE ECMWF STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. HAVE CUT BACK POPS AND QPF FOR TUESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE NOW LEANING TOWARDS A NEARLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVEN IF SHOWERS DO OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...ACCUMULATIONS WOULD ONLY BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING KICKING OFF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LATE IN THE WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN OVER THE EAST COAST...MODELS DIFFER IN THE HANDLING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY THAT IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT IN THE GFS BUT AFFECTS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN PERIPHERY IN THE ECWMF SOLUTION ON FRIDAY EVENING. TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN NEXT WEEKENDS WEATHER BUT IS WORTH WATCHING. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY... INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL TREND TO MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING... WHICH WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z THIS MORNING... CAUSING A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM LIGHT WSW TO NORTHEAST AT 8- 12 KTS. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL HOLD WITH THESE. THEN... LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (17Z-05Z) MAINLY ACROSS SRN NC AND AFFECTING FAY FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR CIGS/VSBYS... AND IF THE LATEST HRRR TREND ENDS UP CORRECT... THE POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS MAY LAST JUST A FEW HOURS. WILL MONITOR THIS TREND FOR LATER TAFS. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE CIGS FALLING TO MVFR AND BRIEFLY IFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z... LASTING UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IS EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE... WITH CIGS IMPROVING FIRST AT INT/GSO NEAR 22Z... AT RDU/RWI AT 02Z-03Z... AND REMAINING SUB-VFR AT FAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD (06Z TONIGHT). RAIN WITH MVFR VSBYS WILL LAST LONGEST AT FAY... WHILE OTHER TAF SITES WILL SEE MORE PATCHY RAIN AND SHORTER PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SUN MORNING... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY NE OFF THE NC COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW... SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT MAY HOLD UP FROM THE NORTH NEAR 6-10 KTS AT FAY THROUGH SUN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUE... ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS FRONT AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD... LASTING THROUGH WED BEHIND THE FRONT. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM... HARTFIELD LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
304 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH... AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY... THE LATEST RADAR INDICATED THAT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NW PART OF THE TRIAD REGION. THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL WILKES AND NORTHWEST ALEXANDER COUNTIES OF THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME IN CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS OCCURRING. THE CG LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE LOCATED WELL NORTHEAST IN EASTERN VIRGINIA. THE LATEST WEATHER PARAMETERS STILL SUGGEST THAT THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE TRIAD REGION... BUT WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY... ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL ANALYZED FROM WV INTO KY MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA NEARING LATE EVENING... THE INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOSE ITS PUNCH THROUGH 100 OR 200 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE TRIAD LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT... AND SLOWLY INCREASE THE CHANCE POP INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THE CHANCE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SC AS THE MAIN FRONT SETTLES INTO THAT REGION. INCREASING LIFT AND OVERRUNNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL AID IN RAIN DEVELOPMENT OVER NC ON SATURDAY. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TONIGHT... THEN TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY WITH THE INCREASING RAIN AND NE FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SAT AM FOLLOWED BY QUICKLY RISING MSLP OVER CENTRAL NC FROM THE W AND N. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LOW LAGGING...LOOK FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO SET UP AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS RAIN WILL BE...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER-RES WRF RUNS SUGGESTING THAT AREAS NORTH OF I-85 WILL DRY OUT FROM NOON- TIME ON AND RAIN GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM IS SLOWER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE TRIAD WITH A MORE GENERAL COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC MOST OF THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES AND CONTINUE DEPICTING THE HIGHEST POPS (CATEGORICAL) ACROSS OUR S/SE ZONES AND 50-60 POPS (LIKELY) ACROSS OUR TRIAD ZONES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH GRAY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN...LOOK FOR LITTLE IF ANY TEMP CHANGE FROM TONIGHTS LOW...TEMPS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S DURING THE DAYTIME. WITH MSLP RISING... WE`LL SEE A NE BREEZE DURING THE DAY STEADY AT 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY MOVING EAST...RAIN WILL END FROM NW TO SE..AND SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND ASSOC DRYING WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE TRIAD...BUT REMAINING CLOUDY MOST OF THE NIGHT FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WITH CAA THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE...LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM STEMMING FROM A PARENT LOW OVER QUEBEC. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BECOME PROGRESSIVELY DRIER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE GFS REALLY DRY AND THE ECMWF STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. HAVE CUT BACK POPS AND QPF FOR TUESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE NOW LEANING TOWARDS A NEARLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVEN IF SHOWERS DO OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...ACCUMULATIONS WOULD ONLY BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING KICKING OFF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LATE IN THE WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN OVER THE EAST COAST...MODELS DIFFER IN THE HANDLING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY THAT IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT IN THE GFS BUT AFFECTS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN PERIPHERY IN THE ECWMF SOLUTION ON FRIDAY EVENING. TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN NEXT WEEKENDS WEATHER BUT IS WORTH WATCHING. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY... INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL TREND TO MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING... WHICH WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z THIS MORNING... CAUSING A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM LIGHT WSW TO NORTHEAST AT 8- 12 KTS. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL HOLD WITH THESE. THEN... LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (17Z-05Z) MAINLY ACROSS SRN NC AND AFFECTING FAY FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR CIGS/VSBYS... AND IF THE LATEST HRRR TREND ENDS UP CORRECT... THE POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS MAY LAST JUST A FEW HOURS. WILL MONITOR THIS TREND FOR LATER TAFS. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE CIGS FALLING TO MVFR AND BRIEFLY IFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z... LASTING UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IS EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE... WITH CIGS IMPROVING FIRST AT INT/GSO NEAR 22Z... AT RDU/RWI AT 02Z-03Z... AND REMAINING SUB-VFR AT FAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD (06Z TONIGHT). RAIN WITH MVFR VSBYS WILL LAST LONGEST AT FAY... WHILE OTHER TAF SITES WILL SEE MORE PATCHY RAIN AND SHORTER PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SUN MORNING... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY NE OFF THE NC COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW... SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT MAY HOLD UP FROM THE NORTH NEAR 6-10 KTS AT FAY THROUGH SUN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUE... ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS FRONT AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD... LASTING THROUGH WED BEHIND THE FRONT. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM... RAH LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1259 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH... AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY... THE LATEST RADAR INDICATED THAT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NW PART OF THE TRIAD REGION. THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL WILKES AND NORTHWEST ALEXANDER COUNTIES OF THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME IN CLOUD LIGHTNING WAS OCCURRING. THE CG LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE LOCATED WELL NORTHEAST IN EASTERN VIRGINIA. THE LATEST WEATHER PARAMETERS STILL SUGGEST THAT THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE TRIAD REGION... BUT WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY... ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL ANALYZED FROM WV INTO KY MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA NEARING LATE EVENING... THE INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOSE ITS PUNCH THROUGH 100 OR 200 AM. WE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE TRIAD LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT... AND SLOWLY INCREASE THE CHANCE POP INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THE CHANCE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SC AS THE MAIN FRONT SETTLES INTO THAT REGION. INCREASING LIFT AND OVERRUNNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL AID IN RAIN DEVELOPMENT OVER NC ON SATURDAY. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TONIGHT... THEN TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY WITH THE INCREASING RAIN AND NE FLOW. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY... THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SAT AM FOLLOWED BY QUICKLY RISING MSLP OVER CENTRAL NC FROM THE W AND N. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LOW LAGGING...LOOK FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO SET UP AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS RAIN WILL BE...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER-RES WRF RUNS SUGGESTING THAT AREAS NORTH OF I-85 WILL DRY OUT FROM NOON- TIME ON AND RAIN GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM IS SLOWER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE TRIAD WITH A MORE GENERAL COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC MOST OF THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES AND CONTINUE DEPICTING THE HIGHEST POPS (CATEGORICAL) ACROSS OUR S/SE ZONES AND 50-60 POPS (LIKELY) ACROSS OUR TRIAD ZONES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH GRAY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN...LOOK FOR LITTLE IF ANY TEMP CHANGE FROM TONIGHTS LOW...TEMPS HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S DURING THE DAYTIME. WITH MSLP RISING... WE`LL SEE A NE BREEZE DURING THE DAY STEADY AT 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY MOVING EAST...RAIN WILL END FROM NW TO SE..AND SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AND ASSOC DRYING WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS THE TRIAD...BUT REMAINING CLOUDY MOST OF THE NIGHT FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WITH CAA THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE...LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY... SUNDAY AND MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY STALL IN VICINITY OF THE SE COAST SUN/MON...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...IN ADDITION TO WHETHER OR NOT CLOUD COVER AND PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS ON BOTH DAYS...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TUESDAY: A SHORTWAVE MOVING ASHORE THE PAC NW AND CANADIAN PACIFIC WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SE THROUGH THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES TO 30% WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...DEPENDING ON PRECIP /EVAP COOLING/ AND FROPA. WED-FRI: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY... INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL TREND TO MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING... WHICH WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARD THE ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z THIS MORNING... CAUSING A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM LIGHT WSW TO NORTHEAST AT 8- 12 KTS. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL HOLD WITH THESE. THEN... LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (17Z-05Z) MAINLY ACROSS SRN NC AND AFFECTING FAY FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR CIGS/VSBYS... AND IF THE LATEST HRRR TREND ENDS UP CORRECT... THE POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS MAY LAST JUST A FEW HOURS. WILL MONITOR THIS TREND FOR LATER TAFS. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE CIGS FALLING TO MVFR AND BRIEFLY IFR BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z... LASTING UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IS EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE... WITH CIGS IMPROVING FIRST AT INT/GSO NEAR 22Z... AT RDU/RWI AT 02Z-03Z... AND REMAINING SUB-VFR AT FAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD (06Z TONIGHT). RAIN WITH MVFR VSBYS WILL LAST LONGEST AT FAY... WHILE OTHER TAF SITES WILL SEE MORE PATCHY RAIN AND SHORTER PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SUN MORNING... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY NE OFF THE NC COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW... SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT MAY HOLD UP FROM THE NORTH NEAR 6-10 KTS AT FAY THROUGH SUN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUE... ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS FRONT AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD... LASTING THROUGH WED BEHIND THE FRONT. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...BADGETT SHORT TERM... RAH LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
255 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS KY THIS MORNING...WHILE THE UPPER LOW IS OVER MIDDLE TN. BOTH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL BE SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 00Z. SOME CLEARING SHOULD BE COMING INTO WESTERN AREAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WORKING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SUGGESTING THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ALONG WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB...HIGHS WILL PROBABLY NOT RISE MUCH...REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... ONLY REAL NOTABLE WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE LONG TERM WILL THE FRONT OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING, THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BUT DISAGREE WITH RESPECT TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ECMWF IS MORE GENEROUS WITH THE MOISTURE, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE DRY OVER OUR AREA. SO AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE WITH DECENT POPS OVER THE AREA AND RAISE/LOWER THEM AS THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT. REGARDLESS OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND BRING IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 53 76 53 / 80 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 51 73 50 / 80 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 70 49 74 51 / 60 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 48 71 47 / 60 10 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/ABM
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH OUT WEST AT KDRT...WHERE INCREASED LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME THICK ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS JUST YET. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... NO SHORT TERM IMPACTS EXPECTED AS DRIER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE WEST TOWARDS THE BAJA OF MEXICO. A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WAS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THAT WILL USER IN A DRIER AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY/FRONT IS NOTED NORTH OF THE REGION ALONG A DALLAS TO MIDLAND LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK DUE TO TO HIGHER CLOUDS FROM THE PREVIOUS COMPLEX. HAVE PLACED A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH 7PM FOR THIS ACTIVITY. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS TO DRIZZLE ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BUT NO TRUE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE LAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY. FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS FALLING TO 1.3-1.5". THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS READINGS WILL BE NEAR 10F OVER THE TYPICAL VALUES THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AREA WIDE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SOURCES OF LIFT OR INSTABILITY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY DESPITE BEING BRUSHED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST SUNDAY MORNING. LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)... NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING SOME RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK...MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A DEEPER ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL AID A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN NEAR LOCK STEP WITH EACH OTHER INDICATING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS EARLIER OR LATER COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF TSTORM STRENGTH. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...AVAILABLE THERMODYNAMICS WOULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT OVERALL SET UP WOULD NOT FAVOR A FLOODING OR SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME. HAVE PLACED 20-30% TSTORM CHANCES AND WILL MONITOR TIMING/PARAMETER TRENDS. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S-30S WHICH WOULD DROP THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL AS MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS COULD DROP INTO THE LOW 50S FOR NORTH HALF AND INTO THE HILL COUNTRY THOSE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. PWATS WILL DROP TO THE LOWEST THEY HAVE BEEN THIS FALL SEASON WITH READINGS BELOW 0.3" IN THE NORTH. THIS LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NIL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 94 72 95 68 / - - 0 - 20 AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 94 67 94 66 / - - 0 - 20 NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 95 69 96 68 / - - 0 - 20 BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 94 70 95 65 / - - 0 - 10 DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 91 69 95 70 / - - 0 0 10 GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 64 93 70 95 64 / - - 0 - 20 HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 94 68 95 68 / - - 0 0 10 SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 93 68 94 67 / - - 0 - 20 LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 64 93 70 93 68 / - - 0 - 20 SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 93 70 94 70 / - - 0 0 20 STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 95 70 95 70 / - - 0 0 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
946 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING RAIN AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOR DRY WEATHER. A WEAKER FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT OFFSHORE...JUST ENTERING THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AROUND 15Z/8 AM. WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN BRINGING AREAS OF RAIN TO W WA SINCE BEFORE SUNRISE. PER THE GFS20 THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ENHANCED PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BAND ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFSHORE. FROPA STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE AROUND MIDDAY FOR THE COAST AND 2 PM TO 3 PM FOR THE INTERIOR. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS ALSO RIGHT WHERE THERE HAS BEEN FREQUENT LIGHTNING OFFSHORE. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ALONG WITH THE COASTAL STRIP FOR THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST ALREADY HAD A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SAME AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL BREAK UP A LITTLE WHILE CROSSING THE OLYMPICS SO IT IS LESS CERTAIN THAT ANY LIGHTNING WILL MAKE IT E OVER THE INTERIOR. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR...LAM...AND UWWRF SHOW THE CURRENT WIND AND PRECIP FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR TODAY. WINDS SHOULD REACH BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS...UP TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 MPH...IN SPOTS OVER THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE N INTERIOR. OVER THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO MENTION GUSTS TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE FRONT SHOULD STILL PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT ROUGHLY TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH TO THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS...AND THE FRONT ITSELF COULD DOUBLE THAT THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING FOR SHOWERY WEATHER. A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE IS LIKELY AT THAT TIME. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER W WA ON SUNDAY FOR A DRY DAY. BUT PRECIP IS STILL CLOSE BY...AS THE GFS SHOWS SOME SPOTTY PRECIP JUST ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GFS TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KSEA SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING...DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD. SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY OVERALL. MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. SLOW ENOUGH SO THAT RAIN WILL PROBABLY ONLY REACH THE COAST AND N INTERIOR IN THE MORNING...FINALLY SPREADING S OVER PUGET SOUND IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PUT THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION IN THE OLYMPIC RAIN SHADOW...SO THERE MAY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE WEAKENING FRONT CONTINUES SAGGING SLOWLY S MONDAY EVENING AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. KAM .LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 311 AM AFD...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS OF COURSE...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS LARGE SCALE IDEA. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TUESDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE RECENT TREND IN THE MODELS IS CORRECT. OTHERWISE THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. MCDONNAL && .AVIATION...A VIGOROUS FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY AND PUSH THROUGH THE PUGET SOUND REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHEAST GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND BECOMING UNSTABLE. CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT WESTERN WA...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CIGS 3-5K FT THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN FALL TO MOSTLY MVFR 1500-2500 FT WITH STEADY RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IN THE AFTERNOON. KSEA...RAIN AT TIMES...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS AT OR WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL AT 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR 3-4K FT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH STEADY RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PASS THE TERMINAL BY AROUND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS. BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS RISING TO 15 TO 20 KT AND GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT. && .MARINE...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...AND PUSH THROUGH THE INLAND WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. GALES ARE LIKELY ON THE COAST AND OVER MOST OF THE INLAND WATERS. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY IN THE STRAIT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN PUGET SOUND WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT WIND SPEEDS LIMITED IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE FOR THE SOUND BUT WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN WINDS SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS ON MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE. SWELL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT WILL BE IN THE 12 TO 15 FOOT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS THE FIRST LARGE SWELL EVENT OF THE SEASON. PEOPLE ON THE COAST SHOULD USE CAUTION WHEN APPROACHING THE SURF ZONE. DTM/CHB && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY. WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL COAST-NORTH COAST. PZ...GALE WARNING COAST UNTIL 2 PM PDT TODAY. GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS. SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT FROM 2 PM PDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FROPA WITH STEEP PRESSURE RISES. AT THIS TIME GUSTS 30-40 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT THEN TRANSITIONS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY. DUE TO A DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES COME ACROSS THE FA IN THE FLOW. SOME LIFT IS INDICATED BUT ADEQUATE MOISTURE IS LACKING. CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW. CONSEQUENTLY, POPS WILL BE NIL FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S. MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S. IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST IN EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH SUNDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. SATURDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO THE UPPER 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S THURSDAY TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND THEN BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT BECOMING BREEZY AGAIN ONCE MIXING BEGINS BY MID MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015 THIS AFTERNOON...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING WITHIN A VERY DRY AIR MASS ASS HAVE LED TO RH VALUES DROPPING TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS OUR CWA. WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA AND MAIN LOW AND MID LEVEL JET AXIS REMAINING NORTH HAS RESULTED N WINDS REMAINING BELOW RFW CRITERIA. AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD STILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA...SO THERE SHOULD STILL BE A WINDOW FOR 25 MPH BEFORE SUNSET IN SW NEBRASKA/NE COLORADO. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT RFW AT THIS TIME. MONDAY...VERY LOW TD VALUES WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR CWA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH VALUES IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S. UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT WILL BE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...SO WHILE THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON COULD SEE GUSTS 20-30 MPH THERE WILL ONLY BE A SMALL WINDOW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN CWA FOR 25 MPH/LOWER RH VALUES. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION AND UNCERTAINTY OF 3HR OF RFW CONDITIONS. WITH ONGOING RFW AND LOW CONFIDENCE THE DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF WATCH DURING THIS UPDATE CYCLE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...024 SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...FS AVIATION...024 FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
340 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER FAR EAST KENTUCKY. TO THE NORTHWEST...A FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT APPROACHING KENTUCKY. THE HIGH HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR AND THIS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESTABLISHING A GOOD RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES. READINGS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE EAST WHILE RIDGES ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIR MIXED UP AT MOST OF THE OBS SITES...KEEPING THE FOG AT BAY...SO FAR. STILL EXPECT RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAWN. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH ITS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING ITS ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN ITS WAKE...LATER TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE STATE AS THE TROUGH/S ENERGY MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATING LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE AROUND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE AS A MAINLY DRY ONE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BREAKOUT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN SOME SHEAR AND LIMITED...BUT NON-ZERO... INSTABILITY. THIS FRONT...AND WHATEVER CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES IT...MOVES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY IN THE EVENING WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF QPF ANTICIPATED. COOLER WEATHER MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EVEN AS SOME SUNSHINE RETURNS. THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH TUESDAY. DID HAVE TO MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT...RELATIVE ELEVATION BASED...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN SOME SMALLER TWEAKS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE DRIER SIDE OF A RAPIDLY CLIMBING MOS CONSENSUS FOR THE FROPA THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE CARRIED SINGLE DIGITS POPS...IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM. THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LARGE SCALE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE THEN FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH...BRINGING WITH THEM REPEATED SHOTS OF COLD CANADIAN AIR THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. IN THE MEANTIME...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE THE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY TIME FRAME...WHEN A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE SURFACE RIDGES BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND MOVES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PROVIDED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR FIRST MAJOR FROST EVENTS OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST NIGHTS FOR FROST WILL BE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...WHEN WE WILL BE SEEING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S UNDER CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN OUR VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME MIN READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S IN OUR VALLEYS...AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE ALOFT BRINGS A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE TWO NIGHTS COULD POSSIBLE SEE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAXES IN THE UPPER 60S EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...A COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT BRING REPEATED ROUNDS OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. HOWEVER...MORE RIVER VALLEY FOG IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP...BUT NOT BE AS BAD AS LAST NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ONLY CARRIED SOME MVFR FOG AT SOMERSET AND LOZ THROUGH DAWN. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE AREA STAYING VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN THE FROM THE WEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM JUST AS THAT FRONT GOES THROUGH IN THE EVENING. EXPECT FOR FROPA...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K FT THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
407 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DIURNAL MIXING COMMENCES, WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS YESTERDAY SUGGEST RAISING FORECAST HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY. MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE EASILY ACHIEVABLE WITH 80 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE METRO AREA. AS IMPRESSIVE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IN REGARD TO STRENGTH, IT IS EQUALLY UNIMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM. MODEL PROGS INDICATE JUST A THIN LAYER OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT AROUND 3KFT AGL STRINGING NORTH IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THIS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A SECOND SOURCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL, BUT IT IS ALSO UNLIKELY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT. CONVERGENT AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR, AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS AS IT HAS STARTED TO PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY IN THE POST-SURFACE FRONT ENVIRONMENT. 22Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING AT KPTK CAPTURES THE ENVIRONMENT WELL AND CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DRY AIR WILL ALREADY BE FULLY IN PLACE BELOW 10KFT. THEREFORE, THE DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. A MODEST WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO W WILL ACCOMPANY AFTERNOON FROPA BUT SURFACE COLD AIR WILL LAG BY A WIDE MARGIN. AS A RESULT, EXPECT DIURNAL GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH AS USUAL WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSET, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL CWA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. COLD ADVECTION AT 925MB AND BELOW WILL GET UNDERWAY IN EARNEST BY AROUND 06Z, MIXING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. BY SUNRISE TUESDAY, EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND WESTERLY WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH. && .LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY A STEADY AND CONTINUOUS SUPPRESSION OF GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE COMPLETE WITH A RETURN OF HIGH FREQUENCY/AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES. THE STRONG PV ANOMALY RESIDING WITHIN A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON TO START THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY. SOME INCREASE IN THE WAVLENGTH OF THE FEATURE WILL KEEP IT OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY CHARTS SUGGEST SOME DURATION OF FAIRLY STRONG MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT DON/T REALLY THINK IT WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT WITH REGARDS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE DRIVER FOR THE WEATHER ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE OVERWHELMING CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS TARGET STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SATURATION IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER. THIS WILL BE GOOD FOR OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A MENTION OF SPRINKLES WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER. CAMS AND NAM CONVERGENCE FIELDS HIGHLIGHT THE BEST POTENTIAL TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 94 AND AREAS DOWNWIND OF SAGINAW BAY WITH A LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR CONNECTION. GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUD...WENT VERY AGGRESIVE WITH LOWERING OFF OF GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY TEMEPRATURES. THE OUTGOING FORECAST WILL CALL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STUCK IN THE 50S. IN ADDITION...WENT VERY AGGRESSIVE FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MOVE MUCH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. A CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD IS SET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A CONFLICTING SETUP. SPECIFICALLY...WILL BE LOOKING AT A VERY STRONG JET CORE SNAKING/CARVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDATLANTIC. THE CONFLICT STEMS FROM A LACK OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION/DEEP SATURATION RESIDING TO THE NORTH OF THE JET AXIS/EXIT REGION. INSTEAD...MODELS ADVERTISE A FAIRLY TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. PROBABLY SOME RESULT OF A DOUBLE JET CORE CONFIGURATION. SO THE QUESTION REALLY COMES DOWN TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN DOWNWARD AND ERODE THE EXISTING STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN SOME FEEDBACK LOOP WHERE CLOUD BECOMES LESS OPTICALLY THICK WHICH CAUSES MIXING HEIGHTS TO RISE ENOUGH TO CAUSE CLOUD EROSION. WILL STICK TO THE THEME HERE AND GO AGGRESSIVE/PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS REALLY ON THE WARM SIDE FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT WILL STICK TO THE 50S. GIVEN THE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEPTHS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ACTIVE MARINE PERIOD THIS WEEK. DEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AREWIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ST CLAIR AND THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE BEGINNING THIS EVENING. A GALE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR POTENTIAL MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON PRIMARILY FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 1152 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 A LIGHT S-SW WIND /8-12KTS/ WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A RESULT OF A STEADY GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT A RATHER ABRUPT INCREASE IN WINDS BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THOUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE 3500-5K FT LAYER WILL SUPPORT SOME SCT TO PERHAPS BKN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SE MI LATE MON AFTERNOON. LACK OF MOISTURE DEPTH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY LOW. NOT MUCH OF A WIND DIRECTION SHIFT IS EXPECTED EITHER...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FOR DTW...A STEADY INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER 13Z WITH THE EXPECTED SHALLOW INVERSION. GIVEN THE LACK OF SUPPORTING OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM...A BKN CLOUD DECK AT/OR BELOW 5000 FT WILL BE PUSHED BACK UNTIL MID MON AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * MEDIUM IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT MON AFTERNOON. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443. GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR LHZ361- 362. LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LCZ460. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ444. && $$ SHORT TERM...JVC LONG TERM....CB MARINE.......CB AVIATION.....SC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
332 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA ON THE NRN FLANK OF UPR RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE PLAINS. AT THE LLVLS...PERSISTENT WSW FLOW BTWN HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND AREA OF LO PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA IS ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AIRMASS/AREA OF H85 TEMPS AOA 20C OVER MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL CONUS INTO THE UPR LKS. THE COMBINATION OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND THE UNSEASONABLE H85 WARMTH IS RESULTING IN SOME RECORD/NEAR RECORD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN THE 80S THIS AFTN AWAY FM LK MI MODERATION. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A POTENT SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...RESULTING IN 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 150M AND SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40-50 KTS OVER MONTANA. MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON FCST SURGE OF LLVL MSTR SHOWN BY SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS INTO THE UPR LKS TNGT AHEAD OF COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV TO THE W AND THEN POPS/WINDS ON MON AS POTENT SHRTWV NOW APRCHG THE NRN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPR LKS. TNGT...THIS EVNG WL BE MOCLR WITH WARM AND DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING. BUT OVERNGT AS UPR SHRTWV MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND INTO NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z...ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO SWING THRU THE WRN CWA AND REACH THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 12Z. DESPITE 12HR H5 HGT FALLS FCST UP 150-200M AND A BAND OF DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE FROPA WL BE A DRY ONE GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MSTR INFLOW. BUT SEVERAL OF THE SHORTER TERM MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM...INDICATE STRENGTHENING LLVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WL ADVECT MORE LLVL MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS AND BRING SOME LO CLDS. CONSIDERING THE WARMTH/DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS AND STEADY WINDS THAT WOULD RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL/INCRS IN NEAR SFC RH...FAVOR THE DRIER MODEL SCENARIOS THAT SHOW LOWER NEAR SFC RH/LESS IN THE WAY OF LO CLDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...W WINDS COULD GUST AS HI AS 25 TO 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH INCRSG CAA/ INSTABILITY. MON...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE SHRTWV AS A SECOND JET STREAK CORE DIGS INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY AND AMPLIFIES THE ACCOMPANYING UPR TROFFING. THIS JET CORE ALSO HAS RESULTED IN A SHARPER TRAILING SECOND SFC COLD FNT IN MN...WITH THE RESULT A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER SFC WINDS OVER UPR MI UNTIL THAT SECOND FNT/TROF PASSES LATE ON MON OR EVEN MON EVNG. SINCE THE LLVL WINDS WL BE WEAKER AND MORE BACKED TO THE SW AND H85 TEMPS DO NOT FALL AS QUICKLY WITH A HINT OF AN H85 THERMAL RDG AHEAD OF THE SECOND FNT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY...WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LESS EXPOSED KEWEENAW WL BE WEAKER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN. FOR THIS REASON...DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVY FOR THAT AREA UNTIL 00Z TUE. DRY SLOTTING FOLLOWING THE MRNG COLD FROPA WL GRDLY GIVE WAY TO MORE CLDS AS AREA OF HIER RH WITHIN DEEP CYC FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF CLOSED LO TRACKING THRU ONTARIO OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HI CHC/LIKELY POPS WL RETURN OVER THE W DURING THE AFTN WITH THE CORE OF THE DEEPER MSTR IN ADVANCE OF THE TRAILING SECOND COLD FNT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE MUCH LOWER THAN TDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKWASH MSTR/CLDS WL ARRIVE EARLIER FOLLOWING THE DRY SLOTTING...MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S WL STILL BE ABV NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 MODEL TIMING WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM HAS SLOWED BY 6-12 HOURS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. AT 12Z TUE...THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL BE E OF THE CWA AND QUICKLY MOVING E...MAKING FOR PRESSURE RISES OF AROUND 7MB PER 6 HOURS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. BY 12Z...THE PRESSURE RISE CENTER WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW...SO MAX WINDS AFTER 12Z WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE LAKE. SOLID GALES WILL BE ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN LAKE THROUGH MOST OF TUE. COULD SEE GUSTS OF 40-45MPH ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORES...MAINLY KEWEENAW AND E AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE W IN THE MORNING AND OVER THE E TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LAKE ENHANCED RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TUE...FASTEST OVER THE W...BUT RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH AXIS OF 0C TO -3C WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BETWEEN 21Z TUE AND 06Z WED...BUT TEMPS INCREASE PRETTY QUICKLY LATE WED NIGHT INTO WED. THUS...WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR WELL INTO WED NIGHT...WITH DECREASED COVERAGE OVER THE W. FORECAST FOR WED ON WILL BE DOMINATED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS...PUTTING THE AREA IN NW FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE UNTIL A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG SOME MUCH COLDER AIR WITH IT. THE 00Z/12 GFS BRINGS 850MB TEMPS TO -8C TO -10C BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND 18Z SAT...WHILE THE 12Z/11 IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH BRINGING THE COLD AIR IN AND ONLY -5C TO -7C DURING THAT TIME. SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT RAIN WITH THAT COLDER AIR REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...BUT THE EXTENT AND PTYPE IS UNCERTAIN. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS (PROBABLY NOT ACCUMULATING) FRI INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT DUE TO COOLER NEAR SFC TEMPS. GFS SOLUTION WOULD PROBABLY KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW 40F IN MANY PLACES...WITH SOME SPOTS OVER THE SCENTRAL BEING AROUND 40F. ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S. WILL HAVE TO GET CLOSER TO DETERMINE MORE PRECISE SNOW POTENTIAL. SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND BEGIN SUN AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 AS APPROACHING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW...THERE ARE SOME HINTS UPSTREAM THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. SINCE A BKN MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS NOT YET ORGANIZED...WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 2000FT. DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING. IN THE AFTN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN A BKN VFR CLOUD DECK FALLING TO MVFR IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX AND IN THE EVENING AT KSAW. EXPECT SOME -SHRA TO DEVELOP AS WELL. FINALLY... EXPECT A FEW HRS OF GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30KT JUST AFTER FROPA OVERNIGHT AT KCMX. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSING THIS EVENING WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX SITE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE W LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SINCE THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL A ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER LAKES LATE MON/MON NIGHT... HAVE TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF THE GALE WARNINGS ISSUED EARLIER. SINCE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ENHANCE THE WSW WIND BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TO AT LEAST NEAR GALE FORCE...ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE TIMING WERE MADE FOR THAT AREA. SINCE THE PROGRESSION TO THE E OF THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STRONGER NW WINDS HAS SLOWED...EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIMES FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL WEAKER GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HI PRES RIDGE ARRIVES W-E ON TUE. WEAKER W TO NW WINDS UNDER 25 KTS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU WED. A PAIR OF LO PRES TROUGHS WILL PASS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT RIGHT NOW THE PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TROUGHS LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO HOLD WINDS UNDER 25 KTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267. GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266. GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ248-265. GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ243>245-264. GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ246-247. GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263. GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA ON THE NRN FLANK OF UPR RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE PLAINS. AT THE LLVLS...PERSISTENT WSW FLOW BTWN HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND AREA OF LO PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA IS ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY AIRMASS/AREA OF H85 TEMPS AOA 20C OVER MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL CONUS INTO THE UPR LKS. THE COMBINATION OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND THE UNSEASONABLE H85 WARMTH IS RESULTING IN SOME RECORD/NEAR RECORD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN THE 80S THIS AFTN AWAY FM LK MI MODERATION. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A POTENT SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...RESULTING IN 12HR H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 150M AND SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40-50 KTS OVER MONTANA. MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON FCST SURGE OF LLVL MSTR SHOWN BY SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS INTO THE UPR LKS TNGT AHEAD OF COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV TO THE W AND THEN POPS/WINDS ON MON AS POTENT SHRTWV NOW APRCHG THE NRN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPR LKS. TNGT...THIS EVNG WL BE MOCLR WITH WARM AND DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING. BUT OVERNGT AS UPR SHRTWV MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND INTO NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z...ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO SWING THRU THE WRN CWA AND REACH THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 12Z. DESPITE 12HR H5 HGT FALLS FCST UP 150-200M AND A BAND OF DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE FROPA WL BE A DRY ONE GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MSTR INFLOW. BUT SEVERAL OF THE SHORTER TERM MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM...INDICATE STRENGTHENING LLVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WL ADVECT MORE LLVL MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS AND BRING SOME LO CLDS. CONSIDERING THE WARMTH/DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS AND STEADY WINDS THAT WOULD RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL/INCRS IN NEAR SFC RH...FAVOR THE DRIER MODEL SCENARIOS THAT SHOW LOWER NEAR SFC RH/LESS IN THE WAY OF LO CLDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...W WINDS COULD GUST AS HI AS 25 TO 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH INCRSG CAA/ INSTABILITY. MON...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE SHRTWV AS A SECOND JET STREAK CORE DIGS INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY AND AMPLIFIES THE ACCOMPANYING UPR TROFFING. THIS JET CORE ALSO HAS RESULTED IN A SHARPER TRAILING SECOND SFC COLD FNT IN MN...WITH THE RESULT A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER SFC WINDS OVER UPR MI UNTIL THAT SECOND FNT/TROF PASSES LATE ON MON OR EVEN MON EVNG. SINCE THE LLVL WINDS WL BE WEAKER AND MORE BACKED TO THE SW AND H85 TEMPS DO NOT FALL AS QUICKLY WITH A HINT OF AN H85 THERMAL RDG AHEAD OF THE SECOND FNT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY...WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LESS EXPOSED KEWEENAW WL BE WEAKER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN. FOR THIS REASON...DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVY FOR THAT AREA UNTIL 00Z TUE. DRY SLOTTING FOLLOWING THE MRNG COLD FROPA WL GRDLY GIVE WAY TO MORE CLDS AS AREA OF HIER RH WITHIN DEEP CYC FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF CLOSED LO TRACKING THRU ONTARIO OVERSPREADS THE AREA. HI CHC/LIKELY POPS WL RETURN OVER THE W DURING THE AFTN WITH THE CORE OF THE DEEPER MSTR IN ADVANCE OF THE TRAILING SECOND COLD FNT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE MUCH LOWER THAN TDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKWASH MSTR/CLDS WL ARRIVE EARLIER FOLLOWING THE DRY SLOTTING...MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S WL STILL BE ABV NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 ...STRONGEST WINDS DELAYED BUT STILL WINDY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVING ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS PROGRESSIVE ATTM...BUT SYSTEM SLOWS CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS STRONGER JET STREAK AT H25 DIGS FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAJORITY OF MODELS HAVE LATCHED ON TO THIS MUCH SLOWER TREND WHICH DELAYS STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RESULTING ONSET OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR LK SUPERIOR UNTIL MONDAY EVENING AT THE EARLIEST. NO REAL CHANGE TO EXPECTED STRENGTH OF WINDS...JUST THE TIMING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 3-8C /LOWEST WEST/ AT 21Z ON MONDAY DOWN TO -2C TO 3C /LOWEST EAST/ AT 21Z ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH WINDS OF 35-45 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN GALES OVER LK SUPERIOR AND WINDS NEARING ADVISORY LEVEL AT SHORELINE AREAS OF KEWEENAW AND EVENTUALLY OVER ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES. STRONGEST WINDS ON KEWEENAW WOULD BE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE EAST CWA WOULD NOT SEE STRONGER WINDS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT LASTING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING. COORD WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER TO DELAY START OF WIND ADVISORY ON KEWEENAW 00Z TUE THROUGH 12Z TUE. GIVEN SLOWER TREND WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LINGERED HIGHER POPS LONGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS STILL FEATURED OVER EAST CWA ALONG TRACK OF SMALLER SHORTWAVE CROSSING LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO JUST AHEAD OF SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING. HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST INTERIOR SHOULD ALSO SEE THE MOST SHOWERS AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS WITH NNW WINDS PROVIDING UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THERE IS SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY AS DELTA T/S ARE OVER 8C. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMES MUCH SHALLOWER BY 12Z SO IT WILL TURN INTO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT SETUP. H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C OR AS LOW AS -2C WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN LEFTOVER CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH IN WAY OF RAIN. MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE FINISHED UP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. THERMAL TROUGH STILL IN THE AREA AND WINDS COMING OFF LK SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE LOW-MID 50S SCNTRL. REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMINATED BY SERIES OF TROUGHS DROPPING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES WED INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS TROUGH ALOFT PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST FORCING AND LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN. SOUNDINGS SHOWED FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERY. TEMPS MAY BOUNCE BACK SOME COMPARED TO THE TUE CHILL...BUT READINGS IN THE AFTN COULD FALL A FEW DEGREES NEAR LK SUPERIOR ONCE WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE. SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER THROUGH THU IN STEADY NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THU PM INTO THU NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR MORE ROBUST IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. 12Z GFS IS BACK TO SHOWING ARRIVAL ON FRIDAY WHILE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. KEPT MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT INLAND FROM GREAT LAKES WHEN THERE IS AT LEAST SOME AGREEMENT THAT IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT. IF COLDER GFS WOULD VERIFY FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...APPEARS THAT SUB H85 LAYER IS STILL TOO WARM ENOUGH WITH WBZERO ABOVE 1KFT TO SUPPORT ADDING ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX ATTM. TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES IN THE AFTN ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. LOW-MID 40S WILL BE COMMON NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TROUGHING ALOFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST BY NEXT SUNDAY TO END PRECIP CHANCES AND RESULT IN SLIGHT WARMING TREND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 AS APPROACHING COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL END. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW...THERE ARE SOME HINTS UPSTREAM THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO FROPA. SINCE A BKN MVFR CLOUD DECK HAS NOT YET ORGANIZED...WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SCT LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 2000FT. DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING. IN THE AFTN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WRAP INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN A BKN VFR CLOUD DECK FALLING TO MVFR IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN AT KIWD/KCMX AND IN THE EVENING AT KSAW. EXPECT SOME -SHRA TO DEVELOP AS WELL. FINALLY... EXPECT A FEW HRS OF GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30KT JUST AFTER FROPA OVERNIGHT AT KCMX. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSING THIS EVENING WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX SITE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015 SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE W LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SINCE THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL A ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER LAKES LATE MON/MON NIGHT... HAVE TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF THE GALE WARNINGS ISSUED EARLIER. SINCE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ENHANCE THE WSW WIND BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TO AT LEAST NEAR GALE FORCE...ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE TIMING WERE MADE FOR THAT AREA. SINCE THE PROGRESSION TO THE E OF THE SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/STRONGER NW WINDS HAS SLOWED...EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING EXPIRATION TIMES FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL WEAKER GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HI PRES RIDGE ARRIVES W-E ON TUE. WEAKER W TO NW WINDS UNDER 25 KTS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU WED. A PAIR OF LO PRES TROUGHS WILL PASS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT RIGHT NOW THE PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TROUGHS LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO HOLD WINDS UNDER 25 KTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267. GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266. GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ248-265. GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ243>245-264. GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ246-247. GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263. GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NWS WILMINGTON NC
348 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL OPEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. REINFORCING PUSHES OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS COMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...LATEST RAP MODEL RUN INDICATES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS SHOWN JUST OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR. FORCING FROM WELL UPSTREAM TODAY WILL FORCE THIS UPPER LOW TO OPEN UP AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA TODAY...AND TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL ILM NC AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN. BY MIDDAY AND THRU THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT TRACKS NE...STRADDLING THE COASTLINE AS IT MOVES. THE SMALL COLD POOL AND WEAK FORCING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. DURING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WILL AID IN SCOURING AND/OR THE DISSIPATION OF THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FA. VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ALSO ILLUSTRATE THIS. IF SKIES GO COMPLETELY CLEAR...LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY DEVELOP. WITH A LOW LEVEL 25 TO 30 KT JET PROGGED DURING THE MID TO LATE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS...WILL LEAN TOWARD A BETTER THREAT FOR THE LOW STRATUS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR. MODEL BLEND MOS GUIDANCE USED FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THRU TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A POTENT UPPER VORT DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG PVA AND AN INCREASE IN COLUMN MOISTURE...BUT ONLY TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...AND WHILE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY ISOLATED IN NATURE...TO SCATTERED AT WORST. WPC ACTUALLY KEEPS THE FROPA DRY LOCALLY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED SCHC POP WITH VERY LOW QPF DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...AND THE MID-LEVEL FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. FORTUNATELY...THIS SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT TO THE ONGOING FLOODING. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOILS REMAINING QUITE SATURATED THIS COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED DOWNED TREES ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF THESE HIGHER GUSTS MATERIALIZE...AND WILL ADD A MENTION OF THIS TO THE HWO. BEHIND THIS FRONT DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WAA...AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 80 TUESDAY AFTN. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE. MINS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 AT THE COAST TO THE MID 50S INLAND...AND THEN BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AREA-WIDE WED NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A RARE QUIET WEATHER PERIOD...FOR THIS OCTOBER ANYWAY...WILL FILL THE LONG TERM AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING DOMINATES ACROSS THE EAST AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS MIDWEST. INITIALLY...TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH LATE WEEK...AND WITH VERY LOW PWATS FORECAST...SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT...THIS ONE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG VORT LOBE PASSES TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE DRY...SIGNALS CONTINUE TO POINT TO STRONG CAA BEHIND IT...AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS...POSSIBLY THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON...ARE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WKND. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...SYNOPTICALLY AND AT THE MOMENT...A SFC STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW NEARLY OVERHEAD. WITH TIME...THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES OVERHEAD AND OFF TO THE NE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SATELLITE IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOWER CLOUDS OFF THE COAST SLOWLY EDGING BACK TOWARDS THE WEST AND ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LATEST RADAR MOSAICS ILLUSTRATE THE STRATIFORM RAINS WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS ALSO BACKING TO THE WEST. AT THIS POINT...WILL INDICATE POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS FROM LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM THE LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS. THE INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN PCPN-FREE...AND WILL ONLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW AND/OR MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENTS IN CEILINGS AND VSBY ACROSS THE FA BY MIDDAY AND CONTINUING THRU TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES NORTHEAST...TAKING THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW JUST OFFSHORE AWAY WITH IT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FA WILL CONTINUE THRU MIDDAY AS A SFC LOW JUST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR THIS MORNING...GETS JUMP-STARTED...AND ACCELERATES TO THE NE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NW TO W IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW...AND TO THE SW TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 10-15 KT THRU THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT COMPLEMENTS OF A 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT A FEW 5 FOOTERS OFF CAPE FEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WITH PERIODS OF 4 TO 6 SECONDS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. NO APPRECIABLE LONG PERIOD GROUND SWELL TO SPEAK OF. PATCHY TO AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS THRU TODAY. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING TUESDAY WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A PINCHED GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SW WINDS TO 20-25 KTS AND SEAS TO 3-5 FT...WITH ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN BY SLOWLY FALLING WIND SPEEDS TO 10- 15 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS DROPPING TO 2-3 FT WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK BRIEFLY TO THE WEST DURING WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR DROPS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE...BRINGING A RETURN TO NW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT...BUT 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE MID- WEST...WITH ITS PERIPHERY EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT REMAINS LIGHT...SO NORTH WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BACKING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...AND THIS FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF STRONGER NORTH WINDS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS RISING TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND NORTHERLY WIND CHOP COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DCH MARINE...DCH/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
321 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 .DISCUSSION... LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE WITH DEWPOINTS UP TO AROUND 50 AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. EASTERN AREAS REMAIN CLEAR AND THUS SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MORE DENSE FOG IS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BIG CHANGES WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM KANSAS CITY TO WEST OF GREEN BAY RACES SOUTHEAST AND CROSSES THE MID STATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. RAPID BUT WEAK WAA AND GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AREAWIDE AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS HRRR SHOWS...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AS FRONTAL FORCING ARRIVES. ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS MUCH HIGHER WITH PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS AND WILL SHOW HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...MAINLY IN THE 00Z-03Z TIMEFRAME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KTS BUT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY LESS THAN 500 J/KG DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS...SO NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS. AFTER TONIGHT...COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID OCTOBER FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BRINGING EVEN COOLER BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE CWA EVEN LOOKS LIKELY TO SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S BY SATURDAY NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 83 54 74 46 / 20 60 0 0 CLARKSVILLE 83 51 73 44 / 40 40 0 0 CROSSVILLE 74 53 68 43 / 10 60 0 0 COLUMBIA 82 52 73 43 / 20 60 0 0 LAWRENCEBURG 81 54 73 46 / 10 60 0 0 WAVERLY 82 51 73 44 / 40 40 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHAMBURGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1033 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 FOG HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED...AND WHAT IS LEFT HAS MOSTLY LIFTED INTO A STRATUS DECK AND SHOULD BE GONE SHORTLY. HAVE UPDATED TIMING OF CLOUD CLOUD INCREASE TODAY BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODELS. ALSO UPDATED THE TIMING OF THE POP TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND A BIT FASTER TO DEPART TONIGHT...BASED ON A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW 12Z NAM. UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT NOT AS BAD AS YESTERDAY MORNING. DID UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER FAR EAST KENTUCKY. TO THE NORTHWEST...A FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT APPROACHING KENTUCKY. THE HIGH HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR AND THIS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESTABLISHING A GOOD RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES. READINGS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE EAST WHILE RIDGES ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S. DEW POINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIR MIXED UP AT MOST OF THE OBS SITES...KEEPING THE FOG AT BAY...SO FAR. STILL EXPECT RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAWN. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH ITS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING ITS ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN ITS WAKE...LATER TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE STATE AS THE TROUGH/S ENERGY MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATING LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE AROUND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE AS A MAINLY DRY ONE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BREAKOUT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN SOME SHEAR AND LIMITED...BUT NON-ZERO... INSTABILITY. THIS FRONT...AND WHATEVER CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES IT...MOVES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY IN THE EVENING WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF QPF ANTICIPATED. COOLER WEATHER MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EVEN AS SOME SUNSHINE RETURNS. THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH TUESDAY. DID HAVE TO MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT...RELATIVE ELEVATION BASED...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN SOME SMALLER TWEAKS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE DRIER SIDE OF A RAPIDLY CLIMBING MOS CONSENSUS FOR THE FROPA THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE CARRIED SINGLE DIGITS POPS...IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM. THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LARGE SCALE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE THEN FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH...BRINGING WITH THEM REPEATED SHOTS OF COLD CANADIAN AIR THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. IN THE MEANTIME...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE THE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY TIME FRAME...WHEN A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE SURFACE RIDGES BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND MOVES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PROVIDED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR FIRST MAJOR FROST EVENTS OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST NIGHTS FOR FROST WILL BE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...WHEN WE WILL BE SEEING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S UNDER CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN OUR VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME MIN READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S IN OUR VALLEYS...AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE ALOFT BRINGS A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE TWO NIGHTS COULD POSSIBLE SEE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAXES IN THE UPPER 60S EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...A COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT BRING REPEATED ROUNDS OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE AREA STAYING VFR WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN THE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM JUST AS THAT FRONT GOES THROUGH IN THE EVENING. EXCEPT FOR FROPA...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K FT THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAL SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
810 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT NOT AS BAD AS YESTERDAY MORNING. DID UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER FAR EAST KENTUCKY. TO THE NORTHWEST...A FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT APPROACHING KENTUCKY. THE HIGH HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP THE SKIES CLEAR AND THIS ALLOWED FOR A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESTABLISHING A GOOD RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES. READINGS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS IN THE EAST WHILE RIDGES ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO KEEP THE AIR MIXED UP AT MOST OF THE OBS SITES...KEEPING THE FOG AT BAY...SO FAR. STILL EXPECT RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM AND BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARD DAWN. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH ITS TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE CORE OF THIS FEATURE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING ITS ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN ITS WAKE...LATER TUESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND OVER THE STATE AS THE TROUGH/S ENERGY MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATING LATER THIS MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE AROUND BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE STATE AS A MAINLY DRY ONE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BREAKOUT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN SOME SHEAR AND LIMITED...BUT NON-ZERO... INSTABILITY. THIS FRONT...AND WHATEVER CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES IT...MOVES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY IN THE EVENING WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF QPF ANTICIPATED. COOLER WEATHER MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EVEN AS SOME SUNSHINE RETURNS. THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH TUESDAY. DID HAVE TO MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT...RELATIVE ELEVATION BASED...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN SOME SMALLER TWEAKS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE DRIER SIDE OF A RAPIDLY CLIMBING MOS CONSENSUS FOR THE FROPA THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE CARRIED SINGLE DIGITS POPS...IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM. THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LARGE SCALE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE THEN FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH...BRINGING WITH THEM REPEATED SHOTS OF COLD CANADIAN AIR THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. IN THE MEANTIME...A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE THE THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY TIME FRAME...WHEN A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE SURFACE RIDGES BREAKS DOWN A BIT AND MOVES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHILE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES PROVIDED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR FIRST MAJOR FROST EVENTS OF THE EARLY FALL SEASON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST NIGHTS FOR FROST WILL BE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...WHEN WE WILL BE SEEING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S UNDER CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN OUR VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME MIN READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE EVEN COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S IN OUR VALLEYS...AS A PASSING SHORT WAVE ALOFT BRINGS A SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE TWO NIGHTS COULD POSSIBLE SEE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAXES IN THE UPPER 60S EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...A COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALOFT BRING REPEATED ROUNDS OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE AREA STAYING VFR WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN THE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM JUST AS THAT FRONT GOES THROUGH IN THE EVENING. EXCEPT FOR FROPA...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K FT THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
641 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 .AVIATION... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES. WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...VEERING TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA 21-01Z. NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO DIMINISH UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A RAPID DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS LATE AS WIND GUSTS PICK BACK UP TO 20+KTS AND MVFR STRATUS OVERSPREADS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. FOR DTW...BRIEF WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, IMPACTFUL CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 09Z. COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE DTW WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A VEERING OF WINDS TO 240 DEGREES AT APPROXIMATELY 00Z. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT THIS AFTN. HIGH AFTER 10Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 407 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DIURNAL MIXING COMMENCES, WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS YESTERDAY SUGGEST RAISING FORECAST HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY. MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE EASILY ACHIEVABLE WITH 80 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE METRO AREA. AS IMPRESSIVE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IN REGARD TO STRENGTH, IT IS EQUALLY UNIMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM. MODEL PROGS INDICATE JUST A THIN LAYER OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT AROUND 3KFT AGL STRINGING NORTH IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THIS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A SECOND SOURCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL, BUT IT IS ALSO UNLIKELY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT. CONVERGENT AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR, AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS AS IT HAS STARTED TO PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY IN THE POST-SURFACE FRONT ENVIRONMENT. 22Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING AT KPTK CAPTURES THE ENVIRONMENT WELL AND CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DRY AIR WILL ALREADY BE FULLY IN PLACE BELOW 10KFT. THEREFORE, THE DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. A MODEST WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO W WILL ACCOMPANY AFTERNOON FROPA BUT SURFACE COLD AIR WILL LAG BY A WIDE MARGIN. AS A RESULT, EXPECT DIURNAL GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH AS USUAL WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSET, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL CWA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. COLD ADVECTION AT 925MB AND BELOW WILL GET UNDERWAY IN EARNEST BY AROUND 06Z, MIXING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. BY SUNRISE TUESDAY, EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND WESTERLY WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH. LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY A STEADY AND CONTINUOUS SUPPRESSION OF GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE COMPLETE WITH A RETURN OF HIGH FREQUENCY/AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES. THE STRONG PV ANOMALY RESIDING WITHIN A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON TO START THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY. SOME INCREASE IN THE WAVLENGTH OF THE FEATURE WILL KEEP IT OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY CHARTS SUGGEST SOME DURATION OF FAIRLY STRONG MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT DON/T REALLY THINK IT WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT WITH REGARDS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE DRIVER FOR THE WEATHER ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE OVERWHELMING CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS TARGET STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SATURATION IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER. THIS WILL BE GOOD FOR OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A MENTION OF SPRINKLES WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER. CAMS AND NAM CONVERGENCE FIELDS HIGHLIGHT THE BEST POTENTIAL TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 94 AND AREAS DOWNWIND OF SAGINAW BAY WITH A LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR CONNECTION. GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUD...WENT VERY AGGRESIVE WITH LOWERING OFF OF GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY TEMEPRATURES. THE OUTGOING FORECAST WILL CALL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STUCK IN THE 50S. IN ADDITION...WENT VERY AGGRESSIVE FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MOVE MUCH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. A CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD IS SET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A CONFLICTING SETUP. SPECIFICALLY...WILL BE LOOKING AT A VERY STRONG JET CORE SNAKING/CARVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDATLANTIC. THE CONFLICT STEMS FROM A LACK OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION/DEEP SATURATION RESIDING TO THE NORTH OF THE JET AXIS/EXIT REGION. INSTEAD...MODELS ADVERTISE A FAIRLY TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. PROBABLY SOME RESULT OF A DOUBLE JET CORE CONFIGURATION. SO THE QUESTION REALLY COMES DOWN TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN DOWNWARD AND ERODE THE EXISTING STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN SOME FEEDBACK LOOP WHERE CLOUD BECOMES LESS OPTICALLY THICK WHICH CAUSES MIXING HEIGHTS TO RISE ENOUGH TO CAUSE CLOUD EROSION. WILL STICK TO THE THEME HERE AND GO AGGRESSIVE/PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS REALLY ON THE WARM SIDE FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT WILL STICK TO THE 50S. GIVEN THE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEPTHS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ACTIVE MARINE PERIOD THIS WEEK. DEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AREWIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ST CLAIR AND THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE BEGINNING THIS EVENING. A GALE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR POTENTIAL MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON PRIMARILY FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443. GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR LHZ361- 362. LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LCZ460. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....JVC SHORT TERM...JVC LONG TERM....CB MARINE.......CB YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
646 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL OPEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. REINFORCING PUSHES OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS COMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...THIS UPDATE MAINLY CONCERNED WITH UPDATING THE MORNING POPS BASED ON LATEST KLTX 88D TRENDS. THE LIGHT RAIN HAS FINALLY MOVED ONSHORE. HAVING MY DOUBTS THAT ANY PCPN OCCURS OR REACHES THE ILM SC COASTAL ZONES. BUT...AM BANKING ON THE UPPER LOW ITSELF MOVING OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTN TO PROVIDE THE DYNAMICS TO ATLEAST WARRANT A LOW POP. PREVIOUS.............................................. AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...LATEST RAP MODEL RUN INDICATES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS SHOWN JUST OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR. FORCING FROM WELL UPSTREAM TODAY WILL FORCE THIS UPPER LOW TO OPEN UP AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA TODAY...AND TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL ILM NC AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN. BY MIDDAY AND THRU THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT TRACKS NE...STRADDLING THE COASTLINE AS IT MOVES. THE SMALL COLD POOL AND WEAK FORCING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. DURING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WILL AID IN SCOURING AND/OR THE DISSIPATION OF THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FA. VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ALSO ILLUSTRATE THIS. IF SKIES GO COMPLETELY CLEAR...LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY DEVELOP. WITH A LOW LEVEL 25 TO 30 KT JET PROGGED DURING THE MID TO LATE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS...WILL LEAN TOWARD A BETTER THREAT FOR THE LOW STRATUS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR. MODEL BLEND MOS GUIDANCE USED FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THRU TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A POTENT UPPER VORT DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG PVA AND AN INCREASE IN COLUMN MOISTURE...BUT ONLY TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...AND WHILE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY ISOLATED IN NATURE...TO SCATTERED AT WORST. WPC ACTUALLY KEEPS THE FROPA DRY LOCALLY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED SCHC POP WITH VERY LOW QPF DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...AND THE MID-LEVEL FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. FORTUNATELY...THIS SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT TO THE ONGOING FLOODING. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOILS REMAINING QUITE SATURATED THIS COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED DOWNED TREES ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF THESE HIGHER GUSTS MATERIALIZE...AND WILL ADD A MENTION OF THIS TO THE HWO. BEHIND THIS FRONT DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WAA...AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 80 TUESDAY AFTN. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE. MINS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 AT THE COAST TO THE MID 50S INLAND...AND THEN BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AREA-WIDE WED NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A RARE QUIET WEATHER PERIOD...FOR THIS OCTOBER ANYWAY...WILL FILL THE LONG TERM AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING DOMINATES ACROSS THE EAST AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS MIDWEST. INITIALLY...TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH LATE WEEK...AND WITH VERY LOW PWATS FORECAST...SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT...THIS ONE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG VORT LOBE PASSES TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE DRY...SIGNALS CONTINUE TO POINT TO STRONG CAA BEHIND IT...AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS...POSSIBLY THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON...ARE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WKND. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...UPPER LOW OFFSHORE IS ROTATING LIGHT SHOWERS ONSHORE JUST SOUTH OF ILM. ILM COULD SEE SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY MATERIALIZE...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS PREDOMINATELY VFR. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FA WILL CONTINUE THRU MIDDAY AS A SFC LOW JUST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR THIS MORNING...GETS JUMP-STARTED...AND ACCELERATES TO THE NE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NW TO W IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW...AND TO THE SW TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 10-15 KT THRU THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT COMPLEMENTS OF A 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT A FEW 5 FOOTERS OFF CAPE FEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WITH PERIODS OF 4 TO 6 SECONDS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. NO APPRECIABLE LONG PERIOD GROUND SWELL TO SPEAK OF. PATCHY TO AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS THRU TODAY. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING TUESDAY WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A PINCHED GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SW WINDS TO 20-25 KTS AND SEAS TO 3-5 FT...WITH ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN BY SLOWLY FALLING WIND SPEEDS TO 10- 15 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS DROPPING TO 2-3 FT WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK BRIEFLY TO THE WEST DURING WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR DROPS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE...BRINGING A RETURN TO NW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT...BUT 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE MID- WEST...WITH ITS PERIPHERY EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT REMAINS LIGHT...SO NORTH WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BACKING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...AND THIS FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF STRONGER NORTH WINDS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS RISING TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND NORTHERLY WIND CHOP COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 615 AM MONDAY...LOWER CAPE FEAR PROGGED GAGE READINGS TO REACH 6.5 MLLW AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH OCCURS AROUND 1002 AM THIS MORNING. THIS FORECAST READING IS 1 FOOT ABOVE THE THRESHOLD...5.5 FT MLLW...FOR WHEN FLOODING OCCURS. EXPECT FLOODING TO OCCUR IN A 2 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW FROM 900 AM TO NOON. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL MARINE...JDW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NWS WILMINGTON NC
622 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL OPEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. REINFORCING PUSHES OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS COMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...LATEST RAP MODEL RUN INDICATES THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS SHOWN JUST OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR. FORCING FROM WELL UPSTREAM TODAY WILL FORCE THIS UPPER LOW TO OPEN UP AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA TODAY...AND TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AROUND CAPE HATTERAS NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE SFC LOW WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL ILM NC AREA THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN. BY MIDDAY AND THRU THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OPENING UP AS IT TRACKS NE...STRADDLING THE COASTLINE AS IT MOVES. THE SMALL COLD POOL AND WEAK FORCING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. DURING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WILL AID IN SCOURING AND/OR THE DISSIPATION OF THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FA. VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ALSO ILLUSTRATE THIS. IF SKIES GO COMPLETELY CLEAR...LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG MAY DEVELOP. WITH A LOW LEVEL 25 TO 30 KT JET PROGGED DURING THE MID TO LATE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS...WILL LEAN TOWARD A BETTER THREAT FOR THE LOW STRATUS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR. MODEL BLEND MOS GUIDANCE USED FOR BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS THRU TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A POTENT UPPER VORT DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG PVA AND AN INCREASE IN COLUMN MOISTURE...BUT ONLY TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...AND WHILE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY ISOLATED IN NATURE...TO SCATTERED AT WORST. WPC ACTUALLY KEEPS THE FROPA DRY LOCALLY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED SCHC POP WITH VERY LOW QPF DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...AND THE MID-LEVEL FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. FORTUNATELY...THIS SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT TO THE ONGOING FLOODING. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOILS REMAINING QUITE SATURATED THIS COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED DOWNED TREES ESPECIALLY IF SOME OF THESE HIGHER GUSTS MATERIALIZE...AND WILL ADD A MENTION OF THIS TO THE HWO. BEHIND THIS FRONT DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WAA...AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 80 TUESDAY AFTN. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER EVEN WITH FULL SUNSHINE. MINS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 AT THE COAST TO THE MID 50S INLAND...AND THEN BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AREA-WIDE WED NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A RARE QUIET WEATHER PERIOD...FOR THIS OCTOBER ANYWAY...WILL FILL THE LONG TERM AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING DOMINATES ACROSS THE EAST AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS MIDWEST. INITIALLY...TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH LATE WEEK...AND WITH VERY LOW PWATS FORECAST...SUNSHINE WILL BE ABUNDANT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT...THIS ONE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG VORT LOBE PASSES TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE DRY...SIGNALS CONTINUE TO POINT TO STRONG CAA BEHIND IT...AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS...POSSIBLY THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON...ARE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WKND. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...UPPER LOW OFFSHORE IS ROTATING LIGHT SHOWERS ONSHORE JUST SOUTH OF ILM. ILM COULD SEE SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY MATERIALIZE...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS PREDOMINATELY VFR. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FA WILL CONTINUE THRU MIDDAY AS A SFC LOW JUST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR THIS MORNING...GETS JUMP-STARTED...AND ACCELERATES TO THE NE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NW TO W IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW...AND TO THE SW TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 10-15 KT THRU THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT COMPLEMENTS OF A 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. SIGNIFICANT SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT A FEW 5 FOOTERS OFF CAPE FEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WITH PERIODS OF 4 TO 6 SECONDS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS. NO APPRECIABLE LONG PERIOD GROUND SWELL TO SPEAK OF. PATCHY TO AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS THRU TODAY. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHING TUESDAY WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A PINCHED GRADIENT WILL DRIVE SW WINDS TO 20-25 KTS AND SEAS TO 3-5 FT...WITH ISOLATED 6 FTERS POSSIBLE...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK WIND SHIFT TO THE NW...AND THEN BY SLOWLY FALLING WIND SPEEDS TO 10- 15 KTS ALONG WITH SEAS DROPPING TO 2-3 FT WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK BRIEFLY TO THE WEST DURING WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR DROPS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE...BRINGING A RETURN TO NW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2-3 FT...BUT 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...NORTH WINDS WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE MID- WEST...WITH ITS PERIPHERY EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT REMAINS LIGHT...SO NORTH WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF BACKING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY...AND THIS FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF STRONGER NORTH WINDS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS RISING TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT BOTH DAYS...WITH A SE GROUND SWELL AND NORTHERLY WIND CHOP COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43 MARINE...DCH/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1011 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 .MORNING UPDATE... DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE MORNING FOG WORDING. ALSO SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS ALL THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE PRECIP ENTERING OUR NW COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE 00Z HOUR. KEPT THE FEW HOURS OF LIKELY POPS TONIGHT AS THE COVERAGE OF THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMP/DEWPOINTS/SKY. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE WITH DEWPOINTS UP TO AROUND 50 AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. EASTERN AREAS REMAIN CLEAR AND THUS SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MORE DENSE FOG IS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BIG CHANGES WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM KANSAS CITY TO WEST OF GREEN BAY RACES SOUTHEAST AND CROSSES THE MID STATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. RAPID BUT WEAK WAA AND GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AREAWIDE AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS HRRR SHOWS...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AS FRONTAL FORCING ARRIVES. ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS MUCH HIGHER WITH PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS AND WILL SHOW HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...MAINLY IN THE 00Z-03Z TIMEFRAME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KTS BUT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY LESS THAN 500 J/KG DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS...SO NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS. AFTER TONIGHT...COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID OCTOBER FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BRINGING EVEN COOLER BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE CWA EVEN LOOKS LIKELY TO SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION. VFR. MVFR FOG MAY CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT KCSV THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND 14Z OR SO. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...AND IF HEAVIER SHOWERS IMPACT TERMINALS...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VIS MAY BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING FOR KCKV AND KBNA...AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR KCSV. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ AL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
627 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 .UPDATE... FOR 12Z AVIATION. && .DISCUSSION... LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE WITH DEWPOINTS UP TO AROUND 50 AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. EASTERN AREAS REMAIN CLEAR AND THUS SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MORE DENSE FOG IS EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BIG CHANGES WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM KANSAS CITY TO WEST OF GREEN BAY RACES SOUTHEAST AND CROSSES THE MID STATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. RAPID BUT WEAK WAA AND GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AREAWIDE AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN LOW 60S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS HRRR SHOWS...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AS FRONTAL FORCING ARRIVES. ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS MUCH HIGHER WITH PRECIP COVERAGE AND QPF VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS AND WILL SHOW HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...MAINLY IN THE 00Z-03Z TIMEFRAME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KTS BUT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY LESS THAN 500 J/KG DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS...SO NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS. AFTER TONIGHT...COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID OCTOBER FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BRINGING EVEN COOLER BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE CWA EVEN LOOKS LIKELY TO SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S BY SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION. VFR. MVFR FOG MAY CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT KCSV THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND 14Z OR SO. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...AND IF HEAVIER SHOWERS IMPACT TERMINALS...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VIS MAY BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING FOR KCKV AND KBNA...AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR KCSV. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT/TUESDAY... QUIET WX PATTERN AS DEEP WRLY FLOW OVER THE GOMEX PUSHES A WEAK/SHALLOW HIGH PRES RIDGE ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. DRY/STABLE AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE WITH A SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PREVAILING ARND THE H85 LVL...H85-H50 MEAN RH VALUES AOB 30PCT... DECREASING VORTICITY THRU THE H85-H30 LYR...AND A WEAKLY CONVERGENT H30-H20 LYR. LCL AIRMASS SHOULD DECOUPLE BY LATE EVNG AS THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD AND THE LCL PGRAD COLLAPSES. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-0.5KM MEAN RH IN THE NE GOMEX BTWN 70-80PCT...SUGGESTING PTCHY FOG ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR IN THE PREDAWN HRS. IMPACT SHOULD BE MINIMAL...HOWEVER...AS FOG FORMATIONS SUCH AS THIS DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT SUNRISE. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE U50S/L60S COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WNDS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ON THE SAME ORDER...WHILE WRLY WINDS ON TUE FLOW SHOULD PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE M80S. WED-THU... A WEAK DRY COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA WED AND CLEAR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA LATE OVERNIGHT WED. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING LIMITED DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO AROUND 850MB/5000 FEET AND LITTLE MID LEVEL VORTICITY FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH. CURRENT LESS THAN 15 POP STILL A GOOD CALL. FRI-SUN...(PREV DISC) THE 12/12Z MEX SHOWING POP 15 OR LESS FOR THE AREA THROUGH MON OCT 19TH. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRI S/SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE ELEVATED E/NE FLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM ONSHORE MOVING SHOWER BANDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST UP TO 30 TO 50 POP VERO BEACH SOUTH FRI THROUGH SUN PERCENT WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WITH DECREASING POPS FARTHER NORTH AND INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD AND MID-UPPER 60S FARTHER INLAND. && .AVIATION...THRU 13/18Z SFC WINDS: THRU 13/00Z...W/NW 8-12KTS. BTWN 13/00Z-13/03Z...BCMG W AOB 3KTS...CONTG THRU 13/13Z. AFT 13/13Z...W/SW 7-10KTS. VSBYS/WX/CIGS: BTWN 13/08Z-13/13Z...PTCHY STRATUS PRODUCING LCL IFR CIGS/MVFR BR N OF KMLB-KBOW. && .MARINE... TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LIGHT TO GENTLE WRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL AS A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GOMEX ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. WEAK PGRAD SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE S/SE NEAR THE COAST FROM THE CAPE SWD BY MID AFTN TUE...S/SW N OF THE CAPE. SEAS 2-3FT AREAWIDE...DOMINANT PDS ARND 7SEC TONIGHT AND ARND 8SEC ON TUESDAY. WED-FRI...OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO ONSHORE BY LATE WEEK AS A WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION MID WEEK AND WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1-3 FEET THROUGH FRI. SAT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE LATE SAT AS A LONG PERIOD SWELL DEVELOPS AND CONTRIBUTES TO THE COMBINED SEAS. SUN...CURRENT FORECAST FOR SHOWING NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS NORTH SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF AROUND 1033MB CENTERED OVER SW OHIO SE INDIANA BUILDING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FLORIDA STRAIT. SEAS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS BY BUILDING TO 5 TO 6 FEET SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN 6 TO 7 FEET OR MORE OVERNIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR WAS AT 3.0FT THIS MORNING...0.2FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STATE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT DELAND HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY JUST BELOW ACTION STAGE. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT THE APPROACHING NEW MOON AND A SMALL EAST SWELL WILL LIKELY KEEP ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS NEAR THE COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 63 84 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 63 86 67 88 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 64 84 68 87 / 10 10 10 10 VRB 62 84 67 86 / 10 10 10 10 LEE 63 86 67 87 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 62 87 67 87 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 64 87 68 87 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 63 84 67 87 / 10 10 10 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
141 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NW GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NW FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE FROM SE MONTANA ACROSS OUR CWA AND OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. REGARDING FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...RFW WAS ISSUED EARLIER BASED ON TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. AS EXPECTED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS HOWEVER WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (REFLECTED ON AREA VAD WIND PROFILES AND RAP SOUNDINGS)...THERE SHOULD BE 3HR OF RFW CRITERIA OVER EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WAS WHETHER 3HR CRITERIA WOULD BE MET FURTHER WEST. WHILE IT IS MARGINAL THERE IS STILL A SOLID WINDOW FOR RFW AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE WARNING. TONIGHT-TUESDAY...STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH NW FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL DESPITE A FEW PASSING WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND LOW TD VALUES WILL MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S DESPITE WAA ALOFT. LOW LYING VALLEYS AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY SEE ISOLATED FROST CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WITH UPPER LOW TRANSITIONING EASTWARD RISING HEIGHTS/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY NOT WARM UP QUITE AS MUCH...HOWEVER MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 80S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE SHOWING FOR THE MOST PART A PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WERE SOME AMPLIFICATION WAS TAKEN PLACE AND OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHERE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SYSTEM WERE LOCATED IN A MEAN TROUGH. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. THE SREF WAS STARTED OUT BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE MODELS TENDED TO START OUT TOO COLD. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND ECMWF WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE SO WOULD EXPECT A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR TEMPERATURES TOO COOL OFF...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS. SO LOWERED MINS ACCORDINGLY. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. RETURN FLOW/RECYCLED COOL AIR IS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE PRETTY CLOSE WITH PLENTY OF SUN EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR THE CLUSTERING OF THE GUIDANCE BUT TRENDING TOWARD THE COOLER ESPECIALLY MY EASTERN AREAS WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE RIDGE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH THE NEXT FRONT NOT TOO FAR AWAY. SO MINS WILL BE TRICKY. WINDS ARE MUCH LIGHTER IN THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. TENDED TO GO WITH THE SLIGHTLY BELOW THE GUIDANCE. THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY MID MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THEY DIFFER ON TIMING/VALUES...MODELS DO SHOW THE TEMPERATURES COOLING THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SO EARLY HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. TENDED TOWARD THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SINCE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR THAT. STILL MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN A SPLITTING TROUGH STARTS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS IS FASTER/LOWER WITH HEIGHTS THAN THE ECMWF. ENSEMBLES DIFFER ON THIS AS WELL. IN GENERAL THEY DO KEEP THIS TROUGH AS AN OPEN WAVE AND A LITTLE FASTER. IF THE FASTER SPEED DOES WORK OUT...TROUGH MAY BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...NOT SURE IF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE VERY MUCH MOISTURE OR DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT/SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. FOR THE MOST PART A DRY FORECAST IS STILL APPROPRIATE. HOWEVER...THE INIT GAVE ME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MY SOUTHERN PORTION SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. AT THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SO CONSIDERED THAT AND AFTER COLLABORATION...HAVE LEFT THAT IN. THERE LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A PRETTY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF SATURDAY WHEN A WARMUP STARTS. CONSIDERING THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE AND LIGHT WIND FIELD WOULD BE PLACE...BELIEVE THAT THE MINS THAT NIGHT WILL BE COLDER THAN WHAT THE INIT GAVE. SO AFTER COLLABORATION DID LOWER THE MINS. WINDS DO COME UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE EASTERN PORTION HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT. SO AFTER COLLABORATION...DID LOWER SLIGHTLY IN MY EASTERN/NORTHEAST LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF WHAT THE INIT GAVE ME LOOKS GOOD AND PLAN ON NO ADJUSTMENTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TRANSITION EASTWARD. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AT KGLD AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 18KT POSSIBLE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029. CO...NONE. NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...BULLER AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
123 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NW GREAT LAKES REGION WITH NW FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE FROM SE MONTANA ACROSS OUR CWA AND OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. REGARDING FIRE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...RFW WAS ISSUED EARLIER BASED ON TRENDS IN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBS. AS EXPECTED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS WESTERN LOCATIONS HOWEVER WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA (REFLECTED ON AREA VAD WIND PROFILES AND RAP SOUNDINGS)...THERE SHOULD BE 3HR OF RFW CRITERIA OVER EASTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WAS WHETHER 3HR CRITERIA WOULD BE MET FURTHER WEST. WHILE IT IS MARGINAL THERE IS STILL A SOLID WINDOW FOR RFW AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE WARNING. TONIGHT-TUESDAY...STRONG RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH NW FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA. DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL DESPITE A FEW PASSING WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES AND LOW TD VALUES WILL MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S DESPITE WAA ALOFT. LOW LYING VALLEYS AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS MAY SEE ISOLATED FROST CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO ADD TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WITH UPPER LOW TRANSITIONING EASTWARD RISING HEIGHTS/DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY NOT WARM UP QUITE AS MUCH...HOWEVER MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 80S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 231 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE A DISTURBANCE TRAVELS THROUGH THE FLOW NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY. DRY AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE FRONT FROM GENERATING PRECIP. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE CALIFORNIA UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE GFS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE HAS ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK IF ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTS TOWARDS THE REGION IN FRONT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE FORECAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON THURSDAY BEFORE THURSDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY INCREASING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY. LOWS APPEAR TO STEADILY WARM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TRANSITION EASTWARD. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS AT KGLD AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 18KT POSSIBLE. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029. CO...NONE. NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JBH AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
409 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT SHRTWV ALONG THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER MOVING TO THE E...BRINGING 00Z-12Z H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 240M AT INL. DESPITE THE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ATTENDANT COLD FNT MOVING THRU THE ERN CWA EARLY THIS AFTN IS PCPN FREE DUE TO DRYNESS OF THE MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB RAOB. SKIES HAVE TURNED MOSUNNY FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA UNDER DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...BUT AREA OF DEEPER MSTR DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL RAOB AND ASSOCIATED SECOND COLD FNT MOVING THRU MN ARE BRINGING MORE CLDS TO THE W HALF AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN LK SUP/NW WI. WSW WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING AS HI AS 30 TO 35 MPH AT SOME PLACES IN WI/WRN UPR MI THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SECOND COLD FNT...BUT STRONGER NW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSVD BEHIND THE SECOND FNT IN WRN MN/THE NRN PLAINS. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WINDS/NEED FOR WIND ADVYS AS WELL AS LAKE ENHANCED POPS. TNGT...SHRTWV MOVING E ALONG THE CNDN BORDER IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SLOWLY ESEWD OVER THE NE HALF OF LK SUP THIS EVNG. ALTHOUGH THE SHARPER DYANMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WL SLIDE TO THE N OF UPR MI...BACKWASH MSTR/SHARP CYC FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF SFC LO AND ATTENDANT SECOND COLD FNT WL BRING SOME SHOWERS W-E LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. AS SHARPER CYC NNW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND H85 TEMPS SLOWLY COOL BEHIND THE FROPA...SCT TO NMRS LK ENHANCED SHOWERS WL LINGER DOWNWIND OF LK SUP UNDER THE DEEP MSTR IN SPITE OF LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. THE PRES GRADIENT/H925 WINDS SPEEDS ARE FCST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY WITH TIME THRU THE NGT...SO WINDS OVER UPR MI WL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE 50 MPH GUSTS OBSVD UPSTREAM. THE CAA BEHIND THE FROPA AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION BEHIND THE FNT ARE ALSO FCST TO BE MODERATE...BUT OPTED TO RETAIN GOING WIND ADVY FOR THE KEWEENAW GIVEN FAVORABLE EXPOSURE AND APRCH OF PRES RISE CENTER/STRONGER ISALLOBARIC WIND AIMED AT THAT AREA IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. TUE...SHARP PRES GRADIENT AND RIBBON OF STRONGER H925 NW WINDS UP TO 35 KTS ARE FCST TO BE OVER UPR MI AT 12Z TUE. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TRAILING/WEAKENING PRES RISE CENTER BY 18Z...THE PRES GRADIENT WL SLOWLY DIMINISH. CONSIDERED A WIND ADVY FOR THE MORE EXPOSED ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES...BUT OPTED TO NOT ISSUE ATTM GIVEN SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES RISE CENTER/GRADIENT AND MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WL PERSIST THRU THE DAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF PRES RISE CENTER AT 18Z. UPR MI WL REMAIN UNDER H85 THERMAL TROF WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING AS LO AS ABOUT -2C IN LLVL NW FLOW AHEAD OF HI PRES MOVING INTO MN...SO EXPECT LOTS OF CLDS TO LINGER EVEN IF THE SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISHES WITH LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE/WEAKENING CYC FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV. WITH THE CLDS AND H85 THERMAL TROF...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE DEGREES FM THE MRNG LOWS. TUE WL FEEL MUCH MORE AUTUMNAL THAN RECENT DAYS EVEN IF THE WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH IN THE AFTN. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT)...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A POCKET OF 850MB TEMPS AROUND -1 TO -2C OVER THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS/CLOUDS (LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S) TO CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT BELTS IN THE EVENING EAST AND THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE EAST...BUT THE WEST AND AREAS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING. THAT CLEARING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TOWARDS FREEZING. THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH OR MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND 850MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE. WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SHOULD SEE HIGHS REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL STAY PRIMIARLY OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS MOISTURE STARVED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLOUDS BRUSHING THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER TOWARDS LUCE COUNTY. A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA) WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN...IT WILL DEVELOP A LOW ALONG THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH (STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION) AND QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY. IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH (BEST FORCING/MOISTURE STAYS TO THE SOUTH)...BUT IT WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THAT COLDER AIR (850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -9C BY FRIDAY NIGHT) AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION. THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND AREAS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND THIRD SHORTWAVE. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND ALLOW WARMER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE DIURNAL DISRUPTION TO THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITAION AND AIDED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING/DRYING AHEAD OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR SURGING IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR AREAS OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL U.P.. PRECIPITATION TYPE ON FRIDAY LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVIAL OF THE COLDEST AIR (WITH THE 00Z ECMWF TRAILING THE 12Z GFS BY AROUND 6HRS BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT). THAT QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR WOULD PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO REMAIN MIXED IN WITH RAIN OVER THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY DUE TO 1000-850MB THICKNESSES (FALLING BELOW 1300)...CLOUD MOVING INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...AND WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS (FALLING BELOW 700FT). HAVE SHOWN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITIONED TO ALL SNOW HEADING INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY/LEAF COVERED SURFACES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND NORTH CENTRAL ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BACKING WINDS SUNDAY AND FLOW BECOMING ZONAL ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING A BROAD LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE BOTH TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT BOTH ARE CONSISTENT IN IT BEING VERY NEAR THE U.P.. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 AS DEEPER MSTR UNDER SHARP CYC FLOW OVERSPREADS UPR MI W-E THIS AFTN AHEAD OF A LO PRES TROF...EXPECT CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR W-E...FIRST AT IWD BY 20Z AND LAST AT SAW ARND 01Z TUE. GUSTY WSW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS WL SHIFT TO THE NW AND GUST AS HI AS 30-35 KTS TNGT UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AND AHEAD OF A PRES RISE CENTER BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. THESE WINDS WL GRDLY DIMINISH ON TUE MRNG AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTENING OVER LK SUP IN THE CYC FLOW...MVFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THRU THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL 3 SITES. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 EXPECT WIDESPREAD NW GALES TO 35 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER THE E HALF OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT/ARRIVAL OF SHARPER PRES GRADIENT. THESE GALES WILL THEN DIMINISH W-E ON TUE WITH THE APPROACH OF A HI PRES RDG/WEAKER GRADIENT. A TYPICAL FALL PATTERN WILL THEN DOMINATE THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH PASSAGE OF SEVERAL LO PRES TROUGHS. SHIFTING WINDS WILL BE UP TO 25-30 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER WINDS AND SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS WOULD BE ON THU NIGHT-FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SHARPER TROUGH. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267. GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266. GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ248-265. GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ244>247-264. GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240-241-263. GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ242-243. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
136 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 .AVIATION... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO ABOUT 26 KNOTS AND TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z AND GUSTS DIE OFF. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN PER REGIONAL RADAR. VERY DRY AIR THE LOWER LEVELS IS MAKING IT HARD FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND BEFORE EVAPORATING HOWEVER...AND EXPECTATION IS MOSTLY FOR VIRGA AND SPRINKLES AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WINDOW OF LOW-END VFR TO HIGH-END MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE DRIER AIR RETURNS ON THE BACKSIDE AND LIFTS CEILINGS ABOVE 5000 FEET ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY AND STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD DROP CEILINGS MORE SOLIDLY INTO MVFR CATEGORY AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR DTW...WINDOW FOR CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BRIEF...OCCURRING IN THE 19Z TO 00Z TIMEFRAME. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS TO FALL AS LOW AS HIGH-END MVFR. OTHERWISE...SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 21Z BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINAL. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP CEILINGS TO MVFR AND BRING GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST AFTER ABOUT 10Z. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY HIGH WITH CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1243 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 UPDATE... RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF RETURNS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STRONGLY SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND...AND GIVEN DRY AIR IN 12Z RAOBS...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A WINDOW OF SPRINKLES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO ECLIPSE 70 DEGREES ALREADY IN MOST LOCATIONS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE OVERNIGHT STILL EXPECTED...BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND GUSTY CONDITIONS AGAIN BY SUNRISE. PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 407 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DIURNAL MIXING COMMENCES, WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS YESTERDAY SUGGEST RAISING FORECAST HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY. MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE EASILY ACHIEVABLE WITH 80 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE METRO AREA. AS IMPRESSIVE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IN REGARD TO STRENGTH, IT IS EQUALLY UNIMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM. MODEL PROGS INDICATE JUST A THIN LAYER OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT AROUND 3KFT AGL STRINGING NORTH IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THIS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A SECOND SOURCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL, BUT IT IS ALSO UNLIKELY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT. CONVERGENT AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR, AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS AS IT HAS STARTED TO PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY IN THE POST-SURFACE FRONT ENVIRONMENT. 22Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING AT KPTK CAPTURES THE ENVIRONMENT WELL AND CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DRY AIR WILL ALREADY BE FULLY IN PLACE BELOW 10KFT. THEREFORE, THE DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. A MODEST WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO W WILL ACCOMPANY AFTERNOON FROPA BUT SURFACE COLD AIR WILL LAG BY A WIDE MARGIN. AS A RESULT, EXPECT DIURNAL GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH AS USUAL WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSET, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL CWA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. COLD ADVECTION AT 925MB AND BELOW WILL GET UNDERWAY IN EARNEST BY AROUND 06Z, MIXING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. BY SUNRISE TUESDAY, EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND WESTERLY WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH. LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY A STEADY AND CONTINUOUS SUPPRESSION OF GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE COMPLETE WITH A RETURN OF HIGH FREQUENCY/AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES. THE STRONG PV ANOMALY RESIDING WITHIN A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON TO START THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY. SOME INCREASE IN THE WAVELENGTH OF THE FEATURE WILL KEEP IT OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY CHARTS SUGGEST SOME DURATION OF FAIRLY STRONG MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT DON/T REALLY THINK IT WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT WITH REGARDS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE DRIVER FOR THE WEATHER ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE OVERWHELMING CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS TARGET STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SATURATION IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER. THIS WILL BE GOOD FOR OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A MENTION OF SPRINKLES WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER. CAMS AND NAM CONVERGENCE FIELDS HIGHLIGHT THE BEST POTENTIAL TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 94 AND AREAS DOWNWIND OF SAGINAW BAY WITH A LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR CONNECTION. GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUD...WENT VERY AGRESSIVE WITH LOWERING OFF OF GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY TEMPERATURES. THE OUTGOING FORECAST WILL CALL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STUCK IN THE 50S. IN ADDITION...WENT VERY AGGRESSIVE FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MOVE MUCH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. A CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD IS SET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A CONFLICTING SETUP. SPECIFICALLY...WILL BE LOOKING AT A VERY STRONG JET CORE SNAKING/CARVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDATLANTIC. THE CONFLICT STEMS FROM A LACK OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION/DEEP SATURATION RESIDING TO THE NORTH OF THE JET AXIS/EXIT REGION. INSTEAD...MODELS ADVERTISE A FAIRLY TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. PROBABLY SOME RESULT OF A DOUBLE JET CORE CONFIGURATION. SO THE QUESTION REALLY COMES DOWN TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN DOWNWARD AND ERODE THE EXISTING STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN SOME FEEDBACK LOOP WHERE CLOUD BECOMES LESS OPTICALLY THICK WHICH CAUSES MIXING HEIGHTS TO RISE ENOUGH TO CAUSE CLOUD EROSION. WILL STICK TO THE THEME HERE AND GO AGGRESSIVE/PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS REALLY ON THE WARM SIDE FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT WILL STICK TO THE 50S. GIVEN THE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEPTHS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ACTIVE MARINE PERIOD THIS WEEK. DEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ST CLAIR AND THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE BEGINNING THIS EVENING. A GALE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR POTENTIAL MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON PRIMARILY FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443. GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR LHZ361- 362. LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LCZ460. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....HLO UPDATE.......HLO SHORT TERM...JVC LONG TERM....CB MARINE.......CB YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1243 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 .UPDATE... RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF RETURNS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE INITIAL COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STRONGLY SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND...AND GIVEN DRY AIR IN 12Z RAOBS...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE A WINDOW OF SPRINKLES FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO ECLIPSE 70 DEGREES ALREADY IN MOST LOCATIONS. FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. BETTER PUSH OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE OVERNIGHT STILL EXPECTED...BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND GUSTY CONDITIONS AGAIN BY SUNRISE. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 641 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ONCE MIXING COMMENCES. WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...VEERING TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA 21-01Z. NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO DIMINISH UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING A RAPID DETERIORATION IN CONDITIONS LATE AS WIND GUSTS PICK BACK UP TO 20+KTS AND MVFR STRATUS OVERSPREADS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. FOR DTW...BRIEF WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, IMPACTFUL CLOUD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 09Z. COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE DTW WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A VEERING OF WINDS TO 240 DEGREES AT APPROXIMATELY 00Z. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * MEDIUM FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT THIS AFTN. HIGH AFTER 10Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 407 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONG CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DIURNAL MIXING COMMENCES, WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS YESTERDAY SUGGEST RAISING FORECAST HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY. MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE EASILY ACHIEVABLE WITH 80 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE METRO AREA. AS IMPRESSIVE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS IN REGARD TO STRENGTH, IT IS EQUALLY UNIMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM. MODEL PROGS INDICATE JUST A THIN LAYER OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT AROUND 3KFT AGL STRINGING NORTH IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, THIS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A SECOND SOURCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL, BUT IT IS ALSO UNLIKELY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT. CONVERGENT AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR, AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS AS IT HAS STARTED TO PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY IN THE POST-SURFACE FRONT ENVIRONMENT. 22Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING AT KPTK CAPTURES THE ENVIRONMENT WELL AND CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THAT NOTHING MORE THAN VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DRY AIR WILL ALREADY BE FULLY IN PLACE BELOW 10KFT. THEREFORE, THE DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. A MODEST WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO W WILL ACCOMPANY AFTERNOON FROPA BUT SURFACE COLD AIR WILL LAG BY A WIDE MARGIN. AS A RESULT, EXPECT DIURNAL GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH AS USUAL WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNSET, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL CWA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST. COLD ADVECTION AT 925MB AND BELOW WILL GET UNDERWAY IN EARNEST BY AROUND 06Z, MIXING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. BY SUNRISE TUESDAY, EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND WESTERLY WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH. LONG TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY A STEADY AND CONTINUOUS SUPPRESSION OF GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE COMPLETE WITH A RETURN OF HIGH FREQUENCY/AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES. THE STRONG PV ANOMALY RESIDING WITHIN A DEEP MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON TO START THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY. SOME INCREASE IN THE WAVELENGTH OF THE FEATURE WILL KEEP IT OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY CHARTS SUGGEST SOME DURATION OF FAIRLY STRONG MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT DON/T REALLY THINK IT WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT WITH REGARDS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE DRIVER FOR THE WEATHER ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE OVERWHELMING CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS TARGET STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SATURATION IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER. THIS WILL BE GOOD FOR OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS. OPTED FOR A MENTION OF SPRINKLES WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER. CAMS AND NAM CONVERGENCE FIELDS HIGHLIGHT THE BEST POTENTIAL TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 94 AND AREAS DOWNWIND OF SAGINAW BAY WITH A LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR CONNECTION. GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUD...WENT VERY AGRESSIVE WITH LOWERING OFF OF GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY TEMPERATURES. THE OUTGOING FORECAST WILL CALL FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STUCK IN THE 50S. IN ADDITION...WENT VERY AGGRESSIVE FOR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND CLOUDS. NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MOVE MUCH WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. A CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD IS SET FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A CONFLICTING SETUP. SPECIFICALLY...WILL BE LOOKING AT A VERY STRONG JET CORE SNAKING/CARVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDATLANTIC. THE CONFLICT STEMS FROM A LACK OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION/DEEP SATURATION RESIDING TO THE NORTH OF THE JET AXIS/EXIT REGION. INSTEAD...MODELS ADVERTISE A FAIRLY TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF DEEP DRY AIR ADVECTION TO OCCUR DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. PROBABLY SOME RESULT OF A DOUBLE JET CORE CONFIGURATION. SO THE QUESTION REALLY COMES DOWN TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN DOWNWARD AND ERODE THE EXISTING STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN SOME FEEDBACK LOOP WHERE CLOUD BECOMES LESS OPTICALLY THICK WHICH CAUSES MIXING HEIGHTS TO RISE ENOUGH TO CAUSE CLOUD EROSION. WILL STICK TO THE THEME HERE AND GO AGGRESSIVE/PESSIMISTIC WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS REALLY ON THE WARM SIDE FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT WILL STICK TO THE 50S. GIVEN THE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEPTHS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME AN ACTIVE MARINE PERIOD THIS WEEK. DEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ST CLAIR AND THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE BEGINNING THIS EVENING. A GALE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR POTENTIAL MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON PRIMARILY FOR THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443. GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR LHZ361- 362. LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LCZ460. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ444. && $$ UPDATE.......HLO AVIATION.....JVC SHORT TERM...JVC LONG TERM....CB MARINE.......CB YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
317 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE VALUES. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THIS AFTERNOON DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT. A VERY THIN LINE OF SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE ILLINOIS/ INDIANA BORDER. NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW SHOWING A BIT OF CAPE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODELS ALSO A LITTLE BIT MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA. FORECAST PWATS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER NEAR 1.45". SURFACE CONVERGENCE STILL LOOKS RATHER WEAK AS SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE ONLY WEST WINDS EXIST BEHIND IT. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND VORTICITY ADVECTION HAVE BUMPED UP POPS (ESP. ACROSS EASTERN ZONES). THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST CLEARING THE CWA (AROUND 6 OR 8 AM) WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA THOUGH WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF MICHIGAN. RH FIELDS IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRATOCUMULUS AND CU MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ANOTHER WEDGE OF PVA MOVING OVERHEAD. PWATS ARE FORECASTED TO BELOW 0.5" SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. THANKS TO THE FORECASTED CLOUDS TUESDAY HAVE KEPT TREND OF LOWER MAX TEMPS. WINDS COULD AGAIN BE BREEZY TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHES EAST TUESDAY EVENING PUTTING ILN ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 850 TEMPS REMAIN NEAR 4 DEGREES C THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S TOWARDS THE NORTH AND MID 60S FURTHER SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAKING FOR A COOL THURSDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS IT DOES SOME WAA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO PUSH UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. IN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CAA...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 50S. FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO OVERHEAD BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. && && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE VICINITY OF TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT TAF SITES DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES PAST PEAK HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY FORECASTS INDICATE VFR WILL PERSIST EXCEPT AT LUK WHERE BR MAY FORM TEMPORARILY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING THE FRONT WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH DIRECTIONS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAINES NEAR TERM...HAINES SHORT TERM...HAINES LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...CONIGLIO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
622 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SEVERAL DAY STRING OF PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WHICH WILL LAST INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... CAN/T IMAGINE A MUCH NICER EARLY FALL AFTERNOON TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK AND CELEBRATE COLUMBUS DAY. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...YOU MAY STRAIN YOUR EYES ATTEMPTING TO LOOK FOR EVEN A STRAND OF CIRRUS ON THE WESTERN HORIZON...BUT WILL BE ABLE TO SEE FOR AS FAR AS THE TERRAIN AND EARTH/S CURVATURE WILL ALLOW YOU TO...IN THIS DRY AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR OR BELOW ONE- HALF OF AN INCH. TEMPS ARE NEAR THEIR FCST MAXES IN THE 70-75F RANGE...AND EVEN KIPT THAT WAS PLAGUED BY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z...JUMPED 3-4C/HR SINCE THEN AFTER THE STRONG LLVL INVERSION BROKE. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AOA 2200 FT MSL WILL STAY AROUND 67-68F. FOR TONIGHT...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 17Z HRRR AND 15Z SREF. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE CENTRAL COUNTIES BETWEEN 8-10Z...THEN ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. QPF LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE MILDEST WE/LL SEE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... CFROPA TUESDAY MORNING WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR ON BRISK WESTERLY WINDS...THAT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 20-25 KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SECONDARY CFRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NW MTNS PRIOR TO DUSK. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN MONDAY/S...AND WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NW MTNS TO THE L70S IN THE SE /WHERE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STILL HANG AROUND 10C DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EARLY CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND THEN A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE 850 MB TEMPS STEADILY DROP AND A LARGE AREA OF LOWERING STRATO CU MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MID TO LATE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z ENSEMBLES ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE MID TO LONG TERM AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER...WITH COLDER/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT LATE NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE A BUILDING RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD PROVIDE AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER THAT RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...FACILITATING IN BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AS THE ZONAL COMPONENT TO THE PACIFIC FLOW MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE NRN U.S. THIS RIDGE SHOULD ALSO CREATE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD FROM NW CANADA/YUKON TERRITORY TO EXPAND COLDER AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SEASONABLY COLD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE MONTH. THOUGH FLOW IS FAIRLY DRY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX THROUGH THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS LOWS DIP TO THE MID 30S. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CLEAR SKIES NOTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA AT 22Z AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. DETERIORATING CONDS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SSW FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT...COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVR THE NW MTNS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE IFR CIGS AT KBFD LATE TONIGHT. OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS...ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA...WHERE MCLEAR SKIES AND A NEARLY CALM WIND WILL LAST MOST OF THE NIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ARND DAWN IN VICINITY OF KMDT/KLNS. BASED ON OBS FROM PREV FEW MORNINGS...AS WELL AS LATEST MOS...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CONDS AT KMDT/KLNS ARND 12Z. LATEST MDL DATA TRACKS COLD FRONT THRU KBFD ARND 12Z AND KMDT/KLNS ARND 18Z TUE. IN WAKE OF FRONT...IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED AS WESTERLY FLOW DRAWS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. MDL SOUNDINGS AND SREF OUTPUT SUPPORT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BTWN 18Z-00Z. MOISTURE FLOWING OFF LK ERIE COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT KBFD BTWN 00Z-06Z WED. OUTLOOK... WED...MVFR CIGS/ISOLD -SHRA PSBL N/W. THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. FRI...PSBL COLD FROPA WITH SCT SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
330 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SEVERAL DAY STRING OF PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WHICH WILL LAST INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... CAN/T IMAGINE A MUCH NICER EARLY FALL AFTERNOON TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK AND CELEBRATE COLUMBUS DAY. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...YOU MAY STRAIN YOUR EYES ATTEMPTING TO LOOK FOR EVEN A STRAND OF CIRRUS ON THE WESTERN HORIZON...BUT WILL BE ABLE TO SEE FOR AS FAR AS THE TERRAIN AND EARTH/S CURVATURE WILL ALLOW YOU TO...IN THIS DRY AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR OR BELOW ONE- HALF OF AN INCH. TEMPS ARE NEAR THEIR FCST MAXES IN THE 70-75F RANGE...AND EVEN KIPT THAT WAS PLAGUED BY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z...JUMPED 3-4C/HR SINCE THEN AFTER THE STRONG LLVL INVERSION BROKE. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AOA 2200 FT MSL WILL STAY AROUND 67-68F. FOR TONIGHT...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 17Z HRRR AND 15Z SREF. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE CENTRAL COUNTIES BETWEEN 8-10Z...THEN ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. QPF LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE MILDEST WE/LL SEE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... CFROPA TUESDAY MORNING WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR ON BRISK WESTERLY WINDS...THAT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 20-25 KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SECONDARY CFRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NW MTNS PRIOR TO DUSK. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN MONDAY/S...AND WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NW MTNS TO THE L70S IN THE SE /WHERE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STILL HANG AROUND 10C DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EARLY CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND THEN A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE 850 MB TEMPS STEADILY DROP AND A LARGE AREA OF LOWERING STRATO CU MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MID TO LATE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z ENSEMBLES ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE MID TO LONG TERM AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER...WITH COLDER/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT LATE NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE A BUILDING RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD PROVIDE AN UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER THAT RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...FACILITATING IN BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AS THE ZONAL COMPONENT TO THE PACIFIC FLOW MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE NRN U.S. THIS RIDGE SHOULD ALSO CREATE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD FROM NW CANADA/YUKON TERRITORY TO EXPAND COLDER AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SEASONABLY COLD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE MONTH. THOUGH FLOW IS FAIRLY DRY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX THROUGH THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AS LOWS DIP TO THE MID 30S. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. SOUTH-SSW WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY WHILE WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 8-10 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. OUTLOOK... TONIGHT...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS. TUE...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS CENTRAL/EAST IN THE MORNING. MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION...BREAKING FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF VFR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR /WESTERN MTNS/ AND MVFR TO LOW END VFR STARTOCU ELSEWHERE TUESDAY EVENING. WED...MVFR CIGS/ISOLD -SHRA PSBL N/W. THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. FRI...PSBL COLD FROPA WITH SCT SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
324 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR SEVERAL DAY STRING OF PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WHICH WILL LAST INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... CAN/T IMAGINE A MUCH NICER EARLY FALL AFTERNOON TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK AND CELEBRATE COLUMBUS DAY. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...YOU MAY STRAIN YOUR EYES ATTEMPTING TO LOOK FOR EVEN A STRAND OF CIRRUS ON THE WESTERN HORIZON...BUT WILL BE ABLE TO SEE FOR AS FAR AS THE TERRAIN AND EARTH/S CURVATURE WILL ALLOW YOU TO...IN THIS DRY AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR OR BELOW ONE- HALF OF AN INCH. TEMPS ARE NEAR THEIR FCST MAXES IN THE 70-75F RANGE...AND EVEN KIPT THAT WAS PLAGUED BY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 15Z...JUMPED 3-4C/HR SINCE THEN AFTER THE STRONG LLVL INVERSION BROKE. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AOA 2200 FT MSL WILL STAY AROUND 67-68F. FOR TONIGHT...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ON THE TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND FEW HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 17Z HRRR AND 15Z SREF. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OF THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE CENTRAL COUNTIES BETWEEN 8-10Z...THEN ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. QPF LOOKS PRETTY LIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10-0.20 OF AN INCH. MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE MILDEST WE/LL SEE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... CFROPA TUESDAY MORNING WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR ON BRISK WESTERLY WINDS...THAT WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 20-25 KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SECONDARY CFRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NW MTNS PRIOR TO DUSK. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN MONDAY/S...AND WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NW MTNS TO THE L70S IN THE SE /WHERE 850 MB TEMPS WILL STILL HANG AROUND 10C DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EARLY CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND THEN A DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT WILL LEAD TO A SVRL HOUR PERIOD OF PTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE 850 MB TEMPS STEADILY DROP AND A LARGE AREA OF LOWERING STRATO CU MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MID TO LATE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE TREND OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING COLDER/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALL LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS BRINGING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AS THE ZONAL COMPONENT TO THE PACIFIC FLOW MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE NRN U.S. AND IS ESSENTIALLY REDUCED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS RIDGE SHOULD CREATE A MORE/BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SEWD FROM NW CANADA/YUKON TERRITORY TO EXPAND COLDER AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SEASONABLY COLD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE MONTH. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. SOUTH-SSW WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY WHILE WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 8-10 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. OUTLOOK... TONIGHT...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS. TUE...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS CENTRAL/EAST IN THE MORNING. MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION...BREAKING FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF VFR DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR /WESTERN MTNS/ AND MVFR TO LOW END VFR STARTOCU ELSEWHERE TUESDAY EVENING. WED...MVFR CIGS/ISOLD -SHRA PSBL N/W. THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. FRI...PSBL COLD FROPA WITH SCT SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...CERU/STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
240 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/MIXING DESPITE CLOUDINESS BRINGING 40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. GENERALLY 25 TO 30 SUSTAINED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...LESS EAST. WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE STAYED JUST UNDER CRITERIA...BUT SHOULD STAY WINDY/GUSTY THROUGH AT LEAST MID/LATE EVENING - PER RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EXTENDING THE ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING...BUT WITH CRITERIA MOSTLY BEING MISSED RIGHT NOW...AND PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO SEE IF AN EXTENSION WOULD BE WARRANTED. IF SO...PROBABLY ONLY TIL 9 PM. GRADIENT SLACKENS OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT BREEZY - BUT NOT AS WINDY - CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT...COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WERE SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHWEST WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...EXITING BY EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH...MOSTLY NORTH OF I-94 CORRIDOR...THOUGH 8- 9 PM OR SO. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 CONSENSUS IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS IS A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW A LOFT....WITH THE VARIOUS RIPPLES IN THE FLOW EITHER NORTH OR MOISTURE STARVED. ONE EXCEPTION IS A SHORTWAVE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THU. SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL SATURATION AND QG CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...WITH A SLUG OF LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING LEADING IT IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD RESULT...WITH THE HIGHER THREAT LIKELY NORTH. TEMPERATURES LOOK MOSTLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THU...BUT COLDER AIR IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA POST THE THU SYSTEM. NAEFS 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES HOVER AROUND -1 FOR FRI/SAT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE GFS/EC FROM -4 TO -6 C BY 12Z SAT MORNING. WITH A SFC HIGH BUILDING OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...SAT COULD BE A VERY CHILLY MORNING FOR THE REGION. A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IS POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2015 A LOW LOCATED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD WILL PRODUCE A 3 TO 5K FOOT DECK OF CLOUDS THROUGH 13.02Z AND THEN SKIES WILL BECOME MVFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...WIND ADVISORY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ079-086-087-094-095. IA...WIND ADVISORY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION.....BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1146 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 THE INHERITED RED FLAG WARNING IS LOOKING GOOD SO FAR WITH A FEW OBSERVATIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ALREADY SHOWING WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES QUICKLY FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT. IT IS BECOMING APPARENT THAT AREAS FARTHER EAST COULD EXCEED CRITERIA SHORTLY AFTER NOON. SEVERAL RAWS SITES ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS INDICATE GUSTY WINDS...BUT IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO GET RH VALUES BELOW CRITERIA. WE MAY GET CLOSE ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR FROM CHEYENNE TO COLEMAN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SHOW EXCELLENT MIXING WITH AT LEAST 30 KTS AVAILABLE...AND WITH HUMIDITIES ALREADY AT 14 PERCENT AT KCYS OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE MET LOCALLY. WE EXPANDED THE WARNING EAST TO INCLUDE FWZ 302-309-310. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FIRE-WEATHER-RELATED...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA FOR HIGHS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW LOW TEMPERATURES DROP EACH MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM THOUGH...WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME. MAY NEED A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT SINCE LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 32 TO 35 DEGREES ARE FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WHICH SUGGESTS FROST FOR THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. FURTHER WEST...EXPECT MILD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING DUE TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. MODELS DO INDICATE THE LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER AFTER MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. ONLY THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE NEAR ZERO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT AT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THURS WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER ON THURS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON THURS NIGHT...COULD BE LOOKING AT THE FIRST FREEZE FOR AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS MOS GUIDANCE HAS LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THE PATTERN ON FRI/SAT WILL FEATURE WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS MORE NORMAL FOR MID OCT (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S). AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD WY ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MIDLVL MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME WITH KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE SIERRA MADRE/SNOWY RANGES. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS MIN RH VALUES EACH AFTN WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WEAK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH SUNSET TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF WINDS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2015 CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED. THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED...AND NOW INCLUDES MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FWZ 301 AND THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGES. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND SLOWLY TREND HIGHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ302>304-306- 308>310. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CLH SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...ZF AVIATION...GCC FIRE WEATHER...CLH