Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/11/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
248 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015
...NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...
ANOTHER PLEASANT FALL DAY ACROSS SE CO. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A BROAD AND FLAT LEE
TROUGH BUILDING E OF THE MTS. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
THIS EVE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW OVER SRN WY AND UT MOVES THROUGH
THE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER ERN CO. SOME CU BUILD-UP CURRENTLY OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND LA GARITAS...SO WILL LEAVE LOW POPS INTACT FOR THE SW
MTS THIS EVE AS THIS AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP AT THIS TIME. LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER EL PASO THIS EVE...BUT NOT SEEING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CU IN THAT AREA RIGHT NOW SO WILL LEAVE POPS
SILENT OVER PIKES PEAK AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ONCE THE WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVE SHOULD SEE ALL BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT...CLEARING THE WAY FOR A DRY AND WARM SATURDAY.
TOMORROW...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR BUILDUPS POSSIBLY OVER THE SW
MTS...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY EVEN OVER THE MTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. WITH H7 TEMPS CLIMBING TO 13 OR 14
DEG C OVER THE PLAINS...WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH FORECAST MAX
TFOR KCOS AND KPUB OF 82 AND 87 RESPECTIVELY...AND RECORD MAX
TEMPS OF 84 AND 89 FOR THE SAME SITES. WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH NO STRONG DOWN-SLOPE EXPECTED...SO FEEL TI WILL BE TOUGH TO
BREAK THE RECORD HIGHS TOMORROW...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE...AND VERY
WARM WITH MAX TEMPS A GOOD 15 DEG OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE TOMORROW.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE START OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015
WITH A FLAT UPR RIDGE OVERHEAD ON SUN AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE
FLOW...DRY AND WARM WEATHER WL CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPS ON SUN ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...AND AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO REACHING RECORD HIGHS.
SUN NIGHT AS AN UPR TROF MOVES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES...A FRONT WL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SERN CO. THIS FRONT
WL BRING A BIG COOL DOWN FOR MON...BUT THE HIGH TEMPS WL STILL BE
AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. DRY CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE ON MON.
AN UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVR AZ AND THE GREAT BASIN TUE AND
WED...AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVR NM AND CO FOR THU AS AN UPR
TROF MOVES OVR SRN CA. A WEAK SFC FRONT MAY BACK INTO ERN CO EARLY
THU. THIS UPR RIDGE WL KEEP DRY AIR OVR THE AREA TUE THRU THU. ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT ON
THU WL LIKELY BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM TUE AND WED.
ON FRI...THE UPR TROF THAT WAS OVR CA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AZ
AND NV AND MAY PUSH A LITTLE MOISTURE INTO CO. AS A RESULT...THERE
COULD BE A FEW MOUNTAINS SHOWERS/TSTMS ON FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER
SE CO. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1124 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
...SLIGHTLY COOLER TOMORROW...
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER TODAY ACROSS SE CO. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...RIGHT AROUND 80 DEGREES AT KPUB OR
NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HAVE ALREADY REDUCED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LOW POPS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ARE IN JEOPARDY...WITH NO SIGN OF CONVECTION THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND RATON
AND SPANISH PEAKS REGION. THIS IS WHERE ENHANCED CU FIELD HAS BUILT
UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING AN ISOLD
SHOWER OR STORM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NRN CO AND SHOULD REACH THE PALMER DVD AND
THE REST OF SE CO AFTER 00Z. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
NAM...WHICH SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THE
HIGHER RES HRRR AND WRF MODELS...WHICH SHOW FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER RES SOLUTIONS
AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS AND ERN MTS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGINS OVER TELLER COUNTY AND THE PIKES PEAK
REGION...THEN SHIFT SWD WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...CLEARING THE
SRN ZONES BY 12Z OR SO. LOOKS MAINLY TO BE STRATIFORM PRECIP...SO
ANY LTG WITH STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLD AT BEST.
TOMORROW...AFTER EARLY MORNING STRATUS CLEARS...WILL BE ANOTHER DRY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR THE PLAINS. THE NAM
STILL SHOWS SOME SPOTTY AFTERNOON QPF OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPING THINGS
DRY ACROSS SE CO. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STRONGLY TO THE WEST
AND NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES EVIDENT IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL
KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW...AND THIS CAN BE REEVALUATED BY LATER
SHIFTS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING +10C OR HIGHER. ON
SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH SUNDAY BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER. ON SUNDAY GRIDS HAVE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ALS/75...COS/81...PUB/88.
RECORDS ARE....ALS/78...COS/82...PUB/89.
.MONDAY...WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...RESULTING IN SOME COOLING ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE
PLAINS. FORECAST HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THE PLAINS RISE INTO THE
80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH ARE 10F OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL. BY THURSDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING EASTWARD. SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD REACH WESTERN COLORADO...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED POPS TO THE SAN JUANS AND SAWATCH RANGE. SYSTEM WILL BE
MILD SO ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
--PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
OUTSIDE OF BRIEF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT KCOS
AND KPUB THIS EVENING...PROJECT THAT MVFR DECK(IN WAKE OF FRONT)
SHOULD BE NOTED AT TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT
KALS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT
BOTH KCOS AND KPUB FROM LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
335 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...A BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SURFACE PRESSURES TO RISE FOR A NICE AUTUMN WEEKEND WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THE COLUMBUS DAY HOLIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AT LEAST TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THE BACK EDGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACK STATE PARK. PER EXTRAPOLATION OF THESE SHOWERS ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY HRRR UPDATES...SEEMS A LINE OF CONVECTION MAY
EVOLVE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS MAINLY SOUTH OF I90. PER
THE SPC HOURLY ANALYSIS AND AWIPS LAPS DATA ALONG WITH THE SWOMCD
...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH RESPECT TO SBCAPES WERE INTO THE
LOWER 100S J/KG AND SHOWALTER VALUES WERE BETWEEN 0-1C. WIND
MAGNITUDES PER THE VWP WERE RESPECTABLE WITH 30-50KTS WITHIN THE
MID LEVELS. SO IF ANY DEEPER CONVECTION WERE TO
DEVELOP...POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR. PWATS REMAIN
ELEVATED WITH CURRENT VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.50 INCHES SO
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS REMAIN A CONCERN. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 70F YET WITH CLOUDS AND WET
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...NO MUCH CHANGE TO THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
FROPA OCCURS BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A BRISK WESTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP. CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECASTS SO LITTLE
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD
TO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S...BUT MAINLY UPPER 30S
FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD. SO
THERE COULD BE SOME FROST FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE MID 30S ARE FORECAST...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE
HWO.
THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY WITH SUNSHINE AND WARMING
ALOFT PROVIDED BY A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AS SURFACE
RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THEN MOVING
INTO THE LOWER 70S MONDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TOWARD +15C.
OTHERWISE...A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO COOLER WEATHER. IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY AFTER TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARD OUR REGION FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WITH THE
CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ON BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST
BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF
ALBANY...MID 60S LOCALLY IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.
BY WEDNESDAY...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 0C AS AS FAR SOUTH AS
I-90...A BIT COOLER TO THE NORTH. WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE
ALONG WITH A GUSTY BREEZE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOCALLY NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.
WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY LOOKS TO WORK THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY BRINGING OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. IT MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN PLACES
OVER 2500 FEET.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...COOLEST IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT COOLER ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...TO UPPER 50S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NY. WITH THIS FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING AT KGFL/KALB...WITH
SHOWERS MOVING INTO KPSF. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IFR/MVFR WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS AT THESE
SITES. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF
KPOU...BUT WILL BE IMPACTING THERE LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS THERE. SOME THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...BUT IT DOESN/T APPEAR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR KALB.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE W-NW AROUND 10 KTS.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING...BUT DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SHOULD
ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES FOR MOST OF TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
THIS BREEZE...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...SHOULD PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS. NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY TO COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS AT THIS TIME WITH WET CONDITIONS
DURING FRIDAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RH WILL INCREASE TO MAXIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES
OF AROUND 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 20
MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A STEADY RAIN TO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BE TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR. BEHIND THIS STORM
SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE COLUMBUS DAY WEEKEND...AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
249 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...THEN SETTLE TO THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST TO THE EAST MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NE
TO S CENTRAL PA AS OF 18Z. HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS LINE AS IT ENTERED OUR AREA...SO WAS USED FOR POP FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH THE LINE REACHING AREAS NORTH OF NYC BEFORE 5
PM...NYC METRO BETWEEN 5-7 PM...AND AREAS TO THE EAST LATER ON
THIS EVENING. EARLIER THINKING STILL HOLDS...AS SFC-BASED CAPE UP
TO 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KT COULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED SEGMENTS OF TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS.
AFTER HIGH TEMPS GET CLOSE TO 80 IN URBAN NE NJ...AND INTO THE
LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE ON A GUSTY SW FLOW...WINDS SHIFT NW-N
AFTER COLD FROPA AND REMAIN GUSTY IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE
COAST. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S TONIGHT...WITH 45-50 IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT...WITH GUSTY N
FLOW IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SW SEA BREEZES RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN THOSE OF TODAY...
MOSTLY IN THE 60S BUT POSSIBLY NEAR 70 IN URBAN NE NJ.
TEMPS WILL RESPOND QUICKLY TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER
SUNSET ON SAT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S IN NYC...40S MOST
ELSEWHERE...35-40 ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR WHERE
PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP...AND CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE COLDEST
SPOTS OF THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH JUST
SLIGHT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE H5 FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS E OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER THE SERN US. THIS CUTOFF WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUN BEFORE THE NEXT
AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH ABSORBS IT BACK INTO THE FLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A VORTEX OVER NRN CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE HUDSON BAY
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A MEAN TROUGH REMAINING
ACROSS THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL SETTLE TO THE S OVER
THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE. THIS SFC LOW WILL
TRACK UP THE EAST COAST...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW CLOSE TO
THE COAST IT WILL ACTUALLY BE...DUE TO SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES
ALOFT. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS THIS
PASSES THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT THEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS IT
MOVES THROUGH ON TUE. LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY TRIGGER AN
ISOLD SHOWER TUE NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHC MON NIGHT
AND TUE AS THERE SHOULD BE MEASURABLE PCPN WITH EITHER OF THESE
SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO NOT
THINKING A LOT OF QPF.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A MEAN UPPER TROUGH...THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THU.
HOWEVER...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL SPECIFICS CAN BE BETTER
RESOLVED.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MON/MON NIGHT WHEN TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PA WILL ARRIVE AROUND 21Z FOR
THE NYC TERMINALS...PLUS OR MINOR 1-2 HOURS IN THE SURROUNDING
TERMINALS.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFT/EARLY EVE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE FROM 23Z TO 02Z ACROSS TERMINAL FORECAST AREA.
GUSTY SW FLOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH JUST AHEAD OF FRONT.
POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW MAY FEATURE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST...BUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY TSRA/SHRA.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MAY BE UP TO AN HOUR
EARLY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MAY BE UP TO AN HOUR
EARLY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MAY BE UP TO AN HOUR
EARLY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MAY BE UP TO AN HOUR
EARLY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MAY BE UP TO AN HOUR
EARLY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MAY BE UP TO AN HOUR
EARLY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...VFR.
.TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHC OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT NY HARBOR AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.
SCA FOR THE ERN SOUND/BAY/HARBOR HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT...
AS POST-FRONTAL NW-N WINDS AFTER COLD FROPA SHOULD GUST UP TO
25 KT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE W.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ON TUE...AND IN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT. GUSTS UP TO
20 KT POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WITH SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF WITH COLD FROPA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS BETWEEN 1/4-1/2
INCH. LOCAL AMTS FROM 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
QPF WITH A COLD FROPA ON TUE IS ONLY ABOUT 1/10 INCH.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ345.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/24
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GOODMAN/24
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...A BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SURFACE PRESSURES TO RISE FOR A NICE AUTUMN WEEKEND WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THE COLUMBUS DAY HOLIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AT LEAST TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THE BACK EDGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACK STATE PARK. PER EXTRAPOLATION OF THESE SHOWERS ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY HRRR UPDATES...SEEMS A LINE OF CONVECTION MAY
EVOLVE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS MAINLY SOUTH OF I90. PER
THE SPC HOURLY ANALYSIS AND AWIPS LAPS DATA...INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WITH RESPECT TO SBCAPES WERE INTO THE LOWER 100S J/KG
AND SHOWALTER VALUES WERE BETWEEN 0-1C. WIND MAGNITUDES PER THE
VWP WERE RESPECTABLE WITH 30-50KTS WITHIN THE MID LEVELS. SO IF
ANY DEEPER CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP...POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS TO OCCUR. PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH CURRENT VALUES
AVERAGING AROUND 1.50 INCHES SO HEAVIER DOWNPOURS REMAIN A
CONCERN. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY HAVE RISEN TO
AROUND 70F YET WITH CLOUDS AND WET CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION...NO MUCH CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
FROPA OCCURS BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A BRISK WESTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP. CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECASTS SO LITTLE
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF ALBANY AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT TYPICAL FOR MID OCTOBER RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 60S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S...BUT MAINLY UPPER 30S
FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD. SO
THERE COULD BE SOME FROST FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE MID 30S ARE FORECAST...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE
HWO.
AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY
WITH SUNSHINE AND WARMING ALOFT PROVIDED BY A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND NEAR 60 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FOR COLUMBUS DAY EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
MILD TEMPERATURES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA DRY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EXPECT TWO COLD FRONTS TO CROSS THE FA
WITH THE FIRST FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND THE SECOND
COLD FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SECOND COLD
FRONT. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NY. WITH THIS FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING AT KGFL/KALB...WITH
SHOWERS MOVING INTO KPSF. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IFR/MVFR WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS AT THESE
SITES. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF
KPOU...BUT WILL BE IMPACTING THERE LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS THERE. SOME THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...BUT IT DOESN/T APPEAR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR KALB.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE W-NW AROUND 10 KTS.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING...BUT DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SHOULD
ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES FOR MOST OF TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
THIS BREEZE...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...SHOULD PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS. NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY TO COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS AT THIS TIME WITH WET CONDITIONS
DURING FRIDAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RH WILL INCREASE TO MAXIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES
OF AROUND 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 20
MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A STEADY RAIN TO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BE TAPERING TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...TO AROUND AN INCH
AND A QUARTER OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE
COLUMBUS DAY WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1001 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH...STEADY RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE STORM/S COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY. PRECIPITATION WILL END BY
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES AND WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1001 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN END
OF LAKE ONTARIO...IS IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING BY THE REGION TO
THE NORTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM/S WARM FRONT HAS
ALLOWED A STEADY RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SOME BURSTS OF MODERATE RAINFALL IN
SPOTS. MRMS RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE SHOWING ONE HALF INCH TO NEARLY
INCH FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
STEADIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN AROUND I-90...WITH MORE SHOWERY
RAINFALL FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND LITTLE
TO NO RAINFALL FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SO
FAR.
AS SEEN ON UPSTREAM RADARS AND SHOWN IN THE 3KM HRRR...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FOR LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THIS AFTN...AS THE STORM/S COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA...INCLUDING
SOUTHERN AREAS THAT HAVEN/T SEEN MUCH ACTIVITY YET.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK
HAS DEVELOPED AND BY THE TIME IT ERODES THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT MORE ROBUST
INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING. STILL ANY ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF
HEAVIER ECHOS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR ABOUT 3-5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON MOVING ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH. THIS
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE ISOLD THUNDER AND PERHAPS A STRONG
WIND GUST...BUT THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WINDS LOOKS FAIRLY
LOW.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. COOLER UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
CYCLONE. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AROUND 10-20 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTH AND WEST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF ALBANY AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT TYPICAL FOR MID OCTOBER RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 60S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S...BUT MAINLY UPPER 30S
FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD. SO
THERE COULD BE SOME FROST FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE MID 30S ARE FORECAST...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE
HWO.
AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY
WITH SUNSHINE AND WARMING ALOFT PROVIDED BY A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND NEAR 60 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FOR COLUMBUS DAY EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
MILD TEMPERATURES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA DRY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EXPECT TWO COLD FRONTS TO CROSS THE FA
WITH THE FIRST FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND THE SECOND
COLD FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SECOND COLD
FRONT. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO RAINFALL AND
STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BECOME VFR IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH SKIES BECOMING SCT LATE TONIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS THIS
MORNING THEN BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO 3-5 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY TO COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH...STEADY RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE STORM/S COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY. PRECIPITATION WILL END BY
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES AND WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ON SUNDAY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 85 PERCENT
TODAY. RH WILL INCREASE TO MAXIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 35 TO 45
PERCENT ON SATURDAY.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH...SHIFTING TO
THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A STEADY RAIN TO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BE TAPERING TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...TO AROUND AN INCH
AND A QUARTER OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE
COLUMBUS DAY WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES TOWARDS
THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ALONG A
PASSING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
155 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY AND
THEN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH DURING FRIDAY, AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
145 AM ESTF UPDATE...ADDED MORE FOG TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST, ISSUED
AN SPS FOR THE NJT REGION AND UPDATED THE HWO FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG
THAT HAD SUDDENLY DEVELOPED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM OVER A MORE
WIDESPREAD REGION THAN JUST KMIV.
EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY END THE
COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND I THINK ALSO REDUCE THE RISK
OF THICK FOG TOWARD DAWN. STILL LOOKING FOR SCT LIGHT SHOWERS TO
FORM/DEVELOP ON RADAR OVER EASTERN PA AROUND 6 AM IN THE
INSTABILITY BURST. LIGHT SOUTH WIND DEVELOPS.
TODAY...LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN FCST EXPECTATIONS AS PRESENTED IN
THURSDAY`S AFD`S. AFTER ANY SCT EARLY MORNING LIGHT SHOWERS END,
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. A DECK OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE VCNTY KRDG-
KABE-KFWN WESTWARD AT DAYBREAK SHOULD LIFT AND THIN BY 16Z. MLCAPE
OF 300-700J, NOT TOO SHABBY FOR OCTOBER, COMBINED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SET OFF AROUND 70 PCT COVERAGE OF
MEASURABLE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
PROBABLY DEPICTED SOON BY THE HRRR AND PREVIOUSLY MODELED BY 12Z/8
SPC WRF AND NOW ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MODELED BY THE 00Z/9 SPC WRF
AND NSSL WRF. BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT BUT STRONG 40 KT WINDS AT
500MB SUGGEST POTENCY. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS REACHES THE
COASTS BY 00Z.
PWAT INCREASING FROM 1" NOW TO 1.6" THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOME
OF THE RAIN WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY.
FCST WILL HAVE CHANCE TSTM HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS TODAY 78 TO 83F NEAR I-95 SEWD WITH SW WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE WATERS EDGE, ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY COUNTY
AND OF COURSE NOT QUITE AS WARM IN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY
NJ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AGAIN NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY WRITTEN THURSDAY
AFD SCENARIO. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS NEAR THE CF AT 8
PM THIS FRIDAY EVENING (MAINLY SE NJ AND THE SRN PORTION OF THE
DELMARVA) SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO SEA ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH CLOUD OVER MAY REMAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE COOLING AND DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS GUSTY TO 20 MPH BECOMING NORTHERLY TOWARD
MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
THE MEAN 500 HPA PATTERN IN D+2 TO D+7 PERIOD FEATURES A RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE MAIN PLAYERS AFFECTING THE
OUTCOME OF THE PATTERN ARE A SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE CARVES
OUT A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST IN THE SATURDAY
THRU TUESDAY PERIOD. MEANWHILE, THE SECOND SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ON TUESDAY, WHILE THE RESULTANT HEIGHT
FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE.
AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT, IT WILL
STALL WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME, THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA, WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THRU SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, PVA
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH IN THE EAST
BECOMES, WHICH AFFECTS THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND JUST HOW FAR
WEST OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS. THIS INTRODUCES EVEN FURTHER
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON THURSDAY.
OVERALL, THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THIS OUTCOME IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY,
OTHERWISE NEAR AVERAGE.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY...A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH MAY
LEAD TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER DELMARVA EARLY, BUT OTHERWISE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED. AFTER A BREEZY START, WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.
ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY MORNING,
WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP AT LEAST INTO THE MID-30S IN
THE VICINITY OF I-80 AND POINTS NORTH. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES,
THIS MAY NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY IN LATER FORECASTS. AFTER A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON SUNDAY, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY, BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU OUR AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST OFFSHORE. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF WHICH THESE TWO FEATURES INTERACT,
WHICH IMPACTS THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF PRECIP. PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, HOWEVER,
IT COULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE IF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS INCORPORATED
INTO THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY,
BUT UNTIL THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS RESOLVED,
THIS IS OUTCOME IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...COMPLEX: E PA TO START VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT
WITH ISOLATED IFR FOG IN THE COUNTRYSIDE BECOMING WIDESPREAD CIGS
AOA 5000 FT BY MORNING WITH A LIGHT BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND.
CIGS AOB 1000 FT MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 11Z VCNTY KRDG AND KABE IN
THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST ADVECTION. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z E PA.
NJ: AREAS OF IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE 04Z AND THAT
MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
AFTER 12Z TODAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LIFT BY 16Z WITH WIDESPREAD
CIGS AOA 4000 FT. GUSTY SW WIND TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO
THE CFP. A 1 HOUR BAND OF BRIEF IFR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS SHOULD
BE DEVELOPING EWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY GUSTS
TO 40 KT NEAR ANY TSTMS.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT OFFSHORE BETWEEN
00Z-02Z/10 WITH VFR CIGS CLEARING TO REVEAL ONLY CIRRUS AFTER 06Z/10.
WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY NW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT, THEN
TURNING NORTHERLY TOWARD 10Z SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINE ALREADY POSTED AND AT 330 AM WILL BE EXTENDED FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
EARLY TODAY...NO SCA. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING.
TODAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND AND SEAS
ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TONIGHT...WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 25 KT, ESPECIALLY NJ WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATLANTIC SEAS 4-5 FT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS,
POSSIBLY REACHING FIVE FEET. THUS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 154A
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK 154A
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
106 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY AND
THEN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH DURING FRIDAY, AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDING ADDING FOG TO
THE MILLVILLE AREA OF SNJ AND LOWERED POPS BY 10 PCT THROUGH 09Z
FRIDAY WHICH REDUCES THE OVERNIGHT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY END THE COUNTRYSIDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND I THINK ALSO REDUCE THE RISK OF THICK FOG.
STILL LOOKING FOR SCT LIGHT SHOWERS TO FORM/DEVELOP ON RADAR OVER
EASTERN PA AROUND 6 AM IN THE INSTABILITY BURST. LIGHT SOUTH WIND
DEVELOPS.
FRIDAY...LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN FCST EXPECTATIONS AS PRESENTED IN
THURSDAY`S AFD`S. AFTER ANY SCT EARLY MORNING LIGHT SHOWERS END,
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. A DECK OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE VCNTY KRDG-
KABE-KFWN WESTWARD AT DAYBREAK SHOULD LIFT AND THIN BY 16Z.
MLCAPE OF 300-700J, NOT TOO SHABBY FOR OCTOBER, COMBINED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SET OFF AROUND 70 PCT COVERAGE OF
MEASURABLE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
PROBABLY DEPICTED SOON BY THE HRRR AND PREVIOUSLY MODELED BY 12Z/8
SPC WRF AND NOW ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MODELED BY THE 00Z/9 SPC WRF
AND NSSL WRF. BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT BUT STRONG 40 KT WINDS AT
500MB SUGGEST POTENCY. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS REACHES THE
COASTS BY 00Z.
PWAT INCREASING FROM 1" NOW TO 1.6" THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOME
OF THE RAIN WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY.
FCST WILL HAVE CHANCE TSTM HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS TODAY NEAR 80F I-95 SEWD WITH SW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE WATERS EDGE, ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY COUNTY
AND OF COURSE NOT QUITE AS WARM IN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY
NJ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AGAIN NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY WRITTEN THURSDAY
AFD SCENARIO. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS NEAR THE CF AT 8
PM THIS FRIDAY EVENING (MAINLY SE NJ AND THE SRN PORTION OF THE
DELMARVA) SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO SEA ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH CLOUD OVER MAY REMAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE COOLING AND DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS GUSTY TO 20 MPH BECOMING NORTHERLY TOWARD
MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
THE MEAN 500 HPA PATTERN IN D+2 TO D+7 PERIOD FEATURES A RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE MAIN PLAYERS AFFECTING THE
OUTCOME OF THE PATTERN ARE A SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE CARVES
OUT A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST IN THE SATURDAY
THRU TUESDAY PERIOD. MEANWHILE, THE SECOND SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ON TUESDAY, WHILE THE RESULTANT HEIGHT
FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE.
AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT, IT WILL
STALL WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME, THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA, WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THRU SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, PVA
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH IN THE EAST
BECOMES, WHICH AFFECTS THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND JUST HOW FAR
WEST OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS. THIS INTRODUCES EVEN FURTHER
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON THURSDAY.
OVERALL, THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THIS OUTCOME IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY,
OTHERWISE NEAR AVERAGE.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY...A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH MAY
LEAD TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER DELMARVA EARLY, BUT OTHERWISE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED. AFTER A BREEZY START, WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.
ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY MORNING,
WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP AT LEAST INTO THE MID-30S IN
THE VICINITY OF I-80 AND POINTS NORTH. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES,
THIS MAY NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY IN LATER FORECASTS. AFTER A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON SUNDAY, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY, BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU OUR AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST OFFSHORE. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF WHICH THESE TWO FEATURES INTERACT,
WHICH IMPACTS THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF PRECIP. PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, HOWEVER,
IT COULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE IF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS INCORPORATED
INTO THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY,
BUT UNTIL THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS RESOLVED,
THIS IS OUTCOME IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...COMPLEX: E PA TO START VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT
WITH ISOLATED IFR FOG IN THE COUNTRYSIDE BECOMING WIDESPREAD CIGS
AOA 5000 FT BY MORNING WITH A LIGHT BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND.
CIGS NEAR 1000 FT MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 11Z VCNTY KRDG AND KABE IN
THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST ADVECTION. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z E PA.
NJ: AREAS OF IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE 04Z AND THAT
MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
AFTER 12Z TODAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LIFT BY 16Z WITH WIDESPREAD
CIGS AOA 4000 FT. GUSTY SW WIND TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO
THE CFP. A 1 HOUR BAND OF BRIEF IFR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS SHOULD
BE DEVELOPING EWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY GUSTS
TO 40 KT NEAR ANY TSTMS.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT OFFSHORE BETWEEN
00Z-02Z/10 WITH VFR CIGS CLEARING TO REVEAL ONLY CIRRUS AFTER 06Z/10.
WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY NW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT, THEN
TURNING NORTHERLY TOWARD 10Z SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINE ALREADY POSTED AND AT 330 AM WILL BE EXTENDED FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
EARLY TODAY...NO SCA. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING.
TODAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND AND SEAS
ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TONIGHT...WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 25 KT, ESPECIALLY NJ WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATLANTIC SEAS 4-5 FT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS,
POSSIBLY REACHING FIVE FEET. THUS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK 107A
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1216 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY AND
THEN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH DURING FRIDAY, AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDING ADDING FOG TO
THE MILLVILLE AREA OF SNJ AND LOWERED POPS BY 10 PCT THROUGH 09Z
FRIDAY WHICH REDUCES THE OVERNIGHT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY END THE COUNTRYSIDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND I THINK ALSO REDUCE THE RISK OF THICK FOG.
STILL LOOKING FOR SCT LIGHT SHOWERS TO FORM/DEVELOP ON RADAR OVER
EASTERN PA AROUND 6 AM IN THE INSTABILITY BURST. LIGHT SOUTH WIND
DEVELOPS.
FRIDAY...LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN FCST EXPECTATIONS AS PRESENTED IN
THURSDAY`S AFD`S. AFTER ANY SCT EARLY MORNING LIGHT SHOWERS END,
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. A DECK OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE VCNTY KRDG-
KABE-KFWN WESTWARD AT DAYBREAK SHOULD LIFT AND THIN BY 16Z.
MLCAPE OF 300-700J, NOT TOO SHABBY FOR OCTOBER, COMBINED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SET OFF AROUND 70 PCT COVERAGE OF
MEASURABLE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
PROBABLY DEPICTED SOON BY THE HRRR AND PREVIOUSLY MODELED BY 12Z/8
SPC WRF AND NOW ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MODELED BY THE 00Z/9 SPC WRF
AND NSSL WRF. BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT BUT STRONG 40 KT WINDS AT
500MB SUGGEST POTENCY. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS REACHES THE
COASTS BY 00Z.
PWAT INCREASING FROM 1" NOW TO 1.6" THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOME
OF THE RAIN WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY.
FCST WILL HAVE CHANCE TSTM HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS TODAY NEAR 80F I-95 SEWD WITH SW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE WATERS EDGE, ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY COUNTY
AND OF COURSE NOT QUITE AS WARM IN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY
NJ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AGAIN NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY WRITTEN THURSDAY
AFD SCENARIO. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS NEAR THE CF AT 8
PM THIS FRIDAY EVENING (MAINLY SE NJ AND THE SRN PORTION OF THE
DELMARVA) SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO SEA ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH CLOUD OVER MAY REMAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE COOLING AND DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS GUSTY TO 20 MPH BECOMING NORTHERLY TOWARD
MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
THE MEAN 500 HPA PATTERN IN D+2 TO D+7 PERIOD FEATURES A RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE MAIN PLAYERS AFFECTING THE
OUTCOME OF THE PATTERN ARE A SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE CARVES
OUT A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST IN THE SATURDAY
THRU TUESDAY PERIOD. MEANWHILE, THE SECOND SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ON TUESDAY, WHILE THE RESULTANT HEIGHT
FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE.
AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT, IT WILL
STALL WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME, THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA, WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THRU SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, PVA
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH IN THE EAST
BECOMES, WHICH AFFECTS THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND JUST HOW FAR
WEST OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS. THIS INTRODUCES EVEN FURTHER
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON THURSDAY.
OVERALL, THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THIS OUTCOME IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY,
OTHERWISE NEAR AVERAGE.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY...A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH MAY
LEAD TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER DELMARVA EARLY, BUT OTHERWISE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED. AFTER A BREEZY START, WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.
ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY MORNING,
WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP AT LEAST INTO THE MID-30S IN
THE VICINITY OF I-80 AND POINTS NORTH. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES,
THIS MAY NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY IN LATER FORECASTS. AFTER A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON SUNDAY, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY, BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU OUR AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST OFFSHORE. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF WHICH THESE TWO FEATURES INTERACT,
WHICH IMPACTS THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF PRECIP. PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, HOWEVER,
IT COULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE IF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS INCORPORATED
INTO THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY,
BUT UNTIL THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS RESOLVED,
THIS IS OUTCOME IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH ISOLATED IFR FOG IN
THE COUNTRYSIDE BECOMING WIDESPREAD CIGS AOA 5000 FT BY MORNING
WITH A LIGHT BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND. CIGS NEAR 1000 FT MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD 11Z VCNTY KRDG AND KABE IN THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOIST ADVECTION. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z E PA.
AFTER 12Z TODAY...ANY MVFR CIGS E PA WILL LIFT BY 16Z WITH WIDESPREAD
CIGS AOA 4000 FT. GUSTY SW WIND TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO
THE CFP. A 1 HOUR BAND OF BRIEF IFR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS SHOULD BE
DEVELOPING EWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY GUSTS TO
40 KT NEAR ANY TSTMS.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT OFFSHORE BETWEEN
00Z-02Z/10 WITH VFR CIGS CLEARING TO REVEAL ONLY CIRRUS AFTER 06Z/10.
WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY NW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT, THEN
TURNING NORTHERLY TOWARD 10Z SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINE ALREADY POSTED AND AT 330 AM WILL BE EXTENDED FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
EARLY TODAY...NO SCA. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING.
TODAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND AND SEAS
ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TONIGHT...WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 25 KT, ESPECIALLY NJ WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATLANTIC SEAS 4-5 FT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS,
POSSIBLY REACHING FIVE FEET. THUS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1215A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1215A
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK 1215A
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK 1215A
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
230 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
SMALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST WITH JUST
FINE TUNING OF THE POPS WITH A QUICKER ENDING.
A RIBBON OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE TRUE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EXTENDING FROM AN ELONGATED BUT QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED OVER MUCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. PRESSURE
RISES OF 3-4 MB PER 3HR REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...AN INDICATION OF
THE COLD ADVECTION AND MOMENTUM TO THE FRONT. WITHIN THAT REGIME
STRATOCU IS SPREADING SOUTHEAST. AS WINDS TURN TOWARD DUE NORTH IN
THE PRE-DAWN OR DAYBREAK HOURS THAT SHOULD DRAG THAT CLOUD DECK
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY STILL LOOK TO BE 15-18 DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 6-9 FT WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER WAVES ALONG THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES ON
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY THE HIGHEST ALONG THE INDIANA NEARSHORE. AT
THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING EVEN WITH THE
CURRENT HIGHER LAKE LEVELS...AS THESE FORECAST VALUES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LATE SEPTEMBER EVENTS.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL/NWRN
IN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INCREASING SLWY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. AS OF 1PM CDT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO 2
WHILE TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT UN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F FOR THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA. THE BIGGER
QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING
INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND +12C OVER
THE REGION...WHILE THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS ARND 500 J/KG
OF CAPE INVOF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA/NWRN MO.
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INITIALIZATION AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ON
TRACK...SO...HAVE TRENDED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT STEADILY TRACKS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PCPN REACHING THE RFD AREA BTWN 3-
5PM AND THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA ARND 5-6PM WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN OF ARND 1 TO 2
HRS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO...POSSIBLY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLD
SHRA. AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...GIVING THE LIMITED DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AND NO REASON TO SEE WHY THERE WOULD BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT TS WITH THE
SHRA...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SOME TS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING
WILL BE LOCATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN
INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 05-06Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME TRAILING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY DURG THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VEER TO NLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 3 MB/3 HR AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE TRUE COOLER AIR WILL NOT
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL WARMING WILL BE
LESS THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FOR COMPARISON...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORNING LOW
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ARND 30 DEGREES...WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES AT
THE MOST.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
233 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A GOOD WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SATURDAY...AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...AS THIS
SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTS ITSELF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 925 AND 850 MB ARE PROGGED
TO REACH UP AROUND 18-19 DEGREES C AND 15-16 DEGREES C BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
A EVEN A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SHIFT OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY
MONDAY...AND AS IT DOES SO...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE DECENTLY MILD ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE COOLER AIRMASS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN REACH INTO THE 70S...BEFORE CONDITIONS COOL DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...BUT SEASONAL AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 8Z...THEN LINGERING THRU LATE
AFTERNOON.
* NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASE...SPEEDS BETWEEN
10-14KT AND GUSTS UP TO 24KT AT TIMES LATE MORNING.
* WINDS TURN NORTHEAST 010-030 DEG DIRECTION ARND 00Z OR SHORTLY
AFTER AND SPEEDS DIMINISH.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS CONSIDERABLE HIGH BASED
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST...AND TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST. UPSTREAM
ACROSS WISCONSIN SFC OBS INDICATE A SHIELD OF STRATUS LAYER
CLOUDS...AND THAT IS WORKING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN IL
TAF SITES. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO BRING MVFR CIGS INTO RFD THE
EARLIEST...THEN ARND 8Z CIGS ARND 3KFT AGL WILL ARRIVE AT
ORD/MDW/DPA. THEN EVENTUALLY REACH GYY ARND 9Z. ONCE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP THERE MAY BE A POCKET OF SOME BASES THAT DIP TO BETWEEN
1000-1500FT AGL...THEN WITH COLD/DRY AIR WORKING IN AFTER DAYBREAK
A BASE ARND 3000-3500FT AGL WILL EVOLVE AND LINGER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MIXING AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS BY EARLY MORNING
REACHING 10-14KT AND A FEW GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS...THEN BY
MID-MORNING SPEEDS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 12-15KT AND GUSTS MAY
INCREASE TO ARND 20-24KT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEEDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS
DEVELOPING AND IN TIMING OF GUSTS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS...AND IN DURATION.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... VFR. BREEZY SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS TURNING BREEZY NW.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BREEZY NW.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
228 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE HURON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY LATE
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BRINGING A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE
AND WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST TO NORTH. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE LATER TODAY...HOWEVER BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS INDICATING GUSTS TO APPROACH 30KT AT TIMES FOR
THE OPEN WATERS AND ALSO PORTIONS OF THE IL/IN NEARSHORE...MAINLY
FOCUSED AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. WIND
DIRECTION MAY LINGER MORE FROM A 340-350 DIRECTION...WHICH WOULD
LIKELY ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD MORE FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN OPEN WATERS. BUT IF WINDS CAN TURN
TO A 360-020 DIRECTION...THEN WAVES WOULD ALSO BUILD FOR THE
ILLINOIS SHORE. WAVES MAY APPROACH 8-10FT IN THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
NEARSHORE WATERS LATER TODAY...AND DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD...THE COOLER AIR MAY HELP MAINTAIN LARGER WAVES A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTHWEST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RETURNS AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD FOR THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO 30KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A FEW GALES
MAY OCCUR AS WELL. PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...A COLD
FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW MOVING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE HUDSON BAY...WILL SHIFT OVER THE LAKE. A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY MONDAY EVENING.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1251 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...859 PM CDT
SMALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST WITH JUST
FINE TUNING OF THE POPS WITH A QUICKER ENDING.
A RIBBON OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE TRUE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EXTENDING FROM AN ELONGATED BUT QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED OVER MUCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. PRESSURE
RISES OF 3-4 MB PER 3HR REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...AN INDICATION OF
THE COLD ADVECTION AND MOMENTUM TO THE FRONT. WITHIN THAT REGIME
STRATOCU IS SPREADING SOUTHEAST. AS WINDS TURN TOWARD DUE NORTH IN
THE PRE-DAWN OR DAYBREAK HOURS THAT SHOULD DRAG THAT CLOUD DECK
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY STILL LOOK TO BE 15-18 DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 6-9 FT WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER WAVES ALONG THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES ON
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY THE HIGHEST ALONG THE INDIANA NEARSHORE. AT
THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING EVEN WITH THE
CURRENT HIGHER LAKE LEVELS...AS THESE FORECAST VALUES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LATE SEPTEMBER EVENTS.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL/NWRN
IN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INCREASING SLWY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. AS OF 1PM CDT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO 2
WHILE TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT UN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F FOR THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA. THE BIGGER
QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING
INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND +12C OVER
THE REGION...WHILE THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS ARND 500 J/KG
OF CAPE INVOF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA/NWRN MO.
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INITIALIZATION AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ON
TRACK...SO...HAVE TRENDED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT STEADILY TRACKS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PCPN REACHING THE RFD AREA BTWN 3-
5PM AND THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA ARND 5-6PM WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN OF ARND 1 TO 2
HRS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO...POSSIBLY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLD
SHRA. AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...GIVING THE LIMITED DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AND NO REASON TO SEE WHY THERE WOULD BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT TS WITH THE
SHRA...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SOME TS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING
WILL BE LOCATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN
INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 05-06Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME TRAILING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY DURG THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VEER TO NLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 3 MB/3 HR AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE TRUE COOLER AIR WILL NOT
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL WARMING WILL BE
LESS THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FOR COMPARISON...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORNING LOW
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ARND 30 DEGREES...WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES AT
THE MOST.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
233 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A GOOD WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SATURDAY...AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...AS THIS
SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTS ITSELF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 925 AND 850 MB ARE PROGGED
TO REACH UP AROUND 18-19 DEGREES C AND 15-16 DEGREES C BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
A EVEN A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SHIFT OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY
MONDAY...AND AS IT DOES SO...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE DECENTLY MILD ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE COOLER AIRMASS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN REACH INTO THE 70S...BEFORE CONDITIONS COOL DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...BUT SEASONAL AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 8Z...THEN LINGERING THRU LATE
AFTERNOON.
* NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASE...SPEEDS BETWEEN
10-14KT AND GUSTS UP TO 24KT AT TIMES LATE MORNING.
* WINDS TURN NORTHEAST 010-030 DEG DIRECTION ARND 00Z OR SHORTLY
AFTER AND SPEEDS DIMINISH.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS CONSIDERABLE HIGH BASED
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST...AND TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST. UPSTREAM
ACROSS WISCONSIN SFC OBS INDICATE A SHIELD OF STRATUS LAYER
CLOUDS...AND THAT IS WORKING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN IL
TAF SITES. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO BRING MVFR CIGS INTO RFD THE
EARLIEST...THEN ARND 8Z CIGS ARND 3KFT AGL WILL ARRIVE AT
ORD/MDW/DPA. THEN EVENTUALLY REACH GYY ARND 9Z. ONCE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP THERE MAY BE A POCKET OF SOME BASES THAT DIP TO BETWEEN
1000-1500FT AGL...THEN WITH COLD/DRY AIR WORKING IN AFTER DAYBREAK
A BASE ARND 3000-3500FT AGL WILL EVOLVE AND LINGER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MIXING AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS BY EARLY MORNING
REACHING 10-14KT AND A FEW GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS...THEN BY
MID-MORNING SPEEDS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 12-15KT AND GUSTS MAY
INCREASE TO ARND 20-24KT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEEDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS
DEVELOPING AND IN TIMING OF GUSTS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS...AND IN DURATION.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... VFR. BREEZY SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS TURNING BREEZY NW.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BREEZY NW.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
312 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW.
OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE LAKE LATTER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. WITH THESE STRONG
WINDS...EXPECT WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO INCREASE UP
CLOSE TO 10 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD...COVING
THIS PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES WELL THROUGH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 30 KT APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD BET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...A
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW MOVING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE HUDSON BAY...WILL SHIFT OVER THE LAKE. A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY MONDAY EVENING.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
633 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING AND DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. AFTER THAT...DRY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS BROKE APART AND DISSIPATED BEFORE
IT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AND
AMOUNTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK...AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
POISED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND ABOUT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE RAPID
REFRESH WHICH IS PROJECTING A LINE OF PRECIPITATION FULLY DEVELOPING
AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INDIANA...THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE WITH RESPECT TO POPS. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT CHANCES WEAK...WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM...POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE HRRR THUS FAR AND
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONGST THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE THAT
LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THERE WILL BE WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE THEREFORE UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS SLIGHTLY FOR
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S (ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES) TO NEAR 70S (FAR SOUTHEAST).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A VERY DRY
COLUMN...ALONG WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS THROUGH
SUNDAY. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE ON THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND HAVE THUS TRENDED HIGHS ON SATURDAY TOWARD THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MAVMOS. IF THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH OR
CALM...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ALSO TRENDED LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BELOW MAVMOS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FULL
SUN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AS WELL AS DECENT SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW.
WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN MEXMOS DURING THIS TIME FOR HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND MONDAY...WITH FAIRLY FLAT WEST TO NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SMALL PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER THAT...SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 091200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN INDIANA. THIS FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINALS BY 091400Z OR SO BASED ON SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE. AREA OF LOWER CEILINGS 020-030 IN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE
SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING HOURS AND HOLD FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF MISSOURI MAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN TO MAINLY THE KHUF/KIND/KBMG AREAS TOWARDS MIDDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. APPEARS ANY RAIN
THAT MAY OCCUR WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
TO A MINIMUM.
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO 320-350 DEGREES LATER THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
11-15 KTS BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING AND DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. AFTER THAT...DRY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS BROKE APART AND DISSIPATED BEFORE
IT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AND
AMOUNTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK...AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
POISED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND ABOUT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE RAPID
REFRESH WHICH IS PROJECTING A LINE OF PRECIPITATION FULLY DEVELOPING
AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INDIANA...THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE WITH RESPECT TO POPS. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT CHANCES WEAK...WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM...POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE HRRR THUS FAR AND
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONGST THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE THAT
LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THERE WILL BE WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE THEREFORE UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS SLIGHTLY FOR
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S (ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES) TO NEAR 70S (FAR SOUTHEAST).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A VERY DRY
COLUMN...ALONG WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS THROUGH
SUNDAY. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE ON THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND HAVE THUS TRENDED HIGHS ON SATURDAY TOWARD THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MAVMOS. IF THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH OR
CALM...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ALSO TRENDED LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BELOW MAVMOS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FULL
SUN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AS WELL AS DECENT SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW.
WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN MEXMOS DURING THIS TIME FOR HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND MONDAY...WITH FAIRLY FLAT WEST TO NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SMALL PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER THAT...SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
KIND VICINITY AROUND SUNRISE. WILL PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF THE
WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND
ALSO PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOWER MVFR CEILINGS BY SEVERAL
HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TOWARD AND AFTER 12Z AND IMPROVING BACK TO VFR 16Z-19Z. SHOULD
THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES BY OR SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z.
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EAST OF LAF AND HUF AT ISSUANCE TIME AND BE IN THE
VICINITY OF IND AND BMG. WITH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHTNING COVERAGE NOT
GREAT DUE TO ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WILL JUST GO WITH 2
HOUR TEMPO MVFR SHOWER GROUP ALONG WITH VCTS AT THE START OF THE
TAF. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH HUF AROUND 08Z...IND AROUND 09Z AND BMG
AROUND 11Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 3 TO 7 KNOTS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT AND INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR MORE WITH MINOR GUSTS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
304 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING AND DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. AFTER THAT...DRY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS BROKE APART AND DISSIPATED BEFORE
IT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AND
AMOUNTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK...AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
POISED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND ABOUT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE RAPID
REFRESH WHICH IS PROJECTING A LINE OF PRECIPITATION FULLY DEVELOPING
AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INDIANA...THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE WITH RESPECT TO POPS. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT CHANCES WEAK...WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM...POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE HRRR THUS FAR AND
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONGST THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE THAT
LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THERE WILL BE WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE THEREFORE UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS SLIGHTLY FOR
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S (ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES) TO NEAR 70S (FAR SOUTHEAST).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A VERY DRY
COLUMN...ALONG WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS THROUGH
SUNDAY. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE ON THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND HAVE THUS TRENDED HIGHS ON SATURDAY TOWARD THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MAVMOS. IF THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH OR
CALM...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ALSO TRENDED LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BELOW MAVMOS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FULL
SUN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AS WELL AS DECENT SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW.
WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN MEXMOS DURING THIS TIME FOR HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND MONDAY...WITH FAIRLY FLAT WEST TO NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SMALL PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER THAT...SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TOWARD AND AFTER 12Z AND IMPROVING BACK TO VFR 16Z-19Z. SHOULD
THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES BY OR SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z.
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EAST OF LAF AND HUF AT ISSUANCE TIME AND BE IN THE
VICINITY OF IND AND BMG. WITH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHTNING COVERAGE NOT
GREAT DUE TO ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WILL JUST GO WITH 2
HOUR TEMPO MVFR SHOWER GROUP ALONG WITH VCTS AT THE START OF THE
TAF. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH HUF AROUND 08Z...IND AROUND 09Z AND BMG
AROUND 11Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 3 TO 7 KNOTS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT AND INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR MORE WITH MINOR GUSTS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
511 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO ACROSS EH SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PASSING HIGH CLOUD COVER. AT THE
SURFACE...SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO WESTERLY FLOW AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS REMAINING IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA...WITH INCREASING WAA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRIMARY CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
(SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION) AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE DAILY RECORD HIGHS BROKEN
ACROSS OUR CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORS HIGHS 90-95F...WHICH COULD STILL PLACE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITHIN RANGE OF MONTHLY RECORDS. WARMER END OF GUIDANCE NOW
SUPPORTS HIGHS 95 (GOODLAND) TO 100F (MCCOOK) WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE
MONTHLY RECORDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA. WHILE MIXING SHOULD
BE VERY DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...TEMPS ALOFT SEEM TO SUPPORT
THE LOWER END OF THIS SPECTRUM AND MODEL CONSENSUS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST MONDAY, FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT EVEN THROUGH DYNAMICS FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH ARE NEARBY. THERE IS SIMPLY A LACK OF MOISTURE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS LACK OF MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY POPS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE NIL.
MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA. MIN
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY.
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA
WEST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S DURING THIS
TIME. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. IF TD TRENDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE ANY INDICATION WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EVEN WARMER. THE BIGGEST QUESTION REGARDING POTENTIAL
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE WINDS...WITH PEAK WINDS ALOFT STILL NORTH
OF OUR CWA. GFS HAS TRENDED HIGHER AND MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW OF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34. NAM AND OTHER
GUIDANCE ON THE OTHER HAND SUPPORTS WHAT WOULD BE INFREQUENT WIND
GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT PEAK WINDS IN THE MIXED
LAYER. THIS IS A VERY NARROW WINDOW IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA...AND 3HR OCCURRENCE IS IN DOUBT. I DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUANCE OF WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE DUE TO THE MARGINAL
WIND CONDITIONS.
MONDAY...DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET CRITERIA EXCEPT IN THE MORNING OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHEN RH VALUES WILL HIGHER. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES GO LOWER BUT SPEEDS THEN WILL EVEN BE
LOWER. LATER SHIFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER FOR
MONDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
RECORDS FOR SATURDAY
GOODLAND.....90 SET IN 1920
TRIBUNE......91 SET IN 1920
BURLINGTON...90 SET IN 1962
YUMA.........87 SET IN 1962
RECORDS FOR SUNDAY
GOODLAND.....93 SET IN 1996 (MONTHLY RECORD 96 IN 1926)
COLBY........90 SET IN 1955 (MONTHLY RECORD 97 IN 2000)
TRIBUNE......90 SET IN 1975 (MONTHLY RECORD 95 IN 2007)
HILL CITY....94 SET IN 1975
BURLINGTON...90 SET IN 1996 (MONTHLY RECORD 93 IN 2007)
YUMA.........86 SET IN 1989
MCCOOK.......90 SET IN 1962 (MONTHLY RECORD 98 IN 1928)
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
GOODLAND.....91
COLBY........94
TRIBUNE......92
HILL CITY....96
BURLINGTON...90
YUMA.........89
MCCOOK.......95
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR/FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1237 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Upper trough axis was moving into eastern Kansas from the northwest
early this morning, with regional radar and surface observations
putting cold front through northern Oklahoma at 08Z. Bands of
showers wear ahead of the trough, with measurable amounts on the
northwest edge hard to come by. Trends put the axis into the far
southern counties at 12Z and will carry a few hours of sprinkles
here. Satellite imagery showing a few other items of interest,
including widespread stratus from northeastern Nebraska east across
much of Iowa and north into Minnesota with high cloud spilling
southwest out of the northern Rockies.
Though somewhat overdone, the latest RAP runs seem to have the best
handle on the stratus to the north/northeast and keep it together
through the morning as north winds usher it south. Given shallow
nature of cold air, think it is a little too pessimistic on the
cloud. Highs will still struggle into the 65-70 range even in good
insolation with 850mb temps 6-8C colder than Thursday. High cloud
should be entering north central Kansas late in the day and continue
southeast overnight. Surface ridge axis will passing through the
area at the same time, so amount/persistence of cirrus and stratus
will be large players in fog potential. At this point there appears
to be enough of a chance for patchy wording in eastern areas,
nearer the ridge and any higher moisture from stratus.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Saturday high temperatures warm back up into the 70s as shortwave
ridge begins to build overhead behind departing trof. This is
amplified Saturday night into Sunday, and lows Saturday night may
be underforecast in the middle to upper 50s as southerly winds and
warm air advection aloft ramp up overnight. As the mid level
thermal ridge approaches from the north on Sunday ahead of the
next front, highs are expected to mix into mid to upper 80s, with
even some low 90s possible.
Front consistently forecast to move through on Sunday night into
Monday morning, bringing cooler temperatures on Monday with highs
in the mid 70s, and could see falling temperatures through the
day. Lows drop back into the 40s on Monday night.
West northwesterly flow remains across the northern into central
plains through the late week, with periodic frontal boundaries
coming southward in the flow. Highs in the 70s with lows in the
50s, with next chance for rain possibly coming toward the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
MVFR conditions persist over KTOP/KFOE while drier air continues
to erode the shallow stratus layer by 20Z. KMHK is VFR through
forecast period as the stratus remains to the east. Confidence is
still moderate in MIFG developing aft 09Z at KTOP/KFOE based on
the low level moisture present this evening. However, high clouds
may mitigate the fog potential so have 3SM going through sunrise.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
638 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Upper trough axis was moving into eastern Kansas from the northwest
early this morning, with regional radar and surface observations
putting cold front through northern Oklahoma at 08Z. Bands of
showers wear ahead of the trough, with measurable amounts on the
northwest edge hard to come by. Trends put the axis into the far
southern counties at 12Z and will carry a few hours of sprinkles
here. Satellite imagery showing a few other items of interest,
including widespread stratus from northeastern Nebraska east across
much of Iowa and north into Minnesota with high cloud spilling
southwest out of the northern Rockies.
Though somewhat overdone, the latest RAP runs seem to have the best
handle on the stratus to the north/northeast and keep it together
through the morning as north winds usher it south. Given shallow
nature of cold air, think it is a little too pessimistic on the
cloud. Highs will still struggle into the 65-70 range even in good
insolation with 850mb temps 6-8C colder than Thursday. High cloud
should be entering north central Kansas late in the day and continue
southeast overnight. Surface ridge axis will passing through the
area at the same time, so amount/persistence of cirrus and stratus
will be large players in fog potential. At this point there appears
to be enough of a chance for patchy wording in eastern areas,
nearer the ridge and any higher moisture from stratus.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Saturday high temperatures warm back up into the 70s as shortwave
ridge begins to build overhead behind departing trof. This is
amplified Saturday night into Sunday, and lows Saturday night may
be underforecast in the middle to upper 50s as southerly winds and
warm air advection aloft ramp up overnight. As the mid level
thermal ridge approaches from the north on Sunday ahead of the
next front, highs are expected to mix into mid to upper 80s, with
even some low 90s possible.
Front consistently forecast to move through on Sunday night into
Monday morning, bringing cooler temperatures on Monday with highs
in the mid 70s, and could see falling temperatures through the
day. Lows drop back into the 40s on Monday night.
West northwesterly flow remains across the northern into central
plains through the late week, with periodic frontal boundaries
coming southward in the flow. Highs in the 70s with lows in the
50s, with next chance for rain possibly coming toward the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Showers have pushed off to the southeast, but additional issues
exist in this forecast. MVFR stratus in eastern Nebraska looks to
enter the terminals around 16Z, though latest trends may keep it
just east of MHK. Limited mention at MHK to tempo at this point.
Breaks in northern Iowa and shallow nature of moisture should
allow for VFR conditions by 20Z. Light winds and clear skies will
likely lead to reduced visibilities in BR/FG after 09Z Saturday,
again more likely at TOP and FOE in lighter winds and higher
moisture.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
325 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Upper trough axis was moving into eastern Kansas from the northwest
early this morning, with regional radar and surface observations
putting cold front through northern Oklahoma at 08Z. Bands of
showers wear ahead of the trough, with measurable amounts on the
northwest edge hard to come by. Trends put the axis into the far
southern counties at 12Z and will carry a few hours of sprinkles
here. Satellite imagery showing a few other items of interest,
including widespread stratus from northeastern Nebraska east across
much of Iowa and north into Minnesota with high cloud spilling
southwest out of the northern Rockies.
Though somewhat overdone, the latest RAP runs seem to have the best
handle on the stratus to the north/northeast and keep it together
through the morning as north winds usher it south. Given shallow
nature of cold air, think it is a little too pessimistic on the
cloud. Highs will still struggle into the 65-70 range even in good
insolation with 850mb temps 6-8C colder than Thursday. High cloud
should be entering north central Kansas late in the day and continue
southeast overnight. Surface ridge axis will passing through the
area at the same time, so amount/persistence of cirrus and stratus
will be large players in fog potential. At this point there appears
to be enough of a chance for patchy wording in eastern areas,
nearer the ridge and any higher moisture from stratus.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Saturday high temperatures warm back up into the 70s as shortwave
ridge begins to build overhead behind departing trof. This is
amplified Saturday night into Sunday, and lows Saturday night may
be underforecast in the middle to upper 50s as southerly winds and
warm air advection aloft ramp up overnight. As the mid level
thermal ridge approaches from the north on Sunday ahead of the
next front, highs are expected to mix into mid to upper 80s, with
even some low 90s possible.
Front consistently forecast to move through on Sunday night into
Monday morning, bringing cooler temperatures on Monday with highs
in the mid 70s, and could see falling temperatures through the
day. Lows drop back into the 40s on Monday night.
West northwesterly flow remains across the northern into central
plains through the late week, with periodic frontal boundaries
coming southward in the flow. Highs in the 70s with lows in the
50s, with next chance for rain possibly coming toward the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
A band of scattered showers will move across TAF sites before 10Z,
lasting about 2 hours of off-and-on precip at each site. Even with
showers, expect primarily VFR conditions. Skies clear out by
sunrise with northerly winds continuing through the day.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
154 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN UP AROUND THE BLUEGRASS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. SMALL UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS
AND WX SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN IN GREAT SHAPE IN
TERMS OF OVERALL TIMING AND COVERAGE OF STORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
WSR-88D RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
ISOLATED STORM MAINLY MOVING THROUGH BATH...FLEMING...AND ROWAN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. GRIDS LOOK FAIRLY ON TRACK AT THIS POINT.
DID MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO INGEST THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS OVERALL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS. ALSO TWEAKED THE WX AND POP ONES BASED ON THE CURRENT
RADAR IMAGES AND HRRR PROGS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON ITS TREK EAST. A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTHWEST FROM THIS
LOW AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO POP UP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS ARE TAKING SHAPE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUD COVER. THEY ARE
FEEDING ON RELATIVELY ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
CWA. LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS AND ROVING SHOWERS TO HELP STIR THE AIR
AND MITIGATE OUR CURRENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. THE
MOST SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
WHILE RIDGES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. WINDS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY TAKE A DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY TO END THE WORK WEEK AND START THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST
ECMWF AND NAM12 ARE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE CLUSTERING WITH
THE CORE OF THIS WAVE BUT STILL REASONABLE. THIS TROUGH AND ITS
ENERGY DIVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WITH
HEIGHTS REBOUNDING BY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
FOR DETAILS WITH THIS FROPA EVENT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AROUND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY FROM
THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
LIMITED BY THE MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DESPITE DECENT
DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOME WIND SHEAR ALOFT...AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS... IN ADDITION TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. THE INSTABILITY
WANES DURING THE EVENING WITH THUNDER MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT. POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AND
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR
HIGHS COMPARED TO THURSDAY AND TODAY.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
SATURDAY. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNED ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS MORNING/S
LOW TEMPERATURES AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR
TO CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
THE PERIOD WILL BEING WITH A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION
AND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTED
TROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE WEATHER PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK
WILL FEATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE COLD...WITH READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND 50
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE
EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THIS BOUT OF RAIN WOULD BE
TRIGGERED BY SLOW AND WEAKENING EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ONCE
THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...WE SHOULD SEE OTHERWISE DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEHIND
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BRING VIS DOWN TO IFR
AND GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. THEN TONIGHT THE
ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR POST FRONTAL FOG...WENT CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GUIDANCE. GENERALLY MOST SITES WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO GO BELOW OR NEAR AIRPORT MINS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND BEHIND FRONT WILL SWITCH
AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
A challenge today will be the cloud forecast; no big surprise there.
We may have to go more pessimistic with the trailing edge/clearing
line of the clouds. The sfc cold front is now through the PAH
forecast area, increasing stability. Any additional showers over
most of the area should be very light. The exception will be near
the TN border for a few hours this afternoon, where a burst of
moderate rain is possible, along with a lightning strike or two.
Also updated the aviation discussion.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 222 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Radar showed showers/isolated thunder to our west approaching.
Front still forecast to move through early today with trailing
mid level energy supporting lift for some shower and possible
thunder activity. Bumped up PoPs a bit, given rather high MOS
numbers. This despite relatively low QPF given marginal overall
moisture. Chances will decrease from NW to SE this afternoon,
ending by end of the day around the KHOP area. High pressure
follows with slightly cooler temperatures and dry weather Saturday
through Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Medium confidence in the extended.
Believe the the extended init along with most models persist in
advertising abundant moisture where it will not exist. This is
evident via current regional or national radar loop which detected
scattered showers and the lightning detection chart indicated
isolated strike or two. This is a great deal less coverage than the
models have been advertising for well over a week now. I believe
this will also come to fruition with Mondays and Fridays cold front
passage. For the aforementioned reasons have trimmed pops back about
five percent from the extended init. That combined with very limited
gulf moisture supply would equate to no mention of rain in the
extended at this time. I cant rule out there may be a sprinkle
around the area Monday but measurable rain is very much in question.
Highs and lows will be very close to normal throughout the extended
with highs in the 70s and lows near or just below 50.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Light showers, with very little vsby restriction, will continue to
move across the TAF sites this afternoon. An MVFR cloud deck is
likely to develop/move swd across the region this afternoon. Low
clouds may linger well into the night at some airports, especially
south of the oh River, though confidence is not high on the length
of time. Nrly winds AOB 10 kts will continue behind a cold front.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1209 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2015
Updated the forecast to adjust POPs with greater POPs near and just
south of the Ohio River for the next few hrs. A few storms have
already popped up this morning with wind signatures of 30-35mph on
radar. Since these storms are a little better than originally
expected, feel that central and southern portions of KY will likely
see scattered to numerous storms this afternoon and a few may be on
the strong side with strong winds being the main threat. The cold
front causing these storms has made it to southern/central portions
of Indiana and should continue to provide forcing for convection
along and south of the front through this evening. Areas north of
the front will enter more of a showery regime.
Issued at 900 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2015
Updated the forecast to increase POPs over central KY from mid
morning through early afternoon. The latest HRRR has a good handle
on precip development over central KY this morning, and it really
develops better coverage of showers with embedded isld-sct t-storms
over central/southern portions of KY late this morning through the
afternoon hours. This seems to match the projected frontal timing
well. So overall, doesn`t look like southern Indiana will see as
much precip as central KY today. Also, because central KY precip
has started a bit earlier than expected, did follow the latest
CONShort guidance with slightly cooler high temps for today. Highs
should range from 72-79.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2015
A cold front stretched from the Great Lakes through the mid-
Mississippi Valley to the Ozarks early this morning will steadily
push across southern Indiana and central Kentucky over the course of
the day today. As the atmosphere slowly destabilizes and upper
energy over the mid-Missouri Valley this morning crosses central
Kentucky this afternoon, convection will break out. Showers are
first expected to develop along and either side of the Ohio River by
late morning. As we head into the afternoon the showers will push
southeast and increase in coverage, with precipitable water values
pooling well above normal around 1.3 to 1.5 inches ahead of the
front. By mid and late afternoon thunderstorms will be possible,
especially southeast of a Bowling Green-Lexington line where lifted
index values should drop to around -5C.
0-6km bulk shear values still look to be on the order of 30-35kt
this afternoon with mid-level winds of 35-40kt. Soundings look
fairly well saturated and forecast DCAPE is very low. Gusty winds
with the heavier downpours will certainly be possible, but
widespread severe weather is not expected.
Given the over achievement of temperatures yesterday, will go with
the high side of guidance today, especially in areas that spend the
most time ahead of the front and convection this afternoon. This
results in MaxT ranging from lo-mid 70s in southern Indiana to lower
80s in southern Kentucky.
Showers will move off to the southeast this evening, with clouds
lingering through the night. Low temperatures will range from upper
40s to middle 50s on 5-10mph north breezes.
Clouds will continue to linger into Saturday morning but by
afternoon most locations should be seeing fair skies as high
pressure invades the Ohio Valley. Temperatures should top out from
the middle 60s to around 70...depending a lot on just how quickly
the clouds scour out.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2015
The upper pattern will feature ridging over the SW CONUS and a
shallow trough across the NE for much of the long term. The Ohio
River Valley will lie in the stronger NW flow between the two
features, with a shortwave passing through Monday/Monday night. This
upper feature and its associated cold front will bring the only
chances for rain in the long term.
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
Cutoff low will anchor of the Carolina coast to end the weekend.
Meanwhile brief upper ridging and surface high pressure will hold
influence. This will lead to mostly clear and dry conditions with
cooler temps behind the front. Lows wil be in the 40s on Saturday
night under good raditional cooling conditions. A few of our cool
valleys will likely drop into the lower 40s. Highs will be back in
the 70s on Sunday as steady SW surface flow returns.
Look for milder lows Sunday night in the upper 40s and low 50s.
Monday - Monday Night...
A shortwave and associated surface cold front pass through to start
the new week, bringing chances for rain showers. Models agree pretty
well on timing with the bulk of activity expected Monday afternoon
through Monday evening. However, there continues to be some
disagreement with the amount of moisture available. 09/00z ECMWF
continues to show a more amplified upper pattern which is able to
draw deeper moisture into the area, with GFS a little less robust.
Continued to compromise between the two which will warrant iso to
widely scattered rain showers mainly across our N and NE CWA.
Went with a blend of raw temps during this advective timeframe,
which will yield most highs in the mid 70s on Monday and lows in the
low 50s Monday night.
Tuesday - Thursday...
Shortwave trough axis and cold front pass east by Tuesday, with a
return to dry NW flow aloft and surface high pressure. Expect a dry
mid week. Temps will initially cool off behind the front on Tuesday
with highs only in the 60s. Tuesday night lows will be in the 40s.
We`ll return to the 70s Wednesday/Thursday with Wednesday night lows
in the lower 50s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 647 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2015
A cold front will cross the region today, bringing a gradual wind
shift from southwest this morning to west midday and northwest by
late afternoon. Showers will develop and spread in from the west
late morning/mid day and proceed to the southeast across central
Kentucky this afternoon. Will account for this with VCSH in the SDF
TAF, and will go ahead and include VCTS/CB in the BWG and LEX TAFs.
The best chance for thunder at BWG/LEX will be during the early to
mid afternoon hours.
It looks as though ceilings will hang around through the night and
into Saturday morning behind the front. Will remain optimistic for
now and keep them just barely VFR, but they may indeed fall to high-
end MVFR levels.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....13
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1003 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
WSR-88D RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
ISOLATED STORM MAINLY MOVING THROUGH BATH...FLEMING...AND ROWAN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. GRIDS LOOK FAIRLY ON TRACK AT THIS POINT.
DID MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO INGEST THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS OVERALL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS. ALSO TWEAKED THE WX AND POP ONES BASED ON THE CURRENT
RADAR IMAGES AND HRRR PROGS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON ITS TREK EAST. A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTHWEST FROM THIS
LOW AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO POP UP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS ARE TAKING SHAPE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUD COVER. THEY ARE
FEEDING ON RELATIVELY ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
CWA. LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS AND ROVING SHOWERS TO HELP STIR THE AIR
AND MITIGATE OUR CURRENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. THE
MOST SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
WHILE RIDGES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. WINDS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY TAKE A DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY TO END THE WORK WEEK AND START THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST
ECMWF AND NAM12 ARE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE CLUSTERING WITH
THE CORE OF THIS WAVE BUT STILL REASONABLE. THIS TROUGH AND ITS
ENERGY DIVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WITH
HEIGHTS REBOUNDING BY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
FOR DETAILS WITH THIS FROPA EVENT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AROUND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY FROM
THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
LIMITED BY THE MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DESPITE DECENT
DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOME WIND SHEAR ALOFT...AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS... IN ADDITION TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. THE INSTABILITY
WANES DURING THE EVENING WITH THUNDER MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT. POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AND
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR
HIGHS COMPARED TO THURSDAY AND TODAY.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
SATURDAY. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNED ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS MORNING/S
LOW TEMPERATURES AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR
TO CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
THE PERIOD WILL BEING WITH A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION
AND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTED
TROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE WEATHER PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK
WILL FEATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE COLD...WITH READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND 50
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE
EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THIS BOUT OF RAIN WOULD BE
TRIGGERED BY SLOW AND WEAKENING EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ONCE
THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...WE SHOULD SEE OTHERWISE DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE CURRENTLY...NOT AFFECTING
ANY TAF SITES. AFTER 15Z...MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
SITES AS THE CLOUDS LOWER AND SHOWERS MORE EFFECTIVELY DEVELOP.
BY MIDDAY...MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
FROM ANY STORM. IN A THUNDERSTORM...CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FALL
TO IFR OR BELOW FOR A SHORT TIME. LOOK FOR CIGS TO FALL
LATER TONIGHT POST FRONTAL WITH IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH MVFR FOG. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO 10
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO
WEST/NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS POST FROPA...SETTLING TO NEAR
CALM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS. ALSO TWEAKED THE WX AND POP ONES BASED ON THE CURRENT
RADAR IMAGES AND HRRR PROGS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON ITS TREK EAST. A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTHWEST FROM THIS
LOW AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO POP UP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS ARE TAKING SHAPE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUD COVER. THEY ARE
FEEDING ON RELATIVELY ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
CWA. LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS AND ROVING SHOWERS TO HELP STIR THE AIR
AND MITIGATE OUR CURRENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. THE
MOST SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
WHILE RIDGES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. WINDS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY TAKE A DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY TO END THE WORK WEEK AND START THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST
ECMWF AND NAM12 ARE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE CLUSTERING WITH
THE CORE OF THIS WAVE BUT STILL REASONABLE. THIS TROUGH AND ITS
ENERGY DIVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WITH
HEIGHTS REBOUNDING BY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
FOR DETAILS WITH THIS FROPA EVENT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AROUND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY FROM
THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
LIMITED BY THE MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DESPITE DECENT
DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOME WIND SHEAR ALOFT...AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS... IN ADDITION TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. THE INSTABILITY
WANES DURING THE EVENING WITH THUNDER MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT. POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AND
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR
HIGHS COMPARED TO THURSDAY AND TODAY.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
SATURDAY. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNED ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS MORNING/S
LOW TEMPERATURES AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR
TO CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
THE PERIOD WILL BEING WITH A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION
AND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTED
TROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE WEATHER PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK
WILL FEATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE COLD...WITH READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND 50
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE
EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THIS BOUT OF RAIN WOULD BE
TRIGGERED BY SLOW AND WEAKENING EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ONCE
THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...WE SHOULD SEE OTHERWISE DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE CURRENTLY...NOT AFFECTING
ANY TAF SITES. AFTER 15Z...MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
SITES AS THE CLOUDS LOWER AND SHOWERS MORE EFFECTIVELY DEVELOP.
BY MIDDAY...MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
FROM ANY STORM. IN A THUNDERSTORM...CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FALL
TO IFR OR BELOW FOR A SHORT TIME. LOOK FOR CIGS TO FALL
LATER TONIGHT POST FRONTAL WITH IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH MVFR FOG. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO 10
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO
WEST/NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS POST FROPA...SETTLING TO NEAR
CALM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
315 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON ITS TREK EAST. A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTHWEST FROM THIS
LOW AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO POP UP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS ARE TAKING SHAPE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUD COVER. THEY ARE
FEEDING ON RELATIVELY ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
CWA. LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS AND ROVING SHOWERS TO HELP STIR THE AIR
AND MITIGATE OUR CURRENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. THE
MOST SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
WHILE RIDGES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. WINDS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY TAKE A DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY TO END THE WORK WEEK AND START THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST
ECMWF AND NAM12 ARE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE CLUSTERING WITH
THE CORE OF THIS WAVE BUT STILL REASONABLE. THIS TROUGH AND ITS
ENERGY DIVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WITH
HEIGHTS REBOUNDING BY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
FOR DETAILS WITH THIS FROPA EVENT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AROUND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY FROM
THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
LIMITED BY THE MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DESPITE DECENT
DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOME WIND SHEAR ALOFT...AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS... IN ADDITION TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. THE INSTABILITY
WANES DURING THE EVENING WITH THUNDER MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT. POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AND
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR
HIGHS COMPARED TO THURSDAY AND TODAY.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
SATURDAY. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNED ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS MORNING/S
LOW TEMPERATURES AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR
TO CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
THE PERIOD WILL BEING WITH A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION
AND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTED
TROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE WEATHER PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK
WILL FEATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE COLD...WITH READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND 50
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE
EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THIS BOUT OF RAIN WOULD BE
TRIGGERED BY SLOW AND WEAKENING EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ONCE
THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...WE SHOULD SEE OTHERWISE DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
CLOUDS ARE THICKENING UP OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE SEEN...ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO POP UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW AS THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THROUGH DAWN.
AFTER 15Z...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS THE
CLOUDS LOWER AND SHOWERS MORE EFFECTIVELY DEVELOP. BY MIDDAY...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA.
THE RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE FROM
ANY STORM. IN A THUNDERSTORM...CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FALL TO
IFR OR BELOW FOR A SHORT TIME. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO 10
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO
WEST/NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS POST FROPA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1248 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...DRAWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE: IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE BAND OF
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA W/THE BEST ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. SOME CLEARING COULD BE SEEN BACK ACROSS
QUEBEC. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM MODEL WAS DOING QUITE WELL
W/THE CLOUDS AND SHOWED SOME CLEARING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS ARRIVE
AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPS WERE DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NW
AREAS W/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS NE AND FURTHER S. TEMPS
COULD ACTUALLY FALL BACK FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF
W/THAT CLEARING MENTIONED ABOVE. THEREFORE, ADJUSTED THE HRLY
TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT MINS. TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE RAIN BACK A FEW HRS FROM
EARLIER THINKING BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND HRRR TIMING.
ORGNL DISC: CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES ARE STREAMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL LIMIT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING, IN SPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. HAVE
THEREFORE GONE TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S
LOW TEMPERATURES; LOWER/MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S SOUTH. HOWEVER, COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD ANY
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD DECK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN SECTIONS BY 8 AM,
EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR EASTERN BORDER BY NOONTIME. THE LOW WILL BE
DEEPENING AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE, ALONG WITH A 50+KT LOW-
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD LIFT AND UPSLOPE INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE THERE AS WELL WITH PWATS OF
1.25 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. HAVE THEREFORE
INCREASED EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TOMORROW, WITH AREAS FROM
HOULTON AND GREENVILLE SOUTH TO SEE A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. NORTH OF THIS LINE, RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF
AN INCH. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN THE NORTHERN AREAS, WHILE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCATIONS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
AN UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION. RAIN WILL DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN DECREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES NORTHERN
AREAS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COULD ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH MIXED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING
BRINGING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS
WARMER AIR FOLLOWS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MONDAY WILL BE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COMBINED WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL THEN APPROACH EARLY TUESDAY POSSIBLY FORMING A SMALL
SECONDARY LOW NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO
MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SMALL OCCLUSION QUICKLY APPROACHING
IN OUR FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THEY
WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE
REGION AFTER 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TO 00Z
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY AT KBGR AND KBHB.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS; GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE
EXPECTED. SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, BUILDING TO 5-6 FEET BY
MID AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
736 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOME
TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...THERE IS A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BTWN SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM THE OH
RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LO PRES CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA.
DESPITE STRONG WINDS UNDER THIS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NOT FAR ABOVE
THE SFC AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB...WHERE SW WINDS WERE AS HI AS
50 KTS AT 3K FT AGL...SHARP WAA IN THIS FLOW THAT IS FCST TO INCRS
H85 TEMPS ABOUT 10C THRU THE DAY BUT RELATIVELY SLOW NEAR SFC
WARMING LIMITED BY LOWERING SUN ANGLE AND INFLUX OF HI CLDS HAVE
KEPT LLVL STABILITY RELATIVELY HI AND LIMITED DEEP MIXING/SFC WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF HI CLD
SPILLING INTO THE AREA...VERY DRY AIR BTWN H85 AND ABOUT H5 AS SHOWN
ON THE UPSTREAM MPX AND GRB RAOBS HAS LIMITED THE COVERAGE OF ANY
LOWER CLD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WINDS AND TEMPS AS
RELATIVELY DRY SW FLOW WL PERSIST THRU SUN.
TNGT...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/RIBBON OF H925 SW WINDS UP TO 35-40 KTS
ARE FCST TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVNG BEFORE RELAXING OVERNGT AS SFC HI
PRES RDG TO THE SE SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. SO ANY
STRONGER WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG WHEN SFC TEMPS ARE HIER/
LLVL INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT GREATER WL DIMINISH THRU THE NGT WITH THE
SLACKENING GRADIENT/DIURNAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER WINDS WL
DIMINISH...SUSPECT THE SW FLOW WL REMAIN STEADY ENUF IN THE WARM
SECTOR TO LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING DESPITE A FORECAST GRADUAL DECREASE
IN HI LVL RH/HI CLDS. SO ALTHOUGH THE COOLER SPOTS WL SEE TEMPS DIP
INTO THE UPR 40S...READINGS WL HOLD IN THE 50S AT MANY PLACES.
EXPECT THE HIEST MIN TEMPS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
SUN...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIRMASS UNDER INCOMING UPR RDG
AXIS...EXPECT A MOSUNNY DAY WITH PERSISTENT LLVL SW FLOW. H85 TEMPS
ARE FCST TO PEAK AOA 20C...WHICH WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS RISING WELL
INTO THE 70S AT MOST PLACES AWAY FM MODERATION OFF LK MI. THE
DOWNSLOPE WARM SPOTS OVER THE W MAY SEE THE MERCURY REACH AOA 80.
THE RECORD HI MAX TEMP FOR THE MARQUETTE NWS IS 77 TMRW. SOME NEW
DAILY RECORDS MAY BE ESTABLISHED. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO BE
MUCH WEAKER TMRW...SO WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE UNDER 20 MPH OR SO
DESPITE THE HIER SFC TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
...STRONG WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...
ATTN SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE ON DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC
LOW TRACKING ACROSS MANITOBA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW
SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING MID CLOUDS BUT LOW-LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. A VERY WARM NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AND
MAYBE STAYING ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE 50S...SO THAT PUTS A LITTLE PERSPECTIVE ON
THESE TEMPERATURES. WRAPPED UP TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR AND
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS ARE OVER 200M BY
TIME TROUGH CROSSES ON MONDAY. SFC LOW DOWN TO 980MB AT 12Z MONDAY
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR LIFTS EAST TO JAMES BAY BY 00Z TUESDAY. COLD
CONVEYOR/WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AT H85-H7 ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION /H85 TEMPS AT 12Z MONDAY +8C OVER WESTERN U.P. FALLING
TO 0C BY 21Z/ SHOULD SUPPORT BLOSSOMING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS
FROM THE WEST TO NCNTRL CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. BIGGER STORY APPEARS
TO BE WINDS THOUGH.
INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE SFC
LOW /14MB GRADIENT LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR/ WILL COINCIDE WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
RAPIDLY INCREASING 950MB-850MB WINDS...REACHING 40-45 KTS IN THOSE
LAYERS 21Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD
PORTION OF THOSE WINDS MIXING TO SFC DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
NW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. SHORELINE AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND OVER ALGER
AND LUCE COUNTIES LIKELY WILL NEED WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. DUE TO THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE
THINK STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND OVER THE CWA.
STRONGER WINDS INLAND WOULD BE MONDAY EVENING DURING PEAK OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION. WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER
MUCH OF EAST CWA WITH LESS INTERRUPTION OF WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW LIFTING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND WITH
WEAK SFC RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SERIES OF TROUGHS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE OVER FAR WESTERN CONUS.
WEAKER SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT BY THE END
OF THE WEEK THERE IS HINT OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH AND
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT TIMING OF
COLDEST AIR ARRIVING IS STILL IN DEBATE WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING AT
THIS POINT. GFS SHOWS H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -10C BY FRIDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS NOT AS COLD FRIDAY BUT DOES BRINGS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -8C BY
SATURDAY. WHETHER OR NOT FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE SEEN
WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLDEST AIR AND HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE
IS AROUND AS THIS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE
LEAST...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PROBABLY WILL SEE GRAUPEL IN THE
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AS WELL. DAYTIME TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL STAY IN THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS LOW TO MID LEVELS REMAINS QUITE DRY. AS GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO LLWS.
THE LLWS WILL END OVERNIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT/WINDS AT TOP OF THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WEAKEN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
STRONG SW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS UNDER A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
A DEPARTING HI PRES RIDGE TO THE SE AND FALLING PRES OVER SCENTRAL
CANADA WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. BUT AS THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
WEAKENS THRU THE NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS RELATIVELY
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN/SUN NIGHT AND BRING SW
WINDS UNDER 20 KTS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP LOW PRES THROUGH
THROUGH ONTARIO ON MON...STRONG W WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH MON NIGHT WHILE VEERING TO THE NW. SINCE COLDER AIR WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS...INCREASED MIXING WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD GALES THAT WILL REACH 40-45
KTS. OPTED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR MON INTO TUE MORNING TO COVER
THIS POTENTIAL. TRAILING HI PRES WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS FOR
TUE INTO WED. AFTER ANOTHER TROF PASSES ON WED...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS INTO THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ266-267.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ162-263.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ264.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
115 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT |108 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
RELATIVELY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD. INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN
THIS MORNING IS DEALING WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR HAS PERFORMED WELL IN HANDLING
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...INDICATING LAST EVENING THAT A HOLE WOULD
BE BLOWN OPEN IN THE CLOUD DECK FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
WESTERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HENCE...INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS MORNING OUT WEST AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER THERE CONTINUES TO
HOLD STRONG. THE EXPECTATION WITH THE CLOUD COVER IS THAT THE DRY
WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST...AND THE CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN MN WILL DO THE SAME...SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN MN THIS MORNING. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DRYING CONDITIONS AND ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL
DIMINISH THE CLOUD DECK...EXPECT IT TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS AND COME CLOUD
COVER DURING THE DAY...HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE UPPER 50S FOR
MOST...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW 60S IN FAR WESTERN MN.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING...SO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE HIGH WILL DEPART THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE`LL
SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
RATHER FEW ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN THIS EXTENDED FCST PKG.
SFC HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER THE GRT LKS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS WHILE A LARGE SFC RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WARMING OVER THE UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO STRONG SWLY SFC FLOW AND INCRD H5 HEIGHTS TO
THE 576-579 DAM RANGE. H85 TEMPS WILL INCRS TO ARND 20 DEG C BY
SUN...AND THIS WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
ATOP THE REGION. THUS...SUNDAY HAS POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MULTIPLE SITES WITHIN THE WFO MPX CWFA. MIXING STILL DOES NOT LOOK
AS OPTIMIZED AS POSSIBLE DUE TO A SLIGHT RELAXING OF THE WIND
FIELDS...THUS TEMPS MAY FALL JUST SHORT BUT STILL HIT THE LWR 80S
FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA.
AN APPROACHING CDFNT FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL BRING A SHARP
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES GOING INTO MON TO THE TUNE OF 15-20
DEGREES COOLER CWFA-WIDE. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FROPA...SO HAVE CONFINED ONLY SLGT CHC POPS TO THE NRN
AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA FOR DURG THE DAY ON MON. HOWEVER...A
VERY TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ALONG WITH VORTICITY PACKING WITH THE
FROPA WILL MEAN A STRONG INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FOR MONDAY...
POSSIBLY TO WIND ADVY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE MODELS
DEVELOP THIS SCHEME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEYOND MON...THE FCST REMAINS DRY WITH COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. 4000FT CEILINGS WILL LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE CLOSE TO SUNSET. ON SATURDAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...WITH LATE MORNING GUSTS NEAR
20 TO 20 KTS.
KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. 4000FT CEILINGS WILL LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE CLOSE TO SUNSET. ON SATURDAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...WITH LATE MORNING GUSTS NEAR
20 TO 20 KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KT.
MON...VFR AND WINDY. WIND NW AT 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND WSW AT 15G20KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
553 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
RELATIVELY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD. INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN
THIS MORNING IS DEALING WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR HAS PERFORMED WELL IN HANDLING
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...INDICATING LAST EVENING THAT A HOLE WOULD
BE BLOWN OPEN IN THE CLOUD DECK FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
WESTERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HENCE...INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS MORNING OUT WEST AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER THERE CONTINUES TO
HOLD STRONG. THE EXPECTATION WITH THE CLOUD COVER IS THAT THE DRY
WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST...AND THE CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN MN WILL DO THE SAME...SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN MN THIS MORNING. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DRYING CONDITIONS AND ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL
DIMINISH THE CLOUD DECK...EXPECT IT TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS AND COME CLOUD
COVER DURING THE DAY...HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE UPPER 50S FOR
MOST...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW 60S IN FAR WESTERN MN.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING...SO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE HIGH WILL DEPART THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE`LL
SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
RATHER FEW ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN THIS EXTENDED FCST PKG.
SFC HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER THE GRT LKS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS WHILE A LARGE SFC RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WARMING OVER THE UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO STRONG SWLY SFC FLOW AND INCRD H5 HEIGHTS TO
THE 576-579 DAM RANGE. H85 TEMPS WILL INCRS TO ARND 20 DEG C BY
SUN...AND THIS WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
ATOP THE REGION. THUS...SUNDAY HAS POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MULTIPLE SITES WITHIN THE WFO MPX CWFA. MIXING STILL DOES NOT LOOK
AS OPTIMIZED AS POSSIBLE DUE TO A SLIGHT RELAXING OF THE WIND
FIELDS...THUS TEMPS MAY FALL JUST SHORT BUT STILL HIT THE LWR 80S
FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA.
AN APPROACHING CDFNT FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL BRING A SHARP
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES GOING INTO MON TO THE TUNE OF 15-20
DEGREES COOLER CWFA-WIDE. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FROPA...SO HAVE CONFINED ONLY SLGT CHC POPS TO THE NRN
AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA FOR DURG THE DAY ON MON. HOWEVER...A
VERY TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ALONG WITH VORTICITY PACKING WITH THE
FROPA WILL MEAN A STRONG INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FOR MONDAY...
POSSIBLY TO WIND ADVY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE MODELS
DEVELOP THIS SCHEME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEYOND MON...THE FCST REMAINS DRY WITH COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
AS HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWED...CLOUD DECK IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI HAS ERODED RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT...SO MSP AND AREAS EAST WILL SEE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING. THE
HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATED THE CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN
MN WORKING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THOUGH...SO INDICATED VFR
LEVEL BKN CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN WESTERLY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SO A SLIGHT
INCREASE AND WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. NO PRECIP EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
KMSP...INDICATED A FEW HOURS OF BKN CEILINGS AS HRRR SEEMED TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. ITS VERY POSSIBLE
THE LOW LEVEL DRYING COULD SCATTER THE CLOUDS OUT IN WESTERN MN
BEFORE THEY CAN REACH MSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
403 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
RELATIVELY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD. INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN
THIS MORNING IS DEALING WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR HAS PERFORMED WELL IN HANDLING
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...INDICATING LAST EVENING THAT A HOLE WOULD
BE BLOWN OPEN IN THE CLOUD DECK FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
WESTERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HENCE...INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS MORNING OUT WEST AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER THERE CONTINUES TO
HOLD STRONG. THE EXPECTATION WITH THE CLOUD COVER IS THAT THE DRY
WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST...AND THE CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN MN WILL DO THE SAME...SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN MN THIS MORNING. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DRYING CONDITIONS AND ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL
DIMINISH THE CLOUD DECK...EXPECT IT TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS AND COME CLOUD
COVER DURING THE DAY...HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE UPPER 50S FOR
MOST...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW 60S IN FAR WESTERN MN.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING...SO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE HIGH WILL DEPART THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE`LL
SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
RATHER FEW ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN THIS EXTENDED FCST PKG.
SFC HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER THE GRT LKS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS WHILE A LARGE SFC RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WARMING OVER THE UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO STRONG SWLY SFC FLOW AND INCRD H5 HEIGHTS TO
THE 576-579 DAM RANGE. H85 TEMPS WILL INCRS TO ARND 20 DEG C BY
SUN...AND THIS WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
ATOP THE REGION. THUS...SUNDAY HAS POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MULTIPLE SITES WITHIN THE WFO MPX CWFA. MIXING STILL DOES NOT LOOK
AS OPTIMIZED AS POSSIBLE DUE TO A SLIGHT RELAXING OF THE WIND
FIELDS...THUS TEMPS MAY FALL JUST SHORT BUT STILL HIT THE LWR 80S
FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA.
AN APPROACHING CDFNT FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL BRING A SHARP
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES GOING INTO MON TO THE TUNE OF 15-20
DEGREES COOLER CWFA-WIDE. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FROPA...SO HAVE CONFINED ONLY SLGT CHC POPS TO THE NRN
AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA FOR DURG THE DAY ON MON. HOWEVER...A
VERY TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ALONG WITH VORTICITY PACKING WITH THE
FROPA WILL MEAN A STRONG INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FOR MONDAY...
POSSIBLY TO WIND ADVY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE MODELS
DEVELOP THIS SCHEME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEYOND MON...THE FCST REMAINS DRY WITH COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTH HAS HELPED RAISE
CEILINGS TO AROUND 030-035 LATE THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE. WITH THE INCOMING RIDGE FROM
THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...IT/S LIKELY THAT THE CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MN. AN
EXCEPTION IS ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI WHERE SOME CLEARING
MAY WORK IN LATE TONIGHT FROM KDLH. TOUGH CALL ON FRIDAY WITH A
NEGATIVE CU RULE FORECAST BY THE NAM AND RAP. THEREFORE KEPT BKN
VFR CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GOING SCATTERED IN
THE AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-8 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN BACKING TO
THE SSW BY FRIDAY EVENING.
KMSP...CEILING SHOULD BECOME OVC035 BY 08Z IF NOT SOONER.
BKN035-040 EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH SCT040 IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS SIMILAR TO THOSE DESCRIBED ABOVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSW 15-20G25 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 20-25G30 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
850 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
A FAST MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS TAKEN HOLD WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PULL COOLER AIR FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD AND REPLACE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
RAPIDLY DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
A RED FLAG WARNING AND EXTENDED THE HOURS UNTIL 02Z MONDAY.
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY NEARLY SUPPORT RFW
CONDITIONS AS AREA RAWS STATIONS REPORTED RH AS LOW AS 16% WITH
20FT WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GIVEN THE FACT THAT SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER...DRIER...AND HAVE MORE WIND WE FELT IT WAS
NECESSARY TO GET THE WORD OUT NOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THE REGION WILL BE IN THE FINAL BREAKDOWN STAGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR LARGE
RANGE LAND FIRE GROWTH. NOT TO BE OVERLOOKED IS THE FACT THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL BARREL THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SOLID MID HAINES 6 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY OF THE THREE /LOW RH AND WIND...HAINES
6...COLD FRONT WITH WARM/DRY CONDITIONS/ ARE POSSIBLE LOCAL CRITERIA
FOR A RFW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE BIAS
CORRECTED MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TO MID
90S. THIS STRATEGY APPEARS TO BE WORKING THIS AFTERNOON AS HOURLY
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO THE OBSERVED READINGS. THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE WOULD HAVE TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE SFC TO GET CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE AND WE WILL SEE IF THAT
MATERIALIZES THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD BE
A FEW DEGREES TO WARM.
THE MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT USES THE SAME STRATEGY AS THE
MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST PRODUCING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT INCREASE SUNDAY AFTN TO 25 MPH.
GUSTS TO 35 MPH SEEM LIKELY ACROSS WRN NEB. THESE STRONGER WINDS
WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES WARM LATE IN THE AFTN AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THE GFS IS LEADING THE PACK WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING
IN FROM THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. THE MODEL IS
KNOWN FOR DEEP MIXING BUT APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING IT THIS AFTN. SO A
BLEND OF GFS AND OTHER MODELS WAS USED FOR THE DEW POINTS SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL GET IN RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS
WHICH RUN OUT TO 18 HRS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MORE ACCURATE FORECAST.
THE MODEL BLEND USED TODAY EFFECTIVELY NUDGES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND A RIDGE
ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A MOIST
TRAJECTORY INTO THE AREA. THUS...AS THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH THE
STATE SUNDAY EVENING...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES...
HOWEVER...WILL BE AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY. EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH LOWER MONDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...ALSO QUITE LOW. THEREFORE...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE 15 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST
SANDHILLS AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY OVER
EVEN MORE OF THE SANDHILLS AND IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. USING A
BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED STATISTICAL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM AND GFS...EVEN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...MILD DAYS AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED. THEN...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
WINDS WILL BE AN AVIATION CONCERN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER 17Z AND
BECOME 29018G28KT AFT 19Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR BOTH KLBF AND KVTN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
THE GFS IS LEADING THE PACK WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING
IN FROM THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. THE MODEL IS
KNOWN FOR DEEP MIXING BUT APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING IT THIS AFTN. SO A
BLEND OF GFS AND OTHER MODELS WAS USED FOR THE DEW POINTS SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL GET IN RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS
WHICH RUN OUT TO 18 HRS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MORE ACCURATE FORECAST.
THE MODEL BLEND USED TODAY EFFECTIVELY NUDGES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...COLE
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
656 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
A FAST MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS TAKEN HOLD WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PULL COOLER AIR FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD AND REPLACE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
RAPIDLY DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE BIAS
CORRECTED MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TO MID
90S. THIS STRATEGY APPEARS TO BE WORKING THIS AFTERNOON AS HOURLY
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO THE OBSERVED READINGS. THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE WOULD HAVE TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE SFC TO GET CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE AND WE WILL SEE IF THAT
MATERIALIZES THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD BE
A FEW DEGREES TO WARM.
THE MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT USES THE SAME STRATEGY AS THE
MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST PRODUCING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT INCREASE SUNDAY AFTN TO 25 MPH.
GUSTS TO 35 MPH SEEM LIKELY ACROSS WRN NEB. THESE STRONGER WINDS
WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES WARM LATE IN THE AFTN AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THE GFS IS LEADING THE PACK WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING
IN FROM THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. THE MODEL IS
KNOWN FOR DEEP MIXING BUT APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING IT THIS AFTN. SO A
BLEND OF GFS AND OTHER MODELS WAS USED FOR THE DEW POINTS SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL GET IN RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS
WHICH RUN OUT TO 18 HRS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MORE ACCURATE FORECAST.
THE MODEL BLEND USED TODAY EFFECTIVELY NUDGES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND A RIDGE
ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A MOIST
TRAJECTORY INTO THE AREA. THUS...AS THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH THE
STATE SUNDAY EVENING...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES...
HOWEVER...WILL BE AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY. EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH LOWER MONDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...ALSO QUITE LOW. THEREFORE...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE 15 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST
SANDHILLS AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY OVER
EVEN MORE OF THE SANDHILLS AND IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. USING A
BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED STATISTICAL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM AND GFS...EVEN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...MILD DAYS AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED. THEN...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
WINDS WILL BE AN AVIATION CONCERN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER 17Z AND
BECOME 29018G28KT AFT 19Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR BOTH KLBF AND KVTN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
THE GFS IS LEADING THE PACK WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING
IN FROM THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. THE MODEL IS
KNOWN FOR DEEP MIXING BUT APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING IT THIS AFTN. SO A
BLEND OF GFS AND OTHER MODELS WAS USED FOR THE DEW POINTS SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL GET IN RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS
WHICH RUN OUT TO 18 HRS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MORE ACCURATE FORECAST.
THE MODEL BLEND USED TODAY EFFECTIVELY NUDGES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...COLE
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE PCPN CHANCES FOR
TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONGEST 500 MB 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 12Z WERE CENTERED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RADAR ECHOES OUT OF A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK SPREADING SEWD.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP13 MODEL RUNS SHOW LIGHT PCPN SPREADING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. THINK
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...0.02 INCHES OR LESS AT MOST SPOTS...
BUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO JUST GO WITH
AREAL COVERAGE WORDING. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO END AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT EXIT THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY UP OVER MN
AND THE ERN DKTS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO IA AND PARTS OF ERN NE
LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
WE EXPECT A MODERATELY THICK AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. LOOK FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID
OR UPPER 60S...BUT SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE IN WRN IOWA.
RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMP PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS 75 TO
80 IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND LOWER 80S WEST. THERE ARE HINTS THAT
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY MORNING SO
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THAT POTENTIAL. BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT FOR
SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE MOVING IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE SEEMS
LIMITED AT THIS POINT SO KEPT POPS BELOW 10 PERCENT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS PERIOD MAINLY DRY. A FAIRLY STRONG PUSH
OF COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S FOR MONDAY. FAIRLY FAST W/NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW...BUT THESE
SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH PCPN. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OFF THE BAJA
COAST MOVING UP TO CA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOCALLY...HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A DECK OF MVFR CIGS
MAY FILL INTO THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER
INCLUDED A MENTION OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT OMAHA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
152 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION AND BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. SHOWERS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER AIR BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT A CHILLY BUT DRY SATURDAY...BEFORE
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST... WITH THE MAIN THEME
BEING AN OVERALL SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THIS
MEANS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
RAPIDLY ENDING BEFORE LUNCH TIME FRIDAY. RAIN WILL LINGER LONGEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER / FINGER LAKES BUT WILL TAPER OFF TO MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER LUNCH TIME.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY WILL TRACK
EASTWARD...PASSING JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS A
SLUG OF STEADY RAIN WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MICHIGAN INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE THIS EVENING. THIS AREA EXTENDS ALONG AN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UNDERNEATH THE NOSE OF A LLJ AVERAGING 40
KTS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL CONSENSUS CAPTURES THIS WELL...WITH RECENT
RUNS OF THE NAM/GEM/GFS/HRRR IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THIS AREA
TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. RADAR
TRENDS AND MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORT HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE...WITH
A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN AND A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS.
SOUTH OF THIS IS A MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN AREA OF SHOWERS. THIS
IS BEST CAPTURED BY THE HRRR...WITH THIS AREA SET TO BRING SOME
RAIN TO THE LAKE PLAINS FROM 11PM TO 4AM. THERE ARE SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN THIS...AND WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM. SOUTH OF THIS SHOULD STAY DRY
UNTIL THE FRONT COMES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. THE 00Z NAM AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THIS FRONT AND AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THERE IS STILL GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO ALL AREAS LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A MILD OCTOBER NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WILL BE DEEPENING...IT WILL ONLY DO SO A FEW MB...AND LACKING
ANY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WE SHOULD ONLY SEE A MODEST INCREASE
IN WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...UPWARDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH. CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW LINGERS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION
WHERE SOME POSSIBLE LATE DAY SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD SATURDAY...LEADING TO QUIET
AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 50S...
DESPITE A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW AND SIMPLE AIRMASS
MODIFICATION ALLOWING HIGHS TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...ALBEIT AN INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER CANADA WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY...AS WE BECOME
POSITIONED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE AS IT SINKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN ARMER AIR AND
INCREASE MIXING...PUSHING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN LOW WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
WILL REMAIN LIMITED...THE DEGREE OF DYNAMICS SUPPORTS ONGOING SHOWER
MENTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT WAVE AND ATTENDANT SHOWER CHANCES
RETURNING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH A DEVELOPING SSW
FLOW DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP KEEP CIGS IN THE VFR OR MVFR CATEGORY.
A 40 KT LLJ WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL LLWS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ANY WOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE.
THE LOWEST CIGS/VSBY SHOULD COME RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH IFR
CIGS/VSBY LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER THIS EXPECT RAIN TO END FROM W-E AND A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. IFR CIGS MAY LINGER
BEHIND THE FRONT IN SOME LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR CIGS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CREATING MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR LAKE ERIE AND THE UPPER
NIAGARA RIVER. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY REACH
20 KNOTS OR SO ON LAKE ERIE...WHICH WILL ALSO GENERATE WAVES NEAR
4 FEET. THERE MAY BE A TIME EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF NON-SCA
CONDITIONS AS WINDS SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WITH WINDS
AGAIN INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM
EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/CHURCH
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1003 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE THIS EVENING IS TO INCREASE CLOUDS AS WIDESPREAD
CIRRUS IS BEING OBSERVED MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM MISSOURI AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER NORTH WITH THIS CURRENT CIRRUS... BUT WILL
ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FARTHER SOUTH SOMEWHAT AS HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT MORE HIGH CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE
BAND SEEN NOW. ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN A BIT QUICKER
THAN THE HOURLY GRIDS WOULD HAVE SUGGESTED... THE DECREASE IN
TEMPS MAY SLOW WITH THESE CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD SO HAVE ONLY
LOWERED MINS A DEGREE OR SO.
EARLIER THIS EVENING... ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS ON MONDAY AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE STATE FORESTRY
DEPARTMENT DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND THE
WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MOST
TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATE TOMORROW MORNING
TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT FROM THE SSW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON... LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK ACROSS FAR SWRN OK/WRN N TX
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... CONDITIONS WILL STAY RATHER CALM AND
MILD... WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGH DAYBREAK. WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH NOON AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS DUE
TO THE APPROACHING SFC TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...
UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. NEAR RECORD
HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED AT SOME LOCATIONS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN OK
AND WRN N TX. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 96 FOR WICHITA FALLS IS ONE
DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD OF 97... WHICH OCCURRED IN 1979. COMBINED
WITH BREEZY... 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTS... THROUGH THE AFTN... FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... UPON THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST... SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW...
LIKELY BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NWRN OK... CONTINUING ACROSS
THE REST OF WEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH SUNRISE. BEHIND THE FRONT... A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS WRN OK. 3HR PRESSURE
CHANGES BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z WILL BE WITHIN 5 TO 7MB. BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER... WITH MEAN LAYER
WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING OF 35 TO 40 KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS AND GOOD CONTINUITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL GUIDANCE
RUNS... CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR STRONG WINDS... SUSTAINED 25 TO
30 AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH... OVER SEVERAL HOURS MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE... FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF WRN OK AND WRN N TX. IN
RELATION... GAVE THOUGHT TO A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH... HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET WHEN INCLUDING TEMPS AND RH. WITH THAT
SAID... GIVEN SUCH STRONG WINDS... FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED AS ANY FIRE COULD EASILY BECOME UNMANAGEABLE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL
KEEP THE SRN PLAINS IN A PATTERN OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK
FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY...
STALLING OUT AND WEAKENING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. LATE IN THE WEEK... AN ADDITIONAL
FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA... WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
JTK
FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY... WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF W/SW OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. FOR MONDAY... STRONG N/NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
MORNING... WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH GUSTS IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH... ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME
UNMANAGEABLE. PLEASE REMAIN MINDFUL OF WEATHER AND FUEL
CONDITIONS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 62 91 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 63 92 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 64 96 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 59 92 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 60 91 61 80 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 59 93 69 89 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ009-014>017-021>024-027-033>039-044-045.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ014-016-021>023-033>038-044.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ014-016-
021>023-033>038-044.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ083>086.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A Cold front is expected to move into Northeast Oklahoma late
tonight and push southeast through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas Friday morning. Precip chances will remain possible along
and behind the front and should tapper off by Friday afternoon
from north to south. VFR Conditions should continue through the
TAF Period with northerly winds behind the front and clearing
skies late in the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
Delayed the onset of pops and lowered pops a bit for the remainder
of the night based on current radar and HRRR output. Could see
some spotty gusty winds with this activity...but significant
severe weather is not expected.
Updated products are on the way.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 59 76 48 78 / 50 40 0 0
FSM 64 79 49 80 / 20 20 10 0
MLC 62 77 49 80 / 20 30 0 0
BVO 57 76 43 78 / 60 40 0 0
FYV 55 71 42 75 / 20 30 0 0
BYV 56 70 46 73 / 30 40 0 0
MKO 61 76 47 79 / 30 40 0 0
MIO 57 73 44 76 / 60 50 0 0
F10 61 75 50 78 / 30 30 0 0
HHW 64 86 55 84 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
222 PM PDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CONCERN AHEAD WILL AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL TONIGHT WITH HIGH AND STEEP SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.WHILE THE SWELL IS NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE ANY
SURF ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS, IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNEAKER
WAVES. SEE PDXSPSMFR AND PDXMWSMFR FOR DETAILS.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS NEAR THE COAST AND WILL MOVE INLAND
THIS EVENING. SO FAR, NO RETURNS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON THE RADAR AND
NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT ANY OF THE SURFACE OBS. THE 12Z NAM AND
GFS SHOW A WEAK FRONT REACHING THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING
INLAND THIS EVENING. THE NAM IS BULLISH WITH THE QPF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT SUSPECT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. IN CONTRAST THE GFS
IS DRY AND THE CURRENT RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS AT
THE COAST, MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND LITTLE IS ANYTHING OVERNIGHT.
THIS EVENINGS FRONT WILL BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG FURTHER ON SATURDAY AND MOVE INLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONGER FRONT THAT IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY A 100KT JET WILL REACH THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
THEN MOVE INLAND SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE AT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS, NORTH CASCADES
AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER, BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.
AT THE SAME TIME 700MB WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND COULD PEAK
OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME OF
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL SURFACE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THEREFORE
GUSTY WINDS ARE A GOOD BET, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NEAR SUMMER LAKE AND WILL BE STRONGEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES
COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA, SO ITS SOMETHING THAT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY WEAK UPPER RIDGING SUNDAY. ANY RAINFALL WILL END EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH DRYING AND MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE EC AND GFS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE REGION STARTING NEXT MONDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND
WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH VARYING AMOUNTS
OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST, THEREFORE IT`S POSSIBLE
WE COULD HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTH COAST DEPENDING ON
THE POSITION OF THE THERMAL TROUGH. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/18Z TAF CYCLE...INLAND...INLAND AREAS CAN
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE VALLEYS OF THE COASTAL RANGE
AND THE UMPQUA BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ALONG THE COAST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL AFFECT TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL FILL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DEGRADE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER TO IFR AND THEN LIFR. -BPN
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PDT FRIDAY, 9 OCT 2015...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND SOUTHWEST SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF FRONTS ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FIRST FRONT. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST
SWELL FROM THE REMNANTS OF CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE OHO WILL
ARRIVE. THIS 11 TO 14 FOOT SWELL AT 16 SECONDS IS LIKELY TO RESULT
IN 15 TO 20 FOOT BREAKER HEIGHTS. SWELL OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS UNUSUAL
FOR THIS AREA, AND A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT SPSMFR HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED TO DISCUSS
PROBABLE IMPACTS TO BEACH GOERS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS,
WHILE SEAS LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN TO HAZARDOUS AND VERY STEEP
CATEGORY AS THE SOUTHWEST SWELL DECREASES BUT COMBINES WITH AN
INCREASING LONGER PERIOD WEST SWELL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 PM PDT FRIDAY, 9 OCT 2015... THE FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS HAS ARRIVED AT THE COASTTODAY,
BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THERE BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONGIHT. THIS HAS ALSO BROUGHTG SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE EAST SIDE
TODAY. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
ONTO THE COAST WITH SOME WETTING RAINFALL EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY.
WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY IN OTHER WEST SIDE LOCATIONS...AND
VERY UNLIKELY EAST OF THE CASCADES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CRITICAL.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE
LIKELY TO FALL TO ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. -
BPN/SK
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 5
PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
919 AM PDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MARINE WATERS. SO FAR, NO RETURNS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON THE RADAR AND NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT ANY
OF THE SURFACE OBS. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAK FRONT REACHING
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE BULLISH WITH THE QPF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT SUSPECT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. IN CONTRAST THE GFS IS
DRY AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS AT THE
COAST, MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WE`LL MEASURE AT ALL GIVEN THE
FRONT IS WEAK AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND.
THUS HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT
STILL KEPT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTH COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF WE GET ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL, IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH.
A STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO THE COAST, COASTAL
MOUNTAINS NORTH CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. THE NAM
SHOWS A DONUT HOLE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WHICH IS MOSTLY A RESULT OF
DOWNSLOPING, SO DOUBT WE`LL GET ANYTHING MEASURABLE HERE.
-PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/12Z TAF CYCLE...INLAND...VFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN CEILINGS WITH BASES 4000 TO 6000 FT AGL WILL AFFECT
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AROUND 17Z.
ALONG THE COAST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL AFFECT TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED JUST OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND WILL
AFFECT THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING...WITH RAIN POSSIBLE BY NOON.
CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE THIS EVENING AT THE COAST AS CEILINGS LOWER
TO IFR AND THEN LIFR.
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PDT FRIDAY, 9 OCT 2015...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND SOUTHWEST SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF FRONTS ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FIRST FRONT. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST
SWELL FROM THE REMNANTS OF CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE OHO WILL
ARRIVE. THIS 11 TO 14 FOOT SWELL AT 16 SECONDS IS LIKELY TO RESULT
IN 15 TO 20 FOOT BREAKER HEIGHTS. SWELL OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS UNUSUAL
FOR THIS AREA, AND A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT SPSMFR HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED TO DISCUSS
PROBABLE IMPACTS TO BEACH GOERS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS,
WHILE SEAS LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN TO HAZARDOUS AND VERY STEEP
CATEGORY AS THE SOUTHWEST SWELL DECREASES BUT COMBINES WITH AN
INCREASING LONGER PERIOD WEST SWELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM PDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
DISCUSSION...THE REMNANT LOW THAT WAS HURRICANE OHO IS MOVING
INTO B.C. THIS MORNING AND WILL HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. HOWEVER, LARGE SWELLS FROM THE STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH
OUR WATERS AND IMPACT THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE SWELL IS NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE ANY
SURF ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS, IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNEAKER
WAVES. SEE PDXSPSMFR AND PDXMWSMFR FOR DETAILS.
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL
FINALLY MOVE EAST TODAY AND ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE ONSHORE.
THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH RAIN TO WET THE GROUND ALONG THE
COAST, BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS INLAND. INLAND FROM THE COAST, WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE LOTS
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE. BUT LIKE RECENT DAYS, THIS WON`T KEEP US FROM
WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE FIRST FRONT FALLS APART TONIGHT, AND THEN A SECOND, STRONGER
FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WILL PACK MORE
MOISTURE AND BE AIDED BY A 100 KT PLUS UPPER JET. AS A RESULT,
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, ADJACENT COASTAL RANGES, THE
UMPQUA BASIN, AND INTO THE NORTH CASCADES. RAIN PROBABLY WON`T
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO MEDFORD, BUT THERE EXISTS ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE THAT POPS WERE ALSO RAISED FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY. WE WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME SPILL OVER INTO CHEMULT AREA, BUT THAT IS LIKELY
THE EXTENT OF IT FOR THE EAST SIDE. MOST AREAS OVER THERE WILL
STAY DRY. HOWEVER, STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY SURFACE TO SOME
DEGREE EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT
WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS, BUT ESPECIALLY AT
PLACES LIKE SUMMER LAKE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
BUT THIS JUST MEANS TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL, NOT NECESSARILY
COOL FOR OCTOBER. ON MONDAY, WE`LL START TO WARM BACK UP AGAIN AS
HEIGHTS START TO RISE. AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
PACNW THROUGH NEXT WEEK, AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AGAIN ALONG
THE COAST. THIS WILL MEAN A RETURN TO WARM, DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR
ALL AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE COAST ITSELF
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL TROUGH. AT
THE VERY LEAST, THE CURRY COAST WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW DAYS OF WARM
WEATHER WITH OFFSHORE FLOW NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 500 AM PDT FRIDAY, 9 OCT 2015... THE FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL REACH COASTAL AREAS TODAY WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THERE BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASING WINDS TO THE EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ONTO THE COAST
WITH SOME WETTING RAINFALL EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE, PRIMARILY
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY. WETTING RAINS
ARE LESS LIKELY IN OTHER WEST SIDE LOCATIONS...AND VERY UNLIKELY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CRITICAL. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE LIKELY TO FALL
TO ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. SK
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
745 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY. RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN AND RETURN
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM...
A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS MOVING
THRU THE NWRN COS AT THIS TIME. SEE NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING LIKE THE
HRRR AND RAP SHOW. THEY ARE HANDLING THIS CONVECTION RATHER POORLY
AT THIS POINT. THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL PRETTY LOW FOR SUSTAINING
SHOWERS/STORMS. BUT WILL HANG WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND
CONTINUE TO PRESS THESE SHOWERS THROUGH ALL THE NRN MTNS INTO
SUNRISE. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS JUST PASSING THRU DETROIT.
TIMING IS RIGHT ON FOR THE FRONT...BUT THE SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED/SIGNIFICANT THAN EARLIER THINKING. HAVE UPPED POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS AND ADJUSTED THEM FOR A BRIEF BREAK AFTER
THESE SHOWERS MOVE EAST OUT OF WARREN/MCKEAN COS.
PREV...
FIRST OF A FEW LINES OF SCT SHOWERS NOW STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN TIER. PRECIP VERY LIGHT AND MOVING QUICKLY WILL KEEP POPS
LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BUT RAMP THEM UP AFTER SUNRISE. COLD
FRONT NOT QUITE THRU SAGINAW BAY AND THE PRECIP IS MAINLY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AT THIS POINT. TIMING IS PRETTY SOLID
AMONGST ALL GUIDANCE WITH COLD FRONT PASSING THRU BFD BY 15Z AND
LNS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. TIMING OF BEST FORCING/LIFT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS 40+
KTS DURING THAT TIME /PEAK HEATING/...BUT MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS BELOW 60F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SPC HAS
PLACED THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK...AND IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED EVER SO SLIGHTLY FROM THE DY2 OUTLOOK. WILL CARRY THE
CATG SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA BEFORE FROPA. QPF IS LOW PROBABLY DUE
TO THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS. A FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS OR
BOWS MAY APPEAR WITH ONLY A LITTLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT. WHILE NWRN
SITES WILL CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY AFTER FROPA...LOW CLOUDS RETURN
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRONT AND ASSOCD PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. BUT A
FEW SHRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE LAURELS AND NRN TIER EARLY
TONIGHT. CAA OF 10C AT 8H OCCURS BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE NRN TIER WITH +1C ALONG THE NY BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. 8H
TEMPS DO REBOUND A FEW BY MORNING...BUT A COOL N WIND WILL TRY TO
HINDER HEATING SAT MORNING. MINS TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT 40-45F. LNS PROBABLY WON/T TOUCH THE
40S. SFC RIDGE AXIS GETS OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY ON SAT...SO THE WIND DIES OFF AND CLOUDS WILL BE SCT/BKN
AT WORST. THE HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO THE M50S-M60S
WHICH ARE 3-4 DEGS BELOW NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER
PATTERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE MIDWEEK.
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST/SW SUN INTO MON...BRINGING WARMER
AIR BACK IN WITH READINGS BY MON BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S.
AFTER THAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL DEPICT
A LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARD AND ERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE PAC NW HAS TRENDED SHARPER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE OH
VALLEY BY 00Z TUESDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT PLACES PEAK RAIN SHOWER RISK IN THE LATE DAY 5/MON INTO DAY
6/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. MSTR LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE EAST COAST DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD THE FRONT SPEED UP MORE. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER NW FLOW DOMINATES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...OVR WESTERN LK ERIE AT 11Z...WILL PUSH SE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TODAY. A MOIST SW FLOW PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL
ASCEND THE NW MTNS...LIKELY PRODUCING IFR CIGS AT KBFD THROUGH
MIDDAY. ELSEWHERE...EFFECTS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO PERHAPS A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH A PASSING SHRA/TSRA.
MDL TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC OF A SHRA/TSRA WILL
OCCUR ARND 15Z AT KBFD...ARND 18Z AT KJST/KAOO/KUNV...ARND 19Z AT
KIPT AND ARND 20Z-21Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...AS DRIER NW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS COULD CAUSE MVFR
CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT KBFD/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
555 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY. RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN AND RETURN
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM...
A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS MOVING
THRU THE NWRN COS AT THIS TIME. SEE NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING LIKE THE
HRRR AND RAP SHOW. THEY ARE HANDLING THIS CONVECTION RATHER POORLY
AT THIS POINT. THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL PRETTY LOW FOR SUSTAINING
SHOWERS/STORMS. BUT WILL HANG WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND
CONTINUE TO PRESS THESE SHOWERS THROUGH ALL THE NRN MTNS INTO
SUNRISE. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS JUST PASSING THRU DETROIT.
TIMING IS RIGHT ON FOR THE FRONT...BUT THE SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED/SIGNIFICANT THAN EARLIER THINKING. HAVE UPPED POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS AND ADJUSTED THEM FOR A BRIEF BREAK AFTER
THESE SHOWERS MOVE EAST OUT OF WARREN/MCKEAN COS.
PREV...
FIRST OF A FEW LINES OF SCT SHOWERS NOW STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN TIER. PRECIP VERY LIGHT AND MOVING QUICKLY WILL KEEP POPS
LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BUT RAMP THEM UP AFTER SUNRISE. COLD
FRONT NOT QUITE THRU SAGINAW BAY AND THE PRECIP IS MAINLY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AT THIS POINT. TIMING IS PRETTY SOLID
AMONGST ALL GUIDANCE WITH COLD FRONT PASSING THRU BFD BY 15Z AND
LNS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. TIMING OF BEST FORCING/LIFT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS 40+
KTS DURING THAT TIME /PEAK HEATING/...BUT MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS BELOW 60F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SPC HAS
PLACED THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK...AND IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED EVER SO SLIGHTLY FROM THE DY2 OUTLOOK. WILL CARRY THE
CATG SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA BEFORE FROPA. QPF IS LOW PROBABLY DUE
TO THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS. A FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS OR
BOWS MAY APPEAR WITH ONLY A LITTLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT. WHILE NWRN
SITES WILL CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY AFTER FROPA...LOW CLOUDS RETURN
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRONT AND ASSOCD PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. BUT A
FEW SHRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE LAURELS AND NRN TIER EARLY
TONIGHT. CAA OF 10C AT 8H OCCURS BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE NRN TIER WITH +1C ALONG THE NY BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. 8H
TEMPS DO REBOUND A FEW BY MORNING...BUT A COOL N WIND WILL TRY TO
HINDER HEATING SAT MORNING. MINS TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT 40-45F. LNS PROBABLY WON/T TOUCH THE
40S. SFC RIDGE AXIS GETS OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY ON SAT...SO THE WIND DIES OFF AND CLOUDS WILL BE SCT/BKN
AT WORST. THE HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO THE M50S-M60S
WHICH ARE 3-4 DEGS BELOW NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER
PATTERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE MIDWEEK.
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST/SW SUN INTO MON...BRINGING WARMER
AIR BACK IN WITH READINGS BY MON BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S.
AFTER THAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL DEPICT
A LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARD AND ERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE PAC NW HAS TRENDED SHARPER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE OH
VALLEY BY 00Z TUESDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT PLACES PEAK RAIN SHOWER RISK IN THE LATE DAY 5/MON INTO DAY
6/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. MSTR LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE EAST COAST DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD THE FRONT SPEED UP MORE. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER NW FLOW DOMINATES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL OF LOW
CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE ARND
DAWN. DWPT DEPRESSIONS AT KMDT/KLNS ARE VERY LOW AT 09Z AND CONDS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING THRU
DAWN...LIKELY LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF FOG. LATEST LAMP
GUIDANCE...IN ADDITION TO HRRR AND DOWNSCALED NAM...SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KMDT/KLNS ARND
DAWN. FURTHER WEST...A SW BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF
FOG. HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A MVFR CIG IS LIKELY AT
KBFD BY ARND DAWN...CAUSED BY AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW
ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW PA.
ANY EARLY FOG/LOW CIGS ACROSS EASTERN PA SHOULD LIFT BY ARND 13Z-14Z.
FOCUS THEN WILL SHIFT TOWARD A COLD FRONT PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
STATE. MDL DATA IMPLIES A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KBFD BTWN 15Z-18Z...CAUSED BY EITHER FRONTAL SHOWERS OR LOWERING
CIGS ASSOC WITH MOIST SW FLOW. ELSEWHERE...EFFECTS OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PERHAPS A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION
WITH A PASSING SHRA/TSRA. MDL TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THE BEST
CHC OF A SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ARND 15Z AT KBFD...ARND 18Z AT
KJST/KAOO/KUNV...ARND 19Z AT KIPT AND ARND 20Z-21Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...AS DRIER NW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS COULD CAUSE MVFR
CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT KBFD/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
452 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY. RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN AND RETURN
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM...
A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS MOVING
THRU THE NWRN COS AT THIS TIME. SEE NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING LIKE THE
HRRR AND RAP SHOW. THEY ARE HANDLING THIS CONVECTION RATHER POORLY
AT THIS POINT. THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL PRETTY LOW FOR SUSTAINING
SHOWERS/STORMS. BUT WILL HANG WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND
CONTINUE TO PRESS THESE SHOWERS THROUGH ALL THE NRN MTNS INTO
SUNRISE. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS JUST PASSING THRU DETROIT.
TIMING IS RIGHT ON FOR THE FRONT...BUT THE SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED/SIGNIFICANT THAN EARLIER THINKING. HAVE UPPED POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS AND ADJUSTED THEM FOR A BRIEF BREAK AFTER
THESE SHOWERS MOVE EAST OUT OF WARREN/MCKEAN COS.
PREV...
FIRST OF A FEW LINES OF SCT SHOWERS NOW STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN TIER. PRECIP VERY LIGHT AND MOVING QUICKLY WILL KEEP POPS
LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BUT RAMP THEM UP AFTER SUNRISE. COLD
FRONT NOT QUITE THRU SAGINAW BAY AND THE PRECIP IS MAINLY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AT THIS POINT. TIMING IS PRETTY SOLID
AMONGST ALL GUIDANCE WITH COLD FRONT PASSING THRU BFD BY 15Z AND
LNS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. TIMING OF BEST FORCING/LIFT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS 40+
KTS DURING THAT TIME /PEAK HEATING/...BUT MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS BELOW 60F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SPC HAS
PLACED THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK...AND IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED EVER SO SLIGHTLY FROM THE DY2 OUTLOOK. WILL CARRY THE
CATG SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA BEFORE FROPA. QPF IS LOW PROBABLY DUE
TO THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS. A FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS OR
BOWS MAY APPEAR WITH ONLY A LITTLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT. WHILE NWRN
SITES WILL CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY AFTER FROPA...LOW CLOUDS RETURN
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRONT AND ASSOCD PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. BUT A
FEW SHRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE LAURELS AND NRN TIER EARLY
TONIGHT. CAA OF 10C AT 8H OCCURS BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE NRN TIER WITH +1C ALONG THE NY BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. 8H
TEMPS DO REBOUND A FEW BY MORNING...BUT A COOL N WIND WILL TRY TO
HINDER HEATING SAT MORNING. MINS TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT 40-45F. LNS PROBABLY WON/T TOUCH THE
40S. SFC RIDGE AXIS GETS OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY ON SAT...SO THE WIND DIES OFF AND CLOUDS WILL BE SCT/BKN
AT WORST. THE HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO THE M50S-M60S
WHICH ARE 3-4 DEGS BELOW NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER
PATTERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE MIDWEEK.
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST/SW SUN INTO MON...BRINGING WARMER
AIR BACK IN WITH READINGS BY MON BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S.
AFTER THAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL DEPICT
A LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARD AND ERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE PAC NW HAS TRENDED SHARPER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE OH
VALLEY BY 00Z TUESDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT PLACES PEAK RAIN SHOWER RISK IN THE LATE DAY 5/MON INTO DAY
6/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. MSTR LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE EAST COAST DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD THE FRONT SPEED UP MORE. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER NW FLOW DOMINATES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL OF LOW
CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE ARND
DAWN. DWPT DEPRESSIONS AT KMDT/KLNS ARE DOWN TO 3F AT 05Z AND
CONDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING THRU
DAWN...LIKELY LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF FOG. LATEST LAMP
GUIDANCE...IN ADDITION TO HRRR AND DOWNSCALED NAM...SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KIPT/KMDT/KLNS ARND DAWN.
FURTHER WEST...A SW BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF FOG.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A MVFR CIG IS LIKELY AT KBFD
BY ARND DAWN...CAUSED BY AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW ASCENDING
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW PA.
ANY EARLY FOG/LOW CIGS ACROSS EASTERN PA SHOULD LIFT BY ARND 13Z-14Z.
FOCUS THEN WILL SHIFT TOWARD A COLD FRONT PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
STATE. MDL DATA IMPLIES A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KBFD BTWN 15Z-18Z...CAUSED BY EITHER FRONTAL SHOWERS OR LOWERING
CIGS ASSOC WITH MOIST SW FLOW. ELSEWHERE...EFFECTS OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PERHAPS A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION
WITH A PASSING SHRA/TSRA. MDL TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THE BEST
CHC OF A SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ARND 15Z AT KBFD...ARND 18Z AT
KJST/KAOO/KUNV...ARND 19Z AT KIPT AND ARND 20Z-21Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...AS DRIER NW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS COULD CAUSE MVFR
CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT KBFD/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
250 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY. RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN AND RETURN
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FIRST OF A FEW LINES OF SCT SHOWERS NOW STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN TIER. PRECIP VERY LIGHT AND MOVING QUICKLY WILL KEEP POPS
LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BUT RAMP THEM UP AFTER SUNRISE. COLD
FRONT NOT QUITE THRU SAGINAW BAY AND THE PRECIP IS MAINLY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AT THIS POINT. TIMING IS PRETTY SOLID
AMONGST ALL GUIDANCE WITH COLD FRONT PASSING THRU BFD BY 15Z AND
LNS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. TIMING OF BEST FORCING/LIFT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS 40+
KTS DURING THAT TIME /PEAK HEATING/...BUT MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS BELOW 60F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SPC HAS
PLACED THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK...AND IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED EVER SO SLIGHTLY FROM THE DY2 OUTLOOK. WILL CARRY THE
CATG SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA BEFORE FROPA. QPF IS LOW PROBABLY DUE
TO THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS. A FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS OR
BOWS MAY APPEAR WITH ONLY A LITTLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT. WHILE NWRN
SITES WILL CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY AFTER FROPA...LOW CLOUDS RETURN
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRONT AND ASSOCD PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. BUT A
FEW SHRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE LAURELS AND NRN TIER EARLY
TONIGHT. CAA OF 10C AT 8H OCCURS BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE NRN TIER WITH +1C ALONG THE NY BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. 8H
TEMPS DO REBOUND A FEW BY MORNING...BUT A COOL N WIND WILL TRY TO
HINDER HEATING SAT MORNING. MINS TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT 40-45F. LNS PROBABLY WON/T TOUCH THE
40S. SFC RIDGE AXIS GETS OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY ON SAT...SO THE WIND DIES OFF AND CLOUDS WILL BE SCT/BKN
AT WORST. THE HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO THE M50S-M60S
WHICH ARE 3-4 DEGS BELOW NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER
PATTERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE MIDWEEK.
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST/SW SUN INTO MON...BRINGING WARMER
AIR BACK IN WITH READINGS BY MON BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S.
AFTER THAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL DEPICT
A LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARD AND ERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE PAC NW HAS TRENDED SHARPER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE OH
VALLEY BY 00Z TUESDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT PLACES PEAK RAIN SHOWER RISK IN THE LATE DAY 5/MON INTO DAY
6/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. MSTR LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE EAST COAST DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD THE FRONT SPEED UP MORE. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER NW FLOW DOMINATES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL OF LOW
CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE ARND
DAWN. DWPT DEPRESSIONS AT KMDT/KLNS ARE DOWN TO 3F AT 05Z AND
CONDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING THRU
DAWN...LIKELY LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF FOG. LATEST LAMP
GUIDANCE...IN ADDITION TO HRRR AND DOWNSCALED NAM...SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KIPT/KMDT/KLNS ARND DAWN.
FURTHER WEST...A SW BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF FOG.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A MVFR CIG IS LIKELY AT KBFD
BY ARND DAWN...CAUSED BY AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW ASCENDING
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW PA.
ANY EARLY FOG/LOW CIGS ACROSS EASTERN PA SHOULD LIFT BY ARND 13Z-14Z.
FOCUS THEN WILL SHIFT TOWARD A COLD FRONT PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
STATE. MDL DATA IMPLIES A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KBFD BTWN 15Z-18Z...CAUSED BY EITHER FRONTAL SHOWERS OR LOWERING
CIGS ASSOC WITH MOIST SW FLOW. ELSEWHERE...EFFECTS OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PERHAPS A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION
WITH A PASSING SHRA/TSRA. MDL TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THE BEST
CHC OF A SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ARND 15Z AT KBFD...ARND 18Z AT
KJST/KAOO/KUNV...ARND 19Z AT KIPT AND ARND 20Z-21Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...AS DRIER NW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS COULD CAUSE MVFR
CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT KBFD/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
246 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY. RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN AND RETURN
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FIRST OF A FEW LINES OF SCT SHOWERS NOW STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN TIER. PRECIP VERY LIGHT AND MOVING QUICKLY WILL KEEP POPS
LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BUT RAMP THEM UP AFTER SUNRISE. COLD
FRONT NOT QUITE THRU SAGINAW BAY AND THE PRECIP IS MAINLY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AT THIS POINT. TIMING IS PRETTY SOLID
AMONGST ALL GUIDANCE WITH COLD FRONT PASSING THRU BFD BY 15Z AND
LNS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. TIMING OF BEST FORCING/LIFT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS 40+
KTS DURING THAT TIME /PEAK HEATING/...BUT MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS BELOW 60F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SPC HAS
PLACED THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO MDT RISK...AND IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED EVER SO SLIGHTLY FROM THE DY2 OUTLOOK. WILL CARRY THE
CATG SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA BEFORE FROPA. QPF IS LOW PROBABLY DUE
TO THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS. A FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS OR
BOWS MAY APPEAR WITH ONLY A LITTLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT. WHILE
NWRN SITES WILL CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY AFTER FROPA...LOW CLOUDS RETURN
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRONT AND ASSOCD PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. BUT A
FEW SHRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE LAURELS AND NRN TIER EARLY
TONIGHT. CAA OF 10C AT 8H OCCURS BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE NRN TIER WITH +1C ALONG THE NY BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. 8H
TEMPS DO REBOUND A FEW BY MORNING...BUT A COOL N WIND WILL TRY TO
HINDER HEATING SAT MORNING. MINS TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT 40-45F. LNS PROBABLY WON/T TOUCH THE
40S. SFC RIDGE AXIS GETS OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY ON SAT...SO THE WIND DIES OFF AND CLOUDS WILL BE SCT/BKN
AT WORST. THE HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO THE M50S-M60S
WHICH ARE 3-4 DEGS BELOW NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER
PATTERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE MIDWEEK.
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST/SW SUN INTO MON...BRINGING WARMER
AIR BACK IN WITH READINGS BY MON BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S.
AFTER THAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL DEPICT
A LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARD AND ERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE PAC NW HAS TRENDED SHARPER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE OH
VALLEY BY 00Z TUESDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT PLACES PEAK RAIN SHOWER RISK IN THE LATE DAY 5/MON INTO DAY
6/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. MSTR LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE EAST COAST DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD THE FRONT SPEED UP MORE. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER NW FLOW DOMINATES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL OF LOW
CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE ARND
DAWN. DWPT DEPRESSIONS AT KMDT/KLNS ARE DOWN TO 3F AT 05Z AND
CONDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING THRU
DAWN...LIKELY LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF FOG. LATEST LAMP
GUIDANCE...IN ADDITION TO HRRR AND DOWNSCALED NAM...SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KIPT/KMDT/KLNS ARND DAWN.
FURTHER WEST...A SW BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF FOG.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A MVFR CIG IS LIKELY AT KBFD
BY ARND DAWN...CAUSED BY AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW ASCENDING
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW PA.
ANY EARLY FOG/LOW CIGS ACROSS EASTERN PA SHOULD LIFT BY ARND 13Z-14Z.
FOCUS THEN WILL SHIFT TOWARD A COLD FRONT PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
STATE. MDL DATA IMPLIES A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KBFD BTWN 15Z-18Z...CAUSED BY EITHER FRONTAL SHOWERS OR LOWERING
CIGS ASSOC WITH MOIST SW FLOW. ELSEWHERE...EFFECTS OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PERHAPS A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION
WITH A PASSING SHRA/TSRA. MDL TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THE BEST
CHC OF A SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ARND 15Z AT KBFD...ARND 18Z AT
KJST/KAOO/KUNV...ARND 19Z AT KIPT AND ARND 20Z-21Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...AS DRIER NW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS COULD CAUSE MVFR
CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT KBFD/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
209 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON FRIDAY. RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN AND RETURN
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER WESTERN PA AS BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREAD EASTWARD AHEAD OF UPPER
TROF DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GLAKS THIS
EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING
AS SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND ROBUST WAA PATTERN SPREADS INTO
THE AREA...AND SFC LOW/WARM FRONT MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES.
SHOWERS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO NW PA AFTER 06Z AND SPREAD
SEWARD BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW
WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON
FRIDAY. FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FORCING FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. ANOMALOUS
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MOISTURE FLUX VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
HIGH CONFIDENCE/PROBABILITY IN PCPN...HOWEVER RAFL/QPF AMTS APPEAR
TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONTAL
BAND AND A N-S SPLIT IN THE BEST FORCING OVER PA.
SFC DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
/ML CAPES OF 500-1000 J PER KG/ WITH ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS PSBL
ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE MID AND LWR SUSQ VLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...THE
AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS. AS A RESULT...SPC
HAS MAINTAINED EXPANDED A MARGINAL RISK AREA ACROSS ALL OF THE LWR
SUSQ VALLEY.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT CONDS
TO DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER
PATTERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE MIDWEEK.
COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING THE REGION TO THE SE LATE FRI
AFT/EARLY FRI EVE...TAKING PRECIP ALONG WITH IT. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FOR SAT - BRINGING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD.
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST/SW SUN INTO MON...BRINGING WARMER
AIR BACK IN WITH READINGS BY MON BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S.
AFTER THAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL DEPICT
A LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARD AND ERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE PAC NW HAS TRENDED SHARPER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE OH
VALLEY BY 00Z TUESDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT PLACES PEAK RAIN SHOWER RISK IN THE LATE DAY 5/MON INTO DAY
6/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. MSTR LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE EAST COAST DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD THE FRONT SPEED UP MORE. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER NW FLOW DOMINATES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL OF LOW
CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE ARND
DAWN. DWPT DEPRESSIONS AT KMDT/KLNS ARE DOWN TO 3F AT 05Z AND
CONDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING THRU
DAWN...LIKELY LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF FOG. LATEST LAMP
GUIDANCE...IN ADDITION TO HRRR AND DOWNSCALED NAM...SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KIPT/KMDT/KLNS ARND DAWN.
FURTHER WEST...A SW BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF FOG.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A MVFR CIG IS LIKELY AT KBFD
BY ARND DAWN...CAUSED BY AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW ASCENDING
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW PA.
ANY EARLY FOG/LOW CIGS ACROSS EASTERN PA SHOULD LIFT BY ARND 13Z-14Z.
FOCUS THEN WILL SHIFT TOWARD A COLD FRONT PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
STATE. MDL DATA IMPLIES A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KBFD BTWN 15Z-18Z...CAUSED BY EITHER FRONTAL SHOWERS OR LOWERING
CIGS ASSOC WITH MOIST SW FLOW. ELSEWHERE...EFFECTS OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PERHAPS A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION
WITH A PASSING SHRA/TSRA. MDL TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THE BEST
CHC OF A SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ARND 15Z AT KBFD...ARND 18Z AT
KJST/KAOO/KUNV...ARND 19Z AT KIPT AND ARND 20Z-21Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...AS DRIER NW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS COULD CAUSE MVFR
CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT KBFD/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE WEATHER GRIDS A BIT TO INCREASE THE
EXPECTED FOG COVERAGE, WHICH MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES TONIGHT. THE
NARRE AND MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM
VICTORIA CROSSROADS DOWN TO KINGSVILLE FORMING SPREADING TOWARDS
THE WEST-NORTHWEST INLAND A BIT MORE. STILL UNSURE HOW WIDESPREAD
THE DENSE FOG, IF IT FORMS, WOULD BE SO WE INCLUDED IT IN THE HWO
FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATON CYCLE.
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES...RADIATIONAL FOG EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS BY 08-09Z SUNDAY. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE PREVALENT FROM ALICE
TO BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR AFTER 14Z
SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT RADIATION COOLING WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
FORMATION OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT STILL
EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER INLAND AREAS LATE. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. CONVERGENCE IN THE VCNTY OF THE BNDRY AND POOLING MSTR
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISO-SCT CONVECTION - ESPLY
DURING DAYTIME HEATING TUE. FRONT THEN LOOKS TO WASH OUT TUE NGT
INTO WED WITH DEEP RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF WARMER MEX AND COOLER HPC TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OR HIGHER EACH
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD - UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR MIDDLE OCTOBER TO BE
SURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 69 92 71 91 74 / 0 0 0 10 20
VICTORIA 64 92 68 90 70 / 0 0 0 10 20
LAREDO 71 96 72 95 73 / 0 0 0 10 10
ALICE 66 95 68 94 71 / 0 0 0 10 20
ROCKPORT 71 90 74 86 76 / 0 0 0 10 20
COTULLA 68 95 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 67 93 69 93 73 / 0 0 0 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 73 90 74 86 77 / 0 0 0 10 20
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GH/77...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
314 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NO SHORT TERM IMPACTS EXPECTED AS DRIER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING TO
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARDS THE BAJA OF MEXICO. A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
WAS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THAT WILL USER IN A DRIER
AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY/FRONT IS NOTED NORTH OF THE
REGION ALONG A DALLAS TO MIDLAND LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK DUE TO TO HIGHER CLOUDS
FROM THE PREVIOUS COMPLEX. HAVE PLACED A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH 7PM FOR THIS ACTIVITY. SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SHOWERS TO DRIZZLE ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
BUT NO TRUE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE LAST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AND BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS FALLING
TO 1.3-1.5". THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
READINGS WILL BE NEAR 10F OVER THE TYPICAL VALUES THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MAX HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AREA WIDE. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SOURCES OF LIFT OR INSTABILITY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY
DESPITE BEING BRUSHED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING
SOME RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK...MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A DEEPER
ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL AID A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARDS AND THROUGH
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN NEAR LOCK STEP
WITH EACH OTHER INDICATING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS EARLIER OR LATER COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF TSTORM STRENGTH. AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER...AVAILABLE THERMODYNAMICS WOULD SUPPORT SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT OVERALL SET UP
WOULD NOT FAVOR A FLOODING OR SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME. HAVE PLACED
20-30% TSTORM CHANCES AND WILL MONITOR TIMING/PARAMETER TRENDS.
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S-30S WHICH
WOULD DROP THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL AS MORNING
LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS COULD DROP INTO THE LOW 50S
FOR NORTH HALF AND INTO THE HILL COUNTRY THOSE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S. PWATS WILL DROP TO THE LOWEST THEY HAVE BEEN THIS FALL
SEASON WITH READINGS BELOW 0.3" IN THE NORTH. THIS LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NIL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 89 68 90 68 94 / 20 20 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 86 66 90 63 94 / 20 20 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 86 69 91 66 95 / 50 20 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 66 87 65 94 / 30 30 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 81 68 88 69 91 / 50 30 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 66 88 64 93 / 20 20 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 68 91 66 94 / 90 20 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 86 68 90 65 93 / 20 20 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 68 90 64 93 / 20 20 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 70 91 68 93 / 80 20 - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 71 92 68 95 / 90 20 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1239 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 18Z TAF PERIOD...
RAINFALL HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING BKN VFR
CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND SCATTER OUT. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE OUT AT KDRT
WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR ABOVE 2KFT BUT
MOSTLY VFR TO PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
UPDATE...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE DROPPED IN WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING COMPLEX OVER THE REGION. HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO DROPPED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR.
MAX HIGHS WERE TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER.
SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
DISCUSSION...THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS OVERNIGHT IS SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL AND
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT CONTINUES TO WANE. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER MAVERICK AND PORTIONS OF UVALDE AND ZAVALA
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WHERE FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY
A 20-30% CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE CURRENT OVER-WORKED
ATMOSPHERE AND INSTABILITY NOT LIKELY TO REGAIN A FOOT HOLD GREATER
THAN 1000 J/KG OUT WEST...FEEL ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND POINTS WEST OF 35
CORRIDOR.
MORE OF THE LONGER TERM FOR THE DRIER WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK IN THE
MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
UPDATE... /REVISED POPS SLIGHTLY IN FIRST 6 HOURS/
ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND CONTRACT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. POPS WERE REVISED TO REFLECT THE
IMPACT OF A COOL POOL OF AIR THAT HAS ENHANCED A N-S ORIENTED
CONVECTIVE LINE WHICH WILL REACH A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE PRIOR
FORECAST HAD. THUS LIKELY POPS ARE NOW ENTERED FOR THE WESTERN
PART OF THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA. RAPID STORM WEAKENING IS
FORECAST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS BY RAPID REFRESH MODELS. WITH
THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LEADING EDGE AT 10-12
KNOTS...THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO HIT A WALL OF STABILITY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES HIGHWAY 281 LATE THIS MORNING. 6 AM-9 AM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MAINLY 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE OVER THE STRONGER
PORTIONS OF THE COMPLEX.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED JUST EAST OF
DEL RIO AND ARE INCHING CLOSER TO THE SAN ANTONIO SITES. WILL
INCLUDE VCSH AT THESE SITES FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR STRATUS IS
IN PLACE AT KSAT AND SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN MCV THAT MOVED THROUGH EAGLE PASS NEWD TO NEAR UVA EARLY THIS
MORNING IS LOSING MOMENTUM. RECENT DPR VALUES OVER 6 INCHES
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSE RAINFALL EVENTS
OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35. THE INFLUENCE OF THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CONTRACT...WITH BROAD AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN INTO
THE AREA HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DIRECTION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND SHOULD HAVE A RAPID DECREASE IN INFLUENCE OVER THE
AREA. THE MCV IS BEST INITIALIZED BY HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
NSSL WRF AND HRRR ALBEIT A BIT TOO FAR WEST. THESE RUNS CURVE THE
MCV CLOCKWISE TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE TEETH OF THE 20-25 KT RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LLJ WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY. BY
DAYBREAK...MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL SHOW THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF
TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS THE MORE MODERATE RAINS
MAY HAVE ON SOAKED SOILS.
LATE IN THE DAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE DESPITE
A MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX. WHILE THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DOWNWARD TREND IN RAIN
CHANCES...WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SWELL OF HIGHER PWAT VALUES PULLED IN BY THE MCV AND
ASSOCIATED MODERATE RAIN AREA TO THE NORTH. STABILITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SPILLING IN. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE ANY RELIEF FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL START TO OCTOBER...AND
WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS SATURDAY THANKS TO THE DECREASE
IN CLOUDS OVER TODAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH THE WWD DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC...UPPER
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER TX WITH AN AXIS ALIGNED WITH GENERALLY
WITH THE RIO GRANDE OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW TO MID
90S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE THE AXIS REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE AREA. A SLIGHT WWD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE WILL COINCIDE
WITH A PROGRESSIVE POLAR TROUGH PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHT INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
TX MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME WEAK
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO RICHER MOISTURE TOWARD THE COAST.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SMOOTH AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH LEFT OVER
MUCH OF THE NRN US IN THE WAKE OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...WITH WEAK
RIDGING ANCHORED TO THE WEST OF TX KEEPING AN INFLUENCE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR EXPECTED...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMALS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY OFF THE HOT DAYS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 90 68 94 71 / 20 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 64 90 64 93 67 / 10 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 67 95 69 / 20 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 87 66 93 69 / 20 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 88 69 91 68 / 20 - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 89 65 93 69 / 20 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 91 67 93 67 / 20 - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 90 65 93 68 / 20 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 90 66 93 69 / 10 - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 90 69 93 70 / 20 - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 69 94 69 / 20 - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1154 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE DROPPED IN WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING COMPLEX OVER THE REGION. HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO DROPPED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR.
MAX HIGHS WERE TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER.
SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS OVERNIGHT IS SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL AND
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT CONTINUES TO WANE. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER MAVERICK AND PORTIONS OF UVALDE AND ZAVALA
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WHERE FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY
A 20-30% CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE CURRENT OVER-WORKED
ATMOSPHERE AND INSTABILITY NOT LIKELY TO REGAIN A FOOT HOLD GREATER
THAN 1000 J/KG OUT WEST...FEEL ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND POINTS WEST OF 35
CORRIDOR.
MORE OF THE LONGER TERM FOR THE DRIER WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK IN THE
MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
UPDATE... /REVISED POPS SLIGHTLY IN FIRST 6 HOURS/
ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND CONTRACT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. POPS WERE REVISED TO REFLECT THE
IMPACT OF A COOL POOL OF AIR THAT HAS ENHANCED A N-S ORIENTED
CONVECTIVE LINE WHICH WILL REACH A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE PRIOR
FORECAST HAD. THUS LIKELY POPS ARE NOW ENTERED FOR THE WESTERN
PART OF THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA. RAPID STORM WEAKENING IS
FORECAST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS BY RAPID REFRESH MODELS. WITH
THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LEADING EDGE AT 10-12
KNOTS...THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO HIT A WALL OF STABILITY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES HIGHWAY 281 LATE THIS MORNING. 6 AM-9 AM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MAINLY 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE OVER THE STRONGER
PORTIONS OF THE COMPLEX.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED JUST EAST OF
DEL RIO AND ARE INCHING CLOSER TO THE SAN ANTONIO SITES. WILL
INCLUDE VCSH AT THESE SITES FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR STRATUS IS
IN PLACE AT KSAT AND SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN MCV THAT MOVED THROUGH EAGLE PASS NEWD TO NEAR UVA EARLY THIS
MORNING IS LOSING MOMENTUM. RECENT DPR VALUES OVER 6 INCHES
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSE RAINFALL EVENTS
OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35. THE INFLUENCE OF THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CONTRACT...WITH BROAD AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN INTO
THE AREA HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DIRECTION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND SHOULD HAVE A RAPID DECREASE IN INFLUENCE OVER THE
AREA. THE MCV IS BEST INITIALIZED BY HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
NSSL WRF AND HRRR ALBEIT A BIT TOO FAR WEST. THESE RUNS CURVE THE
MCV CLOCKWISE TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE TEETH OF THE 20-25 KT RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LLJ WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY. BY
DAYBREAK...MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL SHOW THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF
TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS THE MORE MODERATE RAINS
MAY HAVE ON SOAKED SOILS.
LATE IN THE DAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE DESPITE
A MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX. WHILE THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DOWNWARD TREND IN RAIN
CHANCES...WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SWELL OF HIGHER PWAT VALUES PULLED IN BY THE MCV AND
ASSOCIATED MODERATE RAIN AREA TO THE NORTH. STABILITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SPILLING IN. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE ANY RELIEF FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL START TO OCTOBER...AND
WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS SATURDAY THANKS TO THE DECREASE
IN CLOUDS OVER TODAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH THE WWD DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC...UPPER
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER TX WITH AN AXIS ALIGNED WITH GENERALLY
WITH THE RIO GRANDE OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW TO MID
90S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE THE AXIS REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE AREA. A SLIGHT WWD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE WILL COINCIDE
WITH A PROGRESSIVE POLAR TROUGH PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHT INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
TX MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME WEAK
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO RICHER MOISTURE TOWARD THE COAST.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SMOOTH AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH LEFT OVER
MUCH OF THE NRN US IN THE WAKE OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...WITH WEAK
RIDGING ANCHORED TO THE WEST OF TX KEEPING AN INFLUENCE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR EXPECTED...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMALS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY OFF THE HOT DAYS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 67 90 68 94 / 20 20 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 64 90 64 93 / 20 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 86 68 92 67 95 / 50 20 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 64 87 66 93 / 30 20 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 69 88 69 91 / 50 20 - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 89 65 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 66 91 67 93 / 90 20 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 67 90 65 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 67 90 66 93 / 20 10 - 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 68 90 69 93 / 80 20 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 69 91 69 94 / 90 20 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE... /REVISED POPS SLIGHTLY IN FIRST 6 HOURS/
ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND CONTRACT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. POPS WERE REVISED TO REFLECT THE
IMPACT OF A COOL POOL OF AIR THAT HAS ENHANCED A N-S ORIENTED
CONVECTIVE LINE WHICH WILL REACH A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE PRIOR
FORECAST HAD. THUS LIKELY POPS ARE NOW ENTERED FOR THE WESTERN
PART OF THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA. RAPID STORM WEAKENING IS
FORECAST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS BY RAPID REFRESH MODELS. WITH
THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LEADING EDGE AT 10-12
KNOTS...THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO HIT A WALL OF STABILITY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES HIGHWAY 281 LATE THIS MORNING. 6 AM-9 AM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MAINLY 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE OVER THE STRONGER
PORTIONS OF THE COMPLEX.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED JUST EAST OF
DEL RIO AND ARE INCHING CLOSER TO THE SAN ANTONIO SITES. WILL
INCLUDE VCSH AT THESE SITES FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR STRATUS IS
IN PLACE AT KSAT AND SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN MCV THAT MOVED THROUGH EAGLE PASS NEWD TO NEAR UVA EARLY THIS
MORNING IS LOSING MOMENTUM. RECENT DPR VALUES OVER 6 INCHES
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSE RAINFALL EVENTS
OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35. THE INFLUENCE OF THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CONTRACT...WITH BROAD AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN INTO
THE AREA HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DIRECTION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND SHOULD HAVE A RAPID DECREASE IN INFLUENCE OVER THE
AREA. THE MCV IS BEST INITIALIZED BY HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
NSSL WRF AND HRRR ALBEIT A BIT TOO FAR WEST. THESE RUNS CURVE THE
MCV CLOCKWISE TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE TEETH OF THE 20-25 KT RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LLJ WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY. BY
DAYBREAK...MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL SHOW THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF
TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS THE MORE MODERATE RAINS
MAY HAVE ON SOAKED SOILS.
LATE IN THE DAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE DESPITE
A MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX. WHILE THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DOWNWARD TREND IN RAIN
CHANCES...WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SWELL OF HIGHER PWAT VALUES PULLED IN BY THE MCV AND
ASSOCIATED MODERATE RAIN AREA TO THE NORTH. STABILITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SPILLING IN. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE ANY RELIEF FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL START TO OCTOBER...AND
WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS SATURDAY THANKS TO THE DECREASE
IN CLOUDS OVER TODAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH THE WWD DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC...UPPER
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER TX WITH AN AXIS ALIGNED WITH GENERALLY
WITH THE RIO GRANDE OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW TO MID
90S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE THE AXIS REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE AREA. A SLIGHT WWD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE WILL COINCIDE
WITH A PROGRESSIVE POLAR TROUGH PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHT INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
TX MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME WEAK
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO RICHER MOISTURE TOWARD THE COAST.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SMOOTH AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH LEFT OVER
MUCH OF THE NRN US IN THE WAKE OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...WITH WEAK
RIDGING ANCHORED TO THE WEST OF TX KEEPING AN INFLUENCE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR EXPECTED...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMALS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY OFF THE HOT DAYS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 67 90 68 94 / 20 20 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 64 90 64 93 / 20 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 68 92 67 95 / 20 20 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 64 87 66 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 69 88 69 91 / 50 20 - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 89 65 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 66 91 67 93 / 70 20 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 67 90 65 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 67 90 66 93 / 20 10 - 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 68 90 69 93 / 40 20 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 69 91 69 94 / 40 20 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
621 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED JUST EAST OF
DEL RIO AND ARE INCHING CLOSER TO THE SAN ANTONIO SITES. WILL
INCLUDE VCSH AT THESE SITES FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR STRATUS IS
IN PLACE AT KSAT AND SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN MCV THAT MOVED THROUGH EAGLE PASS NEWD TO NEAR UVA EARLY THIS
MORNING IS LOSING MOMENTUM. RECENT DPR VALUES OVER 6 INCHES
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSE RAINFALL EVENTS
OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35. THE INFLUENCE OF THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CONTRACT...WITH BROAD AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN INTO
THE AREA HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DIRECTION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND SHOULD HAVE A RAPID DECREASE IN INFLUENCE OVER THE
AREA. THE MCV IS BEST INITIALIZED BY HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
NSSL WRF AND HRRR ALBEIT A BIT TOO FAR WEST. THESE RUNS CURVE THE
MCV CLOCKWISE TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE TEETH OF THE 20-25 KT RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LLJ WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY. BY
DAYBREAK...MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL SHOW THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF
TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS THE MORE MODERATE RAINS
MAY HAVE ON SOAKED SOILS.
LATE IN THE DAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE DESPITE
A MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX. WHILE THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DOWNWARD TREND IN RAIN
CHANCES...WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SWELL OF HIGHER PWAT VALUES PULLED IN BY THE MCV AND
ASSOCIATED MODERATE RAIN AREA TO THE NORTH. STABILITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SPILLING IN. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE ANY RELIEF FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL START TO OCTOBER...AND
WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS SATURDAY THANKS TO THE DECREASE
IN CLOUDS OVER TODAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH THE WWD DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC...UPPER
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER TX WITH AN AXIS ALIGNED WITH GENERALLY
WITH THE RIO GRANDE OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW TO MID
90S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE THE AXIS REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE AREA. A SLIGHT WWD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE WILL COINCIDE
WITH A PROGRESSIVE POLAR TROUGH PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHT INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
TX MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME WEAK
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO RICHER MOISTURE TOWARD THE COAST.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SMOOTH AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH LEFT OVER
MUCH OF THE NRN US IN THE WAKE OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...WITH WEAK
RIDGING ANCHORED TO THE WEST OF TX KEEPING AN INFLUENCE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR EXPECTED...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMALS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY OFF THE HOT DAYS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 67 90 68 94 / 20 20 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 64 90 64 93 / 20 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 68 92 67 95 / 20 20 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 64 87 66 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 69 88 69 91 / 70 20 - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 89 65 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 66 91 67 93 / 60 20 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 67 90 65 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 67 90 66 93 / 20 10 - 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 68 90 69 93 / 30 20 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 69 91 69 94 / 30 20 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
233 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN MCV THAT MOVED THROUGH EAGLE PASS NEWD TO NEAR UVA EARLY THIS
MORNING IS LOSING MOMENTUM. RECENT DPR VALUES OVER 6 INCHES
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSE RAINFALL EVENTS
OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35. THE INFLUENCE OF THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CONTRACT...WITH BROAD AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN INTO
THE AREA HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DIRECTION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND SHOULD HAVE A RAPID DECREASE IN INFLUENCE OVER THE
AREA. THE MCV IS BEST INITIALIZED BY HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
NSSL WRF AND HRRR ALBEIT A BIT TOO FAR WEST. THESE RUNS CURVE THE
MCV CLOCKWISE TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE TEETH OF THE 20-25 KT RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LLJ WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY. BY
DAYBREAK...MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL SHOW THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF
TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS THE MORE MODERATE RAINS
MAY HAVE ON SOAKED SOILS.
LATE IN THE DAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE DESPITE
A MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX. WHILE THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DOWNWARD TREND IN RAIN
CHANCES...WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SWELL OF HIGHER PWAT VALUES PULLED IN BY THE MCV AND
ASSOCIATED MODERATE RAIN AREA TO THE NORTH. STABILITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SPILLING IN. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE ANY RELIEF FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL START TO OCTOBER...AND
WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS SATURDAY THANKS TO THE DECREASE
IN CLOUDS OVER TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH THE WWD DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC...UPPER
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER TX WITH AN AXIS ALIGNED WITH GENERALLY
WITH THE RIO GRANDE OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW TO MID
90S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE THE AXIS REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE AREA. A SLIGHT WWD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE WILL COINCIDE
WITH A PROGRESSIVE POLAR TROUGH PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHT INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
TX MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME WEAK
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO RICHER MOISTURE TOWARD THE COAST.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SMOOTH AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH LEFT OVER
MUCH OF THE NRN US IN THE WAKE OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...WITH WEAK
RIDGING ANCHORED TO THE WEST OF TX KEEPING AN INFLUENCE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR EXPECTED...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMALS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY OFF THE HOT DAYS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 67 90 68 94 / 20 20 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 64 90 64 93 / 20 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 68 92 67 95 / 20 20 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 64 87 66 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 69 88 69 91 / 70 20 - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 89 65 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 66 91 67 93 / 60 20 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 67 90 65 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 67 90 66 93 / 20 10 - 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 68 90 69 93 / 30 20 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 69 91 69 94 / 30 20 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE/LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
102 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. CEILINGS WERE NEAR
2600FT AT KPIL TO NEAR 6500FT AT KAPY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS IN
GENERAL THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI MORNING AS
THE 500MB LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO CONTINUES TO BRING LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...LATEST BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...OVER MEXICO. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEAKEN DUE TO THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME
ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREA OVERNIGHT.
ALSO...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF VALUES BASED ON THE
UPDATED POPS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A MIX OF
MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WELL SOUTH OF THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AS FAR AS LOCATION AND TIMING. SOME CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PRODUCING A MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING. THE SLOWER MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOOD IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SONORA MX
CONTINUES A S/SE MOTION IN RESPONSE TO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL CA COAST. LOW IS PROVIDING
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG MUCH OF WEST TX. THIS WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
DUE TO OVC TO BKN DECK AROUND 8000 FEET...THE CONVECTION HAS NOT
MATERIALIZE AT THIS TIME BUT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOWS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL AID FOR MORE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY TONIGHT.
HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR THE 70S WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND.
FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT...AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER WEST TO SW THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS BUT STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE ARE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO 70S AND STILL SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL
ALLOW FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE LOW 70S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER WEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...ON SATURDAY WE WILL SEE
THE GRADUAL BUT CONTINUED RETREAT OF THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
TRANSLATES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. LONGER (GEOGRAPHIC) RANGE
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE LOW MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE BORDER
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FIRST PERIOD ON SATURDAY...RAIN
CHANCES WILL FADE UNTIL TUESDAY. BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER...ALTHOUGH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS BY
A FEW DEGREES AT NIGHT TO SEVERAL DEGREES OR MORE DURING THE DAY.
THE TAIL END OF A MIDWEST COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO NORTH TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD TRANSLATING UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL LOSE ENERGY BEFORE GETTING TO THE RGV. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS
WEEKEND...IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN TIER MID LEVEL PATTERN...
WILL SUPPORT A SECOND WEAK PLAINS COLD FRONT PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH
BY TUESDAY. FRONTOLYSIS IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WED...WITH A SHORT LIVED WINDOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THAT PERIOD.
THE GFS/UKMET/AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...LENDING ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES WILL DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT TUESDAY...BUT IN AREAS ONLY
WEAKLY RELATED TO THE CWA...AND HENCE SOME CONFIDENCE IS AFFORDED
TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE LONG TERM AS WELL.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE INLAND WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF WATERS. MORE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
INTO FRIDAY BUT WILL DIMINISH INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY AND LOWER TO LESS THAN 3 FEET
BY FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE UPSTREAM CUT OFF LOW
WILL BE RETREATING SOUTHWEST OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA ON SAT...
EASING WX CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE AREAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN BROAD AND FLAT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...SUPPORTING
LIGHT TO MDT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY FM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER SATURDAY WHEN SURFACE TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
61/55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1145 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT
SOUTH TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO WEDGE SOUTH
ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BRINGING DRIER AIR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1140 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO SEVERAL GRIDS THIS HOUR. LOW CLOUDS PERSIST
ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND BLUE RIDGE AND ACCORDING TO MOST
MODELS...LIKELY WILL THROUGH ABOUT 13/14Z. AM NOT SEEING ANY MORE
REPORTS OF DRIZZLE...SO WILL DROP THAT. LIGHT RAIN PERSISTS NEAR
THE NC CWA BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE OF UPPER LOW
ACROSS SC/NC. HRRR HANGS ON TO THIS ACROSS THIS REGION UNTIL ABOUT
09Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FROM SOUTHERN WILKES ACROSS TO
SOUTHERN CASWELL UNTIL ABOUT 07Z. LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
AND ALLEGHANYS RESULTING IN DENSE FOG AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WHICH HAS TRIGGERED SEVERAL VDOT I-77 ALARMS DURING
THE EVENING. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THIS THROUGH 13Z. THE
CLOUDS ARE ALSO HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE NEW RIVER AND
GREENBRIER VALLEY. LOOPING THROUGH THE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
IMAGE...THERE IS NO CLEAR EROSION OF THE EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUDS...SO WILL HOLD IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AS BEFORE...WITH
SOME CLEARING NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE T/TD/POP/SKY/WX GRIDS THROUGH 14Z AS A
RESULT OF ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS.
AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MESOSCALE MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT NORTHWEST
EDGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHIELD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NC ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZONE OF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT BACK INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN MOST COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS ROUGHLY FROM YADKIN TO CASWELL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING
AS A RESULT...WHICH ALSO MATCHES UP BETTER WITH GSP/RAH POP GRIDS.
ELSEWHERE...SOME -DZ MAY CONTINUE FOR A WHILE ALONG THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS WELL...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE
ENDED FURTHER NORTH. CLOUD COVER IS A MORE COMPLEX ISSUE AS LEE SIDE
TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ALLEGHANYS. THIS IS DELAYING DISSIPATION OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA...AND WHERE CLOUDS DON`T PERSIST...FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.
AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY...
DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS REMAINS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE PINNED BETWEEN THE LOW AND DRIER AIR SURGING DOWN ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. ALSO SEEING RATHER WIDESPREAD -RA/DRIZZLE PERSIST ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE EASTERLY FLOW HAS AIDED UPSLOPE. THUS EXPECTING
LIGHT PRECIP/FOG TO LINGER SOUTHERN SECTIONS INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DRYING/CLEARING OVER THE FAR NORTH/NW PER LATEST VISIBLE
PICS.
UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO BRING AN END TO MOST PRECIP THIS EVENING IF NOT
SOONER. HOWEVER FLOW REMAINS WEAK AND MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE WEDGE UNTIL SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM SO EXODUS OF CLOUDS
REMAINS IFFY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE DRY ADVECTION WITH
BEST COLUMN DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN SEEN OUT EAST...AND LESS WEST
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER EASTERLY CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK
LEFTOVER INVERTED TROUGH. STILL THINK THE NAM MAY BE TOO SLOW SO
TRENDED WITH MORE CLEARING FROM NE TO SW A BIT SOONER...LEAVING ONLY
THE FAR SOUTH/SW STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK. SOME ADDED FOG AND
PERHAPS SPOTTY DRIZZLE TO LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH VALLEYS LIKELY TO SEE
MORE DENSE FOG IF CLEARING OCCURS QUICKER. LOW TEMPS ALSO DEPENDENT
UPON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING AS COULD SEE A FEW UPPER 30S DESPITE
MOISTURE NW VALLEYS IF SKIES CLEAR SOONER...WHILE THINKING 40S OVERALL
PER LATEST MAV MOS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES IN FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH BETTER SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SOUTHEAST UPPER
LOW...AIDING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS SOUTH. THIS
ALONG WITH LIGHT MIXING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 85H TEMPS SUPPORTS UNIFORM
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN WARMING OF DRY AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SATURDAY...
A PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH...THEN PROGRESSIVELY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. GFS INDICATING THAT WHILE THIS LOW IS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...IT WILL DRAW IN DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. ON THE OTHER HAND...ECM IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST...INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHICH WOULD BRING POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN BANDS IN THE PIEDMONT. FAVORING THE DRIER GFS
SOLUTION...WILL RAISE DEW POINTS AND CLOUDS IN THE EAST TO
COMPROMISE WITH ECM.
MORE MOISTURE WILL EDGE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD ON THE NEXT FRONT TRACKING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE GFS...MOISTURE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RECOVER
MUCH FOR THE FRONT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE PASSAGE SHOULD OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
NAM/ECM PLACING HIGH POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LIGHT RAIN (UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH). BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALL
MODELS HAVE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING...BREEZY
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE
RISES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ADVISORY WINDS...BUT IT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO START CLEARING FALL FOLIAGE FROM TREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S WEST TO UPPER
70S EAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL
UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TUESDAY WITH A BETTER DEFINED HIGH
OVER THE OZARKS AND LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OZARKS AND WILL EDGE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITION PREVAILING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER FRONT TO
PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS WITH MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY FRONT...THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE ECM. SINCE THIS IS
DAY 7...WE WILL KEEP POPS LOW WITH 30S ACROSS THE WEST AND 20S IN
THE EAST.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE WARMER ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE RAIN FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW NORMAL WITH POSSIBLE HIGHS IN THE 60S.
WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. COME NEXT WEEKEND...WE MAY BE ENTERTAINING THE IDEA OF
MORNING FROST AS 85H 0C LINE IS FORECASTED TO DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...
FIRST 12 HOURS OF FORECAST ARE COMPLICATED BY UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE AND LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT. COMPLEX CLOUD PATTERN HAS
DEVELOPED AS A RESULT.
FIRST...WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION...LIGHT RAIN WILL DRIFT BACK
INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING ASSOCIATED
WITH DEFORMATION ZONE. AT THIS POINT...FEEL THAT THIS WILL REMAIN
AWAY FROM KDAN. LIGHT DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT THIS
WILL IMPACT TAF SITES.
COMPLICATED CLOUD PATTERN AS NOTED ABOVE. DRY AIR WORKING DOWN
THROUGH THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY HAS REACHED THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA AND CIGS HAVE BECOME VFR AT KLYH. THIS DRY AIR IS
ENCROACHING ON KDAN AND KROA AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...WEAK SFC WIND
CONVERGENCE DOWN THE ALLEGHANY FRONT RESULTING IN LOWERING CIGS TO
IFR-LIFR FROM KLWB-KBLF-KBCB. LOW-LEVEL/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FIELDS FROM THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK...SO HAVE ADVERTISED AS SUCH FOR THESE TAF SITES.
ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR. FEEL THAT ENOUGH
DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL WORK DOWN TOWARD KLYH TO AVOID
FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH UPPER LOW TOO CLOSE TO KDAN FOR SUCH...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS GROUND IS MOIST AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WIND DIRECTION.
AFTER 14Z SUN...ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY AND
REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON FOG...AND COULD
PERSIST IN THE IFR-LIFR CATEGORY AT KBLF/KLWB/KBCB MUCH OF THE
NIGHT IN AREAS WHERE CIGS DROP BELOW 005.
WINDS CHAOTIC AND LIGHT...TRENDING TOWARD THE NE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND W-NW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SPEEDS 5KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 14Z...THEN HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE LIMITED SUCH THAT THREAT OF SUB VFR IS MINIMAL. VFR
EXPECTED MIDWEEK BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/JM/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1026 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN ACROSS
THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED AS WELL HERE AT THE
OFFICE...WHICH WERE SHOWING UP AS LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ON
RADAR. KEPT MENTION OF THIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY SUNSET...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS TO WEAKEN AS WELL. 925 MB
TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
50S...THOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR CATEGORY BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS TAF SITES. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT BY
SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY MORNING...BECOMING GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HIGH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FEET BY
SUNSET. THUS...ENDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF WIND POINT AT
00Z SATURDAY...THE SAME TIME AS THE MARINE ZONES TO THE NORTH OF
THERE.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES TIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY OFFSHORE...SO HIGH WAVES SHOULD BE LIMITED TOWARD AND OVER
THE OPEN WATERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY IS TRENDING THE CLOUD COVER OUT OF HERE. EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOWER CLOUD DECK COVERS A
MAJORITY OF WISCONSIN...CLEARING NOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. SOME
BROKEN CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE UNDER A DECENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THAT CIRCULATION IS PART OF A LARGER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS THAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH WISCONSIN BY MID DAY. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH
NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD BRING RAPID CLEARING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. THE RAP IS MORE PESSIMISTIC IN THE LOW
LEVEL RH...KEEPING IT AROUND UNTIL MID AFTERNOON OR SO. THEREFORE
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO THE CLEARING TRENDS. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS
MORNING...BUT THAT GRADIENT RELAXES AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
LEANS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SO...THE AFTERNOON IS SHAPING
UP TO FEATURE DECREASING CLOUDS AND WIND WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
QUIET TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE USUAL LOW SPOTS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DRY WNW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL PUSH 925MB TEMPS UP TO AROUND 13C YIELDING MAX TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70. ELEVATED WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR SAT NIGHT... SO WENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY. 925MB TEMPS WILL JUMP TO 20C
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WE ARE LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. EXPECTING A LOW AROUND 60 SUN
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THAT STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT
COULD CLEAR SOUTHEAST WI AS EARLY AS 12Z/7 AM BUT MOST LIKELY AROUND
15Z/10 AM. THIS IS YOUR TYPICAL STRONG FALL SEASON FRONT... ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT AND JUST
BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE... DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE.
LOOK FOR GUSTY WNW WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES. THE MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. 925MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4C BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S INLAND FROM THE LAKE.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
WE WILL BE IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION SO WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY REAL COLD SNAP. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
60S ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE GENERATING LIGHT QPF HERE AND THERE WITH THE SHORTWAVES
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING DOES NOT AGREE BETWEEN THEM. THERE WILL AT LEAST
BE PERIODS OF CLOUDS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
AND THEN CLEAR OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND RELAXES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
MARINE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH INTO THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL ABOUT MID
AFTERNOON FOR THE SHEBOYGAN AREA AND THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING
TOWARD KENOSHA.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
249 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOWNSTREAM OF LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST
U.S. IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN FLOW GENERATING JUST
ENOUGH LIFT FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS FIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE THREE STATE AREA. BUT THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING
AND WITH STRATUS QUICKLY CLEARING IN SUBSIDENCE AND WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE DAY GOES ON...WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
FAST EVOLVING FLOW WILL MAKE FOR QUICK SURFACE RIDGE PASSAGE TONIGHT
AS SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN BY EARLY SATURDAY. GIVEN LIGHTER
WINDS THOUGH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO DAYBREAK...COULD SEE
DECOUPLING AND SOME PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN FAVORED COLD/BOG AREAS.
IMPACT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCAL SO NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
WHILE GENERAL STREAK OF NICE AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...HIGHER
AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL MAKE FOR INTERESTING CHANGES AND MINOR
CHALLENGES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE TRACKING FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS. AS THIS WAVE
ENTERS CONUS... MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE...BUT MUCH LARGER
IMPACT WILL BE NOTICED ON SUNDAY.
AS WAVE APPROACHES...RESPONSE WILL TIGHTEN GRADIENT WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SUNDAY. SHOULD
STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE GIVEN DRY AIRMASS SO LOTS TO FAVOR NEAR
RECORD WARMTH FOR MID OCTOBER...2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN TEMPERATURE
ANOMOLY DATA. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR SPECIFICS. WHILE AIRMASS
IS DRY...SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIMITED MIXING SUNDAY SHOULD
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW COVERS THOSE
THREATS MORE.
THIS SAME WAVE WILL DIVE INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING.
BETTER QG FORCING FAVORED NORTH OF AREA...BUT STRENGTH OF WAVE IN
GENERAL WILL BEAR WATCHING. AGAIN...DRY AIRMASS WILL TAKE SOME
FORCING TO SATURATE SO EXTENT OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ON LOWER SIDE...HIGHEST NORTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 94.
BIGGER STORY COULD BE WINDS BEHIND THIS WAVE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN TIMING...EXPECTED MIXING...AND DRY CONDITIONS AS IT RELATES TO
FIRE WEATHER. DETAILS FOR FIRE WEATHER THREAT LISTED BELOW. COULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIND RELATED HEADLINES AS WELL.
AFTER THAT...TRANQUIL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME LOOKS TO CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY PATTERN
CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
SOME DRIZZLE HAS FORMED THIS EVENING THAT BRIEFLY ALLOWS THE
CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR AND AT TIMES PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF A
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. APPEARS THIS IS TIED TO A WEAK SECONDARY
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE 09.00Z NAM AND
09.03Z RAP INDICATE THE LIFT FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT
DONE WITH SO DO NOT PLAN TO SHOW ANY DRIZZLE FOR EITHER SITE.
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS OVER
ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF MINNESOTA. THE NAM INDICATES THIS
MOISTURE FIELD TO HOLD ON FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING SO WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF KEEPING THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. ONCE THESE
SCATTER OUT...IT WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 80S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 12 TO 17 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE OF MORE CONCERN. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. A DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE
60S...SHOULD HELP LIMIT HOW LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GO.
HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 35 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE BUT THESE COULD DROP LOWER IF DEEPER MIXING OCCURS.
LOOKING AT THE WORST CASE...WE MAY SEE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO AROUND 27 PERCENT. CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE
AND DEEPER MIXING. MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS DETAILS SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
GIVEN WARM UP EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...HERE ARE THE NORMALS AND RECORDS
FOR LA CROSSE/LSE AND ROCHESTER/RST. ROCHESTER COULD BE IN RECORD
CATEGORY...
FOR OCTOBER 11TH...
LSE - RECORD 86 /1928/ NORMAL IS 62
RST - RECORD 82 /1934/ NORMAL IS 61
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP
CLIMATE...SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATCHING CLOUD TRENDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE/FOG FOR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS FORESEEN INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH VERY WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
RATHER CLASSIC OCTOBER "ROLLER COASTER" WEATHER IS SET TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND (AND BEYOND)...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MISS VALLEY ON FRIDAY IS REPLACED BY QUICKLY
BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IN ADVANCE OF QUITE THE SHARP
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES (OUR ISSUE BY
MONDAY). FARTHER DOWN LOW...LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL YIELD TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY WORKING THROUGH THE REGION INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE OUR LOCAL
AREA FALLS IN THE STRONGER RETURN FLOW AXIS BY SUNDAY...SETTING UP
POTENTIALLY QUITE THE REALLY WARM DAY.
FROM A WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...SHARP SUB-800MB COOLING BENEATH
RESIDUAL WARMTH ALOFT INTO TONIGHT IS AS CLASSIC A SETUP FOR STRATUS
EXPANSION AS ONE CAN GET...AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN LOWER
CLOUDS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS WE MAY GET INTO A DRIZZLE SITUATION ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA (CHIMNEY COUNTIES) GIVEN A PERIOD OF BETTER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION...WITH FORECAST RAOBS INDICATIVE
OF A SHARP MOISTURE INCREASE JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION COUPLED WITH
AMPLE SHEAR FOR DRIZZLE PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...SHARPER DRYING AND A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW 900MB DOES GIVE ME PAUSE AS THAT MAY
OFFSET THAT MOISTURE COMPONENT. IN EITHER CASE...WILL REALLY HAVE TO
WATCH CLOUD EVOLUTION ON FRIDAY AS HAVE A FEELING WE MAY DEAL WITH
PESKY STRATUS LONGER THAN GUIDANCE PROGS GIVEN THE EXPANSIVENESS OF
CURRENT UPSTREAM LOW CLOUD DECK. THAT OF COURSE MAY HAVE A BIG
INFLUENCE ON TEMPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGH RES 2-METER TEMPS
SUGGESTIVE WE MAY BE STUCK MORE IN THE 50S THAN LOWER 60S.
REGARDLESS...LOOKING LIKE A NICE WARMUP BY SATURDAY WITH INCREASED
MIXING INTO BUILDING THERMAL RIDGING FROM THE WEST. SHOULD BE A
BREEZY DAY WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND SAID MIXING...WITH GUSTS
PUSHING 30 KNOTS FOR THE HIGHER SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY STILL LOOKS TO BE WARMTH BY SUNDAY WITH A
CORRIDOR OF 20-23C 925MB TEMPS SLIDING OVERHEAD. MIXING DEPTH COULD
BE BETTER (IT IS NEARLY MID OCTOBER AFTER ALL)...SO WE WON`T GET TO
REALIZE ALL OF THAT POTENTIAL...BUT STILL FORESEE READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S...LIKELY JUST SHY OF CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE
11TH. FOR REFERENCE...THOSE ARE 86 FOR LA CROSSE (1928) AND 82 FOR
ROCHESTER (1930 AND 1934). OVERALL...SIMPLY A FANTASTIC STRETCH OF
FALL WEATHER!
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH A LITTLE SOMETHING FOR JUST ABOUT EVERY WEATHER FAN
(SORRY SNOW FANS...WE HAVE TO WAIT ON THAT STUFF FOR A WHILE YET).
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...SHARP UPPER TROUGHING LOOKS TO MAKE A RUN AT
US ON MONDAY...PUNTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
WAS QUITE SURPRISED THE PAST FEW DAYS AT THE EXTREME DRYNESS IN GFS
RUNS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AS STRONG UPWARD FORCING
SHOULD DRIVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE...
EVEN IN THE FACE OF LIMITED PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE RETURN. 08.00Z RUNS
OF THE GEM/ECMWF HAVE REVERSED THIS TREND SOMEWHAT BUT FEEL THAT AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS WARRANTED ALONG THE FRONT...
SIMPLY GIVEN SUCH A STRONG PUSH OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. IT
MAY ULTIMATELY BE THAT SOME LIGHTER PRECIP STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE CWA BUT REALLY TAKES OFF JUST TO OUR EAST AS THE UPPER
WAVE INTERCEPTS BETTER MOISTURE RETURN. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
AND QUITE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL TUESDAY ONWARD INTO
LATE WEEK...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
EACH DAY THOUGH WITH SEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHTS GIVEN RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
SOME DRIZZLE HAS FORMED THIS EVENING THAT BRIEFLY ALLOWS THE
CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR AND AT TIMES PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF A
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. APPEARS THIS IS TIED TO A WEAK SECONDARY
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE 09.00Z NAM AND
09.03Z RAP INDICATE THE LIFT FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT
DONE WITH SO DO NOT PLAN TO SHOW ANY DRIZZLE FOR EITHER SITE.
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS OVER
ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF MINNESOTA. THE NAM INDICATES THIS
MOISTURE FIELD TO HOLD ON FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING SO WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF KEEPING THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. ONCE THESE
SCATTER OUT...IT WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1116 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO ACROSS EH SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PASSING HIGH CLOUD COVER. AT THE
SURFACE...SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO WESTERLY FLOW AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS REMAINING IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA...WITH INCREASING WAA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRIMARY CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
(SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION) AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE DAILY RECORD HIGHS BROKEN
ACROSS OUR CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORS HIGHS 90-95F...WHICH COULD STILL PLACE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITHIN RANGE OF MONTHLY RECORDS. WARMER END OF GUIDANCE NOW
SUPPORTS HIGHS 95 (GOODLAND) TO 100F (MCCOOK) WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE
MONTHLY RECORDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA. WHILE MIXING SHOULD
BE VERY DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...TEMPS ALOFT SEEM TO SUPPORT
THE LOWER END OF THIS SPECTRUM AND MODEL CONSENSUS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST MONDAY, FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT EVEN THROUGH DYNAMICS FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH ARE NEARBY. THERE IS SIMPLY A LACK OF MOISTURE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS LACK OF MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY POPS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE NIL.
MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA. MIN
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY.
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA
WEST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S DURING THIS
TIME. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
RIDGING ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH FROM NEBRASKA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. IF TD TRENDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE ANY INDICATION WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EVEN WARMER. THE BIGGEST QUESTION REGARDING POTENTIAL
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE WINDS...WITH PEAK WINDS ALOFT STILL NORTH
OF OUR CWA. GFS HAS TRENDED HIGHER AND MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW OF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34. NAM AND OTHER
GUIDANCE ON THE OTHER HAND SUPPORTS WHAT WOULD BE INFREQUENT WIND
GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT PEAK WINDS IN THE MIXED
LAYER. THIS IS A VERY NARROW WINDOW IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA...AND 3HR OCCURRENCE IS IN DOUBT. I DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUANCE OF WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE DUE TO THE MARGINAL
WIND CONDITIONS.
MONDAY...DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET CRITERIA EXCEPT IN THE MORNING OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHEN RH VALUES WILL HIGHER. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES GO LOWER BUT SPEEDS THEN WILL EVEN BE
LOWER. LATER SHIFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER FOR
MONDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
RECORDS FOR SATURDAY
GOODLAND.....90 SET IN 1920
TRIBUNE......91 SET IN 1920
BURLINGTON...90 SET IN 1962
YUMA.........87 SET IN 1962
RECORDS FOR SUNDAY
GOODLAND.....93 SET IN 1996 (MONTHLY RECORD 96 IN 1926)
COLBY........90 SET IN 1955 (MONTHLY RECORD 97 IN 2000)
TRIBUNE......90 SET IN 1975 (MONTHLY RECORD 95 IN 2007)
HILL CITY....94 SET IN 1975
BURLINGTON...90 SET IN 1996 (MONTHLY RECORD 93 IN 2007)
YUMA.........86 SET IN 1989
MCCOOK.......90 SET IN 1962 (MONTHLY RECORD 98 IN 1928)
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
GOODLAND.....91
COLBY........94
TRIBUNE......92
HILL CITY....96
BURLINGTON...90
YUMA.........89
MCCOOK.......95
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024
FIRE WEATHER...DR/FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
350 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDGED
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST. THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A COOL AIR MASS INTO THE
STATE ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS. OUTSIDE OF
THE CLOUDED AREA...A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS TO NEAR 50 ON THE RIDGES. THE STRATUS IS ALSO HINDERING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE CLEAR AND CLOUDY
SKIES...THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE REST OF THE
CLOUD FREE AREA TO SEE FOG AND LOCALIZED DENSE VALLEY FOG INTO
DAWN. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS ARE
SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES AT MOST PLACES WITH THE WINDS LIGHT
THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A STRONGER
LOW/TROUGH BARRELING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH MOVES BODILY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS INFLUENCE SPREADING WELL SOUTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF ENERGY AND
LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FOGGY START FOR MOST IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY GIVING WAY TO A PLEASANT AND MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
SETTING UP ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES...THOUGH MAYBE
SLIGHTLY LARGER IN THE FAR EAST. FOR MONDAY...A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH EAST KENTUCKY DRIVEN BY THE QUICK MOVING
TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...
BUT ENOUGH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SHEAR COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AMID ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. WILL ADD THESE TO THE
FORECAST AND HWO.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN THIS
MORNING FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH
THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH MONDAY. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME RELATIVE
ELEVATION BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AMPING
UP THE RIDGE AND VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WAS A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE IN THE EXTENDED. THE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY MOISTURE STARVED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND THERE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA BEHIND EACH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE COOLEST WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON ITS EASTWARD TREK ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY...WITH VALUES
MAXING OUT IN THE LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FIRST INVASION OF
COLD AIR IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS A
PARTICULARLY SHARP TROUGH ALOFT CARVES A PATH OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES IN OUR NORMALLY COLDEST
VALLEYS MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO THE FIRST FROST OF THE YOUNG FALL SEASON. AFTER A
BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 ON
FRIDAY MORNING...AS A SECOND SHOT OF PARTICULARLY COOL AIR SPILLS
INTO THE AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER
TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE STARVED SURFACE FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY
AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER MID TO UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
COULD AGAIN LEAD TO FROST FORMATION IN OUR COLDEST VALLEYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
FOG IS STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-64. KEPT TAFS
RATHER PESSIMISTIC FOR THIS FORECAST AS ONLY THING TO HINDER FOG
DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS LAYER OFF THE
SFC. BROUGHT MOST SITES TO VLIFR IN THE DENSEST FOG AROUND DAWN.
ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...AROUND 14-15Z...CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
117 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOME
TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...THERE IS A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BTWN SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM THE OH
RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LO PRES CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA.
DESPITE STRONG WINDS UNDER THIS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NOT FAR ABOVE
THE SFC AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB...WHERE SW WINDS WERE AS HI AS
50 KTS AT 3K FT AGL...SHARP WAA IN THIS FLOW THAT IS FCST TO INCRS
H85 TEMPS ABOUT 10C THRU THE DAY BUT RELATIVELY SLOW NEAR SFC
WARMING LIMITED BY LOWERING SUN ANGLE AND INFLUX OF HI CLDS HAVE
KEPT LLVL STABILITY RELATIVELY HI AND LIMITED DEEP MIXING/SFC WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF HI CLD
SPILLING INTO THE AREA...VERY DRY AIR BTWN H85 AND ABOUT H5 AS SHOWN
ON THE UPSTREAM MPX AND GRB RAOBS HAS LIMITED THE COVERAGE OF ANY
LOWER CLD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WINDS AND TEMPS AS
RELATIVELY DRY SW FLOW WL PERSIST THRU SUN.
TNGT...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/RIBBON OF H925 SW WINDS UP TO 35-40 KTS
ARE FCST TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVNG BEFORE RELAXING OVERNGT AS SFC HI
PRES RDG TO THE SE SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. SO ANY
STRONGER WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG WHEN SFC TEMPS ARE HIER/
LLVL INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT GREATER WL DIMINISH THRU THE NGT WITH THE
SLACKENING GRADIENT/DIURNAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER WINDS WL
DIMINISH...SUSPECT THE SW FLOW WL REMAIN STEADY ENUF IN THE WARM
SECTOR TO LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING DESPITE A FORECAST GRADUAL DECREASE
IN HI LVL RH/HI CLDS. SO ALTHOUGH THE COOLER SPOTS WL SEE TEMPS DIP
INTO THE UPR 40S...READINGS WL HOLD IN THE 50S AT MANY PLACES.
EXPECT THE HIEST MIN TEMPS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
SUN...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIRMASS UNDER INCOMING UPR RDG
AXIS...EXPECT A MOSUNNY DAY WITH PERSISTENT LLVL SW FLOW. H85 TEMPS
ARE FCST TO PEAK AOA 20C...WHICH WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS RISING WELL
INTO THE 70S AT MOST PLACES AWAY FM MODERATION OFF LK MI. THE
DOWNSLOPE WARM SPOTS OVER THE W MAY SEE THE MERCURY REACH AOA 80.
THE RECORD HI MAX TEMP FOR THE MARQUETTE NWS IS 77 TMRW. SOME NEW
DAILY RECORDS MAY BE ESTABLISHED. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO BE
MUCH WEAKER TMRW...SO WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE UNDER 20 MPH OR SO
DESPITE THE HIER SFC TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
...STRONG WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...
ATTN SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE ON DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC
LOW TRACKING ACROSS MANITOBA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW
SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING MID CLOUDS BUT LOW-LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. A VERY WARM NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AND
MAYBE STAYING ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE 50S...SO THAT PUTS A LITTLE PERSPECTIVE ON
THESE TEMPERATURES. WRAPPED UP TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR AND
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS ARE OVER 200M BY
TIME TROUGH CROSSES ON MONDAY. SFC LOW DOWN TO 980MB AT 12Z MONDAY
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR LIFTS EAST TO JAMES BAY BY 00Z TUESDAY. COLD
CONVEYOR/WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AT H85-H7 ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION /H85 TEMPS AT 12Z MONDAY +8C OVER WESTERN U.P. FALLING
TO 0C BY 21Z/ SHOULD SUPPORT BLOSSOMING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS
FROM THE WEST TO NCNTRL CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. BIGGER STORY APPEARS
TO BE WINDS THOUGH.
INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE SFC
LOW /14MB GRADIENT LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR/ WILL COINCIDE WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
RAPIDLY INCREASING 950MB-850MB WINDS...REACHING 40-45 KTS IN THOSE
LAYERS 21Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD
PORTION OF THOSE WINDS MIXING TO SFC DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
NW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. SHORELINE AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND OVER ALGER
AND LUCE COUNTIES LIKELY WILL NEED WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. DUE TO THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE
THINK STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND OVER THE CWA.
STRONGER WINDS INLAND WOULD BE MONDAY EVENING DURING PEAK OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION. WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER
MUCH OF EAST CWA WITH LESS INTERRUPTION OF WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW LIFTING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND WITH
WEAK SFC RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SERIES OF TROUGHS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE OVER FAR WESTERN CONUS.
WEAKER SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT BY THE END
OF THE WEEK THERE IS HINT OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH AND
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT TIMING OF
COLDEST AIR ARRIVING IS STILL IN DEBATE WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING AT
THIS POINT. GFS SHOWS H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -10C BY FRIDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS NOT AS COLD FRIDAY BUT DOES BRINGS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -8C BY
SATURDAY. WHETHER OR NOT FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE SEEN
WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLDEST AIR AND HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE
IS AROUND AS THIS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE
LEAST...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PROBABLY WILL SEE GRAUPEL IN THE
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AS WELL. DAYTIME TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL STAY IN THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD
AS LOW TO MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. ONGOING LLWS WILL END
OVERNIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT/WINDS AT TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
WEAKEN. MAY SEE A RETURN OF LLWS THIS EVENING AS PRES GRADIENT/WINDS
ABOVE DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
STRONG SW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS UNDER A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
A DEPARTING HI PRES RIDGE TO THE SE AND FALLING PRES OVER SCENTRAL
CANADA WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. BUT AS THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
WEAKENS THRU THE NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS RELATIVELY
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN/SUN NIGHT AND BRING SW
WINDS UNDER 20 KTS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP LOW PRES THROUGH
THROUGH ONTARIO ON MON...STRONG W WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH MON NIGHT WHILE VEERING TO THE NW. SINCE COLDER AIR WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS...INCREASED MIXING WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD GALES THAT WILL REACH 40-45
KTS. OPTED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR MON INTO TUE MORNING TO COVER
THIS POTENTIAL. TRAILING HI PRES WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS FOR
TUE INTO WED. AFTER ANOTHER TROF PASSES ON WED...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS INTO THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ266-267.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ162-263.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ264.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
244 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
HIGH WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA. COOLER WEATHER WILL ALSO RESULT.
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN IMPRESSIVE MIDDLE- AND
UPPER-LEVEL DRY SLOT SWEEPING ACROSS OREGON...AND THIS FEATURE IS
POISED TO CROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA TODAY. THIS SIGNATURE IS TIED TO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL PRODUCE STRONG DRYING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF WINDS ALOFT
TO THE GROUND TODAY. THERE ARE ALSO 5 MB/3 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES OBSERVED UPSTREAM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS OF 08 UTC...AND
THE 00 UTC MODEL SIMULATIONS ALL TAKE THOSE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS AND HARDIN THIS MORNING. THESE INGREDIENTS
ALL POINT TOWARD A HIGH WIND EVENT WHEREVER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
GROUND ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 60 MPH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. WE
POSTED HIGH WIND WARNINGS WHEREVER 00 UTC MODEL SOUNDINGS HAD 50+
KT WINDS WITHIN 3000 FT AGL OF THE GROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THUS...HIGH WIND WARNINGS GO EAST FROM BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON
TO BILLINGS...HARDIN...HYSHAM...MILES CITY...AND BAKER. BILLINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE AS THE 00 UTC MODEL
GUIDANCE AND MORE RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS ALL SHOW 50 TO 60 KT
WINDS WITHIN 2500 FT AGL OF THE GROUND BETWEEN 9 AM AND 1 PM MDT
TODAY...READILY SUPPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WARNING INTO
SOUTHERN BIG HORN...SOUTHERN ROSEBUD OR POWDER RIVER COUNTIES AS
PARTS OF THOSE AREAS WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES THIS MORNING...TOO.
THE LOWER-CONFIDENCE PART OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS ACTUALLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN MT...WHERE THE 00 UTC GFS IS STRONGER ALOFT WITH THE
WIND SPEEDS THAN THE 0THER 00 UTC MODELS OWING TO ITS DEEPER LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. THE PROBABILITY OF GUSTS
REACHING 60 MPH IN NORTHERN ROSEBUD...CUSTER...AND FALLON COUNTIES
WAS NONETHELESS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. THE
WARNING FOR THAT AREA WAS CARRIED THROUGH 06 UTC TONIGHT AS MODELS
SUGGEST A SECONDARY SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS AND PRESSURE RISES MAY
MOVE THROUGH THERE AFTER 00 UTC...WHILE LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
STILL STEEP ENOUGH FOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE GROUND.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED TO
YIELD HUMIDITIES UNDER 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WE HAVE ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WHOLE AREA BELOW 6000 FT MSL. THERE IS
A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LARGE WIND-DRIVEN GRASS FIRES...AND THE RED
FLAG WARNING IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT NFDRS INDICES.
BY MONDAY...THE WEATHER WILL TAKE ON A MUCH MORE QUIET TONE...WITH
LINGERING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S F.
SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW IMPACT.
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE A FACTOR WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE COOLER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS IT IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOWARD EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND
THEREFORE WAS STRONGER WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA. WILL LEAVE FORECAST IN CHECK AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS
ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS FORECAST. OVERALL...MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS
EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR KLVM EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO KBIL BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO KMLS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A
CONCERN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...AS WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE CLIMB TOWARD 40 KTS. STRONGER WINDS WILL
PUSH TOWARD THE SURFACE AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 040/071 047/074 046/072 044/064 039/066 045/073
0/N 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B
LVM 067 037/073 043/073 043/074 040/067 038/068 042/073
2/W 00/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 071 039/072 043/075 044/073 042/066 039/068 043/074
0/N 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
MLS 070 041/069 043/071 043/070 042/063 038/064 043/071
0/N 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
4BQ 070 040/068 043/072 044/071 042/064 037/066 043/072
0/N 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
BHK 069 041/066 042/069 041/068 040/060 037/061 041/067
0/N 00/N 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 072 037/071 042/074 041/073 041/066 038/068 041/073
0/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 01/B 10/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 28>39-41-42-56>58-63.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 28-63.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 29-30-34-35-41-42-57.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR ZONES 31>33.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING BELOW 6000 FEET FOR ZONES 40-64>68.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1136 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
A FAST MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS TAKEN HOLD WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PULL COOLER AIR FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD AND REPLACE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
RAPIDLY DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
A RED FLAG WARNING AND EXTENDED THE HOURS UNTIL 02Z MONDAY.
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY NEARLY SUPPORT RFW
CONDITIONS AS AREA RAWS STATIONS REPORTED RH AS LOW AS 16% WITH
20FT WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GIVEN THE FACT THAT SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER...DRIER...AND HAVE MORE WIND WE FELT IT WAS
NECESSARY TO GET THE WORD OUT NOW. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THE REGION WILL BE IN THE FINAL BREAKDOWN STAGE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR LARGE
RANGE LAND FIRE GROWTH. NOT TO BE OVERLOOKED IS THE FACT THAT A
COLD FRONT WILL BARREL THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR A WIND SHIFT. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SOLID MID HAINES 6 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY OF THE THREE /LOW RH AND WIND...HAINES
6...COLD FRONT WITH WARM/DRY CONDITIONS/ ARE POSSIBLE LOCAL CRITERIA
FOR A RFW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE BIAS
CORRECTED MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TO MID
90S. THIS STRATEGY APPEARS TO BE WORKING THIS AFTERNOON AS HOURLY
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO THE OBSERVED READINGS. THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE WOULD HAVE TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE SFC TO GET CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE AND WE WILL SEE IF THAT
MATERIALIZES THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD BE
A FEW DEGREES TO WARM.
THE MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT USES THE SAME STRATEGY AS THE
MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST PRODUCING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT INCREASE SUNDAY AFTN TO 25 MPH.
GUSTS TO 35 MPH SEEM LIKELY ACROSS WRN NEB. THESE STRONGER WINDS
WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES WARM LATE IN THE AFTN AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THE GFS IS LEADING THE PACK WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING
IN FROM THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. THE MODEL IS
KNOWN FOR DEEP MIXING BUT APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING IT THIS AFTN. SO A
BLEND OF GFS AND OTHER MODELS WAS USED FOR THE DEW POINTS SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL GET IN RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS
WHICH RUN OUT TO 18 HRS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MORE ACCURATE FORECAST.
THE MODEL BLEND USED TODAY EFFECTIVELY NUDGES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND A RIDGE
ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A MOIST
TRAJECTORY INTO THE AREA. THUS...AS THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH THE
STATE SUNDAY EVENING...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES...
HOWEVER...WILL BE AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY. EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH LOWER MONDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...ALSO QUITE LOW. THEREFORE...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE 15 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST
SANDHILLS AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY OVER
EVEN MORE OF THE SANDHILLS AND IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. USING A
BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED STATISTICAL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM AND GFS...EVEN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...MILD DAYS AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED. THEN...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
WINDS WILL BE AN AVIATION CONCERN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER 17Z AND
BECOME 29018G28KT AFT 19Z AND PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 00Z WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
THE GFS IS LEADING THE PACK WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING
IN FROM THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. THE MODEL IS
KNOWN FOR DEEP MIXING BUT APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING IT THIS AFTN. SO A
BLEND OF GFS AND OTHER MODELS WAS USED FOR THE DEW POINTS SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL GET IN RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS
WHICH RUN OUT TO 18 HRS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MORE ACCURATE FORECAST.
THE MODEL BLEND USED TODAY EFFECTIVELY NUDGES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JACOBS
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...COLE
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION TIME
NWS NORMAN OK
1114 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL APPLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
CLEAR WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR MOST
TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATE TOMORROW MORNING
TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KT FROM THE SSW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/
UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE THIS EVENING IS TO INCREASE CLOUDS AS WIDESPREAD
CIRRUS IS BEING OBSERVED MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM MISSOURI AND
EASTERN KANSAS AND ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER NORTH WITH THIS CURRENT CIRRUS... BUT WILL
ALSO INCREASE CLOUD COVER FARTHER SOUTH SOMEWHAT AS HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT MORE HIGH CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE
BAND SEEN NOW. ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN A BIT QUICKER
THAN THE HOURLY GRIDS WOULD HAVE SUGGESTED... THE DECREASE IN
TEMPS MAY SLOW WITH THESE CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD SO HAVE ONLY
LOWERED MINS A DEGREE OR SO.
EARLIER THIS EVENING... ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA ON SUNDAY AND MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS ON MONDAY AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE STATE FORESTRY
DEPARTMENT DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND THE
WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW RH EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON... LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK ACROSS FAR SWRN OK/WRN N TX
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. TEMPS WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... CONDITIONS WILL STAY RATHER CALM AND
MILD... WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGH DAYBREAK. WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH NOON AND INTO THE AFTN HOURS DUE
TO THE APPROACHING SFC TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...
UNSEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL. NEAR RECORD
HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED AT SOME LOCATIONS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN OK
AND WRN N TX. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 96 FOR WICHITA FALLS IS ONE
DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD OF 97... WHICH OCCURRED IN 1979. COMBINED
WITH BREEZY... 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTS... THROUGH THE AFTN... FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... UPON THE ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST... SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW...
LIKELY BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NWRN OK... CONTINUING ACROSS
THE REST OF WEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH SUNRISE. BEHIND THE FRONT... A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS WRN OK. 3HR PRESSURE
CHANGES BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z WILL BE WITHIN 5 TO 7MB. BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A SHALLOW YET WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER... WITH MEAN LAYER
WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING OF 35 TO 40 KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS AND GOOD CONTINUITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL GUIDANCE
RUNS... CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR STRONG WINDS... SUSTAINED 25 TO
30 AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH... OVER SEVERAL HOURS MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE... FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF WRN OK AND WRN N TX. IN
RELATION... GAVE THOUGHT TO A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH... HOWEVER
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET WHEN INCLUDING TEMPS AND RH. WITH THAT
SAID... GIVEN SUCH STRONG WINDS... FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
ELEVATED AS ANY FIRE COULD EASILY BECOME UNMANAGEABLE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL
KEEP THE SRN PLAINS IN A PATTERN OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER. A WEAK
FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY...
STALLING OUT AND WEAKENING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. LATE IN THE WEEK... AN ADDITIONAL
FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA... WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
JTK
FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY... WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF W/SW OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. FOR MONDAY... STRONG N/NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
MORNING... WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH GUSTS IN THE MORNING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH... ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP COULD BECOME
UNMANAGEABLE. PLEASE REMAIN MINDFUL OF WEATHER AND FUEL
CONDITIONS.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 91 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 62 92 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 96 66 88 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 58 92 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 59 91 61 80 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 58 93 69 89 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ009-014>017-021>024-027-033>039-044-045.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ014-016-021>023-033>038-044.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ014-016-
021>023-033>038-044.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ083>086.
&&
$$
25/03/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1256 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
MVFR VSBYS FROM FOG ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH MODELS
SHOWING FURTHER DEGENERATION THROUGH THE NIGHT TO NEAR IFR AND
POSSIBLE LIFR FROM ALI-VCT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME
BY 15Z FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BECOMING 10-15
KT OUT OF THE S-SE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE WEATHER GRIDS A BIT TO INCREASE THE
EXPECTED FOG COVERAGE, WHICH MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES TONIGHT. THE
NARRE AND MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM
VICTORIA CROSSROADS DOWN TO KINGSVILLE FORMING SPREADING TOWARDS
THE WEST-NORTHWEST INLAND A BIT MORE. STILL UNSURE HOW WIDESPREAD
THE DENSE FOG, IF IT FORMS, WOULD BE SO WE INCLUDED IT IN THE HWO
FOR THE TIME BEING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATON CYCLE.
AVIATION...
00Z TAFS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES...RADIATIONAL FOG EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS BY 08-09Z SUNDAY. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE PREVALENT FROM ALICE
TO BEEVILLE TO VICTORIA WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR AFTER 14Z
SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT RADIATION COOLING WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
FORMATION OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY LEADING TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT STILL
EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER INLAND AREAS LATE. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. CONVERGENCE IN THE VCNTY OF THE BNDRY AND POOLING MSTR
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISO-SCT CONVECTION - ESPLY
DURING DAYTIME HEATING TUE. FRONT THEN LOOKS TO WASH OUT TUE NGT
INTO WED WITH DEEP RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. USED A BLEND OF WARMER MEX AND COOLER HPC TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY HIT 90 OR HIGHER EACH
DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD - UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR MIDDLE OCTOBER TO BE
SURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 71 91 74 89 69 / 0 10 20 30 10
VICTORIA 68 90 70 89 63 / 0 10 20 20 10
LAREDO 72 95 73 92 69 / 0 10 10 20 10
ALICE 68 94 71 92 66 / 0 10 20 30 10
ROCKPORT 74 86 76 85 71 / 0 10 20 20 10
COTULLA 71 95 72 92 67 / 0 10 10 20 10
KINGSVILLE 69 93 73 91 67 / 0 10 20 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 74 86 77 85 73 / 0 10 20 30 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CB/85...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
133 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT
SOUTH TO ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO WEDGE SOUTH
ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BRINGING DRIER AIR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1140 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO SEVERAL GRIDS THIS HOUR. LOW CLOUDS PERSIST
ACROSS THE ALLEGHANYS AND BLUE RIDGE AND ACCORDING TO MOST
MODELS...LIKELY WILL THROUGH ABOUT 13/14Z. AM NOT SEEING ANY MORE
REPORTS OF DRIZZLE...SO WILL DROP THAT. LIGHT RAIN PERSISTS NEAR
THE NC CWA BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE OF UPPER LOW
ACROSS SC/NC. HRRR HANGS ON TO THIS ACROSS THIS REGION UNTIL ABOUT
09Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FROM SOUTHERN WILKES ACROSS TO
SOUTHERN CASWELL UNTIL ABOUT 07Z. LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
AND ALLEGHANYS RESULTING IN DENSE FOG AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WHICH HAS TRIGGERED SEVERAL VDOT I-77 ALARMS DURING
THE EVENING. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO COVER THIS THROUGH 13Z. THE
CLOUDS ARE ALSO HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS THE NEW RIVER AND
GREENBRIER VALLEY. LOOPING THROUGH THE 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE
IMAGE...THERE IS NO CLEAR EROSION OF THE EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUDS...SO WILL HOLD IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA AS BEFORE...WITH
SOME CLEARING NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE T/TD/POP/SKY/WX GRIDS THROUGH 14Z AS A
RESULT OF ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS.
AS OF 745 PM EDT SATURDAY...
MESOSCALE MODELS AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT NORTHWEST
EDGE OF LIGHT RAIN SHIELD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NC ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION ZONE OF UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT BACK INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN MOST COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE INCREASED
POPS ROUGHLY FROM YADKIN TO CASWELL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING
AS A RESULT...WHICH ALSO MATCHES UP BETTER WITH GSP/RAH POP GRIDS.
ELSEWHERE...SOME -DZ MAY CONTINUE FOR A WHILE ALONG THE EAST SIDE
OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS WELL...BUT SEEMS TO HAVE
ENDED FURTHER NORTH. CLOUD COVER IS A MORE COMPLEX ISSUE AS LEE SIDE
TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ALLEGHANYS. THIS IS DELAYING DISSIPATION OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS AREA...AND WHERE CLOUDS DON`T PERSIST...FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP.
AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
AS OF 210 PM EDT SATURDAY...
DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS REMAINS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE PINNED BETWEEN THE LOW AND DRIER AIR SURGING DOWN ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. ALSO SEEING RATHER WIDESPREAD -RA/DRIZZLE PERSIST ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE EASTERLY FLOW HAS AIDED UPSLOPE. THUS EXPECTING
LIGHT PRECIP/FOG TO LINGER SOUTHERN SECTIONS INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME DRYING/CLEARING OVER THE FAR NORTH/NW PER LATEST VISIBLE
PICS.
UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO BRING AN END TO MOST PRECIP THIS EVENING IF NOT
SOONER. HOWEVER FLOW REMAINS WEAK AND MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHEAST WITHIN
THE WEDGE UNTIL SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM SO EXODUS OF CLOUDS
REMAINS IFFY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN THE DRY ADVECTION WITH
BEST COLUMN DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN SEEN OUT EAST...AND LESS WEST
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER EASTERLY CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK
LEFTOVER INVERTED TROUGH. STILL THINK THE NAM MAY BE TOO SLOW SO
TRENDED WITH MORE CLEARING FROM NE TO SW A BIT SOONER...LEAVING ONLY
THE FAR SOUTH/SW STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK. SOME ADDED FOG AND
PERHAPS SPOTTY DRIZZLE TO LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH VALLEYS LIKELY TO SEE
MORE DENSE FOG IF CLEARING OCCURS QUICKER. LOW TEMPS ALSO DEPENDENT
UPON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING AS COULD SEE A FEW UPPER 30S DESPITE
MOISTURE NW VALLEYS IF SKIES CLEAR SOONER...WHILE THINKING 40S OVERALL
PER LATEST MAV MOS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES IN FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH BETTER SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SOUTHEAST UPPER
LOW...AIDING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AFTER EARLY LOW CLOUDS SOUTH. THIS
ALONG WITH LIGHT MIXING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 85H TEMPS SUPPORTS UNIFORM
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN WARMING OF DRY AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 220 PM EDT SATURDAY...
A PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH...THEN PROGRESSIVELY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. GFS INDICATING THAT WHILE THIS LOW IS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...IT WILL DRAW IN DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. ON THE OTHER HAND...ECM IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST...INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN...WHICH WOULD BRING POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN BANDS IN THE PIEDMONT. FAVORING THE DRIER GFS
SOLUTION...WILL RAISE DEW POINTS AND CLOUDS IN THE EAST TO
COMPROMISE WITH ECM.
MORE MOISTURE WILL EDGE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD ON THE NEXT FRONT TRACKING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE GFS...MOISTURE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RECOVER
MUCH FOR THE FRONT TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE PASSAGE SHOULD OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
NAM/ECM PLACING HIGH POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LIGHT RAIN (UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH). BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALL
MODELS HAVE WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST
COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING...BREEZY
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE
RISES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ADVISORY WINDS...BUT IT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO START CLEARING FALL FOLIAGE FROM TREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S WEST TO UPPER
70S EAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL
UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT SATURDAY...
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND
GUSTY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TUESDAY WITH A BETTER DEFINED HIGH
OVER THE OZARKS AND LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OZARKS AND WILL EDGE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITION PREVAILING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER FRONT TO
PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS WITH MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY FRONT...THE GFS IS DRIER THAN THE ECM. SINCE THIS IS
DAY 7...WE WILL KEEP POPS LOW WITH 30S ACROSS THE WEST AND 20S IN
THE EAST.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MODERATE WARMER ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE RAIN FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY BE AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW NORMAL WITH POSSIBLE HIGHS IN THE 60S.
WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COOLER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. COME NEXT WEEKEND...WE MAY BE ENTERTAINING THE IDEA OF
MORNING FROST AS 85H 0C LINE IS FORECASTED TO DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT SUNDAY...
LOOKING AT SOME CLEARING FROM LYH TO NORTH OF DAN AND EAST OF ROA
EARLY THIS MORNING. KEEPING CIGS/VSBYS ON THE LOW SIDE WITH LIFR
OR WORSE AT BCB/LWB/BLF/ROA...THOUGH THERE WILL BE TIMES
ESPECIALLY ROA/LWB WHERE MVFR WILL OCCUR. THINKING CLEARING MAY
REACH THE ROA AREA 8-10Z...ENOUGH TO SEND VSBYS TO IFR.
THE MODELS...MAINLY GFS/CMC CLEAR THINGS OUT FAST WHILE THE
NAM/SREF HOLD ONTO CLOUDS LONGER IN THE WEST TODAY. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE SLOWER CLEARING SOLUTION AND KEPT BLF/LWB/BCB IN THE
TANK FOR LIFR OR WORSE TIL 13-15Z.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY START TO MOVE IN SCATTERING OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS THOUGH MIXING STILL LOOKS WEAK...SO COULD BE A CASE WHERE
BLF/BCB COULD KEEP BKN MVFR/VFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT WENT
TOWARD MORE OPTIMISTIC GIVEN EXTENT OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SFC PER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH 17Z...THEN
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE LIMITED SUCH THAT THREAT OF SUB VFR IS MINIMAL. VFR
EXPECTED MIDWEEK BEHIND THE FRONT AS A DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/RAB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/JM/RAB/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
311 AM MST SUN OCT 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON TODAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING A RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH COOLER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACE
AN UPPER-LOW.../THE SAME LOW THAT JUST RECENTLY MOVED OUT OF OUR
AREA/...OFF THE BAJA COAST ALONG WITH STRONG RIDGING WHICH EXTENDS
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THE POSITION OF THIS LOW IS FACILITATING A
DEEP FETCH OF SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
MEXICO. IR SATELLITE SHOWS PLENTY OF LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH...AND SOME OF THIS
CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
IT APPEARS AS IF WE`LL MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF TUCSON...WITH
PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE THAN WE SAW ON SATURDAY. INDEED...RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN PRETTY AGGRESSIVELY HINTING AT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 20Z ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
HOWEVER...BASED ON YESTERDAY`S PERFORMANCE...AM INCLINED TO LEAN MORE
TOWARDS THE MORE SUBDUED HRRRX SOLUTION. AT ANY RATE...NUDGED POPS
UP TO A BIT THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE INTO MONDAY. NAM
AND GFS POINT SOUNDINGS ARE AGAIN SHOWING A SLIVER OF INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...JUST ENOUGH TO
WARRANT LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AGAIN.
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO TAKE HOLD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE TAKES CONTROL...ALBEIT BRIEFLY...OF OUR
WEATHER. 850-700 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER-90S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEAR RECORD HEAT WITH
WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY AT THIS TIME.
THE FORECAST THEN GETS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LOW STARTS TO PUSH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
DISPARITY...UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN THE LOW PREDICTABILITY IN THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN. IN GENERAL...INCREASED POPS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE AND INCREASING DYNAMICS SHOULD FOSTER SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FAVORED AREAS GENERALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. EITHER WAY YOU LOOK AT IT...THIS CERTAINLY IS QUITE THE UNIQUE
CASE OF AN UPPER-LOW THAT DOESN`T SEEM TO WANT TO LEAVE THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALONE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AT ALL
TERMINALS. ISOLATED STORMS MAY APPROACH KDUG AND KOLS AFTER 22Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN BECOMING GENERALLY NORTHWEST
5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 22Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST AREAS
TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. WINDS WILL BE TERRAIN DRIVEN...GIVING WAY TO
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST COMPONENT FOR MOST AREAS AFTER NOON. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE BY
LATE WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CARLAW
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CANTIN
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1158 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
MOST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS HAS FINALLY LIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN KY. ISOLATED SPOTS NEARER THE VA BORDER MAY DEAL WITH
SOME LINGERING STRATUS/FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR. MOST SPOTS HAVE BEEN
MET WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS WITH A FEW SPOTS ALREADY
IN THE LOWER 60S PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS. UPDATED GRIDS
WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
THIS UPDATE. ALSO UPDATED HWO TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
CONTINUING TO DEAL WITH AREAS TO PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY THIS LATE MORNING HOUR. DID OPT TO ADD A BIT MORE TO
THE WX GRIDS THIS HOUR GIVEN THAT IT HOLDS ON IN THE SE AND SW. DO
STILL THINK THIS WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WE WILL
BE LEFT WITH SUNNY SKIES. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE VALLEYS AND IS EVEN AFFECTING SOME
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EVIDENCED BY THE SOCKED IN JKL AND HAZ
AIRPORT SENSORS. STILL EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF OR LIFT BY 14Z. DID
FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDGED
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST. THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A COOL AIR MASS INTO THE
STATE ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS. OUTSIDE OF
THE CLOUDED AREA...A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS TO NEAR 50 ON THE RIDGES. THE STRATUS IS ALSO HINDERING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE CLEAR AND CLOUDY
SKIES...THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE REST OF THE
CLOUD FREE AREA TO SEE FOG AND LOCALIZED DENSE VALLEY FOG INTO
DAWN. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS ARE
SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES AT MOST PLACES WITH THE WINDS LIGHT
THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A STRONGER
LOW/TROUGH BARRELING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH MOVES BODILY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS INFLUENCE SPREADING WELL SOUTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF ENERGY AND
LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FOGGY START FOR MOST IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY GIVING WAY TO A PLEASANT AND MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
SETTING UP ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES...THOUGH MAYBE
SLIGHTLY LARGER IN THE FAR EAST. FOR MONDAY...A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH EAST KENTUCKY DRIVEN BY THE QUICK MOVING
TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...
BUT ENOUGH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SHEAR COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AMID ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. WILL ADD THESE TO THE
FORECAST AND HWO.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN THIS
MORNING FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH
THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH MONDAY. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME RELATIVE
ELEVATION BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AMPING
UP THE RIDGE AND VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WAS A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE IN THE EXTENDED. THE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY MOISTURE STARVED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND THERE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA BEHIND EACH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE COOLEST WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON ITS EASTWARD TREK ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY...WITH VALUES
MAXING OUT IN THE LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FIRST INVASION OF
COLD AIR IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS A
PARTICULARLY SHARP TROUGH ALOFT CARVES A PATH OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES IN OUR NORMALLY COLDEST
VALLEYS MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO THE FIRST FROST OF THE YOUNG FALL SEASON. AFTER A
BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 ON
FRIDAY MORNING...AS A SECOND SHOT OF PARTICULARLY COOL AIR SPILLS
INTO THE AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER
TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE STARVED SURFACE FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY
AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER MID TO UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
COULD AGAIN LEAD TO FROST FORMATION IN OUR COLDEST VALLEYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AT THE
MAJORITY OF THE SITES. ONCE THIS BURNS OFF LATER THIS MORNING...
AROUND 14-15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LATER TONIGHT...
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS...POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING SOME OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
CONTINUING TO DEAL WITH AREAS TO PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY THIS LATE MORNING HOUR. DID OPT TO ADD A BIT MORE TO
THE WX GRIDS THIS HOUR GIVEN THAT IT HOLDS ON IN THE SE AND SW. DO
STILL THINK THIS WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WE WILL
BE LEFT WITH SUNNY SKIES. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE VALLEYS AND IS EVEN AFFECTING SOME
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EVIDENCED BY THE SOCKED IN JKL AND HAZ
AIRPORT SENSORS. STILL EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF OR LIFT BY 14Z. DID
FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDGED
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST. THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A COOL AIR MASS INTO THE
STATE ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS. OUTSIDE OF
THE CLOUDED AREA...A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS TO NEAR 50 ON THE RIDGES. THE STRATUS IS ALSO HINDERING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE CLEAR AND CLOUDY
SKIES...THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE REST OF THE
CLOUD FREE AREA TO SEE FOG AND LOCALIZED DENSE VALLEY FOG INTO
DAWN. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS ARE
SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES AT MOST PLACES WITH THE WINDS LIGHT
THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A STRONGER
LOW/TROUGH BARRELING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH MOVES BODILY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS INFLUENCE SPREADING WELL SOUTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF ENERGY AND
LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FOGGY START FOR MOST IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY GIVING WAY TO A PLEASANT AND MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
SETTING UP ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES...THOUGH MAYBE
SLIGHTLY LARGER IN THE FAR EAST. FOR MONDAY...A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH EAST KENTUCKY DRIVEN BY THE QUICK MOVING
TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...
BUT ENOUGH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SHEAR COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AMID ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. WILL ADD THESE TO THE
FORECAST AND HWO.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN THIS
MORNING FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH
THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH MONDAY. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME RELATIVE
ELEVATION BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AMPING
UP THE RIDGE AND VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WAS A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE IN THE EXTENDED. THE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY MOISTURE STARVED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND THERE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA BEHIND EACH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE COOLEST WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON ITS EASTWARD TREK ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY...WITH VALUES
MAXING OUT IN THE LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FIRST INVASION OF
COLD AIR IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS A
PARTICULARLY SHARP TROUGH ALOFT CARVES A PATH OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES IN OUR NORMALLY COLDEST
VALLEYS MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO THE FIRST FROST OF THE YOUNG FALL SEASON. AFTER A
BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 ON
FRIDAY MORNING...AS A SECOND SHOT OF PARTICULARLY COOL AIR SPILLS
INTO THE AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER
TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE STARVED SURFACE FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY
AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER MID TO UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
COULD AGAIN LEAD TO FROST FORMATION IN OUR COLDEST VALLEYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AT THE
MAJORITY OF THE SITES. ONCE THIS BURNS OFF LATER THIS MORNING...
AROUND 14-15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LATER TONIGHT...
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS...POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING SOME OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE VALLEYS AND IS EVEN AFFECTING SOME
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EVIDENCED BY THE SOCKED IN JKL AND HAZ
AIRPORT SENSORS. STILL EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF OR LIFT BY 14Z. DID
FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDGED
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST. THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A COOL AIR MASS INTO THE
STATE ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS. OUTSIDE OF
THE CLOUDED AREA...A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS TO NEAR 50 ON THE RIDGES. THE STRATUS IS ALSO HINDERING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE CLEAR AND CLOUDY
SKIES...THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE REST OF THE
CLOUD FREE AREA TO SEE FOG AND LOCALIZED DENSE VALLEY FOG INTO
DAWN. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS ARE
SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES AT MOST PLACES WITH THE WINDS LIGHT
THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A STRONGER
LOW/TROUGH BARRELING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH MOVES BODILY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS INFLUENCE SPREADING WELL SOUTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF ENERGY AND
LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FOGGY START FOR MOST IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY GIVING WAY TO A PLEASANT AND MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
SETTING UP ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES...THOUGH MAYBE
SLIGHTLY LARGER IN THE FAR EAST. FOR MONDAY...A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH EAST KENTUCKY DRIVEN BY THE QUICK MOVING
TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...
BUT ENOUGH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SHEAR COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AMID ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. WILL ADD THESE TO THE
FORECAST AND HWO.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN THIS
MORNING FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH
THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH MONDAY. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME RELATIVE
ELEVATION BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AMPING
UP THE RIDGE AND VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WAS A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE IN THE EXTENDED. THE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY MOISTURE STARVED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND THERE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA BEHIND EACH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE COOLEST WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON ITS EASTWARD TREK ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY...WITH VALUES
MAXING OUT IN THE LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FIRST INVASION OF
COLD AIR IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS A
PARTICULARLY SHARP TROUGH ALOFT CARVES A PATH OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES IN OUR NORMALLY COLDEST
VALLEYS MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO THE FIRST FROST OF THE YOUNG FALL SEASON. AFTER A
BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 ON
FRIDAY MORNING...AS A SECOND SHOT OF PARTICULARLY COOL AIR SPILLS
INTO THE AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER
TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE STARVED SURFACE FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY
AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER MID TO UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
COULD AGAIN LEAD TO FROST FORMATION IN OUR COLDEST VALLEYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS AT THE
MAJORITY OF THE SITES. ONCE THIS BURNS OFF LATER THIS MORNING...
AROUND 14-15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LATER TONIGHT...
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS...POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING SOME OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
930 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.UPDATE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTED THROUGH BILLINGS AROUND 7AM AND WILL
BE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE MOVING
ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING GENERALLY 40 TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
WIND GUST SO FAR BEING 70 MPH AT THE BILLINGS AIRPORT SHORTLY
BEFORE 9AM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSFER DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CURRENT WIND HIGHLIGHTS LOOK GOOD AND WILL
MAKE NO CHANGES TO THESE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE LIVINGSTON AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS WHERE WINDS
HAVE BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT SO THIS HIGHLIGHT MAY BE CANCELLED
EARLY BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW GIVEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING.
HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
HIGH WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
QUICKLY CROSSES THE AREA. COOLER WEATHER WILL ALSO RESULT.
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN IMPRESSIVE MIDDLE- AND
UPPER-LEVEL DRY SLOT SWEEPING ACROSS OREGON...AND THIS FEATURE IS
POISED TO CROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA TODAY. THIS SIGNATURE IS TIED TO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE THAT WILL PRODUCE STRONG DRYING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF WINDS ALOFT
TO THE GROUND TODAY. THERE ARE ALSO 5 MB/3 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES OBSERVED UPSTREAM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS OF 08 UTC...AND
THE 00 UTC MODEL SIMULATIONS ALL TAKE THOSE EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM
LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS AND HARDIN THIS MORNING. THESE INGREDIENTS
ALL POINT TOWARD A HIGH WIND EVENT WHEREVER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
GROUND ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 60 MPH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. WE
POSTED HIGH WIND WARNINGS WHEREVER 00 UTC MODEL SOUNDINGS HAD 50+
KT WINDS WITHIN 3000 FT AGL OF THE GROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THUS...HIGH WIND WARNINGS GO EAST FROM BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON
TO BILLINGS...HARDIN...HYSHAM...MILES CITY...AND BAKER. BILLINGS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE AS THE 00 UTC MODEL
GUIDANCE AND MORE RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS ALL SHOW 50 TO 60 KT
WINDS WITHIN 2500 FT AGL OF THE GROUND BETWEEN 9 AM AND 1 PM MDT
TODAY...READILY SUPPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WARNING INTO
SOUTHERN BIG HORN...SOUTHERN ROSEBUD OR POWDER RIVER COUNTIES AS
PARTS OF THOSE AREAS WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES THIS MORNING...TOO.
THE LOWER-CONFIDENCE PART OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS ACTUALLY IN
SOUTHEASTERN MT...WHERE THE 00 UTC GFS IS STRONGER ALOFT WITH THE
WIND SPEEDS THAN THE 0THER 00 UTC MODELS OWING TO ITS DEEPER LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. THE PROBABILITY OF GUSTS
REACHING 60 MPH IN NORTHERN ROSEBUD...CUSTER...AND FALLON COUNTIES
WAS NONETHELESS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. THE
WARNING FOR THAT AREA WAS CARRIED THROUGH 06 UTC TONIGHT AS MODELS
SUGGEST A SECONDARY SURGE OF STRONGER WINDS AND PRESSURE RISES MAY
MOVE THROUGH THERE AFTER 00 UTC...WHILE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
STILL STEEP ENOUGH FOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE GROUND.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED TO
YIELD HUMIDITIES UNDER 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WE HAVE ISSUED
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE WHOLE AREA BELOW 6000 FT MSL. THERE IS
A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LARGE WIND-DRIVEN GRASS FIRES...AND THE RED
FLAG WARNING IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT NFDRS INDICES.
BY MONDAY...THE WEATHER WILL TAKE ON A MUCH MORE QUIET TONE...WITH
LINGERING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S F.
SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF WEATHER CONTINUES TO LOOK LOW IMPACT.
NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE A FACTOR WITH RISING
HEIGHTS. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN THE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE COOLER
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS IT IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOWARD EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY MORNING AND
THEREFORE WAS STRONGER WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA. WILL LEAVE FORECAST IN CHECK AS PREVIOUS SHIFTS
ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO A
SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS FORECAST. OVERALL...MILD AND DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION QUICKLY THIS MORNING...HAVING
CROSSED THROUGH KBIL...KMLS...AND KBHK...BUT NOT YET REACHED KSHR.
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...WITH SOME LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
GUSTS OF 70 MPH HAVE OCCURRED IN KBIL...WITH 62 MPH REPORTED IN
COLUMBUS. 70 MPH GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN KBIL...BUT
WILL STAY STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT EASTWARD BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY TAPER
OFF ACROSS THE WEST. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 040/071 047/074 046/072 044/064 039/066 045/073
0/N 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B
LVM 067 037/073 043/073 043/074 040/067 038/068 042/073
2/W 00/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 071 039/072 043/075 044/073 042/066 039/068 043/074
0/N 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
MLS 070 041/069 043/071 043/070 042/063 038/064 043/071
0/N 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
4BQ 070 040/068 043/072 044/071 042/064 037/066 043/072
0/N 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
BHK 069 041/066 042/069 041/068 040/060 037/061 041/067
0/N 00/N 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 072 037/071 042/074 041/073 041/066 038/068 041/073
0/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 01/B 10/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 28>39-41-42-56>58-63.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 28>30-34-35-41-42-57-63.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 31>33.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW
6000 FEET FOR ZONES 40-64>68.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 98-99.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1041 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
WIND HEADLINES ARE THE MAJOR CONCERN. THE SAME GENERAL IDEAS
REMAIN...STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS (WITH GUSTS NEAR
WARNING CRITERIA). THEN...WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
THE 12Z NAM IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE SFC LOW BY 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THE UPPER
WAVE IS EVOLVING WITHIN. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS HOW TO HANDLE THIS
EVENT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND DOUBLE BARREL NATURE (TWO PERIODS
OF WARNING POTENTIAL WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN).
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS INDICATING INCREASING 925MB WIND SPEEDS BY 00Z TO
AROUND 50-55 KNOTS AS IT DEVELOPS A 925MB CIRCULATION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. IT IS A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITHIN THAT THERMAL GRADIENT IS POSSIBLE. FOR THIS
REASON...THINK IT IS BEST TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH INTO THE
VALLEY FOR THIS EVENING AT LEAST. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS WATCH
INTO MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND AND POSSIBLE
WARNING CRITERIA MONDAY MORNING.
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AS CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED ENOUGH FOR STRONGER WINDS MONDAY MORNING IN THIS
LOCATION...IF NOT THIS AFTERNOON FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND WINDS THROUGH MONDAY ARE THE MAIN SHORT TERM
CONCERNS.
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS ON TAP AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH INTO THE N RRV/DEVILS LAKE BASIN BY MID DAY...AND EXIT
NW MN BY EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS
IS ALSO EXPECTED. RECORD HIGHS TODAY INCLUDE 81 AT NWS FGF...82
AT GFK AIRPORT...AND 85 AT FARGO. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL RRV INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...WITH A
TONGUE OF +23C 850 MB TEMPS OVER THIS AREA BY 18Z AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. IT CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE SOME SPOTS IN THE S RRV/WC MN
COULD TOUCH 9O.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WINDS WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTENSE UPPER WAVE THAT WILL DIG INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A STRONG SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH 850 MB WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...SHOULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY RRV WESTWARD. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER SE ND/WC MN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS/WARM TEMPS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT WINDS MAY DECREASE A BIT DURING THE
EVENING AFTER THE FIRST SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION...BEFORE A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
WAVE PASSES AND THE SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WITH 850 MB WINDS
INCREASING ABOVE 50 KTS...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS
WELL OVER 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE MAIN DOWNSIDE FOR HIGH
WINDS WOULD BE TIME OF DAY...BUT ASSUMING STRONG ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHER GUSTS LOOK PLAUSIBLE. STRONG WINDS...AT LEAST
INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...LIKELY WILL SPREAD INTO THE RRV AND
NW MN LATER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NOW WEST
OF THE RRV. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A POSSIBLE
PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH THE INITIAL COLD SURGE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.
OTHERWISE...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER WAVE MAINLY ACROSS NE ND AND NW MN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AROUND 30 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
AREAS REMAINING IN THE 40S...ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER LONGER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
WINDS WILL DECREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER RETURNING
INTO MID-WEEK UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REBOUND
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S IN MOST AREAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
CLOSER TO TYPICAL MID OCTOBER LEVELS. AREA WILL BE IN WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH
BUT MOISTURE IS SCANT AND ANY SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH OVER ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CURRENTLY IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REACH KDVL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...KGFK/KFAR
AROUND 21Z...AND KBJI BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KTS...AND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS RRV WESTWARD FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 05-06Z...WITH GUSTS ABOVE 40 KTS
POSSIBLE (HIGHEST WEST). A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS WILL
ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP
YET. WILL ALSO KEEP CEILINGS VFR...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR LOWER CEILINGS LATER SUN NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION TO UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 20-
25 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-049-052-053.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY
FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.
MN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1047 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY SHOWS JUST TAPPING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
IN A SMALL PART OF SW OK AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE ALREADY
SHOWING ON THE OK MESONET. THE FACTOR TO WATCH WILL BE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE IS QUITE MOIST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE,
BUT MIXING WILL BRING THE RH DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
MENTIONED AREAS...JUST SOME PARTS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 20. GRIDS
WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER SCENARIO, OTHERWISE
LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE FOR TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 61 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 95 57 84 47 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 97 65 89 51 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 92 52 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 93 59 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 91 68 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ009-014>017-021>024-027-033>039-044-045.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ014-016-
021>023-033>038-044.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR OKZ033-036.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ083>086.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.
&&
$$
09/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
956 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
HIGH WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. INHERITED
HEADLINES LOOK GOOD AS DEER CREEK HAS SEEN CONSISTENT GUSTS AT OR
ABOVE 60 MPH SINCE 14Z. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD 55-65 KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BETWEEN RAWLINS
AND CHEYENNE...AS WELL AS DRY ADIABATIC SURFACE-650 MILLIBAR LAPSE
RATES. WHILE THE BEST DOWNWARD OMEGA APPEARS TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...A STRONG GJT-CYS PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND 10 MILLIBARS IS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS LOCALLY. WE JUST
HIT 50 KTS AT KCYS WITH THE INITIAL MIXING...AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEP MIXING WITH 50 KTS UPSTAIRS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AFTERNOON. WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXISTING TO THE WEST WITH
EVEN BETTER VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS...ADDED REMAINING AREAS FROM
CHEYENNE TO RAWLINS TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING. OPTED TO INCLUDE
NIOBRARA COUNTY AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WESTERN NE
PANHANDLE FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED
PACKAGE WILL BE SENT SHORTLY TO REFLECT CHANGES TO HAZARDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
WINDY AND DRY DAY AHEAD FOR THE REGION. WITH THE LLVL GRADIENT
INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY (850MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS AROUND 50)
...WIND GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH ARE BEING OBSERVED AT ARLINGTON. UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD
INCREASE IN WINDS LATER TODAY IS CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO. IT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO MONTANA AND THEN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS
EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR
TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. 700MB FLOW IS STILL PROGGED TO BE 50-55
KTS FROM NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY EASTWARD INTO CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES. SINCE THE FLOW ALOFT IS STRONGER ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND HIGH WIND WARNING TO
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (IN
PARTICULAR THE NORTHERN HALF)...HOWEVER THE MET GUIDANCE WAS QUITE
A BIT LOWER THAN THE MAV. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AND LET THE DAY
SHIFT MONITOR. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AFTER 00Z AS THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WENT ON THE DRY SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS AS THE
GOOD MIXING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TRANSPORT DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE
SFC. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE 14-18 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH RH IS ONLY MARGINALLY CRITICAL...THE STRONG WINDS THOUGH
THE AFTERNOON WOULD RESULT IN VERY FAST FIRE SPREAD IN THE CURED
GRASSES SHOULD WE GET A FIRE START. THUS...UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING AND EXTENDED IT TO ZONES 303 AND 308 TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.
MONDAY WILL SEE A DROP OF 15-20 DEGREES BEHIND THE FROPA. THERE
WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE MIN RH VALUES
WILL STILL FALL TO 15-20 PERCENT. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR CARBON COUNTY ON
MONDAY AFTN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH...BUT IT IS
STILL A MARGINAL EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A QUIET AND BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE OVER WYOMING AND THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN IS THE PLACEMENT OF A SHALLOW SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS
FEATURE AS THE GFS SHOWS THIS FRONT MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...GEM...AND ENSEMBLES. THEREFORE...DID NOT
LOWER TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGESTS AT THIS
TIME. REGARDLESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO LOWER INTO THE
60S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MODELS INDICATING THE JET STREAM REMAINING TOO FAR NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN AT THIS
TIME...WITH PERHAPS BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE ON TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RELATIVELY
LIGHT BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THEN GRADUALLY VEER INTO THE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW AN UNORGANIZED UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL THROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MAY ABSORB THIS ENERGY AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG
WEST COAST. INCREASED POP A BIT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR
DAYTIME RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AS A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY
MID MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KNOTS OVER
SOUTHEAST WYOMING...AND UP TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA BY
LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL REALLY INCREASE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 15-20 PERCENT. WITH GRASSES
COMPLETELY CURED...THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN EXTREMELY FAST
FIRE SPREAD SHOULD ANY FIRE START. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. AN
ELEVATED FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER CARBON COUNTY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301>303-
308>310.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101-102-
104>107-109-110-115>118.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...ZF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
950 AM MST SUN OCT 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN
COMBINATION WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLEAR SKIES TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THIS FORECAST AREA ACROSS MUCH
OF SONORA MEXICO. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 1-2
HOURS DEPICTED THE BULK OF THESE CLOUDS TO BE ERODING UPON
APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z WERE IN THE LOWER-MID
50S...AND THESE TEMPS WERE GENERALLY UNCHANGED VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO.
HOWEVER...11/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.30
INCHES WAS NEARLY 0.50 INCH HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE MOST
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE INCREASE OCCURRED IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER.
11/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SW OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA SPUR NEAR 25N/119W...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SRN
CALIFORNIA SEWD INTO SOUTH TEXAS. LIGHT SLY/SWLY FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS SE ARIZONA ABOVE 700 MB.
11/12Z NAM AND SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ERN
SANTA CRUZ/SW COCHISE COUNTY AND NEAR THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN
ERN COCHISE COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE 11/12Z GFS AND UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM
DEPICT PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR ACROSS THIS FORECAST AREA
INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE INHERITED LOW-GRADE POPS...WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. THE BEST LOCALES FOR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS
TO OCCUR SHOULD BE MAINLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT
SANTA CRUZ/COCHISE COUNTIES. ANY CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD
TERMINATE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH TEMPS TO AVERAGE ABOUT 3-6 DEGS F ABOVE NORMAL. PLEASE
REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /311 AM MST/...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD
CHANGE VERY LITTLE INTO MONDAY. NAM AND GFS POINT SOUNDINGS ARE
AGAIN SHOWING A SLIVER OF INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...JUST ENOUGH TO WARRANT LOW-END SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AGAIN. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO TAKE HOLD AREA-WIDE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE TAKES CONTROL...ALBEIT
BRIEFLY...OF OUR WEATHER. 850-700 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER-90S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...NEAR
RECORD HEAT WITH WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY AT THIS TIME.
THE FORECAST THEN GETS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LOW STARTS TO PUSH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
DISPARITY...UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN THE LOW PREDICTABILITY IN THIS TYPE
OF PATTERN. IN GENERAL...INCREASED POPS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE AND INCREASING DYNAMICS SHOULD FOSTER SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE FAVORED AREAS GENERALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR
CWA. EITHER WAY YOU LOOK AT IT...THIS CERTAINLY IS QUITE THE UNIQUE
CASE OF AN UPPER-LOW THAT DOESN`T SEEM TO WANT TO LEAVE THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALONE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/12Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA MAY OCCUR SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS MAINLY
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 8-12K FT AGL AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL.
SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND COCHISE
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
243 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
CANADIAN/MONTANA BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
OUR CWA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FROPA WITH STEEP PRESSURE RISES. AT THIS
TIME GUSTS 30-40 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.
UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT THEN TRANSITIONS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY. DUE TO A DEEP DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE A
RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST
OVER EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES COME ACROSS THE FA IN THE FLOW. SOME LIFT IS
INDICATED BUT ADEQUATE MOISTURE IS LACKING. CHANCES FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LOW. CONSEQUENTLY,
POPS WILL BE NIL FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S. MAX
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
EXIST IN EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH SUNDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO THE LOWER 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. SATURDAY NIGHT MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO THE UPPER 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S THURSDAY TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND THEN BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WITH INCREASING
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTS AT KMCK WHERE TIGHTER
SURFACE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE. SURFACE LOW NEAR KGLD SHOULD KEEP
WINDS LESS THAN 12KT THROUGH THE EARLY TAF PERIOD. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS THIS EVENING AND A SHIFT IN
DIRECTION TO THE NW. AFTER INITIAL SURGE OF GUSTS AROUND 20KT
PASSES BOTH TERMINALS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEVEL OFF AROUND 12KT
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
THIS AFTERNOON...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING WITHIN A
VERY DRY AIR MASS ASS HAVE LED TO RH VALUES DROPPING TO 15 PERCENT
OR LESS ACROSS OUR CWA. WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA AND
MAIN LOW AND MID LEVEL JET AXIS REMAINING NORTH HAS RESULTED N
WINDS REMAINING BELOW RFW CRITERIA. AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD STILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA...SO THERE SHOULD STILL BE A WINDOW FOR
25 MPH BEFORE SUNSET IN SW NEBRASKA/NE COLORADO. NO CHANGES
PLANNED TO CURRENT RFW AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY...VERY LOW TD VALUES WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR CWA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH VALUES IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S. UNIDIRECTIONAL
GRADIENT WILL BE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD...SO WHILE THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON COULD SEE GUSTS 20-30 MPH THERE WILL ONLY BE A
SMALL WINDOW IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN OUR EASTERN CWA FOR 25
MPH/LOWER RH VALUES. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THIS
TRANSITION AND UNCERTAINTY OF 3HR OF RFW CONDITIONS. WITH ONGOING
RFW AND LOW CONFIDENCE THE DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUANCE OF WATCH DURING THIS UPDATE CYCLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
122 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
MOST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS HAS FINALLY LIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN KY. ISOLATED SPOTS NEARER THE VA BORDER MAY DEAL WITH
SOME LINGERING STRATUS/FOG FOR ANOTHER HOUR. MOST SPOTS HAVE BEEN
MET WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS WITH A FEW SPOTS ALREADY
IN THE LOWER 60S PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS. UPDATED GRIDS
WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED
THIS UPDATE. ALSO UPDATED HWO TO TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF FOG.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1013 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
CONTINUING TO DEAL WITH AREAS TO PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY THIS LATE MORNING HOUR. DID OPT TO ADD A BIT MORE TO
THE WX GRIDS THIS HOUR GIVEN THAT IT HOLDS ON IN THE SE AND SW. DO
STILL THINK THIS WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WE WILL
BE LEFT WITH SUNNY SKIES. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE VALLEYS AND IS EVEN AFFECTING SOME
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS EVIDENCED BY THE SOCKED IN JKL AND HAZ
AIRPORT SENSORS. STILL EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF OR LIFT BY 14Z. DID
FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDGED
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST. THE HIGH HAS BROUGHT A COOL AIR MASS INTO THE
STATE ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS. OUTSIDE OF
THE CLOUDED AREA...A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE
VALLEYS TO NEAR 50 ON THE RIDGES. THE STRATUS IS ALSO HINDERING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
PATCHES FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE CLEAR AND CLOUDY
SKIES...THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CWA. EXPECT THE REST OF THE
CLOUD FREE AREA TO SEE FOG AND LOCALIZED DENSE VALLEY FOG INTO
DAWN. WILL LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS ARE
SIMILAR TO TEMPERATURES AT MOST PLACES WITH THE WINDS LIGHT
THROUGH THE AREA.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A STRONGER
LOW/TROUGH BARRELING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH MOVES BODILY
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH ITS INFLUENCE SPREADING WELL SOUTH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF ENERGY AND
LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO KENTUCKY BY 00Z
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A FOGGY START FOR MOST IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY GIVING WAY TO A PLEASANT AND MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
SETTING UP ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES...THOUGH MAYBE
SLIGHTLY LARGER IN THE FAR EAST. FOR MONDAY...A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH EAST KENTUCKY DRIVEN BY THE QUICK MOVING
TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...
BUT ENOUGH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND SHEAR COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AMID ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. WILL ADD THESE TO THE
FORECAST AND HWO.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT AGAIN THIS
MORNING FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH
THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH MONDAY. DID AGAIN MAKE SOME RELATIVE
ELEVATION BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AMPING
UP THE RIDGE AND VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED
UP DRY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND THEN WAS A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE IN THE EXTENDED. THE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF INCREASINGLY MOISTURE STARVED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND THERE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE
AREA BEHIND EACH PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE COOLEST WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON ITS EASTWARD TREK ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD WILL BE QUITE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. DAY TIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S EACH DAY...WITH VALUES
MAXING OUT IN THE LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FIRST INVASION OF
COLD AIR IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS A
PARTICULARLY SHARP TROUGH ALOFT CARVES A PATH OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES IN OUR NORMALLY COLDEST
VALLEYS MAY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO THE FIRST FROST OF THE YOUNG FALL SEASON. AFTER A
BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 ON
FRIDAY MORNING...AS A SECOND SHOT OF PARTICULARLY COOL AIR SPILLS
INTO THE AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER
TROUGH AND ITS MOISTURE STARVED SURFACE FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY
AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER MID TO UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH
COULD AGAIN LEAD TO FROST FORMATION IN OUR COLDEST VALLEYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FOG TONIGHT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE QUITE THE EXTENSIVE AS THIS
MORNING. RIGHT NOW OPTED TO PLAY MVFR FOG AT BOTH LOZ AND SME AT
06Z...OTHER SITES CONFIDENCE IS LOWER OVERALL. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A GENERAL
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA ON THE NRN FLANK OF
UPR RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE PLAINS. AT
THE LLVLS...PERSISTENT WSW FLOW BTWN HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND
AREA OF LO PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA IS ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND DRY AIRMASS/AREA OF H85 TEMPS AOA 20C OVER MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL
CONUS INTO THE UPR LKS. THE COMBINATION OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND THE UNSEASONABLE H85
WARMTH IS RESULTING IN SOME RECORD/NEAR RECORD TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 70S AND EVEN THE 80S THIS AFTN AWAY FM LK MI MODERATION.
LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A POTENT SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW IS MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...RESULTING IN 12HR H5 HGT FALLS
UP TO 150M AND SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40-50 KTS OVER MONTANA.
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON FCST SURGE OF LLVL MSTR
SHOWN BY SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS INTO THE UPR LKS TNGT AHEAD OF
COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV TO THE W AND THEN POPS/WINDS ON MON
AS POTENT SHRTWV NOW APRCHG THE NRN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPR LKS.
TNGT...THIS EVNG WL BE MOCLR WITH WARM AND DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING.
BUT OVERNGT AS UPR SHRTWV MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND INTO
NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z...ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT IS FCST
TO SWING THRU THE WRN CWA AND REACH THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 12Z.
DESPITE 12HR H5 HGT FALLS FCST UP 150-200M AND A BAND OF DPVA/H85-5
QVECTOR CNVGC...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE FROPA WL BE A DRY ONE
GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MSTR INFLOW. BUT SEVERAL OF THE SHORTER TERM
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM...INDICATE STRENGTHENING LLVL SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WL ADVECT MORE LLVL MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS AND
BRING SOME LO CLDS. CONSIDERING THE WARMTH/DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS AND
STEADY WINDS THAT WOULD RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL/INCRS IN NEAR
SFC RH...FAVOR THE DRIER MODEL SCENARIOS THAT SHOW LOWER NEAR SFC
RH/LESS IN THE WAY OF LO CLDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...W WINDS
COULD GUST AS HI AS 25 TO 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH INCRSG CAA/
INSTABILITY.
MON...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE SHRTWV AS A
SECOND JET STREAK CORE DIGS INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY AND
AMPLIFIES THE ACCOMPANYING UPR TROFFING. THIS JET CORE ALSO HAS
RESULTED IN A SHARPER TRAILING SECOND SFC COLD FNT IN MN...WITH THE
RESULT A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER SFC WINDS OVER UPR MI UNTIL
THAT SECOND FNT/TROF PASSES LATE ON MON OR EVEN MON EVNG. SINCE THE
LLVL WINDS WL BE WEAKER AND MORE BACKED TO THE SW AND H85 TEMPS DO
NOT FALL AS QUICKLY WITH A HINT OF AN H85 THERMAL RDG AHEAD OF THE
SECOND FNT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY...WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LESS
EXPOSED KEWEENAW WL BE WEAKER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTN. FOR THIS REASON...DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVY FOR
THAT AREA UNTIL 00Z TUE. DRY SLOTTING FOLLOWING THE MRNG COLD FROPA
WL GRDLY GIVE WAY TO MORE CLDS AS AREA OF HIER RH WITHIN DEEP CYC
FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF CLOSED LO TRACKING THRU ONTARIO OVERSPREADS
THE AREA. HI CHC/LIKELY POPS WL RETURN OVER THE W DURING THE AFTN
WITH THE CORE OF THE DEEPER MSTR IN ADVANCE OF THE TRAILING SECOND
COLD FNT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE MUCH LOWER THAN TDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKWASH MSTR/CLDS WL ARRIVE EARLIER FOLLOWING
THE DRY SLOTTING...MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S WL STILL BE ABV NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
...STRONGEST WINDS DELAYED BUT STILL WINDY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVING ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS
PROGRESSIVE ATTM...BUT SYSTEM SLOWS CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS STRONGER JET STREAK AT H25 DIGS FM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAJORITY OF MODELS
HAVE LATCHED ON TO THIS MUCH SLOWER TREND WHICH DELAYS STRONGEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RESULTING ONSET OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
NEAR LK SUPERIOR UNTIL MONDAY EVENING AT THE EARLIEST. NO REAL
CHANGE TO EXPECTED STRENGTH OF WINDS...JUST THE TIMING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 3-8C /LOWEST WEST/ AT 21Z ON
MONDAY DOWN TO -2C TO 3C /LOWEST EAST/ AT 21Z ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
WINDS OF 35-45 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN GALES OVER LK
SUPERIOR AND WINDS NEARING ADVISORY LEVEL AT SHORELINE AREAS OF
KEWEENAW AND EVENTUALLY OVER ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES. STRONGEST
WINDS ON KEWEENAW WOULD BE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE EAST CWA WOULD NOT SEE STRONGER WINDS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT LASTING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
COORD WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER TO DELAY START OF WIND ADVISORY
ON KEWEENAW 00Z TUE THROUGH 12Z TUE.
GIVEN SLOWER TREND WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LINGERED HIGHER POPS
LONGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS STILL FEATURED OVER EAST
CWA ALONG TRACK OF SMALLER SHORTWAVE CROSSING LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO
JUST AHEAD OF SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE
IN THE EVENING. HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST INTERIOR SHOULD ALSO SEE THE
MOST SHOWERS AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS WITH NNW WINDS PROVIDING
UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THERE IS SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY AS
DELTA T/S ARE OVER 8C. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMES MUCH
SHALLOWER BY 12Z SO IT WILL TURN INTO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
SETUP. H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C OR AS LOW AS -2C WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN LEFTOVER CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH
IN WAY OF RAIN. MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE FINISHED UP BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. THERMAL TROUGH STILL IN THE AREA AND
WINDS COMING OFF LK SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY IN
THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE LOW-MID 50S SCNTRL.
REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMINATED BY SERIES OF TROUGHS DROPPING ACROSS
UPPER GREAT LAKES WED INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS TROUGH ALOFT PERSISTS
DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. LEAD SHORTWAVE AND
SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST FORCING AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN. SOUNDINGS
SHOWED FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE
SHOWERY. TEMPS MAY BOUNCE BACK SOME COMPARED TO THE TUE CHILL...BUT
READINGS IN THE AFTN COULD FALL A FEW DEGREES NEAR LK SUPERIOR ONCE
WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE. SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER THROUGH THU IN
STEADY NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THU PM INTO
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES. COLD AIR MORE ROBUST IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. 12Z
GFS IS BACK TO SHOWING ARRIVAL ON FRIDAY WHILE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. KEPT MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT
INLAND FROM GREAT LAKES WHEN THERE IS AT LEAST SOME AGREEMENT THAT
IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT. IF COLDER GFS WOULD VERIFY
FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...APPEARS THAT SUB H85 LAYER IS STILL TOO
WARM ENOUGH WITH WBZERO ABOVE 1KFT TO SUPPORT ADDING ANY RAIN/SNOW
MIX ATTM. TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50
DEGREES IN THE AFTN ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. LOW-MID 40S WILL BE COMMON
NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
TROUGHING ALOFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST BY NEXT SUNDAY TO END PRECIP
CHANCES AND RESULT IN SLIGHT WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THRU THIS EVNG AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES WITH CONTINUED RELATIVELY DRY SW FLOW ARND HI PRES IN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. STRENGTHENING LLJ TNGT AHEAD OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT
IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING/RADIATION INVRN WL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF LLWS. THERE ARE HINTS SOME LO CLDS MAY DVLP AS WELL...BUT
DRYNESS OF UPSTREAM AIRMASS SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL IS RATHER LO. SO
JUST ADDED SOME SCT LO CLDS AT THE TERMINALS FOR NOW. THE LLWS AND
LO CLD THREAT WL END EARLY ON MON BEHIND THE COLD FROPA...BUT SOME
GUSTY WINDS WL DVLP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WITH DRY AIR AT LEAST
INITIALLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE
THRU 12/18Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE W LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MON FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SINCE THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER LAKES LATE MON/MON NIGHT...
HAVE TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF THE GALE WARNINGS ISSUED
EARLIER. SINCE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ENHANCE
THE WSW WIND BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TO AT LEAST NEAR GALE
FORCE...ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE TIMING WERE
MADE FOR THAT AREA. SINCE THE PROGRESSION TO THE E OF THE SHARPER
PRES GRADIENT/STRONGER NW WINDS HAS SLOWED...EXTENDED THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRATION TIMES FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL WEAKER GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HI PRES RIDGE ARRIVES W-E ON TUE. WEAKER
W TO NW WINDS UNDER 25 KTS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU WED. A PAIR OF
LO PRES TROUGHS WILL PASS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT RIGHT NOW THE PRES
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TROUGHS LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO HOLD
WINDS UNDER 25 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-
003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ249-250-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ248-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ246-247.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT /4 AM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
410 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A GENERAL
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA ON THE NRN FLANK OF
UPR RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE PLAINS. AT
THE LLVLS...PERSISTENT WSW FLOW BTWN HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND
AREA OF LO PRES OVER SCENTRAL CANADA IS ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND DRY AIRMASS/AREA OF H85 TEMPS AOA 20C OVER MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL
CONUS INTO THE UPR LKS. THE COMBINATION OF PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INFLUX OF DRY AIR AND THE UNSEASONABLE H85
WARMTH IS RESULTING IN SOME RECORD/NEAR RECORD TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 70S AND EVEN THE 80S THIS AFTN AWAY FM LK MI MODERATION.
LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A POTENT SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL
FLOW IS MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES...RESULTING IN 12HR H5 HGT FALLS
UP TO 150M AND SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 40-50 KTS OVER MONTANA.
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON FCST SURGE OF LLVL MSTR
SHOWN BY SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS INTO THE UPR LKS TNGT AHEAD OF
COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV TO THE W AND THEN POPS/WINDS ON MON
AS POTENT SHRTWV NOW APRCHG THE NRN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPR LKS.
TNGT...THIS EVNG WL BE MOCLR WITH WARM AND DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING.
BUT OVERNGT AS UPR SHRTWV MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND INTO
NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z...ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT IS FCST
TO SWING THRU THE WRN CWA AND REACH THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 12Z.
DESPITE 12HR H5 HGT FALLS FCST UP 150-200M AND A BAND OF DPVA/H85-5
QVECTOR CNVGC...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE FROPA WL BE A DRY ONE
GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MSTR INFLOW. BUT SEVERAL OF THE SHORTER TERM
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z NAM...INDICATE STRENGTHENING LLVL SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WL ADVECT MORE LLVL MSTR INTO THE UPR LKS AND
BRING SOME LO CLDS. CONSIDERING THE WARMTH/DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS AND
STEADY WINDS THAT WOULD RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL/INCRS IN NEAR
SFC RH...FAVOR THE DRIER MODEL SCENARIOS THAT SHOW LOWER NEAR SFC
RH/LESS IN THE WAY OF LO CLDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...W WINDS
COULD GUST AS HI AS 25 TO 30 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW WITH INCRSG CAA/
INSTABILITY.
MON...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE SHRTWV AS A
SECOND JET STREAK CORE DIGS INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY AND
AMPLIFIES THE ACCOMPANYING UPR TROFFING. THIS JET CORE ALSO HAS
RESULTED IN A SHARPER TRAILING SECOND SFC COLD FNT IN MN...WITH THE
RESULT A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/LIGHTER SFC WINDS OVER UPR MI UNTIL
THAT SECOND FNT/TROF PASSES LATE ON MON OR EVEN MON EVNG. SINCE THE
LLVL WINDS WL BE WEAKER AND MORE BACKED TO THE SW AND H85 TEMPS DO
NOT FALL AS QUICKLY WITH A HINT OF AN H85 THERMAL RDG AHEAD OF THE
SECOND FNT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY...WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LESS
EXPOSED KEWEENAW WL BE WEAKER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTN. FOR THIS REASON...DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE WIND ADVY FOR
THAT AREA UNTIL 00Z TUE. DRY SLOTTING FOLLOWING THE MRNG COLD FROPA
WL GRDLY GIVE WAY TO MORE CLDS AS AREA OF HIER RH WITHIN DEEP CYC
FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF CLOSED LO TRACKING THRU ONTARIO OVERSPREADS
THE AREA. HI CHC/LIKELY POPS WL RETURN OVER THE W DURING THE AFTN
WITH THE CORE OF THE DEEPER MSTR IN ADVANCE OF THE TRAILING SECOND
COLD FNT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WL BE MUCH LOWER THAN TDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W HALF WHERE BACKWASH MSTR/CLDS WL ARRIVE EARLIER FOLLOWING
THE DRY SLOTTING...MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S WL STILL BE ABV NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
...STRONGEST WINDS DELAYED BUT STILL WINDY NEAR LK SUPERIOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVING ACROSS CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS
PROGRESSIVE ATTM...BUT SYSTEM SLOWS CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS STRONGER JET STREAK AT H25 DIGS FM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MAJORITY OF MODELS
HAVE LATCHED ON TO THIS MUCH SLOWER TREND WHICH DELAYS STRONGEST
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RESULTING ONSET OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
NEAR LK SUPERIOR UNTIL MONDAY EVENING AT THE EARLIEST. NO REAL
CHANGE TO EXPECTED STRENGTH OF WINDS...JUST THE TIMING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM 3-8C /LOWEST WEST/ AT 21Z ON
MONDAY DOWN TO -2C TO 3C /LOWEST EAST/ AT 21Z ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
WINDS OF 35-45 KTS IN THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN GALES OVER LK
SUPERIOR AND WINDS NEARING ADVISORY LEVEL AT SHORELINE AREAS OF
KEWEENAW AND EVENTUALLY OVER ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES. STRONGEST
WINDS ON KEWEENAW WOULD BE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE EAST CWA WOULD NOT SEE STRONGER WINDS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT LASTING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
COORD WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER TO DELAY START OF WIND ADVISORY
ON KEWEENAW 00Z TUE THROUGH 12Z TUE.
GIVEN SLOWER TREND WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LINGERED HIGHER POPS
LONGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS STILL FEATURED OVER EAST
CWA ALONG TRACK OF SMALLER SHORTWAVE CROSSING LK SUPERIOR AND ALSO
JUST AHEAD OF SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE
IN THE EVENING. HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST INTERIOR SHOULD ALSO SEE THE
MOST SHOWERS AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS WITH NNW WINDS PROVIDING
UPSLOPE FLOW AND SINCE THERE IS SUFFICIENT OVER WATER INSTABILITY AS
DELTA T/S ARE OVER 8C. SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE BECOMES MUCH
SHALLOWER BY 12Z SO IT WILL TURN INTO MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT
SETUP. H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C OR AS LOW AS -2C WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN LEFTOVER CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH
IN WAY OF RAIN. MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD BE FINISHED UP BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. THERMAL TROUGH STILL IN THE AREA AND
WINDS COMING OFF LK SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY IN
THE 40S NORTH AND IN THE LOW-MID 50S SCNTRL.
REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMINATED BY SERIES OF TROUGHS DROPPING ACROSS
UPPER GREAT LAKES WED INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS TROUGH ALOFT PERSISTS
DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. LEAD SHORTWAVE AND
SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST FORCING AND LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF UPR MICHIGAN. SOUNDINGS
SHOWED FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE
SHOWERY. TEMPS MAY BOUNCE BACK SOME COMPARED TO THE TUE CHILL...BUT
READINGS IN THE AFTN COULD FALL A FEW DEGREES NEAR LK SUPERIOR ONCE
WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE. SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER THROUGH THU IN
STEADY NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THU PM INTO
THU NIGHT AHEAD OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES. COLD AIR MORE ROBUST IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
LOW. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES. 12Z
GFS IS BACK TO SHOWING ARRIVAL ON FRIDAY WHILE ECMWF WAITS UNTIL FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. KEPT MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT
INLAND FROM GREAT LAKES WHEN THERE IS AT LEAST SOME AGREEMENT THAT
IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT. IF COLDER GFS WOULD VERIFY
FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...APPEARS THAT SUB H85 LAYER IS STILL TOO
WARM ENOUGH WITH WBZERO ABOVE 1KFT TO SUPPORT ADDING ANY RAIN/SNOW
MIX ATTM. TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50
DEGREES IN THE AFTN ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. LOW-MID 40S WILL BE COMMON
NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
TROUGHING ALOFT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST BY NEXT SUNDAY TO END PRECIP
CHANCES AND RESULT IN SLIGHT WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THRU THIS EVNG AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES WITH CONTINUED RELATIVELY DRY SW FLOW ARND HI PRES IN THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. STRENGTHENING LLJ TNGT AHEAD OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT
IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING/RADIATION INVRN WL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF LLWS. THERE ARE HINTS SOME LO CLDS MAY DVLP AS WELL...BUT
DRYNESS OF UPSTREAM AIRMASS SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL IS RATHER LO. SO
JUST ADDED SOME SCT LO CLDS AT THE TERMINALS FOR NOW. THE LLWS AND
LO CLD THREAT WL END EARLY ON MON BEHIND THE COLD FROPA...BUT SOME
GUSTY WINDS WL DVLP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WITH DRY AIR AT LEAST
INITIALLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE
THRU 12/18Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2015
SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE W LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MON FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SINCE THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER LAKES LATE MON/MON NIGHT...
HAVE TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF THE GALE WARNINGS ISSUED
EARLIER. SINCE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ENHANCE
THE WSW WIND BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT TO AT LEAST NEAR GALE
FORCE...ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES TO THE HEADLINE TIMING WERE
MADE FOR THAT AREA. SINCE THE PROGRESSION TO THE E OF THE SHARPER
PRES GRADIENT/STRONGER NW WINDS HAS SLOWED...EXTENDED THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRATION TIMES FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL WEAKER GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING HI PRES RIDGE ARRIVES W-E ON TUE. WEAKER
W TO NW WINDS UNDER 25 KTS WILL THEN PREVAIL THRU WED. A PAIR OF
LO PRES TROUGHS WILL PASS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT RIGHT NOW THE PRES
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TROUGHS LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO HOLD
WINDS UNDER 25 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-
003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ265.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ246>248-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ249>251.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT /4 AM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-240>242.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ263.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ221-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1254 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS SLIGHTLY DELAYED...WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO GET SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN EXPECTED...AND RAISED MAX
TEMPS 1F-3F. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE WIND POTENTIAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
WIND HEADLINES ARE THE MAJOR CONCERN. THE SAME GENERAL IDEAS
REMAIN...STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS (WITH GUSTS NEAR
WARNING CRITERIA). THEN...WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT OR TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
THE 12Z NAM IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE SFC LOW BY 12Z
MONDAY...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THE UPPER
WAVE IS EVOLVING WITHIN. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS HOW TO HANDLE THIS
EVENT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND DOUBLE BARREL NATURE (TWO PERIODS
OF WARNING POTENTIAL WITH A LULL IN BETWEEN).
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE RAP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS INDICATING INCREASING 925MB WIND SPEEDS BY 00Z TO
AROUND 50-55 KNOTS AS IT DEVELOPS A 925MB CIRCULATION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. IT IS A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITHIN THAT THERMAL GRADIENT IS POSSIBLE. FOR THIS
REASON...THINK IT IS BEST TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH INTO THE
VALLEY FOR THIS EVENING AT LEAST. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS WATCH
INTO MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND AND POSSIBLE
WARNING CRITERIA MONDAY MORNING.
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING AS CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED ENOUGH FOR STRONGER WINDS MONDAY MORNING IN THIS
LOCATION...IF NOT THIS AFTERNOON FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND WINDS THROUGH MONDAY ARE THE MAIN SHORT TERM
CONCERNS.
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS ON TAP AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT
WILL PUSH INTO THE N RRV/DEVILS LAKE BASIN BY MID DAY...AND EXIT
NW MN BY EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS
IS ALSO EXPECTED. RECORD HIGHS TODAY INCLUDE 81 AT NWS FGF...82
AT GFK AIRPORT...AND 85 AT FARGO. THE WARMEST TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL RRV INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...WITH A
TONGUE OF +23C 850 MB TEMPS OVER THIS AREA BY 18Z AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. IT CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE SOME SPOTS IN THE S RRV/WC MN
COULD TOUCH 9O.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WINDS WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTENSE UPPER WAVE THAT WILL DIG INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A STRONG SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH 850 MB WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...SHOULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY RRV WESTWARD. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER SE ND/WC MN THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS/WARM TEMPS. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.
CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT WINDS MAY DECREASE A BIT DURING THE
EVENING AFTER THE FIRST SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION...BEFORE A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
WAVE PASSES AND THE SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WITH 850 MB WINDS
INCREASING ABOVE 50 KTS...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...WIND GUSTS
WELL OVER 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE MAIN DOWNSIDE FOR HIGH
WINDS WOULD BE TIME OF DAY...BUT ASSUMING STRONG ENOUGH COLD
ADVECTION...HIGHER GUSTS LOOK PLAUSIBLE. STRONG WINDS...AT LEAST
INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...LIKELY WILL SPREAD INTO THE RRV AND
NW MN LATER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NOW WEST
OF THE RRV. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A POSSIBLE
PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH THE INITIAL COLD SURGE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.
OTHERWISE...SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER WAVE MAINLY ACROSS NE ND AND NW MN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. HIGHS WILL AROUND 30 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
AREAS REMAINING IN THE 40S...ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUDS
WILL LINGER LONGER.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
WINDS WILL DECREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER RETURNING
INTO MID-WEEK UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REBOUND
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S IN MOST AREAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
CLOSER TO TYPICAL MID OCTOBER LEVELS. AREA WILL BE IN WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH
BUT MOISTURE IS SCANT AND ANY SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH OVER ONTARIO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
FAIR SKIES AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CHANGE
RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT CAVOK CONDITIONS ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH BRISK
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AFT 21Z...MOVING
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY CORE BY 00Z. WIND SPEEDS COULD GUST INTO
THE 40-50KT RANGE BRIEFLY BEFORE SETTLING BACK. A SECOND SHOT WITH
LONGER DURATION HIGH WINDS AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE FA AFT 11Z...SHIFTING INTO
NORTHCENTRAL MN AFT 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION TO UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE 20-
25 PERCENT RANGE IN THIS AREA.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-049-052-053.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT MONDAY
FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.
MN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGING STRONG/GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY SHOWS JUST TAPPING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA
IN A SMALL PART OF SW OK AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE ALREADY
SHOWING ON THE OK MESONET. THE FACTOR TO WATCH WILL BE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. THE SURFACE IS QUITE MOIST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE,
BUT MIXING WILL BRING THE RH DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
MENTIONED AREAS...JUST SOME PARTS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 20. GRIDS
WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS SLIGHTLY DRIER SCENARIO, OTHERWISE
LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE FOR TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 91 61 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
HOBART OK 95 57 84 47 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 97 65 89 51 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 92 53 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 93 59 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 91 68 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ009-014>017-021>024-027-033>039-044-045.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ014-016-
021>023-033>038-044.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ033-036.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ083>090.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ083>086.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-
088.
&&
$$
09/25/25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1245 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
HIGH WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. INHERITED
HEADLINES LOOK GOOD AS DEER CREEK HAS SEEN CONSISTENT GUSTS AT OR
ABOVE 60 MPH SINCE 14Z. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD 55-65 KT H7 FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BETWEEN RAWLINS
AND CHEYENNE...AS WELL AS DRY ADIABATIC SURFACE-650 MILLIBAR LAPSE
RATES. WHILE THE BEST DOWNWARD OMEGA APPEARS TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...A STRONG GJT-CYS PRESSURE GRADIENT
AROUND 10 MILLIBARS IS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS LOCALLY. WE JUST
HIT 50 KTS AT KCYS WITH THE INITIAL MIXING...AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW DEEP MIXING WITH 50 KTS UPSTAIRS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AFTERNOON. WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXISTING TO THE WEST WITH
EVEN BETTER VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS...ADDED REMAINING AREAS FROM
CHEYENNE TO RAWLINS TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING. OPTED TO INCLUDE
NIOBRARA COUNTY AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WESTERN NE
PANHANDLE FOR A POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED
PACKAGE WILL BE SENT SHORTLY TO REFLECT CHANGES TO HAZARDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
WINDY AND DRY DAY AHEAD FOR THE REGION. WITH THE LLVL GRADIENT
INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY (850MB CAG-CPR GRADIENT IS AROUND 50)
...WIND GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH ARE BEING OBSERVED AT ARLINGTON. UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD
INCREASE IN WINDS LATER TODAY IS CURRENTLY OVER IDAHO. IT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO MONTANA AND THEN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS
EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR
TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON. 700MB FLOW IS STILL PROGGED TO BE 50-55
KTS FROM NORTHERN CARBON COUNTY EASTWARD INTO CONVERSE/NIOBRARA
COUNTIES. SINCE THE FLOW ALOFT IS STRONGER ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES...WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXTEND HIGH WIND WARNING TO
THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (IN
PARTICULAR THE NORTHERN HALF)...HOWEVER THE MET GUIDANCE WAS QUITE
A BIT LOWER THAN THE MAV. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AND LET THE DAY
SHIFT MONITOR. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF AFTER 00Z AS THE FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE OTHER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WENT ON THE DRY SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS AS THE
GOOD MIXING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TRANSPORT DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE
SFC. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE 14-18 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH RH IS ONLY MARGINALLY CRITICAL...THE STRONG WINDS THOUGH
THE AFTERNOON WOULD RESULT IN VERY FAST FIRE SPREAD IN THE CURED
GRASSES SHOULD WE GET A FIRE START. THUS...UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING AND EXTENDED IT TO ZONES 303 AND 308 TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.
MONDAY WILL SEE A DROP OF 15-20 DEGREES BEHIND THE FROPA. THERE
WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND. WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE MIN RH VALUES
WILL STILL FALL TO 15-20 PERCENT. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR CARBON COUNTY ON
MONDAY AFTN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH...BUT IT IS
STILL A MARGINAL EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A QUIET AND BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE OVER WYOMING AND THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY MINOR CONCERN IS THE PLACEMENT OF A SHALLOW SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS
FEATURE AS THE GFS SHOWS THIS FRONT MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...GEM...AND ENSEMBLES. THEREFORE...DID NOT
LOWER TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE ECMWF AND GEM SUGGESTS AT THIS
TIME. REGARDLESS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO LOWER INTO THE
60S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTER A RELATIVELY WARM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MODELS INDICATING THE JET STREAM REMAINING TOO FAR NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN AT THIS
TIME...WITH PERHAPS BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE ON TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME RELATIVELY
LIGHT BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AND THEN GRADUALLY VEER INTO THE EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF DO SHOW AN UNORGANIZED UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL THROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MAY ABSORB THIS ENERGY AS IT DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG
WEST COAST. INCREASED POP A BIT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR
DAYTIME RAIN SHOWERS AS THE WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH 30 TO 40 KTS ACROSS THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WILL LIKELY SEE MODERATE TURBULENCE OVER THE
REGION AS WELL DUE TO MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL EASE
WINDS TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS SOME BLOWING
DUST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2015
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WINDS
WILL REALLY INCREASE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 15-20 PERCENT. WITH GRASSES
COMPLETELY CURED...THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN EXTREMELY FAST
FIRE SPREAD SHOULD ANY FIRE START. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. AN
ELEVATED FIRE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER CARBON COUNTY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301>303-
308>310.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ101-102-
104>107-109-110-115>118.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ311>313.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RJM
FIRE WEATHER...ZF