Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/10/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
917 PM MST WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTH INTO MEXICO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LEAVING THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES UNDER A
DRIER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY PERIODIC
THICKER CLOUD COVER. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS TAPERED OFF WITH ONLY A
BATCH OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LEFT TO DRIFT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AND WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
WARMING TREND AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH LESS AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS THAN WHAT WE HAD TODAY. HIGHS THURSDAY CLIMB TO NORMAL FOR
THE PHOENIX AREA...HIGHER FURTHER WEST...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING
FRIDAY. IN FACT SOME SPOTS IN SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK AGAIN. THERE WILL BE SOME
MINOR EASTERLY BREEZINESS THURSDAY AS WELL. MADE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO DECREASE POPS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR REMAINDER
OF EVENING...LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DROPPING THEM
ALTOGETHER OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 210 PM...
AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD CORE LOW
HAS TRANSLATED INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENVELOPING SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR
WESTERN ARIZONA. A COMPACT PV ANOMALY/VORTICITY CENTER IMMEDIATELY
UNDER THE COLD CORE (-15C AT H5) WAS FORCING WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT AROUND AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WERE SHIFTING EAST IN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY REMAINED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA.
NEVERTHELESS...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT ASCENT ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD CORE STILL EXISTED OVER MUCH OF GILA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL ROTATE ABOUT
THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING...AND IT IS
STILL CONCEIVABLY SOME SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
COULD ALSO SWING BACK WESTWARD TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS (I.E. HRRR AND WRF-NMM CORES) SUPPORT THIS IDEA
THOUGH AREAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE METRO...RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD CORE
LOW SINKING FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BECOMING DISASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERALL NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS...EAST PACIFIC RIDGING WILL FOLD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SUBSIDENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN A
REX-TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL STEADILY INCREASE WITH
H5 READINGS APPROACHING 590DM BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY CONDUCIVE TO DEEP MIXING AND
SEASONALLY EXCEPTIONAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS
(PHOENIX RECORD HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD ARE 100F-105F...AND FORECASTS
FALL NEARLY 10F BELOW THESE RECORDS). THUS...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH INTO AN ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY...MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING MAY
BE SOMEWHAT MUTED.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ALL THREE GLOBAL MODEL SUITES...AND MANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GEM ALL SLOWLY RETROGRADE THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS NW MEXICO BACK INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA.
EVENTUALLY...THE COLD COLD IS FORECAST TO SWING BACK NORTH TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH MORE SWLY TRAJECTORIES
ALOFT...AND MODELS WARM TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
RANGE. BEYOND TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE
RETURN TO A WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN AS THE UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE INLAND...HOWEVER SPREAD AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
GROWS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY YIELDING HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS OF 04Z WITH NORTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAS TAPERED OFF. THE LOW WILL SAG SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MAINTAINING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE
FAVORING NORTHEAST AND EAST DIRECTIONS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
ANTICIPATE LESS CUMULUS THURSDAY THAN WHAT WE HAD EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH
DAY WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY RETURNING INCREASED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICTS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/PERCHA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/NOLTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
314 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
...SLIGHTLY COOLER TOMORROW...
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER TODAY ACROSS SE CO. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...RIGHT AROUND 80 DEGREES AT KPUB OR
NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HAVE ALREADY REDUCED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LOW POPS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ARE IN JEOPARDY...WITH NO SIGN OF CONVECTION THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND RATON
AND SPANISH PEAKS REGION. THIS IS WHERE ENHANCED CU FIELD HAS BUILT
UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING AN ISOLD
SHOWER OR STORM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NRN CO AND SHOULD REACH THE PALMER DVD AND
THE REST OF SE CO AFTER 00Z. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
NAM...WHICH SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THE
HIGHER RES HRRR AND WRF MODELS...WHICH SHOW FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER RES SOLUTIONS
AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS AND ERN MTS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGINS OVER TELLER COUNTY AND THE PIKES PEAK
REGION...THEN SHIFT SWD WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...CLEARING THE
SRN ZONES BY 12Z OR SO. LOOKS MAINLY TO BE STRATIFORM PRECIP...SO
ANY LTG WITH STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLD AT BEST.
TOMORROW...AFTER EARLY MORNING STRATUS CLEARS...WILL BE ANOTHER DRY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR THE PLAINS. THE NAM
STILL SHOWS SOME SPOTTY AFTERNOON QPF OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPING THINGS
DRY ACROSS SE CO. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STRONGLY TO THE WEST
AND NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES EVIDENT IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL
KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW...AND THIS CAN BE REEVALUATED BY LATER
SHIFTS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING +10C OR HIGHER. ON
SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH SUNDAY BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER. ON SUNDAY GRIDS HAVE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ALS/75...COS/81...PUB/88.
RECORDS ARE....ALS/78...COS/82...PUB/89.
.MONDAY...WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...RESULTING IN SOME COOLING ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE
PLAINS. FORECAST HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THE PLAINS RISE INTO THE
80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH ARE 10F OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL. BY THURSDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING EASTWARD. SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD REACH WESTERN COLORADO...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED POPS TO THE SAN JUANS AND SAWATCH RANGE. SYSTEM WILL BE
MILD SO ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
--PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
CONSENSUS FROM THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT MVFR
STRATUS DECK WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL ADD
THIS TO THE TAFS FOR KPUB AND KCOS FOR THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY
STRONG OR PROLONGED UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AFTER SHIFTING TO THE N-NE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT...WHICH LOOKS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO SE CO FROM 00Z THROUGH
03Z OR SO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KALS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1017 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD OUR AREA TONIGHT. IR SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASING OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SHOWERS OVER THE TAMPA AREA.
00Z HRRR HINTING AT SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE GULF.
ADDITIONALLY...LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS GREATER INSTABILITY ALONG A SW
TO NE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FL BIG BEND INTO THE SE GEORGIA. ANY
WEAK OUTFLOWS OR COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HEADING INTO LATE MORNING OVER
THE INTERIOR FL COUNTIES. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE THE
FRONT PUSHING IN TOMORROW FROM THE NW. THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING
BEHIND THE FRONT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN SOME MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY AFTERNOON WITH OTHERS
WAITING UNTIL EVENING TO CLEAR THINGS OUT. CONFIDENCE WILL LIKELY
INCREASE WITH THE MIDNIGHT PACKAGE ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY. WHILE THE CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE LOW ON SATURDAY...THE BEST CHANCE AS THE FRONT
PASSES WILL BE AT THE KSSI TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WILL ROTATE FROM EAST TO SOUTH BY MORNING
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST WITH A PASSING FRONT ON SATURDAY
EVENING. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 68 83 61 76 / 40 50 10 10
SSI 70 81 66 74 / 30 50 20 10
JAX 68 83 64 77 / 30 40 20 10
SGJ 71 82 67 78 / 30 40 20 20
GNV 69 85 64 82 / 40 40 10 10
OCF 70 86 65 83 / 30 40 10 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CLAY-COASTAL
DUVAL-FLAGLER-INLAND DUVAL-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WALSH/CORDERO/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
309 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SHOWS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS AMPLIFICATION IS THE RESULT OF A HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED OF
NW MEXICO. SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE PLUME CIRCLES AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY.
THIS PLUME IS STILL WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING OUR UPPER
LEVELS ON THE DRY SIDE. THIS DRIER AIR AND INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WAS SAMPLED WELL THIS MORNING WITH THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING
WITH A DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION JUST BELOW 700MB...AND ANOTHER
JUST SHY OF 500MB. THIS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 500MB IS GOING
TO A POTENTIAL OBSTACLE TO SOME UPDRAFTS THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HOLD BACK AT LEAST SOME OF THE EXPECTED
DIURNAL SEA-BREEZE STORM POTENTIAL.
AT THE SURFACE...REGION FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CAROLINAS...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THE RESULTING GENERAL FLOW IS LIGHT EASTERLY...ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT IS LIGHT ENOUGH THAT IT HAS ALLOWED A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE
TO DEVELOP AND TURN WINDS ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FEEL INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL BE MORE LIKE
SUMMER...AS DEWPOINTS ARE UP A BIT...AND WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING SEA-BREEZE. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING AS ROBUST
IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AS WE WOULD SEE DURING THE SUMMER
MONTHS...BUT THE SAME PROCESSES ARE TAKING PLACE. AS MENTIONED IN
THE SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A DECENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 500MB
WHICH DOES APPEAR TO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF DEEP
CONVECTION...BUT ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE GAINING MOMENTUM NOW...AND
THE CURRENT FORECAST COVERAGES OF RAIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS LOOK
APPROPRIATE.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TEND TO MIGRATE OFF
THE COAST AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY OVER THE LAND MASS...WITH
ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. SEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
RANGING BY SUNRISE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE..TO
THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...
ANOTHER MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL TO THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS LESSENING OF THE
RIDGE INFLUENCE MAY ALLOW FOR MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE
OF DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WE MAY BE MORE ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THAN WE ARE TODAY...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ALSO LOOKS MORE UNIFORM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
CURRENT POPS RANGE FROM AROUND 30% AT THE BEACHES TO 40-50%
INLAND. SIMILAR TO ANY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS LATE FRIDAY...SHOULD JUST BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PASSING STORM. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE LOCALIZED AND
BRIEF IN NATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH
THE MID 80S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH.
HAVE A GREAT EVENING EVERYONE...AND WATCH OUT FOR THOSE SCATTERED
LATE DAY STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SWING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL HELP FOSTER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY...BRINGING IN A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS BY
SUNDAY. THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES BY
SUNDAY MORNING...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE NOTICEABLY
DRIER...HOLDING RAIN CHANCES TO 20-30 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
LOW RAIN CHANCES AND MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S...WARMING
UP TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHILE A WEAK TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF CUBA BY
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST.
&&
AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLE SUMMER...WITH SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING.
SOME PATCHY MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AT TERMINALS SUCH AS KLAL/KPGD...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST. ANY EARLY FOG DISSIPATES FOLLOWED BY
GENERAL VFR ON FRIDAY. AGAIN SCT STORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS
OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST BY LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS MORE RESEMBLING SUMMER WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY SHIFTING WIND TO THE NORTH AND
THEN QUICKLY NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE
ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PREVENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM FALLING BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 74 85 74 85 / 30 40 20 30
FMY 73 88 74 87 / 30 50 20 40
GIF 72 87 72 86 / 20 50 20 50
SRQ 73 83 72 86 / 30 30 20 30
BKV 71 85 70 86 / 20 50 30 30
SPG 75 85 76 85 / 30 30 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...FLEMING
MARINE...MROCZKA/WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1111 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SHOWS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS AMPLIFICATION IS THE RESULT OF A HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED OF
NW MEXICO. SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE PLUME CIRCLES AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION INTO THE SOUTHERN MS
VALLEY. THIS PLUME IS STILL WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING OUR
UPPER LEVELS ON THE DRY SIDE. THIS DRIER AIR AND INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WAS SAMPLED WELL THIS MORNING WITH THE 12Z KTBW
SOUNDING WITH A DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION JUST BELOW
700MB...AND ANOTHER JUST SHY OF 500MB. THIS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
NEAR 500MB IS GOING TO A POTENTIAL OBSTACLE TO UPDRAFTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HOLD BACK SOME OF THE EXPECTED DIURNAL SEA-
BREEZE STORM POTENTIAL...OR AT LEAST DELAY THE ONSET UNTIL PEAK
HEATING IS REACHED AFTER 18-19Z.
BELOW 700MB WE SEE A GREATER MOISTURE PROFILE AND THIS IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME 5-8KFT CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS TO PRESENT THE FORECAST AS A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THESE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
TIME AS MIXING TAKES PLACE AND LOWER BASE CUMULUS BUILD INTO THAT
LEVEL.
AT THE SURFACE...REGION FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CAROLINAS...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THE RESULTING GENERAL FLOW IS LIGHT EASTERLY...ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT IS LIGHT ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD ALLOW A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE
TO DEVELOP AND TURN WINDS ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THINGS ARE QUIET ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE OF
THE SUNCOAST...MAINLY BEYOND 30NM FROM SHORE. JUST KEEP THESE
STORMS IN MIND IF HEADING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AT LEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FEEL THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE MORE LIKE SUMMER...AS DEWPOINTS
ARE UP A BIT...AND EVENTUALLY WE SHOULD BE SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
SEA-BREEZE. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING AS ROBUST IN TERMS OF
CONVECTION AS WE WOULD SEE DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS...BUT THE SAME
PROCESSES SHOULD BE TAKING PLACE. AS MENTIONED IN THE
SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A DECENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 500MB
WHICH LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST DELAY THE ONSET OF DEEP
CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON (PEAK HEATING)...AND MAY BE
ENOUGH TO DECREASE THE OVERALL COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ALL THE HIRES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST SOME
STORMS WILL GET GOING...SO NOT GOING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE RAIN CHANCES OR TIMING QUITE YET. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE A GENERAL 30-50% COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-4...AND 20-30% COVERAGE
FURTHER NORTH. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCALLY DERIVED
HIRES CONSENSUS NEIGHBORHOOD RAIN CHANCES.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TEND TO MIGRATE OFF
THE COAST AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY OVER THE LAND MASS...WITH
ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. SEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
RANGING BY SUNRISE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE..TO
THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...
ANOTHER MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL TO THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS LESSENING OF THE
RIDGE INFLUENCE MAY ALLOW FOR MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE
OF DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WE MAY BE MORE ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THAN WE ARE TODAY...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ALSO LOOKS MORE UNIFORM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
CURRENT POPS RANGE FROM AROUND 30% AT THE BEACHES TO 40-50%
INLAND. UNLESS THE 12Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS COMES IN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAKING ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THIS
FORECAST. SIMILAR TO ANY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS LATE FRIDAY...SHOULD JUST BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PASSING STORM. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE LOCALIZED AND
BRIEF IN NATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH
THE MID 80S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH.
HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR THURSDAY...AND WATCH OUT FOR THOSE
ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
SATURDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
ON SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH
FLORIDA. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE CLOSED LOW AND
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
MEANDER SLOWLY NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH PLEASANT DRY AND
DELIGHTFUL MID OCTOBER WEATHER EXPECTED DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...WITH THIS FRONT SAGGING INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THIS NEXT FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES WITH
JUST A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLE SUMMER...WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z. THESE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. SOME
PATCHY MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT
TERMINALS SUCH AS KLAL/KPGD...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
ARE FORECAST. ANY EARLY FOG DISSIPATES FOLLOWED BY GENERAL VFR ON
FRIDAY. AGAIN SCT STORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS
OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST BY LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS MORE RESEMBLING SUMMER WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY SHIFTING WIND TO THE NORTH AND
THEN QUICKLY NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE
ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PREVENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM FALLING BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 74 87 74 / 40 30 40 20
FMY 88 74 89 74 / 50 30 50 20
GIF 88 72 88 71 / 40 20 50 20
SRQ 86 74 87 73 / 40 30 30 30
BKV 87 71 88 69 / 30 20 50 20
SPG 86 75 87 75 / 40 30 30 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT...HUBBARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
511 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL/NWRN
IN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INCREASING SLWY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. AS OF 1PM CDT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO 2
WHILE TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT UN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F FOR THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA. THE BIGGER
QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING
INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND +12C OVER
THE REGION...WHILE THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS ARND 500 J/KG
OF CAPE INVOF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA/NWRN MO.
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INITIALIZATION AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ON
TRACK...SO...HAVE TRENDED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT STEADILY TRACKS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PCPN REACHING THE RFD AREA BTWN 3-
5PM AND THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA ARND 5-6PM WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN OF ARND 1 TO 2
HRS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO...POSSIBLY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLD
SHRA. AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...GIVING THE LIMITED DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AND NO REASON TO SEE WHY THERE WOULD BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT TS WITH THE
SHRA...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SOME TS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING
WILL BE LOCATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN
INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 05-06Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME TRAILING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY DURG THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VEER TO NLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 3 MB/3 HR AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE TRUE COOLER AIR WILL NOT
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL WARMING WILL BE
LESS THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FOR COMPARISON...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORNING LOW
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ARND 30 DEGREES...WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES AT
THE MOST.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
233 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A GOOD WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SATURDAY...AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...AS THIS
SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTS ITSELF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 925 AND 850 MB ARE PROGGED
TO REACH UP AROUND 18-19 DEGREES C AND 15-16 DEGREES C BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
A EVEN A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SHIFT OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY
MONDAY...AND AS IT DOES SO...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE DECENTLY MILD ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE COOLER AIRMASS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN REACH INTO THE 70S...BEFORE CONDITIONS COOL DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...BUT SEASONAL AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* LINE OF SHRA AND SOME ISOLATED TSRA THIS EVENING...SHORT
DURATION.
* WINDS TURNING FROM SW TO NW THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
* LOW CIGS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
JUST SOME BRIEF TWEAKS TO TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA LINE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST TRENDS ARE ON
TRACK. OPTED TO LEAVE 6SM VSBY WITH SHRA TO SUGGEST MORE
SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ALSO AM NOT SURE
CIGS WILL GET QUITE AS LOW AS 3500-4000 FT BUT BELIEVE THAT WOULD
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT REGARDLESS. MORE LIKELY MIGHT BE AROUND 5000FT
AS PER MOST UPSTREAM OBS.
DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF KMSP OVER WESTERN WI AT MIDDAY...
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS IOWA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING MODESTLY GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
EASTERN WI/LM AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTAL
TROUGH. WINDS 220-240 DEG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUTS
NEAR 20 KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING
NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
ROUGHLY 02Z AT RFD...03-04Z ACROSS CHI TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME
NORTH AND BREEZY EARLY FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY JUST PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD INTO AREA TOWARD
EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED VERY PERSISTENT IN DEPICTING
A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING RFD
BY 21-22Z...AND CHICAGO TERMINALS BY ROUGHLY 23Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY THOUGH
LIKELY ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE LINE
GIVEN TOPS 300-350. THOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LOW...HAVE
INDICATED A VCTS IN TERMINALS TO CONVEY THE PICTURE.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SHRA/TSRA TRENDS THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH ON MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WIND.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... VFR. BREEZY SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS TURNING BREEZY NW.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BREEZY NW.
&&
.MARINE...
312 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW.
OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE LAKE LATTER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. WITH THESE STRONG
WINDS...EXPECT WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO INCREASE UP
CLOSE TO 10 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD...COVING
THIS PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES WELL THROUGH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 30 KT APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD BET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...A
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW MOVING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE HUDSON BAY...WILL SHIFT OVER THE LAKE. A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY MONDAY EVENING.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...5 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
312 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL/NWRN
IN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INCREASING SLWY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. AS OF 1PM CDT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO 2
WHILE TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT UN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F FOR THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA. THE BIGGER
QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING
INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND +12C OVER
THE REGION...WHILE THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS ARND 500 J/KG
OF CAPE INVOF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA/NWRN MO.
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INITIALIZATION AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ON
TRACK...SO...HAVE TRENDED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT STEADILY TRACKS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PCPN REACHING THE RFD AREA BTWN 3-
5PM AND THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA ARND 5-6PM WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN OF ARND 1 TO 2
HRS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO...POSSIBLY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLD
SHRA. AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...GIVING THE LIMITED DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AND NO REASON TO SEE WHY THERE WOULD BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT TS WITH THE
SHRA...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SOME TS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING
WILL BE LOCATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN
INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 05-06Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME TRAILING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY DURG THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VEER TO NLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 3 MB/3 HR AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE TRUE COOLER AIR WILL NOT
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL WARMING WILL BE
LESS THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FOR COMPARISON...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORNING LOW
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ARND 30 DEGREES...WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES AT
THE MOST.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
233 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A GOOD WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SATURDAY...AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...AS THIS
SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTS ITSELF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 925 AND 850 MB ARE PROGGED
TO REACH UP AROUND 18-19 DEGREES C AND 15-16 DEGREES C BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
A EVEN A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SHIFT OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY
MONDAY...AND AS IT DOES SO...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE DECENTLY MILD ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE COOLER AIRMASS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN REACH INTO THE 70S...BEFORE CONDITIONS COOL DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...BUT SEASONAL AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTN.
* TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
* TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER THIS EVE.
* LOW CIGS/MVFR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF KMSP OVER WESTERN WI AT MIDDAY...
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS IOWA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING MODESTLY GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
EASTERN WI/LM AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTAL
TROUGH. WINDS 220-240 DEG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUTS
NEAR 20 KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING
NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
ROUGHLY 02Z AT RFD...03-04Z ACROSS CHI TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME
NORTH AND BREEZY EARLY FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY JUST PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD INTO AREA TOWARD
EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED VERY PERSISTENT IN DEPICTING
A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING RFD
BY 21-22Z...AND CHICAGO TERMINALS BY ROUGHLY 23Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY THOUGH
LIKELY ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE LINE
GIVEN TOPS 300-350. THOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LOW...HAVE
INDICATED A VCTS IN TERMINALS TO CONVEY THE PICTURE.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH IN SHRA TIMING...MEDIUM-LOW IN TSRA COVERAGE.
* HIGH IN MVFR CIG TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WIND.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... VFR. BREEZY SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS TURNING BREEZY NW.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BREEZY NW.
&&
.MARINE...
312 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW.
OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE LAKE LATTER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. WITH THESE STRONG
WINDS...EXPECT WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO INCREASE UP
CLOSE TO 10 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD...COVING
THIS PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES WELL THROUGH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 30 KT APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD BET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...A
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW MOVING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE HUDSON BAY...WILL SHIFT OVER THE LAKE. A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY MONDAY EVENING.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...5 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
309 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
Cold front approaching the western border of Illinois this afternoon
and will be the main story in the short range as the eastern half of
the CONUS is dominated by quasi zonal flow aloft. Winds shifting to
more northwesterly behind the boundary and the pressure gradient is
weak, but enough to keep it a little breezy in the overnight hours.
Mostly cloudy, with some scattered showers and thunderstorms before
midnight. Since most of the showers will require at least a little
bit of an assist from the heat of the day, after sunset, the showers
should slowly lose coverage and intensity. Overnight lows drop into
the lower 50s for most areas NW of the Illinois River Valley... and
areas south of I-70 staying warmer under more persistent cloud cover
and a slower moving front in the early morning hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
By early Friday morning, the cold front will have progressed near I-
70. The shortwave that will be fueling the showers early Friday
along the front is approaching from South Dakota/N Nebraska. The
relatively weak wave will have limited low level moisture and
instability to work with, so we reduced the chance PoPs in our
southeast to slight chance 20%. We also limited the area to S of I-
70 and mainly in the morning.
Cool high pressure will be arriving Friday afternoon behind the cold
front. Breezy north winds of 10 to 20 mph will usher in 850 mb temps
down around 4C. High temps on Friday will be about 15 deg cooler
than Thurs, with readings mainly in the mid 60s. The wind add some
fall chill to the air, along with a lack of sunshine for most of the
day.
The cool conditions will continue on Saturday as the surface ridge
axis and cold pool pass across and eventually southeast of Illinois.
Highs will reach into the upper 60s with the help of sunshine, and
lighter winds. On Sunday, the surface ridge will pull farther away
to the east, setting the stage for southerly return flow and a
warming trend. Highs will climb well above normal on Sunday, with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80. The warmer temps will be west
of I-55, where the mid-level thermal ridge will enter Illinois on
Sunday.
The next cold front is projected to push across Illinois early
Monday morning. It will be moisture starved over Illinois, with the
best forcing for precip remaining closer to the surface low in N
Wisconsin and Michigan. The front appears to get more support from
the heat of the day in the afternoon over Indiana, and we kept a
narrow channel of slight chance PoPs east of Champaign to Mattoon.
A brief cool down will occur behind that front, with highs on
Tuesday around 70. The GFS quickly brings another cold front across
IL Tuesday night, and a small surface low and cold front into NW IL
Wed night/Thurs. The ECMWF keeps high pressure in place across IL
until a low arrives Thursday afternoon. Will keep a dry forecast
Tues-Thurs going for now, as each of the potential waves are showing
limited moisture availability. Temps will climb above normal for
Wed and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
Keeping the VFR forecast for now. SCT low/BKN high through the
afternoon with southwesterly winds gusting to 20kts at times ahead
of the approaching front. VCSH mention this evening...losing even
the mention after loss of day time heating. Better chance for
showers and thunderstorms to the north, showers at ILX terminals
will have a large diurnal component. HRRR is still somewhat bkn
with depiction of precip. Will update as necessary, but confidence
is not high enough to warrant a predominant mention at this point.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
303 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL/NWRN
IN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INCREASING SLWY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. AS OF 1PM CDT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO 2
WHILE TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT UN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F FOR THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA. THE BIGGER
QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING
INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND +12C OVER
THE REGION...WHILE THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS ARND 500 J/KG
OF CAPE INVOF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA/NWRN MO.
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INITIALIZATION AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ON
TRACK...SO...HAVE TRENDED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT STEADILY TRACKS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PCPN REACHING THE RFD AREA BTWN 3-
5PM AND THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA ARND 5-6PM WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN OF ARND 1 TO 2
HRS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO...POSSIBLY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLD
SHRA. AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...GIVING THE LIMITED DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AND NO REASON TO SEE WHY THERE WOULD BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT TS WITH THE
SHRA...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SOME TS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING
WILL BE LOCATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN
INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 05-06Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME TRAILING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY DURG THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VEER TO NLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 3 MB/3 HR AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE TRUE COOLER AIR WILL NOT
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL WARMING WILL BE
LESS THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FOR COMPARISON...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORNING LOW
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ARND 30 DEGREES...WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES AT
THE MOST.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
233 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A GOOD WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SATURDAY...AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...AS THIS
SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTS ITSELF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 925 AND 850 MB ARE PROGGED
TO REACH UP AROUND 18-19 DEGREES C AND 15-16 DEGREES C BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
A EVEN A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SHIFT OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY
MONDAY...AND AS IT DOES SO...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE DECENTLY MILD ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE COOLER AIRMASS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN REACH INTO THE 70S...BEFORE CONDITIONS COOL DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...BUT SEASONAL AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTN.
* TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
* TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER THIS EVE.
* LOW CIGS/MVFR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF KMSP OVER WESTERN WI AT MIDDAY...
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS IOWA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING MODESTLY GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
EASTERN WI/LM AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTAL
TROUGH. WINDS 220-240 DEG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUTS
NEAR 20 KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING
NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
ROUGHLY 02Z AT RFD...03-04Z ACROSS CHI TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME
NORTH AND BREEZY EARLY FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY JUST PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD INTO AREA TOWARD
EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED VERY PERSISTENT IN DEPICTING
A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING RFD
BY 21-22Z...AND CHICAGO TERMINALS BY ROUGHLY 23Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY THOUGH
LIKELY ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE LINE
GIVEN TOPS 300-350. THOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LOW...HAVE
INDICATED A VCTS IN TERMINALS TO CONVEY THE PICTURE.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH IN SHRA TIMING...MEDIUM-LOW IN TSRA COVERAGE.
* HIGH IN MVFR CIG TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WIND.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... VFR. BREEZY SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS TURNING BREEZY NW.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BREEZY NW.
&&
.MARINE...
317 AM CDT
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LAKE AS
WIND DIRECTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER THE COMING WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE
LOW TODAY...THEN NORTH WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN EASE AND VEER NORTHEASTERLY. EXPECT WAVES TO
INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS QUICKLY OVER
THE LAKE EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
LOWS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH CANADA NEXT WEEK. EACH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THEM THEN BACK TO NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THEM. LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME ON LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...5 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
233 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL/NWRN
IN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INCREASING SLWY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. AS OF 1PM CDT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO 2
WHILE TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT UN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F FOR THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA. THE BIGGER
QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING
INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND +12C OVER
THE REGION...WHILE THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS ARND 500 J/KG
OF CAPE INVOF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA/NWRN MO.
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INITIALIZATION AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ON
TRACK...SO...HAVE TRENDED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT STEADILY TRACKS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PCPN REACHING THE RFD AREA BTWN 3-
5PM AND THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA ARND 5-6PM WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN OF ARND 1 TO 2
HRS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO...POSSIBLY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLD
SHRA. AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...GIVING THE LIMITED DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AND NO REASON TO SEE WHY THERE WOULD BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT TS WITH THE
SHRA...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SOME TS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING
WILL BE LOCATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN
INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 05-06Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME TRAILING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY DURG THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VEER TO NLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 3 MB/3 HR AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE TRUE COOLER AIR WILL NOT
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL WARMING WILL BE
LESS THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FOR COMPARISON...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORNING LOW
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ARND 30 DEGREES...WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES AT
THE MOST.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
233 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A GOOD WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SATURDAY...AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...AS THIS
SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTS ITSELF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 925 AND 850 MB ARE PROGGED
TO REACH UP AROUND 18-19 DEGREES C AND 15-16 DEGREES C BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
A EVEN A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SHIFT OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY
MONDAY...AND AS IT DOES SO...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE DECENTLY MILD ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE COOLER AIRMASS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN REACH INTO THE 70S...BEFORE CONDITIONS COOL DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...BUT SEASONAL AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTN.
* TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
* TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER THIS EVE.
* LOW CIGS/MVFR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF KMSP OVER WESTERN WI AT MIDDAY...
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS IOWA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING MODESTLY GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
EASTERN WI/LM AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTAL
TROUGH. WINDS 220-240 DEG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUTS
NEAR 20 KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING
NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
ROUGHLY 02Z AT RFD...03-04Z ACROSS CHI TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME
NORTH AND BREEZY EARLY FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY JUST PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD INTO AREA TOWARD
EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED VERY PERSISTENT IN DEPICTING
A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING RFD
BY 21-22Z...AND CHICAGO TERMINALS BY ROUGHLY 23Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY THOUGH
LIKELY ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE LINE
GIVEN TOPS 300-350. THOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LOW...HAVE
INDICATED A VCTS IN TERMINALS TO CONVEY THE PICTURE.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH IN SHRA TIMING...MEDIUM-LOW IN TSRA COVERAGE.
* HIGH IN MVFR CIG TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WIND.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... VFR. BREEZY SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS TURNING BREEZY NW.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BREEZY NW.
&&
.MARINE...
317 AM CDT
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LAKE AS
WIND DIRECTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER THE COMING WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE
LOW TODAY...THEN NORTH WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN EASE AND VEER NORTHEASTERLY. EXPECT WAVES TO
INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS QUICKLY OVER
THE LAKE EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
LOWS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH CANADA NEXT WEEK. EACH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THEM THEN BACK TO NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THEM. LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME ON LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...5 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
144 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL/NWRN
IN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INCREASING SLWY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. AS OF 1PM CDT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO 2
WHILE TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT UN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F FOR THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA. THE BIGGER
QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING
INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND +12C OVER
THE REGION...WHILE THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS ARND 500 J/KG
OF CAPE INVOF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA/NWRN MO.
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INITIALIZATION AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ON
TRACK...SO...HAVE TRENDED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT STEADILY TRACKS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PCPN REACHING THE RFD AREA BTWN 3-
5PM AND THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA ARND 5-6PM WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN OF ARND 1 TO 2
HRS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO...POSSIBLY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLD
SHRA. AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...GIVING THE LIMITED DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AND NO REASON TO SEE WHY THERE WOULD BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT TS WITH THE
SHRA...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SOME TS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING
WILL BE LOCATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN
INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 05-06Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME TRAILING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY DURG THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VEER TO NLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 3 MB/3 HR AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE TRUE COOLER AIR WILL NOT
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL WARMING WILL BE
LESS THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FOR COMPARISON...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORNING LOW
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ARND 30 DEGREES...WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES AT
THE MOST.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
317 AM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA. MOS SUGGESTS SKIES
WILL CLEAR TOWARD SUNSET FRIDAY AND THIS IS THE TREND I HAVE IN THE
GRIDS...BUT AM WORRIED THAT THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE COULD RESULT IN AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA REMAINING SOCKED IN FRIDAY NIGHT. WHERE
SKIES CLEAR TEMPS SHOULD TANK INTO THE 40S...CONVERSELY ANYWHERE
STRATUS LINGERS LOOK FOR TEMPS TO BE HELD UP IN THE UPPER 40S OR LOW
50S. GIVEN THE STRATUS POTENTIAL NUDGED LOWS A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE.
ANY LINGERING STRATUS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION...ALBEIT WEAK...COMMENCES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS SATURDAY TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S.
OVER THE PACIFIC THIS MORNING...HURRICANE OHO HAS BEGUN THE
TRANSITION TO EXTRA TROPICAL AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHWARD. GFS/ECMWF
STRENGTHEN THE POST TROPICAL REMNANT OF OHO INTO A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL STORM AS IT MERGES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING
AROUND THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW. A PORTION OF THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
REINCARNATION OF OHO IS PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA THIS WEEKEND...DEEPENING TO AN INTENSE CYCLONE AS IT NEARS
JAMES BAY ON SUNDAY. THE RESULT LOCALLY WILL BE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AN IMPRESSIVE BLAST OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW 925MB TEMPS WARMING
TO AROUND +20C BY 00Z MONDAY (SUNDAY EVENING) WHICH SPC`S SOUNDING
CLIMO TOOL SUGGESTS IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND NEARING RECORD
VALUES FOR MID OCTOBER. 925MB TEMPS WEDNESDAY AROUND 17.5C ALLOWED
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 80S...SO WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND GOOD
MIXING SUNDAY ALONG WITH 925MB TEMPS POTENTIALLY 2-3C WARMER AM
THINKING WE STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING 80F. AFTER COORDINATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY TO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND THIS COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE IF 925MB DO
INDEED REACH 20C AS CURRENTLY PROGGED.
SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS PROBABLY NOT
DROPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME AREAS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE HIGHS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...BUT COLDER AIR COULD LAG BEHIND THE FRONT A BIT AND GIVEN
THE WARM START TO THE DAY HIGHS MONDAY COULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE
70S. WE START TO SEE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
NEXT WEEK...BUT THEY AGREE WITH GENERAL PATTERN OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW WITH ALTERNATING BOUTS OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND BRIEF SHARP
COOL DOWN...THOUGH ON THE WHOLE TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS WITH MUCH BELOW AVERAGE PRECIP.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTN.
* TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
* TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER THIS EVE.
* LOW CIGS/MVFR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF KMSP OVER WESTERN WI AT MIDDAY...
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS IOWA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING MODESTLY GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
EASTERN WI/LM AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTAL
TROUGH. WINDS 220-240 DEG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUTS
NEAR 20 KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING
NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
ROUGHLY 02Z AT RFD...03-04Z ACROSS CHI TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME
NORTH AND BREEZY EARLY FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY JUST PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD INTO AREA TOWARD
EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED VERY PERSISTENT IN DEPICTING
A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING RFD
BY 21-22Z...AND CHICAGO TERMINALS BY ROUGHLY 23Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY THOUGH
LIKELY ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE LINE
GIVEN TOPS 300-350. THOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LOW...HAVE
INDICATED A VCTS IN TERMINALS TO CONVEY THE PICTURE.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH IN SHRA TIMING...MEDIUM-LOW IN TSRA COVERAGE.
* HIGH IN MVFR CIG TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WIND.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... VFR. BREEZY SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS TURNING BREEZY NW.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BREEZY NW.
&&
.MARINE...
317 AM CDT
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LAKE AS
WIND DIRECTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER THE COMING WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE
LOW TODAY...THEN NORTH WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN EASE AND VEER NORTHEASTERLY. EXPECT WAVES TO
INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS QUICKLY OVER
THE LAKE EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
LOWS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH CANADA NEXT WEEK. EACH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THEM THEN BACK TO NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THEM. LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME ON LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...5 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1259 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
A cold front is slowly approaching the region from the NW, and is
expected to bring showers northwest of the Illinois River Valley
later this evening. In the meantime, temperatures are expected to
get into the lower 80s by this afternoon. Partly cloudy skies and
south/southwesterly winds will continue throughout the day.
Forecast is going well and no updates are anticipated at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
08z/3am surface analysis shows 1012mb low over eastern North
Dakota...with a cold front trailing into the Northern Rockies. The
low is progged to track into the Great Lakes later today...pulling
the front toward Illinois by tonight. With boundary remaining well
to the W/NW through this afternoon, ample sunshine and gusty
southwesterly winds will push high temperatures into the lower 80s.
Will maintain a dry forecast through mid-afternoon, then will
introduce low chance PoPs along/northwest of a Rushville to
Bloomington line after 21z/4pm as the front approaches from the
northwest.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
Cold front will be interacting with an unseasonably warm/moist
airmass as it arrives across central Illinois tonight, with forecast
soundings indicating precipitable water values two standard
deviations above normal for this time of year at around 1.40.
Despite the impressive moisture...areal coverage of precip will
likely be limited due to lack of strong upper-level support. One
well defined short-wave currently over the Dakotas will track
eastward into the Great Lakes later today and will remain well north
of central Illinois. Meanwhile...a second wave noted on water vapor
over Montana will drop southeastward into the Plains and will stay
largely W/SW of the area tonight into Friday. As a
result...synoptic forcing never properly coincides with low-level
convergence along the boundary to produce a widespread rain event.
Instead...think only scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop along the front. As such...have reduced PoPs into the
chance category for tonight. Front will drop into the Ohio River
Valley on Friday; however, its southward progress may be held up a
bit by the Montana short-wave digging into the Plains/Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Have therefore opted to maintain low
chance PoPs across the far SE CWA into the afternoon. Main story
will be the considerably cooler weather with afternoon highs
remaining in the 60s.
High pressure will provide chilly conditions with lows in the middle
40s Friday night, but a marked warming trend will develop over the
weekend as it quickly shifts off to the east. In fact, both the GFS
and ECMWF show 850mb temps rising into the 16-18C range by
Sunday...which is even warmer than readings will reach today. As a
result...have boosted highs into the upper 70s and lower 80s on
Sunday. After that, a cold front will sweep through the area on
Monday accompanied by little more than a few clouds and a shift in
the wind. Models bring a shot of cooler air into the region behind
the front, resulting in highs dropping back into the upper 60s/lower
70s by Tuesday: however, any significantly cooler airmass will
remain well to the north through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
Keeping the VFR forecast for now. SCT low/BKN high through the
afternoon with southwesterly winds gusting to 20kts at times ahead
of the approaching front. VCSH mention this evening...losing even
the mention after loss of day time heating. Better chance for
showers and thunderstorms to the north, showers at ILX terminals
will have a large diurnal component. HRRR is still somewhat bkn
with depiction of precip. Will update as necessary, but confidence
is not high enough to warrant a predominant mention at this point.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1150 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
A surface high pressure ridge axis extending from Lake Superior
southward through eastern Illinois will continue to produce light
winds for much of the night. Low pressure currently over North
Dakota will push eastward into the upper Midwest
overnight...strengthening pressure gradients over central Illinois
and initiating light south-southwest winds by morning. With the
lightest winds lasting longest toward eastern and southeastern
Illinois...along with the deepest moisture remaining...areas from
around I-57 eastward will have the best potential for fog by
morning. Latest HRRR run is developing some areas of low
visibility consistent with this scenario...so no updates are
needed at this time as patchy fog is currently in the forecast.
Lows expected to reach the mid to upper 50s across central
Illinois.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
Temperatures rebounding nicely this afternoon, with most areas of
the CWA in the mid-upper 70s at 2 pm. Main area of clouds the last
few hours has been a blob of stratocumulus across Missouri, spilling
a bit over the Mississippi River, although this eastern flank is
taking on more of a diurnal look with time.
Main concern for the forecast tonight remains with any fog
redevelopment. The area of concern continues to shrink, as the ridge
axis shifts east overnight and winds start to pick up ahead of the
shortwave currently advancing across the Dakotas. Currently thinking
that areas along and east of I-57 would be most prone, as the winds
there will remain very light with the ridge axis not too far away.
Lower levels of the forecast soundings suggest the fog would be
shallower than recent nights. Will only mention patchy fog late
tonight at this point. Otherwise, skies generally should be partly
cloudy.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
Main forecast concern will be timing of precip into the area along a
cold front slated to push through central Illinois tomorrow night
into Friday morning. Most of the operational models now similar in
their timing of the cold front across the forecast area Thursday
night with one more warm day ahead of the boundary as afternoon
temperatures top out mostly in the lower 80s with a gusty south to
southwest wind. We may even see a few mid 80s across west central
IL if cloud cover holds off during the day. Models suggest some
weak instability and lapse rates just ahead of the cold front late
Thursday afternoon with NAM forecast soundings a bit more
aggressive in forecasting Mixed Layer Capes of around 1000 J/KG
in a rather narrow axis stretching from southeast Iowa through
extreme west central Illinois, before the instability wanes with
the loss of daytime heating just after 00z. 0-6km shear values of
around 30 kts forecast across west central IL late tomorrow
afternoon and evening, so some storm organization may occur just
ahead of the cold front, but with most of the models indicating
the boundary still well out to our west/northwest tomorrow
afternoon, it appears that may occur over far eastern Iowa into
northwest Illinois. We may see some isolated storms produce gusty
winds and small hail, but with the weaker lapse rates depicted on
the latest models, it appears the hail threat has diminished. The
highest POPs will occur across the far northwest late tomorrow
afternoon with 50-60 POPs depicted along the frontal boundary
further south and east into central IL tomorrow evening, where the
low level convergence will be maximized.
Lingering shower chances will slide into southeast Illinois Friday
morning and gradually work off to the east and south of our forecast
area by late in the day. Much cooler weather will invade central
IL for a few days before a rapid warm up pushes in Sunday ahead
of a fast moving cold front which now looks to be pusing into our
forecast area Monday morning. With the fast movement of the
boundary and the better dynamics well to our north, not much of an
opportunity for moisture to work its way back into our area ahead
of the early week frontal passage so will continue to keep the
forecast dry ahead of this feature. Another quick shot of cool air
will push in behind the front later Monday into Tuesday, but a
fast turn-around in temps expected Tuesday night into Wednesday
ahead of another quick moving shortwave and frontal boundary
slated to push through our area dry for Wednesday afternoon and
evening.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
VFR conditions expected through much of the next 24 hours. As a
high pressure axis over the region shifts eastward, light and
variable winds will become more south-southwest after 09Z and
increase to near 10 knots Thursday morning. Fog continues to look
most likely from around KCMI south and eastward, and have kept a
TEMPO MVFR group for KCMI 09-13Z. After 18Z thursday...a cold
front will approach the area from the northwest...bringing
increased southwest winds of 10-15 kts gusting to around 20
kts...as well as increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Have included VCTS with continued VFR conditions after 21Z for
KPIA-KBMI, and after 00Z at KSPI-KDEC-KCMI. Timing/location
uncertainties of potential MVFR conditions with thunderstorms
preclude mention in TAFs at this point.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1238 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL THE BE THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL CROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 03Z SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COOL FRONT ALONG A PREFONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN IA AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. ALOFT...H850 ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER
IOWA WITH A NOSE OF +10C DEW POINTS LINED UP FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY FEEDING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
SFC WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. A WEAK LINE OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN ATTEMPTING TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE DRY OVER MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE
BETTER SATURATION OCCURS NEARER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT. MESO HRRR AND SYNOPTIC NAM/GFS
MODELS BOTH SUGGEST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PSBL ISO THUNDER
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IA MN BORDER BETWEEN 09-18Z THIS MORNING. FARTHER
SOUTH...LESSER CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE
BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL
OUTRUN THE DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE MILD
ONCE AGAIN AS H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE HIGHS NEAR THE
80 DEGREE MARK FROM SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH...IT WILL
FEEL COOLER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST BY 4 PM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND IN THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DECLINE AT AROUND HALF AN INCH PER
MONTH THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS LONG TERM FCST PERIOD IS REFLECTIVE OF
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP AS WE EFFECTIVELY HAVE ABOUT ZERO
PRECIP CHANCES FROM FRI THROUGH NEXT WED. FCST DETAILS FOCUS
PRIMARILY ON TEMPERATURE DETAILS.
FRIDAY...
AT 06Z THU...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PICKING UP MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT
ONSHORE TO BRITISH COLUMBIA ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. MEANWHILE...AN
UPPER LOW IS CHURNING WEST OF THE HUDSON BAY. AN ATTENDANT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PICKING UP THE BRITISH COLUMBIA MOISTURE
ALOFT AND WILL DRAG IT THROUGH IA AS THE TROUGH AXIS/UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY...RESULTING IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THESE CLOUDS...HAVE
DROPPED TEMPS ONE OR TWO DEGREES. NEAR THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH IOWA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR WEST ALL
DAY...CAA WILL BE TAKING PLACE WITH MODELS KEEPING 850 MB TEMPS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS WEEKEND...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PASSES EAST OF IOWA SATURDAY
MORNING...STRONG WAA WILL BE PUMPING INTO IOWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A DECENTLY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL COME CRASHING
TOWARDS IOWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS
WILL START AROUND 10C SAT AM...INCREASE TO 15C BY SAT PM...AND TO
19C BY SUN PM. MODELS KEYING ON UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER HIGH.
SUNDAY HOWEVER...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE. SO HAVE KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY AND INCREASED THEM A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE ROCKIES...BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BACK TO THE REGION. THIS WILL DROP MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 OR SO
DEGREES VERSUS SUNDAY/S HIGHS. LONG RANGE MODELS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/PASSAGE OF HIGH. EURO HAS HELD THE
LINE WHILE THE USUALLY SLOWER GEM HAS SPED UP...AND THE USUALLY
OVERLY-FAST GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF DMX
CWA BY TUE AFTERNOON...BRINGING BACK THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND
WAA TO IOWA. TEMPS TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR MONDAY AND WITH INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN CAA...HAVE STUCK WITH THE COOL DOWN...FOLLOWED BY A
5 OR SO DEGREE TEMP INCREASE FOR TUE. MAJOR DWPT DEPRESSIONS WILL
NIX ANY PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW...MORE OR LESS...IS HINTED AT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE UNTIL CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE
ENOUGH TO WHERE MODIFYING FCST WOULD ADD VALUE TO IT.
&&
.AVIATION...08/18Z
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
PRIMARY CONCERN DURING TAF PERIOD WILL BE MVFR/IFR CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CURRENT SOUTHERLY
EXTENT AROUND THE TWIN CITIES AND EXTENDING WSW FORM THERE. AM
ANTICIPATING MVFR CIGS INTO MCW AND ALO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
STICKING AROUND UNTIL MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOULD MIXING SUBSIDE ENOUGH OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS MAY
LOWER INTO OR NEAR IFR AT MCW AND ALO...THOUGH 10-14KT EXPECTED
WINDS MAY PREVENT THAT SCENARIO. LESSER CHANCES FOR
FOD...DSM...AND OTM TO REALIZE MVFR CIGS AND HAVE KEPT IT VFR FOR
THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 20-22KTS...WHICH WILL ALSO
SUBSIDE TOMORROW MORNING AS HIGH PUSHES IN.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...CURTIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
630 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL THE BE THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL CROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 03Z SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COOL FRONT ALONG A PREFONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN IA AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. ALOFT...H850 ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER
IOWA WITH A NOSE OF +10C DEW POINTS LINED UP FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY FEEDING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
SFC WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. A WEAK LINE OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN ATTEMPTING TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE DRY OVER MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE
BETTER SATURATION OCCURS NEARER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT. MESO HRRR AND SYNOPTIC NAM/GFS
MODELS BOTH SUGGEST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PSBL ISO THUNDER
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IA MN BORDER BETWEEN 09-18Z THIS MORNING. FARTHER
SOUTH...LESSER CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE
BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL
OUTRUN THE DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE MILD
ONCE AGAIN AS H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE HIGHS NEAR THE
80 DEGREE MARK FROM SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH...IT WILL
FEEL COOLER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST BY 4 PM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND IN THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DECLINE AT AROUND HALF AN INCH PER
MONTH THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS LONG TERM FCST PERIOD IS REFLECTIVE OF
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP AS WE EFFECTIVELY HAVE ABOUT ZERO
PRECIP CHANCES FROM FRI THROUGH NEXT WED. FCST DETAILS FOCUS
PRIMARILY ON TEMPERATURE DETAILS.
FRIDAY...
AT 06Z THU...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PICKING UP MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT
ONSHORE TO BRITISH COLUMBIA ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. MEANWHILE...AN
UPPER LOW IS CHURNING WEST OF THE HUDSON BAY. AN ATTENDANT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PICKING UP THE BRITISH COLUMBIA MOISTURE
ALOFT AND WILL DRAG IT THROUGH IA AS THE TROUGH AXIS/UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY...RESULTING IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THESE CLOUDS...HAVE
DROPPED TEMPS ONE OR TWO DEGREES. NEAR THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH IOWA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR WEST ALL
DAY...CAA WILL BE TAKING PLACE WITH MODELS KEEPING 850 MB TEMPS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS WEEKEND...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PASSES EAST OF IOWA SATURDAY
MORNING...STRONG WAA WILL BE PUMPING INTO IOWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A DECENTLY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL COME CRASHING
TOWARDS IOWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS
WILL START AROUND 10C SAT AM...INCREASE TO 15C BY SAT PM...AND TO
19C BY SUN PM. MODELS KEYING ON UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER HIGH.
SUNDAY HOWEVER...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE. SO HAVE KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY AND INCREASED THEM A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE ROCKIES...BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BACK TO THE REGION. THIS WILL DROP MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 OR SO
DEGREES VERSUS SUNDAY/S HIGHS. LONG RANGE MODELS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/PASSAGE OF HIGH. EURO HAS HELD THE
LINE WHILE THE USUALLY SLOWER GEM HAS SPED UP...AND THE USUALLY
OVERLY-FAST GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF DMX
CWA BY TUE AFTERNOON...BRINGING BACK THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND
WAA TO IOWA. TEMPS TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR MONDAY AND WITH INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN CAA...HAVE STUCK WITH THE COOL DOWN...FOLLOWED BY A
5 OR SO DEGREE TEMP INCREASE FOR TUE. MAJOR DWPT DEPRESSIONS WILL
NIX ANY PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW...MORE OR LESS...IS HINTED AT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE UNTIL CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE
ENOUGH TO WHERE MODIFYING FCST WOULD ADD VALUE TO IT.
&&
.AVIATION...08/12Z
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
A FEW CONCERNS FOR THIS PACKAGE. SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
NOW MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EARLY AND ISOLATED
THUNDER NORTHEAST THROUGH 20Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS
LOW SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT THIS TIME. WITH FRONT PASSING
THROUGH AREA TODAY...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AFT 15Z NORTH...18Z
CENTRAL AND 00Z SOUTHEAST. WINDS MIX TO 20 TO 30KTS NORTH AND
SLIGHTLY LESS CENTRAL SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD. AFT 00Z COLD AIR
ADVECTION ADVANCING SOUTH MAY BE ENOUGH TO THICKEN MVFR STRATUS
INTO THE NORTH THIRD OF FORECAST AREA. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
330 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL THE BE THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL CROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 03Z SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COOL FRONT ALONG A PREFONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN IA AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. ALOFT...H850 ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER
IOWA WITH A NOSE OF +10C DEW POINTS LINED UP FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY FEEDING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
SFC WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. A WEAK LINE OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN ATTEMPTING TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE DRY OVER MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE
BETTER SATURATION OCCURS NEARER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT. MESO HRRR AND SYNOPTIC NAM/GFS
MODELS BOTH SUGGEST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PSBL ISO THUNDER
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IA MN BORDER BETWEEN 09-18Z THIS MORNING. FARTHER
SOUTH...LESSER CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE
BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL
OUTRUN THE DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE MILD
ONCE AGAIN AS H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE HIGHS NEAR THE
80 DEGREE MARK FROM SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH...IT WILL
FEEL COOLER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST BY 4 PM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND IN THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DECLINE AT AROUND HALF AN INCH PER
MONTH THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS LONG TERM FCST PERIOD IS REFLECTIVE OF
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP AS WE EFFECTIVELY HAVE ABOUT ZERO
PRECIP CHANCES FROM FRI THROUGH NEXT WED. FCST DETAILS FOCUS
PRIMARILY ON TEMPERATURE DETAILS.
FRIDAY...
AT 06Z THU...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PICKING UP MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT
ONSHORE TO BRITISH COLUMBIA ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. MEANWHILE...AN
UPPER LOW IS CHURNING WEST OF THE HUDSON BAY. AN ATTENDANT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PICKING UP THE BRITISH COLUMBIA MOISTURE
ALOFT AND WILL DRAG IT THROUGH IA AS THE TROUGH AXIS/UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY...RESULTING IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THESE CLOUDS...HAVE
DROPPED TEMPS ONE OR TWO DEGREES. NEAR THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH IOWA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR WEST ALL
DAY...CAA WILL BE TAKING PLACE WITH MODELS KEEPING 850 MB TEMPS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS WEEKEND...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PASSES EAST OF IOWA SATURDAY
MORNING...STRONG WAA WILL BE PUMPING INTO IOWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A DECENTLY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL COME CRASHING
TOWARDS IOWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS
WILL START AROUND 10C SAT AM...INCREASE TO 15C BY SAT PM...AND TO
19C BY SUN PM. MODELS KEYING ON UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER HIGH.
SUNDAY HOWEVER...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE. SO HAVE KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY AND INCREASED THEM A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE ROCKIES...BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BACK TO THE REGION. THIS WILL DROP MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 OR SO
DEGREES VERSUS SUNDAY/S HIGHS. LONG RANGE MODELS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/PASSAGE OF HIGH. EURO HAS HELD THE
LINE WHILE THE USUALLY SLOWER GEM HAS SPED UP...AND THE USUALLY
OVERLY-FAST GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF DMX
CWA BY TUE AFTERNOON...BRINGING BACK THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND
WAA TO IOWA. TEMPS TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR MONDAY AND WITH INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN CAA...HAVE STUCK WITH THE COOL DOWN...FOLLOWED BY A
5 OR SO DEGREE TEMP INCREASE FOR TUE. MAJOR DWPT DEPRESSIONS WILL
NIX ANY PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW...MORE OR LESS...IS HINTED AT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE UNTIL CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE
ENOUGH TO WHERE MODIFYING FCST WOULD ADD VALUE TO IT.
&&
.AVIATION...08/06Z
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
LITTLE CHANGE FROM 00Z THINKING WITH VFR CONDITIONS STILL ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
IOWA INTO THU DRIVEN BY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE
WAVES ALOFT. THE LATTER WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
IT...MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHEAST TAF SITES /KMCW/KALO/. THERE WILL
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...AND POSSIBLY OTHER CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE...BUT CHANCES ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1155 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW ACROSS SW US...WITH MEAN TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL WEAK CONVERGENT AREAS
LONG SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THIS AFTERNOON...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN
CLEARING AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO CU
FIELD/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. SB
CAPE VALUES 500-1000 J/KG ACCORDING TO RAP ANALYSIS SHOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE UPDRAFTS. WEAK SHEER AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL DESPITE
COOLER TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT. DUE TO THE MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST BL FLOW HELPING DRY OUT BOUNDARY
LAYER. I STILL COULDNT RULE OUT VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN REGIONS OF
PEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING/LIGHT WINDS...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. I DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING MENTION IN ZONES AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS DRIER BL CONDITIONS PERSISTING. STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARDS OUR CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA BY 00Z. INCREASING LIFT
AND INSTABILITY ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHERN
CWA. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS FROM THE WEST. THE PATH OF THE TROUGH HAS CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER THE LATEST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE
DECREASED THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...LEADING TO A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
DEVELOPING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR TWO ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL DURING THE NIGHT...OR ONE LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL. THE
FIRST ROUND WILL DEVELOP AS THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE LIFT
TO DEVELOP IN THE 800-700MB LAYER AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
DECLINE IN THAT LAYER.
BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND THE MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP.
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW STRONG LIFT CENTERED IN THE 500-400MB
LAYER...BUT ALSO EXTENDING OUTSIDE OF THIS LAYER FOR SOME PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SATURATED OR CLOSE TO
SATURATION AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR ZERO WITHIN THE
STRONG LIFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
RAINFALL SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE BAND OF LIFT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA DUE TO THE LIFT INCREASING. THE BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING WHEN
THE LIFT IS AT ITS PEAK.
BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF LIFT THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN PRIMARILY THE 400-500MB LAYER. THERE IS STILL SOME
WEAK LIFT OVERLAPPING THE FN VECTOR DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS...SO COULD FORESEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAINFALL
BEHIND THE MAIN BAND.
MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RAINFALL WILL EXIT THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT...HOWEVER THE AREA WILL BE DRY WELL BEFORE SUNRISE.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR SUNRISE WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 40S FOR THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE AREA.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SO DRY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE
COOLEST. SOME PARTS OF THE AREA WILL NEAR 90 DEGREES SUNDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TUESDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY WARM UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND
MCK. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BY 13-14Z AND THEN
NORTHEAST BY 17-18Z AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND IT. EXPECT SOME
GUSTINESS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 22Z-00Z THURSDAY EVENING AS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY T-STORMS OR SHOWERS AT THIS TIME
AS THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PREVAILING CONDITION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
659 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL PASS TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING WITH COLDER AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
655 AM UPDATE: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS STREAMING OFF THE
ST. LAWRENCE INTO NW MAINE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM MODEL
DOING THE BEST W/THE CLOUDS AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ACCOUNT FOR
THESE CLOUDS COMING IN. CIG PLOTS SHOW CLOUD DECK OF AROUND 4500
FT. TEMPERATURES BACK ACROSS THE NW DOWN IN THE LOWER 30 SUCH AS
CLAYTON LAKE(40B) W/31F. BAKER LAKE IN NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY
WAS DOWN TO 29F. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SOME AFTER 12 W/THE HELP
OF THE SUN.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY TODAY AND THEN THE LLVLS DRY OUT W/NW WINDS KICKING IN
FOR A TIME. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE LATER TODAY AND THESE CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY BACK ACROSS THE ONTARIO PROVINCE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY W/A DECENT NW
WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH EARLY TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DROP QUICKLY BY EVENING DOWN TO LESS THAN
6 MPH W/JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THINKING IS THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OFF
QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONCERN IS THAT TEMPS
COULD DROP FURTHER IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF A WHILE LONGER ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOW LYING AREAS. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF LOW
TO MID 30S N AND W AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
MORNING AND CROSS THE REGION DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AD THEN TAPER TO
SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES EAST INTO
THE MARITIMES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE ST
JOHN VALLEY AND UPWARDS TO AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS DOWN EAST.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND
THE LOW TO MID 50S DOWN EAST.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER
IN COOLER AIR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 30
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 CENTRAL AND DOWN
EAST.
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A BLUSTERY AND CHILLY DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWER TO THE ST JOHN VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWN EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL SEE A MODERATING TEMPERATURES
TREND BY MONDAY AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH TRANSPORTS MILDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN/CIGS FRIDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THIS TERM. A SWELL IS STILL
OUT ON THE WATERS, BUT WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 3 TO 4 FT
AWAY FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE. WINDS WILL COME FOR A TIME EARLY
TODAY W/ARRIVAL OF CAA HITTING THE WATERS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO
INCREASE THE WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS MAINLY FOR THE OUTER ZONES. THE
OFFSHORE WIND SHOULD KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
437 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
LOCATED OVER THE SE CORNER OF SASKATCHEWAN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA FROM SE SASK THROUGH SRN MANITOBA INTO CNTRL AND NE ND. AT
THE SFC...SRLY WINDS HAD INCREASED OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO WRN MN
BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR AND A TROUGH AND
WARM FRONT FROM SRN SASK INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. VIS LOOP SHOWED
DIMINISHING SC AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE ERN CWA AS HIGH PRES
AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
SASK SHRTWV WERE ALREADY STREAMING THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN
UPPER MI.
THE MODELS REMAINED IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING/POSITION OF THE SHRTWV AND SFC LOW MOVING INTO UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WEST AFTER 06Z...CNTRL
AFT 10Z AND EAST BY 14Z. MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 200 J/KG AND
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES ALSO SUPPORT TSRA POTENTIAL OVER THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND PWAT TO AROUND
1.0 INCH...QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.4 TO 0.7 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH. WITH LINGERING DEEP
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHER POPS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY FOR
UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM W
TO E BTWN 15Z-21Z.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
BEGINNING FRI...800 MB TEMPS AROUND -1C COULD STILL SUPPORT SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LAKE SHOWERS EARLY FRI OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPR
MI FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY A NNW WIND FLOW. EXPECT THESE LAKE
SHOWERS TO END BY LATE MORNING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS
THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FRI EVENING AND THEN SLIDES EAST
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND 850
MB WARM ADVECTION IN WSW FLOW SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISING TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AS BOTH
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW 850MB TEMPS RISING NEAR 20C BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 900 MB OFF FCST SOUNDINGS WOULD EASILY
YIELD TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S ON SUNDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF. A FEW WRN LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR COULD
PUSH NEAR 80F IN DOWNSLOPING SW FLOW. ALSO MODELS INDICATE
SHORTWAVES STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...SO EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOC COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE PAC NW AND THEN MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AS NOTED
ON ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY SO WILL
INCLUDE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS DESPITE FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE (PWATS
ONLY AROUND .6 INCH). MODELS HINT AT MORE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA FOR TUE INTO WED BUT WITH WEAKER LIFT FORECASTED AND STILL
LIMITED MOISTURE...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.
TEMPS WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
MONDAYS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TEMPS COULD EVEN FALL BLO NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AS MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO -2 TO -4C BY
EARLY TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
LOW PRES WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THRU THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH W TO E THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...
UPSLOPE WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE LOW WILL
HELP SOME LIGHT PCPN TO LINGER ACROSS NRN UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW SHOULD HOLD THRU THE NIGHT
BEFORE QUICKLY FALLING THRU MVFR TO IFR DURING THE MORNING HRS.
UPSLOPE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE CIGS TO FALL TO LIFR AT KIWD FOR A TIME
THIS AFTN AND AT KSAW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH NRN ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ERN ND AND FAR W MN THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE ACROSS W UPPER MI THURSDAY MORNING WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TO
NEARING 30KTS OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BEFORE EXITING
ACROSS N LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THURSDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE LOW
NRLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FRI AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SAT AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES OFF TO THESE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER CNTRL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1218 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
LOCATED OVER THE SE CORNER OF SASKATCHEWAN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA FROM SE SASK THROUGH SRN MANITOBA INTO CNTRL AND NE ND. AT
THE SFC...SRLY WINDS HAD INCREASED OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO WRN MN
BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR AND A TROUGH AND
WARM FRONT FROM SRN SASK INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. VIS LOOP SHOWED
DIMINISHING SC AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE ERN CWA AS HIGH PRES
AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
SASK SHRTWV WERE ALREADY STREAMING THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN
UPPER MI.
THE MODELS REMAINED IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING/POSITION OF THE SHRTWV AND SFC LOW MOVING INTO UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WEST AFTER 06Z...CNTRL
AFT 10Z AND EAST BY 14Z. MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 200 J/KG AND
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES ALSO SUPPORT TSRA POTENTIAL OVER THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND PWAT TO AROUND
1.0 INCH...QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.4 TO 0.7 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH. WITH LINGERING DEEP
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHER POPS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY FOR
UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM W
TO E BTWN 15Z-21Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF THE CWA THU NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO
NW FLOW ALOFT UNTIL A RIDGE MOVES OVER SUN AHEAD OF A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN NW FLOW THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THU NIGHT...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL RESULT
IN UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT REGIONS INTO FRI MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND 0C. A SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CUTTING OFF PRECIP BY LATE MORNING AND LAKE CLOUDS FROM W
TO E BY LATE FRI. WILL LINGER CLOUD COVER LONGER SINCE MODELS TEND
TO CLEAR SKIES TOO FAST IN THIS SCENARIO.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AHEAD AND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
THAT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPS SAT AND SUN. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM 0C AT 18Z FRI TO 20C BY
00Z MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS SUN. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF SW WINDS ON
SUN...FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A GREATER CONCERN GIVEN TEMPS 15F TO MAYBE
20F ABOVE NORMAL AND HOW LITTLE RAIN MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN OVER THE
LAST MONTH.
ALL MODEL HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER AND FARTHER S WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT AND MON.
MOST MODELS NOW HAVE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...SO WILL BE
INCREASING POPS. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH IN THE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT MODELS ONLY HAVE
SOME SCATTERED AND LIGHT QPF NEAR THE AREA. WILL LET MODEL CONSENSUS
POPULATE THE FORECAST FOR TUE AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
LOW PRES WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THRU THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH W TO E THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...
UPSLOPE WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE LOW WILL
HELP SOME LIGHT PCPN TO LINGER ACROSS NRN UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW SHOULD HOLD THRU THE NIGHT
BEFORE QUICKLY FALLING THRU MVFR TO IFR DURING THE MORNING HRS.
UPSLOPE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE CIGS TO FALL TO LIFR AT KIWD FOR A TIME
THIS AFTN AND AT KSAW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH NRN ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ERN ND AND FAR W MN THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE ACROSS W UPPER MI THURSDAY MORNING WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TO
NEARING 30KTS OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BEFORE EXITING
ACROSS N LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THURSDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE LOW
NRLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FRI AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SAT AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES OFF TO THESE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER CNTRL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSON MS
945 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...COLD FRONT IS NOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR
WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP LEFT IN THE REGION OF A POST-FRONTAL NATURE
AND NOW PUSHING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES WHERE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FORCING IS GREATEST. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THE TREND OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST TO EAST-CENTRAL
QUADRANTS OF ZONES) GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST INTO ALABAMA. COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD HELP DEVELOP LOWER STRATUS
CLOUDS SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT (AT LEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MS RIVER) AND SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY TAKE QUITE A BIT OF TIME
TOMORROW MORNING TO EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO SUN BY THE AFTERNOON.
THESE LOW CLOUDS COULD ALSO CONCEIVABLY CONTAIN A BIT OF PATCHY
SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE IN MAINLY EASTERN MS AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS EXPECTATION KEPT
ME FROM INCLUDING IT IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST QUITE YET. GIVEN
LATEST WARMER HIRES MODEL OUTPUT I ROSE LOWS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ZONES A BIT IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
AROUND GWO/GTR/CBM/NMM/MEI WILL CLEAR TO THE EAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS BUILDING SOUTH OVER MOST STATIONS
IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR IN
MOST AREAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CATS MOST LIKELY IN EASTERN MS.
EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OF FLIGHT CATS AS SKIES CLEAR TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAVE PLENTY OF VFR CONDITIONS
AROUND THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
NORTH AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AT TIMES. /BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
HAD THE COLD FRONT NEAR A GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI TO BASTROP LOUISIANA
LINE. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS HAD A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPPING OVER ARKANSAS THAT WILL SWING EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT AS WELL. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER ARKANSAS
WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TOGETHER THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TO OUR CWA THAT WE HAVE
SEEN IN AWHILE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTHEAST WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS AMOUNTS SUGGEST A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF OUR CWA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF MISSISSIPPI CLOSE TO
SUNRISE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST THROUGH
MID MORNING BUT THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLIER.
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR CWA SATURDAY. THE 12Z
FRI JAN PWAT WAS 1.56INCHES. PWATS WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN TO NEAR A
HALF INCH OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING AND BELOW A HALF
INCH AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH OUR AIR MASS WILL BE DRY
SATURDAY CAA WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND DECENT INSOLATION
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL.
OUR NORMAL HIGHS RUN IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH. SURFACE
RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTH OVER OUR CWA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR CALM WINDS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWING FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OF OUR DRY AIR MASS. OUR
NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE MID 50S. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL AREAWIDE AND WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT THE NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST SUNDAY WHILE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER OUR REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST SUNDAY NIGHT LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP
FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL HELP HOLD MORNING LOWS CLOSE TO OUR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL WHILE SITES IN THE EAST WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S
AGAIN. /22/
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL...FOR THE MOST
PART...LEAD TO A DRY FORECAST. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL COME
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM REALISTICALLY WILL ONLY GLANCE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WILL BE FELT OVER THE OH VALLEY. EVEN SO...
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S LOOK TO POOL AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE DELTA REGION OF AR/LA/MS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WITH TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S WILL YIELD CAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG.
THUS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK LAPSE
RATES...HOWEVER...SHOULD PREVENT UPDRAFTS FROM BECOMING VERY ROBUST.
THE MAIN FRONTAL FORCING WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LOSS OF
HEATING/INSTABILITY SHOULD RENDER THE REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE
FORM OF SHOWERS.
THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
AIR MOVING BACK IN. FAST PACED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK AIRMASS
MODERATION.
WHILE AFTERNOON MAXES DURING THE PERIOD WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE
80S...THE DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AT NIGHT AND MINS TO DROP INTO THE 50S. WITH ONLY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED MONDAY AND THE PERSISTENT DRY AIRMASS...
FIRE DANGER MAY BECOME A CONCERN BY THE MIDDLE OR LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 62 77 50 82 / 19 4 1 1
MERIDIAN 62 77 49 81 / 33 9 1 1
VICKSBURG 60 79 47 84 / 12 2 1 1
HATTIESBURG 64 82 52 84 / 18 9 1 1
NATCHEZ 62 79 52 83 / 11 1 1 1
GREENVILLE 57 76 49 83 / 17 1 1 1
GREENWOOD 57 76 48 82 / 37 2 1 1
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/22/26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE PCPN CHANCES FOR
TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONGEST 500 MB 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 12Z WERE CENTERED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RADAR ECHOES OUT OF A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK SPREADING SEWD.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP13 MODEL RUNS SHOW LIGHT PCPN SPREADING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. THINK
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...0.02 INCHES OR LESS AT MOST SPOTS...
BUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO JUST GO WITH
AREAL COVERAGE WORDING. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO END AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT EXIT THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY UP OVER MN
AND THE ERN DKTS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO IA AND PARTS OF ERN NE
LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
WE EXPECT A MODERATELY THICK AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. LOOK FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID
OR UPPER 60S...BUT SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE IN WRN IOWA.
RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMP PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS 75 TO
80 IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND LOWER 80S WEST. THERE ARE HINTS THAT
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY MORNING SO
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THAT POTENTIAL. BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT FOR
SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE MOVING IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE SEEMS
LIMITED AT THIS POINT SO KEPT POPS BELOW 10 PERCENT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS PERIOD MAINLY DRY. A FAIRLY STRONG PUSH
OF COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S FOR MONDAY. FAIRLY FAST W/NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW...BUT THESE
SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH PCPN. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OFF THE BAJA
COAST MOVING UP TO CA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOCALLY...HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
203 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH QUIET AND DRY WEATHER BEFORE A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE SEEING A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS CLEARED THE AREA
AND ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LIKEWISE EXITED/DISIPATED. LOW-LEVEL
CAA IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND IR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW SOME SCT STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH MORE
EXTENSION CLOUD COVER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD ACROSS
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT. CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION
LAYER NEAR 5 KFT...BUT RAP AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONTINUED DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THESE CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP...INCLUDING AT SLK THIS EVENING. MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG
WORDING OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NW GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO WILL BRING DIMINISHING WIND
LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...EXCEPT AREAS OF MID 30S ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
IN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DUE TO A
ROBUST FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
BEGINNING TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT TOMORROW
WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THAT ALL CHANGES GOING INTO THURSDAY LATE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES RAPIDLY ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
ONCE THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES INTO THE REGION
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.5-1" INCH RANGE SO NO HYDRO
CONCERNS WITH RIVERS RUNNING QUITE LOW. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID
50S DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO I DONT EXPECT ANY WHITE FLAKES
FALLING QUITE YET. FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT ANTICIPATE TEMPS
COOLING TO INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 203 AM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE REGIONAL
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY REAL WEATHER MAKER
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONT ON TUESDAY WHEN SOLID CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE
OFFERED. A FAIRLY TIGHT SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SUCH THAT CONDITIONS WILL TREND
QUITE BREEZY BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL HEAVILY
GOVERN PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION WITH THE LARGER VALLEYS LIKELY
SEEING AT LEAST SOME SHADOWING EFFECTS. IN GENERAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH BRIEFLY WARMER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S). OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S, THOUGH AGAIN BRIEFLY MILDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
ON MONDAY NIGHT WHEN READINGS SHOULD HOLD SOLIDLY IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SCT/BKN CIGS FROM
050-070 AGL TREND SKC AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z UNDER LIGHT WINDS.
ONLY EXCEPTION AT KSLK WHERE IFR BR/FG WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH
12Z.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z
FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV.
DEVELOPING JET 3000 TO 4000 FEET AGL OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS MAY PRODUCE
SOME LLVL SHEAR/TURBULENCE NEAR THE MTNS ON FRIDAY. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN BY
00Z SATURDAY. VFR PREVAILS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
105 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH QUIET AND DRY WEATHER BEFORE A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE SEEING A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS CLEARED THE AREA
AND ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LIKEWISE EXITED/DISIPATED. LOW-LEVEL
CAA IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND IR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW SOME SCT STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH MORE
EXTENSION CLOUD COVER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD ACROSS
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT. CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION
LAYER NEAR 5 KFT...BUT RAP AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONTINUED DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THESE CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP...INCLUDING AT SLK THIS EVENING. MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG
WORDING OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NW GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO WILL BRING DIMINISHING WIND
LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...EXCEPT AREAS OF MID 30S ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
IN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DUE TO A
ROBUST FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
BEGINNING TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT TOMORROW
WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THAT ALL CHANGES GOING INTO THURSDAY LATE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES RAPIDLY ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
ONCE THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES INTO THE REGION
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.5-1" INCH RANGE SO NO HYDRO
CONCERNS WITH RIVERS RUNNING QUITE LOW. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID
50S DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO I DONT EXPECT ANY WHITE FLAKES
FALLING QUITE YET. FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT ANTICIPATE TEMPS
COOLING TO INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FCST WILL FEATURE A VERY
CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH TEMPS STARTING BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND...WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN TWD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN IS VERY TYPICAL OF MID OCTOBER...WITH SYSTEMS EVERY COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON SATURDAY 1024 MB HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH COOL NW SFC WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C SUPPORT
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S MTNS TOWNS TO MID 50S WARMER
VALLEYS. NOTE SUMMITS HOLD IN THE 30S WITH SOME RIME POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY MORNING FROM LEFTOVER MOISTURE. SFC HIGH PRES QUICKLY
SHIFTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
BY 12Z SUNDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS QUICKLY WARM BACK BTWN 6-8C ON
SUNDAY AND BTWN 10-12C ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF SFC
BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY
TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 70F BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRICKY
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOME CLOUDS BUT THINKING
LOWS MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 50F. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH CHC ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE AND STRONG LLVL CAA ON BACK SIDE ASSOCIATED
WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF. WINDOW OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ONLY BE 3 TO 6 HOURS WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY < 0.50". TEMPS COOL
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDS...BEFORE ANOTHER DEEPER TROF AND
STRONG LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
HINTS AT THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SCT/BKN CIGS FROM
050-070 AGL TREND SKC AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z UNDER LIGHT WINDS.
ONLY EXCEPTION AT KSLK WHERE IFR BR/FG WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH
12Z.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z
FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV.
DEVELOPING JET 3000 TO 4000 FEET AGL OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS MAY PRODUCE
SOME LLVL SHEAR/TURBULENCE NEAR THE MTNS ON FRIDAY. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN BY
00Z SATURDAY. VFR PREVAILS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
650 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING... THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...
TODAY: PRETTY QUIET DAY WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS (WITH MINIMAL
VERTICAL EXTEND) AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH AN ACCELERATING
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. CURRENT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY STRATOCU IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DUE TO MOISTURE
POOLING AROUND 850 MB) AND CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY IN THE EAST. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE... A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH HEATING... LEAVING
LITTLE MORE THAN AFTERNOON CUMULUS (WITH LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT
GIVEN THE MID LEVEL STABILITY) AND THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME PATCHY LIGHT LATE AFTERNOON PRECIP IN
THE NRN PIEDMONT... BUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE SPARSITY
OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT... ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES... AND WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
FORECAST THICKNESSES OF 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL SUGGEST HIGHS ON PAR
WITH YESTERDAY`S... UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR SSE TONIGHT... AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE SW AT 2-5 KTS ALONG WITH IMPROVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT FOG. BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BE
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WITH
ACCELERATING MID LEVEL FLOW AND RISE IN WEAK DPVA. LOWS 57-61... A
BIT HIGHER THAN TEMPS THIS MORNING. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT EVERYONE IN CENTRAL NC WILL SEE
SOME RAIN BETWEEN MID-EVENING FRI AND MID-EVENING SAT. A BROAD
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM QUEBEC ACROSS MI TO NRN MO/KS EARLY IN
THE DAY AMPLIFIES AND STRENGTHENS WITH A NARROWING WAVELENGTH AS IT
HEADS ESE... CULMINATING IN A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
TN/GA/NC/SC SAT/SAT NIGHT... WHILE AT ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPS ESE THROUGH NC. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS
AND IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET
ACCELERATION SHOULD ALL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL FORCING FOR ASCENT ACTING
ON AN INCREASINGLY MOIST COLUMN (PW RISING TO > 1.5")... ANAFRONTAL
IN NATURE AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
LITTLE PRECIP IN THE CWA BEFORE SUNSET FRI... ALTHOUGH THE SREF AND
GEFS SUGGEST A LITTLE FASTER ARRIVAL... WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.
WILL BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES INTO THE NW CWA AFTER 3 PM... SPREADING
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INCREASING TO A MAXIMUM (LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL) DURING THE PERIOD FROM MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON SAT. THE ECMWF TAKES A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AS COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS... SO WITH A NOD TO THIS
SOLUTION... WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...
SPECIFICALLY THE SE CWA AS LIFT SHOULD BE BEST IN THE EAST WITH EVER-
INCREASING DPVA WITH EASTWARD TROUGH PROGRESSION... AND WITH THE
FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE SC COAST
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE INTO
CENTRAL/ERN NC. PRECIP SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERS... ALTHOUGH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING MAINLY IN THE EAST
SUPPORTS A NEED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE EAST. WITH THE
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON... TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB MINIMALLY EARLY BEFORE FALLING DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRI 80-83 WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS FRI NIGHT 59-
65 WITH RISING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SAT IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... LIKELY OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. ATTM
EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OF ABOUT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF OF THE
CAROLINA COAST BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL LINGER BEHIND OVER
THE STATE...THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME REMAINING PRECIPITATION IN THE
EAST. AS THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS AWAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BUT DISAGREE ON ITS LOCATION
WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE UPPER LOW BACK OVER LAND AND THE GFS
SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST. THIS MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON CLOUD COVER IN
THE EAST SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE COAST.
BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE UPPER TROUGH. AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IT DRIES OUT IN BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO OCCUR...BOTH THE
FRONT AND TROUGH ARE VERY PROGRESSIVE AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
PUSHES THESE FEATURES THROUGH VERY QUICKLY. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT THE MOST. ON THE HEELS OF THE
FRONT...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THINGS WILL START OUT A BIT
TRICKY AS A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM LEAVES THE AREA WILL DETERMINE
HOW LOW THE TEMPERATURES GO ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHWEST COULD
SEE SOME UPPER 40S WITH MID 50S TO THE SOUTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
50S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS... BRINGING CALM TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD AT INT/GSO/RDU/FAY THROUGH 12Z FRI. AT
RWI... CLEAR SKIES AND CALM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PATCHY FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
(MOSTLY FOG BUT STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE) BEFORE 13Z. ANY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIFT QUICKLY WITH HEATING BY 14Z... AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH 12Z FRI... ALTHOUGH
POCKETS OF MVFR FOG MAY OCCUR AFTER 07Z TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MID
EVENING FRI. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN AND LOWER TO MVFR FRI
NIGHT... AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR... LASTING THROUGH EARLY SAT
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS (BEST STORM CHANCE NEAR FAY). VFR
CONDITIONS THEN ARE LIKELY FROM LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING... THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...
TODAY: PRETTY QUIET DAY WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS (WITH MINIMAL
VERTICAL EXTEND) AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH AN ACCELERATING
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. CURRENT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY STRATOCU IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DUE TO MOISTURE
POOLING AROUND 850 MB) AND CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY IN THE EAST. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE... A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH HEATING... LEAVING
LITTLE MORE THAN AFTERNOON CUMULUS (WITH LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT
GIVEN THE MID LEVEL STABILITY) AND THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME PATCHY LIGHT LATE AFTERNOON PRECIP IN
THE NRN PIEDMONT... BUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE SPARSITY
OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT... ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES... AND WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
FORECAST THICKNESSES OF 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL SUGGEST HIGHS ON PAR
WITH YESTERDAY`S... UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR SSE TONIGHT... AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE SW AT 2-5 KTS ALONG WITH IMPROVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT FOG. BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BE
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WITH
ACCELERATING MID LEVEL FLOW AND RISE IN WEAK DPVA. LOWS 57-61... A
BIT HIGHER THAN TEMPS THIS MORNING. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT EVERYONE IN CENTRAL NC WILL SEE
SOME RAIN BETWEEN MID-EVENING FRI AND MID-EVENING SAT. A BROAD
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM QUEBEC ACROSS MI TO NRN MO/KS EARLY IN
THE DAY AMPLIFIES AND STRENGTHENS WITH A NARROWING WAVELENGTH AS IT
HEADS ESE... CULMINATING IN A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
TN/GA/NC/SC SAT/SAT NIGHT... WHILE AT ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPS ESE THROUGH NC. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS
AND IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET
ACCELERATION SHOULD ALL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL FORCING FOR ASCENT ACTING
ON AN INCREASINGLY MOIST COLUMN (PW RISING TO > 1.5")... ANAFRONTAL
IN NATURE AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
LITTLE PRECIP IN THE CWA BEFORE SUNSET FRI... ALTHOUGH THE SREF AND
GEFS SUGGEST A LITTLE FASTER ARRIVAL... WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.
WILL BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES INTO THE NW CWA AFTER 3 PM... SPREADING
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INCREASING TO A MAXIMUM (LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL) DURING THE PERIOD FROM MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON SAT. THE ECMWF TAKES A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AS COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS... SO WITH A NOD TO THIS
SOLUTION... WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...
SPECIFICALLY THE SE CWA AS LIFT SHOULD BE BEST IN THE EAST WITH EVER-
INCREASING DPVA WITH EASTWARD TROUGH PROGRESSION... AND WITH THE
FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE SC COAST
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE INTO
CENTRAL/ERN NC. PRECIP SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERS... ALTHOUGH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING MAINLY IN THE EAST
SUPPORTS A NEED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE EAST. WITH THE
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON... TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB MINIMALLY EARLY BEFORE FALLING DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRI 80-83 WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS FRI NIGHT 59-
65 WITH RISING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SAT IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... LIKELY OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. ATTM
EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OF ABOUT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF OF THE
CAROLINA COAST BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL LINGER BEHIND OVER
THE STATE...THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME REMAINING PRECIPITATION IN THE
EAST. AS THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS AWAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BUT DISAGREE ON ITS LOCATION
WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE UPPER LOW BACK OVER LAND AND THE GFS
SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST. THIS MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON CLOUD COVER IN
THE EAST SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE COAST.
BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE UPPER TROUGH. AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IT DRIES OUT IN BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO OCCUR...BOTH THE
FRONT AND TROUGH ARE VERY PROGRESSIVE AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
PUSHES THESE FEATURES THROUGH VERY QUICKLY. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT THE MOST. ON THE HEELS OF THE
FRONT...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THINGS WILL START OUT A BIT
TRICKY AS A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM LEAVES THE AREA WILL DETERMINE
HOW LOW THE TEMPERATURES GO ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHWEST COULD
SEE SOME UPPER 40S WITH MID 50S TO THE SOUTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
50S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM THURSDAY...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS... BRINGING CALM TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH 06Z FRI... WITH SCT-BKN
VFR CLOUDS AT 5-7 KFT LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MINIMAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT. BUT AT RWI/RDU AND PERHAPS FAY... CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT... WITH A PERIOD
OF LIFR CONDITIONS (MOSTLY FOG BUT STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE) BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT QUICKLY WITH HEATING
BY 14Z... AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
THROUGH 06Z FRI.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MID
EVENING FRI. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN AND LOWER TO MVFR FRI
NIGHT... AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR... LASTING THROUGH EARLY SAT
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS (BEST STORM CHANCE NEAR FAY). VFR
CONDITIONS THEN ARE LIKELY FROM LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1242 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MINOT AND
BISMARCK ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND TRENDING/TIMING FOR ERODING OF CLOUDS. CLOUDS STILL
EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE JAMESTOWN AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR INDICATE LOW CLOUDS ERODING FROM WEST
TO EAST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED...ERODING IN
THE JAMES VALLEY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED LATEST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST WHERE SKIES WERE CLEARING. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR MORNING UPDATE WILL ADJUST LEADING EDGE
OF CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH COVERAGE ON THE WEST SIDE. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY`S
CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE SURFACE
REFLECTION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA GENERATING LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MISS MY
SOUTHWEST...NOT BY MUCH...IF MODELS ARE CORRECT SO KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY. LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WELL ADVERTISED BY MODELS THE PAST
24 HOURS.
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND ALL OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA NOW THROUGH 12-15Z BEFORE ERODING FROM WEST
TO EAST 15-19Z TODAY. THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PERHAPS A FEW AREAS OF FAIR-WEATHER CU. NOT A BAD FALL DAY AT
ALL WITH FORECAST HIGHS MID 60S WEST TO MID 50S EAST...ALONG WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10-15 MPH.
RETURN FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 30S EAST TO LOWER 40S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
A WARMING TREND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS PUSHING INTO THE 80S BY
SATURDAY.
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE AND
AFFILIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA...BRINGING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...THOUGH THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL AS MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME IN LINE WITH BRINGING IN
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT (45-50 KTS) AND MIXING THEM DOWN. HAVE
STARTED THE TREND OF INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST...AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED ON SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.
COOLER...THOUGH STILL NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS IN A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING A
SURFACE LOW CENTERED IN WISCONSIN. MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ERODE
FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUD SHIELD DID NOT REACH FAR WESTERN ND...SO
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK AND KISN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KMOT AND KBIS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND 18-
19Z...AND AT KJMS 22-24Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
940 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR INDICATE LOW CLOUDS ERODING FROM WEST
TO EAST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED...ERODING IN
THE JAMES VALLEY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED LATEST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST WHERE SKIES WERE CLEARING. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR MORNING UPDATE WILL ADJUST LEADING EDGE
OF CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH COVERAGE ON THE WEST SIDE. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY`S
CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE SURFACE
REFLECTION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA GENERATING LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MISS MY
SOUTHWEST...NOT BY MUCH...IF MODELS ARE CORRECT SO KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY. LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WELL ADVERTISED BY MODELS THE PAST
24 HOURS.
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND ALL OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA NOW THROUGH 12-15Z BEFORE ERODING FROM WEST
TO EAST 15-19Z TODAY. THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PERHAPS A FEW AREAS OF FAIR-WEATHER CU. NOT A BAD FALL DAY AT
ALL WITH FORECAST HIGHS MID 60S WEST TO MID 50S EAST...ALONG WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10-15 MPH.
RETURN FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 30S EAST TO LOWER 40S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
A WARMING TREND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS PUSHING INTO THE 80S BY
SATURDAY.
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE AND
AFFILIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA...BRINGING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...THOUGH THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL AS MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME IN LINE WITH BRINGING IN
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT (45-50 KTS) AND MIXING THEM DOWN. HAVE
STARTED THE TREND OF INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST...AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED ON SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.
COOLER...THOUGH STILL NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF IFR WILL SPREAD SOUTH
AND IMPACT KMOT-KBIS-KJMS THROUGH THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND MID-DAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
106 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE.
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE OVERNIGHT...BURNING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
FOR THIS UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN PARTS OF THE WEST TO
CAPTURE THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...AND DECIDED TO INTRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHWEST BASED ON LOWER CLOUDS FROM CANADA
ENCROACHING ON THE BORDER AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. OTHER THAN
THAT...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
MAIN CHANGES FOR UPDATE WERE TO TRIM BACK WESTERN EDGE OF POPS AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF CWA.
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN MCINTOSH COUNTY. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS
AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG CAPE AND 50KTS 0-6KM SHEAR OVER THIS AREA BUT
ANY STORMS HAVE REMAINED WEAK AND NOT WELL ORGANIZED. ALSO MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
EXPECT REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MOVING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE FOCUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A NARROW BAND ALONG THE FRONT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT IN A WEDGE THAT WILL LEAVE SOME CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE LOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING IN COOL AIR STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY COOL MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRFLOW OUT OF THE NORTH SHOULD
BRING STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES COOL
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE STATE. LOWERED HIGHS FROM MINOT TO
BISMARCK AND EAST A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS LOOK LIKE THE LOWER 50S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
BY THURSDAY EVENING A COOL SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE OVER THE
REGION...WITH CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST...WITH COOLEST AIR AND LIGHTEST WINDS OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND WINDS IN THE WEST BECOMING SOUTHERLY WITH THE
HIGH TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER...WITH LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN SURFACE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
LARGE AREA OF WARM AND DRY AIR TO CONTINUE PUSHING INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. AFTER A COOL DAY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER...WITH WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOW TO
MID 80S SOUTH.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH AND IMPACT KMOT-KBIS-KJMS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
LATE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
EXPANDED T MENTION FARTHER NORTH HOWEVER PCPN SHOULD BE EXITING
THE NE FA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. FARTHER SOUTH T WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS YET. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WITH REMAINDER OF
FORECAST OK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND CLOUD TRENDS BUT OVERALL FORECAST ON
TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
PCPN BAND PROGRESSIVE AND MAIN CHANGES WERE TRIMMING POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FA THROUGH THE EVENING. THUNDER CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND WILL LIMIT T MENTION TO THIS AREA. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH AS MOST AREAS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
TIMING AND PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN CURRENTLY. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST ENTERING NORTHWESTERN ND. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY DOWN
TOWARDS CENTRAL ND...AND WITH SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED CAPE...A FEW
HAVE GROWN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER. RAIN HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
SLOW TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR AT THE SFC...BUT WEB CAMS
SHOW SOME LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN GETTING HEAVIER RETURNS HAVE
BEEN SATURATED. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT BEEN DOING TOO BADLY
WITH THE POPS SO FOLLOWED THEIR TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THINK
THAT THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THINK WE WILL DRY OUT BY
MORNING AS THIS FAIRLY FAST MOVING SYSTEM MOVES BY. LOWERED PRECIP
AMOUNTS JUST A BIT AS SOME OF THE FIRST RAIN HAS NOT REACHED THE
GROUND...BUT THINK THAT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE AROUND A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH.
TOMORROW...THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY OFF INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
IT. THERE HAS BEEN SOME GOOD RH VALUES AT 850MB SO THINK THAT
CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED THURSDAY.
BETWEEN CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN THE
50S...WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT RATHER RAW. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS COULD
AGAIN GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. HAVE COORDINATED WITH
NEIGHBORS A CONTINUATION OF FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AT LEAST...BUT HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HEADLINES FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO
UPPER RIDGING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SFC WILL PICK
UP AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMING UP FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
60S...BUT READINGS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SATURDAY AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 C.
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD GET NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK ON
SATURDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY TIME FRAME WITH POPS WILL BE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO THE THE EARLY MONDAY HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE AND FROPA
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THAT WAVE WILL BE NEAR
RECORD WARM TEMPS ON SUNDAY...UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH IDEAL
WESTERLY SFC WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 15 TO 20C RANGE. BEHIND
THE FROPA TEMPS WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID OCTOBER...LOW TO MID 60S FOR MAX TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE LOWER CIGS WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER DVL. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STEADILY WRAPS LOWER
CIGS AROUND LOW AS IT SHIFTS EAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SD BORDER
AREA BY SUNRISE. NOT SURE IF CIGS WILL GET THAT FAR SOUTH BUT DID
MENTION A GRADUALLY LOWERING OF CIGS INTO MVFR RANGE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY OUT LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR HOPEFULLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
903 PM PDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED TONIGHT.
WE DID GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IN CURRY COUNTY TODAY, WITH
AMOUNTS FROM 0.08" TO AS MUCH AS 0.50" IN THE COAST RANGE. WHILE A
FEW SPITS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT, WE`LL BE WAITING UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR ANOTHER
DEFINITIVE ROUND OF RAINFALL.
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL SUITE INDICATES A TENTH TO A HALF
INCH OF RAIN FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES, DOUGLAS COUNTY, AND
WESTERN JOSEPHINE COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR AREAS EAST OF THERE INTO THE
CASCADES, AND TO ABOUT THE CREST OF THE SISKIYOUS AND MARBLE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 40 MPH AT THE USUALLY
WINDY SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST SIDE. BTL
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/18Z TAF CYCLE...INLAND...INLAND AREAS CAN
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE VALLEYS OF THE COASTAL RANGE
AND THE UMPQUA BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ALONG THE COAST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL AFFECT TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL FILL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DEGRADE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER TO IFR AND THEN LIFR. -BPN
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PDT FRIDAY, 9 OCT 2015...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND SOUTHWEST SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTS ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST FRONT. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY,
LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL FROM THE REMNANTS OF CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE OHO WILL ARRIVE. THIS 11 TO 14 FOOT SWELL AT 16 SECONDS
IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN 15 TO 20 FOOT BREAKER HEIGHTS. SWELL OF
THIS MAGNITUDE IS UNUSUAL FOR THIS AREA, AND A HAZARDOUS SEAS
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT SPSMFR HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED TO DISCUSS PROBABLE IMPACTS TO BEACH GOERS.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS, WHILE SEAS LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN
TO HAZARDOUS AND VERY STEEP CATEGORY AS THE SOUTHWEST SWELL
DECREASES BUT COMBINES WITH AN INCREASING LONGER PERIOD WEST
SWELL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 PM PDT FRIDAY, 9 OCT 2015... THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS HAS ARRIVED AT THE
COAST TODAY, BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THERE BEFORE
DISSIPATING TONIGHT. THIS HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME GUSTY WINDS TO
THE EAST SIDE TODAY. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, A STRONGER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ONTO THE COAST WITH SOME WETTING RAINFALL
EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND
ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY. WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY IN OTHER WEST
SIDE LOCATIONS...AND VERY UNLIKELY EAST OF THE CASCADES. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY
FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE CRITICAL. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. -BPN/SK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM PDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CONCERN AHEAD WILL AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL TONIGHT WITH HIGH AND STEEP SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.WHILE THE SWELL IS NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE ANY
SURF ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS, IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNEAKER
WAVES. SEE PDXSPSMFR AND PDXMWSMFR FOR DETAILS.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS NEAR THE COAST AND WILL MOVE INLAND
THIS EVENING. SO FAR, NO RETURNS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON THE RADAR AND
NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT ANY OF THE SURFACE OBS. THE 12Z NAM AND
GFS SHOW A WEAK FRONT REACHING THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING
INLAND THIS EVENING. THE NAM IS BULLISH WITH THE QPF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT SUSPECT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. IN CONTRAST THE GFS
IS DRY AND THE CURRENT RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS AT
THE COAST, MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND LITTLE IS ANYTHING OVERNIGHT.
THIS EVENINGS FRONT WILL BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG FURTHER ON SATURDAY AND MOVE INLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONGER FRONT THAT IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY A 100KT JET WILL REACH THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
THEN MOVE INLAND SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE AT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS, NORTH CASCADES
AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER, BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.
AT THE SAME TIME 700MB WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND COULD PEAK
OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME OF
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL SURFACE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THEREFORE
GUSTY WINDS ARE A GOOD BET, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NEAR SUMMER LAKE AND WILL BE STRONGEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES
COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA, SO ITS SOMETHING THAT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY WEAK UPPER RIDGING SUNDAY. ANY RAINFALL WILL END EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH DRYING AND MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE EC AND GFS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE REGION STARTING NEXT MONDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND
WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH VARYING AMOUNTS
OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST, THEREFORE IT`S POSSIBLE
WE COULD HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTH COAST DEPENDING ON
THE POSITION OF THE THERMAL TROUGH. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
- GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.
$$
BTL/JRS/MAP/BPN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1254 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
TWO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY...1) MORE PESSIMISM WITH DEGREE
OF CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST...AND 2) ADDITION OF A BIT STRONGER PRECIP MENTION
ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTH.
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA AT THIS
POINT IN THE MORNING...AS MAIN UPPER WAVE IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER UPSTREAM JET STREAK DIGGING
ACROSS MONTANA...AND THIS IMPULSE WILL PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS LINKS THE TWO FEATURES...AND HAVE SEEN A SCATTERING
OF VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. FAIRLY UNLIKELY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH
A FAIR DEGREE OF DRYING BELOW THE MID LAYER. SOME OF THIS WILL
LIKELY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SLIPPING SOUTHWARD. BETTER UPPER FORCING LOOKS TO TREND
JUST A BIT SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND GIVEN THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF DRYING BELOW THE MID
DECK...WILL FOREGO ADDING IN ANY MENTIONABLE LATER DAY/EARLY
EVENING POPS TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND PROGRESSION HAS BEEN TO ENCROACH INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID MORNING. FLOW BELOW INVERSION
STARTS TO TAKE ON MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND RAP/NAM/HRRR
INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY DISTINCT LAYER OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME A STRONGER FEATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY...AND PERHAPS WELL INTO THE EVENING EAST OF I 29.
STILL LOOKING AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND IN MIXED LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON...SO CURRENT WIND GUSTS EXPECTATIONS ON TRACK. WITH
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...DID NOTCH BACK HIGH TEMPS A BIT...OR WORK IN
A STEADYING TO SLIGHT FALL ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MANY LOCATIONS MIXING BEHIND BOUNDARY AND SHOULD
APPROACH HIGHS PRIOR TO ADVANCE OF STRATUS FIELD FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
AS THE FRONT FINISHES MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE AREA NEXT FEW
HOURS...IT IS STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE LINGERING INSTABILITY...AND WITH A FEW
NARROW BANDS OF MID CLOUDS/POSSIBLY ACCAS MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN/MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE HRRR KEEPS
TRYING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKE
ISOLATED IF ANYTHING. THIS SHOULD ALL BE OUT BY 12Z/7 AM CDT.
THE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
COULD STILL BRING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...AND
THIS COULD INCLUDE THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR AREA DURING THE
DAY...SO HAVE LEFT THE SMALL POPS IN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CASE FOR
GOING WITH JUST SPRINKLES. THE CLOUD DECK OF COURSE WILL REACH
SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEFORE DECENT
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH THE BREEZY CATEGORY TODAY WITH WINDS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER THAN WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...OR NOT TOO MUCH
WARMING FROM THE VERY MILD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
THE CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOW 40S SOUTH...AGAIN HOLDING
ABOVE FROSTY LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO
SURPASS SEASONAL NORMAL BY 10 OR MORE DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...WITH
VERY BALMY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONLY REASONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE REGION. A
SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM GOM MOISTURE...IT WILL HAVE TO RELY SOLELY ON
MOISTURE IT CAN DRAG ACROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
FOR NOW...PREFER THE DRIER GFS OVER THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS DO
SUGGEST VERY LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SD
INTO CENTRAL MN INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIKELY THE BIG STORY FOR
MONDAY WILL BE VERY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED
WINDS PUSH 20-30 MPH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...OCCASIONAL
GUSTS COULD PUSH 40 TO 45 MPH AS WE QUICKLY MIX OUT MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS IN THAT PORTION OF THE FCST.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK...A CONTINUED WARM PATTERN
WILL PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CYCLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLOWLY DISSIPATING ON THE BACK EDGE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MOST CERTAIN
FOR IMPACTS AT KHON IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM...AND KFSD FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. KSUX WOULD APPEAR TO BE JUST
OUTSIDE A MORE CERTAIN TRAJECTORY...AND HAVE KEPT LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED AT THIS TIME FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY
ATTAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1028 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
TWO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY...1) MORE PESSIMISM WITH DEGREE
OF CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST...AND 2) ADDITION OF A BIT STRONGER PRECIP MENTION
ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTH.
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA AT THIS
POINT IN THE MORNING...AS MAIN UPPER WAVE IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER UPSTREAM JET STREAK DIGGING
ACROSS MONTANA...AND THIS IMPULSE WILL PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS LINKS THE TWO FEATURES...AND HAVE SEEN A SCATTERING
OF VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. FAIRLY UNLIKELY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH
A FAIR DEGREE OF DRYING BELOW THE MID LAYER. SOME OF THIS WILL
LIKELY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SLIPPING SOUTHWARD. BETTER UPPER FORCING LOOKS TO TREND
JUST A BIT SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND GIVEN THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF DRYING BELOW THE MID
DECK...WILL FOREGO ADDING IN ANY MENTIONABLE LATER DAY/EARLY
EVENING POPS TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND PROGRESSION HAS BEEN TO ENCROACH INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID MORNING. FLOW BELOW INVERSION
STARTS TO TAKE ON MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND RAP/NAM/HRRR
INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY DISTINCT LAYER OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME A STRONGER FEATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY...AND PERHAPS WELL INTO THE EVENING EAST OF I 29.
STILL LOOKING AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND IN MIXED LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON...SO CURRENT WIND GUSTS EXPECTATIONS ON TRACK. WITH
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...DID NOTCH BACK HIGH TEMPS A BIT...OR WORK IN
A STEADYING TO SLIGHT FALL ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MANY LOCATIONS MIXING BEHIND BOUNDARY AND SHOULD
APPROACH HIGHS PRIOR TO ADVANCE OF STRATUS FIELD FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
AS THE FRONT FINISHES MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE AREA NEXT FEW
HOURS...IT IS STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE LINGERING INSTABILITY...AND WITH A FEW
NARROW BANDS OF MID CLOUDS/POSSIBLY ACCAS MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN/MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE HRRR KEEPS
TRYING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKE
ISOLATED IF ANYTHING. THIS SHOULD ALL BE OUT BY 12Z/7 AM CDT.
THE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
COULD STILL BRING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...AND
THIS COULD INCLUDE THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR AREA DURING THE
DAY...SO HAVE LEFT THE SMALL POPS IN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CASE FOR
GOING WITH JUST SPRINKLES. THE CLOUD DECK OF COURSE WILL REACH
SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEFORE DECENT
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH THE BREEZY CATEGORY TODAY WITH WINDS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER THAN WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...OR NOT TOO MUCH
WARMING FROM THE VERY MILD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
THE CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOW 40S SOUTH...AGAIN HOLDING
ABOVE FROSTY LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO
SURPASS SEASONAL NORMAL BY 10 OR MORE DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...WITH
VERY BALMY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONLY REASONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE REGION. A
SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM GOM MOISTURE...IT WILL HAVE TO RELY SOLELY ON
MOISTURE IT CAN DRAG ACROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
FOR NOW...PREFER THE DRIER GFS OVER THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS DO
SUGGEST VERY LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SD
INTO CENTRAL MN INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIKELY THE BIG STORY FOR
MONDAY WILL BE VERY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED
WINDS PUSH 20-30 MPH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...OCCASIONAL
GUSTS COULD PUSH 40 TO 45 MPH AS WE QUICKLY MIX OUT MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS IN THAT PORTION OF THE FCST.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK...A CONTINUED WARM PATTERN
WILL PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
VFR THROUGH 09/1200. CEILINGS GENERALLY ABV 10K FT OVER THE AREA WITH
SCT CLDS 3-5K FT AGL EAST. A FEW SURFACE GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FROM
THE NW 15Z-10/00Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
AS THE FRONT FINISHES MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE AREA NEXT FEW
HOURS...IT IS STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE LINGERING INSTABILITY...AND WITH A FEW
NARROW BANDS OF MID CLOUDS/POSSIBLY ACCAS MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN/MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE HRRR KEEPS
TRYING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKE
ISOLATED IF ANYTHING. THIS SHOULD ALL BE OUT BY 12Z/7 AM CDT.
THE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
COULD STILL BRING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...AND
THIS COULD INCLUDE THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR AREA DURING THE
DAY...SO HAVE LEFT THE SMALL POPS IN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CASE FOR
GOING WITH JUST SPRINKLES. THE CLOUD DECK OF COURSE WILL REACH
SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEFORE DECENT
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH THE BREEZY CATEGORY TODAY WITH WINDS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER THAN WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...OR NOT TOO MUCH
WARMING FROM THE VERY MILD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
THE CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOW 40S SOUTH...AGAIN HOLDING
ABOVE FROSTY LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO
SURPASS SEASONAL NORMAL BY 10 OR MORE DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...WITH
VERY BALMY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONLY REASONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE REGION. A
SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM GOM MOISTURE...IT WILL HAVE TO RELY SOLELY ON
MOISTURE IT CAN DRAG ACROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
FOR NOW...PREFER THE DRIER GFS OVER THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS DO
SUGGEST VERY LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SD
INTO CENTRAL MN INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIKELY THE BIG STORY FOR
MONDAY WILL BE VERY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED
WINDS PUSH 20-30 MPH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...OCCASIONAL
GUSTS COULD PUSH 40 TO 45 MPH AS WE QUICKLY MIX OUT MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS IN THAT PORTION OF THE FCST.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK...A CONTINUED WARM PATTERN
WILL PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
VFR THROUGH 09/1200. CEILINGS GENERALLY ABV 10K FT OVER THE AREA WITH
SCT CLDS 3-5K FT AGL EAST. A FEW SURFACE GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FROM
THE NW 15Z-10/00Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
304 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
AS THE FRONT FINISHES MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE AREA NEXT FEW
HOURS...IT IS STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE LINGERING INSTABILITY...AND WITH A FEW
NARROW BANDS OF MID CLOUDS/POSSIBLY ACCAS MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN/MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE HRRR KEEPS
TRYING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKE
ISOLATED IF ANYTHING. THIS SHOULD ALL BE OUT BY 12Z/7 AM CDT.
THE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
COULD STILL BRING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...AND
THIS COULD INCLUDE THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR AREA DURING THE
DAY...SO HAVE LEFT THE SMALL POPS IN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CASE FOR
GOING WITH JUST SPRINKLES. THE CLOUD DECK OF COURSE WILL REACH
SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEFORE DECENT
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH THE BREEZY CATEGORY TODAY WITH WINDS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER THAN WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...OR NOT TOO MUCH
WARMING FROM THE VERY MILD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
THE CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOW 40S SOUTH...AGAIN HOLDING
ABOVE FROSTY LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO
SURPASS SEASONAL NORMAL BY 10 OR MORE DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...WITH
VERY BALMY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONLY REASONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE REGION. A
SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM GOM MOISTURE...IT WILL HAVE TO RELY SOLELY ON
MOISTURE IT CAN DRAG ACROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
FOR NOW...PREFER THE DRIER GFS OVER THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS DO
SUGGEST VERY LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SD
INTO CENTRAL MN INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIKELY THE BIG STORY FOR
MONDAY WILL BE VERY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED
WINDS PUSH 20-30 MPH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...OCCASIONAL
GUSTS COULD PUSH 40 TO 45 MPH AS WE QUICKLY MIX OUT MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS IN THAT PORTION OF THE FCST.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK...A CONTINUED WARM PATTERN
WILL PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14 OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE
THURSDAY MORNING GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AT TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
705 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
REMOVED THE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ZONE GROUPING FROM THE ZONE FORECAST
PRODUCT. LATEST HRRR SHORT RANGE MODEL REALLY INITIALIZES WELL
WITH CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR MOSIAC IMAGERY AND SEEMS REASONABLE
IN PATTERN EVOLUTION TONIGHT. BELIEVE MOST OF MID STATE WILL
EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF SHWRS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
HRS...AS TSTM POTENTIAL HAS ENDED IN POST FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS
MID STATE. DECREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NW
AND W PORTIONS OF AREA IN VICINITY OF TN RIVER VALLEY TO BEGIN
LATE THIS EVENING. A SLOW DECREASING CLOUDINESS TREND WILL OCCUR
W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT ALSO AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
REGION...WITH A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS MAINLY THE
PLATEAU AND SRN MID STATE REMAINING AS THE EARLY MORNING HRS ON
SAT PROGRESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE
TONIGHT...BUT THEY MAY DIE DOWN ENOUGH...WITH CLRING SKIES...ACROSS
NW HALF OF MID STATE TO SUPPORT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY MORNING
THRU MID MORNING HRS ON SAT IN AT LEAST THOSE LOCATIONS. CURRENT
TEMP TRENDS GENERALLY REMAINING IN LINE WITH FORECASTED LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT ACROSS THE MID STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT DID
NOT MAKE AT THIS TIME CHANGES TO FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOW VALUES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS
COLD FRONT ALONG THE PLATEAU INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA WITH LINE OF
TSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT. BROKEN AREA OF TRAILING SHOWERS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 ALL THE WAY TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL WORK EASTWARD THIS EVENING. BACK EDGE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD REACH CLARKSVILLE 05Z-06Z TIME FRAME AND NASHVILLE
06Z-07Z AND WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO PULL OFF PLATEAU PROBABLY
AFTER 13Z-14Z. EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO CLARKSVILLE
AND NASHVILLE SHORTLY AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AT
CROSSVILLE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z BUT NOT LIKELY TO GO VFR AT CROSSVILLE
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT KEEPING NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE MID STATE WITH A FEW
GUSTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
$$
31
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS
VFR. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH OUT WEST AT KDRT...WHERE INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
WE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME THICK
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS JUST YET. WINDS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NO SHORT TERM IMPACTS EXPECTED AS DRIER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING TO
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARDS THE BAJA OF MEXICO. A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
WAS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THAT WILL USER IN A DRIER
AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY/FRONT IS NOTED NORTH OF THE
REGION ALONG A DALLAS TO MIDLAND LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK DUE TO TO HIGHER CLOUDS
FROM THE PREVIOUS COMPLEX. HAVE PLACED A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH 7PM FOR THIS ACTIVITY. SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SHOWERS TO DRIZZLE ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
BUT NO TRUE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE LAST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AND BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS FALLING
TO 1.3-1.5". THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
READINGS WILL BE NEAR 10F OVER THE TYPICAL VALUES THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MAX HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AREA WIDE. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SOURCES OF LIFT OR INSTABILITY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY
DESPITE BEING BRUSHED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST
SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING
SOME RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK...MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A DEEPER
ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL AID A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARDS AND THROUGH
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN NEAR LOCK STEP
WITH EACH OTHER INDICATING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS EARLIER OR LATER COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF TSTORM STRENGTH. AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER...AVAILABLE THERMODYNAMICS WOULD SUPPORT SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT OVERALL SET UP
WOULD NOT FAVOR A FLOODING OR SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME. HAVE PLACED
20-30% TSTORM CHANCES AND WILL MONITOR TIMING/PARAMETER TRENDS.
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S-30S WHICH
WOULD DROP THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL AS MORNING
LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS COULD DROP INTO THE LOW 50S
FOR NORTH HALF AND INTO THE HILL COUNTRY THOSE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S. PWATS WILL DROP TO THE LOWEST THEY HAVE BEEN THIS FALL
SEASON WITH READINGS BELOW 0.3" IN THE NORTH. THIS LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NIL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 90 68 94 72 / 20 - - - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 66 90 63 94 67 / 20 - - - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 66 95 69 / 20 - - - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 66 87 65 94 70 / 30 - - - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 68 88 69 91 69 / 30 - - - 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 66 88 64 93 70 / 20 - - - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 91 66 94 68 / 20 - - - 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 90 65 93 68 / 20 - - - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 90 64 93 70 / 20 - - - 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 70 91 68 93 70 / 20 - - - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 71 92 68 95 70 / 20 - - - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
358 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TODAY...
TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER...MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS EAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER
LAYERED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT PRODUCING
A BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS NORTHWEST WI INTO EAST CENTRAL
MN. THIS BAND MOVING EAST AS WELL. WV IMAGERY SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW/FORCING/LIFT MOVING EAST NEAR THE MN/ONT
BORDER. INCREASING CLOUDS/SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/COLD
FRONT KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH EARLY
MORNING TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THE MILD SIDE FOR
EARLY OCT.
MODEL RUNS OF 08.00Z HAVE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. MODELS OFFER A
TIGHT CONSENSUS OF SOLUTIONS TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/ENERGY DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY THEN AS THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. TREND FAVORS FURTHER NORTH OF EARLIER MODELS WITH
THE ENERGY TO CROSS LK SUPERIOR TODAY AND A COMPROMISE OF EARLIER
RUNS ON THE TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THIS CYCLE...THOUGH THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME TODAY IS SHIFTED FROM
WHAT WAS EXPECTED 24 HRS AGO.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER SOUTHERN BC/ALB AROUND
07.06Z HAS MAINTAINED A MORE NORTHERN TRACK SINCE CROSSING THE
ROCKIES. MAIN FORCING/LIFT...FROM 925-700MB WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND THETA-E CONVERGENCE TO 500-300MB QG CONVERGENCE AND PV ADVECTION
PASSES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF WI MAINLY THIS MORNING. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED...MAIN FORCING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
FCST AREA IS SFC-700MB QG/FN/ THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND SOME WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SFC-700MB LAPSE RATES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STEEPEN THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 500-750 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER TIGHT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS THE FRONT/FORCING/INSTABILITY EXITING SOUTH/EAST OF
THE FCST AREA BY 22Z...ABOUT THE TIME SOME CAPPING NEAR/JUST ABOVE
850MB WOULD BE OVERCOME. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHEST SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 09-15Z THIS
MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF THE DEEPER LAYERED FORCING. 20-50 PERCENT
CHANCES TIED TO PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ELSEWHERE LOOK GOOD WITH
SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN CHANCE GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MDT TO STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOOKING TO BE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY SHRA/TSRA WOULD MOVE THRU...
WITH STEADY/SLOWLY FALL TEMPS FOR THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. POST
SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONTAL NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW SPREADS THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CU CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. 925MB TEMPS FALL
TO THE +5C TO +7C RANGE BY 12Z FRI FOR WHAT WOULD BE A CHILLY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE CLOUD BLANKET AND TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT FOR NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THRU THE NIGHT LOOKING TO
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. EVEN
WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT...LOWS LOOKING TO BE ABOVE
THE NORMALS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
FOR FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES...WINDS ON SATURDAY.
08.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR RISING HGTS ACROSS THE REGION
THRU THIS PERIOD AS THE OVERALL NOAM FLOW PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE.
SOME SIGNAL FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO COME ACROSS WA/ID/MT THRU
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGING THU NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS
FOR THIS ENERGY TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS FRI/FRI NIGHT...
WELL WEST OF THE FCST AREA. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT NIGHT...WHICH
WILL PLAY INTO MONDAY FCST. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND A
RATHER QUIET WEATHER PERIOD...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE FRI-SAT NIGHT
PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
RISING HGTS/SFC HIGH PRESSURE/LOW LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BUILDING
IN FRI SHOULD CLEAR THE THU NIGHT STRATUS CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA FRI
MORNING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. A
COOLER DAY FRI WITH 925MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE 8C TO 10C RANGE AT 00Z
SAT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE DURING THE EVENING. QUESTION THEN BECOMES
WILL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS RE-COUPLE AFTER 06Z AS THE HIGH SLIPS AWAY
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE. INCREASING 925-850MB
WARM ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL THRU FRI NIGHT. TEMPS
LOOKING TO DIP RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...THEN BECOME
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF SFC WINDS RE-
COUPLE. DID ADD PATCHY FROST TO LOW LAYING AREAS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF
I-94 WHERE WINDS LIKELY TO STAY DECOUPLED THE LONGEST. HIGH
CONTINUES MOVING AWAY SAT WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
IT AND LOW PRESSURE IN CAN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. 925MB WINDS IN
THE 30-35KT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DIURNAL MIXING TO AROUND 900MB. SAT AFTERNOON TO BE BREEZY/WINDY AND
CONTINUED TREND OF SOME 25-30MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE FCST GRIDS.
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MIXING SAT...WITH A STRONG DIURNAL TEMP
RISE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FLOW. AFTER A COOL
START...HIGHS SAT LOOKING TO BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70. GRADIENT OVER THE RELAXES A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT BUT STILL
ENOUGH FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED. WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...SAT NIGHT LOWS
TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI AND FRI/SAT NIGHTS. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS SAT.
FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD...WINDS
SUN/MON...RAIN CHANCES WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 08.00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN...PUSHING
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE REGION. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BUT OVER ALL IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR THIS TROUGH TO DIG INTO MN SUN
NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MON. GENERAL TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY. DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUE THEN
BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST TROUGHING FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NOAM FOR
WED. WITH REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT THRU WED...THE DAY 4-7 FCST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.
WARMEST OF THE 925-850MB AIRMASS IS OVER THE AREA ON SUN...AHEAD OF
THE SFC-500MB TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NAEFS
850MB MEAN TEMP PROGGED TO BE 1.5 TO 2.5 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
SUN AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 925MB WIND FIELD AGAIN SUPPORTS
A BREEZING/WINDY DAY WITH GUSTS 25-30MPH FOR GOOD DIURNAL MIXING.
SUNDAY LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS JUST BELOW THE
RECORDS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. PASSING LOW/TROUGH SUN
NIGHT/MON TO SEND A ROUND OF STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT AFTER SUNDAY...ONLY DROPS TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK
WITH...WITH ECMWF MORE ROBUST ON THE 925-700MB MOISTURE/SATURATION.
ECMWF PRODUCES SOME RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
MON...VS. GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS MOISTURE-STARVED AND DRY.
LEFT MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS RAIN CHANCES IN MON GRIDS FOR NOW.
EITHER WAY...MON TRENDING TO BE ANOTHER BREEZY/WINDY DAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS. BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS SYSTEMS MOVING NEXT
WEEK...WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BACK IN THE REGION ON TUE THEN
COLD ADVECTION AGAIN WED AS LOWS/TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CAN.
DID TREND TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS SUN...OTHERWISE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS THRU THE PERIOD LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS AND
WAS JUST ENTERING INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING. THE
08.00Z NAM INDICATES VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE WAVE AND BEST DYNAMICS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS
BY TO THE NORTH OF BOTH TAF SITES. THE NEW NAM AND THE RUNS OF THE
HRRR THROUGH THE EVENING HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF KEEPING THE
SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE KRST COULD
GET MISSED COMPLETELY BY THE RAIN SO HAVE DROPPED BACK TO JUST A
VCSH THERE. THE HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT KLSE COULD GET
CLIPPED BY PASSING SHOWER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE NAM WOULD
KEEP IT DRY. DECIDED TO TAKE OUT THE CATEGORICAL RAIN FOR KLSE AND
JUST COVER THE SMALL RAIN CHANCE WITH A TEMPO GROUP. STILL EXPECTING
SOME GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE NEW NAM HAS ALSO
CONTINUED THE TREND OF BRINGING IN A MVFR CLOUD DECK IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FIELD AND HAVE BROUGHT THIS IN FOR THURSDAY EVENING
AT BOTH SITES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS MIXED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SO EXPECTING THE GUSTS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS
WELL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
TOOK A FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE STEP TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY SOUTH AND WEST OF LA CROSSE. CONSENSUS SIGNALS ARE
POINTING TO WISCONSIN...AND NORTH OF I-90 FOR RAIN.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE SEEN IN GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SCREAMING FOR THE GREAT LAKES. RADAR SHOWING STORMS
OVER ND...MORE THAN MANY OF THE HIGHER RES CAMS HAD FORECAST AT
19Z. LIGHTNING INTO ND-CANADA TOO AND REALLY AGREES WELL WITH
300-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PER RAP 07.18Z RUN. THIS ALL IN AN
SPC ANALYSIS OF 100-250 J/KG OF MUCAPE. NOT TO GIVE AWAY THE END
OF MY STORY...BUT THAT QG SIGNAL CARRIES THROUGH NRN WI...MAINLY
NORTH OF I-94 BY 12Z THURSDAY.
THE ND STORMS ALSO ARE FORMING IN AN AREA OF GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS.
SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL THERE AS WELL WITH 3-4 MB
FALLS AHEAD OF A N-S WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
TRENDS BOTH IN THE OBSERVATIONS AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CARRY THE FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH RAINFALL TRENDS
FOLLOWING SUIT. THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SIGNAL ALOFT...LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL POINT TOWARD A GOOD
SYNOPTICALLY FORCED RAIN/EMBEDDED TSRA WAVE THURSDAY ACROSS
WISCONSIN...BUT MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. FURTHER SOUTH...THE BEST
FORCING SEEMS TO BE COLD FRONTAL THETAE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS. HOWEVER...THAT IS THE LAYER THAT IS THE DRIEST WITH
RELATIVELY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE SURFACE TO 2 KM LAYER.
THUS...THERE ARE ISSUES WITH SATURATION. THE MID-LEVELS HAVE SOME
SATURATION AND THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY OF ABOUT 500 J/KG.
OVERALL...TIMING TRENDS REMAINED THE SAME WITH MAINLY MORNING RAIN
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED FORCING
AND CONSENSUS HI RES CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING LIMITED
RAIN COVERAGE WEST AND SOUTH OF LA CROSSE...THINKING AN ISOLATED
TO SCT LINE OF SHRA-TSRA IS THE BEST WE ARE GOING TO DO ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. THAT LINE WOULD AFFECT A GIVEN SPOT FOR AN HOUR. BEEN
WATCHING THE HRRR BOULDER VERSION AND IT REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THIS THU MORNING FORECAST.
THUS...HAVE BACKED THE RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 50 PERCENT SOUTH
OF ABOUT I-90...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT INCREASING NORTHWARD. HAVE
ALSO LOWERED THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THAT LOWER RAIN CHANCE AREA.
THE FRONT MAY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVATED WORKING INTO SW WI WHERE
A BIT OF INSTABILITY WILL GROW. SPC HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK...AND IT SEEMS REALLY MARGINAL PROVIDED THE FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT BY 3-4 PM /OF GRANT COUNTY/. FOR THE MOST PART...THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA HAS A SIMILAR FORECAST TO EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD
ADVECTION KICKS IN POST-FRONTALLY ON THURSDAY WITH BRISK
CONDITIONS...DRAWING A LOWER CLOUD DECK IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
THIS PERIOD IS MAINLY DRY WITH RIDGE BUILDING AND MAINLY WEAK
WAVES TRYING TO GENERATE WEATHER. THE EMPHASIS WAS REALLY ON
LOOKING FOR POSSIBLE DAYS FOR DRY FALL FIRE STARTS. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE WARM ADVECTIVE DAYS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HAVE
INCREASED THESE A BIT WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE
SATURDAY. THIS COULD HAPPEN SUNDAY AS WELL...AS A WARM PROD OF AIR
MOVES OFF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...A GREAT
FLOW FOR UNUSUALLY WARMTH. HAVE BUMPED HIGHS SUNDAY TO JUST BELOW
RECORD LEVELS WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...CLOSER TO THE HOT AIR.
A MODERATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY BUT THE VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT IS BATTLING THE DYNAMICS. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO A BIT COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP OUR EYES ON THIS ONE AS IT SEEMS IT COULD
PRODUCE SOME RAIN...EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL FORECAST CONSENSUS IS
DRY. BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A WIND PRODUCER WITH ANOTHER 20-30 MPH DAY.
AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...ALREADY DRY...WILL REALLY NEED RAIN AFTER
THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS
AND WAS JUST ENTERING INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING.
THE 08.00Z NAM INDICATES VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE WAVE AND BEST DYNAMICS STILL
EXPECTED TO PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF BOTH TAF SITES. THE NEW NAM
AND THE RUNS OF THE HRRR THROUGH THE EVENING HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF KEEPING THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE KRST COULD GET MISSED COMPLETELY BY THE RAIN SO HAVE
DROPPED BACK TO JUST A VCSH THERE. THE HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT KLSE COULD GET CLIPPED BY PASSING SHOWER EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE NAM WOULD KEEP IT DRY. DECIDED TO TAKE
OUT THE CATEGORICAL RAIN FOR KLSE AND JUST COVER THE SMALL RAIN
CHANCE WITH A TEMPO GROUP. STILL EXPECTING SOME GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE NEW NAM HAS ALSO CONTINUED THE TREND OF
BRINGING IN A MVFR CLOUD DECK IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FIELD
AND HAVE BROUGHT THIS IN FOR THURSDAY EVENING AT BOTH SITES. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS MIXED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO
EXPECTING THE GUSTS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS WELL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1113 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015
...NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...
ANOTHER PLEASANT FALL DAY ACROSS SE CO. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A BROAD AND FLAT LEE
TROUGH BUILDING E OF THE MTS. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
THIS EVE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW OVER SRN WY AND UT MOVES THROUGH
THE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER ERN CO. SOME CU BUILD-UP CURRENTLY OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND LA GARITAS...SO WILL LEAVE LOW POPS INTACT FOR THE SW
MTS THIS EVE AS THIS AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP AT THIS TIME. LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER EL PASO THIS EVE...BUT NOT SEEING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CU IN THAT AREA RIGHT NOW SO WILL LEAVE POPS
SILENT OVER PIKES PEAK AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ONCE THE WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVE SHOULD SEE ALL BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT...CLEARING THE WAY FOR A DRY AND WARM SATURDAY.
TOMORROW...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR BUILDUPS POSSIBLY OVER THE SW
MTS...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY EVEN OVER THE MTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. WITH H7 TEMPS CLIMBING TO 13 OR 14
DEG C OVER THE PLAINS...WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH FORECAST MAX
TFOR KCOS AND KPUB OF 82 AND 87 RESPECTIVELY...AND RECORD MAX
TEMPS OF 84 AND 89 FOR THE SAME SITES. WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH NO STRONG DOWN-SLOPE EXPECTED...SO FEEL TI WILL BE TOUGH TO
BREAK THE RECORD HIGHS TOMORROW...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE...AND VERY
WARM WITH MAX TEMPS A GOOD 15 DEG OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE TOMORROW.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE START OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015
WITH A FLAT UPR RIDGE OVERHEAD ON SUN AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE
FLOW...DRY AND WARM WEATHER WL CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPS ON SUN ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...AND AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO REACHING RECORD HIGHS.
SUN NIGHT AS AN UPR TROF MOVES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES...A FRONT WL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SERN CO. THIS FRONT
WL BRING A BIG COOL DOWN FOR MON...BUT THE HIGH TEMPS WL STILL BE
AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. DRY CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE ON MON.
AN UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVR AZ AND THE GREAT BASIN TUE AND
WED...AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVR NM AND CO FOR THU AS AN UPR
TROF MOVES OVR SRN CA. A WEAK SFC FRONT MAY BACK INTO ERN CO EARLY
THU. THIS UPR RIDGE WL KEEP DRY AIR OVR THE AREA TUE THRU THU. ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT ON
THU WL LIKELY BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM TUE AND WED.
ON FRI...THE UPR TROF THAT WAS OVR CA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AZ
AND NV AND MAY PUSH A LITTLE MOISTURE INTO CO. AS A RESULT...THERE
COULD BE A FEW MOUNTAINS SHOWERS/TSTMS ON FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS OVER SRN CO.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
345 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THIS IS TAKING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA ALONG WITH ITS PASSAGE. POST FRONTAL
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS SEEPING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST
KENTUCKY ON LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. READINGS CURRENTLY
VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS IN THE
OBS AND ON WEB CAMS OF SOME FOG STARTING TO FORM IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT NOT MUCH...SO FAR.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EVENING. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. ATTENTION IS THEN DRAWN TO
A DEVELOPING STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
THAT EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR FORECAST DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH BY MID MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING BY
AFTERNOON. THE CHANGE OF AIR MASSES TODAY WILL MEAN COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES WILL LIKELY PROVIDE FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ALONG WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING BY DAWN. LOOK FOR A SMALL TO MODERATE
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COLDEST VALLEYS
MAY SEE READINGS DOWN AROUND 40 DEGREES OR EVEN INTO THE UPPER 30S
WITH PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...SHOULD THE SKIES
STAY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T
AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
THROUGH SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME RELATIVE ELEVATION BASED
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ADDRESSING THE RIDGE AND
VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO
CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WITH NEAR ZERO VALUES
THEREAFTER...ALSO IN LINE WITH MOS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN ELONGATE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH A WELL
DEVELOPED TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS CANADIAN BORDER. THE
RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...AS AN ILL DEFINED
AND FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS. THE FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE SURFACE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS
TIME. THE FORECAST ISSUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE JUST HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT TO INTERACT WITH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO DETERMINE HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE. AT THIS TIME...THE
GFS MODEL KEEPS EASTERN KENTUCKY ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY DURING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEING THE ONLY
INDICATION THAT THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...KEEPS THINGS DRY AT FIRST...BUT THEN PRODUCES A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE
FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. BASED ON THIS
UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED TO USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODEL DATA TO CREATE THE POP FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. THIS BLEND PRODUCED A MAX POP OF 30 PERCENT AND HAS EASTERN
KENTUCKY RAIN FREE BY 15Z ON TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE
DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE ON TRACK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE BOARD BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. A CANADIAN AIR MASS IS
FORECAST TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTER A NEAR
NORMAL DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED...A
STEADY COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. DAILY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. LOWS MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MIN READINGS AROUND 50 ON TAP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
LOOK FOR THE CIGS TO GENERALLY LOWER AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
OF THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS A CIGS LOWER AND SOME FOG
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE COOLER AIR MASS POURING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
FAR SOUTH THROUGH DAWN. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
BY MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH TODAY. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SLOWLY EAST THEN NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...
STILL EXPECTING RAIN TO OVERSPREAD SRN NC FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING... WITH LESSER COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH... AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD
AND DEEPENS TO A CLOSED LOW OVER GA/SC. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT STILL NW OF NC... WITH A WEAK OUTFLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WHICH A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NOW TRACKING ESE
THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. THE LOSS OF HEATING AND EASTWARD SHIFT IN
SUPPORTIVE SHEAR HAS LED TO A GENERAL DISSIPATION OF THESE
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS. BUT RAIN WILL START TO RAMP BACK UP THIS MORNING
AS THE PRECIP SHIELD NOW COVERING CENTRAL/ERN TN / NRN AL / NRN GA
AND FAR WRN NC MOVES EASTWARD. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A COMMON
SOLUTION IN WHICH THE MOST STEADY AND WIDESPREAD RAIN TRACKS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 64... LEAVING MORE PATCHY AND LIGHTER PRECIP TO ITS
NORTH... REASONABLE CONSIDERING THAT THE BEST DPVA WILL BE ACROSS
SRN NC INTO SC... WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS GA/SC. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE PEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JETLET OVER THE FAR NRN GULF WILL TRACK ACROSS
SC AND ADJACENT NC THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
A SOUTHWARD FOCUS OF BEST COVERAGE AND QPF... HAVE MAINTAINED
CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH QPF
OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH... WHILE ACROSS THE NORTH... WILL HAVE
LOWER POPS OF 50-70% AND TOTAL QPF OF A TENTH TO HALF INCH. EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE FAR NRN AND WRN CWA THIS
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW ALONG THE
FRONT SHIFTS OFF THE SC COAST... FORCING SURFACE WINDS TO BACK OVER
CENTRAL NC... DRAWING IN DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. THE MID-UPPER LEVELS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS WELL WITH THE SLOW ONSET OF SUBSIDENCE...
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE QUITE SLOW TO DRIFT OFF THE NRN
SC / SRN NC COAST LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OVER THE ERN CWA OVERNIGHT... AND WILL RETAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER IN THE EAST WITH A SLOW EXIT TO THE RAIN OUT OF THE SE AND FAR
ERN CWA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY FALL FROM THEIR CURRENT
READINGS TODAY... DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND NOT UNTIL
AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTH... SO TODAY`S "HIGHS" IN THE 60S TO NEAR
70 WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH READINGS IN THE MID 50S
NORTH TO LOWER 60S SOUTH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT FROM
THE UPPER 40S NW (WHERE SKIES WILL TREND TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
LIGHTER WINDS) TO THE MID 50S EAST (LONGER-LIVED CLOUD DECK AND MORE
BRISK WINDS OVERNIGHT). -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SATURDAY...
THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SIT OVER NE SC EARLY SUN THEN
WOBBLE NEAR OR JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE FILLING THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SE CWA
EARLY SUN MORNING... BUT THE DRYING ALOFT AND INFLUENCE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH SHOULD PUT AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES AREAWIDE BY MID
MORNING. MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND THE SURFACE-850 MB LOW SHOULD
KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST OF RALEIGH FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY... WITH MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE NAM CLEARS OUT
CENTRAL NC MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN THE GFS... AND THIS FASTER AND
MORE OPTIMISTIC NAM SOLUTION IS PREFERRED CONSIDERING THE WEAKENING
NATURE OF THE LOW AND SUBSIDENCE ON ITS NW SIDE. THE STABLE AIR AND
COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SUNDAY DESPITE THE
INCREASING SUNSHINE IN THE NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT HIGHS OF 67-71.
LOWS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S... WARMER IN THE
EAST WITH WEAKER COOL AIR ADVECTION. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM STEMMING FROM A PARENT LOW OVER QUEBEC.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS HAVE BECOME PROGRESSIVELY DRIER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH THE GFS REALLY DRY AND THE ECMWF STILL HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
HAVE CUT BACK POPS AND QPF FOR TUESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE NOW LEANING
TOWARDS A NEARLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVEN IF SHOWERS DO OCCUR WITH
THE FRONT...ACCUMULATIONS WOULD ONLY BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH.
FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING KICKING OFF AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S AND AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN OVER THE EAST
COAST...MODELS DIFFER IN THE HANDLING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY THAT IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT IN THE GFS BUT
AFFECTS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN PERIPHERY IN THE ECWMF SOLUTION ON
FRIDAY EVENING. TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN NEXT
WEEKENDS WEATHER BUT IS WORTH WATCHING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL TREND TO MVFR/IFR THIS
MORNING... WHICH WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH TOWARD THE ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z THIS
MORNING... CAUSING A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM LIGHT WSW TO NORTHEAST AT 8-
12 KTS. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL HOLD WITH THESE. THEN... LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (17Z-05Z) MAINLY ACROSS SRN NC AND
AFFECTING FAY FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A MORE BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR CIGS/VSBYS... AND IF THE
LATEST HRRR TREND ENDS UP CORRECT... THE POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS
MAY LAST JUST A FEW HOURS. WILL MONITOR THIS TREND FOR LATER TAFS.
FOR NOW WILL INDICATE CIGS FALLING TO MVFR AND BRIEFLY IFR BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z... LASTING UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
VFR IS EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE... WITH CIGS IMPROVING FIRST AT
INT/GSO NEAR 22Z... AT RDU/RWI AT 02Z-03Z... AND REMAINING SUB-VFR
AT FAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD (06Z TONIGHT). RAIN
WITH MVFR VSBYS WILL LAST LONGEST AT FAY... WHILE OTHER TAF SITES
WILL SEE MORE PATCHY RAIN AND SHORTER PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SUN MORNING... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE TO VFR NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY
NE OFF THE NC COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...
SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT MAY HOLD UP FROM THE NORTH
NEAR 6-10 KTS AT FAY THROUGH SUN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
TUE... ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS FRONT AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD... LASTING THROUGH WED BEHIND THE
FRONT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM... HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
304 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH... AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...
THE LATEST RADAR INDICATED THAT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NW PART OF THE TRIAD REGION. THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL WILKES AND NORTHWEST
ALEXANDER COUNTIES OF THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME IN CLOUD LIGHTNING
WAS OCCURRING. THE CG LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE LOCATED WELL
NORTHEAST IN EASTERN VIRGINIA. THE LATEST WEATHER PARAMETERS
STILL SUGGEST THAT THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE TRIAD REGION... BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY... ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL ANALYZED FROM WV INTO KY MOVING INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA NEARING LATE EVENING... THE INITIAL
LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOSE ITS PUNCH THROUGH 100 OR
200 AM.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE TRIAD LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT... AND SLOWLY INCREASE THE CHANCE POP
INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT.
IT APPEARS THE CHANCE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SC AS THE MAIN FRONT SETTLES INTO THAT
REGION. INCREASING LIFT AND OVERRUNNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL AID IN RAIN DEVELOPMENT OVER NC ON SATURDAY.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TONIGHT... THEN TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY
WITH THE INCREASING RAIN AND NE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SAT AM
FOLLOWED BY QUICKLY RISING MSLP OVER CENTRAL NC FROM THE W
AND N. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LOW LAGGING...LOOK FOR PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN TO SET UP AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING
AND THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING WHERE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS RAIN WILL BE...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER-RES
WRF RUNS SUGGESTING THAT AREAS NORTH OF I-85 WILL DRY OUT FROM NOON-
TIME ON AND RAIN GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM
IS SLOWER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE TRIAD WITH A MORE GENERAL
COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC MOST OF THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL
MAKE FEW CHANGES AND CONTINUE DEPICTING THE HIGHEST POPS
(CATEGORICAL) ACROSS OUR S/SE ZONES AND 50-60 POPS (LIKELY) ACROSS
OUR TRIAD ZONES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH GRAY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAIN...LOOK FOR LITTLE IF ANY TEMP CHANGE FROM TONIGHTS LOW...TEMPS
HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S DURING THE DAYTIME. WITH MSLP RISING...
WE`LL SEE A NE BREEZE DURING THE DAY STEADY AT 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AT TIMES.
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY MOVING
EAST...RAIN WILL END FROM NW TO SE..AND SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
AND ASSOC DRYING WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS
THE TRIAD...BUT REMAINING CLOUDY MOST OF THE NIGHT FROM THE TRIANGLE
EASTWARD GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WITH CAA THE PRIMARY
INFLUENCE...LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM STEMMING FROM A PARENT LOW OVER QUEBEC.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS HAVE BECOME PROGRESSIVELY DRIER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH THE GFS REALLY DRY AND THE ECMWF STILL HINTING AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
HAVE CUT BACK POPS AND QPF FOR TUESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE NOW LEANING
TOWARDS A NEARLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVEN IF SHOWERS DO OCCUR WITH
THE FRONT...ACCUMULATIONS WOULD ONLY BE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH.
FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA ON TUESDAY EVENING KICKING OFF AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S AND AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LATE IN THE
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN OVER THE EAST
COAST...MODELS DIFFER IN THE HANDLING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE OHIO VALLEY THAT IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT IN THE GFS BUT
AFFECTS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN PERIPHERY IN THE ECWMF SOLUTION ON
FRIDAY EVENING. TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN NEXT
WEEKENDS WEATHER BUT IS WORTH WATCHING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL TREND TO MVFR/IFR THIS
MORNING... WHICH WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH TOWARD THE ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z THIS
MORNING... CAUSING A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM LIGHT WSW TO NORTHEAST AT 8-
12 KTS. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL HOLD WITH THESE. THEN... LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (17Z-05Z) MAINLY ACROSS SRN NC AND
AFFECTING FAY FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A MORE BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR CIGS/VSBYS... AND IF THE
LATEST HRRR TREND ENDS UP CORRECT... THE POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS
MAY LAST JUST A FEW HOURS. WILL MONITOR THIS TREND FOR LATER TAFS.
FOR NOW WILL INDICATE CIGS FALLING TO MVFR AND BRIEFLY IFR BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z... LASTING UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
VFR IS EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE... WITH CIGS IMPROVING FIRST AT
INT/GSO NEAR 22Z... AT RDU/RWI AT 02Z-03Z... AND REMAINING SUB-VFR
AT FAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD (06Z TONIGHT). RAIN
WITH MVFR VSBYS WILL LAST LONGEST AT FAY... WHILE OTHER TAF SITES
WILL SEE MORE PATCHY RAIN AND SHORTER PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SUN MORNING... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE TO VFR NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY
NE OFF THE NC COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...
SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT MAY HOLD UP FROM THE NORTH
NEAR 6-10 KTS AT FAY THROUGH SUN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
TUE... ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS FRONT AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD... LASTING THROUGH WED BEHIND THE
FRONT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM... RAH
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1259 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH... AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. COOL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY... THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM FRIDAY...
THE LATEST RADAR INDICATED THAT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NW PART OF THE TRIAD REGION. THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL WILKES AND NORTHWEST
ALEXANDER COUNTIES OF THE FOOTHILLS WHERE SOME IN CLOUD LIGHTNING
WAS OCCURRING. THE CG LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE LOCATED WELL
NORTHEAST IN EASTERN VIRGINIA. THE LATEST WEATHER PARAMETERS
STILL SUGGEST THAT THE BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE TRIAD REGION... BUT WITH VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY... ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL ANALYZED FROM WV INTO KY MOVING INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA NEARING LATE EVENING... THE INITIAL
LINE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOSE ITS PUNCH THROUGH 100 OR
200 AM.
WE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE TRIAD LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT... AND SLOWLY INCREASE THE CHANCE POP
INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT.
IT APPEARS THE CHANCE OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL INCREASE
LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SC AS THE MAIN FRONT SETTLES INTO THAT
REGION. INCREASING LIFT AND OVERRUNNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL AID IN RAIN DEVELOPMENT OVER NC ON SATURDAY.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TONIGHT... THEN TEMPERATURES FALL SATURDAY
WITH THE INCREASING RAIN AND NE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST SAT AM
FOLLOWED BY QUICKLY RISING MSLP OVER CENTRAL NC FROM THE W
AND N. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LOW LAGGING...LOOK FOR PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN TO SET UP AND OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING
AND THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING WHERE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS RAIN WILL BE...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER-RES
WRF RUNS SUGGESTING THAT AREAS NORTH OF I-85 WILL DRY OUT FROM NOON-
TIME ON AND RAIN GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM
IS SLOWER MOVING THE RAIN OUT OF THE TRIAD WITH A MORE GENERAL
COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC MOST OF THE DAY. FOR NOW WILL
MAKE FEW CHANGES AND CONTINUE DEPICTING THE HIGHEST POPS
(CATEGORICAL) ACROSS OUR S/SE ZONES AND 50-60 POPS (LIKELY) ACROSS
OUR TRIAD ZONES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH GRAY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAIN...LOOK FOR LITTLE IF ANY TEMP CHANGE FROM TONIGHTS LOW...TEMPS
HOLDING IN THE LOW-MID 60S DURING THE DAYTIME. WITH MSLP RISING...
WE`LL SEE A NE BREEZE DURING THE DAY STEADY AT 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AT TIMES.
SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY MOVING
EAST...RAIN WILL END FROM NW TO SE..AND SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
AND ASSOC DRYING WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASING ACROSS
THE TRIAD...BUT REMAINING CLOUDY MOST OF THE NIGHT FROM THE TRIANGLE
EASTWARD GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. WITH CAA THE PRIMARY
INFLUENCE...LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S
SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY
STALL IN VICINITY OF THE SE COAST SUN/MON...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...IN
ADDITION TO WHETHER OR NOT CLOUD COVER AND PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS ON
BOTH DAYS...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
TUESDAY: A SHORTWAVE MOVING ASHORE THE PAC NW AND CANADIAN PACIFIC
WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG SE THROUGH THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE LATEST 12Z
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. WILL
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES TO 30% WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...DEPENDING
ON PRECIP /EVAP COOLING/ AND FROPA.
WED-FRI: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL TREND TO MVFR/IFR THIS
MORNING... WHICH WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH TOWARD THE ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z THIS
MORNING... CAUSING A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM LIGHT WSW TO NORTHEAST AT 8-
12 KTS. PATCHY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL HOLD WITH THESE. THEN... LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING (17Z-05Z) MAINLY ACROSS SRN NC AND
AFFECTING FAY FOR A LONGER PERIOD THAN INT/GSO/RDU/RWI. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD A MORE BRIEF PERIOD OF POOR CIGS/VSBYS... AND IF THE
LATEST HRRR TREND ENDS UP CORRECT... THE POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS
MAY LAST JUST A FEW HOURS. WILL MONITOR THIS TREND FOR LATER TAFS.
FOR NOW WILL INDICATE CIGS FALLING TO MVFR AND BRIEFLY IFR BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z... LASTING UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
VFR IS EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE... WITH CIGS IMPROVING FIRST AT
INT/GSO NEAR 22Z... AT RDU/RWI AT 02Z-03Z... AND REMAINING SUB-VFR
AT FAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD (06Z TONIGHT). RAIN
WITH MVFR VSBYS WILL LAST LONGEST AT FAY... WHILE OTHER TAF SITES
WILL SEE MORE PATCHY RAIN AND SHORTER PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z EARLY SUN MORNING... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE TO VFR NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS SLOWLY
NE OFF THE NC COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...
SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH BUT MAY HOLD UP FROM THE NORTH
NEAR 6-10 KTS AT FAY THROUGH SUN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
MON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE MON
NIGHT/EARLY TUE... AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
TUE... ALTHOUGH PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL WITH THIS FRONT AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD... LASTING THROUGH WED BEHIND THE
FRONT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM... RAH
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
255 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS KY
THIS MORNING...WHILE THE UPPER LOW IS OVER MIDDLE TN. BOTH WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE AREA...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE TIMING OF THIS WILL BE SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 00Z. SOME CLEARING SHOULD BE
COMING INTO WESTERN AREAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO REMAIN
FAIRLY MOIST IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SUGGESTING THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY ALONG WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB...HIGHS WILL PROBABLY
NOT RISE MUCH...REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ONLY REAL NOTABLE WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE LONG TERM
WILL THE FRONT OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS OF THIS
WRITING, THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
BUT DISAGREE WITH RESPECT TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ECMWF IS MORE
GENEROUS WITH THE MOISTURE, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE DRY OVER
OUR AREA. SO AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE WITH DECENT POPS OVER THE
AREA AND RAISE/LOWER THEM AS THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT.
REGARDLESS OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY AND BRING IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 53 76 53 / 80 0 0 0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 51 73 50 / 80 10 0 0
OAK RIDGE, TN 70 49 74 51 / 60 10 0 0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 48 71 47 / 60 10 0 0
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS/ABM
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS
VFR. WE/LL NEED TO WATCH OUT WEST AT KDRT...WHERE INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
WE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE LOW CLOUDS WILL BECOME THICK
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS JUST YET. WINDS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN THE 5-10
KT RANGE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NO SHORT TERM IMPACTS EXPECTED AS DRIER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING TO
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARDS THE BAJA OF MEXICO. A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
WAS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THAT WILL USER IN A DRIER
AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY/FRONT IS NOTED NORTH OF THE
REGION ALONG A DALLAS TO MIDLAND LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK DUE TO TO HIGHER CLOUDS
FROM THE PREVIOUS COMPLEX. HAVE PLACED A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH 7PM FOR THIS ACTIVITY. SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SHOWERS TO DRIZZLE ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
BUT NO TRUE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE LAST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AND BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS FALLING
TO 1.3-1.5". THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
READINGS WILL BE NEAR 10F OVER THE TYPICAL VALUES THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MAX HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AREA WIDE. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SOURCES OF LIFT OR INSTABILITY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY
DESPITE BEING BRUSHED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST
SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING
SOME RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK...MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A DEEPER
ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL AID A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARDS AND THROUGH
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN NEAR LOCK STEP
WITH EACH OTHER INDICATING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS EARLIER OR LATER COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF TSTORM STRENGTH. AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER...AVAILABLE THERMODYNAMICS WOULD SUPPORT SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT OVERALL SET UP
WOULD NOT FAVOR A FLOODING OR SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME. HAVE PLACED
20-30% TSTORM CHANCES AND WILL MONITOR TIMING/PARAMETER TRENDS.
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S-30S WHICH
WOULD DROP THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL AS MORNING
LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS COULD DROP INTO THE LOW 50S
FOR NORTH HALF AND INTO THE HILL COUNTRY THOSE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S. PWATS WILL DROP TO THE LOWEST THEY HAVE BEEN THIS FALL
SEASON WITH READINGS BELOW 0.3" IN THE NORTH. THIS LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NIL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 68 94 72 95 68 / - - 0 - 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 63 94 67 94 66 / - - 0 - 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 66 95 69 96 68 / - - 0 - 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 65 94 70 95 65 / - - 0 - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 91 69 95 70 / - - 0 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 64 93 70 95 64 / - - 0 - 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 94 68 95 68 / - - 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 65 93 68 94 67 / - - 0 - 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 64 93 70 93 68 / - - 0 - 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 93 70 94 70 / - - 0 0 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 68 95 70 95 70 / - - 0 0 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1108 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS IS AIDING IN KEEPING A THICK DECK OF
STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY. THESE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GA/SC. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GRIDS
MAINLY JUST MAINTENANCE ON THE TEMPS...DEWS...WINDS..AND SKY WITH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
THE RAIN HAS DEPARTED THE AREA AND WITH THE FOG QUITE LIMITED HAVE
UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE WX GRIDS. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF ZFP UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THIS IS TAKING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA ALONG WITH ITS PASSAGE. POST FRONTAL
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS SEEPING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST
KENTUCKY ON LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. READINGS CURRENTLY
VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS IN THE
OBS AND ON WEB CAMS OF SOME FOG STARTING TO FORM IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT NOT MUCH...SO FAR.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EVENING. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. ATTENTION IS THEN DRAWN TO
A DEVELOPING STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
THAT EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR FORECAST DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH BY MID MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING BY
AFTERNOON. THE CHANGE OF AIR MASSES TODAY WILL MEAN COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES WILL LIKELY PROVIDE FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ALONG WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING BY DAWN. LOOK FOR A SMALL TO MODERATE
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COLDEST VALLEYS
MAY SEE READINGS DOWN AROUND 40 DEGREES OR EVEN INTO THE UPPER 30S
WITH PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...SHOULD THE SKIES
STAY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T
AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
THROUGH SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME RELATIVE ELEVATION BASED
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ADDRESSING THE RIDGE AND
VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO
CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WITH NEAR ZERO VALUES
THEREAFTER...ALSO IN LINE WITH MOS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN ELONGATE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH A WELL
DEVELOPED TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS CANADIAN BORDER. THE
RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...AS AN ILL DEFINED
AND FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS. THE FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE SURFACE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS
TIME. THE FORECAST ISSUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE JUST HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT TO INTERACT WITH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO DETERMINE HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE. AT THIS TIME...THE
GFS MODEL KEEPS EASTERN KENTUCKY ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY DURING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEING THE ONLY
INDICATION THAT THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...KEEPS THINGS DRY AT FIRST...BUT THEN PRODUCES A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE
FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. BASED ON THIS
UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED TO USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODEL DATA TO CREATE THE POP FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. THIS BLEND PRODUCED A MAX POP OF 30 PERCENT AND HAS EASTERN
KENTUCKY RAIN FREE BY 15Z ON TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE
DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE ON TRACK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE BOARD BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. A CANADIAN AIR MASS IS
FORECAST TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTER A NEAR
NORMAL DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED...A
STEADY COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. DAILY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. LOWS MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MIN READINGS AROUND 50 ON TAP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
MVFR CIGS AT A FEW SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FOG COULD BE
AN ISSUE AT THE SITES LATER TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DRYING
TAKES PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...DO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
IN THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
THE RAIN HAS DEPARTED THE AREA AND WITH THE FOG QUITE LIMITED HAVE
UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE WX GRIDS. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF ZFP UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THIS IS TAKING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA ALONG WITH ITS PASSAGE. POST FRONTAL
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS SEEPING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST
KENTUCKY ON LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. READINGS CURRENTLY
VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS IN THE
OBS AND ON WEB CAMS OF SOME FOG STARTING TO FORM IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT NOT MUCH...SO FAR.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EVENING. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. ATTENTION IS THEN DRAWN TO
A DEVELOPING STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
THAT EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR FORECAST DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH BY MID MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING BY
AFTERNOON. THE CHANGE OF AIR MASSES TODAY WILL MEAN COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES WILL LIKELY PROVIDE FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ALONG WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING BY DAWN. LOOK FOR A SMALL TO MODERATE
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COLDEST VALLEYS
MAY SEE READINGS DOWN AROUND 40 DEGREES OR EVEN INTO THE UPPER 30S
WITH PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...SHOULD THE SKIES
STAY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T
AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
THROUGH SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME RELATIVE ELEVATION BASED
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ADDRESSING THE RIDGE AND
VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO
CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WITH NEAR ZERO VALUES
THEREAFTER...ALSO IN LINE WITH MOS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN ELONGATE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH A WELL
DEVELOPED TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS CANADIAN BORDER. THE
RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...AS AN ILL DEFINED
AND FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS. THE FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE SURFACE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS
TIME. THE FORECAST ISSUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE JUST HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT TO INTERACT WITH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO DETERMINE HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE. AT THIS TIME...THE
GFS MODEL KEEPS EASTERN KENTUCKY ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY DURING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEING THE ONLY
INDICATION THAT THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...KEEPS THINGS DRY AT FIRST...BUT THEN PRODUCES A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE
FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. BASED ON THIS
UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED TO USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODEL DATA TO CREATE THE POP FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. THIS BLEND PRODUCED A MAX POP OF 30 PERCENT AND HAS EASTERN
KENTUCKY RAIN FREE BY 15Z ON TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE
DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE ON TRACK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE BOARD BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. A CANADIAN AIR MASS IS
FORECAST TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTER A NEAR
NORMAL DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED...A
STEADY COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. DAILY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. LOWS MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MIN READINGS AROUND 50 ON TAP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
MVFR CIGS AT A FEW SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FOG COULD BE
AN ISSUE AT THE SITES LATER TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DRYING
TAKES PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...DO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
IN THE VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
903 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.UPDATE...
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THIS MORNING OVER KLVM AND ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS WITH KLVM REPORTING A GUST IN THE MID 50S. GAP FLOW WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH
A FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND LARGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN KLVM IN THE 60S AND THE PARK IN THE LOWER 30S. BASED ON
THE RAP SOUNDINGS...THE RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
IN GOOD SHAPE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES.
GRIDDED MODEL DEWPOINTS LOOKED TOO HIGH GIVEN THE EXPECTED MIXING.
NOTED THAT THE RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS DOWN TO AT
LEAST 30 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. SO...WENT FOR A COMPROMISE AND
LOWERED DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES.
CHECKED MOUNTAIN WAVE POTENTIAL FOR TODAY...AND GFS KEPT STRONG
WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL SO THIS SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN.
HIGH CIRRUS...AROUND 300 MB BASED ON 12Z KTFX SOUNDING...WAS SEEN
OVER THE AREA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE GFS SHOWED THESE CLOUDS
DECREASING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WAS
REFLECTED IN THE GOING FORECAST.
WILL WAIT FOR ALL THE NEW MODEL DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO
LATER PERIODS...BUT ONE CONCERN WAS POSSIBLE INCREASE IN KLVM
WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WILL EVALUATE
ENTIRE WIND SITUATION FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUN THIS AFTERNOON.
ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS SUNDAY
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BOTH SCENARIOS WILL RESULT
IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL AND SO CAUTION IS VERY
MUCH ADVISED WITH ANY OPEN FLAMES...BUT WE HAVEN/T ISSUED ANY RED
FLAG WARNINGS BECAUSE FUEL-BASED FIRE DANGERS ARE ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MODERATE CATEGORY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S F AND IT/S
VERY PLAUSIBLE THAT PLACES LIKE MILES CITY /WHERE MIXING WILL BE A
BIT DEEPER WITH ITS RIVER-VALLEY LOCATION/ WILL REACH 90 F. AN AIR
MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 700-MB TEMPERATURES OF +10 TO +12 C LIKE WE
EXPECT BY AFTERNOON IS EXCEEDINGLY RARE FOR EARLY TO MID OCTOBER.
CURRENT DAILY RECORDS FOR OCTOBER 10TH ARE 85 F AT BILLINGS...88 F
AT BOTH SHERIDAN AND LIVINGSTON...AND 90 F AT MILES CITY. EXPECT
WINDS TO BE A BIT GUSTY TODAY...AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A CORE
OF 50-70 KT 700-MB WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED WIND GUSTS AT LIVINGSTON MAY PEAK NEAR 55 MPH /WHICH IS
JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA/ AND THAT HIGH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL STAY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE RED LODGE...
BUT BOTH THOSE ITEMS WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING ON OUR PART.
ON SUNDAY...STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
WE HAVE POSTED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR SOUTHERN WHEATLAND COUNTY AND
THE JUDITH GAP AREA AS THE EXPECTED 700-MB WINDS OF 50-55 KT ARE
WELL-CORRELATED WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AROUND HARLOWTON. ELSE-
WHERE...WE CHOSE TO FORGO ANY WIND HEADLINES AT THIS POINT AND ARE
INSTEAD CALLING FOR WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND MODERATE COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND AN EARLY-DAY FRONTAL AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE
WILL EFFICIENTLY DRIVE WINDS ALOFT TO THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE 00
UTC GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF GENERALLY KEEP PEAK WINDS AT 850 MB NEAR
45 KT...JUST SHY OF THE 50 KT THRESHOLD WE TYPICALLY LOOK FOR WITH
HIGH WIND EVENTS ON THE PLAINS. THE 00 UTC GFS DOES BRING WINDS OF
THAT MAGNITUDE INTO THE MILES CITY AND BAKER AREAS BY VERY LATE IN
THE DAY...WHICH IS A BIT CONCERNING...BUT THAT OCCURS IN THE MODEL
SIMULATION AFTER THE PEAK IN DIURNAL MIXING AND IT/S NOT LINKED UP
WITH THE ISALLOBARIC /PRESSURE-RISE-DRIVEN/ WIND RESPONSE. OTHER-
WISE...WE DO HAVE A LOW-END SHOWER CHANCE IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY
AS WELL...WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F. SCHULTZ
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
LOW IMPACTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW MONDAY TURNS
NORTHWEST AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND OREGON. THIS NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE DRY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE MINIMAL. THE GFS
HAS COME IN A LITTLE WARMER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONGER
RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS STRONGER RIDGING RESULTS
IN A MUCH WEAKER BACK COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER
WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIVING INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THUS STRONGER WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE BIT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO AS HIGH AS MEX GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF IN MIND. THE MAIN STORY
ON THE EXTENDED IS MILD AND DRY. TWH
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION
TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE FOOTHILLS AREAS AND
AROUND KLVM...WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS WILL EXTEND FROM ABOUT COLUMBUS EASTWARD TODAY...BEGINNING
IN THE WEST THIS MORNING AND SPREADING INTO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS EAST OF KBIL WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS
EVENING...WHILE WINDS FROM KBIL WEST ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 062/068 040/070 048/075 045/072 044/069 045/070
0/U 02/W 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B
LVM 087 062/065 038/072 043/073 042/073 040/071 040/072
0/N 22/W 00/N 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/B
HDN 089 057/070 039/071 044/076 043/072 043/070 043/073
0/U 02/W 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B
MLS 090 057/069 040/069 046/072 044/070 042/067 042/069
0/U 02/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/B
4BQ 089 057/070 039/067 045/073 043/071 042/070 042/072
0/U 02/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B
BHK 086 056/069 041/065 044/070 042/067 039/065 039/067
0/U 02/W 10/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 091 056/071 038/070 042/075 041/072 040/071 039/072
0/U 02/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR ZONES 28-63.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
340 PM MST SAT OCT 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE SWRN CONUS AND
ADJACENT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WAS CHARACTERIZED WITH LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR...AND A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EXTENDING SEWD INTO WEST
TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE DRY...THERE IS
ENOUGH MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVENCTING NWD ACROSS SONORA
MEXICO TO MERIT THE CONTINUATION OF A SILGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THIS EVENING MAINLY FROM TUCSON SWD/SEWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.
SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSIDERABLY MORE AGGRESSIVE VERSUS
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF REGARDING PRECIP POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE
NOTED THAT THE UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM AND WRF-GFS DEPICTED PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY AMONGST THESE
SOLUTIONS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW REGARDING THE
PROPSECT FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. THE 10/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF WERE
ACTUALLY MORE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING LIGHT QPF/S GENERALLY SE OF
TUCSON SUN. BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS...OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM TUCSON SWD/SEWD
TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
OTHERWISE...THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED
OFFICIAL FORECAST STARTING MON AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. APPEARS THAT PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MON-WED AS A
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW.
THEREAFTER...THERE WERE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/
ECMWF SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
LOW INTO THE SWRN CONUS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
IN ESSENCE...THE ECMWF MAINTAINED A CLOSED UPPER LOW STRUCTURE AND
WAS SUBSEQUENTLY MUCH SLOWER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM. FOR INSTANCE...A 577 DM UPPER LOW WAS PROGGED VIA THE ECMWF
TO BE CENTERED NEAR YUMA MIDDAY FRI. HOWEVER...THE GFS DEPICTED AN
OPEN-WAVE STRUCTURE SYSTEM TO BE OVER ERN ARIZONA FRI AFTERNOON. THE
CMC SEEMED TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...DEPICTING
A NEGATIVE-TILTED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO
BE OVER SRN NEVADA/SWRN ARIZONA FRI AFTERNOON.
AT ANY RATE...MADE ONLY VERY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE INHERITED
GRIDDED DATA POPS THUR-FRI FOLLOWED BY A SIMILAR PATTERN SAT.
THUS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-WIDE THUR...
THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI-SAT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS ERN SECTIONS.
HIGH TEMPS SUN-THUR WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOLLOWED
BY DAYTIME TEMPS TRENDING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 12/00Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY SOUTH OF KTUS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND
8-12K FT AGL AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL
PREVAIL THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND THRU THE PERIOD WILL
MAINLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. HOWEVER...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTH OF TUCSON THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
935 AM MST SAT OCT 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. THE BULK OF THESE
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS EXTENDED FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...AND CLOUD TOPS WERE MAINLY WARMING DURING THE PAST 1-2
HOURS. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z WERE IN THE LOWER-MID
50S...AND THESE TEMPS WERE GENERALLY 2-5 DEGS F HIGHER VERSUS 24
HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE 2-4 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS
THIS TIME FRI.
10/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.83 INCH WAS
NEARLY 0.20 INCH LOWER VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. THE PROFILE WAS MARKEDLY
DRIER IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER VERSUS FRI MORNING. 10/12Z UPPER AIR
PLOTS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SW OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR
NEAR 25N/116W...AND A 592 DM HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA.
MODERATE ELY/SELY FLOW PREVAILED ALOFT ACROSS SE ARIZONA.
10/12Z NAM/GFS AND SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH
DEPICTING LIGHT QPF/S TO OCCUR MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
HUACHUCA/PATAGONIA/SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH DEPICTING
LIGHT QPF/S TO EXTEND FURTHER NWWD INTO THE TUCSON METRO AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE NOTED THAT THE 12Z UNIV OF AZ
WRF-NAM DEPICTED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING.
AT ANY RATE...WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE INHERITED POPS BASED ON
THESE SOLUTIONS. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS FORECAST AREA
INTO THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST POPS...GENERALLY 20-30 PERCENT...WILL
BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SW COCHISE/ERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EXISTS LATE TONIGHT GENERALLY NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 4-8 DEGS F WARMER
VERSUS FRI.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /230 AM MST/...RIDGING ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN US...MEANWHILE THE CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES ITS
SLOW TREK WESTWARD OVER BAJA. SOUTHEAST ARIZONA IS CAUGHT IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES THIS MORNING WITH THE RESULT BEING GUSTY EAST WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE ON UP. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER TO THE WEST. WINDS
WILL BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AFTER THE MORNING HOURS.
SOUNDING DATA ALONG WITH SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INDICATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL MOISTURE VALUES IN
PLACE. WITH MID LEVEL FLOW FAVORING AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THE EXPECTATION IS THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IMPINGING FROM THE NORTH OVERALL INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE. IN OTHER WORDS...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE ON
THE WEAKER SIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH A FIRM GRIP ON THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS. LOWER 90S WILL GIVE WAY TO MID TO
UPPER 90S BY MID WEEK. OUR CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO LOOP BACK
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES BY LATE WEEK USHERING IN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING AND
LOCATION OF BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT
THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH A CUT-OFF LOW INVOLVED...BUT THE
TREND WILL BE COOLER AND WETTER NONETHELESS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/18Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY SOUTH OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHERWISE...A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL
AND SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL THRU
SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WIND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
GENERALLY ELY AT 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. SURFACE WIND
WILL THEN BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10 KTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
SOUTH OF TUCSON INTO THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT GENERALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM MEXICO ACROSS EH SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PASSING HIGH CLOUD COVER. AT THE
SURFACE...SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...RIDGE TRANSITIONS TO WESTERLY FLOW AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS REMAINING IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA...WITH INCREASING WAA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
PRIMARY CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
(SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION) AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE DAILY RECORD HIGHS BROKEN
ACROSS OUR CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORS HIGHS 90-95F...WHICH COULD STILL PLACE A FEW LOCATIONS
WITHIN RANGE OF MONTHLY RECORDS. WARMER END OF GUIDANCE NOW
SUPPORTS HIGHS 95 (GOODLAND) TO 100F (MCCOOK) WHICH WOULD BE ABOVE
MONTHLY RECORDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA. WHILE MIXING SHOULD
BE VERY DEEP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...TEMPS ALOFT SEEM TO SUPPORT
THE LOWER END OF THIS SPECTRUM AND MODEL CONSENSUS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER EAST MONDAY, FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS
SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY SUNDAY NIGHT EVEN THROUGH DYNAMICS FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH ARE NEARBY. THERE IS SIMPLY A LACK OF MOISTURE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS LACK OF MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY POPS FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE NIL.
MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY. MIN
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA. MIN
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID 40S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY.
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE. A TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA
WEST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S DURING THIS
TIME. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. WITH SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
NEAR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK PREVAILING WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12KT.
THERE WILL BE A SHIFT IN WINDS FROM SW TO THE WEST BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS THIS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. IF TD TRENDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE ANY INDICATION WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EVEN WARMER. THE BIGGEST QUESTION REGARDING POTENTIAL
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE WINDS...WITH PEAK WINDS ALOFT STILL NORTH
OF OUR CWA. GFS HAS TRENDED HIGHER AND MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW OF RED
FLAG CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34. NAM AND OTHER
GUIDANCE ON THE OTHER HAND SUPPORTS WHAT WOULD BE INFREQUENT WIND
GUSTS LESS THAN 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT PEAK WINDS IN THE MIXED
LAYER. THIS IS A VERY NARROW WINDOW IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA...AND 3HR OCCURRENCE IS IN DOUBT. I DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUANCE OF WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE DUE TO THE MARGINAL
WIND CONDITIONS.
MONDAY...DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR
STRONG ENOUGH TO MEET CRITERIA EXCEPT IN THE MORNING OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WHEN RH VALUES WILL HIGHER. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES GO LOWER BUT SPEEDS THEN WILL EVEN BE
LOWER. LATER SHIFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR FIRE WEATHER FOR
MONDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2015
RECORDS FOR SATURDAY
GOODLAND.....90 SET IN 1920
TRIBUNE......91 SET IN 1920
BURLINGTON...90 SET IN 1962
YUMA.........87 SET IN 1962
RECORDS FOR SUNDAY
GOODLAND.....93 SET IN 1996 (MONTHLY RECORD 96 IN 1926)
COLBY........90 SET IN 1955 (MONTHLY RECORD 97 IN 2000)
TRIBUNE......90 SET IN 1975 (MONTHLY RECORD 95 IN 2007)
HILL CITY....94 SET IN 1975
BURLINGTON...90 SET IN 1996 (MONTHLY RECORD 93 IN 2007)
YUMA.........86 SET IN 1989
MCCOOK.......90 SET IN 1962 (MONTHLY RECORD 98 IN 1928)
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
GOODLAND.....91
COLBY........94
TRIBUNE......92
HILL CITY....96
BURLINGTON...90
YUMA.........89
MCCOOK.......95
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
FIRE WEATHER...DR/FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
135 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE TN
VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS IS AIDING IN KEEPING A THICK DECK OF
STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY. THESE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GA/SC. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GRIDS
MAINLY JUST MAINTENANCE ON THE TEMPS...DEWS...WINDS..AND SKY WITH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
THE RAIN HAS DEPARTED THE AREA AND WITH THE FOG QUITE LIMITED HAVE
UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE WX GRIDS. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF ZFP UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA. THIS IS TAKING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OUT OF THE AREA ALONG WITH ITS PASSAGE. POST FRONTAL
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS SEEPING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST
KENTUCKY ON LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. READINGS CURRENTLY
VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE FAR
SOUTH. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTH. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS IN THE
OBS AND ON WEB CAMS OF SOME FOG STARTING TO FORM IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT NOT MUCH...SO FAR.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EVENING. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. ATTENTION IS THEN DRAWN TO
A DEVELOPING STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
THAT EVENING. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR FORECAST DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE LIGHT SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH BY MID MORNING WITH SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING BY
AFTERNOON. THE CHANGE OF AIR MASSES TODAY WILL MEAN COOL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES WILL LIKELY PROVIDE FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ALONG WITH
PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING BY DAWN. LOOK FOR A SMALL TO MODERATE
RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TO SET UP SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE COLDEST VALLEYS
MAY SEE READINGS DOWN AROUND 40 DEGREES OR EVEN INTO THE UPPER 30S
WITH PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...SHOULD THE SKIES
STAY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T
AND TD GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
THROUGH SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME RELATIVE ELEVATION BASED
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ADDRESSING THE RIDGE AND
VALLEY LOW TEMPERATURE SPLIT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO
CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE THIS MORNING WITH NEAR ZERO VALUES
THEREAFTER...ALSO IN LINE WITH MOS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN ELONGATE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH A WELL
DEVELOPED TROUGH ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS CANADIAN BORDER. THE
RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP. CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...AS AN ILL DEFINED
AND FAIRLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS. THE FRONT WILL REPRESENT THE SURFACE EXTENSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS
TIME. THE FORECAST ISSUE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE JUST HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONT TO INTERACT WITH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO DETERMINE HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE. AT THIS TIME...THE
GFS MODEL KEEPS EASTERN KENTUCKY ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY DURING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEING THE ONLY
INDICATION THAT THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH. THE ECMWF...ON THE
OTHER HAND...KEEPS THINGS DRY AT FIRST...BUT THEN PRODUCES A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE
FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. BASED ON THIS
UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED TO USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODEL DATA TO CREATE THE POP FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. THIS BLEND PRODUCED A MAX POP OF 30 PERCENT AND HAS EASTERN
KENTUCKY RAIN FREE BY 15Z ON TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE
DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE ON TRACK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE BOARD BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. A CANADIAN AIR MASS IS
FORECAST TO FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTER A NEAR
NORMAL DAY ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED...A
STEADY COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. DAILY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE 60S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. LOWS MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH MIN READINGS AROUND 50 ON TAP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
CONTINUING TO HOLD ON TO SOME STRATUS ACROSS ABOUT HALF OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BEEN BROUGHT ON BY A SLOW SE
MOVING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ON TO
SOME MVFR MANY OF THE SITES THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD
LIFT AND MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. AFTER THIS MOSTLY SUNNY AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY INTO A
PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THE TRICKY ASPECT OF THE FORECAST WILL
FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. RIGHT NOW
OPTED TO AT LEAST GIVE ALL IFR WITH AIRPORT MINS MET AT BOTH LOZ
AND SME. THIS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT BY AROUND 15Z SUNDAY. WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
428 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOME
TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...THERE IS A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BTWN SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM THE OH
RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LO PRES CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA.
DESPITE STRONG WINDS UNDER THIS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NOT FAR ABOVE
THE SFC AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB...WHERE SW WINDS WERE AS HI AS
50 KTS AT 3K FT AGL...SHARP WAA IN THIS FLOW THAT IS FCST TO INCRS
H85 TEMPS ABOUT 10C THRU THE DAY BUT RELATIVELY SLOW NEAR SFC
WARMING LIMITED BY LOWERING SUN ANGLE AND INFLUX OF HI CLDS HAVE
KEPT LLVL STABILITY RELATIVELY HI AND LIMITED DEEP MIXING/SFC WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF HI CLD
SPILLING INTO THE AREA...VERY DRY AIR BTWN H85 AND ABOUT H5 AS SHOWN
ON THE UPSTREAM MPX AND GRB RAOBS HAS LIMITED THE COVERAGE OF ANY
LOWER CLD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WINDS AND TEMPS AS
RELATIVELY DRY SW FLOW WL PERSIST THRU SUN.
TNGT...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/RIBBON OF H925 SW WINDS UP TO 35-40 KTS
ARE FCST TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVNG BEFORE RELAXING OVERNGT AS SFC HI
PRES RDG TO THE SE SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. SO ANY
STRONGER WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG WHEN SFC TEMPS ARE HIER/
LLVL INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT GREATER WL DIMINISH THRU THE NGT WITH THE
SLACKENING GRADIENT/DIURNAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER WINDS WL
DIMINISH...SUSPECT THE SW FLOW WL REMAIN STEADY ENUF IN THE WARM
SECTOR TO LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING DESPITE A FORECAST GRADUAL DECREASE
IN HI LVL RH/HI CLDS. SO ALTHOUGH THE COOLER SPOTS WL SEE TEMPS DIP
INTO THE UPR 40S...READINGS WL HOLD IN THE 50S AT MANY PLACES.
EXPECT THE HIEST MIN TEMPS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
SUN...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIRMASS UNDER INCOMING UPR RDG
AXIS...EXPECT A MOSUNNY DAY WITH PERSISTENT LLVL SW FLOW. H85 TEMPS
ARE FCST TO PEAK AOA 20C...WHICH WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS RISING WELL
INTO THE 70S AT MOST PLACES AWAY FM MODERATION OFF LK MI. THE
DOWNSLOPE WARM SPOTS OVER THE W MAY SEE THE MERCURY REACH AOA 80.
THE RECORD HI MAX TEMP FOR THE MARQUETTE NWS IS 77 TMRW. SOME NEW
DAILY RECORDS MAY BE ESTABLISHED. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO BE
MUCH WEAKER TMRW...SO WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE UNDER 20 MPH OR SO
DESPITE THE HIER SFC TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
...STRONG WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...
ATTN SUNDAY EVENING WILL BE ON DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC
LOW TRACKING ACROSS MANITOBA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW
SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING MID CLOUDS BUT LOW-LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. A VERY WARM NIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AND
MAYBE STAYING ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE 50S...SO THAT PUTS A LITTLE PERSPECTIVE ON
THESE TEMPERATURES. WRAPPED UP TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR AND
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS ARE OVER 200M BY
TIME TROUGH CROSSES ON MONDAY. SFC LOW DOWN TO 980MB AT 12Z MONDAY
NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR LIFTS EAST TO JAMES BAY BY 00Z TUESDAY. COLD
CONVEYOR/WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AT H85-H7 ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION /H85 TEMPS AT 12Z MONDAY +8C OVER WESTERN U.P. FALLING
TO 0C BY 21Z/ SHOULD SUPPORT BLOSSOMING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS
FROM THE WEST TO NCNTRL CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. BIGGER STORY APPEARS
TO BE WINDS THOUGH.
INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE SFC
LOW /14MB GRADIENT LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR/ WILL COINCIDE WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
RAPIDLY INCREASING 950MB-850MB WINDS...REACHING 40-45 KTS IN THOSE
LAYERS 21Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD
PORTION OF THOSE WINDS MIXING TO SFC DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
NW WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. SHORELINE AREAS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND OVER ALGER
AND LUCE COUNTIES LIKELY WILL NEED WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. DUE TO THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE
THINK STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND OVER THE CWA.
STRONGER WINDS INLAND WOULD BE MONDAY EVENING DURING PEAK OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION. WINDS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT OVER
MUCH OF EAST CWA WITH LESS INTERRUPTION OF WINDS OFF LK SUPERIOR.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY BY TUESDAY MORNING AS
GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW LIFTING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND WITH
WEAK SFC RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SERIES OF TROUGHS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE OVER FAR WESTERN CONUS.
WEAKER SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...BUT BY THE END
OF THE WEEK THERE IS HINT OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH AND
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BUT TIMING OF
COLDEST AIR ARRIVING IS STILL IN DEBATE WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING AT
THIS POINT. GFS SHOWS H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -10C BY FRIDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS NOT AS COLD FRIDAY BUT DOES BRINGS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -8C BY
SATURDAY. WHETHER OR NOT FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE SEASON ARE SEEN
WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE COLDEST AIR AND HOW MUCH DEEP MOISTURE
IS AROUND AS THIS COLDER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE
LEAST...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. PROBABLY WILL SEE GRAUPEL IN THE
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AS WELL. DAYTIME TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL STAY IN THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS INTO THIS EVNG UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI
PRES STRETCHING FM THE OH RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LO PRES
OVER SCENTRAL CANADA. WITH SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING DURING THE EVNG...
THE WIND GUSTS WL DIMINISH AND ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LLWS BEFORE THE
PRES GRADIENT/WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVRN WEAKEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO END THE LLWS THREAT OVERNGT. SINCE THE SW FLOW WL BE
TAPPING DRY AIR...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD
AT ALL 3 TAF SITES DESPITE SOME HI CLDS INTO THIS EVNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
STRONG SW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS UNDER A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
A DEPARTING HI PRES RIDGE TO THE SE AND FALLING PRES OVER SCENTRAL
CANADA WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. BUT AS THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
WEAKENS THRU THE NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS RELATIVELY
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN/SUN NIGHT AND BRING SW
WINDS UNDER 20 KTS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP LOW PRES THROUGH
THROUGH ONTARIO ON MON...STRONG W WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH MON NIGHT WHILE VEERING TO THE NW. SINCE COLDER AIR WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS...INCREASED MIXING WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD GALES THAT WILL REACH 40-45
KTS. OPTED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR MON INTO TUE MORNING TO COVER
THIS POTENTIAL. TRAILING HI PRES WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS FOR
TUE INTO WED. AFTER ANOTHER TROF PASSES ON WED...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS INTO THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ266-267.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ162-263.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ264.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
329 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOME
TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...THERE IS A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BTWN SFC RDG AXIS STRETCHING FM THE OH
RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LO PRES CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA.
DESPITE STRONG WINDS UNDER THIS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NOT FAR ABOVE
THE SFC AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z INL RAOB...WHERE SW WINDS WERE AS HI AS
50 KTS AT 3K FT AGL...SHARP WAA IN THIS FLOW THAT IS FCST TO INCRS
H85 TEMPS ABOUT 10C THRU THE DAY BUT RELATIVELY SLOW NEAR SFC
WARMING LIMITED BY LOWERING SUN ANGLE AND INFLUX OF HI CLDS HAVE
KEPT LLVL STABILITY RELATIVELY HI AND LIMITED DEEP MIXING/SFC WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF HI CLD
SPILLING INTO THE AREA...VERY DRY AIR BTWN H85 AND ABOUT H5 AS SHOWN
ON THE UPSTREAM MPX AND GRB RAOBS HAS LIMITED THE COVERAGE OF ANY
LOWER CLD.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WINDS AND TEMPS AS
RELATIVELY DRY SW FLOW WL PERSIST THRU SUN.
TNGT...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT/RIBBON OF H925 SW WINDS UP TO 35-40 KTS
ARE FCST TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVNG BEFORE RELAXING OVERNGT AS SFC HI
PRES RDG TO THE SE SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. SO ANY
STRONGER WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG WHEN SFC TEMPS ARE HIER/
LLVL INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT GREATER WL DIMINISH THRU THE NGT WITH THE
SLACKENING GRADIENT/DIURNAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER WINDS WL
DIMINISH...SUSPECT THE SW FLOW WL REMAIN STEADY ENUF IN THE WARM
SECTOR TO LIMIT DIURNAL COOLING DESPITE A FORECAST GRADUAL DECREASE
IN HI LVL RH/HI CLDS. SO ALTHOUGH THE COOLER SPOTS WL SEE TEMPS DIP
INTO THE UPR 40S...READINGS WL HOLD IN THE 50S AT MANY PLACES.
EXPECT THE HIEST MIN TEMPS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP.
SUN...WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIRMASS UNDER INCOMING UPR RDG
AXIS...EXPECT A MOSUNNY DAY WITH PERSISTENT LLVL SW FLOW. H85 TEMPS
ARE FCST TO PEAK AOA 20C...WHICH WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS RISING WELL
INTO THE 70S AT MOST PLACES AWAY FM MODERATION OFF LK MI. THE
DOWNSLOPE WARM SPOTS OVER THE W MAY SEE THE MERCURY REACH AOA 80.
THE RECORD HI MAX TEMP FOR THE MARQUETTE NWS IS 77 TMRW. SOME NEW
DAILY RECORDS MAY BE ESTABLISHED. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FCST TO BE
MUCH WEAKER TMRW...SO WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE UNDER 20 MPH OR SO
DESPITE THE HIER SFC TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
NAM SHOWS A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 12Z SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY EAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z MON AND INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MON AND THEN INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
TUE.
LOOKS DRY AND WARM TO START OUT THIS FORECAST AND THERE COULD BE A
RECORD HIGH OR TWO THAT COULD FALL ON SUNDAY AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE SSW
WINDS. THE RECORD FOR SUNDAY AT THE OFFICE HERE IS 77 IN 1995 AND
THAT COULD BE IN JEOPARDY. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH CHANCE POPS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
DO HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS IN FOR THE KEWEENAW MON EVENING WITH SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING THERE IN NORTHWEST WIND LAKE EFFECT
BELTS. LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GET VERY WINDY IN THE KEWEENAW MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH. WILL
MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PRODUCT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...DID NOT MAKE
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. 12Z TUE WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED
MOVES INTO THE ERN TROUGH AND HELPS TO DIG THE TROUGH MORE ON WED
INTO THU WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN FOR FRI AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES IN
THE EASTERN U.S. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -5C TO -9C ON FRI WITH
THIS COLDER AIR...SO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AS LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 12C OR SO
AND THERE IS ENOUGH LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T FOR THIS TO OCCUR ALONG WITH
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS INTO THIS EVNG UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN HI
PRES STRETCHING FM THE OH RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LO PRES
OVER SCENTRAL CANADA. WITH SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING DURING THE EVNG...
THE WIND GUSTS WL DIMINISH AND ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LLWS BEFORE THE
PRES GRADIENT/WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL INVRN WEAKEN
SUFFICIENTLY TO END THE LLWS THREAT OVERNGT. SINCE THE SW FLOW WL BE
TAPPING DRY AIR...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS FCST PERIOD
AT ALL 3 TAF SITES DESPITE SOME HI CLDS INTO THIS EVNG.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2015
STRONG SW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS UNDER A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
A DEPARTING HI PRES RIDGE TO THE SE AND FALLING PRES OVER SCENTRAL
CANADA WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. BUT AS THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
WEAKENS THRU THE NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS RELATIVELY
WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL THRU SUN/SUN NIGHT AND BRING SW
WINDS UNDER 20 KTS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP LOW PRES THROUGH
THROUGH ONTARIO ON MON...STRONG W WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH MON NIGHT WHILE VEERING TO THE NW. SINCE COLDER AIR WILL BE
MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS...INCREASED MIXING WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD GALES THAT WILL REACH 40-45
KTS. OPTED TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR MON INTO TUE MORNING TO COVER
THIS POTENTIAL. TRAILING HI PRES WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS FOR
TUE INTO WED. AFTER ANOTHER TROF PASSES ON WED...EXPECT NW WINDS TO
INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS INTO THU.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ266-267.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ162-263.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ264.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
330 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
A FAST MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS TAKEN HOLD WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PULL COOLER AIR FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD AND REPLACE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
RAPIDLY DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE BIAS
CORRECTED MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TO MID
90S. THIS STRATEGY APPEARS TO BE WORKING THIS AFTERNOON AS HOURLY
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO THE OBSERVED READINGS. THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE WOULD HAVE TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE SFC TO GET CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE AND WE WILL SEE IF THAT
MATERIALIZES THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD BE
A FEW DEGREES TO WARM.
THE MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT USES THE SAME STRATEGY AS THE
MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST PRODUCING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT INCREASE SUNDAY AFTN TO 25 MPH.
GUSTS TO 35 MPH SEEM LIKELY ACROSS WRN NEB. THESE STRONGER WINDS
WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES WARM LATE IN THE AFTN AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THE GFS IS LEADING THE PACK WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING
IN FROM THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. THE MODEL IS
KNOWN FOR DEEP MIXING BUT APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING IT THIS AFTN. SO A
BLEND OF GFS AND OTHER MODELS WAS USED FOR THE DEW POINTS SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL GET IN RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS
WHICH RUN OUT TO 18 HRS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MORE ACCURATE FORECAST.
THE MODEL BLEND USED TODAY EFFECTIVELY NUDGES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND A RIDGE
ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A MOIST
TRAJECTORY INTO THE AREA. THUS...AS THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH THE
STATE SUNDAY EVENING...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES...
HOWEVER...WILL BE AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY. EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH LOWER MONDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...ALSO QUITE LOW. THEREFORE...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE 15 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST
SANDHILLS AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY OVER
EVEN MORE OF THE SANDHILLS AND IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. USING A
BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED STATISTICAL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM AND GFS...EVEN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...MILD DAYS AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED. THEN...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
A LARGE AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
DEEPEN ACROSS CNTL CANADA. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE FCST
AREA THIS AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
THE GFS IS LEADING THE PACK WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING
IN FROM THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. THE MODEL IS
KNOWN FOR DEEP MIXING BUT APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING IT THIS AFTN. SO A
BLEND OF GFS AND OTHER MODELS WAS USED FOR THE DEW POINTS SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL GET IN RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS
WHICH RUN OUT TO 18 HRS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MORE ACCURATE FORECAST.
THE MODEL BLEND USED TODAY EFFECTIVELY NUDGES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...COLE
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
FIRE WEATHER...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
248 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
A FAST MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS TAKEN HOLD WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PULL COOLER AIR FROM CANADA SOUTHWARD AND REPLACE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
RAPIDLY DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE BIAS
CORRECTED MAV...MET AND ECS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TO MID
90S. THIS STRATEGY APPEARS TO BE WORKING THIS AFTERNOON AS HOURLY
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO THE OBSERVED READINGS. THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SUPER ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE WOULD HAVE TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE SFC TO GET CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE AND WE WILL SEE IF THAT
MATERIALIZES THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST COULD BE
A FEW DEGREES TO WARM.
THE MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT USES THE SAME STRATEGY AS THE
MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST PRODUCING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT INCREASE SUNDAY AFTN TO 25 MPH.
GUSTS TO 35 MPH SEEM LIKELY ACROSS WRN NEB. THESE STRONGER WINDS
WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES WARM LATE IN THE AFTN AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THE GFS IS LEADING THE PACK WITH THE DRY AIR MOVING
IN FROM THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. THE MODEL IS
KNOWN FOR DEEP MIXING BUT APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING IT THIS AFTN. SO A
BLEND OF GFS AND OTHER MODELS WAS USED FOR THE DEW POINTS SUNDAY.
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL GET IN RANGE OF THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS
WHICH RUN OUT TO 18 HRS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MORE ACCURATE FORECAST.
THE MODEL BLEND USED TODAY EFFECTIVELY NUDGES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION SUGGESTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND A RIDGE
ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET A MOIST
TRAJECTORY INTO THE AREA. THUS...AS THE FRONT GOES ON THROUGH THE
STATE SUNDAY EVENING...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES...
HOWEVER...WILL BE AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY. EVEN
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH LOWER MONDAY...DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...ALSO QUITE LOW. THEREFORE...RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE 15 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS...
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE PANHANDLE AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST
SANDHILLS AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY OVER
EVEN MORE OF THE SANDHILLS AND IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. USING A
BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED STATISTICAL
OUTPUT FROM THE NAM AND GFS...EVEN THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...MILD DAYS AND SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED. THEN...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ARE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
A LARGE AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
DEEPEN ACROSS CNTL CANADA. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE FCST
AREA THIS AFTN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...COLE
SHORT TERM...COLE
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
946 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING RAIN AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
FOR DRY WEATHER. A WEAKER FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE...JUST ENTERING THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AROUND 15Z/8 AM.
WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BEEN BRINGING AREAS OF
RAIN TO W WA SINCE BEFORE SUNRISE. PER THE GFS20 THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ENHANCED PORTION
OF THE FRONTAL BAND ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFSHORE. FROPA STILL LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE AROUND MIDDAY FOR THE COAST AND 2 PM TO 3 PM FOR THE
INTERIOR.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS ALSO RIGHT WHERE THERE HAS BEEN
FREQUENT LIGHTNING OFFSHORE. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ALONG WITH THE COASTAL STRIP
FOR THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST ALREADY HAD A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE SAME AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BREAK UP A LITTLE WHILE CROSSING THE OLYMPICS SO IT IS LESS
CERTAIN THAT ANY LIGHTNING WILL MAKE IT E OVER THE INTERIOR.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS LIKE THE HRRR...LAM...AND UWWRF SHOW THE
CURRENT WIND AND PRECIP FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
WINDS SHOULD REACH BORDERLINE ADVISORY LEVELS...UP TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS 45 MPH...IN SPOTS OVER THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE N INTERIOR.
OVER THE GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
MENTION GUSTS TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THE FRONT SHOULD STILL PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA. THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALREADY
BROUGHT ROUGHLY TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH TO THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS...AND
THE FRONT ITSELF COULD DOUBLE THAT THIS AFTERNOON.
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
FOR SHOWERY WEATHER. A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE IS LIKELY AT
THAT TIME. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE.
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER W WA ON
SUNDAY FOR A DRY DAY. BUT PRECIP IS STILL CLOSE BY...AS THE GFS
SHOWS SOME SPOTTY PRECIP JUST ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GFS
TIME-HEIGHT SECTION FOR KSEA SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE
MORNING...DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE
OVERHEAD. SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY OVERALL.
MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY. SLOW ENOUGH SO THAT RAIN WILL PROBABLY ONLY REACH THE
COAST AND N INTERIOR IN THE MORNING...FINALLY SPREADING S OVER PUGET
SOUND IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PUT THE
GREATER PUGET SOUND REGION IN THE OLYMPIC RAIN SHADOW...SO THERE MAY
NOT BE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE WEAKENING
FRONT CONTINUES SAGGING SLOWLY S MONDAY EVENING AND SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. KAM
.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM THE 311 AM AFD...AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
INLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS OF COURSE...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS
LARGE SCALE IDEA. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TUESDAY... ESPECIALLY IF THE RECENT TREND IN THE MODELS
IS CORRECT. OTHERWISE THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY.
MCDONNAL
&&
.AVIATION...A VIGOROUS FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY AND
PUSH THROUGH THE PUGET SOUND REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE SOUTHEAST GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY
TODAY...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIR
MASS IS MOIST AND BECOMING UNSTABLE. CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT WESTERN WA...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY VFR CIGS 3-5K FT THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN FALL TO MOSTLY MVFR
1500-2500 FT WITH STEADY RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IN THE AFTERNOON.
KSEA...RAIN AT TIMES...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS
AT OR WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL AT 20 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. CIGS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR 3-4K FT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH STEADY RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PASS
THE TERMINAL BY AROUND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN TAPERING TO
SHOWERS. BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
RISING TO 15 TO 20 KT AND GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT.
&&
.MARINE...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING...AND PUSH THROUGH THE INLAND WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THEN BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. GALES ARE LIKELY ON THE COAST AND OVER
MOST OF THE INLAND WATERS. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY IN THE
STRAIT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN PUGET
SOUND WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT
WIND SPEEDS LIMITED IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE FOR THE SOUND BUT WILL
MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN WINDS SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS ON MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE.
SWELL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT WILL
BE IN THE 12 TO 15 FOOT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS THE FIRST
LARGE SWELL EVENT OF THE SEASON. PEOPLE ON THE COAST SHOULD USE
CAUTION WHEN APPROACHING THE SURF ZONE. DTM/CHB
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN SKAGIT
COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR CENTRAL COAST-NORTH COAST.
PZ...GALE WARNING COAST UNTIL 2 PM PDT TODAY.
GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...ADMIRALTY
INLET...AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COAST AND WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT
FROM 2 PM PDT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
&&
$$
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