Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/09/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
258 PM MST WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTH INTO MEXICO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LEAVING THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES UNDER A
DRIER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY PERIODIC
THICKER CLOUD COVER. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD CORE LOW
HAS TRANSLATED INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENVELOPING SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR
WESTERN ARIZONA. A COMPACT PV ANOMALY/VORTICITY CENTER IMMEDIATELY
UNDER THE COLD CORE (-15C AT H5) WAS FORCING WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT AROUND AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WERE SHIFTING EAST IN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY REMAINED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA.
NEVERTHELESS...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT ASCENT ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD CORE STILL EXISTED OVER MUCH OF GILA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL ROTATE ABOUT
THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING...AND IT IS
STILL CONCEIVABLY SOME SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
COULD ALSO SWING BACK WESTWARD TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS (I.E. HRRR AND WRF-NMM CORES) SUPPORT THIS IDEA
THOUGH AREAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE METRO...RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD CORE
LOW SINKING FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BECOMING DISASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERALL NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS...EAST PACIFIC RIDGING WILL FOLD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SUBSIDENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN A
REX-TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL STEADILY INCREASE WITH
H5 READINGS APPROACHING 590DM BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY CONDUCIVE TO DEEP MIXING AND
SEASONALLY EXCEPTIONAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS
(PHOENIX RECORD HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD ARE 100F-105F...AND FORECASTS
FALL NEARLY 10F BELOW THESE RECORDS). THUS...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH INTO AN ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY...MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING MAY
BE SOMEWHAT MUTED.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ALL THREE GLOBAL MODEL SUITES...AND MANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GEM ALL SLOWLY RETROGRADE THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS NW MEXICO BACK INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA.
EVENTUALLY...THE COLD COLD IS FORECAST TO SWING BACK NORTH TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH MORE SWLY TRAJECTORIES
ALOFT...AND MODELS WARM TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
RANGE. BEYOND TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE
RETURN TO A WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN AS THE UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE INLAND...HOWEVER SPREAD AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
GROWS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY YIELDING HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE FEATURE HAS BEGUN A SLOW EXIT INTO SOUTHEAST
AZ...LIMITING ANY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE PHOENIX-AREA TERMINALS. FEW TO SCT CU COVERAGE WILL
LINGER OVER THE PHX AREA TERMINALS THRU SUNSET...WITH SKC FOR
KIPL AND KBLH CONTINUING. A STRAY RAIN SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ON
THE EASTERN PHX AREA PERIPHERY...BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. WINDS TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
HEADINGS WITH SPEEDS GNLY 10KTS OR LESS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH
DAY WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY RETURNING INCREASED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICTS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO/PERCHA
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/NOLTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
210 PM MST WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTH INTO MEXICO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LEAVING THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES UNDER A
DRIER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY PERIODIC
THICKER CLOUD COVER. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD CORE LOW
HAS TRANSLATED INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENVELOPING SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR
WESTERN ARIZONA. A COMPACT PV ANOMALY/VORTICITY CENTER IMMEDIATELY
UNDER THE COLD CORE (-15C AT H5) WAS FORCING WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT AROUND AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WERE SHIFTING EAST IN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY REMAINED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA.
NEVERTHELESS...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT ASCENT ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD CORE STILL EXISTED OVER MUCH OF GILA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL ROTATE ABOUT
THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING...AND IT IS
STILL CONCEIVABLY SOME SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
COULD ALSO SWING BACK WESTWARD TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS (I.E. HRRR AND WRF-NMM CORES) SUPPORT THIS IDEA
THOUGH AREAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE METRO...RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD CORE
LOW SINKING FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BECOMING DISASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERALL NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS...EAST PACIFIC RIDGING WILL FOLD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SUBSIDENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN A
REX-TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL STEADILY INCREASE WITH
H5 READINGS APPROACHING 590DM BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY CONDUCIVE TO DEEP MIXING AND
SEASONALLY EXCEPTIONAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS
(PHOENIX RECORD HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD ARE 100F-105F...AND FORECASTS
FALL NEARLY 10F BELOW THESE RECORDS). THUS...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH INTO AN ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY...MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING MAY
BE SOMEWHAT MUTED.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ALL THREE GLOBAL MODEL SUITES...AND MANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GEM ALL SLOWLY RETROGRADE THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS NW MEXICO BACK INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA.
EVENTUALLY...THE COLD COLD IS FORECAST TO SWING BACK NORTH TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH MORE SWLY TRAJECTORIES
ALOFT...AND MODELS WARM TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
RANGE. BEYOND TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE
RETURN TO A WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN AS THE UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE INLAND...HOWEVER SPREAD AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
GROWS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY YIELDING HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST AZ TODAY. AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
CIRCULATE INTO THE PHOENIX VALLEY TODAY...HOWEVER VARIABLE CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE VICINITY THE KIWA
AIRFIELD BETWEEN 18Z WED AND 01Z THU. OTHERWISE...SCT TO OCNL BKN
CLDS 8 TO 10 THSD AGL. LIGHT AND VRB WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THROUGH 02Z THU. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
NLY SFC WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS DEVELOPING BTWN 18Z WED AND 01Z THU.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH
DAY. GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO/PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
935 PM MST TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DECREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED TO START WEDNESDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA...BETTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
ON THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR YAVAPAI/MOHAVE COUNTY BORDER THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME MUCH MORE STABLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
THAN EARLIER TODAY WITH ACTIVITY AIDED BY AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT
VORT MAX. RAP ADVERTISES A TRAILING VORT MAX TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT BUT WEAKEN IN THE PROCESS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND
MOIST CONDITIONS THAT THE WEAKENING VORT MAX COULD WORK WITH...HELD
ON TO POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MAY NEED TO NUDGE DOWN HIGH
POPS OVER ZONE 24 THOUGH. WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF A
SHOWER BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...EXPECT IT WOULD
BE VERY BRIEF AND VERY LOCALIZED. WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE
MID 60S THIS EVENING...WILL MAKE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MIN
TEMP FORECASTS. AS FOR THE UPPER LOW...IT TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BECOMING CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY
00Z THURSDAY. SO THERE WILL STILL BE A LINGERING OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP BUT NOT AS GOOD AS TODAY...ESPECIALLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED 220 PM MST 06 OCTOBER...
SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AZ. AMDAR UL WIND
FIELDS AND EARLY AFTN SATELLITE LOOPS PLOT THE LOW CIRC CENTER
SPANNING ACROSS MOHAVE/YAVAPAI COUNTIES WITH LINES OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG ASCENT REGIONS/VORTICITY
LOBES...ONE STRETCHING SW THROUGH YUMA AND MARICOPA COUNTIES AND AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF ENHANCED STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ FROM
TUCSON THROUGH SHOW LOW. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS IN THE
BALLPARK OF 20-30KTS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND UNIDIRECTION INFLOW
WINDS HAVE HELPED STORM PROPAGATION AND UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON.
LAPSE RATES QUICKLY STEEPENED IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-TROP FRONT/VORT
LOBE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AZ AND STORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPED SHORTLY
AFTER OVER THE SW AZ DESERTS IN THE LATE AM. THE HEAVIEST
STORMS...AS OF THIS WRITING...WERE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PHX
METRO AND INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY WITH AN ADDITIONAL UPWARD PULSE MOVING
TOWARDS MARICOPA/CASA GRANDE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND VERY ISO STORM
ACTIVITY WAS STILL FILLING BACK IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST MARICOPA/PINAL
COUNTY...MOST NOT TO THE INTENSITY THAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE
DAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE WAKE FLOW BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO FAR WESTERN AZ
AND ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHEAST CA...THE POP GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD.
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANY LINGERING RUMBLES
OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE FOR MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH A FAIR BIT OF THE ACTIVITY LOSING ITS PUNCH AFTER
SUNSET. CLEARER SKIES AND MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WARMING HAS ALLOWED
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO WARM JUST SHY OF NORMAL FOR THE WESTERN
FORECAST ZONES...WHILE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS.
THE UL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AZ
PERSISTING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES
NEARING MINUS 14-15C FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH PERSISTENT COOLING AND
LINGERING LL MOISTURE FIELDS...THERE WILL STILL BE A DECENT CHANCE
OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF
PHOENIX DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE RAIN THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS OUR AREA. WHAT DOESN`T RESULT AS
PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FORM
SIGNIFICANT CU FIELDS BEFORE WAKE SUBSIDENCE ROTATES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH...DISSIPATING THE CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO ON THURSDAY WHILE RIDGING
ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL START TO OVERTAKE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL VARY QUITE A BIT WITH
AREAWIDE HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE
DESERTS. AS RIDGING ALOFT TAKES OVER AND HEIGHTS DRAMATICALLY
INCREASE BY LATE THIS WEEK...HIGHS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...REACHING
NORMALS OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ON THURSDAY AND THEN WIDESPREAD 95-100
DEGREE HIGHS OVER THE DESERTS FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG
RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN CYCLING THE
SAME UPPER LOW BACK WESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA
PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND...SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT IT MAY AGAIN BRING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME MUCH MORE STABLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO. ONLY SOME LINGERING ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...LOCALLY LOWERING THE CEILINGS TO BKN070-090 MSL.
EXPECT MOST OF THESE WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF METRO.
OTHERWISE...SOME LINGERING MID CLOUDS AOA 10 KFT MSL OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS HIGHLY VARIABLE THROUGH 07Z BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD
NORTHEAST AND EAST.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 10 KFT MSL...LOCALLY BROKEN...TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS FAVORING NORTHERLY DIRECTIONS THOUGH
SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION IN THIS TIME
PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HIGHER MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/MEYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
928 PM MST TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
COVERAGE FROM TUCSON AND POINTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION
EXPECT COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN A
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO AND INTERNATIONAL BORDERS INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IT WAS A FAIRLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DURING
THE LATE-MORNING HOURS AND RACED NORTHEASTWARD AMIDST STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY. CONDITIONS HAVE QUIETED DOWN
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND WE`RE CURRENTLY LEFT WITH JUST A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY (PER THE 07/00Z
KTWC SOUNDING AND SPC MESOANALYSIS)...LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND
GOOD JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LOW (AN
IMPLIED JET STREAK IS VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PIVOTING
INTO MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES)...EXPECTING CONTINUED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FEEL THE LATEST 07/02Z HRRR IS
LATCHING ON TO THE RIGHT TRENDS FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...PERHAPS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL GIVEN THE
COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE INHERITED
FORECAST IS HANDLING THIS IDEA WELL SO DO NOT PLAN ON ANY UPDATES
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED AREAS OF VALLEY FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS THAT CAN CLEAR OUT AND
RADIATIVELY COOL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO ISN`T HIGH
ENOUGH TO THROW INTO THE GRIDS.
FOR TOMORROW...THE UPPER-LOW WILL FINALLY PIVOT THROUGH THE
REGION...ON ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY. AS THE MAIN
CORE OF THE VERY COLD MID-LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA...IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH INSOLATION TO START POPPING STORMS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
LATE MORNING HOURS...ALBEIT WITH LESS OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 08/06Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH BASES
GENERALLY 4-9 KFT AGL. LOCALIZED AREAS OF VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE
DEPENDENT ON CLEARING OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST OF A KGXF-KTUS-KOLS LINE. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF TSRA INFLUENCES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HANGING AROUND THE
SW US MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SE AZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD...A STRONG EAST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER SE
ARIZONA FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIDING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD
TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NEARLY OVERHEAD.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD IN ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
INTO THE GREAT BASIN NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE UPPER LOW LOSES ITS MID
LATITUDE SUPPORT AND RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.
THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD TO WEST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES...AND THE UPPER LOW CUT-OFF UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...THE FLOW
ACROSS ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHERLY. LIMITED MOISTURE...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
CARLAW
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
928 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
BANDS OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING.
THE LIONS SHARE OF THE PCPN WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO 06Z WITH
DECREASING ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS TIMING. THIS ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS
SO NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE. IT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REST OF THE
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH SHALLOW
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND IT. AIRMASS IS RATHER STABLE AND ONLY
MARGINALLY MOIST THOUGH...SO ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXPECTED WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR DUE TO LOCATION OF
UPPER JET. BUT STILL EXPECT A FEW TO DRIFT OFF THE FOOTHILLS INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WELL. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST
AMOUNTS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
THE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER A LITTLE PAST MIDNIGHT ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS WHERE SOME DIVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL EXIST...BUT OVERALL WEAK Q-G LIFT WILL BE REPLACED
BY LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AN ELEVATED LAYER OF STRATUS SHOULD BE LEFT BEHIND BUT ONLY
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS/WYOMING BORDER AREA
WHERE MORE BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT.
FOR FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL BREAK WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. STILL LOOK FOR SOME HIGH
CLOUDS BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND WE WILL
HAVE WEAK WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A LEE
TROUGH AND A THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE UPPER 80S. THE RECORD TEMPERATURE AT DENVER OF 89 DEGREES WAS
SET IN 1910...WE WILL FLIRT WITH THE RECORD ON SATURDAY.
A TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...AND CAUSE
WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FIRE DANGER MAY BE ELEVATED IN THE
AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN SATURDAY...BUT MAY
AGAIN THREATEN THE RECORD TEMPERATURE IN DENVER OF 85 DEGREES
WHICH WAS SET IN 1996. A SPRINKLE MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF US...FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT DRY.
MONDAY IS COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ONLY UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S ON THE PLAINS. COOL AIR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AND WE
SHOULD HAVE TWO WARMER DAYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.
ANOTHER DRY TROUGH WILL SWEEP BY ON THURSDAY...DROPPING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
WEAK UPSLOPE WILL ALLOW FOR ILS RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES WITH OCNL
BKN CIGS 5000-7000 FEET THROUGH 09Z...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 06Z. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS TO
DROP CLOSER TO 4000 FEET FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN THE TAFS. THE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD
BREAK UP TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
THE NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND TURN MORE
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH 06Z THEN TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY UNDER 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO MORE EASTERLY AGAIN
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...RTG
AVIATION...COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1127 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
CURRENTLY...
AT 2 AM...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLD -TSRA WERE NOTED OVER NE EL PASO
COUNTY. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDED ALONG THE S I-25
CORRIDOR. SHOWERS WERE ALSO LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CONTDVD AS
PER SAT PIX IMGY AND OBS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL ARIZ.
TODAY...
UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HRRR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL...BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S IN THE VALLEYS.
TONIGHT...
ANY PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE U40S TO AROUND 50 0VER
THE PLAINS...AND 30S AND 40S IN THE VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS. EXPECT WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND
WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO OFF THE BAJA COAST...WHILE WEAK
ENERGY WILL TRANSVERSE COLORADO IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT A
FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD BY
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...HOWEVER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO UNDER WARMING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 70S ON FRIDAY...TO LOWER TO
MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1024 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
CURRENTLY...
AT 2 AM...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLD -TSRA WERE NOTED OVER NE EL PASO
COUNTY. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDED ALONG THE S I-25
CORRIDOR. SHOWERS WERE ALSO LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CONTDVD AS
PER SAT PIX IMGY AND OBS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL ARIZ.
TODAY...
UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HRRR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL...BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S IN THE VALLEYS.
TONIGHT...
ANY PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE U40S TO AROUND 50 0VER
THE PLAINS...AND 30S AND 40S IN THE VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS. EXPECT WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND
WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO OFF THE BAJA COAST...WHILE WEAK
ENERGY WILL TRANSVERSE COLORADO IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT A
FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD BY
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...HOWEVER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO UNDER WARMING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 70S ON FRIDAY...TO LOWER TO
MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
SOME LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. FROM MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL
AT KALS...VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24H.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
403 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
CURRENTLY...
AT 2 AM...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLD -TSRA WERE NOTED OVER NE EL PASO
COUNTY. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDED ALONG THE S I-25
CORRIDOR. SHOWERS WERE ALSO LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CONTDVD AS
PER SAT PIX IMGY AND OBS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL ARIZ.
TODAY...
UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HRRR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL...BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S IN THE VALLEYS.
TONIGHT...
ANY PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE U40S TO AROUND 50 0VER
THE PLAINS...AND 30S AND 40S IN THE VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS. EXPECT WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND
WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO OFF THE BAJA COAST...WHILE WEAK
ENERGY WILL TRANSVERSE COLORADO IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT A
FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD BY
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...HOWEVER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO UNDER WARMING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 70S ON FRIDAY...TO LOWER TO
MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
SOME LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. FROM MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL
AT KALS...VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24H.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1011 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY WEATHER ALONG
WITH A WARMING TREND. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY
BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWNWARD
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MA AS TEMPS REMAIN IN FREEFALL GIVEN DRY
AIRMASS... CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. MANY LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHEAST MA ARE ALREADY DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S! HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH NEAR
SHORE BUOYS ALREADY REPORTING SE WINDS 10-15 KT. THIS EXPECTING
TEMPS TO STABILIZE AND THEN BEGIN TO RISE LATE OR TOWARD MORNING.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH 18Z NAM/GFS/21Z SREF AND LATEST
RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR HOLD OFF MOST OF THE SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER
12Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHWEST MA THAT MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS
TOWARD 12Z. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION REMAINS DRY OVERNIGHT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
==================================================================
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
LATER TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY NOW THAT SUN HAS
SET BEFORE RECOVERING DUE TO CLOUDS AND S FLOW OVERNIGHT. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES WHICH REFLECT THIS TREND.
LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT STILL WELL BACK
ACROSS GREAT LAKES. KEPT IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NW MA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN WAY OF RAIN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
WHICH AGREES WITH 21Z HRRR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE DEALING WITH THE
COMBINATION OF A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT. THE
PARENT LOW PRESSURE OF THIS STORM WILL MOST PROBABLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH...WHICH WOULD PLACE OUR REGION IN A MORE FAVORABLE REGION
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS RATHER POOR...BUT THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH SHEAR FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET TO ORGANIZE THE ENERGY WHICH
WILL BE IN PLACE. KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST.
THE OTHER ISSUE WHICH REMAINS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS.
LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO
INDICATE GUST POTENTIAL JUST UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERION. THE
GREATEST RISK WOULD BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THINKING THERE MIGHT BE TOO STRONG A MARINE
INVERSION OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE
A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID...EVEN THESE WINDS SPEEDS
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING DOWN SMALL BRANCHES AND LIMBS GIVEN
TREES REMAIN FULLY-LEAVED.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WHICH WILL BE A BIT OF A WARMUP
FROM TODAY...DESPITE THE CLOUDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THIS FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND...WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
* FEW SHOWERS TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES POINT TO RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH
OF WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK DESPITE SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS MOVING
THROUGH...LEADING TO OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST.
ONE POINT OF UNCERTAINTY DEALS WITH UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM
SOUTHEASTERN STATES MON/TUE WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT RUNS INTO
RIDGING OVER ATLANTIC. QUESTION OF WHETHER IT GETS SHUNTED WELL OUT
TO SEA HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...OR DOES IT
BECOME CAPTURED BY TROUGH ENTERING GREAT LAKES WHICH ALLOWS MOISTURE
TO BE DRAWN INTO APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SAT THROUGH MON...
HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKING GREAT FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION. WHAT IS INITIALLY A CHILLY START SAT
WITH HIGHS IN 50S WARMS INTO 60S IF NOT SOME LOWER 70S BY MON AS
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS.
TUE...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF REGION.
PROBABLY NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN WAY OF RAINFALL UNLESS MOISTURE FROM
EJECTING SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW CAN GET INTO PICTURE...WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS OF NOW GEFS
KEEPS BULK OF THAT RAINFALL OFFSHORE.
WED AND THU...
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
10 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM 00Z TAFS. SHOWERS HOLD OFF
TIL AFTER 12Z FRI. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
==================================================================
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
SEA BREEZES SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT S/SW FLOW PREVAILING
TONIGHT. PUSHED BACK TIMING OF MVFR CIGS UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AS SATELLITE SHOWS VFR CIGS ALL WAY BACK
TO EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO ARRIVE. ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRI MORNING.
FRIDAY...MVFR BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS FROM WEST TO EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AFTER
18Z AS STRONG LOW LEVEL SW JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST MA. SMALL
RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY
LINGERING -SHRA/FOG DURING THE EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FARTHER
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BECOME SSW TOWARD MORNING.
FRIDAY...SSW WINDS INCREASE AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SSW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
POSSIBLE. WE MAY NEED A GALE WARNING FOR SOME OF THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS
AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS...INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
FRONT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR
MOST WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER WATERS SAT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SEAS...BUT MAY NEED TO CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR 5 FT SEAS
ON OUTER WATERS. HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE SUN/MON RESULTING IN S/SW FLOW
BUT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUE WITH FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. EXPECT
INCREASING SW WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT BUT PROBABLY REMAINING BELOW SCA.
SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT ON OUTER WATERS...MORE AS RESULT OF POSSIBLE
SWELLS FROM LOW PRESSURE TO OUR S THAN FROM COLD FRONT ITSELF.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ232>234-236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ235-237-250-254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/JWD
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/JWD
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...BELK/NOCERA/JWD
MARINE...BELK/JWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
621 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
SOME PASSING CLOUDS. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL RETURN THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT...A WEAK COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS HARD TO DEPICT IN
SFC OBS...WITH A VERY SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND DROP IN DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AS WELL AS THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.
3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION PASSING NORTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT. A LACK OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FORCING SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING OUTSIDE A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FA FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATER TONIGHT. SKY COVER
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN 40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR TOMORROW...ALLOWING
FOR A COMPLETELY DRY DAY. SKY COVER WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. DESPITE THE FULL SUNSHINE...TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE FEW PAST DAYS DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FOR THURSDAY EVENING...AS A STORM
SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST...AND HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND SEACOAST. WITH A WARM FRONT QUICKLY
ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SOME RAIN WILL START TO SPREAD
TOWARDS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
PROBABLY WON/T PICK UP IN INTENSITY UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY...MOST AREAS WILL BE SEEING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTO NW CT...WHERE THE RAIN MAY BE MISSING THESE AREAS
JUST TO THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE MILDER DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...WITH MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY...THE NEARBY PASSING LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON FRIDAY LOOK HEAVIEST FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS
COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW CT.
RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF ON FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. IN TOTAL...AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN
WILL FALL FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH FOR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS. A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ADIRONDACKS...ESP FOR W-SW FACING SLOPES...WHERE UPSLOPE
MAY INCREASE RAINFALL. TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A GENERALLY DRY...AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS THE NORTHERN JETSTREAM DOMINATES.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE MON NT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION...AS
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE NEAR OR
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY REDUCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AN
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND SFC COLD FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO
ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WARM/COLD ADVECTION WITH EACH PASSING
IMPULSE. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
SHOULD BE MON-TUE...BEFORE POTENTIALLY TRENDING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.
HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...
SAT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS SAT AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY
BE COOL ON SAT/SAT NT...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAT
NT/SUN AM WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
30S. SOME FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON REMAINS. BY SUN...AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WIND DEVELOPING. SUN NT/MON AM SHOULD BE MILDER THAN SAT NT/SUN
AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE 40S. THEN ON MON...A CONTINUES S/SW
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST 65-70 IN VALLEYS...AND
60-65 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER
TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEYS.
MON NT-WED...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MON NT INTO TUE. AGAIN...THERE ARE SOME MIXED SIGNALS
AS TO WHETHER THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE BEING DEFLECTED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE...OR IF ANY OFFSHORE SYSTEM REMAINS
WEAKER AND/OR NON EXISTENT...AND ALLOWS FOR A GREATER INFLUX OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. FOR NOW...HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR LATE MON NT INTO TUE...HIGHEST ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSER TO STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY BECOMES MORE DEFINITIVE. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION LATER TUE NT...AND OFF THE EAST COAST WED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD MON
NT/TUE AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME
WARMER MINS POSSIBLE. TUE MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S
IN VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT IS ANY SLOWER...EVEN WARMER TEMPS COULD
OCCUR. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 40S...THEN
ONLY RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WED...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY
RISE INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE
THURSDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW SKIES TO
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MAINLY
SCATTERED DECK AT KALB AND KGFL...AND SCATTERED/BROKEN AT KPOU AND
KPSF. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN TOWARDS
EARLY EVENING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANY
CEILING THAT DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AT KALB AND KPSF.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3-5 KFT ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE...SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AT
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING TOWARDS
SUNRISE...AND IF THIS CLEARING OCCURS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KGFL...KPOU AND KPSF. A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION AT KALB ALTHOUGH SOME
GROUND FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IF WINDS BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
ANY PATCHY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z THURSDAY ALONG
WITH ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT BETWEEN 4-8 KNOTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...RH VALUES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT NW
BREEZE.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 40 TO 45 PERCENT ON THURSDAY WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 MPH OR
LESS. RH VALUES WILL RETURN BACK TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT AGAIN WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
ON FRIDAY...RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO 6O TO 75 PERCENT WITH A
WETTING RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...TO AROUND AN INCH
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR. BEHIND THIS STORM
SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
356 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
SOME PASSING CLOUDS. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL RETURN THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT...A WEAK COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
LAKE ONTARIO AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS HARD TO DEPICT IN SFC
OBS...WITH A VERY SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND DROP IN DEWPOINTS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU...AND THESE ARE
MOVING TOWARDS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA...AND A LACK OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FORCING SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING OUTSIDE A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE
FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATER TONIGHT. SKY COVER
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN 40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR TOMORROW...ALLOWING
FOR A COMPLETELY DRY DAY. SKY COVER WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. DESPITE THE FULL SUNSHINE...TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE FEW PAST DAYS DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FOR THURSDAY EVENING...AS A STORM
SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST...AND HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND SEACOAST. WITH A WARM FRONT QUICKLY
ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SOME RAIN WILL START TO SPREAD
TOWARDS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
PROBABLY WON/T PICK UP IN INTENSITY UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY...MOST AREAS WILL BE SEEING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTO NW CT...WHERE THE RAIN MAY BE MISSING THESE AREAS
JUST TO THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE MILDER DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...WITH MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY...THE NEARBY PASSING LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON FRIDAY LOOK HEAVIEST FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS
COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW CT.
RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF ON FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. IN TOTAL...AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN
WILL FALL FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH FOR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS. A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ADIRONDACKS...ESP FOR W-SW FACING SLOPES...WHERE UPSLOPE
MAY INCREASE RAINFALL. TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A GENERALLY DRY...AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS THE NORTHERN JETSTREAM DOMINATES.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE MON NT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION...AS
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE NEAR OR
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY REDUCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AN
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND SFC COLD FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO
ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WARM/COLD ADVECTION WITH EACH PASSING
IMPULSE. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
SHOULD BE MON-TUE...BEFORE POTENTIALLY TRENDING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.
HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...
SAT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS SAT AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY
BE COOL ON SAT/SAT NT...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAT
NT/SUN AM WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
30S. SOME FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON REMAINS. BY SUN...AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WIND DEVELOPING. SUN NT/MON AM SHOULD BE MILDER THAN SAT NT/SUN
AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE 40S. THEN ON MON...A CONTINUES S/SW
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST 65-70 IN VALLEYS...AND
60-65 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER
TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEYS.
MON NT-WED...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MON NT INTO TUE. AGAIN...THERE ARE SOME MIXED SIGNALS
AS TO WHETHER THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE BEING DEFLECTED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE...OR IF ANY OFFSHORE SYSTEM REMAINS
WEAKER AND/OR NON EXISTENT...AND ALLOWS FOR A GREATER INFLUX OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. FOR NOW...HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR LATE MON NT INTO TUE...HIGHEST ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSER TO STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY BECOMES MORE DEFINITIVE. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION LATER TUE NT...AND OFF THE EAST COAST WED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD MON
NT/TUE AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME
WARMER MINS POSSIBLE. TUE MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S
IN VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT IS ANY SLOWER...EVEN WARMER TEMPS COULD
OCCUR. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 40S...THEN
ONLY RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WED...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY
RISE INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE
THURSDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW SKIES TO
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MAINLY
SCATTERED DECK AT KALB AND KGFL...AND SCATTERED/BROKEN AT KPOU AND
KPSF. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN TOWARDS
EARLY EVENING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANY
CEILING THAT DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AT KALB AND KPSF.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3-5 KFT ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE...SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AT
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING TOWARDS
SUNRISE...AND IF THIS CLEARING OCCURS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KGFL...KPOU AND KPSF. A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION AT KALB ALTHOUGH SOME
GROUND FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IF WINDS BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
ANY PATCHY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z THURSDAY ALONG
WITH ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT BETWEEN 4-8 KNOTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...RH VALUES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT NW
BREEZE.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 40 TO 45 PERCENT ON THURSDAY WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 MPH OR
LESS. RH VALUES WILL RETURN BACK TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT AGAIN WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
ON FRIDAY...RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO 6O TO 75 PERCENT WITH A
WETTING RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...TO AROUND AN INCH
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR. BEHIND THIS STORM
SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
143 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS AGAIN TODAY...THEN COOL TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS
THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...AN AREA OF CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE...AREAS
OF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS AND SRN VT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THIN OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MOST AREAS
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF A RAIN SHOWER
FOR THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS UPPER RADAR IMAGERY AND THE
3KM HRRR ALL SUGGEST A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 65-70 RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
60-65 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS COULD OCCUR
IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE ADDITIONAL WARMING
DUE TO A STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING W/NW WIND MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESP THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTH
INCREASES...AND MID LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN. EXPECT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER
GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...PERHAPS UP
TO 25-30 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME PASSING CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME GUSTINESS EARLY TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER AIR WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO THE 60S
WITH VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
THU NT-FRI...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE THU NT/EARLY FRI...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT...WILL CROSS THE
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
THU NT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF
ALBANY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FRI...WITH THE MOST FREQUENT SHOWERS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...WHICH WILL BE FROM I-90 NORTHWARD. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 40 TO AROUND 50. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID OR
UPPER 50S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST
HAVING PASSED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. WITH SOME LIGHT
QPF POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N-NW BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WELL.
SATURDAY MAY START OUT RATHER CLOUDY...BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. IT MAY TIME SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SOME FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
OUTSIDE THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND A W-SW BREEZE.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM OF
THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL RESULT IN EVEN WARMER AIR MOVING INTO OUR
REGION. HIGHS COULD APPROACH 70 FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING SO WILL ONLY MENTION A LOW PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE
THURSDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW SKIES TO
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MAINLY
SCATTERED DECK AT KALB AND KGFL...AND SCATTERED/BROKEN AT KPOU AND
KPSF. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN TOWARDS
EARLY EVENING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANY
CEILING THAT DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AT KALB AND KPSF.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3-5 KFT ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE...SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AT
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING TOWARDS
SUNRISE...AND IF THIS CLEARING OCCURS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KGFL...KPOU AND KPSF. A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION AT KALB ALTHOUGH SOME
GROUND FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IF WINDS BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
ANY PATCHY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z THURSDAY ALONG
WITH ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT BETWEEN 4-8 KNOTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WHEN ONE
QUARTER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT BOTH TONIGHT AND WED NT...WITH DEW FORMATION LIKELY. THE
RH WILL FALL TO 45-55 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE
EARLY TONIGHT AT 5-15 MPH...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS IN THE ALBANY HYDRO
SERVICE AREA.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
THROUGH THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF A QUARTER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF
AN INCH OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE THU NT INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE MINOR RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS AGAIN TODAY...THEN COOL TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS
THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...AN AREA OF CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE...AREAS
OF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS AND SRN VT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THIN OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MOST AREAS
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF A RAIN SHOWER
FOR THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS UPPER RADAR IMAGERY AND THE
3KM HRRR ALL SUGGEST A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 65-70 RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
60-65 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS COULD OCCUR
IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE ADDITIONAL WARMING
DUE TO A STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING W/NW WIND MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESP THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTH
INCREASES...AND MID LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN. EXPECT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER
GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...PERHAPS UP
TO 25-30 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME PASSING CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME GUSTINESS EARLY TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER AIR WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO THE 60S
WITH VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
THU NT-FRI...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE THU NT/EARLY FRI...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT...WILL CROSS THE
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
THU NT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF
ALBANY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FRI...WITH THE MOST FREQUENT SHOWERS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...WHICH WILL BE FROM I-90 NORTHWARD. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 40 TO AROUND 50. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID OR
UPPER 50S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST
HAVING PASSED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. WITH SOME LIGHT
QPF POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N-NW BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WELL.
SATURDAY MAY START OUT RATHER CLOUDY...BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. IT MAY TIME SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SOME FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
OUTSIDE THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND A W-SW BREEZE.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM OF
THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL RESULT IN EVEN WARMER AIR MOVING INTO OUR
REGION. HIGHS COULD APPROACH 70 FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING SO WILL ONLY MENTION A LOW PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WIDESPREAD STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
CIGS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN VFR RANGE EXCEPT FOR MVFR LEVELS AT
KPSF. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY VFR AT KPSF BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON TO SCOUR OUT...AS BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...
CLOUDS MAY RE-DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH CIGS IN VFR RANGE THOUGH.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 5 KT
THROUGH...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AT NEAR 10 KT BY LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WHEN ONE
QUARTER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT BOTH TONIGHT AND WED NT...WITH DEW FORMATION LIKELY. THE
RH WILL FALL TO 45-55 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE
EARLY TONIGHT AT 5-15 MPH...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS IN THE ALBANY HYDRO
SERVICE AREA.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
THROUGH THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF A QUARTER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF
AN INCH OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE THU NT INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE MINOR RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1150 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT, AND AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH DURING FRIDAY, AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON
WEDNESDAY, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1230 AM ESTF UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS PUTS AN END TO COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND STILL LOOKING FOR SCT LIGHT SHOWERS TO FORM/DEVELOP ON
RADAR OVER EASTERN PA AROUND 6 AM IN THE INSTABILITY BURST. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND DEVELOPS.
FRIDAY...LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN FCST EXPECTATIONS AS PRESENTED IN
THURSDAY`S AFD`S. AFTER ANY SCT EARLY MORNING LIGHT SHOWERS END,
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. A DECK OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE VCNTY KRDG-
KABE-KFWN WESTWARD AT DAYBREAK SHOULD LIFT AND THIN BY 16Z.
MLCAPE OF 300-700J, NOT TOO SHABBY FOR OCTOBER, COMBINED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SET OFF AROUND 70 PCT COVERAGE OF
MEASURABLE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
PROBABLY DEPICTED SOON BY THE HRRR AND PREVIOUSLY MODELED BY 12Z/8
SPC WRF AND NOW ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MODELED BY THE 00Z/9 SPCWRF
AND NSSL WRF. BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT BUT STRONG 40= KT WINDS AT
500MB SUGGEST POTENCY. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS REACHES THE
COASTS BY 00Z.
PWAT INCREASING FROM 1" NOW TO 1.6 THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOME OF
THE RAIN WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY.
FCST WILL HAVE CHANCE TSTM HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS TODAY NEAR 80F I-95 SEWD WITH SW WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON, AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SLIGHTLY COOLER
ALONG THE WATERS EDGE, ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY COUNTY AND OF COURSE
NOT QUITE AS WARM IN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...AGAIN NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY WRITTEN THURSDAY
AFD SCENARIO. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS NEAR THE CF AT 8
PM THIS FRIDAY EVENING (MAINLY SE NJ AND THE SRN PORTION OF THE
DELMARVA) SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO SEA ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH CLOUD OVER MAY REMAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE COOLING AND DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT
WITH NW SURFACE WINDS GUSTY TO 20 MPH BECOMING NLY TOWARD MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
THE MEAN 500 HPA PATTERN IN D+2 TO D+7 PERIOD FEATURES A RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE MAIN PLAYERS AFFECTING THE
OUTCOME OF THE PATTERN ARE A SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE CARVES
OUT A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST IN THE SATURDAY
THRU TUESDAY PERIOD. MEANWHILE, THE SECOND SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ON TUESDAY, WHILE THE RESULTANT HEIGHT
FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE.
AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT, IT WILL
STALL WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME, THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA, WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THRU SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, PVA
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH IN THE EAST
BECOMES, WHICH AFFECTS THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND JUST HOW FAR
WEST OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS. THIS INTRODUCES EVEN FURTHER
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON THURSDAY.
OVERALL, THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THIS OUTCOME IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY,
OTHERWISE NEAR AVERAGE.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY...A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH MAY
LEAD TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER DELMARVA EARLY, BUT OTHERWISE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED. AFTER A BREEZY START, WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.
ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY MORNING,
WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP AT LEAST INTO THE MID-30S IN
THE VICINITY OF I-80 AND POINTS NORTH. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES,
THIS MAY NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY IN LATER FORECASTS. AFTER A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON SUNDAY, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY, BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU OUR AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST OFFSHORE. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF WHICH THESE TWO FEATURES INTERACT,
WHICH IMPACTS THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF PRECIP. PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, HOWEVER,
IT COULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE IF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS INCORPORATED
INTO THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY,
BUT UNTIL THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS RESOLVED,
THIS IS OUTCOME IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH ISOLATED IFR FOG IN
THE COUNTRYSIDE BECOMING WIDESPREAD CIGS AOA 5000 FT BY MORNING
WITH A LIGHT BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND. CIGS NEAR 1500 FT MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD 11Z VCNTY KRDG AND KABE IN THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOIST ADVECTION. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z E PA.
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...ANY MVFR CIGS E PA WILL LIFT BY 16Z WITH
WIDESPREAD CIGS AOA 4000 FT. GUSTY SW WIND TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE CFP. A 1 HOUR BAND OF BRIEF IFR SHOWERS AND
SCT TSTMS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING EWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL
FOR WESTERLY GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR ANY TSTMS.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT OFFSHORE
BETWEEN 00Z-02Z/10 WITH VFR CIGS CLEARING TO REVEAL ONLY CIRRUS
AFTER 06Z/10. WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY NW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KT, THEN TURNING NORTHERLY TOWARD 10Z SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINE ALREADY POSTED AND AT 330 AM WILL BE EXTENDED FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...NO SCA. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING.
FRIDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND AND SEAS
ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 25 KT, ESPECIALLY NJ
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATLANTIC SEAS 4-5 FT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS,
POSSIBLY REACHING FIVE FEET. THUS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 1150
SHORT TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1150
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 1150
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON 1150
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
922 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.DISCUSSION... LTST ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN TO LAST NIGHT
WITH PRESENCE OF AN INDUCED COASTAL TROUGH AND LOCAL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE MARINE TO LAND INTERFACE. 915 MHZ PROFILER DATA FROM XMR
SHOWS AN INCRSG DEPTH AND SPEED OF EASTERLIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS WITH 10 TO 15 KTS BLO 5K FT. RECENT SOUNDING DAT FROM THE SAME
LOCATION SHOWS A RELATIVELY MOIST LAYER BLO H7 WITH AN OVERALL PWAT
OF 1.82 INCHES. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCT SHRA OVER OPEN ATLC SOUTH OF
CANAVERAL POISED TO DRIFT TO THE COAST AND IT IS SAFE TO ASSUME
LOOKING AT HRRR PROJECTION OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHING THE COAST WITH
SOME MEASURABLE RAINS MAINLY SOUTH OF MELBOURNE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
LESSER COVERAGE NORTH OF COCOA BEACH TO VOLUSIA CO. SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE A QUARTER INCH IN SOME SPOTS ALONG THE TREASURE
CST BARRIER ISLANDS BY DAYBREAK WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT SHOWER BANDS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL SPREAD
TOWARD THE CST FM MLB-VRB-FPR-SUA WHILE PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS MNLY ALG CST OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE INLAND LOCATIONS WL SEE VFR
CONDS WITH ISOLD CIGS MNLY ALNG CST N OF MLB TO DAB.
&&
.MARINE...LTST WIND OBS WL REQUIRE CONTINUATION OF CAUTION CONDS
OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH A NEARSHORE CAUTION OVER THE SEGMENT
SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET DUE TO WIND/SEA COMBINATION. THIS MAINLY
ACCOUNTS FOR THE GULF STREAM CONDITIONS WHICH WL SEE A HIGHER CHOP
IN THE PRESENCE OF SWELL AND LOCAL WIND.
&&
.HYDRO...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS 3.23 FEET AT 8:30 PM
WHICH WAS ABOUT 0.4 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD BETWEEN 3.1 AND 3.2 FT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
THE SAINT JOHNS AT DELAND SHOWS A VERY SLOW RISE THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS TO 3.55 FEET AS OF 8:30 PM. ACTION STAGE REMAINS A LITTLE
HIGHER AT 3.70 FEET AND ANY APPROACHES TO NEARING THAT LEVEL
SHOULD TAKE AWHILE TO OCCUR.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
JP/DKW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1258 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
AND ANY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE
REGION. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...COULD SEE PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY UPPER RIDGING WEST
OF THE REGION FLATTENING DURING THE PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH JUST THIN HIGH CLOUDS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
A LITTLE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. FOG WILL
LIKELY OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BECAUSE OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN EVENT AND LIGHT
WIND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA (FA) FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...HOWEVER
BOTH MODELS SHOW H85 WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUGGESTING
LIMITED MOISTURE. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF. GUIDANCE POPS
RANGE FROM 10 TO 30 PERCENT.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. USED THE WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
FRONTAL MIXING FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS FOR
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH PERIOD. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR
FOG AT AGS/OGB TOWARD MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS FLOODING AND CONDITION OF
AREA DAMS. WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND
BEGUN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH AREA DAMS SLOWLY BECOMING MORE
STABLE. SEVERAL DAMS CONTINUE TO CAUSE CONCERN AND REMAIN CLOSELY
MONITORED WITH SOME HAVING LEVELS DRAWN DOWN.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1009 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.UPDATE...
859 PM CDT
SMALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST WITH JUST
FINE TUNING OF THE POPS WITH A QUICKER ENDING.
A RIBBON OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE TRUE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EXTENDING FROM AN ELONGATED BUT QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED OVER MUCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. PRESSURE
RISES OF 3-4 MB PER 3HR REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...AN INDICATION OF
THE COLD ADVECTION AND MOMENTUM TO THE FRONT. WITHIN THAT REGIME
STRATOCU IS SPREADING SOUTHEAST. AS WINDS TURN TOWARD DUE NORTH IN
THE PRE-DAWN OR DAYBREAK HOURS THAT SHOULD DRAG THAT CLOUD DECK
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY STILL LOOK TO BE 15-18 DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 6-9 FT WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER WAVES ALONG THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES ON
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY THE HIGHEST ALONG THE INDIANA NEARSHORE. AT
THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING EVEN WITH THE
CURRENT HIGHER LAKE LEVELS...AS THESE FORECAST VALUES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LATE SEPTEMBER EVENTS.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL/NWRN
IN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INCREASING SLWY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. AS OF 1PM CDT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO 2
WHILE TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT UN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F FOR THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA. THE BIGGER
QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING
INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND +12C OVER
THE REGION...WHILE THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS ARND 500 J/KG
OF CAPE INVOF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA/NWRN MO.
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INITIALIZATION AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ON
TRACK...SO...HAVE TRENDED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT STEADILY TRACKS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PCPN REACHING THE RFD AREA BTWN 3-
5PM AND THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA ARND 5-6PM WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN OF ARND 1 TO 2
HRS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO...POSSIBLY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLD
SHRA. AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...GIVING THE LIMITED DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AND NO REASON TO SEE WHY THERE WOULD BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT TS WITH THE
SHRA...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SOME TS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING
WILL BE LOCATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN
INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 05-06Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME TRAILING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY DURG THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VEER TO NLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 3 MB/3 HR AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE TRUE COOLER AIR WILL NOT
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL WARMING WILL BE
LESS THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FOR COMPARISON...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORNING LOW
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ARND 30 DEGREES...WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES AT
THE MOST.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
233 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A GOOD WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SATURDAY...AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...AS THIS
SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTS ITSELF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 925 AND 850 MB ARE PROGGED
TO REACH UP AROUND 18-19 DEGREES C AND 15-16 DEGREES C BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
A EVEN A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SHIFT OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY
MONDAY...AND AS IT DOES SO...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE DECENTLY MILD ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE COOLER AIRMASS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN REACH INTO THE 70S...BEFORE CONDITIONS COOL DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...BUT SEASONAL AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WITH COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING...INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY.
* CIGS TRENDING TOWARD MVFR OVERNIGHT...UNCERTAIN HOW LOW.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
BROKEN LINE OF SHRA WITH A FEW POCKETS OF TSRA IS ARRIVING IN THE
TERMINAL AREA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED BUT POORLY TIMED IN THE WINDOW OF PEAK TRAFFIC THIS
EVENING. AFTER THE LINE PASSES...QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW. THE ONLY CONCERNS
WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD MORNING...AND MVFR
CEILINGS.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND SHIFT TO NW.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILING TRENDS...BUT HIGH FOR MVFR.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... VFR. BREEZY SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS TURNING BREEZY NW.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BREEZY NW.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
312 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW.
OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE LAKE LATTER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. WITH THESE STRONG
WINDS...EXPECT WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO INCREASE UP
CLOSE TO 10 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD...COVING
THIS PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES WELL THROUGH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 30 KT APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD BET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...A
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW MOVING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE HUDSON BAY...WILL SHIFT OVER THE LAKE. A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY MONDAY EVENING.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
900 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.UPDATE...
859 PM CDT
SMALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST WITH JUST
FINE TUNING OF THE POPS WITH A QUICKER ENDING.
A RIBBON OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE TRUE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EXTENDING FROM AN ELONGATED BUT QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED OVER MUCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. PRESSURE
RISES OF 3-4 MB PER 3HR REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...AN INDICATION OF
THE COLD ADVECTION AND MOMENTUM TO THE FRONT. WITHIN THAT REGIME
STRATOCU IS SPREADING SOUTHEAST. AS WINDS TURN TOWARD DUE NORTH IN
THE PRE-DAWN OR DAYBREAK HOURS THAT SHOULD DRAG THAT CLOUD DECK
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY STILL LOOK TO BE 15-18 DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 6-9 FT WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER WAVES ALONG THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES ON
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY THE HIGHEST ALONG THE INDIANA NEARSHORE. AT
THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING EVEN WITH THE
CURRENT HIGHER LAKE LEVELS...AS THESE FORECAST VALUES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LATE SEPTEMBER EVENTS.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL/NWRN
IN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INCREASING SLWY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. AS OF 1PM CDT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO 2
WHILE TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT UN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F FOR THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA. THE BIGGER
QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING
INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND +12C OVER
THE REGION...WHILE THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS ARND 500 J/KG
OF CAPE INVOF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA/NWRN MO.
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INITIALIZATION AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ON
TRACK...SO...HAVE TRENDED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT STEADILY TRACKS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PCPN REACHING THE RFD AREA BTWN 3-
5PM AND THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA ARND 5-6PM WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN OF ARND 1 TO 2
HRS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO...POSSIBLY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLD
SHRA. AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...GIVING THE LIMITED DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AND NO REASON TO SEE WHY THERE WOULD BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT TS WITH THE
SHRA...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SOME TS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING
WILL BE LOCATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN
INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 05-06Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME TRAILING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY DURG THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VEER TO NLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 3 MB/3 HR AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE TRUE COOLER AIR WILL NOT
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL WARMING WILL BE
LESS THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FOR COMPARISON...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORNING LOW
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ARND 30 DEGREES...WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES AT
THE MOST.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
233 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A GOOD WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SATURDAY...AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...AS THIS
SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTS ITSELF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 925 AND 850 MB ARE PROGGED
TO REACH UP AROUND 18-19 DEGREES C AND 15-16 DEGREES C BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
A EVEN A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SHIFT OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY
MONDAY...AND AS IT DOES SO...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE DECENTLY MILD ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE COOLER AIRMASS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN REACH INTO THE 70S...BEFORE CONDITIONS COOL DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...BUT SEASONAL AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* BRIEF LINE OF SHRA WITH VCTS THIS EVENING.
* WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
* MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
BROKEN LINE OF SHRA WITH A FEW POCKETS OF TSRA IS ARRIVING IN THE
TERMINAL AREA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED BUT POORLY TIMED IN THE WINDOW OF PEAK TRAFFIC THIS
EVENING. AFTER THE LINE PASSES...QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW. THE ONLY CONCERNS
WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD MORNING...AND MVFR
CEILINGS.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF EVENING SHRA.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILING TRENDS.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... VFR. BREEZY SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS TURNING BREEZY NW.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BREEZY NW.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
312 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW.
OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE LAKE LATTER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. WITH THESE STRONG
WINDS...EXPECT WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO INCREASE UP
CLOSE TO 10 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD...COVING
THIS PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES WELL THROUGH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 30 KT APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD BET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...A
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW MOVING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE HUDSON BAY...WILL SHIFT OVER THE LAKE. A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY MONDAY EVENING.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
655 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL/NWRN
IN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INCREASING SLWY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. AS OF 1PM CDT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO 2
WHILE TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT UN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F FOR THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA. THE BIGGER
QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING
INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND +12C OVER
THE REGION...WHILE THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS ARND 500 J/KG
OF CAPE INVOF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA/NWRN MO.
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INITIALIZATION AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ON
TRACK...SO...HAVE TRENDED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT STEADILY TRACKS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PCPN REACHING THE RFD AREA BTWN 3-
5PM AND THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA ARND 5-6PM WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN OF ARND 1 TO 2
HRS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO...POSSIBLY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLD
SHRA. AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...GIVING THE LIMITED DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AND NO REASON TO SEE WHY THERE WOULD BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT TS WITH THE
SHRA...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SOME TS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING
WILL BE LOCATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN
INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 05-06Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME TRAILING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY DURG THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VEER TO NLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 3 MB/3 HR AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE TRUE COOLER AIR WILL NOT
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL WARMING WILL BE
LESS THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FOR COMPARISON...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORNING LOW
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ARND 30 DEGREES...WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES AT
THE MOST.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
233 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A GOOD WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SATURDAY...AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...AS THIS
SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTS ITSELF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 925 AND 850 MB ARE PROGGED
TO REACH UP AROUND 18-19 DEGREES C AND 15-16 DEGREES C BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
A EVEN A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SHIFT OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY
MONDAY...AND AS IT DOES SO...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE DECENTLY MILD ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE COOLER AIRMASS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN REACH INTO THE 70S...BEFORE CONDITIONS COOL DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...BUT SEASONAL AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* BRIEF LINE OF SHRA WITH VCTS THIS EVENING.
* WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
* MVFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
BROKEN LINE OF SHRA WITH A FEW POCKETS OF TSRA IS ARRIVING IN THE
TERMINAL AREA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED BUT POORLY TIMED IN THE WINDOW OF PEAK TRAFFIC THIS
EVENING. AFTER THE LINE PASSES...QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW. THE ONLY CONCERNS
WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD MORNING...AND MVFR
CEILINGS.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF EVENING SHRA.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILING TRENDS.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... VFR. BREEZY SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS TURNING BREEZY NW.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BREEZY NW.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
312 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW.
OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE LAKE LATTER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. WITH THESE STRONG
WINDS...EXPECT WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO INCREASE UP
CLOSE TO 10 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD...COVING
THIS PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES WELL THROUGH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 30 KT APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD BET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...A
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW MOVING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE HUDSON BAY...WILL SHIFT OVER THE LAKE. A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY MONDAY EVENING.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...5 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1229 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
Visible satellite imagery at 9 am shows what`s left of the low
clouds and dense fog across Coles, Edgar and southern Vermilion
Counties. This will continue to shrink over the next hour, and
since the remainder of east central Illinois saw the fog lift an
hour or so ago, the advisory was allowed to expire. Otherwise,
little change was needed to the forecast, with partly cloudy skies
and most areas reaching the upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
As has been the case over the past couple of nights...fog is once
again developing across portions of central Illinois early this
morning. 08z/3am surface obs show widespread dense fog across
northeast Illinois into northwest Indiana. With surface ridge axis
still in place across the region...low-level flow is generally from
the N/NW as evidenced by area 925mb VAD wind profilers. Given this
trajectory...the current area of fog will likely advect/develop
slowly southward across mainly the eastern half of the KILX CWA over
the next few hours. HRRR has been consistently showing this signal
as well...so confidence is high that dense fog will develop across
the E. Based on HRRR forecast and latest obs...have decided to
issue a Dense Fog Advisory through 14z for all locations
along/northeast of a Bloomington...to Decatur...to Marshall line.
Mid-level cloudiness pushing slowly in from the W/NW should prevent
areas further west from seeing quite as much fog...so have only gone
with patchy fog in the forecast along/west of I-55. The fog will
gradually dissipate by mid-morning...with skies becoming partly to
mostly sunny during the afternoon. Resulting high temperatures will
be similar to yesterday in the middle to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
00z Oct 7 models have slowed the approach of the next cold front by
about 6 hours...with the boundary now remaining well W/NW of the
area through the day Thursday. As a result...have removed PoPs
across the NW CWA during the morning and have limited chance PoPs to
locations along/northwest of I-55 in the afternoon. With partly
sunny skies and strong/gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the
front...afternoon highs will soar into the lower 80s across the
board. Better rain chances will arrive Thursday night...as boundary
interacts with an increasingly moist low-level airmass characterized
by surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Due to the
slower arrival of the front after dark...daytime instability will be
waning with MUCAPES of less than 500J/kg. Despite weaker
instability than previously forecast...think increasing shear and
strong convergence along the boundary will be enough to trigger
scattered thunderstorms. Have carried likely PoPs with FROPA
Thursday night. Have also lingered rain chances a bit longer into
Friday morning...especially along/south of I-70. Front is progged
to drop into the Ohio River Valley by Friday afternoon...ending the
rain chances and introducing much cooler weather with highs
remaining in the middle to upper 60s.
After a chilly Friday night with lows in the middle 40s and a
seasonable day on Saturday with afternoon highs in the 60s...another
warming trend will get underway early next week. Rising upper
heights across the central CONUS will help temps rebound well into
the 70s by Sunday. Models are not in particularly good agreement
with the timing of the next weak cold front...with the latest GFS
speeding it up by about 12 hours and now bringing it through central
Illinois on Monday. Regardless of the timing...little to no low-
level moisture will be available...so will continue with a dry
forecast through the remainder of the extended. Have however cooled
highs on Monday from the lower 80s back into the middle to upper 70s
due to the faster arrival of the front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
VFR conditions expected through much of the next 24 hours. As
high pressure axis shifts eastward, the light and persistent
north/northeast flow will become more south-southwest after 06Z
and increase to near 10 knots by Thursday morning. Currently
thinking that any fog that forms would mainly be south of KCMI,
and have only kept the TEMPO MVFR group at that site.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
925 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
Visible satellite imagery at 9 am shows what`s left of the low
clouds and dense fog across Coles, Edgar and southern Vermilion
Counties. This will continue to shrink over the next hour, and
since the remainder of east central Illinois saw the fog lift an
hour or so ago, the advisory was allowed to expire. Otherwise,
little change was needed to the forecast, with partly cloudy skies
and most areas reaching the upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
As has been the case over the past couple of nights...fog is once
again developing across portions of central Illinois early this
morning. 08z/3am surface obs show widespread dense fog across
northeast Illinois into northwest Indiana. With surface ridge axis
still in place across the region...low-level flow is generally from
the N/NW as evidenced by area 925mb VAD wind profilers. Given this
trajectory...the current area of fog will likely advect/develop
slowly southward across mainly the eastern half of the KILX CWA over
the next few hours. HRRR has been consistently showing this signal
as well...so confidence is high that dense fog will develop across
the E. Based on HRRR forecast and latest obs...have decided to
issue a Dense Fog Advisory through 14z for all locations
along/northeast of a Bloomington...to Decatur...to Marshall line.
Mid-level cloudiness pushing slowly in from the W/NW should prevent
areas further west from seeing quite as much fog...so have only gone
with patchy fog in the forecast along/west of I-55. The fog will
gradually dissipate by mid-morning...with skies becoming partly to
mostly sunny during the afternoon. Resulting high temperatures will
be similar to yesterday in the middle to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
00z Oct 7 models have slowed the approach of the next cold front by
about 6 hours...with the boundary now remaining well W/NW of the
area through the day Thursday. As a result...have removed PoPs
across the NW CWA during the morning and have limited chance PoPs to
locations along/northwest of I-55 in the afternoon. With partly
sunny skies and strong/gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the
front...afternoon highs will soar into the lower 80s across the
board. Better rain chances will arrive Thursday night...as boundary
interacts with an increasingly moist low-level airmass characterized
by surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Due to the
slower arrival of the front after dark...daytime instability will be
waning with MUCAPES of less than 500J/kg. Despite weaker
instability than previously forecast...think increasing shear and
strong convergence along the boundary will be enough to trigger
scattered thunderstorms. Have carried likely PoPs with FROPA
Thursday night. Have also lingered rain chances a bit longer into
Friday morning...especially along/south of I-70. Front is progged
to drop into the Ohio River Valley by Friday afternoon...ending the
rain chances and introducing much cooler weather with highs
remaining in the middle to upper 60s.
After a chilly Friday night with lows in the middle 40s and a
seasonable day on Saturday with afternoon highs in the 60s...another
warming trend will get underway early next week. Rising upper
heights across the central CONUS will help temps rebound well into
the 70s by Sunday. Models are not in particularly good agreement
with the timing of the next weak cold front...with the latest GFS
speeding it up by about 12 hours and now bringing it through central
Illinois on Monday. Regardless of the timing...little to no low-
level moisture will be available...so will continue with a dry
forecast through the remainder of the extended. Have however cooled
highs on Monday from the lower 80s back into the middle to upper 70s
due to the faster arrival of the front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
Widely variable weather conditions, LIFR to VFR, exist across the
central Illinois terminal area. The thicker fog/stratus is more
patchy than it was the past couple of nights. As such, it should
burn off more quickly this morning, with all TAF sites improving
to VFR within the next few hours. Increasing high clouds and winds
by later tonight should help minimize the threat of a heavy
fog/stratus event again overnight. Still, have included a tempo
for fog late tonight which is probably prudent until there is a
wholesale airmass change behind Thursday night`s cold front.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
650 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
As has been the case over the past couple of nights...fog is once
again developing across portions of central Illinois early this
morning. 08z/3am surface obs show widespread dense fog across
northeast Illinois into northwest Indiana. With surface ridge axis
still in place across the region...low-level flow is generally from
the N/NW as evidenced by area 925mb VAD wind profilers. Given this
trajectory...the current area of fog will likely advect/develop
slowly southward across mainly the eastern half of the KILX CWA over
the next few hours. HRRR has been consistently showing this signal
as well...so confidence is high that dense fog will develop across
the E. Based on HRRR forecast and latest obs...have decided to
issue a Dense Fog Advisory through 14z for all locations
along/northeast of a Bloomington...to Decatur...to Marshall line.
Mid-level cloudiness pushing slowly in from the W/NW should prevent
areas further west from seeing quite as much fog...so have only gone
with patchy fog in the forecast along/west of I-55. The fog will
gradually dissipate by mid-morning...with skies becoming partly to
mostly sunny during the afternoon. Resulting high temperatures will
be similar to yesterday in the middle to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
00z Oct 7 models have slowed the approach of the next cold front by
about 6 hours...with the boundary now remaining well W/NW of the
area through the day Thursday. As a result...have removed PoPs
across the NW CWA during the morning and have limited chance PoPs to
locations along/northwest of I-55 in the afternoon. With partly
sunny skies and strong/gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the
front...afternoon highs will soar into the lower 80s across the
board. Better rain chances will arrive Thursday night...as boundary
interacts with an increasingly moist low-level airmass characterized
by surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Due to the
slower arrival of the front after dark...daytime instability will be
waning with MUCAPES of less than 500J/kg. Despite weaker
instability than previously forecast...think increasing shear and
strong convergence along the boundary will be enough to trigger
scattered thunderstorms. Have carried likely PoPs with FROPA
Thursday night. Have also lingered rain chances a bit longer into
Friday morning...especially along/south of I-70. Front is progged
to drop into the Ohio River Valley by Friday afternoon...ending the
rain chances and introducing much cooler weather with highs
remaining in the middle to upper 60s.
After a chilly Friday night with lows in the middle 40s and a
seasonable day on Saturday with afternoon highs in the 60s...another
warming trend will get underway early next week. Rising upper
heights across the central CONUS will help temps rebound well into
the 70s by Sunday. Models are not in particularly good agreement
with the timing of the next weak cold front...with the latest GFS
speeding it up by about 12 hours and now bringing it through central
Illinois on Monday. Regardless of the timing...little to no low-
level moisture will be available...so will continue with a dry
forecast through the remainder of the extended. Have however cooled
highs on Monday from the lower 80s back into the middle to upper 70s
due to the faster arrival of the front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
Widely variable weather conditions, LIFR to VFR, exist across the
central Illinois terminal area. The thicker fog/stratus is more
patchy than it was the past couple of nights. As such, it should
burn off more quickly this morning, with all TAF sites improving
to VFR within the next few hours. Increasing high clouds and winds
by later tonight should help minimize the threat of a heavy
fog/stratus event again overnight. Still, have included a tempo
for fog late tonight which is probably prudent until there is a
wholesale airmass change behind Thursday night`s cold front.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ038-
043>046-053>057-062-063.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
314 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
As has been the case over the past couple of nights...fog is once
again developing across portions of central Illinois early this
morning. 08z/3am surface obs show widespread dense fog across
northeast Illinois into northwest Indiana. With surface ridge axis
still in place across the region...low-level flow is generally from
the N/NW as evidenced by area 925mb VAD wind profilers. Given this
trajectory...the current area of fog will likely advect/develop
slowly southward across mainly the eastern half of the KILX CWA over
the next few hours. HRRR has been consistently showing this signal
as well...so confidence is high that dense fog will develop across
the E. Based on HRRR forecast and latest obs...have decided to
issue a Dense Fog Advisory through 14z for all locations
along/northeast of a Bloomington...to Decatur...to Marshall line.
Mid-level cloudiness pushing slowly in from the W/NW should prevent
areas further west from seeing quite as much fog...so have only gone
with patchy fog in the forecast along/west of I-55. The fog will
gradually dissipate by mid-morning...with skies becoming partly to
mostly sunny during the afternoon. Resulting high temperatures will
be similar to yesterday in the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
00z Oct 7 models have slowed the approach of the next cold front by
about 6 hours...with the boundary now remaining well W/NW of the
area through the day Thursday. As a result...have removed PoPs
across the NW CWA during the morning and have limited chance PoPs to
locations along/northwest of I-55 in the afternoon. With partly
sunny skies and strong/gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the
front...afternoon highs will soar into the lower 80s across the
board. Better rain chances will arrive Thursday night...as boundary
interacts with an increasingly moist low-level airmass characterized
by surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Due to the
slower arrival of the front after dark...daytime instability will be
waning with MUCAPES of less than 500J/kg. Despite weaker
instability than previously forecast...think increasing shear and
strong convergence along the boundary will be enough to trigger
scattered thunderstorms. Have carried likely PoPs with FROPA
Thursday night. Have also lingered rain chances a bit longer into
Friday morning...especially along/south of I-70. Front is progged
to drop into the Ohio River Valley by Friday afternoon...ending the
rain chances and introducing much cooler weather with highs
remaining in the middle to upper 60s.
After a chilly Friday night with lows in the middle 40s and a
seasonable day on Saturday with afternoon highs in the 60s...another
warming trend will get underway early next week. Rising upper
heights across the central CONUS will help temps rebound well into
the 70s by Sunday. Models are not in particularly good agreement
with the timing of the next weak cold front...with the latest GFS
speeding it up by about 12 hours and now bringing it through central
Illinois on Monday. Regardless of the timing...little to no low-
level moisture will be available...so will continue with a dry
forecast through the remainder of the extended. Have however cooled
highs on Monday from the lower 80s back into the middle to upper 70s
due to the faster arrival of the front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
High pressure settling over Illinois tonight has allowed winds to
taper off. Mid-level clouds to the northwest are advecting into
the state as well and are limiting some of the potential for
radiative cooling. latest short-range models, the 03z RAP and 03z
HRRR in particular, still suggest fog development along and east
of U.S. Highway 51. Though the development isn`t as far west as
the past two nights there is more consistency between the models.
Will bring KCMI down to LIFR conditions for a brief time around
sunrise. Vsbys are a bit more questionable at KBMI and KDEC but a
few hours of IFR still seems a good bet. As the clouds develop
southeast, mesoscale models suggest some improvement at KBMI by
11z and KDEC by 12z.
Dew Point spreads are currently higher at KPIA and KSPI as they
have been more influenced by incoming mid-level cloudiness.
Surface high should remain over the state on Wednesday keeping
winds light through the TAF valid period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ038-
043>046-053>057-062-063.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Current package remains on-track.
Still some question as to intensity and coverage of fog late
tonight and early Wednesday. Though moist northeast flow has
diminished as a surface ridge has pushed into Illinois, plenty of
residual moisture remains in the boundary layer. For now will keep
current wording of areas of fog, but will have to monitor trends
closely. latest RAP (23z) is more agressive with fog development
than runs from earlier today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Low cloud deck has faded over most of the forecast area early this
afternoon, but some stratocumulus lingers especially in west central
Illinois. Main concern is that this will return once again tonight.
The atmosphere has not changed much, as the high pressure axis to
our west only slowly edges eastward. The RAP model, which locked
into the idea of this morning`s low clouds and fog about 24 hours in
advance, shows another expanse of stratus/fog advecting in from the
northeast after about 2 am. Wild card will be with some altocumulus
clouds currently over Wisconsin/Minnesota dropping southeast, which
could slow the redevelopment of the low clouds. Right now, will
focus more on the areas east of I-55 and north of I-70 as more
likely to see some fog late night, although some fog along the
Wabash River in southeast Illinois is a possibility as well.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Areas of fog from I-55 east and locally dense in spots to lift
during mid morning similar to past 2 mornings. Low clouds to also
break up by late morning with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny
by Wed afternoon with weak surface high pressure ridge of 1018 mb
near IL Wed and Wed night. Warm highs Wed in the upper 70s to near
80F. Lows Wed night in the mid to upper 50s. Could be some patchy
fog in southeast IL later Wed night where surface winds lighter.
Another warm day expected Thu with breezy ssw winds by midday Thu
giving highs in the lower 80s. MAV guidance even going mid 80s in
western CWA from Decatur west but did not go this warm since there
will be increasing cloud cover ahead of approaching cold front along
with chances of showers and thunderstorms NW half of CWA Thu
afternoon, with best chances over the IL river valley. SPC has
marginal risk (5%) of severe storms for hail late Thu afternoon and
early Thu evening over IL river valley. MLCapes peak near 1000 j/kg
late Thu afternoon nw IL and 0-6 km Bulk shear from 35-45 kts. 12Z
models similar in sweeping cold front se acorss central IL during
Thu night with likely chances of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Cold front exits southeast IL early Fri morning with lingering
chances of showers on Friday especially in the morning.
Dry conditions return to central and southeast IL Friday night
through next Tuesday as high pressure from the Pacific NW settles
into IL Saturday and then into the Southeast U.S. early next week.
Temps cool back to near or a bit below normal Friday/Saturday and
then warm back above normal early next week with highs in the mid
70s to lower 80s Sun-Tue. WNW upper level flow takes shape during
1st half of next week which would favor fair and mild conditions,
and favorable for fall harvest. CPC`s day 6-10 day outlook Oct 12-16
has IL in above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
High pressure settling over Illinois tonight has allowed winds to
taper off. Mid-level clouds to the northwest are advecting into
the state as well and are limiting some of the potential for
radiative cooling. latest short-range models, the 03z RAP and 03z
HRRR in particular, still suggest fog development along and east
of U.S. Highway 51. Though the development isn`t as far west as
the past two nights there is more consistency between the models.
Will bring KCMI down to LIFR conditions for a brief time around
sunrise. Vsbys are a bit more questionable at KBMI and KDEC but a
few hours of IFR still seems a good bet. As the clouds develop
southeast, mesoscale models suggest some improvement at KBMI by
11z and KDEC by 12z.
Dew Point spreads are currently higher at KPIA and KSPI as they
have been more influenced by incoming mid-level cloudiness.
Surface high should remain over the state on Wednesday keeping
winds light through the TAF valid period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
ALTHOUGH FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MANY SITES STILL REPORTING A QUARTER MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY ACROSS
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND THUS EXTENDED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON. INCREASED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON YESTERDAY HIGHS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER
THERE THIS MORNING ALLOWING WARMING TO GET STARTED RIGHT AWAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OF CONCERN TODAY IS MORNING FOG.
VISIBILITIES HAVE AGAIN BEGUN TO PLUMMET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING WELL BELOW A MILE
AT THIS TIME. BASED ON HOW THE LAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE
EVOLVED...AND HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN
PERSISTENCE...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND
SOUTH...AND IT MAY ONLY OCCUR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND THE
DAYBREAK TIME FRAME...BUT FOR MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA DENSE FOG
WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS. DID BUMP THINGS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
FOG WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON MORNING HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ADD A BIT MORE
DETAIL TO GRIDS...BUT GENERAL IDEA OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE
SAME...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MIDDAY ONWARD.
WHILE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...MODEL K INDICES AND
SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
NONZERO THREAT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE...WITH MINOR TWEAKS
UPWARD THURSDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STUCK
NEAR SURFACE WETBULB PROGS FOR MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD RESULTING IN A PREDOMINANTLY QUIET EXTENDED.
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESIDE IN A RELATIVELY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U S. COLD
POOL IN WAKE OF THE FRIDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALREADY BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH WARMER AIR RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
BUMPED TEMPS UP ABOVE SUPERBLEND BOTH DAYS WITH SOLID WARM
ADVECTION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 IN SOME AREAS MONDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND LIMITED TO
A THIN AXIS DIRECTLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ECMWF REMAINS MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN TRYING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED PRECIP AS THE UPPER WAVE
CATCHES UP TO THE BOUNDARY. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR THE
TIME BEING UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS CAN BE ACHIEVED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REESTABLISH FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. AFTER
A COOLER DAY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS WILL RETURN INTO
THE 70S WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ONCE AGAIN REVERTS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 071800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FOG AND STRATUS FROM
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED...WITH JUST SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LEANING TOWARDS PERSISTENCE TONIGHT AS LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT FOG FORMATION
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT AS STOUT WITH A SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPING...SO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE AS THICK
OR WIDESPREAD THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE IMPACTS AT THE
TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-LIFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS. EXPECT A QUICKER BURNOFF TO FOG
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
120 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
ALTHOUGH FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MANY SITES STILL REPORTING A QUARTER MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY ACROSS
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND THUS EXTENDED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON. INCREASED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON YESTERDAY HIGHS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER
THERE THIS MORNING ALLOWING WARMING TO GET STARTED RIGHT AWAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OF CONCERN TODAY IS MORNING FOG.
VISIBILITIES HAVE AGAIN BEGUN TO PLUMMET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING WELL BELOW A MILE
AT THIS TIME. BASED ON HOW THE LAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE
EVOLVED...AND HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN
PERSISTENCE...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND
SOUTH...AND IT MAY ONLY OCCUR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND THE
DAYBREAK TIME FRAME...BUT FOR MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA DENSE FOG
WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS. DID BUMP THINGS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
FOG WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON MORNING HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ADD A BIT MORE
DETAIL TO GRIDS...BUT GENERAL IDEA OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE
SAME...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MIDDAY ONWARD.
WHILE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...MODEL K INDICES AND
SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
NONZERO THREAT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE...WITH MINOR TWEAKS
UPWARD THURSDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STUCK
NEAR SURFACE WETBULB PROGS FOR MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
A SOMEWHAT FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE
OF FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BY DAY 7. THE 00Z EURO INDICATES PRECIP IS POSSIBLE SOME
AREAS LATE MONDAY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL INDICATE A BIT MORE
CLOUDS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL SATURDAY...WARMING SOME SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND TURNING A LITTLE COOLER AFTER THE 2ND COLD FRONT BY DAY 7.
MODEL INITIALIZATION SEEMS REASONABLE ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS...
BUT TWEAKED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY DAY 7 BASED ON THE NEW GFS AND EURO.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 071800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FOG AND STRATUS FROM
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED...WITH JUST SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LEANING TOWARDS PERSISTENCE TONIGHT AS LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT FOG FORMATION
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT AS STOUT WITH A SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPING...SO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE AS THICK
OR WIDESPREAD THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE IMPACTS AT THE
TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-LIFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS. EXPECT A QUICKER BURNOFF TO FOG
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
109 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TONIGHT WILL BEGIN
MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE THURSDAY MORNING BUT PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND PARTS
OF NORTHWEST OHIO.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
DENSE FOG THAT HAD FORMED AROUND SUNRISE IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY BURN OFF WITH INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND WARMING.
VISIBILITIES AT SEVERAL REPORTING SITES COMING UP TO BETWEEN ONE
HALF AND TWO MILES AT 930AM. STILL A FEW SITES AROUND ONE QUARTER
MILE OR LESS...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTH AGAINST IND CWA. PLANNING
ON ALLOWING ADVISORY TO EXPIRE MOST AREAS BUT AFTER COLLABORATION
WILL EXTEND ADVISORY IN FAR SOUTH FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.
SATELLITE SHOWS RATHER DENSE OVC IN THIS AREA SO MAY TAKE AN HOUR
OR TWO TO SEE VIS IMPROVE THERE. WILL COVER REMAINING LOCAL AREAS
WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
FOR THE SHORT TERM. A RATHER COMPLICATED SATELLITE PICTURE AT
PRESS TIME WITH STRATUS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN CLEAR
SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO. PAIR OF WEAK AND HIGHLY SHEARED SHORTWAVES
WILL DRIVE THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. FIRST ONE...WHICH
ACTUALLY SHOWS UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA AND THE SUBTLE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH STRATUS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME FOG ALREADY SEEN UNDER STRATUS AND ANY
AREAS THAT MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD SEE
SOME DENSER FOG DEVELOP AS WELL. MEANWHILE...700MB MOISTURE PLUME
NOTED JUST UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS.
TOUGH TO GAUGE WHAT THE IMPACT WILL BE TO SITES THAT ARE ALREADY
SOCKED IN WITH FOG. A FEW OBS SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE. HRRR INDICATES FOG WILL
CONTINUE AND EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING. DENSE FOG IS NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE FOR AN ADVISORY BUT ENOUGH
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL EVIDENCE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
THIS MORNING AND HAVE JOINED OUR NEIGHBORS IN HOISTING AN
ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT VISIBILITIES ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE
AND SOME LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES MAY NOT EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG. BASED ON LATEST HI-
RES/RAPID UPDATE SOUNDINGS...SUSPECT DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF
RELATIVELY QUICKLY (AROUND 14Z)...THOUGH AN HOUR OR TWO EXTENSION
MAY BE NECESSARY IN A FEW AREAS. AFTERWARD...TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS SECONDARY WIND SHIFT/CAA PUSHES THROUGH AND
HAVE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS
AROUND 50F WITH A LOW CHANCE OF FOG GIVEN INCREASED LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND DRIER PROFILES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
NRN STREAM SW TROUGH OVR SE BC THIS MORNING PRIMARY WX
FTR OF NOTE THIS PD AS IT TRANSLATES ESE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES BY THU
NIGHT. OVERALL POOR RTN MSTR ADVTN AHD OF THIS SYS AND NWD TRACK OF
PRIMARY WAVE AND ASSOCD/HGT FALLS POINT TO BTR PRECIP
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WELL NORTH ACRS LWR MI W/CHCS TAILING OFF W/SWD
EXTENT. PRIMARY CHG EARLY ON IS TO TRUNCATE MENTIONABLE POP WINDOW
GIVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SEWD PROGRESSION OF CDFNT.
OTRWS BROAD ANTICYCLONE BLDS SEWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF
THIS SYS W/SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT FOLLOWED BY QUICK
MODERATION AS NXT IN SERIES OF NRN STREAM WAVES AMPLIFIES EWD ACRS
SRN CANADA ERLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD AS DENSE FOG HAS
DISSIPATED AND SKIES WERE CLEARING. FOG FORMATION TONIGHT
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS PREVIOUS
NIGHTS DUE TO SEVERAL REASONS INCLUDING INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND STRONGER WINDS IN THE 1000-950MB LAYER AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. COULD STILL SEE SOME DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS PRIOR TO MID
CLOUD ARRIVAL CLOSER TO KFWA AND THIS COMPLICATES MATTERS WITH
WHETHER ANY FOG CAN FORM. WITH EXPECTATION OF IT BEING BRIEF AND
MORE PATCHY IF IT INDEED DEVELOPS HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN
THIS TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1035 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
ALTHOUGH FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MANY SITES STILL REPORTING A QUARTER MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY ACROSS
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND THUS EXTENDED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON. INCREASED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON YESTERDAY HIGHS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER
THERE THIS MORNING ALLOWING WARMING TO GET STARTED RIGHT AWAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OF CONCERN TODAY IS MORNING FOG.
VISIBILITIES HAVE AGAIN BEGUN TO PLUMMET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING WELL BELOW A MILE
AT THIS TIME. BASED ON HOW THE LAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE
EVOLVED...AND HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN
PERSISTENCE...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND
SOUTH...AND IT MAY ONLY OCCUR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND THE
DAYBREAK TIME FRAME...BUT FOR MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA DENSE FOG
WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS. DID BUMP THINGS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
FOG WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON MORNING HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ADD A BIT MORE
DETAIL TO GRIDS...BUT GENERAL IDEA OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE
SAME...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MIDDAY ONWARD.
WHILE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...MODEL K INDICES AND
SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
NONZERO THREAT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE...WITH MINOR TWEAKS
UPWARD THURSDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STUCK
NEAR SURFACE WETBULB PROGS FOR MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
A SOMEWHAT FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE
OF FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BY DAY 7. THE 00Z EURO INDICATES PRECIP IS POSSIBLE SOME
AREAS LATE MONDAY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL INDICATE A BIT MORE
CLOUDS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL SATURDAY...WARMING SOME SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND TURNING A LITTLE COOLER AFTER THE 2ND COLD FRONT BY DAY 7.
MODEL INITIALIZATION SEEMS REASONABLE ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS...
BUT TWEAKED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY DAY 7 BASED ON THE NEW GFS AND EURO.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 071500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AS
OF 14Z. ONLY CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO EXTEND THE
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 16Z AT MOST TERMINALS...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER.
12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OUR TWO BEFORE BREAKING UP BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT...IT WILL BE VFR FROM MIDDAY TODAY TO ABOUT
06Z-08Z TONIGHT.
AFTER MIDDAY MODELS INDICATE ONLY SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH FOG BEING SO PERSISTENT LAST FEW MORNING...WILL FORECAST A RETURN AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z-08Z. BUT MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AND WILL KEEP
VISIBILITIES NO LOWER THAN 2 TO 3 MILES LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TODAY AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
ALTHOUGH FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MANY SITES STILL REPORTING A QUARTER MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY ACROSS
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND THUS EXTENDED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON. INCREASED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON YESTERDAY HIGHS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER
THERE THIS MORNING ALLOWING WARMING TO GET STARTED RIGHT AWAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OF CONCERN TODAY IS MORNING FOG.
VISIBILITIES HAVE AGAIN BEGUN TO PLUMMET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING WELL BELOW A MILE
AT THIS TIME. BASED ON HOW THE LAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE
EVOLVED...AND HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN
PERSISTENCE...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND
SOUTH...AND IT MAY ONLY OCCUR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND THE
DAYBREAK TIME FRAME...BUT FOR MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA DENSE FOG
WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS. DID BUMP THINGS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
FOG WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON MORNING HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ADD A BIT MORE
DETAIL TO GRIDS...BUT GENERAL IDEA OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE
SAME...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MIDDAY ONWARD.
WHILE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...MODEL K INDICES AND
SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
NONZERO THREAT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE...WITH MINOR TWEAKS
UPWARD THURSDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STUCK
NEAR SURFACE WETBULB PROGS FOR MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
A SOMEWHAT FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE
OF FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BY DAY 7. THE 00Z EURO INDICATES PRECIP IS POSSIBLE SOME
AREAS LATE MONDAY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL INDICATE A BIT MORE
CLOUDS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL SATURDAY...WARMING SOME SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND TURNING A LITTLE COOLER AFTER THE 2ND COLD FRONT BY DAY 7.
MODEL INITIALIZATION SEEMS REASONABLE ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS...
BUT TWEAKED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY DAY 7 BASED ON THE NEW GFS AND EURO.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 071200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OUR TWO BEFORE BREAKING UP BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT...IT WILL BE VFR FROM MIDDAY TODAY TO ABOUT
06Z-08Z TONIGHT.
AFTER MIDDAY MODELS INDICATE ONLY SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH FOG BEING SO PERSISTENT LAST FEW MORNING...WILL FORECAST A RETURN AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z-08Z. BUT MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AND WILL KEEP
VISIBILITIES NO LOWER THAN 2 TO 3 MILES LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TODAY AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
953 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
70S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY WITH COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
DENSE FOG THAT HAD FORMED AROUND SUNRISE IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY BURN OFF WITH INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND WARMING.
VISIBILITIES AT SEVERAL REPORTING SITES COMING UP TO BETWEEN ONE
HALF AND TWO MILES AT 930AM. STILL A FEW SITES AROUND ONE QUARTER
MILE OR LESS...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTH AGAINST IND CWA. PLANNING
ON ALLOWING ADVISORY TO EXPIRE MOST AREAS BUT AFTER COLLABORATION
WILL EXTEND ADVISORY IN FAR SOUTH FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.
SATELLITE SHOWS RATHER DENSE OVC IN THIS AREA SO MAY TAKE AN HOUR
OR TWO TO SEE VIS IMPROVE THERE. WILL COVER REMAINING LOCAL AREAS
WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
FOR THE SHORT TERM. A RATHER COMPLICATED SATELLITE PICTURE AT
PRESS TIME WITH STRATUS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN CLEAR
SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO. PAIR OF WEAK AND HIGHLY SHEARED SHORTWAVES
WILL DRIVE THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. FIRST ONE...WHICH
ACTUALLY SHOWS UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA AND THE SUBTLE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH STRATUS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME FOG ALREADY SEEN UNDER STRATUS AND ANY
AREAS THAT MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD SEE
SOME DENSER FOG DEVELOP AS WELL. MEANWHILE...700MB MOISTURE PLUME
NOTED JUST UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS.
TOUGH TO GAUGE WHAT THE IMPACT WILL BE TO SITES THAT ARE ALREADY
SOCKED IN WITH FOG. A FEW OBS SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE. HRRR INDICATES FOG WILL
CONTINUE AND EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING. DENSE FOG IS NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE FOR AN ADVISORY BUT ENOUGH
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL EVIDENCE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
THIS MORNING AND HAVE JOINED OUR NEIGHBORS IN HOISTING AN
ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT VISIBILITIES ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE
AND SOME LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES MAY NOT EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG. BASED ON LATEST HI-
RES/RAPID UPDATE SOUNDINGS...SUSPECT DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF
RELATIVELY QUICKLY (AROUND 14Z)...THOUGH AN HOUR OR TWO EXTENSION
MAY BE NECESSARY IN A FEW AREAS. AFTERWARD...TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS SECONDARY WIND SHIFT/CAA PUSHES THROUGH AND
HAVE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS
AROUND 50F WITH A LOW CHANCE OF FOG GIVEN INCREASED LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND DRIER PROFILES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
NRN STREAM SW TROUGH OVR SE BC THIS MORNING PRIMARY WX
FTR OF NOTE THIS PD AS IT TRANSLATES ESE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES BY THU
NIGHT. OVERALL POOR RTN MSTR ADVTN AHD OF THIS SYS AND NWD TRACK OF
PRIMARY WAVE AND ASSOCD/HGT FALLS POINT TO BTR PRECIP
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WELL NORTH ACRS LWR MI W/CHCS TAILING OFF W/SWD
EXTENT. PRIMARY CHG EARLY ON IS TO TRUNCATE MENTIONABLE POP WINDOW
GIVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SEWD PROGRESSION OF CDFNT.
OTRWS BROAD ANTICYCLONE BLDS SEWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF
THIS SYS W/SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT FOLLOWED BY QUICK
MODERATION AS NXT IN SERIES OF NRN STREAM WAVES AMPLIFIES EWD ACRS
SRN CANADA ERLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS DISRUPTING FOG THIS MORNING AND EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AT KFWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW STRATUS MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO SCATTER BUT STILL EXPECT VFR AROUND 14Z. SOME
BRIEF BR POSSIBLE AT KSBN BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
653 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
ALTHOUGH FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OF CONCERN TODAY IS MORNING FOG.
VISIBILITIES HAVE AGAIN BEGUN TO PLUMMET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING WELL BELOW A MILE
AT THIS TIME. BASED ON HOW THE LAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE
EVOLVED...AND HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN
PERSISTENCE...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND
SOUTH...AND IT MAY ONLY OCCUR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND THE
DAYBREAK TIME FRAME...BUT FOR MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA DENSE FOG
WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS. DID BUMP THINGS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
FOG WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON MORNING HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ADD A BIT MORE
DETAIL TO GRIDS...BUT GENERAL IDEA OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE
SAME...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MIDDAY ONWARD.
WHILE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...MODEL K INDICES AND
SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
NONZERO THREAT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE...WITH MINOR TWEAKS
UPWARD THURSDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STUCK
NEAR SURFACE WETBULB PROGS FOR MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
A SOMEWHAT FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE
OF FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND THEN HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN BY DAY 7. THE 00Z EURO INDICATES RECIP IS POSSIBLE
SOME AREAS LATE MONDAY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL INDICATE A BIT MORE CLOUDS
ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL SATURDAY...WARMING SOME SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND TURNING A LITTLE COOLER AFTER THE 2ND COLD FRONT BY DAY 7.
MODEL INITIALIZATION SEEMS REASONABLE ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS...
BUT TWEAKED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY DAY 7 BASED ON THE NEW GFS AND EURO.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 071200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OUR TWO BEFORE BREAKING UP BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT...IT WILL BE VFR FROM MIDDAY TODAY TO ABOUT
06Z-08Z TONIGHT.
AFTER MIDDAY MODELS INDICATE ONLY SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH FOG BEING SO PERSISTENT LAST FEW MORNING...WILL FORECAST A RETURN AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z-08Z. BUT MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AND WILL KEEP
VISIBILITIES NO LOWER THAN 2 TO 3 MILES LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TODAY AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
602 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
70S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY WITH COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS BRINGING A SHARP JUMP IN TEMPS THIS MORNING AND
DISRUPTING FOG ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST SATELLITE
SHOWS A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS JUST WEST OF OUR CWA. LIKELY
TOO LITTLE TOO LATE FOR WIDESPREAD RESURGENCE OF FOG BEFORE
SUNRISE BUT LATEST KVPZ OB HAS DROPPED BACK TO 1/2 MILE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST OBS FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINE CHANGES
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM AT LEAST OUR
MICHIGAN COUNTIES. MORE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
FOR THE SHORT TERM. A RATHER COMPLICATED SATELLITE PICTURE AT
PRESS TIME WITH STRATUS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN CLEAR
SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO. PAIR OF WEAK AND HIGHLY SHEARED SHORTWAVES
WILL DRIVE THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. FIRST ONE...WHICH
ACTUALLY SHOWS UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA AND THE SUBTLE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH STRATUS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME FOG ALREADY SEEN UNDER STRATUS AND ANY
AREAS THAT MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD SEE
SOME DENSER FOG DEVELOP AS WELL. MEANWHILE...700MB MOISTURE PLUME
NOTED JUST UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS.
TOUGH TO GAUGE WHAT THE IMPACT WILL BE TO SITES THAT ARE ALREADY
SOCKED IN WITH FOG. A FEW OBS SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE. HRRR INDICATES FOG WILL
CONTINUE AND EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING. DENSE FOG IS NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE FOR AN ADVISORY BUT ENOUGH
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL EVIDENCE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
THIS MORNING AND HAVE JOINED OUR NEIGHBORS IN HOISTING AN
ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT VISIBILITIES ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE
AND SOME LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES MAY NOT EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG. BASED ON LATEST HI-
RES/RAPID UPDATE SOUNDINGS...SUSPECT DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF
RELATIVELY QUICKLY (AROUND 14Z)...THOUGH AN HOUR OR TWO EXTENSION
MAY BE NECESSARY IN A FEW AREAS. AFTERWARD...TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS SECONDARY WIND SHIFT/CAA PUSHES THROUGH AND
HAVE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS
AROUND 50F WITH A LOW CHANCE OF FOG GIVEN INCREASED LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND DRIER PROFILES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
NRN STREAM SW TROUGH OVR SE BC THIS MORNING PRIMARY WX
FTR OF NOTE THIS PD AS IT TRANSLATES ESE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES BY THU
NIGHT. OVERALL POOR RTN MSTR ADVTN AHD OF THIS SYS AND NWD TRACK OF
PRIMARY WAVE AND ASSOCD/HGT FALLS POINT TO BTR PRECIP
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WELL NORTH ACRS LWR MI W/CHCS TAILING OFF W/SWD
EXTENT. PRIMARY CHG EARLY ON IS TO TRUNCATE MENTIONABLE POP WINDOW
GIVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SEWD PROGRESSION OF CDFNT.
OTRWS BROAD ANTICYCLONE BLDS SEWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF
THIS SYS W/SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT FOLLOWED BY QUICK
MODERATION AS NXT IN SERIES OF NRN STREAM WAVES AMPLIFIES EWD ACRS
SRN CANADA ERLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS DISRUPTING FOG THIS MORNING AND EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AT KFWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW STRATUS MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO SCATTER BUT STILL EXPECT VFR AROUND 14Z. SOME
BRIEF BR POSSIBLE AT KSBN BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
ALTHOUGH FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OF CONCERN TODAY IS MORNING FOG.
VISIBILITIES HAVE AGAIN BEGUN TO PLUMMET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING WELL BELOW A MILE
AT THIS TIME. BASED ON HOW THE LAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE
EVOLVED...AND HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN
PERSISTENCE...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND
SOUTH...AND IT MAY ONLY OCCUR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND THE
DAYBREAK TIME FRAME...BUT FOR MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA DENSE FOG
WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS. DID BUMP THINGS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
FOG WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON MORNING HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ADD A BIT MORE
DETAIL TO GRIDS...BUT GENERAL IDEA OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE
SAME...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MIDDAY ONWARD.
WHILE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...MODEL K INDICES AND
SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
NONZERO THREAT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE...WITH MINOR TWEAKS
UPWARD THURSDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STUCK
NEAR SURFACE WETBULB PROGS FOR MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
A SOMEWHAT FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE
OF FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND THEN HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN BY DAY 7. THE 00Z EURO INDICATES RECIP IS POSSIBLE
SOME AREAS LATE MONDAY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL INDICATE A BIT MORE CLOUDS
ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL SATURDAY...WARMING SOME SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND TURNING A LITTLE COOLER AFTER THE 2ND COLD FRONT BY DAY 7.
MODEL INITIALIZATION SEEMS REASONABLE ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS...
BUT TWEAKED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY DAY 7 BASED ON THE NEW GFS AND EURO.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 070600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
GREATER CONFIDENCE IN SEEING IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT AS AN
INVERSION SETS UP WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. HOWEVER...MODEL 850-700
MILLIBAR TIME SECTIONS ARE SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH PATCHES OF THICK CLOUDS IN THIS
LAYER...CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
WILL STICK WITH HIGH END IFR AFTER 09Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. PRIOR TO THAT...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDTIONS
WITH DECREASING MID CLOUDS.
DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH LAF AFTER 21Z AND IND AFTER
00Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MK/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
347 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
70S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY WITH COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
FOR THE SHORT TERM. A RATHER COMPLICATED SATELLITE PICTURE AT
PRESS TIME WITH STRATUS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN CLEAR
SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO. PAIR OF WEAK AND HIGHLY SHEARED SHORTWAVES
WILL DRIVE THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. FIRST ONE...WHICH
ACTUALLY SHOWS UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA AND THE SUBTLE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH STRATUS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME FOG ALREADY SEEN UNDER STRATUS AND ANY
AREAS THAT MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD SEE
SOME DENSER FOG DEVELOP AS WELL. MEANWHILE...700MB MOISTURE PLUME
NOTED JUST UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS.
TOUGH TO GAUGE WHAT THE IMPACT WILL BE TO SITES THAT ARE ALREADY
SOCKED IN WITH FOG. A FEW OBS SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE. HRRR INDICATES FOG WILL
CONTINUE AND EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING. DENSE FOG IS NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE FOR AN ADVISORY BUT ENOUGH
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL EVIDENCE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
THIS MORNING AND HAVE JOINED OUR NEIGHBORS IN HOISTING AN
ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT VISIBILITIES ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE
AND SOME LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES MAY NOT EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG. BASED ON LATEST HI-
RES/RAPID UPDATE SOUNDINGS...SUSPECT DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF
RELATIVELY QUICKLY (AROUND 14Z)...THOUGH AN HOUR OR TWO EXTENSION
MAY BE NECESSARY IN A FEW AREAS. AFTERWARD...TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS SECONDARY WIND SHIFT/CAA PUSHES THROUGH AND
HAVE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS
AROUND 50F WITH A LOW CHANCE OF FOG GIVEN INCREASED LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND DRIER PROFILES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
NRN STREAM SW TROUGH OVR SE BC THIS MORNING PRIMARY WX
FTR OF NOTE THIS PD AS IT TRANSLATES ESE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES BY THU
NIGHT. OVERALL POOR RTN MSTR ADVTN AHD OF THIS SYS AND NWD TRACK OF
PRIMARY WAVE AND ASSOCD/HGT FALLS POINT TO BTR PRECIP
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WELL NORTH ACRS LWR MI W/CHCS TAILING OFF W/SWD
EXTENT. PRIMARY CHG EARLY ON IS TO TRUNCATE MENTIONABLE POP WINDOW
GIVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SEWD PROGRESSION OF CDFNT.
OTRWS BROAD ANTICYCLONE BLDS SEWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF
THIS SYS W/SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT FOLLOWED BY QUICK
MODERATION AS NXT IN SERIES OF NRN STREAM WAVES AMPLIFIES EWD ACRS
SRN CANADA ERLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
ANOTHER DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH PATCH OF STRATUS STILL
IMPACTING KFWA AND FOG AT KSBN. EXPECT STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF/WHEN
STRATUS DOES DISSIPATE...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE ARE SEEING AT
KSBN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT AT LEAST FUEL ALTERNATE
EXPECTED THROUGH 13-14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING COMMENCE.
FOR KSBN...APPROACHING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION
COMPLICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO PERSIST. UPSTREAM OBS
INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE LAST HOUR WITH KSBN AND OTHER
NEARBY SITES SHOWING DRASTICALLY FLUCTUATING VISIBILITIES. SUSPECT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AND NOT CONFIDENT THAT FOG WILL
PERSIST ALL MORNING GIVEN APPROACHING HIGHER BASED CLOUDS. HELD
WITH FUEL ALTERNATE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OBS FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
214 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW ACROSS SW US...WITH MEAN TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL WEAK CONVERGENT AREAS
LONG SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THIS AFTERNOON...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN
CLEARING AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO CU
FIELD/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. SB
CAPE VALUES 500-1000 J/KG ACCORDING TO RAP ANALYSIS SHOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE UPDRAFTS. WEAK SHEER AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL DESPITE
COOLER TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT. DUE TO THE MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST BL FLOW HELPING DRY OUT BOUNDARY
LAYER. I STILL COULDNT RULE OUT VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN REGIONS OF
PEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING/LIGHT WINDS...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. I DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING MENTION IN ZONES AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS DRIER BL CONDITIONS PERSISTING. STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARDS OUR CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA BY 00Z. INCREASING LIFT
AND INSTABILITY ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHERN
CWA. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS FROM THE WEST. THE PATH OF THE TROUGH HAS CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER THE LATEST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE
DECREASED THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...LEADING TO A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
DEVELOPING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR TWO ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL DURING THE NIGHT...OR ONE LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL. THE
FIRST ROUND WILL DEVELOP AS THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE LIFT
TO DEVELOP IN THE 800-700MB LAYER AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
DECLINE IN THAT LAYER.
BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND THE MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP.
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW STRONG LIFT CENTERED IN THE 500-400MB
LAYER...BUT ALSO EXTENDING OUTSIDE OF THIS LAYER FOR SOME PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SATURATED OR CLOSE TO
SATURATION AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR ZERO WITHIN THE
STRONG LIFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
RAINFALL SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE BAND OF LIFT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA DUE TO THE LIFT INCREASING. THE BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING WHEN
THE LIFT IS AT ITS PEAK.
BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF LIFT THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN PRIMARILY THE 400-500MB LAYER. THERE IS STILL SOME
WEAK LIFT OVERLAPPING THE FN VECTOR DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS...SO COULD FORESEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAINFALL
BEHIND THE MAIN BAND.
MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RAINFALL WILL EXIT THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT...HOWEVER THE AREA WILL BE DRY WELL BEFORE SUNRISE.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR SUNRISE WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 40S FOR THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE AREA.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SO DRY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE
COOLEST. SOME PARTS OF THE AREA WILL NEAR 90 DEGREES SUNDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TUESDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY WARM UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
MVFR CIGS (2000 KFT AGL) HAVE SPREAD OVER THE KGLD TERMINAL AND
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING EDGE JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL.
GUIDANCE SHOWS PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
EAST AND BL FLOW SHIFT TO THE SOUTH INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL I
LIMIT MENTION TO THE FIRST HOUR OF THIS TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AS
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF
PERIOD WITH INCREASING BL MIXING OVERNIGHT LIMITING FOG/STRATUS
POTENTIAL. WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED AT KMCK BY 12Z I CANT RULE OUT
RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AND POSSIBLY SPREADING TOWARDS THE
TERMINAL...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THIS IS NOT FAVORED BY GUIDANCE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1122 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING...LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HOW WARM IT GETS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND HOW COOL DOES IT GET BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW
STILL REMAINS IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN ARE DOING THE BEST
ON THE JET. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/NAM. THE RAP/SREF WERE DOING THE BEST
ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE SREF/NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LOT OF STUFF GOING ON TODAY. INITIALLY THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN A MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO THROUGH MID MORNING HAVE INSERTED
A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THAT AREA. NEXT...FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF CLOUD COVER. THAT HAS KEPT THE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LARGE. SO LITTLE TO NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. HOWEVER A
CLEAR SLOT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE LATEST RAP LOOKS TO BE CATCHING THAT AND DEVELOPS FOG OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SO WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR
THERE AND PATCHY TO THE EAST OF THAT.
JET LIFT STARTS OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING AND TENDS TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IS MORE
DIFFUSE AND UNORGANIZED. LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS COME THROUGH TO HELP THIS LIFT OUT. FIRST ONE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTION THIS MORNING THEN ANOTHER ONE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD THIS AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS ARE CURRENTLY OVERDOING PRECIPITATION. SO GOING BY
THE ABOVE REASONING WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LITTLE TO NO LIFT AND MOISTURE AROUND FOR TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP THIS
PERIOD DRY. SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND PREFRONTAL WARMING WILL KEEP
MINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE SLOWER FROM YESTERDAY IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. MODELS ARE ALSO SLOWER IN
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON AND ACTUALLY KEEP IT GOING
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MID LEVEL
LIFT...MAINLY IN THE NORTH...THERE WILL BE DECENT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE. FEEL MOST LOCATIONS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SO BROADBRUSHED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...IF CLOUDS DO NOT HINDER THE
WARMING...THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF...COULD WARM UP
RATHER NICELY. WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN
ADVANCE...DID WARM UP MAXES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING. A MUCH STRONGER
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF JET NOSES IN/MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY ALONG WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE BEST IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH THE
FAVORABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES. MODELS HAVE MORE QPF THAN LAST
NIGHT... ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. SO COVERED THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHER POPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST YOU GET.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAST DO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CLEAR
OUT. BECAUSE WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THEY LAST THE LONGEST IN
THE SOUTH AND WEST. SO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE MADE
THE COOLEST.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK IN STORE WITH A MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH
THEY COOL THE TEMPERATURES. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RECYCLED COOL AIR OVER MOST OF
THE AREA EXCEPT MAYBE THE FAR WEST. SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND
TENDED TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO EXTREMES AND WHERE THE MOST OF
THE TEMPERATURES CLUSTERED.
FRIDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COOL DEPENDING HOW STRONG
THE WINDS END UP BEING. SO LOWERED THE MINS A LITTLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE REGION. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. HOWEVER...LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. BROAD RIDGING REDEVELOPS
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...BRINGING
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
MVFR CIGS (2000 KFT AGL) HAVE SPREAD OVER THE KGLD TERMINAL AND
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING EDGE JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL.
GUIDANCE SHOWS PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
EAST AND BL FLOW SHIFT TO THE SOUTH INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL I
LIMIT MENTION TO THE FIRST HOUR OF THIS TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AS
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF
PERIOD WITH INCREASING BL MIXING OVERNIGHT LIMITING FOG/STRATUS
POTENTIAL. WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED AT KMCK BY 12Z I CANT RULE OUT
RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AND POSSIBLY SPREADING TOWARDS THE
TERMINAL...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THIS IS NOT FAVORED BY GUIDANCE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
538 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING...LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HOW WARM IT GETS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND HOW COOL DOES IT GET BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW
STILL REMAINS IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN ARE DOING THE BEST
ON THE JET. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/NAM. THE RAP/SREF WERE DOING THE BEST
ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE SREF/NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LOT OF STUFF GOING ON TODAY. INITIALLY THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN A MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO THROUGH MID MORNING HAVE INSERTED
A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THAT AREA. NEXT...FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF CLOUD COVER. THAT HAS KEPT THE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LARGE. SO LITTLE TO NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. HOWEVER A
CLEAR SLOT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE LATEST RAP LOOKS TO BE CATCHING THAT AND DEVELOPS FOG OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SO WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR
THERE AND PATCHY TO THE EAST OF THAT.
JET LIFT STARTS OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING AND TENDS TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IS MORE
DIFFUSE AND UNORGANIZED. LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS COME THROUGH TO HELP THIS LIFT OUT. FIRST ONE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTION THIS MORNING THEN ANOTHER ONE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD THIS AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS ARE CURRENTLY OVERDOING PRECIPITATION. SO GOING BY
THE ABOVE REASONING WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LITTLE TO NO LIFT AND MOISTURE AROUND FOR TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP THIS
PERIOD DRY. SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND PREFRONTAL WARMING WILL KEEP
MINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE SLOWER FROM YESTERDAY IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. MODELS ARE ALSO SLOWER IN
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON AND ACTUALLY KEEP IT GOING
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MID LEVEL
LIFT...MAINLY IN THE NORTH...THERE WILL BE DECENT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE. FEEL MOST LOCATIONS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SO BROADBRUSHED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...IF CLOUDS DO NOT HINDER THE
WARMING...THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF...COULD WARM UP
RATHER NICELY. WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN
ADVANCE...DID WARM UP MAXES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING. A MUCH STRONGER
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF JET NOSES IN/MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY ALONG WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE BEST IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH THE
FAVORABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES. MODELS HAVE MORE QPF THAN LAST
NIGHT... ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. SO COVERED THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHER POPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST YOU GET.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAST DO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CLEAR
OUT. BECAUSE WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THEY LAST THE LONGEST IN
THE SOUTH AND WEST. SO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE MADE
THE COOLEST.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK IN STORE WITH A MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH
THEY COOL THE TEMPERATURES. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RECYCLED COOL AIR OVER MOST OF
THE AREA EXCEPT MAYBE THE FAR WEST. SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND
TENDED TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO EXTREMES AND WHERE THE MOST OF
THE TEMPERATURES CLUSTERED.
FRIDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COOL DEPENDING HOW STRONG
THE WINDS END UP BEING. SO LOWERED THE MINS A LITTLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE REGION. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. HOWEVER...LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. BROAD RIDGING REDEVELOPS
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...BRINGING
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING BUT WILL BE TO THE WEST OF KGLD.
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING NEAR BOTH
SITES. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE WHATEVER PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR
WILL NOT AFFECT EITHER ONE SO DID NOT PUT ANY MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING NIGHT. THAT WIND SHIFT
WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
407 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING...LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HOW WARM IT GETS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND HOW COOL DOES IT GET BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW
STILL REMAINS IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN ARE DOING THE BEST
ON THE JET. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/NAM. THE RAP/SREF WERE DOING THE BEST
ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE SREF/NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LOT OF STUFF GOING ON TODAY. INITIALLY THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN A MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO THROUGH MID MORNING HAVE INSERTED
A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THAT AREA. NEXT...FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF CLOUD COVER. THAT HAS KEPT THE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LARGE. SO LITTLE TO NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. HOWEVER A
CLEAR SLOT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE LATEST RAP LOOKS TO BE CATCHING THAT AND DEVELOPS FOG OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SO WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR
THERE AND PATCHY TO THE EAST OF THAT.
JET LIFT STARTS OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING AND TENDS TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IS MORE
DIFFUSE AND UNORGANIZED. LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS COME THROUGH TO HELP THIS LIFT OUT. FIRST ONE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTION THIS MORNING THEN ANOTHER ONE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD THIS AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS ARE CURRENTLY OVERDOING PRECIPITATION. SO GOING BY
THE ABOVE REASONING WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LITTLE TO NO LIFT AND MOISTURE AROUND FOR TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP THIS
PERIOD DRY. SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND PREFRONTAL WARMING WILL KEEP
MINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE SLOWER FROM YESTERDAY IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. MODELS ARE ALSO SLOWER IN
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON AND ACTUALLY KEEP IT GOING
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MID LEVEL
LIFT...MAINLY IN THE NORTH...THERE WILL BE DECENT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE. FEEL MOST LOCATIONS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SO BROADBRUSHED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...IF CLOUDS DO NOT HINDER THE
WARMING...THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF...COULD WARM UP
RATHER NICELY. WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN
ADVANCE...DID WARM UP MAXES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING. A MUCH STRONGER
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF JET NOSES IN/MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY ALONG WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE BEST IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH THE
FAVORABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES. MODELS HAVE MORE QPF THAN LAST
NIGHT... ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. SO COVERED THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHER POPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST YOU GET.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAST DO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CLEAR
OUT. BECAUSE WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THEY LAST THE LONGEST IN
THE SOUTH AND WEST. SO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE MADE
THE COOLEST.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK IN STORE WITH A MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH
THEY COOL THE TEMPERATURES. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RECYCLED COOL AIR OVER MOST OF
THE AREA EXCEPT MAYBE THE FAR WEST. SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND
TENDED TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO EXTREMES AND WHERE THE MOST OF
THE TEMPERATURES CLUSTERED.
FRIDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COOL DEPENDING HOW STRONG
THE WINDS END UP BEING. SO LOWERED THE MINS A LITTLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE REGION. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. HOWEVER...LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. BROAD RIDGING REDEVELOPS
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...BRINGING
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE INCONSISTENT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS SUNRISE DUE TO VARIATIONS IN NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE AND RESULTING RH VALUES DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND LOW CLOUDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH BOTH
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AROUND SUNRISE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS.
HAVE KEPT BOTH MCK AND GLD VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-13Z
AT GLD DUE TO FOG AND LOWER CEILINGS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1145 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND WILL DRAG A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO UPDATE FOR CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND WIND
TRENDS.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW MORE CLOUDS ARE NOW DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE STILL A FEW HOURS AWAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
THROUGH NY STATE. MESOMODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
INDICATE PRECIPITATION REALLY WON`T REACH NH UNTIL CLOSE TO 09Z (6
AM). A FEW ECHOES WILL SHOW UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS
CENTRAL VT BEFORE THIS TIME BUT IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS FOR
TOP DOWN SATURATION TO OCCUR BEFORE THE RAIN REACHES THE GROUND.
STILL A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP MAINLY ABOVE 4500 FT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT.
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS NOW FORECAST TO CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST
AROUND MIDDAY. SOME AREAS OF SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME MAY NOT
SEE MUCH RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT. ADJUSTED TIMING OF RAINFALL
FOR THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS. RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THEN TAPERS TO
SHOWERS LATE AS THE LOW AND TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM RACE
OFFSHORE. QPF WILL RANGE FROM ONE HALF /0.50/ TO AS MUCH AS AN
INCH /1.00/ WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN UPSLOPE ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES. A FEW LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE CLEARING AND BREEZY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DIMINISHING
WINDS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT THE BULK OF THE CLOUDINESS TO BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF SHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHEARS BY TO THE NORTH. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES IN NORTHERN ZONES.
SKIES WILL BRIGHTEN IN SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY AS HIGH CLOUDS
PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE AGAIN NORTHERN ZONES WILL
SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID
60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND WARMER AIR
WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AS DOWN SLOPE
FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN TOP OUT
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY PUSH
SOME CLOUDS INTO SOUTHWEST ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR BTW 10 AND 14 Z FRI WITH
LCL IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. SOUTHERLY SFC WND WILL GUST TO 25 KT
VCNTY OF THE COAST. IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGHOUT FRI EVENING WITH
LCL MVFR IN CIGS AND SCT --SHRA/--SHSN PSB IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS EARLY
TUESDAY...THEN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW ON
FRIDAY WITH SCA WINDS AND SEAS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
854 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY AND WILL DRAG A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
A FEW MORE CLOUDS ARE NOW DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE STILL A FEW HOURS AWAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
THROUGH NY STATE. MESOMODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
INDICATE PRECIPITATION REALLY WON`T REACH NH UNTIL CLOSE TO 09Z (6
AM). A FEW ECHOES WILL SHOW UP OVER THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS
CENTRAL VT BEFORE THIS TIME BUT IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS FOR
TOP DOWN SATURATION TO OCCUR BEFORE THE RAIN REACHES THE GROUND.
STILL A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP MAINLY ABOVE 4500 FT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT.
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS NOW FORECAST TO CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST
AROUND MIDDAY. SOME AREAS OF SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME MAY NOT
SEE MUCH RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT. ADJUSTED TIMING OF RAINFALL
FOR THIS UPDATE.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO NUDGE ITS WAY INTO NH AND MAINE
FROM CANADA THIS EVENING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT WAS BRINGING
SOME CLOUDS INTO THE AREA. THE CLOUDS HAD JUST REACHED VT AND
NORTHERN MAINE AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE
AS WELL AS NH LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT WITH MOST OF TONIGHT`S RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING
AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS. READINGS NOW WERE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
AND WILL DROP ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES... DEW POINTS... WINDS AND SKY COVER FOR THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST AND PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS. RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THEN TAPERS TO
SHOWERS LATE AS THE LOW AND TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM RACE
OFFSHORE. QPF WILL RANGE FROM ONE HALF /0.50/ TO AS MUCH AS AN
INCH /1.00/ WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN UPSLOPE ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES. A FEW LINGERING UPSLOPE CLOUDS WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE CLEARING AND BREEZY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING DIMINISHING
WINDS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
EXPECT THE BULK OF THE CLOUDINESS TO BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
ZONES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF SHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHEARS BY TO THE NORTH. EXPECT INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
OR FLURRIES IN NORTHERN ZONES.
SKIES WILL BRIGHTEN IN SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY AS HIGH CLOUDS PUSH
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE AGAIN NORTHERN ZONES WILL SEE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID
60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AND WARMER AIR
WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DOWN SLOPE FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID
60S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY PUSH
SOME CLOUDS INTO SOUTHWEST ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR BTW 10 AND 14 Z FRI WITH
LCL IFR IN RAIN AND FOG. SOUTHERLY SFC WND WILL GUST TO 25 KT
VCNTY OF THE COAST. IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGHOUT FRI EVENING WITH
LCL MVFR IN CIGS AND SCT --SHRA/--SHSN PSB IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS EARLY
TUESDAY...THEN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW ON
FRIDAY WITH SCA WINDS AND SEAS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
440 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COASTAL FLOOD UPDATE.
AS OF 07Z...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED AT 1024MB OVER NRN MD...UNDER A BROAD UPR TROUGH
STRETCHING ALONG THE CANADA/US BORDER EAST FROM MN. ANOTHER UPR
TROUGH IS OFF THE SERN COAST...TRAILING THE REMNANT LOW THAT WAS
OVER THE SERN STATES THIS PAST WEEK. JUST SOME WISPY CIRRUS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NWRN FOURTH OF THE
CWA. FOG IS LIMITED FOR NOW DESPITE THE CALM AND DEWPOINT NOW IN THE
50S. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
TODAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPR TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE
AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING FROM THE NORTH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE (AND FEATURED IN THE PAST FEW HRRR RUNS)
INVOF AUGUST COUNTY. TRANQUIL OR LIGHT NORTH BREEZE...MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MID TO UPR 70S (80F POSSIBLE FOR SUNNIEST
LOCALES).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CONTINUED CALM. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 50S.
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER SWRN ZONES.
MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CD FNT IS XPCTD TO BE DVLPG OVR OHIO THU NGT...REACHING THE
APLCHNS FRI DURG MID/LATE AFTN FRI...THEN THE ERN SHORE FRI EVE.
IT LOOKS LK THE FNT WL BE LAGGING OVR THE AREA SAT. HIGH PRES
SHOULD BUILD BACK INTO THE MID ATLC SAT NGT AND SUN.
TEMPS FRI SHOULD WARM TO THE MU70S.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX...THE WX/POPS WE HV BEEN FCSTG LOOK GOOD -
LKLY IN THE FAR W FRI AFTN/CHC IN THE E. GDNC SDNG PROFILES ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SKINNY CAPE CAN BE XPCTD. HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE. PRVS SHIFT ADDED LOW CHC OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS E OF
THE MTNS FRI AFTN/EVE WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH
OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR...WHICH IS LN W/ WHAT THE
SREF SVR PRODUCT IS SHOWING. BUT GIVEN SKINNY CAPE/WEAK SHEAR THIS
WL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
SKIES WL BE SLOW TO CLR SAT...AND HV XTND THE CHC OF RW INTO
MIDDAY SAT W/ THE SLOW MOVG FNT.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER WX DAY OF THE WKND. M SUNNY SKIES W/
HIGHS U60S/A70. MON ALSO LOOKING GOOD W/ HIGHS IN THE LM70S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM REST OF THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LIMITING
FOG. ISOLATED SHOWERS INVOF KCHO THIS AFTERNOON FROM A WEAK UPR
DISTURBANCE. ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS AND LIGHT NLY FLOW. CALM AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED VFR.
IN THE XTND...CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS THU NGT AHD OF AN APRCHG CD
FNT. SUB VFR CONDS WL BE PSBL FRI AFTN/NGT AS THE FNT APRCHS...
BRINGING THE CWC OF RW/ISOLD TRW. CONDS WL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE...AND IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL SAT AFTN THAT
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT NLY FLOW THEN THROUGH TONIGHT...SHIFTING ELY THURSDAY BUT
REMAINING LIGHT.
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE XTND WL BE THE CD FNT APRCHG THE WATERS FRI
EVE. SCA LVL WINDS WL BE PSBL ON SRLY WINDS AHD OF THE FNT....AND
THEN BEHIND THE FNT DURG 1ST HALF OF SAT. ISOLD TSTMS WL BE PSBL
FRI EVE WHICH MAY HV THE PTNL TO PRODUCE SMW-LVL WINDS.
NO PROBS XPCTD SAT NGT THRU MON.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ONLY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NEXT HIGH TIDE IS ST MARYS AT
STRAITS POINT.
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MORNING/AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS LESSER...EXPECT LEVELS TO
APPROACH THE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD FOR CALVERT/ANNE
ARUNDEL AND DC/ALEXANDRIA.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THE PREFERRED
HIGH TIDE...BUT ONLY FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE SITES AND WOULD NEED
TO OVERCOME THE DECREASING ANOMALIES.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ017.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
BAJ/WOODY!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 07Z...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED AT 1024MB OVER NRN MD...UNDER A BROAD UPR TROUGH
STRETCHING ALONG THE CANADA/US BORDER EAST FROM MN. ANOTHER UPR
TROUGH IS OFF THE SERN COAST...TRAILING THE REMNANT LOW THAT WAS
OVER THE SERN STATES THIS PAST WEEK. JUST SOME WISPY CIRRUS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NWRN FOURTH OF THE
CWA. FOG IS LIMITED FOR NOW DESPITE THE CALM AND DEWPOINT NOW IN THE
50S. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
TODAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPR TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE
AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING FROM THE NORTH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE (AND FEATURED IN THE PAST FEW HRRR RUNS)
INVOF AUGUST COUNTY. TRANQUIL OR LIGHT NORTH BREEZE...MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MID TO UPR 70S (80F POSSIBLE FOR SUNNIEST
LOCALES).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CONTINUED CALM. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 50S.
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER SWRN ZONES.
MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CD FNT IS XPCTD TO BE DVLPG OVR OHIO THU NGT...REACHING THE
APLCHNS FRI DURG MID/LATE AFTN FRI...THEN THE ERN SHORE FRI EVE.
IT LOOKS LK THE FNT WL BE LAGGING OVR THE AREA SAT. HIGH PRES
SHOULD BUILD BACK INTO THE MID ATLC SAT NGT AND SUN.
TEMPS FRI SHOULD WARM TO THE MU70S.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX...THE WX/POPS WE HV BEEN FCSTG LOOK GOOD -
LKLY IN THE FAR W FRI AFTN/CHC IN THE E. GDNC SDNG PROFILES ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SKINNY CAPE CAN BE XPCTD. HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE. PRVS SHIFT ADDED LOW CHC OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS E OF
THE MTNS FRI AFTN/EVE WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH
OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR...WHICH IS LN W/ WHAT THE
SREF SVR PRODUCT IS SHOWING. BUT GIVEN SKINNY CAPE/WEAK SHEAR THIS
WL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
SKIES WL BE SLOW TO CLR SAT...AND HV XTND THE CHC OF RW INTO
MIDDAY SAT W/ THE SLOW MOVG FNT.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER WX DAY OF THE WKND. M SUNNY SKIES W/
HIGHS U60S/A70. MON ALSO LOOKING GOOD W/ HIGHS IN THE LM70S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM REST OF THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LIMITING
FOG. ISOLATED SHOWERS INVOF KCHO THIS AFTERNOON FROM A WEAK UPR
DISTURBANCE. ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS AND LIGHT NLY FLOW. CALM AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED VFR.
IN THE XTND...CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS THU NGT AHD OF AN APRCHG CD
FNT. SUB VFR CONDS WL BE PSBL FRI AFTN/NGT AS THE FNT APRCHS...
BRINGING THE CWC OF RW/ISOLD TRW. CONDS WL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE...AND IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL SAT AFTN THAT
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT NLY FLOW THEN THROUGH TONIGHT...SHIFTING ELY THURSDAY BUT
REMAINING LIGHT.
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE XTND WL BE THE CD FNT APRCHG THE WATERS FRI
EVE. SCA LVL WINDS WL BE PSBL ON SRLY WINDS AHD OF THE FNT....AND
THEN BEHIND THE FNT DURG 1ST HALF OF SAT. ISOLD TSTMS WL BE PSBL
FRI EVE WHICH MAY HV THE PTNL TO PRODUCE SMW-LVL WINDS.
NO PROBS XPCTD SAT NGT THRU MON.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MORNING/AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS LESSER...BUT WILL APPROACH
MINOR LEVELS FOR CALVERT/ANNE ARUNDEL AND DC/ALEXANDRIA. AS OF NOW
ONLY CONFIDENCE IN MINOR FOR ST MARYS AT STRAITS POINT. MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THE PREFERRED HIGH
TIDE...BUT WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THE DECREASING ANOMALIES.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014-
018.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ011.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ017.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ535.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ538.
&&
$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
LOCATED OVER THE SE CORNER OF SASKATCHEWAN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA FROM SE SASK THROUGH SRN MANITOBA INTO CNTRL AND NE ND. AT
THE SFC...SRLY WINDS HAD INCREASED OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO WRN MN
BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR AND A TROUGH AND
WARM FRONT FROM SRN SASK INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. VIS LOOP SHOWED
DIMINISHING SC AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE ERN CWA AS HIGH PRES
AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
SASK SHRTWV WERE ALREADY STREAMING THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN
UPPER MI.
THE MODELS REMAINED IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING/POSITION OF THE SHRTWV AND SFC LOW MOVING INTO UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WEST AFTER 06Z...CNTRL
AFT 10Z AND EAST BY 14Z. MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 200 J/KG AND
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES ALSO SUPPORT TSRA POTENTIAL OVER THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND PWAT TO AROUND
1.0 INCH...QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.4 TO 0.7 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH. WITH LINGERING DEEP
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHER POPS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY FOR
UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM W
TO E BTWN 15Z-21Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF THE CWA THU NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO
NW FLOW ALOFT UNTIL A RIDGE MOVES OVER SUN AHEAD OF A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN NW FLOW THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THU NIGHT...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL RESULT
IN UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT REGIONS INTO FRI MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND 0C. A SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CUTTING OFF PRECIP BY LATE MORNING AND LAKE CLOUDS FROM W
TO E BY LATE FRI. WILL LINGER CLOUD COVER LONGER SINCE MODELS TEND
TO CLEAR SKIES TOO FAST IN THIS SCENARIO.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AHEAD AND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
THAT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPS SAT AND SUN. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM 0C AT 18Z FRI TO 20C BY
00Z MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS SUN. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF SW WINDS ON
SUN...FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A GREATER CONCERN GIVEN TEMPS 15F TO MAYBE
20F ABOVE NORMAL AND HOW LITTLE RAIN MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN OVER THE
LAST MONTH.
ALL MODEL HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER AND FARTHER S WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT AND MON.
MOST MODELS NOW HAVE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...SO WILL BE
INCREASING POPS. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH IN THE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT MODELS ONLY HAVE
SOME SCATTERED AND LIGHT QPF NEAR THE AREA. WILL LET MODEL CONSENSUS
POPULATE THE FORECAST FOR TUE AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z. THEN...A NEARING LOW FROM
THE WEST WILL BRING SHOWERS STARTING AT IWD AND MOVING TO SAW BY OR
AROUND 12Z. MODERATE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED...WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO
MVFR RANGE BY 12Z AND TO LOWER END MVFR OR IFR DURING THE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH NRN ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ERN ND AND FAR W MN THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE ACROSS W UPPER MI THURSDAY MORNING WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TO
NEARING 30KTS OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BEFORE EXITING
ACROSS N LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THURSDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE LOW
NRLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FRI AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SAT AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES OFF TO THESE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER CNTRL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW NRN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FROM WRN CANADA THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MAIN NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH NEAR JAMES BAY...ONLY VERY WEAK
UPSTREAM SHRTWVS WERE NOTED FROM SRN SASK INTO NW ONTARIO. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO NRN UPPER MI. OBS AND VIS LOOP
SHOWED SOME MID CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI. A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOWER
CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN INTO NW ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB
TEMPS NEAR 0C WAS GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE ESE.
TONIGHT...ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING
OVER THE ERN CWA SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY EVENING...EXPECT A CLEARING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AND 900 MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 1C...UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING CLOUDS N CNTRL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEST WITH DECOUPLED WINDS...TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FROST.
WED...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASING ACYC
FLOW...ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS OR LIGHT PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SUNSHINE/MIXING WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN IN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND
MAYBE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE WAVE LEADING TO THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS
THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF
THE LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG 925-700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THAT PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE INTO THE U.P. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED THE HEAVIEST RAIN A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY.
EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND...STILL THINK MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.5-0.75IN OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
THE LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY EVENING
AND BRING AN END TO THE LARGER SCALE PRECIPITATION. BUT WRAP AROUND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DRIER
AIR ARRIVES WITH AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP SINCE YESTERDAY...SO
WITH THOSE CLOUDS EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO
OCCUR DUE TO 825MB TEMPS AROUND -1C. THEREFORE...WILL LINGER SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED
NORTHERLY WIND AREAS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE...FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN DEPART ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AND CONTINUING INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LOW TRACK STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...EXPECT LITTLE/NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLING N-NW WINDS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AT CMX. THESE
CLOUDS ARE ALSO CLOSE TO IWD AND SAW...MAKING THE EARLY MORNING FCST
TRICKY. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN TO
RAISE CEILINGS BACK TO VFR BY MID MORNING. VFR CEILINGS AND VIS ALONG
WITH WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS VEERING FROM WSW TO NNW. WINDS TO 25 KNOTS
NEAR THE KEWEENAW THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
OVER CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
A LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH THE SE WINDS PEAKING AROUND
30KTS THU. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI
EVENING BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN FROM THE SW LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
627 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE PCPN CHANCES FOR
TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONGEST 500 MB 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 12Z WERE CENTERED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RADAR ECHOES OUT OF A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK SPREADING SEWD.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP13 MODEL RUNS SHOW LIGHT PCPN SPREADING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. THINK
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...0.02 INCHES OR LESS AT MOST SPOTS...
BUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO JUST GO WITH
AREAL COVERAGE WORDING. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO END AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT EXIT THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY UP OVER MN
AND THE ERN DKTS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO IA AND PARTS OF ERN NE
LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
WE EXPECT A MODERATELY THICK AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. LOOK FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID
OR UPPER 60S...BUT SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE IN WRN IOWA.
RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMP PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS 75 TO
80 IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND LOWER 80S WEST. THERE ARE HINTS THAT
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY MORNING SO
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THAT POTENTIAL. BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT FOR
SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE MOVING IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE SEEMS
LIMITED AT THIS POINT SO KEPT POPS BELOW 10 PERCENT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS PERIOD MAINLY DRY. A FAIRLY STRONG PUSH
OF COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S FOR MONDAY. FAIRLY FAST W/NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW...BUT THESE
SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH PCPN. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OFF THE BAJA
COAST MOVING UP TO CA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOCALLY...HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
SCATTERED HIGH BASE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES UNTIL AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST EXTENT OF CLOUD
COVER ACROSS KOMA. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1118 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION AND BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. SHOWERS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER AIR BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT A CHILLY BUT DRY SATURDAY...BEFORE
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY WILL TRACK EASTWARD...PASSING
JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS A SLUG OF STEADY
RAIN WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
LATE THIS EVENING. THIS AREA EXTENDS ALONG AN AREA OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND UNDERNEATH THE NOSE OF A LLJ AVERAGING 40 KTS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL CONSENSUS CAPTURES THIS WELL...WITH RECENT
RUNS OF THE NAM/GEM/GFS/HRRR IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THIS AREA
TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. RADAR
TRENDS AND MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORT HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE...WITH
A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN AND A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS.
SOUTH OF THIS IS A MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN AREA OF SHOWERS. THIS
IS BEST CAPTURED BY THE HRRR...WITH THIS AREA SET TO BRING SOME
RAIN TO THE LAKE PLAINS FROM 11PM TO 4AM. THERE ARE SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN THIS...AND WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM. SOUTH OF THIS SHOULD STAY DRY
UNTIL THE FRONT COMES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. THE 00Z NAM AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THIS FRONT AND AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THERE IS STILL GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO ALL AREAS LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A MILD OCTOBER NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WILL BE DEEPENING...IT WILL ONLY DO SO A FEW MB...AND LACKING
ANY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WE SHOULD ONLY SEE A MODEST INCREASE
IN WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...UPWARDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH. CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW LINGERS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION
WHERE SOME POSSIBLE LATE DAY SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD SATURDAY...LEADING TO QUIET
AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 50S...
DESPITE A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW AND SIMPLE AIRMASS
MODIFICATION ALLOWING HIGHS TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...ALBEIT AN INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER CANADA WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY...AS WE BECOME
POSITIONED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE AS IT SINKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN ARMER AIR AND
INCREASE MIXING...PUSHING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN LOW WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
WILL REMAIN LIMITED...THE DEGREE OF DYNAMICS SUPPORTS ONGOING SHOWER
MENTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT WAVE AND ATTENDANT SHOWER CHANCES
RETURNING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SLUG OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BUT WITH A DEVELOPING
SSW FLOW DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP KEEP CIGS IN THE VFR OR MVFR
CATEGORY. A 40 KT LLJ WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL LLWS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
ANY WOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.
THE LOWEST CIGS/VSBY SHOULD COME RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH IFR
CIGS/VSBY LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER THIS EXPECT RAIN TO END FROM W-E AND A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. IFR CIGS MAY LINGER
BEHIND THE FRONT IN SOME LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR CIGS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CREATING MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR LAKE ERIE AND THE UPPER
NIAGARA RIVER. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY REACH
20 KNOTS OR SO ON LAKE ERIE...WHICH WILL ALSO GENERATE WAVES NEAR
4 FEET. THERE MAY BE A TIME EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF NON-SCA
CONDITIONS AS WINDS SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WITH WINDS
AGAIN INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LEZ020.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
253 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
TIMING AND PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN CURRENTLY. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST ENTERING NORTHWESTERN ND. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY DOWN
TOWARDS CENTRAL ND...AND WITH SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED CAPE...A FEW
HAVE GROWN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER. RAIN HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
SLOW TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR AT THE SFC...BUT WEB CAMS
SHOW SOME LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN GETTING HEAVIER RETURNS HAVE
BEEN SATURATED. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT BEEN DOING TOO BADLY
WITH THE POPS SO FOLLOWED THEIR TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THINK
THAT THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THINK WE WILL DRY OUT BY
MORNING AS THIS FAIRLY FAST MOVING SYSTEM MOVES BY. LOWERED PRECIP
AMOUNTS JUST A BIT AS SOME OF THE FIRST RAIN HAS NOT REACHED THE
GROUND...BUT THINK THAT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE AROUND A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH.
TOMORROW...THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY OFF INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
IT. THERE HAS BEEN SOME GOOD RH VALUES AT 850MB SO THINK THAT
CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED THURSDAY.
BETWEEN CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN THE
50S...WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT RATHER RAW. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS COULD
AGAIN GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. HAVE COORDINATED WITH
NEIGHBORS A CONTINUATION OF FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AT LEAST...BUT HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HEADLINES FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO
UPPER RIDGING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SFC WILL PICK
UP AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMING UP FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
60S...BUT READINGS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SATURDAY AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 C.
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD GET NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK ON
SATURDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY TIME FRAME WITH POPS WILL BE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO THE THE EARLY MONDAY HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE AND FROPA
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THAT WAVE WILL BE NEAR
RECORD WARM TEMPS ON SUNDAY...UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH IDEAL
WESTERLY SFC WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 15 TO 20C RANGE. BEHIND
THE FROPA TEMPS WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID OCTOBER...LOW TO MID 60S FOR MAX TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
CHALLENGING TAF ISSUANCE WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...20 TO
25KTS...EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS TURNING TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST. THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE POOR SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS BEHIND
THE NW WIND SHIFT/FRONT EXPECTED AT ALL SITES EXCLUDING KFAR. GUSTY
NW WINDS TOMORROW MORNING...20 TO 25KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
121 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
INHERITED FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT SO NO
BIG CHANGES.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRENDED BACK ON POPS. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH MAKES SENSE
SINCE THE S/WV THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION ON WED
WILL BE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN 12Z THIS
MORNING...OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WED AFTERNOON. REMOVED POPS
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FROM WEST TO EAST WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...REMOVING ENTIRELY AFTER 06Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST TO CAPTURE
LATEST CONDITIONS. CONSIDERED ADDING PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE HEART
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP DO NOT
SHOW VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT...SO LEFT IT OUT FOR
NOW. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT MAY ALSO HELP LIMIT THE
FOG POTENTIAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING H5 WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ANY RAIN CHANCES UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES COMING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A POOL OF COOL AIR MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR MAINTAINING AN AREA OF CLOUDS TODAY...AND THE
REMNANTS OF THESE CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS MCLEAN COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS DELIVER A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND WITH A
90KT H300 JET ENTRANCE REGION MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING A SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE IN PLACE ORIENTED
NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. THESE FEATURES MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
A MINOT-BISMARCK LINE DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN PERHAPS A
LINGERING SHOWER IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S IN THE JAMES
VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE SURFACE TROUGH...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY AND
COOLER DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. A COOL NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER 30S FOR LOWS FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY...WITH 40S FARTHER WEST.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AN LOWER 80S...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. THEN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
WILL MAINTAIN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NOW INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KBIS...KMOT AND KJMS FROM MID
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES THEN DECREASE WED
EVENING. WILL MENTION VCSH FOR THESE THREE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS IS DEPICTED BY MODELS TO SURGE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
918 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
Delayed the onset of pops and lowered pops a bit for the remainder
of the night based on current radar and HRRR output. Could see
some spotty gusty winds with this activity...but significant
severe weather is not expected.
Updated products are on the way.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 59 76 48 78 / 50 40 0 0
FSM 64 79 49 80 / 20 20 10 0
MLC 62 77 49 80 / 20 30 0 0
BVO 57 76 43 78 / 60 40 0 0
FYV 55 71 42 75 / 20 30 0 0
BYV 56 70 46 73 / 30 40 0 0
MKO 61 76 47 79 / 30 40 0 0
MIO 57 73 44 76 / 60 50 0 0
F10 61 75 50 78 / 30 30 0 0
HHW 64 86 55 84 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
745 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.DISCUSSION...LATEST BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...OVER MEXICO. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEAKEN DUE TO THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME
ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREA OVERNIGHT.
ALSO...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF VALUES BASED ON THE
UPDATED POPS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A MIX OF
MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WELL SOUTH OF THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AS FAR AS LOCATION AND TIMING. SOME CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PRODUCING A MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING. THE SLOWER MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOOD IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SONORA MX
CONTINUES A S/SE MOTION IN RESPONSE TO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL CA COAST. LOW IS PROVIDING
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG MUCH OF WEST TX. THIS WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
DUE TO OVC TO BKN DECK AROUND 8000 FEET...THE CONVECTION HAS NOT
MATERIALIZE AT THIS TIME BUT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOWS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL AID FOR MORE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY TONIGHT.
HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR THE 70S WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND.
FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT...AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER WEST TO SW THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS BUT STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE ARE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO 70S AND STILL SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL
ALLOW FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE LOW 70S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER WEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...ON SATURDAY WE WILL SEE
THE GRADUAL BUT CONTINUED RETREAT OF THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
TRANSLATES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. LONGER (GEOGRAPHIC) RANGE
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE LOW MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE BORDER
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FIRST PERIOD ON SATURDAY...RAIN
CHANCES WILL FADE UNTIL TUESDAY. BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER...ALTHOUGH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS BY
A FEW DEGREES AT NIGHT TO SEVERAL DEGREES OR MORE DURING THE DAY.
THE TAIL END OF A MIDWEST COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO NORTH TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD TRANSLATING UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL LOSE ENERGY BEFORE GETTING TO THE RGV. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS
WEEKEND...IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN TIER MID LEVEL PATTERN...
WILL SUPPORT A SECOND WEAK PLAINS COLD FRONT PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH
BY TUESDAY. FRONTOLYSIS IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WED...WITH A SHORT LIVED WINDOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THAT PERIOD.
THE GFS/UKMET/AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...LENDING ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES WILL DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT TUESDAY...BUT IN AREAS ONLY
WEAKLY RELATED TO THE CWA...AND HENCE SOME CONFIDENCE IS AFFORDED
TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE LONG TERM AS WELL.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE INLAND WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF WATERS. MORE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
INTO FRIDAY BUT WILL DIMINISH INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY AND LOWER TO LESS THAN 3 FEET
BY FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE UPSTREAM CUT OFF LOW
WILL BE RETREATING SOUTHWEST OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA ON SAT...
EASING WX CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE AREAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN BROAD AND FLAT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...SUPPORTING
LIGHT TO MDT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY FM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER SATURDAY WHEN SURFACE TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 85 71 86 / 20 30 10 20
BROWNSVILLE 74 86 71 87 / 20 30 10 30
HARLINGEN 73 88 70 89 / 20 30 10 20
MCALLEN 75 88 72 89 / 20 40 20 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 74 90 71 91 / 30 50 20 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 82 77 84 / 20 30 10 20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
63
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1204 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING KLBB AND KCDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT COMPUTER FORECASTS ARE
NOT CONSISTENT ON LOCATION AND TIMING SO UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
JORDAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE HAVASU CITY ARIZONA WAS
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST...AND EXPECTED TO TAKE MORE OF A SOUTHEAST
TURN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW TO NEAR DOUGLAS ARIZONA BY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST THAN
AVAILABLE TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET WAS
ARCING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE AND
AN AREA OF LIFT EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD NEAR THE STATE LINE
OVERNIGHT. MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS AT LEAST BRING PRECIPITATION CLOSE
TO THE STATE LINE IF NOT SLIGHTLY EAST OF IT OVERNIGHT WHILE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE HRRR SOLUTION HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS EASTWARD EXTENT
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE OF THUNDER
ALONG WESTERN BORDER OVERNIGHT WHILE TRIMMING THE SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION A BIT FURTHER WEST.
A SECOND AREA OF LIFT IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ALSO
A BIT FURTHER WEST OF PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. DRY AIR TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WOULD BE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY PLUME TO ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BACKS...AND WOULD NOT BE A POSITIVE FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
SO WE HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHILE DECREASING THE FORECAST CHANCES AS
FAR WEST AS THE INTERSTATE 27 CORRIDOR. FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR THUNDER CHANCES AS
WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD OVERNIGHT...SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE...AND THIS WARMER START
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO A WARM DAY ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES
WITH LESS OPAQUE CLOUD COVER. TRENDED HIGHS WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED AROUND THE PROGRESSION OF THE
CLOSED AND CUTOFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WHAT
IMPACTS IT WILL HAVE ON WEST TEXAS MID-LATE WEEK. AS IS THE CASE FOR
CUTOFF SYSTEMS...FORECASTING IT/S EVENTUAL PATH IS ALWAYS A
DIFFICULT AND OFTEN HUMBLING PROSPECT. THAT SAID...THE LATEST NWP
CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR EAST WITH THE UPPER
LOW...DIGGING IT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THEN
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO /CENTERED WELL WEST OF EL PASO/ ON
THURSDAY BEFORE IT BEGINS RETROGRADING TOWARD THE BAJA LATE WEEK.
THIS TREND RESULTS IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAN HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. ATTM...IT STILL DOES APPEAR THE UPPER LOW WILL COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE/LIFT TO THE WESTERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...PERHAPS EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPROCK ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE MOIST
TROPOSPHERE /WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.20 INCHES/
EFFICIENT RAINERS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT TRACKS REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. DRIER
AIR AND WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DO CALL
INTO QUESTION HOW FAR EAST THE BETTER/HEAVIER RAIN CHANCES WILL
MAKE IT. IN FACT...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER TIGHT
RAINFALL GRADIENT LIKE WE SAW WITH THE PAST WEEKEND RAINS WHERE
THE WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES AND THE EASTERN MOST ZONES
MAY JUST SEE LIGHT AMOUNTS. PER THE TRENDS...WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID- TO
LATE-WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A HEAVY RAIN
MENTION ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING TO
MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS ADDED TO THE HWO. AS SPC HAS NOTED...IF
ENOUGH HEATING/INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO VISIT THE WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER
LOW BACKS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE PICTURE FROM THE NORTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH CRUISES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME HEATING MAY
RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY /ALONG WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION/ TO SPUR
ADDITION SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WEST TEXAS IS BENEATH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW
MOVING BACK OUT INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION. ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING WAVE WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY SEND A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE REGION NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD PROVIDE MINIMAL
COOLING.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...DECENT MOISTURE AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES WILL
TEND TO KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES SUPPRESSED THOUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY UP ON THE CAPROCK. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE BREEZES RETURN. IN FACT...THE LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS UP NEAR 90 DEGREES BY
SUNDAY. WE HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...BUT
NOT QUITE THAT WARM YET. THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBLE WEAK FRONT AND
MINOR COOLING MOVING IN AT SOME POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 53 67 53 68 / 70 60 40 40
TULIA 55 72 55 69 / 50 50 40 30
PLAINVIEW 56 73 56 71 / 60 60 40 40
LEVELLAND 56 71 56 71 / 80 70 40 50
LUBBOCK 57 73 57 73 / 60 60 40 40
DENVER CITY 57 69 57 69 / 80 70 50 50
BROWNFIELD 58 71 57 71 / 80 70 40 50
CHILDRESS 60 83 61 78 / 20 30 40 30
SPUR 60 78 59 78 / 30 50 50 40
ASPERMONT 63 84 62 82 / 20 40 40 50
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
320 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
TOOK A FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE STEP TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY SOUTH AND WEST OF LA CROSSE. CONSENSUS SIGNALS ARE
POINTING TO WISCONSIN...AND NORTH OF I-90 FOR RAIN.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE SEEN IN GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SCREAMING FOR THE GREAT LAKES. RADAR SHOWING STORMS
OVER ND...MORE THAN MANY OF THE HIGHER RES CAMS HAD FORECAST AT
19Z. LIGHTNING INTO ND-CANADA TOO AND REALLY AGREES WELL WITH
300-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PER RAP 07.18Z RUN. THIS ALL IN AN
SPC ANALYSIS OF 100-250 J/KG OF MUCAPE. NOT TO GIVE AWAY THE END
OF MY STORY...BUT THAT QG SIGNAL CARRIES THROUGH NRN WI...MAINLY
NORTH OF I-94 BY 12Z THURSDAY.
THE ND STORMS ALSO ARE FORMING IN AN AREA OF GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS.
SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL THERE AS WELL WITH 3-4 MB
FALLS AHEAD OF A N-S WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
TRENDS BOTH IN THE OBSERVATIONS AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CARRY THE FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH RAINFALL TRENDS
FOLLOWING SUIT. THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SIGNAL ALOFT...LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL POINT TOWARD A GOOD
SYNOPTICALLY FORCED RAIN/EMBEDDED TSRA WAVE THURSDAY ACROSS
WISCONSIN...BUT MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. FURTHER SOUTH...THE BEST
FORCING SEEMS TO BE COLD FRONTAL THETAE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS. HOWEVER...THAT IS THE LAYER THAT IS THE DRIEST WITH
RELATIVELY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE SURFACE TO 2 KM LAYER.
THUS...THERE ARE ISSUES WITH SATURATION. THE MID-LEVELS HAVE SOME
SATURATION AND THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY OF ABOUT 500 J/KG.
OVERALL...TIMING TRENDS REMAINED THE SAME WITH MAINLY MORNING RAIN
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED FORCING
AND CONSENSUS HI RES CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING LIMITED
RAIN COVERAGE WEST AND SOUTH OF LA CROSSE...THINKING AN ISOLATED
TO SCT LINE OF SHRA-TSRA IS THE BEST WE ARE GOING TO DO ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. THAT LINE WOULD AFFECT A GIVEN SPOT FOR AN HOUR. BEEN
WATCHING THE HRRR BOULDER VERSION AND IT REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THIS THU MORNING FORECAST.
THUS...HAVE BACKED THE RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 50 PERCENT SOUTH
OF ABOUT I-90...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT INCREASING NORTHWARD. HAVE
ALSO LOWERED THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THAT LOWER RAIN CHANCE AREA.
THE FRONT MAY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVATED WORKING INTO SW WI WHERE
A BIT OF INSTABILITY WILL GROW. SPC HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK...AND IT SEEMS REALLY MARGINAL PROVIDED THE FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT BY 3-4 PM /OF GRANT COUNTY/. FOR THE MOST PART...THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA HAS A SIMILAR FORECAST TO EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD
ADVECTION KICKS IN POST-FRONTALLY ON THURSDAY WITH BRISK
CONDITIONS...DRAWING A LOWER CLOUD DECK IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
THIS PERIOD IS MAINLY DRY WITH RIDGE BUILDING AND MAINLY WEAK
WAVES TRYING TO GENERATE WEATHER. THE EMPHASIS WAS REALLY ON
LOOKING FOR POSSIBLE DAYS FOR DRY FALL FIRE STARTS. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE WARM ADVECTIVE DAYS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HAVE
INCREASED THESE A BIT WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE
SATURDAY. THIS COULD HAPPEN SUNDAY AS WELL...AS A WARM PROD OF AIR
MOVES OFF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...A GREAT
FLOW FOR UNUSUALLY WARMTH. HAVE BUMPED HIGHS SUNDAY TO JUST BELOW
RECORD LEVELS WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...CLOSER TO THE HOT AIR.
A MODERATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY BUT THE VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT IS BATTLING THE DYNAMICS. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO A BIT COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP OUR EYES ON THIS ONE AS IT SEEMS IT COULD
PRODUCE SOME RAIN...EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL FORECAST CONSENSUS IS
DRY. BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A WIND PRODUCER WITH ANOTHER 20-30 MPH DAY.
AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...ALREADY DRY...WILL REALLY NEED RAIN AFTER
THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING AREA SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUD BY EVENING WITH
A BROKEN MID-LEVEL DECK BY MIDNIGHT. BEST FORCING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE OVER NORTHERN MN/WI...BUT THERE
IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE SHOWERS AT BOTH TAF SITES. LOOKING
LIKE ABOUT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST RISK FOR RAIN SO
TRIED TO LIMIT IT TO THAT. LOOKING LIKE VERY LITTLE RESTRICTION TO
VISIBILITY AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER CONCERN IS WIND GUSTS. GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COULD HELP SOUTH WINDS GUST OVER 20KTS...AND
THEN GOOD MIXING BEHIND IT WOULD SUGGEST NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTS OF
20-25KTS. MODEL FORECASTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST A LOW/MVFR
STRATO-CU FIELD MOVING IN...BUT SHOULD BE LAG OF 1-2 HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1124 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
...SLIGHTLY COOLER TOMORROW...
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER TODAY ACROSS SE CO. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...RIGHT AROUND 80 DEGREES AT KPUB OR
NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HAVE ALREADY REDUCED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LOW POPS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ARE IN JEOPARDY...WITH NO SIGN OF CONVECTION THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND RATON
AND SPANISH PEAKS REGION. THIS IS WHERE ENHANCED CU FIELD HAS BUILT
UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING AN ISOLD
SHOWER OR STORM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NRN CO AND SHOULD REACH THE PALMER DVD AND
THE REST OF SE CO AFTER 00Z. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
NAM...WHICH SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THE
HIGHER RES HRRR AND WRF MODELS...WHICH SHOW FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER RES SOLUTIONS
AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS AND ERN MTS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGINS OVER TELLER COUNTY AND THE PIKES PEAK
REGION...THEN SHIFT SWD WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...CLEARING THE
SRN ZONES BY 12Z OR SO. LOOKS MAINLY TO BE STRATIFORM PRECIP...SO
ANY LTG WITH STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLD AT BEST.
TOMORROW...AFTER EARLY MORNING STRATUS CLEARS...WILL BE ANOTHER DRY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR THE PLAINS. THE NAM
STILL SHOWS SOME SPOTTY AFTERNOON QPF OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPING THINGS
DRY ACROSS SE CO. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STRONGLY TO THE WEST
AND NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES EVIDENT IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL
KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW...AND THIS CAN BE REEVALUATED BY LATER
SHIFTS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING +10C OR HIGHER. ON
SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH SUNDAY BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER. ON SUNDAY GRIDS HAVE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ALS/75...COS/81...PUB/88.
RECORDS ARE....ALS/78...COS/82...PUB/89.
.MONDAY...WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...RESULTING IN SOME COOLING ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE
PLAINS. FORECAST HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THE PLAINS RISE INTO THE
80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH ARE 10F OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL. BY THURSDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING EASTWARD. SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD REACH WESTERN COLORADO...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED POPS TO THE SAN JUANS AND SAWATCH RANGE. SYSTEM WILL BE
MILD SO ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
--PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
OUTSIDE OF BRIEF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AT KCOS
AND KPUB THIS EVENING...PROJECT THAT MVFR DECK(IN WAKE OF FRONT)
SHOULD BE NOTED AT TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT
KALS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AT
BOTH KCOS AND KPUB FROM LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
155 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY AND
THEN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH DURING FRIDAY, AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
145 AM ESTF UPDATE...ADDED MORE FOG TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST, ISSUED
AN SPS FOR THE NJT REGION AND UPDATED THE HWO FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG
THAT HAD SUDDENLY DEVELOPED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 1 AM OVER A MORE
WIDESPREAD REGION THAN JUST KMIV.
EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY END THE
COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND I THINK ALSO REDUCE THE RISK
OF THICK FOG TOWARD DAWN. STILL LOOKING FOR SCT LIGHT SHOWERS TO
FORM/DEVELOP ON RADAR OVER EASTERN PA AROUND 6 AM IN THE
INSTABILITY BURST. LIGHT SOUTH WIND DEVELOPS.
TODAY...LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN FCST EXPECTATIONS AS PRESENTED IN
THURSDAY`S AFD`S. AFTER ANY SCT EARLY MORNING LIGHT SHOWERS END,
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. A DECK OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE VCNTY KRDG-
KABE-KFWN WESTWARD AT DAYBREAK SHOULD LIFT AND THIN BY 16Z. MLCAPE
OF 300-700J, NOT TOO SHABBY FOR OCTOBER, COMBINED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SET OFF AROUND 70 PCT COVERAGE OF
MEASURABLE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
PROBABLY DEPICTED SOON BY THE HRRR AND PREVIOUSLY MODELED BY 12Z/8
SPC WRF AND NOW ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MODELED BY THE 00Z/9 SPC WRF
AND NSSL WRF. BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT BUT STRONG 40 KT WINDS AT
500MB SUGGEST POTENCY. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS REACHES THE
COASTS BY 00Z.
PWAT INCREASING FROM 1" NOW TO 1.6" THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOME
OF THE RAIN WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY.
FCST WILL HAVE CHANCE TSTM HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS TODAY 78 TO 83F NEAR I-95 SEWD WITH SW WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE WATERS EDGE, ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY COUNTY
AND OF COURSE NOT QUITE AS WARM IN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY
NJ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AGAIN NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY WRITTEN THURSDAY
AFD SCENARIO. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS NEAR THE CF AT 8
PM THIS FRIDAY EVENING (MAINLY SE NJ AND THE SRN PORTION OF THE
DELMARVA) SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO SEA ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH CLOUD OVER MAY REMAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE COOLING AND DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS GUSTY TO 20 MPH BECOMING NORTHERLY TOWARD
MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
THE MEAN 500 HPA PATTERN IN D+2 TO D+7 PERIOD FEATURES A RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE MAIN PLAYERS AFFECTING THE
OUTCOME OF THE PATTERN ARE A SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE CARVES
OUT A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST IN THE SATURDAY
THRU TUESDAY PERIOD. MEANWHILE, THE SECOND SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ON TUESDAY, WHILE THE RESULTANT HEIGHT
FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE.
AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT, IT WILL
STALL WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME, THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA, WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THRU SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, PVA
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH IN THE EAST
BECOMES, WHICH AFFECTS THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND JUST HOW FAR
WEST OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS. THIS INTRODUCES EVEN FURTHER
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON THURSDAY.
OVERALL, THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THIS OUTCOME IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY,
OTHERWISE NEAR AVERAGE.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY...A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH MAY
LEAD TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER DELMARVA EARLY, BUT OTHERWISE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED. AFTER A BREEZY START, WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.
ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY MORNING,
WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP AT LEAST INTO THE MID-30S IN
THE VICINITY OF I-80 AND POINTS NORTH. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES,
THIS MAY NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY IN LATER FORECASTS. AFTER A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON SUNDAY, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY, BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU OUR AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST OFFSHORE. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF WHICH THESE TWO FEATURES INTERACT,
WHICH IMPACTS THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF PRECIP. PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, HOWEVER,
IT COULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE IF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS INCORPORATED
INTO THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY,
BUT UNTIL THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS RESOLVED,
THIS IS OUTCOME IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...COMPLEX: E PA TO START VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT
WITH ISOLATED IFR FOG IN THE COUNTRYSIDE BECOMING WIDESPREAD CIGS
AOA 5000 FT BY MORNING WITH A LIGHT BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND.
CIGS AOB 1000 FT MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 11Z VCNTY KRDG AND KABE IN
THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST ADVECTION. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z E PA.
NJ: AREAS OF IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE 04Z AND THAT
MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
AFTER 12Z TODAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LIFT BY 16Z WITH WIDESPREAD
CIGS AOA 4000 FT. GUSTY SW WIND TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO
THE CFP. A 1 HOUR BAND OF BRIEF IFR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS SHOULD
BE DEVELOPING EWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY GUSTS
TO 40 KT NEAR ANY TSTMS.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT OFFSHORE BETWEEN
00Z-02Z/10 WITH VFR CIGS CLEARING TO REVEAL ONLY CIRRUS AFTER 06Z/10.
WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY NW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT, THEN
TURNING NORTHERLY TOWARD 10Z SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINE ALREADY POSTED AND AT 330 AM WILL BE EXTENDED FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
EARLY TODAY...NO SCA. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING.
TODAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND AND SEAS
ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TONIGHT...WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 25 KT, ESPECIALLY NJ WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATLANTIC SEAS 4-5 FT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS,
POSSIBLY REACHING FIVE FEET. THUS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 154A
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK 154A
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
106 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY AND
THEN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH DURING FRIDAY, AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDING ADDING FOG TO
THE MILLVILLE AREA OF SNJ AND LOWERED POPS BY 10 PCT THROUGH 09Z
FRIDAY WHICH REDUCES THE OVERNIGHT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY END THE COUNTRYSIDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND I THINK ALSO REDUCE THE RISK OF THICK FOG.
STILL LOOKING FOR SCT LIGHT SHOWERS TO FORM/DEVELOP ON RADAR OVER
EASTERN PA AROUND 6 AM IN THE INSTABILITY BURST. LIGHT SOUTH WIND
DEVELOPS.
FRIDAY...LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN FCST EXPECTATIONS AS PRESENTED IN
THURSDAY`S AFD`S. AFTER ANY SCT EARLY MORNING LIGHT SHOWERS END,
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. A DECK OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE VCNTY KRDG-
KABE-KFWN WESTWARD AT DAYBREAK SHOULD LIFT AND THIN BY 16Z.
MLCAPE OF 300-700J, NOT TOO SHABBY FOR OCTOBER, COMBINED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SET OFF AROUND 70 PCT COVERAGE OF
MEASURABLE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
PROBABLY DEPICTED SOON BY THE HRRR AND PREVIOUSLY MODELED BY 12Z/8
SPC WRF AND NOW ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MODELED BY THE 00Z/9 SPC WRF
AND NSSL WRF. BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT BUT STRONG 40 KT WINDS AT
500MB SUGGEST POTENCY. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS REACHES THE
COASTS BY 00Z.
PWAT INCREASING FROM 1" NOW TO 1.6" THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOME
OF THE RAIN WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY.
FCST WILL HAVE CHANCE TSTM HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS TODAY NEAR 80F I-95 SEWD WITH SW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE WATERS EDGE, ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY COUNTY
AND OF COURSE NOT QUITE AS WARM IN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY
NJ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AGAIN NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY WRITTEN THURSDAY
AFD SCENARIO. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS NEAR THE CF AT 8
PM THIS FRIDAY EVENING (MAINLY SE NJ AND THE SRN PORTION OF THE
DELMARVA) SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO SEA ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH CLOUD OVER MAY REMAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE COOLING AND DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS GUSTY TO 20 MPH BECOMING NORTHERLY TOWARD
MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
THE MEAN 500 HPA PATTERN IN D+2 TO D+7 PERIOD FEATURES A RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE MAIN PLAYERS AFFECTING THE
OUTCOME OF THE PATTERN ARE A SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE CARVES
OUT A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST IN THE SATURDAY
THRU TUESDAY PERIOD. MEANWHILE, THE SECOND SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ON TUESDAY, WHILE THE RESULTANT HEIGHT
FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE.
AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT, IT WILL
STALL WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME, THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA, WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THRU SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, PVA
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH IN THE EAST
BECOMES, WHICH AFFECTS THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND JUST HOW FAR
WEST OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS. THIS INTRODUCES EVEN FURTHER
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON THURSDAY.
OVERALL, THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THIS OUTCOME IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY,
OTHERWISE NEAR AVERAGE.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY...A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH MAY
LEAD TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER DELMARVA EARLY, BUT OTHERWISE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED. AFTER A BREEZY START, WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.
ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY MORNING,
WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP AT LEAST INTO THE MID-30S IN
THE VICINITY OF I-80 AND POINTS NORTH. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES,
THIS MAY NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY IN LATER FORECASTS. AFTER A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON SUNDAY, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY, BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU OUR AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST OFFSHORE. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF WHICH THESE TWO FEATURES INTERACT,
WHICH IMPACTS THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF PRECIP. PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, HOWEVER,
IT COULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE IF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS INCORPORATED
INTO THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY,
BUT UNTIL THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS RESOLVED,
THIS IS OUTCOME IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...COMPLEX: E PA TO START VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT
WITH ISOLATED IFR FOG IN THE COUNTRYSIDE BECOMING WIDESPREAD CIGS
AOA 5000 FT BY MORNING WITH A LIGHT BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND.
CIGS NEAR 1000 FT MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 11Z VCNTY KRDG AND KABE IN
THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST ADVECTION. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z E PA.
NJ: AREAS OF IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE 04Z AND THAT
MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
AFTER 12Z TODAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LIFT BY 16Z WITH WIDESPREAD
CIGS AOA 4000 FT. GUSTY SW WIND TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO
THE CFP. A 1 HOUR BAND OF BRIEF IFR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS SHOULD
BE DEVELOPING EWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY GUSTS
TO 40 KT NEAR ANY TSTMS.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT OFFSHORE BETWEEN
00Z-02Z/10 WITH VFR CIGS CLEARING TO REVEAL ONLY CIRRUS AFTER 06Z/10.
WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY NW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT, THEN
TURNING NORTHERLY TOWARD 10Z SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINE ALREADY POSTED AND AT 330 AM WILL BE EXTENDED FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
EARLY TODAY...NO SCA. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING.
TODAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND AND SEAS
ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TONIGHT...WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 25 KT, ESPECIALLY NJ WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATLANTIC SEAS 4-5 FT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS,
POSSIBLY REACHING FIVE FEET. THUS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK 107A
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1216 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY TODAY AND
THEN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH DURING FRIDAY, AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BY THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDING ADDING FOG TO
THE MILLVILLE AREA OF SNJ AND LOWERED POPS BY 10 PCT THROUGH 09Z
FRIDAY WHICH REDUCES THE OVERNIGHT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC OF
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY END THE COUNTRYSIDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND I THINK ALSO REDUCE THE RISK OF THICK FOG.
STILL LOOKING FOR SCT LIGHT SHOWERS TO FORM/DEVELOP ON RADAR OVER
EASTERN PA AROUND 6 AM IN THE INSTABILITY BURST. LIGHT SOUTH WIND
DEVELOPS.
FRIDAY...LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN FCST EXPECTATIONS AS PRESENTED IN
THURSDAY`S AFD`S. AFTER ANY SCT EARLY MORNING LIGHT SHOWERS END,
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN. A DECK OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE VCNTY KRDG-
KABE-KFWN WESTWARD AT DAYBREAK SHOULD LIFT AND THIN BY 16Z.
MLCAPE OF 300-700J, NOT TOO SHABBY FOR OCTOBER, COMBINED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD SET OFF AROUND 70 PCT COVERAGE OF
MEASURABLE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
PROBABLY DEPICTED SOON BY THE HRRR AND PREVIOUSLY MODELED BY 12Z/8
SPC WRF AND NOW ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MODELED BY THE 00Z/9 SPC WRF
AND NSSL WRF. BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT BUT STRONG 40 KT WINDS AT
500MB SUGGEST POTENCY. THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS REACHES THE
COASTS BY 00Z.
PWAT INCREASING FROM 1" NOW TO 1.6" THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOME
OF THE RAIN WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY.
FCST WILL HAVE CHANCE TSTM HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
MAX TEMPS TODAY NEAR 80F I-95 SEWD WITH SW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE WATERS EDGE, ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY COUNTY
AND OF COURSE NOT QUITE AS WARM IN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY
NJ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...AGAIN NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY WRITTEN THURSDAY
AFD SCENARIO. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS NEAR THE CF AT 8
PM THIS FRIDAY EVENING (MAINLY SE NJ AND THE SRN PORTION OF THE
DELMARVA) SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO SEA ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH CLOUD OVER MAY REMAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE COOLING AND DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVERNIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS GUSTY TO 20 MPH BECOMING NORTHERLY TOWARD
MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
THE MEAN 500 HPA PATTERN IN D+2 TO D+7 PERIOD FEATURES A RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. THE MAIN PLAYERS AFFECTING THE
OUTCOME OF THE PATTERN ARE A SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE CARVES
OUT A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST IN THE SATURDAY
THRU TUESDAY PERIOD. MEANWHILE, THE SECOND SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES
THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH ON TUESDAY, WHILE THE RESULTANT HEIGHT
FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE.
AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT, IT WILL
STALL WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THAT TIME, THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA, WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THRU SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, PVA
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH IN THE EAST
BECOMES, WHICH AFFECTS THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND JUST HOW FAR
WEST OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS. THIS INTRODUCES EVEN FURTHER
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON THURSDAY.
OVERALL, THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THIS OUTCOME IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY,
OTHERWISE NEAR AVERAGE.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY...A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH MAY
LEAD TO LINGERING CLOUDINESS OVER DELMARVA EARLY, BUT OTHERWISE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED. AFTER A BREEZY START, WINDS VEER TO
THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.
ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY MORNING,
WHICH MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP AT LEAST INTO THE MID-30S IN
THE VICINITY OF I-80 AND POINTS NORTH. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES,
THIS MAY NECESSITATE A FROST ADVISORY IN LATER FORECASTS. AFTER A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON SUNDAY, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY, BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU OUR AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST OFFSHORE. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DEGREE OF WHICH THESE TWO FEATURES INTERACT,
WHICH IMPACTS THE TIMING AND CHANCES OF PRECIP. PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, HOWEVER,
IT COULD BE MORE EXTENSIVE IF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS INCORPORATED
INTO THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY,
BUT UNTIL THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS RESOLVED,
THIS IS OUTCOME IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH ISOLATED IFR FOG IN
THE COUNTRYSIDE BECOMING WIDESPREAD CIGS AOA 5000 FT BY MORNING
WITH A LIGHT BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND. CIGS NEAR 1000 FT MAY
DEVELOP TOWARD 11Z VCNTY KRDG AND KABE IN THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOIST ADVECTION. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z E PA.
AFTER 12Z TODAY...ANY MVFR CIGS E PA WILL LIFT BY 16Z WITH WIDESPREAD
CIGS AOA 4000 FT. GUSTY SW WIND TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON PRIOR TO
THE CFP. A 1 HOUR BAND OF BRIEF IFR SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS SHOULD BE
DEVELOPING EWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY GUSTS TO
40 KT NEAR ANY TSTMS.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT OFFSHORE BETWEEN
00Z-02Z/10 WITH VFR CIGS CLEARING TO REVEAL ONLY CIRRUS AFTER 06Z/10.
WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY NW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT, THEN
TURNING NORTHERLY TOWARD 10Z SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINE ALREADY POSTED AND AT 330 AM WILL BE EXTENDED FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
EARLY TODAY...NO SCA. SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING.
TODAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND AND SEAS
ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FEET DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TONIGHT...WIND SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS 25 KT, ESPECIALLY NJ WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ATLANTIC SEAS 4-5 FT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY... NORTH WINDS ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WHICH WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS,
POSSIBLY REACHING FIVE FEET. THUS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1215A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1215A
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK 1215A
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK 1215A
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
230 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
SMALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST WITH JUST
FINE TUNING OF THE POPS WITH A QUICKER ENDING.
A RIBBON OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE TRUE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EXTENDING FROM AN ELONGATED BUT QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED OVER MUCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. PRESSURE
RISES OF 3-4 MB PER 3HR REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...AN INDICATION OF
THE COLD ADVECTION AND MOMENTUM TO THE FRONT. WITHIN THAT REGIME
STRATOCU IS SPREADING SOUTHEAST. AS WINDS TURN TOWARD DUE NORTH IN
THE PRE-DAWN OR DAYBREAK HOURS THAT SHOULD DRAG THAT CLOUD DECK
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY STILL LOOK TO BE 15-18 DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 6-9 FT WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER WAVES ALONG THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES ON
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY THE HIGHEST ALONG THE INDIANA NEARSHORE. AT
THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING EVEN WITH THE
CURRENT HIGHER LAKE LEVELS...AS THESE FORECAST VALUES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LATE SEPTEMBER EVENTS.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL/NWRN
IN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INCREASING SLWY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. AS OF 1PM CDT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO 2
WHILE TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT UN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F FOR THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA. THE BIGGER
QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING
INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND +12C OVER
THE REGION...WHILE THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS ARND 500 J/KG
OF CAPE INVOF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA/NWRN MO.
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INITIALIZATION AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ON
TRACK...SO...HAVE TRENDED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT STEADILY TRACKS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PCPN REACHING THE RFD AREA BTWN 3-
5PM AND THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA ARND 5-6PM WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN OF ARND 1 TO 2
HRS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO...POSSIBLY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLD
SHRA. AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...GIVING THE LIMITED DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AND NO REASON TO SEE WHY THERE WOULD BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT TS WITH THE
SHRA...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SOME TS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING
WILL BE LOCATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN
INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 05-06Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME TRAILING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY DURG THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VEER TO NLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 3 MB/3 HR AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE TRUE COOLER AIR WILL NOT
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL WARMING WILL BE
LESS THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FOR COMPARISON...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORNING LOW
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ARND 30 DEGREES...WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES AT
THE MOST.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
233 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A GOOD WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SATURDAY...AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...AS THIS
SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTS ITSELF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 925 AND 850 MB ARE PROGGED
TO REACH UP AROUND 18-19 DEGREES C AND 15-16 DEGREES C BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
A EVEN A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SHIFT OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY
MONDAY...AND AS IT DOES SO...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE DECENTLY MILD ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE COOLER AIRMASS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN REACH INTO THE 70S...BEFORE CONDITIONS COOL DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...BUT SEASONAL AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 8Z...THEN LINGERING THRU LATE
AFTERNOON.
* NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASE...SPEEDS BETWEEN
10-14KT AND GUSTS UP TO 24KT AT TIMES LATE MORNING.
* WINDS TURN NORTHEAST 010-030 DEG DIRECTION ARND 00Z OR SHORTLY
AFTER AND SPEEDS DIMINISH.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS CONSIDERABLE HIGH BASED
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST...AND TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST. UPSTREAM
ACROSS WISCONSIN SFC OBS INDICATE A SHIELD OF STRATUS LAYER
CLOUDS...AND THAT IS WORKING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN IL
TAF SITES. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO BRING MVFR CIGS INTO RFD THE
EARLIEST...THEN ARND 8Z CIGS ARND 3KFT AGL WILL ARRIVE AT
ORD/MDW/DPA. THEN EVENTUALLY REACH GYY ARND 9Z. ONCE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP THERE MAY BE A POCKET OF SOME BASES THAT DIP TO BETWEEN
1000-1500FT AGL...THEN WITH COLD/DRY AIR WORKING IN AFTER DAYBREAK
A BASE ARND 3000-3500FT AGL WILL EVOLVE AND LINGER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MIXING AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS BY EARLY MORNING
REACHING 10-14KT AND A FEW GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS...THEN BY
MID-MORNING SPEEDS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 12-15KT AND GUSTS MAY
INCREASE TO ARND 20-24KT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEEDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS
DEVELOPING AND IN TIMING OF GUSTS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS...AND IN DURATION.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... VFR. BREEZY SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS TURNING BREEZY NW.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BREEZY NW.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
228 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE HURON AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY LATE
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN...BRINGING A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE
AND WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST TO NORTH. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE LATER TODAY...HOWEVER BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES.
CURRENT GUIDANCE IS INDICATING GUSTS TO APPROACH 30KT AT TIMES FOR
THE OPEN WATERS AND ALSO PORTIONS OF THE IL/IN NEARSHORE...MAINLY
FOCUSED AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. WIND
DIRECTION MAY LINGER MORE FROM A 340-350 DIRECTION...WHICH WOULD
LIKELY ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD MORE FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN OPEN WATERS. BUT IF WINDS CAN TURN
TO A 360-020 DIRECTION...THEN WAVES WOULD ALSO BUILD FOR THE
ILLINOIS SHORE. WAVES MAY APPROACH 8-10FT IN THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
NEARSHORE WATERS LATER TODAY...AND DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVERHEAD...THE COOLER AIR MAY HELP MAINTAIN LARGER WAVES A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTHWEST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT RETURNS AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD FOR THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO 30KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A FEW GALES
MAY OCCUR AS WELL. PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...A COLD
FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW MOVING FROM CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE HUDSON BAY...WILL SHIFT OVER THE LAKE. A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY MONDAY EVENING.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1251 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...859 PM CDT
SMALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST WITH JUST
FINE TUNING OF THE POPS WITH A QUICKER ENDING.
A RIBBON OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE TRUE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EXTENDING FROM AN ELONGATED BUT QUICK
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED OVER MUCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. PRESSURE
RISES OF 3-4 MB PER 3HR REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...AN INDICATION OF
THE COLD ADVECTION AND MOMENTUM TO THE FRONT. WITHIN THAT REGIME
STRATOCU IS SPREADING SOUTHEAST. AS WINDS TURN TOWARD DUE NORTH IN
THE PRE-DAWN OR DAYBREAK HOURS THAT SHOULD DRAG THAT CLOUD DECK
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY STILL LOOK TO BE 15-18 DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WAVES TO 6-9 FT WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER WAVES ALONG THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORES ON
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY THE HIGHEST ALONG THE INDIANA NEARSHORE. AT
THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MINOR LAKESHORE FLOODING EVEN WITH THE
CURRENT HIGHER LAKE LEVELS...AS THESE FORECAST VALUES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LATE SEPTEMBER EVENTS.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL/NWRN
IN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INCREASING SLWY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. AS OF 1PM CDT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO 2
WHILE TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT UN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F FOR THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA. THE BIGGER
QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING
INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND +12C OVER
THE REGION...WHILE THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS ARND 500 J/KG
OF CAPE INVOF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA/NWRN MO.
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INITIALIZATION AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ON
TRACK...SO...HAVE TRENDED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT STEADILY TRACKS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PCPN REACHING THE RFD AREA BTWN 3-
5PM AND THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA ARND 5-6PM WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN OF ARND 1 TO 2
HRS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO...POSSIBLY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLD
SHRA. AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...GIVING THE LIMITED DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AND NO REASON TO SEE WHY THERE WOULD BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT TS WITH THE
SHRA...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SOME TS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING
WILL BE LOCATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN
INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 05-06Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME TRAILING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY DURG THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VEER TO NLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 3 MB/3 HR AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE TRUE COOLER AIR WILL NOT
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL WARMING WILL BE
LESS THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FOR COMPARISON...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORNING LOW
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ARND 30 DEGREES...WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES AT
THE MOST.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
233 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A GOOD WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SATURDAY...AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...AS THIS
SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTS ITSELF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 925 AND 850 MB ARE PROGGED
TO REACH UP AROUND 18-19 DEGREES C AND 15-16 DEGREES C BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
A EVEN A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SHIFT OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY
MONDAY...AND AS IT DOES SO...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE DECENTLY MILD ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE COOLER AIRMASS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN REACH INTO THE 70S...BEFORE CONDITIONS COOL DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...BUT SEASONAL AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY 8Z...THEN LINGERING THRU LATE
AFTERNOON.
* NORTHWEST WINDS TURNING NORTH AND INCREASE...SPEEDS BETWEEN
10-14KT AND GUSTS UP TO 24KT AT TIMES LATE MORNING.
* WINDS TURN NORTHEAST 010-030 DEG DIRECTION ARND 00Z OR SHORTLY
AFTER AND SPEEDS DIMINISH.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS CONSIDERABLE HIGH BASED
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST...AND TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST. UPSTREAM
ACROSS WISCONSIN SFC OBS INDICATE A SHIELD OF STRATUS LAYER
CLOUDS...AND THAT IS WORKING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN IL
TAF SITES. GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO BRING MVFR CIGS INTO RFD THE
EARLIEST...THEN ARND 8Z CIGS ARND 3KFT AGL WILL ARRIVE AT
ORD/MDW/DPA. THEN EVENTUALLY REACH GYY ARND 9Z. ONCE MVFR CIGS
DEVELOP THERE MAY BE A POCKET OF SOME BASES THAT DIP TO BETWEEN
1000-1500FT AGL...THEN WITH COLD/DRY AIR WORKING IN AFTER DAYBREAK
A BASE ARND 3000-3500FT AGL WILL EVOLVE AND LINGER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MIXING AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS BY EARLY MORNING
REACHING 10-14KT AND A FEW GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS...THEN BY
MID-MORNING SPEEDS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 12-15KT AND GUSTS MAY
INCREASE TO ARND 20-24KT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEEDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS
DEVELOPING AND IN TIMING OF GUSTS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS...AND IN DURATION.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... VFR. BREEZY SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS TURNING BREEZY NW.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BREEZY NW.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
312 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW.
OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE LAKE LATTER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. WITH THESE STRONG
WINDS...EXPECT WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO INCREASE UP
CLOSE TO 10 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD...COVING
THIS PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES WELL THROUGH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 30 KT APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD BET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...A
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW MOVING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE HUDSON BAY...WILL SHIFT OVER THE LAKE. A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY MONDAY EVENING.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING AND DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. AFTER THAT...DRY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS BROKE APART AND DISSIPATED BEFORE
IT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AND
AMOUNTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK...AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
POISED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND ABOUT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE RAPID
REFRESH WHICH IS PROJECTING A LINE OF PRECIPITATION FULLY DEVELOPING
AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INDIANA...THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE WITH RESPECT TO POPS. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT CHANCES WEAK...WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM...POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE HRRR THUS FAR AND
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONGST THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE THAT
LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THERE WILL BE WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE THEREFORE UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS SLIGHTLY FOR
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S (ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES) TO NEAR 70S (FAR SOUTHEAST).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A VERY DRY
COLUMN...ALONG WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS THROUGH
SUNDAY. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE ON THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND HAVE THUS TRENDED HIGHS ON SATURDAY TOWARD THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MAVMOS. IF THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH OR
CALM...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ALSO TRENDED LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BELOW MAVMOS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FULL
SUN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AS WELL AS DECENT SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW.
WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN MEXMOS DURING THIS TIME FOR HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND MONDAY...WITH FAIRLY FLAT WEST TO NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SMALL PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER THAT...SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE. APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
KIND VICINITY AROUND SUNRISE. WILL PUSH BACK THE TIMING OF THE
WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND
ALSO PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOWER MVFR CEILINGS BY SEVERAL
HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TOWARD AND AFTER 12Z AND IMPROVING BACK TO VFR 16Z-19Z. SHOULD
THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES BY OR SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z.
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EAST OF LAF AND HUF AT ISSUANCE TIME AND BE IN THE
VICINITY OF IND AND BMG. WITH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHTNING COVERAGE NOT
GREAT DUE TO ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WILL JUST GO WITH 2
HOUR TEMPO MVFR SHOWER GROUP ALONG WITH VCTS AT THE START OF THE
TAF. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH HUF AROUND 08Z...IND AROUND 09Z AND BMG
AROUND 11Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 3 TO 7 KNOTS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT AND INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR MORE WITH MINOR GUSTS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
304 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING AND DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. AFTER THAT...DRY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS BROKE APART AND DISSIPATED BEFORE
IT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AND
AMOUNTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK...AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
POISED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND ABOUT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE RAPID
REFRESH WHICH IS PROJECTING A LINE OF PRECIPITATION FULLY DEVELOPING
AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INDIANA...THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE WITH RESPECT TO POPS. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT CHANCES WEAK...WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM...POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE HRRR THUS FAR AND
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONGST THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE THAT
LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THERE WILL BE WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE THEREFORE UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS SLIGHTLY FOR
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S (ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES) TO NEAR 70S (FAR SOUTHEAST).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A VERY DRY
COLUMN...ALONG WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS THROUGH
SUNDAY. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE ON THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND HAVE THUS TRENDED HIGHS ON SATURDAY TOWARD THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MAVMOS. IF THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH OR
CALM...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ALSO TRENDED LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BELOW MAVMOS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FULL
SUN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AS WELL AS DECENT SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW.
WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN MEXMOS DURING THIS TIME FOR HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND MONDAY...WITH FAIRLY FLAT WEST TO NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SMALL PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER THAT...SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE WAKE OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TOWARD AND AFTER 12Z AND IMPROVING BACK TO VFR 16Z-19Z. SHOULD
THEN SEE CLEAR SKIES BY OR SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z.
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE EAST OF LAF AND HUF AT ISSUANCE TIME AND BE IN THE
VICINITY OF IND AND BMG. WITH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHTNING COVERAGE NOT
GREAT DUE TO ONLY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WILL JUST GO WITH 2
HOUR TEMPO MVFR SHOWER GROUP ALONG WITH VCTS AT THE START OF THE
TAF. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH HUF AROUND 08Z...IND AROUND 09Z AND BMG
AROUND 11Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 3 TO 7 KNOTS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT AND INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR MORE WITH MINOR GUSTS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
325 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Upper trough axis was moving into eastern Kansas from the northwest
early this morning, with regional radar and surface observations
putting cold front through northern Oklahoma at 08Z. Bands of
showers wear ahead of the trough, with measurable amounts on the
northwest edge hard to come by. Trends put the axis into the far
southern counties at 12Z and will carry a few hours of sprinkles
here. Satellite imagery showing a few other items of interest,
including widespread stratus from northeastern Nebraska east across
much of Iowa and north into Minnesota with high cloud spilling
southwest out of the northern Rockies.
Though somewhat overdone, the latest RAP runs seem to have the best
handle on the stratus to the north/northeast and keep it together
through the morning as north winds usher it south. Given shallow
nature of cold air, think it is a little too pessimistic on the
cloud. Highs will still struggle into the 65-70 range even in good
insolation with 850mb temps 6-8C colder than Thursday. High cloud
should be entering north central Kansas late in the day and continue
southeast overnight. Surface ridge axis will passing through the
area at the same time, so amount/persistence of cirrus and stratus
will be large players in fog potential. At this point there appears
to be enough of a chance for patchy wording in eastern areas,
nearer the ridge and any higher moisture from stratus.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Saturday high temperatures warm back up into the 70s as shortwave
ridge begins to build overhead behind departing trof. This is
amplified Saturday night into Sunday, and lows Saturday night may
be underforecast in the middle to upper 50s as southerly winds and
warm air advection aloft ramp up overnight. As the mid level
thermal ridge approaches from the north on Sunday ahead of the
next front, highs are expected to mix into mid to upper 80s, with
even some low 90s possible.
Front consistently forecast to move through on Sunday night into
Monday morning, bringing cooler temperatures on Monday with highs
in the mid 70s, and could see falling temperatures through the
day. Lows drop back into the 40s on Monday night.
West northwesterly flow remains across the northern into central
plains through the late week, with periodic frontal boundaries
coming southward in the flow. Highs in the 70s with lows in the
50s, with next chance for rain possibly coming toward the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
A band of scattered showers will move across TAF sites before 10Z,
lasting about 2 hours of off-and-on precip at each site. Even with
showers, expect primarily VFR conditions. Skies clear out by
sunrise with northerly winds continuing through the day.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
315 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON ITS TREK EAST. A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTHWEST FROM THIS
LOW AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO POP UP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS ARE TAKING SHAPE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUD COVER. THEY ARE
FEEDING ON RELATIVELY ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
CWA. LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS AND ROVING SHOWERS TO HELP STIR THE AIR
AND MITIGATE OUR CURRENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. THE
MOST SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
WHILE RIDGES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. WINDS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY TAKE A DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY TO END THE WORK WEEK AND START THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST
ECMWF AND NAM12 ARE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE CLUSTERING WITH
THE CORE OF THIS WAVE BUT STILL REASONABLE. THIS TROUGH AND ITS
ENERGY DIVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WITH
HEIGHTS REBOUNDING BY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
FOR DETAILS WITH THIS FROPA EVENT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AROUND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY FROM
THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
LIMITED BY THE MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DESPITE DECENT
DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOME WIND SHEAR ALOFT...AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS... IN ADDITION TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. THE INSTABILITY
WANES DURING THE EVENING WITH THUNDER MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT. POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AND
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR
HIGHS COMPARED TO THURSDAY AND TODAY.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
SATURDAY. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNED ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS MORNING/S
LOW TEMPERATURES AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR
TO CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
THE PERIOD WILL BEING WITH A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION
AND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTED
TROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE WEATHER PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK
WILL FEATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE COLD...WITH READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND 50
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE
EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THIS BOUT OF RAIN WOULD BE
TRIGGERED BY SLOW AND WEAKENING EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ONCE
THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...WE SHOULD SEE OTHERWISE DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
CLOUDS ARE THICKENING UP OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE SEEN...ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO POP UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW AS THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THROUGH DAWN.
AFTER 15Z...MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AS THE
CLOUDS LOWER AND SHOWERS MORE EFFECTIVELY DEVELOP. BY MIDDAY...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA.
THE RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE FROM
ANY STORM. IN A THUNDERSTORM...CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FALL TO
IFR OR BELOW FOR A SHORT TIME. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO 10
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO
WEST/NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS POST FROPA.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1248 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...DRAWING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE: IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE BAND OF
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA W/THE BEST ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. SOME CLEARING COULD BE SEEN BACK ACROSS
QUEBEC. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM MODEL WAS DOING QUITE WELL
W/THE CLOUDS AND SHOWED SOME CLEARING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS ARRIVE
AHEAD OF THE LOW. TEMPS WERE DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS NW
AREAS W/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS NE AND FURTHER S. TEMPS
COULD ACTUALLY FALL BACK FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE LEVELING OFF
W/THAT CLEARING MENTIONED ABOVE. THEREFORE, ADJUSTED THE HRLY
TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING AND MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
OVERNIGHT MINS. TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE RAIN BACK A FEW HRS FROM
EARLIER THINKING BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND HRRR TIMING.
ORGNL DISC: CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES ARE STREAMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL LIMIT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING, IN SPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. HAVE
THEREFORE GONE TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT`S
LOW TEMPERATURES; LOWER/MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S SOUTH. HOWEVER, COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD ANY
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD DECK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN SECTIONS BY 8 AM,
EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR EASTERN BORDER BY NOONTIME. THE LOW WILL BE
DEEPENING AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE, ALONG WITH A 50+KT LOW-
LEVEL JET. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD LIFT AND UPSLOPE INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE THERE AS WELL WITH PWATS OF
1.25 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. HAVE THEREFORE
INCREASED EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TOMORROW, WITH AREAS FROM
HOULTON AND GREENVILLE SOUTH TO SEE A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. NORTH OF THIS LINE, RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO A HALF
AN INCH. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S IN THE NORTHERN AREAS, WHILE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST LOCATIONS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE
AN UPPER TROF CROSSES THE REGION. RAIN WILL DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN DECREASE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES NORTHERN
AREAS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COULD ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...THOUGH MIXED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. PARTLY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING
BRINGING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AS
WARMER AIR FOLLOWS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MONDAY WILL BE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COMBINED WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. AN OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL THEN APPROACH EARLY TUESDAY POSSIBLY FORMING A SMALL
SECONDARY LOW NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO
MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SMALL OCCLUSION QUICKLY APPROACHING
IN OUR FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THEY
WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CEILINGS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE
REGION AFTER 12Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TO 00Z
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY AT KBGR AND KBHB.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS; GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE
EXPECTED. SEAS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, BUILDING TO 5-6 FEET BY
MID AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES
COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
403 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
RELATIVELY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD. INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN
THIS MORNING IS DEALING WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR HAS PERFORMED WELL IN HANDLING
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...INDICATING LAST EVENING THAT A HOLE WOULD
BE BLOWN OPEN IN THE CLOUD DECK FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
WESTERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HENCE...INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS MORNING OUT WEST AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER THERE CONTINUES TO
HOLD STRONG. THE EXPECTATION WITH THE CLOUD COVER IS THAT THE DRY
WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST...AND THE CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN MN WILL DO THE SAME...SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN MN THIS MORNING. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DRYING CONDITIONS AND ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL
DIMINISH THE CLOUD DECK...EXPECT IT TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS AND COME CLOUD
COVER DURING THE DAY...HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE UPPER 50S FOR
MOST...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW 60S IN FAR WESTERN MN.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING...SO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE HIGH WILL DEPART THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE`LL
SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
RATHER FEW ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN THIS EXTENDED FCST PKG.
SFC HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER THE GRT LKS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS WHILE A LARGE SFC RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WARMING OVER THE UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO STRONG SWLY SFC FLOW AND INCRD H5 HEIGHTS TO
THE 576-579 DAM RANGE. H85 TEMPS WILL INCRS TO ARND 20 DEG C BY
SUN...AND THIS WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
ATOP THE REGION. THUS...SUNDAY HAS POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MULTIPLE SITES WITHIN THE WFO MPX CWFA. MIXING STILL DOES NOT LOOK
AS OPTIMIZED AS POSSIBLE DUE TO A SLIGHT RELAXING OF THE WIND
FIELDS...THUS TEMPS MAY FALL JUST SHORT BUT STILL HIT THE LWR 80S
FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA.
AN APPROACHING CDFNT FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL BRING A SHARP
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES GOING INTO MON TO THE TUNE OF 15-20
DEGREES COOLER CWFA-WIDE. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FROPA...SO HAVE CONFINED ONLY SLGT CHC POPS TO THE NRN
AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA FOR DURG THE DAY ON MON. HOWEVER...A
VERY TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ALONG WITH VORTICITY PACKING WITH THE
FROPA WILL MEAN A STRONG INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FOR MONDAY...
POSSIBLY TO WIND ADVY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE MODELS
DEVELOP THIS SCHEME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEYOND MON...THE FCST REMAINS DRY WITH COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTH HAS HELPED RAISE
CEILINGS TO AROUND 030-035 LATE THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE. WITH THE INCOMING RIDGE FROM
THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...IT/S LIKELY THAT THE CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MN. AN
EXCEPTION IS ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI WHERE SOME CLEARING
MAY WORK IN LATE TONIGHT FROM KDLH. TOUGH CALL ON FRIDAY WITH A
NEGATIVE CU RULE FORECAST BY THE NAM AND RAP. THEREFORE KEPT BKN
VFR CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GOING SCATTERED IN
THE AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-8 KNOTS FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN BACKING TO
THE SSW BY FRIDAY EVENING.
KMSP...CEILING SHOULD BECOME OVC035 BY 08Z IF NOT SOONER.
BKN035-040 EXPECTED IN THE MORNING WITH SCT040 IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS SIMILAR TO THOSE DESCRIBED ABOVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SSW 15-20G25 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 20-25G30 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1142 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE PCPN CHANCES FOR
TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONGEST 500 MB 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 12Z WERE CENTERED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RADAR ECHOES OUT OF A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK SPREADING SEWD.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP13 MODEL RUNS SHOW LIGHT PCPN SPREADING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. THINK
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...0.02 INCHES OR LESS AT MOST SPOTS...
BUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO JUST GO WITH
AREAL COVERAGE WORDING. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO END AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT EXIT THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY UP OVER MN
AND THE ERN DKTS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO IA AND PARTS OF ERN NE
LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
WE EXPECT A MODERATELY THICK AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. LOOK FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID
OR UPPER 60S...BUT SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE IN WRN IOWA.
RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMP PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS 75 TO
80 IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND LOWER 80S WEST. THERE ARE HINTS THAT
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY MORNING SO
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THAT POTENTIAL. BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT FOR
SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE MOVING IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE SEEMS
LIMITED AT THIS POINT SO KEPT POPS BELOW 10 PERCENT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS PERIOD MAINLY DRY. A FAIRLY STRONG PUSH
OF COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S FOR MONDAY. FAIRLY FAST W/NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW...BUT THESE
SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH PCPN. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OFF THE BAJA
COAST MOVING UP TO CA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOCALLY...HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A DECK OF MVFR CIGS
MAY FILL INTO THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER
INCLUDED A MENTION OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AT OMAHA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...KG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
152 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION AND BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. SHOWERS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER AIR BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT A CHILLY BUT DRY SATURDAY...BEFORE
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST... WITH THE MAIN THEME
BEING AN OVERALL SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. THIS
MEANS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
RAPIDLY ENDING BEFORE LUNCH TIME FRIDAY. RAIN WILL LINGER LONGEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER / FINGER LAKES BUT WILL TAPER OFF TO MAINLY
JUST LIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER LUNCH TIME.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY WILL TRACK
EASTWARD...PASSING JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS A
SLUG OF STEADY RAIN WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN MICHIGAN INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO LATE THIS EVENING. THIS AREA EXTENDS ALONG AN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UNDERNEATH THE NOSE OF A LLJ AVERAGING 40
KTS.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL CONSENSUS CAPTURES THIS WELL...WITH RECENT
RUNS OF THE NAM/GEM/GFS/HRRR IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THIS AREA
TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. RADAR
TRENDS AND MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORT HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE...WITH
A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN AND A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH THIS.
SOUTH OF THIS IS A MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN AREA OF SHOWERS. THIS
IS BEST CAPTURED BY THE HRRR...WITH THIS AREA SET TO BRING SOME
RAIN TO THE LAKE PLAINS FROM 11PM TO 4AM. THERE ARE SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN THIS...AND WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM. SOUTH OF THIS SHOULD STAY DRY
UNTIL THE FRONT COMES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT. THE 00Z NAM AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THIS FRONT AND AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THERE IS STILL GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO ALL AREAS LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A MILD OCTOBER NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW WILL BE DEEPENING...IT WILL ONLY DO SO A FEW MB...AND LACKING
ANY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WE SHOULD ONLY SEE A MODEST INCREASE
IN WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...UPWARDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH. CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW LINGERS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION
WHERE SOME POSSIBLE LATE DAY SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD SATURDAY...LEADING TO QUIET
AND COOL CONDITIONS. HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 50S...
DESPITE A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW AND SIMPLE AIRMASS
MODIFICATION ALLOWING HIGHS TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...ALBEIT AN INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER CANADA WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY...AS WE BECOME
POSITIONED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE AS IT SINKS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN ARMER AIR AND
INCREASE MIXING...PUSHING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S...PERHAPS EVEN WARMER.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN LOW WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
WILL REMAIN LIMITED...THE DEGREE OF DYNAMICS SUPPORTS ONGOING SHOWER
MENTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NEXT WAVE AND ATTENDANT SHOWER CHANCES
RETURNING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH A DEVELOPING SSW
FLOW DOWNSLOPING SHOULD HELP KEEP CIGS IN THE VFR OR MVFR CATEGORY.
A 40 KT LLJ WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL LLWS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ANY WOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE.
THE LOWEST CIGS/VSBY SHOULD COME RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH IFR
CIGS/VSBY LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER THIS EXPECT RAIN TO END FROM W-E AND A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. IFR CIGS MAY LINGER
BEHIND THE FRONT IN SOME LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR CIGS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CREATING MVFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR LAKE ERIE AND THE UPPER
NIAGARA RIVER. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY REACH
20 KNOTS OR SO ON LAKE ERIE...WHICH WILL ALSO GENERATE WAVES NEAR
4 FEET. THERE MAY BE A TIME EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF NON-SCA
CONDITIONS AS WINDS SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WITH WINDS
AGAIN INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM
EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/CHURCH
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A Cold front is expected to move into Northeast Oklahoma late
tonight and push southeast through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas Friday morning. Precip chances will remain possible along
and behind the front and should tapper off by Friday afternoon
from north to south. VFR Conditions should continue through the
TAF Period with northerly winds behind the front and clearing
skies late in the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
Delayed the onset of pops and lowered pops a bit for the remainder
of the night based on current radar and HRRR output. Could see
some spotty gusty winds with this activity...but significant
severe weather is not expected.
Updated products are on the way.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 59 76 48 78 / 50 40 0 0
FSM 64 79 49 80 / 20 20 10 0
MLC 62 77 49 80 / 20 30 0 0
BVO 57 76 43 78 / 60 40 0 0
FYV 55 71 42 75 / 20 30 0 0
BYV 56 70 46 73 / 30 40 0 0
MKO 61 76 47 79 / 30 40 0 0
MIO 57 73 44 76 / 60 50 0 0
F10 61 75 50 78 / 30 30 0 0
HHW 64 86 55 84 / 10 20 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
555 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY. RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN AND RETURN
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM...
A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS MOVING
THRU THE NWRN COS AT THIS TIME. SEE NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING LIKE THE
HRRR AND RAP SHOW. THEY ARE HANDLING THIS CONVECTION RATHER POORLY
AT THIS POINT. THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL PRETTY LOW FOR SUSTAINING
SHOWERS/STORMS. BUT WILL HANG WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND
CONTINUE TO PRESS THESE SHOWERS THROUGH ALL THE NRN MTNS INTO
SUNRISE. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS JUST PASSING THRU DETROIT.
TIMING IS RIGHT ON FOR THE FRONT...BUT THE SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED/SIGNIFICANT THAN EARLIER THINKING. HAVE UPPED POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS AND ADJUSTED THEM FOR A BRIEF BREAK AFTER
THESE SHOWERS MOVE EAST OUT OF WARREN/MCKEAN COS.
PREV...
FIRST OF A FEW LINES OF SCT SHOWERS NOW STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN TIER. PRECIP VERY LIGHT AND MOVING QUICKLY WILL KEEP POPS
LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BUT RAMP THEM UP AFTER SUNRISE. COLD
FRONT NOT QUITE THRU SAGINAW BAY AND THE PRECIP IS MAINLY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AT THIS POINT. TIMING IS PRETTY SOLID
AMONGST ALL GUIDANCE WITH COLD FRONT PASSING THRU BFD BY 15Z AND
LNS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. TIMING OF BEST FORCING/LIFT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS 40+
KTS DURING THAT TIME /PEAK HEATING/...BUT MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS BELOW 60F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SPC HAS
PLACED THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK...AND IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED EVER SO SLIGHTLY FROM THE DY2 OUTLOOK. WILL CARRY THE
CATG SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA BEFORE FROPA. QPF IS LOW PROBABLY DUE
TO THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS. A FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS OR
BOWS MAY APPEAR WITH ONLY A LITTLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT. WHILE NWRN
SITES WILL CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY AFTER FROPA...LOW CLOUDS RETURN
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRONT AND ASSOCD PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. BUT A
FEW SHRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE LAURELS AND NRN TIER EARLY
TONIGHT. CAA OF 10C AT 8H OCCURS BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE NRN TIER WITH +1C ALONG THE NY BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. 8H
TEMPS DO REBOUND A FEW BY MORNING...BUT A COOL N WIND WILL TRY TO
HINDER HEATING SAT MORNING. MINS TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT 40-45F. LNS PROBABLY WON/T TOUCH THE
40S. SFC RIDGE AXIS GETS OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY ON SAT...SO THE WIND DIES OFF AND CLOUDS WILL BE SCT/BKN
AT WORST. THE HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO THE M50S-M60S
WHICH ARE 3-4 DEGS BELOW NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER
PATTERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE MIDWEEK.
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST/SW SUN INTO MON...BRINGING WARMER
AIR BACK IN WITH READINGS BY MON BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S.
AFTER THAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL DEPICT
A LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARD AND ERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE PAC NW HAS TRENDED SHARPER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE OH
VALLEY BY 00Z TUESDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT PLACES PEAK RAIN SHOWER RISK IN THE LATE DAY 5/MON INTO DAY
6/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. MSTR LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE EAST COAST DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD THE FRONT SPEED UP MORE. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER NW FLOW DOMINATES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL OF LOW
CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE ARND
DAWN. DWPT DEPRESSIONS AT KMDT/KLNS ARE VERY LOW AT 09Z AND CONDS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING THRU
DAWN...LIKELY LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF FOG. LATEST LAMP
GUIDANCE...IN ADDITION TO HRRR AND DOWNSCALED NAM...SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KMDT/KLNS ARND
DAWN. FURTHER WEST...A SW BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF
FOG. HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A MVFR CIG IS LIKELY AT
KBFD BY ARND DAWN...CAUSED BY AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW
ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW PA.
ANY EARLY FOG/LOW CIGS ACROSS EASTERN PA SHOULD LIFT BY ARND 13Z-14Z.
FOCUS THEN WILL SHIFT TOWARD A COLD FRONT PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
STATE. MDL DATA IMPLIES A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KBFD BTWN 15Z-18Z...CAUSED BY EITHER FRONTAL SHOWERS OR LOWERING
CIGS ASSOC WITH MOIST SW FLOW. ELSEWHERE...EFFECTS OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PERHAPS A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION
WITH A PASSING SHRA/TSRA. MDL TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THE BEST
CHC OF A SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ARND 15Z AT KBFD...ARND 18Z AT
KJST/KAOO/KUNV...ARND 19Z AT KIPT AND ARND 20Z-21Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...AS DRIER NW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS COULD CAUSE MVFR
CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT KBFD/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
452 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY. RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN AND RETURN
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM...
A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS MOVING
THRU THE NWRN COS AT THIS TIME. SEE NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING LIKE THE
HRRR AND RAP SHOW. THEY ARE HANDLING THIS CONVECTION RATHER POORLY
AT THIS POINT. THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL PRETTY LOW FOR SUSTAINING
SHOWERS/STORMS. BUT WILL HANG WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND
CONTINUE TO PRESS THESE SHOWERS THROUGH ALL THE NRN MTNS INTO
SUNRISE. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS JUST PASSING THRU DETROIT.
TIMING IS RIGHT ON FOR THE FRONT...BUT THE SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED/SIGNIFICANT THAN EARLIER THINKING. HAVE UPPED POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS AND ADJUSTED THEM FOR A BRIEF BREAK AFTER
THESE SHOWERS MOVE EAST OUT OF WARREN/MCKEAN COS.
PREV...
FIRST OF A FEW LINES OF SCT SHOWERS NOW STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN TIER. PRECIP VERY LIGHT AND MOVING QUICKLY WILL KEEP POPS
LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BUT RAMP THEM UP AFTER SUNRISE. COLD
FRONT NOT QUITE THRU SAGINAW BAY AND THE PRECIP IS MAINLY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AT THIS POINT. TIMING IS PRETTY SOLID
AMONGST ALL GUIDANCE WITH COLD FRONT PASSING THRU BFD BY 15Z AND
LNS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. TIMING OF BEST FORCING/LIFT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS 40+
KTS DURING THAT TIME /PEAK HEATING/...BUT MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS BELOW 60F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SPC HAS
PLACED THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK...AND IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED EVER SO SLIGHTLY FROM THE DY2 OUTLOOK. WILL CARRY THE
CATG SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA BEFORE FROPA. QPF IS LOW PROBABLY DUE
TO THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS. A FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS OR
BOWS MAY APPEAR WITH ONLY A LITTLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT. WHILE NWRN
SITES WILL CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY AFTER FROPA...LOW CLOUDS RETURN
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRONT AND ASSOCD PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. BUT A
FEW SHRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE LAURELS AND NRN TIER EARLY
TONIGHT. CAA OF 10C AT 8H OCCURS BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE NRN TIER WITH +1C ALONG THE NY BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. 8H
TEMPS DO REBOUND A FEW BY MORNING...BUT A COOL N WIND WILL TRY TO
HINDER HEATING SAT MORNING. MINS TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT 40-45F. LNS PROBABLY WON/T TOUCH THE
40S. SFC RIDGE AXIS GETS OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY ON SAT...SO THE WIND DIES OFF AND CLOUDS WILL BE SCT/BKN
AT WORST. THE HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO THE M50S-M60S
WHICH ARE 3-4 DEGS BELOW NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER
PATTERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE MIDWEEK.
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST/SW SUN INTO MON...BRINGING WARMER
AIR BACK IN WITH READINGS BY MON BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S.
AFTER THAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL DEPICT
A LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARD AND ERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE PAC NW HAS TRENDED SHARPER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE OH
VALLEY BY 00Z TUESDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT PLACES PEAK RAIN SHOWER RISK IN THE LATE DAY 5/MON INTO DAY
6/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. MSTR LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE EAST COAST DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD THE FRONT SPEED UP MORE. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER NW FLOW DOMINATES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL OF LOW
CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE ARND
DAWN. DWPT DEPRESSIONS AT KMDT/KLNS ARE DOWN TO 3F AT 05Z AND
CONDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING THRU
DAWN...LIKELY LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF FOG. LATEST LAMP
GUIDANCE...IN ADDITION TO HRRR AND DOWNSCALED NAM...SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KIPT/KMDT/KLNS ARND DAWN.
FURTHER WEST...A SW BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF FOG.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A MVFR CIG IS LIKELY AT KBFD
BY ARND DAWN...CAUSED BY AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW ASCENDING
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW PA.
ANY EARLY FOG/LOW CIGS ACROSS EASTERN PA SHOULD LIFT BY ARND 13Z-14Z.
FOCUS THEN WILL SHIFT TOWARD A COLD FRONT PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
STATE. MDL DATA IMPLIES A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KBFD BTWN 15Z-18Z...CAUSED BY EITHER FRONTAL SHOWERS OR LOWERING
CIGS ASSOC WITH MOIST SW FLOW. ELSEWHERE...EFFECTS OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PERHAPS A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION
WITH A PASSING SHRA/TSRA. MDL TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THE BEST
CHC OF A SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ARND 15Z AT KBFD...ARND 18Z AT
KJST/KAOO/KUNV...ARND 19Z AT KIPT AND ARND 20Z-21Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...AS DRIER NW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS COULD CAUSE MVFR
CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT KBFD/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
250 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY. RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN AND RETURN
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FIRST OF A FEW LINES OF SCT SHOWERS NOW STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN TIER. PRECIP VERY LIGHT AND MOVING QUICKLY WILL KEEP POPS
LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BUT RAMP THEM UP AFTER SUNRISE. COLD
FRONT NOT QUITE THRU SAGINAW BAY AND THE PRECIP IS MAINLY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AT THIS POINT. TIMING IS PRETTY SOLID
AMONGST ALL GUIDANCE WITH COLD FRONT PASSING THRU BFD BY 15Z AND
LNS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. TIMING OF BEST FORCING/LIFT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS 40+
KTS DURING THAT TIME /PEAK HEATING/...BUT MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS BELOW 60F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SPC HAS
PLACED THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK...AND IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED EVER SO SLIGHTLY FROM THE DY2 OUTLOOK. WILL CARRY THE
CATG SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA BEFORE FROPA. QPF IS LOW PROBABLY DUE
TO THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS. A FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS OR
BOWS MAY APPEAR WITH ONLY A LITTLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT. WHILE NWRN
SITES WILL CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY AFTER FROPA...LOW CLOUDS RETURN
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRONT AND ASSOCD PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. BUT A
FEW SHRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE LAURELS AND NRN TIER EARLY
TONIGHT. CAA OF 10C AT 8H OCCURS BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE NRN TIER WITH +1C ALONG THE NY BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. 8H
TEMPS DO REBOUND A FEW BY MORNING...BUT A COOL N WIND WILL TRY TO
HINDER HEATING SAT MORNING. MINS TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT 40-45F. LNS PROBABLY WON/T TOUCH THE
40S. SFC RIDGE AXIS GETS OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY ON SAT...SO THE WIND DIES OFF AND CLOUDS WILL BE SCT/BKN
AT WORST. THE HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO THE M50S-M60S
WHICH ARE 3-4 DEGS BELOW NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER
PATTERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE MIDWEEK.
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST/SW SUN INTO MON...BRINGING WARMER
AIR BACK IN WITH READINGS BY MON BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S.
AFTER THAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL DEPICT
A LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARD AND ERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE PAC NW HAS TRENDED SHARPER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE OH
VALLEY BY 00Z TUESDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT PLACES PEAK RAIN SHOWER RISK IN THE LATE DAY 5/MON INTO DAY
6/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. MSTR LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE EAST COAST DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD THE FRONT SPEED UP MORE. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER NW FLOW DOMINATES.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL OF LOW
CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE ARND
DAWN. DWPT DEPRESSIONS AT KMDT/KLNS ARE DOWN TO 3F AT 05Z AND
CONDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING THRU
DAWN...LIKELY LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF FOG. LATEST LAMP
GUIDANCE...IN ADDITION TO HRRR AND DOWNSCALED NAM...SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KIPT/KMDT/KLNS ARND DAWN.
FURTHER WEST...A SW BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF FOG.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A MVFR CIG IS LIKELY AT KBFD
BY ARND DAWN...CAUSED BY AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW ASCENDING
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW PA.
ANY EARLY FOG/LOW CIGS ACROSS EASTERN PA SHOULD LIFT BY ARND 13Z-14Z.
FOCUS THEN WILL SHIFT TOWARD A COLD FRONT PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
STATE. MDL DATA IMPLIES A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KBFD BTWN 15Z-18Z...CAUSED BY EITHER FRONTAL SHOWERS OR LOWERING
CIGS ASSOC WITH MOIST SW FLOW. ELSEWHERE...EFFECTS OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PERHAPS A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION
WITH A PASSING SHRA/TSRA. MDL TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THE BEST
CHC OF A SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ARND 15Z AT KBFD...ARND 18Z AT
KJST/KAOO/KUNV...ARND 19Z AT KIPT AND ARND 20Z-21Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...AS DRIER NW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS COULD CAUSE MVFR
CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT KBFD/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
246 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY. RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN AND RETURN
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FIRST OF A FEW LINES OF SCT SHOWERS NOW STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN TIER. PRECIP VERY LIGHT AND MOVING QUICKLY WILL KEEP POPS
LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BUT RAMP THEM UP AFTER SUNRISE. COLD
FRONT NOT QUITE THRU SAGINAW BAY AND THE PRECIP IS MAINLY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AT THIS POINT. TIMING IS PRETTY SOLID
AMONGST ALL GUIDANCE WITH COLD FRONT PASSING THRU BFD BY 15Z AND
LNS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. TIMING OF BEST FORCING/LIFT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS 40+
KTS DURING THAT TIME /PEAK HEATING/...BUT MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS BELOW 60F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SPC HAS
PLACED THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO MDT RISK...AND IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED EVER SO SLIGHTLY FROM THE DY2 OUTLOOK. WILL CARRY THE
CATG SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA BEFORE FROPA. QPF IS LOW PROBABLY DUE
TO THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS. A FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS OR
BOWS MAY APPEAR WITH ONLY A LITTLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT. WHILE
NWRN SITES WILL CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY AFTER FROPA...LOW CLOUDS RETURN
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRONT AND ASSOCD PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. BUT A
FEW SHRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE LAURELS AND NRN TIER EARLY
TONIGHT. CAA OF 10C AT 8H OCCURS BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE NRN TIER WITH +1C ALONG THE NY BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. 8H
TEMPS DO REBOUND A FEW BY MORNING...BUT A COOL N WIND WILL TRY TO
HINDER HEATING SAT MORNING. MINS TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT 40-45F. LNS PROBABLY WON/T TOUCH THE
40S. SFC RIDGE AXIS GETS OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY ON SAT...SO THE WIND DIES OFF AND CLOUDS WILL BE SCT/BKN
AT WORST. THE HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO THE M50S-M60S
WHICH ARE 3-4 DEGS BELOW NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER
PATTERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE MIDWEEK.
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST/SW SUN INTO MON...BRINGING WARMER
AIR BACK IN WITH READINGS BY MON BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S.
AFTER THAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL DEPICT
A LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARD AND ERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE PAC NW HAS TRENDED SHARPER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE OH
VALLEY BY 00Z TUESDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT PLACES PEAK RAIN SHOWER RISK IN THE LATE DAY 5/MON INTO DAY
6/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. MSTR LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE EAST COAST DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD THE FRONT SPEED UP MORE. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER NW FLOW DOMINATES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL OF LOW
CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE ARND
DAWN. DWPT DEPRESSIONS AT KMDT/KLNS ARE DOWN TO 3F AT 05Z AND
CONDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING THRU
DAWN...LIKELY LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF FOG. LATEST LAMP
GUIDANCE...IN ADDITION TO HRRR AND DOWNSCALED NAM...SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KIPT/KMDT/KLNS ARND DAWN.
FURTHER WEST...A SW BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF FOG.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A MVFR CIG IS LIKELY AT KBFD
BY ARND DAWN...CAUSED BY AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW ASCENDING
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW PA.
ANY EARLY FOG/LOW CIGS ACROSS EASTERN PA SHOULD LIFT BY ARND 13Z-14Z.
FOCUS THEN WILL SHIFT TOWARD A COLD FRONT PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
STATE. MDL DATA IMPLIES A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KBFD BTWN 15Z-18Z...CAUSED BY EITHER FRONTAL SHOWERS OR LOWERING
CIGS ASSOC WITH MOIST SW FLOW. ELSEWHERE...EFFECTS OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PERHAPS A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION
WITH A PASSING SHRA/TSRA. MDL TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THE BEST
CHC OF A SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ARND 15Z AT KBFD...ARND 18Z AT
KJST/KAOO/KUNV...ARND 19Z AT KIPT AND ARND 20Z-21Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...AS DRIER NW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS COULD CAUSE MVFR
CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT KBFD/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
209 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON FRIDAY. RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN AND RETURN
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLOUDS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER WESTERN PA AS BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREAD EASTWARD AHEAD OF UPPER
TROF DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GLAKS THIS
EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING
AS SFC HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND ROBUST WAA PATTERN SPREADS INTO
THE AREA...AND SFC LOW/WARM FRONT MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES.
SHOWERS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO NW PA AFTER 06Z AND SPREAD
SEWARD BY SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW
WILL SUPPORT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON
FRIDAY. FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FORCING FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. ANOMALOUS
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MOISTURE FLUX VALUES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
HIGH CONFIDENCE/PROBABILITY IN PCPN...HOWEVER RAFL/QPF AMTS APPEAR
TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONTAL
BAND AND A N-S SPLIT IN THE BEST FORCING OVER PA.
SFC DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
/ML CAPES OF 500-1000 J PER KG/ WITH ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS PSBL
ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL RIDGES INTO THE MID AND LWR SUSQ VLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...THE
AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS. AS A RESULT...SPC
HAS MAINTAINED EXPANDED A MARGINAL RISK AREA ACROSS ALL OF THE LWR
SUSQ VALLEY.
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT CONDS
TO DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER
PATTERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE MIDWEEK.
COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING THE REGION TO THE SE LATE FRI
AFT/EARLY FRI EVE...TAKING PRECIP ALONG WITH IT. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FOR SAT - BRINGING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD.
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST/SW SUN INTO MON...BRINGING WARMER
AIR BACK IN WITH READINGS BY MON BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S.
AFTER THAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL DEPICT
A LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARD AND ERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE PAC NW HAS TRENDED SHARPER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE OH
VALLEY BY 00Z TUESDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT PLACES PEAK RAIN SHOWER RISK IN THE LATE DAY 5/MON INTO DAY
6/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. MSTR LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE EAST COAST DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD THE FRONT SPEED UP MORE. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER NW FLOW DOMINATES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL OF LOW
CIGS/FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE ARND
DAWN. DWPT DEPRESSIONS AT KMDT/KLNS ARE DOWN TO 3F AT 05Z AND
CONDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING THRU
DAWN...LIKELY LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF FOG. LATEST LAMP
GUIDANCE...IN ADDITION TO HRRR AND DOWNSCALED NAM...SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT KIPT/KMDT/KLNS ARND DAWN.
FURTHER WEST...A SW BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF FOG.
HOWEVER...MDL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A MVFR CIG IS LIKELY AT KBFD
BY ARND DAWN...CAUSED BY AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW ASCENDING
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NW PA.
ANY EARLY FOG/LOW CIGS ACROSS EASTERN PA SHOULD LIFT BY ARND 13Z-14Z.
FOCUS THEN WILL SHIFT TOWARD A COLD FRONT PUSHING SE ACROSS THE
STATE. MDL DATA IMPLIES A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KBFD BTWN 15Z-18Z...CAUSED BY EITHER FRONTAL SHOWERS OR LOWERING
CIGS ASSOC WITH MOIST SW FLOW. ELSEWHERE...EFFECTS OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PERHAPS A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION
WITH A PASSING SHRA/TSRA. MDL TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THE BEST
CHC OF A SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ARND 15Z AT KBFD...ARND 18Z AT
KJST/KAOO/KUNV...ARND 19Z AT KIPT AND ARND 20Z-21Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...AS DRIER NW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS COULD CAUSE MVFR
CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT KBFD/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARTNER/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
233 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN MCV THAT MOVED THROUGH EAGLE PASS NEWD TO NEAR UVA EARLY THIS
MORNING IS LOSING MOMENTUM. RECENT DPR VALUES OVER 6 INCHES
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSE RAINFALL EVENTS
OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35. THE INFLUENCE OF THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CONTRACT...WITH BROAD AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN INTO
THE AREA HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DIRECTION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND SHOULD HAVE A RAPID DECREASE IN INFLUENCE OVER THE
AREA. THE MCV IS BEST INITIALIZED BY HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
NSSL WRF AND HRRR ALBEIT A BIT TOO FAR WEST. THESE RUNS CURVE THE
MCV CLOCKWISE TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE TEETH OF THE 20-25 KT RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LLJ WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY. BY
DAYBREAK...MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL SHOW THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF
TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS THE MORE MODERATE RAINS
MAY HAVE ON SOAKED SOILS.
LATE IN THE DAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE DESPITE
A MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX. WHILE THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DOWNWARD TREND IN RAIN
CHANCES...WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SWELL OF HIGHER PWAT VALUES PULLED IN BY THE MCV AND
ASSOCIATED MODERATE RAIN AREA TO THE NORTH. STABILITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SPILLING IN. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE ANY RELIEF FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL START TO OCTOBER...AND
WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS SATURDAY THANKS TO THE DECREASE
IN CLOUDS OVER TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH THE WWD DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC...UPPER
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER TX WITH AN AXIS ALIGNED WITH GENERALLY
WITH THE RIO GRANDE OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW TO MID
90S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE THE AXIS REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE AREA. A SLIGHT WWD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE WILL COINCIDE
WITH A PROGRESSIVE POLAR TROUGH PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHT INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
TX MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME WEAK
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO RICHER MOISTURE TOWARD THE COAST.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SMOOTH AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH LEFT OVER
MUCH OF THE NRN US IN THE WAKE OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...WITH WEAK
RIDGING ANCHORED TO THE WEST OF TX KEEPING AN INFLUENCE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR EXPECTED...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMALS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY OFF THE HOT DAYS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 67 90 68 94 / 20 20 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 64 90 64 93 / 20 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 68 92 67 95 / 20 20 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 64 87 66 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 69 88 69 91 / 70 20 - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 89 65 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 66 91 67 93 / 60 20 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 67 90 65 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 67 90 66 93 / 20 10 - 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 68 90 69 93 / 30 20 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 69 91 69 94 / 30 20 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE/LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
102 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS WERE ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. CEILINGS WERE NEAR
2600FT AT KPIL TO NEAR 6500FT AT KAPY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS IN
GENERAL THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRI MORNING AS
THE 500MB LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO CONTINUES TO BRING LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY ACROSS THE CWA WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/
DISCUSSION...LATEST BRO RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...OVER MEXICO. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WEAKEN DUE TO THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME
ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AREA OVERNIGHT.
ALSO...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF VALUES BASED ON THE
UPDATED POPS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A MIX OF
MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WELL SOUTH OF THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AS FAR AS LOCATION AND TIMING. SOME CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD PRODUCING A MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING. THE SLOWER MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOOD IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SONORA MX
CONTINUES A S/SE MOTION IN RESPONSE TO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL CA COAST. LOW IS PROVIDING
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG MUCH OF WEST TX. THIS WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
DUE TO OVC TO BKN DECK AROUND 8000 FEET...THE CONVECTION HAS NOT
MATERIALIZE AT THIS TIME BUT CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOWS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL AID FOR MORE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY TONIGHT.
HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR THE 70S WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND.
FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT...AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER WEST TO SW THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS BUT STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE ARE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60 TO 70S AND STILL SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL
ALLOW FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES BACK
INTO THE LOW 70S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW DRIFTS FURTHER WEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...ON SATURDAY WE WILL SEE
THE GRADUAL BUT CONTINUED RETREAT OF THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
TRANSLATES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. LONGER (GEOGRAPHIC) RANGE
ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE LOW MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS MAINTAINING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE BORDER
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FIRST PERIOD ON SATURDAY...RAIN
CHANCES WILL FADE UNTIL TUESDAY. BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER...ALTHOUGH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS BY
A FEW DEGREES AT NIGHT TO SEVERAL DEGREES OR MORE DURING THE DAY.
THE TAIL END OF A MIDWEST COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO NORTH TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD TRANSLATING UPPER RIDGE...BUT
WILL LOSE ENERGY BEFORE GETTING TO THE RGV. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER LATE THIS
WEEKEND...IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN TIER MID LEVEL PATTERN...
WILL SUPPORT A SECOND WEAK PLAINS COLD FRONT PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH
BY TUESDAY. FRONTOLYSIS IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WED...WITH A SHORT LIVED WINDOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THAT PERIOD.
THE GFS/UKMET/AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...LENDING ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES WILL DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT TUESDAY...BUT IN AREAS ONLY
WEAKLY RELATED TO THE CWA...AND HENCE SOME CONFIDENCE IS AFFORDED
TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE LONG TERM AS WELL.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE OVER MEXICO WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE INLAND WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF WATERS. MORE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
INTO FRIDAY BUT WILL DIMINISH INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY AND LOWER TO LESS THAN 3 FEET
BY FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE UPSTREAM CUT OFF LOW
WILL BE RETREATING SOUTHWEST OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA ON SAT...
EASING WX CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE AREAS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN BROAD AND FLAT OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...SUPPORTING
LIGHT TO MDT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY FM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER SATURDAY WHEN SURFACE TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
61/55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
249 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOWNSTREAM OF LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST
U.S. IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN FLOW GENERATING JUST
ENOUGH LIFT FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS FIELD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE THREE STATE AREA. BUT THIS WAVE WILL EXIT THIS MORNING
AND WITH STRATUS QUICKLY CLEARING IN SUBSIDENCE AND WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE DAY GOES ON...WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
FAST EVOLVING FLOW WILL MAKE FOR QUICK SURFACE RIDGE PASSAGE TONIGHT
AS SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS RETURN BY EARLY SATURDAY. GIVEN LIGHTER
WINDS THOUGH ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO DAYBREAK...COULD SEE
DECOUPLING AND SOME PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN FAVORED COLD/BOG AREAS.
IMPACT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCAL SO NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
WHILE GENERAL STREAK OF NICE AUTUMN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...HIGHER
AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL MAKE FOR INTERESTING CHANGES AND MINOR
CHALLENGES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE TRACKING FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS. AS THIS WAVE
ENTERS CONUS... MEAN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND ON SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE...BUT MUCH LARGER
IMPACT WILL BE NOTICED ON SUNDAY.
AS WAVE APPROACHES...RESPONSE WILL TIGHTEN GRADIENT WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON SUNDAY. SHOULD
STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE GIVEN DRY AIRMASS SO LOTS TO FAVOR NEAR
RECORD WARMTH FOR MID OCTOBER...2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN TEMPERATURE
ANOMOLY DATA. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR SPECIFICS. WHILE AIRMASS
IS DRY...SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LIMITED MIXING SUNDAY SHOULD
LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW COVERS THOSE
THREATS MORE.
THIS SAME WAVE WILL DIVE INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING.
BETTER QG FORCING FAVORED NORTH OF AREA...BUT STRENGTH OF WAVE IN
GENERAL WILL BEAR WATCHING. AGAIN...DRY AIRMASS WILL TAKE SOME
FORCING TO SATURATE SO EXTENT OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
LIMITED AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ON LOWER SIDE...HIGHEST NORTHEAST OF
INTERSTATE 94.
BIGGER STORY COULD BE WINDS BEHIND THIS WAVE ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN TIMING...EXPECTED MIXING...AND DRY CONDITIONS AS IT RELATES TO
FIRE WEATHER. DETAILS FOR FIRE WEATHER THREAT LISTED BELOW. COULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIND RELATED HEADLINES AS WELL.
AFTER THAT...TRANQUIL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME LOOKS TO CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DRY PATTERN
CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
SOME DRIZZLE HAS FORMED THIS EVENING THAT BRIEFLY ALLOWS THE
CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR AND AT TIMES PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF A
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. APPEARS THIS IS TIED TO A WEAK SECONDARY
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE 09.00Z NAM AND
09.03Z RAP INDICATE THE LIFT FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT
DONE WITH SO DO NOT PLAN TO SHOW ANY DRIZZLE FOR EITHER SITE.
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS OVER
ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF MINNESOTA. THE NAM INDICATES THIS
MOISTURE FIELD TO HOLD ON FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING SO WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF KEEPING THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. ONCE THESE
SCATTER OUT...IT WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 80S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 12 TO 17 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE OF MORE CONCERN. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. A DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING POSSIBLE.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE
60S...SHOULD HELP LIMIT HOW LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GO.
HOWEVER...WE SHOULD SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO THE 35 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE BUT THESE COULD DROP LOWER IF DEEPER MIXING OCCURS.
LOOKING AT THE WORST CASE...WE MAY SEE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO AROUND 27 PERCENT. CLOUDS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN COULD LIMIT MIXING...BUT LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE
AND DEEPER MIXING. MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS DETAILS SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
GIVEN WARM UP EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...HERE ARE THE NORMALS AND RECORDS
FOR LA CROSSE/LSE AND ROCHESTER/RST. ROCHESTER COULD BE IN RECORD
CATEGORY...
FOR OCTOBER 11TH...
LSE - RECORD 86 /1928/ NORMAL IS 62
RST - RECORD 82 /1934/ NORMAL IS 61
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...04
FIRE WEATHER...WETENKAMP
CLIMATE...SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WATCHING CLOUD TRENDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE/FOG FOR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS FORESEEN INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH VERY WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
RATHER CLASSIC OCTOBER "ROLLER COASTER" WEATHER IS SET TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND (AND BEYOND)...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MISS VALLEY ON FRIDAY IS REPLACED BY QUICKLY
BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IN ADVANCE OF QUITE THE SHARP
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES (OUR ISSUE BY
MONDAY). FARTHER DOWN LOW...LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL YIELD TO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY WORKING THROUGH THE REGION INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE OUR LOCAL
AREA FALLS IN THE STRONGER RETURN FLOW AXIS BY SUNDAY...SETTING UP
POTENTIALLY QUITE THE REALLY WARM DAY.
FROM A WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...SHARP SUB-800MB COOLING BENEATH
RESIDUAL WARMTH ALOFT INTO TONIGHT IS AS CLASSIC A SETUP FOR STRATUS
EXPANSION AS ONE CAN GET...AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN LOWER
CLOUDS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. DO HAVE SOME
CONCERNS WE MAY GET INTO A DRIZZLE SITUATION ACROSS MAINLY THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA (CHIMNEY COUNTIES) GIVEN A PERIOD OF BETTER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION...WITH FORECAST RAOBS INDICATIVE
OF A SHARP MOISTURE INCREASE JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION COUPLED WITH
AMPLE SHEAR FOR DRIZZLE PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...SHARPER DRYING AND A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW 900MB DOES GIVE ME PAUSE AS THAT MAY
OFFSET THAT MOISTURE COMPONENT. IN EITHER CASE...WILL REALLY HAVE TO
WATCH CLOUD EVOLUTION ON FRIDAY AS HAVE A FEELING WE MAY DEAL WITH
PESKY STRATUS LONGER THAN GUIDANCE PROGS GIVEN THE EXPANSIVENESS OF
CURRENT UPSTREAM LOW CLOUD DECK. THAT OF COURSE MAY HAVE A BIG
INFLUENCE ON TEMPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGH RES 2-METER TEMPS
SUGGESTIVE WE MAY BE STUCK MORE IN THE 50S THAN LOWER 60S.
REGARDLESS...LOOKING LIKE A NICE WARMUP BY SATURDAY WITH INCREASED
MIXING INTO BUILDING THERMAL RIDGING FROM THE WEST. SHOULD BE A
BREEZY DAY WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND SAID MIXING...WITH GUSTS
PUSHING 30 KNOTS FOR THE HIGHER SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN.
HOWEVER...THE BIGGER STORY STILL LOOKS TO BE WARMTH BY SUNDAY WITH A
CORRIDOR OF 20-23C 925MB TEMPS SLIDING OVERHEAD. MIXING DEPTH COULD
BE BETTER (IT IS NEARLY MID OCTOBER AFTER ALL)...SO WE WON`T GET TO
REALIZE ALL OF THAT POTENTIAL...BUT STILL FORESEE READINGS WELL INTO
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S...LIKELY JUST SHY OF CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE
11TH. FOR REFERENCE...THOSE ARE 86 FOR LA CROSSE (1928) AND 82 FOR
ROCHESTER (1930 AND 1934). OVERALL...SIMPLY A FANTASTIC STRETCH OF
FALL WEATHER!
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
TYPICAL OCTOBER WEATHER CONTINUES RIGHT ON INTO MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH A LITTLE SOMETHING FOR JUST ABOUT EVERY WEATHER FAN
(SORRY SNOW FANS...WE HAVE TO WAIT ON THAT STUFF FOR A WHILE YET).
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...SHARP UPPER TROUGHING LOOKS TO MAKE A RUN AT
US ON MONDAY...PUNTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
WAS QUITE SURPRISED THE PAST FEW DAYS AT THE EXTREME DRYNESS IN GFS
RUNS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AS STRONG UPWARD FORCING
SHOULD DRIVE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE...
EVEN IN THE FACE OF LIMITED PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE RETURN. 08.00Z RUNS
OF THE GEM/ECMWF HAVE REVERSED THIS TREND SOMEWHAT BUT FEEL THAT AT
LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS WARRANTED ALONG THE FRONT...
SIMPLY GIVEN SUCH A STRONG PUSH OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. IT
MAY ULTIMATELY BE THAT SOME LIGHTER PRECIP STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS THE CWA BUT REALLY TAKES OFF JUST TO OUR EAST AS THE UPPER
WAVE INTERCEPTS BETTER MOISTURE RETURN. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
AND QUITE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL TUESDAY ONWARD INTO
LATE WEEK...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
EACH DAY THOUGH WITH SEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHTS GIVEN RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS AND EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
SOME DRIZZLE HAS FORMED THIS EVENING THAT BRIEFLY ALLOWS THE
CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR AND AT TIMES PRODUCES A LITTLE BIT OF A
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. APPEARS THIS IS TIED TO A WEAK SECONDARY
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE 09.00Z NAM AND
09.03Z RAP INDICATE THE LIFT FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT
DONE WITH SO DO NOT PLAN TO SHOW ANY DRIZZLE FOR EITHER SITE.
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS OVER
ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF MINNESOTA. THE NAM INDICATES THIS
MOISTURE FIELD TO HOLD ON FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING SO WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF KEEPING THE CLOUDS IN PLACE. ONCE THESE
SCATTER OUT...IT WILL BE VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1001 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH...STEADY RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE STORM/S COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY. PRECIPITATION WILL END BY
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES AND WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1001 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN END
OF LAKE ONTARIO...IS IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING BY THE REGION TO
THE NORTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM/S WARM FRONT HAS
ALLOWED A STEADY RAINFALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SOME BURSTS OF MODERATE RAINFALL IN
SPOTS. MRMS RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE SHOWING ONE HALF INCH TO NEARLY
INCH FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
STEADIEST RAINFALL HAS BEEN AROUND I-90...WITH MORE SHOWERY
RAINFALL FOR THE CAPITAL REGION AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND LITTLE
TO NO RAINFALL FOR THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SO
FAR.
AS SEEN ON UPSTREAM RADARS AND SHOWN IN THE 3KM HRRR...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FOR LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THIS AFTN...AS THE STORM/S COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE AREA...INCLUDING
SOUTHERN AREAS THAT HAVEN/T SEEN MUCH ACTIVITY YET.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
ALBANY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK
HAS DEVELOPED AND BY THE TIME IT ERODES THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT MORE ROBUST
INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING. STILL ANY ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS AN EMBEDDED LINE OF
HEAVIER ECHOS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR ABOUT 3-5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON MOVING ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH. THIS
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE ISOLD THUNDER AND PERHAPS A STRONG
WIND GUST...BUT THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WINDS LOOKS FAIRLY
LOW.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE. UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. COOLER UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
CYCLONE. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AROUND 10-20 MPH WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTH AND WEST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF ALBANY AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT TYPICAL FOR MID OCTOBER RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 60S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S...BUT MAINLY UPPER 30S
FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD. SO
THERE COULD BE SOME FROST FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE MID 30S ARE FORECAST...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE
HWO.
AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY
WITH SUNSHINE AND WARMING ALOFT PROVIDED BY A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND NEAR 60 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FOR COLUMBUS DAY EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
MILD TEMPERATURES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA DRY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EXPECT TWO COLD FRONTS TO CROSS THE FA
WITH THE FIRST FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND THE SECOND
COLD FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SECOND COLD
FRONT. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES DUE TO RAINFALL AND
STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BECOME VFR IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH SKIES BECOMING SCT LATE TONIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS THIS
MORNING THEN BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO 3-5 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY TO COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS. AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO
THE NORTH...STEADY RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE STORM/S COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY. PRECIPITATION WILL END BY
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES AND WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ON SUNDAY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 85 PERCENT
TODAY. RH WILL INCREASE TO MAXIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 35 TO 45
PERCENT ON SATURDAY.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH...SHIFTING TO
THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A STEADY RAIN TO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BE TAPERING TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...TO AROUND AN INCH
AND A QUARTER OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE
COLUMBUS DAY WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES TOWARDS
THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ALONG A
PASSING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
633 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS INDIANA THIS MORNING AND DEPART THIS
AFTERNOON. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS. AFTER THAT...DRY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS BROKE APART AND DISSIPATED BEFORE
IT COULD REACH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AND
AMOUNTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK...AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
POISED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AND ABOUT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE RAPID
REFRESH WHICH IS PROJECTING A LINE OF PRECIPITATION FULLY DEVELOPING
AROUND 15-16Z THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INDIANA...THE REST OF
THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE WITH RESPECT TO POPS. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT CHANCES WEAK...WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM...POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE HRRR THUS FAR AND
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONGST THE REST OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE THAT
LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THERE WILL BE WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE THEREFORE UNDERCUT MOS NUMBERS SLIGHTLY FOR
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S (ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES) TO NEAR 70S (FAR SOUTHEAST).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A VERY DRY
COLUMN...ALONG WITH UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS THROUGH
SUNDAY. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE ON THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND HAVE THUS TRENDED HIGHS ON SATURDAY TOWARD THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER MAVMOS. IF THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH OR
CALM...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT SO HAVE ALSO TRENDED LOW TEMPERATURES
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BELOW MAVMOS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FULL
SUN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AS WELL AS DECENT SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW.
WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN MEXMOS DURING THIS TIME FOR HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND MONDAY...WITH FAIRLY FLAT WEST TO NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A SMALL PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH
CHANCE POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. APPEARS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT AFTER THAT...SO WILL GO DRY FOR THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 091200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN INDIANA. THIS FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINALS BY 091400Z OR SO BASED ON SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE. AREA OF LOWER CEILINGS 020-030 IN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE
SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING HOURS AND HOLD FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF MISSOURI MAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN TO MAINLY THE KHUF/KIND/KBMG AREAS TOWARDS MIDDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. APPEARS ANY RAIN
THAT MAY OCCUR WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
TO A MINIMUM.
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER AROUND TO 320-350 DEGREES LATER THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
11-15 KTS BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
638 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Upper trough axis was moving into eastern Kansas from the northwest
early this morning, with regional radar and surface observations
putting cold front through northern Oklahoma at 08Z. Bands of
showers wear ahead of the trough, with measurable amounts on the
northwest edge hard to come by. Trends put the axis into the far
southern counties at 12Z and will carry a few hours of sprinkles
here. Satellite imagery showing a few other items of interest,
including widespread stratus from northeastern Nebraska east across
much of Iowa and north into Minnesota with high cloud spilling
southwest out of the northern Rockies.
Though somewhat overdone, the latest RAP runs seem to have the best
handle on the stratus to the north/northeast and keep it together
through the morning as north winds usher it south. Given shallow
nature of cold air, think it is a little too pessimistic on the
cloud. Highs will still struggle into the 65-70 range even in good
insolation with 850mb temps 6-8C colder than Thursday. High cloud
should be entering north central Kansas late in the day and continue
southeast overnight. Surface ridge axis will passing through the
area at the same time, so amount/persistence of cirrus and stratus
will be large players in fog potential. At this point there appears
to be enough of a chance for patchy wording in eastern areas,
nearer the ridge and any higher moisture from stratus.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Saturday high temperatures warm back up into the 70s as shortwave
ridge begins to build overhead behind departing trof. This is
amplified Saturday night into Sunday, and lows Saturday night may
be underforecast in the middle to upper 50s as southerly winds and
warm air advection aloft ramp up overnight. As the mid level
thermal ridge approaches from the north on Sunday ahead of the
next front, highs are expected to mix into mid to upper 80s, with
even some low 90s possible.
Front consistently forecast to move through on Sunday night into
Monday morning, bringing cooler temperatures on Monday with highs
in the mid 70s, and could see falling temperatures through the
day. Lows drop back into the 40s on Monday night.
West northwesterly flow remains across the northern into central
plains through the late week, with periodic frontal boundaries
coming southward in the flow. Highs in the 70s with lows in the
50s, with next chance for rain possibly coming toward the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Showers have pushed off to the southeast, but additional issues
exist in this forecast. MVFR stratus in eastern Nebraska looks to
enter the terminals around 16Z, though latest trends may keep it
just east of MHK. Limited mention at MHK to tempo at this point.
Breaks in northern Iowa and shallow nature of moisture should
allow for VFR conditions by 20Z. Light winds and clear skies will
likely lead to reduced visibilities in BR/FG after 09Z Saturday,
again more likely at TOP and FOE in lighter winds and higher
moisture.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1003 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
WSR-88D RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
ISOLATED STORM MAINLY MOVING THROUGH BATH...FLEMING...AND ROWAN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. GRIDS LOOK FAIRLY ON TRACK AT THIS POINT.
DID MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO INGEST THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS OVERALL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS. ALSO TWEAKED THE WX AND POP ONES BASED ON THE CURRENT
RADAR IMAGES AND HRRR PROGS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON ITS TREK EAST. A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTHWEST FROM THIS
LOW AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO POP UP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS ARE TAKING SHAPE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUD COVER. THEY ARE
FEEDING ON RELATIVELY ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
CWA. LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS AND ROVING SHOWERS TO HELP STIR THE AIR
AND MITIGATE OUR CURRENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. THE
MOST SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
WHILE RIDGES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. WINDS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY TAKE A DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY TO END THE WORK WEEK AND START THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST
ECMWF AND NAM12 ARE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE CLUSTERING WITH
THE CORE OF THIS WAVE BUT STILL REASONABLE. THIS TROUGH AND ITS
ENERGY DIVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WITH
HEIGHTS REBOUNDING BY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
FOR DETAILS WITH THIS FROPA EVENT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AROUND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY FROM
THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
LIMITED BY THE MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DESPITE DECENT
DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOME WIND SHEAR ALOFT...AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS... IN ADDITION TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. THE INSTABILITY
WANES DURING THE EVENING WITH THUNDER MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT. POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AND
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR
HIGHS COMPARED TO THURSDAY AND TODAY.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
SATURDAY. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNED ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS MORNING/S
LOW TEMPERATURES AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR
TO CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
THE PERIOD WILL BEING WITH A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION
AND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTED
TROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE WEATHER PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK
WILL FEATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE COLD...WITH READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND 50
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE
EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THIS BOUT OF RAIN WOULD BE
TRIGGERED BY SLOW AND WEAKENING EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ONCE
THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...WE SHOULD SEE OTHERWISE DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE CURRENTLY...NOT AFFECTING
ANY TAF SITES. AFTER 15Z...MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
SITES AS THE CLOUDS LOWER AND SHOWERS MORE EFFECTIVELY DEVELOP.
BY MIDDAY...MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
FROM ANY STORM. IN A THUNDERSTORM...CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FALL
TO IFR OR BELOW FOR A SHORT TIME. LOOK FOR CIGS TO FALL
LATER TONIGHT POST FRONTAL WITH IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH MVFR FOG. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO 10
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO
WEST/NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS POST FROPA...SETTLING TO NEAR
CALM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS. ALSO TWEAKED THE WX AND POP ONES BASED ON THE CURRENT
RADAR IMAGES AND HRRR PROGS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON ITS TREK EAST. A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTHWEST FROM THIS
LOW AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO POP UP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS ARE TAKING SHAPE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUD COVER. THEY ARE
FEEDING ON RELATIVELY ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
CWA. LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS AND ROVING SHOWERS TO HELP STIR THE AIR
AND MITIGATE OUR CURRENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. THE
MOST SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
WHILE RIDGES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. WINDS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY TAKE A DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY TO END THE WORK WEEK AND START THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST
ECMWF AND NAM12 ARE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE CLUSTERING WITH
THE CORE OF THIS WAVE BUT STILL REASONABLE. THIS TROUGH AND ITS
ENERGY DIVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WITH
HEIGHTS REBOUNDING BY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
FOR DETAILS WITH THIS FROPA EVENT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AROUND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY FROM
THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
LIMITED BY THE MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DESPITE DECENT
DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOME WIND SHEAR ALOFT...AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS... IN ADDITION TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. THE INSTABILITY
WANES DURING THE EVENING WITH THUNDER MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT. POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AND
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR
HIGHS COMPARED TO THURSDAY AND TODAY.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
SATURDAY. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNED ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS MORNING/S
LOW TEMPERATURES AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR
TO CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
THE PERIOD WILL BEING WITH A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION
AND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTED
TROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE WEATHER PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK
WILL FEATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE COLD...WITH READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND 50
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE
EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THIS BOUT OF RAIN WOULD BE
TRIGGERED BY SLOW AND WEAKENING EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ONCE
THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...WE SHOULD SEE OTHERWISE DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OUT THERE CURRENTLY...NOT AFFECTING
ANY TAF SITES. AFTER 15Z...MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
SITES AS THE CLOUDS LOWER AND SHOWERS MORE EFFECTIVELY DEVELOP.
BY MIDDAY...MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
FROM ANY STORM. IN A THUNDERSTORM...CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FALL
TO IFR OR BELOW FOR A SHORT TIME. LOOK FOR CIGS TO FALL
LATER TONIGHT POST FRONTAL WITH IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH MVFR FOG. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 5 TO 10
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO
WEST/NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS POST FROPA...SETTLING TO NEAR
CALM AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
553 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
RELATIVELY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD. INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN
THIS MORNING IS DEALING WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR HAS PERFORMED WELL IN HANDLING
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...INDICATING LAST EVENING THAT A HOLE WOULD
BE BLOWN OPEN IN THE CLOUD DECK FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
WESTERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HENCE...INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS MORNING OUT WEST AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER THERE CONTINUES TO
HOLD STRONG. THE EXPECTATION WITH THE CLOUD COVER IS THAT THE DRY
WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST...AND THE CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN MN WILL DO THE SAME...SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN MN THIS MORNING. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DRYING CONDITIONS AND ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL
DIMINISH THE CLOUD DECK...EXPECT IT TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS AND COME CLOUD
COVER DURING THE DAY...HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE UPPER 50S FOR
MOST...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW 60S IN FAR WESTERN MN.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING...SO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE HIGH WILL DEPART THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE`LL
SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
RATHER FEW ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN THIS EXTENDED FCST PKG.
SFC HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER THE GRT LKS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS WHILE A LARGE SFC RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WARMING OVER THE UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO STRONG SWLY SFC FLOW AND INCRD H5 HEIGHTS TO
THE 576-579 DAM RANGE. H85 TEMPS WILL INCRS TO ARND 20 DEG C BY
SUN...AND THIS WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
ATOP THE REGION. THUS...SUNDAY HAS POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MULTIPLE SITES WITHIN THE WFO MPX CWFA. MIXING STILL DOES NOT LOOK
AS OPTIMIZED AS POSSIBLE DUE TO A SLIGHT RELAXING OF THE WIND
FIELDS...THUS TEMPS MAY FALL JUST SHORT BUT STILL HIT THE LWR 80S
FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA.
AN APPROACHING CDFNT FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL BRING A SHARP
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES GOING INTO MON TO THE TUNE OF 15-20
DEGREES COOLER CWFA-WIDE. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FROPA...SO HAVE CONFINED ONLY SLGT CHC POPS TO THE NRN
AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA FOR DURG THE DAY ON MON. HOWEVER...A
VERY TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ALONG WITH VORTICITY PACKING WITH THE
FROPA WILL MEAN A STRONG INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FOR MONDAY...
POSSIBLY TO WIND ADVY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE MODELS
DEVELOP THIS SCHEME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEYOND MON...THE FCST REMAINS DRY WITH COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
AS HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWED...CLOUD DECK IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI HAS ERODED RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT...SO MSP AND AREAS EAST WILL SEE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE MORNING. THE
HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATED THE CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN
MN WORKING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING THOUGH...SO INDICATED VFR
LEVEL BKN CEILINGS LATER THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN WESTERLY...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN SO A SLIGHT
INCREASE AND WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. NO PRECIP EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
KMSP...INDICATED A FEW HOURS OF BKN CEILINGS AS HRRR SEEMED TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. ITS VERY POSSIBLE
THE LOW LEVEL DRYING COULD SCATTER THE CLOUDS OUT IN WESTERN MN
BEFORE THEY CAN REACH MSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
745 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PA TODAY. RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE COMMONWEALTH
LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN AND RETURN
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
430 AM...
A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS MOVING
THRU THE NWRN COS AT THIS TIME. SEE NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING LIKE THE
HRRR AND RAP SHOW. THEY ARE HANDLING THIS CONVECTION RATHER POORLY
AT THIS POINT. THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL PRETTY LOW FOR SUSTAINING
SHOWERS/STORMS. BUT WILL HANG WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND
CONTINUE TO PRESS THESE SHOWERS THROUGH ALL THE NRN MTNS INTO
SUNRISE. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS JUST PASSING THRU DETROIT.
TIMING IS RIGHT ON FOR THE FRONT...BUT THE SHOWERS ARE A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED/SIGNIFICANT THAN EARLIER THINKING. HAVE UPPED POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS AND ADJUSTED THEM FOR A BRIEF BREAK AFTER
THESE SHOWERS MOVE EAST OUT OF WARREN/MCKEAN COS.
PREV...
FIRST OF A FEW LINES OF SCT SHOWERS NOW STARTING TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN TIER. PRECIP VERY LIGHT AND MOVING QUICKLY WILL KEEP POPS
LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS BUT RAMP THEM UP AFTER SUNRISE. COLD
FRONT NOT QUITE THRU SAGINAW BAY AND THE PRECIP IS MAINLY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AT THIS POINT. TIMING IS PRETTY SOLID
AMONGST ALL GUIDANCE WITH COLD FRONT PASSING THRU BFD BY 15Z AND
LNS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. TIMING OF BEST FORCING/LIFT WILL BE IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL WINDS 40+
KTS DURING THAT TIME /PEAK HEATING/...BUT MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS BELOW 60F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SPC HAS
PLACED THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO MRGL RISK...AND IT HAS BEEN
EXPANDED EVER SO SLIGHTLY FROM THE DY2 OUTLOOK. WILL CARRY THE
CATG SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA BEFORE FROPA. QPF IS LOW PROBABLY DUE
TO THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS. A FEW MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS OR
BOWS MAY APPEAR WITH ONLY A LITTLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT. WHILE NWRN
SITES WILL CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY AFTER FROPA...LOW CLOUDS RETURN
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FRONT AND ASSOCD PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. BUT A
FEW SHRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE LAURELS AND NRN TIER EARLY
TONIGHT. CAA OF 10C AT 8H OCCURS BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MIDNIGHT
ALONG THE NRN TIER WITH +1C ALONG THE NY BORDER EARLY TONIGHT. 8H
TEMPS DO REBOUND A FEW BY MORNING...BUT A COOL N WIND WILL TRY TO
HINDER HEATING SAT MORNING. MINS TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT 40-45F. LNS PROBABLY WON/T TOUCH THE
40S. SFC RIDGE AXIS GETS OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY ON SAT...SO THE WIND DIES OFF AND CLOUDS WILL BE SCT/BKN
AT WORST. THE HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO THE M50S-M60S
WHICH ARE 3-4 DEGS BELOW NORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER
PATTERNS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE MIDWEEK.
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE WEST/SW SUN INTO MON...BRINGING WARMER
AIR BACK IN WITH READINGS BY MON BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S.
AFTER THAT...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL DEPICT
A LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARD AND ERN CONUS TROUGH WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM THE PAC NW HAS TRENDED SHARPER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE OH
VALLEY BY 00Z TUESDAY. CURRENT TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT PLACES PEAK RAIN SHOWER RISK IN THE LATE DAY 5/MON INTO DAY
6/TUESDAY TIME FRAME. MSTR LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE EAST COAST DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD THE FRONT SPEED UP MORE. TEMPS WILL FALL BACK
CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER NW FLOW DOMINATES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...OVR WESTERN LK ERIE AT 11Z...WILL PUSH SE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER TODAY. A MOIST SW FLOW PRECEDING THE FRONT WILL
ASCEND THE NW MTNS...LIKELY PRODUCING IFR CIGS AT KBFD THROUGH
MIDDAY. ELSEWHERE...EFFECTS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO PERHAPS A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION WITH A PASSING SHRA/TSRA.
MDL TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS THE BEST CHC OF A SHRA/TSRA WILL
OCCUR ARND 15Z AT KBFD...ARND 18Z AT KJST/KAOO/KUNV...ARND 19Z AT
KIPT AND ARND 20Z-21Z AT KMDT/KLNS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...AS DRIER NW FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE ALLEGHENY MTNS COULD CAUSE MVFR
CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING AT KBFD/KJST.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
650 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE... /REVISED POPS SLIGHTLY IN FIRST 6 HOURS/
ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND CONTRACT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. POPS WERE REVISED TO REFLECT THE
IMPACT OF A COOL POOL OF AIR THAT HAS ENHANCED A N-S ORIENTED
CONVECTIVE LINE WHICH WILL REACH A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE PRIOR
FORECAST HAD. THUS LIKELY POPS ARE NOW ENTERED FOR THE WESTERN
PART OF THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA. RAPID STORM WEAKENING IS
FORECAST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS BY RAPID REFRESH MODELS. WITH
THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LEADING EDGE AT 10-12
KNOTS...THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO HIT A WALL OF STABILITY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES HIGHWAY 281 LATE THIS MORNING. 6 AM-9 AM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MAINLY 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE OVER THE STRONGER
PORTIONS OF THE COMPLEX.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED JUST EAST OF
DEL RIO AND ARE INCHING CLOSER TO THE SAN ANTONIO SITES. WILL
INCLUDE VCSH AT THESE SITES FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR STRATUS IS
IN PLACE AT KSAT AND SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN MCV THAT MOVED THROUGH EAGLE PASS NEWD TO NEAR UVA EARLY THIS
MORNING IS LOSING MOMENTUM. RECENT DPR VALUES OVER 6 INCHES
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSE RAINFALL EVENTS
OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35. THE INFLUENCE OF THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CONTRACT...WITH BROAD AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN INTO
THE AREA HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DIRECTION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND SHOULD HAVE A RAPID DECREASE IN INFLUENCE OVER THE
AREA. THE MCV IS BEST INITIALIZED BY HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
NSSL WRF AND HRRR ALBEIT A BIT TOO FAR WEST. THESE RUNS CURVE THE
MCV CLOCKWISE TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE TEETH OF THE 20-25 KT RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LLJ WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY. BY
DAYBREAK...MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL SHOW THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF
TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS THE MORE MODERATE RAINS
MAY HAVE ON SOAKED SOILS.
LATE IN THE DAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE DESPITE
A MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX. WHILE THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DOWNWARD TREND IN RAIN
CHANCES...WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SWELL OF HIGHER PWAT VALUES PULLED IN BY THE MCV AND
ASSOCIATED MODERATE RAIN AREA TO THE NORTH. STABILITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SPILLING IN. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE ANY RELIEF FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL START TO OCTOBER...AND
WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS SATURDAY THANKS TO THE DECREASE
IN CLOUDS OVER TODAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH THE WWD DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC...UPPER
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER TX WITH AN AXIS ALIGNED WITH GENERALLY
WITH THE RIO GRANDE OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW TO MID
90S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE THE AXIS REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE AREA. A SLIGHT WWD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE WILL COINCIDE
WITH A PROGRESSIVE POLAR TROUGH PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHT INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
TX MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME WEAK
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO RICHER MOISTURE TOWARD THE COAST.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SMOOTH AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH LEFT OVER
MUCH OF THE NRN US IN THE WAKE OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...WITH WEAK
RIDGING ANCHORED TO THE WEST OF TX KEEPING AN INFLUENCE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR EXPECTED...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMALS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY OFF THE HOT DAYS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 67 90 68 94 / 20 20 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 64 90 64 93 / 20 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 68 92 67 95 / 20 20 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 64 87 66 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 69 88 69 91 / 50 20 - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 89 65 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 66 91 67 93 / 70 20 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 67 90 65 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 67 90 66 93 / 20 10 - 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 68 90 69 93 / 40 20 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 69 91 69 94 / 40 20 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
621 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED JUST EAST OF
DEL RIO AND ARE INCHING CLOSER TO THE SAN ANTONIO SITES. WILL
INCLUDE VCSH AT THESE SITES FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR STRATUS IS
IN PLACE AT KSAT AND SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN MCV THAT MOVED THROUGH EAGLE PASS NEWD TO NEAR UVA EARLY THIS
MORNING IS LOSING MOMENTUM. RECENT DPR VALUES OVER 6 INCHES
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSE RAINFALL EVENTS
OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35. THE INFLUENCE OF THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CONTRACT...WITH BROAD AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN INTO
THE AREA HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DIRECTION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND SHOULD HAVE A RAPID DECREASE IN INFLUENCE OVER THE
AREA. THE MCV IS BEST INITIALIZED BY HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
NSSL WRF AND HRRR ALBEIT A BIT TOO FAR WEST. THESE RUNS CURVE THE
MCV CLOCKWISE TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE TEETH OF THE 20-25 KT RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LLJ WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY. BY
DAYBREAK...MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL SHOW THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF
TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS THE MORE MODERATE RAINS
MAY HAVE ON SOAKED SOILS.
LATE IN THE DAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE DESPITE
A MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX. WHILE THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DOWNWARD TREND IN RAIN
CHANCES...WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SWELL OF HIGHER PWAT VALUES PULLED IN BY THE MCV AND
ASSOCIATED MODERATE RAIN AREA TO THE NORTH. STABILITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SPILLING IN. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE ANY RELIEF FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL START TO OCTOBER...AND
WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS SATURDAY THANKS TO THE DECREASE
IN CLOUDS OVER TODAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH THE WWD DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC...UPPER
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER TX WITH AN AXIS ALIGNED WITH GENERALLY
WITH THE RIO GRANDE OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW TO MID
90S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE THE AXIS REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE AREA. A SLIGHT WWD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE WILL COINCIDE
WITH A PROGRESSIVE POLAR TROUGH PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHT INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
TX MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME WEAK
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO RICHER MOISTURE TOWARD THE COAST.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SMOOTH AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH LEFT OVER
MUCH OF THE NRN US IN THE WAKE OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...WITH WEAK
RIDGING ANCHORED TO THE WEST OF TX KEEPING AN INFLUENCE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR EXPECTED...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMALS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY OFF THE HOT DAYS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 67 90 68 94 / 20 20 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 89 64 90 64 93 / 20 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 68 92 67 95 / 20 20 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 64 87 66 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 83 69 88 69 91 / 70 20 - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 89 65 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 66 91 67 93 / 60 20 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 88 67 90 65 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 89 67 90 66 93 / 20 10 - 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 68 90 69 93 / 30 20 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 69 91 69 94 / 30 20 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1026 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN ACROSS
THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED AS WELL HERE AT THE
OFFICE...WHICH WERE SHOWING UP AS LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ON
RADAR. KEPT MENTION OF THIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
COUNTIES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY SUNSET...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS TO WEAKEN AS WELL. 925 MB
TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
50S...THOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR CATEGORY BY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS TAF SITES. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT BY
SUNSET ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY MORNING...BECOMING GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. HIGH WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FEET BY
SUNSET. THUS...ENDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH OF WIND POINT AT
00Z SATURDAY...THE SAME TIME AS THE MARINE ZONES TO THE NORTH OF
THERE.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES TIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY OFFSHORE...SO HIGH WAVES SHOULD BE LIMITED TOWARD AND OVER
THE OPEN WATERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY IS TRENDING THE CLOUD COVER OUT OF HERE. EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOWER CLOUD DECK COVERS A
MAJORITY OF WISCONSIN...CLEARING NOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. SOME
BROKEN CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE UNDER A DECENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THAT CIRCULATION IS PART OF A LARGER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS THAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH WISCONSIN BY MID DAY. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH
NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL TEMP ADVECTION SHOULD BRING RAPID CLEARING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. THE RAP IS MORE PESSIMISTIC IN THE LOW
LEVEL RH...KEEPING IT AROUND UNTIL MID AFTERNOON OR SO. THEREFORE
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO THE CLEARING TRENDS. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS
MORNING...BUT THAT GRADIENT RELAXES AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
LEANS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SO...THE AFTERNOON IS SHAPING
UP TO FEATURE DECREASING CLOUDS AND WIND WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
QUIET TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE USUAL LOW SPOTS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DRY WNW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL PUSH 925MB TEMPS UP TO AROUND 13C YIELDING MAX TEMPS
INTO THE UPPER 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 70. ELEVATED WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM
DROPPING TOO FAR SAT NIGHT... SO WENT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN WI ON SUNDAY. 925MB TEMPS WILL JUMP TO 20C
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO WE ARE LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. EXPECTING A LOW AROUND 60 SUN
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THAT STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT
COULD CLEAR SOUTHEAST WI AS EARLY AS 12Z/7 AM BUT MOST LIKELY AROUND
15Z/10 AM. THIS IS YOUR TYPICAL STRONG FALL SEASON FRONT... ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT AND JUST
BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE... DRY AIR WILL DOMINATE.
LOOK FOR GUSTY WNW WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES. THE MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. 925MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND 4C BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S INLAND FROM THE LAKE.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
WE WILL BE IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURE MODERATION SO WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY REAL COLD SNAP. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
60S ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE GENERATING LIGHT QPF HERE AND THERE WITH THE SHORTWAVES
ALTHOUGH THE TIMING DOES NOT AGREE BETWEEN THEM. THERE WILL AT LEAST
BE PERIODS OF CLOUDS. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
AND THEN CLEAR OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS.
THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE THIS MORNING...DIMINISHING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND RELAXES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
MARINE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH INTO THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL ABOUT MID
AFTERNOON FOR THE SHEBOYGAN AREA AND THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING
TOWARD KENOSHA.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
248 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015
...NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND...
ANOTHER PLEASANT FALL DAY ACROSS SE CO. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 50S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A BROAD AND FLAT LEE
TROUGH BUILDING E OF THE MTS. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
THIS EVE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE NOW OVER SRN WY AND UT MOVES THROUGH
THE NW FLOW ALOFT OVER ERN CO. SOME CU BUILD-UP CURRENTLY OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND LA GARITAS...SO WILL LEAVE LOW POPS INTACT FOR THE SW
MTS THIS EVE AS THIS AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF AN ISOLD
SHOWER...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP AT THIS TIME. LATEST HRRR IS
SHOWING A COUPLE SHOWERS OVER EL PASO THIS EVE...BUT NOT SEEING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CU IN THAT AREA RIGHT NOW SO WILL LEAVE POPS
SILENT OVER PIKES PEAK AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ONCE THE WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVE SHOULD SEE ALL BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR
OUT...CLEARING THE WAY FOR A DRY AND WARM SATURDAY.
TOMORROW...EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR BUILDUPS POSSIBLY OVER THE SW
MTS...SHOULD BE A DRY DAY EVEN OVER THE MTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST. WITH H7 TEMPS CLIMBING TO 13 OR 14
DEG C OVER THE PLAINS...WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH FORECAST MAX
TFOR KCOS AND KPUB OF 82 AND 87 RESPECTIVELY...AND RECORD MAX
TEMPS OF 84 AND 89 FOR THE SAME SITES. WINDS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT
WITH NO STRONG DOWN-SLOPE EXPECTED...SO FEEL TI WILL BE TOUGH TO
BREAK THE RECORD HIGHS TOMORROW...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE...AND VERY
WARM WITH MAX TEMPS A GOOD 15 DEG OR MORE ABOVE AVERAGE TOMORROW.
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE START OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER OVER OUR CWA. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015
WITH A FLAT UPR RIDGE OVERHEAD ON SUN AND LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE
FLOW...DRY AND WARM WEATHER WL CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPS ON SUN ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...AND AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE HIGH VALLEYS.
SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO REACHING RECORD HIGHS.
SUN NIGHT AS AN UPR TROF MOVES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS STATES...A FRONT WL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SERN CO. THIS FRONT
WL BRING A BIG COOL DOWN FOR MON...BUT THE HIGH TEMPS WL STILL BE
AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. DRY CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE ON MON.
AN UPR RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE OVR AZ AND THE GREAT BASIN TUE AND
WED...AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVR NM AND CO FOR THU AS AN UPR
TROF MOVES OVR SRN CA. A WEAK SFC FRONT MAY BACK INTO ERN CO EARLY
THU. THIS UPR RIDGE WL KEEP DRY AIR OVR THE AREA TUE THRU THU. ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT ON
THU WL LIKELY BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FROM TUE AND WED.
ON FRI...THE UPR TROF THAT WAS OVR CA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AZ
AND NV AND MAY PUSH A LITTLE MOISTURE INTO CO. AS A RESULT...THERE
COULD BE A FEW MOUNTAINS SHOWERS/TSTMS ON FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER
SE CO. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
335 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...A BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SURFACE PRESSURES TO RISE FOR A NICE AUTUMN WEEKEND WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THE COLUMBUS DAY HOLIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AT LEAST TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THE BACK EDGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACK STATE PARK. PER EXTRAPOLATION OF THESE SHOWERS ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY HRRR UPDATES...SEEMS A LINE OF CONVECTION MAY
EVOLVE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS MAINLY SOUTH OF I90. PER
THE SPC HOURLY ANALYSIS AND AWIPS LAPS DATA ALONG WITH THE SWOMCD
...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH RESPECT TO SBCAPES WERE INTO THE
LOWER 100S J/KG AND SHOWALTER VALUES WERE BETWEEN 0-1C. WIND
MAGNITUDES PER THE VWP WERE RESPECTABLE WITH 30-50KTS WITHIN THE
MID LEVELS. SO IF ANY DEEPER CONVECTION WERE TO
DEVELOP...POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR. PWATS REMAIN
ELEVATED WITH CURRENT VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1.50 INCHES SO
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS REMAIN A CONCERN. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 70F YET WITH CLOUDS AND WET
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...NO MUCH CHANGE TO THE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
FROPA OCCURS BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A BRISK WESTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP. CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECASTS SO LITTLE
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD
TO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S...BUT MAINLY UPPER 30S
FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD. SO
THERE COULD BE SOME FROST FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE MID 30S ARE FORECAST...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE
HWO.
THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY WITH SUNSHINE AND WARMING
ALOFT PROVIDED BY A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AS SURFACE
RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE INTO THE 60S SUNDAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THEN MOVING
INTO THE LOWER 70S MONDAY AS H850 TEMPS CLIMB TOWARD +15C.
OTHERWISE...A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO COOLER WEATHER. IT
WILL BE MAINLY DRY AFTER TUESDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARD OUR REGION FROM
THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WITH THE
CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ON BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST
BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF
ALBANY...MID 60S LOCALLY IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.
BY WEDNESDAY...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 0C AS AS FAR SOUTH AS
I-90...A BIT COOLER TO THE NORTH. WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE
ALONG WITH A GUSTY BREEZE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...LOCALLY NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE
CAPITAL REGION.
WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEAST...ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE
ENERGY LOOKS TO WORK THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY BRINGING OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS. IT MIGHT
ACTUALLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN PLACES
OVER 2500 FEET.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...COOLEST IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT COOLER ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...TO UPPER 50S
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NY. WITH THIS FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING AT KGFL/KALB...WITH
SHOWERS MOVING INTO KPSF. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IFR/MVFR WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS AT THESE
SITES. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF
KPOU...BUT WILL BE IMPACTING THERE LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS THERE. SOME THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...BUT IT DOESN/T APPEAR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR KALB.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE W-NW AROUND 10 KTS.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING...BUT DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SHOULD
ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES FOR MOST OF TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
THIS BREEZE...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...SHOULD PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS. NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY TO COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS AT THIS TIME WITH WET CONDITIONS
DURING FRIDAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RH WILL INCREASE TO MAXIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES
OF AROUND 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 20
MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A STEADY RAIN TO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BE TAPERING TO SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...TO AROUND AN INCH AND A QUARTER OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR. BEHIND THIS STORM
SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE COLUMBUS DAY WEEKEND...AS
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SOME SHOWERS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
249 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...THEN SETTLE TO THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST TO THE EAST MONDAY OR
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NE
TO S CENTRAL PA AS OF 18Z. HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS LINE AS IT ENTERED OUR AREA...SO WAS USED FOR POP FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH THE LINE REACHING AREAS NORTH OF NYC BEFORE 5
PM...NYC METRO BETWEEN 5-7 PM...AND AREAS TO THE EAST LATER ON
THIS EVENING. EARLIER THINKING STILL HOLDS...AS SFC-BASED CAPE UP
TO 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KT COULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED SEGMENTS OF TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS.
AFTER HIGH TEMPS GET CLOSE TO 80 IN URBAN NE NJ...AND INTO THE
LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE ON A GUSTY SW FLOW...WINDS SHIFT NW-N
AFTER COLD FROPA AND REMAIN GUSTY IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE
COAST. TEMPS SHOULD DROP INTO THE 50S TONIGHT...WITH 45-50 IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT...WITH GUSTY N
FLOW IN THE MORNING DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SW SEA BREEZES RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN THOSE OF TODAY...
MOSTLY IN THE 60S BUT POSSIBLY NEAR 70 IN URBAN NE NJ.
TEMPS WILL RESPOND QUICKLY TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER
SUNSET ON SAT...WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S IN NYC...40S MOST
ELSEWHERE...35-40 ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR WHERE
PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP...AND CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE COLDEST
SPOTS OF THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH JUST
SLIGHT TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE H5 FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS E OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER THE SERN US. THIS CUTOFF WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUN BEFORE THE NEXT
AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH ABSORBS IT BACK INTO THE FLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A VORTEX OVER NRN CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE HUDSON BAY
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A MEAN TROUGH REMAINING
ACROSS THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL SETTLE TO THE S OVER
THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SE. THIS SFC LOW WILL
TRACK UP THE EAST COAST...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW CLOSE TO
THE COAST IT WILL ACTUALLY BE...DUE TO SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES
ALOFT. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS THIS
PASSES THROUGH MON NIGHT...BUT THEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AS IT
MOVES THROUGH ON TUE. LINGERING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MAY TRIGGER AN
ISOLD SHOWER TUE NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LOW CHC MON NIGHT
AND TUE AS THERE SHOULD BE MEASURABLE PCPN WITH EITHER OF THESE
SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO NOT
THINKING A LOT OF QPF.
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A MEAN UPPER TROUGH...THERE
COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THU.
HOWEVER...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL SPECIFICS CAN BE BETTER
RESOLVED.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MON/MON NIGHT WHEN TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PA WILL ARRIVE AROUND 21Z FOR
THE NYC TERMINALS...PLUS OR MINOR 1-2 HOURS IN THE SURROUNDING
TERMINALS.
COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFT/EARLY EVE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE FROM 23Z TO 02Z ACROSS TERMINAL FORECAST AREA.
GUSTY SW FLOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH JUST AHEAD OF FRONT.
POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW MAY FEATURE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY A VFR FORECAST...BUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH ANY TSRA/SHRA.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MAY BE UP TO AN HOUR
EARLY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MAY BE UP TO AN HOUR
EARLY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MAY BE UP TO AN HOUR
EARLY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MAY BE UP TO AN HOUR
EARLY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MAY BE UP TO AN HOUR
EARLY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MAY BE UP TO AN HOUR
EARLY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY AFTERNOON-MONDAY...VFR.
.TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHC OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
.WEDNESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT NY HARBOR AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.
SCA FOR THE ERN SOUND/BAY/HARBOR HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT...
AS POST-FRONTAL NW-N WINDS AFTER COLD FROPA SHOULD GUST UP TO
25 KT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE W.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ON TUE...AND IN CAA BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT. GUSTS UP TO
20 KT POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN WITH SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF WITH COLD FROPA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS BETWEEN 1/4-1/2
INCH. LOCAL AMTS FROM 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
QPF WITH A COLD FROPA ON TUE IS ONLY ABOUT 1/10 INCH.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ345.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/24
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GOODMAN/24
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...A BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SURFACE PRESSURES TO RISE FOR A NICE AUTUMN WEEKEND WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THE COLUMBUS DAY HOLIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AT LEAST TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR REVEALS A BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THE BACK EDGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACK STATE PARK. PER EXTRAPOLATION OF THESE SHOWERS ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY HRRR UPDATES...SEEMS A LINE OF CONVECTION MAY
EVOLVE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS MAINLY SOUTH OF I90. PER
THE SPC HOURLY ANALYSIS AND AWIPS LAPS DATA...INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WITH RESPECT TO SBCAPES WERE INTO THE LOWER 100S J/KG
AND SHOWALTER VALUES WERE BETWEEN 0-1C. WIND MAGNITUDES PER THE
VWP WERE RESPECTABLE WITH 30-50KTS WITHIN THE MID LEVELS. SO IF
ANY DEEPER CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP...POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS TO OCCUR. PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH CURRENT VALUES
AVERAGING AROUND 1.50 INCHES SO HEAVIER DOWNPOURS REMAIN A
CONCERN. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY HAVE RISEN TO
AROUND 70F YET WITH CLOUDS AND WET CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION...NO MUCH CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
FROPA OCCURS BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A BRISK WESTERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP. CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECASTS SO LITTLE
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING DURING THE EARLY EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF ALBANY AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT TYPICAL FOR MID OCTOBER RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOWER 60S IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL LEAD TO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S...BUT MAINLY UPPER 30S
FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD. SO
THERE COULD BE SOME FROST FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE MID 30S ARE FORECAST...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE
HWO.
AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY
WITH SUNSHINE AND WARMING ALOFT PROVIDED BY A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS AND NEAR 60 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FOR COLUMBUS DAY EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
MILD TEMPERATURES AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE FA DRY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY EXPECT TWO COLD FRONTS TO CROSS THE FA
WITH THE FIRST FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND THE SECOND
COLD FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SECOND COLD
FRONT. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND A TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NY. WITH THIS FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING AT KGFL/KALB...WITH
SHOWERS MOVING INTO KPSF. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IFR/MVFR WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS AT THESE
SITES. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY NORTH OF
KPOU...BUT WILL BE IMPACTING THERE LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS THERE. SOME THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT...BUT IT DOESN/T APPEAR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR KALB.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE W-NW AROUND 10 KTS.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING...BUT DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SHOULD
ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL SITES FOR MOST OF TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
THIS BREEZE...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...SHOULD PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH JUST SOME PASSING HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS. NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY TO COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS AT THIS TIME WITH WET CONDITIONS
DURING FRIDAY TO BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RH WILL INCREASE TO MAXIMUM VALUES BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES
OF AROUND 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 20
MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A STEADY RAIN TO THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BE TAPERING TO SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...TO AROUND AN INCH
AND A QUARTER OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR.
BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE
COLUMBUS DAY WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SOME SHOWERS
ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/BGM/JPV
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1237 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Upper trough axis was moving into eastern Kansas from the northwest
early this morning, with regional radar and surface observations
putting cold front through northern Oklahoma at 08Z. Bands of
showers wear ahead of the trough, with measurable amounts on the
northwest edge hard to come by. Trends put the axis into the far
southern counties at 12Z and will carry a few hours of sprinkles
here. Satellite imagery showing a few other items of interest,
including widespread stratus from northeastern Nebraska east across
much of Iowa and north into Minnesota with high cloud spilling
southwest out of the northern Rockies.
Though somewhat overdone, the latest RAP runs seem to have the best
handle on the stratus to the north/northeast and keep it together
through the morning as north winds usher it south. Given shallow
nature of cold air, think it is a little too pessimistic on the
cloud. Highs will still struggle into the 65-70 range even in good
insolation with 850mb temps 6-8C colder than Thursday. High cloud
should be entering north central Kansas late in the day and continue
southeast overnight. Surface ridge axis will passing through the
area at the same time, so amount/persistence of cirrus and stratus
will be large players in fog potential. At this point there appears
to be enough of a chance for patchy wording in eastern areas,
nearer the ridge and any higher moisture from stratus.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Saturday high temperatures warm back up into the 70s as shortwave
ridge begins to build overhead behind departing trof. This is
amplified Saturday night into Sunday, and lows Saturday night may
be underforecast in the middle to upper 50s as southerly winds and
warm air advection aloft ramp up overnight. As the mid level
thermal ridge approaches from the north on Sunday ahead of the
next front, highs are expected to mix into mid to upper 80s, with
even some low 90s possible.
Front consistently forecast to move through on Sunday night into
Monday morning, bringing cooler temperatures on Monday with highs
in the mid 70s, and could see falling temperatures through the
day. Lows drop back into the 40s on Monday night.
West northwesterly flow remains across the northern into central
plains through the late week, with periodic frontal boundaries
coming southward in the flow. Highs in the 70s with lows in the
50s, with next chance for rain possibly coming toward the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
MVFR conditions persist over KTOP/KFOE while drier air continues
to erode the shallow stratus layer by 20Z. KMHK is VFR through
forecast period as the stratus remains to the east. Confidence is
still moderate in MIFG developing aft 09Z at KTOP/KFOE based on
the low level moisture present this evening. However, high clouds
may mitigate the fog potential so have 3SM going through sunrise.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
154 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN UP AROUND THE BLUEGRASS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. SMALL UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS
AND WX SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER FORECAST GRIDS REMAIN IN GREAT SHAPE IN
TERMS OF OVERALL TIMING AND COVERAGE OF STORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
WSR-88D RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
ISOLATED STORM MAINLY MOVING THROUGH BATH...FLEMING...AND ROWAN
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. GRIDS LOOK FAIRLY ON TRACK AT THIS POINT.
DID MAKE A QUICK UPDATE TO INGEST THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS OVERALL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS. ALSO TWEAKED THE WX AND POP ONES BASED ON THE CURRENT
RADAR IMAGES AND HRRR PROGS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON ITS TREK EAST. A COLD FRONT TRAILS SOUTHWEST FROM THIS
LOW AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLOSER TO HOME...A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO POP UP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...
WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS ARE TAKING SHAPE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUD COVER. THEY ARE
FEEDING ON RELATIVELY ELEVATED DEWPOINTS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
CWA. LOOK FOR THESE CLOUDS AND ROVING SHOWERS TO HELP STIR THE AIR
AND MITIGATE OUR CURRENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT. THE
MOST SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
WHILE RIDGES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. WINDS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS
THEY TAKE A DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY TO END THE WORK WEEK AND START THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST
ECMWF AND NAM12 ARE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE CLUSTERING WITH
THE CORE OF THIS WAVE BUT STILL REASONABLE. THIS TROUGH AND ITS
ENERGY DIVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY WITH
HEIGHTS REBOUNDING BY EVENING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
FOR DETAILS WITH THIS FROPA EVENT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM AROUND INTO THE MORNING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY FROM
THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
PART OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
LIMITED BY THE MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DESPITE DECENT
DEWPOINTS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SOME WIND SHEAR ALOFT...AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS... IN ADDITION TO BRIEF HEAVY RAINS. THE INSTABILITY
WANES DURING THE EVENING WITH THUNDER MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ALONG
THE FRONT. POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AND
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR
HIGHS COMPARED TO THURSDAY AND TODAY.
USED THE SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH
SATURDAY. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNED ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS MORNING/S
LOW TEMPERATURES AND AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR
TO CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
THE PERIOD WILL BEING WITH A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION
AND MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTED
TROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. THE WEATHER PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK
WILL FEATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE COLD...WITH READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND 50
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE
EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THIS BOUT OF RAIN WOULD BE
TRIGGERED BY SLOW AND WEAKENING EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ONCE
THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA...WE SHOULD SEE OTHERWISE DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEHIND
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BRING VIS DOWN TO IFR
AND GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. THEN TONIGHT THE
ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR POST FRONTAL FOG...WENT CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GUIDANCE. GENERALLY MOST SITES WILL HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY TO GO BELOW OR NEAR AIRPORT MINS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND BEHIND FRONT WILL SWITCH
AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
A challenge today will be the cloud forecast; no big surprise there.
We may have to go more pessimistic with the trailing edge/clearing
line of the clouds. The sfc cold front is now through the PAH
forecast area, increasing stability. Any additional showers over
most of the area should be very light. The exception will be near
the TN border for a few hours this afternoon, where a burst of
moderate rain is possible, along with a lightning strike or two.
Also updated the aviation discussion.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 222 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Radar showed showers/isolated thunder to our west approaching.
Front still forecast to move through early today with trailing
mid level energy supporting lift for some shower and possible
thunder activity. Bumped up PoPs a bit, given rather high MOS
numbers. This despite relatively low QPF given marginal overall
moisture. Chances will decrease from NW to SE this afternoon,
ending by end of the day around the KHOP area. High pressure
follows with slightly cooler temperatures and dry weather Saturday
through Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Medium confidence in the extended.
Believe the the extended init along with most models persist in
advertising abundant moisture where it will not exist. This is
evident via current regional or national radar loop which detected
scattered showers and the lightning detection chart indicated
isolated strike or two. This is a great deal less coverage than the
models have been advertising for well over a week now. I believe
this will also come to fruition with Mondays and Fridays cold front
passage. For the aforementioned reasons have trimmed pops back about
five percent from the extended init. That combined with very limited
gulf moisture supply would equate to no mention of rain in the
extended at this time. I cant rule out there may be a sprinkle
around the area Monday but measurable rain is very much in question.
Highs and lows will be very close to normal throughout the extended
with highs in the 70s and lows near or just below 50.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Light showers, with very little vsby restriction, will continue to
move across the TAF sites this afternoon. An MVFR cloud deck is
likely to develop/move swd across the region this afternoon. Low
clouds may linger well into the night at some airports, especially
south of the oh River, though confidence is not high on the length
of time. Nrly winds AOB 10 kts will continue behind a cold front.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1209 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2015
Updated the forecast to adjust POPs with greater POPs near and just
south of the Ohio River for the next few hrs. A few storms have
already popped up this morning with wind signatures of 30-35mph on
radar. Since these storms are a little better than originally
expected, feel that central and southern portions of KY will likely
see scattered to numerous storms this afternoon and a few may be on
the strong side with strong winds being the main threat. The cold
front causing these storms has made it to southern/central portions
of Indiana and should continue to provide forcing for convection
along and south of the front through this evening. Areas north of
the front will enter more of a showery regime.
Issued at 900 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2015
Updated the forecast to increase POPs over central KY from mid
morning through early afternoon. The latest HRRR has a good handle
on precip development over central KY this morning, and it really
develops better coverage of showers with embedded isld-sct t-storms
over central/southern portions of KY late this morning through the
afternoon hours. This seems to match the projected frontal timing
well. So overall, doesn`t look like southern Indiana will see as
much precip as central KY today. Also, because central KY precip
has started a bit earlier than expected, did follow the latest
CONShort guidance with slightly cooler high temps for today. Highs
should range from 72-79.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2015
A cold front stretched from the Great Lakes through the mid-
Mississippi Valley to the Ozarks early this morning will steadily
push across southern Indiana and central Kentucky over the course of
the day today. As the atmosphere slowly destabilizes and upper
energy over the mid-Missouri Valley this morning crosses central
Kentucky this afternoon, convection will break out. Showers are
first expected to develop along and either side of the Ohio River by
late morning. As we head into the afternoon the showers will push
southeast and increase in coverage, with precipitable water values
pooling well above normal around 1.3 to 1.5 inches ahead of the
front. By mid and late afternoon thunderstorms will be possible,
especially southeast of a Bowling Green-Lexington line where lifted
index values should drop to around -5C.
0-6km bulk shear values still look to be on the order of 30-35kt
this afternoon with mid-level winds of 35-40kt. Soundings look
fairly well saturated and forecast DCAPE is very low. Gusty winds
with the heavier downpours will certainly be possible, but
widespread severe weather is not expected.
Given the over achievement of temperatures yesterday, will go with
the high side of guidance today, especially in areas that spend the
most time ahead of the front and convection this afternoon. This
results in MaxT ranging from lo-mid 70s in southern Indiana to lower
80s in southern Kentucky.
Showers will move off to the southeast this evening, with clouds
lingering through the night. Low temperatures will range from upper
40s to middle 50s on 5-10mph north breezes.
Clouds will continue to linger into Saturday morning but by
afternoon most locations should be seeing fair skies as high
pressure invades the Ohio Valley. Temperatures should top out from
the middle 60s to around 70...depending a lot on just how quickly
the clouds scour out.
.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2015
The upper pattern will feature ridging over the SW CONUS and a
shallow trough across the NE for much of the long term. The Ohio
River Valley will lie in the stronger NW flow between the two
features, with a shortwave passing through Monday/Monday night. This
upper feature and its associated cold front will bring the only
chances for rain in the long term.
Saturday Night - Sunday Night...
Cutoff low will anchor of the Carolina coast to end the weekend.
Meanwhile brief upper ridging and surface high pressure will hold
influence. This will lead to mostly clear and dry conditions with
cooler temps behind the front. Lows wil be in the 40s on Saturday
night under good raditional cooling conditions. A few of our cool
valleys will likely drop into the lower 40s. Highs will be back in
the 70s on Sunday as steady SW surface flow returns.
Look for milder lows Sunday night in the upper 40s and low 50s.
Monday - Monday Night...
A shortwave and associated surface cold front pass through to start
the new week, bringing chances for rain showers. Models agree pretty
well on timing with the bulk of activity expected Monday afternoon
through Monday evening. However, there continues to be some
disagreement with the amount of moisture available. 09/00z ECMWF
continues to show a more amplified upper pattern which is able to
draw deeper moisture into the area, with GFS a little less robust.
Continued to compromise between the two which will warrant iso to
widely scattered rain showers mainly across our N and NE CWA.
Went with a blend of raw temps during this advective timeframe,
which will yield most highs in the mid 70s on Monday and lows in the
low 50s Monday night.
Tuesday - Thursday...
Shortwave trough axis and cold front pass east by Tuesday, with a
return to dry NW flow aloft and surface high pressure. Expect a dry
mid week. Temps will initially cool off behind the front on Tuesday
with highs only in the 60s. Tuesday night lows will be in the 40s.
We`ll return to the 70s Wednesday/Thursday with Wednesday night lows
in the lower 50s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 647 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2015
A cold front will cross the region today, bringing a gradual wind
shift from southwest this morning to west midday and northwest by
late afternoon. Showers will develop and spread in from the west
late morning/mid day and proceed to the southeast across central
Kentucky this afternoon. Will account for this with VCSH in the SDF
TAF, and will go ahead and include VCTS/CB in the BWG and LEX TAFs.
The best chance for thunder at BWG/LEX will be during the early to
mid afternoon hours.
It looks as though ceilings will hang around through the night and
into Saturday morning behind the front. Will remain optimistic for
now and keep them just barely VFR, but they may indeed fall to high-
end MVFR levels.
&&
.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........AMS
Short Term.....13
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
115 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT |108 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
RELATIVELY QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD AHEAD. INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN
THIS MORNING IS DEALING WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR HAS PERFORMED WELL IN HANDLING
THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...INDICATING LAST EVENING THAT A HOLE WOULD
BE BLOWN OPEN IN THE CLOUD DECK FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
WESTERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HENCE...INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS MORNING OUT WEST AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER THERE CONTINUES TO
HOLD STRONG. THE EXPECTATION WITH THE CLOUD COVER IS THAT THE DRY
WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION EAST...AND THE CLOUDS
OVER WESTERN MN WILL DO THE SAME...SO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN MN THIS MORNING. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DRYING CONDITIONS AND ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL
DIMINISH THE CLOUD DECK...EXPECT IT TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH THE COOLER AIR MASS AND COME CLOUD
COVER DURING THE DAY...HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN THE UPPER 50S FOR
MOST...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW 60S IN FAR WESTERN MN.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING...SO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE HIGH WILL DEPART THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE`LL
SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
RATHER FEW ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN THIS EXTENDED FCST PKG.
SFC HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER THE GRT LKS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS WHILE A LARGE SFC RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL PROMOTE STRONG WARMING OVER THE UPR MISS
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO STRONG SWLY SFC FLOW AND INCRD H5 HEIGHTS TO
THE 576-579 DAM RANGE. H85 TEMPS WILL INCRS TO ARND 20 DEG C BY
SUN...AND THIS WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING
ATOP THE REGION. THUS...SUNDAY HAS POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MULTIPLE SITES WITHIN THE WFO MPX CWFA. MIXING STILL DOES NOT LOOK
AS OPTIMIZED AS POSSIBLE DUE TO A SLIGHT RELAXING OF THE WIND
FIELDS...THUS TEMPS MAY FALL JUST SHORT BUT STILL HIT THE LWR 80S
FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA.
AN APPROACHING CDFNT FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON WILL BRING A SHARP
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES GOING INTO MON TO THE TUNE OF 15-20
DEGREES COOLER CWFA-WIDE. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FROPA...SO HAVE CONFINED ONLY SLGT CHC POPS TO THE NRN
AND ERN FRINGES OF THE CWFA FOR DURG THE DAY ON MON. HOWEVER...A
VERY TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT ALONG WITH VORTICITY PACKING WITH THE
FROPA WILL MEAN A STRONG INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FOR MONDAY...
POSSIBLY TO WIND ADVY CRITERIA SO WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE MODELS
DEVELOP THIS SCHEME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEYOND MON...THE FCST REMAINS DRY WITH COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. 4000FT CEILINGS WILL LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE CLOSE TO SUNSET. ON SATURDAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...WITH LATE MORNING GUSTS NEAR
20 TO 20 KTS.
KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. 4000FT CEILINGS WILL LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE CLOSE TO SUNSET. ON SATURDAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE...WITH LATE MORNING GUSTS NEAR
20 TO 20 KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSW AT 10G15KT.
MON...VFR AND WINDY. WIND NW AT 20G35KT.
TUE...VFR. WIND WSW AT 15G20KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
222 PM PDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CONCERN AHEAD WILL AN INCREASING LONG PERIOD
SOUTHWEST SWELL TONIGHT WITH HIGH AND STEEP SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.WHILE THE SWELL IS NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE ANY
SURF ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS, IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNEAKER
WAVES. SEE PDXSPSMFR AND PDXMWSMFR FOR DETAILS.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS NEAR THE COAST AND WILL MOVE INLAND
THIS EVENING. SO FAR, NO RETURNS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON THE RADAR AND
NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT ANY OF THE SURFACE OBS. THE 12Z NAM AND
GFS SHOW A WEAK FRONT REACHING THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING
INLAND THIS EVENING. THE NAM IS BULLISH WITH THE QPF THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT SUSPECT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. IN CONTRAST THE GFS
IS DRY AND THE CURRENT RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS AT
THE COAST, MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND LITTLE IS ANYTHING OVERNIGHT.
THIS EVENINGS FRONT WILL BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG FURTHER ON SATURDAY AND MOVE INLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONGER FRONT THAT IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY A 100KT JET WILL REACH THE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
THEN MOVE INLAND SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE AT
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE COAST, COASTAL MOUNTAINS, NORTH CASCADES
AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER, BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.
AT THE SAME TIME 700MB WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AND COULD PEAK
OUT BETWEEN 40-50 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SOME OF
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL SURFACE EAST OF THE CASCADES. THEREFORE
GUSTY WINDS ARE A GOOD BET, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NEAR SUMMER LAKE AND WILL BE STRONGEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THE HIGHER RIDGES
COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA, SO ITS SOMETHING THAT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY WEAK UPPER RIDGING SUNDAY. ANY RAINFALL WILL END EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH DRYING AND MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE EC AND GFS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO
THE REGION STARTING NEXT MONDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND
WE`LL CONTINUE TO HAVE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH VARYING AMOUNTS
OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST, THEREFORE IT`S POSSIBLE
WE COULD HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTH COAST DEPENDING ON
THE POSITION OF THE THERMAL TROUGH. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/18Z TAF CYCLE...INLAND...INLAND AREAS CAN
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE VALLEYS OF THE COASTAL RANGE
AND THE UMPQUA BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ALONG THE COAST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL AFFECT TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL FILL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DEGRADE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS CEILINGS LOWER TO IFR AND THEN LIFR. -BPN
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PDT FRIDAY, 9 OCT 2015...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND SOUTHWEST SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF FRONTS ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FIRST FRONT. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST
SWELL FROM THE REMNANTS OF CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE OHO WILL
ARRIVE. THIS 11 TO 14 FOOT SWELL AT 16 SECONDS IS LIKELY TO RESULT
IN 15 TO 20 FOOT BREAKER HEIGHTS. SWELL OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS UNUSUAL
FOR THIS AREA, AND A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT SPSMFR HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED TO DISCUSS
PROBABLE IMPACTS TO BEACH GOERS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS,
WHILE SEAS LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN TO HAZARDOUS AND VERY STEEP
CATEGORY AS THE SOUTHWEST SWELL DECREASES BUT COMBINES WITH AN
INCREASING LONGER PERIOD WEST SWELL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 300 PM PDT FRIDAY, 9 OCT 2015... THE FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS HAS ARRIVED AT THE COASTTODAY,
BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THERE BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONGIHT. THIS HAS ALSO BROUGHTG SOME GUSTY WINDS TO THE EAST SIDE
TODAY. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
ONTO THE COAST WITH SOME WETTING RAINFALL EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY.
WETTING RAINS ARE LESS LIKELY IN OTHER WEST SIDE LOCATIONS...AND
VERY UNLIKELY EAST OF THE CASCADES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES
EASTWARD, BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CRITICAL.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE
LIKELY TO FALL TO ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. -
BPN/SK
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 5
PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
919 AM PDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE MARINE WATERS. SO FAR, NO RETURNS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON THE RADAR AND NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT ANY
OF THE SURFACE OBS. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAK FRONT REACHING
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MOVING INLAND THIS EVENING. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE BULLISH WITH THE QPF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT SUSPECT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. IN CONTRAST THE GFS IS
DRY AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWS VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS AT THE
COAST, MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WE`LL MEASURE AT ALL GIVEN THE
FRONT IS WEAK AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND.
THUS HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT
STILL KEPT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTH COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF WE GET ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL, IT
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH.
A STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO THE COAST, COASTAL
MOUNTAINS NORTH CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. THE NAM
SHOWS A DONUT HOLE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WHICH IS MOSTLY A RESULT OF
DOWNSLOPING, SO DOUBT WE`LL GET ANYTHING MEASURABLE HERE.
-PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/12Z TAF CYCLE...INLAND...VFR IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING
THEN CEILINGS WITH BASES 4000 TO 6000 FT AGL WILL AFFECT
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON AROUND 17Z.
ALONG THE COAST...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL AFFECT TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE.
MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED JUST OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND WILL
AFFECT THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING...WITH RAIN POSSIBLE BY NOON.
CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE THIS EVENING AT THE COAST AS CEILINGS LOWER
TO IFR AND THEN LIFR.
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 9 AM PDT FRIDAY, 9 OCT 2015...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND SOUTHWEST SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF FRONTS ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FIRST FRONT. THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST
SWELL FROM THE REMNANTS OF CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE OHO WILL
ARRIVE. THIS 11 TO 14 FOOT SWELL AT 16 SECONDS IS LIKELY TO RESULT
IN 15 TO 20 FOOT BREAKER HEIGHTS. SWELL OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS UNUSUAL
FOR THIS AREA, AND A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT SPSMFR HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED TO DISCUSS
PROBABLE IMPACTS TO BEACH GOERS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS,
WHILE SEAS LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN TO HAZARDOUS AND VERY STEEP
CATEGORY AS THE SOUTHWEST SWELL DECREASES BUT COMBINES WITH AN
INCREASING LONGER PERIOD WEST SWELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM PDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
DISCUSSION...THE REMNANT LOW THAT WAS HURRICANE OHO IS MOVING
INTO B.C. THIS MORNING AND WILL HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. HOWEVER, LARGE SWELLS FROM THE STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH
OUR WATERS AND IMPACT THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY. WHILE THE SWELL IS NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE ANY
SURF ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS, IT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNEAKER
WAVES. SEE PDXSPSMFR AND PDXMWSMFR FOR DETAILS.
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL
FINALLY MOVE EAST TODAY AND ALLOW A WEAK FRONT TO MOVE ONSHORE.
THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH RAIN TO WET THE GROUND ALONG THE
COAST, BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. POPS WERE RAISED TO LIKELY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH
PROGRESS INLAND. INLAND FROM THE COAST, WE`LL CONTINUE TO SEE LOTS
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD AND MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR TWO NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE. BUT LIKE RECENT DAYS, THIS WON`T KEEP US FROM
WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE FIRST FRONT FALLS APART TONIGHT, AND THEN A SECOND, STRONGER
FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WILL PACK MORE
MOISTURE AND BE AIDED BY A 100 KT PLUS UPPER JET. AS A RESULT,
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, ADJACENT COASTAL RANGES, THE
UMPQUA BASIN, AND INTO THE NORTH CASCADES. RAIN PROBABLY WON`T
MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO MEDFORD, BUT THERE EXISTS ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE THAT POPS WERE ALSO RAISED FOR THE ROGUE VALLEY. WE WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME SPILL OVER INTO CHEMULT AREA, BUT THAT IS LIKELY
THE EXTENT OF IT FOR THE EAST SIDE. MOST AREAS OVER THERE WILL
STAY DRY. HOWEVER, STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL LIKELY SURFACE TO SOME
DEGREE EAST OF THE CASCADES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT
WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS, BUT ESPECIALLY AT
PLACES LIKE SUMMER LAKE AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND,
BUT THIS JUST MEANS TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL, NOT NECESSARILY
COOL FOR OCTOBER. ON MONDAY, WE`LL START TO WARM BACK UP AGAIN AS
HEIGHTS START TO RISE. AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
PACNW THROUGH NEXT WEEK, AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AGAIN ALONG
THE COAST. THIS WILL MEAN A RETURN TO WARM, DRY WEATHER AGAIN FOR
ALL AREAS INLAND FROM THE COAST AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE COAST ITSELF
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL TROUGH. AT
THE VERY LEAST, THE CURRY COAST WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW DAYS OF WARM
WEATHER WITH OFFSHORE FLOW NEXT WEEK. -WRIGHT
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 500 AM PDT FRIDAY, 9 OCT 2015... THE FIRST
IN A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL REACH COASTAL AREAS TODAY WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THERE BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING INCREASING WINDS TO THE EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON. SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ONTO THE COAST
WITH SOME WETTING RAINFALL EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE, PRIMARILY
ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS DOUGLAS COUNTY. WETTING RAINS
ARE LESS LIKELY IN OTHER WEST SIDE LOCATIONS...AND VERY UNLIKELY
EAST OF THE CASCADES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD, BUT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CRITICAL. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE LIKELY TO FALL
TO ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. SK
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
314 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NO SHORT TERM IMPACTS EXPECTED AS DRIER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING TO
RETROGRADE WEST TOWARDS THE BAJA OF MEXICO. A LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
WAS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THAT WILL USER IN A DRIER
AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK BOUNDARY/FRONT IS NOTED NORTH OF THE
REGION ALONG A DALLAS TO MIDLAND LINE. SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK DUE TO TO HIGHER CLOUDS
FROM THE PREVIOUS COMPLEX. HAVE PLACED A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH 7PM FOR THIS ACTIVITY. SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SHOWERS TO DRIZZLE ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
BUT NO TRUE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE LAST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AND BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS FALLING
TO 1.3-1.5". THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
READINGS WILL BE NEAR 10F OVER THE TYPICAL VALUES THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MAX HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AREA WIDE. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SOURCES OF LIFT OR INSTABILITY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY
DESPITE BEING BRUSHED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST
SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM BUT A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THAT COULD BRING
SOME RAIN/TSTORM CHANCES AS WELL AS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WORK WEEK...MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A DEEPER
ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL AID A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARDS AND THROUGH
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN NEAR LOCK STEP
WITH EACH OTHER INDICATING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS EARLIER OR LATER COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF TSTORM STRENGTH. AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER...AVAILABLE THERMODYNAMICS WOULD SUPPORT SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT OVERALL SET UP
WOULD NOT FAVOR A FLOODING OR SEVERE RISK AT THIS TIME. HAVE PLACED
20-30% TSTORM CHANCES AND WILL MONITOR TIMING/PARAMETER TRENDS.
DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S-30S WHICH
WOULD DROP THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL AS MORNING
LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS COULD DROP INTO THE LOW 50S
FOR NORTH HALF AND INTO THE HILL COUNTRY THOSE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S. PWATS WILL DROP TO THE LOWEST THEY HAVE BEEN THIS FALL
SEASON WITH READINGS BELOW 0.3" IN THE NORTH. THIS LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES NIL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 89 68 90 68 94 / 20 20 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 86 66 90 63 94 / 20 20 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 86 69 91 66 95 / 50 20 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 66 87 65 94 / 30 30 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 81 68 88 69 91 / 50 30 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 66 88 64 93 / 20 20 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 82 68 91 66 94 / 90 20 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 86 68 90 65 93 / 20 20 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 68 90 64 93 / 20 20 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 70 91 68 93 / 80 20 - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 85 71 92 68 95 / 90 20 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1239 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 18Z TAF PERIOD...
RAINFALL HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING BKN VFR
CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND SCATTER OUT. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE OUT AT KDRT
WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR ABOVE 2KFT BUT
MOSTLY VFR TO PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
UPDATE...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE DROPPED IN WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING COMPLEX OVER THE REGION. HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO DROPPED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR.
MAX HIGHS WERE TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER.
SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
DISCUSSION...THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS OVERNIGHT IS SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL AND
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT CONTINUES TO WANE. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER MAVERICK AND PORTIONS OF UVALDE AND ZAVALA
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WHERE FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY
A 20-30% CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE CURRENT OVER-WORKED
ATMOSPHERE AND INSTABILITY NOT LIKELY TO REGAIN A FOOT HOLD GREATER
THAN 1000 J/KG OUT WEST...FEEL ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND POINTS WEST OF 35
CORRIDOR.
MORE OF THE LONGER TERM FOR THE DRIER WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK IN THE
MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
UPDATE... /REVISED POPS SLIGHTLY IN FIRST 6 HOURS/
ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND CONTRACT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. POPS WERE REVISED TO REFLECT THE
IMPACT OF A COOL POOL OF AIR THAT HAS ENHANCED A N-S ORIENTED
CONVECTIVE LINE WHICH WILL REACH A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE PRIOR
FORECAST HAD. THUS LIKELY POPS ARE NOW ENTERED FOR THE WESTERN
PART OF THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA. RAPID STORM WEAKENING IS
FORECAST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS BY RAPID REFRESH MODELS. WITH
THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LEADING EDGE AT 10-12
KNOTS...THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO HIT A WALL OF STABILITY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES HIGHWAY 281 LATE THIS MORNING. 6 AM-9 AM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MAINLY 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE OVER THE STRONGER
PORTIONS OF THE COMPLEX.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED JUST EAST OF
DEL RIO AND ARE INCHING CLOSER TO THE SAN ANTONIO SITES. WILL
INCLUDE VCSH AT THESE SITES FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR STRATUS IS
IN PLACE AT KSAT AND SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN MCV THAT MOVED THROUGH EAGLE PASS NEWD TO NEAR UVA EARLY THIS
MORNING IS LOSING MOMENTUM. RECENT DPR VALUES OVER 6 INCHES
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSE RAINFALL EVENTS
OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35. THE INFLUENCE OF THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CONTRACT...WITH BROAD AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN INTO
THE AREA HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DIRECTION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND SHOULD HAVE A RAPID DECREASE IN INFLUENCE OVER THE
AREA. THE MCV IS BEST INITIALIZED BY HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
NSSL WRF AND HRRR ALBEIT A BIT TOO FAR WEST. THESE RUNS CURVE THE
MCV CLOCKWISE TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE TEETH OF THE 20-25 KT RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LLJ WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY. BY
DAYBREAK...MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL SHOW THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF
TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS THE MORE MODERATE RAINS
MAY HAVE ON SOAKED SOILS.
LATE IN THE DAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE DESPITE
A MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX. WHILE THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DOWNWARD TREND IN RAIN
CHANCES...WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SWELL OF HIGHER PWAT VALUES PULLED IN BY THE MCV AND
ASSOCIATED MODERATE RAIN AREA TO THE NORTH. STABILITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SPILLING IN. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE ANY RELIEF FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL START TO OCTOBER...AND
WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS SATURDAY THANKS TO THE DECREASE
IN CLOUDS OVER TODAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH THE WWD DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC...UPPER
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER TX WITH AN AXIS ALIGNED WITH GENERALLY
WITH THE RIO GRANDE OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW TO MID
90S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE THE AXIS REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE AREA. A SLIGHT WWD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE WILL COINCIDE
WITH A PROGRESSIVE POLAR TROUGH PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHT INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
TX MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME WEAK
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO RICHER MOISTURE TOWARD THE COAST.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SMOOTH AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH LEFT OVER
MUCH OF THE NRN US IN THE WAKE OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...WITH WEAK
RIDGING ANCHORED TO THE WEST OF TX KEEPING AN INFLUENCE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR EXPECTED...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMALS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY OFF THE HOT DAYS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 67 90 68 94 71 / 20 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 64 90 64 93 67 / 10 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 92 67 95 69 / 20 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 64 87 66 93 69 / 20 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 69 88 69 91 68 / 20 - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 65 89 65 93 69 / 20 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 66 91 67 93 67 / 20 - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 90 65 93 68 / 20 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 67 90 66 93 69 / 10 - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 68 90 69 93 70 / 20 - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 69 94 69 / 20 - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1154 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.UPDATE...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE DROPPED IN WAKE OF THE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING COMPLEX OVER THE REGION. HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO DROPPED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR.
MAX HIGHS WERE TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER.
SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT MOVED
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS OVERNIGHT IS SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL AND
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT CONTINUES TO WANE. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER MAVERICK AND PORTIONS OF UVALDE AND ZAVALA
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT WHERE FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ONLY
A 20-30% CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WITH THE CURRENT OVER-WORKED
ATMOSPHERE AND INSTABILITY NOT LIKELY TO REGAIN A FOOT HOLD GREATER
THAN 1000 J/KG OUT WEST...FEEL ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND POINTS WEST OF 35
CORRIDOR.
MORE OF THE LONGER TERM FOR THE DRIER WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK IN THE
MAIN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
UPDATE... /REVISED POPS SLIGHTLY IN FIRST 6 HOURS/
ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND CONTRACT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. POPS WERE REVISED TO REFLECT THE
IMPACT OF A COOL POOL OF AIR THAT HAS ENHANCED A N-S ORIENTED
CONVECTIVE LINE WHICH WILL REACH A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE PRIOR
FORECAST HAD. THUS LIKELY POPS ARE NOW ENTERED FOR THE WESTERN
PART OF THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA. RAPID STORM WEAKENING IS
FORECAST IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS BY RAPID REFRESH MODELS. WITH
THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LEADING EDGE AT 10-12
KNOTS...THE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO HIT A WALL OF STABILITY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES HIGHWAY 281 LATE THIS MORNING. 6 AM-9 AM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MAINLY 1 TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE OVER THE STRONGER
PORTIONS OF THE COMPLEX.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED JUST EAST OF
DEL RIO AND ARE INCHING CLOSER TO THE SAN ANTONIO SITES. WILL
INCLUDE VCSH AT THESE SITES FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR STRATUS IS
IN PLACE AT KSAT AND SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN MCV THAT MOVED THROUGH EAGLE PASS NEWD TO NEAR UVA EARLY THIS
MORNING IS LOSING MOMENTUM. RECENT DPR VALUES OVER 6 INCHES
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSE RAINFALL EVENTS
OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35. THE INFLUENCE OF THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CONTRACT...WITH BROAD AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY. THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN INTO
THE AREA HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DIRECTION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AND SHOULD HAVE A RAPID DECREASE IN INFLUENCE OVER THE
AREA. THE MCV IS BEST INITIALIZED BY HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE
NSSL WRF AND HRRR ALBEIT A BIT TOO FAR WEST. THESE RUNS CURVE THE
MCV CLOCKWISE TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE TEETH OF THE 20-25 KT RIO
GRANDE PLAINS LLJ WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY. BY
DAYBREAK...MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED...
BUT WILL SHOW THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF
TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS THE MORE MODERATE RAINS
MAY HAVE ON SOAKED SOILS.
LATE IN THE DAY RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE DESPITE
A MODELS SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX. WHILE THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DOWNWARD TREND IN RAIN
CHANCES...WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE SWELL OF HIGHER PWAT VALUES PULLED IN BY THE MCV AND
ASSOCIATED MODERATE RAIN AREA TO THE NORTH. STABILITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SPILLING IN. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE ANY RELIEF FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL START TO OCTOBER...AND
WILL ACTUALLY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS SATURDAY THANKS TO THE DECREASE
IN CLOUDS OVER TODAY.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH THE WWD DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC...UPPER
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER TX WITH AN AXIS ALIGNED WITH GENERALLY
WITH THE RIO GRANDE OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW TO MID
90S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHILE THE AXIS REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE AREA. A SLIGHT WWD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE WILL COINCIDE
WITH A PROGRESSIVE POLAR TROUGH PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SLIGHT INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
TX MONDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. SOME WEAK
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY...MAINLY AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO RICHER MOISTURE TOWARD THE COAST.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A SMOOTH AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH LEFT OVER
MUCH OF THE NRN US IN THE WAKE OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...WITH WEAK
RIDGING ANCHORED TO THE WEST OF TX KEEPING AN INFLUENCE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR EXPECTED...DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE REST OF THE EXTENDED SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMALS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY OFF THE HOT DAYS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 67 90 68 94 / 20 20 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 64 90 64 93 / 20 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 86 68 92 67 95 / 50 20 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 64 87 66 93 / 30 20 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 84 69 88 69 91 / 50 20 - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 65 89 65 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 85 66 91 67 93 / 90 20 - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 67 90 65 93 / 20 20 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 67 90 66 93 / 20 10 - 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 68 90 69 93 / 80 20 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 69 91 69 94 / 90 20 - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30