Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/08/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
845 AM MST TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
STATE TODAY AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT THE COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE LOW WE`VE BEEN STARING AT THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
NOW IN WESTERN ARIZONA ON A TRACK FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWED ADDITIONAL DRYING
BETWEEN 600-700HPA AS EXPECTED...BUT THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS NOW
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH
ARE NOW PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE LOW.
TWO SPOKES OF ENERGY ARE NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING...WITH THE FIRST
WEAKER ONE PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...AND A SECOND
STRONGER ONE THROUGH YUMA COUNTY ATTM. WE`LL ADD IN SOME DECENT
SHEAR (BUT NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY)...AND A LITTLE SOLAR
INSOLATION TO FIRE SOME STORMS THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PIMA
COUNTY BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE
BEST SHEAR AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS NOW LOOKS
LIKE IT`S COMING TOGETHER NORTH OF TUCSON...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
PINAL...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES.
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/16Z.
SCT TO LOCALLY BKN-OVC CLOUDS 6-10 KFT WITH ISOLD -SHRA AND THEN
SCTD -SHRA/TS AFTER 06/18Z AREA-WIDE. GUSTY WINDS PSBL AGAIN AFTER
18Z ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH TSRA AS WELL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY
EAST OF TUCSON WITH LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MIDWEEK...THEN MODERATING LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...LOW FILLING A BIT BUT STILL HAS SOME PUNCH AS IT
PUSHES SLOWLY INTO WESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER STILL A LITTLE MARGINAL WITH SOME DRYING ABOVE H7...BUT
PICKING UP AGAIN A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WRAPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE
LOW WITH 1 INCH VALUES AVAILABLE THERE. THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON AN
ENHANCED SPOKE OF ENERGY FROM THE BASE OF THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING IS FORMING
INITIALLY THROUGH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY INTO PINAL COUNTY BUT IN A
MODEST SHEAR REGION. THE MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD SEES THIS
AREA OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COME TOGETHER WITH A NICE SHEAR REGIME
THROUGH EASTERN PIMA COUNTY FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
TUCSON METRO. BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE FAVORED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM AREA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN PINAL AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS A THREAT ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...STORM MOTION WILL BE ON THE BRISK SIDE SO WE WOULD
NEED SOME TRAINING TO SEE ANY FLOOD THREATS. MOST LIKELY TRAINING
AREAS WOULD PROBABLY BE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN SLOPES NEAR
MOUNTAINS (POSSIBLY INCLUDING CATALINA FOOTHILLS).
INFLUENCES OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY EAST OF TUCSON AS IT WOBBLES
THROUGH.
ACTUALLY...THIS LOW IS GOING TO FINALLY LOSE ANY LAST VESTIGES OF
HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT LATER TODAY AND WILL THEN RESPOND TO MEAN
FLOW INFLUENCES BELOW 40N...WHICH MEANS IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
FILL AND SAG DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE NEAR THE
WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THEN RETROGRADE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MEXICO UNDER THE RIDGE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A MATTER OF FACT
IT`S VERY LIKELY WE WILL STILL BE TALKING ABOUT THIS LOW INFLUENCING
OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS IT TRIES TO COME BY FOR ANOTHER PASS FROM
THE WEST.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A GENERAL WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL AS A RELATIVE DRYING TREND.
HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AROUND SOME MOUNTAIN AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS AS THE LOW REMAINS IN OUR GENERAL
VICINITY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
315 AM MST TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
STATE TODAY AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT THE COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LOW FILLING A BIT BUT STILL HAS SOME PUNCH AS IT
PUSHES SLOWLY INTO WESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER STILL A LITTLE MARGINAL WITH SOME DRYING ABOVE H7...BUT
PICKING UP AGAIN A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WRAPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE
LOW WITH 1 INCH VALUES AVAILABLE THERE. THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON AN
ENHANCED SPOKE OF ENERGY FROM THE BASE OF THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING IS FORMING
INITIALLY THROUGH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY INTO PINAL COUNTY BUT IN A
MODEST SHEAR REGION. THE MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD SEES THIS
AREA OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COME TOGETHER WITH A NICE SHEAR REGIME
THROUGH EASTERN PIMA COUNTY FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
TUCSON METRO. BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE FAVORED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM AREA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN PINAL AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS A THREAT ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...STORM MOTION WILL BE ON THE BRISK SIDE SO WE WOULD
NEED SOME TRAINING TO SEE ANY FLOOD THREATS. MOST LIKELY TRAINING
AREAS WOULD PROBABLY BE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN SLOPES NEAR
MOUNTAINS (POSSIBLY INCLUDING CATALINA FOOTHILLS).
INFLUENCES OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY EAST OF TUCSON AS IT WOBBLES
THROUGH.
ACTUALLY...THIS LOW IS GOING TO FINALLY LOSE ANY LAST VESTIGES OF
HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT LATER TODAY AND WILL THEN RESPOND TO MEAN
FLOW INFLUENCES BELOW 40N...WHICH MEANS IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
FILL AND SAG DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE NEAR THE
WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THEN RETROGRADE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MEXICO UNDER THE RIDGE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A MATTER OF FACT
IT`S VERY LIKELY WE WILL STILL BE TALKING ABOUT THIS LOW INFLUENCING
OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS IT TRIES TO COME BY FOR ANOTHER PASS FROM
THE WEST.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A GENERAL WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL AS A RELATIVE DRYING TREND.
HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AROUND SOME MOUNTAIN AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS AS THE LOW REMAINS IN OUR GENERAL
VICINITY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/12Z.
SCT TO LOCALLY BKN-OVC CLOUDS 6-10 KFT WITH ISOLD -SHRA AND THEN
SCTD -SHRA/TS AFTER 06/18Z AREA-WIDE. GUSTY WINDS PSBL AGAIN AFTER
18Z ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH TSRA AS WELL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY
EAST OF TUCSON WITH LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MIDWEEK...THEN MODERATING LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/RASMUSSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1148 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
UPDATED FOR MORE CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
CURRENTLY...
UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED VICINITY LAS VEGAS. QUITE A FEW SHOWERS/TSRA
WERE NOTED OVER UTAH AND ACROSS W CO. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ALONG THE CONTDVD AT 3 AM...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY IN THE N
SANGRES. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE RATON MESA IN NM...AND UP IN NORTHEAST CO.
TODAY...
EXPECT TO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FAR E PLAINS AND N EL PASO COUNTY.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/TSRA OVER THE MTNS
TODAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT ALOFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO GET ADVECTED NWD AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST. OVERALL BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BY LATER IN THE DAY...PRECIP WILL DEVELOP FARTHER
EAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AS DIFFLUENT FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES OVER THIS REGION.
SOME SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH MARGINAL CAPE. WE MAY SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...AND LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME RED CORES MOVING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION LATER TODAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED SOME AREAS NW OF PIKES PEAK
RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN YDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM AGAIN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F
ON THE PLAINS...AND 60S AND 70S VALLEYS.
TONIGHT...
EXPECT MORE MID LVL CLOUDS ON THE PLAINS. OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH BEST CHANCES REMAINING
OVER THE SW MTNS AND PIKES PEAK REGION. UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE
BACK TOWARDS THE S-SW LATER TONIGHT. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN COLORADO...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS. EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER TO
TURN DRY AND WARM BY THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE WEAK ENERGY
MOVES ACROSS COLORADO IN INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE MOST ACTIVE DAY APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
ENERGY WRAPPING NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING...INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...EXPANDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS FAVORING
THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND RATON MESA REGIONS AND
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERN
COLORADO BECOMING MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO WORK EASTWARD ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT EVEN LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH GENERALLY 70S ACROSS
THE REGION.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...A GOOD 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
SCATTERED TO NUMERSOUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND
DIFLUENCE ALOFT AS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT PUB AND ALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
THREAT OF STORMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. COS COULD SEE
SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS IF STORMS AND
OUTFLOWS MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT COS...IF SKIES CLEAR EARLIER
THAN EXPECTED.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
919 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
UPDATED FOR MORE CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
CURRENTLY...
UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED VICINITY LAS VEGAS. QUITE A FEW SHOWERS/TSRA
WERE NOTED OVER UTAH AND ACROSS W CO. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ALONG THE CONTDVD AT 3 AM...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY IN THE N
SANGRES. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE RATON MESA IN NM...AND UP IN NORTHEAST CO.
TODAY...
EXPECT TO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FAR E PLAINS AND N EL PASO COUNTY.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/TSRA OVER THE MTNS
TODAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT ALOFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO GET ADVECTED NWD AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST. OVERALL BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BY LATER IN THE DAY...PRECIP WILL DEVELOP FARTHER
EAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AS DIFFLUENT FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES OVER THIS REGION.
SOME SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH MARGINAL CAPE. WE MAY SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...AND LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME RED CORES MOVING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION LATER TODAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED SOME AREAS NW OF PIKES PEAK
RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN YDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM AGAIN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F
ON THE PLAINS...AND 60S AND 70S VALLEYS.
TONIGHT...
EXPECT MORE MID LVL CLOUDS ON THE PLAINS. OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH BEST CHANCES REMAINING
OVER THE SW MTNS AND PIKES PEAK REGION. UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE
BACK TOWARDS THE S-SW LATER TONIGHT. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN COLORADO...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS. EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER TO
TURN DRY AND WARM BY THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE WEAK ENERGY
MOVES ACROSS COLORADO IN INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE MOST ACTIVE DAY APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
ENERGY WRAPPING NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING...INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...EXPANDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS FAVORING
THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND RATON MESA REGIONS AND
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERN
COLORADO BECOMING MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO WORK EASTWARD ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT EVEN LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH GENERALLY 70S ACROSS
THE REGION.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...A GOOD 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES..KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. LOTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION NEXT 24H AS UPPER LOW KEEPS ADVECTING MSTR OVER THE AREA.
BELIEVE MID LVL CLOUDINESS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING OVER THE
TAF SITES...BUT IF WE CLEAR OUT THEN I CANT RULE IT OUT. WE WILL
ALSO HAVE PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
403 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
CURRENTLY...
UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED VICINITY LAS VEGAS. QUITE A FEW SHOWERS/TSRA
WERE NOTED OVER UTAH AND ACROSS W CO. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ALONG THE CONTDVD AT 3 AM...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY IN THE N
SANGRES. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE RATON MESA IN NM...AND UP IN NORTHEAST CO.
TODAY...
EXPECT TO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FAR E PLAINS AND N EL PASO COUNTY.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/TSRA OVER THE MTNS
TODAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT ALOFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO GET ADVECTED NWD AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST. OVERALL BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BY LATER IN THE DAY...PRECIP WILL DEVELOP FARTHER
EAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AS DIFFLUENT FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES OVER THIS REGION.
SOME SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH MARGINAL CAPE. WE MAY SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...AND LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME RED CORES MOVING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION LATER TODAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED SOME AREAS NW OF PIKES PEAK
RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN YDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM AGAIN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F
ON THE PLAINS...AND 60S AND 70S VALLEYS.
TONIGHT...
EXPECT MORE MID LVL CLOUDS ON THE PLAINS. OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH BEST CHANCES REMAINING
OVER THE SW MTNS AND PIKES PEAK REGION. UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE
BACK TOWARDS THE S-SW LATER TONIGHT. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN COLORADO...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS. EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER TO
TURN DRY AND WARM BY THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE WEAK ENERGY
MOVES ACROSS COLORADO IN INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE MOST ACTIVE DAY APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
ENERGY WRAPPING NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING...INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...EXPANDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS FAVORING
THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND RATON MESA REGIONS AND
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERN
COLORADO BECOMING MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO WORK EASTWARD ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT EVEN LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH GENERALLY 70S ACROSS
THE REGION.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...A GOOD 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES..KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. LOTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION NEXT 24H AS UPPER LOW KEEPS ADVECTING MSTR OVER THE AREA.
BELIEVE MID LVL CLOUDINESS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING OVER THE
TAF SITES...BUT IF WE CLEAR OUT THEN I CANT RULE IT OUT. WE WILL
ALSO HAVE PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
708 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
SOME PASSING CLOUDS. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL RETURN THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT...A WEAK COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS HARD TO DEPICT IN
SFC OBS...WITH A VERY SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND DROP IN DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AS WELL AS THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.
3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION PASSING NORTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT. A LACK OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FORCING SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING OUTSIDE A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FA FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATER TONIGHT. SKY COVER
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN 40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR TOMORROW...ALLOWING
FOR A COMPLETELY DRY DAY. SKY COVER WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. DESPITE THE FULL SUNSHINE...TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE FEW PAST DAYS DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FOR THURSDAY EVENING...AS A STORM
SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST...AND HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND SEACOAST. WITH A WARM FRONT QUICKLY
ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SOME RAIN WILL START TO SPREAD
TOWARDS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
PROBABLY WON/T PICK UP IN INTENSITY UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY...MOST AREAS WILL BE SEEING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTO NW CT...WHERE THE RAIN MAY BE MISSING THESE AREAS
JUST TO THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE MILDER DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...WITH MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY...THE NEARBY PASSING LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON FRIDAY LOOK HEAVIEST FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS
COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW CT.
RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF ON FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. IN TOTAL...AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN
WILL FALL FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH FOR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS. A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ADIRONDACKS...ESP FOR W-SW FACING SLOPES...WHERE UPSLOPE
MAY INCREASE RAINFALL. TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A GENERALLY DRY...AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS THE NORTHERN JETSTREAM DOMINATES.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE MON NT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION...AS
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE NEAR OR
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY REDUCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AN
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND SFC COLD FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO
ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WARM/COLD ADVECTION WITH EACH PASSING
IMPULSE. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
SHOULD BE MON-TUE...BEFORE POTENTIALLY TRENDING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.
HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...
SAT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS SAT AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY
BE COOL ON SAT/SAT NT...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAT
NT/SUN AM WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
30S. SOME FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON REMAINS. BY SUN...AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WIND DEVELOPING. SUN NT/MON AM SHOULD BE MILDER THAN SAT NT/SUN
AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE 40S. THEN ON MON...A CONTINUES S/SW
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST 65-70 IN VALLEYS...AND
60-65 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER
TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEYS.
MON NT-WED...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MON NT INTO TUE. AGAIN...THERE ARE SOME MIXED SIGNALS
AS TO WHETHER THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE BEING DEFLECTED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE...OR IF ANY OFFSHORE SYSTEM REMAINS
WEAKER AND/OR NON EXISTENT...AND ALLOWS FOR A GREATER INFLUX OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. FOR NOW...HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR LATE MON NT INTO TUE...HIGHEST ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSER TO STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY BECOMES MORE DEFINITIVE. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION LATER TUE NT...AND OFF THE EAST COAST WED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD MON
NT/TUE AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME
WARMER MINS POSSIBLE. TUE MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S
IN VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT IS ANY SLOWER...EVEN WARMER TEMPS COULD
OCCUR. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 40S...THEN
ONLY RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WED...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY
RISE INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE THURSDAY WHICH MAY REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO MVFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN EARLY THIS EVENING
AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANY CEILING THAT
DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS.
ANY PATCHY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z THURSDAY ALONG
WITH ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT BETWEEN 4-8 KNOTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...RH VALUES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT NW
BREEZE.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 40 TO 45 PERCENT ON THURSDAY WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 MPH OR
LESS. RH VALUES WILL RETURN BACK TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT AGAIN WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
ON FRIDAY...RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO 6O TO 75 PERCENT WITH A
WETTING RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...TO AROUND AN INCH
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR. BEHIND THIS STORM
SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IRL/11
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1001 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CONTINUE IN THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN AND
ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTLINE...
.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TONIGHT WITH COOL CONDITIONS AND
CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE OUT
OF THE EAST. EXPECT AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW FOR SURFACE MOISTURE
TO INCREASE WITH ONSHORE FLOW. AS MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES FALL DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN GA TO
THE MID 60S IN CENTRAL FLORIDA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
WATER LEVELS ELEVATED ALONG THE ST.JOHNS AND NE FL COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS
REGARDING FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS EXISTS AT GNV WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE EITHER FOG OR LOW STRATUS. THE HRRR IS RATHER
ROBUST WITH LOW STRATUS ACROSS OUR FAR INLAND ZONES LATE TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE ATLANTIC GOING INTO THURSDAY WITH A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD AROUND 2500 TO 3500 FEET. A FEW COASTAL
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. SEAS STILL
GENERALLY 3-5 FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP ADVISORY
HEADLINES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND HAVE DROPPED EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE NEARSHORE.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AND 3-5 FT BREAKERS/SURF WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND EXPECT LINGERING MODERATE RISK ON
THURSDAY IN THE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 57 85 64 86 / 0 0 0 20
SSI 65 80 71 83 / 0 10 10 20
JAX 63 85 68 85 / 0 10 10 20
SGJ 68 83 72 82 / 0 20 20 20
GNV 62 87 67 87 / 0 10 10 30
OCF 64 87 68 87 / 10 20 10 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL DUVAL-
COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CLAY-COASTAL
DUVAL-FLAGLER-INLAND DUVAL-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
WALSH/SHULER/COMBS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
911 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HALIFAX RIVER BASIN OF NORTH VOLUSIA
COUNTY THROUGH HIGH TIDE EARLY THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD FROM THE MID ATLC SEABOARD THIS EVENING
WILL PRODUCE A VEERING OF WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA. PRESENCE OF A
NLY COMPONENT OVER THE LAND AREAS WL INDUCE MODEST COASTAL
CONVERGENCE DESPITE THE RELATIVELY LOWER WIND SPEEDS. LTST RADAR
IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SOME COASTAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY S OF ST
LUCIE INLET WITH SOME INLAND PROGRESSION OVER MARTIN CO. HRRR GUID
FAVORS THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE CST AND SLIGHTLY INLAND OVER THE TREASURE COAST AND THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT A SMALL CHC OF MEASURABLE
SHOWERS FOR THE COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR. ISOLD -SHRA ALG CST FM KVRB-KFPR-KSUA
OVERNIGHT WITH BRIEF CIGS PSBL NR FL 030-040FT THROUGH 08/14Z.
&&
.MARINE...LTST OBS REFLECT STEADY SWELL DECAY WITH NEAR CST BUOYS
RUNNING 3-4FT IN NE SWELL AND BUOY 010 AT 120NM OFFSHORE AT 7 FOOT.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WL KEEP SWELL AS PRIMARY COMPONENT AND NO
HEADLINES ARE REQUIRED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR HAS NUDGED UP TO AROUND
3.2 FEET WHICH IS ABOUT 0.3 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD WITH A SLOW FALL LATE THIS WEEK.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA COUNTY.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
JP/DKW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TODAY...
...BUILDING SEAS AND ROUGH SURF WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING
MARINE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS WITH SPOTS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COMING
ASHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY AND TRACKING TOWARD SEMINOLE...LAKE...ORANGE
AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTIES. THE 9AM OBS SHOWED LOW CLOUDS WITH
CEILINGS BETWEEN 400 AND 1000 FEET. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD MOTION WAS TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE THE LOW CLOUDINESS
MAY TAKE A WHILE TO LIFT/BURN OFF. LOCAL WRF AND HRRR RUNS SHOWING
THAT THE LOW CLOUDINESS BURNING OFF/LIFTING AROUND NOON.
MORNING UPDATE TO ADDRESS WIND GRIDS.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
THE WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING. LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH ARE COMBINING TO
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...ALSO EXPECTING A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE
ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COAST AND NEIGHBORING ATLANTIC WATERS.
WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES...MOISTURE AND THERMAL PROFILE LOOK
MEAGER WITH LINGERING DRY AIR AND A PRONOUNCED INVERSION PRESENT
ABOVE 850MB. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF CWA AS WIND
SURGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN NEAR-SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...THOUGH SHOWER COVERAGE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY SPARSE.
KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS PERSISTENT N/NE
FLOW CONTINUES TO MODIFY LOCAL AIRMASS. RETAINED POPS FOR COASTAL
SECTIONS WHERE CONVERGENCE AND N/NE FLOW THROUGH 800MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS. SHOWERS FORMING IN THIS TYPE OF
FLOW REGIME RARELY HAVE ANY IMPACT WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...SO
KEPT POPS OUT FOR THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.
A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE JOAQUIN ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS FROM THE NORTHERLY WIND SURGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.
WED...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE FROM NE FL WILL MOVE SE
AND ALLOW A SURGE OF STRONGER LOW LVL N-NE FLOW TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE ATLC THAT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS
BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES AROUND 40 PCT WITH LOWER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20-30 PCT.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S VOLUSIA COAST TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND SRN
SECTIONS.
THU...SFC LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH REMNANTS OF THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SEBASTIAN INLET OFFSHORE. HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLC WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW FOR BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WITH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES. LOW LVL ONSHORE FLOW...ADEQUATE MOISTURE
LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POPS FROM 30-40 PCT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY
INLAND.
FRI...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFFSHORE
ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS. ALOFT...WNW FLOW AT 20 KNOTS AT
H5 WILL PROMOTE STEERING FLOW TWD THE EAST COAST WITH ANY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AS SEA BREEZES MOVE INLAND IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOWER 80S VOLUSIA COAST TO MID-UPPER 80S
INTERIOR AND SRN SECTIONS.
SAT-TUE...ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE SE ATLC COAST
SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TWD THE SE STATES. LOW LVL FLOW WILL
VEER QUICKLY TO THE NE/E OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POPS IN THE 20-30
PCT RANGE FOR SAT/SUN AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY
DROPPING A FEW DEGS ON SUNDAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SE ACROSS THE ERN GULF SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CUT-OFF
CLOSED LOW NEAR THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR E CENTRAL FL WITH RAIN CHANCES CREEPING BACK
TO THE SCATTERED RANGE FROM 30-40 PCT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CEILINGS SHOULD HAVE LIFTED BY NOON PER LOCAL WRF AND HRRR RUNS.
UNTIL THEN...PREVAILING IFR KISM-KTIX NORTH WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF KTIX-KMCO.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATE LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS FOR A
PERIOD FROM KTIX/KMCO/KISM AND POINTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
BURN OFF SLOWLY THIS MORNING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS NORTHERLY AND INCREASING A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM KMLB NORTHWARD.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...SCRIPPS BUOYS RECORDING 3 TO 4 FOOT LONG
PERIOD SEAS OUT TO 6NM. THE CMAN SITES WERE RECORDING NW WINDS 5 TO
10 KNOTS. BUOY 009 AT 20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL WAS RECORDING WNW
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 6 TO 7 FOOT SEAS WITH A 5 FOOT 11 SECOND
ENE SWELL COMPONENT.
KEEPING THE HIGH RIP RISK AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET AS A
WIND SURGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET. WINDS NOT AS STRONG SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET BUT THE
NORTHERLY WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS PUSHING AGAINST THE GULF STREAM SHOULD
PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS BEYOND 20NM AND EXERCISE CAUTION
SEAS...TO 6 FEET...OUT TO 20NM.
UPDATE TO THE WINDS.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TODAY/TONIGHT...CONTINUED SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
JOAQUIN IMPACTING LOCAL COASTAL WATERS...UP TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE EVEN FURTHER THIS MORNING AS
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE PUSHES SOUTH. SEAS WILL
BUILD UP TO 7 FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 9 FEET
FURTHER OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED THIS MORNING
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD.
WED...NORTHERLY WIND TO 15 KNOTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW OFFSHORE
WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-8 FT OFFSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM MAKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. WINDS WILL VEER TO NE WED NIGHT AND E ON THU WITH WINDS TO 10-
15 KNOTS ACROSS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN WHERE HIGHER SEAS WILL LINGER.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FRIDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS BUT A 4-5
FT SWELL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS BETWEEN 3.1 AND
3.0 FT...0.2 TO 0.3 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LATEST
OBSERVATION AT ASTOR AT 8:30 AM TUE 6 OCT 2015 WAS 3.1 FEET. FLOOD
STAGE IS 2.8 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 79 71 83 70 / 30 20 20 20
MCO 84 70 86 70 / 10 10 20 10
MLB 83 72 85 73 / 20 20 40 30
VRB 84 71 84 70 / 20 20 40 30
LEE 82 68 85 68 / 10 10 20 10
SFB 82 69 85 70 / 20 10 20 10
ORL 84 69 86 71 / 10 10 20 10
FPR 83 70 86 69 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
FORECASTS/GRIDS......WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
328 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS REVEAL THE COMPACT
UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPORADIC SHOWERS OVER THE LAST TWO
DAYS...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE HISTORIC FLOODING OVER THE
CAROLINAS...CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE. THIS FEATURE IS LEAD BY
JOAQUIN...WHICH CONTINUES TO CHURN THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC...REMAINING A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE AS OF THIS WRITING. IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GULF COASTAL REGION...WITH
PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
IN THE WAKE OF A STOUT UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT BOUTS OF SHOWERS TO
THE REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST IN THE MID LEVELS. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN
PLACE...AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A STOUT INVERSION AROUND 700
MB...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE QUITE SPARSE TODAY...WITH BETTER
CHANCES GENERALLY REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA AND
OFFSHORE WATERS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY. WHEN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF
SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES...EXPECT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REENTER THE FORECAST. WITH EASTERLY FLOW THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD I-75 AND THE TAMPA/ST
PETERSBURG AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S AND LOWS RIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
AN U/L TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. AN
U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WHICH INDUCE AN AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AN U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIG THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON FRIDAY
AND WILL STALL ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE U/L FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ADVECTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH PCPW
VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
CREATE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...COMBINED WITH L/L
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH
AFTERNOON. GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN REGION OF SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS SUGGESTS AREA OF LOW CIGS IS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL...AND SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH. IT
REMAINS UNKNOWN WHETHER THESE WILL BUILD INTO THE TPA/KPIE/KLAL
AREAS...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. ASIDE FROM EXPECTATION OF BR AT KLAL AND
KPGD...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL TAKE A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE MOVES
INLAND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
HOWEVER...AS RATHER DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS. WEAK
TROUGHING WILL THEN REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET TOPS...NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...THOUGH HUMIDITIES
LOOK TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. FROM TOMORROW ON INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY
WILDFIRE CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 85 71 86 72 / 10 10 20 10
FMY 87 71 87 73 / 10 10 40 20
GIF 86 70 86 70 / 10 10 30 10
SRQ 85 71 87 72 / 10 10 20 10
BKV 84 68 86 68 / 10 10 20 0
SPG 83 73 85 76 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/AUSTIN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
840 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
A surface high pressure ridge axis extending from Lake Superior
southward through eastern Illinois will continue to produce light
winds for much of the night. Low pressure currently over North
Dakota will push eastward into the upper Midwest
overnight...strengthening pressure gradients over central Illinois
and initiating light south-southwest winds by morning. With the
lightest winds lasting longest toward eastern and southeastern
Illinois...along with the deepest moisture remaining...areas from
around I-57 eastward will have the best potential for fog by
morning. Latest HRRR run is developing some areas of low
visibility consistent with this scenario...so no updates are
needed at this time as patchy fog is currently in the forecast.
Lows expected to reach the mid to upper 50s across central
Illinois.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
Temperatures rebounding nicely this afternoon, with most areas of
the CWA in the mid-upper 70s at 2 pm. Main area of clouds the last
few hours has been a blob of stratocumulus across Missouri, spilling
a bit over the Mississippi River, although this eastern flank is
taking on more of a diurnal look with time.
Main concern for the forecast tonight remains with any fog
redevelopment. The area of concern continues to shrink, as the ridge
axis shifts east overnight and winds start to pick up ahead of the
shortwave currently advancing across the Dakotas. Currently thinking
that areas along and east of I-57 would be most prone, as the winds
there will remain very light with the ridge axis not too far away.
Lower levels of the forecast soundings suggest the fog would be
shallower than recent nights. Will only mention patchy fog late
tonight at this point. Otherwise, skies generally should be partly
cloudy.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
Main forecast concern will be timing of precip into the area along a
cold front slated to push through central Illinois tomorrow night
into Friday morning. Most of the operational models now similar in
their timing of the cold front across the forecast area Thursday
night with one more warm day ahead of the boundary as afternoon
temperatures top out mostly in the lower 80s with a gusty south to
southwest wind. We may even see a few mid 80s across west central
IL if cloud cover holds off during the day. Models suggest some
weak instability and lapse rates just ahead of the cold front late
Thursday afternoon with NAM forecast soundings a bit more
aggressive in forecasting Mixed Layer Capes of around 1000 J/KG
in a rather narrow axis stretching from southeast Iowa through
extreme west central Illinois, before the instability wanes with
the loss of daytime heating just after 00z. 0-6km shear values of
around 30 kts forecast across west central IL late tomorrow
afternoon and evening, so some storm organization may occur just
ahead of the cold front, but with most of the models indicating
the boundary still well out to our west/northwest tomorrow
afternoon, it appears that may occur over far eastern Iowa into
northwest Illinois. We may see some isolated storms produce gusty
winds and small hail, but with the weaker lapse rates depicted on
the latest models, it appears the hail threat has diminished. The
highest POPs will occur across the far northwest late tomorrow
afternoon with 50-60 POPs depicted along the frontal boundary
further south and east into central IL tomorrow evening, where the
low level convergence will be maximized.
Lingering shower chances will slide into southeast Illinois Friday
morning and gradually work off to the east and south of our forecast
area by late in the day. Much cooler weather will invade central
IL for a few days before a rapid warm up pushes in Sunday ahead
of a fast moving cold front which now looks to be pusing into our
forecast area Monday morning. With the fast movement of the
boundary and the better dynamics well to our north, not much of an
opportunity for moisture to work its way back into our area ahead
of the early week frontal passage so will continue to keep the
forecast dry ahead of this feature. Another quick shot of cool air
will push in behind the front later Monday into Tuesday, but a
fast turn-around in temps expected Tuesday night into Wednesday
ahead of another quick moving shortwave and frontal boundary
slated to push through our area dry for Wednesday afternoon and
evening.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
VFR conditions expected through much of the next 24 hours. As a
high pressure axis shifts eastward, light and variable winds will
become more south-southwest after 09Z and increase to near 10
knots Thursday morning. Currently thinking that any fog that forms
would be mainly from around KCMI south and eastward, and have kept
a TEMPO MVFR group at that site. After 18Z thursday...a cold front
will approach the area from the northwest...bringing increased
southwest winds of 10-15 kts gusting to around 20 kts...as well as
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Have included
VCTS with continued VFR conditions after 21Z for KPIA-KBMI as
timing/location uncertainties of potential MVFR conditions with
thunderstorms preclude mention at this point.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
258 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Low cloud deck has faded over most of the forecast area early this
afternoon, but some stratocumulus lingers especially in west central
Illinois. Main concern is that this will return once again tonight.
The atmosphere has not changed much, as the high pressure axis to
our west only slowly edges eastward. The RAP model, which locked
into the idea of this morning`s low clouds and fog about 24 hours in
advance, shows another expanse of stratus/fog advecting in from the
northeast after about 2 am. Wild card will be with some altocumulus
clouds currently over Wisconsin/Minnesota dropping southeast, which
could slow the redevelopment of the low clouds. Right now, will
focus more on the areas east of I-55 and north of I-70 as more
likely to see some fog late night, although some fog along the
Wabash River in southeast Illinois is a possibility as well.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Areas of fog from I-55 east and locally dense in spots to lift
during mid morning similar to past 2 mornings. Low clouds to also
break up by late morning with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny
by Wed afternoon with weak surface high pressure ridge of 1018 mb
near IL Wed and Wed night. Warm highs Wed in the upper 70s to near
80F. Lows Wed night in the mid to upper 50s. Could be some patchy
fog in southeast IL later Wed night where surface winds lighter.
Another warm day expected Thu with breezy ssw winds by midday Thu
giving highs in the lower 80s. MAV guidance even going mid 80s in
western CWA from Decatur west but did not go this warm since there
will be increasing cloud cover ahead of approaching cold front along
with chances of showers and thunderstorms NW half of CWA Thu
afternoon, with best chances over the IL river valley. SPC has
marginal risk (5%) of severe storms for hail late Thu afternoon and
early Thu evening over IL river valley. MLCapes peak near 1000 j/kg
late Thu afternoon nw IL and 0-6 km Bulk shear from 35-45 kts. 12Z
models similar in sweeping cold front se acorss central IL during
Thu night with likely chances of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Cold front exits southeast IL early Fri morning with lingering
chances of showers on Friday especially in the morning.
Dry conditions return to central and southeast IL Friday night
through next Tuesday as high pressure from the Pacific NW settles
into IL Saturday and then into the Southeast U.S. early next week.
Temps cool back to near or a bit below normal Friday/Saturday and
then warm back above normal early next week with highs in the mid
70s to lower 80s Sun-Tue. WNW upper level flow takes shape during
1st half of next week which would favor fair and mild conditions,
and favorable for fall harvest. CPC`s day 6-10 day outlook Oct 12-16
has IL in above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Ceilings quickly lifting into VFR range at midday, but will
continue to see another hour or two of IFR/MVFR at KCMI/KBMI.
Main concern will be whether these conditions return once again
tonight, as high pressure axis starts to edge across the
Mississippi River. Latest RAP guidance -- which ended up doing a
fairly decent job with this morning`s IFR conditions nearly 24
hours in advance -- shows some more low clouds/fog edging in from
the northeast after 06Z, primarily affecting KBMI/KCMI/KDEC. Areas
further west will likely see more in the way of clouds over 10,000
feet, which would lessen the probability of very low conditions
at KPIA/KSPI. However, given the inversion that has kept the air
mass somewhat stagnant, will go with MVFR visibilities everywhere
after 06Z, and include a TEMPO period of IFR conditions in east
central Illinois.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1232 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Most of the fog has lifted, but still seeing some pockets of 1/2
to 1 mile visibility persisting from Taylorville east to the
Indiana border. This will continue to improve over the next hour
or two. Still quite a bit of low level moisture trapped below 800
mb, with the 925 mb RH plot off the RAP showing cloudiness
persisting near Champaign/Danville most of the day, so high
temperatures in that area have been lowered a few degrees. The
remainder of the forecast area should see some breaks developing,
especially during the afternoon, which should help temperatures
respond quickly similar to yesterday. Thus, have only made minor
temperature changes elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Main short-term forecast challenge will once again be cloud cover
and its impact on high temperatures today. Much like last
night...low clouds are currently developing over northern Illinois.
With surface high pressure still in place from the western Great
Lakes to the Central Plains...northeasterly low-level flow will
allow the clouds to spread S/SW into the KILX CWA over the next few
hours. 08z/3am obs show IFR ceilings along/northeast of a Lacon
to Paris line...with mid/high clouds blanketing the remainder of
the area. HRRR suggests these lower clouds will spread as far
south as the I-70 corridor shortly after dawn...resulting in
overcast conditions across the board to start the day. In
addition...quite a bit of fog is developing under the low cloud
deck. While models do not indicate the fog will become
dense...visibilities will be restricted to less than 1 mile at
times...especially along/northeast of a Lacon...to Decatur...to
Paris line. Will carry areas of fog across this portion of the
CWA through 14-15z...with patchy fog elsewhere. As was the case
yesterday...the fog and lower clouds will dissipate toward
midday...however a short-wave trough tracking eastward out of the
Plains will provide plenty of high clouds throughout the
afternoon. While some partial sunshine is likely later in the
day...the increased cloud cover will result in slightly cooler
afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
As high pressure shifts overhead on Wednesday...synoptic
subsidence/drying will allow the persistent cloud cover to finally
dissipate. Due to increased sunshine...high temps will reach the
middle to upper 70s. Once the high slides further east...and a
gusty S/SW wind develops ahead of an approaching cold front...high
temperatures will climb even higher into the upper 70s and lower 80s
by Thursday. 00z Oct 6 models are now in very good agreement
concerning timing of frontal passage...with the boundary passing
through central Illinois Thursday night. With strongest forcing and
deepest moisture remaining west of the area until late in the
day...have removed PoPs Thursday morning and only featured chance
PoPs west of the I-57 corridor during the afternoon. The best
chance for rain still appears to be on target Thursday night...when
high chance to likely PoPs are warranted. Gulf moisture return
ahead of the front will be sufficient to allow surface dewpoints to
climb into the upper 50s/lower 60s. This will result in SBCAPE
values of around 1000J/Kg during the late afternoon and evening.
Thanks to an approaching upper wave...0-6km bulk shear will increase
to around 30kt as well. Due to the moderate instability/shear in
place...have decided to mention a chance for thunderstorms with
FROPA Thursday afternoon and night.
All models now show the front quickly pushing through the area and
moving into the Ohio River Valley by Friday morning. As a
result...will only hold on to a low chance PoP across the far SE
Friday morning...with dry conditions expected everywhere by
afternoon. Airmass behind boundary will be quite a bit
cooler...with high temperatures remaining in the 60s for both
Friday and Saturday.
After that...upper heights will once again be on the increase across
the Midwest early next week. As the next cold front begins to
approach from the northwest...a strong thermal axis with 850mb temps
of 18-22C will develop across the area. This will help push
afternoon high temperatures back into the lower 80s by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Ceilings quickly lifting into VFR range at midday, but will
continue to see another hour or two of IFR/MVFR at KCMI/KBMI.
Main concern will be whether these conditions return once again
tonight, as high pressure axis starts to edge across the
Mississippi River. Latest RAP guidance -- which ended up doing a
fairly decent job with this morning`s IFR conditions nearly 24
hours in advance -- shows some more low clouds/fog edging in from
the northeast after 06Z, primarily affecting KBMI/KCMI/KDEC. Areas
further west will likely see more in the way of clouds over 10,000
feet, which would lessen the probability of very low conditions
at KPIA/KSPI. However, given the inversion that has kept the air
mass somewhat stagnant, will go with MVFR visibilities everywhere
after 06Z, and include a TEMPO period of IFR conditions in east
central Illinois.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1004 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Most of the fog has lifted, but still seeing some pockets of 1/2
to 1 mile visibility persisting from Taylorville east to the
Indiana border. This will continue to improve over the next hour
or two. Still quite a bit of low level moisture trapped below 800
mb, with the 925 mb RH plot off the RAP showing cloudiness
persisting near Champaign/Danville most of the day, so high
temperatures in that area have been lowered a few degrees. The
remainder of the forecast area should see some breaks developing,
especially during the afternoon, which should help temperatures
respond quickly similar to yesterday. Thus, have only made minor
temperature changes elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Main short-term forecast challenge will once again be cloud cover
and its impact on high temperatures today. Much like last
night...low clouds are currently developing over northern Illinois.
With surface high pressure still in place from the western Great
Lakes to the Central Plains...northeasterly low-level flow will
allow the clouds to spread S/SW into the KILX CWA over the next few
hours. 08z/3am obs show IFR ceilings along/northeast of a Lacon
to Paris line...with mid/high clouds blanketing the remainder of
the area. HRRR suggests these lower clouds will spread as far
south as the I-70 corridor shortly after dawn...resulting in
overcast conditions across the board to start the day. In
addition...quite a bit of fog is developing under the low cloud
deck. While models do not indicate the fog will become
dense...visibilities will be restricted to less than 1 mile at
times...especially along/northeast of a Lacon...to Decatur...to
Paris line. Will carry areas of fog across this portion of the
CWA through 14-15z...with patchy fog elsewhere. As was the case
yesterday...the fog and lower clouds will dissipate toward
midday...however a short-wave trough tracking eastward out of the
Plains will provide plenty of high clouds throughout the
afternoon. While some partial sunshine is likely later in the
day...the increased cloud cover will result in slightly cooler
afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
As high pressure shifts overhead on Wednesday...synoptic
subsidence/drying will allow the persistent cloud cover to finally
dissipate. Due to increased sunshine...high temps will reach the
middle to upper 70s. Once the high slides further east...and a
gusty S/SW wind develops ahead of an approaching cold front...high
temperatures will climb even higher into the upper 70s and lower 80s
by Thursday. 00z Oct 6 models are now in very good agreement
concerning timing of frontal passage...with the boundary passing
through central Illinois Thursday night. With strongest forcing and
deepest moisture remaining west of the area until late in the
day...have removed PoPs Thursday morning and only featured chance
PoPs west of the I-57 corridor during the afternoon. The best
chance for rain still appears to be on target Thursday night...when
high chance to likely PoPs are warranted. Gulf moisture return
ahead of the front will be sufficient to allow surface dewpoints to
climb into the upper 50s/lower 60s. This will result in SBCAPE
values of around 1000J/Kg during the late afternoon and evening.
Thanks to an approaching upper wave...0-6km bulk shear will increase
to around 30kt as well. Due to the moderate instability/shear in
place...have decided to mention a chance for thunderstorms with
FROPA Thursday afternoon and night.
All models now show the front quickly pushing through the area and
moving into the Ohio River Valley by Friday morning. As a
result...will only hold on to a low chance PoP across the far SE
Friday morning...with dry conditions expected everywhere by
afternoon. Airmass behind boundary will be quite a bit
cooler...with high temperatures remaining in the 60s for both
Friday and Saturday.
After that...upper heights will once again be on the increase across
the Midwest early next week. As the next cold front begins to
approach from the northwest...a strong thermal axis with 850mb temps
of 18-22C will develop across the area. This will help push
afternoon high temperatures back into the lower 80s by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Widespread IFR stratus/fog across the central Illinois terminals
to start the day, very similar to yesterday. However, conditions
are expected to improve a little more quickly than yesterday in
most locations, with VFR conditions expected areawide by early
afternoon. Some low cloud/fog redevelopment is possible by late
tonight, but feel this threat should be mitigated to some degree
by a persistent mid cloud deck. Light northernly winds will trend
variable tonight as a ridge axis passes through the area.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
656 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Main short-term forecast challenge will once again be cloud cover
and its impact on high temperatures today. Much like last
night...low clouds are currently developing over northern Illinois.
With surface high pressure still in place from the western Great
Lakes to the Central Plains...northeasterly low-level flow will
allow the clouds to spread S/SW into the KILX CWA over the next few
hours. 08z/3am obs show IFR ceilings along/northeast of a Lacon
to Paris line...with mid/high clouds blanketing the remainder of
the area. HRRR suggests these lower clouds will spread as far
south as the I-70 corridor shortly after dawn...resulting in
overcast conditions across the board to start the day. In
addition...quite a bit of fog is developing under the low cloud
deck. While models do not indicate the fog will become
dense...visibilities will be restricted to less than 1 mile at
times...especially along/northeast of a Lacon...to Decatur...to
Paris line. Will carry areas of fog across this portion of the
CWA through 14-15z...with patchy fog elsewhere. As was the case
yesterday...the fog and lower clouds will dissipate toward
midday...however a short-wave trough tracking eastward out of the
Plains will provide plenty of high clouds throughout the
afternoon. While some partial sunshine is likely later in the
day...the increased cloud cover will result in slightly cooler
afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
As high pressure shifts overhead on Wednesday...synoptic
subsidence/drying will allow the persistent cloud cover to finally
dissipate. Due to increased sunshine...high temps will reach the
middle to upper 70s. Once the high slides further east...and a
gusty S/SW wind develops ahead of an approaching cold front...high
temperatures will climb even higher into the upper 70s and lower 80s
by Thursday. 00z Oct 6 models are now in very good agreement
concerning timing of frontal passage...with the boundary passing
through central Illinois Thursday night. With strongest forcing and
deepest moisture remaining west of the area until late in the
day...have removed PoPs Thursday morning and only featured chance
PoPs west of the I-57 corridor during the afternoon. The best
chance for rain still appears to be on target Thursday night...when
high chance to likely PoPs are warranted. Gulf moisture return
ahead of the front will be sufficient to allow surface dewpoints to
climb into the upper 50s/lower 60s. This will result in SBCAPE
values of around 1000J/Kg during the late afternoon and evening.
Thanks to an approaching upper wave...0-6km bulk shear will increase
to around 30kt as well. Due to the moderate instability/shear in
place...have decided to mention a chance for thunderstorms with
FROPA Thursday afternoon and night.
All models now show the front quickly pushing through the area and
moving into the Ohio River Valley by Friday morning. As a
result...will only hold on to a low chance PoP across the far SE
Friday morning...with dry conditions expected everywhere by
afternoon. Airmass behind boundary will be quite a bit
cooler...with high temperatures remaining in the 60s for both
Friday and Saturday.
After that...upper heights will once again be on the increase across
the Midwest early next week. As the next cold front begins to
approach from the northwest...a strong thermal axis with 850mb temps
of 18-22C will develop across the area. This will help push
afternoon high temperatures back into the lower 80s by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Widespread IFR stratus/fog across the central Illinois terminals
to start the day, very similar to yesterday. However, conditions
are expected to improve a little more quickly than yesterday in
most locations, with VFR conditions expected areawide by early
afternoon. Some low cloud/fog redevelopment is possible by late
tonight, but feel this threat should be mitigated to some degree
by a persistent mid cloud deck. Light northernly winds will trend
variable tonight as a ridge axis passes through the area.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
314 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Main short-term forecast challenge will once again be cloud cover
and its impact on high temperatures today. Much like last
night...low clouds are currently developing over northern Illinois.
With surface high pressure still in place from the western Great
Lakes to the Central Plains...northeasterly low-level flow will
allow the clouds to spread S/SW into the KILX CWA over the next few
hours. 08z/3am obs show IFR ceilings along/northeast of a Lacon
to Paris line...with mid/high clouds blanketing the remainder of
the area. HRRR suggests these lower clouds will spread as far
south as the I-70 corridor shortly after dawn...resulting in
overcast conditions across the board to start the day. In
addition...quite a bit of fog is developing under the low cloud
deck. While models do not indicate the fog will become
dense...visibilities will be restricted to less than 1 mile at
times...especially along/northeast of a Lacon...to Decatur...to
Paris line. Will carry areas of fog across this portion of the
CWA through 14-15z...with patchy fog elsewhere. As was the case
yesterday...the fog and lower clouds will dissipate toward
midday...however a short-wave trough tracking eastward out of the
Plains will provide plenty of high clouds throughout the
afternoon. While some partial sunshine is likely later in the
day...the increased cloud cover will result in slightly cooler
afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
As high pressure shifts overhead on Wednesday...synoptic
subsidence/drying will allow the persistent cloud cover to finally
dissipate. Due to increased sunshine...high temps will reach the
middle to upper 70s. Once the high slides further east...and a
gusty S/SW wind develops ahead of an approaching cold front...high
temperatures will climb even higher into the upper 70s and lower 80s
by Thursday. 00z Oct 6 models are now in very good agreement
concerning timing of frontal passage...with the boundary passing
through central Illinois Thursday night. With strongest forcing and
deepest moisture remaining west of the area until late in the
day...have removed PoPs Thursday morning and only featured chance
PoPs west of the I-57 corridor during the afternoon. The best
chance for rain still appears to be on target Thursday night...when
high chance to likely PoPs are warranted. Gulf moisture return
ahead of the front will be sufficient to allow surface dewpoints to
climb into the upper 50s/lower 60s. This will result in SBCAPE
values of around 1000J/Kg during the late afternoon and evening.
Thanks to an approaching upper wave...0-6km bulk shear will increase
to around 30kt as well. Due to the moderate instability/shear in
place...have decided to mention a chance for thunderstorms with
FROPA Thursday afternoon and night.
All models now show the front quickly pushing through the area and
moving into the Ohio River Valley by Friday morning. As a
result...will only hold on to a low chance PoP across the far SE
Friday morning...with dry conditions expected everywhere by
afternoon. Airmass behind boundary will be quite a bit
cooler...with high temperatures remaining in the 60s for both
Friday and Saturday.
After that...upper heights will once again be on the increase across
the Midwest early next week. As the next cold front begins to
approach from the northwest...a strong thermal axis with 850mb temps
of 18-22C will develop across the area. This will help push
afternoon high temperatures back into the lower 80s by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
High pressure ridge remains to our northwest tonight allowing
moist northeast flow to persist. IFR Cigs are not too far away
from KBMI and KCMI with both KPNT and KTIP below 1000 ft and will
likely slowly advect into those terminals by 06z. Some reductions
in vsby are occurring mainly just to the southwest of the low
deck.
00z models and 21z SREF differ in how far southwest the low deck
will get with the RAP more aggressive and the HRRR keeping low
clouds only in eastern terminals. Will have to be monitored
closely, but for now will stick with middle ground and bring in
MVFR CIG for at least a time around sunrise at KDEC and only a
scattered deck at KSPI.
Latest model runs are a bit quicker in dissipating low clouds
Tuesday morning but with little dry air to advect in and mid-level
clouds above the lower deck think trend will still be on the
slower side.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1145 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Have made some minor adjustments to cloudiness, otherwise current
package looks on-track.
Low clouds have made it as far southwest as KPNT at 01z and
should continue to overspread area under influence of northeast
flow. Fog development still looks like a good bet, particularly
along I-74 from east of Peoria through Danville.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Stratus deck held firm a good part of the morning, but started to
rapidly erode toward midday and most of it is now gone from the
forecast area as of 2 pm. Still getting some cirrus streaming up
from the southwest, but most areas at least are now partly sunny.
This has helped temperatures recover nicely and much of the CWA has
reached into the 70s. A few 80 degree readings have been observed in
the far southeast, where skies have been mostly sunny the entire
time.
High pressure ridge from Wisconsin to Oklahoma will move little
overnight, keeping our northeast flow continuing. 925 mb RAP
humidity plot showing some southern building of the lower clouds
once again overnight, and have indicated mostly cloudy conditions
spreading over most of the forecast area overnight. It has also been
persistent over the last few hours on a widespread dense fog
scenario expanding southwest to cover the southeast half of the
forecast area. The 4km NAM-nest shows this a bit further northwest,
mainly from about I-55 eastward, and the tail end of the HRRR is
more patchy in nature, but in that same general region. At the
moment, will only mention patchy fog in the forecast and continue to
watch how the stratus evolves this evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
High pressure ridge will dominate the weather across central IL
through mid week. Though there could be some cloud cover, partly to
mostly sunny skies should be the rule, with temps warming to above
normal, mid to upper 70s...into the lower 80s, for Wed and Thur.
Then models are in very good agreement with timing and intensity of
a cold front moving through the area Thursday night. Pcpn will begin
just ahead of the front Thursday morning northwest of the IL river
and then spread eastward through the afternoon and into the evening
for the southeast. The front should move through the area quickly
Thursday night with pcpn likely over the northeastern portion of the
CWA during the night. The pcpn should be exiting the area from late
Thursday night through early Friday morning. Lingering pcpn will in
southeastern IL Friday morning, with all pcpn gone before the
afternoon. This front will bring cooler temps in for Friday and
Saturday, but with another high pressure ridge moving into the area,
temps will again warm to above normal levels for Sun and Mon. Dry
weather is also expected Friday afternoon through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
High pressure ridge remains to our northwest tonight allowing
moist northeast flow to persist. IFR Cigs are not too far away
from KBMI and KCMI with both KPNT and KTIP below 1000 ft and will
likely slowly advect into those terminals by 06z. Some reductions
in vsby are occurring mainly just to the southwest of the low
deck.
00z models and 21z SREF differ in how far southwest the low deck
will get with the RAP more aggressive and the HRRR keeping low
clouds only in eastern terminals. Will have to be monitored
closely, but for now will stick with middle ground and bring in
MVFR CIG for at least a time around sunrise at KDEC and only a
scattered deck at KSPI.
Latest model runs are a bit quicker in dissipating low clouds
Tuesday morning but with little dry air to advect in and mid-level
clouds above the lower deck think trend will still be on the
slower side.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
743 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO START THE EVENING BUT SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMFORTABLE AND SLOWLY
DROP THROUGH THE 60S THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE THURSDAY MORNING. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 70S. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA BY
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINS CONCERN ONCE AGAIN IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TONIGHT THOUGH AS CENTER OF GREAT
LAKES HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. IN ADDITION...AFTERNOON SUN ADDED
SOME ADDITIONAL DRYING THAT WE HAVE NOT HAD PAST COUPLE DAYS. WITH
THAT SAID...AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND
THESE WILL BE CROSSED OVER TONIGHT ADDING TO POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH SLIDING EAST WE WILL SEE WINDS IN
THE 1000-925MB LAYER INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY VERSUS LAST COUPLE
NIGHTS WHICH WERE NEARLY CALM. AT THE SFC...WINDS LOOK TO BECOME
LIGHT OR CALM BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BUT INCREASE TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6
KNOTS TOWARD 12Z AS GRADIENT SLOWLY INCREASES. MET MOS GUIDANCE
TAKES A NOSE DIVE ONCE AGAIN BUT NO REAL SUPPORT FROM MAV OR LAMP
WHICH ONLY DROP TO 3-5 MILE RANGE. WITH THIS ALL IN MIND OPTED FOR
PATCHY FOG WORDING OVER EASTERN TWO THIRDS WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SHOW GREATEST POTENTIAL. WILL ALSO BE SEEING A MID OR
HIGH CLOUD DECK DEVELOP IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WHICH SHOULD
ALSO KEEP FOG FROM GETTING WIDESPREAD AND DENSE.
THURSDAY WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS
NORTHWEST IN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. KEPT A TOKEN LOW
CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS FRONT NEARS BUT BETTER CHANCES
LOOK TO BE AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGHS SHOULD REACH MIDDLE
TO EVEN UPPER 70S AND SOUTHWEST MAY FLIRT WITH 80 IF NO FOG AND
CLEAN START TO DAY WITH THIN CLOUDS LATE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
AN AMPLIFYING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
STILL ON TRACK TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES
APPEARING MORE DISJOINTED WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TRACK THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL LAKES AND TRAILING/SHEARED VORTICITY SE THROUGH THE
MID MS/OH VALLEYS. THIS SPLIT/WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS SOLUTION IS
LEADING TO A MORE TEPID MOISTURE RESPONSE WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL
LLJ...WHICH BRINGS INTO QUESTIONS COVERAGE AND GOING LIKELY POPS.
WITH THAT SAID OPTED FOR PERSISTENCE (MID CHC TO LIKELY POP) THIS
PACKAGE GIVEN PROGGED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE QUALITY AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE.
BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE POST-FRONTAL FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH FRIDAY THE MORE RAW/FALL-LIKE DAY GIVEN NORTHERLY
WINDS/CAA, LINGERING CLOUDS, AND SPOTTY AM DRIZZLE. MODERATION IS
THEN EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY IN PROGRESSIVE WNW FLOW
REGIME BEFORE THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FORCES ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THROUGH AROUND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. PCPN CHANCES WITH THIS
FEATURE LOOK TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT THIS POINT GIVEN LACKING
MOISTURE RETURN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE WRN GRTLKS WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT
RESULTING IN LIGHT N-NW WINDS VEERING TO SELY. RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW VSBYS TO FALL TO MVFR RANGE AT FWA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
WITH EARLIER RIDGE PASSAGE AT SBN... STRONGER RETURN FLOW WINDS
LATE TONIGHT... LEFT TAF VFR... THOUGH STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE NIGHT BEFORE WINDS PICK UP A BIT IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS DVLPG NE FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT MAY
ALLOW A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVER NE INDIANA/NW
OH... BUT STAYING JUST N-NE OF FWA... BEARS WATCHING. LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE DAKS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE UPR GRTLKS THU.
ASSOCIATED WK WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NRN INDIANA THU
MORNING LIKELY CAUSING SOME VFR CIGS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES... WITH JUST SCT CU AND MODEST SWLY FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE LOW ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE AFTN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
102 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY RAISE SKY COVER REST OF THIS AM BASED ON
SATELLITE AND OB TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OR DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. AS
RESULT... LEFT MAX TEMPS ALONE FOR NOW. ALSO... MAY BE A FEW
SPRINKLES WITH WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR WEST AND NORTHWEST OF DES
MOINES METRO... BUT TOO ISOLATED FOR MENTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. VERY
LITTLE FLOW IN THIS AIR MASS AND MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECK LOOKS TO BE
VERY PERSISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RH BETWEEN 800-600MB
REMAINS GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT UNTIL AROUND 18-20Z THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOUD DECK BEGINS TO THIN OUT A LITTLE OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE WEST. VERY WEAK
AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE LATE THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE CLOUD DECK. WENT AT OR A SLIGHT
NUDGE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE (ECS/MET/MAV) AS THEY WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT PRECIP
CHANCES TODAY...BUT TO NOTE THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE WEST. ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES TODAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN MENTIONING WITH THE HIGH BASED CLOUD DECK.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE OCT
6 2015
FEW CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED. TIMING OF FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT RAIN
CHANCES THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD. THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO LEAD
THE PACK WITH A FASTER FRONTAL TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA COMPARED
TO THE EURO. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER LINGERING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE LACK OF
CONCERTED FORCING SHOULD RANGE IN THE TENTHS TO HALF INCH RANGE AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THOUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE NORTH. NORTH NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ADD TO THE COOLER FALL READINGS FOR THE DAY. GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK H500 HEIGHT RISES AND A
TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY COOL FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE
MIDWEST/PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
ON MONDAY. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY WITH
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IOWA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN MORE PATCHY MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
KOTM STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING THESE LOWER CONDITIONS AND
WHILE MID CLOUDS PRESENT SOME CHALLENGE GIVEN LITTLE AIRMASS
CHANGE I FORECASTED SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT KOTM TO WHAT OCCURRED
THIS AM. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
BOUTS OF CLOUDINESS WITH BASES MAINLY 5-10KFT AGL. ALONG/N OF
I-80 ANTICIPATE LIGHT S/SW WINDS TO VEER TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT... WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED
SOUTH.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...MCCLURE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
621 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.
VERY LITTLE FLOW IN THIS AIR MASS AND MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECK LOOKS
TO BE VERY PERSISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RH BETWEEN 800-
600MB REMAINS GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT UNTIL AROUND 18-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUD DECK BEGINS TO THIN OUT A LITTLE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE
WEST. VERY WEAK AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE LATE THIS
MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE CLOUD DECK. WENT
AT OR A SLIGHT NUDGE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE (ECS/MET/MAV) AS THEY WERE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES TODAY...BUT TO NOTE THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WEST. ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
TODAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN MENTIONING WITH THE HIGH BASED CLOUD
DECK.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FEW CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED. TIMING OF FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT RAIN
CHANCES THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD. THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO LEAD
THE PACK WITH A FASTER FRONTAL TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA COMPARED
TO THE EURO. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER LINGERING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE LACK OF
CONCERTED FORCING SHOULD RANGE IN THE TENTHS TO HALF INCH RANGE AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THOUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE NORTH. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ADD TO THE COOLER FALL READINGS FOR THE DAY. GRADUALLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK H500 HEIGHT RISES AND A TRANSITION
TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
A DRY COOL FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE MIDWEST/PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING
WITH A RETURN TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...06/12Z
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
LIFR TO MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OTM AND ALO
THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT STILL MAY SEE SOME ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS TO MITIGATE
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MENTIONING ATTM.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
253 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.
VERY LITTLE FLOW IN THIS AIR MASS AND MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECK LOOKS
TO BE VERY PERSISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RH BETWEEN 800-
600MB REMAINS GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT UNTIL AROUND 18-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUD DECK BEGINS TO THIN OUT A LITTLE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE
WEST. VERY WEAK AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE LATE THIS
MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE CLOUD DECK. WENT
AT OR A SLIGHT NUDGE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE (ECS/MET/MAV) AS THEY WERE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES TODAY...BUT TO NOTE THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WEST. ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
TODAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN MENTIONING WITH THE HIGH BASED CLOUD
DECK.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FEW CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED. TIMING OF FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT RAIN
CHANCES THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD. THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO LEAD
THE PACK WITH A FASTER FRONTAL TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA COMPARED
TO THE EURO. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER LINGERING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE LACK OF
CONCERTED FORCING SHOULD RANGE IN THE TENTHS TO HALF INCH RANGE AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THOUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE NORTH. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ADD TO THE COOLER FALL READINGS FOR THE DAY. GRADUALLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK H500 HEIGHT RISES AND A TRANSITION
TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
A DRY COOL FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE MIDWEST/PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING
WITH A RETURN TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...06/06Z
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH 12Z WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOWER
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH WEAK WAVE PROGRESSING NE...WILL
KEEP LOWER CIGS AT KOTM WITH SOME BR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTH BY 12Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY 14Z WITH LITTLE WIND REMAINDER
OF PERIOD...THOUGH WINDS SHIFT NNW AFT 00Z MOST AREAS EXCEPT KOTM.
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN BALANCE THROUGH 00Z MOST AREAS./REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
556 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW ACROSS SW US...WITH MEAN TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL WEAK CONVERGENT AREAS
LONG SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THIS AFTERNOON...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN
CLEARING AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO CU
FIELD/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. SB
CAPE VALUES 500-1000 J/KG ACCORDING TO RAP ANALYSIS SHOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE UPDRAFTS. WEAK SHEER AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL DESPITE
COOLER TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT. DUE TO THE MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST BL FLOW HELPING DRY OUT BOUNDARY
LAYER. I STILL COULDNT RULE OUT VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN REGIONS OF
PEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING/LIGHT WINDS...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. I DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING MENTION IN ZONES AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS DRIER BL CONDITIONS PERSISTING. STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARDS OUR CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA BY 00Z. INCREASING LIFT
AND INSTABILITY ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHERN
CWA. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS FROM THE WEST. THE PATH OF THE TROUGH HAS CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER THE LATEST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE
DECREASED THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...LEADING TO A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
DEVELOPING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR TWO ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL DURING THE NIGHT...OR ONE LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL. THE
FIRST ROUND WILL DEVELOP AS THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE LIFT
TO DEVELOP IN THE 800-700MB LAYER AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
DECLINE IN THAT LAYER.
BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND THE MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP.
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW STRONG LIFT CENTERED IN THE 500-400MB
LAYER...BUT ALSO EXTENDING OUTSIDE OF THIS LAYER FOR SOME PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SATURATED OR CLOSE TO
SATURATION AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR ZERO WITHIN THE
STRONG LIFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
RAINFALL SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE BAND OF LIFT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA DUE TO THE LIFT INCREASING. THE BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING WHEN
THE LIFT IS AT ITS PEAK.
BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF LIFT THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN PRIMARILY THE 400-500MB LAYER. THERE IS STILL SOME
WEAK LIFT OVERLAPPING THE FN VECTOR DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS...SO COULD FORESEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAINFALL
BEHIND THE MAIN BAND.
MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RAINFALL WILL EXIT THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT...HOWEVER THE AREA WILL BE DRY WELL BEFORE SUNRISE.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR SUNRISE WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 40S FOR THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE AREA.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SO DRY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE
COOLEST. SOME PARTS OF THE AREA WILL NEAR 90 DEGREES SUNDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TUESDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY WARM UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD. SOUTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT TURN NORTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE AND NORTHEAST BY 17Z ON
THURSDAY AFTER A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION AND IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1125 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
UPDATE ISSUED TO CANCEL REMAINING AREAS IN DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LIFTED TO ABOVE CRITERIA LEVELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING AND LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY HAVE
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOWS.
AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET DID THE BEST ALTHOUGH ALL
WERE CLOSE. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF. THE RAP AND NAM WERE DOING THE
BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND
ECMWF WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE THE STRATUS AND FOG.
EVENING HAS ALREADY PUT OUT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AS WAS THE
CASE LAST NIGHT...AFTER AGREEMENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT SHOWING UP ON HOW FAR EAST TO TAKE THE FOG AND
HOW EXTENSIVE IT WILL BE. WILL KEEP THE GOING FORECAST AND
ADVISORY GOING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE SHIFT. THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW CLEARING TREND AND THE WIND
FIELD WILL KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR
THE MAXES.
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOT OF DRY AIR UPSTREAM.
ALSO HEIGHTS KEEP BUILDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
STILL KEEP THE MAIN UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS GET THROWN UP AT US. SINCE
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE USED THE SLOWEST MODELS TO BASE
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON WHICH TENDED TO BE THE GFS AND ECMWF.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...MODELS DELAY THE MAIN LIFT UNTIL THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT AFFECTS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA
AROUND 06Z. THEY THEN EITHER KEEP IT OVER THE AREA...MOVE IT A
LITTLE SOUTHEAST OR MOVE IT BACK TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEP THE
DAYTIME DRY AND SLOWLY INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SEEMS TO BE SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE LIFT
AND WHERE THEY PUT THE QPF. COMBINATION OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND JET LIFT COMBINE WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF AND NOT FURTHER SOUTH PER THE QPF.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WHERE THE JET LIFT. MODELS MOVE MOST OF THE
JET LIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT BUT STILL A LOT
OF DISAGREEMENT. PER THE TRANSITION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET
LIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING BY LATE EVENING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS GENERAL IDEA IN MIND AND ONLY MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING PERIOD PER REASONING ABOVE.
THERE SHOULD BE CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIPITATION WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. MODELS WARM UP TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT BUT CLOUD COVER NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT IN
HOW THEY HANDLE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY THE REGION BECOMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW AND WOULD INDICATE A FAVORABLE
RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT THE DEGREE OF FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAINFALL SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE. NO
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT SO JUST HAVE A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS.
ABOVE SYSTEM PUSHES A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT IS THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. MODELS SEEM A BIT
WARM CONSIDERING THE TIMING SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE OR KEPT IT CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE US WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO MEXICO. FRIDAY IS
STILL LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO A
COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE CWA THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND THE BEGINNING PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS KEEP PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CWA. MONDAY IS LOOKING TO HAVE A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FOR BOTH TAF SITES...VFR SKIES WITH SCT-BKN020-090. INCREASING
CLOUDS AFT 06Z WEDNESDAY. VCSH POSSIBLE BY 14Z WEDNESDAY. 6SM BR
FOR KGLD BY 07Z WED. WINDS VARIABLE BECOMING ESE 10KTS...VEERING
TO THE SW BY 14Z TOMORROW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1003 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
UPDATE TO FORECAST ISSUED TO REMOVE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
FROM CURRENT FOG ADVISORY. LATEST OBS/SATELLITE SHOW EASTERN MOST
COUNTIES HAVE SHOWN INCREASED VISIBILITY CONDITIONS SO HAVE
DROPPED FROM ADVISORY. FROM NWS GOODLAND WEST...ADVISORY EXTENDED
THRU MIDDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING AND LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY HAVE
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOWS.
AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET DID THE BEST ALTHOUGH ALL
WERE CLOSE. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF. THE RAP AND NAM WERE DOING THE
BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND
ECMWF WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE THE STRATUS AND FOG.
EVENING HAS ALREADY PUT OUT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AS WAS THE
CASE LAST NIGHT...AFTER AGREEMENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT SHOWING UP ON HOW FAR EAST TO TAKE THE FOG AND
HOW EXTENSIVE IT WILL BE. WILL KEEP THE GOING FORECAST AND
ADVISORY GOING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE SHIFT. THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW CLEARING TREND AND THE WIND
FIELD WILL KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR
THE MAXES.
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOT OF DRY AIR UPSTREAM.
ALSO HEIGHTS KEEP BUILDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
STILL KEEP THE MAIN UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS GET THROWN UP AT US. SINCE
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE USED THE SLOWEST MODELS TO BASE
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON WHICH TENDED TO BE THE GFS AND ECMWF.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...MODELS DELAY THE MAIN LIFT UNTIL THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT AFFECTS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA
AROUND 06Z. THEY THEN EITHER KEEP IT OVER THE AREA...MOVE IT A
LITTLE SOUTHEAST OR MOVE IT BACK TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEP THE
DAYTIME DRY AND SLOWLY INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SEEMS TO BE SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE LIFT
AND WHERE THEY PUT THE QPF. COMBINATION OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND JET LIFT COMBINE WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF AND NOT FURTHER SOUTH PER THE QPF.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WHERE THE JET LIFT. MODELS MOVE MOST OF THE
JET LIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT BUT STILL A LOT
OF DISAGREEMENT. PER THE TRANSITION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET
LIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING BY LATE EVENING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS GENERAL IDEA IN MIND AND ONLY MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING PERIOD PER REASONING ABOVE.
THERE SHOULD BE CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIPITATION WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. MODELS WARM UP TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT BUT CLOUD COVER NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT IN
HOW THEY HANDLE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY THE REGION BECOMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW AND WOULD INDICATE A FAVORABLE
RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT THE DEGREE OF FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAINFALL SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE. NO
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT SO JUST HAVE A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS.
ABOVE SYSTEM PUSHES A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT IS THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. MODELS SEEM A BIT
WARM CONSIDERING THE TIMING SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE OR KEPT IT CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE US WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO MEXICO. FRIDAY IS
STILL LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO A
COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE CWA THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND THE BEGINNING PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS KEEP PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CWA. MONDAY IS LOOKING TO HAVE A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FOR KGLD...VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 16Z WHEN
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO IFR. AROUND 18Z CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR WILL OCCUR WITH VFR OCCURRING AROUND 20Z. AFTER THAT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 06Z
SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR. SINCE COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY AND NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE LAST 6 HOURS...CHOSE TO NOT
MENTION ANYTHING IN THE TAF.
FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AS WITH KGLD...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z BUT NO
MENTION WILL BE MADE PER THE REASONING ABOVE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY FOR KSZ001-
013-027-041.
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
537 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING AND LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY HAVE
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOWS.
AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET DID THE BEST ALTHOUGH ALL
WERE CLOSE. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF. THE RAP AND NAM WERE DOING THE
BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND
ECMWF WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE THE STRATUS AND FOG.
EVENING HAS ALREADY PUT OUT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AS WAS THE
CASE LAST NIGHT...AFTER AGREEMENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT SHOWING UP ON HOW FAR EAST TO TAKE THE FOG AND
HOW EXTENSIVE IT WILL BE. WILL KEEP THE GOING FORECAST AND
ADVISORY GOING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE SHIFT. THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW CLEARING TREND AND THE WIND
FIELD WILL KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR
THE MAXES.
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOT OF DRY AIR UPSTREAM.
ALSO HEIGHTS KEEP BUILDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
STILL KEEP THE MAIN UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS GET THROWN UP AT US. SINCE
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE USED THE SLOWEST MODELS TO BASE
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON WHICH TENDED TO BE THE GFS AND ECMWF.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...MODELS DELAY THE MAIN LIFT UNTIL THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT AFFECTS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA
AROUND 06Z. THEY THEN EITHER KEEP IT OVER THE AREA...MOVE IT A
LITTLE SOUTHEAST OR MOVE IT BACK TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEP THE
DAYTIME DRY AND SLOWLY INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SEEMS TO BE SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE LIFT
AND WHERE THEY PUT THE QPF. COMBINATION OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND JET LIFT COMBINE WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF AND NOT FURTHER SOUTH PER THE QPF.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WHERE THE JET LIFT. MODELS MOVE MOST OF THE
JET LIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT BUT STILL A LOT
OF DISAGREEMENT. PER THE TRANSITION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET
LIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING BY LATE EVENING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS GENERAL IDEA IN MIND AND ONLY MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING PERIOD PER REASONING ABOVE.
THERE SHOULD BE CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIPITATION WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. MODELS WARM UP TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT BUT CLOUD COVER NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT IN
HOW THEY HANDLE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY THE REGION BECOMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW AND WOULD INDICATE A FAVORABLE
RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT THE DEGREE OF FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAINFALL SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE. NO
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT SO JUST HAVE A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS.
ABOVE SYSTEM PUSHES A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT IS THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. MODELS SEEM A BIT
WARM CONSIDERING THE TIMING SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE OR KEPT IT CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE US WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO MEXICO. FRIDAY IS
STILL LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO A
COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE CWA THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND THE BEGINNING PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS KEEP PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CWA. MONDAY IS LOOKING TO HAVE A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FOR KGLD...VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 16Z WHEN
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO IFR. AROUND 18Z CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR WILL OCCUR WITH VFR OCCURRING AROUND 20Z. AFTER THAT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 06Z
SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR. SINCE COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY AND NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE LAST 6 HOURS...CHOSE TO NOT
MENTION ANYTHING IN THE TAF.
FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AS WITH KGLD...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z BUT NO
MENTION WILL BE MADE PER THE REASONING ABOVE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079-080.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
335 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING AND LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY HAVE
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOWS.
AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET DID THE BEST ALTHOUGH ALL
WERE CLOSE. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF. THE RAP AND NAM WERE DOING THE
BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND
ECMWF WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE THE STRATUS AND FOG.
EVENING HAS ALREADY PUT OUT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AS WAS THE
CASE LAST NIGHT...AFTER AGREEMENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT SHOWING UP ON HOW FAR EAST TO TAKE THE FOG AND
HOW EXTENSIVE IT WILL BE. WILL KEEP THE GOING FORECAST AND
ADVISORY GOING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE SHIFT. THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW CLEARING TREND AND THE WIND
FIELD WILL KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR
THE MAXES.
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOT OF DRY AIR UPSTREAM.
ALSO HEIGHTS KEEP BUILDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
STILL KEEP THE MAIN UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS GET THROWN UP AT US. SINCE
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE USED THE SLOWEST MODELS TO BASE
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON WHICH TENDED TO BE THE GFS AND ECMWF.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...MODELS DELAY THE MAIN LIFT UNTIL THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT AFFECTS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA
AROUND 06Z. THEY THEN EITHER KEEP IT OVER THE AREA...MOVE IT A
LITTLE SOUTHEAST OR MOVE IT BACK TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEP THE
DAYTIME DRY AND SLOWLY INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SEEMS TO BE SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE LIFT
AND WHERE THEY PUT THE QPF. COMBINATION OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND JET LIFT COMBINE WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF AND NOT FURTHER SOUTH PER THE QPF.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WHERE THE JET LIFT. MODELS MOVE MOST OF THE
JET LIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT BUT STILL A LOT
OF DISAGREEMENT. PER THE TRANSITION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET
LIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING BY LATE EVENING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS GENERAL IDEA IN MIND AND ONLY MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING PERIOD PER REASONING ABOVE.
THERE SHOULD BE CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIPITATION WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. MODELS WARM UP TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT BUT CLOUD COVER NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT IN
HOW THEY HANDLE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY THE REGION BECOMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW AND WOULD INDICATE A FAVORABLE
RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT THE DEGREE OF FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAINFALL SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE. NO
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT SO JUST HAVE A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS.
ABOVE SYSTEM PUSHES A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT IS THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. MODELS SEEM A BIT
WARM CONSIDERING THE TIMING SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE OR KEPT IT CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE US WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO MEXICO. FRIDAY IS
STILL LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO A
COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE CWA THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND THE BEGINNING PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS KEEP PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CWA. MONDAY IS LOOKING TO HAVE A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2015
WIDESPREAD FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOG IS DEVELOPING ALREADY
ACROSS EAST COLORADO AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEASTWARD IS
HIGHLY ANTICIPATED. FOG APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL SURGE FURTHER
EAST THAN FORECAST EARLIER THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...HIGHLY
CONFIDENT IN FOG ARRIVE AT KGLD WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 SM.
AT KMCK...MAINTAINED A MVFR VISIBILITY BUT AM CONCERNED THAT DENSE
FOG MAY APPROACH THERE AS WELL. DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
LOWER KMCK VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING. AT THAT TIME...LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME DOMINANT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079-080.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
754 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
LOCATED OVER THE SE CORNER OF SASKATCHEWAN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA FROM SE SASK THROUGH SRN MANITOBA INTO CNTRL AND NE ND. AT
THE SFC...SRLY WINDS HAD INCREASED OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO WRN MN
BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR AND A TROUGH AND
WARM FRONT FROM SRN SASK INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. VIS LOOP SHOWED
DIMINISHING SC AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE ERN CWA AS HIGH PRES
AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
SASK SHRTWV WERE ALREADY STREAMING THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN
UPPER MI.
THE MODELS REMAINED IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING/POSITION OF THE SHRTWV AND SFC LOW MOVING INTO UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WEST AFTER 06Z...CNTRL
AFT 10Z AND EAST BY 14Z. MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 200 J/KG AND
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES ALSO SUPPORT TSRA POTENTIAL OVER THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND PWAT TO AROUND
1.0 INCH...QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.4 TO 0.7 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH. WITH LINGERING DEEP
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHER POPS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY FOR
UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM W
TO E BTWN 15Z-21Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF THE CWA THU NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO
NW FLOW ALOFT UNTIL A RIDGE MOVES OVER SUN AHEAD OF A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN NW FLOW THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THU NIGHT...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL RESULT
IN UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT REGIONS INTO FRI MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND 0C. A SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CUTTING OFF PRECIP BY LATE MORNING AND LAKE CLOUDS FROM W
TO E BY LATE FRI. WILL LINGER CLOUD COVER LONGER SINCE MODELS TEND
TO CLEAR SKIES TOO FAST IN THIS SCENARIO.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AHEAD AND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
THAT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPS SAT AND SUN. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM 0C AT 18Z FRI TO 20C BY
00Z MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS SUN. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF SW WINDS ON
SUN...FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A GREATER CONCERN GIVEN TEMPS 15F TO MAYBE
20F ABOVE NORMAL AND HOW LITTLE RAIN MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN OVER THE
LAST MONTH.
ALL MODEL HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER AND FARTHER S WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT AND MON.
MOST MODELS NOW HAVE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...SO WILL BE
INCREASING POPS. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH IN THE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT MODELS ONLY HAVE
SOME SCATTERED AND LIGHT QPF NEAR THE AREA. WILL LET MODEL CONSENSUS
POPULATE THE FORECAST FOR TUE AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE EVENING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW PRES THAT WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON THU. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THU. VFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE
FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER PCPN BEGINS...BUT EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO
FALL THRU MVFR AND INTO THE IFR RANGE THU. UPSLOPE WINDS SHOULD DROP
CIGS TO LIFR AT KIWD/KSAW...ESPECIALLY AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH NRN ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ERN ND AND FAR W MN THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE ACROSS W UPPER MI THURSDAY MORNING WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TO
NEARING 30KTS OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BEFORE EXITING
ACROSS N LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THURSDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE LOW
NRLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FRI AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SAT AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES OFF TO THESE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER CNTRL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
702 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW NRN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FROM WRN CANADA THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MAIN NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH NEAR JAMES BAY...ONLY VERY WEAK
UPSTREAM SHRTWVS WERE NOTED FROM SRN SASK INTO NW ONTARIO. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO NRN UPPER MI. OBS AND VIS LOOP
SHOWED SOME MID CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI. A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOWER
CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN INTO NW ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB
TEMPS NEAR 0C WAS GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE ESE.
TONIGHT...ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING
OVER THE ERN CWA SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY EVENING...EXPECT A CLEARING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AND 900 MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 1C...UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING CLOUDS N CNTRL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEST WITH DECOUPLED WINDS...TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FROST.
WED...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASING ACYC
FLOW...ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS OR LIGHT PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SUNSHINE/MIXING WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN IN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND
MAYBE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE WAVE LEADING TO THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS
THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF
THE LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG 925-700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THAT PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE INTO THE U.P. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED THE HEAVIEST RAIN A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY.
EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND...STILL THINK MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.5-0.75IN OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
THE LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY EVENING
AND BRING AN END TO THE LARGER SCALE PRECIPITATION. BUT WRAP AROUND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DRIER
AIR ARRIVES WITH AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP SINCE YESTERDAY...SO
WITH THOSE CLOUDS EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO
OCCUR DUE TO 825MB TEMPS AROUND -1C. THEREFORE...WILL LINGER SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED
NORTHERLY WIND AREAS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE...FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN DEPART ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AND CONTINUING INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LOW TRACK STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...EXPECT LITTLE/NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCMX AND KIWD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS INTO SAW AS WINDS VEER TO
NRLY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COMING IN
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS VEERING FROM WSW TO NNW. WINDS TO 25 KNOTS
NEAR THE KEWEENAW THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
OVER CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
A LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH THE SE WINDS PEAKING AROUND
30KTS THU. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI
EVENING BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN FROM THE SW LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NWS MARQUETTE MI
408 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW NRN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FROM WRN CANADA THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MAIN NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH NEAR JAMES BAY...ONLY VERY WEAK
UPSTREAM SHRTWVS WERE NOTED FROM SRN SASK INTO NW ONTARIO. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO NRN UPPER MI. OBS AND VIS LOOP
SHOWED SOME MID CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI. A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOWER
CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN INTO NW ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB
TEMPS NEAR 0C WAS GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE ESE.
TONIGHT...ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING
OVER THE ERN CWA SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY EVENING...EXPECT A CLEARING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AND 900 MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 1C...UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING CLOUDS N CNTRL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEST WITH DECOUPLED WINDS...TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FROST.
WED...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASING ACYC
FLOW...ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS OR LIGHT PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SUNSHINE/MIXING WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN IN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND
MAYBE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE WAVE LEADING TO THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS
THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF
THE LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG 925-700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THAT PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE INTO THE U.P. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED THE HEAVIEST RAIN A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY.
EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND...STILL THINK MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.5-0.75IN OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
THE LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY EVENING
AND BRING AN END TO THE LARGER SCALE PRECIPITATION. BUT WRAP AROUND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DRIER
AIR ARRIVES WITH AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP SINCE YESTERDAY...SO
WITH THOSE CLOUDS EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO
OCCUR DUE TO 825MB TEMPS AROUND -1C. THEREFORE...WILL LINGER SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED
NORTHERLY WIND AREAS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE...FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN DEPART ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AND CONTINUING INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LOW TRACK STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...EXPECT LITTLE/NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR
CIGS WITH MID CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS INTO SAW
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS WINDS VEER TO NRLY WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS VEERING FROM WSW TO NNW. WINDS TO 25 KNOTS
NEAR THE KEWEENAW THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
OVER CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
A LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH THE SE WINDS PEAKING AROUND
30KTS THU. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI
EVENING BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN FROM THE SW LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
201 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NE THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO
TOWARD JAMES BAY. AT THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTH INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK
RIDGE WAS NOTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IR SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATED LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI...BUT
WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE COUNTY.
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PASS ACROSS THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE ONLY WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AS BEST
DYNAMICS/LIFT REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE UPPER LAKES ALONG PATH OF
SHORTWAVE AS NOTED BY 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV FIELDS.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAK 850-800 MB FGEN FORCING AND WEAK
INSTABILITY (CAPES LESS THAN 100 J/KG) ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE ERN
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. EVEN WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE...MIXING
THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS 6-7C SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL
KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER THERE (LOWER 60S).
TONIGHT...AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
EVENING...EXPECT A CLEARING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY
QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR IN NW FLOW AS 8H TEMPS DROP NEAR 0C OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z WED. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LOW CLOUDS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE EAST SO WL CONTINUE TO KEEP A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER THERE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
30S INTERIOR WEST WHERE PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TO LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES OUR FCST...BEHIND
THE EXITING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE
SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AROUND 21Z WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
QUICKLY SHIFTING E ACROSS FAR E ONTARIO AND LAKE HURON BY 06Z.
LOOK FOR THE NEARING RAIN MAKER /SFC LOW/ OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF THE N AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE 0.4-0.8IN OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...AND EXIT E IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW ACROSS UPPER MI IS NOT EXACT...BUT THE CONSENSUS FOLLOWED
THE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST PRECIP ABOUT 20MI FARTHER
S THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST. OTHERWISE...FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE. TO SHOW THE UNCERTAINTY...THE SFC LOW POSITION AT 00Z FRIDAY
OFF THE CANADIAN IS OVER DRUMMOND ISLAND...OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR OFF THE NAM...OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI FROM THE
SREF...AND ACROSS THE N HALF OF LAKE MI ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS
RAIN WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AS AT NWS MQT WE ARE AT A 6.96IN DEFICIT
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR...AND A 2.8 INCH DEFICIT SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
ANOTHER WARM UP SATURDAY-MONDAY...RETURNING TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S
FOR START OF THE NEXT WEEK. COULD HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. CAN/T RULE OUT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
ECMWF SHOW THE NEXT LOW CROSSING FROM MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC.
THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE LOW...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER TROUGH.
WILL SEE HOW THE FCST CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE EXTENDED SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT MORE CONSISTENT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
LOW TRACKING ACROSS N ONTARIO MONDAY. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP FOR US...AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE STAYS ACROSS CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR
CIGS WITH MID CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS INTO SAW
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS WINDS VEER TO NRLY WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. A LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH WINDS
PEAKING AROUND 25KTS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN FROM THE SW LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
727 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NE THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO
TOWARD JAMES BAY. AT THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTH INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK
RIDGE WAS NOTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IR SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATED LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI...BUT
WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE COUNTY.
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PASS ACROSS THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE ONLY WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AS BEST
DYNAMICS/LIFT REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE UPPER LAKES ALONG PATH OF
SHORTWAVE AS NOTED BY 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV FIELDS.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAK 850-800 MB FGEN FORCING AND WEAK
INSTABILITY (CAPES LESS THAN 100 J/KG) ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE ERN
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. EVEN WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE...MIXING
THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS 6-7C SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL
KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER THERE (LOWER 60S).
TONIGHT...AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
EVENING...EXPECT A CLEARING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY
QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR IN NW FLOW AS 8H TEMPS DROP NEAR 0C OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z WED. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LOW CLOUDS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE EAST SO WL CONTINUE TO KEEP A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER THERE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
30S INTERIOR WEST WHERE PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TO LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES OUR FCST...BEHIND
THE EXITING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE
SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AROUND 21Z WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
QUICKLY SHIFTING E ACROSS FAR E ONTARIO AND LAKE HURON BY 06Z.
LOOK FOR THE NEARING RAIN MAKER /SFC LOW/ OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF THE N AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE 0.4-0.8IN OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...AND EXIT E IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW ACROSS UPPER MI IS NOT EXACT...BUT THE CONSENSUS FOLLOWED
THE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST PRECIP ABOUT 20MI FARTHER
S THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST. OTHERWISE...FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE. TO SHOW THE UNCERTAINTY...THE SFC LOW POSITION AT 00Z FRIDAY
OFF THE CANADIAN IS OVER DRUMMOND ISLAND...OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR OFF THE NAM...OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI FROM THE
SREF...AND ACROSS THE N HALF OF LAKE MI ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS
RAIN WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AS AT NWS MQT WE ARE AT A 6.96IN DEFICIT
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR...AND A 2.8 INCH DEFICIT SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
ANOTHER WARM UP SATURDAY-MONDAY...RETURNING TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S
FOR START OF THE NEXT WEEK. COULD HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. CAN/T RULE OUT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
ECMWF SHOW THE NEXT LOW CROSSING FROM MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC.
THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE LOW...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER TROUGH.
WILL SEE HOW THE FCST CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE EXTENDED SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT MORE CONSISTENT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
LOW TRACKING ACROSS N ONTARIO MONDAY. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP FOR US...AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE STAYS ACROSS CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. A LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH WINDS
PEAKING AROUND 25KTS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN FROM THE SW LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
428 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NE THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO
TOWARD JAMES BAY. AT THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTH INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK
RIDGE WAS NOTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IR SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATED LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI...BUT
WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE COUNTY.
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PASS ACROSS THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE ONLY WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AS BEST
DYNAMICS/LIFT REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE UPPER LAKES ALONG PATH OF
SHORTWAVE AS NOTED BY 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV FIELDS.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAK 850-800 MB FGEN FORCING AND WEAK
INSTABILITY (CAPES LESS THAN 100 J/KG) ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE ERN
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. EVEN WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE...MIXING
THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS 6-7C SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL
KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER THERE (LOWER 60S).
TONIGHT...AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
EVENING...EXPECT A CLEARING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY
QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR IN NW FLOW AS 8H TEMPS DROP NEAR 0C OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z WED. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LOW CLOUDS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE EAST SO WL CONTINUE TO KEEP A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER THERE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
30S INTERIOR WEST WHERE PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TO LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES OUR FCST...BEHIND
THE EXITING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE
SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AROUND 21Z WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
QUICKLY SHIFTING E ACROSS FAR E ONTARIO AND LAKE HURON BY 06Z.
LOOK FOR THE NEARING RAIN MAKER /SFC LOW/ OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF THE N AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE 0.4-0.8IN OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...AND EXIT E IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW ACROSS UPPER MI IS NOT EXACT...BUT THE CONSENSUS FOLLOWED
THE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST PRECIP ABOUT 20MI FARTHER
S THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST. OTHERWISE...FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE. TO SHOW THE UNCERTAINTY...THE SFC LOW POSITION AT 00Z FRIDAY
OFF THE CANADIAN IS OVER DRUMMOND ISLAND...OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR OFF THE NAM...OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI FROM THE
SREF...AND ACROSS THE N HALF OF LAKE MI ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS
RAIN WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AS AT NWS MQT WE ARE AT A 6.96IN DEFICIT
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR...AND A 2.8 INCH DEFICIT SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
ANOTHER WARM UP SATURDAY-MONDAY...RETURNING TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S
FOR START OF THE NEXT WEEK. COULD HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. CAN/T RULE OUT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
ECMWF SHOW THE NEXT LOW CROSSING FROM MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC.
THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE LOW...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER TROUGH.
WILL SEE HOW THE FCST CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE EXTENDED SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT MORE CONSISTENT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
LOW TRACKING ACROSS N ONTARIO MONDAY. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP FOR US...AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE STAYS ACROSS CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL ALLOW VFR CIGS TO PERSIST
AT KSAW INTO LATE THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT KCMX AND KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. A LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH WINDS
PEAKING AROUND 25KTS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN FROM THE SW LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
407 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NE THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO
TOWARD JAMES BAY. AT THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTH INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK
RIDGE WAS NOTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IR SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATED LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI...BUT
WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE COUNTY.
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PASS ACROSS THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE ONLY WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AS BEST
DYNAMICS/LIFT REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE UPPER LAKES ALONG PATH OF
SHORTWAVE AS NOTED BY 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV FIELDS.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAK 850-800 MB FGEN FORCING AND WEAK
INSTABILITY (CAPES LESS THAN 100 J/KG) ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE ERN
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. EVEN WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE...MIXING
THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS 6-7C SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL
KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER THERE (LOWER 60S).
TONIGHT...AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
EVENING...EXPECT A CLEARING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY
QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR IN NW FLOW AS 8H TEMPS DROP NEAR 0C OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z WED. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LOW CLOUDS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE EAST SO WL CONTINUE TO KEEP A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER THERE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
30S INTERIOR WEST WHERE PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TO LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BE DEPARTING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD....ALLOWING A HIGH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT DEPARTS...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS. 12Z NAM WAS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE ON THAT IDEA (MORE THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN AND OTHER MODELS)...BOTH WITH THE MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR...SO WILL AT LEAST SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER LOWER LEVEL
AIR WORKS BACK IN. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WOULD EXPECT DIURNAL HEATING TO LEAD TO CU DEVELOPMENT
AND WILL SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN
AREAS.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE TIED TO A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL
COME ONSHORE TOMORROW. THE WAVE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...MODELS STILL DIFFERING SOME ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND IN TURN THE SWATH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW. OVERALL...LIKE A GENERAL COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WITH THE LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND THEN QUICKLY DEPARTING ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE U.P.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TIED TO THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST
RAIN (STRONG 925-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALIGNED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.P.).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW...LEADING TO A
NICE DAY ON FRIDAY. BUT THAT WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MID-HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRUSH
THE AREA SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. BEST MOISTURE/FORCING
STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW...SO WILL JUST SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL ALLOW VFR CIGS TO PERSIST
AT KSAW INTO LATE THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT KCMX AND KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. A LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH WINDS
PEAKING AROUND 25KTS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN FROM THE SW LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
133 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED WSW MID/UPPER LEVEL NRN STREAM
FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SE MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM ERN MANITOBA
INTO THE NW CORNER OF MN. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILED FROM
SRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. VIS LOOP INDICATED LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI BUT WITH SOME CLEARING FAR WEST AS
DEVELOPING SW FLOW BRINGS IN SOME DRIER AIR. WEBCAMS...RADAR AND SFC
VSBY INDICATED THAT THE PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM NEAR ESC-MNM AND OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPPER MI HAS DIMINISHED.
TONIGHT... EXPECT THE MANITOBA SHRTWV TO LIFT ENE TO NEAR JAMES BAY
BY 12Z...DRAGGING THE FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. 925-850 MB WINDS
VEERING FROM SW TO W SHOULD HELP BRING A PERIOD OF CLEARING.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN LATE. SO...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP OFF
QUICKLY...EXPECT MINS ONLY TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S BEFORE CLOUDS
MOVE BACK IN. SOME DRIZZLE MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE THIS
EVENING BUT THE VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DRYING SHOULD ALSO HELP
TO END ANY LIGHT PCPN.
TUE...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA. THE
STRONGEST 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE SHRTWV WILL REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAK FORCING INTO THE
ERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. EVEN WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE...MIXING
THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 7C SHOULD MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BE DEPARTING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD....ALLOWING A HIGH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT DEPARTS...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS. 12Z NAM WAS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE ON THAT IDEA (MORE THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN AND OTHER MODELS)...BOTH WITH THE MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR...SO WILL AT LEAST SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER LOWER LEVEL
AIR WORKS BACK IN. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WOULD EXPECT DIURNAL HEATING TO LEAD TO CU DEVELOPMENT
AND WILL SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN
AREAS.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE TIED TO A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL
COME ONSHORE TOMORROW. THE WAVE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...MODELS STILL DIFFERING SOME ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND IN TURN THE SWATH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW. OVERALL...LIKE A GENERAL COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WITH THE LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND THEN QUICKLY DEPARTING ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE U.P.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TIED TO THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST
RAIN (STRONG 925-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALIGNED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.P.).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW...LEADING TO A
NICE DAY ON FRIDAY. BUT THAT WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MID-HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRUSH
THE AREA SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. BEST MOISTURE/FORCING
STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW...SO WILL JUST SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL ALLOW VFR CIGS TO PERSIST
AT KSAW INTO LATE THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT KCMX AND KIWD. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM A HIGH IN
QUEBEC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT MAINLY OVER WEST AND CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW
MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH WINDS PEAKING AROUND 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
353 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2015
Scattered sprinkles/light rain showers have developed over
northwestern MO early this morning ahead of a weak vort max in
northeastern KS. The area with light sprinkles also coincided with
an area of moisture convergence between H8-H7 as well as a pocket of
steeper lapse rates. A few sprinkles or light rain showers could
move into central or northeastern MO this morning.
The slow warming trend continues today with afternoon highs expected
to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. This should lead to highs
in the 70s across most of the area, although a few sites in
southeastern MO and/or southwestern IL could reach the lower 80s
depending on how quickly the clouds clear out.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2015
Forecast trends will remain essentially unchanged in this
forecast package: dry and mild weather is expected tonight and
into Wednesday, followed by a chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the Thursday-Friday time frame as upper level shortwave and
trof and associated cold front work their way across the
Mississippi Valley. The only real change in the forecast was a
slight slowing of the southward progression of PoPs across the
area, as all of the 00z guidance was just a bit slower with the
shortwave and cold front than earlier solutions. The slower
solutions also dovetails with the idea of holding onto low chance
PoPs over southern sections of the CWA on Friday. Have decided to
maintain highest PoPs for this event at around 50% for
now...although MET and MAV are considerably lower operational
ECMWF-based MOS guidance is indicating likely PoPs in many areas
with the fropa. Additional adjustments to PoPs will probably be
necessary with time as the details become a bit more clear.
Daytime highs will be above average on Wednesday and Thursday with
highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s. However, temperatures will be
dipping below seasonal norms by Friday, as the post-frontal cool-
down shaves some 10-15 degrees off of max temps.
Medium range solutions are still indicating that this cool down will
be brief, as the progressive UA regime across the CONUS allows a
strong ridge to build back into the nations`s midsection for the
start of next week. Guidance is suggesting 850MB temps of at least
16-18C on Monday, which would certainly support highs back in the
80s over most of the CWA. Lack of moisture and any significant
dynamics/lift suggest dry weather will accompany this warmup.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2015
Weak upper level system will move across the region te next 24
hours bringing back the northwest flow aloft. Main question is
will the mvfr clouds return: all sites vfr at taf issuance. Have
gone VFR for now with the idea that extensive mid and high clouds
will prevent widespreas redevelopment. Some sprinkles possible
from the mid clouds from the upper level system. Will watch cloud
trends closely for COU and UIN.
Specifics for KSTL: RAP noses in some lower RH values from the
east. This along with the mid and high clouds should keep STL VFR.
Fingers are crossed.
JPK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 77 61 79 63 / 5 10 5 5
Quincy 74 56 77 59 / 10 10 10 10
Columbia 74 57 78 60 / 20 10 10 10
Jefferson City 74 57 78 59 / 20 10 10 10
Salem 77 57 79 59 / 5 10 5 5
Farmington 76 56 77 57 / 5 10 10 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1040 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH QUIET AND DRY WEATHER BEFORE A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE SEEING A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS CLEARED THE AREA
AND ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LIKEWISE EXITED/DISIPATED. LOW-LEVEL
CAA IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND IR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW SOME SCT STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH MORE
EXTENSION CLOUD COVER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD ACROSS
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT. CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION
LAYER NEAR 5 KFT...BUT RAP AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONTINUED DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THESE CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP...INCLUDING AT SLK THIS EVENING. MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG
WORDING OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NW GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO WILL BRING DIMINISHING WIND
LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...EXCEPT AREAS OF MID 30S ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
IN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DUE TO A
ROBUST FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
BEGINNING TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT TOMORROW
WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THAT ALL CHANGES GOING INTO THURSDAY LATE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES RAPIDLY ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
ONCE THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES INTO THE REGION
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.5-1" INCH RANGE SO NO HYDRO
CONCERNS WITH RIVERS RUNNING QUITE LOW. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID
50S DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO I DONT EXPECT ANY WHITE FLAKES
FALLING QUITE YET. FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT ANTICIPATE TEMPS
COOLING TO INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FCST WILL FEATURE A VERY
CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH TEMPS STARTING BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND...WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN TWD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN IS VERY TYPICAL OF MID OCTOBER...WITH SYSTEMS EVERY COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON SATURDAY 1024 MB HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH COOL NW SFC WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C SUPPORT
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S MTNS TOWNS TO MID 50S WARMER
VALLEYS. NOTE SUMMITS HOLD IN THE 30S WITH SOME RIME POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY MORNING FROM LEFTOVER MOISTURE. SFC HIGH PRES QUICKLY
SHIFTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
BY 12Z SUNDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS QUICKLY WARM BACK BTWN 6-8C ON
SUNDAY AND BTWN 10-12C ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF SFC
BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY
TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 70F BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRICKY
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOME CLOUDS BUT THINKING
LOWS MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 50F. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH CHC ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE AND STRONG LLVL CAA ON BACK SIDE ASSOCIATED
WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF. WINDOW OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ONLY BE 3 TO 6 HOURS WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY < 0.50". TEMPS COOL
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDS...BEFORE ANOTHER DEEPER TROF AND
STRONG LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
HINTS AT THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF LOCAL FOG/BR POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT CROSSING REGION
THIS EVENING WILL PROVIDE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND DRYING LOW
LEVELS. THIS DRYING IN COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD OF
12-18 KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD PROHIBIT FOG FORMATION AT
MOST SITES. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SOME FOG/BR AT SLK WHERE THIS AFTERNOON`S RAINFALL AND
LACK OF DRYING SUNSHINE MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS JUST MOIST ENOUGH FOR
SOME FORMATION. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR AREA-WIDE
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
VFR THRU 06Z FRIDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV. DEVELOPING JET 3000 TO 4000 FEET AGL
OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS MAY PRODUCE SOME LLVL SHEAR/TURBULENCE NEAR THE
MTNS ON FRIDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN BY 00Z SATURDAY. VFR PREVAILS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
126 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TOMORROW. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
AND A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT TUESDAY...KEEPING WITH PREVIOUS TREND OF MORE
CLOUDS ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST CHANGES ON
TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST
SATELLITE PICS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH
SOME BREAKS OVER NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
SOUTH. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL
PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OR FROST IN MOST AREAS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SEEING SOME LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST VERMONT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY FAIR WEATHER DAY FOR
TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
MID 60S IN THE WARMER PARTS OF OUR CWA ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN BE QUIET AND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AS AREA WILL MAINLY
BE CLOUDY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OUR WEST. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THINK WILL MAINLY
JUST HAVE CLOUDS FOR OUR AREA AND HAVE MENTIONED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND VERY WEAK DYNAMICS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO BE MILD WITH CLOUDS REMAINING OVER THE REGION
DESPITE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...SEASONAL EARLY FALL TEMPERATURES AND A
PERIODIC THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUED TO BE OFFERED FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION
ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE 7-DAY PERIOD.
GIVEN THIS SYSTEM IS OF MARITIME ORIGIN AND WITH MORE OF AN
EASTERLY (AS OPPOSED TO A SOUTHERLY) TRAJECTORY, THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS REALLY WON`T CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH BY NEXT WEEKEND. THUS
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 35 TO
45 DEGREE RANGE STILL LOOK REASONABLY ON TRACK. TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY MAY ENCROACH FROM
THE NORTH WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE
SOMEWHAT AT ODDS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM, WITH LATEST TRENDS OF THE GFS BACKING OFF SOMEWHAT ON
ITS EARLIER SURGE. WILL TAKE THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET AT THIS
POINT, OFFERING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE DISCREPANCIES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR MIST AT MPV.
METARS AND INFRARED SATELLITE SHOW BKN/OVC VFR DECK (BASES
050-070) ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT RUT. LOWER-LEVEL RH PROGS
FROM THE LATEST RAP MODEL SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS INTRODUCE SOME QUESTION AS TO FOG/MIST
POTENTIAL. IT`S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THE CLOUDS MAY HAMPER MUCH IF
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. I`VE TRENDED MPV TAF TO A MORE OPTIMISTIC
VISBY FORECAST (MVFR/IFR) WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT SOME
THINNING OF THIS CLOUD BANK ON TUESDAY BUT IT MAY BE SLOW TO DO
SO. WINDS LIGHT /TERRAIN- DRIVEN.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF REGIONAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK 07-13Z EACH DAY.
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MFVR CIGS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHEST SHOWER
COVERAGE 12Z-20Z FRIDAY.
12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/SLW
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
100 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WELL
OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 155 PM TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR WATER
LOGGED EASTERN NC. BASED ON TRENDS IN THE RADAR AND THE 12Z MODELS
HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY AS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COASTAL LOW WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH BUT SHOULD
BECOME NOTICEABLY LIGHTER BY EARLY EVENING AS THE GRADIENT FINALLYLESSENS
WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SREF/NARRE HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE PERSISTENT
CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER UNTIL EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY
ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS 1 TO 3 DEGREES DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND NOW THINKING MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
LUCKY TO HIT 70 DEGREES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGE FROM MID 50S INLAND TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE BEACHES. FULL
DECOUPLING MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE NORMALLY INLAND SPOTS TO REACH
NEAR 50 BY SUNRISE. CUD SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG LATE GIVEN WET
GROUND AND COOL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THROUGH LATE WEEK. SHOULD SEE MIN TEMPS MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND TO LOW/MID 60S COAST WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES/MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND GENERALLY USED BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
FROPA SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH BEST
DYNAMICS REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND HELD POPS TO LOW
CHANCE ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
OVER EASTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE
MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY THEN SSHOULDBEGIN TO DISSIPATE 21-23Z AS
DRIER AIR FINALLY SCOURS OUT THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE AS WINDS DECOUPLE. EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...EXPECT PRED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INVERSIONS
DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN
LIMITED, STILL CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF SUB-VFR VSBYS/CEILINGS
OCCURRING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS RTES EARLY SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS LOOK LIMITED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AROUND DEEP
LOW OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS AS WINDS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO DECREASE AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS OUT TO SEA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 10-14 FT TODAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY TONIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER
OFFSHORE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...N/NE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY
AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
NWPS HAS SEAS AROUND 6-9 FT NORTH AND 3-7 FT SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHICH GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW 6 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO SW AROUND 10-15 KTS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT. USED A COMPROMISE OF GFS/ECMWF FOR
FRONTAL TIMING SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AROUND 5-15 KTS AFTER FROPA. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT A
BIT STRONGER WITH THE POST FRONTAL SURGE SO WILL HAVE MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWIFT
CREEK AT STREETS FERRY WITH LEVEL RIGHT NEAR MODERATE FLOODING.
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE TRENT RIVER AT POLLOCKSVILLE.
THE TRENT RIVER IS SLOWLY FALLING AND SHOULD DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT POLLOCKSVILLE LATER TODAY.
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NE CAPE FEAR RIVER AT
CHINQUAPIN. THE RIVER IS PEAKING IN MINOR FLOOD AT CHINQUAPIN
THIS MORNING BUT WILL LINGER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS.
THE OTHER MAINSTEM RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE TAR, NEUSE AND
ROANOKE RIVER BASINS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE THIS
WEEK BUT MAY LINGER NEAR OR AT ACTION STAGE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 530 AM TUESDAY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR OBX
DARE THRU THIS AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE FOR MODERATE FLOODING ON BOTH
OCEANSIDE AND SOUNDSIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER AREAS ADJACENT TO ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS, AND THE NEUSE, PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS. THE MOREHEAD CITY
AND BEAUFORT WATERFRONT MAY AGAIN SEE MINOR FLOODING DURING THIS
AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE. NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH WILL ALSO SEE HIGH
WATER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-104.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...BTC/SK
MARINE...JME/BTC/SK
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
926 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WELL
OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR WATER
LOGGED EASTERN NC WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT COASTAL
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS. VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OFF THE SE COAST WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY. A SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES PIVOTING SSW AROUND
THE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE LOOKOUT THIS
MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. A FEW
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SOUTHERN OBX THIS BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. SREF/NARRE HRRR MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE PERSISTENT CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER
ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 22Z THEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGE FROM MID 50S INLAND TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE BEACHES. FULL
DECOUPLING MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE NORMALLY INLAND SPOTS TO REACH
NEAR 50 BY SUNRISE. CUD SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG LATE GIVEN WET
GROUND AND COOL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THROUGH LATE WEEK. SHOULD SEE MIN TEMPS MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND TO LOW/MID 60S COAST WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES/MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND GENERALLY USED BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
FROPA SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH BEST
DYNAMICS REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND HELD POPS TO LOW
CHANCE ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
OVER EASTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE
MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM TUESDAY...CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR OR LOW MVFR
EARLY THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO SCOUR OUT IN THE LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW THRU MIDDAY WITH VFR
POSSIBLY NOT RETURNING UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS THRU THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR AND CALM
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHALLOW FOG PATCHES MAY DEVELOP OVER WET GROUND
WITH COOL TEMPS, BUT SHUDNT BE WIDESPREAD GIVEN LOW DEW POINTS SO
NO TAF INCLUSION AS YET.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...EXPECT PRED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INVERSIONS
DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN
LIMITED, STILL CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF SUB-VFR VSBYS/CEILINGS
OCCURRING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS RTES EARLY SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS LOOK LIMITED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AROUND DEEP LOW
OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS AS WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASE WITH THE LOW MOVING SLOWLY DRIFTING FARTHER OUT
TO SEA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 10-14
FT MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...N/NE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY
AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
NWPS HAS SEAS AROUND 6-9 FT NORTH AND 3-7 FT SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHICH GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW 6 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO SW AROUND 10-15 KTS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT. USED A COMPROMISE OF GFS/ECMWF FOR
FRONTAL TIMING SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AROUND 5-15 KTS AFTER FROPA. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT A
BIT STRONGER WITH THE POST FRONTAL SURGE SO WILL HAVE MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWIFT
CREEK AT STREETS FERRY WITH LEVEL RIGHT NEAR MODERATE FLOODING.
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE TRENT RIVER AT POLLOCKSVILLE.
THE TRENT RIVER IS SLOWLY FALLING AND SHOULD DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT POLLOCKSVILLE LATER TODAY.
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NE CAPE FEAR RIVER AT
CHINQUAPIN. THE RIVER IS PEAKING IN MINOR FLOOD AT CHINQUAPIN
THIS MORNING BUT WILL LINGER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS.
THE OTHER MAINSTEM RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE TAR, NEUSE AND
ROANOKE RIVER BASINS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE THIS
WEEK BUT MAY LINGER NEAR OR AT ACTION STAGE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 530 AM TUESDAY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR OBX
DARE THRU THIS AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE FOR MODERATE FLOODING ON BOTH
OCEANSIDE AND SOUNDSIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER AREAS ADJACENT TO ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS, AND THE NEUSE, PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS. THE MOREHEAD CITY
AND BEAUFORT WATERFRONT MAY AGAIN SEE MINOR FLOODING DURING THIS
AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE. NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH WILL ALSO SEE HIGH
WATER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-104.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...BTC/SK
MARINE...JME/BTC/SK
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
945 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND CLOUD TRENDS BUT OVERALL FORECAST ON
TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
PCPN BAND PROGRESSIVE AND MAIN CHANGES WERE TRIMMING POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FA THROUGH THE EVENING. THUNDER CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND WILL LIMIT T MENTION TO THIS AREA. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH AS MOST AREAS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
TIMING AND PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN CURRENTLY. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST ENTERING NORTHWESTERN ND. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY DOWN
TOWARDS CENTRAL ND...AND WITH SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED CAPE...A FEW
HAVE GROWN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER. RAIN HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
SLOW TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR AT THE SFC...BUT WEB CAMS
SHOW SOME LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN GETTING HEAVIER RETURNS HAVE
BEEN SATURATED. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT BEEN DOING TOO BADLY
WITH THE POPS SO FOLLOWED THEIR TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THINK
THAT THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THINK WE WILL DRY OUT BY
MORNING AS THIS FAIRLY FAST MOVING SYSTEM MOVES BY. LOWERED PRECIP
AMOUNTS JUST A BIT AS SOME OF THE FIRST RAIN HAS NOT REACHED THE
GROUND...BUT THINK THAT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE AROUND A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH.
TOMORROW...THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY OFF INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
IT. THERE HAS BEEN SOME GOOD RH VALUES AT 850MB SO THINK THAT
CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED THURSDAY.
BETWEEN CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN THE
50S...WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT RATHER RAW. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS COULD
AGAIN GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. HAVE COORDINATED WITH
NEIGHBORS A CONTINUATION OF FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AT LEAST...BUT HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HEADLINES FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO
UPPER RIDGING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SFC WILL PICK
UP AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMING UP FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
60S...BUT READINGS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SATURDAY AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 C.
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD GET NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK ON
SATURDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY TIME FRAME WITH POPS WILL BE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO THE THE EARLY MONDAY HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE AND FROPA
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THAT WAVE WILL BE NEAR
RECORD WARM TEMPS ON SUNDAY...UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH IDEAL
WESTERLY SFC WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 15 TO 20C RANGE. BEHIND
THE FROPA TEMPS WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID OCTOBER...LOW TO MID 60S FOR MAX TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
AVIATION FORECAST MAY BE TRICKY TONIGHT. CURRENTLY ALL SITES VFR.
MOST SHOULD STAY THAT WAY TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BJI.
SOME GUIDANCE LOWERING CIGS THERE INTO MVFR RANGE WITH CURRENT
RAINFALL. AS LOW PASSES LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME WRAP AROUND
MVFR CIGS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH HALF INTO MID/LATE MORNING. T
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN FA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO MADE
BEST ATTEMPT TO TIME WSHFT ACROSS THE FA.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
919 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
FOR THIS UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN PARTS OF THE WEST TO
CAPTURE THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...AND DECIDED TO INTRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHWEST BASED ON LOWER CLOUDS FROM CANADA
ENCROACHING ON THE BORDER AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. OTHER THAN
THAT...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
MAIN CHANGES FOR UPDATE WERE TO TRIM BACK WESTERN EDGE OF POPS AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF CWA.
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN MCINTOSH COUNTY. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS
AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG CAPE AND 50KTS 0-6KM SHEAR OVER THIS AREA BUT
ANY STORMS HAVE REMAINED WEAK AND NOT WELL ORGANIZED. ALSO MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
EXPECT REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MOVING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE FOCUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A NARROW BAND ALONG THE FRONT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT IN A WEDGE THAT WILL LEAVE SOME CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE LOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING IN COOL AIR STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY COOL MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRFLOW OUT OF THE NORTH SHOULD
BRING STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES COOL
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE STATE. LOWERED HIGHS FROM MINOT TO
BISMARCK AND EAST A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS LOOK LIKE THE LOWER 50S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
BY THURSDAY EVENING A COOL SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE OVER THE
REGION...WITH CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST...WITH COOLEST AIR AND LIGHTEST WINDS OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND WINDS IN THE WEST BECOMING SOUTHERLY WITH THE
HIGH TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER...WITH LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN SURFACE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
LARGE AREA OF WARM AND DRY AIR TO CONTINUE PUSHING INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. AFTER A COOL DAY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER...WITH WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOW TO
MID 80S SOUTH.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. CONTINUE TO EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM KMOT-
KBIS-KJMS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA...EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
PCPN BAND PROGRESSIVE AND MAIN CHANGES WERE TRIMMING POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FA THROUGH THE EVENING. THUNDER CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND WILL LIMIT T MENTION TO THIS AREA. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH AS MOST AREAS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
TIMING AND PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN CURRENTLY. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST ENTERING NORTHWESTERN ND. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY DOWN
TOWARDS CENTRAL ND...AND WITH SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED CAPE...A FEW
HAVE GROWN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER. RAIN HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
SLOW TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR AT THE SFC...BUT WEB CAMS
SHOW SOME LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN GETTING HEAVIER RETURNS HAVE
BEEN SATURATED. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT BEEN DOING TOO BADLY
WITH THE POPS SO FOLLOWED THEIR TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THINK
THAT THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THINK WE WILL DRY OUT BY
MORNING AS THIS FAIRLY FAST MOVING SYSTEM MOVES BY. LOWERED PRECIP
AMOUNTS JUST A BIT AS SOME OF THE FIRST RAIN HAS NOT REACHED THE
GROUND...BUT THINK THAT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE AROUND A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH.
TOMORROW...THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY OFF INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
IT. THERE HAS BEEN SOME GOOD RH VALUES AT 850MB SO THINK THAT
CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED THURSDAY.
BETWEEN CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN THE
50S...WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT RATHER RAW. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS COULD
AGAIN GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. HAVE COORDINATED WITH
NEIGHBORS A CONTINUATION OF FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AT LEAST...BUT HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HEADLINES FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO
UPPER RIDGING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SFC WILL PICK
UP AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMING UP FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
60S...BUT READINGS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SATURDAY AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 C.
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD GET NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK ON
SATURDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY TIME FRAME WITH POPS WILL BE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO THE THE EARLY MONDAY HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE AND FROPA
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THAT WAVE WILL BE NEAR
RECORD WARM TEMPS ON SUNDAY...UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH IDEAL
WESTERLY SFC WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 15 TO 20C RANGE. BEHIND
THE FROPA TEMPS WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID OCTOBER...LOW TO MID 60S FOR MAX TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
AVIATION FORECAST MAY BE TRICKY TONIGHT. CURRENTLY ALL SITES VFR.
MOST SHOULD STAY THAT WAY TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BJI.
SOME GUIDANCE LOWERING CIGS THERE INTO MVFR RANGE WITH CURRENT
RAINFALL. AS LOW PASSES LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME WRAP AROUND
MVFR CIGS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH HALF INTO MID/LATE MORNING. T
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN FA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO MADE
BEST ATTEMPT TO TIME WSHFT ACROSS THE FA.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
643 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
MAIN CHANGES FOR UPDATE WERE TO TRIM BACK WESTERN EDGE OF POPS AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF CWA.
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN MCINTOSH COUNTY. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS
AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG CAPE AND 50KTS 0-6KM SHEAR OVER THIS AREA BUT
ANY STORMS HAVE REMAINED WEAK AND NOT WELL ORGANIZED. ALSO MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
EXPECT REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MOVING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE FOCUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A NARROW BAND ALONG THE FRONT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT IN A WEDGE THAT WILL LEAVE SOME CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE LOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING IN COOL AIR STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY COOL MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRFLOW OUT OF THE NORTH SHOULD
BRING STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES COOL
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE STATE. LOWERED HIGHS FROM MINOT TO
BISMARCK AND EAST A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS LOOK LIKE THE LOWER 50S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
BY THURSDAY EVENING A COOL SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE OVER THE
REGION...WITH CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST...WITH COOLEST AIR AND LIGHTEST WINDS OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND WINDS IN THE WEST BECOMING SOUTHERLY WITH THE
HIGH TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER...WITH LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN SURFACE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
LARGE AREA OF WARM AND DRY AIR TO CONTINUE PUSHING INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. AFTER A COOL DAY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER...WITH WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOW TO
MID 80S SOUTH.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING. CONTINUE TO EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY FROM KMOT-
KBIS-KJMS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA...EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JNS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS THE REGION OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
LEVEL COOL POOL LYING ALONG AND NORTH OF I94. THESE CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO ERODE AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. WILL UPDATE CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES AS THIS FEATURE MOVES SOUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A COOL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
ALONG WITH A CLOUD BAND ALONG THAT LINE. AN AREA OF DENSE FOG
ALSO EXTENDED FROM HAZEN NORTHWEST TO WATFORD CITY AND TO NEAR THE
ND/MT BORDER. WILL UPDATE CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMPERATURES. WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE LONGER UNTIL NOON. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
A BIT WEST CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN ISSUE IS FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE FOG
WILL LIFT MOST AREAS BY 10 AM. WILL THEN TRANSLATE AN AREA OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IT
AS THE HEATING BURNS OFF THE LOW CLOUDS HOPEFULLY BY NOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE SPREAD AREAS OF FOG FURTHER TO THE WEST
AND NORTH AS VISIBILITIES IN IN BISMARCK AND WATFORD CITY HAVE
DROPPED TO AROUND A MILE. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. FOG SHOULD START DETERIORATING BY MID-
MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FOG THIS
MORNING.
CURRENTLY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE LOW CIGS PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
CLEAR OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. AS THE HRRR PREDICTED EARLIER...AREAS OF FOG
COMMON OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR
ADVERTISES THESE LOW VSBYS ERODING AROUND 15Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS MAY INDEED BE THE
CASE. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF THE FOG IN THE HWO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. CLOUDS CLEAR MID TO
LATE MORNING LEADING TO A PLEASANT/SUNNY FALL AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS 55-65 AND LIGHT WINDS.
INCREASING RETURN FLOW TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WARMER WEST IN THE 40S WHERE THE STRONGER RETURN FLOW
WILL BE...30S EAST. CLOUDS INCREASE WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING EAST-
SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WHILE LOW WORKS EASTERLY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD SHORT WAVE WORKS THROUGH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS APPROACH AND COOL FRONT
WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WORKS IN. WILL KEEP LOW MENTION
OF THUNDER GOING WITH MODEST INSTABILITY STILL NOTED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH
A CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER.
WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OVER
THE AREA.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE THE START OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING QUESTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY. HOWEVER A VERY SMALL SCALE FEATURE IS A BAND OF MVFR
CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I94 AT NOON TUESDAY. THIS ARE WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND ERODE WITH TIME. KDIK-KBIS-KJMS SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 THOUSAND BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS THE THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS AS THEY ARE ERODING.
FOR NOW JUST PUT KBIS IN THE MVFR BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1041 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A COOL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
ALONG WITH A CLOUD BAND ALONG THAT LINE. AN AREA OF DENSE FOG
ALSO EXTENDED FROM HAZEN NORTHWEST TO WATFORD CITY AND TO NEAR THE
ND/MT BORDER. WILL UPDATE CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMPERATURES. WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE LONGER UNTIL NOON. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
A BIT WEST CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN ISSUE IS FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE FOG
WILL LIFT MOST AREAS BY 10 AM. WILL THEN TRANSLATE AN AREA OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IT
AS THE HEATING BURNS OFF THE LOW CLOUDS HOPEFULLY BY NOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE SPREAD AREAS OF FOG FURTHER TO THE WEST
AND NORTH AS VISIBILITIES IN IN BISMARCK AND WATFORD CITY HAVE
DROPPED TO AROUND A MILE. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. FOG SHOULD START DETERIORATING BY MID-
MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FOG THIS
MORNING.
CURRENTLY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE LOW CIGS PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
CLEAR OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. AS THE HRRR PREDICTED EARLIER...AREAS OF FOG
COMMON OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR
ADVERTISES THESE LOW VSBYS ERODING AROUND 15Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS MAY INDEED BE THE
CASE. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF THE FOG IN THE HWO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. CLOUDS CLEAR MID TO
LATE MORNING LEADING TO A PLEASANT/SUNNY FALL AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS 55-65 AND LIGHT WINDS.
INCREASING RETURN FLOW TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WARMER WEST IN THE 40S WHERE THE STRONGER RETURN FLOW
WILL BE...30S EAST. CLOUDS INCREASE WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING EAST-
SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WHILE LOW WORKS EASTERLY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD SHORT WAVE WORKS THROUGH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS APPROACH AND COOL FRONT
WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WORKS IN. WILL KEEP LOW MENTION
OF THUNDER GOING WITH MODEST INSTABILITY STILL NOTED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH
A CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER.
WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OVER
THE AREA.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE THE START OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING QUESTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MVFR
CIGS AT KMOT THROUGH 13-15Z. FOG AT KDIK-KBIS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
912 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN ISSUE IS FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE FOG
WILL LIFT MOST AREAS BY 10 AM. WILL THEN TRANSLATE AN AREA OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IT
AS THE HEATING BURNS OFF THE LOW CLOUDS HOPEFULLY BY NOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE SPREAD AREAS OF FOG FURTHER TO THE WEST
AND NORTH AS VISIBILITIES IN IN BISMARCK AND WATFORD CITY HAVE
DROPPED TO AROUND A MILE. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. FOG SHOULD START DETERIORATING BY MID-
MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FOG THIS
MORNING.
CURRENTLY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE LOW CIGS PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
CLEAR OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. AS THE HRRR PREDICTED EARLIER...AREAS OF FOG
COMMON OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR
ADVERTISES THESE LOW VSBYS ERODING AROUND 15Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS MAY INDEED BE THE
CASE. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF THE FOG IN THE HWO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. CLOUDS CLEAR MID TO
LATE MORNING LEADING TO A PLEASANT/SUNNY FALL AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS 55-65 AND LIGHT WINDS.
INCREASING RETURN FLOW TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WARMER WEST IN THE 40S WHERE THE STRONGER RETURN FLOW
WILL BE...30S EAST. CLOUDS INCREASE WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING EAST-
SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WHILE LOW WORKS EASTERLY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD SHORT WAVE WORKS THROUGH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS APPROACH AND COOL FRONT
WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WORKS IN. WILL KEEP LOW MENTION
OF THUNDER GOING WITH MODEST INSTABILITY STILL NOTED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH
A CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER.
WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OVER
THE AREA.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE THE START OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING QUESTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MVFR
CIGS AT KMOT THROUGH 13-15Z. FOG AT KDIK-KBIS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
623 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE SPREAD AREAS OF FOG FURTHER TO THE WEST
AND NORTH AS VISIBILITIES IN IN BISMARCK AND WATFORD CITY HAVE
DROPPED TO AROUND A MILE. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. FOG SHOULD START DETERIORATING BY MID-
MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FOG THIS
MORNING.
CURRENTLY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE LOW CIGS PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
CLEAR OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. AS THE HRRR PREDICTED EARLIER...AREAS OF FOG
COMMON OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR
ADVERTISES THESE LOW VSBYS ERODING AROUND 15Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS MAY INDEED BE THE
CASE. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF THE FOG IN THE HWO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. CLOUDS CLEAR MID TO
LATE MORNING LEADING TO A PLEASANT/SUNNY FALL AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS 55-65 AND LIGHT WINDS.
INCREASING RETURN FLOW TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WARMER WEST IN THE 40S WHERE THE STRONGER RETURN FLOW
WILL BE...30S EAST. CLOUDS INCREASE WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING EAST-
SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WHILE LOW WORKS EASTERLY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD SHORT WAVE WORKS THROUGH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS APPROACH AND COOL FRONT
WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WORKS IN. WILL KEEP LOW MENTION
OF THUNDER GOING WITH MODEST INSTABILITY STILL NOTED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH
A CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER.
WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OVER
THE AREA.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE THE START OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING QUESTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MVFR
CIGS AT KMOT THROUGH 13-15Z. FOG AT KDIK-KBIS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
410 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FOG THIS
MORNING.
CURRENTLY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE LOW CIGS PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
CLEAR OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. AS THE HRRR PREDICTED EARLIER...AREAS OF FOG
COMMON OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR
ADVERTISES THESE LOW VSBYS ERODING AROUND 15Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS MAY INDEED BE THE
CASE. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF THE FOG IN THE HWO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. CLOUDS CLEAR MID TO
LATE MORNING LEADING TO A PLEASANT/SUNNY FALL AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS 55-65 AND LIGHT WINDS.
INCREASING RETURN FLOW TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WARMER WEST IN THE 40S WHERE THE STRONGER RETURN FLOW
WILL BE...30S EAST. CLOUDS INCREASE WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING EAST-
SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WHILE LOW WORKS EASTERLY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD SHORT WAVE WORKS THROUGH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS APPROACH AND COOL FRONT
WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WORKS IN. WILL KEEP LOW MENTION
OF THUNDER GOING WITH MODEST INSTABILITY STILL NOTED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH
A CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER.
WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OVER
THE AREA.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE THE START OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING QUESTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED AT KMOT AND POSSIBLY KISN THROUGH 13-15Z THIS
MORNING...AND FOG IS FORECAST AT KDIK PRODUCING IFR OR LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN NOW AND 16Z. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT
KBIS AND KJMS WITH A POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS PERIOD NEAR 13-16Z
TUESDAY. HOWEVER ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME AND WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF MVFR CIGS FOR KBIS/KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
110 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES AS WE ARE FALLING BELOW FORECAST MINS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH MANY
OBSERVING SITES REPORTING LOW/MID 30S. EXCEPTION IS MY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 40S ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARE KEEPING THINGS UP. THIS AREA TO SHALL
FALL AS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WILL MAINTAIN FOG MANY LOCATIONS...WITH AREAS OF FOG SOUTHWEST.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE FOG HEADLINES BECOME
WARRANTED. KHEI HAD 1/4 MILE IN FOG AN HOUR AGO...WITH BAKER MT
ALSO OBSERVING DENSE FOG.
BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOW STRATUS ADVECTING INTO MY NORTH. STRATUS
IS THERE...JUST NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL
CHANGE ONCE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE NORTH...THEN FULLY EXPECT
THE LOW STRATUS TO PUSH SOUTH MORE IN EARNEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING WAS
PRODUCING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ALONG WITH A GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY
FOR MOST OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE
IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR NORTH...FROM CROSBY EAST TO ROLLA. A POCKET OF GENERALLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS EXISTS SOUTH OF THIS AREA...UNTIL REACHING SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WERE AGAIN OBSERVED...BUT SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDS/FOG. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED AT BEACH WITH VISIBILITY AT 4SM. THE LATEST HRRR
ADVERTISES LOW VSBYS EXPANDING IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 09Z-
15Z TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IF TRENDS CONTINUE PER LATEST HRRR.
THE AREA OF CLOUDS IN THE FAR NORTH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY...AND THEN APPROACH BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN BY 12Z TUESDAY.
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CENTRAL IN THE MORNING WITH A
RETURN TO A SUNNY SKY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TWO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE FIRST AREA RESIDES IN THE NORTH...CURRENTLY NEAR THE
BORDER. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS/BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OF THE
RAP13/HRRR SHIFT THIS AREA BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RAP13/HRRR ARE INITIALIZING THE
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NOW...AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST.
THE SECOND AREA OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER ANY CLEARING MAY BE BRIEF AS FOG IS EXPECTED
IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA PER LATEST HRRR...AND CLOUDS MENTIONED
ABOVE FROM THE NORTH MAY REACH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY.
ADJUSTED SKY GRID UPWARD FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY MENTION
NORTH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR NOW SOUTHWEST WILL SUFFICE
AND WILL LOOK AT THIS AGAIN WITH THE HRRR LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CLOUDS VERY SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH. SLOW BUT STEADY CLEARING
CENTRAL AND NORTH. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S
BUT REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME FOG ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT 33-36 NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH 53-55 AND 60 TO 65 SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER
MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AT UPPER LEVELS...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN
PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE US
SOUTHWEST AND 4-CORNERS REGION WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ROCKIES RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWS IT INTO THE ROCKIES...AS
THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE US SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO INCORPORATE INTO THE
MORE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES. THE BEGINNINGS OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MERGES WITH THE SOUTHWEST LOW THAT
CONTINUES TO MERGE INTO THE WESTERLIES. THIS MERGING WILL BRING
PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO NORTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SOUTH-NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS - AND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE WHOLE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENDING FROM CENTRAL TO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
ENOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR FOR A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARM DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
DRY...BREEZY...AND COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS OF 55 TO 65.
AFTER A COOL MORNING FRIDAY...WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE 70S IN THE WEST FRIDAY...AND OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO KMOT AND POSSIBLY KISN 08Z-16Z THIS
MORNING...AND FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KDIK PRODUCING IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z-16Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED
AT KBIS AND KJMS WITH A POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS PERIOD NEAR 13-16Z
TUESDAY. HOWEVER ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME AND WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF MVFR CIGS FOR KBIS/KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
244 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 06Z...IR SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR DATA ARE NOT VERY
BULLISH TAKING LOW CLOUDS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE RT 6
CORRIDOR. EXPECT CLR SKIES TO PREVAIL FROM I-80 SOUTH TO THE MD
LINE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. DAYBREAK TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER IN THE NRN TIER WHERE SKIES ARE M/CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG
WILL SLOWLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THRU THE PRE DAWN HOURS ESPECIALLY
IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN VALLEYS WHERE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR.
MORNING VALLEY FOG SHOULD GIVE WAY TO FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WORKING EWD FROM THE OH VALLEY WHICH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT RANGING FROM THE THE U40S TO M50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING A LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE SKIRTING EWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN
TIER CONUS MAY TOUCH OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES...BUT THE OVERALL LACK OF FORCING AND
DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...AND
THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION PCPN ATTM. MDLS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT
IN A VERY LIGHT TO NO PCPN SCENARIO FOR THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK.
EXPECT M/CLOUDY BUT STILL PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS REMAINING
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE EARLY OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE STG WAA/SW
FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE RACING EWD
FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THRU THE GRT LKS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT CARVING OUT A DECENT MID-LVL TROUGH OVER
THE OH VLY INTO FRIDAY...WITH ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
MOISTURE FLUX VALUES SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLOW STAYS GENERALLY NW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
GFS HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN COUNTIES ON
SUNDAY. SO TOSSED IN MENTION OF LOW POPS THERE. OUTSIDE OF
THAT...BROAD WEAK RIDGING WORKS IN SUN AND MON AS SURFACE HIGH
OVER IL/MO WEAKENS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE SE.
SW FLOW INCREASES HEADING INTO TUE...AS ANOTHER TROUGH POTENTIALLY
APPROACHES FOR NEXT MIDWEEK.
TEMPS THIS TUE INTO WED WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WED NIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S
AREAWIDE...AND SOME NORTHERN MTN VALLEYS LIKELY SLIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S IF HIGH CLOUDS DON/T STREAM IN. A BIT MILDER AGAIN THU
NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT. THEN BEHIND COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND
HIGHS LOOK TO BE JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
SOME CLOUDS NEAR BFD. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...BFD WENT OVER TO
FOG SINCE I CAME IN AT MIDNIGHT. OTHER SITES MAY SEE AN HOUR
OR SO OF FOG LATER.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A DECENT EARLY FALL DAY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND NOTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA
AT 03Z. CHALLENGE IN THE FCST TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH FOG CAN FORM AS
A LAYER OF LOW/MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN LONGER THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NW MTNS
LATE THIS EVENING AND GIVEN 03Z DWPT DEPRESSION AT KBFD...NOW FEEL
A PERIOD OF IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KBFD BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THICKER
CLOUD COVER ARND 08Z. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF VIS
REDUCTIONS AT KUNV/KAOO BTWN 05Z-10Z BASED ON CURRENT DWPT DEP AND
LATE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS. PERHAPS THE BEST CHC OF FOG WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT IN VICINITY OF KMDT/KLNS...WHERE ANY CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ARND DAWN. HAVE TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR
THESE AIRFIELDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND LATEST DOWNSCALED
NAM...WHICH SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ARND KMDT/KLNS EARLY
TUE AM.
ANY FOG THAT MIGHT FORM SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM. MODEL DATA
SUPPORTS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS THE REST
OF TUESDAY...DESPITE A LINGERING CLOUD DECK ARND 4-5KFT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM FOG POSSIBLE...ESP KBFD.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
FRI...SHOWERS/MVFR CIGS POSS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1219 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE MAIN...IF NOT THE ONLY...FORECAST ISSUES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
ARE CLOUDS AND THE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY WAVE WILL BARELY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
THE W/SW LATE TONIGHT AS MODELS ARE SLOWER ON THAT APPROACH...AND
SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY NOT AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT MOISTURE LAYER AND CLOUD COVER IS CENTERED MOSTLY IN THE 800-
750MB RANGE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER CLOUDS SOUTHEAST. THE FINER TUNE
DETAIL SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM12 AND RAP KEEP THIS MOIST LAYER JUST
THICK ENOUGH TO RESIST ANY UNEXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WHICH COULD CAUSE
THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP QUICKLY...SO THEY SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL BEING
SCOURED/SHEARED OUT DURING THE DAY BY DRYING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH. THIS DRYING SURGE APPEARS TO WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY AS IT PUSHED
SOUTHEAST SO HAVE GONE SLOWER FAR SOUTHEAST ON THE DECREASE...AS
WELL AS FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THE DRY PUSH WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING
BLOW. THE DECREASE SHOULD PROCEED SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. BY THE WAY...THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE SEEN WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A DRYING SURGE FROM THE SOUTH KEEP FILLING IN AND PRETTY
MUCH ADDING AUTHORITY TO HOW THESE TWO MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM QUITE AS MUCH AS WE HAVE BEEN GOING FOR
DUE TO THE DELAYED CLEARING WITH HIGHS TODAY CLOSE TO 70...AT MOST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. CERTAINLY PLEASANT ENOUGH WITH THE FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS.
IN CONTRAST TO THE CLOUDIER PICTURE TODAY...TONIGHT SHOULD SEE FEWER
CLOUDS THAN WHAT WE WERE THINKING BEFORE WITH THE SLOWER APPROACH OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE
NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO 50 PLUS
ALONG THE MIGHTY MISSOURI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL TRY TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LIFT IS NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND FOCUS IS POINTED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. NEVERTHELESS...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERHAPS EVEN A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUILD SOUTHWEST ALONG AND ADVANCING FRONT LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF
HOLDS SECONDARY ELEVATED MOISTURE LAYER ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON
THURSDAY AND FOCUSES AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO EARLY EVENING. NEITHER NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA
OF ASCENT...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
AFTER A COOLER FRIDAY...THE HEAT BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S
SATURDAY...AND 80S SEEM LIKELY ON SUNDAY. THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK
REMAINS A FAVORABLE ONE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
616 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE MAIN...IF NOT THE ONLY...FORECAST ISSUES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
ARE CLOUDS AND THE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY WAVE WILL BARELY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
THE W/SW LATE TONIGHT AS MODELS ARE SLOWER ON THAT APPROACH...AND
SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY NOT AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT MOISTURE LAYER AND CLOUD COVER IS CENTERED MOSTLY IN THE 800-
750MB RANGE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER CLOUDS SOUTHEAST. THE FINER TUNE
DETAIL SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM12 AND RAP KEEP THIS MOIST LAYER JUST
THICK ENOUGH TO RESIST ANY UNEXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WHICH COULD CAUSE
THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP QUICKLY...SO THEY SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL BEING
SCOURED/SHEARED OUT DURING THE DAY BY DRYING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH. THIS DRYING SURGE APPEARS TO WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY AS IT PUSHED
SOUTHEAST SO HAVE GONE SLOWER FAR SOUTHEAST ON THE DECREASE...AS
WELL AS FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THE DRY PUSH WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING
BLOW. THE DECREASE SHOULD PROCEED SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. BY THE WAY...THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE SEEN WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A DRYING SURGE FROM THE SOUTH KEEP FILLING IN AND PRETTY
MUCH ADDING AUTHORITY TO HOW THESE TWO MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM QUITE AS MUCH AS WE HAVE BEEN GOING FOR
DUE TO THE DELAYED CLEARING WITH HIGHS TODAY CLOSE TO 70...AT MOST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. CERTAINLY PLEASANT ENOUGH WITH THE FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS.
IN CONTRAST TO THE CLOUDIER PICTURE TODAY...TONIGHT SHOULD SEE FEWER
CLOUDS THAN WHAT WE WERE THINKING BEFORE WITH THE SLOWER APPROACH OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE
NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO 50 PLUS
ALONG THE MIGHTY MISSOURI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL TRY TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LIFT IS NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND FOCUS IS POINTED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. NEVERTHELESS...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERHAPS EVEN A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUILD SOUTHWEST ALONG AND ADVANCING FRONT LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF
HOLDS SECONDARY ELEVATED MOISTURE LAYER ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON
THURSDAY AND FOCUSES AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO EARLY EVENING. NEITHER NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA
OF ASCENT...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
AFTER A COOLER FRIDAY...THE HEAT BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S
SATURDAY...AND 80S SEEM LIKELY ON SUNDAY. THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK
REMAINS A FAVORABLE ONE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
VFR THROUGH 07/12Z. CEILINGS 5-8K FEET WILL DECREASE FROM THE NW
THROUGH 07/00Z. PATCHY VSBYS 3-5SM IN SHALLOW RADIATION FOG WAS
CONSIDERED 07/08Z-12Z WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BUT
FEEL AIR IS TO DRY TO PRESENT ENOUGH THREAT TO INCLUDE IN
FORECASTS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
252 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE MAIN...IF NOT THE ONLY...FORECAST ISSUES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
ARE CLOUDS AND THE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY WAVE WILL BARELY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
THE W/SW LATE TONIGHT AS MODELS ARE SLOWER ON THAT APPROACH...AND
SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY NOT AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT MOISTURE LAYER AND CLOUD COVER IS CENTERED MOSTLY IN THE 800-
750MB RANGE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER CLOUDS SOUTHEAST. THE FINER TUNE
DETAIL SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM12 AND RAP KEEP THIS MOIST LAYER JUST
THICK ENOUGH TO RESIST ANY UNEXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WHICH COULD CAUSE
THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP QUICKLY...SO THEY SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL BEING
SCOURED/SHEARED OUT DURING THE DAY BY DRYING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH. THIS DRYING SURGE APPEARS TO WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY AS IT PUSHED
SOUTHEAST SO HAVE GONE SLOWER FAR SOUTHEAST ON THE DECREASE...AS
WELL AS FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THE DRY PUSH WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING
BLOW. THE DECREASE SHOULD PROCEED SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. BY THE WAY...THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE SEEN WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A DRYING SURGE FROM THE SOUTH KEEP FILLING IN AND PRETTY
MUCH ADDING AUTHORITY TO HOW THESE TWO MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM QUITE AS MUCH AS WE HAVE BEEN GOING FOR
DUE TO THE DELAYED CLEARING WITH HIGHS TODAY CLOSE TO 70...AT MOST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. CERTAINLY PLEASANT ENOUGH WITH THE FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS.
IN CONTRAST TO THE CLOUDIER PICTURE TODAY...TONIGHT SHOULD SEE FEWER
CLOUDS THAN WHAT WE WERE THINKING BEFORE WITH THE SLOWER APPROACH OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE
NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO 50 PLUS
ALONG THE MIGHTY MISSOURI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL TRY TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LIFT IS NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND FOCUS IS POINTED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. NEVERTHELESS...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERHAPS EVEN A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUILD SOUTHWEST ALONG AND ADVANCING FRONT LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF
HOLDS SECONDARY ELEVATED MOISTURE LAYER ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON
THURSDAY AND FOCUSES AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO EARLY EVENING. NEITHER NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA
OF ASCENT...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
AFTER A COOLER FRIDAY...THE HEAT BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S
SATURDAY...AND 80S SEEM LIKELY ON SUNDAY. THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK
REMAINS A FAVORABLE ONE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
331 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE HAVASU CITY ARIZONA WAS
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST...AND EXPECTED TO TAKE MORE OF A SOUTHEAST
TURN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW TO NEAR DOUGLAS ARIZONA BY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST THAN
AVAILABLE TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET WAS
ARCING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE AND
AN AREA OF LIFT EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD NEAR THE STATE LINE
OVERNIGHT. MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS AT LEAST BRING PRECIPITATION CLOSE
TO THE STATE LINE IF NOT SLIGHTLY EAST OF IT OVERNIGHT WHILE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE HRRR SOLUTION HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS EASTWARD EXTENT
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE OF THUNDER
ALONG WESTERN BORDER OVERNIGHT WHILE TRIMMING THE SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION A BIT FURTHER WEST.
A SECOND AREA OF LIFT IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ALSO
A BIT FURTHER WEST OF PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. DRY AIR TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WOULD BE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY PLUME TO ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BACKS...AND WOULD NOT BE A POSITIVE FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
SO WE HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHILE DECREASING THE FORECAST CHANCES AS
FAR WEST AS THE INTERSTATE 27 CORRIDOR. FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR THUNDER CHANCES AS
WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD OVERNIGHT...SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE...AND THIS WARMER START
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO A WARM DAY ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES
WITH LESS OPAQUE CLOUD COVER. TRENDED HIGHS WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. RMCQUEEN
.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED AROUND THE PROGRESSION OF THE
CLOSED AND CUTOFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WHAT
IMPACTS IT WILL HAVE ON WEST TEXAS MID-LATE WEEK. AS IS THE CASE FOR
CUTOFF SYSTEMS...FORECASTING IT/S EVENTUAL PATH IS ALWAYS A
DIFFICULT AND OFTEN HUMBLING PROSPECT. THAT SAID...THE LATEST NWP
CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR EAST WITH THE UPPER
LOW...DIGGING IT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THEN
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO /CENTERED WELL WEST OF EL PASO/ ON
THURSDAY BEFORE IT BEGINS RETROGRADING TOWARD THE BAJA LATE WEEK.
THIS TREND RESULTS IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAN HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. ATTM...IT STILL DOES APPEAR THE UPPER LOW WILL COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE/LIFT TO THE WESTERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...PERHAPS EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPROCK ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE MOIST
TROPOSPHERE /WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.20 INCHES/
EFFICIENT RAINERS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT TRACKS REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. DRIER
AIR AND WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DO CALL
INTO QUESTION HOW FAR EAST THE BETTER/HEAVIER RAIN CHANCES WILL
MAKE IT. IN FACT...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER TIGHT
RAINFALL GRADIENT LIKE WE SAW WITH THE PAST WEEKEND RAINS WHERE
THE WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES AND THE EASTERN MOST ZONES
MAY JUST SEE LIGHT AMOUNTS. PER THE TRENDS...WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID- TO
LATE-WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A HEAVY RAIN
MENTION ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING TO
MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS ADDED TO THE HWO. AS SPC HAS NOTED...IF
ENOUGH HEATING/INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO VISIT THE WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER
LOW BACKS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE PICTURE FROM THE NORTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH CRUISES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME HEATING MAY
RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY /ALONG WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION/ TO SPUR
ADDITION SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WEST TEXAS IS BENEATH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW
MOVING BACK OUT INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION. ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING WAVE WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY SEND A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE REGION NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD PROVIDE MINIMAL
COOLING.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...DECENT MOISTURE AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES WILL
TEND TO KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES SUPPRESSED THOUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY UP ON THE CAPROCK. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE BREEZES RETURN. IN FACT...THE LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS UP NEAR 90 DEGREES BY
SUNDAY. WE HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...BUT
NOT QUITE THAT WARM YET. THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBLE WEAK FRONT AND
MINOR COOLING MOVING IN AT SOME POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 56 69 53 67 / 40 60 70 60
TULIA 55 73 55 72 / 10 40 50 50
PLAINVIEW 56 75 56 73 / 10 30 60 60
LEVELLAND 55 75 56 71 / 20 50 80 70
LUBBOCK 58 77 57 73 / 10 30 60 60
DENVER CITY 55 73 57 69 / 40 60 80 70
BROWNFIELD 57 76 58 71 / 20 50 80 70
CHILDRESS 59 83 60 83 / 0 10 20 30
SPUR 58 83 60 78 / 0 10 30 50
ASPERMONT 58 87 63 84 / 0 10 20 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/23
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
845 PM PDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of light rain across Eastern Washington into the Idaho
Panhandle will be on the decrease tonight. Drying is expected
Thursday and Thursday night as high pressure builds back into the
region. The weather pattern turns more active going into the
weekend, with periodic rain and breezy conditions. The threat of
showers largely retreats to the mountains early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The warm front that brought widespread light rain
to the region has exited the area. However moist upslope flow into
the Central Panhandle Mountains, Blue Mountains, and Palouse
region will continue to result in additional areas of light rain
this evening. Meanwhile a moist boundary layer and upslope flow
into NE Washington and the Idaho Panhandle is resulting in areas
of drizzle. Models continue to show a trend towards drier
conditions through the night as boundary layer winds become light
and the lower level saturated air mass begins to become more
shallow. This should result in a decreasing trend in the drizzle
out there this evening. An abundance of mid and high clouds is
evident on satellite imagery steaming into the region. A
combination of lower level stratus in some areas and mid and high
clouds in other areas will result in another mild night. Forecast
lows have been adjusted based on current readings and high dew
points which will result in minimal temperature falls tonight.
Lows in the lower to mid 50s for most towns will end up being 7-15
degrees above normal for this time of year. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: Steady light rain over eastern WA/North Idaho will
diminish from west to east this evening. Abundant low level
moisture and weak upslope flow into the higher terrain is expected
to result in abundant stratus tonight including KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW.
Thursday morning boundary layer winds shift to the SE and the NAM
suggests stratus could threaten KMWH around 15z. SE winds will
also help bring drying in the boundary layer first at KPUW between
12-15z and then into KGEG/KSFF/KCOE around 18z with VFR conditions
expected for all TAF sites by Thursday afternoon. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 70 52 75 53 69 / 20 10 0 10 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 52 69 50 76 51 69 / 40 10 10 10 20 30
Pullman 52 73 52 80 50 71 / 50 10 0 10 20 20
Lewiston 53 77 54 85 53 77 / 50 10 0 10 10 20
Colville 50 68 47 72 48 69 / 30 10 10 10 30 40
Sandpoint 50 66 46 72 47 66 / 50 20 10 10 20 40
Kellogg 50 67 49 76 49 68 / 100 20 10 10 10 40
Moses Lake 52 74 50 78 53 73 / 10 10 0 10 20 20
Wenatchee 52 73 55 77 56 73 / 10 10 10 10 30 30
Omak 52 71 53 73 53 70 / 10 10 10 20 20 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
845 PM PDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of light rain across Eastern Washington into the Idaho
Panhandle will be on the decrease tonight. Drying is expected
Thursday and Thursday night as high pressure builds back into the
region. The weather pattern turns more active going into the
weekend, with periodic rain and breezy conditions. The threat of
showers largely retreats to the mountains early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The warm front that brought widespread light rain
to the region has exited the area. However moist upslope flow into
the Central Panhandle Mountains, Blue Mountains, and Palouse
region will continue to result in additional areas of light rain
this evening. Meanwhile a moist boundary layer and upslope flow
into NE Washington and the Idaho Panhandle is resulting in areas
of drizzle. Models continue to show a trend towards drier
conditions through the night as boundary layer winds become light
and the lower level saturated air mass begins to become more
shallow. This should result in a decreasing trend in the drizzle
out there this evening. An abundance of mid and high clouds is
evident on satellite imagery steaming into the region. A
combination of lower level stratus in some areas and mid and high
clouds in other areas will result in another mild night. Forecast
lows have been adjusted based on current readings and high dew
points which will result in minimal temperature falls tonight.
Lows in the lower to mid 50s for most towns will end up being 7-15
degrees above normal for this time of year. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: Steady light rain over eastern WA/North Idaho will
diminish from west to east this evening. Abundant low level
moisture and weak upslope flow into the higher terrain is expected
to result in abundant stratus tonight including KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW.
Thursday morning boundary layer winds shift to the SE and the NAM
suggests stratus could threaten KMWH around 15z. SE winds will
also help bring drying in the boundary layer first at KPUW between
12-15z and then into KGEG/KSFF/KCOE around 18z with VFR conditions
expected for all TAF sites by Thursday afternoon. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 70 52 75 53 69 / 20 10 0 10 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 52 69 50 76 51 69 / 40 10 10 10 20 30
Pullman 52 73 52 80 50 71 / 50 10 0 10 20 20
Lewiston 53 77 54 85 53 77 / 50 10 0 10 10 20
Colville 50 68 47 72 48 69 / 30 10 10 10 30 40
Sandpoint 50 66 46 72 47 66 / 50 20 10 10 20 40
Kellogg 50 67 49 76 49 68 / 100 20 10 10 10 40
Moses Lake 52 74 50 78 53 73 / 10 10 0 10 20 20
Wenatchee 52 73 55 77 56 73 / 10 10 10 10 30 30
Omak 52 71 53 73 53 70 / 10 10 10 20 20 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
555 PM PDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of light rain across Eastern Washington into the Idaho
Panhandle will be on the decrease tonight. Drying is expected
Thursday and Thursday night as high pressure builds back into the
region. The weather pattern turns more active going into the
weekend, with periodic rain and breezy conditions. The threat of
showers largely retreats to the mountains early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Early evening update: The POP forecast has been updated based on
current radar trends...as well as to tweak overnight lows across
NE Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. As of 530 pm a warm front
was bringing widespread light rain across the Idaho
Panhandle...with the back edge of the steady rain nearing the
Washington/Idaho border. Still some areas of light rain persisting
behind this band of steady rain over NE Washington and the palouse due
to moist upslope flow. The trend however will be for a decrease in
light rain through the evening for Eastern WA. Meanwhile over
Central Washington downslope westerly flow off the Cascades has
dried things out for Omak, Wenatchee, Moses Lake, and Ritzville.
The HRRR shows a continued drying trend from west to east into
this evening and thus have updated the POP`s for the remainder of
this evening.
Moist low level upslope flow into NE Washington into the Idaho
Panhandle tonight will result in quite a bit of stratus...which
will keep overnight lows mild. Temperatures for places like
Sandpoint, Coeur D`Alene, Kellogg, Spokane, and Colville are not
expected to drop much from current readings. Lows were adjusted
upward in a few spots. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: Steady light rain over eastern WA/North Idaho will
diminish from west to east this evening. Abundant low level
moisture and weak upslope flow into the higher terrain is expected
to result in abundant stratus tonight including KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW.
Thursday morning boundary layer winds shift to the SE and the NAM
suggests stratus could threaten KMWH around 15z. SE winds will
also help bring drying in the boundary layer first at KPUW between
12-15z and then into KGEG/KSFF/KCOE around 18z with VFR conditions
expected for all TAF sites by Thursday afternoon. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 50 70 52 75 53 69 / 60 10 0 10 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 52 69 50 76 51 69 / 100 10 10 10 20 30
Pullman 53 73 52 80 50 71 / 90 10 0 10 20 20
Lewiston 52 77 54 85 53 77 / 60 10 0 10 10 20
Colville 50 68 47 72 48 69 / 50 10 10 10 30 40
Sandpoint 50 66 46 72 47 66 / 100 20 10 10 20 40
Kellogg 50 67 49 76 49 68 / 100 20 10 10 10 40
Moses Lake 53 74 50 78 53 73 / 10 10 0 10 20 20
Wenatchee 54 73 55 77 56 73 / 10 10 10 10 30 30
Omak 53 71 53 73 53 70 / 20 10 10 20 20 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
609 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
TOOK A FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE STEP TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY SOUTH AND WEST OF LA CROSSE. CONSENSUS SIGNALS ARE
POINTING TO WISCONSIN...AND NORTH OF I-90 FOR RAIN.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE SEEN IN GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SCREAMING FOR THE GREAT LAKES. RADAR SHOWING STORMS
OVER ND...MORE THAN MANY OF THE HIGHER RES CAMS HAD FORECAST AT
19Z. LIGHTNING INTO ND-CANADA TOO AND REALLY AGREES WELL WITH
300-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PER RAP 07.18Z RUN. THIS ALL IN AN
SPC ANALYSIS OF 100-250 J/KG OF MUCAPE. NOT TO GIVE AWAY THE END
OF MY STORY...BUT THAT QG SIGNAL CARRIES THROUGH NRN WI...MAINLY
NORTH OF I-94 BY 12Z THURSDAY.
THE ND STORMS ALSO ARE FORMING IN AN AREA OF GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS.
SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL THERE AS WELL WITH 3-4 MB
FALLS AHEAD OF A N-S WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
TRENDS BOTH IN THE OBSERVATIONS AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CARRY THE FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH RAINFALL TRENDS
FOLLOWING SUIT. THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SIGNAL ALOFT...LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL POINT TOWARD A GOOD
SYNOPTICALLY FORCED RAIN/EMBEDDED TSRA WAVE THURSDAY ACROSS
WISCONSIN...BUT MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. FURTHER SOUTH...THE BEST
FORCING SEEMS TO BE COLD FRONTAL THETAE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS. HOWEVER...THAT IS THE LAYER THAT IS THE DRIEST WITH
RELATIVELY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE SURFACE TO 2 KM LAYER.
THUS...THERE ARE ISSUES WITH SATURATION. THE MID-LEVELS HAVE SOME
SATURATION AND THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY OF ABOUT 500 J/KG.
OVERALL...TIMING TRENDS REMAINED THE SAME WITH MAINLY MORNING RAIN
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED FORCING
AND CONSENSUS HI RES CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING LIMITED
RAIN COVERAGE WEST AND SOUTH OF LA CROSSE...THINKING AN ISOLATED
TO SCT LINE OF SHRA-TSRA IS THE BEST WE ARE GOING TO DO ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. THAT LINE WOULD AFFECT A GIVEN SPOT FOR AN HOUR. BEEN
WATCHING THE HRRR BOULDER VERSION AND IT REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THIS THU MORNING FORECAST.
THUS...HAVE BACKED THE RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 50 PERCENT SOUTH
OF ABOUT I-90...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT INCREASING NORTHWARD. HAVE
ALSO LOWERED THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THAT LOWER RAIN CHANCE AREA.
THE FRONT MAY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVATED WORKING INTO SW WI WHERE
A BIT OF INSTABILITY WILL GROW. SPC HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK...AND IT SEEMS REALLY MARGINAL PROVIDED THE FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT BY 3-4 PM /OF GRANT COUNTY/. FOR THE MOST PART...THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA HAS A SIMILAR FORECAST TO EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD
ADVECTION KICKS IN POST-FRONTALLY ON THURSDAY WITH BRISK
CONDITIONS...DRAWING A LOWER CLOUD DECK IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
THIS PERIOD IS MAINLY DRY WITH RIDGE BUILDING AND MAINLY WEAK
WAVES TRYING TO GENERATE WEATHER. THE EMPHASIS WAS REALLY ON
LOOKING FOR POSSIBLE DAYS FOR DRY FALL FIRE STARTS. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE WARM ADVECTIVE DAYS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HAVE
INCREASED THESE A BIT WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE
SATURDAY. THIS COULD HAPPEN SUNDAY AS WELL...AS A WARM PROD OF AIR
MOVES OFF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...A GREAT
FLOW FOR UNUSUALLY WARMTH. HAVE BUMPED HIGHS SUNDAY TO JUST BELOW
RECORD LEVELS WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...CLOSER TO THE HOT AIR.
A MODERATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY BUT THE VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT IS BATTLING THE DYNAMICS. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO A BIT COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP OUR EYES ON THIS ONE AS IT SEEMS IT COULD
PRODUCE SOME RAIN...EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL FORECAST CONSENSUS IS
DRY. BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A WIND PRODUCER WITH ANOTHER 20-30 MPH DAY.
AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...ALREADY DRY...WILL REALLY NEED RAIN AFTER
THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS PATH...THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB
LAYER AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF BOTH TAF
SITES. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS WILL BE THROUGH THE
AREA AS IT IS PULLED NORTH BY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT THERE
WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW OF CONVERGENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS
AXIS FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE 07.21Z HRRR AND 07.12Z HI-RES ARW AND
NMM SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AS THIS CONVERGENCE MOVES
ACROSS SO WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF A VCSH FOR LATE TONIGHT AT
BOTH SITES. ALL THE HI-RES MESO MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A
NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH WITH
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY STAYING TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. KLSE COULD BE JUST ON THE VERY SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THIS
BETTER FORCING SO WILL KEEP THE CATEGORICAL MENTION OF LIGHT
SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO
MISS KRST TO THE NORTHEAST SO HAVE PULLED BACK TO JUST MENTIONING
THE SHOWERS IN A TEMPO GROUP. ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH THE
SHOWERS WILL END WITH THE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. A GOOD MIXED LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
WIND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...A MVFR CLOUD DECK COULD FORM AND START
ADVANCING TOWARD THE AREA. THE HI-RES ARW AND NMM ALONG WITH THE
07.18Z NAM SUGGEST THIS COULD MOVE IN RIGHT AROUND 09.00Z SO WILL
LEAVE THIS FOR THE NEXT SET OF FORECASTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
431 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM DULUTH TO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING IN THIS REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED...CLOUD TRENDS AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION BEFORE EXITING EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE NIGHT.
THE MID-CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EXIT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. A NARROW BAND OF LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT...BUT POSE NO THREAT OF PRECIP. WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH COULD CREATE PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG IN THE
COLD SPOTS OVER N-C WI. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
PCPN TRENDS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND QPF AMOUNTS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
PCPN WILL DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE NW TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A 40-50 KT LLJ JET AND A COUPLED UPPER
JET DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
NORTHWEST WI. THIS FORCING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THURSDAY MORNING AND INTERACT WITH PWATS OF 1.00-1.33 INCHES AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (H8 LI`S OF 0 TO -2) TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A H8 WARM
FRONT WILL RESIDE... AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE
STRONGEST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY
AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH.
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE STORM TRACK DISPLACED WELL TO OUR NORTH...SO THIS
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE MOVG THROUGH NORTHERN WI
ON TUESDAY MAY BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE
THAT FAR OUT IS LOW. A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAINLY MID LEVEL BKN5000-7000 FT SWEEPING OVER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SLIDES OVER. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM DULUTH TO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING IN THIS REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED...CLOUD TRENDS AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION BEFORE EXITING EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE NIGHT.
THE MID-CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EXIT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. A NARROW BAND OF LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT...BUT POSE NO THREAT OF PRECIP. WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH COULD CREATE PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG IN THE
COLD SPOTS OVER N-C WI. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
PCPN TRENDS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND QPF AMOUNTS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
PCPN WILL DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE NW TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A 40-50 KT LLJ JET AND A COUPLED UPPER
JET DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
NORTHWEST WI. THIS FORCING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THURSDAY MORNING AND INTERACT WITH PWATS OF 1.00-1.33 INCHES AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (H8 LI`S OF 0 TO -2) TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A H8 WARM
FRONT WILL RESIDE... AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE
STRONGEST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY
AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH.
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE STORM TRACK DISPLACED WELL TO OUR NORTH...SO THIS
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE MOVG THROUGH NORTHERN WI
ON TUESDAY MAY BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE
THAT FAR OUT IS LOW. A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
BROKEN 5000-7000 FT CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY INTO LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT
FLYING WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
917 PM MST WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTH INTO MEXICO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LEAVING THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES UNDER A
DRIER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY PERIODIC
THICKER CLOUD COVER. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS TAPERED OFF WITH ONLY A
BATCH OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LEFT TO DRIFT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AND WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
WARMING TREND AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH LESS AFTERNOON
CLOUDINESS THAN WHAT WE HAD TODAY. HIGHS THURSDAY CLIMB TO NORMAL FOR
THE PHOENIX AREA...HIGHER FURTHER WEST...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WARMING
FRIDAY. IN FACT SOME SPOTS IN SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL BREAK THE 100 DEGREE MARK AGAIN. THERE WILL BE SOME
MINOR EASTERLY BREEZINESS THURSDAY AS WELL. MADE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO DECREASE POPS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR REMAINDER
OF EVENING...LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DROPPING THEM
ALTOGETHER OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 210 PM...
AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD CORE LOW
HAS TRANSLATED INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENVELOPING SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR
WESTERN ARIZONA. A COMPACT PV ANOMALY/VORTICITY CENTER IMMEDIATELY
UNDER THE COLD CORE (-15C AT H5) WAS FORCING WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT AROUND AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WERE SHIFTING EAST IN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY REMAINED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA.
NEVERTHELESS...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT ASCENT ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD CORE STILL EXISTED OVER MUCH OF GILA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL ROTATE ABOUT
THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING...AND IT IS
STILL CONCEIVABLY SOME SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
COULD ALSO SWING BACK WESTWARD TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS (I.E. HRRR AND WRF-NMM CORES) SUPPORT THIS IDEA
THOUGH AREAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE METRO...RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD CORE
LOW SINKING FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BECOMING DISASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERALL NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS...EAST PACIFIC RIDGING WILL FOLD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SUBSIDENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN A
REX-TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL STEADILY INCREASE WITH
H5 READINGS APPROACHING 590DM BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY CONDUCIVE TO DEEP MIXING AND
SEASONALLY EXCEPTIONAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS
(PHOENIX RECORD HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD ARE 100F-105F...AND FORECASTS
FALL NEARLY 10F BELOW THESE RECORDS). THUS...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH INTO AN ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY...MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING MAY
BE SOMEWHAT MUTED.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ALL THREE GLOBAL MODEL SUITES...AND MANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GEM ALL SLOWLY RETROGRADE THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS NW MEXICO BACK INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA.
EVENTUALLY...THE COLD COLD IS FORECAST TO SWING BACK NORTH TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH MORE SWLY TRAJECTORIES
ALOFT...AND MODELS WARM TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
RANGE. BEYOND TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE
RETURN TO A WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN AS THE UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE INLAND...HOWEVER SPREAD AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
GROWS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY YIELDING HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS OF 04Z WITH NORTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAS TAPERED OFF. THE LOW WILL SAG SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MAINTAINING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE
FAVORING NORTHEAST AND EAST DIRECTIONS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
ANTICIPATE LESS CUMULUS THURSDAY THAN WHAT WE HAD EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH
DAY WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY RETURNING INCREASED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICTS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/PERCHA
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/NOLTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1150 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
A surface high pressure ridge axis extending from Lake Superior
southward through eastern Illinois will continue to produce light
winds for much of the night. Low pressure currently over North
Dakota will push eastward into the upper Midwest
overnight...strengthening pressure gradients over central Illinois
and initiating light south-southwest winds by morning. With the
lightest winds lasting longest toward eastern and southeastern
Illinois...along with the deepest moisture remaining...areas from
around I-57 eastward will have the best potential for fog by
morning. Latest HRRR run is developing some areas of low
visibility consistent with this scenario...so no updates are
needed at this time as patchy fog is currently in the forecast.
Lows expected to reach the mid to upper 50s across central
Illinois.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
Temperatures rebounding nicely this afternoon, with most areas of
the CWA in the mid-upper 70s at 2 pm. Main area of clouds the last
few hours has been a blob of stratocumulus across Missouri, spilling
a bit over the Mississippi River, although this eastern flank is
taking on more of a diurnal look with time.
Main concern for the forecast tonight remains with any fog
redevelopment. The area of concern continues to shrink, as the ridge
axis shifts east overnight and winds start to pick up ahead of the
shortwave currently advancing across the Dakotas. Currently thinking
that areas along and east of I-57 would be most prone, as the winds
there will remain very light with the ridge axis not too far away.
Lower levels of the forecast soundings suggest the fog would be
shallower than recent nights. Will only mention patchy fog late
tonight at this point. Otherwise, skies generally should be partly
cloudy.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
Main forecast concern will be timing of precip into the area along a
cold front slated to push through central Illinois tomorrow night
into Friday morning. Most of the operational models now similar in
their timing of the cold front across the forecast area Thursday
night with one more warm day ahead of the boundary as afternoon
temperatures top out mostly in the lower 80s with a gusty south to
southwest wind. We may even see a few mid 80s across west central
IL if cloud cover holds off during the day. Models suggest some
weak instability and lapse rates just ahead of the cold front late
Thursday afternoon with NAM forecast soundings a bit more
aggressive in forecasting Mixed Layer Capes of around 1000 J/KG
in a rather narrow axis stretching from southeast Iowa through
extreme west central Illinois, before the instability wanes with
the loss of daytime heating just after 00z. 0-6km shear values of
around 30 kts forecast across west central IL late tomorrow
afternoon and evening, so some storm organization may occur just
ahead of the cold front, but with most of the models indicating
the boundary still well out to our west/northwest tomorrow
afternoon, it appears that may occur over far eastern Iowa into
northwest Illinois. We may see some isolated storms produce gusty
winds and small hail, but with the weaker lapse rates depicted on
the latest models, it appears the hail threat has diminished. The
highest POPs will occur across the far northwest late tomorrow
afternoon with 50-60 POPs depicted along the frontal boundary
further south and east into central IL tomorrow evening, where the
low level convergence will be maximized.
Lingering shower chances will slide into southeast Illinois Friday
morning and gradually work off to the east and south of our forecast
area by late in the day. Much cooler weather will invade central
IL for a few days before a rapid warm up pushes in Sunday ahead
of a fast moving cold front which now looks to be pusing into our
forecast area Monday morning. With the fast movement of the
boundary and the better dynamics well to our north, not much of an
opportunity for moisture to work its way back into our area ahead
of the early week frontal passage so will continue to keep the
forecast dry ahead of this feature. Another quick shot of cool air
will push in behind the front later Monday into Tuesday, but a
fast turn-around in temps expected Tuesday night into Wednesday
ahead of another quick moving shortwave and frontal boundary
slated to push through our area dry for Wednesday afternoon and
evening.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
VFR conditions expected through much of the next 24 hours. As a
high pressure axis over the region shifts eastward, light and
variable winds will become more south-southwest after 09Z and
increase to near 10 knots Thursday morning. Fog continues to look
most likely from around KCMI south and eastward, and have kept a
TEMPO MVFR group for KCMI 09-13Z. After 18Z thursday...a cold
front will approach the area from the northwest...bringing
increased southwest winds of 10-15 kts gusting to around 20
kts...as well as increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Have included VCTS with continued VFR conditions after 21Z for
KPIA-KBMI, and after 00Z at KSPI-KDEC-KCMI. Timing/location
uncertainties of potential MVFR conditions with thunderstorms
preclude mention in TAFs at this point.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Onton
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
330 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL THE BE THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL CROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 03Z SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COOL FRONT ALONG A PREFONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN IA AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. ALOFT...H850 ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER
IOWA WITH A NOSE OF +10C DEW POINTS LINED UP FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY FEEDING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
SFC WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. A WEAK LINE OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN ATTEMPTING TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE DRY OVER MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE
BETTER SATURATION OCCURS NEARER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT. MESO HRRR AND SYNOPTIC NAM/GFS
MODELS BOTH SUGGEST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PSBL ISO THUNDER
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IA MN BORDER BETWEEN 09-18Z THIS MORNING. FARTHER
SOUTH...LESSER CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE
BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL
OUTRUN THE DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE MILD
ONCE AGAIN AS H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE HIGHS NEAR THE
80 DEGREE MARK FROM SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH...IT WILL
FEEL COOLER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST BY 4 PM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND IN THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DECLINE AT AROUND HALF AN INCH PER
MONTH THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS LONG TERM FCST PERIOD IS REFLECTIVE OF
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP AS WE EFFECTIVELY HAVE ABOUT ZERO
PRECIP CHANCES FROM FRI THROUGH NEXT WED. FCST DETAILS FOCUS
PRIMARILY ON TEMPERATURE DETAILS.
FRIDAY...
AT 06Z THU...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PICKING UP MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT
ONSHORE TO BRITISH COLUMBIA ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. MEANWHILE...AN
UPPER LOW IS CHURNING WEST OF THE HUDSON BAY. AN ATTENDANT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PICKING UP THE BRITISH COLUMBIA MOISTURE
ALOFT AND WILL DRAG IT THROUGH IA AS THE TROUGH AXIS/UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY...RESULTING IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THESE CLOUDS...HAVE
DROPPED TEMPS ONE OR TWO DEGREES. NEAR THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH IOWA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR WEST ALL
DAY...CAA WILL BE TAKING PLACE WITH MODELS KEEPING 850 MB TEMPS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS WEEKEND...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PASSES EAST OF IOWA SATURDAY
MORNING...STRONG WAA WILL BE PUMPING INTO IOWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A DECENTLY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL COME CRASHING
TOWARDS IOWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS
WILL START AROUND 10C SAT AM...INCREASE TO 15C BY SAT PM...AND TO
19C BY SUN PM. MODELS KEYING ON UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER HIGH.
SUNDAY HOWEVER...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE. SO HAVE KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY AND INCREASED THEM A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE ROCKIES...BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BACK TO THE REGION. THIS WILL DROP MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 OR SO
DEGREES VERSUS SUNDAY/S HIGHS. LONG RANGE MODELS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/PASSAGE OF HIGH. EURO HAS HELD THE
LINE WHILE THE USUALLY SLOWER GEM HAS SPED UP...AND THE USUALLY
OVERLY-FAST GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF DMX
CWA BY TUE AFTERNOON...BRINGING BACK THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND
WAA TO IOWA. TEMPS TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR MONDAY AND WITH INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN CAA...HAVE STUCK WITH THE COOL DOWN...FOLLOWED BY A
5 OR SO DEGREE TEMP INCREASE FOR TUE. MAJOR DWPT DEPRESSIONS WILL
NIX ANY PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW...MORE OR LESS...IS HINTED AT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE UNTIL CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE
ENOUGH TO WHERE MODIFYING FCST WOULD ADD VALUE TO IT.
&&
.AVIATION...08/06Z
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
LITTLE CHANGE FROM 00Z THINKING WITH VFR CONDITIONS STILL ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT/BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
IOWA INTO THU DRIVEN BY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE
WAVES ALOFT. THE LATTER WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
IT...MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHEAST TAF SITES /KMCW/KALO/. THERE WILL
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...AND POSSIBLY OTHER CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE...BUT CHANCES ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1155 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW ACROSS SW US...WITH MEAN TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL WEAK CONVERGENT AREAS
LONG SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THIS AFTERNOON...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN
CLEARING AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO CU
FIELD/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. SB
CAPE VALUES 500-1000 J/KG ACCORDING TO RAP ANALYSIS SHOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE UPDRAFTS. WEAK SHEER AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL DESPITE
COOLER TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT. DUE TO THE MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST BL FLOW HELPING DRY OUT BOUNDARY
LAYER. I STILL COULDNT RULE OUT VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN REGIONS OF
PEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING/LIGHT WINDS...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. I DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING MENTION IN ZONES AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS DRIER BL CONDITIONS PERSISTING. STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARDS OUR CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA BY 00Z. INCREASING LIFT
AND INSTABILITY ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHERN
CWA. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS FROM THE WEST. THE PATH OF THE TROUGH HAS CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER THE LATEST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE
DECREASED THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...LEADING TO A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
DEVELOPING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR TWO ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL DURING THE NIGHT...OR ONE LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL. THE
FIRST ROUND WILL DEVELOP AS THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE LIFT
TO DEVELOP IN THE 800-700MB LAYER AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
DECLINE IN THAT LAYER.
BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND THE MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP.
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW STRONG LIFT CENTERED IN THE 500-400MB
LAYER...BUT ALSO EXTENDING OUTSIDE OF THIS LAYER FOR SOME PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SATURATED OR CLOSE TO
SATURATION AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR ZERO WITHIN THE
STRONG LIFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
RAINFALL SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE BAND OF LIFT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA DUE TO THE LIFT INCREASING. THE BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING WHEN
THE LIFT IS AT ITS PEAK.
BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF LIFT THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN PRIMARILY THE 400-500MB LAYER. THERE IS STILL SOME
WEAK LIFT OVERLAPPING THE FN VECTOR DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS...SO COULD FORESEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAINFALL
BEHIND THE MAIN BAND.
MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RAINFALL WILL EXIT THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT...HOWEVER THE AREA WILL BE DRY WELL BEFORE SUNRISE.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR SUNRISE WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 40S FOR THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE AREA.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SO DRY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE
COOLEST. SOME PARTS OF THE AREA WILL NEAR 90 DEGREES SUNDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TUESDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY WARM UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND
MCK. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BY 13-14Z AND THEN
NORTHEAST BY 17-18Z AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND IT. EXPECT SOME
GUSTINESS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 22Z-00Z THURSDAY EVENING AS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY T-STORMS OR SHOWERS AT THIS TIME
AS THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PREVAILING CONDITION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
437 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
LOCATED OVER THE SE CORNER OF SASKATCHEWAN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA FROM SE SASK THROUGH SRN MANITOBA INTO CNTRL AND NE ND. AT
THE SFC...SRLY WINDS HAD INCREASED OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO WRN MN
BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR AND A TROUGH AND
WARM FRONT FROM SRN SASK INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. VIS LOOP SHOWED
DIMINISHING SC AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE ERN CWA AS HIGH PRES
AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
SASK SHRTWV WERE ALREADY STREAMING THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN
UPPER MI.
THE MODELS REMAINED IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING/POSITION OF THE SHRTWV AND SFC LOW MOVING INTO UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WEST AFTER 06Z...CNTRL
AFT 10Z AND EAST BY 14Z. MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 200 J/KG AND
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES ALSO SUPPORT TSRA POTENTIAL OVER THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND PWAT TO AROUND
1.0 INCH...QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.4 TO 0.7 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH. WITH LINGERING DEEP
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHER POPS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY FOR
UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM W
TO E BTWN 15Z-21Z.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
BEGINNING FRI...800 MB TEMPS AROUND -1C COULD STILL SUPPORT SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LAKE SHOWERS EARLY FRI OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPR
MI FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY A NNW WIND FLOW. EXPECT THESE LAKE
SHOWERS TO END BY LATE MORNING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AS
THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD FRI EVENING AND THEN SLIDES EAST
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND 850
MB WARM ADVECTION IN WSW FLOW SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISING TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AS BOTH
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW 850MB TEMPS RISING NEAR 20C BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 900 MB OFF FCST SOUNDINGS WOULD EASILY
YIELD TEMPS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S ON SUNDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF. A FEW WRN LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR COULD
PUSH NEAR 80F IN DOWNSLOPING SW FLOW. ALSO MODELS INDICATE
SHORTWAVES STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...SO EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOC COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE PAC NW AND THEN MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AS NOTED
ON ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY SO WILL
INCLUDE CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS DESPITE FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE (PWATS
ONLY AROUND .6 INCH). MODELS HINT AT MORE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA FOR TUE INTO WED BUT WITH WEAKER LIFT FORECASTED AND STILL
LIMITED MOISTURE...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST.
TEMPS WILL DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
MONDAYS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TEMPS COULD EVEN FALL BLO NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AS MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO -2 TO -4C BY
EARLY TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
LOW PRES WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THRU THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH W TO E THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...
UPSLOPE WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE LOW WILL
HELP SOME LIGHT PCPN TO LINGER ACROSS NRN UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW SHOULD HOLD THRU THE NIGHT
BEFORE QUICKLY FALLING THRU MVFR TO IFR DURING THE MORNING HRS.
UPSLOPE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE CIGS TO FALL TO LIFR AT KIWD FOR A TIME
THIS AFTN AND AT KSAW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH NRN ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ERN ND AND FAR W MN THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE ACROSS W UPPER MI THURSDAY MORNING WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TO
NEARING 30KTS OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BEFORE EXITING
ACROSS N LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THURSDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE LOW
NRLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FRI AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SAT AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES OFF TO THESE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER CNTRL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1218 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
LOCATED OVER THE SE CORNER OF SASKATCHEWAN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA FROM SE SASK THROUGH SRN MANITOBA INTO CNTRL AND NE ND. AT
THE SFC...SRLY WINDS HAD INCREASED OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO WRN MN
BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR AND A TROUGH AND
WARM FRONT FROM SRN SASK INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. VIS LOOP SHOWED
DIMINISHING SC AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE ERN CWA AS HIGH PRES
AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
SASK SHRTWV WERE ALREADY STREAMING THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN
UPPER MI.
THE MODELS REMAINED IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING/POSITION OF THE SHRTWV AND SFC LOW MOVING INTO UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WEST AFTER 06Z...CNTRL
AFT 10Z AND EAST BY 14Z. MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 200 J/KG AND
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES ALSO SUPPORT TSRA POTENTIAL OVER THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND PWAT TO AROUND
1.0 INCH...QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.4 TO 0.7 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH. WITH LINGERING DEEP
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHER POPS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY FOR
UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM W
TO E BTWN 15Z-21Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF THE CWA THU NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO
NW FLOW ALOFT UNTIL A RIDGE MOVES OVER SUN AHEAD OF A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN NW FLOW THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THU NIGHT...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL RESULT
IN UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT REGIONS INTO FRI MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND 0C. A SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CUTTING OFF PRECIP BY LATE MORNING AND LAKE CLOUDS FROM W
TO E BY LATE FRI. WILL LINGER CLOUD COVER LONGER SINCE MODELS TEND
TO CLEAR SKIES TOO FAST IN THIS SCENARIO.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AHEAD AND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
THAT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPS SAT AND SUN. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM 0C AT 18Z FRI TO 20C BY
00Z MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS SUN. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF SW WINDS ON
SUN...FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A GREATER CONCERN GIVEN TEMPS 15F TO MAYBE
20F ABOVE NORMAL AND HOW LITTLE RAIN MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN OVER THE
LAST MONTH.
ALL MODEL HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER AND FARTHER S WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT AND MON.
MOST MODELS NOW HAVE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...SO WILL BE
INCREASING POPS. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH IN THE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT MODELS ONLY HAVE
SOME SCATTERED AND LIGHT QPF NEAR THE AREA. WILL LET MODEL CONSENSUS
POPULATE THE FORECAST FOR TUE AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
LOW PRES WILL TRACK E ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
THRU THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH W TO E THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...
UPSLOPE WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE LOW WILL
HELP SOME LIGHT PCPN TO LINGER ACROSS NRN UPPER MI. AS A RESULT...
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW SHOULD HOLD THRU THE NIGHT
BEFORE QUICKLY FALLING THRU MVFR TO IFR DURING THE MORNING HRS.
UPSLOPE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE CIGS TO FALL TO LIFR AT KIWD FOR A TIME
THIS AFTN AND AT KSAW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH NRN ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ERN ND AND FAR W MN THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE ACROSS W UPPER MI THURSDAY MORNING WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TO
NEARING 30KTS OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BEFORE EXITING
ACROSS N LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THURSDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE LOW
NRLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FRI AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SAT AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES OFF TO THESE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER CNTRL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
203 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH QUIET AND DRY WEATHER BEFORE A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE SEEING A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS CLEARED THE AREA
AND ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LIKEWISE EXITED/DISIPATED. LOW-LEVEL
CAA IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND IR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW SOME SCT STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH MORE
EXTENSION CLOUD COVER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD ACROSS
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT. CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION
LAYER NEAR 5 KFT...BUT RAP AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONTINUED DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THESE CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP...INCLUDING AT SLK THIS EVENING. MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG
WORDING OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NW GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO WILL BRING DIMINISHING WIND
LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...EXCEPT AREAS OF MID 30S ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
IN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DUE TO A
ROBUST FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
BEGINNING TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT TOMORROW
WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THAT ALL CHANGES GOING INTO THURSDAY LATE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES RAPIDLY ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
ONCE THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES INTO THE REGION
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.5-1" INCH RANGE SO NO HYDRO
CONCERNS WITH RIVERS RUNNING QUITE LOW. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID
50S DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO I DONT EXPECT ANY WHITE FLAKES
FALLING QUITE YET. FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT ANTICIPATE TEMPS
COOLING TO INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 203 AM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE REGIONAL
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
SEASONAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY REAL WEATHER MAKER
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONT ON TUESDAY WHEN SOLID CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE
OFFERED. A FAIRLY TIGHT SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SUCH THAT CONDITIONS WILL TREND
QUITE BREEZY BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL HEAVILY
GOVERN PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION WITH THE LARGER VALLEYS LIKELY
SEEING AT LEAST SOME SHADOWING EFFECTS. IN GENERAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH BRIEFLY WARMER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S). OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S
TO LOWER 40S, THOUGH AGAIN BRIEFLY MILDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
ON MONDAY NIGHT WHEN READINGS SHOULD HOLD SOLIDLY IN THE 40S TO
NEAR 50.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SCT/BKN CIGS FROM
050-070 AGL TREND SKC AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z UNDER LIGHT WINDS.
ONLY EXCEPTION AT KSLK WHERE IFR BR/FG WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH
12Z.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z
FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV.
DEVELOPING JET 3000 TO 4000 FEET AGL OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS MAY PRODUCE
SOME LLVL SHEAR/TURBULENCE NEAR THE MTNS ON FRIDAY. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN BY
00Z SATURDAY. VFR PREVAILS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
105 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH QUIET AND DRY WEATHER BEFORE A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE SEEING A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1035 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS CLEARED THE AREA
AND ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LIKEWISE EXITED/DISIPATED. LOW-LEVEL
CAA IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND IR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW SOME SCT STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH MORE
EXTENSION CLOUD COVER FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EWD ACROSS
N-CENTRAL INTO NERN VT. CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION
LAYER NEAR 5 KFT...BUT RAP AND NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONTINUED DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW THESE CLOUDS
TO DISSIPATE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP...INCLUDING AT SLK THIS EVENING. MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG
WORDING OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NW GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SERN ONTARIO WILL BRING DIMINISHING WIND
LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...EXCEPT AREAS OF MID 30S ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT/S NORTHEAST
KINGDOM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING
IN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DUE TO A
ROBUST FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
BEGINNING TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT TOMORROW
WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THAT ALL CHANGES GOING INTO THURSDAY LATE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS MOISTURE ALOFT INCREASES RAPIDLY ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
ONCE THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES INTO THE REGION
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.5-1" INCH RANGE SO NO HYDRO
CONCERNS WITH RIVERS RUNNING QUITE LOW. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID
50S DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO I DONT EXPECT ANY WHITE FLAKES
FALLING QUITE YET. FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT ANTICIPATE TEMPS
COOLING TO INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FCST WILL FEATURE A VERY
CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN WITH TEMPS STARTING BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND...WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN TWD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN IS VERY TYPICAL OF MID OCTOBER...WITH SYSTEMS EVERY COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON SATURDAY 1024 MB HIGH PRES WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WITH COOL NW SFC WINDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C SUPPORT
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S MTNS TOWNS TO MID 50S WARMER
VALLEYS. NOTE SUMMITS HOLD IN THE 30S WITH SOME RIME POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY MORNING FROM LEFTOVER MOISTURE. SFC HIGH PRES QUICKLY
SHIFTS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
BY 12Z SUNDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS QUICKLY WARM BACK BTWN 6-8C ON
SUNDAY AND BTWN 10-12C ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF SFC
BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY
TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 70F BY MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE TRICKY
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND SOME CLOUDS BUT THINKING
LOWS MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 50F. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH CHC ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS RIBBON OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE AND STRONG LLVL CAA ON BACK SIDE ASSOCIATED
WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF. WINDOW OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ONLY BE 3 TO 6 HOURS WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY < 0.50". TEMPS COOL
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDS...BEFORE ANOTHER DEEPER TROF AND
STRONG LLVL CAA DEVELOPS BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
HINTS AT THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SCT/BKN CIGS FROM
050-070 AGL TREND SKC AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z UNDER LIGHT WINDS.
ONLY EXCEPTION AT KSLK WHERE IFR BR/FG WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH
12Z.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES BY 12Z
FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SLK/MPV.
DEVELOPING JET 3000 TO 4000 FEET AGL OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS MAY PRODUCE
SOME LLVL SHEAR/TURBULENCE NEAR THE MTNS ON FRIDAY. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN BY
00Z SATURDAY. VFR PREVAILS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...JMG/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING... THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...
TODAY: PRETTY QUIET DAY WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS (WITH MINIMAL
VERTICAL EXTEND) AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH AN ACCELERATING
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. CURRENT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY STRATOCU IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DUE TO MOISTURE
POOLING AROUND 850 MB) AND CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY IN THE EAST. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE... A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH HEATING... LEAVING
LITTLE MORE THAN AFTERNOON CUMULUS (WITH LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT
GIVEN THE MID LEVEL STABILITY) AND THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME PATCHY LIGHT LATE AFTERNOON PRECIP IN
THE NRN PIEDMONT... BUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE SPARSITY
OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT... ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES... AND WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
FORECAST THICKNESSES OF 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL SUGGEST HIGHS ON PAR
WITH YESTERDAY`S... UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR SSE TONIGHT... AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE SW AT 2-5 KTS ALONG WITH IMPROVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT FOG. BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BE
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WITH
ACCELERATING MID LEVEL FLOW AND RISE IN WEAK DPVA. LOWS 57-61... A
BIT HIGHER THAN TEMPS THIS MORNING. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT EVERYONE IN CENTRAL NC WILL SEE
SOME RAIN BETWEEN MID-EVENING FRI AND MID-EVENING SAT. A BROAD
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM QUEBEC ACROSS MI TO NRN MO/KS EARLY IN
THE DAY AMPLIFIES AND STRENGTHENS WITH A NARROWING WAVELENGTH AS IT
HEADS ESE... CULMINATING IN A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
TN/GA/NC/SC SAT/SAT NIGHT... WHILE AT ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPS ESE THROUGH NC. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS
AND IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET
ACCELERATION SHOULD ALL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL FORCING FOR ASCENT ACTING
ON AN INCREASINGLY MOIST COLUMN (PW RISING TO > 1.5")... ANAFRONTAL
IN NATURE AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
LITTLE PRECIP IN THE CWA BEFORE SUNSET FRI... ALTHOUGH THE SREF AND
GEFS SUGGEST A LITTLE FASTER ARRIVAL... WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.
WILL BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES INTO THE NW CWA AFTER 3 PM... SPREADING
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INCREASING TO A MAXIMUM (LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL) DURING THE PERIOD FROM MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON SAT. THE ECMWF TAKES A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AS COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS... SO WITH A NOD TO THIS
SOLUTION... WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...
SPECIFICALLY THE SE CWA AS LIFT SHOULD BE BEST IN THE EAST WITH EVER-
INCREASING DPVA WITH EASTWARD TROUGH PROGRESSION... AND WITH THE
FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE SC COAST
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE INTO
CENTRAL/ERN NC. PRECIP SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERS... ALTHOUGH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING MAINLY IN THE EAST
SUPPORTS A NEED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE EAST. WITH THE
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON... TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB MINIMALLY EARLY BEFORE FALLING DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRI 80-83 WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS FRI NIGHT 59-
65 WITH RISING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SAT IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... LIKELY OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. ATTM
EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OF ABOUT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF OF THE
CAROLINA COAST BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL LINGER BEHIND OVER
THE STATE...THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME REMAINING PRECIPITATION IN THE
EAST. AS THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS AWAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BUT DISAGREE ON ITS LOCATION
WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE UPPER LOW BACK OVER LAND AND THE GFS
SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST. THIS MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON CLOUD COVER IN
THE EAST SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE COAST.
BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE UPPER TROUGH. AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IT DRIES OUT IN BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO OCCUR...BOTH THE
FRONT AND TROUGH ARE VERY PROGRESSIVE AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
PUSHES THESE FEATURES THROUGH VERY QUICKLY. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT THE MOST. ON THE HEELS OF THE
FRONT...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THINGS WILL START OUT A BIT
TRICKY AS A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM LEAVES THE AREA WILL DETERMINE
HOW LOW THE TEMPERATURES GO ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHWEST COULD
SEE SOME UPPER 40S WITH MID 50S TO THE SOUTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
50S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 AM THURSDAY...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS... BRINGING CALM TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD AT INT/GSO THROUGH 06Z FRI... WITH SCT-BKN
VFR CLOUDS AT 5-7 KFT LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MINIMAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT. BUT AT RWI/RDU AND PERHAPS FAY... CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT... WITH A PERIOD
OF LIFR CONDITIONS (MOSTLY FOG BUT STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE) BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT QUICKLY WITH HEATING
BY 14Z... AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
THROUGH 06Z FRI.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MID
EVENING FRI. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN AND LOWER TO MVFR FRI
NIGHT... AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR... LASTING THROUGH EARLY SAT
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS (BEST STORM CHANCE NEAR FAY). VFR
CONDITIONS THEN ARE LIKELY FROM LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
106 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH THE EARLY MORNING
FORECAST UPDATE.
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE OVERNIGHT...BURNING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
FOR THIS UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN PARTS OF THE WEST TO
CAPTURE THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...AND DECIDED TO INTRODUCE
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHWEST BASED ON LOWER CLOUDS FROM CANADA
ENCROACHING ON THE BORDER AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. OTHER THAN
THAT...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
MAIN CHANGES FOR UPDATE WERE TO TRIM BACK WESTERN EDGE OF POPS AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED OUT OF MUCH OF CWA.
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN MCINTOSH COUNTY. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS
AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG CAPE AND 50KTS 0-6KM SHEAR OVER THIS AREA BUT
ANY STORMS HAVE REMAINED WEAK AND NOT WELL ORGANIZED. ALSO MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS.
EXPECT REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MOVING
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE FOCUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A NARROW BAND ALONG THE FRONT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT IN A WEDGE THAT WILL LEAVE SOME CLOUDS IN
THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE LOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING IN COOL AIR STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ON THURSDAY COOL MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRFLOW OUT OF THE NORTH SHOULD
BRING STRATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES COOL
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE STATE. LOWERED HIGHS FROM MINOT TO
BISMARCK AND EAST A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS LOOK LIKE THE LOWER 50S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
BY THURSDAY EVENING A COOL SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE OVER THE
REGION...WITH CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. OVERNIGHT THE HIGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST...WITH COOLEST AIR AND LIGHTEST WINDS OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...AND WINDS IN THE WEST BECOMING SOUTHERLY WITH THE
HIGH TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER...WITH LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
AT UPPER LEVELS...A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND REMAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN SURFACE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
LARGE AREA OF WARM AND DRY AIR TO CONTINUE PUSHING INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. AFTER A COOL DAY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER...WITH WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOW TO
MID 80S SOUTH.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN...WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH AND IMPACT KMOT-KBIS-KJMS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
LATE THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1143 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
EXPANDED T MENTION FARTHER NORTH HOWEVER PCPN SHOULD BE EXITING
THE NE FA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. FARTHER SOUTH T WILL CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS YET. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WITH REMAINDER OF
FORECAST OK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND CLOUD TRENDS BUT OVERALL FORECAST ON
TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
PCPN BAND PROGRESSIVE AND MAIN CHANGES WERE TRIMMING POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FA THROUGH THE EVENING. THUNDER CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND WILL LIMIT T MENTION TO THIS AREA. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH AS MOST AREAS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
TIMING AND PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN CURRENTLY. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST ENTERING NORTHWESTERN ND. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY DOWN
TOWARDS CENTRAL ND...AND WITH SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED CAPE...A FEW
HAVE GROWN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER. RAIN HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
SLOW TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR AT THE SFC...BUT WEB CAMS
SHOW SOME LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN GETTING HEAVIER RETURNS HAVE
BEEN SATURATED. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT BEEN DOING TOO BADLY
WITH THE POPS SO FOLLOWED THEIR TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THINK
THAT THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THINK WE WILL DRY OUT BY
MORNING AS THIS FAIRLY FAST MOVING SYSTEM MOVES BY. LOWERED PRECIP
AMOUNTS JUST A BIT AS SOME OF THE FIRST RAIN HAS NOT REACHED THE
GROUND...BUT THINK THAT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE AROUND A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH.
TOMORROW...THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY OFF INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
IT. THERE HAS BEEN SOME GOOD RH VALUES AT 850MB SO THINK THAT
CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED THURSDAY.
BETWEEN CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN THE
50S...WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT RATHER RAW. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS COULD
AGAIN GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. HAVE COORDINATED WITH
NEIGHBORS A CONTINUATION OF FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AT LEAST...BUT HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HEADLINES FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO
UPPER RIDGING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SFC WILL PICK
UP AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMING UP FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
60S...BUT READINGS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SATURDAY AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 C.
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD GET NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK ON
SATURDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY TIME FRAME WITH POPS WILL BE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO THE THE EARLY MONDAY HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE AND FROPA
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THAT WAVE WILL BE NEAR
RECORD WARM TEMPS ON SUNDAY...UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH IDEAL
WESTERLY SFC WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 15 TO 20C RANGE. BEHIND
THE FROPA TEMPS WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID OCTOBER...LOW TO MID 60S FOR MAX TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE LOWER CIGS WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY OVER DVL. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE STEADILY WRAPS LOWER
CIGS AROUND LOW AS IT SHIFTS EAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SD BORDER
AREA BY SUNRISE. NOT SURE IF CIGS WILL GET THAT FAR SOUTH BUT DID
MENTION A GRADUALLY LOWERING OF CIGS INTO MVFR RANGE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY OUT LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR HOPEFULLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
304 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
AS THE FRONT FINISHES MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE AREA NEXT FEW
HOURS...IT IS STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE LINGERING INSTABILITY...AND WITH A FEW
NARROW BANDS OF MID CLOUDS/POSSIBLY ACCAS MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN/MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE HRRR KEEPS
TRYING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKE
ISOLATED IF ANYTHING. THIS SHOULD ALL BE OUT BY 12Z/7 AM CDT.
THE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
COULD STILL BRING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...AND
THIS COULD INCLUDE THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR AREA DURING THE
DAY...SO HAVE LEFT THE SMALL POPS IN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CASE FOR
GOING WITH JUST SPRINKLES. THE CLOUD DECK OF COURSE WILL REACH
SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEFORE DECENT
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH THE BREEZY CATEGORY TODAY WITH WINDS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER THAN WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...OR NOT TOO MUCH
WARMING FROM THE VERY MILD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
THE CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOW 40S SOUTH...AGAIN HOLDING
ABOVE FROSTY LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO
SURPASS SEASONAL NORMAL BY 10 OR MORE DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...WITH
VERY BALMY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONLY REASONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE REGION. A
SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM GOM MOISTURE...IT WILL HAVE TO RELY SOLELY ON
MOISTURE IT CAN DRAG ACROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
FOR NOW...PREFER THE DRIER GFS OVER THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS DO
SUGGEST VERY LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SD
INTO CENTRAL MN INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIKELY THE BIG STORY FOR
MONDAY WILL BE VERY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED
WINDS PUSH 20-30 MPH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...OCCASIONAL
GUSTS COULD PUSH 40 TO 45 MPH AS WE QUICKLY MIX OUT MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS IN THAT PORTION OF THE FCST.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK...A CONTINUED WARM PATTERN
WILL PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14 OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE
THURSDAY MORNING GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AT TIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
915 PM PDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END FROM THE SOUTH AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING. THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT MILD AND DRY...BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FRONTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THE WARM FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY HAS LIFTED INTO THE NORTH INTERIOR AND WILL MOVE
OFF INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS EVENING. WHILE RAIN IS GRADUALLY
COMING TO AN END TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS REMAINS
QUITE HUMID. SO IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH AREAS OF FOG THURSDAY MORNING.
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OHO...LOCATED NEAR 30N 145W THIS
EVENING...IS LIFTING NNE AND WILL BECOME POST TROPICAL OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
DEEP EXTRATROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES INTO HAIDA GWAII AND THE
ALASKAN PANHANDLE. COOL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW
WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON AND POSSIBLY SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE REMAINS OF OHO APPEAR THAT THEY WILL PASS
FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL ONLY CLIP THE COASTAL WATERS.
A WETTER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING
RAIN AND SOME LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO RAISE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY AND TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO LOWERED A COUPLE
OF DEGREES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALBRECHT
.LONG TERM...LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS -BOTH GFS AND ECMWF- SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BETWEEN
SYSTEMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR WET
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY IS LIKELY TOO PESSIMISTIC. 00Z EXTENDED MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT YET ARRIVED...SO WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT
BEFORE MAKING CHANGES TO THE SUNDAY FORECAST. ANOTHER FRONT...THE
LAST IN THE UPCOMING SERIES...WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR DRY WEATHER TUESDAY
ONWARD. ALBRECHT
&&
.AVIATION...FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WITH WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AMS MOIST AND STABLE.
WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED IN MANY PLACES TO
6000 TO 12000 FEET. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE ALREADY FORMED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND NEAR THE STRAIT. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WITH IFR OR LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT
LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KSEA...JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 50S AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVEL SO EXPECT FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS TO 10Z-13Z WITH CEILINGS 200 FEET OR LESS AND
VISIBILITIES 1/2SM OR LESS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER 17Z THURSDAY
MORNING WITH JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS. FELTON
&&
.MARINE...THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
OHO. GUIDANCE STILL TRACKS THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD WELL OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUES
FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WITH THIS SYSTEM. SWELLS SHOULD KICK UP
AS WELL TO PERHAPS 15 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWING ONSHORE LATER SATURDAY
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM ARRIVE MONDAY. FELTON/BUEHNER
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
845 PM PDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of light rain across Eastern Washington into the Idaho
Panhandle will be on the decrease tonight. Drying is expected
Thursday and Thursday night as high pressure builds back into the
region. The weather pattern turns more active going into the
weekend, with periodic rain and breezy conditions. The threat of
showers largely retreats to the mountains early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The warm front that brought widespread light rain
to the region has exited the area. However moist upslope flow into
the Central Panhandle Mountains, Blue Mountains, and Palouse
region will continue to result in additional areas of light rain
this evening. Meanwhile a moist boundary layer and upslope flow
into NE Washington and the Idaho Panhandle is resulting in areas
of drizzle. Models continue to show a trend towards drier
conditions through the night as boundary layer winds become light
and the lower level saturated air mass begins to become more
shallow. This should result in a decreasing trend in the drizzle
out there this evening. An abundance of mid and high clouds is
evident on satellite imagery steaming into the region. A
combination of lower level stratus in some areas and mid and high
clouds in other areas will result in another mild night. Forecast
lows have been adjusted based on current readings and high dew
points which will result in minimal temperature falls tonight.
Lows in the lower to mid 50s for most towns will end up being 7-15
degrees above normal for this time of year. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: Steady light rain over eastern WA/North Idaho will
diminish from west to east this evening. Abundant low level
moisture and weak upslope flow into the higher terrain is expected
to result in abundant stratus tonight including KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW.
Thursday morning boundary layer winds shift to the SE and the NAM
suggests stratus could threaten KMWH around 15z. SE winds will
also help bring drying in the boundary layer first at KPUW between
12-15z and then into KGEG/KSFF/KCOE around 18z with VFR conditions
expected for all TAF sites by Thursday afternoon. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 70 52 75 53 69 / 20 10 0 10 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 52 69 50 76 51 69 / 40 10 10 10 20 30
Pullman 52 73 52 80 50 71 / 50 10 0 10 20 20
Lewiston 53 77 54 85 53 77 / 50 10 0 10 10 20
Colville 50 68 47 72 48 69 / 30 10 10 10 30 40
Sandpoint 50 66 46 72 47 66 / 50 20 10 10 20 40
Kellogg 50 67 49 76 49 68 / 100 20 10 10 10 40
Moses Lake 52 74 50 78 53 73 / 10 10 0 10 20 20
Wenatchee 52 73 55 77 56 73 / 10 10 10 10 30 30
Omak 52 71 53 73 53 70 / 10 10 10 20 20 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
845 PM PDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of light rain across Eastern Washington into the Idaho
Panhandle will be on the decrease tonight. Drying is expected
Thursday and Thursday night as high pressure builds back into the
region. The weather pattern turns more active going into the
weekend, with periodic rain and breezy conditions. The threat of
showers largely retreats to the mountains early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The warm front that brought widespread light rain
to the region has exited the area. However moist upslope flow into
the Central Panhandle Mountains, Blue Mountains, and Palouse
region will continue to result in additional areas of light rain
this evening. Meanwhile a moist boundary layer and upslope flow
into NE Washington and the Idaho Panhandle is resulting in areas
of drizzle. Models continue to show a trend towards drier
conditions through the night as boundary layer winds become light
and the lower level saturated air mass begins to become more
shallow. This should result in a decreasing trend in the drizzle
out there this evening. An abundance of mid and high clouds is
evident on satellite imagery steaming into the region. A
combination of lower level stratus in some areas and mid and high
clouds in other areas will result in another mild night. Forecast
lows have been adjusted based on current readings and high dew
points which will result in minimal temperature falls tonight.
Lows in the lower to mid 50s for most towns will end up being 7-15
degrees above normal for this time of year. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: Steady light rain over eastern WA/North Idaho will
diminish from west to east this evening. Abundant low level
moisture and weak upslope flow into the higher terrain is expected
to result in abundant stratus tonight including KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW.
Thursday morning boundary layer winds shift to the SE and the NAM
suggests stratus could threaten KMWH around 15z. SE winds will
also help bring drying in the boundary layer first at KPUW between
12-15z and then into KGEG/KSFF/KCOE around 18z with VFR conditions
expected for all TAF sites by Thursday afternoon. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 70 52 75 53 69 / 20 10 0 10 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 52 69 50 76 51 69 / 40 10 10 10 20 30
Pullman 52 73 52 80 50 71 / 50 10 0 10 20 20
Lewiston 53 77 54 85 53 77 / 50 10 0 10 10 20
Colville 50 68 47 72 48 69 / 30 10 10 10 30 40
Sandpoint 50 66 46 72 47 66 / 50 20 10 10 20 40
Kellogg 50 67 49 76 49 68 / 100 20 10 10 10 40
Moses Lake 52 74 50 78 53 73 / 10 10 0 10 20 20
Wenatchee 52 73 55 77 56 73 / 10 10 10 10 30 30
Omak 52 71 53 73 53 70 / 10 10 10 20 20 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
845 PM PDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of light rain across Eastern Washington into the Idaho
Panhandle will be on the decrease tonight. Drying is expected
Thursday and Thursday night as high pressure builds back into the
region. The weather pattern turns more active going into the
weekend, with periodic rain and breezy conditions. The threat of
showers largely retreats to the mountains early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The warm front that brought widespread light rain
to the region has exited the area. However moist upslope flow into
the Central Panhandle Mountains, Blue Mountains, and Palouse
region will continue to result in additional areas of light rain
this evening. Meanwhile a moist boundary layer and upslope flow
into NE Washington and the Idaho Panhandle is resulting in areas
of drizzle. Models continue to show a trend towards drier
conditions through the night as boundary layer winds become light
and the lower level saturated air mass begins to become more
shallow. This should result in a decreasing trend in the drizzle
out there this evening. An abundance of mid and high clouds is
evident on satellite imagery steaming into the region. A
combination of lower level stratus in some areas and mid and high
clouds in other areas will result in another mild night. Forecast
lows have been adjusted based on current readings and high dew
points which will result in minimal temperature falls tonight.
Lows in the lower to mid 50s for most towns will end up being 7-15
degrees above normal for this time of year. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: Steady light rain over eastern WA/North Idaho will
diminish from west to east this evening. Abundant low level
moisture and weak upslope flow into the higher terrain is expected
to result in abundant stratus tonight including KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW.
Thursday morning boundary layer winds shift to the SE and the NAM
suggests stratus could threaten KMWH around 15z. SE winds will
also help bring drying in the boundary layer first at KPUW between
12-15z and then into KGEG/KSFF/KCOE around 18z with VFR conditions
expected for all TAF sites by Thursday afternoon. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 70 52 75 53 69 / 20 10 0 10 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 52 69 50 76 51 69 / 40 10 10 10 20 30
Pullman 52 73 52 80 50 71 / 50 10 0 10 20 20
Lewiston 53 77 54 85 53 77 / 50 10 0 10 10 20
Colville 50 68 47 72 48 69 / 30 10 10 10 30 40
Sandpoint 50 66 46 72 47 66 / 50 20 10 10 20 40
Kellogg 50 67 49 76 49 68 / 100 20 10 10 10 40
Moses Lake 52 74 50 78 53 73 / 10 10 0 10 20 20
Wenatchee 52 73 55 77 56 73 / 10 10 10 10 30 30
Omak 52 71 53 73 53 70 / 10 10 10 20 20 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
845 PM PDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of light rain across Eastern Washington into the Idaho
Panhandle will be on the decrease tonight. Drying is expected
Thursday and Thursday night as high pressure builds back into the
region. The weather pattern turns more active going into the
weekend, with periodic rain and breezy conditions. The threat of
showers largely retreats to the mountains early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: The warm front that brought widespread light rain
to the region has exited the area. However moist upslope flow into
the Central Panhandle Mountains, Blue Mountains, and Palouse
region will continue to result in additional areas of light rain
this evening. Meanwhile a moist boundary layer and upslope flow
into NE Washington and the Idaho Panhandle is resulting in areas
of drizzle. Models continue to show a trend towards drier
conditions through the night as boundary layer winds become light
and the lower level saturated air mass begins to become more
shallow. This should result in a decreasing trend in the drizzle
out there this evening. An abundance of mid and high clouds is
evident on satellite imagery steaming into the region. A
combination of lower level stratus in some areas and mid and high
clouds in other areas will result in another mild night. Forecast
lows have been adjusted based on current readings and high dew
points which will result in minimal temperature falls tonight.
Lows in the lower to mid 50s for most towns will end up being 7-15
degrees above normal for this time of year. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: Steady light rain over eastern WA/North Idaho will
diminish from west to east this evening. Abundant low level
moisture and weak upslope flow into the higher terrain is expected
to result in abundant stratus tonight including KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW.
Thursday morning boundary layer winds shift to the SE and the NAM
suggests stratus could threaten KMWH around 15z. SE winds will
also help bring drying in the boundary layer first at KPUW between
12-15z and then into KGEG/KSFF/KCOE around 18z with VFR conditions
expected for all TAF sites by Thursday afternoon. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 52 70 52 75 53 69 / 20 10 0 10 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 52 69 50 76 51 69 / 40 10 10 10 20 30
Pullman 52 73 52 80 50 71 / 50 10 0 10 20 20
Lewiston 53 77 54 85 53 77 / 50 10 0 10 10 20
Colville 50 68 47 72 48 69 / 30 10 10 10 30 40
Sandpoint 50 66 46 72 47 66 / 50 20 10 10 20 40
Kellogg 50 67 49 76 49 68 / 100 20 10 10 10 40
Moses Lake 52 74 50 78 53 73 / 10 10 0 10 20 20
Wenatchee 52 73 55 77 56 73 / 10 10 10 10 30 30
Omak 52 71 53 73 53 70 / 10 10 10 20 20 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
555 PM PDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of light rain across Eastern Washington into the Idaho
Panhandle will be on the decrease tonight. Drying is expected
Thursday and Thursday night as high pressure builds back into the
region. The weather pattern turns more active going into the
weekend, with periodic rain and breezy conditions. The threat of
showers largely retreats to the mountains early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Early evening update: The POP forecast has been updated based on
current radar trends...as well as to tweak overnight lows across
NE Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. As of 530 pm a warm front
was bringing widespread light rain across the Idaho
Panhandle...with the back edge of the steady rain nearing the
Washington/Idaho border. Still some areas of light rain persisting
behind this band of steady rain over NE Washington and the palouse due
to moist upslope flow. The trend however will be for a decrease in
light rain through the evening for Eastern WA. Meanwhile over
Central Washington downslope westerly flow off the Cascades has
dried things out for Omak, Wenatchee, Moses Lake, and Ritzville.
The HRRR shows a continued drying trend from west to east into
this evening and thus have updated the POP`s for the remainder of
this evening.
Moist low level upslope flow into NE Washington into the Idaho
Panhandle tonight will result in quite a bit of stratus...which
will keep overnight lows mild. Temperatures for places like
Sandpoint, Coeur D`Alene, Kellogg, Spokane, and Colville are not
expected to drop much from current readings. Lows were adjusted
upward in a few spots. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: Steady light rain over eastern WA/North Idaho will
diminish from west to east this evening. Abundant low level
moisture and weak upslope flow into the higher terrain is expected
to result in abundant stratus tonight including KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW.
Thursday morning boundary layer winds shift to the SE and the NAM
suggests stratus could threaten KMWH around 15z. SE winds will
also help bring drying in the boundary layer first at KPUW between
12-15z and then into KGEG/KSFF/KCOE around 18z with VFR conditions
expected for all TAF sites by Thursday afternoon. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 50 70 52 75 53 69 / 60 10 0 10 20 20
Coeur d`Alene 52 69 50 76 51 69 / 100 10 10 10 20 30
Pullman 53 73 52 80 50 71 / 90 10 0 10 20 20
Lewiston 52 77 54 85 53 77 / 60 10 0 10 10 20
Colville 50 68 47 72 48 69 / 50 10 10 10 30 40
Sandpoint 50 66 46 72 47 66 / 100 20 10 10 20 40
Kellogg 50 67 49 76 49 68 / 100 20 10 10 10 40
Moses Lake 53 74 50 78 53 73 / 10 10 0 10 20 20
Wenatchee 54 73 55 77 56 73 / 10 10 10 10 30 30
Omak 53 71 53 73 53 70 / 20 10 10 20 20 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
358 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TODAY...
TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER...MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS EAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER
LAYERED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT PRODUCING
A BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS NORTHWEST WI INTO EAST CENTRAL
MN. THIS BAND MOVING EAST AS WELL. WV IMAGERY SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW/FORCING/LIFT MOVING EAST NEAR THE MN/ONT
BORDER. INCREASING CLOUDS/SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW/COLD
FRONT KEEPING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH EARLY
MORNING TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THE MILD SIDE FOR
EARLY OCT.
MODEL RUNS OF 08.00Z HAVE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. MODELS OFFER A
TIGHT CONSENSUS OF SOLUTIONS TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/ENERGY DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY THEN AS THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. TREND FAVORS FURTHER NORTH OF EARLIER MODELS WITH
THE ENERGY TO CROSS LK SUPERIOR TODAY AND A COMPROMISE OF EARLIER
RUNS ON THE TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THIS CYCLE...THOUGH THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME TODAY IS SHIFTED FROM
WHAT WAS EXPECTED 24 HRS AGO.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER SOUTHERN BC/ALB AROUND
07.06Z HAS MAINTAINED A MORE NORTHERN TRACK SINCE CROSSING THE
ROCKIES. MAIN FORCING/LIFT...FROM 925-700MB WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND THETA-E CONVERGENCE TO 500-300MB QG CONVERGENCE AND PV ADVECTION
PASSES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF WI MAINLY THIS MORNING. AS PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED...MAIN FORCING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
FCST AREA IS SFC-700MB QG/FN/ THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND SOME WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SFC-700MB LAPSE RATES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STEEPEN THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 500-750 J/KG MUCAPE. HOWEVER TIGHT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS THE FRONT/FORCING/INSTABILITY EXITING SOUTH/EAST OF
THE FCST AREA BY 22Z...ABOUT THE TIME SOME CAPPING NEAR/JUST ABOVE
850MB WOULD BE OVERCOME. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGHEST SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 09-15Z THIS
MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF THE DEEPER LAYERED FORCING. 20-50 PERCENT
CHANCES TIED TO PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ELSEWHERE LOOK GOOD WITH
SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RAIN CHANCE GRIDS THIS AFTERNOON.
MDT TO STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOOKING TO BE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY SHRA/TSRA WOULD MOVE THRU...
WITH STEADY/SLOWLY FALL TEMPS FOR THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. POST
SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONTAL NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW SPREADS THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATO-CU CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. 925MB TEMPS FALL
TO THE +5C TO +7C RANGE BY 12Z FRI FOR WHAT WOULD BE A CHILLY NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THE CLOUD BLANKET AND TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT FOR NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THRU THE NIGHT LOOKING TO
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. EVEN
WITH THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT...LOWS LOOKING TO BE ABOVE
THE NORMALS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
FOR FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES...WINDS ON SATURDAY.
08.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR RISING HGTS ACROSS THE REGION
THRU THIS PERIOD AS THE OVERALL NOAM FLOW PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE.
SOME SIGNAL FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO COME ACROSS WA/ID/MT THRU
THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGING THU NIGHT. IMPROVING CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS
FOR THIS ENERGY TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS FRI/FRI NIGHT...
WELL WEST OF THE FCST AREA. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT NIGHT...WHICH
WILL PLAY INTO MONDAY FCST. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND A
RATHER QUIET WEATHER PERIOD...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE FRI-SAT NIGHT
PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
RISING HGTS/SFC HIGH PRESSURE/LOW LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BUILDING
IN FRI SHOULD CLEAR THE THU NIGHT STRATUS CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA FRI
MORNING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. A
COOLER DAY FRI WITH 925MB TEMPS ONLY IN THE 8C TO 10C RANGE AT 00Z
SAT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE DURING THE EVENING. QUESTION THEN BECOMES
WILL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS RE-COUPLE AFTER 06Z AS THE HIGH SLIPS AWAY
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO INCREASE. INCREASING 925-850MB
WARM ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL THRU FRI NIGHT. TEMPS
LOOKING TO DIP RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...THEN BECOME
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF SFC WINDS RE-
COUPLE. DID ADD PATCHY FROST TO LOW LAYING AREAS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF
I-94 WHERE WINDS LIKELY TO STAY DECOUPLED THE LONGEST. HIGH
CONTINUES MOVING AWAY SAT WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
IT AND LOW PRESSURE IN CAN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. 925MB WINDS IN
THE 30-35KT RANGE SAT AFTERNOON WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DIURNAL MIXING TO AROUND 900MB. SAT AFTERNOON TO BE BREEZY/WINDY AND
CONTINUED TREND OF SOME 25-30MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE FCST GRIDS.
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MIXING SAT...WITH A STRONG DIURNAL TEMP
RISE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FLOW. AFTER A COOL
START...HIGHS SAT LOOKING TO BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S TO
AROUND 70. GRADIENT OVER THE RELAXES A BIT FOR SAT NIGHT BUT STILL
ENOUGH FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXED. WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...SAT NIGHT LOWS
TRENDING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE
HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI AND FRI/SAT NIGHTS. TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS SAT.
FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD...WINDS
SUN/MON...RAIN CHANCES WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 08.00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN...PUSHING
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE REGION. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BUT OVER ALL IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR THIS TROUGH TO DIG INTO MN SUN
NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MON. GENERAL TREND IS
STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY. DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUE THEN
BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST TROUGHING FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NOAM FOR
WED. WITH REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT THRU WED...THE DAY 4-7 FCST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.
WARMEST OF THE 925-850MB AIRMASS IS OVER THE AREA ON SUN...AHEAD OF
THE SFC-500MB TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NAEFS
850MB MEAN TEMP PROGGED TO BE 1.5 TO 2.5 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
SUN AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 925MB WIND FIELD AGAIN SUPPORTS
A BREEZING/WINDY DAY WITH GUSTS 25-30MPH FOR GOOD DIURNAL MIXING.
SUNDAY LOOKING TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS JUST BELOW THE
RECORDS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. PASSING LOW/TROUGH SUN
NIGHT/MON TO SEND A ROUND OF STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT AFTER SUNDAY...ONLY DROPS TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL.
DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO WORK
WITH...WITH ECMWF MORE ROBUST ON THE 925-700MB MOISTURE/SATURATION.
ECMWF PRODUCES SOME RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA
MON...VS. GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS MOISTURE-STARVED AND DRY.
LEFT MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS RAIN CHANCES IN MON GRIDS FOR NOW.
EITHER WAY...MON TRENDING TO BE ANOTHER BREEZY/WINDY DAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS. BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS SYSTEMS MOVING NEXT
WEEK...WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BACK IN THE REGION ON TUE THEN
COLD ADVECTION AGAIN WED AS LOWS/TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CAN.
DID TREND TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS SUN...OTHERWISE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS THRU THE PERIOD LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS AND
WAS JUST ENTERING INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING. THE
08.00Z NAM INDICATES VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE WAVE AND BEST DYNAMICS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS
BY TO THE NORTH OF BOTH TAF SITES. THE NEW NAM AND THE RUNS OF THE
HRRR THROUGH THE EVENING HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF KEEPING THE
SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE KRST COULD
GET MISSED COMPLETELY BY THE RAIN SO HAVE DROPPED BACK TO JUST A
VCSH THERE. THE HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT KLSE COULD GET
CLIPPED BY PASSING SHOWER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE NAM WOULD
KEEP IT DRY. DECIDED TO TAKE OUT THE CATEGORICAL RAIN FOR KLSE AND
JUST COVER THE SMALL RAIN CHANCE WITH A TEMPO GROUP. STILL EXPECTING
SOME GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE NEW NAM HAS ALSO
CONTINUED THE TREND OF BRINGING IN A MVFR CLOUD DECK IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE FIELD AND HAVE BROUGHT THIS IN FOR THURSDAY EVENING
AT BOTH SITES. THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS MIXED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SO EXPECTING THE GUSTS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS
WELL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1149 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
TOOK A FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE STEP TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY SOUTH AND WEST OF LA CROSSE. CONSENSUS SIGNALS ARE
POINTING TO WISCONSIN...AND NORTH OF I-90 FOR RAIN.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE SEEN IN GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SCREAMING FOR THE GREAT LAKES. RADAR SHOWING STORMS
OVER ND...MORE THAN MANY OF THE HIGHER RES CAMS HAD FORECAST AT
19Z. LIGHTNING INTO ND-CANADA TOO AND REALLY AGREES WELL WITH
300-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PER RAP 07.18Z RUN. THIS ALL IN AN
SPC ANALYSIS OF 100-250 J/KG OF MUCAPE. NOT TO GIVE AWAY THE END
OF MY STORY...BUT THAT QG SIGNAL CARRIES THROUGH NRN WI...MAINLY
NORTH OF I-94 BY 12Z THURSDAY.
THE ND STORMS ALSO ARE FORMING IN AN AREA OF GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS.
SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL THERE AS WELL WITH 3-4 MB
FALLS AHEAD OF A N-S WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
TRENDS BOTH IN THE OBSERVATIONS AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CARRY THE FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH RAINFALL TRENDS
FOLLOWING SUIT. THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SIGNAL ALOFT...LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL POINT TOWARD A GOOD
SYNOPTICALLY FORCED RAIN/EMBEDDED TSRA WAVE THURSDAY ACROSS
WISCONSIN...BUT MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. FURTHER SOUTH...THE BEST
FORCING SEEMS TO BE COLD FRONTAL THETAE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS. HOWEVER...THAT IS THE LAYER THAT IS THE DRIEST WITH
RELATIVELY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE SURFACE TO 2 KM LAYER.
THUS...THERE ARE ISSUES WITH SATURATION. THE MID-LEVELS HAVE SOME
SATURATION AND THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY OF ABOUT 500 J/KG.
OVERALL...TIMING TRENDS REMAINED THE SAME WITH MAINLY MORNING RAIN
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED FORCING
AND CONSENSUS HI RES CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING LIMITED
RAIN COVERAGE WEST AND SOUTH OF LA CROSSE...THINKING AN ISOLATED
TO SCT LINE OF SHRA-TSRA IS THE BEST WE ARE GOING TO DO ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. THAT LINE WOULD AFFECT A GIVEN SPOT FOR AN HOUR. BEEN
WATCHING THE HRRR BOULDER VERSION AND IT REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THIS THU MORNING FORECAST.
THUS...HAVE BACKED THE RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 50 PERCENT SOUTH
OF ABOUT I-90...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT INCREASING NORTHWARD. HAVE
ALSO LOWERED THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THAT LOWER RAIN CHANCE AREA.
THE FRONT MAY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVATED WORKING INTO SW WI WHERE
A BIT OF INSTABILITY WILL GROW. SPC HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK...AND IT SEEMS REALLY MARGINAL PROVIDED THE FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT BY 3-4 PM /OF GRANT COUNTY/. FOR THE MOST PART...THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA HAS A SIMILAR FORECAST TO EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD
ADVECTION KICKS IN POST-FRONTALLY ON THURSDAY WITH BRISK
CONDITIONS...DRAWING A LOWER CLOUD DECK IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
THIS PERIOD IS MAINLY DRY WITH RIDGE BUILDING AND MAINLY WEAK
WAVES TRYING TO GENERATE WEATHER. THE EMPHASIS WAS REALLY ON
LOOKING FOR POSSIBLE DAYS FOR DRY FALL FIRE STARTS. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE WARM ADVECTIVE DAYS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HAVE
INCREASED THESE A BIT WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE
SATURDAY. THIS COULD HAPPEN SUNDAY AS WELL...AS A WARM PROD OF AIR
MOVES OFF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...A GREAT
FLOW FOR UNUSUALLY WARMTH. HAVE BUMPED HIGHS SUNDAY TO JUST BELOW
RECORD LEVELS WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...CLOSER TO THE HOT AIR.
A MODERATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY BUT THE VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT IS BATTLING THE DYNAMICS. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO A BIT COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP OUR EYES ON THIS ONE AS IT SEEMS IT COULD
PRODUCE SOME RAIN...EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL FORECAST CONSENSUS IS
DRY. BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A WIND PRODUCER WITH ANOTHER 20-30 MPH DAY.
AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...ALREADY DRY...WILL REALLY NEED RAIN AFTER
THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESS
AND WAS JUST ENTERING INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING.
THE 08.00Z NAM INDICATES VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE WAVE AND BEST DYNAMICS STILL
EXPECTED TO PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF BOTH TAF SITES. THE NEW NAM
AND THE RUNS OF THE HRRR THROUGH THE EVENING HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF KEEPING THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE KRST COULD GET MISSED COMPLETELY BY THE RAIN SO HAVE
DROPPED BACK TO JUST A VCSH THERE. THE HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT KLSE COULD GET CLIPPED BY PASSING SHOWER EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE NAM WOULD KEEP IT DRY. DECIDED TO TAKE
OUT THE CATEGORICAL RAIN FOR KLSE AND JUST COVER THE SMALL RAIN
CHANCE WITH A TEMPO GROUP. STILL EXPECTING SOME GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE NEW NAM HAS ALSO CONTINUED THE TREND OF
BRINGING IN A MVFR CLOUD DECK IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FIELD
AND HAVE BROUGHT THIS IN FOR THURSDAY EVENING AT BOTH SITES. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS MIXED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SO
EXPECTING THE GUSTS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS WELL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1111 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SHOWS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS AMPLIFICATION IS THE RESULT OF A HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED OF
NW MEXICO. SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE PLUME CIRCLES AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION INTO THE SOUTHERN MS
VALLEY. THIS PLUME IS STILL WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING OUR
UPPER LEVELS ON THE DRY SIDE. THIS DRIER AIR AND INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WAS SAMPLED WELL THIS MORNING WITH THE 12Z KTBW
SOUNDING WITH A DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION JUST BELOW
700MB...AND ANOTHER JUST SHY OF 500MB. THIS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
NEAR 500MB IS GOING TO A POTENTIAL OBSTACLE TO UPDRAFTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HOLD BACK SOME OF THE EXPECTED DIURNAL SEA-
BREEZE STORM POTENTIAL...OR AT LEAST DELAY THE ONSET UNTIL PEAK
HEATING IS REACHED AFTER 18-19Z.
BELOW 700MB WE SEE A GREATER MOISTURE PROFILE AND THIS IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME 5-8KFT CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS TO PRESENT THE FORECAST AS A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS. THESE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
TIME AS MIXING TAKES PLACE AND LOWER BASE CUMULUS BUILD INTO THAT
LEVEL.
AT THE SURFACE...REGION FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CAROLINAS...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THE RESULTING GENERAL FLOW IS LIGHT EASTERLY...ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT IS LIGHT ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD ALLOW A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE
TO DEVELOP AND TURN WINDS ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THINGS ARE QUIET ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE OF
THE SUNCOAST...MAINLY BEYOND 30NM FROM SHORE. JUST KEEP THESE
STORMS IN MIND IF HEADING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AT LEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FEEL THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE MORE LIKE SUMMER...AS DEWPOINTS
ARE UP A BIT...AND EVENTUALLY WE SHOULD BE SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
SEA-BREEZE. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING AS ROBUST IN TERMS OF
CONVECTION AS WE WOULD SEE DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS...BUT THE SAME
PROCESSES SHOULD BE TAKING PLACE. AS MENTIONED IN THE
SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A DECENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 500MB
WHICH LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST DELAY THE ONSET OF DEEP
CONVECTION UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON (PEAK HEATING)...AND MAY BE
ENOUGH TO DECREASE THE OVERALL COVERAGE. HOWEVER...ALL THE HIRES
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST SOME
STORMS WILL GET GOING...SO NOT GOING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE RAIN CHANCES OR TIMING QUITE YET. FOR NOW WILL
LEAVE A GENERAL 30-50% COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-4...AND 20-30% COVERAGE
FURTHER NORTH. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCALLY DERIVED
HIRES CONSENSUS NEIGHBORHOOD RAIN CHANCES.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TEND TO MIGRATE OFF
THE COAST AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY OVER THE LAND MASS...WITH
ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. SEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
RANGING BY SUNRISE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE..TO
THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...
ANOTHER MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL TO THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS LESSENING OF THE
RIDGE INFLUENCE MAY ALLOW FOR MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE
OF DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WE MAY BE MORE ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THAN WE ARE TODAY...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ALSO LOOKS MORE UNIFORM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
CURRENT POPS RANGE FROM AROUND 30% AT THE BEACHES TO 40-50%
INLAND. UNLESS THE 12Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS COMES IN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAKING ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THIS
FORECAST. SIMILAR TO ANY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS LATE FRIDAY...SHOULD JUST BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PASSING STORM. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE LOCALIZED AND
BRIEF IN NATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH
THE MID 80S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH.
HAVE A GREAT REST OF YOUR THURSDAY...AND WATCH OUT FOR THOSE
ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
SATURDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST
ON SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH
FLORIDA. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. DURING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE CLOSED LOW AND
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL
MEANDER SLOWLY NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
ADVECT A DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH PLEASANT DRY AND
DELIGHTFUL MID OCTOBER WEATHER EXPECTED DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY...WITH THIS FRONT SAGGING INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THIS NEXT FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES WITH
JUST A SUBTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLE SUMMER...WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z. THESE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING. SOME
PATCHY MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT
TERMINALS SUCH AS KLAL/KPGD...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS
ARE FORECAST. ANY EARLY FOG DISSIPATES FOLLOWED BY GENERAL VFR ON
FRIDAY. AGAIN SCT STORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS
OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST BY LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS MORE RESEMBLING SUMMER WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY SHIFTING WIND TO THE NORTH AND
THEN QUICKLY NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE
ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PREVENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM FALLING BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 74 87 74 / 40 30 40 20
FMY 88 74 89 74 / 50 30 50 20
GIF 88 72 88 71 / 40 20 50 20
SRQ 86 74 87 73 / 40 30 30 30
BKV 87 71 88 69 / 30 20 50 20
SPG 86 75 87 75 / 40 30 30 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT...HUBBARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
630 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL THE BE THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL CROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 03Z SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COOL FRONT ALONG A PREFONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN IA AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. ALOFT...H850 ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER
IOWA WITH A NOSE OF +10C DEW POINTS LINED UP FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY FEEDING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
SFC WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. A WEAK LINE OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN ATTEMPTING TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE DRY OVER MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE
BETTER SATURATION OCCURS NEARER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT. MESO HRRR AND SYNOPTIC NAM/GFS
MODELS BOTH SUGGEST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PSBL ISO THUNDER
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IA MN BORDER BETWEEN 09-18Z THIS MORNING. FARTHER
SOUTH...LESSER CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE
BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL
OUTRUN THE DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE MILD
ONCE AGAIN AS H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE HIGHS NEAR THE
80 DEGREE MARK FROM SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH...IT WILL
FEEL COOLER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST BY 4 PM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND IN THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DECLINE AT AROUND HALF AN INCH PER
MONTH THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS LONG TERM FCST PERIOD IS REFLECTIVE OF
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP AS WE EFFECTIVELY HAVE ABOUT ZERO
PRECIP CHANCES FROM FRI THROUGH NEXT WED. FCST DETAILS FOCUS
PRIMARILY ON TEMPERATURE DETAILS.
FRIDAY...
AT 06Z THU...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PICKING UP MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT
ONSHORE TO BRITISH COLUMBIA ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. MEANWHILE...AN
UPPER LOW IS CHURNING WEST OF THE HUDSON BAY. AN ATTENDANT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PICKING UP THE BRITISH COLUMBIA MOISTURE
ALOFT AND WILL DRAG IT THROUGH IA AS THE TROUGH AXIS/UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY...RESULTING IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THESE CLOUDS...HAVE
DROPPED TEMPS ONE OR TWO DEGREES. NEAR THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH IOWA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR WEST ALL
DAY...CAA WILL BE TAKING PLACE WITH MODELS KEEPING 850 MB TEMPS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS WEEKEND...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PASSES EAST OF IOWA SATURDAY
MORNING...STRONG WAA WILL BE PUMPING INTO IOWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A DECENTLY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL COME CRASHING
TOWARDS IOWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS
WILL START AROUND 10C SAT AM...INCREASE TO 15C BY SAT PM...AND TO
19C BY SUN PM. MODELS KEYING ON UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER HIGH.
SUNDAY HOWEVER...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE. SO HAVE KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY AND INCREASED THEM A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE ROCKIES...BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BACK TO THE REGION. THIS WILL DROP MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 OR SO
DEGREES VERSUS SUNDAY/S HIGHS. LONG RANGE MODELS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/PASSAGE OF HIGH. EURO HAS HELD THE
LINE WHILE THE USUALLY SLOWER GEM HAS SPED UP...AND THE USUALLY
OVERLY-FAST GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF DMX
CWA BY TUE AFTERNOON...BRINGING BACK THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND
WAA TO IOWA. TEMPS TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR MONDAY AND WITH INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN CAA...HAVE STUCK WITH THE COOL DOWN...FOLLOWED BY A
5 OR SO DEGREE TEMP INCREASE FOR TUE. MAJOR DWPT DEPRESSIONS WILL
NIX ANY PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW...MORE OR LESS...IS HINTED AT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE UNTIL CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE
ENOUGH TO WHERE MODIFYING FCST WOULD ADD VALUE TO IT.
&&
.AVIATION...08/12Z
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
A FEW CONCERNS FOR THIS PACKAGE. SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
NOW MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EARLY AND ISOLATED
THUNDER NORTHEAST THROUGH 20Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS
LOW SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT THIS TIME. WITH FRONT PASSING
THROUGH AREA TODAY...WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AFT 15Z NORTH...18Z
CENTRAL AND 00Z SOUTHEAST. WINDS MIX TO 20 TO 30KTS NORTH AND
SLIGHTLY LESS CENTRAL SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD. AFT 00Z COLD AIR
ADVECTION ADVANCING SOUTH MAY BE ENOUGH TO THICKEN MVFR STRATUS
INTO THE NORTH THIRD OF FORECAST AREA. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
659 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH WILL PASS TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING WITH COLDER AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
655 AM UPDATE: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS STREAMING OFF THE
ST. LAWRENCE INTO NW MAINE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM MODEL
DOING THE BEST W/THE CLOUDS AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE ACCOUNT FOR
THESE CLOUDS COMING IN. CIG PLOTS SHOW CLOUD DECK OF AROUND 4500
FT. TEMPERATURES BACK ACROSS THE NW DOWN IN THE LOWER 30 SUCH AS
CLAYTON LAKE(40B) W/31F. BAKER LAKE IN NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY
WAS DOWN TO 29F. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SOME AFTER 12 W/THE HELP
OF THE SUN.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY TODAY AND THEN THE LLVLS DRY OUT W/NW WINDS KICKING IN
FOR A TIME. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
STATE LATER TODAY AND THESE CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON THE IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY BACK ACROSS THE ONTARIO PROVINCE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY W/A DECENT NW
WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH EARLY TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DROP QUICKLY BY EVENING DOWN TO LESS THAN
6 MPH W/JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THINKING IS THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP OFF
QUICKLY BEFORE LEVELING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONCERN IS THAT TEMPS
COULD DROP FURTHER IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF A WHILE LONGER ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOW LYING AREAS. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF LOW
TO MID 30S N AND W AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
MORNING AND CROSS THE REGION DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT RAIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AD THEN TAPER TO
SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES EAST INTO
THE MARITIMES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE ST
JOHN VALLEY AND UPWARDS TO AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS DOWN EAST.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND
THE LOW TO MID 50S DOWN EAST.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER
IN COOLER AIR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND 30
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 CENTRAL AND DOWN
EAST.
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A BLUSTERY AND CHILLY DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWER TO THE ST JOHN VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWN EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL SEE A MODERATING TEMPERATURES
TREND BY MONDAY AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH TRANSPORTS MILDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY MILD WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN RAIN/CIGS FRIDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THIS TERM. A SWELL IS STILL
OUT ON THE WATERS, BUT WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 3 TO 4 FT
AWAY FROM THE INTRA COASTAL ZONE. WINDS WILL COME FOR A TIME EARLY
TODAY W/ARRIVAL OF CAA HITTING THE WATERS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO
INCREASE THE WIND GUSTS TO 20 KTS MAINLY FOR THE OUTER ZONES. THE
OFFSHORE WIND SHOULD KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FT.
SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
650 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING... THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 AM THURSDAY...
TODAY: PRETTY QUIET DAY WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS (WITH MINIMAL
VERTICAL EXTEND) AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH AN ACCELERATING
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. CURRENT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (EXCEPT FOR
PATCHY STRATOCU IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS DUE TO MOISTURE
POOLING AROUND 850 MB) AND CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY IN THE EAST. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE... A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH HEATING... LEAVING
LITTLE MORE THAN AFTERNOON CUMULUS (WITH LITTLE VERTICAL EXTENT
GIVEN THE MID LEVEL STABILITY) AND THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY. MODELS INDICATE SOME PATCHY LIGHT LATE AFTERNOON PRECIP IN
THE NRN PIEDMONT... BUT BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE SPARSITY
OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT... ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES... AND WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
FORECAST THICKNESSES OF 10-15 M ABOVE NORMAL SUGGEST HIGHS ON PAR
WITH YESTERDAY`S... UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL SHIFT JUST TO OUR SSE TONIGHT... AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
FROM THE SW AT 2-5 KTS ALONG WITH IMPROVING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT FOG. BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BE
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS WITH
ACCELERATING MID LEVEL FLOW AND RISE IN WEAK DPVA. LOWS 57-61... A
BIT HIGHER THAN TEMPS THIS MORNING. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM THURSDAY...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT EVERYONE IN CENTRAL NC WILL SEE
SOME RAIN BETWEEN MID-EVENING FRI AND MID-EVENING SAT. A BROAD
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM QUEBEC ACROSS MI TO NRN MO/KS EARLY IN
THE DAY AMPLIFIES AND STRENGTHENS WITH A NARROWING WAVELENGTH AS IT
HEADS ESE... CULMINATING IN A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
TN/GA/NC/SC SAT/SAT NIGHT... WHILE AT ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPS ESE THROUGH NC. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS
AND IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET
ACCELERATION SHOULD ALL PROVIDE PLENTIFUL FORCING FOR ASCENT ACTING
ON AN INCREASINGLY MOIST COLUMN (PW RISING TO > 1.5")... ANAFRONTAL
IN NATURE AS NOTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT
LITTLE PRECIP IN THE CWA BEFORE SUNSET FRI... ALTHOUGH THE SREF AND
GEFS SUGGEST A LITTLE FASTER ARRIVAL... WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.
WILL BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES INTO THE NW CWA AFTER 3 PM... SPREADING
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND INCREASING TO A MAXIMUM (LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL) DURING THE PERIOD FROM MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON SAT. THE ECMWF TAKES A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH AS COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS... SO WITH A NOD TO THIS
SOLUTION... WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...
SPECIFICALLY THE SE CWA AS LIFT SHOULD BE BEST IN THE EAST WITH EVER-
INCREASING DPVA WITH EASTWARD TROUGH PROGRESSION... AND WITH THE
FORMATION OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE SC COAST
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE INTO
CENTRAL/ERN NC. PRECIP SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERS... ALTHOUGH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING MAINLY IN THE EAST
SUPPORTS A NEED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE EAST. WITH THE
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON... TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB MINIMALLY EARLY BEFORE FALLING DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON. HIGHS FRI 80-83 WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOWS FRI NIGHT 59-
65 WITH RISING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS SAT IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S... LIKELY OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. ATTM
EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OF ABOUT A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
ON SATURDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF OF THE
CAROLINA COAST BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STILL LINGER BEHIND OVER
THE STATE...THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME REMAINING PRECIPITATION IN THE
EAST. AS THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS AWAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS CUT OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BUT DISAGREE ON ITS LOCATION
WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE UPPER LOW BACK OVER LAND AND THE GFS
SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST. THIS MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON CLOUD COVER IN
THE EAST SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE COAST.
BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE UPPER TROUGH. AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS IT DRIES OUT IN BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS
BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH. EVEN IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO OCCUR...BOTH THE
FRONT AND TROUGH ARE VERY PROGRESSIVE AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
PUSHES THESE FEATURES THROUGH VERY QUICKLY. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT THE MOST. ON THE HEELS OF THE
FRONT...A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...THINGS WILL START OUT A BIT
TRICKY AS A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM LEAVES THE AREA WILL DETERMINE
HOW LOW THE TEMPERATURES GO ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHWEST COULD
SEE SOME UPPER 40S WITH MID 50S TO THE SOUTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD EXPECT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
50S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS... BRINGING CALM TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD AT INT/GSO/RDU/FAY THROUGH 12Z FRI. AT
RWI... CLEAR SKIES AND CALM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PATCHY FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
(MOSTLY FOG BUT STRATUS ALSO POSSIBLE) BEFORE 13Z. ANY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIFT QUICKLY WITH HEATING BY 14Z... AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH 12Z FRI... ALTHOUGH
POCKETS OF MVFR FOG MAY OCCUR AFTER 07Z TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z FRI... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MID
EVENING FRI. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO THICKEN AND LOWER TO MVFR FRI
NIGHT... AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY IFR... LASTING THROUGH EARLY SAT
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SE THROUGH THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS (BEST STORM CHANCE NEAR FAY). VFR
CONDITIONS THEN ARE LIKELY FROM LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON AS COOL
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
940 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR INDICATE LOW CLOUDS ERODING FROM WEST
TO EAST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED...ERODING IN
THE JAMES VALLEY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED LATEST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST WHERE SKIES WERE CLEARING. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR MORNING UPDATE WILL ADJUST LEADING EDGE
OF CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH COVERAGE ON THE WEST SIDE. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY`S
CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE SURFACE
REFLECTION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA GENERATING LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MISS MY
SOUTHWEST...NOT BY MUCH...IF MODELS ARE CORRECT SO KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY. LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WELL ADVERTISED BY MODELS THE PAST
24 HOURS.
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND ALL OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA NOW THROUGH 12-15Z BEFORE ERODING FROM WEST
TO EAST 15-19Z TODAY. THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PERHAPS A FEW AREAS OF FAIR-WEATHER CU. NOT A BAD FALL DAY AT
ALL WITH FORECAST HIGHS MID 60S WEST TO MID 50S EAST...ALONG WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10-15 MPH.
RETURN FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 30S EAST TO LOWER 40S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
A WARMING TREND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS PUSHING INTO THE 80S BY
SATURDAY.
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE AND
AFFILIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA...BRINGING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...THOUGH THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL AS MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME IN LINE WITH BRINGING IN
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT (45-50 KTS) AND MIXING THEM DOWN. HAVE
STARTED THE TREND OF INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST...AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED ON SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.
COOLER...THOUGH STILL NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF IFR WILL SPREAD SOUTH
AND IMPACT KMOT-KBIS-KJMS THROUGH THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR AROUND MID-DAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1028 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
TWO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY...1) MORE PESSIMISM WITH DEGREE
OF CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST...AND 2) ADDITION OF A BIT STRONGER PRECIP MENTION
ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTH.
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA AT THIS
POINT IN THE MORNING...AS MAIN UPPER WAVE IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER UPSTREAM JET STREAK DIGGING
ACROSS MONTANA...AND THIS IMPULSE WILL PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS LINKS THE TWO FEATURES...AND HAVE SEEN A SCATTERING
OF VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. FAIRLY UNLIKELY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH
A FAIR DEGREE OF DRYING BELOW THE MID LAYER. SOME OF THIS WILL
LIKELY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SLIPPING SOUTHWARD. BETTER UPPER FORCING LOOKS TO TREND
JUST A BIT SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND GIVEN THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF DRYING BELOW THE MID
DECK...WILL FOREGO ADDING IN ANY MENTIONABLE LATER DAY/EARLY
EVENING POPS TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND PROGRESSION HAS BEEN TO ENCROACH INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID MORNING. FLOW BELOW INVERSION
STARTS TO TAKE ON MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND RAP/NAM/HRRR
INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY DISTINCT LAYER OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME A STRONGER FEATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY...AND PERHAPS WELL INTO THE EVENING EAST OF I 29.
STILL LOOKING AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND IN MIXED LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON...SO CURRENT WIND GUSTS EXPECTATIONS ON TRACK. WITH
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...DID NOTCH BACK HIGH TEMPS A BIT...OR WORK IN
A STEADYING TO SLIGHT FALL ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MANY LOCATIONS MIXING BEHIND BOUNDARY AND SHOULD
APPROACH HIGHS PRIOR TO ADVANCE OF STRATUS FIELD FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
AS THE FRONT FINISHES MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE AREA NEXT FEW
HOURS...IT IS STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE LINGERING INSTABILITY...AND WITH A FEW
NARROW BANDS OF MID CLOUDS/POSSIBLY ACCAS MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN/MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE HRRR KEEPS
TRYING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKE
ISOLATED IF ANYTHING. THIS SHOULD ALL BE OUT BY 12Z/7 AM CDT.
THE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
COULD STILL BRING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...AND
THIS COULD INCLUDE THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR AREA DURING THE
DAY...SO HAVE LEFT THE SMALL POPS IN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CASE FOR
GOING WITH JUST SPRINKLES. THE CLOUD DECK OF COURSE WILL REACH
SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEFORE DECENT
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH THE BREEZY CATEGORY TODAY WITH WINDS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER THAN WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...OR NOT TOO MUCH
WARMING FROM THE VERY MILD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
THE CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOW 40S SOUTH...AGAIN HOLDING
ABOVE FROSTY LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO
SURPASS SEASONAL NORMAL BY 10 OR MORE DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...WITH
VERY BALMY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONLY REASONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE REGION. A
SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM GOM MOISTURE...IT WILL HAVE TO RELY SOLELY ON
MOISTURE IT CAN DRAG ACROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
FOR NOW...PREFER THE DRIER GFS OVER THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS DO
SUGGEST VERY LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SD
INTO CENTRAL MN INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIKELY THE BIG STORY FOR
MONDAY WILL BE VERY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED
WINDS PUSH 20-30 MPH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...OCCASIONAL
GUSTS COULD PUSH 40 TO 45 MPH AS WE QUICKLY MIX OUT MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS IN THAT PORTION OF THE FCST.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK...A CONTINUED WARM PATTERN
WILL PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
VFR THROUGH 09/1200. CEILINGS GENERALLY ABV 10K FT OVER THE AREA WITH
SCT CLDS 3-5K FT AGL EAST. A FEW SURFACE GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FROM
THE NW 15Z-10/00Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
624 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
AS THE FRONT FINISHES MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE AREA NEXT FEW
HOURS...IT IS STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE LINGERING INSTABILITY...AND WITH A FEW
NARROW BANDS OF MID CLOUDS/POSSIBLY ACCAS MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN/MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE HRRR KEEPS
TRYING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKE
ISOLATED IF ANYTHING. THIS SHOULD ALL BE OUT BY 12Z/7 AM CDT.
THE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
COULD STILL BRING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...AND
THIS COULD INCLUDE THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR AREA DURING THE
DAY...SO HAVE LEFT THE SMALL POPS IN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CASE FOR
GOING WITH JUST SPRINKLES. THE CLOUD DECK OF COURSE WILL REACH
SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEFORE DECENT
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH THE BREEZY CATEGORY TODAY WITH WINDS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER THAN WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...OR NOT TOO MUCH
WARMING FROM THE VERY MILD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
THE CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOW 40S SOUTH...AGAIN HOLDING
ABOVE FROSTY LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO
SURPASS SEASONAL NORMAL BY 10 OR MORE DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...WITH
VERY BALMY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONLY REASONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE REGION. A
SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM GOM MOISTURE...IT WILL HAVE TO RELY SOLELY ON
MOISTURE IT CAN DRAG ACROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
FOR NOW...PREFER THE DRIER GFS OVER THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS DO
SUGGEST VERY LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SD
INTO CENTRAL MN INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIKELY THE BIG STORY FOR
MONDAY WILL BE VERY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED
WINDS PUSH 20-30 MPH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...OCCASIONAL
GUSTS COULD PUSH 40 TO 45 MPH AS WE QUICKLY MIX OUT MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS IN THAT PORTION OF THE FCST.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK...A CONTINUED WARM PATTERN
WILL PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
VFR THROUGH 09/1200. CEILINGS GENERALLY ABV 10K FT OVER THE AREA WITH
SCT CLDS 3-5K FT AGL EAST. A FEW SURFACE GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FROM
THE NW 15Z-10/00Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
314 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
...SLIGHTLY COOLER TOMORROW...
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER TODAY ACROSS SE CO. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...RIGHT AROUND 80 DEGREES AT KPUB OR
NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HAVE ALREADY REDUCED POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LOW POPS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA
ARE IN JEOPARDY...WITH NO SIGN OF CONVECTION THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND RATON
AND SPANISH PEAKS REGION. THIS IS WHERE ENHANCED CU FIELD HAS BUILT
UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR GETTING AN ISOLD
SHOWER OR STORM LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NRN CO AND SHOULD REACH THE PALMER DVD AND
THE REST OF SE CO AFTER 00Z. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
NAM...WHICH SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THE
HIGHER RES HRRR AND WRF MODELS...WHICH SHOW FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE HIGHER RES SOLUTIONS
AND MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS AND ERN MTS OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGINS OVER TELLER COUNTY AND THE PIKES PEAK
REGION...THEN SHIFT SWD WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...CLEARING THE
SRN ZONES BY 12Z OR SO. LOOKS MAINLY TO BE STRATIFORM PRECIP...SO
ANY LTG WITH STRONGER EMBEDDED CELLS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLD AT BEST.
TOMORROW...AFTER EARLY MORNING STRATUS CLEARS...WILL BE ANOTHER DRY
AND PLEASANT DAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S FOR THE PLAINS. THE NAM
STILL SHOWS SOME SPOTTY AFTERNOON QPF OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...BUT IT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPING THINGS
DRY ACROSS SE CO. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STRONGLY TO THE WEST
AND NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES EVIDENT IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL
KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW...AND THIS CAN BE REEVALUATED BY LATER
SHIFTS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING +10C OR HIGHER. ON
SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH SUNDAY BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER. ON SUNDAY GRIDS HAVE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...ALS/75...COS/81...PUB/88.
RECORDS ARE....ALS/78...COS/82...PUB/89.
.MONDAY...WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...RESULTING IN SOME COOLING ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE
PLAINS. FORECAST HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON THE PLAINS RISE INTO THE
80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH ARE 10F OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL. BY THURSDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING EASTWARD. SOME MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM COULD REACH WESTERN COLORADO...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SOME
ISOLATED POPS TO THE SAN JUANS AND SAWATCH RANGE. SYSTEM WILL BE
MILD SO ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
--PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 314 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2015
CONSENSUS FROM THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT MVFR
STRATUS DECK WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL ADD
THIS TO THE TAFS FOR KPUB AND KCOS FOR THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE FAIRLY EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY
STRONG OR PROLONGED UPSLOPE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AFTER SHIFTING TO THE N-NE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT...WHICH LOOKS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO SE CO FROM 00Z THROUGH
03Z OR SO. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KALS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
309 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SHOWS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS AMPLIFICATION IS THE RESULT OF A HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED OF
NW MEXICO. SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE PLUME CIRCLES AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CIRCULATION INTO THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY.
THIS PLUME IS STILL WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST KEEPING OUR UPPER
LEVELS ON THE DRY SIDE. THIS DRIER AIR AND INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WAS SAMPLED WELL THIS MORNING WITH THE 12Z KTBW SOUNDING
WITH A DEFINED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION JUST BELOW 700MB...AND ANOTHER
JUST SHY OF 500MB. THIS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 500MB IS GOING
TO A POTENTIAL OBSTACLE TO SOME UPDRAFTS THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HOLD BACK AT LEAST SOME OF THE EXPECTED
DIURNAL SEA-BREEZE STORM POTENTIAL.
AT THE SURFACE...REGION FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CAROLINAS...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THE RESULTING GENERAL FLOW IS LIGHT EASTERLY...ALTHOUGH THE
GRADIENT IS LIGHT ENOUGH THAT IT HAS ALLOWED A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE
TO DEVELOP AND TURN WINDS ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FEEL INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL BE MORE LIKE
SUMMER...AS DEWPOINTS ARE UP A BIT...AND WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING SEA-BREEZE. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING AS ROBUST
IN TERMS OF CONVECTION AS WE WOULD SEE DURING THE SUMMER
MONTHS...BUT THE SAME PROCESSES ARE TAKING PLACE. AS MENTIONED IN
THE SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A DECENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 500MB
WHICH DOES APPEAR TO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF DEEP
CONVECTION...BUT ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE GAINING MOMENTUM NOW...AND
THE CURRENT FORECAST COVERAGES OF RAIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS LOOK
APPROPRIATE.
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TEND TO MIGRATE OFF
THE COAST AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY OVER THE LAND MASS...WITH
ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. SEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
RANGING BY SUNRISE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE..TO
THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...
ANOTHER MORE SUMMER-LIKE FEEL TO THE FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS LESSENING OF THE
RIDGE INFLUENCE MAY ALLOW FOR MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE
OF DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WE MAY BE MORE ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THAN WE ARE TODAY...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ALSO LOOKS MORE UNIFORM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
CURRENT POPS RANGE FROM AROUND 30% AT THE BEACHES TO 40-50%
INLAND. SIMILAR TO ANY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY...THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS LATE FRIDAY...SHOULD JUST BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PASSING STORM. ANY RAINFALL THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE LOCALIZED AND
BRIEF IN NATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH
THE MID 80S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH.
HAVE A GREAT EVENING EVERYONE...AND WATCH OUT FOR THOSE SCATTERED
LATE DAY STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SWING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL HELP FOSTER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
ALSO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY...BRINGING IN A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS BY
SUNDAY. THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES BY
SUNDAY MORNING...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE NOTICEABLY
DRIER...HOLDING RAIN CHANCES TO 20-30 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
LOW RAIN CHANCES AND MORNING LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S...WARMING
UP TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ANOTHER MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHILE A WEAK TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF CUBA BY
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST.
&&
AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MORE
CLOSELY RESEMBLE SUMMER...WITH SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING.
SOME PATCHY MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AT TERMINALS SUCH AS KLAL/KPGD...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST. ANY EARLY FOG DISSIPATES FOLLOWED BY
GENERAL VFR ON FRIDAY. AGAIN SCT STORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS
OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
TURN ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST BY LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
FIRE WEATHER...
CONDITIONS MORE RESEMBLING SUMMER WILL BE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY SHIFTING WIND TO THE NORTH AND
THEN QUICKLY NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE
ARRIVING BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
WILL PREVENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM FALLING BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 74 85 74 85 / 30 40 20 30
FMY 73 88 74 87 / 30 50 20 40
GIF 72 87 72 86 / 20 50 20 50
SRQ 73 83 72 86 / 30 30 20 30
BKV 71 85 70 86 / 20 50 30 30
SPG 75 85 76 85 / 30 30 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...FLEMING
MARINE...MROCZKA/WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
511 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL/NWRN
IN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INCREASING SLWY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. AS OF 1PM CDT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO 2
WHILE TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT UN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F FOR THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA. THE BIGGER
QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING
INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND +12C OVER
THE REGION...WHILE THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS ARND 500 J/KG
OF CAPE INVOF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA/NWRN MO.
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INITIALIZATION AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ON
TRACK...SO...HAVE TRENDED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT STEADILY TRACKS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PCPN REACHING THE RFD AREA BTWN 3-
5PM AND THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA ARND 5-6PM WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN OF ARND 1 TO 2
HRS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO...POSSIBLY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLD
SHRA. AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...GIVING THE LIMITED DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AND NO REASON TO SEE WHY THERE WOULD BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT TS WITH THE
SHRA...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SOME TS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING
WILL BE LOCATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN
INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 05-06Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME TRAILING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY DURG THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VEER TO NLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 3 MB/3 HR AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE TRUE COOLER AIR WILL NOT
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL WARMING WILL BE
LESS THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FOR COMPARISON...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORNING LOW
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ARND 30 DEGREES...WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES AT
THE MOST.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
233 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A GOOD WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SATURDAY...AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...AS THIS
SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTS ITSELF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 925 AND 850 MB ARE PROGGED
TO REACH UP AROUND 18-19 DEGREES C AND 15-16 DEGREES C BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
A EVEN A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SHIFT OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY
MONDAY...AND AS IT DOES SO...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE DECENTLY MILD ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE COOLER AIRMASS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN REACH INTO THE 70S...BEFORE CONDITIONS COOL DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...BUT SEASONAL AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* LINE OF SHRA AND SOME ISOLATED TSRA THIS EVENING...SHORT
DURATION.
* WINDS TURNING FROM SW TO NW THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
* LOW CIGS/MVFR POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
JUST SOME BRIEF TWEAKS TO TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA LINE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST TRENDS ARE ON
TRACK. OPTED TO LEAVE 6SM VSBY WITH SHRA TO SUGGEST MORE
SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ALSO AM NOT SURE
CIGS WILL GET QUITE AS LOW AS 3500-4000 FT BUT BELIEVE THAT WOULD
HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT REGARDLESS. MORE LIKELY MIGHT BE AROUND 5000FT
AS PER MOST UPSTREAM OBS.
DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF KMSP OVER WESTERN WI AT MIDDAY...
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS IOWA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING MODESTLY GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
EASTERN WI/LM AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTAL
TROUGH. WINDS 220-240 DEG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUTS
NEAR 20 KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING
NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
ROUGHLY 02Z AT RFD...03-04Z ACROSS CHI TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME
NORTH AND BREEZY EARLY FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY JUST PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD INTO AREA TOWARD
EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED VERY PERSISTENT IN DEPICTING
A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING RFD
BY 21-22Z...AND CHICAGO TERMINALS BY ROUGHLY 23Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY THOUGH
LIKELY ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE LINE
GIVEN TOPS 300-350. THOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LOW...HAVE
INDICATED A VCTS IN TERMINALS TO CONVEY THE PICTURE.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SHRA/TSRA TRENDS THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH ON MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WIND.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... VFR. BREEZY SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS TURNING BREEZY NW.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BREEZY NW.
&&
.MARINE...
312 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW.
OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE LAKE LATTER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. WITH THESE STRONG
WINDS...EXPECT WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO INCREASE UP
CLOSE TO 10 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD...COVING
THIS PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES WELL THROUGH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 30 KT APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD BET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...A
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW MOVING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE HUDSON BAY...WILL SHIFT OVER THE LAKE. A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY MONDAY EVENING.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...5 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
312 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL/NWRN
IN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INCREASING SLWY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. AS OF 1PM CDT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO 2
WHILE TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT UN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F FOR THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA. THE BIGGER
QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING
INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND +12C OVER
THE REGION...WHILE THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS ARND 500 J/KG
OF CAPE INVOF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA/NWRN MO.
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INITIALIZATION AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ON
TRACK...SO...HAVE TRENDED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT STEADILY TRACKS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PCPN REACHING THE RFD AREA BTWN 3-
5PM AND THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA ARND 5-6PM WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN OF ARND 1 TO 2
HRS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO...POSSIBLY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLD
SHRA. AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...GIVING THE LIMITED DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AND NO REASON TO SEE WHY THERE WOULD BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT TS WITH THE
SHRA...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SOME TS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING
WILL BE LOCATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN
INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 05-06Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME TRAILING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY DURG THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VEER TO NLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 3 MB/3 HR AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE TRUE COOLER AIR WILL NOT
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL WARMING WILL BE
LESS THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FOR COMPARISON...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORNING LOW
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ARND 30 DEGREES...WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES AT
THE MOST.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
233 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A GOOD WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SATURDAY...AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...AS THIS
SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTS ITSELF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 925 AND 850 MB ARE PROGGED
TO REACH UP AROUND 18-19 DEGREES C AND 15-16 DEGREES C BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
A EVEN A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SHIFT OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY
MONDAY...AND AS IT DOES SO...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE DECENTLY MILD ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE COOLER AIRMASS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN REACH INTO THE 70S...BEFORE CONDITIONS COOL DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...BUT SEASONAL AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTN.
* TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
* TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER THIS EVE.
* LOW CIGS/MVFR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF KMSP OVER WESTERN WI AT MIDDAY...
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS IOWA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING MODESTLY GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
EASTERN WI/LM AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTAL
TROUGH. WINDS 220-240 DEG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUTS
NEAR 20 KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING
NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
ROUGHLY 02Z AT RFD...03-04Z ACROSS CHI TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME
NORTH AND BREEZY EARLY FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY JUST PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD INTO AREA TOWARD
EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED VERY PERSISTENT IN DEPICTING
A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING RFD
BY 21-22Z...AND CHICAGO TERMINALS BY ROUGHLY 23Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY THOUGH
LIKELY ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE LINE
GIVEN TOPS 300-350. THOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LOW...HAVE
INDICATED A VCTS IN TERMINALS TO CONVEY THE PICTURE.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH IN SHRA TIMING...MEDIUM-LOW IN TSRA COVERAGE.
* HIGH IN MVFR CIG TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WIND.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... VFR. BREEZY SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS TURNING BREEZY NW.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BREEZY NW.
&&
.MARINE...
312 PM CDT
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WISCONSIN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW.
OVERALL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT WILL
OCCUR OVER THE LAKE LATTER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. WITH THESE STRONG
WINDS...EXPECT WAVES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO INCREASE UP
CLOSE TO 10 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD...COVING
THIS PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES WELL THROUGH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTH OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
INTO CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP AROUND 30 KT APPEAR TO BE A
GOOD BET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...A
COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW MOVING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE HUDSON BAY...WILL SHIFT OVER THE LAKE. A WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY MONDAY EVENING.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...5 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
309 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
Cold front approaching the western border of Illinois this afternoon
and will be the main story in the short range as the eastern half of
the CONUS is dominated by quasi zonal flow aloft. Winds shifting to
more northwesterly behind the boundary and the pressure gradient is
weak, but enough to keep it a little breezy in the overnight hours.
Mostly cloudy, with some scattered showers and thunderstorms before
midnight. Since most of the showers will require at least a little
bit of an assist from the heat of the day, after sunset, the showers
should slowly lose coverage and intensity. Overnight lows drop into
the lower 50s for most areas NW of the Illinois River Valley... and
areas south of I-70 staying warmer under more persistent cloud cover
and a slower moving front in the early morning hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
By early Friday morning, the cold front will have progressed near I-
70. The shortwave that will be fueling the showers early Friday
along the front is approaching from South Dakota/N Nebraska. The
relatively weak wave will have limited low level moisture and
instability to work with, so we reduced the chance PoPs in our
southeast to slight chance 20%. We also limited the area to S of I-
70 and mainly in the morning.
Cool high pressure will be arriving Friday afternoon behind the cold
front. Breezy north winds of 10 to 20 mph will usher in 850 mb temps
down around 4C. High temps on Friday will be about 15 deg cooler
than Thurs, with readings mainly in the mid 60s. The wind add some
fall chill to the air, along with a lack of sunshine for most of the
day.
The cool conditions will continue on Saturday as the surface ridge
axis and cold pool pass across and eventually southeast of Illinois.
Highs will reach into the upper 60s with the help of sunshine, and
lighter winds. On Sunday, the surface ridge will pull farther away
to the east, setting the stage for southerly return flow and a
warming trend. Highs will climb well above normal on Sunday, with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80. The warmer temps will be west
of I-55, where the mid-level thermal ridge will enter Illinois on
Sunday.
The next cold front is projected to push across Illinois early
Monday morning. It will be moisture starved over Illinois, with the
best forcing for precip remaining closer to the surface low in N
Wisconsin and Michigan. The front appears to get more support from
the heat of the day in the afternoon over Indiana, and we kept a
narrow channel of slight chance PoPs east of Champaign to Mattoon.
A brief cool down will occur behind that front, with highs on
Tuesday around 70. The GFS quickly brings another cold front across
IL Tuesday night, and a small surface low and cold front into NW IL
Wed night/Thurs. The ECMWF keeps high pressure in place across IL
until a low arrives Thursday afternoon. Will keep a dry forecast
Tues-Thurs going for now, as each of the potential waves are showing
limited moisture availability. Temps will climb above normal for
Wed and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
Keeping the VFR forecast for now. SCT low/BKN high through the
afternoon with southwesterly winds gusting to 20kts at times ahead
of the approaching front. VCSH mention this evening...losing even
the mention after loss of day time heating. Better chance for
showers and thunderstorms to the north, showers at ILX terminals
will have a large diurnal component. HRRR is still somewhat bkn
with depiction of precip. Will update as necessary, but confidence
is not high enough to warrant a predominant mention at this point.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
303 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL/NWRN
IN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INCREASING SLWY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. AS OF 1PM CDT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO 2
WHILE TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT UN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F FOR THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA. THE BIGGER
QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING
INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND +12C OVER
THE REGION...WHILE THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS ARND 500 J/KG
OF CAPE INVOF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA/NWRN MO.
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INITIALIZATION AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ON
TRACK...SO...HAVE TRENDED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT STEADILY TRACKS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PCPN REACHING THE RFD AREA BTWN 3-
5PM AND THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA ARND 5-6PM WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN OF ARND 1 TO 2
HRS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO...POSSIBLY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLD
SHRA. AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...GIVING THE LIMITED DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AND NO REASON TO SEE WHY THERE WOULD BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT TS WITH THE
SHRA...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SOME TS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING
WILL BE LOCATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN
INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 05-06Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME TRAILING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY DURG THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VEER TO NLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 3 MB/3 HR AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE TRUE COOLER AIR WILL NOT
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL WARMING WILL BE
LESS THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FOR COMPARISON...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORNING LOW
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ARND 30 DEGREES...WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES AT
THE MOST.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
233 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A GOOD WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SATURDAY...AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...AS THIS
SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTS ITSELF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 925 AND 850 MB ARE PROGGED
TO REACH UP AROUND 18-19 DEGREES C AND 15-16 DEGREES C BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
A EVEN A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SHIFT OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY
MONDAY...AND AS IT DOES SO...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE DECENTLY MILD ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE COOLER AIRMASS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN REACH INTO THE 70S...BEFORE CONDITIONS COOL DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...BUT SEASONAL AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTN.
* TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
* TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER THIS EVE.
* LOW CIGS/MVFR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF KMSP OVER WESTERN WI AT MIDDAY...
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS IOWA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING MODESTLY GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
EASTERN WI/LM AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTAL
TROUGH. WINDS 220-240 DEG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUTS
NEAR 20 KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING
NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
ROUGHLY 02Z AT RFD...03-04Z ACROSS CHI TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME
NORTH AND BREEZY EARLY FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY JUST PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD INTO AREA TOWARD
EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED VERY PERSISTENT IN DEPICTING
A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING RFD
BY 21-22Z...AND CHICAGO TERMINALS BY ROUGHLY 23Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY THOUGH
LIKELY ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE LINE
GIVEN TOPS 300-350. THOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LOW...HAVE
INDICATED A VCTS IN TERMINALS TO CONVEY THE PICTURE.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH IN SHRA TIMING...MEDIUM-LOW IN TSRA COVERAGE.
* HIGH IN MVFR CIG TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WIND.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... VFR. BREEZY SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS TURNING BREEZY NW.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BREEZY NW.
&&
.MARINE...
317 AM CDT
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LAKE AS
WIND DIRECTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER THE COMING WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE
LOW TODAY...THEN NORTH WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN EASE AND VEER NORTHEASTERLY. EXPECT WAVES TO
INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS QUICKLY OVER
THE LAKE EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
LOWS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH CANADA NEXT WEEK. EACH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THEM THEN BACK TO NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THEM. LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME ON LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...5 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
233 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL/NWRN
IN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INCREASING SLWY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. AS OF 1PM CDT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO 2
WHILE TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT UN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F FOR THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA. THE BIGGER
QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING
INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND +12C OVER
THE REGION...WHILE THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS ARND 500 J/KG
OF CAPE INVOF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA/NWRN MO.
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INITIALIZATION AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ON
TRACK...SO...HAVE TRENDED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT STEADILY TRACKS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PCPN REACHING THE RFD AREA BTWN 3-
5PM AND THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA ARND 5-6PM WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN OF ARND 1 TO 2
HRS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO...POSSIBLY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLD
SHRA. AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...GIVING THE LIMITED DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AND NO REASON TO SEE WHY THERE WOULD BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT TS WITH THE
SHRA...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SOME TS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING
WILL BE LOCATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN
INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 05-06Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME TRAILING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY DURG THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VEER TO NLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 3 MB/3 HR AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE TRUE COOLER AIR WILL NOT
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL WARMING WILL BE
LESS THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FOR COMPARISON...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORNING LOW
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ARND 30 DEGREES...WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES AT
THE MOST.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
233 PM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS AND A COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A GOOD WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SATURDAY...AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...AS THIS
SURFACE RIDGE ORIENTS ITSELF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY SUNDAY AS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA. THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 925 AND 850 MB ARE PROGGED
TO REACH UP AROUND 18-19 DEGREES C AND 15-16 DEGREES C BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY...RESPECTIVELY. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
A EVEN A FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER CANADA WILL SHIFT OVER THE HUDSON BAY BY
MONDAY...AND AS IT DOES SO...WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY REMAIN NORTHEAST OF
THE MUCH OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE DECENTLY MILD ON MONDAY IN SPITE OF
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE COOLER AIRMASS DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY
AGAIN REACH INTO THE 70S...BEFORE CONDITIONS COOL DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...BUT SEASONAL AS
WEATHER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTN.
* TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
* TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER THIS EVE.
* LOW CIGS/MVFR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF KMSP OVER WESTERN WI AT MIDDAY...
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS IOWA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING MODESTLY GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
EASTERN WI/LM AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTAL
TROUGH. WINDS 220-240 DEG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUTS
NEAR 20 KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING
NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
ROUGHLY 02Z AT RFD...03-04Z ACROSS CHI TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME
NORTH AND BREEZY EARLY FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY JUST PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD INTO AREA TOWARD
EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED VERY PERSISTENT IN DEPICTING
A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING RFD
BY 21-22Z...AND CHICAGO TERMINALS BY ROUGHLY 23Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY THOUGH
LIKELY ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE LINE
GIVEN TOPS 300-350. THOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LOW...HAVE
INDICATED A VCTS IN TERMINALS TO CONVEY THE PICTURE.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH IN SHRA TIMING...MEDIUM-LOW IN TSRA COVERAGE.
* HIGH IN MVFR CIG TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WIND.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... VFR. BREEZY SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS TURNING BREEZY NW.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BREEZY NW.
&&
.MARINE...
317 AM CDT
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LAKE AS
WIND DIRECTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER THE COMING WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE
LOW TODAY...THEN NORTH WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN EASE AND VEER NORTHEASTERLY. EXPECT WAVES TO
INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS QUICKLY OVER
THE LAKE EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
LOWS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH CANADA NEXT WEEK. EACH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THEM THEN BACK TO NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THEM. LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME ON LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...5 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
144 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...
143 PM CDT
THROUGH FRIDAY...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IL/NWRN
IN.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INCREASING SLWY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION. AS OF 1PM CDT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO CREEP UP ANOTHER DEGREE TO 2
WHILE TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT UN THE UPPER 70S OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80F FOR THE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO...THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND
WARMTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO SUPPORT SHRA/TSRA. THE BIGGER
QUESTION MARK WILL BE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY. LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING
INDICATE RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPS ARND +12C OVER
THE REGION...WHILE THE LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS ARND 500 J/KG
OF CAPE INVOF THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL IA/NWRN MO.
HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND IT APPEARS TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE INITIALIZATION AND NEAR TERM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ON
TRACK...SO...HAVE TRENDED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR
THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT STEADILY TRACKS TO
THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PCPN REACHING THE RFD AREA BTWN 3-
5PM AND THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING EAST...REACHING THE ROCKFORD METRO
AREA ARND 5-6PM WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN OF ARND 1 TO 2
HRS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO...POSSIBLY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISOLD
SHRA. AS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...GIVING THE LIMITED DEEP
LAYER INSTABILITY UPSTREAM AND NO REASON TO SEE WHY THERE WOULD BE
ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FEEL THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT TS WITH THE
SHRA...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SOME TS POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INVOF THE COLD FRONT WHERE THE GREATEST FORCING
WILL BE LOCATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE NWRN
INDIANA COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY 05-06Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME TRAILING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NWLY DURG THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEN VEER TO NLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE RISES
ON THE ORDER OF 3 MB/3 HR AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD MAKE FOR QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THE TRUE COOLER AIR WILL NOT
FILTER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY MILD...IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...BUT
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL WARMING WILL BE
LESS THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S. FOR COMPARISON...THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORNING LOW
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE ARND 30 DEGREES...WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE 10 DEGREES AT
THE MOST.
KREIN
&&
.LONG TERM...
317 AM CDT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA. MOS SUGGESTS SKIES
WILL CLEAR TOWARD SUNSET FRIDAY AND THIS IS THE TREND I HAVE IN THE
GRIDS...BUT AM WORRIED THAT THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE COULD RESULT IN AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA REMAINING SOCKED IN FRIDAY NIGHT. WHERE
SKIES CLEAR TEMPS SHOULD TANK INTO THE 40S...CONVERSELY ANYWHERE
STRATUS LINGERS LOOK FOR TEMPS TO BE HELD UP IN THE UPPER 40S OR LOW
50S. GIVEN THE STRATUS POTENTIAL NUDGED LOWS A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE.
ANY LINGERING STRATUS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION...ALBEIT WEAK...COMMENCES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING
ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS SATURDAY TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S.
OVER THE PACIFIC THIS MORNING...HURRICANE OHO HAS BEGUN THE
TRANSITION TO EXTRA TROPICAL AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHWARD. GFS/ECMWF
STRENGTHEN THE POST TROPICAL REMNANT OF OHO INTO A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL STORM AS IT MERGES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING
AROUND THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW. A PORTION OF THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
REINCARNATION OF OHO IS PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA THIS WEEKEND...DEEPENING TO AN INTENSE CYCLONE AS IT NEARS
JAMES BAY ON SUNDAY. THE RESULT LOCALLY WILL BE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AN IMPRESSIVE BLAST OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW 925MB TEMPS WARMING
TO AROUND +20C BY 00Z MONDAY (SUNDAY EVENING) WHICH SPC`S SOUNDING
CLIMO TOOL SUGGESTS IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND NEARING RECORD
VALUES FOR MID OCTOBER. 925MB TEMPS WEDNESDAY AROUND 17.5C ALLOWED
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 80S...SO WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND GOOD
MIXING SUNDAY ALONG WITH 925MB TEMPS POTENTIALLY 2-3C WARMER AM
THINKING WE STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF REACHING 80F. AFTER COORDINATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY TO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND THIS COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE IF 925MB DO
INDEED REACH 20C AS CURRENTLY PROGGED.
SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS PROBABLY NOT
DROPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME AREAS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE HIGHS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...BUT COLDER AIR COULD LAG BEHIND THE FRONT A BIT AND GIVEN
THE WARM START TO THE DAY HIGHS MONDAY COULD ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE
70S. WE START TO SEE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
NEXT WEEK...BUT THEY AGREE WITH GENERAL PATTERN OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW WITH ALTERNATING BOUTS OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND BRIEF SHARP
COOL DOWN...THOUGH ON THE WHOLE TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS WITH MUCH BELOW AVERAGE PRECIP.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTN.
* TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
* TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATER THIS EVE.
* LOW CIGS/MVFR LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF KMSP OVER WESTERN WI AT MIDDAY...
WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST ACROSS IOWA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING MODESTLY GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
EASTERN WI/LM AND TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONTAL
TROUGH. WINDS 220-240 DEG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUTS
NEAR 20 KTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING
NEAR THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES WITH WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
ROUGHLY 02Z AT RFD...03-04Z ACROSS CHI TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME
NORTH AND BREEZY EARLY FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EXPECTED
DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY JUST PATCHY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD INTO AREA TOWARD
EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED VERY PERSISTENT IN DEPICTING
A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING RFD
BY 21-22Z...AND CHICAGO TERMINALS BY ROUGHLY 23Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FAIRLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY THOUGH
LIKELY ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE LINE
GIVEN TOPS 300-350. THOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LOW...HAVE
INDICATED A VCTS IN TERMINALS TO CONVEY THE PICTURE.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH IN SHRA TIMING...MEDIUM-LOW IN TSRA COVERAGE.
* HIGH IN MVFR CIG TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NE WIND.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... VFR. BREEZY SW WIND.
MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS TURNING BREEZY NW.
TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WIND.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY TURNING BREEZY NW.
&&
.MARINE...
317 AM CDT
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE LAKE AS
WIND DIRECTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY OVER THE COMING WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE
LOW TODAY...THEN NORTH WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 KT
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN EASE AND VEER NORTHEASTERLY. EXPECT WAVES TO
INCREASE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WITH AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS QUICKLY OVER
THE LAKE EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF
LOWS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH CANADA NEXT WEEK. EACH WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THEM THEN BACK TO NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THEM. LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME ON LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
KMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...5 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1259 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
A cold front is slowly approaching the region from the NW, and is
expected to bring showers northwest of the Illinois River Valley
later this evening. In the meantime, temperatures are expected to
get into the lower 80s by this afternoon. Partly cloudy skies and
south/southwesterly winds will continue throughout the day.
Forecast is going well and no updates are anticipated at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
08z/3am surface analysis shows 1012mb low over eastern North
Dakota...with a cold front trailing into the Northern Rockies. The
low is progged to track into the Great Lakes later today...pulling
the front toward Illinois by tonight. With boundary remaining well
to the W/NW through this afternoon, ample sunshine and gusty
southwesterly winds will push high temperatures into the lower 80s.
Will maintain a dry forecast through mid-afternoon, then will
introduce low chance PoPs along/northwest of a Rushville to
Bloomington line after 21z/4pm as the front approaches from the
northwest.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
Cold front will be interacting with an unseasonably warm/moist
airmass as it arrives across central Illinois tonight, with forecast
soundings indicating precipitable water values two standard
deviations above normal for this time of year at around 1.40.
Despite the impressive moisture...areal coverage of precip will
likely be limited due to lack of strong upper-level support. One
well defined short-wave currently over the Dakotas will track
eastward into the Great Lakes later today and will remain well north
of central Illinois. Meanwhile...a second wave noted on water vapor
over Montana will drop southeastward into the Plains and will stay
largely W/SW of the area tonight into Friday. As a
result...synoptic forcing never properly coincides with low-level
convergence along the boundary to produce a widespread rain event.
Instead...think only scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop along the front. As such...have reduced PoPs into the
chance category for tonight. Front will drop into the Ohio River
Valley on Friday; however, its southward progress may be held up a
bit by the Montana short-wave digging into the Plains/Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Have therefore opted to maintain low
chance PoPs across the far SE CWA into the afternoon. Main story
will be the considerably cooler weather with afternoon highs
remaining in the 60s.
High pressure will provide chilly conditions with lows in the middle
40s Friday night, but a marked warming trend will develop over the
weekend as it quickly shifts off to the east. In fact, both the GFS
and ECMWF show 850mb temps rising into the 16-18C range by
Sunday...which is even warmer than readings will reach today. As a
result...have boosted highs into the upper 70s and lower 80s on
Sunday. After that, a cold front will sweep through the area on
Monday accompanied by little more than a few clouds and a shift in
the wind. Models bring a shot of cooler air into the region behind
the front, resulting in highs dropping back into the upper 60s/lower
70s by Tuesday: however, any significantly cooler airmass will
remain well to the north through the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
Keeping the VFR forecast for now. SCT low/BKN high through the
afternoon with southwesterly winds gusting to 20kts at times ahead
of the approaching front. VCSH mention this evening...losing even
the mention after loss of day time heating. Better chance for
showers and thunderstorms to the north, showers at ILX terminals
will have a large diurnal component. HRRR is still somewhat bkn
with depiction of precip. Will update as necessary, but confidence
is not high enough to warrant a predominant mention at this point.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1238 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL THE BE THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL CROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 03Z SHOWS MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COOL FRONT ALONG A PREFONTAL TROUGH OVER WESTERN IA AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA. ALOFT...H850 ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER
IOWA WITH A NOSE OF +10C DEW POINTS LINED UP FROM EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TO NEAR THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY FEEDING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
SFC WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. A WEAK LINE OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN ATTEMPTING TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE DRY OVER MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WHERE
BETTER SATURATION OCCURS NEARER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT. MESO HRRR AND SYNOPTIC NAM/GFS
MODELS BOTH SUGGEST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PSBL ISO THUNDER
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IA MN BORDER BETWEEN 09-18Z THIS MORNING. FARTHER
SOUTH...LESSER CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE
BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL
OUTRUN THE DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE MILD
ONCE AGAIN AS H850 TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TEENS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE HIGHS NEAR THE
80 DEGREE MARK FROM SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WITH
HIGHS NEAR 70 ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH...IT WILL
FEEL COOLER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH...WHILE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST BY 4 PM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND IN THE EARLY EVENING
SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DECLINE AT AROUND HALF AN INCH PER
MONTH THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS LONG TERM FCST PERIOD IS REFLECTIVE OF
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP AS WE EFFECTIVELY HAVE ABOUT ZERO
PRECIP CHANCES FROM FRI THROUGH NEXT WED. FCST DETAILS FOCUS
PRIMARILY ON TEMPERATURE DETAILS.
FRIDAY...
AT 06Z THU...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PICKING UP MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT
ONSHORE TO BRITISH COLUMBIA ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. MEANWHILE...AN
UPPER LOW IS CHURNING WEST OF THE HUDSON BAY. AN ATTENDANT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PICKING UP THE BRITISH COLUMBIA MOISTURE
ALOFT AND WILL DRAG IT THROUGH IA AS THE TROUGH AXIS/UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY...RESULTING IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THESE CLOUDS...HAVE
DROPPED TEMPS ONE OR TWO DEGREES. NEAR THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH IOWA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR WEST ALL
DAY...CAA WILL BE TAKING PLACE WITH MODELS KEEPING 850 MB TEMPS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS WEEKEND...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PASSES EAST OF IOWA SATURDAY
MORNING...STRONG WAA WILL BE PUMPING INTO IOWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A DECENTLY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL COME CRASHING
TOWARDS IOWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS
WILL START AROUND 10C SAT AM...INCREASE TO 15C BY SAT PM...AND TO
19C BY SUN PM. MODELS KEYING ON UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SATURDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER HIGH.
SUNDAY HOWEVER...SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE. SO HAVE KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN
A FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY AND INCREASED THEM A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE ROCKIES...BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BACK TO THE REGION. THIS WILL DROP MAX TEMPS AROUND 10 OR SO
DEGREES VERSUS SUNDAY/S HIGHS. LONG RANGE MODELS NOW COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/PASSAGE OF HIGH. EURO HAS HELD THE
LINE WHILE THE USUALLY SLOWER GEM HAS SPED UP...AND THE USUALLY
OVERLY-FAST GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN. THIS HIGH SHOULD BE EAST OF DMX
CWA BY TUE AFTERNOON...BRINGING BACK THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND
WAA TO IOWA. TEMPS TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR MONDAY AND WITH INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN CAA...HAVE STUCK WITH THE COOL DOWN...FOLLOWED BY A
5 OR SO DEGREE TEMP INCREASE FOR TUE. MAJOR DWPT DEPRESSIONS WILL
NIX ANY PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW...MORE OR LESS...IS HINTED AT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE UNTIL CONFIDENCE CAN INCREASE
ENOUGH TO WHERE MODIFYING FCST WOULD ADD VALUE TO IT.
&&
.AVIATION...08/18Z
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
PRIMARY CONCERN DURING TAF PERIOD WILL BE MVFR/IFR CLOUDS MOVING
IN FROM MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CURRENT SOUTHERLY
EXTENT AROUND THE TWIN CITIES AND EXTENDING WSW FORM THERE. AM
ANTICIPATING MVFR CIGS INTO MCW AND ALO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
STICKING AROUND UNTIL MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOULD MIXING SUBSIDE ENOUGH OVERNIGHT...MVFR CIGS MAY
LOWER INTO OR NEAR IFR AT MCW AND ALO...THOUGH 10-14KT EXPECTED
WINDS MAY PREVENT THAT SCENARIO. LESSER CHANCES FOR
FOD...DSM...AND OTM TO REALIZE MVFR CIGS AND HAVE KEPT IT VFR FOR
THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 20-22KTS...WHICH WILL ALSO
SUBSIDE TOMORROW MORNING AS HIGH PUSHES IN.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...CURTIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
305 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE PCPN CHANCES FOR
TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRONGEST 500 MB 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 12Z WERE CENTERED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RADAR ECHOES OUT OF A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK SPREADING SEWD.
RECENT HRRR AND RAP13 MODEL RUNS SHOW LIGHT PCPN SPREADING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. THINK
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...0.02 INCHES OR LESS AT MOST SPOTS...
BUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DECIDED TO JUST GO WITH
AREAL COVERAGE WORDING. LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO END AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT EXIT THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY UP OVER MN
AND THE ERN DKTS SHOULD DROP DOWN INTO IA AND PARTS OF ERN NE
LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
WE EXPECT A MODERATELY THICK AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. LOOK FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID
OR UPPER 60S...BUT SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE IN WRN IOWA.
RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMP PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS 75 TO
80 IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND LOWER 80S WEST. THERE ARE HINTS THAT
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY MORNING SO
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THAT POTENTIAL. BOOSTED HIGHS A BIT FOR
SUNDAY WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BE MOVING IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE SEEMS
LIMITED AT THIS POINT SO KEPT POPS BELOW 10 PERCENT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS PERIOD MAINLY DRY. A FAIRLY STRONG PUSH
OF COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER OR MID 70S FOR MONDAY. FAIRLY FAST W/NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW...BUT THESE
SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH PCPN. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OFF THE BAJA
COAST MOVING UP TO CA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOCALLY...HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1242 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MINOT AND
BISMARCK ON THE EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND TRENDING/TIMING FOR ERODING OF CLOUDS. CLOUDS STILL
EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE JAMESTOWN AREA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR INDICATE LOW CLOUDS ERODING FROM WEST
TO EAST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED...ERODING IN
THE JAMES VALLEY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED LATEST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST WHERE SKIES WERE CLEARING. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST
APPEARS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR MORNING UPDATE WILL ADJUST LEADING EDGE
OF CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH COVERAGE ON THE WEST SIDE. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
NO MAJOR FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY`S
CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. EMBEDDED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SUBTLE SURFACE
REFLECTION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA GENERATING LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY WILL MISS MY
SOUTHWEST...NOT BY MUCH...IF MODELS ARE CORRECT SO KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY. LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WELL ADVERTISED BY MODELS THE PAST
24 HOURS.
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST AND ALL OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA NOW THROUGH 12-15Z BEFORE ERODING FROM WEST
TO EAST 15-19Z TODAY. THE SKY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH PERHAPS A FEW AREAS OF FAIR-WEATHER CU. NOT A BAD FALL DAY AT
ALL WITH FORECAST HIGHS MID 60S WEST TO MID 50S EAST...ALONG WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10-15 MPH.
RETURN FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 30S EAST TO LOWER 40S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
A WARMING TREND...WITH MANY LOCATIONS PUSHING INTO THE 80S BY
SATURDAY.
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE AND
AFFILIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA...BRINGING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...THOUGH THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WIND
POTENTIAL AS MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME IN LINE WITH BRINGING IN
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT (45-50 KTS) AND MIXING THEM DOWN. HAVE
STARTED THE TREND OF INCREASING WIND SPEEDS...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST...AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED ON SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.
COOLER...THOUGH STILL NEAR AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS IN A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD SURROUNDING A
SURFACE LOW CENTERED IN WISCONSIN. MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ERODE
FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUD SHIELD DID NOT REACH FAR WESTERN ND...SO
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK AND KISN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KMOT AND KBIS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND 18-
19Z...AND AT KJMS 22-24Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1254 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
TWO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY...1) MORE PESSIMISM WITH DEGREE
OF CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH/EAST...AND 2) ADDITION OF A BIT STRONGER PRECIP MENTION
ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTH.
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA AT THIS
POINT IN THE MORNING...AS MAIN UPPER WAVE IS NOW PUSHING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER UPSTREAM JET STREAK DIGGING
ACROSS MONTANA...AND THIS IMPULSE WILL PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS LINKS THE TWO FEATURES...AND HAVE SEEN A SCATTERING
OF VERY LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. FAIRLY UNLIKELY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH
A FAIR DEGREE OF DRYING BELOW THE MID LAYER. SOME OF THIS WILL
LIKELY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SLIPPING SOUTHWARD. BETTER UPPER FORCING LOOKS TO TREND
JUST A BIT SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND GIVEN THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF DRYING BELOW THE MID
DECK...WILL FOREGO ADDING IN ANY MENTIONABLE LATER DAY/EARLY
EVENING POPS TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND PROGRESSION HAS BEEN TO ENCROACH INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID MORNING. FLOW BELOW INVERSION
STARTS TO TAKE ON MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND RAP/NAM/HRRR
INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY DISTINCT LAYER OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
BECOME A STRONGER FEATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY...AND PERHAPS WELL INTO THE EVENING EAST OF I 29.
STILL LOOKING AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND IN MIXED LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON...SO CURRENT WIND GUSTS EXPECTATIONS ON TRACK. WITH
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS...DID NOTCH BACK HIGH TEMPS A BIT...OR WORK IN
A STEADYING TO SLIGHT FALL ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MANY LOCATIONS MIXING BEHIND BOUNDARY AND SHOULD
APPROACH HIGHS PRIOR TO ADVANCE OF STRATUS FIELD FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
AS THE FRONT FINISHES MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE AREA NEXT FEW
HOURS...IT IS STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE LINGERING INSTABILITY...AND WITH A FEW
NARROW BANDS OF MID CLOUDS/POSSIBLY ACCAS MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN/MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE HRRR KEEPS
TRYING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY BUT IT LOOKS MORE LIKE
ISOLATED IF ANYTHING. THIS SHOULD ALL BE OUT BY 12Z/7 AM CDT.
THE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTING ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
COULD STILL BRING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST...AND
THIS COULD INCLUDE THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR AREA DURING THE
DAY...SO HAVE LEFT THE SMALL POPS IN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CASE FOR
GOING WITH JUST SPRINKLES. THE CLOUD DECK OF COURSE WILL REACH
SOMEWHAT FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA BEFORE DECENT
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH THE BREEZY CATEGORY TODAY WITH WINDS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER THAN WEST. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST...OR NOT TOO MUCH
WARMING FROM THE VERY MILD EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.
THE CLEARING TONIGHT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DECREASING WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOW 40S SOUTH...AGAIN HOLDING
ABOVE FROSTY LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
RATHER QUIET WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO
SURPASS SEASONAL NORMAL BY 10 OR MORE DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...WITH
VERY BALMY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ONLY REASONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL ON SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ZIPS THROUGH THE REGION. A
SYSTEM CUT-OFF FROM GOM MOISTURE...IT WILL HAVE TO RELY SOLELY ON
MOISTURE IT CAN DRAG ACROSS THE ROCKIES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
FOR NOW...PREFER THE DRIER GFS OVER THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS DO
SUGGEST VERY LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SD
INTO CENTRAL MN INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIKELY THE BIG STORY FOR
MONDAY WILL BE VERY BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED
WINDS PUSH 20-30 MPH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...OCCASIONAL
GUSTS COULD PUSH 40 TO 45 MPH AS WE QUICKLY MIX OUT MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS IN THAT PORTION OF THE FCST.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK...A CONTINUED WARM PATTERN
WILL PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CYCLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLOWLY DISSIPATING ON THE BACK EDGE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MOST CERTAIN
FOR IMPACTS AT KHON IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM...AND KFSD FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. KSUX WOULD APPEAR TO BE JUST
OUTSIDE A MORE CERTAIN TRAJECTORY...AND HAVE KEPT LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED AT THIS TIME FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY
ATTAIN AROUND 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...CHAPMAN