Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/07/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS TUCSON AZ
1004 AM MST MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AFTER A
FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF TUCSON
TODAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES DIRECTLY INTO THE AREA...MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS...AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE TUCSON MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF TUCSON IN PINAL
COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SO FAR. THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...AND WAS
PROGGED TO EJECT EASTWARD TO A POSITION CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL
AZ BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WAS STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE
TODAY. NONETHELESS...THE SHEAR PROFILE AND CAPE VALUES WERE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPPORTING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS TODAY. THIS DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS
MORNING...SO PLEASE REFERENCE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION IN
THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETIALS. OTHERWISE...NO UPDATES NECESSARY AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/18Z.
SCT TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS 6-10 KFT WITH ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA FROM KTUS
AND KOLS EAST THRU 05/16Z. EAST WINDS 5-15 KTS ACROSS
COCHISE...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES WITH SOUTH WIND TO 10 KTS
ELSEWHERE. AFT 05/16Z SCT-BKN 6-10 KFT AND ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA
WITH GREATEST CHANCES FROM EAST OF KTUS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP AFT 05/16Z AT 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN MONDAY
THEN LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN
MODERATING LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE...THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING HAS PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 1 INCH. DECENT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR FOR OUR AREA WITH BRN AT
52 M^2/S^2. THE CURRENT CONVECTION IS ALONG A GOOD SHEAR AXIS
THROUGH SANTA CRUZ AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTIES...NORTHWARD THROUGH
PINAL AND GILA COUNTIES. THESE FACTORS WOULD ARGUE FOR A BUSIER DAY
THROUGH EASTERN PIMA COUNTY AND THE GREATER TUCSON AREA THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. HOWEVER...THE HRRR ROTATES (WE BELIEVE
CORRECTLY) THIS MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR AREA INTO GRAHAM COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST CIRA LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY FOR 700-500 HPA IS PUSHING DRIER AIR ABOVE H7 IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THIS IS HINTED AT BY THE MORNING SOUNDING
WHERE THERE ARE SPIKES REPRESENTING THE ONSET OF THIS DRYING SHOWING
UP NEAR H7 AND H6. SO WE ARE STANDING PAT FOR NOW WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR CONVECTION IN THE TUCSON METRO
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
SWODY1 BY SPC...HOWEVER WE WOULD EMPHASIZE AREAS EAST AND NORTH OF
TUCSON FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ESPECIALLY GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PINAL COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALL THE PIECES ARE IN PLACE...NOW
IT`S JUST A TIMING ISSUE. THE STRONG LOW HAS MADE IT`S WAY INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND HAS LOST MOST OF IT`S HIGHER
LATITUDE SUPPORT AS EXPECTED. WE WILL SEE A SLOW WOBBLE EASTWARD
TODAY WITH A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE H7 AND LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUING TO IMPORT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE
CONDITIONAL RISK IS ELEVATED FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DECENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING MAY INHIBIT OVERALL COVERAGE FOR PART OF
THE AREA TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 3/4 AND 1 INCH IN
EASTERN AREAS...HOWEVER SOME TEMPORARY MID LEVEL DRYING WRAPPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TEND TO LIMIT COVERAGE IN
CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING EASTERN PIMA COUNTY AND THE
GREATER TUCSON AREA. THE BEST COVERAGE COMES TOGETHER WITH THE
INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...INCLUDING
GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE COUNTIES.
AS THE LOW SLOWLY PUSHES TOWARD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE EVEN BETTER CONDITIONS FOR INCREASED
STORM COVERAGE. A POSSIBLE SWEET SPOT IN TIMING IS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHERE JET DYNAMICS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW...A LITTLE DAYTIME
HEATING...AND A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENT FIELD COME TOGETHER
FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR OUR PART OF THE
STATE.
THIS CUTOFF ACTUALLY BEGINS TO REACT TO THE STRONG RIDGE WEST OF THE
AREA LATER THIS WEEK. A SLOW DROP INTO NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST
MEXICO KEEPS IT AROUND FOR DAYS AND DAYS AS IT SLOWLY FILLS.
INTERESTING THAT BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE KEEPING IT IN PROXIMITY
THROUGH 240 HOURS. SO SLOW WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS REBOUND AND SOME
DRYING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS HANGING AROUND MAINLY MOUNTAIN AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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PREV DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
845 AM MST MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA. DECREASING MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION... STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN MORE OR LESS
IN PLACE OVER FAR SRN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...A LOOK AT THE 12Z
PLOT DATA INDICATED VIRTUALLY NO HEIGHT FALLS AT ALL ACROSS ARIZONA.
H5 HEIGHTS WERE DOWN TO 567DM NEAR THE LOW CENTER WITH VALUES AROUND
575DM IN CENTRAL AZ...AND WITH THIS MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL LOWER INTO THE 80S. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA...WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A MODEST DIFLUENT PROFILE ALOFT. WEAK
DISTURBANCES CONTINUED TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE MAIN LOW...HELPING TO
TRIGGER OCCASIONAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH THEN WOULD RACE
QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ONE SUCH AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS MOVED QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND INTO SRN GILA COUNTY WITHIN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AS OF 830 AM RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TO
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ AND AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE STORMS
THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. IN FACT...THE DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ISSUED BY SPC PUTS MUCH OF ARIZONA INCLUDING
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THERE IS
LESS OF A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND INTO SERN CA...GIVEN WEAKER WINDS ALOFT/FORCING AND LOWER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY VALUES...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY/WEATHER/POP TRENDS AND LOOK TO
BE IN GOOD SHAPE. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY CENTERED OVER
LOS ANGELES EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WE HAVE HAD A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE FIFTIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
REDEVELOPING PERSISTENTLY TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX IN A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT AREA...BUT THESE STORMS REMAIN WEAK AS CAPE IS VERY
LIMITED. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNDER STRONG UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER SONORA MEXICO...A SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS
CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THERE
IS A DECENT SHOT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA BY 12Z AND THEN INTO THE PHOENIX AREA AROUND 15Z THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LATER THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO BETWEEN 40-60 PERCENT
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TODAY FOR SOME ROTATING AND LONGER
LASTING ORGANIZED STORMS...SO ONCE THE COLDER MID LEVEL AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE MANAGE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
THOUGH STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
UNLESS WE GET TRAINING CELLS.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND DYNAMICALLY
INDUCED VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL START TO WANE
SOMEWHAT. WE WILL STILL HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECTING REDUCED COVERAGE. DAYTIME
HOURS TUESDAY IS LOOKING A BIT MORE INTERESTING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARIZONA AS MODEL GUIDANCE NOW BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
A RESULT...THE COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL END UP DRIFTING INTO WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO
BETWEEN MINUS 14-16C. AS LONG AS THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSOLATION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER GOOD
CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOWER THAN
TODAY DUE TO A DROP OFF IN WIND SHEAR...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW HAIL
PRODUCING STORMS DUE TO THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND HIGHER CAPE.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PICK UP SPEED ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW
CENTER MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INCREASING SUBSIDENT FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE EXITING
LOW WILL LIMIT ANY RESIDUAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. STARTING
THURSDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES RAPIDLY INCREASE HEIGHTS ALOFT
AND LOWER THAN 10 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL START OUT RELATIVELY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 80S TODAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ONCE THE UPPER
LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGING TAKES OVER LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGHS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY. LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL EASILY RETURN TO ABOVE NORMALS WITH SOME SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA LOWER DESERT HIGHS TOPPING 100
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
CA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET
STREAM WINDS...AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM MEXICO...WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT OF SEVERE SFC WIND GUSTS
AND POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL...MAINLY FROM 14Z THROUGH 20Z TODAY. CIGS
MAINLY 6 TO 8 THSD AGL. FROM 20Z MON TO 03Z TUE...THE CHANCE OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DECREASE...WITH CIGS LIFTING TO 8 TO 10 THSD
AGL.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CA TODAY.
THROUGH 20Z MON...CIGS BECOMING 8 TO 10 THSD AGL WITH ISOLATED SHWRS
AND TSTMS. FROM 20Z MON THROUGH 03Z TUE. CLDS BECOMING SCT TO BKN 8
TO 10 THSD AGL WITH ISOLD SHWRS. GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10
KNOTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. GENERALLY LIGHT
WIND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE...
EXCEPT NEAR 35 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
GOOD RECOVERY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS TUCSON AZ
530 AM MST MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AFTER A
FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF TUCSON
TODAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES DIRECTLY INTO THE AREA...MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS...AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE...THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING HAS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 1 INCH. DECENT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR FOR OUR AREA WITH BRN AT
52 M^2/S^2. THE CURRENT CONVECTION IS ALONG A GOOD SHEAR AXIS
THROUGH SANTA CRUZ AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTIES...NORTHWARD THROUGH
PINAL AND GILA COUNTIES. THESE FACTORS WOULD ARGUE FOR A BUSIER DAY
THROUGH EASTERN PIMA COUNTY AND THE GREATER TUCSON AREA THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. HOWEVER...THE HRRR ROTATES (WE BELIEVE
CORRECTLY) THIS MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR AREA INTO GRAHAM COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST CIRA LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY FOR 700-500 HPA IS PUSHING DRIER AIR ABOVE H7 IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THIS IS HINTED AT BY THE MORNING SOUNDING
WHERE THERE ARE SPIKES REPRESENTING THE ONSET OF THIS DRYING SHOWING
UP NEAR H7 AND H6. SO WE ARE STANDING PAT FOR NOW WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR CONVECTION IN THE TUCSON METRO
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
SWODY1 BY SPC...HOWEVER WE WOULD EMPHASIZE AREAS EAST AND NORTH OF
TUCSON FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ESPECIALLY GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PINAL COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALL THE PIECES ARE IN PLACE...NOW
IT`S JUST A TIMING ISSUE. THE STRONG LOW HAS MADE IT`S WAY INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND HAS LOST MOST OF IT`S HIGHER
LATITUDE SUPPORT AS EXPECTED. WE WILL SEE A SLOW WOBBLE EASTWARD
TODAY WITH A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE H7 AND LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUING TO IMPORT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE
CONDITIONAL RISK IS ELEVATED FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DECENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING MAY INHIBIT OVERALL COVERAGE FOR PART OF
THE AREA TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 3/4 AND 1 INCH IN
EASTERN AREAS...HOWEVER SOME TEMPORARY MID LEVEL DRYING WRAPPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TEND TO LIMIT COVERAGE IN
CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING EASTERN PIMA COUNTY AND THE
GREATER TUCSON AREA. THE BEST COVERAGE COMES TOGETHER WITH THE
INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...INCLUDING
GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE COUNTIES.
AS THE LOW SLOWLY PUSHES TOWARD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE EVEN BETTER CONDITIONS FOR INCREASED
STORM COVERAGE. A POSSIBLE SWEET SPOT IN TIMING IS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHERE JET DYNAMICS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW...A LITTLE DAYTIME
HEATING...AND A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENT FIELD COME TOGETHER
FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR OUR PART OF THE
STATE.
THIS CUTOFF ACTUALLY BEGINS TO REACT TO THE STRONG RIDGE WEST OF THE
AREA LATER THIS WEEK. A SLOW DROP INTO NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST
MEXICO KEEPS IT AROUND FOR DAYS AND DAYS AS IT SLOWLY FILLS.
INTERESTING THAT BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE KEEPING IT IN PROXIMITY
THROUGH 240 HOURS. SO SLOW WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS REBOUND AND SOME
DRYING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS HANGING AROUND MAINLY MOUNTAIN AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/12Z.
SCT TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS 6-10 KFT WITH ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA FROM KTUS
AND KOLS EAST THRU 05/16Z. EAST WINDS 5-15 KTS ACROSS
COCHISE...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES WITH SOUTH WIND TO 10 KTS
ELSEWHERE. AFT 05/16Z SCT-BKN 6-10 KFT AND ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA
WITH GREATEST CHANCES FROM EAST OF KTUS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP AFT 05/16Z AT 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN MONDAY
THEN LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN
MODERATING LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/RASMUSSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
305 AM MST MON OCT 5 2015
.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA. DECREASING MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY CENTERED OVER
LOS ANGELES EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WE HAVE HAD A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE FIFTIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
REDEVELOPING PERSISTENTLY TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX IN A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT AREA...BUT THESE STORMS REMAIN WEAK AS CAPE IS VERY
LIMITED. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNDER STRONG UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER SONORA MEXICO...A SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS
CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THERE
IS A DECENT SHOT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA BY 12Z AND THEN INTO THE PHOENIX AREA AROUND 15Z THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LATER THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO BETWEEN 40-60 PERCENT
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TODAY FOR SOME ROTATING AND LONGER
LASTING ORGANIZED STORMS...SO ONCE THE COLDER MID LEVEL AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE MANAGE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
THOUGH STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
UNLESS WE GET TRAINING CELLS.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND DYNAMICALLY
INDUCED VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL START TO WANE
SOMEWHAT. WE WILL STILL HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECTING REDUCED COVERAGE. DAYTIME
HOURS TUESDAY IS LOOKING A BIT MORE INTERESTING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARIZONA AS MODEL GUIDANCE NOW BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
A RESULT...THE COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL END UP DRIFTING INTO WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO
BETWEEN MINUS 14-16C. AS LONG AS THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSOLATION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER GOOD
CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOWER THAN
TODAY DUE TO A DROP OFF IN WIND SHEAR...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW HAIL
PRODUCING STORMS DUE TO THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND HIGHER CAPE.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PICK UP SPEED ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW
CENTER MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INCREASING SUBSIDENT FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE EXITING
LOW WILL LIMIT ANY RESIDUAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. STARTING
THURSDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES RAPIDLY INCREASE HEIGHTS ALOFT
AND LOWER THAN 10 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL START OUT RELATIVELY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 80S TODAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ONCE THE UPPER
LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGING TAKES OVER LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGHS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY. LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL EASILY RETURN TO ABOVE NORMALS WITH SOME SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA LOWER DESERT HIGHS TOPPING 100
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
CA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET
STREAM WINDS...AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM MEXICO...WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT OF SEVERE SFC WIND GUSTS
AND POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL...MAINLY FROM 14Z THROUGH 20Z TODAY. CIGS
MAINLY 6 TO 8 THSD AGL. FROM 20Z MON TO 03Z TUE...THE CHANCE OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DECREASE...WITH CIGS LIFTING TO 8 TO 10 THSD
AGL.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CA TODAY.
THROUGH 20Z MON...CIGS BECOMG 8 TO 10 THSD AGL WITH ISOLATED SHWRS
AND TSTMS. FROM 20Z MON THROUGH 03Z TUE. CLDS BECOMING SCT TO BKN 8
TO 10 THSD AGL WITH ISOLD SHWRS. GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10
KNOTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. GENERALLY LIGHT
WIND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE...
EXCEPT NEAR 35 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
GOOD RECOVERY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
249 AM MST MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA. DECREASING MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY CENTERED OVER
LOS ANGELES EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WE HAVE HAD A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE FIFTIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
REDEVELOPING PERSISTENTLY TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX IN A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT AREA...BUT THESE STORMS REMAIN WEAK AS CAPE IS VERY
LIMITED. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNDER STRONG UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER SONORA MEXICO...A SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS
CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THERE
IS A DECENT SHOT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA BY 12Z AND THEN INTO THE PHOENIX AREA AROUND 15Z THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LATER THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO BETWEEN 40-60 PERCENT
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TODAY FOR SOME ROTATING AND LONGER
LASTING ORGANIZED STORMS...SO ONCE THE COLDER MID LEVEL AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE MANAGE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
THOUGH STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
UNLESS WE GET TRAINING CELLS.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND DYNAMICALLY
INDUCED VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL START TO WANE
SOMEWHAT. WE WILL STILL HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECTING REDUCED COVERAGE. DAYTIME
HOURS TUESDAY IS LOOKING A BIT MORE INTERESTING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARIZONA AS MODEL GUIDANCE NOW BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
A RESULT...THE COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL END UP DRIFTING INTO WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO
BETWEEN MINUS 14-16C. AS LONG AS THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSOLATION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER GOOD
CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOWER THAN
TODAY DUE TO A DROP OFF IN WIND SHEAR...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW HAIL
PRODUCING STORMS DUE TO THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND HIGHER CAPE.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PICK UP SPEED ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW
CENTER MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INCREASING SUBSIDENT FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE EXITING
LOW WILL LIMIT ANY RESIDUAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. STARTING
THURSDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES RAPIDLY INCREASE HEIGHTS ALOFT
AND LOWER THAN 10 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL START OUT RELATIVELY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 80S TODAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ONCE THE UPPER
LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGING TAKES OVER LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGHS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY. LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL EASILY RETURN TO ABOVE NORMALS WITH SOME SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA LOWER DESERT HIGHS TOPPING 100
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY AOA 8000FT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AREA-WIDE AFFECTING ALL
TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS ABATE
OVERNIGHT...PICKING UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY RETURN TO LOWER DESERTS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE NEAR KPHX/KIWA/KSDL AFTER 15Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. LOWER CIGS
ALSO RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO LOCALLY DROP FOR PERIODS
OF TIME TO 5000FT IN HEAVY SHOWERS/STRONGER STORMS. WIND PROFILES
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH HAIL LIKELY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION...MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...SO LINGERING
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FIRE DISTRICTS
DURING THROUGH THURSDAY. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 20S AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
DRIER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MAIN STORY OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS WAS THE TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FORMING ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE PINALENOS...THEN MOVING NNE ACROSS SAFFORD AND
THATCHER. THIS EVENT LASTED ABOUT 3 HOURS...OR FROM ABOUT 330 PM TO
630 PM. LOOKING BACK AT RADAR I COUNTED...AT THE MINIMUM...SIX
STORMS MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE MOSTLY BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH RANGE. ONE SITE RECORDED AT TEMPERATURE DROP OF 14 DEGREES IN 5
MINUTES WITH THE INITIAL SET OF STORMS. OTHER STORM AREAS TODAY
INCLUDED NE COCHISE COUNTY...PARTS OF GREENLEE COUNTY...AND THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR TUCSON. OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA STORMS WERE
OCCURRING IN GILA COUNTY AND ACROSS THE NM BOOT AREA. ALL OF THESE
STORMS IN THE BEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AREA IN ADVANCE OF STRONG
UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEAR LOS ANGELES THIS EVENING.
AFTER ABOUT AN HOUR RESPITE...TRAINING STORMS RESTARTED FROM SAFFORD
NORTHWEST TO BYLAS. THESE WERE NOW MOVING DUE N INSTEAD OF NNE AS
THE FIRST SET WAS BUT THEY DIDN`T LAST TOO LONG. ADDED PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO THE SAFFORD VALLEY AREA OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BASED MOST OF THE UPDATE ON WHAT THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN SHOWING. THUS EXPECT MOSTLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER...SOME WHICH MAY TRAIN ACROSS ERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE TRICKY PART OF THIS FORECAST IS THAT
THE HRRR IS DEVELOPING A BAND OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND MOVING THEM QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS SANTA
CRUZ/PIMA COUNTIES NORTH INTO PINAL AND MARICOPA COUNTIES BETWEEN 4-
6 AM. MIGHT BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WHICH AT THIS TIME IS RATHER HARD TO PICK
OUT ON THE LAYERED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...APPROACHING THE AREA.
INCREASED ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE SO CAL UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/00Z. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS 6-10 KFT
WITH ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA FROM KTUS AND KOLS EAST THRU 05/16Z. EAST
WINDS 5-15 KTS ACROSS COCHISE...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES WITH
SOUTH WIND TO 10 KTS ELSEWHERE. AFT 05/16Z SCT-BKN 6-10 KFT AND
ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WITH GREATEST CHANCES FROM KTUS EASTWARD.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AFT 05/16Z AT 12-18 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN MONDAY
THEN LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN
MODERATING LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO
ARIZONA BY TUESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND BRING WARMER DRY WEATHER...WITH VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED AT MID-EVENING...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTH PART OF THE INLAND EMPIRE TO CAJON
PASS. ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE WAS DETECTED HERE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS ANOTHER VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW WAS APPROACHING THE COAST...AND THAT GAVE ONE-
QUARTER TO NEAR ONE-HALF INCH IN COASTAL PARTS OF SANTA BARBARA AND
VENTURA COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PASSAGE OF THE VORT LOBE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
CLOUD-TOP COOLING TO HELP ENHANCE THE PRECIP...AND BOTH HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF SHOW SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN ORANGE COUNTY...WESTERN
SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND PARTS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OVER ONE INCH...THOUGH WITH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
PRECIP...AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY OVER SHORT DISTANCES...SO THE
AVERAGE SHOULD BE ONE-HALF INCH OR A LITTLE LESS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL STREET FLOODING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...THOUGH NAM/GFS SHOW CAPE
VALUES TOO LOW FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SO MOST LIKELY THAT WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. BY AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
WILL BE OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW STARTS TO EXIT...AND INSTABILITY
DECREASES.
THAT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT
SOUTH AS THE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MINIMAL
MARINE LAYER STRATUS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE GRADUALLY...WITH WIDESPREAD 90S IN THE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY...AND REACHING SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN 5 MILES OF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY. THE PATTERN LOOKS STABLE...SO THE HEAT SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
050300Z...SCT-BKN25-035 WITH MERGING LYRS TO 12000 FT MSL WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS LOWERING TO
015-020 AND VIS 1-3SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...MTNS OBSCD IN CLOUDS AND SHRA THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS.
DESERTS...SCT-BKN080-100 THROUGH MONDAY. WEST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH AND BLO MOUNTAIN PASSES INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
800 PM...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS TO
20 KT IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST
WINDS 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
935 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRES TROF SPANNING THE LENGTH OF THE ERN SEABOARD HAS PUSHED
INTO S FL WITH A NRLY H100-H85 WIND SURGE IN ITS WAKE. ISOLD SHRAS
FORMING OVER THE GULFSTREAM JUST BEHIND THE TROF AXIS DUE TO LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL HEATING...BUT FEW OF THESE ARE MAKING IT TO
THE COAST. OTHER THAN LCL MID LVL SCT-BKN DECKS ALONG THE COAST S OF
THE CAPE IN THE VCNTY OF THE TROF...SKIES OVER LAND HAVE CLEARED
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF ENHANCED H100-H70 MOISTURE OFF
THE NE FL COAST THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NRLY FLOW THAT WILL WORK
ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST OVERNIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR COASTAL SHRAS S OF
THE CAPE LOOKS GOOD. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
NRLY WINDS AND MIN TEMPS IN THE M/U60S.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 08/00Z
SFC WNDS: THRU 07/04...N/NE 7-11KTS BCMG N/NW 4-6KTS...CONTG THRU
07/14Z. AFT 07/14Z...N/NE 7-11KTS.
VSBYS/WX/CIGS: AREAS CIGS FL040-060...OCNL PDS MVFR CIGS BTWN
FL020-030.
&&
.MARINE...
NRLY WIND SURGE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE ATLC WATERS N OF SEBASTIAN
INLET IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRES TROF THAT HAS PRESSED INTO S FL...
BUOY009 MEASURING A STEADY 20KT NRLY BREEZE WITH SEAS HOVERING ARND
7FT. SEAS LIKELY HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM DUE TO THE OPPOSING NRLY
BREEZE/SRLY CURRENT. CONDITIONS UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS A
LARGE CONTINENTAL RIDGE OVER THE LWR/MID MS VALLEY PRESSES EAST AND
MAINTAINS A TIGHT PGRAD ACRS THE REGION. WINDS NOT AS STRONG OVER
THE TREASURE COAST WATERS AS THE AXIS OF THE TROF WILL MAINTAIN A
WEAKER PGRAD IN THE LCL VCNTY...BUT INCOMING NERLY SWELLS WILL KEEP
SEAS AT LEAST IN THE CAUTIONARY CATEGORY IF NOT ADVISORY CATEGORY.
SCA IN PLACE THRU WED AFTN...NO NEED FOR ANY MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS AROUND 3.1 FEET EARLY THIS
MORNING...ABOUT 0.3 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
FORECAST UPDATE...BRAGAW
IMPACT WX.........KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
445 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH 8:00 PM TONIGHT...
TONIGHT...
WEAK CYCLONE LIFTING UP THE SERN SEABOARD THIS AFTN WITH DEEP LYR
WARMING THRU THE MID LVLS WILL PRECLUDE ANY HIGH IMPACT PRECIP...
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE -6C H50 ISOTHERM DEPARTING THE NRN
BREVARD COAST...WARMING TO -4C AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SLGT CHANCE
OF SHRAS ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CAPE NWD AS A NRLY WIND SURGE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE DOWN FROM THE GA/SC COAST...MRNG SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
INCREASING FROM 1.1" AT KXMR TO 1.4" AT KJAX. SFC/LOW LVL PGRAD
SHOULD REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH MAINTAIN A LIGHT NWRLY DRAINAGE FLOW DOWN
THE PENINSULA...MIN TEMPS GENERAL IN THE L/M60S WITH A FEW SPOTS
HOLING IN THE U60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
NOTE FOR COASTAL INTERESTS: A LONG PERIOD (11-SECOND)SWELL FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENT AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH SUNSET.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...(MODIFIED PREV DISC)
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE OFFSHORE FROM THE NC COAST AND ALLOW A
WEAK TROF TO DROP DOWN ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTAL AREAS
WITH A NRLY LOW LVL WIND SURGE DVLPG IN ITS WAKE. VERY WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN PLACE DUE TO A STRONG H85-H70 INVERSION...
LIMITED UVM WILL PRECLUDE DEEP CONVECTION. ANY PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF LOW TOPPED SHRAS AND SHOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST. WILL LIMIT
PRECIP TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM INDIAN RIVER NWD...AND INTERIOR
COUNTIES FROM ORANGE/SRN LAKE NWD AS THE AIRMASS INITIALLY WILL BE
QUITE DRY AND WILL REQUIRE MODIFICATION IN ORDER TO SUPPORT PRECIP.
MAX TEMPS L-M80S.
CSTL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFT SUNSET AS THE
PERSISTENT N/NE FLOW SLOWLY MODIFIES THE DRY AIR...30 POPS COASTAL
VOLUSIA TO INDIAN RIVER AS N/NE FLOW 15-20KTS THRU THE H100-H80 LYR
GENERATES COASTAL CONVERGENCE WHILE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MODIFY THE
DRY AIR ALOFT. SHRAS FORMING IN THIS TYPE OF FLOW REGIME RARELY HAVE
ANY SIG IMPACT W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...NO MENTIONABLE PRECIP FOR
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. MIN TEMPS M/U60S INTERIOR...U60S/L70S ALONG
THE COAST.
WED...(MODIFIED PREV DISC)
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN SECTIONS BEHIND THE WANING
SFC BOUNDARY WITH GFS INDICATING SOME DRYING ACROSS FAR NRN SECTIONS
WITH NE LOW LVL FLOW. WILL TAPER POPS FROM 30PCT COASTAL TO BLO 20PCT
INTERIOR...WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL PRECLUDE ANY TSTRM ACTIVITY. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND SRN
SECTIONS...ONSHORE FLOW WILL MODIFY LOW DEWPOINT AIR SUFFICIENTLY TO
KEEP MIN TEMPS NEAR 70F.
THU...(PREV DISC)
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE ON THU WITH REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS CLOSEST TO THE OLD SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AIRMASS WILL BEGIN
TO MODIFY SOMEWHAT WITH STILL SOME LINGERING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO MID-UPPER 80S IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
FRI-SUN...(PREV DISC)
LONG RANGE MODELS A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN STATES AND WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS PROGS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING EAST OF THE
STATE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH 00Z ECMWF ALSO INDICATING A S/W
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH CENTRAL FL SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME DRYING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FCST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE LEVELS FOR SOME
CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH ANY DEEPER CONVECTION MOVING TWD THE EAST
COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE
30-40 PCT RANGE FRI/SAT LOWERING TO 20/30 PCT ON SUNDAY. HIGHS IN
THE MID-UPR 80S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE 18Z MAV GUIDANCE HINTING AT MVFR CIGS BTWN 06/09Z-06/14Z DUE TO
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE 850-700MB LAYER...LIGHT NW FLOW IN THE
LOWEST LAYER BCMG N/NW ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DEPARTING CYCLONE OFF THE GA/SC COAST WILL TRAIL A WEAK
TROF INTO THE LCL ATLC...MAINTAINING A WEAK SFC/BNDRY LYR PGRAD.
GENTLE NWRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPTION WILL BE THE VOLUSIA
WATERS AS A NRLY SURGE MAY WORK ITS WAY S OF FLAGLER BEACH OVERNIGHT
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CYCLONE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS A 6-7FT
ERLY SWELL TRAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE LCL ATLC...WILL MAINTAIN
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS AREAWIDE.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AS A NRLY WIND SURGE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES A NEW SWELL
TRAIN INTO THE LCL ATLC FROM THE CAROLINAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NRLY
BREEZE WILL COMBINE WITH THE SWELL TO PUSH SEAS BACK UP TO 6-8FT OVER
AT LEAST THE VOLUSIA WATERS IF NOT THE NRN BREVARD WATERS. THE
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE TREASURE COAST
WATERS...BUT STILL WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO MAINTAIN 5-7FT
SEAS THRU DAYBREAK WED.
WED-THU...WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN A SLOW BUT STEADY RETREAT THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A WEAK TROF TRAILING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW STALLS
OVER CENTRAL FL. GENTLE TO MODERATE NRLY BREEZE WED BCMG LIGHT TO
GENTLE E/NE BREEZE WED NIGHT...THEN LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE BY
LATE THU. SEAS 5-6FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE WED...SUBSIDING TO
4-6FT AREAWIDE LATE WED NIGHT...THEN 3-5FT AFT SUNSET THU.
FRI-SAT...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE TROF
COLLAPSES AND THE ATLC RIDGE REBUILDS ACRS THE SW ATLC. LIGHT TO
GENTLE SERLY BREEZE...SEAS 3-5FT FRI SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS JUST ABOVE 3.0 FT THIS
AFTN...ABOUT 0.20 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 65 82 69 82 / 20 30 20 30
MCO 66 84 69 84 / 10 20 20 30
MLB 64 84 71 84 / 20 20 40 40
VRB 64 84 69 84 / 20 10 40 40
LEE 65 83 67 84 / 10 20 10 20
SFB 66 84 68 84 / 10 30 20 30
ORL 67 84 69 84 / 10 20 20 30
FPR 64 85 68 85 / 20 10 40 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT/LONG TERM......BRAGAW
AVIATION/IMPACT WX...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
338 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER
LOW THAT WAS OVER THE REGION DURING THE PAST WEEKEND FINALLY
EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE LOW CENTER IS NOW WELL
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...AND ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE
RISING...THE LARGER CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE PLUME ON WV IMAGERY
REMAINS OVER THE STATE. THE MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL. ALL THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN OVERALL IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN TERMS
DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MIGRATING OFF THE GULF.
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW...ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL CHILLY AIR ALOFT IS STILL PROMOTING
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE OFF
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...MAINLY FROM PINELLAS COUNTY
SOUTHWARD. KEEP RAIN 30-50% RAIN CHANCES IN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST FOR THESE SHOWERS...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE
AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THESE SHOWER MOVE ASHORE THE DIURNAL
MIXING PROCESSES ARE HELPING TO DISSIPATE THEM BEFORE THEY MAKE
MUCH INLAND PENETRATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS ABOVE...WE CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH A
FEW SCT SHOWERS MIGRATING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF...AND KEEPING A
30-50% CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST FROM PINELLAS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
THE FURTHER WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THE FURTHER EAST THE
UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT...THE OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD
LESSEN...ALONG WITH TEMPS WARMING A FEW MORE DEGREES ALOFT. ALL
THESE PROCESSES WILL HELP TO DISCOURAGE FURTHER SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. MORE DEFINED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE GULF MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF SUNSET...SHOULD BE ABLE TO CARRY A DRY FORECAST FOR EVEN
OUR COASTAL LAND ZONES.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FROM LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA BY DAWN TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT LIGHT NORTHERLY OVER ALL AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH.
SREF GUIDANCE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD FAVOR SOME LOWER
CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE
GUIDANCE RUNS FOR INCLUSION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS INTO
I-4 CORRIDOR TAFS. LOW TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S NORTH...AND MID/UPPER 60S
SOUTH. LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY AND THE
ISLAND AROUND CHARLOTTE HARBOR ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
WITH FLOW OFF THE WATER.
TUESDAY...
A QUIET AND SEASONABLE EARLY OCTOBER DAY IS FORECAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE
EXITED THE AREA. OUR REGION WILL BE LEFT BEHIND WITHIN A VERY
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO
"NOSE" IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE SURFACE. AFTER MORNING LOW CLOUDS
(ESPECIALLY NORTH)...WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...WITH
LOW RAIN CHANCES. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE TO
THE SOUTH OF I-4 IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OLD/STALLED SURFACE
TROUGH...HOWEVER... RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE 10% OR LESS FOR MOST
SPOTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN LOOK SEASONABLE WITH LOWER/MID 80S
NORTH...AND MIDDLE 80S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - NEXT MONDAY)...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AS A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH RIDGING BUILDING
DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY N/NE FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEAK TROUGH OVER SOUTH FL WILL
LIFT NORTH OVER THE STATE AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE BECOMES ONSHORE WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT SOMEWHAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES WITH IT IN THE ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED RANGE. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY WITH A
LINGERING SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...THEN WARM INTO THE 70S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHTS...AND COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS CLOSE TO THE COAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AFTER
SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY...A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR...MAINLY KLAL/KTPA/KPIE. ANY EARLY MORNING CIGS WILL BURN
OFF BY 15Z RESULTING IN PREVAILING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING STATIONARY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS ON TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH THEN
WASHES OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
MID-WEEK. A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS IS FORECAST TONIGHT
TO THE NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS...BUT OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH AFTER TODAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE IN THE
FORECAST.
FOG POTENTIAL...AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 68 84 71 86 / 10 10 10 20
FMY 69 86 71 88 / 20 10 10 30
GIF 67 85 70 85 / 0 10 20 40
SRQ 68 83 70 86 / 20 0 10 20
BKV 65 83 68 85 / 10 10 10 20
SPG 71 83 73 85 / 20 0 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...HUBBARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1112 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER
LOW THAT WAS OVER THE REGION DURING THE PAST WEEKEND IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO PIVOT OFF TO THE EAST. THE LOW CENTER IS NOW OFF THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...ALTHOUGH THE LARGER CIRCULATION AND
MOISTURE PLUME ON WV IMAGERY REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
EVEN STILL...OUR HEIGHTS ARE BEGINNING TO CLIMB AND THE MAIN COLD
POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST. ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN OVERALL IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
LATER TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW...ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL CHILLY AIR ALOFT IS STILL PROMOTING
A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ASHORE OFF THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...MAINLY FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THE MORNING 12Z
KTBW SOUNDING SHOWED A WARM MOIST PROFILE BELOW 800MB UNDERNEATH
A STABLE CAPPING LAYER. THIS PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 6-8KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE...AND WE DID SEE SOME
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AROUND FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE THREAT FOR
DRIZZLE IS NOW ENDING AS DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS TO TAKE OVER THE
BOUNDARY LAYER PROCESSES.
SOME AREAS ARE SEEING SUNNY BREAKS...BUT OVERALL WILL CALL
CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLOUDY AROUND THE REGION THIS LATE MORNING.
THOSE AREAS SEEING SOME SUN WILL LIKELY CLOUD IN WITH CU/STRAT-CU
WITH TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS ABOVE...WE CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH A
FEW SCT SHOWERS MIGRATING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF THIS MIDDAY...AND
KEEPING A 30-40% CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST FROM PINELLAS
SOUTHWARD FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
THE FURTHER WE GET INTO THE DAY...THE FURTHER EAST THE UPPER LOW
WILL PIVOT...THE OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD LESSEN...AND TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARMING A FEW MORE DEGREES ALOFT. ALL THIS WILL HELP TO
DISCOURAGE FURTHER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BETTER CONTINUED INSTABILITY
DUE TO THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD A DRY FORECAST FOR OUR
LAND ZONES.
LOTS OF CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...AND MEAGER DIURNAL MIXING
WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE "COOLER SIDE". LOOKING FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S...WITH PERHAPS SOME MID 80S READINGS
DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...IF ENOUGH SUNNY BREAKS CAN
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD AND BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA BY DAWN
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT LIGHT NORTHERLY OVER ALL AREAS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH. SREF GUIDANCE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD FAVOR
SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FUTURE GUIDANCE RUNS FOR INCLUSION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS INTO I-4 CORRIDOR TAFS. LOW TEMPERATURES BY LATE
TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S NORTH...AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH. LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PINELLAS
COUNTY AND THE ISLAND AROUND CHARLOTTE HARBOR ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
IN THE 70S WITH FLOW OFF THE WATER.
TUESDAY...
A QUIET AND SEASONABLE EARLY OCTOBER DAY IS FORECAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE
EXITED THE AREA. ARE AREA WILL BE LEFT BEHIND WITHIN A VERY BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO "NOSE"
IN FROM THE NORTH. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY NORTH)...WE
SHOULD SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE TO THE SOUTH OF I-4 IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OLD/STALLED SURFACE TROUGH...HOWEVER...
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE 10% OR LESS FOR MOST SPOTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LOOK SEASONABLE WITH LOWER/MID 80S NORTH...AND
MIDDLE 80S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - NEXT SUNDAY)...
A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTHWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN ITS WAKE...A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG
WEAK SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN
EAST OF I-75.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDING BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE GULF...AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PERSIST. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GET A BETTER
SEABREEZE GOING...ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LONG RANGE MODELS THEN DEPICT A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT
SOUTHEASTWARD...DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH IT. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...WE MAY SEE INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RISING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND SCT -SHWRS/-DZ CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR
AREAS OF LOWER CIGS/VIS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL NEED TO WATCH
KTPA/KLAL/KPIE FOR BEST POTENTIAL FOR LATE PERIOD RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...BECOMING STATIONARY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS ON TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH THEN
WASHES OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY MID-
WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH AFTER TODAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE IN THE
FORECAST.
FOG POTENTIAL...AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 83 69 84 70 / 20 0 10 10
FMY 84 69 86 71 / 50 10 10 10
GIF 84 67 85 69 / 10 0 10 10
SRQ 82 68 85 70 / 30 0 0 10
BKV 82 65 83 66 / 10 0 10 10
SPG 81 71 83 73 / 30 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...AUSTIN
DECISION SUPPORT...HUBBARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1030 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY...
WEAK CYCLONE LIFTING UP THE SERN SEABOARD THIS MRNG WILL CARRY A
DEEP COLD POCKET ALONG WITH IT...ALLOWING MID LVL TEMPS TO WARM
DRAMATICALLY THRU THE DAY. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS H50 TEMPS
WARMING FROM -8C/-9C ALONG THE NE FL COAST TO BTWN -4C/-5C ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. FURTHERMORE...THE 12Z KXMR/KTBW RAOB SOUNDINGS
REVEALED SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS IN THE H85-H80 LYRS WITH PWAT
VALUES ARND 1.1" AT KXMR...1.4" AT KTBW.
PREVAILING WRLY FLOW ACRS THE PENINSULA WILL ALLOW THE DRY AIR OVER
THE ERN PENINSULA TO ERODE...BUT ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY THE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PRECIP.
EVEN THEN...H100-H70 MEAN RH ARND 75PCT AND H85-H50 MEAN RH ARND
50PCT WOULD ONLY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRAS...ESPECIALLY AS MID LVL
VORTICITY DIMINISHES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING CYCLONE.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NOTE FOR COASTAL INTERESTS: A LONG PERIOD (11-SECOND)SWELL FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENT AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 06/12Z
THRU 06/00Z...PREVAILING W/NW SFC WNDS BTWN 7-10KTS WITH VFR CIGS
BTWN FL040-060...THRU 05/16Z AREAS MVFR CIGS BTWN FL015-025 LCL IFR
CIGS BTWN FL006-009...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS S OF KMLB-KGIF.
AFT 06/00Z...PREVAILING N/NW SFC WNDS BTWN 4-7KTS WITH IFR CIGS BTWN
FL006-009 DVLPG N OF KMLB-KISM AFT 06/06Z...LCL LIFR CIGS AOB FL004.
SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS COASTAL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST OBS INDICATE OVERALL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SUFFICIENTLY TO
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT 11AM...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC WRLY WINDS
DIMINISHING TO ARND 10KTS. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AS A 6-7FT ERLY SWELL TRAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE LCL
ATLC THRU THE AFTN...BUOY010 WAS STILL MEASURING 7FT/11SEC SWELLS AS
OF MID MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS AREAWIDE...
ESPECIALLY AS OVER THE NEXT 24HRS A NEW SURGE OF NRLY WINDS/NE
SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN FROM THE CAROLINAS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NE FL COAST.
WILL DELAY ISSUING THE MORNING COASTAL FORECAST UNTIL 11AM TO COINCIDE
WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE SCA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS BETWEEN 3.04 FT THIS MORNING...
ABOUT 0.24 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN MINOR FLOOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-
60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
FORECAST UPDATE......BRAGAW
AVIATION/IMPACT WX...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
736 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND ANY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE
REGION. CLOUDINESS REMAINS ALONG THE COAST AND EXPECT THIS TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES FURTHER
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS FLOODING AND CONDITION OF
AREA DAMS. WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND
BEGUN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH AREA DAMS SLOWLY BECOMING MORE
STABLE. SEVERAL DAMS CONTINUE TO CAUSE CONCERN AND REMAIN CLOSELY
MONITORED WITH SOME HAVING LEVELS DRAWN DOWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY UPPER RIDGING WEST
OF THE REGION FLATTENING DURING THE PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH JUST THIN HIGH CLOUDS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
A LITTLE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. FOG WILL
LIKELY OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BECAUSE OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN EVENT AND LIGHT
WIND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA (FA) FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...HOWEVER
BOTH MODELS SHOW H85 WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUGGESTING
LIMITED MOISTURE. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF. GUIDANCE POPS
RANGE FROM 10 TO 30 PERCENT.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. USED THE WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
FRONTAL MIXING FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS FOR
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH PERIOD. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR
FOG AT AGS/OGB TOWARD MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AREA RIVERS HAVE CRESTED...HOWEVER RIVER STAGES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH STAGES SLOWLY
RETURNING TO BELOW FLOOD LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1226 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WITH VERY HIGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. EXPECT DRYING
TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE 2348Z AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 430 AM. THIS
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT
FOR EARTHEN DAM BREAKS. NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN CLOSED THROUGHOUT
THE REGION. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION...
UPDATE 22Z THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED IN THE CSRA.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGEST MUCH LOWER HOURLY RAIN RATES OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO DROP WATCH FOR THE AUGUSTA METRO
AREA AND REST OF THE CSRA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN FL WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW PUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL SC COAST THROUGH THE MIDLANDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS WITH
FLOODING OCCURRING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AT 20Z...THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...ALTHOUGH HOURLY RAIN RATES ARE A LITTLE LOWER.
RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWEST AND MAINLY AFFECT THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS.
SITUATION WHICH CONTINUES TO UNFOLD HAS REACHED CRITICAL
LEVELS...SCEMD HAS ISSUED A CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE URGING
EVERYONE TO REMAIN AT A SAFE AND DRY LOCATION AND ONLY LEAVE IF
TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.
OTHER CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. COMBINED WITH THE
SATURATED SOILS THIS WILL RESULT IN TREES BEING BLOWN
DOWN...INCLUDING ACROSS ROADWAYS AND INTO POWERLINES. NUMEROUS
TREES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED BLOWN DOWN DUE TO THE SATURATED
SOILS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAIN
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT AT MOST 1 TO 2 INCHES
ADDITIONAL. LESS QPF TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BUT THE MODELS INDICATE LESS FORCING AND QPF. THE MODELS DEPICT
THE H5 LOW CONTOURS BECOME CONFLUENT WITH THE H85 JET BACKING
FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHING FROM 40 TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS
MONDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHEAST PART. RUNOFF FROM THE EXTREME RAIN EVENT SHOULD STILL BE
AN ISSUE AND SOME AREA RIVERS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIVER FLOODING SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH A
SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
LIGHT TO MODERATE BAND OF RAIN ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO IFR RANGE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
LOWER AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATER
TODAY BECOMING SCATTERED BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY
VFR. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS.
WINDS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS VSBYS TO
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
823 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Current package remains on-track.
Still some question as to intensity and coverage of fog late
tonight and early Wednesday. Though moist northeast flow has
diminished as a surface ridge has pushed into Illinois, plenty of
residual moisture remains in the boundary layer. For now will keep
current wording of areas of fog, but will have to monitor trends
closely. latest RAP (23z) is more agressive with fog development
than runs from earlier today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Low cloud deck has faded over most of the forecast area early this
afternoon, but some stratocumulus lingers especially in west central
Illinois. Main concern is that this will return once again tonight.
The atmosphere has not changed much, as the high pressure axis to
our west only slowly edges eastward. The RAP model, which locked
into the idea of this morning`s low clouds and fog about 24 hours in
advance, shows another expanse of stratus/fog advecting in from the
northeast after about 2 am. Wild card will be with some altocumulus
clouds currently over Wisconsin/Minnesota dropping southeast, which
could slow the redevelopment of the low clouds. Right now, will
focus more on the areas east of I-55 and north of I-70 as more
likely to see some fog late night, although some fog along the
Wabash River in southeast Illinois is a possibility as well.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Areas of fog from I-55 east and locally dense in spots to lift
during mid morning similar to past 2 mornings. Low clouds to also
break up by late morning with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny
by Wed afternoon with weak surface high pressure ridge of 1018 mb
near IL Wed and Wed night. Warm highs Wed in the upper 70s to near
80F. Lows Wed night in the mid to upper 50s. Could be some patchy
fog in southeast IL later Wed night where surface winds lighter.
Another warm day expected Thu with breezy ssw winds by midday Thu
giving highs in the lower 80s. MAV guidance even going mid 80s in
western CWA from Decatur west but did not go this warm since there
will be increasing cloud cover ahead of approaching cold front along
with chances of showers and thunderstorms NW half of CWA Thu
afternoon, with best chances over the IL river valley. SPC has
marginal risk (5%) of severe storms for hail late Thu afternoon and
early Thu evening over IL river valley. MLCapes peak near 1000 j/kg
late Thu afternoon nw IL and 0-6 km Bulk shear from 35-45 kts. 12Z
models similar in sweeping cold front se acorss central IL during
Thu night with likely chances of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Cold front exits southeast IL early Fri morning with lingering
chances of showers on Friday especially in the morning.
Dry conditions return to central and southeast IL Friday night
through next Tuesday as high pressure from the Pacific NW settles
into IL Saturday and then into the Southeast U.S. early next week.
Temps cool back to near or a bit below normal Friday/Saturday and
then warm back above normal early next week with highs in the mid
70s to lower 80s Sun-Tue. WNW upper level flow takes shape during
1st half of next week which would favor fair and mild conditions,
and favorable for fall harvest. CPC`s day 6-10 day outlook Oct 12-16
has IL in above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Surface ridge now over the mid-Mississippi Valley has moved very
slowly southeast over the past few days reducing moist northeast
flow from west to east compared to earlier in the week. Current
MVFR CIGS are a bit closer to the lake this evening as well
compared to last night. These two factors should combine to limit
IFR conditions a bit from last two nights. The RAP has done well
recently in picking up on the overall southwest extent of stratus
deck advection during the nightime hours and the current run
limits low VSBYs to along and east of KPIA to KDEC line. With the
ridge a bit further east than past two nights this seems
reasonable.
Mid-level cloud moving across the terminals should also delay
onset somewhat. Will lower into IFR conditions once again at
KCMI KBMI and KDEC and keep KSPI and KPIA in MVFR. KCMI and KDEC
appear to have best chance of LIFR CIGS based on RAP boundary
layer RH profiles and will have a TEMPO group for CIGS below 050
for a brief period around sunrise.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
620 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Low cloud deck has faded over most of the forecast area early this
afternoon, but some stratocumulus lingers especially in west central
Illinois. Main concern is that this will return once again tonight.
The atmosphere has not changed much, as the high pressure axis to
our west only slowly edges eastward. The RAP model, which locked
into the idea of this morning`s low clouds and fog about 24 hours in
advance, shows another expanse of stratus/fog advecting in from the
northeast after about 2 am. Wild card will be with some altocumulus
clouds currently over Wisconsin/Minnesota dropping southeast, which
could slow the redevelopment of the low clouds. Right now, will
focus more on the areas east of I-55 and north of I-70 as more
likely to see some fog late night, although some fog along the
Wabash River in southeast Illinois is a possibility as well.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Areas of fog from I-55 east and locally dense in spots to lift
during mid morning similar to past 2 mornings. Low clouds to also
break up by late morning with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny
by Wed afternoon with weak surface high pressure ridge of 1018 mb
near IL Wed and Wed night. Warm highs Wed in the upper 70s to near
80F. Lows Wed night in the mid to upper 50s. Could be some patchy
fog in southeast IL later Wed night where surface winds lighter.
Another warm day expected Thu with breezy ssw winds by midday Thu
giving highs in the lower 80s. MAV guidance even going mid 80s in
western CWA from Decatur west but did not go this warm since there
will be increasing cloud cover ahead of approaching cold front along
with chances of showers and thunderstorms NW half of CWA Thu
afternoon, with best chances over the IL river valley. SPC has
marginal risk (5%) of severe storms for hail late Thu afternoon and
early Thu evening over IL river valley. MLCapes peak near 1000 j/kg
late Thu afternoon nw IL and 0-6 km Bulk shear from 35-45 kts. 12Z
models similar in sweeping cold front se acorss central IL during
Thu night with likely chances of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Cold front exits southeast IL early Fri morning with lingering
chances of showers on Friday especially in the morning.
Dry conditions return to central and southeast IL Friday night
through next Tuesday as high pressure from the Pacific NW settles
into IL Saturday and then into the Southeast U.S. early next week.
Temps cool back to near or a bit below normal Friday/Saturday and
then warm back above normal early next week with highs in the mid
70s to lower 80s Sun-Tue. WNW upper level flow takes shape during
1st half of next week which would favor fair and mild conditions,
and favorable for fall harvest. CPC`s day 6-10 day outlook Oct 12-16
has IL in above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Surface ridge now over the mid-Mississippi Valley has moved very
slowly southeast over the past few days reducing moist northeast
flow from west to east compared to earlier in the week. Current
MVFR CIGS are a bit closer to the lake this evening as well
compared to last night. These two factors should combine to limit
IFR conditions a bit from last two nights. The RAP has done well
recently in picking up on the overall southwest extent of stratus
deck advection during the nightime hours and the current run
limits low VSBYs to along and east of KPIA to KDEC line. With the
ridge a bit further east than past two nights this seems
reasonable.
Mid-level cloud moving across the terminals should also delay
onset somewhat. Will lower into IFR conditions once again at
KCMI KBMI and KDEC and keep KSPI and KPIA in MVFR. KCMI and KDEC
appear to have best chance of LIFR CIGS based on RAP boundary
layer RH profiles and will have a TEMPO group for CIGS below 050
for a brief period around sunrise.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
232 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Stratus deck held firm a good part of the morning, but started to
rapidly erode toward midday and most of it is now gone from the
forecast area as of 2 pm. Still getting some cirrus streaming up
from the southwest, but most areas at least are now partly sunny.
This has helped temperatures recover nicely and much of the CWA has
reached into the 70s. A few 80 degree readings have been observed in
the far southeast, where skies have been mostly sunny the entire
time.
High pressure ridge from Wisconsin to Oklahoma will move little
overnight, keeping our northeast flow continuing. 925 mb RAP
humidity plot showing some southern building of the lower clouds
once again overnight, and have indicated mostly cloudy conditions
spreading over most of the forecast area overnight. It has also been
persistent over the last few hours on a widespread dense fog
scenario expanding southwest to cover the southeast half of the
forecast area. The 4km NAM-nest shows this a bit further northwest,
mainly from about I-55 eastward, and the tail end of the HRRR is
more patchy in nature, but in that same general region. At the
moment, will only mention patchy fog in the forecast and continue to
watch how the stratus evolves this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
High pressure ridge will dominate the weather across central IL
through mid week. Though there could be some cloud cover, partly to
mostly sunny skies should be the rule, with temps warming to above
normal, mid to upper 70s...into the lower 80s, for Wed and Thur.
Then models are in very good agreement with timing and intensity of
a cold front moving through the area Thursday night. Pcpn will begin
just ahead of the front Thursday morning northwest of the IL river
and then spread eastward through the afternoon and into the evening
for the southeast. The front should move through the area quickly
Thursday night with pcpn likely over the northeastern portion of the
CWA during the night. The pcpn should be exiting the area from late
Thursday night through early Friday morning. Lingering pcpn will in
southeastern IL Friday morning, with all pcpn gone before the
afternoon. This front will bring cooler temps in for Friday and
Saturday, but with another high pressure ridge moving into the area,
temps will again warm to above normal levels for Sun and Mon. Dry
weather is also expected Friday afternoon through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
IFR/LIFR cloud deck has shown some erosion and lifting over the
last few hours, with only highs clouds south of a KSPI-KDNV line.
Aside from KDEC which has completely lost the low clouds,
conditions should lift into MVFR range shortly over most of the
remaining TAF sites. Have kept KBMI IFR through most of the
afternoon, although even here there will be some breaks into a
higher category mid-late afternoon.
Main concern overnight is for a repeat of today`s conditions. Last
few runs of the RAP and NAM-Nest models have been trying to focus
the stratus/fog across the southeast half of Illinois after 06Z,
mainly skirting the TAF sites. Have gone with IFR conditions at
KBMI due to the slower nature of the ceiling lift this afternoon,
but kept the lower MVFR ceilings of 1000-1500 feet elsewhere. A
thick inversion should keep ceilings below 3000 feet through
midday Tuesday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1229 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Forecast concerns for today remain with clouds and temperatures.
Latest visible satellite imagery showing a large deck of low
stratus clouds from about Litchfield to Paris northward,
exhibiting very little movement over the last couple hours. Some
higher clouds are now streaming over the stratus as well. Areas of
dense fog across east central Illinois are contracting and
becoming more isolated, and should further erode over the next 1-2
hours. Morning upper-air sounding showing a fairly strong
inversion around 1,000 feet. Forecast soundings off the RAP show
this lifting to around 2,000 feet this afternoon, with 925 mb
humidity plots showing the clouds remaining widespread across at
least the northern third of the forecast area (mainly Rushville-
Danville northward). Have trended temperatures down a degree or
two in that area, but will have to watch for further downward
adjustments if the stratus deck does not start eroding faster in
the next couple hours.
Across the southeast CWA, skies are mostly sunny, but some
increase in clouds on tap as the higher clouds stream in from the
southwest. Temperatures rebounding nicely so far and should reach
into the upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Main short-term forecast concern will be amount of cloud cover and
its impact on high temperatures today. 07z/2am IR satellite imagery
shows low clouds persisting along/west of the Illinois River...while
skies have become mostly clear further east across the remainder of
the area. Meanwhile...low clouds are re-developing upstream across
northern sections of Illinois and Indiana. With high pressure
anchored from Lake Superior into the Central Plains...E/NE low-level
flow around the high will tend to advect the cloudiness back into
the KILX CWA over the next few hours. Based on satellite timing
tools and latest HRRR guidance...am expecting overcast conditions to
exist along/northwest of a Springfield to Paris line by dawn.
Further southeast...conditions will remain mostly clear with only
high clouds streaming across the sky. NAM/GFS forecast soundings
and HRRR all suggest low clouds will gradually dissipate across most
of the area by midday...however quite a bit of mid/high cloud cover
will remain. End result will be a partly to mostly cloudy day
across the northern two-thirds of the CWA...with mostly sunny skies
along/south of I-70. A fairly robust temperature gradient will
develop across the area depending on how much cloud cover
persists...with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s
northwest of the Illinois River where conditions will remain
cloudiest...to the upper 70s along/south of I-70 where much more
sunshine will prevail.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Persistent low-level moisture will be slow to depart the region as
surface high remains in place along the Mississippi River. Thanks
to continued E/NE flow around the high and a weak upper-level
disturbance...quite a bit of cloudiness will stick around through
Tuesday. Once the high gradually slides further east and winds
begin to shift to a more southerly direction...much more sunshine
will be noted by Wednesday. Resulting high temperatures will
generally be in the lower to middle 70s on Tuesday...rising into the
upper 70s to around 80 by Wednesday.
Cold front is still expected to swing through central Illinois later
in the week...with the 00z Oct 5 models speeding up passage of the
front by about 6-12 hours. Due to faster approach...have included
chance PoPs for showers/isolated thunder further east to the I-57
corridor during the day Thursday...with the best chance for showers
across the entire area still slated for Thursday night. While the
GFS shows the boundary completely clearing the CWA by early Friday
morning...ECMWF remains a bit slower so have lingered low chance
PoPs for showers along/south of I-70 into Friday. Once front
passes, temperatures will drop into the 60s for both Friday and
Saturday.
After that...upper heights will once again rise markedly across the
Midwest early next week resulting in another warming trend. Both
the GFS and ECMWF show 850mb temps rising into the 20-22C range by
Monday, which will likely lead to high temperatures reaching the
upper 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
IFR/LIFR cloud deck has shown some erosion and lifting over the
last few hours, with only highs clouds south of a KSPI-KDNV line.
Aside from KDEC which has completely lost the low clouds,
conditions should lift into MVFR range shortly over most of the
remaining TAF sites. Have kept KBMI IFR through most of the
afternoon, although even here there will be some breaks into a
higher category mid-late afternoon.
Main concern overnight is for a repeat of today`s conditions. Last
few runs of the RAP and NAM-Nest models have been trying to focus
the stratus/fog across the southeast half of Illinois after 06Z,
mainly skirting the TAF sites. Have gone with IFR conditions at
KBMI due to the slower nature of the ceiling lift this afternoon,
but kept the lower MVFR ceilings of 1000-1500 feet elsewhere. A
thick inversion should keep ceilings below 3000 feet through
midday Tuesday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
923 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Forecast concerns for today remain with clouds and temperatures.
Latest visible satellite imagery showing a large deck of low
stratus clouds from about Litchfield to Paris northward,
exhibiting very little movement over the last couple hours. Some
higher clouds are now streaming over the stratus as well. Areas of
dense fog across east central Illinois are contracting and
becoming more isolated, and should further erode over the next 1-2
hours. Morning upper-air sounding showing a fairly strong
inversion around 1,000 feet. Forecast soundings off the RAP show
this lifting to around 2,000 feet this afternoon, with 925 mb
humidity plots showing the clouds remaining widespread across at
least the northern third of the forecast area (mainly Rushville-
Danville northward). Have trended temperatures down a degree or
two in that area, but will have to watch for further downward
adjustments if the stratus deck does not start eroding faster in
the next couple hours.
Across the southeast CWA, skies are mostly sunny, but some
increase in clouds on tap as the higher clouds stream in from the
southwest. Temperatures rebounding nicely so far and should reach
into the upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Main short-term forecast concern will be amount of cloud cover and
its impact on high temperatures today. 07z/2am IR satellite imagery
shows low clouds persisting along/west of the Illinois River...while
skies have become mostly clear further east across the remainder of
the area. Meanwhile...low clouds are re-developing upstream across
northern sections of Illinois and Indiana. With high pressure
anchored from Lake Superior into the Central Plains...E/NE low-level
flow around the high will tend to advect the cloudiness back into
the KILX CWA over the next few hours. Based on satellite timing
tools and latest HRRR guidance...am expecting overcast conditions to
exist along/northwest of a Springfield to Paris line by dawn.
Further southeast...conditions will remain mostly clear with only
high clouds streaming across the sky. NAM/GFS forecast soundings
and HRRR all suggest low clouds will gradually dissipate across most
of the area by midday...however quite a bit of mid/high cloud cover
will remain. End result will be a partly to mostly cloudy day
across the northern two-thirds of the CWA...with mostly sunny skies
along/south of I-70. A fairly robust temperature gradient will
develop across the area depending on how much cloud cover
persists...with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s
northwest of the Illinois River where conditions will remain
cloudiest...to the upper 70s along/south of I-70 where much more
sunshine will prevail.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Persistent low-level moisture will be slow to depart the region as
surface high remains in place along the Mississippi River. Thanks
to continued E/NE flow around the high and a weak upper-level
disturbance...quite a bit of cloudiness will stick around through
Tuesday. Once the high gradually slides further east and winds
begin to shift to a more southerly direction...much more sunshine
will be noted by Wednesday. Resulting high temperatures will
generally be in the lower to middle 70s on Tuesday...rising into the
upper 70s to around 80 by Wednesday.
Cold front is still expected to swing through central Illinois later
in the week...with the 00z Oct 5 models speeding up passage of the
front by about 6-12 hours. Due to faster approach...have included
chance PoPs for showers/isolated thunder further east to the I-57
corridor during the day Thursday...with the best chance for showers
across the entire area still slated for Thursday night. While the
GFS shows the boundary completely clearing the CWA by early Friday
morning...ECMWF remains a bit slower so have lingered low chance
PoPs for showers along/south of I-70 into Friday. Once front
passes, temperatures will drop into the 60s for both Friday and
Saturday.
After that...upper heights will once again rise markedly across the
Midwest early next week resulting in another warming trend. Both
the GFS and ECMWF show 850mb temps rising into the 20-22C range by
Monday, which will likely lead to high temperatures reaching the
upper 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
The stratus/fog that is currently over much of central Illinois is
not very well depicted by the current model guidance. Also, the
mid/high level cloudiness is making it hard to determine the full
extent of the stratus. Kept local TAFs IFR through the morning in
most area, gradually rising to MVFR by midday. The low level
inversion that remain in place suggests some redevelopment is
possible again later tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
700 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Main short-term forecast concern will be amount of cloud cover and
its impact on high temperatures today. 07z/2am IR satellite imagery
shows low clouds persisting along/west of the Illinois River...while
skies have become mostly clear further east across the remainder of
the area. Meanwhile...low clouds are re-developing upstream across
northern sections of Illinois and Indiana. With high pressure
anchored from Lake Superior into the Central Plains...E/NE low-level
flow around the high will tend to advect the cloudiness back into
the KILX CWA over the next few hours. Based on satellite timing
tools and latest HRRR guidance...am expecting overcast conditions to
exist along/northwest of a Springfield to Paris line by dawn.
Further southeast...conditions will remain mostly clear with only
high clouds streaming across the sky. NAM/GFS forecast soundings
and HRRR all suggest low clouds will gradually dissipate across most
of the area by midday...however quite a bit of mid/high cloud cover
will remain. End result will be a partly to mostly cloudy day
across the northern two-thirds of the CWA...with mostly sunny skies
along/south of I-70. A fairly robust temperature gradient will
develop across the area depending on how much cloud cover
persists...with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s
northwest of the Illinois River where conditions will remain
cloudiest...to the upper 70s along/south of I-70 where much more
sunshine will prevail.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Persistent low-level moisture will be slow to depart the region as
surface high remains in place along the Mississippi River. Thanks
to continued E/NE flow around the high and a weak upper-level
disturbance...quite a bit of cloudiness will stick around through
Tuesday. Once the high gradually slides further east and winds
begin to shift to a more southerly direction...much more sunshine
will be noted by Wednesday. Resulting high temperatures will
generally be in the lower to middle 70s on Tuesday...rising into the
upper 70s to around 80 by Wednesday.
Cold front is still expected to swing through central Illinois later
in the week...with the 00z Oct 5 models speeding up passage of the
front by about 6-12 hours. Due to faster approach...have included
chance PoPs for showers/isolated thunder further east to the I-57
corridor during the day Thursday...with the best chance for showers
across the entire area still slated for Thursday night. While the
GFS shows the boundary completely clearing the CWA by early Friday
morning...ECMWF remains a bit slower so have lingered low chance
PoPs for showers along/south of I-70 into Friday. Once front
passes, temperatures will drop into the 60s for both Friday and
Saturday.
After that...upper heights will once again rise markedly across the
Midwest early next week resulting in another warming trend. Both
the GFS and ECMWF show 850mb temps rising into the 20-22C range by
Monday, which will likely lead to high temperatures reaching the
upper 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
The stratus/fog that is currently over much of central Illinois is
not very well depicted by the current model guidance. Also, the
mid/high level cloudiness is making it hard to determine the full
extent of the stratus. Kept local TAFs IFR through the morning in
most area, gradually rising to MVFR by midday. The low level
inversion that remain in place suggests some redevelopment is
possible again later tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
315 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Main short-term forecast concern will be amount of cloud cover and
its impact on high temperatures today. 07z/2am IR satellite imagery
shows low clouds persisting along/west of the Illinois River...while
skies have become mostly clear further east across the remainder of
the area. Meanwhile...low clouds are re-developing upstream across
northern sections of Illinois and Indiana. With high pressure
anchored from Lake Superior into the Central Plains...E/NE low-level
flow around the high will tend to advect the cloudiness back into
the KILX CWA over the next few hours. Based on satellite timing
tools and latest HRRR guidance...am expecting overcast conditions to
exist along/northwest of a Springfield to Paris line by dawn.
Further southeast...conditions will remain mostly clear with only
high clouds streaming across the sky. NAM/GFS forecast soundings
and HRRR all suggest low clouds will gradually dissipate across most
of the area by midday...however quite a bit of mid/high cloud cover
will remain. End result will be a partly to mostly cloudy day
across the northern two-thirds of the CWA...with mostly sunny skies
along/south of I-70. A fairly robust temperature gradient will
develop across the area depending on how much cloud cover
persists...with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s
northwest of the Illinois River where conditions will remain
cloudiest...to the upper 70s along/south of I-70 where much more
sunshine will prevail.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Persistent low-level moisture will be slow to depart the region as
surface high remains in place along the Mississippi River. Thanks
to continued E/NE flow around the high and a weak upper-level
disturbance...quite a bit of cloudiness will stick around through
Tuesday. Once the high gradually slides further east and winds
begin to shift to a more southerly direction...much more sunshine
will be noted by Wednesday. Resulting high temperatures will
generally be in the lower to middle 70s on Tuesday...rising into the
upper 70s to around 80 by Wednesday.
Cold front is still expected to swing through central Illinois later
in the week...with the 00z Oct 5 models speeding up passage of the
front by about 6-12 hours. Due to faster approach...have included
chance PoPs for showers/isolated thunder further east to the I-57
corridor during the day Thursday...with the best chance for showers
across the entire area still slated for Thursday night. While the
GFS shows the boundary completely clearing the CWA by early Friday
morning...ECMWF remains a bit slower so have lingered low chance
PoPs for showers along/south of I-70 into Friday. Once front
passes, temperatures will drop into the 60s for both Friday and
Saturday.
After that...upper heights will once again rise markedly across the
Midwest early next week resulting in another warming trend. Both
the GFS and ECMWF show 850mb temps rising into the 20-22C range by
Monday, which will likely lead to high temperatures reaching the
upper 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
The east to west clearing of MVFR clouds stalled earlier this
evening along I-55, but has begun westward progress away from SPI
to BMI in the last couple of hours. High res models continue to
indicate re-development and expansion of MVFR clouds in NE
Illinois and eventually southwest toward SPI and DEC, including
CMI. The HRRR shows MVFR/IFR clouds developing N of a line from
Shelbyville to Paris. The NAM is also pessimistic with low
clouds, but the GFS only has PIA in the MVFR cloud category
overnight. The NAM and GFS both show IFR fog at all TAF sites,
which seems possible. Have included IFR vis only at BMI for now,
with MVFR fog at the other terminals. The NAM and HRRR hold onto
MVFR clouds until mid-day tomorrow, then go VFR. Have included
VFR clouds and vis as early as 15z for SPI and DEC, with 16z at
CMI, and 18z at PIA/BMI.
Winds will remain N-NE 4-8kt overnight, and remain NE at less
than 10kt the rest of the TAF period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
The 00z ILX sounding shows relatively high moisture content below
700 mb across central IL. The clearing that has developed across
the southeast half of our forecast area will likely see some low
clouds redevelop after midnight. The HRRR and RAP models show
clouds surging and developing from NE to SW across our eastern
counties. Updated the sky grids to try to project the expected
trends overnight. Cloud cover will play a role in low temps, with
a few areas in eastern IL that remain clear possibly cooling
below forecast lows. Will reduce lows only a degree or so to
account for that concern.
The remainder of the forecast looks reasonable. Updated info will
be available shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
Upper low storm system over the southeastern this afternoon still
driving the moisture into the Midwest. Although the low and mid
level clouds persisted through the overnight, a wide swath of drying
spread through Ohio and Indiana and is slowly eroding the eastern
side of the cloud shield. Tonight`s forecast centers on how far
those clouds can erode before sunset and llvl moisture gets trapped
below the inversion. Clear areas to the east may end up seeing more
in the way of patchy fog and cooler temps, but a lot will hinge on
the xover temps and how far back to the E/SE the stratus redevelops
tonight. Have trended the forecast to the HRRR which has been
handling the erosion of the clouds quite well.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
Mostly clouds skies will still be lingering over most of central and
parts of eastern IL tomorrow, as the upper level low pressure area
in southeast US finally shifts out to sea. This will allow high
pressure ridge to build into the area for the first half of the
week. Winds will remain northeast but begin to decrease in speed
tomorrow and Tuesday, and then become more light and variable for
Wednesday. Dry weather is expected through the short-term period,
and with, hopefully, more sunshine than today, temps should quickly
warm into the 70s for tomorrow through Wednesday.
The next major weather system to bring pcpn to the area will be
later in the week, Thursday through Friday afternoon. The GFS and
ECMWF have come into better alignment with the timing of the front,
and it should move through the area Thursday night. So am expecting
light pcpn Thur morning in the west/northwest, with it then
spreading east during the day, and then continuing across the CWA
Thursday evening. Pcpn should begin ending from west to east late
Thursday night and then continue through Friday morning. Temps will
be above normal for Thursday, but once the front and pcpn move
through, temps will fall back into the 60s across most of the area.
This, however, will temporary as 70s should return for the end of
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
The east to west clearing of MVFR clouds stalled earlier this
evening along I-55, but has begun westward progress away from SPI
to BMI in the last couple of hours. High res models continue to
indicate re-development and expansion of MVFR clouds in NE
Illinois and eventually southwest toward SPI and DEC, including
CMI. The HRRR shows MVFR/IFR clouds developing N of a line from
Shelbyville to Paris. The NAM is also pessimistic with low
clouds, but the GFS only has PIA in the MVFR cloud category
overnight. The NAM and GFS both show IFR fog at all TAF sites,
which seems possible. Have included IFR vis only at BMI for now,
with MVFR fog at the other terminals. The NAM and HRRR hold onto
MVFR clouds until mid-day tomorrow, then go VFR. Have included
VFR clouds and vis as early as 15z for SPI and DEC, with 16z at
CMI, and 18z at PIA/BMI.
Winds will remain N-NE 4-8kt overnight, and remain NE at less
than 10kt the rest of the TAF period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1207 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS.
STRATUS ADVANCED WEST TO EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT HAS RETREATED BACK EASTWARD SOMEWHAT BY
AFTERNOON...SEEMING TO STOP WHEN IT REACHED DEEPER CLOUD SHIELD. WRF
ARW...RAP AND HRRR HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON CLOUD TRENDS LAST
NIGHT...AND STILL APPEAR TO THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE FOLLOWED
INTO TONIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND THEN BEGIN
MOVING BACK NORTH AND WEST IN WEAK 0-1KM FLOW AS IT SHIFTS FROM NE
TO SE BY LATER THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD REACH ALL BUT FAR NW
SECTIONS TOWARD SUNRISE AND THEN EXPECT STRATUS TO STALL BY THAT
TIME WITH 0-1KM MEAN WIND DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.
TEMPS WILL FALL LITTLE UNDER CURRENT THICKER CLOUD COVER SO HAVE
MINS LESS THAN FIVE DEGREES FROM CURRENT OBS THERE. FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST DIURNAL RANGE MAY BE GREATER WITH A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING DURING THE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THESE AREAS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DURATION OF CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AND EXTENDED WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AS IOWA REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...SUFFICIENT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED TODAY TO
KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS STATE...AND MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
WARMING...AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS THAN GOING. HOWEVER...WITH 850MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO WARM
BY MID WEEK...WILL SEE WARMING TREND TO TEMPS...AND IF CLOUDS
CLEAR WITH MIXING MAY BE TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR WARMEST GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL SIMILARLY BE AFFECTED BY CLOUDS...MAY BE TOO WARM GIVEN
AMOUNT OF COOLING THE PAST NIGHTS...THOUGH HAVE FAVORED CONTINUED
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS.
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME MID WEEK AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS SW US BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AS WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WITH SYSTEM...THOUGH ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BEST CHANCES COMING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTH. SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH QUICKLY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AGAIN BEHIND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST WITH HIGH
FRIDAY...THOUGH ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WAA WILL RETURN BEHIND
RETREATING HIGH AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN FOR WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...THOUGH TIMING OF WHEN
THE STRATUS FILLS IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. STRATUS DECK SHOULD LIFT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE STATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SKOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1235 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Mid level southwest flow this morning was pushing a weak vorticity
lobe across OK into southern KS. This was generating scattered
showers, most of it appears to not be reaching the ground per obs.
Meanwhile at the surface, the dry ridge axis held in place with
mostly cloudy skies and temps falling near 50 degrees by sunrise.
For today, recent runs from the HRRR and RUC carry this wave and
scattered light showers towards central and east central KS through
the afternoon. Moisture profiles suggest a low level cloud deck
around 3 kft may slowly scatter out by late afternoon while the mid
level clouds linger through the evening. I added a chance for
sprinkles as oppose to showers due to the very shallow low level
cloud deck and much of the forcing associated with moisture at 12
kft. In addition, there remains pockets of dry air in between these
two layers. Highs today were lowered a few degrees given the above
mentioned factors with readings in the upper 60s.
Tonight, skies remain mostly cloudy to overcast while ridging aloft
results in dry conditions. Insulation from cloud cover will keep
lows warmer compared to previous mornings in the lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Tuesday through Wednesday, a closed upper low over extreme western
AZ will dig southeast into northern Mexico. An upper level trough
embedded within the northern stream of the upper jet will move
onshore across the pacific northwest on Tuesday and dig east-
southeast into the northern high plains. Low-level CAA across the
northern plains will cause a surface front to push southward into
western NE through the day Wednesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop along the front during the afternoon
hours across northeast CO and western NE. The best rain chances will
be west and northwest of the CWA Wednesday afternoon. Southerly
winds to the east of the lee surface trough across the central and
southern high plains will allow high temperatures to warm into the
mid to upper 70s on Tuesday with highs around 80 degrees on
Wednesday.
Wednesday night through Thursday night, the ECMWF and GFS differ on
the amplitude of the H5 trough digging southeast across the northern
plains into the mid MS river valley. The GFS is more amplified with
the H5 trough allowing for stronger ascent across the CWA and a
better chance for showers and thunderstorms along the surface cold
front late Wednesday night into Thursday evening. The ECMWF is not
as amplified with the northern plains trough, as it digs into the
mid MS river valley. The ECMWF does not show much in the way of QPF
across the CWA, except for the southeast counties late Thursday
afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. At this time I`ll keep
slight chance pops in the forecast for Wednesday night and chance
pops Thursday into Thursday night. However if the GFS solution
converges towards the less amplified ECMWF, then POPs may have to be
lowered on Thursday. Once the front pushes south of the area late
Thursday night the showers should end across the southeast counties.
Highs Thursday will be around 80 degrees ahead of the front with mid
70s across north central KS behind the surface front.
Friday, there will be a brief cool down as a surface ridge builds
south-southwest from the upper midwest into eastern KS. Highs will
only reach the mid to upper 60s.
Saturday through Monday, highs will warm into the mid 70s on
Saturday with upper 70s to lower 80s Sunday and Monday as a southern
stream upper level ridge amplifies across the southern plains, due
to the retrogression of the upper low over northeast Mexico,
westward towards the Baja CA region.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday MORNING) ISSUED AT
1234 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
IFR ceilings are expected to continue through 19Z at MHK and through
20Z at TOP/FOE. A few sprinkles and/or an isolated shower is
possible through afternoon at MHK, but precipitation amounts would
be less than 0.01 inches. MVFR ceilings are then introduced at
TOP/FOE for the remainder of the TAF period. VFR conditions are
possible near the end of the period, but confidence in VFR ceilings
are low at this point due to light BL winds.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Baerg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
641 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Mid level southwest flow this morning was pushing a weak vorticity
lobe across OK into southern KS. This was generating scattered
showers, most of it appears to not be reaching the ground per obs.
Meanwhile at the surface, the dry ridge axis held in place with
mostly cloudy skies and temps falling near 50 degrees by sunrise.
For today, recent runs from the HRRR and RUC carry this wave and
scattered light showers towards central and east central KS through
the afternoon. Moisture profiles suggest a low level cloud deck
around 3 kft may slowly scatter out by late afternoon while the mid
level clouds linger through the evening. I added a chance for
sprinkles as oppose to showers due to the very shallow low level
cloud deck and much of the forcing associated with moisture at 12
kft. In addition, there remains pockets of dry air in between these
two layers. Highs today were lowered a few degrees given the above
mentioned factors with readings in the upper 60s.
Tonight, skies remain mostly cloudy to overcast while ridging aloft
results in dry conditions. Insulation from cloud cover will keep
lows warmer compared to previous mornings in the lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Tuesday through Wednesday, a closed upper low over extreme western
AZ will dig southeast into northern Mexico. An upper level trough
embedded within the northern stream of the upper jet will move
onshore across the pacific northwest on Tuesday and dig east-
southeast into the northern high plains. Low-level CAA across the
northern plains will cause a surface front to push southward into
western NE through the day Wednesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop along the front during the afternoon
hours across northeast CO and western NE. The best rain chances will
be west and northwest of the CWA Wednesday afternoon. Southerly
winds to the east of the lee surface trough across the central and
southern high plains will allow high temperatures to warm into the
mid to upper 70s on Tuesday with highs around 80 degrees on
Wednesday.
Wednesday night through Thursday night, the ECMWF and GFS differ on
the amplitude of the H5 trough digging southeast across the northern
plains into the mid MS river valley. The GFS is more amplified with
the H5 trough allowing for stronger ascent across the CWA and a
better chance for showers and thunderstorms along the surface cold
front late Wednesday night into Thursday evening. The ECMWF is not
as amplified with the northern plains trough, as it digs into the
mid MS river valley. The ECMWF does not show much in the way of QPF
across the CWA, except for the southeast counties late Thursday
afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. At this time I`ll keep
slight chance pops in the forecast for Wednesday night and chance
pops Thursday into Thursday night. However if the GFS solution
converges towards the less amplified ECMWF, then POPs may have to be
lowered on Thursday. Once the front pushes south of the area late
Thursday night the showers should end across the southeast counties.
Highs Thursday will be around 80 degrees ahead of the front with mid
70s across north central KS behind the surface front.
Friday, there will be a brief cool down as a surface ridge builds
south-southwest from the upper midwest into eastern KS. Highs will
only reach the mid to upper 60s.
Saturday through Monday, highs will warm into the mid 70s on
Saturday with upper 70s to lower 80s Sunday and Monday as a southern
stream upper level ridge amplifies across the southern plains, due
to the retrogression of the upper low over northeast Mexico,
westward towards the Baja CA region.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
IFR cigs this morning will be difficult to lift based on the weak
winds within the boundary layer. Guidance somewhat varies on when
conditions will lift to MVFR during the afternoon or early
evening period. There is a possibility the cigs may remain at MVFR
overnight if they can dissipate before sunset.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
704 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED WSW MID/UPPER LEVEL NRN STREAM
FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SE MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM ERN MANITOBA
INTO THE NW CORNER OF MN. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILED FROM
SRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. VIS LOOP INDICATED LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI BUT WITH SOME CLEARING FAR WEST AS
DEVELOPING SW FLOW BRINGS IN SOME DRIER AIR. WEBCAMS...RADAR AND SFC
VSBY INDICATED THAT THE PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM NEAR ESC-MNM AND OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPPER MI HAS DIMINISHED.
TONIGHT... EXPECT THE MANITOBA SHRTWV TO LIFT ENE TO NEAR JAMES BAY
BY 12Z...DRAGGING THE FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. 925-850 MB WINDS
VEERING FROM SW TO W SHOULD HELP BRING A PERIOD OF CLEARING.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN LATE. SO...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP OFF
QUICKLY...EXPECT MINS ONLY TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S BEFORE CLOUDS
MOVE BACK IN. SOME DRIZZLE MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE THIS
EVENING BUT THE VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DRYING SHOULD ALSO HELP
TO END ANY LIGHT PCPN.
TUE...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA. THE
STRONGEST 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE SHRTWV WILL REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAK FORCING INTO THE
ERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. EVEN WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE...MIXING
THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 7C SHOULD MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BE DEPARTING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD....ALLOWING A HIGH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT DEPARTS...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS. 12Z NAM WAS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE ON THAT IDEA (MORE THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN AND OTHER MODELS)...BOTH WITH THE MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR...SO WILL AT LEAST SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER LOWER LEVEL
AIR WORKS BACK IN. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WOULD EXPECT DIURNAL HEATING TO LEAD TO CU DEVELOPMENT
AND WILL SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN
AREAS.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE TIED TO A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL
COME ONSHORE TOMORROW. THE WAVE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...MODELS STILL DIFFERING SOME ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND IN TURN THE SWATH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW. OVERALL...LIKE A GENERAL COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WITH THE LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND THEN QUICKLY DEPARTING ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE U.P.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TIED TO THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST
RAIN (STRONG 925-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALIGNED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.P.).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW...LEADING TO A
NICE DAY ON FRIDAY. BUT THAT WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MID-HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRUSH
THE AREA SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. BEST MOISTURE/FORCING
STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW...SO WILL JUST SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL ALLOW HIGH
END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS TO PERSIST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES THEN.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING CIGS NEAR MVFR LATE TUE
MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM A HIGH IN
QUEBEC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT MAINLY OVER WEST AND CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW
MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH WINDS PEAKING AROUND 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
419 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED WSW MID/UPPER LEVEL NRN STREAM
FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SE MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM ERN MANITOBA
INTO THE NW CORNER OF MN. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILED FROM
SRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. VIS LOOP INDICATED LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI BUT WITH SOME CLEARING FAR WEST AS
DEVELOPING SW FLOW BRINGS IN SOME DRIER AIR. WEBCAMS...RADAR AND SFC
VSBY INDICATED THAT THE PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM NEAR ESC-MNM AND OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPPER MI HAS DIMINISHED.
TONIGHT... EXPECT THE MANITOBA SHRTWV TO LIFT ENE TO NEAR JAMES BAY
BY 12Z...DRAGGING THE FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. 925-850 MB WINDS
VEERING FROM SW TO W SHOULD HELP BRING A PERIOD OF CLEARING.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN LATE. SO...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP OFF
QUICKLY...EXPECT MINS ONLY TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S BEFORE CLOUDS
MOVE BACK IN. SOME DRIZZLE MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE THIS
EVENING BUT THE VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DRYING SHOULD ALSO HELP
TO END ANY LIGHT PCPN.
TUE...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA. THE
STRONGEST 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE SHRTWV WILL REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAK FORCING INTO THE
ERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. EVEN WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE...MIXING
THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 7C SHOULD MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BE DEPARTING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD....ALLOWING A HIGH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT DEPARTS...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS. 12Z NAM WAS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE ON THAT IDEA (MORE THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN AND OTHER MODELS)...BOTH WITH THE MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR...SO WILL AT LEAST SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER LOWER LEVEL
AIR WORKS BACK IN. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WOULD EXPECT DIURNAL HEATING TO LEAD TO CU DEVELOPMENT
AND WILL SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN
AREAS.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE TIED TO A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL
COME ONSHORE TOMORROW. THE WAVE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...MODELS STILL DIFFERING SOME ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND IN TURN THE SWATH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW. OVERALL...LIKE A GENERAL COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WITH THE LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND THEN QUICKLY DEPARTING ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE U.P.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TIED TO THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST
RAIN (STRONG 925-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALIGNED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.P.).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW...LEADING TO A
NICE DAY ON FRIDAY. BUT THAT WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MID-HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRUSH
THE AREA SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. BEST MOISTURE/FORCING
STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW...SO WILL JUST SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL ALLOW HIGH END MVFR TO
LOW END VFR CIGS TO PERSIST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE WINDS BECOME SW TOWARD THIS EVENING DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW CIGS TO SCATTER OUT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING CIGS NEAR MVFR INTO TUE
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM A HIGH IN
QUEBEC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT MAINLY OVER WEST AND CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW
MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH WINDS PEAKING AROUND 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS JACKSON MS
833 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE... PAST FEW HRRR RUNS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS
TONIGHT ACROSS FAR EASTERN MS IN ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK H850
CONVERGENCE AND QUICKLY DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SINCE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CONSOLIDATING IN THIS GENERAL AREA AT PRESENT THE
PROSPECT OF A FEW RATHER INSIGNIFICANT SHOWERS DOES NOT APPEAR WAY
OFF BASE SO 10 PERCENT POPS INCLUDED IN THOSE FAR EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH THE WEE HOURS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST WAS
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE
FOCUSED IN EASTERN MS AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT AND THE PROSPECT OF ANY DENSE FOG BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
DOES NOT LOOK HIGH. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
REGION FROM 5 AM THROUGH AROUND 830 AM WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED CLOUDS
TOMORROW WILL BE BASED PRIMARILY AT 5 KFT AND ABOVE. ALSO OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT
CBM/GTR/MEI/NMM/PIB/HBG. /BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
IT HAS BEEN DRIER IN JACKSON, MS (2.84 INCHES) THAN PHOENIX, AZ (3.32
INCHES) SINCE JULY 1ST AND KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES REMAIN ABOVE
700 FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE ARKLAMISS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH INCREASINGLY
HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE TENDENCY TO OVER-ACHIEVE IN TERMS
OF MIXING...HAVE GONE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP WITH
LOWER 90S COMMON TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND EVEN SOME SLIGHT SHOWER
CHANCES THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...AND THIS MAY
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER. /EC/
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES CONTINUED TO BE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAINFALL AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW
STORMS FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S. MODELS SHOWS THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL CUT
OFF EAST OF BAJA AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO
THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD UPPER RIDGING WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT IN THE SOUTH BY EARLY SUNDAY. THERE
WILL BE WEAK INSTABILITY FOR SOME SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS A LITTLE BETTER WAVE
AMPLIFICATION THAT COULD HELP GENERATE A FEW STORMS. MODELS TRIED TO
PUT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTH...BUT OPTED FOR A DRIER SOLUTION AS CONVERGENCE BECOMES TOO
WEAK AND PWATS LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH WITH DISSIPATING FRONT. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. WEEKEND HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTH...THEN
WILL WARM UP TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE FROM
THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. /17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 64 90 66 88 / 4 2 3 20
MERIDIAN 63 87 65 86 / 14 11 7 20
VICKSBURG 60 90 65 91 / 0 1 2 11
HATTIESBURG 65 90 65 88 / 13 7 5 11
NATCHEZ 62 88 66 89 / 0 1 2 12
GREENVILLE 63 90 65 89 / 0 1 4 14
GREENWOOD 62 90 65 89 / 1 2 2 15
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
BB/EC/17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
334 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...WE FINALLY GOT RID OF THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK
THIS MORNING... BUT LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A RESURGENCE OF
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. THE HRRR DATA IS SHOWING
THIS CLOUD DECK...BUT IT SEEMS A LITTLE FAST IN DISSIPATING IT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DECK LOOKS TO BE MORE MODULATED BY MIXING...THUS
EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING.
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INCH TO THE EAST AND DRY AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. ALREADY TEMPS TODAY HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S...AND EXPECT THIS WARMTH TO CONTINUE WITH VALUES APPROACHING 90
BY WESDNESDAY.
COLD CORE LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY AND ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PULL EAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
NEVER DO MUCH TO INCREASE MOISTURE AS LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL BE
ABOUT AS MUCH THAT CAN BE MUSTERED. THUS...AM ONLY LOOKING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST AS MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO TREND
DRIER./26/
&&
.AVIATION...NORTHEAST FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRATOCUMULUS...
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HKS/JAN TO GTR CORRIDOR...BUT
MOST CIGS HAVE MIXED UP TO ABOVE 3000 FT. RECENT GUIDANCE FORECAST
THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION PATTERN TO DIMINISH. SO LESS STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...CLEARER SKIES
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE FOG POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF TUESDAY. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 62 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 6
MERIDIAN 61 85 61 87 / 1 2 1 4
VICKSBURG 59 88 60 90 / 0 0 0 5
HATTIESBURG 62 86 64 88 / 2 2 2 5
NATCHEZ 61 85 63 87 / 0 1 1 4
GREENVILLE 60 86 63 89 / 1 1 2 3
GREENWOOD 59 87 62 88 / 1 1 1 4
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
26/EC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
651 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SPREAD
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINING OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER
LOW MOVING OFF OF THE FLORIDA COAST. THAT SAME IMAGERY INDICATED A
SMALL AREA OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT...WHERE THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
WHILE THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED MINIMAL DISCERNABLE
ECHOES AS OF THIS WRITING EXCEPT TOWARD KCTZ AND KGSB...OBSERVATIONS
SHOW AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW A BAND OF VERY COOL
CLOUD TOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...OVER PARTS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS FORECASTS THE GREATEST 700MB UVV FOR THE DAY...JUST SOUTH
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OR IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHERN BORDERS OF
THE COUNTIES FROM SCOTLAND TO SAMPSON. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GFS
FORECASTS A MODEST RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 40KT 500MB JET
AROUND THE UPPER LOW...AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENCE.
850MB THETA-E VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
A GRADUAL DECLINE FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...RAPIDLY DRYING
TONIGHT. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH GRADUAL DRYING DEPICTED IN
THOSE SOUNDINGS FROM LATE MORNING IN THE TRIAD TO THE MID-EVENING
TOWARD KFAY. THINK THAT LOW-LEVEL DRIZZLE AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS
LIKELY THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING...WITH THE CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE RAP
AND NAM ARE FASTER THAN THE GFS IN DIMINISHING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...IT IS INTERESTING HOW THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OR
SO OF THE HRRR WRF ARE MUCH MORE BULLISH ON LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGH IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH INTO THE EVENING FOR THE FOUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LIFT AND DIFFLUENCE OVERHEAD.
THINKING IS THAT IF THERE ARE ANY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
THEY WOULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THOSE AREAS...POSSIBLY TO AREAS
CREEPING IN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KCTZ TO KMEB. OVERNIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE A CLEARING TREND...BUT LATE TONIGHT THE GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD KFAY
AND KRWI...SUCH THAT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE TO END THE NIGHT AND START TUESDAY.
WITH RECENT WIND GUSTS NEAR KINT TO JUST OVER 30KTS...AND 925MB
WIND FORECASTS THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z OF 35KT OR GREATER ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH LOWEST LEVEL MIXING...WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA TO JUST
BEFORE 18Z. THEN...THE 925MB WINDS SHOULD HAVE SUBSIDED SOME OVER
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXING. DO NOT
TYPICALLY LIKE TO PIECEMEAL ADVISORIES DIMINISHING BUT THE
CONSENSUS OF EVIDENCE SUGGESTS AS THE 925MB WIND DIMINISHES...THE
GUSTINESS OF THE WIND SHOULD RELAX IN THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR PRIOR TO
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOWS UP SOMEWHAT IN THE LOW-
LEVEL DEPICTION OF MIXING ON THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. AS SUCH...
WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY TO AROUND U.S. 1 TO 4 PM AND LEAVE
IT TO 8 PM TOWARD INTERSTATE 95. HIGHS TODAY IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE MAIN ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. AS NOTED
ABOVE...THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI. WILL NOTE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE WHERE THE 925MB MOISTURE IS HIGH
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. ANY LOW
CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD LIFT INTO CU BASED ON THE GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT TYPE OF
DAY THAN THOSE RECENTLY WITH PERIODS OF SUNSHINE. THE GFS SUGGESTS
SOME HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD FILTER SOME
LATE AFTERNOON SUN IF IT VERIFIES. MIXING SUGGESTS A FEW GUSTS IN
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE TEENS KNOTS IN MOST
PLACES...POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF NEAR 20KT GUSTS TOWARD KRWI AND
KFAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO NOTE A WIND IMPACT CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AS A PERISTENT UPPER SHORT WAVE MIGRATES AROSS
UPPER MID WEST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NUDGED EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO SPILL SOUTH DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDINESS AS THE UPPER FLOW
FLATTENS AND TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. TEMPS WILL EDGE
UPWARDS WITH HEIGHT RISES AND INSOLATION...LOW AND MID 70S WITH MINS
FROM 55 TO 60.
THE GFS HAS SPED UP THE TRANSLATION OF ITS MORE SHARPLY DEFINED
UPPER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...AND THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WOULD BE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AS
OPPOSED TO ABOUT A 12 HOUR DELAY ON THE 00Z ECMWF. REGARDLESS...
MOISTURE ADVECTION PRIOR TO THE FRONT IS LIMITED AND WOULD EXPECT
ONLY A FEW PREFRONTAL SHOWERS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING
THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS IN THE
WEST FRIDAY EVENING...AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S AGAIN FRIDAY...WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MILD COOL AIR
ADVECTION HOLDING TEMPS IN THE SEASONABLE 70 TO 75 RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY TODAY. GRADUALLY...DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE...WITH
THE FREQUENCY AND SPEEDS OF THE GUSTINESS ALSO DIMINISHING SLOWLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AROUND 1500FT TO
NEAR 40KT NEAR KFAY TO ABOUT 03Z BEFORE THOSE VALUES DIMINISH TO
30KT BY 06Z. AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES...MORE NOTICEABLE SURFACE
GUSTINESS SHOULD WANE BY SUNSET ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...AND DURING THE EVENING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND TOWARD
KFAY.
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY TO IFR...
TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY AND MAY RESULT IN SOME PROBABILITY
OF A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...IF THE GFS MOISTURE FORECAST VERIFIES.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-
042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>010-
024>026-040-041-073>076-083-084.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ021>023-038-
039.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
318 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SPREAD
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINING OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER
LOW MOVING OFF OF THE FLORIDA COAST. THAT SAME IMAGERY INDICATED A
SMALL AREA OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT...WHERE THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
WHILE THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED MINIMAL DISCERNABLE
ECHOES AS OF THIS WRITING EXCEPT TOWARD KCTZ AND KGSB...OBSERVATIONS
SHOW AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW A BAND OF VERY COOL
CLOUD TOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...OVER PARTS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS FORECASTS THE GREATEST 700MB UVV FOR THE DAY...JUST SOUTH
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OR IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHERN BORDERS OF
THE COUNTIES FROM SCOTLAND TO SAMPSON. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GFS
FORECASTS A MODEST RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 40KT 500MB JET
AROUND THE UPPER LOW...AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENCE.
850MB THETA-E VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
A GRADUAL DECLINE FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...RAPIDLY DRYING
TONIGHT. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH GRADUAL DRYING DEPICTED IN
THOSE SOUNDINGS FROM LATE MORNING IN THE TRIAD TO THE MID-EVENING
TOWARD KFAY. THINK THAT LOW-LEVEL DRIZZLE AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS
LIKELY THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING...WITH THE CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE RAP
AND NAM ARE FASTER THAN THE GFS IN DIMINISHING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...IT IS INTERESTING HOW THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OR
SO OF THE HRRR WRF ARE MUCH MORE BULLISH ON LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGH IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH INTO THE EVENING FOR THE FOUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LIFT AND DIFFLUENCE OVERHEAD.
THINKING IS THAT IF THERE ARE ANY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
THEY WOULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THOSE AREAS...POSSIBLY TO AREAS
CREEPING IN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KCTZ TO KMEB. OVERNIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE A CLEARING TREND...BUT LATE TONIGHT THE GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD KFAY
AND KRWI...SUCH THAT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE TO END THE NIGHT AND START TUESDAY.
WITH RECENT WIND GUSTS NEAR KINT TO JUST OVER 30KTS...AND 925MB
WIND FORECASTS THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z OF 35KT OR GREATER ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH LOWEST LEVEL MIXING...WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA TO JUST
BEFORE 18Z. THEN...THE 925MB WINDS SHOULD HAVE SUBSIDED SOME OVER
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXING. DO NOT
TYPICALLY LIKE TO PIECEMEAL ADVISORIES DIMINISHING BUT THE
CONSENSUS OF EVIDENCE SUGGESTS AS THE 925MB WIND DIMINISHES...THE
GUSTINESS OF THE WIND SHOULD RELAX IN THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR PRIOR TO
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOWS UP SOMEWHAT IN THE LOW-
LEVEL DEPICTION OF MIXING ON THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. AS SUCH...
WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY TO AROUND U.S. 1 TO 4 PM AND LEAVE
IT TO 8 PM TOWARD INTERSTATE 95. HIGHS TODAY IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE MAIN ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. AS NOTED
ABOVE...THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI. WILL NOTE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE WHERE THE 925MB MOISTURE IS HIGH
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. ANY LOW
CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD LIFT INTO CU BASED ON THE GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT TYPE OF
DAY THAN THOSE RECENTLY WITH PERIODS OF SUNSHINE. THE GFS SUGGESTS
SOME HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD FILTER SOME
LATE AFTERNOON SUN IF IT VERIFIES. MIXING SUGGESTS A FEW GUSTS IN
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE TEENS KNOTS IN MOST
PLACES...POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF NEAR 20KT GUSTS TOWARD KRWI AND
KFAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO NOTE A WIND IMPACT CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AS A PERISTENT UPPER SHORT WAVE MIGRATES AROSS
UPPER MID WEST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NUDGED EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO SPILL SOUTH DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDINESS AS THE UPPER FLOW
FLATTENS AND TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. TEMPS WILL EDGE
UPWARDS WITH HEIGHT RISES AND INSOLATION...LOW AND MID 70S WITH MINS
FROM 55 TO 60.
THE GFS HAS SPED UP THE TRANSLATION OF ITS MORE SHARPLY DEFINED
UPPER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...AND THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WOULD BE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AS
OPPOSED TO ABOUT A 12 HOUR DELAY ON THE 00Z ECMWF. REGARDLESS...
MOISTURE ADVECTION PRIOR TO THE FRONT IS LIMITED AND WOULD EXPECT
ONLY A FEW PREFRONTAL SHOWERS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING
THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS IN THE
WEST FRIDAY EVENING...AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S AGAIN FRIDAY...WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MILD COOL AIR
ADVECTION HOLDING TEMPS IN THE SEASONABLE 70 TO 75 RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS...WITH A SMATTERING OF LOW MVFR
CEILINGS...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TODAY.
GRADUALLY...DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE
06Z VALID TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE...WITH THE FREQUENCY AND
SPEEDS OF THE GUSTINESS ALSO DIMINISHING SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AROUND 1500FT TO NEAR 40KT NEAR
KFAY TO ABOUT 03Z BEFORE THOSE VALUES DIMINISH TO 30KT BY 06Z. AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES...NOTICEABLE SURFACE GUSTINESS SHOULD WANE BY
SUNSET ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND DURING THE
EVENING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND TOWARD KFAY.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LOW CLOUDS TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY
AND MAY RESULT IN SOME PROBABILITY OF A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. LOW CLOUDS
COULD LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...IF THE GFS MOISTURE
FORECAST VERIFIES.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-
042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>010-
024>026-040-041-073>076-083-084.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ021>023-038-
039.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
957 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST TO CAPTURE
LATEST CONDITIONS. CONSIDERED ADDING PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE HEART
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP DO NOT
SHOW VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT...SO LEFT IT OUT FOR
NOW. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT MAY ALSO HELP LIMIT THE
FOG POTENTIAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING H5 WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ANY RAIN CHANCES UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES COMING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A POOL OF COOL AIR MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR MAINTAINING AN AREA OF CLOUDS TODAY...AND THE
REMNANTS OF THESE CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS MCLEAN COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS DELIVER A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND WITH A
90KT H300 JET ENTRANCE REGION MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING A SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE IN PLACE ORIENTED
NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. THESE FEATURES MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
A MINOT-BISMARCK LINE DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN PERHAPS A
LINGERING SHOWER IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S IN THE JAMES
VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE SURFACE TROUGH...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY AND
COOLER DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. A COOL NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER 30S FOR LOWS FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY...WITH 40S FARTHER WEST.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AN LOWER 80S...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. THEN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
HAVE GONE WITH A VFR FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KBIS...KMOT AND
KJMS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS
KJMS HAS THE BEST CHANCE...SO ADDED A PROB30 GROUP LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT KEPT THE CHANCES OUT OF KBIS AND KMOT FOR NOW. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING...BUT WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH...BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
645 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
05/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z AT KPNC AS LAYER OF STRATUS
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FROM NORTHEAST OK. CURRENTLY DO NOT
EXPECT THIS STRATUS DECK TO MAKE IT INTO KOKC/KOUN BUT WILL WATCH
CLOSELY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. RAIN WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MOST MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING PERSISTENCE/STRENGTH OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH S/WV TROUGH LIFTING NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HRRR IS THE PRIMARY MODEL USED FOR THE FIRST 6
TO 12 HOURS FORECAST AS IT IS HANDLING LIGHT PRECIP MUCH BETTER.
HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE
DURATION OF MOISTENING WILL RESIDE AND HAVE BETTER CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING RAIN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHTNING BUT THERE WILL BE
MUCH MORE COVERAGE OF PRECIP THAT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR EAST AS WICHITA FALLS...PAULS VALLEY...OKC
METRO...AND STILLWATER THIS MORNING AND INTO AFTERNOON NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-40. LOWERED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH IF PRECIP
LINGERS LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN EXPECTED.
DRY AND WARMER PERIOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SW U.S. UPPER LOW AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH. GFS HAS COME AROUND TO ECM LINE OF
THINKING WRT MENTIONED UPPER LOW. THIS WILL YIELD OVERALL LOWER
CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT NEAR THE MENTIONED FRONT. THIS FRONT HANDLED SIMILARLY BY
ALL MODELS AND SHOULD MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN
ACTIVITY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW. FAIRLY
QUICKLY WARM-UP EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH
BUILDING RIDGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 55 82 60 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 73 53 83 58 / 60 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 55 84 60 / 20 0 0 0
GAGE OK 70 53 81 58 / 60 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 71 52 80 57 / 30 0 0 0
DURANT OK 79 56 85 61 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
414 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MOST MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING PERSISTENCE/STRENGTH OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH S/WV TROUGH LIFTING NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HRRR IS THE PRIMARY MODEL USED FOR THE FIRST 6
TO 12 HOURS FORECAST AS IT IS HANDLING LIGHT PRECIP MUCH BETTER.
HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE
DURATION OF MOISTENING WILL RESIDE AND HAVE BETTER CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING RAIN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHTNING BUT THERE WILL BE
MUCH MORE COVERAGE OF PRECIP THAT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR EAST AS WICHITA FALLS...PAULS VALLEY...OKC
METRO...AND STILLWATER THIS MORNING AND INTO AFTERNOON NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-40. LOWERED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH IF PRECIP
LINGERS LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN EXPECTED.
DRY AND WARMER PERIOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SW U.S. UPPER LOW AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH. GFS HAS COME AROUND TO ECM LINE OF
THINKING WRT MENTIONED UPPER LOW. THIS WILL YIELD OVERALL LOWER
CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT NEAR THE MENTIONED FRONT. THIS FRONT HANDLED SIMILARLY BY
ALL MODELS AND SHOULD MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN
ACTIVITY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW. FAIRLY
QUICKLY WARM-UP EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH
BUILDING RIDGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 55 82 60 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 73 53 83 58 / 70 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 55 84 60 / 20 0 0 0
GAGE OK 70 53 81 58 / 60 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 71 52 80 57 / 30 0 0 0
DURANT OK 79 56 85 61 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
700 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE HAVASU CITY ARIZONA WAS
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST...AND EXPECTED TO TAKE MORE OF A SOUTHEAST
TURN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW TO NEAR DOUGLAS ARIZONA BY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST THAN
AVAILABLE TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET WAS
ARCING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE AND
AN AREA OF LIFT EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD NEAR THE STATE LINE
OVERNIGHT. MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS AT LEAST BRING PRECIPITATION CLOSE
TO THE STATE LINE IF NOT SLIGHTLY EAST OF IT OVERNIGHT WHILE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE HRRR SOLUTION HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS EASTWARD EXTENT
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE OF THUNDER
ALONG WESTERN BORDER OVERNIGHT WHILE TRIMMING THE SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION A BIT FURTHER WEST.
A SECOND AREA OF LIFT IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ALSO
A BIT FURTHER WEST OF PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. DRY AIR TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WOULD BE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY PLUME TO ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BACKS...AND WOULD NOT BE A POSITIVE FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
SO WE HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHILE DECREASING THE FORECAST CHANCES AS
FAR WEST AS THE INTERSTATE 27 CORRIDOR. FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR THUNDER CHANCES AS
WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD OVERNIGHT...SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE...AND THIS WARMER START
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO A WARM DAY ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES
WITH LESS OPAQUE CLOUD COVER. TRENDED HIGHS WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED AROUND THE PROGRESSION OF THE
CLOSED AND CUTOFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WHAT
IMPACTS IT WILL HAVE ON WEST TEXAS MID-LATE WEEK. AS IS THE CASE FOR
CUTOFF SYSTEMS...FORECASTING IT/S EVENTUAL PATH IS ALWAYS A
DIFFICULT AND OFTEN HUMBLING PROSPECT. THAT SAID...THE LATEST NWP
CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR EAST WITH THE UPPER
LOW...DIGGING IT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THEN
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO /CENTERED WELL WEST OF EL PASO/ ON
THURSDAY BEFORE IT BEGINS RETROGRADING TOWARD THE BAJA LATE WEEK.
THIS TREND RESULTS IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAN HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. ATTM...IT STILL DOES APPEAR THE UPPER LOW WILL COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE/LIFT TO THE WESTERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...PERHAPS EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPROCK ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE MOIST
TROPOSPHERE /WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.20 INCHES/
EFFICIENT RAINERS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT TRACKS REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. DRIER
AIR AND WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DO CALL
INTO QUESTION HOW FAR EAST THE BETTER/HEAVIER RAIN CHANCES WILL
MAKE IT. IN FACT...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER TIGHT
RAINFALL GRADIENT LIKE WE SAW WITH THE PAST WEEKEND RAINS WHERE
THE WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES AND THE EASTERN MOST ZONES
MAY JUST SEE LIGHT AMOUNTS. PER THE TRENDS...WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID- TO
LATE-WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A HEAVY RAIN
MENTION ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING TO
MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS ADDED TO THE HWO. AS SPC HAS NOTED...IF
ENOUGH HEATING/INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO VISIT THE WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER
LOW BACKS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE PICTURE FROM THE NORTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH CRUISES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME HEATING MAY
RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY /ALONG WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION/ TO SPUR
ADDITION SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WEST TEXAS IS BENEATH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW
MOVING BACK OUT INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION. ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING WAVE WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY SEND A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE REGION NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD PROVIDE MINIMAL
COOLING.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...DECENT MOISTURE AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES WILL
TEND TO KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES SUPPRESSED THOUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY UP ON THE CAPROCK. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE BREEZES RETURN. IN FACT...THE LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS UP NEAR 90 DEGREES BY
SUNDAY. WE HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...BUT
NOT QUITE THAT WARM YET. THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBLE WEAK FRONT AND
MINOR COOLING MOVING IN AT SOME POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 56 69 53 67 / 40 60 70 60
TULIA 55 73 55 72 / 10 40 50 50
PLAINVIEW 56 75 56 73 / 10 30 60 60
LEVELLAND 55 75 56 71 / 20 50 80 70
LUBBOCK 58 77 57 73 / 10 30 60 60
DENVER CITY 55 73 57 69 / 40 60 80 70
BROWNFIELD 57 76 58 71 / 20 50 80 70
CHILDRESS 59 83 60 83 / 0 10 20 30
SPUR 58 83 60 78 / 0 10 30 50
ASPERMONT 58 87 63 84 / 0 10 20 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
955 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM DULUTH TO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING IN THIS REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED...CLOUD TRENDS AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION BEFORE EXITING EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE NIGHT.
THE MID-CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EXIT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. A NARROW BAND OF LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT...BUT POSE NO THREAT OF PRECIP. WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH COULD CREATE PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG IN THE
COLD SPOTS OVER N-C WI. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
PCPN TRENDS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND QPF AMOUNTS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
PCPN WILL DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE NW TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A 40-50 KT LLJ JET AND A COUPLED UPPER
JET DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
NORTHWEST WI. THIS FORCING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THURSDAY MORNING AND INTERACT WITH PWATS OF 1.00-1.33 INCHES AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (H8 LI`S OF 0 TO -2) TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A H8 WARM
FRONT WILL RESIDE... AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE
STRONGEST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY
AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH.
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE STORM TRACK DISPLACED WELL TO OUR NORTH...SO THIS
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE MOVG THROUGH NORTHERN WI
ON TUESDAY MAY BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE
THAT FAR OUT IS LOW. A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
BANDS OF MAINLY MID LEVEL VFR CIGS PASSING OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SLIDES OVER. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE FRONTS WAKE TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
515 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION
CENTERED AT AROUND 850MB THAT HAS MAINTAINED THE LOW OVERCAST DECK.
SOME DRIZZLE IS STILL BEING REPORTED OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA BUT HAS
GENERALLY ENDED ELSEWHERE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS
APPROACHING THE THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND PARTIAL CLEARING IS
OCCURRING WEST AND NORTH OF EAU CLAIRE AND MEDFORD. LOOKING FURTHER
WEST...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS. CLOUD TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
PUSH EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND FINALLY HELP TO
SCOUR OUT THESE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS. BUT UPSTREAM OBS DO NOT
SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR COMPLETELY AND WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY. THEN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AND CREATE BROKEN CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 40S.
TUESDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SOUTHEAST
AND REACH NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF
MID CLOUDS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A
MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING. BUT RH THINS OUT SOME IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND THE AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...SO WILL STICK
WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER
DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
PCPN TRENDS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND QPF AMOUNTS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY.
PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
PCPN WILL DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A 45-50 KT LLJ JET AND A COUPLED UPPER JET
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES NORTHWEST
WI. THIS FORCING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY MORNING
AND INTERACT WITH PWATS OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES AND SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (H8 LI`S OF 0 TO -2) TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A H8 WARM FRONT WILL RESIDE...
AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT (ESPECIALLY THE EVENING HOURS)...UNTIL THE UPPER TROF
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...STRONG WAA MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO FAR NE WI ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NORTHERN WI ON
MONDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE IFR/MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING. COLD AIR AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE 850 MB LEVEL HAS
ERODED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
WAS WORKING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. MAINLY MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WERE
NOTED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF CLEARING OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOW FAST THESE LOW CLOUDS
DEPART EASTERN WISCONSIN IS THE PRIMARY AVIATION CHALLENGE...TREND
INDICATES VERY SLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. AREA WHICH DOES
CLEAR FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT COULD SEE PATCHES OF LIFR
FOG LATE TONIGHT. CONTINUED DRIER AIR ON WESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY
WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR LEVELS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION
CENTERED AT AROUND 850MB THAT HAS MAINTAINED THE LOW OVERCAST DECK.
SOME DRIZZLE IS STILL BEING REPORTED OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA BUT HAS
GENERALLY ENDED ELSEWHERE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS
APPROACHING THE THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND PARTIAL CLEARING IS
OCCURRING WEST AND NORTH OF EAU CLAIRE AND MEDFORD. LOOKING FURTHER
WEST...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS. CLOUD TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
PUSH EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND FINALLY HELP TO
SCOUR OUT THESE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS. BUT UPSTREAM OBS DO NOT
SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR COMPLETELY AND WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY. THEN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AND CREATE BROKEN CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 40S.
TUESDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SOUTHEAST
AND REACH NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF
MID CLOUDS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A
MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING. BUT RH THINS OUT SOME IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND THE AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...SO WILL STICK
WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER
DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
PCPN TRENDS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND QPF AMOUNTS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY.
PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
PCPN WILL DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A 45-50 KT LLJ JET AND A COUPLED UPPER JET
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES NORTHWEST
WI. THIS FORCING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY MORNING
AND INTERACT WITH PWATS OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES AND SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (H8 LI`S OF 0 TO -2) TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A H8 WARM FRONT WILL RESIDE...
AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT (ESPECIALLY THE EVENING HOURS)...UNTIL THE UPPER TROF
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...STRONG WAA MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO FAR NE WI ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NORTHERN WI ON
MONDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO BROKEN IFR/MVFR
CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON...IF NOT
LONGER...PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS
RATHER HIGH...A PERIOD OF CLEARING COULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO IFR/MVFR VSBYS
DEVELOPING. THEN 5000-7000 FT CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1113 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND NOSING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH MOIST ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RISING OVER THE BOUNDARY. THE MID-LEVELS ARE NOT SATURATED
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP JUDGING FROM 12Z SOUNDINGS...BUT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXISTS BELOW 800MB FOR A LOW OVERCAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE OVERCAST LIES JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. CLOUD TRENDS AND
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN DRAPED
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND EVER SO SLIGHTLY LIFTS NORTHWEST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE SATURATED LAYER
WILL GROW THROUGH 700MB ALONG AND EAST OF THE FOX VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE BROKEN TO OVERCAST WITH CLOUD BASES
THAT LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THOUGH OVER N-C AND CENTRAL WI. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE DURING THE MORNING SINCE
THE FRONT HARDLY BUDGES. BUT THEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PICK UP
MOMENTUM TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE
SOME CLEARING TAKE PLACE OVER N-C AND CENTRAL WI WI. TOUGH TO SEE
MUCH CLEARING FURTHER EAST THOUGH. WARMER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PCPN CHANCES AND TIMING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE NEXT
WORK WEEK. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SAG SOUTH ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MAKE
A PUSH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK...
A DRY FCST IS ANTICIPATED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDS NGT
AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING LATE WEDS NGT...AFFECTING THE
ENTIRE REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN PULLING OUT THURSDAY EVENING.
STRONG DYNAMICS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PCPN AMOUNTS OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...AS WELL AS ISOLD/SCT TSTMS. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY...BUT SUBSEQUENT FCSTS MAY NEED TO RAISE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL.
ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHWOODS...MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE PLEASANT WEATHER WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MVFR CIGS WITH AN AREA OF IFR CIGS FROM CENTRAL WI TO
THE FOX CITIES WILL DETERIORATE TO MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY WORK
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
ON MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FLOW BECOMES LIGHT WEST. CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG...BUT BEYOND THE NEXT TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
512 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BASED ON MODEL AND SATELLITE TRENDS. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
COUNTIES...THEN WILL TRANSITION SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES ACROSS OUR COUNTIES. BASED ON CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINT SPREADS...WE BELIEVE THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME AREAS OF FOG THAT DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THOUGH FOG COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS.
WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING A DRYING OUT PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT MOVES EAST OF OUR COUNTIES WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING DUE TO WEST AND NORTHWEST LOW
AND MID LEVEL WINDS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT FOR EARLY OCTOBER DUE TO
MIXING AND AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY AT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK PASSING DRY COLD FRONT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AND LESS WIND AND CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
FRIDAY...BUT MODELS SHOW MARGINAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE SO EXPECT MAINLY JUST SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 70S AND
80S ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY SFC WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WHILE WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY BREEZIER ACROSS THE CWA AS
A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS US/CANADIAN BORDER AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE
INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. COULD SEE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
INCREASE AS A RESULT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER FOR
MONDAY. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WITHIN ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE 00Z TAFS. WITH CONVECTION IN THE
FORECAST...INSTABILITY COULD KEEP CONDITIONS MVFR TO VFR.
HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR SHOWING POCKETS OF IFR/LIFR NEAR KCYS AND
KSNY. DID TREND THE FORECASTS TOWARDS THE HRRR WITH A PERIOD THIS
EVENING OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MINIMAL CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY BASED ON PROJECTED
HUMIDITIES AND WINDS. HOWEVER...OVER THE WEEKEND...HUMIDITIES WILL
DECREASE ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS...THUS INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
504 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2015
TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D
REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO...MOVING TOWARDS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THUS...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING NICE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY EXPAND EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS SATURATES. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ROUGHLY NORTH OF A CHEYENNE TO ALLIANCE LINE.
TUESDAY...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH WORK
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED...SIMILAR TO THE QPF DEPICTION ON
THE NAM AND GFS. CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CLOUD
COVER...RAIN AND COOLER THICKNESSES.
TUESDAY NIGHT...DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DECREASES AND LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WANE.
WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWEST USHERING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS...AND THUS ONLY ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM OUR
NORTH...THUS DRY WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST FLOW. COULD
ALSO SEE ONE OR TWO SHOWERS SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN
THE EVENING AS WELL. HOWEVER...ITS MORE LIKELY THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE TOO STABLE ACROSS THIS AREA FOR CONVECTION...SO LEFT
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL STEADILY WARM BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S
BY SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING IN THIS PATTERN.
WESTERLY WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE COULD BECOME A
BIT BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO MOVE THRU THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. AS A RESULT...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES COULD
RESURFACE WITH THE DRY...WARM AND BREEZY IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2015
PESKY STRATUS LOOKS TO HOLD ON IN THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AT
KAIA AND KSNY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING KAIA SOLIDLY IN THE
LAYER WITH KSNY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRATUS LAYER. WILL
NEED TO WATCH AS I WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. OBSERVATION
TRENDS SHOW CEILINGS LOWERING AT BOTH AIRPORTS...SO THIS MAKES ME
THINK THAT IT IS THERE TO STAY. HRRR DOES BREAK THEM BOTH OUT FOR
A TIME THIS EVENING...BUT DO BELIEVE IT IS TOO OPTIMISTIC. STRATUS
HERE AT KCYS LATER THIS EVENING AROUND 06Z WITH MORNING IFR
CONDITIONS AT KLAR AND KRWL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2015
MINIMAL CONCERNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BASED ON
PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS. HOWEVER...OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP WITH LOWERING HUMIDITIES AND WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR HUMIDITIES AND WINDS ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1143 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS (ZONES 116 AND 117). WYDOT SENSORS
FROM BUFORD TO THE SUMMIT SHOW VIS OF 300-500 FT...SO GETTING SOME
PRETTY DENSE FOG. VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNRISE. HRRR SHOWS FOG SPREADING EASTWARD TO CHEYENNE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THUS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
MONITOR OBS AROUND CHEYENNE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR RAPID CITY
TO NORTH OF TORRINGTON TO NEAR LARAMIE THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS BLANKETING SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
UPSLOPING SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE. A LITTLE WARMER TODAY OVER
SATURDAY WITH 1 PM REPORTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO THE UPPER 50S OUT BY RAWLINS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR AREA
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER REPEAT OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE. LOWER LEVEL WINDS DO BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER
12Z MONDAY...THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE MORNING. THINKING THAT
FOG/STRATUS WILL BREAK UP TOMORROW MORNING INSTEAD OF HANGING IN
LIKE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT OF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
OF THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. BY MONDAY EVENING THOUGH...WE BEGIN TO
SEE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING/WESTERN COLORADO. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT WEST POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...BUT MORE LIKELY MONDAY EVENING.
DIFFERENCES IN LOW MOVEMENT TUESDAY WITH THE GFS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE LOW. GFS SHOWING LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. SHOULD
THE GFS SOLUTION HOLD TRUE...MANY AREAS WOULD SEE WETTING RAINS
HERE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH SHOW THE I-80
CORRIDOR PICKING UP THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DID MAINTAIN OR
INCREASE POPS FOR TUESDAY WITH THIS AGREEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET DAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO OUR EAST. PERHAPS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
THURSDAY...DRY AND COOLER IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
FRIDAY...CONTINUED DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WARMING TREND BEGINS AS THE AIRMASS MODERATES.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS A RIDGE ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD AND THEN WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY...INDUCING
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LEE TROUGHING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SITES TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH 12-15Z. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AT CYS AFTER AROUND 09Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING MONDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL MOSTLY BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG FOR MANY AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
WESTERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZF
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
935 PM MST TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DECREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED TO START WEDNESDAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA...BETTER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
ON THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR YAVAPAI/MOHAVE COUNTY BORDER THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME MUCH MORE STABLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA
THAN EARLIER TODAY WITH ACTIVITY AIDED BY AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT
VORT MAX. RAP ADVERTISES A TRAILING VORT MAX TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT BUT WEAKEN IN THE PROCESS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT AND
MOIST CONDITIONS THAT THE WEAKENING VORT MAX COULD WORK WITH...HELD
ON TO POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MAY NEED TO NUDGE DOWN HIGH
POPS OVER ZONE 24 THOUGH. WHILE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF A
SHOWER BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...EXPECT IT WOULD
BE VERY BRIEF AND VERY LOCALIZED. WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE
MID 60S THIS EVENING...WILL MAKE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MIN
TEMP FORECASTS. AS FOR THE UPPER LOW...IT TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BECOMING CENTERED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY
00Z THURSDAY. SO THERE WILL STILL BE A LINGERING OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIP BUT NOT AS GOOD AS TODAY...ESPECIALLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED 220 PM MST 06 OCTOBER...
SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AZ. AMDAR UL WIND
FIELDS AND EARLY AFTN SATELLITE LOOPS PLOT THE LOW CIRC CENTER
SPANNING ACROSS MOHAVE/YAVAPAI COUNTIES WITH LINES OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG ASCENT REGIONS/VORTICITY
LOBES...ONE STRETCHING SW THROUGH YUMA AND MARICOPA COUNTIES AND AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF ENHANCED STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN AZ FROM
TUCSON THROUGH SHOW LOW. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS IN THE
BALLPARK OF 20-30KTS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND UNIDIRECTION INFLOW
WINDS HAVE HELPED STORM PROPAGATION AND UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON.
LAPSE RATES QUICKLY STEEPENED IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-TROP FRONT/VORT
LOBE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AZ AND STORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPED SHORTLY
AFTER OVER THE SW AZ DESERTS IN THE LATE AM. THE HEAVIEST
STORMS...AS OF THIS WRITING...WERE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PHX
METRO AND INTO YAVAPAI COUNTY WITH AN ADDITIONAL UPWARD PULSE MOVING
TOWARDS MARICOPA/CASA GRANDE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND VERY ISO STORM
ACTIVITY WAS STILL FILLING BACK IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST MARICOPA/PINAL
COUNTY...MOST NOT TO THE INTENSITY THAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE
DAY. WITH SUBSIDENCE WAKE FLOW BEGINNING TO NOSE INTO FAR WESTERN AZ
AND ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHEAST CA...THE POP GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD.
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANY LINGERING RUMBLES
OF THUNDER WILL CONTINUE FOR MARICOPA COUNTY EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...WITH A FAIR BIT OF THE ACTIVITY LOSING ITS PUNCH AFTER
SUNSET. CLEARER SKIES AND MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WARMING HAS ALLOWED
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO WARM JUST SHY OF NORMAL FOR THE WESTERN
FORECAST ZONES...WHILE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ DESERTS.
THE UL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AZ
PERSISTING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES
NEARING MINUS 14-15C FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH PERSISTENT COOLING AND
LINGERING LL MOISTURE FIELDS...THERE WILL STILL BE A DECENT CHANCE
OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF
PHOENIX DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE RAIN THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS OUR AREA. WHAT DOESN`T RESULT AS
PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FORM
SIGNIFICANT CU FIELDS BEFORE WAKE SUBSIDENCE ROTATES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH...DISSIPATING THE CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO ON THURSDAY WHILE RIDGING
ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC WILL START TO OVERTAKE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL VARY QUITE A BIT WITH
AREAWIDE HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE
DESERTS. AS RIDGING ALOFT TAKES OVER AND HEIGHTS DRAMATICALLY
INCREASE BY LATE THIS WEEK...HIGHS WILL INCREASE EACH DAY...REACHING
NORMALS OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ON THURSDAY AND THEN WIDESPREAD 95-100
DEGREE HIGHS OVER THE DESERTS FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG
RANGE MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN CYCLING THE
SAME UPPER LOW BACK WESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA
PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND...SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT IT MAY AGAIN BRING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME MUCH MORE STABLE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...INCLUDING PHOENIX METRO. ONLY SOME LINGERING ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...LOCALLY LOWERING THE CEILINGS TO BKN070-090 MSL.
EXPECT MOST OF THESE WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF METRO.
OTHERWISE...SOME LINGERING MID CLOUDS AOA 10 KFT MSL OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS HIGHLY VARIABLE THROUGH 07Z BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD
NORTHEAST AND EAST.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 10 KFT MSL...LOCALLY BROKEN...TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS FAVORING NORTHERLY DIRECTIONS THOUGH
SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION IN THIS TIME
PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE EACH DAY...FOLLOWED BY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. HIGHER MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/MEYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
928 PM MST TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN
COVERAGE FROM TUCSON AND POINTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION
EXPECT COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN A
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO AND INTERNATIONAL BORDERS INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IT WAS A FAIRLY ACTIVE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DURING
THE LATE-MORNING HOURS AND RACED NORTHEASTWARD AMIDST STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY. CONDITIONS HAVE QUIETED DOWN
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND WE`RE CURRENTLY LEFT WITH JUST A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY (PER THE 07/00Z
KTWC SOUNDING AND SPC MESOANALYSIS)...LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND
GOOD JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LOW (AN
IMPLIED JET STREAK IS VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PIVOTING
INTO MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES)...EXPECTING CONTINUED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. FEEL THE LATEST 07/02Z HRRR IS
LATCHING ON TO THE RIGHT TRENDS FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...PERHAPS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL GIVEN THE
COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE INHERITED
FORECAST IS HANDLING THIS IDEA WELL SO DO NOT PLAN ON ANY UPDATES
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED AREAS OF VALLEY FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS THAT CAN CLEAR OUT AND
RADIATIVELY COOL...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO ISN`T HIGH
ENOUGH TO THROW INTO THE GRIDS.
FOR TOMORROW...THE UPPER-LOW WILL FINALLY PIVOT THROUGH THE
REGION...ON ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY. AS THE MAIN
CORE OF THE VERY COLD MID-LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA...IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH INSOLATION TO START POPPING STORMS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
LATE MORNING HOURS...ALBEIT WITH LESS OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 08/06Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH BASES
GENERALLY 4-9 KFT AGL. LOCALIZED AREAS OF VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE
DEPENDENT ON CLEARING OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST OF A KGXF-KTUS-KOLS LINE. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF TSRA INFLUENCES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE HANGING AROUND THE
SW US MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SE AZ WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD...A STRONG EAST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER SE
ARIZONA FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIDING SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD
TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NEARLY OVERHEAD.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD IN ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
INTO THE GREAT BASIN NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE UPPER LOW LOSES ITS MID
LATITUDE SUPPORT AND RETROGRADES WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.
THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THIS TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD TO WEST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES...AND THE UPPER LOW CUT-OFF UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE...THE FLOW
ACROSS ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTHERLY. LIMITED MOISTURE...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
CARLAW
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
403 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
CURRENTLY...
AT 2 AM...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLD -TSRA WERE NOTED OVER NE EL PASO
COUNTY. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDED ALONG THE S I-25
CORRIDOR. SHOWERS WERE ALSO LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CONTDVD AS
PER SAT PIX IMGY AND OBS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL ARIZ.
TODAY...
UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HRRR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL...BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S IN THE VALLEYS.
TONIGHT...
ANY PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE U40S TO AROUND 50 0VER
THE PLAINS...AND 30S AND 40S IN THE VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS. EXPECT WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND
WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO OFF THE BAJA COAST...WHILE WEAK
ENERGY WILL TRANSVERSE COLORADO IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT A
FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD BY
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...HOWEVER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO UNDER WARMING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 70S ON FRIDAY...TO LOWER TO
MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
SOME LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. FROM MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL
AT KALS...VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24H.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1258 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
AND ANY SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE
REGION. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...COULD SEE PATCHY EARLY
MORNING FOG DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY UPPER RIDGING WEST
OF THE REGION FLATTENING DURING THE PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH JUST THIN HIGH CLOUDS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE
A LITTLE TOO WARM BECAUSE OF THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. FOG WILL
LIKELY OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BECAUSE OF HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN EVENT AND LIGHT
WIND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA (FA) FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...HOWEVER
BOTH MODELS SHOW H85 WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SUGGESTING
LIMITED MOISTURE. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF. GUIDANCE POPS
RANGE FROM 10 TO 30 PERCENT.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DOMINATE DURING THE
REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD COOL TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. USED THE WARMER GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF
FRONTAL MIXING FRIDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS FOR
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH PERIOD. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO IFR
FOG AT AGS/OGB TOWARD MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS FLOODING AND CONDITION OF
AREA DAMS. WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS MOST RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND
BEGUN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH AREA DAMS SLOWLY BECOMING MORE
STABLE. SEVERAL DAMS CONTINUE TO CAUSE CONCERN AND REMAIN CLOSELY
MONITORED WITH SOME HAVING LEVELS DRAWN DOWN.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
314 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
As has been the case over the past couple of nights...fog is once
again developing across portions of central Illinois early this
morning. 08z/3am surface obs show widespread dense fog across
northeast Illinois into northwest Indiana. With surface ridge axis
still in place across the region...low-level flow is generally from
the N/NW as evidenced by area 925mb VAD wind profilers. Given this
trajectory...the current area of fog will likely advect/develop
slowly southward across mainly the eastern half of the KILX CWA over
the next few hours. HRRR has been consistently showing this signal
as well...so confidence is high that dense fog will develop across
the E. Based on HRRR forecast and latest obs...have decided to
issue a Dense Fog Advisory through 14z for all locations
along/northeast of a Bloomington...to Decatur...to Marshall line.
Mid-level cloudiness pushing slowly in from the W/NW should prevent
areas further west from seeing quite as much fog...so have only gone
with patchy fog in the forecast along/west of I-55. The fog will
gradually dissipate by mid-morning...with skies becoming partly to
mostly sunny during the afternoon. Resulting high temperatures will
be similar to yesterday in the middle to upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
00z Oct 7 models have slowed the approach of the next cold front by
about 6 hours...with the boundary now remaining well W/NW of the
area through the day Thursday. As a result...have removed PoPs
across the NW CWA during the morning and have limited chance PoPs to
locations along/northwest of I-55 in the afternoon. With partly
sunny skies and strong/gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the
front...afternoon highs will soar into the lower 80s across the
board. Better rain chances will arrive Thursday night...as boundary
interacts with an increasingly moist low-level airmass characterized
by surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Due to the
slower arrival of the front after dark...daytime instability will be
waning with MUCAPES of less than 500J/kg. Despite weaker
instability than previously forecast...think increasing shear and
strong convergence along the boundary will be enough to trigger
scattered thunderstorms. Have carried likely PoPs with FROPA
Thursday night. Have also lingered rain chances a bit longer into
Friday morning...especially along/south of I-70. Front is progged
to drop into the Ohio River Valley by Friday afternoon...ending the
rain chances and introducing much cooler weather with highs
remaining in the middle to upper 60s.
After a chilly Friday night with lows in the middle 40s and a
seasonable day on Saturday with afternoon highs in the 60s...another
warming trend will get underway early next week. Rising upper
heights across the central CONUS will help temps rebound well into
the 70s by Sunday. Models are not in particularly good agreement
with the timing of the next weak cold front...with the latest GFS
speeding it up by about 12 hours and now bringing it through central
Illinois on Monday. Regardless of the timing...little to no low-
level moisture will be available...so will continue with a dry
forecast through the remainder of the extended. Have however cooled
highs on Monday from the lower 80s back into the middle to upper 70s
due to the faster arrival of the front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
High pressure settling over Illinois tonight has allowed winds to
taper off. Mid-level clouds to the northwest are advecting into
the state as well and are limiting some of the potential for
radiative cooling. latest short-range models, the 03z RAP and 03z
HRRR in particular, still suggest fog development along and east
of U.S. Highway 51. Though the development isn`t as far west as
the past two nights there is more consistency between the models.
Will bring KCMI down to LIFR conditions for a brief time around
sunrise. Vsbys are a bit more questionable at KBMI and KDEC but a
few hours of IFR still seems a good bet. As the clouds develop
southeast, mesoscale models suggest some improvement at KBMI by
11z and KDEC by 12z.
Dew Point spreads are currently higher at KPIA and KSPI as they
have been more influenced by incoming mid-level cloudiness.
Surface high should remain over the state on Wednesday keeping
winds light through the TAF valid period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ038-
043>046-053>057-062-063.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Current package remains on-track.
Still some question as to intensity and coverage of fog late
tonight and early Wednesday. Though moist northeast flow has
diminished as a surface ridge has pushed into Illinois, plenty of
residual moisture remains in the boundary layer. For now will keep
current wording of areas of fog, but will have to monitor trends
closely. latest RAP (23z) is more agressive with fog development
than runs from earlier today.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Low cloud deck has faded over most of the forecast area early this
afternoon, but some stratocumulus lingers especially in west central
Illinois. Main concern is that this will return once again tonight.
The atmosphere has not changed much, as the high pressure axis to
our west only slowly edges eastward. The RAP model, which locked
into the idea of this morning`s low clouds and fog about 24 hours in
advance, shows another expanse of stratus/fog advecting in from the
northeast after about 2 am. Wild card will be with some altocumulus
clouds currently over Wisconsin/Minnesota dropping southeast, which
could slow the redevelopment of the low clouds. Right now, will
focus more on the areas east of I-55 and north of I-70 as more
likely to see some fog late night, although some fog along the
Wabash River in southeast Illinois is a possibility as well.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Areas of fog from I-55 east and locally dense in spots to lift
during mid morning similar to past 2 mornings. Low clouds to also
break up by late morning with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny
by Wed afternoon with weak surface high pressure ridge of 1018 mb
near IL Wed and Wed night. Warm highs Wed in the upper 70s to near
80F. Lows Wed night in the mid to upper 50s. Could be some patchy
fog in southeast IL later Wed night where surface winds lighter.
Another warm day expected Thu with breezy ssw winds by midday Thu
giving highs in the lower 80s. MAV guidance even going mid 80s in
western CWA from Decatur west but did not go this warm since there
will be increasing cloud cover ahead of approaching cold front along
with chances of showers and thunderstorms NW half of CWA Thu
afternoon, with best chances over the IL river valley. SPC has
marginal risk (5%) of severe storms for hail late Thu afternoon and
early Thu evening over IL river valley. MLCapes peak near 1000 j/kg
late Thu afternoon nw IL and 0-6 km Bulk shear from 35-45 kts. 12Z
models similar in sweeping cold front se acorss central IL during
Thu night with likely chances of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Cold front exits southeast IL early Fri morning with lingering
chances of showers on Friday especially in the morning.
Dry conditions return to central and southeast IL Friday night
through next Tuesday as high pressure from the Pacific NW settles
into IL Saturday and then into the Southeast U.S. early next week.
Temps cool back to near or a bit below normal Friday/Saturday and
then warm back above normal early next week with highs in the mid
70s to lower 80s Sun-Tue. WNW upper level flow takes shape during
1st half of next week which would favor fair and mild conditions,
and favorable for fall harvest. CPC`s day 6-10 day outlook Oct 12-16
has IL in above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
High pressure settling over Illinois tonight has allowed winds to
taper off. Mid-level clouds to the northwest are advecting into
the state as well and are limiting some of the potential for
radiative cooling. latest short-range models, the 03z RAP and 03z
HRRR in particular, still suggest fog development along and east
of U.S. Highway 51. Though the development isn`t as far west as
the past two nights there is more consistency between the models.
Will bring KCMI down to LIFR conditions for a brief time around
sunrise. Vsbys are a bit more questionable at KBMI and KDEC but a
few hours of IFR still seems a good bet. As the clouds develop
southeast, mesoscale models suggest some improvement at KBMI by
11z and KDEC by 12z.
Dew Point spreads are currently higher at KPIA and KSPI as they
have been more influenced by incoming mid-level cloudiness.
Surface high should remain over the state on Wednesday keeping
winds light through the TAF valid period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
602 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
70S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY WITH COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS BRINGING A SHARP JUMP IN TEMPS THIS MORNING AND
DISRUPTING FOG ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST SATELLITE
SHOWS A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS JUST WEST OF OUR CWA. LIKELY
TOO LITTLE TOO LATE FOR WIDESPREAD RESURGENCE OF FOG BEFORE
SUNRISE BUT LATEST KVPZ OB HAS DROPPED BACK TO 1/2 MILE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST OBS FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINE CHANGES
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM AT LEAST OUR
MICHIGAN COUNTIES. MORE WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
FOR THE SHORT TERM. A RATHER COMPLICATED SATELLITE PICTURE AT
PRESS TIME WITH STRATUS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN CLEAR
SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO. PAIR OF WEAK AND HIGHLY SHEARED SHORTWAVES
WILL DRIVE THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. FIRST ONE...WHICH
ACTUALLY SHOWS UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA AND THE SUBTLE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH STRATUS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME FOG ALREADY SEEN UNDER STRATUS AND ANY
AREAS THAT MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD SEE
SOME DENSER FOG DEVELOP AS WELL. MEANWHILE...700MB MOISTURE PLUME
NOTED JUST UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS.
TOUGH TO GAUGE WHAT THE IMPACT WILL BE TO SITES THAT ARE ALREADY
SOCKED IN WITH FOG. A FEW OBS SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE. HRRR INDICATES FOG WILL
CONTINUE AND EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING. DENSE FOG IS NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE FOR AN ADVISORY BUT ENOUGH
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL EVIDENCE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
THIS MORNING AND HAVE JOINED OUR NEIGHBORS IN HOISTING AN
ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT VISIBILITIES ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE
AND SOME LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES MAY NOT EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG. BASED ON LATEST HI-
RES/RAPID UPDATE SOUNDINGS...SUSPECT DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF
RELATIVELY QUICKLY (AROUND 14Z)...THOUGH AN HOUR OR TWO EXTENSION
MAY BE NECESSARY IN A FEW AREAS. AFTERWARD...TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS SECONDARY WIND SHIFT/CAA PUSHES THROUGH AND
HAVE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS
AROUND 50F WITH A LOW CHANCE OF FOG GIVEN INCREASED LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND DRIER PROFILES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
NRN STREAM SW TROUGH OVR SE BC THIS MORNING PRIMARY WX
FTR OF NOTE THIS PD AS IT TRANSLATES ESE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES BY THU
NIGHT. OVERALL POOR RTN MSTR ADVTN AHD OF THIS SYS AND NWD TRACK OF
PRIMARY WAVE AND ASSOCD/HGT FALLS POINT TO BTR PRECIP
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WELL NORTH ACRS LWR MI W/CHCS TAILING OFF W/SWD
EXTENT. PRIMARY CHG EARLY ON IS TO TRUNCATE MENTIONABLE POP WINDOW
GIVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SEWD PROGRESSION OF CDFNT.
OTRWS BROAD ANTICYCLONE BLDS SEWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF
THIS SYS W/SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT FOLLOWED BY QUICK
MODERATION AS NXT IN SERIES OF NRN STREAM WAVES AMPLIFIES EWD ACRS
SRN CANADA ERLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS DISRUPTING FOG THIS MORNING AND EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AT KFWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW STRATUS MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO SCATTER BUT STILL EXPECT VFR AROUND 14Z. SOME
BRIEF BR POSSIBLE AT KSBN BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
ALTHOUGH FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OF CONCERN TODAY IS MORNING FOG.
VISIBILITIES HAVE AGAIN BEGUN TO PLUMMET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING WELL BELOW A MILE
AT THIS TIME. BASED ON HOW THE LAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE
EVOLVED...AND HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN
PERSISTENCE...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND
SOUTH...AND IT MAY ONLY OCCUR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND THE
DAYBREAK TIME FRAME...BUT FOR MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA DENSE FOG
WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS. DID BUMP THINGS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
FOG WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON MORNING HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ADD A BIT MORE
DETAIL TO GRIDS...BUT GENERAL IDEA OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE
SAME...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MIDDAY ONWARD.
WHILE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...MODEL K INDICES AND
SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
NONZERO THREAT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE...WITH MINOR TWEAKS
UPWARD THURSDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STUCK
NEAR SURFACE WETBULB PROGS FOR MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
A SOMEWHAT FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE
OF FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND THEN HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN BY DAY 7. THE 00Z EURO INDICATES RECIP IS POSSIBLE
SOME AREAS LATE MONDAY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL INDICATE A BIT MORE CLOUDS
ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL SATURDAY...WARMING SOME SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND TURNING A LITTLE COOLER AFTER THE 2ND COLD FRONT BY DAY 7.
MODEL INITIALIZATION SEEMS REASONABLE ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS...
BUT TWEAKED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY DAY 7 BASED ON THE NEW GFS AND EURO.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 070600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
GREATER CONFIDENCE IN SEEING IFR FOG AND STRATUS OVERNIGHT AS AN
INVERSION SETS UP WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. HOWEVER...MODEL 850-700
MILLIBAR TIME SECTIONS ARE SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH PATCHES OF THICK CLOUDS IN THIS
LAYER...CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
WILL STICK WITH HIGH END IFR AFTER 09Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR AFTER 15Z TOMORROW. PRIOR TO THAT...SHOULD SEE VFR CONDTIONS
WITH DECREASING MID CLOUDS.
DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH LAF AFTER 21Z AND IND AFTER
00Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MK/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
347 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
70S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY WITH COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
FOR THE SHORT TERM. A RATHER COMPLICATED SATELLITE PICTURE AT
PRESS TIME WITH STRATUS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN CLEAR
SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO. PAIR OF WEAK AND HIGHLY SHEARED SHORTWAVES
WILL DRIVE THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. FIRST ONE...WHICH
ACTUALLY SHOWS UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA AND THE SUBTLE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH STRATUS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME FOG ALREADY SEEN UNDER STRATUS AND ANY
AREAS THAT MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD SEE
SOME DENSER FOG DEVELOP AS WELL. MEANWHILE...700MB MOISTURE PLUME
NOTED JUST UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS.
TOUGH TO GAUGE WHAT THE IMPACT WILL BE TO SITES THAT ARE ALREADY
SOCKED IN WITH FOG. A FEW OBS SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE. HRRR INDICATES FOG WILL
CONTINUE AND EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING. DENSE FOG IS NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE FOR AN ADVISORY BUT ENOUGH
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL EVIDENCE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
THIS MORNING AND HAVE JOINED OUR NEIGHBORS IN HOISTING AN
ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT VISIBILITIES ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE
AND SOME LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES MAY NOT EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG. BASED ON LATEST HI-
RES/RAPID UPDATE SOUNDINGS...SUSPECT DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF
RELATIVELY QUICKLY (AROUND 14Z)...THOUGH AN HOUR OR TWO EXTENSION
MAY BE NECESSARY IN A FEW AREAS. AFTERWARD...TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS SECONDARY WIND SHIFT/CAA PUSHES THROUGH AND
HAVE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS
AROUND 50F WITH A LOW CHANCE OF FOG GIVEN INCREASED LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND DRIER PROFILES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
NRN STREAM SW TROUGH OVR SE BC THIS MORNING PRIMARY WX
FTR OF NOTE THIS PD AS IT TRANSLATES ESE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES BY THU
NIGHT. OVERALL POOR RTN MSTR ADVTN AHD OF THIS SYS AND NWD TRACK OF
PRIMARY WAVE AND ASSOCD/HGT FALLS POINT TO BTR PRECIP
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WELL NORTH ACRS LWR MI W/CHCS TAILING OFF W/SWD
EXTENT. PRIMARY CHG EARLY ON IS TO TRUNCATE MENTIONABLE POP WINDOW
GIVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SEWD PROGRESSION OF CDFNT.
OTRWS BROAD ANTICYCLONE BLDS SEWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF
THIS SYS W/SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT FOLLOWED BY QUICK
MODERATION AS NXT IN SERIES OF NRN STREAM WAVES AMPLIFIES EWD ACRS
SRN CANADA ERLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
ANOTHER DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH PATCH OF STRATUS STILL
IMPACTING KFWA AND FOG AT KSBN. EXPECT STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF/WHEN
STRATUS DOES DISSIPATE...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE ARE SEEING AT
KSBN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT AT LEAST FUEL ALTERNATE
EXPECTED THROUGH 13-14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING COMMENCE.
FOR KSBN...APPROACHING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS AND WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION
COMPLICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO PERSIST. UPSTREAM OBS
INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE LAST HOUR WITH KSBN AND OTHER
NEARBY SITES SHOWING DRASTICALLY FLUCTUATING VISIBILITIES. SUSPECT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AND NOT CONFIDENT THAT FOG WILL
PERSIST ALL MORNING GIVEN APPROACHING HIGHER BASED CLOUDS. HELD
WITH FUEL ALTERNATE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OBS FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
440 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COASTAL FLOOD UPDATE.
AS OF 07Z...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED AT 1024MB OVER NRN MD...UNDER A BROAD UPR TROUGH
STRETCHING ALONG THE CANADA/US BORDER EAST FROM MN. ANOTHER UPR
TROUGH IS OFF THE SERN COAST...TRAILING THE REMNANT LOW THAT WAS
OVER THE SERN STATES THIS PAST WEEK. JUST SOME WISPY CIRRUS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NWRN FOURTH OF THE
CWA. FOG IS LIMITED FOR NOW DESPITE THE CALM AND DEWPOINT NOW IN THE
50S. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
TODAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPR TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE
AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING FROM THE NORTH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE (AND FEATURED IN THE PAST FEW HRRR RUNS)
INVOF AUGUST COUNTY. TRANQUIL OR LIGHT NORTH BREEZE...MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MID TO UPR 70S (80F POSSIBLE FOR SUNNIEST
LOCALES).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CONTINUED CALM. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 50S.
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER SWRN ZONES.
MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CD FNT IS XPCTD TO BE DVLPG OVR OHIO THU NGT...REACHING THE
APLCHNS FRI DURG MID/LATE AFTN FRI...THEN THE ERN SHORE FRI EVE.
IT LOOKS LK THE FNT WL BE LAGGING OVR THE AREA SAT. HIGH PRES
SHOULD BUILD BACK INTO THE MID ATLC SAT NGT AND SUN.
TEMPS FRI SHOULD WARM TO THE MU70S.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX...THE WX/POPS WE HV BEEN FCSTG LOOK GOOD -
LKLY IN THE FAR W FRI AFTN/CHC IN THE E. GDNC SDNG PROFILES ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SKINNY CAPE CAN BE XPCTD. HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE. PRVS SHIFT ADDED LOW CHC OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS E OF
THE MTNS FRI AFTN/EVE WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH
OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR...WHICH IS LN W/ WHAT THE
SREF SVR PRODUCT IS SHOWING. BUT GIVEN SKINNY CAPE/WEAK SHEAR THIS
WL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
SKIES WL BE SLOW TO CLR SAT...AND HV XTND THE CHC OF RW INTO
MIDDAY SAT W/ THE SLOW MOVG FNT.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER WX DAY OF THE WKND. M SUNNY SKIES W/
HIGHS U60S/A70. MON ALSO LOOKING GOOD W/ HIGHS IN THE LM70S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM REST OF THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LIMITING
FOG. ISOLATED SHOWERS INVOF KCHO THIS AFTERNOON FROM A WEAK UPR
DISTURBANCE. ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS AND LIGHT NLY FLOW. CALM AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED VFR.
IN THE XTND...CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS THU NGT AHD OF AN APRCHG CD
FNT. SUB VFR CONDS WL BE PSBL FRI AFTN/NGT AS THE FNT APRCHS...
BRINGING THE CWC OF RW/ISOLD TRW. CONDS WL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE...AND IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL SAT AFTN THAT
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT NLY FLOW THEN THROUGH TONIGHT...SHIFTING ELY THURSDAY BUT
REMAINING LIGHT.
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE XTND WL BE THE CD FNT APRCHG THE WATERS FRI
EVE. SCA LVL WINDS WL BE PSBL ON SRLY WINDS AHD OF THE FNT....AND
THEN BEHIND THE FNT DURG 1ST HALF OF SAT. ISOLD TSTMS WL BE PSBL
FRI EVE WHICH MAY HV THE PTNL TO PRODUCE SMW-LVL WINDS.
NO PROBS XPCTD SAT NGT THRU MON.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ONLY COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NEXT HIGH TIDE IS ST MARYS AT
STRAITS POINT.
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MORNING/AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS LESSER...EXPECT LEVELS TO
APPROACH THE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD FOR CALVERT/ANNE
ARUNDEL AND DC/ALEXANDRIA.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THE PREFERRED
HIGH TIDE...BUT ONLY FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE SITES AND WOULD NEED
TO OVERCOME THE DECREASING ANOMALIES.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ017.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
BAJ/WOODY!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 07Z...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...CENTERED AT 1024MB OVER NRN MD...UNDER A BROAD UPR TROUGH
STRETCHING ALONG THE CANADA/US BORDER EAST FROM MN. ANOTHER UPR
TROUGH IS OFF THE SERN COAST...TRAILING THE REMNANT LOW THAT WAS
OVER THE SERN STATES THIS PAST WEEK. JUST SOME WISPY CIRRUS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NWRN FOURTH OF THE
CWA. FOG IS LIMITED FOR NOW DESPITE THE CALM AND DEWPOINT NOW IN THE
50S. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
TODAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD UPR TROUGH
CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE
AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING FROM THE NORTH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE (AND FEATURED IN THE PAST FEW HRRR RUNS)
INVOF AUGUST COUNTY. TRANQUIL OR LIGHT NORTH BREEZE...MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MID TO UPR 70S (80F POSSIBLE FOR SUNNIEST
LOCALES).
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CONTINUED CALM. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 50S.
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER SWRN ZONES.
MAX TEMPS GENERALLY MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CD FNT IS XPCTD TO BE DVLPG OVR OHIO THU NGT...REACHING THE
APLCHNS FRI DURG MID/LATE AFTN FRI...THEN THE ERN SHORE FRI EVE.
IT LOOKS LK THE FNT WL BE LAGGING OVR THE AREA SAT. HIGH PRES
SHOULD BUILD BACK INTO THE MID ATLC SAT NGT AND SUN.
TEMPS FRI SHOULD WARM TO THE MU70S.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX...THE WX/POPS WE HV BEEN FCSTG LOOK GOOD -
LKLY IN THE FAR W FRI AFTN/CHC IN THE E. GDNC SDNG PROFILES ARE
STILL INDICATING THAT SKINNY CAPE CAN BE XPCTD. HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE. PRVS SHIFT ADDED LOW CHC OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS E OF
THE MTNS FRI AFTN/EVE WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH
OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR...WHICH IS LN W/ WHAT THE
SREF SVR PRODUCT IS SHOWING. BUT GIVEN SKINNY CAPE/WEAK SHEAR THIS
WL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
SKIES WL BE SLOW TO CLR SAT...AND HV XTND THE CHC OF RW INTO
MIDDAY SAT W/ THE SLOW MOVG FNT.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BETTER WX DAY OF THE WKND. M SUNNY SKIES W/
HIGHS U60S/A70. MON ALSO LOOKING GOOD W/ HIGHS IN THE LM70S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CALM REST OF THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LIMITING
FOG. ISOLATED SHOWERS INVOF KCHO THIS AFTERNOON FROM A WEAK UPR
DISTURBANCE. ELSEWHERE VFR CIGS AND LIGHT NLY FLOW. CALM AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED VFR.
IN THE XTND...CLDS WL BE ON THE INCRS THU NGT AHD OF AN APRCHG CD
FNT. SUB VFR CONDS WL BE PSBL FRI AFTN/NGT AS THE FNT APRCHS...
BRINGING THE CWC OF RW/ISOLD TRW. CONDS WL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE...AND IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL SAT AFTN THAT
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT NLY FLOW THEN THROUGH TONIGHT...SHIFTING ELY THURSDAY BUT
REMAINING LIGHT.
BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE XTND WL BE THE CD FNT APRCHG THE WATERS FRI
EVE. SCA LVL WINDS WL BE PSBL ON SRLY WINDS AHD OF THE FNT....AND
THEN BEHIND THE FNT DURG 1ST HALF OF SAT. ISOLD TSTMS WL BE PSBL
FRI EVE WHICH MAY HV THE PTNL TO PRODUCE SMW-LVL WINDS.
NO PROBS XPCTD SAT NGT THRU MON.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MORNING/AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS LESSER...BUT WILL APPROACH
MINOR LEVELS FOR CALVERT/ANNE ARUNDEL AND DC/ALEXANDRIA. AS OF NOW
ONLY CONFIDENCE IN MINOR FOR ST MARYS AT STRAITS POINT. MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THE PREFERRED HIGH
TIDE...BUT WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME THE DECREASING ANOMALIES.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014-
018.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ011.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ017.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ535.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ538.
&&
$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW NRN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FROM WRN CANADA THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MAIN NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH NEAR JAMES BAY...ONLY VERY WEAK
UPSTREAM SHRTWVS WERE NOTED FROM SRN SASK INTO NW ONTARIO. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO NRN UPPER MI. OBS AND VIS LOOP
SHOWED SOME MID CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI. A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOWER
CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN INTO NW ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB
TEMPS NEAR 0C WAS GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE ESE.
TONIGHT...ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING
OVER THE ERN CWA SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY EVENING...EXPECT A CLEARING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AND 900 MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 1C...UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING CLOUDS N CNTRL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEST WITH DECOUPLED WINDS...TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FROST.
WED...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASING ACYC
FLOW...ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS OR LIGHT PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SUNSHINE/MIXING WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN IN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND
MAYBE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE WAVE LEADING TO THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS
THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF
THE LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG 925-700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THAT PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE INTO THE U.P. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED THE HEAVIEST RAIN A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY.
EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND...STILL THINK MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.5-0.75IN OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
THE LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY EVENING
AND BRING AN END TO THE LARGER SCALE PRECIPITATION. BUT WRAP AROUND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DRIER
AIR ARRIVES WITH AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP SINCE YESTERDAY...SO
WITH THOSE CLOUDS EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO
OCCUR DUE TO 825MB TEMPS AROUND -1C. THEREFORE...WILL LINGER SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED
NORTHERLY WIND AREAS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE...FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN DEPART ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AND CONTINUING INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LOW TRACK STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...EXPECT LITTLE/NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLING N-NW WINDS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AT CMX. THESE
CLOUDS ARE ALSO CLOSE TO IWD AND SAW...MAKING THE EARLY MORNING FCST
TRICKY. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING IN TO
RAISE CEILINGS BACK TO VFR BY MID MORNING. VFR CEILINGS AND VIS ALONG
WITH WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS WILL REMAIN THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS VEERING FROM WSW TO NNW. WINDS TO 25 KNOTS
NEAR THE KEWEENAW THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
OVER CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
A LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH THE SE WINDS PEAKING AROUND
30KTS THU. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI
EVENING BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN FROM THE SW LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
121 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
INHERITED FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT SO NO
BIG CHANGES.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRENDED BACK ON POPS. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH MAKES SENSE
SINCE THE S/WV THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION ON WED
WILL BE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN 12Z THIS
MORNING...OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WED AFTERNOON. REMOVED POPS
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FROM WEST TO EAST WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...REMOVING ENTIRELY AFTER 06Z.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST TO CAPTURE
LATEST CONDITIONS. CONSIDERED ADDING PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE HEART
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP DO NOT
SHOW VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT...SO LEFT IT OUT FOR
NOW. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT MAY ALSO HELP LIMIT THE
FOG POTENTIAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING H5 WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK.
SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ANY RAIN CHANCES UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES COMING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A POOL OF COOL AIR MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR MAINTAINING AN AREA OF CLOUDS TODAY...AND THE
REMNANTS OF THESE CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS MCLEAN COUNTY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED BY WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODELS DELIVER A SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND WITH A
90KT H300 JET ENTRANCE REGION MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING A SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BE IN PLACE ORIENTED
NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. THESE FEATURES MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF
A MINOT-BISMARCK LINE DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN PERHAPS A
LINGERING SHOWER IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S IN THE JAMES
VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE SURFACE TROUGH...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY AND
COOLER DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST. A COOL NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MID TO UPPER 30S FOR LOWS FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES VALLEY...WITH 40S FARTHER WEST.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AN LOWER 80S...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. THEN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
WILL MAINTAIN A VFR FORECAST FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS NOW INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT MAINLY KBIS...KMOT AND KJMS FROM MID
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CHANCES THEN DECREASE WED
EVENING. WILL MENTION VCSH FOR THESE THREE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS IS DEPICTED BY MODELS TO SURGE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1204 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING KLBB AND KCDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT COMPUTER FORECASTS ARE
NOT CONSISTENT ON LOCATION AND TIMING SO UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
JORDAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE HAVASU CITY ARIZONA WAS
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST...AND EXPECTED TO TAKE MORE OF A SOUTHEAST
TURN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW TO NEAR DOUGLAS ARIZONA BY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST THAN
AVAILABLE TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET WAS
ARCING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE AND
AN AREA OF LIFT EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD NEAR THE STATE LINE
OVERNIGHT. MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS AT LEAST BRING PRECIPITATION CLOSE
TO THE STATE LINE IF NOT SLIGHTLY EAST OF IT OVERNIGHT WHILE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE HRRR SOLUTION HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS EASTWARD EXTENT
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE OF THUNDER
ALONG WESTERN BORDER OVERNIGHT WHILE TRIMMING THE SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION A BIT FURTHER WEST.
A SECOND AREA OF LIFT IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ALSO
A BIT FURTHER WEST OF PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. DRY AIR TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WOULD BE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY PLUME TO ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BACKS...AND WOULD NOT BE A POSITIVE FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
SO WE HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHILE DECREASING THE FORECAST CHANCES AS
FAR WEST AS THE INTERSTATE 27 CORRIDOR. FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR THUNDER CHANCES AS
WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD OVERNIGHT...SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE...AND THIS WARMER START
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO A WARM DAY ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES
WITH LESS OPAQUE CLOUD COVER. TRENDED HIGHS WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED AROUND THE PROGRESSION OF THE
CLOSED AND CUTOFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WHAT
IMPACTS IT WILL HAVE ON WEST TEXAS MID-LATE WEEK. AS IS THE CASE FOR
CUTOFF SYSTEMS...FORECASTING IT/S EVENTUAL PATH IS ALWAYS A
DIFFICULT AND OFTEN HUMBLING PROSPECT. THAT SAID...THE LATEST NWP
CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR EAST WITH THE UPPER
LOW...DIGGING IT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THEN
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO /CENTERED WELL WEST OF EL PASO/ ON
THURSDAY BEFORE IT BEGINS RETROGRADING TOWARD THE BAJA LATE WEEK.
THIS TREND RESULTS IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAN HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. ATTM...IT STILL DOES APPEAR THE UPPER LOW WILL COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE/LIFT TO THE WESTERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...PERHAPS EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPROCK ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE MOIST
TROPOSPHERE /WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.20 INCHES/
EFFICIENT RAINERS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT TRACKS REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. DRIER
AIR AND WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DO CALL
INTO QUESTION HOW FAR EAST THE BETTER/HEAVIER RAIN CHANCES WILL
MAKE IT. IN FACT...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER TIGHT
RAINFALL GRADIENT LIKE WE SAW WITH THE PAST WEEKEND RAINS WHERE
THE WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES AND THE EASTERN MOST ZONES
MAY JUST SEE LIGHT AMOUNTS. PER THE TRENDS...WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID- TO
LATE-WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A HEAVY RAIN
MENTION ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING TO
MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS ADDED TO THE HWO. AS SPC HAS NOTED...IF
ENOUGH HEATING/INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO VISIT THE WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER
LOW BACKS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE PICTURE FROM THE NORTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH CRUISES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME HEATING MAY
RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY /ALONG WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION/ TO SPUR
ADDITION SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WEST TEXAS IS BENEATH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW
MOVING BACK OUT INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION. ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING WAVE WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY SEND A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE REGION NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD PROVIDE MINIMAL
COOLING.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...DECENT MOISTURE AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES WILL
TEND TO KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES SUPPRESSED THOUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY UP ON THE CAPROCK. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE BREEZES RETURN. IN FACT...THE LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS UP NEAR 90 DEGREES BY
SUNDAY. WE HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...BUT
NOT QUITE THAT WARM YET. THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBLE WEAK FRONT AND
MINOR COOLING MOVING IN AT SOME POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 53 67 53 68 / 70 60 40 40
TULIA 55 72 55 69 / 50 50 40 30
PLAINVIEW 56 73 56 71 / 60 60 40 40
LEVELLAND 56 71 56 71 / 80 70 40 50
LUBBOCK 57 73 57 73 / 60 60 40 40
DENVER CITY 57 69 57 69 / 80 70 50 50
BROWNFIELD 58 71 57 71 / 80 70 40 50
CHILDRESS 60 83 61 78 / 20 30 40 30
SPUR 60 78 59 78 / 30 50 50 40
ASPERMONT 63 84 62 82 / 20 40 40 50
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
925 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
Visible satellite imagery at 9 am shows what`s left of the low
clouds and dense fog across Coles, Edgar and southern Vermilion
Counties. This will continue to shrink over the next hour, and
since the remainder of east central Illinois saw the fog lift an
hour or so ago, the advisory was allowed to expire. Otherwise,
little change was needed to the forecast, with partly cloudy skies
and most areas reaching the upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
As has been the case over the past couple of nights...fog is once
again developing across portions of central Illinois early this
morning. 08z/3am surface obs show widespread dense fog across
northeast Illinois into northwest Indiana. With surface ridge axis
still in place across the region...low-level flow is generally from
the N/NW as evidenced by area 925mb VAD wind profilers. Given this
trajectory...the current area of fog will likely advect/develop
slowly southward across mainly the eastern half of the KILX CWA over
the next few hours. HRRR has been consistently showing this signal
as well...so confidence is high that dense fog will develop across
the E. Based on HRRR forecast and latest obs...have decided to
issue a Dense Fog Advisory through 14z for all locations
along/northeast of a Bloomington...to Decatur...to Marshall line.
Mid-level cloudiness pushing slowly in from the W/NW should prevent
areas further west from seeing quite as much fog...so have only gone
with patchy fog in the forecast along/west of I-55. The fog will
gradually dissipate by mid-morning...with skies becoming partly to
mostly sunny during the afternoon. Resulting high temperatures will
be similar to yesterday in the middle to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
00z Oct 7 models have slowed the approach of the next cold front by
about 6 hours...with the boundary now remaining well W/NW of the
area through the day Thursday. As a result...have removed PoPs
across the NW CWA during the morning and have limited chance PoPs to
locations along/northwest of I-55 in the afternoon. With partly
sunny skies and strong/gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the
front...afternoon highs will soar into the lower 80s across the
board. Better rain chances will arrive Thursday night...as boundary
interacts with an increasingly moist low-level airmass characterized
by surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Due to the
slower arrival of the front after dark...daytime instability will be
waning with MUCAPES of less than 500J/kg. Despite weaker
instability than previously forecast...think increasing shear and
strong convergence along the boundary will be enough to trigger
scattered thunderstorms. Have carried likely PoPs with FROPA
Thursday night. Have also lingered rain chances a bit longer into
Friday morning...especially along/south of I-70. Front is progged
to drop into the Ohio River Valley by Friday afternoon...ending the
rain chances and introducing much cooler weather with highs
remaining in the middle to upper 60s.
After a chilly Friday night with lows in the middle 40s and a
seasonable day on Saturday with afternoon highs in the 60s...another
warming trend will get underway early next week. Rising upper
heights across the central CONUS will help temps rebound well into
the 70s by Sunday. Models are not in particularly good agreement
with the timing of the next weak cold front...with the latest GFS
speeding it up by about 12 hours and now bringing it through central
Illinois on Monday. Regardless of the timing...little to no low-
level moisture will be available...so will continue with a dry
forecast through the remainder of the extended. Have however cooled
highs on Monday from the lower 80s back into the middle to upper 70s
due to the faster arrival of the front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
Widely variable weather conditions, LIFR to VFR, exist across the
central Illinois terminal area. The thicker fog/stratus is more
patchy than it was the past couple of nights. As such, it should
burn off more quickly this morning, with all TAF sites improving
to VFR within the next few hours. Increasing high clouds and winds
by later tonight should help minimize the threat of a heavy
fog/stratus event again overnight. Still, have included a tempo
for fog late tonight which is probably prudent until there is a
wholesale airmass change behind Thursday night`s cold front.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
650 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
As has been the case over the past couple of nights...fog is once
again developing across portions of central Illinois early this
morning. 08z/3am surface obs show widespread dense fog across
northeast Illinois into northwest Indiana. With surface ridge axis
still in place across the region...low-level flow is generally from
the N/NW as evidenced by area 925mb VAD wind profilers. Given this
trajectory...the current area of fog will likely advect/develop
slowly southward across mainly the eastern half of the KILX CWA over
the next few hours. HRRR has been consistently showing this signal
as well...so confidence is high that dense fog will develop across
the E. Based on HRRR forecast and latest obs...have decided to
issue a Dense Fog Advisory through 14z for all locations
along/northeast of a Bloomington...to Decatur...to Marshall line.
Mid-level cloudiness pushing slowly in from the W/NW should prevent
areas further west from seeing quite as much fog...so have only gone
with patchy fog in the forecast along/west of I-55. The fog will
gradually dissipate by mid-morning...with skies becoming partly to
mostly sunny during the afternoon. Resulting high temperatures will
be similar to yesterday in the middle to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
00z Oct 7 models have slowed the approach of the next cold front by
about 6 hours...with the boundary now remaining well W/NW of the
area through the day Thursday. As a result...have removed PoPs
across the NW CWA during the morning and have limited chance PoPs to
locations along/northwest of I-55 in the afternoon. With partly
sunny skies and strong/gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the
front...afternoon highs will soar into the lower 80s across the
board. Better rain chances will arrive Thursday night...as boundary
interacts with an increasingly moist low-level airmass characterized
by surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Due to the
slower arrival of the front after dark...daytime instability will be
waning with MUCAPES of less than 500J/kg. Despite weaker
instability than previously forecast...think increasing shear and
strong convergence along the boundary will be enough to trigger
scattered thunderstorms. Have carried likely PoPs with FROPA
Thursday night. Have also lingered rain chances a bit longer into
Friday morning...especially along/south of I-70. Front is progged
to drop into the Ohio River Valley by Friday afternoon...ending the
rain chances and introducing much cooler weather with highs
remaining in the middle to upper 60s.
After a chilly Friday night with lows in the middle 40s and a
seasonable day on Saturday with afternoon highs in the 60s...another
warming trend will get underway early next week. Rising upper
heights across the central CONUS will help temps rebound well into
the 70s by Sunday. Models are not in particularly good agreement
with the timing of the next weak cold front...with the latest GFS
speeding it up by about 12 hours and now bringing it through central
Illinois on Monday. Regardless of the timing...little to no low-
level moisture will be available...so will continue with a dry
forecast through the remainder of the extended. Have however cooled
highs on Monday from the lower 80s back into the middle to upper 70s
due to the faster arrival of the front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
Widely variable weather conditions, LIFR to VFR, exist across the
central Illinois terminal area. The thicker fog/stratus is more
patchy than it was the past couple of nights. As such, it should
burn off more quickly this morning, with all TAF sites improving
to VFR within the next few hours. Increasing high clouds and winds
by later tonight should help minimize the threat of a heavy
fog/stratus event again overnight. Still, have included a tempo
for fog late tonight which is probably prudent until there is a
wholesale airmass change behind Thursday night`s cold front.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ038-
043>046-053>057-062-063.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1035 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
ALTHOUGH FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MANY SITES STILL REPORTING A QUARTER MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY ACROSS
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND THUS EXTENDED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON. INCREASED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON YESTERDAY HIGHS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER
THERE THIS MORNING ALLOWING WARMING TO GET STARTED RIGHT AWAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OF CONCERN TODAY IS MORNING FOG.
VISIBILITIES HAVE AGAIN BEGUN TO PLUMMET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING WELL BELOW A MILE
AT THIS TIME. BASED ON HOW THE LAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE
EVOLVED...AND HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN
PERSISTENCE...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND
SOUTH...AND IT MAY ONLY OCCUR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND THE
DAYBREAK TIME FRAME...BUT FOR MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA DENSE FOG
WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS. DID BUMP THINGS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
FOG WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON MORNING HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ADD A BIT MORE
DETAIL TO GRIDS...BUT GENERAL IDEA OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE
SAME...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MIDDAY ONWARD.
WHILE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...MODEL K INDICES AND
SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
NONZERO THREAT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE...WITH MINOR TWEAKS
UPWARD THURSDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STUCK
NEAR SURFACE WETBULB PROGS FOR MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
A SOMEWHAT FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE
OF FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BY DAY 7. THE 00Z EURO INDICATES PRECIP IS POSSIBLE SOME
AREAS LATE MONDAY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL INDICATE A BIT MORE
CLOUDS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL SATURDAY...WARMING SOME SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND TURNING A LITTLE COOLER AFTER THE 2ND COLD FRONT BY DAY 7.
MODEL INITIALIZATION SEEMS REASONABLE ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS...
BUT TWEAKED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY DAY 7 BASED ON THE NEW GFS AND EURO.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 071500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS AS
OF 14Z. ONLY CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO EXTEND THE
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 16Z AT MOST TERMINALS...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER.
12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OUR TWO BEFORE BREAKING UP BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT...IT WILL BE VFR FROM MIDDAY TODAY TO ABOUT
06Z-08Z TONIGHT.
AFTER MIDDAY MODELS INDICATE ONLY SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH FOG BEING SO PERSISTENT LAST FEW MORNING...WILL FORECAST A RETURN AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z-08Z. BUT MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AND WILL KEEP
VISIBILITIES NO LOWER THAN 2 TO 3 MILES LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TODAY AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
ALTHOUGH FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MANY SITES STILL REPORTING A QUARTER MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY ACROSS
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND THUS EXTENDED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON. INCREASED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON YESTERDAY HIGHS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER
THERE THIS MORNING ALLOWING WARMING TO GET STARTED RIGHT AWAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OF CONCERN TODAY IS MORNING FOG.
VISIBILITIES HAVE AGAIN BEGUN TO PLUMMET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING WELL BELOW A MILE
AT THIS TIME. BASED ON HOW THE LAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE
EVOLVED...AND HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN
PERSISTENCE...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND
SOUTH...AND IT MAY ONLY OCCUR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND THE
DAYBREAK TIME FRAME...BUT FOR MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA DENSE FOG
WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS. DID BUMP THINGS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
FOG WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON MORNING HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ADD A BIT MORE
DETAIL TO GRIDS...BUT GENERAL IDEA OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE
SAME...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MIDDAY ONWARD.
WHILE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...MODEL K INDICES AND
SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
NONZERO THREAT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE...WITH MINOR TWEAKS
UPWARD THURSDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STUCK
NEAR SURFACE WETBULB PROGS FOR MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
A SOMEWHAT FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE
OF FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BY DAY 7. THE 00Z EURO INDICATES PRECIP IS POSSIBLE SOME
AREAS LATE MONDAY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL INDICATE A BIT MORE
CLOUDS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL SATURDAY...WARMING SOME SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND TURNING A LITTLE COOLER AFTER THE 2ND COLD FRONT BY DAY 7.
MODEL INITIALIZATION SEEMS REASONABLE ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS...
BUT TWEAKED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY DAY 7 BASED ON THE NEW GFS AND EURO.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 071200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OUR TWO BEFORE BREAKING UP BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT...IT WILL BE VFR FROM MIDDAY TODAY TO ABOUT
06Z-08Z TONIGHT.
AFTER MIDDAY MODELS INDICATE ONLY SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH FOG BEING SO PERSISTENT LAST FEW MORNING...WILL FORECAST A RETURN AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z-08Z. BUT MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AND WILL KEEP
VISIBILITIES NO LOWER THAN 2 TO 3 MILES LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TODAY AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
953 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
70S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY WITH COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
DENSE FOG THAT HAD FORMED AROUND SUNRISE IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY BURN OFF WITH INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND WARMING.
VISIBILITIES AT SEVERAL REPORTING SITES COMING UP TO BETWEEN ONE
HALF AND TWO MILES AT 930AM. STILL A FEW SITES AROUND ONE QUARTER
MILE OR LESS...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTH AGAINST IND CWA. PLANNING
ON ALLOWING ADVISORY TO EXPIRE MOST AREAS BUT AFTER COLLABORATION
WILL EXTEND ADVISORY IN FAR SOUTH FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.
SATELLITE SHOWS RATHER DENSE OVC IN THIS AREA SO MAY TAKE AN HOUR
OR TWO TO SEE VIS IMPROVE THERE. WILL COVER REMAINING LOCAL AREAS
WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
FOR THE SHORT TERM. A RATHER COMPLICATED SATELLITE PICTURE AT
PRESS TIME WITH STRATUS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN CLEAR
SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO. PAIR OF WEAK AND HIGHLY SHEARED SHORTWAVES
WILL DRIVE THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. FIRST ONE...WHICH
ACTUALLY SHOWS UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA AND THE SUBTLE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH STRATUS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME FOG ALREADY SEEN UNDER STRATUS AND ANY
AREAS THAT MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD SEE
SOME DENSER FOG DEVELOP AS WELL. MEANWHILE...700MB MOISTURE PLUME
NOTED JUST UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS.
TOUGH TO GAUGE WHAT THE IMPACT WILL BE TO SITES THAT ARE ALREADY
SOCKED IN WITH FOG. A FEW OBS SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE. HRRR INDICATES FOG WILL
CONTINUE AND EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING. DENSE FOG IS NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE FOR AN ADVISORY BUT ENOUGH
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL EVIDENCE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
THIS MORNING AND HAVE JOINED OUR NEIGHBORS IN HOISTING AN
ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT VISIBILITIES ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE
AND SOME LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES MAY NOT EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG. BASED ON LATEST HI-
RES/RAPID UPDATE SOUNDINGS...SUSPECT DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF
RELATIVELY QUICKLY (AROUND 14Z)...THOUGH AN HOUR OR TWO EXTENSION
MAY BE NECESSARY IN A FEW AREAS. AFTERWARD...TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS SECONDARY WIND SHIFT/CAA PUSHES THROUGH AND
HAVE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS
AROUND 50F WITH A LOW CHANCE OF FOG GIVEN INCREASED LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND DRIER PROFILES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
NRN STREAM SW TROUGH OVR SE BC THIS MORNING PRIMARY WX
FTR OF NOTE THIS PD AS IT TRANSLATES ESE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES BY THU
NIGHT. OVERALL POOR RTN MSTR ADVTN AHD OF THIS SYS AND NWD TRACK OF
PRIMARY WAVE AND ASSOCD/HGT FALLS POINT TO BTR PRECIP
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WELL NORTH ACRS LWR MI W/CHCS TAILING OFF W/SWD
EXTENT. PRIMARY CHG EARLY ON IS TO TRUNCATE MENTIONABLE POP WINDOW
GIVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SEWD PROGRESSION OF CDFNT.
OTRWS BROAD ANTICYCLONE BLDS SEWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF
THIS SYS W/SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT FOLLOWED BY QUICK
MODERATION AS NXT IN SERIES OF NRN STREAM WAVES AMPLIFIES EWD ACRS
SRN CANADA ERLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS DISRUPTING FOG THIS MORNING AND EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AT KFWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW STRATUS MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO SCATTER BUT STILL EXPECT VFR AROUND 14Z. SOME
BRIEF BR POSSIBLE AT KSBN BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.
MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
004-005-015-016-024-025.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
653 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
ALTHOUGH FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OF CONCERN TODAY IS MORNING FOG.
VISIBILITIES HAVE AGAIN BEGUN TO PLUMMET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING WELL BELOW A MILE
AT THIS TIME. BASED ON HOW THE LAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE
EVOLVED...AND HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN
PERSISTENCE...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND
SOUTH...AND IT MAY ONLY OCCUR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND THE
DAYBREAK TIME FRAME...BUT FOR MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA DENSE FOG
WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS. DID BUMP THINGS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
FOG WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON MORNING HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ADD A BIT MORE
DETAIL TO GRIDS...BUT GENERAL IDEA OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE
SAME...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MIDDAY ONWARD.
WHILE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...MODEL K INDICES AND
SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
NONZERO THREAT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE...WITH MINOR TWEAKS
UPWARD THURSDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STUCK
NEAR SURFACE WETBULB PROGS FOR MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
A SOMEWHAT FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE
OF FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND THEN HIGH
PRESSURE AGAIN BY DAY 7. THE 00Z EURO INDICATES RECIP IS POSSIBLE
SOME AREAS LATE MONDAY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL INDICATE A BIT MORE CLOUDS
ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL SATURDAY...WARMING SOME SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND TURNING A LITTLE COOLER AFTER THE 2ND COLD FRONT BY DAY 7.
MODEL INITIALIZATION SEEMS REASONABLE ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS...
BUT TWEAKED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY DAY 7 BASED ON THE NEW GFS AND EURO.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 071200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OUR TWO BEFORE BREAKING UP BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. AFTER THAT...IT WILL BE VFR FROM MIDDAY TODAY TO ABOUT
06Z-08Z TONIGHT.
AFTER MIDDAY MODELS INDICATE ONLY SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH FOG BEING SO PERSISTENT LAST FEW MORNING...WILL FORECAST A RETURN AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z-08Z. BUT MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AND WILL KEEP
VISIBILITIES NO LOWER THAN 2 TO 3 MILES LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS TODAY AND LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
538 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING...LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HOW WARM IT GETS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND HOW COOL DOES IT GET BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW
STILL REMAINS IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN ARE DOING THE BEST
ON THE JET. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/NAM. THE RAP/SREF WERE DOING THE BEST
ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE SREF/NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LOT OF STUFF GOING ON TODAY. INITIALLY THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN A MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO THROUGH MID MORNING HAVE INSERTED
A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THAT AREA. NEXT...FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF CLOUD COVER. THAT HAS KEPT THE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LARGE. SO LITTLE TO NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. HOWEVER A
CLEAR SLOT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE LATEST RAP LOOKS TO BE CATCHING THAT AND DEVELOPS FOG OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SO WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR
THERE AND PATCHY TO THE EAST OF THAT.
JET LIFT STARTS OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING AND TENDS TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IS MORE
DIFFUSE AND UNORGANIZED. LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS COME THROUGH TO HELP THIS LIFT OUT. FIRST ONE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTION THIS MORNING THEN ANOTHER ONE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD THIS AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS ARE CURRENTLY OVERDOING PRECIPITATION. SO GOING BY
THE ABOVE REASONING WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LITTLE TO NO LIFT AND MOISTURE AROUND FOR TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP THIS
PERIOD DRY. SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND PREFRONTAL WARMING WILL KEEP
MINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE SLOWER FROM YESTERDAY IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. MODELS ARE ALSO SLOWER IN
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON AND ACTUALLY KEEP IT GOING
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MID LEVEL
LIFT...MAINLY IN THE NORTH...THERE WILL BE DECENT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE. FEEL MOST LOCATIONS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SO BROADBRUSHED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...IF CLOUDS DO NOT HINDER THE
WARMING...THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF...COULD WARM UP
RATHER NICELY. WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN
ADVANCE...DID WARM UP MAXES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING. A MUCH STRONGER
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF JET NOSES IN/MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY ALONG WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE BEST IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH THE
FAVORABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES. MODELS HAVE MORE QPF THAN LAST
NIGHT... ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. SO COVERED THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHER POPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST YOU GET.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAST DO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CLEAR
OUT. BECAUSE WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THEY LAST THE LONGEST IN
THE SOUTH AND WEST. SO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE MADE
THE COOLEST.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK IN STORE WITH A MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH
THEY COOL THE TEMPERATURES. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RECYCLED COOL AIR OVER MOST OF
THE AREA EXCEPT MAYBE THE FAR WEST. SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND
TENDED TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO EXTREMES AND WHERE THE MOST OF
THE TEMPERATURES CLUSTERED.
FRIDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COOL DEPENDING HOW STRONG
THE WINDS END UP BEING. SO LOWERED THE MINS A LITTLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE REGION. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. HOWEVER...LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. BROAD RIDGING REDEVELOPS
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...BRINGING
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING BUT WILL BE TO THE WEST OF KGLD.
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING NEAR BOTH
SITES. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE WHATEVER PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR
WILL NOT AFFECT EITHER ONE SO DID NOT PUT ANY MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING NIGHT. THAT WIND SHIFT
WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
407 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING...LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HOW WARM IT GETS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND HOW COOL DOES IT GET BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW
STILL REMAINS IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN ARE DOING THE BEST
ON THE JET. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/NAM. THE RAP/SREF WERE DOING THE BEST
ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE SREF/NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LOT OF STUFF GOING ON TODAY. INITIALLY THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN A MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO THROUGH MID MORNING HAVE INSERTED
A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THAT AREA. NEXT...FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF CLOUD COVER. THAT HAS KEPT THE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LARGE. SO LITTLE TO NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. HOWEVER A
CLEAR SLOT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE LATEST RAP LOOKS TO BE CATCHING THAT AND DEVELOPS FOG OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SO WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR
THERE AND PATCHY TO THE EAST OF THAT.
JET LIFT STARTS OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING AND TENDS TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IS MORE
DIFFUSE AND UNORGANIZED. LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS COME THROUGH TO HELP THIS LIFT OUT. FIRST ONE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTION THIS MORNING THEN ANOTHER ONE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD THIS AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS ARE CURRENTLY OVERDOING PRECIPITATION. SO GOING BY
THE ABOVE REASONING WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LITTLE TO NO LIFT AND MOISTURE AROUND FOR TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP THIS
PERIOD DRY. SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND PREFRONTAL WARMING WILL KEEP
MINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE SLOWER FROM YESTERDAY IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. MODELS ARE ALSO SLOWER IN
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON AND ACTUALLY KEEP IT GOING
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MID LEVEL
LIFT...MAINLY IN THE NORTH...THERE WILL BE DECENT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE. FEEL MOST LOCATIONS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SO BROADBRUSHED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...IF CLOUDS DO NOT HINDER THE
WARMING...THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF...COULD WARM UP
RATHER NICELY. WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN
ADVANCE...DID WARM UP MAXES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING. A MUCH STRONGER
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF JET NOSES IN/MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY ALONG WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE BEST IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH THE
FAVORABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES. MODELS HAVE MORE QPF THAN LAST
NIGHT... ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. SO COVERED THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHER POPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST YOU GET.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAST DO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CLEAR
OUT. BECAUSE WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THEY LAST THE LONGEST IN
THE SOUTH AND WEST. SO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE MADE
THE COOLEST.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK IN STORE WITH A MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH
THEY COOL THE TEMPERATURES. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RECYCLED COOL AIR OVER MOST OF
THE AREA EXCEPT MAYBE THE FAR WEST. SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND
TENDED TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO EXTREMES AND WHERE THE MOST OF
THE TEMPERATURES CLUSTERED.
FRIDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COOL DEPENDING HOW STRONG
THE WINDS END UP BEING. SO LOWERED THE MINS A LITTLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE REGION. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. HOWEVER...LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. BROAD RIDGING REDEVELOPS
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...BRINGING
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE INCONSISTENT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS SUNRISE DUE TO VARIATIONS IN NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE AND RESULTING RH VALUES DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND LOW CLOUDS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH BOTH
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AROUND SUNRISE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO
AND WESTERN KANSAS.
HAVE KEPT BOTH MCK AND GLD VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-13Z
AT GLD DUE TO FOG AND LOWER CEILINGS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
258 PM MST WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTH INTO MEXICO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LEAVING THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES UNDER A
DRIER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY PERIODIC
THICKER CLOUD COVER. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD CORE LOW
HAS TRANSLATED INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENVELOPING SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR
WESTERN ARIZONA. A COMPACT PV ANOMALY/VORTICITY CENTER IMMEDIATELY
UNDER THE COLD CORE (-15C AT H5) WAS FORCING WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT AROUND AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WERE SHIFTING EAST IN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY REMAINED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA.
NEVERTHELESS...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT ASCENT ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD CORE STILL EXISTED OVER MUCH OF GILA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL ROTATE ABOUT
THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING...AND IT IS
STILL CONCEIVABLY SOME SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
COULD ALSO SWING BACK WESTWARD TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS (I.E. HRRR AND WRF-NMM CORES) SUPPORT THIS IDEA
THOUGH AREAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE METRO...RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD CORE
LOW SINKING FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BECOMING DISASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERALL NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS...EAST PACIFIC RIDGING WILL FOLD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SUBSIDENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN A
REX-TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL STEADILY INCREASE WITH
H5 READINGS APPROACHING 590DM BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY CONDUCIVE TO DEEP MIXING AND
SEASONALLY EXCEPTIONAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS
(PHOENIX RECORD HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD ARE 100F-105F...AND FORECASTS
FALL NEARLY 10F BELOW THESE RECORDS). THUS...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH INTO AN ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY...MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING MAY
BE SOMEWHAT MUTED.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ALL THREE GLOBAL MODEL SUITES...AND MANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GEM ALL SLOWLY RETROGRADE THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS NW MEXICO BACK INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA.
EVENTUALLY...THE COLD COLD IS FORECAST TO SWING BACK NORTH TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH MORE SWLY TRAJECTORIES
ALOFT...AND MODELS WARM TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
RANGE. BEYOND TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE
RETURN TO A WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN AS THE UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE INLAND...HOWEVER SPREAD AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
GROWS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY YIELDING HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE FEATURE HAS BEGUN A SLOW EXIT INTO SOUTHEAST
AZ...LIMITING ANY OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACTIVITY WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE PHOENIX-AREA TERMINALS. FEW TO SCT CU COVERAGE WILL
LINGER OVER THE PHX AREA TERMINALS THRU SUNSET...WITH SKC FOR
KIPL AND KBLH CONTINUING. A STRAY RAIN SHOWER MAY DEVELOP ON
THE EASTERN PHX AREA PERIPHERY...BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. WINDS TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
HEADINGS WITH SPEEDS GNLY 10KTS OR LESS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH
DAY WITH GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE STORM
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM OFF THE PACIFIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...POSSIBLY RETURNING INCREASED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE DISTRICTS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO/PERCHA
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ/NOLTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
210 PM MST WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SINK SOUTH INTO MEXICO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LEAVING THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES UNDER A
DRIER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY PERIODIC
THICKER CLOUD COVER. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN TO THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD CORE LOW
HAS TRANSLATED INTO FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ENVELOPING SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR
WESTERN ARIZONA. A COMPACT PV ANOMALY/VORTICITY CENTER IMMEDIATELY
UNDER THE COLD CORE (-15C AT H5) WAS FORCING WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT AROUND AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WERE SHIFTING EAST IN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY REMAINED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN ARIZONA.
NEVERTHELESS...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT ASCENT ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COLD CORE STILL EXISTED OVER MUCH OF GILA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL ROTATE ABOUT
THE EASTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING...AND IT IS
STILL CONCEIVABLY SOME SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
COULD ALSO SWING BACK WESTWARD TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS (I.E. HRRR AND WRF-NMM CORES) SUPPORT THIS IDEA
THOUGH AREAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE METRO...RAPIDLY DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD CORE
LOW SINKING FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BECOMING DISASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERALL NORTHERN STREAM
FLOW. AS THIS OCCURS...EAST PACIFIC RIDGING WILL FOLD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SUBSIDENT NORTHEAST FLOW IN A
REX-TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL STEADILY INCREASE WITH
H5 READINGS APPROACHING 590DM BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW ARE NOT NECESSARILY CONDUCIVE TO DEEP MIXING AND
SEASONALLY EXCEPTIONAL TEMPERATURES DESPITE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS
(PHOENIX RECORD HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD ARE 100F-105F...AND FORECASTS
FALL NEARLY 10F BELOW THESE RECORDS). THUS...WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH INTO AN ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORY...MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING MAY
BE SOMEWHAT MUTED.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ALL THREE GLOBAL MODEL SUITES...AND MANY OF THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GEM ALL SLOWLY RETROGRADE THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS NW MEXICO BACK INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA.
EVENTUALLY...THE COLD COLD IS FORECAST TO SWING BACK NORTH TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH MORE SWLY TRAJECTORIES
ALOFT...AND MODELS WARM TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
RANGE. BEYOND TUESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT A POSSIBLE
RETURN TO A WETTER AND COOLER PATTERN AS THE UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE INLAND...HOWEVER SPREAD AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
GROWS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY YIELDING HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IF/WHEN MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WOULD BE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEAST AZ TODAY. AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
CIRCULATE INTO THE PHOENIX VALLEY TODAY...HOWEVER VARIABLE CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE VICINITY THE KIWA
AIRFIELD BETWEEN 18Z WED AND 01Z THU. OTHERWISE...SCT TO OCNL BKN
CLDS 8 TO 10 THSD AGL. LIGHT AND VRB WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THROUGH 02Z THU. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
NLY SFC WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS DEVELOPING BTWN 18Z WED AND 01Z THU.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE EACH
DAY. GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...MO/PERCHA
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1127 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
CURRENTLY...
AT 2 AM...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLD -TSRA WERE NOTED OVER NE EL PASO
COUNTY. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDED ALONG THE S I-25
CORRIDOR. SHOWERS WERE ALSO LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CONTDVD AS
PER SAT PIX IMGY AND OBS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL ARIZ.
TODAY...
UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HRRR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL...BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S IN THE VALLEYS.
TONIGHT...
ANY PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE U40S TO AROUND 50 0VER
THE PLAINS...AND 30S AND 40S IN THE VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS. EXPECT WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND
WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO OFF THE BAJA COAST...WHILE WEAK
ENERGY WILL TRANSVERSE COLORADO IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT A
FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD BY
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...HOWEVER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO UNDER WARMING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 70S ON FRIDAY...TO LOWER TO
MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1024 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
UPDATED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
CURRENTLY...
AT 2 AM...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLD -TSRA WERE NOTED OVER NE EL PASO
COUNTY. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDED ALONG THE S I-25
CORRIDOR. SHOWERS WERE ALSO LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CONTDVD AS
PER SAT PIX IMGY AND OBS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL ARIZ.
TODAY...
UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HRRR SHOWS ISOLD SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. OVERALL...BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER.
MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 60S IN THE VALLEYS.
TONIGHT...
ANY PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THIS EVENING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR WITH MIN TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE U40S TO AROUND 50 0VER
THE PLAINS...AND 30S AND 40S IN THE VALLEYS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS. EXPECT WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND
WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO OFF THE BAJA COAST...WHILE WEAK
ENERGY WILL TRANSVERSE COLORADO IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT A
FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD BY
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS COLORADO. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...HOWEVER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO UNDER WARMING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE 70S ON FRIDAY...TO LOWER TO
MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 352 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
SOME LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH MID
MORNING...BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. FROM MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL
AT KALS...VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24H.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
621 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
SOME PASSING CLOUDS. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL RETURN THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT...A WEAK COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...IS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS HARD TO DEPICT IN
SFC OBS...WITH A VERY SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND DROP IN DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AS WELL AS THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.
3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION PASSING NORTH OF THE GREATER CAPITAL
DISTRICT. A LACK OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FORCING SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING OUTSIDE A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FA FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH
THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATER TONIGHT. SKY COVER
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN 40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR TOMORROW...ALLOWING
FOR A COMPLETELY DRY DAY. SKY COVER WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. DESPITE THE FULL SUNSHINE...TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE FEW PAST DAYS DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FOR THURSDAY EVENING...AS A STORM
SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST...AND HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND SEACOAST. WITH A WARM FRONT QUICKLY
ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SOME RAIN WILL START TO SPREAD
TOWARDS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
PROBABLY WON/T PICK UP IN INTENSITY UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY...MOST AREAS WILL BE SEEING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTO NW CT...WHERE THE RAIN MAY BE MISSING THESE AREAS
JUST TO THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE MILDER DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...WITH MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY...THE NEARBY PASSING LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON FRIDAY LOOK HEAVIEST FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS
COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW CT.
RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF ON FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. IN TOTAL...AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN
WILL FALL FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH FOR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS. A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ADIRONDACKS...ESP FOR W-SW FACING SLOPES...WHERE UPSLOPE
MAY INCREASE RAINFALL. TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A GENERALLY DRY...AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS THE NORTHERN JETSTREAM DOMINATES.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE MON NT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION...AS
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE NEAR OR
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY REDUCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AN
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND SFC COLD FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO
ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WARM/COLD ADVECTION WITH EACH PASSING
IMPULSE. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
SHOULD BE MON-TUE...BEFORE POTENTIALLY TRENDING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.
HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...
SAT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS SAT AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY
BE COOL ON SAT/SAT NT...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAT
NT/SUN AM WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
30S. SOME FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON REMAINS. BY SUN...AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WIND DEVELOPING. SUN NT/MON AM SHOULD BE MILDER THAN SAT NT/SUN
AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE 40S. THEN ON MON...A CONTINUES S/SW
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST 65-70 IN VALLEYS...AND
60-65 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER
TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEYS.
MON NT-WED...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MON NT INTO TUE. AGAIN...THERE ARE SOME MIXED SIGNALS
AS TO WHETHER THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE BEING DEFLECTED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE...OR IF ANY OFFSHORE SYSTEM REMAINS
WEAKER AND/OR NON EXISTENT...AND ALLOWS FOR A GREATER INFLUX OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. FOR NOW...HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR LATE MON NT INTO TUE...HIGHEST ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSER TO STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY BECOMES MORE DEFINITIVE. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION LATER TUE NT...AND OFF THE EAST COAST WED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD MON
NT/TUE AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME
WARMER MINS POSSIBLE. TUE MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S
IN VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT IS ANY SLOWER...EVEN WARMER TEMPS COULD
OCCUR. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 40S...THEN
ONLY RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WED...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY
RISE INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE
THURSDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW SKIES TO
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MAINLY
SCATTERED DECK AT KALB AND KGFL...AND SCATTERED/BROKEN AT KPOU AND
KPSF. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN TOWARDS
EARLY EVENING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANY
CEILING THAT DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AT KALB AND KPSF.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3-5 KFT ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE...SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AT
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING TOWARDS
SUNRISE...AND IF THIS CLEARING OCCURS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KGFL...KPOU AND KPSF. A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION AT KALB ALTHOUGH SOME
GROUND FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IF WINDS BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
ANY PATCHY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z THURSDAY ALONG
WITH ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT BETWEEN 4-8 KNOTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...RH VALUES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT NW
BREEZE.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 40 TO 45 PERCENT ON THURSDAY WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 MPH OR
LESS. RH VALUES WILL RETURN BACK TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT AGAIN WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
ON FRIDAY...RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO 6O TO 75 PERCENT WITH A
WETTING RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...TO AROUND AN INCH
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR. BEHIND THIS STORM
SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
356 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
SOME PASSING CLOUDS. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL RETURN THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT...A WEAK COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
LAKE ONTARIO AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS HARD TO DEPICT IN SFC
OBS...WITH A VERY SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND DROP IN DEWPOINTS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU...AND THESE ARE
MOVING TOWARDS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS OUR
AREA...AND A LACK OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WEAK FORCING SHOULD
PREVENT MUCH FROM OCCURRING OUTSIDE A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THE
FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA BY THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATER TONIGHT. SKY COVER
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN 40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR TOMORROW...ALLOWING
FOR A COMPLETELY DRY DAY. SKY COVER WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY. DESPITE THE FULL SUNSHINE...TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE
COOLER THAN THE FEW PAST DAYS DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT
IN PLACE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FOR THURSDAY EVENING...AS A STORM
SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE MIDWEST...AND HIGH PRESSURE
DEPARTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND SEACOAST. WITH A WARM FRONT QUICKLY
ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SOME RAIN WILL START TO SPREAD
TOWARDS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
PROBABLY WON/T PICK UP IN INTENSITY UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY...MOST AREAS WILL BE SEEING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTO NW CT...WHERE THE RAIN MAY BE MISSING THESE AREAS
JUST TO THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE MILDER DUE TO THE
CLOUDS/RAINFALL...WITH MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY...THE NEARBY PASSING LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON FRIDAY LOOK HEAVIEST FOR
NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS
COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY INTO NW CT.
RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF ON FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. IN TOTAL...AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN
WILL FALL FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...WITH A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH FOR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS. A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ADIRONDACKS...ESP FOR W-SW FACING SLOPES...WHERE UPSLOPE
MAY INCREASE RAINFALL. TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A GENERALLY DRY...AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS THE NORTHERN JETSTREAM DOMINATES.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE MON NT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION...AS
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE NEAR OR
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY REDUCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AN
APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE AND SFC COLD FRONT.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO
ALTERNATING PERIODS OF WARM/COLD ADVECTION WITH EACH PASSING
IMPULSE. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
SHOULD BE MON-TUE...BEFORE POTENTIALLY TRENDING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY WED.
HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS...
SAT-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS SAT AM...EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY
BE COOL ON SAT/SAT NT...WITH MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING 55-60 IN
VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SAT
NT/SUN AM WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
30S. SOME FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON REMAINS. BY SUN...AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPS SHOULD REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WIND DEVELOPING. SUN NT/MON AM SHOULD BE MILDER THAN SAT NT/SUN
AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE 40S. THEN ON MON...A CONTINUES S/SW
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST 65-70 IN VALLEYS...AND
60-65 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER
TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEYS.
MON NT-WED...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MON NT INTO TUE. AGAIN...THERE ARE SOME MIXED SIGNALS
AS TO WHETHER THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE BEING DEFLECTED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH ANY
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE...OR IF ANY OFFSHORE SYSTEM REMAINS
WEAKER AND/OR NON EXISTENT...AND ALLOWS FOR A GREATER INFLUX OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. FOR NOW...HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR LATE MON NT INTO TUE...HIGHEST ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSER TO STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...BUT THESE WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS THE MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY BECOMES MORE DEFINITIVE. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION LATER TUE NT...AND OFF THE EAST COAST WED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD MON
NT/TUE AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH SOME
WARMER MINS POSSIBLE. TUE MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S
IN VALLEY AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT IS ANY SLOWER...EVEN WARMER TEMPS COULD
OCCUR. TUE NT/WED AM MINS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 40S...THEN
ONLY RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ON WED...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MAX TEMPS MAY ONLY
RISE INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE
THURSDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW SKIES TO
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MAINLY
SCATTERED DECK AT KALB AND KGFL...AND SCATTERED/BROKEN AT KPOU AND
KPSF. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN TOWARDS
EARLY EVENING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANY
CEILING THAT DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AT KALB AND KPSF.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3-5 KFT ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE...SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AT
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING TOWARDS
SUNRISE...AND IF THIS CLEARING OCCURS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KGFL...KPOU AND KPSF. A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION AT KALB ALTHOUGH SOME
GROUND FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IF WINDS BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
ANY PATCHY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z THURSDAY ALONG
WITH ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT BETWEEN 4-8 KNOTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA...RH VALUES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT NW
BREEZE.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 40 TO 45 PERCENT ON THURSDAY WITH A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 MPH OR
LESS. RH VALUES WILL RETURN BACK TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT AGAIN WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
ON FRIDAY...RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO 6O TO 75 PERCENT WITH A
WETTING RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...TO AROUND AN INCH
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING WILL OCCUR. BEHIND THIS STORM
SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
143 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS AGAIN TODAY...THEN COOL TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS
THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...AN AREA OF CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE...AREAS
OF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS AND SRN VT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THIN OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MOST AREAS
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF A RAIN SHOWER
FOR THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS UPPER RADAR IMAGERY AND THE
3KM HRRR ALL SUGGEST A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 65-70 RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
60-65 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS COULD OCCUR
IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE ADDITIONAL WARMING
DUE TO A STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING W/NW WIND MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESP THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTH
INCREASES...AND MID LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN. EXPECT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER
GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...PERHAPS UP
TO 25-30 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME PASSING CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME GUSTINESS EARLY TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER AIR WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO THE 60S
WITH VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
THU NT-FRI...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE THU NT/EARLY FRI...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT...WILL CROSS THE
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
THU NT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF
ALBANY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FRI...WITH THE MOST FREQUENT SHOWERS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...WHICH WILL BE FROM I-90 NORTHWARD. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 40 TO AROUND 50. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID OR
UPPER 50S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST
HAVING PASSED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. WITH SOME LIGHT
QPF POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N-NW BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WELL.
SATURDAY MAY START OUT RATHER CLOUDY...BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. IT MAY TIME SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SOME FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
OUTSIDE THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND A W-SW BREEZE.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM OF
THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL RESULT IN EVEN WARMER AIR MOVING INTO OUR
REGION. HIGHS COULD APPROACH 70 FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING SO WILL ONLY MENTION A LOW PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE
THURSDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW SKIES TO
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MAINLY
SCATTERED DECK AT KALB AND KGFL...AND SCATTERED/BROKEN AT KPOU AND
KPSF. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN TOWARDS
EARLY EVENING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ANY
CEILING THAT DOES FORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AT KALB AND KPSF.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3-5 KFT ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING ALOFT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG WITH A LIGHT
BREEZE...SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AT
THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING TOWARDS
SUNRISE...AND IF THIS CLEARING OCCURS...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT KGFL...KPOU AND KPSF. A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG FORMATION AT KALB ALTHOUGH SOME
GROUND FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE IF WINDS BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT.
ANY PATCHY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 12Z THURSDAY ALONG
WITH ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT BETWEEN 4-8 KNOTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WHEN ONE
QUARTER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT BOTH TONIGHT AND WED NT...WITH DEW FORMATION LIKELY. THE
RH WILL FALL TO 45-55 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE
EARLY TONIGHT AT 5-15 MPH...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS IN THE ALBANY HYDRO
SERVICE AREA.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
THROUGH THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF A QUARTER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF
AN INCH OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE THU NT INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE MINOR RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS AGAIN TODAY...THEN COOL TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS
THURSDAY DUE TO A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT...AN AREA OF CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IN THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE...AREAS
OF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
REGION...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS AND SRN VT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THIN OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH MOST AREAS
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF A RAIN SHOWER
FOR THE FAR WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS UPPER RADAR IMAGERY AND THE
3KM HRRR ALL SUGGEST A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 65-70 RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
60-65 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS COULD OCCUR
IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE ADDITIONAL WARMING
DUE TO A STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING W/NW WIND MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S.
WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESP THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTH
INCREASES...AND MID LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN. EXPECT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH...WITH SOME STRONGER
GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...PERHAPS UP
TO 25-30 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME PASSING CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
MPH...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME GUSTINESS EARLY TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER AIR WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID
30S TO MID 40S.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO THE 60S
WITH VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
THU NT-FRI...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE THU NT/EARLY FRI...THEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT...WILL CROSS THE
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE
THU NT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS MAINLY N AND W OF
ALBANY BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
FRI...WITH THE MOST FREQUENT SHOWERS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING...WHICH WILL BE FROM I-90 NORTHWARD. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 40 TO AROUND 50. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID OR
UPPER 50S OVER THE ADIRONDACK ZONES...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST
HAVING PASSED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING. WITH SOME LIGHT
QPF POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N-NW BEHIND
THE FRONT AS WELL.
SATURDAY MAY START OUT RATHER CLOUDY...BUT SUNSHINE SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. IT MAY TIME SOME TIME FOR CLOUDS TO SCOUR OUT BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SOME FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
OUTSIDE THE HUDSON VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IT SHOULD REMAIN
DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND A W-SW BREEZE.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM OF
THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL RESULT IN EVEN WARMER AIR MOVING INTO OUR
REGION. HIGHS COULD APPROACH 70 FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING SO WILL ONLY MENTION A LOW PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WIDESPREAD STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
CIGS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN VFR RANGE EXCEPT FOR MVFR LEVELS AT
KPSF. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY VFR AT KPSF BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON TO SCOUR OUT...AS BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...
CLOUDS MAY RE-DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH CIGS IN VFR RANGE THOUGH.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 5 KT
THROUGH...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST AT NEAR 10 KT BY LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
COLUMBUS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF
EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE THU NT INTO FRI...WHEN ONE
QUARTER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100
PERCENT BOTH TONIGHT AND WED NT...WITH DEW FORMATION LIKELY. THE
RH WILL FALL TO 45-55 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO 90
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH DEW FORMATION.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NE
EARLY TONIGHT AT 5-15 MPH...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS IN THE ALBANY HYDRO
SERVICE AREA.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
THROUGH THURSDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF A QUARTER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF
AN INCH OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE THU NT INTO FRIDAY...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE MINOR RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1229 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
Visible satellite imagery at 9 am shows what`s left of the low
clouds and dense fog across Coles, Edgar and southern Vermilion
Counties. This will continue to shrink over the next hour, and
since the remainder of east central Illinois saw the fog lift an
hour or so ago, the advisory was allowed to expire. Otherwise,
little change was needed to the forecast, with partly cloudy skies
and most areas reaching the upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
As has been the case over the past couple of nights...fog is once
again developing across portions of central Illinois early this
morning. 08z/3am surface obs show widespread dense fog across
northeast Illinois into northwest Indiana. With surface ridge axis
still in place across the region...low-level flow is generally from
the N/NW as evidenced by area 925mb VAD wind profilers. Given this
trajectory...the current area of fog will likely advect/develop
slowly southward across mainly the eastern half of the KILX CWA over
the next few hours. HRRR has been consistently showing this signal
as well...so confidence is high that dense fog will develop across
the E. Based on HRRR forecast and latest obs...have decided to
issue a Dense Fog Advisory through 14z for all locations
along/northeast of a Bloomington...to Decatur...to Marshall line.
Mid-level cloudiness pushing slowly in from the W/NW should prevent
areas further west from seeing quite as much fog...so have only gone
with patchy fog in the forecast along/west of I-55. The fog will
gradually dissipate by mid-morning...with skies becoming partly to
mostly sunny during the afternoon. Resulting high temperatures will
be similar to yesterday in the middle to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
00z Oct 7 models have slowed the approach of the next cold front by
about 6 hours...with the boundary now remaining well W/NW of the
area through the day Thursday. As a result...have removed PoPs
across the NW CWA during the morning and have limited chance PoPs to
locations along/northwest of I-55 in the afternoon. With partly
sunny skies and strong/gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the
front...afternoon highs will soar into the lower 80s across the
board. Better rain chances will arrive Thursday night...as boundary
interacts with an increasingly moist low-level airmass characterized
by surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Due to the
slower arrival of the front after dark...daytime instability will be
waning with MUCAPES of less than 500J/kg. Despite weaker
instability than previously forecast...think increasing shear and
strong convergence along the boundary will be enough to trigger
scattered thunderstorms. Have carried likely PoPs with FROPA
Thursday night. Have also lingered rain chances a bit longer into
Friday morning...especially along/south of I-70. Front is progged
to drop into the Ohio River Valley by Friday afternoon...ending the
rain chances and introducing much cooler weather with highs
remaining in the middle to upper 60s.
After a chilly Friday night with lows in the middle 40s and a
seasonable day on Saturday with afternoon highs in the 60s...another
warming trend will get underway early next week. Rising upper
heights across the central CONUS will help temps rebound well into
the 70s by Sunday. Models are not in particularly good agreement
with the timing of the next weak cold front...with the latest GFS
speeding it up by about 12 hours and now bringing it through central
Illinois on Monday. Regardless of the timing...little to no low-
level moisture will be available...so will continue with a dry
forecast through the remainder of the extended. Have however cooled
highs on Monday from the lower 80s back into the middle to upper 70s
due to the faster arrival of the front.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
VFR conditions expected through much of the next 24 hours. As
high pressure axis shifts eastward, the light and persistent
north/northeast flow will become more south-southwest after 06Z
and increase to near 10 knots by Thursday morning. Currently
thinking that any fog that forms would mainly be south of KCMI,
and have only kept the TEMPO MVFR group at that site.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
ALTHOUGH FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MANY SITES STILL REPORTING A QUARTER MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY ACROSS
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND THUS EXTENDED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON. INCREASED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON YESTERDAY HIGHS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER
THERE THIS MORNING ALLOWING WARMING TO GET STARTED RIGHT AWAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OF CONCERN TODAY IS MORNING FOG.
VISIBILITIES HAVE AGAIN BEGUN TO PLUMMET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING WELL BELOW A MILE
AT THIS TIME. BASED ON HOW THE LAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE
EVOLVED...AND HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN
PERSISTENCE...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND
SOUTH...AND IT MAY ONLY OCCUR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND THE
DAYBREAK TIME FRAME...BUT FOR MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA DENSE FOG
WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS. DID BUMP THINGS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
FOG WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON MORNING HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ADD A BIT MORE
DETAIL TO GRIDS...BUT GENERAL IDEA OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE
SAME...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MIDDAY ONWARD.
WHILE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...MODEL K INDICES AND
SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
NONZERO THREAT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE...WITH MINOR TWEAKS
UPWARD THURSDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STUCK
NEAR SURFACE WETBULB PROGS FOR MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD RESULTING IN A PREDOMINANTLY QUIET EXTENDED.
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESIDE IN A RELATIVELY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U S. COLD
POOL IN WAKE OF THE FRIDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALREADY BE IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH WARMER AIR RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
BUMPED TEMPS UP ABOVE SUPERBLEND BOTH DAYS WITH SOLID WARM
ADVECTION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS NEAR 80 IN SOME AREAS MONDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND LIMITED TO
A THIN AXIS DIRECTLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ECMWF REMAINS MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN TRYING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED PRECIP AS THE UPPER WAVE
CATCHES UP TO THE BOUNDARY. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR THE
TIME BEING UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS CAN BE ACHIEVED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REESTABLISH FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. AFTER
A COOLER DAY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGHS WILL RETURN INTO
THE 70S WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ONCE AGAIN REVERTS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 071800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FOG AND STRATUS FROM
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED...WITH JUST SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LEANING TOWARDS PERSISTENCE TONIGHT AS LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT FOG FORMATION
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT AS STOUT WITH A SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPING...SO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE AS THICK
OR WIDESPREAD THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE IMPACTS AT THE
TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-LIFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS. EXPECT A QUICKER BURNOFF TO FOG
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
120 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
ALTHOUGH FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MANY SITES STILL REPORTING A QUARTER MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY ACROSS
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND THUS EXTENDED DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON. INCREASED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON YESTERDAY HIGHS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER
THERE THIS MORNING ALLOWING WARMING TO GET STARTED RIGHT AWAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OF CONCERN TODAY IS MORNING FOG.
VISIBILITIES HAVE AGAIN BEGUN TO PLUMMET ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING WELL BELOW A MILE
AT THIS TIME. BASED ON HOW THE LAST TWO MORNINGS HAVE
EVOLVED...AND HRRR VISIBILITY PROGS WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE GIVEN
PERSISTENCE...AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR THE DENSE FOG WILL EXPAND
SOUTH...AND IT MAY ONLY OCCUR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND THE
DAYBREAK TIME FRAME...BUT FOR MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA DENSE FOG
WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURE NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL PROGS. DID BUMP THINGS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
FOG WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON MORNING HEATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS ON FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ADD A BIT MORE
DETAIL TO GRIDS...BUT GENERAL IDEA OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE
SAME...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MIDDAY ONWARD.
WHILE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...MODEL K INDICES AND
SREF THUNDER PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THUNDER IS A
NONZERO THREAT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES APPEARED REASONABLE...WITH MINOR TWEAKS
UPWARD THURSDAY AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STUCK
NEAR SURFACE WETBULB PROGS FOR MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
A SOMEWHAT FAST ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE
OF FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BY DAY 7. THE 00Z EURO INDICATES PRECIP IS POSSIBLE SOME
AREAS LATE MONDAY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL INDICATE A BIT MORE
CLOUDS ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL SATURDAY...WARMING SOME SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND TURNING A LITTLE COOLER AFTER THE 2ND COLD FRONT BY DAY 7.
MODEL INITIALIZATION SEEMS REASONABLE ON TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS...
BUT TWEAKED THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY DAY 7 BASED ON THE NEW GFS AND EURO.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 071800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE
PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FOG AND STRATUS FROM
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED...WITH JUST SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
LEANING TOWARDS PERSISTENCE TONIGHT AS LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT FOG FORMATION
AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT AS STOUT WITH A SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPING...SO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE AS THICK
OR WIDESPREAD THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE IMPACTS AT THE
TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-LIFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS. EXPECT A QUICKER BURNOFF TO FOG
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/CP
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RYAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
109 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TONIGHT WILL BEGIN
MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE THURSDAY MORNING BUT PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND PARTS
OF NORTHWEST OHIO.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
DENSE FOG THAT HAD FORMED AROUND SUNRISE IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY BURN OFF WITH INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND WARMING.
VISIBILITIES AT SEVERAL REPORTING SITES COMING UP TO BETWEEN ONE
HALF AND TWO MILES AT 930AM. STILL A FEW SITES AROUND ONE QUARTER
MILE OR LESS...ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTH AGAINST IND CWA. PLANNING
ON ALLOWING ADVISORY TO EXPIRE MOST AREAS BUT AFTER COLLABORATION
WILL EXTEND ADVISORY IN FAR SOUTH FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.
SATELLITE SHOWS RATHER DENSE OVC IN THIS AREA SO MAY TAKE AN HOUR
OR TWO TO SEE VIS IMPROVE THERE. WILL COVER REMAINING LOCAL AREAS
WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
FOR THE SHORT TERM. A RATHER COMPLICATED SATELLITE PICTURE AT
PRESS TIME WITH STRATUS IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN CLEAR
SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO. PAIR OF WEAK AND HIGHLY SHEARED SHORTWAVES
WILL DRIVE THE CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. FIRST ONE...WHICH
ACTUALLY SHOWS UP WELL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA AND THE SUBTLE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH STRATUS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME FOG ALREADY SEEN UNDER STRATUS AND ANY
AREAS THAT MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD SEE
SOME DENSER FOG DEVELOP AS WELL. MEANWHILE...700MB MOISTURE PLUME
NOTED JUST UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS.
TOUGH TO GAUGE WHAT THE IMPACT WILL BE TO SITES THAT ARE ALREADY
SOCKED IN WITH FOG. A FEW OBS SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE. HRRR INDICATES FOG WILL
CONTINUE AND EXPAND THROUGH THE MORNING. DENSE FOG IS NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS WOULD LIKE TO SEE FOR AN ADVISORY BUT ENOUGH
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL EVIDENCE TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
THIS MORNING AND HAVE JOINED OUR NEIGHBORS IN HOISTING AN
ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT VISIBILITIES ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE
AND SOME LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES MAY NOT EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG. BASED ON LATEST HI-
RES/RAPID UPDATE SOUNDINGS...SUSPECT DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF
RELATIVELY QUICKLY (AROUND 14Z)...THOUGH AN HOUR OR TWO EXTENSION
MAY BE NECESSARY IN A FEW AREAS. AFTERWARD...TRANQUIL WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS SECONDARY WIND SHIFT/CAA PUSHES THROUGH AND
HAVE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD
DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT MIN TEMPS
AROUND 50F WITH A LOW CHANCE OF FOG GIVEN INCREASED LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND DRIER PROFILES.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
NRN STREAM SW TROUGH OVR SE BC THIS MORNING PRIMARY WX
FTR OF NOTE THIS PD AS IT TRANSLATES ESE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES BY THU
NIGHT. OVERALL POOR RTN MSTR ADVTN AHD OF THIS SYS AND NWD TRACK OF
PRIMARY WAVE AND ASSOCD/HGT FALLS POINT TO BTR PRECIP
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WELL NORTH ACRS LWR MI W/CHCS TAILING OFF W/SWD
EXTENT. PRIMARY CHG EARLY ON IS TO TRUNCATE MENTIONABLE POP WINDOW
GIVEN WIDESPREAD MODEL AGREEMENT ON SEWD PROGRESSION OF CDFNT.
OTRWS BROAD ANTICYCLONE BLDS SEWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF
THIS SYS W/SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS FRI-SAT FOLLOWED BY QUICK
MODERATION AS NXT IN SERIES OF NRN STREAM WAVES AMPLIFIES EWD ACRS
SRN CANADA ERLY NXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD AS DENSE FOG HAS
DISSIPATED AND SKIES WERE CLEARING. FOG FORMATION TONIGHT
CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS PREVIOUS
NIGHTS DUE TO SEVERAL REASONS INCLUDING INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AND STRONGER WINDS IN THE 1000-950MB LAYER AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. COULD STILL SEE SOME DECOUPLING OF SFC WINDS PRIOR TO MID
CLOUD ARRIVAL CLOSER TO KFWA AND THIS COMPLICATES MATTERS WITH
WHETHER ANY FOG CAN FORM. WITH EXPECTATION OF IT BEING BRIEF AND
MORE PATCHY IF IT INDEED DEVELOPS HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN
THIS TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...LASHLEY
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
214 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED MID
LEVEL LOW ACROSS SW US...WITH MEAN TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDS ACROSS OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL WEAK CONVERGENT AREAS
LONG SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND ALONG
THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
THIS AFTERNOON...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AS LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN
CLEARING AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LED TO CU
FIELD/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. SB
CAPE VALUES 500-1000 J/KG ACCORDING TO RAP ANALYSIS SHOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE UPDRAFTS. WEAK SHEER AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL DESPITE
COOLER TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT. DUE TO THE MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN DRY AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST BL FLOW HELPING DRY OUT BOUNDARY
LAYER. I STILL COULDNT RULE OUT VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN REGIONS OF
PEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING/LIGHT WINDS...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED. I DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING MENTION IN ZONES AS GUIDANCE
SHOWS DRIER BL CONDITIONS PERSISTING. STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARDS OUR CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA BY 00Z. INCREASING LIFT
AND INSTABILITY ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHERN
CWA. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS FROM THE WEST. THE PATH OF THE TROUGH HAS CHANGED LITTLE
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER THE LATEST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE
DECREASED THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...LEADING TO A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
DEVELOPING. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR TWO ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL DURING THE NIGHT...OR ONE LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL. THE
FIRST ROUND WILL DEVELOP AS THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE LIFT
TO DEVELOP IN THE 800-700MB LAYER AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
DECLINE IN THAT LAYER.
BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND THE MAIN AREA OF RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP.
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW STRONG LIFT CENTERED IN THE 500-400MB
LAYER...BUT ALSO EXTENDING OUTSIDE OF THIS LAYER FOR SOME PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SATURATED OR CLOSE TO
SATURATION AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR ZERO WITHIN THE
STRONG LIFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A BAND OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
RAINFALL SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE BAND OF LIFT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA DUE TO THE LIFT INCREASING. THE BEST LIFT SHOULD BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING WHEN
THE LIFT IS AT ITS PEAK.
BEHIND THE MAIN BAND OF LIFT THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN PRIMARILY THE 400-500MB LAYER. THERE IS STILL SOME
WEAK LIFT OVERLAPPING THE FN VECTOR DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTOGENESIS...SO COULD FORESEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAINFALL
BEHIND THE MAIN BAND.
MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RAINFALL WILL EXIT THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT...HOWEVER THE AREA WILL BE DRY WELL BEFORE SUNRISE.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BEHIND THE FRONT NEAR SUNRISE WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW 40S FOR THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
THE AREA.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SO DRY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN SOME
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE
COOLEST. SOME PARTS OF THE AREA WILL NEAR 90 DEGREES SUNDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TUESDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY WARM UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
MVFR CIGS (2000 KFT AGL) HAVE SPREAD OVER THE KGLD TERMINAL AND
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING EDGE JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL.
GUIDANCE SHOWS PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
EAST AND BL FLOW SHIFT TO THE SOUTH INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL I
LIMIT MENTION TO THE FIRST HOUR OF THIS TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AS
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF
PERIOD WITH INCREASING BL MIXING OVERNIGHT LIMITING FOG/STRATUS
POTENTIAL. WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED AT KMCK BY 12Z I CANT RULE OUT
RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AND POSSIBLY SPREADING TOWARDS THE
TERMINAL...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THIS IS NOT FAVORED BY GUIDANCE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1122 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING...LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HOW WARM IT GETS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND HOW COOL DOES IT GET BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW
STILL REMAINS IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS FOLLOWED BY THE CANADIAN ARE DOING THE BEST
ON THE JET. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/NAM. THE RAP/SREF WERE DOING THE BEST
ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE SREF/NAM/GFS/CANADIAN
WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...LOT OF STUFF GOING ON TODAY. INITIALLY THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN A MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. SO THROUGH MID MORNING HAVE INSERTED
A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THAT AREA. NEXT...FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF CLOUD COVER. THAT HAS KEPT THE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LARGE. SO LITTLE TO NO FOG HAS DEVELOPED. HOWEVER A
CLEAR SLOT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE LATEST RAP LOOKS TO BE CATCHING THAT AND DEVELOPS FOG OVER
THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. SO WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR
THERE AND PATCHY TO THE EAST OF THAT.
JET LIFT STARTS OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING AND TENDS TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY IS MORE
DIFFUSE AND UNORGANIZED. LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS COME THROUGH TO HELP THIS LIFT OUT. FIRST ONE MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTION THIS MORNING THEN ANOTHER ONE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD THIS AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS ARE CURRENTLY OVERDOING PRECIPITATION. SO GOING BY
THE ABOVE REASONING WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LITTLE TO NO LIFT AND MOISTURE AROUND FOR TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP THIS
PERIOD DRY. SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND PREFRONTAL WARMING WILL KEEP
MINS MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE SLOWER FROM YESTERDAY IN MOVING
THE FRONT THROUGH BY ABOUT SIX HOURS. MODELS ARE ALSO SLOWER IN
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON AND ACTUALLY KEEP IT GOING
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET MIGHT BE CLOSE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MID LEVEL
LIFT...MAINLY IN THE NORTH...THERE WILL BE DECENT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE. FEEL MOST LOCATIONS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION SO BROADBRUSHED A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON.
SO WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...IF CLOUDS DO NOT HINDER THE
WARMING...THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF...COULD WARM UP
RATHER NICELY. WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN
ADVANCE...DID WARM UP MAXES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING. A MUCH STRONGER
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF JET NOSES IN/MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY ALONG WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE BEST IN THE EVENING ALONG WITH THE
FAVORABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES. MODELS HAVE MORE QPF THAN LAST
NIGHT... ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. SO COVERED THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THE HIGHER POPS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST YOU GET.
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW FAST DO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CLEAR
OUT. BECAUSE WITH THE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THEY LAST THE LONGEST IN
THE SOUTH AND WEST. SO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE MADE
THE COOLEST.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS LOOK IN STORE WITH A MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH
THEY COOL THE TEMPERATURES. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF SUN WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RECYCLED COOL AIR OVER MOST OF
THE AREA EXCEPT MAYBE THE FAR WEST. SO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND
TENDED TO GO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO EXTREMES AND WHERE THE MOST OF
THE TEMPERATURES CLUSTERED.
FRIDAY NIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE COOL DEPENDING HOW STRONG
THE WINDS END UP BEING. SO LOWERED THE MINS A LITTLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE REGION. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. HOWEVER...LACK OF
MOISTURE SHOULD INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. BROAD RIDGING REDEVELOPS
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...BRINGING
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2015
MVFR CIGS (2000 KFT AGL) HAVE SPREAD OVER THE KGLD TERMINAL AND
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING EDGE JUST WEST OF THE TERMINAL.
GUIDANCE SHOWS PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS
EAST AND BL FLOW SHIFT TO THE SOUTH INSTEAD OF SOUTHEAST. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL I
LIMIT MENTION TO THE FIRST HOUR OF THIS TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AS
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF
PERIOD WITH INCREASING BL MIXING OVERNIGHT LIMITING FOG/STRATUS
POTENTIAL. WITH CALM WINDS EXPECTED AT KMCK BY 12Z I CANT RULE OUT
RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AND POSSIBLY SPREADING TOWARDS THE
TERMINAL...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THIS IS NOT FAVORED BY GUIDANCE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE NRN CONUS AND SRN CANADA. A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
LOCATED OVER THE SE CORNER OF SASKATCHEWAN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA FROM SE SASK THROUGH SRN MANITOBA INTO CNTRL AND NE ND. AT
THE SFC...SRLY WINDS HAD INCREASED OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO WRN MN
BTWN HIGH PRES OVER NRN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR AND A TROUGH AND
WARM FRONT FROM SRN SASK INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. VIS LOOP SHOWED
DIMINISHING SC AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE ERN CWA AS HIGH PRES
AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
SASK SHRTWV WERE ALREADY STREAMING THROUGH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN
UPPER MI.
THE MODELS REMAINED IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING/POSITION OF THE SHRTWV AND SFC LOW MOVING INTO UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO STRONG 700-300
QVECTOR CONV AND UPPER LEVEL DIV WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WEST AFTER 06Z...CNTRL
AFT 10Z AND EAST BY 14Z. MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 200 J/KG AND
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES ALSO SUPPORT TSRA POTENTIAL OVER THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND PWAT TO AROUND
1.0 INCH...QPF AMOUNTS IN THE 0.4 TO 0.7 INCH RANGE ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTH. WITH LINGERING DEEP
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC NRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHER POPS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY FOR
UPSLOPE NRLY FLOW LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM W
TO E BTWN 15Z-21Z.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF THE CWA THU NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO
NW FLOW ALOFT UNTIL A RIDGE MOVES OVER SUN AHEAD OF A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO
MON...THEN NW FLOW THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THU NIGHT...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL RESULT
IN UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT REGIONS INTO FRI MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS DROP
TO AROUND 0C. A SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CUTTING OFF PRECIP BY LATE MORNING AND LAKE CLOUDS FROM W
TO E BY LATE FRI. WILL LINGER CLOUD COVER LONGER SINCE MODELS TEND
TO CLEAR SKIES TOO FAST IN THIS SCENARIO.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AHEAD AND UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
THAT WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPS SAT AND SUN. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE FROM 0C AT 18Z FRI TO 20C BY
00Z MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS SUN. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF SW WINDS ON
SUN...FIRE WEATHER MAY BE A GREATER CONCERN GIVEN TEMPS 15F TO MAYBE
20F ABOVE NORMAL AND HOW LITTLE RAIN MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN OVER THE
LAST MONTH.
ALL MODEL HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER AND FARTHER S WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT AND MON.
MOST MODELS NOW HAVE QPF ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...SO WILL BE
INCREASING POPS. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH IN THE LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT MODELS ONLY HAVE
SOME SCATTERED AND LIGHT QPF NEAR THE AREA. WILL LET MODEL CONSENSUS
POPULATE THE FORECAST FOR TUE AND WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z. THEN...A NEARING LOW FROM
THE WEST WILL BRING SHOWERS STARTING AT IWD AND MOVING TO SAW BY OR
AROUND 12Z. MODERATE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED...WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO
MVFR RANGE BY 12Z AND TO LOWER END MVFR OR IFR DURING THE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED OCT 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST THROUGH NRN ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ERN ND AND FAR W MN THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE ACROSS W UPPER MI THURSDAY MORNING WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TO
NEARING 30KTS OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BEFORE EXITING
ACROSS N LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THURSDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE LOW
NRLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FRI AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SW WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SAT AS THE RIDGE
SLIDES OFF TO THESE AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER CNTRL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
253 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
TIMING AND PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN CURRENTLY. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST ENTERING NORTHWESTERN ND. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY DOWN
TOWARDS CENTRAL ND...AND WITH SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED CAPE...A FEW
HAVE GROWN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDER. RAIN HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT
SLOW TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR AT THE SFC...BUT WEB CAMS
SHOW SOME LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN GETTING HEAVIER RETURNS HAVE
BEEN SATURATED. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT BEEN DOING TOO BADLY
WITH THE POPS SO FOLLOWED THEIR TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THINK
THAT THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THE
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THINK WE WILL DRY OUT BY
MORNING AS THIS FAIRLY FAST MOVING SYSTEM MOVES BY. LOWERED PRECIP
AMOUNTS JUST A BIT AS SOME OF THE FIRST RAIN HAS NOT REACHED THE
GROUND...BUT THINK THAT THE NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE AROUND A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH.
TOMORROW...THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY OFF INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
IT. THERE HAS BEEN SOME GOOD RH VALUES AT 850MB SO THINK THAT
CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED THURSDAY.
BETWEEN CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TEMPS SHOULD STAY IN THE
50S...WITH THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING IT RATHER RAW. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS COULD
AGAIN GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. HAVE COORDINATED WITH
NEIGHBORS A CONTINUATION OF FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AT LEAST...BUT HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY HEADLINES FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT AT THIS POINT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO
UPPER RIDGING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SFC WILL PICK
UP AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMING UP FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE
60S...BUT READINGS WILL BE EVEN WARMER FOR SATURDAY AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 C.
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD GET NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK ON
SATURDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...OVERALL A DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY TIME FRAME WITH POPS WILL BE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO THE THE EARLY MONDAY HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE AND FROPA
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THAT WAVE WILL BE NEAR
RECORD WARM TEMPS ON SUNDAY...UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH IDEAL
WESTERLY SFC WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 15 TO 20C RANGE. BEHIND
THE FROPA TEMPS WILL BE LOWER BUT STILL TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID OCTOBER...LOW TO MID 60S FOR MAX TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
CHALLENGING TAF ISSUANCE WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...20 TO
25KTS...EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE.
COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS TURNING TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST. THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE POOR SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS BEHIND
THE NW WIND SHIFT/FRONT EXPECTED AT ALL SITES EXCLUDING KFAR. GUSTY
NW WINDS TOMORROW MORNING...20 TO 25KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
320 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
TOOK A FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE STEP TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY SOUTH AND WEST OF LA CROSSE. CONSENSUS SIGNALS ARE
POINTING TO WISCONSIN...AND NORTH OF I-90 FOR RAIN.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE SEEN IN GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SCREAMING FOR THE GREAT LAKES. RADAR SHOWING STORMS
OVER ND...MORE THAN MANY OF THE HIGHER RES CAMS HAD FORECAST AT
19Z. LIGHTNING INTO ND-CANADA TOO AND REALLY AGREES WELL WITH
300-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PER RAP 07.18Z RUN. THIS ALL IN AN
SPC ANALYSIS OF 100-250 J/KG OF MUCAPE. NOT TO GIVE AWAY THE END
OF MY STORY...BUT THAT QG SIGNAL CARRIES THROUGH NRN WI...MAINLY
NORTH OF I-94 BY 12Z THURSDAY.
THE ND STORMS ALSO ARE FORMING IN AN AREA OF GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS.
SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL THERE AS WELL WITH 3-4 MB
FALLS AHEAD OF A N-S WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
TRENDS BOTH IN THE OBSERVATIONS AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CARRY THE FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH RAINFALL TRENDS
FOLLOWING SUIT. THE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE SIGNAL ALOFT...LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALL POINT TOWARD A GOOD
SYNOPTICALLY FORCED RAIN/EMBEDDED TSRA WAVE THURSDAY ACROSS
WISCONSIN...BUT MAINLY NORTH OF I-94. FURTHER SOUTH...THE BEST
FORCING SEEMS TO BE COLD FRONTAL THETAE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS. HOWEVER...THAT IS THE LAYER THAT IS THE DRIEST WITH
RELATIVELY LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE SURFACE TO 2 KM LAYER.
THUS...THERE ARE ISSUES WITH SATURATION. THE MID-LEVELS HAVE SOME
SATURATION AND THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY OF ABOUT 500 J/KG.
OVERALL...TIMING TRENDS REMAINED THE SAME WITH MAINLY MORNING RAIN
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED FORCING
AND CONSENSUS HI RES CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOWING LIMITED
RAIN COVERAGE WEST AND SOUTH OF LA CROSSE...THINKING AN ISOLATED
TO SCT LINE OF SHRA-TSRA IS THE BEST WE ARE GOING TO DO ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. THAT LINE WOULD AFFECT A GIVEN SPOT FOR AN HOUR. BEEN
WATCHING THE HRRR BOULDER VERSION AND IT REMAINS CONSISTENT ON
THIS THU MORNING FORECAST.
THUS...HAVE BACKED THE RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 50 PERCENT SOUTH
OF ABOUT I-90...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT INCREASING NORTHWARD. HAVE
ALSO LOWERED THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THAT LOWER RAIN CHANCE AREA.
THE FRONT MAY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVATED WORKING INTO SW WI WHERE
A BIT OF INSTABILITY WILL GROW. SPC HAS A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK...AND IT SEEMS REALLY MARGINAL PROVIDED THE FRONT WILL MOVE
OUT BY 3-4 PM /OF GRANT COUNTY/. FOR THE MOST PART...THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA HAS A SIMILAR FORECAST TO EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD
ADVECTION KICKS IN POST-FRONTALLY ON THURSDAY WITH BRISK
CONDITIONS...DRAWING A LOWER CLOUD DECK IN FROM THE NORTH...WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
THIS PERIOD IS MAINLY DRY WITH RIDGE BUILDING AND MAINLY WEAK
WAVES TRYING TO GENERATE WEATHER. THE EMPHASIS WAS REALLY ON
LOOKING FOR POSSIBLE DAYS FOR DRY FALL FIRE STARTS. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ARE WARM ADVECTIVE DAYS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HAVE
INCREASED THESE A BIT WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE
SATURDAY. THIS COULD HAPPEN SUNDAY AS WELL...AS A WARM PROD OF AIR
MOVES OFF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...A GREAT
FLOW FOR UNUSUALLY WARMTH. HAVE BUMPED HIGHS SUNDAY TO JUST BELOW
RECORD LEVELS WEST OF THE MISS RIVER...CLOSER TO THE HOT AIR.
A MODERATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH ON
MONDAY BUT THE VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT IS BATTLING THE DYNAMICS. THIS
TRANSITIONS TO A BIT COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. WILL KEEP OUR EYES ON THIS ONE AS IT SEEMS IT COULD
PRODUCE SOME RAIN...EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL FORECAST CONSENSUS IS
DRY. BUT IT LOOKS TO BE A WIND PRODUCER WITH ANOTHER 20-30 MPH DAY.
AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...ALREADY DRY...WILL REALLY NEED RAIN AFTER
THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING AREA SKIES MAINLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CLOUD BY EVENING WITH
A BROKEN MID-LEVEL DECK BY MIDNIGHT. BEST FORCING AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE OVER NORTHERN MN/WI...BUT THERE
IS ENOUGH SUPPORT TO INCLUDE SHOWERS AT BOTH TAF SITES. LOOKING
LIKE ABOUT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR THE HIGHEST RISK FOR RAIN SO
TRIED TO LIMIT IT TO THAT. LOOKING LIKE VERY LITTLE RESTRICTION TO
VISIBILITY AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER CONCERN IS WIND GUSTS. GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COULD HELP SOUTH WINDS GUST OVER 20KTS...AND
THEN GOOD MIXING BEHIND IT WOULD SUGGEST NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTS OF
20-25KTS. MODEL FORECASTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST A LOW/MVFR
STRATO-CU FIELD MOVING IN...BUT SHOULD BE LAG OF 1-2 HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...MW