Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/06/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
951 AM MST SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA. EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
EARLY OCTOBER. DRIER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE AREA
TODAY. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS
CONTINUED TO POINT TO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE MOST ACTIVE IN
TERMS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE THREAT OF HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS TRACK THE
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON TUESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING TO MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON
TRACK SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/18Z.
PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING SCT-BKN 6-10 KFT THIS MORNING. ISOLD -SHRA/TS
POSSIBLE NEAR ALL TERMINALS...INCREASING TO SCT -SHRA/TS COVERAGE BY
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS FROM KTUS EAST. SFC WINDS
INCREASING TO 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH KEEPING A SOUTHERLY
INFLUENCE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK WEEK
AND AFTERNOON BREEZES PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE LOW QUICKLY
DIGS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS AN INTERESTING
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THIS...CAPTURING THE DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S SPREADING NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING NICELY (UP 4 TO 10
DEGREES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO). SOME CU FIELDS ENHANCING A LITTLE
FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NORTHWARD THROUGH PIMA COUNTY...THE
LATEST HRRR AND 06Z UA WRF-NAM HINTING AT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY WEST
OF TUCSON THIS MORNING. WE`LL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.
THE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO LOSE MUCH OF IT`S HIGHER LATITUDE
SUPPORT AS IT KICKS EASTWARD A LITTLE SLOWER MONDAY. WE`LL BE SEEING
AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STORM
ENHANCEMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE FILLING A BIT AS IT SAGS THROUGH THE STATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL KEEP A DECENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
IN EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO
WELL BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS SINCE MID MAY ON THURSDAY MORNING...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN
COOLEST EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S IN SOME
LOCATIONS AROUND PIMA COUNTY (THE ONLY THREAT FOR FREEZING WILL BE
ABOVE 10K FEET).
AFTER MOST OF THE ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE TRYING TO LEAVE SOME WEAK REMNANT SAGGY TROUGH
ENERGY SOMEWHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST MEXICO TO END THE
WEEK. THIS WOULD TEND TO SLOW ANY WARMING TREND FROM THE WEST COAST
RIDGE TRYING TO PHASE IN...AS WELL AS KEEPING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
IN THE PICTURE. LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP BUT NOT ZERO.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA. EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
EARLY OCTOBER. DRIER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE LOW QUICKLY DIGS
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS AN INTERESTING LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THIS...CAPTURING THE DEW POINTS IN THE
50S SPREADING NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING NICELY (UP 4 TO 10 DEGREES
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO). SOME CU FIELDS ENHANCING A LITTLE FROM
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NORTHWARD THROUGH PIMA COUNTY...THE LATEST
HRRR AND 06Z UA WRF-NAM HINTING AT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF
TUCSON THIS MORNING. WE`LL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.
THE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO LOSE MUCH OF IT`S HIGHER LATITUDE
SUPPORT AS IT KICKS EASTWARD A LITTLE SLOWER MONDAY. WE`LL BE SEEING
AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STORM
ENHANCEMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE FILLING A BIT AS IT SAGS THROUGH THE STATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL KEEP A DECENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
IN EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO
WELL BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS SINCE MID MAY ON THURSDAY MORNING...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN
COOLEST EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S IN SOME
LOCATIONS AROUND PIMA COUNTY (THE ONLY THREAT FOR FREEZING WILL BE
ABOVE 10K FEET).
AFTER MOST OF THE ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE TRYING TO LEAVE SOME WEAK REMNANT SAGGY TROUGH
ENERGY SOMEWHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST MEXICO TO END THE
WEEK. THIS WOULD TEND TO SLOW ANY WARMING TREND FROM THE WEST COAST
RIDGE TRYING TO PHASE IN...AS WELL AS KEEPING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
IN THE PICTURE. LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP BUT NOT ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING SCT-BKN 6-10 KFT THIS MORNING. ISOLD -SHRA/TS
POSSIBLE NEAR ALL TERMINALS...INCREASING TO SCT -SHRA/TS COVERAGE BY
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS FROM KTUS EAST. SFC WINDS
GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS THROUGH 4/16Z...INCREASING TO 12-18 KTS WITH
GUSTS 20-25KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET...THOUGH KEEPING A SOUTHERLY INFLUENCE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK WEEK
AND AFTERNOON BREEZES PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/HUMPHREYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
940 PM PDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Storm moving into NorCal will bring cooler weather, windy
conditions, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms this
weekend. Showers will linger into Monday over the Sierra Nevada
south of Highway 50.
&&
.DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Upper low over Norcal will be dropping SSWwd to just S of the SFO
Bay area by 06z and S of our CWA by 12z Sun. Strong cyclonic flow
around the low has resulted in precip trending a little farther Wwd
over our CWA and we adjusted the PoP line a little farther Wwd to
include Solano Co per the HRRR model. T-storms have been pulsing and
mainly in the NErn quadrant of the upper low. As the upper low
continues to drop SSWwd tonite...the precip/isolated clusters of
T-storms should also sag Swd. Instability may linger past 06z so
have updated the forecasts to include a chance of thunder past the
midnite hour mainly S of Plumas/Sierra Co-KCIC line.
Leading edge of Nly winds has also been evident on radar as line of
convergence and initiating showers/storms along the convergent zone.
The activity has been quick to pulse up/down and may include small
hail. Behind the line the Nly winds are increasing and more or less
verifying the wind advsry at several of the sites. Valley winds on
the wane at press time...and will likely let advsry for the
valley expire at 11 pm. JHM
.Previous Discussion...
Total rain amounts will mostly be light in the valley (trace amounts
to a few hundredths) while rain over the western Sierra slopes could
range from a tenth of an inch up to a half inch (locally higher near
the crest and in vicinity of thunderstorms). Snow levels will be
above 9000 ft so light snow amounts are possible near the Sierra
Crest.
The primary concern with this storm are the increasing winds as
this storm tracks across our region. 3 pm wind observations at
Redding Airport had gusts close to 40 mph...Sacramento
International gusts near 25 mph...Vacaville gusts near 30 mph.
Strongest north to northeast winds this evening will be in the
Northern/Western Sacramento Valley and the Coastal Range between
Shasta County to Lake County with gusts up to 40 mph for valley
and up to 50 mph in higher terrain. Overnight, northeasterly winds
will also pick up along the western Sierra slopes north of
Interstate 80 with gusts 40-50 mph. Winds could easily knock down
large branches and trees that have been weakened by the drought
and wildfires. Downed trees may cause power outages or damage
vehicles/buildings. Wind advisory remains in effect overnight into
Sunday morning. Winds will gradually lessen throughout the day
Sunday and any shower activity should be limited to areas south of
Interstate 80.
Another concern overnight is whether thunderstorms develop near
burnscars along the Sierra Nevada. Heavy downpours from the
thunderstorms could cause debris flows (ie near the Butte Fire).
JBB
Showers may linger over the Sierra south of Highway 50 on Monday
due to wraparound moisture from the Low over southern NV/southeast
CA area. Ridging builds in with gradually increasing temperatures
and dry conditions as the Low weakens and moves eastward.
JClapp
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Upper level high pressure ridging expected to remain over the
western U.S through the extended period. Genreally light winds are
expected through this time. Daytime highs Wednesday are forecast
to come in near to a little above normal. Temperatures will warm
slightly each day reaching several degrees above normal by next
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Upper low dropping southward through northern California over
next 24 hours. Scattered Showers and isolated thunderstorms
mainly over the sierra tonight. VFR conditons expected next 24
horus with ceilings above 50k feet. Gusty winds over the
Sacrametno valley...coastal mountains and southern Cascades into
Sunday. North to northeast wind gusts over 40 mph possible.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Central Sacramento
Valley-Clear Lake/Southern Lake County-Mountains Southwestern
Shasta County to Northern Lake County-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Shasta
Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-Western Plumas County/Lassen
Park.
RED FLAG WARNING until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Central Sacramento
Valley in Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern Sutter, and Butte County
Below 1000 Ft-Eastern Mendocino NF-Eastern Portion of
Shasta/Trinity NF-Lake County Portion of Lake-Napa-Sonoma Unit-
Northern Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama County Line Below
1000 Ft-Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western Portions of
Tehama-Glenn Unit-Southern Sacramento Valley in Yolo-Sacramento
Far Western Placer, southern Sutter and Solano County Below 1000
Ft.
&&
$$
IN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST DISCUSSION...IDEAL NEAR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD COMMENCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK
INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40F FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES OR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRANQUIL
WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE
RATHER CLOSE AND VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST GRIDS
SO LITTLE ENHANCEMENTS WERE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
STILL SOME QUESTION HOW MUCH ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO OUR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ADVECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. RH VALUES WITHIN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL
GUIDANCE STILL POINT TOWARD RATHER HIGH VALUES WITHIN THE H850-700
LAYER ADVECTING INTO EASTERN NY MONDAY EVENING THEN ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWFA INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS PRIMARILY ALONG THE THERMAL
TROUGH AXIS AS WE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE PERCENTAGE WHICH
WILL STILL SPELL OUT PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF JOAQUIN AND THE ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
SOUTHERN TROUGH TO OUR EAST...A MORE NORMAL ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CONUS AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY THE WEEKEND...THERE IS SOME DISPARITY AMONG THE LONG TERM MODELS
REGARDING THE OVERALL TELE-CONNECTION. THE GFS AND CANADIAN HINT OF
RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATED A
TROUGH BEGINNING TO BUILD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS RIDGE DEVELOPS
IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS.
SO CONFIDENCE STARTS HIGH IN THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...FALLING
TO AT LEAST MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST OPENS UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY WEATHER
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE LOOKS
TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY...A DISTURBANCE INCLUDING SOME SORT OF LOW CENTER AND A
COLD FRONT...WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE
EUROPEAN FORECASTED THE DEEPEST LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHILE THE
CANADIAN OFFERED THE WEAKEST AND SLOWEST SOLUTION (A MUCH LESS DEEP
LOW PRESSURE CENTER)...NOT REACHING OUR REGION UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
12Z GFS WAS IN THE MIDDLE REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE DEPTH...BUT
FASTER LIKE THE ECMWF.
FOR NOW...WE WILL INCLUDE MAINLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE BETTER
FORCING AND AND UPSLOPE LIFT WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH
THE DIFFERENCE FORECAST SOLUTIONS (THE CANADIAN MUCH SLOWER AND
IMPLYING SHOWERS ON SATURDAY)...WE WENT WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
IF THE 12Z GFS IS CORRECT...MORE MOISTURE COULD BEGIN TO BE POOLED
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS EARLY AS NEXT SUNDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA.
THE ECMWF HAS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION BY
SUNDAY (AGAIN WITH A TROUGH BUILDING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD). THIS WOULD IMPLY A MAINLY DRY SOLUTION BUT STILL
THERE IS A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN FORECAST PUSHING INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS.
SINCE BOTH MODELS SUGGEST SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS NEXT
SUNDAY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOKS PRETTY SPOT ON TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
ABOUT SATURDAY...COOLING A BIT NEXT SUNDAY TO THE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN ZONES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. AS A
RESULT MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND ONLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS FROM TIME TO TIME.
WINDS WILL BE N-NE AT 6-10 KTS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN N-NE AT
4-5 KTS MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NT-THURSDAY NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD FOR ALL OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE.
FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
RECENT WET CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 AND NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FROST AND DEW. MINIMUM RH VALUES OF
35 TO 50 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS WILL BE LIKELY ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS IN THE ALBANY HYDRO
SERVICE AREA.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO SEASONAL
LEVELS FROM THE HEAVIER RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KENX RADAR IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO A
PEDESTAL ERROR.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NYZ038>041-047-054-058-061-082-084.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-042-043-083.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
944 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL EXTEND SOUTH OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
MONDAY, KEEPING A STATIONARY FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE, THE
FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES IT CLOSE TO BERMUDA,
AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY, MOVING NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE, FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THRU OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6PM THIS EVENING. WINDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE GUSTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WE SHOULD
START TO SEE A DECREASING TREND AND WE EXPECT TO FALL BELOW
CRITERIA LATER TODAY.
OTHERWISE, MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWS THE
MESOSCALE HRRR AND HI RES ARW THE CLOSEST AS THEY ARE MATCHING THE
ONGOING DRIZZLE OBS THE BEST. ITS MENTION IS MAINLY FROM THE I95
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WE HAVE MADE THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
DRY BEFORE STARTING TO BRING BACK CHANCES LATE AS ANOTHER SLUG OF
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE OUR WAY. ANY
CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE POCONOS
AND OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS. WE WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS
CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE DAY PEAKS
THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT RELAXATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR, BETTER MIXING THOUGH KEEPS GUSTS RELATIVELY THE SAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WE BRING BACK CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
IN INTERIOR AREAS, WE SHOULD FINALLY START SEEING A RELAXATION IN
THE WINDS, ALTHOUGH GUSTINESS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE FETCH FOR MOST OF OUR CWA IS
STILL FROM THE OCEAN. SO OTHER THAN THE POCONOS, NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT
MUCH CLEARING IN OUR CWA. WE WENT WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE,
CLOUDIER GUIDANCE AND OUR MIN TEMPS ARE TOWARD THE HIGHER RANGE OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
A PERIOD OF TRANSITION IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AS REX BLOCK OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THIS OCCURS, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY. A
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US /THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BLOCK/ WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IN THE MONDAY-
TUESDAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THE GUSTINESS SHOULD LARGELY ABATE
BY TUESDAY. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AOB AVERAGE ON MONDAY, AND
AOA AVERAGE THEREAFTER.
DETAILS...
MONDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ALOFT AS THE REGION
WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL BETWEEN SYSTEMS, AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CONFLUENT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET,
MOVING OFFSHORE JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS RESULTS IN SUBSIDENCE
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE COLUMN, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
OF I-95, WHERE THE MARITIME INFLUENCE DECREASES. THUS, EXPECT
A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHERE
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED IN
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT, THE AREA
WILL LARGELY BE WITHIN THE CONFLUENT REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THEREFORE, MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE PRECIP, EVEN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT/AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT TIMING THIS FEATURE LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, GIVEN THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW,
THIS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS FOR 12Z TAFS, NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 06Z
VERSION.
THIS MORNING...A HIGHER MVFR CIG IS PREDICTED TO OCCUR GENERALLY
BETWEEN 2K AND 3K. EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KMIV AND KACY. SOME
DRIZZLE ON 88D BEING DETECTED AND WE CARRIED IT WITH A MVFR
RESTRICTION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KACY AND KMIV. NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT OTHER TERMINALS. DRIZZLE ALSO LIKELY AT LOWER DELMARVA
AIRPORTS EARLY. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BETWEEN 20 AND
30 KNOTS INLAND AIRPORTS/TERMINALS.
THIS AFTERNOON...FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS CIGS BECOMING VFR.
ELSEWHERE WE ARE BRINGING THE VFR CIG CLOSE TO KPHL BY THE END
OF THE AFTERNOON. MAINTAINING A HIGHER MVFR CIG FOR THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED SIMILAR TO THE MORNING.
SUNDAY EVENING...CIGS REMAINING MVFR AT KMIV AND KACY WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KTS.
ELSEWHERE WE WILL FORECAST A VFR CIG, BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FAR
NORTHWEST. WE KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BUT
DROP THE GUSTS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST OCCURRING IS
FOR NORTHERN AIRPORTS.
SUNDAY OVERNIGHT...WE ARE LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
AGAIN. ASIDE FROM KACY, NO GUSTS WERE CARRIED. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
AT KACY AND KMIV OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS AT ACY AND MIV
COULD GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WE HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND
HAVE REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WIND GUSTS HAVE
FALLEN BELOW 34 KNOTS AND WITH A WEAKENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION, EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN CLOSER TO 25 KNOTS.
THE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TREND OF DECREASING THE WINDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
EXCLUDING DELAWARE BAY THRU 12Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE FROM GALE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
TIME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA FIVE FEET
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NO CHANGE IN THE COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES. ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE
AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, THE ETSS AND DBOFS GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN RUNNING HALF A FOOT TO FOOT TOO HIGH. THUS APPLYING THE
SAME CORRECTION FACTOR, THIS WOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
WITH TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND POSSIBLY NONE AT ALL WITH THIS
MORNING`S.
WE ARE FINDING A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN CHESAPEAKE BAY WHERE CBOFS
GUIDANCE VERIFIED HALF A FOOT TOO HIGH WITH THE CONCLUDED HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. HERE THE ETSS GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING SMALLER ERRORS AND WOULD
TAKE CAMBRIDGE TO MINOR, BUT NOT OUR THRESHOLD FOR ISSUING ADVISORIES
WITH THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
ON THE OCEAN FRONT, WE WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS UP
THROUGH THE HIGHER AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE BACK
BAYS WHICH HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME DRAINING. THE SUBSEQUENT OVERNIGHT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS ASTRONOMICALLY APPROXIMATELY HALF A FOOT LOWER.
THIS MAY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, BUT DONT WANT
A STEP DOWN DOUBLE HEADLINE FOR NOW.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
633 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL EXTEND SOUTH OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
MONDAY, KEEPING A STATIONARY FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE, THE
FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES IT CLOSE TO BERMUDA,
AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY, MOVING NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE, FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THRU OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND
INCLUDES A STRONGER, BROADER BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE
THERMAL`S WERE SPLIT BETWEEN THE NAM AT 850MB AND GFS AT 925MB.
THE RUNNING THEME CONTINUES WITH THE DP/DT BEING A SLOWER EVOLUTION
OF THE OVERALL PATTERN.
WE WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING.
WINDS ARE VERY SLOWLY DECREASING, BUT WE ARE STILL GETTING SOME
GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S (MPH). USED LATEST NAM`S 925MB WINDS AS
A TIMING BASIS. ITS TREND IS STILL SLOWLY DOWNWARD. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY, WE SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA TODAY. CONFIDENCE
INCREASES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
OTHERWISE, MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWS THE
MESOSCALE HRRR AND HI RES ARW THE CLOSEST AS THEY ARE MATCHING THE
ONGOING DRIZZLE OBS THE BEST. ITS MENTION IS MAINLY FROM THE I95
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WE HAVE MADE THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
DRY BEFORE STARTING TO BRING BACK CHANCES LATE AS ANOTHER SLUG OF
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE OUR WAY. ANY
CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE POCONOS.
WE WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE DAY PEAKS THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
RELAXATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, BETTER MIXING
THOUGH KEEPS GUSTS RELATIVELY THE SAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WE BRING BACK CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
IN INTERIOR AREAS, WE SHOULD FINALLY START SEEING A RELAXATION IN
THE WINDS, ALTHOUGH GUSTINESS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE FETCH FOR MOST OF OUR CWA IS
STILL FROM THE OCEAN. SO OTHER THAN THE POCONOS, NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT
MUCH CLEARING IN OUR CWA. WE WENT WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE,
CLOUDIER GUIDANCE AND OUR MIN TEMPS ARE TOWARD THE HIGHER RANGE OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
A PERIOD OF TRANSITION IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AS REX BLOCK OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THIS OCCURS, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY. A
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US /THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BLOCK/ WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IN THE MONDAY-
TUESDAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THE GUSTINESS SHOULD LARGELY ABATE
BY TUESDAY. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AOB AVERAGE ON MONDAY, AND
AOA AVERAGE THEREAFTER.
DETAILS...
MONDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ALOFT AS THE REGION
WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL BETWEEN SYSTEMS, AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CONFLUENT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET,
MOVING OFFSHORE JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS RESULTS IN SUBSIDENCE
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE COLUMN, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
OF I-95, WHERE THE MARITIME INFLUENCE DECREASES. THUS, EXPECT
A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHERE
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED IN
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT, THE AREA
WILL LARGELY BE WITHIN THE CONFLUENT REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THEREFORE, MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE PRECIP, EVEN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT/AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT TIMING THIS FEATURE LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, GIVEN THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW,
THIS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS FOR 12Z TAFS, NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 06Z
VERSION.
THIS MORNING...A HIGHER MVFR CIG IS PREDICTED TO OCCUR GENERALLY
BETWEEN 2K AND 3K. EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KMIV AND KACY. SOME
DRIZZLE ON 88D BEING DETECTED AND WE CARRIED IT WITH A MVFR
RESTRICTION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KACY AND KMIV. NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT OTHER TERMINALS. DRIZZLE ALSO LIKELY AT LOWER DELMARVA
AIRPORTS EARLY. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BETWEEN 20 AND
30 KNOTS INLAND AIRPORTS/TERMINALS.
THIS AFTERNOON...FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS CIGS BECOMING VFR.
ELSEWHERE WE ARE BRINGING THE VFR CIG CLOSE TO KPHL BY THE END
OF THE AFTERNOON. MAINTAINING A HIGHER MVFR CIG FOR THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED SIMILAR TO THE MORNING.
SUNDAY EVENING...CIGS REMAINING MVFR AT KMIV AND KACY WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KTS.
ELSEWHERE WE WILL FORECAST A VFR CIG, BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FAR
NORTHWEST. WE KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BUT
DROP THE GUSTS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST OCCURRING IS
FOR NORTHERN AIRPORTS.
SUNDAY OVERNIGHT...WE ARE LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
AGAIN. ASIDE FROM KACY, NO GUSTS WERE CARRIED. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
AT KACY AND KMIV OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS AT ACY AND MIV
COULD GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TREND OF DECREASING THE WINDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. WE KEPT THE SAME
EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AS THEY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT FIRST.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
EXCLUDING DELAWARE BAY THRU 12Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE FROM GALE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
TIME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA FIVE FEET
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NO CHANGE IN THE COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES. ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE
AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, THE ETSS AND DBOFS GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN RUNNING HALF A FOOT TO FOOT TOO HIGH. THUS APPLYING THE
SAME CORRECTION FACTOR, THIS WOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
WITH TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND POSSIBLY NONE AT ALL WITH THIS
MORNING`S.
WE ARE FINDING A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN CHESAPEAKE BAY WHERE CBOFS
GUIDANCE VERIFIED HALF A FOOT TOO HIGH WITH THE CONCLUDED HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. HERE THE ETSS GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING SMALLER ERRORS AND WOULD
TAKE CAMBRIDGE TO MINOR, BUT NOT OUR THRESHOLD FOR ISSUING ADVISORIES
WITH THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
ON THE OCEAN FRONT, WE WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS UP
THROUGH THE HIGHER AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE BACK
BAYS WHICH HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME DRAINING. THE SUBSEQUENT OVERNIGHT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS ASTRONOMICALLY APPROXIMATELY HALF A FOOT LOWER.
THIS MAY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, BUT DONT WANT
A STEP DOWN DOUBLE HEADLINE FOR NOW.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GIGI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL EXTEND SOUTH OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
MONDAY, KEEPING A STATIONARY FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE, THE
FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES IT CLOSE TO BERMUDA,
AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY, MOVING NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE, FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THRU OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND
INCLUDES A STRONGER, BROADER BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE
THERMAL`S WERE SPLIT BETWEEN THE NAM AT 850MB AND GFS AT 925MB.
THE RUNNING THEME CONTINUES WITH THE DP/DT BEING A SLOWER EVOLUTION
OF THE OVERALL PATTERN.
WE WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING.
WINDS ARE VERY SLOWLY DECREASING, BUT WE ARE STILL GETTING SOME
GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S (MPH). USED LATEST NAM`S 925MB WINDS AS
A TIMING BASIS. ITS TREND IS STILL SLOWLY DOWNWARD. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY, WE SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA TODAY. CONFIDENCE
INCREASES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
OTHERWISE, MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWS THE
MESOSCALE HRRR AND HI RES ARW THE CLOSEST AS THEY ARE MATCHING THE
ONGOING DRIZZLE OBS THE BEST. ITS MENTION IS MAINLY FROM THE I95
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WE HAVE MADE THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
DRY BEFORE STARTING TO BRING BACK CHANCES LATE AS ANOTHER SLUG OF
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE OUR WAY. ANY
CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE POCONOS.
WE WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE DAY PEAKS THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
RELAXATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, BETTER MIXING
THOUGH KEEPS GUSTS RELATIVELY THE SAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WE BRING BACK CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
IN INTERIOR AREAS, WE SHOULD FINALLY START SEEING A RELAXATION IN
THE WINDS, ALTHOUGH GUSTINESS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE FETCH FOR MOST OF OUR CWA IS
STILL FROM THE OCEAN. SO OTHER THAN THE POCONOS, NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT
MUCH CLEARING IN OUR CWA. WE WENT WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE,
CLOUDIER GUIDANCE AND OUR MIN TEMPS ARE TOWARD THE HIGHER RANGE OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
A PERIOD OF TRANSITION IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AS REX BLOCK OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THIS OCCURS, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY. A
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US /THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BLOCK/ WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IN THE MONDAY-
TUESDAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THE GUSTINESS SHOULD LARGELY ABATE
BY TUESDAY. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AOB AVERAGE ON MONDAY, AND
AOA AVERAGE THEREAFTER.
DETAILS...
MONDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ALOFT AS THE REGION
WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL BETWEEN SYSTEMS, AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CONFLUENT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET,
MOVING OFFSHORE JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS RESULTS IN SUBSIDENCE
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE COLUMN, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
OF I-95, WHERE THE MARITIME INFLUENCE DECREASES. THUS, EXPECT
A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHERE
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED IN
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT, THE AREA
WILL LARGELY BE WITHIN THE CONFLUENT REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THEREFORE, MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE PRECIP, EVEN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT/AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT TIMING THIS FEATURE LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, GIVEN THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW,
THIS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
06Z TAFS CONTINUE WINDY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
REST OF OVERNIGHT...CIGS MAINLY BETWEEN 1000-2000FT, SOME IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. WHILE SOME NON VSBY RESTRICTING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS, WE JUST CARRIED IT AT KACY
AND KMIV WITHE SOME UP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.
THIS MORNING...A HIGHER MVFR CIG IS PREDICTED WITH NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD MIX A BIT MORE AND WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS INLAND AIRPORTS/TERMINALS.
THIS AFTERNOON...FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS CIGS BECOMING VFR.
ELSEWHERE WE ARE MAINTAINING A HIGHER MVFR CIG. WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED SIMILAR TO THE MORNING.
SUNDAY EVENING...CIGS REMAINING MVFR AT KMIV AND KACY WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KTS.
ELSEWHERE WE WILL FORECAST A VFR CIG, BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FAR
NORTHWEST. WE KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BUT
DROP THE GUSTS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST OCCURRING IS
FOR NORTHERN AIRPORTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
AT KACY AND KMIV OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS AT ACY AND MIV
COULD GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TREND OF DECREASING THE WINDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. WE KEPT THE SAME
EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AS THEY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT FIRST.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
EXCLUDING DELAWARE BAY THRU 12Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE FROM GALE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
TIME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA FIVE FEET
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
820 PM UPDATE TO CANCEL THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DELAWARE
RIVER AND THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY (NEW CASTLE COUNTY, DE AND SALEM
COUNTY, NJ) AND REPLACE IT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THRU
SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH THE ETSS AND DBOFS TIDAL PREDICTION CAME IN
BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND ONE FOOT TOO HIGH WITH THIS PAST HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING. THIS GUIDANCE HAS ALSO VERIFIED TOO
HIGH WITH PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE ETSS AND OFS GUIDANCE MAY HAVE PARTIALLY TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
THE BIAS AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER FOR THE EARLY MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY BUT LIKELY ARE STILL TOO
HIGH. THE OFS PREDICTION KEEPS REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA BELOW
MODERATE STAGE FOR BOTH HIGH TIDES TOMORROW WHILE THE ETSS
PREDICTION IS RIGHT AT MODERATE. THE IN-HOUSE REGRESSION GUIDANCE,
WHICH HAS VERIFIED THE BEST THUS FAR, BARELY GETS REEDY POINT TO
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY.
THE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE.
THE WORST OF THE FLOODING (WIDESPREAD MODERATE) WILL CONTINUE OVER
CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ AND EASTERN DE, PARTICULARLY IN THE BACK BAYS AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS NOT ALLOWED THE WATER THAT MADE IT IN THERE
DURING PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES TO DRAIN. WE`LL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IN SOME OF
THESE VULNERABLE BACK BAYS.
ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE FROM ATLANTIC COUNTY NORTHWARD, COASTAL
FLOODING ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE UPPER END OF MINOR. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UP AS ONCE AGAIN THE BACK BAYS
WILL BE AT RISK TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY. WATER LEVELS DID NOT INCREASE AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THE NEWEST TIDAL GUIDANCE, WHICH TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE
PREVIOUS BIAS, NO LONGER FORECAST ADVISORY LEVEL FLOODING THRU THE
WEEKEND.
THE THREAT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS TO END BY MONDAY,
THOUGH MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
537 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY, KEEPING A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN
TAKES IT CLOSE TO BERMUDA, AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AND
MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THRU OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE PASS BY
TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND
INCLUDES A STRONGER, BROADER BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE
THERMAL`S WERE SPLIT BETWEEN THE NAM AT 850MB AND GFS AT 925MB.
THE RUNNING THEME CONTINUES WITH THE DP/DT BEING A SLOWER EVOLUTION
OF THE OVERALL PATTERN.
WE WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING.
WINDS ARE VERY SLOWLY DECREASING, BUT WE ARE STILL GETTING SOME
GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S (MPH). USED LATEST NAM`S 925MB WINDS AS
A TIMING BASIS. ITS TREND IS STILL SLOWLY DOWNWARD. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY, WE SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA TODAY. CONFIDENCE
INCREASES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
OTHERWISE, MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWS THE
MESOSCALE HRRR AND HI RES ARW THE CLOSEST AS THEY ARE MATCHING THE
ONGOING DRIZZLE OBS THE BEST. ITS MENTION IS MAINLY FROM THE I95
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WE HAVE MADE THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
DRY BEFORE STARTING TO BRING BACK CHANCES LATE AS ANOTHER SLUG OF
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE OUR WAY. ANY
CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE POCONOS.
WE WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE DAY PEAKS THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
RELAXATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, BETTER MIXING
THOUGH KEEPS GUSTS RELATIVELY THE SAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WE BRING BACK CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
IN INTERIOR AREAS, WE SHOULD FINALLY START SEEING A RELAXATION IN
THE WINDS, ALTHOUGH GUSTINESS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE FETCH FOR MOST OF OUR CWA IS
STILL FROM THE OCEAN. SO OTHER THAN THE POCONOS, NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT
MUCH CLEARING IN OUR CWA. WE WENT WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE,
CLOUDIER GUIDANCE AND OUR MIN TEMPS ARE TOWARD THE HIGHER RANGE OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
A PERIOD OF TRANSITION IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AS REX BLOCK OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THIS OCCURS, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY. A
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US /THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BLOCK/ WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IN THE MONDAY-
TUESDAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THE GUSTINESS SHOULD LARGELY ABATE
BY TUESDAY. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AOB AVERAGE ON MONDAY, AND
AOA AVERAGE THEREAFTER.
DETAILS...
MONDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ALOFT AS THE REGION
WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL BETWEEN SYSTEMS, AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CONFLUENT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET,
MOVING OFFSHORE JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS RESULTS IN SUBSIDENCE
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE COLUMN, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
OF I-95, WHERE THE MARITIME INFLUENCE DECREASES. THUS, EXPECT
A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHERE
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED IN
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT, THE AREA
WILL LARGELY BE WITHIN THE CONFLUENT REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THEREFORE, MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE PRECIP, EVEN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT/AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT TIMING THIS FEATURE LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, GIVEN THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW,
THIS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
06Z TAFS CONTINUE WINDY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
REST OF OVERNIGHT...CIGS MAINLY BETWEEN 1000-2000FT, SOME IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. WHILE SOME NON VSBY RESTRICTING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS, WE JUST CARRIED IT AT KACY
AND KMIV WITHE SOME UP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.
THIS MORNING...A HIGHER MVFR CIG IS PREDICTED WITH NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD MIX A BIT MORE AND WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS INLAND AIRPORTS/TERMINALS.
THIS AFTERNOON...FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS CIGS BECOMING VFR.
ELSEWHERE WE ARE MAINTAINING A HIGHER MVFR CIG. WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED SIMILAR TO THE MORNING.
SUNDAY EVENING...CIGS REMAINING MVFR AT KMIV AND KACY WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KTS.
ELSEWHERE WE WILL FORECAST A VFR CIG, BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FAR
NORTHWEST. WE KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BUT
DROP THE GUSTS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST OCCURRING IS
FOR NORTHERN AIRPORTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
AT KACY AND KMIV OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS AT ACY AND MIV
COULD GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TREND OF DECREASING THE WINDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. WE KEPT THE SAME
EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AS THEY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT FIRST.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
EXCLUDING DELAWARE BAY THRU 12Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE FROM GALE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
TIME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA FIVE FEET
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
820 PM UPDATE TO CANCEL THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DELAWARE
RIVER AND THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY (NEW CASTLE COUNTY, DE AND SALEM
COUNTY, NJ) AND REPLACE IT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THRU
SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH THE ETSS AND DBOFS TIDAL PREDICTION CAME IN
BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND ONE FOOT TOO HIGH WITH THIS PAST HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING. THIS GUIDANCE HAS ALSO VERIFIED TOO
HIGH WITH PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE ETSS AND OFS GUIDANCE MAY HAVE PARTIALLY TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
THE BIAS AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER FOR THE EARLY MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY BUT LIKELY ARE STILL TOO
HIGH. THE OFS PREDICTION KEEPS REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA BELOW
MODERATE STAGE FOR BOTH HIGH TIDES TOMORROW WHILE THE ETSS
PREDICTION IS RIGHT AT MODERATE. THE IN-HOUSE REGRESSION GUIDANCE,
WHICH HAS VERIFIED THE BEST THUS FAR, BARELY GETS REEDY POINT TO
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY.
THE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE.
THE WORST OF THE FLOODING (WIDESPREAD MODERATE) WILL CONTINUE OVER
CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ AND EASTERN DE, PARTICULARLY IN THE BACK BAYS AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS NOT ALLOWED THE WATER THAT MADE IT IN THERE
DURING PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES TO DRAIN. WE`LL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IN SOME OF
THESE VULNERABLE BACK BAYS.
ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE FROM ATLANTIC COUNTY NORTHWARD, COASTAL
FLOODING ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE UPPER END OF MINOR. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UP AS ONCE AGAIN THE BACK BAYS
WILL BE AT RISK TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY. WATER LEVELS DID NOT INCREASE AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THE NEWEST TIDAL GUIDANCE, WHICH TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE
PREVIOUS BIAS, NO LONGER FORECAST ADVISORY LEVEL FLOODING THRU THE
WEEKEND.
THE THREAT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS TO END BY MONDAY,
THOUGH MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
445 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY, KEEPING A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN
TAKES IT CLOSE TO BERMUDA, AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AND
MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THRU OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE PASS BY
TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND
INCLUDES A STRONGER, BROADER BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE
THERMAL`S WERE SPLIT BETWEEN THE NAM AT 850MB AND GFS AT 925MB.
THE RUNNING THEME CONTINUES WITH THE DP/DT BEING A SLOWER EVOLUTION
OF THE OVERALL PATTERN.
WE WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING. WINDS
ARE VERY SLOWLY DECREASING AND WHILE IT WILL REMAIN WINDY, WE SHOULD
STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA TODAY. CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
OTHERWISE, MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWS THE
MESOSCALE HRRR AND HI RES ARW THE CLOSEST AS THEY ARE MATCHING THE
ONGOING DRIZZLE OBS THE CLOSEST. ITS MENTION IS MAINLY FROM THE
I95 CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WE HAVE MADE THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON DRY BEFORE STARTING TO BRING BACK CHANCES LATE AS ANOTHER
SLUG OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE OUR WAY. ANY
CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE POCONOS. WE
WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE DAY PEAKS THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
RELAXATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, BETTER MIXING
THOUGH KEEPS GUSTS RELATIVELY THE SAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WE BRING BACK CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
IN INTERIOR AREAS, WE SHOULD FINALLY START SEEING A RELAXATION IN
THE WINDS, ALTHOUGH GUSTINESS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE FETCH FOR MOST OF OUR CWA IS
STILL FROM THE OCEAN. SO OTHER THAN THE POCONOS, NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT
MUCH CLEARING IN OUR CWA. WE WENT WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE,
CLOUDIER GUIDANCE AND OUR MIN TEMPS ARE TOWARD THE HIGHER RANGE OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
A PERIOD OF TRANSITION IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AS REX BLOCK OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THIS OCCURS, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY. A
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US /THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BLOCK/ WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IN THE MONDAY-
TUESDAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THE GUSTINESS SHOULD LARGELY ABATE
BY TUESDAY. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AOB AVERAGE ON MONDAY, AND
AOA AVERAGE THEREAFTER.
DETAILS...
MONDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ALOFT AS THE REGION
WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL BETWEEN SYSTEMS, AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CONFLUENT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET,
MOVING OFFSHORE JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS RESULTS IN SUBSIDENCE
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE COLUMN, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
OF I-95, WHERE THE MARITIME INFLUENCE DECREASES. THUS, EXPECT
A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHERE
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED IN
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT, THE AREA
WILL LARGELY BE WITHIN THE CONFLUENT REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THEREFORE, MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE PRECIP, EVEN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT/AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT TIMING THIS FEATURE LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, GIVEN THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW,
THIS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
06Z TAFS CONTINUE WINDY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
REST OF OVERNIGHT...CIGS MAINLY BETWEEN 1000-2000FT, SOME IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. WHILE SOME NON VSBY RESTRICTING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS, WE JUST CARRIED IT AT KACY
AND KMIV WITHE SOME UP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.
THIS MORNING...A HIGHER MVFR CIG IS PREDICTED WITH NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD MIX A BIT MORE AND WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS INLAND AIRPORTS/TERMINALS.
THIS AFTERNOON...FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS CIGS BECOMING VFR.
ELSEWHERE WE ARE MAINTAINING A HIGHER MVFR CIG. WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED SIMILAR TO THE MORNING.
SUNDAY EVENING...CIGS REMAINING MVFR AT KMIV AND KACY WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KTS.
ELSEWHERE WE WILL FORECAST A VFR CIG, BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FAR
NORTHWEST. WE KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BUT
DROP THE GUSTS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST OCCURRING IS
FOR NORTHERN AIRPORTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
AT KACY AND KMIV OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS AT ACY AND MIV
COULD GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TREND OF DECREASING THE WINDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. WE KEPT THE SAME
EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AS THEY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT FIRST.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
EXCLUDING DELAWARE BAY THRU 12Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE FROM GALE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
TIME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA FIVE FEET
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
820 PM UPDATE TO CANCEL THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DELAWARE
RIVER AND THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY (NEW CASTLE COUNTY, DE AND SALEM
COUNTY, NJ) AND REPLACE IT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THRU
SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH THE ETSS AND DBOFS TIDAL PREDICTION CAME IN
BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND ONE FOOT TOO HIGH WITH THIS PAST HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING. THIS GUIDANCE HAS ALSO VERIFIED TOO
HIGH WITH PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE ETSS AND OFS GUIDANCE MAY HAVE PARTIALLY TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
THE BIAS AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER FOR THE EARLY MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY BUT LIKELY ARE STILL TOO
HIGH. THE OFS PREDICTION KEEPS REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA BELOW
MODERATE STAGE FOR BOTH HIGH TIDES TOMORROW WHILE THE ETSS
PREDICTION IS RIGHT AT MODERATE. THE IN-HOUSE REGRESSION GUIDANCE,
WHICH HAS VERIFIED THE BEST THUS FAR, BARELY GETS REEDY POINT TO
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY.
THE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE.
THE WORST OF THE FLOODING (WIDESPREAD MODERATE) WILL CONTINUE OVER
CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ AND EASTERN DE, PARTICULARLY IN THE BACK BAYS AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS NOT ALLOWED THE WATER THAT MADE IT IN THERE
DURING PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES TO DRAIN. WE`LL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IN SOME OF
THESE VULNERABLE BACK BAYS.
ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE FROM ATLANTIC COUNTY NORTHWARD, COASTAL
FLOODING ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE UPPER END OF MINOR. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UP AS ONCE AGAIN THE BACK BAYS
WILL BE AT RISK TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY. WATER LEVELS DID NOT INCREASE AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THE NEWEST TIDAL GUIDANCE, WHICH TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE
PREVIOUS BIAS, NO LONGER FORECAST ADVISORY LEVEL FLOODING THRU THE
WEEKEND.
THE THREAT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS TO END BY MONDAY,
THOUGH MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
419 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY, KEEPING A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN
TAKES IT CLOSE TO BERMUDA, AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AND
MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THRU OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE PASS BY
TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND
INCLUDES A STRONGER, BROADER BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE
THERMAL`S WERE SPLIT BETWEEN THE NAM AT 850MB AND GFS AT 925MB.
THE RUNNING THEME CONTINUES WITH THE DP/DT BEING A SLOWER EVOLUTION
OF THE OVERALL PATTERN.
WE WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING. WINDS
ARE VERY SLOWLY DECREASING AND WHILE IT WILL REMAIN WINDY, WE SHOULD
STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA TODAY. CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
OTHERWISE, MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWS THE
MESOSCALE HRRR AND HI RES ARW THE CLOSEST AS THEY ARE MATCHING THE
ONGOING DRIZZLE OBS THE CLOSEST. ITS MENTION IS MAINLY FROM THE
I95 CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WE HAVE MADE THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON DRY BEFORE STARTING TO BRING BACK CHANCES LATE AS ANOTHER
SLUG OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE OUR WAY. ANY
CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE POCONOS. WE
WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE DAY PEAKS THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
RELAXATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, BETTER MIXING
THOUGH KEEPS GUSTS RELATIVELY THE SAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WE BRING BACK CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
IN INTERIOR AREAS, WE SHOULD FINALLY START SEEING A RELAXATION IN
THE WINDS, ALTHOUGH GUSTINESS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE FETCH FOR MOST OF OUR CWA IS
STILL FROM THE OCEAN. SO OTHER THAN THE POCONOS, NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT
MUCH CLEARING IN OUR CWA. WE WENT WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE,
CLOUDIER GUIDANCE AND OUR MIN TEMPS ARE TOWARD THE HIGHER RANGE OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
A PERIOD OF TRANSITION IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AS REX BLOCK OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THIS OCCURS, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY. A
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US /THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BLOCK WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IN THE MONDAY-
TUESDAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THE GUSTINESS SHOULD LARGELY ABATE
BY TUESDAY. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AOB AVERAGE ON MONDAY, AND
AOA AVERAGE THEREAFTER.
DETAILS...
MONDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ALOFT AS THE REGION
WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL BETWEEN SYSTEMS, AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CONFLUENT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL MOVING
OFFSHORE JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE,
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE COLUMN, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
OF I-95, WHERE THE MARITIME INFLUENCE DECREASES. THUS, EXPECT
A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST. ALONG
THE COAST, NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED IN
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT, THE AREA
WILL LARGELY BE WITHIN THE CONFLUENT REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THEREFORE, MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE PRECIP, EVEN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT/AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT TO THIS POINT WITH TIMING THIS FEATURE
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANGE,
THIS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
06Z TAFS CONTINUE WINDY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
REST OF OVERNIGHT...CIGS MAINLY BETWEEN 1000-2000FT, SOME IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. WHILE SOME NON VSBY RESTRICTING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS, WE JUST CARRIED IT AT KACY
AND KMIV WITHE SOME UP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.
THIS MORNING...A HIGHER MVFR CIG IS PREDICTED WITH NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD MIX A BIT MORE AND WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS INLAND AIRPORTS/TERMINALS.
THIS AFTERNOON...FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS CIGS BECOMING VFR.
ELSEWHERE WE ARE MAINTAINING A HIGHER MVFR CIG. WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED SIMILAR TO THE MORNING.
SUNDAY EVENING...CIGS REMAINING MVFR AT KMIV AND KACY WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KTS.
ELSEWHERE WE WILL FORECAST A VFR CIG, BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FAR
NORTHWEST. WE KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BUT
DROP THE GUSTS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST OCCURRING IS
FOR NORTHERN AIRPORTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
AT KACY AND KMIV OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS AT ACY AND MIV
COULD GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TREND OF DECREASING THE WINDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. WE KEPT THE SAME
EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AS THEY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT FIRST.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS,
EXCLUDING DELAWARE BAY THRU 12Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE FROM GALE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
TIME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA FIVE FEET
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
820 PM UPDATE TO CANCEL THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DELAWARE
RIVER AND THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY (NEW CASTLE COUNTY, DE AND SALEM
COUNTY, NJ) AND REPLACE IT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THRU
SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH THE ETSS AND DBOFS TIDAL PREDICTION CAME IN
BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND ONE FOOT TOO HIGH WITH THIS PAST HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING. THIS GUIDANCE HAS ALSO VERIFIED TOO
HIGH WITH PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE ETSS AND OFS GUIDANCE MAY HAVE PARTIALLY TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
THE BIAS AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER FOR THE EARLY MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY BUT LIKELY ARE STILL TOO
HIGH. THE OFS PREDICTION KEEPS REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA BELOW
MODERATE STAGE FOR BOTH HIGH TIDES TOMORROW WHILE THE ETSS
PREDICTION IS RIGHT AT MODERATE. THE IN-HOUSE REGRESSION GUIDANCE,
WHICH HAS VERIFIED THE BEST THUS FAR, BARELY GETS REEDY POINT TO
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY.
THE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE.
THE WORST OF THE FLOODING (WIDESPREAD MODERATE) WILL CONTINUE OVER
CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ AND EASTERN DE, PARTICULARLY IN THE BACK BAYS AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS NOT ALLOWED THE WATER THAT MADE IT IN THERE
DURING PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES TO DRAIN. WE`LL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IN SOME OF
THESE VULNERABLE BACK BAYS.
ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE FROM ATLANTIC COUNTY NORTHWARD, COASTAL
FLOODING ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE UPPER END OF MINOR. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UP AS ONCE AGAIN THE BACK BAYS
WILL BE AT RISK TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY. WATER LEVELS DID NOT INCREASE AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THE NEWEST TIDAL GUIDANCE, WHICH TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE
PREVIOUS BIAS, NO LONGER FORECAST ADVISORY LEVEL FLOODING THRU THE
WEEKEND.
THE THREAT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS TO END BY MONDAY,
THOUGH MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
636 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WITH VERY HIGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. EXPECT DRYING
TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE 22Z THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED IN THE CSRA.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGEST MUCH LOWER HOURLY RAIN RATES OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO DROP WATCH FOR THE AUGUSTA METRO
AREA AND REST OF THE CSRA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN FL WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW PUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL SC COAST THROUGH THE MIDLANDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS WITH
FLOODING OCCURRING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AT 20Z...THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...ALTHOUGH HOURLY RAIN RATES ARE A LITTLE LOWER.
RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWEST AND MAINLY AFFECT THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING RAINS MAY BE DIMINISHED IN THE CSRA...MAY DROP WATCH
EARLY THERE...BUT FOR NOW LETS KEEP OUR GUARD UP AS GFS STILL
SUGGESTS SOME RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AUGUSTA AREA.
SITUATION WHICH CONTINUES TO UNFOLD HAS REACHED CRITICAL
LEVELS...SCEMD HAS ISSUED A CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE URGING
EVERYONE TO REMAIN AT A SAFE AND DRY LOCATION AND ONLY LEAVE IF
TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.
OTHER CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. COMBINED WITH THE
SATURATED SOILS THIS WILL RESULT IN TREES BEING BLOWN
DOWN...INCLUDING ACROSS ROADWAYS AND INTO POWERLINES. NUMEROUS
TREES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED BLOWN DOWN DUE TO THE SATURATED
SOILS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAIN
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL SEE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 3 MAINLY IN THE EAST. LESS QPF TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BUT THE MODELS INDICATE LESS FORCING AND QPF. THE MODELS DEPICT
THE H5 LOW CONTOURS BECOME CONFLUENT WITH THE H85 JET BACKING
FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHING FROM 40 TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS
MONDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHEAST PART. RUNOFF FROM THE EXTREME RAIN EVENT SHOULD STILL BE
AN ISSUE AND SOME AREA RIVERS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIVER FLOODING SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH A
SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
EAST-WEST AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXTENDED FROM MYR TO CAE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND REORIENT TO MORE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AS
HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO IFR RANGE
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS IN RAINFALL...POSSIBLE LOWER AT TIMES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS VSBYS TO
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
821 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Have made some minor adjustments to cloudiness, otherwise current
package looks on-track.
Low clouds have made it as far southwest as KPNT at 01z and
should continue to overspread area under influence of northeast
flow. Fog development still looks like a good bet, particularly
along I-74 from east of Peoria through Danville.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Stratus deck held firm a good part of the morning, but started to
rapidly erode toward midday and most of it is now gone from the
forecast area as of 2 pm. Still getting some cirrus streaming up
from the southwest, but most areas at least are now partly sunny.
This has helped temperatures recover nicely and much of the CWA has
reached into the 70s. A few 80 degree readings have been observed in
the far southeast, where skies have been mostly sunny the entire
time.
High pressure ridge from Wisconsin to Oklahoma will move little
overnight, keeping our northeast flow continuing. 925 mb RAP
humidity plot showing some southern building of the lower clouds
once again overnight, and have indicated mostly cloudy conditions
spreading over most of the forecast area overnight. It has also been
persistent over the last few hours on a widespread dense fog
scenario expanding southwest to cover the southeast half of the
forecast area. The 4km NAM-nest shows this a bit further northwest,
mainly from about I-55 eastward, and the tail end of the HRRR is
more patchy in nature, but in that same general region. At the
moment, will only mention patchy fog in the forecast and continue to
watch how the stratus evolves this evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
High pressure ridge will dominate the weather across central IL
through mid week. Though there could be some cloud cover, partly to
mostly sunny skies should be the rule, with temps warming to above
normal, mid to upper 70s...into the lower 80s, for Wed and Thur.
Then models are in very good agreement with timing and intensity of
a cold front moving through the area Thursday night. Pcpn will begin
just ahead of the front Thursday morning northwest of the IL river
and then spread eastward through the afternoon and into the evening
for the southeast. The front should move through the area quickly
Thursday night with pcpn likely over the northeastern portion of the
CWA during the night. The pcpn should be exiting the area from late
Thursday night through early Friday morning. Lingering pcpn will in
southeastern IL Friday morning, with all pcpn gone before the
afternoon. This front will bring cooler temps in for Friday and
Saturday, but with another high pressure ridge moving into the area,
temps will again warm to above normal levels for Sun and Mon. Dry
weather is also expected Friday afternoon through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Surface Ridge remains to our northwest through early Tuesday
keeping flow generally northeast over the central Illinois
terminals which will keep us under the influence of Lake
Michigan. Although clearing spread over the area today, MVFR cigs
are not too far away and should spread back into the area
overnight. KVYS has been back and forth this afternoon with KIKK
socked in.
Short-Range models (RAP, NAM, HRRR) are consistent in pushing low
clouds and vsbys into most of the area starting with KCMI and
spreading southwest. HRRR is the least agressive and keeps
terminals VFR until after 09z. Given the proximity of the deck
will generally follow the more pessimistic RAP which brings MVFR
counditions into KCMI by around 04z and into all sites by 09z.
Best probabilities of IFR conditions would be at KCMI and KBMI.
Will keep conditions MVFR elsewhere with this package, but
potential for lower cigs/vsbys will certianly need to closely
monitored.
With weak flow, conditions will only slowly improve on Tuesday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
619 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Stratus deck held firm a good part of the morning, but started to
rapidly erode toward midday and most of it is now gone from the
forecast area as of 2 pm. Still getting some cirrus streaming up
from the southwest, but most areas at least are now partly sunny.
This has helped temperatures recover nicely and much of the CWA has
reached into the 70s. A few 80 degree readings have been observed in
the far southeast, where skies have been mostly sunny the entire
time.
High pressure ridge from Wisconsin to Oklahoma will move little
overnight, keeping our northeast flow continuing. 925 mb RAP
humidity plot showing some southern building of the lower clouds
once again overnight, and have indicated mostly cloudy conditions
spreading over most of the forecast area overnight. It has also been
persistent over the last few hours on a widespread dense fog
scenario expanding southwest to cover the southeast half of the
forecast area. The 4km NAM-nest shows this a bit further northwest,
mainly from about I-55 eastward, and the tail end of the HRRR is
more patchy in nature, but in that same general region. At the
moment, will only mention patchy fog in the forecast and continue to
watch how the stratus evolves this evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
High pressure ridge will dominate the weather across central IL
through mid week. Though there could be some cloud cover, partly to
mostly sunny skies should be the rule, with temps warming to above
normal, mid to upper 70s...into the lower 80s, for Wed and Thur.
Then models are in very good agreement with timing and intensity of
a cold front moving through the area Thursday night. Pcpn will begin
just ahead of the front Thursday morning northwest of the IL river
and then spread eastward through the afternoon and into the evening
for the southeast. The front should move through the area quickly
Thursday night with pcpn likely over the northeastern portion of the
CWA during the night. The pcpn should be exiting the area from late
Thursday night through early Friday morning. Lingering pcpn will in
southeastern IL Friday morning, with all pcpn gone before the
afternoon. This front will bring cooler temps in for Friday and
Saturday, but with another high pressure ridge moving into the area,
temps will again warm to above normal levels for Sun and Mon. Dry
weather is also expected Friday afternoon through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Surface Ridge remains to our northwest through early Tuesday
keeping flow generally northeast over the central Illinois
terminals which will keep us under the influence of Lake
Michigan. Although clearing spread over the area today, MVFR cigs
are not too far away and should spread back into the area
overnight. KVYS has been back and forth this afternoon with KIKK
socked in.
Short-Range models (RAP, NAM, HRRR) are consistent in pushing low
clouds and vsbys into most of the area starting with KCMI and
spreading southwest. HRRR is the least agressive and keeps
terminals VFR until after 09z. Given the proximity of the deck
will generally follow the more pessimistic RAP which brings MVFR
counditions into KCMI by around 04z and into all sites by 09z.
Best probabilities of IFR conditions would be at KCMI and KBMI.
Will keep conditions MVFR elsewhere with this package, but
potential for lower cigs/vsbys will certianly need to closely
monitored.
With weak flow, conditions will only slowly improve on Tuesday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
255 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
Upper low storm system over the southeastern this afternoon still
driving the moisture into the Midwest. Although the low and mid
level clouds persisted through the overnight, a wide swath of drying
spread through Ohio and Indiana and is slowly eroding the eastern
side of the cloud shield. Tonights forecast centers on how far
those clouds can erode before sunset and llvl moisture gets trapped
below the inversion. Clear areas to the east may end up seeing more
in the way of patchy fog and cooler temps, but a lot will hinge on
the xover temps and how far back to the E/SE the stratus redevelops
tonight. Have trended the forecast to the HRRR which has been
handling the erosion of the clouds quite well.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
Mostly clouds skies will still be lingering over most of central and
parts of eastern IL tomorrow, as the upper level low pressure area
in southeast US finally shifts out to sea. This will allow high
pressure ridge to build into the area for the first half of the
week. Winds will remain northeast but begin to decrease in speed
tomorrow and Tuesday, and then become more light and variable for
Wednesday. Dry weather is expected through the short-term period,
and with, hopefully, more sunshine than today, temps should quickly
warm into the 70s for tomorrow through Wednesday.
The next major weather system to bring pcpn to the area will be
later in the week, Thursday through Friday afternoon. The GFS and
ECMWF have come into better alignment with the timing of the front,
and it should move through the area Thursday night. So am expecting
light pcpn Thur morning in the west/northwest, with it then
spreading east during the day, and then continuing across the CWA
Thursday evening. Pcpn should begin ending from west to east late
Thursday night and then continue through Friday morning. Temps will
be above normal for Thursday, but once the front and pcpn move
through, temps will fall back into the 60s across most of the area.
This, however, will temporary as 70s should return for the end of
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
HRRR is very optimistic in clearing the conditions across Central
Illinois, considering the continued northeasterly fetch to the
winds. However, it is also handling the clearing in the southeast
properly. Inclined to follow along at least as far as the early
afternoon. Main concern is how much mixing can occur to help erode
cloud cover before sunset and the inversion traps the moisture in
the low levels. Keeping it conservative for now... with VFR this
afternoon in the east, dropping to IFR overnightfor BMI PIA and
SPI deeper into the moisture. Confidence is low and changes are
anticipated as the sun sets and with the 00z sounding.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
132 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
OCCASIONAL RAIN IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA. SOME DRIZZLE MAY LINGER
NORTH OF ROUTE 30 SUNDAY MORNING... OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FINAL DAY OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY DAWN
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
STRONG VEERING LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS ON KIWX VWP INDICATIVE OF WAA
AND ASSOCIATED UVM WHILE WATER VAPOR SHOWING SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAMING NW FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GRTLKS. COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES WAS RESULTING IN BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVE. IN ADDITION A MORE SUBSTANTIAL BAND
OF RAIN EXTENDING ALONG AN INVERTED TROF FROM ERN KY NORTH TO
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE IS FCST BY LATEST HRRR TO MOVE WEST INTO OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT. THUS... HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT. WAA OF NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT BUT HAD TO KNOCK DOWN LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON TEMPS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD THIS EVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
PERSISTENT UPGLIDE/MOISTURE ADVECTION ON I300K SURFACE LEADING TO
LOWERING CIGS E-W ACROSS CWA. CURRENTLY MARKEDLY STRONGER BAND OF
ISENT LIFT LIFTING NWWD INTO NWRN CWA AND WILL COVER WITH PRE-
FIRST PD. WITH TIME...FLOW ALONG ISENT SURFACE TO WANE OVERNIGHT
AS RIDGE CENTROID JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY FILLS AND SAGS SWD AND SC
COASTAL LOW/ASSOCD WITH SWRN GA MID LVL VORTEX WEAKENS AS CAT 4
JOAQUIN ACCELERATES NEWD...TRACKING SW-W OF BERMUDA SUNDAY PER
LATEST NHC FCST. POPS WANE TO SLIGHT CHC BY DAYBREAK. THOUGH HAVE
CONTD MENTION OF DZ POTENTIAL ACRS NORTHERN THIRD CWA SUNDAY AS
LIGHT UVM ASSOCD WITH I295K PRES GRADIENT/CROSS FLOW CURRENTLY
INTO MID OHIO VALLEY LIFTING NWWD. LIFT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN WELL
DEVELOPED DEEP SATURATED STRATUS LAYER PER PRIOR/WELL PERTURBED
BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVE/ERLY TONIGHT. NON DIURNAL WITH TEMPS NEAR
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING PER LOW LEVEL WAA THROUGH DAYBREAK. CONCERNED
THAT DEPTH/BREADTH OF STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO LIMIT
AM INSOLATION AND SQUELCHED MAX TEMPS ON SUN SLIGHTLY...THOUGH NOT
AS COOL AS MET GUID. SUSPECT ONLY FAR SERN CWA TO BREAKOUT
SUFFICIENTLY TO REACH NEAR 70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD UPSTREAM BEFORE A
BROAD UPPER TROF GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES LATE THIS WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS
AMPLIFYING TROF...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S. RAISED HIGHS A
LITTLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE
TO BETWEEN 10C AND 13C PER GFS. OTHERWISE...KEPT CHANCES FOR RAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
AGAIN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS
MOISTURE-LADEN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE
IS SHUNTED NORTHWEST. FILTERED INSOLATION AND WEAK DRY AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANSITION TO VFR BY LATER TODAY THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IS LOW...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN. PUSHED
BACK TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT A BIT BASED ON LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE BUT UPSTREAM OBS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE
AND EARLIER IMPROVEMENT STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
330 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS.
STRATUS ADVANCED WEST TO EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT HAS RETREATED BACK EASTWARD SOMEWHAT BY
AFTERNOON...SEEMING TO STOP WHEN IT REACHED DEEPER CLOUD SHIELD. WRF
ARW...RAP AND HRRR HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON CLOUD TRENDS LAST
NIGHT...AND STILL APPEAR TO THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE FOLLOWED
INTO TONIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND THEN BEGIN
MOVING BACK NORTH AND WEST IN WEAK 0-1KM FLOW AS IT SHIFTS FROM NE
TO SE BY LATER THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD REACH ALL BUT FAR NW
SECTIONS TOWARD SUNRISE AND THEN EXPECT STRATUS TO STALL BY THAT
TIME WITH 0-1KM MEAN WIND DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.
TEMPS WILL FALL LITTLE UNDER CURRENT THICKER CLOUD COVER SO HAVE
MINS LESS THAN FIVE DEGREES FROM CURRENT OBS THERE. FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST DIURNAL RANGE MAY BE GREATER WITH A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING DURING THE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THESE AREAS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DURATION OF CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AND EXTENDED WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AS IOWA REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...SUFFICIENT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED TODAY TO
KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS STATE...AND MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
WARMING...AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS THAN GOING. HOWEVER...WITH 850MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO WARM
BY MID WEEK...WILL SEE WARMING TREND TO TEMPS...AND IF CLOUDS
CLEAR WITH MIXING MAY BE TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR WARMEST GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL SIMILARLY BE AFFECTED BY CLOUDS...MAY BE TOO WARM GIVEN
AMOUNT OF COOLING THE PAST NIGHTS...THOUGH HAVE FAVORED CONTINUED
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS.
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME MID WEEK AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS SW US BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AS WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WITH SYSTEM...THOUGH ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BEST CHANCES COMING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTH. SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH QUICKLY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AGAIN BEHIND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST WITH HIGH
FRIDAY...THOUGH ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WAA WILL RETURN BEHIND
RETREATING HIGH AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN FOR WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL PERSIST WITH THE ONLY
CONCERN IFR VS MVFR AND WHETHER VSBY RESTRICTIONS OCCUR. FAVORED
SCENARIO AT THE MOMENT IS MVFR CIGS/JUST ABOVE VFR VSBYS BY THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH CIGS MAINLY BELOW 2KFT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1240 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.AVIATION...
DEEP E-NE FLOW BROUGHT IN MVFR CIGS FROM MS RIVER VALLEY. THESE
CLOUDS MAY REMAIN THRU THE PERIOD AT KMLU AND KELD TERMINALS
WITHOUT MANY BREAKS...BUT ARE DIMINISHING AT KSHV AND KTXK.
VFR SKC IN NE TX...WITH MID LVL CLOUDS MOVG IN FROM THE WEST.
N-NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...AND AROUND 10 KTS KELD AND KMLU
BECMG LGT AFTER 05/00Z. MVFR CIGS TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
05/12Z WHERE THESE LOW DECKS NOT ALREADY PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE.
KLFK AND POSSIBLY KTYR TO REMAIN VFR THRU THE 05/18Z CYCLE./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD
OVER SW AR/N LA...WITH THE WRN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD COVER BEGINNING
TO MIX OUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUD FIELD EVIDENCED
BY THE 12Z KSHV RAOB. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS QUITE A BIT
DEEPER FARTHER E /PER THE 12Z KJAN RAOB/...TRAPPED BENEATH A
STEEP CAPPING INVERSION WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIMITED SFC WARMING. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING TODAY OVER
SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA...AND DRASTICALLY LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR THE
AREAS...TO NEAR 70/LOWER 70S PER THE COOLER HRRR 2M TEMP GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE FOR
THE FAR ERN ZONES. GIVEN THE COOLER START TO THE MORNING...TEMPS
ACROSS E TX MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED
SATURDAY...THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A TAD AS THESE AREAS WERE STILL
IN THE MID 60S AS OF 16Z.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATOCU FIELD WILL SPREAD
FARTHER WSW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON TO
HELP BETTER DEFINE THE TEMP/SKY COVER FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 62 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 71 62 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 78 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 77 59 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 73 60 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 80 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 80 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 80 59 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1148 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW OVER THE SE U.S. CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND LOW STRATOCUMULUS
DECK ~2000 FT ACROSS C AND SC LA...KEEPING AEX/LFT/ARA IN PREVAILING
MVFR CEILINGS. MAY HAVE INTERMITTENT BREAKS TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
BELIEVE THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS AREA HAS HALTED PER LATEST
VIS SAT TRENDS...THUS NOT EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS TO REACH LCH
(AND IF SO ONLY BRIEFLY) WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR BPT TO PREVAIL
VFR TODAY. OPTIMISTIC THIS LAYER SHOULD THIN OUT OVER C AND SC LA
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NE...THUS GOING WITH
ONLY SCT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...N WINDS ~10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KTS...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/
UPDATE...MAIN ISSUE FOR THE UPDATE WILL CLOUD COVER BE CLOUD COVER
AND MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE SHOWS WESTERN
SHIELD OF CLOUD COVER IS SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO SW LOUISIANA. LOW
LEVEL RH PROGS FROM HRRR AND GFS HINT AT CLOUD COVER LINGERING
DURING MOST OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ACADIANA...WITH GREAT
UNCERTAINTY FURTHER WEST. WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA FOR TODAY WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT DROP OVER EASTERN PARTS
OF FORECAST AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS MOMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 60 86 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 62 84 67 87 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 63 86 67 88 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 62 83 67 87 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1140 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD
OVER SW AR/N LA...WITH THE WRN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD COVER BEGINNING
TO MIX OUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUD FIELD EVIDENCED
BY THE 12Z KSHV RAOB. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS QUITE A BIT
DEEPER FARTHER E /PER THE 12Z KJAN RAOB/...TRAPPED BENEATH A
STEEP CAPPING INVERSION WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIMITED SFC WARMING. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING TODAY OVER
SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA...AND DRASTICALLY LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR THE
AREAS...TO NEAR 70/LOWER 70S PER THE COOLER HRRR 2M TEMP GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE FOR
THE FAR ERN ZONES. GIVEN THE COOLER START TO THE MORNING...TEMPS
ACROSS E TX MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED
SATURDAY...THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A TAD AS THESE AREAS WERE STILL
IN THE MID 60S AS OF 16Z.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATOCU FIELD WILL SPREAD
FARTHER WSW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON TO
HELP BETTER DEFINE THE TEMP/SKY COVER FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 62 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 71 62 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 78 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 77 59 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 73 60 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 80 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 80 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 80 59 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1034 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...MAIN ISSUE FOR THE UPDATE WILL CLOUD COVER BE CLOUD COVER
AND MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE SHOWS WESTERN
SHIELD OF CLOUD COVER IS SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO SW LOUISIANA. LOW
LEVEL RH PROGS FROM HRRR AND GFS HINT AT CLOUD COVER LINGERING
DURING MOST OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ACADIANA...WITH GREAT
UNCERTAINTY FURTHER WEST. WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA FOR TODAY WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT DROP OVER EASTERN PARTS
OF FORECAST AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS MOMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 75 60 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 76 62 84 67 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 74 63 86 67 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 77 62 83 67 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
152 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
HAVE MADE MULTIPLE TWEAKS AFTER THE BIGGER CHANGES EARLIER TODAY.
MAIN THING IS THERE IS SOME WEAK LE RAIN BANDS MOVING IN OFF OF
LAKE HURON. THEY ARE WELL COORDINATED WITH THE +5C 850 MB
TEMPERATURE AND AREAS NORTH, WHERE THERE IS COOLER AIR, IN A
FAIRLY MOIST LAYER THAT EXTENDS UP THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB. THE BANDS
OVER THE LAST HOUR HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING ON THE RADAR OVER, BUT
THINK THAT ISOLATE RAIN SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE NORTH
OF M-72 TO THE STRAITS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MAY HAVE MORE TO UPDATE IN THE UPCOMING HOURS, BUT HAVE UPDATED
THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE RAIN LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HRRR HAS BEEN MATCHING UP WITH THE KAPX RADAR DEPICTION
OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE HIRESW-NMM-EAST, A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING,
AND A SECOND WAVE IS COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
EVENING, AS WELL AS THE SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING UP.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING HAS SHIFTED WEST OF MICHIGAN...NOW
EXTENDING FROM WRN ONTARIO THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODEST SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS
NOSED ITS WAY INTO MICHIGAN. NRN EDGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE PERSISTENT MID ATLANTIC LOW HAS FINALLY REACHED OUR CWA...
PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AS WELL AS N CENTRAL AND NE LWR MICHIGAN. TIGHT EAST/WEST
MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA HAS KEPT MUCH OF OUR FAR
WRN CWA MAINLY DRY THRU THE NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY. SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE THRU OUR
CWA AND INTO ONTARIO. DIMINISHING LIFT AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SLOW DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND THUS
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD
OVER NE LWR MICHIGAN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON LONGEST.
STILL...ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY FOR THE NORTHWOODS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE E/NE BUT WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 MPH.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT...RENEWING OUR CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
SHALLOW...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL INTENSITY TO LIGHT. UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT E/NE WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CURRENT RATHER UNUSUAL
BLOCKING PATTERN ABOUT SET TO TRANSITION TO ONE MUCH MORE FAMILIAR
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH QUASI-ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ONCE
AGAIN BECOMING DOMINATE THIS WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN CONUS. MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET CORES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE LAKES...SUGGESTING ONLY BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF ANY CHILLY AIR AND A
FAIRLY MILD STRETCH OF OCTOBER WEATHER. NOT A PARTICULARLY ACTIVE
STRETCH OF WEATHER...ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING LIKE LATE WEEK SYSTEM
WILL BRING A BOUT OF WET WEATHER ALONG WITH IT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: CLOUD/LIGHT RAIN ISSUES
MONDAY. ADDRESSING BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL TO END THE WORK WEEK.
DETAILS: WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH OVERHEAD PESKY ATLANTIC MOISTURE
PLUME (ALBEIT THINNING) ON MONDAY. WHILE FORCING TO WORK OVER THIS
MOISTURE IS ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
RATHER DEEP SATURATED LAYER BELOW H8. THIS LOOKS JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. DESPITE TOP-DOWN MOISTURE
EVACUATION THROUGH THE DAY...SUB INVERSION LEVEL REMAINS SATURATED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...SUGGESTING CLOUDY SKIES WILL DOMINATE. A
DIFFERENT STORY NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE...WITH A MUCH DRIER PROFILE
SUPPORTING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. EARLIER MENTIONED PATTERN
CHANGE REALLY KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR BY LATE MONDAY...CONTINUING TOP-
DOWN DRYING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...SUB INVERSION LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKING TO HOLD STRONG...WITH SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO GET RID OF IT. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO THIN TO SUPPORT ANY
FURTHER DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES... BUT EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PATCHY FOG NIGHT...WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS
AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
FAST MOVING WEAK WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH SLICE ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO
BRING THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER. A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
A DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
HEADING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WELL DEFINED WAVE
INTERACTS WITH A DECENT SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SYSTEM WILL
BE A STEADY MOVER...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER BY SATURDAY. A RATHER
UNUSUAL FALL SYSTEM IN THAT NO SUBSTANTIAL COOLING FOLLOWS
IT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE IFR CIGS, AND SOME MVFR VSBYS WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE MOIST, EAST FLOW CONTINUES IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN OFF OF LAKE HURON AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
REMAIN AROUND +5C OR LESS OVER THE 15 TO 17C WATER TEMPERATURES.
NOT TO MENTION THAT WITH THE SLACK GRADIENT WE HAVE THE CHANCE TO
HAVE SOME IFR VSBYS AT APN AND PLN WHERE THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO STAGNATE. AT TVC AND MBL, THE EAST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SOME DOWNSLOPING KEEPING THE VSBY IN THE MVFR OR VFR
CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST AT SCA CRITERIA OVER LAKE HURON
THRU MUCH OF TODAY AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
PILE UP WAVES ALONG THE NEARSHORE AREAS. THE REST OF OUR NEARSHORE
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT OUR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREAS THRU
TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF OUR LAKE
MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SURGES INTO
OUR AREA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1255 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
HAVE MADE MULTIPLE TWEAKS AFTER THE BIGGER CHANGES EARLIER TODAY.
MAIN THING IS THERE IS SOME WEAK LE RAIN BANDS MOVING IN OFF OF
LAKE HURON. THEY ARE WELL COORDINATED WITH THE +5C 850 MB
TEMPERATURE AND AREAS NORTH, WHERE THERE IS COOLER AIR, IN A
FAIRLY MOIST LAYER THAT EXTENDS UP THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB. THE BANDS
OVER THE LAST HOUR HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING ON THE RADAR OVER, BUT
THINK THAT ISOLATE RAIN SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE NORTH
OF M-72 TO THE STRAITS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MAY HAVE MORE TO UPDATE IN THE UPCOMING HOURS, BUT HAVE UPDATED
THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE RAIN LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HRRR HAS BEEN MATCHING UP WITH THE KAPX RADAR DEPICTION
OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE HIRESW-NMM-EAST, A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING,
AND A SECOND WAVE IS COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
EVENING, AS WELL AS THE SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING UP.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING HAS SHIFTED WEST OF MICHIGAN...NOW
EXTENDING FROM WRN ONTARIO THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODEST SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS
NOSED ITS WAY INTO MICHIGAN. NRN EDGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE PERSISTENT MID ATLANTIC LOW HAS FINALLY REACHED OUR CWA...
PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AS WELL AS N CENTRAL AND NE LWR MICHIGAN. TIGHT EAST/WEST
MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA HAS KEPT MUCH OF OUR FAR
WRN CWA MAINLY DRY THRU THE NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY. SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE THRU OUR
CWA AND INTO ONTARIO. DIMINISHING LIFT AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SLOW DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND THUS
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD
OVER NE LWR MICHIGAN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON LONGEST.
STILL...ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY FOR THE NORTHWOODS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE E/NE BUT WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 MPH.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT...RENEWING OUR CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
SHALLOW...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL INTENSITY TO LIGHT. UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT E/NE WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CURRENT RATHER UNUSUAL
BLOCKING PATTERN ABOUT SET TO TRANSITION TO ONE MUCH MORE FAMILIAR
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH QUASI-ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ONCE
AGAIN BECOMING DOMINATE THIS WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN CONUS. MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET CORES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE LAKES...SUGGESTING ONLY BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF ANY CHILLY AIR AND A
FAIRLY MILD STRETCH OF OCTOBER WEATHER. NOT A PARTICULARLY ACTIVE
STRETCH OF WEATHER...ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING LIKE LATE WEEK SYSTEM
WILL BRING A BOUT OF WET WEATHER ALONG WITH IT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: CLOUD/LIGHT RAIN ISSUES
MONDAY. ADDRESSING BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL TO END THE WORK WEEK.
DETAILS: WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH OVERHEAD PESKY ATLANTIC MOISTURE
PLUME (ALBEIT THINNING) ON MONDAY. WHILE FORCING TO WORK OVER THIS
MOISTURE IS ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
RATHER DEEP SATURATED LAYER BELOW H8. THIS LOOKS JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. DESPITE TOP-DOWN MOISTURE
EVACUATION THROUGH THE DAY...SUB INVERSION LEVEL REMAINS SATURATED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...SUGGESTING CLOUDY SKIES WILL DOMINATE. A
DIFFERENT STORY NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE...WITH A MUCH DRIER PROFILE
SUPPORTING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. EARLIER MENTIONED PATTERN
CHANGE REALLY KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR BY LATE MONDAY...CONTINUING TOP-
DOWN DRYING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...SUB INVERSION LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKING TO HOLD STRONG...WITH SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO GET RID OF IT. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO THIN TO SUPPORT ANY
FURTHER DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES... BUT EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PATCHY FOG NIGHT...WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS
AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
FAST MOVING WEAK WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH SLICE ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO
BRING THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER. A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
A DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
HEADING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WELL DEFINED WAVE
INTERACTS WITH A DECENT SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SYSTEM WILL
BE A STEADY MOVER...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER BY SATURDAY. A RATHER
UNUSUAL FALL SYSTEM IN THAT NO SUBSTANTIAL COOLING FOLLOWS
IT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND ERN LWR MICHIGAN (APN). PRECIP CHANCES FOR
OUR TAF SITES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) WILL BE TOO SMALL
THRU TODAY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE E/NE AOB 10 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST AT SCA CRITERIA OVER LAKE HURON
THRU MUCH OF TODAY AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
PILE UP WAVES ALONG THE NEARSHORE AREAS. THE REST OF OUR NEARSHORE
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT OUR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREAS THRU
TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF OUR LAKE
MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SURGES INTO
OUR AREA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1006 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MAY HAVE MORE TO UPDATE IN THE UPCOMING HOURS, BUT HAVE UPDATED
THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE RAIN LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HRRR HAS BEEN MATCHING UP WITH THE KAPX RADAR DEPICTION
OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE HIRESW-NMM-EAST, A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING,
AND A SECOND WAVE IS COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
EVENING, AS WELL AS THE SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING UP.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING HAS SHIFTED WEST OF MICHIGAN...NOW
EXTENDING FROM WRN ONTARIO THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODEST SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS
NOSED ITS WAY INTO MICHIGAN. NRN EDGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE PERSISTENT MID ATLANTIC LOW HAS FINALLY REACHED OUR CWA...
PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AS WELL AS N CENTRAL AND NE LWR MICHIGAN. TIGHT EAST/WEST
MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA HAS KEPT MUCH OF OUR FAR
WRN CWA MAINLY DRY THRU THE NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY. SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE THRU OUR
CWA AND INTO ONTARIO. DIMINISHING LIFT AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SLOW DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND THUS
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD
OVER NE LWR MICHIGAN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON LONGEST.
STILL...ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY FOR THE NORTHWOODS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE E/NE BUT WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 MPH.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT...RENEWING OUR CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
SHALLOW...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL INTENSITY TO LIGHT. UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT E/NE WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CURRENT RATHER UNUSUAL
BLOCKING PATTERN ABOUT SET TO TRANSITION TO ONE MUCH MORE FAMILIAR
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH QUASI-ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ONCE
AGAIN BECOMING DOMINATE THIS WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN CONUS. MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET CORES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE LAKES...SUGGESTING ONLY BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF ANY CHILLY AIR AND A
FAIRLY MILD STRETCH OF OCTOBER WEATHER. NOT A PARTICULARLY ACTIVE
STRETCH OF WEATHER...ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING LIKE LATE WEEK SYSTEM
WILL BRING A BOUT OF WET WEATHER ALONG WITH IT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: CLOUD/LIGHT RAIN ISSUES
MONDAY. ADDRESSING BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL TO END THE WORK WEEK.
DETAILS: WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH OVERHEAD PESKY ATLANTIC MOISTURE
PLUME (ALBEIT THINNING) ON MONDAY. WHILE FORCING TO WORK OVER THIS
MOISTURE IS ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
RATHER DEEP SATURATED LAYER BELOW H8. THIS LOOKS JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. DESPITE TOP-DOWN MOISTURE
EVACUATION THROUGH THE DAY...SUB INVERSION LEVEL REMAINS SATURATED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...SUGGESTING CLOUDY SKIES WILL DOMINATE. A
DIFFERENT STORY NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE...WITH A MUCH DRIER PROFILE
SUPPORTING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. EARLIER MENTIONED PATTERN
CHANGE REALLY KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR BY LATE MONDAY...CONTINUING TOP-
DOWN DRYING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...SUB INVERSION LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKING TO HOLD STRONG...WITH SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO GET RID OF IT. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO THIN TO SUPPORT ANY
FURTHER DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES... BUT EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PATCHY FOG NIGHT...WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS
AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
FAST MOVING WEAK WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH SLICE ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO
BRING THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER. A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
A DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
HEADING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WELL DEFINED WAVE
INTERACTS WITH A DECENT SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SYSTEM WILL
BE A STEADY MOVER...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER BY SATURDAY. A RATHER
UNUSUAL FALL SYSTEM IN THAT NO SUBSTANTIAL COOLING FOLLOWS
IT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND ERN LWR MICHIGAN (APN). PRECIP CHANCES FOR
OUR TAF SITES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) WILL BE TOO SMALL
THRU TODAY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE E/NE AOB 10 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST AT SCA CRITERIA OVER LAKE HURON
THRU MUCH OF TODAY AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
PILE UP WAVES ALONG THE NEARSHORE AREAS. THE REST OF OUR NEARSHORE
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT OUR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREAS THRU
TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF OUR LAKE
MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SURGES INTO
OUR AREA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ347>349.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
916 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.UPDATE...DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH LOW TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 60. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
ACROSS MAINLY SE ZONES. THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WERE
TO ADD PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AND MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS. /27/
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED ABOVE 5 KFT WILL BE AROUND THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH.
SOME PATCHY MVFR...AND POSSIBLY EVEN IFR...VIS REDUCTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 830 AM TOMORROW. THIS WILL MAINLY BE
THE CASE ACROSS EASTERN MS SITES OF CBM/GTR/NMM/MEI/PIB/HBG (BUT
ESPECIALLY HBG AND PIB). ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO ALL VFR FLIGHT CATS BY MID MORNING WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS DECKS ONCE AGAIN BASED LARGELY ABOVE 5 KFT. WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC
AND TEND TO REMAIN LESS THAN 12 MPH. /BB/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...WE FINALLY GOT RID OF THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK
THIS MORNING... BUT LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A RESURGENCE OF
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. THE HRRR DATA IS SHOWING
THIS CLOUD DECK...BUT IT SEEMS A LITTLE FAST IN DISSIPATING IT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DECK LOOKS TO BE MORE MODULATED BY MIXING...THUS
EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING.
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INCH TO THE EAST AND DRY AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. ALREADY TEMPS TODAY HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S...AND EXPECT THIS WARMTH TO CONTINUE WITH VALUES APPROACHING 90
BY WEDNESDAY.
COLD CORE LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY AND ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PULL EAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
NEVER DO MUCH TO INCREASE MOISTURE AS LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL BE
ABOUT AS MUCH THAT CAN BE MUSTERED. THUS...AM ONLY LOOKING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST AS MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO TREND
DRIER./26/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 62 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 6
MERIDIAN 61 85 61 87 / 1 2 1 4
VICKSBURG 59 88 60 90 / 0 0 0 5
HATTIESBURG 62 86 64 88 / 2 2 2 5
NATCHEZ 61 85 63 87 / 0 1 1 4
GREENVILLE 60 86 63 89 / 1 1 2 3
GREENWOOD 59 87 62 88 / 1 1 1 4
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
326 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING MORE BREAKS IN
THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK...MAINLY OVER SOUTH MS. WITH BOUNDARLY
LAYER COOLING AND NOTHING TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE IN THE INVERTED
LAYER...EXPECT CLOUD DECK TO CONGEAL ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. BETTER
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY WILL FINALLY ALLOW CLOUD DECK TO
BREAK APART...BUT THE ABSENCE OF AN AGENT TO CLEAR THE MOIST LAYER
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS OF CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND.
DESPITE THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING GETTING UNDERWAY TOMORROW...DECIDED
TO CUT MAX TEMPS A BIT AS CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE
DAY.
MOVING FORWARD INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD...COLD CORE LOW OVER THE SE
WILL FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT WHILE ANOTHER POTENT LOW DIGS
OVER THE SW CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN...
EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE NORTHERN MS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT AND THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO NW SECTIONS BY FRIDAY AND AREAWIDE BY
SATURDAY. PRESENTLY THOUGH...WEAK WINDS AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD
SPELL JUST LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN AREAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE
ANY./26/
&&
.AVIATION...THE STRATUS DECK HAS CONTINUED TO THIN AND BREAK UP SOME
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED HEATING...AND CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIFT SOME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. GOING INTO TONIGHT...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON EXPANSE OF STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN STINGY WITH SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT...BUT GIVEN
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOWER CIGS
IN THE TAFS...ESPECIALLY AT GTR/MEI. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 58 82 64 85 / 2 2 2 7
MERIDIAN 60 81 62 84 / 5 2 2 6
VICKSBURG 58 83 63 88 / 1 2 3 7
HATTIESBURG 62 82 64 86 / 4 1 2 5
NATCHEZ 58 82 64 86 / 1 2 3 7
GREENVILLE 58 82 63 87 / 1 2 2 6
GREENWOOD 57 82 62 86 / 2 2 2 6
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
26/EC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1112 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME BIG BREAKS IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD DECK OCCURRING OVER EASTERN MS INTO AL. HRRR DATA IS
INDICATING THAT THE REDUCED WIND SPEEDS AND CHANGE IN DIRECTION HAS
REMOVED THE COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THESE AREAS ALLOWING
MIXING TO GET MORE OF A FOOTHOLD. MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ON
THIS CLOUD DECK FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING BREAKS TO
REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE I55 CORRIDOR. MORE SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE TO NEAR 75 DEGREES OVER THE EAST WHILE TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 70 OVER THE WEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD ON STRONG./26/
&&
.AVIATION...THE STRATUS DECK IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF THINNING AND
BREAKING UP AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER/INVERSION. NEWEST GUIDANCE SHOWS IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON THE POTENTIAL FOR PREVALENT VFR CATEGORIES CIGS CONTINUE
TO LIFT OR BREAK UP - BUT NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN...SO REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CATEGORY STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT WHICH WOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN
THE NEAR TERM REMAINS LOW CLOUDINESS AND ITS IMPACTS ON TEMPS.
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THE UPPER LOW HAS NOW CUT OFF OVER
SOUTH GA. 11-3.9U IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK
ENCOMPASSING ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AROUND THE LOW. PATCHY MIST WAS OBSERVED
UNDER THIS CLOUD DECK, THOUGH THERE WERE NO NOTABLE RADAR RETURNS,
EXCEPT OVER NW ALABAMA AND FAR NE MISSISSIPPI WHERE SOMEWHAT STEADIER
DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING. 8Z TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S AT MOST LOCAL
RECORDING SITES.
HEADING THROUGH MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. A RIBBON OF MOISTURE AROUND 850-950 MB WILL CONTINUE
TO TRAIL THIS FEATURE, MEANING THE PESKY BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD
DECK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO NERN ZONES TODAY, SO
ISOLATED POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE, ANY MIST OR
VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN INCONSEQUENTIAL. ONCE AGAIN WE TRENDED BELOW MOS FOR HIGH
TEMPS TODAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO THIN OUT MORE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, THOUGH WE MAY STILL SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS
CONTINUING INTO THE DAYTIME ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST IN THE AREA.
WITH MORE INSOLATION ANTICIPATED, DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE 80S AT MOST LOCALES. /DL/
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WARM...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AREAS...TO THE MID
80S THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TEXAS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO BRING IN
SOME RAIN TO THE WEST A LITTLE EARLIER THAN OTHER MODELS AS THIS
UPPER LOW EJECTS EAST...BUT HAS SLOWED THIS RETURN DOWN BY ABOUT 6-
12 HOURS SINCE LAST NIGHT. OVERALL...SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE KEPT
IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. /28/
AVIATION...MVFR CIGS DUE TO A STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST AT MOST
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING, GRADUALLY LIFTING BY THE AFTERNOON. MOST
TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS, BUT SOME FARTHER EAST
SITES SUCH AS GTR/MEI COULD SEE CIGS LINGER NEAR THE MVFR/VFR
THRESHOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST
TO 15-20 KT AT TIMES TODAY. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 73 60 84 63 / 3 4 5 5
MERIDIAN 76 64 81 62 / 8 9 7 5
VICKSBURG 69 60 85 63 / 1 3 4 4
HATTIESBURG 76 64 84 63 / 3 4 4 3
NATCHEZ 70 60 84 64 / 2 3 3 4
GREENVILLE 73 59 85 63 / 2 4 4 4
GREENWOOD 72 60 84 62 / 5 5 5 4
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
26/EC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
656 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2015
Skies will turn mostly cloudy again tonight as a large stream of mid-
high clouds ahead of shortwave seen in water vapor imagery currently
over the Central Plains will move across the area. Expect little if
any rain from this system as ascent and low level moisture is
lacking. Lows tonight will be closers to the warmer GFS MOS because
of the clouds.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2015
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Clouds will linger throughout the morning on Tuesday before the
shortwave finally moves off to the east. Then a ridge will build
over the area on Wednesday keeping dry weather going. Then expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms to move into the area on
Thursday and Thursday night as both the GFS and the NAM show a upper
trough and an attendant cold front moving southeastward across the
Midwest. Temperatures will warm up into the 70s and lower 80s as
850mb temperatures climb into the 10-15C range.
(Friday through Monday)
GFS and ECMWF are still in good agreement that the trough and cold
front will move east of the area early in the day on Friday which
will confine rain chances to the southeastern half of the CWA. Then
both models show a surface high moving across the area on Saturday
before the low level flow turns southwesterly on Sunday ahead of the
next cold front. Neither model is show any significant upper
troughs or depicting any QPF over the area during the Saturday
through Monday timeframe, so will go with a dry forecast for now.
Guidance temperatures support highs in the upper 60s behind the
front on Friday...but then gradual warming to around 80 by early
next week as 850mb temperatures climb into the upper teens Celsius.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2015
Weak upper level system will move across the region te next 24
hours bringing back the northwest flow aloft. Main question is
will the mvfr clouds return: all sites vfr at taf issuance. Have
gone VFR for now with the idea that extensive mid and high clouds
will prevent widespreas redevelopment. Some sprinkles possible
from the mid clouds from the upper level system. Will watch cloud
trends closely for COU and UIN.
Specifics for KSTL: RAP noses in some lower RH values from the
east. This along with the mid and high clouds should keep STL VFR.
Fingers are crossed.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
846 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2015
.UPDATE...
WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 06 AND 18 UTC OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY...OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE. OUR CONFIDENCE IN
LOW CLOUD /STRATUS/ AND FOG DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEASTERN MT AND
POSSIBLY NORTH CENTRAL WY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING IS ON
THE INCREASE BASED ON EARLY-EVENING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S F
IN THOSE AREAS AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. THOSE MODELS
IMPLY THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG ISN/T OUT OF THE QUESTION IN PLACES
LIKE BAKER WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A SURFACE-BASED
INVERSION AND LIGHT RETURN-FLOW WINDS THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED FROM NORTHEAST MT INTO WESTERN ND. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS IS EXITING MONTANA AT THIS TIME WITH
500MB HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO OUR WEST. AIR MASS WILL BE
STABLE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ONLY REAL FORECAST ISSUE CONCERNS
THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED MUCH FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO CANADA
BY TOMORROW MORNING AND EASTERLY GRADIENT IS NOT AS STRONG OVER
OUR CWA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW MODELS FORECASTING SOME NARROW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AGAIN. SO WHILE I DON/T THINK FOG/LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE AS WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT TOMORROW...I WILL ADD PATCHY
FOG FOR LATE NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR EAST...AND
KEEP CLOUD COVER UP IN EAST FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AGAIN.
FOR TUESDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER OUR REGION WHILE
A CUT UPPER LOW DRIFTS ACROSS ARIZONA. SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT UPPER LOW ATTEMPTS TO RIDE NORTH...BUT LOOKS TO STAY
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION WITH MAYBE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE
BIG HORNS AND PERHAPS AROUND CARTER COUNTY. WE SHOULD TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO REBOUND AS LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING DEVELOPS TUESDAY
EVENING LEADING TO DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS AS WE HEAD INTO
WEDNESDAY. UPPER SHORT WAVE BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. I ANTICIPATE INCREASING CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHERE ANY FRONTOGENESIS BRIEFLY HANGS UP.
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE IS PRETTY HIGH SO ANY PRECIPITATION
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY SIMPLY REMAIN VIRGA. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SOMEWHAT SUBDUED FROM WEDNESDAY READINGS BUT
STILL REMAIN SEASONAL. A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL BE
SLIDING EAST AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN DUE TO SOME WAA...BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL
HAVE THE MERCURY BOUNCING BACK AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
PERIOD BEGINS TO LOOK THAT OF A WARM AUTUMN PATTERN SCENARIO AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS ON THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
THEREFORE...WE ARE ANTICIPATING INCREASED WIND AND MIXING. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR GAP FLOW AREAS AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. BT
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD ASIDE FOR KSHR AND KMLS WHERE IFR CIGS AND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM 09-15Z. STILL UNCERTAIN TO
THE EXTENT AND INITIATION BUT GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEARING
SKIES ABOVE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SUPPORT HIGHER CONFIDENCES IN AT
LEAST MVFR AND IFR RESTRICTIONS. HIGHER CLOUDS TO OUR SOUTH COULD
KEEP KSHR IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH STILL
BELIEVE WE SHOULD STILL SQUEEZE MVFR RESTRICTIONS EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO KMLS AND KSHR BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DOBBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/068 049/073 047/069 050/078 053/082 053/081 051/070
00/U 00/B 11/B 10/B 00/B 00/U 20/B
LVM 039/072 045/071 043/069 046/078 048/080 047/077 045/067
00/U 00/E 11/E 10/N 00/N 01/N 21/B
HDN 039/071 046/075 044/070 046/080 048/084 049/082 048/072
00/B 00/B 11/B 10/B 00/B 00/U 22/W
MLS 039/068 048/075 044/068 049/079 051/083 051/080 049/070
00/B 00/N 11/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 22/W
4BQ 040/070 048/075 045/067 047/078 050/083 051/082 048/070
00/B 10/B 11/B 10/B 00/B 00/U 11/B
BHK 039/066 047/074 043/065 045/076 049/080 050/080 047/068
00/B 00/N 11/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 21/U
SHR 039/071 044/075 044/069 042/079 045/083 046/083 045/071
01/B 10/B 11/B 10/B 00/B 00/U 10/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
716 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EVENING UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE FOCUSED AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
THIS EVENING. MAXRH WHEN USING THE SUPERBLEND/CONSRAW/BCALLBLEND
WAS BRINGING RH UP TO NEAR 98 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WHEN
LOOKING AT THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT A SHARP
INVERSION SET UP ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP INTO
FOG ON THE GROUND AS SATURATION IS REACHED. ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS OF THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES NAM SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING A DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOW STRATUS AROUND OR
UNDER 1000 FT. WHEN INITIALIZING VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS GRIDS
WITH THE HRRR AND RAP THESE SAME CHARACTERISTICS WERE ALSO
OBSERVED AND ONLY SERVED TO HEIGHTEN CONFIDENCE OF COVERAGE.
EXACTLY HOW DENSE FOG WILL BE HOWEVER IS A BIT MORE TROUBLING TO
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. GAH
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THE LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK IS SLOWLY ERODING AWAY TODAY FROM NE
MONTANA FROM WEST TO EAST AS CLEARING SKIES AND A MORE RELAXED NW
FLOW ALOFT TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN.
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. USUALLY AFTER A
GOOD RAIN MAKER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND SKIES CLEAR...FOG WOULD
BE VERY LIKELY...BUT A VARIETY OF MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL BE NOT
NECESSARILY THE CASE. AT THIS TIME...FEEL IT IS BEST TO ERR ON THE
SIDE OF CAUTION GIVEN THE USUALLY FAVORABLE MESOSCALE SET UP. IN
THE GRIDS...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF FOG LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND RIVER VALLEYS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A CALM AND PLEASANT TRANSITION FROM A
COOL NW FLOW TO A WARMER...WINDIER...MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED.
IN FACT...A QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCE OR WEAK COOL FRONT EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW LOOKS TO BRING SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30
MPH ON WEDNESDAY AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
UPDATE...MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH A GOOD WARMUP FOR NEXT
WEEKEND UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE IS BROKEN DOWN. ONLY TWEAKS WORTH NOTING
WERE TO INCREASE TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND COOL THINGS
DOWN FOR MONDAY. OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST STANDS. GILCHRIST
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER PATTERN EVOLVING FROM A SPLIT FLOW AROUND CLOSED LOW IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...INTO AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH RIDGE ALONG THE
WEST COAST MIDWEEK. UPPER RIDGE IS THEN PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BY EXPANDING LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA RESULTING
IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WARM AND DRY AIR
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE DIVIDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE FLATTENS OUT...A COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS MONTANA...AND WITH MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS
THE DIVIDE COULD SEE THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR. IFR POSSIBLE IN FOG TONIGHT.
SYNOPSIS: UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE BEHIND THE NOW EXITING
LOW...MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.
FOG AND STRATUS: WITH LIGHT WINDS...RECENT PRECIPITATION...AND
CLEARING SKIES FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. COVERAGE FOR FOG WILL
BE LOCATED MORE TO THE WEST AND IMPACT THE KGGW TERMINAL THE
MOST... WITH THE FOG DECK GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE OF A LOW
STRATUS DECK TOWARDS THE EAST AS THE GROUND SLOPES LOWER IN
ELEVATION... IFR CLOUD DECKS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KSDY... AND ANY
COMBINATION OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KOLF AND
KGDV. MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD START FORMING AROUND 09Z... PEAK
AROUND 15Z... AND DISSIPATED BY 18Z.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 6KTS THROUGH TONIGHT...
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HICKS/GILCHRIST
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1236 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
TODAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPANDING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BETWEEN 3 AM AND MID MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST PREVALENT THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOST FOCUSED/WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. THE SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES HAVE TAKEN RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL MODELS
LIKE THE HRRR AND WRF THAT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
REMAINING SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...ELECTED TO KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AT LEAST FOR NOW. NO MAJOR FORECAST MODEL GIVES ANYONE
MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL AND THUS EXPECT RAIN
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO PERHAPS AROUND 0.10 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH AGAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE MID 60S OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
ZONES.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL JUST BE SITTING OUT OVER CALIFORNIA
AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN
SEEING A DRY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD MONDAY MORNING...SPECIFICALLY IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SETUP. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FLORIDA STATE LINE WILL FINALLY
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS
REMAINED IN PLACE FOR SOME TIME NOW...WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OFF FROM
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WHILE IT SPINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH REALLY NO AFFECT ON
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE LOW BECOMES MORE CUTOFF OVER TIME...VERY WEAK RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP DISTURBANCES THAT ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS FAR ENOUGH WEST BY THE EARLY WORKWEEK. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT IS A CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AS MODELS ARE REALLY BACKING OFF ON
PRECIPITATION REACHING THIS FAR EAST. SHOULD TIMING SPEED UP IN THE
SYSTEM...ITS POSSIBLE...BUT LOOKING LESS LIKELY.
THE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD
ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THE CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS TO DEEPEN. AT THE SURFACE...TWO AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...THE STANDARD FRONT RANGE
LOW...AND A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THE MAIN LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE PLAINS ACROSS TEXAS...WHILE THE TROUGH ENERGY WILL SWING NORTH
OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT RANGE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL ALSO PUSH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. NOW WHAT
DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN...MODELS ARE CERTAINLY SUGGESTING RAIN WILL BE
AROUND...ESPECIALLY AS THE ROCKIES LOW DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA...PROBABLY THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. BUT WITH THE
POSITION OF BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SPLITING NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE PLAINS...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS IS
LOW. IF THE FEATURES STRENGTHEN AND DEVELOP BEFORE REACHING THE
PLAINS...THEN CONFIDENCE IS BETTER...BUT IF NOT AS SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF...WE MIGHT SEE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HERE AND THERE AND
THATS IT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FAIRLY SEASONABLE IN THE 70S TO EVEN 80S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW DAYS. COLD FRONT IS LIKELY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BUT NOTHING DRASTIC
AS OF YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AT THE MIDDAY HOUR...AND LOOK TO AFFECT THE GRI TERMINAL OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE PUSHING OUT. DO HAVE THE EAR TERMINAL DRY.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD CALLS FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT CLOUD WILL BE STICKING
AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND KEPT THE BKN VFR CEILING IN
PLACE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED WITH WINDS...WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...TOPPING OUT
AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
535 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
TODAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPANDING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BETWEEN 3 AM AND MID MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST PREVALENT THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOST FOCUSED/WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. THE SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES HAVE TAKEN RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL MODELS
LIKE THE HRRR AND WRF THAT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
REMAINING SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...ELECTED TO KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AT LEAST FOR NOW. NO MAJOR FORECAST MODEL GIVES ANYONE
MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL AND THUS EXPECT RAIN
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO PERHAPS AROUND 0.10 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH AGAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE MID 60S OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
ZONES.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL JUST BE SITTING OUT OVER CALIFORNIA
AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN
SEEING A DRY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD MONDAY MORNING...SPECIFICALLY IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SETUP. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FLORIDA STATE LINE WILL FINALLY
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS
REMAINED IN PLACE FOR SOME TIME NOW...WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OFF FROM
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WHILE IT SPINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH REALLY NO AFFECT ON
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE LOW BECOMES MORE CUTOFF OVER TIME...VERY WEAK RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP DISTURBANCES THAT ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS FAR ENOUGH WEST BY THE EARLY WORKWEEK. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT IS A CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AS MODELS ARE REALLY BACKING OFF ON
PRECIPITATION REACHING THIS FAR EAST. SHOULD TIMING SPEED UP IN THE
SYSTEM...ITS POSSIBLE...BUT LOOKING LESS LIKELY.
THE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD
ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THE CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS TO DEEPEN. AT THE SURFACE...TWO AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...THE STANDARD FRONT RANGE
LOW...AND A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THE MAIN LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE PLAINS ACROSS TEXAS...WHILE THE TROUGH ENERGY WILL SWING NORTH
OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT RANGE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL ALSO PUSH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. NOW WHAT
DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN...MODELS ARE CERTAINLY SUGGESTING RAIN WILL BE
AROUND...ESPECIALLY AS THE ROCKIES LOW DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA...PROBABLY THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. BUT WITH THE
POSITION OF BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SPLITING NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE PLAINS...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS IS
LOW. IF THE FEATURES STRENGTHEN AND DEVELOP BEFORE REACHING THE
PLAINS...THEN CONFIDENCE IS BETTER...BUT IF NOT AS SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF...WE MIGHT SEE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HERE AND THERE AND
THATS IT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FAIRLY SEASONABLE IN THE 70S TO EVEN 80S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW DAYS. COLD FRONT IS LIKELY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BUT NOTHING DRASTIC
AS OF YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
AS OF 530 AM CDT...RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE KGRI/KEAR
AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE FORECAST MODELS THESE SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP AND BE IN THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AT ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...BUT SHOULD BE ABOVE
3K AGL AND THUS VFR WILL PREVAIL. WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO MVFR
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE ARE LOOKING
DRY BY AFTERNOON AND THEREAFTER. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
304 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
TODAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPANDING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BETWEEN 3 AM AND MID MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST PREVALENT THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOST FOCUSED/WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. THE SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES HAVE TAKEN RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL MODELS
LIKE THE HRRR AND WRF THAT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
REMAINING SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...ELECTED TO KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AT LEAST FOR NOW. NO MAJOR FORECAST MODEL GIVES ANYONE
MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL AND THUS EXPECT RAIN
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO PERHAPS AROUND 0.10 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH AGAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE MID 60S OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
ZONES.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL JUST BE SITTING OUT OVER CALIFORNIA
AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN
SEEING A DRY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD MONDAY MORNING...SPECIFICALLY IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SETUP. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FLORIDA STATE LINE WILL FINALLY
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS
REMAINED IN PLACE FOR SOME TIME NOW...WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OFF FROM
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WHILE IT SPINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH REALLY NO AFFECT ON
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE LOW BECOMES MORE CUTOFF OVER TIME...VERY WEAK RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP DISTURBANCES THAT ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS FAR ENOUGH WEST BY THE EARLY WORKWEEK. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT IS A CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AS MODELS ARE REALLY BACKING OFF ON
PRECIPITATION REACHING THIS FAR EAST. SHOULD TIMING SPEED UP IN THE
SYSTEM...ITS POSSIBLE...BUT LOOKING LESS LIKELY.
THE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD
ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THE CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS TO DEEPEN. AT THE SURFACE...TWO AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...THE STANDARD FRONT RANGE
LOW...AND A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THE MAIN LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE PLAINS ACROSS TEXAS...WHILE THE TROUGH ENERGY WILL SWING NORTH
OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT RANGE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL ALSO PUSH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. NOW WHAT
DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN...MODELS ARE CERTAINLY SUGGESTING RAIN WILL BE
AROUND...ESPECIALLY AS THE ROCKIES LOW DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA...PROBABLY THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. BUT WITH THE
POSITION OF BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SPLITING NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE PLAINS...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS IS
LOW. IF THE FEATURES STRENGTHEN AND DEVELOP BEFORE REACHING THE
PLAINS...THEN CONFIDENCE IS BETTER...BUT IF NOT AS SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF...WE MIGHT SEE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HERE AND THERE AND
THATS IT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FAIRLY SEASONABLE IN THE 70S TO EVEN 80S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW DAYS. COLD FRONT IS LIKELY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BUT NOTHING DRASTIC
AS OF YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AS OF
1230 AM WERE FOCUSED WEST OF KGRI AND KEAR. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT ARE TRACKING NORTH NORTHEAST COULD
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO KEAR AND THUS WILL CALL FOR A LEAST VICINITY
SHOWERS AT KEAR. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN BUT WE
COULD STILL CATCH A FEW AT LEAST NEAR BY SHOWERS EVEN IN KGRI AS
WE WORK CLOSER TO DAWN. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE BY
AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL REMAIN EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
VALID PERIOD AND MID CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO FOR MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE FOCUS WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE. NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 GENERALLY MORE LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL. A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO START FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THICKER CLOUD SHIELDS THAN ANTICIPATED WOULD CAUSE HIGH/LOW TEMPS
TO BE COOLER/WARMER THAN FORECASTED AND WILL ALSO LIMIT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS VERSUS SHOWERS. BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS...FORECAST PACKAGE REFLECTS ON
HOW THAT WILL PLAY OUT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY WOUND UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR SANTA BARBARA CALIFORNIA CREATING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE CLOUD DECK HAS ALLOWED FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NM. HIGH RES MODELS LEND TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND GENERALLY
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH IT WILL BE LESS ROBUST.
LACK OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS MORE SHOWERY...WHICH WILL REDUCE RAINFALL
RATES AND LIMIT ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LIKELY
REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A QUARTER
MILE AT TIMES.
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND KEEP THAT
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE PULL OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. WHILE THE
MODELS PAINT SOME HEAVIER QPFS ACROSS THE WEST ALONG WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY DUE TO COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. NASA SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW
FAIRLY DRY GROUNDS ACROSS THE AREA THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WITHSTAND DECENT RAINS. REDUCED RAINFALL RATES DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL MAKE IT EVEN HARDER TO HAVE
FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS
DEALS WITH STORMS...THE EAST WILL GET A PAUSE ON RAINS AND WILL
BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVER SW NM
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION FIELD
EAST...COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE HAVING
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP MOST OF THE
STATE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE
THURSDAY THAT WILL DRAG SOME OF THE MOISTURE FIELD WITH
IT...THOUGH EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THANKS THE LOW
DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...HELPING PUSH MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STATE WHILE CREATING
SOME BREEZY WINDS.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL CUT OFF SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE STATE FRIDAY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER TOP OF THE LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. NOT MUCH IF ANY
RAIN ANTICIPATED BUT YOU CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
24
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTN. LATEST HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST WILL COME LATE
THIS AFTN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME AREAS IN NEED OF RAIN
SHOULD RECEIVE POTENTIALLY WETTING RAINS TONIGHT.
IF THE RAIN DOES NOT COME TONIGHT...BEST RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL
BE ACROSS WESTERN NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MORE WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY
AND A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
MORE WET WEATHER WILL COME ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO INCH
EASTWARD. WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WILL AGAIN BE FAVORED WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. BUT THEN... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS AZ AND INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF NM.
WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY REACH 1 OR 2 INCHES. A DUSTING OF SNOW
IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ABOVE 11KFT.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UP TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES
WILL BE EXCELLENT...WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES RARELY FALLING BELOW 40
PERCENT.
STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES PAST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
THE LOW WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION AND PERHAPS
RETROGRADE OVER OLD MEXICO. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT
AT THIS TIME...IT DOES LOOK LIKE A DRIER TREND SHOULD START THURSDAY
FOR AT LEAST THE WEST AND PERHAPS FOR MORE OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WITH IT LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD OR BETTER ELSEWHERE.
VENT RATES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL PLUMMET
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN MTNS THANKS TO WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD.
POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NM THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WELL.
34
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM...WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS. KCQC CONTINUES TO SEE LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG...AND MUCH OF
EASTERN NM CONTINUES TO SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS. THESE CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND IF NOTHING ELSE...WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. AREAS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
COULD SEE FOG REDEVELOP THIS EVE AS WELL. STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIMIT TS POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND
EVE. MEANWHILE...TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. A LINE OF STORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AZ/NM BORDER AND SHIFT
EASTWARD...POTENTIALLY MAKING INTO THE RGV AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
SHORT...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY.
34
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 54 71 52 69 / 60 70 70 50
DULCE........................... 38 66 40 63 / 60 70 70 60
CUBA............................ 46 65 44 63 / 30 40 60 30
GALLUP.......................... 48 68 45 64 / 40 70 60 40
EL MORRO........................ 45 62 42 61 / 70 70 60 40
GRANTS.......................... 48 66 44 65 / 60 60 40 30
QUEMADO......................... 51 66 43 63 / 50 70 30 50
GLENWOOD........................ 49 69 48 68 / 70 70 60 40
CHAMA........................... 41 61 41 60 / 60 50 50 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 63 47 65 / 40 40 70 20
PECOS........................... 46 60 45 65 / 60 40 50 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 63 44 65 / 20 40 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 43 56 40 60 / 30 50 30 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 60 37 64 / 30 50 30 20
TAOS............................ 46 64 43 67 / 20 30 20 20
MORA............................ 44 60 42 66 / 30 40 20 10
ESPANOLA........................ 46 69 46 70 / 20 30 50 10
SANTA FE........................ 50 62 48 66 / 30 30 50 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 66 47 69 / 20 30 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 69 53 69 / 20 30 60 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 71 55 72 / 20 20 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 73 52 74 / 20 20 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 71 54 70 / 20 20 50 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 53 73 53 72 / 20 20 40 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 55 70 53 70 / 20 20 50 20
SOCORRO......................... 57 72 54 73 / 30 20 30 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 63 49 65 / 40 40 50 20
TIJERAS......................... 51 66 50 68 / 40 30 50 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 65 44 70 / 40 20 30 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 46 61 45 68 / 40 20 20 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 67 47 69 / 50 20 40 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 52 68 50 71 / 50 20 30 30
RUIDOSO......................... 46 60 45 64 / 70 50 40 40
CAPULIN......................... 45 63 41 71 / 20 20 0 10
RATON........................... 47 67 44 74 / 20 20 10 10
SPRINGER........................ 49 66 46 74 / 20 20 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 58 43 69 / 30 20 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 48 66 50 77 / 20 10 0 5
ROY............................. 46 60 46 73 / 30 20 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 50 65 50 78 / 30 20 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 50 64 49 75 / 30 20 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 50 68 52 78 / 40 20 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 50 64 50 74 / 60 20 0 5
PORTALES........................ 51 66 51 75 / 60 20 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 51 64 51 74 / 60 20 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 55 67 55 75 / 70 20 10 10
PICACHO......................... 51 64 49 71 / 60 30 20 20
ELK............................. 49 60 47 68 / 70 40 30 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1212 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM...WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS. KCQC CONTINUES TO SEE LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG...AND MUCH OF
EASTERN NM CONTINUES TO SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS. THESE CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND IF NOTHING ELSE...WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. AREAS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
COULD SEE FOG REDEVELOP THIS EVE AS WELL. STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIMIT TS POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND
EVE. MEANWHILE...TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. A LINE OF STORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AZ/NM BORDER AND SHIFT
EASTWARD...POTENTIALLY MAKING INTO THE RGV AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
SHORT...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARD NEW MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS IT DRAWS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH FROM OVER MEXICO.
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY DWINDLING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DIVING SOUTHWARD...WITH LIGHTNING IN THE
CORE OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AN INDICATION OF THE COLD
CORE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE.
AT THIS SAME TIME...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRAW NORTH
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH PWATS TRENDING UP. AT 00Z THE KABQ PWAT WAS
0.71"...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. 00Z MODEL
PWAT FORECASTS FOR KABQ SHOW MOISTURE PEAKING BETWEEN 12Z SUNDAY
AND 12Z MONDAY AROUND 0.85". SO WHILE MOISTURE TRENDS UP...
INSTABILITY IS TRENDING DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF DUE TO A
MUCH COOLER LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF...BUT DECENT SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF GARDEN VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS LIKELY. HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. LASTLY...AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN RATON...LAS VEGAS AND
RUIDOSO WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH TODAY DUE TO SUSTAINED UPSLOPE
FLOW AND CONTINUED RAIN-COOLING OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER.
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST MONDAY...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW...FORECAST TO BE OVER/NEAR LAS VEGAS NEVADA BY LATE DAY.
TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS
GO...WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVERTAKING THE
WESTERN HALF AND THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AZ. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A LOCK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25...WITH THE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WHERE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL RANGE FROM 40-50KTS. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS WILL FALL TO INCLUDE SOME OF OUR PEAKS ABOVE 11K FEET.
OTHERWISE...THE LOW WILL BE FILLING AS IT MOVES OVER AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
A WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THEN
TAKES A WESTWARD TURN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL AREAWIDE BY NEXT SUNDAY AT THE LATEST WITH RAIN CHANCES
DROPPING OUT OF THE FORECAST.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COOL AND WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO
INCLUDE WESTERN NM. A PERIOD OF HIGHER HUMIDITIES...THICK CLOUD
COVER...RAIN/STORMS...AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER CALIFORNIA IS DRAWING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM. WETTING RAINFALL...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM TODAY AND EXPAND
TO THE WEST TODAY SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.
EXPECT WAVES OF RAIN AND STORMS TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE STATE AGAIN
MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES
TO THE SE TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN. 5-DAY PRECIP TOTALS ON THE ORDER
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL AVERAGE 80 TO 100 PCT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH MIN VALUES HOVERING IN THE 40 TO 60 PCT RANGE. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOREST IN THE EAST WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
TEMPS MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH BENEATH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TRAVERSES THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SNOW ABOVE 11KFT. BEYOND THURSDAY...FORECAST MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO THE SE OF NM
THEN RETROGRADE WESTWARD BACK TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
REGARDLESS...THE SUMMER-LIKE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED FOR
THE REGION AND COOLER/MOIST FALL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
328 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARD NEW MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS IT DRAWS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH FROM OVER MEXICO.
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY DWINDLING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DIVING SOUTHWARD...WITH LIGHTNING IN THE
CORE OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AN INDICATION OF THE COLD
CORE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE.
AT THIS SAME TIME...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRAW NORTH
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH PWATS TRENDING UP. AT 00Z THE KABQ PWAT WAS
0.71"...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. 00Z MODEL
PWAT FORECASTS FOR KABQ SHOW MOISTURE PEAKING BETWEEN 12Z SUNDAY
AND 12Z MONDAY AROUND 0.85". SO WHILE MOISTURE TRENDS UP...
INSTABILITY IS TRENDING DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF DUE TO A
MUCH COOLER LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF...BUT DECENT SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF GARDEN VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS LIKELY. HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. LASTLY...AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN RATON...LAS VEGAS AND
RUIDOSO WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH TODAY DUE TO SUSTAINED UPSLOPE
FLOW AND CONTINUED RAIN-COOLING OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER.
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST MONDAY...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW...FORECAST TO BE OVER/NEAR LAS VEGAS NEVADA BY LATE DAY.
TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS
GO...WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVERTAKING THE
WESTERN HALF AND THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AZ. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A LOCK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25...WITH THE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WHERE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL RANGE FROM 40-50KTS. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS WILL FALL TO INCLUDE SOME OF OUR PEAKS ABOVE 11K FEET.
OTHERWISE...THE LOW WILL BE FILLING AS IT MOVES OVER AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
A WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THEN
TAKES A WESTWARD TURN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL AREAWIDE BY NEXT SUNDAY AT THE LATEST WITH RAIN CHANCES
DROPPING OUT OF THE FORECAST.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COOL AND WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO
INCLUDE WESTERN NM. A PERIOD OF HIGHER HUMIDITIES...THICK CLOUD
COVER...RAIN/STORMS...AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER CALIFORNIA IS DRAWING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM. WETTING RAINFALL...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM TODAY AND EXPAND
TO THE WEST TODAY SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.
EXPECT WAVES OF RAIN AND STORMS TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE STATE AGAIN
MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES
TO THE SE TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN. 5-DAY PRECIP TOTALS ON THE ORDER
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL AVERAGE 80 TO 100 PCT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH MIN VALUES HOVERING IN THE 40 TO 60 PCT RANGE. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOREST IN THE EAST WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
TEMPS MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH BENEATH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TRAVERSES THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SNOW ABOVE 11KFT. BEYOND THURSDAY...FORECAST MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO THE SE OF NM
THEN RETROGRADE WESTWARD BACK TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
REGARDLESS...THE SUMMER-LIKE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED FOR
THE REGION AND COOLER/MOIST FALL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MTS FREQUENTLY OBSCD FROM CONTDVD EWD. SW FLOW ALOFT OVER NM AS
STRONG UPPER LOW TRACKS TO NEAR KLAX BY 04/21Z. LOW LEVEL ELY
GRADIENT TO PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS NM WITH E-SELY
WND...GUSTY AT TIMES TO AROUND 30KT INTO THE RGV AND TO THE
CONTDVD. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AND RAIN FROM THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN EWD...WITH LCL TO AREAS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS
SPREADING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CONTDVD THROUGH 04/17Z. SHOWERS AND
ISOLD SHORT LIVED TSTMS STARTING TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL NM AT
04/05Z...AND HRRR INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND INTO NE NM BY 04/12Z. AFT 04/15Z...BEST
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE RGV...WHERE TSTMS
SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 77 53 73 49 / 20 40 60 60
DULCE........................... 69 45 67 45 / 40 50 60 70
CUBA............................ 68 48 66 47 / 30 30 40 60
GALLUP.......................... 74 48 70 45 / 20 30 70 60
EL MORRO........................ 71 46 66 43 / 40 70 70 70
GRANTS.......................... 72 48 69 44 / 50 60 60 60
QUEMADO......................... 68 51 66 47 / 30 50 70 50
GLENWOOD........................ 71 52 67 49 / 40 70 70 60
CHAMA........................... 67 44 65 44 / 40 40 50 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 49 66 49 / 60 40 40 70
PECOS........................... 61 48 62 47 / 70 60 40 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 69 46 69 46 / 50 20 30 30
RED RIVER....................... 61 42 59 42 / 60 30 40 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 63 39 63 39 / 60 30 50 30
TAOS............................ 67 44 68 43 / 30 20 30 30
MORA............................ 62 45 63 45 / 60 30 40 20
ESPANOLA........................ 66 47 71 46 / 40 20 30 60
SANTA FE........................ 63 49 66 49 / 60 30 30 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 64 47 67 47 / 60 30 30 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 54 69 54 / 60 40 30 70
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 55 70 55 / 50 30 20 60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 72 53 73 52 / 50 30 20 60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 71 55 72 54 / 50 30 20 60
LOS LUNAS....................... 73 55 73 53 / 60 40 20 70
RIO RANCHO...................... 71 55 71 54 / 50 30 30 70
SOCORRO......................... 74 56 74 54 / 60 60 20 60
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 50 64 51 / 70 50 30 70
TIJERAS......................... 62 49 66 50 / 60 40 30 70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 59 43 67 45 / 30 40 20 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 44 61 44 / 40 40 20 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 62 48 69 49 / 60 50 20 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 66 52 72 52 / 70 50 20 40
RUIDOSO......................... 57 45 61 49 / 80 70 30 40
CAPULIN......................... 60 47 65 47 / 30 20 20 5
RATON........................... 63 44 68 44 / 30 20 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 62 45 69 45 / 30 20 20 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 42 61 43 / 40 30 30 10
CLAYTON......................... 59 49 68 50 / 30 20 10 5
ROY............................. 55 47 59 47 / 30 30 20 10
CONCHAS......................... 62 51 66 51 / 50 30 20 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 50 65 50 / 40 30 20 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 60 50 66 51 / 60 40 20 5
CLOVIS.......................... 59 50 62 51 / 80 40 20 5
PORTALES........................ 61 52 63 50 / 80 40 20 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 61 52 64 51 / 60 40 20 5
ROSWELL......................... 61 53 64 54 / 70 50 20 10
PICACHO......................... 60 52 64 51 / 70 60 30 30
ELK............................. 58 50 60 49 / 70 70 40 40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MTS FREQUENTLY OBSCD FROM CONTDVD EWD. SW FLOW ALOFT OVER NM AS
STRONG UPPER LOW TRACKS TO NEAR KLAX BY 04/21Z. LOW LEVEL ELY
GRADIENT TO PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS NM WITH E-SELY
WND...GUSTY AT TIMES TO AROUND 30KT INTO THE RGV AND TO THE
CONTDVD. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AND RAIN FROM THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN EWD...WITH LCL TO AREAS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS
SPREADING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CONTDVD THROUGH 04/17Z. SHOWERS AND
ISOLD SHORT LIVED TSTMS STARTING TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL NM AT
04/05Z...AND HRRR INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND INTO NE NM BY 04/12Z. AFT 04/15Z...BEST
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE RGV...WHERE TSTMS
SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...849 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015...
.UPDATE...
WINDS WERE INCREASED IN THE ABQ METRO AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT HAS KEPT WINDS HIGH. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WAS ALSO INCREASED INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE HIGH POPS WERE RETAINED OVERNIGHT.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW HELPING FUEL TODAYS CROP OF STORMS.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO CA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
BEFORE TURNING E EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL BE DRAWN N EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING CONCERNS FOR FLASH
FLOODING. IMPACTS FROM THE STORM MAY LINGER THROUGH ALL OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY ACTIVE DAY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM WITH SHOWERS AND A
DECENT CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
MARGINALLY SEVERE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
NIGHT.
WEST COAST STORM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND DIVE S INTO
CA THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT TO THE W SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WEST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH NO ONE LOCATION CAN BE RULED OUT OF
GETTING A SHOWER. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL INCREASE AS WE
GO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE UNUSUALLY
DEEP STORM WILL TURN NE TOWARD LAS VEGAS NV THEN TURN SE INTO
AZ THEN NM BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO THIS POINT.
GFS SLOWLY MOVES THE LOW TO THE SE WHILE THE EUROPEAN DROPS IT
S THEN ACTUALLY RETROGRESSES THE LOW TO THE W...ALL THE WAY TO
THE PACIFIC. WILL GO WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. CHJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COOL AND WET PATTERN HAS SETTLED INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM TODAY
AND THIS WILL EXPAND WEST INTO WESTERN NM SUNDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF HIGHER HUMIDITIES...THICK CLOUD COVER...RAIN/STORMS...AND BELOW
NORMAL MAX TEMPS IS IN STORE THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL FORCE A DEEP TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM. THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAINFALL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL BE OVER
EASTERN NM THRU TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY
AND LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL. EXPECT WAVES OF RAIN
AND STORMS TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE STATE AGAIN MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE SE TOWARD THE
PERMIAN BASIN. 5-DAY PRECIP TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL AVERAGE 80 TO 100 PCT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH MIN VALUES HOVERING IN THE 40 TO 60 PCT RANGE. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOREST IN THE EAST WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
TEMPS MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH BENEATH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TRAVERSES THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SNOW ABOVE 11KFT. BEYOND THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO THE SE
OF NM AND/OR RETROGRADE WESTWARD BACK TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
EITHER WAY...AN END TO THE SUMMER-LIKE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS HAS
ENDED FOR THE REGION AND COOLER/MOIST FALL WEATHER IS HERE TO
STAY.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1035 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TOMORROW. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
AND A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1028 PM EDT MONDAY...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST
SATELLITE PICS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH
SOME BREAKS OVER NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
SOUTH. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL
PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OR FROST IN MOST AREAS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SEEING SOME LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST VERMONT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY FAIR WEATHER DAY FOR
TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
MID 60S IN THE WARMER PARTS OF OUR CWA ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN BE QUIET AND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AS AREA WILL MAINLY
BE CLOUDY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OUR WEST. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THINK WILL MAINLY
JUST HAVE CLOUDS FOR OUR AREA AND HAVE MENTIONED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND VERY WEAK DYNAMICS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO BE MILD WITH CLOUDS REMAINING OVER THE REGION
DESPITE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...SEASONAL EARLY FALL TEMPERATURES AND A
PERIODIC THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUED TO BE OFFERED FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION
ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE 7-DAY PERIOD.
GIVEN THIS SYSTEM IS OF MARITIME ORIGIN AND WITH MORE OF AN
EASTERLY (AS OPPOSED TO A SOUTHERLY) TRAJECTORY, THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS REALLY WON`T CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH BY NEXT WEEKEND. THUS
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 35 TO
45 DEGREE RANGE STILL LOOK REASONABLY ON TRACK. TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY MAY ENCROACH FROM
THE NORTH WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE
SOMEWHAT AT ODDS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM, WITH LATEST TRENDS OF THE GFS BACKING OFF SOMEWHAT ON
ITS EARLIER SURGE. WILL TAKE THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET AT THIS
POINT, OFFERING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE DISCREPANCIES.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR MIST AT MPV.
METARS AND INFRARED SATELLITE SHOW BKN/OVC VFR DECK (BASES
050-070) ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT RUT. LOWER-LEVEL RH PROGS
FROM THE LATEST RAP MODEL SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS INTRODUCE SOME QUESTION AS TO FOG/MIST
POTENTIAL. IT`S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THE CLOUDS MAY HAMPER MUCH IF
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. I`VE TRENDED MPV TAF TO A MORE OPTIMISTIC
VISBY FORECAST (MVFR/IFR) WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT SOME
THINNING OF THIS CLOUD BANK ON TUESDAY BUT IT MAY BE SLOW TO DO
SO. WINDS LIGHT /TERRAIN- DRIVEN.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF REGIONAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK 07-13Z EACH DAY.
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MFVR CIGS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHEST SHOWER
COVERAGE 12Z-20Z FRIDAY.
12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TOMORROW. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
AND A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 707 PM EDT MONDAY...BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE PICS AND
OBSERVATIONS...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS
UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS WELL FOR THIS EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES
TO GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. NOT EXPECTING VERY MUCH FROST OR FOG SINCE
WILL HAVE SOME CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
MORE MILD THEN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS...VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMALS WITH MINS IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY FAIR WEATHER DAY FOR
TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
MID 60S IN THE WARMER PARTS OF OUR CWA ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN BE QUIET AND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AS AREA WILL MAINLY
BE CLOUDY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OUR WEST. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THINK WILL MAINLY
JUST HAVE CLOUDS FOR OUR AREA AND HAVE MENTIONED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND VERY WEAK DYNAMICS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO BE MILD WITH CLOUDS REMAINING OVER THE REGION
DESPITE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...SEASONAL EARLY FALL TEMPERATURES AND A
PERIODIC THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUED TO BE OFFERED FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION
ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE 7-DAY PERIOD.
GIVEN THIS SYSTEM IS OF MARITIME ORIGIN AND WITH MORE OF AN
EASTERLY (AS OPPOSED TO A SOUTHERLY) TRAJECTORY, THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS REALLY WON`T CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH BY NEXT WEEKEND. THUS
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 35 TO
45 DEGREE RANGE STILL LOOK REASONABLY ON TRACK. TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY MAY ENCROACH FROM
THE NORTH WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE
SOMEWHAT AT ODDS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM, WITH LATEST TRENDS OF THE GFS BACKING OFF SOMEWHAT ON
ITS EARLIER SURGE. WILL TAKE THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET AT THIS
POINT, OFFERING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE DISCREPANCIES.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR MIST AT MPV.
METARS AND INFRARED SATELLITE SHOW BKN/OVC VFR DECK (BASES
050-070) ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT RUT. LOWER-LEVEL RH PROGS
FROM THE LATEST RAP MODEL SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS INTRODUCE SOME QUESTION AS TO FOG/MIST
POTENTIAL. IT`S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THE CLOUDS MAY HAMPER MUCH IF
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. I`VE TRENDED MPV TAF TO A MORE OPTIMISTIC
VISBY FORECAST (MVFR/IFR) WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT SOME
THINNING OF THIS CLOUD BANK ON TUESDAY BUT IT MAY BE SLOW TO DO
SO. WINDS LIGHT /TERRAIN- DRIVEN.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF REGIONAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK 07-13Z EACH DAY.
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MFVR CIGS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHEST SHOWER
COVERAGE 12Z-20Z FRIDAY.
12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
122 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LIFE THREATENING FLOODING MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
PERSISTENT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FLUNG INTO THE CAROLINAS BY A
POWERFUL UPPER LOW. A DRYING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY.
RIVER FLOODING WILL WORSEN IN THE UPCOMING NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD LIKE TO
EMPHASIZE THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE UPCOMING FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IN
SOME CASES...IT MAY BE UNPRECEDENTED IN THIS AREA SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN. THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED OR IN MANY AREAS FLOODED
FROM WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS...IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND OVER A FOOT IN A FEW SPOTS...IN THE LAST 24 TO 36
HOURS. THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF A FEW SINKHOLES ACROSS
THE AREA.
THE ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN MAY
CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ON A LARGE SCALE.
ROADS...BRIDGES AND STRUCTURES WILL ALL BE VULNERABLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS
LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. INFRASTRUCTURE THAT NORMALLY
CONTROLS THE FLOW OF WATER SUCH AS DAMS...LEVEES AND CULVERTS MAY
FAIL DUE TO THE HIGH AND STRONG FORCES OF RISING WATER.
BE SURE ALL STORM DRAINS ARE FREE OF DEBRIS...THIS MAY HELP TO
DIMINISH THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY FLOODS IN YOUR COMMUNITY. WE ARE
EXPECTING MANY ROADS WILL BECOME UNSAFE FOR TRAVEL. IN
ADDITION...OBEY ALL ROAD CLOSURE AND DETOUR SIGNS...THEY HAVE
BEEN POSTED FOR YOUR SAFETY. DO NOT CROSS ANY ROADWAY THAT IS
COVERED BY FLOWING WATER...IT MAY BE UNSAFE FOR TRAVEL.IF YOU DO
NOT NEED TO TRAVEL...STAY OFF THE ROADS. IF YOU LIVE NEAR STREAMS
OR RETENTION PONDS...YOU MAY WANT TO CONSIDER A SAFER PLACE TO
RETREAT SHOULD YOU NEED TO EVACUATE DUE TO RISING WATER. REMEMBER
NIGHTTIME FLOODING IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS SINCE YOU WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO SEE THE RAPIDITY OF THE WATER RISE.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WAS HELPING TO
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER N. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAY BE
EXTENDED INTO MONDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH
AND THIS COUPLED WITH SATURATED TO FLOODED GROUND WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN SOME TREES AND POWER LINES. THE RISK WILL
INCREASE AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO BE
SPOTTY...BUT STILL HEAVY IN PLACES. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN...COINCIDING WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...HAS SHIFTED JUST O
THE S AND W OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN THIS EVE. THIS MODEL IS CONFIRMING OUR PREVIOUS
THINKING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN BEGINNING TO MAKE A SHIFT BACK
TO THE N OVERNIGHT. WILL SHOW THIS TREND IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND THE HIGHEST QPF RETURNING TO THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE GRAND STRAND LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HISTORIC AND LIFE THREATENING FLOODING
EXPECTED.
DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL CREATING A VERY FOCUSED AND INTENSE
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIGHT NOW THE
EXTREME RAINS ARE SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. EVEN IN ITS
FORMATIVE STAGES LAST EVENING THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER LEAD TO SOME
TERRIFYING RAINFALL RATES AND SERIOUS FLOODING MOST NOTABLY IN
LITTLE RIVER/NORTH MYRTLE BEACH AREA AS WELL AS PARTS OF DARLINGTON
COUNTY. REFER TO PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT/PNSILM FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS WELL AS LOCAL STORM REPORTS/LSRILM FOR FLOODING INFO.
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THIS CHANNEL THE LOCAL RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN
IMPRESSIVE. DURING THE HOUR OF 17Z KILM REPORTED 0.31" OF RAIN IN
16 MINUTES. SUCH RAINFALL RATES ARE OFTEN VASTLY UNDERDONE IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. AND SPEAKING OF MODEL UNCERTAINTIES GUIDANCE ALSO OFTEN
STRUGGLES WITH HANDLING OF SYSTEMS THAT ARE SO DEEPLY CUT OFF FROM
STEERING FLOW. THAT SAID THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
OF THE HEAVIEST QPF BUT THIS WILL REALLY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SLIGHT
REDUCTION OVER FAR NW ZONES (THOUGH THE WRF BEGS TO DIFFER). IT IS
IN THESE ZONES WHERE THE LOWER PORTION OF "ONLY" 3-5 INCHES MAY
FALL. HOWEVER THE VERY NARROW AND FOCUSED NATURE OF THE RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO A STRONG GRADIENT IN QPF AS ONE HEADS INLAND.
AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD THIS LOW LEVEL FIRE HOSE OF
MOISTURE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE LOW...MOVING NORTHWARD AND ALSO
TAKING ON AN EVENTUAL NE TO SW ORIENTATION...ALL WHILE MAINTAINING A
CONNECTION WITH JOAQUIN. IN ADDITION TO THE SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE OVERALL SENSE OF TIMING, WHICH IS
USUALLY A GOOD CALL WITH CUTOFF LOWS. IN FACT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE END OF THE EVENT, WHICH WILL BE IN THE CAPE
FEAR/WILMINGTON AREAS LAST INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
GENERAL FORECAST QPF CALLS FOR 3-5" ACROSS MOST OF NW AND NORTHERN
SC COUNTIES BUT 5-7" CAPE FEAR COAST DUE LONG PERIOD OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE ADDITIONAL 5-7" AND LIKELY 7-10" SRN GTOWN AND
WILLIAMSBURG LIKELY. THESE AMOUNTS CAN EASILY BEEN A MONTH`S WORTH
MOST TIMES OF THE YEAR IN AND OF THEMSELVES BUT FOLLOWING THE MAJOR
FLOODING ISSUES FROM YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL THE 3 DAY TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
SCENARIO. THIS WILL HOLD MOST TRUE WHERE MESOSCALE PROCESSES (WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED THIS FAR OUT) LEAD TO THE LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER
RAIN TOTALS AS OCCURRED IN PLACES LIKE LITTLE RIVER LAST EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE
OVERALL GREATLY IMPROVED AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THE LONG TERM. A DEEP DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE UPPER
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF OUR WET WEATHER EJECTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODERATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KTS OR HIGHER...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...THUS WARRANTING A WIND ADVISORY.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE
AN PUSH INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
MIXTURE OF RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT...INCLUDING VFR...MVFR...AND IFR. AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASE AND THE AXIS OF RAINFALL PUSHES EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE A DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS
TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/TEMPO IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS...PATCHY FOG...AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...SHOWERS WILL SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH DETERIORATED
CONDITIONS CONTINUING...DUE MAINLY TO LOW CIGS AND ANY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...WITH MVFR/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY WITH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 AM SUNDAY...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS WHILE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WE HAVE
INCREASED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS TO 25 TO 30 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE EASTERLY. A STRONG AND PERSISTENT 9 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY
SWELL IN COMBINATION WITH THE WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
7 TO 11 FT RANGE AND AS HIGH AS 12 OR 13 FT NEAR FRYING PAN
SHOALS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A STRONG GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ON
SUNDAY BETWEEN A HUGE HIGH NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND STATES AND THE
WELL OFFSHORE JOAQUIN AS WELL AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ONLY VERY
SLOWLY DEVELOPING JUST OFF SC/GA COASTLINES. BY MONDAY JOAQUIN
WILL BE ACCELERATING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST BUT THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH IS RELATIVELY MAINTAINED AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIVING
THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW TO EXIT. SEAS FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY, SWAN, AND WNA GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...WE
EXPECT DECREASING WINDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO LESS
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1100 PM SATURDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIDE AT ALL THE BEACHES AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 1 AM AT THE BEACHES AND
3 AM IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING WITH
WATER RUNNING WELL UP ONTO THE BEACHES AND RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
BEACH EROSION.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ054-056.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...SGL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
930 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING WAS
PRODUCING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ALONG WITH A GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY
FOR MOST OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE
IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR NORTH...FROM CROSBY EAST TO ROLLA. A POCKET OF GENERALLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS EXISTS SOUTH OF THIS AREA...UNTIL REACHING SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WERE AGAIN OBSERVED...BUT SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDS/FOG. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED AT BEACH WITH VISIBILITY AT 4SM. THE LATEST HRRR
ADVERTISES LOW VSBYS EXPANDING IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 09Z-
15Z TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IF TRENDS CONTINUE PER LATEST HRRR.
THE AREA OF CLOUDS IN THE FAR NORTH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY...AND THEN APPROACH BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN BY 12Z TUESDAY.
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CENTRAL IN THE MORNING WITH A
RETURN TO A SUNNY SKY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TWO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE FIRST AREA RESIDES IN THE NORTH...CURRENTLY NEAR THE
BORDER. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS/BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OF THE
RAP13/HRRR SHIFT THIS AREA BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RAP13/HRRR ARE INITIALIZING THE
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NOW...AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST.
THE SECOND AREA OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER ANY CLEARING MAY BE BRIEF AS FOG IS EXPECTED
IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA PER LATEST HRRR...AND CLOUDS MENTIONED
ABOVE FROM THE NORTH MAY REACH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY.
ADJUSTED SKY GRID UPWARD FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY MENTION
NORTH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR NOW SOUTHWEST WILL SUFFICE
AND WILL LOOK AT THIS AGAIN WITH THE HRRR LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CLOUDS VERY SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH. SLOW BUT STEADY CLEARING
CENTRAL AND NORTH. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S
BUT REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME FOG ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT 33-36 NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH 53-55 AND 60 TO 65 SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER
MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AT UPPER LEVELS...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN
PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE US
SOUTHWEST AND 4-CORNERS REGION WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ROCKIES RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWS IT INTO THE ROCKIES...AS
THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE US SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO INCORPORATE INTO THE
MORE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES. THE BEGINNINGS OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MERGES WITH THE SOUTHWEST LOW THAT
CONTINUES TO MERGE INTO THE WESTERLIES. THIS MERGING WILL BRING
PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO NORTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SOUTH-NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS - AND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE WHOLE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENDING FROM CENTRAL TO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
ENOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR FOR A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARM DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
DRY...BREEZY...AND COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS OF 55 TO 65.
AFTER A COOL MORNING FRIDAY...WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE 70S IN THE WEST FRIDAY...AND OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
CONCERN FOR THE REST OF MONDAY NIGHT IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO KISN/KMOT 09Z-16Z TUESDAY...AND
FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KDIK PRODUCING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
BETWEEN 09Z-16Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KBIS AND
KJMS WITH A POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS PERIOD NEAR 12Z TUESDAY. HOWEVER
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF MVFR CIGS FOR KBIS/KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
639 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TWO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE FIRST AREA RESIDES IN THE NORTH...CURRENTLY NEAR THE
BORDER. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS/BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OF THE
RAP13/HRRR SHIFT THIS AREA BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RAP13/HRRR ARE INITIALIZING THE
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NOW...AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST.
THE SECOND AREA OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER ANY CLEARING MAY BE BRIEF AS FOG IS EXPECTED
IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA PER LATEST HRRR...AND CLOUDS MENTIONED
ABOVE FROM THE NORTH MAY REACH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY.
ADJUSTED SKY GRID UPWARD FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY MENTION
NORTH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR NOW SOUTHWEST WILL SUFFICE
AND WILL LOOK AT THIS AGAIN WITH THE HRRR LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CLOUDS VERY SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH. SLOW BUT STEADY CLEARING
CENTRAL AND NORTH. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S
BUT REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME FOG ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT 33-36 NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH 53-55 AND 60 TO 65 SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER
MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AT UPPER LEVELS...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN
PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE US
SOUTHWEST AND 4-CORNERS REGION WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ROCKIES RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWS IT INTO THE ROCKIES...AS
THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE US SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO INCORPORATE INTO THE
MORE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES. THE BEGINNINGS OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MERGES WITH THE SOUTHWEST LOW THAT
CONTINUES TO MERGE INTO THE WESTERLIES. THIS MERGING WILL BRING
PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO NORTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SOUTH-NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS - AND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE WHOLE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENDING FROM CENTRAL TO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
ENOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR FOR A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARM DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
DRY...BREEZY...AND COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS OF 55 TO 65.
AFTER A COOL MORNING FRIDAY...WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE 70S IN THE WEST FRIDAY...AND OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...CONCERN IS FOR MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO
KISN/KMOT 06Z-16Z TUESDAY AND PATCHY FOG/IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING
AT KDIK FROM 09Z-16Z TUESDAY. THIS HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT KBIS AND KJMS WITH A POSSIBLE MVFR
PERIOD NEAR 12Z TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE NOT MENTIONED THIS IN
THE TAFS AS THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE CLOUDS IN NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA REACHING INTO KBIS/KJMS TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
NOT UNEXPECTED THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED
INTO THE RRV...TO MORE ISOLATED -RW OR SPRINKLES. EXTENSIVE MID
CLOUDS AND A FEED OF ISOLD SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THRU THE AFTN/EVE.
A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS NR SIOUX FALLS AND HURON MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND COULD SKIRT THE FAR SE FCST AREA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE. PATCH IS MORE TOWARD WATERTOWN-ALEXANDRIA THOUGH.
OVERALL MINOR TWEEKS MADE TO POPS AND TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY INTO MONDAY AND
TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS INITIALIZING SOME
LIGHT QPF TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF US THIS MORNING...SO WILL
FOLLOW.
FOR TODAY...THE HRRR INDICATES THAT SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT SOME AREAS COULD GET A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO WILL GO WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. PWATS
WILL APPROACH 1 INCH LATER TODAY IN THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE S/SE AND IT SHOULD BE BREEZY IN THE VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS
AROUND.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A
SFC BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION...SO WILL MENTION SOME LOW POPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE FAR NORTH...ALTHOUGH RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN NW
MN...OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRYING COLUMN AND SUNSHINE DEVELOPING WITH
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S WITH FAVORABLE WEST WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID 30S NORTH AND AROUND 40 SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AT LEAST IN THE NORTH AND WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
POTENTIAL.
ON TUESDAY...IT WILL BE DRY AND A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO WESTERN MN.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES AT TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH AN OVERALL WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORT
WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND 500MB RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WARMER TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MAINLY DEALING WITH SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS AROUND. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT
ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL HIT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL NOT
MENTION THEM AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL START TO TURN AROUND TO THE
SSW ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT MORE SO FOR KDVL/KGFK/KFAR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1024 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
COORD WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND MADE CHANGES TO POPS...MAINLY
TO UP THEM SOME. BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHTH RAIN
SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE RRV. COVERAGE A BIT HIGHER THAN MOST
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE....BUT ALSO ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AS SUB CLOUD
LAYER AIRMASS IS STILL PRETTY DRY. BUT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT
A HIGH CHANCE TYPE RANGE ALONG THE BAND. MAIN SHORT WAVE IN
NEBRASKA WITH PRECIP TO SIOUX FALLS AREA MOVING NORTHEAST AND THAT
DOES APPEAR TO IMPACT MAINLY NE SD INTO SW MN LATER THIS AFTN/EVE.
DID KEEP THE POPS INTO THE AFTN AND EVE AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE RRV AND NW MN. TEMPS ARE TRICKY.
WE ARE GETTING SOME WARM ADVECTION....BUT CLOUDS WILL HAMPER FOR
SURE. SHORT RANGE MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM AND WILL
TONE DOWN A BIT AND KEEP ALL IN THE 50S TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY INTO MONDAY AND
TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS INITIALIZING SOME
LIGHT QPF TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF US THIS MORNING...SO WILL
FOLLOW.
FOR TODAY...THE HRRR INDICATES THAT SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT SOME AREAS COULD GET A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO WILL GO WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. PWATS
WILL APPROACH 1 INCH LATER TODAY IN THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE S/SE AND IT SHOULD BE BREEZY IN THE VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS
AROUND.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A
SFC BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION...SO WILL MENTION SOME LOW POPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE FAR NORTH...ALTHOUGH RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN NW
MN...OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRYING COLUMN AND SUNSHINE DEVELOPING WITH
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S WITH FAVORABLE WEST WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID 30S NORTH AND AROUND 40 SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AT LEAST IN THE NORTH AND WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
POTENTIAL.
ON TUESDAY...IT WILL BE DRY AND A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO WESTERN MN.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES AT TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH AN OVERALL WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORT
WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND 500MB RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WARMER TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY...SHIFTING SW LATER TONIGHT NEAR A SFC TROUGH. THERE COULD
BE A FEW SHOWERS TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS WITH
COVERAGE LOW.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
651 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY INTO MONDAY AND
TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS INITIALIZING SOME
LIGHT QPF TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF US THIS MORNING...SO WILL
FOLLOW.
FOR TODAY...THE HRRR INDICATES THAT SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT SOME AREAS COULD GET A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO WILL GO WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. PWATS
WILL APPROACH 1 INCH LATER TODAY IN THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE S/SE AND IT SHOULD BE BREEZY IN THE VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS
AROUND.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A
SFC BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION...SO WILL MENTION SOME LOW POPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE FAR NORTH...ALTHOUGH RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN NW
MN...OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRYING COLUMN AND SUNSHINE DEVELOPING WITH
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S WITH FAVORABLE WEST WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID 30S NORTH AND AROUND 40 SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AT LEAST IN THE NORTH AND WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
POTENTIAL.
ON TUESDAY...IT WILL BE DRY AND A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO WESTERN MN.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES AT TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH AN OVERALL WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORT
WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND 500MB RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WARMER TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY...SHIFTING SW LATER TONIGHT NEAR A SFC TROUGH. THERE COULD
BE A FEW SHOWERS TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS WITH
COVERAGE LOW.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
335 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY INTO MONDAY AND
TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS INITIALIZING SOME
LIGHT QPF TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF US THIS MORNING...SO WILL
FOLLOW.
FOR TODAY...THE HRRR INDICATES THAT SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT SOME AREAS COULD GET A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO WILL GO WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. PWATS
WILL APPROACH 1 INCH LATER TODAY IN THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE S/SE AND IT SHOULD BE BREEZY IN THE VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS
AROUND.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A
SFC BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION...SO WILL MENTION SOME LOW POPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE FAR NORTH...ALTHOUGH RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN NW
MN...OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRYING COLUMN AND SUNSHINE DEVELOPING WITH
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S WITH FAVORABLE WEST WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID 30S NORTH AND AROUND 40 SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AT LEAST IN THE NORTH AND WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
POTENTIAL.
ON TUESDAY...IT WILL BE DRY AND A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO WESTERN MN.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES AT TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH AN OVERALL WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORT
WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND 500MB RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WARMER TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
VFR CIGS OVER EASTERN ND WITH HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE VALLEY ON EAST.
SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES WITH MOISTURE DECREASING OVER
THE WEEKEND. REMAINS DRY MOST OF THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SHIFTING SOUTH
OF THE AREA TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT UNDER EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT POCKETS OF CLEARING WITH FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES A TAD HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID 50S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL STAY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US
WILL MOVE OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WARMED TEMPERATURES A BIT...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. COULD GET
A LITTLE 500MB RIPPLE WITH SOME CLOUDS...BUT HAVE NO PRECIP
MENTIONED THROUGH MID WEEK. SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...DRIVING COLD FRONT THROUGH CWA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
BLENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA
REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...KEEPING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE NAM AND RAP ARE RANGE
FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL OVER THE
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN TODAY...AND PERHAPS IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD VARY AND BECOME BRIEFLY
IFR ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/04/15
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
252 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES WITH MOISTURE DECREASING OVER
THE WEEKEND. REMAINS DRY MOST OF THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SHIFTING SOUTH
OF THE AREA TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT UNDER EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT POCKETS OF CLEARING WITH FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES A TAD HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID 50S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL STAY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US
WILL MOVE OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WARMED TEMPERATURES A BIT...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. COULD GET
A LITTLE 500MB RIPPLE WITH SOME CLOUDS...BUT HAVE NO PRECIP
MENTIONED THROUGH MID WEEK. SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...DRIVING COLD FRONT THROUGH CWA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
BLENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AREAS OF CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WV.
MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...KEEPING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
DESPITE OF AREAS OF CLEARING...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE NAM
AND RAP ARE RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE
ENOUGH VENTILATION TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPING AT MOST PLACES.
EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR UNDER DENSE FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER AREAS WHERE THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES OVERNIGHT.
WILL SEE IMPROVING CIG AND VISBY VALUES BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AS
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS COULD VARY FROM
FORECAST. FOG MAY BE MORE PREVALENT IF CLEARING OCCURS AND
GRADIENTS RELAX.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/04/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H M H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
SOME IFR IN LOW STRATUS CEILINGS COULD LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRYING TREND CONTINUES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
231 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES WITH MOISTURE DECREASING OVER
THE WEEKEND. REMAINS DRY MOST OF THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM AS
ATMOSPHERE OVER UNDERGOING A MODEST DRYING TREND OVER THE CWA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAINLY DUE TO EXITING MOISTURE PLUME AND
ENHANCEMENT OF DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW. LOWERED POPS AND ADJUSTED
TEMP AND DEWPOINT FIELDS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEST CLEARING
TREND. EAST FACING SLOPES IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT LEAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US
WILL MOVE OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WARMED TEMPERATURES A BIT...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. COULD GET
A LITTLE 500MB RIPPLE WITH SOME CLOUDS...BUT HAVE NO PRECIP
MENTIONED THROUGH MID WEEK. SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...DRIVING COLD FRONT THROUGH CWA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
BLENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AREAS OF CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WV.
MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...KEEPING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
DESPITE OF AREAS OF CLEARING...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE NAM
AND RAP ARE RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE
ENOUGH VENTILATION TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPING AT MOST PLACES.
EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR UNDER DENSE FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER AREAS WHERE THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES OVERNIGHT.
WILL SEE IMPROVING CIG AND VISBY VALUES BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AS
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS COULD VARY FROM
FORECAST. FOG MAY BE MORE PREVALENT IF CLEARING OCCURS AND
GRADIENTS RELAX.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/04/15
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L L M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L L L L H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
SOME IFR IN LOW STRATUS CEILINGS COULD LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRYING TREND CONTINUES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
123 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES WITH MOISTURE DECREASING OVER
THE WEEKEND. REMAINS DRY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM AS
ATMOSPHERE OVER UNDERGOING A MODEST DRYING TREND OVER THE CWA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAINLY DUE TO EXITING MOISTURE PLUME AND
ENHANCEMENT OF DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW. LOWERED POPS AND ADJUSTED
TEMP AND DEWPOINT FIELDS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEST CLEARING
TREND. EAST FACING SLOPES IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT LEAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SE CONUS GRADUALLY FILLS
AND ABSORBS BACK INTO THE OVERALL 500MB PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE THEN DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH THINGS CONTINUING TO DRY OUT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LOWS A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER LINGERING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. COULD GET
A LITTLE 500MB RIPPLE WITH SOME CLOUDS...BUT HAVE NO PRECIP
MENTIONED THROUGH MID WEEK. SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...DRIVING COLD FRONT THROUGH CWA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
BLENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AREAS OF CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WV.
MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...KEEPING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
DESPITE OF AREAS OF CLEARING...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE NAM
AND RAP ARE RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE
ENOUGH VENTILATION TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPING AT MOST PLACES.
EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR UNDER DENSE FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER AREAS WHERE THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES OVERNIGHT.
WILL SEE IMPROVING CIG AND VISBY VALUES BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AS
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS COULD VARY FROM
FORECAST. FOG MAY BE MORE PREVALENT IF CLEARING OCCURS AND
GRADIENTS RELAX.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/04/15
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L L M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L L L L H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
SOME IFR IN LOW STRATUS CEILINGS COULD LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRYING TREND CONTINUES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/JW
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
EARLIER LIGHT RAIN THAT AFFECTED AREA AIRPORTS HAS
DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR CSV WHERE
VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT IFR TO LIFR
CIGS AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH 15-16Z WITH IFR VIS ALSO AT CSV.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
6-11KTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS YET ANOTHER RAIN BLOB...WHICH IS A
VERY SCIENTIFIC METEOROLOGICAL TERM BY THE WAY...SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUNS...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE PLATEAU. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS UPWARD FOR THIS EVENING ACCORDINGLY WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH MAV AND MET MOS INDICATE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE INCORPORATED THIS INTO GRIDS/ZONES. REST OF
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
OF NOTE...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AS GFS IS NEARLY
30 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 80S. THIS IS
APPARENTLY DUE TO SOME PRONOUNCED 5-7 DEGREE WARMING OF 850MB
TEMPS. IN CONTRAST...THE NAM STRUGGLES TO WARM US INTO THE 70S ON
SUNDAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER STILL ANTICIPATED
TOMORROW...GFS SEEMS OUT TO LUNCH BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD
COMPROMISE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS YET ANOTHER RAIN BLOB...WHICH IS A
VERY SCIENTIFIC METEOROLOGICAL TERM BY THE WAY...SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUNS...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH ACTIVITY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE PLATEAU. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THIS EVENING WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH MAV AND MET MOS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY
RISE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE INCORPORATE THIS INTO GRIDS/ZONES. REST
OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
OF NOTE...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AS GFS IS NEARLY
30 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 80S. THIS IS
APPARENTLY DUE TO SOME PRONOUNCED 5-7 DEGREE WARMING OF 850MB
TEMPS. IN CONTRAST...THE NAM STRUGGLES TO WARM US INTO THE 70S ON
SUNDAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER STILL ANTICIPATED ON
SUNDAY...GFS SEEMS OUT TO LUNCH...BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD
COMPROMISE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE IN TERMS OF THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THAT UPPER
LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SW GA AND THOUGH THE POSITION OF THE
LOW WONT MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE TROUGH AXIS
ORIENTATION WILL. IN FACT...IT WILL GO FROM A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
NW- SE TILT...TO A W-E CONFIGURATION BY SUNDAY MORNING. WE ALREADY
SEE MILDER TEMPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC. THIS WARMER
AREA WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY BUT I CANNOT JUSTIFY THE AGGRESSIVE
WARMUP THAT THE GFS ELUDES TOWARD. SO...FOR TEMPS I WILL GO WITH A
GFS AND NAM BLEND. THE GFS LOOKS WAY TO WARM ON SUNDAY DESPITE THE
HEIGHT RISES. CLOUDS SHOULD STILL BE HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ON SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO
RUN TOO WARM ON HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AS WELL.
FOR PRECIP...WE DEFINITELY BE TRANSITIONING FROM A WEAK DEFORMATION
AREA TO MORE OF A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT SETUP. FROM EAST TO WEST.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND TRAIL
THAT OFF TO 40 POPS FAR WEST. MAY NEED TO GO A LITTLE HIGHER AS
THE4PM ISSUANCE APPROACHES. OTW...1/2 TO 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE COMMONPLACE ALONG THE PLATEAU FOR TONIGHT...A QUARTER INCH
CENTRAL AREAS AND A TENTH FAR WEST.
LOWER POPS FOR TOMORROW AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
MID STATE AND THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE MORE PROGRESSIVELY TOWARD
THE EAST. PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL RETURN BY MONDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGING TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR TUES
THROUGH THU. THE EURO MODEL FLATTENS THE RIDGE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
THE GFS. WILL THEREFORE BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE EXT...ON SAT...MODELS ON BOARD WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. WILL UP POPS AT THAT POINT TO THE 30 PERCENT
AREA. TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 55 76 59 80 / 80 30 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 53 76 57 80 / 50 20 10 0
CROSSVILLE 56 73 56 74 / 100 30 20 10
COLUMBIA 53 75 57 80 / 80 30 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 53 74 58 79 / 70 30 10 10
WAVERLY 53 75 57 80 / 40 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1257 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA AT KLBB AND KPVW THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
THIS EVENING. ALSO CIGS COULD DROP TO THE TOP OF THE MVFR
CATEGORY...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT IT WILL BE BRIEF. JH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/
AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD -SHRA WERE APPROACHING KLBB AND KPVW FROM THE
WEST. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL LAST
UNTIL MID-MORNING WHERE A LULL WILL ENSUE...BEFORE POSSIBLE RE-
GENERATION SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
FOR A -SHRA PREVAILING MENTION AT KLBB AND KPVW UNTIL MID-
MORNING...WHERE THEREAFTER NOT TOO SURE WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION
WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND BKN-OVC VFR DECKS /WITH PERHAPS SCT
DURING THE LULL PERIOD/ WILL ENDURE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE UA RIDGE HAS EXITED THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UA
LOW TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS NRN CALI. THIS UA LOW WILL NOT ONLY
PROMOTE THE SHARPENING OF THE SW FLOW ALOFT /WHICH IS AIDING IN
STREAMING PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN NEARBY SFC LEE
TROUGHING AND LOWERED 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS. LOOKING AT THE SFC...A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME IS KEEPING PWATS AOA 1.00 INCH ACROSS
THE CWA...WHILST A 15-25 KT LLJ CRANKS AWAY THIS MORNING THUS
RESULTING IN ADEQUATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. IT IS THEREFORE NOT
SURPRISING TO SEE AN ONGOING BATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM ERN NM TO ACROSS THE WEST SOUTH
PLAINS...AND NE TO ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE...LEAVING PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES DRY PER 07Z RADAR ANALYSIS. THE TTU
MESONET REPORTED A FEW CITIES RECEIVING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT SINCE THIS SWATH OF
RAINFALL HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES SINCE LAST
NIGHT...TOTALS OF A HALF-INCH UP TO AROUND 1.00 INCH OR SO IS MORE
REPRESENTATIVE. MOTORIST ARE THEREFORE URGED TO APPROACH LOW-LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH CAUTION.
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
PRECIP SITUATION...AND AS SUCH SHOWS THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EWRD TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
ENDURE...WITH A NOTABLE LULL OCCURRING BY MID-MORNING. THIS LULL MAY
NOT LAST VERY LONG AS THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS HINT AT AN 80+ KT
250 MB JET MAX NEARING THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN AND
HENCE...PROVIDE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO RE-GENERATE STORMS MORE
SO FOR LOCALES ON THE CAPROCK /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER/.
THIS JET MAX WILL BE EXITING/WANING BY TONIGHT THOUGH LINGERING
STORMS ARE SHOWN TO OCCUR NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. IT IS INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING EWRD TO PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY PICKING UP ON A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE
SAID AREA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD /LOWER 40 DEWPOINTS
VERSUS UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S/. THIS CAN BE SEEN NOT ONLY VIA THE
METARS AND THEIR 07Z REPORTED DEWPOINTS BUT ALSO PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING MOIST MID-HIGH LEVELS BUT DRIER LOW LEVELS.
WILL THEREFORE SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WRN ZONES WITH NIL POPS
ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES. GUIDANCE TEMPS RUNNING A BIT TOO WARM AS
WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY WHERE MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLED TO SURPASS THE
60S. WILL THEREFORE GO BELOW GUIDANCE AND SHOW HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR
ALL BUT THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS /70S/...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S.
LONG TERM...
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER
THE SRN PLAINS AS A RESULT OF MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
FLOW OVER THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER
SRN CALIF. BRIEF PERIOD OF NO PRECIP TO LAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD WRN
NEW MEXICO. BEST LIFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FROM ERN ARIZONA TO THE BIG BEND. LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD REMAIN ON TRACK. BEYOND THURSDAY MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE GFS SHEARING THE UPPER LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS BUT NOT UNTIL A MATURE DEFORMATION SETS UP OVER THE FCST
AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THE TROUGH SPLITTING WITH SOME ENERGY
EJECTING QUICKLY EWD AND SOME MOVING SW THEN WEST AND CLOSING OFF
AGAIN UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS LATTER
PART IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS THE UPPER LOW...
MOVING IT FROM THE BIG BEND WWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO. GFS HAS BEEN
PLAYING CATCH-UP THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...IF NOT BY FRIDAY...AT LEAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP PREDOMINANT. EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE MIDDLE DAY
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...IE TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 47 65 50 / 70 20 20 10
TULIA 61 48 66 50 / 50 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 61 49 66 51 / 40 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 65 51 64 52 / 50 30 30 10
LUBBOCK 67 52 65 52 / 40 30 30 10
DENVER CITY 68 52 66 54 / 60 40 30 10
BROWNFIELD 69 53 66 53 / 50 30 30 10
CHILDRESS 69 54 71 56 / 10 10 20 0
SPUR 71 54 68 54 / 10 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 77 57 73 55 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD -SHRA WERE APPROACHING KLBB AND KPVW FROM THE
WEST. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL LAST
UNTIL MID-MORNING WHERE A LULL WILL ENSUE...BEFORE POSSIBLE RE-
GENERATION SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
FOR A -SHRA PREVAILING MENTION AT KLBB AND KPVW UNTIL MID-
MORNING...WHERE THEREAFTER NOT TOO SURE WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION
WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND BKN-OVC VFR DECKS /WITH PERHAPS SCT
DURING THE LULL PERIOD/ WILL ENDURE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE UA RIDGE HAS EXITED THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UA
LOW TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS NRN CALI. THIS UA LOW WILL NOT ONLY
PROMOTE THE SHARPENING OF THE SW FLOW ALOFT /WHICH IS AIDING IN
STREAMING PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN NEARBY SFC LEE
TROUGHING AND LOWERED 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS. LOOKING AT THE SFC...A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME IS KEEPING PWATS AOA 1.00 INCH ACROSS
THE CWA...WHILST A 15-25 KT LLJ CRANKS AWAY THIS MORNING THUS
RESULTING IN ADEQUATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. IT IS THEREFORE NOT
SURPRISING TO SEE AN ONGOING BATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM ERN NM TO ACROSS THE WEST SOUTH
PLAINS...AND NE TO ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE...LEAVING PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES DRY PER 07Z RADAR ANALYSIS. THE TTU
MESONET REPORTED A FEW CITIES RECEIVING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT SINCE THIS SWATH OF
RAINFALL HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES SINCE LAST
NIGHT...TOTALS OF A HALF-INCH UP TO AROUND 1.00 INCH OR SO IS MORE
REPRESENTATIVE. MOTORIST ARE THEREFORE URGED TO APPROACH LOW-LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH CAUTION.
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
PRECIP SITUATION...AND AS SUCH SHOWS THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EWRD TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
ENDURE...WITH A NOTABLE LULL OCCURRING BY MID-MORNING. THIS LULL MAY
NOT LAST VERY LONG AS THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS HINT AT AN 80+ KT
250 MB JET MAX NEARING THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN AND
HENCE...PROVIDE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO RE-GENERATE STORMS MORE
SO FOR LOCALES ON THE CAPROCK /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER/.
THIS JET MAX WILL BE EXITING/WANING BY TONIGHT THOUGH LINGERING
STORMS ARE SHOWN TO OCCUR NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. IT IS INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING EWRD TO PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY PICKING UP ON A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE
SAID AREA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD /LOWER 40 DEWPOINTS
VERSUS UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S/. THIS CAN BE SEEN NOT ONLY VIA THE
METARS AND THEIR 07Z REPORTED DEWPOINTS BUT ALSO PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING MOIST MID-HIGH LEVELS BUT DRIER LOW LEVELS.
WILL THEREFORE SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WRN ZONES WITH NIL POPS
ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES. GUIDANCE TEMPS RUNNING A BIT TOO WARM AS
WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY WHERE MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLED TO SURPASS THE
60S. WILL THEREFORE GO BELOW GUIDANCE AND SHOW HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR
ALL BUT THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS /70S/...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S.
LONG TERM...
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER
THE SRN PLAINS AS A RESULT OF MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
FLOW OVER THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER
SRN CALIF. BRIEF PERIOD OF NO PRECIP TO LAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD WRN
NEW MEXICO. BEST LIFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FROM ERN ARIZONA TO THE BIG BEND. LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD REMAIN ON TRACK. BEYOND THURSDAY MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE GFS SHEARING THE UPPER LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS BUT NOT UNTIL A MATURE DEFORMATION SETS UP OVER THE FCST
AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THE TROUGH SPLITTING WITH SOME ENERGY
EJECTING QUICKLY EWD AND SOME MOVING SW THEN WEST AND CLOSING OFF
AGAIN UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS LATTER
PART IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS THE UPPER LOW...
MOVING IT FROM THE BIG BEND WWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO. GFS HAS BEEN
PLAYING CATCH-UP THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...IF NOT BY FRIDAY...AT LEAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP PREDOMINANT. EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE MIDDLE DAY
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...IE TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 47 65 50 / 70 20 20 10
TULIA 61 48 66 50 / 50 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 61 49 66 51 / 40 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 65 51 64 52 / 50 30 30 10
LUBBOCK 67 52 65 52 / 40 30 30 10
DENVER CITY 68 52 66 54 / 60 40 30 10
BROWNFIELD 69 53 66 53 / 50 30 30 10
CHILDRESS 69 54 71 56 / 10 10 20 0
SPUR 71 54 68 54 / 10 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 77 57 73 55 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
258 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THE UA RIDGE HAS EXITED THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UA
LOW TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS NRN CALI. THIS UA LOW WILL NOT ONLY
PROMOTE THE SHARPENING OF THE SW FLOW ALOFT /WHICH IS AIDING IN
STREAMING PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN NEARBY SFC LEE
TROUGHING AND LOWERED 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS. LOOKING AT THE SFC...A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME IS KEEPING PWATS AOA 1.00 INCH ACROSS
THE CWA...WHILST A 15-25 KT LLJ CRANKS AWAY THIS MORNING THUS
RESULTING IN ADEQUATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. IT IS THEREFORE NOT
SURPRISING TO SEE AN ONGOING BATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM ERN NM TO ACROSS THE WEST SOUTH
PLAINS...AND NE TO ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE...LEAVING PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES DRY PER 07Z RADAR ANALYSIS. THE TTU
MESONET REPORTED A FEW CITIES RECEIVING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT SINCE THIS SWATH OF
RAINFALL HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES SINCE LAST
NIGHT...TOTALS OF A HALF-INCH UP TO AROUND 1.00 INCH OR SO IS MORE
REPRESENTATIVE. MOTORIST ARE THEREFORE URGED TO APPROACH LOW-LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH CAUTION.
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
PRECIP SITUATION...AND AS SUCH SHOWS THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EWRD TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
ENDURE...WITH A NOTABLE LULL OCCURRING BY MID-MORNING. THIS LULL MAY
NOT LAST VERY LONG AS THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS HINT AT AN 80+ KT
250 MB JET MAX NEARING THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN AND
HENCE...PROVIDE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO RE-GENERATE STORMS MORE
SO FOR LOCALES ON THE CAPROCK /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER/.
THIS JET MAX WILL BE EXITING/WANING BY TONIGHT THOUGH LINGERING
STORMS ARE SHOWN TO OCCUR NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. IT IS INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING EWRD TO PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY PICKING UP ON A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE
SAID AREA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD /LOWER 40 DEWPOINTS
VERSUS UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S/. THIS CAN BE SEEN NOT ONLY VIA THE
METARS AND THEIR 07Z REPORTED DEWPOINTS BUT ALSO PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING MOIST MID-HIGH LEVELS BUT DRIER LOW LEVELS.
WILL THEREFORE SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WRN ZONES WITH NIL POPS
ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES. GUIDANCE TEMPS RUNNING A BIT TOO WARM AS
WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY WHERE MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLED TO SURPASS THE
60S. WILL THEREFORE GO BELOW GUIDANCE AND SHOW HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR
ALL BUT THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS /70S/...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S.
.LONG TERM...
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER
THE SRN PLAINS AS A RESULT OF MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
FLOW OVER THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER
SRN CALIF. BRIEF PERIOD OF NO PRECIP TO LAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD WRN
NEW MEXICO. BEST LIFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FROM ERN ARIZONA TO THE BIG BEND. LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD REMAIN ON TRACK. BEYOND THURSDAY MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE GFS SHEARING THE UPPER LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS BUT NOT UNTIL A MATURE DEFORMATION SETS UP OVER THE FCST
AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THE TROUGH SPLITTING WITH SOME ENERGY
EJECTING QUICKLY EWD AND SOME MOVING SW THEN WEST AND CLOSING OFF
AGAIN UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS LATTER
PART IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS THE UPPER LOW...
MOVING IT FROM THE BIG BEND WWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO. GFS HAS BEEN
PLAYING CATCH-UP THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...IF NOT BY FRIDAY...AT LEAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP PREDOMINANT. EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE MIDDLE DAY
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...IE TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 47 65 50 / 70 20 20 10
TULIA 61 48 66 50 / 50 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 61 49 66 51 / 40 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 65 51 64 52 / 50 30 30 10
LUBBOCK 67 52 65 52 / 40 30 30 10
DENVER CITY 68 52 66 54 / 60 40 30 10
BROWNFIELD 69 53 66 53 / 50 30 30 10
CHILDRESS 69 54 71 56 / 10 10 20 0
SPUR 71 54 68 54 / 10 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 77 57 73 55 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1038 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION
CENTERED AT AROUND 850MB THAT HAS MAINTAINED THE LOW OVERCAST DECK.
SOME DRIZZLE IS STILL BEING REPORTED OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA BUT HAS
GENERALLY ENDED ELSEWHERE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS
APPROACHING THE THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND PARTIAL CLEARING IS
OCCURRING WEST AND NORTH OF EAU CLAIRE AND MEDFORD. LOOKING FURTHER
WEST...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS. CLOUD TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
PUSH EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND FINALLY HELP TO
SCOUR OUT THESE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS. BUT UPSTREAM OBS DO NOT
SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR COMPLETELY AND WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY. THEN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AND CREATE BROKEN CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 40S.
TUESDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SOUTHEAST
AND REACH NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF
MID CLOUDS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A
MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING. BUT RH THINS OUT SOME IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND THE AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...SO WILL STICK
WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER
DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
PCPN TRENDS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND QPF AMOUNTS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY.
PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
PCPN WILL DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A 45-50 KT LLJ JET AND A COUPLED UPPER JET
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES NORTHWEST
WI. THIS FORCING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY MORNING
AND INTERACT WITH PWATS OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES AND SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (H8 LI`S OF 0 TO -2) TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A H8 WARM FRONT WILL RESIDE...
AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT (ESPECIALLY THE EVENING HOURS)...UNTIL THE UPPER TROF
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...STRONG WAA MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO FAR NE WI ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NORTHERN WI ON
MONDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AROUND MVFR CIGS
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. WHERE CLOUDS DO BRIEFLY
DEPART...LOCALIZED FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOPS AND THEN DISSIPATES
AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE OVER THE AREA. SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST
THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXTEND WESTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS SO
ANTICIPATE VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PERSIST INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY
UNTIL A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH STARTING TUESDAY EVENING. LIKELY
WILL START SEEING DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
539 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND NOSING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH MOIST ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RISING OVER THE BOUNDARY. THE MID-LEVELS ARE NOT SATURATED
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP JUDGING FROM 12Z SOUNDINGS...BUT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXISTS BELOW 800MB FOR A LOW OVERCAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE OVERCAST LIES JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. CLOUD TRENDS AND
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN DRAPED
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND EVER SO SLIGHTLY LIFTS NORTHWEST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE SATURATED LAYER
WILL GROW THROUGH 700MB ALONG AND EAST OF THE FOX VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE BROKEN TO OVERCAST WITH CLOUD BASES
THAT LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THOUGH OVER N-C AND CENTRAL WI. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE DURING THE MORNING SINCE
THE FRONT HARDLY BUDGES. BUT THEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PICK UP
MOMENTUM TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE
SOME CLEARING TAKE PLACE OVER N-C AND CENTRAL WI WI. TOUGH TO SEE
MUCH CLEARING FURTHER EAST THOUGH. WARMER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PCPN CHANCES AND TIMING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE NEXT
WORK WEEK. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SAG SOUTH ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MAKE
A PUSH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK...
A DRY FCST IS ANTICIPATED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDS NGT
AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING LATE WEDS NGT...AFFECTING THE
ENTIRE REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN PULLING OUT THURSDAY EVENING.
STRONG DYNAMICS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PCPN AMOUNTS OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...AS WELL AS ISOLD/SCT TSTMS. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY...BUT SUBSEQUENT FCSTS MAY NEED TO RAISE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL.
ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHWOODS...MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE PLEASANT WEATHER WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING OVER MOST LOCATIONS WILL
LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG AND
DRIZZLE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND NOSING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH MOIST ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RISING OVER THE BOUNDARY. THE MID-LEVELS ARE NOT SATURATED
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP JUDGING FROM 12Z SOUNDINGS...BUT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXISTS BELOW 800MB FOR A LOW OVERCAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE OVERCAST LIES JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. CLOUD TRENDS AND
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN DRAPED
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND EVER SO SLIGHTLY LIFTS NORTHWEST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE SATURATED LAYER
WILL GROW THROUGH 700MB ALONG AND EAST OF THE FOX VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE BROKEN TO OVERCAST WITH CLOUD BASES
THAT LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THOUGH OVER N-C AND CENTRAL WI. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE DURING THE MORNING SINCE
THE FRONT HARDLY BUDGES. BUT THEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PICK UP
MOMENTUM TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE
SOME CLEARING TAKE PLACE OVER N-C AND CENTRAL WI WI. TOUGH TO SEE
MUCH CLEARING FURTHER EAST THOUGH. WARMER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PCPN CHANCES AND TIMING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE NEXT
WORK WEEK. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SAG SOUTH ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MAKE
A PUSH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK...
A DRY FCST IS ANTICIPATED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDS NGT
AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING LATE WEDS NGT...AFFECTING THE
ENTIRE REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN PULLING OUT THURSDAY EVENING.
STRONG DYNAMICS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PCPN AMOUNTS OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...AS WELL AS ISOLD/SCT TSTMS. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY...BUT SUBSEQUENT FCSTS MAY NEED TO RAISE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL.
ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHWOODS...MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE PLEASANT WEATHER WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CIGS LIKELY TO LOWER OVER EASTERN AND
CENTRAL WI TONIGHT TO IFR LEVELS. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY ALSO LOWER
VSBYS AT TIMES ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL. CIGS/VSBYS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE ON MONDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1237 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURES.
WILL FOLLOW THE RAP 0.5 TO 1.0 KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT...WHICH
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS BETTER THAN MOST
OTHER MODELS.
IN SHORT...TODAY WILL BE MUCH CLOUDIER THAN MOST OF LAST WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN. HOWEVER...AN EXPANSIVE STRATO-CUMULUS DECK FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF IN SOME FORM AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TO THE WEST...CIRRUS ARE STREAMING
NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL STAY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT. DESPITE WARMER
925 HPA TEMPERATURES TODAY...THESE CLOUDS WILL NO DOUBT PUT A DENT
IN THE POTENTIAL WARM-UP...NOT TO MENTION MIXING WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS WEAK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THINK HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE 60 DEGREE
MARK...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER.
LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S WITH NO FROST ISSUES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY RESULTING IN VERY
WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND AGAIN LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE.
DESPITE 925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM +10 TO +12 CELSIUS...WILL CAP
MONDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT THIS MAY STILL BE TOO
WARM.
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS...COMBINED WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID
TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BREAK THE
70 DEGREE MARK MOST PLACES. WEDNESDAY NOW APPEARS MOSTLY DRY AS A
PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE RIVER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY
AS MODEST FORCING INTERACTS WITH INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDER ON THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
GOOD WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE BETWEEN 400 TO 800 J/KG. MUCH OF
THURSDAY WILL STILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SO HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE NATION/S MID-SECTION BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN OVC-BKN
STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH CLOUD BASES RANGING FROM 1500-2500 FT. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTIONS WE COULD SEE SOME FOG TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE NOT EXPECTING FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD WERE TO CLEAR TONIGHT WE COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF FOG. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON CLOUD TRENDS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
922 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE ARE A
FEW HOLES NOTED IN THIS DECK...SO WE SHOULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ELSEWHERE...THE CLOUDS WILL HELP
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA SO
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FOR TODAY ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURES.
WILL FOLLOW THE RAP 0.5 TO 1.0 KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT...WHICH
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS BETTER THAN MOST
OTHER MODELS.
IN SHORT...TODAY WILL BE MUCH CLOUDIER THAN MOST OF LAST WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN. HOWEVER...AN EXPANSIVE STRATO-CUMULUS DECK FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF IN SOME FORM AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TO THE WEST...CIRRUS ARE STREAMING
NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL STAY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT. DESPITE WARMER
925 HPA TEMPERATURES TODAY...THESE CLOUDS WILL NO DOUBT PUT A DENT
IN THE POTENTIAL WARM-UP...NOT TO MENTION MIXING WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS WEAK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THINK HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE 60 DEGREE
MARK...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER.
LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S WITH NO FROST ISSUES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY RESULTING IN VERY
WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND AGAIN LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE.
DESPITE 925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM +10 TO +12 CELSIUS...WILL CAP
MONDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT THIS MAY STILL BE TOO
WARM.
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS...COMBINED WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID
TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BREAK THE
70 DEGREE MARK MOST PLACES. WEDNESDAY NOW APPEARS MOSTLY DRY AS A
PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE RIVER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY
AS MODEST FORCING INTERACTS WITH INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDER ON THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
GOOD WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE BETWEEN 400 TO 800 J/KG. MUCH OF
THURSDAY WILL STILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SO HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE NATION/S MID-SECTION BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE LOWER STRATO-CU DECK IN THE 2000-3000 FT RANGE CONTINUES TO BE
PROBLEMATIC AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING...AND WILL REMAIN SO THRU
THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. BOTH KRST/KLSE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
LOWER CLOUD DECK AT 12Z...WITH FOG-PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOWING THIS EDGE
UNDULATING NORTH-SOUTH AND EAST-WEST THE PAST FEW HOURS. PRESENT
TREND HAS IT EXPANDING NORTH AGAIN...AGAINST THE BULK OF THE SFC-
850MB WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. LEFT CLOUDS OUT OF KRST RIGHT OFF
THE BAT...BUT CONTINUED TO SPREAD AN MVFR DECK ACROSS BOTH SITES
THRU THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. REMAINED OPTIMISTIC
FOR DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING TO SCATTER THE CLOUD DECK THRU THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE MEDIUM AT BEST
FOR THIS TO OCCUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE TO
INCREASE/DEEPEN TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST.
TRENDED TOWARD BKN-OVC 2000-2500 FT CIGS AFTER 01Z TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL IFR CIGS AT KRST LATE TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURES.
WILL FOLLOW THE RAP 0.5 TO 1.0 KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT...WHICH
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS BETTER THAN MOST
OTHER MODELS.
IN SHORT...TODAY WILL BE MUCH CLOUDIER THAN MOST OF LAST WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN. HOWEVER...AN EXPANSIVE STRATO-CUMULUS DECK FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF IN SOME FORM AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TO THE WEST...CIRRUS ARE STREAMING
NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL STAY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT. DESPITE WARMER
925 HPA TEMPERATURES TODAY...THESE CLOUDS WILL NO DOUBT PUT A DENT
IN THE POTENTIAL WARM-UP...NOT TO MENTION MIXING WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS WEAK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THINK HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE 60 DEGREE
MARK...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER.
LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S WITH NO FROST ISSUES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY RESULTING IN VERY
WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND AGAIN LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE.
DESPITE 925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM +10 TO +12 CELSIUS...WILL CAP
MONDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT THIS MAY STILL BE TOO
WARM.
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS...COMBINED WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID
TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BREAK THE
70 DEGREE MARK MOST PLACES. WEDNESDAY NOW APPEARS MOSTLY DRY AS A
PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE RIVER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY
AS MODEST FORCING INTERACTS WITH INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDER ON THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
GOOD WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE BETWEEN 400 TO 800 J/KG. MUCH OF
THURSDAY WILL STILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SO HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE NATION/S MID-SECTION BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE LOWER STRATO-CU DECK IN THE 2000-3000 FT RANGE CONTINUES TO BE
PROBLEMATIC AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING...AND WILL REMAIN SO THRU
THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. BOTH KRST/KLSE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
LOWER CLOUD DECK AT 12Z...WITH FOG-PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOWING THIS EDGE
UNDULATING NORTH-SOUTH AND EAST-WEST THE PAST FEW HOURS. PRESENT
TREND HAS IT EXPANDING NORTH AGAIN...AGAINST THE BULK OF THE SFC-
850MB WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. LEFT CLOUDS OUT OF KRST RIGHT OFF
THE BAT...BUT CONTINUED TO SPREAD AN MVFR DECK ACROSS BOTH SITES
THRU THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. REMAINED OPTIMISTIC
FOR DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING TO SCATTER THE CLOUD DECK THRU THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE MEDIUM AT BEST
FOR THIS TO OCCUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE TO
INCREASE/DEEPEN TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST.
TRENDED TOWARD BKN-OVC 2000-2500 FT CIGS AFTER 01Z TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL IFR CIGS AT KRST LATE TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURES.
WILL FOLLOW THE RAP 0.5 TO 1.0 KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT...WHICH
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS BETTER THAN MOST
OTHER MODELS.
IN SHORT...TODAY WILL BE MUCH CLOUDIER THAN MOST OF LAST WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN. HOWEVER...AN EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF IN SOME FORM AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TO THE WEST...CIRRUS ARE STREAMING
NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL STAY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT. DESPITE WARMER
925 HPA TEMPERATURES TODAY...THESE CLOUDS WILL NO DOUBT PUT A DENT
IN THE POTENTIAL WARM-UP...NOT TO MENTION MIXING WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS WEAK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THINK HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE 60 DEGREE
MARK...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER.
LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S WITH NO FROST ISSUES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY RESULTING IN VERY
WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND AGAIN LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE.
DESPITE 925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM +10 TO +12 CELSIUS...WILL CAP
MONDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT THIS MAY STILL BE TOO
WARM.
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS...COMBINED WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID
TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BREAK THE
70 DEGREE MARK MOST PLACES. WEDNESDAY NOW APPEARS MOSTLY DRY AS A
PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE RIVER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY
AS MODEST FORCING INTERACTS WITH INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDER ON THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
GOOD WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE BETWEEN 400 TO 800 J/KG. MUCH OF
THURSDAY WILL STILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SO HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE NATION/S MID-SECTION BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
LOWER CLOUDS/MOISTURE...IN THE LOWER VFR AND HIGHER MVFR RANGE
ADVECTING RATHER QUICKLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FCST AREA AT 05Z.
DISTANCE-SPEED TOOL BRINGS THEM TO KLSE SHORTLY AFTER 06Z AND INTO
THE KRST AREA AT 08Z. ONCE THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAKES IT INTO THE
AREA...FLOW WEAKENS AND APPEARS THESE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND AND BE
PROBLEMATIC MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS. DID REMAIN OPTIMISTIC FOR A
PERIOD OF WARMING/MIXING AND SCATTERING OF THIS CLOUD DECK AT THE
TAF SITES FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. TRENDED 06Z TAF
SET TOWARD MORE VFR AND MVFR CIGS IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE THRU
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1159 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
LATEST WYDOT WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG JUST WEST OF
CHEYENNE THIS MORNING. WILL GIVE THIS ANOTHER FEW HOURS TO LIFT
AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON TODAY. WENT AHEAD
AND LET EASTERN ZONE OF LARAMIE COUNTY EXPIRE ON TIME THIS
MORNING. UPDATES SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF SOUTHEAST WYO AND THE WESTERN NEB PANHANDLE THIS AM. DENSE FOG IS
ONCE AGAIN THE PROBLEM OF THE MORNING WITH PERSISTENT EAST/SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. JUST LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN IS THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE-CHEYENNE WHERE WYDOT
WEBCAMS HAVE FREQUENTLY SHOWN VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE QUARTER MILE. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE CREATING ENOUGH MIXING FOR BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS IN SFC
CONDITIONS...BUT FOG HAS BEEN RETURNING QUICKLY. WE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADZY FROM THE I80 SUMMIT EASTWARD INTO CHEYENNE UNTIL 15
Z WHEN THE HRRR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS LIFTING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT SHOWERS TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SHORT-
WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CWA. NO SIGN THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LET
UP ANYTIME SOON...SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL/DREARY DAY FOR MANY. H7
TEMPS BETWEEN +2 AND +4 DEG C WOULD SUGGEST DIFFICULTY EVEN GETTING
OUT OF THE 40S FOR SOME PLAINS SITES IF CLOUDS HANG ON ALL DAY WHICH
MOST NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST. THE MODELS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASING YET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...SO KEPT MENTION OF FOG
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WY AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH 15Z MON. WE
FINALLY GET RID OF THE UPSLOPE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD
HELP KICK OFF A WARMING TREND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE PROMOTING MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. PRECIP CHANCES MAY INCREASE LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO POPS AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH SLOWER AND
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...POSSIBLY YIELDING A DRIER SCENARIO
FOR THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LESS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MID TO
LATE THIS WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE WEST. THE NORTHERN
STREAM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
TEXAS BY LATE WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD SEE DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHOWER WILL NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE LATER IN
THE WEEK...THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ON THE LOW SIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SEASON NORMALS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IFR PREVAILING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS
AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT SHOULD START TO SEE
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK. ISSUED AT 438 AM
MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
858 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
LATEST WYDOT WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG JUST WEST OF
CHEYENNE THIS MORNING. WILL GIVE THIS ANOTHER FEW HOURS TO LIFT
AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON TODAY. WENT AHEAD
AND LET EASTERN ZONE OF LARAMIE COUNTY EXPIRE ON TIME THIS
MORNING. UPDATES SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF SOUTHEAST WYO AND THE WESTERN NEB PANHANDLE THIS AM. DENSE FOG IS
ONCE AGAIN THE PROBLEM OF THE MORNING WITH PERSISTENT EAST/SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. JUST LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN IS THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE-CHEYENNE WHERE WYDOT
WEBCAMS HAVE FREQUENTLY SHOWN VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE QUARTER MILE. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE CREATING ENOUGH MIXING FOR BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS IN SFC
CONDITIONS...BUT FOG HAS BEEN RETURNING QUICKLY. WE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADZY FROM THE I80 SUMMIT EASTWARD INTO CHEYENNE UNTIL 15
Z WHEN THE HRRR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS LIFTING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT SHOWERS TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SHORT-
WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CWA. NO SIGN THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LET
UP ANYTIME SOON...SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL/DREARY DAY FOR MANY. H7
TEMPS BETWEEN +2 AND +4 DEG C WOULD SUGGEST DIFFICULTY EVEN GETTING
OUT OF THE 40S FOR SOME PLAINS SITES IF CLOUDS HANG ON ALL DAY WHICH
MOST NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST. THE MODELS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASING YET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...SO KEPT MENTION OF FOG
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WY AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH 15Z MON. WE
FINALLY GET RID OF THE UPSLOPE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD
HELP KICK OFF A WARMING TREND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE PROMOTING MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. PRECIP CHANCES MAY INCREASE LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO POPS AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH SLOWER AND
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...POSSIBLY YIELDING A DRIER SCENARIO
FOR THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESADY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LESS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MID TO
LATE THIS WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE WEST. THE NORTHERN
STREAM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
TEXAS BY LATE WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD SEE DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHOWER WILL NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE LATER IN
THE WEEK...THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPIPTATION WILL
BE ON THE LOW SIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SEASON NORMALS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE TODAY. IFR CIGS WILL BE PREDOMINANT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS LIFTING
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MAINLY MVFR. DENSE FOG WILL ALSO
OCCUR THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE
VISIBILITIES WILL BE DOWN TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT TIMES. CIGS
WILL AGAIN DROP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH FOG RETURNING
TO THE SAME AREAS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS
AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT SHOULD START TO SEE
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK. ISSUED AT 438 AM
MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
524 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF SOUTHEAST WYO AND THE WESTERN NEB PANHANDLE THIS AM. DENSE FOG IS
ONCE AGAIN THE PROBLEM OF THE MORNING WITH PERSISTENT EAST/SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. JUST LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN IS THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE-CHEYENNE WHERE WYDOT
WEBCAMS HAVE FREQUENTLY SHOWN VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE QUARTER MILE. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE CREATING ENOUGH MIXING FOR BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS IN SFC
CONDITIONS...BUT FOG HAS BEEN RETURNING QUICKLY. WE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADZY FROM THE I80 SUMMIT EASTWARD INTO CHEYENNE UNTIL 15
Z WHEN THE HRRR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS LIFTING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT SHOWERS TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SHORT-
WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CWA. NO SIGN THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LET
UP ANYTIME SOON...SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL/DREARY DAY FOR MANY. H7
TEMPS BETWEEN +2 AND +4 DEG C WOULD SUGGEST DIFFICULTY EVEN GETTING
OUT OF THE 40S FOR SOME PLAINS SITES IF CLOUDS HANG ON ALL DAY WHICH
MOST NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST. THE MODELS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASING YET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...SO KEPT MENTION OF FOG
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WY AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH 15Z MON. WE
FINALLY GET RID OF THE UPSLOPE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD
HELP KICK OFF A WARMING TREND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE PROMOTING MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. PRECIP CHANCES MAY INCREASE LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO POPS AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH SLOWER AND
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...POSSIBLY YIELDING A DRIER SCENARIO
FOR THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESADY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LESS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MID TO
LATE THIS WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE WEST. THE NORTHERN
STREAM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
TEXAS BY LATE WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD SEE DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHOWER WILL NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE LATER IN
THE WEEK...THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPIPTATION WILL
BE ON THE LOW SIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SEASON NORMALS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE TODAY. IFR CIGS WILL BE PREDOMINANT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS LIFTING
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MAINLY MVFR. DENSE FOG WILL ALSO
OCCUR THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE
VISIBILITIES WILL BE DOWN TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT TIMES. CIGS
WILL AGAIN DROP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH FOG RETURNING
TO THE SAME AREAS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS
AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT SHOULD START TO SEE
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK. ISSUED AT 438 AM
MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1231 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING CHEYENNE.
VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER AND ONE HALF MILE. LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY ENTERING
LARAMIE COUNTY FROM COLORADO...AND THIS MAY TEMPORARILY CAUSE
THE FOG TO LIFT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NOW...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES FROM CHEYENNE TO
THE I-80 SUMMIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. NOT REALLY SEEING ANY UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCES THAT COULD KICK OFF SHOWERS...SO CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSAIC RADAR IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION UP IN RIVERTONS
AREA...JUST NORTH OF CARBON COUNTY THATS SHOWING A SLOW SOUTHEAST
PROGRESSION. HRRR SHOWING SOME CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND DRIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY WAIT
FOR THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
BEFORE PUBLISHING THE FORECAST.
EXPECTING A REPEAT TONIGHT FOR FOG/STRATUS. MAYBE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD COMBINE TO GIVE MOST OF US A
COLD/DAMP NIGHT. ALL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE
SURFACE...EVEN OUT BY RAWLINS. CONTINUED THE WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN ENDING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS
UP INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL THERE...BUT
MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO OVERNIGHT FOG MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM CHEYENNE TO WHEATLAND. TRENDED THE FORECAST
THAT WAY FOR MONDAY MORNING.
WESTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO +8C. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S AS THIS HAPPENS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER EASTERN UTAH...COMBINED WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
WYOMING COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY...LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH...SO NO MORE THAN ISOLATED
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...EVEN MORE DRYING OUT WITH NORTHWEST ALOFT ALOFT...THUS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES NORTHWEST WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...THOUGH WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.
SATURDAY...SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE TODAY. IFR CIGS WILL BE PREDOMINANT
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CIGS LIFTING SOMEWHAT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY MVFR. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE
VISIBILITIES WILL BE DOWN TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT TIMES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE STAY IN
A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS. WIDESPREAD FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ROTATING
AROUND A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
IF WE KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...COVERAGE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WITH US
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS. SO NO
ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZF
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
403 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
CURRENTLY...
UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED VICINITY LAS VEGAS. QUITE A FEW SHOWERS/TSRA
WERE NOTED OVER UTAH AND ACROSS W CO. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ALONG THE CONTDVD AT 3 AM...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY IN THE N
SANGRES. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE RATON MESA IN NM...AND UP IN NORTHEAST CO.
TODAY...
EXPECT TO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FAR E PLAINS AND N EL PASO COUNTY.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/TSRA OVER THE MTNS
TODAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT ALOFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO GET ADVECTED NWD AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST. OVERALL BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BY LATER IN THE DAY...PRECIP WILL DEVELOP FARTHER
EAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AS DIFFLUENT FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES OVER THIS REGION.
SOME SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH MARGINAL CAPE. WE MAY SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...AND LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME RED CORES MOVING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION LATER TODAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED SOME AREAS NW OF PIKES PEAK
RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN YDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM AGAIN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F
ON THE PLAINS...AND 60S AND 70S VALLEYS.
TONIGHT...
EXPECT MORE MID LVL CLOUDS ON THE PLAINS. OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH BEST CHANCES REMAINING
OVER THE SW MTNS AND PIKES PEAK REGION. UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE
BACK TOWARDS THE S-SW LATER TONIGHT. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN COLORADO...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS. EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER TO
TURN DRY AND WARM BY THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE WEAK ENERGY
MOVES ACROSS COLORADO IN INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE MOST ACTIVE DAY APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
ENERGY WRAPPING NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING...INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...EXPANDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS FAVORING
THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND RATON MESA REGIONS AND
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERN
COLORADO BECOMING MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO WORK EASTWARD ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT EVEN LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH GENERALLY 70S ACROSS
THE REGION.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...A GOOD 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES..KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. LOTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION NEXT 24H AS UPPER LOW KEEPS ADVECTING MSTR OVER THE AREA.
BELIEVE MID LVL CLOUDINESS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING OVER THE
TAF SITES...BUT IF WE CLEAR OUT THEN I CANT RULE IT OUT. WE WILL
ALSO HAVE PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
328 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS REVEAL THE COMPACT
UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPORADIC SHOWERS OVER THE LAST TWO
DAYS...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE HISTORIC FLOODING OVER THE
CAROLINAS...CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE. THIS FEATURE IS LEAD BY
JOAQUIN...WHICH CONTINUES TO CHURN THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC...REMAINING A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE AS OF THIS WRITING. IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GULF COASTAL REGION...WITH
PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
IN THE WAKE OF A STOUT UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT BOUTS OF SHOWERS TO
THE REGION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST IN THE MID LEVELS. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN
PLACE...AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A STOUT INVERSION AROUND 700
MB...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE QUITE SPARSE TODAY...WITH BETTER
CHANCES GENERALLY REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA AND
OFFSHORE WATERS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS DEPICT A WEAK REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY. WHEN COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF
SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES...EXPECT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REENTER THE FORECAST. WITH EASTERLY FLOW THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD I-75 AND THE TAMPA/ST
PETERSBURG AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S AND LOWS RIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
AN U/L TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. AN
U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WHICH INDUCE AN AMPLIFYING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
AN U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIG THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SINK OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON FRIDAY
AND WILL STALL ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE U/L FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ADVECTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH PCPW
VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
CREATE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...COMBINED WITH L/L
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH
AFTERNOON. GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN REGION OF SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY AND GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS SUGGESTS AREA OF LOW CIGS IS
DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL...AND SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH. IT
REMAINS UNKNOWN WHETHER THESE WILL BUILD INTO THE TPA/KPIE/KLAL
AREAS...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. ASIDE FROM EXPECTATION OF BR AT KLAL AND
KPGD...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL TAKE A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE MOVES
INLAND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
HOWEVER...AS RATHER DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS. WEAK
TROUGHING WILL THEN REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OF 1
TO 2 FEET TOPS...NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...THOUGH HUMIDITIES
LOOK TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. FROM TOMORROW ON INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY
WILDFIRE CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 85 71 86 72 / 10 10 20 10
FMY 87 71 87 73 / 10 10 40 20
GIF 86 70 86 70 / 10 10 30 10
SRQ 85 71 87 72 / 10 10 20 10
BKV 84 68 86 68 / 10 10 20 0
SPG 83 73 85 76 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/AUSTIN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
314 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Main short-term forecast challenge will once again be cloud cover
and its impact on high temperatures today. Much like last
night...low clouds are currently developing over northern Illinois.
With surface high pressure still in place from the western Great
Lakes to the Central Plains...northeasterly low-level flow will
allow the clouds to spread S/SW into the KILX CWA over the next few
hours. 08z/3am obs show IFR ceilings along/northeast of a Lacon
to Paris line...with mid/high clouds blanketing the remainder of
the area. HRRR suggests these lower clouds will spread as far
south as the I-70 corridor shortly after dawn...resulting in
overcast conditions across the board to start the day. In
addition...quite a bit of fog is developing under the low cloud
deck. While models do not indicate the fog will become
dense...visibilities will be restricted to less than 1 mile at
times...especially along/northeast of a Lacon...to Decatur...to
Paris line. Will carry areas of fog across this portion of the
CWA through 14-15z...with patchy fog elsewhere. As was the case
yesterday...the fog and lower clouds will dissipate toward
midday...however a short-wave trough tracking eastward out of the
Plains will provide plenty of high clouds throughout the
afternoon. While some partial sunshine is likely later in the
day...the increased cloud cover will result in slightly cooler
afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
As high pressure shifts overhead on Wednesday...synoptic
subsidence/drying will allow the persistent cloud cover to finally
dissipate. Due to increased sunshine...high temps will reach the
middle to upper 70s. Once the high slides further east...and a
gusty S/SW wind develops ahead of an approaching cold front...high
temperatures will climb even higher into the upper 70s and lower 80s
by Thursday. 00z Oct 6 models are now in very good agreement
concerning timing of frontal passage...with the boundary passing
through central Illinois Thursday night. With strongest forcing and
deepest moisture remaining west of the area until late in the
day...have removed PoPs Thursday morning and only featured chance
PoPs west of the I-57 corridor during the afternoon. The best
chance for rain still appears to be on target Thursday night...when
high chance to likely PoPs are warranted. Gulf moisture return
ahead of the front will be sufficient to allow surface dewpoints to
climb into the upper 50s/lower 60s. This will result in SBCAPE
values of around 1000J/Kg during the late afternoon and evening.
Thanks to an approaching upper wave...0-6km bulk shear will increase
to around 30kt as well. Due to the moderate instability/shear in
place...have decided to mention a chance for thunderstorms with
FROPA Thursday afternoon and night.
All models now show the front quickly pushing through the area and
moving into the Ohio River Valley by Friday morning. As a
result...will only hold on to a low chance PoP across the far SE
Friday morning...with dry conditions expected everywhere by
afternoon. Airmass behind boundary will be quite a bit
cooler...with high temperatures remaining in the 60s for both
Friday and Saturday.
After that...upper heights will once again be on the increase across
the Midwest early next week. As the next cold front begins to
approach from the northwest...a strong thermal axis with 850mb temps
of 18-22C will develop across the area. This will help push
afternoon high temperatures back into the lower 80s by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
High pressure ridge remains to our northwest tonight allowing
moist northeast flow to persist. IFR Cigs are not too far away
from KBMI and KCMI with both KPNT and KTIP below 1000 ft and will
likely slowly advect into those terminals by 06z. Some reductions
in vsby are occurring mainly just to the southwest of the low
deck.
00z models and 21z SREF differ in how far southwest the low deck
will get with the RAP more aggressive and the HRRR keeping low
clouds only in eastern terminals. Will have to be monitored
closely, but for now will stick with middle ground and bring in
MVFR CIG for at least a time around sunrise at KDEC and only a
scattered deck at KSPI.
Latest model runs are a bit quicker in dissipating low clouds
Tuesday morning but with little dry air to advect in and mid-level
clouds above the lower deck think trend will still be on the
slower side.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1145 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 817 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Have made some minor adjustments to cloudiness, otherwise current
package looks on-track.
Low clouds have made it as far southwest as KPNT at 01z and
should continue to overspread area under influence of northeast
flow. Fog development still looks like a good bet, particularly
along I-74 from east of Peoria through Danville.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Stratus deck held firm a good part of the morning, but started to
rapidly erode toward midday and most of it is now gone from the
forecast area as of 2 pm. Still getting some cirrus streaming up
from the southwest, but most areas at least are now partly sunny.
This has helped temperatures recover nicely and much of the CWA has
reached into the 70s. A few 80 degree readings have been observed in
the far southeast, where skies have been mostly sunny the entire
time.
High pressure ridge from Wisconsin to Oklahoma will move little
overnight, keeping our northeast flow continuing. 925 mb RAP
humidity plot showing some southern building of the lower clouds
once again overnight, and have indicated mostly cloudy conditions
spreading over most of the forecast area overnight. It has also been
persistent over the last few hours on a widespread dense fog
scenario expanding southwest to cover the southeast half of the
forecast area. The 4km NAM-nest shows this a bit further northwest,
mainly from about I-55 eastward, and the tail end of the HRRR is
more patchy in nature, but in that same general region. At the
moment, will only mention patchy fog in the forecast and continue to
watch how the stratus evolves this evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
High pressure ridge will dominate the weather across central IL
through mid week. Though there could be some cloud cover, partly to
mostly sunny skies should be the rule, with temps warming to above
normal, mid to upper 70s...into the lower 80s, for Wed and Thur.
Then models are in very good agreement with timing and intensity of
a cold front moving through the area Thursday night. Pcpn will begin
just ahead of the front Thursday morning northwest of the IL river
and then spread eastward through the afternoon and into the evening
for the southeast. The front should move through the area quickly
Thursday night with pcpn likely over the northeastern portion of the
CWA during the night. The pcpn should be exiting the area from late
Thursday night through early Friday morning. Lingering pcpn will in
southeastern IL Friday morning, with all pcpn gone before the
afternoon. This front will bring cooler temps in for Friday and
Saturday, but with another high pressure ridge moving into the area,
temps will again warm to above normal levels for Sun and Mon. Dry
weather is also expected Friday afternoon through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
High pressure ridge remains to our northwest tonight allowing
moist northeast flow to persist. IFR Cigs are not too far away
from KBMI and KCMI with both KPNT and KTIP below 1000 ft and will
likely slowly advect into those terminals by 06z. Some reductions
in vsby are occurring mainly just to the southwest of the low
deck.
00z models and 21z SREF differ in how far southwest the low deck
will get with the RAP more aggressive and the HRRR keeping low
clouds only in eastern terminals. Will have to be monitored
closely, but for now will stick with middle ground and bring in
MVFR CIG for at least a time around sunrise at KDEC and only a
scattered deck at KSPI.
Latest model runs are a bit quicker in dissipating low clouds
Tuesday morning but with little dry air to advect in and mid-level
clouds above the lower deck think trend will still be on the
slower side.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Barker
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Barker
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
253 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.
VERY LITTLE FLOW IN THIS AIR MASS AND MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECK LOOKS
TO BE VERY PERSISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RH BETWEEN 800-
600MB REMAINS GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT UNTIL AROUND 18-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUD DECK BEGINS TO THIN OUT A LITTLE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE
WEST. VERY WEAK AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE LATE THIS
MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE CLOUD DECK. WENT
AT OR A SLIGHT NUDGE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE (ECS/MET/MAV) AS THEY WERE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES TODAY...BUT TO NOTE THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WEST. ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
TODAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN MENTIONING WITH THE HIGH BASED CLOUD
DECK.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FEW CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED. TIMING OF FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT RAIN
CHANCES THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD. THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO LEAD
THE PACK WITH A FASTER FRONTAL TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA COMPARED
TO THE EURO. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER LINGERING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE LACK OF
CONCERTED FORCING SHOULD RANGE IN THE TENTHS TO HALF INCH RANGE AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THOUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE NORTH. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ADD TO THE COOLER FALL READINGS FOR THE DAY. GRADUALLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK H500 HEIGHT RISES AND A TRANSITION
TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
A DRY COOL FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE MIDWEST/PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING
WITH A RETURN TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...06/06Z
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH 12Z WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOWER
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH WEAK WAVE PROGRESSING NE...WILL
KEEP LOWER CIGS AT KOTM WITH SOME BR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTH BY 12Z. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY 14Z WITH LITTLE WIND REMAINDER
OF PERIOD...THOUGH WINDS SHIFT NNW AFT 00Z MOST AREAS EXCEPT KOTM.
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN BALANCE THROUGH 00Z MOST AREAS./REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
335 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING AND LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY HAVE
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOWS.
AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET DID THE BEST ALTHOUGH ALL
WERE CLOSE. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF. THE RAP AND NAM WERE DOING THE
BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND
ECMWF WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE THE STRATUS AND FOG.
EVENING HAS ALREADY PUT OUT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AS WAS THE
CASE LAST NIGHT...AFTER AGREEMENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT SHOWING UP ON HOW FAR EAST TO TAKE THE FOG AND
HOW EXTENSIVE IT WILL BE. WILL KEEP THE GOING FORECAST AND
ADVISORY GOING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE SHIFT. THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW CLEARING TREND AND THE WIND
FIELD WILL KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR
THE MAXES.
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOT OF DRY AIR UPSTREAM.
ALSO HEIGHTS KEEP BUILDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
STILL KEEP THE MAIN UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS GET THROWN UP AT US. SINCE
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE USED THE SLOWEST MODELS TO BASE
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON WHICH TENDED TO BE THE GFS AND ECMWF.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...MODELS DELAY THE MAIN LIFT UNTIL THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT AFFECTS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA
AROUND 06Z. THEY THEN EITHER KEEP IT OVER THE AREA...MOVE IT A
LITTLE SOUTHEAST OR MOVE IT BACK TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEP THE
DAYTIME DRY AND SLOWLY INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SEEMS TO BE SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE LIFT
AND WHERE THEY PUT THE QPF. COMBINATION OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND JET LIFT COMBINE WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF AND NOT FURTHER SOUTH PER THE QPF.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WHERE THE JET LIFT. MODELS MOVE MOST OF THE
JET LIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT BUT STILL A LOT
OF DISAGREEMENT. PER THE TRANSITION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET
LIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING BY LATE EVENING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS GENERAL IDEA IN MIND AND ONLY MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING PERIOD PER REASONING ABOVE.
THERE SHOULD BE CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIPITATION WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. MODELS WARM UP TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT BUT CLOUD COVER NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT IN
HOW THEY HANDLE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY THE REGION BECOMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW AND WOULD INDICATE A FAVORABLE
RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT THE DEGREE OF FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAINFALL SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE. NO
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT SO JUST HAVE A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS.
ABOVE SYSTEM PUSHES A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT IS THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. MODELS SEEM A BIT
WARM CONSIDERING THE TIMING SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE OR KEPT IT CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE US WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO MEXICO. FRIDAY IS
STILL LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO A
COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE CWA THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND THE BEGINNING PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS KEEP PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CWA. MONDAY IS LOOKING TO HAVE A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2015
WIDESPREAD FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING. FOG IS DEVELOPING ALREADY
ACROSS EAST COLORADO AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SOUTHEASTWARD IS
HIGHLY ANTICIPATED. FOG APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL SURGE FURTHER
EAST THAN FORECAST EARLIER THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...HIGHLY
CONFIDENT IN FOG ARRIVE AT KGLD WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 SM.
AT KMCK...MAINTAINED A MVFR VISIBILITY BUT AM CONCERNED THAT DENSE
FOG MAY APPROACH THERE AS WELL. DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
LOWER KMCK VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING. AT THAT TIME...LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME DOMINANT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079-080.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
428 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NE THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO
TOWARD JAMES BAY. AT THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTH INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK
RIDGE WAS NOTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IR SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATED LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI...BUT
WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE COUNTY.
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PASS ACROSS THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE ONLY WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AS BEST
DYNAMICS/LIFT REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE UPPER LAKES ALONG PATH OF
SHORTWAVE AS NOTED BY 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV FIELDS.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAK 850-800 MB FGEN FORCING AND WEAK
INSTABILITY (CAPES LESS THAN 100 J/KG) ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE ERN
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. EVEN WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE...MIXING
THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS 6-7C SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL
KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER THERE (LOWER 60S).
TONIGHT...AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
EVENING...EXPECT A CLEARING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY
QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR IN NW FLOW AS 8H TEMPS DROP NEAR 0C OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z WED. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LOW CLOUDS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE EAST SO WL CONTINUE TO KEEP A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER THERE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
30S INTERIOR WEST WHERE PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TO LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES OUR FCST...BEHIND
THE EXITING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE
SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AROUND 21Z WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
QUICKLY SHIFTING E ACROSS FAR E ONTARIO AND LAKE HURON BY 06Z.
LOOK FOR THE NEARING RAIN MAKER /SFC LOW/ OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF THE N AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE 0.4-0.8IN OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...AND EXIT E IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW ACROSS UPPER MI IS NOT EXACT...BUT THE CONSENSUS FOLLOWED
THE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST PRECIP ABOUT 20MI FARTHER
S THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST. OTHERWISE...FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE. TO SHOW THE UNCERTAINTY...THE SFC LOW POSITION AT 00Z FRIDAY
OFF THE CANADIAN IS OVER DRUMMOND ISLAND...OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR OFF THE NAM...OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI FROM THE
SREF...AND ACROSS THE N HALF OF LAKE MI ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS
RAIN WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AS AT NWS MQT WE ARE AT A 6.96IN DEFICIT
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR...AND A 2.8 INCH DEFICIT SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
ANOTHER WARM UP SATURDAY-MONDAY...RETURNING TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S
FOR START OF THE NEXT WEEK. COULD HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. CAN/T RULE OUT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
ECMWF SHOW THE NEXT LOW CROSSING FROM MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC.
THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE LOW...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER TROUGH.
WILL SEE HOW THE FCST CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE EXTENDED SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT MORE CONSISTENT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
LOW TRACKING ACROSS N ONTARIO MONDAY. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP FOR US...AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE STAYS ACROSS CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL ALLOW VFR CIGS TO PERSIST
AT KSAW INTO LATE THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT KCMX AND KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. A LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH WINDS
PEAKING AROUND 25KTS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN FROM THE SW LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
407 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NE THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO
TOWARD JAMES BAY. AT THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTH INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK
RIDGE WAS NOTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IR SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATED LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI...BUT
WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE COUNTY.
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PASS ACROSS THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE ONLY WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AS BEST
DYNAMICS/LIFT REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE UPPER LAKES ALONG PATH OF
SHORTWAVE AS NOTED BY 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV FIELDS.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAK 850-800 MB FGEN FORCING AND WEAK
INSTABILITY (CAPES LESS THAN 100 J/KG) ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE ERN
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. EVEN WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE...MIXING
THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS 6-7C SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL
KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER THERE (LOWER 60S).
TONIGHT...AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
EVENING...EXPECT A CLEARING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY
QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR IN NW FLOW AS 8H TEMPS DROP NEAR 0C OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z WED. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LOW CLOUDS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE EAST SO WL CONTINUE TO KEEP A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER THERE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
30S INTERIOR WEST WHERE PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TO LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BE DEPARTING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD....ALLOWING A HIGH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT DEPARTS...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS. 12Z NAM WAS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE ON THAT IDEA (MORE THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN AND OTHER MODELS)...BOTH WITH THE MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR...SO WILL AT LEAST SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER LOWER LEVEL
AIR WORKS BACK IN. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WOULD EXPECT DIURNAL HEATING TO LEAD TO CU DEVELOPMENT
AND WILL SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN
AREAS.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE TIED TO A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL
COME ONSHORE TOMORROW. THE WAVE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...MODELS STILL DIFFERING SOME ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND IN TURN THE SWATH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW. OVERALL...LIKE A GENERAL COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WITH THE LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND THEN QUICKLY DEPARTING ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE U.P.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TIED TO THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST
RAIN (STRONG 925-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALIGNED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.P.).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW...LEADING TO A
NICE DAY ON FRIDAY. BUT THAT WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MID-HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRUSH
THE AREA SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. BEST MOISTURE/FORCING
STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW...SO WILL JUST SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL ALLOW VFR CIGS TO PERSIST
AT KSAW INTO LATE THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT KCMX AND KIWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. A LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH WINDS
PEAKING AROUND 25KTS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN FROM THE SW LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
133 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED WSW MID/UPPER LEVEL NRN STREAM
FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SE MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM ERN MANITOBA
INTO THE NW CORNER OF MN. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILED FROM
SRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. VIS LOOP INDICATED LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI BUT WITH SOME CLEARING FAR WEST AS
DEVELOPING SW FLOW BRINGS IN SOME DRIER AIR. WEBCAMS...RADAR AND SFC
VSBY INDICATED THAT THE PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM NEAR ESC-MNM AND OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPPER MI HAS DIMINISHED.
TONIGHT... EXPECT THE MANITOBA SHRTWV TO LIFT ENE TO NEAR JAMES BAY
BY 12Z...DRAGGING THE FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. 925-850 MB WINDS
VEERING FROM SW TO W SHOULD HELP BRING A PERIOD OF CLEARING.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN LATE. SO...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP OFF
QUICKLY...EXPECT MINS ONLY TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S BEFORE CLOUDS
MOVE BACK IN. SOME DRIZZLE MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE THIS
EVENING BUT THE VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DRYING SHOULD ALSO HELP
TO END ANY LIGHT PCPN.
TUE...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA. THE
STRONGEST 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE SHRTWV WILL REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAK FORCING INTO THE
ERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. EVEN WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE...MIXING
THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 7C SHOULD MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BE DEPARTING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD....ALLOWING A HIGH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT DEPARTS...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS. 12Z NAM WAS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE ON THAT IDEA (MORE THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN AND OTHER MODELS)...BOTH WITH THE MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR...SO WILL AT LEAST SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER LOWER LEVEL
AIR WORKS BACK IN. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WOULD EXPECT DIURNAL HEATING TO LEAD TO CU DEVELOPMENT
AND WILL SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN
AREAS.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE TIED TO A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL
COME ONSHORE TOMORROW. THE WAVE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...MODELS STILL DIFFERING SOME ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND IN TURN THE SWATH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW. OVERALL...LIKE A GENERAL COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WITH THE LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND THEN QUICKLY DEPARTING ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE U.P.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TIED TO THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST
RAIN (STRONG 925-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALIGNED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.P.).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW...LEADING TO A
NICE DAY ON FRIDAY. BUT THAT WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MID-HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRUSH
THE AREA SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. BEST MOISTURE/FORCING
STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW...SO WILL JUST SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL ALLOW VFR CIGS TO PERSIST
AT KSAW INTO LATE THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT KCMX AND KIWD. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM A HIGH IN
QUEBEC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT MAINLY OVER WEST AND CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW
MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH WINDS PEAKING AROUND 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
353 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2015
Scattered sprinkles/light rain showers have developed over
northwestern MO early this morning ahead of a weak vort max in
northeastern KS. The area with light sprinkles also coincided with
an area of moisture convergence between H8-H7 as well as a pocket of
steeper lapse rates. A few sprinkles or light rain showers could
move into central or northeastern MO this morning.
The slow warming trend continues today with afternoon highs expected
to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. This should lead to highs
in the 70s across most of the area, although a few sites in
southeastern MO and/or southwestern IL could reach the lower 80s
depending on how quickly the clouds clear out.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2015
Forecast trends will remain essentially unchanged in this
forecast package: dry and mild weather is expected tonight and
into Wednesday, followed by a chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the Thursday-Friday time frame as upper level shortwave and
trof and associated cold front work their way across the
Mississippi Valley. The only real change in the forecast was a
slight slowing of the southward progression of PoPs across the
area, as all of the 00z guidance was just a bit slower with the
shortwave and cold front than earlier solutions. The slower
solutions also dovetails with the idea of holding onto low chance
PoPs over southern sections of the CWA on Friday. Have decided to
maintain highest PoPs for this event at around 50% for
now...although MET and MAV are considerably lower operational
ECMWF-based MOS guidance is indicating likely PoPs in many areas
with the fropa. Additional adjustments to PoPs will probably be
necessary with time as the details become a bit more clear.
Daytime highs will be above average on Wednesday and Thursday with
highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s. However, temperatures will be
dipping below seasonal norms by Friday, as the post-frontal cool-
down shaves some 10-15 degrees off of max temps.
Medium range solutions are still indicating that this cool down will
be brief, as the progressive UA regime across the CONUS allows a
strong ridge to build back into the nations`s midsection for the
start of next week. Guidance is suggesting 850MB temps of at least
16-18C on Monday, which would certainly support highs back in the
80s over most of the CWA. Lack of moisture and any significant
dynamics/lift suggest dry weather will accompany this warmup.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2015
Weak upper level system will move across the region te next 24
hours bringing back the northwest flow aloft. Main question is
will the mvfr clouds return: all sites vfr at taf issuance. Have
gone VFR for now with the idea that extensive mid and high clouds
will prevent widespreas redevelopment. Some sprinkles possible
from the mid clouds from the upper level system. Will watch cloud
trends closely for COU and UIN.
Specifics for KSTL: RAP noses in some lower RH values from the
east. This along with the mid and high clouds should keep STL VFR.
Fingers are crossed.
JPK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 77 61 79 63 / 5 10 5 5
Quincy 74 56 77 59 / 10 10 10 10
Columbia 74 57 78 60 / 20 10 10 10
Jefferson City 74 57 78 59 / 20 10 10 10
Salem 77 57 79 59 / 5 10 5 5
Farmington 76 56 77 57 / 5 10 10 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
126 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AND TOMORROW. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A FEW MORE CLOUDS, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
AND A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT TUESDAY...KEEPING WITH PREVIOUS TREND OF MORE
CLOUDS ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST CHANGES ON
TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST
SATELLITE PICS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH
SOME BREAKS OVER NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
SOUTH. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND HOURLY
TEMPS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND TRENDS. CLOUDS WILL
PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OR FROST IN MOST AREAS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SEEING SOME LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST VERMONT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY FAIR WEATHER DAY FOR
TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
MID 60S IN THE WARMER PARTS OF OUR CWA ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN BE QUIET AND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AS AREA WILL MAINLY
BE CLOUDY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM OUR WEST. THE WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THINK WILL MAINLY
JUST HAVE CLOUDS FOR OUR AREA AND HAVE MENTIONED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND VERY WEAK DYNAMICS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO BE MILD WITH CLOUDS REMAINING OVER THE REGION
DESPITE WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT. MIN TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT MONDAY...SEASONAL EARLY FALL TEMPERATURES AND A
PERIODIC THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUED TO BE OFFERED FOR THE
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE (PWATS TO 1.25 INCHES) SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION
ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE 7-DAY PERIOD.
GIVEN THIS SYSTEM IS OF MARITIME ORIGIN AND WITH MORE OF AN
EASTERLY (AS OPPOSED TO A SOUTHERLY) TRAJECTORY, THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS REALLY WON`T CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH BY NEXT WEEKEND. THUS
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 35 TO
45 DEGREE RANGE STILL LOOK REASONABLY ON TRACK. TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY MAY ENCROACH FROM
THE NORTH WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE
SOMEWHAT AT ODDS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM, WITH LATEST TRENDS OF THE GFS BACKING OFF SOMEWHAT ON
ITS EARLIER SURGE. WILL TAKE THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET AT THIS
POINT, OFFERING AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE DISCREPANCIES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR MIST AT MPV.
METARS AND INFRARED SATELLITE SHOW BKN/OVC VFR DECK (BASES
050-070) ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT RUT. LOWER-LEVEL RH PROGS
FROM THE LATEST RAP MODEL SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. DESPITE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS INTRODUCE SOME QUESTION AS TO FOG/MIST
POTENTIAL. IT`S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THE CLOUDS MAY HAMPER MUCH IF
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. I`VE TRENDED MPV TAF TO A MORE OPTIMISTIC
VISBY FORECAST (MVFR/IFR) WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT SOME
THINNING OF THIS CLOUD BANK ON TUESDAY BUT IT MAY BE SLOW TO DO
SO. WINDS LIGHT /TERRAIN- DRIVEN.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF REGIONAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK 07-13Z EACH DAY.
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MFVR CIGS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHEST SHOWER
COVERAGE 12Z-20Z FRIDAY.
12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...RJS/SLW
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
410 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FOG THIS
MORNING.
CURRENTLY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE LOW CIGS PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
CLEAR OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. AS THE HRRR PREDICTED EARLIER...AREAS OF FOG
COMMON OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR
ADVERTISES THESE LOW VSBYS ERODING AROUND 15Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS MAY INDEED BE THE
CASE. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF THE FOG IN THE HWO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. CLOUDS CLEAR MID TO
LATE MORNING LEADING TO A PLEASANT/SUNNY FALL AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS 55-65 AND LIGHT WINDS.
INCREASING RETURN FLOW TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WARMER WEST IN THE 40S WHERE THE STRONGER RETURN FLOW
WILL BE...30S EAST. CLOUDS INCREASE WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING EAST-
SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WHILE LOW WORKS EASTERLY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD SHORT WAVE WORKS THROUGH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS APPROACH AND COOL FRONT
WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WORKS IN. WILL KEEP LOW MENTION
OF THUNDER GOING WITH MODEST INSTABILITY STILL NOTED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH
A CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER.
WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OVER
THE AREA.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE THE START OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING QUESTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED AT KMOT AND POSSIBLY KISN THROUGH 13-15Z THIS
MORNING...AND FOG IS FORECAST AT KDIK PRODUCING IFR OR LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN NOW AND 16Z. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT
KBIS AND KJMS WITH A POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS PERIOD NEAR 13-16Z
TUESDAY. HOWEVER ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME AND WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF MVFR CIGS FOR KBIS/KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
110 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
DROPPED LOW TEMPERATURES AS WE ARE FALLING BELOW FORECAST MINS
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH MANY
OBSERVING SITES REPORTING LOW/MID 30S. EXCEPTION IS MY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 40S ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARE KEEPING THINGS UP. THIS AREA TO SHALL
FALL AS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WILL MAINTAIN FOG MANY LOCATIONS...WITH AREAS OF FOG SOUTHWEST.
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE FOG HEADLINES BECOME
WARRANTED. KHEI HAD 1/4 MILE IN FOG AN HOUR AGO...WITH BAKER MT
ALSO OBSERVING DENSE FOG.
BACKED OFF A BIT ON LOW STRATUS ADVECTING INTO MY NORTH. STRATUS
IS THERE...JUST NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL
CHANGE ONCE LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE NORTH...THEN FULLY EXPECT
THE LOW STRATUS TO PUSH SOUTH MORE IN EARNEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING WAS
PRODUCING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ALONG WITH A GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY
FOR MOST OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE
IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR NORTH...FROM CROSBY EAST TO ROLLA. A POCKET OF GENERALLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS EXISTS SOUTH OF THIS AREA...UNTIL REACHING SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WERE AGAIN OBSERVED...BUT SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE CLOUDS/FOG. FOG
HAS DEVELOPED AT BEACH WITH VISIBILITY AT 4SM. THE LATEST HRRR
ADVERTISES LOW VSBYS EXPANDING IN THE WEST/SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 09Z-
15Z TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IF TRENDS CONTINUE PER LATEST HRRR.
THE AREA OF CLOUDS IN THE FAR NORTH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z
TUESDAY...AND THEN APPROACH BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN BY 12Z TUESDAY.
EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CENTRAL IN THE MORNING WITH A
RETURN TO A SUNNY SKY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TWO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE FIRST AREA RESIDES IN THE NORTH...CURRENTLY NEAR THE
BORDER. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS/BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OF THE
RAP13/HRRR SHIFT THIS AREA BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RAP13/HRRR ARE INITIALIZING THE
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NOW...AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALLOW THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST.
THE SECOND AREA OF OVERCAST CONDITIONS CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER ANY CLEARING MAY BE BRIEF AS FOG IS EXPECTED
IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA PER LATEST HRRR...AND CLOUDS MENTIONED
ABOVE FROM THE NORTH MAY REACH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARD 12Z TUESDAY.
ADJUSTED SKY GRID UPWARD FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY MENTION
NORTH THIS EVENING AND SHIFTING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR NOW SOUTHWEST WILL SUFFICE
AND WILL LOOK AT THIS AGAIN WITH THE HRRR LATER THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CLOUDS VERY SLOW TO CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTH. SLOW BUT STEADY CLEARING
CENTRAL AND NORTH. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTH...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S
BUT REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME FOG ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT 33-36 NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.
ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL
SIDE. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH 53-55 AND 60 TO 65 SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE OVER
MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY
NIGHT TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. AT UPPER LEVELS...A DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE OVER THE DAKOTAS...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN
PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE US
SOUTHWEST AND 4-CORNERS REGION WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE.
TUESDAY NIGHT THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ROCKIES RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWS IT INTO THE ROCKIES...AS
THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE US SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO INCORPORATE INTO THE
MORE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES. THE BEGINNINGS OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MERGES WITH THE SOUTHWEST LOW THAT
CONTINUES TO MERGE INTO THE WESTERLIES. THIS MERGING WILL BRING
PLENTY OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO NORTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SOUTH-NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS - AND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON A SURFACE COLD FRONT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE WHOLE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENDING FROM CENTRAL TO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
ENOUGH CAPE AND SHEAR FOR A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARM DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
DRY...BREEZY...AND COOLER THURSDAY WITH HIGHS OF 55 TO 65.
AFTER A COOL MORNING FRIDAY...WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE 70S IN THE WEST FRIDAY...AND OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO KMOT AND POSSIBLY KISN 08Z-16Z THIS
MORNING...AND FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KDIK PRODUCING IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z-16Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS EXPECTED
AT KBIS AND KJMS WITH A POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS PERIOD NEAR 13-16Z
TUESDAY. HOWEVER ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME AND WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF MVFR CIGS FOR KBIS/KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
244 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 06Z...IR SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR DATA ARE NOT VERY
BULLISH TAKING LOW CLOUDS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE RT 6
CORRIDOR. EXPECT CLR SKIES TO PREVAIL FROM I-80 SOUTH TO THE MD
LINE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. DAYBREAK TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER IN THE NRN TIER WHERE SKIES ARE M/CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG
WILL SLOWLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THRU THE PRE DAWN HOURS ESPECIALLY
IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN VALLEYS WHERE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL OCCUR.
MORNING VALLEY FOG SHOULD GIVE WAY TO FILTERED SUNSHINE TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS WORKING EWD FROM THE OH VALLEY WHICH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA INTO TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT RANGING FROM THE THE U40S TO M50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING A LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE SKIRTING EWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN
TIER CONUS MAY TOUCH OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN ALLEGHENIES...BUT THE OVERALL LACK OF FORCING AND
DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY...AND
THEREFORE WILL NOT MENTION PCPN ATTM. MDLS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT
IN A VERY LIGHT TO NO PCPN SCENARIO FOR THE AREA THRU MIDWEEK.
EXPECT M/CLOUDY BUT STILL PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS REMAINING
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE EARLY OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THURSDAY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE STG WAA/SW
FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE RACING EWD
FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THRU THE GRT LKS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT CARVING OUT A DECENT MID-LVL TROUGH OVER
THE OH VLY INTO FRIDAY...WITH ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
MOISTURE FLUX VALUES SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FLOW STAYS GENERALLY NW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
GFS HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHING NORTHERN COUNTIES ON
SUNDAY. SO TOSSED IN MENTION OF LOW POPS THERE. OUTSIDE OF
THAT...BROAD WEAK RIDGING WORKS IN SUN AND MON AS SURFACE HIGH
OVER IL/MO WEAKENS AS IT DRIFTS TO THE SE.
SW FLOW INCREASES HEADING INTO TUE...AS ANOTHER TROUGH POTENTIALLY
APPROACHES FOR NEXT MIDWEEK.
TEMPS THIS TUE INTO WED WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WED NIGHT...WITH READINGS IN THE 40S
AREAWIDE...AND SOME NORTHERN MTN VALLEYS LIKELY SLIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S IF HIGH CLOUDS DON/T STREAM IN. A BIT MILDER AGAIN THU
NIGHT WITH WARM FRONT. THEN BEHIND COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND
HIGHS LOOK TO BE JUST A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
SOME CLOUDS NEAR BFD. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS...BFD WENT OVER TO
FOG SINCE I CAME IN AT MIDNIGHT. OTHER SITES MAY SEE AN HOUR
OR SO OF FOG LATER.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A DECENT EARLY FALL DAY.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND NOTED ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA
AT 03Z. CHALLENGE IN THE FCST TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH FOG CAN FORM AS
A LAYER OF LOW/MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLIDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
CLOUDS HAVE TAKEN LONGER THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NW MTNS
LATE THIS EVENING AND GIVEN 03Z DWPT DEPRESSION AT KBFD...NOW FEEL
A PERIOD OF IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KBFD BEFORE ARRIVAL OF THICKER
CLOUD COVER ARND 08Z. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SOME MENTION OF VIS
REDUCTIONS AT KUNV/KAOO BTWN 05Z-10Z BASED ON CURRENT DWPT DEP AND
LATE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS. PERHAPS THE BEST CHC OF FOG WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT IN VICINITY OF KMDT/KLNS...WHERE ANY CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL ARND DAWN. HAVE TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR
THESE AIRFIELDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND LATEST DOWNSCALED
NAM...WHICH SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ARND KMDT/KLNS EARLY
TUE AM.
ANY FOG THAT MIGHT FORM SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE AM. MODEL DATA
SUPPORTS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS THE REST
OF TUESDAY...DESPITE A LINGERING CLOUD DECK ARND 4-5KFT.
OUTLOOK...
WED...AM FOG POSSIBLE...ESP KBFD.
THU...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE.
FRI...SHOWERS/MVFR CIGS POSS.
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
252 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE MAIN...IF NOT THE ONLY...FORECAST ISSUES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
ARE CLOUDS AND THE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY WAVE WILL BARELY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
THE W/SW LATE TONIGHT AS MODELS ARE SLOWER ON THAT APPROACH...AND
SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY NOT AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT MOISTURE LAYER AND CLOUD COVER IS CENTERED MOSTLY IN THE 800-
750MB RANGE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER CLOUDS SOUTHEAST. THE FINER TUNE
DETAIL SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM12 AND RAP KEEP THIS MOIST LAYER JUST
THICK ENOUGH TO RESIST ANY UNEXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WHICH COULD CAUSE
THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP QUICKLY...SO THEY SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL BEING
SCOURED/SHEARED OUT DURING THE DAY BY DRYING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH. THIS DRYING SURGE APPEARS TO WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY AS IT PUSHED
SOUTHEAST SO HAVE GONE SLOWER FAR SOUTHEAST ON THE DECREASE...AS
WELL AS FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THE DRY PUSH WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING
BLOW. THE DECREASE SHOULD PROCEED SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. BY THE WAY...THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE SEEN WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A DRYING SURGE FROM THE SOUTH KEEP FILLING IN AND PRETTY
MUCH ADDING AUTHORITY TO HOW THESE TWO MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM QUITE AS MUCH AS WE HAVE BEEN GOING FOR
DUE TO THE DELAYED CLEARING WITH HIGHS TODAY CLOSE TO 70...AT MOST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. CERTAINLY PLEASANT ENOUGH WITH THE FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS.
IN CONTRAST TO THE CLOUDIER PICTURE TODAY...TONIGHT SHOULD SEE FEWER
CLOUDS THAN WHAT WE WERE THINKING BEFORE WITH THE SLOWER APPROACH OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE
NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO 50 PLUS
ALONG THE MIGHTY MISSOURI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL TRY TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LIFT IS NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND FOCUS IS POINTED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. NEVERTHELESS...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERHAPS EVEN A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUILD SOUTHWEST ALONG AND ADVANCING FRONT LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF
HOLDS SECONDARY ELEVATED MOISTURE LAYER ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON
THURSDAY AND FOCUSES AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO EARLY EVENING. NEITHER NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA
OF ASCENT...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
AFTER A COOLER FRIDAY...THE HEAT BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S
SATURDAY...AND 80S SEEM LIKELY ON SUNDAY. THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK
REMAINS A FAVORABLE ONE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
845 AM MST TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
STATE TODAY AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT THE COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE LOW WE`VE BEEN STARING AT THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS
NOW IN WESTERN ARIZONA ON A TRACK FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWED ADDITIONAL DRYING
BETWEEN 600-700HPA AS EXPECTED...BUT THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS NOW
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH
ARE NOW PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE LOW.
TWO SPOKES OF ENERGY ARE NOTABLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING...WITH THE FIRST
WEAKER ONE PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...AND A SECOND
STRONGER ONE THROUGH YUMA COUNTY ATTM. WE`LL ADD IN SOME DECENT
SHEAR (BUT NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY)...AND A LITTLE SOLAR
INSOLATION TO FIRE SOME STORMS THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PIMA
COUNTY BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER THAT THE
BEST SHEAR AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS NOW LOOKS
LIKE IT`S COMING TOGETHER NORTH OF TUCSON...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
PINAL...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES.
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/16Z.
SCT TO LOCALLY BKN-OVC CLOUDS 6-10 KFT WITH ISOLD -SHRA AND THEN
SCTD -SHRA/TS AFTER 06/18Z AREA-WIDE. GUSTY WINDS PSBL AGAIN AFTER
18Z ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH TSRA AS WELL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY
EAST OF TUCSON WITH LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MIDWEEK...THEN MODERATING LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...LOW FILLING A BIT BUT STILL HAS SOME PUNCH AS IT
PUSHES SLOWLY INTO WESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER STILL A LITTLE MARGINAL WITH SOME DRYING ABOVE H7...BUT
PICKING UP AGAIN A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WRAPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE
LOW WITH 1 INCH VALUES AVAILABLE THERE. THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON AN
ENHANCED SPOKE OF ENERGY FROM THE BASE OF THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING IS FORMING
INITIALLY THROUGH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY INTO PINAL COUNTY BUT IN A
MODEST SHEAR REGION. THE MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD SEES THIS
AREA OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COME TOGETHER WITH A NICE SHEAR REGIME
THROUGH EASTERN PIMA COUNTY FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
TUCSON METRO. BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE FAVORED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM AREA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN PINAL AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS A THREAT ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...STORM MOTION WILL BE ON THE BRISK SIDE SO WE WOULD
NEED SOME TRAINING TO SEE ANY FLOOD THREATS. MOST LIKELY TRAINING
AREAS WOULD PROBABLY BE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN SLOPES NEAR
MOUNTAINS (POSSIBLY INCLUDING CATALINA FOOTHILLS).
INFLUENCES OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY EAST OF TUCSON AS IT WOBBLES
THROUGH.
ACTUALLY...THIS LOW IS GOING TO FINALLY LOSE ANY LAST VESTIGES OF
HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT LATER TODAY AND WILL THEN RESPOND TO MEAN
FLOW INFLUENCES BELOW 40N...WHICH MEANS IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
FILL AND SAG DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE NEAR THE
WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THEN RETROGRADE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MEXICO UNDER THE RIDGE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A MATTER OF FACT
IT`S VERY LIKELY WE WILL STILL BE TALKING ABOUT THIS LOW INFLUENCING
OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS IT TRIES TO COME BY FOR ANOTHER PASS FROM
THE WEST.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A GENERAL WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL AS A RELATIVE DRYING TREND.
HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AROUND SOME MOUNTAIN AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS AS THE LOW REMAINS IN OUR GENERAL
VICINITY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
315 AM MST TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
STATE TODAY AND BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS. IN
ADDITION...EXPECT THE COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS AT
TIMES. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LOW FILLING A BIT BUT STILL HAS SOME PUNCH AS IT
PUSHES SLOWLY INTO WESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER STILL A LITTLE MARGINAL WITH SOME DRYING ABOVE H7...BUT
PICKING UP AGAIN A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WRAPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE
LOW WITH 1 INCH VALUES AVAILABLE THERE. THE HRRR IS PICKING UP ON AN
ENHANCED SPOKE OF ENERGY FROM THE BASE OF THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS MORNING IS FORMING
INITIALLY THROUGH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY INTO PINAL COUNTY BUT IN A
MODEST SHEAR REGION. THE MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD SEES THIS
AREA OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COME TOGETHER WITH A NICE SHEAR REGIME
THROUGH EASTERN PIMA COUNTY FOR ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
TUCSON METRO. BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THE FAVORED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM AREA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN PINAL AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS A THREAT ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. HOWEVER...STORM MOTION WILL BE ON THE BRISK SIDE SO WE WOULD
NEED SOME TRAINING TO SEE ANY FLOOD THREATS. MOST LIKELY TRAINING
AREAS WOULD PROBABLY BE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN SLOPES NEAR
MOUNTAINS (POSSIBLY INCLUDING CATALINA FOOTHILLS).
INFLUENCES OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY EAST OF TUCSON AS IT WOBBLES
THROUGH.
ACTUALLY...THIS LOW IS GOING TO FINALLY LOSE ANY LAST VESTIGES OF
HIGHER LATITUDE SUPPORT LATER TODAY AND WILL THEN RESPOND TO MEAN
FLOW INFLUENCES BELOW 40N...WHICH MEANS IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
FILL AND SAG DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE NEAR THE
WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THEN RETROGRADE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MEXICO UNDER THE RIDGE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A MATTER OF FACT
IT`S VERY LIKELY WE WILL STILL BE TALKING ABOUT THIS LOW INFLUENCING
OUR WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS IT TRIES TO COME BY FOR ANOTHER PASS FROM
THE WEST.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A GENERAL WARMING
TREND LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL AS A RELATIVE DRYING TREND.
HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS AROUND SOME MOUNTAIN AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS AS THE LOW REMAINS IN OUR GENERAL
VICINITY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/12Z.
SCT TO LOCALLY BKN-OVC CLOUDS 6-10 KFT WITH ISOLD -SHRA AND THEN
SCTD -SHRA/TS AFTER 06/18Z AREA-WIDE. GUSTY WINDS PSBL AGAIN AFTER
18Z ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH TSRA AS WELL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY
EAST OF TUCSON WITH LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MIDWEEK...THEN MODERATING LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/RASMUSSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
919 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
UPDATED FOR MORE CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
CURRENTLY...
UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED VICINITY LAS VEGAS. QUITE A FEW SHOWERS/TSRA
WERE NOTED OVER UTAH AND ACROSS W CO. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ALONG THE CONTDVD AT 3 AM...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY IN THE N
SANGRES. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE RATON MESA IN NM...AND UP IN NORTHEAST CO.
TODAY...
EXPECT TO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FAR E PLAINS AND N EL PASO COUNTY.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/TSRA OVER THE MTNS
TODAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT ALOFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO GET ADVECTED NWD AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST. OVERALL BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BY LATER IN THE DAY...PRECIP WILL DEVELOP FARTHER
EAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AS DIFFLUENT FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES OVER THIS REGION.
SOME SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH MARGINAL CAPE. WE MAY SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...AND LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME RED CORES MOVING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION LATER TODAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED SOME AREAS NW OF PIKES PEAK
RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN YDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM AGAIN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F
ON THE PLAINS...AND 60S AND 70S VALLEYS.
TONIGHT...
EXPECT MORE MID LVL CLOUDS ON THE PLAINS. OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH BEST CHANCES REMAINING
OVER THE SW MTNS AND PIKES PEAK REGION. UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE
BACK TOWARDS THE S-SW LATER TONIGHT. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN COLORADO...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS. EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER TO
TURN DRY AND WARM BY THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE WEAK ENERGY
MOVES ACROSS COLORADO IN INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE MOST ACTIVE DAY APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
ENERGY WRAPPING NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING...INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...EXPANDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS FAVORING
THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND RATON MESA REGIONS AND
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERN
COLORADO BECOMING MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO WORK EASTWARD ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT EVEN LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH GENERALLY 70S ACROSS
THE REGION.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...A GOOD 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
WE SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES..KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. LOTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION NEXT 24H AS UPPER LOW KEEPS ADVECTING MSTR OVER THE AREA.
BELIEVE MID LVL CLOUDINESS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING OVER THE
TAF SITES...BUT IF WE CLEAR OUT THEN I CANT RULE IT OUT. WE WILL
ALSO HAVE PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TODAY...
...BUILDING SEAS AND ROUGH SURF WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING
MARINE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS WITH SPOTS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COMING
ASHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY AND TRACKING TOWARD SEMINOLE...LAKE...ORANGE
AND NORTH BREVARD COUNTIES. THE 9AM OBS SHOWED LOW CLOUDS WITH
CEILINGS BETWEEN 400 AND 1000 FEET. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD MOTION WAS TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE THE LOW CLOUDINESS
MAY TAKE A WHILE TO LIFT/BURN OFF. LOCAL WRF AND HRRR RUNS SHOWING
THAT THE LOW CLOUDINESS BURNING OFF/LIFTING AROUND NOON.
MORNING UPDATE TO ADDRESS WIND GRIDS.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
THE WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING. LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH ARE COMBINING TO
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...ALSO EXPECTING A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE
ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COAST AND NEIGHBORING ATLANTIC WATERS.
WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP CHANCES...MOISTURE AND THERMAL PROFILE LOOK
MEAGER WITH LINGERING DRY AIR AND A PRONOUNCED INVERSION PRESENT
ABOVE 850MB. HAVE LIMITED POPS TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF CWA AS WIND
SURGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN NEAR-SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...THOUGH SHOWER COVERAGE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY SPARSE.
KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS PERSISTENT N/NE
FLOW CONTINUES TO MODIFY LOCAL AIRMASS. RETAINED POPS FOR COASTAL
SECTIONS WHERE CONVERGENCE AND N/NE FLOW THROUGH 800MB SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS. SHOWERS FORMING IN THIS TYPE OF
FLOW REGIME RARELY HAVE ANY IMPACT WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...SO
KEPT POPS OUT FOR THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.
A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE JOAQUIN ALONG WITH
BUILDING SEAS FROM THE NORTHERLY WIND SURGE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.
WED...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE FROM NE FL WILL MOVE SE
AND ALLOW A SURGE OF STRONGER LOW LVL N-NE FLOW TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE ATLC THAT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS
BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES AROUND 40 PCT WITH LOWER RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20-30 PCT.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S VOLUSIA COAST TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND SRN
SECTIONS.
THU...SFC LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH REMNANTS OF THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SEBASTIAN INLET OFFSHORE. HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLC WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW FOR BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WITH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES. LOW LVL ONSHORE FLOW...ADEQUATE MOISTURE
LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POPS FROM 30-40 PCT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS MAINLY
INLAND.
FRI...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFFSHORE
ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS. ALOFT...WNW FLOW AT 20 KNOTS AT
H5 WILL PROMOTE STEERING FLOW TWD THE EAST COAST WITH ANY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AS SEA BREEZES MOVE INLAND IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS LOWER 80S VOLUSIA COAST TO MID-UPPER 80S
INTERIOR AND SRN SECTIONS.
SAT-TUE...ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE SE ATLC COAST
SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TWD THE SE STATES. LOW LVL FLOW WILL
VEER QUICKLY TO THE NE/E OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POPS IN THE 20-30
PCT RANGE FOR SAT/SUN AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY
DROPPING A FEW DEGS ON SUNDAY. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SE ACROSS THE ERN GULF SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CUT-OFF
CLOSED LOW NEAR THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR E CENTRAL FL WITH RAIN CHANCES CREEPING BACK
TO THE SCATTERED RANGE FROM 30-40 PCT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CEILINGS SHOULD HAVE LIFTED BY NOON PER LOCAL WRF AND HRRR RUNS.
UNTIL THEN...PREVAILING IFR KISM-KTIX NORTH WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF KTIX-KMCO.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBS INDICATE LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS
SPREADING SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS FOR A
PERIOD FROM KTIX/KMCO/KISM AND POINTS NORTHWARD. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
BURN OFF SLOWLY THIS MORNING WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS NORTHERLY AND INCREASING A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM KMLB NORTHWARD.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...SCRIPPS BUOYS RECORDING 3 TO 4 FOOT LONG
PERIOD SEAS OUT TO 6NM. THE CMAN SITES WERE RECORDING NW WINDS 5 TO
10 KNOTS. BUOY 009 AT 20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL WAS RECORDING WNW
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 6 TO 7 FOOT SEAS WITH A 5 FOOT 11 SECOND
ENE SWELL COMPONENT.
KEEPING THE HIGH RIP RISK AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET AS A
WIND SURGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET. WINDS NOT AS STRONG SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET BUT THE
NORTHERLY WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS PUSHING AGAINST THE GULF STREAM SHOULD
PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS BEYOND 20NM AND EXERCISE CAUTION
SEAS...TO 6 FEET...OUT TO 20NM.
UPDATE TO THE WINDS.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TODAY/TONIGHT...CONTINUED SWELL FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
JOAQUIN IMPACTING LOCAL COASTAL WATERS...UP TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE EVEN FURTHER THIS MORNING AS
SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE PUSHES SOUTH. SEAS WILL
BUILD UP TO 7 FEET OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 9 FEET
FURTHER OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED THIS MORNING
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD.
WED...NORTHERLY WIND TO 15 KNOTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A LOW OFFSHORE
WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6-8 FT OFFSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM MAKING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. WINDS WILL VEER TO NE WED NIGHT AND E ON THU WITH WINDS TO 10-
15 KNOTS ACROSS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN WHERE HIGHER SEAS WILL LINGER.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FRIDAY WITH DECREASING WINDS BUT A 4-5
FT SWELL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS BETWEEN 3.1 AND
3.0 FT...0.2 TO 0.3 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LATEST
OBSERVATION AT ASTOR AT 8:30 AM TUE 6 OCT 2015 WAS 3.1 FEET. FLOOD
STAGE IS 2.8 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 79 71 83 70 / 30 20 20 20
MCO 84 70 86 70 / 10 10 20 10
MLB 83 72 85 73 / 20 20 40 30
VRB 84 71 84 70 / 20 20 40 30
LEE 82 68 85 68 / 10 10 20 10
SFB 82 69 85 70 / 20 10 20 10
ORL 84 69 86 71 / 10 10 20 10
FPR 83 70 86 69 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
FORECASTS/GRIDS......WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1004 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Most of the fog has lifted, but still seeing some pockets of 1/2
to 1 mile visibility persisting from Taylorville east to the
Indiana border. This will continue to improve over the next hour
or two. Still quite a bit of low level moisture trapped below 800
mb, with the 925 mb RH plot off the RAP showing cloudiness
persisting near Champaign/Danville most of the day, so high
temperatures in that area have been lowered a few degrees. The
remainder of the forecast area should see some breaks developing,
especially during the afternoon, which should help temperatures
respond quickly similar to yesterday. Thus, have only made minor
temperature changes elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Main short-term forecast challenge will once again be cloud cover
and its impact on high temperatures today. Much like last
night...low clouds are currently developing over northern Illinois.
With surface high pressure still in place from the western Great
Lakes to the Central Plains...northeasterly low-level flow will
allow the clouds to spread S/SW into the KILX CWA over the next few
hours. 08z/3am obs show IFR ceilings along/northeast of a Lacon
to Paris line...with mid/high clouds blanketing the remainder of
the area. HRRR suggests these lower clouds will spread as far
south as the I-70 corridor shortly after dawn...resulting in
overcast conditions across the board to start the day. In
addition...quite a bit of fog is developing under the low cloud
deck. While models do not indicate the fog will become
dense...visibilities will be restricted to less than 1 mile at
times...especially along/northeast of a Lacon...to Decatur...to
Paris line. Will carry areas of fog across this portion of the
CWA through 14-15z...with patchy fog elsewhere. As was the case
yesterday...the fog and lower clouds will dissipate toward
midday...however a short-wave trough tracking eastward out of the
Plains will provide plenty of high clouds throughout the
afternoon. While some partial sunshine is likely later in the
day...the increased cloud cover will result in slightly cooler
afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
As high pressure shifts overhead on Wednesday...synoptic
subsidence/drying will allow the persistent cloud cover to finally
dissipate. Due to increased sunshine...high temps will reach the
middle to upper 70s. Once the high slides further east...and a
gusty S/SW wind develops ahead of an approaching cold front...high
temperatures will climb even higher into the upper 70s and lower 80s
by Thursday. 00z Oct 6 models are now in very good agreement
concerning timing of frontal passage...with the boundary passing
through central Illinois Thursday night. With strongest forcing and
deepest moisture remaining west of the area until late in the
day...have removed PoPs Thursday morning and only featured chance
PoPs west of the I-57 corridor during the afternoon. The best
chance for rain still appears to be on target Thursday night...when
high chance to likely PoPs are warranted. Gulf moisture return
ahead of the front will be sufficient to allow surface dewpoints to
climb into the upper 50s/lower 60s. This will result in SBCAPE
values of around 1000J/Kg during the late afternoon and evening.
Thanks to an approaching upper wave...0-6km bulk shear will increase
to around 30kt as well. Due to the moderate instability/shear in
place...have decided to mention a chance for thunderstorms with
FROPA Thursday afternoon and night.
All models now show the front quickly pushing through the area and
moving into the Ohio River Valley by Friday morning. As a
result...will only hold on to a low chance PoP across the far SE
Friday morning...with dry conditions expected everywhere by
afternoon. Airmass behind boundary will be quite a bit
cooler...with high temperatures remaining in the 60s for both
Friday and Saturday.
After that...upper heights will once again be on the increase across
the Midwest early next week. As the next cold front begins to
approach from the northwest...a strong thermal axis with 850mb temps
of 18-22C will develop across the area. This will help push
afternoon high temperatures back into the lower 80s by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Widespread IFR stratus/fog across the central Illinois terminals
to start the day, very similar to yesterday. However, conditions
are expected to improve a little more quickly than yesterday in
most locations, with VFR conditions expected areawide by early
afternoon. Some low cloud/fog redevelopment is possible by late
tonight, but feel this threat should be mitigated to some degree
by a persistent mid cloud deck. Light northernly winds will trend
variable tonight as a ridge axis passes through the area.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
656 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Main short-term forecast challenge will once again be cloud cover
and its impact on high temperatures today. Much like last
night...low clouds are currently developing over northern Illinois.
With surface high pressure still in place from the western Great
Lakes to the Central Plains...northeasterly low-level flow will
allow the clouds to spread S/SW into the KILX CWA over the next few
hours. 08z/3am obs show IFR ceilings along/northeast of a Lacon
to Paris line...with mid/high clouds blanketing the remainder of
the area. HRRR suggests these lower clouds will spread as far
south as the I-70 corridor shortly after dawn...resulting in
overcast conditions across the board to start the day. In
addition...quite a bit of fog is developing under the low cloud
deck. While models do not indicate the fog will become
dense...visibilities will be restricted to less than 1 mile at
times...especially along/northeast of a Lacon...to Decatur...to
Paris line. Will carry areas of fog across this portion of the
CWA through 14-15z...with patchy fog elsewhere. As was the case
yesterday...the fog and lower clouds will dissipate toward
midday...however a short-wave trough tracking eastward out of the
Plains will provide plenty of high clouds throughout the
afternoon. While some partial sunshine is likely later in the
day...the increased cloud cover will result in slightly cooler
afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
As high pressure shifts overhead on Wednesday...synoptic
subsidence/drying will allow the persistent cloud cover to finally
dissipate. Due to increased sunshine...high temps will reach the
middle to upper 70s. Once the high slides further east...and a
gusty S/SW wind develops ahead of an approaching cold front...high
temperatures will climb even higher into the upper 70s and lower 80s
by Thursday. 00z Oct 6 models are now in very good agreement
concerning timing of frontal passage...with the boundary passing
through central Illinois Thursday night. With strongest forcing and
deepest moisture remaining west of the area until late in the
day...have removed PoPs Thursday morning and only featured chance
PoPs west of the I-57 corridor during the afternoon. The best
chance for rain still appears to be on target Thursday night...when
high chance to likely PoPs are warranted. Gulf moisture return
ahead of the front will be sufficient to allow surface dewpoints to
climb into the upper 50s/lower 60s. This will result in SBCAPE
values of around 1000J/Kg during the late afternoon and evening.
Thanks to an approaching upper wave...0-6km bulk shear will increase
to around 30kt as well. Due to the moderate instability/shear in
place...have decided to mention a chance for thunderstorms with
FROPA Thursday afternoon and night.
All models now show the front quickly pushing through the area and
moving into the Ohio River Valley by Friday morning. As a
result...will only hold on to a low chance PoP across the far SE
Friday morning...with dry conditions expected everywhere by
afternoon. Airmass behind boundary will be quite a bit
cooler...with high temperatures remaining in the 60s for both
Friday and Saturday.
After that...upper heights will once again be on the increase across
the Midwest early next week. As the next cold front begins to
approach from the northwest...a strong thermal axis with 850mb temps
of 18-22C will develop across the area. This will help push
afternoon high temperatures back into the lower 80s by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Widespread IFR stratus/fog across the central Illinois terminals
to start the day, very similar to yesterday. However, conditions
are expected to improve a little more quickly than yesterday in
most locations, with VFR conditions expected areawide by early
afternoon. Some low cloud/fog redevelopment is possible by late
tonight, but feel this threat should be mitigated to some degree
by a persistent mid cloud deck. Light northernly winds will trend
variable tonight as a ridge axis passes through the area.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1019 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1002 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY RAISE SKY COVER REST OF THIS AM BASED ON
SATELLITE AND OB TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OR DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. AS
RESULT... LEFT MAX TEMPS ALONE FOR NOW. ALSO... MAY BE A FEW
SPRINKLES WITH WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR WEST AND NORTHWEST OF DES
MOINES METRO... BUT TOO ISOLATED FOR MENTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. VERY
LITTLE FLOW IN THIS AIR MASS AND MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECK LOOKS TO BE
VERY PERSISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RH BETWEEN 800-600MB
REMAINS GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT UNTIL AROUND 18-20Z THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOUD DECK BEGINS TO THIN OUT A LITTLE OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE WEST. VERY WEAK
AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE LATE THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE CLOUD DECK. WENT AT OR A SLIGHT
NUDGE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE (ECS/MET/MAV) AS THEY WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT PRECIP
CHANCES TODAY...BUT TO NOTE THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE WEST. ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES TODAY...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN MENTIONING WITH THE HIGH BASED CLOUD DECK.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE OCT
6 2015
FEW CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED. TIMING OF FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT RAIN
CHANCES THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD. THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO LEAD
THE PACK WITH A FASTER FRONTAL TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA COMPARED
TO THE EURO. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER LINGERING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE LACK OF
CONCERTED FORCING SHOULD RANGE IN THE TENTHS TO HALF INCH RANGE AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THOUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE NORTH. NORTH NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL ADD TO THE COOLER FALL READINGS FOR THE DAY. GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK H500 HEIGHT RISES AND A
TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. A DRY COOL FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE
MIDWEST/PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
ON MONDAY. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY WITH
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...06/12Z ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
LIFR TO MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OTM AND ALO
THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT
STILL MAY SEE SOME ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS TO MITIGATE ANY WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN MENTIONING ATTM.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
621 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.
VERY LITTLE FLOW IN THIS AIR MASS AND MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECK LOOKS
TO BE VERY PERSISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RH BETWEEN 800-
600MB REMAINS GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT UNTIL AROUND 18-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUD DECK BEGINS TO THIN OUT A LITTLE OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT IN THE
WEST. VERY WEAK AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE LATE THIS
MORNING WHICH SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE CLOUD DECK. WENT
AT OR A SLIGHT NUDGE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE (ECS/MET/MAV) AS THEY WERE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY. NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT
PRECIP CHANCES TODAY...BUT TO NOTE THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WEST. ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES
TODAY...LOW CONFIDENCE IN MENTIONING WITH THE HIGH BASED CLOUD
DECK.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FEW CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED. TIMING OF FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT RAIN
CHANCES THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD. THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO LEAD
THE PACK WITH A FASTER FRONTAL TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA COMPARED
TO THE EURO. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER LINGERING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE LACK OF
CONCERTED FORCING SHOULD RANGE IN THE TENTHS TO HALF INCH RANGE AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THOUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE MAINLY DRY...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 60S WITH UPPER 50S POSSIBLE NORTH. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL ADD TO THE COOLER FALL READINGS FOR THE DAY. GRADUALLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK H500 HEIGHT RISES AND A TRANSITION
TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
A DRY COOL FRONT IS SLATED TO CROSS THE MIDWEST/PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING
WITH A RETURN TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...06/12Z
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
LIFR TO MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OTM AND ALO
THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT STILL MAY SEE SOME ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS TO MITIGATE
ANY WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
MENTIONING ATTM.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1003 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
UPDATE TO FORECAST ISSUED TO REMOVE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
FROM CURRENT FOG ADVISORY. LATEST OBS/SATELLITE SHOW EASTERN MOST
COUNTIES HAVE SHOWN INCREASED VISIBILITY CONDITIONS SO HAVE
DROPPED FROM ADVISORY. FROM NWS GOODLAND WEST...ADVISORY EXTENDED
THRU MIDDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING AND LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY HAVE
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOWS.
AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET DID THE BEST ALTHOUGH ALL
WERE CLOSE. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF. THE RAP AND NAM WERE DOING THE
BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND
ECMWF WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE THE STRATUS AND FOG.
EVENING HAS ALREADY PUT OUT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AS WAS THE
CASE LAST NIGHT...AFTER AGREEMENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT SHOWING UP ON HOW FAR EAST TO TAKE THE FOG AND
HOW EXTENSIVE IT WILL BE. WILL KEEP THE GOING FORECAST AND
ADVISORY GOING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE SHIFT. THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW CLEARING TREND AND THE WIND
FIELD WILL KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR
THE MAXES.
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOT OF DRY AIR UPSTREAM.
ALSO HEIGHTS KEEP BUILDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
STILL KEEP THE MAIN UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS GET THROWN UP AT US. SINCE
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE USED THE SLOWEST MODELS TO BASE
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON WHICH TENDED TO BE THE GFS AND ECMWF.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...MODELS DELAY THE MAIN LIFT UNTIL THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT AFFECTS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA
AROUND 06Z. THEY THEN EITHER KEEP IT OVER THE AREA...MOVE IT A
LITTLE SOUTHEAST OR MOVE IT BACK TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEP THE
DAYTIME DRY AND SLOWLY INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SEEMS TO BE SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE LIFT
AND WHERE THEY PUT THE QPF. COMBINATION OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND JET LIFT COMBINE WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF AND NOT FURTHER SOUTH PER THE QPF.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WHERE THE JET LIFT. MODELS MOVE MOST OF THE
JET LIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT BUT STILL A LOT
OF DISAGREEMENT. PER THE TRANSITION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET
LIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING BY LATE EVENING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS GENERAL IDEA IN MIND AND ONLY MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING PERIOD PER REASONING ABOVE.
THERE SHOULD BE CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIPITATION WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. MODELS WARM UP TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT BUT CLOUD COVER NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT IN
HOW THEY HANDLE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY THE REGION BECOMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW AND WOULD INDICATE A FAVORABLE
RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT THE DEGREE OF FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAINFALL SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE. NO
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT SO JUST HAVE A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS.
ABOVE SYSTEM PUSHES A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT IS THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. MODELS SEEM A BIT
WARM CONSIDERING THE TIMING SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE OR KEPT IT CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE US WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO MEXICO. FRIDAY IS
STILL LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO A
COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE CWA THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND THE BEGINNING PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS KEEP PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CWA. MONDAY IS LOOKING TO HAVE A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FOR KGLD...VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 16Z WHEN
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO IFR. AROUND 18Z CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR WILL OCCUR WITH VFR OCCURRING AROUND 20Z. AFTER THAT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 06Z
SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR. SINCE COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY AND NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE LAST 6 HOURS...CHOSE TO NOT
MENTION ANYTHING IN THE TAF.
FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AS WITH KGLD...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z BUT NO
MENTION WILL BE MADE PER THE REASONING ABOVE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TODAY FOR KSZ001-
013-027-041.
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR NEZ079.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
537 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING AND LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY HAVE
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOWS.
AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET DID THE BEST ALTHOUGH ALL
WERE CLOSE. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF. THE RAP AND NAM WERE DOING THE
BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND
ECMWF WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE THE STRATUS AND FOG.
EVENING HAS ALREADY PUT OUT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AS WAS THE
CASE LAST NIGHT...AFTER AGREEMENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT SHOWING UP ON HOW FAR EAST TO TAKE THE FOG AND
HOW EXTENSIVE IT WILL BE. WILL KEEP THE GOING FORECAST AND
ADVISORY GOING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE SHIFT. THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW CLEARING TREND AND THE WIND
FIELD WILL KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR
THE MAXES.
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOT OF DRY AIR UPSTREAM.
ALSO HEIGHTS KEEP BUILDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
STILL KEEP THE MAIN UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS GET THROWN UP AT US. SINCE
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE USED THE SLOWEST MODELS TO BASE
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON WHICH TENDED TO BE THE GFS AND ECMWF.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...MODELS DELAY THE MAIN LIFT UNTIL THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT AFFECTS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA
AROUND 06Z. THEY THEN EITHER KEEP IT OVER THE AREA...MOVE IT A
LITTLE SOUTHEAST OR MOVE IT BACK TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEP THE
DAYTIME DRY AND SLOWLY INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SEEMS TO BE SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE LIFT
AND WHERE THEY PUT THE QPF. COMBINATION OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND JET LIFT COMBINE WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF AND NOT FURTHER SOUTH PER THE QPF.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WHERE THE JET LIFT. MODELS MOVE MOST OF THE
JET LIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT BUT STILL A LOT
OF DISAGREEMENT. PER THE TRANSITION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET
LIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING BY LATE EVENING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS GENERAL IDEA IN MIND AND ONLY MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING PERIOD PER REASONING ABOVE.
THERE SHOULD BE CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIPITATION WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. MODELS WARM UP TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT BUT CLOUD COVER NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT IN
HOW THEY HANDLE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY THE REGION BECOMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW AND WOULD INDICATE A FAVORABLE
RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT THE DEGREE OF FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAINFALL SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE. NO
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT SO JUST HAVE A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS.
ABOVE SYSTEM PUSHES A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT IS THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. MODELS SEEM A BIT
WARM CONSIDERING THE TIMING SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE OR KEPT IT CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE US WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO MEXICO. FRIDAY IS
STILL LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO A
COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE CWA THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND THE BEGINNING PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS KEEP PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CWA. MONDAY IS LOOKING TO HAVE A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FOR KGLD...VLIFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 16Z WHEN
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO IFR. AROUND 18Z CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR WILL OCCUR WITH VFR OCCURRING AROUND 20Z. AFTER THAT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 06Z
SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL OCCUR. SINCE COVERAGE WILL BE
SPOTTY AND NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE LAST 6 HOURS...CHOSE TO NOT
MENTION ANYTHING IN THE TAF.
FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
AS WITH KGLD...SPOTTY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z BUT NO
MENTION WILL BE MADE PER THE REASONING ABOVE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ079-080.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
727 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NE THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO
TOWARD JAMES BAY. AT THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTH INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK
RIDGE WAS NOTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IR SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATED LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI...BUT
WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE COUNTY.
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PASS ACROSS THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE ONLY WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AS BEST
DYNAMICS/LIFT REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE UPPER LAKES ALONG PATH OF
SHORTWAVE AS NOTED BY 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV FIELDS.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAK 850-800 MB FGEN FORCING AND WEAK
INSTABILITY (CAPES LESS THAN 100 J/KG) ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE ERN
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. EVEN WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE...MIXING
THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS 6-7C SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL
KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER THERE (LOWER 60S).
TONIGHT...AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
EVENING...EXPECT A CLEARING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY
QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR IN NW FLOW AS 8H TEMPS DROP NEAR 0C OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z WED. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LOW CLOUDS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE EAST SO WL CONTINUE TO KEEP A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER THERE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
30S INTERIOR WEST WHERE PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TO LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES OUR FCST...BEHIND
THE EXITING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE
SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AROUND 21Z WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
QUICKLY SHIFTING E ACROSS FAR E ONTARIO AND LAKE HURON BY 06Z.
LOOK FOR THE NEARING RAIN MAKER /SFC LOW/ OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF THE N AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE 0.4-0.8IN OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...AND EXIT E IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW ACROSS UPPER MI IS NOT EXACT...BUT THE CONSENSUS FOLLOWED
THE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST PRECIP ABOUT 20MI FARTHER
S THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST. OTHERWISE...FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE. TO SHOW THE UNCERTAINTY...THE SFC LOW POSITION AT 00Z FRIDAY
OFF THE CANADIAN IS OVER DRUMMOND ISLAND...OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR OFF THE NAM...OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI FROM THE
SREF...AND ACROSS THE N HALF OF LAKE MI ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS
RAIN WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AS AT NWS MQT WE ARE AT A 6.96IN DEFICIT
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR...AND A 2.8 INCH DEFICIT SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
ANOTHER WARM UP SATURDAY-MONDAY...RETURNING TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S
FOR START OF THE NEXT WEEK. COULD HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. CAN/T RULE OUT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
ECMWF SHOW THE NEXT LOW CROSSING FROM MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC.
THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE LOW...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER TROUGH.
WILL SEE HOW THE FCST CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE EXTENDED SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT MORE CONSISTENT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
LOW TRACKING ACROSS N ONTARIO MONDAY. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP FOR US...AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE STAYS ACROSS CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. A LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH WINDS
PEAKING AROUND 25KTS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN FROM THE SW LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
926 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WELL
OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 925 AM TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR WATER
LOGGED EASTERN NC WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT COASTAL
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS. VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OFF THE SE COAST WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY. A SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES PIVOTING SSW AROUND
THE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE LOOKOUT THIS
MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. A FEW
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SOUTHERN OBX THIS BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. SREF/NARRE HRRR MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE PERSISTENT CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER
ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 22Z THEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGE FROM MID 50S INLAND TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE BEACHES. FULL
DECOUPLING MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE NORMALLY INLAND SPOTS TO REACH
NEAR 50 BY SUNRISE. CUD SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG LATE GIVEN WET
GROUND AND COOL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THROUGH LATE WEEK. SHOULD SEE MIN TEMPS MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND TO LOW/MID 60S COAST WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES/MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND GENERALLY USED BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
FROPA SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH BEST
DYNAMICS REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND HELD POPS TO LOW
CHANCE ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
OVER EASTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE
MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM TUESDAY...CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR OR LOW MVFR
EARLY THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SLOW
TO SCOUR OUT IN THE LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW THRU MIDDAY WITH VFR
POSSIBLY NOT RETURNING UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS THRU THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR AND CALM
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHALLOW FOG PATCHES MAY DEVELOP OVER WET GROUND
WITH COOL TEMPS, BUT SHUDNT BE WIDESPREAD GIVEN LOW DEW POINTS SO
NO TAF INCLUSION AS YET.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...EXPECT PRED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INVERSIONS
DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN
LIMITED, STILL CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF SUB-VFR VSBYS/CEILINGS
OCCURRING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS RTES EARLY SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS LOOK LIMITED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AROUND DEEP LOW
OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS AS WINDS
SLOWLY DECREASE WITH THE LOW MOVING SLOWLY DRIFTING FARTHER OUT
TO SEA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 10-14
FT MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...N/NE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY
AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
NWPS HAS SEAS AROUND 6-9 FT NORTH AND 3-7 FT SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHICH GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW 6 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO SW AROUND 10-15 KTS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT. USED A COMPROMISE OF GFS/ECMWF FOR
FRONTAL TIMING SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AROUND 5-15 KTS AFTER FROPA. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT A
BIT STRONGER WITH THE POST FRONTAL SURGE SO WILL HAVE MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWIFT
CREEK AT STREETS FERRY WITH LEVEL RIGHT NEAR MODERATE FLOODING.
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE TRENT RIVER AT POLLOCKSVILLE.
THE TRENT RIVER IS SLOWLY FALLING AND SHOULD DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT POLLOCKSVILLE LATER TODAY.
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NE CAPE FEAR RIVER AT
CHINQUAPIN. THE RIVER IS PEAKING IN MINOR FLOOD AT CHINQUAPIN
THIS MORNING BUT WILL LINGER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS.
THE OTHER MAINSTEM RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE TAR, NEUSE AND
ROANOKE RIVER BASINS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE THIS
WEEK BUT MAY LINGER NEAR OR AT ACTION STAGE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 530 AM TUESDAY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR OBX
DARE THRU THIS AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE FOR MODERATE FLOODING ON BOTH
OCEANSIDE AND SOUNDSIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER AREAS ADJACENT TO ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS, AND THE NEUSE, PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS. THE MOREHEAD CITY
AND BEAUFORT WATERFRONT MAY AGAIN SEE MINOR FLOODING DURING THIS
AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE. NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH WILL ALSO SEE HIGH
WATER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-104.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...BTC/SK
MARINE...JME/BTC/SK
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1041 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A COOL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
ALONG WITH A CLOUD BAND ALONG THAT LINE. AN AREA OF DENSE FOG
ALSO EXTENDED FROM HAZEN NORTHWEST TO WATFORD CITY AND TO NEAR THE
ND/MT BORDER. WILL UPDATE CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMPERATURES. WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE LONGER UNTIL NOON. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
A BIT WEST CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN ISSUE IS FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE FOG
WILL LIFT MOST AREAS BY 10 AM. WILL THEN TRANSLATE AN AREA OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IT
AS THE HEATING BURNS OFF THE LOW CLOUDS HOPEFULLY BY NOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE SPREAD AREAS OF FOG FURTHER TO THE WEST
AND NORTH AS VISIBILITIES IN IN BISMARCK AND WATFORD CITY HAVE
DROPPED TO AROUND A MILE. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. FOG SHOULD START DETERIORATING BY MID-
MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FOG THIS
MORNING.
CURRENTLY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE LOW CIGS PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
CLEAR OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. AS THE HRRR PREDICTED EARLIER...AREAS OF FOG
COMMON OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR
ADVERTISES THESE LOW VSBYS ERODING AROUND 15Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS MAY INDEED BE THE
CASE. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF THE FOG IN THE HWO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. CLOUDS CLEAR MID TO
LATE MORNING LEADING TO A PLEASANT/SUNNY FALL AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS 55-65 AND LIGHT WINDS.
INCREASING RETURN FLOW TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WARMER WEST IN THE 40S WHERE THE STRONGER RETURN FLOW
WILL BE...30S EAST. CLOUDS INCREASE WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING EAST-
SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WHILE LOW WORKS EASTERLY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD SHORT WAVE WORKS THROUGH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS APPROACH AND COOL FRONT
WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WORKS IN. WILL KEEP LOW MENTION
OF THUNDER GOING WITH MODEST INSTABILITY STILL NOTED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH
A CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER.
WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OVER
THE AREA.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE THE START OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING QUESTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MVFR
CIGS AT KMOT THROUGH 13-15Z. FOG AT KDIK-KBIS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
912 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN ISSUE IS FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE FOG
WILL LIFT MOST AREAS BY 10 AM. WILL THEN TRANSLATE AN AREA OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IT
AS THE HEATING BURNS OFF THE LOW CLOUDS HOPEFULLY BY NOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE SPREAD AREAS OF FOG FURTHER TO THE WEST
AND NORTH AS VISIBILITIES IN IN BISMARCK AND WATFORD CITY HAVE
DROPPED TO AROUND A MILE. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. FOG SHOULD START DETERIORATING BY MID-
MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FOG THIS
MORNING.
CURRENTLY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE LOW CIGS PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
CLEAR OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. AS THE HRRR PREDICTED EARLIER...AREAS OF FOG
COMMON OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR
ADVERTISES THESE LOW VSBYS ERODING AROUND 15Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS MAY INDEED BE THE
CASE. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF THE FOG IN THE HWO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. CLOUDS CLEAR MID TO
LATE MORNING LEADING TO A PLEASANT/SUNNY FALL AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS 55-65 AND LIGHT WINDS.
INCREASING RETURN FLOW TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WARMER WEST IN THE 40S WHERE THE STRONGER RETURN FLOW
WILL BE...30S EAST. CLOUDS INCREASE WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING EAST-
SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WHILE LOW WORKS EASTERLY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD SHORT WAVE WORKS THROUGH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS APPROACH AND COOL FRONT
WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WORKS IN. WILL KEEP LOW MENTION
OF THUNDER GOING WITH MODEST INSTABILITY STILL NOTED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH
A CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER.
WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OVER
THE AREA.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE THE START OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING QUESTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MVFR
CIGS AT KMOT THROUGH 13-15Z. FOG AT KDIK-KBIS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
623 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE SPREAD AREAS OF FOG FURTHER TO THE WEST
AND NORTH AS VISIBILITIES IN IN BISMARCK AND WATFORD CITY HAVE
DROPPED TO AROUND A MILE. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. FOG SHOULD START DETERIORATING BY MID-
MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FOG THIS
MORNING.
CURRENTLY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE LOW CIGS PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
CLEAR OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. AS THE HRRR PREDICTED EARLIER...AREAS OF FOG
COMMON OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR
ADVERTISES THESE LOW VSBYS ERODING AROUND 15Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS MAY INDEED BE THE
CASE. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF THE FOG IN THE HWO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. CLOUDS CLEAR MID TO
LATE MORNING LEADING TO A PLEASANT/SUNNY FALL AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS 55-65 AND LIGHT WINDS.
INCREASING RETURN FLOW TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WARMER WEST IN THE 40S WHERE THE STRONGER RETURN FLOW
WILL BE...30S EAST. CLOUDS INCREASE WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING EAST-
SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WHILE LOW WORKS EASTERLY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD SHORT WAVE WORKS THROUGH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS APPROACH AND COOL FRONT
WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WORKS IN. WILL KEEP LOW MENTION
OF THUNDER GOING WITH MODEST INSTABILITY STILL NOTED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH
A CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER.
WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OVER
THE AREA.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE THE START OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING QUESTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING IS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. MVFR
CIGS AT KMOT THROUGH 13-15Z. FOG AT KDIK-KBIS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
616 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE MAIN...IF NOT THE ONLY...FORECAST ISSUES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
ARE CLOUDS AND THE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY WAVE WILL BARELY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
THE W/SW LATE TONIGHT AS MODELS ARE SLOWER ON THAT APPROACH...AND
SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY NOT AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT MOISTURE LAYER AND CLOUD COVER IS CENTERED MOSTLY IN THE 800-
750MB RANGE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER CLOUDS SOUTHEAST. THE FINER TUNE
DETAIL SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM12 AND RAP KEEP THIS MOIST LAYER JUST
THICK ENOUGH TO RESIST ANY UNEXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WHICH COULD CAUSE
THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP QUICKLY...SO THEY SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL BEING
SCOURED/SHEARED OUT DURING THE DAY BY DRYING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH. THIS DRYING SURGE APPEARS TO WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY AS IT PUSHED
SOUTHEAST SO HAVE GONE SLOWER FAR SOUTHEAST ON THE DECREASE...AS
WELL AS FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THE DRY PUSH WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING
BLOW. THE DECREASE SHOULD PROCEED SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. BY THE WAY...THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE SEEN WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A DRYING SURGE FROM THE SOUTH KEEP FILLING IN AND PRETTY
MUCH ADDING AUTHORITY TO HOW THESE TWO MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM QUITE AS MUCH AS WE HAVE BEEN GOING FOR
DUE TO THE DELAYED CLEARING WITH HIGHS TODAY CLOSE TO 70...AT MOST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. CERTAINLY PLEASANT ENOUGH WITH THE FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS.
IN CONTRAST TO THE CLOUDIER PICTURE TODAY...TONIGHT SHOULD SEE FEWER
CLOUDS THAN WHAT WE WERE THINKING BEFORE WITH THE SLOWER APPROACH OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE
NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO 50 PLUS
ALONG THE MIGHTY MISSOURI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL TRY TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LIFT IS NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND FOCUS IS POINTED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. NEVERTHELESS...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERHAPS EVEN A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUILD SOUTHWEST ALONG AND ADVANCING FRONT LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF
HOLDS SECONDARY ELEVATED MOISTURE LAYER ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON
THURSDAY AND FOCUSES AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO EARLY EVENING. NEITHER NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA
OF ASCENT...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
AFTER A COOLER FRIDAY...THE HEAT BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S
SATURDAY...AND 80S SEEM LIKELY ON SUNDAY. THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK
REMAINS A FAVORABLE ONE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
VFR THROUGH 07/12Z. CEILINGS 5-8K FEET WILL DECREASE FROM THE NW
THROUGH 07/00Z. PATCHY VSBYS 3-5SM IN SHALLOW RADIATION FOG WAS
CONSIDERED 07/08Z-12Z WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BUT
FEEL AIR IS TO DRY TO PRESENT ENOUGH THREAT TO INCLUDE IN
FORECASTS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1148 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
UPDATED FOR MORE CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
CURRENTLY...
UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED VICINITY LAS VEGAS. QUITE A FEW SHOWERS/TSRA
WERE NOTED OVER UTAH AND ACROSS W CO. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ALONG THE CONTDVD AT 3 AM...WITH A FEW POSSIBLY IN THE N
SANGRES. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WAS NOTED OVER THE REGION...WITH THE
LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE RATON MESA IN NM...AND UP IN NORTHEAST CO.
TODAY...
EXPECT TO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE FAR E PLAINS AND N EL PASO COUNTY.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/TSRA OVER THE MTNS
TODAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT ALOFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO GET ADVECTED NWD AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST. OVERALL BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BY LATER IN THE DAY...PRECIP WILL DEVELOP FARTHER
EAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AS DIFFLUENT FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED LIFT MOVES OVER THIS REGION.
SOME SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH MARGINAL CAPE. WE MAY SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...AND LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME RED CORES MOVING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK
REGION LATER TODAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED SOME AREAS NW OF PIKES PEAK
RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN YDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM AGAIN TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F
ON THE PLAINS...AND 60S AND 70S VALLEYS.
TONIGHT...
EXPECT MORE MID LVL CLOUDS ON THE PLAINS. OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH BEST CHANCES REMAINING
OVER THE SW MTNS AND PIKES PEAK REGION. UPPER LOW WILL START TO MOVE
BACK TOWARDS THE S-SW LATER TONIGHT. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO SOUTHERN COLORADO...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH LOW ENSEMBLE SPREADS. EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER TO
TURN DRY AND WARM BY THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WHILE WEAK ENERGY
MOVES ACROSS COLORADO IN INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE MOST ACTIVE DAY APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
ENERGY WRAPPING NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING...INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...EXPANDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS FAVORING
THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE AND RATON MESA REGIONS AND
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERN
COLORADO BECOMING MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO WORK EASTWARD ON FRIDAY.
EXPECT EVEN LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH GENERALLY 70S ACROSS
THE REGION.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH MORE ZONAL WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...A GOOD 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
SCATTERED TO NUMERSOUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND
DIFLUENCE ALOFT AS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT PUB AND ALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
THREAT OF STORMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. COS COULD SEE
SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS IF STORMS AND
OUTFLOWS MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT COS...IF SKIES CLEAR EARLIER
THAN EXPECTED.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
258 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Low cloud deck has faded over most of the forecast area early this
afternoon, but some stratocumulus lingers especially in west central
Illinois. Main concern is that this will return once again tonight.
The atmosphere has not changed much, as the high pressure axis to
our west only slowly edges eastward. The RAP model, which locked
into the idea of this morning`s low clouds and fog about 24 hours in
advance, shows another expanse of stratus/fog advecting in from the
northeast after about 2 am. Wild card will be with some altocumulus
clouds currently over Wisconsin/Minnesota dropping southeast, which
could slow the redevelopment of the low clouds. Right now, will
focus more on the areas east of I-55 and north of I-70 as more
likely to see some fog late night, although some fog along the
Wabash River in southeast Illinois is a possibility as well.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Areas of fog from I-55 east and locally dense in spots to lift
during mid morning similar to past 2 mornings. Low clouds to also
break up by late morning with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny
by Wed afternoon with weak surface high pressure ridge of 1018 mb
near IL Wed and Wed night. Warm highs Wed in the upper 70s to near
80F. Lows Wed night in the mid to upper 50s. Could be some patchy
fog in southeast IL later Wed night where surface winds lighter.
Another warm day expected Thu with breezy ssw winds by midday Thu
giving highs in the lower 80s. MAV guidance even going mid 80s in
western CWA from Decatur west but did not go this warm since there
will be increasing cloud cover ahead of approaching cold front along
with chances of showers and thunderstorms NW half of CWA Thu
afternoon, with best chances over the IL river valley. SPC has
marginal risk (5%) of severe storms for hail late Thu afternoon and
early Thu evening over IL river valley. MLCapes peak near 1000 j/kg
late Thu afternoon nw IL and 0-6 km Bulk shear from 35-45 kts. 12Z
models similar in sweeping cold front se acorss central IL during
Thu night with likely chances of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Cold front exits southeast IL early Fri morning with lingering
chances of showers on Friday especially in the morning.
Dry conditions return to central and southeast IL Friday night
through next Tuesday as high pressure from the Pacific NW settles
into IL Saturday and then into the Southeast U.S. early next week.
Temps cool back to near or a bit below normal Friday/Saturday and
then warm back above normal early next week with highs in the mid
70s to lower 80s Sun-Tue. WNW upper level flow takes shape during
1st half of next week which would favor fair and mild conditions,
and favorable for fall harvest. CPC`s day 6-10 day outlook Oct 12-16
has IL in above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Ceilings quickly lifting into VFR range at midday, but will
continue to see another hour or two of IFR/MVFR at KCMI/KBMI.
Main concern will be whether these conditions return once again
tonight, as high pressure axis starts to edge across the
Mississippi River. Latest RAP guidance -- which ended up doing a
fairly decent job with this morning`s IFR conditions nearly 24
hours in advance -- shows some more low clouds/fog edging in from
the northeast after 06Z, primarily affecting KBMI/KCMI/KDEC. Areas
further west will likely see more in the way of clouds over 10,000
feet, which would lessen the probability of very low conditions
at KPIA/KSPI. However, given the inversion that has kept the air
mass somewhat stagnant, will go with MVFR visibilities everywhere
after 06Z, and include a TEMPO period of IFR conditions in east
central Illinois.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1232 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Most of the fog has lifted, but still seeing some pockets of 1/2
to 1 mile visibility persisting from Taylorville east to the
Indiana border. This will continue to improve over the next hour
or two. Still quite a bit of low level moisture trapped below 800
mb, with the 925 mb RH plot off the RAP showing cloudiness
persisting near Champaign/Danville most of the day, so high
temperatures in that area have been lowered a few degrees. The
remainder of the forecast area should see some breaks developing,
especially during the afternoon, which should help temperatures
respond quickly similar to yesterday. Thus, have only made minor
temperature changes elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Main short-term forecast challenge will once again be cloud cover
and its impact on high temperatures today. Much like last
night...low clouds are currently developing over northern Illinois.
With surface high pressure still in place from the western Great
Lakes to the Central Plains...northeasterly low-level flow will
allow the clouds to spread S/SW into the KILX CWA over the next few
hours. 08z/3am obs show IFR ceilings along/northeast of a Lacon
to Paris line...with mid/high clouds blanketing the remainder of
the area. HRRR suggests these lower clouds will spread as far
south as the I-70 corridor shortly after dawn...resulting in
overcast conditions across the board to start the day. In
addition...quite a bit of fog is developing under the low cloud
deck. While models do not indicate the fog will become
dense...visibilities will be restricted to less than 1 mile at
times...especially along/northeast of a Lacon...to Decatur...to
Paris line. Will carry areas of fog across this portion of the
CWA through 14-15z...with patchy fog elsewhere. As was the case
yesterday...the fog and lower clouds will dissipate toward
midday...however a short-wave trough tracking eastward out of the
Plains will provide plenty of high clouds throughout the
afternoon. While some partial sunshine is likely later in the
day...the increased cloud cover will result in slightly cooler
afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
As high pressure shifts overhead on Wednesday...synoptic
subsidence/drying will allow the persistent cloud cover to finally
dissipate. Due to increased sunshine...high temps will reach the
middle to upper 70s. Once the high slides further east...and a
gusty S/SW wind develops ahead of an approaching cold front...high
temperatures will climb even higher into the upper 70s and lower 80s
by Thursday. 00z Oct 6 models are now in very good agreement
concerning timing of frontal passage...with the boundary passing
through central Illinois Thursday night. With strongest forcing and
deepest moisture remaining west of the area until late in the
day...have removed PoPs Thursday morning and only featured chance
PoPs west of the I-57 corridor during the afternoon. The best
chance for rain still appears to be on target Thursday night...when
high chance to likely PoPs are warranted. Gulf moisture return
ahead of the front will be sufficient to allow surface dewpoints to
climb into the upper 50s/lower 60s. This will result in SBCAPE
values of around 1000J/Kg during the late afternoon and evening.
Thanks to an approaching upper wave...0-6km bulk shear will increase
to around 30kt as well. Due to the moderate instability/shear in
place...have decided to mention a chance for thunderstorms with
FROPA Thursday afternoon and night.
All models now show the front quickly pushing through the area and
moving into the Ohio River Valley by Friday morning. As a
result...will only hold on to a low chance PoP across the far SE
Friday morning...with dry conditions expected everywhere by
afternoon. Airmass behind boundary will be quite a bit
cooler...with high temperatures remaining in the 60s for both
Friday and Saturday.
After that...upper heights will once again be on the increase across
the Midwest early next week. As the next cold front begins to
approach from the northwest...a strong thermal axis with 850mb temps
of 18-22C will develop across the area. This will help push
afternoon high temperatures back into the lower 80s by Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
Ceilings quickly lifting into VFR range at midday, but will
continue to see another hour or two of IFR/MVFR at KCMI/KBMI.
Main concern will be whether these conditions return once again
tonight, as high pressure axis starts to edge across the
Mississippi River. Latest RAP guidance -- which ended up doing a
fairly decent job with this morning`s IFR conditions nearly 24
hours in advance -- shows some more low clouds/fog edging in from
the northeast after 06Z, primarily affecting KBMI/KCMI/KDEC. Areas
further west will likely see more in the way of clouds over 10,000
feet, which would lessen the probability of very low conditions
at KPIA/KSPI. However, given the inversion that has kept the air
mass somewhat stagnant, will go with MVFR visibilities everywhere
after 06Z, and include a TEMPO period of IFR conditions in east
central Illinois.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1125 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
UPDATE ISSUED TO CANCEL REMAINING AREAS IN DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE LIFTED TO ABOVE CRITERIA LEVELS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING AND LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY HAVE
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOWS.
AT JET LEVEL...THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET DID THE BEST ALTHOUGH ALL
WERE CLOSE. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF. THE RAP AND NAM WERE DOING THE
BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND
ECMWF WERE DOING BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE THE STRATUS AND FOG.
EVENING HAS ALREADY PUT OUT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. AS WAS THE
CASE LAST NIGHT...AFTER AGREEMENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT SHOWING UP ON HOW FAR EAST TO TAKE THE FOG AND
HOW EXTENSIVE IT WILL BE. WILL KEEP THE GOING FORECAST AND
ADVISORY GOING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE SHIFT. THE COMBINATION OF A SLOW CLEARING TREND AND THE WIND
FIELD WILL KEEP THE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR
THE MAXES.
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOT OF DRY AIR UPSTREAM.
ALSO HEIGHTS KEEP BUILDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE
STILL KEEP THE MAIN UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT
LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS GET THROWN UP AT US. SINCE
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE USED THE SLOWEST MODELS TO BASE
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ON WHICH TENDED TO BE THE GFS AND ECMWF.
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...MODELS DELAY THE MAIN LIFT UNTIL THE
NIGHTTIME PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT AFFECTS THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA
AROUND 06Z. THEY THEN EITHER KEEP IT OVER THE AREA...MOVE IT A
LITTLE SOUTHEAST OR MOVE IT BACK TO THE WEST. SO WILL KEEP THE
DAYTIME DRY AND SLOWLY INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SEEMS TO BE SOME DISCONNECT BETWEEN WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE LIFT
AND WHERE THEY PUT THE QPF. COMBINATION OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND JET LIFT COMBINE WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF AND NOT FURTHER SOUTH PER THE QPF.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH WHERE THE JET LIFT. MODELS MOVE MOST OF THE
JET LIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE NIGHT BUT STILL A LOT
OF DISAGREEMENT. PER THE TRANSITION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET
LIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING BY LATE EVENING.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS GENERAL IDEA IN MIND AND ONLY MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING PERIOD PER REASONING ABOVE.
THERE SHOULD BE CLOUD COVER FROM PRECIPITATION WITH SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. MODELS WARM UP TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT BUT CLOUD COVER NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT IN
HOW THEY HANDLE THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY THE REGION BECOMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS NORTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE LOW AND WOULD INDICATE A FAVORABLE
RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BUT THE DEGREE OF FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAINFALL SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE. NO
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT SO JUST HAVE A MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS.
ABOVE SYSTEM PUSHES A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH. THE FRONT
LOOKS LIKE IT IS THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA BY 18Z. MODELS SEEM A BIT
WARM CONSIDERING THE TIMING SO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE OR KEPT IT CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE US WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA INTO
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO MEXICO. FRIDAY IS
STILL LOOKING TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO A
COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE CWA THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND THE BEGINNING PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS KEEP PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
CWA. MONDAY IS LOOKING TO HAVE A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FOR BOTH TAF SITES...VFR SKIES WITH SCT-BKN020-090. INCREASING
CLOUDS AFT 06Z WEDNESDAY. VCSH POSSIBLE BY 14Z WEDNESDAY. 6SM BR
FOR KGLD BY 07Z WED. WINDS VARIABLE BECOMING ESE 10KTS...VEERING
TO THE SW BY 14Z TOMORROW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
702 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW NRN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FROM WRN CANADA THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MAIN NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH NEAR JAMES BAY...ONLY VERY WEAK
UPSTREAM SHRTWVS WERE NOTED FROM SRN SASK INTO NW ONTARIO. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO NRN UPPER MI. OBS AND VIS LOOP
SHOWED SOME MID CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI. A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOWER
CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN INTO NW ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB
TEMPS NEAR 0C WAS GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE ESE.
TONIGHT...ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING
OVER THE ERN CWA SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY EVENING...EXPECT A CLEARING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AND 900 MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 1C...UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING CLOUDS N CNTRL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEST WITH DECOUPLED WINDS...TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FROST.
WED...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASING ACYC
FLOW...ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS OR LIGHT PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SUNSHINE/MIXING WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN IN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND
MAYBE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE WAVE LEADING TO THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS
THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF
THE LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG 925-700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THAT PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE INTO THE U.P. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED THE HEAVIEST RAIN A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY.
EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND...STILL THINK MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.5-0.75IN OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
THE LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY EVENING
AND BRING AN END TO THE LARGER SCALE PRECIPITATION. BUT WRAP AROUND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DRIER
AIR ARRIVES WITH AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP SINCE YESTERDAY...SO
WITH THOSE CLOUDS EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO
OCCUR DUE TO 825MB TEMPS AROUND -1C. THEREFORE...WILL LINGER SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED
NORTHERLY WIND AREAS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE...FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN DEPART ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AND CONTINUING INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LOW TRACK STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...EXPECT LITTLE/NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCMX AND KIWD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS INTO SAW AS WINDS VEER TO
NRLY WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COMING IN
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS VEERING FROM WSW TO NNW. WINDS TO 25 KNOTS
NEAR THE KEWEENAW THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
OVER CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
A LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH THE SE WINDS PEAKING AROUND
30KTS THU. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI
EVENING BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN FROM THE SW LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESENT
NWS MARQUETTE MI
408 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW NRN STREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW FROM WRN CANADA THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MAIN NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH NEAR JAMES BAY...ONLY VERY WEAK
UPSTREAM SHRTWVS WERE NOTED FROM SRN SASK INTO NW ONTARIO. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO NRN UPPER MI. OBS AND VIS LOOP
SHOWED SOME MID CLOUDS OVER UPPER MI. A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOWER
CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER NRN MN INTO NW ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB
TEMPS NEAR 0C WAS GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE ESE.
TONIGHT...ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING
OVER THE ERN CWA SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY EVENING...EXPECT A CLEARING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AS WINDS VEER TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AND 900 MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 1C...UPSLOPE FLOW AND LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING CLOUDS N CNTRL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE WEST WITH DECOUPLED WINDS...TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FROST.
WED...AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASING ACYC
FLOW...ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS OR LIGHT PCPN SHOULD END BY AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SUNSHINE/MIXING WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 50S NORTH TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN IN THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND
MAYBE FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE WAVE LEADING TO THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RAIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS
THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF
THE LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG 925-700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THAT PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE INTO THE U.P. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED THE HEAVIEST RAIN A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY.
EVEN WITH THAT SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND...STILL THINK MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL SEE BETWEEN 0.5-0.75IN OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN.
THE LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY EVENING
AND BRING AN END TO THE LARGER SCALE PRECIPITATION. BUT WRAP AROUND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND DRIER
AIR ARRIVES WITH AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP SINCE YESTERDAY...SO
WITH THOSE CLOUDS EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS TO
OCCUR DUE TO 825MB TEMPS AROUND -1C. THEREFORE...WILL LINGER SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED
NORTHERLY WIND AREAS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.
HIGH PRESSURE...FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN DEPART ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT HIGH WILL LEAD TO DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AND CONTINUING INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE LOW TRACK STAYING TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...EXPECT LITTLE/NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR
CIGS WITH MID CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS INTO SAW
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS WINDS VEER TO NRLY WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS VEERING FROM WSW TO NNW. WINDS TO 25 KNOTS
NEAR THE KEWEENAW THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS
OVER CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED.
A LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH THE SE WINDS PEAKING AROUND
30KTS THU. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI
EVENING BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN FROM THE SW LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
201 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. A
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NE THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO
TOWARD JAMES BAY. AT THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTH INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A WEAK
RIDGE WAS NOTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IR SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATED LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI...BUT
WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE COUNTY.
TODAY...THE COLD FRONT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PASS ACROSS THE
CWA. MODELS INDICATE ONLY WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AS BEST
DYNAMICS/LIFT REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE UPPER LAKES ALONG PATH OF
SHORTWAVE AS NOTED BY 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV FIELDS.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAK 850-800 MB FGEN FORCING AND WEAK
INSTABILITY (CAPES LESS THAN 100 J/KG) ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE ERN
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. EVEN WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE...MIXING
THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS 6-7C SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WEST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL
KEEP MAX TEMPS COOLER THERE (LOWER 60S).
TONIGHT...AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
EVENING...EXPECT A CLEARING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY
QUESTION WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE CLOUDS OVER ERN CWA DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR IN NW FLOW AS 8H TEMPS DROP NEAR 0C OVER ERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 12Z WED. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LOW CLOUDS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE EAST SO WL CONTINUE TO KEEP A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER THERE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM MID
30S INTERIOR WEST WHERE PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TO LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE DRY TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES OUR FCST...BEHIND
THE EXITING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE
SFC HIGH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AROUND 21Z WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
QUICKLY SHIFTING E ACROSS FAR E ONTARIO AND LAKE HURON BY 06Z.
LOOK FOR THE NEARING RAIN MAKER /SFC LOW/ OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF THE N AT 06Z THURSDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE W HALF
OF UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE 0.4-0.8IN OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...AND EXIT E IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW ACROSS UPPER MI IS NOT EXACT...BUT THE CONSENSUS FOLLOWED
THE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST PRECIP ABOUT 20MI FARTHER
S THAN THE PREVIOUS FCST. OTHERWISE...FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE. TO SHOW THE UNCERTAINTY...THE SFC LOW POSITION AT 00Z FRIDAY
OFF THE CANADIAN IS OVER DRUMMOND ISLAND...OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR OFF THE NAM...OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI FROM THE
SREF...AND ACROSS THE N HALF OF LAKE MI ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS
RAIN WILL BE MUCH NEEDED AS AT NWS MQT WE ARE AT A 6.96IN DEFICIT
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR...AND A 2.8 INCH DEFICIT SINCE
SEPTEMBER 1.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
ANOTHER WARM UP SATURDAY-MONDAY...RETURNING TO THE 60S TO LOW 70S
FOR START OF THE NEXT WEEK. COULD HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AT AROUND 10F ABOVE NORMAL. CAN/T RULE OUT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
ECMWF SHOW THE NEXT LOW CROSSING FROM MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC.
THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE LOW...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER TROUGH.
WILL SEE HOW THE FCST CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE EXTENDED SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT MORE CONSISTENT WITH AN ADDITIONAL
LOW TRACKING ACROSS N ONTARIO MONDAY. STILL NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP FOR US...AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE STAYS ACROSS CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR
CIGS WITH MID CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS INTO SAW
LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AS WINDS VEER TO NRLY WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. A LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH WINDS
PEAKING AROUND 25KTS. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON INTO
FRI EVENING BEFORE INCREASING UP TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN FROM THE SW LATE
FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
100 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WELL
OFFSHORE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 155 PM TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR WATER
LOGGED EASTERN NC. BASED ON TRENDS IN THE RADAR AND THE 12Z MODELS
HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY AS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COASTAL LOW WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH BUT SHOULD
BECOME NOTICEABLY LIGHTER BY EARLY EVENING AS THE GRADIENT FINALLYLESSENS
WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE
SREF/NARRE HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE PERSISTENT
CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER UNTIL EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY
ALONG COASTAL AREAS. THEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS 1 TO 3 DEGREES DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND NOW THINKING MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
LUCKY TO HIT 70 DEGREES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGE FROM MID 50S INLAND TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE BEACHES. FULL
DECOUPLING MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE NORMALLY INLAND SPOTS TO REACH
NEAR 50 BY SUNRISE. CUD SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG LATE GIVEN WET
GROUND AND COOL TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR THROUGH LATE WEEK. SHOULD SEE MIN TEMPS MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND TO LOW/MID 60S COAST WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES/MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND GENERALLY USED BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
FROPA SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH BEST
DYNAMICS REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND HELD POPS TO LOW
CHANCE ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
OVER EASTERN NC SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE
MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND TO 60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY THEN SSHOULDBEGIN TO DISSIPATE 21-23Z AS
DRIER AIR FINALLY SCOURS OUT THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMATION ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE AS WINDS DECOUPLE. EXPECTING PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...EXPECT PRED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INVERSIONS
DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN
LIMITED, STILL CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF SUB-VFR VSBYS/CEILINGS
OCCURRING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS RTES EARLY SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB VFR POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS LOOK LIMITED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1255 PM TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AROUND DEEP
LOW OFF THE SE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS AS WINDS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO DECREASE AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS OUT TO SEA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 10-14 FT TODAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY TONIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER
OFFSHORE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...N/NE WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY
AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
NWPS HAS SEAS AROUND 6-9 FT NORTH AND 3-7 FT SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHICH GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW 6 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO SW AROUND 10-15 KTS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT. USED A COMPROMISE OF GFS/ECMWF FOR
FRONTAL TIMING SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST TO
NORTH AROUND 5-15 KTS AFTER FROPA. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT A
BIT STRONGER WITH THE POST FRONTAL SURGE SO WILL HAVE MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWIFT
CREEK AT STREETS FERRY WITH LEVEL RIGHT NEAR MODERATE FLOODING.
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THE TRENT RIVER AT POLLOCKSVILLE.
THE TRENT RIVER IS SLOWLY FALLING AND SHOULD DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE AT POLLOCKSVILLE LATER TODAY.
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NE CAPE FEAR RIVER AT
CHINQUAPIN. THE RIVER IS PEAKING IN MINOR FLOOD AT CHINQUAPIN
THIS MORNING BUT WILL LINGER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS.
THE OTHER MAINSTEM RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE TAR, NEUSE AND
ROANOKE RIVER BASINS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE THIS
WEEK BUT MAY LINGER NEAR OR AT ACTION STAGE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 530 AM TUESDAY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR OBX
DARE THRU THIS AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE FOR MODERATE FLOODING ON BOTH
OCEANSIDE AND SOUNDSIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER AREAS ADJACENT TO ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS, AND THE NEUSE, PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS. THE MOREHEAD CITY
AND BEAUFORT WATERFRONT MAY AGAIN SEE MINOR FLOODING DURING THIS
AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE. NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH WILL ALSO SEE HIGH
WATER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-104.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...BTC/SK
MARINE...JME/BTC/SK
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS THE REGION OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
LEVEL COOL POOL LYING ALONG AND NORTH OF I94. THESE CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO ERODE AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. WILL UPDATE CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES AS THIS FEATURE MOVES SOUTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
A COOL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
ALONG WITH A CLOUD BAND ALONG THAT LINE. AN AREA OF DENSE FOG
ALSO EXTENDED FROM HAZEN NORTHWEST TO WATFORD CITY AND TO NEAR THE
ND/MT BORDER. WILL UPDATE CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMPERATURES. WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE LONGER UNTIL NOON. CLOUDS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES
A BIT WEST CENTRAL AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN ISSUE IS FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE FOG
WILL LIFT MOST AREAS BY 10 AM. WILL THEN TRANSLATE AN AREA OF
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IT
AS THE HEATING BURNS OFF THE LOW CLOUDS HOPEFULLY BY NOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE SPREAD AREAS OF FOG FURTHER TO THE WEST
AND NORTH AS VISIBILITIES IN IN BISMARCK AND WATFORD CITY HAVE
DROPPED TO AROUND A MILE. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. FOG SHOULD START DETERIORATING BY MID-
MORNING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE FOG THIS
MORNING.
CURRENTLY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS. FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE LOW CIGS PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST
AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
CLEAR OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. AS THE HRRR PREDICTED EARLIER...AREAS OF FOG
COMMON OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR
ADVERTISES THESE LOW VSBYS ERODING AROUND 15Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF THE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSE. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS MAY INDEED BE THE
CASE. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF THE FOG IN THE HWO.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY. CLOUDS CLEAR MID TO
LATE MORNING LEADING TO A PLEASANT/SUNNY FALL AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHS 55-65 AND LIGHT WINDS.
INCREASING RETURN FLOW TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WARMER WEST IN THE 40S WHERE THE STRONGER RETURN FLOW
WILL BE...30S EAST. CLOUDS INCREASE WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHING EAST-
SOUTHEAST OUT OF ALBERTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WHILE LOW WORKS EASTERLY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD SHORT WAVE WORKS THROUGH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES ITS APPROACH AND COOL FRONT
WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WORKS IN. WILL KEEP LOW MENTION
OF THUNDER GOING WITH MODEST INSTABILITY STILL NOTED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES
EAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH
A CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER.
WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS PUSHES OVER
THE AREA.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE THE START OF THE WORK WEEK ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA...THOUGH
THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING QUESTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY. HOWEVER A VERY SMALL SCALE FEATURE IS A BAND OF MVFR
CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I94 AT NOON TUESDAY. THIS ARE WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND ERODE WITH TIME. KDIK-KBIS-KJMS SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 THOUSAND BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH. SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS THE THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS AS THEY ARE ERODING.
FOR NOW JUST PUT KBIS IN THE MVFR BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1219 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE MAIN...IF NOT THE ONLY...FORECAST ISSUES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT
ARE CLOUDS AND THE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY WAVE WILL BARELY BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM
THE W/SW LATE TONIGHT AS MODELS ARE SLOWER ON THAT APPROACH...AND
SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY NOT AN ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENT MOISTURE LAYER AND CLOUD COVER IS CENTERED MOSTLY IN THE 800-
750MB RANGE EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER CLOUDS SOUTHEAST. THE FINER TUNE
DETAIL SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM12 AND RAP KEEP THIS MOIST LAYER JUST
THICK ENOUGH TO RESIST ANY UNEXPECTED SUBSIDENCE WHICH COULD CAUSE
THE CLOUDS TO BREAK UP QUICKLY...SO THEY SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL BEING
SCOURED/SHEARED OUT DURING THE DAY BY DRYING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH. THIS DRYING SURGE APPEARS TO WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY AS IT PUSHED
SOUTHEAST SO HAVE GONE SLOWER FAR SOUTHEAST ON THE DECREASE...AS
WELL AS FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THE DRY PUSH WILL BE MORE OF A GLANCING
BLOW. THE DECREASE SHOULD PROCEED SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. BY THE WAY...THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE SEEN WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A DRYING SURGE FROM THE SOUTH KEEP FILLING IN AND PRETTY
MUCH ADDING AUTHORITY TO HOW THESE TWO MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM QUITE AS MUCH AS WE HAVE BEEN GOING FOR
DUE TO THE DELAYED CLEARING WITH HIGHS TODAY CLOSE TO 70...AT MOST A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE. CERTAINLY PLEASANT ENOUGH WITH THE FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS.
IN CONTRAST TO THE CLOUDIER PICTURE TODAY...TONIGHT SHOULD SEE FEWER
CLOUDS THAN WHAT WE WERE THINKING BEFORE WITH THE SLOWER APPROACH OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE
NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD VARY FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO 50 PLUS
ALONG THE MIGHTY MISSOURI RIVER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL TRY TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LIFT IS NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND FOCUS IS POINTED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA. NEVERTHELESS...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS PERHAPS EVEN A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUILD SOUTHWEST ALONG AND ADVANCING FRONT LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF
HOLDS SECONDARY ELEVATED MOISTURE LAYER ACROSS THE AREA LATER ON
THURSDAY AND FOCUSES AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO EARLY EVENING. NEITHER NAM/GFS SHOW THIS AREA
OF ASCENT...AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
AFTER A COOLER FRIDAY...THE HEAT BUILDS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S
SATURDAY...AND 80S SEEM LIKELY ON SUNDAY. THE PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK
REMAINS A FAVORABLE ONE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
331 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE HAVASU CITY ARIZONA WAS
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST...AND EXPECTED TO TAKE MORE OF A SOUTHEAST
TURN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW TO NEAR DOUGLAS ARIZONA BY LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK IS SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST THAN
AVAILABLE TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET WAS
ARCING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE AND
AN AREA OF LIFT EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD NEAR THE STATE LINE
OVERNIGHT. MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS AT LEAST BRING PRECIPITATION CLOSE
TO THE STATE LINE IF NOT SLIGHTLY EAST OF IT OVERNIGHT WHILE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE HRRR SOLUTION HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS EASTWARD EXTENT
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AT LEAST. WE HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE OF THUNDER
ALONG WESTERN BORDER OVERNIGHT WHILE TRIMMING THE SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION A BIT FURTHER WEST.
A SECOND AREA OF LIFT IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY...THOUGH ALSO
A BIT FURTHER WEST OF PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS. DRY AIR TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WOULD BE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY PLUME TO ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BACKS...AND WOULD NOT BE A POSITIVE FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ESPECIALLY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
SO WE HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION MENTION FOR DAYTIME WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHILE DECREASING THE FORECAST CHANCES AS
FAR WEST AS THE INTERSTATE 27 CORRIDOR. FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS ADEQUATE FOR THUNDER CHANCES AS
WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD OVERNIGHT...SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE...AND THIS WARMER START
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO A WARM DAY ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES
WITH LESS OPAQUE CLOUD COVER. TRENDED HIGHS WEDNESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. RMCQUEEN
.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED AROUND THE PROGRESSION OF THE
CLOSED AND CUTOFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WHAT
IMPACTS IT WILL HAVE ON WEST TEXAS MID-LATE WEEK. AS IS THE CASE FOR
CUTOFF SYSTEMS...FORECASTING IT/S EVENTUAL PATH IS ALWAYS A
DIFFICULT AND OFTEN HUMBLING PROSPECT. THAT SAID...THE LATEST NWP
CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR EAST WITH THE UPPER
LOW...DIGGING IT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THEN
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO /CENTERED WELL WEST OF EL PASO/ ON
THURSDAY BEFORE IT BEGINS RETROGRADING TOWARD THE BAJA LATE WEEK.
THIS TREND RESULTS IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAN HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. ATTM...IT STILL DOES APPEAR THE UPPER LOW WILL COME CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING A PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE/LIFT TO THE WESTERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...PERHAPS EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPROCK ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE MOIST
TROPOSPHERE /WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.20 INCHES/
EFFICIENT RAINERS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT TRACKS REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. DRIER
AIR AND WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT DO CALL
INTO QUESTION HOW FAR EAST THE BETTER/HEAVIER RAIN CHANCES WILL
MAKE IT. IN FACT...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER TIGHT
RAINFALL GRADIENT LIKE WE SAW WITH THE PAST WEEKEND RAINS WHERE
THE WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES AND THE EASTERN MOST ZONES
MAY JUST SEE LIGHT AMOUNTS. PER THE TRENDS...WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID- TO
LATE-WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A HEAVY RAIN
MENTION ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING TO
MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS ADDED TO THE HWO. AS SPC HAS NOTED...IF
ENOUGH HEATING/INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED...A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD ALSO VISIT THE WESTERN SECTIONS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
THE LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER
LOW BACKS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
THE PICTURE FROM THE NORTH AS AN UPPER TROUGH CRUISES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME HEATING MAY
RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY /ALONG WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION/ TO SPUR
ADDITION SCATTERED CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS
WEST TEXAS IS BENEATH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW
MOVING BACK OUT INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION. ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING WAVE WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY SEND A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE REGION NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT IT SHOULD PROVIDE MINIMAL
COOLING.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...DECENT MOISTURE AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES WILL
TEND TO KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES SUPPRESSED THOUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED...ESPECIALLY UP ON THE CAPROCK. WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE BREEZES RETURN. IN FACT...THE LATEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS UP NEAR 90 DEGREES BY
SUNDAY. WE HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...BUT
NOT QUITE THAT WARM YET. THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBLE WEAK FRONT AND
MINOR COOLING MOVING IN AT SOME POINT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 56 69 53 67 / 40 60 70 60
TULIA 55 73 55 72 / 10 40 50 50
PLAINVIEW 56 75 56 73 / 10 30 60 60
LEVELLAND 55 75 56 71 / 20 50 80 70
LUBBOCK 58 77 57 73 / 10 30 60 60
DENVER CITY 55 73 57 69 / 40 60 80 70
BROWNFIELD 57 76 58 71 / 20 50 80 70
CHILDRESS 59 83 60 83 / 0 10 20 30
SPUR 58 83 60 78 / 0 10 30 50
ASPERMONT 58 87 63 84 / 0 10 20 40
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
431 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM DULUTH TO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING IN THIS REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED...CLOUD TRENDS AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION BEFORE EXITING EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE NIGHT.
THE MID-CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EXIT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. A NARROW BAND OF LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT...BUT POSE NO THREAT OF PRECIP. WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH COULD CREATE PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG IN THE
COLD SPOTS OVER N-C WI. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
PCPN TRENDS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND QPF AMOUNTS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
PCPN WILL DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE NW TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A 40-50 KT LLJ JET AND A COUPLED UPPER
JET DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
NORTHWEST WI. THIS FORCING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THURSDAY MORNING AND INTERACT WITH PWATS OF 1.00-1.33 INCHES AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (H8 LI`S OF 0 TO -2) TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A H8 WARM
FRONT WILL RESIDE... AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE
STRONGEST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY
AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH.
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE STORM TRACK DISPLACED WELL TO OUR NORTH...SO THIS
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE MOVG THROUGH NORTHERN WI
ON TUESDAY MAY BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE
THAT FAR OUT IS LOW. A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
MAINLY MID LEVEL BKN5000-7000 FT SWEEPING OVER THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SLIDES OVER. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM DULUTH TO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING IN THIS REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED...CLOUD TRENDS AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION BEFORE EXITING EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY LATE IN THE NIGHT.
THE MID-CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY EXIT DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. A NARROW BAND OF LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT...BUT POSE NO THREAT OF PRECIP. WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH COULD CREATE PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG IN THE
COLD SPOTS OVER N-C WI. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 40S NEAR THE LAKE.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH COOLER TEMPS. HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
PCPN TRENDS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND QPF AMOUNTS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
PCPN WILL DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE NW TWO-THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A 40-50 KT LLJ JET AND A COUPLED UPPER
JET DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
NORTHWEST WI. THIS FORCING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THURSDAY MORNING AND INTERACT WITH PWATS OF 1.00-1.33 INCHES AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (H8 LI`S OF 0 TO -2) TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A H8 WARM
FRONT WILL RESIDE... AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE
STRONGEST. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF EMBEDDED TSTMS ON THURSDAY
AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH.
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE STORM TRACK DISPLACED WELL TO OUR NORTH...SO THIS
LOOKS LIKE A DRY PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE MOVG THROUGH NORTHERN WI
ON TUESDAY MAY BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE
THAT FAR OUT IS LOW. A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015
BROKEN 5000-7000 FT CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY INTO LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT
FLYING WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC