Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/05/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FLAGSTAFF AZ
840 PM MST SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE/DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR
LOS ANGELES...SLOWLY MOVING EAST. VERY MODEST AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY CURRENTLY ARE ANALYZED OVER NORTHERN COCONINO
COUNTY...AS WELL AS EAST OF I-17/US 89. THE HRRR EXPECTS THIS
MODEST INSTABILITY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE CIN. IN
OTHER WORDS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET A STRONG STORM GOING
OVERNIGHT. THIS WAS EVIDENCED EARLIER THIS EVENING BY A STRONG
CELL OVER SOUTHERN NAVAJO COUNTY LIKELY PRODUCING HAIL.
WITH DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR INCREASING...AS WELL AS MODEST
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...THE PEAK OF SEVERE
STORM CHANCES IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOW
FILLING ONLY SLOWLY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AND CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON TUESDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES...WINDS...AND QPF HAVE BEEN UPDATED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /250 PM MST/...DEEP CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH DEW POINTS NOW IN THE 40S TO THE LOW 50S
IN MOST AREAS. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...BETWEEN 500 AND
600MB...HAVE KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ONLY IN THE PAST HOUR HAVE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN IN YAVAPAI
AND COCONINO COUNTIES HAVE RESULTED IN 0.25 TO 0.5" ACCUMULATIONS
IN FAVORED AREAS.
WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...FOCUS IS NOW ON IDENTIFYING
DESTABILIZING FACTORS THAT MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION. WITH RECENT
CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA...WE MAY SEE ENOUGH ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO PICK UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY...SFC-BASED CAPE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.
LIKELY MORE SIGNIFICANT...IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST TWO
DESTABILIZING FACTORS MAY COME TO PLAY ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES NORTHERN ARIZONA...WE`LL SEE
SIGNIFICANT COOLING IN THE CAPPING 500-600MB LAYER DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE APPEARS TO BE SUPPORT FOR A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW WHICH MAY IMPACT THE
AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING MARGINAL/MODEST INSTABILITY...BUT COPIOUS SHEAR/HELICITY
FOR ORGANIZED...POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING.
OTHER THAN THE CONVECTIVE THREAT...THE STRONG SLOW-MOVING CLOSED
LOW WILL BRING RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
PEAKS RECEIVING THEIR FIRST SNOW OF THE YEAR. SEVERAL INCHES ARE
LIKELY ABOVE 10,000 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY...WE CAN
EXPECT FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD TURN SEVERE...ESPECIALLY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS...WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/LIFR IN HEAVIER BANDS. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...TAYLOR/BAK
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
920 PM MST FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME BREEZINESS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN AZ
BORDER IS APPROACHING THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
COCHISE COUNTY THIS HOUR...WELL MARKED BY THE CLOUDS ON IR IMAGERY.
MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG SITTING OVER SE
HALF OF COCHISE COUNTY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BUT HAVE MANAGED TO ESCAPE ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THUS FAR. THE EARLIER NAM RUNS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATED
PRECIP THIS AREA THIS EVENING BUT NO INDICATIONS OF THAT HAPPENING
IN THE REAL WORLD SO NO CHANGES TO BE MADE AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY COOLER
AIR WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR HIGH TEMPS 6-8 DEGREES
COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO
KICK UP A BIT OF A BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
WEST...GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE SE HALF OF COCHISE COUNTY ONCE AGAIN
AS THAT AREA IS ON THE EDGE THE BAND OF MOISTURE. CERNIGLIA
REMAINDER FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...02/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NEXT STRONGER UPPER LOW TO BE OVER NRN CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SAT NIGHT...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. HOWEVER...AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER NORTH INCLUDING THE TUCSON
METRO AREA LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING AS PER THE 02/12Z NAM.
FOR NOW...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS NAM SOLUTION BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH VERSUS THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY SUN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY SWD
TOWARD NEAR LOS ANGELES. THE UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY INTO MON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF
TUCSON SUN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON WWD INTO THE
TOHONO O`ODHAM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUN ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS MON. SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MON GIVEN THE PROGGED CAPES...WIND
SHEER PROFILES AND THE PRESENCE OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS
TO ROTATE NEWD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BEGIN FILLING AND MOVE NEWD INTO SRN
NEVADA EARLY TUE. THE GFS/ECMWF WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH THIS
SCENARIO. DRYING IS PROGGED MOSTLY ABOVE 500 MB TUE AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES SLOWLY EWD INTO NRN ARIZONA. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT GENERALLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE
SEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE WED. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST WED. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH WED. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WED NIGHT-FRI AS THE UPPER LOW
ADVANCES GENERALLY SEWD INTO FAR WEST TEXAS/CHIHUAHUA MEXICO.
PRELIMINARY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR SUN MORNING INTO EARLY TUE MORNING
ARE PROJECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF INCH IN THE VALLEYS...AND FROM ONE HALF OF AN INCH
TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TUE-WED
AND THESE WILL LIKELY BE ADDRESSED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
DISCUSSIONS.
A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR SAT-TUE...WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPS TO PREVAIL TUE-WED. EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS THUR-FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/06Z.
SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL MAINLY
E OF A LINE FROM KOLS TO KTUS TO KSAD THRU 03/08Z. OTHERWISE...SKC
CONDITIONS TIL 03/19Z. AFT 03/19Z...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL.
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS 03/16Z. AFT 03/16Z
INCREASING SURFACE WIND WITH SLY/SWLY SURFACE WIND AT 12-18 KTS AND
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND FROM KTUS
EASTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT BREEZY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL START SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLATED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
322 PM PDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Storm moving into NorCal will bring cooler weather, windy
conditions, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms this
weekend. Showers will linger into Monday over the Sierra Nevada
south of Highway 50.
&&
.DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
The approaching storm will be centered over NorCal this evening.
Water Vapor and Visible satellite imagery are showing the
circulation`s center near the OR/CA border this afternoon. On
radar, we are already seeing instability from the storm as
thunderstorms develop east of the Sierra Crest in Lassen County
and also in Western Nevada. The HRRR model indicates that showers
and possible thunderstorms should develop west of the Sierra Crest
after 5 pm this evening...with a slight chance of some showers
working their way into portions of the valley overnight. Showers
expected to continue into Sunday afternoon but will push southward
as the low tracks towards SoCal. Total rain amounts will be very
light in the valley (trace amounts to a few hundredths) while rain
over the western Sierra slopes could range from a tenth of an inch
up to a half inch (locally higher near the crest and in vicinity
of thunderstorms). Snow levels will be above 9000 ft so light snow
amounts are possible near the Sierra Crest.
The primary concern with this storm are the increasing winds as
this storm tracks across our region. 3 pm wind observations at
Redding Airport had gusts close to 40 mph...Sacramento
International gusts near 25 mph...Vacaville gusts near 30 mph.
Strongest north to northeast winds this evening will be in the
Northern/Western Sacramento Valley and the Coastal Range between
Shasta County to Lake County with gusts up to 40 mph for valley
and up to 50 mph in higher terrain. Overnight, northeasterly winds
will also pick up along the western Sierra slopes north of
Interstate 80 with gusts 40-50 mph. Winds could easily knock down
large branches and trees that have been weakened by the drought
and wildfires. Downed trees may cause power outages or damage
vehicles/buildings. Wind advisory remains in effect overnight into
Sunday morning. Winds will gradually lessen throughout the day
Sunday and any shower activity should be limited to areas south of
Interstate 80.
Another concern overnight is whether thunderstorms develop near
burnscars along the Sierra Nevada. Heavy downpours from the
thunderstorms could cause debris flows (ie near the Butte Fire).
JBB
Showers may linger over the Sierra south of Highway 50 on Monday
due to wraparound moisture from the Low over southern NV/southeast
CA area. Ridging builds in with gradually increasing temperatures
and dry conditions as the Low weakens and moves eastward.
JClapp/JHM
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Upper level high pressure ridging expected to remain over the
western U.S through the extended period. Genreally light winds are
expected through this time. Daytime highs Wednesday are forecast
to come in near to a little above normal. Temperatures will warm
slightly each day reaching several degrees above normal by next
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Upper low dropping southward through northern California over
next 24 hours. Scattered Showers and isolated thunderstorms
mainly over the sierra tonight. VFR conditons expected next 24
horus with ceilings above 50k feet. Gusty winds over the
Sacrametno valley...coastal mountains and southern Cascades into
Sunday. North to northeast wind gusts over 40 mph possible.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Central Sacramento
Valley-Clear Lake/Southern Lake County-Mountains Southwestern
Shasta County to Northern Lake County-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Shasta
Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-Western Plumas County/Lassen
Park.
RED FLAG WARNING until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Central Sacramento
Valley in Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern Sutter, and Butte County
Below 1000 Ft-Eastern Mendocino NF-Eastern Portion of
Shasta/Trinity NF-Lake County Portion of Lake-Napa-Sonoma Unit-
Northern Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama County Line Below
1000 Ft-Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western Portions of
Tehama-Glenn Unit-Southern Sacramento Valley in Yolo-Sacramento
Far Western Placer, southern Sutter and Solano County Below 1000
Ft.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
814 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAD ENDED EARLY THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARK COUNTY. HAVE TAKEN OUT PCPN IN MOST AREAS
EXCEPT FOR MTN AREAS. OTHERWISE EXPECT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT FM THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE GIVEN BETTER
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. STRONGEST STORM NOW OVER WESTERN ELBERT
COUNTY IN AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY. JUST GOT A REPORT OF SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH THIS STORM. MOST OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH LACK OF HEATING. EXPECT SOME
RESURGENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATER TONIGHT BUT PROBABLY NOT
AS EXTENSIVE AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH WEAKER SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
NOT AS WRAPPED UP CYCLONE.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHER AS
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA LOW SHIFTS INLAND INTO NEVADA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AND
BETTER MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT MONDAY EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH SOME MOVEMENT OUT OVER
THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES INTO ARIZONA BY TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW
WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AND WEAK
QG LIFT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THEN OVER THE PLAINS IN THE EVENING. EXPECT A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS FORECAST CAPES REACH INTO THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO MONDAY
OVER THE PLAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO SOUTHERN AZ BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE STATE. WITH THE LOW HEADING
FURTHER SOUTH...EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE...PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE STATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE
DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 808 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
STRATUS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER DIA AND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE ABOUT FOG AS NEITHER THE HRRR OR RAP SHOW ANY
AFFECTING DIA SO WILL JUST KEEP VICINITY IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY NELY OVERNIGHT BUT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 12Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1132 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING AS
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. DRIER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS ENDED PRECIP MOST LOCATIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH A FEW -SHRA WERE LINGERING ALONG THE NM
AND KS BORDERS AS OF 0930Z. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MAINLY EL PASO/PUEBLO COUNTIES...THOUGH WITH LOW
LEVEL WINDS KEEPING MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT(VERSUS S-SE 24 HRS
AGO)...HAVE YET TO SEE MUCH IF ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOP. OTHER THAN A
FEW -SHRA NEAR THE KS BORDER EARLY...EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE
PRECIP FREE FROM SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY...AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPWARD MOTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN COLORADO. HAVE ALSO
PULLED MENTION OF FOG FROM MOST LOCATIONS AS LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS
SUGGEST ONLY VERY PATCHY AREAS OF LOWER VISIBILITY...LIMITED TO
MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF EL PASO COUNTY. BY LATE MORNING...EXPECT
LOWER CLOUDS TO BREAK WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA MAKES IT TOUGH TO RULE
OUT SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THOUGH MOST MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP
CHANCES. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWN TO ISOLATED MOST AREAS...AND DELAY
TIMING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS LATEST HRRR HAS NO CONVECTION FORMING
THROUGH 19Z. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA LOOK SEASONABLY COOL WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN THE LEE OF THE WETS/SANGRES...WHERE CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKEST THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD DIE FAIRLY QUICKLY MANY AREAS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THOUGH WON`T COMPLETELY END THINGS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
MOST MODELS KEEP SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES GOING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SUPPOSE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUN
MORNING...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE WHERE CONVECTIVE PRECIP FALLS BEFORE
ADDING ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
...CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MODELS ARE NOW IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OR AND ON TO THE CA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE MTS...THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUNDAY...SERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN PLAINS AND COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...BUT
SHOULD NOT BE TOO WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING. SWRLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH ALOFT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EWD FROM THE
SRN CA COAST. TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD BE PLEASANT...IN THE
70S...WHILE THE MTS COOL TO THE 50S AND 60S.
PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW MTS ON
MONDAY...AS THE UPPR LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SW. WILL SEE A GOOD
TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE BAJA REGION NWD INTO WRN NM AND
CO. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED MODT-HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CONTDVD MON
AFTERNOON AND EVE. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EWD ON TUESDAY. THE PLAINS SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY UNTIL LATE
TUE AFTERNOON OR EVE...AND THE INCREASED S-SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARM
CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S.
MODEL CONSENSUS THEN TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL NM. THE ECMWF IS
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH THIS TRACK...BUT DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT. WITH THE MORE SRLY
TRAJECTORY...THE COLD CORE WILL REMAIN S OF OUR AREA AND H7 TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMS
WILL BE CONFINED TOT HE HIGHER PEAKS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE HIGHER PASSES IN CHAFFEE AND LAKE
COUNTIES...IN PARTICULAR INDEPENDENCE PASS WHICH COULD SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FALL BY WED. MAY SEE OUR FIRST WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IF
THE CURRENT PROGS HOLD UP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP E OF THE MTS
WILL COME WED NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT
WITH THE MORE SRLY TRACK AND WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM...IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES ON THE BACKSIDE
IN NRLY FLOW ALOFT THAT KEEP THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTS.
ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
354 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING AS
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. DRIER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS ENDED PRECIP MOST LOCATIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH A FEW -SHRA WERE LINGERING ALONG THE NM
AND KS BORDERS AS OF 0930Z. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MAINLY EL PASO/PUEBLO COUNTIES...THOUGH WITH LOW
LEVEL WINDS KEEPING MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT(VERSUS S-SE 24 HRS
AGO)...HAVE YET TO SEE MUCH IF ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOP. OTHER THAN A
FEW -SHRA NEAR THE KS BORDER EARLY...EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE
PRECIP FREE FROM SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY...AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPWARD MOTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN COLORADO. HAVE ALSO
PULLED MENTION OF FOG FROM MOST LOCATIONS AS LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS
SUGGEST ONLY VERY PATCHY AREAS OF LOWER VISIBILITY...LIMITED TO
MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF EL PASO COUNTY. BY LATE MORNING...EXPECT
LOWER CLOUDS TO BREAK WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA MAKES IT TOUGH TO RULE
OUT SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THOUGH MOST MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP
CHANCES. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWN TO ISOLATED MOST AREAS...AND DELAY
TIMING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS LATEST HRRR HAS NO CONVECTION FORMING
THROUGH 19Z. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA LOOK SEASONABLY COOL WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN THE LEE OF THE WETS/SANGRES...WHERE CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKEST THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD DIE FAIRLY QUICKLY MANY AREAS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THOUGH WON`T COMPLETELY END THINGS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
MOST MODELS KEEP SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES GOING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SUPPOSE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUN
MORNING...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE WHERE CONVECTIVE PRECIP FALLS BEFORE
ADDING ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
...CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MODELS ARE NOW IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OR AND ON TO THE CA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE MTS...THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUNDAY...SERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN PLAINS AND COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...BUT
SHOULD NOT BE TOO WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING. SWRLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH ALOFT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EWD FROM THE
SRN CA COAST. TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD BE PLEASANT...IN THE
70S...WHILE THE MTS COOL TO THE 50S AND 60S.
PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW MTS ON
MONDAY...AS THE UPPR LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SW. WILL SEE A GOOD
TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE BAJA REGION NWD INTO WRN NM AND
CO. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED MODT-HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CONTDVD MON
AFTERNOON AND EVE. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EWD ON TUESDAY. THE PLAINS SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY UNTIL LATE
TUE AFTERNOON OR EVE...AND THE INCREASED S-SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARM
CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S.
MODEL CONSENSUS THEN TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL NM. THE ECMWF IS
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH THIS TRACK...BUT DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT. WITH THE MORE SRLY
TRAJECTORY...THE COLD CORE WILL REMAIN S OF OUR AREA AND H7 TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMS
WILL BE CONFINED TOT HE HIGHER PEAKS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE HIGHER PASSES IN CHAFFEE AND LAKE
COUNTIES...IN PARTICULAR INDEPENDENCE PASS WHICH COULD SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FALL BY WED. MAY SEE OUR FIRST WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IF
THE CURRENT PROGS HOLD UP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP E OF THE MTS
WILL COME WED NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT
WITH THE MORE SRLY TRACK AND WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM...IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES ON THE BACKSIDE
IN NRLY FLOW ALOFT THAT KEEP THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTS.
ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
AT KALS...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME VERY ISOLATED TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. SW WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
AT KCOS...IFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH
PERHAPS SOME BRIEF LIFR AROUND SUNRISE. CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG LOOKS
TO BE DECREASING AS WINDS STAY MORE E-NE...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL COULD DROP BELOW A MILE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO BREAK BY MID-MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
AND GUST 20-25 KNOTS FOR A TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING. MAY SEE A TSRA OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WEST OF THE
TERMINAL...BUT WON`T INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.
AT KPUB...IFR CIGS EARLY WILL BREAK BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MAY SEE A
TSRA OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WON`T INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
219 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX AND
UNPROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
TODAY. MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR WEATHER IS A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW FEATURE OVER AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE
REGION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH HAS PUSHED THE DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE IT FEEDS
NORTHWARD INTO A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. QUITE THE DRY AIRMASS ALOFT HAS ARRIVED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE WAKE OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME. ALL
THE HEAVY RAIN IS TO REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH
OUR OWN MORE LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THAT WILL BE DISCUSSED
FURTHER DOWN IN THE DISCUSSION.
THE 03/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED WELL THE EXTENT OF THE DRY
AIR ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN
EXTENDS UP TO AROUND 850MB...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DRYING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPOPAUSE. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE QUITE HIGH
THROUGH THIS DEEP LAYER. THE PW VALUE SAMPLE BY THE SOUNDING WAS
JUST UNDER 1" THIS MORNING...WHICH FALLS ONLY AROUND THE 10TH
PERCENTILE OF VALUES FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
LOBES OF ENERGY ARE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST...WITH ONE JUST NOW EXITING THE REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW ISO-SCT SHOWERS OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHALLOW IN NATURE
DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT...AND HENCE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE
AND NOT TALL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. MAJORITY OF THE SCT LIGHT SHOWER HAVE MIGRATED SOUTH OF
THE TAMPA BAY AREA ACROSS THE SUNCOAST...ALTHOUGH NEW ACTIVITY IS
BEING DETECTED WELL OUT OF THE GULF...AND SO WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST.
REGARDLESS...ANY SHOWERS WILL JUST BE OF THE PASSING
VARIETY...WITH MOST OF THE DAY WILL DRY AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE DRY AIR ALOFT OVERTOP THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE LAYER HAS BEEN IDEAL FOR THE MAINTAINING OF LOW STRATUS.
THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING STUBBORN...AND HAVE HAD TO INCREASE THE
CLOUD COVER PERCENTAGES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NATURE COAST THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SCT SHOWERS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD
NOT BE ENOUGH TO RUIN MUCH IN THE WAY OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES FOR A PASSING SHOWER WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THIS WILL ALSO BE WHERE THE MOST SUN IS SEEN
THE REST OF THE DAY. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER
CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN TO BREAK INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MORE
IN THE WAY OF SUNNY BREAKS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AFTER 17-18Z.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE FOR OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND IS A LOBE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY ORIENTED OVER CENTRAL AL/MS. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND THEN EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
THIS IS A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TO BE CROSSING
THE GULF...AND THE GUIDANCE ENSEMBLES SHOW A VERY HEALTHY SWATH OF
DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT/QG CONVERGENCE PIVOTING TOWARD
AND ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL STILL BE QUITE DRY...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FCST
BY MANY OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BIT
MORE MOISTURE BELOW 20KFT THAN WE CURRENTLY SEE ALOFT TODAY. THE
STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...COMBINED WITH THIS ADDED COLUMN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS (PERIOD OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS) MOVING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA...AND THEN INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD SEE GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXCLUDING LEVY COUNTY. THERE IS
ACTUALLY VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SHARP CUTOFF IN QPF NORTH OF
CITRUS COUNTY. WILL STILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR LEVY...BUT
THE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR NWP GUIDANCE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LATEST NAM/SREF/CAM GUIDANCE
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OFF THE EASTERN
GULF AFTER 06-09Z SUNDAY MORNING WITHIN THE SWATH OF DEEP QG FORCING
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND QUICKLY MIGRATE TOWARD THE COAST.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ASHORE AND
SPREADING INLAND THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY. NOT THAT IT WILL
BE RAINING ALL DAY...BUT RATHER THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER AT JUST
ABOUT ANY TIME WILL BE THERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...BUT HAVE INCREASE
POPS TO LIKELY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA BASED ON CONSENSUS
OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE MAIN
FORCING WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT EAST OF THE AREA...SO WILL SHOW A SLOW
DECLINE IN POP COVERAGE AFTER 21Z...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE DEGREE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LESSEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND OVERALL LIGHTNING THREAT
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENINSULA...THE MID-LEVEL TEMPS BECOME QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN THESE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT CAN OVERCOME THE DRIER AIR
FOR A TIME. THEREFORE...WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS.
CAN ALSO NOT RULE OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS...HOWEVER...LIKELY THAT FEW STORMS WILL GROW TO A
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DEPTH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE HAIL
GROWTH LAYER.
&&
.LONG TERM...
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH A 500 MB LOW PUSHING OVER FLORIDA AS
JOAQUIN EXITS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SIT OFF THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD OF THE UNITED STATES...TILTING OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HELP ENCOURAGE
CONVECTION...WITH THE SUPPORT ALOFT MAKING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
EVEN AS THE MID-LEVEL SUPPORT DEPARTS THE AREA MID TO LATE
WEEK...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. OVERALL...RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN MENTIONABLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
A LACK OF SUSTAINED DRY AIR IN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FEEL A BIT COOLER IN THE MORNINGS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S STARTING TO CREEP INTO THE NATURE COAST
AND KNOCKING AT THE DOOR OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA ON SOME MORNINGS
EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE THINGS WARM BACK UP SLIGHTLY TO END THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITION ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS
WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR ALL TERMINALS.
PASSING MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
NORTHEAST...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE WEEK. NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINS WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES. WINDS THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 69 81 71 84 / 40 40 30 20
FMY 72 84 72 85 / 30 30 30 40
GIF 67 84 68 84 / 10 40 30 20
SRQ 74 82 72 83 / 30 50 30 20
BKV 63 81 66 83 / 20 40 30 20
SPG 72 81 73 83 / 40 50 30 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...GARCIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1159 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
16Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX AND
UNPROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
TODAY. MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR WEATHER IS A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW FEATURE OVER AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE
REGION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH HAS PUSHED THE DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE IT FEEDS
NORTHWARD INTO A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. QUITE THE DRY AIRMASS ALOFT HAS ARRIVED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE WAKE OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME. ALL
THE HEAVY RAIN IS TO REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH
OUR OWN MORE LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THAT WILL BE DISCUSSED
FURTHER DOWN IN THE DISCUSSION.
THE 03/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED WELL THE EXTENT OF THE DRY
AIR ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN
EXTENDS UP TO AROUND 850MB...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DRYING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPOPAUSE. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE QUITE HIGH
THROUGH THIS DEEP LAYER. THE PW VALUE SAMPLE BY THE SOUNDING WAS
JUST UNDER 1" THIS MORNING...WHICH FALLS ONLY AROUND THE 10TH
PERCENTILE OF VALUES FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
LOBES OF ENERGY ARE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST...WITH ONE JUST NOW EXITING THE REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW ISO-SCT SHOWERS OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHALLOW IN NATURE
DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT...AND HENCE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE
AND NOT TALL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. MAJORITY OF THE SCT LIGHT SHOWER HAVE MIGRATED SOUTH OF
THE TAMPA BAY AREA ACROSS THE SUNCOAST...ALTHOUGH NEW ACTIVITY IS
BEING DETECTED WELL OUT OF THE GULF...AND SO WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST.
REGARDLESS...ANY SHOWERS WILL JUST BE OF THE PASSING
VARIETY...WITH MOST OF THE DAY WILL DRY AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE DRY AIR ALOFT OVERTOP THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE LAYER HAS BEEN IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS.
THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING STUBBORN...AND HAVE HAD TO INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER PERCENTAGES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NATURE COAST THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP OVER THE
COMING HOURS...BUT A GENERAL FORECAST OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SEEMS
APPROPRIATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SCT SHOWERS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD
NOT BE ENOUGH TO RUIN MUCH IN THE WAY OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES FOR A PASSING SHOWER WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THIS WILL ALSO BE WHERE THE MOST SUN IS SEEN
THE REST OF THE DAY. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER
CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN TO BREAK INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MORE
IN THE WAY OF SUNNY BREAKS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AFTER 17-18Z.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE FOR OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND IS A LOBE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY ORIENTED OVER CENTRAL AL/MS. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND THEN EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
THIS IS A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TO BE CROSSING
THE GULF...AND THE GUIDANCE ENSEMBLES SHOW A VERY HEALTHY SWATH OF
DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT/QG CONVERGENCE PIVOTING TOWARD
AND ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL STILL BE QUITE DRY...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FCST
BY MANY OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BIT
MORE MOISTURE BELOW 20KFT THAN WE CURRENTLY SEE ALOFT TODAY. THE
STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...COMBINED WITH THIS ADDED COLUMN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS (PERIOD OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS) MOVING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA...AND THEN INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD SEE GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXCLUDING LEVY COUNTY. THERE IS
ACTUALLY VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SHARP CUTOFF IN QPF NORTH OF
CITRUS COUNTY. WILL STILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR LEVY...BUT
THE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR NWP GUIDANCE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LATEST NAM/SREF/CAM GUIDANCE
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OFF THE EASTERN
GULF AFTER 06-09Z SUNDAY MORNING WITHIN THE SWATH OF DEEP QG FORCING
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND QUICKLY MIGRATE TOWARD THE COAST.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ASHORE AND
SPREADING INLAND THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY. NOT THAT IT WILL
BE RAINING ALL DAY...BUT RATHER THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER AT JUST
ABOUT ANY TIME WILL BE THERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...BUT WILL HAVE TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA BASED ON
CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE MAIN FORCING WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT EAST OF THE
AREA...SO WILL SHOW A SLOW DECLINE IN POP COVERAGE AFTER 21Z...BUT
WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - NEXT FRIDAY)...
A POTENT CUTOFF LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRIVEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE PERIPHERY OF THE COMPACT UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY WILL MORE OR LESS WASH OUT...AS THE UPPER LOW
EVENTUALLY PULLS AWAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY DRY DAYS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY MOVE INLAND FROM THE EAST COAST...BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG THE SUN OR
NATURE COASTS.
MORE OF A LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...AS
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...AND
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES...MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE AROUND OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE...AS DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. BY MID TO LATE WEEK...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S LIKELY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITION ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS
WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR ALL TERMINALS.
PASSING MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
NORTHEAST...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE WEEK. NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINS WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES. WINDS THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 69 81 71 / 30 40 40 30
FMY 85 72 84 72 / 50 30 30 30
GIF 84 67 84 68 / 10 10 40 30
SRQ 81 74 82 72 / 40 30 50 30
BKV 80 63 81 66 / 10 20 40 30
SPG 81 72 81 73 / 30 40 50 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...AUSTIN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
748 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WITH VERY HIGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. EXPECT DRYING
TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE 2348Z AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 430 AM. THIS
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT
FOR EARTHEN DAM BREAKS. NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN CLOSED THROUGHOUT
THE REGION. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION...
UPDATE 22Z THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED IN THE CSRA.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGEST MUCH LOWER HOURLY RAIN RATES OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO DROP WATCH FOR THE AUGUSTA METRO
AREA AND REST OF THE CSRA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN FL WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW PUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL SC COAST THROUGH THE MIDLANDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS WITH
FLOODING OCCURRING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AT 20Z...THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...ALTHOUGH HOURLY RAIN RATES ARE A LITTLE LOWER.
RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWEST AND MAINLY AFFECT THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS.
SITUATION WHICH CONTINUES TO UNFOLD HAS REACHED CRITICAL
LEVELS...SCEMD HAS ISSUED A CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE URGING
EVERYONE TO REMAIN AT A SAFE AND DRY LOCATION AND ONLY LEAVE IF
TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.
OTHER CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. COMBINED WITH THE
SATURATED SOILS THIS WILL RESULT IN TREES BEING BLOWN
DOWN...INCLUDING ACROSS ROADWAYS AND INTO POWERLINES. NUMEROUS
TREES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED BLOWN DOWN DUE TO THE SATURATED
SOILS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAIN
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT AT MOST 1 TO 2 INCHES
ADDITIONAL. LESS QPF TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BUT THE MODELS INDICATE LESS FORCING AND QPF. THE MODELS DEPICT
THE H5 LOW CONTOURS BECOME CONFLUENT WITH THE H85 JET BACKING
FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHING FROM 40 TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS
MONDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHEAST PART. RUNOFF FROM THE EXTREME RAIN EVENT SHOULD STILL BE
AN ISSUE AND SOME AREA RIVERS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIVER FLOODING SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH A
SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
LIGHT TO MODERATE BAND OF RAIN ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
LOWER AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
MONDAY BECOMING SCATTERED BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY
VFR. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS.
WINDS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS VSBYS TO
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
739 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WITH VERY HIGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. EXPECT DRYING
TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE 22Z THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED IN THE CSRA.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGEST MUCH LOWER HOURLY RAIN RATES OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO DROP WATCH FOR THE AUGUSTA METRO
AREA AND REST OF THE CSRA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN FL WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW PUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL SC COAST THROUGH THE MIDLANDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS WITH
FLOODING OCCURRING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AT 20Z...THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...ALTHOUGH HOURLY RAIN RATES ARE A LITTLE LOWER.
RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWEST AND MAINLY AFFECT THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING RAINS MAY BE DIMINISHED IN THE CSRA...MAY DROP WATCH
EARLY THERE...BUT FOR NOW LETS KEEP OUR GUARD UP AS GFS STILL
SUGGESTS SOME RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AUGUSTA AREA.
SITUATION WHICH CONTINUES TO UNFOLD HAS REACHED CRITICAL
LEVELS...SCEMD HAS ISSUED A CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE URGING
EVERYONE TO REMAIN AT A SAFE AND DRY LOCATION AND ONLY LEAVE IF
TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.
OTHER CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. COMBINED WITH THE
SATURATED SOILS THIS WILL RESULT IN TREES BEING BLOWN
DOWN...INCLUDING ACROSS ROADWAYS AND INTO POWERLINES. NUMEROUS
TREES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED BLOWN DOWN DUE TO THE SATURATED
SOILS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAIN
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL SEE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 3 MAINLY IN THE EAST. LESS QPF TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BUT THE MODELS INDICATE LESS FORCING AND QPF. THE MODELS DEPICT
THE H5 LOW CONTOURS BECOME CONFLUENT WITH THE H85 JET BACKING
FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHING FROM 40 TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS
MONDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHEAST PART. RUNOFF FROM THE EXTREME RAIN EVENT SHOULD STILL BE
AN ISSUE AND SOME AREA RIVERS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIVER FLOODING SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH A
SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
LIGHT TO MODERATE BAND OF RAIN ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
LOWER AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
MONDAY BECOMING SCATTERED BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY
VFR. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS.
WINDS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS VSBYS TO
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING HEAVY RAIN.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
DRYING WILL OCCUR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H5 LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BORDER THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY A SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE PEE DEE REGION EARLY TODAY TO THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PLUS AN H85 JET WILL RESULT IN A BAND
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROPICAL
CONNECTION WITH THE MOISTURE AND THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 2 INCHES IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS INDICATED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS. THE NAM...
ECMWF...SREF MEAN HAD LOWER AMOUNTS. LEANED TOWARD THE SREF MEAN.
BELIEVE TOTALS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY 4 TO 8 INCHES AND
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLOODING COULD RESULT. RADAR TRENDS AND THE
HRRR SUGGESTS THE HEAVY RAIN FOCUS WILL GENERALLY SHIFT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE HRRR DISPLAYS THE MAIN BAND EXTENDING
THROUGH THE SOUTH MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG H85 EASTERLY JET
WITH HIGH MOISTURE. EXPECT DIFLUENT FLOW NORTH OF THE H5 LOW. RAIN
RATES MAY BE DIMINISHED BECAUSE OF LESS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH SATURATED GROUND AND CONTINUED TROPICAL MOISTURE
THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WILL BE RIVER
FLOODING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE H5 LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OFF THE COAST MONDAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE. EXPECT DRYING
TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY IN
AN ONSHORE FLOW. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR WITH IFR AT TIMES DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WITH EAST FLOW.
RAIN...PATCHY AT THE MOMENT AT AREA TERMINALS WILL INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING...BECOMING MODERATE AND HEAVY AT TIMES AT CAE/CUB AND OGB
THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL
TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EAST 1O TO 20 KNOTS...A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHTER WINDS IN THE AGS AREA WHERE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
410 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING HEAVY RAIN.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
DRYING WILL OCCUR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H5 LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BORDER THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY A SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE PEE DEE REGION EARLY TODAY TO THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PLUS AN H85 JET WILL RESULT IN A BAND
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROPICAL
CONNECTION WITH THE MOISTURE AND THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 2 INCHES IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS INDICATED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS. THE NAM...
ECMWF...SREF MEAN HAD LOWER AMOUNTS. GENERALLY USED AN AVERAGE OF
OF THE GUIDANCE. BELIEVE SOME TOTALS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
NEAR 8 INCHES AND PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLOODING COULD RESULT.
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE HEAVY RAIN FOCUS WILL
GENERALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG H85 EASTERLY JET
WITH HIGH MOISTURE. EXPECT DIFLUENT FLOW NORTH OF THE H5 LOW. RAIN
RATES MAY BE DIMINISHED BECAUSE OF LESS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH SATURATED GROUND AND CONTINUED TROPICAL MOISTURE
THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE RIVER
FLOODING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE H5 LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OFF THE COAST MONDAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE MONDAY. EXPECT
DRYING TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY WITH RIDGING
DOMINATING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE
FRIDAY IN AN ONSHORE FLOW. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR WITH IFR AT TIMES DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WITH EAST FLOW.
RAIN...PATCHY AT THE MOMENT AT AREA TERMINALS WILL INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING...BECOMING MODERATE AND HEAVY AT TIMES AT CAE/CUB AND OGB
THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL
TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EAST 1O TO 20 KNOTS...A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHTER WINDS IN THE AGS AREA WHERE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
218 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING HEAVY RAIN.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
DRYING WILL OCCUR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H5 LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BORDER THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY A SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE PEE DEE REGION EARLY TODAY TO THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PLUS AN H85 JET WILL RESULT IN A BAND
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROPICAL
CONNECTION WITH THE MOISTURE AND THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 2 INCHES IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS INDICATED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS. THE NAM...
ECMWF...SREF MEAN HAD LOWER AMOUNTS. GENERALLY USED AN AVERAGE OF
OF THE GUIDANCE. BELIEVE SOME TOTALS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
NEAR 8 INCHES AND PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLOODING COULD RESULT.
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE HEAVY RAIN FOCUS WILL
GENERALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG H85 EASTERLY JET
WITH HIGH MOISTURE. EXPECT DIFLUENT FLOW NORTH OF THE H5 LOW. RAIN
RATES MAY BE DIMINISHED BECAUSE OF LESS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH SATURATED GROUND AND CONTINUED TROPICAL MOISTURE
THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE RIVER
FLOODING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE H5 LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OFF THE COAST MONDAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE MONDAY. EXPECT
DRYING TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY WITH RIDGING
DOMINATING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE
FRIDAY IN AN ONSHORE FLOW. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR WITH IFR AT TIMES DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WITH EAST FLOW.
RAIN...PATCHY AT THE MOMENT AT AREA TERMINALS WILL INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING...BECOMING MODERATE AND HEAVY AT TIMES AT CAE/CUB AND OGB
THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL
TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EAST 1O TO 20 KNOTS...A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHTER WINDS IN THE AGS AREA WHERE SURFACE TROUGH/CALL AREA
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
125 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
...RECORD RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY...
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS LIFTING INLAND ON
SUNDAY...THEN MOVING AWAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PREVAIL DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE
JOAQUIN WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS UPPER CHARLESTON SO FAR THIS
MORNING WHERE POCKETS OF 4-6 INCH RAINS HAVE A LIKELY OCCURRED.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE BAND SLOWLY MOVING WEST/SOUTHWEST
OVER THE COMING HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW DROPPING A BIT
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS WITHIN A
BAND OF ENHANCED 850-700 HPA INFLOW. CONVECTION WILL ALSO INCREASE
WITH SHOWALTER VALUES DROPPING WELL BELOW 0C. THIS WILL ONLY
ENHANCE THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT. HAVE REORIENTED THE
POP FORECAST AND QPF SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT GOING TRENDS. THE NEAR
TERM RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS OVER CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY
COUNTIES WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM.
THE COASTAL FRONT HAS REACHED THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON COUNTY
WHERE BOTH FOLLY BEACH AND ISLE OF PALMS ARE NOW IN THE 70S. THE
COASTAL FRONT WILL MEANDER INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER IT IT UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR IT WILL PENETRATE.
THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG CHARLESTON AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES THROUGH SUNRISE THERE THE LATEST RAP SHOWS
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND 0-1KM HELICITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST CONSENSUS FORECAST IS STILL
SHOWING A HIGH POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINS AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWFA. WHAT IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN IS ACTUALLY
WHERE THE BAND OR BANDS OF EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS WILL SET
UP...ALIGNED IN AN EAST/SE TO WEST/NW ORIENTATION. OUR LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST AND POTENTIAL RECORD SETTING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY
DISTRICT INTO PERHAPS PARTS OF BEAUFORT...HAMPTON AND ALLENDALE
COUNTIES. BUT THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF
QPF RANGING FROM 8-10 INCHES NORTH AND CENTRAL DOWN TO 1 INCH OR
LESS FAR SOUTH. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THOUGH WILL OCCUR. THE
GROUNDS ARE SATURATED IN MANY AREAS...SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL
ESSENTIALLY JUST RUN-OFF RATHER THAN BEING ABSORBED IN THE GROUND.
A DYNAMIC AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS CLOSED OFF MID AND UPPER LOW WILL
MEANDER IN FAR SW GA AS IT ASSOCIATED TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE TROUGH ALOFT. AT
THE SURFACE A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SITUATED NOT FAR OFF
THE SE COAST WHERE WE FIND A COASTAL WARM FRONT STUCK BETWEEN THE
GULF STREAM AND THE CONTINENTAL SHELF. WHILE THE ONGOING RAINS MAY
ACT TO RE-ENFORCE THE ONGOING WEDGE...THIS IS COUNTER-BALANCED BY A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTH NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE GA/SC COASTS. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PIVOT
TOWARD OR ONSHORE OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS AS MUCH AS 2.5 INCHES WILL BE DRAWN NORTH IN A
DEEP AND RICH TROPICAL FEED OF MOISTURE THAT HAS ITS ORIGINS FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND SW ATLANTIC. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ATOP AN EAST-SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DOWNSTAIRS GENERATING THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD SETTING
RAINFALL...WHILE IT/S BECOME APPARENT THAT OUR RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...UPPER DIFLUENCE AND STRONG PVA WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL
WARM FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE COMBINE WITH A ROBUST LOW LEVEL JET TO
PRODUCE 100 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA.
IF THE EXTREME RAINFALL IS NOT ENOUGH...THERE IS ALSO THE LOW END
RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO
SWING ONSHORE. WHILE THE WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL RESTRICT SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY...THERE IS MODEST 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES AS
HIGH AS 200 M2/SEC2. FOR NOW THE BEST RISK OF ANY LOW-TOPPED
TORNADOES LOOKS TO BE EAST OF I-95...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SC. FOR ALL SECTIONS GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WE WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR INLAND THE COASTAL WARM
FRONT CAN PENETRATE...WITH A LARGE EAST-WEST GRADIENT TO OCCUR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE ROBUST MID/UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN GA SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE NEARBY ATLANTIC MONDAY.
THE WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STUCK UNDERNEATH WILL BE LOCATED
OVER OR NEAR SUNDAY BEFORE IT TOO STARTS TO SLIP INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON MONDAY. THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH/EAST
DURING SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
RAINS. THEN ON MONDAY THE INLAND WEDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND THE
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
SURFACE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS TO PIVOT BACK IN
FROM THE NW. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE CATEGORICAL POPS FAR NORTH
SUNDAY...COVERAGE ELSEWHERE WILL DECREASE INTO THE CHANCE-LIKELY
RANGE...THEN TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT...BACK
UP TO THE CHANCE RANGE ALL SECTIONS MONDAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE TOO
FAR FROM NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY FILL AND LIFTS OUT TO THE EAST/NE
BY MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OR SHORT WAVE RIDGING
ALOFT THEREAFTER. AN INLAND WEDGE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MOISTURE HAS
BEEN SCOURED OUT BY THEN TO ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH NO
EXTREMES OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH A VERY DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP SPELL PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL DURING THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE. THE MAIN PROBLEMS WILL BE TIMING THE VARIOUS PERIODS OF LOW
VSBYS IN HEAVY RAINS. GIVEN 00Z MODELS AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL
WE SHOW A TEMPO FOR HEAVIER RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
NEARS. PREVAILING HEAVY RAINS ON SAT. OTHER ISSUES MAY INCLUDE TSTMS
AT SOME POINT TODAY. WIND SHEAR BECOMES IMPRESSIVE AND CANNOT RULE
OUT GUSTY CONVECTIVE WINDS IF WE WARM SUFFICIENTLY. IFR CIGS ARE
MOST LIKELY BUT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE.
KSAV...IFR CIGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...CHANCES FOR LIFR CIGS BUT
INCREASING CHANCES THAT SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
KEEP VSBYS FROM GOING BELOW IFR. TODAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS AND THE TERMINAL CLOSE
TO THE EDGE OF EXPECTED RAIN SHIELD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT TIMES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND EVEN THE RISK OF ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AS MIXING SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COASTAL
FRONT MOVES INLAND. ALSO INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN RESPONSE TO ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER
ENTRANCE...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE
MARINE AREA SWINGS ONSHORE. STRONG LOW LEVEL JETTING OVER THE SC
WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR NE/EAST WINDS TO PEAK AS HIGH AS 20-30 KT OVER
THE OPEN ATLANTIC...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH THE FLOW WILL BE OFFSHORE
WITH SPEEDS CAPPED AT OR BELOW 15 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD MOST FAVORABLY
WITH THE ONSHORE FETCH TO AS MUCH AS 7-11 FT ON THE SC WATERS AND
RANGING FROM 5-7 FT ACROSS THE 0-20 NM GA WATERS BU UP TO 8-11 FT
FURTHER OUT. THESE ELEVATED SEAS ARE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY SEVERAL
PRIOR DAYS OF ONSHORE WINDS...BUT ALSO NOW DUE TO SWELLS ORIGINATING
FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
CONTINUATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR OUR ATLANTIC ZONES.
WE CONSIDERED RAISING AN ADVISORY FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...BUT
DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT WE
HAVE HELD OFF AT THIS TIME AS WE CAPPED WINDS AT 15-20 KT. THERE IS
ALSO A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEARBY WARM FRONT
WITH MODEST SPIN IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIRAL INLAND OVER THE
CWFA...ALLOWING FOR THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY AS WINDS
DROP OFF TO 15 KT OR LESS ALL WATERS. BUT SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO
COME DOWN SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES EASTWARD...OUT TO
SEA...ALLOWING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND
WINDS TO EASE. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE DUE TO REMNANT SWELL
ENERGY...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM OUT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WITHIN 20 NM WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH
TUESDAY. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR A POTENTIAL FOR A RECORD RAINFALL EVENT
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AND FOR
THE GEORGIA COUNTIES ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA. MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME
DEVIATION IN THE PLACEMENT OF EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL BECOME ALIGNED ACROSS THE CWFA. BUT FOR THE LATEST FORECAST WE
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE QPF AS DEPICTED BY WPC...BLENDED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND UTILIZING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM OUR
OFFICE. THIS LOOKS TO BE AHEAD OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE CHARLESTON METRO TO NOT FAR FROM THE
BEAUFORT AREA...THEN INLAND TO MONCKS CORNER...WALTERBORO AND PARTS
OF ALLENDALE AND HAMPTON COUNTIES. OUR LATEST STORM TOTAL QPF SHOWS
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF 8-12 INCHES IN SC...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL OCCUR.
FARTHER SOUTH...THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL WITH
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN INCH ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER TO 3-6
INCHES NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER. AGAIN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE AND IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
MAIN AXIS SETTING UP NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
DESPITE THIS FORECAST...KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION OF
WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS SETS UP COULD RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT QPF.
COMPLICATING THE FLOODING SCENARIO IS THE CONTINUATION OF THE
ELEVATED VERY HIGH TIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURS ALONG THE COAST NEAR HIGH TIDE...IT WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE
FLOODING AND RESULT IN A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. THE LATEST SURGE GUIDANCE IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR SHOWS
TIDES REACHING OVER 8 FT WITH HIGH TIDE EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...A VERY
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD EVENT WOULD ENSUE. WE CAN NOT STRESS ENOUGH
THAT ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THIS SCENARIO.
FINALLY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIVER FLOODING OVER
THE COMING DAYS ONCE THE CORE OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE ENDED. THE
LATEST SET OF METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS
/MMERF/...SHOW A NUMBER OF RIVERS GOING INTO FLOOD OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR TIDAL BERKELEY...
CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TIDES SURPASSING
8 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
RIP CURRENTS...A HIGH RISK FOR LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL
REMAIN AT ALL BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE ELEVATED
SURF...FURTHER COMPLICATED BY MODERATE TO STRONG ON SHORE WINDS OVER
THE SC BEACHES.
HIGH SURF...SEAS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND AND A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WHERE THE STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR. LATEST
LOCAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 4 TO 5 FT BREAKERS IMPACTING AT LEAST
CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. SHOULD THIS COME TO
FRUITION THEN A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WOULD BE REQUIRED. WE HAVE HELD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORY AT THIS TIME GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS
TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WARM FRONT.
AREAS OF BEACH EROSION WILL ALSO OCCUR DUE TO THE WAVE ACTION AND
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
TOP 5 RECORD 3-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL
NORTH CHARLESTON /CHS/...
11.95 INCHES....................6/9/1973-6/11/1973
11.62 INCHES...................6/10/1973-6/12/1973
11.40 INCHES...................9/19/1998-9/21/1998
10.64 INCHES.....................9/4/1987-9/6/1987
10.52 INCHES...................9/21/1998-9/23/1998
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON /CXM/...
12.39 INCHES....................6/9/1973-6/11/1973
11.92 INCHES...................6/10/1973-6/12/1973
11.73 INCHES.....................9/5/1933-9/7/1933
11.72 INCHES.....................9/4/1933-9/6/1933
11.31 INCHES.....................9/4/1987-9/6/1987
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-
139-141.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GAZ087-088-101-
118-119.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>051.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ049-050-052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
&&
$$
ST/RVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
908 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
The 00z ILX sounding shows relatively high moisture content below
700 mb across central IL. The clearing that has developed across
the southeast half of our forecast area will likely see some low
clouds redevelop after midnight. The HRRR and RAP models show
clouds surging and developing from NE to SW across our eastern
counties. Updated the sky grids to try to project the expected
trends overnight. Cloud cover will play a role in low temps, with
a few areas in eastern IL that remain clear possibly cooling
below forecast lows. Will reduce lows only a degree or so to
account for that concern.
The remainder of the forecast looks reasonable. Updated info will
be available shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
Upper low storm system over the southeastern this afternoon still
driving the moisture into the Midwest. Although the low and mid
level clouds persisted through the overnight, a wide swath of drying
spread through Ohio and Indiana and is slowly eroding the eastern
side of the cloud shield. Tonight`s forecast centers on how far
those clouds can erode before sunset and llvl moisture gets trapped
below the inversion. Clear areas to the east may end up seeing more
in the way of patchy fog and cooler temps, but a lot will hinge on
the xover temps and how far back to the E/SE the stratus redevelops
tonight. Have trended the forecast to the HRRR which has been
handling the erosion of the clouds quite well.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
Mostly clouds skies will still be lingering over most of central and
parts of eastern IL tomorrow, as the upper level low pressure area
in southeast US finally shifts out to sea. This will allow high
pressure ridge to build into the area for the first half of the
week. Winds will remain northeast but begin to decrease in speed
tomorrow and Tuesday, and then become more light and variable for
Wednesday. Dry weather is expected through the short-term period,
and with, hopefully, more sunshine than today, temps should quickly
warm into the 70s for tomorrow through Wednesday.
The next major weather system to bring pcpn to the area will be
later in the week, Thursday through Friday afternoon. The GFS and
ECMWF have come into better alignment with the timing of the front,
and it should move through the area Thursday night. So am expecting
light pcpn Thur morning in the west/northwest, with it then
spreading east during the day, and then continuing across the CWA
Thursday evening. Pcpn should begin ending from west to east late
Thursday night and then continue through Friday morning. Temps will
be above normal for Thursday, but once the front and pcpn move
through, temps will fall back into the 60s across most of the area.
This, however, will temporary as 70s should return for the end of
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
The east to west clearing of MVFR clouds has come to a halt, and
already started slowly building back toward the east from BMI to
SPI. High res models have been consistently indicating an
expansion farther east across our northeastern counties, mainly N
of a line from Shelbyville to Paris. Have kept that trend in the
CMI and DEC TAFs, where skies have remained clear for the past
several hours. The NAM holds onto MVFR clouds through the day
tomorrow, while the GFS shows cloud heights lifting to VFR. Will
trend upward closer to GFS trends for now.
Some light MVFR fog will also be possible later tonight, along with
isolated IFR fog. Will not tempo in any IFR fog yet, but will
monitor ground level trends.
Winds will remain N-NE overnight, and diminish to 6-8kt after
sunset.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
710 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
Upper low storm system over the southeastern this afternoon still
driving the moisture into the Midwest. Although the low and mid
level clouds persisted through the overnight, a wide swath of drying
spread through Ohio and Indiana and is slowly eroding the eastern
side of the cloud shield. Tonight`s forecast centers on how far
those clouds can erode before sunset and llvl moisture gets trapped
below the inversion. Clear areas to the east may end up seeing more
in the way of patchy fog and cooler temps, but a lot will hinge on
the xover temps and how far back to the E/SE the stratus redevelops
tonight. Have trended the forecast to the HRRR which has been
handling the erosion of the clouds quite well.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
Mostly clouds skies will still be lingering over most of central and
parts of eastern IL tomorrow, as the upper level low pressure area
in southeast US finally shifts out to sea. This will allow high
pressure ridge to build into the area for the first half of the
week. Winds will remain northeast but begin to decrease in speed
tomorrow and Tuesday, and then become more light and variable for
Wednesday. Dry weather is expected through the short-term period,
and with, hopefully, more sunshine than today, temps should quickly
warm into the 70s for tomorrow through Wednesday.
The next major weather system to bring pcpn to the area will be
later in the week, Thursday through Friday afternoon. The GFS and
ECMWF have come into better alignment with the timing of the front,
and it should move through the area Thursday night. So am expecting
light pcpn Thur morning in the west/northwest, with it then
spreading east during the day, and then continuing across the CWA
Thursday evening. Pcpn should begin ending from west to east late
Thursday night and then continue through Friday morning. Temps will
be above normal for Thursday, but once the front and pcpn move
through, temps will fall back into the 60s across most of the area.
This, however, will temporary as 70s should return for the end of
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
The east to west clearing of MVFR clouds has come to a halt, and
already started slowly building back toward the east from BMI to
SPI. High res models have been consistently indicating an
expansion farther east across our northeastern counties, mainly N
of a line from Shelbyville to Paris. Have kept that trend in the
CMI and DEC TAFs, where skies have remained clear for the past
several hours. The NAM holds onto MVFR clouds through the day
tomorrow, while the GFS shows cloud heights lifting to VFR. Will
trend upward closer to GFS trends for now.
Some light MVFR fog will also be possible later tonight, along with
isolated IFR fog. Will not tempo in any IFR fog yet, but will
monitor ground level trends.
Winds will remain N-NE overnight, and diminish to 6-8kt after
sunset.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
643 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS.
STRATUS ADVANCED WEST TO EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT HAS RETREATED BACK EASTWARD SOMEWHAT BY
AFTERNOON...SEEMING TO STOP WHEN IT REACHED DEEPER CLOUD SHIELD. WRF
ARW...RAP AND HRRR HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON CLOUD TRENDS LAST
NIGHT...AND STILL APPEAR TO THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE FOLLOWED
INTO TONIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND THEN BEGIN
MOVING BACK NORTH AND WEST IN WEAK 0-1KM FLOW AS IT SHIFTS FROM NE
TO SE BY LATER THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD REACH ALL BUT FAR NW
SECTIONS TOWARD SUNRISE AND THEN EXPECT STRATUS TO STALL BY THAT
TIME WITH 0-1KM MEAN WIND DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.
TEMPS WILL FALL LITTLE UNDER CURRENT THICKER CLOUD COVER SO HAVE
MINS LESS THAN FIVE DEGREES FROM CURRENT OBS THERE. FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST DIURNAL RANGE MAY BE GREATER WITH A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING DURING THE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THESE AREAS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DURATION OF CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AND EXTENDED WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AS IOWA REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...SUFFICIENT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED TODAY TO
KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS STATE...AND MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
WARMING...AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS THAN GOING. HOWEVER...WITH 850MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO WARM
BY MID WEEK...WILL SEE WARMING TREND TO TEMPS...AND IF CLOUDS
CLEAR WITH MIXING MAY BE TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR WARMEST GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL SIMILARLY BE AFFECTED BY CLOUDS...MAY BE TOO WARM GIVEN
AMOUNT OF COOLING THE PAST NIGHTS...THOUGH HAVE FAVORED CONTINUED
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS.
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME MID WEEK AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS SW US BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AS WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WITH SYSTEM...THOUGH ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BEST CHANCES COMING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTH. SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH QUICKLY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AGAIN BEHIND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST WITH HIGH
FRIDAY...THOUGH ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WAA WILL RETURN BEHIND
RETREATING HIGH AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN FOR WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...05/00Z
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO POSE A FORECAST CHALLENGE...AS
THEY HAVE ERODED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA. AS CLOUD LAYER
STEERING FLOW VEERS AROUND TONIGHT THEN GOES CALM...AND GIVEN LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THIS TIME AND THE TRENDS OBSERVED LAST
NIGHT...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE CLOUD DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN
EXPAND/ADVANCE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER DARK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY LIGHT BR AT MOST OR ALL
OF THE TERMINALS BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND LASTING WELL INTO OR
THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE TAKEN BEST ATTEMPT AT TIMING THE ONSET OF LOW
CIGS...BUT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
218 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
A SLUG OF RAIN IS MOVING UP OUT OF SE LOWER SO HAVE RAISED THE
POPS FOR THE FASTER TIMING, BASED ON THE HRRR AND RUC13.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS IN E UPPER AS THE GUSTS WERE
AROUND 25 MPH. ALSO, HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THE RAIN OUT OF THE
REGION UNTIL SOMETIME AROUND 00Z, AS THE SHORT TERM MODELS (HRRR
AND ARW-NMM) WOULD PURPORT. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE
, AND IN A PREVIEW FOR TONIGHT, NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
EITHER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 MB WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT OR BELOW 50% IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE US. THE
CLOUD COVER THAT WE HAVE HAD SINCE OVERNIGHT, HAS BEEN SLOWLY
INCREASING AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST HAS MADE BETTER
STRIDES ABOVE 500 MB. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES
TO BE STEADY THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
STRONG COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG RIDGING AND DRY AIR EXTENDING THRU
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STEADILY INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE NE EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH MID ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO LWR MICHIGAN. ONCE AGAIN...A BKN DECK OF LOW VFR LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCU IS STREAMING INTO PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN OFF OF LAKE
HURON. THE REST OF OUR CWA REMAINS FREE OF LOW CLOUDS. STILL EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST
BEFORE SUNRISE...AND WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE FROST ADVISORY THRU
12Z. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AFTER SUNRISE WILL AGAIN MIX OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A SCT CU DECK. HOWEVER...INCREASING AND THICKENING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS
OUR CWA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AGAIN TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO THE 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...AND WILL AGAIN STRENGTHEN TO
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH AS DIURNAL MIXING
BRINGS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL FINALLY ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SE CWA TONIGHT AS THE
NE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SHIELD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LIFT INTO LWR
MICHIGAN. BOTH THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN FOR THE SE HALF OF OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. HAVE
EXPANDED CHANCE POPS A BIT FURTHER NW...BASICALLY FOR AREAS SE OF A
LINE FROM ROGERS CITY TO GRAYLING TO NEAR CADILLAC. THIS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THERE HAS BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN AS WELL. THE NW HALF OF OUR
CWA SHOULD STAY DRY BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT. THICKER
AND LOWER CLOUDS COMBINED WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL LEND TO
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND NO FROST DEVELOPMENT. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP
MAINLY INTO THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ALL REAL FOCUS CENTERED ON
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS RAINFALL EVENT UNFOLDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. INFLUENCES OF DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW...MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE JOAQUIN/THE ATLANTIC...AND EVEN SOME TROPICAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION ARE ALL COMING TOGETHER TO POTENTIALLY YIELD A
HISTORIC RAINFALL EVENT FOR PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS. SO...WHAT DOES
THIS ALL HAVE TO DO WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER? WELL...AT LEAST
A BIT OF THIS EASTERN MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE BACK
WEST...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH IT AND EVEN THE
THREAT FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING VERY LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DETAILS: STILL A RATHER UNUSUAL LOOKING SET-UP HEADING INTO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS THAT EASTERN MOISTURE PLUME BACKS WEST IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DOING THE SAME AND BUILDING NORTHEAST
CONUS RIDGING. INITIAL TIGHTLY FOCUSED H8-H7 THETA-E AXIS WILL
GRADUAL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT PUSHES WEST INTO OUR AREA...WITH WHAT
IS INITIALLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALSO DIMINISHING IN THE
PROCESS. UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WEAKENS...AND SIMPLY NOT A WHOLE LOT
(IF ANY) MID LEVEL SUPPORT AS BEST WAVE REMAINS FAR DETACHED FROM
ADVANCING MOISTURE PLUME. STILL...GUIDANCE SHOWS RATHER SATURATED
SUB H6 TO NEAR SURFACE LAYER SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH AT NO
POINT DOES MOISTURE REACH THE -10C ISOTHERM. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DISH OUT SOME LIGHT QPF...AND GIVEN SATURATED DEPTH...GOTTA BELIEVE
VERY (VERY) LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. BY NO MEANS ARE WE
EXPECTING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD TO BE WET...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF MUCH OF THE AREA EXPERIENCED LITTLE PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO SOUTH OF THE BIG
BRIDGE...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE/CLEAR SKIES AS ONE
HEADS NORTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. NEAR SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SAID CLOUD COVER KEEPING
OVERNIGHT READINGS A TOUCH ELEVATED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
CURRENT BLOCKY PATTERN EXPECTED
TO BREAK DOWN HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...YIELDING A MORE ZONAL AND
AGGRESSIVE NORTHERN CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA FLOW REGIME IN THE
PROCESS. STILL SUGGESTIONS THAT A WEAK (AND WEAKENING) COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. FORCING AND MOISTURE SIMPLY NOT THERE...AND REALLY LIKE
PREVIOUS FORECASTERS DECISION TO REMOVE ALL RAIN MENTION. GROWING
SUPPORT THAT A MORE ROBUST AND MOISTURE RICH SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
LAKES IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING IS
FAR FROM BEING DETERMINED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD EXPECTED
TO BE WELL WITHIN THE REALM OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE RAIN AND WHERE IT IS GOING.
MODELS HAVEN`T HANDLED THE LOWER VFR HEIGHTS, AND IT LOOKS LIKE
MVFR CATEGORY CIGS MAY BE ON US SOONER THAN THE 06Z THAT I HAVE IN
THE TAFS, BUT THEN AGAIN MAYBE NOT, AS DOWNSTATE BOS ARE STILL IN
VFR. SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF WE GET LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. HOWEVER, THE RAIN LOOKS
LIGHT, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MEET SCA CRITERIA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING AS GUSTY NE WINDS WRAP AROUND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NORTH OF MICHIGAN. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN AND
LOWER THRU TONIGHT FOR ALL NEARSHORE AREAS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR OUR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREAS AS DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW PUSHES INTO LWR MICHIGAN.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
154 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY AND THE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
SOME STEADIER RAIN IS NOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA REQUIRES ANOTHER INCREASE IN FORECAST POPS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
WILL BE HELD INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BY THE CLOUDS AND STEADIER RAIN AND TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WE HAVE A RATHER UNUSUAL WEATHER SITUATION TODAY ACTUALLY.
THERE IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WELL SO OUR SOUTH...BUT IS BEING CHANNELED TOWARD US NONE THE
LESS DUE TO THE LARGE DEPARTING HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS CAN THAT
MOISTURE REALLY MAKE IT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS AND FOR THAT MATTER THE GFS
TOO SHOW MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THE 1000/850 LAYER AIMED ATOUR
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS FALL TO NEAR ZERO MB NEAR 700 MB (INSENTROPIC LIFT EVENT)
AT THE SAME TIME. WHERE THAT IS HAPPENING NOW IT IS RAINING. SO I
HAVE 40 TO 60 PCT POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS ALL
LIFTS NORTH AND DISSIPATES SUNDAY. CLEARING SHOULD FOLLOW MONDAY
AND IT WILL BE WARMER.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG TODAY BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH MINS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWESTWARD FROM OHIO WILL CAUSE
INCREASING IMPACTS TO THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
ALREADY MVFR CEILINGS ARE SHOWING UP AT KBTL AND KJXN AS OF 1730Z.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
TO IFR AND LOWER FOR ALL SITES. THESE LOW CONDITIONS WILL SHOW UP
FIRST AT KJXN...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST...REACHING KMKG LATE
TONIGHT.
ANY IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. THUS THE GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THEN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME TO OUR HEADLINES. THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LARGE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
CURRENT STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS SW LOWER MI ARE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
141 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY BUT THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR
MONDAY AND THE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. LOW LEVEL DRY
WEDGE IS STILL SEEN ON LAPS SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT
SFC OBS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI SHOW THAT THE
30 TO 35 DBZ ECHOES WILL BE OVERCOMING THAT.
MAX TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S STILL LOOK GOOD. THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAXES WILL
BE LOWER THERE...AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WE HAVE A RATHER UNUSUAL WEATHER SITUATION TODAY ACTUALLY.
THERE IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WELL SO OUR SOUTH...BUT IS BEING CHANNELED TOWARD US NONE THE
LESS DUE TO THE LARGE DEPARTING HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS CAN THAT
MOISTURE REALLY MAKE IT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS AND FOR THAT MATTER THE GFS
TOO SHOW MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THE 1000/850 LAYER AIMED ATOUR
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS FALL TO NEAR ZERO MB NEAR 700 MB (INSENTROPIC LIFT EVENT)
AT THE SAME TIME. WHERE THAT IS HAPPENING NOW IT IS RAINING. SO I
HAVE 40 TO 60 PCT POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS ALL
LIFTS NORTH AND DISSIPATES SUNDAY. CLEARING SHOULD FOLLOW MONDAY
AND IT WILL BE WARMER.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG TODAY BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH MINS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWESTWARD FROM OHIO WILL CAUSE
INCREASING IMPACTS TO THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
ALREADY MVFR CEILINGS ARE SHOWING UP AT KBTL AND KJXN AS OF 1730Z.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
TO IFR AND LOWER FOR ALL SITES. THESE LOW CONDITIONS WILL SHOW UP
FIRST AT KJXN...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST...REACHING KMKG LATE
TONIGHT.
ANY IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. THUS THE GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THEN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME TO OUR HEADLINES. THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LARGE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
CURRENT STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS SW LOWER MI ARE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1104 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY BUT THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR
MONDAY AND THE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. LOW LEVEL DRY
WEDGE IS STILL SEEN ON LAPS SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT
SFC OBS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI SHOW THAT THE
30 TO 35 DBZ ECHOES WILL BE OVERCOMING THAT.
MAX TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S STILL LOOK GOOD. THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAXES WILL
BE LOWER THERE...AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WE HAVE A RATHER UNUSUAL WEATHER SITUATION TODAY ACTUALLY.
THERE IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WELL SO OUR SOUTH...BUT IS BEING CHANNELED TOWARD US NONE THE
LESS DUE TO THE LARGE DEPARTING HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS CAN THAT
MOISTURE REALLY MAKE IT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS AND FOR THAT MATTER THE GFS
TOO SHOW MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THE 1000/850 LAYER AIMED ATOUR
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS FALL TO NEAR ZERO MB NEAR 700 MB (INSENTROPIC LIFT EVENT)
AT THE SAME TIME. WHERE THAT IS HAPPENING NOW IT IS RAINING. SO I
HAVE 40 TO 60 PCT POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS ALL
LIFTS NORTH AND DISSIPATES SUNDAY. CLEARING SHOULD FOLLOW MONDAY
AND IT WILL BE WARMER.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG TODAY BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH MINS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS TODAY WILL SEE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIME BUT CEILINGS WILL STAY ABOVE 3000 FT
MOST OF DAY. HOWEVER SUNSET APPROACHES THE MOISTURE FROM THE
SYSTEM TO OR SOUTH WILL BRING THE TREAT OF RAIN AND LOWER
CEILING. I WOULD EXPECT OVERNIGHT ALL SITES WILL SEE SOME RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME TO OUR HEADLINES. THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LARGE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
CURRENT STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS SW LOWER MI ARE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH EDGE OF THAT LARGE RAIN AREA TO
OUR SOUTHEAST WILL BRING SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TO MOST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. THE AREA NEAR
INTERSTATE 69 SHOULD SEE THE MOST RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...NO
MATTER WHAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WINDY TODAY BUT THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SKIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY AND THE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING
TREND MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WE HAVE A RATHER UNUSUAL WEATHER SITUATION TODAY ACTUALLY.
THERE IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WELL SO OUR SOUTH...BUT IS BEING CHANNELED TOWARD US NONE THE
LESS DUE TO THE LARGE DEPARTING HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS CAN THAT
MOISTURE REALLY MAKE IT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS AND FOR THAT MATTER THE GFS
TOO SHOW MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THE 1000/850 LAYER AIMEDAT
OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDENSATIONPRESSURE
DEFICITS FALL TO NEAR ZERO MB NEAR 700 MB (INSENTROPIC LIFT EVENT)
AT THE SAME TIME. WHERE THAT IS HAPPENING NOW IT IS RAINING. SO I
HAVE 40 TO 60 PCT POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS ALL
LIFTS NORTH AND DISSIPATES SUNDAY. CLEARING SHOULD FOLLOW MONDAY
AND IT WILL BE WARMER.
WINDS WILL CONITNUE TO BE STRONG TODAY BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH MINS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS TODAY WILL SEE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIME BUT CEILINGS WILL STAY ABOVE 3000 FT
MOST OF DAY. HOWEVER SUNSET APPROCHES THE MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM
TO OR SOUTH WILL BRING THE THEAT OF RAIN AND LOWER CEILING. I
WOULD EXPECT OVERNIGHT ALL SITES WILL SEE SOME RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME TO OUR HEADLINES. THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LARGE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
CURRENT STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS SW LOWER MI ARE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH EDGE OF THAT LARGE RAIN AREA TO
OUR SOUTHEAST WILL BRING SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TO MOST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. THE AREA NEAR
INTERSTATE 69 SHOULD SEE THE MOST RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...NO
MATTER WHAT PRECIIPTATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WINDY TODAY BUT THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SKIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY AND THE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING
TREND MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WE HAVE A RATHER UNSUSAL WEATHER SITUATION TODAY ACTUALLY.
THERE IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WELL SO OUR SOUTH...BUT IS BEING CHANNELED TOWARD US NONE THE
LESS DUE TO THE LARGE DEPARTING HIGH OVER SOUHTEAST CANADA BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN QUESITION IS CAN THAT
MOSITURE REALLY MAKE IT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS AND FOR THAT MATTER THE GFS
TOO SHOW MOSITURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THE 1000/850 LAYER AIMDED
AT OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDESNTATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL TO NEAR ZERO MB NEAR 700 MB (INSENTROPIC
LIFT EVENT) AT THE SAME TIME. WHERE THAT IS HAPPENING NOW IT IS
RAINING. SO I HAVE 40 TO 60 PCT POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS ALL LIFTS NORTH AND DISSIPATES SUNDAY. CLEARING
SHOULD FOLLOW MONDAY AND IT WILL BE WARMER.
WINDS WILL CONITNUE TO BE STRONG TODAY BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH MINS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AND STRENGTHEN TO GUST TO
AROUND 25 KTS FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO MVFR LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FROM SE TO NW AS LOW
CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE SE.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AT KAZO...
KLAN... KBTL AND KJXN AND PERHAPS AS FAR NW AS KGRR LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NW AS KMKG THROUGH
06Z SUN. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20-22 KTS
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME TO OUR HEADLINES. THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LARGE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
CURRENT STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS SW LOWER MI ARE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
346 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. A COOL AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS.
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES...MAINLY THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
FIFTIES TODAY.
THERE SHOULD BE MORE HIGH CLOUD THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND MAY OFFSET SOME OF THE COOLING EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. WE DO NOT EXPECT THICK CLOUDS AND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
SEE SOME FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WE MAY NEED
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER TODAY BEFORE
ISSUING THOSE.
THE FLOW FROM 850MB-700MB WILL TRANSITION FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
HIGH CLOUDS THAN WE WILL SEE TODAY. HIGHS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE FIFTIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
MODEL DIFFERENCES REVEAL THEMSELVES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM. NONE OF THE MODELS CAN AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY OR THE
DEPTH OF AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. THE
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND HAS
BEEN IGNORED. A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS RESULTS IN NO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON MONDAY. A
FLATTER UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING...BUT AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL
CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE A SMALL POP IN THE NW CORNER OF
KOOCHICHING COUNTY IN THE MORNING AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A RESULT OF BLENDING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. MONDAY
NIGHT FINDS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH THE
CONTINUED FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NW WITH THE SFC HIGH PREVAILING. THIS CONTINUES ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE DAKOTAS. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF/GEM KEEP THE MID LEVEL/SFC RIDGING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS RAIN INTO THE AREA ALONG A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NWD INTO NORTHERN MN BY 00Z THURSDAY. USING A BLEND
GIVES SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF/GFS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SOME HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS.
THURSDAY FINDS THE SFC LOW MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN UPPER
TROF FOLLOWING BEHIND. HAVE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE SFC LOW TRENDING
DOWNWARD BEHIND THE TROF. LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN CASE THE
SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER AT MOVING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE. KEPT IN A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KDLH...AND KHIB UNTIL 09Z TO 13Z. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPING...AS SEEN IN THE LAST FEW RAP RUNS AND LATEST
NAM. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KDLH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING. LEFT IN A MENTION OF SOME CLOUD
COVER A KDLH DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...COMBINED WITH LIFT
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARDS FROM SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 55 39 53 42 / 0 0 0 10
INL 59 33 57 40 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 59 38 58 43 / 0 0 0 10
HYR 59 33 57 39 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 58 34 56 40 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
108 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
AT 330 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
THE ONLY CLOUD COVER WAS ALONG A PORTION OF THE NORTH SHORE AND
ALSO IN A LOCALIZED AREA OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY EAST WINDS
CONTINUED TO BRING A VERY DRY AND SUNNY DAY TO MOST OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 PM WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NEAR 60 AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS PERSISTED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 5 FOOT WAVES REPORTED AT
THE FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR UMD BUOY.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FROST.
WHILE WE HAVE SEEN FROST OR A FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES THROUGH OCTOBER
7TH OF THIS YEAR. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER
THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT...MOST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST. THE
EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN
PICK BACK UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY. STILL LOOKING FOR MORE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURE
WISE IT SHOULD BE REMARKABLY CLOSE TO WHAT IT WAS TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND TO TEMPERATURES. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOWS A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET
UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING ON MONDAY
THOUGH...WITH AN 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES AND EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER NEAR US ON
MONDAY. THIS BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM OVER EVEN THE
WEEKEND...AND BY MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND PUSHES
A WARM FRONT AND PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND THE DIFFERENCES IS A WET AND COOL
SOLUTION VS A DRY AND WARMER ONE FOR US. IN GENERAL WOULD FAVOR THE
ECMWF...BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT THAT GREAT AND IT IS DAY 6...SO
HAVE LEFT A GENERIC BLEND AS IT IS WITH CHANCE POPS AND ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE. KEPT IN A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KDLH...AND KHIB UNTIL 09Z TO 13Z. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPING...AS SEEN IN THE LAST FEW RAP RUNS AND LATEST
NAM. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KDLH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING. LEFT IN A MENTION OF SOME CLOUD
COVER A KDLH DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...COMBINED WITH LIFT
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARDS FROM SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 39 53 40 58 / 0 0 0 0
INL 33 57 39 58 / 0 0 10 20
BRD 38 58 42 61 / 0 0 10 0
HYR 33 57 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 35 57 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
832 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT IN SOUTHEASTERN MT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE
THIS EVENING AS FAR WEST AS BILLINGS. RADAR HAS SHOWN WEAK ECHOES
DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
MILES CITY DID REPORT A LIGHT SHOWER AS THE TAIL END OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. WE
ARE CONCERNED ABOUT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY LIKE RECENT HRRR MODEL
RUNS HAVE SHOWN...BUT ITS DEVELOPMENT WOULD REQUIRE MORE CLEARING
THAN CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THUS...NO FOG HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
NORTHERN BRANCH OF A AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT. QUITE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT FORCING WAS WEAK...SO NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION. 700MB
FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AND THIS WILL ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES...WHICH SHOULD DECREASE SOME OF THE
CLOUDS. ALREADY SEE SIGNS OF THAT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER WESTERN
MONTANA AND NORTHEAST IDAHO. PROCESS WILL BE SLOW. AREAS THAT
RECEIVED PRECIPITATION COULD BE PRONE TO FOG FORMATION IF CLOUDS
CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. OPTED TO NOT PUT IT
IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME AS THIS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON TIMING OF
CLOUDS CLEARING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. IF CLOUDS HOLD ON
LONGER THAN EXPECT...FORECAST LOWS WOULD BE TOO COLD IN SPOTS.
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE POKES UP INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA MONDAY
NIGHT AND FLATTENS OUT TUESDAY. THIS PROCESS...ALONG WITH DRIER
AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
UP. MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH A CHILLY
START...BUT EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY. TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
IN GENERAL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY A FEW
MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BUT ITS AXIS WILL BE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A SHOWER ACROSS OUR WESTERN LOCATIONS AND AREA MOUNTAINS ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN THE PAST FEW
DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER MONTANA RESULTING IN RISING
HEIGHTS...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. BY SUNDAY...BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DROP A DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT INTO MONTANA
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWER
70S AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED WITH POSSIBLY MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
BY NEXT WEEKEND. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EXCEPT NEAR KLVM...WHERE A SLOW
LIFTING OF CIGS IS OCCURRING ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STRATUS DECK
YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS. FURTHER EAST IN KBIL KSHR AND KMLS HIGHER
LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS ARE ALLOWING THE STRATUS DECK TO PERSIST.
ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN KBIL AND TERMINALS
EASTWARD. HOWEVER...NOT ENTIRELY SURE LOW LEVELS WILL COOL ENOUGH
GIVEN THE STUBBORN STRATUS DECK SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. BY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN
FROM WEST TO EAST AND BY 18Z ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR. DOBBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/062 043/070 048/074 047/071 049/077 051/077 050/080
11/B 10/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 01/U 01/U
LVM 033/065 041/073 044/071 044/069 045/075 046/076 045/077
11/U 10/U 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/U 11/U
HDN 036/064 042/073 045/076 045/072 045/078 047/078 046/082
20/B 10/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 01/U 01/U
MLS 038/063 043/072 049/075 046/071 047/078 050/076 048/080
20/B 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/U 01/U
4BQ 040/064 044/072 049/075 046/070 047/077 048/077 048/081
21/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 01/U 00/U
BHK 039/061 043/068 047/073 045/067 045/074 048/073 047/077
21/B 00/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/U 00/U
SHR 035/066 041/070 043/075 043/071 042/078 045/078 044/083
11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/U 10/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
821 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN IS SCHEDULED
TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE...IS ALREADY REPORTED IN THE KSRR...KCQC AREAS AND VISIBLE
ON NMDOT CAMERA IN VAUGHN. HRRR...ETC...INDICATE PRECIPITATION TO
FAVOR WRN NM AS WELL AS ERN NM MAINLY ALONG AND E OF THE
PECOS...SO THINKING RAIN MAY NOT SERVE TO BREAK UP ANY DENSE FOG
THAT ALREADY EXISTS. THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING EXISTING
CONDITIONS TO VARY...OR IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT. DECIDED
TO GO AHEAD WITH A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR GENERALLY THE EAST SLOPES
CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS MAJOR TRAVEL ROUTES IMPACTED INCLUDING I-40
AND I-25. NPW AS WELL AS UPDATED ZFP ALREADY TRANSMITTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...604 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UNSETTLED AND DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...LEAVING A CHALLENGING
AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDESPREAD SWATHS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN OF NEW MEXICO. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND
VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE NEAR
KRTN...KLVS...KCQC...KSRR. AREAS FARTHER EAST IN THE LOWER
ELEVATION PLAINS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR/LIFT CONDITIONS WITH SOME BATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN PERIODICALLY MIXING IN. WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THE LOWER CEILINGS AND FOG WILL NOT BE AS PERSISTENT OR AS
LOW...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL KEEP
CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY UNSETTLED WITH MVFR CEILINGS. CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO FOR MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE FOCUS WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE. NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 GENERALLY MORE LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL. A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO START FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THICKER CLOUD SHIELDS THAN ANTICIPATED WOULD CAUSE HIGH/LOW TEMPS
TO BE COOLER/WARMER THAN FORECASTED AND WILL ALSO LIMIT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS VERSUS SHOWERS. BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS...FORECAST PACKAGE REFLECTS ON
HOW THAT WILL PLAY OUT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY WOUND UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR SANTA BARBARA CALIFORNIA CREATING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE CLOUD DECK HAS ALLOWED FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NM. HIGH RES MODELS LEND TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND GENERALLY
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH IT WILL BE LESS ROBUST.
LACK OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS MORE SHOWERY...WHICH WILL REDUCE RAINFALL
RATES AND LIMIT ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LIKELY
REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A QUARTER
MILE AT TIMES.
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND KEEP THAT
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE PULL OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. WHILE THE
MODELS PAINT SOME HEAVIER QPFS ACROSS THE WEST ALONG WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY DUE TO COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. NASA SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW
FAIRLY DRY GROUNDS ACROSS THE AREA THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WITHSTAND DECENT RAINS. REDUCED RAINFALL RATES DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL MAKE IT EVEN HARDER TO HAVE
FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS
DEALS WITH STORMS...THE EAST WILL GET A PAUSE ON RAINS AND WILL
BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVER SW NM
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION FIELD
EAST...COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE HAVING
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP MOST OF THE
STATE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE
THURSDAY THAT WILL DRAG SOME OF THE MOISTURE FIELD WITH
IT...THOUGH EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THANKS THE LOW
DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...HELPING PUSH MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STATE WHILE CREATING
SOME BREEZY WINDS.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL CUT OFF SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE STATE FRIDAY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER TOP OF THE LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. NOT MUCH IF ANY
RAIN ANTICIPATED BUT YOU CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
24
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTN. LATEST HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST WILL COME LATE
THIS AFTN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME AREAS IN NEED OF RAIN
SHOULD RECEIVE POTENTIALLY WETTING RAINS TONIGHT.
IF THE RAIN DOES NOT COME TONIGHT...BEST RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL
BE ACROSS WESTERN NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MORE WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY
AND A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
MORE WET WEATHER WILL COME ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO INCH
EASTWARD. WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WILL AGAIN BE FAVORED WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. BUT THEN... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS AZ AND INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF NM.
WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY REACH 1 OR 2 INCHES. A DUSTING OF SNOW
IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ABOVE 11KFT.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UP TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES
WILL BE EXCELLENT...WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES RARELY FALLING BELOW 40
PERCENT.
STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES PAST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
THE LOW WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION AND PERHAPS
RETROGRADE OVER OLD MEXICO. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT
AT THIS TIME...IT DOES LOOK LIKE A DRIER TREND SHOULD START THURSDAY
FOR AT LEAST THE WEST AND PERHAPS FOR MORE OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WITH IT LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD OR BETTER ELSEWHERE.
VENT RATES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL PLUMMET
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN MTNS THANKS TO WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD.
POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NM THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WELL.
34
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM...WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS. KCQC CONTINUES TO SEE LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG...AND MUCH OF
EASTERN NM CONTINUES TO SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS. THESE CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND IF NOTHING ELSE...WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. AREAS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
COULD SEE FOG REDEVELOP THIS EVE AS WELL. STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIMIT TS POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND
EVE. MEANWHILE...TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. A LINE OF STORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AZ/NM BORDER AND SHIFT
EASTWARD...POTENTIALLY MAKING INTO THE RGV AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
SHORT...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY.
34
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526>529-533-539-540.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UNSETTLED AND DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...LEAVING A CHALLENGING
AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDESPREAD SWATHS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN OF NEW MEXICO. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AND
VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE NEAR
KRTN...KLVS...KCQC...KSRR. AREAS FARTHER EAST IN THE LOWER
ELEVATION PLAINS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR/LIFT CONDITIONS WITH SOME BATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN PERIODICALLY MIXING IN. WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THE LOWER CEILINGS AND FOG WILL NOT BE AS PERSISTENT OR AS
LOW...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL KEEP
CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY UNSETTLED WITH MVFR CEILINGS. CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO FOR MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE FOCUS WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE. NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 GENERALLY MORE LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL. A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO START FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THICKER CLOUD SHIELDS THAN ANTICIPATED WOULD CAUSE HIGH/LOW TEMPS
TO BE COOLER/WARMER THAN FORECASTED AND WILL ALSO LIMIT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS VERSUS SHOWERS. BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS...FORECAST PACKAGE REFLECTS ON
HOW THAT WILL PLAY OUT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY WOUND UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR SANTA BARBARA CALIFORNIA CREATING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE CLOUD DECK HAS ALLOWED FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NM. HIGH RES MODELS LEND TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND GENERALLY
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH IT WILL BE LESS ROBUST.
LACK OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS MORE SHOWERY...WHICH WILL REDUCE RAINFALL
RATES AND LIMIT ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LIKELY
REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A QUARTER
MILE AT TIMES.
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND KEEP THAT
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE PULL OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. WHILE THE
MODELS PAINT SOME HEAVIER QPFS ACROSS THE WEST ALONG WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY DUE TO COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. NASA SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW
FAIRLY DRY GROUNDS ACROSS THE AREA THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WITHSTAND DECENT RAINS. REDUCED RAINFALL RATES DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL MAKE IT EVEN HARDER TO HAVE
FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS
DEALS WITH STORMS...THE EAST WILL GET A PAUSE ON RAINS AND WILL
BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVER SW NM
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION FIELD
EAST...COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE HAVING
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP MOST OF THE
STATE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE
THURSDAY THAT WILL DRAG SOME OF THE MOISTURE FIELD WITH
IT...THOUGH EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THANKS THE LOW
DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...HELPING PUSH MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STATE WHILE CREATING
SOME BREEZY WINDS.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL CUT OFF SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE STATE FRIDAY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER TOP OF THE LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. NOT MUCH IF ANY
RAIN ANTICIPATED BUT YOU CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
24
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTN. LATEST HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST WILL COME LATE
THIS AFTN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME AREAS IN NEED OF RAIN
SHOULD RECEIVE POTENTIALLY WETTING RAINS TONIGHT.
IF THE RAIN DOES NOT COME TONIGHT...BEST RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL
BE ACROSS WESTERN NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MORE WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY
AND A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
MORE WET WEATHER WILL COME ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO INCH
EASTWARD. WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WILL AGAIN BE FAVORED WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. BUT THEN... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS AZ AND INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF NM.
WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY REACH 1 OR 2 INCHES. A DUSTING OF SNOW
IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ABOVE 11KFT.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UP TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES
WILL BE EXCELLENT...WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES RARELY FALLING BELOW 40
PERCENT.
STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES PAST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
THE LOW WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION AND PERHAPS
RETROGRADE OVER OLD MEXICO. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT
AT THIS TIME...IT DOES LOOK LIKE A DRIER TREND SHOULD START THURSDAY
FOR AT LEAST THE WEST AND PERHAPS FOR MORE OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WITH IT LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD OR BETTER ELSEWHERE.
VENT RATES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL PLUMMET
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN MTNS THANKS TO WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD.
POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NM THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WELL.
34
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM...WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS. KCQC CONTINUES TO SEE LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG...AND MUCH OF
EASTERN NM CONTINUES TO SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS. THESE CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND IF NOTHING ELSE...WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. AREAS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
COULD SEE FOG REDEVELOP THIS EVE AS WELL. STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIMIT TS POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND
EVE. MEANWHILE...TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. A LINE OF STORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AZ/NM BORDER AND SHIFT
EASTWARD...POTENTIALLY MAKING INTO THE RGV AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
SHORT...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY.
34
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1228 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS UP AND TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
CHANGES MADE ACROSS CENTRAL NM. ZONES OUT SHORTLY. CHJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1159 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A HIGH IMPACT PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24HRS FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A 50-70KT UPPER
JET AXIS SLIDING NORTHEAST OVER NM IS INTERACTING WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL FORCE TSRA ACROSS THE
KABQ/KAEG AND KSAF AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
SLIDE EAST AND ENHANCE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND TSRA ALREADY IN PLACE
OVER THE PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST A LARGE AREA OF RA/TSRA THRU THE
ENTIRE NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS SOCKED IN AT IFR THRU AT LEAST 18Z.
A BREAK IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TODAY BEHIND THE CURRENT
AREA OF TSRA WILL FILL BACK IN WITH SHRA AFT 09Z AS EASTERLY
WINDS RETURN.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...321 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED AND MOIST WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM EAST TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY
TREND BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT
THEN TREND WESTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS PACIFIC
TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER TO THE STATE. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOUND
ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO PICK UP SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE ON THE GRIDS BUT THE OVERALL
STORY REMAINS THE SAME. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE COMBINATION OF LIFTING DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/JET AS WELL AS OROGRAPHICS AND INSTABILITY
WILL AID DEEP CONVECTION AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
WITH QPF THAN THE NAM THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE ALTHOUGH BUYING
MORE INTO THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP. DO
LIKE THE NAMS DEPICTION OF LINEAR SEMI PERMANENT CONVECTION BANDS AS
WE GET WELL INTO THE EVENT. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE
THE NORM THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUDGED TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN WARM ADVECTION PERIODS SUCH AS THE
NEAR TERM ALTHOUGH NUDGED THEM BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LONGER LIVED. EITHER WAY...TEMPS COOL FROM
EAST TO WEST AND LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFES PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE PEAK READINGS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
AND APPEAR TO BE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.
COMBINE THAT WITH A 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATION 500 MB LOW TO THE
WEST AND YOU GET SOME HEFTY MOISTURE ADVECTION AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
DYNAMICS. THE WEAKER DYNAMICS MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW IS A
BIT TOO FAR TO THE WEST BUT IF IT WERE TO NUDGE CLOSER THEN SUNDAY
SHOULD BE VERY ACTIVE AS WELL. RESIDUAL IMPACTS TODAY FROM THE
INITIAL PACIFIC LOW AND DEPARTING 80 KNOT JET. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING PRECIP ENHANCEMENT AS A RESULT BETWEEN ABQ TO
LAS VEGAS ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
THAT AND MOVES THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. MORE
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES...ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. PROBABLY NOT THE COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY HOWEVER. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE NE HIGHLANDS/EASTERN PLAINS. THE SAME
AREA THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY. THINK THE DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE A BETTER LOOK AT HOW THE DEEP CONVECTION EVOLVES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CAN ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
QUESTIONS OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THEY EXIT THE PACIFIC LOW. THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO IN QUESTION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GILA REGION WED AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS HAD IT SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE EAST AND A LITTLE MORE NORTH.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS WHEN THE DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH
THE ECMWF PLACING THE LOW SOUTH OF THE STATE WHILE THE GFS HAS IT
MORE EAST. SORT OF LIKE THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE GFS BASED
ON THE TIME OF YEAR ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARED TO HAVE CAPTURED
THE EAST COAST WX SCENARIO A LITTLE BETTER AS OF LATE. EITHER
WAY...CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
50
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
POOREST VENTILATION TODAY WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WHERE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...EXCELLENT MAX VENT RATES FORECAST BENEATH MODERATELY
STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MIXING PATTERN. MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD...BUT ITS
EASTWARD EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED AS AN INITIAL PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST WELL NORTH OF THE STATE...AND A
SECOND MUCH STRONGER WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. IN
RESPONSE...MID LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OR TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH TIME TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
OVERALL MOISTENING TREND FOR AREAS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIGGING WAVE OF ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN REGION TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA BY SUNDAY. LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
THIS DEEP LOW BOTTOMING OUT JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS NEVADA BY MONDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE MODEL WORLD
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW. GROWING CONFIDENCE THE LOW
WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING FLOW...AT LEAST
BRIEFLY...DURING THE MON-TUE PERIOD AND THIS WILL HAVE IMPORTANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE EARLY WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS AND NAM...FOR
EXAMPLE...SLOWLY LIFT THE LOW NORTHEAST BEGINNING LATER MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING THE LOW CENTER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER NM WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORCE THE LOW ON A MORE DECIDEDLY SOUTHEAST
TRACK...AND IS AMONG THE FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
EITHER WAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER AND ACTIVE/SHOWERY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT UNTIL THURSDAY DO THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A DRYING/WARMING TREND COMMENCING.
FAIR TO LOCALLY POOR VENTILATION WILL PREDOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. KJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1159 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A HIGH IMPACT PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24HRS FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A 50-70KT UPPER
JET AXIS SLIDING NORTHEAST OVER NM IS INTERACTING WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL FORCE TSRA ACROSS THE
KABQ/KAEG AND KSAF AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
SLIDE EAST AND ENHANCE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND TSRA ALREADY IN PLACE
OVER THE PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST A LARGE AREA OF RA/TSRA THRU THE
ENTIRE NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS SOCKED IN AT IFR THRU AT LEAST 18Z.
A BREAK IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TODAY BEHIND THE CURRENT
AREA OF TSRA WILL FILL BACK IN WITH SHRA AFT 09Z AS EASTERLY
WINDS RETURN.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...321 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED AND MOIST WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM EAST TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY
TREND BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT
THEN TREND WESTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS PACIFIC
TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER TO THE STATE. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOUND
ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO PICK UP SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE ON THE GRIDS BUT THE OVERALL
STORY REMAINS THE SAME. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE COMBINATION OF LIFTING DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/JET AS WELL AS OROGRAPHICS AND INSTABILITY
WILL AID DEEP CONVECTION AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
WITH QPF THAN THE NAM THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE ALTHOUGH BUYING
MORE INTO THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP. DO
LIKE THE NAMS DEPICTION OF LINEAR SEMI PERMANENT CONVECTION BANDS AS
WE GET WELL INTO THE EVENT. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE
THE NORM THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUDGED TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN WARM ADVECTION PERIODS SUCH AS THE
NEAR TERM ALTHOUGH NUDGED THEM BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LONGER LIVED. EITHER WAY...TEMPS COOL FROM
EAST TO WEST AND LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFES PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE PEAK READINGS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
AND APPEAR TO BE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.
COMBINE THAT WITH A 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATION 500 MB LOW TO THE
WEST AND YOU GET SOME HEFTY MOISTURE ADVECTION AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
DYNAMICS. THE WEAKER DYNAMICS MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW IS A
BIT TOO FAR TO THE WEST BUT IF IT WERE TO NUDGE CLOSER THEN SUNDAY
SHOULD BE VERY ACTIVE AS WELL. RESIDUAL IMPACTS TODAY FROM THE
INITIAL PACIFIC LOW AND DEPARTING 80 KNOT JET. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING PRECIP ENHANCEMENT AS A RESULT BETWEEN ABQ TO
LAS VEGAS ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
THAT AND MOVES THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. MORE
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES...ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. PROBABLY NOT THE COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY HOWEVER. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE NE HIGHLANDS/EASTERN PLAINS. THE SAME
AREA THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY. THINK THE DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE A BETTER LOOK AT HOW THE DEEP CONVECTION EVOLVES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CAN ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
QUESTIONS OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THEY EXIT THE PACIFIC LOW. THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO IN QUESTION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GILA REGION WED AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS HAD IT SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE EAST AND A LITTLE MORE NORTH.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS WHEN THE DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH
THE ECMWF PLACING THE LOW SOUTH OF THE STATE WHILE THE GFS HAS IT
MORE EAST. SORT OF LIKE THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE GFS BASED
ON THE TIME OF YEAR ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARED TO HAVE CAPTURED
THE EAST COAST WX SCENARIO A LITTLE BETTER AS OF LATE. EITHER
WAY...CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
50
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
POOREST VENTILATION TODAY WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WHERE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...EXCELLENT MAX VENT RATES FORECAST BENEATH MODERATELY
STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MIXING PATTERN. MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD...BUT ITS
EASTWARD EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED AS AN INITIAL PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST WELL NORTH OF THE STATE...AND A
SECOND MUCH STRONGER WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. IN
RESPONSE...MID LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OR TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH TIME TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
OVERALL MOISTENING TREND FOR AREAS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIGGING WAVE OF ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN REGION TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA BY SUNDAY. LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
THIS DEEP LOW BOTTOMING OUT JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS NEVADA BY MONDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE MODEL WORLD
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW. GROWING CONFIDENCE THE LOW
WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING FLOW...AT LEAST
BRIEFLY...DURING THE MON-TUE PERIOD AND THIS WILL HAVE IMPORTANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE EARLY WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS AND NAM...FOR
EXAMPLE...SLOWLY LIFT THE LOW NORTHEAST BEGINNING LATER MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING THE LOW CENTER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER NM WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORCE THE LOW ON A MORE DECIDEDLY SOUTHEAST
TRACK...AND IS AMONG THE FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
EITHER WAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER AND ACTIVE/SHOWERY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT UNTIL THURSDAY DO THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A DRYING/WARMING TREND COMMENCING.
FAIR TO LOCALLY POOR VENTILATION WILL PREDOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. KJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
543 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MOIST LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAM- LEVEL ENERGY MAINTAINING AREAS OF MVFR
TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AND -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY SC TO EC NM.
MEANWHILE... GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NE NM
PROVIDING ENHANCED UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CIGS AND VSBY IN BR/FG FROM KRTN AND KLVS TO VICINITY OF KTCC. MT
TOPS FREQUENTLY OBSCD. FOCUS FOR PRECIP AND ASSOCD MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IMPACTS THROUGH THE DAY WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TARGETING EC/SE NM AFTER 18Z. SE
SFC WIND WILL ALLOW MVFR/IFR CIGS TO IMPACT KSAF AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST 16Z. WILL INCLUDE VC PLACEHOLDER AT KABQ FOR THE PM HOURS
ONLY BUT DO ANTICIPATE SOME LOW CLOUDS TOPPING THE SANDIAS THIS AM
OWING TO WEAK EASTERLY FLOW. KJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...321 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED AND MOIST WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM EAST TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY
TREND BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT
THEN TREND WESTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS PACIFIC
TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER TO THE STATE. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOUND
ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO PICK UP SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE ON THE GRIDS BUT THE OVERALL
STORY REMAINS THE SAME. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE COMBINATION OF LIFTING DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/JET AS WELL AS OROGRAPHICS AND INSTABILITY
WILL AID DEEP CONVECTION AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
WITH QPF THAN THE NAM THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE ALTHOUGH BUYING
MORE INTO THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP. DO
LIKE THE NAMS DEPICTION OF LINEAR SEMI PERMANENT CONVECTION BANDS AS
WE GET WELL INTO THE EVENT. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE
THE NORM THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUDGED TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN WARM ADVECTION PERIODS SUCH AS THE
NEAR TERM ALTHOUGH NUDGED THEM BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LONGER LIVED. EITHER WAY...TEMPS COOL FROM
EAST TO WEST AND LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFES PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE PEAK READINGS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
AND APPEAR TO BE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.
COMBINE THAT WITH A 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATION 500 MB LOW TO THE
WEST AND YOU GET SOME HEFTY MOISTURE ADVECTION AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
DYNAMICS. THE WEAKER DYNAMICS MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW IS A
BIT TOO FAR TO THE WEST BUT IF IT WERE TO NUDGE CLOSER THEN SUNDAY
SHOULD BE VERY ACTIVE AS WELL. RESIDUAL IMPACTS TODAY FROM THE
INITIAL PACIFIC LOW AND DEPARTING 80 KNOT JET. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING PRECIP ENHANCEMENT AS A RESULT BETWEEN ABQ TO
LAS VEGAS ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
THAT AND MOVES THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. MORE
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES...ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. PROBABLY NOT THE COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY HOWEVER. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE NE HIGHLANDS/EASTERN PLAINS. THE SAME
AREA THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY. THINK THE DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE A BETTER LOOK AT HOW THE DEEP CONVECTION EVOLVES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CAN ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
QUESTIONS OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THEY EXIT THE PACIFIC LOW. THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO IN QUESTION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GILA REGION WED AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS HAD IT SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE EAST AND A LITTLE MORE NORTH.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS WHEN THE DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH
THE ECMWF PLACING THE LOW SOUTH OF THE STATE WHILE THE GFS HAS IT
MORE EAST. SORT OF LIKE THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE GFS BASED
ON THE TIME OF YEAR ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARED TO HAVE CAPTURED
THE EAST COAST WX SCENARIO A LITTLE BETTER AS OF LATE. EITHER
WAY...CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
50
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
POOREST VENTILATION TODAY WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WHERE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...EXCELLENT MAX VENT RATES FORECAST BENEATH MODERATELY
STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MIXING PATTERN. MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD...BUT ITS
EASTWARD EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED AS AN INITIAL PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST WELL NORTH OF THE STATE...AND A
SECOND MUCH STRONGER WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. IN
RESPONSE...MID LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OR TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH TIME TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
OVERALL MOISTENING TREND FOR AREAS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIGGING WAVE OF ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN REGION TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA BY SUNDAY. LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
THIS DEEP LOW BOTTOMING OUT JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS NEVADA BY MONDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE MODEL WORLD
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW. GROWING CONFIDENCE THE LOW
WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING FLOW...AT LEAST
BRIEFLY...DURING THE MON-TUE PERIOD AND THIS WILL HAVE IMPORTANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE EARLY WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS AND NAM...FOR
EXAMPLE...SLOWLY LIFT THE LOW NORTHEAST BEGINNING LATER MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING THE LOW CENTER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER NM WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORCE THE LOW ON A MORE DECIDEDLY SOUTHEAST
TRACK...AND IS AMONG THE FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
EITHER WAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER AND ACTIVE/SHOWERY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT UNTIL THURSDAY DO THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A DRYING/WARMING TREND COMMENCING.
FAIR TO LOCALLY POOR VENTILATION WILL PREDOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. KJ
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MTS FREQUENTLY OBSCD. STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT WITH UPPER LOW OVER
WRN WY AND UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED SWD INTO ARIZONA. UPPER LOW TO
PASS THROUGH NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 03/12Z BUT TROUGH WILL REMAIN
AS A SECOND STRONGER LOW SLIDES SWD FROM THE PAC NW. LOW LEVEL
SELY WINDS TO PERSIST THRU 03/21Z CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AND PRECIPITATION
PERSISTING THRU 03/16Z. SE SFC WIND MAY ALLOW MVFR/IFR CIGS TO
SEEP INTO KSAF AREA AFT 03/09Z. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/NE NM TO
PERSIST THROUGH 03/09Z...WITH ISOLD STRONG CELLS WITH HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45KT. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP OVER EAST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NM AFT 03/12Z.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
321 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED AND MOIST WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM EAST TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY
TREND BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT
THEN TREND WESTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS PACIFIC
TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER TO THE STATE. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOUND
ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO PICK UP SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE ON THE GRIDS BUT THE OVERALL
STORY REMAINS THE SAME. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE COMBINATION OF LIFTING DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/JET AS WELL AS OROGRAPHICS AND INSTABILITY
WILL AID DEEP CONVECTION AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
WITH QPF THAN THE NAM THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE ALTHOUGH BUYING
MORE INTO THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP. DO
LIKE THE NAMS DEPICTION OF LINEAR SEMI PERMANENT CONVECTION BANDS AS
WE GET WELL INTO THE EVENT. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE
THE NORM THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUDGED TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN WARM ADVECTION PERIODS SUCH AS THE
NEAR TERM ALTHOUGH NUDGED THEM BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LONGER LIVED. EITHER WAY...TEMPS COOL FROM
EAST TO WEST AND LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFES PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE PEAK READINGS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
AND APPEAR TO BE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.
COMBINE THAT WITH A 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATION 500 MB LOW TO THE
WEST AND YOU GET SOME HEFTY MOISTURE ADVECTION AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
DYNAMICS. THE WEAKER DYNAMICS MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW IS A
BIT TOO FAR TO THE WEST BUT IF IT WERE TO NUDGE CLOSER THEN SUNDAY
SHOULD BE VERY ACTIVE AS WELL. RESIDUAL IMPACTS TODAY FROM THE
INITIAL PACIFIC LOW AND DEPARTING 80 KNOT JET. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING PRECIP ENHANCEMENT AS A RESULT BETWEEN ABQ TO
LAS VEGAS ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
THAT AND MOVES THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. MORE
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES...ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. PROBABLY NOT THE COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY HOWEVER. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE NE HIGHLANDS/EASTERN PLAINS. THE SAME
AREA THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY. THINK THE DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE A BETTER LOOK AT HOW THE DEEP CONVECTION EVOLVES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CAN ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
QUESTIONS OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THEY EXIT THE PACIFIC LOW. THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO IN QUESTION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GILA REGION WED AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS HAD IT SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE EAST AND A LITTLE MORE NORTH.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS WHEN THE DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH
THE ECMWF PLACING THE LOW SOUTH OF THE STATE WHILE THE GFS HAS IT
MORE EAST. SORT OF LIKE THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE GFS BASED
ON THE TIME OF YEAR ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARED TO HAVE CAPTURED
THE EAST COAST WX SCENARIO A LITTLE BETTER AS OF LATE. EITHER
WAY...CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
50
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
POOREST VENTILATION TODAY WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WHERE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...EXCELLENT MAX VENT RATES FORECAST BENEATH MODERATELY
STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MIXING PATTERN. MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD...BUT ITS
EASTWARD EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED AS AN INITIAL PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST WELL NORTH OF THE STATE...AND A
SECOND MUCH STRONGER WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. IN
RESPONSE...MID LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OR TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH TIME TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
OVERALL MOISTENING TREND FOR AREAS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIGGING WAVE OF ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN REGION TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA BY SUNDAY. LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
THIS DEEP LOW BOTTOMING OUT JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS NEVADA BY MONDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE MODEL WORLD
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW. GROWING CONFIDENCE THE LOW
WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING FLOW...AT LEAST
BRIEFLY...DURING THE MON-TUE PERIOD AND THIS WILL HAVE IMPORTANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE EARLY WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS AND NAM...FOR
EXAMPLE...SLOWLY LIFT THE LOW NORTHEAST BEGINNING LATER MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING THE LOW CENTER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER NM WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORCE THE LOW ON A MORE DECIDEDLY SOUTHEAST
TRACK...AND IS AMONG THE FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
EITHER WAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER AND ACTIVE/SHOWERY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT UNTIL THURSDAY DO THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A DRYING/WARMING TREND COMMENCING.
FAIR TO LOCALLY POOR VENTILATION WILL PREDOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. KJ
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MTS FREQUENTLY OBSCD. STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT WITH UPPER LOW OVER
WRN WY AND UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED SWD INTO ARIZONA. UPPER LOW TO
PASS THROUGH NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 03/12Z BUT TROUGH WILL REMAIN
AS A SECOND STRONGER LOW SLIDES SWD FROM THE PAC NW. LOW LEVEL
SELY WINDS TO PERSIST THRU 03/21Z CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AND PRECIPITATION
PERSISTING THRU 03/16Z. SE SFC WIND MAY ALLOW MVFR/IFR CIGS TO
SEEP INTO KSAF AREA AFT 03/09Z. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/NE NM TO
PERSIST THROUGH 03/09Z...WITH ISOLD STRONG CELLS WITH HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45KT. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP OVER EAST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NM AFT 03/12Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 80 46 80 56 / 0 0 20 40
DULCE........................... 75 36 73 44 / 10 30 40 70
CUBA............................ 71 43 68 48 / 10 30 30 30
GALLUP.......................... 77 39 75 50 / 0 10 20 30
EL MORRO........................ 75 39 72 47 / 0 20 20 30
GRANTS.......................... 79 41 74 50 / 5 20 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 76 44 72 52 / 5 20 20 40
GLENWOOD........................ 81 47 77 53 / 10 40 30 40
CHAMA........................... 67 38 67 43 / 20 50 30 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 71 48 66 49 / 30 50 50 40
PECOS........................... 66 47 61 46 / 60 80 50 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 69 44 68 46 / 30 60 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 61 39 59 42 / 30 70 40 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 65 36 62 36 / 30 70 60 30
TAOS............................ 70 44 67 47 / 20 50 20 20
MORA............................ 65 43 61 43 / 60 80 40 30
ESPANOLA........................ 77 46 71 48 / 20 40 30 30
SANTA FE........................ 70 49 65 49 / 50 60 40 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 50 67 49 / 40 60 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 78 54 72 55 / 40 50 60 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 79 58 73 57 / 30 30 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 82 53 75 55 / 30 30 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 81 56 78 57 / 20 30 50 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 83 52 77 54 / 40 30 40 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 79 54 75 56 / 30 30 50 40
SOCORRO......................... 82 52 78 56 / 60 30 30 60
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 76 53 68 52 / 50 60 70 60
TIJERAS......................... 77 52 70 53 / 40 60 60 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 76 44 67 45 / 70 70 40 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 69 47 61 45 / 80 70 40 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 76 49 72 48 / 70 70 60 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 79 51 74 51 / 60 60 50 40
RUIDOSO......................... 70 47 64 48 / 60 80 70 50
CAPULIN......................... 62 46 64 48 / 20 60 20 20
RATON........................... 65 45 66 47 / 20 60 20 10
SPRINGER........................ 64 46 68 46 / 20 60 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 63 43 60 43 / 60 70 40 40
CLAYTON......................... 57 45 62 50 / 30 60 30 20
ROY............................. 63 45 61 46 / 60 80 30 30
CONCHAS......................... 68 50 68 50 / 70 80 30 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 72 51 66 49 / 80 80 30 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 50 67 51 / 70 80 50 30
CLOVIS.......................... 69 49 66 51 / 60 80 60 40
PORTALES........................ 73 48 70 50 / 60 80 50 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 71 50 68 51 / 70 90 50 30
ROSWELL......................... 78 57 69 57 / 70 80 60 40
PICACHO......................... 79 50 72 51 / 70 80 50 50
ELK............................. 75 49 65 49 / 80 80 60 60
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1205 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected through the period. Low clouds will be
possible beginning mid morning tomorrow at the NW AR terminals,
with a short period of MVFR cigs not out of the question but not
likely enough to mention.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
No update planned at this time, but will watch evolution of
showers/storms in northwest Oklahoma closely. Recent runs of the
HRRR bring the ongoing showers and storms into northeast Oklahoma,
generally along and west of Highway 75 before dissipation. Given
the decreasing trend in the area radar mosaic and morning
soundings, current thinking is that they will not make it this far
east. 12Z Norman and Springfield soundings indicate fairly dry
low levels in the area, and given the northeasterly low level flow
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, this should
continue. RAP isentropic fields show fairly substantial
condensational pressure deficits through the afternoon,
reinforcing this line of thinking. Have increased POPs in the
grids west of Highway 75 just a bit, but still below mentionable
levels, hence the lack of a need for an official update. Other
weather elements, including sky cover, which already indicated an
increasing trend, remain on track.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 12Z TAFS, patchy fog across a portion of Northwest
Arkansas this morning will continue to affect KFYV for another
hour or so. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
24 hour forecast period at all sites.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Pleasant autumn weather will continue for the next few days as
ridging at the surface and aloft prevails. Quite a bit of
cloudiness will spill over the upper ridge into the area,
especially tonight through Monday, but a dry low level airmass is
expected to preclude measurable rainfall. Would not be surprised
to see a few sprinkles though at some point over the next couple
days.
A warming trend will take place next week with temperatures
returning to above normal levels by midweek. The models differ
greatly on the handling of an upper level storm system that will
be moving out of the southwest U.S. during the middle to latter
part of next week. The GFS is much more progressive than the ECMWF
and UKMET resulting in a cooler and wetter solution late next
week. The European models close off the low well to our southwest
which would result in a much warmer and drier solution. For now
will stick to a compromise solution, which results in low pops
late next week along with temperatures well above the GFS solution
but well below the steamy ECMWF.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days
although if cloud cover becomes too extensive, diurnal ranges may
be less than forecast.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1046 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
No update planned at this time, but will watch evolution of
showers/storms in northwest Oklahoma closely. Recent runs of the
HRRR bring the ongoing showers and storms into northeast Oklahoma,
generally along and west of Highway 75 before dissipation. Given
the decreasing trend in the area radar mosaic and morning
soundings, current thinking is that they will not make it this far
east. 12Z Norman and Springfield soundings indicate fairly dry
low levels in the area, and given the northeasterly low level flow
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, this should
continue. RAP isentropic fields show fairly substantial
condensational pressure deficits through the afternoon,
reinforcing this line of thinking. Have increased POPs in the
grids west of Highway 75 just a bit, but still below mentionable
levels, hence the lack of a need for an official update. Other
weather elements, including sky cover, which already indicated an
increasing trend, remain on track.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 12Z TAFS, patchy fog across a portion of Northwest
Arkansas this morning will continue to affect KFYV for another
hour or so. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
24 hour forecast period at all sites.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Pleasant autumn weather will continue for the next few days as
ridging at the surface and aloft prevails. Quite a bit of
cloudiness will spill over the upper ridge into the area,
especially tonight through Monday, but a dry low level airmass is
expected to preclude measurable rainfall. Would not be surprised
to see a few sprinkles though at some point over the next couple
days.
A warming trend will take place next week with temperatures
returning to above normal levels by midweek. The models differ
greatly on the handling of an upper level storm system that will
be moving out of the southwest U.S. during the middle to latter
part of next week. The GFS is much more progressive than the ECMWF
and UKMET resulting in a cooler and wetter solution late next
week. The European models close off the low well to our southwest
which would result in a much warmer and drier solution. For now
will stick to a compromise solution, which results in low pops
late next week along with temperatures well above the GFS solution
but well below the steamy ECMWF.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days
although if cloud cover becomes too extensive, diurnal ranges may
be less than forecast.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
754 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO MAINTAIN A DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY THEN AREAS OF
LIGHTER RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL BE KICKED OUT THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BY THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE STORM MOVING MUCH CLOSER TO
BERMUDA THAN THE U.S. MAINLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN AT 07Z...WHILE ONLY ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
A FEW WEAK-MDTLY STRONG /BUT COMPACT/ UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES WILL
DRIFT NNWD ACRS PENN...BRINGING A STEADY LIGHT TO MDT RAINFL
AMOUNTS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE VERY EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAIN FALLING OVER PRACTICALLY ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN AT
1030Z WILL OVERSPREAD THE NW MTNS BETWEEN 12-14Z...WITH THE DEEP
LAYER FLOW TAKES ON A SERLY COMPONENT AS THE HUGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE SERN STATES DIGS AND TAKES ON A NEG TILT...EJECTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SREF AND 00Z GFS OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE /WHICH RANGES FROM ABOUT
ONE-QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH/ LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE START TIME OF THE PRECIP AND
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EARLY TODAY...WHILE THE NAM/S VERY LIGHT QPF
/FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DRIZZLE/...WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE DRY SIDE. 03/06Z HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TODAY WILL OCCUR FROM THE STATE COLLEGE AREA...SOUTH AND
WEST TWD THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
MORE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THE RAIN GOES LIKE THIS...
FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS - LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN BY NOON.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES - LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 1
OR 2 PM EXPECT TO SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE LINGERING
AFTERWARD.
AND OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS...CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR WITH JUST
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY. STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING TO DRIZZLE AFTER 3 PM. EXPECT TO SEE
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY 3 PM.
EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AVERAGING IN THE 40S...WHILE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S RESPECTIVELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN PENN. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEG F COLDER THAT THE ACTUAL AIR TEMP TODAY.
THESE CHILLY AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE 15-18F BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER...AND THE GUSTY EAST TO NE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER.
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FROM NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE PERIODS OF
RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY /AND 15-18Z OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY BUILDS WESTWARD AND SHUNTS THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION AND OFF TO OUR WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND RIDGE SHROUDING FOG CONTINUES
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR FALL OFF JUST A
FEW DEG F. LOWS WILL BE IN THE L-M 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F ELSEWHERE.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST SUNDAY. ASIDE FROM THE
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE
COMPARATIVELY DRY...AND MILDER BY 10-12 DEG F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHEAST CLOSED LOW WHICH
ALLOWS THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NRN TIER
STATES. ASIDE FROM A WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT AROUND MID
WEEK...MOST OF THE MON-THU PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS
BACK TO EARLY OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS. RAIN RISK SHOULD INCREASE
BY FRIDAY 10/9 BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
METAR DATA FLOWING AGAIN AFTER EARLIER FAA/NWS COMMS LINK ISSUES.
DEEP MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE...WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25MPH ESP OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TERMINALS OF
KMDT/KLNS. ADDED A BIT OF LLWS THROUGH MIDDAY AS LL WINDS ALOFT
INCREASING TO 30-40MPH.
WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS HAVE TAKEN HOLD AS A STEADIER RAIN PUSHES
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH VARIABLE CEILINGS. CHANCE THAT CIGS MAY
RISE TO MVFR AT KIPT LATER IN THE DAY IF SOME DRIER AIR CAN SLIP
IN ON A MORE NE WIND TRAJECTORY.
WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS PERSIST TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...WIDESPREAD CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY...ESP SOUTH AND WEST.
BREEZY SOUTH.
MON-WED...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
655 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO MAINTAIN A DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY THEN AREAS OF
LIGHTER RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL BE KICKED OUT THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BY THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE STORM MOVING MUCH CLOSER TO
BERMUDA THAN THE U.S. MAINLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN AT 07Z...WHILE ONLY ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
A FEW WEAK-MDTLY STRONG /BUT COMPACT/ UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES WILL
DRIFT NNWD ACRS PENN...BRINGING A STEADY LIGHT TO MDT RAINFL
AMOUNTS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE VERY EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAIN FALLING OVER PRACTICALLY ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN AT
1030Z WILL OVERSPREAD THE NW MTNS BETWEEN 12-14Z...WITH THE DEEP
LAYER FLOW TAKES ON A SERLY COMPONENT AS THE HUGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE SERN STATES DIGS AND TAKES ON A NEG TILT...EJECTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SREF AND 00Z GFS OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE /WHICH RANGES FROM ABOUT
ONE-QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH/ LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE START TIME OF THE PRECIP AND
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EARLY TODAY...WHILE THE NAM/S VERY LIGHT QPF
/FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DRIZZLE/...WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE DRY SIDE. 03/06Z HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TODAY WILL OCCUR FROM THE STATE COLLEGE AREA...SOUTH AND
WEST TWD THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
MORE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THE RAIN GOES LIKE THIS...
FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS - LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN BY NOON.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES - LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 1
OR 2 PM EXPECT TO SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE LINGERING
AFTERWARD.
AND OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS...CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR WITH JUST
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY. STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING TO DRIZZLE AFTER 3 PM. EXPECT TO SEE
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY 3 PM.
EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AVERAGING IN THE 40S...WHILE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S RESPECTIVELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN PENN. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEG F COLDER THAT THE ACTUAL AIR TEMP TODAY.
THESE CHILLY AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE 15-18F BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER...AND THE GUSTY EAST TO NE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER.
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FROM NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE PERIODS OF
RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY /AND 15-18Z OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY BUILDS WESTWARD AND SHUNTS THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION AND OFF TO OUR WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND RIDGE SHROUDING FOG CONTINUES
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR FALL OFF JUST A
FEW DEG F. LOWS WILL BE IN THE L-M 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F ELSEWHERE.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST SUNDAY. ASIDE FROM THE
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE
COMPARATIVELY DRY...AND MILDER BY 10-12 DEG F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHEAST CLOSED LOW WHICH
ALLOWS THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NRN TIER
STATES. ASIDE FROM A WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT AROUND MID
WEEK...MOST OF THE MON-THU PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS
BACK TO EARLY OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS. RAIN RISK SHOULD INCREASE
BY FRIDAY 10/9 BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z TAFS ISSUED...THOUGH VERY LIMITED METAR DATA AVAILABLE DUE TO
FAA/NWS COMMS LINK ISSUES.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH COMBINED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL KEEP A DEEP-MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 20-25MPH...EVEN A BIT HIGHER OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TERMINALS OF KMDT/KLNS. ADDED A BIT OF LLWS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS LL WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
TO 30-40MPH.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SE TO NW OVERNIGHT...WITH
VSBY REDUCTIONS DEVELOPING AS WELL AS STEADIER RAIN PUSHES
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BY
SUNRISE AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY...THOUGH
CIGS MAY RISE TO MVFR FROM KIPT-KMDT LATER IN THE DAY IF SOME
DRIER AIR SLIPS IN FROM A MORE NE TRAJECTORY.
WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS PERSIST SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PERIODS OF RAIN/WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. BREEZY EAST WIND.
SUN...WIDESPRAED CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH RAIN LIKELY...ESP SOUTH.
BREEZY NE WIND ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MON-WED...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
531 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO MAINTAIN A DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY THEN AREAS OF
LIGHTER RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL BE KICKED OUT THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BY THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE STORM MOVING MUCH CLOSER TO
BERMUDA THAN THE U.S. MAINLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN AT 07Z...WHILE ONLY ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
A FEW WEAK-MDTLY STRONG BUT COMPACT UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES WILL
DRIFT NNWD BRINGING LIGHT TO MDT RAINFL AMOUNTS TO THE AREA THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERING TRIMMING
BACK THE RAINFL AMOUNTS BY ABOUT 25 PERCENT...BUT UPSTREAM
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 TENTHS PER HOUR OCCURRING FROM THE D.C. AREA...SWWD
ACROSS CENTRAL VA SUGGESTS BEING PATIENT FOR A BIT LONGER AND
LOOKING AT THE NEXT FEW HRRR RUNS.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS AS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW TAKES ON A
SERLY COMPONENT AS THE HUGE UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN STATES DIGS
AND TAKES ON A NEG TILT...EJECTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SREF AND 00Z GFS OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE /WHICH RANGES FROM ABOUT
ONE-QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH/ LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE START TIME OF THE PRECIP AND
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EARLY TODAY...WHILE THE NAM/S VERY LIGHT QPF
/FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DRIZZLE/...WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE DRY SIDE. 03/06Z HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TODAY WILL OCCUR FROM THE STATE COLLEGE AREA...SOUTH AND
WEST TWD THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
MORE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THE RAIN GOES LIKE THIS...
FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS - LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN BY NOON.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES - LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 1
OR 2 PM EXPECT TO SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE LINGERING
AFTERWARD.
AND OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS...CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR WITH JUST
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY. STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING TO DRIZZLE AFTER 3 PM. EXPECT TO SEE
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY 3 PM.
EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AVERAGING IN THE 40S...WHILE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S RESPECTIVELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN PENN. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEG F COLDER THAT THE ACTUAL AIR TEMP TODAY.
THESE CHILLY AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE 15-18F BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER...AND THE GUSTY EAST TO NE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FROM NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE PERIODS OF
RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MID /OR MORE
LIKELY LATE/ AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY
BUILDS WESTWARD AND SHUNTS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REGION AND OFF TO OUR WEST.
AFTER A WET MORNING...I USED A BLEND OF MOS AND SREF POPS FOR THE
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL MAY BE A BIT ON THE PESSIMISTIC
SIDE.
IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID
50S FROM NW TO SE.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAFL AS PWS STEADILY DECLINE /AND REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD/ BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH A DECREASING POP TREND AND DRY
WEATHER A GOOD BET HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE LATEST
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHEAST CLOSED LOW WHICH
ALLOWS THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NRN TIER
STATES. ASIDE FROM A WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT AROUND MID
WEEK...MOST OF THE MON-THU PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS
BACK TO EARLY OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS. RAIN RISK SHOULD INCREASE
BY FRIDAY 10/9 BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z TAFS ISSUED...THOUGH VERY LIMITED METAR DATA AVAILABLE DUE TO
FAA/NWS COMMS LINK ISSUES.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH COMBINED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL KEEP A DEEP-MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 20-25MPH...EVEN A BIT HIGHER OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TERMINALS OF KMDT/KLNS. ADDED A BIT OF LLWS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS LL WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
TO 30-40MPH.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SE TO NW OVERNIGHT...WITH
VSBY REDUCTIONS DEVELOPING AS WELL AS STEADIER RAIN PUSHES
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BY
SUNRISE AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY...THOUGH
CIGS MAY RISE TO MVFR FROM KIPT-KMDT LATER IN THE DAY IF SOME
DRIER AIR SLIPS IN FROM A MORE NE TRAJECTORY.
WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS PERSIST SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PERIODS OF RAIN/WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. BREEZY EAST WIND.
SUN...WIDESPRAED CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH RAIN LIKELY...ESP SOUTH.
BREEZY NE WIND ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MON-WED...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
338 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO MAINTAIN A DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY THEN AREAS OF
LIGHTER RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL BE KICKED OUT THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BY THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE STORM MOVING MUCH CLOSER TO
BERMUDA THAN THE U.S. MAINLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
AFFECTING THE SOUTERN TIER OF PENN AT 07Z...WHILE ONLY ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS AS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW TAKES ON A
SELY COMPONENT AS THE HUGE UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN STATES DIGS AND
TAKES ON A NEG TILT...EJECTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVES
ACROSS THE REGION.
SREF AND 00Z GFS OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE /WHICH RANGES FROM ABOUT
ONE-QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH/ LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE START TIME OF THE PRECIP AND
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EARLY TODAY...WHILE THE NAM/S VERY LIGHT QPF
/FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DRIZZLE/...WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE DRY SIDE. 03/06Z HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TODAY WILL OCCUR FROM THE STATE COLLEGE AREA...SOUTH AND
WEST TWD THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
A FEW WEAK-MDTLY STRONG BUT COMPACT UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES WILL
DRIFT NNWD BRINGING LIGHT TO MDT RAINFL AMOUNTS TO THE AREA THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERING TRIMMING
BACK THE RAINFL AMOUNTS BY ABOUT 25 PERCENT...BUT UPSTREAM
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 TENTHS PER HOUR OCCURRING FROM THE D.C. AREA...SWWD
ACROSS CENTRAL VA SUGGESTS BEING PATIENT FOR A BIT LONGER AND
LOOKING AT THE NEXT FEW HRRR RUNS.
EARLY MONRING LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AVERAGING IN THE 40S...WHILE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S RESPECTIVELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN PENN. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEG F COLDER THAT THE ACTUAL AIR TEMP TODAY.
THESE CHILLY AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE 15-18F BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER...AND THE GUSTY EAST TO NE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FROM NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE PERIODS OF
RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MID /OR MORE
LIKELY LATE/ AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY
BUILDS WESTWARD AND SHUNTS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REGION AND OFF TO OUR WEST.
AFTER A WET MORNING...I USED A BLEND OF MOS AND SREF POPS FOR THE
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL MAY BE A BIT ON THE PESSIMISTIC
SIDE.
IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID
50S FROM NW TO SE.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAFL AS PWS STEADILY DECLINE /AND REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD/ BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH A DECREASING POP TREND AND DRY
WEATHER A GOOD BET HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE LATEST
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHEAST CLOSED LOW WHICH
ALLOWS THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NRN TIER
STATES. ASIDE FROM A WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT AROUND MID
WEEK...MOST OF THE MON-THU PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS
BACK TO EARLY OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS. RAIN RISK SHOULD INCREASE
BY FRIDAY 10/9 BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z TAFS ISSUED...THOUGH VERY LIMITED METAR DATA AVAILABLE DUE TO
FAA/NWS COMMS LINK ISSUES.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH COMBINED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL KEEP A DEEP-MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 20-25MPH...EVEN A BIT HIGHER OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TERMINALS OF KMDT/KLNS. ADDED A BIT OF LLWS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS LL WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
TO 30-40MPH.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SE TO NW OVERNIGHT...WITH
VSBY REDUCTIONS DEVELOPING AS WELL AS STEADIER RAIN PUSHES
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BY
SUNRISE AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY...THOUGH
CIGS MAY RISE TO MVFR FROM KIPT-KMDT LATER IN THE DAY IF SOME
DRIER AIR SLIPS IN FROM A MORE NE TRAJECTORY.
WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS PERSIST SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PERIODS OF RAIN/WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. BREEZY EAST WIND.
SUN...WIDESPRAED CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH RAIN LIKELY...ESP SOUTH.
BREEZY NE WIND ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MON-WED...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE TO BUMP UP THE POPS ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. ALSO DECREASED THE MAX TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND EXPECTED OVERCAST/RAIN
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
DISCUSSION...
WEATHER PATTERN, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATED TO OUR EAST AND
A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PENSACOLA. RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW, SO MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE SOME DRYING. TODAY MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW GFS GUIDANCE, AS SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST AND
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH. THE HRRR BRINGS AN AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO THIS WILL ALSO HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVES FARTHER
NORTH, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST AND ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THUS, LOOK FOR A LONG DRY PERIOD STARTING MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING RAPIDLY AND REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FROM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POUR INTO MIDDLE TN FROM THE EAST.
THIS IS KEEPING CLOUD DECKS LOW AND OFF AND ON RAIN MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE
WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND LOWERED VIS WITH ANY RAIN THAT PASSES
OVER A TERMINAL.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED OF
10-12 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 18-20 KTS.
UNGER
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
49
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
630 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER PATTERN, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATED TO OUR EAST AND
A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PENSACOLA. RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW, SO MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE SOME DRYING. TODAY MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW GFS GUIDANCE, AS SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST AND
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH. THE HRRR BRINGS AN AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO THIS WILL ALSO HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVES FARTHER
NORTH, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST AND ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THUS, LOOK FOR A LONG DRY PERIOD STARTING MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING RAPIDLY AND REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FROM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POUR INTO MIDDLE TN FROM THE EAST.
THIS IS KEEPING CLOUD DECKS LOW AND OFF AND ON RAIN MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE
WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND LOWERED VIS WITH ANY RAIN THAT PASSES
OVER A TERMINAL.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED OF
10-12 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 18-20 KTS.
UNGER
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
229 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 07Z SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR
WEATHER PATTERN, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATED TO OUR EAST AND
A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PENSACOLA. RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW, SO MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE SOME DRYING. TODAY MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW GFS GUIDANCE, AS SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST AND
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH. THE HRRR BRINGS AN AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO THIS WILL ALSO HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVES FARTHER
NORTH, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST AND ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THUS, LOOK FOR A LONG DRY PERIOD STARTING MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING RAPIDLY AND REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FROM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 59 56 75 59 / 40 30 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 59 54 72 56 / 30 30 20 10
CROSSVILLE 59 58 70 56 / 70 50 30 20
COLUMBIA 60 54 73 57 / 30 30 30 10
LAWRENCEBURG 60 53 73 58 / 30 30 30 10
WAVERLY 60 53 72 57 / 20 30 20 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
525 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY AND NOSING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS LIFTING NORTH OVER THE STATE BRINGING A SWATH OF BROKEN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS IS LIFTING
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PEEL OUT EARLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE.
BUT EVEN AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENS...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BREEZY. LOW STRATUS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY IS PROJECTED TO SURGE NORTHWEST INTO MUCH OF EAST-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE COMBO OF CLOUDS AND
WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS ON PAR WITH LAST NIGHTS READINGS. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER N-C WI...SO WILL ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY THERE. BUT A NORTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD KEEP FROST POTENTIAL
MORE MARGINAL OVER CENTRAL WI.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTHEAST BUT STILL REMAIN
FAIRLY DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
PUSH SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE
MORNING BUT THEN MIX OUT SOME IN THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...AND A FEW MODELS SPIT OUT
LIGHT QPF. PROGGED SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE ENOUGH SATURATION SO
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PCPN TRENDS WITH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WEDS NGT
INTO THURSDAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT EAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERATE
SOME CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS IN
EASTERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH EAST FLOW IS SHALLOW AND OVER-
WATER INSTABILITY IS WEAK (LK-H8 DELTA-T`S 7 TO 12 C)...SO
PROBABLY MORE OF A DRIZZLE THREAT THAN ANYTHING ELSE. NOT SURE
HOW FAR WEST THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GET...SO DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE PREV FCST...WHICH HAD LESS CLOUDS NORTHWEST...AS WELL AS
COOL TEMPS/FROST. AFTER A COOL START...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE INTO
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S BY TUES.
OF GREATER CONCERN IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION FROM WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE STRONG DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH A 35-45 KT LLJ...MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND UPPER LEVEL JET/SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY. IN ADDITION...PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES...WITH H8 DEW POINTS AROUND +10 C...SO MOISTURE
SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER OUR
WSTRN COUNTIES WEDS NGT...AND OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER...AS H8 LI`S
INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW HALF OF
THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 442 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
SCT-BKN035 LOWER END VFR CIGS TO LINGER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT MVFR
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUING SUNDAY MORNING.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LOWER END VFR CIGS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BLUSTERY EAST WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER INLAND AREAS BUT
WILL LINGER THIS EVENING ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>012.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY AND NOSING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS LIFTING NORTH OVER THE STATE BRINGING A SWATH OF BROKEN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS IS LIFTING
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PEEL OUT EARLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE.
BUT EVEN AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENS...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BREEZY. LOW STRATUS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY IS PROJECTED TO SURGE NORTHWEST INTO MUCH OF EAST-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE COMBO OF CLOUDS AND
WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS ON PAR WITH LAST NIGHTS READINGS. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER N-C WI...SO WILL ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY THERE. BUT A NORTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD KEEP FROST POTENTIAL
MORE MARGINAL OVER CENTRAL WI.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTHEAST BUT STILL REMAIN
FAIRLY DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
PUSH SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE
MORNING BUT THEN MIX OUT SOME IN THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...AND A FEW MODELS SPIT OUT
LIGHT QPF. PROGGED SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE ENOUGH SATURATION SO
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PCPN TRENDS WITH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WEDS NGT
INTO THURSDAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT EAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERATE
SOME CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS IN
EASTERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH EAST FLOW IS SHALLOW AND OVER-
WATER INSTABILITY IS WEAK (LK-H8 DELTA-T`S 7 TO 12 C)...SO
PROBABLY MORE OF A DRIZZLE THREAT THAN ANYTHING ELSE. NOT SURE
HOW FAR WEST THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GET...SO DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE PREV FCST...WHICH HAD LESS CLOUDS NORTHWEST...AS WELL AS
COOL TEMPS/FROST. AFTER A COOL START...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE INTO
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S BY TUES.
OF GREATER CONCERN IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION FROM WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE STRONG DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH A 35-45 KT LLJ...MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND UPPER LEVEL JET/SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY. IN ADDITION...PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES...WITH H8 DEW POINTS AROUND +10 C...SO MOISTURE
SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER OUR
WSTRN COUNTIES WEDS NGT...AND OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER...AS H8 LI`S
INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW HALF OF
THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MID-
EVENING BUT WITH SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SURGE NORTHWEST FROM THE LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN WISCONSIN INCLUDING
THE FOX VALLEY. CIGS TO LOWER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>012.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
330 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
08Z ANALYSIS SHOWS MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING
MOST OF THE EASTERN NOAM CONTINENT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SO FAR ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94 HAVE ONLY DROPPED
INTO THE MID 30S...SO MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL FROST ADVISORY BEFORE
8 AM CDT.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS TO AROUND 850 HPA WITH 20 KTS TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...SOME EASTERLY BREEZES UP TO 20
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN A DROP IN 925 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 1-2
DEGREES CELSIUS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI...BUT WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE
TO AVOID DUPLICATE HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS REMNANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
DEPARTING SOUTHEAST U.S. TROUGH RETROGRADES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...A CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE
WILL SLIDE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST
IF NOT ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS CANADA.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A BIT EACH
DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING 70 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.
COMPARED TO THE 02.00Z MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL RUNS...TODAY/S GFS/
ECMWF ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS NOW SHOW A BROAD SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH MOVING INTO TX
BY LATE WEEK...ALLOWING ANOTHER CANADIAN TROUGH TO IMPACT THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SHOWERS GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY FOR
MID-OCTOBER...BUT GFS IS SHOWING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...SO MAY
NEED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN LATER FORECASTS. COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY. DAILY
HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS SKIES SKC-SCT WITH NO IMPACTS TO VSBYS. MARGINAL LLWS TONIGHT
WITH RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MID 30 KTS BY 1400 FT AT
KLSE/KRST TIL 09Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-034-
042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR. SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH SURFACE RIDGE ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL.
THE 02.12Z GFS/NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING SURFACE RIDGE
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST CAN BE EXPECTED TO FORM
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...PATCHY FROST WILL FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS
EXPECTED TO WRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA PER THE 02.12Z GFS/NAM 925 AND 850MB RH FIELDS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LATEST 02.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SATURATION FROM NEAR THE SURFACE TO AROUND 850MB OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 09Z MONDAY. VERTICAL
MOTION WEAK NEAR THE SURFACE TO 850MB OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE
02.12Z MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF DRIZZLE OUT
OF THE FORECAST.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 02.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02.12Z GFS/ECMWF IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN PUSHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE 02.12Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
02.12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINIMAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH ATMOSPHERE COLUMN DRY AND SURFACE
RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS SKIES SKC-SCT WITH NO IMPACTS TO VSBYS. MARGINAL LLWS TONIGHT
WITH RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MID 30 KTS BY 1400 FT AT
KLSE/KRST TIL 09Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-
042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
921 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS (ZONES 116 AND 117). WYDOT SENSORS
FROM BUFORD TO THE SUMMIT SHOW VIS OF 300-500 FT...SO GETTING SOME
PRETTY DENSE FOG. VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNRISE. HRRR SHOWS FOG SPREADING EASTWARD TO CHEYENNE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THUS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
MONITOR OBS AROUND CHEYENNE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR RAPID CITY
TO NORTH OF TORRINGTON TO NEAR LARAMIE THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS BLANKETING SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
UPSLOPING SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE. A LITTLE WARMER TODAY OVER
SATURDAY WITH 1 PM REPORTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO THE UPPER 50S OUT BY RAWLINS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR AREA
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER REPEAT OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE. LOWER LEVEL WINDS DO BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER
12Z MONDAY...THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE MORNING. THINKING THAT
FOG/STRATUS WILL BREAK UP TOMORROW MORNING INSTEAD OF HANGING IN
LIKE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT OF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
OF THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. BY MONDAY EVENING THOUGH...WE BEGIN TO
SEE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING/WESTERN COLORADO. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT WEST POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...BUT MORE LIKELY MONDAY EVENING.
DIFFERENCES IN LOW MOVEMENT TUESDAY WITH THE GFS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE LOW. GFS SHOWING LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. SHOULD
THE GFS SOLUTION HOLD TRUE...MANY AREAS WOULD SEE WETTING RAINS
HERE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH SHOW THE I-80
CORRIDOR PICKING UP THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DID MAINTAIN OR
INCREASE POPS FOR TUESDAY WITH THIS AGREEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET DAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO OUR EAST. PERHAPS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
THURSDAY...DRY AND COOLER IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
FRIDAY...CONTINUED DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WARMING TREND BEGINS AS THE AIRMASS MODERATES.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS A RIDGE ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD AND THEN WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY...INDUCING
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LEE TROUGHING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT CYS THROUGH THE EVENING. KEPT
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH 06Z...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL THEN BEGIN TO LOWER
AFTER 06Z AS LOW LEVEL SATURATION INCREASES. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG FOR MANY AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
WESTERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZF
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
134 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. NOT REALLY SEEING ANY UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCES THAT COULD KICK OFF SHOWERS...SO CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSAIC RADAR IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION UP IN RIVERTONS
AREA...JUST NORTH OF CARBON COUNTY THATS SHOWING A SLOW SOUTHEAST
PROGRESSION. HRRR SHOWING SOME CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND DRIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY WAIT
FOR THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
BEFORE PUBLISHING THE FORECAST.
EXPECTING A REPEAT TONIGHT FOR FOG/STRATUS. MAYBE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD COMBINE TO GIVE MOST OF US A
COLD/DAMP NIGHT. ALL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE
SURFACE...EVEN OUT BY RAWLINS. CONTINUED THE WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN ENDING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS
UP INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL THERE...BUT
MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO OVERNIGHT FOG MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM CHEYENNE TO WHEATLAND. TRENDED THE FORECAST
THAT WAY FOR MONDAY MORNING.
WESTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO +8C. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S AS THIS HAPPENS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER EASTERN UTAH...COMBINED WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
WYOMING COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY...LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH...SO NO MORE THAN ISOLATED
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...EVEN MORE DRYING OUT WITH NORTHWEST ALOFT ALOFT...THUS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES NORTHWEST WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...THOUGH WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.
SATURDAY...SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR DEVELOPING TONIGHT IN FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING AFTER DAYLIGHT
SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE STAY IN
A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS. WIDESPREAD FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ROTATING
AROUND A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
IF WE KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...COVERAGE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WITH US
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS. SO NO
ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1126 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WENT AHEAD AND LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME AT 9 AM
THIS MORNING. AREA WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS THE WYDOT WEBCAM ON I80 NEAR
VEDAUWOO...MILE MARKER 330 WHERE VISIBILITY IS STILL REDUCED.
LOOKING AT WEBCAMS BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THIS SITE...VISIBILITIES
ARE PRETTY GOOD...SO PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT THIS IS ONLY AN
ISOLATED AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. AREA WEBCAMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
HAVE SHOWN FLUCTUATING VISIBILITIES...LIKELY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WHERE THIS IS NOT OCCURRING...SO DO NOT
SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADZY. 15Z EXPIRATION
LOOKS GOOD WITH THE 08Z HRRR SHOWING IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER THAT
TIME. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WITH
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND EXCELLENT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE.
ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORM
ACTIVITY. AT 10Z...THE KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWED A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM TORRINGTON TO
PINE BLUFFS AND INTO NORTHEAST CO. THIS IS MOST LIKELY THE RESULT OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED MAINTENANCE OF THE BAND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. IT WILL
BE QUITE RAW ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND CAPES
OVER 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH VORT ENERGY AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIP/EMBEDDED CONVECTION. WITH 700 HPA TEMPS AT
OR BELOW +4 DEG C...WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH WARMING TODAY. HEDGED BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE EXCELLENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
CONTINUED UPSLOPE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE SUPPORTIVE OF YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING SITES SUCH
AS KRWL OUT WEST. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT LIFTING NORTHEAST. OVERALL TREND
SHOULD BE FOR DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COOL/RAW DAY EXPECTED THOUGH WITH QUITE A
BIT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND COOL THERMAL PROFILES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH CUT OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. COULD AGAIN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT THE FORECAST
BECOMES MUCH LESS CERTAIN AS MODEL BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE MAIN
QUESTION BEING THE PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TYPICALLY THE
MODELS DO NOT HANDLE CUT OFF SYSTEMS VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO TRACK THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING IN FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE
OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
913 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WENT AHEAD AND LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME AT 9 AM
THIS MORNING. AREA WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS THE WYDOT WEBCAM ON I80 NEAR
VEDAUWOO...MILE MARKER 330 WHERE VISIBILITY IS STILL REDUCED.
LOOKING AT WEBCAMS BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THIS SITE...VISIBILITIES
ARE PRETTY GOOD...SO PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT THIS IS ONLY AN
ISOLATED AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. AREA WEBCAMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
HAVE SHOWN FLUCTUATING VISIBILITIES...LIKELY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WHERE THIS IS NOT OCCURRING...SO DO NOT
SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADZY. 15Z EXPIRATION
LOOKS GOOD WITH THE 08Z HRRR SHOWING IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER THAT
TIME. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WITH
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND EXCELLENT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE.
ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORM
ACTIVITY. AT 10Z...THE KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWED A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM TORRINGTON TO
PINE BLUFFS AND INTO NORTHEAST CO. THIS IS MOST LIKELY THE RESULT OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED MAINTENANCE OF THE BAND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. IT WILL
BE QUITE RAW ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND CAPES
OVER 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH VORT ENERGY AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIP/EMBEDDED CONVECTION. WITH 700 HPA TEMPS AT
OR BELOW +4 DEG C...WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH WARMING TODAY. HEDGED BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE EXCELLENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
CONTINUED UPSLOPE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE SUPPORTIVE OF YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING SITES SUCH
AS KRWL OUT WEST. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT LIFTING NORTHEAST. OVERALL TREND
SHOULD BE FOR DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COOL/RAW DAY EXPECTED THOUGH WITH QUITE A
BIT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND COOL THERMAL PROFILES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH CUT OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. COULD AGAIN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT THE FORECAST
BECOMES MUCH LESS CERTAIN AS MODEL BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE MAIN
QUESTION BEING THE PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TYPICALLY THE
MODELS DO NOT HANDLE CUT OFF SYSTEMS VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO TRACK THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAKING FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ALONG WITH LOW CIGS WILL BE FOG AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TODAY
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIGHT WINDS FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL WYOMING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE
OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
505 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. AREA WEBCAMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
HAVE SHOWN FLUCTUATING VISIBILITIES...LIKELY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WHERE THIS IS NOT OCCURRING...SO DO NOT
SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADZY. 15Z EXPIRATION
LOOKS GOOD WITH THE 08Z HRRR SHOWING IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER THAT
TIME. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WITH
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND EXCELLENT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE.
ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORM
ACTIVITY. AT 10Z...THE KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWED A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM TORRINGTON TO
PINE BLUFFS AND INTO NORTHEAST CO. THIS IS MOST LIKELY THE RESULT OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED MAINTENANCE OF THE BAND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. IT WILL
BE QUITE RAW ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND CAPES
OVER 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH VORT ENERGY AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIP/EMBEDDED CONVECTION. WITH 700 HPA TEMPS AT
OR BELOW +4 DEG C...WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH WARMING TODAY. HEDGED BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE EXCELLENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
CONTINUED UPSLOPE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE SUPPORTIVE OF YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING SITES SUCH
AS KRWL OUT WEST. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT LIFTING NORTHEAST. OVERALL TREND
SHOULD BE FOR DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COOL/RAW DAY EXPECTED THOUGH WITH QUITE A
BIT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND COOL THERMAL PROFILES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH CUT OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. COULD AGAIN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT THE FORECAST
BECOMES MUCH LESS CERTAIN AS MODEL BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE MAIN
QUESTION BEING THE PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TYPICALLY THE
MODELS DO NOT HANDLE CUT OFF SYSTEMS VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO TRACK THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAKING FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ALONG WITH LOW CIGS WILL BE FOG AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TODAY
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIGHT WINDS FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL WYOMING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE
OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
305 AM MST MON OCT 5 2015
.UPDATE...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA. DECREASING MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY CENTERED OVER
LOS ANGELES EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WE HAVE HAD A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE FIFTIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
REDEVELOPING PERSISTENTLY TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX IN A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT AREA...BUT THESE STORMS REMAIN WEAK AS CAPE IS VERY
LIMITED. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNDER STRONG UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER SONORA MEXICO...A SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS
CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THERE
IS A DECENT SHOT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA BY 12Z AND THEN INTO THE PHOENIX AREA AROUND 15Z THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LATER THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO BETWEEN 40-60 PERCENT
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TODAY FOR SOME ROTATING AND LONGER
LASTING ORGANIZED STORMS...SO ONCE THE COLDER MID LEVEL AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE MANAGE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
THOUGH STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
UNLESS WE GET TRAINING CELLS.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND DYNAMICALLY
INDUCED VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL START TO WANE
SOMEWHAT. WE WILL STILL HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECTING REDUCED COVERAGE. DAYTIME
HOURS TUESDAY IS LOOKING A BIT MORE INTERESTING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARIZONA AS MODEL GUIDANCE NOW BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
A RESULT...THE COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL END UP DRIFTING INTO WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO
BETWEEN MINUS 14-16C. AS LONG AS THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSOLATION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER GOOD
CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOWER THAN
TODAY DUE TO A DROP OFF IN WIND SHEAR...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW HAIL
PRODUCING STORMS DUE TO THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND HIGHER CAPE.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PICK UP SPEED ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW
CENTER MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INCREASING SUBSIDENT FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE EXITING
LOW WILL LIMIT ANY RESIDUAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. STARTING
THURSDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES RAPIDLY INCREASE HEIGHTS ALOFT
AND LOWER THAN 10 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL START OUT RELATIVELY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 80S TODAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ONCE THE UPPER
LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGING TAKES OVER LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGHS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY. LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL EASILY RETURN TO ABOVE NORMALS WITH SOME SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA LOWER DESERT HIGHS TOPPING 100
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
CA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET
STREAM WINDS...AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM MEXICO...WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT OF SEVERE SFC WIND GUSTS
AND POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL...MAINLY FROM 14Z THROUGH 20Z TODAY. CIGS
MAINLY 6 TO 8 THSD AGL. FROM 20Z MON TO 03Z TUE...THE CHANCE OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DECREASE...WITH CIGS LIFTING TO 8 TO 10 THSD
AGL.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CA TODAY.
THROUGH 20Z MON...CIGS BECOMG 8 TO 10 THSD AGL WITH ISOLATED SHWRS
AND TSTMS. FROM 20Z MON THROUGH 03Z TUE. CLDS BECOMING SCT TO BKN 8
TO 10 THSD AGL WITH ISOLD SHWRS. GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10
KNOTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. GENERALLY LIGHT
WIND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE...
EXCEPT NEAR 35 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
GOOD RECOVERY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
249 AM MST MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA. DECREASING MOISTURE AND CLEARING SKIES
ARE EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY CENTERED OVER
LOS ANGELES EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WE HAVE HAD A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO
THE FIFTIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
REDEVELOPING PERSISTENTLY TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX IN A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT AREA...BUT THESE STORMS REMAIN WEAK AS CAPE IS VERY
LIMITED. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNDER STRONG UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER SONORA MEXICO...A SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS
CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THERE
IS A DECENT SHOT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA BY 12Z AND THEN INTO THE PHOENIX AREA AROUND 15Z THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LATER THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO BETWEEN 40-60 PERCENT
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TODAY FOR SOME ROTATING AND LONGER
LASTING ORGANIZED STORMS...SO ONCE THE COLDER MID LEVEL AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE MANAGE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
THOUGH STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
UNLESS WE GET TRAINING CELLS.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND DYNAMICALLY
INDUCED VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL START TO WANE
SOMEWHAT. WE WILL STILL HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECTING REDUCED COVERAGE. DAYTIME
HOURS TUESDAY IS LOOKING A BIT MORE INTERESTING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARIZONA AS MODEL GUIDANCE NOW BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
A RESULT...THE COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL END UP DRIFTING INTO WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO
BETWEEN MINUS 14-16C. AS LONG AS THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSOLATION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER GOOD
CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOWER THAN
TODAY DUE TO A DROP OFF IN WIND SHEAR...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW HAIL
PRODUCING STORMS DUE TO THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND HIGHER CAPE.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PICK UP SPEED ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW
CENTER MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INCREASING SUBSIDENT FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE EXITING
LOW WILL LIMIT ANY RESIDUAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. STARTING
THURSDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES RAPIDLY INCREASE HEIGHTS ALOFT
AND LOWER THAN 10 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL START OUT RELATIVELY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 80S TODAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ONCE THE UPPER
LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGING TAKES OVER LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGHS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY. LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL EASILY RETURN TO ABOVE NORMALS WITH SOME SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA LOWER DESERT HIGHS TOPPING 100
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
SCT-BKN CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY AOA 8000FT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AREA-WIDE AFFECTING ALL
TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS ABATE
OVERNIGHT...PICKING UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY RETURN TO LOWER DESERTS OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE NEAR KPHX/KIWA/KSDL AFTER 15Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE TO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. LOWER CIGS
ALSO RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO LOCALLY DROP FOR PERIODS
OF TIME TO 5000FT IN HEAVY SHOWERS/STRONGER STORMS. WIND PROFILES
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH HAIL LIKELY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION...MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...SO LINGERING
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FIRE DISTRICTS
DURING THROUGH THURSDAY. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 20S AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MEYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA. EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
DRIER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MAIN STORY OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS WAS THE TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FORMING ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE PINALENOS...THEN MOVING NNE ACROSS SAFFORD AND
THATCHER. THIS EVENT LASTED ABOUT 3 HOURS...OR FROM ABOUT 330 PM TO
630 PM. LOOKING BACK AT RADAR I COUNTED...AT THE MINIMUM...SIX
STORMS MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE MOSTLY BEEN IN THE 1-2
INCH RANGE. ONE SITE RECORDED AT TEMPERATURE DROP OF 14 DEGREES IN 5
MINUTES WITH THE INITIAL SET OF STORMS. OTHER STORM AREAS TODAY
INCLUDED NE COCHISE COUNTY...PARTS OF GREENLEE COUNTY...AND THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR TUCSON. OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA STORMS WERE
OCCURRING IN GILA COUNTY AND ACROSS THE NM BOOT AREA. ALL OF THESE
STORMS IN THE BEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AREA IN ADVANCE OF STRONG
UPPER LOW THAT WAS NEAR LOS ANGELES THIS EVENING.
AFTER ABOUT AN HOUR RESPITE...TRAINING STORMS RESTARTED FROM SAFFORD
NORTHWEST TO BYLAS. THESE WERE NOW MOVING DUE N INSTEAD OF NNE AS
THE FIRST SET WAS BUT THEY DIDN`T LAST TOO LONG. ADDED PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO THE SAFFORD VALLEY AREA OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BASED MOST OF THE UPDATE ON WHAT THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN SHOWING. THUS EXPECT MOSTLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER...SOME WHICH MAY TRAIN ACROSS ERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE TRICKY PART OF THIS FORECAST IS THAT
THE HRRR IS DEVELOPING A BAND OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER SOUTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND MOVING THEM QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS SANTA
CRUZ/PIMA COUNTIES NORTH INTO PINAL AND MARICOPA COUNTIES BETWEEN 4-
6 AM. MIGHT BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WHICH AT THIS TIME IS RATHER HARD TO PICK
OUT ON THE LAYERED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...APPROACHING THE AREA.
INCREASED ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE SO CAL UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/00Z. SCT TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS 6-10 KFT
WITH ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA FROM KTUS AND KOLS EAST THRU 05/16Z. EAST
WINDS 5-15 KTS ACROSS COCHISE...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES WITH
SOUTH WIND TO 10 KTS ELSEWHERE. AFT 05/16Z SCT-BKN 6-10 KFT AND
ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WITH GREATEST CHANCES FROM KTUS EASTWARD.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AFT 05/16Z AT 12-18 KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN MONDAY
THEN LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN
MODERATING LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH MONDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO
ARIZONA BY TUESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND BRING WARMER DRY WEATHER...WITH VERY WARM
TO HOT WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED AT MID-EVENING...WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTH PART OF THE INLAND EMPIRE TO CAJON
PASS. ONE LIGHTNING STRIKE WAS DETECTED HERE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS ANOTHER VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW WAS APPROACHING THE COAST...AND THAT GAVE ONE-
QUARTER TO NEAR ONE-HALF INCH IN COASTAL PARTS OF SANTA BARBARA AND
VENTURA COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PASSAGE OF THE VORT LOBE SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
CLOUD-TOP COOLING TO HELP ENHANCE THE PRECIP...AND BOTH HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF SHOW SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AMOUNTS IN ORANGE COUNTY...WESTERN
SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND PARTS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OVER ONE INCH...THOUGH WITH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE
PRECIP...AMOUNTS WILL VARY WIDELY OVER SHORT DISTANCES...SO THE
AVERAGE SHOULD BE ONE-HALF INCH OR A LITTLE LESS. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LOCAL STREET FLOODING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...THOUGH NAM/GFS SHOW CAPE
VALUES TOO LOW FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SO MOST LIKELY THAT WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST. BY AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
WILL BE OVER SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW STARTS TO EXIT...AND INSTABILITY
DECREASES.
THAT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT
SOUTH AS THE PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO CALIFORNIA.
THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MINIMAL
MARINE LAYER STRATUS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE GRADUALLY...WITH WIDESPREAD 90S IN THE VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY...AND REACHING SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN 5 MILES OF THE COAST BY
SATURDAY. THE PATTERN LOOKS STABLE...SO THE HEAT SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
050300Z...SCT-BKN25-035 WITH MERGING LYRS TO 12000 FT MSL WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS LOWERING TO
015-020 AND VIS 1-3SM IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...MTNS OBSCD IN CLOUDS AND SHRA THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS.
DESERTS...SCT-BKN080-100 THROUGH MONDAY. WEST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH AND BLO MOUNTAIN PASSES INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
800 PM...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS TO
20 KT IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST
WINDS 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1226 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WITH VERY HIGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. EXPECT DRYING
TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE 2348Z AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 430 AM. THIS
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT
FOR EARTHEN DAM BREAKS. NUMEROUS ROADS REMAIN CLOSED THROUGHOUT
THE REGION. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION...
UPDATE 22Z THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED IN THE CSRA.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGEST MUCH LOWER HOURLY RAIN RATES OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO DROP WATCH FOR THE AUGUSTA METRO
AREA AND REST OF THE CSRA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN FL WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW PUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL SC COAST THROUGH THE MIDLANDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS WITH
FLOODING OCCURRING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AT 20Z...THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...ALTHOUGH HOURLY RAIN RATES ARE A LITTLE LOWER.
RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWEST AND MAINLY AFFECT THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS.
SITUATION WHICH CONTINUES TO UNFOLD HAS REACHED CRITICAL
LEVELS...SCEMD HAS ISSUED A CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE URGING
EVERYONE TO REMAIN AT A SAFE AND DRY LOCATION AND ONLY LEAVE IF
TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.
OTHER CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. COMBINED WITH THE
SATURATED SOILS THIS WILL RESULT IN TREES BEING BLOWN
DOWN...INCLUDING ACROSS ROADWAYS AND INTO POWERLINES. NUMEROUS
TREES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED BLOWN DOWN DUE TO THE SATURATED
SOILS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAIN
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECT AT MOST 1 TO 2 INCHES
ADDITIONAL. LESS QPF TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BUT THE MODELS INDICATE LESS FORCING AND QPF. THE MODELS DEPICT
THE H5 LOW CONTOURS BECOME CONFLUENT WITH THE H85 JET BACKING
FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHING FROM 40 TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS
MONDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHEAST PART. RUNOFF FROM THE EXTREME RAIN EVENT SHOULD STILL BE
AN ISSUE AND SOME AREA RIVERS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIVER FLOODING SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH A
SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
LIGHT TO MODERATE BAND OF RAIN ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO IFR RANGE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN RAINFALL...POSSIBLY
LOWER AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATER
TODAY BECOMING SCATTERED BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY
VFR. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS.
WINDS ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS VSBYS TO
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
315 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Main short-term forecast concern will be amount of cloud cover and
its impact on high temperatures today. 07z/2am IR satellite imagery
shows low clouds persisting along/west of the Illinois River...while
skies have become mostly clear further east across the remainder of
the area. Meanwhile...low clouds are re-developing upstream across
northern sections of Illinois and Indiana. With high pressure
anchored from Lake Superior into the Central Plains...E/NE low-level
flow around the high will tend to advect the cloudiness back into
the KILX CWA over the next few hours. Based on satellite timing
tools and latest HRRR guidance...am expecting overcast conditions to
exist along/northwest of a Springfield to Paris line by dawn.
Further southeast...conditions will remain mostly clear with only
high clouds streaming across the sky. NAM/GFS forecast soundings
and HRRR all suggest low clouds will gradually dissipate across most
of the area by midday...however quite a bit of mid/high cloud cover
will remain. End result will be a partly to mostly cloudy day
across the northern two-thirds of the CWA...with mostly sunny skies
along/south of I-70. A fairly robust temperature gradient will
develop across the area depending on how much cloud cover
persists...with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s
northwest of the Illinois River where conditions will remain
cloudiest...to the upper 70s along/south of I-70 where much more
sunshine will prevail.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Persistent low-level moisture will be slow to depart the region as
surface high remains in place along the Mississippi River. Thanks
to continued E/NE flow around the high and a weak upper-level
disturbance...quite a bit of cloudiness will stick around through
Tuesday. Once the high gradually slides further east and winds
begin to shift to a more southerly direction...much more sunshine
will be noted by Wednesday. Resulting high temperatures will
generally be in the lower to middle 70s on Tuesday...rising into the
upper 70s to around 80 by Wednesday.
Cold front is still expected to swing through central Illinois later
in the week...with the 00z Oct 5 models speeding up passage of the
front by about 6-12 hours. Due to faster approach...have included
chance PoPs for showers/isolated thunder further east to the I-57
corridor during the day Thursday...with the best chance for showers
across the entire area still slated for Thursday night. While the
GFS shows the boundary completely clearing the CWA by early Friday
morning...ECMWF remains a bit slower so have lingered low chance
PoPs for showers along/south of I-70 into Friday. Once front
passes, temperatures will drop into the 60s for both Friday and
Saturday.
After that...upper heights will once again rise markedly across the
Midwest early next week resulting in another warming trend. Both
the GFS and ECMWF show 850mb temps rising into the 20-22C range by
Monday, which will likely lead to high temperatures reaching the
upper 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
The east to west clearing of MVFR clouds stalled earlier this
evening along I-55, but has begun westward progress away from SPI
to BMI in the last couple of hours. High res models continue to
indicate re-development and expansion of MVFR clouds in NE
Illinois and eventually southwest toward SPI and DEC, including
CMI. The HRRR shows MVFR/IFR clouds developing N of a line from
Shelbyville to Paris. The NAM is also pessimistic with low
clouds, but the GFS only has PIA in the MVFR cloud category
overnight. The NAM and GFS both show IFR fog at all TAF sites,
which seems possible. Have included IFR vis only at BMI for now,
with MVFR fog at the other terminals. The NAM and HRRR hold onto
MVFR clouds until mid-day tomorrow, then go VFR. Have included
VFR clouds and vis as early as 15z for SPI and DEC, with 16z at
CMI, and 18z at PIA/BMI.
Winds will remain N-NE 4-8kt overnight, and remain NE at less
than 10kt the rest of the TAF period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
The 00z ILX sounding shows relatively high moisture content below
700 mb across central IL. The clearing that has developed across
the southeast half of our forecast area will likely see some low
clouds redevelop after midnight. The HRRR and RAP models show
clouds surging and developing from NE to SW across our eastern
counties. Updated the sky grids to try to project the expected
trends overnight. Cloud cover will play a role in low temps, with
a few areas in eastern IL that remain clear possibly cooling
below forecast lows. Will reduce lows only a degree or so to
account for that concern.
The remainder of the forecast looks reasonable. Updated info will
be available shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
Upper low storm system over the southeastern this afternoon still
driving the moisture into the Midwest. Although the low and mid
level clouds persisted through the overnight, a wide swath of drying
spread through Ohio and Indiana and is slowly eroding the eastern
side of the cloud shield. Tonight`s forecast centers on how far
those clouds can erode before sunset and llvl moisture gets trapped
below the inversion. Clear areas to the east may end up seeing more
in the way of patchy fog and cooler temps, but a lot will hinge on
the xover temps and how far back to the E/SE the stratus redevelops
tonight. Have trended the forecast to the HRRR which has been
handling the erosion of the clouds quite well.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
Mostly clouds skies will still be lingering over most of central and
parts of eastern IL tomorrow, as the upper level low pressure area
in southeast US finally shifts out to sea. This will allow high
pressure ridge to build into the area for the first half of the
week. Winds will remain northeast but begin to decrease in speed
tomorrow and Tuesday, and then become more light and variable for
Wednesday. Dry weather is expected through the short-term period,
and with, hopefully, more sunshine than today, temps should quickly
warm into the 70s for tomorrow through Wednesday.
The next major weather system to bring pcpn to the area will be
later in the week, Thursday through Friday afternoon. The GFS and
ECMWF have come into better alignment with the timing of the front,
and it should move through the area Thursday night. So am expecting
light pcpn Thur morning in the west/northwest, with it then
spreading east during the day, and then continuing across the CWA
Thursday evening. Pcpn should begin ending from west to east late
Thursday night and then continue through Friday morning. Temps will
be above normal for Thursday, but once the front and pcpn move
through, temps will fall back into the 60s across most of the area.
This, however, will temporary as 70s should return for the end of
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
The east to west clearing of MVFR clouds stalled earlier this
evening along I-55, but has begun westward progress away from SPI
to BMI in the last couple of hours. High res models continue to
indicate re-development and expansion of MVFR clouds in NE
Illinois and eventually southwest toward SPI and DEC, including
CMI. The HRRR shows MVFR/IFR clouds developing N of a line from
Shelbyville to Paris. The NAM is also pessimistic with low
clouds, but the GFS only has PIA in the MVFR cloud category
overnight. The NAM and GFS both show IFR fog at all TAF sites,
which seems possible. Have included IFR vis only at BMI for now,
with MVFR fog at the other terminals. The NAM and HRRR hold onto
MVFR clouds until mid-day tomorrow, then go VFR. Have included
VFR clouds and vis as early as 15z for SPI and DEC, with 16z at
CMI, and 18z at PIA/BMI.
Winds will remain N-NE 4-8kt overnight, and remain NE at less
than 10kt the rest of the TAF period.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1207 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS.
STRATUS ADVANCED WEST TO EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT HAS RETREATED BACK EASTWARD SOMEWHAT BY
AFTERNOON...SEEMING TO STOP WHEN IT REACHED DEEPER CLOUD SHIELD. WRF
ARW...RAP AND HRRR HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON CLOUD TRENDS LAST
NIGHT...AND STILL APPEAR TO THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE FOLLOWED
INTO TONIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND THEN BEGIN
MOVING BACK NORTH AND WEST IN WEAK 0-1KM FLOW AS IT SHIFTS FROM NE
TO SE BY LATER THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD REACH ALL BUT FAR NW
SECTIONS TOWARD SUNRISE AND THEN EXPECT STRATUS TO STALL BY THAT
TIME WITH 0-1KM MEAN WIND DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.
TEMPS WILL FALL LITTLE UNDER CURRENT THICKER CLOUD COVER SO HAVE
MINS LESS THAN FIVE DEGREES FROM CURRENT OBS THERE. FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST DIURNAL RANGE MAY BE GREATER WITH A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING DURING THE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THESE AREAS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DURATION OF CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AND EXTENDED WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AS IOWA REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...SUFFICIENT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED TODAY TO
KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS STATE...AND MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
WARMING...AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS THAN GOING. HOWEVER...WITH 850MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO WARM
BY MID WEEK...WILL SEE WARMING TREND TO TEMPS...AND IF CLOUDS
CLEAR WITH MIXING MAY BE TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR WARMEST GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL SIMILARLY BE AFFECTED BY CLOUDS...MAY BE TOO WARM GIVEN
AMOUNT OF COOLING THE PAST NIGHTS...THOUGH HAVE FAVORED CONTINUED
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS.
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME MID WEEK AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS SW US BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AS WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WITH SYSTEM...THOUGH ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BEST CHANCES COMING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTH. SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH QUICKLY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AGAIN BEHIND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST WITH HIGH
FRIDAY...THOUGH ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WAA WILL RETURN BEHIND
RETREATING HIGH AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN FOR WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON...THOUGH TIMING OF WHEN
THE STRATUS FILLS IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. STRATUS DECK SHOULD LIFT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE STATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SKOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
318 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SPREAD
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINING OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER
LOW MOVING OFF OF THE FLORIDA COAST. THAT SAME IMAGERY INDICATED A
SMALL AREA OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT...WHERE THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
WHILE THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED MINIMAL DISCERNABLE
ECHOES AS OF THIS WRITING EXCEPT TOWARD KCTZ AND KGSB...OBSERVATIONS
SHOW AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW A BAND OF VERY COOL
CLOUD TOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...OVER PARTS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS FORECASTS THE GREATEST 700MB UVV FOR THE DAY...JUST SOUTH
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OR IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHERN BORDERS OF
THE COUNTIES FROM SCOTLAND TO SAMPSON. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GFS
FORECASTS A MODEST RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 40KT 500MB JET
AROUND THE UPPER LOW...AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENCE.
850MB THETA-E VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
A GRADUAL DECLINE FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...RAPIDLY DRYING
TONIGHT. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH GRADUAL DRYING DEPICTED IN
THOSE SOUNDINGS FROM LATE MORNING IN THE TRIAD TO THE MID-EVENING
TOWARD KFAY. THINK THAT LOW-LEVEL DRIZZLE AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS
LIKELY THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING...WITH THE CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE RAP
AND NAM ARE FASTER THAN THE GFS IN DIMINISHING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...IT IS INTERESTING HOW THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OR
SO OF THE HRRR WRF ARE MUCH MORE BULLISH ON LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGH IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH INTO THE EVENING FOR THE FOUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LIFT AND DIFFLUENCE OVERHEAD.
THINKING IS THAT IF THERE ARE ANY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
THEY WOULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THOSE AREAS...POSSIBLY TO AREAS
CREEPING IN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KCTZ TO KMEB. OVERNIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE A CLEARING TREND...BUT LATE TONIGHT THE GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD KFAY
AND KRWI...SUCH THAT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE TO END THE NIGHT AND START TUESDAY.
WITH RECENT WIND GUSTS NEAR KINT TO JUST OVER 30KTS...AND 925MB
WIND FORECASTS THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z OF 35KT OR GREATER ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH LOWEST LEVEL MIXING...WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA TO JUST
BEFORE 18Z. THEN...THE 925MB WINDS SHOULD HAVE SUBSIDED SOME OVER
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXING. DO NOT
TYPICALLY LIKE TO PIECEMEAL ADVISORIES DIMINISHING BUT THE
CONSENSUS OF EVIDENCE SUGGESTS AS THE 925MB WIND DIMINISHES...THE
GUSTINESS OF THE WIND SHOULD RELAX IN THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR PRIOR TO
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOWS UP SOMEWHAT IN THE LOW-
LEVEL DEPICTION OF MIXING ON THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. AS SUCH...
WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY TO AROUND U.S. 1 TO 4 PM AND LEAVE
IT TO 8 PM TOWARD INTERSTATE 95. HIGHS TODAY IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE MAIN ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. AS NOTED
ABOVE...THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI. WILL NOTE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE WHERE THE 925MB MOISTURE IS HIGH
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. ANY LOW
CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD LIFT INTO CU BASED ON THE GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT TYPE OF
DAY THAN THOSE RECENTLY WITH PERIODS OF SUNSHINE. THE GFS SUGGESTS
SOME HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD FILTER SOME
LATE AFTERNOON SUN IF IT VERIFIES. MIXING SUGGESTS A FEW GUSTS IN
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE TEENS KNOTS IN MOST
PLACES...POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF NEAR 20KT GUSTS TOWARD KRWI AND
KFAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO NOTE A WIND IMPACT CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AS A PERISTENT UPPER SHORT WAVE MIGRATES AROSS
UPPER MID WEST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NUDGED EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO SPILL SOUTH DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDINESS AS THE UPPER FLOW
FLATTENS AND TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. TEMPS WILL EDGE
UPWARDS WITH HEIGHT RISES AND INSOLATION...LOW AND MID 70S WITH MINS
FROM 55 TO 60.
THE GFS HAS SPED UP THE TRANSLATION OF ITS MORE SHARPLY DEFINED
UPPER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...AND THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WOULD BE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AS
OPPOSED TO ABOUT A 12 HOUR DELAY ON THE 00Z ECMWF. REGARDLESS...
MOISTURE ADVECTION PRIOR TO THE FRONT IS LIMITED AND WOULD EXPECT
ONLY A FEW PREFRONTAL SHOWERS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING
THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS IN THE
WEST FRIDAY EVENING...AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S AGAIN FRIDAY...WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MILD COOL AIR
ADVECTION HOLDING TEMPS IN THE SEASONABLE 70 TO 75 RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS...WITH A SMATTERING OF LOW MVFR
CEILINGS...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY TODAY.
GRADUALLY...DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY THE END OF THE
06Z VALID TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE...WITH THE FREQUENCY AND
SPEEDS OF THE GUSTINESS ALSO DIMINISHING SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AROUND 1500FT TO NEAR 40KT NEAR
KFAY TO ABOUT 03Z BEFORE THOSE VALUES DIMINISH TO 30KT BY 06Z. AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES...NOTICEABLE SURFACE GUSTINESS SHOULD WANE BY
SUNSET ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND DURING THE
EVENING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND TOWARD KFAY.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LOW CLOUDS TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY
AND MAY RESULT IN SOME PROBABILITY OF A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
AND SHOWERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. LOW CLOUDS
COULD LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...IF THE GFS MOISTURE
FORECAST VERIFIES.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-
042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>010-
024>026-040-041-073>076-083-084.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ021>023-038-
039.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
414 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MOST MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING PERSISTENCE/STRENGTH OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH S/WV TROUGH LIFTING NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HRRR IS THE PRIMARY MODEL USED FOR THE FIRST 6
TO 12 HOURS FORECAST AS IT IS HANDLING LIGHT PRECIP MUCH BETTER.
HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE
DURATION OF MOISTENING WILL RESIDE AND HAVE BETTER CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING RAIN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHTNING BUT THERE WILL BE
MUCH MORE COVERAGE OF PRECIP THAT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR EAST AS WICHITA FALLS...PAULS VALLEY...OKC
METRO...AND STILLWATER THIS MORNING AND INTO AFTERNOON NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-40. LOWERED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH IF PRECIP
LINGERS LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN EXPECTED.
DRY AND WARMER PERIOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SW U.S. UPPER LOW AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH. GFS HAS COME AROUND TO ECM LINE OF
THINKING WRT MENTIONED UPPER LOW. THIS WILL YIELD OVERALL LOWER
CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT NEAR THE MENTIONED FRONT. THIS FRONT HANDLED SIMILARLY BY
ALL MODELS AND SHOULD MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN
ACTIVITY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW. FAIRLY
QUICKLY WARM-UP EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH
BUILDING RIDGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 55 82 60 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 73 53 83 58 / 70 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 55 84 60 / 20 0 0 0
GAGE OK 70 53 81 58 / 60 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 71 52 80 57 / 30 0 0 0
DURANT OK 79 56 85 61 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1113 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND NOSING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH MOIST ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RISING OVER THE BOUNDARY. THE MID-LEVELS ARE NOT SATURATED
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP JUDGING FROM 12Z SOUNDINGS...BUT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXISTS BELOW 800MB FOR A LOW OVERCAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE OVERCAST LIES JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. CLOUD TRENDS AND
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN DRAPED
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND EVER SO SLIGHTLY LIFTS NORTHWEST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE SATURATED LAYER
WILL GROW THROUGH 700MB ALONG AND EAST OF THE FOX VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE BROKEN TO OVERCAST WITH CLOUD BASES
THAT LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THOUGH OVER N-C AND CENTRAL WI. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE DURING THE MORNING SINCE
THE FRONT HARDLY BUDGES. BUT THEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PICK UP
MOMENTUM TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE
SOME CLEARING TAKE PLACE OVER N-C AND CENTRAL WI WI. TOUGH TO SEE
MUCH CLEARING FURTHER EAST THOUGH. WARMER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PCPN CHANCES AND TIMING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE NEXT
WORK WEEK. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SAG SOUTH ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MAKE
A PUSH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK...
A DRY FCST IS ANTICIPATED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDS NGT
AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING LATE WEDS NGT...AFFECTING THE
ENTIRE REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN PULLING OUT THURSDAY EVENING.
STRONG DYNAMICS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PCPN AMOUNTS OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...AS WELL AS ISOLD/SCT TSTMS. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY...BUT SUBSEQUENT FCSTS MAY NEED TO RAISE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL.
ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHWOODS...MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE PLEASANT WEATHER WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MVFR CIGS WITH AN AREA OF IFR CIGS FROM CENTRAL WI TO
THE FOX CITIES WILL DETERIORATE TO MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY WORK
INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
ON MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FLOW BECOMES LIGHT WEST. CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL IFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG...BUT BEYOND THE NEXT TAF
ISSUANCE PERIOD.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1143 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE
RANGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS (ZONES 116 AND 117). WYDOT SENSORS
FROM BUFORD TO THE SUMMIT SHOW VIS OF 300-500 FT...SO GETTING SOME
PRETTY DENSE FOG. VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNRISE. HRRR SHOWS FOG SPREADING EASTWARD TO CHEYENNE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...THUS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
MONITOR OBS AROUND CHEYENNE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR RAPID CITY
TO NORTH OF TORRINGTON TO NEAR LARAMIE THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS BLANKETING SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
UPSLOPING SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE. A LITTLE WARMER TODAY OVER
SATURDAY WITH 1 PM REPORTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO THE UPPER 50S OUT BY RAWLINS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR AREA
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER REPEAT OF FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE. LOWER LEVEL WINDS DO BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER
12Z MONDAY...THEN BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY LATE MORNING. THINKING THAT
FOG/STRATUS WILL BREAK UP TOMORROW MORNING INSTEAD OF HANGING IN
LIKE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT OF LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. VERY SLOW MOVEMENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
OF THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING/NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. BY MONDAY EVENING THOUGH...WE BEGIN TO
SEE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING/WESTERN COLORADO. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT WEST POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...BUT MORE LIKELY MONDAY EVENING.
DIFFERENCES IN LOW MOVEMENT TUESDAY WITH THE GFS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE LOW. GFS SHOWING LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. SHOULD
THE GFS SOLUTION HOLD TRUE...MANY AREAS WOULD SEE WETTING RAINS
HERE IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH SHOW THE I-80
CORRIDOR PICKING UP THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DID MAINTAIN OR
INCREASE POPS FOR TUESDAY WITH THIS AGREEMENT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET DAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO OUR EAST. PERHAPS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THOUGH WITH LIMITED LOW
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
THURSDAY...DRY AND COOLER IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
FRIDAY...CONTINUED DRY WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WARMING TREND BEGINS AS THE AIRMASS MODERATES.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS A RIDGE ALOFT MOVES
OVERHEAD AND THEN WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY...INDUCING
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LEE TROUGHING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SITES TO THE EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH 12-15Z. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AT CYS AFTER AROUND 09Z. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING MONDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL MOSTLY BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
OVER THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG FOR MANY AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
WESTERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZF
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
845 AM MST MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SLIDING
SOUTHEASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA. DECREASING MOISTURE AND
CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED STARTING WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION... STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN MORE OR LESS
IN PLACE OVER FAR SRN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...A LOOK AT THE 12Z
PLOT DATA INDICATED VIRTUALLY NO HEIGHT FALLS AT ALL ACROSS ARIZONA.
H5 HEIGHTS WERE DOWN TO 567DM NEAR THE LOW CENTER WITH VALUES AROUND
575DM IN CENTRAL AZ...AND WITH THIS MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL LOWER INTO THE 80S. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA...WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A MODEST DIFLUENT PROFILE ALOFT. WEAK
DISTURBANCES CONTINUED TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE MAIN LOW...HELPING TO
TRIGGER OCCASIONAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH THEN WOULD RACE
QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ONE SUCH AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS MOVED QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND INTO SRN GILA COUNTY WITHIN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AS OF 830 AM RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS TO
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ AND AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE STORMS
THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. IN FACT...THE DAY
1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ISSUED BY SPC PUTS MUCH OF ARIZONA INCLUDING
SOUTH CENTRAL AZ UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THERE IS
LESS OF A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS
AND INTO SERN CA...GIVEN WEAKER WINDS ALOFT/FORCING AND LOWER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY VALUES...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY/WEATHER/POP TRENDS AND LOOK TO
BE IN GOOD SHAPE. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY CENTERED OVER
LOS ANGELES EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WE HAVE HAD A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN
INTO THE FIFTIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
REDEVELOPING PERSISTENTLY TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX IN A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT AREA...BUT THESE STORMS REMAIN WEAK AS CAPE IS VERY
LIMITED. AM EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNDER STRONG UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER SONORA MEXICO...A SMALL COMPLEX OF STORMS
CONTINUES TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS RIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THERE
IS A DECENT SHOT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA BY 12Z AND THEN INTO THE PHOENIX AREA AROUND 15Z THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LATER THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO BETWEEN 40-60 PERCENT
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TODAY FOR SOME ROTATING AND LONGER
LASTING ORGANIZED STORMS...SO ONCE THE COLDER MID LEVEL AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF WE MANAGE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
THOUGH STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT
UNLESS WE GET TRAINING CELLS.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND DYNAMICALLY
INDUCED VERTICAL ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL START TO WANE
SOMEWHAT. WE WILL STILL HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BUT EXPECTING REDUCED COVERAGE. DAYTIME
HOURS TUESDAY IS LOOKING A BIT MORE INTERESTING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARIZONA AS MODEL GUIDANCE NOW BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTER THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
A RESULT...THE COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL END UP DRIFTING INTO WEST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO
BETWEEN MINUS 14-16C. AS LONG AS THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSOLATION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
HIGHER CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR ANOTHER GOOD
CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LOWER THAN
TODAY DUE TO A DROP OFF IN WIND SHEAR...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW HAIL
PRODUCING STORMS DUE TO THE COLDER AIR ALOFT AND HIGHER CAPE.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO PICK UP SPEED ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW
CENTER MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
INCREASING SUBSIDENT FLOW AND DRYING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE EXITING
LOW WILL LIMIT ANY RESIDUAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. STARTING
THURSDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES RAPIDLY INCREASE HEIGHTS ALOFT
AND LOWER THAN 10 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL START OUT RELATIVELY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 80S TODAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ONCE THE UPPER
LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGING TAKES OVER LATER THIS
WEEK...HIGHS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY. LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND HIGHS WILL EASILY RETURN TO ABOVE NORMALS WITH SOME SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA LOWER DESERT HIGHS TOPPING 100
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION... SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
CA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET
STREAM WINDS...AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM MEXICO...WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A THREAT OF SEVERE SFC WIND GUSTS
AND POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL...MAINLY FROM 14Z THROUGH 20Z TODAY. CIGS
MAINLY 6 TO 8 THSD AGL. FROM 20Z MON TO 03Z TUE...THE CHANCE OF
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DECREASE...WITH CIGS LIFTING TO 8 TO 10 THSD
AGL.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CA TODAY.
THROUGH 20Z MON...CIGS BECOMING 8 TO 10 THSD AGL WITH ISOLATED SHWRS
AND TSTMS. FROM 20Z MON THROUGH 03Z TUE. CLDS BECOMING SCT TO BKN 8
TO 10 THSD AGL WITH ISOLD SHWRS. GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10
KNOTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. GENERALLY LIGHT
WIND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE...
EXCEPT NEAR 35 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
GOOD RECOVERY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS TUCSON AZ
530 AM MST MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AFTER A
FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF TUCSON
TODAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES DIRECTLY INTO THE AREA...MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS...AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE...THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING HAS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 1 INCH. DECENT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR FOR OUR AREA WITH BRN AT
52 M^2/S^2. THE CURRENT CONVECTION IS ALONG A GOOD SHEAR AXIS
THROUGH SANTA CRUZ AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTIES...NORTHWARD THROUGH
PINAL AND GILA COUNTIES. THESE FACTORS WOULD ARGUE FOR A BUSIER DAY
THROUGH EASTERN PIMA COUNTY AND THE GREATER TUCSON AREA THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. HOWEVER...THE HRRR ROTATES (WE BELIEVE
CORRECTLY) THIS MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR AREA INTO GRAHAM COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST CIRA LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY FOR 700-500 HPA IS PUSHING DRIER AIR ABOVE H7 IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THIS IS HINTED AT BY THE MORNING SOUNDING
WHERE THERE ARE SPIKES REPRESENTING THE ONSET OF THIS DRYING SHOWING
UP NEAR H7 AND H6. SO WE ARE STANDING PAT FOR NOW WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR CONVECTION IN THE TUCSON METRO
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
SWODY1 BY SPC...HOWEVER WE WOULD EMPHASIZE AREAS EAST AND NORTH OF
TUCSON FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ESPECIALLY GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PINAL COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALL THE PIECES ARE IN PLACE...NOW
IT`S JUST A TIMING ISSUE. THE STRONG LOW HAS MADE IT`S WAY INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND HAS LOST MOST OF IT`S HIGHER
LATITUDE SUPPORT AS EXPECTED. WE WILL SEE A SLOW WOBBLE EASTWARD
TODAY WITH A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE H7 AND LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUING TO IMPORT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE
CONDITIONAL RISK IS ELEVATED FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DECENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING MAY INHIBIT OVERALL COVERAGE FOR PART OF
THE AREA TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 3/4 AND 1 INCH IN
EASTERN AREAS...HOWEVER SOME TEMPORARY MID LEVEL DRYING WRAPPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TEND TO LIMIT COVERAGE IN
CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING EASTERN PIMA COUNTY AND THE
GREATER TUCSON AREA. THE BEST COVERAGE COMES TOGETHER WITH THE
INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...INCLUDING
GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE COUNTIES.
AS THE LOW SLOWLY PUSHES TOWARD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE EVEN BETTER CONDITIONS FOR INCREASED
STORM COVERAGE. A POSSIBLE SWEET SPOT IN TIMING IS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHERE JET DYNAMICS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW...A LITTLE DAYTIME
HEATING...AND A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENT FIELD COME TOGETHER
FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR OUR PART OF THE
STATE.
THIS CUTOFF ACTUALLY BEGINS TO REACT TO THE STRONG RIDGE WEST OF THE
AREA LATER THIS WEEK. A SLOW DROP INTO NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST
MEXICO KEEPS IT AROUND FOR DAYS AND DAYS AS IT SLOWLY FILLS.
INTERESTING THAT BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE KEEPING IT IN PROXIMITY
THROUGH 240 HOURS. SO SLOW WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS REBOUND AND SOME
DRYING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS HANGING AROUND MAINLY MOUNTAIN AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/12Z.
SCT TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS 6-10 KFT WITH ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA FROM KTUS
AND KOLS EAST THRU 05/16Z. EAST WINDS 5-15 KTS ACROSS
COCHISE...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES WITH SOUTH WIND TO 10 KTS
ELSEWHERE. AFT 05/16Z SCT-BKN 6-10 KFT AND ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA
WITH GREATEST CHANCES FROM EAST OF KTUS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP AFT 05/16Z AT 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN MONDAY
THEN LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN
MODERATING LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/RASMUSSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1112 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER
LOW THAT WAS OVER THE REGION DURING THE PAST WEEKEND IS FINALLY
BEGINNING TO PIVOT OFF TO THE EAST. THE LOW CENTER IS NOW OFF THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...ALTHOUGH THE LARGER CIRCULATION AND
MOISTURE PLUME ON WV IMAGERY REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
EVEN STILL...OUR HEIGHTS ARE BEGINNING TO CLIMB AND THE MAIN COLD
POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST. ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN OVERALL IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
LATER TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW...ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL CHILLY AIR ALOFT IS STILL PROMOTING
A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ASHORE OFF THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...MAINLY FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THE MORNING 12Z
KTBW SOUNDING SHOWED A WARM MOIST PROFILE BELOW 800MB UNDERNEATH
A STABLE CAPPING LAYER. THIS PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 6-8KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE...AND WE DID SEE SOME
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AROUND FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE THREAT FOR
DRIZZLE IS NOW ENDING AS DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS TO TAKE OVER THE
BOUNDARY LAYER PROCESSES.
SOME AREAS ARE SEEING SUNNY BREAKS...BUT OVERALL WILL CALL
CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLOUDY AROUND THE REGION THIS LATE MORNING.
THOSE AREAS SEEING SOME SUN WILL LIKELY CLOUD IN WITH CU/STRAT-CU
WITH TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS ABOVE...WE CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH A
FEW SCT SHOWERS MIGRATING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF THIS MIDDAY...AND
KEEPING A 30-40% CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST FROM PINELLAS
SOUTHWARD FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
THE FURTHER WE GET INTO THE DAY...THE FURTHER EAST THE UPPER LOW
WILL PIVOT...THE OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD LESSEN...AND TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARMING A FEW MORE DEGREES ALOFT. ALL THIS WILL HELP TO
DISCOURAGE FURTHER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. BETTER CONTINUED INSTABILITY
DUE TO THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD A DRY FORECAST FOR OUR
LAND ZONES.
LOTS OF CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...AND MEAGER DIURNAL MIXING
WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE "COOLER SIDE". LOOKING FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S...WITH PERHAPS SOME MID 80S READINGS
DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...IF ENOUGH SUNNY BREAKS CAN
DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD AND BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA BY DAWN
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT LIGHT NORTHERLY OVER ALL AREAS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS TROUGH. SREF GUIDANCE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD FAVOR
SOME LOWER CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FUTURE GUIDANCE RUNS FOR INCLUSION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS INTO I-4 CORRIDOR TAFS. LOW TEMPERATURES BY LATE
TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S NORTH...AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH. LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PINELLAS
COUNTY AND THE ISLAND AROUND CHARLOTTE HARBOR ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
IN THE 70S WITH FLOW OFF THE WATER.
TUESDAY...
A QUIET AND SEASONABLE EARLY OCTOBER DAY IS FORECAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE
EXITED THE AREA. ARE AREA WILL BE LEFT BEHIND WITHIN A VERY BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO "NOSE"
IN FROM THE NORTH. AFTER MORNING CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY NORTH)...WE
SHOULD SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE TO THE SOUTH OF I-4 IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OLD/STALLED SURFACE TROUGH...HOWEVER...
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE 10% OR LESS FOR MOST SPOTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LOOK SEASONABLE WITH LOWER/MID 80S NORTH...AND
MIDDLE 80S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - NEXT SUNDAY)...
A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTHWARD DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY...AND WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN ITS WAKE...A RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG
WEAK SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN
EAST OF I-75.
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS WEAK MID LEVEL RIDING BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE GULF...AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW PERSIST. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GET A BETTER
SEABREEZE GOING...ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LONG RANGE MODELS THEN DEPICT A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT
SOUTHEASTWARD...DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH IT. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...WE MAY SEE INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...RISING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND SCT -SHWRS/-DZ CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR
AREAS OF LOWER CIGS/VIS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL NEED TO WATCH
KTPA/KLAL/KPIE FOR BEST POTENTIAL FOR LATE PERIOD RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT...BECOMING STATIONARY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS ON TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH THEN
WASHES OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY MID-
WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH AFTER TODAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE IN THE
FORECAST.
FOG POTENTIAL...AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 83 69 84 70 / 20 0 10 10
FMY 84 69 86 71 / 50 10 10 10
GIF 84 67 85 69 / 10 0 10 10
SRQ 82 68 85 70 / 30 0 0 10
BKV 82 65 83 66 / 10 0 10 10
SPG 81 71 83 73 / 30 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...AUSTIN
DECISION SUPPORT...HUBBARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1030 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY...
WEAK CYCLONE LIFTING UP THE SERN SEABOARD THIS MRNG WILL CARRY A
DEEP COLD POCKET ALONG WITH IT...ALLOWING MID LVL TEMPS TO WARM
DRAMATICALLY THRU THE DAY. LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS H50 TEMPS
WARMING FROM -8C/-9C ALONG THE NE FL COAST TO BTWN -4C/-5C ALONG THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. FURTHERMORE...THE 12Z KXMR/KTBW RAOB SOUNDINGS
REVEALED SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS IN THE H85-H80 LYRS WITH PWAT
VALUES ARND 1.1" AT KXMR...1.4" AT KTBW.
PREVAILING WRLY FLOW ACRS THE PENINSULA WILL ALLOW THE DRY AIR OVER
THE ERN PENINSULA TO ERODE...BUT ANALYSIS SHOWS ONLY THE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT DEEP LYR MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PRECIP.
EVEN THEN...H100-H70 MEAN RH ARND 75PCT AND H85-H50 MEAN RH ARND
50PCT WOULD ONLY SUPPORT ISOLD SHRAS...ESPECIALLY AS MID LVL
VORTICITY DIMINISHES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING CYCLONE.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NOTE FOR COASTAL INTERESTS: A LONG PERIOD (11-SECOND)SWELL FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENT AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 06/12Z
THRU 06/00Z...PREVAILING W/NW SFC WNDS BTWN 7-10KTS WITH VFR CIGS
BTWN FL040-060...THRU 05/16Z AREAS MVFR CIGS BTWN FL015-025 LCL IFR
CIGS BTWN FL006-009...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS S OF KMLB-KGIF.
AFT 06/00Z...PREVAILING N/NW SFC WNDS BTWN 4-7KTS WITH IFR CIGS BTWN
FL006-009 DVLPG N OF KMLB-KISM AFT 06/06Z...LCL LIFR CIGS AOB FL004.
SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS COASTAL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST OBS INDICATE OVERALL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SUFFICIENTLY TO
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT 11AM...ESPECIALLY WITH SFC WRLY WINDS
DIMINISHING TO ARND 10KTS. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AS A 6-7FT ERLY SWELL TRAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE LCL
ATLC THRU THE AFTN...BUOY010 WAS STILL MEASURING 7FT/11SEC SWELLS AS
OF MID MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS AREAWIDE...
ESPECIALLY AS OVER THE NEXT 24HRS A NEW SURGE OF NRLY WINDS/NE
SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN FROM THE CAROLINAS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NE FL COAST.
WILL DELAY ISSUING THE MORNING COASTAL FORECAST UNTIL 11AM TO COINCIDE
WITH THE EXPIRATION OF THE SCA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS BETWEEN 3.04 FT THIS MORNING...
ABOUT 0.24 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN MINOR FLOOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
MORNING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-
60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
&&
$$
FORECAST UPDATE......BRAGAW
AVIATION/IMPACT WX...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
923 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Forecast concerns for today remain with clouds and temperatures.
Latest visible satellite imagery showing a large deck of low
stratus clouds from about Litchfield to Paris northward,
exhibiting very little movement over the last couple hours. Some
higher clouds are now streaming over the stratus as well. Areas of
dense fog across east central Illinois are contracting and
becoming more isolated, and should further erode over the next 1-2
hours. Morning upper-air sounding showing a fairly strong
inversion around 1,000 feet. Forecast soundings off the RAP show
this lifting to around 2,000 feet this afternoon, with 925 mb
humidity plots showing the clouds remaining widespread across at
least the northern third of the forecast area (mainly Rushville-
Danville northward). Have trended temperatures down a degree or
two in that area, but will have to watch for further downward
adjustments if the stratus deck does not start eroding faster in
the next couple hours.
Across the southeast CWA, skies are mostly sunny, but some
increase in clouds on tap as the higher clouds stream in from the
southwest. Temperatures rebounding nicely so far and should reach
into the upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Main short-term forecast concern will be amount of cloud cover and
its impact on high temperatures today. 07z/2am IR satellite imagery
shows low clouds persisting along/west of the Illinois River...while
skies have become mostly clear further east across the remainder of
the area. Meanwhile...low clouds are re-developing upstream across
northern sections of Illinois and Indiana. With high pressure
anchored from Lake Superior into the Central Plains...E/NE low-level
flow around the high will tend to advect the cloudiness back into
the KILX CWA over the next few hours. Based on satellite timing
tools and latest HRRR guidance...am expecting overcast conditions to
exist along/northwest of a Springfield to Paris line by dawn.
Further southeast...conditions will remain mostly clear with only
high clouds streaming across the sky. NAM/GFS forecast soundings
and HRRR all suggest low clouds will gradually dissipate across most
of the area by midday...however quite a bit of mid/high cloud cover
will remain. End result will be a partly to mostly cloudy day
across the northern two-thirds of the CWA...with mostly sunny skies
along/south of I-70. A fairly robust temperature gradient will
develop across the area depending on how much cloud cover
persists...with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s
northwest of the Illinois River where conditions will remain
cloudiest...to the upper 70s along/south of I-70 where much more
sunshine will prevail.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Persistent low-level moisture will be slow to depart the region as
surface high remains in place along the Mississippi River. Thanks
to continued E/NE flow around the high and a weak upper-level
disturbance...quite a bit of cloudiness will stick around through
Tuesday. Once the high gradually slides further east and winds
begin to shift to a more southerly direction...much more sunshine
will be noted by Wednesday. Resulting high temperatures will
generally be in the lower to middle 70s on Tuesday...rising into the
upper 70s to around 80 by Wednesday.
Cold front is still expected to swing through central Illinois later
in the week...with the 00z Oct 5 models speeding up passage of the
front by about 6-12 hours. Due to faster approach...have included
chance PoPs for showers/isolated thunder further east to the I-57
corridor during the day Thursday...with the best chance for showers
across the entire area still slated for Thursday night. While the
GFS shows the boundary completely clearing the CWA by early Friday
morning...ECMWF remains a bit slower so have lingered low chance
PoPs for showers along/south of I-70 into Friday. Once front
passes, temperatures will drop into the 60s for both Friday and
Saturday.
After that...upper heights will once again rise markedly across the
Midwest early next week resulting in another warming trend. Both
the GFS and ECMWF show 850mb temps rising into the 20-22C range by
Monday, which will likely lead to high temperatures reaching the
upper 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
The stratus/fog that is currently over much of central Illinois is
not very well depicted by the current model guidance. Also, the
mid/high level cloudiness is making it hard to determine the full
extent of the stratus. Kept local TAFs IFR through the morning in
most area, gradually rising to MVFR by midday. The low level
inversion that remain in place suggests some redevelopment is
possible again later tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
700 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Main short-term forecast concern will be amount of cloud cover and
its impact on high temperatures today. 07z/2am IR satellite imagery
shows low clouds persisting along/west of the Illinois River...while
skies have become mostly clear further east across the remainder of
the area. Meanwhile...low clouds are re-developing upstream across
northern sections of Illinois and Indiana. With high pressure
anchored from Lake Superior into the Central Plains...E/NE low-level
flow around the high will tend to advect the cloudiness back into
the KILX CWA over the next few hours. Based on satellite timing
tools and latest HRRR guidance...am expecting overcast conditions to
exist along/northwest of a Springfield to Paris line by dawn.
Further southeast...conditions will remain mostly clear with only
high clouds streaming across the sky. NAM/GFS forecast soundings
and HRRR all suggest low clouds will gradually dissipate across most
of the area by midday...however quite a bit of mid/high cloud cover
will remain. End result will be a partly to mostly cloudy day
across the northern two-thirds of the CWA...with mostly sunny skies
along/south of I-70. A fairly robust temperature gradient will
develop across the area depending on how much cloud cover
persists...with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s
northwest of the Illinois River where conditions will remain
cloudiest...to the upper 70s along/south of I-70 where much more
sunshine will prevail.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Persistent low-level moisture will be slow to depart the region as
surface high remains in place along the Mississippi River. Thanks
to continued E/NE flow around the high and a weak upper-level
disturbance...quite a bit of cloudiness will stick around through
Tuesday. Once the high gradually slides further east and winds
begin to shift to a more southerly direction...much more sunshine
will be noted by Wednesday. Resulting high temperatures will
generally be in the lower to middle 70s on Tuesday...rising into the
upper 70s to around 80 by Wednesday.
Cold front is still expected to swing through central Illinois later
in the week...with the 00z Oct 5 models speeding up passage of the
front by about 6-12 hours. Due to faster approach...have included
chance PoPs for showers/isolated thunder further east to the I-57
corridor during the day Thursday...with the best chance for showers
across the entire area still slated for Thursday night. While the
GFS shows the boundary completely clearing the CWA by early Friday
morning...ECMWF remains a bit slower so have lingered low chance
PoPs for showers along/south of I-70 into Friday. Once front
passes, temperatures will drop into the 60s for both Friday and
Saturday.
After that...upper heights will once again rise markedly across the
Midwest early next week resulting in another warming trend. Both
the GFS and ECMWF show 850mb temps rising into the 20-22C range by
Monday, which will likely lead to high temperatures reaching the
upper 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
The stratus/fog that is currently over much of central Illinois is
not very well depicted by the current model guidance. Also, the
mid/high level cloudiness is making it hard to determine the full
extent of the stratus. Kept local TAFs IFR through the morning in
most area, gradually rising to MVFR by midday. The low level
inversion that remain in place suggests some redevelopment is
possible again later tonight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
641 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Mid level southwest flow this morning was pushing a weak vorticity
lobe across OK into southern KS. This was generating scattered
showers, most of it appears to not be reaching the ground per obs.
Meanwhile at the surface, the dry ridge axis held in place with
mostly cloudy skies and temps falling near 50 degrees by sunrise.
For today, recent runs from the HRRR and RUC carry this wave and
scattered light showers towards central and east central KS through
the afternoon. Moisture profiles suggest a low level cloud deck
around 3 kft may slowly scatter out by late afternoon while the mid
level clouds linger through the evening. I added a chance for
sprinkles as oppose to showers due to the very shallow low level
cloud deck and much of the forcing associated with moisture at 12
kft. In addition, there remains pockets of dry air in between these
two layers. Highs today were lowered a few degrees given the above
mentioned factors with readings in the upper 60s.
Tonight, skies remain mostly cloudy to overcast while ridging aloft
results in dry conditions. Insulation from cloud cover will keep
lows warmer compared to previous mornings in the lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Tuesday through Wednesday, a closed upper low over extreme western
AZ will dig southeast into northern Mexico. An upper level trough
embedded within the northern stream of the upper jet will move
onshore across the pacific northwest on Tuesday and dig east-
southeast into the northern high plains. Low-level CAA across the
northern plains will cause a surface front to push southward into
western NE through the day Wednesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop along the front during the afternoon
hours across northeast CO and western NE. The best rain chances will
be west and northwest of the CWA Wednesday afternoon. Southerly
winds to the east of the lee surface trough across the central and
southern high plains will allow high temperatures to warm into the
mid to upper 70s on Tuesday with highs around 80 degrees on
Wednesday.
Wednesday night through Thursday night, the ECMWF and GFS differ on
the amplitude of the H5 trough digging southeast across the northern
plains into the mid MS river valley. The GFS is more amplified with
the H5 trough allowing for stronger ascent across the CWA and a
better chance for showers and thunderstorms along the surface cold
front late Wednesday night into Thursday evening. The ECMWF is not
as amplified with the northern plains trough, as it digs into the
mid MS river valley. The ECMWF does not show much in the way of QPF
across the CWA, except for the southeast counties late Thursday
afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. At this time I`ll keep
slight chance pops in the forecast for Wednesday night and chance
pops Thursday into Thursday night. However if the GFS solution
converges towards the less amplified ECMWF, then POPs may have to be
lowered on Thursday. Once the front pushes south of the area late
Thursday night the showers should end across the southeast counties.
Highs Thursday will be around 80 degrees ahead of the front with mid
70s across north central KS behind the surface front.
Friday, there will be a brief cool down as a surface ridge builds
south-southwest from the upper midwest into eastern KS. Highs will
only reach the mid to upper 60s.
Saturday through Monday, highs will warm into the mid 70s on
Saturday with upper 70s to lower 80s Sunday and Monday as a southern
stream upper level ridge amplifies across the southern plains, due
to the retrogression of the upper low over northeast Mexico,
westward towards the Baja CA region.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
IFR cigs this morning will be difficult to lift based on the weak
winds within the boundary layer. Guidance somewhat varies on when
conditions will lift to MVFR during the afternoon or early
evening period. There is a possibility the cigs may remain at MVFR
overnight if they can dissipate before sunset.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
651 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SPREAD
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINING OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER
LOW MOVING OFF OF THE FLORIDA COAST. THAT SAME IMAGERY INDICATED A
SMALL AREA OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT...WHERE THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED LOWER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
WHILE THE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED MINIMAL DISCERNABLE
ECHOES AS OF THIS WRITING EXCEPT TOWARD KCTZ AND KGSB...OBSERVATIONS
SHOW AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW A BAND OF VERY COOL
CLOUD TOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...OVER PARTS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS FORECASTS THE GREATEST 700MB UVV FOR THE DAY...JUST SOUTH
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OR IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHERN BORDERS OF
THE COUNTIES FROM SCOTLAND TO SAMPSON. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE GFS
FORECASTS A MODEST RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 40KT 500MB JET
AROUND THE UPPER LOW...AND BETTER UPPER DIFFLUENCE.
850MB THETA-E VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
A GRADUAL DECLINE FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...RAPIDLY DRYING
TONIGHT. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH GRADUAL DRYING DEPICTED IN
THOSE SOUNDINGS FROM LATE MORNING IN THE TRIAD TO THE MID-EVENING
TOWARD KFAY. THINK THAT LOW-LEVEL DRIZZLE AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS
LIKELY THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING...WITH THE CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE RAP
AND NAM ARE FASTER THAN THE GFS IN DIMINISHING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION...IT IS INTERESTING HOW THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OR
SO OF THE HRRR WRF ARE MUCH MORE BULLISH ON LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGH IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
IMMEDIATE TRIAD INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH INTO THE EVENING FOR THE FOUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LIFT AND DIFFLUENCE OVERHEAD.
THINKING IS THAT IF THERE ARE ANY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
THEY WOULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THOSE AREAS...POSSIBLY TO AREAS
CREEPING IN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KCTZ TO KMEB. OVERNIGHT THERE
SHOULD BE A CLEARING TREND...BUT LATE TONIGHT THE GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A BRIEF INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD KFAY
AND KRWI...SUCH THAT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE TO END THE NIGHT AND START TUESDAY.
WITH RECENT WIND GUSTS NEAR KINT TO JUST OVER 30KTS...AND 925MB
WIND FORECASTS THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z OF 35KT OR GREATER ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH LOWEST LEVEL MIXING...WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA TO JUST
BEFORE 18Z. THEN...THE 925MB WINDS SHOULD HAVE SUBSIDED SOME OVER
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH THE SURFACE GRADIENT RELAXING. DO NOT
TYPICALLY LIKE TO PIECEMEAL ADVISORIES DIMINISHING BUT THE
CONSENSUS OF EVIDENCE SUGGESTS AS THE 925MB WIND DIMINISHES...THE
GUSTINESS OF THE WIND SHOULD RELAX IN THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR PRIOR TO
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOWS UP SOMEWHAT IN THE LOW-
LEVEL DEPICTION OF MIXING ON THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. AS SUCH...
WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY TO AROUND U.S. 1 TO 4 PM AND LEAVE
IT TO 8 PM TOWARD INTERSTATE 95. HIGHS TODAY IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE MAIN ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE RULE DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. AS NOTED
ABOVE...THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI. WILL NOTE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE WHERE THE 925MB MOISTURE IS HIGH
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY...ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. ANY LOW
CLOUDS IN THE EAST SHOULD LIFT INTO CU BASED ON THE GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLY DIFFERENT TYPE OF
DAY THAN THOSE RECENTLY WITH PERIODS OF SUNSHINE. THE GFS SUGGESTS
SOME HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WHICH COULD FILTER SOME
LATE AFTERNOON SUN IF IT VERIFIES. MIXING SUGGESTS A FEW GUSTS IN
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE TEENS KNOTS IN MOST
PLACES...POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF NEAR 20KT GUSTS TOWARD KRWI AND
KFAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO NOTE A WIND IMPACT CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AS A PERISTENT UPPER SHORT WAVE MIGRATES AROSS
UPPER MID WEST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NUDGED EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO SPILL SOUTH DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDINESS AS THE UPPER FLOW
FLATTENS AND TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. TEMPS WILL EDGE
UPWARDS WITH HEIGHT RISES AND INSOLATION...LOW AND MID 70S WITH MINS
FROM 55 TO 60.
THE GFS HAS SPED UP THE TRANSLATION OF ITS MORE SHARPLY DEFINED
UPPER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...AND THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WOULD BE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AS
OPPOSED TO ABOUT A 12 HOUR DELAY ON THE 00Z ECMWF. REGARDLESS...
MOISTURE ADVECTION PRIOR TO THE FRONT IS LIMITED AND WOULD EXPECT
ONLY A FEW PREFRONTAL SHOWERS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING
THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH FOCUS IN THE
WEST FRIDAY EVENING...AND EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD WARM UP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S AGAIN FRIDAY...WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MILD COOL AIR
ADVECTION HOLDING TEMPS IN THE SEASONABLE 70 TO 75 RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY TODAY. GRADUALLY...DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE...WITH
THE FREQUENCY AND SPEEDS OF THE GUSTINESS ALSO DIMINISHING SLOWLY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS AROUND 1500FT TO
NEAR 40KT NEAR KFAY TO ABOUT 03Z BEFORE THOSE VALUES DIMINISH TO
30KT BY 06Z. AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES...MORE NOTICEABLE SURFACE
GUSTINESS SHOULD WANE BY SUNSET ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...AND DURING THE EVENING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND TOWARD
KFAY.
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND SUBVFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY TO IFR...
TOWARD KRWI AND KFAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
FRIDAY. A FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY AND MAY RESULT IN SOME PROBABILITY
OF A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...IF THE GFS MOISTURE FORECAST VERIFIES.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ011-027-028-
042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ007>010-
024>026-040-041-073>076-083-084.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ021>023-038-
039.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ085-086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
645 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
05/12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z AT KPNC AS LAYER OF STRATUS
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FROM NORTHEAST OK. CURRENTLY DO NOT
EXPECT THIS STRATUS DECK TO MAKE IT INTO KOKC/KOUN BUT WILL WATCH
CLOSELY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. RAIN WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
MOST MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING PERSISTENCE/STRENGTH OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH S/WV TROUGH LIFTING NORTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. HRRR IS THE PRIMARY MODEL USED FOR THE FIRST 6
TO 12 HOURS FORECAST AS IT IS HANDLING LIGHT PRECIP MUCH BETTER.
HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE
DURATION OF MOISTENING WILL RESIDE AND HAVE BETTER CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING RAIN. DO NOT EXPECT ANY LIGHTNING BUT THERE WILL BE
MUCH MORE COVERAGE OF PRECIP THAT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MENTION
SPRINKLES AS FAR EAST AS WICHITA FALLS...PAULS VALLEY...OKC
METRO...AND STILLWATER THIS MORNING AND INTO AFTERNOON NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-40. LOWERED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BUT MAYBE NOT ENOUGH IF PRECIP
LINGERS LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON THAN EXPECTED.
DRY AND WARMER PERIOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SW U.S. UPPER LOW AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL ACCOMPANY
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH. GFS HAS COME AROUND TO ECM LINE OF
THINKING WRT MENTIONED UPPER LOW. THIS WILL YIELD OVERALL LOWER
CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT NEAR THE MENTIONED FRONT. THIS FRONT HANDLED SIMILARLY BY
ALL MODELS AND SHOULD MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN
ACTIVITY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW. FAIRLY
QUICKLY WARM-UP EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH
BUILDING RIDGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73 55 82 60 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 73 53 83 58 / 60 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 77 55 84 60 / 20 0 0 0
GAGE OK 70 53 81 58 / 60 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 71 52 80 57 / 30 0 0 0
DURANT OK 79 56 85 61 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS TUCSON AZ
1004 AM MST MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AFTER A
FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF TUCSON
TODAY. AS THE LOW PUSHES DIRECTLY INTO THE AREA...MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS...AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING EARLY
THIS MORNING IN THE TUCSON MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF TUCSON IN PINAL
COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SO FAR. THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING...AND WAS
PROGGED TO EJECT EASTWARD TO A POSITION CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL
AZ BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WAS STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE
TODAY. NONETHELESS...THE SHEAR PROFILE AND CAPE VALUES WERE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPPORTING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS TODAY. THIS DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS
MORNING...SO PLEASE REFERENCE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION IN
THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETIALS. OTHERWISE...NO UPDATES NECESSARY AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/18Z.
SCT TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS 6-10 KFT WITH ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA FROM KTUS
AND KOLS EAST THRU 05/16Z. EAST WINDS 5-15 KTS ACROSS
COCHISE...GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES WITH SOUTH WIND TO 10 KTS
ELSEWHERE. AFT 05/16Z SCT-BKN 6-10 KFT AND ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA
WITH GREATEST CHANCES FROM EAST OF KTUS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP AFT 05/16Z AT 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS TO 30 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IMPACTING SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN MONDAY
THEN LIGHT WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN
MODERATING LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...MORNING UPDATE...THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING HAS PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 1 INCH. DECENT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND IMPRESSIVE SHEAR FOR OUR AREA WITH BRN AT
52 M^2/S^2. THE CURRENT CONVECTION IS ALONG A GOOD SHEAR AXIS
THROUGH SANTA CRUZ AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTIES...NORTHWARD THROUGH
PINAL AND GILA COUNTIES. THESE FACTORS WOULD ARGUE FOR A BUSIER DAY
THROUGH EASTERN PIMA COUNTY AND THE GREATER TUCSON AREA THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. HOWEVER...THE HRRR ROTATES (WE BELIEVE
CORRECTLY) THIS MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR AREA INTO GRAHAM COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST CIRA LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY FOR 700-500 HPA IS PUSHING DRIER AIR ABOVE H7 IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THIS IS HINTED AT BY THE MORNING SOUNDING
WHERE THERE ARE SPIKES REPRESENTING THE ONSET OF THIS DRYING SHOWING
UP NEAR H7 AND H6. SO WE ARE STANDING PAT FOR NOW WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR CONVECTION IN THE TUCSON METRO
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE AGREE WITH THE POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
SWODY1 BY SPC...HOWEVER WE WOULD EMPHASIZE AREAS EAST AND NORTH OF
TUCSON FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ESPECIALLY GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PINAL COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALL THE PIECES ARE IN PLACE...NOW
IT`S JUST A TIMING ISSUE. THE STRONG LOW HAS MADE IT`S WAY INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND HAS LOST MOST OF IT`S HIGHER
LATITUDE SUPPORT AS EXPECTED. WE WILL SEE A SLOW WOBBLE EASTWARD
TODAY WITH A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE H7 AND LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUING TO IMPORT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. OVERALL THE
CONDITIONAL RISK IS ELEVATED FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH DECENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING MAY INHIBIT OVERALL COVERAGE FOR PART OF
THE AREA TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 3/4 AND 1 INCH IN
EASTERN AREAS...HOWEVER SOME TEMPORARY MID LEVEL DRYING WRAPPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY TEND TO LIMIT COVERAGE IN
CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING EASTERN PIMA COUNTY AND THE
GREATER TUCSON AREA. THE BEST COVERAGE COMES TOGETHER WITH THE
INCREASED THREAT FOR SEVERE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS...INCLUDING
GRAHAM...GREENLEE AND COCHISE COUNTIES.
AS THE LOW SLOWLY PUSHES TOWARD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE EVEN BETTER CONDITIONS FOR INCREASED
STORM COVERAGE. A POSSIBLE SWEET SPOT IN TIMING IS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHERE JET DYNAMICS JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW...A LITTLE DAYTIME
HEATING...AND A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENT FIELD COME TOGETHER
FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR OUR PART OF THE
STATE.
THIS CUTOFF ACTUALLY BEGINS TO REACT TO THE STRONG RIDGE WEST OF THE
AREA LATER THIS WEEK. A SLOW DROP INTO NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST
MEXICO KEEPS IT AROUND FOR DAYS AND DAYS AS IT SLOWLY FILLS.
INTERESTING THAT BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE KEEPING IT IN PROXIMITY
THROUGH 240 HOURS. SO SLOW WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS REBOUND AND SOME
DRYING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS HANGING AROUND MAINLY MOUNTAIN AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREAS INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
PREV DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
445 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH 8:00 PM TONIGHT...
TONIGHT...
WEAK CYCLONE LIFTING UP THE SERN SEABOARD THIS AFTN WITH DEEP LYR
WARMING THRU THE MID LVLS WILL PRECLUDE ANY HIGH IMPACT PRECIP...
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE -6C H50 ISOTHERM DEPARTING THE NRN
BREVARD COAST...WARMING TO -4C AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SLGT CHANCE
OF SHRAS ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CAPE NWD AS A NRLY WIND SURGE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE DOWN FROM THE GA/SC COAST...MRNG SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS
INCREASING FROM 1.1" AT KXMR TO 1.4" AT KJAX. SFC/LOW LVL PGRAD
SHOULD REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH MAINTAIN A LIGHT NWRLY DRAINAGE FLOW DOWN
THE PENINSULA...MIN TEMPS GENERAL IN THE L/M60S WITH A FEW SPOTS
HOLING IN THE U60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
NOTE FOR COASTAL INTERESTS: A LONG PERIOD (11-SECOND)SWELL FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENT AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH SUNSET.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...(MODIFIED PREV DISC)
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NE OFFSHORE FROM THE NC COAST AND ALLOW A
WEAK TROF TO DROP DOWN ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTAL AREAS
WITH A NRLY LOW LVL WIND SURGE DVLPG IN ITS WAKE. VERY WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN PLACE DUE TO A STRONG H85-H70 INVERSION...
LIMITED UVM WILL PRECLUDE DEEP CONVECTION. ANY PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF LOW TOPPED SHRAS AND SHOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST. WILL LIMIT
PRECIP TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM INDIAN RIVER NWD...AND INTERIOR
COUNTIES FROM ORANGE/SRN LAKE NWD AS THE AIRMASS INITIALLY WILL BE
QUITE DRY AND WILL REQUIRE MODIFICATION IN ORDER TO SUPPORT PRECIP.
MAX TEMPS L-M80S.
CSTL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFT SUNSET AS THE
PERSISTENT N/NE FLOW SLOWLY MODIFIES THE DRY AIR...30 POPS COASTAL
VOLUSIA TO INDIAN RIVER AS N/NE FLOW 15-20KTS THRU THE H100-H80 LYR
GENERATES COASTAL CONVERGENCE WHILE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MODIFY THE
DRY AIR ALOFT. SHRAS FORMING IN THIS TYPE OF FLOW REGIME RARELY HAVE
ANY SIG IMPACT W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...NO MENTIONABLE PRECIP FOR
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. MIN TEMPS M/U60S INTERIOR...U60S/L70S ALONG
THE COAST.
WED...(MODIFIED PREV DISC)
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN SECTIONS BEHIND THE WANING
SFC BOUNDARY WITH GFS INDICATING SOME DRYING ACROSS FAR NRN SECTIONS
WITH NE LOW LVL FLOW. WILL TAPER POPS FROM 30PCT COASTAL TO BLO 20PCT
INTERIOR...WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL PRECLUDE ANY TSTRM ACTIVITY. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND SRN
SECTIONS...ONSHORE FLOW WILL MODIFY LOW DEWPOINT AIR SUFFICIENTLY TO
KEEP MIN TEMPS NEAR 70F.
THU...(PREV DISC)
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE ON THU WITH REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS CLOSEST TO THE OLD SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AIRMASS WILL BEGIN
TO MODIFY SOMEWHAT WITH STILL SOME LINGERING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO MID-UPPER 80S IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
FRI-SUN...(PREV DISC)
LONG RANGE MODELS A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN STATES AND WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE AT LEAST THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS PROGS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING EAST OF THE
STATE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH 00Z ECMWF ALSO INDICATING A S/W
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH CENTRAL FL SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME DRYING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FCST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE LEVELS FOR SOME
CONVECTION EACH DAY...WITH ANY DEEPER CONVECTION MOVING TWD THE EAST
COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE
30-40 PCT RANGE FRI/SAT LOWERING TO 20/30 PCT ON SUNDAY. HIGHS IN
THE MID-UPR 80S. LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE 18Z MAV GUIDANCE HINTING AT MVFR CIGS BTWN 06/09Z-06/14Z DUE TO
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE 850-700MB LAYER...LIGHT NW FLOW IN THE
LOWEST LAYER BCMG N/NW ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DEPARTING CYCLONE OFF THE GA/SC COAST WILL TRAIL A WEAK
TROF INTO THE LCL ATLC...MAINTAINING A WEAK SFC/BNDRY LYR PGRAD.
GENTLE NWRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPTION WILL BE THE VOLUSIA
WATERS AS A NRLY SURGE MAY WORK ITS WAY S OF FLAGLER BEACH OVERNIGHT
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CYCLONE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS A 6-7FT
ERLY SWELL TRAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE LCL ATLC...WILL MAINTAIN
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS AREAWIDE.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AS A NRLY WIND SURGE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES A NEW SWELL
TRAIN INTO THE LCL ATLC FROM THE CAROLINAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NRLY
BREEZE WILL COMBINE WITH THE SWELL TO PUSH SEAS BACK UP TO 6-8FT OVER
AT LEAST THE VOLUSIA WATERS IF NOT THE NRN BREVARD WATERS. THE
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE TREASURE COAST
WATERS...BUT STILL WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO MAINTAIN 5-7FT
SEAS THRU DAYBREAK WED.
WED-THU...WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN A SLOW BUT STEADY RETREAT THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A WEAK TROF TRAILING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW STALLS
OVER CENTRAL FL. GENTLE TO MODERATE NRLY BREEZE WED BCMG LIGHT TO
GENTLE E/NE BREEZE WED NIGHT...THEN LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE BY
LATE THU. SEAS 5-6FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE WED...SUBSIDING TO
4-6FT AREAWIDE LATE WED NIGHT...THEN 3-5FT AFT SUNSET THU.
FRI-SAT...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE TROF
COLLAPSES AND THE ATLC RIDGE REBUILDS ACRS THE SW ATLC. LIGHT TO
GENTLE SERLY BREEZE...SEAS 3-5FT FRI SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS JUST ABOVE 3.0 FT THIS
AFTN...ABOUT 0.20 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 65 82 69 82 / 20 30 20 30
MCO 66 84 69 84 / 10 20 20 30
MLB 64 84 71 84 / 20 20 40 40
VRB 64 84 69 84 / 20 10 40 40
LEE 65 83 67 84 / 10 20 10 20
SFB 66 84 68 84 / 10 30 20 30
ORL 67 84 69 84 / 10 20 20 30
FPR 64 85 68 85 / 20 10 40 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT/LONG TERM......BRAGAW
AVIATION/IMPACT WX...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
338 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER
LOW THAT WAS OVER THE REGION DURING THE PAST WEEKEND FINALLY
EXITING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE LOW CENTER IS NOW WELL
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...AND ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE
RISING...THE LARGER CIRCULATION AND MOISTURE PLUME ON WV IMAGERY
REMAINS OVER THE STATE. THE MAIN COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING OFF TO THE EAST AS WELL. ALL THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN OVERALL IMPROVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN TERMS
DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS MIGRATING OFF THE GULF.
THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW...ALONG WITH SOME RESIDUAL CHILLY AIR ALOFT IS STILL PROMOTING
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE OFF
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...MAINLY FROM PINELLAS COUNTY
SOUTHWARD. KEEP RAIN 30-50% RAIN CHANCES IN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST FOR THESE SHOWERS...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE
AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THESE SHOWER MOVE ASHORE THE DIURNAL
MIXING PROCESSES ARE HELPING TO DISSIPATE THEM BEFORE THEY MAKE
MUCH INLAND PENETRATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS ABOVE...WE CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH A
FEW SCT SHOWERS MIGRATING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF...AND KEEPING A
30-50% CHANCE POP ALONG THE COAST FROM PINELLAS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
THE FURTHER WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THE FURTHER EAST THE
UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT...THE OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD
LESSEN...ALONG WITH TEMPS WARMING A FEW MORE DEGREES ALOFT. ALL
THESE PROCESSES WILL HELP TO DISCOURAGE FURTHER SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. MORE DEFINED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE GULF MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF SUNSET...SHOULD BE ABLE TO CARRY A DRY FORECAST FOR EVEN
OUR COASTAL LAND ZONES.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FROM LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AND BE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA BY DAWN TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT LIGHT NORTHERLY OVER ALL AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH.
SREF GUIDANCE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD FAVOR SOME LOWER
CLOUDS/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE
GUIDANCE RUNS FOR INCLUSION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS INTO
I-4 CORRIDOR TAFS. LOW TEMPERATURES BY LATE TONIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S NORTH...AND MID/UPPER 60S
SOUTH. LOCATIONS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY AND THE
ISLAND AROUND CHARLOTTE HARBOR ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE 70S
WITH FLOW OFF THE WATER.
TUESDAY...
A QUIET AND SEASONABLE EARLY OCTOBER DAY IS FORECAST. ANY
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE
EXITED THE AREA. OUR REGION WILL BE LEFT BEHIND WITHIN A VERY
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO
"NOSE" IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE SURFACE. AFTER MORNING LOW CLOUDS
(ESPECIALLY NORTH)...WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS...WITH
LOW RAIN CHANCES. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE TO
THE SOUTH OF I-4 IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OLD/STALLED SURFACE
TROUGH...HOWEVER... RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE 10% OR LESS FOR MOST
SPOTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN LOOK SEASONABLE WITH LOWER/MID 80S
NORTH...AND MIDDLE 80S SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - NEXT MONDAY)...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD AS A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH RIDGING BUILDING
DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY N/NE FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE WEAK TROUGH OVER SOUTH FL WILL
LIFT NORTH OVER THE STATE AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE BECOMES ONSHORE WITH THE SEA
BREEZE.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT SOMEWHAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES WITH IT IN THE ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED RANGE. DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY WITH A
LINGERING SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...THEN WARM INTO THE 70S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHTS...AND COOL BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A
BRIEF SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS CLOSE TO THE COAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AFTER
SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY...A
PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR...MAINLY KLAL/KTPA/KPIE. ANY EARLY MORNING CIGS WILL BURN
OFF BY 15Z RESULTING IN PREVAILING VFR AT ALL TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING STATIONARY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WATERS ON TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH THEN
WASHES OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
MID-WEEK. A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS IS FORECAST TONIGHT
TO THE NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS...BUT OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DIMINISH AFTER TODAY...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE IN THE
FORECAST.
FOG POTENTIAL...AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 68 84 71 86 / 10 10 10 20
FMY 69 86 71 88 / 20 10 10 30
GIF 67 85 70 85 / 0 10 20 40
SRQ 68 83 70 86 / 20 0 10 20
BKV 65 83 68 85 / 10 10 10 20
SPG 71 83 73 85 / 20 0 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...HUBBARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
232 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Stratus deck held firm a good part of the morning, but started to
rapidly erode toward midday and most of it is now gone from the
forecast area as of 2 pm. Still getting some cirrus streaming up
from the southwest, but most areas at least are now partly sunny.
This has helped temperatures recover nicely and much of the CWA has
reached into the 70s. A few 80 degree readings have been observed in
the far southeast, where skies have been mostly sunny the entire
time.
High pressure ridge from Wisconsin to Oklahoma will move little
overnight, keeping our northeast flow continuing. 925 mb RAP
humidity plot showing some southern building of the lower clouds
once again overnight, and have indicated mostly cloudy conditions
spreading over most of the forecast area overnight. It has also been
persistent over the last few hours on a widespread dense fog
scenario expanding southwest to cover the southeast half of the
forecast area. The 4km NAM-nest shows this a bit further northwest,
mainly from about I-55 eastward, and the tail end of the HRRR is
more patchy in nature, but in that same general region. At the
moment, will only mention patchy fog in the forecast and continue to
watch how the stratus evolves this evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
High pressure ridge will dominate the weather across central IL
through mid week. Though there could be some cloud cover, partly to
mostly sunny skies should be the rule, with temps warming to above
normal, mid to upper 70s...into the lower 80s, for Wed and Thur.
Then models are in very good agreement with timing and intensity of
a cold front moving through the area Thursday night. Pcpn will begin
just ahead of the front Thursday morning northwest of the IL river
and then spread eastward through the afternoon and into the evening
for the southeast. The front should move through the area quickly
Thursday night with pcpn likely over the northeastern portion of the
CWA during the night. The pcpn should be exiting the area from late
Thursday night through early Friday morning. Lingering pcpn will in
southeastern IL Friday morning, with all pcpn gone before the
afternoon. This front will bring cooler temps in for Friday and
Saturday, but with another high pressure ridge moving into the area,
temps will again warm to above normal levels for Sun and Mon. Dry
weather is also expected Friday afternoon through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
IFR/LIFR cloud deck has shown some erosion and lifting over the
last few hours, with only highs clouds south of a KSPI-KDNV line.
Aside from KDEC which has completely lost the low clouds,
conditions should lift into MVFR range shortly over most of the
remaining TAF sites. Have kept KBMI IFR through most of the
afternoon, although even here there will be some breaks into a
higher category mid-late afternoon.
Main concern overnight is for a repeat of today`s conditions. Last
few runs of the RAP and NAM-Nest models have been trying to focus
the stratus/fog across the southeast half of Illinois after 06Z,
mainly skirting the TAF sites. Have gone with IFR conditions at
KBMI due to the slower nature of the ceiling lift this afternoon,
but kept the lower MVFR ceilings of 1000-1500 feet elsewhere. A
thick inversion should keep ceilings below 3000 feet through
midday Tuesday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1229 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Forecast concerns for today remain with clouds and temperatures.
Latest visible satellite imagery showing a large deck of low
stratus clouds from about Litchfield to Paris northward,
exhibiting very little movement over the last couple hours. Some
higher clouds are now streaming over the stratus as well. Areas of
dense fog across east central Illinois are contracting and
becoming more isolated, and should further erode over the next 1-2
hours. Morning upper-air sounding showing a fairly strong
inversion around 1,000 feet. Forecast soundings off the RAP show
this lifting to around 2,000 feet this afternoon, with 925 mb
humidity plots showing the clouds remaining widespread across at
least the northern third of the forecast area (mainly Rushville-
Danville northward). Have trended temperatures down a degree or
two in that area, but will have to watch for further downward
adjustments if the stratus deck does not start eroding faster in
the next couple hours.
Across the southeast CWA, skies are mostly sunny, but some
increase in clouds on tap as the higher clouds stream in from the
southwest. Temperatures rebounding nicely so far and should reach
into the upper 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Main short-term forecast concern will be amount of cloud cover and
its impact on high temperatures today. 07z/2am IR satellite imagery
shows low clouds persisting along/west of the Illinois River...while
skies have become mostly clear further east across the remainder of
the area. Meanwhile...low clouds are re-developing upstream across
northern sections of Illinois and Indiana. With high pressure
anchored from Lake Superior into the Central Plains...E/NE low-level
flow around the high will tend to advect the cloudiness back into
the KILX CWA over the next few hours. Based on satellite timing
tools and latest HRRR guidance...am expecting overcast conditions to
exist along/northwest of a Springfield to Paris line by dawn.
Further southeast...conditions will remain mostly clear with only
high clouds streaming across the sky. NAM/GFS forecast soundings
and HRRR all suggest low clouds will gradually dissipate across most
of the area by midday...however quite a bit of mid/high cloud cover
will remain. End result will be a partly to mostly cloudy day
across the northern two-thirds of the CWA...with mostly sunny skies
along/south of I-70. A fairly robust temperature gradient will
develop across the area depending on how much cloud cover
persists...with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s
northwest of the Illinois River where conditions will remain
cloudiest...to the upper 70s along/south of I-70 where much more
sunshine will prevail.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Persistent low-level moisture will be slow to depart the region as
surface high remains in place along the Mississippi River. Thanks
to continued E/NE flow around the high and a weak upper-level
disturbance...quite a bit of cloudiness will stick around through
Tuesday. Once the high gradually slides further east and winds
begin to shift to a more southerly direction...much more sunshine
will be noted by Wednesday. Resulting high temperatures will
generally be in the lower to middle 70s on Tuesday...rising into the
upper 70s to around 80 by Wednesday.
Cold front is still expected to swing through central Illinois later
in the week...with the 00z Oct 5 models speeding up passage of the
front by about 6-12 hours. Due to faster approach...have included
chance PoPs for showers/isolated thunder further east to the I-57
corridor during the day Thursday...with the best chance for showers
across the entire area still slated for Thursday night. While the
GFS shows the boundary completely clearing the CWA by early Friday
morning...ECMWF remains a bit slower so have lingered low chance
PoPs for showers along/south of I-70 into Friday. Once front
passes, temperatures will drop into the 60s for both Friday and
Saturday.
After that...upper heights will once again rise markedly across the
Midwest early next week resulting in another warming trend. Both
the GFS and ECMWF show 850mb temps rising into the 20-22C range by
Monday, which will likely lead to high temperatures reaching the
upper 70s and lower 80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
IFR/LIFR cloud deck has shown some erosion and lifting over the
last few hours, with only highs clouds south of a KSPI-KDNV line.
Aside from KDEC which has completely lost the low clouds,
conditions should lift into MVFR range shortly over most of the
remaining TAF sites. Have kept KBMI IFR through most of the
afternoon, although even here there will be some breaks into a
higher category mid-late afternoon.
Main concern overnight is for a repeat of today`s conditions. Last
few runs of the RAP and NAM-Nest models have been trying to focus
the stratus/fog across the southeast half of Illinois after 06Z,
mainly skirting the TAF sites. Have gone with IFR conditions at
KBMI due to the slower nature of the ceiling lift this afternoon,
but kept the lower MVFR ceilings of 1000-1500 feet elsewhere. A
thick inversion should keep ceilings below 3000 feet through
midday Tuesday.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1235 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Mid level southwest flow this morning was pushing a weak vorticity
lobe across OK into southern KS. This was generating scattered
showers, most of it appears to not be reaching the ground per obs.
Meanwhile at the surface, the dry ridge axis held in place with
mostly cloudy skies and temps falling near 50 degrees by sunrise.
For today, recent runs from the HRRR and RUC carry this wave and
scattered light showers towards central and east central KS through
the afternoon. Moisture profiles suggest a low level cloud deck
around 3 kft may slowly scatter out by late afternoon while the mid
level clouds linger through the evening. I added a chance for
sprinkles as oppose to showers due to the very shallow low level
cloud deck and much of the forcing associated with moisture at 12
kft. In addition, there remains pockets of dry air in between these
two layers. Highs today were lowered a few degrees given the above
mentioned factors with readings in the upper 60s.
Tonight, skies remain mostly cloudy to overcast while ridging aloft
results in dry conditions. Insulation from cloud cover will keep
lows warmer compared to previous mornings in the lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
Tuesday through Wednesday, a closed upper low over extreme western
AZ will dig southeast into northern Mexico. An upper level trough
embedded within the northern stream of the upper jet will move
onshore across the pacific northwest on Tuesday and dig east-
southeast into the northern high plains. Low-level CAA across the
northern plains will cause a surface front to push southward into
western NE through the day Wednesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop along the front during the afternoon
hours across northeast CO and western NE. The best rain chances will
be west and northwest of the CWA Wednesday afternoon. Southerly
winds to the east of the lee surface trough across the central and
southern high plains will allow high temperatures to warm into the
mid to upper 70s on Tuesday with highs around 80 degrees on
Wednesday.
Wednesday night through Thursday night, the ECMWF and GFS differ on
the amplitude of the H5 trough digging southeast across the northern
plains into the mid MS river valley. The GFS is more amplified with
the H5 trough allowing for stronger ascent across the CWA and a
better chance for showers and thunderstorms along the surface cold
front late Wednesday night into Thursday evening. The ECMWF is not
as amplified with the northern plains trough, as it digs into the
mid MS river valley. The ECMWF does not show much in the way of QPF
across the CWA, except for the southeast counties late Thursday
afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. At this time I`ll keep
slight chance pops in the forecast for Wednesday night and chance
pops Thursday into Thursday night. However if the GFS solution
converges towards the less amplified ECMWF, then POPs may have to be
lowered on Thursday. Once the front pushes south of the area late
Thursday night the showers should end across the southeast counties.
Highs Thursday will be around 80 degrees ahead of the front with mid
70s across north central KS behind the surface front.
Friday, there will be a brief cool down as a surface ridge builds
south-southwest from the upper midwest into eastern KS. Highs will
only reach the mid to upper 60s.
Saturday through Monday, highs will warm into the mid 70s on
Saturday with upper 70s to lower 80s Sunday and Monday as a southern
stream upper level ridge amplifies across the southern plains, due
to the retrogression of the upper low over northeast Mexico,
westward towards the Baja CA region.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday MORNING) ISSUED AT
1234 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
IFR ceilings are expected to continue through 19Z at MHK and through
20Z at TOP/FOE. A few sprinkles and/or an isolated shower is
possible through afternoon at MHK, but precipitation amounts would
be less than 0.01 inches. MVFR ceilings are then introduced at
TOP/FOE for the remainder of the TAF period. VFR conditions are
possible near the end of the period, but confidence in VFR ceilings
are low at this point due to light BL winds.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Baerg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
704 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED WSW MID/UPPER LEVEL NRN STREAM
FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SE MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM ERN MANITOBA
INTO THE NW CORNER OF MN. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILED FROM
SRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. VIS LOOP INDICATED LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI BUT WITH SOME CLEARING FAR WEST AS
DEVELOPING SW FLOW BRINGS IN SOME DRIER AIR. WEBCAMS...RADAR AND SFC
VSBY INDICATED THAT THE PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM NEAR ESC-MNM AND OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPPER MI HAS DIMINISHED.
TONIGHT... EXPECT THE MANITOBA SHRTWV TO LIFT ENE TO NEAR JAMES BAY
BY 12Z...DRAGGING THE FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. 925-850 MB WINDS
VEERING FROM SW TO W SHOULD HELP BRING A PERIOD OF CLEARING.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN LATE. SO...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP OFF
QUICKLY...EXPECT MINS ONLY TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S BEFORE CLOUDS
MOVE BACK IN. SOME DRIZZLE MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE THIS
EVENING BUT THE VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DRYING SHOULD ALSO HELP
TO END ANY LIGHT PCPN.
TUE...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA. THE
STRONGEST 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE SHRTWV WILL REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAK FORCING INTO THE
ERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. EVEN WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE...MIXING
THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 7C SHOULD MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BE DEPARTING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD....ALLOWING A HIGH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT DEPARTS...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS. 12Z NAM WAS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE ON THAT IDEA (MORE THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN AND OTHER MODELS)...BOTH WITH THE MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR...SO WILL AT LEAST SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER LOWER LEVEL
AIR WORKS BACK IN. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WOULD EXPECT DIURNAL HEATING TO LEAD TO CU DEVELOPMENT
AND WILL SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN
AREAS.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE TIED TO A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL
COME ONSHORE TOMORROW. THE WAVE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...MODELS STILL DIFFERING SOME ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND IN TURN THE SWATH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW. OVERALL...LIKE A GENERAL COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WITH THE LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND THEN QUICKLY DEPARTING ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE U.P.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TIED TO THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST
RAIN (STRONG 925-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALIGNED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.P.).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW...LEADING TO A
NICE DAY ON FRIDAY. BUT THAT WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MID-HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRUSH
THE AREA SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. BEST MOISTURE/FORCING
STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW...SO WILL JUST SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL ALLOW HIGH
END MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS TO PERSIST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES THEN.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING CIGS NEAR MVFR LATE TUE
MORNING INTO TUE AFTERNOON AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM A HIGH IN
QUEBEC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT MAINLY OVER WEST AND CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW
MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH WINDS PEAKING AROUND 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
419 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED WSW MID/UPPER LEVEL NRN STREAM
FLOW THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SE MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM ERN MANITOBA
INTO THE NW CORNER OF MN. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILED FROM
SRN QUEBEC THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. VIS LOOP INDICATED LOW CLOUDS
LINGERING ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI BUT WITH SOME CLEARING FAR WEST AS
DEVELOPING SW FLOW BRINGS IN SOME DRIER AIR. WEBCAMS...RADAR AND SFC
VSBY INDICATED THAT THE PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM NEAR ESC-MNM AND OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPPER MI HAS DIMINISHED.
TONIGHT... EXPECT THE MANITOBA SHRTWV TO LIFT ENE TO NEAR JAMES BAY
BY 12Z...DRAGGING THE FRONT INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. 925-850 MB WINDS
VEERING FROM SW TO W SHOULD HELP BRING A PERIOD OF CLEARING.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN LATE. SO...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP OFF
QUICKLY...EXPECT MINS ONLY TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S BEFORE CLOUDS
MOVE BACK IN. SOME DRIZZLE MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE THIS
EVENING BUT THE VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DRYING SHOULD ALSO HELP
TO END ANY LIGHT PCPN.
TUE...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA. THE
STRONGEST 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH THE SHRTWV WILL REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WEAK FORCING INTO THE
ERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. EVEN WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE...MIXING
THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 7C SHOULD MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BE DEPARTING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD....ALLOWING A HIGH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AT THE START OF
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT DEPARTS...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT LAKE ENHANCED
CLOUDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA UNDER NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS. 12Z NAM WAS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE ON THAT IDEA (MORE THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN AND OTHER MODELS)...BOTH WITH THE MOISTURE AND COLD
AIR...SO WILL AT LEAST SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER LOWER LEVEL
AIR WORKS BACK IN. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND INTO
WEDNESDAY...WOULD EXPECT DIURNAL HEATING TO LEAD TO CU DEVELOPMENT
AND WILL SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN
AREAS.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE TIED TO A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL
COME ONSHORE TOMORROW. THE WAVE WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES AND STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW AND SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...MODELS STILL DIFFERING SOME ON THE
EXACT TRACK AND IN TURN THE SWATH OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE LOW. OVERALL...LIKE A GENERAL COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WITH THE LOW TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND THEN QUICKLY DEPARTING ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE U.P.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TIED TO THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST
RAIN (STRONG 925-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ALIGNED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.P.).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW...LEADING TO A
NICE DAY ON FRIDAY. BUT THAT WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MID-HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRUSH
THE AREA SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. BEST MOISTURE/FORCING
STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW...SO WILL JUST SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SET THE AREA UP
FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION WILL ALLOW HIGH END MVFR TO
LOW END VFR CIGS TO PERSIST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. AS THE WINDS BECOME SW TOWARD THIS EVENING DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW CIGS TO SCATTER OUT.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING CIGS NEAR MVFR INTO TUE
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM A HIGH IN
QUEBEC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT MAINLY OVER WEST AND CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND GUST UP TO 25KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW
MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY AND TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH WINDS PEAKING AROUND 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
334 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...WE FINALLY GOT RID OF THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK
THIS MORNING... BUT LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A RESURGENCE OF
CLOUD COVER OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. THE HRRR DATA IS SHOWING
THIS CLOUD DECK...BUT IT SEEMS A LITTLE FAST IN DISSIPATING IT THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS DECK LOOKS TO BE MORE MODULATED BY MIXING...THUS
EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING.
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO INCH TO THE EAST AND DRY AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. ALREADY TEMPS TODAY HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S...AND EXPECT THIS WARMTH TO CONTINUE WITH VALUES APPROACHING 90
BY WESDNESDAY.
COLD CORE LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK...WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY AND ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BY FRIDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PULL EAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
NEVER DO MUCH TO INCREASE MOISTURE AS LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL BE
ABOUT AS MUCH THAT CAN BE MUSTERED. THUS...AM ONLY LOOKING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST AS MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO TREND
DRIER./26/
&&
.AVIATION...NORTHEAST FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRATOCUMULUS...
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HKS/JAN TO GTR CORRIDOR...BUT
MOST CIGS HAVE MIXED UP TO ABOVE 3000 FT. RECENT GUIDANCE FORECAST
THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION PATTERN TO DIMINISH. SO LESS STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...CLEARER SKIES
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE FOG POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF TUESDAY. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 62 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 6
MERIDIAN 61 85 61 87 / 1 2 1 4
VICKSBURG 59 88 60 90 / 0 0 0 5
HATTIESBURG 62 86 64 88 / 2 2 2 5
NATCHEZ 61 85 63 87 / 0 1 1 4
GREENVILLE 60 86 63 89 / 1 1 2 3
GREENWOOD 59 87 62 88 / 1 1 1 4
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
26/EC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
515 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION
CENTERED AT AROUND 850MB THAT HAS MAINTAINED THE LOW OVERCAST DECK.
SOME DRIZZLE IS STILL BEING REPORTED OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA BUT HAS
GENERALLY ENDED ELSEWHERE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS
APPROACHING THE THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND PARTIAL CLEARING IS
OCCURRING WEST AND NORTH OF EAU CLAIRE AND MEDFORD. LOOKING FURTHER
WEST...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS. CLOUD TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
PUSH EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND FINALLY HELP TO
SCOUR OUT THESE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS. BUT UPSTREAM OBS DO NOT
SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR COMPLETELY AND WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY. THEN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AND CREATE BROKEN CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 40S.
TUESDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SOUTHEAST
AND REACH NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF
MID CLOUDS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A
MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING. BUT RH THINS OUT SOME IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND THE AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...SO WILL STICK
WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER
DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
PCPN TRENDS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND QPF AMOUNTS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY.
PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
PCPN WILL DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A 45-50 KT LLJ JET AND A COUPLED UPPER JET
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES NORTHWEST
WI. THIS FORCING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY MORNING
AND INTERACT WITH PWATS OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES AND SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (H8 LI`S OF 0 TO -2) TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A H8 WARM FRONT WILL RESIDE...
AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT (ESPECIALLY THE EVENING HOURS)...UNTIL THE UPPER TROF
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...STRONG WAA MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO FAR NE WI ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NORTHERN WI ON
MONDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 515 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION OVER
EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE IFR/MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING. COLD AIR AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE 850 MB LEVEL HAS
ERODED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
WAS WORKING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. MAINLY MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WERE
NOTED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF CLEARING OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOW FAST THESE LOW CLOUDS
DEPART EASTERN WISCONSIN IS THE PRIMARY AVIATION CHALLENGE...TREND
INDICATES VERY SLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. AREA WHICH DOES
CLEAR FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT COULD SEE PATCHES OF LIFR
FOG LATE TONIGHT. CONTINUED DRIER AIR ON WESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY
WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO VFR LEVELS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE
HIGH...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION
CENTERED AT AROUND 850MB THAT HAS MAINTAINED THE LOW OVERCAST DECK.
SOME DRIZZLE IS STILL BEING REPORTED OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA BUT HAS
GENERALLY ENDED ELSEWHERE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS
APPROACHING THE THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND PARTIAL CLEARING IS
OCCURRING WEST AND NORTH OF EAU CLAIRE AND MEDFORD. LOOKING FURTHER
WEST...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS. CLOUD TRENDS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
LATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
PUSH EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AND FINALLY HELP TO
SCOUR OUT THESE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS. BUT UPSTREAM OBS DO NOT
SUGGEST THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR COMPLETELY AND WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY. THEN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AND CREATE BROKEN CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE 40S.
TUESDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SOUTHEAST
AND REACH NORTH-CENTRAL WI BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF
MID CLOUDS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A
MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING. BUT RH THINS OUT SOME IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT IS WEAK AND THE AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY DRY...SO WILL STICK
WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER
DAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
PCPN TRENDS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND QPF AMOUNTS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WILL BE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WSTRN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LINGER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WEDNESDAY.
PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
PCPN WILL DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A 45-50 KT LLJ JET AND A COUPLED UPPER JET
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES NORTHWEST
WI. THIS FORCING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THURSDAY MORNING
AND INTERACT WITH PWATS OF 1.00-1.50 INCHES AND SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY (H8 LI`S OF 0 TO -2) TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE A H8 WARM FRONT WILL RESIDE...
AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT (ESPECIALLY THE EVENING HOURS)...UNTIL THE UPPER TROF
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE A LACK OF MOISTURE...STRONG WAA MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO FAR NE WI ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER NORTHERN WI ON
MONDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO BROKEN IFR/MVFR
CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON...IF NOT
LONGER...PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN. THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS
RATHER HIGH...A PERIOD OF CLEARING COULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT ANY CLEARING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO IFR/MVFR VSBYS
DEVELOPING. THEN 5000-7000 FT CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
504 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2015
TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D
REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COLORADO...MOVING TOWARDS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THUS...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING NICE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 25. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY EXPAND EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS SATURATES. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ROUGHLY NORTH OF A CHEYENNE TO ALLIANCE LINE.
TUESDAY...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH WORK
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED...SIMILAR TO THE QPF DEPICTION ON
THE NAM AND GFS. CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE CLOUD
COVER...RAIN AND COOLER THICKNESSES.
TUESDAY NIGHT...DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DECREASES AND LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WANE.
WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWEST USHERING IN COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIRMASS...AND THUS ONLY ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM OUR
NORTH...THUS DRY WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2015
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD IN NORTHWEST FLOW. COULD
ALSO SEE ONE OR TWO SHOWERS SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN
THE EVENING AS WELL. HOWEVER...ITS MORE LIKELY THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE TOO STABLE ACROSS THIS AREA FOR CONVECTION...SO LEFT
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL STEADILY WARM BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S
BY SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING IN THIS PATTERN.
WESTERLY WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE COULD BECOME A
BIT BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO MOVE THRU THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. AS A RESULT...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES COULD
RESURFACE WITH THE DRY...WARM AND BREEZY IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2015
PESKY STRATUS LOOKS TO HOLD ON IN THE PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AT
KAIA AND KSNY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING KAIA SOLIDLY IN THE
LAYER WITH KSNY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRATUS LAYER. WILL
NEED TO WATCH AS I WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. OBSERVATION
TRENDS SHOW CEILINGS LOWERING AT BOTH AIRPORTS...SO THIS MAKES ME
THINK THAT IT IS THERE TO STAY. HRRR DOES BREAK THEM BOTH OUT FOR
A TIME THIS EVENING...BUT DO BELIEVE IT IS TOO OPTIMISTIC. STRATUS
HERE AT KCYS LATER THIS EVENING AROUND 06Z WITH MORNING IFR
CONDITIONS AT KLAR AND KRWL.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2015
MINIMAL CONCERNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BASED ON
PROJECTED HUMIDITIES AND WINDS. HOWEVER...OVER THE WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP WITH LOWERING HUMIDITIES AND WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR HUMIDITIES AND WINDS ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN