Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/04/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
854 PM MST SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A PLEASANT SATURDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
STRONG...PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE BALLPARK OF SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN CA DROPPING DUE SOUTHWARD. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA
NEVADA PORTEND WHAT`S IN STORE FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...LATEST 00Z TWC SOUNDING SHOWED A PRONOUNCED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE MID-LEVELS...THOUGH THIS WAS NOT NEARLY
AS STRONG IN THE PHOENIX AREA BASED ON LOCAL ACARS SOUNDINGS.
HI-RES GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. NCAR WRF ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A LARGE AREA
OF MORNING INSTABILITY IN THE FORM OF LIFTED INDICES BELOW -2C. ADDITIONAL
SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST NAM-WRF SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE GOC WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHWARD THROUGH SONORA AND INTO
SOUTHERN AZ AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS NOT TOTALLY FAR-FETCHED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING TO BACK AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. AT THE VERY
LEAST...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IS ANTICIPATED FROM
PHOENIX EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING.
POPS WERE INCREASED...MAINLY ACROSS PINAL AND GILA COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS WILL STILL BE
IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STEADY STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SPANS
FROM SONORA INTO NM/TX AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PERSISTING ALL DAY ALONG THAT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY AXIS TO OUR EAST. WESTERN CONUS SATELLITE LOOPS FROM
THE AFTERNOON POINT TO THE LARGE AREA OF LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WITH A COLD AND VIGOROUS UPPER LOW WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH FROM
OR INTO CA/NV. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR UPCOMING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL AMPLIFY LATER THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER LOW SINKS INTO SOUTHERN CA...INTRODUCING LL JET WINDS OF
30-40KTS THROUGH THE 850-700MB LAYER AND DRAWING THE MOISTURE AXIS
BACK TO THE WEST...INTO AZ. SUOMINET IPW READINGS SOUTH OF THE
BORDER INDICATE 1 INCH PLUS VALUES ARE AVAILABLE TO BE DRAWN
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL BE A
TIGHT ONE WITH VERY DRY LOW AND MID LEVEL AIR JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
CA AND THE BAJA COASTS. ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SFC DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO CLIMB
BACK INTO FAMILIAR MONSOON TERRITORY WITH READINGS IN THE 50S. EVEN
RICHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR YUMA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CA...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME 60S FOR A PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS PUSHING 30 MPH ACROSS THE OPEN DESERT
AREAS. INCLUDED MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE TYPICAL DUST
PRONE AREAS ACROSS AZ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING
THE MIDDAY HOURS SUNDAY.
THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS THE GREAT POTENTIAL TO MAKE A FAIRLY DRAMATIC
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT PARTICULARLY
MONDAY. WITH A HEALTHY SHEAR PROFILE...30-40KTS AVERAGED OVER THE
VARIOUS PERIODS AND IN SOME MODEL FORECASTS PUSHING 50KTS AT THE
PEAK MONDAY...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM PHOENIX EAST SUNDAY...BUT MORE
LIKELY MONDAY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...STRONG
SURFACE WIND GUSTS...AND HAIL. HEIGHT FALL ORIENTATIONS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SUGGESTS MOST OF THE COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM
WILL COME FROM A STRONG (UNDERSCORE) VERTICAL MOTION. ALONG WITH THE
HEIGHT FALLS...COOLING ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING -14C... AND CLOUDS/RAIN COOLED ENVIRONMENT...SFC TEMPS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL COME IN BELOW NORMAL TO OPEN THE WORK
WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 80S.
WHAT REMAINS IN QUESTION WILL BE AREAL EXTENT OF WHERE THE LL
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT DIGS OVER SOUTHERN
CA...WHICH COULD LIMIT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME. THE SOUTHEAST CA AND WESTERN AZ DESERTS ARE NOT TOTALLY IN
THE CLEAR FROM SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY...BUT THE DEEPEST AND MOST
UNSTABLE MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKS TO SET-UP JUST WEST OF PHOENIX AND
THROUGH EASTERN AZ. INCREASINGLY STRONG ATMOSPHERIC SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR FAST MOVING AFTN T-
STORMS...AGAIN PERHAPS LATE SUNDAY BUT MAINLY MONDAY OVER A LARGE
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ INCLUDING PHOENIX. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILES ALSO FAVOR POSSIBLE HAIL ON MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS.
TODAY`S MODEL SOLNS STRUGGLE SLIGHTLY WITH THE AREAL EXPANSION AND
EVENTUAL EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM TO OUR EAST. WHAT WAS EARLIER
ADVERTISED AS A HASTY EXIT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE UPPER LOW
COULD STALL OUT TO OUR EAST AND IF THE EXPANSIVE COVERAGE OF IT
STRETCHES FAR ENOUGH WEST INTO AZ...WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOTS OF
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RESULTING PRECIP MAINLY FROM PHOENIX
EASTWARD FOR TUESDAY. IF THE MOISTURE SURFACE IS DEPLETED OR
SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER...ENHANCED EASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL AT
LEAST KEEP A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT IN THE AREA AND LINGERING COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...
DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM BACK INTO THE 90S...WHILE
POSSIBLY WORKING OUT A LATE SEASON 100F READING OVER THE WARMEST
WESTERN DESERTS AGAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND CLEAR INTO LATE EVENING HOURS FOR
ALL THE TERMINALS. BEGINNING OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO AZ
FROM THE SOUTH...INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE BY SUNDAY AM. INTRODUCED
SCT-BKN DECKS SUNDAY MID-MORNING ALONG WITH ELEVATED EASTERLY GRADIENT
WINDS. KIPL AND KBLH WINDS WILL FOLLOW DIURNAL HEADINGS...WITH ELEVATED
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FOR KBLH SUNDAY AM.
STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MOSTLY FOR THE PHX AREA TERMINALS...HOWEVER THE INITIAL
ROUND OF ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY EAST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY. ELECTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY WX COVERAGE WITH THE 18Z TAF
PACKAGE FOR THAT REASON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION...CONTINUING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
SHOWERS WHILE ALSO PROVIDING INCREASED HUMIDITIES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE FOCUS OF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY FOR
TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY...WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE CO
RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE A SLOW EXIT TO THE
EAST...KEEPING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FIRE DISTRICTS DURING THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD INTO THURSDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN
TO THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITY PERCENTAGES IN THE 20S AND GOOD
TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM
SLIGHTLY OVER THEIR READINGS FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOLTE/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
726 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. IT STILL APPEARS HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL TRACK FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE MONDAY TO LIMIT POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER THERE STILL IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT WARRANTS
JOAQUIN TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
725 AM UPDATE...
RAIN IS MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTH COAST REGION THIS
MORNING...ALONG AND S OF PVD-TAN-PYM WHERE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS
RESIDES. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER
ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR MA WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S. MODELS
SHOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY LIFTING N TODAY SO EXPECT RAIN TO
ADVANCE N ACCORDINGLY BUT GIVEN SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR THE RAIN WILL GET. HRRR BRINGS RAIN
ALL THE WAY TO MA-NH BORDER BUT THIS SEEMS TOO FAR N GIVEN THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE. CURRENT THINKING IS LIGHT RAIN WILL REACH BDL-BVY
LINE BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH FURTHER N GIVEN DRY AIR IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER. MEANWHILE...RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES CAPE/ISLANDS.
UPDATED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOTHER NATURES SQUEEZE PLAY ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES
WITH HIGH TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
FRONT HAS KEPT SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
THE FRONT WESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INCREASE THE
PRECIP CHANCES FROM SE TO NW. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE DRY AIR TO THE NORTH WHICH COULD LIMIT PRECIP FROM
ADVANCING TOO FAR NORTHWESTWARD. RIGHT NOW HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A IJD TO BVY HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
PRECIP. PRECIP AMOUNTS WONT BE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED...WITH 1-2 INCHES FOR CAPE AND ISLANDS...0.5 INCHES ON
A BOS TO HFD LINE. EVERYWHERE ELSE COULD SEE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS. AGAIN AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT THERE COULD BE A TIGHT QPF
GRADIENT DUE TO THE DRY AIR.
THIS SQUEEZE PLAY HAS ALSO INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION ALLOWING FOR STRONG NE WINDS. SEVERAL SITES ALONG THE
COAST HAVE GUSTED TO 40 MPH WITH A FEW SITES REACHING TO 45 MPH.
ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR THE
SOUTH COAST FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH THEY MAY COME UP SHORT TODAY...WITH
RECENT RAINFALL AND FULLY LEAVED TREES COULD SEE DOWNED WEAK TREES
AND BRANCHES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP
BADGERING THE COASTLINE TODAY CAUSING COASTAL FLOODING
CONCERNS...MORE DETAILS BELOW.
A COOL...RAW DAY WILL BE IN STORE AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT ANY WARM UP CHANCES FOR TODAY. ANTICIPATE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT PUSHING STALLED
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY WASHING IT OUT.
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE
PRECIP TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN
ALOFT TOMORROW MORNING. LIKE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...THIS
DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SATURDAY HOWEVER LOW LEVELS ARE
QUITE MOIST ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON SATURDAY BUT NOT BY A WHOLE LOT WITH
ANOTHER COOL...RAW DAY IN STORE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID
50S.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING
IN NORTHEAST WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 20-40 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH COAST FOR
TONIGHT AS 925 MB LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALLOW FOR MIXING. BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THE NE WINDS THERE
COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE SAT HIGH
TIDE...MORE DETAILS BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HURRICANE JOAQUIN LIKELY TO TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO LIMIT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR SNE
* DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH THU
OVERVIEW...
MAJORITY OF GLOBAL AND TROPICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE
OFFSHORE TRACK FOR JOAQUIN. GGEM TURNS JOAQUIN TO THE NW WITH
LANDFALL ACROSS NC AND THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND TROPICAL MODELS SUGGESTING A LANDFALL IN THE MID ATLC BUT THIS
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME AS A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE
FAVORS AN OFFSHORE TRACK AS BLOCKING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM WEAKENS.
02/00Z GFS TRENDED WEST AND WHILE STILL OFFSHORE BRINGS HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG WIND TO CAPE/ISLANDS LATE MON/MON NIGHT. ECMWF AND ITS
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH TRACK WELL OFFSHORE AND
MINIMAL IMPACT TO SNE AND UKMET HAS BEEN ON BOARD WITH THIS FOR THE
LAST 3 RUNS. WHILE ODDS FAVOR A MINIMAL IMPACT TO SNE...THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT A LOW PROB FOR SOME RAIN AND WIND
EXISTS FOR SE NEW ENG...PARTICULARLY CAPE/ISLANDS AS WE ARE STILL 96
HOURS AWAY IN THE MODEL WORLD. WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING LATER
MODEL TRENDS. LOOKING BEYOND JOAQUIN DURING NEXT WEEK...PATTERN
SHOWS LOW AMPLITUDE POLAR JET ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS WHICH SUGGESTS
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
DAILIES...
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
PERSISTENT STRONG NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING SUNDAY AS
GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD. MODELS INDICATE
GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING MOVING IN WHILE LOW LEVELS REMAIN NEARLY
SATURATED SO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. STILL CHILLY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.
MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT...FORECAST DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF JOAQUIN.
OFFSHORE TRACK BECOMING MORE LIKELY WHICH WILL LIMIT WIND AND RAIN
IMPACTS WITH DRY WEATHER...BUT STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT WE WILL
HAVE CHC POPS FOR CAPE/ISLANDS SHOULD JOAQUIN TRACK A BIT LEFT OF
MODEL CONSENSUS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TREND CONTINUES...MVFR E
OF THE IJD-BED-BVY LINE WITH VFR WEST. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH SOME IFR MIXED IN BY EVENING HOWEVER IT COULD EXPAND TO
INCLUDE CT VALLEY TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE...TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY
SAT MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-35
KTS. HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING BEFORE TURNING TO MORE DRIZZLE AREA WIDE.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-35KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR STRATUS WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE SAT NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR DURING SUN IN THE
INTERIOR. MVFR CIGS PERSISTING NEAR THE COAST. NE GUSTS TO 30 KT
NEAR THE COAST SAT NIGHT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY.
MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS GIVEN EXPECTED
OFFSHORE TRACK OF JOAQUIN. LOW PROB OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
CAPE/ISLANDS IF TRACK IS FURTHER WEST.
TUE THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS TODAY AND INTO
TOMORROW. HAVE ALLOW CONFIDENCE THAT BOSTON HARBOR WILL SEE GALES
SO HAVE EXTENDED THEIR SCA FOR NOW. NE GUSTS NEAR 30-40 KTS THIS
MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO 40+ KT GUSTS AT TIMES TODAY LASTING
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PERSISENT NW WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO REACH 12-
14 FT AT TIMES ON THE E OCEAN WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NE GALES SAT NIGHT WITH
GUSTS 35-40 KT...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUN.
MON AND MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. OFFSHORE TRACK OF JOAQUIN
WILL LIMIT STRONG WIND/SEAS IMPACTS. EXPECT SUB GALE GUSTS. LOW PROB
OF SOME RAIN FOR WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF ACK.
TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS DIMINISHING BUT LARGE SWELLS
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TODAY...PERSISTENT NE FLOW MAY CAUSE THE SURGE TO RISE A TAD MORE
AND BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.7 FEET ALONG THE MA E COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THIS ON TOP OF THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE AND WAVES OF 8 TO 12 FEET JUST OFFSHORE MAY CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE REACHES OF THE MA EAST
COAST. A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. ONE CONCERN FOR
NANTUCKET IS DURING HIGH TIDE...THEY COULD RECEIVE AN INCH OF TWO OF
PRECIP WHICH COULD SLOW RECESSION IN WATER LEVELS AS THE TIDE BEGINS
TO GO OUT.
SATURDAY...THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES GRADUALLY LOWERS BUT A
PERSISTENT NE OR E FLOW WILL PRODUCE A SURGE AROUND OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN 1.5 FEET ALONG THE E COAST. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD STILL SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WITH EROSION BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...IN ADDITION TO THE ARRIVAL OF SWELLS FROM
JOAQUIN MAY SERVE TO INCREASE THE SURGE ALONG SOME S COAST AREAS
ENOUGH FOR THE RISK OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THERE.
HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
JOAQUIN.
DATE / BOSTON HIGHEST TIDE / TIME
FRIDAY OCTOBER 2 / 11.5 FEET / 3:30 PM
SATURDAY OCTOBER 3 / 11.0 FEET / 4:06 PM
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR MAZ020>023.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ024.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>237-250-251-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KEY WEST FL
933 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST IN THE KEYS SERVICE AREA. DESPITE THIS...LATE EVENING
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN AGGREGATE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS ARE FRESH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AT ALL
REPORTING STATIONS...AND TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO THE 80 DEGREE MARK
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS THE FRESH MAINLY WESTERLY
BREEZES HAVE DEEPENED...AS HAS THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS.
HOWEVER...FROM 10000 FEET AND ABOVE...WE ARE STABLE AND DRY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING WINDS DIPPING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
BUT THE LOCAL HRRR SOLUTION DOES NOT DROP OFF AS SIGNIFICANTLY. BASED
ON PACE OF SHALLOW RAIN ECHOES ON THE KBYX UPSTREAM...THE LOCAL
SOUNDING...AND VWP...WILL KEEP HIGHER WINDS ADVERTISED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF...BUT ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. A ZONE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO
COVER THOSE SMALL CHANGES.
&&
.MARINE...
PER THE REASONING STATED ABOVE...WILL KEEP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA
KEYS. SHALLOW AND FAST-PACED SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SEPARATED
OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE INCORPORATED IN THE
LATE EVENING COASTAL WATERS UPDATED.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE PROMPTED A VCSH AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANY
SINGLE SHOWER SHOULD BE BRIEF...IF THEY AFFECT EITHER OF THE ISLAND
AIRPORTS DIRECTLY. VFR SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITIONS INTO LATE
SUNDAY. EXPECT WEST/NORTHWEST BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
FREQUENTLY ABOVE 20 KNOTS.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ076>078.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......DEVANAS
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
839 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Hi-res models continue to show very little QPF across the forecast
area through tonight. Given hi-res guidance and light returns on
radar, light rain/sprinkles will be possible through the night.
Thus have continued with the forecast trend overnight but expanded
the sprinkles across the marine area for the first half of the
night. The HRRR is indicating light showers returning to the
extreme northern part of the CWA late in the night and thus the
best chance for any measurable showers will be across the far
northern counties.
&&
.Marine...
Based on observations, increased the winds across the marine
zones. This brought wind speeds just above 15kts across the
western zones and thus included included a cautionary statement in
the last coastal waters update. This was not enough of an increase
to change the wave heights. No other changes were made to the
marine forecast.
Offshore flow will continue through much of the upcoming week.
The pressure gradient will tighten across the local waters late
Sunday through Monday as a weak surface low develops over the
central Florida peninsula. Winds may reach advisory criteria,
especially across the western legs Sunday night and Monday.
Otherwise, winds and seas should at least be elevated to
cautionary levels during that time and 15 kts or less through
the remainder of the period.
&&
.Prev Discussion [712 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
The mid-upper level low is forecast to slowly translate east-
southeastward and emerge off the northeast Florida coast Sunday
night. This feature will then lift rapidly to the northeast
through Monday night with deep layer ridging building in from the
west. At the surface, an east to west oriented surface trough will
drop down into south Georgia on Sunday and push south of our CWA
Sunday night. Much of our forecast area will be in a fairly dry
airmass aloft, with abundant moisture in the low levels. Thus,
mostly cloudy to overcast conditions will prevail with slight to
low end PoPs for most of our FA Sunday associated with the surface
trough. Monday will be dry. Temperatures will be mild, with highs
in the 70s to lower 80s and lows around 60.
.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
Deep layer ridging returns to the region through the work week
followed by an approaching upper trough and cold front to begin
the next weekend. Dry conditions are expected at least through
Thursday. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s, lows in the 60s.
.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Monday]...
MVFR to low VFR cigs this evening will lower to low MVFR
overnight. Although a brief period of IFR cigs are possible around
sun rise, this should be short lived if it does occur. There are a
few areas of light returns on radar, indicating -ra/-dz are
possible at TLH and DHN over the next few hours, however no
impact to visibility is expected.
.Fire Weather...
The chance of precipitation will remain low into early this week.
Despite the dry conditions in regards to rain, RH values will remain
above 50 percent and thus no critical fire weather thresholds are
forecast.
.Hydrology...
The Choctawhatchee River remains at action stage from Caryville
southward, but with Caryville cresting below flood stage yesterday
and no further significant rains expected, Bruce will stay below
flood stage as well with a crest occurring late in the day on
10/5. Elsewhere in the Florida Panhandle, the smaller tributary
creeks/rivers are continuing their downward trend.
River levels elsewhere across the region remain well below action
stages and with no significant rains expected for the next few days,
no further flood concerns are anticipated.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 59 77 63 80 64 / 10 20 10 10 10
Panama City 60 75 65 79 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
Dothan 57 72 62 76 61 / 20 20 20 10 10
Albany 58 72 63 75 61 / 20 20 20 10 10
Valdosta 59 76 62 78 63 / 10 20 20 10 10
Cross City 59 78 63 81 65 / 20 20 20 10 10
Apalachicola 61 75 64 79 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
Gulf.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FIEUX
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FIEUX
MARINE...BARRY/FIEUX
FIRE WEATHER...FIEUX
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1027 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...BUILDING SEAS/SURF EXPECTED TO START LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH...
.UPDATE...MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS BEGUN
TO SHOW ITS SLOW NORTHWARD TURN AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N/NNE INTO
TONIGHT. 06Z GFS AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA OFFSHORE FROM E
CENTRAL FL NEAR 999 MBS WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS BACKED TO THE NORTH
NEAR THE COAST. SCATTERED ATLANTIC SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY TOWARD METRO ORLANDO THIS MORNING WITH A
GRADUAL TRANSITION INLAND EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWER
BANDS. UPPER LVL SUPPORT LOOKS ADEQUATE TO RETAIN SLIGHT THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.COASTAL...MODERATE SWELLS TO 4 TO 6 FT WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES
TODAY WITH MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AROUND NOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS WHICH WILL BE A HAZARD FOR BEACHGOERS. BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT CONTINUES AND DETAILS MULTIPLE COASTAL HAZARDS. EXPECT
HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO GO INTO EFFECT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LARGE SWELLS INCREASING ON SATURDAY...SAT NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KDAB VCNTY TO METRO ORLANDO TERMINALS (KSFB-
KMCO) TRANSITION INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER SHRA CHCS FROM KVRB-
KSUA TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...INCREASE IN WINDS TO 12-15 KNOTS AT BUOY 41009 AND SEAS TO
6-7 FT CURRENTLY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF
THE CAPE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OFFSHORE. UPSTREAM WIND REPORTS TO 20-25 KNOTS AT ST AUGUSTINE
/SAUF1/ SO LIKELY SOME WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS OFF THE VOLUSIA COAST
WITH HRRR SHOWING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS IN THIS AREA. WILL GO
AHEAD AND RAISE AN SCA FOR NEAR SHORE ZONES FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
SEBASTIAN INLET WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WORSEN LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASING LARGE EAST SWELL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS AROUND 3.0 FT...
WHICH IS 0.2 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO
HOLD NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
REMAINING IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AS A NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL
LIKELY IMPEDE THE NORMAL NORTHWARD FLOW OF THE RIVER AT TIMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 84 68 83 65 / 50 20 20 20
MCO 87 69 83 67 / 50 20 20 20
MLB 87 70 85 69 / 40 20 20 20
VRB 86 72 84 69 / 40 20 20 20
LEE 85 66 82 67 / 20 20 20 20
SFB 85 68 83 67 / 50 20 20 20
ORL 86 68 84 68 / 50 20 20 20
FPR 87 69 86 67 / 40 10 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.
&&
$$
VOLKMER/BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
745 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
OCCASIONAL RAIN IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA. SOME DRIZZLE MAY LINGER
NORTH OF ROUTE 30 SUNDAY MORNING... OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FINAL DAY OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY DAWN SUNDAY...
WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
STRONG VEERING LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS ON KIWX VWP INDICATIVE OF WAA
AND ASSOCIATED UVM WHILE WATER VAPOR SHOWING SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAMING NW FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GRTLKS. COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES WAS RESULTING IN BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVE. IN ADDITION A MORE SUBSTANTIAL BAND
OF RAIN EXTENDING ALONG AN INVERTED TROF FROM ERN KY NORTH TO
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE IS FCST BY LATEST HRRR TO MOVE WEST INTO OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT. THUS... HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT. WAA OF NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT BUT HAD TO KNOCK DOWN LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON TEMPS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD THIS EVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
PERSISTENT UPGLIDE/MOISTURE ADVECTION ON I300K SURFACE LEADING TO
LOWERING CIGS E-W ACROSS CWA. CURRENTLY MARKEDLY STRONGER BAND OF
ISENT LIFT LIFTING NWWD INTO NWRN CWA AND WILL COVER WITH PRE-
FIRST PD. WITH TIME...FLOW ALONG ISENT SURFACE TO WANE OVERNIGHT
AS RIDGE CENTROID JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY FILLS AND SAGS SWD AND SC
COASTAL LOW/ASSOCD WITH SWRN GA MID LVL VORTEX WEAKENS AS CAT 4
JOAQUIN ACCELERATES NEWD...TRACKING SW-W OF BERMUDA SUNDAY PER
LATEST NHC FCST. POPS WANE TO SLIGHT CHC BY DAYBREAK. THOUGH HAVE
CONTD MENTION OF DZ POTENTIAL ACRS NORTHERN THIRD CWA SUNDAY AS
LIGHT UVM ASSOCD WITH I295K PRES GRADIENT/CROSS FLOW CURRENTLY
INTO MID OHIO VALLEY LIFTING NWWD. LIFT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN WELL
DEVELOPED DEEP SATURATED STRATUS LAYER PER PRIOR/WELL PERTURBED
BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVE/ERLY TONIGHT. NON DIURNAL WITH TEMPS NEAR
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING PER LOW LEVEL WAA THROUGH DAYBREAK. CONCERNED
THAT DEPTH/BREADTH OF STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO LIMIT
AM INSOLATION AND SQUELCHED MAX TEMPS ON SUN SLIGHTLY...THOUGH NOT
AS COOL AS MET GUID. SUSPECT ONLY FAR SERN CWA TO BREAKOUT
SUFFICIENTLY TO REACH NEAR 70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD UPSTREAM BEFORE A
BROAD UPPER TROF GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES LATE THIS WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS
AMPLIFYING TROF...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S. RAISED HIGHS A
LITTLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE
TO BETWEEN 10C AND 13C PER GFS. OTHERWISE...KEPT CHANCES FOR RAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
AGAIN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVE ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVELS CONT TO SATURATE AND AN INVERTED TROF OVER
OHIO MOVES WEST. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON SUNDAY
AS THE SE U.S. LOW MOVES EAST AND WIND FIELDS/MOISTURE ADVECTION
OVER OUR AREA DIMINISH.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
233 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
DENSE FOG MAY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE ON THE HIGHER PASSES NEAR THE VA
BORDER SUCH AS US 119 BETWEEN WHITESBURG AND CUMBERLAND AND POUND
GAP BETWEEN JENKINS AND WISE CO VA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
THE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTHWEST FROM THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE STATE...DRIVEN BY ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT IN ON
NORTHEAST FLOW. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND RAP13...AS WELL AS RADAR TRENDS. ALSO
UPDATED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. ALSO DID AN
UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO MAINLY REMOVE EVENING WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS EAST
KENTUCKY FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS THROUGHOUT EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...ADDING TO THE
CHILL. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A
MORE CONCENTRATED PATCH OF RAIN TAKING SHAPE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THIS AREA TO EXPAND NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH MOST PLACES SEEING MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...THOUGH
THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST SPOT FOR AMOUNTS NEAR OR
ABOVE A QUARTER OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL GO BASICALLY NOWHERE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW CURRENT READINGS IN
THE MID 50S...AND DEWPOINTS SIMILAR FOR THIS NEARLY SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT. ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG...PARTICULARLY ON THE RIDGES
OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THESE THOUGHTS IN MIND...
ALSO INCORPORATING THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AND CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS FOR THE T AND TD ONES. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY IN NORTHEAST/EAST
FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE. MOISTURE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
AT TIMES. THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH WAVES CROSS
THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE EAST WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF RAIN GOING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT A CONTINUATION
OF THE DAMP...COOL...AND CLOUDY PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
HOLD IN THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS NOT MUCH COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF COOL AND VERY WET...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GULF COAST PUMPS MOISTURE INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEXT TO NONE AND LIFT MINIMAL. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE SLOW MOVING...AS IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL TAKE QUITE A WHILE FOR
THE PRECIPITATION TO COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA. BASED ON CURRENT
THINKING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STEADILY LOWERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. EASTERN KENTUCKY
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE WEEK
SHOULD BE DRY AND PLEASANT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOK TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TO START...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AROUND 60
ON SATURDAY WHILE WE ARE SOCKED IN BY CLOUDS AND RAIN. A GRADUAL
WARM UP SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW PULLS
EASTWARD AND RAIN SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WE BEGIN TO
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IS A
REASONABLE EXPECTATION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE EVEN WARMER...AS THE RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED AND
SKIES GO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AROUND NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...WITH
VALUES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EACH NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL KEEP THE STRATUS
LOCKED IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. CEILINGS IN THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE...NEAR OR BELOW
AIRPORT MINS IN SOME CASES SHOULD IMPROVE BY THE 15Z TO 22Z
PERIOD...THOUGH THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOULD MOVE
IN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH CIGS AND OR VIS LIKELY DROPPING AGAIN.
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO
THE LOW CLOUDS...WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SHROUDED BY THE LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
633 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN CROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
622 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THANKS IN PART TO LOSS OF
HEATING. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS CONCENTRATED RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE.
THE 12Z RUN OF THE HI RES WRF AND HRRR DOING OK W/THE HANDLING OF
THE SHOWERS AND SHOWING THE TREND TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS(4500 FT) ACROSS THE REGION W/UPPER LOW
MOVING E ACROSS QUEBEC AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING N. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH CLEARING THIS EVENING W/MOISTURE STAYING PLACE
AT THE 850MBS LEVEL AND ABOVE 700MBS. THIS SHOWN WELL BY THE NAM12
SOUNDINGS W/NNE FLOW IN THE LLVL AND SW FLOW ALOFT.
LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL BE TRICKY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...BEING
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY SC EITHER DISSIPATES OR MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION. FOR NOW...WE TOOK LAST NGTS LOW TEMPS...AND REDUCED THE
N-S TOTAL DIFFERENCE BY ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEG...RESULTING IN A FCST
OF ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEG WARMER OVR THE COLD NW VLYS TO ABOUT 3 DEG
COOLER OVR DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH LITTLE CHG ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...FCST HI TEMPS SAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TDY...
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE SLOWLY WORKING SWRD TOWARD DOWNEAST AREAS
WHICH WILL HOLD ON TO CLD CVR THE LONGEST. WINDS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY LESS THEN TDY. WITH THE CNTR OF THE SFC HIGH APCHG NRN
PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT WITH MCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS...A MORE
DEFINED PATTERN OF RIDGE/VLY RADITIONAL COOLING OVRNGT LOWS
SHOULD EMERGE BY ERLY SUN MORN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE SKIES
WILL BE MCLR FROM EARLIEST IN THE PD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS
EXPECTED. HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE ONLY INDICATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOW VFR TO MVFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES MOST
OF TNGT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO UNLMTD VFR WORKING S TO N ACROSS THE
SITES LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN. AFTWRDS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FROM
SAT AFTN THRU SAT NGT.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTD SCA CONDITIONS XPCTD THRU SAT. ALTHOUGH WE
INDICATE AN END TM OF THE SCA AT 00Z SUN...SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONT OVR THE OUTER MZS050-051 BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED FOR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD AS JUAQUIN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
111 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2015
Area of low clouds will continue to progress westward into early
afternoon and will eventually begin to scatter out per the RAP RH
fields. With the clearing and the mixing, we should begin seeing
the wind gusts occurring. Highs in the middle to upper 60s still
look good for this afternoon.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2015
Relatively strong surface ridge extends from northwestern WI south-
southwest into north central OK. Gusty northeast winds can be
expected today due to the fairly tight surface pressure gradient
across the region. East-northeasterly low level, 850 mb winds will
bring increasing moisture and cloudiness westward into portions of
east central and southeast MO and southwest IL later today north-
northwest of the mid-upper level low and associated weak inverted
surface trough over the Gulf Coast states into the Tennessee Valley
region. These clouds along with weak low level cold air advection
and 850 mb temperatures of only about 8-10 degrees C over our area
will hinder daytime heating today. High temperatures today will be
a tad cooler than yesterday, and about 5 degrees below normal for
early October.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2015
Cutoff low forming over the southeast U.S. in the base of the
eastern CONUS longwave trof is forecast to wobble southeast over the
next few days and nights, and eventually interact with Joaquin as it
works its was north from the Bahamas. The very slow eastward
progression of this feature. along with the development of the upper
low over the southwestern U.S., means very little movement of
weather features across the central CONUS over the next few days and
nights. This atmospheric traffic jam will keep surface ridging
locked over the area tonight into Monday.
Low level moisture which begins to work into the area today should
increase tonight and into the weekend due to an intensification
of the easterly flow produced by the increase of the pressure
gradient between aforementioned surface ridge and lowering
pressures over the southeast U.S. 00z guidance supports earlier
model trends of indicating a westward surge of this low level
moisture, and plan view RH progs as well as forecast soundings
suggest this cloudiness gradually spreading west across the FA
tonight into Sunday morning. Have attempted to tweak temp trends
to reflect this increase in cloudiness, with clouds tending to
limit the diurnal swing in the mercury as they move into an area.
Can`t totally rule out a slight threat of showers with increase of
low level moisture, but at this point will keep forecast dry as
moisture is rather stratified with an apparent lack of any
pronounced dynamics/lift over the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Upper pattern over the CONUS should become progressive once again early
next week as the combo of Joaquin and southeast U.S. cutoff begin
to propagate up the east coast and into the western Atlantic.
Specifics of medium range forecasts remain rather chaotic, but
there does seem to be some agreement that remnants of low over the
southwest U.S. will press into the central CONUS by Wednesday
night/Thursday, so have continued some low PoPs during this time
frame.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2015
MVFR ceilings have moved out of KUIN and the St. Louis metro TAF
sites, but have moved into the KCOU. Expect these clouds to move
out of KCOU by 20Z. Expect some gusts this afternoon into the
18-25KT range with mixing before they diminish by 00Z with loss of
daytime heating. Clouds will move back into the area late tonight
and early Saturday with VFR ceilings. Gusty northeast winds are
expected once again by mid morning Saturday.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered clouds through this evening before
broken VFR ceilings move back into the area from the east
overnight. Gusty northeast winds will diminish this evening with
loss of daytime heating, but then increase again by mid morning
Saturday.
Britt
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 66 51 65 53 / 5 10 10 10
Quincy 65 44 63 47 / 0 5 5 10
Columbia 66 44 64 47 / 0 5 5 10
Jefferson City 67 44 66 47 / 0 5 5 10
Salem 66 52 63 53 / 10 30 20 20
Farmington 64 48 63 50 / 5 10 10 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1204 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2015
Area of low clouds will continue to progress westward into early
afternoon and will eventually begin to scatter out per the RAP RH
fields. With the clearing and the mixing, we should begin seeing
the wind gusts occurring. Highs in the middle to upper 60s still
look good for this afternoon.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2015
Relatively strong surface ridge extends from northwestern WI south-
southwest into north central OK. Gusty northeast winds can be
expected today due to the fairly tight surface pressure gradient
across the region. East-northeasterly low level, 850 mb winds will
bring increasing moisture and cloudiness westward into portions of
east central and southeast MO and southwest IL later today north-
northwest of the mid-upper level low and associated weak inverted
surface trough over the Gulf Coast states into the Tennessee Valley
region. These clouds along with weak low level cold air advection
and 850 mb temperatures of only about 8-10 degrees C over our area
will hinder daytime heating today. High temperatures today will be
a tad cooler than yesterday, and about 5 degrees below normal for
early October.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2015
Cutoff low forming over the southeast U.S. in the base of the
eastern CONUS longwave trof is forecast to wobble southeast over the
next few days and nights, and eventually interact with Joaquin as it
works its was north from the Bahamas. The very slow eastward
progression of this feature. along with the development of the upper
low over the southwestern U.S., means very little movement of
weather features across the central CONUS over the next few days and
nights. This atmospheric traffic jam will keep surface ridging
locked over the area tonight into Monday.
Low level moisture which begins to work into the area today should
increase tonight and into the weekend due to an intensification
of the easterly flow produced by the increase of the pressure
gradient between aforementioned surface ridge and lowering
pressures over the southeast U.S. 00z guidance supports earlier
model trends of indicating a westward surge of this low level
moisture, and plan view RH progs as well as forecast soundings
suggest this cloudiness gradually spreading west across the FA
tonight into Sunday morning. Have attempted to tweak temp trends
to reflect this increase in cloudiness, with clouds tending to
limit the diurnal swing in the mercury as they move into an area.
Can`t totally rule out a slight threat of showers with increase of
low level moisture, but at this point will keep forecast dry as
moisture is rather stratified with an apparent lack of any
pronounced dynamics/lift over the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Upper pattern over the CONUS should become progressive once again early
next week as the combo of Joaquin and southeast U.S. cutoff begin
to propagate up the east coast and into the western Atlantic.
Specifics of medium range forecasts remain rather chaotic, but
there does seem to be some agreement that remnants of low over the
southwest U.S. will press into the central CONUS by Wednesday
night/Thursday, so have continued some low PoPs during this time
frame.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2015
Persistent surface ridge extends from northwestern WI south-
southwest into north central OK with a tight surface pressure
gradient over MO and IL. Nely surface winds can be expected
through the forecast period, gusty at times during the late
morning and afternoon hours. Low level clouds at 2500-3500 feet in
height across southern IL will shift westward into the St Louis
metro area early this morning and possibly also into UIN as well.
These clouds will likely rise in height with diurnal heating.
Should also get the development of diurnal cumulus clouds across
the area late this morning and this afternoon as low level
moisture increases across much of the area.
Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds around 2500-3500 in height
across southern IL will advect westward into STL early this
morning. These clouds will gradually rise in height through the
day and may scatter out this afternoon with diurnal heating,
mixing and drying. Nely surface winds can be expected through the
forecast period, gusty at times during the late morning and
afternoon.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 66 51 65 53 / 5 5 5 5
Quincy 65 44 63 47 / 0 0 0 5
Columbia 65 44 64 47 / 0 0 0 5
Jefferson City 67 45 66 47 / 0 0 0 5
Salem 66 51 63 53 / 10 10 10 10
Farmington 64 48 63 50 / 5 5 5 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
850 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.UPDATE...
OUR EARLIER FORECAST UPDATE APPEARS ON TRACK AND SO WE HAVE ONLY
MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO TONIGHT/S FORECAST
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. IF ANYTHING...PRECIPITATION THAT/S
CENTERED OVER BILLINGS AT MID EVENING IS HOLDING TOGETHER A BIT
BETTER THAN HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT THIS POINT...BUT THE TREND
FOR DECREASING INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IS ON
TRACK AS VERTICAL MOTION DIMINISHES. AS A SIDE NOTE...IT APPEARS
THAT THE PRYOR MOUNTAINS COULD BE THE WINNER WITH SNOWFALL AS THE
PRYOR MOUNTAIN RAWS HAS BEEN REPORTING TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING
WITH NOTABLE PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. WE DON/T HAVE ANY GROUND
TRUTH REPORTS IN THAT REMOTE AREA THOUGH. SCHULTZ/DOBBS
PREVIOUS UPDATE...ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015...
WE HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT SO THAT THEY BETTER
ALIGN WITH RECENT RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. RAINFALL IS FOCUSED FROM
HYSHAM AND BILLINGS TO RED LODGE AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS LOWER
BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THERE AS OF 2330 UTC. THAT SCENARIO WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS SLOWLY WANING WITH THE MID-
AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR GLASGOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT PER THE 18 UTC NAM AND GFS AND
MORE RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...SO POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WERE REDUCED
CONSIDERABLY IN MANY AREAS AS WELL...LEAVING LOW-END LIKELY POPS
ONLY IN THE HYSHAM TOWARD MILES CITY AREAS THEN. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING THIS EVENING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH A GRADUAL TAPERING
OFF OVERNIGHT. KEPT POPS HIGH. SNOW LEVEL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 6500
FEET THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD LOWER TO NEAR 5 THOUSAND
FEET OVERNIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIMITED...BUT SOME
REPORTS OF A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7 THOUSAND FEET HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED. WOULD STILL EXPECT A DUSTING TO A COUPLE INCHES ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY NORTH FACING SLOPES...TONIGHT. FORCING
WEAKENS TONIGHT...SO THIS MAY LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
WEAK FORCING TO CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
STILL WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE
MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME IN
WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH ITS POSITION...SO BACKED OFF SOME
ON POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS. STILL THINK MAINTAINING
SCATTERED POPS IS WARRANTED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERING. WEAK
RIDING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY...AND THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY DRY
THINGS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. WARMER READINGS EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE. DID LOWER HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
MONDAY PER GUIDANCE AND WET GROUND FROM RAIN EVENT. TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER. BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. MODELS DIVERGE BY FRIDAY AS THE GFS SHIFTS THE RIDGE
AXIS WEST ALLOWING FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A DISTURBANCE TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MAINLY KEEPS THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY BUT
OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. OVERALL...IT
LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ALL AREA TERMINALS
WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND ISOLATED AREAS OF VISIBILITIES OF 3 TO 6
MILES....ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECTING ALL
TERMINALS TO REMAIN IN AT LEAST MVFR THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW.
ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN AND
AROUND KSHR AND KMLS. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING HOURS AROUND 15 TO 18Z AS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE
SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY BE FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. DOBBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/050 038/062 043/068 048/075 049/072 050/075 051/073
+4/R 21/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 033/050 036/065 041/070 044/074 045/069 046/073 046/072
33/R 21/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 12/W 11/U
HDN 042/053 039/065 043/071 046/076 046/074 047/077 048/075
93/R 11/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 044/055 039/064 044/072 050/075 048/073 049/076 049/073
62/R 11/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 043/056 040/065 045/071 049/075 047/073 048/076 049/073
63/R 11/B 01/B 21/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 043/055 039/061 043/069 047/071 046/070 046/074 048/071
62/R 11/B 11/B 22/W 11/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 039/054 038/065 042/071 044/075 043/074 044/077 044/074
55/R 11/B 02/W 21/B 11/B 12/W 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
535 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT SO THAT THEY BETTER
ALIGN WITH RECENT RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. RAINFALL IS FOCUSED FROM
HYSHAM AND BILLINGS TO RED LODGE AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS LOWER
BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THERE AS OF 2330 UTC. THAT SCENARIO WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS SLOWLY WANING WITH THE MID-
AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR GLASGOW. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT PER THE 18 UTC NAM AND GFS AND
MORE RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...SO POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WERE REDUCED
CONSIDERABLY IN MANY AREAS AS WELL...LEAVING LOW-END LIKELY POPS
ONLY IN THE HYSHAM TOWARD MILES CITY AREAS THEN. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS KEEP THE SHOWERS
GOING THIS EVENING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH A GRADUAL TAPERING
OFF OVERNIGHT. KEPT POPS HIGH. SNOW LEVEL LOOKS TO BE AROUND 6500
FEET THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD LOWER TO NEAR 5 THOUSAND
FEET OVERNIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIMITED...BUT SOME
REPORTS OF A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7 THOUSAND FEET HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED. WOULD STILL EXPECT A DUSTING TO A COUPLE INCHES ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY NORTH FACING SLOPES...TONIGHT. FORCING
WEAKENS TONIGHT...SO THIS MAY LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
WEAK FORCING TO CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
STILL WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE
MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS HAVE COME IN
WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH ITS POSITION...SO BACKED OFF SOME
ON POPS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THIS. STILL THINK MAINTAINING
SCATTERED POPS IS WARRANTED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERING. WEAK
RIDING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY...AND THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY DRY
THINGS OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. WARMER READINGS EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE. DID LOWER HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
MONDAY PER GUIDANCE AND WET GROUND FROM RAIN EVENT. TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY. A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANY UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER. BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. MODELS DIVERGE BY FRIDAY AS THE GFS SHIFTS THE RIDGE
AXIS WEST ALLOWING FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A DISTURBANCE TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MAINLY KEEPS THE RIDGE OVER MONTANA RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY BUT
OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. OVERALL...IT
LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF
THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
FOOTHILLS AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE AFTER 06Z BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OBSCURED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/050 038/062 043/068 048/075 049/072 050/075 051/073
+4/R 21/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 033/050 036/065 041/070 044/074 045/069 046/073 046/072
94/O 21/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 12/W 11/U
HDN 042/053 039/065 043/071 046/076 046/074 047/077 048/075
93/R 11/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 044/055 039/064 044/072 050/075 048/073 049/076 049/073
82/R 11/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 043/056 040/065 045/071 049/075 047/073 048/076 049/073
63/R 11/B 01/B 21/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 043/055 039/061 043/069 047/071 046/070 046/074 048/071
72/R 11/B 11/B 22/W 11/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 039/054 038/065 042/071 044/075 043/074 044/077 044/074
75/R 11/B 02/W 21/B 11/B 12/W 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
1009 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS FOLLOWING CURRENT
RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODEL PRECIP TRENDS. HRRR SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
BELIEVABLE SHOWING THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FIRST BAND OF
CONCENTRATED RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. ALSO FELT IT WAS BEST TO ISSUE A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND RESTRICT IT TO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WHERE THE GUSTIER WINDS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE
MODELS. GRANTED IT MAY ONLY BE NEAR THE DAM...BUT THAT WOULD BE
WHERE MOST PEOPLE USE IT AND THEREFORE MOST IMPACTFUL. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...FIRST BANDS OF RAIN BEGINNING TO
SPREAD OUT OF CENTRAL MONTANA IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. SO FAR NO ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN
REPORTED BUT RADAR ECHOS ARE INTENSIFYING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY AS STACKED LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER WYOMING. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO THE
EASTERN ZONES ALONG WITH SOME SURGES OF DRIER AIR TO SCATTER THE
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE INVERTED TROF
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW ...THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL STOP VERY CLOSE TO THE FACE OF FORT PECK DAM...RESULTING IN
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20
MPH.
STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA ON SATURDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LITTLE DRY SLOTTING TO OCCUR NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.
ON SUNDAY THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL BEGIN TO DRY
OUT OVER EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
COLD AIR WRAPS INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 0C IN CENTRAL
MONTANA. MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SNOW OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES...BUT GIVEN THE WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR MASS AND
BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION TYPE AS
JUST RAIN FOR NOW. EBERT
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE LONG RANGE PATTERN PLACES AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH 00Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES. LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD ENSURE COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
PREVAIL. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF KEEPING
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...THOUGH THE GFS WOULD SUPPORT SOME CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THIS SOLUTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SPLIT FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UNDERCUTTING A RIDGE PATTERN OVER
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.
BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL TRANSLATE EAST WITH TIME...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE BEING THE DOMINATING WEATHER FACTOR OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO PREVAIL AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WITH RISING HEIGHTS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES IN SOLUTIONS TO 500MB
HEIGHT PLACEMENT...LENDING TO REDUCED FORECAST CERTAINTY. WILL
LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AND HAVE HIGHS NEAR UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S WITH EARLY SIGNS POINTING TO A RIDGE-TYPE PATTERN REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MALIAWCO
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR...LOWERING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD RAIN BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION: PRECIPITATION BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WET CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
CIGS: STEADILY LOWERING FROM AROUND 10K AGL TO MVFR BY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VSBY: MAINLY VFR...BUT PERIODS OF 3-5SM MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
MODERATE RAIN THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS. GILCHRIST
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
1007 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE...
AN ACTIVE MORNING FOR CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL JET...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY GENERATED QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS WORKING NORTHEAST GRADUALLY WITH SHOWERS NOW
MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN ZONES. MORE ACTIVITY STILL TRAILING
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...SO RAISED POPS THERE TOO. BOTH
GFS AND HRRR HAVE A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND THIS CONFIRMED BY WATER VAPOR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE FROM THE BIGHORNS TO
WORLAND. BELIEVE THIS AREA WILL FILL IN AS THE AFTERNOON MOVES IN
BUT DID BACK OFF SOME ON POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. ADJUSTED
POPS TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND ABOVE DISCUSSION. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
CARRY PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SOLUTION. SHOWER AND SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALREADY WORKING UP INTO MONTANA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS WYOMING AND
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A GOOD UPSLOPE EVENT
INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AHEAD OF THE LOW SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO
LOOK GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT IN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY A WEDGE OF COLD AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES AS A REINFORCING TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA.
THIS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM
BIG TIMBER WEST. THIS WILL HELP COOL THE COLUMN FOR SNOWFALL.
HAVING SAID THAT...GIVEN HOW MOIST THE COLUMN IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL ENOUGH TO GET
ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EVEN WITH WET
BULB EFFECTS...TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE ABLE TO REALLY COOL
OFF. THUS HAVE LOWERED SNOW TOTALS FOR RED LODGE TO HALF TO ONE
INCH. ALSO SUPPORTING THIS IS WPC PROBABILITIES ARE 20 TO 30
PERCENT FOR 1 INCH OR GREATER AT RED LODGE.
HAVE NOT CHANGED TEMPERATURES MUCH. TODAY TEMPERATURES ONLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S AND FOR SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S TO
50S. REIMER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT WILL SEE WEAKENING
UPSLOPE AND EVEN LESS ORGANIZATION TO THE UPPER LEVELS DRIVING THE
MULTIDAY WEATHER MAKER. HAVE SNOW LEVELS MENTIONED AROUND 6500
FEET MSL SUNDAY MORNING AND KEPT A MENTION OF A HALF INCH OF SNOW
FOR RED LODGE AND A COUPLE OF INCHES OVER BEARTOOTH PASS. CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL BUT AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING LATER IN
THE DAY AS CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW ALOFT
WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND BUT NO FORCING PRESENT SO JUST
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. WILL BE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ONLY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS DIVERGE FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH GFS TURNING THE FLOW
ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY AND BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS IN FLAT RIDGING AND MAINTAINS WARMER TEMPERATURES.
BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF A KMLS-
KSHR LINE. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS
EVENING. SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAINLY BE OBSCURED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 050/053 041/051 039/064 044/068 047/072 049/072
6/W 78/W 74/R 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 060 046/051 036/050 037/066 041/070 043/071 044/069
7/W 89/W 73/R 11/B 11/B 11/B 21/B
HDN 066 051/055 042/053 039/066 043/070 045/074 046/074
6/W 77/W 63/R 21/U 11/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 064 049/056 044/056 040/067 043/069 047/074 047/074
7/T 57/W 64/R 21/B 01/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 067 048/058 044/057 042/067 045/070 047/073 047/074
7/T 67/W 63/R 21/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 061 046/053 044/056 040/064 043/068 045/069 046/071
7/T 46/W 53/R 21/B 01/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 068 048/056 040/055 038/068 042/071 044/073 043/074
6/W 77/W 74/R 21/B 11/B 21/B 12/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
206 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
IT LOOKS LIKE SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING ACROSS ERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL BE CARRIED NORTH INTO WRN NEB BY EARLY
AFTN. THIS MOISTURE WILL BECOME FOUNDATION FOR A SLOWLY
PROPAGATING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
THE ECM...RAP AND NAM MODELS APPEAR TO SUPPORT THIS FORECAST AND
QPF TOTALS OF AROUND 1/4 TO PERHAPS 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WITH LESS AMOUNTS WEST. GIVEN THE DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE BELOW 12KFT...THE FCST ONSET OF RAIN HAS BEEN DELAYED A FEW
HOURS. THE RAP MODEL APPEARS TO BE VERY FAST.
HIGHS TODAY RISE TO AROUND 60 WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. THE
RAIN TONIGHT WILL OPERATE ON DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO
PRODUCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
A CHILLY START TO SATURDAY EXPECTED WITH A WARM UP NEXT WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME THUNDER. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
POCKETS OF NEAR ZERO TO NEG LIFTED INDEX PROJECTIONS...WITH
FORECAST TO MENTION ISOLD T. THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WILL LIMIT MIXING AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE
50...AND COULD EASILY SEE SOME SITES HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES DOMINATE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...AS IT DIGS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARM AIR TO GET DRAWN NORTHWARD.
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS
DRYING OUT. LITTLE LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER SO EXPECT GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. THAT SAID...STILL SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS WITH
THE HIGH RH IN THE MID LEVELS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS
OF SPRINKLES. NO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
MONITOR. THE CLOUDS DESPITE WAA WILL LIMIT WARMING TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SUNDAY.
WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION FOR MID WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THE CWA...HOWEVER
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING GREATLY WITH TRACKING OF THIS LOW. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO LIFT THE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE THE EC
CUTS THE LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH SCENARIOS ARE
PLAUSIBLE DUE TO THE BLOCKY RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WITH
THIS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WILL LIMIT CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. AREAS OF STRATUS AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF A KVTN TO KLBF LINE LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
621 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
IT LOOKS LIKE SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING ACROSS ERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL BE CARRIED NORTH INTO WRN NEB BY EARLY
AFTN. THIS MOISTURE WILL BECOME FOUNDATION FOR A SLOWLY
PROPAGATING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
THE ECM...RAP AND NAM MODELS APPEAR TO SUPPORT THIS FORECAST AND
QPF TOTALS OF AROUND 1/4 TO PERHAPS 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WITH LESS AMOUNTS WEST. GIVEN THE DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE BELOW 12KFT...THE FCST ONSET OF RAIN HAS BEEN DELAYED A FEW
HOURS. THE RAP MODEL APPEARS TO BE VERY FAST.
HIGHS TODAY RISE TO AROUND 60 WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. THE
RAIN TONIGHT WILL OPERATE ON DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO
PRODUCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
A CHILLY START TO SATURDAY EXPECTED WITH A WARM UP NEXT WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME THUNDER. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
POCKETS OF NEAR ZERO TO NEG LIFTED INDEX PROJECTIONS...WITH
FORECAST TO MENTION ISOLD T. THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WILL LIMIT MIXING AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE
50...AND COULD EASILY SEE SOME SITES HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES DOMINATE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...AS IT DIGS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARM AIR TO GET DRAWN NORTHWARD.
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS
DRYING OUT. LITTLE LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER SO EXPECT GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. THAT SAID...STILL SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS WITH
THE HIGH RH IN THE MID LEVELS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS
OF SPRINKLES. NO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
MONITOR. THE CLOUDS DESPITE WAA WILL LIMIT WARMING TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SUNDAY.
WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION FOR MID WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THE CWA...HOWEVER
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING GREATLY WITH TRACKING OF THIS LOW. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO LIFT THE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE THE EC
CUTS THE LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH SCENARIOS ARE
PLAUSIBLE DUE TO THE BLOCKY RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WITH
THIS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WILL LIMIT CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
THE AREA OF MVFR CIGS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AND THEN MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...LOWERING TO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
IT LOOKS LIKE SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING ACROSS ERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL BE CARRIED NORTH INTO WRN NEB BY EARLY
AFTN. THIS MOISTURE WILL BECOME FOUNDATION FOR A SLOWLY
PROPAGATING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
THE ECM...RAP AND NAM MODELS APPEAR TO SUPPORT THIS FORECAST AND
QPF TOTALS OF AROUND 1/4 TO PERHAPS 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WITH LESS AMOUNTS WEST. GIVEN THE DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE BELOW 12KFT...THE FCST ONSET OF RAIN HAS BEEN DELAYED A FEW
HOURS. THE RAP MODEL APPEARS TO BE VERY FAST.
HIGHS TODAY RISE TO AROUND 60 WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. THE
RAIN TONIGHT WILL OPERATE ON DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO
PRODUCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
A CHILLY START TO SATURDAY EXPECTED WITH A WARM UP NEXT WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME THUNDER. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
POCKETS OF NEAR ZERO TO NEG LIFTED INDEX PROJECTIONS...WITH
FORECAST TO MENTION ISOLD T. THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WILL LIMIT MIXING AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE
50...AND COULD EASILY SEE SOME SITES HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES DOMINATE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...AS IT DIGS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARM AIR TO GET DRAWN NORTHWARD.
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS
DRYING OUT. LITTLE LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER SO EXPECT GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. THAT SAID...STILL SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS WITH
THE HIGH RH IN THE MID LEVELS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS
OF SPRINKLES. NO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
MONITOR. THE CLOUDS DESPITE WAA WILL LIMIT WARMING TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SUNDAY.
WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION FOR MID WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THE CWA...HOWEVER
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING GREATLY WITH TRACKING OF THIS LOW. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO LIFT THE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE THE EC
CUTS THE LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH SCENARIOS ARE
PLAUSIBLE DUE TO THE BLOCKY RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WITH
THIS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WILL LIMIT CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES WITH CIGS AROUND
10000 FT AGL. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH CIGS FALLING OFF TO
8000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10
KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS FRIDAY. SOME GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY, CLOUDY, AND COOL TODAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS RAIN MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA. RAIN MOVES BACK OUT
LATE SATURDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS
FEATURE, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK. HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAY OR MAY NOT
IMPACT THE GENERAL REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE
FORECAST TRACK FOR THAT SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, RECENT TRENDS
ARE FAVORING THAT THE STORM AND ITS IMPACTS, WILL BE EAST OF OUR
AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1010 AM UPDATE...
BROUGHT MAX TEMPERATURES MORE IN LINE WITH THE COOLER SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE, AS THICK CLOUD COVER IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND THIS MORNING.
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS FIELDS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.
330 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDY AND DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS ALONG THE
EAST COAST. AN AREA OF RAIN OVER MARYLAND AND DELAWARE WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO THE POCONOS THIS EVENING. THIS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALOFT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. RAIN MAY COME IN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH HRRR ONE OF THE FASTEST WITH MOST OTHERS WAITING
UNTIL EVENING.
WITH CLOUDS AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO
THE UPPER 50S. WARMEST IN SYRACUSE AWAY FROM THE THICKER AND
LOWER CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
IN GENERAL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST OR THE MODELS. RAIN
COMES IN TONIGHT AND LASTS INTO SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
NE PA. LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO SO SYRACUSE AND
ROME PROBABLY WILL GET NOTHING. RAINFALL TOTALS LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH IN THE FAR SOUTH OF NE PA.
RAIN PULLS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE SW. THIS RAIN
WELL AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE IN THE BAHAMAS AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE US. TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING FUNNELED NW INTO
AREA BUT BEING STOPPED BY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER SE CANADA.
DRY MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. UL LOW OVER SE US
MOVES OFF THE COAST WHILE HURRICANE REMAINS AHEAD OF IT TRACKING
SLOWLY NE. WARM SOME BUT STILL COOL WITH MORE SUN SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS JOAQUIN RACE NEWRD OVER THE WRN ATL HIPRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
SRN CANADA NOSES INTO THE FCST AREA FOR MON NGT. THIS SHD KEEP THE
PCPN GNRLY EAST OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE NE FLOW AND CAA SOME
LGT SHWRS PSBL AT TIMES. WV MVG THRU THE NRN LAKES SUPRESSES THE
RDG A BIT AND MAY CONT TO BRING SOME ISLTD SHWRS INTO THE REGION
LTR TUE INTO WED. BY THU...WV HAS PASSED AND RDGG RETURNS BRINGING
DRY WX TWRDS THE END OF THE PD. TEMPS SHD AVG NEAR OR SLGTLY BLO
NRML THRU THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HI CLDS CONT OVER THE AREA WITH A PERSISTENT NELY SFC FLOW. THIS
HAS CONTD THE VFR CONDS FOR THE TAF SITES. MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN CONTS TO CREEP NWRD AND WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SOME LGT PCPN
TO AVP...AND PSBLY ELM AND BGM LTR TNGT. CONDS SHD REMAIN
VFR...XCPT AT AVP WHER THE LL MOISTURE LYR WILL BE THICKER AND
RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LTR TNGT AND THRU THE END OF THE PD.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT AVP IN RAIN...AND PSBL AT ELM
AND BGM.
SUN - WED...GNRL VFR CONDS UNDER HIPRES.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1008 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY, CLOUDY, AND COOL TODAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS RAIN MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA. RAIN MOVES BACK OUT
LATE SATURDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS
FEATURE, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK. HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAY OR MAY NOT
IMPACT THE GENERAL REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE
FORECAST TRACK FOR THAT SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, RECENT TRENDS
ARE FAVORING THAT THE STORM AND ITS IMPACTS, WILL BE EAST OF OUR
AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1010 AM UPDATE...
BROUGHT MAX TEMPERATURES MORE IN LINE WITH THE COOLER SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE, AS THICK CLOUD COVER IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND THIS MORNING.
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS FIELDS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.
330 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDY AND DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS ALONG THE
EAST COAST. AN AREA OF RAIN OVER MARYLAND AND DELAWARE WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO THE POCONOS THIS EVENING. THIS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALOFT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. RAIN MAY COME IN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH HRRR ONE OF THE FASTEST WITH MOST OTHERS WAITING
UNTIL EVENING.
WITH CLOUDS AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO
THE UPPER 50S. WARMEST IN SYRACUSE AWAY FROM THE THICKER AND
LOWER CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
IN GENERAL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST OR THE MODELS. RAIN
COMES IN TONIGHT AND LASTS INTO SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
NE PA. LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO SO SYRACUSE AND
ROME PROBABLY WILL GET NOTHING. RAINFALL TOTALS LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH IN THE FAR SOUTH OF NE PA.
RAIN PULLS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE SW. THIS RAIN
WELL AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE IN THE BAHAMAS AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE US. TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING FUNNELED NW INTO
AREA BUT BEING STOPPED BY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER SE CANADA.
DRY MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. UL LOW OVER SE US
MOVES OFF THE COAST WHILE HURRICANE REMAINS AHEAD OF IT TRACKING
SLOWLY NE. WARM SOME BUT STILL COOL WITH MORE SUN SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 AM FRIDAY UPDATE... THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CONSENSUS IS TO TAKE THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD, WELL
OFFSHORE, ON MONDAY, THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THEREAFTER. ANY LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL TO START THIS PERIOD
SHOULD REMAIN EITHER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, OR PERHAPS
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN ANY EVENT, PROBABILITIES ARE
DECREASING WITH TIME THAT WE`LL SEE MUCH, IF ANY, ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA ON MONDAY.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS RAIN-FREE, WITH SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST, AND A DRY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
OCTOBER, WITH DAILY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS KAVP LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY, WHEN MVFR
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS, WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT
BY MIDDAY, WITH SOME 20-25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY KAVP,
KBGM, AND KELM.
.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM LOWER
CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
630 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY, CLOUDY, AND COOL TODAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS RAIN MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA. RAIN MOVES BACK OUT
LATE SATURDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS
FEATURE, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK. HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAY OR MAY NOT
IMPACT THE GENERAL REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE
FORECAST TRACK FOR THAT SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, RECENT TRENDS
ARE FAVORING THAT THE STORM AND ITS IMPACTS, WILL BE EAST OF OUR
AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDY AND DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS ALONG THE
EAST COAST. AN AREA OF RAIN OVER MARYLAND AND DELAWARE WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO THE POCONOS THIS EVENING. THIS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALOFT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. RAIN MAY COME IN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH HRRR ONE OF THE FASTEST WITH MOST OTHERS WAITING
UNTIL EVENING.
WITH CLOUDS AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO
THE UPPER 50S. WARMEST IN SYRACUSE AWAY FROM THE THICKER AND
LOWER CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
IN GENERAL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST OR THE MODELS. RAIN
COMES IN TONIGHT AND LASTS INTO SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
NE PA. LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO SO SYRACUSE AND
ROME PROBABLY WILL GET NOTHING. RAINFALL TOTALS LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH IN THE FAR SOUTH OF NE PA.
RAIN PULLS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE SW. THIS RAIN
WELL AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE IN THE BAHAMAS AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE US. TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING FUNNELED NW INTO
AREA BUT BEING STOPPED BY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER SE CANADA.
DRY MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. UL LOW OVER SE US
MOVES OFF THE COAST WHILE HURRICANE REMAINS AHEAD OF IT TRACKING
SLOWLY NE. WARM SOME BUT STILL COOL WITH MORE SUN SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 AM FRIDAY UPDATE... THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CONSENSUS IS TO TAKE THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD, WELL
OFFSHORE, ON MONDAY, THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THEREAFTER. ANY LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL TO START THIS PERIOD
SHOULD REMAIN EITHER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, OR PERHAPS
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN ANY EVENT, PROBABILITIES ARE
DECREASING WITH TIME THAT WE`LL SEE MUCH, IF ANY, ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA ON MONDAY.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS RAIN-FREE, WITH SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST, AND A DRY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
OCTOBER, WITH DAILY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS KAVP LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY, WHEN MVFR
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS, WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT
BY MIDDAY, WITH SOME 20-25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY KAVP,
KBGM, AND KELM.
.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM LOWER
CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
628 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY, CLOUDY, AND COOL TODAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS RAIN MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA. RAIN MOVES BACK OUT
LATE SATURDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS
FEATURE, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK. HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAY OR MAY NOT
IMPACT THE GENERAL REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE
FORECAST TRACK FOR THAT SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, RECENT TRENDS
ARE FAVORING THAT THE STORM AND ITS IMPACTS, WILL BE EAST OF OUR
AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDY AND DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS ALONG THE
EAST COAST. AN AREA OF RAIN OVER MARYLAND AND DELAWARE WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO THE POCONOS THIS EVENING. THIS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALOFT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. RAIN MAY COME IN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH HRRR ONE OF THE FASTEST WITH MOST OTHERS WAITING
UNTIL EVENING.
WITH CLOUDS AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO
THE UPPER 50S. WARMEST IN SYRACUSE AWAY FROM THE THICKER AND
LOWER CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
IN GENERAL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST OR THE MODELS. RAIN
COMES IN TONIGHT AND LASTS INTO SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
NE PA. LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO SO SYRACUSE AND
ROME PROBABLY WILL GET NOTHING. RAINFALL TOTALS LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH IN THE FAR SOUTH OF NE PA.
RAIN PULLS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE SW. THIS RAIN
WELL AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE IN THE BAHAMAS AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE US. TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING FUNNELED NW INTO
AREA BUT BEING STOPPED BY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER SE CANADA.
DRY MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. UL LOW OVER SE US
MOVES OFF THE COAST WHILE HURRICANE REMAINS AHEAD OF IT TRACKING
SLOWLY NE. WARM SOME BUT STILL COOL WITH MORE SUN SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 AM FRIDAY UPDATE... THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CONSENSUS IS TAKE THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD, WELL
OFFSHORE, ON MONDAY, THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THEREAFTER. ANY LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL TO START THIS PERIOD
SHOULD REMAIN EITHER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, OR PERHAPS
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN ANY EVENT, PROBABILITIES ARE
DECREASING WITH TIME THAT WE`LL SEE MUCH, IF ANY, ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA ON MONDAY.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS RAIN-FREE, WITH SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST, AND A DRY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
OCTOBER, WITH DAILY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS KAVP LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY, WHEN MVFR
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS, WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT
BY MIDDAY, WITH SOME 20-25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY KAVP,
KBGM, AND KELM.
.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM LOWER
CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
328 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY QUIET BUT COOL THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BACKS TOWARD THE
AREA BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT THE GENERAL
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK
FOR THAT SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN RECENT TRENDS ARE FAVORING THAT
THE STORM AND ITS IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 10 PM...SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IS
MOVING EAST OF THE POCONOS LATE THIS EVENING TAKING MOST OF THE
RAIN WITH IT. MEANWHILE DRY COOL AIR IS FILTERING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM NORTHERN NY. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY LATE THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT... JUST A BIT TOO WARM FOR ANY
FROST OR FREEZE CONCERNS IN OUR AREA. MEANWHILE... THICKER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST PA WITH
SHOWERS ENDING AND TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
QUICK UPDATE AT 5 PM FOR A BAND OF RAIN THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE POCONOS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND SHOWS RAIN TRACKING FROM THE POCONOS
INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. HAVE RAISED POPS IN
THIS AREA TO COVER FOR THIS AREA OF RAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS SKY COVER FORECAST AND
PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS SKIRTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS TO OUR SOUTH WITH A STRONG HIGH TO OUR
NORTH.
AS OF MID AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS PUSHING UP INTO NE PA TOWARD
SULLIVAN COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE. ELSEWHERE STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH OVER CENTRAL NY WITH ONLY THE N/W BREAKING
INTO ANY REAL SUNSHINE. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MOSTLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH, CLOUDS LOOK TO HAVE A
TOUGH TIME BREAKING UP OVER NY SOUTHERN TIER WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING INTO THE FINGER LAKES. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COOL...MAINLY
IN THE LOW 40S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 30S THROUGH COLDER SPOTS SUCH
AS THE CATSKILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH TO
THE NORTH. EXPECT ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY DAY FROM THE NY SOUTHERN
TIER SOUTH WITH SOME MORNING SUN FARTHER NORTH GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. MOST OF THE AREA STAYS DRY THOUGH STILL
CAN`T RULE A OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHER AREAS
FROM LUZERNE EAST THROUGH SULLIVAN COUNTIES DUE TO FRONT SITTING
OFF TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS STAY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEGIN TO PUSH
BACK TO N/W THOUGH TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS TO MAKE LESS OF A N/W
PUSH INTO CWA DUE TO STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH. THEREFOR BRING
LIKELY TO CAT POPS INTO NE PA BUT ONLY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 AM FRIDAY UPDATE... THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CONSENSUS IS TAKE THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD, WELL
OFFSHORE, ON MONDAY, THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THEREAFTER. ANY LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL TO START THIS PERIOD
SHOULD REMAIN EITHER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, OR PERHAPS
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN ANY EVENT, PROBABILITIES ARE
DECREASING WITH TIME THAT WE`LL SEE MUCH, IF ANY, ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA ON MONDAY.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS RAIN-FREE, WITH SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST, AND A DRY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
OCTOBER, WITH DAILY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION COULD BE KAVP LATER FRIDAY EVENING, WHEN
MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS COULD SNEAK IN FROM THE SOUTH.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT BY MIDDAY, WITH SOME 20-25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY KAVP, KBGM, AND KELM.
.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM LOWER
CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEPTEMBER ENDED WET AND COOL. THIS PARTIALLY REVERSED THE DRY WARM
MONTH. NO PRECIP RECORDS WITH THE 1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS. BGM AND AVP BELOW NORMAL AND SYR ABOVE. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR AVP THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER EVER. BGM NUMBER 2 AND SYR NUMBER
3.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/MSE
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
153 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY QUIET BUT COOL THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BACKS TOWARD THE
AREA BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT THE GENERAL
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK
FOR THAT SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN RECENT TRENDS ARE FAVORING THAT
THE STORM AND ITS IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 10 PM...SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IS
MOVING EAST OF THE POCONOS LATE THIS EVENING TAKING MOST OF THE
RAIN WITH IT. MEANWHILE DRY COOL AIR IS FILTERING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM NORTHERN NY. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY LATE THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT... JUST A BIT TOO WARM FOR ANY
FROST OR FREEZE CONCERNS IN OUR AREA. MEANWHILE... THICKER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST PA WITH
SHOWERS ENDING AND TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
QUICK UPDATE AT 5 PM FOR A BAND OF RAIN THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE POCONOS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND SHOWS RAIN TRACKING FROM THE POCONOS
INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. HAVE RAISED POPS IN
THIS AREA TO COVER FOR THIS AREA OF RAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS SKY COVER FORECAST AND
PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS SKIRTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS TO OUR SOUTH WITH A STRONG HIGH TO OUR
NORTH.
AS OF MID AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS PUSHING UP INTO NE PA TOWARD
SULLIVAN COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE. ELSEWHERE STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH OVER CENTRAL NY WITH ONLY THE N/W BREAKING
INTO ANY REAL SUNSHINE. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MOSTLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH, CLOUDS LOOK TO HAVE A
TOUGH TIME BREAKING UP OVER NY SOUTHERN TIER WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING INTO THE FINGER LAKES. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COOL...MAINLY
IN THE LOW 40S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 30S THROUGH COLDER SPOTS SUCH
AS THE CATSKILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH TO
THE NORTH. EXPECT ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY DAY FROM THE NY SOUTHERN
TIER SOUTH WITH SOME MORNING SUN FARTHER NORTH GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. MOST OF THE AREA STAYS DRY THOUGH STILL
CAN`T RULE A OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHER AREAS
FROM LUZERNE EAST THROUGH SULLIVAN COUNTIES DUE TO FRONT SITTING
OFF TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS STAY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEGIN TO PUSH
BACK TO N/W THOUGH TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS TO MAKE LESS OF A N/W
PUSH INTO CWA DUE TO STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH. THEREFOR BRING
LIKELY TO CAT POPS INTO NE PA BUT ONLY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF JOAQUIN AND THE EURO HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. NOW...LATEST
TWO RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...KEEP JOAQUIN OFFSHORE AS WELL...INCRSG CONFIDENCE THAT
THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FCST AREA.
DEEP ELY FLOW AHD OF JOAQUIN WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE BLKG RDG OVER THE NE LIMITS IT/S NWRD
EXTENT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD RCH THE NY/PA BRDR 12Z
SAT...BUT RDGG FROM THE NORTH PUSHES SWRD AFT 00Z SUN KEEPING THE
AREA GNRLY DRY INTO MON. SOME WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW IN THE FORM OF
AN INV TROF MAY ALLOW SOME LGTR PCPN TO LIFT INTO WRN NY AND MAY
BRING SOME LGT SHWRS TO THE SW ZONES.
WLY/S GRAB JOAQUIN ON MON AND TUE AND EJECT IT EWRD. WLY FLOW OVER
THE FCST AREA WILL BRING A SHRT WV THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE AREA WED BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHWRS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION COULD BE KAVP LATER FRIDAY EVENING, WHEN
MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS COULD SNEAK IN FROM THE SOUTH.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT BY MIDDAY, WITH SOME 20-25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY KAVP, KBGM, AND KELM.
.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM LOWER
CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEPTEMBER ENDED WET AND COOL. THIS PARTIALLY REVERSED THE DRY WARM
MONTH. NO PRECIP RECORDS WITH THE 1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS. BGM AND AVP BELOW NORMAL AND SYR ABOVE. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR AVP THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER EVER. BGM NUMBER 2 AND SYR NUMBER
3.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ/MSE
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1103 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LIFE THREATENING FLOODING MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS RIFLED INTO THE CAROLINAS BY A POWERFUL UPPER LOW. A
DRYING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY. RIVER FLOODING WILL WORSEN
INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD LIKE
TO EMPHASIS THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE UPCOMING FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IN
SOME CASES...IT MAY BE UNPRECEDENTED IN THIS AREA SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN. THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED OR IN MANY AREAS FLOODED
FROM WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS...IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND OVER A FOOT IN A FEW SPOTS...IN THE LAST 24 TO 36
HOURS. THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF A FEW SINKHOLES ACROSS
THE AREA.
THE ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN MAY
CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ON A LARGE SCALE.
ROADS...BRIDGES AND STRUCTURES WILL ALL BE VULNERABLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS
LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. INFRASTRUCTURE THAT NORMALLY
CONTROLS THE FLOW OF WATER SUCH AS DAMS...LEVEES AND CULVERTS MAY
FAIL DUE TO THE HIGH AND STRONG FORCES OF RISING WATER.
BE SURE ALL STORM DRAINS ARE FREE OF DEBRIS...THIS MAY HELP TO
DIMINISH THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY FLOODS IN YOUR COMMUNITY. WE ARE
EXPECTING MANY ROADS WILL BECOME UNSAFE FOR TRAVEL. IN
ADDITION...OBEY ALL ROAD CLOSURE AND DETOUR SIGNS...THEY HAVE
BEEN POSTED FOR YOUR SAFETY. DO NOT CROSS ANY ROADWAY THAT IS
COVERED BY FLOWING WATER...IT MAY BE UNSAFE FOR TRAVEL.IF YOU DO
NOT NEED TO TRAVEL...STAY OFF THE ROADS. IF YOU LIVE NEAR STREAMS
OR RETENTION PONDS...YOU MAY WANT TO CONSIDER A SAFER PLACE TO
RETREAT SHOULD YOU NEED TO EVACUATE DUE TO RISING WATER. REMEMBER
NIGHTTIME FLOODING IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS SINCE YOU WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO SEE THE RAPIDITY OF THE WATER RISE.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WAS HELPING TO
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER N. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAY BE
EXTENDED INTO MONDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH
AND THIS COUPLED WITH SATURATED TO FLOODED GROUND WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN SOME TREES AND POWER LINES. THE RISK WILL
INCREASE AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO BE
SPOTTY...BUT STILL HEAVY IN PLACES. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN...COINCIDING WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...HAS SHIFTED JUST O
THE S AND W OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN THIS EVE. THIS MODEL IS CONFIRMING OUR PREVIOUS
THINKING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN BEGINNING TO MAKE A SHIFT BACK
TO THE N OVERNIGHT. WILL SHOW THIS TREND IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND THE HIGHEST QPF RETURNING TO THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE GRAND STRAND LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HISTORIC AND LIFE THREATENING FLOODING
EXPECTED.
DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL CREATING A VERY FOCUSED AND INTENSE
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIGHT NOW THE
EXTREME RAINS ARE SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. EVEN IN ITS
FORMATIVE STAGES LAST EVENING THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER LEAD TO SOME
TERRIFYING RAINFALL RATES AND SERIOUS FLOODING MOST NOTABLY IN
LITTLE RIVER/NORTH MYRTLE BEACH AREA AS WELL AS PARTS OF DARLINGTON
COUNTY. REFER TO PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT/PNSILM FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS WELL AS LOCAL STORM REPORTS/LSRILM FOR FLOODING INFO.
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THIS CHANNEL THE LOCAL RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN
IMPRESSIVE. DURING THE HOUR OF 17Z KILM REPORTED 0.31" OF RAIN IN
16 MINUTES. SUCH RAINFALL RATES ARE OFTEN VASTLY UNDERDONE IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. AND SPEAKING OF MODEL UNCERTAINTIES GUIDANCE ALSO OFTEN
STRUGGLES WITH HANDLING OF SYSTEMS THAT ARE SO DEEPLY CUT OFF FROM
STEERING FLOW. THAT SAID THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
OF THE HEAVIEST QPF BUT THIS WILL REALLY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SLIGHT
REDUCTION OVER FAR NW ZONES (THOUGH THE WRF BEGS TO DIFFER). IT IS
IN THESE ZONES WHERE THE LOWER PORTION OF "ONLY" 3-5 INCHES MAY
FALL. HOWEVER THE VERY NARROW AND FOCUSED NATURE OF THE RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO A STRONG GRADIENT IN QPF AS ONE HEADS INLAND.
AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD THIS LOW LEVEL FIRE HOSE OF
MOISTURE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE LOW...MOVING NORTHWARD AND ALSO
TAKING ON AN EVENTUAL NE TO SW ORIENTATION...ALL WHILE MAINTAINING A
CONNECTION WITH JOAQUIN. IN ADDITION TO THE SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE OVERALL SENSE OF TIMING, WHICH IS
USUALLY A GOOD CALL WITH CUTOFF LOWS. IN FACT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE END OF THE EVENT, WHICH WILL BE IN THE CAPE
FEAR/WILMINGTON AREAS LAST INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
GENERAL FORECAST QPF CALLS FOR 3-5" ACROSS MOST OF NW AND NORTHERN
SC COUNTIES BUT 5-7" CAPE FEAR COAST DUE LONG PERIOD OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE ADDITIONAL 5-7" AND LIKELY 7-10" SRN GTOWN AND
WILLIAMSBURG LIKELY. THESE AMOUNTS CAN EASILY BEEN A MONTH`S WORTH
MOST TIMES OF THE YEAR IN AND OF THEMSELVES BUT FOLLOWING THE MAJOR
FLOODING ISSUES FROM YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL THE 3 DAY TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
SCENARIO. THIS WILL HOLD MOST TRUE WHERE MESOSCALE PROCESSES (WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED THIS FAR OUT) LEAD TO THE LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER
RAIN TOTALS AS OCCURRED IN PLACES LIKE LITTLE RIVER LAST EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE
OVERALL GREATLY IMPROVED AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THE LONG TERM. A DEEP DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE UPPER
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF OUR WET WEATHER EJECTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODERATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH TONIGHT...AS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR SUNDAY MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD.
EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR HIGHER...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE...THUS WARRANTING A WIND ADVISORY.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE
AN PUSH INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
MIXTURE OF RESTRICTIONS THIS EVENING...INCLUDING VFR...MVFR...AND
IFR. AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASE AND THE AXIS OF RAINFALL PUSHES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE A DETERIORATION OF
CONDITIONS TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/TEMPO IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS...PATCHY
FOG...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...WITH MVFR/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY WITH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM SATURDAY...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS WHILE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WE HAVE
INCREASED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS TO 25 TO 30 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE EASTERLY. A STRONG AND PERSISTENT 9 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY
SWELL IN COMBINATION WITH THE WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
7 TO 11 FT RANGE AND AS HIGH AS 12 OR 13 FT NEAR FRYING PAN
SHOALS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A STRONG GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ON
SUNDAY BETWEEN A HUGE HIGH NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND STATES AND THE
WELL OFFSHORE JOAQUIN AS WELL AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ONLY VERY
SLOWLY DEVELOPING JUST OFF SC/GA COASTLINES. BY MONDAY JOAQUIN
WILL BE ACCELERATING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST BUT THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH IS RELATIVELY MAINTAINED AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIVING
THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW TO EXIT. SEAS FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY, SWAN, AND WNA GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...WE
EXPECT DECREASING WINDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO LESS
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1100 PM SATURDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIDE AT ALL THE BEACHES AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 1 AM AT THE BEACHES AND
3 AM IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING WITH
WATER RUNNING WELL UP ONTO THE BEACHES AND RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
BEACH EROSION.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ054-056.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-
110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ106-108-
110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...SGL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
848 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LIFE THREATENING FLOODING MAY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS RIFLED INTO THE CAROLINAS BY A POWERFUL UPPER
LOW. A DRYING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY. RIVER FLOODING WILL
WORSEN INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD LIKE TO
EMPHASIS THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE UPCOMING FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IN
SOME CASES...IT MAY BE UNPRECEDENTED IN THIS AREA SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN. THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED OR IN MANY AREAS FLOODED
FROM WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS...IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND OVER A FOOT IN A FEW SPOTS...IN THE LAST 24 TO 36
HOURS. THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF A FEW SINKHOLES ACROSS
THE AREA.
THE ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN MAY
CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ON A LARGE SCALE.
ROADS...BRIDGES AND STRUCTURES WILL ALL BE VULNERABLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS
LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. INFRASTRUCTURE THAT NORMALLY
CONTROLS THE FLOW OF WATER SUCH AS DAMS...LEVEES AND CULVERTS MAY
FAIL DUE TO THE HIGH AND STRONG FORCES OF RISING WATER.
BE SURE ALL STORM DRAINS ARE FREE OF DEBRIS...THIS MAY HELP TO
DIMINISH THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY FLOODS IN YOUR COMMUNITY. WE ARE
EXPECTING MANY ROADS WILL BECOME UNSAFE FOR TRAVEL. IN
ADDITION...OBEY ALL ROAD CLOSURE AND DETOUR SIGNS...THEY HAVE
BEEN POSTED FOR YOUR SAFETY. DO NOT CROSS ANY ROADWAY THAT IS
COVERED BY FLOWING WATER...IT MAY BE UNSAFE FOR TRAVEL.IF YOU DO
NOT NEED TO TRAVEL...STAY OFF THE ROADS. IF YOU LIVE NEAR STREAMS
OR RETENTION PONDS...YOU MAY WANT TO CONSIDER A SAFER PLACE TO
RETREAT SHOULD YOU NEED TO EVACUATE DUE TO RISING WATER. REMEMBER
NIGHTTIME FLOODING IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS SINCE YOU WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO SEE THE RAPIDITY OF THE WATER RISE.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WAS HELPING TO
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER N. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAY BE
EXTENDED INTO MONDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH
AND THIS COUPLED WITH SATURATED TO FLOODED GROUND WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN SOME TREES AND POWER LINES. THE RISK WILL
INCREASE AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO BE
SPOTTY...BUT STILL HEAVY IN PLACES. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN...COINCIDING WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...HAS SHIFTED SOUTH
AND W OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN THIS EVE. THIS MODEL IS CONFIRMING OUR PREVIOUS
THINKING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN BEGINNING TO MAKE A SHIFT BACK
TO THE N TOWARD MORNING. WILL SHOW THIS TREND IN OUR GRIDDED
FORECAST WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND THE HIGHEST QPF RETURNING TO
THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE GRAND STRAND LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HISTORIC AND LIFE THREATENING FLOODING
EXPECTED.
DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL CREATING A VERY FOCUSED AND INTENSE
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIGHT NOW THE
EXTREME RAINS ARE SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. EVEN IN ITS
FORMATIVE STAGES LAST EVENING THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER LEAD TO SOME
TERRIFYING RAINFALL RATES AND SERIOUS FLOODING MOST NOTABLY IN
LITTLE RIVER/NORTH MYRTLE BEACH AREA AS WELL AS PARTS OF DARLINGTON
COUNTY. REFER TO PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT/PNSILM FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS WELL AS LOCAL STORM REPORTS/LSRILM FOR FLOODING INFO.
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THIS CHANNEL THE LOCAL RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN
IMPRESSIVE. DURING THE HOUR OF 17Z KILM REPORTED 0.31" OF RAIN IN
16 MINUTES. SUCH RAINFALL RATES ARE OFTEN VASTLY UNDERDONE IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. AND SPEAKING OF MODEL UNCERTAINTIES GUIDANCE ALSO OFTEN
STRUGGLES WITH HANDLING OF SYSTEMS THAT ARE SO DEEPLY CUT OFF FROM
STEERING FLOW. THAT SAID THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
OF THE HEAVIEST QPF BUT THIS WILL REALLY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SLIGHT
REDUCTION OVER FAR NW ZONES (THOUGH THE WRF BEGS TO DIFFER). IT IS
IN THESE ZONES WHERE THE LOWER PORTION OF "ONLY" 3-5 INCHES MAY
FALL. HOWEVER THE VERY NARROW AND FOCUSED NATURE OF THE RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO A STRONG GRADIENT IN QPF AS ONE HEADS INLAND.
AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD THIS LOW LEVEL FIRE HOSE OF
MOISTURE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE LOW...MOVING NORTHWARD AND ALSO
TAKING ON AN EVENTUAL NE TO SW ORIENTATION...ALL WHILE MAINTAINING A
CONNECTION WITH JOAQUIN. IN ADDITION TO THE SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE OVERALL SENSE OF TIMING, WHICH IS
USUALLY A GOOD CALL WITH CUTOFF LOWS. IN FACT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE END OF THE EVENT, WHICH WILL BE IN THE CAPE
FEAR/WILMINGTON AREAS LAST INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
GENERAL FORECAST QPF CALLS FOR 3-5" ACROSS MOST OF NW AND NORTHERN
SC COUNTIES BUT 5-7" CAPE FEAR COAST DUE LONG PERIOD OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE ADDITIONAL 5-7" AND LIKELY 7-10" SRN GTOWN AND
WILLIAMSBURG LIKELY. THESE AMOUNTS CAN EASILY BEEN A MONTH`S WORTH
MOST TIMES OF THE YEAR IN AND OF THEMSELVES BUT FOLLOWING THE MAJOR
FLOODING ISSUES FROM YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL THE 3 DAY TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
SCENARIO. THIS WILL HOLD MOST TRUE WHERE MESOSCALE PROCESSES (WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED THIS FAR OUT) LEAD TO THE LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER
RAIN TOTALS AS OCCURRED IN PLACES LIKE LITTLE RIVER LAST EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE
OVERALL GREATLY IMPROVED AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THE LONG TERM. A DEEP DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE UPPER
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF OUR WET WEATHER EJECTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODERATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH TONIGHT...AS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR SUNDAY MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD.
EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR HIGHER...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE...THUS WARRANTING A WIND ADVISORY.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE
AN PUSH INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
MIXTURE OF RESTRICTIONS THIS EVENING...INCLUDING VFR...MVFR...AND
IFR. AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASE AND THE AXIS OF RAINFALL PUSHES
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE A DETERIORATION OF
CONDITIONS TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/TEMPO IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS...PATCHY
FOG...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...WITH MVFR/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY WITH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM SATURDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
WE HAVE INCREASED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS TO 25 TO 30 KT. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY. A STRONG AND PERSISTENT 9 TO 11 SECOND
EASTERLY SWELL IN COMBINATION WITH THE WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE 7 TO 10 FT RANGE AND AS HIGH AS 12 FT NEAR FRYING
PAN SHOALS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A STRONG GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ON
SUNDAY BETWEEN A HUGE HIGH NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND STATES AND THE
WELL OFFSHORE JOAQUIN AS WELL AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ONLY VERY
SLOWLY DEVELOPING JUST OFF SC/GA COASTLINES. BY MONDAY JOAQUIN
WILL BE ACCELERATING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST BUT THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH IS RELATIVELY MAINTAINED AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIVING
THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW TO EXIT. SEAS FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY, SWAN, AND WNA GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...WE
EXPECT DECREASING WINDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO LESS
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT TIDE AT ALL THE BEACHES AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 1 AM AT THE BEACHES AND 3 AM
IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING WITH
WATER RUNNING WELL UP ONTO THE BEACHES AND RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
BEACH EROSION.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR SCZ054-056.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-
110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...DL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY AND FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
FORECAST OF RAIN FOR EVERYONE (HEAVIER EAST AND LIGHTER WEST
INITIALLY... SHIFTING TO HEAVIER WEST LATER TODAY) AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE NE STILL LOOK GOOD... BUT SHORT TERM TRENDS REGARDING
AREAS OF PRIME HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE BEING MONITORED. HEAVIEST RAIN
IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA... WITH ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE WRN AND SW PIEDMONT ATTM. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
ABOUT THE EVENTUAL FATE OF HEAVY RAIN STREAMING JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA... OVER COASTAL NC AND ADJACENT AREAS JUST INLAND...
WHICH WE`VE BEEN EXPECTING TO PIVOT WESTWARD AND TRACK THROUGH
CENTRAL NC TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MESO LOW NOW TRACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN HAS IN ITS WAKE SOME WEAK RELATIVE
SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN RAINFALL INTENSITY TO ITS SOUTH
IN RECENT HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR HINTS AT THIS BUT ALSO SHOWS
RAINFALL FILLING BACK IN TO OUR SOUTH BETWEEN MYR AND CHS HEADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... SO FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE
RELATIVE LULL WILL BE TEMPORARY... AS THE INTENSE UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND HIGH WATER CONTENT WITH DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PROMPT
CONTINUED RAIN DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR TAKES THIS STREAM OF WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TOWARD THE WNW AND THROUGH CENTRAL NC BETWEEN
1 PM AND 8 PM... WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH OUR PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
REGARDING THE TIME OF GREATEST HEAVY RAIN RISK. WIND ADVISORY IS
LEFT AS IS... WITH THE WET SOIL AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING ROOT
STRUCTURES ALREADY CAUSING THE DOWNING OF NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IN THE LAST 12 HRS. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE WELL BELOW
TYPICAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA... HOWEVER FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30-40
MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 AM:
OVERVIEW: AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STALL IN VICINITY OF THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT...AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN
TRACKS SLOWLY NW/N THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST (FROM THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL LOW) INTO THE CAROLINAS...MID-LEVEL (700-500 MB) WARM
ADVECTION...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEP /TROPICAL/ MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5" (WEST) TO 2.2" (EAST)
ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN OBSERVED OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING.
TODAY/TONIGHT: EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TODAY AS 925-850 MB FLOW BACKS/STRENGTHENS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST (IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING SSE TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE)...RESULTING IN STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION /ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION/ ATOP A
PRONOUNCED CAD WEDGE AS H85 DEWPOINTS RISE TO 16-18C AND PWAT VALUES
INCREASE TO 2.00-2.25". THE HIGHEST PRECIP RATES WILL BE FOUND IN
POCKETS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER WARM
CONVEYER-BELT PRECIPITATION ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
FLOODING: 2-4" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 12Z SAT. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
WILL FALL WEST OF HWY 1 OVER THE MORE VARIED TOPOGRAPHY OF THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST.
WIND: MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 25-35 KT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN A
SHALLOW (2000 FT AGL) MIXED LAYER ATTENDANT STEEP SFC-900 MB LAPSE
RATES ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION AT THE BASE OF THE CAD WEDGE.
OCCASIONAL NORTHEAST GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFT/EVE WHEN INTENSE PRECIP
LOADING ASSOC/W ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY ALLOW DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT OF STRONGER FLOW /35-45 KT/ ATTENDANT A LOW-LEVEL SPEED
MAX PROGGED NEAR THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT ~900 MB. GIVEN
SATURATED SOIL AND HEAVY RAIN...DOWNED TREES AND SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. INDEED...REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED IN THE TRIAD AREA AND PORTIONS OF
THE TRIANGLE. WITH THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES BECOMING
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS THIS AFT/EVE...
DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THE
ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS A POSITION ACROSS
THE NE U.S. THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE AN ABNORMALLY
STRONG/PERSISTENT EAST-NE FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS.
LATEST ECMWF REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN ITS DEPICTION OF A MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE IN VICINITY OF THE SC-NC BORDER...DRIFTING EAST AS
THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THUS...EXPECT A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR A STEADY/MODERATE RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SUNDAY-EARLY MONDAY WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.
PLAN TO TIER POPS FROM CATEGORICAL SOUTH TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH.
WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SET-
UP...OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS AXIS.
CURRENTLY PREDICTING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS 1-2 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. A SHIFT IN THE
HEAVY RAIN AXIS IN EITHER DIRECTION WILL IMPACT THESE AMOUNTS. BASED
ON WHAT OCCURS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NC BEYOND
ITS CURRENT LATE SUNDAY EXPIRATION.
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT TO
THE MID 70S FAR SE WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ORIGINATE OFF THE GULF
STREAM. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE MONDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION YIELDING MAX TEMPS MID 60S NW TO
NEAR 70 SE. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MID-
UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS COMMENCE AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW SCOOT EASTWARD. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL AID TO END LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND
TO SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD COVER. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS MORE OF NLY
COMPONENT RATHER THAN NW (DOWNSLOPE)...CLOUDS MAY BE SLOWER TO ERODE
THAN USUAL. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF INSOLATION.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES EVIDENT
THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OFF SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRONG HEATING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AS HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
DRIFTS EAST AND NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS SFC FEATURE
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD/BAGGY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. SHOULD YIELD
DRY CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS
70-75. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT
CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO VFR AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT EASTERN SITES. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT CONTINUED MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PROGRESSIVELY GETTING WORSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR/LIFR
WITH LOW CEILINGS THE PRIMARY CULPRIT WITH MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE LARGEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECTING GUSTS OF
AT LEAST 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME GUSTS TO 30-35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT AS HIGH. PERIODS OF
RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TRIAD TAF SITES THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR LARGER
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE CONDITIONS TRY TO RETURN TO VFR BY SOME TIME ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
...ANY MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MINOR...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS WEEKEND FOR THE HAW AND
UPPER NEUSE RIVER BASINS FOR MINOR FLOODING WHICH REACHES OR EXCEEDS
THE FLOOD STAGE BY A FEW FEET AT MOST. SEE WATER.WEATHER.GOV FOR
DETAILS AT INDIVIDUAL RIVER FORECAST POINTS.
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
TO PIVOT WEST...WITH MUCH LESS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON SATURDAY.
EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM <2 INCHES IN THE EAST TO 3-4 INCHES IN THE WEST. THIS
REDUCTION IN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENT WILL
GREATLY REDUCE THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING...
AS WHILE THE TOPSOIL (SEE 0-10CM & 0-200CM RELATIVE SOIL MOISTURE
FROM NASA HTTP://WEATHER.MSFC.NASA.GOV/SPORT) IS APPROACHING
SATURATION...THE DEEPER SOIL COLUMN HAS NOT RECOVERED...CONTAINING
<50% OF THE MOISTURE REQUIRED FOR SATURATION. AS SUCH...THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF STORAGE AVAILABLE IN THE DEEPER SOILS WHICH WILL
REDUCE RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY IF THE RAINFALL RATE IS NOT HIGH.
THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING...FOR AS NOTED
ABOVE...THE UPPER SOIL IS NEAR SATURATION SO HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD
PRODUCE VERY SWIFT RUNOFF INTO SMALL STREAMS OR LOW-LYING
AREAS...AND PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
COULD ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER TROF AND BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME...AND WE WILL NEED TO ASSESS OUR HYDROLOGIC STATUS
AFTER THIS FIRST ROUND OF RAINFALL...STAY TUNED.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...ELLIS
HYDROLOGY...MLM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
147 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY AND FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
FORECAST OF RAIN FOR EVERYONE (HEAVIER EAST AND LIGHTER WEST
INITIALLY... SHIFTING TO HEAVIER WEST LATER TODAY) AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE NE STILL LOOK GOOD... BUT SHORT TERM TRENDS REGARDING
AREAS OF PRIME HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE BEING MONITORED. HEAVIEST RAIN
IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA... WITH ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE WRN AND SW PIEDMONT ATTM. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
ABOUT THE EVENTUAL FATE OF HEAVY RAIN STREAMING JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA... OVER COASTAL NC AND ADJACENT AREAS JUST INLAND...
WHICH WE`VE BEEN EXPECTING TO PIVOT WESTWARD AND TRACK THROUGH
CENTRAL NC TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MESO LOW NOW TRACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN HAS IN ITS WAKE SOME WEAK RELATIVE
SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN RAINFALL INTENSITY TO ITS SOUTH
IN RECENT HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR HINTS AT THIS BUT ALSO SHOWS
RAINFALL FILLING BACK IN TO OUR SOUTH BETWEEN MYR AND CHS HEADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... SO FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE
RELATIVE LULL WILL BE TEMPORARY... AS THE INTENSE UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND HIGH WATER CONTENT WITH DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PROMPT
CONTINUED RAIN DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR TAKES THIS STREAM OF WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TOWARD THE WNW AND THROUGH CENTRAL NC BETWEEN
1 PM AND 8 PM... WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH OUR PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
REGARDING THE TIME OF GREATEST HEAVY RAIN RISK. WIND ADVISORY IS
LEFT AS IS... WITH THE WET SOIL AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING ROOT
STRUCTURES ALREADY CAUSING THE DOWNING OF NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IN THE LAST 12 HRS. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE WELL BELOW
TYPICAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA... HOWEVER FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30-40
MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 AM:
OVERVIEW: AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STALL IN VICINITY OF THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT...AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN
TRACKS SLOWLY NW/N THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST (FROM THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL LOW) INTO THE CAROLINAS...MID-LEVEL (700-500 MB) WARM
ADVECTION...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEP /TROPICAL/ MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5" (WEST) TO 2.2" (EAST)
ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN OBSERVED OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING.
TODAY/TONIGHT: EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TODAY AS 925-850 MB FLOW BACKS/STRENGTHENS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST (IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING SSE TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE)...RESULTING IN STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION /ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION/ ATOP A
PRONOUNCED CAD WEDGE AS H85 DEWPOINTS RISE TO 16-18C AND PWAT VALUES
INCREASE TO 2.00-2.25". THE HIGHEST PRECIP RATES WILL BE FOUND IN
POCKETS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER WARM
CONVEYER-BELT PRECIPITATION ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
FLOODING: 2-4" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 12Z SAT. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
WILL FALL WEST OF HWY 1 OVER THE MORE VARIED TOPOGRAPHY OF THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST.
WIND: MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 25-35 KT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN A
SHALLOW (2000 FT AGL) MIXED LAYER ATTENDANT STEEP SFC-900 MB LAPSE
RATES ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION AT THE BASE OF THE CAD WEDGE.
OCCASIONAL NORTHEAST GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFT/EVE WHEN INTENSE PRECIP
LOADING ASSOC/W ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY ALLOW DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT OF STRONGER FLOW /35-45 KT/ ATTENDANT A LOW-LEVEL SPEED
MAX PROGGED NEAR THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT ~900 MB. GIVEN
SATURATED SOIL AND HEAVY RAIN...DOWNED TREES AND SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. INDEED...REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED IN THE TRIAD AREA AND PORTIONS OF
THE TRIANGLE. WITH THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES BECOMING
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS THIS AFT/EVE...
DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THE
ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...
THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SHIFT WEST/SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC
ON SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS IN VICINITY OF NORTHERN FL /
SOUTHERN GA...WITH LIGHT RAIN GIVING WAY TO OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES/
DRIZZLE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...AND PERHAPS ISOLD CONVECTION
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS A PERSISTENT (AND STRENGTHENING)
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS A TROPICAL ATLANTIC AIRMASS
INLAND...ERODING THE CAD WEDGE FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE DAY. AS
IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH REGARD
TO THE EVOLUTION OF CAD EROSION ON SAT...AND THUS TEMPERATURES...
CLOUD COVER...AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALSO REMAIN UNCERTAIN. WILL MAKE RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM FRIDAY...
THE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL LIKELY
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AS THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
INDICATE INTENSE BANDING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN A WEST TO EAST AXIS
ACROSS NE GEORGIA... SC... AND FAR SOUTHERN NC SUNDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WOBBLE SLOWLY SE ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. EVEN IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN/QPF FALL ACROSS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY... THE LATEST EUROPEAN WITH OTHER MODEL SUPPORT... FORECAST
THE UPPER LOW TO BEGIN TO MOVE NE ALONG THE SC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THIS WOULD SPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION (WITH A CONTINUED FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY). AT THIS POINT...
WE WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER SUNDAY... EXPECT A LOW OVERCAST AND PERIODS OF RAIN
ALL ZONES... WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT... SOUTHERN PIEDMONT... SANDHILLS... AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. QPF OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE FORECAST SOUTH... WITH LOCALLY 4
INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER REGION. QPF TO THE NORTH
SHOULD BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.50. IN ADDITION WE WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG NE FETCH WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS 20-30 MPH. HIGHS
SUNDAY GENERALLY MID 60S TO MID 70S NW TO SE.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY SPREAD BACK INLAND OVER NC SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. IF SO... THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO
MONDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POP AND INCREASE QPF TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL. LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS 65-72 MONDAY.
THEN FINALLY BY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY... TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE
THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES EJECT THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE NHC TRACK OF JOAQUIN WELL OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC SUPPORT CLEARING AND MILDER WEATHER BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT
CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO VFR AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT EASTERN SITES. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT CONTINUED MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PROGRESSIVELY GETTING WORSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR/LIFR
WITH LOW CEILINGS THE PRIMARY CULPRIT WITH MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE LARGEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECTING GUSTS OF
AT LEAST 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME GUSTS TO 30-35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT AS HIGH. PERIODS OF
RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TRIAD TAF SITES THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR LARGER
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE CONDITIONS TRY TO RETURN TO VFR BY SOME TIME ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 250 AM FRIDAY...
THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY MONDAY (PER LATEST FAVORED EUROPEAN SOLUTION).
THE HIGHEST RISK OF FLOODING APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
TODAY... THEN SHIFT TO OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TWO DAY QPF OF 2-4 INCHES EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST... WITH
4-6 INCHES WEST AND SOUTH. THEN SUNDAY... THE HIGHEST FLASH FLOOD
THREAT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE ADDITIONAL 2-3
INCHES MAY FALL.
THEN THE LATEST EUROPEAN BRINGS HEAVY RAIN BACK TO THE ENTIRE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY QPF. NEEDLESS TO
SAY... A LONG DURATION FLASH FLOOD THREAT POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...ELLIS
HYDROLOGY...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1039 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONT OFF THE
COAST WILL MOVE INLAND LATE TODAY. MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN...
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL HELP TO
WRAP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND WILL BRING FLOODING
RAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...THE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS ONGOING
FOR THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR COUNTIES WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY EXCEEDING 6 INCHES IN SPOTS. A REPORT OF 5.32 INCHES WAS RECEIVED
EARLIER THIS MORNING FROM CALABASH IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY. A STREAMER
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS EXTENDS SOUTH OF
JACKSONVILLE NC AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
SHIFTING GRADUALLY WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH FLOOD POTENTIAL
EXISTS WITH THIS BAND OF PRECIP SINCE THE GROUND IS NOW SATURATED
AND VIRTUALLY ALL ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS BEING TURNED STRAIGHT INTO
RUNOFF. A BROAD SATELLITE VIEW SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT
PART OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN...THE MOISTURE PLUME IS CONNECTED TO THE
STORM AND IS BEING FUNNELED NORTHWARD BY MID-LEVEL WINDS AND THE
SLOW-MOVING FRONT OFFSHORE.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA IS MUCH SPOTTIER.
RAIN IS ENTIRELY ABSENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR PEE DEE REGION DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WHAT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN A WEAK GRAVITY WAVE ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD EARLIER...PLUS MODEL
INDICATIONS OF A LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
MORNING...BUT LIFT THROUGH NON-SATURATED AIR CANNOT PRODUCE
PRECIP.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY LOOK FOR THE BAND OF SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
TO SHIFT WESTWARD...REACHING THE NOW-DRY REGIONS OF THE SC PEE DEE
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FROM NOW THROUGH SUNSET
EXPECT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR
AREA...WITH TOTALS POSSIBLY REACHING HALF AN INCH ACROSS PARTS OF
THE PEE DEE REGION. AS THE FRONT REACHES THE BEACHES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON LOW-LEVEL HELICITY AND INCREASING SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. TONIGHT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAIN SHOULD SHIFT INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AS BACKING MID- LEVEL WINDS
SHIFT THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME INLAND FROM THE COAST. IN FACT IT`S
AMAZING HOW MUCH DRY AIR GETS INTO THE COLUMN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE CAPE FEAR AREA.
FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO HIGH TEMP FORECASTS TODAY...STILL
ANTICIPATED TO REACH 70-74 AT THE BEACHES LATE IN THE DAY. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL HARDLY BUDGE AS DENSE CLOUDS AND EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING KEEP READINGS STUCK IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING.
STRONG ON SHORE PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY AS JOAQUIN MAKES PROGRESS
NORTH WELL OFF SHORE AND UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS THE FLA/GA GULF
COAST AREA. THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
TIGHTENS UP WITH BEST ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THROUGH GA/SC. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH ON SHORE AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-NW TO E-SE
WITH MAX LIFT AND CONVERGENCE RUNNING UP THROUGH GA/SC BORDER
FROM LOW OFF SHORE BY SAT EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH ON SHORE BEHIND THIS FRONT SPREADING OVER NC INTO NE SC FROM
THE E-NE. THE AXIS OF THE GREATEST PCP WATER OVER 2 INCHES WILL
SHIFT FROM MORE N-S TO NW-SE THROUGH SAT WITH PCP WATER VALUES
DROPPING DOWN TO 1.5 INCHES OVER CAPE FEAR COAST IN STRONG
EASTERLY PUSH. THEREFORE EXPECT A LULL IN THE HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTING SOUTH...BUT THIS WILL BE THE
TIME WHEN MAX ON SHORE WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS UP AND PRODUCE WORST
COASTAL EFFECTS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PERIOD OF
HIGH TIDES EARLY AFTN SAT.
JOAQUIN SHOULD PASS OVER 400 MILES TO THE EAST OF COASTAL
CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS AN EASTWARD TREND HAS
BEEN SEEN WITH NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST OF THIS MAJOR HURRICANE.
ONCE IT MOVES FARTHER NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
E-NE WITH A STRONG MOISTURE CONNECTION TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
BE WRAPPING AROUND MOVING SLOWLY EAST OFF THE FLA/GA COAST. THIS
WILL PULL THE AXIS OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH AND
WILL PUT THE HEAVIEST PCP POTENTIAL BACK OVER LOCAL FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. PCP AMOUNTS THRU
THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY RUN 3 TO 7 INCHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LINGERING PCP WILL TAPER OFF AS AS UPPER
LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE MON. DRY AIR WILL
FLOW INTO THE AREA IN N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK END. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. SUNSHINE WILL BE BACK FINALLY BY TUES WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE FALL LIKE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MOISTURE STILL STREAMING ONSHORE. THE HRRR KEEPS ILM IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOST OF THE MORNING. THINK THIS IS A GOOD BET
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR. CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY IFR IN
THIS AREA...WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR. THE MYRTLES ARE ONLY SEEING LIGHT
RAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD FILL IN THERE IN A COUPLE
OF HOURS. THE WINDS OVERNIGHT WERE A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST...AND
HAVE KEPT THEM UP TODAY. LOOK FOR FAIRLY STEADY RAIN AT LBT WITH
PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE EAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...WITH MVFR/TEMPO
IFR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW-NE MONDAY WITH
VFR TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
OUTER BANKS TO ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR AND CAPE
ROMAIN SHOULD PUSH WESTWARD TODAY. WHILE THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL
MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALL DAY FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA
BEACHES...WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE EAST NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE BULK OF
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z CANADIAN WERE
NOT USED DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE FRONTAL POSITION.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ACTUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS...SETTLING IN THE 15 KNOT RANGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAIN TIGHTENS.
A STREAMER OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF CAPE FEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...
BRINGING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS INTO PLAY. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCED WIND SHEAR AND GREATER
INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS. ANY MARINERS BRAVING THE CONDITIONS
TODAY WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE WEATHER.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE CONDITIONS.
THE SETUP OF THE ESE GROUND SWELL FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS
WILL NOW GET SUPPLEMENTED WITH JOAQUIN GENERATED SWELL THROUGHOUT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...LOOKING AT THE ADDITION OF
SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES ON TOP OF THESE SWELLS...WITH NE-E
WINDS BASICALLY RUNNING 15 TO 30 KT THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT. THE HIGHER RANGE OF THESE SUSTAINED AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...DURING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS IS AT THE TIME WHEN THE
GRADIENT FLOW WILL BECOME FURTHER TIGHTENED AS JOAQUIN MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ILM COASTAL WATERS...SOME 400 MILES EAST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE OFF SHORE WATERS. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG E-NE WINDS. OVERALL...LOOKING AT
SIGNIFICANT SEAS BUILDING TO THE 7 TO 13 FOOT LEVELS BY SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LATEST FORECAST SHOWS UP TO 13 TO 14 FT SEAS IN THE
OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAKES
ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL START OUT 8 TO 14 FT AS
STRONG AND LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS IMPACT THE WATERS OFF OF CAPE
FEAR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
THE NORTH MONDAY INTO TUES AS JOAQUIN AND UPPER LOW LIFT FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL
STILL REQUIRE ADVISORIES OVER THE WATERS INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN TIDE VALUES ALONG THE
SHORELINE OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
EXCEEDING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS...NECESSITATING ISSUANCE
OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THRESHOLDS WILL ALSO BE MET ALONG THE
WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCZ054-056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...III
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY AND FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
FORECAST OF RAIN FOR EVERYONE (HEAVIER EAST AND LIGHTER WEST
INITIALLY... SHIFTING TO HEAVIER WEST LATER TODAY) AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE NE STILL LOOK GOOD... BUT SHORT TERM TRENDS REGARDING
AREAS OF PRIME HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE BEING MONITORED. HEAVIEST RAIN
IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA... WITH ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE WRN AND SW PIEDMONT ATTM. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
ABOUT THE EVENTUAL FATE OF HEAVY RAIN STREAMING JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA... OVER COASTAL NC AND ADJACENT AREAS JUST INLAND...
WHICH WE`VE BEEN EXPECTING TO PIVOT WESTWARD AND TRACK THROUGH
CENTRAL NC TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MESO LOW NOW TRACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN HAS IN ITS WAKE SOME WEAK RELATIVE
SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN RAINFALL INTENSITY TO ITS SOUTH
IN RECENT HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR HINTS AT THIS BUT ALSO SHOWS
RAINFALL FILLING BACK IN TO OUR SOUTH BETWEEN MYR AND CHS HEADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... SO FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE
RELATIVE LULL WILL BE TEMPORARY... AS THE INTENSE UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND HIGH WATER CONTENT WITH DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PROMPT
CONTINUED RAIN DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR TAKES THIS STREAM OF WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TOWARD THE WNW AND THROUGH CENTRAL NC BETWEEN
1 PM AND 8 PM... WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH OUR PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
REGARDING THE TIME OF GREATEST HEAVY RAIN RISK. WIND ADVISORY IS
LEFT AS IS... WITH THE WET SOIL AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING ROOT
STRUCTURES ALREADY CAUSING THE DOWNING OF NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IN THE LAST 12 HRS. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE WELL BELOW
TYPICAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA... HOWEVER FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30-40
MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 AM:
OVERVIEW: AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STALL IN VICINITY OF THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT...AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN
TRACKS SLOWLY NW/N THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST (FROM THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL LOW) INTO THE CAROLINAS...MID-LEVEL (700-500 MB) WARM
ADVECTION...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEP /TROPICAL/ MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5" (WEST) TO 2.2" (EAST)
ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN OBSERVED OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING.
TODAY/TONIGHT: EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TODAY AS 925-850 MB FLOW BACKS/STRENGTHENS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST (IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING SSE TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE)...RESULTING IN STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION /ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION/ ATOP A
PRONOUNCED CAD WEDGE AS H85 DEWPOINTS RISE TO 16-18C AND PWAT VALUES
INCREASE TO 2.00-2.25". THE HIGHEST PRECIP RATES WILL BE FOUND IN
POCKETS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER WARM
CONVEYER-BELT PRECIPITATION ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
FLOODING: 2-4" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 12Z SAT. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
WILL FALL WEST OF HWY 1 OVER THE MORE VARIED TOPOGRAPHY OF THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST.
WIND: MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 25-35 KT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN A
SHALLOW (2000 FT AGL) MIXED LAYER ATTENDANT STEEP SFC-900 MB LAPSE
RATES ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION AT THE BASE OF THE CAD WEDGE.
OCCASIONAL NORTHEAST GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFT/EVE WHEN INTENSE PRECIP
LOADING ASSOC/W ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY ALLOW DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT OF STRONGER FLOW /35-45 KT/ ATTENDANT A LOW-LEVEL SPEED
MAX PROGGED NEAR THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT ~900 MB. GIVEN
SATURATED SOIL AND HEAVY RAIN...DOWNED TREES AND SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. INDEED...REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED IN THE TRIAD AREA AND PORTIONS OF
THE TRIANGLE. WITH THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES BECOMING
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS THIS AFT/EVE...
DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THE
ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...
THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SHIFT WEST/SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC
ON SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS IN VICINITY OF NORTHERN FL /
SOUTHERN GA...WITH LIGHT RAIN GIVING WAY TO OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES/
DRIZZLE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...AND PERHAPS ISOLD CONVECTION
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS A PERSISTENT (AND STRENGTHENING)
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS A TROPICAL ATLANTIC AIRMASS
INLAND...ERODING THE CAD WEDGE FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE DAY. AS
IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH REGARD
TO THE EVOLUTION OF CAD EROSION ON SAT...AND THUS TEMPERATURES...
CLOUD COVER...AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALSO REMAIN UNCERTAIN. WILL MAKE RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM FRIDAY...
THE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL LIKELY
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AS THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
INDICATE INTENSE BANDING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN A WEST TO EAST AXIS
ACROSS NE GEORGIA... SC... AND FAR SOUTHERN NC SUNDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WOBBLE SLOWLY SE ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. EVEN IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN/QPF FALL ACROSS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY... THE LATEST EUROPEAN WITH OTHER MODEL SUPPORT... FORECAST
THE UPPER LOW TO BEGIN TO MOVE NE ALONG THE SC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THIS WOULD SPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION (WITH A CONTINUED FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY). AT THIS POINT...
WE WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER SUNDAY... EXPECT A LOW OVERCAST AND PERIODS OF RAIN
ALL ZONES... WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT... SOUTHERN PIEDMONT... SANDHILLS... AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. QPF OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE FORECAST SOUTH... WITH LOCALLY 4
INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER REGION. QPF TO THE NORTH
SHOULD BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.50. IN ADDITION WE WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG NE FETCH WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS 20-30 MPH. HIGHS
SUNDAY GENERALLY MID 60S TO MID 70S NW TO SE.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY SPREAD BACK INLAND OVER NC SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. IF SO... THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO
MONDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POP AND INCREASE QPF TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL. LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS 65-72 MONDAY.
THEN FINALLY BY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY... TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE
THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES EJECT THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE NHC TRACK OF JOAQUIN WELL OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC SUPPORT CLEARING AND MILDER WEATHER BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
TROPICAL MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE OF COOL STABLE AIR IN PLACE OVER
CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...WHICH WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. SUSTAINED NELY WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30KT RANGE.
LONG TERM: UPPER LOW WILL CUT-OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL LIKELY SHIFT
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CEILINGS WITH
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 250 AM FRIDAY...
THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY MONDAY (PER LATEST FAVORED EUROPEAN SOLUTION).
THE HIGHEST RISK OF FLOODING APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
TODAY... THEN SHIFT TO OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TWO DAY QPF OF 2-4 INCHES EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST... WITH
4-6 INCHES WEST AND SOUTH. THEN SUNDAY... THE HIGHEST FLASH FLOOD
THREAT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE ADDITIONAL 2-3
INCHES MAY FALL.
THEN THE LATEST EUROPEAN BRINGS HEAVY RAIN BACK TO THE ENTIRE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY QPF. NEEDLESS TO
SAY... A LONG DURATION FLASH FLOOD THREAT POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL
HYDROLOGY...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
737 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED OFF THE COAST. MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN...CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS IT PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS. NONETHELESS...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL HELP
TO WRAP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MAY BRING
FLOODING RAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM UP FROM
THE SOUTH BUT RAINFALL OVER SOUTH CAROLINA HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED.
THIS APPEARS TO BE DOWN TO A DECREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN
THESE AREAS. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE ISENTROPIC LIFT RETURNING TO
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
STALLED OFFSHORE TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. INITIALLY PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOW AND THE FRONT MAY NOT MOVE VERY FAR INLAND FROM THE COAST
UNTIL LATE EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WET DAY BUT IT MAY END UP DOING SO IN TWO PHASES.
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES WILL
BE MORE FAVORED BUT THEN AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL SHIFT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING.
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PLUME OF DEEP GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. ALSO PRESENT IS A STALLED COLD FRONT...JUST OFF THE
COAST. THE FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAVE
TAPPED INTO THE STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS BUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THINGS GET INTERESTING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS 2 AREAS OF DRY AIR THAT MAY WORK TO CUTOFF OR AT LEAST
SEVERELY IMPEDE THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE.
ONE BATCH OF DRY AIR IS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE DIGGING
UPPER LOW NEAR THE AL/MS BORDER AND THE OTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE EDGE OF JOAQUIN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE TROPICAL CONNECTION BECOMING CONSTRICTED BUT NOT
COMPLETELY SEVERED. THEN LATER TODAY...AS THE 5H TROUGH/LOW DIGS AND
STARTS TO GAIN SOME NEGATIVE TILT...JOAQUIN IS LIFTED NORTH AND THE
NARROW BAND OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO SOUTHERN SC AND GA...AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE. THIS IS WHEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC.
PWATS DROP FROM AROUND 2.3 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON TO CLOSE TO 1.2
INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A MEASURE OF
MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SC WITH PWATS DROPPING
FROM AROUND 2.3 INCHES LATER TODAY TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES AS THE
PERIOD ENDS. WEAKENING ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH DECREASING DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE IS LIKELY TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH WARRANT
CONTINUATION OF POP IN THE LIKELY AND ABOVE RANGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BELOW CLIMO BUT HELP KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL
BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING.
STRONG ON SHORE PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY AS JOAQUIN MAKES PROGRESS
NORTH WELL OFF SHORE AND UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS THE FLA/GA GULF
COAST AREA. THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
TIGHTENS UP WITH BEST ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THROUGH GA/SC. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH ON SHORE AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-NW TO E-SE
WITH MAX LIFT AND CONVERGENCE RUNNING UP THROUGH GA/SC BORDER
FROM LOW OFF SHORE BY SAT EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH ON SHORE BEHIND THIS FRONT SPREADING OVER NC INTO NE SC FROM
THE E-NE. THE AXIS OF THE GREATEST PCP WATER OVER 2 INCHES WILL
SHIFT FROM MORE N-S TO NW-SE THROUGH SAT WITH PCP WATER VALUES
DROPPING DOWN TO 1.5 INCHES OVER CAPE FEAR COAST IN STRONG
EASTERLY PUSH. THEREFORE EXPECT A LULL IN THE HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTING SOUTH...BUT THIS WILL BE THE
TIME WHEN MAX ON SHORE WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS UP AND PRODUCE WORST
COASTAL EFFECTS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PERIOD OF
HIGH TIDES EARLY AFTN SAT.
JOAQUIN SHOULD PASS OVER 400 MILES TO THE EAST OF COASTAL
CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS AN EASTWARD TREND HAS
BEEN SEEN WITH NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST OF THIS MAJOR HURRICANE.
ONCE IT MOVES FARTHER NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
E-NE WITH A STRONG MOISTURE CONNECTION TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
BE WRAPPING AROUND MOVING SLOWLY EAST OFF THE FLA/GA COAST. THIS
WILL PULL THE AXIS OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH AND
WILL PUT THE HEAVIEST PCP POTENTIAL BACK OVER LOCAL FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. PCP AMOUNTS THRU
THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY RUN 3 TO 7 INCHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LINGERING PCP WILL TAPER OFF AS AS UPPER
LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE MON. DRY AIR WILL
FLOW INTO THE AREA IN N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK END. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. SUNSHINE WILL BE BACK FINALLY BY TUES WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE FALL LIKE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MOISTURE STILL STREAMING ONSHORE. THE HRRR KEEPS ILM IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOST OF THE MORNING. THINK THIS IS A GOOD BET
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR. CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY IFR IN
THIS AREA...WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR. THE MYRTLES ARE ONLY SEEING LIGHT
RAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD FILL IN THERE IN A COUPLE
OF HOURS. THE WINDS OVERNIGHT WERE A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST...AND
HAVE KEPT THEM UP TODAY. LOOK FOR FAIRLY STEADY RAIN AT LBT WITH
PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE EAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...WITH MVFR/TEMPO
IFR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW-NE MONDAY WITH
VFR TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR
MARINE AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED EAST OF THE WATERS IS
CURRENTLY MAINTAINING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY TODAY...VEERING WINDS FROM
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WILL
BRIEFLY RELAX TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 25 KT SUSTAINED BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS ALREADY RUNNING 5 TO 7 FT
WILL EXCEED 10 FT IN SOME AREAS LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE CONDITIONS.
THE SETUP OF THE ESE GROUND SWELL FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS
WILL NOW GET SUPPLEMENTED WITH JOAQUIN GENERATED SWELL THROUGHOUT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...LOOKING AT THE ADDITION OF
SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES ON TOP OF THESE SWELLS...WITH NE-E
WINDS BASICALLY RUNNING 15 TO 30 KT THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT. THE HIGHER RANGE OF THESE SUSTAINED AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...DURING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS IS AT THE TIME WHEN THE
GRADIENT FLOW WILL BECOME FURTHER TIGHTENED AS JOAQUIN MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ILM COASTAL WATERS...SOME 400 MILES EAST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE OFF SHORE WATERS. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG E-NE WINDS. OVERALL...LOOKING AT
SIGNIFICANT SEAS BUILDING TO THE 7 TO 13 FOOT LEVELS BY SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LATEST FORECAST SHOWS UP TO 13 TO 14 FT SEAS IN THE
OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAKES
ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL START OUT 8 TO 14 FT AS
STRONG AND LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS IMPACT THE WATERS OFF OF CAPE
FEAR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
THE NORTH MONDAY INTO TUES AS JOAQUIN AND UPPER LOW LIFT FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL
STILL REQUIRE ADVISORIES OVER THE WATERS INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN TIDE VALUES ALONG THE
SHORELINE OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
EXCEEDING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS...NECESSITATING ISSUANCE
OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THRESHOLDS WILL ALSO BE MET ALONG THE
WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCZ054-056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...III
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
620 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED OFF THE COAST. MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN...CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS IT PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS. NONETHELESS...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL HELP
TO WRAP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MAY BRING
FLOODING RAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PLUME OF DEEP GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. ALSO PRESENT IS A STALLED COLD FRONT...JUST OFF THE COAST.
THE FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAVE TAPPED INTO
THE STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS BUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING THINGS GET INTERESTING. WATER VAPOR SHOWS 2 AREAS
OF DRY AIR THAT MAY WORK TO CUTOFF OR AT LEAST SEVERELY IMPEDE THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE.
ONE BATCH OF DRY AIR IS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE DIGGING
UPPER LOW NEAR THE AL/MS BORDER AND THE OTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE EDGE OF JOAQUIN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE TROPICAL CONNECTION BECOMING CONSTRICTED BUT NOT
COMPLETELY SEVERED. THEN LATER TODAY...AS THE 5H TROUGH/LOW DIGS AND
STARTS TO GAIN SOME NEGATIVE TILT...JOAQUIN IS LIFTED NORTH AND THE
NARROW BAND OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO SOUTHERN SC AND GA...AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE. THIS IS WHEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC.
PWATS DROP FROM AROUND 2.3 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON TO CLOSE TO 1.2
INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A MEASURE OF
MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SC WITH PWATS DROPPING
FROM AROUND 2.3 INCHES LATER TODAY TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES AS THE
PERIOD ENDS. WEAKENING ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH DECREASING DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE IS LIKELY TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH WARRANT
CONTINUATION OF POP IN THE LIKELY AND ABOVE RANGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BELOW CLIMO BUT HELP KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL
BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING.
STRONG ON SHORE PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY AS JOAQUIN MAKES PROGRESS
NORTH WELL OFF SHORE AND UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS THE FLA/GA GULF
COAST AREA. THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
TIGHTENS UP WITH BEST ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THROUGH GA/SC. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH ON SHORE AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-NW TO E-SE
WITH MAX LIFT AND CONVERGENCE RUNNING UP THROUGH GA/SC BORDER
FROM LOW OFF SHORE BY SAT EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH ON SHORE BEHIND THIS FRONT SPREADING OVER NC INTO NE SC FROM
THE E-NE. THE AXIS OF THE GREATEST PCP WATER OVER 2 INCHES WILL
SHIFT FROM MORE N-S TO NW-SE THROUGH SAT WITH PCP WATER VALUES
DROPPING DOWN TO 1.5 INCHES OVER CAPE FEAR COAST IN STRONG
EASTERLY PUSH. THEREFORE EXPECT A LULL IN THE HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTING SOUTH...BUT THIS WILL BE THE
TIME WHEN MAX ON SHORE WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS UP AND PRODUCE WORST
COASTAL EFFECTS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PERIOD OF
HIGH TIDES EARLY AFTN SAT.
JOAQUIN SHOULD PASS OVER 400 MILES TO THE EAST OF COASTAL
CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS AN EASTWARD TREND HAS
BEEN SEEN WITH NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST OF THIS MAJOR HURRICANE.
ONCE IT MOVES FARTHER NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
E-NE WITH A STRONG MOISTURE CONNECTION TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
BE WRAPPING AROUND MOVING SLOWLY EAST OFF THE FLA/GA COAST. THIS
WILL PULL THE AXIS OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH AND
WILL PUT THE HEAVIEST PCP POTENTIAL BACK OVER LOCAL FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. PCP AMOUNTS THRU
THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY RUN 3 TO 7 INCHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LINGERING PCP WILL TAPER OFF AS AS UPPER
LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE MON. DRY AIR WILL
FLOW INTO THE AREA IN N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK END. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. SUNSHINE WILL BE BACK FINALLY BY TUES WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE FALL LIKE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MOISTURE STILL STREAMING ONSHORE. THE HRRR KEEPS ILM IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOST OF THE MORNING. THINK THIS IS A GOOD BET
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR. CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY IFR IN
THIS AREA...WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR. THE MYRTLES ARE ONLY SEEING LIGHT
RAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD FILL IN THERE IN A COUPLE
OF HOURS. THE WINDS OVERNIGHT WERE A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST...AND
HAVE KEPT THEM UP TODAY. LOOK FOR FAIRLY STEADY RAIN AT LBT WITH
PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE EAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...WITH MVFR/TEMPO
IFR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW-NE MONDAY WITH
VFR TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED EAST OF THE WATERS IS
CURRENTLY MAINTAINING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY TODAY...VEERING WINDS FROM
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WILL
BRIEFLY RELAX TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 25 KT SUSTAINED BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS ALREADY RUNNING 5 TO 7 FT
WILL EXCEED 10 FT IN SOME AREAS LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE CONDITIONS.
THE SETUP OF THE ESE GROUND SWELL FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS
WILL NOW GET SUPPLEMENTED WITH JOAQUIN GENERATED SWELL THROUGHOUT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...LOOKING AT THE ADDITION OF
SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES ON TOP OF THESE SWELLS...WITH NE-E
WINDS BASICALLY RUNNING 15 TO 30 KT THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT. THE HIGHER RANGE OF THESE SUSTAINED AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...DURING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS IS AT THE TIME WHEN THE
GRADIENT FLOW WILL BECOME FURTHER TIGHTENED AS JOAQUIN MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ILM COASTAL WATERS...SOME 400 MILES EAST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE OFF SHORE WATERS. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG E-NE WINDS. OVERALL...LOOKING AT
SIGNIFICANT SEAS BUILDING TO THE 7 TO 13 FOOT LEVELS BY SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LATEST FORECAST SHOWS UP TO 13 TO 14 FT SEAS IN THE
OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAKES
ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL START OUT 8 TO 14 FT AS
STRONG AND LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS IMPACT THE WATERS OFF OF CAPE
FEAR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
THE NORTH MONDAY INTO TUES AS JOAQUIN AND UPPER LOW LIFT FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL
STILL REQUIRE ADVISORIES OVER THE WATERS INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN TIDE VALUES ALONG THE
SHORELINE OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
EXCEEDING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS...NECESSITATING ISSUANCE
OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THRESHOLDS WILL ALSO BE MET ALONG THE
WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ054-056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...III
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1239 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
COMPLEX PRECIPITATION SYSTEM REQUIRED TO MAKE SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS
THIS AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS CENTRAL THROUGH THE NORTHWEST WHERE
BAND OF INITIAL RAIN/SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. TRIED TO SMOOTHLY BLEND THESE TWO PRECIP AREAS. WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS SOUTHWEST AT 1 PM CDT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
LIGHTNING DATA NETWORK SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA
WITH THE APPROACHING LINE. WILL ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER 17Z. UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
A VORT LOBE IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. A STRONGER LOBE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UTILIZED LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS WITH A COMBINATION OF
TIME LAGGED HRRR AND PREVIOUS FORECAST TO UPDATE POPS THROUGH
TODAY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
ALSO NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
TODAY...STRONGEST SOUTHWEST...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAINLY WEST.
CURRENTLY...LEAD S/WV IMPULSE COUPLED WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE PAST
DAYBREAK.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION OF EASTERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH REMAINS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE
WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT AND BE
CONFINED MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND BEST OVERALL FORCING ACROSS THE
WEST. THE BULK OF QPF IS DEPICTED TO REMAIN OVER WYOMING AND
MONTANA NEAR THE SFC LOW/TROUGH.
CLOUD COVER AND A COOLING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL SEE HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON HOVERING BETWEEN 55 AND 65F DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEST AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS INTO EASTERN
MONTANA ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THE STRONG HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE MUCH DRIER...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP OFF
QUICKLY AS YOU GET EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE ONTARIO HIGH AND NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
WINDY AS FRIDAY AND WIND HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON SUNDAY...AND ONE
LAST SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THUS BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. INTO THE PLAINS STATES AROUND MID-WEEK. CURRENTLY THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE
SUPERBLEND CURRENTLY MANIFESTS THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WE WARM
SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PULL MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WEST AND
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR KDIK-KISN-MOT LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR KBIS-KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
854 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
LIGHTNING DATA NETWORK SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA
WITH THE APPROACHING LINE. WILL ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER 17Z. UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
A VORT LOBE IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. A STRONGER LOBE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UTILIZED LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS WITH A COMBINATION OF
TIME LAGGED HRRR AND PREVIOUS FORECAST TO UPDATE POPS THROUGH
TODAY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
ALSO NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
TODAY...STRONGEST SOUTHWEST...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAINLY WEST.
CURRENTLY...LEAD S/WV IMPULSE COUPLED WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE PAST
DAYBREAK.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION OF EASTERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH REMAINS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE
WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT AND BE
CONFINED MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND BEST OVERALL FORCING ACROSS THE
WEST. THE BULK OF QPF IS DEPICTED TO REMAIN OVER WYOMING AND
MONTANA NEAR THE SFC LOW/TROUGH.
CLOUD COVER AND A COOLING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL SEE HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON HOVERING BETWEEN 55 AND 65F DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEST AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS INTO EASTERN
MONTANA ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THE STRONG HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE MUCH DRIER...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP OFF
QUICKLY AS YOU GET EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE ONTARIO HIGH AND NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
WINDY AS FRIDAY AND WIND HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON SUNDAY...AND ONE
LAST SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THUS BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. INTO THE PLAINS STATES AROUND MID-WEEK. CURRENTLY THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE
SUPERBLEND CURRENTLY MANIFESTS THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WE WARM
SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
SHOWERS...BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
MENTION IN ANY ONE TAF. SCT CLOUDS EAST WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS
WEST ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD BASES LOOK TO
REMAIN AROUND 4-5K FT AGL WEST. STRONG SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED AREA WIDE ON FRIDAY. GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KBIS/KJMS/KMOT/KISN...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE AT KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
649 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
A VORT LOBE IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. A STRONGER LOBE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UTILIZED LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS WITH A COMBINATION OF
TIME LAGGED HRRR AND PREVIOUS FORECAST TO UPDATE POPS THROUGH
TODAY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
ALSO NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
TODAY...STRONGEST SOUTHWEST...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAINLY WEST.
CURRENTLY...LEAD S/WV IMPULSE COUPLED WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE PAST
DAYBREAK.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION OF EASTERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH REMAINS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE
WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT AND BE
CONFINED MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND BEST OVERALL FORCING ACROSS THE
WEST. THE BULK OF QPF IS DEPICTED TO REMAIN OVER WYOMING AND
MONTANA NEAR THE SFC LOW/TROUGH.
CLOUD COVER AND A COOLING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL SEE HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON HOVERING BETWEEN 55 AND 65F DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEST AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS INTO EASTERN
MONTANA ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THE STRONG HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE MUCH DRIER...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP OFF
QUICKLY AS YOU GET EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE ONTARIO HIGH AND NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
WINDY AS FRIDAY AND WIND HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON SUNDAY...AND ONE
LAST SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THUS BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. INTO THE PLAINS STATES AROUND MID-WEEK. CURRENTLY THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE
SUPERBLEND CURRENTLY MANIFESTS THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WE WARM
SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
SHOWERS...BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
MENTION IN ANY ONE TAF. SCT CLOUDS EAST WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS
WEST ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD BASES LOOK TO
REMAIN AROUND 4-5K FT AGL WEST. STRONG SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED AREA WIDE ON FRIDAY. GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KBIS/KJMS/KMOT/KISN...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE AT KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1252 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
LEAD EMBEDDED WAVES ORIGINATING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN DEEP AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
NEAR TERM MODELS PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS
BASED ON LATEST HRRR/RAP/NMM GUIDANCE.
CLOUD COVER AND A STEADY SOUTHEAST WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S SO WARMED MIN T A BIT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. LATER
TONIGHT...NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SPREADS NORTHEASTERLY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE
STRETCHED POPS INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE LAST CHANGE WAS TO WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN RELUCTANT
TO DISSIPATE WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT OVER THE AREA MORE IN LINE
WITH LATEST MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THE WIND SITUATION. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH SHOWER CHANCES ENTERING THE WEST LATE. PREVIOUS
FORECAST REFLECTED THIS RATHER WELL...AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
ADJUST NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE STORMS A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
STRONG WINDS SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES AND SHEYENNE RIVER
VALLEYS...THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE LEADING IMPULSES
EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ESTABLISHES ITSELF BETWEEN THE ONTARIO SURFACE HIGH AND DEVELOPING
WYOMING SURFACE LOW. THE 12 UTC GFS/NAM FORECAST 0.5 KM WINDS OF
40-45 KTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN TO SUPPORT SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 45 MPH.
THUS...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THEREAFTER....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST INTO MID
WEEK...SUPPORTING COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z FORECAST
PERIOD. SCT CLOUDS EAST WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS WEST ARE FORECAST
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD BASES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 4-5K FT
AGL WEST. STRONG SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AREA WIDE
ON FRIDAY. GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KBIS/KJMS/KMOT/KISN...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE AT KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
940 AM PDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OVER THE PACNW
TODAY FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW AND BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW
QUICKLY RETURN ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...CLOUD COVER IS EXPANDING THROUGH THE VALLEY THIS MORNING
AND REMAINS EXTENSIVE ALONG THE COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOTHING ON RADAR YET
THIS MORNING...STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FIRST OVER THE NORTH COAST AND THEN POSSIBLE NORTH INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. 14Z HRRR IS UNEXCITED
ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES...SHOWING NOTHING IN THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 04Z
SATURDAY...BUT NAM12 AND GFS20 CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME PRECIP. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS SOME THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND DO NOT THINK THAT THE
VALLEY WILL SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING. SKIES WILL NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY
TODAY BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY
AWAY FROM THE COAST. WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL INLAND...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE VALLEY.
BOWEN
.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. ON ITS HEELS IS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND B.C. THIS FEATURE WILL NEAR THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR ZONES LATE TODAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER WASHINGTON
AND OREGON TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AROUND 0.4 TO 0.7 INCH.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A GOOD
WETTING RAIN. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET...SO ANY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGH CASCADES. A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY
SWITCHING THE FLOW TO OFFSHORE RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...EVEN AT THE COAST. IN FACT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER 80 DEGREE DAY IN THE VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
IN THE NEAR TERM...STRATUS INCREASING ON THE COAST THIS MORNING AS
WELL AS UP THE COLUMBIA TO THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE ENTRANCE. CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN MORE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO CLEAR...AND EXPECT WE WILL HANG ONTO
STRATUS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TO
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS SHOWING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT DUE TO SLIGHT MODEL
DIFFERENCES. /64
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS WITH CIGS 2000-2500 FT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. MAY SEE SOME GRADUAL SCATTERING THIS
MORNING...PERHAPS AIDED BY SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARDS THE REGION. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR APPEARS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT....WITH RETURN
TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN INLAND THIS EVENING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS REMAIN AROUND 3000 FT THROUGH
17Z...THEN MAY BEGIN TO SCATTER WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT RAIN AFT 03Z. CULLEN
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS OVER THE INNER WATERS THIS MORNING...BUT
STARTING TO INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE OUTER WATERS...WHILE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 KT
POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT IN THE INNER WATERS...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY STRENGTH GUSTS. SEAS DOMINATED BY
A NW SWELL AND AROUND 7 TO 9 FT TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
ACHIEVING 10 FT SEAS NEAR BUOY 46089 AND INTO THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS WITH INCREASING CONTRIBUTION FROM WIND WAVES. HOWEVER...DUE
TO LOWER CONFIDENCE AND SMALL WINDOW OF CONCERN...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY ADVISORY FOR SEAS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS DECREASE EARLY SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOP DUE TO THE BUILDING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE AND
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC. THIS KEEPS WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SEAS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CULLEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
PDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
FROM 10 TO 60 NM
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
400 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO SET UP A DEEP-MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY OVER MOST OF
THE REGION.
POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE BAHAMAS...IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...AND HEAD INTO THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LIGHT-MODERATE
RAIN FROM CAMBRIA ENE TO JUST SOUTH OF WILLIAMSPORT. THE RAIN HAS
BEEN INCHING EVER SO SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING THE TREND INTO THE EVENING. I USED
THE HRRR TO BRING THE RAIN INTO CENTRAL ZONES BY EARLY
EVENING...AND COVERING ABOUT THE SERN 3/4 OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP LAYER
FLOW TAKES ON A SELY COMPONENT AS THE HUGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SERN STATES DIGS AND TAKES ON A NEG TILT. I LEANED VERY CLOSE TO
SREF POPS WHICH SHOW MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE CWA SEEING MEASURABLE
RAINOVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND MAX SURGES UP AND THRU
SOUTH- CENTRAL PA.
LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AVERAGING IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FROM NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR RAIN WILL BE DURING THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS
JUST LEFT OVER SHOWERS TO BE DEALT WITH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY BUILDS WESTWARD AND SHUNTS TO DEEPEST
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION AND OFF TO OUR WEST.
AFTER A WET MORNING...I USED A BLEND OF MOS AND SREF POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WHICH STILL MAY BE A BIT ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE.
IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID
50S FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAFL
AS PWS STEADILY DECLINE /AND REMAIN FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD/ BUT LOW CLOUDS AND POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
A DECREASING POP TREND AND DRY WEATHER A GOOD BET HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHEAST CLOSED LOW WHICH
ALLOWS THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NRN TIER
STATES. ASIDE FROM A WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT AROUND MID
WEEK...MOST OF THE MON-THU PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS
BACK TO EARLY OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS. RAIN RISK SHOULD INCREASE
BY FRIDAY 10/9 BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL BUT THE FAR SE TERMINALS REMAIN VFR AS OF 2 PM.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE FROM SE TO NW AS STEADIER RAIN
PUSHES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ERN CANADA AND
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SERN US WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK LLVL E-NERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEGINS TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...PERIODS OF RAIN/REDUCED CONDITIONS LIKELY. BREEZY OUT OF
THE EAST.
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
304 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO SET UP A DEEP-MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY OVER MOST OF
THE REGION.
POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE BAHAMAS...IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...AND HEAD INTO THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LIGHT-MODERATE
RAIN FROM CAMBRIA ENE TO JUST SOUTH OF WILLIAMSPORT. THE RAIN HAS
BEEN INCHING EVER SO SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING THE TREND INTO THE EVENING. I USED
THE HRRR TO BRING THE RAIN INTO CENTRAL ZONES BY EARLY
EVENING...AND COVERING ABOUT THE SERN 3/4 OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP LAYER
FLOW TAKES ON A SELY COMPONENT AS THE HUGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SERN STATES DIGS AND TAKES ON A NEG TILT. I LEANED VERY CLOSE TO
SREF POPS WHICH SHOW MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE CWA SEEING MEASURABLERAIN
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND MAX SURGES UP AND THRU SOUTH-
CENTRAL PA.
LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AVERAGING IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FROM NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR RAIN WILL BE DURING THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS
JUST LEFT OVER SHOWERS TO BE DEALT WITH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY BUILDS WESTWARD AND SHUNTS TO DEEPEST
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION AND OFF TO OUR WEST.
AFTER A WET MORNING...I USED A BLEND OF MOS AND SREF POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WHICH STILL MAY BE A BIT ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE.
IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID
50S FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LOOKING AT WET WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS THE LARGE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
RESULTS IN A NE TO E FLOW BECOMING MORE SE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THUS REGARDLESS OF INPUT FROM THE TROPICS...STILL LOOKING AT A
WINDY...COOL...WET PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND
MAYBE TUE AM...DEPENDING ON THE INTERACTION OF THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW WITH THE HURRICANE.
TRIMMED POPS AND QPF BY 20 PERCENT OR MORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE WWD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BAND SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB LIKELY TO BE
INTENSE...AS COLDER AIR BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NY AND
WARM...TROPICAL AIR ADVECTS TO THE NW FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL BUT THE FAR SE TERMINALS REMAIN VFR AS OF 2 PM.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE FROM SE TO NW AS STEADIER RAIN
PUSHES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ERN CANADA AND
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SERN US WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK LLVL E-NERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEGINS TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...PERIODS OF RAIN/REDUCED CONDITIONS LIKELY. BREEZY OUT OF
THE EAST.
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1014 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO SET UP A DEEP-MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND PERIODS OF RAIN...MAINLY LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
OVER MOST OF THE REGION.
POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE BAHAMAS...IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...AND HEAD INTO THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LIGHT-MODERATE
RAIN FROM SOMERSET ENE TO THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY...SPREADING
VERY SLOWLY OFF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
THE 850 MB FRONT IS DRAPED FROM SERN VA...TO THE DELMARVA
REGION...WITH A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT EXTENDING NORTH TO BEYOND
THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE 850MB FLOW OFF THE OCEAN IS STILL FROM THE
ENE AND GENERALLY PARALLEL WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO PRECIP WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME TRYING TO SPREAD NORTH AND WEST TODAY. LATEST
MDL QPF RANGES FROM NOTHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...TO PERHAPS A
TENTH OF AN INCH SOUTH OF HARRISBURG.
USED A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND SREF FOR THE ONSET TIMING...AREAL
COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF LIGHT-MDT RAIN PUSHING BACK TO THE NW AND
TWD CENTRAL PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 02/08Z HRRR RUN
SHOWS THE NWRN EDGE OF STEADY/LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH A KAOO TO
KUNV AND KIPT LINE BY 23Z.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL EDGE INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND REACH MID AND UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
RAIN OVERSPREADS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS LATER TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUES AT A LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...AND DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.
THE SREF AND GEFS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE INCREASING EAST TO
SELY FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH RAIN BACK TO THE NW DURING
THE DAY TODAY. BY THIS EVENING IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH
AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...PERHAPS A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR /BUT ONLY
PLUS 1 SIGMA AT 850 MB/ WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS. RAINFALL
RATES COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT HIGHLY LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE. A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH TO THE NORTH AND HURRICANE
JOAQUIN OFF THE SE COAST WILL CREATE A BREEZY FRIDAY...WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS CLOSE TO 20KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL LOOKING AT WET WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS THE LARGE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
RESULTS IN A NE TO E FLOW BECOMING MORE SE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THUS REGARDLESS OF INPUT FROM THE TROPICS...STILL LOOKING AT A
WINDY...COOL...WET PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND
MAYBE TUE AM...DEPENDING ON THE INTERACTION OF THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW WITH THE HURRICANE.
TRIMMED POPS AND QPF BY 20 PERCENT OR MORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE WWD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BAND SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB LIKELY TO BE
INTENSE...AS COLDER AIR BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NY AND
WARM...TROPICAL AIR ADVECTS TO THE NW FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS OF MID MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ACROSS SERN TERMINALS
AS STEADIER RAIN PUSHES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. FARTHER TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ERN CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SERN US WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK LLVL NERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY AS
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST BEGINS TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-MON...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE.
TUE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
728 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STAY ANCHORED OVER CROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND AN
EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND PERIODS OF RAIN...MAINLY LATE TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. POWERFUL
HURRICANE JOAQUIN NOW OVER THE BAHAMAS...APPEARS THAT HE WILL
TAKE A TRACK WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...AND HEAD
INTO THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP AT 09Z SHOWS INCREASINGLY PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN FALLING SEVERAL OF OUR SE COUNTIES /ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF KTHV...KMDT AND KMUI/.
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WAS EXPERIENCING CHILLY TEMPS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S...UNDER OVC SKIES WITH A LIGHT TO MDT NE SFC
WIND. BRADFORD HAS FALLING TO 38F THIS HOUR THANKS TO SOME THIN
SPOTS INTO CLOUD DECK.
THE 850 MB FRONT IS DRAPED FROM SERN VA...TO THE DELMARVA
REGION...WITH A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT EXTENDING NORTH TO BEYOND
THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE 850MB FLOW OFF THE OCEAN IS STILL FROM THE
ENE AND GENERALLY PARALLEL WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO PRECIP WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SPREADING QUICK TO THE NORTH AND WEST INTO OUR
CWA. LATEST MDL QPF RANGES FROM NOTHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA...TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH SOUTH OF HARRISBURG.
WILL CONTINUE TO EMPLOY A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND SREF FOR
THE ONSET TIMING...AREAL COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF LIGHT-MDT RAIN
PUSHING BACK TO THE NW AND TWD CENTRAL PENN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. 02/08Z HRRR RUN SHOWS THE NWRN EDGE OF STEADY/LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD REACH A KAOO TO KUNV AND KIPT LINE BY 23Z.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U30S OVER
THE NW MTNS...WHERE THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST WILL OCCUR...TO THE
L50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE A SOLID OVERCAST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAWN. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL EDGE INTO THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND
REACH MID AND UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
RAIN OVERSPREADS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS LATER TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUES AT A LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...AND DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.
THE SREF AND GEFS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE INCREASING EAST TO
SELY FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH RAIN BACK TO THE NW DURING
THE DAY TODAY. BY THIS EVENING IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH
AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...PERHAPS A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR /BUT ONLY
PLUS 1 SIGMA AT 850 MB/ WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS. RAINFALL
RATES COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT HIGHLY LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE. A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH TO THE NORTH AND HURRICANE
JOAQUIN OFF THE SE COAST WILL CREATE A BREEZY FRIDAY...WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS CLOSE TO 20KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL LOOKING AT WET WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS THE LARGE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
RESULTS IN A NE TO E FLOW BECOMING MORE SE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THUS REGARDLESS OF INPUT FROM THE TROPICS...STILL LOOKING AT A
WINDY...COOL...WET PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND
MAYBE TUE AM...DEPENDING ON THE INTERACTION OF THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW WITH THE HURRICANE.
TRIMMED POPS AND QPF BY 20 PERCENT OR MORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE WWD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BAND SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB LIKELY TO BE
INTENSE...AS COLDER AIR BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NY AND
WARM...TROPICAL AIR ADVECTS TO THE NW FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA AT 12Z.
FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ACROSS SERN TERMINALS
/KMDT AND KLNS/ TODAY...AS STEADIER RAIN AND LOWER CIGS PUSH
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...GENERALLY VFR CONDS SHOULD PERSIST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER ERN CANADA AND LOW PRES ACROSS THE SERN US
WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK LLVL NERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND SAT...AS A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST BEGINS TO DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-MON...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE.
TUE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
547 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STAY ANCHORED OVER CROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND AN
EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND PERIODS OF RAIN...MAINLY LATE TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. POWERFUL
HURRICANE JOAQUIN NOW OVER THE BAHAMAS...APPEARS THAT HE WILL
TAKE A TRACK WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...AND HEAD
INTO THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP AT 09Z SHOWS INCREASINGLY PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN FALLING SEVERAL OF OUR SE COUNTIES /ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF KTHV...KMDT AND KMUI/.
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WAS EXPERIENCING CHILLY TEMPS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S...UNDER OVC SKIES WITH A LIGHT TO MDT NE SFC
WIND. BRADFORD HAS FALLING TO 38F THIS HOUR THANKS TO SOME THIN
SPOTS INTO CLOUD DECK.
THE 850 MB FRONT IS DRAPED FROM SERN VA...TO THE DELMARVA
REGION...WITH A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT EXTENDING NORTH TO BEYOND
THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE 850MB FLOW OFF THE OCEAN IS STILL FROM THE
ENE AND GENERALLY PARALLEL WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO PRECIP WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SPREADING QUICK TO THE NORTH AND WEST INTO OUR
CWA. LATEST MDL QPF RANGES FROM NOTHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA...TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH SOUTH OF HARRISBURG.
WILL CONTINUE TO EMPLOY A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND SREF FOR
THE ONSET TIMING...AREAL COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF LIGHT-MDT RAIN
PUSHING BACK TO THE NW AND TWD CENTRAL PENN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. 02/08Z HRRR RUN SHOWS THE NWRN EDGE OF STEADY/LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD REACH A KAOO TO KUNV AND KIPT LINE BY 23Z.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U30S OVER
THE NW MTNS...WHERE THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST WILL OCCUR...TO THE
L50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE A SOLID OVERCAST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAWN. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL EDGE INTO THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND
REACH MID AND UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
RAIN OVERSPREADS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS LATER TONIGHT...AND
CONTINNUES AT A LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...AND DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.
THE SREF AND GEFS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE INCREASING EAST TO
SELY FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH RAIN BACK TO THE NW DURING
THE DAY TODAY. BY THIS EVENING IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH
AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...PERHAPS A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR /BUT ONLY
PLUS 1 SIGMA AT 850 MB/ WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS. RAINFALL
RATES COULD BE BRIEFLLY HEAVY IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT HIGHLY LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGIFICAN RISES ON
IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE. A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH TO THE NORTH AND HURRICANE
JOAQUIN OFF THE SE COAST WILL CREATE A BREEZY FRIDAY...WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS CLOSE TO 20KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL LOOKING AT WET WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS THE LARGE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
RESULTS IN A NE TO E FLOW BECOMING MORE SE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THUS REGARDLESS OF INPUT FROM THE TROPICS...STILL LOOKING AT A
WINDY...COOL...WET PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND
MAYBE TUE AM...DEPENDING ON THE INTERACTION OF THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW WITH THE HURRICANE.
TRIMMED POPS AND QPF BY 20 PERCENT OR MORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE WWD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BAND SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB LIKELY TO BE
INTENSE...AS COLDER AIR BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NY AND
WARM...TROPICAL AIR ADVECTS TO THE NW FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS ACROSS NRN PA AT 09Z...WITH LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CONDS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ACROSS SERN TERMINALS ON
FRIDAY...AS STEADIER RAIN AND LOWER CIGS PUSH NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE AREA. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...GENERALLY VFR CONDS SHOULD
PERSIST ON FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER
ERN CANADA AND LOW PRES ACROSS THE SERN US WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK
LLVL ERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT...AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
TUE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
510 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP AT 07Z SHOWS SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS STREAMING NORTH INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WAS EXPERIENCING CHILLY TEMPS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S...UNDER OVC SKIES WITH A LIGHT TO MDT NERLY SFC WIND.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR ON NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE TREAT OF
ADDITIONAL LGT RAIN OVERNIGHT TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST OF HARRISBURG.
THE 850 MB FRONT IS DRAPED FROM SERN VA...TO THE DELMARVA
REGION...WITH A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT EXTENDING NORTH TO BEYOND
THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE 850MB FLOW OFF THE OCEAN IS STILL FROM THE
ENE AND GENERALLY PARALLEL WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO PRECIP WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SPREADING QUICK TO THE NORTH AND WEST INTO OUR
CWA. LATEST MDL QPF RANGES FROM NOTHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA...TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH SOUTH OF HARRISBURG.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND SREF FOR TIMING...AREAL COVERAGE
AND AMOUNT OF LIGHT-MDT RAIN PUSHING BACK TO THE NWD AND TWD
CENTRAL PENN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U30S OVER
THE NW MTNS...WHERE THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST WILL OCCUR...TO
THE L50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE A SOLID OVERCAST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE SREF AND GEFS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE INCREASING EAST TO
SELY FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH RAIN BACK TO THE NW DURING
THE DAY TODAY. BY THIS EVENING IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH
AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...PERHAPS A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE. A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH TO THE NORTH AND HURRICANE
JOAQUIN OFF THE SE COAST WILL CREATE A BREEZY FRIDAY...WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS CLOSE TO 20KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HINTED AT LATELY...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROS THE NW TODAY.
HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING AT WET WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A LARGE HIGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA RESULTS IN A NE TO E FLOW BECOMING MORE SE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE SE THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPANDING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE MODELS HINT AT THESE AREA SHOULD
DIE BY SUNSET...HARD TO SEE THIS OCCURRING.
THUS REGARDLESS OF INPUT FROM THE TROPICS...STILL LOOKING AT A
WINDY...COOL...WET PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND. DID LOWER TEMPS
SOME AND UP WINDS SOME.
SOME RAIN COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND MAYBE TUE AM...DEPENDING
ON THE INTERACTION OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WITH THE HURRICANE.
LEFT QPF CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAD...JUST A TAD LOWER FURTHER OUT
IN TIME. STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
WOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
FRONTAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB LIKELY TO BE INTENSE...AS COLDER AIR
BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NY AND WARM...TROPICAL AIR ADVECTS
TO THE NW FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS ACROSS NRN PA AT 09Z...WITH LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CONDS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ACROSS SERN TERMINALS ON
FRIDAY...AS STEADIER RAIN AND LOWER CIGS PUSH NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE AREA. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...GENERALLY VFR CONDS SHOULD
PERSIST ON FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER
ERN CANADA AND LOW PRES ACROSS THE SERN US WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK
LLVL ERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT...AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
TUE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
322 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP AT 07Z SHOWS SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS STREAMING NORTH INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WAS EXPERIENCING CHILLY TEMPS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S...UNDER OVC SKIES WITH A LIGHT TO MDT NERLY SFC WIND.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR ON NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE TREAT OF
ADDITIONAL LGT RAIN OVERNIGHT TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST OF HARRISBURG.
THE 850 MB FRONT IS DRAPED FROM SERN VA...TO THE DELMARVA
REGION...WITH A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT EXTENDING NORTH TO BEYOND
THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE 850MB FLOW OFF THE OCEAN IS STILL FROM THE
ENE AND GENERALLY PARALLEL WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO PRECIP WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SPREADING QUICK TO THE NORTH AND WEST INTO OUR
CWA. LATEST MDL QPF RANGES FROM NOTHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA...TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH SOUTH OF HARRISBURG.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND SREF FOR TIMING...AREAL COVERAGE
AND AMOUNT OF LIGHT-MDT RAIN PUSHING BACK TO THE NWD AND TWD
CENTRAL PENN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U30S OVER
THE NW MTNS...WHERE THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST WILL OCCUR...TO
THE L50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE A SOLID OVERCAST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE SREF AND GEFS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE INCREASING EAST TO
SELY FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH RAIN BACK TO THE NW DURING
THE DAY TODAY. BY THIS EVENING IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH
AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...PERHAPS A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE. A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH TO THE NORTH AND HURRICANE
JOAQUIN OFF THE SE COAST WILL CREATE A BREEZY FRIDAY...WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS CLOSE TO 20KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HINTED AT LATELY...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROS THE NW TODAY.
HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING AT WET WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A LARGE HIGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA RESULTS IN A NE TO E FLOW BECOMING MORE SE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE SE THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPANDING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE MODELS HINT AT THESE AREA SHOULD
DIE BY SUNSET...HARD TO SEE THIS OCCURRING.
THUS REGARDLESS OF INPUT FROM THE TROPICS...STILL LOOKING AT A
WINDY...COOL...WET PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND. DID LOWER TEMPS
SOME AND UP WINDS SOME.
SOME RAIN COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND MAYBE TUE AM...DEPENDING
ON THE INTERACTION OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WITH THE HURRICANE.
LEFT QPF CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAD...JUST A TAD LOWER FURTHER OUT
IN TIME. STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
WOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
FRONTAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB LIKELY TO BE INTENSE...AS COLDER AIR
BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NY AND WARM...TROPICAL AIR ADVECTS
TO THE NW FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS WITH LAST NIGHT...KJST IS EXPERIENCING THE LOWEST CIGS
OVERNIGHT AS EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPES INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS ACROSS NRN PA...WITH LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS SERN
TERMINALS ON FRIDAY...AS STEADIER RAIN AND LOWER CIGS PUSH
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...GENERALLY VFR
CONDS SHOULD PERSIST ON FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRES OVER ERN CANADA AND LOW PRES ACROSS THE SERN US WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK LLVL ERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
TUE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
647 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS YET ANOTHER RAIN BLOB...WHICH IS A
VERY SCIENTIFIC METEOROLOGICAL TERM BY THE WAY...SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUNS...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE PLATEAU. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS UPWARD FOR THIS EVENING ACCORDINGLY WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH MAV AND MET MOS INDICATE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE INCORPORATED THIS INTO GRIDS/ZONES. REST OF
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
OF NOTE...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AS GFS IS NEARLY
30 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 80S. THIS IS
APPARENTLY DUE TO SOME PRONOUNCED 5-7 DEGREE WARMING OF 850MB
TEMPS. IN CONTRAST...THE NAM STRUGGLES TO WARM US INTO THE 70S ON
SUNDAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER STILL ANTICIPATED
TOMORROW...GFS SEEMS OUT TO LUNCH BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD
COMPROMISE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS YET ANOTHER RAIN BLOB...WHICH IS A
VERY SCIENTIFIC METEOROLOGICAL TERM BY THE WAY...SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUNS...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH ACTIVITY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE PLATEAU. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THIS EVENING WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH MAV AND MET MOS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY
RISE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE INCORPORATE THIS INTO GRIDS/ZONES. REST
OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
OF NOTE...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AS GFS IS NEARLY
30 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 80S. THIS IS
APPARENTLY DUE TO SOME PRONOUNCED 5-7 DEGREE WARMING OF 850MB
TEMPS. IN CONTRAST...THE NAM STRUGGLES TO WARM US INTO THE 70S ON
SUNDAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER STILL ANTICIPATED ON
SUNDAY...GFS SEEMS OUT TO LUNCH...BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD
COMPROMISE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE IN TERMS OF THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THAT UPPER
LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SW GA AND THOUGH THE POSITION OF THE
LOW WONT MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE TROUGH AXIS
ORIENTATION WILL. IN FACT...IT WILL GO FROM A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
NW- SE TILT...TO A W-E CONFIGURATION BY SUNDAY MORNING. WE ALREADY
SEE MILDER TEMPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC. THIS WARMER
AREA WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY BUT I CANNOT JUSTIFY THE AGGRESSIVE
WARMUP THAT THE GFS ELUDES TOWARD. SO...FOR TEMPS I WILL GO WITH A
GFS AND NAM BLEND. THE GFS LOOKS WAY TO WARM ON SUNDAY DESPITE THE
HEIGHT RISES. CLOUDS SHOULD STILL BE HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ON SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO
RUN TOO WARM ON HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AS WELL.
FOR PRECIP...WE DEFINITELY BE TRANSITIONING FROM A WEAK DEFORMATION
AREA TO MORE OF A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT SETUP. FROM EAST TO WEST.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND TRAIL
THAT OFF TO 40 POPS FAR WEST. MAY NEED TO GO A LITTLE HIGHER AS
THE4PM ISSUANCE APPROACHES. OTW...1/2 TO 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE COMMONPLACE ALONG THE PLATEAU FOR TONIGHT...A QUARTER INCH
CENTRAL AREAS AND A TENTH FAR WEST.
LOWER POPS FOR TOMORROW AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
MID STATE AND THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE MORE PROGRESSIVELY TOWARD
THE EAST. PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL RETURN BY MONDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGING TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR TUES
THROUGH THU. THE EURO MODEL FLATTENS THE RIDGE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
THE GFS. WILL THEREFORE BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE EXT...ON SAT...MODELS ON BOARD WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. WILL UP POPS AT THAT POINT TO THE 30 PERCENT
AREA. TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 55 76 59 80 / 80 30 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 53 76 57 80 / 50 20 10 0
CROSSVILLE 56 73 56 74 / 100 30 20 10
COLUMBIA 53 75 57 80 / 80 30 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 53 74 58 79 / 70 30 10 10
WAVERLY 53 75 57 80 / 40 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
641 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS YET ANOTHER RAIN BLOB...WHICH IS A
VERY SCIENTIFIC METEOROLOGICAL TERM BY THE WAY...SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUNS...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH ACTIVITY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE PLATEAU. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THIS EVENING WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH MAV AND MET MOS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY
RISE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE INCORPORATE THIS INTO GRIDS/ZONES. REST
OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
OF NOTE...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AS GFS IS NEARLY
30 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 80S. THIS IS
APPARENTLY DUE TO SOME PRONOUNCED 5-7 DEGREE WARMING OF 850MB
TEMPS. IN CONTRAST...THE NAM STRUGGLES TO WARM US INTO THE 70S ON
SUNDAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER STILL ANTICIPATED ON
SUNDAY...GFS SEEMS OUT TO LUNCH...BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD
COMPROMISE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE IN TERMS OF THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THAT UPPER
LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SW GA AND THOUGH THE POSITION OF THE
LOW WONT MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE TROUGH AXIS
ORIENTATION WILL. IN FACT...IT WILL GO FROM A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
NW- SE TILT...TO A W-E CONFIGURATION BY SUNDAY MORNING. WE ALREADY
SEE MILDER TEMPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC. THIS WARMER
AREA WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY BUT I CANNOT JUSTIFY THE AGGRESSIVE
WARMUP THAT THE GFS ELUDES TOWARD. SO...FOR TEMPS I WILL GO WITH A
GFS AND NAM BLEND. THE GFS LOOKS WAY TO WARM ON SUNDAY DESPITE THE
HEIGHT RISES. CLOUDS SHOULD STILL BE HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ON SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO
RUN TOO WARM ON HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AS WELL.
FOR PRECIP...WE DEFINITELY BE TRANSITIONING FROM A WEAK DEFORMATION
AREA TO MORE OF A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT SETUP. FROM EAST TO WEST.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND TRAIL
THAT OFF TO 40 POPS FAR WEST. MAY NEED TO GO A LITTLE HIGHER AS
THE4PM ISSUANCE APPROACHES. OTW...1/2 TO 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE COMMONPLACE ALONG THE PLATEAU FOR TONIGHT...A QUARTER INCH
CENTRAL AREAS AND A TENTH FAR WEST.
LOWER POPS FOR TOMORROW AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
MID STATE AND THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE MORE PROGRESSIVELY TOWARD
THE EAST. PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL RETURN BY MONDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGING TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR TUES
THROUGH THU. THE EURO MODEL FLATTENS THE RIDGE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
THE GFS. WILL THEREFORE BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE EXT...ON SAT...MODELS ON BOARD WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. WILL UP POPS AT THAT POINT TO THE 30 PERCENT
AREA. TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 55 76 59 80 / 80 30 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 53 76 57 80 / 50 20 10 0
CROSSVILLE 56 73 56 74 / 100 30 20 10
COLUMBIA 53 75 57 80 / 80 30 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 53 74 58 79 / 70 30 10 10
WAVERLY 53 75 57 80 / 40 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1250 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AIDED BY UPSLOPE EASTERLY COMPONENT SURFACE FLOW HAS
HELPED MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED LOW LEVEL STRATACUMULUS CLOUDS...AT
KCDS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BORDER WITH
WESTERN OKLAHOMA HAS PUSHED A SOLID STRATCUMULUS DECK SOUTHWEST
OVER THE TERMINAL THAT MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT BY 21Z.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...
UA RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST STILL HAS ITS ERN PERIPHERY
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...THUS PROMOTING N-NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE THAT HAS ROUNDED THE TOP OF THE UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROMOTING
AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE
FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO ACROSS THE NRN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SE TX
PANHANDLE. THE ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE
APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT...THOUGH HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF HINTS AT THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING A BIT MORE
SCATTERED BY SUNRISE /LIKELY PICKING UP ON INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE/ AND POSSIBLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS AND
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THE OTHER INTERESTING WX FEATURE IS AN AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS /BELOW 1000 FT AGL/ EXTENDING FROM THE ERN-HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES SE TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS THUS FAR.
THIS IS THANKS TO THE UPSLOPE SFC WINDS DRAWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS DECK...AND HENCE
SHOWS FURTHER LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
COMMENCING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS /AND MAYBE EVEN LIGHT FOG/...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE CLOUD DECKS MAY REMAIN
AOA 3000 FT AGL GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THERE /THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT/.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS DECK SCOURING OUT BY EARLY
AFTN...HOWEVER COOLER TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED
/70S AND 80S/ DUE TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS.
TONIGHT...THE UA RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY WHILST GETTING NUDGED EAST OF
THE FA MAKING WAY FOR AN UA LOW THAT IS PROGRESSING NE ACROSS NV
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES BY
TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE THE RESULT INITIALLY ACROSS THE WRN
ZONES...WHILE CONCURRENTLY A SFC TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE SAID AREA.
WITH PWATS HOLDING STEADY AOA 1.00 INCH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE SFC WIND COUPLED WITH THE LLJ KICKING UP TO 20-30 KTS...AND
THUS GIVING WAY TO ADEQUATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES /INITIALLY ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES/.
BEST 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SFC-BASED CAPE IS PROGGED W AND NW OF THE CWA
SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH 50S BEING COMMON ACROSS THE CWA...AND A FEW
40S NOTED ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES.
LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE TAKING A SERIOUS DIVERGENCE.
UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE NEAR OR OVER THE FCST AREA
FOR QUITE A WHILE NOW WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN AS SERIOUS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DIVES SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST CARVING OUT A TROUGH
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AS IT DOES. A CLOSED LOW WILL END UP OVER SRN
CALIF AS THE NEXT WORK WEEK STARTS. FROM THERE MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE ECMWF MOVING THIS LOW SLOWLY IN A GENERALLY ESEWD DIRECTION TO
NEAR EL PASO BY END OF DAY THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS OPENS THIS
TROUGH UP AND MOVES IT QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS TO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTN. FCST NEAR EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN
FAVORED BY WPC AND GIVEN TRACK RECORDS OF THE MODELS WILL ALSO
LEAN TOWARD THAT SOLUTION.
RESULTING FCST IS THUS QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN RECENT WEEKS WITH
TEMPS MAINLY 50S FOR LOWS AND 70S FOR HIGHS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE TROUGH FORMING
TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS COME TO AN END SUNDAY AND FOR
THE MOST PART SO WILL RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME STORMS TO MOVE OUT OF ERN NM LATE SUNDAY. RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WAITING FOR THE
LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION. THAT SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY WHEN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED BY INCREASED
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT BRING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL QUITE
A WHILE TO GO BEFORE THEN WITH MANY MODEL RUNS YET TO COME...SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PCT RANGE ATTM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 49 70 49 69 / 40 40 40 30
TULIA 47 69 48 71 / 30 40 30 20
PLAINVIEW 48 72 50 73 / 20 30 30 20
LEVELLAND 53 75 52 75 / 20 30 40 20
LUBBOCK 52 75 53 75 / 20 30 20 20
DENVER CITY 56 79 55 77 / 20 30 40 20
BROWNFIELD 55 78 55 76 / 20 30 30 20
CHILDRESS 51 73 53 76 / 20 20 20 20
SPUR 52 77 53 77 / 10 20 10 20
ASPERMONT 55 81 56 80 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN MVFR TO IFR DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS KPVW AND KLBB
THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...VFR DECKS WILL OCCUR AS SLIGHTLY
BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL COMMENCE
TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE TERMINALS AND COULD AFFECT THE
TERMINALS...PARTICULARLY KPVW AND KLBB TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD/SHORTLY AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...
UA RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST STILL HAS ITS ERN PERIPHERY
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...THUS PROMOTING N-NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE THAT HAS ROUNDED THE TOP OF THE UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROMOTING
AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE
FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO ACROSS THE NRN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SE TX
PANHANDLE. THE ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE
APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT...THOUGH HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF HINTS AT THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING A BIT MORE
SCATTERED BY SUNRISE /LIKELY PICKING UP ON INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE/ AND POSSIBLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS AND
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THE OTHER INTERESTING WX FEATURE IS AN AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS /BELOW 1000 FT AGL/ EXTENDING FROM THE ERN-HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES SE TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS THUS FAR.
THIS IS THANKS TO THE UPSLOPE SFC WINDS DRAWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS DECK...AND HENCE
SHOWS FURTHER LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
COMMENCING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS /AND MAYBE EVEN LIGHT FOG/...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE CLOUD DECKS MAY REMAIN
AOA 3000 FT AGL GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THERE /THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT/.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS DECK SCOURING OUT BY EARLY
AFTN...HOWEVER COOLER TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED
/70S AND 80S/ DUE TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS.
TONIGHT...THE UA RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY WHILST GETTING NUDGED EAST OF
THE FA MAKING WAY FOR AN UA LOW THAT IS PROGRESSING NE ACROSS NV
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES BY
TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE THE RESULT INITIALLY ACROSS THE WRN
ZONES...WHILE CONCURRENTLY A SFC TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE SAID AREA.
WITH PWATS HOLDING STEADY AOA 1.00 INCH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE SFC WIND COUPLED WITH THE LLJ KICKING UP TO 20-30 KTS...AND
THUS GIVING WAY TO ADEQUATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES /INITIALLY ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES/.
BEST 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SFC-BASED CAPE IS PROGGED W AND NW OF THE CWA
SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH 50S BEING COMMON ACROSS THE CWA...AND A FEW
40S NOTED ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES.
LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE TAKING A SERIOUS DIVERGENCE.
UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE NEAR OR OVER THE FCST AREA
FOR QUITE A WHILE NOW WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN AS SERIOUS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DIVES SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST CARVING OUT A TROUGH
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AS IT DOES. A CLOSED LOW WILL END UP OVER SRN
CALIF AS THE NEXT WORK WEEK STARTS. FROM THERE MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE ECMWF MOVING THIS LOW SLOWLY IN A GENERALLY ESEWD DIRECTION TO
NEAR EL PASO BY END OF DAY THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS OPENS THIS
TROUGH UP AND MOVES IT QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS TO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTN. FCST NEAR EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN
FAVORED BY WPC AND GIVEN TRACK RECORDS OF THE MODELS WILL ALSO
LEAN TOWARD THAT SOLUTION.
RESULTING FCST IS THUS QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN RECENT WEEKS WITH
TEMPS MAINLY 50S FOR LOWS AND 70S FOR HIGHS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE TROUGH FORMING
TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS COME TO AN END SUNDAY AND FOR
THE MOST PART SO WILL RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME STORMS TO MOVE OUT OF ERN NM LATE SUNDAY. RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WAITING FOR THE
LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION. THAT SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY WHEN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED BY INCREASED
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT BRING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL QUITE
A WHILE TO GO BEFORE THEN WITH MANY MODEL RUNS YET TO COME...SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PCT RANGE ATTM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 75 49 70 49 / 10 40 40 40
TULIA 73 47 69 48 / 10 30 40 30
PLAINVIEW 74 48 72 50 / 10 20 30 30
LEVELLAND 79 53 75 52 / 10 20 30 40
LUBBOCK 76 52 75 53 / 10 20 30 20
DENVER CITY 81 56 79 55 / 10 20 30 40
BROWNFIELD 80 55 78 55 / 10 20 30 30
CHILDRESS 75 51 73 53 / 30 20 20 20
SPUR 77 52 77 53 / 20 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 80 55 81 56 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
238 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...
UA RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST STILL HAS ITS ERN PERIPHERY
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...THUS PROMOTING N-NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE THAT HAS ROUNDED THE TOP OF THE UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROMOTING
AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE
FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO ACROSS THE NRN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SE TX
PANHANDLE. THE ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE
APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT...THOUGH HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF HINTS AT THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING A BIT MORE
SCATTERED BY SUNRISE /LIKELY PICKING UP ON INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE/ AND POSSIBLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS AND
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THE OTHER INTERESTING WX FEATURE IS AN AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS /BELOW 1000 FT AGL/ EXTENDING FROM THE ERN-HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES SE TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS THUS FAR.
THIS IS THANKS TO THE UPSLOPE SFC WINDS DRAWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS DECK...AND HENCE
SHOWS FURTHER LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
COMMENCING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS /AND MAYBE EVEN LIGHT FOG/...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE CLOUD DECKS MAY REMAIN
AOA 3000 FT AGL GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THERE /THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT/.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS DECK SCOURING OUT BY EARLY
AFTN...HOWEVER COOLER TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED
/70S AND 80S/ DUE TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS.
TONIGHT...THE UA RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY WHILST GETTING NUDGED EAST OF
THE FA MAKING WAY FOR AN UA LOW THAT IS PROGRESSING NE ACROSS NV
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES BY
TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE THE RESULT INITIALLY ACROSS THE WRN
ZONES...WHILE CONCURRENTLY A SFC TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE SAID AREA.
WITH PWATS HOLDING STEADY AOA 1.00 INCH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE SFC WIND COUPLED WITH THE LLJ KICKING UP TO 20-30 KTS...AND
THUS GIVING WAY TO ADEQUATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES /INITIALLY ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES/.
BEST 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SFC-BASED CAPE IS PROGGED W AND NW OF THE CWA
SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH 50S BEING COMMON ACROSS THE CWA...AND A FEW
40S NOTED ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE TAKING A SERIOUS DIVERGENCE.
UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE NEAR OR OVER THE FCST AREA
FOR QUITE A WHILE NOW WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN AS SERIOUS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DIVES SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST CARVING OUT A TROUGH
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AS IT DOES. A CLOSED LOW WILL END UP OVER SRN
CALIF AS THE NEXT WORK WEEK STARTS. FROM THERE MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE ECMWF MOVING THIS LOW SLOWLY IN A GENERALLY ESEWD DIRECTION TO
NEAR EL PASO BY END OF DAY THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS OPENS THIS
TROUGH UP AND MOVES IT QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS TO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTN. FCST NEAR EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN
FAVORED BY WPC AND GIVEN TRACK RECORDS OF THE MODELS WILL ALSO
LEAN TOWARD THAT SOLUTION.
RESULTING FCST IS THUS QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN RECENT WEEKS WITH
TEMPS MAINLY 50S FOR LOWS AND 70S FOR HIGHS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE TROUGH FORMING
TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS COME TO AN END SUNDAY AND FOR
THE MOST PART SO WILL RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME STORMS TO MOVE OUT OF ERN NM LATE SUNDAY. RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WAITING FOR THE
LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION. THAT SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY WHEN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED BY INCREASED
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT BRING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL QUITE
A WHILE TO GO BEFORE THEN WITH MANY MODEL RUNS YET TO COME...SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PCT RANGE ATTM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 75 49 70 49 / 10 40 40 40
TULIA 73 47 69 48 / 10 30 40 30
PLAINVIEW 74 48 72 50 / 10 20 30 30
LEVELLAND 79 53 75 52 / 10 20 30 40
LUBBOCK 76 52 75 53 / 10 20 30 20
DENVER CITY 81 56 79 55 / 10 20 30 40
BROWNFIELD 80 55 78 55 / 10 20 30 30
CHILDRESS 75 51 73 53 / 30 20 20 20
SPUR 77 52 77 53 / 20 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 80 55 81 56 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
230 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ATTM WAS TO LOWER RAINFALL
INTENSITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED ATTM. 12Z
MODELS ARE COMING IN AND INITIAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS STILL REVEAL
THE SAME DIVERSE SCENARIOS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THE
RAIN...BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST AMOUNTS
AND EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF THE AMOUNTS OCCUR.
SO FAR THIS MORNING THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 24 HOUR AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A HALF
INCH /0.50/ NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE TO AROUND AN INCH /1.0/ IN SOUTH
BOSTON...TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES NEAR THE COAST WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. RADAR INDICATES THE HEAVIEST PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
STREAMING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA AND A SECONDARY AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS OVER KY/TN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
ESSENTIALLY DIVIDING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE COAST FROM THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE TN VALLEY. THE MORNING RNK SOUNDING INDICATED A DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 800-600 MB WHICH IS HELPING TO MINIMIZE RAINFALL RATES
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA ATTM...THUS THE REASON TO TRIM
BOTH THE RATES AND QPF WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE JUST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON PINWHEELING SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE COAST WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
COMBINATION OF DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AS ENERGY TRACKS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALABAMA INTO FLORIDA
AND UPSLOPE WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER WILL RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
USED THE GFS AND RAP MODELS TO TIME A BROAD BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
21Z/5PM THIS EVENING AND 12Z/8AM SATURDAY.
USED WPC GUIDANCE AS A BASIS FOR THE RAINFALL FORECAST WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS. HAVE TONED
BACK PREVIOUS FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT WILL STILL BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING IS STILL HIGH. NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCHED WERE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED WIND OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE BUT STILL WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE. SIMILAR TO PHILOSOPHY IN THE WINTER WHEN
HEADLINES ARE ISSUED BASED ON IMPACT...HAVE GONE WITH A NON
CONVENTIONAL HIGH WIND WATCH...ALSO BASED ON IMPACT SINCE WINDS
OF THAT MAGNITUDE ARE UNLIKELY.
VERY STRONG INVERSION SEEN ON 06Z SOUNDINGS AT ABOUT 2000 FT AGL WITH
PRONOUNCED LAYER OF STABLE...COOL AIR BENEATH THE INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE SHORT WAVE AXIS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP
LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. WE LOWERED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
/0.25/ FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT A HALF /0.50/ INCH ON
EASTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE TO AN INCH /1.00/
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA BLUE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF
THIS RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF LOWERING
AMOUNTS SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT (2-5 INCHES...LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE). ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL ONLY DELAY FLOOD WATERS FROM RECEDING. DESPITE SOME OF
THESE CHANGES...WE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
IS...DUE TO A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN THAT COULD CHANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN. WE ALSO ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH WINDS (10-25
MPH) WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...SATURATED GROUND...WET
FOLIAGE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD UPROOT TREES.
GENERALLY...BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT JOAQUIN
WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER ITS NOT
UNANIMOUS IN THIS VERY COMPLEX PATTERN SO WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE WOODS YET. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRACK AND
FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY MONDAY. THE MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE
AND BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA NEAR
THE BORDER IN SOUTH CAROLINA OR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...
BY MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT ONLY LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP ALONG
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LINGERING...IF ANY AT ALL...AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS MORE EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT RIVER RUNOFF ISSUES LIKELY
TO CONTINUE. OBVIOUSLY...IF JOAQUIN DOES STILL MANAGE TO GET PULLED
WEST...ALL THIS COULD CHANGE FOR MONDAY...AND CONTINUED SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WOULD BE OF
CONCERN. BUT AGAIN...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
THE ADDITIONAL GOOD NEWS IS THAT FOR THE REMINDER OF NEXT WEEK A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN....WHICH IS THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS...WITH A MUCH NEEDED DRYING PERIOD AND
APPEARANCE OF THE SUN AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE 70S AGAIN...ANY FLOOD WATERS ON RIVERS WILL RECEDE...AND
RAPIDLY GROWING GRASS CAN BE MOWED AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. VISIBILITIES WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE PER
PERIODIC BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN. CIGS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY STABLE RANGING FROM 500 FEET TO 1500 FEET AGL.
WINDS ALOFT...3 TO 5KFT AGL ARE RATHER STRONG...OUT OF THE EAST
NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 50 KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG SURFACE
GUSTS...ESP NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE E/NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES. STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER TO MORE SHOWERY NATURE BY
SUNDAY WITH LINGERING MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO FINALLY BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A RETURN TO MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
FORECAST RAINFALL (QPF) AMOUNTS IN THE HYDROLOGIC MODELS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN REDUCED BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
THE CONSEQUENCE BEING LOWERED RIVER STAGE FORECASTS ON ALL THE MAJOR
BASINS. STILL EXPECTING 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
OCCURRING IN THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE BASINS.
THE DAN RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD ACROSS HALIFAX COUNTY BUT HAS FALLEN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FROM DANVILLE AND POINTS UPSTREAM. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL FORECAST AMOUNTS AND ALREADY HIGH STAGES THE DAN AND
LOWER ROANOKE REMAIN UNDER A FLOOD WARNING WITH RENEWED RISES
LIKELY. THE UPPER ROANOKE ABOVE SMITH MOUNTAIN STILL MAY REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RIVER IF THE CURRENT RAINFALL
FORECAST VERIFIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A RIVER
FLOOD WARNING. A SIMILAR SITUATION OBTAINS DOWNSTREAM OF SMITH
MOUNTAIN AT ALTAVISTA AND BROOKNEAL WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS
INDICATED IN THE RFC GUIDANCE BUT REDUCED CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES THE
ISSUANCE OF A WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WITH THESE LOWER QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE JAMES AND NEW RIVER BASINS
ALL RFC GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS THESE RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE EVENT. STILL FORECASTING HIGH ACTION STAGE LEVELS ON BOTH
THESE RIVERS AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH ON
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE GREENBRIER AND TENNESSEE BASIN RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE.
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY IN THIS
EVENT...ALTHOUGH THAT THREAT ALSO APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT
AS WELL. STILL WITH LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AND INTENSE
RAINFALL BANDS COULD CAUSE POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ010>020-
022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ012>020-022>024-032>035-043-045>047.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ007-009.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ005-006.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-
018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1213 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ATTM WAS TO LOWER RAINFALL
INTENSITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED ATTM. 12Z
MODELS ARE COMING IN AND INITIAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS STILL REVEAL
THE SAME DIVERSE SCENARIOS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THE
RAIN...BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST AMOUNTS
AND EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF THE AMOUNTS OCCUR.
SO FAR THIS MORNING THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 24 HOUR AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A HALF
INCH /0.50/ NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE TO AROUND AN INCH /1.0/ IN SOUTH
BOSTON...TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES NEAR THE COAST WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. RADAR INDICATES THE HEAVIEST PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
STREAMING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA AND A SECONDARY AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS OVER KY/TN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
ESSENTIALLY DIVIDING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE COAST FROM THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE TN VALLEY. THE MORNING RNK SOUNDING INDICATED A DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 800-600 MB WHICH IS HELPING TO MINIMIZE RAINFALL RATES
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA ATTM...THUS THE REASON TO TRIM
BOTH THE RATES AND QPF WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE JUST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON PINWHEELING SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE COAST WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
COMBINATION OF DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AS ENERGY TRACKS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALABAMA INTO FLORIDA
AND UPSLOPE WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER WILL RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
USED THE GFS AND RAP MODELS TO TIME A BROAD BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
21Z/5PM THIS EVENING AND 12Z/8AM SATURDAY.
USED WPC GUIDANCE AS A BASIS FOR THE RAINFALL FORECAST WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS. HAVE TONED
BACK PREVIOUS FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT WILL STILL BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING IS STILL HIGH. NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCHED WERE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED WIND OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE BUT STILL WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE. SIMILAR TO PHILOSOPHY IN THE WINTER WHEN
HEADLINES ARE ISSUED BASED ON IMPACT...HAVE GONE WITH A NON
CONVENTIONAL HIGH WIND WATCH...ALSO BASED ON IMPACT SINCE WINDS
OF THAT MAGNITUDE ARE UNLIKELY.
VERY STRONG INVERSION SEEN ON 06Z SOUNDINGS AT ABOUT 2000 FT AGL WITH
PRONOUNCED LAYER OF STABLE...COOL AIR BENEATH THE INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE SHORT WAVE AXIS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP
LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. WE LOWERED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
/0.25/ FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT A HALF /0.50/ INCH ON
EASTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE TO AN INCH /1.00/
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA BLUE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF
THIS RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF LOWERING
AMOUNTS SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT (2-5 INCHES...LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE). ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL ONLY DELAY FLOOD WATERS FROM RECEDING. DESPITE SOME OF
THESE CHANGES...WE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
IS...DUE TO A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN THAT COULD CHANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN. WE ALSO ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH WINDS (10-25
MPH) WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...SATURATED GROUND...WET
FOLIAGE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD UPROOT TREES.
GENERALLY...BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT JOAQUIN
WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER ITS NOT
UNANIMOUS IN THIS VERY COMPLEX PATTERN SO WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE WOODS YET. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRACK AND
FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY MONDAY. THE MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE
AND BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA NEAR
THE BORDER IN SOUTH CAROLINA OR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...
BY MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT ONLY LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP ALONG
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LINGERING...IF ANY AT ALL...AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS MORE EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT RIVER RUNOFF ISSUES LIKELY
TO CONTINUE. OBVIOUSLY...IF JOAQUIN DOES STILL MANAGE TO GET PULLED
WEST...ALL THIS COULD CHANGE FOR MONDAY...AND CONTINUED SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WOULD BE OF
CONCERN. BUT AGAIN...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
THE ADDITIONAL GOOD NEWS IS THAT FOR THE REMINDER OF NEXT WEEK A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN....WHICH IS THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS...WITH A MUCH NEEDED DRYING PERIOD AND
APPEARANCE OF THE SUN AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE 70S AGAIN...ANY FLOOD WATERS ON RIVERS WILL RECEDE...AND
RAPIDLY GROWING GRASS CAN BE MOWED AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN BEGINNING AT THE KLWB AIRPORT BY 14Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MAJORITY OF THE
GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 18 TO 28 KNOT RANGE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE E/NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BE
GUSTY AT TIMES. STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER TO MORE SHOWERY
NATURE BY SUNDAY WITH LINGERING MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO FINALLY BUILD IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
FORECAST RAINFALL (QPF) AMOUNTS IN THE HYDROLOGIC MODELS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN REDUCED BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
THE CONSEQUENCE BEING LOWERED RIVER STAGE FORECASTS ON ALL THE MAJOR
BASINS. STILL EXPECTING 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
OCCURRING IN THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE BASINS.
THE DAN RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD ACROSS HALIFAX COUNTY BUT HAS FALLEN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FROM DANVILLE AND POINTS UPSTREAM. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL FORECAST AMOUNTS AND ALREADY HIGH STAGES THE DAN AND
LOWER ROANOKE REMAIN UNDER A FLOOD WARNING WITH RENEWED RISES
LIKELY. THE UPPER ROANOKE ABOVE SMITH MOUNTAIN STILL MAY REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RIVER IF THE CURRENT RAINFALL
FORECAST VERIFIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A RIVER
FLOOD WARNING. A SIMILAR SITUATION OBTAINS DOWNSTREAM OF SMITH
MOUNTAIN AT ALTAVISTA AND BROOKNEAL WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS
INDICATED IN THE RFC GUIDANCE BUT REDUCED CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES THE
ISSUANCE OF A WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WITH THESE LOWER QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE JAMES AND NEW RIVER BASINS
ALL RFC GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS THESE RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE EVENT. STILL FORECASTING HIGH ACTION STAGE LEVELS ON BOTH
THESE RIVERS AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH ON
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE GREENBRIER AND TENNESSEE BASIN RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE.
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY IN THIS
EVENT...ALTHOUGH THAT THREAT ALSO APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT
AS WELL. STILL WITH LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AND INTENSE
RAINFALL BANDS COULD CAUSE POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ010>020-
022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ012>020-022>024-032>035-043-045>047.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ007-009.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ005-006.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-
018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/CF
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1203 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ATTM WAS TO LOWER RAINFALL
INTENSITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED ATTM. 12Z
MODELS ARE COMING IN AND INITIAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS STILL REVEAL
THE SAME DIVERSE SCENARIOS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THE
RAIN...BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST AMOUNTS
AND EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF THE AMOUNTS OCCUR.
SO FAR THIS MORNING THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 24 HOUR AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A HALF
INCH /0.50/ NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE TO AROUND AN INCH /1.0/ IN SOUTH
BOSTON...TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES NEAR THE COAST WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. RADAR INDICATES THE HEAVIEST PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
STREAMING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA AND A SECONDARY AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS OVER KY/TN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
ESSENTIALLY DIVIDING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE COAST FROM THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE TN VALLEY. THE MORNING RNK SOUNDING INDICATED A DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 800-600 MB WHICH IS HELPING TO MINIMIZE RAINFALL RATES
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA ATTM...THUS THE REASON TO TRIM
BOTH THE RATES AND QPF WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE JUST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON PINWHEELING SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE COAST WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
COMBINATION OF DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AS ENERGY TRACKS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALABAMA INTO FLORIDA
AND UPSLOPE WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER WILL RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
USED THE GFS AND RAP MODELS TO TIME A BROAD BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
21Z/5PM THIS EVENING AND 12Z/8AM SATURDAY.
USED WPC GUIDANCE AS A BASIS FOR THE RAINFALL FORECAST WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS. HAVE TONED
BACK PREVIOUS FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT WILL STILL BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING IS STILL HIGH. NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCHED WERE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED WIND OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE BUT STILL WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE. SIMILAR TO PHILOSOPHY IN THE WINTER WHEN
HEADLINES ARE ISSUED BASED ON IMPACT...HAVE GONE WITH A NON
CONVENTIONAL HIGH WIND WATCH...ALSO BASED ON IMPACT SINCE WINDS
OF THAT MAGNITUDE ARE UNLIKELY.
VERY STRONG INVERSION SEEN ON 06Z SOUNDINGS AT ABOUT 2000 FT AGL WITH
PRONOUNCED LAYER OF STABLE...COOL AIR BENEATH THE INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE SHORT WAVE AXIS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP
LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. WE LOWERED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
/0.25/ FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT A HALF /0.50/ INCH ON
EASTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE TO AN INCH /1.00/
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA BLUE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF
THIS RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF LOWERING
AMOUNTS SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT (2-5 INCHES...LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE). ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL ONLY DELAY FLOOD WATERS FROM RECEDING. DESPITE SOME OF
THESE CHANGES...WE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
IS...DUE TO A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN THAT COULD CHANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN. WE ALSO ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH WINDS (10-25
MPH) WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...SATURATED GROUND...WET
FOLIAGE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD UPROOT TREES.
GENERALLY...BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT JOAQUIN
WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER ITS NOT
UNANIMOUS IN THIS VERY COMPLEX PATTERN SO WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE WOODS YET. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRACK AND
FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY MONDAY. THE MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE
AND BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA NEAR
THE BORDER IN SOUTH CAROLINA OR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...
BY MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT ONLY LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP ALONG
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LINGERING...IF ANY AT ALL...AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS MORE EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT RIVER RUNOFF ISSUES LIKELY
TO CONTINUE. OBVIOUSLY...IF JOAQUIN DOES STILL MANAGE TO GET PULLED
WEST...ALL THIS COULD CHANGE FOR MONDAY...AND CONTINUED SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WOULD BE OF
CONCERN. BUT AGAIN...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
THE ADDITIONAL GOOD NEWS IS THAT FOR THE REMINDER OF NEXT WEEK A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN....WHICH IS THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS...WITH A MUCH NEEDED DRYING PERIOD AND
APPEARANCE OF THE SUN AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE 70S AGAIN...ANY FLOOD WATERS ON RIVERS WILL RECEDE...AND
RAPIDLY GROWING GRASS CAN BE MOWED AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN BEGINNING AT THE KLWB AIRPORT BY 14Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MAJORITY OF THE
GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 18 TO 28 KNOT RANGE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE E/NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BE
GUSTY AT TIMES. STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER TO MORE SHOWERY
NATURE BY SUNDAY WITH LINGERING MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO FINALLY BUILD IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 750 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE LOWER ROANOKE AND
DAN RIVERS...EVEN THOUGH RANDOLPH AND DANVILLE HAVE FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...DUE TO THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION EVENT WHICH WILL
DRIVE STAGES HIGHER AGAIN. THIS EVENT STILL PROMISES TO BE A MAJOR
RAIN-MAKER AND FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE 4 RFCS THAT SERVE OUR
AREA SHOW RIVER FLOODING IN ALL BASINS EXCEPT FOR THE TENNESSEE.
ALL GUIDANCE IS BASED ON FORECAST RAINFALL (QPF) OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS WHICH ACCORDING TO THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
VARIES FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES. NO FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED YET
ON THESE RIVERS DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY USUALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH QPF-BASED RIVER FORECASTS.
CURRENT FORECAST HYDROGRAPHS ON THE AHPS PAGE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
PAGE AT HTTP:/WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=RNK DO NOT YET
REFLECT THE ENTIRE AMOUNT OF FORECAST RAINFALL. YET EVEN WITHOUT THE
FULL QPF...SEVERAL RIVERS ARE FORECAST WELL INTO THE MODERATE
CATEGORY. IF THE RAIN DOES REACH CURRENT WPC FORECAST TOTALS THEN
MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE ON SEVERAL RIVERS AS IS
SHOWN ON SEVERAL RECENT RUNS OF THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (MMEFS). UPDATES TO THE RIVER FORECASTS ARE LIKELY
EVERY 6 TO 12 HOURS DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION AND STABILITY OF
EXISTING FORECASTS.
FLASH FLOODING IS CLEARLY A HIGH PROBABILITY IN THIS EVENT AS WELL.
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AT 3-HOURS RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND WILL BE FALLING QUICKLY AS RAIN MOVES IN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT.
FINALLY...THE POSSIBILITY OF LANDSLIDES AND MAJOR DEBRIS FLOWS
CANNOT BE IGNORED. IT HAS BEEN SHOWN IN SEVERAL POST-EVENT STUDIES
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THAT RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT LANDSLIDE ACTIVITY. PARTS OF WATAUGA
COUNTY NC HAVE EXPERIENCED VERY SEVERE LANDSLIDES IN THE
PAST...MOST NOTABLY BACK IN AUGUST 1940. THE STEEPER TERRAIN OF
THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA HAS ALSO SUFFERED SEVERE LANDSLIDES
HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969 BEING THE BEST EXAMPLE OF A HIGH
IMPACT EVENT. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTAINS CALL TO
ACTION WORDING FOR POSSIBLE LANDSLIDES IN SEVERAL COUNTIES.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ010>020-
022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ012>020-022>024-032>035-043-045>047.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ007-009.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ005-006.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-
018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/CF
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
752 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT THURSDAY...
COMBINATION OF DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AS ENERGY TRACKS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALABAMA INTO FLORIDA
AND UPSLOPE WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER WILL RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. USED THE GFS AND RAP MODELS TO TIME A BROAD
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 12Z/8AM SATURDAY.
USED WPC GUIDANCE AS A BASIS FOR THE RAINFALL FORECAST WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS. SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE INDICATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AS IT ADVANCED FROM YADKIN COUNTY INTO
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...BUT OVERALL NOT SEEING A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THIS EVENT. HAVE TONED BACK PREVIOUS
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT WILL STILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH THAT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING IS STILL HIGH.
NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCHED WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED WIND OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE BUT STILL WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE. SIMILAR TO PHILOSOPHY IN THE WINTER WHEN
HEADLINES ARE ISSUED BASED ON IMPACT...HAVE GONE WITH A NON
CONVENTIONAL HIGH WIND WATCH...ALSO BASED ON IMPACT SINCE WINDS
OF THAT MAGNITUDE ARE UNLIKELY.
VERY STRONG INVERSION SEEN ON 06Z SOUNDINGS AT ABOUT 2000 FT AGL WITH
PRONOUNCED LAYER OF STABLE...COOL AIR BENEATH THE INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE SHORT WAVE AXIS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP
LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. WE LOWERED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
/0.25/ FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT A HALF /0.50/ INCH ON
EASTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE TO AN INCH /1.00/
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA BLUE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF
THIS RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF LOWERING
AMOUNTS SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT (2-5 INCHES...LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE). ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL ONLY DELAY FLOOD WATERS FROM RECEDING. DESPITE SOME OF
THESE CHANGES...WE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
IS...DUE TO A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN THAT COULD CHANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN. WE ALSO ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH WINDS (10-25
MPH) WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...SATURATED GROUND...WET
FOLIAGE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD UPROOT TREES.
GENERALLY...BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT JOAQUIN
WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER ITS NOT
UNANIMOUS IN THIS VERY COMPLEX PATTERN SO WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE WOODS YET. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRACK AND
FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY MONDAY. THE MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE
AND BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA NEAR
THE BORDER IN SOUTH CAROLINA OR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...
BY MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT ONLY LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP ALONG
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LINGERING...IF ANY AT ALL...AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS MORE EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT RIVER RUNOFF ISSUES LIKELY
TO CONTINUE. OBVIOUSLY...IF JOAQUIN DOES STILL MANAGE TO GET PULLED
WEST...ALL THIS COULD CHANGE FOR MONDAY...AND CONTINUED SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WOULD BE OF
CONCERN. BUT AGAIN...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
THE ADDITIONAL GOOD NEWS IS THAT FOR THE REMINDER OF NEXT WEEK A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN....WHICH IS THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS...WITH A MUCH NEEDED DRYING PERIOD AND
APPEARANCE OF THE SUN AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE 70S AGAIN...ANY FLOOD WATERS ON RIVERS WILL RECEDE...AND
RAPIDLY GROWING GRASS CAN BE MOWED AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN BEGINNING AT THE KLWB AIRPORT BY 14Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MAJORITY OF THE
GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 18 TO 28 KNOT RANGE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE E/NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BE
GUSTY AT TIMES. STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER TO MORE SHOWERY
NATURE BY SUNDAY WITH LINGERING MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO FINALLY BUILD IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 750 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE LOWER ROANOKE AND
DAN RIVERS...EVEN THOUGH RANDOLPH AND DANVILLE HAVE FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...DUE TO THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION EVENT WHICH WILL
DRIVE STAGES HIGHER AGAIN. THIS EVENT STILL PROMISES TO BE A MAJOR
RAIN-MAKER AND FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE 4 RFCS THAT SERVE OUR
AREA SHOW RIVER FLOODING IN ALL BASINS EXCEPT FOR THE TENNESSEE.
ALL GUIDANCE IS BASED ON FORECAST RAINFALL (QPF) OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS WHICH ACCORDING TO THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
VARIES FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES. NO FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED YET
ON THESE RIVERS DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY USUALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH QPF-BASED RIVER FORECASTS.
CURRENT FORECAST HYDROGRAPHS ON THE AHPS PAGE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
PAGE AT HTTP:/WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=RNK DO NOT YET
REFLECT THE ENTIRE AMOUNT OF FORECAST RAINFALL. YET EVEN WITHOUT THE
FULL QPF...SEVERAL RIVERS ARE FORECAST WELL INTO THE MODERATE
CATEGORY. IF THE RAIN DOES REACH CURRENT WPC FORECAST TOTALS THEN
MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE ON SEVERAL RIVERS AS IS
SHOWN ON SEVERAL RECENT RUNS OF THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (MMEFS). UPDATES TO THE RIVER FORECASTS ARE LIKELY
EVERY 6 TO 12 HOURS DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION AND STABILITY OF
EXISTING FORECASTS.
FLASH FLOODING IS CLEARLY A HIGH PROBABILITY IN THIS EVENT AS WELL.
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AT 3-HOURS RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND WILL BE FALLING QUICKLY AS RAIN MOVES IN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT.
FINALLY...THE POSSIBILITY OF LANDSLIDES AND MAJOR DEBRIS FLOWS
CANNOT BE IGNORED. IT HAS BEEN SHOWN IN SEVERAL POST-EVENT STUDIES
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THAT RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT LANDSLIDE ACTIVITY. PARTS OF WATAUGA
COUNTY NC HAVE EXPERIENCED VERY SEVERE LANDSLIDES IN THE
PAST...MOST NOTABLY BACK IN AUGUST 1940. THE STEEPER TERRAIN OF
THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA HAS ALSO SUFFERED SEVERE LANDSLIDES
...HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969 BEING THE BEST EXAMPLE OF A HIGH
IMPACT EVENT. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTAINS CALL TO
ACTION WORDING FOR POSSIBLE LANDSLIDES IN SEVERAL COUNTIES.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ010>020-
022>024-032>035-043.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ012>020-022>024-032>035-043-045>047.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR VAZ007-009.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ044>047-058-
059.
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ001>004-018>020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-
018>020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ005-006.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/CF
HYDROLOGY...AMS/NF/PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
506 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT THURSDAY...
COMBINATION OF DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AS ENERGY TRACKS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALABAMA INTO FLORIDA
AND UPSLOPE WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER WILL RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. USED THE GFS AND RAP MODELS TO TIME A BROAD
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 12Z/8AM SATURDAY.
USED WPC GUIDANCE AS A BASIS FOR THE RAINFALL FORECAST WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS. SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE INDICATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AS IT ADVANCED FROM YADKIN COUNTY INTO
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...BUT OVERALL NOT SEEING A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THIS EVENT. HAVE TONED BACK PREVIOUS
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT WILL STILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH THAT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING IS STILL HIGH.
NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCHED WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED WIND OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE BUT STILL WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE. SIMILAR TO PHILOSOPHY IN THE WINTER WHEN
HEADLINES ARE ISSUED BASED ON IMPACT...HAVE GONE WITH A NON
CONVENTIONAL HIGH WIND WATCH...ALSO BASED ON IMPACT SINCE WINDS
OF THAT MAGNITUDE ARE UNLIKELY.
VERY STRONG INVERSION SEEN ON 06Z SOUNDINGS AT ABOUT 2000 FT AGL WITH
PRONOUNCED LAYER OF STABLE...COOL AIR BENEATH THE INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE SHORT WAVE AXIS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP
LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. WE LOWERED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
/0.25/ FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT A HALF /0.50/ INCH ON
EASTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE TO AN INCH /1.00/
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA BLUE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF
THIS RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF LOWERING
AMOUNTS SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT (2-5 INCHES...LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE). ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL ONLY DELAY FLOOD WATERS FROM RECEDING. DESPITE SOME OF
THESE CHANGES...WE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
IS...DUE TO A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN THAT COULD CHANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN. WE ALSO ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH WINDS (10-25
MPH) WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...SATURATED GROUND...WET
FOLIAGE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD UPROOT TREES.
GENERALLY...BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT JOAQUIN
WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER ITS NOT
UNANIMOUS IN THIS VERY COMPLEX PATTERN SO WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE WOODS YET. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRACK AND
FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY MONDAY. THE MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE
AND BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA NEAR
THE BORDER IN SOUTH CAROLINA OR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...
BY MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT ONLY LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP ALONG
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LINGERING...IF ANY AT ALL...AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS MORE EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT RIVER RUNOFF ISSUES LIKELY
TO CONTINUE. OBVIOUSLY...IF JOAQUIN DOES STILL MANAGE TO GET PULLED
WEST...ALL THIS COULD CHANGE FOR MONDAY...AND CONTINUED SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WOULD BE OF
CONCERN. BUT AGAIN...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
THE ADDITIONAL GOOD NEWS IS THAT FOR THE REMINDER OF NEXT WEEK A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN....WHICH IS THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS...WITH A MUCH NEEDED DRYING PERIOD AND
APPEARANCE OF THE SUN AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE 70S AGAIN...ANY FLOOD WATERS ON RIVERS WILL RECEDE...AND
RAPIDLY GROWING GRASS CAN BE MOWED AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. BCB/BLF ARE ALREADY DOWN TO IFR CEILINGS...WHILE THE REST
ARE BARELY HANGING ON TO MVFR. EXPECT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
CEILINGS/VISBYS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL AND ALL TAF LOCATIONS
WILL BE IFR BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND HOLD THERE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND COULD GUST
TO 15-25KTS AT TIMES.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE E/NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BE
GUSTY AT TIMES. STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER TO MORE SHOWERY
NATURE BY SUNDAY WITH LINGERING MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO FINALLY BUILD IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE LOWER ROANOKE AND
DAN RIVERS...EVEN THOUGH RANDOLPH AND DANVILLE HAVE FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...DUE TO THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION EVENT WHICH WILL
DRIVE STAGES HIGHER AGAIN. THIS EVENT STILL PROMISES TO BE A MAJOR
RAIN-MAKER AND FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE 4 RFCS THAT SERVE OUR
AREA SHOW RIVER FLOODING IN ALL BASINS EXCEPT FOR THE TENNESSEE.
ALL GUIDANCE IS BASED ON FORECAST RAINFALL (QPF) OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS WHICH ACCORDING TO THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
VARIES FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES...GREENBRIER
AND TENNESSEE BASIN TO AS MUCH AS 7 TO 9 INCHES IN THE UPPER NEW
AND YADKIN. 4 TO 5 INCHES IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL
RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE ROANOKE..MIDDLE NEW AND LOWER JAMES. NO
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED YET ON THESE RIVERS DUE TO THE
HIGH UNCERTAINTY USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH QPF-BASED RIVER
FORECASTS.
CURRENT FORECAST HYDROGRAPHS ON THE AHPS PAGE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
PAGE AT HTTP:/WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=RNK DO NOT YET
REFLECT THE ENTIRE AMOUNT OF FORECAST RAINFALL. YET EVEN WITHOUT THE
FULL QPF...SEVERAL RIVERS ARE FORECAST WELL INTO THE MODERATE
CATEGORY. IF THE RAIN DOES REACH CURRENT WPC FORECAST TOTALS THEN
MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE ON SEVERAL RIVERS AS IS
SHOWN ON SEVERAL RECENT RUNS OF THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (MMEFS). UPDATES TO THE RIVER FORECASTS ARE LIKELY
EVERY 6 TO 12 HOURS DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION AND STABILITY OF
EXISTING FORECASTS.
FLASH FLOODING IS CLEARLY A HIGH PROBABILITY IN THIS EVENT AS WELL.
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AT 3-HOURS RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND WILL BE FALLING QUICKLY AS RAIN MOVES IN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT.
FINALLY...THE POSSIBILITY OF LANDSLIDES AND MAJOR DEBRIS FLOWS
CANNOT BE IGNORED. IT HAS BEEN SHOWN IN SEVERAL POST-EVENT STUDIES
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THAT RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT LANDSLIDE ACTIVITY. PARTS OF WATAUGA
COUNTY NC HAVE EXPERIENCED VERY SEVERE LANDSLIDES IN THE
PAST...MOST NOTABLY BACK IN AUGUST 1940. THE STEEPER TERRAIN OF
THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA HAS ALSO SUFFERED SEVERE
LANDSLIDES...HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969 BEING THE BEST EXAMPLE OF
A HIGH END EVENT. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTAINS CALL TO
ACTION WORDING FOR POSSIBLE LANDSLIDES IN SEVERAL COUNTIES.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035-043.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ012>020-022>024-032>035-043-045>047.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR VAZ007-009.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ044>047-058-
059.
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ001>004-018>020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ005-006.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...CF/JH
HYDROLOGY...AMS/NF/PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
142 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL PUSH WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 825 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MSAS SHOWING LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH AS
THE WEDGE ENHANCES BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST AND THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING. LATEST EVENING SOUNDINGS
ALSO STILL SHOWING SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH HAS KEPT RAIN TO A
MINIMUM EARLY TONIGHT. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE BRINGING PATCHY
RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO THE WEDGE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
PROGGED ON THE LIGHT SIDE PER LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLE AND HRRR OUTPUT.
THIS MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER EARLIER GFS AND WELL BELOW THE
QPF FROM THE NAM WHICH SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE INCREASING EASTERLY 85H JET. THUS CUT BACK ON POPS EARLY ON
AND THEN KEPT CLOSER TO PREVIOUS LIKELY/CATEGORICAL COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR MAINLY LOW QPF OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEAST AT THIS POINT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COOL AS
WELL WITH LOWS MOSTLY LOW/MID 50S AND SOME 40S ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OTHER THAN TO UPDATE FOR POTENTIAL DEBRIS AND FALLING TREES DUE TO
WET SOILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEEPING AN EYE ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED ACROSS OUR AREA WITHIN
THE PAST 24 HOURS NOW SITS JUST OFF THE COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES LIES AND INDUCED WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...RESULTING
IN A NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF COOL AIR INTO THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S AND
UPPER 50S...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES OBSERVED PASSING ACROSS THE
AREA...TRIGGERING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IN SPOTS.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DRIFTS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER BANDS OF RAIN...WHICH MAY START TO BECOME
MODERATE IN INTENSITY AT TIMES TOWARD DAWN AS THE GREATER
INSTABILITY APPROACHES OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM
BUCKINGHAM SOUTHWARD TO CASWELL. WILL ALSO START TO SEE RAIN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES TO AROUND 35 MPH...BRINGING
DEEPER MOISTURE IN FROM THE ATLANTIC TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH UPPER 40S EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER
RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...
STILL ON TRACK FOR A MAJOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT THAT WILL AFFECT OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING...AS WELL AS LANDSLIDES...NUMEROUS
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT NONE OF THE HAZARDS DISCUSSED
HERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE CONCERNING HURRICANE JOAQUIN
INDICATES AN INCREASING PROBABILITY THAT THE STORM WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE...AND WILL NOT IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
ALL WEATHER MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...
ALLOWING A BOUNDARY OF STRONG CONVERGENCE TO DRIFT INLAND FROM THE
COAST ACROSS OUR AREA. MODELS HAVE STARTED INDICATING THAT THE
BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN MAY ARRIVE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED...WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN ENTERING OUR PIEDMONT
COUNTIES EAST OF A DANVILLE TO LYNCHBURG LINE DURING LATE FRIDAY
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN WILL THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS EASTERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE RAMP UP TO
45 TO 50 MPH...FEEDING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN.
MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD STALLING THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL PROLONG THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF
ROANOKE. LOWER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN CELLS IS LIKELY...MEANING THAT SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN MAY ACCUMULATE OVER A GIVEN AREA IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME.
FACTOR IN THAT THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA IS ALREADY
SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS...IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE
NEW RAINFALL WILL TRANSLATE TO RUNOFF VERY QUICKLY...LEADING TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. AS SUCH...FEEL COMFORTABLE IN
INCLUDING SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE IN THE
EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE POSSIBILITY
OF ROCKSLIDES/LANDSLIDES.
AS RAINFALL BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY...
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO RIVER FLOODING. WITH THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUMEROUS RIVERS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO FLOOD CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...
SOME POSSIBLY INTO MAJOR FLOOD. ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE
POTENTIAL OF RIVER FLOODING CAN BE FOUND BELOW IN THE HYDRO
SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...
GENERALLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT JOAQUIN
WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER ITS NOT
UNANIMOUS IN THIS VERY COMPLEX PATTERN SO WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE WOODS YET. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRACK
AND FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY MONDAY. WHILE MAIN DEFORMATION
ZONE AND BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA
NEAR THE BORDER IN SOUTH CAROLINA OR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...THERE
IS STILL A STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME OVERRUNNING AND
UPSLOPE INTO THE NW NC MTNS. FEEL THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP MAINLY INTO NORTH CAROLINA PARTS OF
OUR FCST AREA. AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MORE THAN A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY UPPER CLOSED LOW AND
POSSIBILITY IT MAY REMAIN MORE STATIONARY...CANT RULE OUT SOMEWHAT
HIGHER RAINFALL CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES STILL
LOOKS GOOD.
BY MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT ONLY LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP ALONG
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LINGERING...IF ANY AT ALL...AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS MORE EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT RIVER RUNOFF ISSUES LIKELY
TO CONTINUE. OBVIOUSLY...IF JOAQUIN DOES STILL MANAGE TO GET PULLED
WEST...ALL THIS COULD CHANGE FOR MONDAY...AND CONTINUED SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WOULD BE OF
CONCERN. BUT AGAIN...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
THE ADDITIONAL GOOD NEWS IS THAT FOR THE REMINDER OF NEXT WEEK A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN....WHICH IS THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS...WITH A MUCH NEEDED DRYING PERIOD AND
APPEARANCE OF THE SUN AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE 70S AGAIN...ANY FLOOD WATERS ON RIVERS WILL RECEDE...AND
RAPIDLY GROWING GRASS CAN BE MOWED AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. BCB/BLF ARE ALREADY DOWN TO IFR CEILINGS...WHILE THE REST
ARE BARELY HANGING ON TO MVFR. EXPECT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
CEILINGS/VISBYS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL AND ALL TAF LOCATIONS
WILL BE IFR BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND HOLD THERE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND COULD GUST
TO 15-25KTS AT TIMES.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE E/NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BE
GUSTY AT TIMES. STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER TO MORE SHOWERY
NATURE BY SUNDAY WITH LINGERING MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO FINALLY BUILD IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE LOWER ROANOKE AND
DAN RIVERS...EVEN THOUGH RANDOLPH AND DANVILLE HAVE FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...DUE TO THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION EVENT WHICH WILL
DRIVE STAGES HIGHER AGAIN. THIS EVENT STILL PROMISES TO BE A MAJOR
RAIN-MAKER AND FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE 4 RFCS THAT SERVE OUR
AREA SHOW RIVER FLOODING IN ALL BASINS EXCEPT FOR THE TENNESSEE.
ALL GUIDANCE IS BASED ON FORECAST RAINFALL (QPF) OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS WHICH ACCORDING TO THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
VARIES FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES...GREENBRIER
AND TENNESSEE BASIN TO AS MUCH AS 7 TO 9 INCHES IN THE UPPER NEW
AND YADKIN. 4 TO 5 INCHES IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL
RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE ROANOKE..MIDDLE NEW AND LOWER JAMES. NO
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED YET ON THESE RIVERS DUE TO THE
HIGH UNCERTAINTY USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH QPF-BASED RIVER
FORECASTS.
CURRENT FORECAST HYDROGRAPHS ON THE AHPS PAGE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
PAGE AT HTTP:/WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=RNK DO NOT YET
REFLECT THE ENTIRE AMOUNT OF FORECAST RAINFALL. YET EVEN WITHOUT THE
FULL QPF...SEVERAL RIVERS ARE FORECAST WELL INTO THE MODERATE
CATEGORY. IF THE RAIN DOES REACH CURRENT WPC FORECAST TOTALS THEN
MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE ON SEVERAL RIVERS AS IS
SHOWN ON SEVERAL RECENT RUNS OF THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (MMEFS). UPDATES TO THE RIVER FORECASTS ARE LIKELY
EVERY 6 TO 12 HOURS DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION AND STABILITY OF
EXISTING FORECASTS.
FLASH FLOODING IS CLEARLY A HIGH PROBABILITY IN THIS EVENT AS WELL.
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AT 3-HOURS RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND WILL BE FALLING QUICKLY AS RAIN MOVES IN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT.
FINALLY...THE POSSIBILITY OF LANDSLIDES AND MAJOR DEBRIS FLOWS
CANNOT BE IGNORED. IT HAS BEEN SHOWN IN SEVERAL POST-EVENT STUDIES
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THAT RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT LANDSLIDE ACTIVITY. PARTS OF WATAUGA
COUNTY NC HAVE EXPERIENCED VERY SEVERE LANDSLIDES IN THE
PAST...MOST NOTABLY BACK IN AUGUST 1940. THE STEEPER TERRAIN OF
THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA HAS ALSO SUFFERED SEVERE
LANDSLIDES...HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969 BEING THE BEST EXAMPLE OF A
HIGH END EVENT. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTAINS CALL TO
ACTION WORDING FOR POSSIBLE LANDSLIDES IN SEVERAL COUNTIES.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035-043.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR VAZ007-009.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ044>047-058-
059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ005-006.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...CF/JH
HYDROLOGY...AMS/NF/PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
955 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY AND NOSING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS LIFTING NORTH OVER THE STATE BRINGING A SWATH OF BROKEN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS IS LIFTING
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PEEL OUT EARLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE.
BUT EVEN AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENS...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BREEZY. LOW STRATUS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY IS PROJECTED TO SURGE NORTHWEST INTO MUCH OF EAST-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE COMBO OF CLOUDS AND
WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS ON PAR WITH LAST NIGHTS READINGS. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER N-C WI...SO WILL ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY THERE. BUT A NORTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD KEEP FROST POTENTIAL
MORE MARGINAL OVER CENTRAL WI.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTHEAST BUT STILL REMAIN
FAIRLY DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
PUSH SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE
MORNING BUT THEN MIX OUT SOME IN THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...AND A FEW MODELS SPIT OUT
LIGHT QPF. PROGGED SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE ENOUGH SATURATION SO
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PCPN TRENDS WITH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WEDS NGT
INTO THURSDAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT EAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERATE
SOME CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS IN
EASTERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH EAST FLOW IS SHALLOW AND OVER-
WATER INSTABILITY IS WEAK (LK-H8 DELTA-T`S 7 TO 12 C)...SO
PROBABLY MORE OF A DRIZZLE THREAT THAN ANYTHING ELSE. NOT SURE
HOW FAR WEST THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GET...SO DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE PREV FCST...WHICH HAD LESS CLOUDS NORTHWEST...AS WELL AS
COOL TEMPS/FROST. AFTER A COOL START...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE INTO
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S BY TUES.
OF GREATER CONCERN IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION FROM WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE STRONG DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH A 35-45 KT LLJ...MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND UPPER LEVEL JET/SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY. IN ADDITION...PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES...WITH H8 DEW POINTS AROUND +10 C...SO MOISTURE
SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER OUR
WSTRN COUNTIES WEDS NGT...AND OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER...AS H8 LI`S
INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW HALF OF
THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 954 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO A MAINLY VFR CIGS. INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MVFR CIGS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
WORK INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PATCHY IFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVER INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. EAST WINDS
WILL BE LESS SUNDAY BUT STILL GUSTY ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ005-010>012.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR. SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH SURFACE RIDGE ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL.
THE 02.12Z GFS/NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING SURFACE RIDGE
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST CAN BE EXPECTED TO FORM
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...PATCHY FROST WILL FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS
EXPECTED TO WRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA PER THE 02.12Z GFS/NAM 925 AND 850MB RH FIELDS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LATEST 02.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SATURATION FROM NEAR THE SURFACE TO AROUND 850MB OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 09Z MONDAY. VERTICAL
MOTION WEAK NEAR THE SURFACE TO 850MB OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE
02.12Z MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF DRIZZLE OUT
OF THE FORECAST.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 02.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02.12Z GFS/ECMWF IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN PUSHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE 02.12Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
02.12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINIMAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH ATMOSPHERE COLUMN DRY AND SURFACE
RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
KEEP SKIES SKC-SCT WITH NO IMPACTS TO VSBYS. MARGINAL LLWS TONIGHT
WITH RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MID 30 KTS BY 1400 FT AT
KLSE/KRST BETWEEN 03-09Z. GOING TO KEEP OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-
042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
903 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING CHEYENNE.
VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER AND ONE HALF MILE. LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY ENTERING
LARAMIE COUNTY FROM COLORADO...AND THIS MAY TEMPORARILY CAUSE
THE FOG TO LIFT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NOW...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES FROM CHEYENNE TO
THE I-80 SUMMIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. NOT REALLY SEEING ANY UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCES THAT COULD KICK OFF SHOWERS...SO CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSAIC RADAR IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION UP IN RIVERTONS
AREA...JUST NORTH OF CARBON COUNTY THATS SHOWING A SLOW SOUTHEAST
PROGRESSION. HRRR SHOWING SOME CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND DRIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY WAIT
FOR THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
BEFORE PUBLISHING THE FORECAST.
EXPECTING A REPEAT TONIGHT FOR FOG/STRATUS. MAYBE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD COMBINE TO GIVE MOST OF US A
COLD/DAMP NIGHT. ALL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE
SURFACE...EVEN OUT BY RAWLINS. CONTINUED THE WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN ENDING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS
UP INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL THERE...BUT
MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO OVERNIGHT FOG MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM CHEYENNE TO WHEATLAND. TRENDED THE FORECAST
THAT WAY FOR MONDAY MORNING.
WESTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO +8C. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S AS THIS HAPPENS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER EASTERN UTAH...COMBINED WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
WYOMING COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY...LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH...SO NO MORE THAN ISOLATED
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...EVEN MORE DRYING OUT WITH NORTHWEST ALOFT ALOFT...THUS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES NORTHWEST WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...THOUGH WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.
SATURDAY...SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
VERY MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD STRATUS
AND IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. IFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE (LAR AND RWL) AFTER AROUND 05Z. WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 15 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE STAY IN
A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS. WIDESPREAD FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ROTATING
AROUND A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
IF WE KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...COVERAGE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WITH US
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS. SO NO
ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZF
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
553 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. NOT REALLY SEEING ANY UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCES THAT COULD KICK OFF SHOWERS...SO CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSAIC RADAR IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION UP IN RIVERTONS
AREA...JUST NORTH OF CARBON COUNTY THATS SHOWING A SLOW SOUTHEAST
PROGRESSION. HRRR SHOWING SOME CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND DRIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY WAIT
FOR THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
BEFORE PUBLISHING THE FORECAST.
EXPECTING A REPEAT TONIGHT FOR FOG/STRATUS. MAYBE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD COMBINE TO GIVE MOST OF US A
COLD/DAMP NIGHT. ALL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE
SURFACE...EVEN OUT BY RAWLINS. CONTINUED THE WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN ENDING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS
UP INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL THERE...BUT
MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO OVERNIGHT FOG MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM CHEYENNE TO WHEATLAND. TRENDED THE FORECAST
THAT WAY FOR MONDAY MORNING.
WESTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO +8C. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S AS THIS HAPPENS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER EASTERN UTAH...COMBINED WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
WYOMING COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY...LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH...SO NO MORE THAN ISOLATED
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...EVEN MORE DRYING OUT WITH NORTHWEST ALOFT ALOFT...THUS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES NORTHWEST WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...THOUGH WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.
SATURDAY...SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
VERY MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD STRATUS
AND IFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. IFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE (LAR AND RWL) AFTER AROUND 05Z. WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 15 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE STAY IN
A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS. WIDESPREAD FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ROTATING
AROUND A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
IF WE KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...COVERAGE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WITH US
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS. SO NO
ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1140 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
AREA RADAR SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST. ALSO...WYDOT WEBCAMS TO THE WEST OF CHEYENNE
SHOWING VERY DENSE FOG CONTINUING AS OF 8 AM THIS MORNING. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TIME TODAY.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING WE MAY STAY DOWN ALL DAY IN STRATUS
AND FOG. CERTAINLY BY NOON THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES. WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER THIS MORNING AND ADJUST AS
NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. WYDOT WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW EXTREMELY LOW
VISIBILITIES AROUND VEDAUWOO...AND RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE
INDICATED OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT KCYS
AS WELL. STRONG LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE AS EVIDENCED BY SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S OVER THE PLAINS. DO NOT SEE ANY REASON FOR
FOG TO LIFT ANYTIME SOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADZY
FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD INTO KCYS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS AM. THIS WILL
BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ATOP PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE IN
EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS
COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL
HAIL. IT IS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST A THREAT FOR CONVECTION
WILL EXIST TODAY WITH SUCH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY...BUT WE
ARE DEALING WITH A COOL/DYNAMIC SYSTEM SO BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES VIRTUALLY ANYWHERE.
INTRODUCED CATEGORICAL POPS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT ALONG AND E
OF A CHEYENNE WYO TO HARRISON NEB LINE. THE NAM/GFS/ECM/GEM ARE ALL
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN H25 JET AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LIFTING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THAT TIME WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AT 700 MILLIBARS. THIS SHOULD BE
A GREAT SETUP FOR A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD...HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BEST MID-LEVEL PVA WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS WELL. MODELED QPF FIELDS
ARE PLENTY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER WARM
SYSTEM WITH MOST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW H7 TEMPS WARMER THAN +2 C
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND WET BULB EFFECTS...
IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET IN THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. SHOULD BE VERY LOW IMPACT THOUGH. IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT AM WITH A SIMILAR LOW-LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINING INTACT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A RAW DAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIP COMBINING
WITH COOL THERMAL PROFILES BENEATH THE UPPER LOW (H7 TEMPS LESS THAN
6 DEG C ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA) TO EFFECTIVELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT
15 KTS OR SO GIVEN A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. EXPECT DECREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN
ON SUNDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH
AND WIND FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND
LOW STRATUS ON SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY WITH THE POSITION
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TO START THE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES APPEAR BY MID WEEK
AS THE GFS LIFTS THE TROUGH EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CO/NM...WHILE THE
ECMWF SLOWS AND STALLS THE LOW OVER THE NM/WEST TX BORDER.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH EASTERN CO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MONDAY. DIFFLEUNT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME WILL
AVERAGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THE TROUGH AND EASTERN CO SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WY INCLUDING
KCYS THROUGH 21Z...WITH MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
DRASTICALLY IMPROVE AT KCYS TODAY WITH OBS SHOWING ONE QUARTER MILE
AND FOG AT CHEYENNE AIRPORT AT 1730Z. CONDITION MAY NOT IMPROVE TO
MVFR EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS SOME RAINFALL
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO AND
EASTERN WYOMING. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KT WILL
PREVAIL. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REDEVELOP THIS EVENING EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 02Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A MUCH COOLER AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET. ALTHOUGH WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ116>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
800 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
AREA RADAR SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST. ALSO...WYDOT WEBCAMS TO THE WEST OF CHEYENNE
SHOWING VERY DENSE FOG CONTINUING AS OF 8 AM THIS MORNING. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TIME TODAY.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING WE MAY STAY DOWN ALL DAY IN STRATUS
AND FOG. CERTAINLY BY NOON THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES. WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER THIS MORNING AND ADJUST AS
NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. WYDOT WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW EXTREMELY LOW
VISIBILITIES AROUND VEDAUWOO...AND RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE
INDICATED OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT KCYS
AS WELL. STRONG LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE AS EVIDENCED BY SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S OVER THE PLAINS. DO NOT SEE ANY REASON FOR
FOG TO LIFT ANYTIME SOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADZY
FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD INTO KCYS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS AM. THIS WILL
BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ATOP PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE IN
EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS
COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL
HAIL. IT IS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST A THREAT FOR CONVECTION
WILL EXIST TODAY WITH SUCH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY...BUT WE
ARE DEALING WITH A COOL/DYNAMIC SYSTEM SO BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES VIRTUALLY ANYWHERE.
INTRODUCED CATEGORICAL POPS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT ALONG AND E
OF A CHEYENNE WYO TO HARRISON NEB LINE. THE NAM/GFS/ECM/GEM ARE ALL
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN H25 JET AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LIFTING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THAT TIME WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AT 700 MILLIBARS. THIS SHOULD BE
A GREAT SETUP FOR A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD...HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BEST MID-LEVEL PVA WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS WELL. MODELED QPF FIELDS
ARE PLENTY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER WARM
SYSTEM WITH MOST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW H7 TEMPS WARMER THAN +2 C
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND WET BULB EFFECTS...
IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET IN THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. SHOULD BE VERY LOW IMPACT THOUGH. IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT AM WITH A SIMILAR LOW-LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINING INTACT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A RAW DAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIP COMBINING
WITH COOL THERMAL PROFILES BENEATH THE UPPER LOW (H7 TEMPS LESS THAN
6 DEG C ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA) TO EFFECTIVELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT
15 KTS OR SO GIVEN A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. EXPECT DECREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN
ON SUNDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH
AND WIND FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND
LOW STRATUS ON SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY WITH THE POSITION
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TO START THE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES APPEAR BY MID WEEK
AS THE GFS LIFTS THE TROUGH EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CO/NM...WHILE THE
ECMWF SLOWS AND STALLS THE LOW OVER THE NM/WEST TX BORDER.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH EASTERN CO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MONDAY. DIFFLEUNT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME WILL
AVERAGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THE TROUGH AND EASTERN CO SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WY INCLUDING
CHEYENNE THROUGH 15Z...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. CONDITION MAY NOT IMPROVE TO VFR
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KT WILL PREVAIL. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A MUCH COOLER AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET. ALTHOUGH WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ116>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
940 PM PDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Storm moving into NorCal will bring cooler weather, windy
conditions, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms this
weekend. Showers will linger into Monday over the Sierra Nevada
south of Highway 50.
&&
.DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Upper low over Norcal will be dropping SSWwd to just S of the SFO
Bay area by 06z and S of our CWA by 12z Sun. Strong cyclonic flow
around the low has resulted in precip trending a little farther Wwd
over our CWA and we adjusted the PoP line a little farther Wwd to
include Solano Co per the HRRR model. T-storms have been pulsing and
mainly in the NErn quadrant of the upper low. As the upper low
continues to drop SSWwd tonite...the precip/isolated clusters of
T-storms should also sag Swd. Instability may linger past 06z so
have updated the forecasts to include a chance of thunder past the
midnite hour mainly S of Plumas/Sierra Co-KCIC line.
Leading edge of Nly winds has also been evident on radar as line of
convergence and initiating showers/storms along the convergent zone.
The activity has been quick to pulse up/down and may include small
hail. Behind the line the Nly winds are increasing and more or less
verifying the wind advsry at several of the sites. Valley winds on
the wane at press time...and will likely let advsry for the
valley expire at 11 pm. JHM
.Previous Discussion...
Total rain amounts will mostly be light in the valley (trace amounts
to a few hundredths) while rain over the western Sierra slopes could
range from a tenth of an inch up to a half inch (locally higher near
the crest and in vicinity of thunderstorms). Snow levels will be
above 9000 ft so light snow amounts are possible near the Sierra
Crest.
The primary concern with this storm are the increasing winds as
this storm tracks across our region. 3 pm wind observations at
Redding Airport had gusts close to 40 mph...Sacramento
International gusts near 25 mph...Vacaville gusts near 30 mph.
Strongest north to northeast winds this evening will be in the
Northern/Western Sacramento Valley and the Coastal Range between
Shasta County to Lake County with gusts up to 40 mph for valley
and up to 50 mph in higher terrain. Overnight, northeasterly winds
will also pick up along the western Sierra slopes north of
Interstate 80 with gusts 40-50 mph. Winds could easily knock down
large branches and trees that have been weakened by the drought
and wildfires. Downed trees may cause power outages or damage
vehicles/buildings. Wind advisory remains in effect overnight into
Sunday morning. Winds will gradually lessen throughout the day
Sunday and any shower activity should be limited to areas south of
Interstate 80.
Another concern overnight is whether thunderstorms develop near
burnscars along the Sierra Nevada. Heavy downpours from the
thunderstorms could cause debris flows (ie near the Butte Fire).
JBB
Showers may linger over the Sierra south of Highway 50 on Monday
due to wraparound moisture from the Low over southern NV/southeast
CA area. Ridging builds in with gradually increasing temperatures
and dry conditions as the Low weakens and moves eastward.
JClapp
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Upper level high pressure ridging expected to remain over the
western U.S through the extended period. Genreally light winds are
expected through this time. Daytime highs Wednesday are forecast
to come in near to a little above normal. Temperatures will warm
slightly each day reaching several degrees above normal by next
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Upper low dropping southward through northern California over
next 24 hours. Scattered Showers and isolated thunderstorms
mainly over the sierra tonight. VFR conditons expected next 24
horus with ceilings above 50k feet. Gusty winds over the
Sacrametno valley...coastal mountains and southern Cascades into
Sunday. North to northeast wind gusts over 40 mph possible.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Central Sacramento
Valley-Clear Lake/Southern Lake County-Mountains Southwestern
Shasta County to Northern Lake County-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Shasta
Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-Western Plumas County/Lassen
Park.
RED FLAG WARNING until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Central Sacramento
Valley in Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern Sutter, and Butte County
Below 1000 Ft-Eastern Mendocino NF-Eastern Portion of
Shasta/Trinity NF-Lake County Portion of Lake-Napa-Sonoma Unit-
Northern Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama County Line Below
1000 Ft-Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western Portions of
Tehama-Glenn Unit-Southern Sacramento Valley in Yolo-Sacramento
Far Western Placer, southern Sutter and Solano County Below 1000
Ft.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
537 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY, KEEPING A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN
TAKES IT CLOSE TO BERMUDA, AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AND
MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THRU OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE PASS BY
TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND
INCLUDES A STRONGER, BROADER BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE
THERMAL`S WERE SPLIT BETWEEN THE NAM AT 850MB AND GFS AT 925MB.
THE RUNNING THEME CONTINUES WITH THE DP/DT BEING A SLOWER EVOLUTION
OF THE OVERALL PATTERN.
WE WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING.
WINDS ARE VERY SLOWLY DECREASING, BUT WE ARE STILL GETTING SOME
GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S (MPH). USED LATEST NAM`S 925MB WINDS AS
A TIMING BASIS. ITS TREND IS STILL SLOWLY DOWNWARD. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY, WE SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA TODAY. CONFIDENCE
INCREASES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
OTHERWISE, MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWS THE
MESOSCALE HRRR AND HI RES ARW THE CLOSEST AS THEY ARE MATCHING THE
ONGOING DRIZZLE OBS THE BEST. ITS MENTION IS MAINLY FROM THE I95
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WE HAVE MADE THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
DRY BEFORE STARTING TO BRING BACK CHANCES LATE AS ANOTHER SLUG OF
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE OUR WAY. ANY
CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE POCONOS.
WE WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE DAY PEAKS THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
RELAXATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, BETTER MIXING
THOUGH KEEPS GUSTS RELATIVELY THE SAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WE BRING BACK CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
IN INTERIOR AREAS, WE SHOULD FINALLY START SEEING A RELAXATION IN
THE WINDS, ALTHOUGH GUSTINESS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE FETCH FOR MOST OF OUR CWA IS
STILL FROM THE OCEAN. SO OTHER THAN THE POCONOS, NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT
MUCH CLEARING IN OUR CWA. WE WENT WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE,
CLOUDIER GUIDANCE AND OUR MIN TEMPS ARE TOWARD THE HIGHER RANGE OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
A PERIOD OF TRANSITION IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AS REX BLOCK OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THIS OCCURS, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY. A
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US /THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BLOCK/ WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IN THE MONDAY-
TUESDAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THE GUSTINESS SHOULD LARGELY ABATE
BY TUESDAY. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AOB AVERAGE ON MONDAY, AND
AOA AVERAGE THEREAFTER.
DETAILS...
MONDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ALOFT AS THE REGION
WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL BETWEEN SYSTEMS, AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CONFLUENT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET,
MOVING OFFSHORE JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS RESULTS IN SUBSIDENCE
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE COLUMN, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
OF I-95, WHERE THE MARITIME INFLUENCE DECREASES. THUS, EXPECT
A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHERE
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED IN
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT, THE AREA
WILL LARGELY BE WITHIN THE CONFLUENT REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THEREFORE, MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE PRECIP, EVEN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT/AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT TIMING THIS FEATURE LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, GIVEN THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW,
THIS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
06Z TAFS CONTINUE WINDY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
REST OF OVERNIGHT...CIGS MAINLY BETWEEN 1000-2000FT, SOME IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. WHILE SOME NON VSBY RESTRICTING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS, WE JUST CARRIED IT AT KACY
AND KMIV WITHE SOME UP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.
THIS MORNING...A HIGHER MVFR CIG IS PREDICTED WITH NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD MIX A BIT MORE AND WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS INLAND AIRPORTS/TERMINALS.
THIS AFTERNOON...FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS CIGS BECOMING VFR.
ELSEWHERE WE ARE MAINTAINING A HIGHER MVFR CIG. WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED SIMILAR TO THE MORNING.
SUNDAY EVENING...CIGS REMAINING MVFR AT KMIV AND KACY WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KTS.
ELSEWHERE WE WILL FORECAST A VFR CIG, BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FAR
NORTHWEST. WE KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BUT
DROP THE GUSTS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST OCCURRING IS
FOR NORTHERN AIRPORTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
AT KACY AND KMIV OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS AT ACY AND MIV
COULD GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TREND OF DECREASING THE WINDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. WE KEPT THE SAME
EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AS THEY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT FIRST.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
EXCLUDING DELAWARE BAY THRU 12Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE FROM GALE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
TIME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA FIVE FEET
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
820 PM UPDATE TO CANCEL THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DELAWARE
RIVER AND THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY (NEW CASTLE COUNTY, DE AND SALEM
COUNTY, NJ) AND REPLACE IT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THRU
SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH THE ETSS AND DBOFS TIDAL PREDICTION CAME IN
BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND ONE FOOT TOO HIGH WITH THIS PAST HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING. THIS GUIDANCE HAS ALSO VERIFIED TOO
HIGH WITH PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE ETSS AND OFS GUIDANCE MAY HAVE PARTIALLY TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
THE BIAS AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER FOR THE EARLY MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY BUT LIKELY ARE STILL TOO
HIGH. THE OFS PREDICTION KEEPS REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA BELOW
MODERATE STAGE FOR BOTH HIGH TIDES TOMORROW WHILE THE ETSS
PREDICTION IS RIGHT AT MODERATE. THE IN-HOUSE REGRESSION GUIDANCE,
WHICH HAS VERIFIED THE BEST THUS FAR, BARELY GETS REEDY POINT TO
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY.
THE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE.
THE WORST OF THE FLOODING (WIDESPREAD MODERATE) WILL CONTINUE OVER
CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ AND EASTERN DE, PARTICULARLY IN THE BACK BAYS AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS NOT ALLOWED THE WATER THAT MADE IT IN THERE
DURING PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES TO DRAIN. WE`LL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IN SOME OF
THESE VULNERABLE BACK BAYS.
ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE FROM ATLANTIC COUNTY NORTHWARD, COASTAL
FLOODING ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE UPPER END OF MINOR. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UP AS ONCE AGAIN THE BACK BAYS
WILL BE AT RISK TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY. WATER LEVELS DID NOT INCREASE AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THE NEWEST TIDAL GUIDANCE, WHICH TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE
PREVIOUS BIAS, NO LONGER FORECAST ADVISORY LEVEL FLOODING THRU THE
WEEKEND.
THE THREAT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS TO END BY MONDAY,
THOUGH MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
445 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY, KEEPING A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN
TAKES IT CLOSE TO BERMUDA, AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AND
MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THRU OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE PASS BY
TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND
INCLUDES A STRONGER, BROADER BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE
THERMAL`S WERE SPLIT BETWEEN THE NAM AT 850MB AND GFS AT 925MB.
THE RUNNING THEME CONTINUES WITH THE DP/DT BEING A SLOWER EVOLUTION
OF THE OVERALL PATTERN.
WE WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING. WINDS
ARE VERY SLOWLY DECREASING AND WHILE IT WILL REMAIN WINDY, WE SHOULD
STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA TODAY. CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
OTHERWISE, MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWS THE
MESOSCALE HRRR AND HI RES ARW THE CLOSEST AS THEY ARE MATCHING THE
ONGOING DRIZZLE OBS THE CLOSEST. ITS MENTION IS MAINLY FROM THE
I95 CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WE HAVE MADE THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON DRY BEFORE STARTING TO BRING BACK CHANCES LATE AS ANOTHER
SLUG OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE OUR WAY. ANY
CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE POCONOS. WE
WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE DAY PEAKS THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
RELAXATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, BETTER MIXING
THOUGH KEEPS GUSTS RELATIVELY THE SAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WE BRING BACK CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
IN INTERIOR AREAS, WE SHOULD FINALLY START SEEING A RELAXATION IN
THE WINDS, ALTHOUGH GUSTINESS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE FETCH FOR MOST OF OUR CWA IS
STILL FROM THE OCEAN. SO OTHER THAN THE POCONOS, NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT
MUCH CLEARING IN OUR CWA. WE WENT WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE,
CLOUDIER GUIDANCE AND OUR MIN TEMPS ARE TOWARD THE HIGHER RANGE OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
A PERIOD OF TRANSITION IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AS REX BLOCK OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THIS OCCURS, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY. A
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US /THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BLOCK/ WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IN THE MONDAY-
TUESDAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THE GUSTINESS SHOULD LARGELY ABATE
BY TUESDAY. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AOB AVERAGE ON MONDAY, AND
AOA AVERAGE THEREAFTER.
DETAILS...
MONDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ALOFT AS THE REGION
WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL BETWEEN SYSTEMS, AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CONFLUENT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET,
MOVING OFFSHORE JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS RESULTS IN SUBSIDENCE
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE COLUMN, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
OF I-95, WHERE THE MARITIME INFLUENCE DECREASES. THUS, EXPECT
A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHERE
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED IN
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT, THE AREA
WILL LARGELY BE WITHIN THE CONFLUENT REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THEREFORE, MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE PRECIP, EVEN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT/AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT TIMING THIS FEATURE LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, GIVEN THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW,
THIS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
06Z TAFS CONTINUE WINDY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
REST OF OVERNIGHT...CIGS MAINLY BETWEEN 1000-2000FT, SOME IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. WHILE SOME NON VSBY RESTRICTING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS, WE JUST CARRIED IT AT KACY
AND KMIV WITHE SOME UP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.
THIS MORNING...A HIGHER MVFR CIG IS PREDICTED WITH NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD MIX A BIT MORE AND WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS INLAND AIRPORTS/TERMINALS.
THIS AFTERNOON...FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS CIGS BECOMING VFR.
ELSEWHERE WE ARE MAINTAINING A HIGHER MVFR CIG. WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED SIMILAR TO THE MORNING.
SUNDAY EVENING...CIGS REMAINING MVFR AT KMIV AND KACY WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KTS.
ELSEWHERE WE WILL FORECAST A VFR CIG, BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FAR
NORTHWEST. WE KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BUT
DROP THE GUSTS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST OCCURRING IS
FOR NORTHERN AIRPORTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
AT KACY AND KMIV OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS AT ACY AND MIV
COULD GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TREND OF DECREASING THE WINDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. WE KEPT THE SAME
EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AS THEY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT FIRST.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
EXCLUDING DELAWARE BAY THRU 12Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE FROM GALE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
TIME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA FIVE FEET
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
820 PM UPDATE TO CANCEL THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DELAWARE
RIVER AND THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY (NEW CASTLE COUNTY, DE AND SALEM
COUNTY, NJ) AND REPLACE IT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THRU
SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH THE ETSS AND DBOFS TIDAL PREDICTION CAME IN
BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND ONE FOOT TOO HIGH WITH THIS PAST HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING. THIS GUIDANCE HAS ALSO VERIFIED TOO
HIGH WITH PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE ETSS AND OFS GUIDANCE MAY HAVE PARTIALLY TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
THE BIAS AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER FOR THE EARLY MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY BUT LIKELY ARE STILL TOO
HIGH. THE OFS PREDICTION KEEPS REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA BELOW
MODERATE STAGE FOR BOTH HIGH TIDES TOMORROW WHILE THE ETSS
PREDICTION IS RIGHT AT MODERATE. THE IN-HOUSE REGRESSION GUIDANCE,
WHICH HAS VERIFIED THE BEST THUS FAR, BARELY GETS REEDY POINT TO
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY.
THE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE.
THE WORST OF THE FLOODING (WIDESPREAD MODERATE) WILL CONTINUE OVER
CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ AND EASTERN DE, PARTICULARLY IN THE BACK BAYS AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS NOT ALLOWED THE WATER THAT MADE IT IN THERE
DURING PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES TO DRAIN. WE`LL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IN SOME OF
THESE VULNERABLE BACK BAYS.
ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE FROM ATLANTIC COUNTY NORTHWARD, COASTAL
FLOODING ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE UPPER END OF MINOR. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UP AS ONCE AGAIN THE BACK BAYS
WILL BE AT RISK TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY. WATER LEVELS DID NOT INCREASE AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THE NEWEST TIDAL GUIDANCE, WHICH TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE
PREVIOUS BIAS, NO LONGER FORECAST ADVISORY LEVEL FLOODING THRU THE
WEEKEND.
THE THREAT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS TO END BY MONDAY,
THOUGH MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
419 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY, KEEPING A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN
TAKES IT CLOSE TO BERMUDA, AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY AND
MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THRU OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE PASS BY
TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND
INCLUDES A STRONGER, BROADER BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE
THERMAL`S WERE SPLIT BETWEEN THE NAM AT 850MB AND GFS AT 925MB.
THE RUNNING THEME CONTINUES WITH THE DP/DT BEING A SLOWER EVOLUTION
OF THE OVERALL PATTERN.
WE WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING. WINDS
ARE VERY SLOWLY DECREASING AND WHILE IT WILL REMAIN WINDY, WE SHOULD
STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA TODAY. CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
OTHERWISE, MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWS THE
MESOSCALE HRRR AND HI RES ARW THE CLOSEST AS THEY ARE MATCHING THE
ONGOING DRIZZLE OBS THE CLOSEST. ITS MENTION IS MAINLY FROM THE
I95 CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WE HAVE MADE THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON DRY BEFORE STARTING TO BRING BACK CHANCES LATE AS ANOTHER
SLUG OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE OUR WAY. ANY
CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE POCONOS. WE
WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE DAY PEAKS THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
RELAXATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, BETTER MIXING
THOUGH KEEPS GUSTS RELATIVELY THE SAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WE BRING BACK CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
IN INTERIOR AREAS, WE SHOULD FINALLY START SEEING A RELAXATION IN
THE WINDS, ALTHOUGH GUSTINESS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE FETCH FOR MOST OF OUR CWA IS
STILL FROM THE OCEAN. SO OTHER THAN THE POCONOS, NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT
MUCH CLEARING IN OUR CWA. WE WENT WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE,
CLOUDIER GUIDANCE AND OUR MIN TEMPS ARE TOWARD THE HIGHER RANGE OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
A PERIOD OF TRANSITION IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AS REX BLOCK OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THIS OCCURS, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY. A
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US /THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BLOCK WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IN THE MONDAY-
TUESDAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THE GUSTINESS SHOULD LARGELY ABATE
BY TUESDAY. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AOB AVERAGE ON MONDAY, AND
AOA AVERAGE THEREAFTER.
DETAILS...
MONDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ALOFT AS THE REGION
WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL BETWEEN SYSTEMS, AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CONFLUENT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL MOVING
OFFSHORE JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE,
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE COLUMN, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
OF I-95, WHERE THE MARITIME INFLUENCE DECREASES. THUS, EXPECT
A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST. ALONG
THE COAST, NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED IN
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT, THE AREA
WILL LARGELY BE WITHIN THE CONFLUENT REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THEREFORE, MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE PRECIP, EVEN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT/AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE MODELS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT TO THIS POINT WITH TIMING THIS FEATURE
LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANGE,
THIS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
06Z TAFS CONTINUE WINDY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
REST OF OVERNIGHT...CIGS MAINLY BETWEEN 1000-2000FT, SOME IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. WHILE SOME NON VSBY RESTRICTING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS, WE JUST CARRIED IT AT KACY
AND KMIV WITHE SOME UP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.
THIS MORNING...A HIGHER MVFR CIG IS PREDICTED WITH NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD MIX A BIT MORE AND WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS INLAND AIRPORTS/TERMINALS.
THIS AFTERNOON...FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS CIGS BECOMING VFR.
ELSEWHERE WE ARE MAINTAINING A HIGHER MVFR CIG. WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED SIMILAR TO THE MORNING.
SUNDAY EVENING...CIGS REMAINING MVFR AT KMIV AND KACY WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KTS.
ELSEWHERE WE WILL FORECAST A VFR CIG, BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FAR
NORTHWEST. WE KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BUT
DROP THE GUSTS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST OCCURRING IS
FOR NORTHERN AIRPORTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
AT KACY AND KMIV OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS AT ACY AND MIV
COULD GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TREND OF DECREASING THE WINDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. WE KEPT THE SAME
EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AS THEY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT FIRST.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS,
EXCLUDING DELAWARE BAY THRU 12Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE FROM GALE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
TIME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA FIVE FEET
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
820 PM UPDATE TO CANCEL THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DELAWARE
RIVER AND THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY (NEW CASTLE COUNTY, DE AND SALEM
COUNTY, NJ) AND REPLACE IT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THRU
SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH THE ETSS AND DBOFS TIDAL PREDICTION CAME IN
BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND ONE FOOT TOO HIGH WITH THIS PAST HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING. THIS GUIDANCE HAS ALSO VERIFIED TOO
HIGH WITH PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE ETSS AND OFS GUIDANCE MAY HAVE PARTIALLY TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
THE BIAS AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER FOR THE EARLY MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY BUT LIKELY ARE STILL TOO
HIGH. THE OFS PREDICTION KEEPS REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA BELOW
MODERATE STAGE FOR BOTH HIGH TIDES TOMORROW WHILE THE ETSS
PREDICTION IS RIGHT AT MODERATE. THE IN-HOUSE REGRESSION GUIDANCE,
WHICH HAS VERIFIED THE BEST THUS FAR, BARELY GETS REEDY POINT TO
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY.
THE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE.
THE WORST OF THE FLOODING (WIDESPREAD MODERATE) WILL CONTINUE OVER
CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ AND EASTERN DE, PARTICULARLY IN THE BACK BAYS AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS NOT ALLOWED THE WATER THAT MADE IT IN THERE
DURING PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES TO DRAIN. WE`LL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IN SOME OF
THESE VULNERABLE BACK BAYS.
ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE FROM ATLANTIC COUNTY NORTHWARD, COASTAL
FLOODING ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE UPPER END OF MINOR. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UP AS ONCE AGAIN THE BACK BAYS
WILL BE AT RISK TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY. WATER LEVELS DID NOT INCREASE AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THE NEWEST TIDAL GUIDANCE, WHICH TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE
PREVIOUS BIAS, NO LONGER FORECAST ADVISORY LEVEL FLOODING THRU THE
WEEKEND.
THE THREAT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS TO END BY MONDAY,
THOUGH MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
132 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
OCCASIONAL RAIN IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA. SOME DRIZZLE MAY LINGER
NORTH OF ROUTE 30 SUNDAY MORNING... OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FINAL DAY OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER 50S BY DAWN
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
STRONG VEERING LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS ON KIWX VWP INDICATIVE OF WAA
AND ASSOCIATED UVM WHILE WATER VAPOR SHOWING SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE STREAMING NW FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GRTLKS. COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES WAS RESULTING IN BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS EVE. IN ADDITION A MORE SUBSTANTIAL BAND
OF RAIN EXTENDING ALONG AN INVERTED TROF FROM ERN KY NORTH TO
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE IS FCST BY LATEST HRRR TO MOVE WEST INTO OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT. THUS... HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT. WAA OF NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT BUT HAD TO KNOCK DOWN LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON TEMPS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD THIS EVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
PERSISTENT UPGLIDE/MOISTURE ADVECTION ON I300K SURFACE LEADING TO
LOWERING CIGS E-W ACROSS CWA. CURRENTLY MARKEDLY STRONGER BAND OF
ISENT LIFT LIFTING NWWD INTO NWRN CWA AND WILL COVER WITH PRE-
FIRST PD. WITH TIME...FLOW ALONG ISENT SURFACE TO WANE OVERNIGHT
AS RIDGE CENTROID JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY FILLS AND SAGS SWD AND SC
COASTAL LOW/ASSOCD WITH SWRN GA MID LVL VORTEX WEAKENS AS CAT 4
JOAQUIN ACCELERATES NEWD...TRACKING SW-W OF BERMUDA SUNDAY PER
LATEST NHC FCST. POPS WANE TO SLIGHT CHC BY DAYBREAK. THOUGH HAVE
CONTD MENTION OF DZ POTENTIAL ACRS NORTHERN THIRD CWA SUNDAY AS
LIGHT UVM ASSOCD WITH I295K PRES GRADIENT/CROSS FLOW CURRENTLY
INTO MID OHIO VALLEY LIFTING NWWD. LIFT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN WELL
DEVELOPED DEEP SATURATED STRATUS LAYER PER PRIOR/WELL PERTURBED
BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVE/ERLY TONIGHT. NON DIURNAL WITH TEMPS NEAR
STEADY/SLOWLY RISING PER LOW LEVEL WAA THROUGH DAYBREAK. CONCERNED
THAT DEPTH/BREADTH OF STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TO LIMIT
AM INSOLATION AND SQUELCHED MAX TEMPS ON SUN SLIGHTLY...THOUGH NOT
AS COOL AS MET GUID. SUSPECT ONLY FAR SERN CWA TO BREAKOUT
SUFFICIENTLY TO REACH NEAR 70.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD UPSTREAM BEFORE A
BROAD UPPER TROF GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES LATE THIS WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS
AMPLIFYING TROF...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S. RAISED HIGHS A
LITTLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE
TO BETWEEN 10C AND 13C PER GFS. OTHERWISE...KEPT CHANCES FOR RAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
AGAIN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS
MOISTURE-LADEN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE
IS SHUNTED NORTHWEST. FILTERED INSOLATION AND WEAK DRY AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR TRANSITION TO VFR BY LATER TODAY THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IS LOW...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN. PUSHED
BACK TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT A BIT BASED ON LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE BUT UPSTREAM OBS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE
AND EARLIER IMPROVEMENT STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
304 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
TODAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPANDING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BETWEEN 3 AM AND MID MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST PREVALENT THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOST FOCUSED/WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. THE SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES HAVE TAKEN RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL MODELS
LIKE THE HRRR AND WRF THAT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
REMAINING SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...ELECTED TO KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AT LEAST FOR NOW. NO MAJOR FORECAST MODEL GIVES ANYONE
MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL AND THUS EXPECT RAIN
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO PERHAPS AROUND 0.10 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH AGAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE MID 60S OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
ZONES.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL JUST BE SITTING OUT OVER CALIFORNIA
AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN
SEEING A DRY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD MONDAY MORNING...SPECIFICALLY IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SETUP. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FLORIDA STATE LINE WILL FINALLY
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS
REMAINED IN PLACE FOR SOME TIME NOW...WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OFF FROM
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WHILE IT SPINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH REALLY NO AFFECT ON
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE LOW BECOMES MORE CUTOFF OVER TIME...VERY WEAK RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP DISTURBANCES THAT ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS FAR ENOUGH WEST BY THE EARLY WORKWEEK. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT IS A CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AS MODELS ARE REALLY BACKING OFF ON
PRECIPITATION REACHING THIS FAR EAST. SHOULD TIMING SPEED UP IN THE
SYSTEM...ITS POSSIBLE...BUT LOOKING LESS LIKELY.
THE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD
ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THE CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS TO DEEPEN. AT THE SURFACE...TWO AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...THE STANDARD FRONT RANGE
LOW...AND A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THE MAIN LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE PLAINS ACROSS TEXAS...WHILE THE TROUGH ENERGY WILL SWING NORTH
OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT RANGE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL ALSO PUSH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. NOW WHAT
DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN...MODELS ARE CERTAINLY SUGGESTING RAIN WILL BE
AROUND...ESPECIALLY AS THE ROCKIES LOW DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA...PROBABLY THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. BUT WITH THE
POSITION OF BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SPLITING NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE PLAINS...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS IS
LOW. IF THE FEATURES STRENGTHEN AND DEVELOP BEFORE REACHING THE
PLAINS...THEN CONFIDENCE IS BETTER...BUT IF NOT AS SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF...WE MIGHT SEE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HERE AND THERE AND
THATS IT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FAIRLY SEASONABLE IN THE 70S TO EVEN 80S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW DAYS. COLD FRONT IS LIKELY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BUT NOTHING DRASTIC
AS OF YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AS OF
1230 AM WERE FOCUSED WEST OF KGRI AND KEAR. HOWEVER...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT ARE TRACKING NORTH NORTHEAST COULD
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO KEAR AND THUS WILL CALL FOR A LEAST VICINITY
SHOWERS AT KEAR. FURTHER EAST SHOWERS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN BUT WE
COULD STILL CATCH A FEW AT LEAST NEAR BY SHOWERS EVEN IN KGRI AS
WE WORK CLOSER TO DAWN. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE BY
AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL REMAIN EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
VALID PERIOD AND MID CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
328 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARD NEW MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS IT DRAWS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH FROM OVER MEXICO.
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY DWINDLING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DIVING SOUTHWARD...WITH LIGHTNING IN THE
CORE OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AN INDICATION OF THE COLD
CORE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE.
AT THIS SAME TIME...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRAW NORTH
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH PWATS TRENDING UP. AT 00Z THE KABQ PWAT WAS
0.71"...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. 00Z MODEL
PWAT FORECASTS FOR KABQ SHOW MOISTURE PEAKING BETWEEN 12Z SUNDAY
AND 12Z MONDAY AROUND 0.85". SO WHILE MOISTURE TRENDS UP...
INSTABILITY IS TRENDING DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF DUE TO A
MUCH COOLER LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF...BUT DECENT SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF GARDEN VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS LIKELY. HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. LASTLY...AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN RATON...LAS VEGAS AND
RUIDOSO WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH TODAY DUE TO SUSTAINED UPSLOPE
FLOW AND CONTINUED RAIN-COOLING OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER.
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST MONDAY...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW...FORECAST TO BE OVER/NEAR LAS VEGAS NEVADA BY LATE DAY.
TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS
GO...WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVERTAKING THE
WESTERN HALF AND THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AZ. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A LOCK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25...WITH THE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WHERE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL RANGE FROM 40-50KTS. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS WILL FALL TO INCLUDE SOME OF OUR PEAKS ABOVE 11K FEET.
OTHERWISE...THE LOW WILL BE FILLING AS IT MOVES OVER AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
A WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THEN
TAKES A WESTWARD TURN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL AREAWIDE BY NEXT SUNDAY AT THE LATEST WITH RAIN CHANCES
DROPPING OUT OF THE FORECAST.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COOL AND WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO
INCLUDE WESTERN NM. A PERIOD OF HIGHER HUMIDITIES...THICK CLOUD
COVER...RAIN/STORMS...AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER CALIFORNIA IS DRAWING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM. WETTING RAINFALL...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM TODAY AND EXPAND
TO THE WEST TODAY SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.
EXPECT WAVES OF RAIN AND STORMS TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE STATE AGAIN
MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES
TO THE SE TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN. 5-DAY PRECIP TOTALS ON THE ORDER
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL AVERAGE 80 TO 100 PCT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH MIN VALUES HOVERING IN THE 40 TO 60 PCT RANGE. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOREST IN THE EAST WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
TEMPS MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH BENEATH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TRAVERSES THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SNOW ABOVE 11KFT. BEYOND THURSDAY...FORECAST MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO THE SE OF NM
THEN RETROGRADE WESTWARD BACK TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
REGARDLESS...THE SUMMER-LIKE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED FOR
THE REGION AND COOLER/MOIST FALL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MTS FREQUENTLY OBSCD FROM CONTDVD EWD. SW FLOW ALOFT OVER NM AS
STRONG UPPER LOW TRACKS TO NEAR KLAX BY 04/21Z. LOW LEVEL ELY
GRADIENT TO PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS NM WITH E-SELY
WND...GUSTY AT TIMES TO AROUND 30KT INTO THE RGV AND TO THE
CONTDVD. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AND RAIN FROM THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN EWD...WITH LCL TO AREAS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS
SPREADING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CONTDVD THROUGH 04/17Z. SHOWERS AND
ISOLD SHORT LIVED TSTMS STARTING TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL NM AT
04/05Z...AND HRRR INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND INTO NE NM BY 04/12Z. AFT 04/15Z...BEST
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE RGV...WHERE TSTMS
SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 77 53 73 49 / 20 40 60 60
DULCE........................... 69 45 67 45 / 40 50 60 70
CUBA............................ 68 48 66 47 / 30 30 40 60
GALLUP.......................... 74 48 70 45 / 20 30 70 60
EL MORRO........................ 71 46 66 43 / 40 70 70 70
GRANTS.......................... 72 48 69 44 / 50 60 60 60
QUEMADO......................... 68 51 66 47 / 30 50 70 50
GLENWOOD........................ 71 52 67 49 / 40 70 70 60
CHAMA........................... 67 44 65 44 / 40 40 50 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 49 66 49 / 60 40 40 70
PECOS........................... 61 48 62 47 / 70 60 40 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 69 46 69 46 / 50 20 30 30
RED RIVER....................... 61 42 59 42 / 60 30 40 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 63 39 63 39 / 60 30 50 30
TAOS............................ 67 44 68 43 / 30 20 30 30
MORA............................ 62 45 63 45 / 60 30 40 20
ESPANOLA........................ 66 47 71 46 / 40 20 30 60
SANTA FE........................ 63 49 66 49 / 60 30 30 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 64 47 67 47 / 60 30 30 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 54 69 54 / 60 40 30 70
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 55 70 55 / 50 30 20 60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 72 53 73 52 / 50 30 20 60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 71 55 72 54 / 50 30 20 60
LOS LUNAS....................... 73 55 73 53 / 60 40 20 70
RIO RANCHO...................... 71 55 71 54 / 50 30 30 70
SOCORRO......................... 74 56 74 54 / 60 60 20 60
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 50 64 51 / 70 50 30 70
TIJERAS......................... 62 49 66 50 / 60 40 30 70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 59 43 67 45 / 30 40 20 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 44 61 44 / 40 40 20 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 62 48 69 49 / 60 50 20 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 66 52 72 52 / 70 50 20 40
RUIDOSO......................... 57 45 61 49 / 80 70 30 40
CAPULIN......................... 60 47 65 47 / 30 20 20 5
RATON........................... 63 44 68 44 / 30 20 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 62 45 69 45 / 30 20 20 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 42 61 43 / 40 30 30 10
CLAYTON......................... 59 49 68 50 / 30 20 10 5
ROY............................. 55 47 59 47 / 30 30 20 10
CONCHAS......................... 62 51 66 51 / 50 30 20 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 50 65 50 / 40 30 20 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 60 50 66 51 / 60 40 20 5
CLOVIS.......................... 59 50 62 51 / 80 40 20 5
PORTALES........................ 61 52 63 50 / 80 40 20 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 61 52 64 51 / 60 40 20 5
ROSWELL......................... 61 53 64 54 / 70 50 20 10
PICACHO......................... 60 52 64 51 / 70 60 30 30
ELK............................. 58 50 60 49 / 70 70 40 40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MTS FREQUENTLY OBSCD FROM CONTDVD EWD. SW FLOW ALOFT OVER NM AS
STRONG UPPER LOW TRACKS TO NEAR KLAX BY 04/21Z. LOW LEVEL ELY
GRADIENT TO PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS NM WITH E-SELY
WND...GUSTY AT TIMES TO AROUND 30KT INTO THE RGV AND TO THE
CONTDVD. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AND RAIN FROM THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN EWD...WITH LCL TO AREAS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS
SPREADING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CONTDVD THROUGH 04/17Z. SHOWERS AND
ISOLD SHORT LIVED TSTMS STARTING TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL NM AT
04/05Z...AND HRRR INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND INTO NE NM BY 04/12Z. AFT 04/15Z...BEST
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE RGV...WHERE TSTMS
SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...849 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015...
.UPDATE...
WINDS WERE INCREASED IN THE ABQ METRO AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW THAT HAS KEPT WINDS HIGH. THESE SHOULD
DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WAS ALSO INCREASED INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE HIGH POPS WERE RETAINED OVERNIGHT.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW HELPING FUEL TODAYS CROP OF STORMS.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE INTO CA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
BEFORE TURNING E EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL BE DRAWN N EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING CONCERNS FOR FLASH
FLOODING. IMPACTS FROM THE STORM MAY LINGER THROUGH ALL OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY ACTIVE DAY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM WITH SHOWERS AND A
DECENT CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN
MARGINALLY SEVERE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
NIGHT.
WEST COAST STORM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND DIVE S INTO
CA THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT TO THE W SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WEST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH NO ONE LOCATION CAN BE RULED OUT OF
GETTING A SHOWER. FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL INCREASE AS WE
GO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE UNUSUALLY
DEEP STORM WILL TURN NE TOWARD LAS VEGAS NV THEN TURN SE INTO
AZ THEN NM BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO THIS POINT.
GFS SLOWLY MOVES THE LOW TO THE SE WHILE THE EUROPEAN DROPS IT
S THEN ACTUALLY RETROGRESSES THE LOW TO THE W...ALL THE WAY TO
THE PACIFIC. WILL GO WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEATHER FOR LATE
IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. CHJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COOL AND WET PATTERN HAS SETTLED INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM TODAY
AND THIS WILL EXPAND WEST INTO WESTERN NM SUNDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF HIGHER HUMIDITIES...THICK CLOUD COVER...RAIN/STORMS...AND BELOW
NORMAL MAX TEMPS IS IN STORE THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL FORCE A DEEP TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM. THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAINFALL...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL BE OVER
EASTERN NM THRU TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY
AND LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL. EXPECT WAVES OF RAIN
AND STORMS TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE STATE AGAIN MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES TO THE SE TOWARD THE
PERMIAN BASIN. 5-DAY PRECIP TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL AVERAGE 80 TO 100 PCT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH MIN VALUES HOVERING IN THE 40 TO 60 PCT RANGE. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOREST IN THE EAST WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
TEMPS MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH BENEATH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TRAVERSES THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SNOW ABOVE 11KFT. BEYOND THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO THE SE
OF NM AND/OR RETROGRADE WESTWARD BACK TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
EITHER WAY...AN END TO THE SUMMER-LIKE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS HAS
ENDED FOR THE REGION AND COOLER/MOIST FALL WEATHER IS HERE TO
STAY.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
122 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LIFE THREATENING FLOODING MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
PERSISTENT TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FLUNG INTO THE CAROLINAS BY A
POWERFUL UPPER LOW. A DRYING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY.
RIVER FLOODING WILL WORSEN IN THE UPCOMING NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD LIKE TO
EMPHASIZE THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE UPCOMING FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IN
SOME CASES...IT MAY BE UNPRECEDENTED IN THIS AREA SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN. THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED OR IN MANY AREAS FLOODED
FROM WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS...IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND OVER A FOOT IN A FEW SPOTS...IN THE LAST 24 TO 36
HOURS. THERE HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTS OF A FEW SINKHOLES ACROSS
THE AREA.
THE ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN MAY
CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ON A LARGE SCALE.
ROADS...BRIDGES AND STRUCTURES WILL ALL BE VULNERABLE TO FLASH
FLOODING. LOW-LYING AREAS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS
LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. INFRASTRUCTURE THAT NORMALLY
CONTROLS THE FLOW OF WATER SUCH AS DAMS...LEVEES AND CULVERTS MAY
FAIL DUE TO THE HIGH AND STRONG FORCES OF RISING WATER.
BE SURE ALL STORM DRAINS ARE FREE OF DEBRIS...THIS MAY HELP TO
DIMINISH THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY FLOODS IN YOUR COMMUNITY. WE ARE
EXPECTING MANY ROADS WILL BECOME UNSAFE FOR TRAVEL. IN
ADDITION...OBEY ALL ROAD CLOSURE AND DETOUR SIGNS...THEY HAVE
BEEN POSTED FOR YOUR SAFETY. DO NOT CROSS ANY ROADWAY THAT IS
COVERED BY FLOWING WATER...IT MAY BE UNSAFE FOR TRAVEL.IF YOU DO
NOT NEED TO TRAVEL...STAY OFF THE ROADS. IF YOU LIVE NEAR STREAMS
OR RETENTION PONDS...YOU MAY WANT TO CONSIDER A SAFER PLACE TO
RETREAT SHOULD YOU NEED TO EVACUATE DUE TO RISING WATER. REMEMBER
NIGHTTIME FLOODING IS ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS SINCE YOU WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO SEE THE RAPIDITY OF THE WATER RISE.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WAS HELPING TO
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER N. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAY BE
EXTENDED INTO MONDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH
AND THIS COUPLED WITH SATURATED TO FLOODED GROUND WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN SOME TREES AND POWER LINES. THE RISK WILL
INCREASE AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO BE
SPOTTY...BUT STILL HEAVY IN PLACES. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAIN...COINCIDING WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...HAS SHIFTED JUST O
THE S AND W OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN THIS EVE. THIS MODEL IS CONFIRMING OUR PREVIOUS
THINKING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN BEGINNING TO MAKE A SHIFT BACK
TO THE N OVERNIGHT. WILL SHOW THIS TREND IN OUR GRIDDED FORECAST
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND THE HIGHEST QPF RETURNING TO THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE GRAND STRAND LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HISTORIC AND LIFE THREATENING FLOODING
EXPECTED.
DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LOW/COLD POOL CREATING A VERY FOCUSED AND INTENSE
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIGHT NOW THE
EXTREME RAINS ARE SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. EVEN IN ITS
FORMATIVE STAGES LAST EVENING THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER LEAD TO SOME
TERRIFYING RAINFALL RATES AND SERIOUS FLOODING MOST NOTABLY IN
LITTLE RIVER/NORTH MYRTLE BEACH AREA AS WELL AS PARTS OF DARLINGTON
COUNTY. REFER TO PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT/PNSILM FOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS WELL AS LOCAL STORM REPORTS/LSRILM FOR FLOODING INFO.
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THIS CHANNEL THE LOCAL RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN
IMPRESSIVE. DURING THE HOUR OF 17Z KILM REPORTED 0.31" OF RAIN IN
16 MINUTES. SUCH RAINFALL RATES ARE OFTEN VASTLY UNDERDONE IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. AND SPEAKING OF MODEL UNCERTAINTIES GUIDANCE ALSO OFTEN
STRUGGLES WITH HANDLING OF SYSTEMS THAT ARE SO DEEPLY CUT OFF FROM
STEERING FLOW. THAT SAID THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
OF THE HEAVIEST QPF BUT THIS WILL REALLY ONLY MANIFEST AS A SLIGHT
REDUCTION OVER FAR NW ZONES (THOUGH THE WRF BEGS TO DIFFER). IT IS
IN THESE ZONES WHERE THE LOWER PORTION OF "ONLY" 3-5 INCHES MAY
FALL. HOWEVER THE VERY NARROW AND FOCUSED NATURE OF THE RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO A STRONG GRADIENT IN QPF AS ONE HEADS INLAND.
AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD THIS LOW LEVEL FIRE HOSE OF
MOISTURE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE LOW...MOVING NORTHWARD AND ALSO
TAKING ON AN EVENTUAL NE TO SW ORIENTATION...ALL WHILE MAINTAINING A
CONNECTION WITH JOAQUIN. IN ADDITION TO THE SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE OVERALL SENSE OF TIMING, WHICH IS
USUALLY A GOOD CALL WITH CUTOFF LOWS. IN FACT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE END OF THE EVENT, WHICH WILL BE IN THE CAPE
FEAR/WILMINGTON AREAS LAST INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
GENERAL FORECAST QPF CALLS FOR 3-5" ACROSS MOST OF NW AND NORTHERN
SC COUNTIES BUT 5-7" CAPE FEAR COAST DUE LONG PERIOD OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE ADDITIONAL 5-7" AND LIKELY 7-10" SRN GTOWN AND
WILLIAMSBURG LIKELY. THESE AMOUNTS CAN EASILY BEEN A MONTH`S WORTH
MOST TIMES OF THE YEAR IN AND OF THEMSELVES BUT FOLLOWING THE MAJOR
FLOODING ISSUES FROM YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL THE 3 DAY TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
SCENARIO. THIS WILL HOLD MOST TRUE WHERE MESOSCALE PROCESSES (WHICH
CANNOT BE RESOLVED THIS FAR OUT) LEAD TO THE LOCALIZED MUCH HIGHER
RAIN TOTALS AS OCCURRED IN PLACES LIKE LITTLE RIVER LAST EVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE
OVERALL GREATLY IMPROVED AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THE LONG TERM. A DEEP DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE UPPER
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF OUR WET WEATHER EJECTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL MODERATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES HOLD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD.
EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KTS OR HIGHER...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE...THUS WARRANTING A WIND ADVISORY.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE
AN PUSH INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
MIXTURE OF RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT...INCLUDING VFR...MVFR...AND IFR. AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASE AND THE AXIS OF RAINFALL PUSHES EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE A DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS
TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/TEMPO IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS...PATCHY FOG...AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...SHOWERS WILL SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH DETERIORATED
CONDITIONS CONTINUING...DUE MAINLY TO LOW CIGS AND ANY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...WITH MVFR/TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY WITH CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 120 AM SUNDAY...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS WHILE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN WITH
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WE HAVE
INCREASED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS TO 25 TO 30 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE EASTERLY. A STRONG AND PERSISTENT 9 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY
SWELL IN COMBINATION WITH THE WINDS WILL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
7 TO 11 FT RANGE AND AS HIGH AS 12 OR 13 FT NEAR FRYING PAN
SHOALS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A STRONG GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ON
SUNDAY BETWEEN A HUGE HIGH NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND STATES AND THE
WELL OFFSHORE JOAQUIN AS WELL AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ONLY VERY
SLOWLY DEVELOPING JUST OFF SC/GA COASTLINES. BY MONDAY JOAQUIN
WILL BE ACCELERATING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST BUT THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH IS RELATIVELY MAINTAINED AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW DRIVING
THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW TO EXIT. SEAS FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
CONTINUITY, SWAN, AND WNA GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...WE
EXPECT DECREASING WINDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO LESS
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1100 PM SATURDAY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE OVERNIGHT TIDE AT ALL THE BEACHES AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER. HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 1 AM AT THE BEACHES AND
3 AM IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING WITH
WATER RUNNING WELL UP ONTO THE BEACHES AND RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
BEACH EROSION.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
032-033-039-053>056.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ054-056.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
105>110.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...REK
AVIATION...SGL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
335 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY INTO MONDAY AND
TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS INITIALIZING SOME
LIGHT QPF TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF US THIS MORNING...SO WILL
FOLLOW.
FOR TODAY...THE HRRR INDICATES THAT SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT SOME AREAS COULD GET A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO WILL GO WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. PWATS
WILL APPROACH 1 INCH LATER TODAY IN THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE S/SE AND IT SHOULD BE BREEZY IN THE VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS
AROUND.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A
SFC BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION...SO WILL MENTION SOME LOW POPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE FAR NORTH...ALTHOUGH RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN NW
MN...OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRYING COLUMN AND SUNSHINE DEVELOPING WITH
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S WITH FAVORABLE WEST WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID 30S NORTH AND AROUND 40 SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AT LEAST IN THE NORTH AND WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
POTENTIAL.
ON TUESDAY...IT WILL BE DRY AND A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO WESTERN MN.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES AT TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH AN OVERALL WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORT
WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND 500MB RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WARMER TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
VFR CIGS OVER EASTERN ND WITH HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE VALLEY ON EAST.
SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE SUNDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
252 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES WITH MOISTURE DECREASING OVER
THE WEEKEND. REMAINS DRY MOST OF THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SHIFTING SOUTH
OF THE AREA TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT UNDER EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT POCKETS OF CLEARING WITH FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES A TAD HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID 50S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL STAY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US
WILL MOVE OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WARMED TEMPERATURES A BIT...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. COULD GET
A LITTLE 500MB RIPPLE WITH SOME CLOUDS...BUT HAVE NO PRECIP
MENTIONED THROUGH MID WEEK. SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...DRIVING COLD FRONT THROUGH CWA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
BLENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AREAS OF CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WV.
MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...KEEPING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
DESPITE OF AREAS OF CLEARING...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE NAM
AND RAP ARE RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE
ENOUGH VENTILATION TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPING AT MOST PLACES.
EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR UNDER DENSE FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER AREAS WHERE THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES OVERNIGHT.
WILL SEE IMPROVING CIG AND VISBY VALUES BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AS
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS COULD VARY FROM
FORECAST. FOG MAY BE MORE PREVALENT IF CLEARING OCCURS AND
GRADIENTS RELAX.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/04/15
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H M H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
SOME IFR IN LOW STRATUS CEILINGS COULD LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRYING TREND CONTINUES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
231 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES WITH MOISTURE DECREASING OVER
THE WEEKEND. REMAINS DRY MOST OF THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM AS
ATMOSPHERE OVER UNDERGOING A MODEST DRYING TREND OVER THE CWA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAINLY DUE TO EXITING MOISTURE PLUME AND
ENHANCEMENT OF DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW. LOWERED POPS AND ADJUSTED
TEMP AND DEWPOINT FIELDS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEST CLEARING
TREND. EAST FACING SLOPES IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT LEAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US
WILL MOVE OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WARMED TEMPERATURES A BIT...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. COULD GET
A LITTLE 500MB RIPPLE WITH SOME CLOUDS...BUT HAVE NO PRECIP
MENTIONED THROUGH MID WEEK. SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...DRIVING COLD FRONT THROUGH CWA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
BLENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AREAS OF CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WV.
MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...KEEPING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
DESPITE OF AREAS OF CLEARING...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE NAM
AND RAP ARE RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE
ENOUGH VENTILATION TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPING AT MOST PLACES.
EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR UNDER DENSE FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER AREAS WHERE THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES OVERNIGHT.
WILL SEE IMPROVING CIG AND VISBY VALUES BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AS
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS COULD VARY FROM
FORECAST. FOG MAY BE MORE PREVALENT IF CLEARING OCCURS AND
GRADIENTS RELAX.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/04/15
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L L M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L L L L H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
SOME IFR IN LOW STRATUS CEILINGS COULD LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRYING TREND CONTINUES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
123 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES WITH MOISTURE DECREASING OVER
THE WEEKEND. REMAINS DRY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM AS
ATMOSPHERE OVER UNDERGOING A MODEST DRYING TREND OVER THE CWA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAINLY DUE TO EXITING MOISTURE PLUME AND
ENHANCEMENT OF DOWNSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW. LOWERED POPS AND ADJUSTED
TEMP AND DEWPOINT FIELDS OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEST CLEARING
TREND. EAST FACING SLOPES IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT LEAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SE CONUS GRADUALLY FILLS
AND ABSORBS BACK INTO THE OVERALL 500MB PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE THEN DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH THINGS CONTINUING TO DRY OUT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LOWS A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER LINGERING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. COULD GET
A LITTLE 500MB RIPPLE WITH SOME CLOUDS...BUT HAVE NO PRECIP
MENTIONED THROUGH MID WEEK. SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...DRIVING COLD FRONT THROUGH CWA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
BLENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AREAS OF CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WV.
MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...KEEPING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
DESPITE OF AREAS OF CLEARING...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE NAM
AND RAP ARE RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE
ENOUGH VENTILATION TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPING AT MOST PLACES.
EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF PERIODS OF
IFR UNDER DENSE FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER AREAS WHERE THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES OVERNIGHT.
WILL SEE IMPROVING CIG AND VISBY VALUES BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AS
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS COULD VARY FROM
FORECAST. FOG MAY BE MORE PREVALENT IF CLEARING OCCURS AND
GRADIENTS RELAX.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/04/15
UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L L M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M L L L L L L L H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
SOME IFR IN LOW STRATUS CEILINGS COULD LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRYING TREND CONTINUES NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/JW
NEAR TERM...KMC/ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1149 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
EARLIER LIGHT RAIN THAT AFFECTED AREA AIRPORTS HAS
DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR CSV WHERE
VCSH WILL BE MENTIONED OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT IFR TO LIFR
CIGS AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH 15-16Z WITH IFR VIS ALSO AT CSV.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
6-11KTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS YET ANOTHER RAIN BLOB...WHICH IS A
VERY SCIENTIFIC METEOROLOGICAL TERM BY THE WAY...SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUNS...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE PLATEAU. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS UPWARD FOR THIS EVENING ACCORDINGLY WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN
PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH MAV AND MET MOS INDICATE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE INCORPORATED THIS INTO GRIDS/ZONES. REST OF
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
OF NOTE...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AS GFS IS NEARLY
30 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 80S. THIS IS
APPARENTLY DUE TO SOME PRONOUNCED 5-7 DEGREE WARMING OF 850MB
TEMPS. IN CONTRAST...THE NAM STRUGGLES TO WARM US INTO THE 70S ON
SUNDAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER STILL ANTICIPATED
TOMORROW...GFS SEEMS OUT TO LUNCH BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD
COMPROMISE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS YET ANOTHER RAIN BLOB...WHICH IS A
VERY SCIENTIFIC METEOROLOGICAL TERM BY THE WAY...SPREADING
WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUNS...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE CWA...WITH ACTIVITY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE PLATEAU. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR THIS EVENING WITH A DOWNWARD
TREND IN PRECIP CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH MAV AND MET MOS
INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THIS EVENING THEN SLOWLY
RISE OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE INCORPORATE THIS INTO GRIDS/ZONES. REST
OF FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
OF NOTE...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE TRICKY AS GFS IS NEARLY
30 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 80S. THIS IS
APPARENTLY DUE TO SOME PRONOUNCED 5-7 DEGREE WARMING OF 850MB
TEMPS. IN CONTRAST...THE NAM STRUGGLES TO WARM US INTO THE 70S ON
SUNDAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER STILL ANTICIPATED ON
SUNDAY...GFS SEEMS OUT TO LUNCH...BUT CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD
COMPROMISE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE IN TERMS OF THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THAT UPPER
LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SW GA AND THOUGH THE POSITION OF THE
LOW WONT MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE TROUGH AXIS
ORIENTATION WILL. IN FACT...IT WILL GO FROM A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
NW- SE TILT...TO A W-E CONFIGURATION BY SUNDAY MORNING. WE ALREADY
SEE MILDER TEMPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN TN AND WESTERN NC. THIS WARMER
AREA WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY BUT I CANNOT JUSTIFY THE AGGRESSIVE
WARMUP THAT THE GFS ELUDES TOWARD. SO...FOR TEMPS I WILL GO WITH A
GFS AND NAM BLEND. THE GFS LOOKS WAY TO WARM ON SUNDAY DESPITE THE
HEIGHT RISES. CLOUDS SHOULD STILL BE HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ON SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO
RUN TOO WARM ON HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AS WELL.
FOR PRECIP...WE DEFINITELY BE TRANSITIONING FROM A WEAK DEFORMATION
AREA TO MORE OF A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT SETUP. FROM EAST TO WEST.
THEREFORE...WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND TRAIL
THAT OFF TO 40 POPS FAR WEST. MAY NEED TO GO A LITTLE HIGHER AS
THE4PM ISSUANCE APPROACHES. OTW...1/2 TO 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE COMMONPLACE ALONG THE PLATEAU FOR TONIGHT...A QUARTER INCH
CENTRAL AREAS AND A TENTH FAR WEST.
LOWER POPS FOR TOMORROW AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE
MID STATE AND THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE MORE PROGRESSIVELY TOWARD
THE EAST. PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL RETURN BY MONDAY.
IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER RIDGING TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR TUES
THROUGH THU. THE EURO MODEL FLATTENS THE RIDGE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN
THE GFS. WILL THEREFORE BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE EXT...ON SAT...MODELS ON BOARD WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. WILL UP POPS AT THAT POINT TO THE 30 PERCENT
AREA. TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 55 76 59 80 / 80 30 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 53 76 57 80 / 50 20 10 0
CROSSVILLE 56 73 56 74 / 100 30 20 10
COLUMBIA 53 75 57 80 / 80 30 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 53 74 58 79 / 70 30 10 10
WAVERLY 53 75 57 80 / 40 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
258 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THE UA RIDGE HAS EXITED THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UA
LOW TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS NRN CALI. THIS UA LOW WILL NOT ONLY
PROMOTE THE SHARPENING OF THE SW FLOW ALOFT /WHICH IS AIDING IN
STREAMING PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN NEARBY SFC LEE
TROUGHING AND LOWERED 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS. LOOKING AT THE SFC...A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME IS KEEPING PWATS AOA 1.00 INCH ACROSS
THE CWA...WHILST A 15-25 KT LLJ CRANKS AWAY THIS MORNING THUS
RESULTING IN ADEQUATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. IT IS THEREFORE NOT
SURPRISING TO SEE AN ONGOING BATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM ERN NM TO ACROSS THE WEST SOUTH
PLAINS...AND NE TO ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE...LEAVING PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES DRY PER 07Z RADAR ANALYSIS. THE TTU
MESONET REPORTED A FEW CITIES RECEIVING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT SINCE THIS SWATH OF
RAINFALL HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES SINCE LAST
NIGHT...TOTALS OF A HALF-INCH UP TO AROUND 1.00 INCH OR SO IS MORE
REPRESENTATIVE. MOTORIST ARE THEREFORE URGED TO APPROACH LOW-LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH CAUTION.
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
PRECIP SITUATION...AND AS SUCH SHOWS THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EWRD TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
ENDURE...WITH A NOTABLE LULL OCCURRING BY MID-MORNING. THIS LULL MAY
NOT LAST VERY LONG AS THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS HINT AT AN 80+ KT
250 MB JET MAX NEARING THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN AND
HENCE...PROVIDE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO RE-GENERATE STORMS MORE
SO FOR LOCALES ON THE CAPROCK /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER/.
THIS JET MAX WILL BE EXITING/WANING BY TONIGHT THOUGH LINGERING
STORMS ARE SHOWN TO OCCUR NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. IT IS INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING EWRD TO PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY PICKING UP ON A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE
SAID AREA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD /LOWER 40 DEWPOINTS
VERSUS UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S/. THIS CAN BE SEEN NOT ONLY VIA THE
METARS AND THEIR 07Z REPORTED DEWPOINTS BUT ALSO PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING MOIST MID-HIGH LEVELS BUT DRIER LOW LEVELS.
WILL THEREFORE SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WRN ZONES WITH NIL POPS
ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES. GUIDANCE TEMPS RUNNING A BIT TOO WARM AS
WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY WHERE MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLED TO SURPASS THE
60S. WILL THEREFORE GO BELOW GUIDANCE AND SHOW HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR
ALL BUT THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS /70S/...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S.
.LONG TERM...
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER
THE SRN PLAINS AS A RESULT OF MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
FLOW OVER THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER
SRN CALIF. BRIEF PERIOD OF NO PRECIP TO LAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD WRN
NEW MEXICO. BEST LIFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FROM ERN ARIZONA TO THE BIG BEND. LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD REMAIN ON TRACK. BEYOND THURSDAY MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE GFS SHEARING THE UPPER LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS BUT NOT UNTIL A MATURE DEFORMATION SETS UP OVER THE FCST
AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THE TROUGH SPLITTING WITH SOME ENERGY
EJECTING QUICKLY EWD AND SOME MOVING SW THEN WEST AND CLOSING OFF
AGAIN UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS LATTER
PART IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS THE UPPER LOW...
MOVING IT FROM THE BIG BEND WWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO. GFS HAS BEEN
PLAYING CATCH-UP THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...IF NOT BY FRIDAY...AT LEAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP PREDOMINANT. EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE MIDDLE DAY
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...IE TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 47 65 50 / 70 20 20 10
TULIA 61 48 66 50 / 50 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 61 49 66 51 / 40 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 65 51 64 52 / 50 30 30 10
LUBBOCK 67 52 65 52 / 40 30 30 10
DENVER CITY 68 52 66 54 / 60 40 30 10
BROWNFIELD 69 53 66 53 / 50 30 30 10
CHILDRESS 69 54 71 56 / 10 10 20 0
SPUR 71 54 68 54 / 10 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 77 57 73 55 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURES.
WILL FOLLOW THE RAP 0.5 TO 1.0 KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT...WHICH
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS BETTER THAN MOST
OTHER MODELS.
IN SHORT...TODAY WILL BE MUCH CLOUDIER THAN MOST OF LAST WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN. HOWEVER...AN EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF IN SOME FORM AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TO THE WEST...CIRRUS ARE STREAMING
NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL STAY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT. DESPITE WARMER
925 HPA TEMPERATURES TODAY...THESE CLOUDS WILL NO DOUBT PUT A DENT
IN THE POTENTIAL WARM-UP...NOT TO MENTION MIXING WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS WEAK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THINK HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE 60 DEGREE
MARK...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER.
LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S WITH NO FROST ISSUES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY RESULTING IN VERY
WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND AGAIN LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE.
DESPITE 925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM +10 TO +12 CELSIUS...WILL CAP
MONDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT THIS MAY STILL BE TOO
WARM.
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS...COMBINED WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID
TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BREAK THE
70 DEGREE MARK MOST PLACES. WEDNESDAY NOW APPEARS MOSTLY DRY AS A
PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE RIVER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY
AS MODEST FORCING INTERACTS WITH INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDER ON THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
GOOD WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE BETWEEN 400 TO 800 J/KG. MUCH OF
THURSDAY WILL STILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SO HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE NATION/S MID-SECTION BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
LOWER CLOUDS/MOISTURE...IN THE LOWER VFR AND HIGHER MVFR RANGE
ADVECTING RATHER QUICKLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FCST AREA AT 05Z.
DISTANCE-SPEED TOOL BRINGS THEM TO KLSE SHORTLY AFTER 06Z AND INTO
THE KRST AREA AT 08Z. ONCE THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS MAKES IT INTO THE
AREA...FLOW WEAKENS AND APPEARS THESE CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND AND BE
PROBLEMATIC MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS. DID REMAIN OPTIMISTIC FOR A
PERIOD OF WARMING/MIXING AND SCATTERING OF THIS CLOUD DECK AT THE
TAF SITES FOR THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. TRENDED 06Z TAF
SET TOWARD MORE VFR AND MVFR CIGS IN THE 2500-3500 FT RANGE THRU
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HRS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1231 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF LARAMIE COUNTY INCLUDING CHEYENNE.
VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN ONE
QUARTER AND ONE HALF MILE. LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY ENTERING
LARAMIE COUNTY FROM COLORADO...AND THIS MAY TEMPORARILY CAUSE
THE FOG TO LIFT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
NOW...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES FROM CHEYENNE TO
THE I-80 SUMMIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. NOT REALLY SEEING ANY UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCES THAT COULD KICK OFF SHOWERS...SO CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSAIC RADAR IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION UP IN RIVERTONS
AREA...JUST NORTH OF CARBON COUNTY THATS SHOWING A SLOW SOUTHEAST
PROGRESSION. HRRR SHOWING SOME CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND DRIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY WAIT
FOR THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
BEFORE PUBLISHING THE FORECAST.
EXPECTING A REPEAT TONIGHT FOR FOG/STRATUS. MAYBE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD COMBINE TO GIVE MOST OF US A
COLD/DAMP NIGHT. ALL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE
SURFACE...EVEN OUT BY RAWLINS. CONTINUED THE WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN ENDING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS
UP INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL THERE...BUT
MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO OVERNIGHT FOG MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM CHEYENNE TO WHEATLAND. TRENDED THE FORECAST
THAT WAY FOR MONDAY MORNING.
WESTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO +8C. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S AS THIS HAPPENS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER EASTERN UTAH...COMBINED WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
WYOMING COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY...LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH...SO NO MORE THAN ISOLATED
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...EVEN MORE DRYING OUT WITH NORTHWEST ALOFT ALOFT...THUS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES NORTHWEST WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...THOUGH WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.
SATURDAY...SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE TODAY. IFR CIGS WILL BE PREDOMINANT
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CIGS LIFTING SOMEWHAT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY MVFR. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE
VISIBILITIES WILL BE DOWN TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT TIMES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE STAY IN
A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS. WIDESPREAD FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ROTATING
AROUND A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
IF WE KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...COVERAGE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WITH US
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS. SO NO
ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZF
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA. EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
EARLY OCTOBER. DRIER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE LOW QUICKLY DIGS
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS AN INTERESTING LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THIS...CAPTURING THE DEW POINTS IN THE
50S SPREADING NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING NICELY (UP 4 TO 10 DEGREES
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO). SOME CU FIELDS ENHANCING A LITTLE FROM
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NORTHWARD THROUGH PIMA COUNTY...THE LATEST
HRRR AND 06Z UA WRF-NAM HINTING AT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF
TUCSON THIS MORNING. WE`LL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.
THE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO LOSE MUCH OF IT`S HIGHER LATITUDE
SUPPORT AS IT KICKS EASTWARD A LITTLE SLOWER MONDAY. WE`LL BE SEEING
AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STORM
ENHANCEMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE FILLING A BIT AS IT SAGS THROUGH THE STATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL KEEP A DECENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
IN EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO
WELL BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS SINCE MID MAY ON THURSDAY MORNING...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN
COOLEST EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S IN SOME
LOCATIONS AROUND PIMA COUNTY (THE ONLY THREAT FOR FREEZING WILL BE
ABOVE 10K FEET).
AFTER MOST OF THE ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE TRYING TO LEAVE SOME WEAK REMNANT SAGGY TROUGH
ENERGY SOMEWHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST MEXICO TO END THE
WEEK. THIS WOULD TEND TO SLOW ANY WARMING TREND FROM THE WEST COAST
RIDGE TRYING TO PHASE IN...AS WELL AS KEEPING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
IN THE PICTURE. LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP BUT NOT ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING SCT-BKN 6-10 KFT THIS MORNING. ISOLD -SHRA/TS
POSSIBLE NEAR ALL TERMINALS...INCREASING TO SCT -SHRA/TS COVERAGE BY
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS FROM KTUS EAST. SFC WINDS
GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS THROUGH 4/16Z...INCREASING TO 12-18 KTS WITH
GUSTS 20-25KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET...THOUGH KEEPING A SOUTHERLY INFLUENCE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK WEEK
AND AFTERNOON BREEZES PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/HUMPHREYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
944 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL EXTEND SOUTH OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
MONDAY, KEEPING A STATIONARY FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE, THE
FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES IT CLOSE TO BERMUDA,
AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY, MOVING NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE, FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THRU OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6PM THIS EVENING. WINDS
LOOK TO CONTINUE GUSTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT WE SHOULD
START TO SEE A DECREASING TREND AND WE EXPECT TO FALL BELOW
CRITERIA LATER TODAY.
OTHERWISE, MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWS THE
MESOSCALE HRRR AND HI RES ARW THE CLOSEST AS THEY ARE MATCHING THE
ONGOING DRIZZLE OBS THE BEST. ITS MENTION IS MAINLY FROM THE I95
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WE HAVE MADE THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
DRY BEFORE STARTING TO BRING BACK CHANCES LATE AS ANOTHER SLUG OF
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE OUR WAY. ANY
CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE POCONOS
AND OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS. WE WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS
CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE DAY PEAKS
THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT RELAXATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR, BETTER MIXING THOUGH KEEPS GUSTS RELATIVELY THE SAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WE BRING BACK CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
IN INTERIOR AREAS, WE SHOULD FINALLY START SEEING A RELAXATION IN
THE WINDS, ALTHOUGH GUSTINESS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE FETCH FOR MOST OF OUR CWA IS
STILL FROM THE OCEAN. SO OTHER THAN THE POCONOS, NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT
MUCH CLEARING IN OUR CWA. WE WENT WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE,
CLOUDIER GUIDANCE AND OUR MIN TEMPS ARE TOWARD THE HIGHER RANGE OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
A PERIOD OF TRANSITION IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AS REX BLOCK OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THIS OCCURS, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY. A
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US /THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BLOCK/ WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IN THE MONDAY-
TUESDAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THE GUSTINESS SHOULD LARGELY ABATE
BY TUESDAY. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AOB AVERAGE ON MONDAY, AND
AOA AVERAGE THEREAFTER.
DETAILS...
MONDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ALOFT AS THE REGION
WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL BETWEEN SYSTEMS, AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CONFLUENT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET,
MOVING OFFSHORE JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS RESULTS IN SUBSIDENCE
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE COLUMN, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
OF I-95, WHERE THE MARITIME INFLUENCE DECREASES. THUS, EXPECT
A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHERE
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED IN
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT, THE AREA
WILL LARGELY BE WITHIN THE CONFLUENT REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THEREFORE, MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE PRECIP, EVEN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT/AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT TIMING THIS FEATURE LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, GIVEN THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW,
THIS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS FOR 12Z TAFS, NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 06Z
VERSION.
THIS MORNING...A HIGHER MVFR CIG IS PREDICTED TO OCCUR GENERALLY
BETWEEN 2K AND 3K. EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KMIV AND KACY. SOME
DRIZZLE ON 88D BEING DETECTED AND WE CARRIED IT WITH A MVFR
RESTRICTION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KACY AND KMIV. NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT OTHER TERMINALS. DRIZZLE ALSO LIKELY AT LOWER DELMARVA
AIRPORTS EARLY. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BETWEEN 20 AND
30 KNOTS INLAND AIRPORTS/TERMINALS.
THIS AFTERNOON...FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS CIGS BECOMING VFR.
ELSEWHERE WE ARE BRINGING THE VFR CIG CLOSE TO KPHL BY THE END
OF THE AFTERNOON. MAINTAINING A HIGHER MVFR CIG FOR THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED SIMILAR TO THE MORNING.
SUNDAY EVENING...CIGS REMAINING MVFR AT KMIV AND KACY WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KTS.
ELSEWHERE WE WILL FORECAST A VFR CIG, BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FAR
NORTHWEST. WE KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BUT
DROP THE GUSTS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST OCCURRING IS
FOR NORTHERN AIRPORTS.
SUNDAY OVERNIGHT...WE ARE LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
AGAIN. ASIDE FROM KACY, NO GUSTS WERE CARRIED. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
AT KACY AND KMIV OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS AT ACY AND MIV
COULD GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WE HAVE CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND
HAVE REPLACED IT WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WIND GUSTS HAVE
FALLEN BELOW 34 KNOTS AND WITH A WEAKENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION, EXPECT GUSTS TO REMAIN CLOSER TO 25 KNOTS.
THE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TREND OF DECREASING THE WINDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
EXCLUDING DELAWARE BAY THRU 12Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE FROM GALE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
TIME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA FIVE FEET
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NO CHANGE IN THE COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES. ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE
AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, THE ETSS AND DBOFS GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN RUNNING HALF A FOOT TO FOOT TOO HIGH. THUS APPLYING THE
SAME CORRECTION FACTOR, THIS WOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
WITH TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND POSSIBLY NONE AT ALL WITH THIS
MORNING`S.
WE ARE FINDING A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN CHESAPEAKE BAY WHERE CBOFS
GUIDANCE VERIFIED HALF A FOOT TOO HIGH WITH THE CONCLUDED HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. HERE THE ETSS GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING SMALLER ERRORS AND WOULD
TAKE CAMBRIDGE TO MINOR, BUT NOT OUR THRESHOLD FOR ISSUING ADVISORIES
WITH THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
ON THE OCEAN FRONT, WE WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS UP
THROUGH THE HIGHER AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE BACK
BAYS WHICH HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME DRAINING. THE SUBSEQUENT OVERNIGHT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS ASTRONOMICALLY APPROXIMATELY HALF A FOOT LOWER.
THIS MAY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, BUT DONT WANT
A STEP DOWN DOUBLE HEADLINE FOR NOW.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
633 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL EXTEND SOUTH OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
MONDAY, KEEPING A STATIONARY FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE, THE
FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES IT CLOSE TO BERMUDA,
AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY, MOVING NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE, FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THRU OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND
INCLUDES A STRONGER, BROADER BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE
THERMAL`S WERE SPLIT BETWEEN THE NAM AT 850MB AND GFS AT 925MB.
THE RUNNING THEME CONTINUES WITH THE DP/DT BEING A SLOWER EVOLUTION
OF THE OVERALL PATTERN.
WE WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING.
WINDS ARE VERY SLOWLY DECREASING, BUT WE ARE STILL GETTING SOME
GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S (MPH). USED LATEST NAM`S 925MB WINDS AS
A TIMING BASIS. ITS TREND IS STILL SLOWLY DOWNWARD. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY, WE SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA TODAY. CONFIDENCE
INCREASES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
OTHERWISE, MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWS THE
MESOSCALE HRRR AND HI RES ARW THE CLOSEST AS THEY ARE MATCHING THE
ONGOING DRIZZLE OBS THE BEST. ITS MENTION IS MAINLY FROM THE I95
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WE HAVE MADE THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
DRY BEFORE STARTING TO BRING BACK CHANCES LATE AS ANOTHER SLUG OF
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE OUR WAY. ANY
CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE POCONOS.
WE WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE DAY PEAKS THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
RELAXATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, BETTER MIXING
THOUGH KEEPS GUSTS RELATIVELY THE SAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WE BRING BACK CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
IN INTERIOR AREAS, WE SHOULD FINALLY START SEEING A RELAXATION IN
THE WINDS, ALTHOUGH GUSTINESS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE FETCH FOR MOST OF OUR CWA IS
STILL FROM THE OCEAN. SO OTHER THAN THE POCONOS, NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT
MUCH CLEARING IN OUR CWA. WE WENT WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE,
CLOUDIER GUIDANCE AND OUR MIN TEMPS ARE TOWARD THE HIGHER RANGE OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
A PERIOD OF TRANSITION IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AS REX BLOCK OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THIS OCCURS, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY. A
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US /THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BLOCK/ WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IN THE MONDAY-
TUESDAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THE GUSTINESS SHOULD LARGELY ABATE
BY TUESDAY. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AOB AVERAGE ON MONDAY, AND
AOA AVERAGE THEREAFTER.
DETAILS...
MONDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ALOFT AS THE REGION
WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL BETWEEN SYSTEMS, AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CONFLUENT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET,
MOVING OFFSHORE JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS RESULTS IN SUBSIDENCE
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE COLUMN, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
OF I-95, WHERE THE MARITIME INFLUENCE DECREASES. THUS, EXPECT
A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHERE
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED IN
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT, THE AREA
WILL LARGELY BE WITHIN THE CONFLUENT REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THEREFORE, MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE PRECIP, EVEN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT/AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT TIMING THIS FEATURE LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, GIVEN THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW,
THIS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS FOR 12Z TAFS, NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 06Z
VERSION.
THIS MORNING...A HIGHER MVFR CIG IS PREDICTED TO OCCUR GENERALLY
BETWEEN 2K AND 3K. EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KMIV AND KACY. SOME
DRIZZLE ON 88D BEING DETECTED AND WE CARRIED IT WITH A MVFR
RESTRICTION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KACY AND KMIV. NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT OTHER TERMINALS. DRIZZLE ALSO LIKELY AT LOWER DELMARVA
AIRPORTS EARLY. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BETWEEN 20 AND
30 KNOTS INLAND AIRPORTS/TERMINALS.
THIS AFTERNOON...FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS CIGS BECOMING VFR.
ELSEWHERE WE ARE BRINGING THE VFR CIG CLOSE TO KPHL BY THE END
OF THE AFTERNOON. MAINTAINING A HIGHER MVFR CIG FOR THE REST
OF THE TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED SIMILAR TO THE MORNING.
SUNDAY EVENING...CIGS REMAINING MVFR AT KMIV AND KACY WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KTS.
ELSEWHERE WE WILL FORECAST A VFR CIG, BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FAR
NORTHWEST. WE KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BUT
DROP THE GUSTS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST OCCURRING IS
FOR NORTHERN AIRPORTS.
SUNDAY OVERNIGHT...WE ARE LOWERING CIGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
AGAIN. ASIDE FROM KACY, NO GUSTS WERE CARRIED. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
AT KACY AND KMIV OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS AT ACY AND MIV
COULD GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TREND OF DECREASING THE WINDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. WE KEPT THE SAME
EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AS THEY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT FIRST.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
EXCLUDING DELAWARE BAY THRU 12Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE FROM GALE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
TIME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA FIVE FEET
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
NO CHANGE IN THE COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES. ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE
AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED, THE ETSS AND DBOFS GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN RUNNING HALF A FOOT TO FOOT TOO HIGH. THUS APPLYING THE
SAME CORRECTION FACTOR, THIS WOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
WITH TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND POSSIBLY NONE AT ALL WITH THIS
MORNING`S.
WE ARE FINDING A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN CHESAPEAKE BAY WHERE CBOFS
GUIDANCE VERIFIED HALF A FOOT TOO HIGH WITH THE CONCLUDED HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. HERE THE ETSS GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING SMALLER ERRORS AND WOULD
TAKE CAMBRIDGE TO MINOR, BUT NOT OUR THRESHOLD FOR ISSUING ADVISORIES
WITH THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
ON THE OCEAN FRONT, WE WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS UP
THROUGH THE HIGHER AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE BACK
BAYS WHICH HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME DRAINING. THE SUBSEQUENT OVERNIGHT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS ASTRONOMICALLY APPROXIMATELY HALF A FOOT LOWER.
THIS MAY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, BUT DONT WANT
A STEP DOWN DOUBLE HEADLINE FOR NOW.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GIGI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL EXTEND SOUTH OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
MONDAY, KEEPING A STATIONARY FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE, THE
FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES IT CLOSE TO BERMUDA,
AND WELL AWAY FROM OUR REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY, MOVING NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE, FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THRU OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH ON THURSDAY WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND
INCLUDES A STRONGER, BROADER BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE
THERMAL`S WERE SPLIT BETWEEN THE NAM AT 850MB AND GFS AT 925MB.
THE RUNNING THEME CONTINUES WITH THE DP/DT BEING A SLOWER EVOLUTION
OF THE OVERALL PATTERN.
WE WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING.
WINDS ARE VERY SLOWLY DECREASING, BUT WE ARE STILL GETTING SOME
GUSTS IN THE UPPER 40S (MPH). USED LATEST NAM`S 925MB WINDS AS
A TIMING BASIS. ITS TREND IS STILL SLOWLY DOWNWARD. WHILE IT WILL
REMAIN WINDY, WE SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA TODAY. CONFIDENCE
INCREASES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
OTHERWISE, MENTION OF SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWS THE
MESOSCALE HRRR AND HI RES ARW THE CLOSEST AS THEY ARE MATCHING THE
ONGOING DRIZZLE OBS THE BEST. ITS MENTION IS MAINLY FROM THE I95
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WE HAVE MADE THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
DRY BEFORE STARTING TO BRING BACK CHANCES LATE AS ANOTHER SLUG OF
DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PREDICTED TO MOVE OUR WAY. ANY
CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE POCONOS.
WE WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE DAY PEAKS THIS MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
RELAXATION FOR THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, BETTER MIXING
THOUGH KEEPS GUSTS RELATIVELY THE SAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MOISTENING ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WE BRING BACK CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA.
IN INTERIOR AREAS, WE SHOULD FINALLY START SEEING A RELAXATION IN
THE WINDS, ALTHOUGH GUSTINESS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE FETCH FOR MOST OF OUR CWA IS
STILL FROM THE OCEAN. SO OTHER THAN THE POCONOS, NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT
MUCH CLEARING IN OUR CWA. WE WENT WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE,
CLOUDIER GUIDANCE AND OUR MIN TEMPS ARE TOWARD THE HIGHER RANGE OF
THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERVIEW...
A PERIOD OF TRANSITION IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AS REX BLOCK OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BREAKS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS THIS OCCURS, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND TO WESTERLY ON TUESDAY. A
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US /THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BLOCK/ WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IN THE MONDAY-
TUESDAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THE GUSTINESS SHOULD LARGELY ABATE
BY TUESDAY. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AOB AVERAGE ON MONDAY, AND
AOA AVERAGE THEREAFTER.
DETAILS...
MONDAY...THE FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK ALOFT AS THE REGION
WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL BETWEEN SYSTEMS, AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CONFLUENT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET,
MOVING OFFSHORE JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS RESULTS IN SUBSIDENCE
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THE COLUMN, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST
OF I-95, WHERE THE MARITIME INFLUENCE DECREASES. THUS, EXPECT
A DRY DAY WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHERE
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED IN
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE EVIDENT, THE AREA
WILL LARGELY BE WITHIN THE CONFLUENT REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THEREFORE, MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE PRECIP, EVEN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT/AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIP. ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT TIMING THIS FEATURE LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, GIVEN THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW,
THIS COULD CERTAINLY CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
06Z TAFS CONTINUE WINDY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
REST OF OVERNIGHT...CIGS MAINLY BETWEEN 1000-2000FT, SOME IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. WHILE SOME NON VSBY RESTRICTING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS, WE JUST CARRIED IT AT KACY
AND KMIV WITHE SOME UP TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHWEST
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.
THIS MORNING...A HIGHER MVFR CIG IS PREDICTED WITH NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD MIX A BIT MORE AND WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS INLAND AIRPORTS/TERMINALS.
THIS AFTERNOON...FAR NORTHWEST TERMINALS CIGS BECOMING VFR.
ELSEWHERE WE ARE MAINTAINING A HIGHER MVFR CIG. WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED SIMILAR TO THE MORNING.
SUNDAY EVENING...CIGS REMAINING MVFR AT KMIV AND KACY WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING AS HIGH AS 20 TO 30 KTS.
ELSEWHERE WE WILL FORECAST A VFR CIG, BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FAR
NORTHWEST. WE KEEP NORTHEAST WINDS AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BUT
DROP THE GUSTS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST OCCURRING IS
FOR NORTHERN AIRPORTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
DURING THE DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
AT KACY AND KMIV OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS AT ACY AND MIV
COULD GUST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME,
WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED DEEPER INTO THE NIGHT ALONG
THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE
TREND OF DECREASING THE WINDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. WE KEPT THE SAME
EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AS THEY SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT FIRST.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
EXCLUDING DELAWARE BAY THRU 12Z MONDAY. THEREAFTER, WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE FROM GALE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS
TIME.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AOA FIVE FEET
AT LEAST THRU WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
820 PM UPDATE TO CANCEL THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DELAWARE
RIVER AND THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY (NEW CASTLE COUNTY, DE AND SALEM
COUNTY, NJ) AND REPLACE IT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THRU
SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH THE ETSS AND DBOFS TIDAL PREDICTION CAME IN
BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND ONE FOOT TOO HIGH WITH THIS PAST HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING. THIS GUIDANCE HAS ALSO VERIFIED TOO
HIGH WITH PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE ETSS AND OFS GUIDANCE MAY HAVE PARTIALLY TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
THE BIAS AND HAVE TRENDED LOWER FOR THE EARLY MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY BUT LIKELY ARE STILL TOO
HIGH. THE OFS PREDICTION KEEPS REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA BELOW
MODERATE STAGE FOR BOTH HIGH TIDES TOMORROW WHILE THE ETSS
PREDICTION IS RIGHT AT MODERATE. THE IN-HOUSE REGRESSION GUIDANCE,
WHICH HAS VERIFIED THE BEST THUS FAR, BARELY GETS REEDY POINT TO
MINOR TIDAL FLOOD STAGE ON SUNDAY.
THE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE DEEP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE.
THE WORST OF THE FLOODING (WIDESPREAD MODERATE) WILL CONTINUE OVER
CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ AND EASTERN DE, PARTICULARLY IN THE BACK BAYS AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS NOT ALLOWED THE WATER THAT MADE IT IN THERE
DURING PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLES TO DRAIN. WE`LL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IN SOME OF
THESE VULNERABLE BACK BAYS.
ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE FROM ATLANTIC COUNTY NORTHWARD, COASTAL
FLOODING ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE UPPER END OF MINOR. HOWEVER,
WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UP AS ONCE AGAIN THE BACK BAYS
WILL BE AT RISK TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED FOR THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE MD CHESAPEAKE BAY. WATER LEVELS DID NOT INCREASE AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. THE NEWEST TIDAL GUIDANCE, WHICH TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE
PREVIOUS BIAS, NO LONGER FORECAST ADVISORY LEVEL FLOODING THRU THE
WEEKEND.
THE THREAT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS TO END BY MONDAY,
THOUGH MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-
071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NJZ012>014-020>027.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ024>026.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
NJZ016>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
DEZ002>004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ004.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450-451.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...FRANCK/GIGI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1034 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...MAIN ISSUE FOR THE UPDATE WILL CLOUD COVER BE CLOUD COVER
AND MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE SHOWS WESTERN
SHIELD OF CLOUD COVER IS SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO SW LOUISIANA. LOW
LEVEL RH PROGS FROM HRRR AND GFS HINT AT CLOUD COVER LINGERING
DURING MOST OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ACADIANA...WITH GREAT
UNCERTAINTY FURTHER WEST. WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA FOR TODAY WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT DROP OVER EASTERN PARTS
OF FORECAST AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS MOMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 75 60 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 76 62 84 67 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 74 63 86 67 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 77 62 83 67 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1006 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MAY HAVE MORE TO UPDATE IN THE UPCOMING HOURS, BUT HAVE UPDATED
THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE RAIN LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HRRR HAS BEEN MATCHING UP WITH THE KAPX RADAR DEPICTION
OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE HIRESW-NMM-EAST, A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING,
AND A SECOND WAVE IS COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
EVENING, AS WELL AS THE SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING UP.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING HAS SHIFTED WEST OF MICHIGAN...NOW
EXTENDING FROM WRN ONTARIO THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODEST SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS
NOSED ITS WAY INTO MICHIGAN. NRN EDGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE PERSISTENT MID ATLANTIC LOW HAS FINALLY REACHED OUR CWA...
PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AS WELL AS N CENTRAL AND NE LWR MICHIGAN. TIGHT EAST/WEST
MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA HAS KEPT MUCH OF OUR FAR
WRN CWA MAINLY DRY THRU THE NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY. SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE THRU OUR
CWA AND INTO ONTARIO. DIMINISHING LIFT AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SLOW DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND THUS
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD
OVER NE LWR MICHIGAN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON LONGEST.
STILL...ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY FOR THE NORTHWOODS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE E/NE BUT WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 MPH.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT...RENEWING OUR CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
SHALLOW...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL INTENSITY TO LIGHT. UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT E/NE WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CURRENT RATHER UNUSUAL
BLOCKING PATTERN ABOUT SET TO TRANSITION TO ONE MUCH MORE FAMILIAR
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH QUASI-ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ONCE
AGAIN BECOMING DOMINATE THIS WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN CONUS. MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET CORES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE LAKES...SUGGESTING ONLY BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF ANY CHILLY AIR AND A
FAIRLY MILD STRETCH OF OCTOBER WEATHER. NOT A PARTICULARLY ACTIVE
STRETCH OF WEATHER...ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING LIKE LATE WEEK SYSTEM
WILL BRING A BOUT OF WET WEATHER ALONG WITH IT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: CLOUD/LIGHT RAIN ISSUES
MONDAY. ADDRESSING BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL TO END THE WORK WEEK.
DETAILS: WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH OVERHEAD PESKY ATLANTIC MOISTURE
PLUME (ALBEIT THINNING) ON MONDAY. WHILE FORCING TO WORK OVER THIS
MOISTURE IS ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
RATHER DEEP SATURATED LAYER BELOW H8. THIS LOOKS JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. DESPITE TOP-DOWN MOISTURE
EVACUATION THROUGH THE DAY...SUB INVERSION LEVEL REMAINS SATURATED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...SUGGESTING CLOUDY SKIES WILL DOMINATE. A
DIFFERENT STORY NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE...WITH A MUCH DRIER PROFILE
SUPPORTING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. EARLIER MENTIONED PATTERN
CHANGE REALLY KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR BY LATE MONDAY...CONTINUING TOP-
DOWN DRYING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...SUB INVERSION LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKING TO HOLD STRONG...WITH SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO GET RID OF IT. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO THIN TO SUPPORT ANY
FURTHER DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES... BUT EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PATCHY FOG NIGHT...WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS
AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
FAST MOVING WEAK WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH SLICE ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO
BRING THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER. A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
A DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
HEADING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WELL DEFINED WAVE
INTERACTS WITH A DECENT SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SYSTEM WILL
BE A STEADY MOVER...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER BY SATURDAY. A RATHER
UNUSUAL FALL SYSTEM IN THAT NO SUBSTANTIAL COOLING FOLLOWS
IT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND ERN LWR MICHIGAN (APN). PRECIP CHANCES FOR
OUR TAF SITES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) WILL BE TOO SMALL
THRU TODAY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE E/NE AOB 10 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST AT SCA CRITERIA OVER LAKE HURON
THRU MUCH OF TODAY AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
PILE UP WAVES ALONG THE NEARSHORE AREAS. THE REST OF OUR NEARSHORE
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT OUR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREAS THRU
TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF OUR LAKE
MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SURGES INTO
OUR AREA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ347>349.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
535 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
TODAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPANDING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BETWEEN 3 AM AND MID MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST PREVALENT THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOST FOCUSED/WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. THE SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES HAVE TAKEN RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL MODELS
LIKE THE HRRR AND WRF THAT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
REMAINING SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...ELECTED TO KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AT LEAST FOR NOW. NO MAJOR FORECAST MODEL GIVES ANYONE
MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL AND THUS EXPECT RAIN
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO PERHAPS AROUND 0.10 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH AGAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE MID 60S OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
ZONES.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL JUST BE SITTING OUT OVER CALIFORNIA
AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN
SEEING A DRY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD MONDAY MORNING...SPECIFICALLY IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SETUP. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FLORIDA STATE LINE WILL FINALLY
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS
REMAINED IN PLACE FOR SOME TIME NOW...WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OFF FROM
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WHILE IT SPINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH REALLY NO AFFECT ON
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE LOW BECOMES MORE CUTOFF OVER TIME...VERY WEAK RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP DISTURBANCES THAT ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS FAR ENOUGH WEST BY THE EARLY WORKWEEK. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT IS A CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AS MODELS ARE REALLY BACKING OFF ON
PRECIPITATION REACHING THIS FAR EAST. SHOULD TIMING SPEED UP IN THE
SYSTEM...ITS POSSIBLE...BUT LOOKING LESS LIKELY.
THE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD
ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THE CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS TO DEEPEN. AT THE SURFACE...TWO AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...THE STANDARD FRONT RANGE
LOW...AND A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THE MAIN LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE PLAINS ACROSS TEXAS...WHILE THE TROUGH ENERGY WILL SWING NORTH
OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT RANGE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL ALSO PUSH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. NOW WHAT
DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN...MODELS ARE CERTAINLY SUGGESTING RAIN WILL BE
AROUND...ESPECIALLY AS THE ROCKIES LOW DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA...PROBABLY THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. BUT WITH THE
POSITION OF BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SPLITING NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE PLAINS...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS IS
LOW. IF THE FEATURES STRENGTHEN AND DEVELOP BEFORE REACHING THE
PLAINS...THEN CONFIDENCE IS BETTER...BUT IF NOT AS SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF...WE MIGHT SEE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HERE AND THERE AND
THATS IT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FAIRLY SEASONABLE IN THE 70S TO EVEN 80S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW DAYS. COLD FRONT IS LIKELY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BUT NOTHING DRASTIC
AS OF YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
AS OF 530 AM CDT...RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE KGRI/KEAR
AREA. BASED ON SHORT RANGE FORECAST MODELS THESE SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP AND BE IN THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AT ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST...BUT SHOULD BE ABOVE
3K AGL AND THUS VFR WILL PREVAIL. WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO MVFR
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WE ARE LOOKING
DRY BY AFTERNOON AND THEREAFTER. THE WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH EVENING AND THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1024 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
COORD WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND MADE CHANGES TO POPS...MAINLY
TO UP THEM SOME. BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHTH RAIN
SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE RRV. COVERAGE A BIT HIGHER THAN MOST
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE....BUT ALSO ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AS SUB CLOUD
LAYER AIRMASS IS STILL PRETTY DRY. BUT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT
A HIGH CHANCE TYPE RANGE ALONG THE BAND. MAIN SHORT WAVE IN
NEBRASKA WITH PRECIP TO SIOUX FALLS AREA MOVING NORTHEAST AND THAT
DOES APPEAR TO IMPACT MAINLY NE SD INTO SW MN LATER THIS AFTN/EVE.
DID KEEP THE POPS INTO THE AFTN AND EVE AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE RRV AND NW MN. TEMPS ARE TRICKY.
WE ARE GETTING SOME WARM ADVECTION....BUT CLOUDS WILL HAMPER FOR
SURE. SHORT RANGE MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM AND WILL
TONE DOWN A BIT AND KEEP ALL IN THE 50S TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY INTO MONDAY AND
TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS INITIALIZING SOME
LIGHT QPF TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF US THIS MORNING...SO WILL
FOLLOW.
FOR TODAY...THE HRRR INDICATES THAT SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT SOME AREAS COULD GET A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO WILL GO WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. PWATS
WILL APPROACH 1 INCH LATER TODAY IN THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE S/SE AND IT SHOULD BE BREEZY IN THE VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS
AROUND.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A
SFC BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION...SO WILL MENTION SOME LOW POPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE FAR NORTH...ALTHOUGH RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN NW
MN...OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRYING COLUMN AND SUNSHINE DEVELOPING WITH
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S WITH FAVORABLE WEST WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID 30S NORTH AND AROUND 40 SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AT LEAST IN THE NORTH AND WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
POTENTIAL.
ON TUESDAY...IT WILL BE DRY AND A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO WESTERN MN.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES AT TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH AN OVERALL WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORT
WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND 500MB RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WARMER TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY...SHIFTING SW LATER TONIGHT NEAR A SFC TROUGH. THERE COULD
BE A FEW SHOWERS TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS WITH
COVERAGE LOW.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
651 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY INTO MONDAY AND
TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS INITIALIZING SOME
LIGHT QPF TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF US THIS MORNING...SO WILL
FOLLOW.
FOR TODAY...THE HRRR INDICATES THAT SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT SOME AREAS COULD GET A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO WILL GO WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. PWATS
WILL APPROACH 1 INCH LATER TODAY IN THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE S/SE AND IT SHOULD BE BREEZY IN THE VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS
AROUND.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A
SFC BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION...SO WILL MENTION SOME LOW POPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE FAR NORTH...ALTHOUGH RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN NW
MN...OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRYING COLUMN AND SUNSHINE DEVELOPING WITH
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S WITH FAVORABLE WEST WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID 30S NORTH AND AROUND 40 SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AT LEAST IN THE NORTH AND WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
POTENTIAL.
ON TUESDAY...IT WILL BE DRY AND A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO WESTERN MN.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES AT TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH AN OVERALL WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORT
WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND 500MB RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WARMER TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
TODAY...SHIFTING SW LATER TONIGHT NEAR A SFC TROUGH. THERE COULD
BE A FEW SHOWERS TODAY...BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS WITH
COVERAGE LOW.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
618 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES WITH MOISTURE DECREASING OVER
THE WEEKEND. REMAINS DRY MOST OF THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SHIFTING SOUTH
OF THE AREA TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT UNDER EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT POCKETS OF CLEARING WITH FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PCPN WILL BE
LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES A TAD HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID 50S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL STAY IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US
WILL MOVE OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WARMED TEMPERATURES A BIT...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD. COULD GET
A LITTLE 500MB RIPPLE WITH SOME CLOUDS...BUT HAVE NO PRECIP
MENTIONED THROUGH MID WEEK. SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...DRIVING COLD FRONT THROUGH CWA ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
BLENDED TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA
REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS...KEEPING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE NAM AND RAP ARE RANGE
FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL OVER THE
MOUNTAIN TERRAIN TODAY...AND PERHAPS IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD VARY AND BECOME BRIEFLY
IFR ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 10/04/15
UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H M M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD -SHRA WERE APPROACHING KLBB AND KPVW FROM THE
WEST. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL LAST
UNTIL MID-MORNING WHERE A LULL WILL ENSUE...BEFORE POSSIBLE RE-
GENERATION SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
FOR A -SHRA PREVAILING MENTION AT KLBB AND KPVW UNTIL MID-
MORNING...WHERE THEREAFTER NOT TOO SURE WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION
WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND BKN-OVC VFR DECKS /WITH PERHAPS SCT
DURING THE LULL PERIOD/ WILL ENDURE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE UA RIDGE HAS EXITED THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UA
LOW TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS NRN CALI. THIS UA LOW WILL NOT ONLY
PROMOTE THE SHARPENING OF THE SW FLOW ALOFT /WHICH IS AIDING IN
STREAMING PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN NEARBY SFC LEE
TROUGHING AND LOWERED 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS. LOOKING AT THE SFC...A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME IS KEEPING PWATS AOA 1.00 INCH ACROSS
THE CWA...WHILST A 15-25 KT LLJ CRANKS AWAY THIS MORNING THUS
RESULTING IN ADEQUATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. IT IS THEREFORE NOT
SURPRISING TO SEE AN ONGOING BATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM ERN NM TO ACROSS THE WEST SOUTH
PLAINS...AND NE TO ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE...LEAVING PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES DRY PER 07Z RADAR ANALYSIS. THE TTU
MESONET REPORTED A FEW CITIES RECEIVING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT SINCE THIS SWATH OF
RAINFALL HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES SINCE LAST
NIGHT...TOTALS OF A HALF-INCH UP TO AROUND 1.00 INCH OR SO IS MORE
REPRESENTATIVE. MOTORIST ARE THEREFORE URGED TO APPROACH LOW-LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH CAUTION.
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
PRECIP SITUATION...AND AS SUCH SHOWS THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EWRD TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
ENDURE...WITH A NOTABLE LULL OCCURRING BY MID-MORNING. THIS LULL MAY
NOT LAST VERY LONG AS THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS HINT AT AN 80+ KT
250 MB JET MAX NEARING THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN AND
HENCE...PROVIDE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO RE-GENERATE STORMS MORE
SO FOR LOCALES ON THE CAPROCK /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER/.
THIS JET MAX WILL BE EXITING/WANING BY TONIGHT THOUGH LINGERING
STORMS ARE SHOWN TO OCCUR NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. IT IS INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING EWRD TO PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY PICKING UP ON A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE
SAID AREA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD /LOWER 40 DEWPOINTS
VERSUS UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S/. THIS CAN BE SEEN NOT ONLY VIA THE
METARS AND THEIR 07Z REPORTED DEWPOINTS BUT ALSO PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING MOIST MID-HIGH LEVELS BUT DRIER LOW LEVELS.
WILL THEREFORE SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WRN ZONES WITH NIL POPS
ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES. GUIDANCE TEMPS RUNNING A BIT TOO WARM AS
WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY WHERE MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLED TO SURPASS THE
60S. WILL THEREFORE GO BELOW GUIDANCE AND SHOW HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR
ALL BUT THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS /70S/...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S.
LONG TERM...
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER
THE SRN PLAINS AS A RESULT OF MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
FLOW OVER THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER
SRN CALIF. BRIEF PERIOD OF NO PRECIP TO LAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD WRN
NEW MEXICO. BEST LIFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FROM ERN ARIZONA TO THE BIG BEND. LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD REMAIN ON TRACK. BEYOND THURSDAY MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE GFS SHEARING THE UPPER LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS BUT NOT UNTIL A MATURE DEFORMATION SETS UP OVER THE FCST
AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THE TROUGH SPLITTING WITH SOME ENERGY
EJECTING QUICKLY EWD AND SOME MOVING SW THEN WEST AND CLOSING OFF
AGAIN UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS LATTER
PART IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS THE UPPER LOW...
MOVING IT FROM THE BIG BEND WWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO. GFS HAS BEEN
PLAYING CATCH-UP THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...IF NOT BY FRIDAY...AT LEAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP PREDOMINANT. EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE MIDDLE DAY
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...IE TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 47 65 50 / 70 20 20 10
TULIA 61 48 66 50 / 50 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 61 49 66 51 / 40 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 65 51 64 52 / 50 30 30 10
LUBBOCK 67 52 65 52 / 40 30 30 10
DENVER CITY 68 52 66 54 / 60 40 30 10
BROWNFIELD 69 53 66 53 / 50 30 30 10
CHILDRESS 69 54 71 56 / 10 10 20 0
SPUR 71 54 68 54 / 10 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 77 57 73 55 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
922 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PERSISTENT STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE ARE A
FEW HOLES NOTED IN THIS DECK...SO WE SHOULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE BY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ELSEWHERE...THE CLOUDS WILL HELP
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA SO
HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FOR TODAY ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURES.
WILL FOLLOW THE RAP 0.5 TO 1.0 KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT...WHICH
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS BETTER THAN MOST
OTHER MODELS.
IN SHORT...TODAY WILL BE MUCH CLOUDIER THAN MOST OF LAST WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN. HOWEVER...AN EXPANSIVE STRATO-CUMULUS DECK FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF IN SOME FORM AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TO THE WEST...CIRRUS ARE STREAMING
NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL STAY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT. DESPITE WARMER
925 HPA TEMPERATURES TODAY...THESE CLOUDS WILL NO DOUBT PUT A DENT
IN THE POTENTIAL WARM-UP...NOT TO MENTION MIXING WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS WEAK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THINK HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE 60 DEGREE
MARK...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER.
LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S WITH NO FROST ISSUES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY RESULTING IN VERY
WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND AGAIN LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE.
DESPITE 925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM +10 TO +12 CELSIUS...WILL CAP
MONDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT THIS MAY STILL BE TOO
WARM.
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS...COMBINED WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID
TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BREAK THE
70 DEGREE MARK MOST PLACES. WEDNESDAY NOW APPEARS MOSTLY DRY AS A
PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE RIVER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY
AS MODEST FORCING INTERACTS WITH INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDER ON THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
GOOD WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE BETWEEN 400 TO 800 J/KG. MUCH OF
THURSDAY WILL STILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SO HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE NATION/S MID-SECTION BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE LOWER STRATO-CU DECK IN THE 2000-3000 FT RANGE CONTINUES TO BE
PROBLEMATIC AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING...AND WILL REMAIN SO THRU
THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. BOTH KRST/KLSE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
LOWER CLOUD DECK AT 12Z...WITH FOG-PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOWING THIS EDGE
UNDULATING NORTH-SOUTH AND EAST-WEST THE PAST FEW HOURS. PRESENT
TREND HAS IT EXPANDING NORTH AGAIN...AGAINST THE BULK OF THE SFC-
850MB WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. LEFT CLOUDS OUT OF KRST RIGHT OFF
THE BAT...BUT CONTINUED TO SPREAD AN MVFR DECK ACROSS BOTH SITES
THRU THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. REMAINED OPTIMISTIC
FOR DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING TO SCATTER THE CLOUD DECK THRU THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE MEDIUM AT BEST
FOR THIS TO OCCUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE TO
INCREASE/DEEPEN TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST.
TRENDED TOWARD BKN-OVC 2000-2500 FT CIGS AFTER 01Z TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL IFR CIGS AT KRST LATE TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
630 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURES.
WILL FOLLOW THE RAP 0.5 TO 1.0 KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT...WHICH
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS BETTER THAN MOST
OTHER MODELS.
IN SHORT...TODAY WILL BE MUCH CLOUDIER THAN MOST OF LAST WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN. HOWEVER...AN EXPANSIVE STRATO-CUMULUS DECK FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF IN SOME FORM AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TO THE WEST...CIRRUS ARE STREAMING
NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL STAY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT. DESPITE WARMER
925 HPA TEMPERATURES TODAY...THESE CLOUDS WILL NO DOUBT PUT A DENT
IN THE POTENTIAL WARM-UP...NOT TO MENTION MIXING WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS WEAK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THINK HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE 60 DEGREE
MARK...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER.
LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S WITH NO FROST ISSUES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY RESULTING IN VERY
WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND AGAIN LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE.
DESPITE 925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM +10 TO +12 CELSIUS...WILL CAP
MONDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT THIS MAY STILL BE TOO
WARM.
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS...COMBINED WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID
TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BREAK THE
70 DEGREE MARK MOST PLACES. WEDNESDAY NOW APPEARS MOSTLY DRY AS A
PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE RIVER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY
AS MODEST FORCING INTERACTS WITH INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDER ON THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
GOOD WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE BETWEEN 400 TO 800 J/KG. MUCH OF
THURSDAY WILL STILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SO HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE NATION/S MID-SECTION BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE LOWER STRATO-CU DECK IN THE 2000-3000 FT RANGE CONTINUES TO BE
PROBLEMATIC AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING...AND WILL REMAIN SO THRU
THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. BOTH KRST/KLSE ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE
LOWER CLOUD DECK AT 12Z...WITH FOG-PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOWING THIS EDGE
UNDULATING NORTH-SOUTH AND EAST-WEST THE PAST FEW HOURS. PRESENT
TREND HAS IT EXPANDING NORTH AGAIN...AGAINST THE BULK OF THE SFC-
850MB WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. LEFT CLOUDS OUT OF KRST RIGHT OFF
THE BAT...BUT CONTINUED TO SPREAD AN MVFR DECK ACROSS BOTH SITES
THRU THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. REMAINED OPTIMISTIC
FOR DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING TO SCATTER THE CLOUD DECK THRU THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE MEDIUM AT BEST
FOR THIS TO OCCUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE TO
INCREASE/DEEPEN TONIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST.
TRENDED TOWARD BKN-OVC 2000-2500 FT CIGS AFTER 01Z TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL IFR CIGS AT KRST LATE TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
858 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
LATEST WYDOT WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG JUST WEST OF
CHEYENNE THIS MORNING. WILL GIVE THIS ANOTHER FEW HOURS TO LIFT
AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON TODAY. WENT AHEAD
AND LET EASTERN ZONE OF LARAMIE COUNTY EXPIRE ON TIME THIS
MORNING. UPDATES SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF SOUTHEAST WYO AND THE WESTERN NEB PANHANDLE THIS AM. DENSE FOG IS
ONCE AGAIN THE PROBLEM OF THE MORNING WITH PERSISTENT EAST/SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. JUST LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN IS THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE-CHEYENNE WHERE WYDOT
WEBCAMS HAVE FREQUENTLY SHOWN VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE QUARTER MILE. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE CREATING ENOUGH MIXING FOR BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS IN SFC
CONDITIONS...BUT FOG HAS BEEN RETURNING QUICKLY. WE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADZY FROM THE I80 SUMMIT EASTWARD INTO CHEYENNE UNTIL 15
Z WHEN THE HRRR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS LIFTING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT SHOWERS TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SHORT-
WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CWA. NO SIGN THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LET
UP ANYTIME SOON...SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL/DREARY DAY FOR MANY. H7
TEMPS BETWEEN +2 AND +4 DEG C WOULD SUGGEST DIFFICULTY EVEN GETTING
OUT OF THE 40S FOR SOME PLAINS SITES IF CLOUDS HANG ON ALL DAY WHICH
MOST NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST. THE MODELS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASING YET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...SO KEPT MENTION OF FOG
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WY AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH 15Z MON. WE
FINALLY GET RID OF THE UPSLOPE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD
HELP KICK OFF A WARMING TREND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE PROMOTING MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. PRECIP CHANCES MAY INCREASE LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO POPS AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH SLOWER AND
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...POSSIBLY YIELDING A DRIER SCENARIO
FOR THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESADY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LESS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MID TO
LATE THIS WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE WEST. THE NORTHERN
STREAM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
TEXAS BY LATE WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD SEE DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHOWER WILL NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE LATER IN
THE WEEK...THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPIPTATION WILL
BE ON THE LOW SIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SEASON NORMALS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE TODAY. IFR CIGS WILL BE PREDOMINANT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS LIFTING
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MAINLY MVFR. DENSE FOG WILL ALSO
OCCUR THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE
VISIBILITIES WILL BE DOWN TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT TIMES. CIGS
WILL AGAIN DROP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH FOG RETURNING
TO THE SAME AREAS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS
AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT SHOULD START TO SEE
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK. ISSUED AT 438 AM
MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
524 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF SOUTHEAST WYO AND THE WESTERN NEB PANHANDLE THIS AM. DENSE FOG IS
ONCE AGAIN THE PROBLEM OF THE MORNING WITH PERSISTENT EAST/SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. JUST LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN IS THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE-CHEYENNE WHERE WYDOT
WEBCAMS HAVE FREQUENTLY SHOWN VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE QUARTER MILE. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE CREATING ENOUGH MIXING FOR BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS IN SFC
CONDITIONS...BUT FOG HAS BEEN RETURNING QUICKLY. WE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADZY FROM THE I80 SUMMIT EASTWARD INTO CHEYENNE UNTIL 15
Z WHEN THE HRRR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS LIFTING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT SHOWERS TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SHORT-
WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CWA. NO SIGN THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LET
UP ANYTIME SOON...SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL/DREARY DAY FOR MANY. H7
TEMPS BETWEEN +2 AND +4 DEG C WOULD SUGGEST DIFFICULTY EVEN GETTING
OUT OF THE 40S FOR SOME PLAINS SITES IF CLOUDS HANG ON ALL DAY WHICH
MOST NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST. THE MODELS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASING YET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...SO KEPT MENTION OF FOG
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WY AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH 15Z MON. WE
FINALLY GET RID OF THE UPSLOPE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD
HELP KICK OFF A WARMING TREND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE PROMOTING MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. PRECIP CHANCES MAY INCREASE LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO POPS AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH SLOWER AND
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...POSSIBLY YIELDING A DRIER SCENARIO
FOR THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESADY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LESS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MID TO
LATE THIS WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE WEST. THE NORTHERN
STREAM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
TEXAS BY LATE WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD SEE DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHOWER WILL NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE LATER IN
THE WEEK...THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPIPTATION WILL
BE ON THE LOW SIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SEASON NORMALS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE NEBRAKSA PANHANDLE TODAY. IFR CIGS WILL BE PREDOMINANT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CIGS LIFTING
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MAINLY MVFR. DENSE FOG WILL ALSO
OCCUR THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE
VISIBILITIES WILL BE DOWN TO A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT TIMES. CIGS
WILL AGAIN DROP THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH FOG RETURNING
TO THE SAME AREAS ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS
AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT SHOULD START TO SEE
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK. ISSUED AT 438 AM
MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
951 AM MST SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AHEAD
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA. EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG
WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
EARLY OCTOBER. DRIER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE AREA
TODAY. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS
CONTINUED TO POINT TO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE MOST ACTIVE IN
TERMS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE THREAT OF HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERNS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS TRACK THE
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON TUESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING TO MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON
TRACK SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/18Z.
PROGRESSIVELY BECOMING SCT-BKN 6-10 KFT THIS MORNING. ISOLD -SHRA/TS
POSSIBLE NEAR ALL TERMINALS...INCREASING TO SCT -SHRA/TS COVERAGE BY
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS FROM KTUS EAST. SFC WINDS
INCREASING TO 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH KEEPING A SOUTHERLY
INFLUENCE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK WEEK
AND AFTERNOON BREEZES PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE LOW QUICKLY
DIGS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS AN INTERESTING
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER THIS...CAPTURING THE DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S SPREADING NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING NICELY (UP 4 TO 10
DEGREES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO). SOME CU FIELDS ENHANCING A LITTLE
FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NORTHWARD THROUGH PIMA COUNTY...THE
LATEST HRRR AND 06Z UA WRF-NAM HINTING AT A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY WEST
OF TUCSON THIS MORNING. WE`LL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP THROUGH THE DAY
WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.
THE LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO LOSE MUCH OF IT`S HIGHER LATITUDE
SUPPORT AS IT KICKS EASTWARD A LITTLE SLOWER MONDAY. WE`LL BE SEEING
AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STORM
ENHANCEMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. IT SHOULD BE FILLING A BIT AS IT SAGS THROUGH THE STATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL KEEP A DECENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY
IN EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO
WELL BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT
LOWS SINCE MID MAY ON THURSDAY MORNING...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN
COOLEST EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S IN SOME
LOCATIONS AROUND PIMA COUNTY (THE ONLY THREAT FOR FREEZING WILL BE
ABOVE 10K FEET).
AFTER MOST OF THE ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE TRYING TO LEAVE SOME WEAK REMNANT SAGGY TROUGH
ENERGY SOMEWHERE IN NORTH CENTRAL OR NORTHWEST MEXICO TO END THE
WEEK. THIS WOULD TEND TO SLOW ANY WARMING TREND FROM THE WEST COAST
RIDGE TRYING TO PHASE IN...AS WELL AS KEEPING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
IN THE PICTURE. LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP BUT NOT ZERO.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
IN THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST DISCUSSION...IDEAL NEAR
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD COMMENCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK
INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40F FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. NO
CHANGES TO CURRENT HEADLINES OR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRANQUIL
WITH A RETURN TOWARD SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE
RATHER CLOSE AND VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS EXCELLENT FORECAST GRIDS
SO LITTLE ENHANCEMENTS WERE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
STILL SOME QUESTION HOW MUCH ATLANTIC MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO OUR
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ADVECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. RH VALUES WITHIN THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL
GUIDANCE STILL POINT TOWARD RATHER HIGH VALUES WITHIN THE H850-700
LAYER ADVECTING INTO EASTERN NY MONDAY EVENING THEN ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWFA INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS PRIMARILY ALONG THE THERMAL
TROUGH AXIS AS WE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE PERCENTAGE WHICH
WILL STILL SPELL OUT PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF JOAQUIN AND THE ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
SOUTHERN TROUGH TO OUR EAST...A MORE NORMAL ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CONUS AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY THE WEEKEND...THERE IS SOME DISPARITY AMONG THE LONG TERM MODELS
REGARDING THE OVERALL TELE-CONNECTION. THE GFS AND CANADIAN HINT OF
RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATED A
TROUGH BEGINNING TO BUILD ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS RIDGE DEVELOPS
IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONUS.
SO CONFIDENCE STARTS HIGH IN THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...FALLING
TO AT LEAST MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST OPENS UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY WEATHER
WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER WITH SUNSHINE LOOKS
TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY...A DISTURBANCE INCLUDING SOME SORT OF LOW CENTER AND A
COLD FRONT...WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE
EUROPEAN FORECASTED THE DEEPEST LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHILE THE
CANADIAN OFFERED THE WEAKEST AND SLOWEST SOLUTION (A MUCH LESS DEEP
LOW PRESSURE CENTER)...NOT REACHING OUR REGION UNTIL SATURDAY. THE
12Z GFS WAS IN THE MIDDLE REGARDING THE LOW PRESSURE DEPTH...BUT
FASTER LIKE THE ECMWF.
FOR NOW...WE WILL INCLUDE MAINLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE BETTER
FORCING AND AND UPSLOPE LIFT WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH
THE DIFFERENCE FORECAST SOLUTIONS (THE CANADIAN MUCH SLOWER AND
IMPLYING SHOWERS ON SATURDAY)...WE WENT WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
IF THE 12Z GFS IS CORRECT...MORE MOISTURE COULD BEGIN TO BE POOLED
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS EARLY AS NEXT SUNDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIPPING SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA.
THE ECMWF HAS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION BY
SUNDAY (AGAIN WITH A TROUGH BUILDING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD). THIS WOULD IMPLY A MAINLY DRY SOLUTION BUT STILL
THERE IS A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN FORECAST PUSHING INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS.
SINCE BOTH MODELS SUGGEST SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THE
COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS NEXT
SUNDAY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED LOOKS PRETTY SPOT ON TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES. THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
ABOUT SATURDAY...COOLING A BIT NEXT SUNDAY TO THE HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN ZONES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AREAS...TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z MONDAY. AS A
RESULT MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND ONLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS FROM TIME TO TIME.
WINDS WILL BE N-NE AT 6-10 KTS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN N-NE AT
4-5 KTS MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NT-THURSDAY NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD FOR ALL OF
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE.
FIRE WEATHER RELATED CONCERNS REMAIN VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
RECENT WET CONDITIONS EARLIER IN THE WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 AND NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FROST AND DEW. MINIMUM RH VALUES OF
35 TO 50 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION WINDS OF 5 MPH OR LESS WILL BE LIKELY ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS IN THE ALBANY HYDRO
SERVICE AREA.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAINFALL ON FRIDAY. FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO SEASONAL
LEVELS FROM THE HEAVIER RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KENX RADAR IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO A
PEDESTAL ERROR.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NYZ038>041-047-054-058-061-082-084.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
NYZ032-033-042-043-083.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
EQUIPMENT...ALY STAFF
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
636 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WITH VERY HIGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. EXPECT DRYING
TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE 22Z THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED IN THE CSRA.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGEST MUCH LOWER HOURLY RAIN RATES OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO DROP WATCH FOR THE AUGUSTA METRO
AREA AND REST OF THE CSRA.
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN FL WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW PUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL SC COAST THROUGH THE MIDLANDS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS WITH
FLOODING OCCURRING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS.
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AT 20Z...THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...ALTHOUGH HOURLY RAIN RATES ARE A LITTLE LOWER.
RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWEST AND MAINLY AFFECT THE EASTERN/SOUTHEAST
MIDLANDS. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING RAINS MAY BE DIMINISHED IN THE CSRA...MAY DROP WATCH
EARLY THERE...BUT FOR NOW LETS KEEP OUR GUARD UP AS GFS STILL
SUGGESTS SOME RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AUGUSTA AREA.
SITUATION WHICH CONTINUES TO UNFOLD HAS REACHED CRITICAL
LEVELS...SCEMD HAS ISSUED A CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE URGING
EVERYONE TO REMAIN AT A SAFE AND DRY LOCATION AND ONLY LEAVE IF
TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.
OTHER CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. COMBINED WITH THE
SATURATED SOILS THIS WILL RESULT IN TREES BEING BLOWN
DOWN...INCLUDING ACROSS ROADWAYS AND INTO POWERLINES. NUMEROUS
TREES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED BLOWN DOWN DUE TO THE SATURATED
SOILS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAIN
FALLING ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL SEE AROUND 2 INCHES WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 3 MAINLY IN THE EAST. LESS QPF TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS SHOW HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BUT THE MODELS INDICATE LESS FORCING AND QPF. THE MODELS DEPICT
THE H5 LOW CONTOURS BECOME CONFLUENT WITH THE H85 JET BACKING
FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHING FROM 40 TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS
MONDAY NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHEAST PART. RUNOFF FROM THE EXTREME RAIN EVENT SHOULD STILL BE
AN ISSUE AND SOME AREA RIVERS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIVER FLOODING SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER WITH A
SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 20 PERCENT OR LESS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD...
EAST-WEST AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXTENDED FROM MYR TO CAE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND REORIENT TO MORE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AS
HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO IFR RANGE
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR VSBYS IN RAINFALL...POSSIBLE LOWER AT TIMES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT IFR/MVFR CIGS VSBYS TO
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
255 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
Upper low storm system over the southeastern this afternoon still
driving the moisture into the Midwest. Although the low and mid
level clouds persisted through the overnight, a wide swath of drying
spread through Ohio and Indiana and is slowly eroding the eastern
side of the cloud shield. Tonights forecast centers on how far
those clouds can erode before sunset and llvl moisture gets trapped
below the inversion. Clear areas to the east may end up seeing more
in the way of patchy fog and cooler temps, but a lot will hinge on
the xover temps and how far back to the E/SE the stratus redevelops
tonight. Have trended the forecast to the HRRR which has been
handling the erosion of the clouds quite well.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
Mostly clouds skies will still be lingering over most of central and
parts of eastern IL tomorrow, as the upper level low pressure area
in southeast US finally shifts out to sea. This will allow high
pressure ridge to build into the area for the first half of the
week. Winds will remain northeast but begin to decrease in speed
tomorrow and Tuesday, and then become more light and variable for
Wednesday. Dry weather is expected through the short-term period,
and with, hopefully, more sunshine than today, temps should quickly
warm into the 70s for tomorrow through Wednesday.
The next major weather system to bring pcpn to the area will be
later in the week, Thursday through Friday afternoon. The GFS and
ECMWF have come into better alignment with the timing of the front,
and it should move through the area Thursday night. So am expecting
light pcpn Thur morning in the west/northwest, with it then
spreading east during the day, and then continuing across the CWA
Thursday evening. Pcpn should begin ending from west to east late
Thursday night and then continue through Friday morning. Temps will
be above normal for Thursday, but once the front and pcpn move
through, temps will fall back into the 60s across most of the area.
This, however, will temporary as 70s should return for the end of
the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
HRRR is very optimistic in clearing the conditions across Central
Illinois, considering the continued northeasterly fetch to the
winds. However, it is also handling the clearing in the southeast
properly. Inclined to follow along at least as far as the early
afternoon. Main concern is how much mixing can occur to help erode
cloud cover before sunset and the inversion traps the moisture in
the low levels. Keeping it conservative for now... with VFR this
afternoon in the east, dropping to IFR overnightfor BMI PIA and
SPI deeper into the moisture. Confidence is low and changes are
anticipated as the sun sets and with the 00z sounding.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
330 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED TEMP TRENDS.
STRATUS ADVANCED WEST TO EAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT HAS RETREATED BACK EASTWARD SOMEWHAT BY
AFTERNOON...SEEMING TO STOP WHEN IT REACHED DEEPER CLOUD SHIELD. WRF
ARW...RAP AND HRRR HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON CLOUD TRENDS LAST
NIGHT...AND STILL APPEAR TO THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE FOLLOWED
INTO TONIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS CLOUDS WILL MOVE LITTLE AND THEN BEGIN
MOVING BACK NORTH AND WEST IN WEAK 0-1KM FLOW AS IT SHIFTS FROM NE
TO SE BY LATER THIS EVENING. CLOUDS SHOULD REACH ALL BUT FAR NW
SECTIONS TOWARD SUNRISE AND THEN EXPECT STRATUS TO STALL BY THAT
TIME WITH 0-1KM MEAN WIND DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO.
TEMPS WILL FALL LITTLE UNDER CURRENT THICKER CLOUD COVER SO HAVE
MINS LESS THAN FIVE DEGREES FROM CURRENT OBS THERE. FARTHER NORTH
AND WEST DIURNAL RANGE MAY BE GREATER WITH A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING DURING THE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THESE AREAS
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DURATION OF CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AND EXTENDED WILL BE
TEMPERATURES AS IOWA REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY...SUFFICIENT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED TODAY TO
KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS STATE...AND MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL HELP TO LIMIT
WARMING...AND HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHTLY LOWER
HIGHS THAN GOING. HOWEVER...WITH 850MB TEMPS CONTINUING TO WARM
BY MID WEEK...WILL SEE WARMING TREND TO TEMPS...AND IF CLOUDS
CLEAR WITH MIXING MAY BE TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
THEREFORE HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR WARMEST GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL SIMILARLY BE AFFECTED BY CLOUDS...MAY BE TOO WARM GIVEN
AMOUNT OF COOLING THE PAST NIGHTS...THOUGH HAVE FAVORED CONTINUED
CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS.
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME MID WEEK AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS SW US BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AS WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT
WITH SYSTEM...THOUGH ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BEST CHANCES COMING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY WITH SYSTEM PUSHING
SOUTH. SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTH QUICKLY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AGAIN BEHIND. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST WITH HIGH
FRIDAY...THOUGH ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WAA WILL RETURN BEHIND
RETREATING HIGH AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN FOR WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL PERSIST WITH THE ONLY
CONCERN IFR VS MVFR AND WHETHER VSBY RESTRICTIONS OCCUR. FAVORED
SCENARIO AT THE MOMENT IS MVFR CIGS/JUST ABOVE VFR VSBYS BY THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH CIGS MAINLY BELOW 2KFT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1240 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.AVIATION...
DEEP E-NE FLOW BROUGHT IN MVFR CIGS FROM MS RIVER VALLEY. THESE
CLOUDS MAY REMAIN THRU THE PERIOD AT KMLU AND KELD TERMINALS
WITHOUT MANY BREAKS...BUT ARE DIMINISHING AT KSHV AND KTXK.
VFR SKC IN NE TX...WITH MID LVL CLOUDS MOVG IN FROM THE WEST.
N-NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS...AND AROUND 10 KTS KELD AND KMLU
BECMG LGT AFTER 05/00Z. MVFR CIGS TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER
05/12Z WHERE THESE LOW DECKS NOT ALREADY PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE.
KLFK AND POSSIBLY KTYR TO REMAIN VFR THRU THE 05/18Z CYCLE./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD
OVER SW AR/N LA...WITH THE WRN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD COVER BEGINNING
TO MIX OUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUD FIELD EVIDENCED
BY THE 12Z KSHV RAOB. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS QUITE A BIT
DEEPER FARTHER E /PER THE 12Z KJAN RAOB/...TRAPPED BENEATH A
STEEP CAPPING INVERSION WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIMITED SFC WARMING. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING TODAY OVER
SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA...AND DRASTICALLY LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR THE
AREAS...TO NEAR 70/LOWER 70S PER THE COOLER HRRR 2M TEMP GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE FOR
THE FAR ERN ZONES. GIVEN THE COOLER START TO THE MORNING...TEMPS
ACROSS E TX MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED
SATURDAY...THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A TAD AS THESE AREAS WERE STILL
IN THE MID 60S AS OF 16Z.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATOCU FIELD WILL SPREAD
FARTHER WSW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON TO
HELP BETTER DEFINE THE TEMP/SKY COVER FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 62 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 71 62 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 78 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 77 59 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 73 60 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 80 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 80 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 80 59 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1148 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW OVER THE SE U.S. CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND LOW STRATOCUMULUS
DECK ~2000 FT ACROSS C AND SC LA...KEEPING AEX/LFT/ARA IN PREVAILING
MVFR CEILINGS. MAY HAVE INTERMITTENT BREAKS TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
BELIEVE THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS AREA HAS HALTED PER LATEST
VIS SAT TRENDS...THUS NOT EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS TO REACH LCH
(AND IF SO ONLY BRIEFLY) WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR BPT TO PREVAIL
VFR TODAY. OPTIMISTIC THIS LAYER SHOULD THIN OUT OVER C AND SC LA
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NE...THUS GOING WITH
ONLY SCT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...N WINDS ~10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KTS...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/
UPDATE...MAIN ISSUE FOR THE UPDATE WILL CLOUD COVER BE CLOUD COVER
AND MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE SHOWS WESTERN
SHIELD OF CLOUD COVER IS SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO SW LOUISIANA. LOW
LEVEL RH PROGS FROM HRRR AND GFS HINT AT CLOUD COVER LINGERING
DURING MOST OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ACADIANA...WITH GREAT
UNCERTAINTY FURTHER WEST. WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA FOR TODAY WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT DROP OVER EASTERN PARTS
OF FORECAST AREA. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS MOMENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 60 86 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
LCH 62 84 67 87 / 0 0 0 0
LFT 63 86 67 88 / 0 0 0 0
BPT 62 83 67 87 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1140 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU FIELD
OVER SW AR/N LA...WITH THE WRN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD COVER BEGINNING
TO MIX OUT GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUD FIELD EVIDENCED
BY THE 12Z KSHV RAOB. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE DEPTH IS QUITE A BIT
DEEPER FARTHER E /PER THE 12Z KJAN RAOB/...TRAPPED BENEATH A
STEEP CAPPING INVERSION WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LIMITED SFC WARMING. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING TODAY OVER
SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA...AND DRASTICALLY LOWERED MAX TEMPS FOR THE
AREAS...TO NEAR 70/LOWER 70S PER THE COOLER HRRR 2M TEMP GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE FOR
THE FAR ERN ZONES. GIVEN THE COOLER START TO THE MORNING...TEMPS
ACROSS E TX MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED
SATURDAY...THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A TAD AS THESE AREAS WERE STILL
IN THE MID 60S AS OF 16Z.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATOCU FIELD WILL SPREAD
FARTHER WSW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON TO
HELP BETTER DEFINE THE TEMP/SKY COVER FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 62 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 71 62 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 78 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 77 59 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 73 60 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 80 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 80 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 80 59 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
152 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
HAVE MADE MULTIPLE TWEAKS AFTER THE BIGGER CHANGES EARLIER TODAY.
MAIN THING IS THERE IS SOME WEAK LE RAIN BANDS MOVING IN OFF OF
LAKE HURON. THEY ARE WELL COORDINATED WITH THE +5C 850 MB
TEMPERATURE AND AREAS NORTH, WHERE THERE IS COOLER AIR, IN A
FAIRLY MOIST LAYER THAT EXTENDS UP THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB. THE BANDS
OVER THE LAST HOUR HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING ON THE RADAR OVER, BUT
THINK THAT ISOLATE RAIN SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE NORTH
OF M-72 TO THE STRAITS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MAY HAVE MORE TO UPDATE IN THE UPCOMING HOURS, BUT HAVE UPDATED
THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE RAIN LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HRRR HAS BEEN MATCHING UP WITH THE KAPX RADAR DEPICTION
OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE HIRESW-NMM-EAST, A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING,
AND A SECOND WAVE IS COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
EVENING, AS WELL AS THE SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING UP.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING HAS SHIFTED WEST OF MICHIGAN...NOW
EXTENDING FROM WRN ONTARIO THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODEST SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS
NOSED ITS WAY INTO MICHIGAN. NRN EDGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE PERSISTENT MID ATLANTIC LOW HAS FINALLY REACHED OUR CWA...
PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AS WELL AS N CENTRAL AND NE LWR MICHIGAN. TIGHT EAST/WEST
MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA HAS KEPT MUCH OF OUR FAR
WRN CWA MAINLY DRY THRU THE NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY. SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE THRU OUR
CWA AND INTO ONTARIO. DIMINISHING LIFT AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SLOW DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND THUS
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD
OVER NE LWR MICHIGAN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON LONGEST.
STILL...ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY FOR THE NORTHWOODS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE E/NE BUT WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 MPH.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT...RENEWING OUR CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
SHALLOW...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL INTENSITY TO LIGHT. UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT E/NE WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CURRENT RATHER UNUSUAL
BLOCKING PATTERN ABOUT SET TO TRANSITION TO ONE MUCH MORE FAMILIAR
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH QUASI-ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ONCE
AGAIN BECOMING DOMINATE THIS WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN CONUS. MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET CORES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE LAKES...SUGGESTING ONLY BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF ANY CHILLY AIR AND A
FAIRLY MILD STRETCH OF OCTOBER WEATHER. NOT A PARTICULARLY ACTIVE
STRETCH OF WEATHER...ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING LIKE LATE WEEK SYSTEM
WILL BRING A BOUT OF WET WEATHER ALONG WITH IT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: CLOUD/LIGHT RAIN ISSUES
MONDAY. ADDRESSING BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL TO END THE WORK WEEK.
DETAILS: WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH OVERHEAD PESKY ATLANTIC MOISTURE
PLUME (ALBEIT THINNING) ON MONDAY. WHILE FORCING TO WORK OVER THIS
MOISTURE IS ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
RATHER DEEP SATURATED LAYER BELOW H8. THIS LOOKS JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. DESPITE TOP-DOWN MOISTURE
EVACUATION THROUGH THE DAY...SUB INVERSION LEVEL REMAINS SATURATED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...SUGGESTING CLOUDY SKIES WILL DOMINATE. A
DIFFERENT STORY NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE...WITH A MUCH DRIER PROFILE
SUPPORTING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. EARLIER MENTIONED PATTERN
CHANGE REALLY KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR BY LATE MONDAY...CONTINUING TOP-
DOWN DRYING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...SUB INVERSION LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKING TO HOLD STRONG...WITH SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO GET RID OF IT. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO THIN TO SUPPORT ANY
FURTHER DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES... BUT EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PATCHY FOG NIGHT...WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS
AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
FAST MOVING WEAK WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH SLICE ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO
BRING THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER. A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
A DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
HEADING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WELL DEFINED WAVE
INTERACTS WITH A DECENT SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SYSTEM WILL
BE A STEADY MOVER...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER BY SATURDAY. A RATHER
UNUSUAL FALL SYSTEM IN THAT NO SUBSTANTIAL COOLING FOLLOWS
IT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE IFR CIGS, AND SOME MVFR VSBYS WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE MOIST, EAST FLOW CONTINUES IN
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN OFF OF LAKE HURON AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
REMAIN AROUND +5C OR LESS OVER THE 15 TO 17C WATER TEMPERATURES.
NOT TO MENTION THAT WITH THE SLACK GRADIENT WE HAVE THE CHANCE TO
HAVE SOME IFR VSBYS AT APN AND PLN WHERE THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO STAGNATE. AT TVC AND MBL, THE EAST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SOME DOWNSLOPING KEEPING THE VSBY IN THE MVFR OR VFR
CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST AT SCA CRITERIA OVER LAKE HURON
THRU MUCH OF TODAY AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
PILE UP WAVES ALONG THE NEARSHORE AREAS. THE REST OF OUR NEARSHORE
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT OUR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREAS THRU
TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF OUR LAKE
MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SURGES INTO
OUR AREA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1255 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
HAVE MADE MULTIPLE TWEAKS AFTER THE BIGGER CHANGES EARLIER TODAY.
MAIN THING IS THERE IS SOME WEAK LE RAIN BANDS MOVING IN OFF OF
LAKE HURON. THEY ARE WELL COORDINATED WITH THE +5C 850 MB
TEMPERATURE AND AREAS NORTH, WHERE THERE IS COOLER AIR, IN A
FAIRLY MOIST LAYER THAT EXTENDS UP THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB. THE BANDS
OVER THE LAST HOUR HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING ON THE RADAR OVER, BUT
THINK THAT ISOLATE RAIN SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE NORTH
OF M-72 TO THE STRAITS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MAY HAVE MORE TO UPDATE IN THE UPCOMING HOURS, BUT HAVE UPDATED
THE POPS FOR MOST OF THE RAIN LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. HRRR HAS BEEN MATCHING UP WITH THE KAPX RADAR DEPICTION
OF THE PRECIPITATION. LOOKING AT THE HIRESW-NMM-EAST, A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING,
AND A SECOND WAVE IS COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
EVENING, AS WELL AS THE SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING UP.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING HAS SHIFTED WEST OF MICHIGAN...NOW
EXTENDING FROM WRN ONTARIO THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODEST SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS
NOSED ITS WAY INTO MICHIGAN. NRN EDGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
THE PERSISTENT MID ATLANTIC LOW HAS FINALLY REACHED OUR CWA...
PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AS WELL AS N CENTRAL AND NE LWR MICHIGAN. TIGHT EAST/WEST
MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA HAS KEPT MUCH OF OUR FAR
WRN CWA MAINLY DRY THRU THE NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY. SHORT WAVE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE THRU OUR
CWA AND INTO ONTARIO. DIMINISHING LIFT AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SLOW DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND THUS
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL HOLD
OVER NE LWR MICHIGAN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON LONGEST.
STILL...ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT. EXPECT ANOTHER
CLOUDY AND COOL DAY FOR THE NORTHWOODS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE E/NE BUT WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 MPH.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA
TONIGHT...RENEWING OUR CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
SHALLOW...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL INTENSITY TO LIGHT. UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT E/NE WINDS...LOW TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: CURRENT RATHER UNUSUAL
BLOCKING PATTERN ABOUT SET TO TRANSITION TO ONE MUCH MORE FAMILIAR
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH QUASI-ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ONCE
AGAIN BECOMING DOMINATE THIS WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN CONUS. MAIN UPPER LEVEL JET CORES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE LAKES...SUGGESTING ONLY BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF ANY CHILLY AIR AND A
FAIRLY MILD STRETCH OF OCTOBER WEATHER. NOT A PARTICULARLY ACTIVE
STRETCH OF WEATHER...ALTHOUGH STILL LOOKING LIKE LATE WEEK SYSTEM
WILL BRING A BOUT OF WET WEATHER ALONG WITH IT.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: CLOUD/LIGHT RAIN ISSUES
MONDAY. ADDRESSING BETTER RAIN POTENTIAL TO END THE WORK WEEK.
DETAILS: WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH OVERHEAD PESKY ATLANTIC MOISTURE
PLUME (ALBEIT THINNING) ON MONDAY. WHILE FORCING TO WORK OVER THIS
MOISTURE IS ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
RATHER DEEP SATURATED LAYER BELOW H8. THIS LOOKS JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. DESPITE TOP-DOWN MOISTURE
EVACUATION THROUGH THE DAY...SUB INVERSION LEVEL REMAINS SATURATED
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...SUGGESTING CLOUDY SKIES WILL DOMINATE. A
DIFFERENT STORY NORTH OF THE BIG BRIDGE...WITH A MUCH DRIER PROFILE
SUPPORTING AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. EARLIER MENTIONED PATTERN
CHANGE REALLY KICKS INTO HIGH GEAR BY LATE MONDAY...CONTINUING TOP-
DOWN DRYING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...SUB INVERSION LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKING TO HOLD STRONG...WITH SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO GET RID OF IT. MOISTURE LOOKS TOO THIN TO SUPPORT ANY
FURTHER DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES... BUT EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PATCHY FOG NIGHT...WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS
AND FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
FAST MOVING WEAK WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH SLICE ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO
BRING THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER. A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
A DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY GIVES WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
HEADING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WELL DEFINED WAVE
INTERACTS WITH A DECENT SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SYSTEM WILL
BE A STEADY MOVER...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY...WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER BY SATURDAY. A RATHER
UNUSUAL FALL SYSTEM IN THAT NO SUBSTANTIAL COOLING FOLLOWS
IT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THRU
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND ERN LWR MICHIGAN (APN). PRECIP CHANCES FOR
OUR TAF SITES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN (PLN/TVC/MBL) WILL BE TOO SMALL
THRU TODAY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE E/NE AOB 10 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2015
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST AT SCA CRITERIA OVER LAKE HURON
THRU MUCH OF TODAY AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
PILE UP WAVES ALONG THE NEARSHORE AREAS. THE REST OF OUR NEARSHORE
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT OUR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREAS THRU
TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF OUR LAKE
MICHIGAN NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SURGES INTO
OUR AREA.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
326 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING MORE BREAKS IN
THE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK...MAINLY OVER SOUTH MS. WITH BOUNDARLY
LAYER COOLING AND NOTHING TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE IN THE INVERTED
LAYER...EXPECT CLOUD DECK TO CONGEAL ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. BETTER
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY WILL FINALLY ALLOW CLOUD DECK TO
BREAK APART...BUT THE ABSENCE OF AN AGENT TO CLEAR THE MOIST LAYER
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS OF CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND.
DESPITE THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING GETTING UNDERWAY TOMORROW...DECIDED
TO CUT MAX TEMPS A BIT AS CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE
DAY.
MOVING FORWARD INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD...COLD CORE LOW OVER THE SE
WILL FINALLY PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT WHILE ANOTHER POTENT LOW DIGS
OVER THE SW CONUS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN...
EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE NORTHERN MS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT AND THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN INTO NW SECTIONS BY FRIDAY AND AREAWIDE BY
SATURDAY. PRESENTLY THOUGH...WEAK WINDS AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD
SPELL JUST LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN AREAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO SEE
ANY./26/
&&
.AVIATION...THE STRATUS DECK HAS CONTINUED TO THIN AND BREAK UP SOME
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED HEATING...AND CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIFT SOME FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. GOING INTO TONIGHT...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW ON EXPANSE OF STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN STINGY WITH SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT...BUT GIVEN
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOWER CIGS
IN THE TAFS...ESPECIALLY AT GTR/MEI. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 58 82 64 85 / 2 2 2 7
MERIDIAN 60 81 62 84 / 5 2 2 6
VICKSBURG 58 83 63 88 / 1 2 3 7
HATTIESBURG 62 82 64 86 / 4 1 2 5
NATCHEZ 58 82 64 86 / 1 2 3 7
GREENVILLE 58 82 63 87 / 1 2 2 6
GREENWOOD 57 82 62 86 / 2 2 2 6
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
26/EC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1112 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME BIG BREAKS IN THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD DECK OCCURRING OVER EASTERN MS INTO AL. HRRR DATA IS
INDICATING THAT THE REDUCED WIND SPEEDS AND CHANGE IN DIRECTION HAS
REMOVED THE COLD ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THESE AREAS ALLOWING
MIXING TO GET MORE OF A FOOTHOLD. MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ON
THIS CLOUD DECK FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING BREAKS TO
REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE I55 CORRIDOR. MORE SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE TO NEAR 75 DEGREES OVER THE EAST WHILE TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 70 OVER THE WEST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD ON STRONG./26/
&&
.AVIATION...THE STRATUS DECK IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF THINNING AND
BREAKING UP AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER/INVERSION. NEWEST GUIDANCE SHOWS IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON THE POTENTIAL FOR PREVALENT VFR CATEGORIES CIGS CONTINUE
TO LIFT OR BREAK UP - BUT NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN...SO REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CATEGORY STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT WHICH WOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN
THE NEAR TERM REMAINS LOW CLOUDINESS AND ITS IMPACTS ON TEMPS.
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THE UPPER LOW HAS NOW CUT OFF OVER
SOUTH GA. 11-3.9U IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK
ENCOMPASSING ALMOST ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AROUND THE LOW. PATCHY MIST WAS OBSERVED
UNDER THIS CLOUD DECK, THOUGH THERE WERE NO NOTABLE RADAR RETURNS,
EXCEPT OVER NW ALABAMA AND FAR NE MISSISSIPPI WHERE SOMEWHAT STEADIER
DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING. 8Z TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 50S AT MOST LOCAL
RECORDING SITES.
HEADING THROUGH MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST. A RIBBON OF MOISTURE AROUND 850-950 MB WILL CONTINUE
TO TRAIL THIS FEATURE, MEANING THE PESKY BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD
DECK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO NERN ZONES TODAY, SO
ISOLATED POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE, ANY MIST OR
VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN INCONSEQUENTIAL. ONCE AGAIN WE TRENDED BELOW MOS FOR HIGH
TEMPS TODAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO THIN OUT MORE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, THOUGH WE MAY STILL SEE SCATTERED CLOUDS
CONTINUING INTO THE DAYTIME ESPECIALLY FARTHER EAST IN THE AREA.
WITH MORE INSOLATION ANTICIPATED, DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE 80S AT MOST LOCALES. /DL/
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE
ARKLAMISS REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WARM...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AREAS...TO THE MID
80S THROUGH THE WEEK.
MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TEXAS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO WANT TO BRING IN
SOME RAIN TO THE WEST A LITTLE EARLIER THAN OTHER MODELS AS THIS
UPPER LOW EJECTS EAST...BUT HAS SLOWED THIS RETURN DOWN BY ABOUT 6-
12 HOURS SINCE LAST NIGHT. OVERALL...SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE KEPT
IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND. /28/
AVIATION...MVFR CIGS DUE TO A STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST AT MOST
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING, GRADUALLY LIFTING BY THE AFTERNOON. MOST
TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS, BUT SOME FARTHER EAST
SITES SUCH AS GTR/MEI COULD SEE CIGS LINGER NEAR THE MVFR/VFR
THRESHOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST
TO 15-20 KT AT TIMES TODAY. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 73 60 84 63 / 3 4 5 5
MERIDIAN 76 64 81 62 / 8 9 7 5
VICKSBURG 69 60 85 63 / 1 3 4 4
HATTIESBURG 76 64 84 63 / 3 4 4 3
NATCHEZ 70 60 84 64 / 2 3 3 4
GREENVILLE 73 59 85 63 / 2 4 4 4
GREENWOOD 72 60 84 62 / 5 5 5 4
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
26/EC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1236 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
TODAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
EXPANDING ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BETWEEN 3 AM AND MID MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE MOST PREVALENT THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOST FOCUSED/WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES. THE SURROUNDING NWS OFFICES HAVE TAKEN RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL MODELS
LIKE THE HRRR AND WRF THAT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
REMAINING SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...ELECTED TO KEEP SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AT LEAST FOR NOW. NO MAJOR FORECAST MODEL GIVES ANYONE
MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAINFALL AND THUS EXPECT RAIN
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO PERHAPS AROUND 0.10 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH AGAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE MID 60S OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
ZONES.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL JUST BE SITTING OUT OVER CALIFORNIA
AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN
SEEING A DRY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD MONDAY MORNING...SPECIFICALLY IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SETUP. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FLORIDA STATE LINE WILL FINALLY
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS
REMAINED IN PLACE FOR SOME TIME NOW...WILL BEGIN TO BREAK OFF FROM
THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WHILE IT SPINS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
ENERGY FURTHER NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH REALLY NO AFFECT ON
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE LOW BECOMES MORE CUTOFF OVER TIME...VERY WEAK RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP DISTURBANCES THAT ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS FAR ENOUGH WEST BY THE EARLY WORKWEEK. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. TUESDAY NIGHT IS A CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AS MODELS ARE REALLY BACKING OFF ON
PRECIPITATION REACHING THIS FAR EAST. SHOULD TIMING SPEED UP IN THE
SYSTEM...ITS POSSIBLE...BUT LOOKING LESS LIKELY.
THE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD
ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THE CUTOFF LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
BECOME MORE ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW...ALLOWING FOR THE TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS TO DEEPEN. AT THE SURFACE...TWO AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...THE STANDARD FRONT RANGE
LOW...AND A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THE MAIN LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE PLAINS ACROSS TEXAS...WHILE THE TROUGH ENERGY WILL SWING NORTH
OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT RANGE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL ALSO PUSH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. NOW WHAT
DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN...MODELS ARE CERTAINLY SUGGESTING RAIN WILL BE
AROUND...ESPECIALLY AS THE ROCKIES LOW DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA...PROBABLY THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. BUT WITH THE
POSITION OF BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SPLITING NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE PLAINS...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNTS IS
LOW. IF THE FEATURES STRENGTHEN AND DEVELOP BEFORE REACHING THE
PLAINS...THEN CONFIDENCE IS BETTER...BUT IF NOT AS SUGGESTED BY THE
ECMWF...WE MIGHT SEE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HERE AND THERE AND
THATS IT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...FAIRLY SEASONABLE IN THE 70S TO EVEN 80S
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW DAYS. COLD FRONT IS LIKELY
THURSDAY MORNING...SO EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BUT NOTHING DRASTIC
AS OF YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
AT THE MIDDAY HOUR...AND LOOK TO AFFECT THE GRI TERMINAL OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE PUSHING OUT. DO HAVE THE EAR TERMINAL DRY.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD CALLS FOR VFR
CONDITIONS. MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT CLOUD WILL BE STICKING
AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND KEPT THE BKN VFR CEILING IN
PLACE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED WITH WINDS...WHICH ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...TOPPING OUT
AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...ADP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO FOR MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE FOCUS WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE STATE. NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 GENERALLY MORE LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL. A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO START FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THICKER CLOUD SHIELDS THAN ANTICIPATED WOULD CAUSE HIGH/LOW TEMPS
TO BE COOLER/WARMER THAN FORECASTED AND WILL ALSO LIMIT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS VERSUS SHOWERS. BASED ON LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS...FORECAST PACKAGE REFLECTS ON
HOW THAT WILL PLAY OUT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY WOUND UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR SANTA BARBARA CALIFORNIA CREATING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. ENOUGH CLEARING IN THE CLOUD DECK HAS ALLOWED FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NM. HIGH RES MODELS LEND TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND GENERALLY
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH IT WILL BE LESS ROBUST.
LACK OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY ACTIVITY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS MORE SHOWERY...WHICH WILL REDUCE RAINFALL
RATES AND LIMIT ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LIKELY
REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A QUARTER
MILE AT TIMES.
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND KEEP THAT
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE PULL OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. WHILE THE
MODELS PAINT SOME HEAVIER QPFS ACROSS THE WEST ALONG WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY DUE TO COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. NASA SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW
FAIRLY DRY GROUNDS ACROSS THE AREA THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WITHSTAND DECENT RAINS. REDUCED RAINFALL RATES DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSTABILITY WILL MAKE IT EVEN HARDER TO HAVE
FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS
DEALS WITH STORMS...THE EAST WILL GET A PAUSE ON RAINS AND WILL
BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVER SW NM
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION FIELD
EAST...COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE HAVING
THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP MOST OF THE
STATE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE
THURSDAY THAT WILL DRAG SOME OF THE MOISTURE FIELD WITH
IT...THOUGH EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THANKS THE LOW
DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...HELPING PUSH MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STATE WHILE CREATING
SOME BREEZY WINDS.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL CUT OFF SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE STATE FRIDAY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER TOP OF THE LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. NOT MUCH IF ANY
RAIN ANTICIPATED BUT YOU CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
24
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTN. LATEST HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE WEST WILL COME LATE
THIS AFTN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME AREAS IN NEED OF RAIN
SHOULD RECEIVE POTENTIALLY WETTING RAINS TONIGHT.
IF THE RAIN DOES NOT COME TONIGHT...BEST RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL
BE ACROSS WESTERN NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MORE WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY
AND A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
MORE WET WEATHER WILL COME ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO INCH
EASTWARD. WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WILL AGAIN BE FAVORED WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. BUT THEN... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS AZ AND INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF NM.
WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY REACH 1 OR 2 INCHES. A DUSTING OF SNOW
IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ABOVE 11KFT.
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UP TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES
WILL BE EXCELLENT...WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES RARELY FALLING BELOW 40
PERCENT.
STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES PAST WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE
THE LOW WILL SLOW ITS SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION AND PERHAPS
RETROGRADE OVER OLD MEXICO. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT
AT THIS TIME...IT DOES LOOK LIKE A DRIER TREND SHOULD START THURSDAY
FOR AT LEAST THE WEST AND PERHAPS FOR MORE OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WITH IT LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY.
STILL LOOKS LIKE FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD BE GOOD OR BETTER ELSEWHERE.
VENT RATES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL PLUMMET
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN MTNS THANKS TO WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD.
POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NM THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WELL.
34
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM...WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS. KCQC CONTINUES TO SEE LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG...AND MUCH OF
EASTERN NM CONTINUES TO SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS. THESE CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND IF NOTHING ELSE...WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. AREAS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
COULD SEE FOG REDEVELOP THIS EVE AS WELL. STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIMIT TS POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND
EVE. MEANWHILE...TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. A LINE OF STORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AZ/NM BORDER AND SHIFT
EASTWARD...POTENTIALLY MAKING INTO THE RGV AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
SHORT...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY.
34
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 54 71 52 69 / 60 70 70 50
DULCE........................... 38 66 40 63 / 60 70 70 60
CUBA............................ 46 65 44 63 / 30 40 60 30
GALLUP.......................... 48 68 45 64 / 40 70 60 40
EL MORRO........................ 45 62 42 61 / 70 70 60 40
GRANTS.......................... 48 66 44 65 / 60 60 40 30
QUEMADO......................... 51 66 43 63 / 50 70 30 50
GLENWOOD........................ 49 69 48 68 / 70 70 60 40
CHAMA........................... 41 61 41 60 / 60 50 50 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 63 47 65 / 40 40 70 20
PECOS........................... 46 60 45 65 / 60 40 50 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 63 44 65 / 20 40 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 43 56 40 60 / 30 50 30 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 60 37 64 / 30 50 30 20
TAOS............................ 46 64 43 67 / 20 30 20 20
MORA............................ 44 60 42 66 / 30 40 20 10
ESPANOLA........................ 46 69 46 70 / 20 30 50 10
SANTA FE........................ 50 62 48 66 / 30 30 50 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 66 47 69 / 20 30 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 69 53 69 / 20 30 60 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 71 55 72 / 20 20 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 73 52 74 / 20 20 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 71 54 70 / 20 20 50 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 53 73 53 72 / 20 20 40 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 55 70 53 70 / 20 20 50 20
SOCORRO......................... 57 72 54 73 / 30 20 30 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 63 49 65 / 40 40 50 20
TIJERAS......................... 51 66 50 68 / 40 30 50 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 65 44 70 / 40 20 30 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 46 61 45 68 / 40 20 20 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 67 47 69 / 50 20 40 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 52 68 50 71 / 50 20 30 30
RUIDOSO......................... 46 60 45 64 / 70 50 40 40
CAPULIN......................... 45 63 41 71 / 20 20 0 10
RATON........................... 47 67 44 74 / 20 20 10 10
SPRINGER........................ 49 66 46 74 / 20 20 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 58 43 69 / 30 20 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 48 66 50 77 / 20 10 0 5
ROY............................. 46 60 46 73 / 30 20 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 50 65 50 78 / 30 20 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 50 64 49 75 / 30 20 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 50 68 52 78 / 40 20 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 50 64 50 74 / 60 20 0 5
PORTALES........................ 51 66 51 75 / 60 20 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 51 64 51 74 / 60 20 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 55 67 55 75 / 70 20 10 10
PICACHO......................... 51 64 49 71 / 60 30 20 20
ELK............................. 49 60 47 68 / 70 40 30 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1212 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM...WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NOW STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS. KCQC CONTINUES TO SEE LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG...AND MUCH OF
EASTERN NM CONTINUES TO SEE MVFR TO IFR CIGS. THESE CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND IF NOTHING ELSE...WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. AREAS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
COULD SEE FOG REDEVELOP THIS EVE AS WELL. STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIMIT TS POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND
EVE. MEANWHILE...TSRA WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTN
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT IF THE HRRR IS CORRECT. A LINE OF STORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AZ/NM BORDER AND SHIFT
EASTWARD...POTENTIALLY MAKING INTO THE RGV AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN
SHORT...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARD NEW MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BRINGING GOOD CHANCES
FOR RAIN AS IT DRAWS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH FROM OVER MEXICO.
CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND RAIN
CHANCES GRADUALLY DWINDLING.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW OVER
NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DIVING SOUTHWARD...WITH LIGHTNING IN THE
CORE OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AN INDICATION OF THE COLD
CORE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE.
AT THIS SAME TIME...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DRAW NORTH
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH PWATS TRENDING UP. AT 00Z THE KABQ PWAT WAS
0.71"...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. 00Z MODEL
PWAT FORECASTS FOR KABQ SHOW MOISTURE PEAKING BETWEEN 12Z SUNDAY
AND 12Z MONDAY AROUND 0.85". SO WHILE MOISTURE TRENDS UP...
INSTABILITY IS TRENDING DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF DUE TO A
MUCH COOLER LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. VERY LITTLE LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF...BUT DECENT SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF GARDEN VARIETY STORMS WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS LIKELY. HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. LASTLY...AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN RATON...LAS VEGAS AND
RUIDOSO WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH TODAY DUE TO SUSTAINED UPSLOPE
FLOW AND CONTINUED RAIN-COOLING OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER.
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST MONDAY...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LOW...FORECAST TO BE OVER/NEAR LAS VEGAS NEVADA BY LATE DAY.
TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS
GO...WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVERTAKING THE
WESTERN HALF AND THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AZ. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A LOCK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25...WITH THE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WHERE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL RANGE FROM 40-50KTS. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS WILL FALL TO INCLUDE SOME OF OUR PEAKS ABOVE 11K FEET.
OTHERWISE...THE LOW WILL BE FILLING AS IT MOVES OVER AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
A WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THEN
TAKES A WESTWARD TURN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WITH A BUILDING RIDGE
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL AREAWIDE BY NEXT SUNDAY AT THE LATEST WITH RAIN CHANCES
DROPPING OUT OF THE FORECAST.
11
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COOL AND WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO
INCLUDE WESTERN NM. A PERIOD OF HIGHER HUMIDITIES...THICK CLOUD
COVER...RAIN/STORMS...AND BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER CALIFORNIA IS DRAWING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM. WETTING RAINFALL...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM TODAY AND EXPAND
TO THE WEST TODAY SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.
EXPECT WAVES OF RAIN AND STORMS TO MOVE NORTH OVER THE STATE AGAIN
MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES
TO THE SE TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN. 5-DAY PRECIP TOTALS ON THE ORDER
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL AVERAGE 80 TO 100 PCT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH MIN VALUES HOVERING IN THE 40 TO 60 PCT RANGE. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOREST IN THE EAST WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
TEMPS MAY BECOME COLD ENOUGH BENEATH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TRAVERSES THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OF SNOW ABOVE 11KFT. BEYOND THURSDAY...FORECAST MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO THE SE OF NM
THEN RETROGRADE WESTWARD BACK TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
REGARDLESS...THE SUMMER-LIKE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE ENDED FOR
THE REGION AND COOLER/MOIST FALL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
NOT UNEXPECTED THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WEAKENED AS THEY MOVED
INTO THE RRV...TO MORE ISOLATED -RW OR SPRINKLES. EXTENSIVE MID
CLOUDS AND A FEED OF ISOLD SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THRU THE AFTN/EVE.
A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS NR SIOUX FALLS AND HURON MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND COULD SKIRT THE FAR SE FCST AREA LATE THIS
AFTN/EVE. PATCH IS MORE TOWARD WATERTOWN-ALEXANDRIA THOUGH.
OVERALL MINOR TWEEKS MADE TO POPS AND TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES TODAY INTO MONDAY AND
TEMPS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS INITIALIZING SOME
LIGHT QPF TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF US THIS MORNING...SO WILL
FOLLOW.
FOR TODAY...THE HRRR INDICATES THAT SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT SOME AREAS COULD GET A FEW HUNDREDTHS SO WILL GO WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. PWATS
WILL APPROACH 1 INCH LATER TODAY IN THE WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE S/SE AND IT SHOULD BE BREEZY IN THE VALLEY. TEMPS SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS
AROUND.
FOR TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH A
SFC BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION...SO WILL MENTION SOME LOW POPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN THE FAR NORTH...ALTHOUGH RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
ON MONDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN NW
MN...OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRYING COLUMN AND SUNSHINE DEVELOPING WITH
DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S WITH FAVORABLE WEST WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID 30S NORTH AND AROUND 40 SOUTH. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AT LEAST IN THE NORTH AND WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
POTENTIAL.
ON TUESDAY...IT WILL BE DRY AND A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO WESTERN MN.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES AT TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH AN OVERALL WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORT
WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH SOME LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND 500MB RIDGING AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WARMER TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MAINLY DEALING WITH SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW
WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS AROUND. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT
ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL HIT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SO WILL NOT
MENTION THEM AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL START TO TURN AROUND TO THE
SSW ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT MORE SO FOR KDVL/KGFK/KFAR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1257 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA AT KLBB AND KPVW THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
THIS EVENING. ALSO CIGS COULD DROP TO THE TOP OF THE MVFR
CATEGORY...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT IT WILL BE BRIEF. JH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/
AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD -SHRA WERE APPROACHING KLBB AND KPVW FROM THE
WEST. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL LAST
UNTIL MID-MORNING WHERE A LULL WILL ENSUE...BEFORE POSSIBLE RE-
GENERATION SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
FOR A -SHRA PREVAILING MENTION AT KLBB AND KPVW UNTIL MID-
MORNING...WHERE THEREAFTER NOT TOO SURE WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION
WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND BKN-OVC VFR DECKS /WITH PERHAPS SCT
DURING THE LULL PERIOD/ WILL ENDURE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE UA RIDGE HAS EXITED THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UA
LOW TRANSLATING SSE ACROSS NRN CALI. THIS UA LOW WILL NOT ONLY
PROMOTE THE SHARPENING OF THE SW FLOW ALOFT /WHICH IS AIDING IN
STREAMING PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL ALSO MAINTAIN NEARBY SFC LEE
TROUGHING AND LOWERED 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS. LOOKING AT THE SFC...A
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME IS KEEPING PWATS AOA 1.00 INCH ACROSS
THE CWA...WHILST A 15-25 KT LLJ CRANKS AWAY THIS MORNING THUS
RESULTING IN ADEQUATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. IT IS THEREFORE NOT
SURPRISING TO SEE AN ONGOING BATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM ERN NM TO ACROSS THE WEST SOUTH
PLAINS...AND NE TO ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE...LEAVING PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES DRY PER 07Z RADAR ANALYSIS. THE TTU
MESONET REPORTED A FEW CITIES RECEIVING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH SO FAR THIS MORNING...BUT SINCE THIS SWATH OF
RAINFALL HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES SINCE LAST
NIGHT...TOTALS OF A HALF-INCH UP TO AROUND 1.00 INCH OR SO IS MORE
REPRESENTATIVE. MOTORIST ARE THEREFORE URGED TO APPROACH LOW-LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WITH CAUTION.
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
PRECIP SITUATION...AND AS SUCH SHOWS THE ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EWRD TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
ENDURE...WITH A NOTABLE LULL OCCURRING BY MID-MORNING. THIS LULL MAY
NOT LAST VERY LONG AS THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS HINT AT AN 80+ KT
250 MB JET MAX NEARING THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN AND
HENCE...PROVIDE THAT LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO RE-GENERATE STORMS MORE
SO FOR LOCALES ON THE CAPROCK /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER/.
THIS JET MAX WILL BE EXITING/WANING BY TONIGHT THOUGH LINGERING
STORMS ARE SHOWN TO OCCUR NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. IT IS INTERESTING
TO NOTE THAT THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO HAVE A HARD TIME
SPREADING EWRD TO PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOLUTIONS ARE
LIKELY PICKING UP ON A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE
SAID AREA THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD /LOWER 40 DEWPOINTS
VERSUS UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S/. THIS CAN BE SEEN NOT ONLY VIA THE
METARS AND THEIR 07Z REPORTED DEWPOINTS BUT ALSO PROGGED MODEL
SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING MOIST MID-HIGH LEVELS BUT DRIER LOW LEVELS.
WILL THEREFORE SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WRN ZONES WITH NIL POPS
ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES. GUIDANCE TEMPS RUNNING A BIT TOO WARM AS
WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY WHERE MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLED TO SURPASS THE
60S. WILL THEREFORE GO BELOW GUIDANCE AND SHOW HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR
ALL BUT THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS /70S/...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S AND 50S.
LONG TERM...
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER
THE SRN PLAINS AS A RESULT OF MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
FLOW OVER THE CONUS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER
SRN CALIF. BRIEF PERIOD OF NO PRECIP TO LAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD WRN
NEW MEXICO. BEST LIFT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FROM ERN ARIZONA TO THE BIG BEND. LIKELY
POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD REMAIN ON TRACK. BEYOND THURSDAY MODELS
DIVERGE WITH THE GFS SHEARING THE UPPER LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS BUT NOT UNTIL A MATURE DEFORMATION SETS UP OVER THE FCST
AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY THE TROUGH SPLITTING WITH SOME ENERGY
EJECTING QUICKLY EWD AND SOME MOVING SW THEN WEST AND CLOSING OFF
AGAIN UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS LATTER
PART IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS THE UPPER LOW...
MOVING IT FROM THE BIG BEND WWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO. GFS HAS BEEN
PLAYING CATCH-UP THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...IF NOT BY FRIDAY...AT LEAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD RUN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIP PREDOMINANT. EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE MIDDLE DAY
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...IE TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 47 65 50 / 70 20 20 10
TULIA 61 48 66 50 / 50 20 20 10
PLAINVIEW 61 49 66 51 / 40 20 20 10
LEVELLAND 65 51 64 52 / 50 30 30 10
LUBBOCK 67 52 65 52 / 40 30 30 10
DENVER CITY 68 52 66 54 / 60 40 30 10
BROWNFIELD 69 53 66 53 / 50 30 30 10
CHILDRESS 69 54 71 56 / 10 10 20 0
SPUR 71 54 68 54 / 10 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 77 57 73 55 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
539 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND NOSING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH MOIST ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RISING OVER THE BOUNDARY. THE MID-LEVELS ARE NOT SATURATED
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP JUDGING FROM 12Z SOUNDINGS...BUT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXISTS BELOW 800MB FOR A LOW OVERCAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE OVERCAST LIES JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. CLOUD TRENDS AND
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN DRAPED
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND EVER SO SLIGHTLY LIFTS NORTHWEST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE SATURATED LAYER
WILL GROW THROUGH 700MB ALONG AND EAST OF THE FOX VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE BROKEN TO OVERCAST WITH CLOUD BASES
THAT LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THOUGH OVER N-C AND CENTRAL WI. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE DURING THE MORNING SINCE
THE FRONT HARDLY BUDGES. BUT THEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PICK UP
MOMENTUM TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE
SOME CLEARING TAKE PLACE OVER N-C AND CENTRAL WI WI. TOUGH TO SEE
MUCH CLEARING FURTHER EAST THOUGH. WARMER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PCPN CHANCES AND TIMING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE NEXT
WORK WEEK. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SAG SOUTH ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MAKE
A PUSH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK...
A DRY FCST IS ANTICIPATED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDS NGT
AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING LATE WEDS NGT...AFFECTING THE
ENTIRE REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN PULLING OUT THURSDAY EVENING.
STRONG DYNAMICS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PCPN AMOUNTS OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...AS WELL AS ISOLD/SCT TSTMS. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY...BUT SUBSEQUENT FCSTS MAY NEED TO RAISE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL.
ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHWOODS...MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE PLEASANT WEATHER WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING OVER MOST LOCATIONS WILL
LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG AND
DRIZZLE MAY WORK INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON MONDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND NOSING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHES
FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH MOIST ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RISING OVER THE BOUNDARY. THE MID-LEVELS ARE NOT SATURATED
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP JUDGING FROM 12Z SOUNDINGS...BUT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXISTS BELOW 800MB FOR A LOW OVERCAST. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE OVERCAST LIES JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. CLOUD TRENDS AND
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN DRAPED
OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND EVER SO SLIGHTLY LIFTS NORTHWEST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE SATURATED LAYER
WILL GROW THROUGH 700MB ALONG AND EAST OF THE FOX VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD SEE BROKEN TO OVERCAST WITH CLOUD BASES
THAT LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THOUGH OVER N-C AND CENTRAL WI. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE DURING THE MORNING SINCE
THE FRONT HARDLY BUDGES. BUT THEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PICK UP
MOMENTUM TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD THEREFORE SEE
SOME CLEARING TAKE PLACE OVER N-C AND CENTRAL WI WI. TOUGH TO SEE
MUCH CLEARING FURTHER EAST THOUGH. WARMER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
PCPN CHANCES AND TIMING ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERNS.
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE NEXT
WORK WEEK. A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SAG SOUTH ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MAKE
A PUSH THROUGH THE FCST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK...
A DRY FCST IS ANTICIPATED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDS NGT
AND THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING LATE WEDS NGT...AFFECTING THE
ENTIRE REGION ON THURSDAY...THEN PULLING OUT THURSDAY EVENING.
STRONG DYNAMICS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PCPN AMOUNTS OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY...AS WELL AS ISOLD/SCT TSTMS. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
LIKELY POPS ON THURSDAY...BUT SUBSEQUENT FCSTS MAY NEED TO RAISE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL.
ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHWOODS...MOST PLACES SHOULD HAVE PLEASANT WEATHER WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. CIGS LIKELY TO LOWER OVER EASTERN AND
CENTRAL WI TONIGHT TO IFR LEVELS. PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY ALSO LOWER
VSBYS AT TIMES ACROSS THE EAST AS WELL. CIGS/VSBYS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE ON MONDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1237 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURES.
WILL FOLLOW THE RAP 0.5 TO 1.0 KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT...WHICH
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS BETTER THAN MOST
OTHER MODELS.
IN SHORT...TODAY WILL BE MUCH CLOUDIER THAN MOST OF LAST WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGIONAL WEATHER
PATTERN. HOWEVER...AN EXPANSIVE STRATO-CUMULUS DECK FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY HAS LIFTED NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF IN SOME FORM AT LEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. TO THE WEST...CIRRUS ARE STREAMING
NORTHWARD ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL STAY ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN WI INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT LESS CERTAIN ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT. DESPITE WARMER
925 HPA TEMPERATURES TODAY...THESE CLOUDS WILL NO DOUBT PUT A DENT
IN THE POTENTIAL WARM-UP...NOT TO MENTION MIXING WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS WEAK. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT THINK HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE 60 DEGREE
MARK...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER.
LOW CLOUDS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
40S WITH NO FROST ISSUES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY RESULTING IN VERY
WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND AGAIN LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE.
DESPITE 925 HPA TEMPERATURES FROM +10 TO +12 CELSIUS...WILL CAP
MONDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT THIS MAY STILL BE TOO
WARM.
SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS...COMBINED WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID
TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BREAK THE
70 DEGREE MARK MOST PLACES. WEDNESDAY NOW APPEARS MOSTLY DRY AS A
PACIFIC SHORT-WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.
RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE RIVER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY
AS MODEST FORCING INTERACTS WITH INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDER ON THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
GOOD WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE BETWEEN 400 TO 800 J/KG. MUCH OF
THURSDAY WILL STILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE SYSTEM...SO HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 70S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE NATION/S MID-SECTION BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN OVC-BKN
STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH CLOUD BASES RANGING FROM 1500-2500 FT. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTIONS WE COULD SEE SOME FOG TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE NOT EXPECTING FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD WERE TO CLEAR TONIGHT WE COULD SEE
SOME AREAS OF FOG. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON CLOUD TRENDS
THIS EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WETENKAMP
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM....ROGERS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1159 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
LATEST WYDOT WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW DENSE FOG JUST WEST OF
CHEYENNE THIS MORNING. WILL GIVE THIS ANOTHER FEW HOURS TO LIFT
AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH NOON TODAY. WENT AHEAD
AND LET EASTERN ZONE OF LARAMIE COUNTY EXPIRE ON TIME THIS
MORNING. UPDATES SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS A LARGE PART
OF SOUTHEAST WYO AND THE WESTERN NEB PANHANDLE THIS AM. DENSE FOG IS
ONCE AGAIN THE PROBLEM OF THE MORNING WITH PERSISTENT EAST/SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE. JUST LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN IS THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LARAMIE-CHEYENNE WHERE WYDOT
WEBCAMS HAVE FREQUENTLY SHOWN VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE QUARTER MILE. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE CREATING ENOUGH MIXING FOR BRIEF IMPROVEMENTS IN SFC
CONDITIONS...BUT FOG HAS BEEN RETURNING QUICKLY. WE DECIDED TO ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADZY FROM THE I80 SUMMIT EASTWARD INTO CHEYENNE UNTIL 15
Z WHEN THE HRRR AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS LIFTING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT SHOWERS TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SHORT-
WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CWA. NO SIGN THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LET
UP ANYTIME SOON...SO IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL/DREARY DAY FOR MANY. H7
TEMPS BETWEEN +2 AND +4 DEG C WOULD SUGGEST DIFFICULTY EVEN GETTING
OUT OF THE 40S FOR SOME PLAINS SITES IF CLOUDS HANG ON ALL DAY WHICH
MOST NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST. THE MODELS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASING YET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...SO KEPT MENTION OF FOG
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WY AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH 15Z MON. WE
FINALLY GET RID OF THE UPSLOPE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD
HELP KICK OFF A WARMING TREND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE PROMOTING MORE IN
THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. PRECIP CHANCES MAY INCREASE LATE MON NIGHT INTO
TUE AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. DID NOT MAKE
MANY CHANGES TO POPS AS GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING MUCH SLOWER AND
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...POSSIBLY YIELDING A DRIER SCENARIO
FOR THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LESS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR MID TO
LATE THIS WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE WEST. THE NORTHERN
STREAM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO
TEXAS BY LATE WEEK. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD SEE DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY. WHILE SHOWER WILL NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE LATER IN
THE WEEK...THE OVERALL CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ON THE LOW SIDE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE SEASON NORMALS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH IFR PREVAILING
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS
AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT SHOULD START TO SEE
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK. ISSUED AT 438 AM
MDT SUN OCT 4 2015
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...SML