Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/03/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
916 AM MST THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
GIVES WAY TO A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL AFFECT THE
WESTERN STATES. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE DRY AND WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT APPROACHES BEFORE
IT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS
ADDITIONAL COOLING AND RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REMAIN BELOW
100 FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WARM VEERING PROFILE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS SONORA. 12Z TWC SOUNDING RECORDED AN 850
MB TEMPERATURE OF 26.2C WHICH IS NEAR THE RECORD FOR THE DAY. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE IN FORM OF NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST FOR PHOENIX IS 105 DEGREES...WHICH IS ONLY 2
DEGREES BELOW THE DAILY RECORD OF 107. THE DAILY RECORD IS OUT OF
REACH AT YUMA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED
THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BUT A BIT COOLER FURTHER WEST. THE COOLING WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES IT WILL DISPLACE THE RIDGE. IN THE
PROCESS THERE WILL BE AN UPSWING IN THE WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND
WELCOME COOLING FRIDAY. IN FACT...HIGHS ON THE LOWER DESERTS FRIDAY
WILL FINALLY DIP BELOW 100. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WITH THE BRUNT OF IT PASSING TO THE NORTH.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW BECOMES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS PART OF AN
OMEGA PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
FOR SEVERAL DAYS MODELS HAVE HAD WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS FROM ONE
ANOTHER AND QUITE A BIT OF RUN TO RUN VARIATION ALONG WITH A LOT OF
SPREAD AMONGST THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. THE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF
WHICH HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT. WITH THE LATEST 00Z RUN THE GFS
HAS PRETTY MUCH COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. THE GEFS MEAN
SUPPORTS IT AND THERE IS A LOT LESS SPREAD AMONGST THE INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS. THE GEM HAD BEEN CLOSER FOR SOME TIME ALREADY. THUS
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS INCREASED. THE
POSITIONING OF THE LOW ALONG WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO ENABLES ENABLES NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM MARTY. THE
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE THOUGH THEY DO AGREE ON
KEEPING DRY AIR ABOVE ABOUT 600 MB WITH MOISTURE EVEN MORE SHALLOW
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND MEAGER CAPE BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT NOTABLE QPF OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS IS APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO DYNAMICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH. DIV-Q FIELDS LOOK MODEST OVER OUR AREA
AND THE MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET. THE
ECMWF IS MORE GENEROUS WITH THE QPF AND THAT MAY BE DUE TO HOW IT
ALSO FORECASTS A COUPLET OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. CONVECTION IS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL
BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF COOLING IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER BUT RATHER THE COOLING ALOFT IS HIGHER UP. THAT IS BECAUSE THE
LOW DOES NOT CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BUT MOVES EASTWARD MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY PER COORDINATION AND IN ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF MOS TRENDS BUT
PERSISTENT DRY SLOT PATTERN KEEPS THE POPS FROM BEING HIGH. ONLY
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING OUT ALTOGETHER
WEDNESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD WITH ONLY WEAK
LINGERING TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SLOW HEIGHT RISES. AS FOR
TEMPS...BC GRIDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE COOL ADVECTION SO
NUDGED THE HIGHS DOWNWARD A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ALSO PUT IN
A SLOWER WARMUP. BREEZINESS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH VARYING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS...WILL KEEP MINS A BIT WARMER THAN WOULD EXPECT
GIVEN THE COOLER HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. A FEW WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PRIMARILY AT KPHX.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT A WESTERLY SFC WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST
LONGER INTO TONIGHT THAN HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A PERIOD OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR SE CALIFORNIA. WESTERLY GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KIPL AFTER SUNSET...WITH SPEEDS
SOMEWHAT LESS AT KBLH AND DIRECTION MAINTAINING A MORE SWLY
COMPONENT. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF
WEAKENING SFC WINDS AND DIRECTIONAL SHIFTS LATE TONIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
DATE PHOENIX YUMA
---- ------- ----
OCT 1 107 IN 1980 110 IN 1980
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN EXITING DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
PLACE SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM LEADS TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS...WINDY AT RIDGETOPS...SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND PRIMARILY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA...SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
COOLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES SATURDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE ELEVATED AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS THROUGH MID 20S FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE
DESERTS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
OF NOTE...THIS FORECAST HAS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH
IT DUE TO THE WIDE VARIETY OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BEING PRESENTED BY
THE COMPUTER MODELS. HOWEVER...NONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WOULD RESULT
IN EXTREME CONDITIONS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1108 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
GENERATED A QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BASED ON LATEST RADAR COMBINED WITH RUC QPF TRENDS.
CONVERSELY...INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WHICH WAS FAR MORE EXTENSIVE THAN REPRESENTED IN GRIDDED
DATA FIELDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
ENERGY AND A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO STREAM
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA TODAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THEN NORTH...AND SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
THESE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DAY
HEATS UP. THEN AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING.
ON THURSDAY A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SHIFT
INLAND NUDGING THE UPPER RIDGE TO EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
AS A RESULT...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY. HOWEVER GUSTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME
THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET...BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON THU...BUT
THIS WILL BE OUR LAST DAY OF LATE SUMMER-LIKE READINGS.
THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE
MODELS INDICATE A DRY SLOT WILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE
NIGHT...SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TOWARDS MORNING. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
WHILE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR NORTHWEST CORNER BY AROUND
MID-MORNING...AND INTO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW WITH THE LOW
CENTER OVER THE WY/UT/CO TRIPLE POINT AT 03Z PER THE 12Z NAM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF...AND THE CENTRAL CO
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE BEST ACTIVITY FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT
SAID...REINFORCING ENERGY WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL WY THROUGH SAT FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...SO
ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANY SNOW.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE LOADED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY SAT. THE MID TERM MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE PATH THIS STRONG CUT OFF LOW WILL TAKE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN ANY CASE TROUGHINESS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD KEEPING POSSIBLE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY FALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE TOP OF A RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF BOOKCLIFFS
TONIGHT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTS AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES.
AFTER 18Z ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AT TAF SITE.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
129 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT BRINGING MORE RAIN LATE TODAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. IN
ADDITION...STRONG COASTAL NORTHEAST WINDS AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO SATURDAY. MORE RAIN AND WIND IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE
JOAQUIN...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
NNE FLOW CONTINUES TO PULL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NRN NEW
ENGLAND HIGH PRES INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS KEEPING MUCH OF
THE REGION DRY AND EVEN ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERALL
SKY COVER. OTHERWISE...INITIAL BAND OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL WAVE CURRENTLY DELIVERING LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO ACK.
THIS INITIAL BAND WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE A REINFORCING WAVE DEVELOPS BY THE EVENING HOURS.
THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARD LATEST HRRR WHICH SHOWS THIS
HIGH-LOW-HIGH TREND IN POPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MOST INLAND LOCALES REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
AND EVENING HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND APPEARS TO BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY FOR TODAY. A
STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING IN
DRY AIR AS WELL AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER COULD SEE
SHOWERY WEATHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THANKS TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT POOLING AGAINST STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH PRECIP COULD GET AS BUILDING DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE MAY CREATE A SHARP QPF CUTOFF. TRENDED TOWARDS HI-
RES GUIDANCE AND NAM/GFS FOR TODAY IN PRECIP CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD PUSHING STALLED FRONT BACK TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
THE NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH
CONTINUES TO BUILD. LOCATIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE COULD SEE
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS IS BELOW WIND ADV...WITH THE
FULLY LEAVED TREES CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW TREES/BRANCHES COMING DOWN.
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY THE TIMING
AND AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS UNCERTAIN. MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON HEAVY PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THANKS TO THE DRY AIR
TO THE NORTH. RIGHT NOW HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP.
COLD AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. DO NOT BELIEVE
FROST HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AS BL WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH
TO STOP FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TOMORROW...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. BERMUDA HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN PUSHING THE STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST COULD SEE
CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAIN...LESS AS YOU MOVE FARTHER NORTH. HAVE A
LOW CONFIDENCE IF LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE PIKE WILL SEE PRECIP AS DRY
AIR WILL CREATE A TIGHT QPF GRADIENT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR PRECIP TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS.
FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH
WILL CREATE A SIMILAR COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE 60F WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COOLEST HIGH RECORDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RAIN LINGERING INTO FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY S COAST
* STRONG COASTAL NE WINDS WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE
DURING THE HIGH TIDES THROUGH SAT
* POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL
DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN
OVERVIEW...
THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THIS WILL DICTATE THE EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WIND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACTLY HOW JOAQUIN INTERACTS WITH SE US UPPER LOW AND DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING RIDGE AND THUS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE FORECAST
TRACK AMONG GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM
LANDFALL IN SC TO NYC TO COMPLETELY OUT TO SEA. SIGNIFICANT NWD
SHIFT IN GFS WITH TRACK NEAR NYC ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT HAVE SUPPORT
OF GEFS MEMBERS. UKMET ALSO SAW A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND IS NOW
KEEPING JOAQUIN OFFSHORE WHILE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL
RUNS WITH OFFSHORE TRACK. THIS MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CLUSTERING OF THE TROPICAL MODELS AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO SUGGEST JOAQUIN MAY EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
MID ATLC COAST WITH POSSIBLE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NC COAST AND
DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST. WE FOLLOWED NHC FORECAST WHICH WOULD KEEP THE MAIN
IMPACT SOUTH OF NEW ENG BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE
SOMETIME LATE SUN INTO MON. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE FURTHER E SOLUTIONS WITH NO IMPACT SO WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION VERY CLOSELY.
DAILIES...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THE S COAST ALONG WITH GOOD 850 MB
FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE S COAST. UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR N RAIN WILL GET AS
THERE IS A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE N. GFS
APPEARS TOO FAR N WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN AND SO WE KEPT HIGHEST
POPS NEAR THE S COAST WITH DECREASING POPS TO THE N. IT IS POSSIBLE
IT STAYS DRY N OF THE MASS PIKE. MOISTURE AND FORCING DECREASE
DURING SAT SO JUST SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. NE LOW LEVEL
JET 30-40 KT SETS UP ACROSS SNE AND WITH DECENT MIXING MUCH OF THIS
WIND WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT AND
POTENTIAL FOR 40 KT OVER THE ISLANDS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
FORECAST DEPENDS ON TRACK OF JOAQUIN. LOTS OF SPREAD MAKES FOR A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND COASTAL WIND.
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH TRACK FURTHER N ACROSS MID ATLC BUT
OFFSHORE SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN MINIMAL IMPACT. FOLLOWING NHC
FORECAST AND HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH STRONGER WINDS LIKELY
REMAINING TO THE S.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LIKELY AS JOAQUIN MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
WINDS...WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECT
SUSTAINED NE WINDS 15-25 KT INLAND...20-30 KT CLOSER TO THE
COAST...AND 30+ KT AT TIMES CAPE/ISLANDS. GUSTS ABOUT 10 KT
HIGHER. PEAK SUSTAINED/GUSTS LATE DAY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR CIGS E OF A LINE FROM IJD-ORH-BVY...VFR TO THE W OF
THIS LINE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAINLY CAPE/ISLANDS
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL E OF THIS LINE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT QUITE AS HEAVY AS WED.
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TREND CONTINUES...MVFR E OF THE IJD- BED-BVY LINE WITH VFR W.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH SOME IFR MIXED IN BY EVENING
HOWEVER. COULD EXPAND TO INCLUDE CT VALLEY TERMINALS. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW...TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY SAT
MORNING.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE S
COAST WITH MOSTLY VFR NORTH OF THE PIKE. PERIODS OF RAIN FRI
NIGHT...MAINLY S COAST. NE GUSTS TO 25-35 KT...STRONGEST ACROSS SE
NEW ENG COAST.
SUN INTO MON...LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND ON TRACK OF
JOAQUIN. POTENTIAL FOR IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IF JOAQUIN
TRACKS FURTHER N ALONG MID ATLC COAST...BUT A TRACK OFFSHORE WOULD
RESULT IN MOSTLY VFR AND MINIMAL WIND IMPACTS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. FOR
TODAY ANTICIPATE GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS WHICH WILL HELP BUILD SEAS TO 8-
10 FEET. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS
WILL REACH ABOVE 35 KTS AND THUS HAVE ISSUED/EXTENDED GALES FOR ALL
OF THE WATERS. CONTINUED SCA FOR BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY
AS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. ANTICIPATE GALES WARNING TO BE EXTENDED INTO
THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NE GALES WITH GUSTS 35-40
KT. SEAS 10-15 FT OUTER WATERS.
SUN INTO MON...LOW CONFIDENCE. A CONTINUATION OF E/NE WINDS ARE
LIKELY BUT MAGNITUDE OF WINDS AND SEAS AND EXTENT OF RAINFALL WILL
DEPEND ON TRACK OF JOAQUIN WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TODAY...STIFFENING NE FLOW TODAY WILL BE REFLECTED IN AN INCREASING
STORM SURGE ALONG THE MA E COAST...PROBABLY RISING TO BETWEEN 1.0
AND 1.5 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THE POSITIVE TIDAL
DEPARTURE IN ADDITION TO A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL LIKELY SET
THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE MA E COAST
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. SEAS WILL BE
BUILDING JUST OFFSHORE TO PERHAPS 8 TO 10 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON. DUE
TO SOME WAVE ACTION AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH WATER LEVELS...SOME
EROSION IS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERIZED AS
SEVERE.
TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE THE 1.0 TO 1.5 SURGE TO PERSIST ALONG THE MA E
COAST BUT TONIGHT`S ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS NOT AS HIGH AS THE
AFTERNOON TIDE AND ANTICIPATE JUST A FEW POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.
FRI...PERSISTENT NE FLOW MAY CAUSE THE SURGE TO RISE A TAD MORE AND
BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.7 FEET ALONG THE MA E COAST DURING
THE FRI AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THIS ON TOP OF THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE AND WAVES OF 8 TO 12 FEET JUST OFFSHORE MAY CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE REACHES OF THE MA EAST
COAST. HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO AVOID
DOUBLE HEADLINES. DAY CREW WILL NEED TO ISSUE AFTER TODAYS HIGH
TIDE.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES GRADUALLY LOWER
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT A PERSISTENT NE OR E FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
SURGE AROUND OR PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN 1.5 FEET ALONG THE E
COAST. IN ADDITION...A SHIFT IN SURFACE FLOW TO BE MORE FROM THE
E OR EVEN ESE IN ADDITION TO THE ARRIVAL OF SWELLS FROM JOAQUIN
MAY SERVE TO INCREASE THE SURGE ALONG SOME S COAST AREAS ENOUGH
FOR THE RISK OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THERE. HOW
MUCH OF AN IMPACT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
JOAQUIN.
DATE / BOSTON HIGHEST TIDE / TIME
THURSDAY OCTOBER 1 / 12.0 FEET / 2:17 PM
FRIDAY OCTOBER 2 / 11.5 FEET / 3:30 PM
SATURDAY OCTOBER 3 / 11.0 FEET / 4:06 PM
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT BRINGING MORE RAIN LATE TODAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. IN
ADDITION...STRONG COASTAL NORTHEAST WINDS AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO SATURDAY. MORE RAIN AND WIND IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE
JOAQUIN...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
NNE FLOW CONTINUES TO PULL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NRN NEW
ENGLAND HIGH PRES INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS KEEPING MUCH OF
THE REGION DRY AND EVEN ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERALL
SKY COVER. OTHERWISE...INITIAL BAND OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL WAVE CURRENTLY DELIVERING LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO ACK.
THIS INITIAL BAND WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE A REINFORCING WAVE DEVELOPS BY THE EVENING HOURS.
THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARD LATEST HRRR WHICH SHOWS THIS
HIGH-LOW-HIGH TREND IN POPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MOST INLAND LOCALES REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
AND EVENING HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND APPEARS TO BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY FOR TODAY. A
STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING IN
DRY AIR AS WELL AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER COULD SEE
SHOWERY WEATHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THANKS TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT POOLING AGAINST STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH PRECIP COULD GET AS BUILDING DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE MAY CREATE A SHARP QPF CUTOFF. TRENDED TOWARDS HI-
RES GUIDANCE AND NAM/GFS FOR TODAY IN PRECIP CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD PUSHING STALLED FRONT BACK TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
THE NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH
CONTINUES TO BUILD. LOCATIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE COULD SEE
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS IS BELOW WIND ADV...WITH THE
FULLY LEAVED TREES CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW TREES/BRANCHES COMING DOWN.
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY THE TIMING
AND AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS UNCERTAIN. MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON HEAVY PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THANKS TO THE DRY AIR
TO THE NORTH. RIGHT NOW HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP.
COLD AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. DO NOT BELIEVE
FROST HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AS BL WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH
TO STOP FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TOMORROW...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. BERMUDA HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN PUSHING THE STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST COULD SEE
CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAIN...LESS AS YOU MOVE FARTHER NORTH. HAVE A
LOW CONFIDENCE IF LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE PIKE WILL SEE PRECIP AS DRY
AIR WILL CREATE A TIGHT QPF GRADIENT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR PRECIP TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS.
FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH
WILL CREATE A SIMILAR COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE 60F WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COOLEST HIGH RECORDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RAIN LINGERING INTO FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY S COAST
* STRONG COASTAL NE WINDS WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE
DURING THE HIGH TIDES THROUGH SAT
* POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL
DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN
OVERVIEW...
THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THIS WILL DICTATE THE EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WIND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACTLY HOW JOAQUIN INTERACTS WITH SE US UPPER LOW AND DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING RIDGE AND THUS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE FORECAST
TRACK AMONG GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM
LANDFALL IN SC TO NYC TO COMPLETELY OUT TO SEA. SIGNIFICANT NWD
SHIFT IN GFS WITH TRACK NEAR NYC ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT HAVE SUPPORT
OF GEFS MEMBERS. UKMET ALSO SAW A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND IS NOW
KEEPING JOAQUIN OFFSHORE WHILE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL
RUNS WITH OFFSHORE TRACK. THIS MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CLUSTERING OF THE TROPICAL MODELS AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO SUGGEST JOAQUIN MAY EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
MID ATLC COAST WITH POSSIBLE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NC COAST AND
DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST. WE FOLLOWED NHC FORECAST WHICH WOULD KEEP THE MAIN
IMPACT SOUTH OF NEW ENG BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE
SOMETIME LATE SUN INTO MON. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE FURTHER E SOLUTIONS WITH NO IMPACT SO WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION VERY CLOSELY.
DAILIES...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THE S COAST ALONG WITH GOOD 850 MB
FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE S COAST. UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR N RAIN WILL GET AS
THERE IS A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE N. GFS
APPEARS TOO FAR N WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN AND SO WE KEPT HIGHEST
POPS NEAR THE S COAST WITH DECREASING POPS TO THE N. IT IS POSSIBLE
IT STAYS DRY N OF THE MASS PIKE. MOISTURE AND FORCING DECREASE
DURING SAT SO JUST SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. NE LOW LEVEL
JET 30-40 KT SETS UP ACROSS SNE AND WITH DECENT MIXING MUCH OF THIS
WIND WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT AND
POTENTIAL FOR 40 KT OVER THE ISLANDS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
FORECAST DEPENDS ON TRACK OF JOAQUIN. LOTS OF SPREAD MAKES FOR A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND COASTAL WIND.
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH TRACK FURTHER N ACROSS MID ATLC BUT
OFFSHORE SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN MINIMAL IMPACT. FOLLOWING NHC
FORECAST AND HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH STRONGER WINDS LIKELY
REMAINING TO THE S.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LIKELY AS JOAQUIN MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...VFR CIGS...EXCEPT MVFR IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS AS SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPS. NE WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. G35 KT
ACK.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ANY VFR WILL DROP TO MVFR FROM SE TO NW IN
DEVELOPING RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COULD SEE GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE S COAST WITH MOSTLY VFR NORTH OF THE PIKE. PERIODS OF RAIN
FRI NIGHT...MAINLY S COAST. NE GUSTS TO 25-35 KT...STRONGEST ACROSS
SE NEW ENG COAST.
SUN INTO MON...LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND ON TRACK OF
JOAQUIN. POTENTIAL FOR IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IF JOAQUIN
TRACKS FURTHER N ALONG MID ATLC COAST...BUT A TRACK OFFSHORE WOULD
RESULT IN MOSTLY VFR AND MINIMAL WIND IMPACTS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. FOR
TODAY ANTICIPATE GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS WHICH WILL HELP BUILD SEAS TO 8-
10 FEET. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS
WILL REACH ABOVE 35 KTS AND THUS HAVE ISSUED/EXTENDED GALES FOR ALL
OF THE WATERS. CONTINUED SCA FOR BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY
AS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. ANTICIPATE GALES WARNING TO BE EXTENDED INTO
THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NE GALES WITH GUSTS 35-40
KT. SEAS 10-15 FT OUTER WATERS.
SUN INTO MON...LOW CONFIDENCE. A CONTINUATION OF E/NE WINDS ARE
LIKELY BUT MAGNITUDE OF WINDS AND SEAS AND EXTENT OF RAINFALL WILL
DEPEND ON TRACK OF JOAQUIN WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TODAY...STIFFENING NE FLOW TODAY WILL BE REFLECTED IN AN INCREASING
STORM SURGE ALONG THE MA E COAST...PROBABLY RISING TO BETWEEN 1.0
AND 1.5 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THE POSITIVE TIDAL
DEPARTURE IN ADDITION TO A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL LIKELY SET
THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE MA E COAST
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. SEAS WILL BE
BUILDING JUST OFFSHORE TO PERHAPS 8 TO 10 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON. DUE
TO SOME WAVE ACTION AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH WATER LEVELS...SOME
EROSION IS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERIZED AS
SEVERE.
TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE THE 1.0 TO 1.5 SURGE TO PERSIST ALONG THE MA E
COAST BUT TONIGHT`S ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS NOT AS HIGH AS THE
AFTERNOON TIDE AND ANTICIPATE JUST A FEW POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.
FRI...PERSISTENT NE FLOW MAY CAUSE THE SURGE TO RISE A TAD MORE AND
BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.7 FEET ALONG THE MA E COAST DURING
THE FRI AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THIS ON TOP OF THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE AND WAVES OF 8 TO 12 FEET JUST OFFSHORE MAY CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE REACHES OF THE MA EAST
COAST. HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO AVOID
DOUBLE HEADLINES. DAY CREW WILL NEED TO ISSUE AFTER TODAYS HIGH
TIDE.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES GRADUALLY LOWER
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT A PERSISTENT NE OR E FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
SURGE AROUND OR PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN 1.5 FEET ALONG THE E
COAST. IN ADDITION...A SHIFT IN SURFACE FLOW TO BE MORE FROM THE
E OR EVEN ESE IN ADDITION TO THE ARRIVAL OF SWELLS FROM JOAQUIN
MAY SERVE TO INCREASE THE SURGE ALONG SOME S COAST AREAS ENOUGH
FOR THE RISK OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THERE. HOW
MUCH OF AN IMPACT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
JOAQUIN.
DATE / BOSTON HIGHEST TIDE / TIME
THURSDAY OCTOBER 1 / 12.0 FEET / 2:17 PM
FRIDAY OCTOBER 2 / 11.5 FEET / 3:30 PM
SATURDAY OCTOBER 3 / 11.0 FEET / 4:06 PM
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ251.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
931 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE...
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS PUMPED IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND THIS COMBINED WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS TO KEEP THE AREA FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS REMAINED JUST WEST OF OUR AREA AND ALSO TO
OUR EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WHERE THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FUNNELING UP FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN ALONG A INVERTED COAST TROUGH.
THE ANOMALOUS DEEP AND CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR WEST WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL PULL THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE COASTAL TROUGH BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS AREAS
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AND THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS AREAS JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THE LATEST HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
BULK OF OUR AREA WILL RECEIVE VERY LITTLE RAIN OVERNIGHT AND AS A
RESULT WE HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT ACROSS OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES BUT
HAVE STILL MAINTAINED A 30-40% CHANCE FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST ROW OF
COUNTIES...THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AS THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL SET UP NORTH OF OUR REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS 24
HOUR TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH ENOUGH TO SHOW A PERIOD
OF IFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO LOW MVFR CEILINGS BY MID
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL PIVOT TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND BEGIN
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE JOAQUIN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 60 70 59 74 / 30 30 30 30
SSI 62 74 62 74 / 40 50 50 30
JAX 64 76 62 76 / 20 30 20 30
SGJ 65 78 65 77 / 20 20 20 40
GNV 62 78 62 76 / 20 10 10 40
OCF 64 80 63 79 / 20 10 10 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CLAY-COASTAL
DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU-
PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL DUVAL-
COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL DUVAL-
COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
COASTAL GLYNN.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
SHULER/ZIBURA/WALSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1133 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HURRICANE
JOAQUIN WILL BE OFF THE COAST. SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY ON JOAQUIN
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE
HURRICANE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT
IN VERY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST RADAR AT 15Z INDICATING NO RAINFALL IN THE MIDLANDS AT
THE MOMENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL CUT POPS
BACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THRU 03Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE INCREASING
POPS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.
THE MODELS DISPLAY SURFACE TROUGHING JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO
THE NORTH. ALOFT...AN H5 CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD ALABAMA. THE MODELS INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FEATURE
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS WELL. WE LEANED
TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
REMAINING WEAK SO BELIEVE THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN WAS TOO LOW
FOR A FLOOD WATCH TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY
SHOULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE DAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER ALABAMA FRIDAY SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA OR GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST MAY SHIFT INLAND AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE H5
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND ENHANCED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY HIGH AND HAVE A TROPICAL CONNECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JOAQUIN OFF THE COAST. THE NAM AND GFS
DISPLAY VERY HIGH QPF. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF A
HIGH IMPACT HEAVY RAIN EVENT. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BUT WE
HELD OFF ISSUANCE FOR NOW BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER LOW SUPPORTED THE COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER
LIFTING THE UPPER LOW NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. BELIEVE AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE IS THE BEST FORECAST FOR
NOW WITH A DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUIDANCE INDICATING CIGS BECOMING IFR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
NOT MUCH OF THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A
WEDGE SETS UP. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. T. WINDS LATER TODAY WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1243 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
A small patch of stratocu over east central Illinois, with the
majority of ILX under sunny skies. High pressure remains the
dominant feature of the map, with northeasterly winds finally
mixing up and presenting gusts to 20-25 mph on the last ob.
Expecting more cu to develop as midday approaches. Forecast is
going well and no updates are anticipated at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
A large area of high pressure to our north has brought a rather
chilly start to the new month as temperatures have dipped into the
lower 40s over our northern counties as of 200 am. Further
southeast, some mid and high level clouds have kept temperatures
in the middle 50s. The main concern in the short term will be the
extent of cloud cover and their affect on afternoon temps along
with some gusty winds again this afternoon.
An upper level low situated over extreme southern IL this morning
will drift southeast with additional energy forecast to move into
the base of the trof later today helping to intensify the upper
low. The combination of the large cool Canadian high to our north
and the deepening upper level system to our southeast will help
to produce a rather tight pressure gradient over the Midwest which
will result in some gusty winds again today out of the northeast.
In addition, short term models suggest some increase in clouds this
morning from the east with forecast soundings showing a deeper layer
of moisture than what we saw yesterday, this time from about 2500 to
3500 feet. Both the RAP-13 and HRRR models showing the band of
clouds tracking west from Indiana later this morning, affecting
mainly the eastern half of the forecast area. Think the models may
be overdoing the depth of moisture, especially as it tracks west
into the surface ridge axis so not going to go as pessimistic as
the short term models suggest, but we will see more clouds mix in
with the sun than what we had yesterday.
Forecast soundings also suggest prevailing northeast winds of 12 to
17 kts with gusts around 25 kts at times later this morning thru
most of the afternoon. Most models indicate 850 temps a bit lower
than what we saw yesterday which should yield afternoon temperatures
mostly in the mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
00Z forecast models continue to deepen upper level trof over the
lower TN/OH river valleys southward into a cutoff low over AL and FL
panhandle Thu night into Friday. This trough will influence the
track of major hurricane Joaquin with winds up to 120 mph and near
the eastern Bahamas. HPC official track of hurricane is on a more
northerly track to near the mid Atlantic coast by Sunday night into
Monday. The 00Z ECMWF model continues to have a more eastern track
of hurricane out to sea this weekend. The 00Z GFS is further west
track but has trended a bit further east toward NJ/NYC area by
Monday. GEM model brings hurricane into NC Sat night. So models
still differ greatly on track of hurricane and still awaiting
evolution of deepening upper level trof/cutoff low into the
southeast states. Most models show just light patches of qpf over
eastern IL Fri into Sunday morning though NAM is wetter over IL and
an outlier and not followed. Did not make too many adjustments to
forecast through this weekend, though did add more cloud cover and a
bit cooler highs in 60s and elevated lows/dewpoints slightly from
Friday night through Sunday night. Breezy northeast winds to
continue next few days with gusts in the 20-30 mph range during
daytime period.
Weak high pressure ridge builds into IL Monday providing more
sunshine and lighter winds and a bit milder highs in the lower 70s.
Temps continue to moderate into low to mid 70s Tue and mid to upper
70s Wed with increasing southerly flow on back side of high pressure
ridge moving into the mid Atlantic states. Chances of rain showers
during middle of next week, starting over IL river valley Tue night
and into central IL Wed and southeast IL Wed night/Thu as a cold
front tracks into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Cirrus field at around 4 kft this afternoon, clearing out near
sunset with loss of heat of day. Northeasterly winds will continue
through the day and somewhat gusty as winds from the midlevels mix
down. Gusts will ease with sunset, but remain in the 12-15kt range
overnight out of the northeast. VFR throughout.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Huettl
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1059 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
A small patch of stratocu over east central Illinois, with the
majority of ILX under sunny skies. High pressure remains the
dominant feature of the map, with northeasterly winds finally
mixing up and presenting gusts to 20-25 mph on the last ob.
Expecting more cu to develop as midday approaches. Forecast is
going well and no updates are anticipated at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
A large area of high pressure to our north has brought a rather
chilly start to the new month as temperatures have dipped into the
lower 40s over our northern counties as of 200 am. Further
southeast, some mid and high level clouds have kept temperatures
in the middle 50s. The main concern in the short term will be the
extent of cloud cover and their affect on afternoon temps along
with some gusty winds again this afternoon.
An upper level low situated over extreme southern IL this morning
will drift southeast with additional energy forecast to move into
the base of the trof later today helping to intensify the upper
low. The combination of the large cool Canadian high to our north
and the deepening upper level system to our southeast will help
to produce a rather tight pressure gradient over the Midwest which
will result in some gusty winds again today out of the northeast.
In addition, short term models suggest some increase in clouds this
morning from the east with forecast soundings showing a deeper layer
of moisture than what we saw yesterday, this time from about 2500 to
3500 feet. Both the RAP-13 and HRRR models showing the band of
clouds tracking west from Indiana later this morning, affecting
mainly the eastern half of the forecast area. Think the models may
be overdoing the depth of moisture, especially as it tracks west
into the surface ridge axis so not going to go as pessimistic as
the short term models suggest, but we will see more clouds mix in
with the sun than what we had yesterday.
Forecast soundings also suggest prevailing northeast winds of 12 to
17 kts with gusts around 25 kts at times later this morning thru
most of the afternoon. Most models indicate 850 temps a bit lower
than what we saw yesterday which should yield afternoon temperatures
mostly in the mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
00Z forecast models continue to deepen upper level trof over the
lower TN/OH river valleys southward into a cutoff low over AL and FL
panhandle Thu night into Friday. This trough will influence the
track of major hurricane Joaquin with winds up to 120 mph and near
the eastern Bahamas. HPC official track of hurricane is on a more
northerly track to near the mid Atlantic coast by Sunday night into
Monday. The 00Z ECMWF model continues to have a more eastern track
of hurricane out to sea this weekend. The 00Z GFS is further west
track but has trended a bit further east toward NJ/NYC area by
Monday. GEM model brings hurricane into NC Sat night. So models
still differ greatly on track of hurricane and still awaiting
evolution of deepening upper level trof/cutoff low into the
southeast states. Most models show just light patches of qpf over
eastern IL Fri into Sunday morning though NAM is wetter over IL and
an outlier and not followed. Did not make too many adjustments to
forecast through this weekend, though did add more cloud cover and a
bit cooler highs in 60s and elevated lows/dewpoints slightly from
Friday night through Sunday night. Breezy northeast winds to
continue next few days with gusts in the 20-30 mph range during
daytime period.
Weak high pressure ridge builds into IL Monday providing more
sunshine and lighter winds and a bit milder highs in the lower 70s.
Temps continue to moderate into low to mid 70s Tue and mid to upper
70s Wed with increasing southerly flow on back side of high pressure
ridge moving into the mid Atlantic states. Chances of rain showers
during middle of next week, starting over IL river valley Tue night
and into central IL Wed and southeast IL Wed night/Thu as a cold
front tracks into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
A few more clouds expected over the area today than what we saw
yesterday, but it appears any cigs should be in the VFR category.
A large area of high pressure to our north will continue to bring
a gusty northeast flow to the region today. Forecast soundings
combined with surface and satellite data suggest a band of low
VFR cigs will be possible at times today, especially at KCMI,
KBMI and KDEC as the moisture wraps back to the west and southwest
out of Indiana. As a result, will include a scattered group at
around 3500-4000 feet at or just after 15z most areas. We should
see northeast winds of 12 to 17 kts today with some gusts around
25 kts at times, especially at KBMI, KDEC and KCMI. Look for the
gusts to start to diminish around 00z with a prevailing northeast
wind overnight at 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Huettl
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
617 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
A large area of high pressure to our north has brought a rather
chilly start to the new month as temperatures have dipped into the
lower 40s over our northern counties as of 200 am. Further
southeast, some mid and high level clouds have kept temperatures
in the middle 50s. The main concern in the short term will be the
extent of cloud cover and their affect on afternoon temps along
with some gusty winds again this afternoon.
An upper level low situated over extreme southern IL this morning
will drift southeast with additional energy forecast to move into
the base of the trof later today helping to intensify the upper
low. The combination of the large cool Canadian high to our north
and the deepening upper level system to our southeast will help
to produce a rather tight pressure gradient over the Midwest which
will result in some gusty winds again today out of the northeast.
In addition, short term models suggest some increase in clouds this
morning from the east with forecast soundings showing a deeper layer
of moisture than what we saw yesterday, this time from about 2500 to
3500 feet. Both the RAP-13 and HRRR models showing the band of
clouds tracking west from Indiana later this morning, affecting
mainly the eastern half of the forecast area. Think the models may
be overdoing the depth of moisture, especially as it tracks west
into the surface ridge axis so not going to go as pessimistic as
the short term models suggest, but we will see more clouds mix in
with the sun than what we had yesterday.
Forecast soundings also suggest prevailing northeast winds of 12 to
17 kts with gusts around 25 kts at times later this morning thru
most of the afternoon. Most models indicate 850 temps a bit lower
than what we saw yesterday which should yield afternoon temperatures
mostly in the mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
00Z forecast models continue to deepen upper level trof over the
lower TN/OH river valleys southward into a cutoff low over AL and FL
panhandle Thu night into Friday. This trough will influence the
track of major hurricane Joaquin with winds up to 120 mph and near
the eastern Bahamas. HPC official track of hurricane is on a more
northerly track to near the mid Atlantic coast by Sunday night into
Monday. The 00Z ECMWF model continues to have a more eastern track
of hurricane out to sea this weekend. The 00Z GFS is further west
track but has trended a bit further east toward NJ/NYC area by
Monday. GEM model brings hurricane into NC Sat night. So models
still differ greatly on track of hurricane and still awaiting
evolution of deepening upper level trof/cutoff low into the
southeast states. Most models show just light patches of qpf over
eastern IL Fri into Sunday morning though NAM is wetter over IL and
an outlier and not followed. Did not make too many adjustments to
forecast through this weekend, though did add more cloud cover and a
bit cooler highs in 60s and elevated lows/dewpoints slightly from
Friday night through Sunday night. Breezy northeast winds to
continue next few days with gusts in the 20-30 mph range during
daytime period.
Weak high pressure ridge builds into IL Monday providing more
sunshine and lighter winds and a bit milder highs in the lower 70s.
Temps continue to moderate into low to mid 70s Tue and mid to upper
70s Wed with increasing southerly flow on back side of high pressure
ridge moving into the mid Atlantic states. Chances of rain showers
during middle of next week, starting over IL river valley Tue night
and into central IL Wed and southeast IL Wed night/Thu as a cold
front trackes into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
A few more clouds expected over the area today than what we saw
yesterday, but it appears any cigs should be in the VFR category.
A large area of high pressure to our north will continue to bring
a gusty northeast flow to the region today. Forecast soundings
combined with surface and satellite data suggest a band of low
VFR cigs will be possible at times today, especially at KCMI,
KBMI and KDEC as the moisture wraps back to the west and southwest
out of Indiana. As a result, will include a scattered group at
around 3500-4000 feet at or just after 15z most areas. We should
see northeast winds of 12 to 17 kts today with some gusts around
25 kts at times, especially at KBMI, KDEC and KCMI. Look for the
gusts to start to diminish around 00z with a prevailing northeast
wind overnight at 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Huettl
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
A large area of high pressure to our north has brought a rather
chilly start to the new month as temperatures have dipped into the
lower 40s over our northern counties as of 200 am. Further
southeast, some mid and high level clouds have kept temperatures
in the middle 50s. The main concern in the short term will be the
extent of cloud cover and their affect on afternoon temps along
with some gusty winds again this afternoon.
An upper level low situated over extreme southern IL this morning
will drift southeast with additional energy forecast to move into
the base of the trof later today helping to intensify the upper
low. The combination of the large cool Canadian high to our north
and the deepening upper level system to our southeast will help
to produce a rather tight pressure gradient over the Midwest which
will result in some gusty winds again today out of the northeast.
In addition, short term models suggest some increase in clouds this
morning from the east with forecast soundings showing a deeper layer
of moisture than what we saw yesterday, this time from about 2500 to
3500 feet. Both the RAP-13 and HRRR models showing the band of
clouds tracking west from Indiana later this morning, affecting
mainly the eastern half of the forecast area. Think the models may
be overdoing the depth of moisture, especially as it tracks west
into the surface ridge axis so not going to go as pessimistic as
the short term models suggest, but we will see more clouds mix in
with the sun than what we had yesterday.
Forecast soundings also suggest prevailing northeast winds of 12 to
17 kts with gusts around 25 kts at times later this morning thru
most of the afternoon. Most models indicate 850 temps a bit lower
than what we saw yesterday which should yield afternoon temperatures
mostly in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
00Z forecast models continue to deepen upper level trof over the
lower TN/OH river valleys southward into a cutoff low over AL and FL
panhandle Thu night into Friday. This trough will influence the
track of major hurricane Joaquin with winds up to 120 mph and near
the eastern Bahamas. HPC official track of hurricane is on a more
northerly track to near the mid Atlantic coast by Sunday night into
Monday. The 00Z ECMWF model continues to have a more eastern track
of hurricane out to sea this weekend. The 00Z GFS is further west
track but has trended a bit further east toward NJ/NYC area by
Monday. GEM model brings hurricane into NC Sat night. So models
still differ greatly on track of hurricane and still awaiting
evolution of deepening upper level trof/cutoff low into the
southeast states. Most models show just light patches of qpf over
eastern IL Fri into Sunday morning though NAM is wetter over IL and
an outlier and not followed. Did not make too many adjustments to
forecast through this weekend, though did add more cloud cover and a
bit cooler highs in 60s and elevated lows/dewpoints slightly from
Friday night through Sunday night. Breezy northeast winds to
continue next few days with gusts in the 20-30 mph range during
daytime period.
Weak high pressure ridge builds into IL Monday providing more
sunshine and lighter winds and a bit milder highs in the lower 70s.
Temps continue to moderate into low to mid 70s Tue and mid to upper
70s Wed with increasing southerly flow on back side of high pressure
ridge moving into the mid Atlantic states. Chances of rain showers
during middle of next week, starting over IL river valley Tue night
and into central IL Wed and southeast IL Wed night/Thu as a cold
front trackes into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
High pressure centered just NW of Illinois will provide VFR
conditions and nearly cloud free skies the next 24 hours. The
pressure difference between the surface high and an elongated
area of low pressure along the East Coast will keep northeast
winds in the 10-14kt range the rest of the night. Sustained winds
are now looking to climb into the 15-20kt range by 15z and
continue through the day. Wind gusts will be frequently be near
23-25kt. Wind gusts will diminish by 03z, but sustained winds
will remain 13-15kt through Thursday evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1202 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level
ridge of high pressure transitioning eastward across the Central
and Southern Rockies. Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough of
low pressure is pushing ashore into northern and central
California. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure
remains situated across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest
creating a southeasterly upslope flow across western Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Water vapor loop and RAP analysis overnight showed an amplifying
ridge axis in the mid-upper troposphere across the Desert Southwest
and the Southern Rockies. A plume of mid and high level moisture was
rounding the northern periphery of the ridge across the
Intermountain West into the adjacent High Plains. A surface ridge
axis remained a fixture across the Eastern Plains into the Upper
Midwest region with influence continuing across our portion of the
world in southwest Kansas. Light easterly upslope flow will continue
today, along with the cool and fairly moist airmass. We will likely
see a swath of stratus clouds redevelop in the 09-12z time frame
early this morning with stratus continuing through the day across
portions of southwest KS...much like yesterday. We will carry some
20-30 POPs across mainly south-central KS as short term models
indicate some convective QPF in a weak zone of mid level
deformation. Nothing of significance is expected, however. We
lowered the forecast highs into the lower-mid 60s across a good
chunk of the area, using the NAM12, HiRes Nested 4km NAM, and WRF-
ARW blended solution. The extreme southwest should touch the warm
sector with the stratus cover just to their northeast. Highs in the
mid to upper 70s are likely from Elkhart to Johnson to Liberal.
.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Cool and moist weather will continue to be the theme through the
weekend. The best chance for widespread precipitation still appears
to be Friday Night into Saturday as a rather robust shortwave trough
ejects northeast across Colorado. this will provide some warm
frontogenesis in the 800-700mb layer across western Kansas with all
three major global spectral model solutions (GFS, ECMWF, GEM) all
showing a decent QPF signal with event total QPF amounts in the two
to four-tenths range. The rain on Saturday will certainly keep
temperatures quite cool, and daytime highs were lowered down into
the mid 50s for most of the forecast area.
This initial system will exist the region late Saturday, but we will
remain in a southwest flow pattern with the remnant airmass holding
in place (although a bit modified by Sunday with 850mb temperatures
back into the 12-15C territory). Another even more robust upper low
is now shown by the "Big 3" global models entering the West early
next week. Southerly flow will strengthen ahead of this larger scale
storm system across western Kansas, allowing us to finally erode
this cool airmass away. By Tuesday, though, the system is shown by
the "Big 3" consensus to show signs of weakening and become
positively tilted -- not favorable for a decent precipitation event.
That being said, by mid next week, the ECMWF shows another jet
streak coming in off the Pacific helping re-energize the upper low
as it approaches the High Plains, leading to a nice precipitation
event. At +168hr though, this solution must be taken with a grain
of salt. Nevertheless, an active southern branch of the polar jet
appears to be setting up across our latitude, so there`s at
least some hope for additional precipitation next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Lingering MVFR/IFR cigs at KGCK and KDDC will become VFR joining
KHYS toward late afternoon as prevailing low level stratus slowly
lifts through the day. However, MVFR/IFR cigs may be possible once
again late tonight as high relative humidity and a southeasterly
upslope flow across western Kansas persists. Winds will remain
southeasterly 5 to 15kt through the period with a broad area of
high pressure remaining locked in across the Great Lakes and Upper
Midwest.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 51 60 46 / 10 30 40 60
GCK 66 51 58 45 / 10 30 40 60
EHA 80 53 58 48 / 10 30 40 50
LBL 71 53 61 47 / 10 30 40 60
HYS 65 50 62 46 / 10 20 40 60
P28 65 51 65 49 / 30 20 30 50
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
907 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level
ridge of high pressure transitioning eastward across the Central
and Southern Rockies. Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough of
low pressure is pushing ashore into northern and central
California. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure
remains situated across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest
creating a southeasterly upslope flow across western Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Water vapor loop and RAP analysis overnight showed an amplifying
ridge axis in the mid-upper troposphere across the Desert Southwest
and the Southern Rockies. A plume of mid and high level moisture was
rounding the northern periphery of the ridge across the
Intermountain West into the adjacent High Plains. A surface ridge
axis remained a fixture across the Eastern Plains into the Upper
Midwest region with influence continuing across our portion of the
world in southwest Kansas. Light easterly upslope flow will continue
today, along with the cool and fairly moist airmass. We will likely
see a swath of stratus clouds redevelop in the 09-12z time frame
early this morning with stratus continuing through the day across
portions of southwest KS...much like yesterday. We will carry some
20-30 POPs across mainly south-central KS as short term models
indicate some convective QPF in a weak zone of mid level
deformation. Nothing of significance is expected, however. We
lowered the forecast highs into the lower-mid 60s across a good
chunk of the area, using the NAM12, HiRes Nested 4km NAM, and WRF-
ARW blended solution. The extreme southwest should touch the warm
sector with the stratus cover just to their northeast. Highs in the
mid to upper 70s are likely from Elkhart to Johnson to Liberal.
.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Cool and moist weather will continue to be the theme through the
weekend. The best chance for widespread precipitation still appears
to be Friday Night into Saturday as a rather robust shortwave trough
ejects northeast across Colorado. this will provide some warm
frontogenesis in the 800-700mb layer across western Kansas with all
three major global spectral model solutions (GFS, ECMWF, GEM) all
showing a decent QPF signal with event total QPF amounts in the two
to four-tenths range. The rain on Saturday will certainly keep
temperatures quite cool, and daytime highs were lowered down into
the mid 50s for most of the forecast area.
This initial system will exist the region late Saturday, but we will
remain in a southwest flow pattern with the remnant airmass holding
in place (although a bit modified by Sunday with 850mb temperatures
back into the 12-15C territory). Another even more robust upper low
is now shown by the "Big 3" global models entering the West early
next week. Southerly flow will strengthen ahead of this larger scale
storm system across western Kansas, allowing us to finally erode
this cool airmass away. By Tuesday, though, the system is shown by
the "Big 3" consensus to show signs of weakening and become
positively tilted -- not favorable for a decent precipitation event.
That being said, by mid next week, the ECMWF shows another jet
streak coming in off the Pacific helping re-energize the upper low
as it approaches the High Plains, leading to a nice precipitation
event. At +168hr though, this solution must be taken with a grain
of salt. Nevertheless, an active southern branch of the polar jet
appears to be setting up across our latitude, so there`s at
least some hope for additional precipitation next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
MVFR conditions are expected early this morning with overcast
conditions AOA030 and lowered visibilities at the surface. Winds
will generally be from the southeast around 08 knots this morning
increasing to around 12 knots this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 51 62 46 / 10 20 40 60
GCK 66 51 59 45 / 10 30 40 50
EHA 80 53 59 48 / 10 10 40 40
LBL 71 53 58 47 / 10 20 40 60
HYS 65 50 65 46 / 20 10 40 50
P28 65 51 66 49 / 30 10 30 50
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Water vapor loop and RAP analysis overnight showed an amplifying
ridge axis in the mid-upper troposphere across the Desert Southwest
and the Southern Rockies. A plume of mid and high level moisture was
rounding the northern periphery of the ridge across the
Intermountain West into the adjacent High Plains. A surface ridge
axis remained a fixture across the Eastern Plains into the Upper
Midwest region with influence continuing across our portion of the
world in southwest Kansas. Light easterly upslope flow will continue
today, along with the cool and fairly moist airmass. We will likely
see a swath of stratus clouds redevelop in the 09-12z time frame
early this morning with stratus continuing through the day across
portions of southwest KS...much like yesterday. We will carry some
20-30 POPs across mainly south-central KS as short term models
indicate some convective QPF in a weak zone of mid level
deformation. Nothing of significance is expected, however. We
lowered the forecast highs into the lower-mid 60s across a good
chunk of the area, using the NAM12, HiRes Nested 4km NAM, and WRF-
ARW blended solution. The extreme southwest should touch the warm
sector with the stratus cover just to their northeast. Highs in the
mid to upper 70s are likely from Elkhart to Johnson to Liberal.
.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Cool and moist weather will continue to be the theme through the
weekend. The best chance for widespread precipitation still appears
to be Friday Night into Saturday as a rather robust shortwave trough
ejects northeast across Colorado. this will provide some warm
frontogenesis in the 800-700mb layer across western Kansas with all
three major global spectral model solutions (GFS, ECMWF, GEM) all
showing a decent QPF signal with event total QPF amounts in the two
to four-tenths range. The rain on Saturday will certainly keep
temperatures quite cool, and daytime highs were lowered down into
the mid 50s for most of the forecast area.
This initial system will exist the region late Saturday, but we will
remain in a southwest flow pattern with the remnant airmass holding
in place (although a bit modified by Sunday with 850mb temperatures
back into the 12-15C territory). Another even more robust upper low
is now shown by the "Big 3" global models entering the West early
next week. Southerly flow will strengthen ahead of this larger scale
storm system across western Kansas, allowing us to finally erode
this cool airmass away. By Tuesday, though, the system is shown by
the "Big 3" consensus to show signs of weakening and become
positively tilted -- not favorable for a decent precipitation event.
That being said, by mid next week, the ECMWF shows another jet
streak coming in off the Pacific helping re-energize the upper low
as it approaches the High Plains, leading to a nice precipitation
event. At +168hr though, this solution must be taken with a grain
of salt. Nevertheless, an active southern branch of the polar jet
appears to be setting up across our latitude, so there`s at
least some hope for additional precipitation next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
MVFR conditions are expected early this morning with overcast
conditions AOA030 and lowered visibilities at the surface. Winds
will generally be from the southeast around 08 knots this morning
increasing to around 12 knots this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 51 62 46 / 10 20 40 60
GCK 66 51 59 45 / 10 30 40 50
EHA 80 53 59 48 / 10 10 40 40
LBL 71 53 58 47 / 10 20 40 60
HYS 65 50 65 46 / 20 10 40 50
P28 65 51 66 49 / 30 10 30 50
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
344 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
...Updated Long Term Section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Water vapor loop and RAP analysis overnight showed an amplifying
ridge axis in the mid-upper troposphere across the Desert Southwest
and the Southern Rockies. A plume of mid and high level moisture was
rounding the northern periphery of the ridge across the
Intermountain West into the adjacent High Plains. A surface ridge
axis remained a fixture across the Eastern Plains into the Upper
Midwest region with influence continuing across our portion of the
world in southwest Kansas. Light easterly upslope flow will continue
today, along with the cool and fairly moist airmass. We will likely
see a swath of stratus clouds redevelop in the 09-12z time frame
early this morning with stratus continuing through the day across
portions of southwest KS...much like yesterday. We will carry some
20-30 POPs across mainly south-central KS as short term models
indicate some convective QPF in a weak zone of mid level
deformation. Nothing of significance is expected, however. We
lowered the forecast highs into the lower-mid 60s across a good
chunk of the area, using the NAM12, HiRes Nested 4km NAM, and WRF-
ARW blended solution. The extreme southwest should touch the warm
sector with the stratus cover just to their northeast. Highs in the
mid to upper 70s are likely from Elkhart to Johnson to Liberal.
.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Cool and moist weather will continue to be the theme through the
weekend. The best chance for widespread precipitation still appears
to be Friday Night into Saturday as a rather robust shortwave trough
ejects northeast across Colorado. this will provide some warm
frontogenesis in the 800-700mb layer across western Kansas with all
three major global spectral model solutions (GFS, ECMWF, GEM) all
showing a decent QPF signal with event total QPF amounts in the two
to four-tenths range. The rain on Saturday will certainly keep
temperatures quite cool, and daytime highs were lowered down into
the mid 50s for most of the forecast area.
This initial system will exist the region late Saturday, but we will
remain in a southwest flow pattern with the remnant airmass holding
in place (although a bit modified by Sunday with 850mb temperatures
back into the 12-15C territory). Another even more robust upper low
is now shown by the "Big 3" global models entering the West early
next week. Southerly flow will strengthen ahead of this larger scale
storm system across western Kansas, allowing us to finally erode
this cool airmass away. By Tuesday, though, the system is shown by
the "Big 3" consensus to show signs of weakening and become
positively tilted -- not favorable for a decent precipitation event.
That being said, by mid next week, the ECMWF shows another jet
streak coming in off the Pacific helping re-energize the upper low
as it approaches the High Plains, leading to a nice precipitation
event. At +168hr though, this solution must be taken with a grain
of salt. Nevertheless, an active southern branch of the polar jet
appears to be setting up across our latitude, so there`s at
least some hope for additional precipitation next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Ceilings will continue to be a challenge at all three terminals
(GCK, DDC, HYS). The greatest confidence in IFR/LIFR stratus and fog
redevelopment is at GCK and DDC where a 4 or 5 hour window of
restricted ceiling/visibility can be expected. The ceiling will
gradually rise through MVFR later on in the morning and likely into
the VFR range by mid to late afternoon. GCK may see the IFR or MVFR
hanging on the longest this morning through afternoon. HYS may see
VFR by mid to late morning as they should be on the edge of the
stratus field.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 51 62 46 / 10 20 40 60
GCK 66 51 59 45 / 10 30 40 50
EHA 80 53 59 48 / 10 10 40 40
LBL 71 53 58 47 / 10 20 40 60
HYS 65 50 65 46 / 20 10 40 50
P28 65 51 66 49 / 30 10 30 50
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1247 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
...Updated Short Term and Aviation Sections...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Water vapor loop and RAP analysis overnight showed an amplifying
ridge axis in the mid-upper troposphere across the Desert Southwest
and the Southern Rockies. A plume of mid and high level moisture was
rounding the northern periphery of the ridge across the
Intermountain West into the adjacent High Plains. A surface ridge
axis remained a fixture across the Eastern Plains into the Upper
Midwest region with influence continuing across our portion of the
world in southwest Kansas. Light easterly upslope flow will continue
today, along with the cool and fairly moist airmass. We will likely
see a swath of stratus clouds redevelop in the 09-12z time frame
early this morning with stratus continuing through the day across
portions of southwest KS...much like yesterday. We will carry some
20-30 POPs across mainly south-central KS as short term models
indicate some convective QPF in a weak zone of mid level
deformation. Nothing of significance is expected, however. We
lowered the forecast highs into the lower-mid 60s across a good
chunk of the area, using the NAM12, HiRes Nested 4km NAM, and WRF-
ARW blended solution. The extreme southwest should touch the warm
sector with the stratus cover just to their northeast. Highs in the
mid to upper 70s are likely from Elkhart to Johnson to Liberal.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
Drier conditions are expected during the day Friday as medium range
models indicate upper level ridging moving east across the Western
High Plains. Chances for precip return going into the early part of
the weekend as an upper level trough is projected to push east
across the Great Basin into the Central and Southern Rockies.
Meanwhile, a prevailing southeasterly upslope flow will provide some
lift as a series of H5 vort maxima begin to eject out of the Rockies
into the high plains of western Kansas. Although the strength of the
flow aloft is expected to remain modest at best, showers with a few
rumbles of thunder may be possible Friday night into Saturday.
Conditions are expected to dry out a bit Sunday as the GFS/ECMWF
show upper level ridging redeveloping across the Central and Western
High Plains.
Below normal temperatures are expected Friday as lingering precip
and increased cloud cover limit insolation during much of the day.
Look for highs only up into the 60s(F) Friday afternoon with a
warming trend beginning by early next week as upper level ridging
builds across the Central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Ceilings will continue to be a challenge at all three terminals
(GCK, DDC, HYS). The greatest confidence in IFR/LIFR stratus and fog
redevelopment is at GCK and DDC where a 4 or 5 hour window of
restricted ceiling/visibility can be expected. The ceiling will
gradually rise through MVFR later on in the morning and likely into
the VFR range by mid to late afternoon. GCK may see the IFR or MVFR
hanging on the longest this morning through afternoon. HYS may see
VFR by mid to late morning as they should be on the edge of the
stratus field.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 51 64 47 60 / 20 40 60 60
GCK 51 64 46 60 / 30 40 50 40
EHA 53 73 49 65 / 10 40 50 30
LBL 53 70 48 64 / 20 40 50 40
HYS 50 60 47 56 / 10 40 60 60
P28 51 64 50 62 / 10 30 50 60
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
246 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
High pressure will remain strong over east Canada with a ridge
extension down into the central U.S. Cool/mild NNE flow will
continue across the region in the short term. H5 low will move SE
across the TN valley to the gulf coast then stall. Moisture/clouds
still forecast to move back west with time along with a chance of
showers mainly east 1/3 to 1/2 of the area. Will keep tonight dry
with more clouds east, few west. Chance of showers east sections
starts Friday and lasts into Saturday night. Temps were a blend of
MOS and base model output.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
The medium-range models are in good agreement from Sunday through
the first half of next week, but really diverge by next Thursday.
Overall confidence is pretty high. In general, we can expect dry and
rather mild conditions well into next week.
High pressure aloft will build over the region Sunday, as the
influence of the pesky upper-low finally pushes east of the region.
We did leave in a slight chance in the east Sunday to give the low a
wide berth and blend in with our neighboring forecast offices.
High pressure will be in control both at the surface and aloft to
begin the week. This will result in a warming trend to near normal
levels by Monday and into the lower 80s by Wednesday, and possibly
into Thursday.
The 12Z ECMWF and GFS agree in bringing an upper-level storm system
eastward into the Rockies by the end of the day Wednesday. The
problem is that it is caught within a progressive split flow. The
GFS has been consistently pushing this system eastward into our area
Wednesday night and Thursday, while the ECMWF has been slower to
move it out of the Rockies. The 12Z ECMWF has trended farther south
with the system and now has it over northern Mexico Thursday evening
with continued ridging over our region.
This is not a high confidence scenario, and neither solution can be
ruled out at this time. We will keep a slight chance of showers over
the west Wednesday night and over the entire region Thursday given
the GFS`s consistency, but significant adjustments may ultimately be
necessary. Even if the GFS is close, it does not look like a major
cool down for the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Deck of MVFR clouds from KEVV to KCEY and east of that line with
diurnal CU developing elsewhere. Verified the wind gust forecasts
with some locales at or just above 20 kts. Through the afternoon
the RAP model, which has the best handle on the clouds, pushes the
MVFR cigs SW and diminishes the area with time. However, moisture
is still prevalent 4-6k/ft, so even though we expect improvement
there will still be some bkn cigs VFR, especially west KY. Tonight
there is a temporary decrease in low level moisture. Backed off
winds to around 6-8 kts NNE. We will bring back in lower clouds
but just above MVFR by 12z or so. Winds should become gusty again
from the NNE, some gusts around 20 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1232 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Aviation update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
As expected, clouds had a hard time dispersing. With high pressure
staying situated to the north, and developing low pressure moving
overhead, despite post frontal cool/dry advection, the atmospheric
column as a whole is having a hard time fully dispersing the
clouds. This trend wont be a whole lot better today, with neutral
to negative surface isallobaric tendencies across the south/east.
But across the north/west, positive anomalies are modeled and may
lead to a longer duration of sunshine today.
By 00Z Friday, the evolution of the upper Low across the Tn valley
will help induce an advecting moist tongue that should spell
spotty shower activity in our far southeastern counties...certainly
enough to warrant a slgt chance mention. After sunset, however,
diurnal flare enhanced instability lessens and should just mean
lingering clouds/silent pops for the overnight hours.
Friday-Friday night still looks to be the best chance of rain. By
then, the southward migration of the Low ends up helping sweep
tropical moisture from approaching Joaquin, as far north and west
as the Commonwealth, including basically our eastern half of the
CWA. We`ll have slgt chance-chance mentions ongoing, bumped up
slightly this package as each successive model run has supported a
wetter solution.
Saturday-Saturday night sees the Low migrate far enough to the
south and east to take us out of the PoP picture, even as some
wake high pressure ridging aloft noses into the Mid Ms valley from
the west. The tricky part will be the farthest east/southeast
counties...whether to maintain a slgt mention or silent Pop, which
we`ll leave to press time collab efforts.
While we might see a 70 here or there today, temps will range
through the 60s for highs, mainly, thru the short term. Similarly
isolated 50s notwithstanding, we`ll see predominant 40s for lows.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Although the track of Joaquin to and from the U.S. coastline
continues to be refine by the NHC, the medium range models appear
to phase the upper level trough, currently over WFO PAH, with this
tropical system as it moves toward the east coast.
This situation yields an uncommon reversal from the mean pattern.
Namely, the center of the nation will see a ridge, while
California and the Florida/Georgia coast see low pressure
translate and develop.
For the WFO PAH forecast area, this will mean dry and seasonable
weather through Wednesday morning. From Wednesday onward, the
California low become progressive and moves close to the WFO PAH
forecast area by next Thursday. The model blend forecast leans
toward a slower movement of this system, with the best rain
chances primarily over Southern Illinois and Southeast Missouri
next Thursday. The interplay between the east and west coast lows
and the tropical system will eventually determine the coverga of
weather into the area Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Deck of MVFR clouds from KEVV to KCEY and east of that line with
diurnal CU developing elsewhere. Verified the wind gust forecasts
with some locales at or just above 20 kts. Through the afternoon
the RAP model, which has the best handle on the clouds, pushes the
MVFR cigs SW and diminishes the area with time. However, moisture
is still prevalent 4-6k/ft, so even though we expect improvement
there will still be some bkn cigs VFR, especially west KY. Tonight
there is a temporary decrease in low level moisture. Backed off
winds to around 6-8 kts NNE. We will bring back in lower clouds
but just above MVFR by 12z or so. Winds should become gusty again
from the NNE, some gusts around 20 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
951 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN CROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
947 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTMENTS IN THE POPS WERE IN ORDER AS THE LATEST
RADAR LOOP SHOWED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTY ND INTO CENTRAL AREAS. SATELLITE WV IMAGERY
SHOWED UPPER LOW NEARBY W/SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE NOTED IN THE 01Z
MESO ANALYSIS. NNE WIND IN LLVLS W/SW FLOW ALOFT AIDING IN SOME
WEAK OVERRUNNING AS WELL. KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NAM12 AND
LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL HANDLING THIS SETUP WELL BY THE WAY.
CLOUDS ARE NOW FORECAST TO HANG ON LONG AND THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP
UP OVERNIGHT MINS. THEREFORE, AN ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED THERE AS
WELL W/LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH & WEST. UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
FCST HI TEMPS SAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TDY... WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE SLOWLY WORKING SWRD TOWARD DOWNEAST AREAS
WHICH WILL HOLD ON TO CLD CVR THE LONGEST. WINDS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY LESS THEN TDY. WITH THE CNTR OF THE SFC HIGH APCHG NRN
PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT WITH MCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS...A MORE
DEFINED PATTERN OF RIDGE/VLY RADITIONAL COOLING OVRNGT LOWS SHOULD
EMERGE BY ERLY SUN MORN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE SKIES WILL BE
MCLR FROM EARLIEST IN THE PD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS
EXPECTED. HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE ONLY INDICATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOW VFR TO MVFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES MOST
OF TNGT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO UNLMTD VFR WORKING S TO N ACROSS THE
SITES LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN. AFTWRDS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FROM
SAT AFTN THRU SAT NGT.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTD SCA CONDITIONS XPCTD THRU SAT. ALTHOUGH WE
INDICATE AN END TM OF THE SCA AT 00Z SUN...SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONT OVR THE OUTER MZS050-051 BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED FOR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD AS JUAQUIN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
...COLD WITH FROST INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT BUT
STAYING WARMER ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER UPR LAKES PERSISTS BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROPPED ACROSS MANTIOBA ON WEDNESDAY
HAS LED TO CLUSTER OF SHRA AND TSRA OVER ND THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER MN IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISIPPATE WHILE MOVING TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
HAS BECOME CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY AT 1037MB/30.6 INCHES. RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS TO SOUTHWEST OVER LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN...BUT WEAK
GRADIENT IS STILL PRESENT...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE SFC. RESULT IS
THAT SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST ARE NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE
NIGHT/WED MORNING. LOWEST TEMP AS OF 3 AM EDT IS 27 DEGREES AT THE
FIRE WX RAWS SITES ON THE BARAGA PLAINS AND OVER NORTHERN LUCE
COUNTY. LOWEST TEMP AT HOME WEATHER SITE IS 29 NEAR PEAVY FALLS DAM
IN EASTERN IRON COUNTY...WHILE LOWEST TEMP AT AWOS/ASOS
SITES IS 30 DEGREES AT LAND O LAKES WI.
EAST FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND SOME MOISTURE AROUND 900MB/3KFT
AGL IS RESULTING IN SC/CU CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND MORE SO OVER DOOR PENINSULA JUST TO EAST OF MENOMINEE. RAP AND
GFS WERE NOT AS OVERDONE WITH RH AS NAM/GEM-REGIONAL. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE AS THEY HAVE LAST COUPLE DAYS...TO A SCT-BKN CU DECK IN
THE MORNING AND THEN TO MIX OUT IN THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR IS MIXED
INTO THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. WARMING AT H9 SHOULD ALSO WORK AGAINST
AFTN CLOUD COVER. H85 TEMPS ARE WARMER BY 1-2C THAN WED...BUT LOW-
LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER. THESE OFFSET AND SHOULD
RESULT IN MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WARMEST INTERIOR WEST.
LOWS FOR TONIGHT AND RESULTING FROST POTENTIAL IS TRICKY. GRADIENT
JUST ABOVE SFC TIGHTENS EVEN MORE...AS SEEN IN H95-H925 LAYER. BUT
PWATS ARE MUCH LOWER THAN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST SO THERE COULD
BE GREATER RADIATIONAL COOLING. DID NOT ALTER GOING FORECAST MINS
TOO MUCH INLAND...BUT DID RAISE TEMPS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
INSTEAD OF ISSUING SEPARATE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LIKE LAST TWO
MORNINGS...MENTIONED FROST POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IN GOING STATEMENT
FOR THIS MORNINGS FROST/FREEZE AS EXPECT FROST TONIGHT TO BE MORE
PATCHY. DAYSHIFT CAN ISSUE APPROPRIATE HEADLINE LATER TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL BE TEMPS AS DRY
HI PRES STRETCHING FM SE CANADA INTO THE UPR LKS WL REMAIN DOMINANT.
NEXT BEST SHOT AT PCPN WL BE NEXT TUE/WED AS RDG BREAKS DOWN AND A
MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.
FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS HI AMPLITUDE UPR RDG BUILDS FM THE PLAINS
TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND THEN INTO SE CANADA...SFC HI PRES RDG
STRETCHING FM NEAR JAMES BAY INTO THE UPR LKS WL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY
AND STRENGTHEN. THE DRY AIRMASS UNDER THIS RDG...WITH PWAT IN THE
0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE...WL RESULT IN CONTINUED PCPN FREE WX. ON
FRI...H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK ARND 4C BUT THEN ONLY ARND 2C ON
SAT. WITH THE SOMEWHAT COOLER H85 TEMPS...THERE SHOULD BE MORE
DIURNAL CU ON SAT. BEGINNING ON FRI NGT...MODELS FCST WEAK SHRTWV/
MORE HI LVL MSTR AND HI CLDS WL SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE SE FLOW
ALF ARND UPR RDG CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY. THESE CLDS AND A STEADY E
WIND...WITH H925 WINDS UP TO 15-25 KTS...WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
DROP ON FRI/SAT NGTS AND FROST POTENTIAL. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AN AREA THAT
WL BE MORE SHELTERED FM THE E FLOW. HI TEMPS ON FRI WL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60 BUT THEN PROBABLY ONLY THE MID 50S ON SAT
WITH THE LOWER H85 TEMPS/MORE HI CLDS AND SOME DIURNAL CU.
SUN/MON...ALTHOUGH THE UPR RDG OVER SE CANADA IS FCST TO WEAKEN
DURING THIS TIME AND A ALLOW A TRANSITION TO A MORE WSW FLOW ALF
ALONG THE CNDN BORDER...A SFC HI PRES RDG...ALBEIT A WEAKENING
ONE...IS FCST TO LINGER FM SE CANADA INTO THE UPR LKS. RECENT
ECMWF RUNS HAVE GENERATED SOME PCPN OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF
UPR MI WITH MORE MSTR ROTATING NNWD INTO THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE MOST
OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN HI PRES RDG/DEEP DRY AIR LINGERING FARTHER FM
CLOSED LO OVER THE SE CONUS...FAVOR A DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD EVEN
IF THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HI CLD IS ARND...
SUN NGT COULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER THE SFC RDG AXIS/LIGHT WINDS.
TUE/WED...A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE MORE ZONAL UPR FLOW OVER SRN
CANADA IS FCST TO MOVE E WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/MORE MSTR IN A
WEAKER SRN BRANCH WSW FLOW IN THE CONUS ARE FCST TO APRCH FM THE SW.
WHILE THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT MORE CLDS AND SHOWER
CHCS TO RETURN AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
WARMER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT NGT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE LAKE SUPERIOR THRU SAT AS HIGH PRES IN
SE CANADA RIDGES BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES VCNTY. DURING THIS TIME
WINDS WILL VARY BTWN THE 10-20 KT AND 15-25 KT RANGE. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN...RESULTING IN WINDS
UNDER 20 KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
720 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
...COLD WITH FROST INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT BUT
STAYING WARMER ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER UPR LAKES PERSISTS BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROPPED ACROSS MANTIOBA ON WEDNESDAY
HAS LED TO CLUSTER OF SHRA AND TSRA OVER ND THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER MN IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISIPPATE WHILE MOVING TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
HAS BECOME CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY AT 1037MB/30.6 INCHES. RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS TO SOUTHWEST OVER LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN...BUT WEAK
GRADIENT IS STILL PRESENT...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE SFC. RESULT IS
THAT SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST ARE NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE
NIGHT/WED MORNING. LOWEST TEMP AS OF 3 AM EDT IS 27 DEGREES AT THE
FIRE WX RAWS SITES ON THE BARAGA PLAINS AND OVER NORTHERN LUCE
COUNTY. LOWEST TEMP AT HOME WEATHER SITE IS 29 NEAR PEAVY FALLS DAM
IN EASTERN IRON COUNTY...WHILE LOWEST TEMP AT AWOS/ASOS
SITES IS 30 DEGREES AT LAND O LAKES WI.
EAST FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND SOME MOISTURE AROUND 900MB/3KFT
AGL IS RESULTING IN SC/CU CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND MORE SO OVER DOOR PENINSULA JUST TO EAST OF MENOMINEE. RAP AND
GFS WERE NOT AS OVERDONE WITH RH AS NAM/GEM-REGIONAL. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE AS THEY HAVE LAST COUPLE DAYS...TO A SCT-BKN CU DECK IN
THE MORNING AND THEN TO MIX OUT IN THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR IS MIXED
INTO THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. WARMING AT H9 SHOULD ALSO WORK AGAINST
AFTN CLOUD COVER. H85 TEMPS ARE WARMER BY 1-2C THAN WED...BUT LOW-
LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER. THESE OFFSET AND SHOULD
RESULT IN MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WARMEST INTERIOR WEST.
LOWS FOR TONIGHT AND RESULTING FROST POTENTIAL IS TRICKY. GRADIENT
JUST ABOVE SFC TIGHTENS EVEN MORE...AS SEEN IN H95-H925 LAYER. BUT
PWATS ARE MUCH LOWER THAN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST SO THERE COULD
BE GREATER RADIATIONAL COOLING. DID NOT ALTER GOING FORECAST MINS
TOO MUCH INLAND...BUT DID RAISE TEMPS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
INSTEAD OF ISSUING SEPARATE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LIKE LAST TWO
MORNINGS...MENTIONED FROST POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IN GOING STATEMENT
FOR THIS MORNINGS FROST/FREEZE AS EXPECT FROST TONIGHT TO BE MORE
PATCHY. DAYSHIFT CAN ISSUE APPROPRIATE HEADLINE LATER TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL BE TEMPS AS DRY
HI PRES STRETCHING FM SE CANADA INTO THE UPR LKS WL REMAIN DOMINANT.
NEXT BEST SHOT AT PCPN WL BE NEXT TUE/WED AS RDG BREAKS DOWN AND A
MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.
FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS HI AMPLITUDE UPR RDG BUILDS FM THE PLAINS
TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND THEN INTO SE CANADA...SFC HI PRES RDG
STRETCHING FM NEAR JAMES BAY INTO THE UPR LKS WL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY
AND STRENGTHEN. THE DRY AIRMASS UNDER THIS RDG...WITH PWAT IN THE
0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE...WL RESULT IN CONTINUED PCPN FREE WX. ON
FRI...H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK ARND 4C BUT THEN ONLY ARND 2C ON
SAT. WITH THE SOMEWHAT COOLER H85 TEMPS...THERE SHOULD BE MORE
DIURNAL CU ON SAT. BEGINNING ON FRI NGT...MODELS FCST WEAK SHRTWV/
MORE HI LVL MSTR AND HI CLDS WL SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE SE FLOW
ALF ARND UPR RDG CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY. THESE CLDS AND A STEADY E
WIND...WITH H925 WINDS UP TO 15-25 KTS...WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
DROP ON FRI/SAT NGTS AND FROST POTENTIAL. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AN AREA THAT
WL BE MORE SHELTERED FM THE E FLOW. HI TEMPS ON FRI WL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60 BUT THEN PROBABLY ONLY THE MID 50S ON SAT
WITH THE LOWER H85 TEMPS/MORE HI CLDS AND SOME DIURNAL CU.
SUN/MON...ALTHOUGH THE UPR RDG OVER SE CANADA IS FCST TO WEAKEN
DURING THIS TIME AND A ALLOW A TRANSITION TO A MORE WSW FLOW ALF
ALONG THE CNDN BORDER...A SFC HI PRES RDG...ALBEIT A WEAKENING
ONE...IS FCST TO LINGER FM SE CANADA INTO THE UPR LKS. RECENT
ECMWF RUNS HAVE GENERATED SOME PCPN OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF
UPR MI WITH MORE MSTR ROTATING NNWD INTO THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE MOST
OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN HI PRES RDG/DEEP DRY AIR LINGERING FARTHER FM
CLOSED LO OVER THE SE CONUS...FAVOR A DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD EVEN
IF THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HI CLD IS ARND...
SUN NGT COULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER THE SFC RDG AXIS/LIGHT WINDS.
TUE/WED...A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE MORE ZONAL UPR FLOW OVER SRN
CANADA IS FCST TO MOVE E WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/MORE MSTR IN A
WEAKER SRN BRANCH WSW FLOW IN THE CONUS ARE FCST TO APRCH FM THE SW.
WHILE THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT MORE CLDS AND SHOWER
CHCS TO RETURN AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
WARMER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT NGT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU OFF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
KSAW/KCMX...CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE ABOVE 3000FT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE LAKE SUPERIOR THRU SAT AS HIGH PRES IN
SE CANADA RIDGES BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES VCNTY. DURING THIS TIME
WINDS WILL VARY BTWN THE 10-20 KT AND 15-25 KT RANGE. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN...RESULTING IN WINDS
UNDER 20 KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003-005>007-012>014-085.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
004-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
408 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
...COLD WITH FROST INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT BUT
STAYING WARMER ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER UPR LAKES PERSISTS BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROPPED ACROSS MANTIOBA ON WEDNESDAY
HAS LED TO CLUSTER OF SHRA AND TSRA OVER ND THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER MN IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISIPPATE WHILE MOVING TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
HAS BECOME CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY AT 1037MB/30.6 INCHES. RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS TO SOUTHWEST OVER LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN...BUT WEAK
GRADIENT IS STILL PRESENT...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE SFC. RESULT IS
THAT SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST ARE NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE
NIGHT/WED MORNING. LOWEST TEMP AS OF 3 AM EDT IS 27 DEGREES AT THE
FIRE WX RAWS SITES ON THE BARAGA PLAINS AND OVER NORTHERN LUCE
COUNTY. LOWEST TEMP AT HOME WEATHER SITE IS 29 NEAR PEAVY FALLS DAM
IN EASTERN IRON COUNTY...WHILE LOWEST TEMP AT AWOS/ASOS
SITES IS 30 DEGREES AT LAND O LAKES WI.
EAST FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND SOME MOISTURE AROUND 900MB/3KFT
AGL IS RESULTING IN SC/CU CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND MORE SO OVER DOOR PENINSULA JUST TO EAST OF MENOMINEE. RAP AND
GFS WERE NOT AS OVERDONE WITH RH AS NAM/GEM-REGIONAL. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE AS THEY HAVE LAST COUPLE DAYS...TO A SCT-BKN CU DECK IN
THE MORNING AND THEN TO MIX OUT IN THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR IS MIXED
INTO THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. WARMING AT H9 SHOULD ALSO WORK AGAINST
AFTN CLOUD COVER. H85 TEMPS ARE WARMER BY 1-2C THAN WED...BUT LOW-
LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER. THESE OFFSET AND SHOULD
RESULT IN MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WARMEST INTERIOR WEST.
LOWS FOR TONIGHT AND RESULTING FROST POTENTIAL IS TRICKY. GRADIENT
JUST ABOVE SFC TIGHTENS EVEN MORE...AS SEEN IN H95-H925 LAYER. BUT
PWATS ARE MUCH LOWER THAN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST SO THERE COULD
BE GREATER RADIATIONAL COOLING. DID NOT ALTER GOING FORECAST MINS
TOO MUCH INLAND...BUT DID RAISE TEMPS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
INSTEAD OF ISSUING SEPARATE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LIKE LAST TWO
MORNINGS...MENTIONED FROST POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IN GOING STATEMENT
FOR THIS MORNINGS FROST/FREEZE AS EXPECT FROST TONIGHT TO BE MORE
PATCHY. DAYSHIFT CAN ISSUE APPROPRIATE HEADLINE LATER TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL BE TEMPS AS DRY
HI PRES STRETCHING FM SE CANADA INTO THE UPR LKS WL REMAIN DOMINANT.
NEXT BEST SHOT AT PCPN WL BE NEXT TUE/WED AS RDG BREAKS DOWN AND A
MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.
FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS HI AMPLITUDE UPR RDG BUILDS FM THE PLAINS
TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND THEN INTO SE CANADA...SFC HI PRES RDG
STRETCHING FM NEAR JAMES BAY INTO THE UPR LKS WL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY
AND STRENGTHEN. THE DRY AIRMASS UNDER THIS RDG...WITH PWAT IN THE
0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE...WL RESULT IN CONTINUED PCPN FREE WX. ON
FRI...H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK ARND 4C BUT THEN ONLY ARND 2C ON
SAT. WITH THE SOMEWHAT COOLER H85 TEMPS...THERE SHOULD BE MORE
DIURNAL CU ON SAT. BEGINNING ON FRI NGT...MODELS FCST WEAK SHRTWV/
MORE HI LVL MSTR AND HI CLDS WL SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE SE FLOW
ALF ARND UPR RDG CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY. THESE CLDS AND A STEADY E
WIND...WITH H925 WINDS UP TO 15-25 KTS...WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
DROP ON FRI/SAT NGTS AND FROST POTENTIAL. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AN AREA THAT
WL BE MORE SHELTERED FM THE E FLOW. HI TEMPS ON FRI WL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60 BUT THEN PROBABLY ONLY THE MID 50S ON SAT
WITH THE LOWER H85 TEMPS/MORE HI CLDS AND SOME DIURNAL CU.
SUN/MON...ALTHOUGH THE UPR RDG OVER SE CANADA IS FCST TO WEAKEN
DURING THIS TIME AND A ALLOW A TRANSITION TO A MORE WSW FLOW ALF
ALONG THE CNDN BORDER...A SFC HI PRES RDG...ALBEIT A WEAKENING
ONE...IS FCST TO LINGER FM SE CANADA INTO THE UPR LKS. RECENT
ECMWF RUNS HAVE GENERATED SOME PCPN OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF
UPR MI WITH MORE MSTR ROTATING NNWD INTO THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE MOST
OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN HI PRES RDG/DEEP DRY AIR LINGERING FARTHER FM
CLOSED LO OVER THE SE CONUS...FAVOR A DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD EVEN
IF THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HI CLD IS ARND...
SUN NGT COULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER THE SFC RDG AXIS/LIGHT WINDS.
TUE/WED...A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE MORE ZONAL UPR FLOW OVER SRN
CANADA IS FCST TO MOVE E WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/MORE MSTR IN A
WEAKER SRN BRANCH WSW FLOW IN THE CONUS ARE FCST TO APRCH FM THE SW.
WHILE THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT MORE CLDS AND SHOWER
CHCS TO RETURN AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
WARMER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT NGT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU OFF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING...POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING KSAW/KCMX...CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE ABOVE 3000FT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE LAKE SUPERIOR THRU SAT AS HIGH PRES IN
SE CANADA RIDGES BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES VCNTY. DURING THIS TIME
WINDS WILL VARY BTWN THE 10-20 KT AND 15-25 KT RANGE. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN...RESULTING IN WINDS
UNDER 20 KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003-005>007-012>014-085.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
004-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
841 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE...
WE ARE ONLY MAKING MINOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO TONIGHT/S FORECAST
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR AND MODEL DATA. THE GENERAL IDEA
OF INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE
NEXT 6 HOURS REMAINS ON TRACK. WE DID EXTEND THE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT AND NORTH CENTRAL
WY BASED ON UPSTREAM LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AS OF MID EVENING.
ONE QUESTION THAT WE/LL HAVE TO TRY AND ANSWER FOR THE MORNING
FORECAST RELEASE IS IF AND WHERE A DRY SLOT MAY DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MT AND POSSIBLY NORTH CENTRAL WY SATURDAY. RECENT
HRRR SIMULATIONS AND THE 00 UTC NAM SUGGEST PLACES LIKE BROADUS
MAY END UP BEING RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.
EITHER WAY THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BILLINGS METRO AREA WILL BE IN
FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER
THE HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CITY LIKE IN RECENT HRRR SIMULATIONS...OR
JUST EAST OF TOWN TOWARD HYSHAM LIKE THE 00 UTC NAM AND OTHER
LOWER-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FROM 12 AND 18 UTC SUGGESTED. SCHULTZ
PREVIOUS UPDATE...ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM SHERIDAN AND HARDIN TO HYSHAM. THIS MOVE WAS IN RESPECT TO
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING BEING OBSERVED AS OF 2345 UTC IN BIG HORN
AND FALLON COUNTIES...AS WELL AS UPSTREAM NEAR CASPER...WY. THE
PRECIPITATION NEAR CASPER IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER
BATCH OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE VERTICAL MOTION THAT WILL BRING MOISTURE
TO NORTH CENTRAL WY AND SOUTHEASTERN MT BY LATE EVENING AND OVER-
NIGHT. WE DID ADJUST EVENING POPS FROM SHERIDAN THROUGH BROADUS
AND EKALAKA TO ADVERTISE AN INCREASING RAIN CHANCE AFTER 03 UTC
IN THOSE AREAS AS WELL. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SAT AND SUN...
COMPLICATED FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS OCCURRENCE WILL
GREATLY IMPACT THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST PLACEMENT. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS HAS BEEN TO PLACE AN INVERTED SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL
WYOMING TONIGHT AND THEN STRETCH AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH INTO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS WOULD FOCUS MOST
OF THE STRONGEST FORCING IN A CORRIDOR EAST OF BILLINGS AND WEST
OF MILES CITY. UPSLOPE FLOW LOOKS TO MAINLY INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN
FACING SLOPES WITH A SURGE OF COLDER AIR INTO THE WESTERN ZONES.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT THIS
COULD LESSEN UPSLOPE INFLUENCES AND TAPER PRECIPITATION OFF. A
SECONDARY NORTHERN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT AND ENHANCE THE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT.
OVERALL...FEEL THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATON WILL
BE EAST ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS
THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ASCENT TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES...INCLUDING UPSLOPE LOCATIONS...IN PARTICULAR
THE NORTHERN FACING SLOPES. WILL MAINTAIN THE SAME BROAD BRUSHED
IDEA OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF PRECIPITATON...WITH UP TO AN
INCH AND A HALF ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD BE AT AROUND
9 THOUSAND FEET TONIGHT AND THEN EVENTUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 5500
FEET SATURDAY NIGHT ACCORDING TO GFS SOUNDINGS. MODELS OFTEN TIMES
UNDER ESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR GETTING PULLED IN...EVEN
WITH AS MOIST OF AN ATMOSPHERE AVAILABLE. FEEL EAST SLOPES WILL
SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF WET SNOW...INCLUDING RED LODGE.
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6 THOUSAND FEET SHOULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES WITH 6
OR SO INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ABOVE 8
THOUSAND FEET.
HIT POPS A LITTLE HARDER ON SUNDAY OVER THE WEST AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA. A GLANCING BLOW OF
ASCENT WILL SCOOT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT...SO RAISED
POPS FOR THOSE LOCATIONS AS WELL. MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
LOWER 50S SATURDAY...WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 40S OVER SOME UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS. GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF
MONTANA. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS WYOMING DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME WHICH MAY BRING A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS OUR
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER. BY WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
BEGIN TO BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH RISING
HEIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN OVERALL DRY
FORECAST ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND QUITE POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 70S. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT ARE DECREASING
IN NUMBER. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL ROUTES...WITH
LOCALIZED IFR AT TIMES. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
COMMON BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LOW MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY IN MOST AREAS. ADDITIONALLY IFR VIS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER PRECIP TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT THE
MOUNTAINS TO BE OBSCURED THROUGH SATURDAY. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/052 041/050 038/062 044/069 047/073 048/072 049/075
78/R 85/R 31/B 01/U 11/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 045/050 034/050 034/064 040/071 043/073 044/070 045/074
79/R 84/O 31/B 01/B 11/B 12/W 11/B
HDN 050/054 042/053 039/063 043/070 045/074 045/075 046/077
78/R 84/R 21/B 01/U 11/B 11/E 11/B
MLS 049/055 044/055 040/065 043/070 047/074 047/074 048/076
78/R 83/R 21/B 01/U 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 048/057 044/056 042/065 044/070 048/074 047/074 048/076
78/R 63/R 21/B 01/B 12/W 11/B 11/B
BHK 045/052 044/055 040/063 042/068 045/071 046/071 046/073
67/R 62/R 21/B 01/U 22/W 11/B 11/B
SHR 047/055 040/055 037/065 040/071 043/074 043/074 043/077
77/R 64/R 21/B 01/B 22/W 12/W 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1235 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
THE GFS AND ECM MODELS ARE SLOWING UP THE START TIME FOR RAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NAM AND SREF ARE VERY FAST RESEMBLING THE HRRR
WHICH BEGINS RAINFALL BY NOONTIME ACROSS WRN NEB. THE RAP IS
SLOWER LIKE THE GFS AND ECM WHICH SUGGESTS THE SLOWER MODELS
WOULD BE MORE ACCURATE.
THE FORECAST USES THE SLOWER MODELS WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE STEEP ENOUGH IN THE
00Z LBF AND UNR SOUNDINGS FOR A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS TODAY CONTINUE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. THE GUIDANCE CAME IN
VERY COOL FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC MODEL DATA FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
WHICH MIGHT STILL BE TOO COOL GIVEN THE SOUTHEAST WINDS...CLOUD
COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAINFALL. WHICH ARGUABLY COULD
CAUSE EVAPORATIVE COOLING BUT NOT NEARLY THE AMOUNT SUGGESTED BY
THE GUIDANCE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
LONG TERM IS ACTIVE...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODELS STILL
STRUGGLING TO AGREE...ESPECIALLY FOR NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL AID IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND ADD SOME UPSLOPE BL FLOW
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WEST OF 83. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE CHILLY
SIDE...50S TO LOW 60S FOR FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL
LIFT/WEAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS RIDGE SHIFTS/STALLS OVER
THE MISS RVR VALLEY. THIS BRINGS QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE
SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS DECENT
FOR OCTOBER AND WILL CONTINUE TO RETAIN CHANCE WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS AS THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
STILL WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...WITH THE GFS ON THE
FASTER SIDE THIS MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
INTO THE 60S AND 70S. SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG/POST FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TEMPS COOL INTO THE 50S AND 60S IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING. PREVAILING VFR
IS EXPECTED FOR KLBF AND KVTN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 3KFT AT KLBF THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY AND MAY BE GUSTY AT
TIMES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
407 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
THE GFS AND ECM MODELS ARE SLOWING UP THE START TIME FOR RAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NAM AND SREF ARE VERY FAST RESEMBLING THE HRRR
WHICH BEGINS RAINFALL BY NOONTIME ACROSS WRN NEB. THE RAP IS
SLOWER LIKE THE GFS AND ECM WHICH SUGGESTS THE SLOWER MODELS
WOULD BE MORE ACCURATE.
THE FORECAST USES THE SLOWER MODELS WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE STEEP ENOUGH IN THE
00Z LBF AND UNR SOUNDINGS FOR A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS TODAY CONTINUE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. THE GUIDANCE CAME IN
VERY COOL FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC MODEL DATA FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
WHICH MIGHT STILL BE TOO COOL GIVEN THE SOUTHEAST WINDS...CLOUD
COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAINFALL. WHICH ARGUABLY COULD
CAUSE EVAPORATIVE COOLING BUT NOT NEARLY THE AMOUNT SUGGESTED BY
THE GUIDANCE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
LONG TERM IS ACTIVE...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODELS STILL
STRUGGLING TO AGREE...ESPECIALLY FOR NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL AID IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND ADD SOME UPSLOPE BL FLOW
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WEST OF 83. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE CHILLY
SIDE...50S TO LOW 60S FOR FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL
LIFT/WEAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS RIDGE SHIFTS/STALLS OVER
THE MISS RVR VALLEY. THIS BRINGS QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE
SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS DECENT
FOR OCTOBER AND WILL CONTINUE TO RETAIN CHANCE WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS AS THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
STILL WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...WITH THE GFS ON THE
FASTER SIDE THIS MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
INTO THE 60S AND 70S. SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG/POST FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TEMPS COOL INTO THE 50S AND 60S IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 3000 TO
4000 FT AGL TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER LATE
THURSDAY MORNING CIGS WILL INCREASE TO 5000 FT AGL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...INCREASING FURTHER TO 10000 FT AGL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT CIGS RANGING FROM 5000
TO 10000 FT AGL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH CIGS RANGING
FROM 10000 TO 15000 FT AGL THEREAFTER. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
500 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY QUIET BUT COOL THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BACKS TOWARD THE
AREA BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT THE GENERAL
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK
FOR THAT SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN RECENT TRENDS ARE FAVORING THAT
THE STORM AND ITS IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE AT 5 PM FOR A BAND OF RAIN THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE POCONOS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND SHOWS RAIN TRACKING FROM THE POCONOS
INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. HAVE RAISED POPS IN
THIS AREA TO COVER FOR THIS AREA OF RAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS SKY COVER FORECAST AND
PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS SKIRTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS TO OUR SOUTH WITH A STRONG HIGH TO OUR
NORTH.
AS OF MID AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS PUSHING UP INTO NE PA TOWARD
SULLIVAN COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE. ELSEWHERE STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH OVER CENTRAL NY WITH ONLY THE N/W BREAKING
INTO ANY REAL SUNSHINE. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MOSTLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH, CLOUDS LOOK TO HAVE A
TOUGH TIME BREAKING UP OVER NY SOUTHERN TIER WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING INTO THE FINGER LAKES. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COOL...MAINLY
IN THE LOW 40S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 30S THROUGH COLDER SPOTS SUCH
AS THE CATSKILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH TO
THE NORTH. EXPECT ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY DAY FROM THE NY SOUTHERN
TIER SOUTH WITH SOME MORNING SUN FARTHER NORTH GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. MOST OF THE AREA STAYS DRY THOUGH STILL
CAN`T RULE A OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHER AREAS
FROM LUZERNE EAST THROUGH SULLIVAN COUNTIES DUE TO FRONT SITTING
OFF TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS STAY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEGIN TO PUSH
BACK TO N/W THOUGH TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS TO MAKE LESS OF A N/W
PUSH INTO CWA DUE TO STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH. THEREFOR BRING
LIKELY TO CAT POPS INTO NE PA BUT ONLY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF JOAQUIN AND THE EURO HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. NOW...LATEST
TWO RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...KEEP JOAQUIN OFFSHORE AS WELL...INCRSG CONFIDENCE THAT
THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FCST AREA.
DEEP ELY FLOW AHD OF JOAQUIN WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE BLKG RDG OVER THE NE LIMITS IT/S NWRD
EXTENT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD RCH THE NY/PA BRDR 12Z
SAT...BUT RDGG FROM THE NORTH PUSHES SWRD AFT 00Z SUN KEEPING THE
AREA GNRLY DRY INTO MON. SOME WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW IN THE FORM OF
AN INV TROF MAY ALLOW SOME LGTR PCPN TO LIFT INTO WRN NY AND MAY
BRING SOME LGT SHWRS TO THE SW ZONES.
WLY/S GRAB JOAQUIN ON MON AND TUE AND EJECT IT EWRD. WLY FLOW OVER
THE FCST AREA WILL BRING A SHRT WV THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE AREA WED BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHWRS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED FOR KSYR/KRME BUT PERSISTS FOR REMAINING
SITES. TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS TO DIMINISH SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
SO EXPECT FUEL ALT MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE UNTIL AROUND 21Z FOR
KITH/KELM/KBGM. KAVP HAS LIFTED TO LOW VFR BUT MAY STILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BY THIS EVENING ALL SITES
SHOULD BE VFR. OVERNIGHT, GUIDANCE IS INDICATING FOG FOR KELM
HOWEVER DO NOT SEE THIS AS LIKELY SINCE WINDS LOOK TO BE TOO
STRONG CREATING TOO MUCH MIXING SO WE DON`T INCLUDE THIS IN TAF
AND KEEP ALL SITES VFR TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
N/NE WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POTENTIAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FRONTAL ZONE BACKING INTO THE
AREA...AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF SLOWLY MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM.
TIMING AND TRACK SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEPTEMBER ENDED WET AND COOL. THIS PARTIALLY REVERSED THE DRY WARM
MONTH. NO PRECIP RECORDS WITH THE 1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS. BGM AND AVP BELOW NORMAL AND SYR ABOVE. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR AVP THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER EVER. BGM NUMBER 2 AND SYR NUMBER
3.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...PCF
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
111 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS...PASSING BY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...LAST NEAR-TERM UPDATE OF THE NIGHT. FRONT
HAS PUSHED THROUGH LUMBERTON...BENNETTSVILLE AND HARTSVILLE AND
SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL OF THE ILM FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. WE ARE
IN A SERIOUS LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE RELATIVELY LITTLE COVERAGE IN SHOWERS THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT IN DEFERENCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST I WILL SHOW
AN INCREASING TREND IN POPS AFTER 3 AM. THIS EFFECT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA WHERE LIFT OVER THE SLOPED FRONTAL
SURFACE SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...AREAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT BEGINNING
8PM THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN EXCEEDINGLY WET BUT SURPRISINGLY COOL PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE
SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT...UPPER LOW...AND COPIOUS TROPICAL
MOISTURE COMBINE ACROSS THE AREA. HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL PLAY A
FACTOR TOO...BUT THE TRACK OF THAT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND DIRECT
IMPACTS...IF ANY...WILL BE AFTER THE SHORT TERM.
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO KS/ND TODAY WILL AMPLIFY INTO A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN CLOSE OFF AND NEGATIVELY
TILT... POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORIDA...IN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND ANOMALOUS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE JUST BEFORE THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH
THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. COOL/DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE MUCH
LOWER DEWPOINTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT AT THE SAME TIME
SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD...SO EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING WILL ACTUALLY BE TAKING PLACE THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A CHILLY RAIN...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CLEARLY EVIDENT
ON PWAT ANALYSIS WILL BE DRIVEN BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS...DIRECTED RIGHT FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JOAQUIN. IT IS THIS MOIST CONVEYOR...A
"TROPICAL FIREHOSE" TO TAKE THE TERM FROM A SPENES MESSAGE 5 YEARS
AGO...THAT WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT
LATE THIS WEEK.
RAINFALL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD AS SATURATED LOW LEVEL
FLOW GETS ANGLED BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS...LIFTED ATOP THE STALLED
BOUNDARY...AND WRUNG OUT LOCALLY. PWATS WILL APPROACH 2.25 TO 2.5
INCHES...AND AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE INCREASES BOTH DUE TO THE
NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING 200MB JET
STREAK TO THE NW...RAINFALL WILL BECOME HEAVIER...AND CATEGORICAL
RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RAMPING DOWN TO LIKELY BY SATURDAY DUE TO THE TEMPORAL
EXTENT. ALL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE EXCLUSIVE FROM HURRICANE
JOAQUIN...ALTHOUGH THAT MOISTURE WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A HUGE ROLE
INTO THE QPF. WPC 1-3 DAY QPF MATCHES QUITE WELL WITH THE LOCAL
STORMTOTAL GRID...AND EXPECT 3-5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE BEYOND THIS SHORT TERM. OF COURSE THIS IS A
BASIN AVERAGE...AND MUCH HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR COUNTIES.
THIS LONG DURATION HEAVY RAIN EVENT HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF AN
AREAL FLOOD WATCH...AND WPC HAS ALSO OUTLINED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FLOODING WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN AND CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT. AT THE SAME
TIME...WHILE THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN OTHER IMPACTS...THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS FROM THE N/NE WILL INCREASE TO 15-20
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PWS34 PROBS CONTINUE TO RISE AS WELL...SO
ALTHOUGH NO TS FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS THE TRACK FOR JOAQUIN BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. ANY
STRONG WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DOWN TREES AND CAUSE POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY AS THE GROUND BECOMES SATURATED. THE FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND MAY BE NEEDED EVEN FURTHER INTO
THE LONG TERM.
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE QUITE COOL AS WARM ADVECTION IS SLOW TO
OCCUR FROM THE EAST. IF JOAQUIN STAYS WELL EAST OF THE AREA WE MAY
NEVER EXPERIENCE WARM "TROPICAL" TEMPS...AND HAVE HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A VERY LIMITED DIURNAL
RANGE WILL KEEP MINS ONLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER FROM THE DAYTIME
HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ALL EYES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL
CYCLONE THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS
INTERACTION WITH JOAQUIN. THE 1200 OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES ITS
RECENT TREND OF CAPTURING JOAQUIN AND MOVING IT DIRECTLY DUE WEST
AND NOW SHOWS IT MOVING ONSHORE JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. ITS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THIS IS ONLY ONE SOLUTION AND THE FORECAST TRACK
IS LIKELY TO CHANGE BACK AND FORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WITH NHC HAVING THE FINAL SAY ON THE TRACK...THE EXTENDED WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS AS THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEMS. THIS FOR
SATURDAY TRENDING DOWNWARD INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS STILL LOOK
QUIET AFTER THE EVENT WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD...CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS...AREAS OF
FOG...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS PLACE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
LUMBERTON. A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MUCH OF THE SAME WITH A MIXTURE OF
RESTRICTIONS WITH POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...WITH MVFR/TEMPO
IFR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...FEW CHANGES WITH THIS LAST NEAR-TERM
UPDATE OF THE NIGHT. FRONT IS MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN THE HRRR OR
RUC IS FORECASTING...VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS TIMING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM
WEDNESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN...BUT DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY BEGINNING THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO START THE PERIOD WILL LEAVE NE WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KTS MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL
CREATE AN AMPLIFICATION OF NE WIND WAVES...WITH A 5 SEC CHOP
GROWING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE
FROM THE LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH...PROVIDING A 10-SEC AT 4-6
FT SWELL...AND THEN POTENTIALLY A LARGER SWELL FROM HURRICANE
JOAQUIN. ALL OF THESE WAVE GROUPS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS GROWING FROM 3-6 FT EARLY THURSDAY TO AS MUCH AS
8-10 FT LATE FRIDAY. A LOT CAN CHANGE DURING THIS PERIOD OF COURSE
AND WILL HINGE ON JOAQUINS TRACK. HOWEVER...AN SCA HAS BEEN RAISED
BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND FRIDAY...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER OR NOT TROPICAL HAZARDS ARE RAISED. EITHER WAY...MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE DANGEROUS LATE INTO THE
SHORT TERM AND BEYOND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CYCLONES...ONE TROPICAL (JOAQUIN) AND THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM
AND EVENTUAL SURFACE REFLECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED THE ONSHORE FLOW
EARLY ON SATURDAY QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO OFFSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AS
JOAQUIN MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN AREN`T THAT
PROLIFIC WITH RANGES OF 15-20 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL BE ANOTHER
STORY WITH SOME DECENT WIND WAVES BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
GENERATED BY LARGE SWELL COMPONENTS. COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 6-10
FEET DROPPING OFF LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1115 PM WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AT ALL BEACHES HAS DIMINISHED AND THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED...AS PEAK TIDE GAGE READINGS AT JOHNNY MERCER AND
SPRINGMAID PIER FALL SHORT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT REMAINS FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THRU 300 AM THU...AS HIGH TIDE IS STAGGERED UP TO 2.5
HOURS LATER THAN THE BEACHES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
TWEAKED POPS FURTHER AS A BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE HRRR HAS THE EASTERN ACTIVITY DISSIPATING
OR MOVING NORTH INTO CANADA SO HAVE THE WESTERN PRECIP TAKE OVER
AND LINGER OVER THAT AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY BUT THE
MAIN SHOW IS WITH THE STORMS ENTERING OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
FROM ROLETTE COUNTY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SCATTERED POPS GOING AND
HAVE THEM RAMPING UP THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A FAIRLY DECENT
VORT MAX DIGS DOWN OUT OF THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW. PRECIP WILL NOT
MAKE TOO MUCH PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BEFORE
THE ENTIRE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO RETROGRADE AND TAKE THE SHOWER
THREAT WITH IT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
ADJUSTED POPS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS JUST A
TAD AS CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ONLY A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA
CONTINUES TO WOBBLE SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
MAIN IMPACTS THIS PERIOD WILL COME FROM AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...REALLY ONLY EXPECTING AREAS OF SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THESE SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE HUDSON BAY UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES
INTO THE REGION (BRINGING IN A LOW LEVEL DRY EASTERLY FLOW).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE FROST POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...BUT
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND SFC WINDS. THE MORE PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS MAY APPROACH THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY SHOW DRY CONDS WITH MAIN
STORM TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PROVINCES...WITH DRY WX OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LOW OVER ROCKIES DEVELOPED
BY MON (ON GFS) BRINGS A SW RIDGE OVER DAKOTAS MON NIGHT WHILE
ECMWF HAS LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT...BRINGING THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS SEEN IN SUPERBLEND ON TUE.
THEREFORE LOW CONFIDENCE IN POPS FOR SPECIFIC PERIODS MID NEXT
WEEK...BUT IN GENERAL...WITH SW FLOW PATTERN SHOWING ON BOTH
MODELS BY TUE...WE WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE
TUE TO THU TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN GUSTS BUT STILL ARE SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS OR SO. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY MID MORNING
AND WILL GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS OR SO BY AFTERNOON. THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD START TO SEE WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AND DECREASING
CLOUDS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1115 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Showers / isolated thunder western fringe of forecast area
gradually diminishing in coverage while dropping southeast.
Only minor adjustments made from earlier 839 am update.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Even with scattered showers and thunderstorms across northeast Oklahoma
this morning, VFR conditions are prevailing. Fog has been and intermittent
problem at KFYV overnight. Have gone with some MVFR fog there for a few hours
this morning. Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the valid period at all area TAF sites.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across
parts of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma...in zone of
isentropic lift noted along 305K surface. HRRR appears to have a
reasonable handle on this...and will carry some low PoPs through
the morning hours generally west of Highway 75. Otherwise expect
a cool start to October...with high temperatures running a few
degrees below seasonal norms.
Surface ridging will lock in the dry low-level airmass across the
region through the weekend and into early next week...with
several days of seasonally cool weather in store. 00Z model runs
continue to keep highest mean RH to our west...and the forecast
will remain dry.
The mid-level ridge will eventually erode next week as pieces of
shortwave energy eject east out the mean trof position. Southerly
flow and improving moisture will kick in by Tuesday...with rain
chances increasing toward mid-week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 74 47 69 47 / 10 10 0 0
FSM 77 49 73 49 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 77 49 70 48 / 80 10 0 0
BVO 72 42 69 42 / 10 10 0 0
FYV 70 40 67 42 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 68 45 65 44 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 73 47 69 47 / 10 10 0 0
MIO 69 45 67 44 / 10 0 0 0
F10 73 49 68 48 / 70 10 0 0
HHW 81 52 76 48 / 60 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
627 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Even with scattered showers and thunderstorms across northeast Oklahoma
this morning, VFR conditions are prevailing. Fog has been and intermittent
problem at KFYV overnight. Have gone with some MVFR fog there for a few hours
this morning. Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the valid period at all area TAF sites.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across
parts of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma...in zone of
isentropic lift noted along 305K surface. HRRR appears to have a
reasonable handle on this...and will carry some low PoPs through
the morning hours generally west of Highway 75. Otherwise expect
a cool start to October...with high temperatures running a few
degrees below seasonal norms.
Surface ridging will lock in the dry low-level airmass across the
region through the weekend and into early next week...with
several days of seasonally cool weather in store. 00Z model runs
continue to keep highest mean RH to our west...and the forecast
will remain dry.
The mid-level ridge will eventually erode next week as pieces of
shortwave energy eject east out the mean trof position. Southerly
flow and improving moisture will kick in by Tuesday...with rain
chances increasing toward mid-week.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
301 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across
parts of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma...in zone of
isentropic lift noted along 305K surface. HRRR appears to have a
reasonable handle on this...and will carry some low PoPs through
the morning hours generally west of Highway 75. Otherwise expect
a cool start to October...with high temperatures running a few
degrees below seasonal norms.
Surface ridging will lock in the dry low-level airmass across the
region through the weekend and into early next week...with
several days of seasonally cool weather in store. 00Z model runs
continue to keep highest mean RH to our west...and the forecast
will remain dry.
The mid-level ridge will eventually erode next week as pieces of
shortwave energy eject east out the mean trof position. Southerly
flow and improving moisture will kick in by Tuesday...with rain
chances increasing toward mid-week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 74 47 69 47 / 10 10 0 0
FSM 77 49 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 77 49 70 48 / 10 10 0 0
BVO 72 42 69 42 / 10 10 0 0
FYV 70 40 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 68 45 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 73 47 69 47 / 0 10 0 0
MIO 69 45 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
F10 73 49 68 48 / 10 10 0 0
HHW 81 52 76 48 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
910 PM PDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW REMAINS OFF THE OREGON COAST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LITTLE
CHANGE TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ROTATES INLAND WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SW WASHINGTON
AND NW OREGON THIS EVENING. BASED ON THESE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
DECIDED TO CUT FCST SKY COVER CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THE LATEST FCST MODELS...INCLUDING THE
00Z NAM AND THE 02Z RAP INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL STILL FORM
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AND PUSH INTO THE COASTAL GAPS
AND AND PARTIALLY UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA. BUT THINK THE EXTENT OF THE
MARINE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN WE SAW LAST NIGHT.
GIVEN THAT DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 50S TONIGHT THROUGH THE
VALLEY...THINK WE MAY SEE SOME RADIATIONAL LOW STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG
IN THE VALLEY TOWARD DAYBREAK THU MORNING. GIVEN THE DECREASED SKY
COVER...ALSO NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS.
EXPECT ANY CLOUD COVER THAT DOES FORM OVERNIGHT TO BURN OFF BY LATE
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER GENERALLY SUNNY AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES INLAND REMAIN IN THE 70S...WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS ONSHORE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY
ALLOWING A TRANSIENT AND WEAK AREA HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY BUT WITH ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...EXPECT MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR FRIDAY
MORNING. THESE MARINE CLOUDS LIKELY CLEAR BY LATE MORNING
FRIDAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.
WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL DIFFER ON SOME OF THE TIMING AND TRACK
DETAILS...CONTINUED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A BLEND OF MODELS WITH A
SLIGHT PREFERENCE TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. THE LATEST MODELS
BRING THE UPPER LOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS RANGES
TO A TRACK FROM JUST EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST TO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. REGARDLESS...EXPECT THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE UPPER LOW LARGELY OVER LAND
FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO OREGON. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO DROP
TO AROUND 7000 FEET...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY REMAIN
RESTRICTED TO THE HIGH CASCADES. PYLE
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH FORECAST MODELS ONLY IN MODEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
PRECISE SPEED AND TRACK THAT IT WILL TAKE. WHILE THE LOW MAY CONTINUE
SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA /PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION/ OR EAST TOWARDS THE
GREAT BASIN /MORE IN THE LINE THE GFS/ EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO END FOR
ALL EXCEPT PERHAPS THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES. CONTINUED TO
TREND THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TRACK. THIS PROVIDES FOR A
DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AND CLOUDS DECREASING FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASE TOWARDS
MIDWEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES
ARE STAYING CLEAR OUT 120 MI OFFSHORE...WHICH HAS DECREASED
CONFIDENCE DRAMATICALLY THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL PUSH INLAND AGAIN
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. STILL THINK FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST...DROPPING CIGS AND/OR VIS AT COASTAL TAF
SITES TO IFR/LIFR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. FOG OR
LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO BREAK UP AROUND 17Z-19Z AND IMPROVE TO
VFR BY AROUND 20Z. INLAND SITES SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH FOG PRONE AREAS MAY SEE PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AROUND 14Z. ANY FOG INLAND SHOULD
BURN OFF RIGHT AWAY AFTER SUNRISE...BY AROUND 15Z-16Z. VFR
CONDITIONS INLAND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXCEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG BRIEFLY
LOWERING CIGS AND VIS TO IFR AROUND 14Z-15Z THURSDAY
MORNING. -MCCOY
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATERS IS KEEPING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAK OVER THE WATERS. THIS
KEEPS WINDS RELATIVELY CALM THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SEAS CURRENTLY
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT GRADUALLY BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FT BY FRIDAY AS LARGER
SWELL MOVES IN GENERATED BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
THE TIMING AND DETAILS ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO TIMING AND
DETAILS COULD STILL CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
552 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 21Z SHOWS AN AREA OF LGT RAIN ACROSS THE SE
QUADRANT OF PA ASSOC LIFT AT NOSE OF MOIST ENE LL JET. NR TERM MDL
GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVR SE PA THIS
EVENING THEN SHIFT SOUTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRES
AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS NUDGE SOUTH FROM ONTARIO/UPSTATE NY.
RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
RAIN WILL RUN ROUGHLY FROM KUNV TO KIPT THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT
SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT BASED ON
BLEND OF LATEST MDL QPF RANGES FROM NOTHING NORTH OF I-80...TO
PERHAPS A QUARTER INCH OVER SOUTHERN YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES.
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVER THE SERN 2/3 OR SO OF THE REGION.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S OVER THE NW MTNS...WHERE PTCLDY
SKIES EXPECTED...TO THE L50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SREF AND GEFS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE INCREASING SELY FLOW
BRINGING RAIN BACK TO THE NW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. BY EVENING IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE...PERHAPS A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HINTED AT LATELY...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROS THE NW TODAY.
HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING AT WET WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A LARGE HIGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA RESULTS IN A NE TO E FLOW BECOMING MORE SE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVDER THE SE THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPANDING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE MODELS HINT AT THESE AREA SHOULD
DIE BY SUNSET...HARD TO SEE THIS OCCURRING.
THUS REGARDLESS OF INPUT FROM THE TROPICS...STILL LOOKING AT A
WINDY...COOL...WET PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND. DID LOWER TEMPS
SOME AND UP WINDS SOME.
SOME RAIN COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND MAYBE TUE AM...DEPENDING
ON THE INTERACTION OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WITH THE HURRICANE.
LEFT QPF CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAD...JUST A TAD LOWER FURTHER OUT
IN TIME. STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
WOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
FRONTAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB LIKELY TO BE INTENSE...AS COLDER AIR
BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NY AND WARM...TROPICAL AIR ADVECTS
TO THE NW FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILINGS IN THE 1500-2500` RANGE REMAIN STUBBORNLY STUCK OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR SOME VERY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SERN TERMINALS COULD BE THE EXCEPTION WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE REGION KEEPING MARGINAL CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FURTHER LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY FROM SE TO NW AS STEADIER RAIN AND LOWER CIGS PUSH
NORTHWESTWARD.
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
TUE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1149 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THE LOCATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE FRONT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH WEAK IMPULSES RIPPLING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE
SERN US.
THE FIRST AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS SPREADING NNE ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF
NC/VA SLIDES NORTHWARD IN THE DEEPENING UPPER FLOW EAST OF THE
LOW.
WE WILL PRETTY MUCH STAY STUCK IN THIS PATTERN WITH CLOUDS AND
COOL WEATHER DOMINATING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER
SERN AREAS WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL
BE OVER THE NW.
A BRISK NORTH TO NE FLOW OF 10-15 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL
CONTINUE...MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER THAN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WE
WILL REACH TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
GEFS MAINTAINS A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT OF PWAT FROM SE-NW ACROSS
PENN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PLUS 1 SIGMA PWATS BRUSHING OUR FAR
SE ZONES AND MINUS 1 PWATS NEAR KBFD.
AS THE EAST-NORTHEAST WIND VEERS AROUND A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST
FRIDAY...THEN SE SATURDAY AND INCREASES TO -3 TO -4 SIGMA...WE/LL
SEE THICK CLOUD COVER CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHC
FOR RAIN.
STRONGEST SERLY FLOW AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD IMPACT THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT SCENT PENN WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN...ALONG WITH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE NEXT WEATHER ISSUE SURROUNDS THE TRACK AND EVENTUAL IMPACT OF
HURRICANE JOAQUIN. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW
AND MASSIVE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL QUEBEC CANADA
WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. THE HRRR AND NCEP
SREF SHOWS THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THE AFTERNOON. SO WE DEPICTED RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWED THIS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOCUSED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM NEAR 40F...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENN. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATION
AND ORIENTATION OF THE PWATS...THE NW EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL PENN
ON FRIDAY.
A HIGHER...LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WILL EXIST SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR
LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: WE NUDGED TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND
MODIFIED THE QPF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL RAIN EVENT SETTING
UP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PA TO START ON FRIDAY.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND ALSO
ADDED CHC OF RAIN INTO MONDAY.
ALSO LOWER TEMPS SOME AND UP WINDS.
MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT BACKING TO THE WEST BY LATE SAT.
THIS WOULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD MOVE WEST OF OUR AREA BY LATE SAT OR
EARLY SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING AT A STRONG EAST TO SE FLOW OF
AIR OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...HEAVY
RAIN ETC.
ALSO STILL SOME TIME TO DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTION
WITH WITH THE TROPICS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STALLED OUT FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL COAST WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO BE LIFTED OVER IT AND PULLED NWWD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWWD TD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
EVEN IF SOON TO BE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES A TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATL REGION PER THE EC AND LATEST TPC GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
AND BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW /WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS -4 TO -5
SIGMA EASTERLY LLVL WIND AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR/ WILL
TRANSPORT PULSE OF RAIN INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...UP AND OVER THE
VERY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS PENN. TEMPS SATURDAY...MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE
THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD EDGE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 15 DEG
IN SOME AREAS.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE MDT AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE NRN EDGE OF A 2 INCH/24 HOUR AREA OF RAIN SKIRTING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS A PRE TYPE EVENT...WITH MORE DIRECT EFFECTS /IF
ANY/ FROM JOAQUIN COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER MOST
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AS LOWER CEILINGS
WILL RE-DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FURTHER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS STEADIER RAIN AND LOWER CIGS PUSH NWD. FRI INTO SAT
WILL LIKELY SEE CONDS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
736 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THESE LOCATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW AND A POTENTIAL...PROLONGED WET PERIOD. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO WEEKEND AS THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DRAWS MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1036 MB SFC HIGH NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA WILL STRENGTHEN TO OVER
1040 MB AS IT BUILDS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HEADED
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN BEGINNING TO EXPAND TO THE NORTHWEST...INTO OUR LOWER SUSQ
REGION AND PERHAPS THE SCENT MTN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...A BRISK NORTH TO NE FLOW OF 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY OVC SKIES CREATED FROM MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS.
05Z-07Z HRRR SHOWS SEVERAL PULSES OF WEAKENING SHOWERS BEING SENT
TO THE NW AND INTO OUR CENTRAL AND SE ZONES...BUT EACH RUN APPEARS
TO BE DRIER FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.
THE MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH SHOULD PEAK IN THE
1044-1046MB RANGE THIS WEEKEND...AND REACH A +2 TO +3 SIGMA
PRESSURE ANOMALY BY THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT
MOSTLY RAIN FREE DAY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES AS WELL.
CLOUDS AND THE NW EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD NEAR THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE NWWD TODAY. THE HRRR...NAM...AND SREF ALL
CLEARLY SHOW LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO YORK AND
LANCASTER COUNTIES AND WORKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. QUICKLY BROUGHT A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
POPS COMING UP FURTHER DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN WILL
FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
GEFS MAINTAINS A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT OF PWAT FROM SE-NW ACROSS
PENN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PLUS 1 SIGMA PWATS BRUSHING OUR FAR
SE ZONES AND MINUS 1 PWATS NEAR KBFD.
AS THE EAST-NORTHEAST WIND VEERS AROUND A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST
FRIDAY...THEN SE SATURDAY AND INCREASES TO -3 TO -4 SIGMA...WE/LL
SEE THICK CLOUD COVER CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHC
FOR RAIN.
STRONGEST SERLY FLOW AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD IMPACT THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT SCENT PENN WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN...ALONG WITH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE NEXT WEATHER ISSUE SURROUNDS THE TRACK AND EVENTUAL IMPACT OF
HURRICANE JOAQUIN. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW
AND MASSIVE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL QUEBEC CANADA
WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. THE HRRR AND NCEP
SREF SHOWS THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THE AFTERNOON. SO WE DEPICTED RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWED THIS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOCUSED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM NEAR 40F...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENN. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATION
AND ORIENTATION OF THE PWATS...THE NW EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL PENN
ON FRIDAY.
A HIGHER...LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WILL EXIST SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR
LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: WE NUDGED TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND
MODIFIED THE QPF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL RAIN EVENT SETTING
UP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PA TO START ON FRIDAY.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND ALSO
ADDED CHC OF RAIN INTO MONDAY.
ALSO LOWER TEMPS SOME AND UP WINDS.
MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT BACKING TO THE WEST BY LATE SAT.
THIS WOULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD MOVE WEST OF OUR AREA BY LATE SAT OR
EARLY SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING AT A STRONG EAST TO SE FLOW OF
AIR OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...HEAVY
RAIN ETC.
ALSO STILL SOME TIME TO DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTION
WITH WITH THE TROPICS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STALLED OUT FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL COAST WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO BE LIFTED OVER IT AND PULLED NWWD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWWD TD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
EVEN IF SOON TO BE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES A TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATL REGION PER THE EC AND LATEST TPC GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
AND BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW /WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS -4 TO -5
SIGMA EASTERLY LLVL WIND AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR/ WILL
TRANSPORT PULSE OF RAIN INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...UP AND OVER THE
VERY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS PENN. TEMPS SATURDAY...MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE
THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD EDGE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 15 DEG
IN SOME AREAS.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE MDT AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE NRN EDGE OF A 2 INCH/24 HOUR AREA OF RAIN SKIRTING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS A PRE TYPE EVENT...WITH MORE DIRECT EFFECTS /IF
ANY/ FROM JOAQUIN COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS AT 12Z SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
THIS AFTN FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...AS SFC HIGH PRES ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST /KLNS AND KMDT/...WHERE -RA COULD RETURN NWD ASSOC
WITH QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST.
CONDS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FURTHER LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST /KLNS AND KMDT/...AS STEADIER RAIN AND LOWER CIGS PUSH
NWD. FRI INTO SAT WILL LIKELY SEE CONDS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
533 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THESE LOCATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW AND A POTENTIAL...PROLONGED WET PERIOD. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO WEEKEND AS THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DRAWS MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1036 MB SFC HIGH NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA WILL STRENGTHEN TO OVER
1040 MB AS IT BUILDS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HEADED
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN BEGINNING TO EXPAND TO THE NORTHWEST...INTO OUR LOWER SUSQ
REGION AND PERHAPS THE SCENT MTN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...A BRISK NORTH TO NE FLOW OF 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY OVC SKIES CREATED FROM MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS.
05Z-07Z HRRR SHOWS SEVERAL PULSES OF WEAKENING SHOWERS BEING SENT
TO THE NW AND INTO OUR CENTRAL AND SE ZONES...BUT EACH RUN APPEARS
TO BE DRIER FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.
THE MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH SHOULD PEAK IN THE
1044-1046MB RANGE THIS WEEKEND...AND REACH A +2 TO +3 SIGMA
PRESSURE ANOMALY BY THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT
MOSTLY RAIN FREE DAY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES AS WELL.
CLOUDS AND THE NW EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD NEAR THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE NWWD TODAY. THE HRRR...NAM...AND SREF ALL
CLEARLY SHOW LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO YORK AND
LANCASTER COUNTIES AND WORKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. QUICKLY BROUGHT A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
POPS COMING UP FURTHER DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN WILL
FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
GEFS MAINTAINS A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT OF PWAT FROM SE-NW ACROSS
PENN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PLUS 1 SIGMA PWATS BRUSHING OUR FAR
SE ZONES AND MINUS 1 PWATS NEAR KBFD.
AS THE EAST-NORTHEAST WIND VEERS AROUND A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST
FRIDAY...THEN SE SATURDAY AND INCREASES TO -3 TO -4 SIGMA...WE/LL
SEE THICK CLOUD COVER CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHC
FOR RAIN.
STRONGEST SERLY FLOW AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD IMPACT THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT SCENT PENN WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN...ALONG WITH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE NEXT WEATHER ISSUE SURROUNDS THE TRACK AND EVENTUAL IMPACT OF
HURRICANE JOAQUIN. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW
AND MASSIVE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL QUEBEC CANADA
WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. THE HRRR AND NCEP
SREF SHOWS THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THE AFTERNOON. SO WE DEPICTED RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWED THIS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOCUSED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM NEAR 40F...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENN. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATION
AND ORIENTATION OF THE PWATS...THE NW EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL PENN
ON FRIDAY.
A HIGHER...LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WILL EXIST SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR
LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: WE NUDGED TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND
MODIFIED THE QPF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL RAIN EVENT SETTING
UP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PA TO START ON FRIDAY.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND ALSO
ADDED CHC OF RAIN INTO MONDAY.
ALSO LOWER TEMPS SOME AND UP WINDS.
MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT BACKING TO THE WEST BY LATE SAT.
THIS WOULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD MOVE WEST OF OUR AREA BY LATE SAT OR
EARLY SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING AT A STRONG EAST TO SE FLOW OF
AIR OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...HEAVY
RAIN ETC.
ALSO STILL SOME TIME TO DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTION
WITH WITH THE TROPICS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STALLED OUT FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL COAST WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO BE LIFTED OVER IT AND PULLED NWWD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWWD TD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
EVEN IF SOON TO BE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES A TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATL REGION PER THE EC AND LATEST TPC GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
AND BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW /WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS -4 TO -5
SIGMA EASTERLY LLVL WIND AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR/ WILL
TRANSPORT PULSE OF RAIN INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...UP AND OVER THE
VERY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS PENN. TEMPS SATURDAY...MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE
THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD EDGE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 15 DEG
IN SOME AREAS.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE MDT AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE NRN EDGE OF A 2 INCH/24 HOUR AREA OF RAIN SKIRTING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS A PRE TYPE EVENT...WITH MORE DIRECT EFFECTS /IF
ANY/ FROM JOAQUIN COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDS PERSISTING AT KJST AT 09Z. OTHERWISE...DOWNSLOPING
NORTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AIRFIELDS AND LOW VFR /3-4K FT/ AT KMDT AND KLNS. PRES
GRADIENT BTWN FRONTAL BNDRY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRES TO THE
NORTH KEEPING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10KTS.
HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIRMASS PRESSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA SHOULD
ENSURE MAINLY VFR CONDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY THU AFTN. ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KMDT/KLNS...WHERE SOME MDL DATA
INDICATES A RETURN OF -SHRA/MVFR CIGS ASSOC WITH QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
CONDS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FRI INTO SAT...AS RAIN AND LOW CIGS
PUSH BACK INTO CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
519 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THESE LOCATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW AND A POTENTIAL...PROLONGED WET PERIOD. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO WEEKEND AS THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DRAWS MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1036 MB SFC HIGH NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA WILL STRENGTHEN TO OVER
1040 MB AS IT BUILDS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HEADED
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN BEGINNING TO EXPAND TO THE NORTHWEST...INTO OUR LOWER SUSQ
REGION AND PERHAPS THE SCENT MTN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...A BRISK NORTH TO NE FLOW OF 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY OVC SKIES CREATED FROM MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS.
05Z-07Z HRRR SHOWS SEVERAL PULSES OF WEAKENING SHOWERS BEING SENT
TO THE NW AND INTO OUR CENTRAL AND SE ZONES...BUT EACH RUN APPEARS
TO BE DRIER FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.
THE MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH SHOULD PEAK IN THE
1044-1046MB RANGE THIS WEEKEND...AND REACH A +2 TO +3 SIGMA
PRESSURE ANOMALY BY THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT
MOSTLY RAIN FREE DAY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES AS WELL.
CLOUDS AND THE NW EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD NEAR THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE NWWD TODAY. THE HRRR...NAM...AND SREF ALL
CLEARLY SHOW LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO YORK AND
LANCASTER COUNTIES AND WORKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. QUICKLY BROUGHT A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
POPS COMING UP FURTHER DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN WILL
FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
GEFS MAINTAINS A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT OF PWAT FROM SE-NW ACROSS
PENN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PLUS 1 SIGMA PWATS BRUSHING OUR FAR
SE ZONES AND MINUS 1 PWATS NEAR KBFD.
AS THE EAST-NORTHEAST WIND VEERS AROUND A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST
FRIDAY...THEN SE SATURDAY AND INCREASES TO -3 TO -4 SIGMA...WE/LL
SEE THICK CLOUD COVER CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHC
FOR RAIN.
STRONGEST SERLY FLOW AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD IMPACT THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT SCENT PENN WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN...ALONG WITH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE NEXT WEATHER ISSUE SURROUNDS THE TRACK AND EVENTUAL IMPACT OF
HURRICANE JOAQUIN. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW
AND MASSIVE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL QUEBEC CANADA
WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. THE HRRR AND NCEP
SREF SHOWS THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THE AFTERNOON. SO WE DEPICTED RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWED THIS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOCUSED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM NEAR 40F...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENN. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATION
AND ORIENTATION OF THE PWATS...THE NW EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL PENN
ON FRIDAY.
A HIGHER...LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WILL EXIST SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR
LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: WE NUDGED TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND
MODIFIED THE QPF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL RAIN EVENT SETTING
UP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PA TO START ON FRIDAY.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND ALSO
ADDED CHC OF RAIN INTO MONDAY.
ALSO LOWER TEMPS SOME AND UP WINDS.
MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT BACKING TO THE WEST BY LATE SAT.
THIS WOULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD MOVE WEST OF OUR AREA BY LATE SAT OR
EARLY SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING AT A STRONG EAST TO SE FLOW OF
AIR OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...HEAVY
RAIN ETC.
ALSO STILL SOME TIME TO DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTION
WITH WITH THE TROPICS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STALLED OUT FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL COAST WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO BE LIFTED OVER IT AND PULLED NWWD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWWD TD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
EVEN IF SOON TO BE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES A TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATL REGION PER THE EC AND LATEST TPC GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
AND BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW /WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS -4 TO -5
SIGMA EASTERLY LLVL WIND AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR/ WILL
TRANSPORT PULSE OF RAIN INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...UP AND OVER THE
VERY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS PENN. TEMPS SATURDAY...MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE
THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD EDGE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 15 DEG
IN SOME AREAS.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE MDT AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE NRN EDGE OF A 2 INCH/24 HOUR AREA OF RAIN SKIRTING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS A PRE TYPE EVENT...WITH MORE DIRECT EFFECTS /IF
ANY/ FROM JOAQUIN COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE N/W MTNS ON NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS AT KJST AND BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR
CIGS AT KBFD AT 06Z...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW IS
RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AIRFIELDS AND VFR IN VICINITY OF KMDT/KLNS.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY
RISING CIGS OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF KJST. PRES GRADIENT BTWN FRONTAL BNDRY TO THE SOUTH
AND HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE NORTHERLY WINDS UP
TONIGHT AT ARND 10KTS.
HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS PRESSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THU AFTN.
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KMDT/KLNS...WHERE SOME MDL DATA
INDICATES A RETURN OF -SHRA/MVFR CIGS ASSOC WITH QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
319 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS SETS UP
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND A POTENTIAL PROLONGED WET PERIOD.
SO...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
WEEKEND AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DRAWS MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
1036 MB SFC HIGH NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA WILL STRENGTHEN TO OVER
1040 MB AS IT BUILDS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HEADED
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN BEGINNING TO EXPAND TO THE NORTHWEST...INTO OUR LOWER SUSQ
REGION AND PERHAPS THE SCENT MTN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...A BRISK NORTH TO NE FLOW OF 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY OVC SKIES CREATED FROM MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS.
05Z HRRR SHOWS SOME PULSES OF WEAKENING SHOWERS BEING SENT TO THE
NW AND INTO OUR CENTRAL AND SE ZONES...BUT HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
SOUTHERN PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH COULD PEAK AT 1040 MB WITH
ABOUT +2 TO +3 SIGMA PRESSURE ANOMALIES BY EVENING. THE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MOSTLY RAIN FREE
DAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHIELD MOVING NORTHWARD. THE HRRR...NAM AND SREF
ALL CLEARLY SHOW LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO YORK AND
LANCASTER COUNTIES AND WORKING SLOWLY NORTWESTHWARD DURING THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. QUICKLY BROUGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...WITH POPS COMING UP FURTHER
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN WILL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY.
THE ISSUE IS THE LOW PRESSURE AND THE CIRCULATION WITH HURRICANE
JOAQUIN. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW AND MASSIVE
ANTICYCLONE WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. THE
NCEP SREF SHOWS THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THE AFTERNOON. SO WE DEPICTED RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWED THIS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOCUSED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK LIKE THEY WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF 60...COOLER NORTH...MILDER SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: WE NUDGED TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND
MODIFIED THE QPF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL RAIN EVENT SETTING
UP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PA TO START ON FRIDAY.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND ALSO
ADDED CHC OF RAIN INTO MONDAY.
ALSO LOWER TEMPS SOME AND UP WINDS.
MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT BACKING TO THE WEST BY LATE SAT.
THIS WOULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD MOVE WEST OF OUR AREA BY LATE SAT OR
EARLY SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING AT A STRONG EAST TO SE FLOW OF
AIR OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...HEAVY
RAIN ETC.
ALSO STILL SOME TIME TO DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTION
WITH WITH THE TROPICS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STALLED OUT FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL COAST WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO BE LIFTED OVER IT AND PULLED NWWD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWWD TD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
EVEN IF SOON TO BE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES A TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATL REGION PER THE EC AND LATEST TPC GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
AND BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW /WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS -4 TO -5
SIGMA EASTERLY LLVL WIND AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR/ WILL
TRANSPORT PULSE OF RAIN INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...UP AND OVER THE
VERY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS PENN. TEMPS SATURDAY...MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE
THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD EDGE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 15 DEG
IN SOME AREAS.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE MDT AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE NRN EDGE OF A 2 INCH/24 HOUR AREA OF RAIN SKIRTING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS A PRE TYPE EVENT...WITH MORE DIRECT EFFECTS /IF
ANY/ FROM JOAQUIN COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE N/W MTNS ON NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS AT KJST AND BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR
CIGS AT KBFD AT 06Z...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW IS
RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AIRFIELDS AND VFR IN VICINITY OF KMDT/KLNS.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY
RISING CIGS OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF KJST. PRES GRADIENT BTWN FRONTAL BNDRY TO THE SOUTH
AND HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE NORTHERLY WINDS UP
TONIGHT AT ARND 10KTS.
HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS PRESSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THU AFTN.
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KMDT/KLNS...WHERE SOME MDL DATA
INDICATES A RETURN OF -SHRA/MVFR CIGS ASSOC WITH QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
128 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS SETS UP
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND A POTENTIAL PROLONGED WET PERIOD.
SO...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
WEEKEND AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DRAWS MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE STILL BUILDING IN. SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD AND RAIN SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO CREEP INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN AREA A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. TO THE NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD BE DRY. HRRR RUNS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN ARRIVES IN THE 6 TO 10
AM TIME IN SOUTHEAST. OPTIMISTICALLY SHOWED RAIN IN SE AFTER 8 AM
IN GRIDS/ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH COULD PEAK AT 1040 MB WITH
ABOUT +2 TO +3 SIGMA PRESSURE ANOMALIES BY EVENING. THE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MOSTLY RAIN FREE
DAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHIELD MOVING NORTHWARD. THE HRRR CLEARLY SHOWS
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES AND WORKING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. QUICKLY BROUGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND POPS COMING UP DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN
WILL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE ISSUE IS THE LOW PRESSURE AND THE CIRCULATION WITH HURRICANE
JOAQUIN. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW AND MASSIVE
ANTICYCLONE WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. THE
NCEP SREF SHOWS THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THE AFTERNOON. SO WE DEPICTED RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWED THIS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOCUSED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 60...COOLER NORTH...MILDER SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: WE NUDGED TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND
MODIFIED THE QPF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL RAIN EVENT SETTING
UP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PA TO START ON FRIDAY.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND ALSO
ADDED CHC OF RAIN INTO MONDAY.
ALSO LOWER TEMPS SOME AND UP WINDS.
MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT BACKING TO THE WEST BY LATE SAT.
THIS WOULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD MOVE WEST OF OUR AREA BY LATE SAT OR
EARLY SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING AT A STRONG EAST TO SE FLOW OF
AIR OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...HEAVY
RAIN ETC.
ALSO STILL SOME TIME TO DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTION
WITH WITH THE TROPICS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STALLED OUT FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL COAST WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO BE LIFTED OVER IT AND PULLED NWWD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWWD TD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
EVEN IF SOON TO BE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES A TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATL REGION PER THE EC AND LATEST TPC GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
AND BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW /WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS -4 TO -5
SIGMA EASTERLY LLVL WIND AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR/ WILL
TRANSPORT PULSE OF RAIN INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...UP AND OVER THE
VERY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS PENN. TEMPS SATURDAY...MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE
THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD EDGE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 15 DEG
IN SOME AREAS.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE MDT AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE NRN EDGE OF A 2 INCH/24 HOUR AREA OF RAIN SKIRTING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS A PRE TYPE EVENT...WITH MORE DIRECT EFFECTS /IF
ANY/ FROM JOAQUIN COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE N/W MTNS ON NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS AT KJST AND BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR
CIGS AT KBFD AT 06Z...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW IS
RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AIRFIELDS AND VFR IN VICINITY OF KMDT/KLNS.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY
RISING CIGS OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF KJST. PRES GRADIENT BTWN FRONTAL BNDRY TO THE SOUTH
AND HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE NORTHERLY WINDS UP
TONIGHT AT ARND 10KTS.
HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS PRESSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THU AFTN.
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KMDT/KLNS...WHERE SOME MDL DATA
INDICATES A RETURN OF -SHRA/MVFR CIGS ASSOC WITH QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
920 PM MST FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME BREEZINESS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN AZ
BORDER IS APPROACHING THE AREA WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
COCHISE COUNTY THIS HOUR...WELL MARKED BY THE CLOUDS ON IR IMAGERY.
MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATES CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG SITTING OVER SE
HALF OF COCHISE COUNTY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE BUT HAVE MANAGED TO ESCAPE ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THUS FAR. THE EARLIER NAM RUNS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS INDICATED
PRECIP THIS AREA THIS EVENING BUT NO INDICATIONS OF THAT HAPPENING
IN THE REAL WORLD SO NO CHANGES TO BE MADE AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY COOLER
AIR WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR HIGH TEMPS 6-8 DEGREES
COOLER SATURDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO
KICK UP A BIT OF A BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON OUT OF THE
WEST...GENERALLY IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE SE HALF OF COCHISE COUNTY ONCE AGAIN
AS THAT AREA IS ON THE EDGE THE BAND OF MOISTURE. CERNIGLIA
REMAINDER FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...02/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
NEXT STRONGER UPPER LOW TO BE OVER NRN CALIFORNIA SAT NIGHT. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SAT NIGHT...AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. HOWEVER...AM SOMEWHAT
CONCERNED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER NORTH INCLUDING THE TUCSON
METRO AREA LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING AS PER THE 02/12Z NAM.
FOR NOW...HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS NAM SOLUTION BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS FURTHER NORTH VERSUS THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY SUN AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY SWD
TOWARD NEAR LOS ANGELES. THE UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY INTO MON. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS EAST OF
TUCSON SUN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON WWD INTO THE
TOHONO O`ODHAM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUN ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS MON. SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MON GIVEN THE PROGGED CAPES...WIND
SHEER PROFILES AND THE PRESENCE OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS
TO ROTATE NEWD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BEGIN FILLING AND MOVE NEWD INTO SRN
NEVADA EARLY TUE. THE GFS/ECMWF WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH THIS
SCENARIO. DRYING IS PROGGED MOSTLY ABOVE 500 MB TUE AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES SLOWLY EWD INTO NRN ARIZONA. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT GENERALLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE
SEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE WED. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-EAST WED. ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH WED. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WED NIGHT-FRI AS THE UPPER LOW
ADVANCES GENERALLY SEWD INTO FAR WEST TEXAS/CHIHUAHUA MEXICO.
PRELIMINARY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR SUN MORNING INTO EARLY TUE MORNING
ARE PROJECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO
THREE QUARTERS OF INCH IN THE VALLEYS...AND FROM ONE HALF OF AN INCH
TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TUE-WED
AND THESE WILL LIKELY BE ADDRESSED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
DISCUSSIONS.
A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR SAT-TUE...WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPS TO PREVAIL TUE-WED. EXPECT WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS THUR-FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/06Z.
SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL AND SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL MAINLY
E OF A LINE FROM KOLS TO KTUS TO KSAD THRU 03/08Z. OTHERWISE...SKC
CONDITIONS TIL 03/19Z. AFT 03/19Z...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL.
SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS 03/16Z. AFT 03/16Z
INCREASING SURFACE WIND WITH SLY/SWLY SURFACE WIND AT 12-18 KTS AND
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS...WITH THE STRONGEST WIND FROM KTUS
EASTWARD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT BREEZY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL START SATURDAY...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLATED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
354 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING AS
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. DRIER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS ENDED PRECIP MOST LOCATIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH A FEW -SHRA WERE LINGERING ALONG THE NM
AND KS BORDERS AS OF 0930Z. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MAINLY EL PASO/PUEBLO COUNTIES...THOUGH WITH LOW
LEVEL WINDS KEEPING MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT(VERSUS S-SE 24 HRS
AGO)...HAVE YET TO SEE MUCH IF ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOP. OTHER THAN A
FEW -SHRA NEAR THE KS BORDER EARLY...EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE
PRECIP FREE FROM SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY...AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPWARD MOTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN COLORADO. HAVE ALSO
PULLED MENTION OF FOG FROM MOST LOCATIONS AS LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS
SUGGEST ONLY VERY PATCHY AREAS OF LOWER VISIBILITY...LIMITED TO
MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF EL PASO COUNTY. BY LATE MORNING...EXPECT
LOWER CLOUDS TO BREAK WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA MAKES IT TOUGH TO RULE
OUT SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THOUGH MOST MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP
CHANCES. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWN TO ISOLATED MOST AREAS...AND DELAY
TIMING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS LATEST HRRR HAS NO CONVECTION FORMING
THROUGH 19Z. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA LOOK SEASONABLY COOL WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN THE LEE OF THE WETS/SANGRES...WHERE CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKEST THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD DIE FAIRLY QUICKLY MANY AREAS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THOUGH WON`T COMPLETELY END THINGS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
MOST MODELS KEEP SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES GOING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SUPPOSE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUN
MORNING...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE WHERE CONVECTIVE PRECIP FALLS BEFORE
ADDING ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
...CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MODELS ARE NOW IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OR AND ON TO THE CA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE MTS...THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUNDAY...SERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN PLAINS AND COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...BUT
SHOULD NOT BE TOO WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING. SWRLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH ALOFT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EWD FROM THE
SRN CA COAST. TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD BE PLEASANT...IN THE
70S...WHILE THE MTS COOL TO THE 50S AND 60S.
PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW MTS ON
MONDAY...AS THE UPPR LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SW. WILL SEE A GOOD
TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE BAJA REGION NWD INTO WRN NM AND
CO. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED MODT-HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CONTDVD MON
AFTERNOON AND EVE. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EWD ON TUESDAY. THE PLAINS SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY UNTIL LATE
TUE AFTERNOON OR EVE...AND THE INCREASED S-SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARM
CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S.
MODEL CONSENSUS THEN TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL NM. THE ECMWF IS
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH THIS TRACK...BUT DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT. WITH THE MORE SRLY
TRAJECTORY...THE COLD CORE WILL REMAIN S OF OUR AREA AND H7 TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMS
WILL BE CONFINED TOT HE HIGHER PEAKS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE HIGHER PASSES IN CHAFFEE AND LAKE
COUNTIES...IN PARTICULAR INDEPENDENCE PASS WHICH COULD SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FALL BY WED. MAY SEE OUR FIRST WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IF
THE CURRENT PROGS HOLD UP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP E OF THE MTS
WILL COME WED NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT
WITH THE MORE SRLY TRACK AND WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM...IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES ON THE BACKSIDE
IN NRLY FLOW ALOFT THAT KEEP THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTS.
ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
AT KALS...VFR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOME VERY ISOLATED TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. SW WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
AT KCOS...IFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH
PERHAPS SOME BRIEF LIFR AROUND SUNRISE. CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG LOOKS
TO BE DECREASING AS WINDS STAY MORE E-NE...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL COULD DROP BELOW A MILE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
AROUND SUNRISE. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO BREAK BY MID-MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH
AND GUST 20-25 KNOTS FOR A TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING. MAY SEE A TSRA OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WEST OF THE
TERMINAL...BUT WON`T INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.
AT KPUB...IFR CIGS EARLY WILL BREAK BY MID-MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MAY SEE A
TSRA OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WEST OF THE TERMINAL IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WON`T INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
410 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING HEAVY RAIN.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
DRYING WILL OCCUR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H5 LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BORDER THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY A SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE PEE DEE REGION EARLY TODAY TO THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PLUS AN H85 JET WILL RESULT IN A BAND
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROPICAL
CONNECTION WITH THE MOISTURE AND THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 2 INCHES IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS INDICATED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS. THE NAM...
ECMWF...SREF MEAN HAD LOWER AMOUNTS. GENERALLY USED AN AVERAGE OF
OF THE GUIDANCE. BELIEVE SOME TOTALS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
NEAR 8 INCHES AND PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLOODING COULD RESULT.
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE HEAVY RAIN FOCUS WILL
GENERALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG H85 EASTERLY JET
WITH HIGH MOISTURE. EXPECT DIFLUENT FLOW NORTH OF THE H5 LOW. RAIN
RATES MAY BE DIMINISHED BECAUSE OF LESS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH SATURATED GROUND AND CONTINUED TROPICAL MOISTURE
THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE RIVER
FLOODING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE H5 LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OFF THE COAST MONDAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE MONDAY. EXPECT
DRYING TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY WITH RIDGING
DOMINATING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE
FRIDAY IN AN ONSHORE FLOW. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR WITH IFR AT TIMES DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WITH EAST FLOW.
RAIN...PATCHY AT THE MOMENT AT AREA TERMINALS WILL INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING...BECOMING MODERATE AND HEAVY AT TIMES AT CAE/CUB AND OGB
THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL
TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EAST 1O TO 20 KNOTS...A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHTER WINDS IN THE AGS AREA WHERE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
218 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING HEAVY RAIN.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
DRYING WILL OCCUR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H5 LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BORDER THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY A SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE PEE DEE REGION EARLY TODAY TO THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PLUS AN H85 JET WILL RESULT IN A BAND
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROPICAL
CONNECTION WITH THE MOISTURE AND THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 2 INCHES IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS INDICATED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS. THE NAM...
ECMWF...SREF MEAN HAD LOWER AMOUNTS. GENERALLY USED AN AVERAGE OF
OF THE GUIDANCE. BELIEVE SOME TOTALS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
NEAR 8 INCHES AND PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLOODING COULD RESULT.
RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUGGESTS THE HEAVY RAIN FOCUS WILL
GENERALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG H85 EASTERLY JET
WITH HIGH MOISTURE. EXPECT DIFLUENT FLOW NORTH OF THE H5 LOW. RAIN
RATES MAY BE DIMINISHED BECAUSE OF LESS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH SATURATED GROUND AND CONTINUED TROPICAL MOISTURE
THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE RIVER
FLOODING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE H5 LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OFF THE COAST MONDAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE MONDAY. EXPECT
DRYING TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY WITH RIDGING
DOMINATING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE
FRIDAY IN AN ONSHORE FLOW. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR WITH IFR AT TIMES DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WITH EAST FLOW.
RAIN...PATCHY AT THE MOMENT AT AREA TERMINALS WILL INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING...BECOMING MODERATE AND HEAVY AT TIMES AT CAE/CUB AND OGB
THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL
TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EAST 1O TO 20 KNOTS...A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHTER WINDS IN THE AGS AREA WHERE SURFACE TROUGH/CALL AREA
EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
125 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
...RECORD RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY...
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN MOVE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS LIFTING INLAND ON
SUNDAY...THEN MOVING AWAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
PREVAIL DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE
JOAQUIN WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS UPPER CHARLESTON SO FAR THIS
MORNING WHERE POCKETS OF 4-6 INCH RAINS HAVE A LIKELY OCCURRED.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE BAND SLOWLY MOVING WEST/SOUTHWEST
OVER THE COMING HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW DROPPING A BIT
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS WITHIN A
BAND OF ENHANCED 850-700 HPA INFLOW. CONVECTION WILL ALSO INCREASE
WITH SHOWALTER VALUES DROPPING WELL BELOW 0C. THIS WILL ONLY
ENHANCE THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT. HAVE REORIENTED THE
POP FORECAST AND QPF SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT GOING TRENDS. THE NEAR
TERM RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS OVER CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY
COUNTIES WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM.
THE COASTAL FRONT HAS REACHED THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON COUNTY
WHERE BOTH FOLLY BEACH AND ISLE OF PALMS ARE NOW IN THE 70S. THE
COASTAL FRONT WILL MEANDER INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER IT IT UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW FAR IT WILL PENETRATE.
THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG CHARLESTON AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES THROUGH SUNRISE THERE THE LATEST RAP SHOWS
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND 0-1KM HELICITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LATEST CONSENSUS FORECAST IS STILL
SHOWING A HIGH POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINS AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWFA. WHAT IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN IS ACTUALLY
WHERE THE BAND OR BANDS OF EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS WILL SET
UP...ALIGNED IN AN EAST/SE TO WEST/NW ORIENTATION. OUR LATEST
THINKING IS THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST AND POTENTIAL RECORD SETTING
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CHARLESTON QUAD-COUNTY
DISTRICT INTO PERHAPS PARTS OF BEAUFORT...HAMPTON AND ALLENDALE
COUNTIES. BUT THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF
QPF RANGING FROM 8-10 INCHES NORTH AND CENTRAL DOWN TO 1 INCH OR
LESS FAR SOUTH. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THOUGH WILL OCCUR. THE
GROUNDS ARE SATURATED IN MANY AREAS...SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL
ESSENTIALLY JUST RUN-OFF RATHER THAN BEING ABSORBED IN THE GROUND.
A DYNAMIC AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS CLOSED OFF MID AND UPPER LOW WILL
MEANDER IN FAR SW GA AS IT ASSOCIATED TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH THE TROUGH ALOFT. AT
THE SURFACE A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE SITUATED NOT FAR OFF
THE SE COAST WHERE WE FIND A COASTAL WARM FRONT STUCK BETWEEN THE
GULF STREAM AND THE CONTINENTAL SHELF. WHILE THE ONGOING RAINS MAY
ACT TO RE-ENFORCE THE ONGOING WEDGE...THIS IS COUNTER-BALANCED BY A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTH NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE GA/SC COASTS. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PIVOT
TOWARD OR ONSHORE OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS AS MUCH AS 2.5 INCHES WILL BE DRAWN NORTH IN A
DEEP AND RICH TROPICAL FEED OF MOISTURE THAT HAS ITS ORIGINS FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND SW ATLANTIC. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ATOP AN EAST-SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
DOWNSTAIRS GENERATING THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD SETTING
RAINFALL...WHILE IT/S BECOME APPARENT THAT OUR RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...UPPER DIFLUENCE AND STRONG PVA WILL COMBINE
WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL
WARM FRONT AND SURFACE WAVE COMBINE WITH A ROBUST LOW LEVEL JET TO
PRODUCE 100 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA.
IF THE EXTREME RAINFALL IS NOT ENOUGH...THERE IS ALSO THE LOW END
RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE COASTAL WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO
SWING ONSHORE. WHILE THE WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL RESTRICT SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY...THERE IS MODEST 0-1 KM AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES AS
HIGH AS 200 M2/SEC2. FOR NOW THE BEST RISK OF ANY LOW-TOPPED
TORNADOES LOOKS TO BE EAST OF I-95...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SC. FOR ALL SECTIONS GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WE WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR INLAND THE COASTAL WARM
FRONT CAN PENETRATE...WITH A LARGE EAST-WEST GRADIENT TO OCCUR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE ROBUST MID/UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN GA SUNDAY AND THEN INTO THE NEARBY ATLANTIC MONDAY.
THE WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STUCK UNDERNEATH WILL BE LOCATED
OVER OR NEAR SUNDAY BEFORE IT TOO STARTS TO SLIP INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON MONDAY. THE MAIN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL SHIFT NORTH/EAST
DURING SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CONVECTIVE
RAINS. THEN ON MONDAY THE INLAND WEDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND THE
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
SURFACE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS TO PIVOT BACK IN
FROM THE NW. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE CATEGORICAL POPS FAR NORTH
SUNDAY...COVERAGE ELSEWHERE WILL DECREASE INTO THE CHANCE-LIKELY
RANGE...THEN TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT...BACK
UP TO THE CHANCE RANGE ALL SECTIONS MONDAY. TEMPS WILL NOT BE TOO
FAR FROM NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY FILL AND LIFTS OUT TO THE EAST/NE
BY MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OR SHORT WAVE RIDGING
ALOFT THEREAFTER. AN INLAND WEDGE WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MOISTURE HAS
BEEN SCOURED OUT BY THEN TO ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH NO
EXTREMES OF TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH A VERY DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP SPELL PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL DURING THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE. THE MAIN PROBLEMS WILL BE TIMING THE VARIOUS PERIODS OF LOW
VSBYS IN HEAVY RAINS. GIVEN 00Z MODELS AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL
WE SHOW A TEMPO FOR HEAVIER RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
NEARS. PREVAILING HEAVY RAINS ON SAT. OTHER ISSUES MAY INCLUDE TSTMS
AT SOME POINT TODAY. WIND SHEAR BECOMES IMPRESSIVE AND CANNOT RULE
OUT GUSTY CONVECTIVE WINDS IF WE WARM SUFFICIENTLY. IFR CIGS ARE
MOST LIKELY BUT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE.
KSAV...IFR CIGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...CHANCES FOR LIFR CIGS BUT
INCREASING CHANCES THAT SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
KEEP VSBYS FROM GOING BELOW IFR. TODAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS AND THE TERMINAL CLOSE
TO THE EDGE OF EXPECTED RAIN SHIELD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT TIMES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND EVEN THE RISK OF ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AS MIXING SHOULD INCREASE AS THE COASTAL
FRONT MOVES INLAND. ALSO INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
IN RESPONSE TO ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER
ENTRANCE...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE
MARINE AREA SWINGS ONSHORE. STRONG LOW LEVEL JETTING OVER THE SC
WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR NE/EAST WINDS TO PEAK AS HIGH AS 20-30 KT OVER
THE OPEN ATLANTIC...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH THE FLOW WILL BE OFFSHORE
WITH SPEEDS CAPPED AT OR BELOW 15 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD MOST FAVORABLY
WITH THE ONSHORE FETCH TO AS MUCH AS 7-11 FT ON THE SC WATERS AND
RANGING FROM 5-7 FT ACROSS THE 0-20 NM GA WATERS BU UP TO 8-11 FT
FURTHER OUT. THESE ELEVATED SEAS ARE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY SEVERAL
PRIOR DAYS OF ONSHORE WINDS...BUT ALSO NOW DUE TO SWELLS ORIGINATING
FROM HURRICANE JOAQUIN. THESE CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
CONTINUATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR OUR ATLANTIC ZONES.
WE CONSIDERED RAISING AN ADVISORY FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...BUT
DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT WE
HAVE HELD OFF AT THIS TIME AS WE CAPPED WINDS AT 15-20 KT. THERE IS
ALSO A RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEARBY WARM FRONT
WITH MODEST SPIN IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
SUNDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIRAL INLAND OVER THE
CWFA...ALLOWING FOR THE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY AS WINDS
DROP OFF TO 15 KT OR LESS ALL WATERS. BUT SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO
COME DOWN SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES EASTWARD...OUT TO
SEA...ALLOWING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND
WINDS TO EASE. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE DUE TO REMNANT SWELL
ENERGY...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM OUT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WITHIN 20 NM WILL GRADUALLY COME DOWN AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH
TUESDAY. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR A POTENTIAL FOR A RECORD RAINFALL EVENT
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH SUNDAY AND FOR
THE GEORGIA COUNTIES ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA. MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME
DEVIATION IN THE PLACEMENT OF EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL BECOME ALIGNED ACROSS THE CWFA. BUT FOR THE LATEST FORECAST WE
LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE QPF AS DEPICTED BY WPC...BLENDED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND UTILIZING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM OUR
OFFICE. THIS LOOKS TO BE AHEAD OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE CHARLESTON METRO TO NOT FAR FROM THE
BEAUFORT AREA...THEN INLAND TO MONCKS CORNER...WALTERBORO AND PARTS
OF ALLENDALE AND HAMPTON COUNTIES. OUR LATEST STORM TOTAL QPF SHOWS
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS OF 8-12 INCHES IN SC...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL OCCUR.
FARTHER SOUTH...THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS RAINFALL WITH
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN INCH ACROSS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER TO 3-6
INCHES NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER. AGAIN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE AND IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
MAIN AXIS SETTING UP NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
DESPITE THIS FORECAST...KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION OF
WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS SETS UP COULD RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT QPF.
COMPLICATING THE FLOODING SCENARIO IS THE CONTINUATION OF THE
ELEVATED VERY HIGH TIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURS ALONG THE COAST NEAR HIGH TIDE...IT WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE
FLOODING AND RESULT IN A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. THE LATEST SURGE GUIDANCE IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR SHOWS
TIDES REACHING OVER 8 FT WITH HIGH TIDE EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING. IF THIS SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...A VERY
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD EVENT WOULD ENSUE. WE CAN NOT STRESS ENOUGH
THAT ALL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THIS SCENARIO.
FINALLY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIVER FLOODING OVER
THE COMING DAYS ONCE THE CORE OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE ENDED. THE
LATEST SET OF METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS
/MMERF/...SHOW A NUMBER OF RIVERS GOING INTO FLOOD OVER THE NEXT 5
TO 7 DAYS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR TIDAL BERKELEY...
CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TIDES SURPASSING
8 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
RIP CURRENTS...A HIGH RISK FOR LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL
REMAIN AT ALL BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE ELEVATED
SURF...FURTHER COMPLICATED BY MODERATE TO STRONG ON SHORE WINDS OVER
THE SC BEACHES.
HIGH SURF...SEAS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND AND A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WHERE THE STRONGEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR. LATEST
LOCAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS 4 TO 5 FT BREAKERS IMPACTING AT LEAST
CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY COASTAL AREAS. SHOULD THIS COME TO
FRUITION THEN A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WOULD BE REQUIRED. WE HAVE HELD
OFF ON ANY ADVISORY AT THIS TIME GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS
TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WARM FRONT.
AREAS OF BEACH EROSION WILL ALSO OCCUR DUE TO THE WAVE ACTION AND
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
TOP 5 RECORD 3-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL
NORTH CHARLESTON /CHS/...
11.95 INCHES....................6/9/1973-6/11/1973
11.62 INCHES...................6/10/1973-6/12/1973
11.40 INCHES...................9/19/1998-9/21/1998
10.64 INCHES.....................9/4/1987-9/6/1987
10.52 INCHES...................9/21/1998-9/23/1998
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON /CXM/...
12.39 INCHES....................6/9/1973-6/11/1973
11.92 INCHES...................6/10/1973-6/12/1973
11.73 INCHES.....................9/5/1933-9/7/1933
11.72 INCHES.....................9/4/1933-9/6/1933
11.31 INCHES.....................9/4/1987-9/6/1987
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-
139-141.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GAZ087-088-101-
118-119.
SC...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ048>051.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SCZ049-050-052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
&&
$$
ST/RVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH EDGE OF THAT LARGE RAIN AREA TO
OUR SOUTHEAST WILL BRING SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TO MOST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. THE AREA NEAR
INTERSTATE 69 SHOULD SEE THE MOST RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...NO
MATTER WHAT PRECIIPTATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WINDY TODAY BUT THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SKIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY AND THE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING
TREND MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WE HAVE A RATHER UNSUSAL WEATHER SITUATION TODAY ACTUALLY.
THERE IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WELL SO OUR SOUTH...BUT IS BEING CHANNELED TOWARD US NONE THE
LESS DUE TO THE LARGE DEPARTING HIGH OVER SOUHTEAST CANADA BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN QUESITION IS CAN THAT
MOSITURE REALLY MAKE IT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS AND FOR THAT MATTER THE GFS
TOO SHOW MOSITURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THE 1000/850 LAYER AIMDED
AT OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDESNTATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL TO NEAR ZERO MB NEAR 700 MB (INSENTROPIC
LIFT EVENT) AT THE SAME TIME. WHERE THAT IS HAPPENING NOW IT IS
RAINING. SO I HAVE 40 TO 60 PCT POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS ALL LIFTS NORTH AND DISSIPATES SUNDAY. CLEARING
SHOULD FOLLOW MONDAY AND IT WILL BE WARMER.
WINDS WILL CONITNUE TO BE STRONG TODAY BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH MINS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AND STRENGTHEN TO GUST TO
AROUND 25 KTS FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO MVFR LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FROM SE TO NW AS LOW
CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE SE.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AT KAZO...
KLAN... KBTL AND KJXN AND PERHAPS AS FAR NW AS KGRR LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NW AS KMKG THROUGH
06Z SUN. ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20-22 KTS
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME TO OUR HEADLINES. THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LARGE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
CURRENT STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS SW LOWER MI ARE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
346 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
THE NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. A COOL AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS.
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES...MAINLY THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
FIFTIES TODAY.
THERE SHOULD BE MORE HIGH CLOUD THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND MAY OFFSET SOME OF THE COOLING EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT. WE DO NOT EXPECT THICK CLOUDS AND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
SEE SOME FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WE MAY NEED
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER TODAY BEFORE
ISSUING THOSE.
THE FLOW FROM 850MB-700MB WILL TRANSITION FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
HIGH CLOUDS THAN WE WILL SEE TODAY. HIGHS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE FIFTIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
MODEL DIFFERENCES REVEAL THEMSELVES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM. NONE OF THE MODELS CAN AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY OR THE
DEPTH OF AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. THE
ECMWF APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS/GEM AND HAS
BEEN IGNORED. A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS RESULTS IN NO RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON MONDAY. A
FLATTER UPPER FLOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING...BUT AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL
CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HAVE A SMALL POP IN THE NW CORNER OF
KOOCHICHING COUNTY IN THE MORNING AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WHICH IS A RESULT OF BLENDING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. MONDAY
NIGHT FINDS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WITH THE
CONTINUED FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES NW WITH THE SFC HIGH PREVAILING. THIS CONTINUES ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE DAKOTAS. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE ECMWF/GEM KEEP THE MID LEVEL/SFC RIDGING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS RAIN INTO THE AREA ALONG A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NWD INTO NORTHERN MN BY 00Z THURSDAY. USING A BLEND
GIVES SOME LOW POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THE
ECMWF/GFS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE AREA WITH SOME HEALTHY QPF AMOUNTS.
THURSDAY FINDS THE SFC LOW MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH AN UPPER
TROF FOLLOWING BEHIND. HAVE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE SFC LOW TRENDING
DOWNWARD BEHIND THE TROF. LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN CASE THE
SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER AT MOVING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE. KEPT IN A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KDLH...AND KHIB UNTIL 09Z TO 13Z. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPING...AS SEEN IN THE LAST FEW RAP RUNS AND LATEST
NAM. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KDLH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING. LEFT IN A MENTION OF SOME CLOUD
COVER A KDLH DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...COMBINED WITH LIFT
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARDS FROM SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 55 39 53 42 / 0 0 0 10
INL 59 33 57 40 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 59 38 58 43 / 0 0 0 10
HYR 59 33 57 39 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 58 34 56 40 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
108 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
AT 330 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
THE ONLY CLOUD COVER WAS ALONG A PORTION OF THE NORTH SHORE AND
ALSO IN A LOCALIZED AREA OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY EAST WINDS
CONTINUED TO BRING A VERY DRY AND SUNNY DAY TO MOST OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES AT 3 PM WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NEAR 60 AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS PERSISTED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 5 FOOT WAVES REPORTED AT
THE FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR UMD BUOY.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FROST.
WHILE WE HAVE SEEN FROST OR A FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES THROUGH OCTOBER
7TH OF THIS YEAR. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER
THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT...MOST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST. THE
EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN
PICK BACK UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY. STILL LOOKING FOR MORE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURE
WISE IT SHOULD BE REMARKABLY CLOSE TO WHAT IT WAS TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND TO TEMPERATURES. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOWS A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SET
UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING BEGINNING ON MONDAY
THOUGH...WITH AN 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES AND EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER NEAR US ON
MONDAY. THIS BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM OVER EVEN THE
WEEKEND...AND BY MONDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND PUSHES
A WARM FRONT AND PERIOD OF RAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND THE DIFFERENCES IS A WET AND COOL
SOLUTION VS A DRY AND WARMER ONE FOR US. IN GENERAL WOULD FAVOR THE
ECMWF...BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT THAT GREAT AND IT IS DAY 6...SO
HAVE LEFT A GENERIC BLEND AS IT IS WITH CHANCE POPS AND ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE. KEPT IN A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KDLH...AND KHIB UNTIL 09Z TO 13Z. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPING...AS SEEN IN THE LAST FEW RAP RUNS AND LATEST
NAM. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KDLH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SUBSIDING DURING THE EVENING. LEFT IN A MENTION OF SOME CLOUD
COVER A KDLH DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...COMBINED WITH LIFT
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWARDS FROM SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 39 53 40 58 / 0 0 0 0
INL 33 57 39 58 / 0 0 10 20
BRD 38 58 42 61 / 0 0 10 0
HYR 33 57 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 35 57 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
321 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED AND MOIST WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM EAST TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY
TREND BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT
THEN TREND WESTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS PACIFIC
TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER TO THE STATE. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOUND
ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO PICK UP SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE ON THE GRIDS BUT THE OVERALL
STORY REMAINS THE SAME. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE COMBINATION OF LIFTING DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/JET AS WELL AS OROGRAPHICS AND INSTABILITY
WILL AID DEEP CONVECTION AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
WITH QPF THAN THE NAM THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE ALTHOUGH BUYING
MORE INTO THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP. DO
LIKE THE NAMS DEPICTION OF LINEAR SEMI PERMANENT CONVECTION BANDS AS
WE GET WELL INTO THE EVENT. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE
THE NORM THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUDGED TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN WARM ADVECTION PERIODS SUCH AS THE
NEAR TERM ALTHOUGH NUDGED THEM BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LONGER LIVED. EITHER WAY...TEMPS COOL FROM
EAST TO WEST AND LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFES PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE PEAK READINGS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
AND APPEAR TO BE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.
COMBINE THAT WITH A 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATION 500 MB LOW TO THE
WEST AND YOU GET SOME HEFTY MOISTURE ADVECTION AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
DYNAMICS. THE WEAKER DYNAMICS MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW IS A
BIT TOO FAR TO THE WEST BUT IF IT WERE TO NUDGE CLOSER THEN SUNDAY
SHOULD BE VERY ACTIVE AS WELL. RESIDUAL IMPACTS TODAY FROM THE
INITIAL PACIFIC LOW AND DEPARTING 80 KNOT JET. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING PRECIP ENHANCEMENT AS A RESULT BETWEEN ABQ TO
LAS VEGAS ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
THAT AND MOVES THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. MORE
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES...ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. PROBABLY NOT THE COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY HOWEVER. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE NE HIGHLANDS/EASTERN PLAINS. THE SAME
AREA THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY. THINK THE DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE A BETTER LOOK AT HOW THE DEEP CONVECTION EVOLVES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CAN ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
QUESTIONS OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THEY EXIT THE PACIFIC LOW. THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO IN QUESTION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GILA REGION WED AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS HAD IT SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE EAST AND A LITTLE MORE NORTH.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS WHEN THE DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH
THE ECMWF PLACING THE LOW SOUTH OF THE STATE WHILE THE GFS HAS IT
MORE EAST. SORT OF LIKE THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE GFS BASED
ON THE TIME OF YEAR ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARED TO HAVE CAPTURED
THE EAST COAST WX SCENARIO A LITTLE BETTER AS OF LATE. EITHER
WAY...CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
50
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
POOREST VENTILATION TODAY WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WHERE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...EXCELLENT MAX VENT RATES FORECAST BENEATH MODERATELY
STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MIXING PATTERN. MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD...BUT ITS
EASTWARD EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED AS AN INITIAL PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST WELL NORTH OF THE STATE...AND A
SECOND MUCH STRONGER WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. IN
RESPONSE...MID LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OR TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH TIME TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
OVERALL MOISTENING TREND FOR AREAS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIGGING WAVE OF ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN REGION TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA BY SUNDAY. LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
THIS DEEP LOW BOTTOMING OUT JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS NEVADA BY MONDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE MODEL WORLD
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW. GROWING CONFIDENCE THE LOW
WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING FLOW...AT LEAST
BRIEFLY...DURING THE MON-TUE PERIOD AND THIS WILL HAVE IMPORTANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE EARLY WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS AND NAM...FOR
EXAMPLE...SLOWLY LIFT THE LOW NORTHEAST BEGINNING LATER MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING THE LOW CENTER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER NM WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORCE THE LOW ON A MORE DECIDEDLY SOUTHEAST
TRACK...AND IS AMONG THE FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
EITHER WAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER AND ACTIVE/SHOWERY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT UNTIL THURSDAY DO THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A DRYING/WARMING TREND COMMENCING.
FAIR TO LOCALLY POOR VENTILATION WILL PREDOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. KJ
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MTS FREQUENTLY OBSCD. STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT WITH UPPER LOW OVER
WRN WY AND UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED SWD INTO ARIZONA. UPPER LOW TO
PASS THROUGH NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 03/12Z BUT TROUGH WILL REMAIN
AS A SECOND STRONGER LOW SLIDES SWD FROM THE PAC NW. LOW LEVEL
SELY WINDS TO PERSIST THRU 03/21Z CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AND PRECIPITATION
PERSISTING THRU 03/16Z. SE SFC WIND MAY ALLOW MVFR/IFR CIGS TO
SEEP INTO KSAF AREA AFT 03/09Z. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/NE NM TO
PERSIST THROUGH 03/09Z...WITH ISOLD STRONG CELLS WITH HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45KT. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP OVER EAST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NM AFT 03/12Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 80 46 80 56 / 0 0 20 40
DULCE........................... 75 36 73 44 / 10 30 40 70
CUBA............................ 71 43 68 48 / 10 30 30 30
GALLUP.......................... 77 39 75 50 / 0 10 20 30
EL MORRO........................ 75 39 72 47 / 0 20 20 30
GRANTS.......................... 79 41 74 50 / 5 20 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 76 44 72 52 / 5 20 20 40
GLENWOOD........................ 81 47 77 53 / 10 40 30 40
CHAMA........................... 67 38 67 43 / 20 50 30 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 71 48 66 49 / 30 50 50 40
PECOS........................... 66 47 61 46 / 60 80 50 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 69 44 68 46 / 30 60 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 61 39 59 42 / 30 70 40 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 65 36 62 36 / 30 70 60 30
TAOS............................ 70 44 67 47 / 20 50 20 20
MORA............................ 65 43 61 43 / 60 80 40 30
ESPANOLA........................ 77 46 71 48 / 20 40 30 30
SANTA FE........................ 70 49 65 49 / 50 60 40 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 50 67 49 / 40 60 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 78 54 72 55 / 40 50 60 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 79 58 73 57 / 30 30 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 82 53 75 55 / 30 30 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 81 56 78 57 / 20 30 50 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 83 52 77 54 / 40 30 40 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 79 54 75 56 / 30 30 50 40
SOCORRO......................... 82 52 78 56 / 60 30 30 60
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 76 53 68 52 / 50 60 70 60
TIJERAS......................... 77 52 70 53 / 40 60 60 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 76 44 67 45 / 70 70 40 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 69 47 61 45 / 80 70 40 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 76 49 72 48 / 70 70 60 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 79 51 74 51 / 60 60 50 40
RUIDOSO......................... 70 47 64 48 / 60 80 70 50
CAPULIN......................... 62 46 64 48 / 20 60 20 20
RATON........................... 65 45 66 47 / 20 60 20 10
SPRINGER........................ 64 46 68 46 / 20 60 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 63 43 60 43 / 60 70 40 40
CLAYTON......................... 57 45 62 50 / 30 60 30 20
ROY............................. 63 45 61 46 / 60 80 30 30
CONCHAS......................... 68 50 68 50 / 70 80 30 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 72 51 66 49 / 80 80 30 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 50 67 51 / 70 80 50 30
CLOVIS.......................... 69 49 66 51 / 60 80 60 40
PORTALES........................ 73 48 70 50 / 60 80 50 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 71 50 68 51 / 70 90 50 30
ROSWELL......................... 78 57 69 57 / 70 80 60 40
PICACHO......................... 79 50 72 51 / 70 80 50 50
ELK............................. 75 49 65 49 / 80 80 60 60
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
531 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO MAINTAIN A DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY THEN AREAS OF
LIGHTER RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL BE KICKED OUT THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BY THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE STORM MOVING MUCH CLOSER TO
BERMUDA THAN THE U.S. MAINLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN AT 07Z...WHILE ONLY ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
A FEW WEAK-MDTLY STRONG BUT COMPACT UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES WILL
DRIFT NNWD BRINGING LIGHT TO MDT RAINFL AMOUNTS TO THE AREA THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERING TRIMMING
BACK THE RAINFL AMOUNTS BY ABOUT 25 PERCENT...BUT UPSTREAM
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 TENTHS PER HOUR OCCURRING FROM THE D.C. AREA...SWWD
ACROSS CENTRAL VA SUGGESTS BEING PATIENT FOR A BIT LONGER AND
LOOKING AT THE NEXT FEW HRRR RUNS.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS AS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW TAKES ON A
SERLY COMPONENT AS THE HUGE UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN STATES DIGS
AND TAKES ON A NEG TILT...EJECTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SREF AND 00Z GFS OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE /WHICH RANGES FROM ABOUT
ONE-QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH/ LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE START TIME OF THE PRECIP AND
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EARLY TODAY...WHILE THE NAM/S VERY LIGHT QPF
/FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DRIZZLE/...WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE DRY SIDE. 03/06Z HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TODAY WILL OCCUR FROM THE STATE COLLEGE AREA...SOUTH AND
WEST TWD THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
MORE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THE RAIN GOES LIKE THIS...
FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS - LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN BY NOON.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES - LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 1
OR 2 PM EXPECT TO SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE LINGERING
AFTERWARD.
AND OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS...CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR WITH JUST
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY. STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING TO DRIZZLE AFTER 3 PM. EXPECT TO SEE
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY 3 PM.
EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AVERAGING IN THE 40S...WHILE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S RESPECTIVELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN PENN. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEG F COLDER THAT THE ACTUAL AIR TEMP TODAY.
THESE CHILLY AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE 15-18F BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER...AND THE GUSTY EAST TO NE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FROM NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE PERIODS OF
RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MID /OR MORE
LIKELY LATE/ AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY
BUILDS WESTWARD AND SHUNTS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REGION AND OFF TO OUR WEST.
AFTER A WET MORNING...I USED A BLEND OF MOS AND SREF POPS FOR THE
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL MAY BE A BIT ON THE PESSIMISTIC
SIDE.
IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID
50S FROM NW TO SE.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAFL AS PWS STEADILY DECLINE /AND REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD/ BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH A DECREASING POP TREND AND DRY
WEATHER A GOOD BET HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE LATEST
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHEAST CLOSED LOW WHICH
ALLOWS THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NRN TIER
STATES. ASIDE FROM A WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT AROUND MID
WEEK...MOST OF THE MON-THU PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS
BACK TO EARLY OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS. RAIN RISK SHOULD INCREASE
BY FRIDAY 10/9 BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z TAFS ISSUED...THOUGH VERY LIMITED METAR DATA AVAILABLE DUE TO
FAA/NWS COMMS LINK ISSUES.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH COMBINED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL KEEP A DEEP-MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 20-25MPH...EVEN A BIT HIGHER OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TERMINALS OF KMDT/KLNS. ADDED A BIT OF LLWS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS LL WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
TO 30-40MPH.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SE TO NW OVERNIGHT...WITH
VSBY REDUCTIONS DEVELOPING AS WELL AS STEADIER RAIN PUSHES
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BY
SUNRISE AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY...THOUGH
CIGS MAY RISE TO MVFR FROM KIPT-KMDT LATER IN THE DAY IF SOME
DRIER AIR SLIPS IN FROM A MORE NE TRAJECTORY.
WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS PERSIST SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PERIODS OF RAIN/WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. BREEZY EAST WIND.
SUN...WIDESPRAED CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH RAIN LIKELY...ESP SOUTH.
BREEZY NE WIND ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MON-WED...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
338 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO MAINTAIN A DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY THEN AREAS OF
LIGHTER RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL BE KICKED OUT THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BY THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE STORM MOVING MUCH CLOSER TO
BERMUDA THAN THE U.S. MAINLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
AFFECTING THE SOUTERN TIER OF PENN AT 07Z...WHILE ONLY ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS AS THE DEEP LAYER FLOW TAKES ON A
SELY COMPONENT AS THE HUGE UPPER LOW OVER THE SERN STATES DIGS AND
TAKES ON A NEG TILT...EJECTING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVES
ACROSS THE REGION.
SREF AND 00Z GFS OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE /WHICH RANGES FROM ABOUT
ONE-QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH/ LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE START TIME OF THE PRECIP AND
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EARLY TODAY...WHILE THE NAM/S VERY LIGHT QPF
/FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DRIZZLE/...WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE DRY SIDE. 03/06Z HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TODAY WILL OCCUR FROM THE STATE COLLEGE AREA...SOUTH AND
WEST TWD THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
A FEW WEAK-MDTLY STRONG BUT COMPACT UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES WILL
DRIFT NNWD BRINGING LIGHT TO MDT RAINFL AMOUNTS TO THE AREA THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERING TRIMMING
BACK THE RAINFL AMOUNTS BY ABOUT 25 PERCENT...BUT UPSTREAM
AMOUNTS OF 1-2 TENTHS PER HOUR OCCURRING FROM THE D.C. AREA...SWWD
ACROSS CENTRAL VA SUGGESTS BEING PATIENT FOR A BIT LONGER AND
LOOKING AT THE NEXT FEW HRRR RUNS.
EARLY MONRING LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AVERAGING IN THE 40S...WHILE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S RESPECTIVELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN PENN. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEG F COLDER THAT THE ACTUAL AIR TEMP TODAY.
THESE CHILLY AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE 15-18F BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER...AND THE GUSTY EAST TO NE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FROM NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE PERIODS OF
RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MID /OR MORE
LIKELY LATE/ AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY
BUILDS WESTWARD AND SHUNTS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REGION AND OFF TO OUR WEST.
AFTER A WET MORNING...I USED A BLEND OF MOS AND SREF POPS FOR THE
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL MAY BE A BIT ON THE PESSIMISTIC
SIDE.
IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID
50S FROM NW TO SE.
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAFL AS PWS STEADILY DECLINE /AND REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD/ BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH A DECREASING POP TREND AND DRY
WEATHER A GOOD BET HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE LATEST
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHEAST CLOSED LOW WHICH
ALLOWS THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NRN TIER
STATES. ASIDE FROM A WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT AROUND MID
WEEK...MOST OF THE MON-THU PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS
BACK TO EARLY OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS. RAIN RISK SHOULD INCREASE
BY FRIDAY 10/9 BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z TAFS ISSUED...THOUGH VERY LIMITED METAR DATA AVAILABLE DUE TO
FAA/NWS COMMS LINK ISSUES.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH COMBINED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL KEEP A DEEP-MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 20-25MPH...EVEN A BIT HIGHER OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TERMINALS OF KMDT/KLNS. ADDED A BIT OF LLWS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS LL WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
TO 30-40MPH.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SE TO NW OVERNIGHT...WITH
VSBY REDUCTIONS DEVELOPING AS WELL AS STEADIER RAIN PUSHES
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BY
SUNRISE AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY...THOUGH
CIGS MAY RISE TO MVFR FROM KIPT-KMDT LATER IN THE DAY IF SOME
DRIER AIR SLIPS IN FROM A MORE NE TRAJECTORY.
WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS PERSIST SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PERIODS OF RAIN/WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. BREEZY EAST WIND.
SUN...WIDESPRAED CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH RAIN LIKELY...ESP SOUTH.
BREEZY NE WIND ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MON-WED...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
229 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE MAP AT 07Z SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR
WEATHER PATTERN, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATED TO OUR EAST AND
A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PENSACOLA. RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW, SO MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE SOME DRYING. TODAY MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW GFS GUIDANCE, AS SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST AND
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH. THE HRRR BRINGS AN AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO THIS WILL ALSO HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVES FARTHER
NORTH, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST AND ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THUS, LOOK FOR A LONG DRY PERIOD STARTING MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING RAPIDLY AND REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FROM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 59 56 75 59 / 40 30 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 59 54 72 56 / 30 30 20 10
CROSSVILLE 59 58 70 56 / 70 50 30 20
COLUMBIA 60 54 73 57 / 30 30 30 10
LAWRENCEBURG 60 53 73 58 / 30 30 30 10
WAVERLY 60 53 72 57 / 20 30 20 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
330 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
08Z ANALYSIS SHOWS MASSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING
MOST OF THE EASTERN NOAM CONTINENT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SO FAR ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94 HAVE ONLY DROPPED
INTO THE MID 30S...SO MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL FROST ADVISORY BEFORE
8 AM CDT.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS TO AROUND 850 HPA WITH 20 KTS TO
MIX TO THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...SOME EASTERLY BREEZES UP TO 20
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN A DROP IN 925 HPA TEMPERATURES OF 1-2
DEGREES CELSIUS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S. ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI...BUT WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO RE-EVALUATE
TO AVOID DUPLICATE HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS REMNANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
DEPARTING SOUTHEAST U.S. TROUGH RETROGRADES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION...A CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE
WILL SLIDE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST
IF NOT ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS CANADA.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A BIT EACH
DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING 70 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.
COMPARED TO THE 02.00Z MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL RUNS...TODAY/S GFS/
ECMWF ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BOTH MODELS NOW SHOW A BROAD SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH MOVING INTO TX
BY LATE WEEK...ALLOWING ANOTHER CANADIAN TROUGH TO IMPACT THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MAINLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SHOWERS GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY FOR
MID-OCTOBER...BUT GFS IS SHOWING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY...SO MAY
NEED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION IN LATER FORECASTS. COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR A MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY. DAILY
HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS SKIES SKC-SCT WITH NO IMPACTS TO VSBYS. MARGINAL LLWS TONIGHT
WITH RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MID 30 KTS BY 1400 FT AT
KLSE/KRST TIL 09Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-034-
042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR. SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH SURFACE RIDGE ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL.
THE 02.12Z GFS/NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING SURFACE RIDGE
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST CAN BE EXPECTED TO FORM
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...PATCHY FROST WILL FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS
EXPECTED TO WRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA PER THE 02.12Z GFS/NAM 925 AND 850MB RH FIELDS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LATEST 02.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SATURATION FROM NEAR THE SURFACE TO AROUND 850MB OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 09Z MONDAY. VERTICAL
MOTION WEAK NEAR THE SURFACE TO 850MB OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE
02.12Z MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF DRIZZLE OUT
OF THE FORECAST.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 02.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02.12Z GFS/ECMWF IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN PUSHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE 02.12Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
02.12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINIMAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH ATMOSPHERE COLUMN DRY AND SURFACE
RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS SKIES SKC-SCT WITH NO IMPACTS TO VSBYS. MARGINAL LLWS TONIGHT
WITH RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MID 30 KTS BY 1400 FT AT
KLSE/KRST TIL 09Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-
042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1159 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
16Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX AND
UNPROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
TODAY. MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR WEATHER IS A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW FEATURE OVER AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE
REGION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH HAS PUSHED THE DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE IT FEEDS
NORTHWARD INTO A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. QUITE THE DRY AIRMASS ALOFT HAS ARRIVED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE WAKE OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME. ALL
THE HEAVY RAIN IS TO REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH
OUR OWN MORE LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THAT WILL BE DISCUSSED
FURTHER DOWN IN THE DISCUSSION.
THE 03/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED WELL THE EXTENT OF THE DRY
AIR ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN
EXTENDS UP TO AROUND 850MB...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DRYING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPOPAUSE. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE QUITE HIGH
THROUGH THIS DEEP LAYER. THE PW VALUE SAMPLE BY THE SOUNDING WAS
JUST UNDER 1" THIS MORNING...WHICH FALLS ONLY AROUND THE 10TH
PERCENTILE OF VALUES FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
LOBES OF ENERGY ARE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST...WITH ONE JUST NOW EXITING THE REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW ISO-SCT SHOWERS OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHALLOW IN NATURE
DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT...AND HENCE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE
AND NOT TALL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. MAJORITY OF THE SCT LIGHT SHOWER HAVE MIGRATED SOUTH OF
THE TAMPA BAY AREA ACROSS THE SUNCOAST...ALTHOUGH NEW ACTIVITY IS
BEING DETECTED WELL OUT OF THE GULF...AND SO WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST.
REGARDLESS...ANY SHOWERS WILL JUST BE OF THE PASSING
VARIETY...WITH MOST OF THE DAY WILL DRY AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE DRY AIR ALOFT OVERTOP THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE LAYER HAS BEEN IDEAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS.
THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING STUBBORN...AND HAVE HAD TO INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER PERCENTAGES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NATURE COAST THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP OVER THE
COMING HOURS...BUT A GENERAL FORECAST OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SEEMS
APPROPRIATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SCT SHOWERS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD
NOT BE ENOUGH TO RUIN MUCH IN THE WAY OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES FOR A PASSING SHOWER WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THIS WILL ALSO BE WHERE THE MOST SUN IS SEEN
THE REST OF THE DAY. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER
CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN TO BREAK INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MORE
IN THE WAY OF SUNNY BREAKS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AFTER 17-18Z.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE FOR OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND IS A LOBE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY ORIENTED OVER CENTRAL AL/MS. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND THEN EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
THIS IS A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TO BE CROSSING
THE GULF...AND THE GUIDANCE ENSEMBLES SHOW A VERY HEALTHY SWATH OF
DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT/QG CONVERGENCE PIVOTING TOWARD
AND ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL STILL BE QUITE DRY...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FCST
BY MANY OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BIT
MORE MOISTURE BELOW 20KFT THAN WE CURRENTLY SEE ALOFT TODAY. THE
STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...COMBINED WITH THIS ADDED COLUMN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS (PERIOD OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS) MOVING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA...AND THEN INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD SEE GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXCLUDING LEVY COUNTY. THERE IS
ACTUALLY VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SHARP CUTOFF IN QPF NORTH OF
CITRUS COUNTY. WILL STILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR LEVY...BUT
THE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR NWP GUIDANCE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LATEST NAM/SREF/CAM GUIDANCE
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OFF THE EASTERN
GULF AFTER 06-09Z SUNDAY MORNING WITHIN THE SWATH OF DEEP QG FORCING
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND QUICKLY MIGRATE TOWARD THE COAST.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ASHORE AND
SPREADING INLAND THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY. NOT THAT IT WILL
BE RAINING ALL DAY...BUT RATHER THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER AT JUST
ABOUT ANY TIME WILL BE THERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...BUT WILL HAVE TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA BASED ON
CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE MAIN FORCING WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT EAST OF THE
AREA...SO WILL SHOW A SLOW DECLINE IN POP COVERAGE AFTER 21Z...BUT
WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - NEXT FRIDAY)...
A POTENT CUTOFF LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRIVEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE PERIPHERY OF THE COMPACT UPPER LOW.
THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...THE BOUNDARY WILL MORE OR LESS WASH OUT...AS THE UPPER LOW
EVENTUALLY PULLS AWAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE FAIRLY DRY DAYS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY MOVE INLAND FROM THE EAST COAST...BUT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG THE SUN OR
NATURE COASTS.
MORE OF A LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...AS
WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...AND
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
FAVOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES...MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE AROUND OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE...AS DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. BY MID TO LATE WEEK...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S LIKELY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITION ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS
WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR ALL TERMINALS.
PASSING MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
NORTHEAST...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE WEEK. NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINS WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES. WINDS THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 69 81 71 / 30 40 40 30
FMY 85 72 84 72 / 50 30 30 30
GIF 84 67 84 68 / 10 10 40 30
SRQ 81 74 82 72 / 40 30 50 30
BKV 80 63 81 66 / 10 20 40 30
SPG 81 72 81 73 / 30 40 50 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...AUSTIN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
619 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING HEAVY RAIN.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
DRYING WILL OCCUR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE H5 LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BORDER THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAY A SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE PEE DEE REGION EARLY TODAY TO THE CENTRAL
SAVANNAH RIVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PLUS AN H85 JET WILL RESULT IN A BAND
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROPICAL
CONNECTION WITH THE MOISTURE AND THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 2 INCHES IN THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS INDICATED THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMOUNTS. THE NAM...
ECMWF...SREF MEAN HAD LOWER AMOUNTS. LEANED TOWARD THE SREF MEAN.
BELIEVE TOTALS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY 4 TO 8 INCHES AND
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FLOODING COULD RESULT. RADAR TRENDS AND THE
HRRR SUGGESTS THE HEAVY RAIN FOCUS WILL GENERALLY SHIFT FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE HRRR DISPLAYS THE MAIN BAND EXTENDING
THROUGH THE SOUTH MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG H85 EASTERLY JET
WITH HIGH MOISTURE. EXPECT DIFLUENT FLOW NORTH OF THE H5 LOW. RAIN
RATES MAY BE DIMINISHED BECAUSE OF LESS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH SATURATED GROUND AND CONTINUED TROPICAL MOISTURE
THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD WILL BE RIVER
FLOODING.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE H5 LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OFF THE COAST MONDAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE. EXPECT DRYING
TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY IN
AN ONSHORE FLOW. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR WITH IFR AT TIMES DURING MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WITH EAST FLOW.
RAIN...PATCHY AT THE MOMENT AT AREA TERMINALS WILL INCREASE TOWARD
MORNING...BECOMING MODERATE AND HEAVY AT TIMES AT CAE/CUB AND OGB
THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVIER RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF AGS/DNL
TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EAST 1O TO 20 KNOTS...A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHTER WINDS IN THE AGS AREA WHERE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1104 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY BUT THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR
MONDAY AND THE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. LOW LEVEL DRY
WEDGE IS STILL SEEN ON LAPS SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT
SFC OBS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI SHOW THAT THE
30 TO 35 DBZ ECHOES WILL BE OVERCOMING THAT.
MAX TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S STILL LOOK GOOD. THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAXES WILL
BE LOWER THERE...AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WE HAVE A RATHER UNUSUAL WEATHER SITUATION TODAY ACTUALLY.
THERE IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WELL SO OUR SOUTH...BUT IS BEING CHANNELED TOWARD US NONE THE
LESS DUE TO THE LARGE DEPARTING HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS CAN THAT
MOISTURE REALLY MAKE IT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS AND FOR THAT MATTER THE GFS
TOO SHOW MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THE 1000/850 LAYER AIMED ATOUR
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS FALL TO NEAR ZERO MB NEAR 700 MB (INSENTROPIC LIFT EVENT)
AT THE SAME TIME. WHERE THAT IS HAPPENING NOW IT IS RAINING. SO I
HAVE 40 TO 60 PCT POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS ALL
LIFTS NORTH AND DISSIPATES SUNDAY. CLEARING SHOULD FOLLOW MONDAY
AND IT WILL BE WARMER.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG TODAY BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH MINS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS TODAY WILL SEE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIME BUT CEILINGS WILL STAY ABOVE 3000 FT
MOST OF DAY. HOWEVER SUNSET APPROACHES THE MOISTURE FROM THE
SYSTEM TO OR SOUTH WILL BRING THE TREAT OF RAIN AND LOWER
CEILING. I WOULD EXPECT OVERNIGHT ALL SITES WILL SEE SOME RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME TO OUR HEADLINES. THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LARGE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
CURRENT STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS SW LOWER MI ARE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
A SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH EDGE OF THAT LARGE RAIN AREA TO
OUR SOUTHEAST WILL BRING SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TO MOST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. THE AREA NEAR
INTERSTATE 69 SHOULD SEE THE MOST RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...NO
MATTER WHAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WINDY TODAY BUT THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SKIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY AND THE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING
TREND MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WE HAVE A RATHER UNUSUAL WEATHER SITUATION TODAY ACTUALLY.
THERE IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WELL SO OUR SOUTH...BUT IS BEING CHANNELED TOWARD US NONE THE
LESS DUE TO THE LARGE DEPARTING HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS CAN THAT
MOISTURE REALLY MAKE IT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS AND FOR THAT MATTER THE GFS
TOO SHOW MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THE 1000/850 LAYER AIMEDAT
OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDENSATIONPRESSURE
DEFICITS FALL TO NEAR ZERO MB NEAR 700 MB (INSENTROPIC LIFT EVENT)
AT THE SAME TIME. WHERE THAT IS HAPPENING NOW IT IS RAINING. SO I
HAVE 40 TO 60 PCT POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS ALL
LIFTS NORTH AND DISSIPATES SUNDAY. CLEARING SHOULD FOLLOW MONDAY
AND IT WILL BE WARMER.
WINDS WILL CONITNUE TO BE STRONG TODAY BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH MINS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 743 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS TODAY WILL SEE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIME BUT CEILINGS WILL STAY ABOVE 3000 FT
MOST OF DAY. HOWEVER SUNSET APPROCHES THE MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM
TO OR SOUTH WILL BRING THE THEAT OF RAIN AND LOWER CEILING. I
WOULD EXPECT OVERNIGHT ALL SITES WILL SEE SOME RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME TO OUR HEADLINES. THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LARGE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
CURRENT STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS SW LOWER MI ARE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
543 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MOIST LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAM- LEVEL ENERGY MAINTAINING AREAS OF MVFR
TO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AND -SHRA/-TSRA NEAR AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY SC TO EC NM.
MEANWHILE... GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NE NM
PROVIDING ENHANCED UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR
CIGS AND VSBY IN BR/FG FROM KRTN AND KLVS TO VICINITY OF KTCC. MT
TOPS FREQUENTLY OBSCD. FOCUS FOR PRECIP AND ASSOCD MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR IMPACTS THROUGH THE DAY WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TARGETING EC/SE NM AFTER 18Z. SE
SFC WIND WILL ALLOW MVFR/IFR CIGS TO IMPACT KSAF AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST 16Z. WILL INCLUDE VC PLACEHOLDER AT KABQ FOR THE PM HOURS
ONLY BUT DO ANTICIPATE SOME LOW CLOUDS TOPPING THE SANDIAS THIS AM
OWING TO WEAK EASTERLY FLOW. KJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...321 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED AND MOIST WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM EAST TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY
TREND BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT
THEN TREND WESTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS PACIFIC
TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER TO THE STATE. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOUND
ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO PICK UP SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE ON THE GRIDS BUT THE OVERALL
STORY REMAINS THE SAME. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE COMBINATION OF LIFTING DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/JET AS WELL AS OROGRAPHICS AND INSTABILITY
WILL AID DEEP CONVECTION AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
WITH QPF THAN THE NAM THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE ALTHOUGH BUYING
MORE INTO THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP. DO
LIKE THE NAMS DEPICTION OF LINEAR SEMI PERMANENT CONVECTION BANDS AS
WE GET WELL INTO THE EVENT. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE
THE NORM THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUDGED TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN WARM ADVECTION PERIODS SUCH AS THE
NEAR TERM ALTHOUGH NUDGED THEM BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LONGER LIVED. EITHER WAY...TEMPS COOL FROM
EAST TO WEST AND LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFES PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE PEAK READINGS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
AND APPEAR TO BE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.
COMBINE THAT WITH A 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATION 500 MB LOW TO THE
WEST AND YOU GET SOME HEFTY MOISTURE ADVECTION AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
DYNAMICS. THE WEAKER DYNAMICS MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW IS A
BIT TOO FAR TO THE WEST BUT IF IT WERE TO NUDGE CLOSER THEN SUNDAY
SHOULD BE VERY ACTIVE AS WELL. RESIDUAL IMPACTS TODAY FROM THE
INITIAL PACIFIC LOW AND DEPARTING 80 KNOT JET. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING PRECIP ENHANCEMENT AS A RESULT BETWEEN ABQ TO
LAS VEGAS ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
THAT AND MOVES THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. MORE
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES...ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. PROBABLY NOT THE COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY HOWEVER. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE NE HIGHLANDS/EASTERN PLAINS. THE SAME
AREA THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY. THINK THE DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE A BETTER LOOK AT HOW THE DEEP CONVECTION EVOLVES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CAN ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
QUESTIONS OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THEY EXIT THE PACIFIC LOW. THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO IN QUESTION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GILA REGION WED AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS HAD IT SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE EAST AND A LITTLE MORE NORTH.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS WHEN THE DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH
THE ECMWF PLACING THE LOW SOUTH OF THE STATE WHILE THE GFS HAS IT
MORE EAST. SORT OF LIKE THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE GFS BASED
ON THE TIME OF YEAR ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARED TO HAVE CAPTURED
THE EAST COAST WX SCENARIO A LITTLE BETTER AS OF LATE. EITHER
WAY...CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
50
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
POOREST VENTILATION TODAY WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WHERE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...EXCELLENT MAX VENT RATES FORECAST BENEATH MODERATELY
STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MIXING PATTERN. MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD...BUT ITS
EASTWARD EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED AS AN INITIAL PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST WELL NORTH OF THE STATE...AND A
SECOND MUCH STRONGER WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. IN
RESPONSE...MID LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OR TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH TIME TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
OVERALL MOISTENING TREND FOR AREAS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIGGING WAVE OF ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN REGION TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA BY SUNDAY. LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
THIS DEEP LOW BOTTOMING OUT JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS NEVADA BY MONDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE MODEL WORLD
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW. GROWING CONFIDENCE THE LOW
WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING FLOW...AT LEAST
BRIEFLY...DURING THE MON-TUE PERIOD AND THIS WILL HAVE IMPORTANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE EARLY WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS AND NAM...FOR
EXAMPLE...SLOWLY LIFT THE LOW NORTHEAST BEGINNING LATER MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING THE LOW CENTER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER NM WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORCE THE LOW ON A MORE DECIDEDLY SOUTHEAST
TRACK...AND IS AMONG THE FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
EITHER WAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER AND ACTIVE/SHOWERY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT UNTIL THURSDAY DO THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A DRYING/WARMING TREND COMMENCING.
FAIR TO LOCALLY POOR VENTILATION WILL PREDOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. KJ
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MTS FREQUENTLY OBSCD. STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT WITH UPPER LOW OVER
WRN WY AND UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED SWD INTO ARIZONA. UPPER LOW TO
PASS THROUGH NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 03/12Z BUT TROUGH WILL REMAIN
AS A SECOND STRONGER LOW SLIDES SWD FROM THE PAC NW. LOW LEVEL
SELY WINDS TO PERSIST THRU 03/21Z CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AND PRECIPITATION
PERSISTING THRU 03/16Z. SE SFC WIND MAY ALLOW MVFR/IFR CIGS TO
SEEP INTO KSAF AREA AFT 03/09Z. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/NE NM TO
PERSIST THROUGH 03/09Z...WITH ISOLD STRONG CELLS WITH HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45KT. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP OVER EAST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NM AFT 03/12Z.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1046 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
No update planned at this time, but will watch evolution of
showers/storms in northwest Oklahoma closely. Recent runs of the
HRRR bring the ongoing showers and storms into northeast Oklahoma,
generally along and west of Highway 75 before dissipation. Given
the decreasing trend in the area radar mosaic and morning
soundings, current thinking is that they will not make it this far
east. 12Z Norman and Springfield soundings indicate fairly dry
low levels in the area, and given the northeasterly low level flow
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, this should
continue. RAP isentropic fields show fairly substantial
condensational pressure deficits through the afternoon,
reinforcing this line of thinking. Have increased POPs in the
grids west of Highway 75 just a bit, but still below mentionable
levels, hence the lack of a need for an official update. Other
weather elements, including sky cover, which already indicated an
increasing trend, remain on track.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 12Z TAFS, patchy fog across a portion of Northwest
Arkansas this morning will continue to affect KFYV for another
hour or so. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
24 hour forecast period at all sites.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Pleasant autumn weather will continue for the next few days as
ridging at the surface and aloft prevails. Quite a bit of
cloudiness will spill over the upper ridge into the area,
especially tonight through Monday, but a dry low level airmass is
expected to preclude measurable rainfall. Would not be surprised
to see a few sprinkles though at some point over the next couple
days.
A warming trend will take place next week with temperatures
returning to above normal levels by midweek. The models differ
greatly on the handling of an upper level storm system that will
be moving out of the southwest U.S. during the middle to latter
part of next week. The GFS is much more progressive than the ECMWF
and UKMET resulting in a cooler and wetter solution late next
week. The European models close off the low well to our southwest
which would result in a much warmer and drier solution. For now
will stick to a compromise solution, which results in low pops
late next week along with temperatures well above the GFS solution
but well below the steamy ECMWF.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days
although if cloud cover becomes too extensive, diurnal ranges may
be less than forecast.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
754 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO MAINTAIN A DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY THEN AREAS OF
LIGHTER RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL BE KICKED OUT THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BY THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE STORM MOVING MUCH CLOSER TO
BERMUDA THAN THE U.S. MAINLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN AT 07Z...WHILE ONLY ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
A FEW WEAK-MDTLY STRONG /BUT COMPACT/ UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES WILL
DRIFT NNWD ACRS PENN...BRINGING A STEADY LIGHT TO MDT RAINFL
AMOUNTS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE VERY EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAIN FALLING OVER PRACTICALLY ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN AT
1030Z WILL OVERSPREAD THE NW MTNS BETWEEN 12-14Z...WITH THE DEEP
LAYER FLOW TAKES ON A SERLY COMPONENT AS THE HUGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE SERN STATES DIGS AND TAKES ON A NEG TILT...EJECTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SREF AND 00Z GFS OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE /WHICH RANGES FROM ABOUT
ONE-QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH/ LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE START TIME OF THE PRECIP AND
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EARLY TODAY...WHILE THE NAM/S VERY LIGHT QPF
/FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DRIZZLE/...WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE DRY SIDE. 03/06Z HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TODAY WILL OCCUR FROM THE STATE COLLEGE AREA...SOUTH AND
WEST TWD THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
MORE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THE RAIN GOES LIKE THIS...
FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS - LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN BY NOON.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES - LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 1
OR 2 PM EXPECT TO SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE LINGERING
AFTERWARD.
AND OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS...CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR WITH JUST
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY. STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING TO DRIZZLE AFTER 3 PM. EXPECT TO SEE
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY 3 PM.
EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AVERAGING IN THE 40S...WHILE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S RESPECTIVELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN PENN. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEG F COLDER THAT THE ACTUAL AIR TEMP TODAY.
THESE CHILLY AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE 15-18F BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER...AND THE GUSTY EAST TO NE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER.
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FROM NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE PERIODS OF
RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY /AND 15-18Z OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY BUILDS WESTWARD AND SHUNTS THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION AND OFF TO OUR WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND RIDGE SHROUDING FOG CONTINUES
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR FALL OFF JUST A
FEW DEG F. LOWS WILL BE IN THE L-M 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F ELSEWHERE.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST SUNDAY. ASIDE FROM THE
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE
COMPARATIVELY DRY...AND MILDER BY 10-12 DEG F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHEAST CLOSED LOW WHICH
ALLOWS THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NRN TIER
STATES. ASIDE FROM A WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT AROUND MID
WEEK...MOST OF THE MON-THU PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS
BACK TO EARLY OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS. RAIN RISK SHOULD INCREASE
BY FRIDAY 10/9 BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
METAR DATA FLOWING AGAIN AFTER EARLIER FAA/NWS COMMS LINK ISSUES.
DEEP MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10-15MPH RANGE...WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25MPH ESP OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TERMINALS OF
KMDT/KLNS. ADDED A BIT OF LLWS THROUGH MIDDAY AS LL WINDS ALOFT
INCREASING TO 30-40MPH.
WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS HAVE TAKEN HOLD AS A STEADIER RAIN PUSHES
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH VARIABLE CEILINGS. CHANCE THAT CIGS MAY
RISE TO MVFR AT KIPT LATER IN THE DAY IF SOME DRIER AIR CAN SLIP
IN ON A MORE NE WIND TRAJECTORY.
WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS PERSIST TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...WIDESPREAD CIG REDUCTIONS LIKELY...ESP SOUTH AND WEST.
BREEZY SOUTH.
MON-WED...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
655 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO MAINTAIN A DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY THEN AREAS OF
LIGHTER RAIN OR DRIZZLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL BE KICKED OUT THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY BY THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE STORM MOVING MUCH CLOSER TO
BERMUDA THAN THE U.S. MAINLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN AT 07Z...WHILE ONLY ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENN.
A FEW WEAK-MDTLY STRONG /BUT COMPACT/ UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXES WILL
DRIFT NNWD ACRS PENN...BRINGING A STEADY LIGHT TO MDT RAINFL
AMOUNTS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE VERY EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAIN FALLING OVER PRACTICALLY ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENN AT
1030Z WILL OVERSPREAD THE NW MTNS BETWEEN 12-14Z...WITH THE DEEP
LAYER FLOW TAKES ON A SERLY COMPONENT AS THE HUGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE SERN STATES DIGS AND TAKES ON A NEG TILT...EJECTING THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SREF AND 00Z GFS OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE /WHICH RANGES FROM ABOUT
ONE-QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH/ LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO THE START TIME OF THE PRECIP AND
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EARLY TODAY...WHILE THE NAM/S VERY LIGHT QPF
/FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DRIZZLE/...WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE DRY SIDE. 03/06Z HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TODAY WILL OCCUR FROM THE STATE COLLEGE AREA...SOUTH AND
WEST TWD THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
MORE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THE RAIN GOES LIKE THIS...
FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES...LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS - LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...THEN TAPER TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN BY NOON.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FEW LAYERS OF PA COUNTIES - LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 1
OR 2 PM EXPECT TO SEE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE LINGERING
AFTERWARD.
AND OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS...CLOUDY SKIES WILL OCCUR WITH JUST
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY. STEADIER LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL
DEVELOP BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING TO DRIZZLE AFTER 3 PM. EXPECT TO SEE
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY 3 PM.
EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AVERAGING IN THE 40S...WHILE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S RESPECTIVELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN PENN. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEG F COLDER THAT THE ACTUAL AIR TEMP TODAY.
THESE CHILLY AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE 15-18F BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER...AND THE GUSTY EAST TO NE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL
EVEN COLDER.
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FROM NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE PERIODS OF
RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY /AND 15-18Z OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY BUILDS WESTWARD AND SHUNTS THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION AND OFF TO OUR WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND RIDGE SHROUDING FOG CONTINUES
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR FALL OFF JUST A
FEW DEG F. LOWS WILL BE IN THE L-M 40S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F ELSEWHERE.
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST SUNDAY. ASIDE FROM THE
FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE...SUNDAY SHOULD BE
COMPARATIVELY DRY...AND MILDER BY 10-12 DEG F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN DEPICTING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHEAST CLOSED LOW WHICH
ALLOWS THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NRN TIER
STATES. ASIDE FROM A WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT AROUND MID
WEEK...MOST OF THE MON-THU PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS
BACK TO EARLY OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS. RAIN RISK SHOULD INCREASE
BY FRIDAY 10/9 BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z TAFS ISSUED...THOUGH VERY LIMITED METAR DATA AVAILABLE DUE TO
FAA/NWS COMMS LINK ISSUES.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH COMBINED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL KEEP A DEEP-MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE IN
THE 10-15MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 20-25MPH...EVEN A BIT HIGHER OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TERMINALS OF KMDT/KLNS. ADDED A BIT OF LLWS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS LL WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
TO 30-40MPH.
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SE TO NW OVERNIGHT...WITH
VSBY REDUCTIONS DEVELOPING AS WELL AS STEADIER RAIN PUSHES
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BY
SUNRISE AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY...THOUGH
CIGS MAY RISE TO MVFR FROM KIPT-KMDT LATER IN THE DAY IF SOME
DRIER AIR SLIPS IN FROM A MORE NE TRAJECTORY.
WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS PERSIST SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...PERIODS OF RAIN/WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS. BREEZY EAST WIND.
SUN...WIDESPRAED CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH RAIN LIKELY...ESP SOUTH.
BREEZY NE WIND ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MON-WED...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
630 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER PATTERN, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATED TO OUR EAST AND
A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PENSACOLA. RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW, SO MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE SOME DRYING. TODAY MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW GFS GUIDANCE, AS SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST AND
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH. THE HRRR BRINGS AN AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO THIS WILL ALSO HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVES FARTHER
NORTH, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST AND ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THUS, LOOK FOR A LONG DRY PERIOD STARTING MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING RAPIDLY AND REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FROM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POUR INTO MIDDLE TN FROM THE EAST.
THIS IS KEEPING CLOUD DECKS LOW AND OFF AND ON RAIN MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE
WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND LOWERED VIS WITH ANY RAIN THAT PASSES
OVER A TERMINAL.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED OF
10-12 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 18-20 KTS.
UNGER
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
913 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WENT AHEAD AND LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME AT 9 AM
THIS MORNING. AREA WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS THE WYDOT WEBCAM ON I80 NEAR
VEDAUWOO...MILE MARKER 330 WHERE VISIBILITY IS STILL REDUCED.
LOOKING AT WEBCAMS BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THIS SITE...VISIBILITIES
ARE PRETTY GOOD...SO PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT THIS IS ONLY AN
ISOLATED AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. AREA WEBCAMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
HAVE SHOWN FLUCTUATING VISIBILITIES...LIKELY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WHERE THIS IS NOT OCCURRING...SO DO NOT
SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADZY. 15Z EXPIRATION
LOOKS GOOD WITH THE 08Z HRRR SHOWING IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER THAT
TIME. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WITH
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND EXCELLENT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE.
ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORM
ACTIVITY. AT 10Z...THE KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWED A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM TORRINGTON TO
PINE BLUFFS AND INTO NORTHEAST CO. THIS IS MOST LIKELY THE RESULT OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED MAINTENANCE OF THE BAND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. IT WILL
BE QUITE RAW ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND CAPES
OVER 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH VORT ENERGY AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIP/EMBEDDED CONVECTION. WITH 700 HPA TEMPS AT
OR BELOW +4 DEG C...WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH WARMING TODAY. HEDGED BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE EXCELLENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
CONTINUED UPSLOPE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE SUPPORTIVE OF YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING SITES SUCH
AS KRWL OUT WEST. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT LIFTING NORTHEAST. OVERALL TREND
SHOULD BE FOR DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COOL/RAW DAY EXPECTED THOUGH WITH QUITE A
BIT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND COOL THERMAL PROFILES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH CUT OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. COULD AGAIN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT THE FORECAST
BECOMES MUCH LESS CERTAIN AS MODEL BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE MAIN
QUESTION BEING THE PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TYPICALLY THE
MODELS DO NOT HANDLE CUT OFF SYSTEMS VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO TRACK THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAKING FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ALONG WITH LOW CIGS WILL BE FOG AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TODAY
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIGHT WINDS FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL WYOMING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE
OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
505 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. AREA WEBCAMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
HAVE SHOWN FLUCTUATING VISIBILITIES...LIKELY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WHERE THIS IS NOT OCCURRING...SO DO NOT
SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADZY. 15Z EXPIRATION
LOOKS GOOD WITH THE 08Z HRRR SHOWING IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER THAT
TIME. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WITH
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND EXCELLENT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE.
ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORM
ACTIVITY. AT 10Z...THE KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWED A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM TORRINGTON TO
PINE BLUFFS AND INTO NORTHEAST CO. THIS IS MOST LIKELY THE RESULT OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED MAINTENANCE OF THE BAND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. IT WILL
BE QUITE RAW ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND CAPES
OVER 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH VORT ENERGY AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIP/EMBEDDED CONVECTION. WITH 700 HPA TEMPS AT
OR BELOW +4 DEG C...WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH WARMING TODAY. HEDGED BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE EXCELLENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
CONTINUED UPSLOPE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE SUPPORTIVE OF YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING SITES SUCH
AS KRWL OUT WEST. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT LIFTING NORTHEAST. OVERALL TREND
SHOULD BE FOR DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COOL/RAW DAY EXPECTED THOUGH WITH QUITE A
BIT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND COOL THERMAL PROFILES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH CUT OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. COULD AGAIN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT THE FORECAST
BECOMES MUCH LESS CERTAIN AS MODEL BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE MAIN
QUESTION BEING THE PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TYPICALLY THE
MODELS DO NOT HANDLE CUT OFF SYSTEMS VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO TRACK THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAKING FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ALONG WITH LOW CIGS WILL BE FOG AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TODAY
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIGHT WINDS FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL WYOMING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE
OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR WYZ116>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
322 PM PDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Storm moving into NorCal will bring cooler weather, windy
conditions, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms this
weekend. Showers will linger into Monday over the Sierra Nevada
south of Highway 50.
&&
.DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
The approaching storm will be centered over NorCal this evening.
Water Vapor and Visible satellite imagery are showing the
circulation`s center near the OR/CA border this afternoon. On
radar, we are already seeing instability from the storm as
thunderstorms develop east of the Sierra Crest in Lassen County
and also in Western Nevada. The HRRR model indicates that showers
and possible thunderstorms should develop west of the Sierra Crest
after 5 pm this evening...with a slight chance of some showers
working their way into portions of the valley overnight. Showers
expected to continue into Sunday afternoon but will push southward
as the low tracks towards SoCal. Total rain amounts will be very
light in the valley (trace amounts to a few hundredths) while rain
over the western Sierra slopes could range from a tenth of an inch
up to a half inch (locally higher near the crest and in vicinity
of thunderstorms). Snow levels will be above 9000 ft so light snow
amounts are possible near the Sierra Crest.
The primary concern with this storm are the increasing winds as
this storm tracks across our region. 3 pm wind observations at
Redding Airport had gusts close to 40 mph...Sacramento
International gusts near 25 mph...Vacaville gusts near 30 mph.
Strongest north to northeast winds this evening will be in the
Northern/Western Sacramento Valley and the Coastal Range between
Shasta County to Lake County with gusts up to 40 mph for valley
and up to 50 mph in higher terrain. Overnight, northeasterly winds
will also pick up along the western Sierra slopes north of
Interstate 80 with gusts 40-50 mph. Winds could easily knock down
large branches and trees that have been weakened by the drought
and wildfires. Downed trees may cause power outages or damage
vehicles/buildings. Wind advisory remains in effect overnight into
Sunday morning. Winds will gradually lessen throughout the day
Sunday and any shower activity should be limited to areas south of
Interstate 80.
Another concern overnight is whether thunderstorms develop near
burnscars along the Sierra Nevada. Heavy downpours from the
thunderstorms could cause debris flows (ie near the Butte Fire).
JBB
Showers may linger over the Sierra south of Highway 50 on Monday
due to wraparound moisture from the Low over southern NV/southeast
CA area. Ridging builds in with gradually increasing temperatures
and dry conditions as the Low weakens and moves eastward.
JClapp/JHM
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Upper level high pressure ridging expected to remain over the
western U.S through the extended period. Genreally light winds are
expected through this time. Daytime highs Wednesday are forecast
to come in near to a little above normal. Temperatures will warm
slightly each day reaching several degrees above normal by next
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Upper low dropping southward through northern California over
next 24 hours. Scattered Showers and isolated thunderstorms
mainly over the sierra tonight. VFR conditons expected next 24
horus with ceilings above 50k feet. Gusty winds over the
Sacrametno valley...coastal mountains and southern Cascades into
Sunday. North to northeast wind gusts over 40 mph possible.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Central Sacramento
Valley-Clear Lake/Southern Lake County-Mountains Southwestern
Shasta County to Northern Lake County-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Shasta
Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-Western Plumas County/Lassen
Park.
RED FLAG WARNING until 11 AM PDT Sunday for Central Sacramento
Valley in Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern Sutter, and Butte County
Below 1000 Ft-Eastern Mendocino NF-Eastern Portion of
Shasta/Trinity NF-Lake County Portion of Lake-Napa-Sonoma Unit-
Northern Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama County Line Below
1000 Ft-Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western Portions of
Tehama-Glenn Unit-Southern Sacramento Valley in Yolo-Sacramento
Far Western Placer, southern Sutter and Solano County Below 1000
Ft.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1132 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING AS
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. DRIER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW HAS ENDED PRECIP MOST LOCATIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH A FEW -SHRA WERE LINGERING ALONG THE NM
AND KS BORDERS AS OF 0930Z. SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MAINLY EL PASO/PUEBLO COUNTIES...THOUGH WITH LOW
LEVEL WINDS KEEPING MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT(VERSUS S-SE 24 HRS
AGO)...HAVE YET TO SEE MUCH IF ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOP. OTHER THAN A
FEW -SHRA NEAR THE KS BORDER EARLY...EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO BE
PRECIP FREE FROM SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY...AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
UPWARD MOTION WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN COLORADO. HAVE ALSO
PULLED MENTION OF FOG FROM MOST LOCATIONS AS LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS
SUGGEST ONLY VERY PATCHY AREAS OF LOWER VISIBILITY...LIMITED TO
MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF EL PASO COUNTY. BY LATE MORNING...EXPECT
LOWER CLOUDS TO BREAK WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA MAKES IT TOUGH TO RULE
OUT SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...THOUGH MOST MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP
CHANCES. WILL NUDGE POPS DOWN TO ISOLATED MOST AREAS...AND DELAY
TIMING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS LATEST HRRR HAS NO CONVECTION FORMING
THROUGH 19Z. MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA LOOK SEASONABLY COOL WITH
WARMEST READINGS IN THE LEE OF THE WETS/SANGRES...WHERE CLOUDS
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKEST THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...PRECIP SHOULD DIE FAIRLY QUICKLY MANY AREAS THROUGH THE
EVENING...THOUGH WON`T COMPLETELY END THINGS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
MOST MODELS KEEP SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES GOING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SUPPOSE SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUN
MORNING...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE WHERE CONVECTIVE PRECIP FALLS BEFORE
ADDING ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
...CHANCE OF RAIN INCREASING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
MODELS ARE NOW IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LOW THAT IS NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OR AND ON TO THE CA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE MTS...THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUNDAY...SERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN PLAINS AND COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...BUT
SHOULD NOT BE TOO WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LASTING. SWRLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH ALOFT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EWD FROM THE
SRN CA COAST. TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD BE PLEASANT...IN THE
70S...WHILE THE MTS COOL TO THE 50S AND 60S.
PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW MTS ON
MONDAY...AS THE UPPR LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SW. WILL SEE A GOOD
TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE BAJA REGION NWD INTO WRN NM AND
CO. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED MODT-HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CONTDVD MON
AFTERNOON AND EVE. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EWD ON TUESDAY. THE PLAINS SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY UNTIL LATE
TUE AFTERNOON OR EVE...AND THE INCREASED S-SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARM
CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S.
MODEL CONSENSUS THEN TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL NM. THE ECMWF IS
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH THIS TRACK...BUT DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT. WITH THE MORE SRLY
TRAJECTORY...THE COLD CORE WILL REMAIN S OF OUR AREA AND H7 TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMS
WILL BE CONFINED TOT HE HIGHER PEAKS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE HIGHER PASSES IN CHAFFEE AND LAKE
COUNTIES...IN PARTICULAR INDEPENDENCE PASS WHICH COULD SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW FALL BY WED. MAY SEE OUR FIRST WINTER HIGHLIGHTS IF
THE CURRENT PROGS HOLD UP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP E OF THE MTS
WILL COME WED NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT
WITH THE MORE SRLY TRACK AND WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM...IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE A WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE WEAK IMPULSES ON THE BACKSIDE
IN NRLY FLOW ALOFT THAT KEEP THE THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTS.
ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE KALS...KCOS
AND KPUB TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
219 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX AND
UNPROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
TODAY. MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR WEATHER IS A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH ANCHORED BY A CLOSED LOW FEATURE OVER AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE
REGION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH HAS PUSHED THE DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME OFF TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE IT FEEDS
NORTHWARD INTO A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. QUITE THE DRY AIRMASS ALOFT HAS ARRIVED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE WAKE OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME. ALL
THE HEAVY RAIN IS TO REMAIN WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH
OUR OWN MORE LOCALIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY...THAT WILL BE DISCUSSED
FURTHER DOWN IN THE DISCUSSION.
THE 03/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED WELL THE EXTENT OF THE DRY
AIR ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN
EXTENDS UP TO AROUND 850MB...FOLLOWED BY RAPID DRYING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPOPAUSE. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE QUITE HIGH
THROUGH THIS DEEP LAYER. THE PW VALUE SAMPLE BY THE SOUNDING WAS
JUST UNDER 1" THIS MORNING...WHICH FALLS ONLY AROUND THE 10TH
PERCENTILE OF VALUES FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
LOBES OF ENERGY ARE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST...WITH ONE JUST NOW EXITING THE REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO FORCE A FEW ISO-SCT SHOWERS OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHALLOW IN NATURE
DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT...AND HENCE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT IN NATURE
AND NOT TALL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. MAJORITY OF THE SCT LIGHT SHOWER HAVE MIGRATED SOUTH OF
THE TAMPA BAY AREA ACROSS THE SUNCOAST...ALTHOUGH NEW ACTIVITY IS
BEING DETECTED WELL OUT OF THE GULF...AND SO WILL LEAVE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST.
REGARDLESS...ANY SHOWERS WILL JUST BE OF THE PASSING
VARIETY...WITH MOST OF THE DAY WILL DRY AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THE DRY AIR ALOFT OVERTOP THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE LAYER HAS BEEN IDEAL FOR THE MAINTAINING OF LOW STRATUS.
THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING STUBBORN...AND HAVE HAD TO INCREASE THE
CLOUD COVER PERCENTAGES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NATURE COAST THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SCT SHOWERS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...HOWEVER...THESE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD
NOT BE ENOUGH TO RUIN MUCH IN THE WAY OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
ALTHOUGH BETTER CHANCES FOR A PASSING SHOWER WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...THIS WILL ALSO BE WHERE THE MOST SUN IS SEEN
THE REST OF THE DAY. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER
CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN TO BREAK INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MORE
IN THE WAY OF SUNNY BREAKS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AFTER 17-18Z.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE FOR OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND IS A LOBE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY ORIENTED OVER CENTRAL AL/MS. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND THEN EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
THIS IS A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TO BE CROSSING
THE GULF...AND THE GUIDANCE ENSEMBLES SHOW A VERY HEALTHY SWATH OF
DEEP LAYER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT/QG CONVERGENCE PIVOTING TOWARD
AND ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL STILL BE QUITE DRY...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL FCST
BY MANY OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BIT
MORE MOISTURE BELOW 20KFT THAN WE CURRENTLY SEE ALOFT TODAY. THE
STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...COMBINED WITH THIS ADDED COLUMN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS (PERIOD OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS) MOVING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA...AND THEN INLAND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD SEE GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS EXCLUDING LEVY COUNTY. THERE IS
ACTUALLY VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SHARP CUTOFF IN QPF NORTH OF
CITRUS COUNTY. WILL STILL GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR LEVY...BUT
THE AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR NWP GUIDANCE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LATEST NAM/SREF/CAM GUIDANCE
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OFF THE EASTERN
GULF AFTER 06-09Z SUNDAY MORNING WITHIN THE SWATH OF DEEP QG FORCING
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND QUICKLY MIGRATE TOWARD THE COAST.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCT SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ASHORE AND
SPREADING INLAND THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY. NOT THAT IT WILL
BE RAINING ALL DAY...BUT RATHER THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER AT JUST
ABOUT ANY TIME WILL BE THERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH...BUT HAVE INCREASE
POPS TO LIKELY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA BASED ON CONSENSUS
OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE MAIN
FORCING WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT EAST OF THE AREA...SO WILL SHOW A SLOW
DECLINE IN POP COVERAGE AFTER 21Z...BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE DEGREE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL LESSEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND OVERALL LIGHTNING THREAT
ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENINSULA...THE MID-LEVEL TEMPS BECOME QUITE COLD
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN THESE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...CAN NOT
RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT CAN OVERCOME THE DRIER AIR
FOR A TIME. THEREFORE...WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE GRIDS.
CAN ALSO NOT RULE OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL WITH ANY OF THE
STORMS...HOWEVER...LIKELY THAT FEW STORMS WILL GROW TO A
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DEPTH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE HAIL
GROWTH LAYER.
&&
.LONG TERM...
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH A 500 MB LOW PUSHING OVER FLORIDA AS
JOAQUIN EXITS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SIT OFF THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD OF THE UNITED STATES...TILTING OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HELP ENCOURAGE
CONVECTION...WITH THE SUPPORT ALOFT MAKING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
EVEN AS THE MID-LEVEL SUPPORT DEPARTS THE AREA MID TO LATE
WEEK...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. OVERALL...RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN MENTIONABLE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS
A LACK OF SUSTAINED DRY AIR IN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FEEL A BIT COOLER IN THE MORNINGS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S STARTING TO CREEP INTO THE NATURE COAST
AND KNOCKING AT THE DOOR OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA ON SOME MORNINGS
EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE THINGS WARM BACK UP SLIGHTLY TO END THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITION ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERS
WILL BE DEVELOPING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR ALL TERMINALS.
PASSING MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
&&
.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
NORTHEAST...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE WEEK. NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINS WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES. WINDS THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 69 81 71 84 / 40 40 30 20
FMY 72 84 72 85 / 30 30 30 40
GIF 67 84 68 84 / 10 40 30 20
SRQ 74 82 72 83 / 30 50 30 20
BKV 63 81 66 83 / 20 40 30 20
SPG 72 81 73 83 / 40 50 30 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...GARCIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
218 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
A SLUG OF RAIN IS MOVING UP OUT OF SE LOWER SO HAVE RAISED THE
POPS FOR THE FASTER TIMING, BASED ON THE HRRR AND RUC13.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS IN E UPPER AS THE GUSTS WERE
AROUND 25 MPH. ALSO, HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THE RAIN OUT OF THE
REGION UNTIL SOMETIME AROUND 00Z, AS THE SHORT TERM MODELS (HRRR
AND ARW-NMM) WOULD PURPORT. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE
, AND IN A PREVIEW FOR TONIGHT, NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
EITHER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC UP THROUGH ABOUT 850 MB WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT OR BELOW 50% IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS THE MOISTURE STREAMS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE US. THE
CLOUD COVER THAT WE HAVE HAD SINCE OVERNIGHT, HAS BEEN SLOWLY
INCREASING AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST HAS MADE BETTER
STRIDES ABOVE 500 MB. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES
TO BE STEADY THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
STRONG COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG RIDGING AND DRY AIR EXTENDING THRU
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STEADILY INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE NE EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH MID ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
INTO LWR MICHIGAN. ONCE AGAIN...A BKN DECK OF LOW VFR LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCU IS STREAMING INTO PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN OFF OF LAKE
HURON. THE REST OF OUR CWA REMAINS FREE OF LOW CLOUDS. STILL EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST
BEFORE SUNRISE...AND WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE FROST ADVISORY THRU
12Z. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AFTER SUNRISE WILL AGAIN MIX OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS INTO A SCT CU DECK. HOWEVER...INCREASING AND THICKENING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS
OUR CWA. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AGAIN TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO THE 50S. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE
AROUND THE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...AND WILL AGAIN STRENGTHEN TO
10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH AS DIURNAL MIXING
BRINGS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL FINALLY ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SE CWA TONIGHT AS THE
NE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SHIELD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LIFT INTO LWR
MICHIGAN. BOTH THE NAM AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN FOR THE SE HALF OF OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. HAVE
EXPANDED CHANCE POPS A BIT FURTHER NW...BASICALLY FOR AREAS SE OF A
LINE FROM ROGERS CITY TO GRAYLING TO NEAR CADILLAC. THIS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THERE HAS BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN AS WELL. THE NW HALF OF OUR
CWA SHOULD STAY DRY BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL NIGHT. THICKER
AND LOWER CLOUDS COMBINED WITH NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL LEND TO
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND NO FROST DEVELOPMENT. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP
MAINLY INTO THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOTHING.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ALL REAL FOCUS CENTERED ON
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS RAINFALL EVENT UNFOLDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. INFLUENCES OF DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW...MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE JOAQUIN/THE ATLANTIC...AND EVEN SOME TROPICAL PACIFIC
MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION ARE ALL COMING TOGETHER TO POTENTIALLY YIELD A
HISTORIC RAINFALL EVENT FOR PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS. SO...WHAT DOES
THIS ALL HAVE TO DO WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER? WELL...AT LEAST
A BIT OF THIS EASTERN MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE BACK
WEST...BRINGING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH IT AND EVEN THE
THREAT FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES TO WRAP UP THE WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING VERY LIGHT RAIN
POTENTIAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DETAILS: STILL A RATHER UNUSUAL LOOKING SET-UP HEADING INTO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS THAT EASTERN MOISTURE PLUME BACKS WEST IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DOING THE SAME AND BUILDING NORTHEAST
CONUS RIDGING. INITIAL TIGHTLY FOCUSED H8-H7 THETA-E AXIS WILL
GRADUAL LOSE DEFINITION AS IT PUSHES WEST INTO OUR AREA...WITH WHAT
IS INITIALLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALSO DIMINISHING IN THE
PROCESS. UPPER LEVEL JET CORE WEAKENS...AND SIMPLY NOT A WHOLE LOT
(IF ANY) MID LEVEL SUPPORT AS BEST WAVE REMAINS FAR DETACHED FROM
ADVANCING MOISTURE PLUME. STILL...GUIDANCE SHOWS RATHER SATURATED
SUB H6 TO NEAR SURFACE LAYER SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH AT NO
POINT DOES MOISTURE REACH THE -10C ISOTHERM. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DISH OUT SOME LIGHT QPF...AND GIVEN SATURATED DEPTH...GOTTA BELIEVE
VERY (VERY) LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. BY NO MEANS ARE WE
EXPECTING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD TO BE WET...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF MUCH OF THE AREA EXPERIENCED LITTLE PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE A MOSTLY CLOUDY SCENARIO SOUTH OF THE BIG
BRIDGE...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE/CLEAR SKIES AS ONE
HEADS NORTH ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. NEAR SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SAID CLOUD COVER KEEPING
OVERNIGHT READINGS A TOUCH ELEVATED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
CURRENT BLOCKY PATTERN EXPECTED
TO BREAK DOWN HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...YIELDING A MORE ZONAL AND
AGGRESSIVE NORTHERN CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA FLOW REGIME IN THE
PROCESS. STILL SUGGESTIONS THAT A WEAK (AND WEAKENING) COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. FORCING AND MOISTURE SIMPLY NOT THERE...AND REALLY LIKE
PREVIOUS FORECASTERS DECISION TO REMOVE ALL RAIN MENTION. GROWING
SUPPORT THAT A MORE ROBUST AND MOISTURE RICH SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
LAKES IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING IS
FAR FROM BEING DETERMINED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD EXPECTED
TO BE WELL WITHIN THE REALM OF NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE RAIN AND WHERE IT IS GOING.
MODELS HAVEN`T HANDLED THE LOWER VFR HEIGHTS, AND IT LOOKS LIKE
MVFR CATEGORY CIGS MAY BE ON US SOONER THAN THE 06Z THAT I HAVE IN
THE TAFS, BUT THEN AGAIN MAYBE NOT, AS DOWNSTATE BOS ARE STILL IN
VFR. SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF WE GET LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. HOWEVER, THE RAIN LOOKS
LIGHT, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR VSBYS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MEET SCA CRITERIA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING AS GUSTY NE WINDS WRAP AROUND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NORTH OF MICHIGAN. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THICKEN AND
LOWER THRU TONIGHT FOR ALL NEARSHORE AREAS...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR OUR LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AREAS AS DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC LOW PUSHES INTO LWR MICHIGAN.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...MLR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
154 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY AND THE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
SOME STEADIER RAIN IS NOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA REQUIRES ANOTHER INCREASE IN FORECAST POPS. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
WILL BE HELD INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BY THE CLOUDS AND STEADIER RAIN AND TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED
AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WE HAVE A RATHER UNUSUAL WEATHER SITUATION TODAY ACTUALLY.
THERE IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WELL SO OUR SOUTH...BUT IS BEING CHANNELED TOWARD US NONE THE
LESS DUE TO THE LARGE DEPARTING HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS CAN THAT
MOISTURE REALLY MAKE IT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS AND FOR THAT MATTER THE GFS
TOO SHOW MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THE 1000/850 LAYER AIMED ATOUR
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS FALL TO NEAR ZERO MB NEAR 700 MB (INSENTROPIC LIFT EVENT)
AT THE SAME TIME. WHERE THAT IS HAPPENING NOW IT IS RAINING. SO I
HAVE 40 TO 60 PCT POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS ALL
LIFTS NORTH AND DISSIPATES SUNDAY. CLEARING SHOULD FOLLOW MONDAY
AND IT WILL BE WARMER.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG TODAY BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH MINS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWESTWARD FROM OHIO WILL CAUSE
INCREASING IMPACTS TO THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
ALREADY MVFR CEILINGS ARE SHOWING UP AT KBTL AND KJXN AS OF 1730Z.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
TO IFR AND LOWER FOR ALL SITES. THESE LOW CONDITIONS WILL SHOW UP
FIRST AT KJXN...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST...REACHING KMKG LATE
TONIGHT.
ANY IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. THUS THE GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THEN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME TO OUR HEADLINES. THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LARGE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
CURRENT STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS SW LOWER MI ARE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
141 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY BUT THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR
MONDAY AND THE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. SOME
LIGHT RAIN IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. LOW LEVEL DRY
WEDGE IS STILL SEEN ON LAPS SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT
SFC OBS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI SHOW THAT THE
30 TO 35 DBZ ECHOES WILL BE OVERCOMING THAT.
MAX TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S STILL LOOK GOOD. THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAXES WILL
BE LOWER THERE...AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WE HAVE A RATHER UNUSUAL WEATHER SITUATION TODAY ACTUALLY.
THERE IS A SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WELL SO OUR SOUTH...BUT IS BEING CHANNELED TOWARD US NONE THE
LESS DUE TO THE LARGE DEPARTING HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA BOTH
AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS CAN THAT
MOISTURE REALLY MAKE IT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP MODELS AND FOR THAT MATTER THE GFS
TOO SHOW MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN THE 1000/850 LAYER AIMED ATOUR
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS FALL TO NEAR ZERO MB NEAR 700 MB (INSENTROPIC LIFT EVENT)
AT THE SAME TIME. WHERE THAT IS HAPPENING NOW IT IS RAINING. SO I
HAVE 40 TO 60 PCT POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS ALL
LIFTS NORTH AND DISSIPATES SUNDAY. CLEARING SHOULD FOLLOW MONDAY
AND IT WILL BE WARMER.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG TODAY BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
FAIR AND MILD WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S WITH MINS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWESTWARD FROM OHIO WILL CAUSE
INCREASING IMPACTS TO THE TAF SITES IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
ALREADY MVFR CEILINGS ARE SHOWING UP AT KBTL AND KJXN AS OF 1730Z.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING CONDITIONS DETERIORATING
TO IFR AND LOWER FOR ALL SITES. THESE LOW CONDITIONS WILL SHOW UP
FIRST AT KJXN...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST...REACHING KMKG LATE
TONIGHT.
ANY IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. THUS THE GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH THEN.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME TO OUR HEADLINES. THE WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LARGE HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1037 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
CURRENT STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS SW LOWER MI ARE NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. NO HYDRO IMPACT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...OSTUNO
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1228 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS UP AND TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
CHANGES MADE ACROSS CENTRAL NM. ZONES OUT SHORTLY. CHJ
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1159 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A HIGH IMPACT PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24HRS FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A 50-70KT UPPER
JET AXIS SLIDING NORTHEAST OVER NM IS INTERACTING WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL FORCE TSRA ACROSS THE
KABQ/KAEG AND KSAF AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
SLIDE EAST AND ENHANCE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND TSRA ALREADY IN PLACE
OVER THE PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST A LARGE AREA OF RA/TSRA THRU THE
ENTIRE NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS SOCKED IN AT IFR THRU AT LEAST 18Z.
A BREAK IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TODAY BEHIND THE CURRENT
AREA OF TSRA WILL FILL BACK IN WITH SHRA AFT 09Z AS EASTERLY
WINDS RETURN.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...321 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED AND MOIST WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM EAST TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY
TREND BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT
THEN TREND WESTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS PACIFIC
TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER TO THE STATE. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOUND
ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO PICK UP SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE ON THE GRIDS BUT THE OVERALL
STORY REMAINS THE SAME. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE COMBINATION OF LIFTING DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/JET AS WELL AS OROGRAPHICS AND INSTABILITY
WILL AID DEEP CONVECTION AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
WITH QPF THAN THE NAM THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE ALTHOUGH BUYING
MORE INTO THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP. DO
LIKE THE NAMS DEPICTION OF LINEAR SEMI PERMANENT CONVECTION BANDS AS
WE GET WELL INTO THE EVENT. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE
THE NORM THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUDGED TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN WARM ADVECTION PERIODS SUCH AS THE
NEAR TERM ALTHOUGH NUDGED THEM BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LONGER LIVED. EITHER WAY...TEMPS COOL FROM
EAST TO WEST AND LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFES PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE PEAK READINGS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
AND APPEAR TO BE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.
COMBINE THAT WITH A 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATION 500 MB LOW TO THE
WEST AND YOU GET SOME HEFTY MOISTURE ADVECTION AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
DYNAMICS. THE WEAKER DYNAMICS MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW IS A
BIT TOO FAR TO THE WEST BUT IF IT WERE TO NUDGE CLOSER THEN SUNDAY
SHOULD BE VERY ACTIVE AS WELL. RESIDUAL IMPACTS TODAY FROM THE
INITIAL PACIFIC LOW AND DEPARTING 80 KNOT JET. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING PRECIP ENHANCEMENT AS A RESULT BETWEEN ABQ TO
LAS VEGAS ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
THAT AND MOVES THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. MORE
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES...ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. PROBABLY NOT THE COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY HOWEVER. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE NE HIGHLANDS/EASTERN PLAINS. THE SAME
AREA THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY. THINK THE DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE A BETTER LOOK AT HOW THE DEEP CONVECTION EVOLVES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CAN ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
QUESTIONS OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THEY EXIT THE PACIFIC LOW. THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO IN QUESTION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GILA REGION WED AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS HAD IT SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE EAST AND A LITTLE MORE NORTH.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS WHEN THE DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH
THE ECMWF PLACING THE LOW SOUTH OF THE STATE WHILE THE GFS HAS IT
MORE EAST. SORT OF LIKE THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE GFS BASED
ON THE TIME OF YEAR ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARED TO HAVE CAPTURED
THE EAST COAST WX SCENARIO A LITTLE BETTER AS OF LATE. EITHER
WAY...CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
50
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
POOREST VENTILATION TODAY WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WHERE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...EXCELLENT MAX VENT RATES FORECAST BENEATH MODERATELY
STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MIXING PATTERN. MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD...BUT ITS
EASTWARD EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED AS AN INITIAL PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST WELL NORTH OF THE STATE...AND A
SECOND MUCH STRONGER WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. IN
RESPONSE...MID LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OR TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH TIME TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
OVERALL MOISTENING TREND FOR AREAS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIGGING WAVE OF ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN REGION TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA BY SUNDAY. LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
THIS DEEP LOW BOTTOMING OUT JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS NEVADA BY MONDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE MODEL WORLD
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW. GROWING CONFIDENCE THE LOW
WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING FLOW...AT LEAST
BRIEFLY...DURING THE MON-TUE PERIOD AND THIS WILL HAVE IMPORTANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE EARLY WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS AND NAM...FOR
EXAMPLE...SLOWLY LIFT THE LOW NORTHEAST BEGINNING LATER MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING THE LOW CENTER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER NM WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORCE THE LOW ON A MORE DECIDEDLY SOUTHEAST
TRACK...AND IS AMONG THE FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
EITHER WAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER AND ACTIVE/SHOWERY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT UNTIL THURSDAY DO THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A DRYING/WARMING TREND COMMENCING.
FAIR TO LOCALLY POOR VENTILATION WILL PREDOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. KJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1159 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A HIGH IMPACT PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24HRS FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A 50-70KT UPPER
JET AXIS SLIDING NORTHEAST OVER NM IS INTERACTING WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EASTWARD. A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW WILL FORCE TSRA ACROSS THE
KABQ/KAEG AND KSAF AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL
SLIDE EAST AND ENHANCE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND TSRA ALREADY IN PLACE
OVER THE PLAINS. MODELS SUGGEST A LARGE AREA OF RA/TSRA THRU THE
ENTIRE NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS SOCKED IN AT IFR THRU AT LEAST 18Z.
A BREAK IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE TODAY BEHIND THE CURRENT
AREA OF TSRA WILL FILL BACK IN WITH SHRA AFT 09Z AS EASTERLY
WINDS RETURN.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...321 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED AND MOIST WEATHER PATTERN WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM EAST TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY
TREND BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT
THEN TREND WESTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A VIGOROUS PACIFIC
TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER TO THE STATE. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOUND
ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL ALSO PICK UP SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MADE A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE ON THE GRIDS BUT THE OVERALL
STORY REMAINS THE SAME. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE COMBINATION OF LIFTING DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/JET AS WELL AS OROGRAPHICS AND INSTABILITY
WILL AID DEEP CONVECTION AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH
WITH QPF THAN THE NAM THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY THERE ALTHOUGH BUYING
MORE INTO THE GFS BECAUSE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP. DO
LIKE THE NAMS DEPICTION OF LINEAR SEMI PERMANENT CONVECTION BANDS AS
WE GET WELL INTO THE EVENT. EITHER WAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE
THE NORM THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUDGED TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN WARM ADVECTION PERIODS SUCH AS THE
NEAR TERM ALTHOUGH NUDGED THEM BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LONGER LIVED. EITHER WAY...TEMPS COOL FROM
EAST TO WEST AND LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL READINGS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GFES PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE PEAK READINGS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT
AND APPEAR TO BE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.
COMBINE THAT WITH A 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATION 500 MB LOW TO THE
WEST AND YOU GET SOME HEFTY MOISTURE ADVECTION AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
DYNAMICS. THE WEAKER DYNAMICS MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW IS A
BIT TOO FAR TO THE WEST BUT IF IT WERE TO NUDGE CLOSER THEN SUNDAY
SHOULD BE VERY ACTIVE AS WELL. RESIDUAL IMPACTS TODAY FROM THE
INITIAL PACIFIC LOW AND DEPARTING 80 KNOT JET. CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING PRECIP ENHANCEMENT AS A RESULT BETWEEN ABQ TO
LAS VEGAS ALTHOUGH THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
THAT AND MOVES THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. MORE
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. BASED ON CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES...ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. PROBABLY NOT THE COVERAGE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY HOWEVER. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE NE HIGHLANDS/EASTERN PLAINS. THE SAME
AREA THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY. THINK THE DAY SHIFT WILL
HAVE A BETTER LOOK AT HOW THE DEEP CONVECTION EVOLVES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND CAN ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
QUESTIONS OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND
ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW PROGRESSIVE THEY EXIT THE PACIFIC LOW. THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO IN QUESTION. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GILA REGION WED AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS HAD IT SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE EAST AND A LITTLE MORE NORTH.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS WHEN THE DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE APPARENT WITH
THE ECMWF PLACING THE LOW SOUTH OF THE STATE WHILE THE GFS HAS IT
MORE EAST. SORT OF LIKE THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE GFS BASED
ON THE TIME OF YEAR ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARED TO HAVE CAPTURED
THE EAST COAST WX SCENARIO A LITTLE BETTER AS OF LATE. EITHER
WAY...CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
50
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
POOREST VENTILATION TODAY WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WHERE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...EXCELLENT MAX VENT RATES FORECAST BENEATH MODERATELY
STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE MIXING PATTERN. MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EASTWARD...BUT ITS
EASTWARD EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED AS AN INITIAL PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST WELL NORTH OF THE STATE...AND A
SECOND MUCH STRONGER WAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. IN
RESPONSE...MID LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OR TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH TIME TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN
OVERALL MOISTENING TREND FOR AREAS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED DIGGING WAVE OF ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN REGION TODAY WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA BY SUNDAY. LATEST MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
THIS DEEP LOW BOTTOMING OUT JUST WEST OF LAS VEGAS NEVADA BY MONDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE MODEL WORLD
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW. GROWING CONFIDENCE THE LOW
WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN STEERING FLOW...AT LEAST
BRIEFLY...DURING THE MON-TUE PERIOD AND THIS WILL HAVE IMPORTANT
IMPLICATIONS ON THE EARLY WEEK FORECAST. THE GFS AND NAM...FOR
EXAMPLE...SLOWLY LIFT THE LOW NORTHEAST BEGINNING LATER MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING THE LOW CENTER BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER NM WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORCE THE LOW ON A MORE DECIDEDLY SOUTHEAST
TRACK...AND IS AMONG THE FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
EITHER WAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOLER AND ACTIVE/SHOWERY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT UNTIL THURSDAY DO THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A DRYING/WARMING TREND COMMENCING.
FAIR TO LOCALLY POOR VENTILATION WILL PREDOMINATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
PASSING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND AT OR BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY MONDAY AND REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. KJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1205 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected through the period. Low clouds will be
possible beginning mid morning tomorrow at the NW AR terminals,
with a short period of MVFR cigs not out of the question but not
likely enough to mention.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
No update planned at this time, but will watch evolution of
showers/storms in northwest Oklahoma closely. Recent runs of the
HRRR bring the ongoing showers and storms into northeast Oklahoma,
generally along and west of Highway 75 before dissipation. Given
the decreasing trend in the area radar mosaic and morning
soundings, current thinking is that they will not make it this far
east. 12Z Norman and Springfield soundings indicate fairly dry
low levels in the area, and given the northeasterly low level flow
across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, this should
continue. RAP isentropic fields show fairly substantial
condensational pressure deficits through the afternoon,
reinforcing this line of thinking. Have increased POPs in the
grids west of Highway 75 just a bit, but still below mentionable
levels, hence the lack of a need for an official update. Other
weather elements, including sky cover, which already indicated an
increasing trend, remain on track.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 12Z TAFS, patchy fog across a portion of Northwest
Arkansas this morning will continue to affect KFYV for another
hour or so. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
24 hour forecast period at all sites.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Pleasant autumn weather will continue for the next few days as
ridging at the surface and aloft prevails. Quite a bit of
cloudiness will spill over the upper ridge into the area,
especially tonight through Monday, but a dry low level airmass is
expected to preclude measurable rainfall. Would not be surprised
to see a few sprinkles though at some point over the next couple
days.
A warming trend will take place next week with temperatures
returning to above normal levels by midweek. The models differ
greatly on the handling of an upper level storm system that will
be moving out of the southwest U.S. during the middle to latter
part of next week. The GFS is much more progressive than the ECMWF
and UKMET resulting in a cooler and wetter solution late next
week. The European models close off the low well to our southwest
which would result in a much warmer and drier solution. For now
will stick to a compromise solution, which results in low pops
late next week along with temperatures well above the GFS solution
but well below the steamy ECMWF.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days
although if cloud cover becomes too extensive, diurnal ranges may
be less than forecast.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE TO BUMP UP THE POPS ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. ALSO DECREASED THE MAX TEMPS A
COUPLE DEGREES TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND EXPECTED OVERCAST/RAIN
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.
DISCUSSION...
WEATHER PATTERN, WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH SITUATED TO OUR EAST AND
A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PENSACOLA. RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW, SO MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WE START TO SEE SOME DRYING. TODAY MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW GFS GUIDANCE, AS SKIES REMAIN OVERCAST AND
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH. THE HRRR BRINGS AN AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO THIS WILL ALSO HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN MOVES FARTHER
NORTH, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST AND ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR HERE IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. THUS, LOOK FOR A LONG DRY PERIOD STARTING MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING RAPIDLY AND REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FROM
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POUR INTO MIDDLE TN FROM THE EAST.
THIS IS KEEPING CLOUD DECKS LOW AND OFF AND ON RAIN MOVING INTO
THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE
WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND LOWERED VIS WITH ANY RAIN THAT PASSES
OVER A TERMINAL.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED OF
10-12 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 18-20 KTS.
UNGER
OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
49
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
525 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY AND NOSING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS LIFTING NORTH OVER THE STATE BRINGING A SWATH OF BROKEN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS IS LIFTING
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PEEL OUT EARLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE.
BUT EVEN AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENS...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BREEZY. LOW STRATUS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY IS PROJECTED TO SURGE NORTHWEST INTO MUCH OF EAST-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE COMBO OF CLOUDS AND
WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS ON PAR WITH LAST NIGHTS READINGS. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER N-C WI...SO WILL ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY THERE. BUT A NORTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD KEEP FROST POTENTIAL
MORE MARGINAL OVER CENTRAL WI.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTHEAST BUT STILL REMAIN
FAIRLY DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
PUSH SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE
MORNING BUT THEN MIX OUT SOME IN THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...AND A FEW MODELS SPIT OUT
LIGHT QPF. PROGGED SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE ENOUGH SATURATION SO
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PCPN TRENDS WITH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WEDS NGT
INTO THURSDAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT EAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERATE
SOME CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS IN
EASTERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH EAST FLOW IS SHALLOW AND OVER-
WATER INSTABILITY IS WEAK (LK-H8 DELTA-T`S 7 TO 12 C)...SO
PROBABLY MORE OF A DRIZZLE THREAT THAN ANYTHING ELSE. NOT SURE
HOW FAR WEST THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GET...SO DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE PREV FCST...WHICH HAD LESS CLOUDS NORTHWEST...AS WELL AS
COOL TEMPS/FROST. AFTER A COOL START...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE INTO
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S BY TUES.
OF GREATER CONCERN IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION FROM WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE STRONG DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH A 35-45 KT LLJ...MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND UPPER LEVEL JET/SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY. IN ADDITION...PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES...WITH H8 DEW POINTS AROUND +10 C...SO MOISTURE
SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER OUR
WSTRN COUNTIES WEDS NGT...AND OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER...AS H8 LI`S
INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW HALF OF
THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 442 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
SCT-BKN035 LOWER END VFR CIGS TO LINGER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT MVFR
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUING SUNDAY MORNING.
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LOWER END VFR CIGS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BLUSTERY EAST WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING OVER INLAND AREAS BUT
WILL LINGER THIS EVENING ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>012.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......TDH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY AND NOSING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS LIFTING NORTH OVER THE STATE BRINGING A SWATH OF BROKEN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS IS LIFTING
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS AND TEMPS REMAIN
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PEEL OUT EARLY AHEAD OF THE WAVE.
BUT EVEN AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC WEAKENS...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BREEZY. LOW STRATUS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY IS PROJECTED TO SURGE NORTHWEST INTO MUCH OF EAST-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE COMBO OF CLOUDS AND
WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS ON PAR WITH LAST NIGHTS READINGS. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER N-C WI...SO WILL ISSUE A FROST
ADVISORY THERE. BUT A NORTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD KEEP FROST POTENTIAL
MORE MARGINAL OVER CENTRAL WI.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTHEAST BUT STILL REMAIN
FAIRLY DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
PUSH SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHWEST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI DURING THE
MORNING BUT THEN MIX OUT SOME IN THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY...AND A FEW MODELS SPIT OUT
LIGHT QPF. PROGGED SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE ENOUGH SATURATION SO
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PCPN TRENDS WITH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WEDS NGT
INTO THURSDAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT EAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GENERATE
SOME CLOUD COVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS IN
EASTERN WI SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH EAST FLOW IS SHALLOW AND OVER-
WATER INSTABILITY IS WEAK (LK-H8 DELTA-T`S 7 TO 12 C)...SO
PROBABLY MORE OF A DRIZZLE THREAT THAN ANYTHING ELSE. NOT SURE
HOW FAR WEST THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GET...SO DIDN`T STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE PREV FCST...WHICH HAD LESS CLOUDS NORTHWEST...AS WELL AS
COOL TEMPS/FROST. AFTER A COOL START...TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE INTO
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S BY TUES.
OF GREATER CONCERN IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION FROM WEDS NGT THROUGH THU EVG. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE STRONG DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WITH A 35-45 KT LLJ...MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND UPPER LEVEL JET/SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY. IN ADDITION...PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES...WITH H8 DEW POINTS AROUND +10 C...SO MOISTURE
SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER OUR
WSTRN COUNTIES WEDS NGT...AND OVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA ON
THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER...AS H8 LI`S
INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW HALF OF
THE FCST AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MID-
EVENING BUT WITH SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. THEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SURGE NORTHWEST FROM THE LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN WISCONSIN INCLUDING
THE FOX VALLEY. CIGS TO LOWER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
WIZ005-010>012.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
134 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. NOT REALLY SEEING ANY UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCES THAT COULD KICK OFF SHOWERS...SO CONFIDENCE IS
DECREASING THAT WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSAIC RADAR IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION UP IN RIVERTONS
AREA...JUST NORTH OF CARBON COUNTY THATS SHOWING A SLOW SOUTHEAST
PROGRESSION. HRRR SHOWING SOME CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND DRIFTING EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY WAIT
FOR THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE ON POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
BEFORE PUBLISHING THE FORECAST.
EXPECTING A REPEAT TONIGHT FOR FOG/STRATUS. MAYBE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD COMBINE TO GIVE MOST OF US A
COLD/DAMP NIGHT. ALL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE
SURFACE...EVEN OUT BY RAWLINS. CONTINUED THE WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN ENDING BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS
UP INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL THERE...BUT
MUCH WEAKER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO OVERNIGHT FOG MAY BE
LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE FROM CHEYENNE TO WHEATLAND. TRENDED THE FORECAST
THAT WAY FOR MONDAY MORNING.
WESTERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO +8C. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 70S AS THIS HAPPENS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER EASTERN UTAH...COMBINED WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ADEQUATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR
WYOMING COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY...LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES TO OUR SOUTH...SO NO MORE THAN ISOLATED
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...EVEN MORE DRYING OUT WITH NORTHWEST ALOFT ALOFT...THUS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD.
FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES NORTHWEST WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...THOUGH WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.
SATURDAY...SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR DEVELOPING TONIGHT IN FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING AFTER DAYLIGHT
SUNDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE STAY IN
A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS. WIDESPREAD FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AS
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ROTATING
AROUND A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT
IF WE KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...COVERAGE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WITH US
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS. SO NO
ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1126 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
WENT AHEAD AND LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME AT 9 AM
THIS MORNING. AREA WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS THE WYDOT WEBCAM ON I80 NEAR
VEDAUWOO...MILE MARKER 330 WHERE VISIBILITY IS STILL REDUCED.
LOOKING AT WEBCAMS BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THIS SITE...VISIBILITIES
ARE PRETTY GOOD...SO PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT THIS IS ONLY AN
ISOLATED AREA. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR
BETWEEN LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. AREA WEBCAMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
HAVE SHOWN FLUCTUATING VISIBILITIES...LIKELY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE QUARTER
OF A MILE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WHERE THIS IS NOT OCCURRING...SO DO NOT
SEE ANY REASON TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE DENSE FOG ADZY. 15Z EXPIRATION
LOOKS GOOD WITH THE 08Z HRRR SHOWING IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER THAT
TIME. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WITH
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND EXCELLENT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE.
ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORM
ACTIVITY. AT 10Z...THE KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWED A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM TORRINGTON TO
PINE BLUFFS AND INTO NORTHEAST CO. THIS IS MOST LIKELY THE RESULT OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED MAINTENANCE OF THE BAND
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SO WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST. IT WILL
BE QUITE RAW ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND CAPES
OVER 500 J/KG COMBINED WITH VORT ENERGY AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIP/EMBEDDED CONVECTION. WITH 700 HPA TEMPS AT
OR BELOW +4 DEG C...WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH WARMING TODAY. HEDGED BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE EXCELLENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
CONTINUED UPSLOPE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA ARE SUPPORTIVE OF YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING SITES SUCH
AS KRWL OUT WEST. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE MODELS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT LIFTING NORTHEAST. OVERALL TREND
SHOULD BE FOR DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COOL/RAW DAY EXPECTED THOUGH WITH QUITE A
BIT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND COOL THERMAL PROFILES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH CUT OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MORE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. COULD AGAIN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT THE FORECAST
BECOMES MUCH LESS CERTAIN AS MODEL BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE MAIN
QUESTION BEING THE PATH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. TYPICALLY THE
MODELS DO NOT HANDLE CUT OFF SYSTEMS VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY INTO
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO TRACK THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR DEVELOPING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING IN FOG...LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015
NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL OCCUR
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE
OF CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...CLH