Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/02/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1111 AM PDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS MOISTURE MOVES ONSHORE. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE TROUGH.
ANOTHER COLD TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THE COAST SUNDAY BRINGING A
SHOT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...KMUX RADAR ALONG WITH
REPORTS FROM THE PUBLIC INDICATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA AT
THIS HOUR. CURRENT BAND IS STRETCHING SW TO NE THROUGH MONTEREY
BAY REGION UP TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF MARIN AND NAPA COUNTIES. DID A
FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS PLUS
MOVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP A BIT FARTHER NORTH. WILL DO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES AS NEEDED DURING THE SHIFT. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS ENDED TOMORROW.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS WILL DEAL WITH SOME SHOWER
CHANCES THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN A TROUGH PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.
IN THE SHORT TERM...PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER
THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OUT
NEAR 35N/130W. THE ECMWF MODEL WAS THE FIRST TO SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD BREAK OUT TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. STILL NOT GETTING A LOT OF BUY-IN FROM THE NAM AND
GFS ALTHOUGH THE JUST RECEIVED 06Z GFS IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF.
HOWEVER THE RAP AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME
LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE DAY. IR CLOUD TOPS SHOWING -40 CELSIUS WITH
THE KMUX RADAR STARTING TO PICK UP SOME RETURNS OFFSHORE WEST OF
BIG SUR. FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOCUSED OVER SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND NORTHERN
MONTEREY/SAN BENITO. OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP QPF NUMBERS VERY
LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND COOL ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE SOME WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL
SHOWING 0.25 BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER AN AREA FROM SANTA CRUZ TO
MT HAMILTON AND SOUTHWARD TOWARDS MONTEREY AND HOLLISTER. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL MORE LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND EXPECTING HIGHEST TOTALS
AROUND 0.10 ON AVERAGE. FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR THE NORTH BAY THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A NOTED WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR FRIDAY...LASTING
RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID 80S.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS VERY DRY SO THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HILLS OF
SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTY DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE SYSTEM AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK SLIGHT AT BEST.
THE LOW MOVES INLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A RETURN OF DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...THE CURRENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING A STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. KMUX DOPPLER
RADAR IS INDICATING THAT LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA WITH A FEW ECHOS APPROACHING THE MONTEREY
COAST. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT DOING A GOOD
JOB WITH THE CURRENT SCENARIO...SO THIS WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST WITH SHOWERS STICKING AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS
EVENING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH BASES DROPPING TO SCT025 AND CIGS FALLING TO
OVC050 BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE TO 10 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH BASES DROPPING TO SCT050 AND CIGS FALLING TO
OVC050 BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE TO 10 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RWW
AVIATION: LARRY
MARINE: W PI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
928 AM PDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS MOISTURE MOVES ONSHORE. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE TROUGH.
ANOTHER COLD TROUGH WILL DIVE DOWN THE COAST SUNDAY BRINGING A
SHOT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...KMUX RADAR ALONG WITH
REPORTS FROM THE PUBLIC INDICATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA AT
THIS HOUR. CURRENT BAND IS STRETCHING SW TO NE THROUGH MONTEREY
BAY REGION UP TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF MARIN AND NAPA COUNTIES. DID A
FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS PLUS
MOVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP A BIT FARTHER NORTH. WILL DO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES AS NEEDED DURING THE SHIFT. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS ENDED TOMORROW.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS WILL DEAL WITH SOME SHOWER
CHANCES THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN A TROUGH PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.
IN THE SHORT TERM...PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER
THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OUT
NEAR 35N/130W. THE ECMWF MODEL WAS THE FIRST TO SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD BREAK OUT TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. STILL NOT GETTING A LOT OF BUY-IN FROM THE NAM AND
GFS ALTHOUGH THE JUST RECEIVED 06Z GFS IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF.
HOWEVER THE RAP AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME
LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE DAY. IR CLOUD TOPS SHOWING -40 CELSIUS WITH
THE KMUX RADAR STARTING TO PICK UP SOME RETURNS OFFSHORE WEST OF
BIG SUR. FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOCUSED OVER SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND NORTHERN
MONTEREY/SAN BENITO. OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP QPF NUMBERS VERY
LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND COOL ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE SOME WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL
SHOWING 0.25 BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER AN AREA FROM SANTA CRUZ TO
MT HAMILTON AND SOUTHWARD TOWARDS MONTEREY AND HOLLISTER. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL MORE LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND EXPECTING HIGHEST TOTALS
AROUND 0.10 ON AVERAGE. FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR THE NORTH BAY THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A NOTED WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR FRIDAY...LASTING
RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID 80S.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS VERY DRY SO THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HILLS OF
SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTY DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE SYSTEM AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK SLIGHT AT BEST.
THE LOW MOVES INLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A RETURN OF DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...FT ORD PROFILER SHOWS NO
SIGN OF AN INVERSION. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. RADAR IS
PICKING UPS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF THE MRY BAY AREA WHICH MAY AFFECT
THE MRY BAY AREA AFTER 12Z AND THE SFO BAY AREA AFTER 16Z.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE 16Z-03Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RWW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
451 AM PDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE MOVES
ONSHORE. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE TROUGH. ANOTHER COLD TROUGH WILL DIVE
DOWN THE COAST SUNDAY BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:28 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST FOCUS WILL
DEAL WITH SOME SHOWER CHANCES THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN A TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.
IN THE SHORT TERM...PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER
THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OUT
NEAR 35N/130W. THE ECMWF MODEL WAS THE FIRST TO SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD BREAK OUT TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. STILL NOT GETTING A LOT OF BUY-IN FROM THE NAM AND
GFS ALTHOUGH THE JUST RECEIVED 06Z GFS IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF.
HOWEVER THE RAP AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME
LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE DAY. IR CLOUD TOPS SHOWING -40 CELSIUS WITH
THE KMUX RADAR STARTING TO PICK UP SOME RETURNS OFFSHORE WEST OF
BIG SUR. FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOCUSED OVER SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND NORTHERN
MONTEREY/SAN BENITO. OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP QPF NUMBERS VERY
LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND COOL ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE SOME WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL
SHOWING 0.25 BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER AN AREA FROM SANTA CRUZ TO
MT HAMILTON AND SOUTHWARD TOWARDS MONTEREY AND HOLLISTER. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL MORE LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND EXPECTING HIGHEST TOTALS
AROUND 0.10 ON AVERAGE. FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR THE NORTH BAY THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A NOTED WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR FRIDAY...LASTING
RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID 80S.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS VERY DRY SO THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HILLS OF
SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTY DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE SYSTEM AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK SLIGHT AT BEST.
THE LOW MOVES INLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A RETURN OF DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...FT ORD PROFILER SHOWS NO
SIGN OF AN INVERSION. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. RADAR IS
PICKING UPS A FEW SHOWERS SW OF THE MRY BAY AREA WHICH MAY AFFECT
THE MRY BAY AREA AFTER 12Z AND THE SFO BAY AREA AFTER 16Z.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE 16Z-03Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 4:45 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
328 AM PDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SOUTH OF SAN
FRANCISCO TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE MOVES
ONSHORE. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE TROUGH. ANOTHER COLD TROUGH WILL DIVE
DOWN THE COAST SUNDAY BRINGING A SHOT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:28 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST FOCUS WILL
DEAL WITH SOME SHOWER CHANCES THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN A TROUGH
PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.
IN THE SHORT TERM...PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER
THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OUT
NEAR 35N/130W. THE ECMWF MODEL WAS THE FIRST TO SUGGEST SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD BREAK OUT TODAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
SAN FRANCISCO. STILL NOT GETTING A LOT OF BUY-IN FROM THE NAM AND
GFS ALTHOUGH THE JUST RECEIVED 06Z GFS IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF.
HOWEVER THE RAP AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME
LIGHT QPF THROUGH THE DAY. IR CLOUD TOPS SHOWING -40 CELSIUS WITH
THE KMUX RADAR STARTING TO PICK UP SOME RETURNS OFFSHORE WEST OF
BIG SUR. FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOCUSED OVER SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND NORTHERN
MONTEREY/SAN BENITO. OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP QPF NUMBERS VERY
LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY AND COOL ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL PRODUCE SOME WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL
SHOWING 0.25 BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER AN AREA FROM SANTA CRUZ TO
MT HAMILTON AND SOUTHWARD TOWARDS MONTEREY AND HOLLISTER. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL MORE LIKELY BE SPOTTY AND EXPECTING HIGHEST TOTALS
AROUND 0.10 ON AVERAGE. FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR THE NORTH BAY THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS INLAND. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A NOTED WARMING AND DRYING TREND FOR FRIDAY...LASTING
RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD READINGS FROM
THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID 80S.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS VERY DRY SO THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HILLS OF
SANTA CLARA AND SAN BENITO COUNTY DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE SYSTEM AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK SLIGHT AT BEST.
THE LOW MOVES INLAND BY SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A RETURN OF DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDS OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:45 PM PDT TUESDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT MARINE
INVERSIONS HAVE LIFTED AND WEAKENED THUS CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE
HIGHER END MVFR OR VFR OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MID LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE...STEADY 500 MB HEIGHT COOLING...AND MOSTLY WEAK MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS INCREASINGLY INTERACT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUD LAYERS THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR/MVFR DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 02:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
CALM SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESIDES
ALONG THE COAST. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE COAST BRINGING INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE WATERS
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY...THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: W PI
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
320 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MOUNTAINS AS EXPECTED...
AND A FEW OF THESE WILL BE DRIFTING ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL CAPES AROUND 200 J/KG. THERE IS AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX JUST TO OUR NORTH...SO A FEW SHOWERS COULD SPREAD A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING SO ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. HRRR COVERAGE SEEMS TOO HIGH...BUT RAP13 LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN THE RATHER DRY/STABLE AIRMASS.
WITH REGARD TO PLAINS STRATUS AND FOG...LOOK LIKE A VERY SIMILAR
SETUP TO LAST NIGHT WITH FOG POTENTIALLY WRAPPING BACK TO GREELEY
AND LOVELAND/FORT COLLINS AREA BY DAYBREAK.
ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH WARMING ALOFT...SHOULD BE SOME SUPPRESSION OF
CONVECTION BUT STILL ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING FOR A FEW LATE DAY
STORMS. PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED TODAY AND CLOSE
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE STRATUS IS MORE PERSISTENT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
WEST COAST MOVING INLAND. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
HELP TO BRING SURFACE WINDS MORE SE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL AID
IN THE FORMATION OF A DENVER CYCLONE AND SUBSEQUENT CONVERGENCE
AREA SSE OF DENVER. INCREASING MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD
FROM THE MID LEVEL SW FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO INCREASE INSTABILITY
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT SHEAR INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
STRONG STORMS FRIDAY TO INCLUDE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THE CONVECTION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWING NORTHWARD OVER
WYOMING BRINGING SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT BY THE AFTERNOON ENDING SHOWERS
BUT WITH LINGERING HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE BEHIND IT CLOUDS WILL
STICK AROUND KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 60S WITH 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS ENOUGH FOR AREAS ABOVE 10,000 FT
POSSIBLY SEEING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED HOWEVER.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT BRINGING
RIDGING OVER NE COLORADO AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO A WARMER MORE SW DIRECTION BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY AND KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRIER WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
FOR TUESDAY THE LATEST GFS AND EC MODEL RUNS ARE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT
OF CANADA. BOTH MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND BRING
IT EAST OVER UTAH AND INTO NW COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS SOLUTION BUT BOTH BRING
PRECIPITATION TO NE COLORADO AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW TO SEE HOW THE
NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS PLAY OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE DENVER METRO AREA AIRPORTS
THROUGH THURSDAY. FARTHER NORTH...KFNL AND KGXY WILL BE ON THE
EDGE OF FOG FORMATION TONIGHT BUT HAVE POTENTIAL FOR 1/4SM
VISIBILITY FOR A COUPLE HOURS CENTERED AROUND 12Z-13Z. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OFF THE FRONT RANGE 22Z-
03Z...BUT NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WILL OCCUR. RISK OF THUNDER AT
OR LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
938 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
AREAS OF FOG ON THE PLAINS HAS LIFTED. THERE IS STILL A
CONSIDERABLE STRATUS DECK ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS VERY THIN
AS EVIDENCED ON THE 12Z DENVER SOUNDING. AS A RESULT...MOST
CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO INITIATE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND THEN
ATTEMPT TO DRIFT OFF THE FRONT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHERE THERE IS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON
THE EASTERN PLAINS IT WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR ANY CONVECTION.
PREVIOUS FORECAST HANDLES THIS ALL QUITE WELL SO ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE...ACTUALLY MORE OF A SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON THE PLAINS AND VERY LIGHT NORTH WINDS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL
PROBABLY PROGRESS EASTWARD A BIT WITH TIME. THERE IS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH PATCHY FOG
JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST HINDERED BY THE HIGH
CLOUDS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH THE COOLER MOIST AIR OUT EAST...AND A LITTLE MIXING WITH
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AROUND DENVER. WITH MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CAPE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA...AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...EXPECT THAT SHOWERS
TODAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE JET. PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH MAY LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. HRRR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT MIDDAY SHIFTING EAST INTO
THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THE HRRR TENDS TO
OVERDO WEAK CONVECTION LIKE THIS. SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
INSTABILITY TO GET SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
THE HELP OF SOME LIFT...LESS SURE ABOUT HOW MUCH WOULD MAKE IT
ONTO THE PLAINS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXISTING LOW POPS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND PALMER DIVIDE LATE IN THE DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRIMMED A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE EASTERN
BORDER AREAS...OTHERWISE THEY LOOK GOOD. NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY AND A
LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT AS THERE WILL STILL BE LOTS OF CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO THE
POSITION/FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE BIG UPPER TROUGH DURING THE
FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BY SHIFTING
THE TALL UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO ON THURSDAY EAST OF THE STATE
BY FRIDAY MORNING. WARM SWLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TO START THE DAY WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY AFTERNOON. NOT SO FARTHER EAST
ON THE PLAINS WHERE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DELAY
WARMING UNTIL AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID
70S OUT THERE. THE FOG ACRS LINCOLN...ERN ELBERT AND SRN PORTIONS
OF WASHINGTON COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER THICK AS
THIS AREA WILL BE SUBJECTED TO MOIST SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALL
NIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE. THEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON GUSTY SELY WINDS MAY
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALONG A STALLED OUT SFC TROUGH
TO SPAWN A FEW WEAK T-STORMS ACROSS THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE.
BUT WITH MINIMAL CAPE ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE.
ON FRIDAY..MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW OVER
COLORADO STRENGTHENING. MEANWHILE PRESSURE/HEIGHT FALLS ACRS
WYOMING IN THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW AID IN STRENGTHENING THE SELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT UP INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVER THE MTNS FIRST...THEN OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOSE IN TO THE FRONT RANGE SWLY/
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DURING THE MORNING WILL ALLOW SOLAR HEATING TO
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S BY MIDDAY. THEN MODELS PARTICULARLY
THE NAM SHOW A DENVER CYCLONE FORMING NEAR DIA WITH STRENGTHENING
SELY WINDS ON THE PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT LONG AFTER ITS
FORMATION MODELS SHOW A SHARP DENVER VORTICITY CONVERGENCE ZONE
SETTING UP EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DENVER...WITH THE NAM INDICATING SFC
BASED CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. SELY SFC
FLOW TOPPED BY STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR ISOLATED STRONG UPDRAFT FORMATION
POSSIBLY LEADING TO A FEW SEVERE T-STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. HAIL AND STG WINDS MAIN THREATS...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO. LATEST DAY-3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS
THIS AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS MOST OF
THIS STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF DURING THE EVENING...ONLY TO
CHANGE OVER TO AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE LIFT
PRODUCED BY THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH OPENING UP AS IT SWINGS
NEWRD OVER WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY LATE IN THE
DAY. STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY AROUND TO
PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED LATE DAY T-STORMS. STRONG COOLING ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER
WILL GIVE US MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. GFS TEMPS
CONTINUE TO RUN COOLEST OF THE MODELS AS IT INDICATES HIGHS ONLY
THE 50S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. WHEREAS NAM AND ECMWF TEMPS CONTINUE
TO RUN WARMER...IN SOME AREAS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. DECIDED TO
USE A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND GO WITH LOWER 60S ON THE PLAINS
AND 50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. OH YES...ELEVATIONS ABOVE AROUND 10K
FT WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
AID IN RETURNING TEMPS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY MONDAY.
THERE/S STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY BOTH DAYS. BY TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DIFFER QUITE A BIT AS THE GFS SHOWS YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH
TAKING AIM ON COLORADO. WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS TROUGH WASHING
OUT AND RACING EAST ACRS COLORADO AS AN OPEN WAVE DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WILL NOT TRY TO FIGURE ALL THIS OUT AND STICK WITH CLIMO
FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 938 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. ONLY ISOLATED HIGH
BASED SHOWER POSSIBLE 22Z-03Z. LIGHT EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT
EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY WITH NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
444 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL SHIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A WEAK DENVER
CYCLONE...ACTUALLY MORE OF A SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON THE PLAINS AND VERY LIGHT NORTH WINDS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL
PROBABLY PROGRESS EASTWARD A BIT WITH TIME. THERE IS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH PATCHY FOG
JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST HINDERED BY THE HIGH
CLOUDS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WITH THE COOLER MOIST AIR OUT EAST...AND A LITTLE MIXING WITH
WARMER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AROUND DENVER. WITH MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CAPE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA...AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...EXPECT THAT SHOWERS
TODAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE JET. PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH MAY LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. HRRR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT MIDDAY SHIFTING EAST INTO
THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THE HRRR TENDS TO
OVERDO WEAK CONVECTION LIKE THIS. SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
INSTABILITY TO GET SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH
THE HELP OF SOME LIFT...LESS SURE ABOUT HOW MUCH WOULD MAKE IT
ONTO THE PLAINS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXISTING LOW POPS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND PALMER DIVIDE LATE IN THE DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRIMMED A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE EASTERN
BORDER AREAS...OTHERWISE THEY LOOK GOOD. NEAR GUIDANCE TODAY AND A
LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT AS THERE WILL STILL BE LOTS OF CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO THE
POSITION/FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE BIG UPPER TROUGH DURING THE
FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BY SHIFTING
THE TALL UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO ON THURSDAY EAST OF THE STATE
BY FRIDAY MORNING. WARM SWLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TO START THE DAY WILL HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY AFTERNOON. NOT SO FARTHER EAST
ON THE PLAINS WHERE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY DELAY
WARMING UNTIL AFTERNOON RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID
70S OUT THERE. THE FOG ACRS LINCOLN...ERN ELBERT AND SRN PORTIONS
OF WASHINGTON COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY COULD BE RATHER THICK AS
THIS AREA WILL BE SUBJECTED TO MOIST SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALL
NIGHT. MEANWHILE DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/T-SHOWERS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE. THEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON GUSTY SELY WINDS MAY
COMBINE WITH WEAK SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALONG A STALLED OUT SFC TROUGH
TO SPAWN A FEW WEAK T-STORMS ACROSS THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE.
BUT WITH MINIMAL CAPE ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE.
ON FRIDAY..MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST
CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW OVER
COLORADO STRENGTHENING. MEANWHILE PRESSURE/HEIGHT FALLS ACRS
WYOMING IN THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW AID IN STRENGTHENING THE SELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT UP INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVER THE MTNS FIRST...THEN OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOSE IN TO THE FRONT RANGE SWLY/
DOWNSLOPE FLOW DURING THE MORNING WILL ALLOW SOLAR HEATING TO
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S BY MIDDAY. THEN MODELS PARTICULARLY
THE NAM SHOW A DENVER CYCLONE FORMING NEAR DIA WITH STRENGTHENING
SELY WINDS ON THE PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NOT LONG AFTER ITS
FORMATION MODELS SHOW A SHARP DENVER VORTICITY CONVERGENCE ZONE
SETTING UP EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DENVER...WITH THE NAM INDICATING SFC
BASED CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. SELY SFC
FLOW TOPPED BY STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR ISOLATED STRONG UPDRAFT FORMATION
POSSIBLY LEADING TO A FEW SEVERE T-STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. HAIL AND STG WINDS MAIN THREATS...BUT CAN NOT
RULE OUT A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO. LATEST DAY-3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS
THIS AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS MOST OF
THIS STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF DURING THE EVENING...ONLY TO
CHANGE OVER TO AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE LIFT
PRODUCED BY THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH OPENING UP AS IT SWINGS
NEWRD OVER WYOMING AND THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY LATE IN THE
DAY. STILL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY AROUND TO
PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED LATE DAY T-STORMS. STRONG COOLING ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER
WILL GIVE US MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. GFS TEMPS
CONTINUE TO RUN COOLEST OF THE MODELS AS IT INDICATES HIGHS ONLY
THE 50S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. WHEREAS NAM AND ECMWF TEMPS CONTINUE
TO RUN WARMER...IN SOME AREAS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. DECIDED TO
USE A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND GO WITH LOWER 60S ON THE PLAINS
AND 50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. OH YES...ELEVATIONS ABOVE AROUND 10K
FT WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
AID IN RETURNING TEMPS TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY MONDAY.
THERE/S STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAINLY
IN THE HIGH COUNTRY BOTH DAYS. BY TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DIFFER QUITE A BIT AS THE GFS SHOWS YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH
TAKING AIM ON COLORADO. WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS TROUGH WASHING
OUT AND RACING EAST ACRS COLORADO AS AN OPEN WAVE DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WILL NOT TRY TO FIGURE ALL THIS OUT AND STICK WITH CLIMO
FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP FROM
DENVER NORTHWARD...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HAVING IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AT KDEN/KBJC BETWEEN
NOW AND 15Z. MORE LIKELY THE FOG WILL NOT BE A FACTOR. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1024 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH FROM OFFSHORE...WITH
INCREASING RISK FOR RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN
ADDITION...STRONG COASTAL NORTHEAST WINDS AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO SATURDAY. AS FOR HURRICANE
JOAQUIN...LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST A MORE EASTERLY/OFFSHORE TRACK
WITH LESS IMPACT POSSIBLE. HOWEVER THERE STILL IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT WARRANTS JOAQUIN TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXPAND FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS
THOUGHT. THEREFOR HAVE INCREASED POP BASED ON LATEST HRRR DATA
WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY DATA SHOWING ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN
CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. VERY MOIST AT 700 MB CURRENTLY WITH SOME
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVEL...HOWEVER WITH WARM AIR ALOFT OVERRUNNING
THE COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ANTICIPATE PRECIP TO CONTINUE.
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE. SEVERAL SITES HAVE ALREADY GUSTED TO 40
OR 45 MPH. IN FACT BUZZARD BAY BUOY JUST GUSTED TO 47 MPH.
=================================================================
FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL WAVES IS MOVING OFF OF THE
DELMARVA/NJ COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON. IT HAS LED TO A FEW LIGHT
SHRA ACROSS THE S COASTAL REGION. INCREASING LLJ...WHICH WILL PEAK
AROUND 45 KT BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SHOULD INCREASE THE
SHIELD TO A MORE WIDESPREAD STEADY...BUT LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY E
AND S OF A IJD-BOS LINE. QPF VALUES ARE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THEY
WERE ON WED THANKS TO LACKING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LOWER
OVERALL PWATS /MAINLY 1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL/.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASING POPS WITHIN THE REGION E OF THE LINE
MENTIONED ABOVE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINLY 1 INCH
OR LESS INLAND...WITH 1-2 INCHES FOR MAINLY ACK POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...COOL AND HUMID TREND CONTINUES THANKS TO AN INCREASE
IN NE FLOW. SUSPECT EVEN IN SPITE OF THE INVERSION IN PLACE ON
BUFKIT DATA MIXING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SE COAST WILL LEAD TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA PARTICULARLY FOR ACK...EVEN IN THE SUSTAINED
WINDS. THEREFORE...WILL BE HOISTING A LONG PERIOD ADVISORY FOR
ACK...WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MORE TO JOIN IT TOMORROW...BUT MORE
ON THAT LATER.
OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW-MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...
COOL..GRAY WITH BREEZY NE FLOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS
UPSTREAM HIGH PRES GRADUALLY RECEDES THANKS TO LIFTING
FRONT/ZONAL SHIFTING PATTERN. INCREASED RISK FOR RAINFALL A BIT
FURTHER INLAND DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BDL-ORH-BVY AND AREAS SE
ESPECIALLY...BUT AGAIN...MUCH LIGHTER THAN WE OBSERVED WED. ONLY
ACK COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES DURING DAYTIME 12 HR PERIOD. LESS
THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. WITH NE ONSHORE FLOW SUSPECT HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE OUT OF THE LOW-MID 50S.
SPEAKING OF THE NE FLOW...THE STRONG LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MIXING STILL LOOKS
SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE. AREAS OF SE MA...ESPECIALLY THE ISLANDS COULD
SEE A PERIOD OF WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BY AFTERNOON...SO WILL
BE HOISTING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS AND CAPE.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY.
FOR ANOTHER COASTAL FLOODING RISK...SEE THE SECTION BELOW.
TOMORROW NIGHT...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT N AND INTERACTING WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND A FAIRLY ROBUST HIGH PRES UPSTREAM...SO WILL LIKELY SEE
IT GRADUALLY WASHOUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL CARRY
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING POPS AND TRANSITION FROM STRATIFORM TO
SHOWERY ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...COOL...HUMID AND
CLOUDY WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD DZ AS DRIER AIR ENTRAINS ALOFT FROM THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRES AND A WEAK INVERTED RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
RISK FOR WIND ADVISORIES CONTINUE HOWEVER THANKS TO MAINTENANCE
OF THE LLJ.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HURRICANE JOAQUIN TRENDING EAST WITH LESS IMPACT POSSIBLE
* WEEKEND...RAIN AND WIND SATURDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY
* STRONG NE WINDS W/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING & BEACH EROSION DURING
THE HIGH TIDES THROUGH SAT
OVERVIEW...
THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THIS WILL DICTATE THE EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AND WIND LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECENT EASTWARD/SEAWARD
TRENDS SEEN IN THE UKMET...ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE NOW APPEARING
IN THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES. WHAT APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING IS
SEPARATION BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND JOAQUIN IS TOO LARGE FOR THE UPPER LOW TO CAPTURE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY IS THE UPPER LOW/PV
ANOMALY NEAR 27N/70W THAT RETROGRADES TO THE NORTH OF JOAQUIN THIS
WEEKEND AND HELPS KICK/STEER THE HURRICANE OUT TO SEA WHILE THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH JOAQUIN WEAKENS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TROPICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HOWEVER THE OVERALL TREND IS
EASTWARD/OFFSHORE WITH JOAQUIN. THIS IS A TREND WE CAN/T IGNORE AND
WILL BEGIN SLOWLY DIMINISHING POPS AND WIND FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS WE NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING LATER MODEL TRENDS.
DAILIES...
SATURDAY...MODELS TRENDING FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH MOISTURE PLUME
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NAM IS FARTHEST NORTHWEST AND HEAVIEST.
THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES BOTH SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF
CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA WITH LOWER POPS NORTHWESTWARD INTO INTERIOR
MA. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL PROVIDE VERY COOL AND RAW CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE
COD. IN FACT NE WINDS MAY GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH OR SO. THUS MAY NEED TO
EXPAND WIND ADVISORY INTO SAT. GIVEN TREES REMAIN FULLY LEAVED WIND
SPEEDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING DOWN TREE
LIMBS YIELDING A LOW RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES. THUS LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL RISK.
SUNDAY...COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY FROM TOP DOWN AS 1032 MB HIGH BUILDS
SOUTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER NE WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST. ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER AIRMASS REMAINS COOL
GIVEN 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE U50S TO L60S...AGAIN
WITH A BRISK NE WIND ALONG THE COAST.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...GIVEN RECENT EASTWARD/OFFSHORE TRENDS IN 12Z
GUIDANCE REGARDING HURRICANE JOAQUIN...WE HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
DRIER WITH LESS WIND. IF THIS VERIFIES TEMPS A MODERATING TEMP TREND
IS LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
7 PM UPDATE...
RAIN SHIELD APPEARING TO LIFT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT.
HOWEVER MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT OVER CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. MAINLY MVFR THIS EVENING WITH IFR AT ACK BUT VFR
INTERIOR CT/RI AND MA. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
=====================================================================
WINDS...WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECT
SUSTAINED NE WINDS 15-25 KT INLAND...20-30 KT CLOSER TO THE
COAST...AND 30+ KT AT TIMES CAPE/ISLANDS. GUSTS ABOUT 10 KT
HIGHER. PEAK SUSTAINED/GUSTS LATE DAY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR CIGS E OF A LINE FROM IJD-ORH-BVY...VFR TO THE W OF
THIS LINE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAINLY CAPE/ISLANDS
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL E OF THIS LINE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT QUITE AS HEAVY AS WED.
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TREND CONTINUES...MVFR E OF THE IJD- BED-BVY LINE WITH VFR W.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH SOME IFR MIXED IN BY EVENING
HOWEVER. COULD EXPAND TO INCLUDE CT VALLEY TERMINALS. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW...TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY SAT
MORNING.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE S COAST
WITH POSSIBLE VFR NORTH OF THE PIKE. PERIODS OF RAIN SAT TAPERING TO
DRIZZLE SAT NIGHT. NE GUSTS TO 25-35 KT...STRONGEST ACROSS SE NEW
ENG COAST.
SUN/MON/TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TRENDING UPWARD /IFR-MVFR-VFR/
THRU THE PERIOD WITH RECENT TRENDS SUGGESTING A MORE
EASTERLY/OFFSHORE TRACK WITH HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT EXCEPT NARRAGANSETT BAY AND BOSTON HARBOR. 30-40 KT NE
GUSTS TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO 40+ KT GUSTS AT TIMES BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO REACH 12-14 FT AT TIMES ON THE
E OCEAN WATERS.
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER HOISTING GALE WATCHES FOR BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY TOMORROW AS WINDS INCREASE OVERALL. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NE GALES WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT. SEAS 10-15 FT
OUTER WATERS. WORST CONDITIONS WATERS EAST AND SOUTH OF NANTUCKET.
PERIODS OF RAIN REDUCING VSBY.
SUN/MON/TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST A MORE
EASTERLY/OFFSHORE TRACK FOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN. THUS LOWER
PROBABILITY OF STRONG WINDS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. HOWEVER A PERIOD
OF VERY LARGE SWELLS LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET MON THRU
WED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE THE 1.0 TO 1.5 SURGE TO PERSIST ALONG THE MA
E COAST BUT TONIGHT`S ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS NOT AS HIGH AS THE
AFTERNOON TIDE AND ANTICIPATE JUST A FEW POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.
FRI...PERSISTENT NE FLOW MAY CAUSE THE SURGE TO RISE A TAD MORE AND
BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.7 FEET ALONG THE MA E COAST DURING
THE FRI AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THIS ON TOP OF THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE AND WAVES OF 8 TO 12 FEET JUST OFFSHORE MAY CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE REACHES OF THE MA EAST
COAST. A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES GRADUALLY LOWER
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT A PERSISTENT NE OR E FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
SURGE AROUND OR PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN 1.5 FEET ALONG THE E
COAST. IN ADDITION...A SHIFT IN SURFACE FLOW TO BE MORE FROM THE
E OR EVEN ESE IN ADDITION TO THE ARRIVAL OF SWELLS FROM JOAQUIN
MAY SERVE TO INCREASE THE SURGE ALONG SOME S COAST AREAS ENOUGH
FOR THE RISK OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THERE. HOW
MUCH OF AN IMPACT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
JOAQUIN.
DATE / BOSTON HIGHEST TIDE / TIME
FRIDAY OCTOBER 2 / 11.5 FEET / 3:30 PM
SATURDAY OCTOBER 3 / 11.0 FEET / 4:06 PM
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MAZ007-
015-016-019-022-024.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ024.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ022-
023.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DOODY
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY
MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1055 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
THE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTHWEST FROM THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE STATE...DRIVEN BY ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT IN ON
NORTHEAST FLOW. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND RAP13...AS WELL AS RADAR TRENDS. ALSO
UPDATED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. ALSO DID AN
UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO MAINLY REMOVE EVENING WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS EAST
KENTUCKY FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGHOUT EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...ADDING TO THE CHILL.
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A MORE
CONCENTRATED PATCH OF RAIN TAKING SHAPE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT THIS AREA TO EXPAND NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MOST PLACES SEEING MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...THOUGH THE
SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST SPOT FOR AMOUNTS NEAR OR ABOVE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL GO BASICALLY NOWHERE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW CURRENT READINGS IN
THE MID 50S...AND DEWPOINTS SIMILAR FOR THIS NEARLY SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT. ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG...PARTICULARLY ON THE RIDGES
OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THESE THOUGHTS IN MIND...
ALSO INCORPORATING THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AND CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS FOR THE T AND TD ONES. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY IN NORTHEAST/EAST
FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE. MOISTURE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
AT TIMES. THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH WAVES CROSS
THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE EAST WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF RAIN GOING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT A CONTINUATION
OF THE DAMP...COOL...AND CLOUDY PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
HOLD IN THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS NOT MUCH COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF COOL AND VERY WET...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GULF COAST PUMPS MOISTURE INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEXT TO NONE AND LIFT MINIMAL. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE SLOW MOVING...AS IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL TAKE QUITE A WHILE FOR
THE PRECIPITATION TO COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA. BASED ON CURRENT
THINKING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STEADILY LOWERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. EASTERN KENTUCKY
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE WEEK
SHOULD BE DRY AND PLEASANT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOK TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TO START...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AROUND 60
ON SATURDAY WHILE WE ARE SOCKED IN BY CLOUDS AND RAIN. A GRADUAL
WARM UP SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW PULLS
EASTWARD AND RAIN SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WE BEGIN TO
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IS A
REASONABLE EXPECTATION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE EVEN WARMER...AS THE RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED AND
SKIES GO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AROUND NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...WITH
VALUES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EACH NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE STRATUS LOCKED IN OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
DRIFT BACK DOWN THROUGH IFR LEVELS THIS EVENING AND LAST THROUGH
DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK AGAIN IN
CIG HEIGHTS FRIDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABLY NOT MAKING IT INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME MODERATE
PATCHES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
240 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
.NEAR TERM...(Rest of today)
Issued at 240 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
The RAP has done a good job with the infiltration of lower level
dry air from the NNE, and a better job with short term temps,
slightly warmer NW and cooler toward the TN border with KY. Will
continue with its trends through 00z, gradual decreasing clouds
from the north.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
Heights will continue to lower over the SE U.S. with a h5 closed low
forecast to develop close to the TN valley next 24 hours. The low
will then drop SSE. Decreasing clouds most areas, though they may
hold on across the Pennyrile. Will have a dry forecast through
Thursday. Thursday night through Friday night will bring a chance of
showers into the eastern part of the CWFA as the models rotate
moisture/clouds and modest lift back west into the area. The GFS/NAM
solutions are a tad more aggressive with scattered shower chances
vs. the latest ECMWF. We have raised our numerical PoP values
slightly, but not as aggressively as MOS across the east given lower
confidence. We generally favored MOS temps, but went at or slightly
below values for highs Friday across the west KY Pennyrile.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
At the start of the period, the models are in moderate agreement
with a closed low over the SE U.S. and Joaquin somewhere east of FL.
The divergence in solutions is swift from 12z Sunday on with respect
to Joaquin and the placement/transition of the SE closed low into
early next week. Thankfully, after looking over the past 3 days
worth of runs for the Sunday through Tuesday time frame, our weather
looks uneventful regardless of how the pattern evolves (including
Joaquin). The only way this changes is if somehow either Joaquin, or
the upper low ends up notably farther west than forecast. We will
carry just a slight chance of showers SW IN/west KY Pennyrile
Saturday, then dry Saturday night through Tuesday. Looking at the
past 3 MOS sets, Saturday still on track to be coolish. The overall
MOS trend for Sunday through Tuesday is warmer, especially
Monday/Tuesday. We adjusted up as a result given the prospect for
less cloud cover and a rise in heights.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
MVFR cigs continue generally south of a KMDH-KAJG line with breaks
continuing to push south across southern IL. Will depict a gradual
improvement through 00z as drier low level air continues to filter
south across the region, with north winds around 10 kts
persisting.
Models depict mid clouds may persist tonight. NAM-RAP models
advect low-level moisture in from the NE Thursday morning. We
introduced a SCT deck just below 3k/ft in case this comes to
fruition. Later shifts can adjust. North winds generally around 5
kts tonight will become NNE and gusty Thursday morning. Some gusts
may climb just over 20 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
CN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
924 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. JOAQUIN WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...HAVE UPPED POP IN THE NEAR TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF
SHOWERS ACROSS SWRN CT. THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL CLIP SERN NH IN
A FEW HOURS...SO BLENDED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS TO
INCREASE POP IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRATUS HAS FINALLY BROKEN OUT WITH CLOUD
DECKS LIFTING INTO THE 5-6 KFT LEVEL. STRATUS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
TONIGHT WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE REGION. WE
WILL SEE PATCHY FROST AND EVEN LESS FOG AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD COVER REMAINS AND NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN UP. TEMPERATURES
WILL COLD AND IN THE 30S AND 40S...BUT EVEN IF WE DROP BELOW 32F
IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS... THE GROWING SEASON THERE HAS ALREADY
ENDED SO NO WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A CRISP CLOUDY FALL DAY WITH READINGS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTH AS JOAQUIN NEARS BUT STILL
STAYS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. JOAQUIN`S TRACK
WILL BRING MOISTURE TO THE REGION... BUT OTHER THAN THAT NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
GUSTIER NE WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT WE MAY SEE THE VERY NORTHERN ENVELOPE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE REACH THE GULF OF MAINE AND ISLANDS...BUT THERE IS ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THIS. MOSTLY EXPECTING CLOUDS AND INCREASING NE
FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES EVEN MORE. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT`S LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE EAST
COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IN SOUTHERN ZONES.
LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF IN KEEPING
JOAQUIN OFFSHORE AND IF LATEST GFS VERIFIES THE STORM WILL PASS WELL
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD EXTEND THE QUIET STRETCH
OF WEATHER INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL ALSO SEE A MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
MONDAY AND WARMING FURTHER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH
THE 60S.
A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SEE
LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION HAS MANAGED TO
KEEP SOME STRATUS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY. RECENTLY VFR CEILINGS
ARE BEING REALIZED ONSHORE WITH STRATUS OFFSHORE. EXPECT ONLY
PATCHY FROST TONIGHT WITH EVEN LIGHTER FOG AS CLOUDS REMAIN A
CAVEAT AND WINDS STAY UP. EXPECT VFR WITH GUSTY NNE WINDS
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCAS FOR THE BAYS AND OUTER WATERS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS IN THE OUTER WATERS
WILL APPROACH 35 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON... SO THE SCA MAY NEED TO
BE CHANGED TO GALES.
LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
620 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN STALLS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT
PUSHES BACK ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE JOAQUIN
LIFTS WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY...LOCATING JUST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AND OFF THE DELMARVA MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SE VA/NE
NC IN A WARM/MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NRN NECK BACK INTO CENTRAL VA ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. RAP MESO-ANALYSIS STILL DEPICTS 30-35 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTY WINDS UNDER THE
STRONGEST STORMS...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. BASED ON
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW
AND DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS
THRU THIS EVENING SE VA/NE NC.
COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST/WRN ATLANTIC AND STALLS IN SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL RESULT IN ONGOING LIKELY POPS...RAMPING UP TO LOW END
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HI-RES AND RAP MODELS SEEM TO
HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT WELL...SO HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY. QPF
AMOUNTS THRU THE OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UNDER A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH NW HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SE VA/NE NC. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST. LOWERING DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S PIEDMONT TO MID-UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY. LATEST GEFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST (DEEP
TROUGH)...WITH STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE HUDSON
BAY (UPPER HIGH). THESE ANOMALIES WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND.
THE RESULT OF THIS AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS A CLOSED/CUT OFF UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR SE CONUS BY FRIDAY. THE PATTERN ALSO
SUPPORTS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUX/ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE SREF
INDICATING ANOMALIES OF + 4 STD DEV BY FRIDAY AND +6 BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE COLD/COASTAL FRONT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY NNW THU...BEFORE
STALLING ALONG THE COAST IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT. STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE REGION THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRI/FRI NIGHT THANKS TO THE UPPER LOW AND AN EXITING 100+ KT JET
STREAK. OVERRUNNING COMMENCES WITH RAIN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THU AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF
FOLLOWING CLOSE TO 12Z/30 WPC QPF...WHICH RESULTS IN STORM TOTAL
QPF AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES!!! THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
A FLOOD WATCH ATTM AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRI (3RD PERIOD). NASA SPORT GUIDANCE INDICATES RECENT
RAINFALL HAS SATURATED MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT (WEDS-WEDS NIGHT)...SOILS WILL
BE RATHER MOIST TO BEGIN THE EVENT. MMEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES
WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING/AREAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AND WILL
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO JOAQUIN ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE JOAQUIN (AS OF THE 2 PM NHC UPDATE)...
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO SURROUND THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
HURRICANE JOAQUIN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING
CLOSELY TO NHC FORECASTS...JOAQUIN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NWD
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AND BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE WELL OFF THE FL
COAST. JOAQUIN THEN ACCELERATES NWD...WEAKENING...WITH UNCERTAINTY
BECOMING PROBLEMATIC THEREAFTER. GFS CONTINUES A SRN TREND...WITH
THE 30/12Z GFS BRINGING THE CIRCULATION INLAND IN THE CAROLINAS.
HOWEVER...THE GEFS ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD. THE
30/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CIRCULATION WELL OFFSHORE.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT EACH SCENARIO COULD BE POSSIBLE.
FOLLOWING A MODEL MEAN...NHC TRACKS JOAQUIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. EXPECT
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS BOTH THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AND JOAQUIN ARE BETTER SAMPLED.
GALE CONDITIONS...HIGH SEAS/WAVES AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING ARE ALSO EXPECTED. PLEASE REFER TO MARINE AND TIDES
SECTIONS BELOW.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH AN IN-SITU CAD
WEDGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 70S FAR SE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WARMER OVER THE PIEDMONT SAT AND SUN...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S NW TO MID 70S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLICATED...PTNTLLY VERY STORMY AND HIGHLY IMPACTFUL PD INTO
THE WKND. THERE RMN UNKNOWNS ATTM. HOW DOES HURRICANE JOAQUIN
INTERACT W/ DEEP NEGATIVE/HIGHLY ANOMALOUS UPR LVL LO PRES AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE CSTL SE STATES FRI NGT INTO SAT? DOES THE
HURRICANE BECOME ENTRAINED/ABSORBED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OR RMN
SEPARATE? 00Z/30 GFS/CMC AND SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS DEPICT A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OF THE HURRICANE...WHILE THE 00Z/30 ECMWF AND
SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS SHOW A NE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE WELL
OFFSHORE...WHICH DOES NOT CAST ANYMORE CLARITY ON THE POTENTIAL
EVENT.
REGARDLESS OF HOW THE SYSTEMS INTERACT...RA (MDT/HVY) A GOOD BET INTO
SUN. (THOUGH PINPOINTING LOCATION OF EXCESSIVE AMTS UNCERTAIN
ATTM). ALSO...CONCERNS WILL BE FOR DEGREE OF CSTL FLOODING...AND
HOW STRONG WNDS WILL BECOME (ESP ON THE WTRS). THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
ONLY SLOLY TRACKS THE CLOSED UPR LVL LO PRES ENE THROUGH THE RGN
SUN/MON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN CONTD RA...WND AND CSTL FLOODING
EFFECTS. FOR NOW...BLENDED THE FCST W/ HPC AND CONT WILL DRYING
TREND FM SUN AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WK (BUT THAT IS NOT A
GUARANTEE ATTM).
HI TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S EACH DAY. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO L60S
AT NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH S/SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRNT SHIFTING TO N BEHIND THE FRNT TNGT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE. THE FRNT STALLS OFFSHORE INTO THU LEADING TO OVERRUNNING
PCPN ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD IFR CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THAT
TIME FRAME...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO FRI.
OUTLOOK...HEAVY RAIN AND RESTRICTED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA AND
HURRICANE JOAQUIN PSBLY AFFECTING THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE WATERS AS OF 600 PM THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS...AND LIGHTNING SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY CAA FROM THE NORTH. N-NE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND SURGE DOWN THE BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER ALL
WATERS EARLY THU MORNING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS BUILD TO 5-6FT AND WAVES ON CHES BAY BUILD TO
4-5FT BY MORNING. SCA FLAGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS BY
THU MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BY THU AFTN AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER SERN CANADA AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS ROUGHLY NORTH
OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT BY THU AFTN AND THEN NORTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER BY THU EVENING...INCLUDING CHES BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 8-12 FT
AND 6-8FT SOUTH OVERNIGHT THU. KEPT GALE WARNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND EXTENDED THE HEADLINE THROUGH FRI
AFTN/4TH PERIOD. GALE WATCH FOR CHES BAY WAS DELAYED UNTIL THU
EVENING WITH GALES NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THU
NIGHT.
A COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A
LARGE AMT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN
GETS PULLED INTO THIS SYSTEM OR NOT. EITHER WAY...STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS AVERAGING 25-35KT WITH GUSTS OF 40-45KT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-15FT BY SUN
MORNING (POSSIBLY HIGHER). CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DRASTICALLY
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL HEADLINES MAY BE FORTHCOMING ON
THU...SO PLEASE KEEP CHECKING THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UP TO DATE
INFORMATION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN NECK AS
LEWISETTA IS FORECAST TO REACH 3.4 TO 3.5 FT. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR EAST SIDE OF CHES BAY TO INCLUDE
DORCHESTER/SOMERSET/WICOMICO FOR UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS
AFTN. ELSEWHERE...WATER LEVELS GENLY REMAIN SEVERAL TENTHS OF A
FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOOD THROUGH WED.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
THIS OCCURS FIRST ACRS NORTHERN AREAS...POSSIBLY DELAYED UNTIL
LATE THU/THU NIGHT ACRS THE FAR SOUTH. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO
EXACT WIND DIRECTION (I.E NNE TO ENE)...WHICH WOULD HAVE
SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCES FOR THE DEGREE OF TIDAL FLOODING IN
SPECIFIC AREAS. FOR NOW HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH MINOR
FLOODING BECOMING LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS (ESPECIALLY FROM
WACHAPREAGUE ON NORTH BY THU AFTN). MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER BAY AND ALL COASTAL AREAS BY THU EVENING
INTO FRI AND BEYOND.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ075-077.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ633-635>637.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ638.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-
652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...ALB/DAP
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
400 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN STALLS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT
PUSHES BACK ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE JOAQUIN
LIFTS WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY...LOCATING JUST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AND OFF THE DELMARVA MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SE VA/NE
NC IN A WARM/MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NRN NECK BACK INTO CENTRAL VA ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. RAP MESO-ANALYSIS STILL DEPICTS 30-35 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTY WINDS UNDER THE
STRONGEST STORMS...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. BASED ON
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW
AND DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS
THRU THIS EVENING SE VA/NE NC.
COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST/WRN ATLANTIC AND STALLS IN SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL RESULT IN ONGOING LIKELY POPS...RAMPING UP TO LOW END
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HI-RES AND RAP MODELS SEEM TO
HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT WELL...SO HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY. QPF
AMOUNTS THRU THE OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UNDER A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH NW HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SE VA/NE NC. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST. LOWERING DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S PIEDMONT TO MID-UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY. LATEST GEFS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST (DEEP
TROUGH)...WITH STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE HUDSON
BAY (UPPER HIGH). THESE ANOMALIES WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND.
THE RESULT OF THIS AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS A CLOSED/CUT OFF UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR SE CONUS BY FRIDAY. THE PATTERN ALSO
SUPPORTS ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUX/ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE SREF
INDICATING ANOMALIES OF + 4 STD DEV BY FRIDAY AND +6 BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE COLD/COASTAL FRONT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY NNW THURS...BEFORE
STALLING ALONG THE COAST IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE REGION THURS AFTERNOON INTO FRI/FRI
NIGHT THANKS TO THE UPPER LOW AND AN EXITING 100+ KT JET STREAK.
OVERRUNNING COMMENCES WITH RAIN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THURS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF FOLLOWING
CLOSE TO 12Z/30 WPC QPF...WHICH RESULTS IN STORM TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
OF 5 TO 7 INCHES!!! THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH ATTM
AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI (3RD PERIOD).
NASA SPORT GUIDANCE INDICATES RECENT RAINFALL HAS SATURATED MUCH OF
THE REGION...AND WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
(WEDS-WEDS NIGHT)...SOILS WILL BE RATHER MOIST TO BEGIN THE EVENT.
MMEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING/AREAL FLOODING IS
LIKELY AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
JOAQUIN ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE JOAQUIN (AS OF THE 2 PM NHC UPDATE)...
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO SURROUND THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
HURRICANE JOAQUIN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING
CLOSELY TO NHC FORECASTS...JOAQUIN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NWD
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AND BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE WELL OFF THE FL
COAST. JOAQUIN THEN ACCELERATES NWD...WEAKENING...WITH UNCERTAINTY
BECOMING PROBLEMATIC THEREAFTER. GFS CONTINUES A SRN TREND...WITH
THE 30/12Z GFS BRINGING THE CIRCULATION INLAND IN THE CAROLINAS.
HOWEVER...THE GEFS ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD. THE
30/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CIRCULATION WELL OFFSHORE.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT EACH SCENARIO COULD BE POSSIBLE.
FOLLOWING A MODEL MEAN...NHC TRACKS JOAQUIN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WOULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. EXPECT
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS BOTH THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AND JOAQUIN ARE BETTER SAMPLED.
GALE CONDITIONS...HIGH SEAS/WAVES AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING ARE ALSO EXPECTED. PLEASE REFER TO MARINE AND TIDES
SECTIONS BELOW.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH AN IN-SITU CAD
WEDGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 70S FAR SE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WARMER OVER THE PIEDMONT SAT AND SUN...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S NW TO MID 70S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLICATED...PTNTLLY VERY STORMY AND HIGHLY IMPACTFUL PD INTO
THE WKND. THERE RMN UNKNOWNS ATTM. HOW DOES HURRICANE JOAQUIN
INTERACT W/ DEEP NEGATIVE/HIGHLY ANOMALOUS UPR LVL LO PRES AS IT
TRACKS THROUGH THE CSTL SE STATES FRI NGT INTO SAT? DOES THE
HURRICANE BECOME ENTRAINED/ABSORBED IN THE OVRALL PATTERN OR RMN
SEPARATE? 00Z/30 GFS/CMC AND SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS DEPICT A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK OF THE HURRICANE...WHILE THE 00Z/30 ECMWF AND
SEVERAL GEFS MEMBERS SHOW A NE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE WELL
OFFHOSRE...WHICH DOES NOT CAST ANYMORE CLARITY ON THE POTENTIAL
EVENT.
REGARDLESS OF HOW THE SYSTEMS INTERACT...RA (MDT/HVY) A GOOD BET INTO
SUN. (THOUGH PINPOINTING LOCATION OF EXCESSIVE AMTS UNCERTAIN
ATTM). ALSO...CONCERNS WILL BE FOR DEGREE OF CSTL FLOODING...AND
HOW STRONG WNDS WILL BECOME (ESP ON THE WTRS). THE 12Z/29 ECMWF
ONLY SLOLY TRACKS THE CLOSED UPR LVL LO PRES ENE THROUGH THE RGN
SUN/MON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN CONTD RA...WND AND CSTL FLOODING
EFFECTS. FOR NOW...BLENDED THE FCST W/ HPC AND CONT WILL DRYING
TREND FM SUN AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WK (BUT THAT IS NOT A
GUARANTEE ATTM).
HI TEMPS IN THE 60S TO L70S EACH DAY. LO TEMPS IN THE 50S TO L60S
AT NGT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRNT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH S/SW WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRNT SHIFTING TO N BEHIND THE FRNT TNGT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE. THE FRNT STALLS OFFSHORE INTO THU LEADING TO
OVERRUNNING PCPN ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD IFR CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THAT TIME FRAME...PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO FRI.
OUTLOOK...HEAVY RAIN AND RESTRICTED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROF LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA AND
HURRICANE JOAQUIN PSBLY AFFECTING THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W TDA...CROSSING THE WTRS THIS
AFTN/EVENG. SCA OVER THE CSTL WTRS CONTINUES TDA WITH 5-6 FT SEAS
EXPECTED. AS THE FRNT SLIDES OFFSHORE TNGT AND STRONG HI PRES STARTS
BUILDING OVER SE CANADA...A PERIOD OF INCREASING N/NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. SEVERAL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...INCLUDING A GALE WARNG OVER THE NRN
CSTL WTRS WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST FM LATE
THU THRU FRI. DECIDED TO RAMP UP SCA`S TO GALE WATCHES OVER THE
REMAINING CSTL WTR ZONES AND THE BAY WHERE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI ENUF
YET FOR A 3RD-4TH PERIOD WARNG. OTWS...A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED OVER
THE RIVERS AND SOUND. UNSETTLED MARINE CONDS WILL EXTEND PAST THE
4TH PERIOD SO MARINE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TS JOAQUIN PSBLY AFFECTING THE REGION AS WELL. AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF HI SEAS IS EXPECTED AS WELL...OF 10-15 FT OUT
20NM FM THU NGT THRU THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY HIGHER THE CLOSER
JOAQUIN MAKES IT TO LAND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN NECK AS
LEWISETTA IS FORECAST TO REACH 3.4 TO 3.5 FT. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR EAST SIDE OF CHES BAY TO INCLUDE
DORCHESTER/SOMERSET/WICOMICO FOR UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS
AFTN. ELSEWHERE...WATER LEVELS GENLY REMAIN SEVERAL TENTHS OF A
FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOOD THROUGH WED.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
THIS OCCURS FIRST ACRS NORTHERN AREAS...POSSIBLY DELAYED UNTIL
LATE THU/THU NIGHT ACRS THE FAR SOUTH. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO
EXACT WIND DIRECTION (I.E NNE TO ENE)...WHICH WOULD HAVE
SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCES FOR THE DEGREE OF TIDAL FLOODING IN
SPECIFIC AREAS. FOR NOW HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WITH MINOR
FLOODING BECOMING LIKELY FOR COASTAL AREAS (ESPECIALLY FROM
WACHAPREAGUE ON NORTH BY THU AFTN). MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER BAY AND ALL COASTAL AREAS BY THU EVENING
INTO FRI AND BEYOND.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ075-077.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-
652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...ALB/DAP
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1240 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SPRINKLES SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA BY OR AROUND
15Z ACCORDING TO THE RAP MODEL. SOUTH WINDS KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS WRN NEB TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MIXING PROCESSES PRODUCING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT ACCORDING TO THE
SREF MODEL.
HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE IN PLACE TODAY WITH COOL AIR RECYCLING
NORTHWARD. LOWS IN THE 50S FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONSIST OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA...AND A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. EXPECT A SYSTEM TO EJECT EAST FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE ENTIRE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO
TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER PATTERN FINALLY BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE.
AS MENTIONED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EAST INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SUNDAY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CANADA. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD EAST
FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST MOST CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
FALL FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE CIRCULATING INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA OFF THE HIGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL DELAY THE
RAIN UNTIL POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS AROUND
ONEILL...BARTLETT AND EWING.
THIS DRY AIR MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST IN REGARDS TO STRATUS
CLOUD COVER. IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH OF THE DRY AIR WILL MIX INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND HELP TO THIN AND BREAK UP THE STRATUS CLOUD
DECK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STRATUS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHERE THE DRY AIR LAYER WILL BE DEEPER. WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY...MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH THAT A LOW CLOUD STRATUS DECK SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
PANHANDLE. STILL EXPECTING THE DRIER AIR TO KEEP STRATUS TO A
MINIMUM FARTHER EAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ALL AREAS
WILL SEE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN WITH A SOLID OVERCAST.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RESIDE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. THEN ON SATURDAY EXPECT A RAW DAY ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING INTO THE 50S DUE TO CLOUDS AND
COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EAST BUT DAMPENS AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW AT LEAST A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
LOW CIG STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD STRONG OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS OF EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INCLUDING
KLBF...KVTN...KIML...AND KOGA. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BECOME MORE
SIGNIFICANT WITH WESTWARD PROGRESSION AS KIML AND KOGA HAVE
REPORTED SUB-1KFT CIGS WITH VISBYS NEAR 3SM FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. FURTHER EAST CIGS HAVE IMPROVED
TO MVFR/VFR AT KVTN AND KLBF. CLOUD COVER ERODES INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.
THE CONTINUATION/REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT WITH IFR CIGS AT BOTH KLBF AND KVTN...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WANES WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AND IT REMAINS UNCLEAR JUST
HOW FAR EAST THE STRATUS DECK WILL ADVANCE. NOT A FAVORABLE SETUP
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG BUT MINOR VISBY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WHERE CIGS WILL BE AT OR BELOW 1K FEET.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1214 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA. DOWNSTREAM...A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM HUDSON`S BAY TO EASTERN TEXAS PUTTING OUR REGION IN MODEST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
HAS PROVEN TO BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPAWN A FEW RADAR RETURNS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH...IF ANYTHING...TO REACH THE GROUND AS OBS
INDICATE ALL MID CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GREAT
PLAINS.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI EARLY TODAY. MID CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATER THIS MORNING BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A LARGE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
PCPN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN TO LOWER POPS IN OUR AREA AS BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.
DRY AIR TO OUR EAST WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
THE BASE OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL ROUND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED. THIS COULD BRING PCPN TO THE AREA BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HOWEVER MANY FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES
REMAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
629 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SPRINKLES SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA BY OR AROUND
15Z ACCORDING TO THE RAP MODEL. SOUTH WINDS KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS WRN NEB TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MIXING PROCESSES PRODUCING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT ACCORDING TO THE
SREF MODEL.
HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE IN PLACE TODAY WITH COOL AIR RECYCLING
NORTHWARD. LOWS IN THE 50S FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONSIST OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA...AND A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. EXPECT A SYSTEM TO EJECT EAST FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE ENTIRE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO
TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER PATTERN FINALLY BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE.
AS MENTIONED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EAST INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SUNDAY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CANADA. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD EAST
FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST MOST CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
FALL FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE CIRCULATING INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA OFF THE HIGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL DELAY THE
RAIN UNTIL POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS AROUND
ONEILL...BARTLETT AND EWING.
THIS DRY AIR MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST IN REGARDS TO STRATUS
CLOUD COVER. IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH OF THE DRY AIR WILL MIX INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND HELP TO THIN AND BREAK UP THE STRATUS CLOUD
DECK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STRATUS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHERE THE DRY AIR LAYER WILL BE DEEPER. WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY...MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH THAT A LOW CLOUD STRATUS DECK SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
PANHANDLE. STILL EXPECTING THE DRIER AIR TO KEEP STRATUS TO A
MINIMUM FARTHER EAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ALL AREAS
WILL SEE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN WITH A SOLID OVERCAST.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RESIDE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. THEN ON SATURDAY EXPECT A RAW DAY ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING INTO THE 50S DUE TO CLOUDS AND
COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EAST BUT DAMPENS AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW AT LEAST A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
THE AREA OF MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT TO MVFR/VFR A BIT LATER
THIS MORNING...16Z-18Z. THESE LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN TONIGHT
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AS MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE...VFR IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA. DOWNSTREAM...A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
HUDSON`S BAY TO EASTERN TEXAS PUTTING OUR REGION IN MODEST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA HAS
PROVEN TO BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPAWN A FEW RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH...IF ANYTHING...TO REACH THE GROUND AS OBS INDICATE ALL MID
CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GREAT PLAINS.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI EARLY TODAY. MID CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATER THIS MORNING BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A LARGE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
PCPN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN TO LOWER POPS IN OUR AREA AS BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.
DRY AIR TO OUR EAST WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
THE BASE OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL ROUND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED. THIS COULD BRING PCPN TO THE AREA BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HOWEVER MANY FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES
REMAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
354 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SPRINKLES SHOULD EXIT THE FCST AREA BY OR AROUND
15Z ACCORDING TO THE RAP MODEL. SOUTH WINDS KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS WRN NEB TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MIXING PROCESSES PRODUCING
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT ACCORDING TO THE
SREF MODEL.
HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE IN PLACE TODAY WITH COOL AIR RECYCLING
NORTHWARD. LOWS IN THE 50S FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONSIST OF A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA...AND A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. EXPECT A SYSTEM TO EJECT EAST FROM THE
WESTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE ENTIRE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO
TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER PATTERN FINALLY BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE.
AS MENTIONED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EAST INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SUNDAY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CANADA. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF RAIN UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD EAST
FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST MOST CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF RAIN TO
FALL FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE CIRCULATING INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA OFF THE HIGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL DELAY THE
RAIN UNTIL POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS AROUND
ONEILL...BARTLETT AND EWING.
THIS DRY AIR MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST IN REGARDS TO STRATUS
CLOUD COVER. IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH OF THE DRY AIR WILL MIX INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA...AND HELP TO THIN AND BREAK UP THE STRATUS CLOUD
DECK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
STRATUS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHERE THE DRY AIR LAYER WILL BE DEEPER. WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FRIDAY...MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH THAT A LOW CLOUD STRATUS DECK SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE
PANHANDLE. STILL EXPECTING THE DRIER AIR TO KEEP STRATUS TO A
MINIMUM FARTHER EAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ALL AREAS
WILL SEE THE LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN WITH A SOLID OVERCAST.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT THE COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RESIDE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED. THEN ON SATURDAY EXPECT A RAW DAY ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA...WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING INTO THE 50S DUE TO CLOUDS AND
COOL EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EAST BUT DAMPENS AS IT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW AT LEAST A LOW
CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS SEEMS WARRANTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CEILINGS IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA LESS THAN 3000 FEET AGL ALONG AND WEST OF A VTN-TIF-MCK
LINE. SHORT RANGE PROJECTION...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH CYCLE AND
THE NORTH AMERICAN MODEL...INDICATE THAT THE LOWER CEILINGS RE NIT
LIKELY TO DEVELOP EAST OF THAT LINE. THUS THE PROBABILITY OF
INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS VTN-LBF AND EAST IS LOW. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CEILINGS FOR LBF AND VTN ABOVE
1000 FEET AGL BUT BELOW 3000 FEET AGL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
342 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA. DOWNSTREAM...A LARGE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
HUDSON`S BAY TO EASTERN TEXAS PUTTING OUR REGION IN MODEST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA HAS
PROVEN TO BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SPAWN A FEW RADAR RETURNS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH...IF ANYTHING...TO REACH THE GROUND AS OBS INDICATE ALL MID
CLOUDS. LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE GREAT PLAINS.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI EARLY TODAY. MID CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATER THIS MORNING BUT HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF A LARGE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WITH CONTINUED EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
PCPN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN TO LOWER POPS IN OUR AREA AS BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.
DRY AIR TO OUR EAST WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AND SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
THE BASE OF THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL ROUND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION LATE IN THE EXTENDED. THIS COULD BRING PCPN TO THE AREA BY
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK HOWEVER MANY FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES
REMAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...KG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1014 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY QUIET BUT COOL THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BACKS TOWARD THE
AREA BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT THE GENERAL
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK
FOR THAT SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN RECENT TRENDS ARE FAVORING THAT
THE STORM AND ITS IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 10 PM...SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IS
MOVING EAST OF THE POCONOS LATE THIS EVENING TAKING MOST OF THE
RAIN WITH IT. MEANWHILE DRY COOL AIR IS FILTERING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM NORTHERN NY. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY LATE THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT... JUST A BIT TOO WARM FOR ANY
FROST OR FREEZE CONCERNS IN OUR AREA. MEANWHILE... THICKER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST PA WITH
SHOWERS ENDING AND TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
QUICK UPDATE AT 5 PM FOR A BAND OF RAIN THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE POCONOS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND SHOWS RAIN TRACKING FROM THE POCONOS
INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. HAVE RAISED POPS IN
THIS AREA TO COVER FOR THIS AREA OF RAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS SKY COVER FORECAST AND
PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS SKIRTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS TO OUR SOUTH WITH A STRONG HIGH TO OUR
NORTH.
AS OF MID AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS PUSHING UP INTO NE PA TOWARD
SULLIVAN COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE. ELSEWHERE STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH OVER CENTRAL NY WITH ONLY THE N/W BREAKING
INTO ANY REAL SUNSHINE. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MOSTLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH, CLOUDS LOOK TO HAVE A
TOUGH TIME BREAKING UP OVER NY SOUTHERN TIER WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING INTO THE FINGER LAKES. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COOL...MAINLY
IN THE LOW 40S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 30S THROUGH COLDER SPOTS SUCH
AS THE CATSKILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH TO
THE NORTH. EXPECT ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY DAY FROM THE NY SOUTHERN
TIER SOUTH WITH SOME MORNING SUN FARTHER NORTH GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. MOST OF THE AREA STAYS DRY THOUGH STILL
CAN`T RULE A OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHER AREAS
FROM LUZERNE EAST THROUGH SULLIVAN COUNTIES DUE TO FRONT SITTING
OFF TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS STAY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEGIN TO PUSH
BACK TO N/W THOUGH TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS TO MAKE LESS OF A N/W
PUSH INTO CWA DUE TO STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH. THEREFOR BRING
LIKELY TO CAT POPS INTO NE PA BUT ONLY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF JOAQUIN AND THE EURO HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. NOW...LATEST
TWO RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...KEEP JOAQUIN OFFSHORE AS WELL...INCRSG CONFIDENCE THAT
THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FCST AREA.
DEEP ELY FLOW AHD OF JOAQUIN WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE BLKG RDG OVER THE NE LIMITS IT/S NWRD
EXTENT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD RCH THE NY/PA BRDR 12Z
SAT...BUT RDGG FROM THE NORTH PUSHES SWRD AFT 00Z SUN KEEPING THE
AREA GNRLY DRY INTO MON. SOME WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW IN THE FORM OF
AN INV TROF MAY ALLOW SOME LGTR PCPN TO LIFT INTO WRN NY AND MAY
BRING SOME LGT SHWRS TO THE SW ZONES.
WLY/S GRAB JOAQUIN ON MON AND TUE AND EJECT IT EWRD. WLY FLOW OVER
THE FCST AREA WILL BRING A SHRT WV THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE AREA WED BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHWRS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS COOL
DRY AIR FLOWS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FROM
EASTERN CANADA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CIGS ABOVE 5000 FEET ACROSS NORTHEAST PA.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS.
.OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POTENTIAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FRONTAL ZONE BACKING INTO THE
AREA...AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF SLOWLY MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM.
TIMING AND TRACK SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEPTEMBER ENDED WET AND COOL. THIS PARTIALLY REVERSED THE DRY WARM
MONTH. NO PRECIP RECORDS WITH THE 1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS. BGM AND AVP BELOW NORMAL AND SYR ABOVE. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR AVP THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER EVER. BGM NUMBER 2 AND SYR NUMBER
3.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MSE/PCF
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
818 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY QUIET BUT COOL THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BACKS TOWARD THE
AREA BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT THE GENERAL
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK
FOR THAT SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN RECENT TRENDS ARE FAVORING THAT
THE STORM AND ITS IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE AT 5 PM FOR A BAND OF RAIN THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE POCONOS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND SHOWS RAIN TRACKING FROM THE POCONOS
INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. HAVE RAISED POPS IN
THIS AREA TO COVER FOR THIS AREA OF RAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS SKY COVER FORECAST AND
PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS SKIRTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS TO OUR SOUTH WITH A STRONG HIGH TO OUR
NORTH.
AS OF MID AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS PUSHING UP INTO NE PA TOWARD
SULLIVAN COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE. ELSEWHERE STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH OVER CENTRAL NY WITH ONLY THE N/W BREAKING
INTO ANY REAL SUNSHINE. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MOSTLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH, CLOUDS LOOK TO HAVE A
TOUGH TIME BREAKING UP OVER NY SOUTHERN TIER WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING INTO THE FINGER LAKES. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COOL...MAINLY
IN THE LOW 40S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 30S THROUGH COLDER SPOTS SUCH
AS THE CATSKILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH TO
THE NORTH. EXPECT ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY DAY FROM THE NY SOUTHERN
TIER SOUTH WITH SOME MORNING SUN FARTHER NORTH GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. MOST OF THE AREA STAYS DRY THOUGH STILL
CAN`T RULE A OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHER AREAS
FROM LUZERNE EAST THROUGH SULLIVAN COUNTIES DUE TO FRONT SITTING
OFF TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS STAY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEGIN TO PUSH
BACK TO N/W THOUGH TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS TO MAKE LESS OF A N/W
PUSH INTO CWA DUE TO STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH. THEREFOR BRING
LIKELY TO CAT POPS INTO NE PA BUT ONLY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF JOAQUIN AND THE EURO HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. NOW...LATEST
TWO RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...KEEP JOAQUIN OFFSHORE AS WELL...INCRSG CONFIDENCE THAT
THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FCST AREA.
DEEP ELY FLOW AHD OF JOAQUIN WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE BLKG RDG OVER THE NE LIMITS IT/S NWRD
EXTENT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD RCH THE NY/PA BRDR 12Z
SAT...BUT RDGG FROM THE NORTH PUSHES SWRD AFT 00Z SUN KEEPING THE
AREA GNRLY DRY INTO MON. SOME WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW IN THE FORM OF
AN INV TROF MAY ALLOW SOME LGTR PCPN TO LIFT INTO WRN NY AND MAY
BRING SOME LGT SHWRS TO THE SW ZONES.
WLY/S GRAB JOAQUIN ON MON AND TUE AND EJECT IT EWRD. WLY FLOW OVER
THE FCST AREA WILL BRING A SHRT WV THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE AREA WED BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHWRS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS COOL
DRY AIR FLOWS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA FROM
EASTERN CANADA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CIGS ABOVE 5000 FEET ACROSS NORTHEAST PA.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 KTS.
.OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POTENTIAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FRONTAL ZONE BACKING INTO THE
AREA...AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF SLOWLY MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM.
TIMING AND TRACK SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEPTEMBER ENDED WET AND COOL. THIS PARTIALLY REVERSED THE DRY WARM
MONTH. NO PRECIP RECORDS WITH THE 1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS. BGM AND AVP BELOW NORMAL AND SYR ABOVE. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR AVP THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER EVER. BGM NUMBER 2 AND SYR NUMBER
3.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MSE/PCF
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
140 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
TODAY...AND WILL BRING THE PROSPECT OF MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY ALLOWING THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF
VERMONT USHERING IN A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS FOR TONIGHT.
DESPITE SOME CONTINUED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 951 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
RIVERS ARE RISING AND WATCHING A FEW LIKE OTTER CREEK AT RUTLAND
AND MISSISQUOI AT NORTH TROY BUT AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MIGHT DODGE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON THE RIVERS.
FOR THE WEATHER...BLENDED IN SOME OF THE HRRR SIMULATED RADAR
TRENDS WHICH SHOWS DRY SLOT NOW MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN VERMONT
WITH HEAVIEST BAND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VT/NY THIS MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN OR SO IN FROM BTV
SOUTH AND EAST WHERE RAIN WILL BE MAINLY MODERATE BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
RAIN WILL LIGHTEN UP AND MOVE OUT GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH
THERE MAY STILL BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE RIGHT UNTIL
SUNSET FOR NORTHEAST VERMONT AND THE MOUNTAINS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...A COOL ONE WITH
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE.
HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED OBSERVED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL REPORTS
AROUND 4-4.5" IN NORTH UNDERHILL...LINCOLN AND WATERVILLE VT. WE
WILL ISSUE A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SHORTLY AFTER 10 AM
WITH MORE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY EXCEPT ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH 18-20Z TODAY. SURFACE FRONTAL
BNDRY HAS BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL VERMONT
AND THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AT 01Z...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 6-9 HRS. WE HAVE
SEVERAL DYNAMIC FEATURES IN PLAY THRU MID- AFTN. A STRENGTHENING
FRONTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN PA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL TRACK ENEWD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE REACHING
CENTRAL VT MID- LATE MORNING. THIS FEATURE ALSO STRENGTHENS WITHIN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 250MB JET ACROSS ERN QUEBEC. WE ALSO
HAVE A SFC MESOLOW ACROSS NERN PA/NWRN NJ EMBEDDED IN TROPICAL
REGIME WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2" (2.22"
OBSERVED AT 00Z WAL SOUNDING). HAVE SEEN RAINFALL RATES OF
0.50-0.60" PER HOUR WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITY AREA STREAMING NWD
FROM NEW YORK CITY VCNTY. AS FRONTAL WAVE SHIFTS ENEWD...SURGE OF
45-55KT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT DURING 12-18Z
PERIOD...WHICH CONTINUES CONCERN FOR FLOODING. ALSO NOTING STRONG
850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING 12-18Z...AND THIS MESOSCALE
CIRCULATION WILL AUGMENT SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND ENHANCE RAINFALL
RATES. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-3" OF RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...WITH CONTINUED PROSPECTS FOR MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS.
RUNOFF COULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN RIVER RISES THRU THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR PRECIPITATION AND
HYDRO TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL CAA CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
READINGS STAY IN THE MID 60S ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT UNTIL FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES LATE THIS AFTN...AND FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD AND OUT OF THE
REGION. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT EASTERN VT BY 21Z OR
SO...AND WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS ACCORDINGLY FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HRS. SOME CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO NRN NY
TOWARD SUNSET...BUT UPPER CIRRUS CANOPY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
MOST SECTIONS HEADING THRU THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MUCH QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER
ANTICIPATED AS FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED ACROSS ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC BECOMES OUR CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE. HAVE SHOWN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MODERATELY STRONG FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE PERIOD (NORTH 15-20 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS THURSDAY) BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPR 50S FOR THURSDAY....AND GENERALLY MID 50S ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SHELTERED SECTIONS OF NRN
NY...THOUGH CONTINUED SWLY UPR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS AND MITIGATE EXTENT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ALSO COULD SEE WINDS CONTINUE ABOVE 5 MPH DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HRS...WHICH WOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR FROST FORMATION. HAVE LEFT
OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR NOW. HAVE INDICATED LOW
TEMPERATURES UPR 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOCALLY NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE
NRN ADIRONDACK REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY...BUT POPS WILL BE INCREASING AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO
WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS THIS IS
HAPPENING...TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES
WITH REGARDS TO MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND TRACK/EVOLUTION OF
JOAQUIN. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
WILL GIVE THE MODELS DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING TRACKS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP JOAQUIN OFF THE COAST...WITH SLIGHT TREND
WEST WITH REGARDS TO TRACK. A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS SUNDAY. OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST BUT WITH JOAQUIN
TRACKING INTO A MIDLEVEL RIDGE HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS,
WHICH SHOWS JOAQUIN INTERACTING WITH CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS LOW WILL PULL JOAQUIN ONTO THE COAST
AROUND DELMARVA AND COMBINE WITH THE 500MB LOW... RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. THE LOW WILL BE SLOW
TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS OF POTENTIAL RAINFALL.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR EVOLVING SYSTEMS AS MOISTURE FROM JOAQUIN AND
RESULTING RAINFALL COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER RISES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SINCE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES...HAVE
LEFT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE BTV AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITY BELOW 6SM NOTED ON SURFACE OBS AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT MIX OF IFR/MVFR WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS, SLOWLY LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR AFTER
00Z AND EVENTUALLY VFR AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. MODERATE WINDS
FROM THE NORTH CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE, BUT WILL LOWER TO JUST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15KTS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z THU - 00Z MON...VFR. VLIFR/LIFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KSLK/KMPV
05-13Z SUNDAY.
00Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 355 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. THE COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED SOUTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTH
WINDS 18-25 KTS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE
MET THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE NORTH. WAVES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE, PARTICULARLY HIGHEST IN
BAYS AND INLETS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WAVES MAY
BRIEFLY REACH 3 TO 5 FT TONIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ007>012-018-019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/SISSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...LAHIFF
MARINE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
951 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
TODAY...AND WILL BRING THE PROSPECT OF MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING
ON RIVERS AND STREAMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY ALLOWING THE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF
VERMONT USHERING IN A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS FOR TONIGHT.
DESPITE SOME CONTINUED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS QUEBEC AND ONTARIO WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 951 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
RIVERS ARE RISING AND WATCHING A FEW LIKE OTTER CREEK AT RUTLAND
AND MISSISQUOI AT NORTH TROY BUT AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MIGHT DODGE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON THE RIVERS.
FOR THE WEATHER...BLENDED IN SOME OF THE HRRR SIMULATED RADAR
TRENDS WHICH SHOWS DRY SLOT NOW MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN VERMONT
WITH HEAVIEST BAND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VT/NY THIS MORNING.
STILL EXPECTING UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN OR SO IN FROM BTV
SOUTH AND EAST WHERE RAIN WILL BE MAINLY MODERATE BUT LOCALLY
HEAVY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
RAIN WILL LIGHTEN UP AND MOVE OUT GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH
THERE MAY STILL BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE RIGHT UNTIL
SUNSET FOR NORTHEAST VERMONT AND THE MOUNTAINS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...A COOL ONE WITH
TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE.
HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED OBSERVED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL REPORTS
AROUND 4-4.5" IN NORTH UNDERHILL...LINCOLN AND WATERVILLE VT. WE
WILL ISSUE A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SHORTLY AFTER 10 AM
WITH MORE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY EXCEPT ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH 18-20Z TODAY. SURFACE FRONTAL
BNDRY HAS BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL VERMONT
AND THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AT 01Z...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 6-9 HRS. WE HAVE
SEVERAL DYNAMIC FEATURES IN PLAY THRU MID- AFTN. A STRENGTHENING
FRONTAL WAVE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN PA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL TRACK ENEWD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE REACHING
CENTRAL VT MID- LATE MORNING. THIS FEATURE ALSO STRENGTHENS WITHIN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 250MB JET ACROSS ERN QUEBEC. WE ALSO
HAVE A SFC MESOLOW ACROSS NERN PA/NWRN NJ EMBEDDED IN TROPICAL
REGIME WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2" (2.22"
OBSERVED AT 00Z WAL SOUNDING). HAVE SEEN RAINFALL RATES OF
0.50-0.60" PER HOUR WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITY AREA STREAMING NWD
FROM NEW YORK CITY VCNTY. AS FRONTAL WAVE SHIFTS ENEWD...SURGE OF
45-55KT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT DURING 12-18Z
PERIOD...WHICH CONTINUES CONCERN FOR FLOODING. ALSO NOTING STRONG
850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING 12-18Z...AND THIS MESOSCALE
CIRCULATION WILL AUGMENT SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND ENHANCE RAINFALL
RATES. COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-3" OF RAINFALL ACROSS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT...WITH CONTINUED PROSPECTS FOR MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS.
RUNOFF COULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN RIVER RISES THRU THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR PRECIPITATION AND
HYDRO TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
OTHERWISE...WILL SEE LOW-LEVEL CAA CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND NORTH FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
READINGS STAY IN THE MID 60S ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT UNTIL FRONTAL WAVE
PASSES LATE THIS AFTN...AND FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD AND OUT OF THE
REGION. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT EASTERN VT BY 21Z OR
SO...AND WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS ACCORDINGLY FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HRS. SOME CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO NRN NY
TOWARD SUNSET...BUT UPPER CIRRUS CANOPY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
MOST SECTIONS HEADING THRU THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MUCH QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER
ANTICIPATED AS FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED ACROSS ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC BECOMES OUR CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE. HAVE SHOWN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MODERATELY STRONG FROM
THE NORTH DURING THE PERIOD (NORTH 15-20 MPH DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HRS THURSDAY) BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-
UPR 50S FOR THURSDAY....AND GENERALLY MID 50S ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SHELTERED SECTIONS OF NRN
NY...THOUGH CONTINUED SWLY UPR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS AND MITIGATE EXTENT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
ALSO COULD SEE WINDS CONTINUE ABOVE 5 MPH DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HRS...WHICH WOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR FROST FORMATION. HAVE LEFT
OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR NOW. HAVE INDICATED LOW
TEMPERATURES UPR 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT LOCALLY NEAR FREEZING IN THE COLDER SPOTS WITHIN THE
NRN ADIRONDACK REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY...BUT POPS WILL BE INCREASING AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO
WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS THIS IS
HAPPENING...TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES
WITH REGARDS TO MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND TRACK/EVOLUTION OF
JOAQUIN. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOWS AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
WILL GIVE THE MODELS DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING TRACKS.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP JOAQUIN OFF THE COAST...WITH SLIGHT TREND
WEST WITH REGARDS TO TRACK. A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS SUNDAY. OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST BUT WITH JOAQUIN
TRACKING INTO A MIDLEVEL RIDGE HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS,
WHICH SHOWS JOAQUIN INTERACTING WITH CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS LOW WILL PULL JOAQUIN ONTO THE COAST
AROUND DELMARVA AND COMBINE WITH THE 500MB LOW... RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTH ON
SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. THE LOW WILL BE SLOW
TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD PROVIDING SEVERAL DAYS OF POTENTIAL RAINFALL.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR EVOLVING SYSTEMS AS MOISTURE FROM JOAQUIN AND
RESULTING RAINFALL COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RIVER RISES
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SINCE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES...HAVE
LEFT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...RAIN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AN AREA OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND PRODUCE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z- 16Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM
THE NORTH AT 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS EXPECTED.
RAIN WILL EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS, WITH BOUTS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE MID MORNING...WITH PRECIP ENDING
IN THE AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THE EVENING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH
AT 5-10KTS AND SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DRY AND VFR WITH
BRIEF WINDOW OF HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 355 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. THE COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED SOUTH OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTH
WINDS 18-25 KTS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE
MET THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE NORTH. WAVES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE, PARTICULARLY HIGHEST IN
BAYS AND INLETS ON THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. WAVES MAY
BRIEFLY REACH 3 TO 5 FT TONIGHT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VTZ007>012-018-019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/SISSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
940 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. LATER
TONIGHT...NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SPREADS NORTHEASTERLY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE
STRETCHED POPS INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE LAST CHANGE WAS TO WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN RELUCTANT
TO DISSIPATE WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT OVER THE AREA MORE IN LINE
WITH LATEST MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THE WIND SITUATION. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH SHOWER CHANCES ENTERING THE WEST LATE. PREVIOUS
FORECAST REFLECTED THIS RATHER WELL...AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
ADJUST NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE STORMS A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
STRONG WINDS SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES AND SHEYENNE RIVER
VALLEYS...THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE LEADING IMPULSES
EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ESTABLISHES ITSELF BETWEEN THE ONTARIO SURFACE HIGH AND DEVELOPING
WYOMING SURFACE LOW. THE 12 UTC GFS/NAM FORECAST 0.5 KM WINDS OF
40-45 KTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN TO SUPPORT SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 45 MPH.
THUS...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THEREAFTER....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST INTO MID
WEEK...SUPPORTING COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
SCT -TSRA WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING WITH LCL MVFR CIGS/IFR VIS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. STRONG SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AREA WIDE
ON FRIDAY. GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KBIS/KJMS/KMOT/KISN...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE AT KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1236 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE NEEDED WITH THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. JUST
TWEAKED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
RUNS AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOSING OFF
OVERNIGHT. LATEST THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 21-22Z AND SPREAD SOUTH SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 901 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
CUT DOWN ON CLOUD COVER JUST A LITTLE BIT BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS. DECIDED TO
BUMP UP WINDS SLIGHTLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EAST BASED ON
RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KJMS. ALSO DELAYED ONSET OF ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL 21Z IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
BASED ON LATEST RAP AND NAM RUNS. OTHER THAN THAT...FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK AND NO OTHER MAJOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA IS PRODUCING A MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S AND HAVE
NOT DROPPED AS LOW AS FORECAST. SOME AREAS COULD DROP A COUPLE
MORE DEGREES BUT IN GENERAL THINK WE HAVE SEEN OVERNIGHT LOWS.
WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THIS. MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP
ON RADAR OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TRACKING NORTHEAST. ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EARLY MORNING SHOWER HERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AREA...WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES RESULTED IN SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
IN THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP.
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WERE SOUTHERLY...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT H925 AT 30 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDS WELL NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA. IT IS
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHOWER THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS...AND HAS SINCE MOVED NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA. THIS
INDICATES INSTABILITY IS GREAT ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS. THIS LOW LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...HELPING TO KEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF SASK/MAN THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALL THERE
TONIGHT. THE INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE PUSH
OF DRY AIR FROM THE WEST...ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF POTENTIAL
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE. GIVEN FAIRLY LOW
BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF 250-500 J/KG MOST AREA...WILL OPT FOR CHANCES
OF SHOWERS BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE
SHOWERS.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD LINK WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET...AND BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LOOKING AT 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE JAMES RIVER
BASIN...TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE LONG TERM PERIOD OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH
SASKATCHEWAN RETROGRADES WESTWARD FROM MANITOBA BACK INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS WITH THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY GETS
PULLED NORTHWARD...OUT OF THE REGION...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW REMAINING
SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN LOW...BUT
BY THIS TIME THE FOCUS SHIFTS WESTWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER CIRCULATION IN COMBINATION
WITH AN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
WILL RESULT IN A BROADER....MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR LIKELY POPS WEST AND A
CHANCE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH
CHANCE POPS REMAINING OVER THE WEST SATURDAY. THE SHOWERS
GRADUALLY DWINDLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SIGNIFICANT EC/GFS MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BEYOND SUNDAY IN THE
HANDLING OF THE SECOND WEST COAST UPPER LOW. AND THE AMOUNT OF
INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE NORTHERN STREAM JET.
VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUE TO ERODE WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON WARMING...WHILE CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
KBIS/KMOT/KJMS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL RESIDE IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE GUSTS OF UP TO 32 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF KDIK AFTER 09Z THURSDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES LIKELY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER ALL OTHER SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
906 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
CUT DOWN ON CLOUD COVER JUST A LITTLE BIT BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS. DECIDED TO
BUMP UP WINDS SLIGHTLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EAST BASED ON
RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KJMS. ALSO DELAYED ONSET OF ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL 21Z IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
BASED ON LATEST RAP AND NAM RUNS. OTHER THAN THAT...FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK AND NO OTHER MAJOR UPDATES WERE NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA IS PRODUCING A MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S AND HAVE
NOT DROPPED AS LOW AS FORECAST. SOME AREAS COULD DROP A COUPLE
MORE DEGREES BUT IN GENERAL THINK WE HAVE SEEN OVERNIGHT LOWS.
WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THIS. MADE SOME CHANGES TO SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP
ON RADAR OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TRACKING NORTHEAST. ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EARLY MORNING SHOWER HERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
CURRENTLY...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AREA...WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AT
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES RESULTED IN SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
IN THE LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP.
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WERE SOUTHERLY...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT H925 AT 30 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDS WELL NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA. IT IS
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHOWER THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS...AND HAS SINCE MOVED NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA. THIS
INDICATES INSTABILITY IS GREAT ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS. THIS LOW LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...HELPING TO KEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF SASK/MAN THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALL THERE
TONIGHT. THE INCREASING CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE PUSH
OF DRY AIR FROM THE WEST...ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF POTENTIAL
SHOWERS/THUNDER OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE. GIVEN FAIRLY LOW
BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF 250-500 J/KG MOST AREA...WILL OPT FOR CHANCES
OF SHOWERS BUT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE
SHOWERS.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE SURFACE LAYER SHOULD LINK WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET...AND BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LOOKING AT 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE JAMES RIVER
BASIN...TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HIGHLIGHTS THE LONG TERM PERIOD OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ON THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH
SASKATCHEWAN RETROGRADES WESTWARD FROM MANITOBA BACK INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AS A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS WITH THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...AND THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY GETS
PULLED NORTHWARD...OUT OF THE REGION...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE COULD BE A FEW REMAINING
SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN LOW...BUT
BY THIS TIME THE FOCUS SHIFTS WESTWARD AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LOW BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER CIRCULATION IN COMBINATION
WITH AN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
WILL RESULT IN A BROADER....MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR LIKELY POPS WEST AND A
CHANCE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HIGH
CHANCE POPS REMAINING OVER THE WEST SATURDAY. THE SHOWERS
GRADUALLY DWINDLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SIGNIFICANT EC/GFS MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BEYOND SUNDAY IN THE
HANDLING OF THE SECOND WEST COAST UPPER LOW. AND THE AMOUNT OF
INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE NORTHERN STREAM JET.
VERY COOL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CLOUDS BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FEET
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFFECTING
THE KBIS/KMOT/KJMS TAFS. FARTHER WEST SOME MVFR CIGS WERE NOTED AT
KHEI AND EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO KDIK. KEPT A SCT DECK AT
KDIK AND KISN FOR NOW.
THE MODELS BRING IN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO SOUTHERN SASK/MAN
AND INTO NORTHERN ND THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT MENTION SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLE THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE
OF SHOWERS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH/JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
945 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
HRRR AND RAP HAVE BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IN
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWING
NOT MUCH POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT-TERM. THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED AND
REDUCED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS FOR THIS EVENING. STILL A
DECENT SIGNAL OF DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
SIGNAL LOOKS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. CURRENT POST-MIDNIGHT
POPS LOOKED FINE FOR NOW. ALSO OVERHAULED THE DEWPOINT AND
ASSOCIATED HOURLY GRIDS AS THE DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA
IS MOVING IN MUCH SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS GRIDS INDICATED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/
AVIATION...
BAND OF MID/LOW CLOUDS CONT TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTN. COULD SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMET OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS WEST OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE AREA... HOWEVER BELIEVE THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.
30
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...
MUCH DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THIS AIR
WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT. THEREFORE...AREAS THAT REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT WILL EXPERIENCE RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY.
LATER TONIGHT...WEAK WAA OVER WEST TEXAS AND INCREASING 8H FLOW...MAY
RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION
MAY MOVE OR DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...AS A STRONG WEST COAST SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN MOVE INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 50 71 48 69 / 10 0 10 20
HOBART OK 54 72 51 68 / 20 20 20 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 56 76 51 75 / 10 10 10 10
GAGE OK 51 66 47 63 / 30 40 40 60
PONCA CITY OK 47 69 45 68 / 0 0 10 10
DURANT OK 53 76 50 76 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
829 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 00Z SHOWS AN AREA OF LGT RAIN ACROSS THE SE
QUADRANT OF PA ASSOC LIFT AT NOSE OF MOIST ENE LL JET. NR TERM MDL
GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVR SE PA THIS
EVENING THEN SHIFT SOUTH OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT...AS HIGH
PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS NUDGE SOUTH FROM ONTARIO/UPSTATE NY.
RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
RAIN WILL RUN ROUGHLY FROM KAOO TO KSEG LATE THIS EVENING...THEN
SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT BASED
ON BLEND OF LATEST MDL QPF RANGES FROM NOTHING NORTH OF I-80...TO
PERHAPS 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U30S OVER THE NW MTNS...WHERE
PTCLDY SKIES EXPECTED...TO THE L50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY...WHERE A SOLID OVERCAST SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SREF AND GEFS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE INCREASING SELY FLOW
BRINGING RAIN BACK TO THE NW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. BY EVENING IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE...PERHAPS A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE. A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH TO THE NORTH AND HURRICANE
JOAQUIN OFF THE SE COAST WILL CREATE A BREEZY FRIDAY...WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS CLOSE TO 20KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HINTED AT LATELY...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROS THE NW TODAY.
HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING AT WET WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A LARGE HIGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA RESULTS IN A NE TO E FLOW BECOMING MORE SE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVDER THE SE THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPANDING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE MODELS HINT AT THESE AREA SHOULD
DIE BY SUNSET...HARD TO SEE THIS OCCURRING.
THUS REGARDLESS OF INPUT FROM THE TROPICS...STILL LOOKING AT A
WINDY...COOL...WET PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND. DID LOWER TEMPS
SOME AND UP WINDS SOME.
SOME RAIN COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND MAYBE TUE AM...DEPENDING
ON THE INTERACTION OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WITH THE HURRICANE.
LEFT QPF CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAD...JUST A TAD LOWER FURTHER OUT
IN TIME. STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
WOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
FRONTAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB LIKELY TO BE INTENSE...AS COLDER AIR
BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NY AND WARM...TROPICAL AIR ADVECTS
TO THE NW FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILINGS IN THE 1500-2500` RANGE REMAIN STUBBORNLY STUCK OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR SOME VERY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SERN TERMINALS COULD BE THE EXCEPTION WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE REGION KEEPING MARGINAL CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FURTHER LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY FROM SE TO NW AS STEADIER RAIN AND LOWER CIGS PUSH
NORTHWESTWARD.
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
TUE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
356 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DRAWS MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SURFACE LOW AS OF 1PM IS AROUND PORTSMOUTH NH WITH A
FRESHENING NORTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA
IN ITS WAKE. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS IN THE REMAINS OF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM ABOUT TN UP INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND.
THE FRESHENING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRYER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION WITH THE HRRR SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF JUST SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY NIGHTFALL.
THE TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS OF 10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW/MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T STRAY TOO FAR OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. I DID HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE FAR SERN
ZONES...BUT FOR THE UPDATE I CHOSE TO KEEP IT DRY...BUT SHOWERS
WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY OVER MD AND NJ.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SOME SUNSHINE BEING OVER THE NW ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OVER SERN PA...GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. I LEANED
CLOSER TO A BLENDED MOS SOLUTION WHICH HAS A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
ABOUT THE SERN 1/3 OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
HIGHS THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 60...COOLER NORTH...MILDER SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
ALSO ADDED CHC OF RAIN INTO MONDAY.
ALSO LOWER TEMPS SOME AND UP WINDS.
MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT BACKING TO THE WEST BY LATE SAT.
THIS WOULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE HEAVIST RAIN COULD MOVE WEST OF OUR AREA BY LATE SAT OR
EARLY SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING AT A STRONG EAST TO SE FLOW OF
AIR OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...HEAVY
RAIN ETC.
ALSO STILL SOME TIME TO DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTION
WITH WITH THE TROPICS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STALLED OUT FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL COAST WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO BE LIFTED OVER IT AND PULLED NWWD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWWD TWD CENTRAL PENN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
EVEN IF SOON TO BE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES A TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATL REGION PER THE EC AND LATEST TPC GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
AND BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW /WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS -4 TO -5
SIGMA EASTERLY LLVL WIND AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR/ WILL
TRANSPORT PULSE OF RAIN INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...UP AND OVER THE
VERY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS PENN. TEMPS SATURDAY...MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE
THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD EDGE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 15 DEG
IN SOME AREAS.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE MDT AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE NRN EDGE OF A 2 INCH/24 HOUR AREA OF RAIN SKIRTING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS A PRE TYPE EVENT...WITH MORE DIRECT EFFECTS /IF
ANY/ FROM JOAQUIN COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF MVFR...WITH SOME IFR OVER THE
NW MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN IMPROVING AND THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF REMAINING SUB VFR WILL BE FROM
JOHNSTOWN NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BRADFORD
AREAS...BUT ELSEWHERE CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO 3000-5000` BY
NIGHTFALL.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
SAT-MON...RAIN LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DRAWS MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW AS OF 1PM IS AROUND PORTSMOUTH NH WITH A
FRESHENING NORTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA
IN ITS WAKE. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS IN THE REMAINS OF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM ABOUT TN UP INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND.
THE FRESHENING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRYER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION WITH THE HRRR SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF JUST SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY NIGHTFALL.
THE TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS OF 10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW/MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT DOESN`T STRAY TOO FAR OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. I DID HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OVER THE FAR SERN
ZONES...BUT FOR THE UPDATE I CHOSE TO KEEP IT DRY...BUT SHOWERS
WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY OVER MD AND NJ.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 50S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SOME SUNSHINE BEING OVER THE NW ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OVER SERN PA...GUIDANCE DIFFERS AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. I LEANED
CLOSER TO A BLENDED MOS SOLUTION WHICH HAS A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
ABOUT THE SERN 1/3 OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
HIGHS THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 60...COOLER NORTH...MILDER SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STALLED OUT FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL COAST WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO BE LIFTED OVER IT AND PULLED NWWD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWWD TWD CENTRAL PENN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
EVEN IF SOON TO BE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES A TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATL REGION PER THE EC AND LATEST TPC GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
AND BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW /WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS -4 TO -5
SIGMA EASTERLY LLVL WIND AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR/ WILL
TRANSPORT PULSE OF RAIN INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...UP AND OVER THE
VERY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS PENN. TEMPS SATURDAY...MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE
THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD EDGE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 15 DEG
IN SOME AREAS.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE MDT AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...AND THE LATEST GEFS SHOWS THE
NRN EDGE OF A 2 INCH/24 HOUR AREA OF RAIN SKIRTING OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
IS A PRE TYPE EVENT...WITH MORE DIRECT EFFECTS /IF ANY/ FROM
JOAQUIN COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A MAINLY DRY FCST FOR MONDAY INTO TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF MVFR...WITH SOME IFR OVER THE
NW MOUNTAINS. CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN IMPROVING AND THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF REMAINING SUB VFR WILL BE FROM
JOHNSTOWN NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...BRADFORD
AREAS...BUT ELSEWHERE CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO 3000-5000` BY
NIGHTFALL.
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
SAT-MON...RAIN LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1040 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DRAWS MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESO ANAL AS OF 10 AM HAS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR SPRINGFIELD MASS
ON A TRACK OFF TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE. NORTHERLY FLOW IN ITS
WAKE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRYING CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
THE HRRR SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF THE LAST OF THE STEADY RAIN
TAPERING TO JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY WILL CREATE A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW/MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
TEMPS IN THE U50S NORTH...AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...BREEZY AND
COOLER CONDITIONS WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND SOUTHERN
TIER OF PENN BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NW
MTNS...TO THE LOWER 50S THROUGHOUT THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S...TO AROUND 60S IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STALLED OUT FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL COAST WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO BE LIFTED OVER IT AND PULLED NWWD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWWD TWD CENTRAL PENN FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
EVEN IF SOON TO BE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES A TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATL REGION PER THE EC AND LATEST TPC GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
AND BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW /WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS -4 TO -5
SIGMA EASTERLY LLVL WIND AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR/ WILL
TRANSPORT PULSE OF RAIN INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...UP AND OVER THE
VERY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS PENN. TEMPS SATURDAY...MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE
THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD EDGE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 15 DEG
IN SOME AREAS.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE MDT AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND...AND THE LATEST GEFS SHOWS THE
NRN EDGE OF A 2 INCH/24 HOUR AREA OF RAIN SKIRTING OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
IS A PRE TYPE EVENT...WITH MORE DIRECT EFFECTS /IF ANY/ FROM
JOAQUIN COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A MAINLY DRY FCST FOR MONDAY INTO TUE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. AS THE LOW
MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT GUSTING TO 20-25 KT COMMON BY
AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN LIKELY WITH RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING...ESP SOUTHEAST
HALF. GUSTY WINDS POSS.
SAT-SUN...RAIN LIKELY WITH WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. GUSTY WINDS
POSS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
104 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
IMPACTS OF LIGHT SHWRS MOST POSSIBLE CSV THRU 30/20Z...BUT VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT MID STATE TAF SITES. CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT LIGHT SHWRS
CKV/BNA...BUT VSBY IMPACTS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL...AND THUS WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME. PER EXPECTED DEEPENING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS MID STATE...AND A CAA PATTERN SETTING UP BEHIND SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE...
POST FRONTAL MVFR TO IFR CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED. WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS
TO AROUND 10KTS EXPECTED ALSO...WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS...FOG
POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED...AND ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT STILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
01/06Z-01/14Z CKV/CSV...WILL NOT MENTION AS OF THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1231 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE ANY MORNING
WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT...AND TO TWEAK HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1013 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY
CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS. PER LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUNS...AND IN LINE WITH CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...TAILORED
BEST PCPN CHANCES OF RAINFALL THRU AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS UPPER
CUMBERLAND REGION...WITH DECREASING RAINFALL CHANCES FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS ACROSS MID STATE.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/
AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.
BNA/CKV/CSV...UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE
MID STATE. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE WORSE AT CSV, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
FARTHER WEST. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY,
AND GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN A SPECIFIC TIME AT EACH
TERMINAL, WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH REMARKS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT DENSE FOG,
BUT CIGS WILL DROP BACK DOWN AFTER 00Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/
UPDATE...BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAS NOW EDGED INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL MIDDLE TN, JUST NORTH OF NASHVILLE, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE DROPPING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. AS A RESULT,
HAVE LOWERED RAIN TODAY`S POPS JUST A BIT OVER WESTERN COUNTIES,
AND REPLACED THE WORDING OF "SCATTERED" TO "CHANCE" TO REFLECT A
LOWERED CONFIDENCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WILL RELEASE A NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THESE "WESTERN
ADJUSTMENTS" SHORTLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 72 59 68 54 / 30 10 20 40
CLARKSVILLE 70 56 68 52 / 20 10 10 20
CROSSVILLE 72 57 62 52 / 60 30 50 60
COLUMBIA 74 59 70 52 / 30 10 20 30
LAWRENCEBURG 75 59 70 53 / 30 10 10 20
WAVERLY 71 58 70 52 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1231 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE ANY MORNING
WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT...AND TO TWEAK HRLY TEMP...
DEWPOINT...SKY CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1013 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY
CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS. PER LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUNS...AND IN LINE WITH CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...TAILORED
BEST PCPN CHANCES OF RAINFALL THRU AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS UPPER
CUMBERLAND REGION...WITH DECREASING RAINFALL CHANCES FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS ACROSS MID STATE.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/
AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.
BNA/CKV/CSV...UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE
MID STATE. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE WORSE AT CSV, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
FARTHER WEST. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY,
AND GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN A SPECIFIC TIME AT EACH
TERMINAL, WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH REMARKS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT DENSE FOG,
BUT CIGS WILL DROP BACK DOWN AFTER 00Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/
UPDATE...BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAS NOW EDGED INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL MIDDLE TN, JUST NORTH OF NASHVILLE, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE DROPPING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. AS A RESULT,
HAVE LOWERED RAIN TODAY`S POPS JUST A BIT OVER WESTERN COUNTIES,
AND REPLACED THE WORDING OF "SCATTERED" TO "CHANCE" TO REFLECT A
LOWERED CONFIDENCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WILL RELEASE A NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THESE "WESTERN
ADJUSTMENTS" SHORTLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 72 59 68 54 / 30 10 20 40
CLARKSVILLE 70 56 68 52 / 20 10 10 20
CROSSVILLE 72 57 62 52 / 60 30 50 60
COLUMBIA 74 59 70 52 / 30 10 20 30
LAWRENCEBURG 75 59 70 53 / 30 10 10 20
WAVERLY 71 58 70 52 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1013 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REMOVE MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING. TWEAKED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...SKY
CONDITION...AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION GRIDS. PER LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUNS...AND IN LINE WITH CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...TAILORED
BEST PCPN CHANCES OF RAINFALL THRU AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS UPPER
CUMBERLAND REGION...WITH DECREASING RAINFALL CHANCES FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS ACROSS MID STATE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/
AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.
BNA/CKV/CSV...UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE
MID STATE. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE, FOG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE WORSE AT CSV, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
FARTHER WEST. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY,
AND GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN NAILING DOWN A SPECIFIC TIME AT EACH
TERMINAL, WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH REMARKS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO PREVENT DENSE FOG,
BUT CIGS WILL DROP BACK DOWN AFTER 00Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/
UPDATE...BAND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAS NOW EDGED INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL MIDDLE TN, JUST NORTH OF NASHVILLE, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE DROPPING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. AS A RESULT,
HAVE LOWERED RAIN TODAY`S POPS JUST A BIT OVER WESTERN COUNTIES,
AND REPLACED THE WORDING OF "SCATTERED" TO "CHANCE" TO REFLECT A
LOWERED CONFIDENCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY. OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WILL RELEASE A NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THESE "WESTERN
ADJUSTMENTS" SHORTLY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 72 59 68 54 / 30 10 20 40
CLARKSVILLE 70 56 68 52 / 20 10 10 20
CROSSVILLE 72 57 62 52 / 60 30 50 60
COLUMBIA 74 59 70 52 / 30 10 20 30
LAWRENCEBURG 75 59 70 53 / 30 10 10 20
WAVERLY 71 58 70 52 / 20 10 10 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
334 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WAS ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DURING THE NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY ROLL INTO OUR AREA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION, EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE MID-STATE
AS THE MORNING WEARS ON, AND AS SFC DEW POINT FRONT PUSHES INTO
WESTERN AREAS.
.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON, DEEPENING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, AND KEEPING SFC DEW POINT FRONT PARKED GENERALLY FROM NEAR
WAYNESBORO TO CELINA, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
CONTINUING EAST OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
BELIEVE HRRR MODEL IS DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB WITH PRECIP PATTERN
TODAY AND HAVE FASHIONED OUR QPF FORECAST FOR TODAY IN LINE WITH
HRRR PREDICTION.
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MORNING LOWS. THE HIGH IN
PORTLAND, DICKSON AND CLARKSVILLE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 69
OR 70 DEGREES. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MAKE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER RECOVERY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUR
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF DEEPENING TENNESSEE VALLEY
TROUGH EVEN FURTHER TONIGHT, WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF AROUND BNA
BY 18 TOMORROW. THIS MEANS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL STAY WITH US
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
AREAS.
AS CLOSED UPPER LOW SINKS ALMOST DUE SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY, BELIEVE
AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL ROTATE WESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW, WITH RAIN CHANCES ACTUALLY
INCREASING A BIT IN THE MID STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OUR FRIENDLY UPPER LOW JUST HANGS AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY MIGRATING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS MEANS CLOUDS WILL BE STICKING WITH US THROUGH THE
PERIOD, ALONG WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN HELPING TO HOLD OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM...UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK,
ALLOWING FOR A DRYING TREND. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 73 59 68 54 / 40 10 20 40
CLARKSVILLE 71 56 68 52 / 40 10 10 20
CROSSVILLE 72 57 62 52 / 60 30 50 60
COLUMBIA 74 59 70 52 / 40 10 20 30
LAWRENCEBURG 75 59 70 53 / 40 10 10 20
WAVERLY 72 58 70 52 / 40 10 10 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
905 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL PUSH WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 825 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MSAS SHOWING LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH AS
THE WEDGE ENHANCES BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST AND THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING. LATEST EVENING SOUNDINGS
ALSO STILL SHOWING SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH HAS KEPT RAIN TO A
MINIMUM EARLY TONIGHT. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE BRINGING PATCHY
RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO THE WEDGE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
PROGGED ON THE LIGHT SIDE PER LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLE AND HRRR OUTPUT.
THIS MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER EARLIER GFS AND WELL BELOW THE
QPF FROM THE NAM WHICH SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE INCREASING EASTERLY 85H JET. THUS CUT BACK ON POPS EARLY ON
AND THEN KEPT CLOSER TO PREVIOUS LIKELY/CATEGORICAL COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR MAINLY LOW QPF OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEAST AT THIS POINT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COOL AS
WELL WITH LOWS MOSTLY LOW/MID 50S AND SOME 40S ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OTHER THAN TO UPDATE FOR POTENTIAL DEBRIS AND FALLING TREES DUE TO
WET SOILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEEPING AN EYE ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED ACROSS OUR AREA WITHIN
THE PAST 24 HOURS NOW SITS JUST OFF THE COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES LIES AND INDUCED WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...RESULTING
IN A NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF COOL AIR INTO THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S AND
UPPER 50S...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES OBSERVED PASSING ACROSS THE
AREA...TRIGGERING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IN SPOTS.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DRIFTS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER BANDS OF RAIN...WHICH MAY START TO BECOME
MODERATE IN INTENSITY AT TIMES TOWARD DAWN AS THE GREATER
INSTABILITY APPROACHES OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM
BUCKINGHAM SOUTHWARD TO CASWELL. WILL ALSO START TO SEE RAIN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES TO AROUND 35 MPH...BRINGING
DEEPER MOISTURE IN FROM THE ATLANTIC TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH UPPER 40S EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER
RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...
STILL ON TRACK FOR A MAJOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT THAT WILL AFFECT OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING...AS WELL AS LANDSLIDES...NUMEROUS
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT NONE OF THE HAZARDS DISCUSSED
HERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE CONCERNING HURRICANE JOAQUIN
INDICATES AN INCREASING PROBABILITY THAT THE STORM WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE...AND WILL NOT IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
ALL WEATHER MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...
ALLOWING A BOUNDARY OF STRONG CONVERGENCE TO DRIFT INLAND FROM THE
COAST ACROSS OUR AREA. MODELS HAVE STARTED INDICATING THAT THE
BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN MAY ARRIVE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED...WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN ENTERING OUR PIEDMONT
COUNTIES EAST OF A DANVILLE TO LYNCHBURG LINE DURING LATE FRIDAY
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN WILL THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS EASTERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE RAMP UP TO
45 TO 50 MPH...FEEDING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN.
MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD STALLING THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL PROLONG THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF
ROANOKE. LOWER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN CELLS IS LIKELY...MEANING THAT SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN MAY ACCUMULATE OVER A GIVEN AREA IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME.
FACTOR IN THAT THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA IS ALREADY
SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS...IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE
NEW RAINFALL WILL TRANSLATE TO RUNOFF VERY QUICKLY...LEADING TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. AS SUCH...FEEL COMFORTABLE IN
INCLUDING SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE IN THE
EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE POSSIBILITY
OF ROCKSLIDES/LANDSLIDES.
AS RAINFALL BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY...
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO RIVER FLOODING. WITH THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUMEROUS RIVERS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO FLOOD CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...
SOME POSSIBLY INTO MAJOR FLOOD. ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE
POTENTIAL OF RIVER FLOODING CAN BE FOUND BELOW IN THE HYDRO
SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...
GENERALLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT JOAQUIN
WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER ITS NOT
UNANIMOUS IN THIS VERY COMPLEX PATTERN SO WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE WOODS YET. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRACK
AND FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY MONDAY. WHILE MAIN DEFORMATION
ZONE AND BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA
NEAR THE BORDER IN SOUTH CAROLINA OR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...THERE
IS STILL A STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME OVERRUNNING AND
UPSLOPE INTO THE NW NC MTNS. FEEL THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP MAINLY INTO NORTH CAROLINA PARTS OF
OUR FCST AREA. AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MORE THAN A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY UPPER CLOSED LOW AND
POSSIBILITY IT MAY REMAIN MORE STATIONARY...CANT RULE OUT SOMEWHAT
HIGHER RAINFALL CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES STILL
LOOKS GOOD.
BY MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT ONLY LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP ALONG
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LINGERING...IF ANY AT ALL...AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS MORE EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT RIVER RUNOFF ISSUES LIKELY
TO CONTINUE. OBVIOUSLY...IF JOAQUIN DOES STILL MANAGE TO GET PULLED
WEST...ALL THIS COULD CHANGE FOR MONDAY...AND CONTINUED SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WOULD BE OF
CONCERN. BUT AGAIN...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
THE ADDITIONAL GOOD NEWS IS THAT FOR THE REMINDER OF NEXT WEEK A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN....WHICH IS THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS...WITH A MUCH NEEDED DRYING PERIOD AND
APPEARANCE OF THE SUN AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE 70S AGAIN...ANY FLOOD WATERS ON RIVERS WILL RECEDE...AND
RAPIDLY GROWING GRASS CAN BE MOWED AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT THURSDAY...
BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS FALLING THROUGH MVFR TO IFR
LEVELS ESPCLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES IN ACROSS
THE EAST LATER TONIGHT AND ELSEWHERE FROM FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SUB VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN LOW CIGS
INCLUDING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG FOR MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST DURING THE TAF PERIOD AND
COULD GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION. ANOTHER CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL
BE SPEED SHEAR ALOFT AS A 40-50KT 850MB JET SCREAMS OVERHEAD WHICH
COULD MAKE FOR PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. STEADIER RAINFALL
SHOULD TAPER TO MORE SHOWERY NATURE BY SUNDAY WITH LINGERING MVFR
TO IFR CIGS LIKELY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
FINALLY BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO MORE IN THE WAY
OF VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE LOWER ROANOKE AND
DAN RIVERS...EVEN THOUGH RANDOLPH AND DANVILLE HAVE FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...DUE TO THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION EVENT WHICH WILL
DRIVE STAGES HIGHER AGAIN. THIS EVENT STILL PROMISES TO BE A MAJOR
RAIN-MAKER AND FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE 4 RFCS THAT SERVE OUR
AREA SHOW RIVER FLOODING IN ALL BASINS EXCEPT FOR THE TENNESSEE.
ALL GUIDANCE IS BASED ON FORECAST RAINFALL (QPF) OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS WHICH ACCORDING TO THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
VARIES FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES...GREENBRIER
AND TENNESSEE BASIN TO AS MUCH AS 7 TO 9 INCHES IN THE UPPER NEW
AND YADKIN. 4 TO 5 INCHES IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL
RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE ROANOKE..MIDDLE NEW AND LOWER JAMES. NO
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED YET ON THESE RIVERS DUE TO THE
HIGH UNCERTAINTY USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH QPF-BASED RIVER
FORECASTS.
CURRENT FORECAST HYDROGRAPHS ON THE AHPS PAGE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
PAGE AT HTTP:/WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=RNK DO NOT YET
REFLECT THE ENTIRE AMOUNT OF FORECAST RAINFALL. YET EVEN WITHOUT THE
FULL QPF...SEVERAL RIVERS ARE FORECAST WELL INTO THE MODERATE
CATEGORY. IF THE RAIN DOES REACH CURRENT WPC FORECAST TOTALS THEN
MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE ON SEVERAL RIVERS AS IS
SHOWN ON SEVERAL RECENT RUNS OF THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (MMEFS). UPDATES TO THE RIVER FORECASTS ARE LIKELY
EVERY 6 TO 12 HOURS DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION AND STABILITY OF
EXISTING FORECASTS.
FLASH FLOODING IS CLEARLY A HIGH PROBABILITY IN THIS EVENT AS WELL.
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AT 3-HOURS RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND WILL BE FALLING QUICKLY AS RAIN MOVES IN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT.
FINALLY...THE POSSIBILITY OF LANDSLIDES AND MAJOR DEBRIS FLOWS
CANNOT BE IGNORED. IT HAS BEEN SHOWN IN SEVERAL POST-EVENT STUDIES
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THAT RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT LANDSLIDE ACTIVITY. PARTS OF WATAUGA
COUNTY NC HAVE EXPERIENCED VERY SEVERE LANDSLIDES IN THE
PAST...MOST NOTABLY BACK IN AUGUST 1940. THE STEEPER TERRAIN OF
THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA HAS ALSO SUFFERED SEVERE
LANDSLIDES...HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969 BEING THE BEST EXAMPLE OF A
HIGH END EVENT. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTAINS CALL TO
ACTION WORDING FOR POSSIBLE LANDSLIDES IN SEVERAL COUNTIES.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035-043.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR VAZ007-009.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ044>047-058-
059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ005-006.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...CF/JH
HYDROLOGY...AMS/NF/PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1144 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRY TO SHIFT INTO THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL CAP WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MAKING IT VERY FAR EAST. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OR AT LEAST
ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIE OFF AROUND INTERSTATE 25.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME ELEVATED AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
SLIDES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. HRRR MODEL...WHICH HAS HANDLED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
DOES DEVELOP ELEVATED CONVECTION. BASED ON THE HRRR THE ACTIVITY
OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WILL DIE OFF AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING/NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE ANOTHER BATCH OF
ACTIVITY WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BY MID EVENING. FORECAST POPS GENERALLY REPRESENT THE
HRRR SOLUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ARE VERY
UNLIKELY BUT A FEW WINDS GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH AND PEA SIZED
HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
THIS EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT IN HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE STRATUS
AND FOG WILL MAKE IT BUT IT COULD PARALLEL THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR A
WHILE TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BECOME WEST ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE WESTERN FLANKS OF
FOG AND STRATUS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF WEAK THETAE
ADVECTION NEAR THE TOP OF A SHALLOW SATURATED INVERSION. MOST OF
THE FOG/LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE WILL ERODE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW BUT PLACES LIKE ALLIANCE AND
SIDNEY NEBRASKA MAY NOT SEE THE SUN TOMORROW AS A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MAY HOLD THE STRATUS IN PLACE.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMAL WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES IN AND NEAR THE SNOWY RANGE AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG INTO THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
THE CAP WILL HOLD AND IF THERE WILL BE ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN
PLACE. NOT CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE STORMS INTO THE PLAINS BUT IT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.
MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015
RAIN AND SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF MOVES EAST AND PIVOTS
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW STILL POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER MTNS BUT NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO ANY
ACCUMULATIONS INTO SAT MORNING SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. SOME
LULL IN THE PCPN ON SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT IMPULSE IN THE FLOW
ROTATES ACROSS SAT NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN. IN THE
MEANTIME A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW DRIFT NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SHORT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA SUNDAY DRYING
THINGS OUT AND ALLOWING FOR MILDER TEMPS AFTER A COOL DAY
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS SPREADING PCPN BACK OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AGAIN SNOWS LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MTN
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD...CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN NEB PANHANDLE
WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END BY LATE TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR FROM
KCYS TO KSNY...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON WED. ASIDE FROM FOG AT
KCYS BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH. THAT WILL BE THE ONLY AREA WITH ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH SNOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ABOVE
9000 FEET BUT COULD SEE SOME SNOW AS LOW AS 8000 FEET.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
233 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
DENSE FOG MAY AGAIN BE AN ISSUE ON THE HIGHER PASSES NEAR THE VA
BORDER SUCH AS US 119 BETWEEN WHITESBURG AND CUMBERLAND AND POUND
GAP BETWEEN JENKINS AND WISE CO VA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
THE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTHWEST FROM THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE STATE...DRIVEN BY ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT IN ON
NORTHEAST FLOW. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR AND RAP13...AS WELL AS RADAR TRENDS. ALSO
UPDATED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. ALSO DID AN
UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO MAINLY REMOVE EVENING WORDING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS EAST
KENTUCKY FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THIS IS RESULTING IN BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS THROUGHOUT EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...ADDING TO THE
CHILL. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE COVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A
MORE CONCENTRATED PATCH OF RAIN TAKING SHAPE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT THIS AREA TO EXPAND NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH MOST PLACES SEEING MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...THOUGH
THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST SPOT FOR AMOUNTS NEAR OR
ABOVE A QUARTER OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL GO BASICALLY NOWHERE
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW CURRENT READINGS IN
THE MID 50S...AND DEWPOINTS SIMILAR FOR THIS NEARLY SATURATED
ENVIRONMENT. ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG...PARTICULARLY ON THE RIDGES
OVERNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THESE THOUGHTS IN MIND...
ALSO INCORPORATING THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE AND CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS FOR THE T AND TD ONES. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY IN NORTHEAST/EAST
FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PLACE. MOISTURE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
AT TIMES. THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH WAVES CROSS
THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE EAST WILL KEEP THE THREAT
OF RAIN GOING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT A CONTINUATION
OF THE DAMP...COOL...AND CLOUDY PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
HOLD IN THE MID 50S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY WITH LOWS NOT MUCH COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF COOL AND VERY WET...AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GULF COAST PUMPS MOISTURE INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE NEXT TO NONE AND LIFT MINIMAL. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE SLOW MOVING...AS IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL TAKE QUITE A WHILE FOR
THE PRECIPITATION TO COMPLETELY EXIT THE AREA. BASED ON CURRENT
THINKING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT...THE SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STEADILY LOWERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. EASTERN KENTUCKY
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE WEEK
SHOULD BE DRY AND PLEASANT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOK TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TO START...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AROUND 60
ON SATURDAY WHILE WE ARE SOCKED IN BY CLOUDS AND RAIN. A GRADUAL
WARM UP SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW PULLS
EASTWARD AND RAIN SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED IN NATURE AND WE BEGIN TO
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IS A
REASONABLE EXPECTATION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE EVEN WARMER...AS THE RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED AND
SKIES GO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AROUND NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...WITH
VALUES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EACH NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL KEEP THE STRATUS
LOCKED IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. CEILINGS IN THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE...NEAR OR BELOW
AIRPORT MINS IN SOME CASES SHOULD IMPROVE BY THE 15Z TO 22Z
PERIOD...THOUGH THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE PERSISTENT RAIN SHOULD MOVE
IN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH CIGS AND OR VIS LIKELY DROPPING AGAIN.
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO
THE LOW CLOUDS...WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SHROUDED BY THE LOW CLOUDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
IT LOOKS LIKE SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING ACROSS ERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL BE CARRIED NORTH INTO WRN NEB BY EARLY
AFTN. THIS MOISTURE WILL BECOME FOUNDATION FOR A SLOWLY
PROPAGATING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
THE ECM...RAP AND NAM MODELS APPEAR TO SUPPORT THIS FORECAST AND
QPF TOTALS OF AROUND 1/4 TO PERHAPS 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WITH LESS AMOUNTS WEST. GIVEN THE DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE BELOW 12KFT...THE FCST ONSET OF RAIN HAS BEEN DELAYED A FEW
HOURS. THE RAP MODEL APPEARS TO BE VERY FAST.
HIGHS TODAY RISE TO AROUND 60 WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. THE
RAIN TONIGHT WILL OPERATE ON DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO
PRODUCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
A CHILLY START TO SATURDAY EXPECTED WITH A WARM UP NEXT WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME THUNDER. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
POCKETS OF NEAR ZERO TO NEG LIFTED INDEX PROJECTIONS...WITH
FORECAST TO MENTION ISOLD T. THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WILL LIMIT MIXING AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE
50...AND COULD EASILY SEE SOME SITES HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES DOMINATE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...AS IT DIGS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARM AIR TO GET DRAWN NORTHWARD.
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS
DRYING OUT. LITTLE LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER SO EXPECT GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. THAT SAID...STILL SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS WITH
THE HIGH RH IN THE MID LEVELS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS
OF SPRINKLES. NO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
MONITOR. THE CLOUDS DESPITE WAA WILL LIMIT WARMING TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SUNDAY.
WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION FOR MID WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THE CWA...HOWEVER
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING GREATLY WITH TRACKING OF THIS LOW. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO LIFT THE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE THE EC
CUTS THE LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH SCENARIOS ARE
PLAUSIBLE DUE TO THE BLOCKY RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WITH
THIS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WILL LIMIT CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES WITH CIGS AROUND
10000 FT AGL. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH CIGS FALLING OFF TO
8000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10
KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS FRIDAY. SOME GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
328 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY QUIET BUT COOL THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BACKS TOWARD THE
AREA BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT THE GENERAL
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK
FOR THAT SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN RECENT TRENDS ARE FAVORING THAT
THE STORM AND ITS IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 10 PM...SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IS
MOVING EAST OF THE POCONOS LATE THIS EVENING TAKING MOST OF THE
RAIN WITH IT. MEANWHILE DRY COOL AIR IS FILTERING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM NORTHERN NY. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY LATE THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT... JUST A BIT TOO WARM FOR ANY
FROST OR FREEZE CONCERNS IN OUR AREA. MEANWHILE... THICKER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST PA WITH
SHOWERS ENDING AND TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
QUICK UPDATE AT 5 PM FOR A BAND OF RAIN THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE POCONOS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND SHOWS RAIN TRACKING FROM THE POCONOS
INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. HAVE RAISED POPS IN
THIS AREA TO COVER FOR THIS AREA OF RAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS SKY COVER FORECAST AND
PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS SKIRTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS TO OUR SOUTH WITH A STRONG HIGH TO OUR
NORTH.
AS OF MID AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS PUSHING UP INTO NE PA TOWARD
SULLIVAN COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE. ELSEWHERE STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH OVER CENTRAL NY WITH ONLY THE N/W BREAKING
INTO ANY REAL SUNSHINE. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MOSTLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH, CLOUDS LOOK TO HAVE A
TOUGH TIME BREAKING UP OVER NY SOUTHERN TIER WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING INTO THE FINGER LAKES. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COOL...MAINLY
IN THE LOW 40S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 30S THROUGH COLDER SPOTS SUCH
AS THE CATSKILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH TO
THE NORTH. EXPECT ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY DAY FROM THE NY SOUTHERN
TIER SOUTH WITH SOME MORNING SUN FARTHER NORTH GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. MOST OF THE AREA STAYS DRY THOUGH STILL
CAN`T RULE A OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHER AREAS
FROM LUZERNE EAST THROUGH SULLIVAN COUNTIES DUE TO FRONT SITTING
OFF TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS STAY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEGIN TO PUSH
BACK TO N/W THOUGH TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS TO MAKE LESS OF A N/W
PUSH INTO CWA DUE TO STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH. THEREFOR BRING
LIKELY TO CAT POPS INTO NE PA BUT ONLY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 AM FRIDAY UPDATE... THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CONSENSUS IS TAKE THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD, WELL
OFFSHORE, ON MONDAY, THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THEREAFTER. ANY LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL TO START THIS PERIOD
SHOULD REMAIN EITHER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, OR PERHAPS
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN ANY EVENT, PROBABILITIES ARE
DECREASING WITH TIME THAT WE`LL SEE MUCH, IF ANY, ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA ON MONDAY.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS RAIN-FREE, WITH SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST, AND A DRY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
OCTOBER, WITH DAILY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION COULD BE KAVP LATER FRIDAY EVENING, WHEN
MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS COULD SNEAK IN FROM THE SOUTH.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT BY MIDDAY, WITH SOME 20-25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY KAVP, KBGM, AND KELM.
.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM LOWER
CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEPTEMBER ENDED WET AND COOL. THIS PARTIALLY REVERSED THE DRY WARM
MONTH. NO PRECIP RECORDS WITH THE 1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS. BGM AND AVP BELOW NORMAL AND SYR ABOVE. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR AVP THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER EVER. BGM NUMBER 2 AND SYR NUMBER
3.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/MSE
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
153 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY QUIET BUT COOL THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BACKS TOWARD THE
AREA BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT THE GENERAL
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK
FOR THAT SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN RECENT TRENDS ARE FAVORING THAT
THE STORM AND ITS IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 10 PM...SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IS
MOVING EAST OF THE POCONOS LATE THIS EVENING TAKING MOST OF THE
RAIN WITH IT. MEANWHILE DRY COOL AIR IS FILTERING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM NORTHERN NY. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY LATE THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY OVERNIGHT... JUST A BIT TOO WARM FOR ANY
FROST OR FREEZE CONCERNS IN OUR AREA. MEANWHILE... THICKER CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST PA WITH
SHOWERS ENDING AND TEMPERATURES SETTLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
QUICK UPDATE AT 5 PM FOR A BAND OF RAIN THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE POCONOS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND SHOWS RAIN TRACKING FROM THE POCONOS
INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. HAVE RAISED POPS IN
THIS AREA TO COVER FOR THIS AREA OF RAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS SKY COVER FORECAST AND
PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS SKIRTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS TO OUR SOUTH WITH A STRONG HIGH TO OUR
NORTH.
AS OF MID AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS PUSHING UP INTO NE PA TOWARD
SULLIVAN COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE. ELSEWHERE STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH OVER CENTRAL NY WITH ONLY THE N/W BREAKING
INTO ANY REAL SUNSHINE. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MOSTLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH, CLOUDS LOOK TO HAVE A
TOUGH TIME BREAKING UP OVER NY SOUTHERN TIER WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING INTO THE FINGER LAKES. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COOL...MAINLY
IN THE LOW 40S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 30S THROUGH COLDER SPOTS SUCH
AS THE CATSKILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH TO
THE NORTH. EXPECT ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY DAY FROM THE NY SOUTHERN
TIER SOUTH WITH SOME MORNING SUN FARTHER NORTH GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. MOST OF THE AREA STAYS DRY THOUGH STILL
CAN`T RULE A OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHER AREAS
FROM LUZERNE EAST THROUGH SULLIVAN COUNTIES DUE TO FRONT SITTING
OFF TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS STAY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEGIN TO PUSH
BACK TO N/W THOUGH TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS TO MAKE LESS OF A N/W
PUSH INTO CWA DUE TO STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH. THEREFOR BRING
LIKELY TO CAT POPS INTO NE PA BUT ONLY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF JOAQUIN AND THE EURO HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. NOW...LATEST
TWO RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...KEEP JOAQUIN OFFSHORE AS WELL...INCRSG CONFIDENCE THAT
THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FCST AREA.
DEEP ELY FLOW AHD OF JOAQUIN WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE BLKG RDG OVER THE NE LIMITS IT/S NWRD
EXTENT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD RCH THE NY/PA BRDR 12Z
SAT...BUT RDGG FROM THE NORTH PUSHES SWRD AFT 00Z SUN KEEPING THE
AREA GNRLY DRY INTO MON. SOME WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW IN THE FORM OF
AN INV TROF MAY ALLOW SOME LGTR PCPN TO LIFT INTO WRN NY AND MAY
BRING SOME LGT SHWRS TO THE SW ZONES.
WLY/S GRAB JOAQUIN ON MON AND TUE AND EJECT IT EWRD. WLY FLOW OVER
THE FCST AREA WILL BRING A SHRT WV THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE AREA WED BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHWRS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION COULD BE KAVP LATER FRIDAY EVENING, WHEN
MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS COULD SNEAK IN FROM THE SOUTH.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT BY MIDDAY, WITH SOME 20-25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY KAVP, KBGM, AND KELM.
.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM LOWER
CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEPTEMBER ENDED WET AND COOL. THIS PARTIALLY REVERSED THE DRY WARM
MONTH. NO PRECIP RECORDS WITH THE 1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS. BGM AND AVP BELOW NORMAL AND SYR ABOVE. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR AVP THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER EVER. BGM NUMBER 2 AND SYR NUMBER
3.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ/MSE
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1252 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
LEAD EMBEDDED WAVES ORIGINATING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN DEEP AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
NEAR TERM MODELS PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS
BASED ON LATEST HRRR/RAP/NMM GUIDANCE.
CLOUD COVER AND A STEADY SOUTHEAST WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S SO WARMED MIN T A BIT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. LATER
TONIGHT...NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND SPREADS NORTHEASTERLY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO HAVE
STRETCHED POPS INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE LAST CHANGE WAS TO WINDS WHICH HAVE BEEN RELUCTANT
TO DISSIPATE WITH MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE.
THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT OVER THE AREA MORE IN LINE
WITH LATEST MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THE WIND SITUATION. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
AREA OF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING...WITH SHOWER CHANCES ENTERING THE WEST LATE. PREVIOUS
FORECAST REFLECTED THIS RATHER WELL...AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
ADJUST NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE STORMS A BIT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
STRONG WINDS SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE JAMES AND SHEYENNE RIVER
VALLEYS...THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.
FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE LEADING IMPULSES
EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON FRIDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ESTABLISHES ITSELF BETWEEN THE ONTARIO SURFACE HIGH AND DEVELOPING
WYOMING SURFACE LOW. THE 12 UTC GFS/NAM FORECAST 0.5 KM WINDS OF
40-45 KTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
DOWN TO SUPPORT SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 45 MPH.
THUS...ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES THIS WEEKEND HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THEREAFTER....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST INTO MID
WEEK...SUPPORTING COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z FORECAST
PERIOD. SCT CLOUDS EAST WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS WEST ARE FORECAST
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD BASES LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 4-5K FT
AGL WEST. STRONG SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AREA WIDE
ON FRIDAY. GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KBIS/KJMS/KMOT/KISN...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE AT KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
547 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STAY ANCHORED OVER CROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND AN
EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND PERIODS OF RAIN...MAINLY LATE TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. POWERFUL
HURRICANE JOAQUIN NOW OVER THE BAHAMAS...APPEARS THAT HE WILL
TAKE A TRACK WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...AND HEAD
INTO THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP AT 09Z SHOWS INCREASINGLY PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN FALLING SEVERAL OF OUR SE COUNTIES /ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF KTHV...KMDT AND KMUI/.
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WAS EXPERIENCING CHILLY TEMPS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S...UNDER OVC SKIES WITH A LIGHT TO MDT NE SFC
WIND. BRADFORD HAS FALLING TO 38F THIS HOUR THANKS TO SOME THIN
SPOTS INTO CLOUD DECK.
THE 850 MB FRONT IS DRAPED FROM SERN VA...TO THE DELMARVA
REGION...WITH A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT EXTENDING NORTH TO BEYOND
THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE 850MB FLOW OFF THE OCEAN IS STILL FROM THE
ENE AND GENERALLY PARALLEL WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO PRECIP WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SPREADING QUICK TO THE NORTH AND WEST INTO OUR
CWA. LATEST MDL QPF RANGES FROM NOTHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA...TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH SOUTH OF HARRISBURG.
WILL CONTINUE TO EMPLOY A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND SREF FOR
THE ONSET TIMING...AREAL COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF LIGHT-MDT RAIN
PUSHING BACK TO THE NW AND TWD CENTRAL PENN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. 02/08Z HRRR RUN SHOWS THE NWRN EDGE OF STEADY/LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD REACH A KAOO TO KUNV AND KIPT LINE BY 23Z.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U30S OVER
THE NW MTNS...WHERE THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST WILL OCCUR...TO THE
L50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE A SOLID OVERCAST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAWN. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL EDGE INTO THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND
REACH MID AND UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
RAIN OVERSPREADS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS LATER TONIGHT...AND
CONTINNUES AT A LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...AND DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.
THE SREF AND GEFS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE INCREASING EAST TO
SELY FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH RAIN BACK TO THE NW DURING
THE DAY TODAY. BY THIS EVENING IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH
AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...PERHAPS A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR /BUT ONLY
PLUS 1 SIGMA AT 850 MB/ WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS. RAINFALL
RATES COULD BE BRIEFLLY HEAVY IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT HIGHLY LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGIFICAN RISES ON
IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE. A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH TO THE NORTH AND HURRICANE
JOAQUIN OFF THE SE COAST WILL CREATE A BREEZY FRIDAY...WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS CLOSE TO 20KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL LOOKING AT WET WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS THE LARGE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
RESULTS IN A NE TO E FLOW BECOMING MORE SE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THUS REGARDLESS OF INPUT FROM THE TROPICS...STILL LOOKING AT A
WINDY...COOL...WET PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND
MAYBE TUE AM...DEPENDING ON THE INTERACTION OF THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW WITH THE HURRICANE.
TRIMMED POPS AND QPF BY 20 PERCENT OR MORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE WWD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BAND SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB LIKELY TO BE
INTENSE...AS COLDER AIR BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NY AND
WARM...TROPICAL AIR ADVECTS TO THE NW FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS ACROSS NRN PA AT 09Z...WITH LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CONDS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ACROSS SERN TERMINALS ON
FRIDAY...AS STEADIER RAIN AND LOWER CIGS PUSH NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE AREA. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...GENERALLY VFR CONDS SHOULD
PERSIST ON FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER
ERN CANADA AND LOW PRES ACROSS THE SERN US WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK
LLVL ERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT...AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
TUE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
510 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP AT 07Z SHOWS SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS STREAMING NORTH INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WAS EXPERIENCING CHILLY TEMPS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S...UNDER OVC SKIES WITH A LIGHT TO MDT NERLY SFC WIND.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR ON NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE TREAT OF
ADDITIONAL LGT RAIN OVERNIGHT TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST OF HARRISBURG.
THE 850 MB FRONT IS DRAPED FROM SERN VA...TO THE DELMARVA
REGION...WITH A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT EXTENDING NORTH TO BEYOND
THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE 850MB FLOW OFF THE OCEAN IS STILL FROM THE
ENE AND GENERALLY PARALLEL WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO PRECIP WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SPREADING QUICK TO THE NORTH AND WEST INTO OUR
CWA. LATEST MDL QPF RANGES FROM NOTHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA...TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH SOUTH OF HARRISBURG.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND SREF FOR TIMING...AREAL COVERAGE
AND AMOUNT OF LIGHT-MDT RAIN PUSHING BACK TO THE NWD AND TWD
CENTRAL PENN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U30S OVER
THE NW MTNS...WHERE THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST WILL OCCUR...TO
THE L50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE A SOLID OVERCAST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE SREF AND GEFS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE INCREASING EAST TO
SELY FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH RAIN BACK TO THE NW DURING
THE DAY TODAY. BY THIS EVENING IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH
AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...PERHAPS A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE. A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH TO THE NORTH AND HURRICANE
JOAQUIN OFF THE SE COAST WILL CREATE A BREEZY FRIDAY...WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS CLOSE TO 20KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HINTED AT LATELY...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROS THE NW TODAY.
HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING AT WET WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A LARGE HIGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA RESULTS IN A NE TO E FLOW BECOMING MORE SE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE SE THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPANDING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE MODELS HINT AT THESE AREA SHOULD
DIE BY SUNSET...HARD TO SEE THIS OCCURRING.
THUS REGARDLESS OF INPUT FROM THE TROPICS...STILL LOOKING AT A
WINDY...COOL...WET PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND. DID LOWER TEMPS
SOME AND UP WINDS SOME.
SOME RAIN COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND MAYBE TUE AM...DEPENDING
ON THE INTERACTION OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WITH THE HURRICANE.
LEFT QPF CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAD...JUST A TAD LOWER FURTHER OUT
IN TIME. STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
WOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
FRONTAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB LIKELY TO BE INTENSE...AS COLDER AIR
BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NY AND WARM...TROPICAL AIR ADVECTS
TO THE NW FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS ACROSS NRN PA AT 09Z...WITH LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CONDS ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ACROSS SERN TERMINALS ON
FRIDAY...AS STEADIER RAIN AND LOWER CIGS PUSH NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE AREA. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...GENERALLY VFR CONDS SHOULD
PERSIST ON FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER
ERN CANADA AND LOW PRES ACROSS THE SERN US WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK
LLVL ERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT...AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
TUE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
322 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP AT 07Z SHOWS SOME AREAS OF VERY LIGHT
RAIN/SHOWERS STREAMING NORTH INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHILE
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WAS EXPERIENCING CHILLY TEMPS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S...UNDER OVC SKIES WITH A LIGHT TO MDT NERLY SFC WIND.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR ON NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE TREAT OF
ADDITIONAL LGT RAIN OVERNIGHT TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST OF HARRISBURG.
THE 850 MB FRONT IS DRAPED FROM SERN VA...TO THE DELMARVA
REGION...WITH A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT EXTENDING NORTH TO BEYOND
THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE 850MB FLOW OFF THE OCEAN IS STILL FROM THE
ENE AND GENERALLY PARALLEL WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO PRECIP WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SPREADING QUICK TO THE NORTH AND WEST INTO OUR
CWA. LATEST MDL QPF RANGES FROM NOTHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA...TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH SOUTH OF HARRISBURG.
FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND SREF FOR TIMING...AREAL COVERAGE
AND AMOUNT OF LIGHT-MDT RAIN PUSHING BACK TO THE NWD AND TWD
CENTRAL PENN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U30S OVER
THE NW MTNS...WHERE THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST WILL OCCUR...TO
THE L50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE A SOLID OVERCAST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAWN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE SREF AND GEFS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE INCREASING EAST TO
SELY FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH RAIN BACK TO THE NW DURING
THE DAY TODAY. BY THIS EVENING IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH
AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...PERHAPS A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE. A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH TO THE NORTH AND HURRICANE
JOAQUIN OFF THE SE COAST WILL CREATE A BREEZY FRIDAY...WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS CLOSE TO 20KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HINTED AT LATELY...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROS THE NW TODAY.
HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING AT WET WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A LARGE HIGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA RESULTS IN A NE TO E FLOW BECOMING MORE SE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE SE THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPANDING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE MODELS HINT AT THESE AREA SHOULD
DIE BY SUNSET...HARD TO SEE THIS OCCURRING.
THUS REGARDLESS OF INPUT FROM THE TROPICS...STILL LOOKING AT A
WINDY...COOL...WET PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND. DID LOWER TEMPS
SOME AND UP WINDS SOME.
SOME RAIN COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND MAYBE TUE AM...DEPENDING
ON THE INTERACTION OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WITH THE HURRICANE.
LEFT QPF CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAD...JUST A TAD LOWER FURTHER OUT
IN TIME. STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
WOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
FRONTAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB LIKELY TO BE INTENSE...AS COLDER AIR
BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NY AND WARM...TROPICAL AIR ADVECTS
TO THE NW FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS WITH LAST NIGHT...KJST IS EXPERIENCING THE LOWEST CIGS
OVERNIGHT AS EASTERLY FLOW UPSLOPES INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDS ACROSS NRN PA...WITH LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CONDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH.
FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS SERN
TERMINALS ON FRIDAY...AS STEADIER RAIN AND LOWER CIGS PUSH
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...GENERALLY VFR
CONDS SHOULD PERSIST ON FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRES OVER ERN CANADA AND LOW PRES ACROSS THE SERN US WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK LLVL ERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PA.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
TUE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
238 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...
UA RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST STILL HAS ITS ERN PERIPHERY
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...THUS PROMOTING N-NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE THAT HAS ROUNDED THE TOP OF THE UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROMOTING
AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE
FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO ACROSS THE NRN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SE TX
PANHANDLE. THE ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE
APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT...THOUGH HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF HINTS AT THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING A BIT MORE
SCATTERED BY SUNRISE /LIKELY PICKING UP ON INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE/ AND POSSIBLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS AND
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THE OTHER INTERESTING WX FEATURE IS AN AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS /BELOW 1000 FT AGL/ EXTENDING FROM THE ERN-HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES SE TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS THUS FAR.
THIS IS THANKS TO THE UPSLOPE SFC WINDS DRAWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS DECK...AND HENCE
SHOWS FURTHER LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
COMMENCING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS /AND MAYBE EVEN LIGHT FOG/...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE CLOUD DECKS MAY REMAIN
AOA 3000 FT AGL GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THERE /THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT/.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS DECK SCOURING OUT BY EARLY
AFTN...HOWEVER COOLER TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED
/70S AND 80S/ DUE TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS.
TONIGHT...THE UA RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY WHILST GETTING NUDGED EAST OF
THE FA MAKING WAY FOR AN UA LOW THAT IS PROGRESSING NE ACROSS NV
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES BY
TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE THE RESULT INITIALLY ACROSS THE WRN
ZONES...WHILE CONCURRENTLY A SFC TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE SAID AREA.
WITH PWATS HOLDING STEADY AOA 1.00 INCH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE SFC WIND COUPLED WITH THE LLJ KICKING UP TO 20-30 KTS...AND
THUS GIVING WAY TO ADEQUATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES /INITIALLY ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES/.
BEST 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SFC-BASED CAPE IS PROGGED W AND NW OF THE CWA
SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH 50S BEING COMMON ACROSS THE CWA...AND A FEW
40S NOTED ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE TAKING A SERIOUS DIVERGENCE.
UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE NEAR OR OVER THE FCST AREA
FOR QUITE A WHILE NOW WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN AS SERIOUS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DIVES SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST CARVING OUT A TROUGH
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AS IT DOES. A CLOSED LOW WILL END UP OVER SRN
CALIF AS THE NEXT WORK WEEK STARTS. FROM THERE MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE ECMWF MOVING THIS LOW SLOWLY IN A GENERALLY ESEWD DIRECTION TO
NEAR EL PASO BY END OF DAY THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS OPENS THIS
TROUGH UP AND MOVES IT QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS TO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTN. FCST NEAR EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN
FAVORED BY WPC AND GIVEN TRACK RECORDS OF THE MODELS WILL ALSO
LEAN TOWARD THAT SOLUTION.
RESULTING FCST IS THUS QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN RECENT WEEKS WITH
TEMPS MAINLY 50S FOR LOWS AND 70S FOR HIGHS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE TROUGH FORMING
TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS COME TO AN END SUNDAY AND FOR
THE MOST PART SO WILL RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME STORMS TO MOVE OUT OF ERN NM LATE SUNDAY. RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WAITING FOR THE
LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION. THAT SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY WHEN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED BY INCREASED
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT BRING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL QUITE
A WHILE TO GO BEFORE THEN WITH MANY MODEL RUNS YET TO COME...SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PCT RANGE ATTM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 75 49 70 49 / 10 40 40 40
TULIA 73 47 69 48 / 10 30 40 30
PLAINVIEW 74 48 72 50 / 10 20 30 30
LEVELLAND 79 53 75 52 / 10 20 30 40
LUBBOCK 76 52 75 53 / 10 20 30 20
DENVER CITY 81 56 79 55 / 10 20 30 40
BROWNFIELD 80 55 78 55 / 10 20 30 30
CHILDRESS 75 51 73 53 / 30 20 20 20
SPUR 77 52 77 53 / 20 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 80 55 81 56 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
506 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT THURSDAY...
COMBINATION OF DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AS ENERGY TRACKS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALABAMA INTO FLORIDA
AND UPSLOPE WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER WILL RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. USED THE GFS AND RAP MODELS TO TIME A BROAD
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 12Z/8AM SATURDAY.
USED WPC GUIDANCE AS A BASIS FOR THE RAINFALL FORECAST WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS. SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE INDICATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AS IT ADVANCED FROM YADKIN COUNTY INTO
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...BUT OVERALL NOT SEEING A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THIS EVENT. HAVE TONED BACK PREVIOUS
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT WILL STILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH THAT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING IS STILL HIGH.
NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCHED WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED WIND OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE BUT STILL WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE. SIMILAR TO PHILOSOPHY IN THE WINTER WHEN
HEADLINES ARE ISSUED BASED ON IMPACT...HAVE GONE WITH A NON
CONVENTIONAL HIGH WIND WATCH...ALSO BASED ON IMPACT SINCE WINDS
OF THAT MAGNITUDE ARE UNLIKELY.
VERY STRONG INVERSION SEEN ON 06Z SOUNDINGS AT ABOUT 2000 FT AGL WITH
PRONOUNCED LAYER OF STABLE...COOL AIR BENEATH THE INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE SHORT WAVE AXIS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP
LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. WE LOWERED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
/0.25/ FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT A HALF /0.50/ INCH ON
EASTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE TO AN INCH /1.00/
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA BLUE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF
THIS RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF LOWERING
AMOUNTS SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT (2-5 INCHES...LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE). ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL ONLY DELAY FLOOD WATERS FROM RECEDING. DESPITE SOME OF
THESE CHANGES...WE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
IS...DUE TO A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN THAT COULD CHANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN. WE ALSO ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH WINDS (10-25
MPH) WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...SATURATED GROUND...WET
FOLIAGE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD UPROOT TREES.
GENERALLY...BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT JOAQUIN
WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER ITS NOT
UNANIMOUS IN THIS VERY COMPLEX PATTERN SO WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE WOODS YET. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRACK AND
FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY MONDAY. THE MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE
AND BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA NEAR
THE BORDER IN SOUTH CAROLINA OR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...
BY MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT ONLY LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP ALONG
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LINGERING...IF ANY AT ALL...AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS MORE EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT RIVER RUNOFF ISSUES LIKELY
TO CONTINUE. OBVIOUSLY...IF JOAQUIN DOES STILL MANAGE TO GET PULLED
WEST...ALL THIS COULD CHANGE FOR MONDAY...AND CONTINUED SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WOULD BE OF
CONCERN. BUT AGAIN...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
THE ADDITIONAL GOOD NEWS IS THAT FOR THE REMINDER OF NEXT WEEK A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN....WHICH IS THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS...WITH A MUCH NEEDED DRYING PERIOD AND
APPEARANCE OF THE SUN AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE 70S AGAIN...ANY FLOOD WATERS ON RIVERS WILL RECEDE...AND
RAPIDLY GROWING GRASS CAN BE MOWED AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. BCB/BLF ARE ALREADY DOWN TO IFR CEILINGS...WHILE THE REST
ARE BARELY HANGING ON TO MVFR. EXPECT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
CEILINGS/VISBYS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL AND ALL TAF LOCATIONS
WILL BE IFR BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND HOLD THERE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND COULD GUST
TO 15-25KTS AT TIMES.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE E/NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BE
GUSTY AT TIMES. STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER TO MORE SHOWERY
NATURE BY SUNDAY WITH LINGERING MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO FINALLY BUILD IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE LOWER ROANOKE AND
DAN RIVERS...EVEN THOUGH RANDOLPH AND DANVILLE HAVE FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...DUE TO THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION EVENT WHICH WILL
DRIVE STAGES HIGHER AGAIN. THIS EVENT STILL PROMISES TO BE A MAJOR
RAIN-MAKER AND FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE 4 RFCS THAT SERVE OUR
AREA SHOW RIVER FLOODING IN ALL BASINS EXCEPT FOR THE TENNESSEE.
ALL GUIDANCE IS BASED ON FORECAST RAINFALL (QPF) OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS WHICH ACCORDING TO THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
VARIES FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES...GREENBRIER
AND TENNESSEE BASIN TO AS MUCH AS 7 TO 9 INCHES IN THE UPPER NEW
AND YADKIN. 4 TO 5 INCHES IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL
RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE ROANOKE..MIDDLE NEW AND LOWER JAMES. NO
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED YET ON THESE RIVERS DUE TO THE
HIGH UNCERTAINTY USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH QPF-BASED RIVER
FORECASTS.
CURRENT FORECAST HYDROGRAPHS ON THE AHPS PAGE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
PAGE AT HTTP:/WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=RNK DO NOT YET
REFLECT THE ENTIRE AMOUNT OF FORECAST RAINFALL. YET EVEN WITHOUT THE
FULL QPF...SEVERAL RIVERS ARE FORECAST WELL INTO THE MODERATE
CATEGORY. IF THE RAIN DOES REACH CURRENT WPC FORECAST TOTALS THEN
MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE ON SEVERAL RIVERS AS IS
SHOWN ON SEVERAL RECENT RUNS OF THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (MMEFS). UPDATES TO THE RIVER FORECASTS ARE LIKELY
EVERY 6 TO 12 HOURS DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION AND STABILITY OF
EXISTING FORECASTS.
FLASH FLOODING IS CLEARLY A HIGH PROBABILITY IN THIS EVENT AS WELL.
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AT 3-HOURS RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND WILL BE FALLING QUICKLY AS RAIN MOVES IN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT.
FINALLY...THE POSSIBILITY OF LANDSLIDES AND MAJOR DEBRIS FLOWS
CANNOT BE IGNORED. IT HAS BEEN SHOWN IN SEVERAL POST-EVENT STUDIES
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THAT RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT LANDSLIDE ACTIVITY. PARTS OF WATAUGA
COUNTY NC HAVE EXPERIENCED VERY SEVERE LANDSLIDES IN THE
PAST...MOST NOTABLY BACK IN AUGUST 1940. THE STEEPER TERRAIN OF
THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA HAS ALSO SUFFERED SEVERE
LANDSLIDES...HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969 BEING THE BEST EXAMPLE OF
A HIGH END EVENT. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTAINS CALL TO
ACTION WORDING FOR POSSIBLE LANDSLIDES IN SEVERAL COUNTIES.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035-043.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ012>020-022>024-032>035-043-045>047.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR VAZ007-009.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ044>047-058-
059.
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ001>004-018>020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ005-006.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...CF/JH
HYDROLOGY...AMS/NF/PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
142 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL PUSH WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 825 PM EDT THURSDAY...
MSAS SHOWING LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH AS
THE WEDGE ENHANCES BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST AND THE
RESIDUAL FRONT NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING. LATEST EVENING SOUNDINGS
ALSO STILL SHOWING SOME DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH HAS KEPT RAIN TO A
MINIMUM EARLY TONIGHT. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE BRINGING PATCHY
RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO THE WEDGE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
PROGGED ON THE LIGHT SIDE PER LATEST NCAR ENSEMBLE AND HRRR OUTPUT.
THIS MORE IN LINE WITH THE SLOWER EARLIER GFS AND WELL BELOW THE
QPF FROM THE NAM WHICH SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF
THE INCREASING EASTERLY 85H JET. THUS CUT BACK ON POPS EARLY ON
AND THEN KEPT CLOSER TO PREVIOUS LIKELY/CATEGORICAL COVERAGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR MAINLY LOW QPF OUTSIDE THE SOUTHEAST AT THIS POINT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COOL AS
WELL WITH LOWS MOSTLY LOW/MID 50S AND SOME 40S ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OTHER THAN TO UPDATE FOR POTENTIAL DEBRIS AND FALLING TREES DUE TO
WET SOILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEEPING AN EYE ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTING
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED ACROSS OUR AREA WITHIN
THE PAST 24 HOURS NOW SITS JUST OFF THE COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES LIES AND INDUCED WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...RESULTING
IN A NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF COOL AIR INTO THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS HELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S AND
UPPER 50S...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES OBSERVED PASSING ACROSS THE
AREA...TRIGGERING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN IN SPOTS.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DRIFTS
WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ALONG
THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER BANDS OF RAIN...WHICH MAY START TO BECOME
MODERATE IN INTENSITY AT TIMES TOWARD DAWN AS THE GREATER
INSTABILITY APPROACHES OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM
BUCKINGHAM SOUTHWARD TO CASWELL. WILL ALSO START TO SEE RAIN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES TO AROUND 35 MPH...BRINGING
DEEPER MOISTURE IN FROM THE ATLANTIC TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH UPPER 40S EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER
RIDGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...
STILL ON TRACK FOR A MAJOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT THAT WILL AFFECT OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING...AS WELL AS LANDSLIDES...NUMEROUS
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT NONE OF THE HAZARDS DISCUSSED
HERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE CONCERNING HURRICANE JOAQUIN
INDICATES AN INCREASING PROBABILITY THAT THE STORM WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE...AND WILL NOT IMPACT OUR WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
ALL WEATHER MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH...THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...
ALLOWING A BOUNDARY OF STRONG CONVERGENCE TO DRIFT INLAND FROM THE
COAST ACROSS OUR AREA. MODELS HAVE STARTED INDICATING THAT THE
BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN MAY ARRIVE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED...WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN ENTERING OUR PIEDMONT
COUNTIES EAST OF A DANVILLE TO LYNCHBURG LINE DURING LATE FRIDAY
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN WILL THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVERSPREADING THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS EASTERLY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE RAMP UP TO
45 TO 50 MPH...FEEDING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN.
MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD STALLING THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL PROLONG THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGHLANDS INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF
ROANOKE. LOWER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN CELLS IS LIKELY...MEANING THAT SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN MAY ACCUMULATE OVER A GIVEN AREA IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME.
FACTOR IN THAT THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA IS ALREADY
SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS...IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE
NEW RAINFALL WILL TRANSLATE TO RUNOFF VERY QUICKLY...LEADING TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING. AS SUCH...FEEL COMFORTABLE IN
INCLUDING SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE IN THE
EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE POSSIBILITY
OF ROCKSLIDES/LANDSLIDES.
AS RAINFALL BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO WEST ON SATURDAY...
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO RIVER FLOODING. WITH THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NUMEROUS RIVERS ACROSS OUR AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO FLOOD CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...
SOME POSSIBLY INTO MAJOR FLOOD. ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE
POTENTIAL OF RIVER FLOODING CAN BE FOUND BELOW IN THE HYDRO
SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...
GENERALLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT JOAQUIN
WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER ITS NOT
UNANIMOUS IN THIS VERY COMPLEX PATTERN SO WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE WOODS YET. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRACK
AND FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY MONDAY. WHILE MAIN DEFORMATION
ZONE AND BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA
NEAR THE BORDER IN SOUTH CAROLINA OR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...THERE
IS STILL A STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME OVERRUNNING AND
UPSLOPE INTO THE NW NC MTNS. FEEL THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP MAINLY INTO NORTH CAROLINA PARTS OF
OUR FCST AREA. AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MORE THAN A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY UPPER CLOSED LOW AND
POSSIBILITY IT MAY REMAIN MORE STATIONARY...CANT RULE OUT SOMEWHAT
HIGHER RAINFALL CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES STILL
LOOKS GOOD.
BY MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT ONLY LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP ALONG
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LINGERING...IF ANY AT ALL...AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS MORE EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT RIVER RUNOFF ISSUES LIKELY
TO CONTINUE. OBVIOUSLY...IF JOAQUIN DOES STILL MANAGE TO GET PULLED
WEST...ALL THIS COULD CHANGE FOR MONDAY...AND CONTINUED SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WOULD BE OF
CONCERN. BUT AGAIN...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
THE ADDITIONAL GOOD NEWS IS THAT FOR THE REMINDER OF NEXT WEEK A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN....WHICH IS THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS...WITH A MUCH NEEDED DRYING PERIOD AND
APPEARANCE OF THE SUN AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE 70S AGAIN...ANY FLOOD WATERS ON RIVERS WILL RECEDE...AND
RAPIDLY GROWING GRASS CAN BE MOWED AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IS SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. BCB/BLF ARE ALREADY DOWN TO IFR CEILINGS...WHILE THE REST
ARE BARELY HANGING ON TO MVFR. EXPECT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
CEILINGS/VISBYS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL AND ALL TAF LOCATIONS
WILL BE IFR BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND HOLD THERE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND COULD GUST
TO 15-25KTS AT TIMES.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE E/NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BE
GUSTY AT TIMES. STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER TO MORE SHOWERY
NATURE BY SUNDAY WITH LINGERING MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO FINALLY BUILD IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE LOWER ROANOKE AND
DAN RIVERS...EVEN THOUGH RANDOLPH AND DANVILLE HAVE FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...DUE TO THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION EVENT WHICH WILL
DRIVE STAGES HIGHER AGAIN. THIS EVENT STILL PROMISES TO BE A MAJOR
RAIN-MAKER AND FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE 4 RFCS THAT SERVE OUR
AREA SHOW RIVER FLOODING IN ALL BASINS EXCEPT FOR THE TENNESSEE.
ALL GUIDANCE IS BASED ON FORECAST RAINFALL (QPF) OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS WHICH ACCORDING TO THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
VARIES FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN PARTS OF THE UPPER JAMES...GREENBRIER
AND TENNESSEE BASIN TO AS MUCH AS 7 TO 9 INCHES IN THE UPPER NEW
AND YADKIN. 4 TO 5 INCHES IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL
RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE ROANOKE..MIDDLE NEW AND LOWER JAMES. NO
FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED YET ON THESE RIVERS DUE TO THE
HIGH UNCERTAINTY USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH QPF-BASED RIVER
FORECASTS.
CURRENT FORECAST HYDROGRAPHS ON THE AHPS PAGE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
PAGE AT HTTP:/WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=RNK DO NOT YET
REFLECT THE ENTIRE AMOUNT OF FORECAST RAINFALL. YET EVEN WITHOUT THE
FULL QPF...SEVERAL RIVERS ARE FORECAST WELL INTO THE MODERATE
CATEGORY. IF THE RAIN DOES REACH CURRENT WPC FORECAST TOTALS THEN
MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE ON SEVERAL RIVERS AS IS
SHOWN ON SEVERAL RECENT RUNS OF THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (MMEFS). UPDATES TO THE RIVER FORECASTS ARE LIKELY
EVERY 6 TO 12 HOURS DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION AND STABILITY OF
EXISTING FORECASTS.
FLASH FLOODING IS CLEARLY A HIGH PROBABILITY IN THIS EVENT AS WELL.
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AT 3-HOURS RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND WILL BE FALLING QUICKLY AS RAIN MOVES IN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT.
FINALLY...THE POSSIBILITY OF LANDSLIDES AND MAJOR DEBRIS FLOWS
CANNOT BE IGNORED. IT HAS BEEN SHOWN IN SEVERAL POST-EVENT STUDIES
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THAT RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT LANDSLIDE ACTIVITY. PARTS OF WATAUGA
COUNTY NC HAVE EXPERIENCED VERY SEVERE LANDSLIDES IN THE
PAST...MOST NOTABLY BACK IN AUGUST 1940. THE STEEPER TERRAIN OF
THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA HAS ALSO SUFFERED SEVERE
LANDSLIDES...HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969 BEING THE BEST EXAMPLE OF A
HIGH END EVENT. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTAINS CALL TO
ACTION WORDING FOR POSSIBLE LANDSLIDES IN SEVERAL COUNTIES.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035-043.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR VAZ007-009.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ044>047-058-
059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ005-006.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...CF/JH
HYDROLOGY...AMS/NF/PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
726 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE MASS PIKE. IT STILL APPEARS HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL TRACK FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE MONDAY TO LIMIT POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER THERE STILL IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT WARRANTS
JOAQUIN TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
725 AM UPDATE...
RAIN IS MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTH COAST REGION THIS
MORNING...ALONG AND S OF PVD-TAN-PYM WHERE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS
RESIDES. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER
ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR MA WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S. MODELS
SHOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY LIFTING N TODAY SO EXPECT RAIN TO
ADVANCE N ACCORDINGLY BUT GIVEN SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR THE RAIN WILL GET. HRRR BRINGS RAIN
ALL THE WAY TO MA-NH BORDER BUT THIS SEEMS TOO FAR N GIVEN THE DRY
AIR IN PLACE. CURRENT THINKING IS LIGHT RAIN WILL REACH BDL-BVY
LINE BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH FURTHER N GIVEN DRY AIR IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER. MEANWHILE...RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES CAPE/ISLANDS.
UPDATED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOTHER NATURES SQUEEZE PLAY ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES
WITH HIGH TO THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
FRONT HAS KEPT SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
THE FRONT WESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INCREASE THE
PRECIP CHANCES FROM SE TO NW. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A BATTLE
BETWEEN THE DRY AIR TO THE NORTH WHICH COULD LIMIT PRECIP FROM
ADVANCING TOO FAR NORTHWESTWARD. RIGHT NOW HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
THAT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A IJD TO BVY HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
PRECIP. PRECIP AMOUNTS WONT BE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED...WITH 1-2 INCHES FOR CAPE AND ISLANDS...0.5 INCHES ON
A BOS TO HFD LINE. EVERYWHERE ELSE COULD SEE A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS. AGAIN AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT THERE COULD BE A TIGHT QPF
GRADIENT DUE TO THE DRY AIR.
THIS SQUEEZE PLAY HAS ALSO INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION ALLOWING FOR STRONG NE WINDS. SEVERAL SITES ALONG THE
COAST HAVE GUSTED TO 40 MPH WITH A FEW SITES REACHING TO 45 MPH.
ANTICIPATE THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADV FOR THE
SOUTH COAST FOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH THEY MAY COME UP SHORT TODAY...WITH
RECENT RAINFALL AND FULLY LEAVED TREES COULD SEE DOWNED WEAK TREES
AND BRANCHES CAUSING POWER OUTAGES. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP
BADGERING THE COASTLINE TODAY CAUSING COASTAL FLOODING
CONCERNS...MORE DETAILS BELOW.
A COOL...RAW DAY WILL BE IN STORE AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT ANY WARM UP CHANCES FOR TODAY. ANTICIPATE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT PUSHING STALLED
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY WASHING IT OUT.
THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE
PRECIP TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN
ALOFT TOMORROW MORNING. LIKE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...THIS
DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SATURDAY HOWEVER LOW LEVELS ARE
QUITE MOIST ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON SATURDAY BUT NOT BY A WHOLE LOT WITH
ANOTHER COOL...RAW DAY IN STORE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID
50S.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING
IN NORTHEAST WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 20-40 MPH. HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS. HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH COAST FOR
TONIGHT AS 925 MB LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
ALLOW FOR MIXING. BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENCE OF THE NE WINDS THERE
COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE SAT HIGH
TIDE...MORE DETAILS BELOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* HURRICANE JOAQUIN LIKELY TO TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO LIMIT
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR SNE
* DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH THU
OVERVIEW...
MAJORITY OF GLOBAL AND TROPICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE
OFFSHORE TRACK FOR JOAQUIN. GGEM TURNS JOAQUIN TO THE NW WITH
LANDFALL ACROSS NC AND THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND TROPICAL MODELS SUGGESTING A LANDFALL IN THE MID ATLC BUT THIS
IS A LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME AS A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE
FAVORS AN OFFSHORE TRACK AS BLOCKING RIDGE DOWNSTREAM WEAKENS.
02/00Z GFS TRENDED WEST AND WHILE STILL OFFSHORE BRINGS HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG WIND TO CAPE/ISLANDS LATE MON/MON NIGHT. ECMWF AND ITS
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH TRACK WELL OFFSHORE AND
MINIMAL IMPACT TO SNE AND UKMET HAS BEEN ON BOARD WITH THIS FOR THE
LAST 3 RUNS. WHILE ODDS FAVOR A MINIMAL IMPACT TO SNE...THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT A LOW PROB FOR SOME RAIN AND WIND
EXISTS FOR SE NEW ENG...PARTICULARLY CAPE/ISLANDS AS WE ARE STILL 96
HOURS AWAY IN THE MODEL WORLD. WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING LATER
MODEL TRENDS. LOOKING BEYOND JOAQUIN DURING NEXT WEEK...PATTERN
SHOWS LOW AMPLITUDE POLAR JET ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS WHICH SUGGESTS
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
DAILIES...
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
PERSISTENT STRONG NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST...THEN WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING SUNDAY AS
GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD. MODELS INDICATE
GOOD MID LEVEL DRYING MOVING IN WHILE LOW LEVELS REMAIN NEARLY
SATURATED SO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. STILL CHILLY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.
MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT...FORECAST DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF JOAQUIN.
OFFSHORE TRACK BECOMING MORE LIKELY WHICH WILL LIMIT WIND AND RAIN
IMPACTS WITH DRY WEATHER...BUT STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT WE WILL
HAVE CHC POPS FOR CAPE/ISLANDS SHOULD JOAQUIN TRACK A BIT LEFT OF
MODEL CONSENSUS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. TREND CONTINUES...MVFR E
OF THE IJD-BED-BVY LINE WITH VFR WEST. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR WITH SOME IFR MIXED IN BY EVENING HOWEVER IT COULD EXPAND TO
INCLUDE CT VALLEY TERMINALS. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY S OF THE MASS PIKE...TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY
SAT MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-35
KTS. HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS.
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING BEFORE TURNING TO MORE DRIZZLE AREA WIDE.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-35KTS.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR STRATUS WITH
AREAS OF DRIZZLE SAT NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR DURING SUN IN THE
INTERIOR. MVFR CIGS PERSISTING NEAR THE COAST. NE GUSTS TO 30 KT
NEAR THE COAST SAT NIGHT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY.
MON...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS GIVEN EXPECTED
OFFSHORE TRACK OF JOAQUIN. LOW PROB OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
CAPE/ISLANDS IF TRACK IS FURTHER WEST.
TUE THROUGH THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS TODAY AND INTO
TOMORROW. HAVE ALLOW CONFIDENCE THAT BOSTON HARBOR WILL SEE GALES
SO HAVE EXTENDED THEIR SCA FOR NOW. NE GUSTS NEAR 30-40 KTS THIS
MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO 40+ KT GUSTS AT TIMES TODAY LASTING
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PERSISENT NW WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO REACH 12-
14 FT AT TIMES ON THE E OCEAN WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NE GALES SAT NIGHT WITH
GUSTS 35-40 KT...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUN.
MON AND MON NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. OFFSHORE TRACK OF JOAQUIN
WILL LIMIT STRONG WIND/SEAS IMPACTS. EXPECT SUB GALE GUSTS. LOW PROB
OF SOME RAIN FOR WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF ACK.
TUE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS DIMINISHING BUT LARGE SWELLS
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TODAY...PERSISTENT NE FLOW MAY CAUSE THE SURGE TO RISE A TAD MORE
AND BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.7 FEET ALONG THE MA E COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THIS ON TOP OF THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE AND WAVES OF 8 TO 12 FEET JUST OFFSHORE MAY CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE REACHES OF THE MA EAST
COAST. A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. ONE CONCERN FOR
NANTUCKET IS DURING HIGH TIDE...THEY COULD RECEIVE AN INCH OF TWO OF
PRECIP WHICH COULD SLOW RECESSION IN WATER LEVELS AS THE TIDE BEGINS
TO GO OUT.
SATURDAY...THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES GRADUALLY LOWERS BUT A
PERSISTENT NE OR E FLOW WILL PRODUCE A SURGE AROUND OR PERHAPS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN 1.5 FEET ALONG THE E COAST. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD STILL SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WITH EROSION BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...IN ADDITION TO THE ARRIVAL OF SWELLS FROM
JOAQUIN MAY SERVE TO INCREASE THE SURGE ALONG SOME S COAST AREAS
ENOUGH FOR THE RISK OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THERE.
HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
JOAQUIN.
DATE / BOSTON HIGHEST TIDE / TIME
FRIDAY OCTOBER 2 / 11.5 FEET / 3:30 PM
SATURDAY OCTOBER 3 / 11.0 FEET / 4:06 PM
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR MAZ020>023.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ024.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ231>237-250-251-
254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ230.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1027 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...BUILDING SEAS/SURF EXPECTED TO START LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH...
.UPDATE...MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS BEGUN
TO SHOW ITS SLOW NORTHWARD TURN AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N/NNE INTO
TONIGHT. 06Z GFS AND OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE PRESENCE OF AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA OFFSHORE FROM E
CENTRAL FL NEAR 999 MBS WHICH IS KEEPING WINDS BACKED TO THE NORTH
NEAR THE COAST. SCATTERED ATLANTIC SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY TOWARD METRO ORLANDO THIS MORNING WITH A
GRADUAL TRANSITION INLAND EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWER
BANDS. UPPER LVL SUPPORT LOOKS ADEQUATE TO RETAIN SLIGHT THUNDER IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.COASTAL...MODERATE SWELLS TO 4 TO 6 FT WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES
TODAY WITH MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AROUND NOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS WHICH WILL BE A HAZARD FOR BEACHGOERS. BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT CONTINUES AND DETAILS MULTIPLE COASTAL HAZARDS. EXPECT
HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO GO INTO EFFECT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LARGE SWELLS INCREASING ON SATURDAY...SAT NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM KDAB VCNTY TO METRO ORLANDO TERMINALS (KSFB-
KMCO) TRANSITION INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER SHRA CHCS FROM KVRB-
KSUA TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...INCREASE IN WINDS TO 12-15 KNOTS AT BUOY 41009 AND SEAS TO
6-7 FT CURRENTLY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF
THE CAPE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OFFSHORE. UPSTREAM WIND REPORTS TO 20-25 KNOTS AT ST AUGUSTINE
/SAUF1/ SO LIKELY SOME WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS OFF THE VOLUSIA COAST
WITH HRRR SHOWING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS IN THIS AREA. WILL GO
AHEAD AND RAISE AN SCA FOR NEAR SHORE ZONES FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
SEBASTIAN INLET WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WORSEN LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASING LARGE EAST SWELL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS AROUND 3.0 FT...
WHICH IS 0.2 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO
HOLD NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
REMAINING IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AS A NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL
LIKELY IMPEDE THE NORMAL NORTHWARD FLOW OF THE RIVER AT TIMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 84 68 83 65 / 50 20 20 20
MCO 87 69 83 67 / 50 20 20 20
MLB 87 70 85 69 / 40 20 20 20
VRB 86 72 84 69 / 40 20 20 20
LEE 85 66 82 67 / 20 20 20 20
SFB 85 68 83 67 / 50 20 20 20
ORL 86 68 84 68 / 50 20 20 20
FPR 87 69 86 67 / 40 10 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.
&&
$$
VOLKMER/BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
621 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
IT LOOKS LIKE SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING ACROSS ERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL BE CARRIED NORTH INTO WRN NEB BY EARLY
AFTN. THIS MOISTURE WILL BECOME FOUNDATION FOR A SLOWLY
PROPAGATING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
THE ECM...RAP AND NAM MODELS APPEAR TO SUPPORT THIS FORECAST AND
QPF TOTALS OF AROUND 1/4 TO PERHAPS 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WITH LESS AMOUNTS WEST. GIVEN THE DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE BELOW 12KFT...THE FCST ONSET OF RAIN HAS BEEN DELAYED A FEW
HOURS. THE RAP MODEL APPEARS TO BE VERY FAST.
HIGHS TODAY RISE TO AROUND 60 WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. THE
RAIN TONIGHT WILL OPERATE ON DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO
PRODUCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
A CHILLY START TO SATURDAY EXPECTED WITH A WARM UP NEXT WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME THUNDER. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
POCKETS OF NEAR ZERO TO NEG LIFTED INDEX PROJECTIONS...WITH
FORECAST TO MENTION ISOLD T. THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WILL LIMIT MIXING AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE
50...AND COULD EASILY SEE SOME SITES HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES DOMINATE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...AS IT DIGS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARM AIR TO GET DRAWN NORTHWARD.
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS
DRYING OUT. LITTLE LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER SO EXPECT GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. THAT SAID...STILL SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS WITH
THE HIGH RH IN THE MID LEVELS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS
OF SPRINKLES. NO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
MONITOR. THE CLOUDS DESPITE WAA WILL LIMIT WARMING TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SUNDAY.
WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION FOR MID WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THE CWA...HOWEVER
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING GREATLY WITH TRACKING OF THIS LOW. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO LIFT THE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE THE EC
CUTS THE LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH SCENARIOS ARE
PLAUSIBLE DUE TO THE BLOCKY RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WITH
THIS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WILL LIMIT CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
THE AREA OF MVFR CIGS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AND THEN MOVE EAST
TONIGHT...LOWERING TO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1008 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY, CLOUDY, AND COOL TODAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS RAIN MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA. RAIN MOVES BACK OUT
LATE SATURDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS
FEATURE, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK. HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAY OR MAY NOT
IMPACT THE GENERAL REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE
FORECAST TRACK FOR THAT SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, RECENT TRENDS
ARE FAVORING THAT THE STORM AND ITS IMPACTS, WILL BE EAST OF OUR
AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1010 AM UPDATE...
BROUGHT MAX TEMPERATURES MORE IN LINE WITH THE COOLER SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE, AS THICK CLOUD COVER IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND THIS MORNING.
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS FIELDS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.
330 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDY AND DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS ALONG THE
EAST COAST. AN AREA OF RAIN OVER MARYLAND AND DELAWARE WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO THE POCONOS THIS EVENING. THIS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALOFT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. RAIN MAY COME IN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH HRRR ONE OF THE FASTEST WITH MOST OTHERS WAITING
UNTIL EVENING.
WITH CLOUDS AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO
THE UPPER 50S. WARMEST IN SYRACUSE AWAY FROM THE THICKER AND
LOWER CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
IN GENERAL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST OR THE MODELS. RAIN
COMES IN TONIGHT AND LASTS INTO SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
NE PA. LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO SO SYRACUSE AND
ROME PROBABLY WILL GET NOTHING. RAINFALL TOTALS LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH IN THE FAR SOUTH OF NE PA.
RAIN PULLS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE SW. THIS RAIN
WELL AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE IN THE BAHAMAS AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE US. TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING FUNNELED NW INTO
AREA BUT BEING STOPPED BY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER SE CANADA.
DRY MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. UL LOW OVER SE US
MOVES OFF THE COAST WHILE HURRICANE REMAINS AHEAD OF IT TRACKING
SLOWLY NE. WARM SOME BUT STILL COOL WITH MORE SUN SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 AM FRIDAY UPDATE... THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CONSENSUS IS TO TAKE THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD, WELL
OFFSHORE, ON MONDAY, THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THEREAFTER. ANY LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL TO START THIS PERIOD
SHOULD REMAIN EITHER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, OR PERHAPS
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN ANY EVENT, PROBABILITIES ARE
DECREASING WITH TIME THAT WE`LL SEE MUCH, IF ANY, ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA ON MONDAY.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS RAIN-FREE, WITH SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST, AND A DRY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
OCTOBER, WITH DAILY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS KAVP LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY, WHEN MVFR
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS, WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT
BY MIDDAY, WITH SOME 20-25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY KAVP,
KBGM, AND KELM.
.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM LOWER
CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
630 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY, CLOUDY, AND COOL TODAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS RAIN MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA. RAIN MOVES BACK OUT
LATE SATURDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS
FEATURE, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK. HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAY OR MAY NOT
IMPACT THE GENERAL REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE
FORECAST TRACK FOR THAT SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, RECENT TRENDS
ARE FAVORING THAT THE STORM AND ITS IMPACTS, WILL BE EAST OF OUR
AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDY AND DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS ALONG THE
EAST COAST. AN AREA OF RAIN OVER MARYLAND AND DELAWARE WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO THE POCONOS THIS EVENING. THIS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALOFT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. RAIN MAY COME IN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH HRRR ONE OF THE FASTEST WITH MOST OTHERS WAITING
UNTIL EVENING.
WITH CLOUDS AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO
THE UPPER 50S. WARMEST IN SYRACUSE AWAY FROM THE THICKER AND
LOWER CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
IN GENERAL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST OR THE MODELS. RAIN
COMES IN TONIGHT AND LASTS INTO SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
NE PA. LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO SO SYRACUSE AND
ROME PROBABLY WILL GET NOTHING. RAINFALL TOTALS LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH IN THE FAR SOUTH OF NE PA.
RAIN PULLS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE SW. THIS RAIN
WELL AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE IN THE BAHAMAS AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE US. TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING FUNNELED NW INTO
AREA BUT BEING STOPPED BY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER SE CANADA.
DRY MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. UL LOW OVER SE US
MOVES OFF THE COAST WHILE HURRICANE REMAINS AHEAD OF IT TRACKING
SLOWLY NE. WARM SOME BUT STILL COOL WITH MORE SUN SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 AM FRIDAY UPDATE... THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CONSENSUS IS TO TAKE THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD, WELL
OFFSHORE, ON MONDAY, THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THEREAFTER. ANY LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL TO START THIS PERIOD
SHOULD REMAIN EITHER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, OR PERHAPS
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN ANY EVENT, PROBABILITIES ARE
DECREASING WITH TIME THAT WE`LL SEE MUCH, IF ANY, ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA ON MONDAY.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS RAIN-FREE, WITH SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST, AND A DRY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
OCTOBER, WITH DAILY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS KAVP LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY, WHEN MVFR
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS, WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT
BY MIDDAY, WITH SOME 20-25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY KAVP,
KBGM, AND KELM.
.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM LOWER
CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
628 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY, CLOUDY, AND COOL TODAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS RAIN MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA. RAIN MOVES BACK OUT
LATE SATURDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS
FEATURE, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK. HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAY OR MAY NOT
IMPACT THE GENERAL REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE
FORECAST TRACK FOR THAT SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, RECENT TRENDS
ARE FAVORING THAT THE STORM AND ITS IMPACTS, WILL BE EAST OF OUR
AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDY AND DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS ALONG THE
EAST COAST. AN AREA OF RAIN OVER MARYLAND AND DELAWARE WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO THE POCONOS THIS EVENING. THIS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALOFT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. RAIN MAY COME IN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH HRRR ONE OF THE FASTEST WITH MOST OTHERS WAITING
UNTIL EVENING.
WITH CLOUDS AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO
THE UPPER 50S. WARMEST IN SYRACUSE AWAY FROM THE THICKER AND
LOWER CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
IN GENERAL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST OR THE MODELS. RAIN
COMES IN TONIGHT AND LASTS INTO SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
NE PA. LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO SO SYRACUSE AND
ROME PROBABLY WILL GET NOTHING. RAINFALL TOTALS LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH IN THE FAR SOUTH OF NE PA.
RAIN PULLS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE SW. THIS RAIN
WELL AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE IN THE BAHAMAS AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE US. TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING FUNNELED NW INTO
AREA BUT BEING STOPPED BY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER SE CANADA.
DRY MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. UL LOW OVER SE US
MOVES OFF THE COAST WHILE HURRICANE REMAINS AHEAD OF IT TRACKING
SLOWLY NE. WARM SOME BUT STILL COOL WITH MORE SUN SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 AM FRIDAY UPDATE... THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE CONSENSUS IS TAKE THIS SYSTEM NORTHWARD, WELL
OFFSHORE, ON MONDAY, THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC
THEREAFTER. ANY LINGERING HEAVY RAINFALL TO START THIS PERIOD
SHOULD REMAIN EITHER NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, OR PERHAPS
BRUSHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN ANY EVENT, PROBABILITIES ARE
DECREASING WITH TIME THAT WE`LL SEE MUCH, IF ANY, ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA ON MONDAY.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS RAIN-FREE, WITH SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST, AND A DRY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
OCTOBER, WITH DAILY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, FOR THE MOST PART. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS KAVP LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY, WHEN MVFR
CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS, WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT
BY MIDDAY, WITH SOME 20-25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY KAVP,
KBGM, AND KELM.
.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM LOWER
CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1039 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONT OFF THE
COAST WILL MOVE INLAND LATE TODAY. MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN...
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL HELP TO
WRAP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND WILL BRING FLOODING
RAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT...
BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...THE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS ONGOING
FOR THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR COUNTIES WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY EXCEEDING 6 INCHES IN SPOTS. A REPORT OF 5.32 INCHES WAS RECEIVED
EARLIER THIS MORNING FROM CALABASH IN BRUNSWICK COUNTY. A STREAMER
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS EXTENDS SOUTH OF
JACKSONVILLE NC AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
SHIFTING GRADUALLY WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH FLOOD POTENTIAL
EXISTS WITH THIS BAND OF PRECIP SINCE THE GROUND IS NOW SATURATED
AND VIRTUALLY ALL ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS BEING TURNED STRAIGHT INTO
RUNOFF. A BROAD SATELLITE VIEW SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT
PART OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN...THE MOISTURE PLUME IS CONNECTED TO THE
STORM AND IS BEING FUNNELED NORTHWARD BY MID-LEVEL WINDS AND THE
SLOW-MOVING FRONT OFFSHORE.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA IS MUCH SPOTTIER.
RAIN IS ENTIRELY ABSENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR PEE DEE REGION DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WHAT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN A WEAK GRAVITY WAVE ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD EARLIER...PLUS MODEL
INDICATIONS OF A LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
MORNING...BUT LIFT THROUGH NON-SATURATED AIR CANNOT PRODUCE
PRECIP.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY LOOK FOR THE BAND OF SUBSTANTIAL RAIN
TO SHIFT WESTWARD...REACHING THE NOW-DRY REGIONS OF THE SC PEE DEE
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FROM NOW THROUGH SUNSET
EXPECT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE COASTAL CAPE FEAR
AREA...WITH TOTALS POSSIBLY REACHING HALF AN INCH ACROSS PARTS OF
THE PEE DEE REGION. AS THE FRONT REACHES THE BEACHES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON LOW-LEVEL HELICITY AND INCREASING SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. TONIGHT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
RAIN SHOULD SHIFT INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AS BACKING MID- LEVEL WINDS
SHIFT THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME INLAND FROM THE COAST. IN FACT IT`S
AMAZING HOW MUCH DRY AIR GETS INTO THE COLUMN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE CAPE FEAR AREA.
FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO HIGH TEMP FORECASTS TODAY...STILL
ANTICIPATED TO REACH 70-74 AT THE BEACHES LATE IN THE DAY. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL HARDLY BUDGE AS DENSE CLOUDS AND EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING KEEP READINGS STUCK IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING.
STRONG ON SHORE PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY AS JOAQUIN MAKES PROGRESS
NORTH WELL OFF SHORE AND UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS THE FLA/GA GULF
COAST AREA. THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
TIGHTENS UP WITH BEST ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THROUGH GA/SC. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH ON SHORE AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-NW TO E-SE
WITH MAX LIFT AND CONVERGENCE RUNNING UP THROUGH GA/SC BORDER
FROM LOW OFF SHORE BY SAT EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH ON SHORE BEHIND THIS FRONT SPREADING OVER NC INTO NE SC FROM
THE E-NE. THE AXIS OF THE GREATEST PCP WATER OVER 2 INCHES WILL
SHIFT FROM MORE N-S TO NW-SE THROUGH SAT WITH PCP WATER VALUES
DROPPING DOWN TO 1.5 INCHES OVER CAPE FEAR COAST IN STRONG
EASTERLY PUSH. THEREFORE EXPECT A LULL IN THE HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTING SOUTH...BUT THIS WILL BE THE
TIME WHEN MAX ON SHORE WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS UP AND PRODUCE WORST
COASTAL EFFECTS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PERIOD OF
HIGH TIDES EARLY AFTN SAT.
JOAQUIN SHOULD PASS OVER 400 MILES TO THE EAST OF COASTAL
CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS AN EASTWARD TREND HAS
BEEN SEEN WITH NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST OF THIS MAJOR HURRICANE.
ONCE IT MOVES FARTHER NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
E-NE WITH A STRONG MOISTURE CONNECTION TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
BE WRAPPING AROUND MOVING SLOWLY EAST OFF THE FLA/GA COAST. THIS
WILL PULL THE AXIS OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH AND
WILL PUT THE HEAVIEST PCP POTENTIAL BACK OVER LOCAL FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. PCP AMOUNTS THRU
THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY RUN 3 TO 7 INCHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LINGERING PCP WILL TAPER OFF AS AS UPPER
LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE MON. DRY AIR WILL
FLOW INTO THE AREA IN N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK END. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. SUNSHINE WILL BE BACK FINALLY BY TUES WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE FALL LIKE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MOISTURE STILL STREAMING ONSHORE. THE HRRR KEEPS ILM IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOST OF THE MORNING. THINK THIS IS A GOOD BET
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR. CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY IFR IN
THIS AREA...WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR. THE MYRTLES ARE ONLY SEEING LIGHT
RAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD FILL IN THERE IN A COUPLE
OF HOURS. THE WINDS OVERNIGHT WERE A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST...AND
HAVE KEPT THEM UP TODAY. LOOK FOR FAIRLY STEADY RAIN AT LBT WITH
PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE EAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...WITH MVFR/TEMPO
IFR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW-NE MONDAY WITH
VFR TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
OUTER BANKS TO ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR AND CAPE
ROMAIN SHOULD PUSH WESTWARD TODAY. WHILE THIS SLOW MOVEMENT WILL
MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALL DAY FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA
BEACHES...WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE EAST NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE
FEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE BULK OF
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z CANADIAN WERE
NOT USED DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE FRONTAL POSITION.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ACTUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS...SETTLING IN THE 15 KNOT RANGE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER STRONGER EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAIN TIGHTENS.
A STREAMER OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF CAPE FEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...
BRINGING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS INTO PLAY. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCED WIND SHEAR AND GREATER
INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS. ANY MARINERS BRAVING THE CONDITIONS
TODAY WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE WEATHER.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE CONDITIONS.
THE SETUP OF THE ESE GROUND SWELL FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS
WILL NOW GET SUPPLEMENTED WITH JOAQUIN GENERATED SWELL THROUGHOUT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...LOOKING AT THE ADDITION OF
SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES ON TOP OF THESE SWELLS...WITH NE-E
WINDS BASICALLY RUNNING 15 TO 30 KT THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT. THE HIGHER RANGE OF THESE SUSTAINED AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...DURING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS IS AT THE TIME WHEN THE
GRADIENT FLOW WILL BECOME FURTHER TIGHTENED AS JOAQUIN MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ILM COASTAL WATERS...SOME 400 MILES EAST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE OFF SHORE WATERS. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG E-NE WINDS. OVERALL...LOOKING AT
SIGNIFICANT SEAS BUILDING TO THE 7 TO 13 FOOT LEVELS BY SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LATEST FORECAST SHOWS UP TO 13 TO 14 FT SEAS IN THE
OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAKES
ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL START OUT 8 TO 14 FT AS
STRONG AND LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS IMPACT THE WATERS OFF OF CAPE
FEAR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
THE NORTH MONDAY INTO TUES AS JOAQUIN AND UPPER LOW LIFT FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL
STILL REQUIRE ADVISORIES OVER THE WATERS INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN TIDE VALUES ALONG THE
SHORELINE OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
EXCEEDING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS...NECESSITATING ISSUANCE
OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THRESHOLDS WILL ALSO BE MET ALONG THE
WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCZ054-056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...III
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1015 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY AND FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
FORECAST OF RAIN FOR EVERYONE (HEAVIER EAST AND LIGHTER WEST
INITIALLY... SHIFTING TO HEAVIER WEST LATER TODAY) AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE NE STILL LOOK GOOD... BUT SHORT TERM TRENDS REGARDING
AREAS OF PRIME HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE BEING MONITORED. HEAVIEST RAIN
IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA... WITH ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE WRN AND SW PIEDMONT ATTM. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
ABOUT THE EVENTUAL FATE OF HEAVY RAIN STREAMING JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA... OVER COASTAL NC AND ADJACENT AREAS JUST INLAND...
WHICH WE`VE BEEN EXPECTING TO PIVOT WESTWARD AND TRACK THROUGH
CENTRAL NC TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MESO LOW NOW TRACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN HAS IN ITS WAKE SOME WEAK RELATIVE
SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN RAINFALL INTENSITY TO ITS SOUTH
IN RECENT HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR HINTS AT THIS BUT ALSO SHOWS
RAINFALL FILLING BACK IN TO OUR SOUTH BETWEEN MYR AND CHS HEADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... SO FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE
RELATIVE LULL WILL BE TEMPORARY... AS THE INTENSE UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND HIGH WATER CONTENT WITH DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PROMPT
CONTINUED RAIN DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR TAKES THIS STREAM OF WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TOWARD THE WNW AND THROUGH CENTRAL NC BETWEEN
1 PM AND 8 PM... WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH OUR PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
REGARDING THE TIME OF GREATEST HEAVY RAIN RISK. WIND ADVISORY IS
LEFT AS IS... WITH THE WET SOIL AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING ROOT
STRUCTURES ALREADY CAUSING THE DOWNING OF NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IN THE LAST 12 HRS. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE WELL BELOW
TYPICAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA... HOWEVER FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30-40
MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 AM:
OVERVIEW: AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STALL IN VICINITY OF THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT...AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN
TRACKS SLOWLY NW/N THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST (FROM THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL LOW) INTO THE CAROLINAS...MID-LEVEL (700-500 MB) WARM
ADVECTION...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEP /TROPICAL/ MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5" (WEST) TO 2.2" (EAST)
ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN OBSERVED OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING.
TODAY/TONIGHT: EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TODAY AS 925-850 MB FLOW BACKS/STRENGTHENS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST (IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING SSE TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE)...RESULTING IN STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION /ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION/ ATOP A
PRONOUNCED CAD WEDGE AS H85 DEWPOINTS RISE TO 16-18C AND PWAT VALUES
INCREASE TO 2.00-2.25". THE HIGHEST PRECIP RATES WILL BE FOUND IN
POCKETS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER WARM
CONVEYER-BELT PRECIPITATION ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
FLOODING: 2-4" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 12Z SAT. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
WILL FALL WEST OF HWY 1 OVER THE MORE VARIED TOPOGRAPHY OF THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST.
WIND: MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 25-35 KT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN A
SHALLOW (2000 FT AGL) MIXED LAYER ATTENDANT STEEP SFC-900 MB LAPSE
RATES ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION AT THE BASE OF THE CAD WEDGE.
OCCASIONAL NORTHEAST GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFT/EVE WHEN INTENSE PRECIP
LOADING ASSOC/W ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY ALLOW DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT OF STRONGER FLOW /35-45 KT/ ATTENDANT A LOW-LEVEL SPEED
MAX PROGGED NEAR THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT ~900 MB. GIVEN
SATURATED SOIL AND HEAVY RAIN...DOWNED TREES AND SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. INDEED...REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED IN THE TRIAD AREA AND PORTIONS OF
THE TRIANGLE. WITH THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES BECOMING
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS THIS AFT/EVE...
DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THE
ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...
THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SHIFT WEST/SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC
ON SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS IN VICINITY OF NORTHERN FL /
SOUTHERN GA...WITH LIGHT RAIN GIVING WAY TO OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES/
DRIZZLE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...AND PERHAPS ISOLD CONVECTION
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS A PERSISTENT (AND STRENGTHENING)
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS A TROPICAL ATLANTIC AIRMASS
INLAND...ERODING THE CAD WEDGE FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE DAY. AS
IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH REGARD
TO THE EVOLUTION OF CAD EROSION ON SAT...AND THUS TEMPERATURES...
CLOUD COVER...AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALSO REMAIN UNCERTAIN. WILL MAKE RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM FRIDAY...
THE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL LIKELY
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AS THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
INDICATE INTENSE BANDING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN A WEST TO EAST AXIS
ACROSS NE GEORGIA... SC... AND FAR SOUTHERN NC SUNDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WOBBLE SLOWLY SE ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. EVEN IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN/QPF FALL ACROSS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY... THE LATEST EUROPEAN WITH OTHER MODEL SUPPORT... FORECAST
THE UPPER LOW TO BEGIN TO MOVE NE ALONG THE SC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THIS WOULD SPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION (WITH A CONTINUED FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY). AT THIS POINT...
WE WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER SUNDAY... EXPECT A LOW OVERCAST AND PERIODS OF RAIN
ALL ZONES... WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT... SOUTHERN PIEDMONT... SANDHILLS... AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. QPF OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE FORECAST SOUTH... WITH LOCALLY 4
INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER REGION. QPF TO THE NORTH
SHOULD BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.50. IN ADDITION WE WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG NE FETCH WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS 20-30 MPH. HIGHS
SUNDAY GENERALLY MID 60S TO MID 70S NW TO SE.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY SPREAD BACK INLAND OVER NC SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. IF SO... THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO
MONDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POP AND INCREASE QPF TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL. LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS 65-72 MONDAY.
THEN FINALLY BY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY... TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE
THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES EJECT THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE NHC TRACK OF JOAQUIN WELL OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC SUPPORT CLEARING AND MILDER WEATHER BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 725 AM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD:
CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
TROPICAL MOISTURE ATOP A WEDGE OF COOL STABLE AIR IN PLACE OVER
CENTRAL NC. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...WHICH WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. SUSTAINED NELY WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30KT RANGE.
LONG TERM: UPPER LOW WILL CUT-OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL LIKELY SHIFT
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CEILINGS WITH
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 250 AM FRIDAY...
THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY MONDAY (PER LATEST FAVORED EUROPEAN SOLUTION).
THE HIGHEST RISK OF FLOODING APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
TODAY... THEN SHIFT TO OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TWO DAY QPF OF 2-4 INCHES EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST... WITH
4-6 INCHES WEST AND SOUTH. THEN SUNDAY... THE HIGHEST FLASH FLOOD
THREAT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE ADDITIONAL 2-3
INCHES MAY FALL.
THEN THE LATEST EUROPEAN BRINGS HEAVY RAIN BACK TO THE ENTIRE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY QPF. NEEDLESS TO
SAY... A LONG DURATION FLASH FLOOD THREAT POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...CBL
HYDROLOGY...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
737 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED OFF THE COAST. MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN...CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS IT PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS. NONETHELESS...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL HELP
TO WRAP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MAY BRING
FLOODING RAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM UP FROM
THE SOUTH BUT RAINFALL OVER SOUTH CAROLINA HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED.
THIS APPEARS TO BE DOWN TO A DECREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN
THESE AREAS. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE ISENTROPIC LIFT RETURNING TO
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
STALLED OFFSHORE TRIES TO MOVE INLAND. INITIALLY PROGRESS WILL BE
SLOW AND THE FRONT MAY NOT MOVE VERY FAR INLAND FROM THE COAST
UNTIL LATE EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TODAY WILL BE AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WET DAY BUT IT MAY END UP DOING SO IN TWO PHASES.
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES WILL
BE MORE FAVORED BUT THEN AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS FARTHER
SOUTH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL SHIFT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING.
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PLUME OF DEEP GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. ALSO PRESENT IS A STALLED COLD FRONT...JUST OFF THE
COAST. THE FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAVE
TAPPED INTO THE STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS BUT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THINGS GET INTERESTING. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS 2 AREAS OF DRY AIR THAT MAY WORK TO CUTOFF OR AT LEAST
SEVERELY IMPEDE THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE.
ONE BATCH OF DRY AIR IS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE DIGGING
UPPER LOW NEAR THE AL/MS BORDER AND THE OTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE EDGE OF JOAQUIN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE TROPICAL CONNECTION BECOMING CONSTRICTED BUT NOT
COMPLETELY SEVERED. THEN LATER TODAY...AS THE 5H TROUGH/LOW DIGS AND
STARTS TO GAIN SOME NEGATIVE TILT...JOAQUIN IS LIFTED NORTH AND THE
NARROW BAND OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO SOUTHERN SC AND GA...AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE. THIS IS WHEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC.
PWATS DROP FROM AROUND 2.3 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON TO CLOSE TO 1.2
INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A MEASURE OF
MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SC WITH PWATS DROPPING
FROM AROUND 2.3 INCHES LATER TODAY TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES AS THE
PERIOD ENDS. WEAKENING ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH DECREASING DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE IS LIKELY TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH WARRANT
CONTINUATION OF POP IN THE LIKELY AND ABOVE RANGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BELOW CLIMO BUT HELP KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL
BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING.
STRONG ON SHORE PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY AS JOAQUIN MAKES PROGRESS
NORTH WELL OFF SHORE AND UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS THE FLA/GA GULF
COAST AREA. THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
TIGHTENS UP WITH BEST ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THROUGH GA/SC. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH ON SHORE AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-NW TO E-SE
WITH MAX LIFT AND CONVERGENCE RUNNING UP THROUGH GA/SC BORDER
FROM LOW OFF SHORE BY SAT EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH ON SHORE BEHIND THIS FRONT SPREADING OVER NC INTO NE SC FROM
THE E-NE. THE AXIS OF THE GREATEST PCP WATER OVER 2 INCHES WILL
SHIFT FROM MORE N-S TO NW-SE THROUGH SAT WITH PCP WATER VALUES
DROPPING DOWN TO 1.5 INCHES OVER CAPE FEAR COAST IN STRONG
EASTERLY PUSH. THEREFORE EXPECT A LULL IN THE HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTING SOUTH...BUT THIS WILL BE THE
TIME WHEN MAX ON SHORE WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS UP AND PRODUCE WORST
COASTAL EFFECTS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PERIOD OF
HIGH TIDES EARLY AFTN SAT.
JOAQUIN SHOULD PASS OVER 400 MILES TO THE EAST OF COASTAL
CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS AN EASTWARD TREND HAS
BEEN SEEN WITH NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST OF THIS MAJOR HURRICANE.
ONCE IT MOVES FARTHER NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
E-NE WITH A STRONG MOISTURE CONNECTION TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
BE WRAPPING AROUND MOVING SLOWLY EAST OFF THE FLA/GA COAST. THIS
WILL PULL THE AXIS OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH AND
WILL PUT THE HEAVIEST PCP POTENTIAL BACK OVER LOCAL FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. PCP AMOUNTS THRU
THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY RUN 3 TO 7 INCHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LINGERING PCP WILL TAPER OFF AS AS UPPER
LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE MON. DRY AIR WILL
FLOW INTO THE AREA IN N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK END. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. SUNSHINE WILL BE BACK FINALLY BY TUES WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE FALL LIKE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MOISTURE STILL STREAMING ONSHORE. THE HRRR KEEPS ILM IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOST OF THE MORNING. THINK THIS IS A GOOD BET
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR. CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY IFR IN
THIS AREA...WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR. THE MYRTLES ARE ONLY SEEING LIGHT
RAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD FILL IN THERE IN A COUPLE
OF HOURS. THE WINDS OVERNIGHT WERE A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST...AND
HAVE KEPT THEM UP TODAY. LOOK FOR FAIRLY STEADY RAIN AT LBT WITH
PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE EAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...WITH MVFR/TEMPO
IFR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW-NE MONDAY WITH
VFR TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE THINKING FOR
MARINE AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED EAST OF THE WATERS IS
CURRENTLY MAINTAINING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY TODAY...VEERING WINDS FROM
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WILL
BRIEFLY RELAX TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 25 KT SUSTAINED BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS ALREADY RUNNING 5 TO 7 FT
WILL EXCEED 10 FT IN SOME AREAS LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE CONDITIONS.
THE SETUP OF THE ESE GROUND SWELL FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS
WILL NOW GET SUPPLEMENTED WITH JOAQUIN GENERATED SWELL THROUGHOUT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...LOOKING AT THE ADDITION OF
SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES ON TOP OF THESE SWELLS...WITH NE-E
WINDS BASICALLY RUNNING 15 TO 30 KT THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT. THE HIGHER RANGE OF THESE SUSTAINED AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...DURING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS IS AT THE TIME WHEN THE
GRADIENT FLOW WILL BECOME FURTHER TIGHTENED AS JOAQUIN MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ILM COASTAL WATERS...SOME 400 MILES EAST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE OFF SHORE WATERS. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG E-NE WINDS. OVERALL...LOOKING AT
SIGNIFICANT SEAS BUILDING TO THE 7 TO 13 FOOT LEVELS BY SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LATEST FORECAST SHOWS UP TO 13 TO 14 FT SEAS IN THE
OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAKES
ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL START OUT 8 TO 14 FT AS
STRONG AND LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS IMPACT THE WATERS OFF OF CAPE
FEAR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
THE NORTH MONDAY INTO TUES AS JOAQUIN AND UPPER LOW LIFT FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL
STILL REQUIRE ADVISORIES OVER THE WATERS INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN TIDE VALUES ALONG THE
SHORELINE OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
EXCEEDING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS...NECESSITATING ISSUANCE
OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THRESHOLDS WILL ALSO BE MET ALONG THE
WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCZ054-056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...III
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
620 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONT WILL
REMAIN STALLED OFF THE COAST. MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN...CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN DURING THE WEEKEND AS IT PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS. NONETHELESS...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL HELP
TO WRAP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MAY BRING
FLOODING RAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PLUME OF DEEP GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. ALSO PRESENT IS A STALLED COLD FRONT...JUST OFF THE COAST.
THE FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAVE TAPPED INTO
THE STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS BUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING THINGS GET INTERESTING. WATER VAPOR SHOWS 2 AREAS
OF DRY AIR THAT MAY WORK TO CUTOFF OR AT LEAST SEVERELY IMPEDE THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE.
ONE BATCH OF DRY AIR IS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE DIGGING
UPPER LOW NEAR THE AL/MS BORDER AND THE OTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE EDGE OF JOAQUIN. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE TROPICAL CONNECTION BECOMING CONSTRICTED BUT NOT
COMPLETELY SEVERED. THEN LATER TODAY...AS THE 5H TROUGH/LOW DIGS AND
STARTS TO GAIN SOME NEGATIVE TILT...JOAQUIN IS LIFTED NORTH AND THE
NARROW BAND OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS
SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...INTO SOUTHERN SC AND GA...AS THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ONSHORE. THIS IS WHEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
THE ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NC.
PWATS DROP FROM AROUND 2.3 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON TO CLOSE TO 1.2
INCHES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A MEASURE OF
MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST SC WITH PWATS DROPPING
FROM AROUND 2.3 INCHES LATER TODAY TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES AS THE
PERIOD ENDS. WEAKENING ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH DECREASING DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE IS LIKELY TO BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WHICH WARRANT
CONTINUATION OF POP IN THE LIKELY AND ABOVE RANGE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
BELOW CLIMO BUT HELP KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL
BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING.
STRONG ON SHORE PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY AS JOAQUIN MAKES PROGRESS
NORTH WELL OFF SHORE AND UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS THE FLA/GA GULF
COAST AREA. THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
TIGHTENS UP WITH BEST ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND THROUGH GA/SC. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH ON SHORE AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE W-NW TO E-SE
WITH MAX LIFT AND CONVERGENCE RUNNING UP THROUGH GA/SC BORDER
FROM LOW OFF SHORE BY SAT EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH ON SHORE BEHIND THIS FRONT SPREADING OVER NC INTO NE SC FROM
THE E-NE. THE AXIS OF THE GREATEST PCP WATER OVER 2 INCHES WILL
SHIFT FROM MORE N-S TO NW-SE THROUGH SAT WITH PCP WATER VALUES
DROPPING DOWN TO 1.5 INCHES OVER CAPE FEAR COAST IN STRONG
EASTERLY PUSH. THEREFORE EXPECT A LULL IN THE HEAVIER RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTING SOUTH...BUT THIS WILL BE THE
TIME WHEN MAX ON SHORE WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS UP AND PRODUCE WORST
COASTAL EFFECTS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PERIOD OF
HIGH TIDES EARLY AFTN SAT.
JOAQUIN SHOULD PASS OVER 400 MILES TO THE EAST OF COASTAL
CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS AN EASTWARD TREND HAS
BEEN SEEN WITH NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST OF THIS MAJOR HURRICANE.
ONCE IT MOVES FARTHER NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
E-NE WITH A STRONG MOISTURE CONNECTION TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
BE WRAPPING AROUND MOVING SLOWLY EAST OFF THE FLA/GA COAST. THIS
WILL PULL THE AXIS OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE BACK TO THE NORTH AND
WILL PUT THE HEAVIEST PCP POTENTIAL BACK OVER LOCAL FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. PCP AMOUNTS THRU
THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY RUN 3 TO 7 INCHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...LINGERING PCP WILL TAPER OFF AS AS UPPER
LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE MON. DRY AIR WILL
FLOW INTO THE AREA IN N-NW WINDS ON THE BACK END. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH. SUNSHINE WILL BE BACK FINALLY BY TUES WITH DRY AND
SEASONABLE FALL LIKE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...MOISTURE STILL STREAMING ONSHORE. THE HRRR KEEPS ILM IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOST OF THE MORNING. THINK THIS IS A GOOD BET
BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR. CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY IFR IN
THIS AREA...WITH BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR. THE MYRTLES ARE ONLY SEEING LIGHT
RAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD FILL IN THERE IN A COUPLE
OF HOURS. THE WINDS OVERNIGHT WERE A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST...AND
HAVE KEPT THEM UP TODAY. LOOK FOR FAIRLY STEADY RAIN AT LBT WITH
PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE EAST.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...WITH MVFR/TEMPO
IFR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW-NE MONDAY WITH
VFR TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED EAST OF THE WATERS IS
CURRENTLY MAINTAINING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE DAY TODAY...VEERING WINDS FROM
NORTH-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WILL
BRIEFLY RELAX TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 25 KT SUSTAINED BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS ALREADY RUNNING 5 TO 7 FT
WILL EXCEED 10 FT IN SOME AREAS LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE
PERIOD...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE CONDITIONS.
THE SETUP OF THE ESE GROUND SWELL FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS
WILL NOW GET SUPPLEMENTED WITH JOAQUIN GENERATED SWELL THROUGHOUT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...LOOKING AT THE ADDITION OF
SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN WAVES ON TOP OF THESE SWELLS...WITH NE-E
WINDS BASICALLY RUNNING 15 TO 30 KT THRU THE PERIOD WITH HIGHER
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT. THE HIGHER RANGE OF THESE SUSTAINED AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...DURING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS IS AT THE TIME WHEN THE
GRADIENT FLOW WILL BECOME FURTHER TIGHTENED AS JOAQUIN MAKES ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ILM COASTAL WATERS...SOME 400 MILES EAST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE OFF SHORE WATERS. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG E-NE WINDS. OVERALL...LOOKING AT
SIGNIFICANT SEAS BUILDING TO THE 7 TO 13 FOOT LEVELS BY SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. LATEST FORECAST SHOWS UP TO 13 TO 14 FT SEAS IN THE
OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAKES
ITS WAY NORTHWARD. SEAS ON SUNDAY WILL START OUT 8 TO 14 FT AS
STRONG AND LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS IMPACT THE WATERS OFF OF CAPE
FEAR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
THE NORTH MONDAY INTO TUES AS JOAQUIN AND UPPER LOW LIFT FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL
STILL REQUIRE ADVISORIES OVER THE WATERS INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN ZONES.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...COMBINATION OF TIDAL ANOMALIES AND DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL RESULT IN TIDE VALUES ALONG THE
SHORELINE OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
EXCEEDING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS...NECESSITATING ISSUANCE
OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THRESHOLDS WILL ALSO BE MET ALONG THE
WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT AND AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-
039-053>056.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ054-056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...III
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
854 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
LIGHTNING DATA NETWORK SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA
WITH THE APPROACHING LINE. WILL ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER 17Z. UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
A VORT LOBE IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. A STRONGER LOBE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UTILIZED LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS WITH A COMBINATION OF
TIME LAGGED HRRR AND PREVIOUS FORECAST TO UPDATE POPS THROUGH
TODAY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
ALSO NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
TODAY...STRONGEST SOUTHWEST...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAINLY WEST.
CURRENTLY...LEAD S/WV IMPULSE COUPLED WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE PAST
DAYBREAK.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION OF EASTERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH REMAINS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE
WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT AND BE
CONFINED MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND BEST OVERALL FORCING ACROSS THE
WEST. THE BULK OF QPF IS DEPICTED TO REMAIN OVER WYOMING AND
MONTANA NEAR THE SFC LOW/TROUGH.
CLOUD COVER AND A COOLING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL SEE HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON HOVERING BETWEEN 55 AND 65F DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEST AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS INTO EASTERN
MONTANA ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THE STRONG HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE MUCH DRIER...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP OFF
QUICKLY AS YOU GET EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE ONTARIO HIGH AND NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
WINDY AS FRIDAY AND WIND HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON SUNDAY...AND ONE
LAST SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THUS BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. INTO THE PLAINS STATES AROUND MID-WEEK. CURRENTLY THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE
SUPERBLEND CURRENTLY MANIFESTS THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WE WARM
SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
SHOWERS...BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
MENTION IN ANY ONE TAF. SCT CLOUDS EAST WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS
WEST ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD BASES LOOK TO
REMAIN AROUND 4-5K FT AGL WEST. STRONG SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED AREA WIDE ON FRIDAY. GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KBIS/KJMS/KMOT/KISN...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE AT KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
649 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
A VORT LOBE IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. A STRONGER LOBE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UTILIZED LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS WITH A COMBINATION OF
TIME LAGGED HRRR AND PREVIOUS FORECAST TO UPDATE POPS THROUGH
TODAY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
ALSO NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
TODAY...STRONGEST SOUTHWEST...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAINLY WEST.
CURRENTLY...LEAD S/WV IMPULSE COUPLED WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE PAST
DAYBREAK.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION OF EASTERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH REMAINS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE
WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT AND BE
CONFINED MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND BEST OVERALL FORCING ACROSS THE
WEST. THE BULK OF QPF IS DEPICTED TO REMAIN OVER WYOMING AND
MONTANA NEAR THE SFC LOW/TROUGH.
CLOUD COVER AND A COOLING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL SEE HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON HOVERING BETWEEN 55 AND 65F DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEST AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS INTO EASTERN
MONTANA ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THE STRONG HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE MUCH DRIER...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP OFF
QUICKLY AS YOU GET EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE ONTARIO HIGH AND NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
WINDY AS FRIDAY AND WIND HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON SUNDAY...AND ONE
LAST SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THUS BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. INTO THE PLAINS STATES AROUND MID-WEEK. CURRENTLY THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE
SUPERBLEND CURRENTLY MANIFESTS THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WE WARM
SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN
SHOWERS...BUT COVERAGE NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO
MENTION IN ANY ONE TAF. SCT CLOUDS EAST WITH BKN-OVC CONDITIONS
WEST ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUD BASES LOOK TO
REMAIN AROUND 4-5K FT AGL WEST. STRONG SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED AREA WIDE ON FRIDAY. GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KBIS/KJMS/KMOT/KISN...WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE AT KDIK.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1014 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH A DEEP UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO SET UP A DEEP-MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND PERIODS OF RAIN...MAINLY LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
OVER MOST OF THE REGION.
POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE BAHAMAS...IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...AND HEAD INTO THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LIGHT-MODERATE
RAIN FROM SOMERSET ENE TO THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY...SPREADING
VERY SLOWLY OFF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
THE 850 MB FRONT IS DRAPED FROM SERN VA...TO THE DELMARVA
REGION...WITH A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT EXTENDING NORTH TO BEYOND
THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE 850MB FLOW OFF THE OCEAN IS STILL FROM THE
ENE AND GENERALLY PARALLEL WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO PRECIP WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME TRYING TO SPREAD NORTH AND WEST TODAY. LATEST
MDL QPF RANGES FROM NOTHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...TO PERHAPS A
TENTH OF AN INCH SOUTH OF HARRISBURG.
USED A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND SREF FOR THE ONSET TIMING...AREAL
COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF LIGHT-MDT RAIN PUSHING BACK TO THE NW AND
TWD CENTRAL PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 02/08Z HRRR RUN
SHOWS THE NWRN EDGE OF STEADY/LIGHT RAIN SHOULD REACH A KAOO TO
KUNV AND KIPT LINE BY 23Z.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL EDGE INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND REACH MID AND UPPER 50S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
RAIN OVERSPREADS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS LATER TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUES AT A LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...AND DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.
THE SREF AND GEFS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE INCREASING EAST TO
SELY FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH RAIN BACK TO THE NW DURING
THE DAY TODAY. BY THIS EVENING IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH
AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...PERHAPS A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR /BUT ONLY
PLUS 1 SIGMA AT 850 MB/ WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS. RAINFALL
RATES COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT HIGHLY LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE. A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH TO THE NORTH AND HURRICANE
JOAQUIN OFF THE SE COAST WILL CREATE A BREEZY FRIDAY...WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS CLOSE TO 20KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL LOOKING AT WET WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS THE LARGE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
RESULTS IN A NE TO E FLOW BECOMING MORE SE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THUS REGARDLESS OF INPUT FROM THE TROPICS...STILL LOOKING AT A
WINDY...COOL...WET PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND
MAYBE TUE AM...DEPENDING ON THE INTERACTION OF THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW WITH THE HURRICANE.
TRIMMED POPS AND QPF BY 20 PERCENT OR MORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE WWD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BAND SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB LIKELY TO BE
INTENSE...AS COLDER AIR BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NY AND
WARM...TROPICAL AIR ADVECTS TO THE NW FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS OF MID MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ACROSS SERN TERMINALS
AS STEADIER RAIN PUSHES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. FARTHER TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA...GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER ERN CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SERN US WILL
MAINTAIN A BRISK LLVL NERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY AS
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST BEGINS TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-MON...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE.
TUE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
728 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STAY ANCHORED OVER CROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND AN
EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND PERIODS OF RAIN...MAINLY LATE TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. POWERFUL
HURRICANE JOAQUIN NOW OVER THE BAHAMAS...APPEARS THAT HE WILL
TAKE A TRACK WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND...AND HEAD
INTO THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC LOOP AT 09Z SHOWS INCREASINGLY PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN FALLING SEVERAL OF OUR SE COUNTIES /ALONG AND TO THE
EAST OF KTHV...KMDT AND KMUI/.
THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WAS EXPERIENCING CHILLY TEMPS IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S...UNDER OVC SKIES WITH A LIGHT TO MDT NE SFC
WIND. BRADFORD HAS FALLING TO 38F THIS HOUR THANKS TO SOME THIN
SPOTS INTO CLOUD DECK.
THE 850 MB FRONT IS DRAPED FROM SERN VA...TO THE DELMARVA
REGION...WITH A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT EXTENDING NORTH TO BEYOND
THE I95 CORRIDOR. THE 850MB FLOW OFF THE OCEAN IS STILL FROM THE
ENE AND GENERALLY PARALLEL WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO PRECIP WILL
HAVE A TOUGH TIME SPREADING QUICK TO THE NORTH AND WEST INTO OUR
CWA. LATEST MDL QPF RANGES FROM NOTHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA...TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH SOUTH OF HARRISBURG.
WILL CONTINUE TO EMPLOY A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND SREF FOR
THE ONSET TIMING...AREAL COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF LIGHT-MDT RAIN
PUSHING BACK TO THE NW AND TWD CENTRAL PENN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. 02/08Z HRRR RUN SHOWS THE NWRN EDGE OF STEADY/LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD REACH A KAOO TO KUNV AND KIPT LINE BY 23Z.
MIN TEMPS AROUND SUNRISE TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U30S OVER
THE NW MTNS...WHERE THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST WILL OCCUR...TO THE
L50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE A SOLID OVERCAST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU DAWN. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL EDGE INTO THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND
REACH MID AND UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
RAIN OVERSPREADS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS LATER TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUES AT A LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...AND DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.
THE SREF AND GEFS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE INCREASING EAST TO
SELY FLOW...WHICH WILL HELP TO PUSH RAIN BACK TO THE NW DURING
THE DAY TODAY. BY THIS EVENING IT LOOKS LIKE THE SERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH
AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE...PERHAPS A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR /BUT ONLY
PLUS 1 SIGMA AT 850 MB/ WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS. RAINFALL
RATES COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT HIGHLY LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON
IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE. A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH TO THE NORTH AND HURRICANE
JOAQUIN OFF THE SE COAST WILL CREATE A BREEZY FRIDAY...WITH BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS CLOSE TO 20KTS AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL LOOKING AT WET WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS THE LARGE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
RESULTS IN A NE TO E FLOW BECOMING MORE SE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THUS REGARDLESS OF INPUT FROM THE TROPICS...STILL LOOKING AT A
WINDY...COOL...WET PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND
MAYBE TUE AM...DEPENDING ON THE INTERACTION OF THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW WITH THE HURRICANE.
TRIMMED POPS AND QPF BY 20 PERCENT OR MORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE WWD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BAND SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB LIKELY TO BE
INTENSE...AS COLDER AIR BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NY AND
WARM...TROPICAL AIR ADVECTS TO THE NW FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA AT 12Z.
FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ACROSS SERN TERMINALS
/KMDT AND KLNS/ TODAY...AS STEADIER RAIN AND LOWER CIGS PUSH
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...GENERALLY VFR CONDS SHOULD PERSIST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER ERN CANADA AND LOW PRES ACROSS THE SERN US
WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK LLVL NERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND SAT...AS A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST BEGINS TO DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-MON...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE.
TUE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN MVFR TO IFR DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS KPVW AND KLBB
THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...VFR DECKS WILL OCCUR AS SLIGHTLY
BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL COMMENCE
TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE TERMINALS AND COULD AFFECT THE
TERMINALS...PARTICULARLY KPVW AND KLBB TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD/SHORTLY AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...
UA RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST STILL HAS ITS ERN PERIPHERY
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...THUS PROMOTING N-NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE THAT HAS ROUNDED THE TOP OF THE UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROMOTING
AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE
FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO ACROSS THE NRN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SE TX
PANHANDLE. THE ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE
APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT...THOUGH HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF HINTS AT THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING A BIT MORE
SCATTERED BY SUNRISE /LIKELY PICKING UP ON INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE/ AND POSSIBLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS AND
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THE OTHER INTERESTING WX FEATURE IS AN AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS /BELOW 1000 FT AGL/ EXTENDING FROM THE ERN-HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES SE TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS THUS FAR.
THIS IS THANKS TO THE UPSLOPE SFC WINDS DRAWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS DECK...AND HENCE
SHOWS FURTHER LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
COMMENCING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS /AND MAYBE EVEN LIGHT FOG/...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE CLOUD DECKS MAY REMAIN
AOA 3000 FT AGL GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THERE /THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT/.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS DECK SCOURING OUT BY EARLY
AFTN...HOWEVER COOLER TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED
/70S AND 80S/ DUE TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS.
TONIGHT...THE UA RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY WHILST GETTING NUDGED EAST OF
THE FA MAKING WAY FOR AN UA LOW THAT IS PROGRESSING NE ACROSS NV
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES BY
TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE THE RESULT INITIALLY ACROSS THE WRN
ZONES...WHILE CONCURRENTLY A SFC TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE SAID AREA.
WITH PWATS HOLDING STEADY AOA 1.00 INCH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE SFC WIND COUPLED WITH THE LLJ KICKING UP TO 20-30 KTS...AND
THUS GIVING WAY TO ADEQUATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES /INITIALLY ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES/.
BEST 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SFC-BASED CAPE IS PROGGED W AND NW OF THE CWA
SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH 50S BEING COMMON ACROSS THE CWA...AND A FEW
40S NOTED ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES.
LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE TAKING A SERIOUS DIVERGENCE.
UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE NEAR OR OVER THE FCST AREA
FOR QUITE A WHILE NOW WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN AS SERIOUS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DIVES SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST CARVING OUT A TROUGH
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AS IT DOES. A CLOSED LOW WILL END UP OVER SRN
CALIF AS THE NEXT WORK WEEK STARTS. FROM THERE MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE ECMWF MOVING THIS LOW SLOWLY IN A GENERALLY ESEWD DIRECTION TO
NEAR EL PASO BY END OF DAY THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS OPENS THIS
TROUGH UP AND MOVES IT QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS TO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTN. FCST NEAR EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN
FAVORED BY WPC AND GIVEN TRACK RECORDS OF THE MODELS WILL ALSO
LEAN TOWARD THAT SOLUTION.
RESULTING FCST IS THUS QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN RECENT WEEKS WITH
TEMPS MAINLY 50S FOR LOWS AND 70S FOR HIGHS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE TROUGH FORMING
TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS COME TO AN END SUNDAY AND FOR
THE MOST PART SO WILL RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME STORMS TO MOVE OUT OF ERN NM LATE SUNDAY. RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WAITING FOR THE
LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION. THAT SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY WHEN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED BY INCREASED
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT BRING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL QUITE
A WHILE TO GO BEFORE THEN WITH MANY MODEL RUNS YET TO COME...SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PCT RANGE ATTM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 75 49 70 49 / 10 40 40 40
TULIA 73 47 69 48 / 10 30 40 30
PLAINVIEW 74 48 72 50 / 10 20 30 30
LEVELLAND 79 53 75 52 / 10 20 30 40
LUBBOCK 76 52 75 53 / 10 20 30 20
DENVER CITY 81 56 79 55 / 10 20 30 40
BROWNFIELD 80 55 78 55 / 10 20 30 30
CHILDRESS 75 51 73 53 / 30 20 20 20
SPUR 77 52 77 53 / 20 10 20 10
ASPERMONT 80 55 81 56 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1203 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ATTM WAS TO LOWER RAINFALL
INTENSITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED ATTM. 12Z
MODELS ARE COMING IN AND INITIAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS STILL REVEAL
THE SAME DIVERSE SCENARIOS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THE
RAIN...BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST AMOUNTS
AND EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF THE AMOUNTS OCCUR.
SO FAR THIS MORNING THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 24 HOUR AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A HALF
INCH /0.50/ NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE TO AROUND AN INCH /1.0/ IN SOUTH
BOSTON...TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES NEAR THE COAST WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. RADAR INDICATES THE HEAVIEST PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
STREAMING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA AND A SECONDARY AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS OVER KY/TN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
ESSENTIALLY DIVIDING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE COAST FROM THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE TN VALLEY. THE MORNING RNK SOUNDING INDICATED A DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 800-600 MB WHICH IS HELPING TO MINIMIZE RAINFALL RATES
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA ATTM...THUS THE REASON TO TRIM
BOTH THE RATES AND QPF WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE JUST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON PINWHEELING SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE COAST WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
COMBINATION OF DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AS ENERGY TRACKS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALABAMA INTO FLORIDA
AND UPSLOPE WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER WILL RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
USED THE GFS AND RAP MODELS TO TIME A BROAD BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
21Z/5PM THIS EVENING AND 12Z/8AM SATURDAY.
USED WPC GUIDANCE AS A BASIS FOR THE RAINFALL FORECAST WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS. HAVE TONED
BACK PREVIOUS FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT WILL STILL BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING IS STILL HIGH. NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCHED WERE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED WIND OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE BUT STILL WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE. SIMILAR TO PHILOSOPHY IN THE WINTER WHEN
HEADLINES ARE ISSUED BASED ON IMPACT...HAVE GONE WITH A NON
CONVENTIONAL HIGH WIND WATCH...ALSO BASED ON IMPACT SINCE WINDS
OF THAT MAGNITUDE ARE UNLIKELY.
VERY STRONG INVERSION SEEN ON 06Z SOUNDINGS AT ABOUT 2000 FT AGL WITH
PRONOUNCED LAYER OF STABLE...COOL AIR BENEATH THE INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE SHORT WAVE AXIS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP
LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. WE LOWERED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
/0.25/ FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT A HALF /0.50/ INCH ON
EASTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE TO AN INCH /1.00/
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA BLUE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF
THIS RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF LOWERING
AMOUNTS SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT (2-5 INCHES...LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE). ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL ONLY DELAY FLOOD WATERS FROM RECEDING. DESPITE SOME OF
THESE CHANGES...WE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
IS...DUE TO A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN THAT COULD CHANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN. WE ALSO ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH WINDS (10-25
MPH) WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...SATURATED GROUND...WET
FOLIAGE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD UPROOT TREES.
GENERALLY...BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT JOAQUIN
WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER ITS NOT
UNANIMOUS IN THIS VERY COMPLEX PATTERN SO WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE WOODS YET. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRACK AND
FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY MONDAY. THE MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE
AND BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA NEAR
THE BORDER IN SOUTH CAROLINA OR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...
BY MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT ONLY LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP ALONG
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LINGERING...IF ANY AT ALL...AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS MORE EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT RIVER RUNOFF ISSUES LIKELY
TO CONTINUE. OBVIOUSLY...IF JOAQUIN DOES STILL MANAGE TO GET PULLED
WEST...ALL THIS COULD CHANGE FOR MONDAY...AND CONTINUED SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WOULD BE OF
CONCERN. BUT AGAIN...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
THE ADDITIONAL GOOD NEWS IS THAT FOR THE REMINDER OF NEXT WEEK A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN....WHICH IS THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS...WITH A MUCH NEEDED DRYING PERIOD AND
APPEARANCE OF THE SUN AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE 70S AGAIN...ANY FLOOD WATERS ON RIVERS WILL RECEDE...AND
RAPIDLY GROWING GRASS CAN BE MOWED AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN BEGINNING AT THE KLWB AIRPORT BY 14Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MAJORITY OF THE
GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 18 TO 28 KNOT RANGE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE E/NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BE
GUSTY AT TIMES. STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER TO MORE SHOWERY
NATURE BY SUNDAY WITH LINGERING MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO FINALLY BUILD IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 750 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE LOWER ROANOKE AND
DAN RIVERS...EVEN THOUGH RANDOLPH AND DANVILLE HAVE FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...DUE TO THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION EVENT WHICH WILL
DRIVE STAGES HIGHER AGAIN. THIS EVENT STILL PROMISES TO BE A MAJOR
RAIN-MAKER AND FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE 4 RFCS THAT SERVE OUR
AREA SHOW RIVER FLOODING IN ALL BASINS EXCEPT FOR THE TENNESSEE.
ALL GUIDANCE IS BASED ON FORECAST RAINFALL (QPF) OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS WHICH ACCORDING TO THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
VARIES FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES. NO FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED YET
ON THESE RIVERS DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY USUALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH QPF-BASED RIVER FORECASTS.
CURRENT FORECAST HYDROGRAPHS ON THE AHPS PAGE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
PAGE AT HTTP:/WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=RNK DO NOT YET
REFLECT THE ENTIRE AMOUNT OF FORECAST RAINFALL. YET EVEN WITHOUT THE
FULL QPF...SEVERAL RIVERS ARE FORECAST WELL INTO THE MODERATE
CATEGORY. IF THE RAIN DOES REACH CURRENT WPC FORECAST TOTALS THEN
MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE ON SEVERAL RIVERS AS IS
SHOWN ON SEVERAL RECENT RUNS OF THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (MMEFS). UPDATES TO THE RIVER FORECASTS ARE LIKELY
EVERY 6 TO 12 HOURS DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION AND STABILITY OF
EXISTING FORECASTS.
FLASH FLOODING IS CLEARLY A HIGH PROBABILITY IN THIS EVENT AS WELL.
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AT 3-HOURS RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND WILL BE FALLING QUICKLY AS RAIN MOVES IN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT.
FINALLY...THE POSSIBILITY OF LANDSLIDES AND MAJOR DEBRIS FLOWS
CANNOT BE IGNORED. IT HAS BEEN SHOWN IN SEVERAL POST-EVENT STUDIES
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THAT RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT LANDSLIDE ACTIVITY. PARTS OF WATAUGA
COUNTY NC HAVE EXPERIENCED VERY SEVERE LANDSLIDES IN THE
PAST...MOST NOTABLY BACK IN AUGUST 1940. THE STEEPER TERRAIN OF
THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA HAS ALSO SUFFERED SEVERE LANDSLIDES
HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969 BEING THE BEST EXAMPLE OF A HIGH
IMPACT EVENT. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTAINS CALL TO
ACTION WORDING FOR POSSIBLE LANDSLIDES IN SEVERAL COUNTIES.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ010>020-
022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ012>020-022>024-032>035-043-045>047.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ007-009.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ005-006.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-
018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/CF
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
752 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 435 AM EDT THURSDAY...
COMBINATION OF DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AS ENERGY TRACKS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALABAMA INTO FLORIDA
AND UPSLOPE WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER WILL RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. USED THE GFS AND RAP MODELS TO TIME A BROAD
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 12Z/8AM SATURDAY.
USED WPC GUIDANCE AS A BASIS FOR THE RAINFALL FORECAST WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS. SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE INDICATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AS IT ADVANCED FROM YADKIN COUNTY INTO
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY...BUT OVERALL NOT SEEING A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THIS EVENT. HAVE TONED BACK PREVIOUS
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT WILL STILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH THAT
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING IS STILL HIGH.
NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCHED WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED WIND OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE BUT STILL WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE. SIMILAR TO PHILOSOPHY IN THE WINTER WHEN
HEADLINES ARE ISSUED BASED ON IMPACT...HAVE GONE WITH A NON
CONVENTIONAL HIGH WIND WATCH...ALSO BASED ON IMPACT SINCE WINDS
OF THAT MAGNITUDE ARE UNLIKELY.
VERY STRONG INVERSION SEEN ON 06Z SOUNDINGS AT ABOUT 2000 FT AGL WITH
PRONOUNCED LAYER OF STABLE...COOL AIR BENEATH THE INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE SHORT WAVE AXIS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP
LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. WE LOWERED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
/0.25/ FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT A HALF /0.50/ INCH ON
EASTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE TO AN INCH /1.00/
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA BLUE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF
THIS RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF LOWERING
AMOUNTS SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT (2-5 INCHES...LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE). ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL ONLY DELAY FLOOD WATERS FROM RECEDING. DESPITE SOME OF
THESE CHANGES...WE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
IS...DUE TO A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN THAT COULD CHANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN. WE ALSO ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH WINDS (10-25
MPH) WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...SATURATED GROUND...WET
FOLIAGE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD UPROOT TREES.
GENERALLY...BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT JOAQUIN
WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER ITS NOT
UNANIMOUS IN THIS VERY COMPLEX PATTERN SO WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE WOODS YET. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRACK AND
FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY MONDAY. THE MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE
AND BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA NEAR
THE BORDER IN SOUTH CAROLINA OR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...
BY MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT ONLY LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP ALONG
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LINGERING...IF ANY AT ALL...AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS MORE EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT RIVER RUNOFF ISSUES LIKELY
TO CONTINUE. OBVIOUSLY...IF JOAQUIN DOES STILL MANAGE TO GET PULLED
WEST...ALL THIS COULD CHANGE FOR MONDAY...AND CONTINUED SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WOULD BE OF
CONCERN. BUT AGAIN...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
THE ADDITIONAL GOOD NEWS IS THAT FOR THE REMINDER OF NEXT WEEK A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN....WHICH IS THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS...WITH A MUCH NEEDED DRYING PERIOD AND
APPEARANCE OF THE SUN AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE 70S AGAIN...ANY FLOOD WATERS ON RIVERS WILL RECEDE...AND
RAPIDLY GROWING GRASS CAN BE MOWED AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN BEGINNING AT THE KLWB AIRPORT BY 14Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MAJORITY OF THE
GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 18 TO 28 KNOT RANGE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE E/NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BE
GUSTY AT TIMES. STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER TO MORE SHOWERY
NATURE BY SUNDAY WITH LINGERING MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO FINALLY BUILD IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 750 AM EDT THURSDAY...
THE RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE LOWER ROANOKE AND
DAN RIVERS...EVEN THOUGH RANDOLPH AND DANVILLE HAVE FALLEN BELOW
FLOOD STAGE...DUE TO THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION EVENT WHICH WILL
DRIVE STAGES HIGHER AGAIN. THIS EVENT STILL PROMISES TO BE A MAJOR
RAIN-MAKER AND FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE 4 RFCS THAT SERVE OUR
AREA SHOW RIVER FLOODING IN ALL BASINS EXCEPT FOR THE TENNESSEE.
ALL GUIDANCE IS BASED ON FORECAST RAINFALL (QPF) OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS WHICH ACCORDING TO THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
VARIES FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES. NO FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED YET
ON THESE RIVERS DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY USUALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH QPF-BASED RIVER FORECASTS.
CURRENT FORECAST HYDROGRAPHS ON THE AHPS PAGE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE
PAGE AT HTTP:/WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=RNK DO NOT YET
REFLECT THE ENTIRE AMOUNT OF FORECAST RAINFALL. YET EVEN WITHOUT THE
FULL QPF...SEVERAL RIVERS ARE FORECAST WELL INTO THE MODERATE
CATEGORY. IF THE RAIN DOES REACH CURRENT WPC FORECAST TOTALS THEN
MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE ON SEVERAL RIVERS AS IS
SHOWN ON SEVERAL RECENT RUNS OF THE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (MMEFS). UPDATES TO THE RIVER FORECASTS ARE LIKELY
EVERY 6 TO 12 HOURS DEPENDING ON THE SITUATION AND STABILITY OF
EXISTING FORECASTS.
FLASH FLOODING IS CLEARLY A HIGH PROBABILITY IN THIS EVENT AS WELL.
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AT 3-HOURS RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
AND WILL BE FALLING QUICKLY AS RAIN MOVES IN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT.
FINALLY...THE POSSIBILITY OF LANDSLIDES AND MAJOR DEBRIS FLOWS
CANNOT BE IGNORED. IT HAS BEEN SHOWN IN SEVERAL POST-EVENT STUDIES
IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THAT RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT LANDSLIDE ACTIVITY. PARTS OF WATAUGA
COUNTY NC HAVE EXPERIENCED VERY SEVERE LANDSLIDES IN THE
PAST...MOST NOTABLY BACK IN AUGUST 1940. THE STEEPER TERRAIN OF
THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA HAS ALSO SUFFERED SEVERE LANDSLIDES
...HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969 BEING THE BEST EXAMPLE OF A HIGH
IMPACT EVENT. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTAINS CALL TO
ACTION WORDING FOR POSSIBLE LANDSLIDES IN SEVERAL COUNTIES.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ010>020-
022>024-032>035-043.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
VAZ012>020-022>024-032>035-043-045>047.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR VAZ007-009.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ044>047-058-
059.
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ001>004-018>020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-
018>020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ005-006.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/CF
HYDROLOGY...AMS/NF/PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
800 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
AREA RADAR SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST. ALSO...WYDOT WEBCAMS TO THE WEST OF CHEYENNE
SHOWING VERY DENSE FOG CONTINUING AS OF 8 AM THIS MORNING. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TIME TODAY.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING WE MAY STAY DOWN ALL DAY IN STRATUS
AND FOG. CERTAINLY BY NOON THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES. WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER THIS MORNING AND ADJUST AS
NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. WYDOT WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW EXTREMELY LOW
VISIBILITIES AROUND VEDAUWOO...AND RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE
INDICATED OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT KCYS
AS WELL. STRONG LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE AS EVIDENCED BY SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S OVER THE PLAINS. DO NOT SEE ANY REASON FOR
FOG TO LIFT ANYTIME SOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADZY
FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD INTO KCYS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS AM. THIS WILL
BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ATOP PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE IN
EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS
COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL
HAIL. IT IS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST A THREAT FOR CONVECTION
WILL EXIST TODAY WITH SUCH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY...BUT WE
ARE DEALING WITH A COOL/DYNAMIC SYSTEM SO BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES VIRTUALLY ANYWHERE.
INTRODUCED CATEGORICAL POPS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT ALONG AND E
OF A CHEYENNE WYO TO HARRISON NEB LINE. THE NAM/GFS/ECM/GEM ARE ALL
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN H25 JET AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LIFTING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THAT TIME WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AT 700 MILLIBARS. THIS SHOULD BE
A GREAT SETUP FOR A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD...HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BEST MID-LEVEL PVA WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS WELL. MODELED QPF FIELDS
ARE PLENTY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER WARM
SYSTEM WITH MOST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW H7 TEMPS WARMER THAN +2 C
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND WET BULB EFFECTS...
IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET IN THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. SHOULD BE VERY LOW IMPACT THOUGH. IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT AM WITH A SIMILAR LOW-LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINING INTACT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A RAW DAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIP COMBINING
WITH COOL THERMAL PROFILES BENEATH THE UPPER LOW (H7 TEMPS LESS THAN
6 DEG C ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA) TO EFFECTIVELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT
15 KTS OR SO GIVEN A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. EXPECT DECREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN
ON SUNDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH
AND WIND FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND
LOW STRATUS ON SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY WITH THE POSITION
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TO START THE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES APPEAR BY MID WEEK
AS THE GFS LIFTS THE TROUGH EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CO/NM...WHILE THE
ECMWF SLOWS AND STALLS THE LOW OVER THE NM/WEST TX BORDER.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH EASTERN CO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MONDAY. DIFFLEUNT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME WILL
AVERAGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THE TROUGH AND EASTERN CO SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WY INCLUDING
CHEYENNE THROUGH 15Z...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN NE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. CONDITION MAY NOT IMPROVE TO VFR
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KT WILL PREVAIL. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A MUCH COOLER AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET. ALTHOUGH WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ116>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
633 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN CROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
622 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE THANKS IN PART TO LOSS OF
HEATING. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS CONCENTRATED RIGHT ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE.
THE 12Z RUN OF THE HI RES WRF AND HRRR DOING OK W/THE HANDLING OF
THE SHOWERS AND SHOWING THE TREND TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS(4500 FT) ACROSS THE REGION W/UPPER LOW
MOVING E ACROSS QUEBEC AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING N. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH CLEARING THIS EVENING W/MOISTURE STAYING PLACE
AT THE 850MBS LEVEL AND ABOVE 700MBS. THIS SHOWN WELL BY THE NAM12
SOUNDINGS W/NNE FLOW IN THE LLVL AND SW FLOW ALOFT.
LOW TEMPS TNGT WILL BE TRICKY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...BEING
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY SC EITHER DISSIPATES OR MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION. FOR NOW...WE TOOK LAST NGTS LOW TEMPS...AND REDUCED THE
N-S TOTAL DIFFERENCE BY ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEG...RESULTING IN A FCST
OF ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEG WARMER OVR THE COLD NW VLYS TO ABOUT 3 DEG
COOLER OVR DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH LITTLE CHG ELSEWHERE.
OTHERWISE...FCST HI TEMPS SAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TDY...
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE SLOWLY WORKING SWRD TOWARD DOWNEAST AREAS
WHICH WILL HOLD ON TO CLD CVR THE LONGEST. WINDS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY LESS THEN TDY. WITH THE CNTR OF THE SFC HIGH APCHG NRN
PTNS OF THE FA SAT NGT WITH MCLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS...A MORE
DEFINED PATTERN OF RIDGE/VLY RADITIONAL COOLING OVRNGT LOWS
SHOULD EMERGE BY ERLY SUN MORN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N WHERE SKIES
WILL BE MCLR FROM EARLIEST IN THE PD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40S CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS
EXPECTED. HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND WE ONLY INDICATE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LOW VFR TO MVFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES MOST
OF TNGT...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO UNLMTD VFR WORKING S TO N ACROSS THE
SITES LATE TNGT INTO SAT MORN. AFTWRDS...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FROM
SAT AFTN THRU SAT NGT.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTD SCA CONDITIONS XPCTD THRU SAT. ALTHOUGH WE
INDICATE AN END TM OF THE SCA AT 00Z SUN...SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONT OVR THE OUTER MZS050-051 BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE
DROPPED FOR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD AS JUAQUIN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
111 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2015
Area of low clouds will continue to progress westward into early
afternoon and will eventually begin to scatter out per the RAP RH
fields. With the clearing and the mixing, we should begin seeing
the wind gusts occurring. Highs in the middle to upper 60s still
look good for this afternoon.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2015
Relatively strong surface ridge extends from northwestern WI south-
southwest into north central OK. Gusty northeast winds can be
expected today due to the fairly tight surface pressure gradient
across the region. East-northeasterly low level, 850 mb winds will
bring increasing moisture and cloudiness westward into portions of
east central and southeast MO and southwest IL later today north-
northwest of the mid-upper level low and associated weak inverted
surface trough over the Gulf Coast states into the Tennessee Valley
region. These clouds along with weak low level cold air advection
and 850 mb temperatures of only about 8-10 degrees C over our area
will hinder daytime heating today. High temperatures today will be
a tad cooler than yesterday, and about 5 degrees below normal for
early October.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2015
Cutoff low forming over the southeast U.S. in the base of the
eastern CONUS longwave trof is forecast to wobble southeast over the
next few days and nights, and eventually interact with Joaquin as it
works its was north from the Bahamas. The very slow eastward
progression of this feature. along with the development of the upper
low over the southwestern U.S., means very little movement of
weather features across the central CONUS over the next few days and
nights. This atmospheric traffic jam will keep surface ridging
locked over the area tonight into Monday.
Low level moisture which begins to work into the area today should
increase tonight and into the weekend due to an intensification
of the easterly flow produced by the increase of the pressure
gradient between aforementioned surface ridge and lowering
pressures over the southeast U.S. 00z guidance supports earlier
model trends of indicating a westward surge of this low level
moisture, and plan view RH progs as well as forecast soundings
suggest this cloudiness gradually spreading west across the FA
tonight into Sunday morning. Have attempted to tweak temp trends
to reflect this increase in cloudiness, with clouds tending to
limit the diurnal swing in the mercury as they move into an area.
Can`t totally rule out a slight threat of showers with increase of
low level moisture, but at this point will keep forecast dry as
moisture is rather stratified with an apparent lack of any
pronounced dynamics/lift over the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Upper pattern over the CONUS should become progressive once again early
next week as the combo of Joaquin and southeast U.S. cutoff begin
to propagate up the east coast and into the western Atlantic.
Specifics of medium range forecasts remain rather chaotic, but
there does seem to be some agreement that remnants of low over the
southwest U.S. will press into the central CONUS by Wednesday
night/Thursday, so have continued some low PoPs during this time
frame.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2015
MVFR ceilings have moved out of KUIN and the St. Louis metro TAF
sites, but have moved into the KCOU. Expect these clouds to move
out of KCOU by 20Z. Expect some gusts this afternoon into the
18-25KT range with mixing before they diminish by 00Z with loss of
daytime heating. Clouds will move back into the area late tonight
and early Saturday with VFR ceilings. Gusty northeast winds are
expected once again by mid morning Saturday.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered clouds through this evening before
broken VFR ceilings move back into the area from the east
overnight. Gusty northeast winds will diminish this evening with
loss of daytime heating, but then increase again by mid morning
Saturday.
Britt
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 66 51 65 53 / 5 10 10 10
Quincy 65 44 63 47 / 0 5 5 10
Columbia 66 44 64 47 / 0 5 5 10
Jefferson City 67 44 66 47 / 0 5 5 10
Salem 66 52 63 53 / 10 30 20 20
Farmington 64 48 63 50 / 5 10 10 10
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1204 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2015
Area of low clouds will continue to progress westward into early
afternoon and will eventually begin to scatter out per the RAP RH
fields. With the clearing and the mixing, we should begin seeing
the wind gusts occurring. Highs in the middle to upper 60s still
look good for this afternoon.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2015
Relatively strong surface ridge extends from northwestern WI south-
southwest into north central OK. Gusty northeast winds can be
expected today due to the fairly tight surface pressure gradient
across the region. East-northeasterly low level, 850 mb winds will
bring increasing moisture and cloudiness westward into portions of
east central and southeast MO and southwest IL later today north-
northwest of the mid-upper level low and associated weak inverted
surface trough over the Gulf Coast states into the Tennessee Valley
region. These clouds along with weak low level cold air advection
and 850 mb temperatures of only about 8-10 degrees C over our area
will hinder daytime heating today. High temperatures today will be
a tad cooler than yesterday, and about 5 degrees below normal for
early October.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2015
Cutoff low forming over the southeast U.S. in the base of the
eastern CONUS longwave trof is forecast to wobble southeast over the
next few days and nights, and eventually interact with Joaquin as it
works its was north from the Bahamas. The very slow eastward
progression of this feature. along with the development of the upper
low over the southwestern U.S., means very little movement of
weather features across the central CONUS over the next few days and
nights. This atmospheric traffic jam will keep surface ridging
locked over the area tonight into Monday.
Low level moisture which begins to work into the area today should
increase tonight and into the weekend due to an intensification
of the easterly flow produced by the increase of the pressure
gradient between aforementioned surface ridge and lowering
pressures over the southeast U.S. 00z guidance supports earlier
model trends of indicating a westward surge of this low level
moisture, and plan view RH progs as well as forecast soundings
suggest this cloudiness gradually spreading west across the FA
tonight into Sunday morning. Have attempted to tweak temp trends
to reflect this increase in cloudiness, with clouds tending to
limit the diurnal swing in the mercury as they move into an area.
Can`t totally rule out a slight threat of showers with increase of
low level moisture, but at this point will keep forecast dry as
moisture is rather stratified with an apparent lack of any
pronounced dynamics/lift over the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Upper pattern over the CONUS should become progressive once again early
next week as the combo of Joaquin and southeast U.S. cutoff begin
to propagate up the east coast and into the western Atlantic.
Specifics of medium range forecasts remain rather chaotic, but
there does seem to be some agreement that remnants of low over the
southwest U.S. will press into the central CONUS by Wednesday
night/Thursday, so have continued some low PoPs during this time
frame.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2015
Persistent surface ridge extends from northwestern WI south-
southwest into north central OK with a tight surface pressure
gradient over MO and IL. Nely surface winds can be expected
through the forecast period, gusty at times during the late
morning and afternoon hours. Low level clouds at 2500-3500 feet in
height across southern IL will shift westward into the St Louis
metro area early this morning and possibly also into UIN as well.
These clouds will likely rise in height with diurnal heating.
Should also get the development of diurnal cumulus clouds across
the area late this morning and this afternoon as low level
moisture increases across much of the area.
Specifics for KSTL: Low level clouds around 2500-3500 in height
across southern IL will advect westward into STL early this
morning. These clouds will gradually rise in height through the
day and may scatter out this afternoon with diurnal heating,
mixing and drying. Nely surface winds can be expected through the
forecast period, gusty at times during the late morning and
afternoon.
GKS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 66 51 65 53 / 5 5 5 5
Quincy 65 44 63 47 / 0 0 0 5
Columbia 65 44 64 47 / 0 0 0 5
Jefferson City 67 45 66 47 / 0 0 0 5
Salem 66 51 63 53 / 10 10 10 10
Farmington 64 48 63 50 / 5 5 5 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
1009 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SENT AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS FOLLOWING CURRENT
RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODEL PRECIP TRENDS. HRRR SEEMS TO BE THE MOST
BELIEVABLE SHOWING THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FIRST BAND OF
CONCENTRATED RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. ALSO FELT IT WAS BEST TO ISSUE A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND RESTRICT IT TO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WHERE THE GUSTIER WINDS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE
MODELS. GRANTED IT MAY ONLY BE NEAR THE DAM...BUT THAT WOULD BE
WHERE MOST PEOPLE USE IT AND THEREFORE MOST IMPACTFUL. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...FIRST BANDS OF RAIN BEGINNING TO
SPREAD OUT OF CENTRAL MONTANA IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. SO FAR NO ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN
REPORTED BUT RADAR ECHOS ARE INTENSIFYING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY AS STACKED LOW TAKES
SHAPE OVER WYOMING. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO THE
EASTERN ZONES ALONG WITH SOME SURGES OF DRIER AIR TO SCATTER THE
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED POSITION OF THE INVERTED TROF
EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW ...THE STRONGER WINDS
WILL STOP VERY CLOSE TO THE FACE OF FORT PECK DAM...RESULTING IN
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20
MPH.
STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO EASTERN MONTANA ON SATURDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LITTLE DRY SLOTTING TO OCCUR NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.
ON SUNDAY THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL BEGIN TO DRY
OUT OVER EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
COLD AIR WRAPS INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 0C IN CENTRAL
MONTANA. MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SNOW OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES...BUT GIVEN THE WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR MASS AND
BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION TYPE AS
JUST RAIN FOR NOW. EBERT
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE LONG RANGE PATTERN PLACES AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH 00Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES. LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD ENSURE COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
PREVAIL. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF KEEPING
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...THOUGH THE GFS WOULD SUPPORT SOME CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THIS SOLUTION CAN/T BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SPLIT FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UNDERCUTTING A RIDGE PATTERN OVER
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.
BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL TRANSLATE EAST WITH TIME...WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE BEING THE DOMINATING WEATHER FACTOR OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO PREVAIL AND A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WITH RISING HEIGHTS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES IN SOLUTIONS TO 500MB
HEIGHT PLACEMENT...LENDING TO REDUCED FORECAST CERTAINTY. WILL
LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AND HAVE HIGHS NEAR UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S WITH EARLY SIGNS POINTING TO A RIDGE-TYPE PATTERN REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MALIAWCO
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR...LOWERING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD RAIN BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION: PRECIPITATION BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WET CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
CIGS: STEADILY LOWERING FROM AROUND 10K AGL TO MVFR BY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
VSBY: MAINLY VFR...BUT PERIODS OF 3-5SM MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
MODERATE RAIN THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS. GILCHRIST
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR FORT PECK LAKE
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
1007 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE...
AN ACTIVE MORNING FOR CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL JET...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY GENERATED QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS WORKING NORTHEAST GRADUALLY WITH SHOWERS NOW
MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN ZONES. MORE ACTIVITY STILL TRAILING
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...SO RAISED POPS THERE TOO. BOTH
GFS AND HRRR HAVE A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND THIS CONFIRMED BY WATER VAPOR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE FROM THE BIGHORNS TO
WORLAND. BELIEVE THIS AREA WILL FILL IN AS THE AFTERNOON MOVES IN
BUT DID BACK OFF SOME ON POPS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. ADJUSTED
POPS TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND ABOVE DISCUSSION. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
CARRY PRETTY MUCH THE SAME SOLUTION. SHOWER AND SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALREADY WORKING UP INTO MONTANA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS WYOMING AND
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A GOOD UPSLOPE EVENT
INTO THE MOUNTAINS. AHEAD OF THE LOW SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO
LOOK GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT IN PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY A WEDGE OF COLD AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES AS A REINFORCING TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA.
THIS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES MAINLY FROM
BIG TIMBER WEST. THIS WILL HELP COOL THE COLUMN FOR SNOWFALL.
HAVING SAID THAT...GIVEN HOW MOIST THE COLUMN IS AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL ENOUGH TO GET
ACCUMULATING SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EVEN WITH WET
BULB EFFECTS...TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK TO BE ABLE TO REALLY COOL
OFF. THUS HAVE LOWERED SNOW TOTALS FOR RED LODGE TO HALF TO ONE
INCH. ALSO SUPPORTING THIS IS WPC PROBABILITIES ARE 20 TO 30
PERCENT FOR 1 INCH OR GREATER AT RED LODGE.
HAVE NOT CHANGED TEMPERATURES MUCH. TODAY TEMPERATURES ONLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S AND FOR SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S TO
50S. REIMER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT WILL SEE WEAKENING
UPSLOPE AND EVEN LESS ORGANIZATION TO THE UPPER LEVELS DRIVING THE
MULTIDAY WEATHER MAKER. HAVE SNOW LEVELS MENTIONED AROUND 6500
FEET MSL SUNDAY MORNING AND KEPT A MENTION OF A HALF INCH OF SNOW
FOR RED LODGE AND A COUPLE OF INCHES OVER BEARTOOTH PASS. CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL BUT AIRMASS WILL BE DRYING LATER IN
THE DAY AS CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW ALOFT
WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND BUT NO FORCING PRESENT SO JUST
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. WILL BE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT ONLY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS DIVERGE FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH GFS TURNING THE FLOW
ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY AND BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AIR WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS IN FLAT RIDGING AND MAINTAINS WARMER TEMPERATURES.
BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF A KMLS-
KSHR LINE. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS
EVENING. SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAINLY BE OBSCURED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 050/053 041/051 039/064 044/068 047/072 049/072
6/W 78/W 74/R 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 060 046/051 036/050 037/066 041/070 043/071 044/069
7/W 89/W 73/R 11/B 11/B 11/B 21/B
HDN 066 051/055 042/053 039/066 043/070 045/074 046/074
6/W 77/W 63/R 21/U 11/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 064 049/056 044/056 040/067 043/069 047/074 047/074
7/T 57/W 64/R 21/B 01/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 067 048/058 044/057 042/067 045/070 047/073 047/074
7/T 67/W 63/R 21/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 061 046/053 044/056 040/064 043/068 045/069 046/071
7/T 46/W 53/R 21/B 01/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 068 048/056 040/055 038/068 042/071 044/073 043/074
6/W 77/W 74/R 21/B 11/B 21/B 12/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
206 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
IT LOOKS LIKE SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING ACROSS ERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL BE CARRIED NORTH INTO WRN NEB BY EARLY
AFTN. THIS MOISTURE WILL BECOME FOUNDATION FOR A SLOWLY
PROPAGATING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA TONIGHT.
THE ECM...RAP AND NAM MODELS APPEAR TO SUPPORT THIS FORECAST AND
QPF TOTALS OF AROUND 1/4 TO PERHAPS 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WITH LESS AMOUNTS WEST. GIVEN THE DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE BELOW 12KFT...THE FCST ONSET OF RAIN HAS BEEN DELAYED A FEW
HOURS. THE RAP MODEL APPEARS TO BE VERY FAST.
HIGHS TODAY RISE TO AROUND 60 WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS. THE
RAIN TONIGHT WILL OPERATE ON DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO
PRODUCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ARE
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
A CHILLY START TO SATURDAY EXPECTED WITH A WARM UP NEXT WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE SOME THUNDER. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME
POCKETS OF NEAR ZERO TO NEG LIFTED INDEX PROJECTIONS...WITH
FORECAST TO MENTION ISOLD T. THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WILL LIMIT MIXING AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE
50...AND COULD EASILY SEE SOME SITES HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES DOMINATE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...AS IT DIGS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARM AIR TO GET DRAWN NORTHWARD.
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE LOWER LEVELS
DRYING OUT. LITTLE LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER SO EXPECT GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS. THAT SAID...STILL SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS WITH
THE HIGH RH IN THE MID LEVELS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS
OF SPRINKLES. NO MENTION IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
MONITOR. THE CLOUDS DESPITE WAA WILL LIMIT WARMING TO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SUNDAY.
WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL EJECT TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS REGION FOR MID WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THE CWA...HOWEVER
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING GREATLY WITH TRACKING OF THIS LOW. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO LIFT THE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE THE EC
CUTS THE LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH SCENARIOS ARE
PLAUSIBLE DUE TO THE BLOCKY RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. WITH
THIS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS WILL LIMIT CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. AREAS OF STRATUS AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF A KVTN TO KLBF LINE LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
138 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY, CLOUDY, AND COOL TODAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS RAIN MOVES NORTH INTO THE AREA. RAIN MOVES BACK OUT
LATE SATURDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS
FEATURE, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK. HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAY OR MAY NOT
IMPACT THE GENERAL REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE
FORECAST TRACK FOR THAT SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, RECENT TRENDS
ARE FAVORING THAT THE STORM AND ITS IMPACTS, WILL BE EAST OF OUR
AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
1010 AM UPDATE...
BROUGHT MAX TEMPERATURES MORE IN LINE WITH THE COOLER SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE, AS THICK CLOUD COVER IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND THIS MORNING.
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS FIELDS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.
330 AM UPDATE...
CLOUDY AND DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN REMAINS ALONG THE
EAST COAST. AN AREA OF RAIN OVER MARYLAND AND DELAWARE WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO THE POCONOS THIS EVENING. THIS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ALOFT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW. RAIN MAY COME IN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTH. MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH HRRR ONE OF THE FASTEST WITH MOST OTHERS WAITING
UNTIL EVENING.
WITH CLOUDS AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY INTO
THE UPPER 50S. WARMEST IN SYRACUSE AWAY FROM THE THICKER AND
LOWER CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 AM UPDATE...
IN GENERAL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST OR THE MODELS. RAIN
COMES IN TONIGHT AND LASTS INTO SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
NE PA. LESSER CHANCES THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO SO SYRACUSE AND
ROME PROBABLY WILL GET NOTHING. RAINFALL TOTALS LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH IN THE FAR SOUTH OF NE PA.
RAIN PULLS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE SW. THIS RAIN
WELL AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE IN THE BAHAMAS AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE US. TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING FUNNELED NW INTO
AREA BUT BEING STOPPED BY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER SE CANADA.
DRY MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. UL LOW OVER SE US
MOVES OFF THE COAST WHILE HURRICANE REMAINS AHEAD OF IT TRACKING
SLOWLY NE. WARM SOME BUT STILL COOL WITH MORE SUN SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS JOAQUIN RACE NEWRD OVER THE WRN ATL HIPRES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
SRN CANADA NOSES INTO THE FCST AREA FOR MON NGT. THIS SHD KEEP THE
PCPN GNRLY EAST OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE NE FLOW AND CAA SOME
LGT SHWRS PSBL AT TIMES. WV MVG THRU THE NRN LAKES SUPRESSES THE
RDG A BIT AND MAY CONT TO BRING SOME ISLTD SHWRS INTO THE REGION
LTR TUE INTO WED. BY THU...WV HAS PASSED AND RDGG RETURNS BRINGING
DRY WX TWRDS THE END OF THE PD. TEMPS SHD AVG NEAR OR SLGTLY BLO
NRML THRU THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HI CLDS CONT OVER THE AREA WITH A PERSISTENT NELY SFC FLOW. THIS
HAS CONTD THE VFR CONDS FOR THE TAF SITES. MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
PCPN CONTS TO CREEP NWRD AND WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SOME LGT PCPN
TO AVP...AND PSBLY ELM AND BGM LTR TNGT. CONDS SHD REMAIN
VFR...XCPT AT AVP WHER THE LL MOISTURE LYR WILL BE THICKER AND
RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LTR TNGT AND THRU THE END OF THE PD.
.OUTLOOK...
SAT NGT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT AVP IN RAIN...AND PSBL AT ELM
AND BGM.
SUN - WED...GNRL VFR CONDS UNDER HIPRES.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY AND FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
FORECAST OF RAIN FOR EVERYONE (HEAVIER EAST AND LIGHTER WEST
INITIALLY... SHIFTING TO HEAVIER WEST LATER TODAY) AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE NE STILL LOOK GOOD... BUT SHORT TERM TRENDS REGARDING
AREAS OF PRIME HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE BEING MONITORED. HEAVIEST RAIN
IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA... WITH ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE WRN AND SW PIEDMONT ATTM. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
ABOUT THE EVENTUAL FATE OF HEAVY RAIN STREAMING JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA... OVER COASTAL NC AND ADJACENT AREAS JUST INLAND...
WHICH WE`VE BEEN EXPECTING TO PIVOT WESTWARD AND TRACK THROUGH
CENTRAL NC TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MESO LOW NOW TRACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN HAS IN ITS WAKE SOME WEAK RELATIVE
SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN RAINFALL INTENSITY TO ITS SOUTH
IN RECENT HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR HINTS AT THIS BUT ALSO SHOWS
RAINFALL FILLING BACK IN TO OUR SOUTH BETWEEN MYR AND CHS HEADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... SO FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE
RELATIVE LULL WILL BE TEMPORARY... AS THE INTENSE UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND HIGH WATER CONTENT WITH DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PROMPT
CONTINUED RAIN DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR TAKES THIS STREAM OF WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TOWARD THE WNW AND THROUGH CENTRAL NC BETWEEN
1 PM AND 8 PM... WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH OUR PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
REGARDING THE TIME OF GREATEST HEAVY RAIN RISK. WIND ADVISORY IS
LEFT AS IS... WITH THE WET SOIL AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING ROOT
STRUCTURES ALREADY CAUSING THE DOWNING OF NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IN THE LAST 12 HRS. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE WELL BELOW
TYPICAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA... HOWEVER FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30-40
MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 AM:
OVERVIEW: AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STALL IN VICINITY OF THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT...AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN
TRACKS SLOWLY NW/N THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST (FROM THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL LOW) INTO THE CAROLINAS...MID-LEVEL (700-500 MB) WARM
ADVECTION...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEP /TROPICAL/ MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5" (WEST) TO 2.2" (EAST)
ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN OBSERVED OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING.
TODAY/TONIGHT: EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TODAY AS 925-850 MB FLOW BACKS/STRENGTHENS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST (IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING SSE TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE)...RESULTING IN STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION /ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION/ ATOP A
PRONOUNCED CAD WEDGE AS H85 DEWPOINTS RISE TO 16-18C AND PWAT VALUES
INCREASE TO 2.00-2.25". THE HIGHEST PRECIP RATES WILL BE FOUND IN
POCKETS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER WARM
CONVEYER-BELT PRECIPITATION ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
FLOODING: 2-4" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 12Z SAT. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
WILL FALL WEST OF HWY 1 OVER THE MORE VARIED TOPOGRAPHY OF THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST.
WIND: MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 25-35 KT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN A
SHALLOW (2000 FT AGL) MIXED LAYER ATTENDANT STEEP SFC-900 MB LAPSE
RATES ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION AT THE BASE OF THE CAD WEDGE.
OCCASIONAL NORTHEAST GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFT/EVE WHEN INTENSE PRECIP
LOADING ASSOC/W ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY ALLOW DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT OF STRONGER FLOW /35-45 KT/ ATTENDANT A LOW-LEVEL SPEED
MAX PROGGED NEAR THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT ~900 MB. GIVEN
SATURATED SOIL AND HEAVY RAIN...DOWNED TREES AND SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. INDEED...REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED IN THE TRIAD AREA AND PORTIONS OF
THE TRIANGLE. WITH THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES BECOMING
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS THIS AFT/EVE...
DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THE
ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS A POSITION ACROSS
THE NE U.S. THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE AN ABNORMALLY
STRONG/PERSISTENT EAST-NE FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS.
LATEST ECMWF REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT IN ITS DEPICTION OF A MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE IN VICINITY OF THE SC-NC BORDER...DRIFTING EAST AS
THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THUS...EXPECT A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR A STEADY/MODERATE RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES SUNDAY-EARLY MONDAY WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.
PLAN TO TIER POPS FROM CATEGORICAL SOUTH TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH.
WHILE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SET-
UP...OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS AXIS.
CURRENTLY PREDICTING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS 1-2 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. A SHIFT IN THE
HEAVY RAIN AXIS IN EITHER DIRECTION WILL IMPACT THESE AMOUNTS. BASED
ON WHAT OCCURS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL NC BEYOND
ITS CURRENT LATE SUNDAY EXPIRATION.
HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT TO
THE MID 70S FAR SE WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ORIGINATE OFF THE GULF
STREAM. AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OFFSHORE MONDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION YIELDING MAX TEMPS MID 60S NW TO
NEAR 70 SE. MIN TEMPS UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MID-
UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS COMMENCE AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW SCOOT EASTWARD. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL AID TO END LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND
TO SLOWLY ERODE CLOUD COVER. SINCE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS MORE OF NLY
COMPONENT RATHER THAN NW (DOWNSLOPE)...CLOUDS MAY BE SLOWER TO ERODE
THAN USUAL. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF INSOLATION.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE UNTIL IT BECOMES EVIDENT
THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR OFF SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRONG HEATING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
AS HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY CENTERED THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
DRIFTS EAST AND NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS SFC FEATURE
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD/BAGGY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. SHOULD YIELD
DRY CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPS
70-75. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT
CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO VFR AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT EASTERN SITES. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT CONTINUED MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PROGRESSIVELY GETTING WORSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR/LIFR
WITH LOW CEILINGS THE PRIMARY CULPRIT WITH MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE LARGEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECTING GUSTS OF
AT LEAST 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME GUSTS TO 30-35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT AS HIGH. PERIODS OF
RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TRIAD TAF SITES THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR LARGER
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE CONDITIONS TRY TO RETURN TO VFR BY SOME TIME ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 250 PM FRIDAY...
...ANY MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MINOR...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS WEEKEND FOR THE HAW AND
UPPER NEUSE RIVER BASINS FOR MINOR FLOODING WHICH REACHES OR EXCEEDS
THE FLOOD STAGE BY A FEW FEET AT MOST. SEE WATER.WEATHER.GOV FOR
DETAILS AT INDIVIDUAL RIVER FORECAST POINTS.
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
TO PIVOT WEST...WITH MUCH LESS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON SATURDAY.
EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM <2 INCHES IN THE EAST TO 3-4 INCHES IN THE WEST. THIS
REDUCTION IN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENT WILL
GREATLY REDUCE THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING...
AS WHILE THE TOPSOIL (SEE 0-10CM & 0-200CM RELATIVE SOIL MOISTURE
FROM NASA HTTP://WEATHER.MSFC.NASA.GOV/SPORT) IS APPROACHING
SATURATION...THE DEEPER SOIL COLUMN HAS NOT RECOVERED...CONTAINING
<50% OF THE MOISTURE REQUIRED FOR SATURATION. AS SUCH...THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF STORAGE AVAILABLE IN THE DEEPER SOILS WHICH WILL
REDUCE RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY IF THE RAINFALL RATE IS NOT HIGH.
THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING...FOR AS NOTED
ABOVE...THE UPPER SOIL IS NEAR SATURATION SO HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD
PRODUCE VERY SWIFT RUNOFF INTO SMALL STREAMS OR LOW-LYING
AREAS...AND PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
COULD ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER TROF AND BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME...AND WE WILL NEED TO ASSESS OUR HYDROLOGIC STATUS
AFTER THIS FIRST ROUND OF RAINFALL...STAY TUNED.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...ELLIS
HYDROLOGY...MLM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
147 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY AND FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...
FORECAST OF RAIN FOR EVERYONE (HEAVIER EAST AND LIGHTER WEST
INITIALLY... SHIFTING TO HEAVIER WEST LATER TODAY) AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE NE STILL LOOK GOOD... BUT SHORT TERM TRENDS REGARDING
AREAS OF PRIME HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE BEING MONITORED. HEAVIEST RAIN
IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CWA... WITH ONLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE WRN AND SW PIEDMONT ATTM. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
ABOUT THE EVENTUAL FATE OF HEAVY RAIN STREAMING JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA... OVER COASTAL NC AND ADJACENT AREAS JUST INLAND...
WHICH WE`VE BEEN EXPECTING TO PIVOT WESTWARD AND TRACK THROUGH
CENTRAL NC TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A MESO LOW NOW TRACKING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN HAS IN ITS WAKE SOME WEAK RELATIVE
SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN RAINFALL INTENSITY TO ITS SOUTH
IN RECENT HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR HINTS AT THIS BUT ALSO SHOWS
RAINFALL FILLING BACK IN TO OUR SOUTH BETWEEN MYR AND CHS HEADING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... SO FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE
RELATIVE LULL WILL BE TEMPORARY... AS THE INTENSE UPPER DIVERGENCE
AND HIGH WATER CONTENT WITH DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PROMPT
CONTINUED RAIN DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR TAKES THIS STREAM OF WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TOWARD THE WNW AND THROUGH CENTRAL NC BETWEEN
1 PM AND 8 PM... WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH OUR PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
REGARDING THE TIME OF GREATEST HEAVY RAIN RISK. WIND ADVISORY IS
LEFT AS IS... WITH THE WET SOIL AND SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING ROOT
STRUCTURES ALREADY CAUSING THE DOWNING OF NUMEROUS TREES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IN THE LAST 12 HRS. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE WELL BELOW
TYPICAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA... HOWEVER FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30-40
MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 AM:
OVERVIEW: AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
STALL IN VICINITY OF THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT...AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN
TRACKS SLOWLY NW/N THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. DPVA ATTENDANT SMALL
AMPLITUDE WAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST (FROM THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL LOW) INTO THE CAROLINAS...MID-LEVEL (700-500 MB) WARM
ADVECTION...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...AND DEEP /TROPICAL/ MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5" (WEST) TO 2.2" (EAST)
ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN OBSERVED OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING.
TODAY/TONIGHT: EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TODAY AS 925-850 MB FLOW BACKS/STRENGTHENS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST (IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS /DPVA/ ATTENDANT THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING SSE TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE)...RESULTING IN STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION /ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION/ ATOP A
PRONOUNCED CAD WEDGE AS H85 DEWPOINTS RISE TO 16-18C AND PWAT VALUES
INCREASE TO 2.00-2.25". THE HIGHEST PRECIP RATES WILL BE FOUND IN
POCKETS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER WARM
CONVEYER-BELT PRECIPITATION ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
FLOODING: 2-4" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 12Z SAT. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
WILL FALL WEST OF HWY 1 OVER THE MORE VARIED TOPOGRAPHY OF THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFT/EVE INTO TONIGHT...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST.
WIND: MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 25-35 KT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN A
SHALLOW (2000 FT AGL) MIXED LAYER ATTENDANT STEEP SFC-900 MB LAPSE
RATES ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION AT THE BASE OF THE CAD WEDGE.
OCCASIONAL NORTHEAST GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PARTICULARLY THIS AFT/EVE WHEN INTENSE PRECIP
LOADING ASSOC/W ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY ALLOW DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT OF STRONGER FLOW /35-45 KT/ ATTENDANT A LOW-LEVEL SPEED
MAX PROGGED NEAR THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT ~900 MB. GIVEN
SATURATED SOIL AND HEAVY RAIN...DOWNED TREES AND SCATTERED POWER
OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. INDEED...REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES HAVE ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED IN THE TRIAD AREA AND PORTIONS OF
THE TRIANGLE. WITH THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES BECOMING
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS THIS AFT/EVE...
DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER. WITH THE
ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 8 AM SATURDAY. -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...
THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SHIFT WEST/SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC
ON SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS IN VICINITY OF NORTHERN FL /
SOUTHERN GA...WITH LIGHT RAIN GIVING WAY TO OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES/
DRIZZLE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER...AND PERHAPS ISOLD CONVECTION
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS A PERSISTENT (AND STRENGTHENING)
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS A TROPICAL ATLANTIC AIRMASS
INLAND...ERODING THE CAD WEDGE FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE DAY. AS
IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH REGARD
TO THE EVOLUTION OF CAD EROSION ON SAT...AND THUS TEMPERATURES...
CLOUD COVER...AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALSO REMAIN UNCERTAIN. WILL MAKE RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM FRIDAY...
THE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL LIKELY
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AS THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
INDICATE INTENSE BANDING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN A WEST TO EAST AXIS
ACROSS NE GEORGIA... SC... AND FAR SOUTHERN NC SUNDAY AS THE
MID/UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WOBBLE SLOWLY SE ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. EVEN IF THE HEAVIEST RAIN/QPF FALL ACROSS THE SOUTH
SUNDAY... THE LATEST EUROPEAN WITH OTHER MODEL SUPPORT... FORECAST
THE UPPER LOW TO BEGIN TO MOVE NE ALONG THE SC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. THIS WOULD SPREAD THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BACK
NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION (WITH A CONTINUED FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MONDAY). AT THIS POINT...
WE WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER SUNDAY... EXPECT A LOW OVERCAST AND PERIODS OF RAIN
ALL ZONES... WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT... SOUTHERN PIEDMONT... SANDHILLS... AND SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN. QPF OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE FORECAST SOUTH... WITH LOCALLY 4
INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER REGION. QPF TO THE NORTH
SHOULD BE AROUND 0.25 TO 0.50. IN ADDITION WE WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG NE FETCH WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS 20-30 MPH. HIGHS
SUNDAY GENERALLY MID 60S TO MID 70S NW TO SE.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY SPREAD BACK INLAND OVER NC SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. IF SO... THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO
MONDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POP AND INCREASE QPF TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL. LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS 65-72 MONDAY.
THEN FINALLY BY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY... TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE
THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES EJECT THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH THE NHC TRACK OF JOAQUIN WELL OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC SUPPORT CLEARING AND MILDER WEATHER BEGINNING TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY THAT
CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY RETURN TO VFR AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT EASTERN SITES. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT CONTINUED MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS PROGRESSIVELY GETTING WORSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO IFR/LIFR
WITH LOW CEILINGS THE PRIMARY CULPRIT WITH MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE LARGEST GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECTING GUSTS OF
AT LEAST 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME GUSTS TO 30-35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT AS HIGH. PERIODS OF
RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA WITH TRIAD TAF SITES THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR LARGER
ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LONG TERM: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVERSE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS
PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN SOME
AREAS BEFORE CONDITIONS TRY TO RETURN TO VFR BY SOME TIME ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 250 AM FRIDAY...
THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY MONDAY (PER LATEST FAVORED EUROPEAN SOLUTION).
THE HIGHEST RISK OF FLOODING APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE OVER THE REGION
TODAY... THEN SHIFT TO OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TWO DAY QPF OF 2-4 INCHES EXPECTED NORTH AND EAST... WITH
4-6 INCHES WEST AND SOUTH. THEN SUNDAY... THE HIGHEST FLASH FLOOD
THREAT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE ADDITIONAL 2-3
INCHES MAY FALL.
THEN THE LATEST EUROPEAN BRINGS HEAVY RAIN BACK TO THE ENTIRE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY QPF. NEEDLESS TO
SAY... A LONG DURATION FLASH FLOOD THREAT POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ007>011-
021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...ELLIS
HYDROLOGY...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1239 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
COMPLEX PRECIPITATION SYSTEM REQUIRED TO MAKE SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS
THIS AFTERNOON. RAISED POPS CENTRAL THROUGH THE NORTHWEST WHERE
BAND OF INITIAL RAIN/SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THAT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. TRIED TO SMOOTHLY BLEND THESE TWO PRECIP AREAS. WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS SOUTHWEST AT 1 PM CDT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
LIGHTNING DATA NETWORK SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA
WITH THE APPROACHING LINE. WILL ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER 17Z. UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
A VORT LOBE IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. A STRONGER LOBE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UTILIZED LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS WITH A COMBINATION OF
TIME LAGGED HRRR AND PREVIOUS FORECAST TO UPDATE POPS THROUGH
TODAY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
ALSO NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
TODAY...STRONGEST SOUTHWEST...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MAINLY WEST.
CURRENTLY...LEAD S/WV IMPULSE COUPLED WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE PAST
DAYBREAK.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION OF EASTERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH REMAINS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...THUS NO CHANGES TO THE
WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHIFT AND BE
CONFINED MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR MOVING INTO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND BEST OVERALL FORCING ACROSS THE
WEST. THE BULK OF QPF IS DEPICTED TO REMAIN OVER WYOMING AND
MONTANA NEAR THE SFC LOW/TROUGH.
CLOUD COVER AND A COOLING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL SEE HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON HOVERING BETWEEN 55 AND 65F DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
WET AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEST AS WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THEN
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS INTO EASTERN
MONTANA ON SATURDAY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY ROTATES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THE STRONG HIGH OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE MUCH DRIER...THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP OFF
QUICKLY AS YOU GET EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE ONTARIO HIGH AND NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
WINDY AS FRIDAY AND WIND HIGHLIGHTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON SUNDAY...AND ONE
LAST SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. THUS BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS FROM THE
WESTERN U.S. INTO THE PLAINS STATES AROUND MID-WEEK. CURRENTLY THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND THE
SUPERBLEND CURRENTLY MANIFESTS THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AFTER A COOL WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...WE WARM
SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PULL MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WEST AND
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR KDIK-KISN-MOT LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE VFR KBIS-KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-
043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
940 AM PDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OVER THE PACNW
TODAY FOLLOWED BY FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW AND BRING MORE CLOUDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY
WHICH MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW
QUICKLY RETURN ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.UPDATE...CLOUD COVER IS EXPANDING THROUGH THE VALLEY THIS MORNING
AND REMAINS EXTENSIVE ALONG THE COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOTHING ON RADAR YET
THIS MORNING...STILL EXPECT SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
FIRST OVER THE NORTH COAST AND THEN POSSIBLE NORTH INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. 14Z HRRR IS UNEXCITED
ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES...SHOWING NOTHING IN THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 04Z
SATURDAY...BUT NAM12 AND GFS20 CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME PRECIP. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS SOME THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND DO NOT THINK THAT THE
VALLEY WILL SEE MUCH OF ANYTHING. SKIES WILL NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY
TODAY BUT SHOULD SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY
AWAY FROM THE COAST. WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL INLAND...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE VALLEY.
BOWEN
.SHORT TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. ON ITS HEELS IS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND B.C. THIS FEATURE WILL NEAR THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTH COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR ZONES LATE TODAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER WASHINGTON
AND OREGON TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AROUND 0.4 TO 0.7 INCH.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A GOOD
WETTING RAIN. THE SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 7000 FEET...SO ANY
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGH CASCADES. A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY
SWITCHING THE FLOW TO OFFSHORE RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY...EVEN AT THE COAST. IN FACT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER 80 DEGREE DAY IN THE VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
IN THE NEAR TERM...STRATUS INCREASING ON THE COAST THIS MORNING AS
WELL AS UP THE COLUMBIA TO THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE ENTRANCE. CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN MORE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO CLEAR...AND EXPECT WE WILL HANG ONTO
STRATUS WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
.LONG TERM (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TO
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS SHOWING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT DUE TO SLIGHT MODEL
DIFFERENCES. /64
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR STRATUS WITH CIGS 2000-2500 FT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. MAY SEE SOME GRADUAL SCATTERING THIS
MORNING...PERHAPS AIDED BY SOME MIXING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT
ADVANCING TOWARDS THE REGION. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR APPEARS
PROBABLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT....WITH RETURN
TO MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN INLAND THIS EVENING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS REMAIN AROUND 3000 FT THROUGH
17Z...THEN MAY BEGIN TO SCATTER WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT RAIN AFT 03Z. CULLEN
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS OVER THE INNER WATERS THIS MORNING...BUT
STARTING TO INCREASE JUST BEYOND THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE OUTER WATERS...WHILE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 KT
POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. MAY SEE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT IN THE INNER WATERS...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY STRENGTH GUSTS. SEAS DOMINATED BY
A NW SWELL AND AROUND 7 TO 9 FT TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
ACHIEVING 10 FT SEAS NEAR BUOY 46089 AND INTO THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS WITH INCREASING CONTRIBUTION FROM WIND WAVES. HOWEVER...DUE
TO LOWER CONFIDENCE AND SMALL WINDOW OF CONCERN...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY ADVISORY FOR SEAS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS DECREASE EARLY SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS
DEVELOP DUE TO THE BUILDING THERMAL LOW PRESSURE AND
INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC. THIS KEEPS WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SEAS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CULLEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
PDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR
FROM 10 TO 60 NM
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
400 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO SET UP A DEEP-MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY OVER MOST OF
THE REGION.
POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE BAHAMAS...IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...AND HEAD INTO THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LIGHT-MODERATE
RAIN FROM CAMBRIA ENE TO JUST SOUTH OF WILLIAMSPORT. THE RAIN HAS
BEEN INCHING EVER SO SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING THE TREND INTO THE EVENING. I USED
THE HRRR TO BRING THE RAIN INTO CENTRAL ZONES BY EARLY
EVENING...AND COVERING ABOUT THE SERN 3/4 OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP LAYER
FLOW TAKES ON A SELY COMPONENT AS THE HUGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SERN STATES DIGS AND TAKES ON A NEG TILT. I LEANED VERY CLOSE TO
SREF POPS WHICH SHOW MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE CWA SEEING MEASURABLE
RAINOVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND MAX SURGES UP AND THRU
SOUTH- CENTRAL PA.
LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AVERAGING IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FROM NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR RAIN WILL BE DURING THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS
JUST LEFT OVER SHOWERS TO BE DEALT WITH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY BUILDS WESTWARD AND SHUNTS TO DEEPEST
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION AND OFF TO OUR WEST.
AFTER A WET MORNING...I USED A BLEND OF MOS AND SREF POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WHICH STILL MAY BE A BIT ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE.
IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID
50S FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE COOLER THAN
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAFL
AS PWS STEADILY DECLINE /AND REMAIN FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD/ BUT LOW CLOUDS AND POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
A DECREASING POP TREND AND DRY WEATHER A GOOD BET HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SOUTHEAST CLOSED LOW WHICH
ALLOWS THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE NRN TIER
STATES. ASIDE FROM A WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT AROUND MID
WEEK...MOST OF THE MON-THU PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPS
BACK TO EARLY OCTOBER CLIMATE NORMALS. RAIN RISK SHOULD INCREASE
BY FRIDAY 10/9 BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL BUT THE FAR SE TERMINALS REMAIN VFR AS OF 2 PM.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE FROM SE TO NW AS STEADIER RAIN
PUSHES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ERN CANADA AND
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SERN US WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK LLVL E-NERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEGINS TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...PERIODS OF RAIN/REDUCED CONDITIONS LIKELY. BREEZY OUT OF
THE EAST.
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
304 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO SET UP A DEEP-MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WITH PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY OVER MOST OF
THE REGION.
POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE BAHAMAS...IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK WELL OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...AND HEAD INTO THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC...SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LIGHT-MODERATE
RAIN FROM CAMBRIA ENE TO JUST SOUTH OF WILLIAMSPORT. THE RAIN HAS
BEEN INCHING EVER SO SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHWEST TODAY AND NEAR
TERM GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING THE TREND INTO THE EVENING. I USED
THE HRRR TO BRING THE RAIN INTO CENTRAL ZONES BY EARLY
EVENING...AND COVERING ABOUT THE SERN 3/4 OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT.
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP LAYER
FLOW TAKES ON A SELY COMPONENT AS THE HUGE UPPER LOW OVER THE
SERN STATES DIGS AND TAKES ON A NEG TILT. I LEANED VERY CLOSE TO
SREF POPS WHICH SHOW MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE CWA SEEING MEASURABLERAIN
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND MAX SURGES UP AND THRU SOUTH-
CENTRAL PA.
LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AVERAGING IN THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE FROM NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR RAIN WILL BE DURING THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY...WITH PERHAPS
JUST LEFT OVER SHOWERS TO BE DEALT WITH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY BUILDS WESTWARD AND SHUNTS TO DEEPEST
MOISTURE THROUGH THE REGION AND OFF TO OUR WEST.
AFTER A WET MORNING...I USED A BLEND OF MOS AND SREF POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON WHICH STILL MAY BE A BIT ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE.
IT WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID
50S FROM NW TO SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LOOKING AT WET WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS THE LARGE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
RESULTS IN A NE TO E FLOW BECOMING MORE SE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND.
THUS REGARDLESS OF INPUT FROM THE TROPICS...STILL LOOKING AT A
WINDY...COOL...WET PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND
MAYBE TUE AM...DEPENDING ON THE INTERACTION OF THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW WITH THE HURRICANE.
TRIMMED POPS AND QPF BY 20 PERCENT OR MORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE WWD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BAND SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND. FRONTAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB LIKELY TO BE
INTENSE...AS COLDER AIR BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NY AND
WARM...TROPICAL AIR ADVECTS TO THE NW FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL BUT THE FAR SE TERMINALS REMAIN VFR AS OF 2 PM.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE FROM SE TO NW AS STEADIER RAIN
PUSHES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST...OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ERN CANADA AND
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SERN US WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK LLVL E-NERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEGINS TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...PERIODS OF RAIN/REDUCED CONDITIONS LIKELY. BREEZY OUT OF
THE EAST.
MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1250 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AIDED BY UPSLOPE EASTERLY COMPONENT SURFACE FLOW HAS
HELPED MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED LOW LEVEL STRATACUMULUS CLOUDS...AT
KCDS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION ALONG THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BORDER WITH
WESTERN OKLAHOMA HAS PUSHED A SOLID STRATCUMULUS DECK SOUTHWEST
OVER THE TERMINAL THAT MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT BY 21Z.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...
UA RIDGING CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST STILL HAS ITS ERN PERIPHERY
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...THUS PROMOTING N-NW FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE THAT HAS ROUNDED THE TOP OF THE UA
RIDGE COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROMOTING
AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE
FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO ACROSS THE NRN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SE TX
PANHANDLE. THE ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE
APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT...THOUGH HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS SUCH AS
THE HRRR AND TTU WRF HINTS AT THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING A BIT MORE
SCATTERED BY SUNRISE /LIKELY PICKING UP ON INCREASING ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE/ AND POSSIBLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS AND
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THE OTHER INTERESTING WX FEATURE IS AN AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS /BELOW 1000 FT AGL/ EXTENDING FROM THE ERN-HALF OF THE
PANHANDLES SE TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS THUS FAR.
THIS IS THANKS TO THE UPSLOPE SFC WINDS DRAWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS DECK...AND HENCE
SHOWS FURTHER LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
COMMENCING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS /AND MAYBE EVEN LIGHT FOG/...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE CLOUD DECKS MAY REMAIN
AOA 3000 FT AGL GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THERE /THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT/.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATUS DECK SCOURING OUT BY EARLY
AFTN...HOWEVER COOLER TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED
/70S AND 80S/ DUE TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS.
TONIGHT...THE UA RIDGE WILL DE-AMPLIFY WHILST GETTING NUDGED EAST OF
THE FA MAKING WAY FOR AN UA LOW THAT IS PROGRESSING NE ACROSS NV
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL BE ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES BY
TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE THE RESULT INITIALLY ACROSS THE WRN
ZONES...WHILE CONCURRENTLY A SFC TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE SAID AREA.
WITH PWATS HOLDING STEADY AOA 1.00 INCH DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE SFC WIND COUPLED WITH THE LLJ KICKING UP TO 20-30 KTS...AND
THUS GIVING WAY TO ADEQUATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES /INITIALLY ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES/.
BEST 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SFC-BASED CAPE IS PROGGED W AND NW OF THE CWA
SO NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH 50S BEING COMMON ACROSS THE CWA...AND A FEW
40S NOTED ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES.
LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE TAKING A SERIOUS DIVERGENCE.
UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE NEAR OR OVER THE FCST AREA
FOR QUITE A WHILE NOW WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN AS SERIOUS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY DIVES SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST CARVING OUT A TROUGH
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS AS IT DOES. A CLOSED LOW WILL END UP OVER SRN
CALIF AS THE NEXT WORK WEEK STARTS. FROM THERE MODELS DIVERGE WITH
THE ECMWF MOVING THIS LOW SLOWLY IN A GENERALLY ESEWD DIRECTION TO
NEAR EL PASO BY END OF DAY THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS OPENS THIS
TROUGH UP AND MOVES IT QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS TO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY BY THURSDAY AFTN. FCST NEAR EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN
FAVORED BY WPC AND GIVEN TRACK RECORDS OF THE MODELS WILL ALSO
LEAN TOWARD THAT SOLUTION.
RESULTING FCST IS THUS QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN RECENT WEEKS WITH
TEMPS MAINLY 50S FOR LOWS AND 70S FOR HIGHS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE TROUGH FORMING
TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS COME TO AN END SUNDAY AND FOR
THE MOST PART SO WILL RAIN CHANCES...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SOME STORMS TO MOVE OUT OF ERN NM LATE SUNDAY. RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WAITING FOR THE
LOW TO APPROACH THE REGION. THAT SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY WHEN HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWED BY INCREASED
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT BRING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL QUITE
A WHILE TO GO BEFORE THEN WITH MANY MODEL RUNS YET TO COME...SO
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PCT RANGE ATTM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 49 70 49 69 / 40 40 40 30
TULIA 47 69 48 71 / 30 40 30 20
PLAINVIEW 48 72 50 73 / 20 30 30 20
LEVELLAND 53 75 52 75 / 20 30 40 20
LUBBOCK 52 75 53 75 / 20 30 20 20
DENVER CITY 56 79 55 77 / 20 30 40 20
BROWNFIELD 55 78 55 76 / 20 30 30 20
CHILDRESS 51 73 53 76 / 20 20 20 20
SPUR 52 77 53 77 / 10 20 10 20
ASPERMONT 55 81 56 80 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
230 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ATTM WAS TO LOWER RAINFALL
INTENSITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED ATTM. 12Z
MODELS ARE COMING IN AND INITIAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS STILL REVEAL
THE SAME DIVERSE SCENARIOS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THE
RAIN...BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST AMOUNTS
AND EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF THE AMOUNTS OCCUR.
SO FAR THIS MORNING THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 24 HOUR AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A HALF
INCH /0.50/ NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE TO AROUND AN INCH /1.0/ IN SOUTH
BOSTON...TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES NEAR THE COAST WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. RADAR INDICATES THE HEAVIEST PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
STREAMING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA AND A SECONDARY AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS OVER KY/TN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
ESSENTIALLY DIVIDING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE COAST FROM THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE TN VALLEY. THE MORNING RNK SOUNDING INDICATED A DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 800-600 MB WHICH IS HELPING TO MINIMIZE RAINFALL RATES
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA ATTM...THUS THE REASON TO TRIM
BOTH THE RATES AND QPF WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE JUST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON PINWHEELING SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE COAST WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
COMBINATION OF DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AS ENERGY TRACKS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALABAMA INTO FLORIDA
AND UPSLOPE WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER WILL RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
USED THE GFS AND RAP MODELS TO TIME A BROAD BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
21Z/5PM THIS EVENING AND 12Z/8AM SATURDAY.
USED WPC GUIDANCE AS A BASIS FOR THE RAINFALL FORECAST WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS. HAVE TONED
BACK PREVIOUS FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT WILL STILL BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING IS STILL HIGH. NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCHED WERE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED WIND OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE BUT STILL WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE. SIMILAR TO PHILOSOPHY IN THE WINTER WHEN
HEADLINES ARE ISSUED BASED ON IMPACT...HAVE GONE WITH A NON
CONVENTIONAL HIGH WIND WATCH...ALSO BASED ON IMPACT SINCE WINDS
OF THAT MAGNITUDE ARE UNLIKELY.
VERY STRONG INVERSION SEEN ON 06Z SOUNDINGS AT ABOUT 2000 FT AGL WITH
PRONOUNCED LAYER OF STABLE...COOL AIR BENEATH THE INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE SHORT WAVE AXIS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP
LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. WE LOWERED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
/0.25/ FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT A HALF /0.50/ INCH ON
EASTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE TO AN INCH /1.00/
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA BLUE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF
THIS RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF LOWERING
AMOUNTS SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT (2-5 INCHES...LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE). ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL ONLY DELAY FLOOD WATERS FROM RECEDING. DESPITE SOME OF
THESE CHANGES...WE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
IS...DUE TO A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN THAT COULD CHANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN. WE ALSO ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH WINDS (10-25
MPH) WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...SATURATED GROUND...WET
FOLIAGE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD UPROOT TREES.
GENERALLY...BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT JOAQUIN
WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER ITS NOT
UNANIMOUS IN THIS VERY COMPLEX PATTERN SO WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE WOODS YET. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRACK AND
FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY MONDAY. THE MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE
AND BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA NEAR
THE BORDER IN SOUTH CAROLINA OR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...
BY MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT ONLY LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP ALONG
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LINGERING...IF ANY AT ALL...AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS MORE EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT RIVER RUNOFF ISSUES LIKELY
TO CONTINUE. OBVIOUSLY...IF JOAQUIN DOES STILL MANAGE TO GET PULLED
WEST...ALL THIS COULD CHANGE FOR MONDAY...AND CONTINUED SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WOULD BE OF
CONCERN. BUT AGAIN...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
THE ADDITIONAL GOOD NEWS IS THAT FOR THE REMINDER OF NEXT WEEK A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN....WHICH IS THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS...WITH A MUCH NEEDED DRYING PERIOD AND
APPEARANCE OF THE SUN AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE 70S AGAIN...ANY FLOOD WATERS ON RIVERS WILL RECEDE...AND
RAPIDLY GROWING GRASS CAN BE MOWED AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PERSISTENT INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. VISIBILITIES WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE PER
PERIODIC BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN. CIGS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY STABLE RANGING FROM 500 FEET TO 1500 FEET AGL.
WINDS ALOFT...3 TO 5KFT AGL ARE RATHER STRONG...OUT OF THE EAST
NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 50 KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG SURFACE
GUSTS...ESP NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE E/NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES. STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER TO MORE SHOWERY NATURE BY
SUNDAY WITH LINGERING MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO FINALLY BUILD IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A RETURN TO MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
FORECAST RAINFALL (QPF) AMOUNTS IN THE HYDROLOGIC MODELS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN REDUCED BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
THE CONSEQUENCE BEING LOWERED RIVER STAGE FORECASTS ON ALL THE MAJOR
BASINS. STILL EXPECTING 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
OCCURRING IN THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE BASINS.
THE DAN RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD ACROSS HALIFAX COUNTY BUT HAS FALLEN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FROM DANVILLE AND POINTS UPSTREAM. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL FORECAST AMOUNTS AND ALREADY HIGH STAGES THE DAN AND
LOWER ROANOKE REMAIN UNDER A FLOOD WARNING WITH RENEWED RISES
LIKELY. THE UPPER ROANOKE ABOVE SMITH MOUNTAIN STILL MAY REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RIVER IF THE CURRENT RAINFALL
FORECAST VERIFIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A RIVER
FLOOD WARNING. A SIMILAR SITUATION OBTAINS DOWNSTREAM OF SMITH
MOUNTAIN AT ALTAVISTA AND BROOKNEAL WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS
INDICATED IN THE RFC GUIDANCE BUT REDUCED CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES THE
ISSUANCE OF A WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WITH THESE LOWER QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE JAMES AND NEW RIVER BASINS
ALL RFC GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS THESE RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE EVENT. STILL FORECASTING HIGH ACTION STAGE LEVELS ON BOTH
THESE RIVERS AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH ON
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE GREENBRIER AND TENNESSEE BASIN RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE.
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY IN THIS
EVENT...ALTHOUGH THAT THREAT ALSO APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT
AS WELL. STILL WITH LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AND INTENSE
RAINFALL BANDS COULD CAUSE POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ010>020-
022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ012>020-022>024-032>035-043-045>047.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ007-009.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ005-006.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-
018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...PM
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1213 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT THURSDAY...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST ATTM WAS TO LOWER RAINFALL
INTENSITY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED ATTM. 12Z
MODELS ARE COMING IN AND INITIAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS STILL REVEAL
THE SAME DIVERSE SCENARIOS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THE
RAIN...BUT THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST AMOUNTS
AND EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST OF THE AMOUNTS OCCUR.
SO FAR THIS MORNING THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 24 HOUR AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A HALF
INCH /0.50/ NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE TO AROUND AN INCH /1.0/ IN SOUTH
BOSTON...TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES NEAR THE COAST WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. RADAR INDICATES THE HEAVIEST PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
STREAMING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA AND A SECONDARY AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS OVER KY/TN. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
ESSENTIALLY DIVIDING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE COAST FROM THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE TN VALLEY. THE MORNING RNK SOUNDING INDICATED A DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 800-600 MB WHICH IS HELPING TO MINIMIZE RAINFALL RATES
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA ATTM...THUS THE REASON TO TRIM
BOTH THE RATES AND QPF WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE JUST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON PINWHEELING SOME
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE COAST WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
COMBINATION OF DECENT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AS ENERGY TRACKS
AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM ALABAMA INTO FLORIDA
AND UPSLOPE WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER WILL RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
USED THE GFS AND RAP MODELS TO TIME A BROAD BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
21Z/5PM THIS EVENING AND 12Z/8AM SATURDAY.
USED WPC GUIDANCE AS A BASIS FOR THE RAINFALL FORECAST WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN THE FAVORABLE EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS. HAVE TONED
BACK PREVIOUS FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS BUT WILL STILL BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING IS STILL HIGH. NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCHED WERE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED WIND OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE BUT STILL WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS TO CAUSE DAMAGE. SIMILAR TO PHILOSOPHY IN THE WINTER WHEN
HEADLINES ARE ISSUED BASED ON IMPACT...HAVE GONE WITH A NON
CONVENTIONAL HIGH WIND WATCH...ALSO BASED ON IMPACT SINCE WINDS
OF THAT MAGNITUDE ARE UNLIKELY.
VERY STRONG INVERSION SEEN ON 06Z SOUNDINGS AT ABOUT 2000 FT AGL WITH
PRONOUNCED LAYER OF STABLE...COOL AIR BENEATH THE INVERSION.
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S AND LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE SHORT WAVE AXIS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP
LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. WE LOWERED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
/0.25/ FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT KEPT A HALF /0.50/ INCH ON
EASTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA BLUE RIDGE TO AN INCH /1.00/
ALONG EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA BLUE RIDGE. MAJORITY OF
THIS RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF LOWERING
AMOUNTS SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT (2-5 INCHES...LOCAL HIGHER
AMOUNTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE). ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL ONLY DELAY FLOOD WATERS FROM RECEDING. DESPITE SOME OF
THESE CHANGES...WE WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
IS...DUE TO A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN THAT COULD CHANGE...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN. WE ALSO ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH WINDS (10-25
MPH) WILL NOT REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA...SATURATED GROUND...WET
FOLIAGE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD UPROOT TREES.
GENERALLY...BETTER AGREEMENT IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT JOAQUIN
WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER ITS NOT
UNANIMOUS IN THIS VERY COMPLEX PATTERN SO WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE WOODS YET. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRACK AND
FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA BY MONDAY. THE MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE
AND BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA NEAR
THE BORDER IN SOUTH CAROLINA OR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...
BY MONDAY CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT ONLY LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP ALONG
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WILL BE LINGERING...IF ANY AT ALL...AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS MORE EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT RIVER RUNOFF ISSUES LIKELY
TO CONTINUE. OBVIOUSLY...IF JOAQUIN DOES STILL MANAGE TO GET PULLED
WEST...ALL THIS COULD CHANGE FOR MONDAY...AND CONTINUED SERIOUS
FLOODING ISSUES AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WOULD BE OF
CONCERN. BUT AGAIN...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
THE ADDITIONAL GOOD NEWS IS THAT FOR THE REMINDER OF NEXT WEEK A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN....WHICH IS THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL MODELS...WITH A MUCH NEEDED DRYING PERIOD AND
APPEARANCE OF THE SUN AGAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE 70S AGAIN...ANY FLOOD WATERS ON RIVERS WILL RECEDE...AND
RAPIDLY GROWING GRASS CAN BE MOWED AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS ADVANCING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN BEGINNING AT THE KLWB AIRPORT BY 14Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A MAJORITY OF THE
GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 18 TO 28 KNOT RANGE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE E/NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BE
GUSTY AT TIMES. STEADIER RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER TO MORE SHOWERY
NATURE BY SUNDAY WITH LINGERING MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO FINALLY BUILD IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO MORE IN THE WAY OF VFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
FORECAST RAINFALL (QPF) AMOUNTS IN THE HYDROLOGIC MODELS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN REDUCED BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH
THE CONSEQUENCE BEING LOWERED RIVER STAGE FORECASTS ON ALL THE MAJOR
BASINS. STILL EXPECTING 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST
OCCURRING IN THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE BASINS.
THE DAN RIVER REMAINS IN FLOOD ACROSS HALIFAX COUNTY BUT HAS FALLEN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FROM DANVILLE AND POINTS UPSTREAM. WITH THE
ADDITIONAL FORECAST AMOUNTS AND ALREADY HIGH STAGES THE DAN AND
LOWER ROANOKE REMAIN UNDER A FLOOD WARNING WITH RENEWED RISES
LIKELY. THE UPPER ROANOKE ABOVE SMITH MOUNTAIN STILL MAY REACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE RIVER IF THE CURRENT RAINFALL
FORECAST VERIFIES BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A RIVER
FLOOD WARNING. A SIMILAR SITUATION OBTAINS DOWNSTREAM OF SMITH
MOUNTAIN AT ALTAVISTA AND BROOKNEAL WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS
INDICATED IN THE RFC GUIDANCE BUT REDUCED CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES THE
ISSUANCE OF A WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WITH THESE LOWER QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE JAMES AND NEW RIVER BASINS
ALL RFC GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS THESE RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE EVENT. STILL FORECASTING HIGH ACTION STAGE LEVELS ON BOTH
THESE RIVERS AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MAINTAIN A CLOSE WATCH ON
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE GREENBRIER AND TENNESSEE BASIN RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE.
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY IN THIS
EVENT...ALTHOUGH THAT THREAT ALSO APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT
AS WELL. STILL WITH LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AND INTENSE
RAINFALL BANDS COULD CAUSE POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR VAZ010>020-
022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ012>020-022>024-032>035-043-045>047.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR VAZ007-009.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR NCZ005-006.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ001>004-
018>020.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...AMS/CF
HYDROLOGY...PC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR. SUBSIDENCE
UNDERNEATH SURFACE RIDGE ARE PRODUCING MOSTLY TO SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE TEMPERATURES AND FROST POTENTIAL.
THE 02.12Z GFS/NAM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING SURFACE RIDGE
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST CAN BE EXPECTED TO FORM
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...PATCHY FROST WILL FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS
EXPECTED TO WRAP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA PER THE 02.12Z GFS/NAM 925 AND 850MB RH FIELDS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LATEST 02.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SATURATION FROM NEAR THE SURFACE TO AROUND 850MB OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 09Z MONDAY. VERTICAL
MOTION WEAK NEAR THE SURFACE TO 850MB OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE
02.12Z MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBLE DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF DRIZZLE OUT
OF THE FORECAST.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS MONDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE 02.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE 02.12Z GFS/ECMWF IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN PUSHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE 02.12Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
02.12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINIMAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH ATMOSPHERE COLUMN DRY AND SURFACE
RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL CONTINUE DRY
WEATHER ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015
EXPECT THE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
KEEP SKIES SKC-SCT WITH NO IMPACTS TO VSBYS. MARGINAL LLWS TONIGHT
WITH RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MID 30 KTS BY 1400 FT AT
KLSE/KRST BETWEEN 03-09Z. GOING TO KEEP OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-
042>044.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM....DTJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1140 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
AREA RADAR SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS
MORNINGS FORECAST. ALSO...WYDOT WEBCAMS TO THE WEST OF CHEYENNE
SHOWING VERY DENSE FOG CONTINUING AS OF 8 AM THIS MORNING. WENT
AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON TIME TODAY.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING WE MAY STAY DOWN ALL DAY IN STRATUS
AND FOG. CERTAINLY BY NOON THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES. WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER THIS MORNING AND ADJUST AS
NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE. WYDOT WEBCAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW EXTREMELY LOW
VISIBILITIES AROUND VEDAUWOO...AND RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE
INDICATED OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS AROUND ONE QUARTER OF A MILE AT KCYS
AS WELL. STRONG LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE AS EVIDENCED BY SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S OVER THE PLAINS. DO NOT SEE ANY REASON FOR
FOG TO LIFT ANYTIME SOON...SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADZY
FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD INTO KCYS.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS AM. THIS WILL
BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ATOP PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW
IN THE LOW LEVELS. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE IN
EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS
COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL
HAIL. IT IS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST A THREAT FOR CONVECTION
WILL EXIST TODAY WITH SUCH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY...BUT WE
ARE DEALING WITH A COOL/DYNAMIC SYSTEM SO BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES VIRTUALLY ANYWHERE.
INTRODUCED CATEGORICAL POPS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT ALONG AND E
OF A CHEYENNE WYO TO HARRISON NEB LINE. THE NAM/GFS/ECM/GEM ARE ALL
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN H25 JET AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LIFTING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THAT TIME WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AT 700 MILLIBARS. THIS SHOULD BE
A GREAT SETUP FOR A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD...HEAVIER RAIN AS THE
BEST MID-LEVEL PVA WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS WELL. MODELED QPF FIELDS
ARE PLENTY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. STILL LOOKS LIKE A RATHER WARM
SYSTEM WITH MOST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW H7 TEMPS WARMER THAN +2 C
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND WET BULB EFFECTS...
IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET IN THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. SHOULD BE VERY LOW IMPACT THOUGH. IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT AM WITH A SIMILAR LOW-LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINING INTACT.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A RAW DAY WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIP COMBINING
WITH COOL THERMAL PROFILES BENEATH THE UPPER LOW (H7 TEMPS LESS THAN
6 DEG C ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA) TO EFFECTIVELY KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S ACROSS A LARGE CHUNK OF THE AREA. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT
15 KTS OR SO GIVEN A TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. EXPECT DECREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN
ON SUNDAY AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH
AND WIND FIELDS WOULD SUGGEST YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND
LOW STRATUS ON SUNDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY WITH THE POSITION
OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL EXIST
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
TO START THE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES APPEAR BY MID WEEK
AS THE GFS LIFTS THE TROUGH EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CO/NM...WHILE THE
ECMWF SLOWS AND STALLS THE LOW OVER THE NM/WEST TX BORDER.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH EASTERN CO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE MONDAY. DIFFLEUNT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND UPPER JET SUPPORT WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME WILL
AVERAGE FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE DEPARTURE
OF THE TROUGH AND EASTERN CO SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PERSIST OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WY INCLUDING
KCYS THROUGH 21Z...WITH MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
WESTERN NE PANHANDLE. NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT CONDITIONS WILL
DRASTICALLY IMPROVE AT KCYS TODAY WITH OBS SHOWING ONE QUARTER MILE
AND FOG AT CHEYENNE AIRPORT AT 1730Z. CONDITION MAY NOT IMPROVE TO
MVFR EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS SOME RAINFALL
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO AND
EASTERN WYOMING. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KT WILL
PREVAIL. LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REDEVELOP THIS EVENING EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 02Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2015
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A MUCH COOLER AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET. ALTHOUGH WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WYZ116>118.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLH