Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/01/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
910 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
THE WEAK RAIN SHOWERS THAT WERE MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS AND ONTO
THE PLAINS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED WITH SKIES
TRENDING TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
THE SHOWERS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS
IS GOING TO PERSIST ON THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRODUCE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO NO CHANGES THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MOUNTAINS AS EXPECTED...
AND A FEW OF THESE WILL BE DRIFTING ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL CAPES AROUND 200 J/KG. THERE IS AN UPPER
LEVEL JET MAX JUST TO OUR NORTH...SO A FEW SHOWERS COULD SPREAD A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING SO ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. HRRR COVERAGE SEEMS TOO HIGH...BUT RAP13 LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN THE RATHER DRY/STABLE AIRMASS.
WITH REGARD TO PLAINS STRATUS AND FOG...LOOK LIKE A VERY SIMILAR
SETUP TO LAST NIGHT WITH FOG POTENTIALLY WRAPPING BACK TO GREELEY
AND LOVELAND/FORT COLLINS AREA BY DAYBREAK.
ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH WARMING ALOFT...SHOULD BE SOME SUPPRESSION OF
CONVECTION BUT STILL ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING FOR A FEW LATE DAY
STORMS. PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED TODAY AND CLOSE
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EXCEPTION WOULD BE OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE STRATUS IS MORE PERSISTENT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
WEST COAST MOVING INLAND. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
HELP TO BRING SURFACE WINDS MORE SE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL AID
IN THE FORMATION OF A DENVER CYCLONE AND SUBSEQUENT CONVERGENCE
AREA SSE OF DENVER. INCREASING MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD
FROM THE MID LEVEL SW FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO INCREASE INSTABILITY
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT SHEAR INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
STRONG STORMS FRIDAY TO INCLUDE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THE CONVECTION WILL TURN TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWING NORTHWARD OVER
WYOMING BRINGING SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT BY THE AFTERNOON ENDING SHOWERS
BUT WITH LINGERING HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE BEHIND IT CLOUDS WILL
STICK AROUND KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID 60S WITH 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS ENOUGH FOR AREAS ABOVE 10,000 FT
POSSIBLY SEEING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED HOWEVER.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT BRINGING
RIDGING OVER NE COLORADO AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO A WARMER MORE SW DIRECTION BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY AND KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRIER WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
FOR TUESDAY THE LATEST GFS AND EC MODEL RUNS ARE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT
OF CANADA. BOTH MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND BRING
IT EAST OVER UTAH AND INTO NW COLORADO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS SOLUTION BUT BOTH BRING
PRECIPITATION TO NE COLORADO AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW TO SEE HOW THE
NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS PLAY OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE DENVER METRO AREA AIRPORTS
THROUGH THURSDAY. FARTHER NORTH...KFNL AND KGXY WILL BE ON THE
EDGE OF FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET
AGL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 1/4SM VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOURS
BETWEEM 10Z AND 16Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
705 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
GENERATED A QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BASED ON LATEST RADAR COMBINED WITH RUC QPF TRENDS.
CONVERSELY...INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WHICH WAS FAR MORE EXTENSIVE THAN REPRESENTED IN GRIDDED
DATA FIELDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
ENERGY AND A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO STREAM
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA TODAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THEN NORTH...AND SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
THESE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DAY
HEATS UP. THEN AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING.
ON THURSDAY A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SHIFT
INLAND NUDGING THE UPPER RIDGE TO EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
AS A RESULT...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY. HOWEVER GUSTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME
THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET...BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON THU...BUT
THIS WILL BE OUR LAST DAY OF LATE SUMMER-LIKE READINGS.
THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE
MODELS INDICATE A DRY SLOT WILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE
NIGHT...SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TOWARDS MORNING. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
WHILE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR NORTHWEST CORNER BY AROUND
MID-MORNING...AND INTO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW WITH THE LOW
CENTER OVER THE WY/UT/CO TRIPLE POINT AT 03Z PER THE 12Z NAM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF...AND THE CENTRAL CO
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE BEST ACTIVITY FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT
SAID...REINFORCING ENERGY WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL WY THROUGH SAT FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...SO
ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANY SNOW.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE LOADED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY SAT. THE MID TERM MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE PATH THIS STRONG CUT OFF LOW WILL TAKE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN ANY CASE TROUGHINESS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD KEEPING POSSIBLE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY FALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502M MDT WED SEP 30 2015
MOISTURE STREAMING THROUGH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT
AIRPORTS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR COULD SEE BRIEF
LIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS UNLIKELY TO REDUCE
CEILINGS BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS OR VISIBILITY BELOW VFR LEVELS.
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS MIXING
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AROUND MIDDAY. DAYTIME WARMING IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AIRPORTS
ARE UNLIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1152 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS TO THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE RATON
RIDGE...WHILE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE. EXPECT THIS AREA OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE TO CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER NIGHT...LIKELY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOZLEY
UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
UPDATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON FRONTAL TRENDS AND
THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS. FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE...INITIALLY
WITH THE FRONT AND THEN SPREADING EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
...COOLER WEATHER MOVING INTO THE REGION...
CURRENTLY...
COOL FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ON KPUX AT 3 PM RUNNING
NEARLY E-W FROM JUST N OF KPUB TO JUST N OF EADS. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH WHILE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY EASTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED. A LINE OF WEAK CUMULUS WERE
NOTED WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS W WY/NW CO THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL BRING THE FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS LATER TODAY
AND INTO THIS EVENING.
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS VARY ON INTENSITY AND
LOCATION...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE SOME
ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING GENERALLY N OF HIGHWAY 50.
HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A CLUSTER OF WEAK
STORMS FORMING UP IN EL PASO COUNTY AND THEN DROPPING EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HRRR HAS BEEN HANGING ONTO THIS
SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL RUNS...BUT BELIEVE IT MAY BE OVERDONE AS
COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE.
AS FOR CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT WE WILL SEE A BROKEN DECK
DEVELOP BUT BELIEVE ANY CIG WILL MAINLY BE A MID LVL DECK AS PER
SOUNDINGS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS UP IN N EL PASO COUNTY
AND MAYBE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY NE WINDS DEVELOP SOON OVER THE EL
PASO/PUEBLO COUNTY REGION AND LAST INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT
SURGES SOUTH.
TOMORROW...
MOS PRODUCTS SHOW RATHER HIGH POPS TOMORROW ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND FORCING...PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT I AM A BIT HESITANT
ON GOING AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE. FOR NOW PAINTED THE GREATER I-25
CORRIDOR REGION IN SCATTERED POPS WITH MORE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE RATON MESA REGION
AS FOR TIMING...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION...AND THE AREA OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE
AS IT MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DOWN THE S MTN RANGE.
THE BIG NEWS TOMORROW WILL BE THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO THE AREA...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS
N EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL AS COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET INTO THE LARGER
VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION
TOMORROW. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO NEW
MEXICO. MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR NORTH.
BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AND
HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS WITH DEW
POINTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH FORECAST 500MB WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS. SHORTWAVE
APPEARS TO BE LACKING WHICH CAN HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION...GIVEN THE WEAKER AUTUMN SOLAR HEATING. HAVE SOME
ISOLATED POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS TO DEVELOP.
.THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR A DRY AND WARM
DAY.
.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BEST FORCING WILL MOSTLY BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE LOW. THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED STARTING SATURDAY. EC AND
CANADIAN HAVE THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY. A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
MONDAY. THIS IS A WARMER SOLUTION WITH MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
MARTY MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE GFS LACKS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
AND IT HAS AN UPPER LOW STALLING OVER COLORADO. THIS WOULD PROVIDE
A MUCH COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION. WPC SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE THE
BLEND OF THE TWO AND PREDICTABILITY IS BELOW AVERAGE. CR EXTENDED
GRIDS ARE A DECENT COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND ONLY
TWEAKED THE GRIDS FOR CONSISTENCY. WITH A TROUGH NEARBY...THIS
WEEKEND COULD BE COOLER WITH MORE AUTUMN LIKE TEMPERATURES.
--PGW--
--PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AT THE
KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS TUESDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE EAST WITH
VFR CIGS AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY AFTER...WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE EVENING
HOURS THOUGH IFR STRATUS LOOKS PROBABLE JUST BEYOND 06Z TUES.
KALS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK AT
TIMES...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
UPDATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON FRONTAL TRENDS AND
THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS. FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE...INITIALLY
WITH THE FRONT AND THEN SPREADING EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
...COOLER WEATHER MOVING INTO THE REGION...
CURRENTLY...
COOL FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ON KPUX AT 3 PM RUNNING
NEARLY E-W FROM JUST N OF KPUB TO JUST N OF EADS. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH WHILE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY EASTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED. A LINE OF WEAK CUMULUS WERE
NOTED WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS W WY/NW CO THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL BRING THE FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS LATER TODAY
AND INTO THIS EVENING.
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS VARY ON INTENSITY AND
LOCATION...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE SOME
ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING GENERALLY N OF HIGHWAY 50.
HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A CLUSTER OF WEAK
STORMS FORMING UP IN EL PASO COUNTY AND THEN DROPPING EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HRRR HAS BEEN HANGING ONTO THIS
SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL RUNS...BUT BELIEVE IT MAY BE OVERDONE AS
COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE.
AS FOR CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT WE WILL SEE A BROKEN DECK
DEVELOP BUT BELIEVE ANY CIG WILL MAINLY BE A MID LVL DECK AS PER
SOUNDINGS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS UP IN N EL PASO COUNTY
AND MAYBE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY NE WINDS DEVELOP SOON OVER THE EL
PASO/PUEBLO COUNTY REGION AND LAST INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT
SURGES SOUTH.
TOMORROW...
MOS PRODUCTS SHOW RATHER HIGH POPS TOMORROW ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND FORCING...PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT I AM A BIT HESITANT
ON GOING AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE. FOR NOW PAINTED THE GREATER I-25
CORRIDOR REGION IN SCATTERED POPS WITH MORE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE RATON MESA REGION
AS FOR TIMING...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION...AND THE AREA OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE
AS IT MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DOWN THE S MTN RANGE.
THE BIG NEWS TOMORROW WILL BE THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO THE AREA...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS
N EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL AS COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET INTO THE LARGER
VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION
TOMORROW. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO NEW
MEXICO. MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR NORTH.
BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AND
HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS WITH DEW
POINTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH FORECAST 500MB WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS. SHORTWAVE
APPEARS TO BE LACKING WHICH CAN HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION...GIVEN THE WEAKER AUTUMN SOLAR HEATING. HAVE SOME
ISOLATED POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS TO DEVELOP.
.THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR A DRY AND WARM
DAY.
.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BEST FORCING WILL MOSTLY BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE LOW. THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED STARTING SATURDAY. EC AND
CANADIAN HAVE THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY. A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
MONDAY. THIS IS A WARMER SOLUTION WITH MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
MARTY MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE GFS LACKS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
AND IT HAS AN UPPER LOW STALLING OVER COLORADO. THIS WOULD PROVIDE
A MUCH COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION. WPC SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE THE
BLEND OF THE TWO AND PREDICTABILITY IS BELOW AVERAGE. CR EXTENDED
GRIDS ARE A DECENT COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND ONLY
TWEAKED THE GRIDS FOR CONSISTENCY. WITH A TROUGH NEARBY...THIS
WEEKEND COULD BE COOLER WITH MORE AUTUMN LIKE TEMPERATURES.
--PGW--
--PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AT THE
KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS TUESDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE EAST WITH
VFR CIGS AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY AFTER...WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE EVENING
HOURS THOUGH IFR STRATUS LOOKS PROBABLE JUST BEYOND 06Z TUES.
KALS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK AT
TIMES...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
730 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND STALL
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT
THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
STRONG COASTAL NORTHEAST WINDS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THESE
THREATS MAY PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK AND TIMING OF JOAQUIN...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...
MADE SEVERAL TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO THE TIMING OF RAINFALL EXITING SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN REASONABLE
CONSISTENT...AND MATCH UP THE BEST WITH REGIONAL RADAR DATA.
STARTED WITH THAT PROGRESSION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN
ADJUSTED FROM THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR RADAR DATA.
TRIED TO TREND TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. ALREADY SEEING DEW POINTS LESS THAN 50 DEGREES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN MA. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT FOG
POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. LATEST LAMP AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF ON REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG...DESPITE THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL
EARLIER TODAY. SINCE BOTH ARE GFS BASED...THERE MIGHT BE A BIAS
THERE. SUSPECT WINDS WILL BE TOO STRONG...KEEPING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS THE COOLER...DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
NORTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID
40S TO THE MID 50S OVERNIGHT. OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RADIATING COMPLETELY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH THE NOW VERY MOIST GROUND AND DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 50S
CURRENTLY. HOWEVER...THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WHEN IT
COMES TO THE FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS KEEPS THE REGION IN THE COLDER...DRIER AIR FOR THE MOST PART.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WHERE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN THE DEEPER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND MOVING POSSIBLY AS
FAR NORTHWARD AS THE MASS PIKE. THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP CUTOFF
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN WITH DRY WEATHER N OF THE PIKE.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND A STRONG REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MORE HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST WITH STRONG COASTAL NE WINDS
* MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE HIGH TIDES THU INTO FRI
* WEATHER IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND WILL DEPEND OF THE TRACK OF JOAQUIN
OVERVIEW...
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK AS NORTH
ATLANTIC BLOCKING RIDGE KEEPS A FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. WHILE AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH THIS
FRONT...ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE PLUME WILL EXTEND ACROSS SE NEW
ENGLAND WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL NE FLOW WHICH REACHES +3 TO
+4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. THE RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS WEEKEND...THE FORECAST ALL COMES DOWN TO
THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF JOAQUIN. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SPREAD IN THE TRACK FORECAST AMONG GLOBAL AND TROPICAL MODELS. THE
LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS ITS TRACK OUT TO SEA. THIS IS LIKELY
AN OUTLIER GIVEN STRONG DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. CONSENSUS OF THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE STILL FAVORS A TURN TO THE NW WITH LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST FROM NC TO SOUTHERN NJ LATE
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOW FAR NORTH JOAQUIN GETS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
DETERMINING OUR WEATHER. AT THE VERY LEAST IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER
PULSE OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY COASTAL WINDS MAY AFFECT OUR REGION
AT SOME TIME THIS WEEKEND. BUT THERE IS STILL LOW PREDICTABILITY
AS TO THE DETAILS AND THE EXTENT OF RAIN AND WIND.
DAILIES...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
A REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF OUR REGION WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING NE FLOW.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK NORTH INTO OUR REGION...ALONG WITH
SOME RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD. GIVEN A DECENT NORTHEAST
WIND...WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL TO MAKE IT AL THE WAY INTO NORTHEAST
MA...LEAVING NORTHWEST MA THE DRIEST...BUT NOT NECESSARILY DRY.
LOW LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES REMAIN 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL...SO WE HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THU THROUGH FRI WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM 1-2 INCHES ACROSS RI AND SE MA...WITH LOCALLY 3 INCH AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE.
GUSTY NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WINDS. GOOD MIXING SUPPORTS GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH NEAR THE COAST WITH
HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE ISLANDS WHERE WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY...FORECAST DEPENDS ON TRACK OF JOAQUIN AND
WHERE IT MAKES LANDFALL. WE DO EXPECT ANOTHER PULSE OF HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS AT SOME POINT. BUT DETAILS ON TIMING AND MAGNITUDE
OF RAIN AND WIND REMAINS VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST PERIOD...WITH MORE
OF A LULL LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MAGNITUDE OF COASTAL
WIND WILL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE JOAQUIN TRACKS TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TONIGHT...EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVERALL...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. EXCEPTION
WOULD BE TOWARD THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST...CLOSER TO
THE STALLED FRONT. COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS
THESE AREAS. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTH COAST IN DEVELOPING RAIN. NE WIND
GUSTS 25-30 KTS ALONG THE COAST.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST. NE WIND GUSTS TO
25-35 KT...HIGHEST ACROSS SE COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. GUSTS TO 40 KT
POSSIBLE AT KACK. LONGER DURATION DRIER SPELLS POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND. WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON PROGRESS OF JOAQUIN...AND HOW IT
INTERACTS WITH A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PLETHORA OF HAZARDS ON THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...LIKELY GUSTING 25-30 KTS. PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE RESULTED IN
SEAS INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THE
COMBINATION OF SEAS AND WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY OF THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR THOSE HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.
EXPECT PERSISTENT NE WINDS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. STRONGEST GUSTS
TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GALE WATCHES AND
WARNING HAVE EXPANDED DURING THIS PERIOD. SEAS BUILD TO 12-15 FT
OVER THE OUTER WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI.
MAGNITUDE OF WINDS AND SEAS THIS WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON TRACK OF
JOAQUIN WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE. EXPECT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VSBYS...ESPECIALLY LATE THU
THROUGH FRI. MORE RAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THU...STIFFENING NE FLOW TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE REFLECTED IN
AN INCREASING STORM SURGE ALONG THE MA E COAST...PROBABLY RISING
TO BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 FEET BY THE THU AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THE
POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURE IN ADDITION TO A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE MA E COAST WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF THE THU AFTERNOON
HIGH TIDE. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING JUST OFFSHORE TO PERHAPS 10 TO 13
FEET BY THE TIME OF THE THU AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. DUE TO SOME WAVE
ACTION AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH WATER LEVELS...SOME EROSION IS
LIKELY...ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERIZED AS SEVERE.
THU NIGHT...ANTICIPATE THE 1.0 TO 1.5 SURGE TO PERSIST ALONG THE
MA E COAST BUT THE THU NIGHT ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS NOT AS
HIGH AS THE AFTERNOON TIDE AND ANTICIPATE JUST A FEW POCKETS OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
FRI...PERSISTENT NE FLOW MAY CAUSE THE SURGE TO RISE A TAD MORE
AND BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.7 FEET ALONG THE MA E COAST
DURING THE FRI AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THIS ON TOP OF THE HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AND WAVES OF 10 TO 15 FEET JUST OFFSHORE MAY
CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE
REACHES OF THE MA EAST COAST. THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE WE
WILL NEED TO EXTEND THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO FRI AFTERNOON
FOR THE E COAST.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES GRADUALLY LOWER
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT A PERSISTENT NE OR E FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
SURGE AROUND OR PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN 1.5 FEET ALONG THE E
COAST. IN ADDITION...A SHIFT IN SURFACE FLOW TO BE MORE FROM THE
E OR EVEN ESE IN ADDITION TO THE ARRIVAL OF SWELLS FROM JOAQUIN
MAY SERVE TO INCREASE THE SURGE ALONG SOME S COAST AREAS ENOUGH
FOR THE RISK OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THERE. HOW
MUCH OF AN IMPACT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
JOAQUIN.
DATE / BOSTON HIGHEST TIDE / TIME
THURSDAY OCTOBER 1 / 12.0 FEET / 2:17 PM
FRIDAY OCTOBER 2 / 11.5 FEET / 3:30 PM
SATURDAY OCTOBER 3 / 11.0 FEET / 4:06 PM
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232-
233-235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-231-236-
251.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ234.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-
254.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ251.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ255-
256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TOMORROW...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT...
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1248 AM EDT...ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE SHOWERS ARE FORMING WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT...AND A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT. THE
KENX RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS PASSING
OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS.
THIS IS DUE TO THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE PCPN FROM THESE
SHOWERS...AND WE HAVE JUST ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST 00Z RAOB
FROM KALY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE 700
HPA...BUT FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE REGION INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHC AND LIKELY
VALUES IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE A MUCH MORE HUMID NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS WITH SFC DEWPTS CREEPING UP INTO THE
U50S TO M60S. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWER TO M60S...EXCEPT SOME U50S OVER THE SRN
GREENS...N-CNTRL BERKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
MORNING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
EVENING...AND THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START TO BECOMING LIGHTER IN INTENSITY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PWATS RISE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG H10-H8 THETA E RIDGE ALSO IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES ARE 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR ALBANY
SHOWING A RANGE OF 1.5 TO 4.5 INCHES WITH A CLUSTERING AROUND 2.5
INCHES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH QPF VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 3
INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
TUESDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE AS THE AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE FA. STILL WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND CHANCE POPS NORTH. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.
THURSDAY AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. IT WILL BE A
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS WET AND UNSETTLED WITH
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC PATTERN FOR PERIODS OF RAINFALL BASED ON THE MEDIUM
RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...AND THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THERE
IS A GENERAL SHIFT TO A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS
IN THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SURGES OF ATLANTIC AND GULF
MOISTURE POSSIBLE.
OUR FCST CONTINUES THE TREND OF LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATEST
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN...SUPERBLEND AND THE WPC GUIDANCE STARTING THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED H500 CLOSED OR CUTOFF LOW WILL
LIKELY BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. A STRONG H250 JET WILL
BE NEAR THE EAST COAST...A STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST OFF THE COAST.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE ADVANCING N/NE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE EC/WPC/CAN GGEM/GEFS INDICATE ONE SHORT-WAVE
WILL MOVE IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL.
PWAT VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE LATEST
GEFS ARE 1 TO 2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS DOES EVENTUALLY
BRING SOME RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON...AS A SFC
WAVE/FORMER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE /POSSIBLY TD-11/MAY MOVE N/NE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. OVERALL...HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF
THE FCST AREA THU NIGHT...AND CHC POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH CHC POPS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN
DACKS WHERE SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE USED FOR THE RAINFALL ON FRI. LOWS
THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH MID AND U40S OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S ON FRI WITH THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN. EXPECT A FEW U40S OVER THE HIGH
PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.
FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A WET AND UNSETTLED WEEKEND IS LIKELY WITH
THE H500 LONG-WAVE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH FOCUSING PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS ARE INDICATING PWAT ANOMALIES OF
1 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V WIND ANOMALIES/
OF 1 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEAR EXTREME ERN NY AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND. DEEP TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC IS LIKELY. A WAVE OR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT ENHANCING THE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SAT/SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SFC WAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
ACTUALLY...THE ECMWF IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS HERE WITH SFC
WAVE OR TROPICAL SYSTEM BEING CAPTURED BY AN H500 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND JUST HAS SOME
OVER RUNNING MOISTURE IN THE NY/NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR WITH SOME
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF WOULD
BRING THE CUTOFF LOW TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHC POPS FOR RAIN FRI
NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...AND THEN LOWERED TO LOWER CHC POPS ON
SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECASTING EXACT TIMING HERE.
ALSO...DURING THIS STRETCH OF FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE PROBS FOR 2 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE IN 24 HRS
ARE STILL UNDER 30 PERCENT FROM THE LATEST GEFS FOR MOST OF THE FCST
AREA /FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT/. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN
THE CLOUDY AND WET REGIME WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND U40S
WITH SOME U30S TO L40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS ON SAT WILL
BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE MID AND U50S...WITH SUNDAY BEING
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH M50S TO L60S POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ON AN OPTIMISTIC NOTE...THE LATEST
GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES A DRYING TREND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM OH VALLEY AND SE CANADA.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT ON THE 12Z GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF
WOULD KEEP IT WET AND UNSETTLED WITH THE CUTOFF OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTHEAST WITH SCT SHOWERS. IN THE FCST GRIDS...WE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. TEMPS TREND TO EARLY OCTOBER SEASONAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SPOTTY RAIN DEVELOPING AND TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NY...WITH GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXCEPT FOR KPSF
WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED. AS DEEP MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...SO WILL HAVE TO RELY ON
DATA AND GUIDANCE TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND AT WHAT LEVEL CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP...WITH OPTIONS TO AMEND IF CEIILNGS IN REALITY
DEVELOP AT A DIFFERENT HEIGHT.
CURRENT VFR SHOULD BECOME MVFR BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN BEGINNING AT KGFL AND KALB BY OR AROUND SUNRISE. RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN AROUND KPSF AND KPOU SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE INTO MID MORNING.
INDICATING GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO BORDERLINE IFR BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING VISIBILITIES AS
RAIN BECOMES STEADIER. INDICATING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BELOW 1000
FEET ALSO...TO SUGGEST THAT LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET IF TRENDS SUPPORT THOSE
CONDITIONS LATER TODAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 5 KT AT KGFL...KPSF
AND KPOU THROUGH SUNRISE BUT SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KT AT KALB. SOUTH
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNON AT KALB...BUT 10 KT OR LESS AT
KGFL...KPSF AND KPOU...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 6 KT AT ALL SITES
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT... BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...DROP TO 65 TO 85 PERCENT ON TUESDAY...RECOVER TO 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DROP TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...SOUTH AT
5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY...VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. A MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SLOW-
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT.
RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALL
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RISING WITH THE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT
APPEARS A SOAKING RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR 4+ INCHES IN SOME AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL FORECASTS WILL BE REFINED AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.
THE LATEST USGS STREAMFLOW DATA SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE REPORTING STREAMFLOW LEVELS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL LEVELS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE LOCAL
AREA IN THE D0 CATEGORY...ABNORMALLY DRY. SO MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR POTENTIAL RAPID RISES ON THE SMALLER/FLASHY RIVERS/STREAMS AS
RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL RAINFALL RATES. MMEFS ANALYSIS FROM
THE SREF HAS ROSENDALE...WILLIAMSTOWN...EAGLE BRIDGE AND
ROCKINGHAM HAVING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD
STAGE THROUGH 18Z ON THE 1ST OF OCTOBER. IT ALSO HAS COLD BROOK
AND PRATTSVILLE WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING ACTION
STAGE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...LFM/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1248 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TOMORROW...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT...
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1248 AM EDT...ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE SHOWERS ARE FORMING WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT...AND A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT. THE
KENX RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS PASSING
OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS.
THIS IS DUE TO THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE PCPN FROM THESE
SHOWERS...AND WE HAVE JUST ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST 00Z RAOB
FROM KALY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE 700
HPA...BUT FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE REGION INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHC AND LIKELY
VALUES IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE A MUCH MORE HUMID NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS WITH SFC DEWPTS CREEPING UP INTO THE
U50S TO M60S. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWER TO M60S...EXCEPT SOME U50S OVER THE SRN
GREENS...N-CNTRL BERKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
MORNING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
EVENING...AND THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START TO BECOMING LIGHTER IN INTENSITY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PWATS RISE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG H10-H8 THETA E RIDGE ALSO IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES ARE 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR ALBANY
SHOWING A RANGE OF 1.5 TO 4.5 INCHES WITH A CLUSTERING AROUND 2.5
INCHES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH QPF VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 3
INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
TUESDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE AS THE AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE FA. STILL WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND CHANCE POPS NORTH. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.
THURSDAY AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. IT WILL BE A
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS WET AND UNSETTLED WITH
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC PATTERN FOR PERIODS OF RAINFALL BASED ON THE MEDIUM
RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...AND THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THERE
IS A GENERAL SHIFT TO A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS
IN THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SURGES OF ATLANTIC AND GULF
MOISTURE POSSIBLE.
OUR FCST CONTINUES THE TREND OF LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATEST
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN...SUPERBLEND AND THE WPC GUIDANCE STARTING THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED H500 CLOSED OR CUTOFF LOW WILL
LIKELY BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. A STRONG H250 JET WILL
BE NEAR THE EAST COAST...A STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST OFF THE COAST.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE ADVANCING N/NE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE EC/WPC/CAN GGEM/GEFS INDICATE ONE SHORT-WAVE
WILL MOVE IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL.
PWAT VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE LATEST
GEFS ARE 1 TO 2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS DOES EVENTUALLY
BRING SOME RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON...AS A SFC
WAVE/FORMER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE /POSSIBLY TD-11/MAY MOVE N/NE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. OVERALL...HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF
THE FCST AREA THU NIGHT...AND CHC POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH CHC POPS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN
DACKS WHERE SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE USED FOR THE RAINFALL ON FRI. LOWS
THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH MID AND U40S OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S ON FRI WITH THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN. EXPECT A FEW U40S OVER THE HIGH
PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.
FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A WET AND UNSETTLED WEEKEND IS LIKELY WITH
THE H500 LONG-WAVE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH FOCUSING PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS ARE INDICATING PWAT ANOMALIES OF
1 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V WIND ANOMALIES/
OF 1 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEAR EXTREME ERN NY AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND. DEEP TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC IS LIKELY. A WAVE OR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT ENHANCING THE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SAT/SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SFC WAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
ACTUALLY...THE ECMWF IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS HERE WITH SFC
WAVE OR TROPICAL SYSTEM BEING CAPTURED BY AN H500 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND JUST HAS SOME
OVER RUNNING MOISTURE IN THE NY/NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR WITH SOME
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF WOULD
BRING THE CUTOFF LOW TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHC POPS FOR RAIN FRI
NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...AND THEN LOWERED TO LOWER CHC POPS ON
SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECASTING EXACT TIMING HERE.
ALSO...DURING THIS STRETCH OF FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE PROBS FOR 2 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE IN 24 HRS
ARE STILL UNDER 30 PERCENT FROM THE LATEST GEFS FOR MOST OF THE FCST
AREA /FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT/. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN
THE CLOUDY AND WET REGIME WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND U40S
WITH SOME U30S TO L40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS ON SAT WILL
BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE MID AND U50S...WITH SUNDAY BEING
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH M50S TO L60S POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ON AN OPTIMISTIC NOTE...THE LATEST
GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES A DRYING TREND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM OH VALLEY AND SE CANADA.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT ON THE 12Z GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF
WOULD KEEP IT WET AND UNSETTLED WITH THE CUTOFF OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTHEAST WITH SCT SHOWERS. IN THE FCST GRIDS...WE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. TEMPS TREND TO EARLY OCTOBER SEASONAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SOME CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. IT WILL NOT BE
A WIDESPREAD RAIN AS WE GO PAST 12Z TUESDAY WITH THE MOISTURE OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME
AT KGFL WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS WE GO PAST 18Z AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...AND WITH KGFL IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BEST
CHANCES OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST AT AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF KALB.
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL DETERIORATE AS WE GO PAST 18Z AS
OVC SKIES AND MORE STEADY RAINFALL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO
SE APPROACHING THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO START THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN PICK UP OUT OF
THE SE-SW BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT... BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...DROP TO 65 TO 85 PERCENT ON TUESDAY...RECOVER TO 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DROP TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...SOUTH AT
5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY...VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. A MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SLOW-
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT.
RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALL
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RISING WITH THE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT
APPEARS A SOAKING RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR 4+ INCHES IN SOME AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL FORECASTS WILL BE REFINED AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.
THE LATEST USGS STREAMFLOW DATA SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE REPORTING STREAMFLOW LEVELS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL LEVELS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE LOCAL
AREA IN THE D0 CATEGORY...ABNORMALLY DRY. SO MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR POTENTIAL RAPID RISES ON THE SMALLER/FLASHY RIVERS/STREAMS AS
RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL RAINFALL RATES. MMEFS ANALYSIS FROM
THE SREF HAS ROSENDALE...WILLIAMSTOWN...EAGLE BRIDGE AND
ROCKINGHAM HAVING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD
STAGE THROUGH 18Z ON THE 1ST OF OCTOBER. IT ALSO HAS COLD BROOK
AND PRATTSVILLE WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING ACTION
STAGE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...LFM/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE STALLING OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM JOAQUIN...CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS...IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVEL NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST DURING THE
WEEK, POSSIBLY REACHING THE OFFSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO NORTH
CAROLINA BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
3 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED EASTWARD
INTO WRN NY AND NW PA, STRETCHING BACK INTO THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BUT
ITS RIDGE AXIS STILL EXTENDED WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH IS FINALLY LOSING ITS GRIP OVER OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY MOISTENED THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS WERE IN
THE LOW 70S AND SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL BLENDED PWATS WERE AROUND 2
INCHES.
THERE WERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLIER IN THE DAY, ALLOWING
FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE REACHED AND SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THESE
SHOWERS HAVE BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY LIFT NORTHWARD THRU THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. USED THE HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY TO HELP
POPULATE POP GRIDS THRU 00Z AS THE GUIDANCE ACCURATELY PREDICTED
THESE INITIAL SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO OUR
WEST. THE STEADY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD,
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS WELL.
IN COLLABORATION WITH WPC/MARFC, FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
LOWERED SLIGHTLY AS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN FROM 12Z GUIDANCE HAD
CONTINUED TO TREND FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. QPF
(INCLUDING THE ADDITIONAL LIGHT QPF TOMORROW) RANGE FROM LESS THAN
AN INCH EAST OF I-95 TO 2 INCHES IN THE POCONOS. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OVERNIGHT OR EVEN A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD.
THE EXTENT OF ANY FLOODING SHOULD BE LOW DUE TO THE ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, BUT IT SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE IN OR JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE
LOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD NYC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING BUT
THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
FRONT OVERHEAD, BUT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT WELL TO OUR NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND. TOOK THIS INTO ACCOUNT
WITH THE HOURLY POPS, WHICH DECREASE AS WE PROGRESS THRU THE DAY
TOMORROW. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST. IF
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, THEN THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA ACCORDING TO THE NAM.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...AN ABNORMALLY WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
FORECAST FOR THE AREA FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES, KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, WITH SEVERAL
VORTICITY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND PERHAPS FROM TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN...TO STREAM
NORTHWARD, PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXACT TIMING OF THESE EPISODES OF
RAIN THIS FAR OUT IS PROBLEMATIC, BUT HOPEFULLY WE`LL BE ABLE TO
FINE- TUNE THIS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. PLEASE SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE STRONG SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN NORMAL, AND WILL INCREASE TIDAL ANOMOLIES TO THE POINT
WHERE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
IN TERMS OF WINDS, IF JOAQUIN PASSES CLOSE TO THE COAST, WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE STRONG WINDS FOR COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK OR THE
WEEKEND. IT NEEDS TO BE STATED HERE THAT THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS JOAQUIN OFF THE COAST AS
IT MOVES NORTH. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRACK AND
STATEMENTS REGARDING TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER
LOW AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE GFS PUSHES THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE
AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWLY TRACKS IT ACROSS OUR AREA THEN TO OUR
NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE DRY AFTER
SUNDAY, WHILE THE WOULD CONTINUE A WET FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY, WE WILL FOLLOW WPC FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WHICH KEEPS A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTN. SHRA
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED NORTH OF PNE/TTN INTO ABE. BEHIND IT, SHRA
ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE SPOTTY UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT RDG, 03Z FOR
THE I-95 TAF SITES. THE SHRA MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A FEW
HOURS MAINLY OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE I-95. REGARDLESS, ALL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON CIGS LOWERING BACK TO MVFR THIS EVE AND
IFR OVERNIGHT.
IFR IN LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES THRU AT LEAST THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND A SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT.
S-SE WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT THIS AFTN BEFORE
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THIS EVE. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD GUST TO 20 KT
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD,
REACHING AT LEAST 25-30 KNOTS AT TIMES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR UPDATES ON TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN.
&&
.MARINE...
E-SE WINDS 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE
4 TO 6 FOOT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS, SO WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING THERE.
WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE DELAWARE BAY, POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALE FORCE. SEAS
WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH AS WELL.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN VERY HIGH AS WELL.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR UPDATES ON TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SPOTTY TIDAL FLOODING
MIGHT OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES OF MINOR OR
GREATER COASTAL FLOODING PROBABLY BEGINNING WITH THE THURSDAY MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND CONTINUING THIS WEEKEND.
CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
SEVERAL OF THESE HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
LOCAL INTERNAL OFFICE ASSESSMENT OFFERS SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES THAN
THAT OF THE 12Z/29 ETSS FOR THURSDAYS MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. DBOFS
THROUGH ITS FORECAST CYCLE (NAM BASED) IS CONSIDERED THE UNLIKELY
NON FLOOD SCENARIO.
THERE IS SPREAD IN TIMING THE LATE WEEK MORE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
NECESSARY TO DEVELOP THE LARGER POSITIVE SURGE DEPARTURES AND THERE
IS ALSO UNCERTAIN TIMING THE STRONGER GALE ONSHORE FLOW.
THAT SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS JUSTIFIES A STILL CAUTIOUS APPROACH TO
ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR MODERATE OR GREATER COASTAL
FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...WE`RE HOLDING OFF ON A 4TH PERIOD AND
BEYOND CFWATCH SINCE THERE IS A LACK OF TIMING CONFIDENCE.
HOWEVER, THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
OCCUR NEAR THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDES, PROBABLY BEGINNING WITH THE
MIDDAY THURSDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WAVES ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE TODAY, MAINLY FROM A PERSISTENT EAST SOUTHEAST
SWELL. THE WIND SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH
OR SO. THE ROUGH SEAS AND THE EAST SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL MAINTAIN A
HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR TODAY.
THE CONDITION OF THE OCEAN IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ROUGH FOR
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL LIKELY END OUR SURF ZONE FORECAST SEASON ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGH RISK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TWO SEPARATE RAINFALL EVENTS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR SO. THE
FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WILL FALL TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SECOND
BATCH IS FORECAST TO FALL THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL FROM THE
COMBINED EVENTS COULD BE IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE, ENDING ON MONDAY.
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL HELP WITH THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
MANY CREEKS, STREAMS AND MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE LOWER THAN WHERE THEY
TYPICALLY ARE THIS TIME OF YEAR. STREAMFLOW, IN GENERAL, APPEARS TO
BE A LITTLE LOWER IN NJ VERSUS ADJACENT AREAS.
THROUGH TOMORROW, THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW, AS IS
FLOODING ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. MAINSTEM FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. LOW LYING, POOR DRAINAGE, AND URBAN FLOODING WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREATS IN THE SHORT TERM.
IF THE WEEKEND RAINS COME TO FRUITION, THE THREAT OF POOR DRAINAGE,
FLASH FLOODING, AND EVEN SOME MAINSTEM FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
TWO MAIN MESSAGES TO PASS ALONG...
ONE, THIS WEEKENDS FLOOD POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE THE REGION WILL RECEIVE AT THAT TIME. THE FIRST
BATCH OF RAIN THROUGH TOMORROW WILL PRIME THE REGION, THE SECOND
BATCH COULD CAUSE SOME IMPACTS.
TWO, DO NOT JUST FOCUS ON TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN. TROPICAL AIR AND
HEAVY RAINS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE HERE WHEN JOAQUIN IS VERY FAR
AWAY. IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT JOAQUIN BECOMES A NON-FACTOR FOR US
AND THE MID-LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BECOMES
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR OUR FLOODING RAINS.
.CLIMATE...
KPHL, KILG, KACY AND KABE ALL PROBABLY GOING TO HAVE CULMINATED A
16 CONSECUTIVE DAY STRETCH OF NO MEASURABLE RAIN FROM THE 13TH
THROUGH TODAY THE 28TH. IT SHOULD MEASURE BY 1 AM WEDNESDAY (29TH
CLIMATE) BUT EVEN THEN, THERE IS A CHANCE MEASURABLE WILL NOT
REACH KACY BEFORE 1 AM WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS IS A LONG SPELL OF
DRY WEATHER, IT IS FAR FROM A RECORD.
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER WILL GO INTO THE BOOKS AS ONE OF THE
WARMEST ON RECORD.
KPHL IS NOW PROJECTING 74.3... OR 2ND WARMEST. NORMAL IS 69.1
DEPARTURE PLUS 5.2. POR BACK TO 1874
1881 75.4
2015 74.3
1931 74.1
1930 74.1
KABE IS NOW PROJECTING 69.3......STILL 4TH WARMEST. NORMAL IS
63.9 DEPARTURE PLUS 5.4 POR BACK TO 1922
1961 70.8
1980 70.3
1931 69.4
2015 69.3
2005 68.7
KILG IS NOW PROJECTING 72.3...OR TIED FOR 3RD WARMEST. NORMAL
67.8 DEPARTURE PLUS 4.5 POR BACK TO 1917. THERE WAS A MISSING
PERIOD BETWEEN 1897-1916
1895 72.9
1961 72.5
1930 72.3
2015 72.3
1970 72.1
1931 72.1
KACY PROJECTING 71.3 TIED FOR 7TH WARMEST. NORMAL 67.2 DEPARTURE
PLUS 3.9 POR BACK TO 1874
1961 73.3
1881 72.8
1931 72.3
1930 72.3
1921 71.7
1933 71.5
2015 71.3
2010 71.0
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...KLEIN/MIKETTA
MARINE...KLEIN/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
844 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SENT OUT AN EARLY UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
AREAS FROM ORLANDO TO CAPE SOUTHWARD. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL NOT
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. BASED ON SPEED
ESTIMATES THIS RAIN SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING. LATEST
WRF AND HRRR THEN KEEP PRECIP INTO THE AFT MORE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE DUE TO MORE CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THIS ALSO LINES
UP WELL WITH THE GFS INDICATING DEEPER MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL S/W
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA LATER INTO THE AFT. HOWEVER ANY BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER AND ADDITIONAL HEATING EARLY IN THE AFT MAY LEAD TO
HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE.
CLOUD COVER/RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD KEEP HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDS OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER
SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE RAIN OR ANY ISO STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS. AS RAIN SHIFTS EAST SCT SHOWERS AND
ISO STORMS GENERALLY EXPECTED INTO THE AFT...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES
REMAIN CLOUD AND LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WIND WAVES AND GUSTS AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF ~10 SEC SWELL
DUE TO LARGE FETCH AREA OVER THE MID ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
INTO THE EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST.
&&
.COASTAL...THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THE
EVENING AS ELEVATED SWELLS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH
DEPARTURES UP TO 1 TO 1.5 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE LEVELS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AND WAVE RUN UP TO THE BASE OF DUNES ALONG
MANY ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.
THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
DAYTONA BEACH......925 AM TUESDAY...953 PM TUESDAY
PORT CANAVERAL.....911 AM TUESDAY...934 PM TUESDAY
SEBASTIAN INLET....923 AM TUESDAY...940 PM TUESDAY
FT PIERCE INLET....940 AM TUESDAY...957 PM TUESDAY
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR IS JUST UNDER 3.0 FT
THIS MORNING...OR ABOUT 0.16 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HIGHER
THAN NORMAL HIGH TIDES DOWNSTREAM HAVE AFFECTED THE DISCHARGE RATE
BACKING UP THE RIVER LEVEL. RIVER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY WHILE REMAINING IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH MID
WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN NEAR
THE BASIN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR
RISES DEPENDING ON ANY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
149 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
IT APPEARS CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY....AND STALL NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST. SOME POSSIBILITIES OF
FAIR WEATHER RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
DIRECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE FA. THE SURFACE RIDGE AND EASTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA. INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING NORTH INTO THE
CSRA TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FA. OVERCAST SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL PROMOTE LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SW UPPER FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE WEST
GULF UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT EAST AS MAIN STREAM TROUGH DIGS
DOWN INTO THE E CONUS. WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
MOISTURE OVER THE GULF TO DRIFT NE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND SE
CONUS. LATEST MODELS APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT BEST UPPER LIFT AND
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD REMAIN
MAINLY JUST TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...BUT NONETHELESS HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BACK DOOR INTO THE REGION LATE WED/WED
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS THU/FRI WITH CUT-
OFF LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SW UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
REGION APPEAR WILL LEAD TO FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST...WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS
APPEARS TO KEEP OUR FA IN A COOL AND POSSIBLY WEAK WEDGE-LIKE NE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE PROVIDING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THU/FRI. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SAT/SUN WITH A ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...SUGGESTING MOISTURE
TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERSISTENT WEDGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS BUT WILL LEAN MORE PESSIMISTIC
HOLDING CIGS IN MVFR CATEGORY BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO IFR
AFTER 00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. DRY AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
301 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
For the short term, main concerns focused on a front moving through
the region this evening. Precipitation in the southeast is slowly
eroding, as is the post frontal showers from this morning northwest
of the Illinois River Valley. A narrow line of convection is firing
on the leading edge of the front, but so far, are very small in
coverage area. Drier air at the sfc expected to advect in as the
evening progresses. Models are not doing well with handling the llvl
moisture, with most being a little too progressive with the cloud
cover, initializing with higher ceilings. Have kept the cloud cover
in place for most of Central Illinois until after 00z...and after
06z for the southern half of the area. Once the skies clear out,
the temps should radiate out quite well, with the northeast dropping
into the 40s, and the southeast keeping the cloud cover and staying
warmer. The drier air moving in should drop the dewpoints, but
should the timing be off between the frontal passage/drying out in
the boundary layer/clearing of the skies, could end up seeing some
patchy fog invof the boundary towards morning, but not enough
confidence to warrant a mention in the forecast at this point.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
A large high pressure system will build into Canada north of the
Great Lakes for midweek into the weekend bringing persistent cool
temperatures and north to northeasterly breezes. The high will push
much drier Canadian air into central IL bringing mostly clear skies
at least until Saturday...along with dewpoints in the 40s and even
some 30s. Highs will range from the upper 60s to low 70s Wednesday
and continue to cool into the mid 60s for Friday through Sunday.
Lows will be generally in the 40s Wednesday night through the next
week.
A deep trough/surface low system is expected to form along the
Atlantic coast over the weekend...potentially merging with tropical
storm Joaquin. Recent model runs are hinting at a trough axis
wrapping around the low and perhaps bringing some cloud cover as far
west as central IL Sunday...and a slight chance of precipitation
about as far west as the Indiana border. Keeping the forecast dry
for central IL at this point. This feature should be short-lived as
high pressure builds into the central U.S. ahead of low pressure
moving through the west early next week...bringing a dry and
subsident northwesterly flow pattern into Illinois. This will also
bring a warming trend for the early part of next week...with most
high temperatures returning back into the low 70s by Tuesday. The
western low pressure feature could bring a chance for precipitation
into central IL midweek next week...although models remain highly
inconsistent on the track and other details of the system at this
point. For now...now mentionable chances of precipitation through
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
Most of ILX terminals between two areas of rain, with a front
moving through the area accompanied by MVFR/IFR cigs and gusty
northeasterly winds. VCSH through the afternoon, with the best
chances for precip lagging behind the boundary so far, and in air
that is mixing with some drier air and eroding many of the showers
this morning. Visibility holding with low cigs at least through
the day. Most models are already off with regards to cigs and
layer moisture in the llvls. HRRR handling the current conditions
a little better and have followed the timing of bringing the cigs
up later this evening. Once the front clears out, the skies should
clear up as well towards morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1238 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
A cold front is lagging in northwestern Illinois and making its
way through the region today. Two distinct areas of precipitation
this morning, one associated with an upper level disturbance, with
rain and scattered thunder through the morning south of the
interstate 72/74 corridor from SPI to DNV. This rain has remained
fairly consistent through the morning hours and should stay in
place for the afternoon. The second round of precip out there is behind
the cold front and will also be making its way across ILX.
Afternoon brings the lightning threat up as the convective element
increases with the diurnal heat. Only some minor updates to the
hourly pops. Otherwise, the forecast is doing well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
Two areas of rain seen on the radar mosaic at 300 am, one over
southern Illinois associated with an upper level wave seen on the
water vapor loop over far southeast Missouri with the second band
of showers and isolated thunder over the northern half of Iowa.
The Iowa precip was occurring west and northwest of the cold front
which as of 300 am was located over the northwest tip of Illinois
southwest through east central Iowa. This front will push across our
area this morning switching our winds into the north and northeast
bringing in much cooler weather later today and tonight. The better
chances for rain will be across the southeast half of our forecast
area today associated with the southeast Missouri wave, while models
continue to suggest the rain associated with the area of
frontogenetical forcing to our northwest will gradually weaken as it
spreads southeast today.
Forecast soundings showing the better elevated instability will be
over the central and especially southeast Illinois, but even in
these locations not seeing much in the way of Capes (Most Unstable)
above 750 J/KG, so will continue to hold onto isolated/slight chance
of thunder central and southeast sections for today. Although the
front is on target to pass across the northwest this morning and our
southeast counties this afternoon, the real cool down doesn`t occur
for several hours behind the boundary, so the 00z guidance has
caught on and has bumped temps up a few degrees from the last model
run. Looks like upper 60s far northwest to the upper 70s in the far
west and south this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
A chance of showers will linger well behind the cold front over
southeast IL this evening especially early this evening and have
increase pops then. Dry conditions then expected overnight with some
clearing of clouds over northern CWA, while southeast IL remains in
the clouds thru the night. Lows tonight range from upper 40s nw of
the IL river to the mid to upper 50s in southeast IL.
Large high pressure over the upper Midwest/northern Plains to
settles into the western Great Lakes region Wed and decrease clouds
over southeast IL. Breezy nne winds to bring cooler and drier air
into the region with highs Wed in the upper 60s northern CWA and
lower 70s southern CWA. Cool lows Wed night in the mid 40s central
IL and upper 40s in southeast IL. Upper level trof deepens into the
TN river valley Thu with upper level ridging over the Rockies.
Surface high pressure ridge axis stays to our nw keeping IL in a
cool/breezy nne flow and similar weather on Thu. Highs Thu in the
mid to upper 60s and lows Thu night in the low to mid 40s and NNE
winds become lighter during the night.
00Z forecast models show cutoff low to develop over southeast states
late this week near GA on Friday and near the Carolinas and mid
Atlantic states this weekend. Large Canadian high pressure northeast
of the Great Lakes late this week to keep IL in a cool and dry ne
flow. Highs in the 60s with lows in the low to mid 40s continues
through early next week along with dry weather which will make for
favorable harvest conditions. 00Z GEM/ECMWF/GFS all keep IL dry
from Wed through Sunday evening. 00Z Ecmwf/GFS models continue
dry weather over IL Monday and Tuesday of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
Most of ILX terminals between two areas of rain, with a front
moving through the area accompanied by MVFR/IFR cigs and gusty
northeasterly winds. VCSH through the afternoon, with the best
chances for precip lagging behind the boundary so far, and in air
that is mixing with some drier air and eroding many of the showers
this morning. Visibility holding with low cigs at least through
the day. Most models are already off with regards to cigs and
layer moisture in the llvls. HRRR handling the current conditions
a little better and have followed the timing of bringing the cigs
up later this evening. Once the front clears out, the skies should
clear up as well towards morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1154 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
Skies are remaining partl to mostly cloudy with most of the clouds
to the southeast, south of I-72. In addition, radar showing very
light pcpn moving across southeast IL this evening. Believe this
will continue the remainder of the night. Showers and isolated
storms are moving across Iowa just behind the front that is still
forecast to move into the area early morning. Current forecast
looks good, but may do some minor tweaks to pops/wx in southeast
IL. Only adjustment will be to wording of wx in southeast to
scattered and isolated, instead of chance and slight chance.
Update will be out shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
Original shield of lower clouds has been contracting throughout the
day, and was basically limited to areas from Peoria to Chicago this
afternoon. Remainder of the CWA has seen clouds more of a diurnal
nature, which has allowed enough sunshine to get temperatures into
the lower 80s. So far the showers have remained extremely isolated.
Precipitation threat for the forecast area tonight will be coming
from a couple different directions. Across the southeast CWA, some
upper level energy will continue to surge northward up the
Mississippi River as the upper low over east Texas lifts northeast
and starts to open up. Showers should remain isolated this evening,
before rain chances start to ramp up late night as the energy gets
closer. Could be a rumble or two of thunder in the far southeast
late tonight, as the RAP shows lifted index values falling to near
zero, but chance is too small at the moment to include in the
forecast. Across the northwest CWA, the main player will be the cold
front which currently is pushing through northwest Iowa. Arrival of
the frontal boundary will be after 3 AM, and most of the rain will
be post-frontal, so will only carry some slight 20-30% PoP`s
northwest of the Illinois River late tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
A cold front will cross from near I-72 to start the day Tuesday to
near the southern tip of Illinois by evening. At the same time, low
pressure over the south central states will drift toward the
southeastern U.S., helping to combine enough moisture, lift, and
instability into mainly the southern half of Illinois for showers
and isolated thunderstorms. As a result...keeping chances for
showers/isolated thunder south of I-72 for Tuesday...with chances of
showers diminishing to the north through the day. Highs will
feature a strong gradient across central IL, ranging from the upper
60s in Galesburg to near 80 in Lawrenceville as cooler and drier air
moves in behind the front. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s to start
the day to slip into the low to mid 50s behind the front over
northern counties Tue afternoon. Breezy north-northeast winds behind
the front will increase...reaching 10-15 mph with gusts into the 20
mph range.
Fairly persistent high pressure will settle into the Great Lakes
Region for the remainder of the work week...promoting an extended
period of breezy northeast winds and mostly sunny skies. Highs will
be in the upper 60s and low 70s through Friday with lows mainly in
40s.
There remains fairly poor model agreement over the weekend into
early next week...with a weak trough passing through the region in
the GFS...but a building ridge into the Plains and upper Midwest in
the ECMWF. Neither would have a good chance for precipitation and
forecast is therefore dry. Both would feature lighter winds.
Temperatures likely will feature minimal trend through the weekend
and kept highs in the 60s and lows mid-upper 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
Light showers coming north from the southeast IL overnight could
reach DEC and CMI during the early morning hours, so have included
VCSH for those two sites for about 6-7hrs, though do not think it
will last that long. Then a cold front is dropping south into the
area with pcpn behind the front. This pcpn and front will not
reach the TAF sites until late morning starting at PIA and then
around noon at BMI and then afternoon for SPI/DEC/CMI. MVFR cigs
are expected with this pcpn/fropa around 2.5kft along with some
scattered stratus. Pcpn associated with this front seems to be
weakening based on various short range models, so will just have
VCSH with this as well. Has been some thunder with the pcpn across
IA but believe will not see any in IL as it should be weakening.
As the front moves through, scattered pcpn will end but still
expecting mid clouds around 10kft behind the front along with
gusty north-northeast winds. PIA/BMI/SPI could see some clearing
during the evening hours. DEC and CMI will not see clearing until
closer to midnight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF RAIN THAT IS DIMINISHING IN
STRENGTH ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING NE OF THE AREA AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TRANSITIONING TO THE EAST OF
US...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. NOW FORECAST ATTENTION TURNS TO THE TEMPS FOR TODAY. WITH THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND THE FROPA IT APPEARS THAT CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE CWA HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...SLIGHT WARMING IN THE NW SHOULD OCCUR WHEN THE CLOUDS
BREAK FREE. HAVE CONTINUED TO UPDATE THE POPS AND WX GRIDS AS THE
RAIN DIMINISHES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN OF GREAT VALUE TODAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA
AS OF 2 AM...WITH A BAND OF POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW
REMAINING RUMBLES OF THUNDER FOUND ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT IS LIKELY GOING TO RESULT IN A DRY NIGHT
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND A BENEFICIAL RAIN OF
0.25 TO .60 IN THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN CENTRAL IOWA ALONG THE
FRONT...AND THIS WILL HAVE SOME INTERESTING IMPLICATIONS THIS
MORNING. WHILE THE PROCESS OF POST FRONTAL FGEN FORCED RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE...THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW IN CENTRAL IOWA
HAS HELD OFF ANY TRUE CAA OVER NORTHEAST IOWA THUS FAR...MAKING FOR
A MILD RAIN EVENT. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR TODAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SPREAD EAST OF THE
CWA...AND THE RAIN THAT OCCURS AFTER 6 AM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND...AND RATHER RAW CONDITIONS. IN OTHER
WORDS...IT WONT BE PLEASANT. IT ALSO WONT LAST VERY LONG. THE
MOISTURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER 15Z FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH...ENDING MEASURABLE RAINS AT THAT TIME. WE MAY CONTINUE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE AFTER THAT TIME...BUT THE
DRY AIR WILL WIN THE WAR BY AROUND NOON. WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...HIGHS SHOULD
CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREA WIDE. IN FACT...A VERY PLEASANT
AFTERNOON IS LIKELY CONTRASTING WHAT COULD BE A UNPLEASANT MORNING
COMMUTE.
TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...AND
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR...A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS
FORECAST. WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 40S IS LIKELY...WITH VALLEY
LOCATIONS DIPPING TO THE UPPER 30S. I HAVE OUTLINED IN THE GRIDS THE
WAPSIPINICON WITH UPPER 30S AS THAT SEEMS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING.
ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
OVERVIEW...SPLIT UPPER JET PATTERN FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH AND REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND EAST COAST.
POSITIONING OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA.
AVERAGE FORECAST FOR EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS IS FOR SEASONAL
HIGHS IN THE 60S...LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DRY CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EASTERN
CANADA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS CANADA
RESULTING IN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS LOCALLY.
850MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW
WEEKS...AVERAGING BETWEEN 3-6 C...1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST
BETWEEN 552-558 DAM. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO SIGNAL FOR PRECIP
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM NW TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. ENE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. AFTER
THIS...WINDS WILL STAY AOA 10 KTS TONIGHT FROM ENE. CLEAR SKIES
AND NO VSBY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z WED.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF RAIN THAT IS DIMINISHING IN
STRENGTH ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING NE OF THE AREA AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TRANSITIONING TO THE EAST OF
US...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. NOW FORECAST ATTENTION TURNS TO THE TEMPS FOR TODAY. WITH THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND THE FROPA IT APPEARS THAT CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE CWA HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...SLIGHT WARMING IN THE NW SHOULD OCCUR WHEN THE CLOUDS
BREAK FREE. HAVE CONTINUED TO UPDATE THE POPS AND WX GRIDS AS THE
RAIN DIMINISHES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN OF GREAT VALUE TODAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA
AS OF 2 AM...WITH A BAND OF POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW
REMAINING RUMBLES OF THUNDER FOUND ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT IS LIKELY GOING TO RESULT IN A DRY NIGHT
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND A BENEFICIAL RAIN OF
0.25 TO .60 IN THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN CENTRAL IOWA ALONG THE
FRONT...AND THIS WILL HAVE SOME INTERESTING IMPLICATIONS THIS
MORNING. WHILE THE PROCESS OF POST FRONTAL FGEN FORCED RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE...THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW IN CENTRAL IOWA
HAS HELD OFF ANY TRUE CAA OVER NORTHEAST IOWA THUS FAR...MAKING FOR
A MILD RAIN EVENT. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR TODAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SPREAD EAST OF THE
CWA...AND THE RAIN THAT OCCURS AFTER 6 AM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND...AND RATHER RAW CONDITIONS. IN OTHER
WORDS...IT WONT BE PLEASANT. IT ALSO WONT LAST VERY LONG. THE
MOISTURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER 15Z FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH...ENDING MEASURABLE RAINS AT THAT TIME. WE MAY CONTINUE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE AFTER THAT TIME...BUT THE
DRY AIR WILL WIN THE WAR BY AROUND NOON. WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...HIGHS SHOULD
CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREA WIDE. IN FACT...A VERY PLEASANT
AFTERNOON IS LIKELY CONTRASTING WHAT COULD BE A UNPLEASANT MORNING
COMMUTE.
TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...AND
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR...A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS
FORECAST. WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 40S IS LIKELY...WITH VALLEY
LOCATIONS DIPPING TO THE UPPER 30S. I HAVE OUTLINED IN THE GRIDS THE
WAPSIPINICON WITH UPPER 30S AS THAT SEEMS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING.
ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
OVERVIEW...SPLIT UPPER JET PATTERN FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH AND REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND EAST COAST.
POSITIONING OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA.
AVERAGE FORECAST FOR EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS IS FOR SEASONAL
HIGHS IN THE 60S...LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DRY CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EASTERN
CANADA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS CANADA
RESULTING IN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS LOCALLY.
850MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW
WEEKS...AVERAGING BETWEEN 3-6 C...1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST
BETWEEN 552-558 DAM. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO SIGNAL FOR PRECIP
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS IN
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. A BAND OF
MODERATE RAIN IS LOCATED OVER IOWA INTO WISCONSIN AS OF 12Z...AND
WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AS IT WEAKENS. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS...AND VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3 AND 6 MILES WILL BE
LIKELY IN THIS RAIN...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 25
KTS. BY 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY AND GUSTY THROUGH 00Z...BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 6
KTS OVERNIGHT.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
611 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
08Z water vapor imagery shows several pieces of energy around an
upper ridge centered off the coast of the CA Baja. A couple closed
lows were noted over the TX/LA gulf coast and over the Pacific, west
of San Fransisco. Meanwhile a broad upper level trough was located
over the Hudson Bay with a shortwave moving through the southern
periphery of this trough across NEB. At the surface, a cold front
has just move into northern portions of the forecast area and was
located from near CNK to MYZ.
Forcing for precip today and tonight appears to be limited as models
take the PVA from the shortwave over NEB to the east into IA. As
seen on the 00Z TOP RAOB, there is still a fair amount of dry air
ahead of the front and not a whole lot of instability. Because of
this the models have been backing off on their QPF progs. Do not
feel comfortable removing POPs altogether, but have trended them
lower through the day today. The biggest factor that gives me pause
is the trend to continue developing some very modest surface based
CAPE (around 500 J/kg) ahead of the front across east central KS
this afternoon. Although models show the low level convergence along
the boundary to be almost nonexistent by the time this instability
develops. So in general think measurable rainfall will be hard to
come by today, but not impossible. Temps could be a little tricky in
that if there is some insolation behind the front, highs could be a
little warmer than expected since there does not appear to be a
really cold airmass across NEB right now. For now have continued
with highs near 80 in the southern counties with readings expected
to be around 70 over the northern counties.
Tonight appears to be somewhat similar in that large scale forcing
is lacking. The one thing of note is the models suggest a
convectively induced vort max could move through central KS this
evening from the high plains. The warm air advection pattern does
not look as strong in the solutions as previous nights and
isentropic lift is kind of shallow and not as well organized as it
could be, focused mainly across north central KS. So this is where
the forecast continues to show some small (20 to 30 percent) POPs.
Models suggest the stronger push of cold and dry air will occur
overnight. Therefore have trended min temps cooler ranging from the
upper 40s north to the mid 50s south.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
An unsettled upper air pattern continues in the extended with a
series of systems, mostly weak, impact the area while bringing
chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. These systems in
turn, hold the cooler airmass in place with highs below normal
through early next week.
Mid level ridging strengthens over the Inter-mountain West as the
open shortwave trough amplifies across the west coast. Weak embedded
pieces of energy appear to be consistent with guidance, rounding the
northern periphery of the ridge before tracking southward across
central KS. Therefore have maintained slight to chc pops over north
central KS while most of the area remains dry Wednesday to early
Friday. Weak easterly winds at or below 10 kts through this period
will continue to advect cooler air into the region. Latest guidance
is continuing to pick up on the breadth of these cooler temps by
lowering highs to near 70 degrees on Wednesday and down to the
middle and upper 60s on Thursday. Cloud coverage will also play a
role with temps as mostly cloudy skies for north central KS allows
for cooler afternoons in the 60s and warmer evenings in the 50s.
Meanwhile over far northeast Kansas and east central areas, clear
skies will radiate cooler air to the surface with lows both evenings
in the middle to upper 40s.
A stronger and more organized upper trough will shift eastward over
the Rockies and into the central plains by Friday afternoon into
Saturday. Confidence in this system is beginning to increase with
similar timing from the latest GFS with the ECMWF and GEM. Best
chances for precip centers when the trough axis enters late Friday
evening into Saturday with scattered activity throughout the day.
Poor lapse rates with no instability signals rain showers expected.
In addition, cloudy skies and cold air advection may subsequently
only raise highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s both Friday and
Saturday. System exits late Saturday evening with partly cloudy
skies returning. Sunday begins the warming trend as highs recover in
the mid 60s, warming to the lower 70s by Monday. Pattern becomes
more uncertain at this point as the next upper wave enters the west
coast. Strength of the ridging off the west coast will determine
whether this system brings decent precip back into the area by the
ECMWF or digs it straight south and east over the southern plains on
the GFS. Will focus chances for showers mainly south of Interstate
70 at this time on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
With models taking the best forcing and deeper moisture north and
east of the terminals, think chances for precip are to small to
include in the forecast. There is an area of MVFR CIGS that trail
the front by a couple hours. Biggest uncertainty is whether they
make it into the terminals and how long they stick around. Since
both the NAM and RAP show higher RH values making it in, will
go ahead and put it in. Although the RAP is quick to mix out the
low level moisture so have only put the CIGS in as a tempo for
now.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
206 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
Fairly high confidence in the short term.
As usual patchy fog tonight is very difficult especially with a
north wind expected to stay up all night. The MOS data suggests at
least some patchy fog across the area with isolated areas of dense
fog mainly in Cape Girardeau. This is not unusual for the models
to advertise this fog after a rain event but it is not typical
with a north wind and clouds all night. This will be one parameter
we will have to monitor closely. The HRRR indicates an upper low
was meandering over confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers
most of the morning then it slowly lifts it toward EVV this aftn.
Current radar trends would support this scenario. Could see more
rain but should remain light and scattered at best. The upper
level wave will bisect the heartland around midnight and pass east
early Wednesday morning. Cleared the mention of rain in the wake
of this trough. After today cooler and drier air will filter into
the region with temperatures close to 10 degrees below normal for
highs and lows.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
At the start of the extended period, we will dealing with what
happens with an upper level low, which develops over the CWA
Wednesday night into Thursday. Medium range models suggest that by
12Z Friday, the upper low should be in Alabama, so our area should
remain rain free. We will likely be dealing with some cloudiness
(especially east) however and cool temperatures.
As we head into the weekend, this feature eventually moves east and
then northeast up the eastern seaboard, although models are in
disagreement on how fast and in what direction it will head. This
will mean continued cool temperatures and some cloudy conditions
from time to time until this system moves far enough east to not
impact our area. This will probably happen sometime late in the
weekend.
By early next week, we should see upper heights rising which will
mean an uptick in tempeatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
Isolated thunder and rain continue to rotate around the area
keeping IFR/MVFR conditions in place. Thunder will remain possible
until this evening. Variable winds will turn northerly this aftn
at all sites. Fog will be an issue at all sites with IFR fog
possible at KCGI. Rain chances dwindle overnight as drier air
filters into the region.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...KH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
544 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO
BRING HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS DOMINATE
THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
540 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BACK A FEW
HRS USING THE LATEST MRMS AND BASE RADAR SHOWING STEADIER RAIN
JUST MOVING INTO WNW AREAS. HRRR SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THINGS
QUITE WELL PER 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING BEST CONVERGENCE IN
THE WNW AREAS.
HEAVY RAIN SHIELD IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS VERMONT ON RADAR
AS SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE STATE OF MAINE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALL GUIDANCE CAME INTO AGREEMENT WITH
ROBUST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. TRENDED MAXIMUM QPF AXIS FURTHER INLAND COMPARED TO
LAST FORECAST PACKAGE...AS ALL GUIDANCE HAS FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE NOW. NAM12 IS THE MOST AGREESIVE
WITH UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMUM ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD WITH A GENERAL
3-5" AND SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE. EVEN
THOUGH THINGS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY DRY OVER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS...FELT THE AMOUNTS IN THEMSELVE WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH FOR
SMALL STREAM AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TOMORROWS SURFACE LOW TRACK WITH HEAVY RAIN OVERSPREADING THE
COAST AND DOWNEAST TOMORROW MORNING. GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT NOW...SO CONFIDENCE HAS FINALLY INCREASED ON THE OVERALL
SOLUTION. BIGGEST IMPACT AND THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WITH POSSIBLE BANDING STUCTURE DEVELOPMENT THAT
WILL LEAD TO LOCALZIED FLOODING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FRIDAY CAUSING RAIN TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. HAVE USED A
50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF TO GENERATE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
POP.. QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM REMAINS A CHALLENGING FORECAST, WITH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY LINGERING AROUND THE FUTURE OF TS JOAQUIN. THE
FORECAST FOR JOAQUIN IS NO MORE CERTAIN TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, WITH EVERY MODEL SEEMINGLY HAVING A DIFFERENT SOLUTION
BEYOND 48-72 HRS. THE DISCREPANCIES SEEM TO BE BASED ON THEIR
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS
AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC, TYPICAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS SORT OF A PATTERN. CURRENT SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM HOOKING INTO
THE CAROLINAS OR MID- ATLANTIC TO GOING OFF TO NOVA SCOTIA OR EVEN
EAST OF THERE.
WHAT DOES SEEM SOMEWHAT CERTAIN IS THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM, AND MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT CREEPING BACK NORTH A BIT SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW LKLY
POPS OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO NUDGE BACK NORTH
ONSHORE. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD, HOWEVER, POPS WERE GENERALLY
KEPT AT CHC LEVELS, SINCE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-TERM PATTERN
EVOLUTION AND THE FATE OF TS JOAQUIN SEEM TO PRECLUDE ANY
DEFINITIVE FORECAST FOR DRIER OR WETTER WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: AVIATION OPERATIONS WILL BE SERVERLY IMPACTING OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOW VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... HOWEVER
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE KBGR AND KBHB FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA IN EFFECT BEGINNING TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
PEAK TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS COASTAL LOW PUSHES UP THE COAST. STRONG
BAND OF SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PEAK TOMORROW AFTERNOON...GALE
WARING ISSUED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT.
SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE GFS WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE BEST HANDLE ON LOW PRESSURE THROUGH TO THE EAST OF WATERS.
FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND (6-8 FEET/7-8 SECONDS) WAVE ON WEST SIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LONGER PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY
(SWELL 4-5 FEET/9-10 SECONDS). EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
UNTIL 1200Z THURSDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SCA. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND NEW GALE MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR MEZ004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/DUMONT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUMONT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/DUMONT/MIGNONE
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
805 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...THEN STALLS ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT
PUSHES BACK ONSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...HURRICANE JOAQUIN
LIFTS WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY...LOCATING JUST OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AND OFF THE DELMARVA MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SE VA/NE
NC IN A WARM/MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NRN NECK BACK INTO CENTRAL VA ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. RAP MESO-ANALYSIS STILL DEPICTS 30-35 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTY WINDS UNDER THE
STRONGEST STORMS...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. BASED ON
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW
AND DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS
THRU THIS EVENING SE VA/NE NC.
COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST/WRN ATLANTIC AND STALLS IN SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL RESULT IN ONGOING LIKELY POPS...RAMPING UP TO LOW END
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HI-RES AND RAP MODELS SEEM TO
HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT WELL...SO HAVE TRENDED THAT WAY. QPF
AMOUNTS THRU THE OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UNDER A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH NW HALF TO AROUND AN INCH SE VA/NE NC. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSIST. LOWERING DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S PIEDMONT TO MID-UPPER 60S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... INCREASING
CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT PREDECESSOR RAIN
EVENT DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. LATEST GEFS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST (DEEP TROUGH)...WITH
STRONG POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY (UPPER
HIGH). THESE ANOMALIES WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT
OF THIS AMPLIFYING PATTERN IS A CLOSED/CUT OFF UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SE CONUS BY FRIDAY. THE PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLUX/ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE SREF INDICATING
ANOMALIES OF + 4 STD DEV BY FRIDAY AND +6 BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
THE COLD/COASTAL FRONT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY NNW THU...BEFORE
STALLING ALONG THE COAST IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT. STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE REGION THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRI/FRI NIGHT THANKS TO THE UPPER LOW AND AN EXITING 100+ KT JET
STREAK. OVERRUNNING COMMENCES WITH RAIN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THU AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF
FOLLOWING CLOSE TO 12Z/30 WPC QPF...WHICH RESULTS IN STORM TOTAL
QPF AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES!!! THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON
A FLOOD WATCH ATTM AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRI (3RD PERIOD). NASA SPORT GUIDANCE INDICATES RECENT
RAINFALL HAS SATURATED MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT (WEDS-WEDS NIGHT)...SOILS WILL
BE RATHER MOIST TO BEGIN THE EVENT. MMEFS GUIDANCE INDICATES
WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING/AREAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AND WILL
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO JOAQUIN ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE JOAQUIN (AS OF THE 5 PM NHC UPDATE)...
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO SURROUND THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
HURRICANE JOAQUIN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING
CLOSELY TO NHC FORECASTS...JOAQUIN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NWD
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AND BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE WELL OFF THE FL
COAST. JOAQUIN THEN ACCELERATES NWD...WEAKENING...WITH UNCERTAINTY
BECOMING PROBLEMATIC THEREAFTER. GFS CONTINUES A SRN TREND...WITH
THE 30/12Z GFS BRINGING THE CIRCULATION INLAND IN THE CAROLINAS.
HOWEVER...THE GEFS ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD. THE
30/00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CIRCULATION WELL OFFSHORE.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT EACH SCENARIO COULD BE POSSIBLE.
FOLLOWING A MODEL MEAN BUT WEIGHTED LESS TO THE ECMWF WELL
OFFSHORE TRACK (ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER...THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK NOW
HAS JOAQUIN BRUSHING ACRS ERN NC SUNDAY...AND PUSHING UP THE BAY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON. PLEASE REFER TO NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR DETAILS AS
THIS DESCRIPTION IS MERELY THE MID POINT OF THE TRACK...WITH A
WIDE CONE OF SOLUTIONS ALL THE WAY FROM A SE NC LANDFALL TO ONE
OVER THE NE STATES. WOULD ANTICIPATE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS BOTH THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND JOAQUIN ARE BETTER
SAMPLED.
GALE CONDITIONS...HIGH SEAS/WAVES AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING ARE ALSO EXPECTED. PLEASE REFER TO MARINE AND TIDES
SECTIONS BELOW.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH AN IN-SITU CAD
WEDGE OVER THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 70S FAR SE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WARMER OVER THE PIEDMONT SAT AND SUN...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S NW TO MID 70S SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STILL RATHER HIGH UNCERTAINTY THROUGH MON GIVEN THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF JOAQUIN...BUT OVERALL WILL EXPECT DRIER/MORE TYPICAL
EARLY OCTOBER CONDITIONS TO FINALLY TAKE CONTROL MON NIGHT
THROUGH WED IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS
MON...TRENDING DOWN TO 20% POPS CONFINED TO THE COAST BY TUE. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...A COLD FRONT BETWEEN ORF AND PHF WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
AND THROUGH ECG NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN AND A FEW TSTMS WERE ALONG AND
TO THE SE OF THE FRONT. GENERALLY MVFR CONDS EXISTED ACRS THE AREA
WITH SOME IFR IN HEAVY PCPN.
OVERNIGHT...A GENERAL AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPS AT ALL THE TAF SITES AND
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. WINDS FROM THE N/NE WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY ON THURSDAY. MVFR CONDS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO IFR
ACRS THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MAINLY IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY.
AFTER FRIDAY...THE WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PATH OF JOAQUIN
WHICH MAY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. CHECK WITH THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE WATERS AS OF 600 PM THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS...AND LIGHTNING SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY CAA FROM THE NORTH. N-NE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND SURGE DOWN THE BAY AND NRN
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER ALL
WATERS EARLY THU MORNING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25KT. IN
ADDITION...SEAS BUILD TO 5-6FT AND WAVES ON CHES BAY BUILD TO
4-5FT BY MORNING. SCA FLAGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS BY
THU MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BY THU AFTN AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER SERN CANADA AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS ROUGHLY NORTH
OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT BY THU AFTN AND THEN NORTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER BY THU EVENING...INCLUDING CHES BAY. SEAS BUILD TO 8-12 FT
AND 6-8FT SOUTH OVERNIGHT THU. KEPT GALE WARNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND AND EXTENDED THE HEADLINE THROUGH FRI
AFTN/4TH PERIOD. GALE WATCH FOR CHES BAY WAS DELAYED UNTIL THU
EVENING WITH GALES NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THU
NIGHT.
A COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A
LARGE AMT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN
GETS PULLED INTO THIS SYSTEM OR NOT. EITHER WAY...STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS AVERAGING 25-35KT WITH GUSTS OF 40-45KT ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-15FT BY SUN
MORNING (POSSIBLY HIGHER). CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DRASTICALLY
FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL HEADLINES MAY BE FORTHCOMING ON
THU...SO PLEASE KEEP CHECKING THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UP TO DATE
INFORMATION.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR MD/VA ATLC COASTAL AREAS AND
FOR THE LOWER/MIDDLE BAY AS WELL AS THE JAMES/YORK/RAPPAHANNOCK
RIVERS FOR MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING
BEGINNING FRI (THU EVENING FOR OCEAN CITY).
THIS AS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY BY THU EVENING INTO FRI WITH ANOMALOUS
~1045 MB SFC HIGH OVER ERN CANADA IN TANDEM WITH A TROUGH/STALLED
FRONT JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACT
WIND DIRECTION (I.E NNE TO ENE)...WHICH WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT
CONSEQUENCES FOR THE DEGREE OF TIDAL FLOODING IN SPECIFIC AREAS.
FOR NOW HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE STRONGER ETSS AND
WEAKER ESTOFS GUIDANCE. BEYOND SAT...WITH POSSIBLE APPROACH
OF JOAQUIN...ANOMALIES WOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THREAT FOR
MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING DEVELOPS. KEEP IN MIND THAT IF ANY TROPICAL/HURRICANE
WATCHES/WARNINGS GET ISSUED...COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES WOULD BE
CHANGED TO TROPICAL PRODUCTS AT THAT TIME.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ076-078-082>086-089-090-093-095>098-518-
520-522>525.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ658.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-
652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ633-635>637.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ638.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...ALB/DAP
AVIATION...MAS/DAP
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LKB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1253 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SRN MANITOBA. ACCOMPANYING 12HR HGT
FALLS UP TO 70M ARE DEEPENING TROF A BIT CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY
INTO THE UPR LKS. ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
THRU UPR MI...ALLOWING AN INFLUX OF MUCH COOLER AIR WITH 00Z H85
TEMPS AS LO AS -5C AT THE PAS MANITOBA AND -2C AT YPL. DESPITE THE
CHILL OF THIS INCOMING AIRMASS RELATIVE TO THE WARM LK WATERS /AS
HI AS 15C OVER WRN LK SUP/...DRYNESS OF THE LLVL AIRMASS DEPICTED ON
THE UPSTREAM RAOBS AND LARGER SCALE ACYC NW FLOW TO THE E OF SFC HI
PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS HAVE PREVENTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LK
CLDS. PWATS AT THE PAS AND YPL WERE AROUND 0.25 INCH. UNDER THE
SHARP PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF THE HI...NW WINDS HAVE GUSTED UP TO
30 KTS AT SOME OF THE HIER PLATFORMS ON LK SUP. THERE ARE SOME HI
CLDS STREAKING ACRS THE UPR LKS ON THE NRN FLANK OF A DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST...BUT PCPN/THICKER CLDS ARE CLOSER
TO DEEP MSTR WELL TO THE S.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON TEMPS TNGT AND NEED
FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
TODAY...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHRTWV THRU NW ONTARIO AND ATTENDANT
COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG...LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE WL
DOMINATE AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES CENTER TO SHIFT NEAR WRN LK SUP BY
00Z THIS EVNG. GUSTY NW WINDS...REACHING NEAR 30 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER
THE E HALF CLOSE TO LK SUP UNDER STRONG CAA THIS MRNG WL ADVECT THE
DRIER LLVL AIR INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME SCT CU COULD DVLP WITH
ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS AND ACYC
FLOW WL BRING ABOUT A MOSUNNY DAY. DESPITE THIS SUNSHINE...H85 TEMPS
NO HIER THAN 2C WL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES. THE
STRONG NW WINDS OVER LK SUP WL BRING HIER WAVES UP TO 5 FT AND A HI
SWIM RISK ALONG THE BEACHES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS IS FCST TO STRETCH FM NEAR JAMES BAY
ACRS WRN UPR MI AND INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. UNDER LGT WINDS
AND MOCLR SKIES WITH PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25 INCH...EXPECT MIN TEMPS
OVER THE WRN CWA TO PLUMMET BLO 32 AT MANY PLACES OVER THE INTEIOR W
HALF. ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR E HALF MAY SEE THE
MECURY TUMBLE BLO 32 AS WELL...A BIT TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT/HIER H925
WINDS UP TO 15-20KT WL LIMIT THE AREA OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE LK SHORES...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP E OF THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI S OF ESCANABA...SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH
MIN TEMPS HOLDING AOA 40. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...OPTED TO MAINTAIN FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR W
HALF. INCLUDED DICKINSON COUNTY IN THIS LATEST VERSION AS WINDS
THERE WL BE SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT. ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA TO INDICATE THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF FROST AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES GIVES WAY
TO RISING HEIGHTS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WILL BUILD TO OVER 1042MB BY 12Z FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. DUE TO
THE SFC RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER. AFTER
WIDESPREAD FROST EARLY ON...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST AND NCNTRL CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NAM/GFS/GEM- REGIONAL
SHOWING POCKET OF HIGHER H85 RH AND H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C WHILE WATER
TEMPS ARE 13-15C. OVERALL DRYNESS OF AIRMASS AND LACK OF CYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS. EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BLO H85 RESULT IN MOST CLOUDS OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR NCNTRL...
SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS OF MAIN MODELS. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY STAY IN
THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
CHILLY NIGHT WITH FROST LIKELY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEADY EAST WINDS ABOVE 10 KTS H95-H85 BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PWATS LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES...NEAR SFC LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE AND MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE MORE IN THE UPR 30S TO AROUND
40 DEGREES. COOL AIRMASS PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY IN THE 50S...BUT THIS TIME WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. THOUGH SFC
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AIRMASS
CHANGES LITTLE AND IN FACT...PWATS ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
CHECKING IN LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. LOWERED MINS TOWARD COOLER MEX
GUIDANCE AND ADDED MENTION OF FROST. COOLEST READINGS IN LOW 30S WILL
BE FOR THE INTERIOR.
BY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW TROUGH OR AT LEAST A PORTION OF IT
RETROGRADING WEST BETWEEN UPPER RIDGES OVER MANITOBA/NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS FM MODELS
THAT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE THIS WEEK WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND TO BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST EASTERN
PART OF CWA. TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN COULD BE FURTHER COMPLICATED
BY TROPICAL SYSTEM JOAQUIN LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OR ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER 1040MB CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
WILL KEEP RIDGE AND DRY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
AT LEAST FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. AGREEMENT DECREASES BY LATER
WEEKEND DUE TO HOW FAR WEST MODELS BRING SFC LOW TIED INTO THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING NORTH FM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. 00Z RUNS VARY WILDLY FM
STRONGER SFC LOW AS FAR WEST AS GEORGIAN BAY PER THE GFS AND MORE
OVER THE EAST COAST FM THE GEM-NH AND ECMWF. THOUGH GFS SOLUTION IS
NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN IT HAS SHOWED IT OCCASIONALLY IN
THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT GEM-NH SHOWED A DAY AGO.
GIVEN THE VOLITILITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL
STAY WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS WHICH SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAINLY OVER THE EAST CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY COOL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES
DURING THE DAYTIME AND MID 30S TO MID 40S DURING THE NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL 3 TERMINALS THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT E OF HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT NNW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT OVER THE
WEST HALF AS THE HI DRIFTS NEARLY OVERHEAD...BUT N VEERING NE WINDS
UP TO 20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E UNDER TIGHTER GRADIENT
FARTHER FROM THE HI PRES RIDGE AXIS. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS
SLOWLY ENE AND INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A STEADY 15-25KT
ENE WIND WILL PERSIST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-003-005>007-012>014-085.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
724 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SRN MANITOBA. ACCOMPANYING 12HR HGT
FALLS UP TO 70M ARE DEEPENING TROF A BIT CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY
INTO THE UPR LKS. ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
THRU UPR MI...ALLOWING AN INFLUX OF MUCH COOLER AIR WITH 00Z H85
TEMPS AS LO AS -5C AT THE PAS MANITOBA AND -2C AT YPL. DESPITE THE
CHILL OF THIS INCOMING AIRMASS RELATIVE TO THE WARM LK WATERS /AS
HI AS 15C OVER WRN LK SUP/...DRYNESS OF THE LLVL AIRMASS DEPICTED ON
THE UPSTREAM RAOBS AND LARGER SCALE ACYC NW FLOW TO THE E OF SFC HI
PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS HAVE PREVENTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LK
CLDS. PWATS AT THE PAS AND YPL WERE AROUND 0.25 INCH. UNDER THE
SHARP PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF THE HI...NW WINDS HAVE GUSTED UP TO
30 KTS AT SOME OF THE HIER PLATFORMS ON LK SUP. THERE ARE SOME HI
CLDS STREAKING ACRS THE UPR LKS ON THE NRN FLANK OF A DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST...BUT PCPN/THICKER CLDS ARE CLOSER
TO DEEP MSTR WELL TO THE S.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON TEMPS TNGT AND NEED
FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
TODAY...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHRTWV THRU NW ONTARIO AND ATTENDANT
COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG...LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE WL
DOMINATE AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES CENTER TO SHIFT NEAR WRN LK SUP BY
00Z THIS EVNG. GUSTY NW WINDS...REACHING NEAR 30 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER
THE E HALF CLOSE TO LK SUP UNDER STRONG CAA THIS MRNG WL ADVECT THE
DRIER LLVL AIR INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME SCT CU COULD DVLP WITH
ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS AND ACYC
FLOW WL BRING ABOUT A MOSUNNY DAY. DESPITE THIS SUNSHINE...H85 TEMPS
NO HIER THAN 2C WL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES. THE
STRONG NW WINDS OVER LK SUP WL BRING HIER WAVES UP TO 5 FT AND A HI
SWIM RISK ALONG THE BEACHES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS IS FCST TO STRETCH FM NEAR JAMES BAY
ACRS WRN UPR MI AND INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. UNDER LGT WINDS
AND MOCLR SKIES WITH PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25 INCH...EXPECT MIN TEMPS
OVER THE WRN CWA TO PLUMMET BLO 32 AT MANY PLACES OVER THE INTEIOR W
HALF. ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR E HALF MAY SEE THE
MECURY TUMBLE BLO 32 AS WELL...A BIT TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT/HIER H925
WINDS UP TO 15-20KT WL LIMIT THE AREA OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE LK SHORES...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP E OF THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI S OF ESCANABA...SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH
MIN TEMPS HOLDING AOA 40. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...OPTED TO MAINTAIN FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR W
HALF. INCLUDED DICKINSON COUNTY IN THIS LATEST VERSION AS WINDS
THERE WL BE SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT. ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA TO INDICATE THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF FROST AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES GIVES WAY
TO RISING HEIGHTS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WILL BUILD TO OVER 1042MB BY 12Z FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. DUE TO
THE SFC RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER. AFTER
WIDESPREAD FROST EARLY ON...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST AND NCNTRL CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NAM/GFS/GEM- REGIONAL
SHOWING POCKET OF HIGHER H85 RH AND H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C WHILE WATER
TEMPS ARE 13-15C. OVERALL DRYNESS OF AIRMASS AND LACK OF CYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS. EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BLO H85 RESULT IN MOST CLOUDS OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR NCNTRL...
SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS OF MAIN MODELS. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY STAY IN
THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
CHILLY NIGHT WITH FROST LIKELY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEADY EAST WINDS ABOVE 10 KTS H95-H85 BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PWATS LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES...NEAR SFC LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE AND MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE MORE IN THE UPR 30S TO AROUND
40 DEGREES. COOL AIRMASS PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY IN THE 50S...BUT THIS TIME WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. THOUGH SFC
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AIRMASS
CHANGES LITTLE AND IN FACT...PWATS ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
CHECKING IN LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. LOWERED MINS TOWARD COOLER MEX
GUIDANCE AND ADDED MENTION OF FROST. COOLEST READINGS IN LOW 30S WILL
BE FOR THE INTERIOR.
BY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW TROUGH OR AT LEAST A PORTION OF IT
RETROGRADING WEST BETWEEN UPPER RIDGES OVER MANITOBA/NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS FM MODELS
THAT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE THIS WEEK WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND TO BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST EASTERN
PART OF CWA. TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN COULD BE FURTHER COMPLICATED
BY TROPICAL SYSTEM JOAQUIN LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OR ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER 1040MB CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
WILL KEEP RIDGE AND DRY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
AT LEAST FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. AGREEMENT DECREASES BY LATER
WEEKEND DUE TO HOW FAR WEST MODELS BRING SFC LOW TIED INTO THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING NORTH FM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. 00Z RUNS VARY WILDLY FM
STRONGER SFC LOW AS FAR WEST AS GEORGIAN BAY PER THE GFS AND MORE
OVER THE EAST COAST FM THE GEM-NH AND ECMWF. THOUGH GFS SOLUTION IS
NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN IT HAS SHOWED IT OCCASIONALLY IN
THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT GEM-NH SHOWED A DAY AGO.
GIVEN THE VOLITILITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL
STAY WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS WHICH SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAINLY OVER THE EAST CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY COOL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES
DURING THE DAYTIME AND MID 30S TO MID 40S DURING THE NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
GUSTY NNW WINDS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES MOVING E THRU MN WILL
ADVECT VERY DRY AIR INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS...LEADING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TERMINALS THIS FCST PERIOD. AS THE HI PRES MOVES
CLOSER LATER TODAY AND DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING SUBSIDES...THE GUSTY
WINDS WL DIMINISH AOB 5 KTS BY 30/00Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT E OF HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT NNW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT OVER THE
WEST HALF AS THE HI DRIFTS NEARLY OVERHEAD...BUT N VEERING NE WINDS
UP TO 20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E UNDER TIGHTER GRADIENT
FARTHER FROM THE HI PRES RIDGE AXIS. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS
SLOWLY ENE AND INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A STEADY 15-25KT
ENE WIND WILL PERSIST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MIZ002-004-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
415 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SRN MANITOBA. ACCOMPANYING 12HR HGT
FALLS UP TO 70M ARE DEEPENING TROF A BIT CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY
INTO THE UPR LKS. ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
THRU UPR MI...ALLOWING AN INFLUX OF MUCH COOLER AIR WITH 00Z H85
TEMPS AS LO AS -5C AT THE PAS MANITOBA AND -2C AT YPL. DESPITE THE
CHILL OF THIS INCOMING AIRMASS RELATIVE TO THE WARM LK WATERS /AS
HI AS 15C OVER WRN LK SUP/...DRYNESS OF THE LLVL AIRMASS DEPICTED ON
THE UPSTREAM RAOBS AND LARGER SCALE ACYC NW FLOW TO THE E OF SFC HI
PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS HAVE PREVENTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LK
CLDS. PWATS AT THE PAS AND YPL WERE AROUND 0.25 INCH. UNDER THE
SHARP PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF THE HI...NW WINDS HAVE GUSTED UP TO
30 KTS AT SOME OF THE HIER PLATFORMS ON LK SUP. THERE ARE SOME HI
CLDS STREAKING ACRS THE UPR LKS ON THE NRN FLANK OF A DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST...BUT PCPN/THICKER CLDS ARE CLOSER
TO DEEP MSTR WELL TO THE S.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON TEMPS TNGT AND NEED
FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
TODAY...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHRTWV THRU NW ONTARIO AND ATTENDANT
COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG...LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE WL
DOMINATE AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES CENTER TO SHIFT NEAR WRN LK SUP BY
00Z THIS EVNG. GUSTY NW WINDS...REACHING NEAR 30 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER
THE E HALF CLOSE TO LK SUP UNDER STRONG CAA THIS MRNG WL ADVECT THE
DRIER LLVL AIR INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME SCT CU COULD DVLP WITH
ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS AND ACYC
FLOW WL BRING ABOUT A MOSUNNY DAY. DESPITE THIS SUNSHINE...H85 TEMPS
NO HIER THAN 2C WL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES. THE
STRONG NW WINDS OVER LK SUP WL BRING HIER WAVES UP TO 5 FT AND A HI
SWIM RISK ALONG THE BEACHES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS IS FCST TO STRETCH FM NEAR JAMES BAY
ACRS WRN UPR MI AND INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. UNDER LGT WINDS
AND MOCLR SKIES WITH PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25 INCH...EXPECT MIN TEMPS
OVER THE WRN CWA TO PLUMMET BLO 32 AT MANY PLACES OVER THE INTEIOR W
HALF. ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR E HALF MAY SEE THE
MECURY TUMBLE BLO 32 AS WELL...A BIT TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT/HIER H925
WINDS UP TO 15-20KT WL LIMIT THE AREA OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE LK SHORES...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP E OF THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI S OF ESCANABA...SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH
MIN TEMPS HOLDING AOA 40. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...OPTED TO MAINTAIN FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR W
HALF. INCLUDED DICKINSON COUNTY IN THIS LATEST VERSION AS WINDS
THERE WL BE SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT. ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA TO INDICATE THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF FROST AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES GIVES WAY
TO RISING HEIGHTS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WILL BUILD TO OVER 1042MB BY 12Z FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. DUE TO
THE SFC RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER. AFTER
WIDESPREAD FROST EARLY ON...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST AND NCNTRL CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NAM/GFS/GEM- REGIONAL
SHOWING POCKET OF HIGHER H85 RH AND H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C WHILE WATER
TEMPS ARE 13-15C. OVERALL DRYNESS OF AIRMASS AND LACK OF CYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS. EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BLO H85 RESULT IN MOST CLOUDS OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR NCNTRL...
SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS OF MAIN MODELS. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY STAY IN
THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
CHILLY NIGHT WITH FROST LIKELY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEADY EAST WINDS ABOVE 10 KTS H95-H85 BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PWATS LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES...NEAR SFC LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE AND MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE MORE IN THE UPR 30S TO AROUND
40 DEGREES. COOL AIRMASS PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY IN THE 50S...BUT THIS TIME WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. THOUGH SFC
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AIRMASS
CHANGES LITTLE AND IN FACT...PWATS ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
CHECKING IN LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. LOWERED MINS TOWARD COOLER MEX
GUIDANCE AND ADDED MENTION OF FROST. COOLEST READINGS IN LOW 30S WILL
BE FOR THE INTERIOR.
BY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW TROUGH OR AT LEAST A PORTION OF IT
RETROGRADING WEST BETWEEN UPPER RIDGES OVER MANITOBA/NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS FM MODELS
THAT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE THIS WEEK WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND TO BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST EASTERN
PART OF CWA. TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN COULD BE FURTHER COMPLICATED
BY TROPICAL SYSTEM JOAQUIN LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OR ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER 1040MB CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
WILL KEEP RIDGE AND DRY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
AT LEAST FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. AGREEMENT DECREASES BY LATER
WEEKEND DUE TO HOW FAR WEST MODELS BRING SFC LOW TIED INTO THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING NORTH FM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. 00Z RUNS VARY WILDLY FM
STRONGER SFC LOW AS FAR WEST AS GEORGIAN BAY PER THE GFS AND MORE
OVER THE EAST COAST FM THE GEM-NH AND ECMWF. THOUGH GFS SOLUTION IS
NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN IT HAS SHOWED IT OCCASIONALLY IN
THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT GEM-NH SHOWED A DAY AGO.
GIVEN THE VOLITILITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL
STAY WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS WHICH SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAINLY OVER THE EAST CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY COOL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES
DURING THE DAYTIME AND MID 30S TO MID 40S DURING THE NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 25KT.
INCOMING CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
TONIGHT/TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT E OF HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT NNW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT OVER THE
WEST HALF AS THE HI DRIFTS NEARLY OVERHEAD...BUT N VEERING NE WINDS
UP TO 20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E UNDER TIGHTER GRADIENT
FARTHER FROM THE HI PRES RIDGE AXIS. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS
SLOWLY ENE AND INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A STEADY 15-25KT
ENE WIND WILL PERSIST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MIZ002-004-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
333 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA. TROF IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SFC COLD FRONTS. FIRST IS
MOVING ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI ATTM WHILE THE SECOND WHICH MARKS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NOTABLY COLDER AIR RUNS FROM JAMES BAY TO JUST W
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IMPROVED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN UNDERNEATH HAS
SUPPORTED AN EXPANSION OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE
LEAD COLD FRONT TODAY...THOUGH THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH THUNDER THIS
AFTN AFTER AN INCREASE DURING THE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING COLD FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN
S AND E THIS EVENING. WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PCPN
FIELDS...UTILIZED A COMBINATION OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND RADAR TRENDS
TO CONSTRUCT POP GRIDS THRU THE EVENING. LINGERING UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK AS WELL AS SECOND SFC COLD FRONT
SWEEPING SE MAY GENERATE A FEW -SHRA BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN
TIED MORE CLOSELY TO FIRST COLD FRONT. THUS...SOME LOW POPS WILL BE
CARRIED AS LATE AS THE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL/SE.
OTHERWISE...COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS CURRENTLY AT 10-13C WILL FALL TO -1C OVER THE
KEWEENAW TO 7C FAR SCNTRL BY 12Z TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH
COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND 40F AND PROBABLY
INTO THE UPPER 30S AT SOME HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER W AND NW
UPPER MI. HIGHEST MINS WILL BE NEAR LAKE MI...UPPER 40S/AROUND 50F.
ALTHOUGH THE SFC-850MB DELTA-T BTWN THE LAKE WATERS STILL IN THE
MID/UPR 50S F IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE CLOUDS/PCPN...FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY. SO...THE
CHILLY AIR FLOW OVER THE LAKE PROBABLY WON`T SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN
SCT CLOUDS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT.
850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT -1 TO -2C TUE MORNING. WITH FCST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOWING A VERY DRY AIR MASS FLOWING INTO THE UPPER LAKES...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. IF ANYTHING...THE
MOISTENING PROVIDED BY THE LAKE MAY PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER INLAND FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS ON
THE MOISTURE. SHOULDN`T BE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F AND A RATHER BRISK NW WIND...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES GIVES WAY
TO RISING HEIGHTS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WILL BUILD TO OVER 1042MB BY 12Z FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. DUE TO
THE SFC RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER. AFTER
WIDESPREAD FROST EARLY ON...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST AND NCNTRL CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NAM/GFS/GEM- REGIONAL
SHOWING POCKET OF HIGHER H85 RH AND H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C WHILE WATER
TEMPS ARE 13-15C. OVERALL DRYNESS OF AIRMASS AND LACK OF CYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS. EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BLO H85 RESULT IN MOST CLOUDS OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR NCNTRL...
SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS OF MAIN MODELS. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY STAY IN
THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
CHILLY NIGHT WITH FROST LIKELY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEADY EAST WINDS ABOVE 10 KTS H95-H85 BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PWATS LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES...NEAR SFC LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE AND MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE MORE IN THE UPR 30S TO AROUND
40 DEGREES. COOL AIRMASS PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY IN THE 50S...BUT THIS TIME WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. THOUGH SFC
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AIRMASS
CHANGES LITTLE AND IN FACT...PWATS ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
CHECKING IN LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. LOWERED MINS TOWARD COOLER MEX
GUIDANCE AND ADDED MENTION OF FROST. COOLEST READINGS IN LOW 30S WILL
BE FOR THE INTERIOR.
BY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW TROUGH OR AT LEAST A PORTION OF IT
RETROGRADING WEST BETWEEN UPPER RIDGES OVER MANITOBA/NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS FM MODELS
THAT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE THIS WEEK WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND TO BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST EASTERN
PART OF CWA. TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN COULD BE FURTHER COMPLICATED
BY TROPICAL SYSTEM JOAQUIN LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OR ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER 1040MB CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
WILL KEEP RIDGE AND DRY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
AT LEAST FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. AGREEMENT DECREASES BY LATER
WEEKEND DUE TO HOW FAR WEST MODELS BRING SFC LOW TIED INTO THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING NORTH FM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. 00Z RUNS VARY WILDLY FM
STRONGER SFC LOW AS FAR WEST AS GEORGIAN BAY PER THE GFS AND MORE
OVER THE EAST COAST FM THE GEM-NH AND ECMWF. THOUGH GFS SOLUTION IS
NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN IT HAS SHOWED IT OCCASIONALLY IN
THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT GEM-NH SHOWED A DAY AGO.
GIVEN THE VOLITILITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL
STAY WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS WHICH SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAINLY OVER THE EAST CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY COOL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES
DURING THE DAYTIME AND MID 30S TO MID 40S DURING THE NIGHTS. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 25KT.
INCOMING CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
TONIGHT/TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
WITH ONE COLD FRONT EXITING LAKE SUPERIOR NOW...A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. PRES RISES ALONG WITH INCREASING
OVERWATER INSTABILITY AS COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL
RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT TONIGHT AFTER THE SECOND
COLD FRONT PASSES. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WRN
LAKE AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT W TO E TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE UPPER
LAKES. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE ENE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...IT
WILL EXTEND A RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE
THE RIDGE MAY BE SITUATED A LITTLE FARTHER N THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...EASTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME BRISK INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT
TIMES DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MIZ002-004-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
922 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
.UPDATE...
QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FINALLY FILTER
IN. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE N. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER AL SLOWLY MOVING TO THE E...KEEPING OUR REGION IN NW FLOW
ALOFT. NRLY SFC WINDS WILL FILTER IN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVERNIGHT. 00Z
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT...WITH PW`S ONLY AROUND
1.5 INCHES AT KJAN AND AROUND 1-1.2 INCHES AT KLZK/KSHV. THIS DRIER
AIR FROM THE NW WILL FILTER IN BRINGING IN VERY NICE CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THERE IS
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT MAY FILTER IN FROM THE N AND GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE WHILE LINGERING IN THE E...WHICH THE HRRR INDICATES.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. OVERALL THIS
SHOULD NOT HINDER LOWS MUCH IF ANY BUT SOME WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THEY COULD FALL IF LIGHTER WINDS
EXISTED. TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO BETTER THE TEMP CURVE.
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LAYER OF STRATOCU JUST NORTH
OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR THAT WILL DROP SOUTH TONIGHT AND LOWER TO
MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES BY 11Z THU. MVFR CIGS WL LAST
UNTIL 15Z BEFORE VFR CONDS RESUME. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WL DEVELOP
AFTER 15Z THU AS WELL. /22/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE ARKLAMISS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...THUS NO PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER
70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. /27/
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT UPPER LOW INTERACTION WITH
"JOAQUIN" OFF THE EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN A RATHER COOL STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. IN FACT...MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED BACK A LITTLE WEST WITH THE PIVOTING UPPER LOW
CENTER...SUGGESTING SOME LOWER CLOUDS MAY WRAP AROUND INTO AT LEAST
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IF CLOUDS
CAN WRAP AROUND ENOUGH TO LIMIT SUNSHINE A GREAT DEAL IN SOME EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY OR SATURDAY IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY THAT HIGHS COULD FAIL TO REACH 70 DEGREES THERE. BUT
GIVEN THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND JOAQUIN (WHICH HAS
TO TAKE PLACE IN THE COMING DAYS) IT IS NOT YET WISE TO PLACE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT UPPER LOW POSITIONING IN ANY PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST.
PROBABLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND DEFINITELY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND IN HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR OVER THIS
STRETCH ALTHOUGH BETTER ANTICIPATED NIGHTLY RAD COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL. AT THIS JUNCTURE IT APPEARS ANY
DECENT RAIN CHANCES WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY (AT THE VERY
EARLIEST) TO RETURN. /BB/
FIRE WEATHER...CURRENT THINKING IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS TO TRIM DOWN ELEVATED AREAS OF HIGHER FIRE
DANGER TO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND TO ALSO TRIM DOWN
THE LIMITED REGIONS. AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS ALABAMA...THIS
WILL HELP BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST. MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS...WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN ZONES WHICH WILL HELP KEEP CONDITIONS MORE MOIST AND COOLER.
AT THIS TIME...IT ALSO APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL IN THE
WESTERN AREAS AND MIXING MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY CLOUDS THERE AS
WELL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS...WHICH WONT HELP CURRENT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RH VALUES MAY BE
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND CURRENT FIRE DANGER INDICES ARE
NOT AS DRASTIC AS WAS PREVIOUSLY THE CASE. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...WILL CONTINUE TO SCALE DOWN THE FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE
HWO/GRAPHICS. IF TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO WARM HIGHER IN THE WEST AND
SOME GREATER MIXING CAN OCCUR THEN A HIGHER FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST IN
THE WESTERN COUNTIES/PARISHES. /28/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 62 80 55 76 / 3 0 0 1
MERIDIAN 63 77 57 73 / 3 4 3 3
VICKSBURG 61 82 54 75 / 3 0 0 1
HATTIESBURG 65 81 58 75 / 3 1 3 2
NATCHEZ 62 79 54 75 / 3 0 0 1
GREENVILLE 60 78 53 74 / 3 0 0 1
GREENWOOD 59 78 53 75 / 3 0 0 2
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1020 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.UPDATE...CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW VERY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS OVER THE DELTA. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH HI-TEMPS IN
THE LOW 80S. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED
RECENTLY...AND HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FEEL THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AT LEAST
CHANCE RAINSHOWERS IS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED THE
WEATHER AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER
THAN THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK./15/
.DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT "WET" WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE ARKLAMISS
HAS UNDER-ACHIEVED IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...AND WITH DRIER AIR POISED
TO MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK...WE EXPECT FIRE
WEATHER DANGER TO BE ON THE INCREASE.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...RECENT NWP MODEL OUTPUT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
AND ACCURATE WITH THE SHORT TERM SCENARIO. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE UPPER TX COAST/SW LA IS NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF OPENING UP...AND IT SHOULD SHEAR EASTWARD AS HEIGHT FALLS
SEND A A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES AND WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS GIVEN DAYTIME
HEATING BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED TO GIVE WEIGHT TO THE
DRIER HRRR GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE AND HAVE CUT BACK ON
CONSENSUS POPS SOME...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT HRRR IS LOOKING A BIT
WETTER. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKY GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION FOR SOME CLOUD BREAKS AGAIN AND HAVE FOLLOWED A WARMER
BLEND OF GUIDANCE BASED ON WHAT TRANSPIRED MONDAY. /EC/
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY HAS FAILED TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD HELPFUL PRECIP DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS TIGHTENING AROUND A SOLUTION WHERE BAROCLINIC
INTERACTION OF A WEAK EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH NEWLY-FORMED TS
JOAQUIN STRENGTHENS SAID TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL JOAQUIN COULD BE A MAJOR WEATHER-MAKER
FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE THE COMING WEEKEND IS OVER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY HIGH IT WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...THE MENTIONED SYNOPTIC INTERACTION WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SERIOUS PATTERN
AMPLIFICATION...LIKELY RESULTING IN A FEW DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
OF COURSE THESE COLD FRONTS WILL USHER IN SOME RELATIVELY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SPECTER OF
CASCADING DROUGHT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ARKLAMISS (EXCEPT
MAYBE IN PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MS) THIS PATTERN HAS POTENTIAL TO
INCREASE FIRE DANGER MARKEDLY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECASTS DO NOT
SHOW DAYTIME RH VALUES DROPPING OFF BELOW 25 PERCENT IN THE LONG
RANGE ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES)
IF DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BE DEEPER THAN NWP MODELS ANTICIPATE AT
THIS JUNCTURE. DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH...ADDING TO THE CONCERN. FOR THIS PACKAGE WE HAVE INTRODUCED
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND THIS
RISK IN TIME AND SPACE IF FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE PATTERN SETTING UP LATE
THIS WEEK COULD DIG IN AND LAST THROUGH THE DEFINED LONG TERM PERIOD
IF BAROCLINIC TROUGH INTERACTION WITH JOAQUIN IS EXTREME AND
PERSISTENT. OF COURSE THAT WOULD ONLY WORSEN DROUGHT AND PROLONG
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER...WHILE A BRIEFER INTERACTION
WOULD ALLOW AMPLIFICATION TO BREAK DOWN MORE QUICKLY AND PERHAPS
BRING BACK SOME RAIN CHANCES BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN LIFTING BUT REMAIN
MVFR TO IFR. EXPECT THESE LOW CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BACK TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
BUT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS WITH RAINFALL...DONT EXPECT MUCH AND WILL
KEEP SOME VCSH/SHRA IN TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE MVFR TO IFR
CATEGORIES POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. /28/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 83 68 83 63 / 39 24 26 6
MERIDIAN 83 67 82 62 / 36 31 41 14
VICKSBURG 83 67 84 61 / 41 23 10 4
HATTIESBURG 85 69 86 65 / 33 29 37 16
NATCHEZ 83 67 84 62 / 35 23 10 6
GREENVILLE 84 68 83 60 / 40 26 10 5
GREENWOOD 84 67 81 59 / 45 28 16 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
/EC/BB/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
453 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT "WET" WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE ARKLAMISS HAS UNDER-
ACHIEVED IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...AND WITH DRIER AIR POISED TO MOVE IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK...WE EXPECT FIRE WEATHER DANGER TO
BE ON THE INCREASE.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...RECENT NWP MODEL OUTPUT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
AND ACCURATE WITH THE SHORT TERM SCENARIO. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE UPPER TX COAST/SW LA IS NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF OPENING UP...AND IT SHOULD SHEAR EASTWARD AS HEIGHT FALLS
SEND A A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES AND WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS GIVEN DAYTIME
HEATING BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED TO GIVE WEIGHT TO THE
DRIER HRRR GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE AND HAVE CUT BACK ON
CONSENSUS POPS SOME...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT HRRR IS LOOKING A BIT
WETTER. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKY GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION FOR SOME CLOUD BREAKS AGAIN AND HAVE FOLLOWED A WARMER
BLEND OF GUIDANCE BASED ON WHAT TRANSPIRED MONDAY. /EC/
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY HAS FAILED TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD HELPFUL PRECIP DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS TIGHTENING AROUND A SOLUTION WHERE BAROCLINIC
INTERACTION OF A WEAK EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH NEWLY-FORMED TS
JOAQUIN STRENGTHENS SAID TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL JOAQUIN COULD BE A MAJOR WEATHER-MAKER
FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE THE COMING WEEKEND IS OVER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY HIGH IT WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...THE MENTIONED SYNOPTIC INTERACTION WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SERIOUS PATTERN
AMPLIFICATION...LIKELY RESULTING IN A FEW DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
OF COURSE THESE COLD FRONTS WILL USHER IN SOME RELATIVELY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SPECTER OF
CASCADING DROUGHT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ARKLAMISS (EXCEPT
MAYBE IN PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MS) THIS PATTERN HAS POTENTIAL TO
INCREASE FIRE DANGER MARKEDLY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECASTS DO NOT
SHOW DAYTIME RH VALUES DROPPING OFF BELOW 25 PERCENT IN THE LONG
RANGE ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES)
IF DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BE DEEPER THAN NWP MODELS ANTICIPATE AT
THIS JUNCTURE. DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH...ADDING TO THE CONCERN. FOR THIS PACKAGE WE HAVE INTRODUCED
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND THIS
RISK IN TIME AND SPACE IF FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE PATTERN SETTING UP LATE
THIS WEEK COULD DIG IN AND LAST THROUGH THE DEFINED LONG TERM PERIOD
IF BAROCLINIC TROUGH INTERACTION WITH JOAQUIN IS EXTREME AND
PERSISTENT. OF COURSE THAT WOULD ONLY WORSEN DROUGHT AND PROLONG
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER...WHILE A BRIEFER INTERACTION
WOULD ALLOW AMPLIFICATION TO BREAK DOWN MORE QUICKLY AND PERHAPS
BRING BACK SOME RAIN CHANCES BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...CIGS HAVE LOWERED AGAIN THIS MORNING. IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES
EXIST MAINLY EAST OF THE GWO-HKS/JAN CORRIDOR WHERE SOME PATCHY
AREAS OF IFR FOG ARE ALSO OCCURRING. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO BREAK AND
MIX UPWARD TO MAINLY VFR CATEGORY LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN AS
SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOP. THE PATTERN SHOULD REPEAT ITSELF AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT DRIER AIR PROMISES MORE OPTIMISTIC
FORECASTS AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 83 68 83 63 / 39 24 26 6
MERIDIAN 83 67 82 62 / 36 31 41 14
VICKSBURG 83 67 84 61 / 41 23 10 4
HATTIESBURG 85 69 86 65 / 33 29 37 16
NATCHEZ 83 67 84 62 / 35 23 10 6
GREENVILLE 84 68 83 60 / 40 26 10 5
GREENWOOD 84 67 81 59 / 45 28 16 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
/EC/BB/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
352 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2015
Upper TROF exists edging the upper Midwest early this morning with
an upper LOW straddling the border between TX and LA. Rich
Gulf of Mexico moisture is streaming northward on the eastern flank
of this LOW towards the mid-MS and lower-OH river valleys, and along
with upper level disturbances meandering north, have resulted in an
outbreak of showers with isolated thunder in areas to the S and E of
STL metro. A surface cold front, representing the leading edge of
seasonably cool Autumn air, extended from east-central IA, near the
Quad Cities, to the northwest corner of MO, and into northern KS.
Our region remains on the warm side of the front, however, with
readings this hour in the lower 60s for areas that have mostly clear
skies to the N and W of STL metro, and the upper 60s and lower 70s
elsewhere that are cloudy.
The upper LOW well to our south is expected to weaken and open
during today, but its primary effect on our region will not change
much, with it continuing to supply rich moisture, especially for
areas S and E of STL metro, with the better moisture and imbedded
upper level disturbances becoming more shunted to the E with time.
It still looks like a round of occasional showers will occur for
areas to the E of STL metro this morning with this area fading
towards midday-early afternoon.
In the meantime, the cold front to our north will continue to drop
towards our region as flow aloft veers more northwesterly with
passage of the TROF to our north. It will just take much of the day
today in order to do it, and will not pass thru with too much
fanfare or identity as winds ahead of it are also expected to become
more northerly with time as the LOW to our south pulls out-opens up.
With what should be greatly weakening low level moisture
convergence in the frontal zone, pcpn is expected to lessen with
time with not much left by the time pcpn associated with the front
does reach our forecast area and only have low chance category PoPs
as a result. Actually, our better rain chances with the frontal
zone, such as they are, look to occur later this afternoon and
perhaps into this evening, as scattered showers near the I-70
corridor and pushing to the south this evening.
Thunder with any of this activity will be isolated and should be
confined to areas S and E of STL metro.
Temps will be highest in a corridor just N and W of STL metro,
including central MO, where rain chances are least, will take
the longest to cloud up with a slow moving front--with maxes near
80. Temps will struggle to rise for areas S and E of STL metro
where clouds will be thickest and rain chances greatest this
morning, and should see maxes from 70-75.
TES
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
FA will remain on the northern fringes of the upper low drifting
into the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow, while upper trof
pushing into the upper Great Lakes will allow cold front that
approaching northern sections of the FA late tonight to ooze
across the region during the day. Some PoPs will be tied to both
these features, but I`m really not sure that the 12z based MOS
from either the NAM or GFS have a real good handle on the expected
precip threat and/or trends.
Mass and moisture fields would certainly suggest that southeast
sections of the CWA will be on the northern fringes of the precip
associated with the southern system on Tuesday, which also suggests
that some MOS numbers in this section of the FA may be a bit too
high (and this has certainly been the case for the past several
days). However, the last few hours of the last several HRRR runs
suggest precip blossoming very late tonight as far north to near the
I44-I70 corridor...roughly near the northern trofing associated with
the upper low. I have upped PoPs some over the southeast half of
the CWA, but ultimately expect a pretty sharp PoP gradient that will
be resolved in the nowcast time frame.
Meanwhile across the north, expect a fairly large band of showers
along and especially north of the cold front just north of our FA
early Tuesday, with the showers working southeast and gradually
diminishing in coverage with time as the cold front works across the
region. Some low post-frontal shower threat will likely linger into
the evening hours before the drier air behind the front scours out
the low level moisture.
The latest 12z guidance is continuing the trend of the last few days
of being more bullish deepening the UA trof over the eastern CONUS
during the latter half of the week, which in turn allows for a
stronger intrusion of the Canadian high into the mid-Mississippi
Valley. Based on progged 850MB thermal profiles, temperatures will
have a decidely autumn feel...with highs dropping into the 60s and
lows tumbling into the 40s across the entire region Friday-Sunday.
With the high progged to exert greater dominance in the weather over
the region, it would appear that precip chances will be fairly low.
Specifics in the medium range UA progs are hard to pin down as
solutions are noisy and chaotic to say the least...but there does
seem to be some agreement that WAA will develop over the Plains
Friday night, with associated shower threat possibly working into
western/sw portions of the FA Sat-Sun.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Light fog is possible at KCOU towards
daybreak. Lgt/var winds at both KCOU and KUIN will become
northerly to northeasterly after fropa this morning. Post-frontal
MVFR stratus is expected and sprinkles are also possible.
Specifics for KSUS, KCPS: Showers worked a bit farther north than
previously anticipated and may reach KCPS within the next hour.
Any rain will decrease the T-Td spread at KCPS and make fog more
likely towards daybreak. T-Td spread is already low enough at KSUS
to add a mention of fog towards daybreak. Otherwise, lgt/var winds
will become northerly to northeasterly after fropa later this
morning and increase to around 12 kts. Post-frontal MVFR stratus
is expected and sprinkles are also possible during the day.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered showers have been making slow
northward progress and later shifts may need to add VCSH if any
stations south of Lambert start reporting rain reaching the
ground. Lgt/var winds will become northerly to northeasterly today
after fropa. Post-frontal MVFR stratus is expected and sprinkles
are also possible during the day.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1158 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 943 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
Updated forecast to bring scattered showers northwest of I-44 in
Missouri and I-70 in Illinois. Showers have persisted this evening
in area of low level moisture convergence underneath mid level
trough axis extending northward from upper low currently over the
Lower Mississippi Valley. CAMS are showing that these showers
will persist through the night, so expanded the PoPs accordingly.
Temperatures will likely not fall off too much tonight given the
clouds and current dewpoints.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
Forecast area continues to get squeezed between upper level
shortwave energy that is retrograding back to the north towards
forecast area and next cold front moving in from the northwest.
Showers currently trying to move into our far southern counties as
of 20z. So will initially see isolated/scattered showers develop and
advect north into forecast area through this evening and into the
overnight hours. In the meantime, cold front will move closer to
region from the northwest, but will not see any precipitation from
it until after 12z Tuesday, just an increase in cloud cover. Because
of this weather pattern, winds will be light and variable. As for
overnight lows, once again to remain about 10 degrees above normal,
in the low to mid 60s.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
FA will remain on the northern fringes of the upper low drifting
into the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow, while upper trof
pushing into the upper Great Lakes will allow cold front that
approaching northern sections of the FA late tonight to ooze
across the region during the day. Some PoPs will be tied to both
these features, but I`m really not sure that the 12z based MOS
from either the NAM or GFS have a real good handle on the expected
precip threat and/or trends.
Mass and moisture fields would certainly suggest that southeast
sections of the CWA will be on the northern fringes of the precip
associated with the southern system on Tuesday, which also suggests
that some MOS numbers in this section of the FA may be a bit too
high (and this has certainly been the case for the past several
days). However, the last few hours of the last several HRRR runs
suggest precip blossoming very late tonight as far north to near the
I44-I70 corridor...roughly near the northern trofing associated with
the upper low. I have upped PoPs some over the southeast half of
the CWA, but ultimately expect a pretty sharp PoP gradient that will
be resolved in the nowcast time frame.
Meanwhile across the north, expect a fairly large band of showers
along and especially north of the cold front just north of our FA
early Tuesday, with the showers working southeast and gradually
diminishing in coverage with time as the cold front works across the
region. Some low post-frontal shower threat will likely linger into
the evening hours before the drier air behind the front scours out
the low level moisture.
The latest 12z guidance is continuing the trend of the last few days
of being more bullish deepening the UA trof over the eastern CONUS
during the latter half of the week, which in turn allows for a
stronger intrusion of the Canadian high into the mid-Mississippi
Valley. Based on progged 850MB thermal profiles, temperatures will
have a decidely autumn feel...with highs dropping into the 60s and
lows tumbling into the 40s across the entire region Friday-Sunday.
With the high progged to exert greater dominance in the weather over
the region, it would appear that precip chances will be fairly low.
Specifics in the medium range UA progs are hard to pin down as
solutions are noisy and chaotic to say the least...but there does
seem to be some agreement that WAA will develop over the Plains
Friday night, with associated shower threat possibly working into
western/sw portions of the FA Sat-Sun.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Light fog is possible at KCOU towards
daybreak. Lgt/var winds at both KCOU and KUIN will become
northerly to northeasterly after fropa this morning. Post-frontal
MVFR stratus is expected and sprinkles are also possible.
Specifics for KSUS, KCPS: Showers worked a bit farther north than
previously anticipated and may reach KCPS within the next hour.
Any rain will decrease the T-Td spread at KCPS and make fog more
likely towards daybreak. T-Td spread is already low enough at KSUS
to add a mention of fog towards daybreak. Otherwise, lgt/var winds
will become northerly to northeasterly after fropa later this
morning and increase to around 12 kts. Post-frontal MVFR stratus
is expected and sprinkles are also possible during the day.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered showers have been making slow
northward progress and later shifts may need to add VCSH if any
stations south of Lambert start reporting rain reaching the
ground. Lgt/var winds will become northerly to northeasterly today
after fropa. Post-frontal MVFR stratus is expected and sprinkles
are also possible during the day.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1138 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION WITH SEVERAL PV
ANOMALIES ROTATING AROUND IT. IN ADDITION...POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LOW OVER THE E PAC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PV CONNECTION TO THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. CLOSER TO HOME...WEAKER PV ANOMALY
MOVING ACROSS SRN WY ATTM GENERATING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS
ERN WY...WITH ISOLD SHRA/-TSRA IN PORTIONS OF NC NEBR ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAKENING MID LEVEL FGEN ACROSS THAT AREA. SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARLY STALLED FROM NEAR LIMON CO TO NORTH OF GLD TO JUST
S OF EAR TO S OF YANKTON SD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
NEW COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD OVERNIGHT WITH
MOST OF WESTERN AND NC NEBR REMAINING IN THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ATTENDANT TO A
EWD ADVANCING PV ANOMALY AS MENTIONED WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN
SD/NRN NEBR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT
OVERNIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AREA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
REMAINS PRESENT ON THE 305/310K LEVELS. ELEVATED WEAK TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS BROWN...ROCK AND HOLT COUNTIES
STILL ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FGEN WITHIN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. INTEGRATING THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OVERNIGHT YIELDS AN
AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA CURRENTLY OVER SWRN SD TO MOVE ACROSS NRN
NEBR BUT THEN SOME MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE 06- 09Z TIME FRAME THAT MAY ALLOW
REDEVELOPMENT WWD. MEANWHILE THE HRRR SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE SWD ADVANCING FRONT PRIOR TO 06Z AND THEN PUSHING SEWD
OVERNIGHT. WITH SEVERAL SMALL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TIMING AND LOCATION OF NEW DEVELOPMENT BECOMES DIFFICULT. HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIP...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STRONGER THAN WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD LOW VSBYS. HENCE HAVE SIDED ON PATCHY FOG
MENTION.
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY SO
WOULD EXPECT OCCASIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA ESPECIALLY IN SWRN
NEBR. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN CONSIDERABLY DUE TO LOW CLOUD COVER
AND ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
MODELS AGAIN COMING IN COOLER. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
NAM FOR THE MID TERM AND GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM. TOMORROW
NIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST SEVERAL WEAK WAVES MOVING
THROUGH RIDGE. ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH LLJ AND
SOME LIFT. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH DRIZZLE TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF WARMER THAN GFS. STRONG WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WITH SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COOL AT
THE SURFACE WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT AS WARNER AIR AT THE SURFACE TO
THE SOUTH LIFTED OVER THE COOLER AIR. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER
NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. TRANSITIONING TO RAINSHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. SHOWERS END
SUNDAY WITH A WARMUP INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EAST AND
70S WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. 50S AND 60S SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL AFTER
07Z IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING TIF...BBW AND
LBF. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM BOTH PRIMARY MODELS SUPPORTS
THAT FOR BBW AND LBF AND ONE OF THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT BULLETIN
SUPPORTS IT FOR VTN. THOUGH CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY...THE INSTRUMENT CEILINGS SHOULD REACH MARGINAL VISUAL
CONDITIONS LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...CEILINGS
OF 3000-5000 FEET AGL WILL DOMINATE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
139 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SHOWERS
THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARD STEADY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WILL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF ESSEX
COUNTY NEW YORK AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE REGION DRIES OUT BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SHOWERS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY...AND THEN TREND COOLER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EDT TUESDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE FIRST BAND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOWERS IS SLOWING MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SUPPORTING THE UPGRADE TO MENTION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL SO I DID GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THAT. THE HRRR CAPTURES THE
LOCATION OF THE FIRST PRECIP SHIELD QUITE WELL AND SO I BLENDED
THE HRRR INTO THE FORECAST AND OTHERWISE LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALONE. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS
AND THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL LATE INTO THE EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...CURRENT SYNOPTIC
SETUP FEATURES A CLOSED MID- UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A DEVELOPING LARGE- SCALE CONFLUENT
DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS CONFLUENCE IS
OCCURRING ON WRN PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME AROUND THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GFS AND NAM
SHOW STRENGTHENING 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES FROM S-CENTRAL NY NEWD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
VERMONT. WITHIN THIS AXIS...PW VALUES ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75"
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 11-12 KFT. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES
A CLOUDY DAY WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS...WITH
RAINFALL BECOMING MORE STEADY...WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER WHILE
DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE SRN TIER OF NY NEWD INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BECOME
FOCUSED FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST, TO
INCLUDE ESSEX COUNTY NY. THERE IS ALSO INDICATIONS IN THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (CAPE
VALUES 100-300 J/KG) WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN HALF OF VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...IN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC REGIME. NOT
EXPECTING LIGHTNING...BUT COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS TO THE RAINFALL WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES THIS AFTN/EVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL VERMONT. THAT SAID...SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY TOWARD 21-00Z THIS EVENING...AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
SEPARATE FOCUS AND BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES PER BTV-4KM AND 12KM WRF RUNS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL AMTS FOR THE 12-HR PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 0.40" ACROSS FAR NRN
NY...TO 0.6-0.7" ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S- CENTRAL VT...WITH AROUND 0.50" OR SO IN THE BTV AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING WARM BY LATE SEPTEMBER STANDARDS.
CURRENTLY 70F AT BTV AT 08Z! DEEP-LAYER S TO SW FLOW AND CLOUD
COVER IS YIELDING EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 65-70F RANGE IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE VALLEY TEMPS CLIMB EARLY INTO THE LOWER
70S...AND THEN GENERALLY LEVEL OFF OR FALL SLIGHTLY WITH THICKER
CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING STEADY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. ANTECEDENT
SOILS ARE VERY DRY...SO WON/T SEE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS UNTIL WE GET
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED 06Z WED
THROUGH 06Z THU FOR ESSEX COUNTY NY AND CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT
ZONES. WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO FOCUS UVV AND CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PER 00Z GFS AND
00Z NAM...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. ALSO LOOKING
AT PW VALUES 1.7-1.8" ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS/WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 12 KFT FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES. SOME CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY ALSO PRESENT THROUGH
TONIGHT (CAPE 100-300 J/KG)...THOUGH IT WANES ON WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH DEVELOPING NORTH
WINDS. ALL IN ALL...INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR POTENTIAL 2-3"
RAINFALL...WITH HIGHEST AMTS LIKELY RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES.
SHOULD SEE A FEW SPOTS WITH AMOUNTS 3+" BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT...THEN A
BURST OF HIGHER RAINFALL RATES WITH WAVE LOW MOVING NEWD ALONG THE
FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT 12-18Z WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL RATES
PROGRESSIVELY LIGHTER TO THE NORTH AND WEST...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKING AT 80-100 POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND ALL BUT ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY.
SHOULD SEE RAINFALL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING POPS AND DEEPER LAYER NORTH WINDS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH
AND SUBSIDENCE MAY YIELD PARTIAL CLEARING - ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN AREAS SEEING CLEARING...SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN
BE EXPECTED. BRIEF DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT COULD SEE ABUNDANT MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLS JUST EAST OF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MERIDIONAL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO/TN VALLEYS RESULTS IN SHARPENING SLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES...WITH GENERALLY SMALL
DIURNAL RANGES AND OVERALL SLOW DOWNWARD TREND ON TEMPERATURES WITH
SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON N-NW WINDS.
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S....FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS NEAR 60F ON WEDNESDAY AND MID-UPR 50S FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A CLOSED
MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH EAST OF JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER CLOSED
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL
BE REFLECTED IN A LOW AROUND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSW TO THE SOUTHERN LOW
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT AS
THE SOUTHERN MID LEVEL LOW TRAVERSES NORTHWARD, THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WESTWARD, BRINGING RAIN THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM SE TO NW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MID LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AND THE NORTHERN MID LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTH AND EAST OUT OF
THE REGION.
MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS MID LEVEL LOW AND
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN WHICH COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS MORE OR LESS ABSORBS
JOAQUIN INTO THE MID-UPPER FLOW AND BRINGS THAT ENERGY AND MOISTURE
TO THE NORTHEAST USA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO
BRING STRONG SOUTHEAST - EAST WINDS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS ON WESTERN SLOPES AND VALLEYS.
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, KEEPS JOAQUIN ON ITS OWN AND OUT TO SEA,
WHILE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVELS UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...DELAYING ONSET OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY 6-12
HOURS FROM THE GFS. FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH.
OVERALL, NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. HAVE
GONE WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURE-WISE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERED GREATLY WITH SATURDAY 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C ON
THE GFS AND 4C-8C ON THE ECMWF. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME MAXES AND NEAR NORMAL MINS CONSIDERING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. THE RAIN
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK EASTWARD TO
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTH
AND NORTHEAST AFTER 03Z.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES
EXPECTED IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS WITH FRONTAL ZONE
AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE VERMONT TAF LOCATIONS.
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DRY AND VFR WITH
BRIEF WINDOW OF HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE ALLOWED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS 15-20 KTS THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY LESSENING TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES
OF 2-3 FEET SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY AFTERNOON...BUT VISIBILITY
WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE FREQUENT
SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY STEADY RAINFALL BY LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
VTZ007>012-018-019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
NYZ034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1232 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SHOWERS
THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARD STEADY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WILL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF ESSEX
COUNTY NEW YORK AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE REGION DRIES OUT BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SHOWERS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY...AND THEN TREND COOLER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EDT TUESDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE FIRST BAND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOWERS IS SLOWING MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SUPPORTING THE UPGRADE TO MENTION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL SO I DID GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THAT. THE HRRR CAPTURES THE
LOCATION OF THE FIRST PRECIP SHIELD QUITE WELL AND SO I BLENDED
THE HRRR INTO THE FORECAST AND OTHERWISE LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALONE. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS
AND THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL LATE INTO THE EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...CURRENT SYNOPTIC
SETUP FEATURES A CLOSED MID- UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A DEVELOPING LARGE- SCALE CONFLUENT
DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS CONFLUENCE IS
OCCURRING ON WRN PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME AROUND THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GFS AND NAM
SHOW STRENGTHENING 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES FROM S-CENTRAL NY NEWD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
VERMONT. WITHIN THIS AXIS...PW VALUES ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75"
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 11-12 KFT. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES
A CLOUDY DAY WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS...WITH
RAINFALL BECOMING MORE STEADY...WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER WHILE
DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE SRN TIER OF NY NEWD INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BECOME
FOCUSED FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST, TO
INCLUDE ESSEX COUNTY NY. THERE IS ALSO INDICATIONS IN THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (CAPE
VALUES 100-300 J/KG) WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN HALF OF VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...IN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC REGIME. NOT
EXPECTING LIGHTNING...BUT COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS TO THE RAINFALL WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES THIS AFTN/EVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL VERMONT. THAT SAID...SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY TOWARD 21-00Z THIS EVENING...AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
SEPARATE FOCUS AND BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES PER BTV-4KM AND 12KM WRF RUNS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL AMTS FOR THE 12-HR PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 0.40" ACROSS FAR NRN
NY...TO 0.6-0.7" ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S- CENTRAL VT...WITH AROUND 0.50" OR SO IN THE BTV AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING WARM BY LATE SEPTEMBER STANDARDS.
CURRENTLY 70F AT BTV AT 08Z! DEEP-LAYER S TO SW FLOW AND CLOUD
COVER IS YIELDING EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 65-70F RANGE IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE VALLEY TEMPS CLIMB EARLY INTO THE LOWER
70S...AND THEN GENERALLY LEVEL OFF OR FALL SLIGHTLY WITH THICKER
CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING STEADY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. ANTECEDENT
SOILS ARE VERY DRY...SO WON/T SEE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS UNTIL WE GET
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED 06Z WED
THROUGH 06Z THU FOR ESSEX COUNTY NY AND CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT
ZONES. WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO FOCUS UVV AND CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PER 00Z GFS AND
00Z NAM...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. ALSO LOOKING
AT PW VALUES 1.7-1.8" ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS/WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 12 KFT FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES. SOME CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY ALSO PRESENT THROUGH
TONIGHT (CAPE 100-300 J/KG)...THOUGH IT WANES ON WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH DEVELOPING NORTH
WINDS. ALL IN ALL...INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR POTENTIAL 2-3"
RAINFALL...WITH HIGHEST AMTS LIKELY RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES.
SHOULD SEE A FEW SPOTS WITH AMOUNTS 3+" BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT...THEN A
BURST OF HIGHER RAINFALL RATES WITH WAVE LOW MOVING NEWD ALONG THE
FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT 12-18Z WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL RATES
PROGRESSIVELY LIGHTER TO THE NORTH AND WEST...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKING AT 80-100 POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND ALL BUT ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY.
SHOULD SEE RAINFALL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING POPS AND DEEPER LAYER NORTH WINDS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH
AND SUBSIDENCE MAY YIELD PARTIAL CLEARING - ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN AREAS SEEING CLEARING...SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN
BE EXPECTED. BRIEF DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT COULD SEE ABUNDANT MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLS JUST EAST OF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MERIDIONAL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO/TN VALLEYS RESULTS IN SHARPENING SLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES...WITH GENERALLY SMALL
DIURNAL RANGES AND OVERALL SLOW DOWNWARD TREND ON TEMPERATURES WITH
SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON N-NW WINDS.
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S....FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS NEAR 60F ON WEDNESDAY AND MID-UPR 50S FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A CLOSED
MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH EAST OF JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER CLOSED
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL
BE REFLECTED IN A LOW AROUND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSW TO THE SOUTHERN LOW
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT AS
THE SOUTHERN MID LEVEL LOW TRAVERSES NORTHWARD, THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WESTWARD, BRINGING RAIN THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM SE TO NW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MID LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AND THE NORTHERN MID LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTH AND EAST OUT OF
THE REGION.
MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS MID LEVEL LOW AND
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN WHICH COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS MORE OR LESS ABSORBS
JOAQUIN INTO THE MID-UPPER FLOW AND BRINGS THAT ENERGY AND MOISTURE
TO THE NORTHEAST USA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO
BRING STRONG SOUTHEAST - EAST WINDS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS ON WESTERN SLOPES AND VALLEYS.
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, KEEPS JOANQUIN ON ITS OWN AND OUT TO SEA,
WHILE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVELS UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...DELAYING ONSET OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY 6-12
HOURS FROM THE GFS. FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH.
OVERALL, NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. HAVE
GONE WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURE-WISE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERED GREATLY WITH SATURDAY 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C ON
THE GFS AND 4C-8C ON THE ECMWF. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME MAXES AND NEAR NORMAL MINS CONSIDERING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR TO VFR
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. KMSS AND KSLK
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MVFR-IFR CIGS WITH LOWERING VSBYS
WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. MEANWHILE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS...WITH KRUT DETERIORATING FIRST
AS STEADIER RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE SW TO NE WITH MVFR CIGS.
AS THE STEADY PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON, MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES WHILE
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING. MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL CAUSING
IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT KMPV WHICH WILL BE IN HEAVIER BAND OF
RAINFALL. WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES
EXPECTED IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS WITH FRONTAL ZONE
AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE VERMONT TAF LOCATIONS.
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DRY AND VFR WITH
BRIEF WINDOW OF HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE ALLOWED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS 15-20 KTS THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY LESSENING TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES
OF 2-3 FEET SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY AFTERNOON...BUT VISIBILITY
WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE FREQUENT
SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY STEADY RAINFALL BY LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
VTZ007>012-018-019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
NYZ034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1249 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE
EAST WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUE...SHRA CONT TO STREAM ONSHORE ESPCLY FROM HAT
S. KEPT HIGHER POPS ALONG CST WITH LOWER POPS INLAND REST OF
NIGHT PER RDR TRENDS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BUT SIGNIF CLOUD
COVER MAY LIMIT THREAT FOR DENSE FOG.
PREV DISC...LATEST RADAR IMAGES CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE
CRYSTAL COAST. POPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH THIS UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS. THE LATEST 00Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDING SHOWS RICH EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC TO ABOUT 700 MB WITH PW
OF 2.30 INCHES...SOME 2 TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA PROVIDING THE
LIFT FOR THE SHOWERS.
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
70S. SHOWER CHANCES AND ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD RAMP BACK UP AGAIN
NEAR THE COAST AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL CONTINUES TO BRING MORE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN THE AREA. FOR INLAND AREAS...THREAT FOR FOG
WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AS LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS COMBINED WITH TODAY`S RAINFALL ACT TO PRIME THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...ANOTHER UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY DAY ON TUESDAY
EXPECTED WITH SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES
EXPECTED. SHOWERS SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE
DAY...TRANSITIONING INLAND AS COASTAL TROUGH MIGRATES INLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM EASTERLY TO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY...AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL TRANSPIRE...WITH
CAPE VALS AOA 2000 J/KG EXPECTED. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AREA WIDE WITH
TD`S UNCOMFORABLY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE PLAGUED BY DIFFERENCES AND A LACK OF RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN WITH TD #11 IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH AND IT`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN US. THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME DISRUPTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THEN STALLS OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT A
MODERATE N/NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE LONG RANGE TRACK
OF TD #11 IS UNCERTAIN, MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BE DRAWN
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW
VALUES AOA 2" FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD ALSO BE PICKED UP BY THE
UPPER TROUGH AND TRANSPORTED TO THE NORTH INTO OUR REGION. THE
MODELS UNDERSTANDABLY ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE
THIS COMPLEX SITUATION, THUS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
DRIER AIR COULD FILTER INTO THE REGION SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
THE TIMING OF THIS IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY THEN
POTENTIAL MUCH COOLER ESP OVER INLAND AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHERE SOME DEEP INLAND AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH 70.
NEXT WEEKEND...THE KEY TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA PUSHING THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME OFFSHORE AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO FINALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
WHEN THIS OCCURS WILL NEED MAINTAIN CHANCE LOW/SLIGHT POPS INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST. A DRIER DEEP W/NW
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER AS DEEP TROF MOVES EAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
THRU EARLY TO MID MORN. LOW LVLS SATURATED AND ALREADY SEE GOOD
DEAL OF IFR ST...THIS SHLD CONT AND POSS LOWER SOME AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCT SHRA MAY LIMIT FOG BUT
SHLD GET SOME ESPCLY WELL INLAND. FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED TO
BURN OFF/LIFT AROUND MID MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SCT TO POSS
NUMEROUS SHRA THRU THE DAY. WILL LIKELY SEE MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
THRU THE AFTN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, LOCATION AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS
PERIOD BUT PERIODIC SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS
THAT FORM AS TROPICAL AIR AGAIN IS DRAWN BACK INTO EASTERN NC.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUE...NO CHANGES WITH LARGE E SWELLS KEEPING SEAS
IN SCA RANGE. E WINDS EXPECTED TO GRAD DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE SE
TODAY AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SFC TRF MOVES
INLAND.
PREV DISC...MINOR TWEAKS WERE DONE WITH THIS UPDATE...BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS E/NE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. SAME GENERAL PATTERN
PERSISTS WITH EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO ELEVATE SEAS...THOUGH
THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
IN THE 7 TO 9 FOOT RANGE AS OBSERVED AREA BUOYS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SEAS WILL VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH
STILL REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 9 FOOT RANGE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN NEAR THE COAST FINALLY BEGINS TO MIGRATE INLAND...WITH WINDS
VEERING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS A MOSTLY PERSISTENT MODERATE N/NE FLOW
AND ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE OVER THE NC WATERS IN A COMPLEX SURFACE
WEATHER PATTERN. LONG RANGE TRACK OF TD#11 STILL UNCERTAIN BUT MAY
HELP ENHANCE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE NC COAST LATE THIS WEEK.
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO TEMPORARILY DIMINISH AS A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS
MAY TURN SOUTHERLY FOR A BRIEF TIME AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO
DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED. BEHIND THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KT THURSDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO (BRIEFLY) SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT ON WEDNESDAY THEN AS
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SEAS
WILL BUILD BACK TO 6+ FT. OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS
SEAS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1240 AM TUE...CONTINUED VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDES WILL LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING ACROSS CARTERET COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST TUE
MORNING. HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS AS 5 TO 8 FOOT SURF HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...RF/SK/BM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...RF/BTC
MARINE...RF/BTC/TL/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WHERE THERE IS NO CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERED THEM A BIT WHERE THERE IS. ALSO INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY
BASED ON LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND MAV GUIDANCE. THE RAP SEEMS TO
BE HANDLING CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES WELL...SO BASED
AFTERNOON FORECAST TRENDS ON THOSE LATEST RUNS. OTHER THAN
THAT...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR
THIS UPDATE. DID LET THE FROST ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT...AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH THE RISING SUN. ALSO TWEAKED
CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE 06Z
NAM...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. WITH A FEW LOCALES HAVING DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 20S. THE SOUTHWEST IS THE EXCEPTION AS RETURN FLOW IS
ADVECTING SOME LOW VFR AND MVFR CLOUDS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES HERE WERE IN THE LOWER 40S.
FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED. NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY WHICH EXPIRES AT 8 AM CDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CLOUD COVER IN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA - AFFECTING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS NEAR THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER NEARLY ALL
OF THE STATE...EXCEPT FOR THE VERY SOUTHWEST CORNER. TEMPERATURES
WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER 40S SOME
AREAS FAR SOUTH.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
AROUND SUNRISE...AND DRIFT TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WIND TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE STATE. LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND STRETCH ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO AROUND 70 IN THE WEST. THE SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING INTO THE 30S. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
A COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW AND BLOCKY PATTERN IS RESULTING IN LOWER THAN
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A HIGH SPREAD IN
THE ENVELOPE OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
A QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE COMES TO A HALT OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH OVER LOW REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THIS AREA. THE UPPER LOW THEN RETROGRADES BACK WEST INTO
SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME IN THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPECIFICS SUCH AS THE PLACEMENT OF QPF AS
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE VIGOROUS AND EXTENDS QPF FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. WILL STICK WITH A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPING CHANCE POPS
CONTAINED MAINLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL
PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY WHICH
WILL OVERTAKE THE SASKATCHEWAN UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...COMBINES WITH THE
STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
FINALLY MOVES OUT AND DRIES UP ON SUNDAY. AGAIN...THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED COOL CLOUDY
AND WET PERIOD ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE WETTEST...WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREAFTER
THE THREAT OF THUNDER LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
ON SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. AS CEILINGS LOWER TONIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AFT 06Z...INCLUDING
KBIS/KMOT. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO IFR OVER KISN/KDIK. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL OVER KJMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1145 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS SETS UP
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND A POTENTIAL PROLONGED WET PERIOD.
SO...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
WEEKEND AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DRAWS MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE STILL BUILDING IN. SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD AND RAIN SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO CREEP INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN AREA A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. TO THE NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD BE DRY. HRRR RUNS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN ARRIVES IN THE 6 TO 10
AM TIME IN SOUTHEAST. OPTIMISTICALLY SHOWED RAIN IN SE AFTER 8 AM
IN GRIDS/ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH COULD PEAK AT 1040 MB WITH
ABOUT +2 TO +3 SIGMA PRESSURE ANOMALIES BY EVENING. THE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MOSTLY RAIN FREE
DAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHIELD MOVING NORTHWARD. THE HRRR CLEARLY SHOWS
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES AND WORKING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. QUICKLY BROUGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND POPS COMING UP DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN
WILL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE ISSUE IS THE LOW PRESSURE AND THE CIRCULATION WITH HURRICANE
JOAQUIN. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW AND MASSIVE
ANTICYCLONE WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. THE
NCEP SREF SHOWS THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THE AFTERNOON. SO WE DEPICTED RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWED THIS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOCUSED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 60...COOLER NORTH...MILDER SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: WE NUDGED TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND
MODIFIED THE QPF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL RAIN EVENT SETTING
UP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PA TO START ON FRIDAY.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND ALSO
ADDED CHC OF RAIN INTO MONDAY.
ALSO LOWER TEMPS SOME AND UP WINDS.
MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT BACKING TO THE WEST BY LATE SAT.
THIS WOULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD MOVE WEST OF OUR AREA BY LATE SAT OR
EARLY SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING AT A STRONG EAST TO SE FLOW OF
AIR OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...HEAVY
RAIN ETC.
ALSO STILL SOME TIME TO DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTION
WITH WITH THE TROPICS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STALLED OUT FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL COAST WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO BE LIFTED OVER IT AND PULLED NWWD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWWD TD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
EVEN IF SOON TO BE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES A TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATL REGION PER THE EC AND LATEST TPC GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
AND BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW /WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS -4 TO -5
SIGMA EASTERLY LLVL WIND AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR/ WILL
TRANSPORT PULSE OF RAIN INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...UP AND OVER THE
VERY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS PENN. TEMPS SATURDAY...MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE
THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD EDGE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 15 DEG
IN SOME AREAS.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE MDT AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE NRN EDGE OF A 2 INCH/24 HOUR AREA OF RAIN SKIRTING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS A PRE TYPE EVENT...WITH MORE DIRECT EFFECTS /IF
ANY/ FROM JOAQUIN COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE N MTNS
ON NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST AT
03Z...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN MORE
FAVORABLE /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AIRFIELDS AND VFR IN
VICINITY OF KMDT/KLNS.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY
RISING CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS BY DAWN. LATEST SREF AND HRRR
IMPLY AT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY 06Z.
HOWEVER...BASED ON CIGS UPSTREAM ACROSS UPSTATE NY...FEEL IT MAY
TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN FRONTAL BNDRY TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE NORTHERLY WINDS
UP TONIGHT AT ARND 10KTS.
HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS PRESSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THU AFTN.
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KMDT/KLNS...WHERE SOME MDL DATA
INDICATES A RETURN OF -SHRA/MVFR CIGS ASSOC WITH QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID ATL COAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1140 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS SETS UP
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND A POTENTIAL PROLONGED WET PERIOD.
SO...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
WEEKEND AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DRAWS MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE STILL BUILDING IN. SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD AND RAIN SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO CREEP INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN AREA A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. TO THE NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD BE DRY. HRRR RUNS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN ARRIVES IN THE 6 TO 10
AM TIME IN SOUTHEAST. OPTIMISTICALLY SHOWED RAIN IN SE AFTER 8 AM
IN GRIDS/ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH COULD PEAK AT 1040 MB WITH
ABOUT +2 TO +3 SIGMA PRESSURE ANOMALIES BY EVENING. THE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MOSTLY RAIN FREE
DAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHIELD MOVING NORTHWARD. THE HRRR CLEARLY SHOWS
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES AND WORKING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. QUICKLY BROUGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND POPS COMING UP DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN
WILL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE ISSUE IS THE LOW PRESSURE AND THE CIRCULATION WITH HURRICANE
JOAQUIN. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW AND MASSIVE
ANTICYCLONE WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. THE
NCEP SREF SHOWS THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THE AFTERNOON. SO WE DEPICTED RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWED THIS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOCUSED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 60...COOLER NORTH...MILDER SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: WE NUDGED TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND
MODIFIED THE QPF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL RAIN EVENT SETTING
UP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PA TO START ON FRIDAY.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND ALSO
ADDED CHC OF RAIN INTO MONDAY.
ALSO LOWER TEMPS SOME AND UP WINDS.
MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT BACKING TO THE WEST BY LATE SAT.
THIS WOULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD MOVE WEST OF OUR AREA BY LATE SAT OR
EARLY SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING AT A STRONG EAST TO SE FLOW OF
AIR OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...HEAVY
RAIN ETC.
ALSO STILL SOME TIME TO DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTION
WITH WITH THE TROPICS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STALLED OUT FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL COAST WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO BE LIFTED OVER IT AND PULLED NWWD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWWD TD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
EVEN IF SOON TO BE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES A TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATL REGION PER THE EC AND LATEST TPC GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
AND BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW /WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS -4 TO -5
SIGMA EASTERLY LLVL WIND AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR/ WILL
TRANSPORT PULSE OF RAIN INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...UP AND OVER THE
VERY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS PENN. TEMPS SATURDAY...MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE
THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD EDGE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 15 DEG
IN SOME AREAS.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE MDT AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE NRN EDGE OF A 2 INCH/24 HOUR AREA OF RAIN SKIRTING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS A PRE TYPE EVENT...WITH MORE DIRECT EFFECTS /IF
ANY/ FROM JOAQUIN COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE N MTNS
ON NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS AT KBFD/KJST AT
03Z...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN MORE
FAVORABLE /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AIRFIELDS AND VFR IN
VICINITY OF KMDT/KLNS.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY
RISING CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS BY DAWN. LATEST SREF AND HRRR
IMPLY AT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY 06Z.
HOWEVER...BASED ON CIGS UPSTREAM ACROSS UPSTATE NY...FEEL IT MAY
TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN FRONTAL BNDRY TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE NORTHERLY WINDS
UP TONIGHT AT ARND 10KTS.
HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS PRESSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS BY THU AFTN. JUST A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS RETURNING TO KMDT/KLNS BY THU
EVENING...AS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKS WESTWARD FROM THE MID
ATL COAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1044 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS SETS UP
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND A POTENTIAL PROLONGED WET PERIOD.
SO...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
WEEKEND AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DRAWS MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE STILL BUILDING IN. SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD AND RAIN SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO CREEP INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN AREA A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. TO THE NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD BE DRY. HRRR RUNS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN ARRIVES IN THE 6 TO 10
AM TIME IN SOUTHEAST. OPTIMISTICALLY SHOWED RAIN IN SE AFTER 8 AM
IN GRIDS/ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH COULD PEAK AT 1040 MB WITH
ABOUT +2 TO +3 SIGMA PRESSURE ANOMALIES BY EVENING. THE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MOSTLY RAIN FREE
DAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHIELD MOVING NORTHWARD. THE HRRR CLEARLY SHOWS
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES AND WORKING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. QUICKLY BROUGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND POPS COMING UP DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN
WILL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE ISSUE IS THE LOW PRESSURE AND THE CIRCULATION WITH HURRICANE
JOAQUIN. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW AND MASSIVE
ANTICYCLONE WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. THE
NCEP SREF SHOWS THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THE AFTERNOON. SO WE DEPICTED RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWED THIS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOCUSED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 60...COOLER NORTH...MILDER SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: WE NUDGED TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND
MODIFIED THE QPF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL RAIN EVENT SETTING
UP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PA TO START ON FRIDAY.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND ALSO
ADDED CHC OF RAIN INTO MONDAY.
ALSO LOWER TEMPS SOME AND UP WINDS.
MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT BACKING TO THE WEST BY LATE SAT.
THIS WOULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD MOVE WEST OF OUR AREA BY LATE SAT OR
EARLY SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING AT A STRONG EAST TO SE FLOW OF
AIR OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...HEAVY
RAIN ETC.
ALSO STILL SOME TIME TO DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTION
WITH WITH THE TROPICS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STALLED OUT FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL COAST WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO BE LIFTED OVER IT AND PULLED NWWD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWWD TD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
EVEN IF SOON TO BE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES A TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATL REGION PER THE EC AND LATEST TPC GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
AND BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW /WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS -4 TO -5
SIGMA EASTERLY LLVL WIND AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR/ WILL
TRANSPORT PULSE OF RAIN INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...UP AND OVER THE
VERY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS PENN. TEMPS SATURDAY...MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE
THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD EDGE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 15 DEG
IN SOME AREAS.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE MDT AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE NRN EDGE OF A 2 INCH/24 HOUR AREA OF RAIN SKIRTING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS A PRE TYPE EVENT...WITH MORE DIRECT EFFECTS /IF
ANY/ FROM JOAQUIN COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING OVR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING
THE N MTNS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS AT KBFD AT 00Z...WHILE
DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE /MVFR/
CIGS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY
RISING CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MTNS BY DAWN. LATEST SREF AND HRRR
IMPLY AT RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS BY MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...BASED ON CIGS UPSTREAM ACROSS UPSTATE NY...FEEL IT MAY
TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN FRONTAL BNDRY TO
THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE NORTHERLY WINDS
UP TONIGHT AT ARND 10KTS WITH GUSTS THIS EVENING TO NR 20KTS AT
TIMES.
HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS PRESSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD ENSURE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
OF THURSDAY. JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS RETURNING
TO KMDT/KLNS BY THU EVENING...AS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKS
WESTWARD FROM THE MID ATL COAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
331 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE
TODAY...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. AN EXTENSIVE
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FOCUS ON THE
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL
LOW AFFECTS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
145 AM UPDATE...
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
WITH JUST SOME BRIEF AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...AHEAD OF
INCREASING PWATS AND THE NOSE OF A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE EARLY MORNING...MIN TEMPS 15-20 DEG
F ABOVE NORMAL LOWS...IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CONCERNING HEAVY RAIN THREAT LATER TODAY THROUGH WED...THERE IS
QUITE GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH A SLIGHTLY LESSER AGREEMENT OF THE
PRECISE LOCATION. A LARGE QPF SPREAD OF GREATER THAN A FACTOR OF 2
EXISTS BETWEEN THE VERY WET NAM...AND THE GFS/GEFS/SREF/EC. GFS IS
THE FURTHEST SE WITH THE QPF AXIS/FROM THE LAURELS TO NRN
POCONOS...WHILE THE EC HAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE NW AND
NCENT MTNS...75NM OR SO FURTHER NW.
AREA RIVERS AND STREAM BASIN CAN HANDLE QUITE A LOT OF RAIN
/3.5-4.5 INCHES OVER A 3-12 HOUR PERIOD/...WHICH IS WHERE THE BULK
OF MODEL STORM TOTAL QPF LIES. HOWEVER...THE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF
8-11 INCHES PAINTED BY THE NAM FROM NEAR KJST AND KIDI...NORTHEAST
TO KDUJ AND LELM WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY CAUSE SIGNIFCANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS. FEEL THAT THE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF THE EXCESSIVE QPF IS
OVERDONE ON THE NAM. HOWEVER...THE SYNPOTIC SETUP WITH PWAT
ANOMALIES OF AROUND 3 SIGMA...AND WELL-DEFINED/SLOW MOVING JET
ENTRANCE ABOVE THE SFC CFRONT...WILL COMBINE WITH GENERALLY LOW
CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG TO BRING SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING BANDS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED TSRA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES OVER A 12
HOUR PERIOD. WPC QPF FORECAST FOR THROUGH 48 HOURS IS 2.5 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PENN AND THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.
1045 PM UPDATE... INTERESTING TO WATCH THE NEW 00Z NAM COME
IN...BUT MOSTLY FOR WHAT IT SAYS FOR TUES/NIGHT. IN THE NEAR-
TERM...NO CHANGES FORSEEN AS THE SPRINKLES ARE WELL- HANDLED AND
REAL ORGANIZATION TO THE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.
745 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WANING ALREADY AND HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND.
THE SPRINKLES OUT THERE NOW MAY MAKE THE GROUND WET...BUT THEY ARE
ALSO MOVING ALONG QUICKLY. THEREFORE A 20 POP IS ALL THAT IS
NECESSARY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY 09Z...SOME
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SLIDE INTO THE NWRN COS.
PREV...
PLUME OF 1.5" PW POOLED AHEAD OF SHEARING 5H TROF WITHIN 850 MB
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS MAINTAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL WANE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WEAK FORCING IN VERY MOIST AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
ANY APPRECIABLE QPF TONIGHT...DESPITE THE COPIOUS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER AND SURGING DWPT WILL TRANSLATE TO A MILD
NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH MINS BTWN 60 AND 65F FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SET UP FOR TODAY IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE INTERESTING WITH
TIME...WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FIRST THINGS FIRST HOWEVER...GULF COAST UPPER
CUTOFF WILL DIRECT A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA DURING THE DAY TODAY...WHILE
A SLOW MOVING SFC FRONT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKES...REACHING NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES...BUT A GREATLY INCREASING PROBABILITY OF
SHRA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ISOLATED TSTORMS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE DESTABLIZE
THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH REACHES +15C AT 850 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MY SOUTH. CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
COMING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /WHICH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY/.
TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS PACKAGE.
INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. THIS BASED LARGELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS THIS
AFT...WHICH SHOW CLOUD ELEMENTS OVER EASTERN NC WORKING NW.
SITUATION LOOKS LIKE A PRE EVENT. SOME MEMBERS OVER 6 INCHES
OF RAIN...BUT THAT LOOKS A LITTLE HIGH. 1 TO 3 WITH SOME
HIGHER AMTS LOOKS BETTER. CAN HANDLE THIS AMT OK...UNLESS
ALL IN A SHORT TIME INTERVAL. LATER SHIFTS CAN ISSUE WATCHES
IF NEEDED.
DID UP POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED AM...AND PUT CHC OF THUNDER
IN FCST.
DID NOT DO MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES.
LATER WED INTO EARLY FRIDAY...LEAST CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
STILL LOOKING WET FOR SAT...BUT STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODELS.
LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WOULD LIFT OUT FAST ENOUGH TO
HAVE PART OF SUNDAY SEEING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.
WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR MONDAY.
MORE DETAIL BELOW.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SIG RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PA
TUES NIGHT/WED...AS SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWATS NR 3SD ABV NORMAL...COMBINED WITH
MDL INSTABILITY AND SLOW MOVING FRONT SUPPORT THE IDEA OF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD 1+ INCH AMTS...WITH MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS. GIVEN
THE RECENT DRYNESS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING NOT A CONCERN. HOWEVER...WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO.
CONFIDENCE IN LINGERING WET WX APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
CENTRAL PA LATE THIS WEEK...AS ALL MDLS HAVE CONVERGED ON IDEA OF
A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW CRAWLING
UP THE MID ATL COAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE THU-SAT TIME
FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE...NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
TEMPS BLW CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SETTLIGN IN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY
FROM THE S/SE.
LIMITED IF ANY IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS ON TUE AS AREA OF RAIN
EXPANDS OVER CENTRAL PA. MVFR/IFR CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
AS RAIN ARRIVES EARY IN THE DAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR IN
THE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIP ARRIVES LATER AND REMAINS
MAINLY LIGHT UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSS...BUT PROB MUCH TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY
WED...WITH PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF
GENERALLY 5-10MPH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS AND RAIN LIKELY...DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST.
TUE NIGHT...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS IN RAIN.
WED...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS IN RAIN EARLY. TAPERING TO SCT SHOWERS
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THU...MAINLY VFR/MFVR AM FOG AND ISOLD SHOWERS.
FRI-SAT...CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
216 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE
TODAY...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. AN EXTENSIVE
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FOCUS ON THE
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL
LOW AFFECTS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
145 AM UPDATE...
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
WITH JUST SOME BRIEF AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...AHEAD OF
INCREASING PWATS AND THE NOSE OF A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE EARLY MORNING...MIN TEMPS 15-20 DEG
F ABOVE NORMAL LOWS...IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CONCERNING HEAVY RAIN THREAT LATER TODAY THROUGH WED...THERE IS
QUITE GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH A SLIGHTLY LESSER AGREEMENT OF THE
PRECISE LOCATION. A LARGE QPF SPREAD OF GREATER THAN A FACTOR OF 2
EXISTS BETWEEN THE VERY WET NAM...AND THE GFS/GEFS/SREF/EC. GFS IS
THE FURTHEST SE WITH THE QPF AXIS/FROM THE LAURELS TO NRN
POCONOS...WHILE THE EC HAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE NW AND
NCENT MTNS...75NM OR SO FURTHER NW.
AREA RIVERS AND STREAM BASIN CAN HANDLE QUITE A LOT OF RAIN
/3.5-4.5 INCHES OVER A 3-12 HOUR PERIOD/...WHICH IS WHERE THE BULK
OF MODEL STORM TOTAL QPF LIES. HOWEVER...THE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF
8-11 INCHES PAINTED BY THE NAM FROM NEAR KJST AND KIDI...NORTHEAST
TO KDUJ AND LELM WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY CAUSE SIGNIFCANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS. FEEL THAT THE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF THE EXCESSIVE QPF IS
OVERDONE ON THE NAM. HOWEVER...THE SYNPOTIC SETUP WITH PWAT
ANOMALIES OF AROUND 3 SIGMA...AND WELL-DEFINED/SLOW MOVING JET
ENTRANCE ABOVE THE SFC CFRONT...WILL COMBINE WITH GENERALLY LOW
CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG TO BRING SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING BANDS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED TSRA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES OVER A 12
HOUR PERIOD. WPC QPF FORECAST FOR THROUGH 48 HOURS IS 2.5 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PENN AND THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.
1045 PM UPDATE... INTERESTING TO WATCH THE NEW 00Z NAM COME
IN...BUT MOSTLY FOR WHAT IT SAYS FOR TUES/NIGHT. IN THE NEAR-
TERM...NO CHANGES FORSEEN AS THE SPRINKLES ARE WELL- HANDLED AND
REAL ORGANIZATION TO THE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.
745 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WANING ALREADY AND HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND.
THE SPRINKLES OUT THERE NOW MAY MAKE THE GROUND WET...BUT THEY ARE
ALSO MOVING ALONG QUICKLY. THEREFORE A 20 POP IS ALL THAT IS
NECESSARY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY 09Z...SOME
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SLIDE INTO THE NWRN COS.
PREV...
PLUME OF 1.5" PW POOLED AHEAD OF SHEARING 5H TROF WITHIN 850 MB
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS MAINTAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL WANE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WEAK FORCING IN VERY MOIST AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
ANY APPRECIABLE QPF TONIGHT...DESPITE THE COPIOUS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER AND SURGING DWPT WILL TRANSLATE TO A MILD
NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH MINS BTWN 60 AND 65F FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SET UP FOR TODAY IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE INTERESTING WITH
TIME...WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FIRST THINGS FIRST HOWEVER...GULF COAST UPPER
CUTOFF WILL DIRECT A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA DURING THE DAY TODAY...WHILE
A SLOW MOVING SFC FRONT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKES...REACHING NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES...BUT A GREATLY INCREASING PROBABILITY OF
SHRA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ISOLATED TSTORMS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE DESTABLIZE
THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH REACHES +15C AT 850 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MY SOUTH. CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
COMING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /WHICH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY/.
TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS PACKAGE.
INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. THIS BASED LARGELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS THIS
AFT...WHICH SHOW CLOUD ELEMENTS OVER EASTERN NC WORKING NW.
SITUATION LOOKS LIKE A PRE EVENT. SOME MEMBERS OVER 6 INCHES
OF RAIN...BUT THAT LOOKS A LITTLE HIGH. 1 TO 3 WITH SOME
HIGHER AMTS LOOKS BETTER. CAN HANDLE THIS AMT OK...UNLESS
ALL IN A SHORT TIME INTERVAL. LATER SHIFTS CAN ISSUE WATCHES
IF NEEDED.
DID UP POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED AM...AND PUT CHC OF THUNDER
IN FCST.
DID NOT DO MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES.
LATER WED INTO EARLY FRIDAY...LEAST CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
STILL LOOKING WET FOR SAT...BUT STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODELS.
LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WOULD LIFT OUT FAST ENOUGH TO
HAVE PART OF SUNDAY SEEING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.
WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR MONDAY.
MORE DETAIL BELOW.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SIG RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PA
TUES NIGHT/WED...AS SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWATS NR 3SD ABV NORMAL...COMBINED WITH
MDL INSTABILITY AND SLOW MOVING FRONT SUPPORT THE IDEA OF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD 1+ INCH AMTS...WITH MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS. GIVEN
THE RECENT DRYNESS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING NOT A CONCERN. HOWEVER...WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO.
CONFIDENCE IN LINGERING WET WX APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
CENTRAL PA LATE THIS WEEK...AS ALL MDLS HAVE CONVERGED ON IDEA OF
A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW CRAWLING
UP THE MID ATL COAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE THU-SAT TIME
FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE...NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
TEMPS BLW CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE RELATIVELY QUIET NOW...QUIET BEFORE THE STORM.
MODELS AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW CEILINGS WILL EXPAND
OVERNIGHT BUT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR SHOULD DEVELOP.
BY SUNRISE THERE WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR.
MODELS STILL SHOW RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY FROM NW TO
SE. TIMED THE RAIN BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SREF. THIS
SHOWS RAPID INCREASE CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR IN NORTHWEST
AREAS NEAR KBFD BY 10-12Z. RAIN SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
TRIED TO SHOW TIMING OF MORE ORGANIZED RAIN THROUGH JST-AOO-UNV-
IPT AND MDT/LNS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD GET A GOOD RAINFALL BEST RAIN AND
LOWERED CIGS/VIS AT THIS TIME COULD BE OVER CENTRAL PA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DID NOT PUT THUNDER IN TAFS BUT
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IS AN ISSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF
GENERALLY 5-10MPH IN THE SHALLOW COOL MOIST AIR. THE WARM AIR
LIFTING OVER THIS TUESDAY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF OUR RAIN.
THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. MVFR
AND IFR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLE LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG AND
MORE INTENSE RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS AND RAIN LIKELY...MOVING WEST TO EAST.
TUE NIGHT...LOW CIGS/RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY.
WED...LOW CIGS EARLY. RAIN TO SCT SHOWERS IN AFTERNOON.
THU...MAINLY VFR/MFVR AM FOG AND ISOLD SHOWERS.
FRI-SAT...CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1038 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
STRATUS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
SHOULD BLANKET THE AREA TO SOME DEGREE. WILL RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST OF THE MN/SD/IA STATE LINE UPWARDS OF 5
OR MORE DEGREES. ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES DRIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...A LARGE DOME OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EASTERN CANADA.
STILL SEEING A DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY STREAMING NORTH
NORTHEAST IN CENTRAL SD IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE. A
FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN THIS
AREA...BUT IS EXPECTED TO FIZZLE OUT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE WAVE DIMINISHES.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED UNDER MOST CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...THEREFORE FOLLOWED THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS...IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR EAST
TO NEAR 50 FAR WEST. THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MAINLY FOCUSED IN AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH IN THIS
AREA...HOWEVER 15 MPH OR LESS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE SIMILAR TO TODAY OR A DEGREE OR TWO
COLDER AROUND THE MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
PATTERN IS CONTINUING TO SLOW WITH REX BLOCK DEVELOPING OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH PATTERN SLOWING...HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD BE CLOSER TO SATURDAY MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINING TO THE WEST.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES APPEAR TO PASS TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE CONFINED POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE US...AND HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED WINDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK PATTERN
SHIFTS FROM ONE BLOCKING PATTERN TO ANOTHER AS AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMS
ACROSS THE CONUS. HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS THE ANCHORING LOW ON THE
EAST COAST AND A FAIRLY STRONG CUT OFF LOW IS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS RESULTING IN DRY AND TEMPERATE EARLY FALL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ONCE AGAIN ENTER THE
FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE OMEGA BLOCK BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST
AND THE ANCHORING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST BEGINS TO APPROACH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
5K TO 7K FT AGL STRATUS DECK CAUGHT IN A 850MB CONVERGENT AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NIGHT. NAM/GFS
DOING A POOR JOB WITH THIS MOISTURE...AND ONLY MODELS THAT SEEMS
TO HAVE A CLUE ARE THE HRRR AND RAP.
WILL HOLD BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS...BEFORE
DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. CIRRUS
SHOULD SPILL INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUX
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1009 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. CURRENTLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...BUT THE REST OF THE
AREA REMAINS QUIET IN REGARDS TO THUNDER. KEPT IN MENTION OF
THUNDER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. DROPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
THE SOUTHWEST AS THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH AND EAST
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT LEAST 60 POPS SINCE SOME SHORT TERM
MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP A BIT MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.
BNA/CKV/CSV...A MESSY DAY IS SHAPING UP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WITH A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ALOFT AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST HRRR DOESN`T SHOW
PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS, BUT MOST
PLACES WILL STILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY, HENCE
THE HIGH POP`S. SO LOOK FOR PERIODS OF RAIN, FOG, AND LOW CIGS
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT IFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY MID-EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG TONIGHT, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF MOST OF THE FOG, SO WILL JUST GO WITH LOW CIGS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BARNWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
624 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.
BNA/CKV/CSV...A MESSY DAY IS SHAPING UP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WITH A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ALOFT AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST HRRR DOESN`T SHOW
PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS, BUT MOST
PLACES WILL STILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY, HENCE
THE HIGH POP`S. SO LOOK FOR PERIODS OF RAIN, FOG, AND LOW CIGS
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT IFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY MID-EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG TONIGHT, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF MOST OF THE FOG, SO WILL JUST GO WITH LOW CIGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...IT WAS CLOUDY AND MILD ACROSS THE MID STATE EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOWER 70S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, ALONG
WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR CKV. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTH. &&
SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A VERY MOIST FLOW OF AIR UP
ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MORE THAN A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE DAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PHASES IN WITH MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH
TONIGHT AND STARTS TO PULL EASTWARD, BRINGING A SURFACE DEW POINT
FRONT TO NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z/WED. EXPECT FRONT
TO SAG ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW, WHERE TEMPS WILL PROBABLY ONLY RISE 3 TO 5
DEGS, AND HIGHS TOP OUT NEAR 70. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, EXPECT A
SLIGHTLY GREATER TEMP RISE, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
QPF TOTALS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND AN
INCH OVER EASTERN COUNTIES, TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN AREAS NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. SO, BELIEVE ALL AREAS WILL GET A DECENT
SOAKING. QPF AMOUNTS DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY, WITH AMOUNTS FORECAST
TO BE MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH.
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY,
WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY NOON,
AND OVER EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN AREAS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU NOT EVEN
MAKING IT OUT THE 60S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEST.
LONG TERM...EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK, KEEPING AT LEAST BKN CIGS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH AT LEAST
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AT WEEK`S END, WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. FRESH NORTH WINDS WILL
MAKE IT SEEM EVEN CHILLIER. LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR NEXT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 76 68 72 60 / 100 50 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 76 64 69 56 / 80 40 20 10
CROSSVILLE 73 65 71 58 / 100 60 60 30
COLUMBIA 78 68 74 59 / 90 50 40 10
LAWRENCEBURG 77 68 75 59 / 90 50 40 10
WAVERLY 78 65 69 58 / 80 40 30 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
256 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATEST FORECAST UPDATE REFLECTS CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN FROM STOKES
COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH PATRICK COUNTY...ACROSS
FLOYD AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE PATRICK COUNTY MEETS FLOYD COUNTY...AS WELL AS
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AS OF 930...ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH 2 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR
RAINFALL RATES...IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS PATRICK COUNTY. AN
ADDITIONAL TWO TO THREE INCHES IS LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN
THIS AREA THROUGH NOON.
LATEST RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CARRIES ABNORMALLY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED CLOSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MONTGOMERY...FLOYD AND PATRICK COUNTIES. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE
RAPIDLY DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH MANY OF THE SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS FROM STOKES COUNTY NC THROUGH MONTGOMERY COUNTY VA
SWELLING OUT OF THEIR BANKS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 06Z/2AM TONIGHT.
THE 00Z GFS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE WERE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS LOW THAN THE NAM. ALL MODEL SHOWED INCREASING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND UPSLOPE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AIDE IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH THE BETTER JET
DYNAMICS REMAINED ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND THE IMPACTS FROM THIS RAIN FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STARTING OUT VERY MILD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO
AROUND 70. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL RANGE FROM 1.6 TO 2.2 TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD BACK RISE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 0315 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW. DESPITE
THE PASSING OF THE FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS UNITED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO-TENN
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS TROUGH COULD
BECOME A CLOSED LOW ON THURSDAY. IF THIS CLOSED LOW DOES TAKE
SHAPE...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. TO PUT A GOOD SPIN ON A DREARY FORECAST...THE BULK OF THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
MAY BE A LITTLE ROUGH AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND
MODERATE DYNAMICS PRODUCE A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS. WITH AN ALREADY
SATURATED PLAYING FIELD...MODERATE RAIN RATES AND A RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING LINE OF STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SOME THUNDER MAY BE HEARD WHILE THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW.
MORNING RAIN AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
COOL NORTHERLY AIR AND RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE
5F-10F BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH PAIRED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PAIRING WILL MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS AT ROUGHLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. ONCE THIS
TAKES PLACE...ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND NOTABLY COOLER AIR ADVANCING INTO AT LEAST THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AREAWIDE AS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SHOWERS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ADVANCES
NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST REGION. RAINFALL WILL CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO BOUNCE UP AND DOWN...POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 1SM AT
TIMES. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
BUT WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH 30/00Z...BEFORE FALLING BACK TO IFR LEVELS FOR THE NIGHT.
RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE
PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA...RESULTING IN MORE OF A LIGHT SHOWERY
NATURE. REGARDLESS...EXPECT IFR STRATUS AND MVFR FOG WILL FILL
BACK IN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
PERSIST HOWEVER...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT WILL CAUSE
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MODELS SUGGEST POOR FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS A LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRACKING FROM AROUND RALEIGH TO
BLACKSBURG SINCE AROUND 8PM. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN LESS THAN THREE HOURS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL. RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS RAIN
WAS FALLING OVER COUNTIES THAT ALREADY HAD AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10
INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MODELS WERE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
UPSLOPE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
EXPECTED LOCATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE
ONGOING FEED OF MOISTURE AND TRAINING SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A MAJORITY OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
RUNOFF...INITIALLY IMPACTING SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH RAPID
RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. LATER TODAY AND INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL RESPOND TO THE RAINFALL. FLOODING ON THE
RIVERS IS NOT CERTAIN BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ012>020-
022>024-032>035-043>045-058.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/NF
HYDROLOGY...NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
937 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATEST FORECAST UPDATE REFLECTS CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN FROM STOKES
COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH PATRICK COUNTY...ACROSS
FLOYD AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE PATRICK COUNTY MEETS FLOYD COUNTY...AS WELL AS
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AS OF 930...ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH 2 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR
RAINFALL RATES...IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS PATRICK COUNTY. AN
ADDITIONAL TWO TO THREE INCHES IS LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN
THIS AREA THROUGH NOON.
LATEST RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CARRIES ABNORMALLY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED CLOSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MONTGOMERY...FLOYD AND PATRICK COUNTIES. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE
RAPIDLY DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH MANY OF THE SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS FROM STOKES COUNTY NC THROUGH MONTGOMERY COUNTY VA
SWELLING OUT OF THEIR BANKS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 06Z/2AM TONIGHT.
THE 00Z GFS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE WERE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS LOW THAN THE NAM. ALL MODEL SHOWED INCREASING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND UPSLOPE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AIDE IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH THE BETTER JET
DYNAMICS REMAINED ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND THE IMPACTS FROM THIS RAIN FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STARTING OUT VERY MILD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO
AROUND 70. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL RANGE FROM 1.6 TO 2.2 TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD BACK RISE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 0315 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW. DESPITE
THE PASSING OF THE FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS UNITED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO-TENN
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS TROUGH COULD
BECOME A CLOSED LOW ON THURSDAY. IF THIS CLOSED LOW DOES TAKE
SHAPE...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. TO PUT A GOOD SPIN ON A DREARY FORECAST...THE BULK OF THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
MAY BE A LITTLE ROUGH AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND
MODERATE DYNAMICS PRODUCE A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS. WITH AN ALREADY
SATURATED PLAYING FIELD...MODERATE RAIN RATES AND A RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING LINE OF STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SOME THUNDER MAY BE HEARD WHILE THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW.
MORNING RAIN AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
COOL NORTHERLY AIR AND RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE
5F-10F BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH PAIRED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PAIRING WILL MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS AT ROUGHLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. ONCE THIS
TAKES PLACE...ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND NOTABLY COOLER AIR ADVANCING INTO AT LEAST THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM
BOTH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH AT
LEAST 15Z/11AM THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR VALUES THROUGH 00Z/8PM.
IFR STRATUS AND MVFR FOG WILL FILL BACK IN AFTER 00Z/8PM TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MODELS SUGGEST POOR FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS A LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRACKING FROM AROUND RALEIGH TO
BLACKSBURG SINCE AROUND 8PM. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN LESS THAN THREE HOURS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL. RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS RAIN
WAS FALLING OVER COUNTIES THAT ALREADY HAD AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10
INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MODELS WERE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
UPSLOPE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
EXPECTED LOCATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE
ONGOING FEED OF MOISTURE AND TRAINING SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A MAJORITY OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
RUNOFF...INITIALLY IMPACTING SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH RAPID
RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. LATER TODAY AND INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL RESPOND TO THE RAINFALL. FLOODING ON THE
RIVERS IS NOT CERTAIN BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ012>020-
022>024-032>035-043>045-058.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
HYDROLOGY...NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
748 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 06Z/2AM TONIGHT.
THE 00Z GFS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE WERE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS LOW THAN THE NAM. ALL MODEL SHOWED INCREASING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND UPSLOPE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AIDE IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH THE BETTER JET
DYNAMICS REMAINED ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND THE IMPACTS FROM THIS RAIN FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STARTING OUT VERY MILD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO
AROUND 70. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL RANGE FROM 1.6 TO 2.2 TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD BACK RISE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 0315 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW. DESPITE
THE PASSING OF THE FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS UNITED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO-TENN
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS TROUGH COULD
BECOME A CLOSED LOW ON THURSDAY. IF THIS CLOSED LOW DOES TAKE
SHAPE...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. TO PUT A GOOD SPIN ON A DREARY FORECAST...THE BULK OF THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
MAY BE A LITTLE ROUGH AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND
MODERATE DYNAMICS PRODUCE A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS. WITH AN ALREADY
SATURATED PLAYING FIELD...MODERATE RAIN RATES AND A RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING LINE OF STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SOME THUNDER MAY BE HEARD WHILE THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW.
MORNING RAIN AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
COOL NORTHERLY AIR AND RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE
5F-10F BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH PAIRED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PAIRING WILL MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS AT ROUGHLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. ONCE THIS
TAKES PLACE...ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND NOTABLY COOLER AIR ADVANCING INTO AT LEAST THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM
BOTH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH AT
LEAST 15Z/11AM THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR VALUES THROUGH 00Z/8PM.
IFR STRATUS AND MVFR FOG WILL FILL BACK IN AFTER 00Z/8PM TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MODELS SUGGEST POOR FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS A LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRACKING FROM AROUND RALEIGH TO
BLACKSBURG SINCE AROUND 8PM. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN LESS THAN THREE HOURS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL. RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS RAIN
WAS FALLING OVER COUNTIES THAT ALREADY HAD AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10
INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MODELS WERE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
UPSLOPE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
EXPECTED LOCATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE
ONGOING FEED OF MOISTURE AND TRAINING SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A MAJORITY OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
RUNOFF...INITIALLY IMPACTING SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH RAPID
RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. LATER TODAY AND INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL RESPOND TO THE RAINFALL. FLOODING ON THE
RIVERS IS NOT CERTAIN BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ012>020-
022>024-032>035-043>045-058.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
HYDROLOGY...NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
516 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 06Z/2AM TONIGHT.
THE 00Z GFS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE WERE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS LOW THAN THE NAM. ALL MODEL SHOWED INCREASING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND UPSLOPE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AIDE IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH THE BETTER JET
DYNAMICS REMAINED ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND THE IMPACTS FROM THIS RAIN FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STARTING OUT VERY MILD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO
AROUND 70. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL RANGE FROM 1.6 TO 2.2 TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD BACK RISE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 0315 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW. DESPITE
THE PASSING OF THE FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS UNITED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO-TENN
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS TROUGH COULD
BECOME A CLOSED LOW ON THURSDAY. IF THIS CLOSED LOW DOES TAKE
SHAPE...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. TO PUT A GOOD SPIN ON A DREARY FORECAST...THE BULK OF THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
MAY BE A LITTLE ROUGH AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND
MODERATE DYNAMICS PRODUCE A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS. WITH AN ALREADY
SATURATED PLAYING FIELD...MODERATE RAIN RATES AND A RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING LINE OF STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SOME THUNDER MAY BE HEARD WHILE THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW.
MORNING RAIN AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
COOL NORTHERLY AIR AND RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE
5F-10F BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH PAIRED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PAIRING WILL MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS AT ROUGHLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. ONCE THIS
TAKES PLACE...ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND NOTABLY COOLER AIR ADVANCING INTO AT LEAST THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT TUESDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM
BOTH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH AT
LEAST 15Z/11AM THIS MORNING. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
VALUES THROUGH 00Z/8PM.
IFR STRATUS AND MVFR FOG WILL FILL BACK IN AFTER 00Z/8PM TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MODELS SUGGEST POOR FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS A LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRACKING FROM AROUND RALEIGH TO
BLACKSBURG SINCE AROUND 8PM. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN LESS THAN THREE HOURS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL. RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS RAIN
WAS FALLING OVER COUNTIES THAT ALREADY HAD AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10
INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MODELS WERE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
UPSLOPE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
EXPECTED LOCATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE
ONGOING FEED OF MOISTURE AND TRAINING SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A MAJORITY OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
RUNOFF...INITIALLY IMPACTING SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH RAPID
RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. LATER TODAY AND INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL RESPOND TO THE RAINFALL. FLOODING ON THE
RIVERS IS NOT CERTAIN BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ012>020-
022>024-032>035-043>045-058.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
HYDROLOGY...NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1006 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO HOLD ON THIS MORNING...THOUGH RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASING THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. LATEST
HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO
FORECAST HIGHS...WHICH ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST
AREA BY AROUND 19Z. CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LINGERING MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE BASE OF A 250 MB UPPER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THEN TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
A WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS RATHER STRONG
IN A NARROW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LOOK TO REACH NEARLY 1.6 INCHES...SO SOME MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
700 MB RH VALUES DRY FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND ARE VERY DRY BY
TONIGHT. 850 MB RH IS DRY BY NOON BUT 925 MB RH STAYS BETWEEN 60 AND
80 PCT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING. THEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
ALONG WITH QUIET BUT COOLER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE COOLER THAN
INLAND DURING THE DAY AND WARMER AT NIGHT. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL
REMAIN STEADY AROUND THE 3-5C RANGE ...A STARK CONTRAST TO TEMPS OF
14C THAT WERE OVERHEAD YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND. EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST
ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR FROST IN THE MKX AREA... EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY IN THE MARQUETTE/ GREEN LAKE COUNTY AREA.
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING EACH AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS AND GUSTS AND ALSO LOW DEWPOINTS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OVER WISCONSIN DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND A
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS THAT
UPPER LOWS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND EAST COAST AREAS WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY AND SOME OF MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME AND SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST WI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL.
CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO
MOVE A SYSTEM STRAIGHT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY AND THE GFS
HANGS ONTO THE DRY PATTERN THROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR RAPIDLY SPREADING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER NORTHEAST
WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY CAUSE MVFR CIGS TO LINGER LONGER.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT FOR
BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WAVES WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
350 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRY TO SHIFT INTO THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL CAP WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MAKING IT VERY FAR EAST. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OR AT LEAST
ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIE OFF AROUND INTERSTATE 25.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME ELEVATED AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
SLIDES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. HRRR MODEL...WHICH HAS HANDLED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
DOES DEVELOP ELEVATED CONVECTION. BASED ON THE HRRR THE ACTIVITY
OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WILL DIE OFF AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING/NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE ANOTHER BATCH OF
ACTIVITY WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BY MID EVENING. FORECAST POPS GENERALLY REPRESENT THE
HRRR SOLUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ARE VERY
UNLIKELY BUT A FEW WINDS GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH AND PEA SIZED
HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
THIS EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT IN HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE STRATUS
AND FOG WILL MAKE IT BUT IT COULD PARALLEL THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR A
WHILE TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BECOME WEST ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE WESTERN FLANKS OF
FOG AND STRATUS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF WEAK THETAE
ADVECTION NEAR THE TOP OF A SHALLOW SATURATED INVERSION. MOST OF
THE FOG/LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE WILL ERODE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW BUT PLACES LIKE ALLIANCE AND
SIDNEY NEBRASKA MAY NOT SEE THE SUN TOMORROW AS A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MAY HOLD THE STRATUS IN PLACE.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMAL WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES IN AND NEAR THE SNOWY RANGE AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG INTO THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
THE CAP WILL HOLD AND IF THERE WILL BE ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN
PLACE. NOT CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE STORMS INTO THE PLAINS BUT IT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.
MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015
RAIN AND SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF MOVES EAST AND PIVOTS
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW STILL POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER MTNS BUT NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO ANY
ACCUMULATIONS INTO SAT MORNING SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. SOME
LULL IN THE PCPN ON SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT IMPULSE IN THE FLOW
ROTATES ACROSS SAT NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN. IN THE
MEANTIME A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW DRIFT NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SHORT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA SUNDAY DRYING
THINGS OUT AND ALLOWING FOR MILDER TEMPS AFTER A COOL DAY
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS SPREADING PCPN BACK OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AGAIN SNOWS LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MTN
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD...CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015
VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE WY TERMINALS THOUGH KCYS MAY HOLD AN MVFR
CIG BRIEFLY. OVER THE PANHANDLE WDSPRD MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY
TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS AND TSTRMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH. THAT WILL BE THE ONLY AREA WITH ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH SNOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ABOVE
9000 FEET BUT COULD SEE SOME SNOW AS LOW AS 8000 FEET.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1108 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
GENERATED A QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION BASED ON LATEST RADAR COMBINED WITH RUC QPF TRENDS.
CONVERSELY...INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WHICH WAS FAR MORE EXTENSIVE THAN REPRESENTED IN GRIDDED
DATA FIELDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
ENERGY AND A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE HAS CONTINUED TO STREAM
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA TODAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THEN NORTH...AND SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
THESE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DAY
HEATS UP. THEN AN EMBEDDED WAVE WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING...FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING.
ON THURSDAY A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SHIFT
INLAND NUDGING THE UPPER RIDGE TO EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
AS A RESULT...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY. HOWEVER GUSTS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME
THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET...BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON THU...BUT
THIS WILL BE OUR LAST DAY OF LATE SUMMER-LIKE READINGS.
THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE
MODELS INDICATE A DRY SLOT WILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE
NIGHT...SOME SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TOWARDS MORNING. WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
WHILE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR NORTHWEST CORNER BY AROUND
MID-MORNING...AND INTO THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL CWA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW WITH THE LOW
CENTER OVER THE WY/UT/CO TRIPLE POINT AT 03Z PER THE 12Z NAM. THIS
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF...AND THE CENTRAL CO
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE BEST ACTIVITY FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT
SAID...REINFORCING ENERGY WILL KEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL WY THROUGH SAT FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...SO
ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANY SNOW.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE LOADED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY EARLY SAT. THE MID TERM MODELS DISAGREE ON
THE PATH THIS STRONG CUT OFF LOW WILL TAKE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IN ANY CASE TROUGHINESS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD KEEPING POSSIBLE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY FALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2015
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE TOP OF A RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF BOOKCLIFFS
TONIGHT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTS AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES.
AFTER 18Z ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AT TAF SITE.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
A large area of high pressure to our north has brought a rather
chilly start to the new month as temperatures have dipped into the
lower 40s over our northern counties as of 200 am. Further
southeast, some mid and high level clouds have kept temperatures
in the middle 50s. The main concern in the short term will be the
extent of cloud cover and their affect on afternoon temps along
with some gusty winds again this afternoon.
An upper level low situated over extreme southern IL this morning
will drift southeast with additional energy forecast to move into
the base of the trof later today helping to intensify the upper
low. The combination of the large cool Canadian high to our north
and the deepening upper level system to our southeast will help
to produce a rather tight pressure gradient over the Midwest which
will result in some gusty winds again today out of the northeast.
In addition, short term models suggest some increase in clouds this
morning from the east with forecast soundings showing a deeper layer
of moisture than what we saw yesterday, this time from about 2500 to
3500 feet. Both the RAP-13 and HRRR models showing the band of
clouds tracking west from Indiana later this morning, affecting
mainly the eastern half of the forecast area. Think the models may
be overdoing the depth of moisture, especially as it tracks west
into the surface ridge axis so not going to go as pessimistic as
the short term models suggest, but we will see more clouds mix in
with the sun than what we had yesterday.
Forecast soundings also suggest prevailing northeast winds of 12 to
17 kts with gusts around 25 kts at times later this morning thru
most of the afternoon. Most models indicate 850 temps a bit lower
than what we saw yesterday which should yield afternoon temperatures
mostly in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
00Z forecast models continue to deepen upper level trof over the
lower TN/OH river valleys southward into a cutoff low over AL and FL
panhandle Thu night into Friday. This trough will influence the
track of major hurricane Joaquin with winds up to 120 mph and near
the eastern Bahamas. HPC official track of hurricane is on a more
northerly track to near the mid Atlantic coast by Sunday night into
Monday. The 00Z ECMWF model continues to have a more eastern track
of hurricane out to sea this weekend. The 00Z GFS is further west
track but has trended a bit further east toward NJ/NYC area by
Monday. GEM model brings hurricane into NC Sat night. So models
still differ greatly on track of hurricane and still awaiting
evolution of deepening upper level trof/cutoff low into the
southeast states. Most models show just light patches of qpf over
eastern IL Fri into Sunday morning though NAM is wetter over IL and
an outlier and not followed. Did not make too many adjustments to
forecast through this weekend, though did add more cloud cover and a
bit cooler highs in 60s and elevated lows/dewpoints slightly from
Friday night through Sunday night. Breezy northeast winds to
continue next few days with gusts in the 20-30 mph range during
daytime period.
Weak high pressure ridge builds into IL Monday providing more
sunshine and lighter winds and a bit milder highs in the lower 70s.
Temps continue to moderate into low to mid 70s Tue and mid to upper
70s Wed with increasing southerly flow on back side of high pressure
ridge moving into the mid Atlantic states. Chances of rain showers
during middle of next week, starting over IL river valley Tue night
and into central IL Wed and southeast IL Wed night/Thu as a cold
front trackes into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
High pressure centered just NW of Illinois will provide VFR
conditions and nearly cloud free skies the next 24 hours. The
pressure difference between the surface high and an elongated
area of low pressure along the East Coast will keep northeast
winds in the 10-14kt range the rest of the night. Sustained winds
are now looking to climb into the 15-20kt range by 15z and
continue through the day. Wind gusts will be frequently be near
23-25kt. Wind gusts will diminish by 03z, but sustained winds
will remain 13-15kt through Thursday evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
344 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
...Updated Long Term Section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Water vapor loop and RAP analysis overnight showed an amplifying
ridge axis in the mid-upper troposphere across the Desert Southwest
and the Southern Rockies. A plume of mid and high level moisture was
rounding the northern periphery of the ridge across the
Intermountain West into the adjacent High Plains. A surface ridge
axis remained a fixture across the Eastern Plains into the Upper
Midwest region with influence continuing across our portion of the
world in southwest Kansas. Light easterly upslope flow will continue
today, along with the cool and fairly moist airmass. We will likely
see a swath of stratus clouds redevelop in the 09-12z time frame
early this morning with stratus continuing through the day across
portions of southwest KS...much like yesterday. We will carry some
20-30 POPs across mainly south-central KS as short term models
indicate some convective QPF in a weak zone of mid level
deformation. Nothing of significance is expected, however. We
lowered the forecast highs into the lower-mid 60s across a good
chunk of the area, using the NAM12, HiRes Nested 4km NAM, and WRF-
ARW blended solution. The extreme southwest should touch the warm
sector with the stratus cover just to their northeast. Highs in the
mid to upper 70s are likely from Elkhart to Johnson to Liberal.
.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Cool and moist weather will continue to be the theme through the
weekend. The best chance for widespread precipitation still appears
to be Friday Night into Saturday as a rather robust shortwave trough
ejects northeast across Colorado. this will provide some warm
frontogenesis in the 800-700mb layer across western Kansas with all
three major global spectral model solutions (GFS, ECMWF, GEM) all
showing a decent QPF signal with event total QPF amounts in the two
to four-tenths range. The rain on Saturday will certainly keep
temperatures quite cool, and daytime highs were lowered down into
the mid 50s for most of the forecast area.
This initial system will exist the region late Saturday, but we will
remain in a southwest flow pattern with the remnant airmass holding
in place (although a bit modified by Sunday with 850mb temperatures
back into the 12-15C territory). Another even more robust upper low
is now shown by the "Big 3" global models entering the West early
next week. Southerly flow will strengthen ahead of this larger scale
storm system across western Kansas, allowing us to finally erode
this cool airmass away. By Tuesday, though, the system is shown by
the "Big 3" consensus to show signs of weakening and become
positively tilted -- not favorable for a decent precipitation event.
That being said, by mid next week, the ECMWF shows another jet
streak coming in off the Pacific helping re-energize the upper low
as it approaches the High Plains, leading to a nice precipitation
event. At +168hr though, this solution must be taken with a grain
of salt. Nevertheless, an active southern branch of the polar jet
appears to be setting up across our latitude, so there`s at
least some hope for additional precipitation next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Ceilings will continue to be a challenge at all three terminals
(GCK, DDC, HYS). The greatest confidence in IFR/LIFR stratus and fog
redevelopment is at GCK and DDC where a 4 or 5 hour window of
restricted ceiling/visibility can be expected. The ceiling will
gradually rise through MVFR later on in the morning and likely into
the VFR range by mid to late afternoon. GCK may see the IFR or MVFR
hanging on the longest this morning through afternoon. HYS may see
VFR by mid to late morning as they should be on the edge of the
stratus field.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 51 62 46 / 10 20 40 60
GCK 66 51 59 45 / 10 30 40 50
EHA 80 53 59 48 / 10 10 40 40
LBL 71 53 58 47 / 10 20 40 60
HYS 65 50 65 46 / 20 10 40 50
P28 65 51 66 49 / 30 10 30 50
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1247 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
...Updated Short Term and Aviation Sections...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Water vapor loop and RAP analysis overnight showed an amplifying
ridge axis in the mid-upper troposphere across the Desert Southwest
and the Southern Rockies. A plume of mid and high level moisture was
rounding the northern periphery of the ridge across the
Intermountain West into the adjacent High Plains. A surface ridge
axis remained a fixture across the Eastern Plains into the Upper
Midwest region with influence continuing across our portion of the
world in southwest Kansas. Light easterly upslope flow will continue
today, along with the cool and fairly moist airmass. We will likely
see a swath of stratus clouds redevelop in the 09-12z time frame
early this morning with stratus continuing through the day across
portions of southwest KS...much like yesterday. We will carry some
20-30 POPs across mainly south-central KS as short term models
indicate some convective QPF in a weak zone of mid level
deformation. Nothing of significance is expected, however. We
lowered the forecast highs into the lower-mid 60s across a good
chunk of the area, using the NAM12, HiRes Nested 4km NAM, and WRF-
ARW blended solution. The extreme southwest should touch the warm
sector with the stratus cover just to their northeast. Highs in the
mid to upper 70s are likely from Elkhart to Johnson to Liberal.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
Drier conditions are expected during the day Friday as medium range
models indicate upper level ridging moving east across the Western
High Plains. Chances for precip return going into the early part of
the weekend as an upper level trough is projected to push east
across the Great Basin into the Central and Southern Rockies.
Meanwhile, a prevailing southeasterly upslope flow will provide some
lift as a series of H5 vort maxima begin to eject out of the Rockies
into the high plains of western Kansas. Although the strength of the
flow aloft is expected to remain modest at best, showers with a few
rumbles of thunder may be possible Friday night into Saturday.
Conditions are expected to dry out a bit Sunday as the GFS/ECMWF
show upper level ridging redeveloping across the Central and Western
High Plains.
Below normal temperatures are expected Friday as lingering precip
and increased cloud cover limit insolation during much of the day.
Look for highs only up into the 60s(F) Friday afternoon with a
warming trend beginning by early next week as upper level ridging
builds across the Central Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Ceilings will continue to be a challenge at all three terminals
(GCK, DDC, HYS). The greatest confidence in IFR/LIFR stratus and fog
redevelopment is at GCK and DDC where a 4 or 5 hour window of
restricted ceiling/visibility can be expected. The ceiling will
gradually rise through MVFR later on in the morning and likely into
the VFR range by mid to late afternoon. GCK may see the IFR or MVFR
hanging on the longest this morning through afternoon. HYS may see
VFR by mid to late morning as they should be on the edge of the
stratus field.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 51 64 47 60 / 20 40 60 60
GCK 51 64 46 60 / 30 40 50 40
EHA 53 73 49 65 / 10 40 50 30
LBL 53 70 48 64 / 20 40 50 40
HYS 50 60 47 56 / 10 40 60 60
P28 51 64 50 62 / 10 30 50 60
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
408 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
...COLD WITH FROST INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT BUT
STAYING WARMER ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER UPR LAKES PERSISTS BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROPPED ACROSS MANTIOBA ON WEDNESDAY
HAS LED TO CLUSTER OF SHRA AND TSRA OVER ND THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER MN IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISIPPATE WHILE MOVING TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
HAS BECOME CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY AT 1037MB/30.6 INCHES. RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS TO SOUTHWEST OVER LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN...BUT WEAK
GRADIENT IS STILL PRESENT...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE SFC. RESULT IS
THAT SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST ARE NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE
NIGHT/WED MORNING. LOWEST TEMP AS OF 3 AM EDT IS 27 DEGREES AT THE
FIRE WX RAWS SITES ON THE BARAGA PLAINS AND OVER NORTHERN LUCE
COUNTY. LOWEST TEMP AT HOME WEATHER SITE IS 29 NEAR PEAVY FALLS DAM
IN EASTERN IRON COUNTY...WHILE LOWEST TEMP AT AWOS/ASOS
SITES IS 30 DEGREES AT LAND O LAKES WI.
EAST FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND SOME MOISTURE AROUND 900MB/3KFT
AGL IS RESULTING IN SC/CU CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND MORE SO OVER DOOR PENINSULA JUST TO EAST OF MENOMINEE. RAP AND
GFS WERE NOT AS OVERDONE WITH RH AS NAM/GEM-REGIONAL. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE AS THEY HAVE LAST COUPLE DAYS...TO A SCT-BKN CU DECK IN
THE MORNING AND THEN TO MIX OUT IN THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR IS MIXED
INTO THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. WARMING AT H9 SHOULD ALSO WORK AGAINST
AFTN CLOUD COVER. H85 TEMPS ARE WARMER BY 1-2C THAN WED...BUT LOW-
LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER. THESE OFFSET AND SHOULD
RESULT IN MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WARMEST INTERIOR WEST.
LOWS FOR TONIGHT AND RESULTING FROST POTENTIAL IS TRICKY. GRADIENT
JUST ABOVE SFC TIGHTENS EVEN MORE...AS SEEN IN H95-H925 LAYER. BUT
PWATS ARE MUCH LOWER THAN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST SO THERE COULD
BE GREATER RADIATIONAL COOLING. DID NOT ALTER GOING FORECAST MINS
TOO MUCH INLAND...BUT DID RAISE TEMPS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
INSTEAD OF ISSUING SEPARATE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LIKE LAST TWO
MORNINGS...MENTIONED FROST POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IN GOING STATEMENT
FOR THIS MORNINGS FROST/FREEZE AS EXPECT FROST TONIGHT TO BE MORE
PATCHY. DAYSHIFT CAN ISSUE APPROPRIATE HEADLINE LATER TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL BE TEMPS AS DRY
HI PRES STRETCHING FM SE CANADA INTO THE UPR LKS WL REMAIN DOMINANT.
NEXT BEST SHOT AT PCPN WL BE NEXT TUE/WED AS RDG BREAKS DOWN AND A
MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.
FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS HI AMPLITUDE UPR RDG BUILDS FM THE PLAINS
TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND THEN INTO SE CANADA...SFC HI PRES RDG
STRETCHING FM NEAR JAMES BAY INTO THE UPR LKS WL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY
AND STRENGTHEN. THE DRY AIRMASS UNDER THIS RDG...WITH PWAT IN THE
0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE...WL RESULT IN CONTINUED PCPN FREE WX. ON
FRI...H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK ARND 4C BUT THEN ONLY ARND 2C ON
SAT. WITH THE SOMEWHAT COOLER H85 TEMPS...THERE SHOULD BE MORE
DIURNAL CU ON SAT. BEGINNING ON FRI NGT...MODELS FCST WEAK SHRTWV/
MORE HI LVL MSTR AND HI CLDS WL SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE SE FLOW
ALF ARND UPR RDG CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY. THESE CLDS AND A STEADY E
WIND...WITH H925 WINDS UP TO 15-25 KTS...WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
DROP ON FRI/SAT NGTS AND FROST POTENTIAL. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AN AREA THAT
WL BE MORE SHELTERED FM THE E FLOW. HI TEMPS ON FRI WL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60 BUT THEN PROBABLY ONLY THE MID 50S ON SAT
WITH THE LOWER H85 TEMPS/MORE HI CLDS AND SOME DIURNAL CU.
SUN/MON...ALTHOUGH THE UPR RDG OVER SE CANADA IS FCST TO WEAKEN
DURING THIS TIME AND A ALLOW A TRANSITION TO A MORE WSW FLOW ALF
ALONG THE CNDN BORDER...A SFC HI PRES RDG...ALBEIT A WEAKENING
ONE...IS FCST TO LINGER FM SE CANADA INTO THE UPR LKS. RECENT
ECMWF RUNS HAVE GENERATED SOME PCPN OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF
UPR MI WITH MORE MSTR ROTATING NNWD INTO THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE MOST
OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN HI PRES RDG/DEEP DRY AIR LINGERING FARTHER FM
CLOSED LO OVER THE SE CONUS...FAVOR A DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD EVEN
IF THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HI CLD IS ARND...
SUN NGT COULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER THE SFC RDG AXIS/LIGHT WINDS.
TUE/WED...A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE MORE ZONAL UPR FLOW OVER SRN
CANADA IS FCST TO MOVE E WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/MORE MSTR IN A
WEAKER SRN BRANCH WSW FLOW IN THE CONUS ARE FCST TO APRCH FM THE SW.
WHILE THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT MORE CLDS AND SHOWER
CHCS TO RETURN AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
WARMER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT NGT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU OFF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND THU MORNING...POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING KSAW/KCMX...CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE ABOVE 3000FT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE LAKE SUPERIOR THRU SAT AS HIGH PRES IN
SE CANADA RIDGES BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES VCNTY. DURING THIS TIME
WINDS WILL VARY BTWN THE 10-20 KT AND 15-25 KT RANGE. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN...RESULTING IN WINDS
UNDER 20 KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003-005>007-012>014-085.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
004-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
407 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
THE GFS AND ECM MODELS ARE SLOWING UP THE START TIME FOR RAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NAM AND SREF ARE VERY FAST RESEMBLING THE HRRR
WHICH BEGINS RAINFALL BY NOONTIME ACROSS WRN NEB. THE RAP IS
SLOWER LIKE THE GFS AND ECM WHICH SUGGESTS THE SLOWER MODELS
WOULD BE MORE ACCURATE.
THE FORECAST USES THE SLOWER MODELS WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE STEEP ENOUGH IN THE
00Z LBF AND UNR SOUNDINGS FOR A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS TODAY CONTINUE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. THE GUIDANCE CAME IN
VERY COOL FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC MODEL DATA FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
WHICH MIGHT STILL BE TOO COOL GIVEN THE SOUTHEAST WINDS...CLOUD
COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAINFALL. WHICH ARGUABLY COULD
CAUSE EVAPORATIVE COOLING BUT NOT NEARLY THE AMOUNT SUGGESTED BY
THE GUIDANCE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
LONG TERM IS ACTIVE...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODELS STILL
STRUGGLING TO AGREE...ESPECIALLY FOR NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL AID IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND ADD SOME UPSLOPE BL FLOW
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WEST OF 83. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE CHILLY
SIDE...50S TO LOW 60S FOR FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL
LIFT/WEAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS RIDGE SHIFTS/STALLS OVER
THE MISS RVR VALLEY. THIS BRINGS QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE
SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS DECENT
FOR OCTOBER AND WILL CONTINUE TO RETAIN CHANCE WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS AS THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
STILL WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...WITH THE GFS ON THE
FASTER SIDE THIS MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
INTO THE 60S AND 70S. SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG/POST FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TEMPS COOL INTO THE 50S AND 60S IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 3000 TO
4000 FT AGL TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER LATE
THURSDAY MORNING CIGS WILL INCREASE TO 5000 FT AGL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...INCREASING FURTHER TO 10000 FT AGL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT CIGS RANGING FROM 5000
TO 10000 FT AGL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH CIGS RANGING
FROM 10000 TO 15000 FT AGL THEREAFTER. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
111 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
APPROACH THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WEST. HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS...PASSING BY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...LAST NEAR-TERM UPDATE OF THE NIGHT. FRONT
HAS PUSHED THROUGH LUMBERTON...BENNETTSVILLE AND HARTSVILLE AND
SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL OF THE ILM FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. WE ARE
IN A SERIOUS LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE RELATIVELY LITTLE COVERAGE IN SHOWERS THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT IN DEFERENCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST I WILL SHOW
AN INCREASING TREND IN POPS AFTER 3 AM. THIS EFFECT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA WHERE LIFT OVER THE SLOPED FRONTAL
SURFACE SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...AREAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT BEGINNING
8PM THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN EXCEEDINGLY WET BUT SURPRISINGLY COOL PERIOD ON TAP FOR THE
SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT...UPPER LOW...AND COPIOUS TROPICAL
MOISTURE COMBINE ACROSS THE AREA. HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL PLAY A
FACTOR TOO...BUT THE TRACK OF THAT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND DIRECT
IMPACTS...IF ANY...WILL BE AFTER THE SHORT TERM.
SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO KS/ND TODAY WILL AMPLIFY INTO A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN CLOSE OFF AND NEGATIVELY
TILT... POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORIDA...IN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED AND ANOMALOUS PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE...THIS WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE JUST BEFORE THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH
THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. COOL/DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE MUCH
LOWER DEWPOINTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...BUT AT THE SAME TIME
SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD...SO EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING WILL ACTUALLY BE TAKING PLACE THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A CHILLY RAIN...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CLEARLY EVIDENT
ON PWAT ANALYSIS WILL BE DRIVEN BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS...DIRECTED RIGHT FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JOAQUIN. IT IS THIS MOIST CONVEYOR...A
"TROPICAL FIREHOSE" TO TAKE THE TERM FROM A SPENES MESSAGE 5 YEARS
AGO...THAT WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT
LATE THIS WEEK.
RAINFALL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD AS SATURATED LOW LEVEL
FLOW GETS ANGLED BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS...LIFTED ATOP THE STALLED
BOUNDARY...AND WRUNG OUT LOCALLY. PWATS WILL APPROACH 2.25 TO 2.5
INCHES...AND AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE INCREASES BOTH DUE TO THE
NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING 200MB JET
STREAK TO THE NW...RAINFALL WILL BECOME HEAVIER...AND CATEGORICAL
RAIN HAS BEEN ADDED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RAMPING DOWN TO LIKELY BY SATURDAY DUE TO THE TEMPORAL
EXTENT. ALL OF THIS RAIN WILL BE EXCLUSIVE FROM HURRICANE
JOAQUIN...ALTHOUGH THAT MOISTURE WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A HUGE ROLE
INTO THE QPF. WPC 1-3 DAY QPF MATCHES QUITE WELL WITH THE LOCAL
STORMTOTAL GRID...AND EXPECT 3-5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE BEYOND THIS SHORT TERM. OF COURSE THIS IS A
BASIN AVERAGE...AND MUCH HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR COUNTIES.
THIS LONG DURATION HEAVY RAIN EVENT HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF AN
AREAL FLOOD WATCH...AND WPC HAS ALSO OUTLINED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FLOODING WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CONCERN AND CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT. AT THE SAME
TIME...WHILE THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN OTHER IMPACTS...THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS FROM THE N/NE WILL INCREASE TO 15-20
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PWS34 PROBS CONTINUE TO RISE AS WELL...SO
ALTHOUGH NO TS FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS THE TRACK FOR JOAQUIN BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. ANY
STRONG WINDS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DOWN TREES AND CAUSE POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY AS THE GROUND BECOMES SATURATED. THE FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AND MAY BE NEEDED EVEN FURTHER INTO
THE LONG TERM.
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE QUITE COOL AS WARM ADVECTION IS SLOW TO
OCCUR FROM THE EAST. IF JOAQUIN STAYS WELL EAST OF THE AREA WE MAY
NEVER EXPERIENCE WARM "TROPICAL" TEMPS...AND HAVE HIGHS ON FRIDAY
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A VERY LIMITED DIURNAL
RANGE WILL KEEP MINS ONLY 5-10 DEGREES COOLER FROM THE DAYTIME
HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...ALL EYES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL
CYCLONE THAT WILL BE CLOSING OFF IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS
INTERACTION WITH JOAQUIN. THE 1200 OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES ITS
RECENT TREND OF CAPTURING JOAQUIN AND MOVING IT DIRECTLY DUE WEST
AND NOW SHOWS IT MOVING ONSHORE JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. ITS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THIS IS ONLY ONE SOLUTION AND THE FORECAST TRACK
IS LIKELY TO CHANGE BACK AND FORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WITH NHC HAVING THE FINAL SAY ON THE TRACK...THE EXTENDED WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE LIKELY POPS AS THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEMS. THIS FOR
SATURDAY TRENDING DOWNWARD INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS STILL LOOK
QUIET AFTER THE EVENT WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD...CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS...AREAS OF
FOG...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS PLACE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
LUMBERTON. A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. POST-FRONTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MUCH OF THE SAME WITH A MIXTURE OF
RESTRICTIONS WITH POSSIBLE LOW CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...INCREASING TO 10-12 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT RAIN...SOMETIMES HEAVY...WITH MVFR/TEMPO
IFR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...FEW CHANGES WITH THIS LAST NEAR-TERM
UPDATE OF THE NIGHT. FRONT IS MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN THE HRRR OR
RUC IS FORECASTING...VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS TIMING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 PM
WEDNESDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN...BUT DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY BEGINNING THURSDAY.
COLD FRONT OFFSHORE TO START THE PERIOD WILL LEAVE NE WINDS IN ITS
WAKE...WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KTS MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THESE WINDS WILL
CREATE AN AMPLIFICATION OF NE WIND WAVES...WITH A 5 SEC CHOP
GROWING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE
FROM THE LONG DURATION EASTERLY FETCH...PROVIDING A 10-SEC AT 4-6
FT SWELL...AND THEN POTENTIALLY A LARGER SWELL FROM HURRICANE
JOAQUIN. ALL OF THESE WAVE GROUPS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS GROWING FROM 3-6 FT EARLY THURSDAY TO AS MUCH AS
8-10 FT LATE FRIDAY. A LOT CAN CHANGE DURING THIS PERIOD OF COURSE
AND WILL HINGE ON JOAQUINS TRACK. HOWEVER...AN SCA HAS BEEN RAISED
BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND FRIDAY...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
WHETHER OR NOT TROPICAL HAZARDS ARE RAISED. EITHER WAY...MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE DANGEROUS LATE INTO THE
SHORT TERM AND BEYOND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CYCLONES...ONE TROPICAL (JOAQUIN) AND THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM
AND EVENTUAL SURFACE REFLECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED THE ONSHORE FLOW
EARLY ON SATURDAY QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO OFFSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AS
JOAQUIN MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN AREN`T THAT
PROLIFIC WITH RANGES OF 15-20 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL BE ANOTHER
STORY WITH SOME DECENT WIND WAVES BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
GENERATED BY LARGE SWELL COMPONENTS. COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 6-10
FEET DROPPING OFF LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1115 PM WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AT ALL BEACHES HAS DIMINISHED AND THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED...AS PEAK TIDE GAGE READINGS AT JOHNNY MERCER AND
SPRINGMAID PIER FALL SHORT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT REMAINS FOR THE LOWER CAPE FEAR
RIVER TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY THRU 300 AM THU...AS HIGH TIDE IS STAGGERED UP TO 2.5
HOURS LATER THAN THE BEACHES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
TWEAKED POPS FURTHER AS A BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES OVER THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE HRRR HAS THE EASTERN ACTIVITY DISSIPATING
OR MOVING NORTH INTO CANADA SO HAVE THE WESTERN PRECIP TAKE OVER
AND LINGER OVER THAT AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY BUT THE
MAIN SHOW IS WITH THE STORMS ENTERING OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
FROM ROLETTE COUNTY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SCATTERED POPS GOING AND
HAVE THEM RAMPING UP THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A FAIRLY DECENT
VORT MAX DIGS DOWN OUT OF THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW. PRECIP WILL NOT
MAKE TOO MUCH PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BEFORE
THE ENTIRE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO RETROGRADE AND TAKE THE SHOWER
THREAT WITH IT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
ADJUSTED POPS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS JUST A
TAD AS CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ONLY A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA
CONTINUES TO WOBBLE SOUTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
MAIN IMPACTS THIS PERIOD WILL COME FROM AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...REALLY ONLY EXPECTING AREAS OF SHOWERS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THESE SHOWERS WILL HANG
AROUND INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE HUDSON BAY UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES
INTO THE REGION (BRINGING IN A LOW LEVEL DRY EASTERLY FLOW).
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE FROST POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...BUT
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND SFC WINDS. THE MORE PRONE LOW LYING
AREAS MAY APPROACH THE LOW-MID 30S...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY SHOW DRY CONDS WITH MAIN
STORM TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PROVINCES...WITH DRY WX OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LOW OVER ROCKIES DEVELOPED
BY MON (ON GFS) BRINGS A SW RIDGE OVER DAKOTAS MON NIGHT WHILE
ECMWF HAS LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
ALOFT...BRINGING THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS SEEN IN SUPERBLEND ON TUE.
THEREFORE LOW CONFIDENCE IN POPS FOR SPECIFIC PERIODS MID NEXT
WEEK...BUT IN GENERAL...WITH SW FLOW PATTERN SHOWING ON BOTH
MODELS BY TUE...WE WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE
TUE TO THU TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN GUSTS BUT STILL ARE SUSTAINED
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS OR SO. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY MID MORNING
AND WILL GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS OR SO BY AFTERNOON. THE END OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD START TO SEE WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AND DECREASING
CLOUDS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
301 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across
parts of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma...in zone of
isentropic lift noted along 305K surface. HRRR appears to have a
reasonable handle on this...and will carry some low PoPs through
the morning hours generally west of Highway 75. Otherwise expect
a cool start to October...with high temperatures running a few
degrees below seasonal norms.
Surface ridging will lock in the dry low-level airmass across the
region through the weekend and into early next week...with
several days of seasonally cool weather in store. 00Z model runs
continue to keep highest mean RH to our west...and the forecast
will remain dry.
The mid-level ridge will eventually erode next week as pieces of
shortwave energy eject east out the mean trof position. Southerly
flow and improving moisture will kick in by Tuesday...with rain
chances increasing toward mid-week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 74 47 69 47 / 10 10 0 0
FSM 77 49 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 77 49 70 48 / 10 10 0 0
BVO 72 42 69 42 / 10 10 0 0
FYV 70 40 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 68 45 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 73 47 69 47 / 0 10 0 0
MIO 69 45 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
F10 73 49 68 48 / 10 10 0 0
HHW 81 52 76 48 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
910 PM PDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW REMAINS OFF THE OREGON COAST WHILE A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LITTLE
CHANGE TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ROTATES INLAND WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SW WASHINGTON
AND NW OREGON THIS EVENING. BASED ON THESE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS
DECIDED TO CUT FCST SKY COVER CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS. THE LATEST FCST MODELS...INCLUDING THE
00Z NAM AND THE 02Z RAP INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL STILL FORM
ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AND PUSH INTO THE COASTAL GAPS
AND AND PARTIALLY UP THE LOWER COLUMBIA. BUT THINK THE EXTENT OF THE
MARINE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN WE SAW LAST NIGHT.
GIVEN THAT DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 50S TONIGHT THROUGH THE
VALLEY...THINK WE MAY SEE SOME RADIATIONAL LOW STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG
IN THE VALLEY TOWARD DAYBREAK THU MORNING. GIVEN THE DECREASED SKY
COVER...ALSO NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MANY
LOCATIONS.
EXPECT ANY CLOUD COVER THAT DOES FORM OVERNIGHT TO BURN OFF BY LATE
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER GENERALLY SUNNY AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES INLAND REMAIN IN THE 70S...WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS ONSHORE
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY
ALLOWING A TRANSIENT AND WEAK AREA HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY BUT WITH ONSHORE LOW LEVEL
FLOW...EXPECT MARINE STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR FRIDAY
MORNING. THESE MARINE CLOUDS LIKELY CLEAR BY LATE MORNING
FRIDAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.
WHILE MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL DIFFER ON SOME OF THE TIMING AND TRACK
DETAILS...CONTINUED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A BLEND OF MODELS WITH A
SLIGHT PREFERENCE TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. THE LATEST MODELS
BRING THE UPPER LOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS RANGES
TO A TRACK FROM JUST EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST TO THE WILLAMETTE
VALLEY. REGARDLESS...EXPECT THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE UPPER LOW LARGELY OVER LAND
FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO OREGON. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO DROP
TO AROUND 7000 FEET...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY REMAIN
RESTRICTED TO THE HIGH CASCADES. PYLE
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...WITH FORECAST MODELS ONLY IN MODEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
PRECISE SPEED AND TRACK THAT IT WILL TAKE. WHILE THE LOW MAY CONTINUE
SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA /PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION/ OR EAST TOWARDS THE
GREAT BASIN /MORE IN THE LINE THE GFS/ EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO END FOR
ALL EXCEPT PERHAPS THE LANE AND LINN COUNTY CASCADES. CONTINUED TO
TREND THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TRACK. THIS PROVIDES FOR A
DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AND CLOUDS DECREASING FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASE TOWARDS
MIDWEEK IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SKIES
ARE STAYING CLEAR OUT 120 MI OFFSHORE...WHICH HAS DECREASED
CONFIDENCE DRAMATICALLY THAT MVFR STRATUS WILL PUSH INLAND AGAIN
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. STILL THINK FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST...DROPPING CIGS AND/OR VIS AT COASTAL TAF
SITES TO IFR/LIFR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. FOG OR
LOW STRATUS SHOULD START TO BREAK UP AROUND 17Z-19Z AND IMPROVE TO
VFR BY AROUND 20Z. INLAND SITES SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH FOG PRONE AREAS MAY SEE PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AROUND 14Z. ANY FOG INLAND SHOULD
BURN OFF RIGHT AWAY AFTER SUNRISE...BY AROUND 15Z-16Z. VFR
CONDITIONS INLAND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXCEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG BRIEFLY
LOWERING CIGS AND VIS TO IFR AROUND 14Z-15Z THURSDAY
MORNING. -MCCOY
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATERS IS KEEPING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAK OVER THE WATERS. THIS
KEEPS WINDS RELATIVELY CALM THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SEAS CURRENTLY
AROUND 4 TO 5 FT GRADUALLY BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FT BY FRIDAY AS LARGER
SWELL MOVES IN GENERATED BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
THE TIMING AND DETAILS ARE STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO TIMING AND
DETAILS COULD STILL CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND. -MCCOY
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
533 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THESE LOCATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW AND A POTENTIAL...PROLONGED WET PERIOD. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO WEEKEND AS THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DRAWS MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1036 MB SFC HIGH NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA WILL STRENGTHEN TO OVER
1040 MB AS IT BUILDS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HEADED
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN BEGINNING TO EXPAND TO THE NORTHWEST...INTO OUR LOWER SUSQ
REGION AND PERHAPS THE SCENT MTN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...A BRISK NORTH TO NE FLOW OF 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY OVC SKIES CREATED FROM MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS.
05Z-07Z HRRR SHOWS SEVERAL PULSES OF WEAKENING SHOWERS BEING SENT
TO THE NW AND INTO OUR CENTRAL AND SE ZONES...BUT EACH RUN APPEARS
TO BE DRIER FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.
THE MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH SHOULD PEAK IN THE
1044-1046MB RANGE THIS WEEKEND...AND REACH A +2 TO +3 SIGMA
PRESSURE ANOMALY BY THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT
MOSTLY RAIN FREE DAY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES AS WELL.
CLOUDS AND THE NW EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD NEAR THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE NWWD TODAY. THE HRRR...NAM...AND SREF ALL
CLEARLY SHOW LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO YORK AND
LANCASTER COUNTIES AND WORKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. QUICKLY BROUGHT A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
POPS COMING UP FURTHER DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN WILL
FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
GEFS MAINTAINS A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT OF PWAT FROM SE-NW ACROSS
PENN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PLUS 1 SIGMA PWATS BRUSHING OUR FAR
SE ZONES AND MINUS 1 PWATS NEAR KBFD.
AS THE EAST-NORTHEAST WIND VEERS AROUND A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST
FRIDAY...THEN SE SATURDAY AND INCREASES TO -3 TO -4 SIGMA...WE/LL
SEE THICK CLOUD COVER CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHC
FOR RAIN.
STRONGEST SERLY FLOW AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD IMPACT THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT SCENT PENN WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN...ALONG WITH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE NEXT WEATHER ISSUE SURROUNDS THE TRACK AND EVENTUAL IMPACT OF
HURRICANE JOAQUIN. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW
AND MASSIVE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL QUEBEC CANADA
WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. THE HRRR AND NCEP
SREF SHOWS THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THE AFTERNOON. SO WE DEPICTED RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWED THIS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOCUSED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM NEAR 40F...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENN. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATION
AND ORIENTATION OF THE PWATS...THE NW EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL PENN
ON FRIDAY.
A HIGHER...LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WILL EXIST SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR
LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: WE NUDGED TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND
MODIFIED THE QPF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL RAIN EVENT SETTING
UP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PA TO START ON FRIDAY.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND ALSO
ADDED CHC OF RAIN INTO MONDAY.
ALSO LOWER TEMPS SOME AND UP WINDS.
MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT BACKING TO THE WEST BY LATE SAT.
THIS WOULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD MOVE WEST OF OUR AREA BY LATE SAT OR
EARLY SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING AT A STRONG EAST TO SE FLOW OF
AIR OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...HEAVY
RAIN ETC.
ALSO STILL SOME TIME TO DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTION
WITH WITH THE TROPICS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STALLED OUT FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL COAST WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO BE LIFTED OVER IT AND PULLED NWWD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWWD TD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
EVEN IF SOON TO BE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES A TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATL REGION PER THE EC AND LATEST TPC GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
AND BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW /WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS -4 TO -5
SIGMA EASTERLY LLVL WIND AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR/ WILL
TRANSPORT PULSE OF RAIN INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...UP AND OVER THE
VERY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS PENN. TEMPS SATURDAY...MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE
THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD EDGE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 15 DEG
IN SOME AREAS.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE MDT AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE NRN EDGE OF A 2 INCH/24 HOUR AREA OF RAIN SKIRTING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS A PRE TYPE EVENT...WITH MORE DIRECT EFFECTS /IF
ANY/ FROM JOAQUIN COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDS PERSISTING AT KJST AT 09Z. OTHERWISE...DOWNSLOPING
NORTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AIRFIELDS AND LOW VFR /3-4K FT/ AT KMDT AND KLNS. PRES
GRADIENT BTWN FRONTAL BNDRY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRES TO THE
NORTH KEEPING THE NORTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10KTS.
HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIRMASS PRESSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA SHOULD
ENSURE MAINLY VFR CONDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY THU AFTN. ONLY
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KMDT/KLNS...WHERE SOME MDL DATA
INDICATES A RETURN OF -SHRA/MVFR CIGS ASSOC WITH QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
CONDS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FRI INTO SAT...AS RAIN AND LOW CIGS
PUSH BACK INTO CENTRAL PA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
519 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THESE LOCATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW AND A POTENTIAL...PROLONGED WET PERIOD. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO WEEKEND AS THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DRAWS MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1036 MB SFC HIGH NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA WILL STRENGTHEN TO OVER
1040 MB AS IT BUILDS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HEADED
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN BEGINNING TO EXPAND TO THE NORTHWEST...INTO OUR LOWER SUSQ
REGION AND PERHAPS THE SCENT MTN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...A BRISK NORTH TO NE FLOW OF 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY OVC SKIES CREATED FROM MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS.
05Z-07Z HRRR SHOWS SEVERAL PULSES OF WEAKENING SHOWERS BEING SENT
TO THE NW AND INTO OUR CENTRAL AND SE ZONES...BUT EACH RUN APPEARS
TO BE DRIER FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.
THE MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH SHOULD PEAK IN THE
1044-1046MB RANGE THIS WEEKEND...AND REACH A +2 TO +3 SIGMA
PRESSURE ANOMALY BY THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT
MOSTLY RAIN FREE DAY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES AS WELL.
CLOUDS AND THE NW EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD NEAR THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE NWWD TODAY. THE HRRR...NAM...AND SREF ALL
CLEARLY SHOW LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO YORK AND
LANCASTER COUNTIES AND WORKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. QUICKLY BROUGHT A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
POPS COMING UP FURTHER DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN WILL
FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
GEFS MAINTAINS A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT OF PWAT FROM SE-NW ACROSS
PENN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PLUS 1 SIGMA PWATS BRUSHING OUR FAR
SE ZONES AND MINUS 1 PWATS NEAR KBFD.
AS THE EAST-NORTHEAST WIND VEERS AROUND A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST
FRIDAY...THEN SE SATURDAY AND INCREASES TO -3 TO -4 SIGMA...WE/LL
SEE THICK CLOUD COVER CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHC
FOR RAIN.
STRONGEST SERLY FLOW AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD IMPACT THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT SCENT PENN WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN...ALONG WITH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE NEXT WEATHER ISSUE SURROUNDS THE TRACK AND EVENTUAL IMPACT OF
HURRICANE JOAQUIN. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW
AND MASSIVE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL QUEBEC CANADA
WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. THE HRRR AND NCEP
SREF SHOWS THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THE AFTERNOON. SO WE DEPICTED RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWED THIS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOCUSED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM NEAR 40F...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENN. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATION
AND ORIENTATION OF THE PWATS...THE NW EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL PENN
ON FRIDAY.
A HIGHER...LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WILL EXIST SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR
LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: WE NUDGED TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND
MODIFIED THE QPF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL RAIN EVENT SETTING
UP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PA TO START ON FRIDAY.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND ALSO
ADDED CHC OF RAIN INTO MONDAY.
ALSO LOWER TEMPS SOME AND UP WINDS.
MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT BACKING TO THE WEST BY LATE SAT.
THIS WOULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD MOVE WEST OF OUR AREA BY LATE SAT OR
EARLY SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING AT A STRONG EAST TO SE FLOW OF
AIR OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...HEAVY
RAIN ETC.
ALSO STILL SOME TIME TO DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTION
WITH WITH THE TROPICS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STALLED OUT FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL COAST WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO BE LIFTED OVER IT AND PULLED NWWD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWWD TD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
EVEN IF SOON TO BE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES A TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATL REGION PER THE EC AND LATEST TPC GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
AND BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW /WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS -4 TO -5
SIGMA EASTERLY LLVL WIND AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR/ WILL
TRANSPORT PULSE OF RAIN INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...UP AND OVER THE
VERY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS PENN. TEMPS SATURDAY...MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE
THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD EDGE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 15 DEG
IN SOME AREAS.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE MDT AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE NRN EDGE OF A 2 INCH/24 HOUR AREA OF RAIN SKIRTING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS A PRE TYPE EVENT...WITH MORE DIRECT EFFECTS /IF
ANY/ FROM JOAQUIN COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE N/W MTNS ON NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS AT KJST AND BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR
CIGS AT KBFD AT 06Z...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW IS
RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AIRFIELDS AND VFR IN VICINITY OF KMDT/KLNS.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY
RISING CIGS OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF KJST. PRES GRADIENT BTWN FRONTAL BNDRY TO THE SOUTH
AND HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE NORTHERLY WINDS UP
TONIGHT AT ARND 10KTS.
HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS PRESSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THU AFTN.
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KMDT/KLNS...WHERE SOME MDL DATA
INDICATES A RETURN OF -SHRA/MVFR CIGS ASSOC WITH QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
319 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS SETS UP
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND A POTENTIAL PROLONGED WET PERIOD.
SO...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
WEEKEND AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DRAWS MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
1036 MB SFC HIGH NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA WILL STRENGTHEN TO OVER
1040 MB AS IT BUILDS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HEADED
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN BEGINNING TO EXPAND TO THE NORTHWEST...INTO OUR LOWER SUSQ
REGION AND PERHAPS THE SCENT MTN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...A BRISK NORTH TO NE FLOW OF 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY OVC SKIES CREATED FROM MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS.
05Z HRRR SHOWS SOME PULSES OF WEAKENING SHOWERS BEING SENT TO THE
NW AND INTO OUR CENTRAL AND SE ZONES...BUT HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF
SOUTHERN PENN AND THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH COULD PEAK AT 1040 MB WITH
ABOUT +2 TO +3 SIGMA PRESSURE ANOMALIES BY EVENING. THE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MOSTLY RAIN FREE
DAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHIELD MOVING NORTHWARD. THE HRRR...NAM AND SREF
ALL CLEARLY SHOW LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO YORK AND
LANCASTER COUNTIES AND WORKING SLOWLY NORTWESTHWARD DURING THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. QUICKLY BROUGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...WITH POPS COMING UP FURTHER
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN WILL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY.
THE ISSUE IS THE LOW PRESSURE AND THE CIRCULATION WITH HURRICANE
JOAQUIN. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW AND MASSIVE
ANTICYCLONE WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. THE
NCEP SREF SHOWS THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THE AFTERNOON. SO WE DEPICTED RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWED THIS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOCUSED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON LOOK LIKE THEY WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF 60...COOLER NORTH...MILDER SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: WE NUDGED TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND
MODIFIED THE QPF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL RAIN EVENT SETTING
UP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PA TO START ON FRIDAY.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND ALSO
ADDED CHC OF RAIN INTO MONDAY.
ALSO LOWER TEMPS SOME AND UP WINDS.
MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT BACKING TO THE WEST BY LATE SAT.
THIS WOULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD MOVE WEST OF OUR AREA BY LATE SAT OR
EARLY SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING AT A STRONG EAST TO SE FLOW OF
AIR OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...HEAVY
RAIN ETC.
ALSO STILL SOME TIME TO DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTION
WITH WITH THE TROPICS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STALLED OUT FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL COAST WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO BE LIFTED OVER IT AND PULLED NWWD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWWD TD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
EVEN IF SOON TO BE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES A TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATL REGION PER THE EC AND LATEST TPC GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
AND BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW /WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS -4 TO -5
SIGMA EASTERLY LLVL WIND AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR/ WILL
TRANSPORT PULSE OF RAIN INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...UP AND OVER THE
VERY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS PENN. TEMPS SATURDAY...MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE
THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD EDGE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 15 DEG
IN SOME AREAS.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE MDT AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE NRN EDGE OF A 2 INCH/24 HOUR AREA OF RAIN SKIRTING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS A PRE TYPE EVENT...WITH MORE DIRECT EFFECTS /IF
ANY/ FROM JOAQUIN COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE N/W MTNS ON NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS AT KJST AND BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR
CIGS AT KBFD AT 06Z...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW IS
RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AIRFIELDS AND VFR IN VICINITY OF KMDT/KLNS.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY
RISING CIGS OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF KJST. PRES GRADIENT BTWN FRONTAL BNDRY TO THE SOUTH
AND HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE NORTHERLY WINDS UP
TONIGHT AT ARND 10KTS.
HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS PRESSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THU AFTN.
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KMDT/KLNS...WHERE SOME MDL DATA
INDICATES A RETURN OF -SHRA/MVFR CIGS ASSOC WITH QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
128 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS SETS UP
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND A POTENTIAL PROLONGED WET PERIOD.
SO...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
WEEKEND AS A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
DRAWS MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR CHANGES. HIGH PRESSURE STILL BUILDING IN. SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD AND RAIN SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH MAY BEGIN TO CREEP INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN AREA A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. TO THE NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD BE DRY. HRRR RUNS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN ARRIVES IN THE 6 TO 10
AM TIME IN SOUTHEAST. OPTIMISTICALLY SHOWED RAIN IN SE AFTER 8 AM
IN GRIDS/ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH COULD PEAK AT 1040 MB WITH
ABOUT +2 TO +3 SIGMA PRESSURE ANOMALIES BY EVENING. THE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MOSTLY RAIN FREE
DAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHIELD MOVING NORTHWARD. THE HRRR CLEARLY SHOWS
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES AND WORKING
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. QUICKLY BROUGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND POPS COMING UP DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN
WILL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE ISSUE IS THE LOW PRESSURE AND THE CIRCULATION WITH HURRICANE
JOAQUIN. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW AND MASSIVE
ANTICYCLONE WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. THE
NCEP SREF SHOWS THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THE AFTERNOON. SO WE DEPICTED RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWED THIS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOCUSED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS THURSDAY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF 60...COOLER NORTH...MILDER SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: WE NUDGED TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND
MODIFIED THE QPF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL RAIN EVENT SETTING
UP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PA TO START ON FRIDAY.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND ALSO
ADDED CHC OF RAIN INTO MONDAY.
ALSO LOWER TEMPS SOME AND UP WINDS.
MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT BACKING TO THE WEST BY LATE SAT.
THIS WOULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD MOVE WEST OF OUR AREA BY LATE SAT OR
EARLY SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING AT A STRONG EAST TO SE FLOW OF
AIR OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...HEAVY
RAIN ETC.
ALSO STILL SOME TIME TO DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTION
WITH WITH THE TROPICS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STALLED OUT FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL COAST WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO BE LIFTED OVER IT AND PULLED NWWD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWWD TD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
EVEN IF SOON TO BE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES A TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATL REGION PER THE EC AND LATEST TPC GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
AND BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW /WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS -4 TO -5
SIGMA EASTERLY LLVL WIND AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR/ WILL
TRANSPORT PULSE OF RAIN INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...UP AND OVER THE
VERY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS PENN. TEMPS SATURDAY...MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE
THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD EDGE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 15 DEG
IN SOME AREAS.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE MDT AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE NRN EDGE OF A 2 INCH/24 HOUR AREA OF RAIN SKIRTING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS A PRE TYPE EVENT...WITH MORE DIRECT EFFECTS /IF
ANY/ FROM JOAQUIN COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE N/W MTNS ON NORTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IFR CIGS AT KJST AND BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR
CIGS AT KBFD AT 06Z...WHILE DOWNSLOPING NORTHERLY FLOW IS
RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AIRFIELDS AND VFR IN VICINITY OF KMDT/KLNS.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY
RISING CIGS OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF KJST. PRES GRADIENT BTWN FRONTAL BNDRY TO THE SOUTH
AND HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE NORTHERLY WINDS UP
TONIGHT AT ARND 10KTS.
HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRIER AIR MASS PRESSING SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY THU AFTN.
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KMDT/KLNS...WHERE SOME MDL DATA
INDICATES A RETURN OF -SHRA/MVFR CIGS ASSOC WITH QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT BRINGING MORE RAIN LATE TODAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. IN
ADDITION...STRONG COASTAL NORTHEAST WINDS AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO SATURDAY. MORE RAIN AND WIND IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE
JOAQUIN...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
NNE FLOW CONTINUES TO PULL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NRN NEW
ENGLAND HIGH PRES INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS KEEPING MUCH OF
THE REGION DRY AND EVEN ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERALL
SKY COVER. OTHERWISE...INITIAL BAND OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL WAVE CURRENTLY DELIVERING LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO ACK.
THIS INITIAL BAND WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE A REINFORCING WAVE DEVELOPS BY THE EVENING HOURS.
THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARD LATEST HRRR WHICH SHOWS THIS
HIGH-LOW-HIGH TREND IN POPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MOST INLAND LOCALES REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
AND EVENING HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND APPEARS TO BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY FOR TODAY. A
STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING IN
DRY AIR AS WELL AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER COULD SEE
SHOWERY WEATHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THANKS TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT POOLING AGAINST STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH PRECIP COULD GET AS BUILDING DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE MAY CREATE A SHARP QPF CUTOFF. TRENDED TOWARDS HI-
RES GUIDANCE AND NAM/GFS FOR TODAY IN PRECIP CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD PUSHING STALLED FRONT BACK TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
THE NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH
CONTINUES TO BUILD. LOCATIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE COULD SEE
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS IS BELOW WIND ADV...WITH THE
FULLY LEAVED TREES CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW TREES/BRANCHES COMING DOWN.
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY THE TIMING
AND AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS UNCERTAIN. MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON HEAVY PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THANKS TO THE DRY AIR
TO THE NORTH. RIGHT NOW HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP.
COLD AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. DO NOT BELIEVE
FROST HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AS BL WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH
TO STOP FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TOMORROW...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. BERMUDA HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN PUSHING THE STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST COULD SEE
CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAIN...LESS AS YOU MOVE FARTHER NORTH. HAVE A
LOW CONFIDENCE IF LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE PIKE WILL SEE PRECIP AS DRY
AIR WILL CREATE A TIGHT QPF GRADIENT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR PRECIP TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS.
FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH
WILL CREATE A SIMILAR COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE 60F WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COOLEST HIGH RECORDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RAIN LINGERING INTO FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY S COAST
* STRONG COASTAL NE WINDS WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE
DURING THE HIGH TIDES THROUGH SAT
* POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL
DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN
OVERVIEW...
THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THIS WILL DICTATE THE EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WIND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACTLY HOW JOAQUIN INTERACTS WITH SE US UPPER LOW AND DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING RIDGE AND THUS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE FORECAST
TRACK AMONG GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM
LANDFALL IN SC TO NYC TO COMPLETELY OUT TO SEA. SIGNIFICANT NWD
SHIFT IN GFS WITH TRACK NEAR NYC ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT HAVE SUPPORT
OF GEFS MEMBERS. UKMET ALSO SAW A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND IS NOW
KEEPING JOAQUIN OFFSHORE WHILE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL
RUNS WITH OFFSHORE TRACK. THIS MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CLUSTERING OF THE TROPICAL MODELS AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO SUGGEST JOAQUIN MAY EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
MID ATLC COAST WITH POSSIBLE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NC COAST AND
DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST. WE FOLLOWED NHC FORECAST WHICH WOULD KEEP THE MAIN
IMPACT SOUTH OF NEW ENG BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE
SOMETIME LATE SUN INTO MON. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE FURTHER E SOLUTIONS WITH NO IMPACT SO WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION VERY CLOSELY.
DAILIES...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THE S COAST ALONG WITH GOOD 850 MB
FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE S COAST. UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR N RAIN WILL GET AS
THERE IS A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE N. GFS
APPEARS TOO FAR N WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN AND SO WE KEPT HIGHEST
POPS NEAR THE S COAST WITH DECREASING POPS TO THE N. IT IS POSSIBLE
IT STAYS DRY N OF THE MASS PIKE. MOISTURE AND FORCING DECREASE
DURING SAT SO JUST SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. NE LOW LEVEL
JET 30-40 KT SETS UP ACROSS SNE AND WITH DECENT MIXING MUCH OF THIS
WIND WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT AND
POTENTIAL FOR 40 KT OVER THE ISLANDS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
FORECAST DEPENDS ON TRACK OF JOAQUIN. LOTS OF SPREAD MAKES FOR A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND COASTAL WIND.
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH TRACK FURTHER N ACROSS MID ATLC BUT
OFFSHORE SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN MINIMAL IMPACT. FOLLOWING NHC
FORECAST AND HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH STRONGER WINDS LIKELY
REMAINING TO THE S.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LIKELY AS JOAQUIN MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...VFR CIGS...EXCEPT MVFR IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE/ISLANDS AS SOME LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOPS. NE WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS ALONG THE COAST. G35 KT
ACK.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...ANY VFR WILL DROP TO MVFR FROM SE TO NW IN
DEVELOPING RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COULD SEE GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
NEAR THE S COAST WITH MOSTLY VFR NORTH OF THE PIKE. PERIODS OF RAIN
FRI NIGHT...MAINLY S COAST. NE GUSTS TO 25-35 KT...STRONGEST ACROSS
SE NEW ENG COAST.
SUN INTO MON...LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND ON TRACK OF
JOAQUIN. POTENTIAL FOR IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IF JOAQUIN
TRACKS FURTHER N ALONG MID ATLC COAST...BUT A TRACK OFFSHORE WOULD
RESULT IN MOSTLY VFR AND MINIMAL WIND IMPACTS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. FOR
TODAY ANTICIPATE GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS WHICH WILL HELP BUILD SEAS TO 8-
10 FEET. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS
WILL REACH ABOVE 35 KTS AND THUS HAVE ISSUED/EXTENDED GALES FOR ALL
OF THE WATERS. CONTINUED SCA FOR BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY
AS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. ANTICIPATE GALES WARNING TO BE EXTENDED INTO
THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NE GALES WITH GUSTS 35-40
KT. SEAS 10-15 FT OUTER WATERS.
SUN INTO MON...LOW CONFIDENCE. A CONTINUATION OF E/NE WINDS ARE
LIKELY BUT MAGNITUDE OF WINDS AND SEAS AND EXTENT OF RAINFALL WILL
DEPEND ON TRACK OF JOAQUIN WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TODAY...STIFFENING NE FLOW TODAY WILL BE REFLECTED IN AN INCREASING
STORM SURGE ALONG THE MA E COAST...PROBABLY RISING TO BETWEEN 1.0
AND 1.5 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THE POSITIVE TIDAL
DEPARTURE IN ADDITION TO A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL LIKELY SET
THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE MA E COAST
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. SEAS WILL BE
BUILDING JUST OFFSHORE TO PERHAPS 8 TO 10 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON. DUE
TO SOME WAVE ACTION AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH WATER LEVELS...SOME
EROSION IS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERIZED AS
SEVERE.
TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE THE 1.0 TO 1.5 SURGE TO PERSIST ALONG THE MA E
COAST BUT TONIGHT`S ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS NOT AS HIGH AS THE
AFTERNOON TIDE AND ANTICIPATE JUST A FEW POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.
FRI...PERSISTENT NE FLOW MAY CAUSE THE SURGE TO RISE A TAD MORE AND
BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.7 FEET ALONG THE MA E COAST DURING
THE FRI AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THIS ON TOP OF THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE AND WAVES OF 8 TO 12 FEET JUST OFFSHORE MAY CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE REACHES OF THE MA EAST
COAST. HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO AVOID
DOUBLE HEADLINES. DAY CREW WILL NEED TO ISSUE AFTER TODAYS HIGH
TIDE.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES GRADUALLY LOWER
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT A PERSISTENT NE OR E FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
SURGE AROUND OR PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN 1.5 FEET ALONG THE E
COAST. IN ADDITION...A SHIFT IN SURFACE FLOW TO BE MORE FROM THE
E OR EVEN ESE IN ADDITION TO THE ARRIVAL OF SWELLS FROM JOAQUIN
MAY SERVE TO INCREASE THE SURGE ALONG SOME S COAST AREAS ENOUGH
FOR THE RISK OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THERE. HOW
MUCH OF AN IMPACT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
JOAQUIN.
DATE / BOSTON HIGHEST TIDE / TIME
THURSDAY OCTOBER 1 / 12.0 FEET / 2:17 PM
FRIDAY OCTOBER 2 / 11.5 FEET / 3:30 PM
SATURDAY OCTOBER 3 / 11.0 FEET / 4:06 PM
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ251.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1133 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HURRICANE
JOAQUIN WILL BE OFF THE COAST. SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY ON JOAQUIN
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE CIRCULATION BETWEEN THE
HURRICANE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT
IN VERY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST AREA. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST RADAR AT 15Z INDICATING NO RAINFALL IN THE MIDLANDS AT
THE MOMENT. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL CUT POPS
BACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THRU 03Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE INCREASING
POPS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.
THE MODELS DISPLAY SURFACE TROUGHING JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO
THE NORTH. ALOFT...AN H5 CUT-OFF LOW WILL BE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD ALABAMA. THE MODELS INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER FEATURE
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS RAIN OR SHOWERS. THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS DISPLAY SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS WELL. WE LEANED
TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS. THE MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT
REMAINING WEAK SO BELIEVE THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAIN WAS TOO LOW
FOR A FLOOD WATCH TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY
SHOULD OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NEAR STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE DAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH PUSHES COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. USED THE GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER ALABAMA FRIDAY SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA OR GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE COAST MAY SHIFT INLAND AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS INDICATE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE H5
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND ENHANCED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY HIGH AND HAVE A TROPICAL CONNECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JOAQUIN OFF THE COAST. THE NAM AND GFS
DISPLAY VERY HIGH QPF. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A POSSIBILITY OF A
HIGH IMPACT HEAVY RAIN EVENT. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BUT WE
HELD OFF ISSUANCE FOR NOW BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
CLOUDINESS AND THE COLD UPPER LOW SUPPORTED THE COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER
LIFTING THE UPPER LOW NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. BELIEVE AN AVERAGE OF THE GUIDANCE IS THE BEST FORECAST FOR
NOW WITH A DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GUIDANCE INDICATING CIGS BECOMING IFR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
NOT MUCH OF THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A
WEDGE SETS UP. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. T. WINDS LATER TODAY WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1059 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
A small patch of stratocu over east central Illinois, with the
majority of ILX under sunny skies. High pressure remains the
dominant feature of the map, with northeasterly winds finally
mixing up and presenting gusts to 20-25 mph on the last ob.
Expecting more cu to develop as midday approaches. Forecast is
going well and no updates are anticipated at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
A large area of high pressure to our north has brought a rather
chilly start to the new month as temperatures have dipped into the
lower 40s over our northern counties as of 200 am. Further
southeast, some mid and high level clouds have kept temperatures
in the middle 50s. The main concern in the short term will be the
extent of cloud cover and their affect on afternoon temps along
with some gusty winds again this afternoon.
An upper level low situated over extreme southern IL this morning
will drift southeast with additional energy forecast to move into
the base of the trof later today helping to intensify the upper
low. The combination of the large cool Canadian high to our north
and the deepening upper level system to our southeast will help
to produce a rather tight pressure gradient over the Midwest which
will result in some gusty winds again today out of the northeast.
In addition, short term models suggest some increase in clouds this
morning from the east with forecast soundings showing a deeper layer
of moisture than what we saw yesterday, this time from about 2500 to
3500 feet. Both the RAP-13 and HRRR models showing the band of
clouds tracking west from Indiana later this morning, affecting
mainly the eastern half of the forecast area. Think the models may
be overdoing the depth of moisture, especially as it tracks west
into the surface ridge axis so not going to go as pessimistic as
the short term models suggest, but we will see more clouds mix in
with the sun than what we had yesterday.
Forecast soundings also suggest prevailing northeast winds of 12 to
17 kts with gusts around 25 kts at times later this morning thru
most of the afternoon. Most models indicate 850 temps a bit lower
than what we saw yesterday which should yield afternoon temperatures
mostly in the mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
00Z forecast models continue to deepen upper level trof over the
lower TN/OH river valleys southward into a cutoff low over AL and FL
panhandle Thu night into Friday. This trough will influence the
track of major hurricane Joaquin with winds up to 120 mph and near
the eastern Bahamas. HPC official track of hurricane is on a more
northerly track to near the mid Atlantic coast by Sunday night into
Monday. The 00Z ECMWF model continues to have a more eastern track
of hurricane out to sea this weekend. The 00Z GFS is further west
track but has trended a bit further east toward NJ/NYC area by
Monday. GEM model brings hurricane into NC Sat night. So models
still differ greatly on track of hurricane and still awaiting
evolution of deepening upper level trof/cutoff low into the
southeast states. Most models show just light patches of qpf over
eastern IL Fri into Sunday morning though NAM is wetter over IL and
an outlier and not followed. Did not make too many adjustments to
forecast through this weekend, though did add more cloud cover and a
bit cooler highs in 60s and elevated lows/dewpoints slightly from
Friday night through Sunday night. Breezy northeast winds to
continue next few days with gusts in the 20-30 mph range during
daytime period.
Weak high pressure ridge builds into IL Monday providing more
sunshine and lighter winds and a bit milder highs in the lower 70s.
Temps continue to moderate into low to mid 70s Tue and mid to upper
70s Wed with increasing southerly flow on back side of high pressure
ridge moving into the mid Atlantic states. Chances of rain showers
during middle of next week, starting over IL river valley Tue night
and into central IL Wed and southeast IL Wed night/Thu as a cold
front tracks into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
A few more clouds expected over the area today than what we saw
yesterday, but it appears any cigs should be in the VFR category.
A large area of high pressure to our north will continue to bring
a gusty northeast flow to the region today. Forecast soundings
combined with surface and satellite data suggest a band of low
VFR cigs will be possible at times today, especially at KCMI,
KBMI and KDEC as the moisture wraps back to the west and southwest
out of Indiana. As a result, will include a scattered group at
around 3500-4000 feet at or just after 15z most areas. We should
see northeast winds of 12 to 17 kts today with some gusts around
25 kts at times, especially at KBMI, KDEC and KCMI. Look for the
gusts to start to diminish around 00z with a prevailing northeast
wind overnight at 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Huettl
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
617 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
A large area of high pressure to our north has brought a rather
chilly start to the new month as temperatures have dipped into the
lower 40s over our northern counties as of 200 am. Further
southeast, some mid and high level clouds have kept temperatures
in the middle 50s. The main concern in the short term will be the
extent of cloud cover and their affect on afternoon temps along
with some gusty winds again this afternoon.
An upper level low situated over extreme southern IL this morning
will drift southeast with additional energy forecast to move into
the base of the trof later today helping to intensify the upper
low. The combination of the large cool Canadian high to our north
and the deepening upper level system to our southeast will help
to produce a rather tight pressure gradient over the Midwest which
will result in some gusty winds again today out of the northeast.
In addition, short term models suggest some increase in clouds this
morning from the east with forecast soundings showing a deeper layer
of moisture than what we saw yesterday, this time from about 2500 to
3500 feet. Both the RAP-13 and HRRR models showing the band of
clouds tracking west from Indiana later this morning, affecting
mainly the eastern half of the forecast area. Think the models may
be overdoing the depth of moisture, especially as it tracks west
into the surface ridge axis so not going to go as pessimistic as
the short term models suggest, but we will see more clouds mix in
with the sun than what we had yesterday.
Forecast soundings also suggest prevailing northeast winds of 12 to
17 kts with gusts around 25 kts at times later this morning thru
most of the afternoon. Most models indicate 850 temps a bit lower
than what we saw yesterday which should yield afternoon temperatures
mostly in the mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
00Z forecast models continue to deepen upper level trof over the
lower TN/OH river valleys southward into a cutoff low over AL and FL
panhandle Thu night into Friday. This trough will influence the
track of major hurricane Joaquin with winds up to 120 mph and near
the eastern Bahamas. HPC official track of hurricane is on a more
northerly track to near the mid Atlantic coast by Sunday night into
Monday. The 00Z ECMWF model continues to have a more eastern track
of hurricane out to sea this weekend. The 00Z GFS is further west
track but has trended a bit further east toward NJ/NYC area by
Monday. GEM model brings hurricane into NC Sat night. So models
still differ greatly on track of hurricane and still awaiting
evolution of deepening upper level trof/cutoff low into the
southeast states. Most models show just light patches of qpf over
eastern IL Fri into Sunday morning though NAM is wetter over IL and
an outlier and not followed. Did not make too many adjustments to
forecast through this weekend, though did add more cloud cover and a
bit cooler highs in 60s and elevated lows/dewpoints slightly from
Friday night through Sunday night. Breezy northeast winds to
continue next few days with gusts in the 20-30 mph range during
daytime period.
Weak high pressure ridge builds into IL Monday providing more
sunshine and lighter winds and a bit milder highs in the lower 70s.
Temps continue to moderate into low to mid 70s Tue and mid to upper
70s Wed with increasing southerly flow on back side of high pressure
ridge moving into the mid Atlantic states. Chances of rain showers
during middle of next week, starting over IL river valley Tue night
and into central IL Wed and southeast IL Wed night/Thu as a cold
front trackes into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
A few more clouds expected over the area today than what we saw
yesterday, but it appears any cigs should be in the VFR category.
A large area of high pressure to our north will continue to bring
a gusty northeast flow to the region today. Forecast soundings
combined with surface and satellite data suggest a band of low
VFR cigs will be possible at times today, especially at KCMI,
KBMI and KDEC as the moisture wraps back to the west and southwest
out of Indiana. As a result, will include a scattered group at
around 3500-4000 feet at or just after 15z most areas. We should
see northeast winds of 12 to 17 kts today with some gusts around
25 kts at times, especially at KBMI, KDEC and KCMI. Look for the
gusts to start to diminish around 00z with a prevailing northeast
wind overnight at 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Huettl
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
907 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level
ridge of high pressure transitioning eastward across the Central
and Southern Rockies. Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough of
low pressure is pushing ashore into northern and central
California. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure
remains situated across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest
creating a southeasterly upslope flow across western Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Water vapor loop and RAP analysis overnight showed an amplifying
ridge axis in the mid-upper troposphere across the Desert Southwest
and the Southern Rockies. A plume of mid and high level moisture was
rounding the northern periphery of the ridge across the
Intermountain West into the adjacent High Plains. A surface ridge
axis remained a fixture across the Eastern Plains into the Upper
Midwest region with influence continuing across our portion of the
world in southwest Kansas. Light easterly upslope flow will continue
today, along with the cool and fairly moist airmass. We will likely
see a swath of stratus clouds redevelop in the 09-12z time frame
early this morning with stratus continuing through the day across
portions of southwest KS...much like yesterday. We will carry some
20-30 POPs across mainly south-central KS as short term models
indicate some convective QPF in a weak zone of mid level
deformation. Nothing of significance is expected, however. We
lowered the forecast highs into the lower-mid 60s across a good
chunk of the area, using the NAM12, HiRes Nested 4km NAM, and WRF-
ARW blended solution. The extreme southwest should touch the warm
sector with the stratus cover just to their northeast. Highs in the
mid to upper 70s are likely from Elkhart to Johnson to Liberal.
.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Cool and moist weather will continue to be the theme through the
weekend. The best chance for widespread precipitation still appears
to be Friday Night into Saturday as a rather robust shortwave trough
ejects northeast across Colorado. this will provide some warm
frontogenesis in the 800-700mb layer across western Kansas with all
three major global spectral model solutions (GFS, ECMWF, GEM) all
showing a decent QPF signal with event total QPF amounts in the two
to four-tenths range. The rain on Saturday will certainly keep
temperatures quite cool, and daytime highs were lowered down into
the mid 50s for most of the forecast area.
This initial system will exist the region late Saturday, but we will
remain in a southwest flow pattern with the remnant airmass holding
in place (although a bit modified by Sunday with 850mb temperatures
back into the 12-15C territory). Another even more robust upper low
is now shown by the "Big 3" global models entering the West early
next week. Southerly flow will strengthen ahead of this larger scale
storm system across western Kansas, allowing us to finally erode
this cool airmass away. By Tuesday, though, the system is shown by
the "Big 3" consensus to show signs of weakening and become
positively tilted -- not favorable for a decent precipitation event.
That being said, by mid next week, the ECMWF shows another jet
streak coming in off the Pacific helping re-energize the upper low
as it approaches the High Plains, leading to a nice precipitation
event. At +168hr though, this solution must be taken with a grain
of salt. Nevertheless, an active southern branch of the polar jet
appears to be setting up across our latitude, so there`s at
least some hope for additional precipitation next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
MVFR conditions are expected early this morning with overcast
conditions AOA030 and lowered visibilities at the surface. Winds
will generally be from the southeast around 08 knots this morning
increasing to around 12 knots this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 51 62 46 / 10 20 40 60
GCK 66 51 59 45 / 10 30 40 50
EHA 80 53 59 48 / 10 10 40 40
LBL 71 53 58 47 / 10 20 40 60
HYS 65 50 65 46 / 20 10 40 50
P28 65 51 66 49 / 30 10 30 50
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Water vapor loop and RAP analysis overnight showed an amplifying
ridge axis in the mid-upper troposphere across the Desert Southwest
and the Southern Rockies. A plume of mid and high level moisture was
rounding the northern periphery of the ridge across the
Intermountain West into the adjacent High Plains. A surface ridge
axis remained a fixture across the Eastern Plains into the Upper
Midwest region with influence continuing across our portion of the
world in southwest Kansas. Light easterly upslope flow will continue
today, along with the cool and fairly moist airmass. We will likely
see a swath of stratus clouds redevelop in the 09-12z time frame
early this morning with stratus continuing through the day across
portions of southwest KS...much like yesterday. We will carry some
20-30 POPs across mainly south-central KS as short term models
indicate some convective QPF in a weak zone of mid level
deformation. Nothing of significance is expected, however. We
lowered the forecast highs into the lower-mid 60s across a good
chunk of the area, using the NAM12, HiRes Nested 4km NAM, and WRF-
ARW blended solution. The extreme southwest should touch the warm
sector with the stratus cover just to their northeast. Highs in the
mid to upper 70s are likely from Elkhart to Johnson to Liberal.
.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Cool and moist weather will continue to be the theme through the
weekend. The best chance for widespread precipitation still appears
to be Friday Night into Saturday as a rather robust shortwave trough
ejects northeast across Colorado. this will provide some warm
frontogenesis in the 800-700mb layer across western Kansas with all
three major global spectral model solutions (GFS, ECMWF, GEM) all
showing a decent QPF signal with event total QPF amounts in the two
to four-tenths range. The rain on Saturday will certainly keep
temperatures quite cool, and daytime highs were lowered down into
the mid 50s for most of the forecast area.
This initial system will exist the region late Saturday, but we will
remain in a southwest flow pattern with the remnant airmass holding
in place (although a bit modified by Sunday with 850mb temperatures
back into the 12-15C territory). Another even more robust upper low
is now shown by the "Big 3" global models entering the West early
next week. Southerly flow will strengthen ahead of this larger scale
storm system across western Kansas, allowing us to finally erode
this cool airmass away. By Tuesday, though, the system is shown by
the "Big 3" consensus to show signs of weakening and become
positively tilted -- not favorable for a decent precipitation event.
That being said, by mid next week, the ECMWF shows another jet
streak coming in off the Pacific helping re-energize the upper low
as it approaches the High Plains, leading to a nice precipitation
event. At +168hr though, this solution must be taken with a grain
of salt. Nevertheless, an active southern branch of the polar jet
appears to be setting up across our latitude, so there`s at
least some hope for additional precipitation next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
MVFR conditions are expected early this morning with overcast
conditions AOA030 and lowered visibilities at the surface. Winds
will generally be from the southeast around 08 knots this morning
increasing to around 12 knots this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 51 62 46 / 10 20 40 60
GCK 66 51 59 45 / 10 30 40 50
EHA 80 53 59 48 / 10 10 40 40
LBL 71 53 58 47 / 10 20 40 60
HYS 65 50 65 46 / 20 10 40 50
P28 65 51 66 49 / 30 10 30 50
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
720 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
...COLD WITH FROST INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT BUT
STAYING WARMER ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER UPR LAKES PERSISTS BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROPPED ACROSS MANTIOBA ON WEDNESDAY
HAS LED TO CLUSTER OF SHRA AND TSRA OVER ND THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER MN IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISIPPATE WHILE MOVING TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
HAS BECOME CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY AT 1037MB/30.6 INCHES. RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS TO SOUTHWEST OVER LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN...BUT WEAK
GRADIENT IS STILL PRESENT...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE SFC. RESULT IS
THAT SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST ARE NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE
NIGHT/WED MORNING. LOWEST TEMP AS OF 3 AM EDT IS 27 DEGREES AT THE
FIRE WX RAWS SITES ON THE BARAGA PLAINS AND OVER NORTHERN LUCE
COUNTY. LOWEST TEMP AT HOME WEATHER SITE IS 29 NEAR PEAVY FALLS DAM
IN EASTERN IRON COUNTY...WHILE LOWEST TEMP AT AWOS/ASOS
SITES IS 30 DEGREES AT LAND O LAKES WI.
EAST FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND SOME MOISTURE AROUND 900MB/3KFT
AGL IS RESULTING IN SC/CU CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND MORE SO OVER DOOR PENINSULA JUST TO EAST OF MENOMINEE. RAP AND
GFS WERE NOT AS OVERDONE WITH RH AS NAM/GEM-REGIONAL. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE AS THEY HAVE LAST COUPLE DAYS...TO A SCT-BKN CU DECK IN
THE MORNING AND THEN TO MIX OUT IN THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR IS MIXED
INTO THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. WARMING AT H9 SHOULD ALSO WORK AGAINST
AFTN CLOUD COVER. H85 TEMPS ARE WARMER BY 1-2C THAN WED...BUT LOW-
LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER. THESE OFFSET AND SHOULD
RESULT IN MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WARMEST INTERIOR WEST.
LOWS FOR TONIGHT AND RESULTING FROST POTENTIAL IS TRICKY. GRADIENT
JUST ABOVE SFC TIGHTENS EVEN MORE...AS SEEN IN H95-H925 LAYER. BUT
PWATS ARE MUCH LOWER THAN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST SO THERE COULD
BE GREATER RADIATIONAL COOLING. DID NOT ALTER GOING FORECAST MINS
TOO MUCH INLAND...BUT DID RAISE TEMPS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
INSTEAD OF ISSUING SEPARATE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LIKE LAST TWO
MORNINGS...MENTIONED FROST POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IN GOING STATEMENT
FOR THIS MORNINGS FROST/FREEZE AS EXPECT FROST TONIGHT TO BE MORE
PATCHY. DAYSHIFT CAN ISSUE APPROPRIATE HEADLINE LATER TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL BE TEMPS AS DRY
HI PRES STRETCHING FM SE CANADA INTO THE UPR LKS WL REMAIN DOMINANT.
NEXT BEST SHOT AT PCPN WL BE NEXT TUE/WED AS RDG BREAKS DOWN AND A
MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.
FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS HI AMPLITUDE UPR RDG BUILDS FM THE PLAINS
TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND THEN INTO SE CANADA...SFC HI PRES RDG
STRETCHING FM NEAR JAMES BAY INTO THE UPR LKS WL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY
AND STRENGTHEN. THE DRY AIRMASS UNDER THIS RDG...WITH PWAT IN THE
0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE...WL RESULT IN CONTINUED PCPN FREE WX. ON
FRI...H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK ARND 4C BUT THEN ONLY ARND 2C ON
SAT. WITH THE SOMEWHAT COOLER H85 TEMPS...THERE SHOULD BE MORE
DIURNAL CU ON SAT. BEGINNING ON FRI NGT...MODELS FCST WEAK SHRTWV/
MORE HI LVL MSTR AND HI CLDS WL SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE SE FLOW
ALF ARND UPR RDG CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY. THESE CLDS AND A STEADY E
WIND...WITH H925 WINDS UP TO 15-25 KTS...WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
DROP ON FRI/SAT NGTS AND FROST POTENTIAL. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AN AREA THAT
WL BE MORE SHELTERED FM THE E FLOW. HI TEMPS ON FRI WL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60 BUT THEN PROBABLY ONLY THE MID 50S ON SAT
WITH THE LOWER H85 TEMPS/MORE HI CLDS AND SOME DIURNAL CU.
SUN/MON...ALTHOUGH THE UPR RDG OVER SE CANADA IS FCST TO WEAKEN
DURING THIS TIME AND A ALLOW A TRANSITION TO A MORE WSW FLOW ALF
ALONG THE CNDN BORDER...A SFC HI PRES RDG...ALBEIT A WEAKENING
ONE...IS FCST TO LINGER FM SE CANADA INTO THE UPR LKS. RECENT
ECMWF RUNS HAVE GENERATED SOME PCPN OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF
UPR MI WITH MORE MSTR ROTATING NNWD INTO THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE MOST
OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN HI PRES RDG/DEEP DRY AIR LINGERING FARTHER FM
CLOSED LO OVER THE SE CONUS...FAVOR A DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD EVEN
IF THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HI CLD IS ARND...
SUN NGT COULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER THE SFC RDG AXIS/LIGHT WINDS.
TUE/WED...A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE MORE ZONAL UPR FLOW OVER SRN
CANADA IS FCST TO MOVE E WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/MORE MSTR IN A
WEAKER SRN BRANCH WSW FLOW IN THE CONUS ARE FCST TO APRCH FM THE SW.
WHILE THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT MORE CLDS AND SHOWER
CHCS TO RETURN AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
WARMER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT NGT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCU OFF THE LAKE THIS MORNING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
KSAW/KCMX...CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE ABOVE 3000FT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE LAKE SUPERIOR THRU SAT AS HIGH PRES IN
SE CANADA RIDGES BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES VCNTY. DURING THIS TIME
WINDS WILL VARY BTWN THE 10-20 KT AND 15-25 KT RANGE. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN...RESULTING IN WINDS
UNDER 20 KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001-
003-005>007-012>014-085.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
004-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
627 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Even with scattered showers and thunderstorms across northeast Oklahoma
this morning, VFR conditions are prevailing. Fog has been and intermittent
problem at KFYV overnight. Have gone with some MVFR fog there for a few hours
this morning. Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the valid period at all area TAF sites.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across
parts of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma...in zone of
isentropic lift noted along 305K surface. HRRR appears to have a
reasonable handle on this...and will carry some low PoPs through
the morning hours generally west of Highway 75. Otherwise expect
a cool start to October...with high temperatures running a few
degrees below seasonal norms.
Surface ridging will lock in the dry low-level airmass across the
region through the weekend and into early next week...with
several days of seasonally cool weather in store. 00Z model runs
continue to keep highest mean RH to our west...and the forecast
will remain dry.
The mid-level ridge will eventually erode next week as pieces of
shortwave energy eject east out the mean trof position. Southerly
flow and improving moisture will kick in by Tuesday...with rain
chances increasing toward mid-week.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1149 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THE LOCATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE FRONT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH WEAK IMPULSES RIPPLING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE
SERN US.
THE FIRST AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS SPREADING NNE ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF
NC/VA SLIDES NORTHWARD IN THE DEEPENING UPPER FLOW EAST OF THE
LOW.
WE WILL PRETTY MUCH STAY STUCK IN THIS PATTERN WITH CLOUDS AND
COOL WEATHER DOMINATING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER
SERN AREAS WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WILL
BE OVER THE NW.
A BRISK NORTH TO NE FLOW OF 10-15 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL
CONTINUE...MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER THAN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WE
WILL REACH TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
GEFS MAINTAINS A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT OF PWAT FROM SE-NW ACROSS
PENN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PLUS 1 SIGMA PWATS BRUSHING OUR FAR
SE ZONES AND MINUS 1 PWATS NEAR KBFD.
AS THE EAST-NORTHEAST WIND VEERS AROUND A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST
FRIDAY...THEN SE SATURDAY AND INCREASES TO -3 TO -4 SIGMA...WE/LL
SEE THICK CLOUD COVER CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHC
FOR RAIN.
STRONGEST SERLY FLOW AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD IMPACT THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT SCENT PENN WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN...ALONG WITH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE NEXT WEATHER ISSUE SURROUNDS THE TRACK AND EVENTUAL IMPACT OF
HURRICANE JOAQUIN. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW
AND MASSIVE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL QUEBEC CANADA
WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. THE HRRR AND NCEP
SREF SHOWS THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THE AFTERNOON. SO WE DEPICTED RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWED THIS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOCUSED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM NEAR 40F...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENN. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATION
AND ORIENTATION OF THE PWATS...THE NW EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL PENN
ON FRIDAY.
A HIGHER...LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WILL EXIST SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR
LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: WE NUDGED TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND
MODIFIED THE QPF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL RAIN EVENT SETTING
UP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PA TO START ON FRIDAY.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND ALSO
ADDED CHC OF RAIN INTO MONDAY.
ALSO LOWER TEMPS SOME AND UP WINDS.
MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT BACKING TO THE WEST BY LATE SAT.
THIS WOULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD MOVE WEST OF OUR AREA BY LATE SAT OR
EARLY SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING AT A STRONG EAST TO SE FLOW OF
AIR OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...HEAVY
RAIN ETC.
ALSO STILL SOME TIME TO DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTION
WITH WITH THE TROPICS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STALLED OUT FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL COAST WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO BE LIFTED OVER IT AND PULLED NWWD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWWD TD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
EVEN IF SOON TO BE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES A TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATL REGION PER THE EC AND LATEST TPC GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
AND BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW /WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS -4 TO -5
SIGMA EASTERLY LLVL WIND AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR/ WILL
TRANSPORT PULSE OF RAIN INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...UP AND OVER THE
VERY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS PENN. TEMPS SATURDAY...MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE
THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD EDGE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 15 DEG
IN SOME AREAS.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE MDT AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE NRN EDGE OF A 2 INCH/24 HOUR AREA OF RAIN SKIRTING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS A PRE TYPE EVENT...WITH MORE DIRECT EFFECTS /IF
ANY/ FROM JOAQUIN COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR OVER MOST
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION AS LOWER CEILINGS
WILL RE-DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT.
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FURTHER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS STEADIER RAIN AND LOWER CIGS PUSH NWD. FRI INTO SAT
WILL LIKELY SEE CONDS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
736 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THESE LOCATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW AND A POTENTIAL...PROLONGED WET PERIOD. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO WEEKEND AS THE DEEPENING UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DRAWS MOISTURE INLAND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HURRICANE JOAQUIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1036 MB SFC HIGH NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA WILL STRENGTHEN TO OVER
1040 MB AS IT BUILDS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST HEADED
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT RANGE AND HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF LIGHT
RAIN BEGINNING TO EXPAND TO THE NORTHWEST...INTO OUR LOWER SUSQ
REGION AND PERHAPS THE SCENT MTN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...A BRISK NORTH TO NE FLOW OF 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY OVC SKIES CREATED FROM MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUDS.
05Z-07Z HRRR SHOWS SEVERAL PULSES OF WEAKENING SHOWERS BEING SENT
TO THE NW AND INTO OUR CENTRAL AND SE ZONES...BUT EACH RUN APPEARS
TO BE DRIER FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS EARLY TODAY WILL START OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY.
THE MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH SHOULD PEAK IN THE
1044-1046MB RANGE THIS WEEKEND...AND REACH A +2 TO +3 SIGMA
PRESSURE ANOMALY BY THIS EVENING. THE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLOUDY...BUT
MOSTLY RAIN FREE DAY FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES AS WELL.
CLOUDS AND THE NW EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD NEAR THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE NWWD TODAY. THE HRRR...NAM...AND SREF ALL
CLEARLY SHOW LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO YORK AND
LANCASTER COUNTIES AND WORKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. QUICKLY BROUGHT A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
POPS COMING UP FURTHER DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN WILL
FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NRN AND
WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
GEFS MAINTAINS A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT OF PWAT FROM SE-NW ACROSS
PENN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH PLUS 1 SIGMA PWATS BRUSHING OUR FAR
SE ZONES AND MINUS 1 PWATS NEAR KBFD.
AS THE EAST-NORTHEAST WIND VEERS AROUND A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST
FRIDAY...THEN SE SATURDAY AND INCREASES TO -3 TO -4 SIGMA...WE/LL
SEE THICK CLOUD COVER CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE CHC
FOR RAIN.
STRONGEST SERLY FLOW AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT COULD IMPACT THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT SCENT PENN WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF PENN...ALONG WITH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE NEXT WEATHER ISSUE SURROUNDS THE TRACK AND EVENTUAL IMPACT OF
HURRICANE JOAQUIN. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN LOW
AND MASSIVE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL QUEBEC CANADA
WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. THE HRRR AND NCEP
SREF SHOWS THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THE AFTERNOON. SO WE DEPICTED RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOWED THIS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES FOCUSED IN
THE SOUTHEAST.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM NEAR 40F...TO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENN. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATION
AND ORIENTATION OF THE PWATS...THE NW EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD
WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING INTERSTATE 80 IN CENTRAL PENN
ON FRIDAY.
A HIGHER...LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN WILL EXIST SE OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR
LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE: WE NUDGED TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND
MODIFIED THE QPF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A COOL RAIN EVENT SETTING
UP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PA TO START ON FRIDAY.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS UP SOME FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND ALSO
ADDED CHC OF RAIN INTO MONDAY.
ALSO LOWER TEMPS SOME AND UP WINDS.
MODELS SHOW COLD FRONT BACKING TO THE WEST BY LATE SAT.
THIS WOULD BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD MOVE WEST OF OUR AREA BY LATE SAT OR
EARLY SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING AT A STRONG EAST TO SE FLOW OF
AIR OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...HEAVY
RAIN ETC.
ALSO STILL SOME TIME TO DETERMINE ANY POTENTIAL INTERACTION
WITH WITH THE TROPICS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
STALLED OUT FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATL COAST WILL SEE
MOISTURE BEGIN TO BE LIFTED OVER IT AND PULLED NWWD AS AN UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS SE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. RAIN SHOULD
GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWWD TD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
EVEN IF SOON TO BE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TAKES A TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATL REGION PER THE EC AND LATEST TPC GUIDANCE...THE UPPER LOW
AND BACKING MID AND UPPER FLOW /WITH A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS -4 TO -5
SIGMA EASTERLY LLVL WIND AND AXIS OF HIGHER PWAT AIR/ WILL
TRANSPORT PULSE OF RAIN INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...UP AND OVER THE
VERY CHILLY AIRMASS ACROSS PENN. TEMPS SATURDAY...MAY STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS...WHILE
THE SUSQ VALLEY COULD EDGE INTO THE UPPER 50S. THESE MAX TEMPS
WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 15 DEG
IN SOME AREAS.
RIGHT NOW WE HAVE MDT AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN
FCST HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE NRN EDGE OF A 2 INCH/24 HOUR AREA OF RAIN SKIRTING OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS IS A PRE TYPE EVENT...WITH MORE DIRECT EFFECTS /IF
ANY/ FROM JOAQUIN COMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS AT 12Z SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY
THIS AFTN FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA...AS SFC HIGH PRES ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST /KLNS AND KMDT/...WHERE -RA COULD RETURN NWD ASSOC
WITH QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST.
CONDS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FURTHER LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST /KLNS AND KMDT/...AS STEADIER RAIN AND LOWER CIGS PUSH
NWD. FRI INTO SAT WILL LIKELY SEE CONDS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...EVANEGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
916 AM MST THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
GIVES WAY TO A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL AFFECT THE
WESTERN STATES. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE DRY AND WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT APPROACHES BEFORE
IT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS
ADDITIONAL COOLING AND RAIN CHANCES...MAINLY TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...LATER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO REMAIN BELOW
100 FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WARM VEERING PROFILE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ACROSS SONORA. 12Z TWC SOUNDING RECORDED AN 850
MB TEMPERATURE OF 26.2C WHICH IS NEAR THE RECORD FOR THE DAY. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE IN FORM OF NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES. FORECAST FOR PHOENIX IS 105 DEGREES...WHICH IS ONLY 2
DEGREES BELOW THE DAILY RECORD OF 107. THE DAILY RECORD IS OUT OF
REACH AT YUMA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED
THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BUT A BIT COOLER FURTHER WEST. THE COOLING WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES IT WILL DISPLACE THE RIDGE. IN THE
PROCESS THERE WILL BE AN UPSWING IN THE WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...AND
WELCOME COOLING FRIDAY. IN FACT...HIGHS ON THE LOWER DESERTS FRIDAY
WILL FINALLY DIP BELOW 100. ANTICIPATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRY FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WITH THE BRUNT OF IT PASSING TO THE NORTH.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECTS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINNING SUNDAY AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW BECOMES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS PART OF AN
OMEGA PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
FOR SEVERAL DAYS MODELS HAVE HAD WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS FROM ONE
ANOTHER AND QUITE A BIT OF RUN TO RUN VARIATION ALONG WITH A LOT OF
SPREAD AMONGST THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. THE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF
WHICH HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT. WITH THE LATEST 00Z RUN THE GFS
HAS PRETTY MUCH COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. THE GEFS MEAN
SUPPORTS IT AND THERE IS A LOT LESS SPREAD AMONGST THE INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS. THE GEM HAD BEEN CLOSER FOR SOME TIME ALREADY. THUS
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS INCREASED. THE
POSITIONING OF THE LOW ALONG WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO ENABLES ENABLES NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM MARTY. THE
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE THOUGH THEY DO AGREE ON
KEEPING DRY AIR ABOVE ABOUT 600 MB WITH MOISTURE EVEN MORE SHALLOW
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND MEAGER CAPE BOTH ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT NOTABLE QPF OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS IS APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO DYNAMICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH. DIV-Q FIELDS LOOK MODEST OVER OUR AREA
AND THE MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET. THE
ECMWF IS MORE GENEROUS WITH THE QPF AND THAT MAY BE DUE TO HOW IT
ALSO FORECASTS A COUPLET OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. CONVECTION IS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL
BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF COOLING IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER BUT RATHER THE COOLING ALOFT IS HIGHER UP. THAT IS BECAUSE THE
LOW DOES NOT CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BUT MOVES EASTWARD MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY PER COORDINATION AND IN ACKNOWLEDGEMENT OF MOS TRENDS BUT
PERSISTENT DRY SLOT PATTERN KEEPS THE POPS FROM BEING HIGH. ONLY
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING OUT ALTOGETHER
WEDNESDAY. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD WITH ONLY WEAK
LINGERING TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SLOW HEIGHT RISES. AS FOR
TEMPS...BC GRIDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE COOL ADVECTION SO
NUDGED THE HIGHS DOWNWARD A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ALSO PUT IN
A SLOWER WARMUP. BREEZINESS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH VARYING
AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS...WILL KEEP MINS A BIT WARMER THAN WOULD EXPECT
GIVEN THE COOLER HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. A FEW WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PRIMARILY AT KPHX.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT A WESTERLY SFC WIND COMPONENT WILL PERSIST
LONGER INTO TONIGHT THAN HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
A PERIOD OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR SE CALIFORNIA. WESTERLY GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KIPL AFTER SUNSET...WITH SPEEDS
SOMEWHAT LESS AT KBLH AND DIRECTION MAINTAINING A MORE SWLY
COMPONENT. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF
WEAKENING SFC WINDS AND DIRECTIONAL SHIFTS LATE TONIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...
DATE PHOENIX YUMA
---- ------- ----
OCT 1 107 IN 1980 110 IN 1980
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN EXITING DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
PLACE SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM LEADS TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS...WINDY AT RIDGETOPS...SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND PRIMARILY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA...SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
COOLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES SATURDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE ELEVATED AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS THROUGH MID 20S FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE
DESERTS...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
OF NOTE...THIS FORECAST HAS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH
IT DUE TO THE WIDE VARIETY OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BEING PRESENTED BY
THE COMPUTER MODELS. HOWEVER...NONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WOULD RESULT
IN EXTREME CONDITIONS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...HIRSCH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...MO
CLIMATE...MO
FIRE WEATHER...CB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
129 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT BRINGING MORE RAIN LATE TODAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST. IN
ADDITION...STRONG COASTAL NORTHEAST WINDS AND MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO SATURDAY. MORE RAIN AND WIND IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE
JOAQUIN...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
NNE FLOW CONTINUES TO PULL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG NRN NEW
ENGLAND HIGH PRES INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS KEEPING MUCH OF
THE REGION DRY AND EVEN ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERALL
SKY COVER. OTHERWISE...INITIAL BAND OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL WAVE CURRENTLY DELIVERING LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO ACK.
THIS INITIAL BAND WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDELY SCT -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE A REINFORCING WAVE DEVELOPS BY THE EVENING HOURS.
THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARD LATEST HRRR WHICH SHOWS THIS
HIGH-LOW-HIGH TREND IN POPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MOST INLAND LOCALES REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
AND EVENING HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND APPEARS TO BE IN A SQUEEZE PLAY FOR TODAY. A
STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING IN
DRY AIR AS WELL AS BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER COULD SEE
SHOWERY WEATHER ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THANKS TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT POOLING AGAINST STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT. BIGGEST
QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH PRECIP COULD GET AS BUILDING DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE MAY CREATE A SHARP QPF CUTOFF. TRENDED TOWARDS HI-
RES GUIDANCE AND NAM/GFS FOR TODAY IN PRECIP CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD PUSHING STALLED FRONT BACK TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL TIGHTEN
THE NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT AS SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH
CONTINUES TO BUILD. LOCATIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE COULD SEE
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS IS BELOW WIND ADV...WITH THE
FULLY LEAVED TREES CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW TREES/BRANCHES COMING DOWN.
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY THE TIMING
AND AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS UNCERTAIN. MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON HEAVY PRECIP CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THANKS TO THE DRY AIR
TO THE NORTH. RIGHT NOW HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
CAPE/ISLANDS WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP.
COLD AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. DO NOT BELIEVE
FROST HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AS BL WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH
TO STOP FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TOMORROW...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. BERMUDA HIGH WILL
STRENGTHEN PUSHING THE STALLED FRONT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
RIGHT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CAPE/ISLANDS AND SOUTH COAST COULD SEE
CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAIN...LESS AS YOU MOVE FARTHER NORTH. HAVE A
LOW CONFIDENCE IF LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE PIKE WILL SEE PRECIP AS DRY
AIR WILL CREATE A TIGHT QPF GRADIENT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR PRECIP TIMING AND QPF AMOUNTS.
FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH
WILL CREATE A SIMILAR COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE 60F WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COOLEST HIGH RECORDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* RAIN LINGERING INTO FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY S COAST
* STRONG COASTAL NE WINDS WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE
DURING THE HIGH TIDES THROUGH SAT
* POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL
DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN
OVERVIEW...
THE TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THIS WILL DICTATE THE EXTENT OF ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WIND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACTLY HOW JOAQUIN INTERACTS WITH SE US UPPER LOW AND DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING RIDGE AND THUS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE FORECAST
TRACK AMONG GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM
LANDFALL IN SC TO NYC TO COMPLETELY OUT TO SEA. SIGNIFICANT NWD
SHIFT IN GFS WITH TRACK NEAR NYC ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT HAVE SUPPORT
OF GEFS MEMBERS. UKMET ALSO SAW A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND IS NOW
KEEPING JOAQUIN OFFSHORE WHILE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL
RUNS WITH OFFSHORE TRACK. THIS MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CLUSTERING OF THE TROPICAL MODELS AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO SUGGEST JOAQUIN MAY EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
MID ATLC COAST WITH POSSIBLE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NC COAST AND
DELMARVA PENINSULA LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST. WE FOLLOWED NHC FORECAST WHICH WOULD KEEP THE MAIN
IMPACT SOUTH OF NEW ENG BUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE
SOMETIME LATE SUN INTO MON. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE FURTHER E SOLUTIONS WITH NO IMPACT SO WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION VERY CLOSELY.
DAILIES...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THE S COAST ALONG WITH GOOD 850 MB
FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS RAIN WILL LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE S COAST. UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR N RAIN WILL GET AS
THERE IS A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE N. GFS
APPEARS TOO FAR N WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN AND SO WE KEPT HIGHEST
POPS NEAR THE S COAST WITH DECREASING POPS TO THE N. IT IS POSSIBLE
IT STAYS DRY N OF THE MASS PIKE. MOISTURE AND FORCING DECREASE
DURING SAT SO JUST SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED. NE LOW LEVEL
JET 30-40 KT SETS UP ACROSS SNE AND WITH DECENT MIXING MUCH OF THIS
WIND WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN NEAR THE COAST WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT AND
POTENTIAL FOR 40 KT OVER THE ISLANDS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
FORECAST DEPENDS ON TRACK OF JOAQUIN. LOTS OF SPREAD MAKES FOR A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND COASTAL WIND.
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH TRACK FURTHER N ACROSS MID ATLC BUT
OFFSHORE SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN MINIMAL IMPACT. FOLLOWING NHC
FORECAST AND HAVE CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH STRONGER WINDS LIKELY
REMAINING TO THE S.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LIKELY AS JOAQUIN MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
WINDS...WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECT
SUSTAINED NE WINDS 15-25 KT INLAND...20-30 KT CLOSER TO THE
COAST...AND 30+ KT AT TIMES CAPE/ISLANDS. GUSTS ABOUT 10 KT
HIGHER. PEAK SUSTAINED/GUSTS LATE DAY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY MVFR CIGS E OF A LINE FROM IJD-ORH-BVY...VFR TO THE W OF
THIS LINE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAINLY CAPE/ISLANDS
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL E OF THIS LINE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT QUITE AS HEAVY AS WED.
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TREND CONTINUES...MVFR E OF THE IJD- BED-BVY LINE WITH VFR W.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH SOME IFR MIXED IN BY EVENING
HOWEVER. COULD EXPAND TO INCLUDE CT VALLEY TERMINALS. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE TOMORROW...TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY SAT
MORNING.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE S
COAST WITH MOSTLY VFR NORTH OF THE PIKE. PERIODS OF RAIN FRI
NIGHT...MAINLY S COAST. NE GUSTS TO 25-35 KT...STRONGEST ACROSS SE
NEW ENG COAST.
SUN INTO MON...LOW CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND ON TRACK OF
JOAQUIN. POTENTIAL FOR IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS IF JOAQUIN
TRACKS FURTHER N ALONG MID ATLC COAST...BUT A TRACK OFFSHORE WOULD
RESULT IN MOSTLY VFR AND MINIMAL WIND IMPACTS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. FOR
TODAY ANTICIPATE GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS WHICH WILL HELP BUILD SEAS TO 8-
10 FEET. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTS
WILL REACH ABOVE 35 KTS AND THUS HAVE ISSUED/EXTENDED GALES FOR ALL
OF THE WATERS. CONTINUED SCA FOR BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY
AS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. ANTICIPATE GALES WARNING TO BE EXTENDED INTO
THE WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NE GALES WITH GUSTS 35-40
KT. SEAS 10-15 FT OUTER WATERS.
SUN INTO MON...LOW CONFIDENCE. A CONTINUATION OF E/NE WINDS ARE
LIKELY BUT MAGNITUDE OF WINDS AND SEAS AND EXTENT OF RAINFALL WILL
DEPEND ON TRACK OF JOAQUIN WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TODAY...STIFFENING NE FLOW TODAY WILL BE REFLECTED IN AN INCREASING
STORM SURGE ALONG THE MA E COAST...PROBABLY RISING TO BETWEEN 1.0
AND 1.5 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THE POSITIVE TIDAL
DEPARTURE IN ADDITION TO A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL LIKELY SET
THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE MA E COAST
WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. SEAS WILL BE
BUILDING JUST OFFSHORE TO PERHAPS 8 TO 10 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON. DUE
TO SOME WAVE ACTION AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH WATER LEVELS...SOME
EROSION IS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERIZED AS
SEVERE.
TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE THE 1.0 TO 1.5 SURGE TO PERSIST ALONG THE MA E
COAST BUT TONIGHT`S ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS NOT AS HIGH AS THE
AFTERNOON TIDE AND ANTICIPATE JUST A FEW POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.
FRI...PERSISTENT NE FLOW MAY CAUSE THE SURGE TO RISE A TAD MORE AND
BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.7 FEET ALONG THE MA E COAST DURING
THE FRI AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE. THIS ON TOP OF THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE AND WAVES OF 8 TO 12 FEET JUST OFFSHORE MAY CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG VULNERABLE REACHES OF THE MA EAST
COAST. HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY TO AVOID
DOUBLE HEADLINES. DAY CREW WILL NEED TO ISSUE AFTER TODAYS HIGH
TIDE.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK...THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES GRADUALLY LOWER
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT A PERSISTENT NE OR E FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
SURGE AROUND OR PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN 1.5 FEET ALONG THE E
COAST. IN ADDITION...A SHIFT IN SURFACE FLOW TO BE MORE FROM THE
E OR EVEN ESE IN ADDITION TO THE ARRIVAL OF SWELLS FROM JOAQUIN
MAY SERVE TO INCREASE THE SURGE ALONG SOME S COAST AREAS ENOUGH
FOR THE RISK OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THERE. HOW
MUCH OF AN IMPACT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
JOAQUIN.
DATE / BOSTON HIGHEST TIDE / TIME
THURSDAY OCTOBER 1 / 12.0 FEET / 2:17 PM
FRIDAY OCTOBER 2 / 11.5 FEET / 3:30 PM
SATURDAY OCTOBER 3 / 11.0 FEET / 4:06 PM
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MAZ007-015-016-019-022-024.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ231>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ250-254.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...DOODY/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1243 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
A small patch of stratocu over east central Illinois, with the
majority of ILX under sunny skies. High pressure remains the
dominant feature of the map, with northeasterly winds finally
mixing up and presenting gusts to 20-25 mph on the last ob.
Expecting more cu to develop as midday approaches. Forecast is
going well and no updates are anticipated at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
A large area of high pressure to our north has brought a rather
chilly start to the new month as temperatures have dipped into the
lower 40s over our northern counties as of 200 am. Further
southeast, some mid and high level clouds have kept temperatures
in the middle 50s. The main concern in the short term will be the
extent of cloud cover and their affect on afternoon temps along
with some gusty winds again this afternoon.
An upper level low situated over extreme southern IL this morning
will drift southeast with additional energy forecast to move into
the base of the trof later today helping to intensify the upper
low. The combination of the large cool Canadian high to our north
and the deepening upper level system to our southeast will help
to produce a rather tight pressure gradient over the Midwest which
will result in some gusty winds again today out of the northeast.
In addition, short term models suggest some increase in clouds this
morning from the east with forecast soundings showing a deeper layer
of moisture than what we saw yesterday, this time from about 2500 to
3500 feet. Both the RAP-13 and HRRR models showing the band of
clouds tracking west from Indiana later this morning, affecting
mainly the eastern half of the forecast area. Think the models may
be overdoing the depth of moisture, especially as it tracks west
into the surface ridge axis so not going to go as pessimistic as
the short term models suggest, but we will see more clouds mix in
with the sun than what we had yesterday.
Forecast soundings also suggest prevailing northeast winds of 12 to
17 kts with gusts around 25 kts at times later this morning thru
most of the afternoon. Most models indicate 850 temps a bit lower
than what we saw yesterday which should yield afternoon temperatures
mostly in the mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
00Z forecast models continue to deepen upper level trof over the
lower TN/OH river valleys southward into a cutoff low over AL and FL
panhandle Thu night into Friday. This trough will influence the
track of major hurricane Joaquin with winds up to 120 mph and near
the eastern Bahamas. HPC official track of hurricane is on a more
northerly track to near the mid Atlantic coast by Sunday night into
Monday. The 00Z ECMWF model continues to have a more eastern track
of hurricane out to sea this weekend. The 00Z GFS is further west
track but has trended a bit further east toward NJ/NYC area by
Monday. GEM model brings hurricane into NC Sat night. So models
still differ greatly on track of hurricane and still awaiting
evolution of deepening upper level trof/cutoff low into the
southeast states. Most models show just light patches of qpf over
eastern IL Fri into Sunday morning though NAM is wetter over IL and
an outlier and not followed. Did not make too many adjustments to
forecast through this weekend, though did add more cloud cover and a
bit cooler highs in 60s and elevated lows/dewpoints slightly from
Friday night through Sunday night. Breezy northeast winds to
continue next few days with gusts in the 20-30 mph range during
daytime period.
Weak high pressure ridge builds into IL Monday providing more
sunshine and lighter winds and a bit milder highs in the lower 70s.
Temps continue to moderate into low to mid 70s Tue and mid to upper
70s Wed with increasing southerly flow on back side of high pressure
ridge moving into the mid Atlantic states. Chances of rain showers
during middle of next week, starting over IL river valley Tue night
and into central IL Wed and southeast IL Wed night/Thu as a cold
front tracks into the region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Cirrus field at around 4 kft this afternoon, clearing out near
sunset with loss of heat of day. Northeasterly winds will continue
through the day and somewhat gusty as winds from the midlevels mix
down. Gusts will ease with sunset, but remain in the 12-15kt range
overnight out of the northeast. VFR throughout.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Huettl
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1202 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level
ridge of high pressure transitioning eastward across the Central
and Southern Rockies. Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough of
low pressure is pushing ashore into northern and central
California. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure
remains situated across the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest
creating a southeasterly upslope flow across western Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Water vapor loop and RAP analysis overnight showed an amplifying
ridge axis in the mid-upper troposphere across the Desert Southwest
and the Southern Rockies. A plume of mid and high level moisture was
rounding the northern periphery of the ridge across the
Intermountain West into the adjacent High Plains. A surface ridge
axis remained a fixture across the Eastern Plains into the Upper
Midwest region with influence continuing across our portion of the
world in southwest Kansas. Light easterly upslope flow will continue
today, along with the cool and fairly moist airmass. We will likely
see a swath of stratus clouds redevelop in the 09-12z time frame
early this morning with stratus continuing through the day across
portions of southwest KS...much like yesterday. We will carry some
20-30 POPs across mainly south-central KS as short term models
indicate some convective QPF in a weak zone of mid level
deformation. Nothing of significance is expected, however. We
lowered the forecast highs into the lower-mid 60s across a good
chunk of the area, using the NAM12, HiRes Nested 4km NAM, and WRF-
ARW blended solution. The extreme southwest should touch the warm
sector with the stratus cover just to their northeast. Highs in the
mid to upper 70s are likely from Elkhart to Johnson to Liberal.
.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Cool and moist weather will continue to be the theme through the
weekend. The best chance for widespread precipitation still appears
to be Friday Night into Saturday as a rather robust shortwave trough
ejects northeast across Colorado. this will provide some warm
frontogenesis in the 800-700mb layer across western Kansas with all
three major global spectral model solutions (GFS, ECMWF, GEM) all
showing a decent QPF signal with event total QPF amounts in the two
to four-tenths range. The rain on Saturday will certainly keep
temperatures quite cool, and daytime highs were lowered down into
the mid 50s for most of the forecast area.
This initial system will exist the region late Saturday, but we will
remain in a southwest flow pattern with the remnant airmass holding
in place (although a bit modified by Sunday with 850mb temperatures
back into the 12-15C territory). Another even more robust upper low
is now shown by the "Big 3" global models entering the West early
next week. Southerly flow will strengthen ahead of this larger scale
storm system across western Kansas, allowing us to finally erode
this cool airmass away. By Tuesday, though, the system is shown by
the "Big 3" consensus to show signs of weakening and become
positively tilted -- not favorable for a decent precipitation event.
That being said, by mid next week, the ECMWF shows another jet
streak coming in off the Pacific helping re-energize the upper low
as it approaches the High Plains, leading to a nice precipitation
event. At +168hr though, this solution must be taken with a grain
of salt. Nevertheless, an active southern branch of the polar jet
appears to be setting up across our latitude, so there`s at
least some hope for additional precipitation next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Lingering MVFR/IFR cigs at KGCK and KDDC will become VFR joining
KHYS toward late afternoon as prevailing low level stratus slowly
lifts through the day. However, MVFR/IFR cigs may be possible once
again late tonight as high relative humidity and a southeasterly
upslope flow across western Kansas persists. Winds will remain
southeasterly 5 to 15kt through the period with a broad area of
high pressure remaining locked in across the Great Lakes and Upper
Midwest.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 51 60 46 / 10 30 40 60
GCK 66 51 58 45 / 10 30 40 60
EHA 80 53 58 48 / 10 30 40 50
LBL 71 53 61 47 / 10 30 40 60
HYS 65 50 62 46 / 10 20 40 60
P28 65 51 65 49 / 30 20 30 50
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
246 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
High pressure will remain strong over east Canada with a ridge
extension down into the central U.S. Cool/mild NNE flow will
continue across the region in the short term. H5 low will move SE
across the TN valley to the gulf coast then stall. Moisture/clouds
still forecast to move back west with time along with a chance of
showers mainly east 1/3 to 1/2 of the area. Will keep tonight dry
with more clouds east, few west. Chance of showers east sections
starts Friday and lasts into Saturday night. Temps were a blend of
MOS and base model output.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
The medium-range models are in good agreement from Sunday through
the first half of next week, but really diverge by next Thursday.
Overall confidence is pretty high. In general, we can expect dry and
rather mild conditions well into next week.
High pressure aloft will build over the region Sunday, as the
influence of the pesky upper-low finally pushes east of the region.
We did leave in a slight chance in the east Sunday to give the low a
wide berth and blend in with our neighboring forecast offices.
High pressure will be in control both at the surface and aloft to
begin the week. This will result in a warming trend to near normal
levels by Monday and into the lower 80s by Wednesday, and possibly
into Thursday.
The 12Z ECMWF and GFS agree in bringing an upper-level storm system
eastward into the Rockies by the end of the day Wednesday. The
problem is that it is caught within a progressive split flow. The
GFS has been consistently pushing this system eastward into our area
Wednesday night and Thursday, while the ECMWF has been slower to
move it out of the Rockies. The 12Z ECMWF has trended farther south
with the system and now has it over northern Mexico Thursday evening
with continued ridging over our region.
This is not a high confidence scenario, and neither solution can be
ruled out at this time. We will keep a slight chance of showers over
the west Wednesday night and over the entire region Thursday given
the GFS`s consistency, but significant adjustments may ultimately be
necessary. Even if the GFS is close, it does not look like a major
cool down for the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Deck of MVFR clouds from KEVV to KCEY and east of that line with
diurnal CU developing elsewhere. Verified the wind gust forecasts
with some locales at or just above 20 kts. Through the afternoon
the RAP model, which has the best handle on the clouds, pushes the
MVFR cigs SW and diminishes the area with time. However, moisture
is still prevalent 4-6k/ft, so even though we expect improvement
there will still be some bkn cigs VFR, especially west KY. Tonight
there is a temporary decrease in low level moisture. Backed off
winds to around 6-8 kts NNE. We will bring back in lower clouds
but just above MVFR by 12z or so. Winds should become gusty again
from the NNE, some gusts around 20 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1232 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Aviation update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1256 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
As expected, clouds had a hard time dispersing. With high pressure
staying situated to the north, and developing low pressure moving
overhead, despite post frontal cool/dry advection, the atmospheric
column as a whole is having a hard time fully dispersing the
clouds. This trend wont be a whole lot better today, with neutral
to negative surface isallobaric tendencies across the south/east.
But across the north/west, positive anomalies are modeled and may
lead to a longer duration of sunshine today.
By 00Z Friday, the evolution of the upper Low across the Tn valley
will help induce an advecting moist tongue that should spell
spotty shower activity in our far southeastern counties...certainly
enough to warrant a slgt chance mention. After sunset, however,
diurnal flare enhanced instability lessens and should just mean
lingering clouds/silent pops for the overnight hours.
Friday-Friday night still looks to be the best chance of rain. By
then, the southward migration of the Low ends up helping sweep
tropical moisture from approaching Joaquin, as far north and west
as the Commonwealth, including basically our eastern half of the
CWA. We`ll have slgt chance-chance mentions ongoing, bumped up
slightly this package as each successive model run has supported a
wetter solution.
Saturday-Saturday night sees the Low migrate far enough to the
south and east to take us out of the PoP picture, even as some
wake high pressure ridging aloft noses into the Mid Ms valley from
the west. The tricky part will be the farthest east/southeast
counties...whether to maintain a slgt mention or silent Pop, which
we`ll leave to press time collab efforts.
While we might see a 70 here or there today, temps will range
through the 60s for highs, mainly, thru the short term. Similarly
isolated 50s notwithstanding, we`ll see predominant 40s for lows.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Although the track of Joaquin to and from the U.S. coastline
continues to be refine by the NHC, the medium range models appear
to phase the upper level trough, currently over WFO PAH, with this
tropical system as it moves toward the east coast.
This situation yields an uncommon reversal from the mean pattern.
Namely, the center of the nation will see a ridge, while
California and the Florida/Georgia coast see low pressure
translate and develop.
For the WFO PAH forecast area, this will mean dry and seasonable
weather through Wednesday morning. From Wednesday onward, the
California low become progressive and moves close to the WFO PAH
forecast area by next Thursday. The model blend forecast leans
toward a slower movement of this system, with the best rain
chances primarily over Southern Illinois and Southeast Missouri
next Thursday. The interplay between the east and west coast lows
and the tropical system will eventually determine the coverga of
weather into the area Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
Deck of MVFR clouds from KEVV to KCEY and east of that line with
diurnal CU developing elsewhere. Verified the wind gust forecasts
with some locales at or just above 20 kts. Through the afternoon
the RAP model, which has the best handle on the clouds, pushes the
MVFR cigs SW and diminishes the area with time. However, moisture
is still prevalent 4-6k/ft, so even though we expect improvement
there will still be some bkn cigs VFR, especially west KY. Tonight
there is a temporary decrease in low level moisture. Backed off
winds to around 6-8 kts NNE. We will bring back in lower clouds
but just above MVFR by 12z or so. Winds should become gusty again
from the NNE, some gusts around 20 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
...COLD WITH FROST INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT BUT
STAYING WARMER ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER UPR LAKES PERSISTS BETWEEN STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROPPED ACROSS MANTIOBA ON WEDNESDAY
HAS LED TO CLUSTER OF SHRA AND TSRA OVER ND THIS MORNING. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE OVER MN IN FRONT OF THE TROUGH...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
DISIPPATE WHILE MOVING TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
HAS BECOME CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY AT 1037MB/30.6 INCHES. RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS TO SOUTHWEST OVER LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MICHIGAN...BUT WEAK
GRADIENT IS STILL PRESENT...ESPECIALLY JUST OFF THE SFC. RESULT IS
THAT SUB FREEZING TEMPS AND FROST ARE NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUE
NIGHT/WED MORNING. LOWEST TEMP AS OF 3 AM EDT IS 27 DEGREES AT THE
FIRE WX RAWS SITES ON THE BARAGA PLAINS AND OVER NORTHERN LUCE
COUNTY. LOWEST TEMP AT HOME WEATHER SITE IS 29 NEAR PEAVY FALLS DAM
IN EASTERN IRON COUNTY...WHILE LOWEST TEMP AT AWOS/ASOS
SITES IS 30 DEGREES AT LAND O LAKES WI.
EAST FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND SOME MOISTURE AROUND 900MB/3KFT
AGL IS RESULTING IN SC/CU CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER MARQUETTE COUNTY
AND MORE SO OVER DOOR PENINSULA JUST TO EAST OF MENOMINEE. RAP AND
GFS WERE NOT AS OVERDONE WITH RH AS NAM/GEM-REGIONAL. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE AS THEY HAVE LAST COUPLE DAYS...TO A SCT-BKN CU DECK IN
THE MORNING AND THEN TO MIX OUT IN THE AFTN AS DRIER AIR IS MIXED
INTO THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. WARMING AT H9 SHOULD ALSO WORK AGAINST
AFTN CLOUD COVER. H85 TEMPS ARE WARMER BY 1-2C THAN WED...BUT LOW-
LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER. THESE OFFSET AND SHOULD
RESULT IN MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WARMEST INTERIOR WEST.
LOWS FOR TONIGHT AND RESULTING FROST POTENTIAL IS TRICKY. GRADIENT
JUST ABOVE SFC TIGHTENS EVEN MORE...AS SEEN IN H95-H925 LAYER. BUT
PWATS ARE MUCH LOWER THAN TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST SO THERE COULD
BE GREATER RADIATIONAL COOLING. DID NOT ALTER GOING FORECAST MINS
TOO MUCH INLAND...BUT DID RAISE TEMPS ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORES.
INSTEAD OF ISSUING SEPARATE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LIKE LAST TWO
MORNINGS...MENTIONED FROST POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IN GOING STATEMENT
FOR THIS MORNINGS FROST/FREEZE AS EXPECT FROST TONIGHT TO BE MORE
PATCHY. DAYSHIFT CAN ISSUE APPROPRIATE HEADLINE LATER TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL BE TEMPS AS DRY
HI PRES STRETCHING FM SE CANADA INTO THE UPR LKS WL REMAIN DOMINANT.
NEXT BEST SHOT AT PCPN WL BE NEXT TUE/WED AS RDG BREAKS DOWN AND A
MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS.
FRI THRU SAT NGT...AS HI AMPLITUDE UPR RDG BUILDS FM THE PLAINS
TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND THEN INTO SE CANADA...SFC HI PRES RDG
STRETCHING FM NEAR JAMES BAY INTO THE UPR LKS WL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY
AND STRENGTHEN. THE DRY AIRMASS UNDER THIS RDG...WITH PWAT IN THE
0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE...WL RESULT IN CONTINUED PCPN FREE WX. ON
FRI...H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO PEAK ARND 4C BUT THEN ONLY ARND 2C ON
SAT. WITH THE SOMEWHAT COOLER H85 TEMPS...THERE SHOULD BE MORE
DIURNAL CU ON SAT. BEGINNING ON FRI NGT...MODELS FCST WEAK SHRTWV/
MORE HI LVL MSTR AND HI CLDS WL SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE SE FLOW
ALF ARND UPR RDG CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY. THESE CLDS AND A STEADY E
WIND...WITH H925 WINDS UP TO 15-25 KTS...WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP
DROP ON FRI/SAT NGTS AND FROST POTENTIAL. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN
TEMPS BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...AN AREA THAT
WL BE MORE SHELTERED FM THE E FLOW. HI TEMPS ON FRI WL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPR 50S TO NEAR 60 BUT THEN PROBABLY ONLY THE MID 50S ON SAT
WITH THE LOWER H85 TEMPS/MORE HI CLDS AND SOME DIURNAL CU.
SUN/MON...ALTHOUGH THE UPR RDG OVER SE CANADA IS FCST TO WEAKEN
DURING THIS TIME AND A ALLOW A TRANSITION TO A MORE WSW FLOW ALF
ALONG THE CNDN BORDER...A SFC HI PRES RDG...ALBEIT A WEAKENING
ONE...IS FCST TO LINGER FM SE CANADA INTO THE UPR LKS. RECENT
ECMWF RUNS HAVE GENERATED SOME PCPN OVER MAINLY THE SE HALF OF
UPR MI WITH MORE MSTR ROTATING NNWD INTO THE UPR LKS. BUT SINCE MOST
OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN HI PRES RDG/DEEP DRY AIR LINGERING FARTHER FM
CLOSED LO OVER THE SE CONUS...FAVOR A DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD EVEN
IF THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH HI CLD IS ARND...
SUN NGT COULD BE QUITE CHILLY UNDER THE SFC RDG AXIS/LIGHT WINDS.
TUE/WED...A SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE MORE ZONAL UPR FLOW OVER SRN
CANADA IS FCST TO MOVE E WHILE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/MORE MSTR IN A
WEAKER SRN BRANCH WSW FLOW IN THE CONUS ARE FCST TO APRCH FM THE SW.
WHILE THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...EXPECT MORE CLDS AND SHOWER
CHCS TO RETURN AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
WARMER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY AT NGT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE LAKE SUPERIOR THRU SAT AS HIGH PRES IN
SE CANADA RIDGES BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES VCNTY. DURING THIS TIME
WINDS WILL VARY BTWN THE 10-20 KT AND 15-25 KT RANGE. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT COULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN...RESULTING IN WINDS
UNDER 20 KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1235 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
THE GFS AND ECM MODELS ARE SLOWING UP THE START TIME FOR RAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NAM AND SREF ARE VERY FAST RESEMBLING THE HRRR
WHICH BEGINS RAINFALL BY NOONTIME ACROSS WRN NEB. THE RAP IS
SLOWER LIKE THE GFS AND ECM WHICH SUGGESTS THE SLOWER MODELS
WOULD BE MORE ACCURATE.
THE FORECAST USES THE SLOWER MODELS WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE STEEP ENOUGH IN THE
00Z LBF AND UNR SOUNDINGS FOR A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS TODAY CONTINUE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. THE GUIDANCE CAME IN
VERY COOL FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF
DETERMINISTIC MODEL DATA FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
WHICH MIGHT STILL BE TOO COOL GIVEN THE SOUTHEAST WINDS...CLOUD
COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAINFALL. WHICH ARGUABLY COULD
CAUSE EVAPORATIVE COOLING BUT NOT NEARLY THE AMOUNT SUGGESTED BY
THE GUIDANCE. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
LONG TERM IS ACTIVE...HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE AS MODELS STILL
STRUGGLING TO AGREE...ESPECIALLY FOR NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL AID IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND ADD SOME UPSLOPE BL FLOW
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
WEST OF 83. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE CHILLY
SIDE...50S TO LOW 60S FOR FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL
LIFT/WEAK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS RIDGE SHIFTS/STALLS OVER
THE MISS RVR VALLEY. THIS BRINGS QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE
SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE REMAINS DECENT
FOR OCTOBER AND WILL CONTINUE TO RETAIN CHANCE WITH SOME
LIKELY POPS AS THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
STILL WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...WITH THE GFS ON THE
FASTER SIDE THIS MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
INTO THE 60S AND 70S. SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG/POST FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TEMPS COOL INTO THE 50S AND 60S IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING. PREVAILING VFR
IS EXPECTED FOR KLBF AND KVTN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 3KFT AT KLBF THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY AND MAY BE GUSTY AT
TIMES.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
500 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY QUIET BUT COOL THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM BACKS TOWARD THE
AREA BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT THE GENERAL
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK
FOR THAT SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN RECENT TRENDS ARE FAVORING THAT
THE STORM AND ITS IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE AT 5 PM FOR A BAND OF RAIN THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE POCONOS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND SHOWS RAIN TRACKING FROM THE POCONOS
INTO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY THROUGH ABOUT 9 PM. HAVE RAISED POPS IN
THIS AREA TO COVER FOR THIS AREA OF RAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM IS SKY COVER FORECAST AND
PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS SKIRTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS TO OUR SOUTH WITH A STRONG HIGH TO OUR
NORTH.
AS OF MID AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS PUSHING UP INTO NE PA TOWARD
SULLIVAN COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE. ELSEWHERE STRATUS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH OVER CENTRAL NY WITH ONLY THE N/W BREAKING
INTO ANY REAL SUNSHINE. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MOSTLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH, CLOUDS LOOK TO HAVE A
TOUGH TIME BREAKING UP OVER NY SOUTHERN TIER WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING INTO THE FINGER LAKES. LOWS WILL BE QUITE COOL...MAINLY
IN THE LOW 40S WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 30S THROUGH COLDER SPOTS SUCH
AS THE CATSKILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AREA
REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH TO
THE NORTH. EXPECT ANOTHER MAINLY CLOUDY DAY FROM THE NY SOUTHERN
TIER SOUTH WITH SOME MORNING SUN FARTHER NORTH GIVING WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. MOST OF THE AREA STAYS DRY THOUGH STILL
CAN`T RULE A OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHER AREAS
FROM LUZERNE EAST THROUGH SULLIVAN COUNTIES DUE TO FRONT SITTING
OFF TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS STAY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BEGIN TO PUSH
BACK TO N/W THOUGH TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS TO MAKE LESS OF A N/W
PUSH INTO CWA DUE TO STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH. THEREFOR BRING
LIKELY TO CAT POPS INTO NE PA BUT ONLY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF JOAQUIN AND THE EURO HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. NOW...LATEST
TWO RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...KEEP JOAQUIN OFFSHORE AS WELL...INCRSG CONFIDENCE THAT
THE GREATEST IMPACT OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE FCST AREA.
DEEP ELY FLOW AHD OF JOAQUIN WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE BLKG RDG OVER THE NE LIMITS IT/S NWRD
EXTENT. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD RCH THE NY/PA BRDR 12Z
SAT...BUT RDGG FROM THE NORTH PUSHES SWRD AFT 00Z SUN KEEPING THE
AREA GNRLY DRY INTO MON. SOME WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW IN THE FORM OF
AN INV TROF MAY ALLOW SOME LGTR PCPN TO LIFT INTO WRN NY AND MAY
BRING SOME LGT SHWRS TO THE SW ZONES.
WLY/S GRAB JOAQUIN ON MON AND TUE AND EJECT IT EWRD. WLY FLOW OVER
THE FCST AREA WILL BRING A SHRT WV THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE AREA WED BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHWRS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS HAS DISSIPATED FOR KSYR/KRME BUT PERSISTS FOR REMAINING
SITES. TREND HAS BEEN FOR THIS TO DIMINISH SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
SO EXPECT FUEL ALT MVFR CIGS TO PREDOMINATE UNTIL AROUND 21Z FOR
KITH/KELM/KBGM. KAVP HAS LIFTED TO LOW VFR BUT MAY STILL SEE
PERIODS OF MVFR FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BY THIS EVENING ALL SITES
SHOULD BE VFR. OVERNIGHT, GUIDANCE IS INDICATING FOG FOR KELM
HOWEVER DO NOT SEE THIS AS LIKELY SINCE WINDS LOOK TO BE TOO
STRONG CREATING TOO MUCH MIXING SO WE DON`T INCLUDE THIS IN TAF
AND KEEP ALL SITES VFR TONIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
N/NE WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...POTENTIAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FRONTAL ZONE BACKING INTO THE
AREA...AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF SLOWLY MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM.
TIMING AND TRACK SPECIFICS UNCERTAIN.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SEPTEMBER ENDED WET AND COOL. THIS PARTIALLY REVERSED THE DRY WARM
MONTH. NO PRECIP RECORDS WITH THE 1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE LAST 3
DAYS. BGM AND AVP BELOW NORMAL AND SYR ABOVE. AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR AVP THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER EVER. BGM NUMBER 2 AND SYR NUMBER
3.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...MSE/PCF
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...PCF
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1115 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Showers / isolated thunder western fringe of forecast area
gradually diminishing in coverage while dropping southeast.
Only minor adjustments made from earlier 839 am update.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Even with scattered showers and thunderstorms across northeast Oklahoma
this morning, VFR conditions are prevailing. Fog has been and intermittent
problem at KFYV overnight. Have gone with some MVFR fog there for a few hours
this morning. Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the valid period at all area TAF sites.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across
parts of southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma...in zone of
isentropic lift noted along 305K surface. HRRR appears to have a
reasonable handle on this...and will carry some low PoPs through
the morning hours generally west of Highway 75. Otherwise expect
a cool start to October...with high temperatures running a few
degrees below seasonal norms.
Surface ridging will lock in the dry low-level airmass across the
region through the weekend and into early next week...with
several days of seasonally cool weather in store. 00Z model runs
continue to keep highest mean RH to our west...and the forecast
will remain dry.
The mid-level ridge will eventually erode next week as pieces of
shortwave energy eject east out the mean trof position. Southerly
flow and improving moisture will kick in by Tuesday...with rain
chances increasing toward mid-week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 74 47 69 47 / 10 10 0 0
FSM 77 49 73 49 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 77 49 70 48 / 80 10 0 0
BVO 72 42 69 42 / 10 10 0 0
FYV 70 40 67 42 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 68 45 65 44 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 73 47 69 47 / 10 10 0 0
MIO 69 45 67 44 / 10 0 0 0
F10 73 49 68 48 / 70 10 0 0
HHW 81 52 76 48 / 60 0 0 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
552 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A MASSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
AND EXTENSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL SET UP DEEP-MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 21Z SHOWS AN AREA OF LGT RAIN ACROSS THE SE
QUADRANT OF PA ASSOC LIFT AT NOSE OF MOIST ENE LL JET. NR TERM MDL
GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVR SE PA THIS
EVENING THEN SHIFT SOUTH OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRES
AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS NUDGE SOUTH FROM ONTARIO/UPSTATE NY.
RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR SUGGEST THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
RAIN WILL RUN ROUGHLY FROM KUNV TO KIPT THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT
SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT BASED ON
BLEND OF LATEST MDL QPF RANGES FROM NOTHING NORTH OF I-80...TO
PERHAPS A QUARTER INCH OVER SOUTHERN YORK/LANCASTER COUNTIES.
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVER THE SERN 2/3 OR SO OF THE REGION.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S OVER THE NW MTNS...WHERE PTCLDY
SKIES EXPECTED...TO THE L50S OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SREF AND GEFS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF THE INCREASING SELY FLOW
BRINGING RAIN BACK TO THE NW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. BY EVENING IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...WITH AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY
IMPRESSIVE...PERHAPS A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
IT WILL REMAIN COOL IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS HINTED AT LATELY...SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROS THE NW TODAY.
HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING AT WET WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A LARGE HIGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA RESULTS IN A NE TO E FLOW BECOMING MORE SE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVDER THE SE THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPANDING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE MODELS HINT AT THESE AREA SHOULD
DIE BY SUNSET...HARD TO SEE THIS OCCURRING.
THUS REGARDLESS OF INPUT FROM THE TROPICS...STILL LOOKING AT A
WINDY...COOL...WET PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND. DID LOWER TEMPS
SOME AND UP WINDS SOME.
SOME RAIN COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AND MAYBE TUE AM...DEPENDING
ON THE INTERACTION OF THE LARGE SCALE FLOW WITH THE HURRICANE.
LEFT QPF CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAD...JUST A TAD LOWER FURTHER OUT
IN TIME. STILL LOOKS LIKE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
WOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
FRONTAL GRADIENT AT 850 MB LIKELY TO BE INTENSE...AS COLDER AIR
BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NY AND WARM...TROPICAL AIR ADVECTS
TO THE NW FROM THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CEILINGS IN THE 1500-2500` RANGE REMAIN STUBBORNLY STUCK OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR SOME VERY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SERN TERMINALS COULD BE THE EXCEPTION WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE REGION KEEPING MARGINAL CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FURTHER LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY FROM SE TO NW AS STEADIER RAIN AND LOWER CIGS PUSH
NORTHWESTWARD.
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTHERN PA.
SAT-MON...RAIN/REDUCED CIGS POSSIBLE...ESP SOUTHERN PA.
TUE...IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN