Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/29/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
617 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
UPDATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON FRONTAL TRENDS AND
THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS. FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE...INITIALLY
WITH THE FRONT AND THEN SPREADING EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
...COOLER WEATHER MOVING INTO THE REGION...
CURRENTLY...
COOL FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ON KPUX AT 3 PM RUNNING
NEARLY E-W FROM JUST N OF KPUB TO JUST N OF EADS. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH WHILE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY EASTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED. A LINE OF WEAK CUMULUS WERE
NOTED WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS W WY/NW CO THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL BRING THE FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS LATER TODAY
AND INTO THIS EVENING.
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS VARY ON INTENSITY AND
LOCATION...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE SOME
ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING GENERALLY N OF HIGHWAY 50.
HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A CLUSTER OF WEAK
STORMS FORMING UP IN EL PASO COUNTY AND THEN DROPPING EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HRRR HAS BEEN HANGING ONTO THIS
SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL RUNS...BUT BELIEVE IT MAY BE OVERDONE AS
COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE.
AS FOR CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT WE WILL SEE A BROKEN DECK
DEVELOP BUT BELIEVE ANY CIG WILL MAINLY BE A MID LVL DECK AS PER
SOUNDINGS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS UP IN N EL PASO COUNTY
AND MAYBE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY NE WINDS DEVELOP SOON OVER THE EL
PASO/PUEBLO COUNTY REGION AND LAST INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT
SURGES SOUTH.
TOMORROW...
MOS PRODUCTS SHOW RATHER HIGH POPS TOMORROW ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND FORCING...PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT I AM A BIT HESITANT
ON GOING AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE. FOR NOW PAINTED THE GREATER I-25
CORRIDOR REGION IN SCATTERED POPS WITH MORE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE RATON MESA REGION
AS FOR TIMING...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION...AND THE AREA OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE
AS IT MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DOWN THE S MTN RANGE.
THE BIG NEWS TOMORROW WILL BE THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO THE AREA...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS
N EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL AS COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET INTO THE LARGER
VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION
TOMORROW. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO NEW
MEXICO. MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR NORTH.
BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AND
HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS WITH DEW
POINTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH FORECAST 500MB WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS. SHORTWAVE
APPEARS TO BE LACKING WHICH CAN HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION...GIVEN THE WEAKER AUTUMN SOLAR HEATING. HAVE SOME
ISOLATED POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS TO DEVELOP.
.THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR A DRY AND WARM
DAY.
.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BEST FORCING WILL MOSTLY BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE LOW. THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED STARTING SATURDAY. EC AND
CANADIAN HAVE THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY. A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
MONDAY. THIS IS A WARMER SOLUTION WITH MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
MARTY MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE GFS LACKS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
AND IT HAS AN UPPER LOW STALLING OVER COLORADO. THIS WOULD PROVIDE
A MUCH COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION. WPC SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE THE
BLEND OF THE TWO AND PREDICTABILITY IS BELOW AVERAGE. CR EXTENDED
GRIDS ARE A DECENT COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND ONLY
TWEAKED THE GRIDS FOR CONSISTENCY. WITH A TROUGH NEARBY...THIS
WEEKEND COULD BE COOLER WITH MORE AUTUMN LIKE TEMPERATURES.
--PGW--
--PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS.
A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVER KCOS AND POSSIBLY KPUB. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER KCOS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CIGS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BUT SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY MID LVL.
TOMORROW...SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLD TSRA ARE LIKELY AT KCOS AND
POSSIBLY AT KPUB. SHOWERS WILL FORM RELATIVELY EARLY (LATE MORNING?)
AND MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DOWN THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE.
KALS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
THE NAM AND HRRR ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. THE LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS BEING REPORTED THIS MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS WOULD
SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL.
AN UPR RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WL
KEEP THE WEATHER DRY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND
THE GFS SHOW SOME PCPN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
OVR PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD. CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD BE QUITE
LOW...BUT WL PUT SOME SPOTTY 10 POPS OVR THE SW MTNS. HIGH TEMPS
TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE WARMING BEING OVR
THE SERN PLAINS. MOST AREAS WL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE.
TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND LOW TEMPS IN MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS KEEP MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
PAC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FIRST WAVE IS WITH THE GFS AND NAM...TO A LESSER
DEGREE...FURTHER SOUTH AND PRINT OUT MORE QPF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THAN THE EC AND
CANADIAN 00Z RUNS...WHICH ARE FURTHER NORTH AND KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
FOR MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSER THE DRIER EC AND CANADIAN FORECAST. FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE
IN THE MORNING WHICH BACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...OWNING TO QUICKLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE
COLORADO BEFORE SLOWLY COOLING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS
ON TUESDAY LOOK TO COOL SOME 5-10F...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION AS PAC NORTHWEST WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. AGAIN SOME DIFFERENCES
ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF SAID WAVE...WITH THE GFS FASTER AND
FURTHER NORTH. AT ANY RATE...SAID PATTERN LOOKS TO KEEP THE AREA
MAINLY DRY...WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY...LEADING TO POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE GFS AND EC CONTINUING TO SHOW RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN
LOCATION OF PASSING SYSTEM. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE THE GFS MAINLY DRY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHEREAS THE EC IS WETTER
ACROSS THE AREA AND HAS THE SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO BEFORE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH SAID DIFFERENCES AND NOT MUCH CONSENSUS IN ENSEMBLE
DATA...HAVE KEPT CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN TACT FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. LOOK TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
SW MTS...VCNTY OF WOLF CREEK...THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...INCLUDING
THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE MTS AFTER 21Z MONDAY.
MOORE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS PUEBLO CO
415 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
THE NAM AND HRRR ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. THE LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS BEING REPORTED THIS MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS WOULD
SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL.
AN UPR RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WL
KEEP THE WEATHER DRY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND
THE GFS SHOW SOME PCPN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
OVR PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD. CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD BE QUITE
LOW...BUT WL PUT SOME SPOTTY 10 POPS OVR THE SW MTNS. HIGH TEMPS
TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE WARMING BEING OVR
THE SERN PLAINS. MOST AREAS WL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE.
TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND LOW TEMPS IN MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS KEEP MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
PAC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FIRST WAVE IS WITH THE GFS AND NAM...TO A LESSER
DEGREE...FURTHER SOUTH AND PRINT OUT MORE QPF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THAN THE EC AND
CANADIAN 00Z RUNS...WHICH ARE FURTHER NORTH AND KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
FOR MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSER THE DRIER EC AND CANADIAN FORECAST. FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE
IN THE MORNING WHICH BACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...OWNING TO QUICKLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE
COLORADO BEFORE SLOWLY COOLING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS
ON TUESDAY LOOK TO COOL SOME 5-10F...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION AS PAC NORTHWEST WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. AGAIN SOME DIFFERENCES
ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF SAID WAVE...WITH THE GFS FASTER AND
FURTHER NORTH. AT ANY RATE...SAID PATTERN LOOKS TO KEEP THE AREA
MAINLY DRY...WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY...LEADING TO POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE GFS AND EC CONTINUING TO SHOW RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN
LOCATION OF PASSING SYSTEM. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE THE GFS MAINLY DRY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHEREAS THE EC IS WETTER
ACROSS THE AREA AND HAS THE SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO BEFORE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH SAID DIFFERENCES AND NOT MUCH CONSENSUS IN ENSEMBLE
DATA...HAVE KEPT CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN TACT FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. LOOK TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE VCNTY OF KPUB
AND KCOS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
KALS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1139 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. STILL
NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE PLAINS BUT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
50S...TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE LOW AND SURFACE WINDS
HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS. SO...IT
COULD STILL HAPPEN LATER TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PUSHED BACK ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PLAINS GIVEN
LACK OF DEVELOPMENT INDICATED BY SATELLITE PICTURES SO FAR.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SLOWED THE WARMING PROCESS
CONSIDERABLY.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE
EASTERN CO BORDER. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SFC WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BE MORE SOUTHERLY THEN E-SE...BUT HRRR...WRF AND RUC MODELS HINT
AT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING RIGHT ALONG THE ARKANSAS TONIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THIS WOULD AID IN SOME LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES...AND PORTIONS
OF KIOWA AND BACA COUNTIES AS WELL...WITH KLHX AND KLAA BEING THE
MAIN AREAS AFFECTED. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FROM 06Z-13Z TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND NOT BECOME DENSE.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 50F FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...60S AND 70S FOR THE MTS. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
...PATTERN TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE...
THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD AS LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THEY SHOULD BRING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED PRECIP TO THE REGION.
MONDAY...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL
BE IN THE 85 TO 90F RANGE WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEMPS IN THE
VALLEYS WILL ALSO BE WARM WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F. AN ISOLD SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TUESDAY...
A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME DOWN THE PLAINS SOMETIME
TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE AT MIDDLE LEVELS MOVES TO OUR NORTH.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH SOME CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD
TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS ON
THE PLAINS RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD
IN THE VALLEYS WITH 70S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY...
WE GET HOT AGAIN WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
HIGHS. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
THURSDAY...
BOTH MODELS SHOW A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE COMING TOWARDS THE REGION
FROM THE WEST ON THIS DAY. GFS IS A BIT WEAKER BUT QUICKER WITH THE
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS STRONGER AND A BIT SLOWER. IN EITHER CASE
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE HOT ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WITH MID 80S TO L90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 70S VALLEYS. FOR
NOW...I ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE C MTNS THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIMES LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. IF EC IS CORRECT...WE WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...POPS CHANCES WILL BE LESS AS SHORT WAVE IS
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. ATTM...MAX TEMPS FOR THU ARE PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S....BUT I THINK THESE VALUES MAY BE A
BIT WARM NO MATTER WHAT GUIDANCE VERIFIES. I WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS COME IN COOLER FOR MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AS OF 05Z.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED LOW CIGS ALONG THE LOWER
ARKANSAS EARLY SUN MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE MON
EVENING BUT IT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1105 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PUSHED BACK ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PLAINS GIVEN
LACK OF DEVELOPMENT INDICATED BY SATELLITE PICTURES SO FAR.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SLOWED THE WARMING PROCESS
CONSIDERABLY.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE
EASTERN CO BORDER. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SFC WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BE MORE SOUTHERLY THEN E-SE...BUT HRRR...WRF AND RUC MODELS HINT
AT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING RIGHT ALONG THE ARKANSAS TONIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THIS WOULD AID IN SOME LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES...AND PORTIONS
OF KIOWA AND BACA COUNTIES AS WELL...WITH KLHX AND KLAA BEING THE
MAIN AREAS AFFECTED. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FROM 06Z-13Z TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND NOT BECOME DENSE.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 50F FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...60S AND 70S FOR THE MTS. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
...PATTERN TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE...
THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD AS LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THEY SHOULD BRING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED PRECIP TO THE REGION.
MONDAY...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL
BE IN THE 85 TO 90F RANGE WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEMPS IN THE
VALLEYS WILL ALSO BE WARM WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F. AN ISOLD SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TUESDAY...
A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME DOWN THE PLAINS SOMETIME
TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE AT MIDDLE LEVELS MOVES TO OUR NORTH.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH SOME CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD
TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS ON
THE PLAINS RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD
IN THE VALLEYS WITH 70S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY...
WE GET HOT AGAIN WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
HIGHS. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
THURSDAY...
BOTH MODELS SHOW A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE COMING TOWARDS THE REGION
FROM THE WEST ON THIS DAY. GFS IS A BIT WEAKER BUT QUICKER WITH THE
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS STRONGER AND A BIT SLOWER. IN EITHER CASE
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE HOT ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WITH MID 80S TO L90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 70S VALLEYS. FOR
NOW...I ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE C MTNS THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIMES LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. IF EC IS CORRECT...WE WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...POPS CHANCES WILL BE LESS AS SHORT WAVE IS
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. ATTM...MAX TEMPS FOR THU ARE PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S....BUT I THINK THESE VALUES MAY BE A
BIT WARM NO MATTER WHAT GUIDANCE VERIFIES. I WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS COME IN COOLER FOR MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AS OF 05Z.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED LOW CIGS ALONG THE LOWER
ARKANSAS EARLY SUN MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE MON
EVENING BUT IT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1010 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PUSHED BACK ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PLAINS GIVEN
LACK OF DEVELOPMENT INDICATED BY SATELLITE PICTURES SO FAR.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SLOWED THE WARMING PROCESS
CONSIDERABLY.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE
EASTERN CO BORDER. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SFC WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BE MORE SOUTHERLY THEN E-SE...BUT HRRR...WRF AND RUC MODELS HINT
AT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING RIGHT ALONG THE ARKANSAS TONIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THIS WOULD AID IN SOME LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES...AND PORTIONS
OF KIOWA AND BACA COUNTIES AS WELL...WITH KLHX AND KLAA BEING THE
MAIN AREAS AFFECTED. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FROM 06Z-13Z TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND NOT BECOME DENSE.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 50F FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...60S AND 70S FOR THE MTS. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
...PATTERN TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE...
THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD AS LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THEY SHOULD BRING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED PRECIP TO THE REGION.
MONDAY...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL
BE IN THE 85 TO 90F RANGE WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEMPS IN THE
VALLEYS WILL ALSO BE WARM WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F. AN ISOLD SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TUESDAY...
A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME DOWN THE PLAINS SOMETIME
TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE AT MIDDLE LEVELS MOVES TO OUR NORTH.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH SOME CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD
TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS ON
THE PLAINS RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD
IN THE VALLEYS WITH 70S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY...
WE GET HOT AGAIN WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
HIGHS. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
THURSDAY...
BOTH MODELS SHOW A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE COMING TOWARDS THE REGION
FROM THE WEST ON THIS DAY. GFS IS A BIT WEAKER BUT QUICKER WITH THE
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS STRONGER AND A BIT SLOWER. IN EITHER CASE
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE HOT ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WITH MID 80S TO L90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 70S VALLEYS. FOR
NOW...I ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE C MTNS THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIMES LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. IF EC IS CORRECT...WE WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...POPS CHANCES WILL BE LESS AS SHORT WAVE IS
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. ATTM...MAX TEMPS FOR THU ARE PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S....BUT I THINK THESE VALUES MAY BE A
BIT WARM NO MATTER WHAT GUIDANCE VERIFIES. I WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS COME IN COOLER FOR MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE SE CO PLAINS TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME AREAS OF LOW
CIGS UP THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUN
MORNING. MOST OF THE LOW CIGS SHOULD STAY E OF KLHX...AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LESS EXTENSIVE AND PERSISTENT THEN IT WAS
SAT MORNING. HAVE ALLUDED TO FEW020 CIGS IN THE KPUB TAF TO
ACCOUNT FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME STRATUS MOVING UP THE
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1031 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TOMORROW...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT...
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
NRN NY AND THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE FORMING
WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...AND A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN
THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT. THE KENX RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND SE
CATSKILLS. THIS IS DUE TO THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE PCPN FROM
THESE SHOWERS...AND WE HAVE JUST ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST
00Z RAOB FROM KALY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ABOVE 700 HPA...BUT FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE REGION INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHC AND LIKELY
VALUES IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE A MUCH MORE HUMID EVENING
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS WITH SFC DEWPTS CREEPING UP
INTO THE M50S TO M60S. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO M60S...EXCEPT SOME U50S OVER THE SRN
GREENS...N-CNTRL BERKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
MORNING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
EVENING...AND THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START TO BECOMING LIGHTER IN INTENSITY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PWATS RISE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG H10-H8 THETA E RIDGE ALSO IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES ARE 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR ALBANY
SHOWING A RANGE OF 1.5 TO 4.5 INCHES WITH A CLUSTERING AROUND 2.5
INCHES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH QPF VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 3
INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
TUESDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE AS THE AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE FA. STILL WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND CHANCE POPS NORTH. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.
THURSDAY AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. IT WILL BE A
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS WET AND UNSETTLED WITH
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC PATTERN FOR PERIODS OF RAINFALL BASED ON THE MEDIUM
RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...AND THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THERE
IS A GENERAL SHIFT TO A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS
IN THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SURGES OF ATLANTIC AND GULF
MOISTURE POSSIBLE.
OUR FCST CONTINUES THE TREND OF LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATEST
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN...SUPERBLEND AND THE WPC GUIDANCE STARTING THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED H500 CLOSED OR CUTOFF LOW WILL
LIKELY BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. A STRONG H250 JET WILL
BE NEAR THE EAST COAST...A STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST OFF THE COAST.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE ADVANCING N/NE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE EC/WPC/CAN GGEM/GEFS INDICATE ONE SHORT-WAVE
WILL MOVE IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL.
PWAT VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE LATEST
GEFS ARE 1 TO 2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS DOES EVENTUALLY
BRING SOME RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON...AS A SFC
WAVE/FORMER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE /POSSIBLY TD-11/MAY MOVE N/NE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. OVERALL...HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF
THE FCST AREA THU NIGHT...AND CHC POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH CHC POPS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN
DACKS WHERE SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE USED FOR THE RAINFALL ON FRI. LOWS
THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH MID AND U40S OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S ON FRI WITH THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN. EXPECT A FEW U40S OVER THE HIGH
PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.
FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A WET AND UNSETTLED WEEKEND IS LIKELY WITH
THE H500 LONG-WAVE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH FOCUSING PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS ARE INDICATING PWAT ANOMALIES OF
1 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V WIND ANOMALIES/
OF 1 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEAR EXTREME ERN NY AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND. DEEP TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC IS LIKELY. A WAVE OR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT ENHANCING THE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SAT/SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SFC WAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
ACTUALLY...THE ECMWF IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS HERE WITH SFC
WAVE OR TROPICAL SYSTEM BEING CAPTURED BY AN H500 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND JUST HAS SOME
OVER RUNNING MOISTURE IN THE NY/NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR WITH SOME
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF WOULD
BRING THE CUTOFF LOW TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHC POPS FOR RAIN FRI
NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...AND THEN LOWERED TO LOWER CHC POPS ON
SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECASTING EXACT TIMING HERE.
ALSO...DURING THIS STRETCH OF FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE PROBS FOR 2 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE IN 24 HRS
ARE STILL UNDER 30 PERCENT FROM THE LATEST GEFS FOR MOST OF THE FCST
AREA /FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT/. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN
THE CLOUDY AND WET REGIME WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND U40S
WITH SOME U30S TO L40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS ON SAT WILL
BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE MID AND U50S...WITH SUNDAY BEING
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH M50S TO L60S POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ON AN OPTIMISTIC NOTE...THE LATEST
GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES A DRYING TREND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM OH VALLEY AND SE CANADA.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT ON THE 12Z GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF
WOULD KEEP IT WET AND UNSETTLED WITH THE CUTOFF OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTHEAST WITH SCT SHOWERS. IN THE FCST GRIDS...WE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. TEMPS TREND TO EARLY OCTOBER SEASONAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SOME CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. IT WILL NOT BE
A WIDESPREAD RAIN AS WE GO PAST 12Z TUESDAY WITH THE MOISTURE OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME
AT KGFL WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS WE GO PAST 18Z AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...AND WITH KGFL IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BEST
CHANCES OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST AT AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF KALB.
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL DETERIORATE AS WE GO PAST 18Z AS
OVC SKIES AND MORE STEADY RAINFALL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO
SE APPROACHING THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO START THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN PICK UP OUT OF
THE SE-SW BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT... BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...DROP TO 65 TO 85 PERCENT ON TUESDAY...RECOVER TO 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DROP TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...SOUTH AT
5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY...VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. A MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SLOW-
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT.
RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALL
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RISING WITH THE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT
APPEARS A SOAKING RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR 4+ INCHES IN SOME AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL FORECASTS WILL BE REFINED AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.
THE LATEST USGS STREAMFLOW DATA SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE REPORTING STREAMFLOW LEVELS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL LEVELS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE LOCAL
AREA IN THE D0 CATEGORY...ABNORMALLY DRY. SO MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR POTENTIAL RAPID RISES ON THE SMALLER/FLASHY RIVERS/STREAMS AS
RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL RAINFALL RATES. MMEFS ANALYSIS FROM
THE SREF HAS ROSENDALE...WILLIAMSTOWN...EAGLE BRIDGE AND
ROCKINGHAM HAVING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD
STAGE THROUGH 18Z ON THE 1ST OF OCTOBER. IT ALSO HAS COLD BROOK
AND PRATTSVILLE WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING ACTION
STAGE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...LFM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
902 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AROUND TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE...
...THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...
CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...NARROW BAND OF INVIGORATED CONVECTION LIFTING
NORTH THRU CENTRAL FL MOST NOTEWORTHY NEAR SANFORD TO LAKE GEORGE
WITH BANDED CLOUDS SOUTH OF THAT. PERSISTENT LIGHTNING SUPPORTS A
CONTINUED MENTION FOR ISOLATED STORMS THIS PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN IN FORECAST ACROSS THE BOARD OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GATHER OVER THE EAST GULF OF MEXICO
ENDEAVORING TO OVERSPREAD THE PENINSULA. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF AGREE
WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO GULF PRECIP TO ENSUE AFTER 03Z AND
CONTINUE ITS ENCROACHMENT OVERNIGHT. A FEW POCKETS OF EMBEDDED
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 70S.
TUE...(FROM PREVIOUS) WEAK LOW OVER THE N/NE GULF MOVES NORTHWARD
INTO THE FL PANHANDLE INTO TUE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL IN A S/SW FLOW. DESPITE THIS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR
IN DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNIFICANT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE AFT. MOS POPS
REMAIN HIGH AND WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM THESE NUMBERS DUE TO
THE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
TO 60 PERCENT BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT UNTIL
THINGS CLEAR. HIGH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE MID/UPPER 80S
TOMORROW.
&&
.AVIATION...VCTS FOR KSFB THRU 03Z WITH OCNL CEILINGS 025CB. ALL SITES
VCSH OVERNIGHT AS PRECIP TOWARD KTPA BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST.
MAY NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUP FOR OCNL PERIODS OF RA AND CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY BELOW VFR. WILL WAIT UNTIL PRECIP SHIFT ACTUALLY
BEGINS FOR BETTER TIMING.
&&
.MARINE...LIGHT SE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS BECOMES S/SW INTO TUE AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVES NORTHWARD. NORTHEAST SWELLS
WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD ~11 SEC UP TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
.COASTAL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
AS ELEVATED SWELLS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH DEPARTURES UP
TO 1 TO 1.5 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THESE LEVELS MAY CAUSE
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WITH WAVE RUN
UP TO THE BASE OF THE DUNES ALONG SEVERAL BEACHES.
THE NEXT THREE HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
DAYTONA BEACH.....900 PM MONDAY...925 AM TUESDAY...953 PM TUESDAY
PORT CANAVERAL....842 PM MONDAY...911 AM TUESDAY...934 PM TUESDAY
SEBASTIAN INLET...851 PM MONDAY...923 AM TUESDAY...940 PM TUESDAY
FT PIERCE INLET...908 PM MONDAY...940 AM TUESDAY...957 PM TUESDAY
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR CONTINUES NEAR 3.0 FT
WHICH IS ABOUT 0.2 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH
TIDES DOWNSTREAM HAVE AFFECTED THE DISCHARGE RATE BACKING UP THE RIVER
LEVEL. RIVER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY
BUT REMAINING IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN IN OR NEAR THE BASIN THROUGH
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR RISES DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 86 74 89 / 40 60 30 30
MCO 75 87 75 89 / 40 60 20 30
MLB 74 89 75 91 / 40 60 30 30
VRB 73 89 75 90 / 40 60 30 30
LEE 76 86 74 87 / 40 60 20 30
SFB 75 88 75 89 / 40 60 20 30
ORL 76 88 75 89 / 40 60 20 30
FPR 74 89 74 91 / 30 60 30 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
COUNTY-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DS
IMPACT WX....MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
751 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.AVIATION...
LINE OF STORMS OVER THE GULF WILL APPROACH APF THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH WEAKENING. SOME MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
WHEN IT ARRIVES. HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS MAY ONCE
AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. A SHRTWV WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARDS THE FL PANHANDLE. SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015/
UPDATE...
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT REALLY HAMPERED AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS
AND THIS TREND IS BLENDING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A
STRONG TO SEVERE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THIS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE OUTER SHORE GULF WATERS AND THE QUESTION IS JUST
HOW FAR TO THE EAST THIS WILL TRAVEL. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT IT
WILL DIMINISH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST BUT THERE COULD
STILL BE A FEW STORMS THAT MOVE INTO COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY LATER
TONIGHT BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE A RATHER
TRANQUIL EVENING.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE SET THROUGH POSSIBLY TUESDAY
EVENING. TIDAL FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS PAST WEEKEND AND
EARLIER TODAY. FORECAST TIDAL LEVELS SHOW A SLIGHT RISE AT EACH
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WITH A SMALL NE SWELL IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE EXPECTATION OF TIDAL
FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL
BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. KEPT THE COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR THE GULF COAST AS FLOODING IS FORECAST TO BE
SLIGHTLY LESS THERE.
WEATHERWISE, AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SOUTH FLORIDA IS
CURRENTLY SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN TWO TROUGHS, ONE CENTERED OVER THE
TX/LA BORDER AND THE OTHER ALONG 70W EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLAND
CHAIN. THIS PLACES SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WITH PATHETICALLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS. THE 500MB
TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING FROM THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING WAS -4C WHICH
IS THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR THIS DATE. THIS IS RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE EVEN WITH A HIGH PWAT
VALUE OF WELL OVER 2" AND HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED THE POPS AND
CHANCES FOR THUNDER. THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN UPSTREAM MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND PICK UP THE GULF
TROUGH AND LIFT IT TO THE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THE ATLANTIC
TROUGH. THROUGH THIS PROCESS, THE MID AND UPPER FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL BECOME DEEP WESTERLY BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TYPICALLY, THIS WOULD YIELD THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS AFTERNOON STORMS BUILD OVER
THE INTERIOR AND MOVE EASTWARD. BUT IN THIS CASE, THE DEEPEST
LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PORTIONS AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO OUR WEST DRAWING MOISTURE
UP FROM THE TROPICAL REGIONS. SO IF SOME CLEARING COULD OCCUR
EITHER ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MORE MID LEVEL COOLING,
THEN THE PATTERN OF RAINFALL MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER
FORECASTS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA EITHER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS SOLUTION WITH THE
LATEST MEX GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS SHOWING DEW POINTS FALLING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE
FIRST TASTE OF FALL SOUTH FLORIDA STYLE? WE SHALL SEE. THE DRIER
AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
A SMALL NE SWELL WITH PERIOD NEAR 10 SEC IS FORECAST FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...ABOUT 1 FT OFF MIAMI-DADE TO 2-3 FT OFF THE
NORTHERN PALM BEACH COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH
PREDOMINANT DIRECTION OUT OF THE S-SE EARLY THIS WEEK...BECOMING
W-NW MID TO LATE WEEK. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 5 FT OFF THE NORTHERN
PALM BEACH COAST TODAY-TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING. LOWER SEAS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE SOUTH FL MARINE SERVICE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 91 76 92 / 20 20 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 91 77 91 / 10 20 30 60
MIAMI 77 92 77 92 / 10 20 30 60
NAPLES 78 87 78 88 / 40 50 60 70
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
724 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.UPDATE...
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT REALLY HAMPERED AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS
AND THIS TREND IS BLENDING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A
STRONG TO SEVERE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THIS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE OUTER SHORE GULF WATERS AND THE QUESTION IS JUST
HOW FAR TO THE EAST THIS WILL TRAVEL. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT IT
WILL DIMINISH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST BUT THERE COULD
STILL BE A FEW STORMS THAT MOVE INTO COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY LATER
TONIGHT BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE A RATHER
TRANQUIL EVENING.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE SET THROUGH POSSIBLY TUESDAY
EVENING. TIDAL FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS PAST WEEKEND AND
EARLIER TODAY. FORECAST TIDAL LEVELS SHOW A SLIGHT RISE AT EACH
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WITH A SMALL NE SWELL IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE EXPECTATION OF TIDAL
FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL
BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. KEPT THE COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT FOR THE GULF COAST AS FLOODING IS FORECAST TO BE
SLIGHTLY LESS THERE.
WEATHERWISE, AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SOUTH FLORIDA IS
CURRENTLY SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN TWO TROUGHS, ONE CENTERED OVER THE
TX/LA BORDER AND THE OTHER ALONG 70W EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLAND
CHAIN. THIS PLACES SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WITH PATHETICALLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS. THE 500MB
TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING FROM THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING WAS -4C WHICH
IS THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR THIS DATE. THIS IS RESULTING IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE EVEN WITH A HIGH PWAT
VALUE OF WELL OVER 2" AND HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED THE POPS AND
CHANCES FOR THUNDER. THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN UPSTREAM MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND PICK UP THE GULF
TROUGH AND LIFT IT TO THE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THE ATLANTIC
TROUGH. THROUGH THIS PROCESS, THE MID AND UPPER FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL BECOME DEEP WESTERLY BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TYPICALLY, THIS WOULD YIELD THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS AFTERNOON STORMS BUILD OVER
THE INTERIOR AND MOVE EASTWARD. BUT IN THIS CASE, THE DEEPEST
LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PORTIONS AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO OUR WEST DRAWING MOISTURE
UP FROM THE TROPICAL REGIONS. SO IF SOME CLEARING COULD OCCUR
EITHER ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MORE MID LEVEL COOLING,
THEN THE PATTERN OF RAINFALL MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER
FORECASTS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...
THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA EITHER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS SOLUTION WITH THE
LATEST MEX GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS SHOWING DEW POINTS FALLING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE
FIRST TASTE OF FALL SOUTH FLORIDA STYLE? WE SHALL SEE. THE DRIER
AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
A SMALL NE SWELL WITH PERIOD NEAR 10 SEC IS FORECAST FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...ABOUT 1 FT OFF MIAMI-DADE TO 2-3 FT OFF THE
NORTHERN PALM BEACH COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH
PREDOMINANT DIRECTION OUT OF THE S-SE EARLY THIS WEEK...BECOMING
W-NW MID TO LATE WEEK. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 5 FT OFF THE NORTHERN
PALM BEACH COAST TODAY-TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING. LOWER SEAS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE SOUTH FL MARINE SERVICE AREA.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
FLZ168-172-173.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR FLZ168.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY...
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS TX AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NW BAHAMAS. STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE ERN GULF IS ALLOWING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF FL IN
AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS IN THE 2.1-2.4 INCH RANGE OF THE FL WEST
COAST. CLOSER TO HOME...CENTRAL FL SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING INDICATED
PWATS FROM 1.96 TO 1.98 INCHES AT TBW AND XMR. H5/H7 TEMPS WERE ON THE
WARM SIDE AROUND -5 TO -6 DEGS AT AT 500 MBS AND +9 TO +10 DEGS C AT
700 MBS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SE/ERN GULF OFF THE
FL WEST COAST THIS MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CIRRUS ACROSS E CENTRAL/SE FL WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING TODAY
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AS EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE INTERIOR IN EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 5
KNOTS IN THE SFC TO 10 KFT LAYER. WILL CONTINUE POPS IN THE SCATTERED
RANGE FROM 30 PCT NEAR THE COAST TO 40 PCT FOR THE INTERIOR.
&&
.COASTAL...A MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENT AT EAST CENTRAL FL BEACHES TODAY. THE LAST TWO HIGH TIDES
AT TRIDENT PIER AT PORT CANAVERAL HAVE REACHED 5.8 FT ABOVE MLLW...JUST
BELOW OUR LOCAL CRITERIA FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. TIDAL DEPARTURES
CONTINUE ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AS WE APPROACH THE FULL (SUPER) MOON
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE TO AGAIN HAVE ATLC TIDES REACH
THE BASE OF THE DUNES AT SOME OF OUR ATLC BEACHES.
UPCOMING HIGH TIDES...
DAYTONA BEACH SUNGLOW PIER 808 PM
PORT CANAVERAL, TRIDENT PIER 750 PM
SEBASTIAN INLET BRIDGE 803 PM
FORT PIERCE INLET SOUTH JETTY 820 PM
&&
.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL DVLP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE NEAR CSTL TERMINALS 16Z-18Z...AND PUSH INLAND TWD THE INTERIOR
19Z-23Z. MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE... LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ATLC WATERS WILL BECOME ENE AT 5-10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 3-5 FT IN A NORTHEAST SWELL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY... THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR IS AROUND 2.9 FT THIS
MORNING ABOUT 0.1 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HIGHER THAN NORMAL
HIGH TIDES DOWNSTREAM HAVE AFFECTED THE DISCHARGE RATE BACKING UP THE
RIVER LEVEL AT TIMES. A SLOW FALL IS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVIER RAIN NEAR THE BASIN MON AFTN AND TUE AFTN WHICH COULD
CAUSE MINOR RISES DEPENDING ON ANY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
VOLKMER/WEITLICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
505 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COMPLEX UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/DEEP SOUTHERN STATES
THIS MORNING. MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS STILL DISPLACED WELL TO
THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BY A SW TO NE ELONGATED UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. EAST OF
THIS RIDGE THE SAME BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WE DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT
REMAINS IN PLACE...ANCHORED BY A LARGE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN GULF HAS ACTED TO STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA/WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE INCREASING
GRADIENT IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS RESULTED IN A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET THAT IS
TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER
OUR HEADS. NOT THINKING WE WILL BE SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF SUNSHINE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS ACTUALLY QUITE
IMPRESSIVE. THE 27/00Z KTBW SOUNDING MEASURED A PW VALUE OF 2.14".
THIS VALUE IS OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS SHOW A FURTHER
INCREASE IN THE PW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.
AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS NO LESS COMPLEX THAN IT IS ALOFT.
LOOKING AT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WE HAVE A RIDGE SNEAKING DOWN
INTO GA/AL TO OUR NORTH...A WEAK LOW SPINNING TO NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND ANOTHER WEAK LOW/TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN IS PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. REGIONAL RADARS ARE QUIET OVER THE
PENINSULA...HOWEVER ENERGY ALOFT LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN EXPANDING
AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY
WEST OF OUR COAST THIS MORNING...HOWEVER TRENDS ARE MAKING ME
INCREASINGLY NERVOUS THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE A CLOSER
PASS TO THE SUNCOAST FROM LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO PINELLAS COUNTY
THAN WHAT THE NWP CONSENSUS...OR CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP HAVE CERTAINLY
TRENDED EASTWARD WITH THE PRECIP...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT STILL
KEEP THE MAJORITY OF ITS CONVECTIVE PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A VERY COMPLEX PATTERN...DEFINED BY LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...AS AN ILL-DEFINED
SURFACE LOW ENTERS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF AND MOVES NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL OR NORTHEAST GULF COAST. AS MENTIONED IN
THE SYNOPSIS...LEADING ENERGY ALOFT IS REALLY MAKING FOR SOME
ACTIVE CONVECTION OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A REAL POTENTIAL THAT POPS ALONG THE COAST MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED FOR LATER THIS MORNING IF CURRENT RADAR/CONVECTIVE TRENDS
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WITH THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...EVEN LATEST
RAP/HRRR...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY JUST OFFSHORE...AM
SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE MAKING A LARGE SWING TOWARD A WETTER
FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUCH IS THE NATURE OF METEOROLOGY. WE WORK
WITH INCOMPLETE DATA SETS. MOST OF THE TIME ITS SUFFICIENT...BUT
WITH LESS DEFINED SYSTEMS...WE CAN PLAY A GAME OF "CATCH UP" EVEN
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY
MIGHT BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
AND GIVE AS MUCH "HEAD UP" TIME ON ANY CHANGES TOWARD A WETTER
FORECAST FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS MORNING.
LETS SWITCH MODES AND TALK ABOUT THE LOW EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
GULF...AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON OUR AREA LATE TODAY INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE FOCUS SHOULD NOT BE ON WHETHER
THIS SYSTEM RECEIVES A NAME OR NOT. IT DOES NOT TAKE A NAMED
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND AFTER THE PAST TWO
MONTHS HERE IN WESTERN FLORIDA...ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS NOT WHAT WE NEED. THE WAY IT APPEARS NOW...THIS WILL
BE A VERY CLOSE CALL FOR OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL ZONES.
THE GENERAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE/SYNOPTIC LIFT WRAPPING AROUND ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS SYNOPTIC FORCING
EXTENDS. ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE A SIMILAR PATTERN...HOWEVER
SOME ALLOW THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVIER RAIN BANDS TO JUST MAKE IT
TO THE COAST OF THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT
JUST OFFSHORE. WITH THIS STILL BEING SUCH AN ILL-DEFINED
SYSTEM...IT IS SIMPLY IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WHAT
OUR COASTAL LAND ZONES WILL EXPERIENCE. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO REACH THE COAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT NOT GO QUITE AS ROBUST/PESSIMISTIC AS
THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS. THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A GENERAL
1-2" RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN
MIND THAT BANDS OF HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE COASTAL ZONES...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE
NATURE COAST. WOULD LIKE TO WAIT JUST A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE HOW
THE 12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE HANDLES EVERYTHING...HOWEVER FLOOD
WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT.
ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING HAS A BETTER
POTENTIAL TO STAY TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGH PW
ENVIRONMENT...AT LEAST SCT TO NMRS DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND DURATION OF
RAINFALL WILL BE LESS INLAND...RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE QUITE
HIGH.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A STRONG U/L LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL INDUCE DOWNSTREAM U/L RIDGING OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AS
THE U/L TROUGH OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IF THE U/L RIDGE WILL INITIALLY BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPRESS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF FROM
ADVECTING OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF ARE FURTHER EAST
WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK WITH AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SREF RETAINS A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM HOLDING THE
SURFACE LOW MUCH FURTHER WEST WHICH WOULD DELAY ONSET OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
EITHER WAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EARLY IN THE
LONG RANGE PERIOD WITH TIMING OF ONSET IN DOUBT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION WITH PCPW VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES
FOR SEVERAL PERIODS. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST U/L DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...U/L FORCING COMBINED WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. MANY RIVERS THAT HAD FINALLY FALLEN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE WILL AGAIN BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. COULD ALSO SEE TRAINING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE BOUNDARY SETTLES AND STALLS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DEEP
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE BOUNDARY.
L/W TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHEAST GULF
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DECREASING POPS. HOWEVER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING INCREASING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AROUND KLAL
TOWARD DAWN...NO SIGNIFICANT VIS/CIG RESTRICTION ARE ANTICIPATED
THIS MORNING. COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BY
MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH ALL TERMINALS POTENTIALLY
SEEING A PASSING STORM. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF FOR KSRQ/KTPA/KPIE
AND THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN FURTHER TAF PACKAGES.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL OR
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD
EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS
THE LOW MOVES CLOSER...WITH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED BY LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS WILL BE OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK.
THE FORECAST WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WET...AND BE DEFINED BY HIGH
RAIN CHANCES. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND LONGEST DURATION OF RAINFALL
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER EVEN INLAND
AREAS WILL SEE HIGH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING PASSING STORMS.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG OR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WILL BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 77 86 76 / 50 40 70 60
FMY 90 76 88 76 / 50 30 60 40
GIF 89 75 88 75 / 50 30 60 40
SRQ 87 77 85 77 / 50 40 80 60
BKV 89 74 87 73 / 50 40 70 60
SPG 88 77 86 77 / 50 40 80 60
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
407 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 11 pm EDT surface analysis showed a relatively strong ridge
building southward along the Piedmont, and a weak perturbation in
the easterlies across the FL Big Bend and south central GA. There
was a trough in the western Gulf of Mexico, associated with an upper
level low over east TX, and a broad area of low pressure across the
Yucatan Peninsula. While this system was being monitored for
tropical development, all of the deep moist convection associated
with it was to its east, in the northwest Caribbean Sea. There is
good agreement among the numerical guidance in bringing a portion of
this low slowly northward into the south central Gulf of Mexico
later this afternoon. Fortunately the current lack of organization
of this system, coupled with strong winds aloft, should limit
tropical development.
Deep layer moisture will increase to ample levels today. However,
any Q-G forcing will be limited to west of Tallahassee later this
afternoon, associated with the southerly mid-upper tropospheric flow
on the eastern flank of the aforementioned east TX low. We think the
GFS MOS PoPs are too high across GA today, and our PoP is much
closer to our local ECAM. Higher PoPs are also forecast across north
FL, as another perturbation in the low-layer easterlies propagates
westward late today. With mostly cloudy skies high temperatures will
"only" be in the lower to mid 80s.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
It has been some time since I`ve seen a set of forecasts continue
to be low confidence along with significant consistency issues
between the models. What clarity exists this cycle is largely that
each model ended up looking like its predecessor. So, there`s
still no overarching model consensus in the short term period. The
real discernible trend is that it is becoming less likely an
organized tropical system develops. It also is looking less
certain that an organized heavy rainfall threat will materialize.
The 27/00z NAM continued to be the westernmost of the guidance, so
was largely discounted. The 27/00z GFS looks like it had some
initialization issues with the energy over/near the Yucatan and
the 27/00z Euro is on the right side of the available guidance.
With all the disagreement, opted for a forecast solution that is
heavily weighted toward the previous forecast.
Rain chances will increase steadily tonight and into Monday. The
best concentration of lift and deep layer moisture should be
present on Monday across the area. It`s difficult to pinpoint
where, so oriented the PoP forecast in a north-south gradient as
it`s entirely possible the best forcing for ascent remains to the
south over the marine area, limiting both the inland coverage
and intensity of the rainfall.
By Monday night and into Tuesday as the upper low over the Western
Gulf shifts eastward, it should start to move whatever system we
have over the eastern Gulf off to the NE of the region and
gradually wind down the rain chances. Whether this happens as
quickly as depicted in the models is still uncertain, so kept
fairly high rain chances in through Tuesday afternoon, fairly
close to the average of the models.
There still is some potential for locally heavy rainfall,
especially for areas near the coast. This is supported by the
latest ECAM run. As we move a little closer to the onset of the
event hopefully future hi-res models will offer some better
agreement on this system.
.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
With the pattern across the Eastern CONUS to amplify as a trough
moves through the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid Atlantic
States by Wednesday, expect it to swing through our region on
Wednesday night greatly diminishing rain chances. Of course
there`s the expected differences between the Euro and GFS at
longer ranges, but the overall pattern suggests a drier forecast
for Thursday through Saturday as deep layer moisture is shifted to
the south and east of the forecast area.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Monday] The GFS and NAM MOS are forecasting cigs AOB
IFR at all terminals for much of the period, while the HRRR and
other high-resolution NWP guidance has MVFR cigs. MOS has not
verified that well in this weather pattern recently, so this TAF
package follows the other guidance more closely, with mostly MVFR
cigs through the period. SHRA are expected this afternoon at KECP.
Elsewhere the PoP is too low to mention in this package, but there
will be scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA in the FL Panhandle, Big
Bend, and southeast AL.
&&
.Marine...
Expect easterly winds to continue to slowly increase today and
reach advisory levels on Monday. As an area of disturbed weather
moves over the marine area during this time, expect widespread
showers and storms. Conditions will begin to slowly improve on
Tuesday with lighter winds returning by Wednesday.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Increasing rain chances may make it difficult to perform controlled
burns through mid week.
&&
.Hydrology...
Primary focus will continue to be on the approaching storm system
and the associated heavy rain threat. High-res guidance suggests
the threat for the heaviest rainfall will be nearer to the coast
and not as far inland as indicated yesterday. As a result, storm
total rainfall amounts for this event have been adjusted. Storm
total rainfall of 3 to 4 inches is anticipated across the Florida
Panhandle and into the Florida Big Bend with isolated heavier
totals possible. Further inland, rainfall amounts should generally
be around 2 inches.
With the heavier amounts nearer to the coast, area rivers will be
able to handle this event without reaching flood stage given the
recent dry conditions. With current streamflows, we`d need several
inches of rain to get into the upper portions of many of the
larger rivers and streams to produce river flooding - which is
something we don`t see happening with this particular event.
That being said, the fact that some of this rainfall could occur
quickly and over a short time period suggests a threat for
urbanized flash flooding. With low confidence in the placement of
the heaviest rain, and the onset not expected until Monday
afternoon, will defer a flash flood watch decision to the
afternoon shift so they can hopefully better refine the threat
area with the next couple of ECAM runs.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 83 73 82 73 83 / 50 70 80 80 60
Panama City 81 74 80 75 82 / 80 80 90 80 60
Dothan 81 70 79 71 79 / 40 50 70 70 60
Albany 82 70 82 72 80 / 30 50 70 70 60
Valdosta 83 72 83 73 84 / 40 50 80 70 60
Cross City 86 73 84 74 84 / 60 60 80 90 70
Apalachicola 80 76 81 77 82 / 70 80 90 80 60
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1025 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
IT APPEARS CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY....AND STALL NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST. SOME POSSIBILITIES OF
FAIR WEATHER RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
DIRECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE FA. THE SURFACE RIDGE AND EASTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA. INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING NORTH INTO THE
CSRA TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FA. OVERCAST SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL PROMOTE LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SW UPPER FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE WEST
GULF UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT EAST AS MAIN STREAM TROUGH DIGS
DOWN INTO THE E CONUS. WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
MOISTURE OVER THE GULF TO DRIFT NE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND SE
CONUS. LATEST MODELS APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT BEST UPPER LIFT AND
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD REMAIN
MAINLY JUST TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...BUT NONETHELESS HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BACK DOOR INTO THE REGION LATE WED/WED
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS THU/FRI WITH CUT-
OFF LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SW UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
REGION APPEAR WILL LEAD TO FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST...WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS
APPEARS TO KEEP OUR FA IN A COOL AND POSSIBLY WEAK WEDGE-LIKE NE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE PROVIDING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THU/FRI. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SAT/SUN WITH A ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...SUGGESTING MOISTURE
TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONG-FETCH ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF THE PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE
COAST OF THE NORTHEAST STATES AND LOW PRESSURE PUSHING NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT IFR OR LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND
NAM MOS. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. DRY AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
737 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
IT APPEARS CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY....AND STALL NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST. SOME POSSIBILITIES OF
FAIR WEATHER RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
DIRECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE FA. THE SURFACE RIDGE AND EASTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA. INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING NORTH INTO THE
CSRA TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FA. OVERCAST SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL PROMOTE LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SW UPPER FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE WEST
GULF UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT EAST AS MAIN STREAM TROUGH DIGS
DOWN INTO THE E CONUS. WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
MOISTURE OVER THE GULF TO DRIFT NE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND SE
CONUS. LATEST MODELS APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT BEST UPPER LIFT AND
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD REMAIN
MAINLY JUST TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...BUT NONETHELESS HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BACK DOOR INTO THE REGION LATE WED/WED
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS THU/FRI WITH CUT-
OFF LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SW UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
REGION APPEAR WILL LEAD TO FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST...WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS
APPEARS TO KEEP OUR FA IN A COOL AND POSSIBLY WEAK WEDGE-LIKE NE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE PROVIDING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THU/FRI. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SAT/SUN WITH A ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...SUGGESTING MOISTURE
TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONG-FETCH ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF THE PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE
COAST OF THE NORTHEAST STATES AND LOW PRESSURE PUSHING NORTHWARD
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT IFR OR LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND
NAM MOS. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. DRY AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
905 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
Skies are remaining partl to mostly cloudy with most of the clouds
to the southeast, south of I-72. In addition, radar showing very
light pcpn moving across southeast IL this evening. Believe this
will continue the remainder of the night. Showers and isolated
storms are moving across Iowa just behind the front that is still
forecast to move into the area early morning. Current forecast
looks good, but may do some minor tweaks to pops/wx in southeast
IL. Only adjustment will be to wording of wx in southeast to
scattered and isolated, instead of chance and slight chance.
Update will be out shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
Original shield of lower clouds has been contracting throughout the
day, and was basically limited to areas from Peoria to Chicago this
afternoon. Remainder of the CWA has seen clouds more of a diurnal
nature, which has allowed enough sunshine to get temperatures into
the lower 80s. So far the showers have remained extremely isolated.
Precipitation threat for the forecast area tonight will be coming
from a couple different directions. Across the southeast CWA, some
upper level energy will continue to surge northward up the
Mississippi River as the upper low over east Texas lifts northeast
and starts to open up. Showers should remain isolated this evening,
before rain chances start to ramp up late night as the energy gets
closer. Could be a rumble or two of thunder in the far southeast
late tonight, as the RAP shows lifted index values falling to near
zero, but chance is too small at the moment to include in the
forecast. Across the northwest CWA, the main player will be the cold
front which currently is pushing through northwest Iowa. Arrival of
the frontal boundary will be after 3 AM, and most of the rain will
be post-frontal, so will only carry some slight 20-30% PoP`s
northwest of the Illinois River late tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
A cold front will cross from near I-72 to start the day Tuesday to
near the southern tip of Illinois by evening. At the same time, low
pressure over the south central states will drift toward the
southeastern U.S., helping to combine enough moisture, lift, and
instability into mainly the southern half of Illinois for showers
and isolated thunderstorms. As a result...keeping chances for
showers/isolated thunder south of I-72 for Tuesday...with chances of
showers diminishing to the north through the day. Highs will
feature a strong gradient across central IL, ranging from the upper
60s in Galesburg to near 80 in Lawrenceville as cooler and drier air
moves in behind the front. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s to start
the day to slip into the low to mid 50s behind the front over
northern counties Tue afternoon. Breezy north-northeast winds behind
the front will increase...reaching 10-15 mph with gusts into the 20
mph range.
Fairly persistent high pressure will settle into the Great Lakes
Region for the remainder of the work week...promoting an extended
period of breezy northeast winds and mostly sunny skies. Highs will
be in the upper 60s and low 70s through Friday with lows mainly in
40s.
There remains fairly poor model agreement over the weekend into
early next week...with a weak trough passing through the region in
the GFS...but a building ridge into the Plains and upper Midwest in
the ECMWF. Neither would have a good chance for precipitation and
forecast is therefore dry. Both would feature lighter winds.
Temperatures likely will feature minimal trend through the weekend
and kept highs in the 60s and lows mid-upper 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Tuesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
Lots of mid clouds around 8kft still over the area, but based on
observation trends and satellite loops, believe the lower mid
clouds will dissipate quickly this evening and leave higher mid
clouds or high clouds over the area remainder of the night. So
will go with mid clouds around 12-15kft for the night with light
and variable winds. Then tomorrow, after the front has moved
through, scattered showers will be possible at all sites and winds
will increase out of the north-northeast...behind the front. With
light pcpn and vis decreasing, expecting MVFR cigs below 3kft at
all sites during the day tomorrow.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
247 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Cloud cover remains fairly extensive across the area today, with the
earlier breaks near the I-74 corridor quickly filling in late
morning with diurnal cumulus. A few showers have been tracking
northwest out of southern Illinois, associated with what is left of
the upper low over the Tennessee Valley.
Forecast soundings not really showing much in the way of clearing
this evening, with skies mainly partly to mostly cloudy. A feature
of interest is overnight, with the last few runs of the RAP showing
a surge of stratus advecting northeast into our area after midnight
and covering most of the state, along with some dense fog late in
the night. The latest NAM model favors more of a patchy fog
scenario, which would seem more likely given the lack of widespread
clearing plus not much of a wind field to advect the low clouds into
this area, so will continue with mention of patchy fog for now.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
While by no means certain at this point, a bit more clarity has
started to develop in the forecast for the remainder of the week.
Above normal temperatures are expected to linger for a couple more
days, then trend toward normal in the wake of Tuesday`s cold front,
with below normal temperatures possible by the weekend as some
degree of upper troffing develops across eastern North America. The
model consensus has also trended back toward a drier solution for
the week, with the best chances of rainfall occurring in the
vicinity of the frontal passage on Tuesday.
Maintained a very low chance for rainfall on Monday as weak
disturbances track northeast up the Ohio River Valley from the Gulf
of Mexico. However, the very modest forcing and instability support
little more than we are currently seeing across southern Illinois
today as far as coverage and intensity.
A cold front, currently extending from northern Ontario into the
central Plains, will sink southeast across the forecast area later
Monday night into Tuesday. This front will not have much going for
it as far as support for precipitation production. The best forcing
will remain across Canada with the faster upper-level flow, with the
best moisture bottled up with a system along the Gulf coast. So,
plan to keep PoPs on the low side with fropa, and it is entirely
possible that most locations will remain dry. However, this appears
to be our best shot for widespread rainfall this week.
A Canadian surface high builds into the area behind the cold front,
which should help shave several degrees of the daily max/min
temperatures. Aloft, the flow across North America is expected to
transition from mostly zonal to more of a troffy pattern. However,
exactly how the upper pattern will look by late week and how we`ll
get there is still very much up for debate. Model spread remain
significant, with the spaghetti plots looking much like a pile of
spaghetti. There does not appear to be a strong signal for rainfall
at any one time, although there is some consensus that it is
possible over the weekend. Expect the weekend to be more dry than
not, but there will certainly be some risk of rain. We`ll have to
see how the models eventually resolve the coming pattern shift to
pin point the threat better.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Fairly large area of IFR/MVFR conditions across the southern
quarter of Illinois at midday, spreading north-northwest.
Starting to see some scattered clouds below 3000 feet in central
Illinois as well, including some MVFR conditions at KPIA which
saw diurnal cumulus develop recently. Latest mesoscale models do
not show the low cloud shield in southern Illinois making much
further progress, but some brief MVFR conditions are possible in
our area the next few hours.
Main period of concern is overnight. Moisture surge from the south
is increasing the atmospheric moisture, and the latest RAP model
is suggesting a large area of stratus below 1,000 feet overspreading
the area from the southwest after 06Z. Probability guidance from
the SREF shows this, although a bit further west (mainly KPIA-KSTL
westward). Most of the other guidance is not that pessimistic,
but does bring at least MVFR conditions everywhere. Right now,
will lean more toward the MVFR scenario as winds stay up a bit,
but will need to watch closely. Any lower ceilings are likely to
linger until about 14-15Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Currently seeing some temporary breaks in the cloud cover from
about Galesburg to Terre Haute, but am expecting these to fill in
over the next couple hours. Nice moisture surge occurring up the
Mississippi River valley around the circulation of an upper low
near Houston, with precipitable water values around 1.5 inches
spreading into our area, so any breaks should be filled by diurnal
clouds forming with the added moisture. Currently seeing some
scattered showers near the I-64 corridor in southeast Illinois
moving northwest, and latest high-resolution models continue to
show a few showers through the afternoon spreading into central
Illinois, so will maintain the 20% PoP`s.
No change made to forecast high temperatures, but will need to
watch this closely as the thicker cloud cover may require this to
be adjusted down a tad.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
The upper low that was over central Tennessee yesterday morning at
this time has really become diffuse on satellite data with several
weak circulations noted to our south, with little evidence any of
them are heading in our direction today. The clouds that finally
pushed into the central and northwest sections of our forecast area
late yesterday have temporarily decreased in areal coverage early
this morning. However, forecast soundings thru the day suggest quite
a bit more moisture located in the 950-850 mb layer to work with so
any breaks this morning should quickly fill in with daytime heating.
As far as precip is concerned, with the increase in low level
moisture and model data suggesting Precipitable water values of
around 1.5 inches over the entire area, isolated showers will be
possible as temps warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s this
afternoon.
High res model reflectivity simulations do show some widely
scattered showers across the area for a time this afternoon, before
quickly dissipating just before sunset. The further south into the
forecast area you go, the better the chances of seeing an isolated
shower or two this afternoon, as this particular part of the
forecast area will be a bit closer to the weak forcing associated
with what is left of the upper wave to our southeast. As a result,
will keep the slight chance wording for areas south of a Rushville
to Champaign line for mainly this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Will linger a slight chance of showers over southeast IL early this
evening with weak upper level system to our southeast. Then with
loss of diurnal influence after sunset, think dry weather will
prevail across area with patchy fog possible northern areas later
tonight into early Monday morning. Still think better chances of fog
will be further north over northern IL into WI as has been the case
the past few nights where less cloud cover. Lows tonight in the
lower 60s. On Monday continue slight chance of showers in eastern IL
from late morning into the afternoon hours with lingering influence
of weak upper level wave over the ohio river valley. Skies to trend
partly sunny on Monday with warmer highs in the lower 80s.
00Z forecast models have trended a bit quicker with cold front
pushing southward into northern IL Monday night. Have added slight
chances of showers north of Peoria overnight Monday night. Front
then slides southward across central and southeast IL on Tue with 20-
30% chances of showers. Instability appears weak with the passage of
this front on Tue and only have isolated thunder in southeast IL Tue
afternoon where better timing of front during heat of the day. Plus
shower chances appear post frontal/behind the front so thunderstorm
chances would be less than. Highs Tue range from near 70F at
Galesburg to lower 80s south of I-72 with mid 80s near
Lawrenceville. Have isolated showers southern areas Tue evening then
think we will have a dry and cooler period as high pressure settles
into the Midwest. Lows Tue night range from upper 40s to near 50F
over IL river valley, to the mid to upper 50s in southeast IL.
Cooler highs Wed in the low to mid 70s with Galesburg near or
just shy of 70F.
An upper level trof digs over the eastern states later this week and
temps to trend closer to normal during 2nd half of week with highs
in the low to mid 70s and a few upper 60s northern areas at times.
Rain chances look less with this model suite and have trimmed pops
down to either dry or just a few slight chances in mainly
western/SW areas later this week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Fairly large area of IFR/MVFR conditions across the southern
quarter of Illinois at midday, spreading north-northwest.
Starting to see some scattered clouds below 3000 feet in central
Illinois as well, including some MVFR conditions at KPIA which
saw diurnal cumulus develop recently. Latest mesoscale models do
not show the low cloud shield in southern Illinois making much
further progress, but some brief MVFR conditions are possible in
our area the next few hours.
Main period of concern is overnight. Moisture surge from the south
is increasing the atmospheric moisture, and the latest RAP model
is suggesting a large area of stratus below 1,000 feet overspreading
the area from the southwest after 06Z. Probability guidance from
the SREF shows this, although a bit further west (mainly KPIA-KSTL
westward). Most of the other guidance is not that pessimistic,
but does bring at least MVFR conditions everywhere. Right now,
will lean more toward the MVFR scenario as winds stay up a bit,
but will need to watch closely. Any lower ceilings are likely to
linger until about 14-15Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
356 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AIR TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LAST HOUR WITH SOME
VARIABLE WINDS...BUT MOSTLY NE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. OUR 88D RADAR IS
SHOWING A GOOD BOUNDARY LOW LEVEL FORCING OR COOL POOL OF 70S IF
YOUR WILL TO OUR SOUTH...MIXING WARMER AS IT MOVES NW. A FEW
SHOWERS IN OUR AREA ARE OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS AND SOME BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER TOLEDO BEND MOVING NW IN SAM RAYBURN.
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL
BEND...ELONGATING OVER THE COAST. VERY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
PILING INTO THE SABINE PASS. WE WILL KEEP ON AN EYE ON THIS
PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS A GREAT DEAL MORE PANCAKING CUMULUS ALONG
I-30 NOW UNDER THE WARM NOSE...WHILE MULTI DECKS ARE PILING INTO
THE I-20 CORRIDOR ERODING THE CAP. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
OUR NEXT SOUNDING. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER SW OKLAHOMA YESTERDAY
IS NOW PRETTY MUCH THE NEW BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST GULF AS UNFOLDING
PATTERN REMAINS AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS CLOSE OFF THE LOW
TONIGHT WITH REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AROUND 5780M OR SO FOR THE 500
MB LEVEL. SOME NOCTURNAL COVERAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE CORE
WHICH COULD BRUSH OUR SOUTHERN TIER WITH CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING
THE LOWER LEVELS.
AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW KEEPS WRAPPING UP TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PILE IN...AND ERODED THE CAP. FORCING IS
FAIR TO DECENT WITH A DEEPENING SOUTHEAST FLOW BOUND TO BE
PRODUCTIVE SOMEWHERE...EVEN UNDER THE INVERSION IF IT CAN BE
LIFTED. SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT WITH HRRR MODEL
SPOTTY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH SOME ISOLATED EVEN ALONG I-30.
ALL THE MODELS AND WPC QPF LOOK ENCOURAGING.
THE OVER RAIN CHANCE LOOKS FAIR TO AWESOME FOR A LUCKY FEW AT
LEAST. HOPEFULLY...AS THE LOW WORKS BACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
AREA WE CAN MAKE MOST OF THAT NOCTURNAL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. WE
HAVE SLIGHT TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20 FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW WRAPS UP. THE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS THE DRY SLOT AND ALL THE DRY AIR OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WHICH IS SCOURING OUT THE GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE WATER VAPOR WILL BE INDICATIVE AS
THE SURFACE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON TO NE WINDS.
OUR 88D VAD IS SHOWING ENE TO 7KFT AND THEN ALL SOUTHEAST
ALOFT...HOWEVER MAINTAINING RIGHT AT THAT CAP THIS AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT OF AN OVERRUNNING PRECIP TYPE MAY UNFOLD IF THE CAP
ERODES WITH ONLY A SHALLOW NE SFC FLOW LEFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THUS THE LUCKY FEW AT LEAST. OUR HOPE IS TO JUST GO AHEAD BLOW
THE DRIEST MONTH RECORD AND SEE THE WPC QPF AND MORE AS THE WARM
AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE FOUR STATE AREA ALL TO SOON BY
MIDWEEK. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 87 70 87 / 30 50 30 50
MLU 70 85 69 86 / 30 60 30 50
DEQ 65 86 67 86 / 10 20 20 40
TXK 67 85 68 85 / 20 40 30 40
ELD 66 84 66 84 / 30 50 30 50
TYR 69 87 69 87 / 20 40 20 40
GGG 68 86 69 88 / 20 40 30 40
LFK 67 85 69 87 / 40 50 30 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1116 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ADD A BIT OF CLOUDS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE MORNING CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED HEATING A BIT FROM LUFKIN
TO SHREVEPORT...TO MINDEN AND NEAR RUSTON. UPPER 70S ARE JUST A
TAD BEHIND THE GOING 16Z FORECAST GRIDDED DATA. LEADING EDGES ARE
ALREADY CHANGING WITH HEATING ON THE FRINGES. NO CHANGES NEEDED
TO EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS AT THIS TIME...JUST PERHAPS HOW SOON WE
ARRIVE. THE SHORT RANGE HRRR MODEL IS QUITE REASONABLE WITH
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE DAY ON QPF AND CURRENT POPS REFLECT THIS
WELL. UPDATE SENT FOR SKY ONLY. WE MAY EVEN CLEAN UP MORNING
WORDING AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. /24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/
AVIATION...
INCREASED MOISTURE TODAY TO ALLOW FOR VFR CEILINGS AREA WIDE BY
28/00Z. SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD ALSO SEE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS TXK/ELD THIS MORNING
AND LFK/MLU/ED ON MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS 5
TO 8 KNOTS TO PREVAIL TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. /05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SE TX COAST. A
SFC LOW IS ALSO IN THE VICINITY JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH INTO THE
REGION BY THESE TWO FEATURES. AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-30 TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW
TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST. BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA. THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE
LESS THAN AN INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL BUT THE RICH GULF MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY AREAS THAT MAY
EXPERIENCE PROLONGED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BUT A FEW LINGER SHWRS/TSTMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SRN PLAINS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR A FEW
DAYS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT OUR FIRST FALL
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS ARE
QUITE DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. THE
GFS IS MUCH QUICKER AND ACTUALLY DIGS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH
SOUTH INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
TROUGH MUCH FARTHER NORTH. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS PRESENT SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP CHANCES SO WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. CLOUD COVER AND THE SHWRS/TSTMS MAY COOL TEMPS BACK INTO THE
MID 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT CLEARING SKIES AND THE UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM-UP BACK INTO THE 90S BY
WEDNESDAY. /09/
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 89 67 88 69 / 20 20 40 20
MLU 89 67 86 68 / 30 30 50 40
DEQ 87 65 87 65 / 10 10 20 20
TXK 88 65 87 67 / 10 20 30 20
ELD 88 65 86 66 / 20 20 50 30
TYR 91 67 88 68 / 10 20 30 20
GGG 90 66 88 68 / 10 20 40 20
LFK 86 68 85 67 / 30 30 50 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/05/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1147 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA. TROF IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SFC COLD FRONTS. FIRST IS
MOVING ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI ATTM WHILE THE SECOND WHICH MARKS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NOTABLY COLDER AIR RUNS FROM JAMES BAY TO JUST W
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IMPROVED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN UNDERNEATH HAS
SUPPORTED AN EXPANSION OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE
LEAD COLD FRONT TODAY...THOUGH THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH THUNDER THIS
AFTN AFTER AN INCREASE DURING THE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING COLD FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN
S AND E THIS EVENING. WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PCPN
FIELDS...UTILIZED A COMBINATION OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND RADAR TRENDS
TO CONSTRUCT POP GRIDS THRU THE EVENING. LINGERING UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK AS WELL AS SECOND SFC COLD FRONT
SWEEPING SE MAY GENERATE A FEW -SHRA BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN
TIED MORE CLOSELY TO FIRST COLD FRONT. THUS...SOME LOW POPS WILL BE
CARRIED AS LATE AS THE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL/SE.
OTHERWISE...COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS CURRENTLY AT 10-13C WILL FALL TO -1C OVER THE
KEWEENAW TO 7C FAR SCNTRL BY 12Z TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH
COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND 40F AND PROBABLY
INTO THE UPPER 30S AT SOME HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER W AND NW
UPPER MI. HIGHEST MINS WILL BE NEAR LAKE MI...UPPER 40S/AROUND 50F.
ALTHOUGH THE SFC-850MB DELTA-T BTWN THE LAKE WATERS STILL IN THE
MID/UPR 50S F IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE CLOUDS/PCPN...FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY. SO...THE
CHILLY AIR FLOW OVER THE LAKE PROBABLY WON`T SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN
SCT CLOUDS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT.
850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT -1 TO -2C TUE MORNING. WITH FCST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOWING A VERY DRY AIR MASS FLOWING INTO THE UPPER LAKES...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. IF ANYTHING...THE
MOISTENING PROVIDED BY THE LAKE MAY PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER INLAND FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS ON
THE MOISTURE. SHOULDN`T BE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F AND A RATHER BRISK NW WIND...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH
WILL BE THE FIRST STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR QUITE A
WHILE /AT LEAST 10 DAYS/.
WE BEGIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGE SFC HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N
QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH LOWER MI AND THE MS DELTA. FOR UPPER MI
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW IS FIGURED ALOFT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN WEATHER
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE W HALF...MINUS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE POSTED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA IF
THE CURRENT FCST HOLDS TRUE. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO LOWS OF
27-35F...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. STAY TUNED
AS WINDS WILL BE CALM...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPS TO FALL
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST. 850MB TEMPS WILL E
IN THE -1C RANGE OVER THE KEWEENAW E THROUGH THE N TIER COUNTIES...TO
AS WARM AS 1.5-3C OVER MENOMINEE COUNTY /WARMEST OFF THE GFS/.
FCST MODELS DO SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SET UP ACROSS S
MANITOBA AT 00Z THURSDAY...BUT THE OVERALL STRENGTH IS DIFFERENT.
THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL GO ON ITS OWN...AND BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE...WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT NE MORE INTO
QUEBEC...THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVERHEAD.
ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE KEWEENAW SUNDAY...AND MAINLY
JUST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT
WILL NOT INCREASE THE POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS
A DEEPER 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC RETROGRADING AS CLOSE AS THE E HALF
OF QUEBEC BY 18Z SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AND IS
MORE FOCUSED ON THE S 500MB LOW SPINNING OVER THE SE STATES. WILL
KEEP A GENERAL BLEND UNTIL A MORE CONCRETE SOLUTION APPEARS. EITHER
WAY...COOL WEATHER AND A MAINLY N FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS UPPER
MI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 25KT.
INCOMING CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
TONIGHT/TUE. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
WITH ONE COLD FRONT EXITING LAKE SUPERIOR NOW...A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. PRES RISES ALONG WITH INCREASING
OVERWATER INSTABILITY AS COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL
RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT TONIGHT AFTER THE SECOND
COLD FRONT PASSES. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WRN
LAKE AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT W TO E TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE UPPER
LAKES. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE ENE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...IT
WILL EXTEND A RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE
THE RIDGE MAY BE SITUATED A LITTLE FARTHER N THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...EASTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME BRISK INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT
TIMES DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR MIZ002-004-009-010-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
820 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA. TROF IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SFC COLD FRONTS. FIRST IS
MOVING ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI ATTM WHILE THE SECOND WHICH MARKS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NOTABLY COLDER AIR RUNS FROM JAMES BAY TO JUST W
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IMPROVED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN UNDERNEATH HAS
SUPPORTED AN EXPANSION OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE
LEAD COLD FRONT TODAY...THOUGH THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH THUNDER THIS
AFTN AFTER AN INCREASE DURING THE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING COLD FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN
S AND E THIS EVENING. WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PCPN
FIELDS...UTILIZED A COMBINATION OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND RADAR TRENDS
TO CONSTRUCT POP GRIDS THRU THE EVENING. LINGERING UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK AS WELL AS SECOND SFC COLD FRONT
SWEEPING SE MAY GENERATE A FEW -SHRA BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN
TIED MORE CLOSELY TO FIRST COLD FRONT. THUS...SOME LOW POPS WILL BE
CARRIED AS LATE AS THE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL/SE.
OTHERWISE...COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS CURRENTLY AT 10-13C WILL FALL TO -1C OVER THE
KEWEENAW TO 7C FAR SCNTRL BY 12Z TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH
COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND 40F AND PROBABLY
INTO THE UPPER 30S AT SOME HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER W AND NW
UPPER MI. HIGHEST MINS WILL BE NEAR LAKE MI...UPPER 40S/AROUND 50F.
ALTHOUGH THE SFC-850MB DELTA-T BTWN THE LAKE WATERS STILL IN THE
MID/UPR 50S F IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE CLOUDS/PCPN...FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY. SO...THE
CHILLY AIR FLOW OVER THE LAKE PROBABLY WON`T SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN
SCT CLOUDS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT.
850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT -1 TO -2C TUE MORNING. WITH FCST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOWING A VERY DRY AIR MASS FLOWING INTO THE UPPER LAKES...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. IF ANYTHING...THE
MOISTENING PROVIDED BY THE LAKE MAY PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER INLAND FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS ON
THE MOISTURE. SHOULDN`T BE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F AND A RATHER BRISK NW WIND...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH
WILL BE THE FIRST STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR QUITE A
WHILE /AT LEAST 10 DAYS/.
WE BEGIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGE SFC HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N
QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH LOWER MI AND THE MS DELTA. FOR UPPER MI
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW IS FIGURED ALOFT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN WEATHER
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE W HALF...MINUS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE POSTED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA IF
THE CURRENT FCST HOLDS TRUE. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO LOWS OF
27-35F...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. STAY TUNED
AS WINDS WILL BE CALM...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPS TO FALL
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST. 850MB TEMPS WILL E
IN THE -1C RANGE OVER THE KEWEENAW E THROUGH THE N TIER COUNTIES...TO
AS WARM AS 1.5-3C OVER MENOMINEE COUNTY /WARMEST OFF THE GFS/.
FCST MODELS DO SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SET UP ACROSS S
MANITOBA AT 00Z THURSDAY...BUT THE OVERALL STRENGTH IS DIFFERENT.
THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL GO ON ITS OWN...AND BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE...WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT NE MORE INTO
QUEBEC...THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVERHEAD.
ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE KEWEENAW SUNDAY...AND MAINLY
JUST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT
WILL NOT INCREASE THE POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS
A DEEPER 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC RETROGRADING AS CLOSE AS THE E HALF
OF QUEBEC BY 18Z SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AND IS
MORE FOCUSED ON THE S 500MB LOW SPINNING OVER THE SE STATES. WILL
KEEP A GENERAL BLEND UNTIL A MORE CONCRETE SOLUTION APPEARS. EITHER
WAY...COOL WEATHER AND A MAINLY N FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS UPPER
MI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
INCOMING DRIER AIR BEHIND INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED
SHOWERS EAST AND CLEAREDG OUT LOW CLOUDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. BEHIND
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX
WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 25KT. INCOMING CHILLY AIR MASS
WILL BE VERY DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TONIGHT/TUE. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
WITH ONE COLD FRONT EXITING LAKE SUPERIOR NOW...A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. PRES RISES ALONG WITH INCREASING
OVERWATER INSTABILITY AS COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL
RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT TONIGHT AFTER THE SECOND
COLD FRONT PASSES. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WRN
LAKE AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT W TO E TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE UPPER
LAKES. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE ENE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...IT
WILL EXTEND A RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE
THE RIDGE MAY BE SITUATED A LITTLE FARTHER N THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...EASTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME BRISK INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT
TIMES DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR MIZ002-004-009-010-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
717 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 60
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. STILL EXPECT A
BAND OF PREDOMINANTLY RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE CHARACTER OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE ESRL
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LESS COVERAGE THAN THE
OPERATIONAL NCEP HRRR DOES. INCLUDED THUNDER FOR OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
AS SPC MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE GREATER
THAN 1000 J PER KG EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI INTO
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MI. OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL BE LOW AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WELL AFTER
PEAK INSOLATION.
NO CONCERNS AFTER THIS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
DECIDED TO KEEP THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
CAVEATS TO THIS. FIRST...WITH SOMEWHAT MOIST H1000-H850 NE FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY COMBINED WITH DECREASING H850
TEMPS...THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD
CENTRAL LOWER MI DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
NOT INDICATING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP COMING OFF THE LAKE...BUT IT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE AS WE GET CLOSER.
SECOND...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SENDING MIXED SIGNALS ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PRESENTLY IN THE GULF AS WELL AS TD 11 EAST OF FLORIDA.
LAST NIGHT`S GEM SOLUTION BROUGHT THE GULF SYSTEM RIGHT INTO
MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOT ON THE 12Z RUN. THE
LATEST ECMWF BRINGS TD 11 NORTH AND THEN ABRUPTLY WEST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A PRECIP SHIELD AS FAR
WEST AS LOWER MI BY SATURDAY. THIS IS A DEVIATION FROM THE PRIOR RUN
AS WELL AS OTHER MODEL RUNS. THERE IS NO CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKING INTO OUR REGION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY.
THE GFS AND FIM ARE INDICATING SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 15-20 KTS
COMING OFF LAKE HURON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...IMPACTING AREAS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF US 131. WITH H850 WINDS OF AROUND 25 KTS...THIS
SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE AS WE SHOULD BE MIXING TO AROUND THAT
HEIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NO FURTHER GIVEN THE CAA UNDERWAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE 60 FOR MANY AREAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...IT WILL
CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE OCTOBER HAS ARRIVED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR TILL AROUND 09Z. AFTER
THAT A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH MVFR/IRF CIGS AND A BAND OF
SHOWERS THAT IS ABOUT 2 HOURS WIDE. THERE WILL BE A SLOW CLEARING
BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST AREA WILL BE SOLID VFR BY 18Z. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT TOO.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED WINDS
AND WAVES WILL PERSIST MOST OF TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
WINDS...WAVES...AND TIMING IS MARGINALLY GOOD. LATEST WAVEWATCH 3
RUN IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS RUN. AS NOTED BEFORE...
THE WHITEHALL TO GRAND HAVEN AREA MAY BE SHELTERED FROM THE LARGER
WAVES BY THE SABLE POINTS TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE LEFT THIS AREA OUT
OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. THIS ADMITTEDLY MAY BE A BIT TOO PRECISE
THIS FAR OUT...SO THIS AREA COULD GET ADDED TO THE ADVISORY WITH
FUTURE UPDATES.
A LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT HIGHER WAVES WILL PERSIST CONSIDERABLY
LONGER SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN WITH THE FAVORABLE FETCH...ALLOWING
POINTS FARTHER NORTH TO SEE AN EARLIER CANCELLATION. 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES COULD END UP PERSISTING WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND
SOUTH HAVEN AND POINTS FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE AN
EXTENSION IN TIME OF THIS ADVISORY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
CURRENT STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
ARE BOTH RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORECAST...
AS LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ844>846-848-849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID/UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SW TO SE CANADA WHILE A TROF IS
PROGRESSING THRU WRN CANADA. AT THE SFC...THE TROF IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL SD ACROSS FAR NW MN TO HUDSON BAY.
SW FLOW BTWN THE COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST HAS LED TO ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE SEPT DAY
TODAY. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...AROUND 80F. FOG/STRATUS THAT WAS OVER CNTRL UPPER MI
EARLY THIS MORNING BURNED OFF BY LATE MORNING. STRATOCU THAT WAS
OVER IL/SE WI/LAKE MI EARLY TODAY HAS SPREAD N. WHILE STILL S OF
KMNM...THE AREA OF MOISTURE HAS LED TO MORE CLOUD COVER FROM AROUND
KISQ/KERY EASTWARD. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.
DURING THE SHORT TERM...FOCUS WILL BE ON CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING
FOR VIEWING LUNAR ECLIPSE AND THEN PCPN POTENTIAL AS WRN CANADA TROF
CONTINUES EASTWARD...PUSHING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MON.
WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING...MODELS SHOW WINDS IN THE APPROACHING
CLOUD BEARING LAYER (ROUGHLY 875-850MB) VEERING SOME TONIGHT.
THUS...THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF THE STRATOCU APPROACHING FROM S
SHOULD TEND TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH TIME. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF AN IRON MTN TO
MUNISING LINE WILL HAVE THE MOST CLOUD COVER...POTENTIALLY OBSCURING
MUCH OF THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS EVENING AT A FEW LOCATIONS. NAM IN
PARTICULAR IS AGGRESSIVE IN MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS BLO STRATOCU
LAYER FARTHER TO THE W...BUT DON`T THINK THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING EVEN IF IT IS CORRECT WITH THE
MOISTURE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE ONLY VERY
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN TIMING FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...
REACHING THE W EARLY MON MORNING AND EXITING THE SE LATE AFTN.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SCT/CHC POPS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W. BIGGER
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER THE UPPER JET CONFIGURATION WITH
RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN UNDERNEATH
WILL BE SUFFICENT TO HELP DEVELOP A HEAVIER/MORE SOLID BAND OF SHRA
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA MON. THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF IMPROVED FORCING LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SCNTRL AND ERN
FCST AREA MON AFTN. WITH THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE LATEST RAP RUN
ENDING AT 12Z MON APPEARING TO SUPPORT THAT IDEA AS IT HAS STRONGER
FORCING DEVELOPING TO THE W AT THE END OF THE MODEL RUN...WILL RAISE
POPS FOR MON...ESPECIALLY SCNTRL AND E WHERE LIKELY/NMRS WILL BE
UTILIZED LATE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
INCLUDE MENTION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS THAT
MAY GRAZE FAR SERN UPPER MI IN THE FEW FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z TUE.
THESE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE W AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD ON TUE. 18Z 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW 0C...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND E WILL MAKE THAT FEEL A BIT CHILLIER. WILL INCREASE
CLOUD COVER OVER THE E NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
SHOULD RESULT...BUT WILL ALSO SHOW CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH AIR CONTINUES TO INTRUDE.
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER TUE NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 0C.
PWATS DROP TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER AN ALREADY COOL DAY WILL MAKE FOR VERY
COLD LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S...COLDEST INTERIOR OF
COURSE. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS
VALUES ARE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH LOOKS GOOD. FROST
APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EVEN SOME SHORELINE AREAS.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE E ON WED...AS WILL THE 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR 1-2 DEGREE WARMER MAX TEMPS THAN ON
TUE...HIGHS AROUND 60.
CONTINUED TO NOTE WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SAW IN MODEL
TRENDS...DRYER WEATHER FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. CAN NOT BE TOO
CONFIDENT...THOUGH...GIVEN VERY POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE
PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL TREND THE FORECAST DRYER. TEMPS LOOK
TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR THE LAST HALF. MIN TEMPS WILL BE TRICKIER
GIVEN THE GREATER RELIANCE ON CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WED NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST WITH LOWS
POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND AND WARMER NEAR THE SHORE.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST WED NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO GET CLOSER
BEFORE ADDING THAT TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
THRU THE AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BUILDING MIXED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
GUSTY S TO SW WINDS TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTN. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE RESULTANT
STABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN LLWS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING
AND EARLY AFTN...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF -SHRA. AROUND THE TIME OF
FROPA OR JUST AFTER...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. SHOULDN`T LAST
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HRS AT EACH TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...S TO SW WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL GUST TO AROUND 25KT TONIGHT...BUT UP TO 30KT AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
TONIGHT AND MON...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE W TO NW WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 20KT. AN UPTICK IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT/TUE
TO 20-30KT...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR FLOWING OVER THE
LAKE AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO
UNDER 15KT W TO E TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE UPPER
LAKES. THE HIGH PRES WILL THEN DRIFT TO THE ENE WED THRU FRI...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS A RESULT...WHILE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME...SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY 20KT OR LESS
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
159 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT UPR
RDG STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE GREAT LKS AND SE CANADA.
SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING W FM HI CENTER NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND DRY MID
LVLS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS IS BRINGING MOCLR SKIES/DRY WX TO THE CWA
EARLY THIS MRNG. 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS DID SHOW SOME RELATIVELY SHALLOW
MSTR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN...SO SOME PATCHY FOG/LO CLDS HAVE FORMED
OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA WITH LLVL SSE FLOW OFF LK MI. WHERE THIS
LLVL FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING OVER THE FAR W...TEMPS ARE NEAR AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM 60 DEGREES DESPITE MOCLR SKIES. LOOKING FARTHER TO
THE W...SOME HI CLDS ARE ROLLING E THRU MN WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD
FNT MOVING E THRU MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER
SHEARED SHRTWV NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. OF GREATER INTEREST
IS AREA OF HI BASED SC OVER THE LOWER LKS THAT IS MOVING NWD THRU
SRN LK MI/SW LOWER MI/SE WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/LO CLDS THIS
MRNG...HOW FAR TO THE NW AREA OF CLDS IN THE LOWER LKS MIGHT SPREAD
AND POPS LATE TNGT AHEAD OF COLD FNT NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS/SCENTRAL
CANADA.
TODAY...WITH LENGTHENING NIGHT AND LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z
GRB/APX RAOBS...EXPECT FOG/LO CLDS OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA TO EXPAND
EARLY THIS MRNG BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE MRNG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OF THE SHORTER TERM MODELS INDICATE AREA OF HIER H85
RH ASSOCIATED WITH SC MOVING TO THE N WL AT LEAST BRUSH THE SE CWA.
AFTER THE MRNG FOG/STRATUS DSPT...EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL
CU/SC TO IMPACT THE SE COUNTIES AS SOME OF THIS MSTR ADVECTS OVER
THE AREA. WHERE SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY OVER THE NW HALF...H85 TEMPS
RISING TO ARND 14C WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN
THE LO 80S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. WITH MORE CLDS AND
THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI OVER THE SE...MAX TEMPS THERE WL HOLD
NEAR 70. THE GREATER HEATING OVER ESPECIALLY THE NW HALF WL MIX 25-
30 KT WINDS TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25 MPH.
IN CONCERT WITH MIN RH FALLING TO ARND 40 PCT...THESE GUSTY WINDS WL
AGGRAVATE FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN
SGNFT RAIN RECENTLY.
TNGT...AS RATHER SHEARED OUT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TO NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z
MON...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA ARND 12Z.
SHEARED NATURE OF THE DISTURBANCE...ARRIVAL OF THE FNT DURING PERIOD
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WEAKER UPR DVGC THAN INDICATED BY SOME RECENT
MODEL RUNS AND MARGINAL MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT WL LIMIT POPS
INTO THE CHC RANGE AND ACCOMPANYING RA TOTALS. THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS FOR VIEWING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS
EVNG...AREAS AWAY FM THE AT LEAST THE SE HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOCLR IN THE EVNG BEFORE MORE CLDS ROLL IN AFTER MIDNGT AHEAD
OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE AT
SPREADING THE LLVL MSTR INTO THE CENTRAL...BUT VEERING SFC-H85 FLOW
FCST BTWN 00Z-06Z SHOULD LIMIT THE NW EXPANSION OF THIS MSTR/CLDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS THAT
MAY GRAZE FAR SERN UPPER MI IN THE FEW FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z TUE.
THESE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE W AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD ON TUE. 18Z 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW 0C...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND E WILL MAKE THAT FEEL A BIT CHILLIER. WILL INCREASE
CLOUD COVER OVER THE E NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
SHOULD RESULT...BUT WILL ALSO SHOW CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH AIR CONTINUES TO INTRUDE.
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER TUE NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 0C.
PWATS DROP TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER AN ALREADY COOL DAY WILL MAKE FOR VERY
COLD LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S...COLDEST INTERIOR OF
COURSE. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS
VALUES ARE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH LOOKS GOOD. FROST
APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EVEN SOME SHORELINE AREAS.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE E ON WED...AS WILL THE 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR 1-2 DEGREE WARMER MAX TEMPS THAN ON
TUE...HIGHS AROUND 60.
CONTINUED TO NOTE WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SAW IN MODEL
TRENDS...DRYER WEATHER FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. CAN NOT BE TOO
CONFIDENT...THOUGH...GIVEN VERY POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE
PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL TREND THE FORECAST DRYER. TEMPS LOOK
TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR THE LAST HALF. MIN TEMPS WILL BE TRICKIER
GIVEN THE GREATER RELIANCE ON CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WED NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST WITH LOWS
POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND AND WARMER NEAR THE SHORE.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST WED NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO GET CLOSER
BEFORE ADDING THAT TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
THRU THE AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BUILDING MIXED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
GUSTY S TO SW WINDS TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTN. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE RESULTANT
STABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN LLWS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING
AND EARLY AFTN...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF -SHRA. AROUND THE TIME OF
FROPA OR JUST AFTER...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. SHOULDN`T LAST
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HRS AT EACH TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY AFTN.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE HIGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
149 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT UPR
RDG STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE GREAT LKS AND SE CANADA.
SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING W FM HI CENTER NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND DRY MID
LVLS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS IS BRINGING MOCLR SKIES/DRY WX TO THE CWA
EARLY THIS MRNG. 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS DID SHOW SOME RELATIVELY SHALLOW
MSTR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN...SO SOME PATCHY FOG/LO CLDS HAVE FORMED
OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA WITH LLVL SSE FLOW OFF LK MI. WHERE THIS
LLVL FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING OVER THE FAR W...TEMPS ARE NEAR AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM 60 DEGREES DESPITE MOCLR SKIES. LOOKING FARTHER TO
THE W...SOME HI CLDS ARE ROLLING E THRU MN WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD
FNT MOVING E THRU MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER
SHEARED SHRTWV NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. OF GREATER INTEREST
IS AREA OF HI BASED SC OVER THE LOWER LKS THAT IS MOVING NWD THRU
SRN LK MI/SW LOWER MI/SE WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/LO CLDS THIS
MRNG...HOW FAR TO THE NW AREA OF CLDS IN THE LOWER LKS MIGHT SPREAD
AND POPS LATE TNGT AHEAD OF COLD FNT NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS/SCENTRAL
CANADA.
TODAY...WITH LENGTHENING NIGHT AND LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z
GRB/APX RAOBS...EXPECT FOG/LO CLDS OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA TO EXPAND
EARLY THIS MRNG BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE MRNG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OF THE SHORTER TERM MODELS INDICATE AREA OF HIER H85
RH ASSOCIATED WITH SC MOVING TO THE N WL AT LEAST BRUSH THE SE CWA.
AFTER THE MRNG FOG/STRATUS DSPT...EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL
CU/SC TO IMPACT THE SE COUNTIES AS SOME OF THIS MSTR ADVECTS OVER
THE AREA. WHERE SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY OVER THE NW HALF...H85 TEMPS
RISING TO ARND 14C WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN
THE LO 80S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. WITH MORE CLDS AND
THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI OVER THE SE...MAX TEMPS THERE WL HOLD
NEAR 70. THE GREATER HEATING OVER ESPECIALLY THE NW HALF WL MIX 25-
30 KT WINDS TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25 MPH.
IN CONCERT WITH MIN RH FALLING TO ARND 40 PCT...THESE GUSTY WINDS WL
AGGRAVATE FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN
SGNFT RAIN RECENTLY.
TNGT...AS RATHER SHEARED OUT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TO NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z
MON...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA ARND 12Z.
SHEARED NATURE OF THE DISTURBANCE...ARRIVAL OF THE FNT DURING PERIOD
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WEAKER UPR DVGC THAN INDICATED BY SOME RECENT
MODEL RUNS AND MARGINAL MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT WL LIMIT POPS
INTO THE CHC RANGE AND ACCOMPANYING RA TOTALS. THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS FOR VIEWING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS
EVNG...AREAS AWAY FM THE AT LEAST THE SE HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOCLR IN THE EVNG BEFORE MORE CLDS ROLL IN AFTER MIDNGT AHEAD
OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE AT
SPREADING THE LLVL MSTR INTO THE CENTRAL...BUT VEERING SFC-H85 FLOW
FCST BTWN 00Z-06Z SHOULD LIMIT THE NW EXPANSION OF THIS MSTR/CLDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY THEN SLIDES OVER QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS REBOUND
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL CANADA. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT
WORKS ACROSS UPR LAKES ON MONDAY IN A WEAKENING FASHION AS STRONGER
PART OF THE FRONT STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTENING
IN THE H8-H7 LAYER WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF THE FROPA.
SINCE THE FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER CWA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVER
EAST AND SOUTH CWA IN THE AFTN...00Z GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL HAVE
TRENDED BACK TO SHOWING QPF BREAKING OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH ARRIVAL
OF SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL
LIFT PROVIDED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET
STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EVEN THOUGH NAM SHOWS
SIMILAR LARGER SCALE DYNAMICS THAT GFS/GEM/ECMWF SHOW...NAM IS MUCH
DRIER BLO H7 AND DOES NOT GENERATE QPF BEYOND 00Z TUE ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. THOUGH THINK THE NAM IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH
OVERALL DRYING WORKING IN FM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...IT IS LIKELY TOO DRY GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING STILL PRESENT ON MONDAY NIGHT. A COMPROMISE BTWN THE GFS/GEM
AND DRIER NAM WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CWA
MONDAY EVENING SHOULD WORK ATTM. CAVEAT IS THAT THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY FOR MONDAY NIGHT HAS BEEN POOR TO SAY THE LEAST AND
THERE COULD BE MORE CHANGES EVEN THOUGH IT IS ONLY 36-48 HOURS OUT.
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
MAY MOVE IN LATE OVER LK SUPERIOR AND FAR NORTH CWA. SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH. PWATS DOWN TO 0.25 INCHES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
THE HIGH POINT TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. APPEARS MOST AREAS
WILL SEE THEIR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOW
30S. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT IN LOWERING TEMPS AND HAVE TWEAKED
DOWN A BIT MORE. WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SUCH AS DRY
AIRMASS...EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES COULD SEE AT
LEAST PATCHY FROST.
REST OF THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...LOOKS DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST BUT STAYS IN CONTROL OF WEATHER OVER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO STAY IN
CONTROL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FM WED INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. LIGHT BUT STEADY ESE-SE WINDS ON WESTERN EDGE OF THE
HIGH SHOULD KEEP LOWS FM GOING AS LOW AS TUE NIGHT THOUGH.
CONSISTENCY IN THIS DRY PART OF THIS SOLUTION IS LACKING THOUGH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS IN LAST COUPLE DAYS WERE MUCH MORE EMPHATIC ON
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN BACK TO UPPER GREAT LAKES AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY THU INTO FRI. MODELS SHOW NOTHING
OF THE SORT NOW. AS MUCH AS WE COULD USE THE RAIN...THE DRIER
SCENARIO DOES SEEM MORE PLAUSIBLE WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND RESULTING EASTERLY WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH PRECIP DEFICTS ALREADY PUSHING 2
INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF ESPECIALLY CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH OUT FOR ANY
DAYS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. ONCE LEAVES BEGIN TO COME OFF THE TREES THE HAZARD WILL ONLY
INCREASE UNTIL A WIDESPREAD RAIN MATERIALIZES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
THRU THE AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BUILDING MIXED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
GUSTY S TO SW WINDS TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTN. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE RESULTANT
STABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN LLWS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING
AND EARLY AFTN...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF -SHRA. AROUND THE TIME OF
FROPA OR JUST AFTER...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. SHOULDN`T LAST
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HRS AT EACH TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY AFTN.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE HIGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
738 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT UPR
RDG STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE GREAT LKS AND SE CANADA.
SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING W FM HI CENTER NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND DRY MID
LVLS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS IS BRINGING MOCLR SKIES/DRY WX TO THE CWA
EARLY THIS MRNG. 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS DID SHOW SOME RELATIVELY SHALLOW
MSTR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN...SO SOME PATCHY FOG/LO CLDS HAVE FORMED
OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA WITH LLVL SSE FLOW OFF LK MI. WHERE THIS
LLVL FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING OVER THE FAR W...TEMPS ARE NEAR AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM 60 DEGREES DESPITE MOCLR SKIES. LOOKING FARTHER TO
THE W...SOME HI CLDS ARE ROLLING E THRU MN WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD
FNT MOVING E THRU MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER
SHEARED SHRTWV NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. OF GREATER INTEREST
IS AREA OF HI BASED SC OVER THE LOWER LKS THAT IS MOVING NWD THRU
SRN LK MI/SW LOWER MI/SE WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/LO CLDS THIS
MRNG...HOW FAR TO THE NW AREA OF CLDS IN THE LOWER LKS MIGHT SPREAD
AND POPS LATE TNGT AHEAD OF COLD FNT NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS/SCENTRAL
CANADA.
TODAY...WITH LENGTHENING NIGHT AND LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z
GRB/APX RAOBS...EXPECT FOG/LO CLDS OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA TO EXPAND
EARLY THIS MRNG BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE MRNG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OF THE SHORTER TERM MODELS INDICATE AREA OF HIER H85
RH ASSOCIATED WITH SC MOVING TO THE N WL AT LEAST BRUSH THE SE CWA.
AFTER THE MRNG FOG/STRATUS DSPT...EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL
CU/SC TO IMPACT THE SE COUNTIES AS SOME OF THIS MSTR ADVECTS OVER
THE AREA. WHERE SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY OVER THE NW HALF...H85 TEMPS
RISING TO ARND 14C WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN
THE LO 80S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. WITH MORE CLDS AND
THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI OVER THE SE...MAX TEMPS THERE WL HOLD
NEAR 70. THE GREATER HEATING OVER ESPECIALLY THE NW HALF WL MIX 25-
30 KT WINDS TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25 MPH.
IN CONCERT WITH MIN RH FALLING TO ARND 40 PCT...THESE GUSTY WINDS WL
AGGRAVATE FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN
SGNFT RAIN RECENTLY.
TNGT...AS RATHER SHEARED OUT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TO NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z
MON...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA ARND 12Z.
SHEARED NATURE OF THE DISTURBANCE...ARRIVAL OF THE FNT DURING PERIOD
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WEAKER UPR DVGC THAN INDICATED BY SOME RECENT
MODEL RUNS AND MARGINAL MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT WL LIMIT POPS
INTO THE CHC RANGE AND ACCOMPANYING RA TOTALS. THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS FOR VIEWING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS
EVNG...AREAS AWAY FM THE AT LEAST THE SE HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOCLR IN THE EVNG BEFORE MORE CLDS ROLL IN AFTER MIDNGT AHEAD
OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE AT
SPREADING THE LLVL MSTR INTO THE CENTRAL...BUT VEERING SFC-H85 FLOW
FCST BTWN 00Z-06Z SHOULD LIMIT THE NW EXPANSION OF THIS MSTR/CLDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY THEN SLIDES OVER QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS REBOUND
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL CANADA. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT
WORKS ACROSS UPR LAKES ON MONDAY IN A WEAKENING FASHION AS STRONGER
PART OF THE FRONT STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTENING
IN THE H8-H7 LAYER WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF THE FROPA.
SINCE THE FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER CWA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVER
EAST AND SOUTH CWA IN THE AFTN...00Z GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL HAVE
TRENDED BACK TO SHOWING QPF BREAKING OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH ARRIVAL
OF SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL
LIFT PROVIDED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET
STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EVEN THOUGH NAM SHOWS
SIMILAR LARGER SCALE DYNAMICS THAT GFS/GEM/ECMWF SHOW...NAM IS MUCH
DRIER BLO H7 AND DOES NOT GENERATE QPF BEYOND 00Z TUE ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. THOUGH THINK THE NAM IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH
OVERALL DRYING WORKING IN FM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...IT IS LIKELY TOO DRY GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING STILL PRESENT ON MONDAY NIGHT. A COMPROMISE BTWN THE GFS/GEM
AND DRIER NAM WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CWA
MONDAY EVENING SHOULD WORK ATTM. CAVEAT IS THAT THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY FOR MONDAY NIGHT HAS BEEN POOR TO SAY THE LEAST AND
THERE COULD BE MORE CHANGES EVEN THOUGH IT IS ONLY 36-48 HOURS OUT.
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
MAY MOVE IN LATE OVER LK SUPERIOR AND FAR NORTH CWA. SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH. PWATS DOWN TO 0.25 INCHES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
THE HIGH POINT TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. APPEARS MOST AREAS
WILL SEE THEIR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOW
30S. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT IN LOWERING TEMPS AND HAVE TWEAKED
DOWN A BIT MORE. WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SUCH AS DRY
AIRMASS...EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES COULD SEE AT
LEAST PATCHY FROST.
REST OF THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...LOOKS DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST BUT STAYS IN CONTROL OF WEATHER OVER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO STAY IN
CONTROL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FM WED INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. LIGHT BUT STEADY ESE-SE WINDS ON WESTERN EDGE OF THE
HIGH SHOULD KEEP LOWS FM GOING AS LOW AS TUE NIGHT THOUGH.
CONSISTENCY IN THIS DRY PART OF THIS SOLUTION IS LACKING THOUGH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS IN LAST COUPLE DAYS WERE MUCH MORE EMPHATIC ON
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN BACK TO UPPER GREAT LAKES AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY THU INTO FRI. MODELS SHOW NOTHING
OF THE SORT NOW. AS MUCH AS WE COULD USE THE RAIN...THE DRIER
SCENARIO DOES SEEM MORE PLAUSIBLE WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND RESULTING EASTERLY WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH PRECIP DEFICTS ALREADY PUSHING 2
INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF ESPECIALLY CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH OUT FOR ANY
DAYS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. ONCE LEAVES BEGIN TO COME OFF THE TREES THE HAZARD WILL ONLY
INCREASE UNTIL A WIDESPREAD RAIN MATERIALIZES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
CONTINUE TO HAVE A COMMS ISSUE AT IWD. THE APPROPRIATE OWNER HAS
BEEN NOTIFIED...WITH A FIX IN THE WORKS. IN THE MEANTIME AMD NOT
SKED WL BE APPENDED TO THE TAF.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...MRNG FOG/LO CLDS AT SAW WL MIX OUT AND
GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. THIS DAYTIME MIXING WL ALSO END LLWS AND
ALLOW FOR GUSTY SW WINDS AT THE SFC. CMX AND IWD WL BE VFR. THE
GUSTY WINDS WL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVNG WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING. THE RESULTANT STABILIZATION WL RESULT IN MORE LLWS TNGT.
SCT -SHRA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FNT WL ARRIVE AT IWD AND CMX OVERNGT
TNGT. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FNT...AN UPSLOPE WNW WIND WL
LIKELY BRING MVFR CIGS TO BOTH THOSE LOCATIONS. SAW SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THRU THE NGT WELL AHEAD OF THE FNT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY AFTN.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE HIGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT UPR
RDG STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE GREAT LKS AND SE CANADA.
SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING W FM HI CENTER NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND DRY MID
LVLS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS IS BRINGING MOCLR SKIES/DRY WX TO THE CWA
EARLY THIS MRNG. 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS DID SHOW SOME RELATIVELY SHALLOW
MSTR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN...SO SOME PATCHY FOG/LO CLDS HAVE FORMED
OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA WITH LLVL SSE FLOW OFF LK MI. WHERE THIS
LLVL FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING OVER THE FAR W...TEMPS ARE NEAR AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM 60 DEGREES DESPITE MOCLR SKIES. LOOKING FARTHER TO
THE W...SOME HI CLDS ARE ROLLING E THRU MN WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD
FNT MOVING E THRU MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER
SHEARED SHRTWV NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. OF GREATER INTEREST
IS AREA OF HI BASED SC OVER THE LOWER LKS THAT IS MOVING NWD THRU
SRN LK MI/SW LOWER MI/SE WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/LO CLDS THIS
MRNG...HOW FAR TO THE NW AREA OF CLDS IN THE LOWER LKS MIGHT SPREAD
AND POPS LATE TNGT AHEAD OF COLD FNT NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS/SCENTRAL
CANADA.
TODAY...WITH LENGTHENING NIGHT AND LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z
GRB/APX RAOBS...EXPECT FOG/LO CLDS OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA TO EXPAND
EARLY THIS MRNG BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE MRNG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OF THE SHORTER TERM MODELS INDICATE AREA OF HIER H85
RH ASSOCIATED WITH SC MOVING TO THE N WL AT LEAST BRUSH THE SE CWA.
AFTER THE MRNG FOG/STRATUS DSPT...EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL
CU/SC TO IMPACT THE SE COUNTIES AS SOME OF THIS MSTR ADVECTS OVER
THE AREA. WHERE SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY OVER THE NW HALF...H85 TEMPS
RISING TO ARND 14C WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN
THE LO 80S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. WITH MORE CLDS AND
THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI OVER THE SE...MAX TEMPS THERE WL HOLD
NEAR 70. THE GREATER HEATING OVER ESPECIALLY THE NW HALF WL MIX 25-
30 KT WINDS TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25 MPH.
IN CONCERT WITH MIN RH FALLING TO ARND 40 PCT...THESE GUSTY WINDS WL
AGGRAVATE FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN
SGNFT RAIN RECENTLY.
TNGT...AS RATHER SHEARED OUT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TO NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z
MON...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA ARND 12Z.
SHEARED NATURE OF THE DISTURBANCE...ARRIVAL OF THE FNT DURING PERIOD
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WEAKER UPR DVGC THAN INDICATED BY SOME RECENT
MODEL RUNS AND MARGINAL MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT WL LIMIT POPS
INTO THE CHC RANGE AND ACCOMPANYING RA TOTALS. THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS FOR VIEWING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS
EVNG...AREAS AWAY FM THE AT LEAST THE SE HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOCLR IN THE EVNG BEFORE MORE CLDS ROLL IN AFTER MIDNGT AHEAD
OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE AT
SPREADING THE LLVL MSTR INTO THE CENTRAL...BUT VEERING SFC-H85 FLOW
FCST BTWN 00Z-06Z SHOULD LIMIT THE NW EXPANSION OF THIS MSTR/CLDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY THEN SLIDES OVER QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS REBOUND
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL CANADA. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT
WORKS ACROSS UPR LAKES ON MONDAY IN A WEAKENING FASHION AS STRONGER
PART OF THE FRONT STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTENING
IN THE H8-H7 LAYER WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF THE FROPA.
SINCE THE FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER CWA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVER
EAST AND SOUTH CWA IN THE AFTN...00Z GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL HAVE
TRENDED BACK TO SHOWING QPF BREAKING OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH ARRIVAL
OF SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL
LIFT PROVIDED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET
STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EVEN THOUGH NAM SHOWS
SIMILAR LARGER SCALE DYNAMICS THAT GFS/GEM/ECMWF SHOW...NAM IS MUCH
DRIER BLO H7 AND DOES NOT GENERATE QPF BEYOND 00Z TUE ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. THOUGH THINK THE NAM IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH
OVERALL DRYING WORKING IN FM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...IT IS LIKELY TOO DRY GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING STILL PRESENT ON MONDAY NIGHT. A COMPROMISE BTWN THE GFS/GEM
AND DRIER NAM WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CWA
MONDAY EVENING SHOULD WORK ATTM. CAVEAT IS THAT THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY FOR MONDAY NIGHT HAS BEEN POOR TO SAY THE LEAST AND
THERE COULD BE MORE CHANGES EVEN THOUGH IT IS ONLY 36-48 HOURS OUT.
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
MAY MOVE IN LATE OVER LK SUPERIOR AND FAR NORTH CWA. SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH. PWATS DOWN TO 0.25 INCHES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
THE HIGH POINT TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. APPEARS MOST AREAS
WILL SEE THEIR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOW
30S. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT IN LOWERING TEMPS AND HAVE TWEAKED
DOWN A BIT MORE. WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SUCH AS DRY
AIRMASS...EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES COULD SEE AT
LEAST PATCHY FROST.
REST OF THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...LOOKS DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST BUT STAYS IN CONTROL OF WEATHER OVER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO STAY IN
CONTROL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FM WED INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. LIGHT BUT STEADY ESE-SE WINDS ON WESTERN EDGE OF THE
HIGH SHOULD KEEP LOWS FM GOING AS LOW AS TUE NIGHT THOUGH.
CONSISTENCY IN THIS DRY PART OF THIS SOLUTION IS LACKING THOUGH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS IN LAST COUPLE DAYS WERE MUCH MORE EMPHATIC ON
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN BACK TO UPPER GREAT LAKES AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY THU INTO FRI. MODELS SHOW NOTHING
OF THE SORT NOW. AS MUCH AS WE COULD USE THE RAIN...THE DRIER
SCENARIO DOES SEEM MORE PLAUSIBLE WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND RESULTING EASTERLY WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH PRECIP DEFICTS ALREADY PUSHING 2
INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF ESPECIALLY CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH OUT FOR ANY
DAYS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. ONCE LEAVES BEGIN TO COME OFF THE TREES THE HAZARD WILL ONLY
INCREASE UNTIL A WIDESPREAD RAIN MATERIALIZES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY (AT OR ABOVE 20 KT) SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD AND KSAW. INCLUDED LLWS INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AS LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY AFTN.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE HIGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
AS OF 3PM THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS JUST
NORTHWEST OF ALEXANDRIA. BASED ON LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT POSITION...SLIGHTLY SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING IN THE GOING FORECAST...BY JUST
AN HOUR OR TWO. AS FAR AS CLOUD COVER FOR VIEWING THE ECLIPSE IS
CONCERNED...STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW CLOUDS COULD REACH THE METRO
CLOSER TO 11PM-12AM...BUT SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
VIEWING. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CLOUD COVER. BASED ON ITS TREND...AREAS FROM REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH
ST CLOUD AND WEST OF THERE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DURING THE ECLIPSE.
SOME OF THE CAMS SHOWED DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE
MINNESOTA PORTION OF THE FA DRY TONIGHT...WITH THE MOISTURE
FINALLY ENOUGH IN WESTERN WI AFTER MIDNIGHT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOP...THEN LIGHTING UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITION SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM WEST CENTRAL WI NEAR EAU
CLAIRE...THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN /NEAR ALBERT LEA/. NAM SHOWED
BEST LI`S BECOMING NEGATIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF CAPE...ENOUGH FOR ADDING A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG HIGH WILL BE POISED TO PLUNGE INTO OUR AREA
WITH RAPID DRYING AND CLEARING SKIES IN CENTRAL MN BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE DROP IN DEW POINTS WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...DEW POINTS WILL BE NEAR
40 NEAR ALEXANDRIA...WITH UPPER 40S DEW POINTS WORKING INTO THE
METRO...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
ONE THING THAT HAS NOT CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH ANY OF THE MODELS AS SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CONUS. THE MAIN POLAR JET WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
RETREATS TO THE NORTH UP ACROSS THE CANADIAN ARCTIC...WITH A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL JET SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN CONUS. THIS WEAKENING
OF THE JETS RESULTS IN A WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN IN WHICH THE GUIDANCE
IS STRUGGLING TO HANDLE WHERE UPPER HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE CUT-OFF FROM
THE FLOW. IN GENERAL THOUGH THE DEFINITE TREND WE HAVE SEEN WITH THE
MODELS IS THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC AS A CLOSED HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER NRN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO. THIS BECOMES THE PERFECT UPPER
AIR SETUP FOR DEVELOPING A HUDSON HIGH AT THE SFC...WHICH IS WHAT
BOTH MODELS SHOW. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A VERY DRY SE FLOW MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE PRECIP WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS
TO START CONSIDERABLY CUTTING BACK POPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH IF THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE DOWN THE SAME
ROAD...WE COULD PROBABLY CUT THEM EVEN FURTHER WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
FOR THE FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...THERE STILL LOOKS
TO BE LINGERING PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 12Z MODELS THOUGH ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THAT AREA OF PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA
PRETTY QUICK MONDAY EVENING...SO WENT PRETTY MUCH DRY WITH THE
FORECAST AFTER 3Z TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WE WILL SEE A COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FALLING BACK INTO AT LEAST THE 30S AND WE WILL LIKELY MIX SOME 20S
DOWN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL LEAD TO OUR COOLEST MORNING
OF THE FALL THUS FAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WRN WI /CLOSEST TO THE
HIGH CENTER/ WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S...WITH
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON LOOKING LIKE A POSSIBILITY OUT AROUND
LADYSMITH. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...OUR H85 TEMPS LOOK TO HANG OUT
BETWEEN +4 AND +8C WHICH TRANSLATES NICELY TO HIGHS IN THE 60S.
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HUDSON HIGH...WE WILL ALSO SEE COOL
MORNINGS...WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S EVERY
NIGHT...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR FROST COMING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
RIDGE AXIS SETS UP ON A NIGHTLY BASIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SET TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. TIMED WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE AND FRONT POSITION...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE
TAFS. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE FROPA...WITH BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 5K FEET. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TOMORROW BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KMSP...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH CLOSE TO 12Z MONDAY...WINDS
TURN NORTHEASTERLY AT FIRST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY. LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIP...COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IMPACTING MSP WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THE
TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. N WIND 5-10KT.
WED...VFR. SE 5-15KT.
THU...VFR. SE 5-10KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1040 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON OVER SOME LOCATIONS IN
NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING. THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SOME BRIEF PEAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
A BETTER BLANKET OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES NORTH FROM THE COAST.
THIS IS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
LOW...ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A MID/UPPER LOW ACROSS EAST
TEXAS...HAS HELPED STREAM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 12 -18 HOURS. THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING
INDICATES 1.7 INCH PW VALUES...WHICH IS UP SUBSTANTIALLY FROM 1.1
INCHES JUST LAST NIGHT. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA AND EVEN SOUTH OF THE GULF COASTLINE BUT SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARE
SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH INTO SOUTH/SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AND LOUISIANA. IT ISNT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING DEVELOPS. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR
REMAIN MEAGER BUT THERE IS A SMALL AREA IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
WHERE BETTER SHEAR IS FORECAST AND COULD SEE A BRIEF STRONGER STORM
HERE WHICH IS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN THAT CAN MOVE NORTH WILL GREATLY LIMIT
WARMING OUTSIDE OF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SOME
IN THE DELTA WHERE WARMING HAS BEEN SLOWER THIS MORNING. OVERALL...WE
SHOULD STAY IN THE 80S TODAY WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...PRIMARILY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND GOING POPS SEEM TO INDICATE
THIS WELL. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS MADE WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
HOURLY TRENDS. /28/
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
INCREASING MOISTURE...RESULTING IN LOWERING CEILINGS AND SHRA
CHANCES...WILL BE GREATEST NEAR HBG THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
/27/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE CENTRAL TX COAST. DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW IS TRANSPORTING AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN REGION NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION (PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES). AS SURFACE
PRESSURES GRADUALLY LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT INCREASES OVER
THE ARKLAMISS...EXPECT SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
PARTICULAR IN THE TIME FRAME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. BUT IT APPEARS THAT GREATER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL STAY MORE FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR GETTING MORE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER
JET SUPPORT IS EXPECTED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUCH TIMING IS PRETTY LOW
RIGHT NOW GIVEN AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MESOSCALE INFLUENCES TO DICTATE
OUR WEATHER. RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH WITH RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL IN THE PINE BELT REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER THAN RECENTLY EXPERIENCED...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /EC/
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS AGREE THAT DECENT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR CWA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THE
RAIN. THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A LOW
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING
NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST. THE PWAT OVER OUR CWA WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES
TUESDAY AND LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAIN
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AND WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
PINNED ALONG THE GULF COAST AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF MISSISSIPPI BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR
REGION. PWATS WILL BE BACK BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR CWA FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOWERING SURFACE DEW POINTS
INTO THE 50S BY THURSDAY EVENING. OUR PWATS WILL BE DOWN TO NEAR AND
INCH BY FRIDAY MORNING. THUS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
STRENGTHEN BACK OVER OUR REGION. THURSDAY. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF CONCERNING SATURDAY. THE GFS IS
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...OVER OUR CWA...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PREVIOUS AND
LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF WITH SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN ARE NORTH OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAINTAINING DRY
WEATHER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 85 68 81 68 / 46 60 70 53
MERIDIAN 83 67 80 68 / 48 66 67 62
VICKSBURG 85 68 84 68 / 45 47 63 51
HATTIESBURG 85 69 83 69 / 73 58 64 51
NATCHEZ 85 68 82 68 / 64 43 60 40
GREENVILLE 85 69 83 68 / 20 40 70 53
GREENWOOD 85 67 82 67 / 20 46 70 59
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
28/27/EC/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
457 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE CENTRAL TX COAST. DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW IS TRANSPORTING AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN REGION NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION (PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES). AS SURFACE
PRESSURES GRADUALLY LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT INCREASES OVER
THE ARKLAMISS...EXPECT SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
PARTICULAR IN THE TIME FRAME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. BUT IT APPEARS THAT GREATER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL STAY MORE FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR GETTING MORE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER
JET SUPPORT IS EXPECTED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUCH TIMING IS PRETTY LOW
RIGHT NOW GIVEN AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MESOSCALE INFLUENCES TO DICTATE
OUR WEATHER. RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH WITH RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL IN THE PINE BELT REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER THAN RECENTLY EXPERIENCED...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /EC/
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS AGREE THAT DECENT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR CWA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THE
RAIN. THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A LOW
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING
NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST. THE PWAT OVER OUR CWA WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES
TUESDAY AND LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAIN
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AND WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
PINNED ALONG THE GULF COAST AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF MISSISSIPPI BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR
REGION. PWATS WILL BE BACK BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR CWA FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOWERING SURFACE DEW POINTS
INTO THE 50S BY THURSDAY EVENING. OUR PWATS WILL BE DOWN TO NEAR AND
INCH BY FRIDAY MORNING. THUS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
STRENGTHEN BACK OVER OUR REGION. THURSDAY. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF CONCERNING SATURDAY. THE GFS IS
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...OVER OUR CWA...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PREVIOUS AND
LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF WITH SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN ARE NORTH OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAINTAINING DRY
WEATHER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...SOME MORNING IFR CATEGORY STRATUS COULD STILL DEVELOP
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE GTR/MEI/HBG CORRIDOR. IF SO...EXPECT IT
TO MIX UP INTO THE MVFR/VFR CATEGORIES LATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THEREAFTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHRA CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST NEAR
HBG LATE TODAY...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 85 68 81 68 / 39 60 70 53
MERIDIAN 83 67 80 68 / 48 66 67 62
VICKSBURG 86 68 84 68 / 50 47 63 51
HATTIESBURG 85 69 83 69 / 52 58 64 51
NATCHEZ 83 68 82 68 / 53 43 60 40
GREENVILLE 86 69 83 68 / 23 40 70 53
GREENWOOD 86 67 82 67 / 27 46 70 59
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
/EC/22/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
952 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 943 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
Updated forecast to bring scattered showers northwest of I-44 in
Missouri and I-70 in Illinois. Showers have persisted this evening
in area of low level moisture convergence underneath mid level
trough axis extending northward from upper low currently over the
Lower Mississippi Valley. CAMS are showing that these showers
will persist through the night, so expanded the PoPs accordingly.
Temperatures will likely not fall off too much tonight given the
clouds and current dewpoints.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
Forecast area continues to get squeezed between upper level
shortwave energy that is retrograding back to the north towards
forecast area and next cold front moving in from the northwest.
Showers currently trying to move into our far southern counties as
of 20z. So will initially see isolated/scattered showers develop and
advect north into forecast area through this evening and into the
overnight hours. In the meantime, cold front will move closer to
region from the northwest, but will not see any precipitation from
it until after 12z Tuesday, just an increase in cloud cover. Because
of this weather pattern, winds will be light and variable. As for
overnight lows, once again to remain about 10 degrees above normal,
in the low to mid 60s.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
FA will remain on the northern fringes of the upper low drifting
into the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow, while upper trof
pushing into the upper Great Lakes will allow cold front that
approaching northern sections of the FA late tonight to ooze
across the region during the day. Some PoPs will be tied to both
these features, but I`m really not sure that the 12z based MOS
from either the NAM or GFS have a real good handle on the expected
precip threat and/or trends.
Mass and moisture fields would certainly suggest that southeast
sections of the CWA will be on the northern fringes of the precip
associated with the southern system on Tuesday, which also suggests
that some MOS numbers in this section of the FA may be a bit too
high (and this has certainly been the case for the past several
days). However, the last few hours of the last several HRRR runs
suggest precip blossoming very late tonight as far north to near the
I44-I70 corridor...roughly near the northern trofing associated with
the upper low. I have upped PoPs some over the southeast half of
the CWA, but ultimately expect a pretty sharp PoP gradient that will
be resolved in the nowcast time frame.
Meanwhile across the north, expect a fairly large band of showers
along and especially north of the cold front just north of our FA
early Tuesday, with the showers working southeast and gradually
diminishing in coverage with time as the cold front works across the
region. Some low post-frontal shower threat will likely linger into
the evening hours before the drier air behind the front scours out
the low level moisture.
The latest 12z guidance is continuing the trend of the last few days
of being more bullish deepening the UA trof over the eastern CONUS
during the latter half of the week, which in turn allows for a
stronger intrusion of the Canadian high into the mid-Mississippi
Valley. Based on progged 850MB thermal profiles, temperatures will
have a decidely autumn feel...with highs dropping into the 60s and
lows tumbling into the 40s across the entire region Friday-Sunday.
With the high progged to exert greater dominance in the weather over
the region, it would appear that precip chances will be fairly low.
Specifics in the medium range UA progs are hard to pin down as
solutions are noisy and chaotic to say the least...but there does
seem to be some agreement that WAA will develop over the Plains
Friday night, with associated shower threat possibly working into
western/sw portions of the FA Sat-Sun.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Expect light and variable winds until
after 10z when a cold front will move into the region. Winds will
turn northerly to northeasterly behind the front and increase
above 10 kts. Post-frontal MVFR stratus is expected and some
sprinkles are possible.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Expect light and variable winds
until after 12z when a cold front will move into the region. Winds
turn northerly to northeasterly behind the front and increase
above 10 kts. Post-frontal MVFR stratus is expected and some
sprinkles are possible.
42
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
638 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
Forecast area continues to get squeezed between upper level
shortwave energy that is retrograding back to the north towards
forecast area and next cold front moving in from the northwest.
Showers currently trying to move into our far southern counties as
of 20z. So will initially see isolated/scattered showers develop and
advect north into forecast area through this evening and into the
overnight hours. In the meantime, cold front will move closer to
region from the northwest, but will not see any precipitation from
it until after 12z Tuesday, just an increase in cloud cover. Because
of this weather pattern, winds will be light and variable. As for
overnight lows, once again to remain about 10 degrees above normal,
in the low to mid 60s.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
FA will remain on the northern fringes of the upper low drifting
into the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow, while upper trof
pushing into the upper Great Lakes will allow cold front that
approaching northern sections of the FA late tonight to ooze
across the region during the day. Some PoPs will be tied to both
these features, but I`m really not sure that the 12z based MOS
from either the NAM or GFS have a real good handle on the expected
precip threat and/or trends.
Mass and moisture fields would certainly suggest that southeast
sections of the CWA will be on the northern fringes of the precip
associated with the southern system on Tuesday, which also suggests
that some MOS numbers in this section of the FA may be a bit too
high (and this has certainly been the case for the past several
days). However, the last few hours of the last several HRRR runs
suggest precip blossoming very late tonight as far north to near the
I44-I70 corridor...roughly near the northern trofing associated with
the upper low. I have upped PoPs some over the southeast half of
the CWA, but ultimately expect a pretty sharp PoP gradient that will
be resolved in the nowcast time frame.
Meanwhile across the north, expect a fairly large band of showers
along and especially north of the cold front just north of our FA
early Tuesday, with the showers working southeast and gradually
diminishing in coverage with time as the cold front works across the
region. Some low post-frontal shower threat will likely linger into
the evening hours before the drier air behind the front scours out
the low level moisture.
The latest 12z guidance is continuing the trend of the last few days
of being more bullish deepening the UA trof over the eastern CONUS
during the latter half of the week, which in turn allows for a
stronger intrusion of the Canadian high into the mid-Mississippi
Valley. Based on progged 850MB thermal profiles, temperatures will
have a decidely autumn feel...with highs dropping into the 60s and
lows tumbling into the 40s across the entire region Friday-Sunday.
With the high progged to exert greater dominance in the weather over
the region, it would appear that precip chances will be fairly low.
Specifics in the medium range UA progs are hard to pin down as
solutions are noisy and chaotic to say the least...but there does
seem to be some agreement that WAA will develop over the Plains
Friday night, with associated shower threat possibly working into
western/sw portions of the FA Sat-Sun.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Expect light and variable winds until
after 10z when a cold front will move into the region. Winds will
turn northerly to northeasterly behind the front and increase
above 10 kts. Post-frontal MVFR stratus is expected and some
sprinkles are possible.
Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Expect light and variable winds
until after 12z when a cold front will move into the region. Winds
turn northerly to northeasterly behind the front and increase
above 10 kts. Post-frontal MVFR stratus is expected and some
sprinkles are possible.
42
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
705 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2015
This morning`s water vapor imagery along with 500mb heights and
vorticity indicates a chain of weak vorticity extending from Lake
Michigan southwest into northeast and central Missouri. Weak low
level moisture convergence today, combined with this vort chain
should produce widely scattered showers across the area. All
guidance members produce widespread light qpf to a greater or lesser
extent, and explicit convective models like the NCEP and NSSL WRF as
well as the HRRR show widely scattered showers developing during the
late morning or early afternoon. MOS PoPs still look over done, so
have kept 20-30% going for now. Temperatures in the mid to upper
70s look reasonable given the warm south-southeast flow, but with
more cloud cover than yesterday to keep temperatures below 80 for
the most part.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2015
There is a good model consensus on northwesterly flow aloft
prevailing across our region thru at least Thursday. This will make
it very favorable for a surface cold front to drop down thru on late
Monday night or Tuesday and cooler air to infiltrate for much of mid-
week. Prior to that, it looks like above average temps to continue
thru Monday and probably into Tuesday for most areas as the cooler
air is still working its way in on that day. High pressure
associated with the cooler airmass for mid-week will then be slow to
pull out and should keep our region in near seasonable temps heading
into next weekend.
Looking at rain chances, models show a slightly less favorable setup
for showers on Monday from today, but considering how showers have
struggled since the system has weakened and moved away from its
primary moisture source in the Atlantic, will elect to maintain a
dry forecast for now. A better chance for rain looks to be on the
backside of the cold front later on Tuesday, but even then not great.
Rain chances then start to get muddled as we head deeper into the
week, especially next weekend. The models vaguely maintain the NW
flow aloft but with more significant systems potentially starting to
ride it down into our area. Location is all over the place with
little to piece a good consensus on. For now, will heavily weight
the forecast for late week and next weekend on CLIMO and favor max
temps in the 70s and slight chance PoPs until a clearer signal is
seen.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2015
A broad area of VFR ceilings is blanketing the area this morning,
with patches of MVFR clouds around 2,500 FT. Any MVFR ceilings
should gradually rise through mid-late morning to VFR with at
least some partial clearing between 00Z and 15Z. Isolated showers
will also affect the area today, but I don`t expect these showers
to be heavy enouh or wide spread enough to be a serious impact to
airport operations.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR ceilings will likely continue to prevail through much of the
day at Lambert. There are some lower clouds in the area with bases
around 2,500 FT. These MVFR clouds should lift by 15-16Z. Isolated
showers aer possible today as well...primarily in the afternoon.
Showers should be very light and will likely not cause any impact
to airport operations.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
330 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2015
This morning`s water vapor imagery along with 500mb heights and
vorticity indicates a chain of weak vorticity extending from Lake
Michigan southwest into northeast and central Missouri. Weak low
level moisture convergence today, combined with this vort chain
should produce widely scattered showers across the area. All
guidance members produce widespread light qpf to a greater or lesser
extent, and explicit convective models like the NCEP and NSSL WRF as
well as the HRRR show widely scattered showers developing during the
late morning or early afternoon. MOS PoPs still look over done, so
have kept 20-30% going for now. Temperatures in the mid to upper
70s look reasonable given the warm south-southeast flow, but with
more cloud cover than yesterday to keep temperatures below 80 for
the most part.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2015
There is a good model consensus on northwesterly flow aloft
prevailing across our region thru at least Thursday. This will make
it very favorable for a surface cold front to drop down thru on late
Monday night or Tuesday and cooler air to infiltrate for much of mid-
week. Prior to that, it looks like above average temps to continue
thru Monday and probably into Tuesday for most areas as the cooler
air is still working its way in on that day. High pressure
associated with the cooler airmass for mid-week will then be slow to
pull out and should keep our region in near seasonable temps heading
into next weekend.
Looking at rain chances, models show a slightly less favorable setup
for showers on Monday from today, but considering how showers have
struggled since the system has weakened and moved away from its
primary moisture source in the Atlantic, will elect to maintain a
dry forecast for now. A better chance for rain looks to be on the
backside of the cold front later on Tuesday, but even then not great.
Rain chances then start to get muddled as we head deeper into the
week, especially next weekend. The models vaguely maintain the NW
flow aloft but with more significant systems potentially starting to
ride it down into our area. Location is all over the place with
little to piece a good consensus on. For now, will heavily weight
the forecast for late week and next weekend on CLIMO and favor max
temps in the 70s and slight chance PoPs until a clearer signal is
seen.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2015
Cloud deck across MO/IL will continue to rotate ewd overnight.
Still expect MVFR cigs to move into the region as the lower atmo
cools and saturates. However, timing of lower cigs is less
certain. Otherwise, winds will be aob 5 kts tonight, becoming
light and sely on Sun. MVFR cigs shud lift to VFR with some breaks
possible by 17z or so. Chances for precip remain low, but can not
rule out a brief -SHRA, mainly across srn MO/IL.
Tilly
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
318 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
HEIGHTS STILL FALLING ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FROM ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THIS TROUGH MOVEMENT IS BRINGING EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA BUT DEEPER TAP IS OVER WYOMING AND
CURRENT RADAR DOES SO ANY PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE PARK AND THE BIG HORNS. WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE
RISE HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 9 PM.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS TIMING MAY IMPACT LUNAR ECLIPSE VIEWING FOR
PEOPLE.
MONDAY IS MOSTLY DRY WITH A CONTINUED COOLING TREND WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING WEAKLY OVER THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS BECOMES POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND MOISTURE IS
PULLED INTO THAT AREA AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. STILL NOT A BUNCH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED.
TUESDAY HEIGHTS BUILD UPSTREAM WITH DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRYING
BUT NO WHERE NEAR THE SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS SEEN EARLIER THIS
WEEKEND. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
EXTENDED DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE SHOWING AGREEMENT EARLY...WHILE
THE EURO ENSEMBLES CONTINUED TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE GEFS SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL 00Z
FRI. NOTED THAT DETERMINISTIC MODELS START FALLING OUT OF
AGREEMENT ON FRI WITH POTENIALLY POTENT APPROACHING WEST-COAST
SYSTEM.
UPPER RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... TO
THEN BE REPLACED BY PACIFIC TROUGH WHEN MODEL QPF BEGINS TO
INCREASE WITH ASSOCIATED FORCING IN WESTERN ZONES. THE TROUGH WILL
FORM AN UPPER LOW THAT SHIFTS SE DURING FRI... WITH TRENDING
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SAME DIRECTION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS ARE PRESENT IN THE GRIDS TO COVER THIS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST THE AREA ON THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TRACK SHOULD BRING
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE AREA GRADUALLY... AS THE FRONTAL COMPLEX
AND SFC LOW ALSO REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH.
GFS SOLUTION HAS MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND QPF IN FAVOR OF AT LEAST
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT EURO IS
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND DRIER IN THE SAME PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION
BRINGS AN UPPER LOW ONTO THE CENTRAL CA COST...WHILE THE GFS HAD
THE LOW NEARBY BUT MUCH WEAKER..WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IN THE
EURO LIKELY THE SOURCE OF WARMER TEMPS. BOTH MODELS THUS HAD VERY
DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF FLOW OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SW IN THE EURO AND SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN
THE NW FLOW FROM THE GFS... BUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD WAS DRY IN
BOTH MODELS. MROWELL
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS AND
NE BIG HORNS LATE IN THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR S AND E OF A KLVM TO KBIL TO FORSYTH LINE
THIS EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE E AND SE OF KBIL
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF OBSCURATION OVER
THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS TONIGHT. ARTHUR/BORSUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/068 046/078 051/081 053/072 051/065 047/059 041/063
10/B 00/U 01/U 35/W 53/W 22/W 11/B
LVM 041/069 042/078 046/081 048/068 046/064 044/058 039/062
10/U 00/U 01/B 34/W 32/W 22/W 22/W
HDN 047/070 044/079 048/084 050/076 048/067 045/062 041/068
10/B 01/B 11/U 35/W 52/W 22/W 11/B
MLS 049/068 044/077 048/081 052/077 050/066 046/063 042/066
31/B 01/B 11/U 25/W 43/W 22/W 11/B
4BQ 050/066 046/077 049/082 051/076 049/067 046/064 043/068
21/E 01/B 21/U 13/W 54/W 22/W 21/B
BHK 047/064 043/072 047/078 049/073 048/064 044/062 041/064
42/W 01/B 21/U 23/W 44/W 21/B 11/B
SHR 046/069 043/079 047/082 048/075 048/067 042/063 039/068
21/B 11/B 11/B 24/W 33/W 22/W 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
634 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION WITH SEVERAL PV
ANOMALIES ROTATING AROUND IT. IN ADDITION...POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LOW OVER THE E PAC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PV CONNECTION TO THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. CLOSER TO HOME...WEAKER PV ANOMALY
MOVING ACROSS SRN WY ATTM GENERATING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS
ERN WY...WITH ISOLD SHRA/-TSRA IN PORTIONS OF NC NEBR ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAKENING MID LEVEL FGEN ACROSS THAT AREA. SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARLY STALLED FROM NEAR LIMON CO TO NORTH OF GLD TO JUST
S OF EAR TO S OF YANKTON SD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
NEW COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD OVERNIGHT WITH
MOST OF WESTERN AND NC NEBR REMAINING IN THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ATTENDANT TO A
EWD ADVANCING PV ANOMALY AS MENTIONED WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN
SD/NRN NEBR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT
OVERNIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AREA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
REMAINS PRESENT ON THE 305/310K LEVELS. ELEVATED WEAK TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS BROWN...ROCK AND HOLT COUNTIES
STILL ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FGEN WITHIN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. INTEGRATING THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OVERNIGHT YIELDS AN
AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA CURRENTLY OVER SWRN SD TO MOVE ACROSS NRN
NEBR BUT THEN SOME MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE 06- 09Z TIME FRAME THAT MAY ALLOW
REDEVELOPMENT WWD. MEANWHILE THE HRRR SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE SWD ADVANCING FRONT PRIOR TO 06Z AND THEN PUSHING SEWD
OVERNIGHT. WITH SEVERAL SMALL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TIMING AND LOCATION OF NEW DEVELOPMENT BECOMES DIFFICULT. HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIP...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STRONGER THAN WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD LOW VSBYS. HENCE HAVE SIDED ON PATCHY FOG
MENTION.
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY SO
WOULD EXPECT OCCASIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA ESPECIALLY IN SWRN
NEBR. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN CONSIDERABLY DUE TO LOW CLOUD COVER
AND ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
MODELS AGAIN COMING IN COOLER. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
NAM FOR THE MID TERM AND GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM. TOMORROW
NIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST SEVERAL WEAK WAVES MOVING
THROUGH RIDGE. ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH LLJ AND
SOME LIFT. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH DRIZZLE TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF WARMER THAN GFS. STRONG WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WITH SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COOL AT
THE SURFACE WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT AS WARNER AIR AT THE SURFACE TO
THE SOUTH LIFTED OVER THE COOLER AIR. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER
NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. TRANSITIONING TO RAINSHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. SHOWERS END
SUNDAY WITH A WARMUP INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EAST AND
70S WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. 50S AND 60S SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT FROM 00Z TO 06Z...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA AS MOIST AIR LIFTS UP OVER A FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA.
VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM IS LIKELY WITH THE SHOWERS THOUGH
CEILINGS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL. THOUGH THE SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT ABOUT HALF OF THE AREA...THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IS ONLY
ABOUT 20 PERCENT. FOR THE TIME BEING THEN...WE WILL LEAVE TS OUT OF
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR LBF AND VTN
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH...CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL
ARE LIKELY AFTER 06Z IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...I.E. SOUTH
AND WEST OF AN IEN-BBW LINE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
138 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTING WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FROST IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST VERMONT TONIGHT. A RETURN TO WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING TO QUICKLY FALL IN MANY AREAS.
AS IS TYPICAL, WE ARE SEEING A LARGE RANGE OF VARIABILITY AS THE
COOL AIR DEVELOPS AND TENDS TO POOL IN VALLEYS AND "BOWLS" IN THE
TERRAIN. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY DOWN TO
THE MID 30S, WHILE WARM LOCATIONS ARE STILL AROUND 50F. DID ADJUST
LOW TEMPERATURES HERE AND THERE BASED ON THESE QUICK FALLING
TRENDS AS SOME SPOTS ARE ALREADY TO PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LOWS.
STILL EXPECT THE RATE OF FALL TO VERY SOON SLOW VERY SOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. 01Z RUNS OF RAP AND HRRR AS
WELL AS THE 21Z 6KM BTV MODEL SHOW THAT HAPPENING PRIOR TO 06Z
(2AM).
STILL HELD WITH THE FROST ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF EAST/NORTHEAST
VERMONT. PROBABLY SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER SECTIONS OF THE
`DACKS, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT THE
HOISTING OF A FROST ADVISORY IN THOSE SECTIONS, BUT I DID ADD TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE APPLICABLE LOCATIONS. BUT HECK, IT`S LATE
SEPTEMBER SO THESE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SUNDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS IN CONTROL, BUT
BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO AROUND +11C AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE, EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT: PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING ALOFT TO DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THUS, LOW-
LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN MOISTURE/CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST WILL STILL BE A DRY ONE BUT IT ALSO STANDS TO BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THESE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. LOWS RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE IT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO TURN OVERCAST TO THE 50S.
MONDAY: BROAD NORTHERN STREAM 500 MB TROUGH SHOULD BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME,
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL DISTURBANCE NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN
ADVANCE OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH PWATS CLIMBING INTO THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. 12Z
GUIDANCE REVIEW INDICATES THAT THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS, WHICH ARE SLOWER AND FOCUS HIGHEST POPS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE NAM/SREF ARE A BIT QUICKER. OPTED TO
FOLLOW THE SREF MEAN IDEA IN INCREASING POPS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT QPF TO BE
AT OR UNDER A QUARTER-INCH THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS,
LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STARTS TO ACT ON MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF IT. OVERCAST SKIES INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH-CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS. WARMEST NIGHT IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF +11 TO +12C AND OVERCAST SKIES SUPPORTING RATHER MILD LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION ALSO ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CHANGES TAKE PLACE ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BEFORE
TRENDING TOWARD WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR FOG/BR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AFFECTING TAF SITES MPV AND
POSSIBLY SLK. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME FOG/BR AT MPV FROM 07Z-13Z AND POSSIBLY AT SLK FOR A SHORT
TIME. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL
INHIBIT FORMATION ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK. WINDS LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE AT 7-10 KNOTS AT RUT) BECOME
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z TUE - 12Z WED...VFR WITH PERIODS MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW
PRESSURE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
12Z WED ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-007-
010.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...NEILES/NASH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
111 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTING WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FROST IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST VERMONT TONIGHT. A RETURN TO WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING TO QUICKLY FALL IN MANY AREAS.
AS IS TYPICAL, WE ARE SEEING A LARGE RANGE OF VARIABILITY AS THE
COOL AIR DEVELOPS AND TENDS TO POOL IN VALLEYS AND "BOWLS" IN THE
TERRAIN. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY DOWN TO
THE MID 30S, WHILE WARM LOCATIONS ARE STILL AROUND 50F. DID ADJUST
LOW TEMPERATURES HERE AND THERE BASED ON THESE QUICK FALLING
TRENDS AS SOME SPOTS ARE ALREADY TO PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LOWS.
STILL EXPECT THE RATE OF FALL TO VERY SOON SLOW VERY SOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. 01Z RUNS OF RAP AND HRRR AS
WELL AS THE 21Z 6KM BTV MODEL SHOW THAT HAPPENING PRIOR TO 06Z
(2AM).
STILL HELD WITH THE FROST ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF EAST/NORTHEAST
VERMONT. PROBABLY SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER SECTIONS OF THE
`DACKS, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT THE
HOISTING OF A FROST ADVISORY IN THOSE SECTIONS, BUT I DID ADD TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE APPLICABLE LOCATIONS. BUT HECK, IT`S LATE
SEPTEMBER SO THESE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SUNDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS IN CONTROL, BUT
BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO AROUND +11C AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE, EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT: PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING ALOFT TO DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THUS, LOW-
LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN MOISTURE/CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST WILL STILL BE A DRY ONE BUT IT ALSO STANDS TO BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THESE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. LOWS RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE IT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO TURN OVERCAST TO THE 50S.
MONDAY: BROAD NORTHERN STREAM 500 MB TROUGH SHOULD BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME,
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL DISTURBANCE NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN
ADVANCE OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH PWATS CLIMBING INTO THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. 12Z
GUIDANCE REVIEW INDICATES THAT THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS, WHICH ARE SLOWER AND FOCUS HIGHEST POPS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE NAM/SREF ARE A BIT QUICKER. OPTED TO
FOLLOW THE SREF MEAN IDEA IN INCREASING POPS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT QPF TO BE
AT OR UNDER A QUARTER-INCH THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS,
LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STARTS TO ACT ON MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF IT. OVERCAST SKIES INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH-CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS. WARMEST NIGHT IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF +11 TO +12C AND OVERCAST SKIES SUPPORTING RATHER MILD LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION ALSO ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CHANGES TAKE PLACE ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BEFORE
TRENDING TOWARD WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR FOG/BR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG/BR AT MPV FROM 08Z-13Z AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY AT SLK. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND DRY
LOW LEVELS WILL INHIBIT FORMATION ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME FEW-SCT CUMULUS POSSIBLE AT
MSS/SLK. WINDS LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE AT
7-9 KNOTS AT RUT) BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z TUE - 12Z WED...VFR WITH PERIODS MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW
PRESSURE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
12Z WED ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-007-
010.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...NEILES/NASH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1044 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE
EAST WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM MON...LATEST RADAR IMAGES CONTINUES TO SHOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST. POPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH THIS UPDATE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS. THE LATEST 00Z UPPER
AIR SOUNDING SHOWS RICH EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC TO ABOUT 700 MB
WITH PW OF 2.30 INCHES...SOME 2 TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE
AREA PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR THE SHOWERS.
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
70S. SHOWER CHANCES AND ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD RAMP BACK UP AGAIN
NEAR THE COAST AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL CONTINUES TO BRING MORE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN THE AREA. FOR INLAND AREAS...THREAT FOR FOG
WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AS LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS COMBINED WITH TODAY`S RAINFALL ACT TO PRIME THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...ANOTHER UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY DAY ON TUESDAY
EXPECTED WITH SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES
EXPECTED. SHOWERS SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE
DAY...TRANSITIONING INLAND AS COASTAL TROUGH MIGRATES INLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM EASTERLY TO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY...AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL TRANSPIRE...WITH
CAPE VALS AOA 2000 J/KG EXPECTED. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AREA WIDE WITH
TD`S UNCOMFORABLY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE PLAGUED BY DIFFERENCES AND A LACK OF RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN WITH TD #11 IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH AND IT`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN US. THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME DISRUPTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THEN STALLS OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT A
MODERATE N/NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE LONG RANGE TRACK
OF TD #11 IS UNCERTAIN, MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BE DRAWN
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW
VALUES AOA 2" FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD ALSO BE PICKED UP BY THE
UPPER TROUGH AND TRANSPORTED TO THE NORTH INTO OUR REGION. THE
MODELS UNDERSTANDABLY ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE
THIS COMPLEX SITUATION, THUS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
DRIER AIR COULD FILTER INTO THE REGION SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
THE TIMING OF THIS IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY THEN
POTENTIAL MUCH COOLER ESP OVER INLAND AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHERE SOME DEEP INLAND AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH 70.
NEXT WEEKEND...THE KEY TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA PUSHING THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME OFFSHORE AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO FINALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
WHEN THIS OCCURS WILL NEED MAINTAIN CHANCE LOW/SLIGHT POPS INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST. A DRIER DEEP W/NW
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER AS DEEP TROF MOVES EAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM MON...SHOWERS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH
MVFR CIGS DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOIST EASTERLY FLOW THOUGH
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AT THE TERMINALS.
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING CALM TO LIGHT ALLOWING FOR FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP. FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF/LIFT AROUND MID MORNING WITH
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER TOMORROW
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, LOCATION AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS
PERIOD BUT PERIODIC SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS
THAT FORM AS TROPICAL AIR AGAIN IS DRAWN BACK INTO EASTERN NC.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM MON...MINOR TWEAKS WERE DONE WITH THIS
UPDATE...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS E/NE 15
TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. SAME GENERAL
PATTERN PERSISTS WITH EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO ELEVATE
SEAS...THOUGH THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 7 TO 9 FOOT RANGE AS OBSERVED AREA BUOYS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEAS WILL VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY THOUGH STILL REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 9 FOOT RANGE. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT HAS BEEN NEAR THE COAST FINALLY BEGINS TO MIGRATE
INLAND...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BE LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS A MOSTLY PERSISTENT MODERATE N/NE FLOW
AND ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE OVER THE NC WATERS IN A COMPLEX SURFACE
WEATHER PATTERN. LONG RANGE TRACK OF TD#11 STILL UNCERTAIN BUT MAY
HELP ENHANCE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE NC COAST LATE THIS WEEK.
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO TEMPORARILY DIMINISH AS A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS
MAY TURN SOUTHERLY FOR A BRIEF TIME AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO
DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED. BEHIND THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KT THURSDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO (BRIEFLY) SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT ON WEDNESDAY THEN AS
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SEAS
WILL BUILD BACK TO 6+ FT. OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS
SEAS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1030 AM MON...CONTINUED VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDES WILL LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING ACROSS CARTERET COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST TUE MORNING.
HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AS
6 TO 10 FOOT SURF HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL/SK/BM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...BTC/SK
MARINE...BTC/TL/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
626 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST AND THEN FINALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT OUT DURING MONDAY. THE SURF ZONE WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS
THROUGH MONDAY. A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA
MID WEEK. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...RADAR SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS STREAMING INLAND FROM
SURF CITY TO ELIZABETHTOWN. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST ON
SHORE PUSH OF WINDS AND GREATEST LIFT. TO THE SOUTH FROM THE TIP
OF CAPE FEAR TO THE GRAND STRAND AND MOVING INLAND...BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WERE VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THICK CLOUD
COVER FARTHER INLAND...MAINLY WEST OF I95 AS WEDGE HOLDS ON. THE
BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SOME GREATER MIXING BRINGING DOWN
SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING UP TO 20 TO
25 KT ABOVE RADAR AND SOUNDINGS TO THE NORTH OVER THE CAPE FEAR
COAST SHOW WINDS AROUND 30 KT OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 3K FT.
OVERALL ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH THE CHANCES FOR
PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE WELL INLAND AND SHOWERS PUSHING FARTHER
INLAND. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR COAST.
LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE COAST TO A BROADER AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH RUNNING ALONG THE LEE OF
APPALACHIANS. THE SHALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERRUN BY PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN A MORE TYPICAL
WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS AT THE
SURFACE HAVE COME AROUND TO A MORE E-NE FLOW WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PRODUCING MORE
CONVECTIVE TYPE PCP. HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS PROGRESSING INLAND
WITH BETTER DIMINISHING COVERAGE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING.
THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE WAS MORE PREVALENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE
THE MORE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WERE PROVIDING SOME DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THE DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF COAST WILL
PROVIDE A STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN THE OVERALL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. ALTHOUGH IT DOES
DEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER IN PROVIDING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ACT TO
PULL THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WESTWARD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...AS YOU MOVE FARTHER INLAND THE GREATER NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE
THE COASTAL AREAS MAY GET A BREAK THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A
GREATER NOCTURNAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY GREAT QPF ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DO NOT EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
NOT DROPPING BELOW 70 MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY AND MAY EVEN MOVE ONSHORE FOR A TIME ON MON BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING OUT DURING TUE. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...99TH
PERCENTILE...REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH SOME SLIGHT DRYING
ON TUE AS THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH HAS BEEN EASTERLY
FOR DAYS...BECOMES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD SIGNAL
A CHANCE TO DRY OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE MAKES A RUN FOR THE NE GULF
COAST. THIS MAY NECESSITATE EVEN HIGHER POPS FOR TUE THAN ON
MON AND OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THUS...WILL BE KEEPING POPS ELEVATED AND AS HIGH AS LIKELY AND
INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUE/TUE NIGHT AS
MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE IN DEEPENING SW FLOW AND
WE BEGIN TO SEE SIGNIFICANT LIFT DEVELOP THROUGH A MUCH DEEPER
LAYER LATE IN PERIOD AND ON WED.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FORESEE MORE IN
THE WAY OF BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AS COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WEDGE WEAKENS AND IS DISPLACED WESTWARD.
THEREFORE...TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT AND
WILL FORECAST MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DOMINATED BY WEAK TROUGHING AT THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THE GUIDANCE IS WAVERING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE EAST OR WEAK TROUGHING. REGARDLESS AT THE
SURFACE...MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE WHICH NEVER GETS SWEPT OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PICKING UP
LINGERING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
ATTENDANT FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SLOWLY BY LATER THURSDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY LIMITED
DIURNAL RANGES WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SHOWERS STILL STREAMING ONSHORE AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND AT
FIRST AS WELL AS THE VISIBILITY IN THE SHOWERS...HOWEVER THINGS WILL
SETTLE IN AS IFR AT ALL TERMINALS IN 3-5 HOURS FROM NOW...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TIME HEIGHT INDICATES DRY AIR IN THE MID
LAYERS BY DAYBREAK...SO DO NOT THINK SHOWERS WILL BE AS PREVALENT TOMORROW.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS MOST OF THE EVENING...DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. MONDAY...SLOWLY RISING CEILINGS WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE MAY EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILINGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. GOOD CHANCE FOR VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WATERS
AMZ250...CONTINUED INTO EARLY MON MORNING WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SECONDS EASTERLY
SWELLS EVIDENT AT FRYING PAN BUOY ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW...PRODUCING A RISE IN SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS FROM CAPE
FEAR NORTHWARD.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE US COAST IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP UP A STEADY
STIFF E TO NELY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DUE
TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST...WINDS
AND SWELLS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY FETCH
WHILE SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR OVER MUCH OF THE SC COAST WINDS WILL BE
MORE NORTHERLY AND IN SOME CASES MORE OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SEAS
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL CONTINUE TO RUN THE HIGHEST. FOR NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR AND OUTER WATERS IN THE OFF SHORE AMZ252 ZONE...EXPECT 5
TO 7 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS HIGHEST NEAR THE
COAST AT 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS GREATEST AS YOU HEAD NORTH IN THE
OUTERMOST WATERS. SEAS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS AS YOU
MOVE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
MON THEN SLOWLY LIFT OUT DURING TUE. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND
STRONG NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WEAKEN MON AS
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT PROPAGATES NORTH. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT
THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK. THE 10 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANT INTO TUE AND THIS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...THE WEAKER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO DROP ABOUT A FOOT OR
SO. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS UP TO
4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS MON WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT BY TUE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A BETTER DEFINED NORTHEAST FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY. ESSENTIALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEYOND THIS A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10-15
KNOTS DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO 15-20 BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET
WEDNESDAY TO 4-7 FEET LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING SURROUNDING PERIOD OF THE HIGH TIDE. THIS
WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES FROM SURF CITY TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
AND ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. PERSISTENT
ON SHORE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS ALONG WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE RAISED TIDAL LEVELS TO GREATER THAN A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL. WE CAN EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT SLOWLY WANE AS WE PASS THE FULL MOON TONIGHT.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR LOCAL BEACHES WILL BE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM
THIS EVENING AND FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IT WILL OCCUR AROUND 10
PM. THIS WILL COINCIDE VERY CLOSELY WITH THE FULL MOON AT 1050 PM
THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR PENDER
AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES INTO TONIGHT AND FOR ALL BEACHES
ON MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RGZ/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
327 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST AND THEN FINALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT OUT DURING MONDAY. THE SURF ZONE WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS
THROUGH MONDAY. A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA
MID WEEK. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...RADAR SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS STREAMING INLAND FROM
SURF CITY TO ELIZABETHTOWN. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST ON
SHORE PUSH OF WINDS AND GREATEST LIFT. TO THE SOUTH FROM THE TIP
OF CAPE FEAR TO THE GRAND STRAND AND MOVING INLAND...BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WERE VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THICK CLOUD
COVER FARTHER INLAND...MAINLY WEST OF I95 AS WEDGE HOLDS ON. THE
BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SOME GREATER MIXING BRINGING DOWN
SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING UP TO 20 TO
25 KT ABOVE RADAR AND SOUNDINGS TO THE NORTH OVER THE CAPE FEAR
COAST SHOW WINDS AROUND 30 KT OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 3K FT.
OVERALL ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH THE CHANCES FOR
PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE WELL INLAND AND SHOWERS PUSHING FARTHER
INLAND. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR COAST.
LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE COAST TO A BROADER AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH RUNNING ALONG THE LEE OF
APPALACHIANS. THE SHALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERRUN BY PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN A MORE TYPICAL
WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS AT THE
SURFACE HAVE COME AROUND TO A MORE E-NE FLOW WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PRODUCING MORE
CONVECTIVE TYPE PCP. HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS PROGRESSING INLAND
WITH BETTER DIMINISHING COVERAGE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING.
THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE WAS MORE PREVALENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE
THE MORE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WERE PROVIDING SOME DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THE DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF COAST WILL
PROVIDE A STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN THE OVERALL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. ALTHOUGH IT DOES
DEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER IN PROVIDING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ACT TO
PULL THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WESTWARD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...AS YOU MOVE FARTHER INLAND THE GREATER NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE
THE COASTAL AREAS MAY GET A BREAK THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A
GREATER NOCTURNAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY GREAT QPF ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DO NOT EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
NOT DROPPING BELOW 70 MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY AND MAY EVEN MOVE ONSHORE FOR A TIME ON MON BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING OUT DURING TUE. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...99TH
PERCENTILE...REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH SOME SLIGHT DRYING
ON TUE AS THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH HAS BEEN EASTERLY
FOR DAYS...BECOMES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD SIGNAL
A CHANCE TO DRY OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE MAKES A RUN FOR THE NE GULF
COAST. THIS MAY NECESSITATE EVEN HIGHER POPS FOR TUE THAN ON
MON AND OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THUS...WILL BE KEEPING POPS ELEVATED AND AS HIGH AS LIKELY AND
INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUE/TUE NIGHT AS
MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE IN DEEPENING SW FLOW AND
WE BEGIN TO SEE SIGNIFICANT LIFT DEVELOP THROUGH A MUCH DEEPER
LAYER LATE IN PERIOD AND ON WED.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FORESEE MORE IN
THE WAY OF BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AS COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WEDGE WEAKENS AND IS DISPLACED WESTWARD.
THEREFORE...TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT AND
WILL FORECAST MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DOMINATED BY WEAK TROUGHING AT THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THE GUIDANCE IS WAVERING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE EAST OR WEAK TROUGHING. REGARDLESS AT THE
SURFACE...MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE WHICH NEVER GETS SWEPT OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PICKING UP
LINGERING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
ATTENDANT FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SLOWLY BY LATER THURSDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY LIMITED
DIURNAL RANGES WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WITH A MOIST NE FLOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS IFR CIGS
ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT WITH MVFR/TEMPO VFR AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KILM WHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS/TEMPO IFR IS OCCURRING. EXCEPT FOR CIGS BECOMING
MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO EXPECT THESE GENERAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR SHOULD BECOME LESS LIKELY AT
KILM AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
RE-DEVELOP. PATCHY GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS
BY MID MORNING WITH IFR PERSISTING AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS TEMPO MVFR PERSISTING
INTO FRIDAY.
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WATERS
AMZ250...CONTINUED INTO EARLY MON MORNING WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SECONDS EASTERLY
SWELLS EVIDENT AT FRYING PAN BUOY ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW...PRODUCING A RISE IN SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS FROM CAPE
FEAR NORTHWARD.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE US COAST IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP UP A STEADY
STIFF E TO NELY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DUE
TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST...WINDS
AND SWELLS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY FETCH
WHILE SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR OVER MUCH OF THE SC COAST WINDS WILL BE
MORE NORTHERLY AND IN SOME CASES MORE OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SEAS
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL CONTINUE TO RUN THE HIGHEST. FOR NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR AND OUTER WATERS IN THE OFF SHORE AMZ252 ZONE...EXPECT 5
TO 7 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS HIGHEST NEAR THE
COAST AT 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS GREATEST AS YOU HEAD NORTH IN THE
OUTERMOST WATERS. SEAS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS AS YOU
MOVE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
MON THEN SLOWLY LIFT OUT DURING TUE. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND
STRONG NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WEAKEN MON AS
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT PROPAGATES NORTH. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT
THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK. THE 10 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANT INTO TUE AND THIS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...THE WEAKER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO DROP ABOUT A FOOT OR
SO. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS UP TO
4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS MON WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT BY TUE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A BETTER DEFINED NORTHEAST FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY. ESSENTIALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEYOND THIS A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10-15
KNOTS DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO 15-20 BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET
WEDNESDAY TO 4-7 FEET LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING SURROUNDING PERIOD OF THE HIGH TIDE. THIS
WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES FROM SURF CITY TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
AND ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. PERSISTENT
ON SHORE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS ALONG WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE RAISED TIDAL LEVELS TO GREATER THAN A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL. WE CAN EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT SLOWLY WANE AS WE PASS THE FULL MOON TONIGHT.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR LOCAL BEACHES WILL BE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM
THIS EVENING AND FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IT WILL OCCUR AROUND 10
PM. THIS WILL COINCIDE VERY CLOSELY WITH THE FULL MOON AT 1050 PM
THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR PENDER
AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES INTO TONIGHT AND FOR ALL BEACHES
ON MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RGZ/MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RGZ/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
323 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST AND THEN FINALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT OUT DURING MONDAY. A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO
THE AREA MID WEEK. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE WEEK
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...RADAR SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS STREAMING INLAND FROM
SURF CITY TO ELIZABETHTOWN. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST ON
SHORE PUSH OF WINDS AND GREATEST LIFT. TO THE SOUTH FROM THE TIP
OF CAPE FEAR TO THE GRAND STRAND AND MOVING INLAND...BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WERE VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THICK CLOUD
COVER FARTHER INLAND...MAINLY WEST OF I95 AS WEDGE HOLDS ON. THE
BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SOME GREATER MIXING BRINGING DOWN
SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING UP TO 20 TO
25 KT ABOVE RADAR AND SOUNDINGS TO THE NORTH OVER THE CAPE FEAR
COAST SHOW WINDS AROUND 30 KT OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 3K FT.
OVERALL ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH THE CHANCES FOR
PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE WELL INLAND AND SHOWERS PUSHING FARTHER
INLAND. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR COAST.
LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE COAST TO A BROADER AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH RUNNING ALONG THE LEE OF
APPALACHIANS. THE SHALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERRUN BY PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN A MORE TYPICAL
WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS AT THE
SURFACE HAVE COME AROUND TO A MORE E-NE FLOW WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PRODUCING MORE
CONVECTIVE TYPE PCP. HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS PROGRESSING INLAND
WITH BETTER DIMINISHING COVERAGE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING.
THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE WAS MORE PREVALENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE
THE MORE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WERE PROVIDING SOME DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THE DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF COAST WILL
PROVIDE A STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN THE OVERALL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. ALTHOUGH IT DOES
DEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER IN PROVIDING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ACT TO
PULL THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WESTWARD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...AS YOU MOVE FARTHER INLAND THE GREATER NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE
THE COASTAL AREAS MAY GET A BREAK THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A
GREATER NOCTURNAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY GREAT QPF ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DO NOT EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
NOT DROPPING BELOW 70 MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY AND MAY EVEN MOVE ONSHORE FOR A TIME ON MON BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING OUT DURING TUE. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...99TH
PERCENTILE...REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH SOME SLIGHT DRYING
ON TUE AS THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH HAS BEEN EASTERLY
FOR DAYS...BECOMES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD SIGNAL
A CHANCE TO DRY OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE MAKES A RUN FOR THE NE GULF
COAST. THIS MAY NECESSITATE EVEN HIGHER POPS FOR TUE THAN ON
MON AND OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THUS...WILL BE KEEPING POPS ELEVATED AND AS HIGH AS LIKELY AND
INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUE/TUE NIGHT AS
MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE IN DEEPENING SW FLOW AND
WE BEGIN TO SEE SIGNIFICANT LIFT DEVELOP THROUGH A MUCH DEEPER
LAYER LATE IN PERIOD AND ON WED.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FORESEE MORE IN
THE WAY OF BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AS COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WEDGE WEAKENS AND IS DISPLACED WESTWARD.
THEREFORE...TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT AND
WILL FORECAST MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DOMINATED BY WEAK TROUGHING AT THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THE GUIDANCE IS WAVERING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE EAST OR WEAK TROUGHING. REGARDLESS AT THE
SURFACE...MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE WHICH NEVER GETS SWEPT OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PICKING UP
LINGERING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
ATTENDANT FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SLOWLY BY LATER THURSDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY LIMITED
DIURNAL RANGES WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WITH A MOIST NE FLOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS IFR CIGS
ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT WITH MVFR/TEMPO VFR AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KILM WHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS/TEMPO IFR IS OCCURRING. EXCEPT FOR CIGS BECOMING
MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO EXPECT THESE GENERAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR SHOULD BECOME LESS LIKELY AT
KILM AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
RE-DEVELOP. PATCHY GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS
BY MID MORNING WITH IFR PERSISTING AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS TEMPO MVFR PERSISTING
INTO FRIDAY.
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WATERS
AMZ250...CONTINUED INTO EARLY MON MORNING WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SECONDS EASTERLY
SWELLS EVIDENT AT FRYING PAN BUOY ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW...PRODUCING A RISE IN SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS FROM CAPE
FEAR NORTHWARD.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE US COAST IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP UP A STEADY
STIFF E TO NELY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DUE
TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST...WINDS
AND SWELLS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY FETCH
WHILE SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR OVER MUCH OF THE SC COAST WINDS WILL BE
MORE NORTHERLY AND IN SOME CASES MORE OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SEAS
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL CONTINUE TO RUN THE HIGHEST. FOR NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR AND OUTER WATERS IN THE OFF SHORE AMZ252 ZONE...EXPECT 5
TO 7 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS HIGHEST NEAR THE
COAST AT 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS GREATEST AS YOU HEAD NORTH IN THE
OUTERMOST WATERS. SEAS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS AS YOU
MOVE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
MON THEN SLOWLY LIFT OUT DURING TUE. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND
STRONG NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WEAKEN MON AS
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT PROPAGATES NORTH. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT
THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK. THE 10 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANT INTO TUE AND THIS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...THE WEAKER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO DROP ABOUT A FOOT OR
SO. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS UP TO
4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS MON WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT BY TUE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A BETTER DEFINED NORTHEAST FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY. ESSENTIALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEYOND THIS A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10-15
KNOTS DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO 15-20 BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET
WEDNESDAY TO 4-7 FEET LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING SURROUNDING PERIOD OF THE HIGH TIDE. THIS
WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES FROM SURF CITY TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
AND ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. PERSISTENT
ON SHORE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS ALONG WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE RAISED TIDAL LEVELS TO GREATER THAN A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL. WE CAN EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT SLOWLY WANE AS WE PASS THE FULL MOON TONIGHT.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR LOCAL BEACHES WILL BE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM
THIS EVENING AND FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IT WILL OCCUR AROUND 10
PM. THIS WILL COINCIDE VERY CLOSELY WITH THE FULL MOON AT 1050 PM
THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR PENDER
AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES INTO TONIGHT AND FOR ALL BEACHES
ON MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RGZ/MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
306 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...RADAR SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS STREAMING INLAND FROM
SURF CITY TO ELIZABETHTOWN. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST ON
SHORE PUSH OF WINDS AND GREATEST LIFT. TO THE SOUTH FROM THE TIP
OF CAPE FEAR TO THE GRAND STRAND AND MOVING INLAND...BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WERE VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THICK CLOUD
COVER FARTHER INLAND...MAINLY WEST OF I95 AS WEDGE HOLDS ON. THE
BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SOME GREATER MIXING BRINGING DOWN
SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING UP TO 20 TO
25 KTS ABOVE RADAR AND SOUNDINGS TO THE NORTH OVER THE CAPE FEAR
COAST SHOW WINDS AROUND 30 KTS OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 3K FT.
OVERALL ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH THE CHANCES FOR
PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE WELL INLAND AND SHOWERS PUSHING FARTHER
INLAND. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR COAST.
LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE COAST TO A BROADER AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH RUNNING ALONG THE LEE OF
APPALACHIANS. THE SHALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERRUN BY PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN A MORE TYPICAL
WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS AT THE
SURFACE HAVE COME AROUND TO A MORE E-NE FLOW WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PRODUCING MORE
CONVECTIVE TYPE PCP. HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS PROGRESSING INLAND
WITH BETTER DIMINISHING COVERAGE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING.
THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE WAS MORE PREVALENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE
THE MORE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WERE PROVIDING SOME DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THE DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF COAST WILL
PROVIDE A STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN THE OVERALL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. ALTHOUGH IT DOES
DEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER IN PROVIDING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ACT TO
PULL THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WESTWARD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...AS YOU MOVE FARTHER INLAND THE GREATER NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE
THE COASTAL AREAS MAY GET A BREAK THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A
GREATER NOCTURNAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY GREAT QPF ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DO NOT EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
NOT DROPPING BELOW 70 MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... THE SHORT TERM PERIOD APPEARS TO BE A
CONTINUATION OF ONE OF THE LONGER CLOUDY STRETCHES WE`VE SEEN IN A
WHILE. MONDAY KEEPS THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE LOCKED INTO
THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND A GOMEX IMPULSE TO
BRING SOME WEAK PVA. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE BOLSTERED FROM RECENT
DAYS BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT NHC IS GIVING A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
(THOUGH WORTH NOTING THAT IT WILL NOT APPROACH LAND). THE PREVALENCE
OF CLOUD AND PERHAPS LIGHT RAIN MAKING THE COOLER GFS-BASED MOS MORE
APPEALING THAN THE WRF-BASED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND TURNS TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. ALSO SOME MOISTURE AND VORTICITY CENTERS
STREAM OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
HIT 80 AND SOME LIGHT RAIN IN MANY PLACES...WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGHER
QPF WELL INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY
DECELERATES SOME AND MAY STILL BE CLOSE BY ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW
SHOWERS THURSDAY MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES. COOL AND DRY ADVECTION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS NEAR
60/UPPER 50S BUT ALSO THE FIRST SUNSHINE THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED IN
QUITE A WHILE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WITH A MOIST NE FLOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS IFR CIGS ARE
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT WITH MVFR/TEMPO VFR AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KILM WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS/TEMPO IFR IS OCCURRING. EXCEPT FOR CIGS BECOMING MVFR AT
KFLO/KLBT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO EXPECT THESE GENERAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR SHOULD BECOME LESS LIKELY AT KILM AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
RE-DEVELOP. PATCHY GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS
BY MID MORNING WITH IFR PERSISTING AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS TEMPO MVFR PERSISTING
INTO FRIDAY.
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WATERS
AMZ250...CONTINUED INTO EARLY MON MORNING WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SECONDS EASTERLY
SWELLS EVIDENT AT FRYING PAN BUOY ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW...PRODUCING A RISE IN SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS FROM CAPE
FEAR NORTHWARD.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE US COAST IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP UP A STEADY
STIFF E TO NELY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DUE
TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST...WINDS
AND SWELLS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY FETCH
WHILE SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR OVER MUCH OF THE SC COAST WINDS WILL BE
MORE NORTHERLY AND IN SOME CASES MORE OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SEAS
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL CONTINUE TO RUN THE HIGHEST. FOR NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR AND OUTER WATERS IN THE OFF SHORE AMZ252 ZONE...EXPECT 5
TO 7 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS HIGHEST NEAR THE
COAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS AND SEAS GREATEST AS YOU HEAD NORTH IN THE
OUTERMOST WATERS. SEAS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS AS YOU
MOVE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... ALL TOO FAMILIAR EASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ON
MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF FLORIDA. MUCH OF
THE SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FAIRLY LONG FETCH WILL BE
CHANNELED INTO THE OUTER BANKS AND LOCALIZED WAVE SHADOWING KEEPS
SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE ACCORDING TO WNA/SWAN BLEND. FLOW TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND VEER A BIT ON TUESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH
LOSES ITS RIDGE AXIS INTO THE U.S. AND THE LOW WEAKENS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
VEER AND PICK UP LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THIS INCREASE MAY BE A CATEGORY OR TWO AND SEAS
COULD BUILD TO WHERE SCEC IS NEEDED THOUGH THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT
WILL ACT TO HOLD BACK NEAR SHORE WAVE HEIGHTS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND THE GRADIENT MAY BECOME PINCHED AS
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR
BORDERLINE OF SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING SURROUNDING PERIOD OF THE HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL IMPACT THE
BEACHES FROM SURF CITY TO MURRELLS INLET AND ALONG THE CAPE FEAR
RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. PERSISTENT ON SHORE WINDS AND LONG
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS ALONG WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE
RAISED TIDAL LEVELS TO GREATER THAN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. WE CAN
EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT
SLOWLY WANE AS WE PASS THE FULL MOON TONIGHT. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
FOR LOCAL BEACHES WILL BE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING AND FOR
THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IT WILL OCCUR AROUND 10 PM. THIS WILL COINCIDE
VERY CLOSELY WITH THE FULL MOON AT 1050 PM THIS EVENING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB/CRM
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS WEST OF THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GULF AND OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE MID WEEK TIME
FRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1010 AM SUNDAY...RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INLAND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON THE
COAST CONTINUING. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDIATES PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING INLAND DESPITE DEEPER LAYER LIFT
ABATING...AND HAVE ADDED AREAS DRIZZLE TO THE FCST AS SNDGS
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY CONTIUING THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
RETAINED LIKELY POPS REST OF THE DAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF AND COASTAL
AREAS.
PREV DISC...GOOD ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRES TO THE N AND WEAK LOW TO THE S. THIS FLOW WILL CONT TO PUMP
LOTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH GOOD CVRG OF SHRA EXPECTED.
HAVE POPS RANGING FROM LIKELY INLAND TO CAT CST. STILL COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIF FLOODING
NOT EXPECTED TO SO WILL DROP FLOOD WATCH. WILL CONT TO HAVE MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES HOWEVER MAY BRIGHTEN A BIT THIS AFTN A FEW SPOTS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE. WILL REMAIN WINDY ALONG
THE OBX AND BREEZY INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...THE CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FEED OF
MOIST AIR WEAKENS WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. CONVERGENCE VIA
THE WEAKENING COASTAL TROF WILL STILL SUPPORT LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
AT THE COAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LESSER CHANCES
FARTHER INLAND. CONT ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
WITH LOWS 65 TO 70 INLAND AND 70 TO 75 BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFIDENCE THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH THE 27/00Z MODEL SUITE. AN INTERESTING WX PATTERN
DEVELOPS ON MONDAY DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRYING TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS UNDERNEATH A WEAK UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SAME
REGION. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THIS AREA ONLY A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO ELONGATE WEST TO EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THE STRONG RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK LOW OFF THE
BAHAMAS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK LOW WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT MAY LIFT NORTHEAST
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
APPEARS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER FEATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DEVOLVING INTO
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION, WITH PWATS AGAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES.
LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO
WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEK. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS NEAR THE REGION. A WEAK INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH MAY
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, MAKING
WIND AND PRECIP FORECASTS TRICKY AS THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LARGELY DETERMINE THE SENSIBLE WX. OTHERWISE, THERE CONTINUES
TO BE SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW THAT MAY
EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO LACK OF AGREEMENT, WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME, THOUGH OVERALL THEME IS
UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS THOUGH ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND CONTINUED HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MED/LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA BY FRIDAY...MEANING DRYING HIGH PRES
WOULD FINALLY SETTLE INTO E NC. WILL RETAIN SMALL POPS HOWEVER...ESP
NEAR THE COAST...AS ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FIELDS BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUITE
A BIT INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TROUGH AXIS BEYOND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...PLENTIFUL LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS LED TO QUITE
A BIT OF IFR OVERNIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS AND HRRR SUGGEST THIS SHLD
LIFT TO MVFR THIS MORN THEN MVFR/VFR THIS AFTN AND EVENING. OCNL
SHRA WILL CONT ESPCLY THIS MORN. TONIGHT COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SUB
VFR AND POSS IFR LATE AS WINDS CONT TO DIMINISH WITH LOW LVLS
REMAINING SATURATED. NE WINDS WILL CONT TO GUST AOA 20 KTS MOST OF
TODAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH DECREASING PRECIP COVERAGE. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RAIN/SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BY
MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM SUN...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO REMOVED SCA
FROM ALL RIVERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND...AS MODELS DO NOT INDICATE
ANOTHER SURGE IN EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE
COULD BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT HERE AND THERE THOUGH NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO RETAIN HEADLINES. NO OTHER CHANGES TO OTHER
HEADLINES AS GUSTY EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH SEAS.
PREV DISC...MODERATE TO STRONG ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND WEAK LOW TO THE S. SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY DIMINISHING ALONG THE CST SO WILL DROP GALES WITH SCA ALL
WATERS. AS WINDS DIMINISH THRU THE DAY THE SCA WILL GRAD COME DOWN
ON THE RIVERS. GRDNT BEGINS TO RELAX A BIT MORE TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH SLIDES E AND WEAKENS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW SCA ALL
WTRS LATE.
SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE PERIOD ESPCLY CNTRL AND NRN WTRS.
SEAS OF 10 TO 16 FT N OF OCRACOKE EARLY WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TO 7 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT. OVER THE SRN OUTER WATERS SEAS WILL BE 7
TO 9 FT EARLY AND DROP TO 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS PERSISTENT MODERATE NE/E
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DOMINATE.
WIND SPEEDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK
INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION, WITH
STRONGER GFS INDICATING A CLOSER OFFSHORE LOW BRINGING NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS, WHILE THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE ECMWF
INDICATING SCA NE WINDS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PREFERRED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE FOR SUPERIOR SPATIAL RESOLUTION WITH ELEVATED SEAS
ALONG THE NEAR-SH0RE WATERS ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS.
EXTENDED RANGE WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE AS WINDS/SEAS RAMP
UP IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 230 AM SUN...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWIFT
CREEK ABOVE STREETS LANDING AT VANCEBORO. THE LEVEL IS DROPPING A
BIT NOW WITH LOW TIDE BUT AS HIGH TIDE OCCURS LATER THIS MORNING
COULD AGAIN BRIEFLY GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WITH WINDS LIGHTER TODAY
MAY DROP AND STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER. THE PUNGO RIVER AT
BELHAVEN HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND FLOOD STAGE PAST 24 HRS, SINCE
THIS IS FROM TIDAL DEPARTURES DUE TO THE ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED HIGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVRY
FOR OBX N OF HATTERAS THRU EARLY MON MORN WITH CONT ONSHORE WINDS
AND LARGE SURF. WITH WINDS A BIT LIGHTER TODAY OVER SRN PAMLICO
SOUND HAVE LOWERED THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TO AN ADVISORY FOR
CARTERET/CRAVEN AND PAMLICO COUNTIES AND CONT ADVISORY FOR
BEAUFORT COUNTY THRU THIS EVENING. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED BY 2 TO 3 FEET...POSS 3.5 FEET IN LOCAL SPOTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ080-
093>095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/TL
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG/TL
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG/TL
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
657 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS WEST OF THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GULF AND OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE MID WEEK TIME
FRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIF CHANGES PLANNED AS RDR SHOWS
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS CONT TO MOVE ONSHORE
AND SPREAD INLAND. PRECIP DIMINISHES AS MOVES INLAND BUT SHLD
HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO CONT LIKELY POPS INLAND TO CAT COAST.
PREV DISC...GOOD ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRES TO THE N AND WEAK LOW TO THE S. THIS FLOW WILL CONT TO PUMP
LOTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH GOOD CVRG OF SHRA EXPECTED.
HAVE POPS RANGING FROM LIKELY INLAND TO CAT CST. STILL COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIF FLOODING
NOT EXPECTED TO SO WILL DROP FLOOD WATCH. WILL CONT TO HAVE MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES HOWEVER MAY BRIGHTEN A BIT THIS AFTN A FEW SPOTS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE. WILL REMAIN WINDY ALONG
THE OBX AND BREEZY INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...THE CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FEED OF
MOIST AIR WEAKENS WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. CONVERGENCE VIA
THE WEAKENING COASTAL TROF WILL STILL SUPPORT LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
AT THE COAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LESSER CHANCES
FARTHER INLAND. CONT ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
WITH LOWS 65 TO 70 INLAND AND 70 TO 75 BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFIDENCE THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH THE 27/00Z MODEL SUITE. AN INTERESTING WX PATTERN
DEVELOPS ON MONDAY DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRYING TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS UNDERNEATH A WEAK UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SAME
REGION. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THIS AREA ONLY A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO ELONGATE WEST TO EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THE STRONG RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK LOW OFF THE
BAHAMAS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK LOW WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT MAY LIFT NORTHEAST
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
APPEARS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER FEATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DEVOLVING INTO
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION, WITH PWATS AGAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES.
LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO
WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEK. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS NEAR THE REGION. A WEAK INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH MAY
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, MAKING
WIND AND PRECIP FORECASTS TRICKY AS THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LARGELY DETERMINE THE SENSIBLE WX. OTHERWISE, THERE CONTINUES
TO BE SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW THAT MAY
EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO LACK OF AGREEMENT, WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME, THOUGH OVERALL THEME IS
UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS THOUGH ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND CONTINUED HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MED/LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA BY FRIDAY...MEANING DRYING HIGH PRES
WOULD FINALLY SETTLE INTO E NC. WILL RETAIN SMALL POPS HOWEVER...ESP
NEAR THE COAST...AS ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FIELDS BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUITE
A BIT INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TROUGH AXIS BEYOND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...PLENTIFUL LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS LED TO QUITE
A BIT OF IFR OVERNIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS AND HRRR SUGGEST THIS SHLD
LIFT TO MVFR THIS MORN THEN MVFR/VFR THIS AFTN AND EVENING. OCNL
SHRA WILL CONT ESPCLY THIS MORN. TONIGHT COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SUB
VFR AND POSS IFR LATE AS WINDS CONT TO DIMINISH WITH LOW LVLS
REMAINING SATURATED. NE WINDS WILL CONT TO GUST AOA 20 KTS MOST OF
TODAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH DECREASING PRECIP COVERAGE. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RAIN/SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BY
MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...HAVE SEEN WINDS INCREASE A BIT CNTRL
WTRS/PAMLICO SOUND PAST HOUR OR SO AND BULK OF THE MDLS SHOWED
THIS. FOR NOW STAYING MAINLY BELOW GALE AND WILL KEEP JUST BELOW
BUT MONITOR CLOSELY NEXT FEW HRS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH CONT
VERY ROUGH SEAS TODAY PER PERSISTENT MOD/STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.
PREV DISC...MODERATE TO STRONG ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND WEAK LOW TO THE S. SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY DIMINISHING ALONG THE CST SO WILL DROP GALES WITH SCA ALL
WATERS. AS WINDS DIMINISH THRU THE DAY THE SCA WILL GRAD COME DOWN
ON THE RIVERS. GRDNT BEGINS TO RELAX A BIT MORE TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH SLIDES E AND WEAKENS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW SCA ALL
WTRS LATE.
SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE PERIOD ESPCLY CNTRL AND NRN WTRS.
SEAS OF 10 TO 16 FT N OF OCRACOKE EARLY WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TO 7 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT. OVER THE SRN OUTER WATERS SEAS WILL BE 7
TO 9 FT EARLY AND DROP TO 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS PERSISTENT MODERATE NE/E
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DOMINATE.
WIND SPEEDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK
INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION, WITH
STRONGER GFS INDICATING A CLOSER OFFSHORE LOW BRINGING NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS, WHILE THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE ECMWF
INDICATING SCA NE WINDS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PREFERRED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE FOR SUPERIOR SPATIAL RESOLUTION WITH ELEVATED SEAS
ALONG THE NEAR-SH0RE WATERS ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS.
EXTENDED RANGE WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE AS WINDS/SEAS RAMP
UP IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 230 AM SUN...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWIFT
CREEK ABOVE STREETS LANDING AT VANCEBORO. THE LEVEL IS DROPPING A
BIT NOW WITH LOW TIDE BUT AS HIGH TIDE OCCURS LATER THIS MORNING
COULD AGAIN BRIEFLY GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WITH WINDS LIGHTER TODAY
MAY DROP AND STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER. THE PUNGO RIVER AT
BELHAVEN HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND FLOOD STAGE PAST 24 HRS, SINCE
THIS IS FROM TIDAL DEPARTURES DUE TO THE ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED HIGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVRY
FOR OBX N OF HATTERAS THRU EARLY MON MORN WITH CONT ONSHORE WINDS
AND LARGE SURF. WITH WINDS A BIT LIGHTER TODAY OVER SRN PAMLICO
SOUND HAVE LOWERED THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TO AN ADVISORY FOR
CARTERET/CRAVEN AND PAMLICO COUNTIES AND CONT ADVISORY FOR
BEAUFORT COUNTY THRU THIS EVENING. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED BY 2 TO 3 FEET...POSS 3.5 FEET IN LOCAL SPOTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ080-
093>095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG/TL
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1240 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
TEMPERATURES ALONG TO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE JUMPED TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY NOON TIME. INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO ONLY ADJUSTED
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST TO RADAR TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED
ENSEMBLE OF THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON ONGOING SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...TO NEAR BOTTINEAU...GARRISON...TO BOWMAN. WINDS
WERE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND IT.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF/BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING
THE JAMESTOWN AREA AROUND NOON AND FARGO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BY AROUND NOON. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH CENTRAL. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE 40S SOUTH. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH.
KEPT LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
OUTSIDE OF FROST POTENTIAL TUESDAY MORNING...RATHER QUIET AND NEAR
SEASONABLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL...ALBEIT
COOLER THAN THE RECENT WARMTH...HIGHS IN THE 60S. GIVEN THE COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
30S AND FROST ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...FAVORING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...BY THIS
TIME...THE 00 UTC SUITE ENVELOP OF SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO WIDEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATER
TONIGHT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AT KDIK
AND KBIS...ALTHOUGH CHANCES TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR EITHER SITE. VFR THROUGH THE 18Z
PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
926 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY NOON TIME. INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO ONLY ADJUSTED
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST TO RADAR TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED
ENSEMBLE OF THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON ONGOING SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...TO NEAR BOTTINEAU...GARRISON...TO BOWMAN. WINDS
WERE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND IT.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF/BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING
THE JAMESTOWN AREA AROUND NOON AND FARGO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BY AROUND NOON. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH CENTRAL. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE 40S SOUTH. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH.
KEPT LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
OUTSIDE OF FROST POTENTIAL TUESDAY MORNING...RATHER QUIET AND NEAR
SEASONABLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL...ALBEIT
COOLER THAN THE RECENT WARMTH...HIGHS IN THE 60S. GIVEN THE COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
30S AND FROST ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...FAVORING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...BY THIS
TIME...THE 00 UTC SUITE ENVELOP OF SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO WIDEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL BKN-OVC CLOUDS
NORTH WILL DECREASE WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LATER TONIGHT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AT KDIK AND KBIS...ALTHOUGH CHANCES TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR EITHER SITE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
631 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST TO RADAR TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED
ENSEMBLE OF THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON ONGOING SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...TO NEAR BOTTINEAU...GARRISON...TO BOWMAN. WINDS
WERE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND IT.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF/BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING
THE JAMESTOWN AREA AROUND NOON AND FARGO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BY AROUND NOON. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH CENTRAL. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE 40S SOUTH. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH.
KEPT LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
OUTSIDE OF FROST POTENTIAL TUESDAY MORNING...RATHER QUIET AND NEAR
SEASONABLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL...ALBEIT
COOLER THAN THE RECENT WARMTH...HIGHS IN THE 60S. GIVEN THE COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
30S AND FROST ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...FAVORING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...BY THIS
TIME...THE 00 UTC SUITE ENVELOP OF SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO WIDEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
AT 6 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA...TO NEAR THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR KBIS TO NEAR KHEI. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SHOULD REACH KFAR AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.
MAINLY SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY
IN THE VICINITY OF KISN UNTIL AROUND 13Z AND AROUND KMOT UNTIL
AROUND 14Z. LATER TONIGHT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS KDIK/KBIS BUT CHANCES TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THIS 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST OFF
THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MODELS SHOW INCREASING MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SE. THE QUESTION SILL REMAINS HOW MUCH PRECIP SURVIVES
THE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THE HRRR SHOWS NO MEASURABLE
PRECIP INTO THE CWA UNTIL AT LEAST 08Z. THE RAP LATEST RUN HAS
NOTHING MEASURABLE UNTIL AFTER 12Z. STILL BELIEVE PRECIP DESERVES
A MENTION BUT WILL DECREASE POPS MORE.
MAV LOWS WERE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND WHILE OUR BIAS GUIDANCE SHOULD BE CATCHING UP HAVE ADDED A
DEGREE OR TWO TO LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS FROM YNG TO ERI DOWN TO LOW CHANCE POPS WEST.
MEANWHILE THE MAV IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CONSISTENT WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY AT MNN AND
FDY. DIFFERENCES PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WELL WITH
THE MET WETTER ON BALANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MAV WETTER MONDAY.
THROUGH MONDAY WILL GO WITH THE SREF KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES
TO THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER WEST. MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE
MOVES EAST SO WILL BACK OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE. TUESDAY MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THAT AND THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AND ADD THUNDER FOR THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LASTING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...LOWERING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE FAIRLY
MILD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT LOOKS RATHER DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT THE
COOLER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CLOUD
COVER TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
THEN DOMINATE THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE
BEYOND THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF STILL TRYING TO DIG AN UPPER LOW
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. INTERESTING HOW THIS SEEMS TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR
NOW.
IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT IT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS BACKING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS
BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE THOUGH AND
LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE RELUCTANT TO FORM ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA BUT CEILINGS 035-040 WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING. A SPRINKLE OR PASSING SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF FORECASTS SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS REDUCING CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING
MAINLY NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEAKENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DECREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS
ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND ANY 4 FOOTERS OUT THERE WILL BE
SUBSIDING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL DIRECT THE LARGER WAVES TOWARD THE
CANADIAN SHORELINE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE BUT IT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD. SOME OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE THOUGH IS SUGGESTING SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS. THE
HIGH BUILDS IN AND DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS HIGH AND A
DEPARTING LOW UP THE EAST COAST...THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL
BE DETERMINED. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED WINDS/WAVES FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TO THE POINT THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY IN
OUR FUTURE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE
TUESDAY...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL FOCUS ON THE FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW AFFECTS PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
INTERESTING TO WATCH THE NEW 00Z NAM COME IN...BUT MOSTLY FOR WHAT
IT SAYS FOR TUES/NIGHT. IN THE NEAR-TERM...NO CHANGES FORSEEN AS
THE SPRINKLES ARE WELL-HANDLED AND REAL ORGANIZATION TO THE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
745 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WANING ALREADY AND HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND.
THE SPRINKLES OUT THERE NOW MAY MAKE THE GROUND WET...BUT THEY ARE
ALSO MOVING ALONG QUICKLY. THEREFORE A 20 POP IS ALL THAT IS
NECESSARY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY 09Z...SOME
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SLIDE INTO THE NWRN COS.
PREV...
PLUME OF 1.5" PW POOLED AHEAD OF SHEARING 5H TROF WITHIN 850 MB
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS MAINTAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL WANE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WEAK FORCING IN VERY MOIST AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
ANY APPRECIABLE QPF TONIGHT...DESPITE THE COPIOUS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER AND SURGING DWPT WILL TRANSLATE TO A MILD
NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH MINS BTWN 60 AND 65F FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SET UP ON TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE INTERESTING WITH
TIME...WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FIRST THINGS FIRST HOWEVER...GULF COAST
UPPER CUTOFF WILL DIRECT A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA ON TUESDAY...WHILE
A SLOW MOVING SFC FRONT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKES AND INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL
BE CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES AND INCREASING CHC OF SHRA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ISOLATED TSTORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE DESTABLIZE THE
WARM SECTOR...WHICH REACHES +15C AT 850 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MY SOUTH. RAISED POPS FROM LIKELY TO CATEG ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL COMING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS PACKAGE.
INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. THIS BASED LARGELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS THIS
AFT...WHICH SHOW CLOUD ELEMENTS OVER EASTERN NC WORKING NW.
SITUATION LOOKS LIKE A PRE EVENT. SOME MEMBERS OVER 6 INCHES
OF RAIN...BUT THAT LOOKS A LITTLE HIGH. 1 TO 3 WITH SOME
HIGHER AMTS LOOKS BETTER. CAN HANDLE THIS AMT OK...UNLESS
ALL IN A SHORT TIME INTERVAL. LATER SHIFTS CAN ISSUE WATCHES
IF NEEDED.
DID UP POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED AM...AND PUT CHC OF THUNDER
IN FCST.
DID NOT DO MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES.
LATER WED INTO EARLY FRIDAY...LEAST CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
STILL LOOKING WET FOR SAT...BUT STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODELS.
LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WOULD LIFT OUT FAST ENOUGH TO
HAVE PART OF SUNDAY SEEING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.
WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR MONDAY.
MORE DETAIL BELOW.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SIG RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PA
TUES NIGHT/WED...AS SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWATS NR 3SD ABV NORMAL...COMBINED WITH
MDL INSTABILITY AND SLOW MOVING FRONT SUPPORT THE IDEA OF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD 1+ INCH AMTS...WITH MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS. GIVEN
THE RECENT DRYNESS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING NOT A CONCERN. HOWEVER...WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO.
CONFIDENCE IN LINGERING WET WX APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
CENTRAL PA LATE THIS WEEK...AS ALL MDLS HAVE CONVERGED ON IDEA OF
A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW CRAWLING
UP THE MID ATL COAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE THU-SAT TIME
FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE...NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
TEMPS BLW CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE RELATIVELY QUIET NOW...QUIET BEFORE THE STORM.
MODELS AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW CEILINGS WILL EXPAND
OVERNIGHT BUT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR SHOULD DEVELOP.
BY SUNRISE THERE WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR.
MODELS STILL SHOW RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY FROM NW TO
SE. TIMED THE RAIN BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SREF. THIS
SHOWS RAPID INCREASE CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR IN NORTHWEST
AREAS NEAR KBFD BY 10-12Z. RAIN SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
TRIED TO SHOW TIMING OF MORE ORGANIZED RAIN THROUGH JST-AOO-UNV-
IPT AND MDT/LNS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD GET A GOOD RAINFALL BEST RAIN AND
LOWERED CIGS/VIS AT THIS TIME COULD BE OVER CENTRAL PA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DID NOT PUT THUNDER IN TAFS BUT
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IS AN ISSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF
GENERALLY 5-10MPH IN THE SHALLOW COOL MOIST AIR. THE WARM AIR
LIFTING OVER THIS TUESDAY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF OUR RAIN.
THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. MVFR
AND IFR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLE LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG AND
MORE INTENSE RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS AND RAIN LIKELY...MOVING WEST TO EAST.
TUE NIGHT...LOW CIGS/RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY.
WED...LOW CIGS EARLY. RAIN TO SCT SHOWERS IN AFTERNOON.
THU...MAINLY VFR/MFVR AM FOG AND ISOLD SHOWERS.
FRI-SAT...CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1029 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE
TUESDAY...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL FOCUS ON THE FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW AFFECTS PORTIONS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
745 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WANING ALREADY AND HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND.
THE SPRINKLES OUT THERE NOW MAY MAKE THE GROUND WET...BUT THEY ARE
ALSO MOVING ALONG QUICKLY. THEREFORE A 20 POP IS ALL THAT IS
NECESSARY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY 09Z...SOME
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SLIDE INTO THE NWRN COS.
PREV...
PLUME OF 1.5" PW POOLED AHEAD OF SHEARING 5H TROF WITHIN 850 MB
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS MAINTAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL WANE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WEAK FORCING IN VERY MOIST AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
ANY APPRECIABLE QPF TONIGHT...DESPITE THE COPIOUS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER AND SURGING DWPT WILL TRANSLATE TO A MILD
NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH MINS BTWN 60 AND 65F FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SET UP ON TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE INTERESTING WITH
TIME...WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FIRST THINGS FIRST HOWEVER...GULF COAST
UPPER CUTOFF WILL DIRECT A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA ON TUESDAY...WHILE
A SLOW MOVING SFC FRONT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKES AND INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL
BE CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES AND INCREASING CHC OF SHRA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ISOLATED TSTORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE DESTABLIZE THE
WARM SECTOR...WHICH REACHES +15C AT 850 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MY SOUTH. RAISED POPS FROM LIKELY TO CATEG ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL COMING
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS...
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS PACKAGE.
INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. THIS BASED LARGELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS THIS
AFT...WHICH SHOW CLOUD ELEMENTS OVER EASTERN NC WORKING NW.
SITUATION LOOKS LIKE A PRE EVENT. SOME MEMBERS OVER 6 INCHES
OF RAIN...BUT THAT LOOKS A LITTLE HIGH. 1 TO 3 WITH SOME
HIGHER AMTS LOOKS BETTER. CAN HANDLE THIS AMT OK...UNLESS
ALL IN A SHORT TIME INTERVAL. LATER SHIFTS CAN ISSUE WATCHES
IF NEEDED.
DID UP POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED AM...AND PUT CHC OF THUNDER
IN FCST.
DID NOT DO MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES.
LATER WED INTO EARLY FRIDAY...LEAST CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
STILL LOOKING WET FOR SAT...BUT STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODELS.
LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WOULD LIFT OUT FAST ENOUGH TO
HAVE PART OF SUNDAY SEEING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.
WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR MONDAY.
MORE DETAIL BELOW.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SIG RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PA
TUES NIGHT/WED...AS SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWATS NR 3SD ABV NORMAL...COMBINED WITH
MDL INSTABILITY AND SLOW MOVING FRONT SUPPORT THE IDEA OF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD 1+ INCH AMTS...WITH MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS. GIVEN
THE RECENT DRYNESS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING NOT A CONCERN. HOWEVER...WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO.
CONFIDENCE IN LINGERING WET WX APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
CENTRAL PA LATE THIS WEEK...AS ALL MDLS HAVE CONVERGED ON IDEA OF
A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW CRAWLING
UP THE MID ATL COAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE THU-SAT TIME
FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE...NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
TEMPS BLW CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE RELATIVELY QUIET NOW...QUIET BEFORE THE STORM.
MODELS AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW CEILINGS WILL EXPAND
OVERNIGHT BUT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR SHOULD DEVELOP.
BY SUNRISE THERE WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR.
MODELS STILL SHOW RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY FROM NW TO
SE. TIMED THE RAIN BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SREF. THIS
SHOWS RAPID INCREASE CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR IN NORTHWEST
AREAS NEAR KBFD BY 10-12Z. RAIN SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
TRIED TO SHOW TIMING OF MORE ORGANIZED RAIN THROUGH JST-AOO-UNV-
IPT AND MDT/LNS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD GET A GOOD RAINFALL BEST RAIN AND
LOWERED CIGS/VIS AT THIS TIME COULD BE OVER CENTRAL PA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DID NOT PUT THUNDER IN TAFS BUT
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IS AN ISSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF
GENERALLY 5-10MPH IN THE SHALLOW COOL MOIST AIR. THE WARM AIR
LIFTING OVER THIS TUESDAY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF OUR RAIN.
THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. MVFR
AND IFR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLE LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG AND
MORE INTENSE RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS AND RAIN LIKELY...MOVING WEST TO EAST.
TUE NIGHT...LOW CIGS/RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY.
WED...LOW CIGS EARLY. RAIN TO SCT SHOWERS IN AFTERNOON.
THU...MAINLY VFR/MFVR AM FOG AND ISOLD SHOWERS.
FRI-SAT...CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
259 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER TROF WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY...THEN
STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS
IN REDUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NY STATE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ACROSS WV AND VA LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE ANOMALOUS ESE FLOW WILL
KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS GOING. HRRR NOW SHOWS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MY CWA THIS EVENING OVER WV
AND VA. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS REMAINS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
INTO THIS EVENING.
DESPITE THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTS TO
SUPPORT A MAINLY DRY FCST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...WHERE SFC RIDGE AND LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL LIE. LINGERING
FETCH INTO THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL KEEP A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY THERE...BUT IT WILL BE LIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL KEEP
THINGS MILDER NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MINS WITH MINS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
OFFSHORE HIGH RETREATS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WITH EASTERLY
FETCH DECREASING AS A RESULT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME INCREASES
OVER PA AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. FORCING
REMAINS WEAK ON MONDAY...BUT THE SERLY LOW LVL FLOW AND ASSOC
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL KEEP THINGS CLOUDY FOR MOST. WEAK UPPER
TROF APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS...ESP ACROSS THE WEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE NEXT WEEK...ALL
OF WHICH PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...THEN DEVELOP A SLOW-MOVING COASTAL LOW ON STALLED FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENT OF CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE OHIO VALLEY.
BASED ON LATEST 00Z OPER AND ENS GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE TUES/TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC WITH FROPA.
CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT TSRA ACROSS NW PA TUE AFTN/EVEN...WHERE SOME
MODEST CAPES NOTED IN THE LATEST GEFS OUTPUT.
CONFIDENCE IN A LONG DURATION SOAKING RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS
WEEK...AS ALL MDLS HAVE CONVERGED ON IDEA OF A CUT OFF LOW FORMING
OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW CRAWLING UP THE MID ATL
COAST. INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH A 4-6 DAY FCST REMAIN...SO UNABLE
TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL.
HOWEVER...A SWATH OF SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL APPEARS QUITE
POSSIBLE EITHER OVER PA OR VIRGINIA. GEFS QPF PLUMES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA INDICATE LATE WEEK RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM ZERO
TO 3-4 INCHES. ATTM...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE WED-SAT TIME
FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO LATE WEEK
RAIN...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS TAKING TUMBLE
AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE. NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
TEMPS AOB CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY WEAK UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
AND CIG REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN MTNS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E/SE AT
SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 5-10MPH...WITH SOME BREEZINESS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
AS OVERALL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MON...FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
SPREAD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR DECK WILL
SETTLE IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MVFR IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
LOW CIGS PERSIST INTO MON...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT BEING
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. MAY EVEN REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NW
HALF OF CWA WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND.
OUTLOOK...
MON...INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN/LOW CIGS... FOCUSED
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN HALF.
TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS LIKELY...ESP NW HALF.
TUE NIGHT...LOW CIGS/SCT SHOWERS.
WED...LOW CIGS NW MTNS EARLY. CHC SHOWERS SOUTH.
THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1136 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA EARLY TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE
TUESDAY...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS
IN KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NY STATE. THIS IS A DECREASE
FROM THE MORNING COVERAGE...BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS WV AND
VA LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE ANOMALOUS ESE FLOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS GOING. HRRR ACTUALLY SHOWS INCRDASING
COVERAGE JUST SOUTHWEST OF MY AREA BY THIS EVENING...AS INCREASING
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE POOLS THERE.
WHILE THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SEE DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW REMNANTS AND LG FORCING SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA...SFC RIDGING AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE MAINLY DRY.
COOLEST TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE
READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F UNDER THICK OVERCAST AND SCT
SHOWERS. PTSUNNY SKIES WILL RESULT IN A MILDER SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN
PA...WHERE CONSALL OUTPUT SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE L70S ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A DRY FCST TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE SFC RIDGE AND LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL
LIE. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOIST SERLY FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED FROM THE VIRGINIAS INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT.
OROGRAPHIC FORCING OF THIS MOIST AIR MASS MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF LGT
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW
LVL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL TRANSLATE TO A MILDER NIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS LIKELY RANGING FROM 55-60F.
AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE E COAST MONDAY...VEERING BLYR FLOW
WILL ADVECT PLUME OF HIGH PWAT AIR WITH ORIGINS OVR THE S ATLANTIC
INTO CENTRAL PA. SERLY LOW LVL FLOW AND ASSOC OROGRAPHIC FORCING
IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES. HOWEVER...TEMPS
SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO RISE ABV SEASONAL NORMS. WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE E GRT LKS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE NEXT WEEK...ALL
OF WHICH PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...THEN DEVELOP A SLOW-MOVING COASTAL LOW ON STALLED FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENT OF CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE OHIO VALLEY.
BASED ON LATEST 00Z OPER AND ENS GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE TUES/TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC WITH FROPA.
CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT TSRA ACROSS NW PA TUE AFTN/EVEN...WHERE SOME
MODEST CAPES NOTED IN THE LATEST GEFS OUTPUT.
CONFIDENCE IN A LONG DURATION SOAKING RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS
WEEK...AS ALL MDLS HAVE CONVERGED ON IDEA OF A CUT OFF LOW FORMING
OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW CRAWLING UP THE MID ATL
COAST. INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH A 4-6 DAY FCST REMAIN...SO UNABLE
TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL.
HOWEVER...A SWATH OF SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL APPEARS QUITE
POSSIBLE EITHER OVER PA OR VIRGINIA. GEFS QPF PLUMES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA INDICATE LATE WEEK RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM ZERO
TO 3-4 INCHES. ATTM...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE WED-SAT TIME
FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO LATE WEEK
RAIN...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS TAKING TUMBLE
AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE. NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
TEMPS AOB CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY WEAK UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
AND CIG REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN MTNS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E/SE AT
SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 5-10MPH...WITH SOME BREEZINESS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
AS OVERALL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MON...FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
SPREAD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR DECK WILL
SETTLE IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MVFR IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
LOW CIGS PERSIST INTO MON...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT BEING
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. MAY EVEN REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NW
HALF OF CWA WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND.
OUTLOOK...
MON...INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN/LOW CIGS... FOCUSED
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN HALF.
TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS LIKELY...ESP NW HALF.
TUE NIGHT...LOW CIGS/SCT SHOWERS.
WED...LOW CIGS NW MTNS EARLY. CHC SHOWERS SOUTH.
THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
840 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMATTERING OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MID STATE...WITH A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND
REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z OHX SOUNDING SHOW DRY AIR IN
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF
THE UPPER LOW OVER EAST TX...WHICH HAS LIKELY LIMITED CONVECTION
SO FAR. HOWEVER...MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND HRRR AGREE THAT
ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA INTO THE MID STATE
OVERNIGHT AS AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
ROTATES NORTHWARD TOWARDS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THUS WILL GO
AHEAD AND LOWER POPS FOR THIS EVENING...BUT KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CATEGORICAL DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT AS SHOWN ON THE 00Z OHX
SOUNDING...DO ANTICIPATE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE SHOWERS. LATEST WPC
QPF INDICATES A GENERAL TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENT...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HIGHLY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWATS
NEAR 2 INCHES. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/
AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TERMINAL FORECASTS
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW ADVECTS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO MID STATE KEEPING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS ONGOING ALONG
WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THIS TIME TUESDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE NEXT 24 HOURS AS TROPOSPERE IS QUITE
MOIST IN THE LOWER 500 MBARS THEN DRIES OUT ABOVE MAKING FOR AN
AIR MASS THAT IS CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 68 76 66 74 / 70 90 50 30
CLARKSVILLE 67 75 64 73 / 60 80 40 20
CROSSVILLE 65 71 64 70 / 70 100 60 50
COLUMBIA 67 76 66 74 / 70 90 50 40
LAWRENCEBURG 67 75 66 74 / 70 90 50 40
WAVERLY 66 75 65 73 / 60 80 40 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1041 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MUCH MORE CLEARING HAS OCCURED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THAN WAS
INITIALLY FORECAST...SO THE UPDATE WILL LOWER POPS AND CLOUD COVER
AND RAISE TEMPS SLIGHLY IN A FEW AREAS. LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHOW
VERY LITTLE PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINLY CONFINED TO SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SW VA AND SW NC. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AROUND 850
MB WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE
CENTRAL VALLEY...THOUGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN GA MAY BE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM HAD BEEN
BRINGING SOME PRECIP FROM GA INTO THE CHA AREA TODAY...BUT THE
LATEST RUN DELAYS THIS UNTIL TONIGHT.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1134 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PRECIP
HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED AND WHAT REMAINS IS SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.
COULD SEE SOMETHING VERY ISOLATED DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE WRF-NAM
HINTS AT...BUT THINK THE CHANCE IS SLIM. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDER HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. QUIET NIGHT AHEAD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF QUICKLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN OK/WEST TX REGION. THIS TROF HAS BROUGHT WITH IT
A COOL FRONT AS WELL AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ARE CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN DRIVEN MORE SO BY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT DUE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES CAUSED BY THE
OVERHEAD TROF. AIR COOLED RAIN IN ADDITION TO CLOUD COVER HAVE KEPT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS RATHER COOL WITH CHILDRESS SHOWING A
TEMP OF 71F AS OF 19Z. TEMPS IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE MUCH CLEARER
AND ARE AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT HAVE REACHED INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED ALONG A LINE FROM DIMMITT TO
POST COMPLETELY DISSECTING THE CITY OF LUBBOCK. ONE OF THE MAIN
QUESTIONS WITH THE FRONT IS THE POSSIBILITY/DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
GARZA COUNTY WHILE MOST STORMS HAVE STAYED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA.
SOME LIGHT ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN AND AROUND
THE LUBBOCK AREA...EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS DIMMITT...BUT HAVE YET TO DO
MORE THAN SPIT A DROP OR TWO OF RAIN. CU FIELD ON VIS IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE TROF CONTINUES TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP ARE SHOWING THIS WELL
AND...ALONG WITH THE HRRR...DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT BY
20Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD BY
THE EARLY EVENING AS THE TROF PUSHES AWAY LEAVING THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AS LIGHT RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PREVENT ANY DECENT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON/S TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY/S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
WHO SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 80S.
LONG TERM...
A DRY AND MILD FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
MEXICO VERY GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WE/LL SEE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY THOUGH WHICH SHOULD HELP
KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE AUGUST...HIGHS
IN THE 80S SHOULD BE THE RULE. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND THIS MAY HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S RANGE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE GREATLY BY NEXT WEEKEND...DUE TO THEIR DIFFERENCE IN
HANDLING OF THE FAIRLY VIGOROUS TROUGH AS IT EMERGES INTO THE
PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WEST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A COLD FRONT COULD BE SENT INTO THE AREA OR THE
COLD AIR COULD REMAIN BOTTLED UP TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 53 82 56 84 / 10 0 0 0
TULIA 58 83 57 84 / 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 59 83 57 85 / 10 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 58 85 58 85 / 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 59 84 60 86 / 10 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 58 85 57 85 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 59 85 59 86 / 10 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 64 87 63 89 / 10 0 0 0
SPUR 63 86 61 87 / 10 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 64 89 63 89 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1152 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS TO THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE RATON
RIDGE...WHILE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE. EXPECT THIS AREA OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE TO CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EASTWARD OVER NIGHT...LIKELY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOZLEY
UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
UPDATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON FRONTAL TRENDS AND
THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS. FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE...INITIALLY
WITH THE FRONT AND THEN SPREADING EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
...COOLER WEATHER MOVING INTO THE REGION...
CURRENTLY...
COOL FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ON KPUX AT 3 PM RUNNING
NEARLY E-W FROM JUST N OF KPUB TO JUST N OF EADS. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH WHILE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY EASTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED. A LINE OF WEAK CUMULUS WERE
NOTED WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS W WY/NW CO THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL BRING THE FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS LATER TODAY
AND INTO THIS EVENING.
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS VARY ON INTENSITY AND
LOCATION...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE SOME
ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING GENERALLY N OF HIGHWAY 50.
HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A CLUSTER OF WEAK
STORMS FORMING UP IN EL PASO COUNTY AND THEN DROPPING EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HRRR HAS BEEN HANGING ONTO THIS
SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL RUNS...BUT BELIEVE IT MAY BE OVERDONE AS
COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE.
AS FOR CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT WE WILL SEE A BROKEN DECK
DEVELOP BUT BELIEVE ANY CIG WILL MAINLY BE A MID LVL DECK AS PER
SOUNDINGS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS UP IN N EL PASO COUNTY
AND MAYBE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY NE WINDS DEVELOP SOON OVER THE EL
PASO/PUEBLO COUNTY REGION AND LAST INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT
SURGES SOUTH.
TOMORROW...
MOS PRODUCTS SHOW RATHER HIGH POPS TOMORROW ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND FORCING...PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT I AM A BIT HESITANT
ON GOING AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE. FOR NOW PAINTED THE GREATER I-25
CORRIDOR REGION IN SCATTERED POPS WITH MORE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE RATON MESA REGION
AS FOR TIMING...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION...AND THE AREA OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE
AS IT MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DOWN THE S MTN RANGE.
THE BIG NEWS TOMORROW WILL BE THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO THE AREA...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS
N EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL AS COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET INTO THE LARGER
VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION
TOMORROW. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO NEW
MEXICO. MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR NORTH.
BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AND
HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS WITH DEW
POINTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH FORECAST 500MB WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS. SHORTWAVE
APPEARS TO BE LACKING WHICH CAN HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION...GIVEN THE WEAKER AUTUMN SOLAR HEATING. HAVE SOME
ISOLATED POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS TO DEVELOP.
.THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR A DRY AND WARM
DAY.
.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BEST FORCING WILL MOSTLY BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE LOW. THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED STARTING SATURDAY. EC AND
CANADIAN HAVE THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY. A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
MONDAY. THIS IS A WARMER SOLUTION WITH MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
MARTY MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE GFS LACKS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
AND IT HAS AN UPPER LOW STALLING OVER COLORADO. THIS WOULD PROVIDE
A MUCH COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION. WPC SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE THE
BLEND OF THE TWO AND PREDICTABILITY IS BELOW AVERAGE. CR EXTENDED
GRIDS ARE A DECENT COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND ONLY
TWEAKED THE GRIDS FOR CONSISTENCY. WITH A TROUGH NEARBY...THIS
WEEKEND COULD BE COOLER WITH MORE AUTUMN LIKE TEMPERATURES.
--PGW--
--PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AT THE
KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS TUESDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE EAST WITH
VFR CIGS AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY AFTER...WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE EVENING
HOURS THOUGH IFR STRATUS LOOKS PROBABLE JUST BEYOND 06Z TUES.
KALS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK AT
TIMES...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
UPDATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON FRONTAL TRENDS AND
THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS. FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE...INITIALLY
WITH THE FRONT AND THEN SPREADING EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
...COOLER WEATHER MOVING INTO THE REGION...
CURRENTLY...
COOL FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ON KPUX AT 3 PM RUNNING
NEARLY E-W FROM JUST N OF KPUB TO JUST N OF EADS. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH WHILE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY EASTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED. A LINE OF WEAK CUMULUS WERE
NOTED WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS W WY/NW CO THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL BRING THE FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS LATER TODAY
AND INTO THIS EVENING.
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS VARY ON INTENSITY AND
LOCATION...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE SOME
ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING GENERALLY N OF HIGHWAY 50.
HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A CLUSTER OF WEAK
STORMS FORMING UP IN EL PASO COUNTY AND THEN DROPPING EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HRRR HAS BEEN HANGING ONTO THIS
SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL RUNS...BUT BELIEVE IT MAY BE OVERDONE AS
COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE.
AS FOR CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT WE WILL SEE A BROKEN DECK
DEVELOP BUT BELIEVE ANY CIG WILL MAINLY BE A MID LVL DECK AS PER
SOUNDINGS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS UP IN N EL PASO COUNTY
AND MAYBE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY NE WINDS DEVELOP SOON OVER THE EL
PASO/PUEBLO COUNTY REGION AND LAST INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT
SURGES SOUTH.
TOMORROW...
MOS PRODUCTS SHOW RATHER HIGH POPS TOMORROW ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND FORCING...PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT I AM A BIT HESITANT
ON GOING AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE. FOR NOW PAINTED THE GREATER I-25
CORRIDOR REGION IN SCATTERED POPS WITH MORE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE RATON MESA REGION
AS FOR TIMING...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION...AND THE AREA OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE
AS IT MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DOWN THE S MTN RANGE.
THE BIG NEWS TOMORROW WILL BE THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO THE AREA...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS
N EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL AS COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET INTO THE LARGER
VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION
TOMORROW. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO NEW
MEXICO. MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR NORTH.
BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AND
HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS WITH DEW
POINTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH FORECAST 500MB WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS. SHORTWAVE
APPEARS TO BE LACKING WHICH CAN HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION...GIVEN THE WEAKER AUTUMN SOLAR HEATING. HAVE SOME
ISOLATED POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS TO DEVELOP.
.THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR A DRY AND WARM
DAY.
.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BEST FORCING WILL MOSTLY BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE LOW. THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED STARTING SATURDAY. EC AND
CANADIAN HAVE THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY. A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
MONDAY. THIS IS A WARMER SOLUTION WITH MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
MARTY MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE GFS LACKS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
AND IT HAS AN UPPER LOW STALLING OVER COLORADO. THIS WOULD PROVIDE
A MUCH COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION. WPC SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE THE
BLEND OF THE TWO AND PREDICTABILITY IS BELOW AVERAGE. CR EXTENDED
GRIDS ARE A DECENT COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND ONLY
TWEAKED THE GRIDS FOR CONSISTENCY. WITH A TROUGH NEARBY...THIS
WEEKEND COULD BE COOLER WITH MORE AUTUMN LIKE TEMPERATURES.
--PGW--
--PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AT THE
KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS TUESDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE EAST WITH
VFR CIGS AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY AFTER...WITH
CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE EVENING
HOURS THOUGH IFR STRATUS LOOKS PROBABLE JUST BEYOND 06Z TUES.
KALS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK AT
TIMES...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TOMORROW...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT...
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1248 AM EDT...ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE SHOWERS ARE FORMING WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT...AND A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT. THE
KENX RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS PASSING
OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS.
THIS IS DUE TO THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE PCPN FROM THESE
SHOWERS...AND WE HAVE JUST ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST 00Z RAOB
FROM KALY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE 700
HPA...BUT FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE REGION INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHC AND LIKELY
VALUES IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE A MUCH MORE HUMID NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS WITH SFC DEWPTS CREEPING UP INTO THE
U50S TO M60S. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWER TO M60S...EXCEPT SOME U50S OVER THE SRN
GREENS...N-CNTRL BERKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
MORNING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
EVENING...AND THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START TO BECOMING LIGHTER IN INTENSITY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PWATS RISE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG H10-H8 THETA E RIDGE ALSO IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES ARE 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR ALBANY
SHOWING A RANGE OF 1.5 TO 4.5 INCHES WITH A CLUSTERING AROUND 2.5
INCHES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH QPF VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 3
INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
TUESDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE AS THE AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE FA. STILL WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND CHANCE POPS NORTH. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.
THURSDAY AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. IT WILL BE A
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS WET AND UNSETTLED WITH
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC PATTERN FOR PERIODS OF RAINFALL BASED ON THE MEDIUM
RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...AND THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THERE
IS A GENERAL SHIFT TO A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS
IN THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SURGES OF ATLANTIC AND GULF
MOISTURE POSSIBLE.
OUR FCST CONTINUES THE TREND OF LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATEST
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN...SUPERBLEND AND THE WPC GUIDANCE STARTING THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED H500 CLOSED OR CUTOFF LOW WILL
LIKELY BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. A STRONG H250 JET WILL
BE NEAR THE EAST COAST...A STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST OFF THE COAST.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE ADVANCING N/NE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE EC/WPC/CAN GGEM/GEFS INDICATE ONE SHORT-WAVE
WILL MOVE IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL.
PWAT VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE LATEST
GEFS ARE 1 TO 2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS DOES EVENTUALLY
BRING SOME RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON...AS A SFC
WAVE/FORMER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE /POSSIBLY TD-11/MAY MOVE N/NE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. OVERALL...HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF
THE FCST AREA THU NIGHT...AND CHC POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH CHC POPS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN
DACKS WHERE SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE USED FOR THE RAINFALL ON FRI. LOWS
THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH MID AND U40S OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S ON FRI WITH THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN. EXPECT A FEW U40S OVER THE HIGH
PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.
FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A WET AND UNSETTLED WEEKEND IS LIKELY WITH
THE H500 LONG-WAVE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH FOCUSING PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS ARE INDICATING PWAT ANOMALIES OF
1 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V WIND ANOMALIES/
OF 1 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEAR EXTREME ERN NY AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND. DEEP TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC IS LIKELY. A WAVE OR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT ENHANCING THE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SAT/SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SFC WAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
ACTUALLY...THE ECMWF IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS HERE WITH SFC
WAVE OR TROPICAL SYSTEM BEING CAPTURED BY AN H500 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND JUST HAS SOME
OVER RUNNING MOISTURE IN THE NY/NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR WITH SOME
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF WOULD
BRING THE CUTOFF LOW TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHC POPS FOR RAIN FRI
NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...AND THEN LOWERED TO LOWER CHC POPS ON
SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECASTING EXACT TIMING HERE.
ALSO...DURING THIS STRETCH OF FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE PROBS FOR 2 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE IN 24 HRS
ARE STILL UNDER 30 PERCENT FROM THE LATEST GEFS FOR MOST OF THE FCST
AREA /FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT/. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN
THE CLOUDY AND WET REGIME WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND U40S
WITH SOME U30S TO L40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS ON SAT WILL
BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE MID AND U50S...WITH SUNDAY BEING
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH M50S TO L60S POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ON AN OPTIMISTIC NOTE...THE LATEST
GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES A DRYING TREND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM OH VALLEY AND SE CANADA.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT ON THE 12Z GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF
WOULD KEEP IT WET AND UNSETTLED WITH THE CUTOFF OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTHEAST WITH SCT SHOWERS. IN THE FCST GRIDS...WE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. TEMPS TREND TO EARLY OCTOBER SEASONAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SPOTTY RAIN DEVELOPING AND TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NY...WITH GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXCEPT FOR KPSF
WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED. AS DEEP MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...SO WILL HAVE TO RELY ON
DATA AND GUIDANCE TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND AT WHAT LEVEL CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP...WITH OPTIONS TO AMEND IF CEIILNGS IN REALITY
DEVELOP AT A DIFFERENT HEIGHT.
CURRENT VFR SHOULD BECOME MVFR BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN BEGINNING AT KGFL AND KALB BY OR AROUND SUNRISE. RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN AROUND KPSF AND KPOU SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE INTO MID MORNING.
INDICATING GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO BORDERLINE IFR BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING VISIBILITIES AS
RAIN BECOMES STEADIER. INDICATING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BELOW 1000
FEET ALSO...TO SUGGEST THAT LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET IF TRENDS SUPPORT THOSE
CONDITIONS LATER TODAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 5 KT AT KGFL...KPSF
AND KPOU THROUGH SUNRISE BUT SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KT AT KALB. SOUTH
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNON AT KALB...BUT 10 KT OR LESS AT
KGFL...KPSF AND KPOU...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 6 KT AT ALL SITES
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT... BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...DROP TO 65 TO 85 PERCENT ON TUESDAY...RECOVER TO 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DROP TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...SOUTH AT
5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY...VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. A MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SLOW-
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT.
RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALL
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RISING WITH THE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT
APPEARS A SOAKING RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR 4+ INCHES IN SOME AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL FORECASTS WILL BE REFINED AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.
THE LATEST USGS STREAMFLOW DATA SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE REPORTING STREAMFLOW LEVELS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL LEVELS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE LOCAL
AREA IN THE D0 CATEGORY...ABNORMALLY DRY. SO MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR POTENTIAL RAPID RISES ON THE SMALLER/FLASHY RIVERS/STREAMS AS
RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL RAINFALL RATES. MMEFS ANALYSIS FROM
THE SREF HAS ROSENDALE...WILLIAMSTOWN...EAGLE BRIDGE AND
ROCKINGHAM HAVING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD
STAGE THROUGH 18Z ON THE 1ST OF OCTOBER. IT ALSO HAS COLD BROOK
AND PRATTSVILLE WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING ACTION
STAGE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...LFM/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1248 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TOMORROW...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT...
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1248 AM EDT...ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THE SHOWERS ARE FORMING WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT...AND A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT. THE
KENX RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS PASSING
OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS.
THIS IS DUE TO THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE PCPN FROM THESE
SHOWERS...AND WE HAVE JUST ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST 00Z RAOB
FROM KALY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE 700
HPA...BUT FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE REGION INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHC AND LIKELY
VALUES IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE A MUCH MORE HUMID NIGHT COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS WITH SFC DEWPTS CREEPING UP INTO THE
U50S TO M60S. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWER TO M60S...EXCEPT SOME U50S OVER THE SRN
GREENS...N-CNTRL BERKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND THE SRN DACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY
MORNING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
EVENING...AND THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK
AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START TO BECOMING LIGHTER IN INTENSITY.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PWATS RISE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG H10-H8 THETA E RIDGE ALSO IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES ARE 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR ALBANY
SHOWING A RANGE OF 1.5 TO 4.5 INCHES WITH A CLUSTERING AROUND 2.5
INCHES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH QPF VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 3
INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON
TUESDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE AS THE AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE FA. STILL WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND CHANCE POPS NORTH. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.
THURSDAY AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. IT WILL BE A
COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS WET AND UNSETTLED WITH
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC PATTERN FOR PERIODS OF RAINFALL BASED ON THE MEDIUM
RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...AND THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THERE
IS A GENERAL SHIFT TO A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS
IN THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SURGES OF ATLANTIC AND GULF
MOISTURE POSSIBLE.
OUR FCST CONTINUES THE TREND OF LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATEST
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN...SUPERBLEND AND THE WPC GUIDANCE STARTING THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED H500 CLOSED OR CUTOFF LOW WILL
LIKELY BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. A STRONG H250 JET WILL
BE NEAR THE EAST COAST...A STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST OFF THE COAST.
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE ADVANCING N/NE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. THE EC/WPC/CAN GGEM/GEFS INDICATE ONE SHORT-WAVE
WILL MOVE IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL.
PWAT VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE LATEST
GEFS ARE 1 TO 2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS DOES EVENTUALLY
BRING SOME RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON...AS A SFC
WAVE/FORMER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE /POSSIBLY TD-11/MAY MOVE N/NE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. OVERALL...HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF
THE FCST AREA THU NIGHT...AND CHC POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH CHC POPS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN
DACKS WHERE SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE USED FOR THE RAINFALL ON FRI. LOWS
THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH MID AND U40S OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S ON FRI WITH THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN. EXPECT A FEW U40S OVER THE HIGH
PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS.
FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A WET AND UNSETTLED WEEKEND IS LIKELY WITH
THE H500 LONG-WAVE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND AN
INVERTED SFC TROUGH FOCUSING PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS ARE INDICATING PWAT ANOMALIES OF
1 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V WIND ANOMALIES/
OF 1 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEAR EXTREME ERN NY AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND. DEEP TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC IS LIKELY. A WAVE OR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ALONG
THE FRONT ENHANCING THE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SAT/SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SFC WAVE IS UNCERTAIN.
ACTUALLY...THE ECMWF IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS HERE WITH SFC
WAVE OR TROPICAL SYSTEM BEING CAPTURED BY AN H500 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND JUST HAS SOME
OVER RUNNING MOISTURE IN THE NY/NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR WITH SOME
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF WOULD
BRING THE CUTOFF LOW TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHC POPS FOR RAIN FRI
NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...AND THEN LOWERED TO LOWER CHC POPS ON
SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECASTING EXACT TIMING HERE.
ALSO...DURING THIS STRETCH OF FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE PROBS FOR 2 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE IN 24 HRS
ARE STILL UNDER 30 PERCENT FROM THE LATEST GEFS FOR MOST OF THE FCST
AREA /FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT/. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN
THE CLOUDY AND WET REGIME WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND U40S
WITH SOME U30S TO L40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS ON SAT WILL
BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE MID AND U50S...WITH SUNDAY BEING
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH M50S TO L60S POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ON AN OPTIMISTIC NOTE...THE LATEST
GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES A DRYING TREND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM OH VALLEY AND SE CANADA.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT ON THE 12Z GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF
WOULD KEEP IT WET AND UNSETTLED WITH THE CUTOFF OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTHEAST WITH SCT SHOWERS. IN THE FCST GRIDS...WE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON
MONDAY. TEMPS TREND TO EARLY OCTOBER SEASONAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SOME CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. IT WILL NOT BE
A WIDESPREAD RAIN AS WE GO PAST 12Z TUESDAY WITH THE MOISTURE OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME
AT KGFL WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS WE GO PAST 18Z AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...AND WITH KGFL IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BEST
CHANCES OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST AT AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF KALB.
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL DETERIORATE AS WE GO PAST 18Z AS
OVC SKIES AND MORE STEADY RAINFALL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO
SE APPROACHING THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO START THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN PICK UP OUT OF
THE SE-SW BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT... BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...DROP TO 65 TO 85 PERCENT ON TUESDAY...RECOVER TO 100
PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DROP TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...SOUTH AT
5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY...VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. A MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SLOW-
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT.
RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALL
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RISING WITH THE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT
APPEARS A SOAKING RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR 4+ INCHES IN SOME AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL FORECASTS WILL BE REFINED AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER.
THE LATEST USGS STREAMFLOW DATA SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE REPORTING STREAMFLOW LEVELS BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL LEVELS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE LOCAL
AREA IN THE D0 CATEGORY...ABNORMALLY DRY. SO MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR POTENTIAL RAPID RISES ON THE SMALLER/FLASHY RIVERS/STREAMS AS
RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL RAINFALL RATES. MMEFS ANALYSIS FROM
THE SREF HAS ROSENDALE...WILLIAMSTOWN...EAGLE BRIDGE AND
ROCKINGHAM HAVING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD
STAGE THROUGH 18Z ON THE 1ST OF OCTOBER. IT ALSO HAS COLD BROOK
AND PRATTSVILLE WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING ACTION
STAGE.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...LFM/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
149 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
IT APPEARS CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE AND
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY....AND STALL NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST. SOME POSSIBILITIES OF
FAIR WEATHER RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
DIRECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE FA. THE SURFACE RIDGE AND EASTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA. INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING NORTH INTO THE
CSRA TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FA. OVERCAST SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL PROMOTE LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SW UPPER FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE WEST
GULF UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT EAST AS MAIN STREAM TROUGH DIGS
DOWN INTO THE E CONUS. WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH
MOISTURE OVER THE GULF TO DRIFT NE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND SE
CONUS. LATEST MODELS APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT BEST UPPER LIFT AND
BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD REMAIN
MAINLY JUST TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...BUT NONETHELESS HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BACK DOOR INTO THE REGION LATE WED/WED
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS THU/FRI WITH CUT-
OFF LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SW UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
REGION APPEAR WILL LEAD TO FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST...WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS
APPEARS TO KEEP OUR FA IN A COOL AND POSSIBLY WEAK WEDGE-LIKE NE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE PROVIDING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THU/FRI. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SAT/SUN WITH A ZONAL UPPER FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...SUGGESTING MOISTURE
TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERSISTENT WEDGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS BUT WILL LEAN MORE PESSIMISTIC
HOLDING CIGS IN MVFR CATEGORY BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO IFR
AFTER 00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. DRY AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1154 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
Skies are remaining partl to mostly cloudy with most of the clouds
to the southeast, south of I-72. In addition, radar showing very
light pcpn moving across southeast IL this evening. Believe this
will continue the remainder of the night. Showers and isolated
storms are moving across Iowa just behind the front that is still
forecast to move into the area early morning. Current forecast
looks good, but may do some minor tweaks to pops/wx in southeast
IL. Only adjustment will be to wording of wx in southeast to
scattered and isolated, instead of chance and slight chance.
Update will be out shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
Original shield of lower clouds has been contracting throughout the
day, and was basically limited to areas from Peoria to Chicago this
afternoon. Remainder of the CWA has seen clouds more of a diurnal
nature, which has allowed enough sunshine to get temperatures into
the lower 80s. So far the showers have remained extremely isolated.
Precipitation threat for the forecast area tonight will be coming
from a couple different directions. Across the southeast CWA, some
upper level energy will continue to surge northward up the
Mississippi River as the upper low over east Texas lifts northeast
and starts to open up. Showers should remain isolated this evening,
before rain chances start to ramp up late night as the energy gets
closer. Could be a rumble or two of thunder in the far southeast
late tonight, as the RAP shows lifted index values falling to near
zero, but chance is too small at the moment to include in the
forecast. Across the northwest CWA, the main player will be the cold
front which currently is pushing through northwest Iowa. Arrival of
the frontal boundary will be after 3 AM, and most of the rain will
be post-frontal, so will only carry some slight 20-30% PoP`s
northwest of the Illinois River late tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
A cold front will cross from near I-72 to start the day Tuesday to
near the southern tip of Illinois by evening. At the same time, low
pressure over the south central states will drift toward the
southeastern U.S., helping to combine enough moisture, lift, and
instability into mainly the southern half of Illinois for showers
and isolated thunderstorms. As a result...keeping chances for
showers/isolated thunder south of I-72 for Tuesday...with chances of
showers diminishing to the north through the day. Highs will
feature a strong gradient across central IL, ranging from the upper
60s in Galesburg to near 80 in Lawrenceville as cooler and drier air
moves in behind the front. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s to start
the day to slip into the low to mid 50s behind the front over
northern counties Tue afternoon. Breezy north-northeast winds behind
the front will increase...reaching 10-15 mph with gusts into the 20
mph range.
Fairly persistent high pressure will settle into the Great Lakes
Region for the remainder of the work week...promoting an extended
period of breezy northeast winds and mostly sunny skies. Highs will
be in the upper 60s and low 70s through Friday with lows mainly in
40s.
There remains fairly poor model agreement over the weekend into
early next week...with a weak trough passing through the region in
the GFS...but a building ridge into the Plains and upper Midwest in
the ECMWF. Neither would have a good chance for precipitation and
forecast is therefore dry. Both would feature lighter winds.
Temperatures likely will feature minimal trend through the weekend
and kept highs in the 60s and lows mid-upper 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
Light showers coming north from the southeast IL overnight could
reach DEC and CMI during the early morning hours, so have included
VCSH for those two sites for about 6-7hrs, though do not think it
will last that long. Then a cold front is dropping south into the
area with pcpn behind the front. This pcpn and front will not
reach the TAF sites until late morning starting at PIA and then
around noon at BMI and then afternoon for SPI/DEC/CMI. MVFR cigs
are expected with this pcpn/fropa around 2.5kft along with some
scattered stratus. Pcpn associated with this front seems to be
weakening based on various short range models, so will just have
VCSH with this as well. Has been some thunder with the pcpn across
IA but believe will not see any in IL as it should be weakening.
As the front moves through, scattered pcpn will end but still
expecting mid clouds around 10kft behind the front along with
gusty north-northeast winds. PIA/BMI/SPI could see some clearing
during the evening hours. DEC and CMI will not see clearing until
closer to midnight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
415 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SRN MANITOBA. ACCOMPANYING 12HR HGT
FALLS UP TO 70M ARE DEEPENING TROF A BIT CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY
INTO THE UPR LKS. ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
THRU UPR MI...ALLOWING AN INFLUX OF MUCH COOLER AIR WITH 00Z H85
TEMPS AS LO AS -5C AT THE PAS MANITOBA AND -2C AT YPL. DESPITE THE
CHILL OF THIS INCOMING AIRMASS RELATIVE TO THE WARM LK WATERS /AS
HI AS 15C OVER WRN LK SUP/...DRYNESS OF THE LLVL AIRMASS DEPICTED ON
THE UPSTREAM RAOBS AND LARGER SCALE ACYC NW FLOW TO THE E OF SFC HI
PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS HAVE PREVENTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LK
CLDS. PWATS AT THE PAS AND YPL WERE AROUND 0.25 INCH. UNDER THE
SHARP PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF THE HI...NW WINDS HAVE GUSTED UP TO
30 KTS AT SOME OF THE HIER PLATFORMS ON LK SUP. THERE ARE SOME HI
CLDS STREAKING ACRS THE UPR LKS ON THE NRN FLANK OF A DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST...BUT PCPN/THICKER CLDS ARE CLOSER
TO DEEP MSTR WELL TO THE S.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON TEMPS TNGT AND NEED
FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
TODAY...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHRTWV THRU NW ONTARIO AND ATTENDANT
COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG...LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE WL
DOMINATE AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES CENTER TO SHIFT NEAR WRN LK SUP BY
00Z THIS EVNG. GUSTY NW WINDS...REACHING NEAR 30 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER
THE E HALF CLOSE TO LK SUP UNDER STRONG CAA THIS MRNG WL ADVECT THE
DRIER LLVL AIR INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME SCT CU COULD DVLP WITH
ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS AND ACYC
FLOW WL BRING ABOUT A MOSUNNY DAY. DESPITE THIS SUNSHINE...H85 TEMPS
NO HIER THAN 2C WL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES. THE
STRONG NW WINDS OVER LK SUP WL BRING HIER WAVES UP TO 5 FT AND A HI
SWIM RISK ALONG THE BEACHES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS IS FCST TO STRETCH FM NEAR JAMES BAY
ACRS WRN UPR MI AND INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. UNDER LGT WINDS
AND MOCLR SKIES WITH PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25 INCH...EXPECT MIN TEMPS
OVER THE WRN CWA TO PLUMMET BLO 32 AT MANY PLACES OVER THE INTEIOR W
HALF. ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR E HALF MAY SEE THE
MECURY TUMBLE BLO 32 AS WELL...A BIT TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT/HIER H925
WINDS UP TO 15-20KT WL LIMIT THE AREA OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE LK SHORES...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP E OF THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI S OF ESCANABA...SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH
MIN TEMPS HOLDING AOA 40. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...OPTED TO MAINTAIN FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR W
HALF. INCLUDED DICKINSON COUNTY IN THIS LATEST VERSION AS WINDS
THERE WL BE SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT. ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA TO INDICATE THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF FROST AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES GIVES WAY
TO RISING HEIGHTS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WILL BUILD TO OVER 1042MB BY 12Z FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. DUE TO
THE SFC RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER. AFTER
WIDESPREAD FROST EARLY ON...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST AND NCNTRL CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NAM/GFS/GEM- REGIONAL
SHOWING POCKET OF HIGHER H85 RH AND H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C WHILE WATER
TEMPS ARE 13-15C. OVERALL DRYNESS OF AIRMASS AND LACK OF CYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS. EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BLO H85 RESULT IN MOST CLOUDS OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR NCNTRL...
SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS OF MAIN MODELS. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY STAY IN
THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
CHILLY NIGHT WITH FROST LIKELY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEADY EAST WINDS ABOVE 10 KTS H95-H85 BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PWATS LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES...NEAR SFC LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE AND MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE MORE IN THE UPR 30S TO AROUND
40 DEGREES. COOL AIRMASS PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY IN THE 50S...BUT THIS TIME WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. THOUGH SFC
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AIRMASS
CHANGES LITTLE AND IN FACT...PWATS ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
CHECKING IN LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. LOWERED MINS TOWARD COOLER MEX
GUIDANCE AND ADDED MENTION OF FROST. COOLEST READINGS IN LOW 30S WILL
BE FOR THE INTERIOR.
BY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW TROUGH OR AT LEAST A PORTION OF IT
RETROGRADING WEST BETWEEN UPPER RIDGES OVER MANITOBA/NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS FM MODELS
THAT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE THIS WEEK WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND TO BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST EASTERN
PART OF CWA. TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN COULD BE FURTHER COMPLICATED
BY TROPICAL SYSTEM JOAQUIN LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OR ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER 1040MB CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
WILL KEEP RIDGE AND DRY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
AT LEAST FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. AGREEMENT DECREASES BY LATER
WEEKEND DUE TO HOW FAR WEST MODELS BRING SFC LOW TIED INTO THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING NORTH FM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. 00Z RUNS VARY WILDLY FM
STRONGER SFC LOW AS FAR WEST AS GEORGIAN BAY PER THE GFS AND MORE
OVER THE EAST COAST FM THE GEM-NH AND ECMWF. THOUGH GFS SOLUTION IS
NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN IT HAS SHOWED IT OCCASIONALLY IN
THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT GEM-NH SHOWED A DAY AGO.
GIVEN THE VOLITILITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL
STAY WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS WHICH SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAINLY OVER THE EAST CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY COOL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES
DURING THE DAYTIME AND MID 30S TO MID 40S DURING THE NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 25KT.
INCOMING CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
TONIGHT/TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT E OF HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT NNW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT OVER THE
WEST HALF AS THE HI DRIFTS NEARLY OVERHEAD...BUT N VEERING NE WINDS
UP TO 20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E UNDER TIGHTER GRADIENT
FARTHER FROM THE HI PRES RIDGE AXIS. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS
SLOWLY ENE AND INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A STEADY 15-25KT
ENE WIND WILL PERSIST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MIZ002-004-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
333 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA. TROF IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SFC COLD FRONTS. FIRST IS
MOVING ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI ATTM WHILE THE SECOND WHICH MARKS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NOTABLY COLDER AIR RUNS FROM JAMES BAY TO JUST W
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IMPROVED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN UNDERNEATH HAS
SUPPORTED AN EXPANSION OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE
LEAD COLD FRONT TODAY...THOUGH THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH THUNDER THIS
AFTN AFTER AN INCREASE DURING THE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING COLD FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN
S AND E THIS EVENING. WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PCPN
FIELDS...UTILIZED A COMBINATION OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND RADAR TRENDS
TO CONSTRUCT POP GRIDS THRU THE EVENING. LINGERING UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK AS WELL AS SECOND SFC COLD FRONT
SWEEPING SE MAY GENERATE A FEW -SHRA BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN
TIED MORE CLOSELY TO FIRST COLD FRONT. THUS...SOME LOW POPS WILL BE
CARRIED AS LATE AS THE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL/SE.
OTHERWISE...COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS CURRENTLY AT 10-13C WILL FALL TO -1C OVER THE
KEWEENAW TO 7C FAR SCNTRL BY 12Z TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH
COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND 40F AND PROBABLY
INTO THE UPPER 30S AT SOME HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER W AND NW
UPPER MI. HIGHEST MINS WILL BE NEAR LAKE MI...UPPER 40S/AROUND 50F.
ALTHOUGH THE SFC-850MB DELTA-T BTWN THE LAKE WATERS STILL IN THE
MID/UPR 50S F IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE CLOUDS/PCPN...FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY. SO...THE
CHILLY AIR FLOW OVER THE LAKE PROBABLY WON`T SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN
SCT CLOUDS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT.
850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT -1 TO -2C TUE MORNING. WITH FCST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOWING A VERY DRY AIR MASS FLOWING INTO THE UPPER LAKES...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. IF ANYTHING...THE
MOISTENING PROVIDED BY THE LAKE MAY PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER INLAND FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS ON
THE MOISTURE. SHOULDN`T BE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F AND A RATHER BRISK NW WIND...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES GIVES WAY
TO RISING HEIGHTS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WILL BUILD TO OVER 1042MB BY 12Z FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. DUE TO
THE SFC RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER. AFTER
WIDESPREAD FROST EARLY ON...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST AND NCNTRL CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NAM/GFS/GEM- REGIONAL
SHOWING POCKET OF HIGHER H85 RH AND H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C WHILE WATER
TEMPS ARE 13-15C. OVERALL DRYNESS OF AIRMASS AND LACK OF CYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS. EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BLO H85 RESULT IN MOST CLOUDS OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR NCNTRL...
SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS OF MAIN MODELS. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY STAY IN
THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
CHILLY NIGHT WITH FROST LIKELY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEADY EAST WINDS ABOVE 10 KTS H95-H85 BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PWATS LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES...NEAR SFC LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE AND MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE MORE IN THE UPR 30S TO AROUND
40 DEGREES. COOL AIRMASS PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY IN THE 50S...BUT THIS TIME WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. THOUGH SFC
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AIRMASS
CHANGES LITTLE AND IN FACT...PWATS ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
CHECKING IN LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. LOWERED MINS TOWARD COOLER MEX
GUIDANCE AND ADDED MENTION OF FROST. COOLEST READINGS IN LOW 30S WILL
BE FOR THE INTERIOR.
BY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW TROUGH OR AT LEAST A PORTION OF IT
RETROGRADING WEST BETWEEN UPPER RIDGES OVER MANITOBA/NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS FM MODELS
THAT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE THIS WEEK WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND TO BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST EASTERN
PART OF CWA. TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN COULD BE FURTHER COMPLICATED
BY TROPICAL SYSTEM JOAQUIN LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OR ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER 1040MB CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
WILL KEEP RIDGE AND DRY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
AT LEAST FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. AGREEMENT DECREASES BY LATER
WEEKEND DUE TO HOW FAR WEST MODELS BRING SFC LOW TIED INTO THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING NORTH FM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. 00Z RUNS VARY WILDLY FM
STRONGER SFC LOW AS FAR WEST AS GEORGIAN BAY PER THE GFS AND MORE
OVER THE EAST COAST FM THE GEM-NH AND ECMWF. THOUGH GFS SOLUTION IS
NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN IT HAS SHOWED IT OCCASIONALLY IN
THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT GEM-NH SHOWED A DAY AGO.
GIVEN THE VOLITILITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL
STAY WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS WHICH SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAINLY OVER THE EAST CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY COOL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES
DURING THE DAYTIME AND MID 30S TO MID 40S DURING THE NIGHTS. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 25KT.
INCOMING CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
MORE THAN SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
TONIGHT/TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
WITH ONE COLD FRONT EXITING LAKE SUPERIOR NOW...A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. PRES RISES ALONG WITH INCREASING
OVERWATER INSTABILITY AS COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL
RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT TONIGHT AFTER THE SECOND
COLD FRONT PASSES. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WRN
LAKE AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT W TO E TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE UPPER
LAKES. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE ENE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...IT
WILL EXTEND A RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE
THE RIDGE MAY BE SITUATED A LITTLE FARTHER N THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...EASTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME BRISK INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT
TIMES DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MIZ002-004-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
453 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT "WET" WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE ARKLAMISS HAS UNDER-
ACHIEVED IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...AND WITH DRIER AIR POISED TO MOVE IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK...WE EXPECT FIRE WEATHER DANGER TO
BE ON THE INCREASE.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...RECENT NWP MODEL OUTPUT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
AND ACCURATE WITH THE SHORT TERM SCENARIO. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE UPPER TX COAST/SW LA IS NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF OPENING UP...AND IT SHOULD SHEAR EASTWARD AS HEIGHT FALLS
SEND A A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES AND WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS GIVEN DAYTIME
HEATING BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED TO GIVE WEIGHT TO THE
DRIER HRRR GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE AND HAVE CUT BACK ON
CONSENSUS POPS SOME...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT HRRR IS LOOKING A BIT
WETTER. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKY GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION FOR SOME CLOUD BREAKS AGAIN AND HAVE FOLLOWED A WARMER
BLEND OF GUIDANCE BASED ON WHAT TRANSPIRED MONDAY. /EC/
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY HAS FAILED TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD HELPFUL PRECIP DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS TIGHTENING AROUND A SOLUTION WHERE BAROCLINIC
INTERACTION OF A WEAK EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH NEWLY-FORMED TS
JOAQUIN STRENGTHENS SAID TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL JOAQUIN COULD BE A MAJOR WEATHER-MAKER
FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE THE COMING WEEKEND IS OVER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY HIGH IT WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...THE MENTIONED SYNOPTIC INTERACTION WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SERIOUS PATTERN
AMPLIFICATION...LIKELY RESULTING IN A FEW DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
OF COURSE THESE COLD FRONTS WILL USHER IN SOME RELATIVELY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SPECTER OF
CASCADING DROUGHT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ARKLAMISS (EXCEPT
MAYBE IN PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MS) THIS PATTERN HAS POTENTIAL TO
INCREASE FIRE DANGER MARKEDLY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECASTS DO NOT
SHOW DAYTIME RH VALUES DROPPING OFF BELOW 25 PERCENT IN THE LONG
RANGE ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES)
IF DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BE DEEPER THAN NWP MODELS ANTICIPATE AT
THIS JUNCTURE. DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH...ADDING TO THE CONCERN. FOR THIS PACKAGE WE HAVE INTRODUCED
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND THIS
RISK IN TIME AND SPACE IF FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE PATTERN SETTING UP LATE
THIS WEEK COULD DIG IN AND LAST THROUGH THE DEFINED LONG TERM PERIOD
IF BAROCLINIC TROUGH INTERACTION WITH JOAQUIN IS EXTREME AND
PERSISTENT. OF COURSE THAT WOULD ONLY WORSEN DROUGHT AND PROLONG
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER...WHILE A BRIEFER INTERACTION
WOULD ALLOW AMPLIFICATION TO BREAK DOWN MORE QUICKLY AND PERHAPS
BRING BACK SOME RAIN CHANCES BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...CIGS HAVE LOWERED AGAIN THIS MORNING. IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES
EXIST MAINLY EAST OF THE GWO-HKS/JAN CORRIDOR WHERE SOME PATCHY
AREAS OF IFR FOG ARE ALSO OCCURRING. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO BREAK AND
MIX UPWARD TO MAINLY VFR CATEGORY LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN AS
SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOP. THE PATTERN SHOULD REPEAT ITSELF AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT DRIER AIR PROMISES MORE OPTIMISTIC
FORECASTS AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 83 68 83 63 / 39 24 26 6
MERIDIAN 83 67 82 62 / 36 31 41 14
VICKSBURG 83 67 84 61 / 41 23 10 4
HATTIESBURG 85 69 86 65 / 33 29 37 16
NATCHEZ 83 67 84 62 / 35 23 10 6
GREENVILLE 84 68 83 60 / 40 26 10 5
GREENWOOD 84 67 81 59 / 45 28 16 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
/EC/BB/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
352 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2015
Upper TROF exists edging the upper Midwest early this morning with
an upper LOW straddling the border between TX and LA. Rich
Gulf of Mexico moisture is streaming northward on the eastern flank
of this LOW towards the mid-MS and lower-OH river valleys, and along
with upper level disturbances meandering north, have resulted in an
outbreak of showers with isolated thunder in areas to the S and E of
STL metro. A surface cold front, representing the leading edge of
seasonably cool Autumn air, extended from east-central IA, near the
Quad Cities, to the northwest corner of MO, and into northern KS.
Our region remains on the warm side of the front, however, with
readings this hour in the lower 60s for areas that have mostly clear
skies to the N and W of STL metro, and the upper 60s and lower 70s
elsewhere that are cloudy.
The upper LOW well to our south is expected to weaken and open
during today, but its primary effect on our region will not change
much, with it continuing to supply rich moisture, especially for
areas S and E of STL metro, with the better moisture and imbedded
upper level disturbances becoming more shunted to the E with time.
It still looks like a round of occasional showers will occur for
areas to the E of STL metro this morning with this area fading
towards midday-early afternoon.
In the meantime, the cold front to our north will continue to drop
towards our region as flow aloft veers more northwesterly with
passage of the TROF to our north. It will just take much of the day
today in order to do it, and will not pass thru with too much
fanfare or identity as winds ahead of it are also expected to become
more northerly with time as the LOW to our south pulls out-opens up.
With what should be greatly weakening low level moisture
convergence in the frontal zone, pcpn is expected to lessen with
time with not much left by the time pcpn associated with the front
does reach our forecast area and only have low chance category PoPs
as a result. Actually, our better rain chances with the frontal
zone, such as they are, look to occur later this afternoon and
perhaps into this evening, as scattered showers near the I-70
corridor and pushing to the south this evening.
Thunder with any of this activity will be isolated and should be
confined to areas S and E of STL metro.
Temps will be highest in a corridor just N and W of STL metro,
including central MO, where rain chances are least, will take
the longest to cloud up with a slow moving front--with maxes near
80. Temps will struggle to rise for areas S and E of STL metro
where clouds will be thickest and rain chances greatest this
morning, and should see maxes from 70-75.
TES
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
FA will remain on the northern fringes of the upper low drifting
into the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow, while upper trof
pushing into the upper Great Lakes will allow cold front that
approaching northern sections of the FA late tonight to ooze
across the region during the day. Some PoPs will be tied to both
these features, but I`m really not sure that the 12z based MOS
from either the NAM or GFS have a real good handle on the expected
precip threat and/or trends.
Mass and moisture fields would certainly suggest that southeast
sections of the CWA will be on the northern fringes of the precip
associated with the southern system on Tuesday, which also suggests
that some MOS numbers in this section of the FA may be a bit too
high (and this has certainly been the case for the past several
days). However, the last few hours of the last several HRRR runs
suggest precip blossoming very late tonight as far north to near the
I44-I70 corridor...roughly near the northern trofing associated with
the upper low. I have upped PoPs some over the southeast half of
the CWA, but ultimately expect a pretty sharp PoP gradient that will
be resolved in the nowcast time frame.
Meanwhile across the north, expect a fairly large band of showers
along and especially north of the cold front just north of our FA
early Tuesday, with the showers working southeast and gradually
diminishing in coverage with time as the cold front works across the
region. Some low post-frontal shower threat will likely linger into
the evening hours before the drier air behind the front scours out
the low level moisture.
The latest 12z guidance is continuing the trend of the last few days
of being more bullish deepening the UA trof over the eastern CONUS
during the latter half of the week, which in turn allows for a
stronger intrusion of the Canadian high into the mid-Mississippi
Valley. Based on progged 850MB thermal profiles, temperatures will
have a decidely autumn feel...with highs dropping into the 60s and
lows tumbling into the 40s across the entire region Friday-Sunday.
With the high progged to exert greater dominance in the weather over
the region, it would appear that precip chances will be fairly low.
Specifics in the medium range UA progs are hard to pin down as
solutions are noisy and chaotic to say the least...but there does
seem to be some agreement that WAA will develop over the Plains
Friday night, with associated shower threat possibly working into
western/sw portions of the FA Sat-Sun.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Light fog is possible at KCOU towards
daybreak. Lgt/var winds at both KCOU and KUIN will become
northerly to northeasterly after fropa this morning. Post-frontal
MVFR stratus is expected and sprinkles are also possible.
Specifics for KSUS, KCPS: Showers worked a bit farther north than
previously anticipated and may reach KCPS within the next hour.
Any rain will decrease the T-Td spread at KCPS and make fog more
likely towards daybreak. T-Td spread is already low enough at KSUS
to add a mention of fog towards daybreak. Otherwise, lgt/var winds
will become northerly to northeasterly after fropa later this
morning and increase to around 12 kts. Post-frontal MVFR stratus
is expected and sprinkles are also possible during the day.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered showers have been making slow
northward progress and later shifts may need to add VCSH if any
stations south of Lambert start reporting rain reaching the
ground. Lgt/var winds will become northerly to northeasterly today
after fropa. Post-frontal MVFR stratus is expected and sprinkles
are also possible during the day.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1158 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 943 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
Updated forecast to bring scattered showers northwest of I-44 in
Missouri and I-70 in Illinois. Showers have persisted this evening
in area of low level moisture convergence underneath mid level
trough axis extending northward from upper low currently over the
Lower Mississippi Valley. CAMS are showing that these showers
will persist through the night, so expanded the PoPs accordingly.
Temperatures will likely not fall off too much tonight given the
clouds and current dewpoints.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
Forecast area continues to get squeezed between upper level
shortwave energy that is retrograding back to the north towards
forecast area and next cold front moving in from the northwest.
Showers currently trying to move into our far southern counties as
of 20z. So will initially see isolated/scattered showers develop and
advect north into forecast area through this evening and into the
overnight hours. In the meantime, cold front will move closer to
region from the northwest, but will not see any precipitation from
it until after 12z Tuesday, just an increase in cloud cover. Because
of this weather pattern, winds will be light and variable. As for
overnight lows, once again to remain about 10 degrees above normal,
in the low to mid 60s.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
FA will remain on the northern fringes of the upper low drifting
into the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow, while upper trof
pushing into the upper Great Lakes will allow cold front that
approaching northern sections of the FA late tonight to ooze
across the region during the day. Some PoPs will be tied to both
these features, but I`m really not sure that the 12z based MOS
from either the NAM or GFS have a real good handle on the expected
precip threat and/or trends.
Mass and moisture fields would certainly suggest that southeast
sections of the CWA will be on the northern fringes of the precip
associated with the southern system on Tuesday, which also suggests
that some MOS numbers in this section of the FA may be a bit too
high (and this has certainly been the case for the past several
days). However, the last few hours of the last several HRRR runs
suggest precip blossoming very late tonight as far north to near the
I44-I70 corridor...roughly near the northern trofing associated with
the upper low. I have upped PoPs some over the southeast half of
the CWA, but ultimately expect a pretty sharp PoP gradient that will
be resolved in the nowcast time frame.
Meanwhile across the north, expect a fairly large band of showers
along and especially north of the cold front just north of our FA
early Tuesday, with the showers working southeast and gradually
diminishing in coverage with time as the cold front works across the
region. Some low post-frontal shower threat will likely linger into
the evening hours before the drier air behind the front scours out
the low level moisture.
The latest 12z guidance is continuing the trend of the last few days
of being more bullish deepening the UA trof over the eastern CONUS
during the latter half of the week, which in turn allows for a
stronger intrusion of the Canadian high into the mid-Mississippi
Valley. Based on progged 850MB thermal profiles, temperatures will
have a decidely autumn feel...with highs dropping into the 60s and
lows tumbling into the 40s across the entire region Friday-Sunday.
With the high progged to exert greater dominance in the weather over
the region, it would appear that precip chances will be fairly low.
Specifics in the medium range UA progs are hard to pin down as
solutions are noisy and chaotic to say the least...but there does
seem to be some agreement that WAA will develop over the Plains
Friday night, with associated shower threat possibly working into
western/sw portions of the FA Sat-Sun.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Light fog is possible at KCOU towards
daybreak. Lgt/var winds at both KCOU and KUIN will become
northerly to northeasterly after fropa this morning. Post-frontal
MVFR stratus is expected and sprinkles are also possible.
Specifics for KSUS, KCPS: Showers worked a bit farther north than
previously anticipated and may reach KCPS within the next hour.
Any rain will decrease the T-Td spread at KCPS and make fog more
likely towards daybreak. T-Td spread is already low enough at KSUS
to add a mention of fog towards daybreak. Otherwise, lgt/var winds
will become northerly to northeasterly after fropa later this
morning and increase to around 12 kts. Post-frontal MVFR stratus
is expected and sprinkles are also possible during the day.
Specifics for KSTL: Scattered showers have been making slow
northward progress and later shifts may need to add VCSH if any
stations south of Lambert start reporting rain reaching the
ground. Lgt/var winds will become northerly to northeasterly today
after fropa. Post-frontal MVFR stratus is expected and sprinkles
are also possible during the day.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1138 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION WITH SEVERAL PV
ANOMALIES ROTATING AROUND IT. IN ADDITION...POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LOW OVER THE E PAC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PV CONNECTION TO THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. CLOSER TO HOME...WEAKER PV ANOMALY
MOVING ACROSS SRN WY ATTM GENERATING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS
ERN WY...WITH ISOLD SHRA/-TSRA IN PORTIONS OF NC NEBR ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAKENING MID LEVEL FGEN ACROSS THAT AREA. SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARLY STALLED FROM NEAR LIMON CO TO NORTH OF GLD TO JUST
S OF EAR TO S OF YANKTON SD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
NEW COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD OVERNIGHT WITH
MOST OF WESTERN AND NC NEBR REMAINING IN THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ATTENDANT TO A
EWD ADVANCING PV ANOMALY AS MENTIONED WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN
SD/NRN NEBR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT
OVERNIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AREA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
REMAINS PRESENT ON THE 305/310K LEVELS. ELEVATED WEAK TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS BROWN...ROCK AND HOLT COUNTIES
STILL ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FGEN WITHIN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. INTEGRATING THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OVERNIGHT YIELDS AN
AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA CURRENTLY OVER SWRN SD TO MOVE ACROSS NRN
NEBR BUT THEN SOME MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE 06- 09Z TIME FRAME THAT MAY ALLOW
REDEVELOPMENT WWD. MEANWHILE THE HRRR SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE SWD ADVANCING FRONT PRIOR TO 06Z AND THEN PUSHING SEWD
OVERNIGHT. WITH SEVERAL SMALL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TIMING AND LOCATION OF NEW DEVELOPMENT BECOMES DIFFICULT. HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIP...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STRONGER THAN WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD LOW VSBYS. HENCE HAVE SIDED ON PATCHY FOG
MENTION.
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY SO
WOULD EXPECT OCCASIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA ESPECIALLY IN SWRN
NEBR. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN CONSIDERABLY DUE TO LOW CLOUD COVER
AND ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
MODELS AGAIN COMING IN COOLER. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
NAM FOR THE MID TERM AND GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM. TOMORROW
NIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST SEVERAL WEAK WAVES MOVING
THROUGH RIDGE. ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH LLJ AND
SOME LIFT. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH DRIZZLE TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF WARMER THAN GFS. STRONG WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WITH SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COOL AT
THE SURFACE WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT AS WARNER AIR AT THE SURFACE TO
THE SOUTH LIFTED OVER THE COOLER AIR. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER
NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. TRANSITIONING TO RAINSHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. SHOWERS END
SUNDAY WITH A WARMUP INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EAST AND
70S WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. 50S AND 60S SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL AFTER
07Z IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING TIF...BBW AND
LBF. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM BOTH PRIMARY MODELS SUPPORTS
THAT FOR BBW AND LBF AND ONE OF THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT BULLETIN
SUPPORTS IT FOR VTN. THOUGH CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY...THE INSTRUMENT CEILINGS SHOULD REACH MARGINAL VISUAL
CONDITIONS LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...CEILINGS
OF 3000-5000 FEET AGL WILL DOMINATE.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1249 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE
EAST WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUE...SHRA CONT TO STREAM ONSHORE ESPCLY FROM HAT
S. KEPT HIGHER POPS ALONG CST WITH LOWER POPS INLAND REST OF
NIGHT PER RDR TRENDS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BUT SIGNIF CLOUD
COVER MAY LIMIT THREAT FOR DENSE FOG.
PREV DISC...LATEST RADAR IMAGES CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE
CRYSTAL COAST. POPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH THIS UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS. THE LATEST 00Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDING SHOWS RICH EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC TO ABOUT 700 MB WITH PW
OF 2.30 INCHES...SOME 2 TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA PROVIDING THE
LIFT FOR THE SHOWERS.
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
70S. SHOWER CHANCES AND ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD RAMP BACK UP AGAIN
NEAR THE COAST AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL CONTINUES TO BRING MORE
ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN THE AREA. FOR INLAND AREAS...THREAT FOR FOG
WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AS LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS COMBINED WITH TODAY`S RAINFALL ACT TO PRIME THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 4 PM MON...ANOTHER UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY DAY ON TUESDAY
EXPECTED WITH SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES
EXPECTED. SHOWERS SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE
DAY...TRANSITIONING INLAND AS COASTAL TROUGH MIGRATES INLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM EASTERLY TO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY...AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL TRANSPIRE...WITH
CAPE VALS AOA 2000 J/KG EXPECTED. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
ACCOMPANY CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AREA WIDE WITH
TD`S UNCOMFORABLY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE PLAGUED BY DIFFERENCES AND A LACK OF RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN WITH TD #11 IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH AND IT`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER
THE EASTERN US. THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME DISRUPTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THEN STALLS OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT A
MODERATE N/NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE LONG RANGE TRACK
OF TD #11 IS UNCERTAIN, MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BE DRAWN
TOWARD THE COAST WHILE A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW
VALUES AOA 2" FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD ALSO BE PICKED UP BY THE
UPPER TROUGH AND TRANSPORTED TO THE NORTH INTO OUR REGION. THE
MODELS UNDERSTANDABLY ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE
THIS COMPLEX SITUATION, THUS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS EACH
DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT
DRIER AIR COULD FILTER INTO THE REGION SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
THE TIMING OF THIS IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY THEN
POTENTIAL MUCH COOLER ESP OVER INLAND AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHERE SOME DEEP INLAND AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH 70.
NEXT WEEKEND...THE KEY TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA PUSHING THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME OFFSHORE AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO FINALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
WHEN THIS OCCURS WILL NEED MAINTAIN CHANCE LOW/SLIGHT POPS INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST. A DRIER DEEP W/NW
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER AS DEEP TROF MOVES EAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
THRU EARLY TO MID MORN. LOW LVLS SATURATED AND ALREADY SEE GOOD
DEAL OF IFR ST...THIS SHLD CONT AND POSS LOWER SOME AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCT SHRA MAY LIMIT FOG BUT
SHLD GET SOME ESPCLY WELL INLAND. FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED TO
BURN OFF/LIFT AROUND MID MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SCT TO POSS
NUMEROUS SHRA THRU THE DAY. WILL LIKELY SEE MIX OF MVFR AND VFR
THRU THE AFTN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, LOCATION AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS
PERIOD BUT PERIODIC SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS
THAT FORM AS TROPICAL AIR AGAIN IS DRAWN BACK INTO EASTERN NC.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 AM TUE...NO CHANGES WITH LARGE E SWELLS KEEPING SEAS
IN SCA RANGE. E WINDS EXPECTED TO GRAD DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE SE
TODAY AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SFC TRF MOVES
INLAND.
PREV DISC...MINOR TWEAKS WERE DONE WITH THIS UPDATE...BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS E/NE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. SAME GENERAL PATTERN
PERSISTS WITH EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO ELEVATE SEAS...THOUGH
THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
IN THE 7 TO 9 FOOT RANGE AS OBSERVED AREA BUOYS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SEAS WILL VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH
STILL REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 9 FOOT RANGE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS
BEEN NEAR THE COAST FINALLY BEGINS TO MIGRATE INLAND...WITH WINDS
VEERING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS A MOSTLY PERSISTENT MODERATE N/NE FLOW
AND ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE OVER THE NC WATERS IN A COMPLEX SURFACE
WEATHER PATTERN. LONG RANGE TRACK OF TD#11 STILL UNCERTAIN BUT MAY
HELP ENHANCE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE NC COAST LATE THIS WEEK.
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO TEMPORARILY DIMINISH AS A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS
MAY TURN SOUTHERLY FOR A BRIEF TIME AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO
DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED. BEHIND THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KT THURSDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO (BRIEFLY) SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT ON WEDNESDAY THEN AS
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SEAS
WILL BUILD BACK TO 6+ FT. OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS
SEAS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1240 AM TUE...CONTINUED VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDES WILL LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING ACROSS CARTERET COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST TUE
MORNING. HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS AS 5 TO 8 FOOT SURF HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...RF/SK/BM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME/BTC
AVIATION...RF/BTC
MARINE...RF/BTC/TL/BM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
331 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE
TODAY...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. AN EXTENSIVE
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FOCUS ON THE
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL
LOW AFFECTS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
145 AM UPDATE...
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
WITH JUST SOME BRIEF AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...AHEAD OF
INCREASING PWATS AND THE NOSE OF A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE EARLY MORNING...MIN TEMPS 15-20 DEG
F ABOVE NORMAL LOWS...IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CONCERNING HEAVY RAIN THREAT LATER TODAY THROUGH WED...THERE IS
QUITE GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH A SLIGHTLY LESSER AGREEMENT OF THE
PRECISE LOCATION. A LARGE QPF SPREAD OF GREATER THAN A FACTOR OF 2
EXISTS BETWEEN THE VERY WET NAM...AND THE GFS/GEFS/SREF/EC. GFS IS
THE FURTHEST SE WITH THE QPF AXIS/FROM THE LAURELS TO NRN
POCONOS...WHILE THE EC HAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE NW AND
NCENT MTNS...75NM OR SO FURTHER NW.
AREA RIVERS AND STREAM BASIN CAN HANDLE QUITE A LOT OF RAIN
/3.5-4.5 INCHES OVER A 3-12 HOUR PERIOD/...WHICH IS WHERE THE BULK
OF MODEL STORM TOTAL QPF LIES. HOWEVER...THE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF
8-11 INCHES PAINTED BY THE NAM FROM NEAR KJST AND KIDI...NORTHEAST
TO KDUJ AND LELM WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY CAUSE SIGNIFCANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS. FEEL THAT THE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF THE EXCESSIVE QPF IS
OVERDONE ON THE NAM. HOWEVER...THE SYNPOTIC SETUP WITH PWAT
ANOMALIES OF AROUND 3 SIGMA...AND WELL-DEFINED/SLOW MOVING JET
ENTRANCE ABOVE THE SFC CFRONT...WILL COMBINE WITH GENERALLY LOW
CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG TO BRING SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING BANDS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED TSRA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES OVER A 12
HOUR PERIOD. WPC QPF FORECAST FOR THROUGH 48 HOURS IS 2.5 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PENN AND THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.
1045 PM UPDATE... INTERESTING TO WATCH THE NEW 00Z NAM COME
IN...BUT MOSTLY FOR WHAT IT SAYS FOR TUES/NIGHT. IN THE NEAR-
TERM...NO CHANGES FORSEEN AS THE SPRINKLES ARE WELL- HANDLED AND
REAL ORGANIZATION TO THE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.
745 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WANING ALREADY AND HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND.
THE SPRINKLES OUT THERE NOW MAY MAKE THE GROUND WET...BUT THEY ARE
ALSO MOVING ALONG QUICKLY. THEREFORE A 20 POP IS ALL THAT IS
NECESSARY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY 09Z...SOME
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SLIDE INTO THE NWRN COS.
PREV...
PLUME OF 1.5" PW POOLED AHEAD OF SHEARING 5H TROF WITHIN 850 MB
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS MAINTAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL WANE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WEAK FORCING IN VERY MOIST AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
ANY APPRECIABLE QPF TONIGHT...DESPITE THE COPIOUS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER AND SURGING DWPT WILL TRANSLATE TO A MILD
NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH MINS BTWN 60 AND 65F FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SET UP FOR TODAY IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE INTERESTING WITH
TIME...WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FIRST THINGS FIRST HOWEVER...GULF COAST UPPER
CUTOFF WILL DIRECT A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA DURING THE DAY TODAY...WHILE
A SLOW MOVING SFC FRONT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKES...REACHING NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES...BUT A GREATLY INCREASING PROBABILITY OF
SHRA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ISOLATED TSTORMS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE DESTABLIZE
THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH REACHES +15C AT 850 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MY SOUTH. CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
COMING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /WHICH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY/.
TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS PACKAGE.
INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. THIS BASED LARGELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS THIS
AFT...WHICH SHOW CLOUD ELEMENTS OVER EASTERN NC WORKING NW.
SITUATION LOOKS LIKE A PRE EVENT. SOME MEMBERS OVER 6 INCHES
OF RAIN...BUT THAT LOOKS A LITTLE HIGH. 1 TO 3 WITH SOME
HIGHER AMTS LOOKS BETTER. CAN HANDLE THIS AMT OK...UNLESS
ALL IN A SHORT TIME INTERVAL. LATER SHIFTS CAN ISSUE WATCHES
IF NEEDED.
DID UP POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED AM...AND PUT CHC OF THUNDER
IN FCST.
DID NOT DO MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES.
LATER WED INTO EARLY FRIDAY...LEAST CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
STILL LOOKING WET FOR SAT...BUT STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODELS.
LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WOULD LIFT OUT FAST ENOUGH TO
HAVE PART OF SUNDAY SEEING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.
WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR MONDAY.
MORE DETAIL BELOW.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SIG RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PA
TUES NIGHT/WED...AS SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWATS NR 3SD ABV NORMAL...COMBINED WITH
MDL INSTABILITY AND SLOW MOVING FRONT SUPPORT THE IDEA OF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD 1+ INCH AMTS...WITH MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS. GIVEN
THE RECENT DRYNESS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING NOT A CONCERN. HOWEVER...WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO.
CONFIDENCE IN LINGERING WET WX APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
CENTRAL PA LATE THIS WEEK...AS ALL MDLS HAVE CONVERGED ON IDEA OF
A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW CRAWLING
UP THE MID ATL COAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE THU-SAT TIME
FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE...NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
TEMPS BLW CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SETTLIGN IN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY
FROM THE S/SE.
LIMITED IF ANY IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS ON TUE AS AREA OF RAIN
EXPANDS OVER CENTRAL PA. MVFR/IFR CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
AS RAIN ARRIVES EARY IN THE DAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR IN
THE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIP ARRIVES LATER AND REMAINS
MAINLY LIGHT UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSS...BUT PROB MUCH TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY
WED...WITH PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF
GENERALLY 5-10MPH.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS AND RAIN LIKELY...DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST.
TUE NIGHT...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS IN RAIN.
WED...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS IN RAIN EARLY. TAPERING TO SCT SHOWERS
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THU...MAINLY VFR/MFVR AM FOG AND ISOLD SHOWERS.
FRI-SAT...CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
216 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE
TODAY...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. AN EXTENSIVE
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FOCUS ON THE
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL
LOW AFFECTS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
145 AM UPDATE...
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA...
WITH JUST SOME BRIEF AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...AHEAD OF
INCREASING PWATS AND THE NOSE OF A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE.
THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE EARLY MORNING...MIN TEMPS 15-20 DEG
F ABOVE NORMAL LOWS...IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CONCERNING HEAVY RAIN THREAT LATER TODAY THROUGH WED...THERE IS
QUITE GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH A SLIGHTLY LESSER AGREEMENT OF THE
PRECISE LOCATION. A LARGE QPF SPREAD OF GREATER THAN A FACTOR OF 2
EXISTS BETWEEN THE VERY WET NAM...AND THE GFS/GEFS/SREF/EC. GFS IS
THE FURTHEST SE WITH THE QPF AXIS/FROM THE LAURELS TO NRN
POCONOS...WHILE THE EC HAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE NW AND
NCENT MTNS...75NM OR SO FURTHER NW.
AREA RIVERS AND STREAM BASIN CAN HANDLE QUITE A LOT OF RAIN
/3.5-4.5 INCHES OVER A 3-12 HOUR PERIOD/...WHICH IS WHERE THE BULK
OF MODEL STORM TOTAL QPF LIES. HOWEVER...THE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF
8-11 INCHES PAINTED BY THE NAM FROM NEAR KJST AND KIDI...NORTHEAST
TO KDUJ AND LELM WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY CAUSE SIGNIFCANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS. FEEL THAT THE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF THE EXCESSIVE QPF IS
OVERDONE ON THE NAM. HOWEVER...THE SYNPOTIC SETUP WITH PWAT
ANOMALIES OF AROUND 3 SIGMA...AND WELL-DEFINED/SLOW MOVING JET
ENTRANCE ABOVE THE SFC CFRONT...WILL COMBINE WITH GENERALLY LOW
CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG TO BRING SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING BANDS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED TSRA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES OVER A 12
HOUR PERIOD. WPC QPF FORECAST FOR THROUGH 48 HOURS IS 2.5 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PENN AND THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.
1045 PM UPDATE... INTERESTING TO WATCH THE NEW 00Z NAM COME
IN...BUT MOSTLY FOR WHAT IT SAYS FOR TUES/NIGHT. IN THE NEAR-
TERM...NO CHANGES FORSEEN AS THE SPRINKLES ARE WELL- HANDLED AND
REAL ORGANIZATION TO THE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.
745 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS WANING ALREADY AND HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND.
THE SPRINKLES OUT THERE NOW MAY MAKE THE GROUND WET...BUT THEY ARE
ALSO MOVING ALONG QUICKLY. THEREFORE A 20 POP IS ALL THAT IS
NECESSARY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY 09Z...SOME
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SLIDE INTO THE NWRN COS.
PREV...
PLUME OF 1.5" PW POOLED AHEAD OF SHEARING 5H TROF WITHIN 850 MB
CONVERGENCE ZONE IS MAINTAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL WANE
LATE TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
WEAK FORCING IN VERY MOIST AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE
ANY APPRECIABLE QPF TONIGHT...DESPITE THE COPIOUS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER AND SURGING DWPT WILL TRANSLATE TO A MILD
NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH MINS BTWN 60 AND 65F FOR MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SET UP FOR TODAY IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE INTERESTING WITH
TIME...WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FIRST THINGS FIRST HOWEVER...GULF COAST UPPER
CUTOFF WILL DIRECT A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA DURING THE DAY TODAY...WHILE
A SLOW MOVING SFC FRONT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKES...REACHING NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE
CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES...BUT A GREATLY INCREASING PROBABILITY OF
SHRA THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ISOLATED TSTORMS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE DESTABLIZE
THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH REACHES +15C AT 850 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS MY SOUTH. CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
COMING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /WHICH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY/.
TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS PACKAGE.
INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. THIS BASED LARGELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS THIS
AFT...WHICH SHOW CLOUD ELEMENTS OVER EASTERN NC WORKING NW.
SITUATION LOOKS LIKE A PRE EVENT. SOME MEMBERS OVER 6 INCHES
OF RAIN...BUT THAT LOOKS A LITTLE HIGH. 1 TO 3 WITH SOME
HIGHER AMTS LOOKS BETTER. CAN HANDLE THIS AMT OK...UNLESS
ALL IN A SHORT TIME INTERVAL. LATER SHIFTS CAN ISSUE WATCHES
IF NEEDED.
DID UP POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED AM...AND PUT CHC OF THUNDER
IN FCST.
DID NOT DO MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES.
LATER WED INTO EARLY FRIDAY...LEAST CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
STILL LOOKING WET FOR SAT...BUT STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE
MODELS.
LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WOULD LIFT OUT FAST ENOUGH TO
HAVE PART OF SUNDAY SEEING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING.
WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR MONDAY.
MORE DETAIL BELOW.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SIG RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PA
TUES NIGHT/WED...AS SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWATS NR 3SD ABV NORMAL...COMBINED WITH
MDL INSTABILITY AND SLOW MOVING FRONT SUPPORT THE IDEA OF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD 1+ INCH AMTS...WITH MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS. GIVEN
THE RECENT DRYNESS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING NOT A CONCERN. HOWEVER...WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO.
CONFIDENCE IN LINGERING WET WX APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
CENTRAL PA LATE THIS WEEK...AS ALL MDLS HAVE CONVERGED ON IDEA OF
A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW CRAWLING
UP THE MID ATL COAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE THU-SAT TIME
FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE...NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
TEMPS BLW CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE RELATIVELY QUIET NOW...QUIET BEFORE THE STORM.
MODELS AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW CEILINGS WILL EXPAND
OVERNIGHT BUT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR SHOULD DEVELOP.
BY SUNRISE THERE WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR.
MODELS STILL SHOW RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY FROM NW TO
SE. TIMED THE RAIN BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SREF. THIS
SHOWS RAPID INCREASE CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR IN NORTHWEST
AREAS NEAR KBFD BY 10-12Z. RAIN SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
TRIED TO SHOW TIMING OF MORE ORGANIZED RAIN THROUGH JST-AOO-UNV-
IPT AND MDT/LNS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD GET A GOOD RAINFALL BEST RAIN AND
LOWERED CIGS/VIS AT THIS TIME COULD BE OVER CENTRAL PA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DID NOT PUT THUNDER IN TAFS BUT
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IS AN ISSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF
GENERALLY 5-10MPH IN THE SHALLOW COOL MOIST AIR. THE WARM AIR
LIFTING OVER THIS TUESDAY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF OUR RAIN.
THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. MVFR
AND IFR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLE LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG AND
MORE INTENSE RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS AND RAIN LIKELY...MOVING WEST TO EAST.
TUE NIGHT...LOW CIGS/RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY.
WED...LOW CIGS EARLY. RAIN TO SCT SHOWERS IN AFTERNOON.
THU...MAINLY VFR/MFVR AM FOG AND ISOLD SHOWERS.
FRI-SAT...CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
516 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 06Z/2AM TONIGHT.
THE 00Z GFS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE WERE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS LOW THAN THE NAM. ALL MODEL SHOWED INCREASING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND UPSLOPE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AIDE IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH THE BETTER JET
DYNAMICS REMAINED ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND THE IMPACTS FROM THIS RAIN FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STARTING OUT VERY MILD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO
AROUND 70. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL RANGE FROM 1.6 TO 2.2 TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD BACK RISE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 0315 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW. DESPITE
THE PASSING OF THE FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS UNITED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO-TENN
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS TROUGH COULD
BECOME A CLOSED LOW ON THURSDAY. IF THIS CLOSED LOW DOES TAKE
SHAPE...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. TO PUT A GOOD SPIN ON A DREARY FORECAST...THE BULK OF THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
MAY BE A LITTLE ROUGH AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND
MODERATE DYNAMICS PRODUCE A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS. WITH AN ALREADY
SATURATED PLAYING FIELD...MODERATE RAIN RATES AND A RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING LINE OF STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SOME THUNDER MAY BE HEARD WHILE THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW.
MORNING RAIN AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
COOL NORTHERLY AIR AND RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE
5F-10F BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH PAIRED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PAIRING WILL MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS AT ROUGHLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. ONCE THIS
TAKES PLACE...ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND NOTABLY COOLER AIR ADVANCING INTO AT LEAST THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT TUESDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM
BOTH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH AT
LEAST 15Z/11AM THIS MORNING. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
VALUES THROUGH 00Z/8PM.
IFR STRATUS AND MVFR FOG WILL FILL BACK IN AFTER 00Z/8PM TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MODELS SUGGEST POOR FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS A LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRACKING FROM AROUND RALEIGH TO
BLACKSBURG SINCE AROUND 8PM. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN LESS THAN THREE HOURS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL. RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS RAIN
WAS FALLING OVER COUNTIES THAT ALREADY HAD AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10
INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MODELS WERE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
UPSLOPE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
EXPECTED LOCATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE
ONGOING FEED OF MOISTURE AND TRAINING SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A MAJORITY OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
RUNOFF...INITIALLY IMPACTING SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH RAPID
RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. LATER TODAY AND INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL RESPOND TO THE RAINFALL. FLOODING ON THE
RIVERS IS NOT CERTAIN BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ012>020-
022>024-032>035-043>045-058.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
HYDROLOGY...NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
844 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SENT OUT AN EARLY UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
AREAS FROM ORLANDO TO CAPE SOUTHWARD. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL NOT
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WITH AMOUNTS
GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. BASED ON SPEED
ESTIMATES THIS RAIN SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING. LATEST
WRF AND HRRR THEN KEEP PRECIP INTO THE AFT MORE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE DUE TO MORE CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THIS ALSO LINES
UP WELL WITH THE GFS INDICATING DEEPER MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL S/W
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA LATER INTO THE AFT. HOWEVER ANY BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER AND ADDITIONAL HEATING EARLY IN THE AFT MAY LEAD TO
HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE.
CLOUD COVER/RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD KEEP HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS FAIRLY
LIGHT WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDS OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER
SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE RAIN OR ANY ISO STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS. AS RAIN SHIFTS EAST SCT SHOWERS AND
ISO STORMS GENERALLY EXPECTED INTO THE AFT...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES
REMAIN CLOUD AND LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WIND WAVES AND GUSTS AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF ~10 SEC SWELL
DUE TO LARGE FETCH AREA OVER THE MID ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
INTO THE EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST.
&&
.COASTAL...THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THE
EVENING AS ELEVATED SWELLS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH
DEPARTURES UP TO 1 TO 1.5 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE LEVELS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AND WAVE RUN UP TO THE BASE OF DUNES ALONG
MANY ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.
THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT:
DAYTONA BEACH......925 AM TUESDAY...953 PM TUESDAY
PORT CANAVERAL.....911 AM TUESDAY...934 PM TUESDAY
SEBASTIAN INLET....923 AM TUESDAY...940 PM TUESDAY
FT PIERCE INLET....940 AM TUESDAY...957 PM TUESDAY
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR IS JUST UNDER 3.0 FT
THIS MORNING...OR ABOUT 0.16 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HIGHER
THAN NORMAL HIGH TIDES DOWNSTREAM HAVE AFFECTED THE DISCHARGE RATE
BACKING UP THE RIVER LEVEL. RIVER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY WHILE REMAINING IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH MID
WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN NEAR
THE BASIN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR
RISES DEPENDING ON ANY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
611 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
08Z water vapor imagery shows several pieces of energy around an
upper ridge centered off the coast of the CA Baja. A couple closed
lows were noted over the TX/LA gulf coast and over the Pacific, west
of San Fransisco. Meanwhile a broad upper level trough was located
over the Hudson Bay with a shortwave moving through the southern
periphery of this trough across NEB. At the surface, a cold front
has just move into northern portions of the forecast area and was
located from near CNK to MYZ.
Forcing for precip today and tonight appears to be limited as models
take the PVA from the shortwave over NEB to the east into IA. As
seen on the 00Z TOP RAOB, there is still a fair amount of dry air
ahead of the front and not a whole lot of instability. Because of
this the models have been backing off on their QPF progs. Do not
feel comfortable removing POPs altogether, but have trended them
lower through the day today. The biggest factor that gives me pause
is the trend to continue developing some very modest surface based
CAPE (around 500 J/kg) ahead of the front across east central KS
this afternoon. Although models show the low level convergence along
the boundary to be almost nonexistent by the time this instability
develops. So in general think measurable rainfall will be hard to
come by today, but not impossible. Temps could be a little tricky in
that if there is some insolation behind the front, highs could be a
little warmer than expected since there does not appear to be a
really cold airmass across NEB right now. For now have continued
with highs near 80 in the southern counties with readings expected
to be around 70 over the northern counties.
Tonight appears to be somewhat similar in that large scale forcing
is lacking. The one thing of note is the models suggest a
convectively induced vort max could move through central KS this
evening from the high plains. The warm air advection pattern does
not look as strong in the solutions as previous nights and
isentropic lift is kind of shallow and not as well organized as it
could be, focused mainly across north central KS. So this is where
the forecast continues to show some small (20 to 30 percent) POPs.
Models suggest the stronger push of cold and dry air will occur
overnight. Therefore have trended min temps cooler ranging from the
upper 40s north to the mid 50s south.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
An unsettled upper air pattern continues in the extended with a
series of systems, mostly weak, impact the area while bringing
chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. These systems in
turn, hold the cooler airmass in place with highs below normal
through early next week.
Mid level ridging strengthens over the Inter-mountain West as the
open shortwave trough amplifies across the west coast. Weak embedded
pieces of energy appear to be consistent with guidance, rounding the
northern periphery of the ridge before tracking southward across
central KS. Therefore have maintained slight to chc pops over north
central KS while most of the area remains dry Wednesday to early
Friday. Weak easterly winds at or below 10 kts through this period
will continue to advect cooler air into the region. Latest guidance
is continuing to pick up on the breadth of these cooler temps by
lowering highs to near 70 degrees on Wednesday and down to the
middle and upper 60s on Thursday. Cloud coverage will also play a
role with temps as mostly cloudy skies for north central KS allows
for cooler afternoons in the 60s and warmer evenings in the 50s.
Meanwhile over far northeast Kansas and east central areas, clear
skies will radiate cooler air to the surface with lows both evenings
in the middle to upper 40s.
A stronger and more organized upper trough will shift eastward over
the Rockies and into the central plains by Friday afternoon into
Saturday. Confidence in this system is beginning to increase with
similar timing from the latest GFS with the ECMWF and GEM. Best
chances for precip centers when the trough axis enters late Friday
evening into Saturday with scattered activity throughout the day.
Poor lapse rates with no instability signals rain showers expected.
In addition, cloudy skies and cold air advection may subsequently
only raise highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s both Friday and
Saturday. System exits late Saturday evening with partly cloudy
skies returning. Sunday begins the warming trend as highs recover in
the mid 60s, warming to the lower 70s by Monday. Pattern becomes
more uncertain at this point as the next upper wave enters the west
coast. Strength of the ridging off the west coast will determine
whether this system brings decent precip back into the area by the
ECMWF or digs it straight south and east over the southern plains on
the GFS. Will focus chances for showers mainly south of Interstate
70 at this time on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
With models taking the best forcing and deeper moisture north and
east of the terminals, think chances for precip are to small to
include in the forecast. There is an area of MVFR CIGS that trail
the front by a couple hours. Biggest uncertainty is whether they
make it into the terminals and how long they stick around. Since
both the NAM and RAP show higher RH values making it in, will
go ahead and put it in. Although the RAP is quick to mix out the
low level moisture so have only put the CIGS in as a tempo for
now.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
724 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SRN MANITOBA. ACCOMPANYING 12HR HGT
FALLS UP TO 70M ARE DEEPENING TROF A BIT CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY
INTO THE UPR LKS. ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
THRU UPR MI...ALLOWING AN INFLUX OF MUCH COOLER AIR WITH 00Z H85
TEMPS AS LO AS -5C AT THE PAS MANITOBA AND -2C AT YPL. DESPITE THE
CHILL OF THIS INCOMING AIRMASS RELATIVE TO THE WARM LK WATERS /AS
HI AS 15C OVER WRN LK SUP/...DRYNESS OF THE LLVL AIRMASS DEPICTED ON
THE UPSTREAM RAOBS AND LARGER SCALE ACYC NW FLOW TO THE E OF SFC HI
PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS HAVE PREVENTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LK
CLDS. PWATS AT THE PAS AND YPL WERE AROUND 0.25 INCH. UNDER THE
SHARP PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF THE HI...NW WINDS HAVE GUSTED UP TO
30 KTS AT SOME OF THE HIER PLATFORMS ON LK SUP. THERE ARE SOME HI
CLDS STREAKING ACRS THE UPR LKS ON THE NRN FLANK OF A DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST...BUT PCPN/THICKER CLDS ARE CLOSER
TO DEEP MSTR WELL TO THE S.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON TEMPS TNGT AND NEED
FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
TODAY...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHRTWV THRU NW ONTARIO AND ATTENDANT
COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG...LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE WL
DOMINATE AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES CENTER TO SHIFT NEAR WRN LK SUP BY
00Z THIS EVNG. GUSTY NW WINDS...REACHING NEAR 30 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER
THE E HALF CLOSE TO LK SUP UNDER STRONG CAA THIS MRNG WL ADVECT THE
DRIER LLVL AIR INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME SCT CU COULD DVLP WITH
ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS AND ACYC
FLOW WL BRING ABOUT A MOSUNNY DAY. DESPITE THIS SUNSHINE...H85 TEMPS
NO HIER THAN 2C WL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES. THE
STRONG NW WINDS OVER LK SUP WL BRING HIER WAVES UP TO 5 FT AND A HI
SWIM RISK ALONG THE BEACHES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS IS FCST TO STRETCH FM NEAR JAMES BAY
ACRS WRN UPR MI AND INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. UNDER LGT WINDS
AND MOCLR SKIES WITH PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25 INCH...EXPECT MIN TEMPS
OVER THE WRN CWA TO PLUMMET BLO 32 AT MANY PLACES OVER THE INTEIOR W
HALF. ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR E HALF MAY SEE THE
MECURY TUMBLE BLO 32 AS WELL...A BIT TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT/HIER H925
WINDS UP TO 15-20KT WL LIMIT THE AREA OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE LK SHORES...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP E OF THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI S OF ESCANABA...SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH
MIN TEMPS HOLDING AOA 40. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...OPTED TO MAINTAIN FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR W
HALF. INCLUDED DICKINSON COUNTY IN THIS LATEST VERSION AS WINDS
THERE WL BE SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT. ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA TO INDICATE THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF FROST AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES GIVES WAY
TO RISING HEIGHTS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WILL BUILD TO OVER 1042MB BY 12Z FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. DUE TO
THE SFC RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER. AFTER
WIDESPREAD FROST EARLY ON...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST AND NCNTRL CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NAM/GFS/GEM- REGIONAL
SHOWING POCKET OF HIGHER H85 RH AND H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C WHILE WATER
TEMPS ARE 13-15C. OVERALL DRYNESS OF AIRMASS AND LACK OF CYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS. EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BLO H85 RESULT IN MOST CLOUDS OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR NCNTRL...
SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS OF MAIN MODELS. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY STAY IN
THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
CHILLY NIGHT WITH FROST LIKELY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEADY EAST WINDS ABOVE 10 KTS H95-H85 BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PWATS LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES...NEAR SFC LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE AND MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE MORE IN THE UPR 30S TO AROUND
40 DEGREES. COOL AIRMASS PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY IN THE 50S...BUT THIS TIME WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. THOUGH SFC
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AIRMASS
CHANGES LITTLE AND IN FACT...PWATS ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
CHECKING IN LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. LOWERED MINS TOWARD COOLER MEX
GUIDANCE AND ADDED MENTION OF FROST. COOLEST READINGS IN LOW 30S WILL
BE FOR THE INTERIOR.
BY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW TROUGH OR AT LEAST A PORTION OF IT
RETROGRADING WEST BETWEEN UPPER RIDGES OVER MANITOBA/NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS FM MODELS
THAT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE THIS WEEK WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND TO BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST EASTERN
PART OF CWA. TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN COULD BE FURTHER COMPLICATED
BY TROPICAL SYSTEM JOAQUIN LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OR ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER 1040MB CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
WILL KEEP RIDGE AND DRY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
AT LEAST FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. AGREEMENT DECREASES BY LATER
WEEKEND DUE TO HOW FAR WEST MODELS BRING SFC LOW TIED INTO THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING NORTH FM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. 00Z RUNS VARY WILDLY FM
STRONGER SFC LOW AS FAR WEST AS GEORGIAN BAY PER THE GFS AND MORE
OVER THE EAST COAST FM THE GEM-NH AND ECMWF. THOUGH GFS SOLUTION IS
NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN IT HAS SHOWED IT OCCASIONALLY IN
THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT GEM-NH SHOWED A DAY AGO.
GIVEN THE VOLITILITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL
STAY WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS WHICH SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAINLY OVER THE EAST CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY COOL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES
DURING THE DAYTIME AND MID 30S TO MID 40S DURING THE NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
GUSTY NNW WINDS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES MOVING E THRU MN WILL
ADVECT VERY DRY AIR INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS...LEADING TO VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TERMINALS THIS FCST PERIOD. AS THE HI PRES MOVES
CLOSER LATER TODAY AND DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING SUBSIDES...THE GUSTY
WINDS WL DIMINISH AOB 5 KTS BY 30/00Z.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT E OF HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT NNW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT OVER THE
WEST HALF AS THE HI DRIFTS NEARLY OVERHEAD...BUT N VEERING NE WINDS
UP TO 20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E UNDER TIGHTER GRADIENT
FARTHER FROM THE HI PRES RIDGE AXIS. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS
SLOWLY ENE AND INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A STEADY 15-25KT
ENE WIND WILL PERSIST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MIZ002-004-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1020 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.UPDATE...CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW VERY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS OVER THE DELTA. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH HI-TEMPS IN
THE LOW 80S. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED
RECENTLY...AND HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FEEL THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AT LEAST
CHANCE RAINSHOWERS IS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED THE
WEATHER AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER
THAN THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK./15/
.DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT "WET" WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE ARKLAMISS
HAS UNDER-ACHIEVED IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...AND WITH DRIER AIR POISED
TO MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK...WE EXPECT FIRE
WEATHER DANGER TO BE ON THE INCREASE.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...RECENT NWP MODEL OUTPUT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
AND ACCURATE WITH THE SHORT TERM SCENARIO. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE UPPER TX COAST/SW LA IS NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF OPENING UP...AND IT SHOULD SHEAR EASTWARD AS HEIGHT FALLS
SEND A A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES AND WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS GIVEN DAYTIME
HEATING BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED TO GIVE WEIGHT TO THE
DRIER HRRR GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE AND HAVE CUT BACK ON
CONSENSUS POPS SOME...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT HRRR IS LOOKING A BIT
WETTER. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKY GIVEN THE
EXPECTATION FOR SOME CLOUD BREAKS AGAIN AND HAVE FOLLOWED A WARMER
BLEND OF GUIDANCE BASED ON WHAT TRANSPIRED MONDAY. /EC/
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY HAS FAILED TO
PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD HELPFUL PRECIP DOES NOT BODE
WELL FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS TIGHTENING AROUND A SOLUTION WHERE BAROCLINIC
INTERACTION OF A WEAK EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH NEWLY-FORMED TS
JOAQUIN STRENGTHENS SAID TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL JOAQUIN COULD BE A MAJOR WEATHER-MAKER
FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE THE COMING WEEKEND IS OVER...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY HIGH IT WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...THE MENTIONED SYNOPTIC INTERACTION WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SERIOUS PATTERN
AMPLIFICATION...LIKELY RESULTING IN A FEW DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES
BETWEEN THURSDAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
OF COURSE THESE COLD FRONTS WILL USHER IN SOME RELATIVELY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SPECTER OF
CASCADING DROUGHT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ARKLAMISS (EXCEPT
MAYBE IN PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MS) THIS PATTERN HAS POTENTIAL TO
INCREASE FIRE DANGER MARKEDLY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECASTS DO NOT
SHOW DAYTIME RH VALUES DROPPING OFF BELOW 25 PERCENT IN THE LONG
RANGE ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES)
IF DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BE DEEPER THAN NWP MODELS ANTICIPATE AT
THIS JUNCTURE. DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH...ADDING TO THE CONCERN. FOR THIS PACKAGE WE HAVE INTRODUCED
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND THIS
RISK IN TIME AND SPACE IF FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE.
IN FACT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE PATTERN SETTING UP LATE
THIS WEEK COULD DIG IN AND LAST THROUGH THE DEFINED LONG TERM PERIOD
IF BAROCLINIC TROUGH INTERACTION WITH JOAQUIN IS EXTREME AND
PERSISTENT. OF COURSE THAT WOULD ONLY WORSEN DROUGHT AND PROLONG
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER...WHILE A BRIEFER INTERACTION
WOULD ALLOW AMPLIFICATION TO BREAK DOWN MORE QUICKLY AND PERHAPS
BRING BACK SOME RAIN CHANCES BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN LIFTING BUT REMAIN
MVFR TO IFR. EXPECT THESE LOW CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BACK TO MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY
BUT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS WITH RAINFALL...DONT EXPECT MUCH AND WILL
KEEP SOME VCSH/SHRA IN TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE MVFR TO IFR
CATEGORIES POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. /28/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 83 68 83 63 / 39 24 26 6
MERIDIAN 83 67 82 62 / 36 31 41 14
VICKSBURG 83 67 84 61 / 41 23 10 4
HATTIESBURG 85 69 86 65 / 33 29 37 16
NATCHEZ 83 67 84 62 / 35 23 10 6
GREENVILLE 84 68 83 60 / 40 26 10 5
GREENWOOD 84 67 81 59 / 45 28 16 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
/EC/BB/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1009 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. CURRENTLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...BUT THE REST OF THE
AREA REMAINS QUIET IN REGARDS TO THUNDER. KEPT IN MENTION OF
THUNDER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. DROPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON IN
THE SOUTHWEST AS THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH AND EAST
TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT LEAST 60 POPS SINCE SOME SHORT TERM
MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP A BIT MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.
BNA/CKV/CSV...A MESSY DAY IS SHAPING UP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WITH A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ALOFT AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST HRRR DOESN`T SHOW
PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS, BUT MOST
PLACES WILL STILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY, HENCE
THE HIGH POP`S. SO LOOK FOR PERIODS OF RAIN, FOG, AND LOW CIGS
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT IFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY MID-EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG TONIGHT, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF MOST OF THE FOG, SO WILL JUST GO WITH LOW CIGS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BARNWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
624 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S.
BNA/CKV/CSV...A MESSY DAY IS SHAPING UP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WITH A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ALOFT AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST HRRR DOESN`T SHOW
PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS, BUT MOST
PLACES WILL STILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY, HENCE
THE HIGH POP`S. SO LOOK FOR PERIODS OF RAIN, FOG, AND LOW CIGS
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT IFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY MID-EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG TONIGHT, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF MOST OF THE FOG, SO WILL JUST GO WITH LOW CIGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015/
DISCUSSION...IT WAS CLOUDY AND MILD ACROSS THE MID STATE EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOWER 70S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, ALONG
WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR CKV. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTH. &&
SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A VERY MOIST FLOW OF AIR UP
ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MORE THAN A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE DAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PHASES IN WITH MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH
TONIGHT AND STARTS TO PULL EASTWARD, BRINGING A SURFACE DEW POINT
FRONT TO NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z/WED. EXPECT FRONT
TO SAG ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW, WHERE TEMPS WILL PROBABLY ONLY RISE 3 TO 5
DEGS, AND HIGHS TOP OUT NEAR 70. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, EXPECT A
SLIGHTLY GREATER TEMP RISE, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
QPF TOTALS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND AN
INCH OVER EASTERN COUNTIES, TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN AREAS NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. SO, BELIEVE ALL AREAS WILL GET A DECENT
SOAKING. QPF AMOUNTS DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY, WITH AMOUNTS FORECAST
TO BE MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH.
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY,
WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY NOON,
AND OVER EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN AREAS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU NOT EVEN
MAKING IT OUT THE 60S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEST.
LONG TERM...EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK, KEEPING AT LEAST BKN CIGS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH AT LEAST
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AT WEEK`S END, WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. FRESH NORTH WINDS WILL
MAKE IT SEEM EVEN CHILLIER. LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR NEXT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 76 68 72 60 / 100 50 30 10
CLARKSVILLE 76 64 69 56 / 80 40 20 10
CROSSVILLE 73 65 71 58 / 100 60 60 30
COLUMBIA 78 68 74 59 / 90 50 40 10
LAWRENCEBURG 77 68 75 59 / 90 50 40 10
WAVERLY 78 65 69 58 / 80 40 30 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
937 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATEST FORECAST UPDATE REFLECTS CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN FROM STOKES
COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH PATRICK COUNTY...ACROSS
FLOYD AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE PATRICK COUNTY MEETS FLOYD COUNTY...AS WELL AS
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AS OF 930...ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH 2 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR
RAINFALL RATES...IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS PATRICK COUNTY. AN
ADDITIONAL TWO TO THREE INCHES IS LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN
THIS AREA THROUGH NOON.
LATEST RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CARRIES ABNORMALLY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED CLOSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MONTGOMERY...FLOYD AND PATRICK COUNTIES. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE
RAPIDLY DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH MANY OF THE SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS FROM STOKES COUNTY NC THROUGH MONTGOMERY COUNTY VA
SWELLING OUT OF THEIR BANKS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 06Z/2AM TONIGHT.
THE 00Z GFS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE WERE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS LOW THAN THE NAM. ALL MODEL SHOWED INCREASING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND UPSLOPE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AIDE IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH THE BETTER JET
DYNAMICS REMAINED ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND THE IMPACTS FROM THIS RAIN FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STARTING OUT VERY MILD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO
AROUND 70. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL RANGE FROM 1.6 TO 2.2 TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD BACK RISE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 0315 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW. DESPITE
THE PASSING OF THE FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS UNITED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO-TENN
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS TROUGH COULD
BECOME A CLOSED LOW ON THURSDAY. IF THIS CLOSED LOW DOES TAKE
SHAPE...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. TO PUT A GOOD SPIN ON A DREARY FORECAST...THE BULK OF THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
MAY BE A LITTLE ROUGH AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND
MODERATE DYNAMICS PRODUCE A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS. WITH AN ALREADY
SATURATED PLAYING FIELD...MODERATE RAIN RATES AND A RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING LINE OF STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SOME THUNDER MAY BE HEARD WHILE THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW.
MORNING RAIN AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
COOL NORTHERLY AIR AND RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE
5F-10F BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH PAIRED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PAIRING WILL MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS AT ROUGHLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. ONCE THIS
TAKES PLACE...ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND NOTABLY COOLER AIR ADVANCING INTO AT LEAST THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM
BOTH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH AT
LEAST 15Z/11AM THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR VALUES THROUGH 00Z/8PM.
IFR STRATUS AND MVFR FOG WILL FILL BACK IN AFTER 00Z/8PM TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MODELS SUGGEST POOR FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS A LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRACKING FROM AROUND RALEIGH TO
BLACKSBURG SINCE AROUND 8PM. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN LESS THAN THREE HOURS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL. RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS RAIN
WAS FALLING OVER COUNTIES THAT ALREADY HAD AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10
INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MODELS WERE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
UPSLOPE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
EXPECTED LOCATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE
ONGOING FEED OF MOISTURE AND TRAINING SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A MAJORITY OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
RUNOFF...INITIALLY IMPACTING SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH RAPID
RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. LATER TODAY AND INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL RESPOND TO THE RAINFALL. FLOODING ON THE
RIVERS IS NOT CERTAIN BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ012>020-
022>024-032>035-043>045-058.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
HYDROLOGY...NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
748 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 06Z/2AM TONIGHT.
THE 00Z GFS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE WERE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS LOW THAN THE NAM. ALL MODEL SHOWED INCREASING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND UPSLOPE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AIDE IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH THE BETTER JET
DYNAMICS REMAINED ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND THE IMPACTS FROM THIS RAIN FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STARTING OUT VERY MILD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO
AROUND 70. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL RANGE FROM 1.6 TO 2.2 TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD BACK RISE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 0315 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW. DESPITE
THE PASSING OF THE FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS UNITED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO-TENN
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS TROUGH COULD
BECOME A CLOSED LOW ON THURSDAY. IF THIS CLOSED LOW DOES TAKE
SHAPE...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. TO PUT A GOOD SPIN ON A DREARY FORECAST...THE BULK OF THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
MAY BE A LITTLE ROUGH AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND
MODERATE DYNAMICS PRODUCE A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS. WITH AN ALREADY
SATURATED PLAYING FIELD...MODERATE RAIN RATES AND A RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING LINE OF STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SOME THUNDER MAY BE HEARD WHILE THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW.
MORNING RAIN AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
COOL NORTHERLY AIR AND RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE
5F-10F BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH PAIRED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PAIRING WILL MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS AT ROUGHLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. ONCE THIS
TAKES PLACE...ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND NOTABLY COOLER AIR ADVANCING INTO AT LEAST THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM
BOTH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH AT
LEAST 15Z/11AM THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR VALUES THROUGH 00Z/8PM.
IFR STRATUS AND MVFR FOG WILL FILL BACK IN AFTER 00Z/8PM TONIGHT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MODELS SUGGEST POOR FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS A LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRACKING FROM AROUND RALEIGH TO
BLACKSBURG SINCE AROUND 8PM. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN LESS THAN THREE HOURS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL. RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS RAIN
WAS FALLING OVER COUNTIES THAT ALREADY HAD AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10
INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MODELS WERE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
UPSLOPE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
EXPECTED LOCATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE
ONGOING FEED OF MOISTURE AND TRAINING SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A MAJORITY OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
RUNOFF...INITIALLY IMPACTING SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH RAPID
RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. LATER TODAY AND INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL RESPOND TO THE RAINFALL. FLOODING ON THE
RIVERS IS NOT CERTAIN BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ012>020-
022>024-032>035-043>045-058.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
HYDROLOGY...NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1006 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO HOLD ON THIS MORNING...THOUGH RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASING THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. LATEST
HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO
FORECAST HIGHS...WHICH ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST
AREA BY AROUND 19Z. CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LINGERING MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE BASE OF A 250 MB UPPER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR
AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THEN TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
A WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS RATHER STRONG
IN A NARROW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LOOK TO REACH NEARLY 1.6 INCHES...SO SOME MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
700 MB RH VALUES DRY FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND ARE VERY DRY BY
TONIGHT. 850 MB RH IS DRY BY NOON BUT 925 MB RH STAYS BETWEEN 60 AND
80 PCT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH BY LATE
MORNING. THEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
ALONG WITH QUIET BUT COOLER CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE COOLER THAN
INLAND DURING THE DAY AND WARMER AT NIGHT. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL
REMAIN STEADY AROUND THE 3-5C RANGE ...A STARK CONTRAST TO TEMPS OF
14C THAT WERE OVERHEAD YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND. EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST
ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR FROST IN THE MKX AREA... EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY IN THE MARQUETTE/ GREEN LAKE COUNTY AREA.
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING EACH AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS AND GUSTS AND ALSO LOW DEWPOINTS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHWEST
OVER WISCONSIN DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND A
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS THAT
UPPER LOWS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND EAST COAST AREAS WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY AND SOME OF MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME AND SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST WI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL.
CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO
MOVE A SYSTEM STRAIGHT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY AND THE GFS
HANGS ONTO THE DRY PATTERN THROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR RAPIDLY SPREADING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER NORTHEAST
WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY CAUSE MVFR CIGS TO LINGER LONGER.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT FOR
BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WAVES WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE STALLING OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL
STORM JOAQUIN...CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS...IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVEL NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST DURING THE
WEEK, POSSIBLY REACHING THE OFFSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO NORTH
CAROLINA BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
3 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED EASTWARD
INTO WRN NY AND NW PA, STRETCHING BACK INTO THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BUT
ITS RIDGE AXIS STILL EXTENDED WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH IS FINALLY LOSING ITS GRIP OVER OUR AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY MOISTENED THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS WERE IN
THE LOW 70S AND SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL BLENDED PWATS WERE AROUND 2
INCHES.
THERE WERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLIER IN THE DAY, ALLOWING
FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE REACHED AND SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THESE
SHOWERS HAVE BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY LIFT NORTHWARD THRU THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. USED THE HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY TO HELP
POPULATE POP GRIDS THRU 00Z AS THE GUIDANCE ACCURATELY PREDICTED
THESE INITIAL SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO OUR
WEST. THE STEADY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD,
CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE
COAST. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS WELL.
IN COLLABORATION WITH WPC/MARFC, FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
LOWERED SLIGHTLY AS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN FROM 12Z GUIDANCE HAD
CONTINUED TO TREND FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. QPF
(INCLUDING THE ADDITIONAL LIGHT QPF TOMORROW) RANGE FROM LESS THAN
AN INCH EAST OF I-95 TO 2 INCHES IN THE POCONOS. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OVERNIGHT OR EVEN A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD.
THE EXTENT OF ANY FLOODING SHOULD BE LOW DUE TO THE ANTECEDENT DRY
CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, BUT IT SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE IN OR JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE
LOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD NYC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING BUT
THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SLOW-MOVING
FRONT OVERHEAD, BUT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT WELL TO OUR NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND. TOOK THIS INTO ACCOUNT
WITH THE HOURLY POPS, WHICH DECREASE AS WE PROGRESS THRU THE DAY
TOMORROW. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST. IF
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, THEN THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA ACCORDING TO THE NAM.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...AN ABNORMALLY WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
FORECAST FOR THE AREA FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES, KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, WITH SEVERAL
VORTICITY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND PERHAPS FROM TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN...TO STREAM
NORTHWARD, PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXACT TIMING OF THESE EPISODES OF
RAIN THIS FAR OUT IS PROBLEMATIC, BUT HOPEFULLY WE`LL BE ABLE TO
FINE- TUNE THIS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. PLEASE SEE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE STRONG SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN NORMAL, AND WILL INCREASE TIDAL ANOMOLIES TO THE POINT
WHERE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
IN TERMS OF WINDS, IF JOAQUIN PASSES CLOSE TO THE COAST, WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE STRONG WINDS FOR COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK OR THE
WEEKEND. IT NEEDS TO BE STATED HERE THAT THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS JOAQUIN OFF THE COAST AS
IT MOVES NORTH. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRACK AND
STATEMENTS REGARDING TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN FOR FUTURE UPDATES.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER
LOW AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE GFS PUSHES THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE
AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWLY TRACKS IT ACROSS OUR AREA THEN TO OUR
NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE DRY AFTER
SUNDAY, WHILE THE WOULD CONTINUE A WET FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY, WE WILL FOLLOW WPC FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WHICH KEEPS A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTN. SHRA
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED NORTH OF PNE/TTN INTO ABE. BEHIND IT, SHRA
ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE SPOTTY UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT RDG, 03Z FOR
THE I-95 TAF SITES. THE SHRA MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A FEW
HOURS MAINLY OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE I-95. REGARDLESS, ALL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON CIGS LOWERING BACK TO MVFR THIS EVE AND
IFR OVERNIGHT.
IFR IN LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES THRU AT LEAST THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND A SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT.
S-SE WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT THIS AFTN BEFORE
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THIS EVE. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD GUST TO 20 KT
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD,
REACHING AT LEAST 25-30 KNOTS AT TIMES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR UPDATES ON TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN.
&&
.MARINE...
E-SE WINDS 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE
4 TO 6 FOOT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS, SO WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING THERE.
WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE DELAWARE BAY, POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALE FORCE. SEAS
WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH AS WELL.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN VERY HIGH AS WELL.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR UPDATES ON TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SPOTTY TIDAL FLOODING
MIGHT OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
THEREAFTER...HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES OF MINOR OR
GREATER COASTAL FLOODING PROBABLY BEGINNING WITH THE THURSDAY MIDDAY
HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND CONTINUING THIS WEEKEND.
CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
SEVERAL OF THESE HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
LOCAL INTERNAL OFFICE ASSESSMENT OFFERS SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES THAN
THAT OF THE 12Z/29 ETSS FOR THURSDAYS MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. DBOFS
THROUGH ITS FORECAST CYCLE (NAM BASED) IS CONSIDERED THE UNLIKELY
NON FLOOD SCENARIO.
THERE IS SPREAD IN TIMING THE LATE WEEK MORE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
NECESSARY TO DEVELOP THE LARGER POSITIVE SURGE DEPARTURES AND THERE
IS ALSO UNCERTAIN TIMING THE STRONGER GALE ONSHORE FLOW.
THAT SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS JUSTIFIES A STILL CAUTIOUS APPROACH TO
ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR MODERATE OR GREATER COASTAL
FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...WE`RE HOLDING OFF ON A 4TH PERIOD AND
BEYOND CFWATCH SINCE THERE IS A LACK OF TIMING CONFIDENCE.
HOWEVER, THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL
OCCUR NEAR THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDES, PROBABLY BEGINNING WITH THE
MIDDAY THURSDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WAVES ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE TODAY, MAINLY FROM A PERSISTENT EAST SOUTHEAST
SWELL. THE WIND SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH
OR SO. THE ROUGH SEAS AND THE EAST SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL MAINTAIN A
HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR TODAY.
THE CONDITION OF THE OCEAN IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ROUGH FOR
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL LIKELY END OUR SURF ZONE FORECAST SEASON ON
WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGH RISK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
TWO SEPARATE RAINFALL EVENTS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR SO. THE
FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WILL FALL TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SECOND
BATCH IS FORECAST TO FALL THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL FROM THE
COMBINED EVENTS COULD BE IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE, ENDING ON MONDAY.
DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL HELP WITH THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
MANY CREEKS, STREAMS AND MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE LOWER THAN WHERE THEY
TYPICALLY ARE THIS TIME OF YEAR. STREAMFLOW, IN GENERAL, APPEARS TO
BE A LITTLE LOWER IN NJ VERSUS ADJACENT AREAS.
THROUGH TOMORROW, THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW, AS IS
FLOODING ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. MAINSTEM FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED. LOW LYING, POOR DRAINAGE, AND URBAN FLOODING WILL BE THE
BIGGEST THREATS IN THE SHORT TERM.
IF THE WEEKEND RAINS COME TO FRUITION, THE THREAT OF POOR DRAINAGE,
FLASH FLOODING, AND EVEN SOME MAINSTEM FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
TWO MAIN MESSAGES TO PASS ALONG...
ONE, THIS WEEKENDS FLOOD POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE THE REGION WILL RECEIVE AT THAT TIME. THE FIRST
BATCH OF RAIN THROUGH TOMORROW WILL PRIME THE REGION, THE SECOND
BATCH COULD CAUSE SOME IMPACTS.
TWO, DO NOT JUST FOCUS ON TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN. TROPICAL AIR AND
HEAVY RAINS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE HERE WHEN JOAQUIN IS VERY FAR
AWAY. IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT JOAQUIN BECOMES A NON-FACTOR FOR US
AND THE MID-LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BECOMES
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR OUR FLOODING RAINS.
.CLIMATE...
KPHL, KILG, KACY AND KABE ALL PROBABLY GOING TO HAVE CULMINATED A
16 CONSECUTIVE DAY STRETCH OF NO MEASURABLE RAIN FROM THE 13TH
THROUGH TODAY THE 28TH. IT SHOULD MEASURE BY 1 AM WEDNESDAY (29TH
CLIMATE) BUT EVEN THEN, THERE IS A CHANCE MEASURABLE WILL NOT
REACH KACY BEFORE 1 AM WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS IS A LONG SPELL OF
DRY WEATHER, IT IS FAR FROM A RECORD.
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER WILL GO INTO THE BOOKS AS ONE OF THE
WARMEST ON RECORD.
KPHL IS NOW PROJECTING 74.3... OR 2ND WARMEST. NORMAL IS 69.1
DEPARTURE PLUS 5.2. POR BACK TO 1874
1881 75.4
2015 74.3
1931 74.1
1930 74.1
KABE IS NOW PROJECTING 69.3......STILL 4TH WARMEST. NORMAL IS
63.9 DEPARTURE PLUS 5.4 POR BACK TO 1922
1961 70.8
1980 70.3
1931 69.4
2015 69.3
2005 68.7
KILG IS NOW PROJECTING 72.3...OR TIED FOR 3RD WARMEST. NORMAL
67.8 DEPARTURE PLUS 4.5 POR BACK TO 1917. THERE WAS A MISSING
PERIOD BETWEEN 1897-1916
1895 72.9
1961 72.5
1930 72.3
2015 72.3
1970 72.1
1931 72.1
KACY PROJECTING 71.3 TIED FOR 7TH WARMEST. NORMAL 67.2 DEPARTURE
PLUS 3.9 POR BACK TO 1874
1961 73.3
1881 72.8
1931 72.3
1930 72.3
1921 71.7
1933 71.5
2015 71.3
2010 71.0
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450-451.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...KLEIN/MIKETTA
MARINE...KLEIN/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
301 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
For the short term, main concerns focused on a front moving through
the region this evening. Precipitation in the southeast is slowly
eroding, as is the post frontal showers from this morning northwest
of the Illinois River Valley. A narrow line of convection is firing
on the leading edge of the front, but so far, are very small in
coverage area. Drier air at the sfc expected to advect in as the
evening progresses. Models are not doing well with handling the llvl
moisture, with most being a little too progressive with the cloud
cover, initializing with higher ceilings. Have kept the cloud cover
in place for most of Central Illinois until after 00z...and after
06z for the southern half of the area. Once the skies clear out,
the temps should radiate out quite well, with the northeast dropping
into the 40s, and the southeast keeping the cloud cover and staying
warmer. The drier air moving in should drop the dewpoints, but
should the timing be off between the frontal passage/drying out in
the boundary layer/clearing of the skies, could end up seeing some
patchy fog invof the boundary towards morning, but not enough
confidence to warrant a mention in the forecast at this point.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
A large high pressure system will build into Canada north of the
Great Lakes for midweek into the weekend bringing persistent cool
temperatures and north to northeasterly breezes. The high will push
much drier Canadian air into central IL bringing mostly clear skies
at least until Saturday...along with dewpoints in the 40s and even
some 30s. Highs will range from the upper 60s to low 70s Wednesday
and continue to cool into the mid 60s for Friday through Sunday.
Lows will be generally in the 40s Wednesday night through the next
week.
A deep trough/surface low system is expected to form along the
Atlantic coast over the weekend...potentially merging with tropical
storm Joaquin. Recent model runs are hinting at a trough axis
wrapping around the low and perhaps bringing some cloud cover as far
west as central IL Sunday...and a slight chance of precipitation
about as far west as the Indiana border. Keeping the forecast dry
for central IL at this point. This feature should be short-lived as
high pressure builds into the central U.S. ahead of low pressure
moving through the west early next week...bringing a dry and
subsident northwesterly flow pattern into Illinois. This will also
bring a warming trend for the early part of next week...with most
high temperatures returning back into the low 70s by Tuesday. The
western low pressure feature could bring a chance for precipitation
into central IL midweek next week...although models remain highly
inconsistent on the track and other details of the system at this
point. For now...now mentionable chances of precipitation through
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
Most of ILX terminals between two areas of rain, with a front
moving through the area accompanied by MVFR/IFR cigs and gusty
northeasterly winds. VCSH through the afternoon, with the best
chances for precip lagging behind the boundary so far, and in air
that is mixing with some drier air and eroding many of the showers
this morning. Visibility holding with low cigs at least through
the day. Most models are already off with regards to cigs and
layer moisture in the llvls. HRRR handling the current conditions
a little better and have followed the timing of bringing the cigs
up later this evening. Once the front clears out, the skies should
clear up as well towards morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1238 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
A cold front is lagging in northwestern Illinois and making its
way through the region today. Two distinct areas of precipitation
this morning, one associated with an upper level disturbance, with
rain and scattered thunder through the morning south of the
interstate 72/74 corridor from SPI to DNV. This rain has remained
fairly consistent through the morning hours and should stay in
place for the afternoon. The second round of precip out there is behind
the cold front and will also be making its way across ILX.
Afternoon brings the lightning threat up as the convective element
increases with the diurnal heat. Only some minor updates to the
hourly pops. Otherwise, the forecast is doing well.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
Two areas of rain seen on the radar mosaic at 300 am, one over
southern Illinois associated with an upper level wave seen on the
water vapor loop over far southeast Missouri with the second band
of showers and isolated thunder over the northern half of Iowa.
The Iowa precip was occurring west and northwest of the cold front
which as of 300 am was located over the northwest tip of Illinois
southwest through east central Iowa. This front will push across our
area this morning switching our winds into the north and northeast
bringing in much cooler weather later today and tonight. The better
chances for rain will be across the southeast half of our forecast
area today associated with the southeast Missouri wave, while models
continue to suggest the rain associated with the area of
frontogenetical forcing to our northwest will gradually weaken as it
spreads southeast today.
Forecast soundings showing the better elevated instability will be
over the central and especially southeast Illinois, but even in
these locations not seeing much in the way of Capes (Most Unstable)
above 750 J/KG, so will continue to hold onto isolated/slight chance
of thunder central and southeast sections for today. Although the
front is on target to pass across the northwest this morning and our
southeast counties this afternoon, the real cool down doesn`t occur
for several hours behind the boundary, so the 00z guidance has
caught on and has bumped temps up a few degrees from the last model
run. Looks like upper 60s far northwest to the upper 70s in the far
west and south this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
A chance of showers will linger well behind the cold front over
southeast IL this evening especially early this evening and have
increase pops then. Dry conditions then expected overnight with some
clearing of clouds over northern CWA, while southeast IL remains in
the clouds thru the night. Lows tonight range from upper 40s nw of
the IL river to the mid to upper 50s in southeast IL.
Large high pressure over the upper Midwest/northern Plains to
settles into the western Great Lakes region Wed and decrease clouds
over southeast IL. Breezy nne winds to bring cooler and drier air
into the region with highs Wed in the upper 60s northern CWA and
lower 70s southern CWA. Cool lows Wed night in the mid 40s central
IL and upper 40s in southeast IL. Upper level trof deepens into the
TN river valley Thu with upper level ridging over the Rockies.
Surface high pressure ridge axis stays to our nw keeping IL in a
cool/breezy nne flow and similar weather on Thu. Highs Thu in the
mid to upper 60s and lows Thu night in the low to mid 40s and NNE
winds become lighter during the night.
00Z forecast models show cutoff low to develop over southeast states
late this week near GA on Friday and near the Carolinas and mid
Atlantic states this weekend. Large Canadian high pressure northeast
of the Great Lakes late this week to keep IL in a cool and dry ne
flow. Highs in the 60s with lows in the low to mid 40s continues
through early next week along with dry weather which will make for
favorable harvest conditions. 00Z GEM/ECMWF/GFS all keep IL dry
from Wed through Sunday evening. 00Z Ecmwf/GFS models continue
dry weather over IL Monday and Tuesday of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
Most of ILX terminals between two areas of rain, with a front
moving through the area accompanied by MVFR/IFR cigs and gusty
northeasterly winds. VCSH through the afternoon, with the best
chances for precip lagging behind the boundary so far, and in air
that is mixing with some drier air and eroding many of the showers
this morning. Visibility holding with low cigs at least through
the day. Most models are already off with regards to cigs and
layer moisture in the llvls. HRRR handling the current conditions
a little better and have followed the timing of bringing the cigs
up later this evening. Once the front clears out, the skies should
clear up as well towards morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF RAIN THAT IS DIMINISHING IN
STRENGTH ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING NE OF THE AREA AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TRANSITIONING TO THE EAST OF
US...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. NOW FORECAST ATTENTION TURNS TO THE TEMPS FOR TODAY. WITH THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND THE FROPA IT APPEARS THAT CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE CWA HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...SLIGHT WARMING IN THE NW SHOULD OCCUR WHEN THE CLOUDS
BREAK FREE. HAVE CONTINUED TO UPDATE THE POPS AND WX GRIDS AS THE
RAIN DIMINISHES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN OF GREAT VALUE TODAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA
AS OF 2 AM...WITH A BAND OF POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW
REMAINING RUMBLES OF THUNDER FOUND ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT IS LIKELY GOING TO RESULT IN A DRY NIGHT
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND A BENEFICIAL RAIN OF
0.25 TO .60 IN THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN CENTRAL IOWA ALONG THE
FRONT...AND THIS WILL HAVE SOME INTERESTING IMPLICATIONS THIS
MORNING. WHILE THE PROCESS OF POST FRONTAL FGEN FORCED RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE...THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW IN CENTRAL IOWA
HAS HELD OFF ANY TRUE CAA OVER NORTHEAST IOWA THUS FAR...MAKING FOR
A MILD RAIN EVENT. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR TODAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SPREAD EAST OF THE
CWA...AND THE RAIN THAT OCCURS AFTER 6 AM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND...AND RATHER RAW CONDITIONS. IN OTHER
WORDS...IT WONT BE PLEASANT. IT ALSO WONT LAST VERY LONG. THE
MOISTURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER 15Z FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH...ENDING MEASURABLE RAINS AT THAT TIME. WE MAY CONTINUE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE AFTER THAT TIME...BUT THE
DRY AIR WILL WIN THE WAR BY AROUND NOON. WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...HIGHS SHOULD
CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREA WIDE. IN FACT...A VERY PLEASANT
AFTERNOON IS LIKELY CONTRASTING WHAT COULD BE A UNPLEASANT MORNING
COMMUTE.
TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...AND
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR...A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS
FORECAST. WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 40S IS LIKELY...WITH VALLEY
LOCATIONS DIPPING TO THE UPPER 30S. I HAVE OUTLINED IN THE GRIDS THE
WAPSIPINICON WITH UPPER 30S AS THAT SEEMS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING.
ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
OVERVIEW...SPLIT UPPER JET PATTERN FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH AND REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND EAST COAST.
POSITIONING OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA.
AVERAGE FORECAST FOR EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS IS FOR SEASONAL
HIGHS IN THE 60S...LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DRY CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EASTERN
CANADA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS CANADA
RESULTING IN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS LOCALLY.
850MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW
WEEKS...AVERAGING BETWEEN 3-6 C...1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST
BETWEEN 552-558 DAM. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO SIGNAL FOR PRECIP
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
MVFR CONDITIONS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM NW TO SE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. ENE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. AFTER
THIS...WINDS WILL STAY AOA 10 KTS TONIGHT FROM ENE. CLEAR SKIES
AND NO VSBY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z WED.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF RAIN THAT IS DIMINISHING IN
STRENGTH ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING NE OF THE AREA AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TRANSITIONING TO THE EAST OF
US...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. NOW FORECAST ATTENTION TURNS TO THE TEMPS FOR TODAY. WITH THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND THE FROPA IT APPEARS THAT CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE CWA HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...SLIGHT WARMING IN THE NW SHOULD OCCUR WHEN THE CLOUDS
BREAK FREE. HAVE CONTINUED TO UPDATE THE POPS AND WX GRIDS AS THE
RAIN DIMINISHES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN OF GREAT VALUE TODAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA
AS OF 2 AM...WITH A BAND OF POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW
REMAINING RUMBLES OF THUNDER FOUND ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT IS LIKELY GOING TO RESULT IN A DRY NIGHT
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND A BENEFICIAL RAIN OF
0.25 TO .60 IN THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN CENTRAL IOWA ALONG THE
FRONT...AND THIS WILL HAVE SOME INTERESTING IMPLICATIONS THIS
MORNING. WHILE THE PROCESS OF POST FRONTAL FGEN FORCED RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE...THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW IN CENTRAL IOWA
HAS HELD OFF ANY TRUE CAA OVER NORTHEAST IOWA THUS FAR...MAKING FOR
A MILD RAIN EVENT. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR TODAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SPREAD EAST OF THE
CWA...AND THE RAIN THAT OCCURS AFTER 6 AM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND...AND RATHER RAW CONDITIONS. IN OTHER
WORDS...IT WONT BE PLEASANT. IT ALSO WONT LAST VERY LONG. THE
MOISTURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER 15Z FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH...ENDING MEASURABLE RAINS AT THAT TIME. WE MAY CONTINUE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE AFTER THAT TIME...BUT THE
DRY AIR WILL WIN THE WAR BY AROUND NOON. WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...HIGHS SHOULD
CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREA WIDE. IN FACT...A VERY PLEASANT
AFTERNOON IS LIKELY CONTRASTING WHAT COULD BE A UNPLEASANT MORNING
COMMUTE.
TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...AND
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR...A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS
FORECAST. WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 40S IS LIKELY...WITH VALLEY
LOCATIONS DIPPING TO THE UPPER 30S. I HAVE OUTLINED IN THE GRIDS THE
WAPSIPINICON WITH UPPER 30S AS THAT SEEMS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING.
ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
OVERVIEW...SPLIT UPPER JET PATTERN FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH AND REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND EAST COAST.
POSITIONING OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA.
AVERAGE FORECAST FOR EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS IS FOR SEASONAL
HIGHS IN THE 60S...LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DRY CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EASTERN
CANADA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS CANADA
RESULTING IN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS LOCALLY.
850MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW
WEEKS...AVERAGING BETWEEN 3-6 C...1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST
BETWEEN 552-558 DAM. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO SIGNAL FOR PRECIP
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS IN
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. A BAND OF
MODERATE RAIN IS LOCATED OVER IOWA INTO WISCONSIN AS OF 12Z...AND
WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AS IT WEAKENS. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS...AND VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3 AND 6 MILES WILL BE
LIKELY IN THIS RAIN...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 25
KTS. BY 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY AND GUSTY THROUGH 00Z...BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 6
KTS OVERNIGHT.
ERVIN
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
206 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
Fairly high confidence in the short term.
As usual patchy fog tonight is very difficult especially with a
north wind expected to stay up all night. The MOS data suggests at
least some patchy fog across the area with isolated areas of dense
fog mainly in Cape Girardeau. This is not unusual for the models
to advertise this fog after a rain event but it is not typical
with a north wind and clouds all night. This will be one parameter
we will have to monitor closely. The HRRR indicates an upper low
was meandering over confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers
most of the morning then it slowly lifts it toward EVV this aftn.
Current radar trends would support this scenario. Could see more
rain but should remain light and scattered at best. The upper
level wave will bisect the heartland around midnight and pass east
early Wednesday morning. Cleared the mention of rain in the wake
of this trough. After today cooler and drier air will filter into
the region with temperatures close to 10 degrees below normal for
highs and lows.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
At the start of the extended period, we will dealing with what
happens with an upper level low, which develops over the CWA
Wednesday night into Thursday. Medium range models suggest that by
12Z Friday, the upper low should be in Alabama, so our area should
remain rain free. We will likely be dealing with some cloudiness
(especially east) however and cool temperatures.
As we head into the weekend, this feature eventually moves east and
then northeast up the eastern seaboard, although models are in
disagreement on how fast and in what direction it will head. This
will mean continued cool temperatures and some cloudy conditions
from time to time until this system moves far enough east to not
impact our area. This will probably happen sometime late in the
weekend.
By early next week, we should see upper heights rising which will
mean an uptick in tempeatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
Isolated thunder and rain continue to rotate around the area
keeping IFR/MVFR conditions in place. Thunder will remain possible
until this evening. Variable winds will turn northerly this aftn
at all sites. Fog will be an issue at all sites with IFR fog
possible at KCGI. Rain chances dwindle overnight as drier air
filters into the region.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KH
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...KH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
544 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO
BRING HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS DOMINATE
THE STATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
540 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BACK A FEW
HRS USING THE LATEST MRMS AND BASE RADAR SHOWING STEADIER RAIN
JUST MOVING INTO WNW AREAS. HRRR SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THINGS
QUITE WELL PER 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING BEST CONVERGENCE IN
THE WNW AREAS.
HEAVY RAIN SHIELD IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS VERMONT ON RADAR
AS SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE STATE OF MAINE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALL GUIDANCE CAME INTO AGREEMENT WITH
ROBUST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. TRENDED MAXIMUM QPF AXIS FURTHER INLAND COMPARED TO
LAST FORECAST PACKAGE...AS ALL GUIDANCE HAS FRONT STALLING OUT
ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE NOW. NAM12 IS THE MOST AGREESIVE
WITH UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMUM ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD WITH A GENERAL
3-5" AND SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE. EVEN
THOUGH THINGS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY DRY OVER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS...FELT THE AMOUNTS IN THEMSELVE WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH FOR
SMALL STREAM AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
TOMORROWS SURFACE LOW TRACK WITH HEAVY RAIN OVERSPREADING THE
COAST AND DOWNEAST TOMORROW MORNING. GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT NOW...SO CONFIDENCE HAS FINALLY INCREASED ON THE OVERALL
SOLUTION. BIGGEST IMPACT AND THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WITH POSSIBLE BANDING STUCTURE DEVELOPMENT THAT
WILL LEAD TO LOCALZIED FLOODING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE FRIDAY CAUSING RAIN TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. HAVE USED A
50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF TO GENERATE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
POP.. QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM REMAINS A CHALLENGING FORECAST, WITH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY LINGERING AROUND THE FUTURE OF TS JOAQUIN. THE
FORECAST FOR JOAQUIN IS NO MORE CERTAIN TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, WITH EVERY MODEL SEEMINGLY HAVING A DIFFERENT SOLUTION
BEYOND 48-72 HRS. THE DISCREPANCIES SEEM TO BE BASED ON THEIR
DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS
AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC, TYPICAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS SORT OF A PATTERN. CURRENT SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM HOOKING INTO
THE CAROLINAS OR MID- ATLANTIC TO GOING OFF TO NOVA SCOTIA OR EVEN
EAST OF THERE.
WHAT DOES SEEM SOMEWHAT CERTAIN IS THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM, AND MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT CREEPING BACK NORTH A BIT SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW LKLY
POPS OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO NUDGE BACK NORTH
ONSHORE. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD, HOWEVER, POPS WERE GENERALLY
KEPT AT CHC LEVELS, SINCE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-TERM PATTERN
EVOLUTION AND THE FATE OF TS JOAQUIN SEEM TO PRECLUDE ANY
DEFINITIVE FORECAST FOR DRIER OR WETTER WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: AVIATION OPERATIONS WILL BE SERVERLY IMPACTING OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOW VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... HOWEVER
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE KBGR AND KBHB FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA IN EFFECT BEGINNING TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
PEAK TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS COASTAL LOW PUSHES UP THE COAST. STRONG
BAND OF SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PEAK TOMORROW AFTERNOON...GALE
WARING ISSUED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT.
SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE GFS WHICH APPEARS TO
HAVE BEST HANDLE ON LOW PRESSURE THROUGH TO THE EAST OF WATERS.
FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND (6-8 FEET/7-8 SECONDS) WAVE ON WEST SIDE OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LONGER PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY
(SWELL 4-5 FEET/9-10 SECONDS). EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
UNTIL 1200Z THURSDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SCA. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND NEW GALE MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR MEZ004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/DUMONT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUMONT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/DUMONT/MIGNONE
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1253 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG
SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SRN MANITOBA. ACCOMPANYING 12HR HGT
FALLS UP TO 70M ARE DEEPENING TROF A BIT CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY
INTO THE UPR LKS. ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
THRU UPR MI...ALLOWING AN INFLUX OF MUCH COOLER AIR WITH 00Z H85
TEMPS AS LO AS -5C AT THE PAS MANITOBA AND -2C AT YPL. DESPITE THE
CHILL OF THIS INCOMING AIRMASS RELATIVE TO THE WARM LK WATERS /AS
HI AS 15C OVER WRN LK SUP/...DRYNESS OF THE LLVL AIRMASS DEPICTED ON
THE UPSTREAM RAOBS AND LARGER SCALE ACYC NW FLOW TO THE E OF SFC HI
PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS HAVE PREVENTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LK
CLDS. PWATS AT THE PAS AND YPL WERE AROUND 0.25 INCH. UNDER THE
SHARP PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF THE HI...NW WINDS HAVE GUSTED UP TO
30 KTS AT SOME OF THE HIER PLATFORMS ON LK SUP. THERE ARE SOME HI
CLDS STREAKING ACRS THE UPR LKS ON THE NRN FLANK OF A DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST...BUT PCPN/THICKER CLDS ARE CLOSER
TO DEEP MSTR WELL TO THE S.
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON TEMPS TNGT AND NEED
FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
TODAY...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHRTWV THRU NW ONTARIO AND ATTENDANT
COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG...LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE WL
DOMINATE AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES CENTER TO SHIFT NEAR WRN LK SUP BY
00Z THIS EVNG. GUSTY NW WINDS...REACHING NEAR 30 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER
THE E HALF CLOSE TO LK SUP UNDER STRONG CAA THIS MRNG WL ADVECT THE
DRIER LLVL AIR INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME SCT CU COULD DVLP WITH
ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS AND ACYC
FLOW WL BRING ABOUT A MOSUNNY DAY. DESPITE THIS SUNSHINE...H85 TEMPS
NO HIER THAN 2C WL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES. THE
STRONG NW WINDS OVER LK SUP WL BRING HIER WAVES UP TO 5 FT AND A HI
SWIM RISK ALONG THE BEACHES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES.
TNGT...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS IS FCST TO STRETCH FM NEAR JAMES BAY
ACRS WRN UPR MI AND INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. UNDER LGT WINDS
AND MOCLR SKIES WITH PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25 INCH...EXPECT MIN TEMPS
OVER THE WRN CWA TO PLUMMET BLO 32 AT MANY PLACES OVER THE INTEIOR W
HALF. ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR E HALF MAY SEE THE
MECURY TUMBLE BLO 32 AS WELL...A BIT TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT/HIER H925
WINDS UP TO 15-20KT WL LIMIT THE AREA OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE LK SHORES...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP E OF THE
KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI S OF ESCANABA...SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH
MIN TEMPS HOLDING AOA 40. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...OPTED TO MAINTAIN FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR W
HALF. INCLUDED DICKINSON COUNTY IN THIS LATEST VERSION AS WINDS
THERE WL BE SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT. ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA TO INDICATE THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF FROST AND POSSIBLY SOME
FREEZING TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES GIVES WAY
TO RISING HEIGHTS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WILL BUILD TO OVER 1042MB BY 12Z FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. DUE TO
THE SFC RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER. AFTER
WIDESPREAD FROST EARLY ON...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWEST AND NCNTRL CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NAM/GFS/GEM- REGIONAL
SHOWING POCKET OF HIGHER H85 RH AND H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C WHILE WATER
TEMPS ARE 13-15C. OVERALL DRYNESS OF AIRMASS AND LACK OF CYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS. EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS BLO H85 RESULT IN MOST CLOUDS OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR NCNTRL...
SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS OF MAIN MODELS. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY STAY IN
THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
CHILLY NIGHT WITH FROST LIKELY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEADY EAST WINDS ABOVE 10 KTS H95-H85 BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PWATS LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES...NEAR SFC LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE AND MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE MORE IN THE UPR 30S TO AROUND
40 DEGREES. COOL AIRMASS PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER
DAY IN THE 50S...BUT THIS TIME WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. THOUGH SFC
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AIRMASS
CHANGES LITTLE AND IN FACT...PWATS ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
CHECKING IN LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. LOWERED MINS TOWARD COOLER MEX
GUIDANCE AND ADDED MENTION OF FROST. COOLEST READINGS IN LOW 30S WILL
BE FOR THE INTERIOR.
BY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW TROUGH OR AT LEAST A PORTION OF IT
RETROGRADING WEST BETWEEN UPPER RIDGES OVER MANITOBA/NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS FM MODELS
THAT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE THIS WEEK WILL MOVE
FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND TO BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST EASTERN
PART OF CWA. TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN COULD BE FURTHER COMPLICATED
BY TROPICAL SYSTEM JOAQUIN LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OR ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER 1040MB CENTERED OVER QUEBEC
WILL KEEP RIDGE AND DRY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
AT LEAST FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. AGREEMENT DECREASES BY LATER
WEEKEND DUE TO HOW FAR WEST MODELS BRING SFC LOW TIED INTO THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING NORTH FM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. 00Z RUNS VARY WILDLY FM
STRONGER SFC LOW AS FAR WEST AS GEORGIAN BAY PER THE GFS AND MORE
OVER THE EAST COAST FM THE GEM-NH AND ECMWF. THOUGH GFS SOLUTION IS
NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN IT HAS SHOWED IT OCCASIONALLY IN
THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT GEM-NH SHOWED A DAY AGO.
GIVEN THE VOLITILITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL
STAY WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS WHICH SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAINLY OVER THE EAST CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY COOL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES
DURING THE DAYTIME AND MID 30S TO MID 40S DURING THE NIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL 3 TERMINALS THIS FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT E OF HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT NNW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT OVER THE
WEST HALF AS THE HI DRIFTS NEARLY OVERHEAD...BUT N VEERING NE WINDS
UP TO 20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E UNDER TIGHTER GRADIENT
FARTHER FROM THE HI PRES RIDGE AXIS. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS
SLOWLY ENE AND INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A STEADY 15-25KT
ENE WIND WILL PERSIST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-003-005>007-012>014-085.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
139 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SHOWERS
THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARD STEADY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WILL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF ESSEX
COUNTY NEW YORK AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE REGION DRIES OUT BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SHOWERS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY...AND THEN TREND COOLER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EDT TUESDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE FIRST BAND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOWERS IS SLOWING MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SUPPORTING THE UPGRADE TO MENTION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL SO I DID GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THAT. THE HRRR CAPTURES THE
LOCATION OF THE FIRST PRECIP SHIELD QUITE WELL AND SO I BLENDED
THE HRRR INTO THE FORECAST AND OTHERWISE LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALONE. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS
AND THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL LATE INTO THE EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...CURRENT SYNOPTIC
SETUP FEATURES A CLOSED MID- UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A DEVELOPING LARGE- SCALE CONFLUENT
DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS CONFLUENCE IS
OCCURRING ON WRN PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME AROUND THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GFS AND NAM
SHOW STRENGTHENING 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES FROM S-CENTRAL NY NEWD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
VERMONT. WITHIN THIS AXIS...PW VALUES ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75"
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 11-12 KFT. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES
A CLOUDY DAY WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS...WITH
RAINFALL BECOMING MORE STEADY...WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER WHILE
DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE SRN TIER OF NY NEWD INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BECOME
FOCUSED FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST, TO
INCLUDE ESSEX COUNTY NY. THERE IS ALSO INDICATIONS IN THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (CAPE
VALUES 100-300 J/KG) WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN HALF OF VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...IN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC REGIME. NOT
EXPECTING LIGHTNING...BUT COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS TO THE RAINFALL WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES THIS AFTN/EVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL VERMONT. THAT SAID...SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY TOWARD 21-00Z THIS EVENING...AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
SEPARATE FOCUS AND BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES PER BTV-4KM AND 12KM WRF RUNS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL AMTS FOR THE 12-HR PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 0.40" ACROSS FAR NRN
NY...TO 0.6-0.7" ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S- CENTRAL VT...WITH AROUND 0.50" OR SO IN THE BTV AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING WARM BY LATE SEPTEMBER STANDARDS.
CURRENTLY 70F AT BTV AT 08Z! DEEP-LAYER S TO SW FLOW AND CLOUD
COVER IS YIELDING EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 65-70F RANGE IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE VALLEY TEMPS CLIMB EARLY INTO THE LOWER
70S...AND THEN GENERALLY LEVEL OFF OR FALL SLIGHTLY WITH THICKER
CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING STEADY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. ANTECEDENT
SOILS ARE VERY DRY...SO WON/T SEE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS UNTIL WE GET
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED 06Z WED
THROUGH 06Z THU FOR ESSEX COUNTY NY AND CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT
ZONES. WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO FOCUS UVV AND CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PER 00Z GFS AND
00Z NAM...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. ALSO LOOKING
AT PW VALUES 1.7-1.8" ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS/WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 12 KFT FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES. SOME CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY ALSO PRESENT THROUGH
TONIGHT (CAPE 100-300 J/KG)...THOUGH IT WANES ON WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH DEVELOPING NORTH
WINDS. ALL IN ALL...INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR POTENTIAL 2-3"
RAINFALL...WITH HIGHEST AMTS LIKELY RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES.
SHOULD SEE A FEW SPOTS WITH AMOUNTS 3+" BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT...THEN A
BURST OF HIGHER RAINFALL RATES WITH WAVE LOW MOVING NEWD ALONG THE
FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT 12-18Z WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL RATES
PROGRESSIVELY LIGHTER TO THE NORTH AND WEST...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKING AT 80-100 POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND ALL BUT ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY.
SHOULD SEE RAINFALL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING POPS AND DEEPER LAYER NORTH WINDS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH
AND SUBSIDENCE MAY YIELD PARTIAL CLEARING - ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN AREAS SEEING CLEARING...SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN
BE EXPECTED. BRIEF DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT COULD SEE ABUNDANT MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLS JUST EAST OF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MERIDIONAL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO/TN VALLEYS RESULTS IN SHARPENING SLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES...WITH GENERALLY SMALL
DIURNAL RANGES AND OVERALL SLOW DOWNWARD TREND ON TEMPERATURES WITH
SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON N-NW WINDS.
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S....FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS NEAR 60F ON WEDNESDAY AND MID-UPR 50S FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A CLOSED
MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH EAST OF JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER CLOSED
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL
BE REFLECTED IN A LOW AROUND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSW TO THE SOUTHERN LOW
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT AS
THE SOUTHERN MID LEVEL LOW TRAVERSES NORTHWARD, THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WESTWARD, BRINGING RAIN THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM SE TO NW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MID LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AND THE NORTHERN MID LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTH AND EAST OUT OF
THE REGION.
MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS MID LEVEL LOW AND
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN WHICH COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS MORE OR LESS ABSORBS
JOAQUIN INTO THE MID-UPPER FLOW AND BRINGS THAT ENERGY AND MOISTURE
TO THE NORTHEAST USA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO
BRING STRONG SOUTHEAST - EAST WINDS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS ON WESTERN SLOPES AND VALLEYS.
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, KEEPS JOAQUIN ON ITS OWN AND OUT TO SEA,
WHILE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVELS UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...DELAYING ONSET OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY 6-12
HOURS FROM THE GFS. FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH.
OVERALL, NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. HAVE
GONE WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURE-WISE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERED GREATLY WITH SATURDAY 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C ON
THE GFS AND 4C-8C ON THE ECMWF. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME MAXES AND NEAR NORMAL MINS CONSIDERING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. THE RAIN
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK EASTWARD TO
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTH
AND NORTHEAST AFTER 03Z.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES
EXPECTED IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS WITH FRONTAL ZONE
AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE VERMONT TAF LOCATIONS.
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DRY AND VFR WITH
BRIEF WINDOW OF HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE ALLOWED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS 15-20 KTS THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY LESSENING TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES
OF 2-3 FEET SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY AFTERNOON...BUT VISIBILITY
WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE FREQUENT
SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY STEADY RAINFALL BY LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
VTZ007>012-018-019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
NYZ034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM
MARINE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1232 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SHOWERS
THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARD STEADY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WILL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF ESSEX
COUNTY NEW YORK AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE REGION DRIES OUT BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SHOWERS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY...AND THEN TREND COOLER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1227 PM EDT TUESDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING SOME
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE FIRST BAND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOWERS IS SLOWING MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK.
UPSTREAM OBS ARE SUPPORTING THE UPGRADE TO MENTION OF MODERATE
RAINFALL SO I DID GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THAT. THE HRRR CAPTURES THE
LOCATION OF THE FIRST PRECIP SHIELD QUITE WELL AND SO I BLENDED
THE HRRR INTO THE FORECAST AND OTHERWISE LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST
ALONE. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS
AND THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL LATE INTO THE EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...CURRENT SYNOPTIC
SETUP FEATURES A CLOSED MID- UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A DEVELOPING LARGE- SCALE CONFLUENT
DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS CONFLUENCE IS
OCCURRING ON WRN PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME AROUND THE
DEEP LAYER RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GFS AND NAM
SHOW STRENGTHENING 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES FROM S-CENTRAL NY NEWD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
VERMONT. WITHIN THIS AXIS...PW VALUES ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75"
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 11-12 KFT. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES
A CLOUDY DAY WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS...WITH
RAINFALL BECOMING MORE STEADY...WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER WHILE
DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE SRN TIER OF NY NEWD INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BECOME
FOCUSED FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST, TO
INCLUDE ESSEX COUNTY NY. THERE IS ALSO INDICATIONS IN THE 00Z NAM
AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (CAPE
VALUES 100-300 J/KG) WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN HALF OF VERMONT THIS
AFTERNOON...IN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC REGIME. NOT
EXPECTING LIGHTNING...BUT COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS TO THE RAINFALL WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES THIS AFTN/EVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL VERMONT. THAT SAID...SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY TOWARD 21-00Z THIS EVENING...AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
SEPARATE FOCUS AND BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES PER BTV-4KM AND 12KM WRF RUNS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL AMTS FOR THE 12-HR PERIOD
ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 0.40" ACROSS FAR NRN
NY...TO 0.6-0.7" ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
S- CENTRAL VT...WITH AROUND 0.50" OR SO IN THE BTV AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING WARM BY LATE SEPTEMBER STANDARDS.
CURRENTLY 70F AT BTV AT 08Z! DEEP-LAYER S TO SW FLOW AND CLOUD
COVER IS YIELDING EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 65-70F RANGE IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE VALLEY TEMPS CLIMB EARLY INTO THE LOWER
70S...AND THEN GENERALLY LEVEL OFF OR FALL SLIGHTLY WITH THICKER
CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING STEADY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. ANTECEDENT
SOILS ARE VERY DRY...SO WON/T SEE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS UNTIL WE GET
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED 06Z WED
THROUGH 06Z THU FOR ESSEX COUNTY NY AND CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT
ZONES. WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO FOCUS UVV AND CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PER 00Z GFS AND
00Z NAM...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. ALSO LOOKING
AT PW VALUES 1.7-1.8" ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WITH FREEZING
LEVELS/WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 12 KFT FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES. SOME CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY ALSO PRESENT THROUGH
TONIGHT (CAPE 100-300 J/KG)...THOUGH IT WANES ON WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH DEVELOPING NORTH
WINDS. ALL IN ALL...INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR POTENTIAL 2-3"
RAINFALL...WITH HIGHEST AMTS LIKELY RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES.
SHOULD SEE A FEW SPOTS WITH AMOUNTS 3+" BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT...THEN A
BURST OF HIGHER RAINFALL RATES WITH WAVE LOW MOVING NEWD ALONG THE
FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT 12-18Z WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL RATES
PROGRESSIVELY LIGHTER TO THE NORTH AND WEST...BUT GENERALLY
LOOKING AT 80-100 POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND ALL BUT ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY.
SHOULD SEE RAINFALL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING POPS AND DEEPER LAYER NORTH WINDS
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH
AND SUBSIDENCE MAY YIELD PARTIAL CLEARING - ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN AREAS SEEING CLEARING...SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN
BE EXPECTED. BRIEF DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT COULD SEE ABUNDANT MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLS JUST EAST OF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MERIDIONAL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO/TN VALLEYS RESULTS IN SHARPENING SLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES...WITH GENERALLY SMALL
DIURNAL RANGES AND OVERALL SLOW DOWNWARD TREND ON TEMPERATURES WITH
SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON N-NW WINDS.
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S....FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS NEAR 60F ON WEDNESDAY AND MID-UPR 50S FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A CLOSED
MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH EAST OF JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER CLOSED
MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL
BE REFLECTED IN A LOW AROUND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSW TO THE SOUTHERN LOW
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT AS
THE SOUTHERN MID LEVEL LOW TRAVERSES NORTHWARD, THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WESTWARD, BRINGING RAIN THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM SE TO NW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MID LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AND THE NORTHERN MID LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTH AND EAST OUT OF
THE REGION.
MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS MID LEVEL LOW AND
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN WHICH COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS MORE OR LESS ABSORBS
JOAQUIN INTO THE MID-UPPER FLOW AND BRINGS THAT ENERGY AND MOISTURE
TO THE NORTHEAST USA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO
BRING STRONG SOUTHEAST - EAST WINDS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS ON WESTERN SLOPES AND VALLEYS.
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, KEEPS JOANQUIN ON ITS OWN AND OUT TO SEA,
WHILE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVELS UP THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...DELAYING ONSET OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY 6-12
HOURS FROM THE GFS. FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH.
OVERALL, NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. HAVE
GONE WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURE-WISE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERED GREATLY WITH SATURDAY 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C ON
THE GFS AND 4C-8C ON THE ECMWF. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF BELOW NORMAL
DAYTIME MAXES AND NEAR NORMAL MINS CONSIDERING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR TO VFR
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. KMSS AND KSLK
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MVFR-IFR CIGS WITH LOWERING VSBYS
WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. MEANWHILE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS...WITH KRUT DETERIORATING FIRST
AS STEADIER RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE SW TO NE WITH MVFR CIGS.
AS THE STEADY PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON, MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES WHILE
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING. MVFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL CAUSING
IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT KMPV WHICH WILL BE IN HEAVIER BAND OF
RAINFALL. WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES
EXPECTED IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS WITH FRONTAL ZONE
AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE VERMONT TAF LOCATIONS.
00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DRY AND VFR WITH
BRIEF WINDOW OF HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE ALLOWED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS 15-20 KTS THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY LESSENING TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES
OF 2-3 FEET SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY AFTERNOON...BUT VISIBILITY
WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE FREQUENT
SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY STEADY RAINFALL BY LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
VTZ007>012-018-019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
NYZ034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
MARINE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WHERE THERE IS NO CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERED THEM A BIT WHERE THERE IS. ALSO INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY
BASED ON LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND MAV GUIDANCE. THE RAP SEEMS TO
BE HANDLING CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES WELL...SO BASED
AFTERNOON FORECAST TRENDS ON THOSE LATEST RUNS. OTHER THAN
THAT...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR
THIS UPDATE. DID LET THE FROST ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT...AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH THE RISING SUN. ALSO TWEAKED
CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE 06Z
NAM...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND
DEVILS LAKE BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. WITH A FEW LOCALES HAVING DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 20S. THE SOUTHWEST IS THE EXCEPTION AS RETURN FLOW IS
ADVECTING SOME LOW VFR AND MVFR CLOUDS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES HERE WERE IN THE LOWER 40S.
FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED. NO
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY WHICH EXPIRES AT 8 AM CDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CLOUD COVER IN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT
IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA - AFFECTING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS NEAR THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER NEARLY ALL
OF THE STATE...EXCEPT FOR THE VERY SOUTHWEST CORNER. TEMPERATURES
WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER 40S SOME
AREAS FAR SOUTH.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
AROUND SUNRISE...AND DRIFT TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WIND TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE STATE. LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND STRETCH ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO AROUND 70 IN THE WEST. THE SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING INTO THE 30S. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
A COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW AND BLOCKY PATTERN IS RESULTING IN LOWER THAN
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A HIGH SPREAD IN
THE ENVELOPE OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
A QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE COMES TO A HALT OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH OVER LOW REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THIS AREA. THE UPPER LOW THEN RETROGRADES BACK WEST INTO
SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME IN THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT
WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPECIFICS SUCH AS THE PLACEMENT OF QPF AS
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE VIGOROUS AND EXTENDS QPF FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. WILL STICK WITH A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION
WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPING CHANCE POPS
CONTAINED MAINLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL
PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY WHICH
WILL OVERTAKE THE SASKATCHEWAN UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...COMBINES WITH THE
STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
FINALLY MOVES OUT AND DRIES UP ON SUNDAY. AGAIN...THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED COOL CLOUDY
AND WET PERIOD ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
FAR SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE WETTEST...WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREAFTER
THE THREAT OF THUNDER LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
ON SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015
LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE. AS CEILINGS LOWER TONIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AFT 06Z...INCLUDING
KBIS/KMOT. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO IFR OVER KISN/KDIK. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL OVER KJMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ZH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
256 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LATEST FORECAST UPDATE REFLECTS CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN FROM STOKES
COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH PATRICK COUNTY...ACROSS
FLOYD AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WHERE PATRICK COUNTY MEETS FLOYD COUNTY...AS WELL AS
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
AS OF 930...ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH 2 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR
RAINFALL RATES...IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS PATRICK COUNTY. AN
ADDITIONAL TWO TO THREE INCHES IS LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN
THIS AREA THROUGH NOON.
LATEST RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CARRIES ABNORMALLY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED CLOSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MONTGOMERY...FLOYD AND PATRICK COUNTIES. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE
RAPIDLY DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH MANY OF THE SMALLER CREEKS
AND STREAMS FROM STOKES COUNTY NC THROUGH MONTGOMERY COUNTY VA
SWELLING OUT OF THEIR BANKS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 06Z/2AM TONIGHT.
THE 00Z GFS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE WERE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS LOW THAN THE NAM. ALL MODEL SHOWED INCREASING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND UPSLOPE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL AIDE IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH THE BETTER JET
DYNAMICS REMAINED ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND THE IMPACTS FROM THIS RAIN FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STARTING OUT VERY MILD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO
AROUND 70. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL RANGE FROM 1.6 TO 2.2 TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD BACK RISE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMIT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 0315 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW. DESPITE
THE PASSING OF THE FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THIS UNITED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO-TENN
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS TROUGH COULD
BECOME A CLOSED LOW ON THURSDAY. IF THIS CLOSED LOW DOES TAKE
SHAPE...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK. TO PUT A GOOD SPIN ON A DREARY FORECAST...THE BULK OF THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY
MAY BE A LITTLE ROUGH AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND
MODERATE DYNAMICS PRODUCE A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS. WITH AN ALREADY
SATURATED PLAYING FIELD...MODERATE RAIN RATES AND A RELATIVELY SLOW
MOVING LINE OF STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SOME THUNDER MAY BE HEARD WHILE THE SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW.
MORNING RAIN AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
COOL NORTHERLY AIR AND RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE
5F-10F BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH PAIRED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PAIRING WILL MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS AT ROUGHLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. ONCE THIS
TAKES PLACE...ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND NOTABLY COOLER AIR ADVANCING INTO AT LEAST THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AREAWIDE AS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SHOWERS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ADVANCES
NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST REGION. RAINFALL WILL CAUSE
VISIBILITIES TO BOUNCE UP AND DOWN...POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 1SM AT
TIMES. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...
BUT WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH 30/00Z...BEFORE FALLING BACK TO IFR LEVELS FOR THE NIGHT.
RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE
PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA...RESULTING IN MORE OF A LIGHT SHOWERY
NATURE. REGARDLESS...EXPECT IFR STRATUS AND MVFR FOG WILL FILL
BACK IN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
PERSIST HOWEVER...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT WILL CAUSE
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
MODELS SUGGEST POOR FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS A LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRACKING FROM AROUND RALEIGH TO
BLACKSBURG SINCE AROUND 8PM. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN LESS THAN THREE HOURS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL. RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS RAIN
WAS FALLING OVER COUNTIES THAT ALREADY HAD AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10
INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MODELS WERE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE
UPSLOPE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE.
BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE
EXPECTED LOCATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE
ONGOING FEED OF MOISTURE AND TRAINING SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT A MAJORITY OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO
RUNOFF...INITIALLY IMPACTING SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH RAPID
RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. LATER TODAY AND INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL RESPOND TO THE RAINFALL. FLOODING ON THE
RIVERS IS NOT CERTAIN BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ012>020-
022>024-032>035-043>045-058.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001>006-
018>020.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/NF
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/NF
HYDROLOGY...NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
350 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRY TO SHIFT INTO THE
PLAINS THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL CAP WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MAKING IT VERY FAR EAST. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OR AT LEAST
ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIE OFF AROUND INTERSTATE 25.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME ELEVATED AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
SLIDES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. HRRR MODEL...WHICH HAS HANDLED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL THE LAST COUPLE DAYS
DOES DEVELOP ELEVATED CONVECTION. BASED ON THE HRRR THE ACTIVITY
OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WILL DIE OFF AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING/NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE ANOTHER BATCH OF
ACTIVITY WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE BY MID EVENING. FORECAST POPS GENERALLY REPRESENT THE
HRRR SOLUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ARE VERY
UNLIKELY BUT A FEW WINDS GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH AND PEA SIZED
HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
THIS EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT IN HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE STRATUS
AND FOG WILL MAKE IT BUT IT COULD PARALLEL THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR A
WHILE TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BECOME WEST ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE WESTERN FLANKS OF
FOG AND STRATUS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF WEAK THETAE
ADVECTION NEAR THE TOP OF A SHALLOW SATURATED INVERSION. MOST OF
THE FOG/LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE WILL ERODE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW BUT PLACES LIKE ALLIANCE AND
SIDNEY NEBRASKA MAY NOT SEE THE SUN TOMORROW AS A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION MAY HOLD THE STRATUS IN PLACE.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMAL WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES IN AND NEAR THE SNOWY RANGE AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG INTO THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
THE CAP WILL HOLD AND IF THERE WILL BE ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN
PLACE. NOT CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE STORMS INTO THE PLAINS BUT IT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.
MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015
RAIN AND SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF MOVES EAST AND PIVOTS
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW STILL POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER MTNS BUT NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO ANY
ACCUMULATIONS INTO SAT MORNING SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. SOME
LULL IN THE PCPN ON SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT IMPULSE IN THE FLOW
ROTATES ACROSS SAT NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN. IN THE
MEANTIME A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW DRIFT NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SHORT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA SUNDAY DRYING
THINGS OUT AND ALLOWING FOR MILDER TEMPS AFTER A COOL DAY
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS SPREADING PCPN BACK OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AGAIN SNOWS LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MTN
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD...CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015
VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE WY TERMINALS THOUGH KCYS MAY HOLD AN MVFR
CIG BRIEFLY. OVER THE PANHANDLE WDSPRD MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY
TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS AND TSTRMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH. THAT WILL BE THE ONLY AREA WITH ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH SNOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ABOVE
9000 FEET BUT COULD SEE SOME SNOW AS LOW AS 8000 FEET.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...SML