Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/29/15


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
617 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 UPDATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON FRONTAL TRENDS AND THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS. FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE...INITIALLY WITH THE FRONT AND THEN SPREADING EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. MOZLEY && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 ...COOLER WEATHER MOVING INTO THE REGION... CURRENTLY... COOL FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ON KPUX AT 3 PM RUNNING NEARLY E-W FROM JUST N OF KPUB TO JUST N OF EADS. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH WHILE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY EASTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED. A LINE OF WEAK CUMULUS WERE NOTED WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS W WY/NW CO THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL BRING THE FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT... WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS VARY ON INTENSITY AND LOCATION...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING GENERALLY N OF HIGHWAY 50. HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A CLUSTER OF WEAK STORMS FORMING UP IN EL PASO COUNTY AND THEN DROPPING EAST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HRRR HAS BEEN HANGING ONTO THIS SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL RUNS...BUT BELIEVE IT MAY BE OVERDONE AS COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE. AS FOR CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT WE WILL SEE A BROKEN DECK DEVELOP BUT BELIEVE ANY CIG WILL MAINLY BE A MID LVL DECK AS PER SOUNDINGS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS UP IN N EL PASO COUNTY AND MAYBE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY NE WINDS DEVELOP SOON OVER THE EL PASO/PUEBLO COUNTY REGION AND LAST INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT SURGES SOUTH. TOMORROW... MOS PRODUCTS SHOW RATHER HIGH POPS TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND FORCING...PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT I AM A BIT HESITANT ON GOING AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE. FOR NOW PAINTED THE GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION IN SCATTERED POPS WITH MORE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE RATON MESA REGION AS FOR TIMING...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION...AND THE AREA OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE AS IT MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DOWN THE S MTN RANGE. THE BIG NEWS TOMORROW WILL BE THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE AREA...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. VALLEYS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL AS COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET INTO THE LARGER VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. /HODANISH .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 .TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR NORTH. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AND HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. .WEDNESDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. MODELS HAVE CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH FORECAST 500MB WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS. SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE LACKING WHICH CAN HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...GIVEN THE WEAKER AUTUMN SOLAR HEATING. HAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP. .THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR A DRY AND WARM DAY. .FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST FORCING WILL MOSTLY BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR NOW AS AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE LOW. THE MODEL DIFFERENCE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED STARTING SATURDAY. EC AND CANADIAN HAVE THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY. A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY MONDAY. THIS IS A WARMER SOLUTION WITH MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARTY MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE GFS LACKS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND IT HAS AN UPPER LOW STALLING OVER COLORADO. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A MUCH COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION. WPC SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE THE BLEND OF THE TWO AND PREDICTABILITY IS BELOW AVERAGE. CR EXTENDED GRIDS ARE A DECENT COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND ONLY TWEAKED THE GRIDS FOR CONSISTENCY. WITH A TROUGH NEARBY...THIS WEEKEND COULD BE COOLER WITH MORE AUTUMN LIKE TEMPERATURES. --PGW-- --PGW-- && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER KCOS AND POSSIBLY KPUB. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER KCOS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BUT SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY MID LVL. TOMORROW...SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLD TSRA ARE LIKELY AT KCOS AND POSSIBLY AT KPUB. SHOWERS WILL FORM RELATIVELY EARLY (LATE MORNING?) AND MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DOWN THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. KALS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...PGW AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015 THE NAM AND HRRR ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. THE LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BEING REPORTED THIS MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS WOULD SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL. AN UPR RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW SOME PCPN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING OVR PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD. CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD BE QUITE LOW...BUT WL PUT SOME SPOTTY 10 POPS OVR THE SW MTNS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE WARMING BEING OVR THE SERN PLAINS. MOST AREAS WL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE. TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND LOW TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015 MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS KEEP MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FIRST WAVE IS WITH THE GFS AND NAM...TO A LESSER DEGREE...FURTHER SOUTH AND PRINT OUT MORE QPF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THAN THE EC AND CANADIAN 00Z RUNS...WHICH ARE FURTHER NORTH AND KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS FOR MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSER THE DRIER EC AND CANADIAN FORECAST. FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE MORNING WHICH BACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...OWNING TO QUICKLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE COLORADO BEFORE SLOWLY COOLING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO COOL SOME 5-10F...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION AS PAC NORTHWEST WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. AGAIN SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF SAID WAVE...WITH THE GFS FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH. AT ANY RATE...SAID PATTERN LOOKS TO KEEP THE AREA MAINLY DRY...WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY...LEADING TO POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GFS AND EC CONTINUING TO SHOW RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF PASSING SYSTEM. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE THE GFS MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHEREAS THE EC IS WETTER ACROSS THE AREA AND HAS THE SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BEFORE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SAID DIFFERENCES AND NOT MUCH CONSENSUS IN ENSEMBLE DATA...HAVE KEPT CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN TACT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015 THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE SW MTS...VCNTY OF WOLF CREEK...THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE MTS AFTER 21Z MONDAY. MOORE && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS PUEBLO CO
415 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015 THE NAM AND HRRR ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. THE LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BEING REPORTED THIS MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS WOULD SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL. AN UPR RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW SOME PCPN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING OVR PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD. CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD BE QUITE LOW...BUT WL PUT SOME SPOTTY 10 POPS OVR THE SW MTNS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE WARMING BEING OVR THE SERN PLAINS. MOST AREAS WL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE. TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND LOW TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015 MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS KEEP MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FIRST WAVE IS WITH THE GFS AND NAM...TO A LESSER DEGREE...FURTHER SOUTH AND PRINT OUT MORE QPF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THAN THE EC AND CANADIAN 00Z RUNS...WHICH ARE FURTHER NORTH AND KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS FOR MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSER THE DRIER EC AND CANADIAN FORECAST. FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE MORNING WHICH BACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...OWNING TO QUICKLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE COLORADO BEFORE SLOWLY COOLING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO COOL SOME 5-10F...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION AS PAC NORTHWEST WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. AGAIN SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF SAID WAVE...WITH THE GFS FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH. AT ANY RATE...SAID PATTERN LOOKS TO KEEP THE AREA MAINLY DRY...WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY...LEADING TO POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GFS AND EC CONTINUING TO SHOW RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF PASSING SYSTEM. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE THE GFS MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHEREAS THE EC IS WETTER ACROSS THE AREA AND HAS THE SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BEFORE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SAID DIFFERENCES AND NOT MUCH CONSENSUS IN ENSEMBLE DATA...HAVE KEPT CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN TACT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015 SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE VCNTY OF KPUB AND KCOS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. KALS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1139 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. STILL NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE PLAINS BUT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S...TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE LOW AND SURFACE WINDS HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS. SO...IT COULD STILL HAPPEN LATER TONIGHT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 PUSHED BACK ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PLAINS GIVEN LACK OF DEVELOPMENT INDICATED BY SATELLITE PICTURES SO FAR. ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY) CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SLOWED THE WARMING PROCESS CONSIDERABLY. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE EASTERN CO BORDER. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SFC WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THEN E-SE...BUT HRRR...WRF AND RUC MODELS HINT AT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING RIGHT ALONG THE ARKANSAS TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THIS WOULD AID IN SOME LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES...AND PORTIONS OF KIOWA AND BACA COUNTIES AS WELL...WITH KLHX AND KLAA BEING THE MAIN AREAS AFFECTED. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FROM 06Z-13Z TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND NOT BECOME DENSE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 50F FOR THE PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...60S AND 70S FOR THE MTS. MOORE .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 ...PATTERN TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE... THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD AS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AND THEY SHOULD BRING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED PRECIP TO THE REGION. MONDAY... ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE 85 TO 90F RANGE WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL ALSO BE WARM WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F. AN ISOLD SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY... A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME DOWN THE PLAINS SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE AT MIDDLE LEVELS MOVES TO OUR NORTH. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH SOME CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD IN THE VALLEYS WITH 70S EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY... WE GET HOT AGAIN WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION SIMILAR TO MONDAYS HIGHS. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THURSDAY... BOTH MODELS SHOW A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE COMING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THIS DAY. GFS IS A BIT WEAKER BUT QUICKER WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS STRONGER AND A BIT SLOWER. IN EITHER CASE THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE HOT ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE WITH MID 80S TO L90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 70S VALLEYS. FOR NOW...I ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE C MTNS THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY... THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIMES LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. IF EC IS CORRECT...WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...POPS CHANCES WILL BE LESS AS SHORT WAVE IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. ATTM...MAX TEMPS FOR THU ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S....BUT I THINK THESE VALUES MAY BE A BIT WARM NO MATTER WHAT GUIDANCE VERIFIES. I WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS COME IN COOLER FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY... MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AS OF 05Z. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED LOW CIGS ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS EARLY SUN MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE MON EVENING BUT IT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK. ROSE && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LW SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1105 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1007 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 PUSHED BACK ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PLAINS GIVEN LACK OF DEVELOPMENT INDICATED BY SATELLITE PICTURES SO FAR. ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY) CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SLOWED THE WARMING PROCESS CONSIDERABLY. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE EASTERN CO BORDER. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SFC WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THEN E-SE...BUT HRRR...WRF AND RUC MODELS HINT AT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING RIGHT ALONG THE ARKANSAS TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THIS WOULD AID IN SOME LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES...AND PORTIONS OF KIOWA AND BACA COUNTIES AS WELL...WITH KLHX AND KLAA BEING THE MAIN AREAS AFFECTED. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FROM 06Z-13Z TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND NOT BECOME DENSE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 50F FOR THE PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...60S AND 70S FOR THE MTS. MOORE .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 ...PATTERN TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE... THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD AS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AND THEY SHOULD BRING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED PRECIP TO THE REGION. MONDAY... ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE 85 TO 90F RANGE WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL ALSO BE WARM WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F. AN ISOLD SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY... A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME DOWN THE PLAINS SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE AT MIDDLE LEVELS MOVES TO OUR NORTH. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH SOME CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD IN THE VALLEYS WITH 70S EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY... WE GET HOT AGAIN WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION SIMILAR TO MONDAYS HIGHS. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THURSDAY... BOTH MODELS SHOW A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE COMING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THIS DAY. GFS IS A BIT WEAKER BUT QUICKER WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS STRONGER AND A BIT SLOWER. IN EITHER CASE THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE HOT ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE WITH MID 80S TO L90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 70S VALLEYS. FOR NOW...I ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE C MTNS THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY... THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIMES LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. IF EC IS CORRECT...WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...POPS CHANCES WILL BE LESS AS SHORT WAVE IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. ATTM...MAX TEMPS FOR THU ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S....BUT I THINK THESE VALUES MAY BE A BIT WARM NO MATTER WHAT GUIDANCE VERIFIES. I WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS COME IN COOLER FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY... MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AS OF 05Z. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED LOW CIGS ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS EARLY SUN MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE MON EVENING BUT IT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK. ROSE && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LW SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1010 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1007 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 PUSHED BACK ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PLAINS GIVEN LACK OF DEVELOPMENT INDICATED BY SATELLITE PICTURES SO FAR. ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY) CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SLOWED THE WARMING PROCESS CONSIDERABLY. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE EASTERN CO BORDER. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SFC WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THEN E-SE...BUT HRRR...WRF AND RUC MODELS HINT AT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING RIGHT ALONG THE ARKANSAS TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THIS WOULD AID IN SOME LOW CLOUD/FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES...AND PORTIONS OF KIOWA AND BACA COUNTIES AS WELL...WITH KLHX AND KLAA BEING THE MAIN AREAS AFFECTED. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FROM 06Z-13Z TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND NOT BECOME DENSE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 50F FOR THE PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...60S AND 70S FOR THE MTS. MOORE .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 ...PATTERN TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE... THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD AS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...AND THEY SHOULD BRING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED PRECIP TO THE REGION. MONDAY... ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE 85 TO 90F RANGE WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEMPS IN THE VALLEYS WILL ALSO BE WARM WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F. AN ISOLD SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY... A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME DOWN THE PLAINS SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE AT MIDDLE LEVELS MOVES TO OUR NORTH. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH SOME CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS ON THE PLAINS RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD IN THE VALLEYS WITH 70S EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY... WE GET HOT AGAIN WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION SIMILAR TO MONDAYS HIGHS. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE STATE. THURSDAY... BOTH MODELS SHOW A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE COMING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THIS DAY. GFS IS A BIT WEAKER BUT QUICKER WITH THE SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS STRONGER AND A BIT SLOWER. IN EITHER CASE THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE HOT ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE WITH MID 80S TO L90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 70S VALLEYS. FOR NOW...I ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE C MTNS THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY... THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SOMETIMES LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. IF EC IS CORRECT...WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...POPS CHANCES WILL BE LESS AS SHORT WAVE IS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. ATTM...MAX TEMPS FOR THU ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S....BUT I THINK THESE VALUES MAY BE A BIT WARM NO MATTER WHAT GUIDANCE VERIFIES. I WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS COME IN COOLER FOR MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY... MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015 AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SE CO PLAINS TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME AREAS OF LOW CIGS UP THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING. MOST OF THE LOW CIGS SHOULD STAY E OF KLHX...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LESS EXTENSIVE AND PERSISTENT THEN IT WAS SAT MORNING. HAVE ALLUDED TO FEW020 CIGS IN THE KPUB TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME STRATUS MOVING UP THE ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ROSE && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LW SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1031 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TOMORROW...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT... BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1030 PM EDT...SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO NRN NY AND THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE FORMING WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...AND A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT. THE KENX RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND SE CATSKILLS. THIS IS DUE TO THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE PCPN FROM THESE SHOWERS...AND WE HAVE JUST ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST 00Z RAOB FROM KALY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE 700 HPA...BUT FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE REGION INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHC AND LIKELY VALUES IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE A MUCH MORE HUMID EVENING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS WITH SFC DEWPTS CREEPING UP INTO THE M50S TO M60S. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO M60S...EXCEPT SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREENS...N-CNTRL BERKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND THE SRN DACKS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY EVENING...AND THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO BECOMING LIGHTER IN INTENSITY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PWATS RISE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG H10-H8 THETA E RIDGE ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES ARE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR ALBANY SHOWING A RANGE OF 1.5 TO 4.5 INCHES WITH A CLUSTERING AROUND 2.5 INCHES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH QPF VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE AS THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE FA. STILL WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND CHANCE POPS NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50. THURSDAY AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS WET AND UNSETTLED WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC PATTERN FOR PERIODS OF RAINFALL BASED ON THE MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...AND THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THERE IS A GENERAL SHIFT TO A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS IN THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SURGES OF ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE POSSIBLE. OUR FCST CONTINUES THE TREND OF LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN...SUPERBLEND AND THE WPC GUIDANCE STARTING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED H500 CLOSED OR CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. A STRONG H250 JET WILL BE NEAR THE EAST COAST...A STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST OFF THE COAST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE ADVANCING N/NE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE EC/WPC/CAN GGEM/GEFS INDICATE ONE SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL. PWAT VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE LATEST GEFS ARE 1 TO 2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS DOES EVENTUALLY BRING SOME RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON...AS A SFC WAVE/FORMER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE /POSSIBLY TD-11/MAY MOVE N/NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OVERALL...HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA THU NIGHT...AND CHC POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH CHC POPS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE USED FOR THE RAINFALL ON FRI. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH MID AND U40S OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S ON FRI WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN. EXPECT A FEW U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A WET AND UNSETTLED WEEKEND IS LIKELY WITH THE H500 LONG-WAVE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FOCUSING PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS ARE INDICATING PWAT ANOMALIES OF 1 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V WIND ANOMALIES/ OF 1 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEAR EXTREME ERN NY AND OVER NEW ENGLAND. DEEP TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC IS LIKELY. A WAVE OR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ENHANCING THE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SAT/SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SFC WAVE IS UNCERTAIN. ACTUALLY...THE ECMWF IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS HERE WITH SFC WAVE OR TROPICAL SYSTEM BEING CAPTURED BY AN H500 CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND JUST HAS SOME OVER RUNNING MOISTURE IN THE NY/NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR WITH SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF WOULD BRING THE CUTOFF LOW TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHC POPS FOR RAIN FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...AND THEN LOWERED TO LOWER CHC POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECASTING EXACT TIMING HERE. ALSO...DURING THIS STRETCH OF FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE FCST AREA COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE PROBS FOR 2 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE IN 24 HRS ARE STILL UNDER 30 PERCENT FROM THE LATEST GEFS FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA /FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT/. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE CLOUDY AND WET REGIME WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND U40S WITH SOME U30S TO L40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE MID AND U50S...WITH SUNDAY BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH M50S TO L60S POSSIBLE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ON AN OPTIMISTIC NOTE...THE LATEST GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES A DRYING TREND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM OH VALLEY AND SE CANADA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT ON THE 12Z GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF WOULD KEEP IT WET AND UNSETTLED WITH THE CUTOFF OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHEAST WITH SCT SHOWERS. IN THE FCST GRIDS...WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. TEMPS TREND TO EARLY OCTOBER SEASONAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SOME CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. IT WILL NOT BE A WIDESPREAD RAIN AS WE GO PAST 12Z TUESDAY WITH THE MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME AT KGFL WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS WE GO PAST 18Z AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND WITH KGFL IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BEST CHANCES OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST AT AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF KALB. CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL DETERIORATE AS WE GO PAST 18Z AS OVC SKIES AND MORE STEADY RAINFALL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE APPROACHING THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO START THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE SE-SW BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA. WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA. FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT... BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...DROP TO 65 TO 85 PERCENT ON TUESDAY...RECOVER TO 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DROP TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY...VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. A MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SLOW- MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALL INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RISING WITH THE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT APPEARS A SOAKING RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 4+ INCHES IN SOME AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL FORECASTS WILL BE REFINED AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER. THE LATEST USGS STREAMFLOW DATA SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE REPORTING STREAMFLOW LEVELS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL LEVELS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE D0 CATEGORY...ABNORMALLY DRY. SO MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL RAPID RISES ON THE SMALLER/FLASHY RIVERS/STREAMS AS RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL RAINFALL RATES. MMEFS ANALYSIS FROM THE SREF HAS ROSENDALE...WILLIAMSTOWN...EAGLE BRIDGE AND ROCKINGHAM HAVING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH 18Z ON THE 1ST OF OCTOBER. IT ALSO HAS COLD BROOK AND PRATTSVILLE WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING ACTION STAGE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFM/11/WASULA NEAR TERM...LFM/WASULA SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...11 HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
902 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 .DISCUSSION... ...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDE... ...THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY... CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...NARROW BAND OF INVIGORATED CONVECTION LIFTING NORTH THRU CENTRAL FL MOST NOTEWORTHY NEAR SANFORD TO LAKE GEORGE WITH BANDED CLOUDS SOUTH OF THAT. PERSISTENT LIGHTNING SUPPORTS A CONTINUED MENTION FOR ISOLATED STORMS THIS PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN FORECAST ACROSS THE BOARD OVERNIGHT AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GATHER OVER THE EAST GULF OF MEXICO ENDEAVORING TO OVERSPREAD THE PENINSULA. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF AGREE WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO GULF PRECIP TO ENSUE AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUE ITS ENCROACHMENT OVERNIGHT. A FEW POCKETS OF EMBEDDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. TUE...(FROM PREVIOUS) WEAK LOW OVER THE N/NE GULF MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE INTO TUE WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL IN A S/SW FLOW. DESPITE THIS WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE AFT. MOS POPS REMAIN HIGH AND WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM THESE NUMBERS DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO 60 PERCENT BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT UNTIL THINGS CLEAR. HIGH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED IN THE MID/UPPER 80S TOMORROW. && .AVIATION...VCTS FOR KSFB THRU 03Z WITH OCNL CEILINGS 025CB. ALL SITES VCSH OVERNIGHT AS PRECIP TOWARD KTPA BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST. MAY NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUP FOR OCNL PERIODS OF RA AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY BELOW VFR. WILL WAIT UNTIL PRECIP SHIFT ACTUALLY BEGINS FOR BETTER TIMING. && .MARINE...LIGHT SE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS BECOMES S/SW INTO TUE AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVES NORTHWARD. NORTHEAST SWELLS WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD ~11 SEC UP TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. .COASTAL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS ELEVATED SWELLS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH DEPARTURES UP TO 1 TO 1.5 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THESE LEVELS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WITH WAVE RUN UP TO THE BASE OF THE DUNES ALONG SEVERAL BEACHES. THE NEXT THREE HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT: DAYTONA BEACH.....900 PM MONDAY...925 AM TUESDAY...953 PM TUESDAY PORT CANAVERAL....842 PM MONDAY...911 AM TUESDAY...934 PM TUESDAY SEBASTIAN INLET...851 PM MONDAY...923 AM TUESDAY...940 PM TUESDAY FT PIERCE INLET...908 PM MONDAY...940 AM TUESDAY...957 PM TUESDAY && .HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR CONTINUES NEAR 3.0 FT WHICH IS ABOUT 0.2 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH TIDES DOWNSTREAM HAVE AFFECTED THE DISCHARGE RATE BACKING UP THE RIVER LEVEL. RIVER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINING IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN IN OR NEAR THE BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR RISES DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 86 74 89 / 40 60 30 30 MCO 75 87 75 89 / 40 60 20 30 MLB 74 89 75 91 / 40 60 30 30 VRB 73 89 75 90 / 40 60 30 30 LEE 76 86 74 87 / 40 60 20 30 SFB 75 88 75 89 / 40 60 20 30 ORL 76 88 75 89 / 40 60 20 30 FPR 74 89 74 91 / 30 60 30 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DS IMPACT WX....MV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
751 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 .AVIATION... LINE OF STORMS OVER THE GULF WILL APPROACH APF THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH WEAKENING. SOME MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT WHEN IT ARRIVES. HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS MAY ONCE AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. A SHRTWV WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO TOMORROW AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS THE FL PANHANDLE. SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015/ UPDATE... THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT REALLY HAMPERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS AND THIS TREND IS BLENDING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A STRONG TO SEVERE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THIS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE OUTER SHORE GULF WATERS AND THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW FAR TO THE EAST THIS WILL TRAVEL. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW STORMS THAT MOVE INTO COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY LATER TONIGHT BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE A RATHER TRANQUIL EVENING. KOB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... ABOVE NORMAL TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS AND THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE SET THROUGH POSSIBLY TUESDAY EVENING. TIDAL FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS PAST WEEKEND AND EARLIER TODAY. FORECAST TIDAL LEVELS SHOW A SLIGHT RISE AT EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WITH A SMALL NE SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS...TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE EXPECTATION OF TIDAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. KEPT THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE GULF COAST AS FLOODING IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THERE. WEATHERWISE, AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SOUTH FLORIDA IS CURRENTLY SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN TWO TROUGHS, ONE CENTERED OVER THE TX/LA BORDER AND THE OTHER ALONG 70W EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN. THIS PLACES SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE WITH PATHETICALLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS. THE 500MB TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING FROM THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING WAS -4C WHICH IS THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR THIS DATE. THIS IS RESULTING IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE EVEN WITH A HIGH PWAT VALUE OF WELL OVER 2" AND HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED THE POPS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDER. THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND PICK UP THE GULF TROUGH AND LIFT IT TO THE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THE ATLANTIC TROUGH. THROUGH THIS PROCESS, THE MID AND UPPER FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BECOME DEEP WESTERLY BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TYPICALLY, THIS WOULD YIELD THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS AFTERNOON STORMS BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVE EASTWARD. BUT IN THIS CASE, THE DEEPEST LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO OUR WEST DRAWING MOISTURE UP FROM THE TROPICAL REGIONS. SO IF SOME CLEARING COULD OCCUR EITHER ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MORE MID LEVEL COOLING, THEN THE PATTERN OF RAINFALL MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER FORECASTS. LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)... THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA EITHER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS SHOWING DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE FIRST TASTE OF FALL SOUTH FLORIDA STYLE? WE SHALL SEE. THE DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MARINE... A SMALL NE SWELL WITH PERIOD NEAR 10 SEC IS FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...ABOUT 1 FT OFF MIAMI-DADE TO 2-3 FT OFF THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH PREDOMINANT DIRECTION OUT OF THE S-SE EARLY THIS WEEK...BECOMING W-NW MID TO LATE WEEK. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 5 FT OFF THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COAST TODAY-TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING. LOWER SEAS ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTH FL MARINE SERVICE AREA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 76 91 76 92 / 20 20 30 40 FORT LAUDERDALE 78 91 77 91 / 10 20 30 60 MIAMI 77 92 77 92 / 10 20 30 60 NAPLES 78 87 78 88 / 40 50 60 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-172-173. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR FLZ168. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...30/KOB LONG TERM....30/KOB AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
724 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 .UPDATE... THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT REALLY HAMPERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS AND THIS TREND IS BLENDING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A STRONG TO SEVERE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THIS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE OUTER SHORE GULF WATERS AND THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW FAR TO THE EAST THIS WILL TRAVEL. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL DIMINISH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW STORMS THAT MOVE INTO COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY LATER TONIGHT BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD EXPERIENCE A RATHER TRANQUIL EVENING. KOB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... ABOVE NORMAL TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS AND THIS TREND APPEARS TO BE SET THROUGH POSSIBLY TUESDAY EVENING. TIDAL FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS PAST WEEKEND AND EARLIER TODAY. FORECAST TIDAL LEVELS SHOW A SLIGHT RISE AT EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WITH A SMALL NE SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS...TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-DADE COASTAL LOCALES FOR THE EXPECTATION OF TIDAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. KEPT THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE GULF COAST AS FLOODING IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THERE. WEATHERWISE, AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SOUTH FLORIDA IS CURRENTLY SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN TWO TROUGHS, ONE CENTERED OVER THE TX/LA BORDER AND THE OTHER ALONG 70W EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN. THIS PLACES SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE WITH PATHETICALLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS. THE 500MB TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING FROM THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING WAS -4C WHICH IS THE WARMEST ON RECORD FOR THIS DATE. THIS IS RESULTING IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE EVEN WITH A HIGH PWAT VALUE OF WELL OVER 2" AND HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED THE POPS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDER. THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND PICK UP THE GULF TROUGH AND LIFT IT TO THE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THE ATLANTIC TROUGH. THROUGH THIS PROCESS, THE MID AND UPPER FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BECOME DEEP WESTERLY BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TYPICALLY, THIS WOULD YIELD THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS AFTERNOON STORMS BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVE EASTWARD. BUT IN THIS CASE, THE DEEPEST LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO OUR WEST DRAWING MOISTURE UP FROM THE TROPICAL REGIONS. SO IF SOME CLEARING COULD OCCUR EITHER ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MORE MID LEVEL COOLING, THEN THE PATTERN OF RAINFALL MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER FORECASTS. LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)... THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA EITHER LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS SHOWING DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE FIRST TASTE OF FALL SOUTH FLORIDA STYLE? WE SHALL SEE. THE DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MARINE... A SMALL NE SWELL WITH PERIOD NEAR 10 SEC IS FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...ABOUT 1 FT OFF MIAMI-DADE TO 2-3 FT OFF THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH PREDOMINANT DIRECTION OUT OF THE S-SE EARLY THIS WEEK...BECOMING W-NW MID TO LATE WEEK. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 5 FT OFF THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COAST TODAY-TUESDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING. LOWER SEAS ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTH FL MARINE SERVICE AREA. && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-172-173. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR FLZ168. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .DISCUSSION... ...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY... .UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS TX AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NW BAHAMAS. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE ERN GULF IS ALLOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF FL IN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS IN THE 2.1-2.4 INCH RANGE OF THE FL WEST COAST. CLOSER TO HOME...CENTRAL FL SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING INDICATED PWATS FROM 1.96 TO 1.98 INCHES AT TBW AND XMR. H5/H7 TEMPS WERE ON THE WARM SIDE AROUND -5 TO -6 DEGS AT AT 500 MBS AND +9 TO +10 DEGS C AT 700 MBS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SE/ERN GULF OFF THE FL WEST COAST THIS MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS ACROSS E CENTRAL/SE FL WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING TODAY TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE INTERIOR IN EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 5 KNOTS IN THE SFC TO 10 KFT LAYER. WILL CONTINUE POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE FROM 30 PCT NEAR THE COAST TO 40 PCT FOR THE INTERIOR. && .COASTAL...A MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENT AT EAST CENTRAL FL BEACHES TODAY. THE LAST TWO HIGH TIDES AT TRIDENT PIER AT PORT CANAVERAL HAVE REACHED 5.8 FT ABOVE MLLW...JUST BELOW OUR LOCAL CRITERIA FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. TIDAL DEPARTURES CONTINUE ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AS WE APPROACH THE FULL (SUPER) MOON TONIGHT. EXPECT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE TO AGAIN HAVE ATLC TIDES REACH THE BASE OF THE DUNES AT SOME OF OUR ATLC BEACHES. UPCOMING HIGH TIDES... DAYTONA BEACH SUNGLOW PIER 808 PM PORT CANAVERAL, TRIDENT PIER 750 PM SEBASTIAN INLET BRIDGE 803 PM FORT PIERCE INLET SOUTH JETTY 820 PM && .AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL DVLP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR CSTL TERMINALS 16Z-18Z...AND PUSH INLAND TWD THE INTERIOR 19Z-23Z. MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. && .MARINE... LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ATLC WATERS WILL BECOME ENE AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 3-5 FT IN A NORTHEAST SWELL. && .HYDROLOGY... THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR IS AROUND 2.9 FT THIS MORNING ABOUT 0.1 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH TIDES DOWNSTREAM HAVE AFFECTED THE DISCHARGE RATE BACKING UP THE RIVER LEVEL AT TIMES. A SLOW FALL IS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN NEAR THE BASIN MON AFTN AND TUE AFTN WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR RISES DEPENDING ON ANY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ VOLKMER/WEITLICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
505 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... 09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/DEEP SOUTHERN STATES THIS MORNING. MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS STILL DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BY A SW TO NE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. EAST OF THIS RIDGE THE SAME BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WE DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT REMAINS IN PLACE...ANCHORED BY A LARGE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF HAS ACTED TO STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA/WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE INCREASING GRADIENT IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS RESULTED IN A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET THAT IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR HEADS. NOT THINKING WE WILL BE SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF SUNSHINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS ACTUALLY QUITE IMPRESSIVE. THE 27/00Z KTBW SOUNDING MEASURED A PW VALUE OF 2.14". THIS VALUE IS OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS SHOW A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE PW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS NO LESS COMPLEX THAN IT IS ALOFT. LOOKING AT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WE HAVE A RIDGE SNEAKING DOWN INTO GA/AL TO OUR NORTH...A WEAK LOW SPINNING TO NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ANOTHER WEAK LOW/TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN IS PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. REGIONAL RADARS ARE QUIET OVER THE PENINSULA...HOWEVER ENERGY ALOFT LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN EXPANDING AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY WEST OF OUR COAST THIS MORNING...HOWEVER TRENDS ARE MAKING ME INCREASINGLY NERVOUS THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE A CLOSER PASS TO THE SUNCOAST FROM LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO PINELLAS COUNTY THAN WHAT THE NWP CONSENSUS...OR CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND UPDATE IF NECESSARY. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP HAVE CERTAINLY TRENDED EASTWARD WITH THE PRECIP...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT STILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF ITS CONVECTIVE PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... A VERY COMPLEX PATTERN...DEFINED BY LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...AS AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW ENTERS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF AND MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL OR NORTHEAST GULF COAST. AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS...LEADING ENERGY ALOFT IS REALLY MAKING FOR SOME ACTIVE CONVECTION OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A REAL POTENTIAL THAT POPS ALONG THE COAST MAY NEED TO BE RAISED FOR LATER THIS MORNING IF CURRENT RADAR/CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WITH THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...EVEN LATEST RAP/HRRR...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY JUST OFFSHORE...AM SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE MAKING A LARGE SWING TOWARD A WETTER FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUCH IS THE NATURE OF METEOROLOGY. WE WORK WITH INCOMPLETE DATA SETS. MOST OF THE TIME ITS SUFFICIENT...BUT WITH LESS DEFINED SYSTEMS...WE CAN PLAY A GAME OF "CATCH UP" EVEN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY MIGHT BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND GIVE AS MUCH "HEAD UP" TIME ON ANY CHANGES TOWARD A WETTER FORECAST FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS MORNING. LETS SWITCH MODES AND TALK ABOUT THE LOW EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF...AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON OUR AREA LATE TODAY INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE FOCUS SHOULD NOT BE ON WHETHER THIS SYSTEM RECEIVES A NAME OR NOT. IT DOES NOT TAKE A NAMED SYSTEM TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND AFTER THE PAST TWO MONTHS HERE IN WESTERN FLORIDA...ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT WHAT WE NEED. THE WAY IT APPEARS NOW...THIS WILL BE A VERY CLOSE CALL FOR OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL ZONES. THE GENERAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE/SYNOPTIC LIFT WRAPPING AROUND ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS SYNOPTIC FORCING EXTENDS. ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE A SIMILAR PATTERN...HOWEVER SOME ALLOW THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVIER RAIN BANDS TO JUST MAKE IT TO THE COAST OF THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT JUST OFFSHORE. WITH THIS STILL BEING SUCH AN ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM...IT IS SIMPLY IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WHAT OUR COASTAL LAND ZONES WILL EXPERIENCE. THE NEW FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO REACH THE COAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT NOT GO QUITE AS ROBUST/PESSIMISTIC AS THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS. THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A GENERAL 1-2" RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN MIND THAT BANDS OF HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE COASTAL ZONES...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE NATURE COAST. WOULD LIKE TO WAIT JUST A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE HOW THE 12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE HANDLES EVERYTHING...HOWEVER FLOOD WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING HAS A BETTER POTENTIAL TO STAY TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT...AT LEAST SCT TO NMRS DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND DURATION OF RAINFALL WILL BE LESS INLAND...RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE QUITE HIGH. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)... COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A STRONG U/L LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL INDUCE DOWNSTREAM U/L RIDGING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AS THE U/L TROUGH OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IF THE U/L RIDGE WILL INITIALLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF FROM ADVECTING OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF ARE FURTHER EAST WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK WITH AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SREF RETAINS A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM HOLDING THE SURFACE LOW MUCH FURTHER WEST WHICH WOULD DELAY ONSET OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EITHER WAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EARLY IN THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WITH TIMING OF ONSET IN DOUBT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION WITH PCPW VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR SEVERAL PERIODS. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST U/L DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...U/L FORCING COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. MANY RIVERS THAT HAD FINALLY FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE WILL AGAIN BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. COULD ALSO SEE TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SETTLES AND STALLS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DEEP WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE BOUNDARY. L/W TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHEAST GULF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DECREASING POPS. HOWEVER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING INCREASING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AROUND KLAL TOWARD DAWN...NO SIGNIFICANT VIS/CIG RESTRICTION ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH ALL TERMINALS POTENTIALLY SEEING A PASSING STORM. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF FOR KSRQ/KTPA/KPIE AND THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN FURTHER TAF PACKAGES. && .MARINE... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL OR NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER...WITH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS WILL BE OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE FORECAST WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WET...AND BE DEFINED BY HIGH RAIN CHANCES. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND LONGEST DURATION OF RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER EVEN INLAND AREAS WILL SEE HIGH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING PASSING STORMS. FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG OR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 77 86 76 / 50 40 70 60 FMY 90 76 88 76 / 50 30 60 40 GIF 89 75 88 75 / 50 30 60 40 SRQ 87 77 85 77 / 50 40 80 60 BKV 89 74 87 73 / 50 40 70 60 SPG 88 77 86 77 / 50 40 80 60 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GULF WATERS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
407 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]... The 11 pm EDT surface analysis showed a relatively strong ridge building southward along the Piedmont, and a weak perturbation in the easterlies across the FL Big Bend and south central GA. There was a trough in the western Gulf of Mexico, associated with an upper level low over east TX, and a broad area of low pressure across the Yucatan Peninsula. While this system was being monitored for tropical development, all of the deep moist convection associated with it was to its east, in the northwest Caribbean Sea. There is good agreement among the numerical guidance in bringing a portion of this low slowly northward into the south central Gulf of Mexico later this afternoon. Fortunately the current lack of organization of this system, coupled with strong winds aloft, should limit tropical development. Deep layer moisture will increase to ample levels today. However, any Q-G forcing will be limited to west of Tallahassee later this afternoon, associated with the southerly mid-upper tropospheric flow on the eastern flank of the aforementioned east TX low. We think the GFS MOS PoPs are too high across GA today, and our PoP is much closer to our local ECAM. Higher PoPs are also forecast across north FL, as another perturbation in the low-layer easterlies propagates westward late today. With mostly cloudy skies high temperatures will "only" be in the lower to mid 80s. .Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... It has been some time since I`ve seen a set of forecasts continue to be low confidence along with significant consistency issues between the models. What clarity exists this cycle is largely that each model ended up looking like its predecessor. So, there`s still no overarching model consensus in the short term period. The real discernible trend is that it is becoming less likely an organized tropical system develops. It also is looking less certain that an organized heavy rainfall threat will materialize. The 27/00z NAM continued to be the westernmost of the guidance, so was largely discounted. The 27/00z GFS looks like it had some initialization issues with the energy over/near the Yucatan and the 27/00z Euro is on the right side of the available guidance. With all the disagreement, opted for a forecast solution that is heavily weighted toward the previous forecast. Rain chances will increase steadily tonight and into Monday. The best concentration of lift and deep layer moisture should be present on Monday across the area. It`s difficult to pinpoint where, so oriented the PoP forecast in a north-south gradient as it`s entirely possible the best forcing for ascent remains to the south over the marine area, limiting both the inland coverage and intensity of the rainfall. By Monday night and into Tuesday as the upper low over the Western Gulf shifts eastward, it should start to move whatever system we have over the eastern Gulf off to the NE of the region and gradually wind down the rain chances. Whether this happens as quickly as depicted in the models is still uncertain, so kept fairly high rain chances in through Tuesday afternoon, fairly close to the average of the models. There still is some potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially for areas near the coast. This is supported by the latest ECAM run. As we move a little closer to the onset of the event hopefully future hi-res models will offer some better agreement on this system. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... With the pattern across the Eastern CONUS to amplify as a trough moves through the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid Atlantic States by Wednesday, expect it to swing through our region on Wednesday night greatly diminishing rain chances. Of course there`s the expected differences between the Euro and GFS at longer ranges, but the overall pattern suggests a drier forecast for Thursday through Saturday as deep layer moisture is shifted to the south and east of the forecast area. && .Aviation... [Through 06Z Monday] The GFS and NAM MOS are forecasting cigs AOB IFR at all terminals for much of the period, while the HRRR and other high-resolution NWP guidance has MVFR cigs. MOS has not verified that well in this weather pattern recently, so this TAF package follows the other guidance more closely, with mostly MVFR cigs through the period. SHRA are expected this afternoon at KECP. Elsewhere the PoP is too low to mention in this package, but there will be scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA in the FL Panhandle, Big Bend, and southeast AL. && .Marine... Expect easterly winds to continue to slowly increase today and reach advisory levels on Monday. As an area of disturbed weather moves over the marine area during this time, expect widespread showers and storms. Conditions will begin to slowly improve on Tuesday with lighter winds returning by Wednesday. && .Fire Weather... Increasing rain chances may make it difficult to perform controlled burns through mid week. && .Hydrology... Primary focus will continue to be on the approaching storm system and the associated heavy rain threat. High-res guidance suggests the threat for the heaviest rainfall will be nearer to the coast and not as far inland as indicated yesterday. As a result, storm total rainfall amounts for this event have been adjusted. Storm total rainfall of 3 to 4 inches is anticipated across the Florida Panhandle and into the Florida Big Bend with isolated heavier totals possible. Further inland, rainfall amounts should generally be around 2 inches. With the heavier amounts nearer to the coast, area rivers will be able to handle this event without reaching flood stage given the recent dry conditions. With current streamflows, we`d need several inches of rain to get into the upper portions of many of the larger rivers and streams to produce river flooding - which is something we don`t see happening with this particular event. That being said, the fact that some of this rainfall could occur quickly and over a short time period suggests a threat for urbanized flash flooding. With low confidence in the placement of the heaviest rain, and the onset not expected until Monday afternoon, will defer a flash flood watch decision to the afternoon shift so they can hopefully better refine the threat area with the next couple of ECAM runs. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 83 73 82 73 83 / 50 70 80 80 60 Panama City 81 74 80 75 82 / 80 80 90 80 60 Dothan 81 70 79 71 79 / 40 50 70 70 60 Albany 82 70 82 72 80 / 30 50 70 70 60 Valdosta 83 72 83 73 84 / 40 50 80 70 60 Cross City 86 73 84 74 84 / 60 60 80 90 70 Apalachicola 80 76 81 77 82 / 70 80 90 80 60 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1025 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... IT APPEARS CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE AND INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY....AND STALL NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST. SOME POSSIBILITIES OF FAIR WEATHER RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE FA. THE SURFACE RIDGE AND EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA. INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING NORTH INTO THE CSRA TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FA. OVERCAST SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL PROMOTE LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... SW UPPER FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE WEST GULF UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT EAST AS MAIN STREAM TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE E CONUS. WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE GULF TO DRIFT NE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND SE CONUS. LATEST MODELS APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT BEST UPPER LIFT AND BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD REMAIN MAINLY JUST TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...BUT NONETHELESS HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BACK DOOR INTO THE REGION LATE WED/WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS THU/FRI WITH CUT- OFF LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SW UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION APPEAR WILL LEAD TO FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS APPEARS TO KEEP OUR FA IN A COOL AND POSSIBLY WEAK WEDGE-LIKE NE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU/FRI. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SAT/SUN WITH A ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...SUGGESTING MOISTURE TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-FETCH ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF THE PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST STATES AND LOW PRESSURE PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT IFR OR LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND NAM MOS. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. DRY AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
737 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... IT APPEARS CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE AND INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY....AND STALL NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST. SOME POSSIBILITIES OF FAIR WEATHER RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE FA. THE SURFACE RIDGE AND EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA. INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING NORTH INTO THE CSRA TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FA. OVERCAST SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL PROMOTE LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... SW UPPER FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE WEST GULF UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT EAST AS MAIN STREAM TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE E CONUS. WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE GULF TO DRIFT NE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND SE CONUS. LATEST MODELS APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT BEST UPPER LIFT AND BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD REMAIN MAINLY JUST TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...BUT NONETHELESS HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BACK DOOR INTO THE REGION LATE WED/WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS THU/FRI WITH CUT- OFF LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SW UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION APPEAR WILL LEAD TO FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS APPEARS TO KEEP OUR FA IN A COOL AND POSSIBLY WEAK WEDGE-LIKE NE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU/FRI. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SAT/SUN WITH A ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...SUGGESTING MOISTURE TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-FETCH ONSHORE FLOW SOUTH OF THE PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST STATES AND LOW PRESSURE PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT IFR OR LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND NAM MOS. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. DRY AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ 99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
905 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 Skies are remaining partl to mostly cloudy with most of the clouds to the southeast, south of I-72. In addition, radar showing very light pcpn moving across southeast IL this evening. Believe this will continue the remainder of the night. Showers and isolated storms are moving across Iowa just behind the front that is still forecast to move into the area early morning. Current forecast looks good, but may do some minor tweaks to pops/wx in southeast IL. Only adjustment will be to wording of wx in southeast to scattered and isolated, instead of chance and slight chance. Update will be out shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 Original shield of lower clouds has been contracting throughout the day, and was basically limited to areas from Peoria to Chicago this afternoon. Remainder of the CWA has seen clouds more of a diurnal nature, which has allowed enough sunshine to get temperatures into the lower 80s. So far the showers have remained extremely isolated. Precipitation threat for the forecast area tonight will be coming from a couple different directions. Across the southeast CWA, some upper level energy will continue to surge northward up the Mississippi River as the upper low over east Texas lifts northeast and starts to open up. Showers should remain isolated this evening, before rain chances start to ramp up late night as the energy gets closer. Could be a rumble or two of thunder in the far southeast late tonight, as the RAP shows lifted index values falling to near zero, but chance is too small at the moment to include in the forecast. Across the northwest CWA, the main player will be the cold front which currently is pushing through northwest Iowa. Arrival of the frontal boundary will be after 3 AM, and most of the rain will be post-frontal, so will only carry some slight 20-30% PoP`s northwest of the Illinois River late tonight. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Monday) ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 A cold front will cross from near I-72 to start the day Tuesday to near the southern tip of Illinois by evening. At the same time, low pressure over the south central states will drift toward the southeastern U.S., helping to combine enough moisture, lift, and instability into mainly the southern half of Illinois for showers and isolated thunderstorms. As a result...keeping chances for showers/isolated thunder south of I-72 for Tuesday...with chances of showers diminishing to the north through the day. Highs will feature a strong gradient across central IL, ranging from the upper 60s in Galesburg to near 80 in Lawrenceville as cooler and drier air moves in behind the front. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s to start the day to slip into the low to mid 50s behind the front over northern counties Tue afternoon. Breezy north-northeast winds behind the front will increase...reaching 10-15 mph with gusts into the 20 mph range. Fairly persistent high pressure will settle into the Great Lakes Region for the remainder of the work week...promoting an extended period of breezy northeast winds and mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 60s and low 70s through Friday with lows mainly in 40s. There remains fairly poor model agreement over the weekend into early next week...with a weak trough passing through the region in the GFS...but a building ridge into the Plains and upper Midwest in the ECMWF. Neither would have a good chance for precipitation and forecast is therefore dry. Both would feature lighter winds. Temperatures likely will feature minimal trend through the weekend and kept highs in the 60s and lows mid-upper 40s. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Tuesday EVENING) ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 Lots of mid clouds around 8kft still over the area, but based on observation trends and satellite loops, believe the lower mid clouds will dissipate quickly this evening and leave higher mid clouds or high clouds over the area remainder of the night. So will go with mid clouds around 12-15kft for the night with light and variable winds. Then tomorrow, after the front has moved through, scattered showers will be possible at all sites and winds will increase out of the north-northeast...behind the front. With light pcpn and vis decreasing, expecting MVFR cigs below 3kft at all sites during the day tomorrow. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Auten SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Onton AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
247 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 Cloud cover remains fairly extensive across the area today, with the earlier breaks near the I-74 corridor quickly filling in late morning with diurnal cumulus. A few showers have been tracking northwest out of southern Illinois, associated with what is left of the upper low over the Tennessee Valley. Forecast soundings not really showing much in the way of clearing this evening, with skies mainly partly to mostly cloudy. A feature of interest is overnight, with the last few runs of the RAP showing a surge of stratus advecting northeast into our area after midnight and covering most of the state, along with some dense fog late in the night. The latest NAM model favors more of a patchy fog scenario, which would seem more likely given the lack of widespread clearing plus not much of a wind field to advect the low clouds into this area, so will continue with mention of patchy fog for now. && .LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Sunday) ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 While by no means certain at this point, a bit more clarity has started to develop in the forecast for the remainder of the week. Above normal temperatures are expected to linger for a couple more days, then trend toward normal in the wake of Tuesday`s cold front, with below normal temperatures possible by the weekend as some degree of upper troffing develops across eastern North America. The model consensus has also trended back toward a drier solution for the week, with the best chances of rainfall occurring in the vicinity of the frontal passage on Tuesday. Maintained a very low chance for rainfall on Monday as weak disturbances track northeast up the Ohio River Valley from the Gulf of Mexico. However, the very modest forcing and instability support little more than we are currently seeing across southern Illinois today as far as coverage and intensity. A cold front, currently extending from northern Ontario into the central Plains, will sink southeast across the forecast area later Monday night into Tuesday. This front will not have much going for it as far as support for precipitation production. The best forcing will remain across Canada with the faster upper-level flow, with the best moisture bottled up with a system along the Gulf coast. So, plan to keep PoPs on the low side with fropa, and it is entirely possible that most locations will remain dry. However, this appears to be our best shot for widespread rainfall this week. A Canadian surface high builds into the area behind the cold front, which should help shave several degrees of the daily max/min temperatures. Aloft, the flow across North America is expected to transition from mostly zonal to more of a troffy pattern. However, exactly how the upper pattern will look by late week and how we`ll get there is still very much up for debate. Model spread remain significant, with the spaghetti plots looking much like a pile of spaghetti. There does not appear to be a strong signal for rainfall at any one time, although there is some consensus that it is possible over the weekend. Expect the weekend to be more dry than not, but there will certainly be some risk of rain. We`ll have to see how the models eventually resolve the coming pattern shift to pin point the threat better. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 Fairly large area of IFR/MVFR conditions across the southern quarter of Illinois at midday, spreading north-northwest. Starting to see some scattered clouds below 3000 feet in central Illinois as well, including some MVFR conditions at KPIA which saw diurnal cumulus develop recently. Latest mesoscale models do not show the low cloud shield in southern Illinois making much further progress, but some brief MVFR conditions are possible in our area the next few hours. Main period of concern is overnight. Moisture surge from the south is increasing the atmospheric moisture, and the latest RAP model is suggesting a large area of stratus below 1,000 feet overspreading the area from the southwest after 06Z. Probability guidance from the SREF shows this, although a bit further west (mainly KPIA-KSTL westward). Most of the other guidance is not that pessimistic, but does bring at least MVFR conditions everywhere. Right now, will lean more toward the MVFR scenario as winds stay up a bit, but will need to watch closely. Any lower ceilings are likely to linger until about 14-15Z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Bak AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 948 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 Currently seeing some temporary breaks in the cloud cover from about Galesburg to Terre Haute, but am expecting these to fill in over the next couple hours. Nice moisture surge occurring up the Mississippi River valley around the circulation of an upper low near Houston, with precipitable water values around 1.5 inches spreading into our area, so any breaks should be filled by diurnal clouds forming with the added moisture. Currently seeing some scattered showers near the I-64 corridor in southeast Illinois moving northwest, and latest high-resolution models continue to show a few showers through the afternoon spreading into central Illinois, so will maintain the 20% PoP`s. No change made to forecast high temperatures, but will need to watch this closely as the thicker cloud cover may require this to be adjusted down a tad. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 The upper low that was over central Tennessee yesterday morning at this time has really become diffuse on satellite data with several weak circulations noted to our south, with little evidence any of them are heading in our direction today. The clouds that finally pushed into the central and northwest sections of our forecast area late yesterday have temporarily decreased in areal coverage early this morning. However, forecast soundings thru the day suggest quite a bit more moisture located in the 950-850 mb layer to work with so any breaks this morning should quickly fill in with daytime heating. As far as precip is concerned, with the increase in low level moisture and model data suggesting Precipitable water values of around 1.5 inches over the entire area, isolated showers will be possible as temps warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. High res model reflectivity simulations do show some widely scattered showers across the area for a time this afternoon, before quickly dissipating just before sunset. The further south into the forecast area you go, the better the chances of seeing an isolated shower or two this afternoon, as this particular part of the forecast area will be a bit closer to the weak forcing associated with what is left of the upper wave to our southeast. As a result, will keep the slight chance wording for areas south of a Rushville to Champaign line for mainly this afternoon. .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Saturday) ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 Will linger a slight chance of showers over southeast IL early this evening with weak upper level system to our southeast. Then with loss of diurnal influence after sunset, think dry weather will prevail across area with patchy fog possible northern areas later tonight into early Monday morning. Still think better chances of fog will be further north over northern IL into WI as has been the case the past few nights where less cloud cover. Lows tonight in the lower 60s. On Monday continue slight chance of showers in eastern IL from late morning into the afternoon hours with lingering influence of weak upper level wave over the ohio river valley. Skies to trend partly sunny on Monday with warmer highs in the lower 80s. 00Z forecast models have trended a bit quicker with cold front pushing southward into northern IL Monday night. Have added slight chances of showers north of Peoria overnight Monday night. Front then slides southward across central and southeast IL on Tue with 20- 30% chances of showers. Instability appears weak with the passage of this front on Tue and only have isolated thunder in southeast IL Tue afternoon where better timing of front during heat of the day. Plus shower chances appear post frontal/behind the front so thunderstorm chances would be less than. Highs Tue range from near 70F at Galesburg to lower 80s south of I-72 with mid 80s near Lawrenceville. Have isolated showers southern areas Tue evening then think we will have a dry and cooler period as high pressure settles into the Midwest. Lows Tue night range from upper 40s to near 50F over IL river valley, to the mid to upper 50s in southeast IL. Cooler highs Wed in the low to mid 70s with Galesburg near or just shy of 70F. An upper level trof digs over the eastern states later this week and temps to trend closer to normal during 2nd half of week with highs in the low to mid 70s and a few upper 60s northern areas at times. Rain chances look less with this model suite and have trimmed pops down to either dry or just a few slight chances in mainly western/SW areas later this week. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 Fairly large area of IFR/MVFR conditions across the southern quarter of Illinois at midday, spreading north-northwest. Starting to see some scattered clouds below 3000 feet in central Illinois as well, including some MVFR conditions at KPIA which saw diurnal cumulus develop recently. Latest mesoscale models do not show the low cloud shield in southern Illinois making much further progress, but some brief MVFR conditions are possible in our area the next few hours. Main period of concern is overnight. Moisture surge from the south is increasing the atmospheric moisture, and the latest RAP model is suggesting a large area of stratus below 1,000 feet overspreading the area from the southwest after 06Z. Probability guidance from the SREF shows this, although a bit further west (mainly KPIA-KSTL westward). Most of the other guidance is not that pessimistic, but does bring at least MVFR conditions everywhere. Right now, will lean more toward the MVFR scenario as winds stay up a bit, but will need to watch closely. Any lower ceilings are likely to linger until about 14-15Z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
356 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .DISCUSSION... AIR TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LAST HOUR WITH SOME VARIABLE WINDS...BUT MOSTLY NE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. OUR 88D RADAR IS SHOWING A GOOD BOUNDARY LOW LEVEL FORCING OR COOL POOL OF 70S IF YOUR WILL TO OUR SOUTH...MIXING WARMER AS IT MOVES NW. A FEW SHOWERS IN OUR AREA ARE OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS AND SOME BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER TOLEDO BEND MOVING NW IN SAM RAYBURN. THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND...ELONGATING OVER THE COAST. VERY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ARE PILING INTO THE SABINE PASS. WE WILL KEEP ON AN EYE ON THIS PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS A GREAT DEAL MORE PANCAKING CUMULUS ALONG I-30 NOW UNDER THE WARM NOSE...WHILE MULTI DECKS ARE PILING INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR ERODING THE CAP. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE OUR NEXT SOUNDING. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER SW OKLAHOMA YESTERDAY IS NOW PRETTY MUCH THE NEW BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST GULF AS UNFOLDING PATTERN REMAINS AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS CLOSE OFF THE LOW TONIGHT WITH REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AROUND 5780M OR SO FOR THE 500 MB LEVEL. SOME NOCTURNAL COVERAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE CORE WHICH COULD BRUSH OUR SOUTHERN TIER WITH CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING THE LOWER LEVELS. AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW KEEPS WRAPPING UP TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PILE IN...AND ERODED THE CAP. FORCING IS FAIR TO DECENT WITH A DEEPENING SOUTHEAST FLOW BOUND TO BE PRODUCTIVE SOMEWHERE...EVEN UNDER THE INVERSION IF IT CAN BE LIFTED. SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT WITH HRRR MODEL SPOTTY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH SOME ISOLATED EVEN ALONG I-30. ALL THE MODELS AND WPC QPF LOOK ENCOURAGING. THE OVER RAIN CHANCE LOOKS FAIR TO AWESOME FOR A LUCKY FEW AT LEAST. HOPEFULLY...AS THE LOW WORKS BACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA WE CAN MAKE MOST OF THAT NOCTURNAL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. WE HAVE SLIGHT TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW WRAPS UP. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE DRY SLOT AND ALL THE DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHICH IS SCOURING OUT THE GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE WATER VAPOR WILL BE INDICATIVE AS THE SURFACE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON TO NE WINDS. OUR 88D VAD IS SHOWING ENE TO 7KFT AND THEN ALL SOUTHEAST ALOFT...HOWEVER MAINTAINING RIGHT AT THAT CAP THIS AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT OF AN OVERRUNNING PRECIP TYPE MAY UNFOLD IF THE CAP ERODES WITH ONLY A SHALLOW NE SFC FLOW LEFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THUS THE LUCKY FEW AT LEAST. OUR HOPE IS TO JUST GO AHEAD BLOW THE DRIEST MONTH RECORD AND SEE THE WPC QPF AND MORE AS THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE FOUR STATE AREA ALL TO SOON BY MIDWEEK. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 70 87 70 87 / 30 50 30 50 MLU 70 85 69 86 / 30 60 30 50 DEQ 65 86 67 86 / 10 20 20 40 TXK 67 85 68 85 / 20 40 30 40 ELD 66 84 66 84 / 30 50 30 50 TYR 69 87 69 87 / 20 40 20 40 GGG 68 86 69 88 / 20 40 30 40 LFK 67 85 69 87 / 40 50 30 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1116 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .UPDATE... ADD A BIT OF CLOUDS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. && .DISCUSSION... MOST OF THE MORNING CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED HEATING A BIT FROM LUFKIN TO SHREVEPORT...TO MINDEN AND NEAR RUSTON. UPPER 70S ARE JUST A TAD BEHIND THE GOING 16Z FORECAST GRIDDED DATA. LEADING EDGES ARE ALREADY CHANGING WITH HEATING ON THE FRINGES. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS AT THIS TIME...JUST PERHAPS HOW SOON WE ARRIVE. THE SHORT RANGE HRRR MODEL IS QUITE REASONABLE WITH EXPECTATIONS FOR THE DAY ON QPF AND CURRENT POPS REFLECT THIS WELL. UPDATE SENT FOR SKY ONLY. WE MAY EVEN CLEAN UP MORNING WORDING AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. /24/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/ AVIATION... INCREASED MOISTURE TODAY TO ALLOW FOR VFR CEILINGS AREA WIDE BY 28/00Z. SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. COULD ALSO SEE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS TXK/ELD THIS MORNING AND LFK/MLU/ED ON MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TO PREVAIL TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. /05/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/ .DISCUSSION... AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SE TX COAST. A SFC LOW IS ALSO IN THE VICINITY JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH INTO THE REGION BY THESE TWO FEATURES. AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-30 TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS THAN AN INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL BUT THE RICH GULF MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY AREAS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE PROLONGED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT A FEW LINGER SHWRS/TSTMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SRN PLAINS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT OUR FIRST FALL COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER AND ACTUALLY DIGS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH MUCH FARTHER NORTH. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS PRESENT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP CHANCES SO WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. CLOUD COVER AND THE SHWRS/TSTMS MAY COOL TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT CLEARING SKIES AND THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM-UP BACK INTO THE 90S BY WEDNESDAY. /09/ .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 89 67 88 69 / 20 20 40 20 MLU 89 67 86 68 / 30 30 50 40 DEQ 87 65 87 65 / 10 10 20 20 TXK 88 65 87 67 / 10 20 30 20 ELD 88 65 86 66 / 20 20 50 30 TYR 91 67 88 68 / 10 20 30 20 GGG 90 66 88 68 / 10 20 40 20 LFK 86 68 85 67 / 30 30 50 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 24/05/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1147 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. TROF IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SFC COLD FRONTS. FIRST IS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI ATTM WHILE THE SECOND WHICH MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NOTABLY COLDER AIR RUNS FROM JAMES BAY TO JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IMPROVED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN UNDERNEATH HAS SUPPORTED AN EXPANSION OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE LEAD COLD FRONT TODAY...THOUGH THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH THUNDER THIS AFTN AFTER AN INCREASE DURING THE MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING COLD FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN S AND E THIS EVENING. WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PCPN FIELDS...UTILIZED A COMBINATION OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND RADAR TRENDS TO CONSTRUCT POP GRIDS THRU THE EVENING. LINGERING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK AS WELL AS SECOND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEPING SE MAY GENERATE A FEW -SHRA BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN TIED MORE CLOSELY TO FIRST COLD FRONT. THUS...SOME LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED AS LATE AS THE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL/SE. OTHERWISE...COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS CURRENTLY AT 10-13C WILL FALL TO -1C OVER THE KEWEENAW TO 7C FAR SCNTRL BY 12Z TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND 40F AND PROBABLY INTO THE UPPER 30S AT SOME HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER W AND NW UPPER MI. HIGHEST MINS WILL BE NEAR LAKE MI...UPPER 40S/AROUND 50F. ALTHOUGH THE SFC-850MB DELTA-T BTWN THE LAKE WATERS STILL IN THE MID/UPR 50S F IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE CLOUDS/PCPN...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY. SO...THE CHILLY AIR FLOW OVER THE LAKE PROBABLY WON`T SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN SCT CLOUDS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT -1 TO -2C TUE MORNING. WITH FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A VERY DRY AIR MASS FLOWING INTO THE UPPER LAKES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. IF ANYTHING...THE MOISTENING PROVIDED BY THE LAKE MAY PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER INLAND FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS ON THE MOISTURE. SHOULDN`T BE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F AND A RATHER BRISK NW WIND... ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 533 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR QUITE A WHILE /AT LEAST 10 DAYS/. WE BEGIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGE SFC HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH LOWER MI AND THE MS DELTA. FOR UPPER MI MAINLY ZONAL FLOW IS FIGURED ALOFT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE W HALF...MINUS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE POSTED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA IF THE CURRENT FCST HOLDS TRUE. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO LOWS OF 27-35F...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. STAY TUNED AS WINDS WILL BE CALM...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPS TO FALL ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST. 850MB TEMPS WILL E IN THE -1C RANGE OVER THE KEWEENAW E THROUGH THE N TIER COUNTIES...TO AS WARM AS 1.5-3C OVER MENOMINEE COUNTY /WARMEST OFF THE GFS/. FCST MODELS DO SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SET UP ACROSS S MANITOBA AT 00Z THURSDAY...BUT THE OVERALL STRENGTH IS DIFFERENT. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL GO ON ITS OWN...AND BEGIN TO RETROGRADE...WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT NE MORE INTO QUEBEC...THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVERHEAD. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE KEWEENAW SUNDAY...AND MAINLY JUST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT WILL NOT INCREASE THE POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS A DEEPER 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC RETROGRADING AS CLOSE AS THE E HALF OF QUEBEC BY 18Z SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AND IS MORE FOCUSED ON THE S 500MB LOW SPINNING OVER THE SE STATES. WILL KEEP A GENERAL BLEND UNTIL A MORE CONCRETE SOLUTION APPEARS. EITHER WAY...COOL WEATHER AND A MAINLY N FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS UPPER MI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1144 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 NW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT... ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 25KT. INCOMING CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TONIGHT/TUE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 WITH ONE COLD FRONT EXITING LAKE SUPERIOR NOW...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. PRES RISES ALONG WITH INCREASING OVERWATER INSTABILITY AS COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT TONIGHT AFTER THE SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 20-30KT RANGE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WRN LAKE AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT W TO E TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE ENE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE MAY BE SITUATED A LITTLE FARTHER N THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...EASTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME BRISK INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT TIMES DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-009-010-084. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
820 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. TROF IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SFC COLD FRONTS. FIRST IS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI ATTM WHILE THE SECOND WHICH MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NOTABLY COLDER AIR RUNS FROM JAMES BAY TO JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IMPROVED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN UNDERNEATH HAS SUPPORTED AN EXPANSION OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE LEAD COLD FRONT TODAY...THOUGH THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH THUNDER THIS AFTN AFTER AN INCREASE DURING THE MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING COLD FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN S AND E THIS EVENING. WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PCPN FIELDS...UTILIZED A COMBINATION OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND RADAR TRENDS TO CONSTRUCT POP GRIDS THRU THE EVENING. LINGERING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK AS WELL AS SECOND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEPING SE MAY GENERATE A FEW -SHRA BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN TIED MORE CLOSELY TO FIRST COLD FRONT. THUS...SOME LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED AS LATE AS THE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL/SE. OTHERWISE...COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS CURRENTLY AT 10-13C WILL FALL TO -1C OVER THE KEWEENAW TO 7C FAR SCNTRL BY 12Z TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND 40F AND PROBABLY INTO THE UPPER 30S AT SOME HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER W AND NW UPPER MI. HIGHEST MINS WILL BE NEAR LAKE MI...UPPER 40S/AROUND 50F. ALTHOUGH THE SFC-850MB DELTA-T BTWN THE LAKE WATERS STILL IN THE MID/UPR 50S F IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE CLOUDS/PCPN...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY. SO...THE CHILLY AIR FLOW OVER THE LAKE PROBABLY WON`T SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN SCT CLOUDS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT -1 TO -2C TUE MORNING. WITH FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A VERY DRY AIR MASS FLOWING INTO THE UPPER LAKES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. IF ANYTHING...THE MOISTENING PROVIDED BY THE LAKE MAY PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER INLAND FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS ON THE MOISTURE. SHOULDN`T BE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F AND A RATHER BRISK NW WIND... ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 533 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE THE FIRST STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR QUITE A WHILE /AT LEAST 10 DAYS/. WE BEGIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGE SFC HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH LOWER MI AND THE MS DELTA. FOR UPPER MI MAINLY ZONAL FLOW IS FIGURED ALOFT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE W HALF...MINUS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE POSTED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA IF THE CURRENT FCST HOLDS TRUE. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO LOWS OF 27-35F...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. STAY TUNED AS WINDS WILL BE CALM...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPS TO FALL ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST. 850MB TEMPS WILL E IN THE -1C RANGE OVER THE KEWEENAW E THROUGH THE N TIER COUNTIES...TO AS WARM AS 1.5-3C OVER MENOMINEE COUNTY /WARMEST OFF THE GFS/. FCST MODELS DO SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SET UP ACROSS S MANITOBA AT 00Z THURSDAY...BUT THE OVERALL STRENGTH IS DIFFERENT. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL GO ON ITS OWN...AND BEGIN TO RETROGRADE...WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT NE MORE INTO QUEBEC...THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVERHEAD. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE KEWEENAW SUNDAY...AND MAINLY JUST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT WILL NOT INCREASE THE POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS A DEEPER 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC RETROGRADING AS CLOSE AS THE E HALF OF QUEBEC BY 18Z SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AND IS MORE FOCUSED ON THE S 500MB LOW SPINNING OVER THE SE STATES. WILL KEEP A GENERAL BLEND UNTIL A MORE CONCRETE SOLUTION APPEARS. EITHER WAY...COOL WEATHER AND A MAINLY N FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS UPPER MI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 INCOMING DRIER AIR BEHIND INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED SHOWERS EAST AND CLEAREDG OUT LOW CLOUDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 25KT. INCOMING CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TONIGHT/TUE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 WITH ONE COLD FRONT EXITING LAKE SUPERIOR NOW...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. PRES RISES ALONG WITH INCREASING OVERWATER INSTABILITY AS COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT TONIGHT AFTER THE SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 20-30KT RANGE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WRN LAKE AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT W TO E TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE ENE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE MAY BE SITUATED A LITTLE FARTHER N THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...EASTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME BRISK INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT TIMES DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-009-010-084. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
717 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. STILL EXPECT A BAND OF PREDOMINANTLY RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE CHARACTER OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE ESRL EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LESS COVERAGE THAN THE OPERATIONAL NCEP HRRR DOES. INCLUDED THUNDER FOR OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AS SPC MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J PER KG EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MI. OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL BE LOW AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WELL AFTER PEAK INSOLATION. NO CONCERNS AFTER THIS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 DECIDED TO KEEP THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY THOUGH THERE ARE SOME CAVEATS TO THIS. FIRST...WITH SOMEWHAT MOIST H1000-H850 NE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY COMBINED WITH DECREASING H850 TEMPS...THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL LOWER MI DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP COMING OFF THE LAKE...BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE AS WE GET CLOSER. SECOND...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SENDING MIXED SIGNALS ON A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PRESENTLY IN THE GULF AS WELL AS TD 11 EAST OF FLORIDA. LAST NIGHT`S GEM SOLUTION BROUGHT THE GULF SYSTEM RIGHT INTO MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOT ON THE 12Z RUN. THE LATEST ECMWF BRINGS TD 11 NORTH AND THEN ABRUPTLY WEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A PRECIP SHIELD AS FAR WEST AS LOWER MI BY SATURDAY. THIS IS A DEVIATION FROM THE PRIOR RUN AS WELL AS OTHER MODEL RUNS. THERE IS NO CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKING INTO OUR REGION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. THE GFS AND FIM ARE INDICATING SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 15-20 KTS COMING OFF LAKE HURON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...IMPACTING AREAS ESPECIALLY EAST OF US 131. WITH H850 WINDS OF AROUND 25 KTS...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE AS WE SHOULD BE MIXING TO AROUND THAT HEIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NO FURTHER GIVEN THE CAA UNDERWAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE 60 FOR MANY AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE OCTOBER HAS ARRIVED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR TILL AROUND 09Z. AFTER THAT A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH MVFR/IRF CIGS AND A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT IS ABOUT 2 HOURS WIDE. THERE WILL BE A SLOW CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST AREA WILL BE SOLID VFR BY 18Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT TOO. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES WILL PERSIST MOST OF TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS...WAVES...AND TIMING IS MARGINALLY GOOD. LATEST WAVEWATCH 3 RUN IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS RUN. AS NOTED BEFORE... THE WHITEHALL TO GRAND HAVEN AREA MAY BE SHELTERED FROM THE LARGER WAVES BY THE SABLE POINTS TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE LEFT THIS AREA OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. THIS ADMITTEDLY MAY BE A BIT TOO PRECISE THIS FAR OUT...SO THIS AREA COULD GET ADDED TO THE ADVISORY WITH FUTURE UPDATES. A LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT HIGHER WAVES WILL PERSIST CONSIDERABLY LONGER SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN WITH THE FAVORABLE FETCH...ALLOWING POINTS FARTHER NORTH TO SEE AN EARLIER CANCELLATION. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES COULD END UP PERSISTING WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND SOUTH HAVEN AND POINTS FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION IN TIME OF THIS ADVISORY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1223 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 CURRENT STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ARE BOTH RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORECAST... AS LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ844>846-848-849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TJT SHORT TERM...TJT LONG TERM...HOVING AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...63 MARINE...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SW TO SE CANADA WHILE A TROF IS PROGRESSING THRU WRN CANADA. AT THE SFC...THE TROF IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL SD ACROSS FAR NW MN TO HUDSON BAY. SW FLOW BTWN THE COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAS LED TO ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE SEPT DAY TODAY. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI WITH A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AROUND 80F. FOG/STRATUS THAT WAS OVER CNTRL UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING BURNED OFF BY LATE MORNING. STRATOCU THAT WAS OVER IL/SE WI/LAKE MI EARLY TODAY HAS SPREAD N. WHILE STILL S OF KMNM...THE AREA OF MOISTURE HAS LED TO MORE CLOUD COVER FROM AROUND KISQ/KERY EASTWARD. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY. DURING THE SHORT TERM...FOCUS WILL BE ON CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING FOR VIEWING LUNAR ECLIPSE AND THEN PCPN POTENTIAL AS WRN CANADA TROF CONTINUES EASTWARD...PUSHING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MON. WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING...MODELS SHOW WINDS IN THE APPROACHING CLOUD BEARING LAYER (ROUGHLY 875-850MB) VEERING SOME TONIGHT. THUS...THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF THE STRATOCU APPROACHING FROM S SHOULD TEND TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH TIME. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF AN IRON MTN TO MUNISING LINE WILL HAVE THE MOST CLOUD COVER...POTENTIALLY OBSCURING MUCH OF THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS EVENING AT A FEW LOCATIONS. NAM IN PARTICULAR IS AGGRESSIVE IN MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS BLO STRATOCU LAYER FARTHER TO THE W...BUT DON`T THINK THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING EVEN IF IT IS CORRECT WITH THE MOISTURE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE ONLY VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN TIMING FRONT ACROSS THE AREA... REACHING THE W EARLY MON MORNING AND EXITING THE SE LATE AFTN. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SCT/CHC POPS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W. BIGGER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER THE UPPER JET CONFIGURATION WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN UNDERNEATH WILL BE SUFFICENT TO HELP DEVELOP A HEAVIER/MORE SOLID BAND OF SHRA JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA MON. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF IMPROVED FORCING LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA MON AFTN. WITH THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE LATEST RAP RUN ENDING AT 12Z MON APPEARING TO SUPPORT THAT IDEA AS IT HAS STRONGER FORCING DEVELOPING TO THE W AT THE END OF THE MODEL RUN...WILL RAISE POPS FOR MON...ESPECIALLY SCNTRL AND E WHERE LIKELY/NMRS WILL BE UTILIZED LATE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE MENTION. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS THAT MAY GRAZE FAR SERN UPPER MI IN THE FEW FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z TUE. THESE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE W AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD ON TUE. 18Z 850MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW 0C...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND E WILL MAKE THAT FEEL A BIT CHILLIER. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE E NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT...BUT WILL ALSO SHOW CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH AIR CONTINUES TO INTRUDE. THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER TUE NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 0C. PWATS DROP TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER AN ALREADY COOL DAY WILL MAKE FOR VERY COLD LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S...COLDEST INTERIOR OF COURSE. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS VALUES ARE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH LOOKS GOOD. FROST APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EVEN SOME SHORELINE AREAS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE E ON WED...AS WILL THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR 1-2 DEGREE WARMER MAX TEMPS THAN ON TUE...HIGHS AROUND 60. CONTINUED TO NOTE WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SAW IN MODEL TRENDS...DRYER WEATHER FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. CAN NOT BE TOO CONFIDENT...THOUGH...GIVEN VERY POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL TREND THE FORECAST DRYER. TEMPS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR THE LAST HALF. MIN TEMPS WILL BE TRICKIER GIVEN THE GREATER RELIANCE ON CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WED NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND AND WARMER NEAR THE SHORE. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST WED NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO GET CLOSER BEFORE ADDING THAT TO THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 THRU THE AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BUILDING MIXED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN GUSTY S TO SW WINDS TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTN. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE RESULTANT STABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN LLWS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF -SHRA. AROUND THE TIME OF FROPA OR JUST AFTER...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. SHOULDN`T LAST MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HRS AT EACH TERMINAL. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...S TO SW WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GUST TO AROUND 25KT TONIGHT...BUT UP TO 30KT AT THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND MON...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE W TO NW WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT. AN UPTICK IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT/TUE TO 20-30KT...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR FLOWING OVER THE LAKE AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 15KT W TO E TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE HIGH PRES WILL THEN DRIFT TO THE ENE WED THRU FRI...BUT WILL MAINTAIN RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS A RESULT...WHILE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME...SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY 20KT OR LESS DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
159 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT UPR RDG STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE GREAT LKS AND SE CANADA. SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING W FM HI CENTER NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS IS BRINGING MOCLR SKIES/DRY WX TO THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS DID SHOW SOME RELATIVELY SHALLOW MSTR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN...SO SOME PATCHY FOG/LO CLDS HAVE FORMED OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA WITH LLVL SSE FLOW OFF LK MI. WHERE THIS LLVL FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING OVER THE FAR W...TEMPS ARE NEAR AN UNSEASONABLY WARM 60 DEGREES DESPITE MOCLR SKIES. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...SOME HI CLDS ARE ROLLING E THRU MN WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FNT MOVING E THRU MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER SHEARED SHRTWV NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. OF GREATER INTEREST IS AREA OF HI BASED SC OVER THE LOWER LKS THAT IS MOVING NWD THRU SRN LK MI/SW LOWER MI/SE WI. MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/LO CLDS THIS MRNG...HOW FAR TO THE NW AREA OF CLDS IN THE LOWER LKS MIGHT SPREAD AND POPS LATE TNGT AHEAD OF COLD FNT NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS/SCENTRAL CANADA. TODAY...WITH LENGTHENING NIGHT AND LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS...EXPECT FOG/LO CLDS OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MRNG BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE MRNG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOST OF THE SHORTER TERM MODELS INDICATE AREA OF HIER H85 RH ASSOCIATED WITH SC MOVING TO THE N WL AT LEAST BRUSH THE SE CWA. AFTER THE MRNG FOG/STRATUS DSPT...EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CU/SC TO IMPACT THE SE COUNTIES AS SOME OF THIS MSTR ADVECTS OVER THE AREA. WHERE SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY OVER THE NW HALF...H85 TEMPS RISING TO ARND 14C WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN THE LO 80S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. WITH MORE CLDS AND THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI OVER THE SE...MAX TEMPS THERE WL HOLD NEAR 70. THE GREATER HEATING OVER ESPECIALLY THE NW HALF WL MIX 25- 30 KT WINDS TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25 MPH. IN CONCERT WITH MIN RH FALLING TO ARND 40 PCT...THESE GUSTY WINDS WL AGGRAVATE FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN SGNFT RAIN RECENTLY. TNGT...AS RATHER SHEARED OUT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TO NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z MON...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA ARND 12Z. SHEARED NATURE OF THE DISTURBANCE...ARRIVAL OF THE FNT DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WEAKER UPR DVGC THAN INDICATED BY SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS AND MARGINAL MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT WL LIMIT POPS INTO THE CHC RANGE AND ACCOMPANYING RA TOTALS. THE SE HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS FOR VIEWING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS EVNG...AREAS AWAY FM THE AT LEAST THE SE HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MOCLR IN THE EVNG BEFORE MORE CLDS ROLL IN AFTER MIDNGT AHEAD OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE AT SPREADING THE LLVL MSTR INTO THE CENTRAL...BUT VEERING SFC-H85 FLOW FCST BTWN 00Z-06Z SHOULD LIMIT THE NW EXPANSION OF THIS MSTR/CLDS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS THAT MAY GRAZE FAR SERN UPPER MI IN THE FEW FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z TUE. THESE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE W AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD ON TUE. 18Z 850MB TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW 0C...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND E WILL MAKE THAT FEEL A BIT CHILLIER. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE E NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT...BUT WILL ALSO SHOW CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH AIR CONTINUES TO INTRUDE. THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER TUE NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 0C. PWATS DROP TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER AN ALREADY COOL DAY WILL MAKE FOR VERY COLD LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S...COLDEST INTERIOR OF COURSE. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS VALUES ARE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH LOOKS GOOD. FROST APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EVEN SOME SHORELINE AREAS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE E ON WED...AS WILL THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR 1-2 DEGREE WARMER MAX TEMPS THAN ON TUE...HIGHS AROUND 60. CONTINUED TO NOTE WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SAW IN MODEL TRENDS...DRYER WEATHER FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. CAN NOT BE TOO CONFIDENT...THOUGH...GIVEN VERY POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL TREND THE FORECAST DRYER. TEMPS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR THE LAST HALF. MIN TEMPS WILL BE TRICKIER GIVEN THE GREATER RELIANCE ON CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WED NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST WITH LOWS POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND AND WARMER NEAR THE SHORE. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST WED NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO GET CLOSER BEFORE ADDING THAT TO THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 THRU THE AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BUILDING MIXED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN GUSTY S TO SW WINDS TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTN. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE RESULTANT STABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN LLWS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF -SHRA. AROUND THE TIME OF FROPA OR JUST AFTER...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. SHOULDN`T LAST MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HRS AT EACH TERMINAL. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY AFTN. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE HIGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
149 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT UPR RDG STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE GREAT LKS AND SE CANADA. SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING W FM HI CENTER NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS IS BRINGING MOCLR SKIES/DRY WX TO THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS DID SHOW SOME RELATIVELY SHALLOW MSTR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN...SO SOME PATCHY FOG/LO CLDS HAVE FORMED OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA WITH LLVL SSE FLOW OFF LK MI. WHERE THIS LLVL FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING OVER THE FAR W...TEMPS ARE NEAR AN UNSEASONABLY WARM 60 DEGREES DESPITE MOCLR SKIES. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...SOME HI CLDS ARE ROLLING E THRU MN WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FNT MOVING E THRU MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER SHEARED SHRTWV NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. OF GREATER INTEREST IS AREA OF HI BASED SC OVER THE LOWER LKS THAT IS MOVING NWD THRU SRN LK MI/SW LOWER MI/SE WI. MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/LO CLDS THIS MRNG...HOW FAR TO THE NW AREA OF CLDS IN THE LOWER LKS MIGHT SPREAD AND POPS LATE TNGT AHEAD OF COLD FNT NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS/SCENTRAL CANADA. TODAY...WITH LENGTHENING NIGHT AND LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS...EXPECT FOG/LO CLDS OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MRNG BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE MRNG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOST OF THE SHORTER TERM MODELS INDICATE AREA OF HIER H85 RH ASSOCIATED WITH SC MOVING TO THE N WL AT LEAST BRUSH THE SE CWA. AFTER THE MRNG FOG/STRATUS DSPT...EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CU/SC TO IMPACT THE SE COUNTIES AS SOME OF THIS MSTR ADVECTS OVER THE AREA. WHERE SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY OVER THE NW HALF...H85 TEMPS RISING TO ARND 14C WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN THE LO 80S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. WITH MORE CLDS AND THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI OVER THE SE...MAX TEMPS THERE WL HOLD NEAR 70. THE GREATER HEATING OVER ESPECIALLY THE NW HALF WL MIX 25- 30 KT WINDS TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25 MPH. IN CONCERT WITH MIN RH FALLING TO ARND 40 PCT...THESE GUSTY WINDS WL AGGRAVATE FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN SGNFT RAIN RECENTLY. TNGT...AS RATHER SHEARED OUT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TO NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z MON...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA ARND 12Z. SHEARED NATURE OF THE DISTURBANCE...ARRIVAL OF THE FNT DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WEAKER UPR DVGC THAN INDICATED BY SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS AND MARGINAL MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT WL LIMIT POPS INTO THE CHC RANGE AND ACCOMPANYING RA TOTALS. THE SE HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS FOR VIEWING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS EVNG...AREAS AWAY FM THE AT LEAST THE SE HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MOCLR IN THE EVNG BEFORE MORE CLDS ROLL IN AFTER MIDNGT AHEAD OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE AT SPREADING THE LLVL MSTR INTO THE CENTRAL...BUT VEERING SFC-H85 FLOW FCST BTWN 00Z-06Z SHOULD LIMIT THE NW EXPANSION OF THIS MSTR/CLDS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY THEN SLIDES OVER QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS REBOUND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL CANADA. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS UPR LAKES ON MONDAY IN A WEAKENING FASHION AS STRONGER PART OF THE FRONT STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTENING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF THE FROPA. SINCE THE FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER CWA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVER EAST AND SOUTH CWA IN THE AFTN...00Z GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL HAVE TRENDED BACK TO SHOWING QPF BREAKING OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH ARRIVAL OF SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EVEN THOUGH NAM SHOWS SIMILAR LARGER SCALE DYNAMICS THAT GFS/GEM/ECMWF SHOW...NAM IS MUCH DRIER BLO H7 AND DOES NOT GENERATE QPF BEYOND 00Z TUE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. THOUGH THINK THE NAM IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH OVERALL DRYING WORKING IN FM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...IT IS LIKELY TOO DRY GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE FORCING STILL PRESENT ON MONDAY NIGHT. A COMPROMISE BTWN THE GFS/GEM AND DRIER NAM WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CWA MONDAY EVENING SHOULD WORK ATTM. CAVEAT IS THAT THE MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR MONDAY NIGHT HAS BEEN POOR TO SAY THE LEAST AND THERE COULD BE MORE CHANGES EVEN THOUGH IT IS ONLY 36-48 HOURS OUT. CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN LATE OVER LK SUPERIOR AND FAR NORTH CWA. SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH. PWATS DOWN TO 0.25 INCHES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE HIGH POINT TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL SEE THEIR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT IN LOWERING TEMPS AND HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A BIT MORE. WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SUCH AS DRY AIRMASS...EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES COULD SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST. REST OF THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST BUT STAYS IN CONTROL OF WEATHER OVER GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO STAY IN CONTROL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FM WED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LIGHT BUT STEADY ESE-SE WINDS ON WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP LOWS FM GOING AS LOW AS TUE NIGHT THOUGH. CONSISTENCY IN THIS DRY PART OF THIS SOLUTION IS LACKING THOUGH AS PREVIOUS RUNS IN LAST COUPLE DAYS WERE MUCH MORE EMPHATIC ON BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN BACK TO UPPER GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY THU INTO FRI. MODELS SHOW NOTHING OF THE SORT NOW. AS MUCH AS WE COULD USE THE RAIN...THE DRIER SCENARIO DOES SEEM MORE PLAUSIBLE WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND RESULTING EASTERLY WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH PRECIP DEFICTS ALREADY PUSHING 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF ESPECIALLY CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH OUT FOR ANY DAYS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE LEAVES BEGIN TO COME OFF THE TREES THE HAZARD WILL ONLY INCREASE UNTIL A WIDESPREAD RAIN MATERIALIZES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 THRU THE AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BUILDING MIXED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN GUSTY S TO SW WINDS TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTN. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE RESULTANT STABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN LLWS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF -SHRA. AROUND THE TIME OF FROPA OR JUST AFTER...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. SHOULDN`T LAST MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HRS AT EACH TERMINAL. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY AFTN. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE HIGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
738 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT UPR RDG STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE GREAT LKS AND SE CANADA. SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING W FM HI CENTER NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS IS BRINGING MOCLR SKIES/DRY WX TO THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS DID SHOW SOME RELATIVELY SHALLOW MSTR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN...SO SOME PATCHY FOG/LO CLDS HAVE FORMED OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA WITH LLVL SSE FLOW OFF LK MI. WHERE THIS LLVL FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING OVER THE FAR W...TEMPS ARE NEAR AN UNSEASONABLY WARM 60 DEGREES DESPITE MOCLR SKIES. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...SOME HI CLDS ARE ROLLING E THRU MN WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FNT MOVING E THRU MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER SHEARED SHRTWV NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. OF GREATER INTEREST IS AREA OF HI BASED SC OVER THE LOWER LKS THAT IS MOVING NWD THRU SRN LK MI/SW LOWER MI/SE WI. MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/LO CLDS THIS MRNG...HOW FAR TO THE NW AREA OF CLDS IN THE LOWER LKS MIGHT SPREAD AND POPS LATE TNGT AHEAD OF COLD FNT NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS/SCENTRAL CANADA. TODAY...WITH LENGTHENING NIGHT AND LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS...EXPECT FOG/LO CLDS OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MRNG BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE MRNG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOST OF THE SHORTER TERM MODELS INDICATE AREA OF HIER H85 RH ASSOCIATED WITH SC MOVING TO THE N WL AT LEAST BRUSH THE SE CWA. AFTER THE MRNG FOG/STRATUS DSPT...EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CU/SC TO IMPACT THE SE COUNTIES AS SOME OF THIS MSTR ADVECTS OVER THE AREA. WHERE SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY OVER THE NW HALF...H85 TEMPS RISING TO ARND 14C WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN THE LO 80S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. WITH MORE CLDS AND THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI OVER THE SE...MAX TEMPS THERE WL HOLD NEAR 70. THE GREATER HEATING OVER ESPECIALLY THE NW HALF WL MIX 25- 30 KT WINDS TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25 MPH. IN CONCERT WITH MIN RH FALLING TO ARND 40 PCT...THESE GUSTY WINDS WL AGGRAVATE FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN SGNFT RAIN RECENTLY. TNGT...AS RATHER SHEARED OUT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TO NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z MON...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA ARND 12Z. SHEARED NATURE OF THE DISTURBANCE...ARRIVAL OF THE FNT DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WEAKER UPR DVGC THAN INDICATED BY SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS AND MARGINAL MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT WL LIMIT POPS INTO THE CHC RANGE AND ACCOMPANYING RA TOTALS. THE SE HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS FOR VIEWING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS EVNG...AREAS AWAY FM THE AT LEAST THE SE HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MOCLR IN THE EVNG BEFORE MORE CLDS ROLL IN AFTER MIDNGT AHEAD OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE AT SPREADING THE LLVL MSTR INTO THE CENTRAL...BUT VEERING SFC-H85 FLOW FCST BTWN 00Z-06Z SHOULD LIMIT THE NW EXPANSION OF THIS MSTR/CLDS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY THEN SLIDES OVER QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS REBOUND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL CANADA. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS UPR LAKES ON MONDAY IN A WEAKENING FASHION AS STRONGER PART OF THE FRONT STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTENING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF THE FROPA. SINCE THE FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER CWA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVER EAST AND SOUTH CWA IN THE AFTN...00Z GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL HAVE TRENDED BACK TO SHOWING QPF BREAKING OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH ARRIVAL OF SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EVEN THOUGH NAM SHOWS SIMILAR LARGER SCALE DYNAMICS THAT GFS/GEM/ECMWF SHOW...NAM IS MUCH DRIER BLO H7 AND DOES NOT GENERATE QPF BEYOND 00Z TUE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. THOUGH THINK THE NAM IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH OVERALL DRYING WORKING IN FM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...IT IS LIKELY TOO DRY GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE FORCING STILL PRESENT ON MONDAY NIGHT. A COMPROMISE BTWN THE GFS/GEM AND DRIER NAM WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CWA MONDAY EVENING SHOULD WORK ATTM. CAVEAT IS THAT THE MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR MONDAY NIGHT HAS BEEN POOR TO SAY THE LEAST AND THERE COULD BE MORE CHANGES EVEN THOUGH IT IS ONLY 36-48 HOURS OUT. CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN LATE OVER LK SUPERIOR AND FAR NORTH CWA. SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH. PWATS DOWN TO 0.25 INCHES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE HIGH POINT TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL SEE THEIR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT IN LOWERING TEMPS AND HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A BIT MORE. WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SUCH AS DRY AIRMASS...EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES COULD SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST. REST OF THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST BUT STAYS IN CONTROL OF WEATHER OVER GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO STAY IN CONTROL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FM WED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LIGHT BUT STEADY ESE-SE WINDS ON WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP LOWS FM GOING AS LOW AS TUE NIGHT THOUGH. CONSISTENCY IN THIS DRY PART OF THIS SOLUTION IS LACKING THOUGH AS PREVIOUS RUNS IN LAST COUPLE DAYS WERE MUCH MORE EMPHATIC ON BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN BACK TO UPPER GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY THU INTO FRI. MODELS SHOW NOTHING OF THE SORT NOW. AS MUCH AS WE COULD USE THE RAIN...THE DRIER SCENARIO DOES SEEM MORE PLAUSIBLE WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND RESULTING EASTERLY WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH PRECIP DEFICTS ALREADY PUSHING 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF ESPECIALLY CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH OUT FOR ANY DAYS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE LEAVES BEGIN TO COME OFF THE TREES THE HAZARD WILL ONLY INCREASE UNTIL A WIDESPREAD RAIN MATERIALIZES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 CONTINUE TO HAVE A COMMS ISSUE AT IWD. THE APPROPRIATE OWNER HAS BEEN NOTIFIED...WITH A FIX IN THE WORKS. IN THE MEANTIME AMD NOT SKED WL BE APPENDED TO THE TAF. WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...MRNG FOG/LO CLDS AT SAW WL MIX OUT AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. THIS DAYTIME MIXING WL ALSO END LLWS AND ALLOW FOR GUSTY SW WINDS AT THE SFC. CMX AND IWD WL BE VFR. THE GUSTY WINDS WL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVNG WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE RESULTANT STABILIZATION WL RESULT IN MORE LLWS TNGT. SCT -SHRA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FNT WL ARRIVE AT IWD AND CMX OVERNGT TNGT. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FNT...AN UPSLOPE WNW WIND WL LIKELY BRING MVFR CIGS TO BOTH THOSE LOCATIONS. SAW SHOULD REMAIN VFR THRU THE NGT WELL AHEAD OF THE FNT. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY AFTN. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE HIGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...KC MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT UPR RDG STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE GREAT LKS AND SE CANADA. SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING W FM HI CENTER NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS IS BRINGING MOCLR SKIES/DRY WX TO THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS DID SHOW SOME RELATIVELY SHALLOW MSTR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN...SO SOME PATCHY FOG/LO CLDS HAVE FORMED OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA WITH LLVL SSE FLOW OFF LK MI. WHERE THIS LLVL FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING OVER THE FAR W...TEMPS ARE NEAR AN UNSEASONABLY WARM 60 DEGREES DESPITE MOCLR SKIES. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...SOME HI CLDS ARE ROLLING E THRU MN WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FNT MOVING E THRU MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER SHEARED SHRTWV NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. OF GREATER INTEREST IS AREA OF HI BASED SC OVER THE LOWER LKS THAT IS MOVING NWD THRU SRN LK MI/SW LOWER MI/SE WI. MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/LO CLDS THIS MRNG...HOW FAR TO THE NW AREA OF CLDS IN THE LOWER LKS MIGHT SPREAD AND POPS LATE TNGT AHEAD OF COLD FNT NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS/SCENTRAL CANADA. TODAY...WITH LENGTHENING NIGHT AND LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS...EXPECT FOG/LO CLDS OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MRNG BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE MRNG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOST OF THE SHORTER TERM MODELS INDICATE AREA OF HIER H85 RH ASSOCIATED WITH SC MOVING TO THE N WL AT LEAST BRUSH THE SE CWA. AFTER THE MRNG FOG/STRATUS DSPT...EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CU/SC TO IMPACT THE SE COUNTIES AS SOME OF THIS MSTR ADVECTS OVER THE AREA. WHERE SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY OVER THE NW HALF...H85 TEMPS RISING TO ARND 14C WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN THE LO 80S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. WITH MORE CLDS AND THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI OVER THE SE...MAX TEMPS THERE WL HOLD NEAR 70. THE GREATER HEATING OVER ESPECIALLY THE NW HALF WL MIX 25- 30 KT WINDS TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25 MPH. IN CONCERT WITH MIN RH FALLING TO ARND 40 PCT...THESE GUSTY WINDS WL AGGRAVATE FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN SGNFT RAIN RECENTLY. TNGT...AS RATHER SHEARED OUT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TO NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z MON...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA ARND 12Z. SHEARED NATURE OF THE DISTURBANCE...ARRIVAL OF THE FNT DURING PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WEAKER UPR DVGC THAN INDICATED BY SOME RECENT MODEL RUNS AND MARGINAL MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT WL LIMIT POPS INTO THE CHC RANGE AND ACCOMPANYING RA TOTALS. THE SE HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS FOR VIEWING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS EVNG...AREAS AWAY FM THE AT LEAST THE SE HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN MOCLR IN THE EVNG BEFORE MORE CLDS ROLL IN AFTER MIDNGT AHEAD OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE AT SPREADING THE LLVL MSTR INTO THE CENTRAL...BUT VEERING SFC-H85 FLOW FCST BTWN 00Z-06Z SHOULD LIMIT THE NW EXPANSION OF THIS MSTR/CLDS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY THEN SLIDES OVER QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS REBOUND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL CANADA. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS UPR LAKES ON MONDAY IN A WEAKENING FASHION AS STRONGER PART OF THE FRONT STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTENING IN THE H8-H7 LAYER WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF THE FROPA. SINCE THE FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER CWA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVER EAST AND SOUTH CWA IN THE AFTN...00Z GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL HAVE TRENDED BACK TO SHOWING QPF BREAKING OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH ARRIVAL OF SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EVEN THOUGH NAM SHOWS SIMILAR LARGER SCALE DYNAMICS THAT GFS/GEM/ECMWF SHOW...NAM IS MUCH DRIER BLO H7 AND DOES NOT GENERATE QPF BEYOND 00Z TUE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. THOUGH THINK THE NAM IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH OVERALL DRYING WORKING IN FM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...IT IS LIKELY TOO DRY GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE FORCING STILL PRESENT ON MONDAY NIGHT. A COMPROMISE BTWN THE GFS/GEM AND DRIER NAM WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CWA MONDAY EVENING SHOULD WORK ATTM. CAVEAT IS THAT THE MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR MONDAY NIGHT HAS BEEN POOR TO SAY THE LEAST AND THERE COULD BE MORE CHANGES EVEN THOUGH IT IS ONLY 36-48 HOURS OUT. CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN LATE OVER LK SUPERIOR AND FAR NORTH CWA. SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH. PWATS DOWN TO 0.25 INCHES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH THE HIGH POINT TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL SEE THEIR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT IN LOWERING TEMPS AND HAVE TWEAKED DOWN A BIT MORE. WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SUCH AS DRY AIRMASS...EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES COULD SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST. REST OF THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST BUT STAYS IN CONTROL OF WEATHER OVER GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO STAY IN CONTROL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FM WED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LIGHT BUT STEADY ESE-SE WINDS ON WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH SHOULD KEEP LOWS FM GOING AS LOW AS TUE NIGHT THOUGH. CONSISTENCY IN THIS DRY PART OF THIS SOLUTION IS LACKING THOUGH AS PREVIOUS RUNS IN LAST COUPLE DAYS WERE MUCH MORE EMPHATIC ON BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN BACK TO UPPER GREAT LAKES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY THU INTO FRI. MODELS SHOW NOTHING OF THE SORT NOW. AS MUCH AS WE COULD USE THE RAIN...THE DRIER SCENARIO DOES SEEM MORE PLAUSIBLE WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND RESULTING EASTERLY WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH PRECIP DEFICTS ALREADY PUSHING 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF ESPECIALLY CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN FIRE WEATHER ISSUES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH OUT FOR ANY DAYS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ONCE LEAVES BEGIN TO COME OFF THE TREES THE HAZARD WILL ONLY INCREASE UNTIL A WIDESPREAD RAIN MATERIALIZES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1153 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015 THE INFLUENCE OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY (AT OR ABOVE 20 KT) SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD AND KSAW. INCLUDED LLWS INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AS LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY AFTN. WINDS BECOME LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE HIGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 AS OF 3PM THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS JUST NORTHWEST OF ALEXANDRIA. BASED ON LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE AND CURRENT POSITION...SLIGHTLY SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING IN THE GOING FORECAST...BY JUST AN HOUR OR TWO. AS FAR AS CLOUD COVER FOR VIEWING THE ECLIPSE IS CONCERNED...STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW CLOUDS COULD REACH THE METRO CLOSER TO 11PM-12AM...BUT SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR VIEWING. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLOUD COVER. BASED ON ITS TREND...AREAS FROM REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH ST CLOUD AND WEST OF THERE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE ECLIPSE. SOME OF THE CAMS SHOWED DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE MINNESOTA PORTION OF THE FA DRY TONIGHT...WITH THE MOISTURE FINALLY ENOUGH IN WESTERN WI AFTER MIDNIGHT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP...THEN LIGHTING UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ADDITION SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM WEST CENTRAL WI NEAR EAU CLAIRE...THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN /NEAR ALBERT LEA/. NAM SHOWED BEST LI`S BECOMING NEGATIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF CAPE...ENOUGH FOR ADDING A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...A STRONG HIGH WILL BE POISED TO PLUNGE INTO OUR AREA WITH RAPID DRYING AND CLEARING SKIES IN CENTRAL MN BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE DROP IN DEW POINTS WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...DEW POINTS WILL BE NEAR 40 NEAR ALEXANDRIA...WITH UPPER 40S DEW POINTS WORKING INTO THE METRO...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 ONE THING THAT HAS NOT CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY WITH ANY OF THE MODELS AS SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS. THE MAIN POLAR JET WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT RETREATS TO THE NORTH UP ACROSS THE CANADIAN ARCTIC...WITH A WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN CONUS. THIS WEAKENING OF THE JETS RESULTS IN A WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN IN WHICH THE GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO HANDLE WHERE UPPER HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE CUT-OFF FROM THE FLOW. IN GENERAL THOUGH THE DEFINITE TREND WE HAVE SEEN WITH THE MODELS IS THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC AS A CLOSED HIGH DEVELOPS OVER NRN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO. THIS BECOMES THE PERFECT UPPER AIR SETUP FOR DEVELOPING A HUDSON HIGH AT THE SFC...WHICH IS WHAT BOTH MODELS SHOW. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A VERY DRY SE FLOW MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE PRECIP WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS TO START CONSIDERABLY CUTTING BACK POPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH IF THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE DOWN THE SAME ROAD...WE COULD PROBABLY CUT THEM EVEN FURTHER WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. FOR THE FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE LINGERING PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 12Z MODELS THOUGH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THAT AREA OF PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA PRETTY QUICK MONDAY EVENING...SO WENT PRETTY MUCH DRY WITH THE FORECAST AFTER 3Z TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WE WILL SEE A COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. DEWPOINTS WILL BE FALLING BACK INTO AT LEAST THE 30S AND WE WILL LIKELY MIX SOME 20S DOWN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL LEAD TO OUR COOLEST MORNING OF THE FALL THUS FAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WRN WI /CLOSEST TO THE HIGH CENTER/ WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S...WITH THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON LOOKING LIKE A POSSIBILITY OUT AROUND LADYSMITH. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...OUR H85 TEMPS LOOK TO HANG OUT BETWEEN +4 AND +8C WHICH TRANSLATES NICELY TO HIGHS IN THE 60S. BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HUDSON HIGH...WE WILL ALSO SEE COOL MORNINGS...WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S EVERY NIGHT...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR FROST COMING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP ON A NIGHTLY BASIS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SET TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. TIMED WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND FRONT POSITION...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE FROPA...WITH BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. KMSP...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH CLOSE TO 12Z MONDAY...WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY AT FIRST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY. LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP...COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IMPACTING MSP WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. N WIND 5-10KT. WED...VFR. SE 5-15KT. THU...VFR. SE 5-10KT. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPD LONG TERM...MPG AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1040 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON OVER SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SOME BRIEF PEAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE A BETTER BLANKET OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES NORTH FROM THE COAST. THIS IS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW...ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A MID/UPPER LOW ACROSS EAST TEXAS...HAS HELPED STREAM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 12 -18 HOURS. THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING INDICATES 1.7 INCH PW VALUES...WHICH IS UP SUBSTANTIALLY FROM 1.1 INCHES JUST LAST NIGHT. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA AND EVEN SOUTH OF THE GULF COASTLINE BUT SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH INTO SOUTH/SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA. IT ISNT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING DEVELOPS. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR REMAIN MEAGER BUT THERE IS A SMALL AREA IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER SHEAR IS FORECAST AND COULD SEE A BRIEF STRONGER STORM HERE WHICH IS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN THAT CAN MOVE NORTH WILL GREATLY LIMIT WARMING OUTSIDE OF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SOME IN THE DELTA WHERE WARMING HAS BEEN SLOWER THIS MORNING. OVERALL...WE SHOULD STAY IN THE 80S TODAY WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND GOING POPS SEEM TO INDICATE THIS WELL. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS MADE WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT HOURLY TRENDS. /28/ && .AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. INCREASING MOISTURE...RESULTING IN LOWERING CEILINGS AND SHRA CHANCES...WILL BE GREATEST NEAR HBG THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. /27/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/ DISCUSSION... TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE CENTRAL TX COAST. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW IS TRANSPORTING AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN REGION NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION (PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES). AS SURFACE PRESSURES GRADUALLY LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT INCREASES OVER THE ARKLAMISS...EXPECT SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS PARTICULAR IN THE TIME FRAME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. BUT IT APPEARS THAT GREATER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL STAY MORE FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR GETTING MORE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER JET SUPPORT IS EXPECTED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUCH TIMING IS PRETTY LOW RIGHT NOW GIVEN AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MESOSCALE INFLUENCES TO DICTATE OUR WEATHER. RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH WITH RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL IN THE PINE BELT REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER THAN RECENTLY EXPERIENCED...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /EC/ TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MODELS AGREE THAT DECENT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THE RAIN. THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. THE PWAT OVER OUR CWA WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES TUESDAY AND LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAIN DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AND WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST AND LOOKS TO REMAIN PINNED ALONG THE GULF COAST AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF MISSISSIPPI BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR REGION. PWATS WILL BE BACK BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOWERING SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY THURSDAY EVENING. OUR PWATS WILL BE DOWN TO NEAR AND INCH BY FRIDAY MORNING. THUS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN BACK OVER OUR REGION. THURSDAY. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF CONCERNING SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...OVER OUR CWA...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PREVIOUS AND LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF WITH SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN ARE NORTH OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 85 68 81 68 / 46 60 70 53 MERIDIAN 83 67 80 68 / 48 66 67 62 VICKSBURG 85 68 84 68 / 45 47 63 51 HATTIESBURG 85 69 83 69 / 73 58 64 51 NATCHEZ 85 68 82 68 / 64 43 60 40 GREENVILLE 85 69 83 68 / 20 40 70 53 GREENWOOD 85 67 82 67 / 20 46 70 59 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ 28/27/EC/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
457 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .DISCUSSION... TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE CENTRAL TX COAST. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW IS TRANSPORTING AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN REGION NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION (PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES). AS SURFACE PRESSURES GRADUALLY LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT INCREASES OVER THE ARKLAMISS...EXPECT SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS PARTICULAR IN THE TIME FRAME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. BUT IT APPEARS THAT GREATER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL STAY MORE FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR GETTING MORE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER JET SUPPORT IS EXPECTED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUCH TIMING IS PRETTY LOW RIGHT NOW GIVEN AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MESOSCALE INFLUENCES TO DICTATE OUR WEATHER. RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH WITH RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL IN THE PINE BELT REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER THAN RECENTLY EXPERIENCED...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /EC/ TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MODELS AGREE THAT DECENT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THE RAIN. THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. THE PWAT OVER OUR CWA WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES TUESDAY AND LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAIN DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AND WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST AND LOOKS TO REMAIN PINNED ALONG THE GULF COAST AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF MISSISSIPPI BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR REGION. PWATS WILL BE BACK BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOWERING SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY THURSDAY EVENING. OUR PWATS WILL BE DOWN TO NEAR AND INCH BY FRIDAY MORNING. THUS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN BACK OVER OUR REGION. THURSDAY. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF CONCERNING SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...OVER OUR CWA...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PREVIOUS AND LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF WITH SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN ARE NORTH OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /22/ && .AVIATION...SOME MORNING IFR CATEGORY STRATUS COULD STILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE GTR/MEI/HBG CORRIDOR. IF SO...EXPECT IT TO MIX UP INTO THE MVFR/VFR CATEGORIES LATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THEREAFTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHRA CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST NEAR HBG LATE TODAY...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 85 68 81 68 / 39 60 70 53 MERIDIAN 83 67 80 68 / 48 66 67 62 VICKSBURG 86 68 84 68 / 50 47 63 51 HATTIESBURG 85 69 83 69 / 52 58 64 51 NATCHEZ 83 68 82 68 / 53 43 60 40 GREENVILLE 86 69 83 68 / 23 40 70 53 GREENWOOD 86 67 82 67 / 27 46 70 59 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ /EC/22/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
952 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 .UPDATE: Issued at 943 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015 Updated forecast to bring scattered showers northwest of I-44 in Missouri and I-70 in Illinois. Showers have persisted this evening in area of low level moisture convergence underneath mid level trough axis extending northward from upper low currently over the Lower Mississippi Valley. CAMS are showing that these showers will persist through the night, so expanded the PoPs accordingly. Temperatures will likely not fall off too much tonight given the clouds and current dewpoints. Britt && .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015 Forecast area continues to get squeezed between upper level shortwave energy that is retrograding back to the north towards forecast area and next cold front moving in from the northwest. Showers currently trying to move into our far southern counties as of 20z. So will initially see isolated/scattered showers develop and advect north into forecast area through this evening and into the overnight hours. In the meantime, cold front will move closer to region from the northwest, but will not see any precipitation from it until after 12z Tuesday, just an increase in cloud cover. Because of this weather pattern, winds will be light and variable. As for overnight lows, once again to remain about 10 degrees above normal, in the low to mid 60s. Byrd .LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015 FA will remain on the northern fringes of the upper low drifting into the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow, while upper trof pushing into the upper Great Lakes will allow cold front that approaching northern sections of the FA late tonight to ooze across the region during the day. Some PoPs will be tied to both these features, but I`m really not sure that the 12z based MOS from either the NAM or GFS have a real good handle on the expected precip threat and/or trends. Mass and moisture fields would certainly suggest that southeast sections of the CWA will be on the northern fringes of the precip associated with the southern system on Tuesday, which also suggests that some MOS numbers in this section of the FA may be a bit too high (and this has certainly been the case for the past several days). However, the last few hours of the last several HRRR runs suggest precip blossoming very late tonight as far north to near the I44-I70 corridor...roughly near the northern trofing associated with the upper low. I have upped PoPs some over the southeast half of the CWA, but ultimately expect a pretty sharp PoP gradient that will be resolved in the nowcast time frame. Meanwhile across the north, expect a fairly large band of showers along and especially north of the cold front just north of our FA early Tuesday, with the showers working southeast and gradually diminishing in coverage with time as the cold front works across the region. Some low post-frontal shower threat will likely linger into the evening hours before the drier air behind the front scours out the low level moisture. The latest 12z guidance is continuing the trend of the last few days of being more bullish deepening the UA trof over the eastern CONUS during the latter half of the week, which in turn allows for a stronger intrusion of the Canadian high into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Based on progged 850MB thermal profiles, temperatures will have a decidely autumn feel...with highs dropping into the 60s and lows tumbling into the 40s across the entire region Friday-Sunday. With the high progged to exert greater dominance in the weather over the region, it would appear that precip chances will be fairly low. Specifics in the medium range UA progs are hard to pin down as solutions are noisy and chaotic to say the least...but there does seem to be some agreement that WAA will develop over the Plains Friday night, with associated shower threat possibly working into western/sw portions of the FA Sat-Sun. Truett && .AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015 Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Expect light and variable winds until after 10z when a cold front will move into the region. Winds will turn northerly to northeasterly behind the front and increase above 10 kts. Post-frontal MVFR stratus is expected and some sprinkles are possible. Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Expect light and variable winds until after 12z when a cold front will move into the region. Winds turn northerly to northeasterly behind the front and increase above 10 kts. Post-frontal MVFR stratus is expected and some sprinkles are possible. 42 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
638 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015 Forecast area continues to get squeezed between upper level shortwave energy that is retrograding back to the north towards forecast area and next cold front moving in from the northwest. Showers currently trying to move into our far southern counties as of 20z. So will initially see isolated/scattered showers develop and advect north into forecast area through this evening and into the overnight hours. In the meantime, cold front will move closer to region from the northwest, but will not see any precipitation from it until after 12z Tuesday, just an increase in cloud cover. Because of this weather pattern, winds will be light and variable. As for overnight lows, once again to remain about 10 degrees above normal, in the low to mid 60s. Byrd .LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015 FA will remain on the northern fringes of the upper low drifting into the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow, while upper trof pushing into the upper Great Lakes will allow cold front that approaching northern sections of the FA late tonight to ooze across the region during the day. Some PoPs will be tied to both these features, but I`m really not sure that the 12z based MOS from either the NAM or GFS have a real good handle on the expected precip threat and/or trends. Mass and moisture fields would certainly suggest that southeast sections of the CWA will be on the northern fringes of the precip associated with the southern system on Tuesday, which also suggests that some MOS numbers in this section of the FA may be a bit too high (and this has certainly been the case for the past several days). However, the last few hours of the last several HRRR runs suggest precip blossoming very late tonight as far north to near the I44-I70 corridor...roughly near the northern trofing associated with the upper low. I have upped PoPs some over the southeast half of the CWA, but ultimately expect a pretty sharp PoP gradient that will be resolved in the nowcast time frame. Meanwhile across the north, expect a fairly large band of showers along and especially north of the cold front just north of our FA early Tuesday, with the showers working southeast and gradually diminishing in coverage with time as the cold front works across the region. Some low post-frontal shower threat will likely linger into the evening hours before the drier air behind the front scours out the low level moisture. The latest 12z guidance is continuing the trend of the last few days of being more bullish deepening the UA trof over the eastern CONUS during the latter half of the week, which in turn allows for a stronger intrusion of the Canadian high into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Based on progged 850MB thermal profiles, temperatures will have a decidely autumn feel...with highs dropping into the 60s and lows tumbling into the 40s across the entire region Friday-Sunday. With the high progged to exert greater dominance in the weather over the region, it would appear that precip chances will be fairly low. Specifics in the medium range UA progs are hard to pin down as solutions are noisy and chaotic to say the least...but there does seem to be some agreement that WAA will develop over the Plains Friday night, with associated shower threat possibly working into western/sw portions of the FA Sat-Sun. Truett && .AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening) Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015 Specifics for KCOU, KUIN: Expect light and variable winds until after 10z when a cold front will move into the region. Winds will turn northerly to northeasterly behind the front and increase above 10 kts. Post-frontal MVFR stratus is expected and some sprinkles are possible. Specifics for KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: Expect light and variable winds until after 12z when a cold front will move into the region. Winds turn northerly to northeasterly behind the front and increase above 10 kts. Post-frontal MVFR stratus is expected and some sprinkles are possible. 42 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
705 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2015 This morning`s water vapor imagery along with 500mb heights and vorticity indicates a chain of weak vorticity extending from Lake Michigan southwest into northeast and central Missouri. Weak low level moisture convergence today, combined with this vort chain should produce widely scattered showers across the area. All guidance members produce widespread light qpf to a greater or lesser extent, and explicit convective models like the NCEP and NSSL WRF as well as the HRRR show widely scattered showers developing during the late morning or early afternoon. MOS PoPs still look over done, so have kept 20-30% going for now. Temperatures in the mid to upper 70s look reasonable given the warm south-southeast flow, but with more cloud cover than yesterday to keep temperatures below 80 for the most part. Carney .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2015 There is a good model consensus on northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across our region thru at least Thursday. This will make it very favorable for a surface cold front to drop down thru on late Monday night or Tuesday and cooler air to infiltrate for much of mid- week. Prior to that, it looks like above average temps to continue thru Monday and probably into Tuesday for most areas as the cooler air is still working its way in on that day. High pressure associated with the cooler airmass for mid-week will then be slow to pull out and should keep our region in near seasonable temps heading into next weekend. Looking at rain chances, models show a slightly less favorable setup for showers on Monday from today, but considering how showers have struggled since the system has weakened and moved away from its primary moisture source in the Atlantic, will elect to maintain a dry forecast for now. A better chance for rain looks to be on the backside of the cold front later on Tuesday, but even then not great. Rain chances then start to get muddled as we head deeper into the week, especially next weekend. The models vaguely maintain the NW flow aloft but with more significant systems potentially starting to ride it down into our area. Location is all over the place with little to piece a good consensus on. For now, will heavily weight the forecast for late week and next weekend on CLIMO and favor max temps in the 70s and slight chance PoPs until a clearer signal is seen. TES && .AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning) Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2015 A broad area of VFR ceilings is blanketing the area this morning, with patches of MVFR clouds around 2,500 FT. Any MVFR ceilings should gradually rise through mid-late morning to VFR with at least some partial clearing between 00Z and 15Z. Isolated showers will also affect the area today, but I don`t expect these showers to be heavy enouh or wide spread enough to be a serious impact to airport operations. Specifics for KSTL: VFR ceilings will likely continue to prevail through much of the day at Lambert. There are some lower clouds in the area with bases around 2,500 FT. These MVFR clouds should lift by 15-16Z. Isolated showers aer possible today as well...primarily in the afternoon. Showers should be very light and will likely not cause any impact to airport operations. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
330 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2015 This morning`s water vapor imagery along with 500mb heights and vorticity indicates a chain of weak vorticity extending from Lake Michigan southwest into northeast and central Missouri. Weak low level moisture convergence today, combined with this vort chain should produce widely scattered showers across the area. All guidance members produce widespread light qpf to a greater or lesser extent, and explicit convective models like the NCEP and NSSL WRF as well as the HRRR show widely scattered showers developing during the late morning or early afternoon. MOS PoPs still look over done, so have kept 20-30% going for now. Temperatures in the mid to upper 70s look reasonable given the warm south-southeast flow, but with more cloud cover than yesterday to keep temperatures below 80 for the most part. Carney .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2015 There is a good model consensus on northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across our region thru at least Thursday. This will make it very favorable for a surface cold front to drop down thru on late Monday night or Tuesday and cooler air to infiltrate for much of mid- week. Prior to that, it looks like above average temps to continue thru Monday and probably into Tuesday for most areas as the cooler air is still working its way in on that day. High pressure associated with the cooler airmass for mid-week will then be slow to pull out and should keep our region in near seasonable temps heading into next weekend. Looking at rain chances, models show a slightly less favorable setup for showers on Monday from today, but considering how showers have struggled since the system has weakened and moved away from its primary moisture source in the Atlantic, will elect to maintain a dry forecast for now. A better chance for rain looks to be on the backside of the cold front later on Tuesday, but even then not great. Rain chances then start to get muddled as we head deeper into the week, especially next weekend. The models vaguely maintain the NW flow aloft but with more significant systems potentially starting to ride it down into our area. Location is all over the place with little to piece a good consensus on. For now, will heavily weight the forecast for late week and next weekend on CLIMO and favor max temps in the 70s and slight chance PoPs until a clearer signal is seen. TES && .AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2015 Cloud deck across MO/IL will continue to rotate ewd overnight. Still expect MVFR cigs to move into the region as the lower atmo cools and saturates. However, timing of lower cigs is less certain. Otherwise, winds will be aob 5 kts tonight, becoming light and sely on Sun. MVFR cigs shud lift to VFR with some breaks possible by 17z or so. Chances for precip remain low, but can not rule out a brief -SHRA, mainly across srn MO/IL. Tilly && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
318 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE... HEIGHTS STILL FALLING ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THIS TROUGH MOVEMENT IS BRINGING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WATER VAPOR SHOWS MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA BUT DEEPER TAP IS OVER WYOMING AND CURRENT RADAR DOES SO ANY PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE PARK AND THE BIG HORNS. WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 9 PM. UNFORTUNATELY THIS TIMING MAY IMPACT LUNAR ECLIPSE VIEWING FOR PEOPLE. MONDAY IS MOSTLY DRY WITH A CONTINUED COOLING TREND WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING WEAKLY OVER THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS BECOMES POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO THAT AREA AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. STILL NOT A BUNCH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED. TUESDAY HEIGHTS BUILD UPSTREAM WITH DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRYING BUT NO WHERE NEAR THE SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS SEEN EARLIER THIS WEEKEND. BORSUM .LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN... EXTENDED DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE SHOWING AGREEMENT EARLY...WHILE THE EURO ENSEMBLES CONTINUED TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE GEFS SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL 00Z FRI. NOTED THAT DETERMINISTIC MODELS START FALLING OUT OF AGREEMENT ON FRI WITH POTENIALLY POTENT APPROACHING WEST-COAST SYSTEM. UPPER RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... TO THEN BE REPLACED BY PACIFIC TROUGH WHEN MODEL QPF BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH ASSOCIATED FORCING IN WESTERN ZONES. THE TROUGH WILL FORM AN UPPER LOW THAT SHIFTS SE DURING FRI... WITH TRENDING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SAME DIRECTION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ARE PRESENT IN THE GRIDS TO COVER THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST THE AREA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TRACK SHOULD BRING COOLER WEATHER INTO THE AREA GRADUALLY... AS THE FRONTAL COMPLEX AND SFC LOW ALSO REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH. GFS SOLUTION HAS MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND QPF IN FAVOR OF AT LEAST SOME MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT EURO IS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND DRIER IN THE SAME PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION BRINGS AN UPPER LOW ONTO THE CENTRAL CA COST...WHILE THE GFS HAD THE LOW NEARBY BUT MUCH WEAKER..WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IN THE EURO LIKELY THE SOURCE OF WARMER TEMPS. BOTH MODELS THUS HAD VERY DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF FLOW OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH SW IN THE EURO AND SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE NW FLOW FROM THE GFS... BUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD WAS DRY IN BOTH MODELS. MROWELL && .AVIATION... VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS LATE IN THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR S AND E OF A KLVM TO KBIL TO FORSYTH LINE THIS EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE E AND SE OF KBIL OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF OBSCURATION OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS TONIGHT. ARTHUR/BORSUM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 049/068 046/078 051/081 053/072 051/065 047/059 041/063 10/B 00/U 01/U 35/W 53/W 22/W 11/B LVM 041/069 042/078 046/081 048/068 046/064 044/058 039/062 10/U 00/U 01/B 34/W 32/W 22/W 22/W HDN 047/070 044/079 048/084 050/076 048/067 045/062 041/068 10/B 01/B 11/U 35/W 52/W 22/W 11/B MLS 049/068 044/077 048/081 052/077 050/066 046/063 042/066 31/B 01/B 11/U 25/W 43/W 22/W 11/B 4BQ 050/066 046/077 049/082 051/076 049/067 046/064 043/068 21/E 01/B 21/U 13/W 54/W 22/W 21/B BHK 047/064 043/072 047/078 049/073 048/064 044/062 041/064 42/W 01/B 21/U 23/W 44/W 21/B 11/B SHR 046/069 043/079 047/082 048/075 048/067 042/063 039/068 21/B 11/B 11/B 24/W 33/W 22/W 11/B && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
634 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION WITH SEVERAL PV ANOMALIES ROTATING AROUND IT. IN ADDITION...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW OVER THE E PAC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PV CONNECTION TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. CLOSER TO HOME...WEAKER PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS SRN WY ATTM GENERATING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS ERN WY...WITH ISOLD SHRA/-TSRA IN PORTIONS OF NC NEBR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MID LEVEL FGEN ACROSS THAT AREA. SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STALLED FROM NEAR LIMON CO TO NORTH OF GLD TO JUST S OF EAR TO S OF YANKTON SD. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 NEW COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD OVERNIGHT WITH MOST OF WESTERN AND NC NEBR REMAINING IN THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ATTENDANT TO A EWD ADVANCING PV ANOMALY AS MENTIONED WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN SD/NRN NEBR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT OVERNIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AREA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS PRESENT ON THE 305/310K LEVELS. ELEVATED WEAK TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS BROWN...ROCK AND HOLT COUNTIES STILL ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FGEN WITHIN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. INTEGRATING THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OVERNIGHT YIELDS AN AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA CURRENTLY OVER SWRN SD TO MOVE ACROSS NRN NEBR BUT THEN SOME MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE 06- 09Z TIME FRAME THAT MAY ALLOW REDEVELOPMENT WWD. MEANWHILE THE HRRR SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SWD ADVANCING FRONT PRIOR TO 06Z AND THEN PUSHING SEWD OVERNIGHT. WITH SEVERAL SMALL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TIMING AND LOCATION OF NEW DEVELOPMENT BECOMES DIFFICULT. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIP...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STRONGER THAN WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD LOW VSBYS. HENCE HAVE SIDED ON PATCHY FOG MENTION. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY SO WOULD EXPECT OCCASIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA ESPECIALLY IN SWRN NEBR. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN CONSIDERABLY DUE TO LOW CLOUD COVER AND ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 MODELS AGAIN COMING IN COOLER. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE MID TERM AND GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM. TOMORROW NIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST SEVERAL WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH RIDGE. ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH LLJ AND SOME LIFT. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING WITH DRIZZLE TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ECMWF WARMER THAN GFS. STRONG WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WITH SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COOL AT THE SURFACE WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT AS WARNER AIR AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTH LIFTED OVER THE COOLER AIR. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. TRANSITIONING TO RAINSHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. SHOWERS END SUNDAY WITH A WARMUP INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EAST AND 70S WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. 50S AND 60S SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT FROM 00Z TO 06Z...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS MOIST AIR LIFTS UP OVER A FRONT ACROSS NEBRASKA. VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW 3SM IS LIKELY WITH THE SHOWERS THOUGH CEILINGS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 3000 FEET AGL. THOUGH THE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ABOUT HALF OF THE AREA...THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDER IS ONLY ABOUT 20 PERCENT. FOR THE TIME BEING THEN...WE WILL LEAVE TS OUT OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR LBF AND VTN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH...CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL ARE LIKELY AFTER 06Z IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...I.E. SOUTH AND WEST OF AN IEN-BBW LINE. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JWS SHORT TERM...JWS LONG TERM...POWER AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
138 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTING WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FROST IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST VERMONT TONIGHT. A RETURN TO WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 110 AM EDT SUNDAY... CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING TO QUICKLY FALL IN MANY AREAS. AS IS TYPICAL, WE ARE SEEING A LARGE RANGE OF VARIABILITY AS THE COOL AIR DEVELOPS AND TENDS TO POOL IN VALLEYS AND "BOWLS" IN THE TERRAIN. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY DOWN TO THE MID 30S, WHILE WARM LOCATIONS ARE STILL AROUND 50F. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES HERE AND THERE BASED ON THESE QUICK FALLING TRENDS AS SOME SPOTS ARE ALREADY TO PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LOWS. STILL EXPECT THE RATE OF FALL TO VERY SOON SLOW VERY SOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. 01Z RUNS OF RAP AND HRRR AS WELL AS THE 21Z 6KM BTV MODEL SHOW THAT HAPPENING PRIOR TO 06Z (2AM). STILL HELD WITH THE FROST ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF EAST/NORTHEAST VERMONT. PROBABLY SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER SECTIONS OF THE `DACKS, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT THE HOISTING OF A FROST ADVISORY IN THOSE SECTIONS, BUT I DID ADD TO THE FORECAST FOR THE APPLICABLE LOCATIONS. BUT HECK, IT`S LATE SEPTEMBER SO THESE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY... SUNDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS IN CONTROL, BUT BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO AROUND +11C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. SUNDAY NIGHT: PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT FROM DEEP-LAYER RIDGING ALOFT TO DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THUS, LOW- LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST WITH AN ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN MOISTURE/CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST WILL STILL BE A DRY ONE BUT IT ALSO STANDS TO BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THESE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO TURN OVERCAST TO THE 50S. MONDAY: BROAD NORTHERN STREAM 500 MB TROUGH SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH PWATS CLIMBING INTO THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. 12Z GUIDANCE REVIEW INDICATES THAT THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS, WHICH ARE SLOWER AND FOCUS HIGHEST POPS INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE NAM/SREF ARE A BIT QUICKER. OPTED TO FOLLOW THE SREF MEAN IDEA IN INCREASING POPS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT QPF TO BE AT OR UNDER A QUARTER-INCH THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MONDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STARTS TO ACT ON MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. OVERCAST SKIES INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH-CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. WARMEST NIGHT IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +11 TO +12C AND OVERCAST SKIES SUPPORTING RATHER MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION ALSO ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...CHANGES TAKE PLACE ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR FOG/BR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AFFECTING TAF SITES MPV AND POSSIBLY SLK. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG/BR AT MPV FROM 07Z-13Z AND POSSIBLY AT SLK FOR A SHORT TIME. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL INHIBIT FORMATION ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK. WINDS LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE AT 7-10 KNOTS AT RUT) BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 06Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z TUE - 12Z WED...VFR WITH PERIODS MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. 12Z WED ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-007- 010. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...NEILES/NASH SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
111 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTING WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FROST IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST VERMONT TONIGHT. A RETURN TO WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 110 AM EDT SUNDAY... CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING TO QUICKLY FALL IN MANY AREAS. AS IS TYPICAL, WE ARE SEEING A LARGE RANGE OF VARIABILITY AS THE COOL AIR DEVELOPS AND TENDS TO POOL IN VALLEYS AND "BOWLS" IN THE TERRAIN. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY DOWN TO THE MID 30S, WHILE WARM LOCATIONS ARE STILL AROUND 50F. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES HERE AND THERE BASED ON THESE QUICK FALLING TRENDS AS SOME SPOTS ARE ALREADY TO PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LOWS. STILL EXPECT THE RATE OF FALL TO VERY SOON SLOW VERY SOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. 01Z RUNS OF RAP AND HRRR AS WELL AS THE 21Z 6KM BTV MODEL SHOW THAT HAPPENING PRIOR TO 06Z (2AM). STILL HELD WITH THE FROST ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF EAST/NORTHEAST VERMONT. PROBABLY SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER SECTIONS OF THE `DACKS, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT THE HOISTING OF A FROST ADVISORY IN THOSE SECTIONS, BUT I DID ADD TO THE FORECAST FOR THE APPLICABLE LOCATIONS. BUT HECK, IT`S LATE SEPTEMBER SO THESE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY... SUNDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS IN CONTROL, BUT BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO AROUND +11C AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. SUNDAY NIGHT: PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT FROM DEEP-LAYER RIDGING ALOFT TO DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THUS, LOW- LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST WITH AN ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN MOISTURE/CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST WILL STILL BE A DRY ONE BUT IT ALSO STANDS TO BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THESE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO TURN OVERCAST TO THE 50S. MONDAY: BROAD NORTHERN STREAM 500 MB TROUGH SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH PWATS CLIMBING INTO THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. 12Z GUIDANCE REVIEW INDICATES THAT THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS, WHICH ARE SLOWER AND FOCUS HIGHEST POPS INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE NAM/SREF ARE A BIT QUICKER. OPTED TO FOLLOW THE SREF MEAN IDEA IN INCREASING POPS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT QPF TO BE AT OR UNDER A QUARTER-INCH THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MONDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STARTS TO ACT ON MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. OVERCAST SKIES INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH-CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. WARMEST NIGHT IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +11 TO +12C AND OVERCAST SKIES SUPPORTING RATHER MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION ALSO ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...CHANGES TAKE PLACE ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BEFORE TRENDING TOWARD WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR FOG/BR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG/BR AT MPV FROM 08Z-13Z AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY AT SLK. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL INHIBIT FORMATION ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME FEW-SCT CUMULUS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK. WINDS LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE AT 7-9 KNOTS AT RUT) BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z TUE - 12Z WED...VFR WITH PERIODS MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. 12Z WED ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-007- 010. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO NEAR TERM...NEILES/NASH SHORT TERM...LOCONTO LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1044 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1030 PM MON...LATEST RADAR IMAGES CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST. POPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH THIS UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS. THE LATEST 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS RICH EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC TO ABOUT 700 MB WITH PW OF 2.30 INCHES...SOME 2 TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR THE SHOWERS. ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. SHOWER CHANCES AND ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD RAMP BACK UP AGAIN NEAR THE COAST AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL CONTINUES TO BRING MORE ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN THE AREA. FOR INLAND AREAS...THREAT FOR FOG WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AS LIGHT TO CALM WINDS COMBINED WITH TODAY`S RAINFALL ACT TO PRIME THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... AS OF 4 PM MON...ANOTHER UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY DAY ON TUESDAY EXPECTED WITH SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES EXPECTED. SHOWERS SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY...TRANSITIONING INLAND AS COASTAL TROUGH MIGRATES INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM EASTERLY TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL TRANSPIRE...WITH CAPE VALS AOA 2000 J/KG EXPECTED. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AREA WIDE WITH TD`S UNCOMFORABLY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO BE PLAGUED BY DIFFERENCES AND A LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN WITH TD #11 IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH AND IT`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN US. THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRIEFLY BECOME DISRUPTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THEN STALLS OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT A MODERATE N/NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE LONG RANGE TRACK OF TD #11 IS UNCERTAIN, MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BE DRAWN TOWARD THE COAST WHILE A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES AOA 2" FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD ALSO BE PICKED UP BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND TRANSPORTED TO THE NORTH INTO OUR REGION. THE MODELS UNDERSTANDABLY ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE THIS COMPLEX SITUATION, THUS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT DRIER AIR COULD FILTER INTO THE REGION SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THE TIMING OF THIS IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY THEN POTENTIAL MUCH COOLER ESP OVER INLAND AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHERE SOME DEEP INLAND AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70. NEXT WEEKEND...THE KEY TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA PUSHING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME OFFSHORE AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO FINALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THIS OCCURS WILL NEED MAINTAIN CHANCE LOW/SLIGHT POPS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST. A DRIER DEEP W/NW FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER AS DEEP TROF MOVES EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 8 PM MON...SHOWERS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS DOMINATING ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOIST EASTERLY FLOW THOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AT THE TERMINALS. LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM TO LIGHT ALLOWING FOR FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP. FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF/LIFT AROUND MID MORNING WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER TOMORROW LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD BUT PERIODIC SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS THAT FORM AS TROPICAL AIR AGAIN IS DRAWN BACK INTO EASTERN NC. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1030 PM MON...MINOR TWEAKS WERE DONE WITH THIS UPDATE...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS E/NE 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. SAME GENERAL PATTERN PERSISTS WITH EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO ELEVATE SEAS...THOUGH THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 7 TO 9 FOOT RANGE AS OBSERVED AREA BUOYS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEAS WILL VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH STILL REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 9 FOOT RANGE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN NEAR THE COAST FINALLY BEGINS TO MIGRATE INLAND...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT/... AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS A MOSTLY PERSISTENT MODERATE N/NE FLOW AND ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE OVER THE NC WATERS IN A COMPLEX SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN. LONG RANGE TRACK OF TD#11 STILL UNCERTAIN BUT MAY HELP ENHANCE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE NC COAST LATE THIS WEEK. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO TEMPORARILY DIMINISH AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY TURN SOUTHERLY FOR A BRIEF TIME AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED. BEHIND THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT THURSDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO (BRIEFLY) SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT ON WEDNESDAY THEN AS THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SEAS WILL BUILD BACK TO 6+ FT. OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS SEAS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 1030 AM MON...CONTINUED VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDES WILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ACROSS CARTERET COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST TUE MORNING. HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AS 6 TO 10 FOOT SURF HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ095. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TL NEAR TERM...TL/SK/BM SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...JME/BTC AVIATION...BTC/SK MARINE...BTC/TL/BM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
626 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST AND THEN FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT DURING MONDAY. THE SURF ZONE WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS THROUGH MONDAY. A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA MID WEEK. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WELL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...RADAR SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS STREAMING INLAND FROM SURF CITY TO ELIZABETHTOWN. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST ON SHORE PUSH OF WINDS AND GREATEST LIFT. TO THE SOUTH FROM THE TIP OF CAPE FEAR TO THE GRAND STRAND AND MOVING INLAND...BREAKS IN CLOUDS WERE VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THICK CLOUD COVER FARTHER INLAND...MAINLY WEST OF I95 AS WEDGE HOLDS ON. THE BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SOME GREATER MIXING BRINGING DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING UP TO 20 TO 25 KT ABOVE RADAR AND SOUNDINGS TO THE NORTH OVER THE CAPE FEAR COAST SHOW WINDS AROUND 30 KT OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 3K FT. OVERALL ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH THE CHANCES FOR PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE WELL INLAND AND SHOWERS PUSHING FARTHER INLAND. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR COAST. LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST TO A BROADER AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH RUNNING ALONG THE LEE OF APPALACHIANS. THE SHALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERRUN BY PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN A MORE TYPICAL WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE COME AROUND TO A MORE E-NE FLOW WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PRODUCING MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE PCP. HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS PROGRESSING INLAND WITH BETTER DIMINISHING COVERAGE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE WAS MORE PREVALENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE THE MORE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WERE PROVIDING SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THE DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE A STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE OVERALL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. ALTHOUGH IT DOES DEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER IN PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ACT TO PULL THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WESTWARD. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...AS YOU MOVE FARTHER INLAND THE GREATER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE THE COASTAL AREAS MAY GET A BREAK THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A GREATER NOCTURNAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN. NOT EXPECTING ANY GREAT QPF ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. DO NOT EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT DROPPING BELOW 70 MOST PLACES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY AND MAY EVEN MOVE ONSHORE FOR A TIME ON MON BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT DURING TUE. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...99TH PERCENTILE...REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH SOME SLIGHT DRYING ON TUE AS THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH HAS BEEN EASTERLY FOR DAYS...BECOMES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD SIGNAL A CHANCE TO DRY OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING NORTHWARD AS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE MAKES A RUN FOR THE NE GULF COAST. THIS MAY NECESSITATE EVEN HIGHER POPS FOR TUE THAN ON MON AND OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THUS...WILL BE KEEPING POPS ELEVATED AND AS HIGH AS LIKELY AND INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUE/TUE NIGHT AS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE IN DEEPENING SW FLOW AND WE BEGIN TO SEE SIGNIFICANT LIFT DEVELOP THROUGH A MUCH DEEPER LAYER LATE IN PERIOD AND ON WED. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FORESEE MORE IN THE WAY OF BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WEDGE WEAKENS AND IS DISPLACED WESTWARD. THEREFORE...TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT AND WILL FORECAST MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY WEAK TROUGHING AT THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE GUIDANCE IS WAVERING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE EAST OR WEAK TROUGHING. REGARDLESS AT THE SURFACE...MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. LINGERING LOW PRESSURE WHICH NEVER GETS SWEPT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PICKING UP LINGERING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ATTENDANT FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SLOWLY BY LATER THURSDAY WITH SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY LIMITED DIURNAL RANGES WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...SHOWERS STILL STREAMING ONSHORE AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND AT FIRST AS WELL AS THE VISIBILITY IN THE SHOWERS...HOWEVER THINGS WILL SETTLE IN AS IFR AT ALL TERMINALS IN 3-5 HOURS FROM NOW...CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TIME HEIGHT INDICATES DRY AIR IN THE MID LAYERS BY DAYBREAK...SO DO NOT THINK SHOWERS WILL BE AS PREVALENT TOMORROW. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS MOST OF THE EVENING...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. MONDAY...SLOWLY RISING CEILINGS WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE MAY EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILINGS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. GOOD CHANCE FOR VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WATERS AMZ250...CONTINUED INTO EARLY MON MORNING WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SECONDS EASTERLY SWELLS EVIDENT AT FRYING PAN BUOY ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW...PRODUCING A RISE IN SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE US COAST IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP UP A STEADY STIFF E TO NELY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST...WINDS AND SWELLS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY FETCH WHILE SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR OVER MUCH OF THE SC COAST WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY AND IN SOME CASES MORE OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SEAS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL CONTINUE TO RUN THE HIGHEST. FOR NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND OUTER WATERS IN THE OFF SHORE AMZ252 ZONE...EXPECT 5 TO 7 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST AT 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS GREATEST AS YOU HEAD NORTH IN THE OUTERMOST WATERS. SEAS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS AS YOU MOVE SOUTH. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE MON THEN SLOWLY LIFT OUT DURING TUE. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND STRONG NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WEAKEN MON AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT PROPAGATES NORTH. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK. THE 10 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT INTO TUE AND THIS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED. HOWEVER...THE WEAKER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO DROP ABOUT A FOOT OR SO. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MON WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT BY TUE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO A BETTER DEFINED NORTHEAST FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY. ESSENTIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEYOND THIS A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO 15-20 BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY TO 4-7 FEET LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING SURROUNDING PERIOD OF THE HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES FROM SURF CITY TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. PERSISTENT ON SHORE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS ALONG WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE RAISED TIDAL LEVELS TO GREATER THAN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. WE CAN EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT SLOWLY WANE AS WE PASS THE FULL MOON TONIGHT. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR LOCAL BEACHES WILL BE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING AND FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IT WILL OCCUR AROUND 10 PM. THIS WILL COINCIDE VERY CLOSELY WITH THE FULL MOON AT 1050 PM THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES INTO TONIGHT AND FOR ALL BEACHES ON MONDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ054-056. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054- 056. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106- 108-110. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106- 108. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RGZ/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
327 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST AND THEN FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT DURING MONDAY. THE SURF ZONE WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS THROUGH MONDAY. A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA MID WEEK. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WELL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...RADAR SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS STREAMING INLAND FROM SURF CITY TO ELIZABETHTOWN. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST ON SHORE PUSH OF WINDS AND GREATEST LIFT. TO THE SOUTH FROM THE TIP OF CAPE FEAR TO THE GRAND STRAND AND MOVING INLAND...BREAKS IN CLOUDS WERE VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THICK CLOUD COVER FARTHER INLAND...MAINLY WEST OF I95 AS WEDGE HOLDS ON. THE BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SOME GREATER MIXING BRINGING DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING UP TO 20 TO 25 KT ABOVE RADAR AND SOUNDINGS TO THE NORTH OVER THE CAPE FEAR COAST SHOW WINDS AROUND 30 KT OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 3K FT. OVERALL ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH THE CHANCES FOR PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE WELL INLAND AND SHOWERS PUSHING FARTHER INLAND. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR COAST. LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST TO A BROADER AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH RUNNING ALONG THE LEE OF APPALACHIANS. THE SHALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERRUN BY PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN A MORE TYPICAL WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE COME AROUND TO A MORE E-NE FLOW WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PRODUCING MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE PCP. HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS PROGRESSING INLAND WITH BETTER DIMINISHING COVERAGE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE WAS MORE PREVALENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE THE MORE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WERE PROVIDING SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THE DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE A STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE OVERALL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. ALTHOUGH IT DOES DEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER IN PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ACT TO PULL THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WESTWARD. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...AS YOU MOVE FARTHER INLAND THE GREATER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE THE COASTAL AREAS MAY GET A BREAK THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A GREATER NOCTURNAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN. NOT EXPECTING ANY GREAT QPF ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. DO NOT EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT DROPPING BELOW 70 MOST PLACES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY AND MAY EVEN MOVE ONSHORE FOR A TIME ON MON BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT DURING TUE. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...99TH PERCENTILE...REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH SOME SLIGHT DRYING ON TUE AS THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH HAS BEEN EASTERLY FOR DAYS...BECOMES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD SIGNAL A CHANCE TO DRY OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING NORTHWARD AS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE MAKES A RUN FOR THE NE GULF COAST. THIS MAY NECESSITATE EVEN HIGHER POPS FOR TUE THAN ON MON AND OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THUS...WILL BE KEEPING POPS ELEVATED AND AS HIGH AS LIKELY AND INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUE/TUE NIGHT AS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE IN DEEPENING SW FLOW AND WE BEGIN TO SEE SIGNIFICANT LIFT DEVELOP THROUGH A MUCH DEEPER LAYER LATE IN PERIOD AND ON WED. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FORESEE MORE IN THE WAY OF BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WEDGE WEAKENS AND IS DISPLACED WESTWARD. THEREFORE...TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT AND WILL FORECAST MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY WEAK TROUGHING AT THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE GUIDANCE IS WAVERING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE EAST OR WEAK TROUGHING. REGARDLESS AT THE SURFACE...MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. LINGERING LOW PRESSURE WHICH NEVER GETS SWEPT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PICKING UP LINGERING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ATTENDANT FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SLOWLY BY LATER THURSDAY WITH SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY LIMITED DIURNAL RANGES WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...WITH A MOIST NE FLOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS IFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT WITH MVFR/TEMPO VFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KILM WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS/TEMPO IFR IS OCCURRING. EXCEPT FOR CIGS BECOMING MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO EXPECT THESE GENERAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR SHOULD BECOME LESS LIKELY AT KILM AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP. PATCHY GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING WITH IFR PERSISTING AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS TEMPO MVFR PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WATERS AMZ250...CONTINUED INTO EARLY MON MORNING WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SECONDS EASTERLY SWELLS EVIDENT AT FRYING PAN BUOY ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW...PRODUCING A RISE IN SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE US COAST IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP UP A STEADY STIFF E TO NELY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST...WINDS AND SWELLS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY FETCH WHILE SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR OVER MUCH OF THE SC COAST WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY AND IN SOME CASES MORE OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SEAS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL CONTINUE TO RUN THE HIGHEST. FOR NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND OUTER WATERS IN THE OFF SHORE AMZ252 ZONE...EXPECT 5 TO 7 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST AT 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS GREATEST AS YOU HEAD NORTH IN THE OUTERMOST WATERS. SEAS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS AS YOU MOVE SOUTH. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE MON THEN SLOWLY LIFT OUT DURING TUE. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND STRONG NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WEAKEN MON AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT PROPAGATES NORTH. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK. THE 10 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT INTO TUE AND THIS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED. HOWEVER...THE WEAKER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO DROP ABOUT A FOOT OR SO. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MON WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT BY TUE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO A BETTER DEFINED NORTHEAST FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY. ESSENTIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEYOND THIS A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO 15-20 BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY TO 4-7 FEET LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING SURROUNDING PERIOD OF THE HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES FROM SURF CITY TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. PERSISTENT ON SHORE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS ALONG WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE RAISED TIDAL LEVELS TO GREATER THAN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. WE CAN EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT SLOWLY WANE AS WE PASS THE FULL MOON TONIGHT. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR LOCAL BEACHES WILL BE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING AND FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IT WILL OCCUR AROUND 10 PM. THIS WILL COINCIDE VERY CLOSELY WITH THE FULL MOON AT 1050 PM THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES INTO TONIGHT AND FOR ALL BEACHES ON MONDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ054-056. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054- 056. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106- 108-110. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106- 108. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RGZ/MRR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RGZ/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
323 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST AND THEN FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT DURING MONDAY. A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA MID WEEK. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WELL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...RADAR SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS STREAMING INLAND FROM SURF CITY TO ELIZABETHTOWN. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST ON SHORE PUSH OF WINDS AND GREATEST LIFT. TO THE SOUTH FROM THE TIP OF CAPE FEAR TO THE GRAND STRAND AND MOVING INLAND...BREAKS IN CLOUDS WERE VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THICK CLOUD COVER FARTHER INLAND...MAINLY WEST OF I95 AS WEDGE HOLDS ON. THE BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SOME GREATER MIXING BRINGING DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING UP TO 20 TO 25 KT ABOVE RADAR AND SOUNDINGS TO THE NORTH OVER THE CAPE FEAR COAST SHOW WINDS AROUND 30 KT OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 3K FT. OVERALL ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH THE CHANCES FOR PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE WELL INLAND AND SHOWERS PUSHING FARTHER INLAND. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR COAST. LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST TO A BROADER AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH RUNNING ALONG THE LEE OF APPALACHIANS. THE SHALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERRUN BY PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN A MORE TYPICAL WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE COME AROUND TO A MORE E-NE FLOW WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PRODUCING MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE PCP. HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS PROGRESSING INLAND WITH BETTER DIMINISHING COVERAGE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE WAS MORE PREVALENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE THE MORE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WERE PROVIDING SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THE DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE A STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE OVERALL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. ALTHOUGH IT DOES DEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER IN PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ACT TO PULL THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WESTWARD. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...AS YOU MOVE FARTHER INLAND THE GREATER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE THE COASTAL AREAS MAY GET A BREAK THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A GREATER NOCTURNAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN. NOT EXPECTING ANY GREAT QPF ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. DO NOT EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT DROPPING BELOW 70 MOST PLACES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY AND MAY EVEN MOVE ONSHORE FOR A TIME ON MON BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING OUT DURING TUE. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...99TH PERCENTILE...REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH SOME SLIGHT DRYING ON TUE AS THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH HAS BEEN EASTERLY FOR DAYS...BECOMES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD SIGNAL A CHANCE TO DRY OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING NORTHWARD AS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE MAKES A RUN FOR THE NE GULF COAST. THIS MAY NECESSITATE EVEN HIGHER POPS FOR TUE THAN ON MON AND OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THUS...WILL BE KEEPING POPS ELEVATED AND AS HIGH AS LIKELY AND INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUE/TUE NIGHT AS MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE IN DEEPENING SW FLOW AND WE BEGIN TO SEE SIGNIFICANT LIFT DEVELOP THROUGH A MUCH DEEPER LAYER LATE IN PERIOD AND ON WED. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FORESEE MORE IN THE WAY OF BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AS COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WEDGE WEAKENS AND IS DISPLACED WESTWARD. THEREFORE...TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT AND WILL FORECAST MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY WEAK TROUGHING AT THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE GUIDANCE IS WAVERING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE EAST OR WEAK TROUGHING. REGARDLESS AT THE SURFACE...MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. LINGERING LOW PRESSURE WHICH NEVER GETS SWEPT OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PICKING UP LINGERING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ATTENDANT FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SLOWLY BY LATER THURSDAY WITH SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY LIMITED DIURNAL RANGES WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...WITH A MOIST NE FLOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS IFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT WITH MVFR/TEMPO VFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KILM WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS/TEMPO IFR IS OCCURRING. EXCEPT FOR CIGS BECOMING MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO EXPECT THESE GENERAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR SHOULD BECOME LESS LIKELY AT KILM AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP. PATCHY GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING WITH IFR PERSISTING AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS TEMPO MVFR PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WATERS AMZ250...CONTINUED INTO EARLY MON MORNING WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SECONDS EASTERLY SWELLS EVIDENT AT FRYING PAN BUOY ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW...PRODUCING A RISE IN SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE US COAST IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP UP A STEADY STIFF E TO NELY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST...WINDS AND SWELLS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY FETCH WHILE SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR OVER MUCH OF THE SC COAST WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY AND IN SOME CASES MORE OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SEAS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL CONTINUE TO RUN THE HIGHEST. FOR NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND OUTER WATERS IN THE OFF SHORE AMZ252 ZONE...EXPECT 5 TO 7 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST AT 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS GREATEST AS YOU HEAD NORTH IN THE OUTERMOST WATERS. SEAS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS AS YOU MOVE SOUTH. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE MON THEN SLOWLY LIFT OUT DURING TUE. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND STRONG NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WEAKEN MON AS THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT PROPAGATES NORTH. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK. THE 10 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT INTO TUE AND THIS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED. HOWEVER...THE WEAKER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO DROP ABOUT A FOOT OR SO. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS UP TO 4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MON WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT BY TUE. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO A BETTER DEFINED NORTHEAST FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY. ESSENTIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEYOND THIS A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO 15-20 BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY TO 4-7 FEET LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING SURROUNDING PERIOD OF THE HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES FROM SURF CITY TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER AND ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. PERSISTENT ON SHORE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS ALONG WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE RAISED TIDAL LEVELS TO GREATER THAN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. WE CAN EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT SLOWLY WANE AS WE PASS THE FULL MOON TONIGHT. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR LOCAL BEACHES WILL BE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING AND FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IT WILL OCCUR AROUND 10 PM. THIS WILL COINCIDE VERY CLOSELY WITH THE FULL MOON AT 1050 PM THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES INTO TONIGHT AND FOR ALL BEACHES ON MONDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054- 056. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106- 108-110. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106- 108. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RGZ/MRR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
306 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...RADAR SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS STREAMING INLAND FROM SURF CITY TO ELIZABETHTOWN. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST ON SHORE PUSH OF WINDS AND GREATEST LIFT. TO THE SOUTH FROM THE TIP OF CAPE FEAR TO THE GRAND STRAND AND MOVING INLAND...BREAKS IN CLOUDS WERE VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THICK CLOUD COVER FARTHER INLAND...MAINLY WEST OF I95 AS WEDGE HOLDS ON. THE BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SOME GREATER MIXING BRINGING DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS ABOVE RADAR AND SOUNDINGS TO THE NORTH OVER THE CAPE FEAR COAST SHOW WINDS AROUND 30 KTS OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 3K FT. OVERALL ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH THE CHANCES FOR PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE WELL INLAND AND SHOWERS PUSHING FARTHER INLAND. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR COAST. LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST TO A BROADER AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH RUNNING ALONG THE LEE OF APPALACHIANS. THE SHALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERRUN BY PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN A MORE TYPICAL WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE COME AROUND TO A MORE E-NE FLOW WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PRODUCING MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE PCP. HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS PROGRESSING INLAND WITH BETTER DIMINISHING COVERAGE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE WAS MORE PREVALENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE THE MORE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WERE PROVIDING SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THE DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF COAST WILL PROVIDE A STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE OVERALL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. ALTHOUGH IT DOES DEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER IN PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ACT TO PULL THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WESTWARD. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...AS YOU MOVE FARTHER INLAND THE GREATER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE THE COASTAL AREAS MAY GET A BREAK THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A GREATER NOCTURNAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN. NOT EXPECTING ANY GREAT QPF ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. DO NOT EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT DROPPING BELOW 70 MOST PLACES. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... THE SHORT TERM PERIOD APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUATION OF ONE OF THE LONGER CLOUDY STRETCHES WE`VE SEEN IN A WHILE. MONDAY KEEPS THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE LOCKED INTO THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND A GOMEX IMPULSE TO BRING SOME WEAK PVA. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE BOLSTERED FROM RECENT DAYS BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT NHC IS GIVING A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS (THOUGH WORTH NOTING THAT IT WILL NOT APPROACH LAND). THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUD AND PERHAPS LIGHT RAIN MAKING THE COOLER GFS-BASED MOS MORE APPEALING THAN THE WRF-BASED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND TURNS TO SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. ALSO SOME MOISTURE AND VORTICITY CENTERS STREAM OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO HIT 80 AND SOME LIGHT RAIN IN MANY PLACES...WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGHER QPF WELL INLAND. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY DECELERATES SOME AND MAY STILL BE CLOSE BY ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES. COOL AND DRY ADVECTION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS NEAR 60/UPPER 50S BUT ALSO THE FIRST SUNSHINE THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED IN QUITE A WHILE. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...WITH A MOIST NE FLOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS IFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT WITH MVFR/TEMPO VFR AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KILM WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS/TEMPO IFR IS OCCURRING. EXCEPT FOR CIGS BECOMING MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO EXPECT THESE GENERAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR SHOULD BECOME LESS LIKELY AT KILM AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RE-DEVELOP. PATCHY GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS BY MID MORNING WITH IFR PERSISTING AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS TEMPO MVFR PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WATERS AMZ250...CONTINUED INTO EARLY MON MORNING WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SECONDS EASTERLY SWELLS EVIDENT AT FRYING PAN BUOY ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW...PRODUCING A RISE IN SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE US COAST IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP UP A STEADY STIFF E TO NELY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST...WINDS AND SWELLS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY FETCH WHILE SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR OVER MUCH OF THE SC COAST WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY AND IN SOME CASES MORE OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SEAS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL CONTINUE TO RUN THE HIGHEST. FOR NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND OUTER WATERS IN THE OFF SHORE AMZ252 ZONE...EXPECT 5 TO 7 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS AND SEAS GREATEST AS YOU HEAD NORTH IN THE OUTERMOST WATERS. SEAS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS AS YOU MOVE SOUTH. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... ALL TOO FAMILIAR EASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF FLORIDA. MUCH OF THE SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FAIRLY LONG FETCH WILL BE CHANNELED INTO THE OUTER BANKS AND LOCALIZED WAVE SHADOWING KEEPS SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE ACCORDING TO WNA/SWAN BLEND. FLOW TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND VEER A BIT ON TUESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH LOSES ITS RIDGE AXIS INTO THE U.S. AND THE LOW WEAKENS. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL VEER AND PICK UP LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS INCREASE MAY BE A CATEGORY OR TWO AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO WHERE SCEC IS NEEDED THOUGH THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL ACT TO HOLD BACK NEAR SHORE WAVE HEIGHTS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND THE GRADIENT MAY BECOME PINCHED AS THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR BORDERLINE OF SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING SURROUNDING PERIOD OF THE HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES FROM SURF CITY TO MURRELLS INLET AND ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. PERSISTENT ON SHORE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS ALONG WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE RAISED TIDAL LEVELS TO GREATER THAN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. WE CAN EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT SLOWLY WANE AS WE PASS THE FULL MOON TONIGHT. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR LOCAL BEACHES WILL BE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING AND FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IT WILL OCCUR AROUND 10 PM. THIS WILL COINCIDE VERY CLOSELY WITH THE FULL MOON AT 1050 PM THIS EVENING. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106- 108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250. && $$ NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB/CRM AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF AND OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 1010 AM SUNDAY...RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SLOWLY DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INLAND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON THE COAST CONTINUING. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDIATES PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING INLAND DESPITE DEEPER LAYER LIFT ABATING...AND HAVE ADDED AREAS DRIZZLE TO THE FCST AS SNDGS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY CONTIUING THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. RETAINED LIKELY POPS REST OF THE DAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF AND COASTAL AREAS. PREV DISC...GOOD ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND WEAK LOW TO THE S. THIS FLOW WILL CONT TO PUMP LOTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH GOOD CVRG OF SHRA EXPECTED. HAVE POPS RANGING FROM LIKELY INLAND TO CAT CST. STILL COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIF FLOODING NOT EXPECTED TO SO WILL DROP FLOOD WATCH. WILL CONT TO HAVE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HOWEVER MAY BRIGHTEN A BIT THIS AFTN A FEW SPOTS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE. WILL REMAIN WINDY ALONG THE OBX AND BREEZY INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM SAT...THE CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FEED OF MOIST AIR WEAKENS WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. CONVERGENCE VIA THE WEAKENING COASTAL TROF WILL STILL SUPPORT LIKELY RAIN CHANCES AT THE COAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LESSER CHANCES FARTHER INLAND. CONT ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD WITH LOWS 65 TO 70 INLAND AND 70 TO 75 BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFIDENCE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE 27/00Z MODEL SUITE. AN INTERESTING WX PATTERN DEVELOPS ON MONDAY DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRYING TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BAHAMAS UNDERNEATH A WEAK UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SAME REGION. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THIS AREA ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO ELONGATE WEST TO EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE STRONG RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK LOW OFF THE BAHAMAS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK LOW WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT MAY LIFT NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE APPEARS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER FEATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DEVOLVING INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION, WITH PWATS AGAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES. LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEK. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NEAR THE REGION. A WEAK INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH MAY CONTINUE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, MAKING WIND AND PRECIP FORECASTS TRICKY AS THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE WILL LARGELY DETERMINE THE SENSIBLE WX. OTHERWISE, THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW THAT MAY EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DUE TO LACK OF AGREEMENT, WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME, THOUGH OVERALL THEME IS UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS THOUGH ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS. FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MED/LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA BY FRIDAY...MEANING DRYING HIGH PRES WOULD FINALLY SETTLE INTO E NC. WILL RETAIN SMALL POPS HOWEVER...ESP NEAR THE COAST...AS ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FIELDS BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TROUGH AXIS BEYOND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...PLENTIFUL LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS LED TO QUITE A BIT OF IFR OVERNIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS AND HRRR SUGGEST THIS SHLD LIFT TO MVFR THIS MORN THEN MVFR/VFR THIS AFTN AND EVENING. OCNL SHRA WILL CONT ESPCLY THIS MORN. TONIGHT COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SUB VFR AND POSS IFR LATE AS WINDS CONT TO DIMINISH WITH LOW LVLS REMAINING SATURATED. NE WINDS WILL CONT TO GUST AOA 20 KTS MOST OF TODAY. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH DECREASING PRECIP COVERAGE. ANOTHER POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RAIN/SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BY MID WEEK. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1010 AM SUN...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO REMOVED SCA FROM ALL RIVERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND...AS MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE IN EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT HERE AND THERE THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO RETAIN HEADLINES. NO OTHER CHANGES TO OTHER HEADLINES AS GUSTY EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH SEAS. PREV DISC...MODERATE TO STRONG ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND WEAK LOW TO THE S. SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING ALONG THE CST SO WILL DROP GALES WITH SCA ALL WATERS. AS WINDS DIMINISH THRU THE DAY THE SCA WILL GRAD COME DOWN ON THE RIVERS. GRDNT BEGINS TO RELAX A BIT MORE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES E AND WEAKENS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW SCA ALL WTRS LATE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE PERIOD ESPCLY CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. SEAS OF 10 TO 16 FT N OF OCRACOKE EARLY WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 7 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT. OVER THE SRN OUTER WATERS SEAS WILL BE 7 TO 9 FT EARLY AND DROP TO 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS PERSISTENT MODERATE NE/E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DOMINATE. WIND SPEEDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS ONCE AGAIN. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION, WITH STRONGER GFS INDICATING A CLOSER OFFSHORE LOW BRINGING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS, WHILE THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE ECMWF INDICATING SCA NE WINDS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PREFERRED THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR SUPERIOR SPATIAL RESOLUTION WITH ELEVATED SEAS ALONG THE NEAR-SH0RE WATERS ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. EXTENDED RANGE WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE AS WINDS/SEAS RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM BY MID WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 230 AM SUN...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWIFT CREEK ABOVE STREETS LANDING AT VANCEBORO. THE LEVEL IS DROPPING A BIT NOW WITH LOW TIDE BUT AS HIGH TIDE OCCURS LATER THIS MORNING COULD AGAIN BRIEFLY GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WITH WINDS LIGHTER TODAY MAY DROP AND STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER. THE PUNGO RIVER AT BELHAVEN HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND FLOOD STAGE PAST 24 HRS, SINCE THIS IS FROM TIDAL DEPARTURES DUE TO THE ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED HIGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVRY FOR OBX N OF HATTERAS THRU EARLY MON MORN WITH CONT ONSHORE WINDS AND LARGE SURF. WITH WINDS A BIT LIGHTER TODAY OVER SRN PAMLICO SOUND HAVE LOWERED THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TO AN ADVISORY FOR CARTERET/CRAVEN AND PAMLICO COUNTIES AND CONT ADVISORY FOR BEAUFORT COUNTY THRU THIS EVENING. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BY 2 TO 3 FEET...POSS 3.5 FEET IN LOCAL SPOTS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ103. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ103. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ080- 093>095. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152- 154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF/TL SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...DAG/TL AVIATION...RF/DAG MARINE...RF/DAG/TL HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
657 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF AND OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE MID WEEK TIME FRAME. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIF CHANGES PLANNED AS RDR SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS CONT TO MOVE ONSHORE AND SPREAD INLAND. PRECIP DIMINISHES AS MOVES INLAND BUT SHLD HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO CONT LIKELY POPS INLAND TO CAT COAST. PREV DISC...GOOD ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND WEAK LOW TO THE S. THIS FLOW WILL CONT TO PUMP LOTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH GOOD CVRG OF SHRA EXPECTED. HAVE POPS RANGING FROM LIKELY INLAND TO CAT CST. STILL COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIF FLOODING NOT EXPECTED TO SO WILL DROP FLOOD WATCH. WILL CONT TO HAVE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES HOWEVER MAY BRIGHTEN A BIT THIS AFTN A FEW SPOTS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE. WILL REMAIN WINDY ALONG THE OBX AND BREEZY INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... AS OF 230 AM SAT...THE CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FEED OF MOIST AIR WEAKENS WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. CONVERGENCE VIA THE WEAKENING COASTAL TROF WILL STILL SUPPORT LIKELY RAIN CHANCES AT THE COAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LESSER CHANCES FARTHER INLAND. CONT ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD WITH LOWS 65 TO 70 INLAND AND 70 TO 75 BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFIDENCE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE 27/00Z MODEL SUITE. AN INTERESTING WX PATTERN DEVELOPS ON MONDAY DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRYING TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE BAHAMAS UNDERNEATH A WEAK UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SAME REGION. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THIS AREA ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO ELONGATE WEST TO EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE STRONG RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK LOW OFF THE BAHAMAS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK LOW WILL TRY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT MAY LIFT NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE APPEARS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER FEATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DEVOLVING INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION, WITH PWATS AGAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES. LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEK. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NEAR THE REGION. A WEAK INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH MAY CONTINUE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, MAKING WIND AND PRECIP FORECASTS TRICKY AS THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE WILL LARGELY DETERMINE THE SENSIBLE WX. OTHERWISE, THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW THAT MAY EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DUE TO LACK OF AGREEMENT, WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME, THOUGH OVERALL THEME IS UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS THOUGH ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS. FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MED/LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA BY FRIDAY...MEANING DRYING HIGH PRES WOULD FINALLY SETTLE INTO E NC. WILL RETAIN SMALL POPS HOWEVER...ESP NEAR THE COAST...AS ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FIELDS BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUITE A BIT INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TROUGH AXIS BEYOND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...PLENTIFUL LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS LED TO QUITE A BIT OF IFR OVERNIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS AND HRRR SUGGEST THIS SHLD LIFT TO MVFR THIS MORN THEN MVFR/VFR THIS AFTN AND EVENING. OCNL SHRA WILL CONT ESPCLY THIS MORN. TONIGHT COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SUB VFR AND POSS IFR LATE AS WINDS CONT TO DIMINISH WITH LOW LVLS REMAINING SATURATED. NE WINDS WILL CONT TO GUST AOA 20 KTS MOST OF TODAY. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH DECREASING PRECIP COVERAGE. ANOTHER POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RAIN/SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BY MID WEEK. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...HAVE SEEN WINDS INCREASE A BIT CNTRL WTRS/PAMLICO SOUND PAST HOUR OR SO AND BULK OF THE MDLS SHOWED THIS. FOR NOW STAYING MAINLY BELOW GALE AND WILL KEEP JUST BELOW BUT MONITOR CLOSELY NEXT FEW HRS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH CONT VERY ROUGH SEAS TODAY PER PERSISTENT MOD/STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. PREV DISC...MODERATE TO STRONG ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND WEAK LOW TO THE S. SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DIMINISHING ALONG THE CST SO WILL DROP GALES WITH SCA ALL WATERS. AS WINDS DIMINISH THRU THE DAY THE SCA WILL GRAD COME DOWN ON THE RIVERS. GRDNT BEGINS TO RELAX A BIT MORE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES E AND WEAKENS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW SCA ALL WTRS LATE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE PERIOD ESPCLY CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. SEAS OF 10 TO 16 FT N OF OCRACOKE EARLY WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 7 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT. OVER THE SRN OUTER WATERS SEAS WILL BE 7 TO 9 FT EARLY AND DROP TO 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS PERSISTENT MODERATE NE/E WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DOMINATE. WIND SPEEDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS ONCE AGAIN. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION, WITH STRONGER GFS INDICATING A CLOSER OFFSHORE LOW BRINGING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS, WHILE THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE ECMWF INDICATING SCA NE WINDS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PREFERRED THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR SUPERIOR SPATIAL RESOLUTION WITH ELEVATED SEAS ALONG THE NEAR-SH0RE WATERS ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. EXTENDED RANGE WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE AS WINDS/SEAS RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM BY MID WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 230 AM SUN...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWIFT CREEK ABOVE STREETS LANDING AT VANCEBORO. THE LEVEL IS DROPPING A BIT NOW WITH LOW TIDE BUT AS HIGH TIDE OCCURS LATER THIS MORNING COULD AGAIN BRIEFLY GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WITH WINDS LIGHTER TODAY MAY DROP AND STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER. THE PUNGO RIVER AT BELHAVEN HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND FLOOD STAGE PAST 24 HRS, SINCE THIS IS FROM TIDAL DEPARTURES DUE TO THE ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED HIGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVRY FOR OBX N OF HATTERAS THRU EARLY MON MORN WITH CONT ONSHORE WINDS AND LARGE SURF. WITH WINDS A BIT LIGHTER TODAY OVER SRN PAMLICO SOUND HAVE LOWERED THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TO AN ADVISORY FOR CARTERET/CRAVEN AND PAMLICO COUNTIES AND CONT ADVISORY FOR BEAUFORT COUNTY THRU THIS EVENING. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BY 2 TO 3 FEET...POSS 3.5 FEET IN LOCAL SPOTS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ103. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ103. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ080- 093>095. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ136- 137. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ131. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152- 154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RF NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...DAG/TL AVIATION...RF/DAG MARINE...RF/DAG HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1240 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 TEMPERATURES ALONG TO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE JUMPED TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY...SO HAVE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY NOON TIME. INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO ONLY ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST TO RADAR TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ONGOING SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA...TO NEAR BOTTINEAU...GARRISON...TO BOWMAN. WINDS WERE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF/BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING THE JAMESTOWN AREA AROUND NOON AND FARGO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BY AROUND NOON. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S SOUTH CENTRAL. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TO THE 40S SOUTH. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH. KEPT LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 OUTSIDE OF FROST POTENTIAL TUESDAY MORNING...RATHER QUIET AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL...ALBEIT COOLER THAN THE RECENT WARMTH...HIGHS IN THE 60S. GIVEN THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S AND FROST ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...FAVORING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE 00 UTC SUITE ENVELOP OF SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO WIDEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATER TONIGHT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AT KDIK AND KBIS...ALTHOUGH CHANCES TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR EITHER SITE. VFR THROUGH THE 18Z PERIOD. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...AYD AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
926 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY NOON TIME. INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO ONLY ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST TO RADAR TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ONGOING SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA...TO NEAR BOTTINEAU...GARRISON...TO BOWMAN. WINDS WERE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF/BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING THE JAMESTOWN AREA AROUND NOON AND FARGO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BY AROUND NOON. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S SOUTH CENTRAL. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TO THE 40S SOUTH. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH. KEPT LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 OUTSIDE OF FROST POTENTIAL TUESDAY MORNING...RATHER QUIET AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL...ALBEIT COOLER THAN THE RECENT WARMTH...HIGHS IN THE 60S. GIVEN THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S AND FROST ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...FAVORING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE 00 UTC SUITE ENVELOP OF SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO WIDEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL BKN-OVC CLOUDS NORTH WILL DECREASE WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATER TONIGHT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AT KDIK AND KBIS...ALTHOUGH CHANCES TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR EITHER SITE. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...NH SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...AYD AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
631 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST TO RADAR TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ONGOING SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA...TO NEAR BOTTINEAU...GARRISON...TO BOWMAN. WINDS WERE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF/BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING THE JAMESTOWN AREA AROUND NOON AND FARGO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BY AROUND NOON. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S SOUTH CENTRAL. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TO THE 40S SOUTH. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH. KEPT LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 OUTSIDE OF FROST POTENTIAL TUESDAY MORNING...RATHER QUIET AND NEAR SEASONABLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL...ALBEIT COOLER THAN THE RECENT WARMTH...HIGHS IN THE 60S. GIVEN THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S AND FROST ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...FAVORING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE 00 UTC SUITE ENVELOP OF SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO WIDEN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015 AT 6 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA...TO NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR KBIS TO NEAR KHEI. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SHOULD REACH KFAR AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. MAINLY SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KISN UNTIL AROUND 13Z AND AROUND KMOT UNTIL AROUND 14Z. LATER TONIGHT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS KDIK/KBIS BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THIS 12Z TAF PACKAGE. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...AYD AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MODELS SHOW INCREASING MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SE. THE QUESTION SILL REMAINS HOW MUCH PRECIP SURVIVES THE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THE HRRR SHOWS NO MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO THE CWA UNTIL AT LEAST 08Z. THE RAP LATEST RUN HAS NOTHING MEASURABLE UNTIL AFTER 12Z. STILL BELIEVE PRECIP DESERVES A MENTION BUT WILL DECREASE POPS MORE. MAV LOWS WERE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND WHILE OUR BIAS GUIDANCE SHOULD BE CATCHING UP HAVE ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO TO LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS FROM YNG TO ERI DOWN TO LOW CHANCE POPS WEST. MEANWHILE THE MAV IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CONSISTENT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY AT MNN AND FDY. DIFFERENCES PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WELL WITH THE MET WETTER ON BALANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MAV WETTER MONDAY. THROUGH MONDAY WILL GO WITH THE SREF KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES TO THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER WEST. MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE MOVES EAST SO WILL BACK OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE. TUESDAY MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THAT AND THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AND ADD THUNDER FOR THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LASTING INTO TUESDAY EVENING...LOWERING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE FAIRLY MILD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT LOOKS RATHER DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT THE COOLER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN DOMINATE THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE BEYOND THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF STILL TRYING TO DIG AN UPPER LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. INTERESTING HOW THIS SEEMS TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR NOW. IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT IT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FLOW IS BACKING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE THOUGH AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE RELUCTANT TO FORM ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA BUT CEILINGS 035-040 WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING. A SPRINKLE OR PASSING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF FORECASTS SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS REDUCING CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES. OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS TUESDAY. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEAKENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DECREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND ANY 4 FOOTERS OUT THERE WILL BE SUBSIDING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL DIRECT THE LARGER WAVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN SHORELINE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE BUT IT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE THOUGH IS SUGGESTING SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS. THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS HIGH AND A DEPARTING LOW UP THE EAST COAST...THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL BE DETERMINED. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED WINDS/WAVES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TO THE POINT THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY IN OUR FUTURE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...MULLEN AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1045 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FOCUS ON THE FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW AFFECTS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 1045 PM UPDATE... INTERESTING TO WATCH THE NEW 00Z NAM COME IN...BUT MOSTLY FOR WHAT IT SAYS FOR TUES/NIGHT. IN THE NEAR-TERM...NO CHANGES FORSEEN AS THE SPRINKLES ARE WELL-HANDLED AND REAL ORGANIZATION TO THE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. 745 PM UPDATE... SHOWERS WANING ALREADY AND HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND. THE SPRINKLES OUT THERE NOW MAY MAKE THE GROUND WET...BUT THEY ARE ALSO MOVING ALONG QUICKLY. THEREFORE A 20 POP IS ALL THAT IS NECESSARY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY 09Z...SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SLIDE INTO THE NWRN COS. PREV... PLUME OF 1.5" PW POOLED AHEAD OF SHEARING 5H TROF WITHIN 850 MB CONVERGENCE ZONE IS MAINTAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL WANE LATE TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK FORCING IN VERY MOIST AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY APPRECIABLE QPF TONIGHT...DESPITE THE COPIOUS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER AND SURGING DWPT WILL TRANSLATE TO A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH MINS BTWN 60 AND 65F FOR MOST. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SET UP ON TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE INTERESTING WITH TIME...WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FIRST THINGS FIRST HOWEVER...GULF COAST UPPER CUTOFF WILL DIRECT A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA ON TUESDAY...WHILE A SLOW MOVING SFC FRONT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES AND INCREASING CHC OF SHRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ISOLATED TSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE DESTABLIZE THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH REACHES +15C AT 850 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MY SOUTH. RAISED POPS FROM LIKELY TO CATEG ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL COMING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE LOCALLY HEAVY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS... WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS PACKAGE. INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THIS BASED LARGELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS THIS AFT...WHICH SHOW CLOUD ELEMENTS OVER EASTERN NC WORKING NW. SITUATION LOOKS LIKE A PRE EVENT. SOME MEMBERS OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT THAT LOOKS A LITTLE HIGH. 1 TO 3 WITH SOME HIGHER AMTS LOOKS BETTER. CAN HANDLE THIS AMT OK...UNLESS ALL IN A SHORT TIME INTERVAL. LATER SHIFTS CAN ISSUE WATCHES IF NEEDED. DID UP POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED AM...AND PUT CHC OF THUNDER IN FCST. DID NOT DO MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES. LATER WED INTO EARLY FRIDAY...LEAST CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL LOOKING WET FOR SAT...BUT STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS. LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WOULD LIFT OUT FAST ENOUGH TO HAVE PART OF SUNDAY SEEING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR MONDAY. MORE DETAIL BELOW. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SIG RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PA TUES NIGHT/WED...AS SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWATS NR 3SD ABV NORMAL...COMBINED WITH MDL INSTABILITY AND SLOW MOVING FRONT SUPPORT THE IDEA OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1+ INCH AMTS...WITH MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS. GIVEN THE RECENT DRYNESS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING NOT A CONCERN. HOWEVER...WILL MENTION POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO. CONFIDENCE IN LINGERING WET WX APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL PA LATE THIS WEEK...AS ALL MDLS HAVE CONVERGED ON IDEA OF A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW CRAWLING UP THE MID ATL COAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE...NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPS BLW CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RADAR AND SATELLITE RELATIVELY QUIET NOW...QUIET BEFORE THE STORM. MODELS AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW CEILINGS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT BUT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR SHOULD DEVELOP. BY SUNRISE THERE WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR. MODELS STILL SHOW RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY FROM NW TO SE. TIMED THE RAIN BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SREF. THIS SHOWS RAPID INCREASE CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR IN NORTHWEST AREAS NEAR KBFD BY 10-12Z. RAIN SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRIED TO SHOW TIMING OF MORE ORGANIZED RAIN THROUGH JST-AOO-UNV- IPT AND MDT/LNS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD GET A GOOD RAINFALL BEST RAIN AND LOWERED CIGS/VIS AT THIS TIME COULD BE OVER CENTRAL PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DID NOT PUT THUNDER IN TAFS BUT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IS AN ISSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 5-10MPH IN THE SHALLOW COOL MOIST AIR. THE WARM AIR LIFTING OVER THIS TUESDAY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF OUR RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. MVFR AND IFR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLE LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG AND MORE INTENSE RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTLOOK... TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS AND RAIN LIKELY...MOVING WEST TO EAST. TUE NIGHT...LOW CIGS/RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY. WED...LOW CIGS EARLY. RAIN TO SCT SHOWERS IN AFTERNOON. THU...MAINLY VFR/MFVR AM FOG AND ISOLD SHOWERS. FRI-SAT...CHC OF SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1029 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FOCUS ON THE FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW AFFECTS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 745 PM UPDATE... SHOWERS WANING ALREADY AND HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND. THE SPRINKLES OUT THERE NOW MAY MAKE THE GROUND WET...BUT THEY ARE ALSO MOVING ALONG QUICKLY. THEREFORE A 20 POP IS ALL THAT IS NECESSARY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY 09Z...SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SLIDE INTO THE NWRN COS. PREV... PLUME OF 1.5" PW POOLED AHEAD OF SHEARING 5H TROF WITHIN 850 MB CONVERGENCE ZONE IS MAINTAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL WANE LATE TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK FORCING IN VERY MOIST AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY APPRECIABLE QPF TONIGHT...DESPITE THE COPIOUS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER AND SURGING DWPT WILL TRANSLATE TO A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH MINS BTWN 60 AND 65F FOR MOST. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SET UP ON TUESDAY IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE INTERESTING WITH TIME...WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. FIRST THINGS FIRST HOWEVER...GULF COAST UPPER CUTOFF WILL DIRECT A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA ON TUESDAY...WHILE A SLOW MOVING SFC FRONT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES AND INCREASING CHC OF SHRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ISOLATED TSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE DESTABLIZE THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH REACHES +15C AT 850 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MY SOUTH. RAISED POPS FROM LIKELY TO CATEG ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL COMING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE LOCALLY HEAVY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS... WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS PACKAGE. INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THIS BASED LARGELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS THIS AFT...WHICH SHOW CLOUD ELEMENTS OVER EASTERN NC WORKING NW. SITUATION LOOKS LIKE A PRE EVENT. SOME MEMBERS OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT THAT LOOKS A LITTLE HIGH. 1 TO 3 WITH SOME HIGHER AMTS LOOKS BETTER. CAN HANDLE THIS AMT OK...UNLESS ALL IN A SHORT TIME INTERVAL. LATER SHIFTS CAN ISSUE WATCHES IF NEEDED. DID UP POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED AM...AND PUT CHC OF THUNDER IN FCST. DID NOT DO MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES. LATER WED INTO EARLY FRIDAY...LEAST CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL LOOKING WET FOR SAT...BUT STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS. LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WOULD LIFT OUT FAST ENOUGH TO HAVE PART OF SUNDAY SEEING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR MONDAY. MORE DETAIL BELOW. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SIG RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PA TUES NIGHT/WED...AS SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWATS NR 3SD ABV NORMAL...COMBINED WITH MDL INSTABILITY AND SLOW MOVING FRONT SUPPORT THE IDEA OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1+ INCH AMTS...WITH MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS. GIVEN THE RECENT DRYNESS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING NOT A CONCERN. HOWEVER...WILL MENTION POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO. CONFIDENCE IN LINGERING WET WX APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL PA LATE THIS WEEK...AS ALL MDLS HAVE CONVERGED ON IDEA OF A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW CRAWLING UP THE MID ATL COAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE...NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPS BLW CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RADAR AND SATELLITE RELATIVELY QUIET NOW...QUIET BEFORE THE STORM. MODELS AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW CEILINGS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT BUT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR SHOULD DEVELOP. BY SUNRISE THERE WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR. MODELS STILL SHOW RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY FROM NW TO SE. TIMED THE RAIN BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SREF. THIS SHOWS RAPID INCREASE CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR IN NORTHWEST AREAS NEAR KBFD BY 10-12Z. RAIN SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRIED TO SHOW TIMING OF MORE ORGANIZED RAIN THROUGH JST-AOO-UNV- IPT AND MDT/LNS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD GET A GOOD RAINFALL BEST RAIN AND LOWERED CIGS/VIS AT THIS TIME COULD BE OVER CENTRAL PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DID NOT PUT THUNDER IN TAFS BUT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IS AN ISSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 5-10MPH IN THE SHALLOW COOL MOIST AIR. THE WARM AIR LIFTING OVER THIS TUESDAY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF OUR RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. MVFR AND IFR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLE LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG AND MORE INTENSE RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTLOOK... TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS AND RAIN LIKELY...MOVING WEST TO EAST. TUE NIGHT...LOW CIGS/RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY. WED...LOW CIGS EARLY. RAIN TO SCT SHOWERS IN AFTERNOON. THU...MAINLY VFR/MFVR AM FOG AND ISOLD SHOWERS. FRI-SAT...CHC OF SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
259 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING UPPER TROF WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS IN REDUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NY STATE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS WV AND VA LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE ANOMALOUS ESE FLOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS GOING. HRRR NOW SHOWS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MY CWA THIS EVENING OVER WV AND VA. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS REMAINS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO THIS EVENING. DESPITE THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTS TO SUPPORT A MAINLY DRY FCST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE SFC RIDGE AND LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL LIE. LINGERING FETCH INTO THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL KEEP A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE...BUT IT WILL BE LIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL KEEP THINGS MILDER NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MINS WITH MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... OFFSHORE HIGH RETREATS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WITH EASTERLY FETCH DECREASING AS A RESULT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME INCREASES OVER PA AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. FORCING REMAINS WEAK ON MONDAY...BUT THE SERLY LOW LVL FLOW AND ASSOC OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL KEEP THINGS CLOUDY FOR MOST. WEAK UPPER TROF APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS...ESP ACROSS THE WEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE NEXT WEEK...ALL OF WHICH PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA LATE TUE/EARLY WED...THEN DEVELOP A SLOW-MOVING COASTAL LOW ON STALLED FRONT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENT OF CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE OHIO VALLEY. BASED ON LATEST 00Z OPER AND ENS GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE TUES/TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC WITH FROPA. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT TSRA ACROSS NW PA TUE AFTN/EVEN...WHERE SOME MODEST CAPES NOTED IN THE LATEST GEFS OUTPUT. CONFIDENCE IN A LONG DURATION SOAKING RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS WEEK...AS ALL MDLS HAVE CONVERGED ON IDEA OF A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW CRAWLING UP THE MID ATL COAST. INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH A 4-6 DAY FCST REMAIN...SO UNABLE TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. HOWEVER...A SWATH OF SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL APPEARS QUITE POSSIBLE EITHER OVER PA OR VIRGINIA. GEFS QPF PLUMES ACROSS SOUTHERN PA INDICATE LATE WEEK RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM ZERO TO 3-4 INCHES. ATTM...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE WED-SAT TIME FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO LATE WEEK RAIN...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS TAKING TUMBLE AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE. NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPS AOB CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VERY WEAK UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND CIG REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN MTNS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E/SE AT SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 5-10MPH...WITH SOME BREEZINESS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS OVERALL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MON...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SPREAD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR DECK WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MVFR IN THE LOWER SUSQ. LOW CIGS PERSIST INTO MON...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT BEING OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. MAY EVEN REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NW HALF OF CWA WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND. OUTLOOK... MON...INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN/LOW CIGS... FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN HALF. TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS LIKELY...ESP NW HALF. TUE NIGHT...LOW CIGS/SCT SHOWERS. WED...LOW CIGS NW MTNS EARLY. CHC SHOWERS SOUTH. THU...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1136 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA EARLY TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS IN KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NY STATE. THIS IS A DECREASE FROM THE MORNING COVERAGE...BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS WV AND VA LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE ANOMALOUS ESE FLOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS GOING. HRRR ACTUALLY SHOWS INCRDASING COVERAGE JUST SOUTHWEST OF MY AREA BY THIS EVENING...AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE POOLS THERE. WHILE THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SEE DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW REMNANTS AND LG FORCING SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...SFC RIDGING AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE MAINLY DRY. COOLEST TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F UNDER THICK OVERCAST AND SCT SHOWERS. PTSUNNY SKIES WILL RESULT IN A MILDER SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN PA...WHERE CONSALL OUTPUT SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE L70S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A DRY FCST TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE SFC RIDGE AND LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL LIE. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOIST SERLY FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOCUSED FROM THE VIRGINIAS INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT. OROGRAPHIC FORCING OF THIS MOIST AIR MASS MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF LGT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL TRANSLATE TO A MILDER NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY RANGING FROM 55-60F. AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE E COAST MONDAY...VEERING BLYR FLOW WILL ADVECT PLUME OF HIGH PWAT AIR WITH ORIGINS OVR THE S ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL PA. SERLY LOW LVL FLOW AND ASSOC OROGRAPHIC FORCING IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO RISE ABV SEASONAL NORMS. WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE E GRT LKS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE NEXT WEEK...ALL OF WHICH PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA LATE TUE/EARLY WED...THEN DEVELOP A SLOW-MOVING COASTAL LOW ON STALLED FRONT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENT OF CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE OHIO VALLEY. BASED ON LATEST 00Z OPER AND ENS GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE TUES/TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC WITH FROPA. CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT TSRA ACROSS NW PA TUE AFTN/EVEN...WHERE SOME MODEST CAPES NOTED IN THE LATEST GEFS OUTPUT. CONFIDENCE IN A LONG DURATION SOAKING RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS WEEK...AS ALL MDLS HAVE CONVERGED ON IDEA OF A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW CRAWLING UP THE MID ATL COAST. INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH A 4-6 DAY FCST REMAIN...SO UNABLE TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL. HOWEVER...A SWATH OF SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL APPEARS QUITE POSSIBLE EITHER OVER PA OR VIRGINIA. GEFS QPF PLUMES ACROSS SOUTHERN PA INDICATE LATE WEEK RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM ZERO TO 3-4 INCHES. ATTM...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE WED-SAT TIME FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO LATE WEEK RAIN...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS TAKING TUMBLE AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE. NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPS AOB CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VERY WEAK UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND CIG REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN MTNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E/SE AT SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 5-10MPH...WITH SOME BREEZINESS ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS OVERALL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MON...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SPREAD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR DECK WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MVFR IN THE LOWER SUSQ. LOW CIGS PERSIST INTO MON...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT BEING OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. MAY EVEN REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NW HALF OF CWA WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND. OUTLOOK... MON...INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN/LOW CIGS... FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN HALF. TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS LIKELY...ESP NW HALF. TUE NIGHT...LOW CIGS/SCT SHOWERS. WED...LOW CIGS NW MTNS EARLY. CHC SHOWERS SOUTH. THU...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
840 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 .UPDATE... LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMATTERING OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID STATE...WITH A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z OHX SOUNDING SHOW DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW OVER EAST TX...WHICH HAS LIKELY LIMITED CONVECTION SO FAR. HOWEVER...MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND HRRR AGREE THAT ACTIVITY WILL BLOSSOM ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA INTO THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT AS AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY SEEN OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ROTATES NORTHWARD TOWARDS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THUS WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER POPS FOR THIS EVENING...BUT KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CATEGORICAL DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT AS SHOWN ON THE 00Z OHX SOUNDING...DO ANTICIPATE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE SHOWERS. LATEST WPC QPF INDICATES A GENERAL TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENT...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HIGHLY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. SHAMBURGER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/ AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TERMINAL FORECASTS POOR FLYING CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LOW ADVECTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO MID STATE KEEPING LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS ONGOING ALONG WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH THIS TIME TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE NEXT 24 HOURS AS TROPOSPERE IS QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER 500 MBARS THEN DRIES OUT ABOVE MAKING FOR AN AIR MASS THAT IS CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 68 76 66 74 / 70 90 50 30 CLARKSVILLE 67 75 64 73 / 60 80 40 20 CROSSVILLE 65 71 64 70 / 70 100 60 50 COLUMBIA 67 76 66 74 / 70 90 50 40 LAWRENCEBURG 67 75 66 74 / 70 90 50 40 WAVERLY 66 75 65 73 / 60 80 40 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1041 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015 .DISCUSSION... MUCH MORE CLEARING HAS OCCURED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THAN WAS INITIALLY FORECAST...SO THE UPDATE WILL LOWER POPS AND CLOUD COVER AND RAISE TEMPS SLIGHLY IN A FEW AREAS. LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHOW VERY LITTLE PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINLY CONFINED TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SW VA AND SW NC. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AROUND 850 MB WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY...THOUGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN GA MAY BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM HAD BEEN BRINGING SOME PRECIP FROM GA INTO THE CHA AREA TODAY...BUT THE LATEST RUN DELAYS THIS UNTIL TONIGHT. && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1134 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/ UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PRECIP HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED AND WHAT REMAINS IS SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. COULD SEE SOMETHING VERY ISOLATED DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE WRF-NAM HINTS AT...BUT THINK THE CHANCE IS SLIM. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/ AVIATION... SHOWERS AND THUNDER HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. QUIET NIGHT AHEAD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/ SHORT TERM... WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF QUICKLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN OK/WEST TX REGION. THIS TROF HAS BROUGHT WITH IT A COOL FRONT AS WELL AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DRIVEN MORE SO BY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT DUE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES CAUSED BY THE OVERHEAD TROF. AIR COOLED RAIN IN ADDITION TO CLOUD COVER HAVE KEPT THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS RATHER COOL WITH CHILDRESS SHOWING A TEMP OF 71F AS OF 19Z. TEMPS IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE MUCH CLEARER AND ARE AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT HAVE REACHED INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED ALONG A LINE FROM DIMMITT TO POST COMPLETELY DISSECTING THE CITY OF LUBBOCK. ONE OF THE MAIN QUESTIONS WITH THE FRONT IS THE POSSIBILITY/DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF GARZA COUNTY WHILE MOST STORMS HAVE STAYED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. SOME LIGHT ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN AND AROUND THE LUBBOCK AREA...EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS DIMMITT...BUT HAVE YET TO DO MORE THAN SPIT A DROP OR TWO OF RAIN. CU FIELD ON VIS IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE TROF CONTINUES TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP ARE SHOWING THIS WELL AND...ALONG WITH THE HRRR...DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT BY 20Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE EARLY EVENING AS THE TROF PUSHES AWAY LEAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AS LIGHT RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PREVENT ANY DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON/S TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHO SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 80S. LONG TERM... A DRY AND MILD FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST MEXICO VERY GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WE/LL SEE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW- LEVEL WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY THOUGH WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE AUGUST...HIGHS IN THE 80S SHOULD BE THE RULE. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND THIS MAY HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S RANGE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE GREATLY BY NEXT WEEKEND...DUE TO THEIR DIFFERENCE IN HANDLING OF THE FAIRLY VIGOROUS TROUGH AS IT EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A COLD FRONT COULD BE SENT INTO THE AREA OR THE COLD AIR COULD REMAIN BOTTLED UP TO OUR NORTH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 53 82 56 84 / 10 0 0 0 TULIA 58 83 57 84 / 10 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 59 83 57 85 / 10 10 0 0 LEVELLAND 58 85 58 85 / 10 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 59 84 60 86 / 10 10 0 0 DENVER CITY 58 85 57 85 / 10 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 59 85 59 86 / 10 10 0 0 CHILDRESS 64 87 63 89 / 10 0 0 0 SPUR 63 86 61 87 / 10 10 0 0 ASPERMONT 64 89 63 89 / 10 10 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1152 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS TO THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE RATON RIDGE...WHILE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. EXPECT THIS AREA OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVER NIGHT...LIKELY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOZLEY UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 UPDATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON FRONTAL TRENDS AND THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS. FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE...INITIALLY WITH THE FRONT AND THEN SPREADING EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. MOZLEY && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 ...COOLER WEATHER MOVING INTO THE REGION... CURRENTLY... COOL FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ON KPUX AT 3 PM RUNNING NEARLY E-W FROM JUST N OF KPUB TO JUST N OF EADS. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH WHILE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY EASTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED. A LINE OF WEAK CUMULUS WERE NOTED WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS W WY/NW CO THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL BRING THE FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT... WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS VARY ON INTENSITY AND LOCATION...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING GENERALLY N OF HIGHWAY 50. HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A CLUSTER OF WEAK STORMS FORMING UP IN EL PASO COUNTY AND THEN DROPPING EAST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HRRR HAS BEEN HANGING ONTO THIS SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL RUNS...BUT BELIEVE IT MAY BE OVERDONE AS COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE. AS FOR CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT WE WILL SEE A BROKEN DECK DEVELOP BUT BELIEVE ANY CIG WILL MAINLY BE A MID LVL DECK AS PER SOUNDINGS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS UP IN N EL PASO COUNTY AND MAYBE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY NE WINDS DEVELOP SOON OVER THE EL PASO/PUEBLO COUNTY REGION AND LAST INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT SURGES SOUTH. TOMORROW... MOS PRODUCTS SHOW RATHER HIGH POPS TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND FORCING...PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT I AM A BIT HESITANT ON GOING AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE. FOR NOW PAINTED THE GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION IN SCATTERED POPS WITH MORE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE RATON MESA REGION AS FOR TIMING...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION...AND THE AREA OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE AS IT MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DOWN THE S MTN RANGE. THE BIG NEWS TOMORROW WILL BE THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE AREA...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. VALLEYS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL AS COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET INTO THE LARGER VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. /HODANISH .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 .TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR NORTH. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AND HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. .WEDNESDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. MODELS HAVE CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH FORECAST 500MB WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS. SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE LACKING WHICH CAN HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...GIVEN THE WEAKER AUTUMN SOLAR HEATING. HAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP. .THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR A DRY AND WARM DAY. .FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST FORCING WILL MOSTLY BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR NOW AS AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE LOW. THE MODEL DIFFERENCE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED STARTING SATURDAY. EC AND CANADIAN HAVE THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY. A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY MONDAY. THIS IS A WARMER SOLUTION WITH MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARTY MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE GFS LACKS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND IT HAS AN UPPER LOW STALLING OVER COLORADO. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A MUCH COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION. WPC SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE THE BLEND OF THE TWO AND PREDICTABILITY IS BELOW AVERAGE. CR EXTENDED GRIDS ARE A DECENT COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND ONLY TWEAKED THE GRIDS FOR CONSISTENCY. WITH A TROUGH NEARBY...THIS WEEKEND COULD BE COOLER WITH MORE AUTUMN LIKE TEMPERATURES. --PGW-- --PGW-- && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AT THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS TUESDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE EAST WITH VFR CIGS AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY AFTER...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE EVENING HOURS THOUGH IFR STRATUS LOOKS PROBABLE JUST BEYOND 06Z TUES. KALS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK AT TIMES...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...PGW AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1128 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 UPDATED POPS FOR THIS EVENING BASED ON FRONTAL TRENDS AND THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS. FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE...INITIALLY WITH THE FRONT AND THEN SPREADING EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. MOZLEY && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 ...COOLER WEATHER MOVING INTO THE REGION... CURRENTLY... COOL FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ON KPUX AT 3 PM RUNNING NEARLY E-W FROM JUST N OF KPUB TO JUST N OF EADS. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH WHILE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY EASTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED. A LINE OF WEAK CUMULUS WERE NOTED WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS W WY/NW CO THIS AFTERNOON AND IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL BRING THE FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT... WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS VARY ON INTENSITY AND LOCATION...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING GENERALLY N OF HIGHWAY 50. HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A CLUSTER OF WEAK STORMS FORMING UP IN EL PASO COUNTY AND THEN DROPPING EAST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HRRR HAS BEEN HANGING ONTO THIS SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL RUNS...BUT BELIEVE IT MAY BE OVERDONE AS COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE. AS FOR CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT WE WILL SEE A BROKEN DECK DEVELOP BUT BELIEVE ANY CIG WILL MAINLY BE A MID LVL DECK AS PER SOUNDINGS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS UP IN N EL PASO COUNTY AND MAYBE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY NE WINDS DEVELOP SOON OVER THE EL PASO/PUEBLO COUNTY REGION AND LAST INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT SURGES SOUTH. TOMORROW... MOS PRODUCTS SHOW RATHER HIGH POPS TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW AND FORCING...PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT I AM A BIT HESITANT ON GOING AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE. FOR NOW PAINTED THE GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR REGION IN SCATTERED POPS WITH MORE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE RATON MESA REGION AS FOR TIMING...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION...AND THE AREA OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE AS IT MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DOWN THE S MTN RANGE. THE BIG NEWS TOMORROW WILL BE THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE AREA...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. VALLEYS WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL AS COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET INTO THE LARGER VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. /HODANISH .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 .TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO. MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR NORTH. BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AND HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. .WEDNESDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. MODELS HAVE CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH FORECAST 500MB WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS. SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE LACKING WHICH CAN HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...GIVEN THE WEAKER AUTUMN SOLAR HEATING. HAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP. .THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR A DRY AND WARM DAY. .FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST FORCING WILL MOSTLY BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR NOW AS AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE LOW. THE MODEL DIFFERENCE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED STARTING SATURDAY. EC AND CANADIAN HAVE THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY. A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY MONDAY. THIS IS A WARMER SOLUTION WITH MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARTY MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE GFS LACKS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE AND IT HAS AN UPPER LOW STALLING OVER COLORADO. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A MUCH COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION. WPC SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE THE BLEND OF THE TWO AND PREDICTABILITY IS BELOW AVERAGE. CR EXTENDED GRIDS ARE A DECENT COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND ONLY TWEAKED THE GRIDS FOR CONSISTENCY. WITH A TROUGH NEARBY...THIS WEEKEND COULD BE COOLER WITH MORE AUTUMN LIKE TEMPERATURES. --PGW-- --PGW-- && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015 NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AT THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS TUESDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE EAST WITH VFR CIGS AND LOWERING CLOUD BASES THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND NOON OR SHORTLY AFTER...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE EVENING HOURS THOUGH IFR STRATUS LOOKS PROBABLE JUST BEYOND 06Z TUES. KALS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK AT TIMES...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...PGW AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TOMORROW...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT... BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1248 AM EDT...ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THE SHOWERS ARE FORMING WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...AND A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT. THE KENX RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS. THIS IS DUE TO THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE PCPN FROM THESE SHOWERS...AND WE HAVE JUST ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST 00Z RAOB FROM KALY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE 700 HPA...BUT FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE REGION INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHC AND LIKELY VALUES IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE A MUCH MORE HUMID NIGHT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS WITH SFC DEWPTS CREEPING UP INTO THE U50S TO M60S. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO M60S...EXCEPT SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREENS...N-CNTRL BERKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND THE SRN DACKS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY EVENING...AND THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO BECOMING LIGHTER IN INTENSITY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PWATS RISE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG H10-H8 THETA E RIDGE ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES ARE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR ALBANY SHOWING A RANGE OF 1.5 TO 4.5 INCHES WITH A CLUSTERING AROUND 2.5 INCHES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH QPF VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE AS THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE FA. STILL WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND CHANCE POPS NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50. THURSDAY AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS WET AND UNSETTLED WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC PATTERN FOR PERIODS OF RAINFALL BASED ON THE MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...AND THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THERE IS A GENERAL SHIFT TO A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS IN THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SURGES OF ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE POSSIBLE. OUR FCST CONTINUES THE TREND OF LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN...SUPERBLEND AND THE WPC GUIDANCE STARTING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED H500 CLOSED OR CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. A STRONG H250 JET WILL BE NEAR THE EAST COAST...A STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST OFF THE COAST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE ADVANCING N/NE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE EC/WPC/CAN GGEM/GEFS INDICATE ONE SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL. PWAT VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE LATEST GEFS ARE 1 TO 2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS DOES EVENTUALLY BRING SOME RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON...AS A SFC WAVE/FORMER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE /POSSIBLY TD-11/MAY MOVE N/NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OVERALL...HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA THU NIGHT...AND CHC POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH CHC POPS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE USED FOR THE RAINFALL ON FRI. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH MID AND U40S OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S ON FRI WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN. EXPECT A FEW U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A WET AND UNSETTLED WEEKEND IS LIKELY WITH THE H500 LONG-WAVE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FOCUSING PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS ARE INDICATING PWAT ANOMALIES OF 1 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V WIND ANOMALIES/ OF 1 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEAR EXTREME ERN NY AND OVER NEW ENGLAND. DEEP TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC IS LIKELY. A WAVE OR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ENHANCING THE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SAT/SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SFC WAVE IS UNCERTAIN. ACTUALLY...THE ECMWF IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS HERE WITH SFC WAVE OR TROPICAL SYSTEM BEING CAPTURED BY AN H500 CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND JUST HAS SOME OVER RUNNING MOISTURE IN THE NY/NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR WITH SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF WOULD BRING THE CUTOFF LOW TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHC POPS FOR RAIN FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...AND THEN LOWERED TO LOWER CHC POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECASTING EXACT TIMING HERE. ALSO...DURING THIS STRETCH OF FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE FCST AREA COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE PROBS FOR 2 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE IN 24 HRS ARE STILL UNDER 30 PERCENT FROM THE LATEST GEFS FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA /FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT/. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE CLOUDY AND WET REGIME WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND U40S WITH SOME U30S TO L40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE MID AND U50S...WITH SUNDAY BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH M50S TO L60S POSSIBLE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ON AN OPTIMISTIC NOTE...THE LATEST GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES A DRYING TREND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM OH VALLEY AND SE CANADA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT ON THE 12Z GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF WOULD KEEP IT WET AND UNSETTLED WITH THE CUTOFF OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHEAST WITH SCT SHOWERS. IN THE FCST GRIDS...WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. TEMPS TREND TO EARLY OCTOBER SEASONAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SPOTTY RAIN DEVELOPING AND TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY...WITH GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED. AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...SO WILL HAVE TO RELY ON DATA AND GUIDANCE TO FIGURE OUT WHEN AND AT WHAT LEVEL CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP...WITH OPTIONS TO AMEND IF CEIILNGS IN REALITY DEVELOP AT A DIFFERENT HEIGHT. CURRENT VFR SHOULD BECOME MVFR BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING AT KGFL AND KALB BY OR AROUND SUNRISE. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AROUND KPSF AND KPOU SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE INTO MID MORNING. INDICATING GRADUAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS TO BORDERLINE IFR BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING VISIBILITIES AS RAIN BECOMES STEADIER. INDICATING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET ALSO...TO SUGGEST THAT LATER TAF ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET IF TRENDS SUPPORT THOSE CONDITIONS LATER TODAY. THE PERIODS OF RAIN...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH AT LESS THAN 5 KT AT KGFL...KPSF AND KPOU THROUGH SUNRISE BUT SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KT AT KALB. SOUTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNON AT KALB...BUT 10 KT OR LESS AT KGFL...KPSF AND KPOU...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 6 KT AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA. WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA. FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT... BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...DROP TO 65 TO 85 PERCENT ON TUESDAY...RECOVER TO 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DROP TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY...VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. A MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SLOW- MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALL INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RISING WITH THE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT APPEARS A SOAKING RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 4+ INCHES IN SOME AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL FORECASTS WILL BE REFINED AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER. THE LATEST USGS STREAMFLOW DATA SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE REPORTING STREAMFLOW LEVELS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL LEVELS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE D0 CATEGORY...ABNORMALLY DRY. SO MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL RAPID RISES ON THE SMALLER/FLASHY RIVERS/STREAMS AS RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL RAINFALL RATES. MMEFS ANALYSIS FROM THE SREF HAS ROSENDALE...WILLIAMSTOWN...EAGLE BRIDGE AND ROCKINGHAM HAVING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH 18Z ON THE 1ST OF OCTOBER. IT ALSO HAS COLD BROOK AND PRATTSVILLE WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING ACTION STAGE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFM/11/WASULA NEAR TERM...LFM/JPV/WASULA SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...11 HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1248 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TOMORROW...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT... BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1248 AM EDT...ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THE SHOWERS ARE FORMING WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...AND A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT. THE KENX RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS. THIS IS DUE TO THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE PCPN FROM THESE SHOWERS...AND WE HAVE JUST ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST 00Z RAOB FROM KALY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE 700 HPA...BUT FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN DACKS/LAKE GEORGE REGION INTO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. POPS WERE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO THE HIGH CHC AND LIKELY VALUES IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE A MUCH MORE HUMID NIGHT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS WITH SFC DEWPTS CREEPING UP INTO THE U50S TO M60S. EXPECT LOW TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO M60S...EXCEPT SOME U50S OVER THE SRN GREENS...N-CNTRL BERKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND THE SRN DACKS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY EVENING...AND THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO BECOMING LIGHTER IN INTENSITY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PWATS RISE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG H10-H8 THETA E RIDGE ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. GEFS PWAT ANOMALIES ARE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM FOR ALBANY SHOWING A RANGE OF 1.5 TO 4.5 INCHES WITH A CLUSTERING AROUND 2.5 INCHES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH QPF VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE AS THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION STARTS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE FA. STILL WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND CHANCE POPS NORTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50. THURSDAY AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS WET AND UNSETTLED WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SFC PATTERN FOR PERIODS OF RAINFALL BASED ON THE MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...AND THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THERE IS A GENERAL SHIFT TO A MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS IN THE EXTENDED FCST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SURGES OF ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE POSSIBLE. OUR FCST CONTINUES THE TREND OF LEANING MORE TOWARD THE LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN...SUPERBLEND AND THE WPC GUIDANCE STARTING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AN EMBEDDED H500 CLOSED OR CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. A STRONG H250 JET WILL BE NEAR THE EAST COAST...A STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST OFF THE COAST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BE ADVANCING N/NE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE EC/WPC/CAN GGEM/GEFS INDICATE ONE SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE IN THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL. PWAT VALUES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE LATEST GEFS ARE 1 TO 2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS DOES EVENTUALLY BRING SOME RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON...AS A SFC WAVE/FORMER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE /POSSIBLY TD-11/MAY MOVE N/NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OVERALL...HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA THU NIGHT...AND CHC POPS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH CHC POPS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE USED FOR THE RAINFALL ON FRI. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL BE IN THE U30S TO L40S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS...AND ERN CATSKILLS WITH MID AND U40S OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S ON FRI WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MOVING IN. EXPECT A FEW U40S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS. FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A WET AND UNSETTLED WEEKEND IS LIKELY WITH THE H500 LONG-WAVE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH FOCUSING PERIODS OF RAIN ESPECIALLY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS ARE INDICATING PWAT ANOMALIES OF 1 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V WIND ANOMALIES/ OF 1 TO 3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL ARE NEAR EXTREME ERN NY AND OVER NEW ENGLAND. DEEP TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC IS LIKELY. A WAVE OR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ENHANCING THE RAINFALL ESPECIALLY SAT/SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS SFC WAVE IS UNCERTAIN. ACTUALLY...THE ECMWF IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS HERE WITH SFC WAVE OR TROPICAL SYSTEM BEING CAPTURED BY AN H500 CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND JUST HAS SOME OVER RUNNING MOISTURE IN THE NY/NEW ENGLAND CORRIDOR WITH SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF WOULD BRING THE CUTOFF LOW TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHC POPS FOR RAIN FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...AND THEN LOWERED TO LOWER CHC POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECASTING EXACT TIMING HERE. ALSO...DURING THIS STRETCH OF FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE FCST AREA COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE PROBS FOR 2 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE IN 24 HRS ARE STILL UNDER 30 PERCENT FROM THE LATEST GEFS FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA /FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT/. TEMPS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE CLOUDY AND WET REGIME WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND U40S WITH SOME U30S TO L40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET OUT OF THE MID AND U50S...WITH SUNDAY BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH M50S TO L60S POSSIBLE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ON AN OPTIMISTIC NOTE...THE LATEST GFS/GEFS/WPC GUIDANCE INDICATES A DRYING TREND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM OH VALLEY AND SE CANADA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT ON THE 12Z GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF WOULD KEEP IT WET AND UNSETTLED WITH THE CUTOFF OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHEAST WITH SCT SHOWERS. IN THE FCST GRIDS...WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY. TEMPS TREND TO EARLY OCTOBER SEASONAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING SOME CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. IT WILL NOT BE A WIDESPREAD RAIN AS WE GO PAST 12Z TUESDAY WITH THE MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT THIS TIME AT KGFL WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS WE GO PAST 18Z AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND WITH KGFL IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...BEST CHANCES OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST AT AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF KALB. CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL DETERIORATE AS WE GO PAST 18Z AS OVC SKIES AND MORE STEADY RAINFALL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE APPROACHING THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO START THE TAF PERIOD AND THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE SE-SW BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA. WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA. FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA. FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA. SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT... BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...DROP TO 65 TO 85 PERCENT ON TUESDAY...RECOVER TO 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT...AND DROP TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT...SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON TUESDAY...VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. A MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A SLOW- MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY OR GRADUALLY FALL INTO TUESDAY BEFORE RISING WITH THE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT APPEARS A SOAKING RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 4+ INCHES IN SOME AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL FORECASTS WILL BE REFINED AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER. THE LATEST USGS STREAMFLOW DATA SHOWS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE REPORTING STREAMFLOW LEVELS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL LEVELS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE D0 CATEGORY...ABNORMALLY DRY. SO MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL RAPID RISES ON THE SMALLER/FLASHY RIVERS/STREAMS AS RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. URBAN AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL RAINFALL RATES. MMEFS ANALYSIS FROM THE SREF HAS ROSENDALE...WILLIAMSTOWN...EAGLE BRIDGE AND ROCKINGHAM HAVING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH 18Z ON THE 1ST OF OCTOBER. IT ALSO HAS COLD BROOK AND PRATTSVILLE WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF REACHING ACTION STAGE. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFM/11/WASULA NEAR TERM...LFM/JPV/WASULA SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...WASULA AVIATION...FRUGIS FIRE WEATHER...11 HYDROLOGY...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
149 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... IT APPEARS CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW PRESSURE AND INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY....AND STALL NEAR THE COAST LATE THIS WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST. SOME POSSIBILITIES OF FAIR WEATHER RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE FA. THE SURFACE RIDGE AND EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA. INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE HRRR SHOWS SHOWERS MOVING NORTH INTO THE CSRA TONIGHT SO HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FA. OVERCAST SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL PROMOTE LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... SW UPPER FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION. MODELS INDICATE WEST GULF UPPER LOW TO OPEN AND SHIFT EAST AS MAIN STREAM TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE E CONUS. WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE GULF TO DRIFT NE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND SE CONUS. LATEST MODELS APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT BEST UPPER LIFT AND BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD REMAIN MAINLY JUST TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...BUT NONETHELESS HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR IN ORDER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE BEST MOISTURE APPEARS TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BACK DOOR INTO THE REGION LATE WED/WED NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODELS MAINTAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS THU/FRI WITH CUT- OFF LOW NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SW UPPER FLOW OVER OUR REGION APPEAR WILL LEAD TO FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST...WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS APPEARS TO KEEP OUR FA IN A COOL AND POSSIBLY WEAK WEDGE-LIKE NE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU/FRI. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY SAT/SUN WITH A ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...SUGGESTING MOISTURE TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE PERSISTENT WEDGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS BUT WILL LEAN MORE PESSIMISTIC HOLDING CIGS IN MVFR CATEGORY BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO IFR AFTER 00Z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD IFR OR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. DRY AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1154 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 Skies are remaining partl to mostly cloudy with most of the clouds to the southeast, south of I-72. In addition, radar showing very light pcpn moving across southeast IL this evening. Believe this will continue the remainder of the night. Showers and isolated storms are moving across Iowa just behind the front that is still forecast to move into the area early morning. Current forecast looks good, but may do some minor tweaks to pops/wx in southeast IL. Only adjustment will be to wording of wx in southeast to scattered and isolated, instead of chance and slight chance. Update will be out shortly. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 Original shield of lower clouds has been contracting throughout the day, and was basically limited to areas from Peoria to Chicago this afternoon. Remainder of the CWA has seen clouds more of a diurnal nature, which has allowed enough sunshine to get temperatures into the lower 80s. So far the showers have remained extremely isolated. Precipitation threat for the forecast area tonight will be coming from a couple different directions. Across the southeast CWA, some upper level energy will continue to surge northward up the Mississippi River as the upper low over east Texas lifts northeast and starts to open up. Showers should remain isolated this evening, before rain chances start to ramp up late night as the energy gets closer. Could be a rumble or two of thunder in the far southeast late tonight, as the RAP shows lifted index values falling to near zero, but chance is too small at the moment to include in the forecast. Across the northwest CWA, the main player will be the cold front which currently is pushing through northwest Iowa. Arrival of the frontal boundary will be after 3 AM, and most of the rain will be post-frontal, so will only carry some slight 20-30% PoP`s northwest of the Illinois River late tonight. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Monday) ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 A cold front will cross from near I-72 to start the day Tuesday to near the southern tip of Illinois by evening. At the same time, low pressure over the south central states will drift toward the southeastern U.S., helping to combine enough moisture, lift, and instability into mainly the southern half of Illinois for showers and isolated thunderstorms. As a result...keeping chances for showers/isolated thunder south of I-72 for Tuesday...with chances of showers diminishing to the north through the day. Highs will feature a strong gradient across central IL, ranging from the upper 60s in Galesburg to near 80 in Lawrenceville as cooler and drier air moves in behind the front. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s to start the day to slip into the low to mid 50s behind the front over northern counties Tue afternoon. Breezy north-northeast winds behind the front will increase...reaching 10-15 mph with gusts into the 20 mph range. Fairly persistent high pressure will settle into the Great Lakes Region for the remainder of the work week...promoting an extended period of breezy northeast winds and mostly sunny skies. Highs will be in the upper 60s and low 70s through Friday with lows mainly in 40s. There remains fairly poor model agreement over the weekend into early next week...with a weak trough passing through the region in the GFS...but a building ridge into the Plains and upper Midwest in the ECMWF. Neither would have a good chance for precipitation and forecast is therefore dry. Both would feature lighter winds. Temperatures likely will feature minimal trend through the weekend and kept highs in the 60s and lows mid-upper 40s. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 Light showers coming north from the southeast IL overnight could reach DEC and CMI during the early morning hours, so have included VCSH for those two sites for about 6-7hrs, though do not think it will last that long. Then a cold front is dropping south into the area with pcpn behind the front. This pcpn and front will not reach the TAF sites until late morning starting at PIA and then around noon at BMI and then afternoon for SPI/DEC/CMI. MVFR cigs are expected with this pcpn/fropa around 2.5kft along with some scattered stratus. Pcpn associated with this front seems to be weakening based on various short range models, so will just have VCSH with this as well. Has been some thunder with the pcpn across IA but believe will not see any in IL as it should be weakening. As the front moves through, scattered pcpn will end but still expecting mid clouds around 10kft behind the front along with gusty north-northeast winds. PIA/BMI/SPI could see some clearing during the evening hours. DEC and CMI will not see clearing until closer to midnight. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Auten SHORT TERM...Geelhart LONG TERM...Onton AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
415 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SRN MANITOBA. ACCOMPANYING 12HR HGT FALLS UP TO 70M ARE DEEPENING TROF A BIT CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPR LKS. ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THRU UPR MI...ALLOWING AN INFLUX OF MUCH COOLER AIR WITH 00Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -5C AT THE PAS MANITOBA AND -2C AT YPL. DESPITE THE CHILL OF THIS INCOMING AIRMASS RELATIVE TO THE WARM LK WATERS /AS HI AS 15C OVER WRN LK SUP/...DRYNESS OF THE LLVL AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM RAOBS AND LARGER SCALE ACYC NW FLOW TO THE E OF SFC HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS HAVE PREVENTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LK CLDS. PWATS AT THE PAS AND YPL WERE AROUND 0.25 INCH. UNDER THE SHARP PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF THE HI...NW WINDS HAVE GUSTED UP TO 30 KTS AT SOME OF THE HIER PLATFORMS ON LK SUP. THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS STREAKING ACRS THE UPR LKS ON THE NRN FLANK OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST...BUT PCPN/THICKER CLDS ARE CLOSER TO DEEP MSTR WELL TO THE S. MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON TEMPS TNGT AND NEED FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. TODAY...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHRTWV THRU NW ONTARIO AND ATTENDANT COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG...LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE WL DOMINATE AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES CENTER TO SHIFT NEAR WRN LK SUP BY 00Z THIS EVNG. GUSTY NW WINDS...REACHING NEAR 30 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF CLOSE TO LK SUP UNDER STRONG CAA THIS MRNG WL ADVECT THE DRIER LLVL AIR INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME SCT CU COULD DVLP WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS AND ACYC FLOW WL BRING ABOUT A MOSUNNY DAY. DESPITE THIS SUNSHINE...H85 TEMPS NO HIER THAN 2C WL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES. THE STRONG NW WINDS OVER LK SUP WL BRING HIER WAVES UP TO 5 FT AND A HI SWIM RISK ALONG THE BEACHES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. TNGT...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS IS FCST TO STRETCH FM NEAR JAMES BAY ACRS WRN UPR MI AND INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. UNDER LGT WINDS AND MOCLR SKIES WITH PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25 INCH...EXPECT MIN TEMPS OVER THE WRN CWA TO PLUMMET BLO 32 AT MANY PLACES OVER THE INTEIOR W HALF. ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR E HALF MAY SEE THE MECURY TUMBLE BLO 32 AS WELL...A BIT TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT/HIER H925 WINDS UP TO 15-20KT WL LIMIT THE AREA OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LK SHORES...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP E OF THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI S OF ESCANABA...SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH MIN TEMPS HOLDING AOA 40. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO MAINTAIN FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR W HALF. INCLUDED DICKINSON COUNTY IN THIS LATEST VERSION AS WINDS THERE WL BE SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT. ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA TO INDICATE THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF FROST AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES GIVES WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD TO OVER 1042MB BY 12Z FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. DUE TO THE SFC RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER. AFTER WIDESPREAD FROST EARLY ON...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST AND NCNTRL CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NAM/GFS/GEM- REGIONAL SHOWING POCKET OF HIGHER H85 RH AND H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C WHILE WATER TEMPS ARE 13-15C. OVERALL DRYNESS OF AIRMASS AND LACK OF CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BLO H85 RESULT IN MOST CLOUDS OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR NCNTRL... SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS OF MAIN MODELS. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY STAY IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA. CHILLY NIGHT WITH FROST LIKELY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEADY EAST WINDS ABOVE 10 KTS H95-H85 BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND PWATS LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES...NEAR SFC LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE AND MIN TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE MORE IN THE UPR 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. COOL AIRMASS PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY IN THE 50S...BUT THIS TIME WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. THOUGH SFC RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AIRMASS CHANGES LITTLE AND IN FACT...PWATS ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS CHECKING IN LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. LOWERED MINS TOWARD COOLER MEX GUIDANCE AND ADDED MENTION OF FROST. COOLEST READINGS IN LOW 30S WILL BE FOR THE INTERIOR. BY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW TROUGH OR AT LEAST A PORTION OF IT RETROGRADING WEST BETWEEN UPPER RIDGES OVER MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS FM MODELS THAT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE THIS WEEK WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND TO BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST EASTERN PART OF CWA. TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN COULD BE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY TROPICAL SYSTEM JOAQUIN LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OR ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...BETTER AGREEMENT THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER 1040MB CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL KEEP RIDGE AND DRY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO AT LEAST FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. AGREEMENT DECREASES BY LATER WEEKEND DUE TO HOW FAR WEST MODELS BRING SFC LOW TIED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTH FM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. 00Z RUNS VARY WILDLY FM STRONGER SFC LOW AS FAR WEST AS GEORGIAN BAY PER THE GFS AND MORE OVER THE EAST COAST FM THE GEM-NH AND ECMWF. THOUGH GFS SOLUTION IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN IT HAS SHOWED IT OCCASIONALLY IN THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT GEM-NH SHOWED A DAY AGO. GIVEN THE VOLITILITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS WHICH SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAINLY OVER THE EAST CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY COOL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DURING THE DAYTIME AND MID 30S TO MID 40S DURING THE NIGHTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1144 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 NW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT... ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 25KT. INCOMING CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TONIGHT/TUE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT E OF HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT NNW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT OVER THE WEST HALF AS THE HI DRIFTS NEARLY OVERHEAD...BUT N VEERING NE WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E UNDER TIGHTER GRADIENT FARTHER FROM THE HI PRES RIDGE AXIS. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS SLOWLY ENE AND INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A STEADY 15-25KT ENE WIND WILL PERSIST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
333 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. TROF IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SFC COLD FRONTS. FIRST IS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI ATTM WHILE THE SECOND WHICH MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NOTABLY COLDER AIR RUNS FROM JAMES BAY TO JUST W OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IMPROVED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN UNDERNEATH HAS SUPPORTED AN EXPANSION OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE LEAD COLD FRONT TODAY...THOUGH THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH THUNDER THIS AFTN AFTER AN INCREASE DURING THE MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING COLD FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN S AND E THIS EVENING. WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PCPN FIELDS...UTILIZED A COMBINATION OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND RADAR TRENDS TO CONSTRUCT POP GRIDS THRU THE EVENING. LINGERING UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK AS WELL AS SECOND SFC COLD FRONT SWEEPING SE MAY GENERATE A FEW -SHRA BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN TIED MORE CLOSELY TO FIRST COLD FRONT. THUS...SOME LOW POPS WILL BE CARRIED AS LATE AS THE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL/SE. OTHERWISE...COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS CURRENTLY AT 10-13C WILL FALL TO -1C OVER THE KEWEENAW TO 7C FAR SCNTRL BY 12Z TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND 40F AND PROBABLY INTO THE UPPER 30S AT SOME HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER W AND NW UPPER MI. HIGHEST MINS WILL BE NEAR LAKE MI...UPPER 40S/AROUND 50F. ALTHOUGH THE SFC-850MB DELTA-T BTWN THE LAKE WATERS STILL IN THE MID/UPR 50S F IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE CLOUDS/PCPN...FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY. SO...THE CHILLY AIR FLOW OVER THE LAKE PROBABLY WON`T SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN SCT CLOUDS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT -1 TO -2C TUE MORNING. WITH FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING A VERY DRY AIR MASS FLOWING INTO THE UPPER LAKES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. IF ANYTHING...THE MOISTENING PROVIDED BY THE LAKE MAY PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER INLAND FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS ON THE MOISTURE. SHOULDN`T BE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F AND A RATHER BRISK NW WIND... ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES GIVES WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD TO OVER 1042MB BY 12Z FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. DUE TO THE SFC RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER. AFTER WIDESPREAD FROST EARLY ON...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST AND NCNTRL CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NAM/GFS/GEM- REGIONAL SHOWING POCKET OF HIGHER H85 RH AND H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C WHILE WATER TEMPS ARE 13-15C. OVERALL DRYNESS OF AIRMASS AND LACK OF CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BLO H85 RESULT IN MOST CLOUDS OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR NCNTRL... SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS OF MAIN MODELS. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY STAY IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA. CHILLY NIGHT WITH FROST LIKELY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEADY EAST WINDS ABOVE 10 KTS H95-H85 BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND PWATS LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES...NEAR SFC LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE AND MIN TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE MORE IN THE UPR 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. COOL AIRMASS PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY IN THE 50S...BUT THIS TIME WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. THOUGH SFC RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AIRMASS CHANGES LITTLE AND IN FACT...PWATS ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS CHECKING IN LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. LOWERED MINS TOWARD COOLER MEX GUIDANCE AND ADDED MENTION OF FROST. COOLEST READINGS IN LOW 30S WILL BE FOR THE INTERIOR. BY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW TROUGH OR AT LEAST A PORTION OF IT RETROGRADING WEST BETWEEN UPPER RIDGES OVER MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS FM MODELS THAT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE THIS WEEK WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND TO BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST EASTERN PART OF CWA. TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN COULD BE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY TROPICAL SYSTEM JOAQUIN LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OR ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...BETTER AGREEMENT THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER 1040MB CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL KEEP RIDGE AND DRY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO AT LEAST FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. AGREEMENT DECREASES BY LATER WEEKEND DUE TO HOW FAR WEST MODELS BRING SFC LOW TIED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTH FM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. 00Z RUNS VARY WILDLY FM STRONGER SFC LOW AS FAR WEST AS GEORGIAN BAY PER THE GFS AND MORE OVER THE EAST COAST FM THE GEM-NH AND ECMWF. THOUGH GFS SOLUTION IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN IT HAS SHOWED IT OCCASIONALLY IN THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT GEM-NH SHOWED A DAY AGO. GIVEN THE VOLITILITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS WHICH SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAINLY OVER THE EAST CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY COOL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DURING THE DAYTIME AND MID 30S TO MID 40S DURING THE NIGHTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1144 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 NW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT... ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 25KT. INCOMING CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE VERY DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TONIGHT/TUE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015 WITH ONE COLD FRONT EXITING LAKE SUPERIOR NOW...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. PRES RISES ALONG WITH INCREASING OVERWATER INSTABILITY AS COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT TONIGHT AFTER THE SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 20-30KT RANGE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WRN LAKE AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO MOSTLY UNDER 15KT W TO E TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE UPPER LAKES. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE ENE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...IT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE MAY BE SITUATED A LITTLE FARTHER N THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...EASTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME BRISK INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT TIMES DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
453 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .DISCUSSION... THE CURRENT "WET" WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE ARKLAMISS HAS UNDER- ACHIEVED IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...AND WITH DRIER AIR POISED TO MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK...WE EXPECT FIRE WEATHER DANGER TO BE ON THE INCREASE. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...RECENT NWP MODEL OUTPUT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND ACCURATE WITH THE SHORT TERM SCENARIO. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE UPPER TX COAST/SW LA IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF OPENING UP...AND IT SHOULD SHEAR EASTWARD AS HEIGHT FALLS SEND A A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES AND WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED TO GIVE WEIGHT TO THE DRIER HRRR GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE AND HAVE CUT BACK ON CONSENSUS POPS SOME...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT HRRR IS LOOKING A BIT WETTER. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKY GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME CLOUD BREAKS AGAIN AND HAVE FOLLOWED A WARMER BLEND OF GUIDANCE BASED ON WHAT TRANSPIRED MONDAY. /EC/ THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY HAS FAILED TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD HELPFUL PRECIP DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TIGHTENING AROUND A SOLUTION WHERE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION OF A WEAK EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH NEWLY-FORMED TS JOAQUIN STRENGTHENS SAID TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL JOAQUIN COULD BE A MAJOR WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE THE COMING WEEKEND IS OVER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY HIGH IT WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THE MENTIONED SYNOPTIC INTERACTION WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SERIOUS PATTERN AMPLIFICATION...LIKELY RESULTING IN A FEW DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES BETWEEN THURSDAY AND THIS WEEKEND. OF COURSE THESE COLD FRONTS WILL USHER IN SOME RELATIVELY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SPECTER OF CASCADING DROUGHT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ARKLAMISS (EXCEPT MAYBE IN PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MS) THIS PATTERN HAS POTENTIAL TO INCREASE FIRE DANGER MARKEDLY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECASTS DO NOT SHOW DAYTIME RH VALUES DROPPING OFF BELOW 25 PERCENT IN THE LONG RANGE ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES) IF DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BE DEEPER THAN NWP MODELS ANTICIPATE AT THIS JUNCTURE. DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY FROM THE NORTH...ADDING TO THE CONCERN. FOR THIS PACKAGE WE HAVE INTRODUCED AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND THIS RISK IN TIME AND SPACE IF FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE PATTERN SETTING UP LATE THIS WEEK COULD DIG IN AND LAST THROUGH THE DEFINED LONG TERM PERIOD IF BAROCLINIC TROUGH INTERACTION WITH JOAQUIN IS EXTREME AND PERSISTENT. OF COURSE THAT WOULD ONLY WORSEN DROUGHT AND PROLONG POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER...WHILE A BRIEFER INTERACTION WOULD ALLOW AMPLIFICATION TO BREAK DOWN MORE QUICKLY AND PERHAPS BRING BACK SOME RAIN CHANCES BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /BB/ && .AVIATION...WITH CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CIGS HAVE LOWERED AGAIN THIS MORNING. IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES EXIST MAINLY EAST OF THE GWO-HKS/JAN CORRIDOR WHERE SOME PATCHY AREAS OF IFR FOG ARE ALSO OCCURRING. EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO BREAK AND MIX UPWARD TO MAINLY VFR CATEGORY LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN AS SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOP. THE PATTERN SHOULD REPEAT ITSELF AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT DRIER AIR PROMISES MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECASTS AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 83 68 83 63 / 39 24 26 6 MERIDIAN 83 67 82 62 / 36 31 41 14 VICKSBURG 83 67 84 61 / 41 23 10 4 HATTIESBURG 85 69 86 65 / 33 29 37 16 NATCHEZ 83 67 84 62 / 35 23 10 6 GREENVILLE 84 68 83 60 / 40 26 10 5 GREENWOOD 84 67 81 59 / 45 28 16 5 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ /EC/BB/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
352 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2015 Upper TROF exists edging the upper Midwest early this morning with an upper LOW straddling the border between TX and LA. Rich Gulf of Mexico moisture is streaming northward on the eastern flank of this LOW towards the mid-MS and lower-OH river valleys, and along with upper level disturbances meandering north, have resulted in an outbreak of showers with isolated thunder in areas to the S and E of STL metro. A surface cold front, representing the leading edge of seasonably cool Autumn air, extended from east-central IA, near the Quad Cities, to the northwest corner of MO, and into northern KS. Our region remains on the warm side of the front, however, with readings this hour in the lower 60s for areas that have mostly clear skies to the N and W of STL metro, and the upper 60s and lower 70s elsewhere that are cloudy. The upper LOW well to our south is expected to weaken and open during today, but its primary effect on our region will not change much, with it continuing to supply rich moisture, especially for areas S and E of STL metro, with the better moisture and imbedded upper level disturbances becoming more shunted to the E with time. It still looks like a round of occasional showers will occur for areas to the E of STL metro this morning with this area fading towards midday-early afternoon. In the meantime, the cold front to our north will continue to drop towards our region as flow aloft veers more northwesterly with passage of the TROF to our north. It will just take much of the day today in order to do it, and will not pass thru with too much fanfare or identity as winds ahead of it are also expected to become more northerly with time as the LOW to our south pulls out-opens up. With what should be greatly weakening low level moisture convergence in the frontal zone, pcpn is expected to lessen with time with not much left by the time pcpn associated with the front does reach our forecast area and only have low chance category PoPs as a result. Actually, our better rain chances with the frontal zone, such as they are, look to occur later this afternoon and perhaps into this evening, as scattered showers near the I-70 corridor and pushing to the south this evening. Thunder with any of this activity will be isolated and should be confined to areas S and E of STL metro. Temps will be highest in a corridor just N and W of STL metro, including central MO, where rain chances are least, will take the longest to cloud up with a slow moving front--with maxes near 80. Temps will struggle to rise for areas S and E of STL metro where clouds will be thickest and rain chances greatest this morning, and should see maxes from 70-75. TES .LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015 FA will remain on the northern fringes of the upper low drifting into the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow, while upper trof pushing into the upper Great Lakes will allow cold front that approaching northern sections of the FA late tonight to ooze across the region during the day. Some PoPs will be tied to both these features, but I`m really not sure that the 12z based MOS from either the NAM or GFS have a real good handle on the expected precip threat and/or trends. Mass and moisture fields would certainly suggest that southeast sections of the CWA will be on the northern fringes of the precip associated with the southern system on Tuesday, which also suggests that some MOS numbers in this section of the FA may be a bit too high (and this has certainly been the case for the past several days). However, the last few hours of the last several HRRR runs suggest precip blossoming very late tonight as far north to near the I44-I70 corridor...roughly near the northern trofing associated with the upper low. I have upped PoPs some over the southeast half of the CWA, but ultimately expect a pretty sharp PoP gradient that will be resolved in the nowcast time frame. Meanwhile across the north, expect a fairly large band of showers along and especially north of the cold front just north of our FA early Tuesday, with the showers working southeast and gradually diminishing in coverage with time as the cold front works across the region. Some low post-frontal shower threat will likely linger into the evening hours before the drier air behind the front scours out the low level moisture. The latest 12z guidance is continuing the trend of the last few days of being more bullish deepening the UA trof over the eastern CONUS during the latter half of the week, which in turn allows for a stronger intrusion of the Canadian high into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Based on progged 850MB thermal profiles, temperatures will have a decidely autumn feel...with highs dropping into the 60s and lows tumbling into the 40s across the entire region Friday-Sunday. With the high progged to exert greater dominance in the weather over the region, it would appear that precip chances will be fairly low. Specifics in the medium range UA progs are hard to pin down as solutions are noisy and chaotic to say the least...but there does seem to be some agreement that WAA will develop over the Plains Friday night, with associated shower threat possibly working into western/sw portions of the FA Sat-Sun. Truett && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015 Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Light fog is possible at KCOU towards daybreak. Lgt/var winds at both KCOU and KUIN will become northerly to northeasterly after fropa this morning. Post-frontal MVFR stratus is expected and sprinkles are also possible. Specifics for KSUS, KCPS: Showers worked a bit farther north than previously anticipated and may reach KCPS within the next hour. Any rain will decrease the T-Td spread at KCPS and make fog more likely towards daybreak. T-Td spread is already low enough at KSUS to add a mention of fog towards daybreak. Otherwise, lgt/var winds will become northerly to northeasterly after fropa later this morning and increase to around 12 kts. Post-frontal MVFR stratus is expected and sprinkles are also possible during the day. Specifics for KSTL: Scattered showers have been making slow northward progress and later shifts may need to add VCSH if any stations south of Lambert start reporting rain reaching the ground. Lgt/var winds will become northerly to northeasterly today after fropa. Post-frontal MVFR stratus is expected and sprinkles are also possible during the day. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1158 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 .UPDATE: Issued at 943 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015 Updated forecast to bring scattered showers northwest of I-44 in Missouri and I-70 in Illinois. Showers have persisted this evening in area of low level moisture convergence underneath mid level trough axis extending northward from upper low currently over the Lower Mississippi Valley. CAMS are showing that these showers will persist through the night, so expanded the PoPs accordingly. Temperatures will likely not fall off too much tonight given the clouds and current dewpoints. Britt && .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015 Forecast area continues to get squeezed between upper level shortwave energy that is retrograding back to the north towards forecast area and next cold front moving in from the northwest. Showers currently trying to move into our far southern counties as of 20z. So will initially see isolated/scattered showers develop and advect north into forecast area through this evening and into the overnight hours. In the meantime, cold front will move closer to region from the northwest, but will not see any precipitation from it until after 12z Tuesday, just an increase in cloud cover. Because of this weather pattern, winds will be light and variable. As for overnight lows, once again to remain about 10 degrees above normal, in the low to mid 60s. Byrd .LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015 FA will remain on the northern fringes of the upper low drifting into the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow, while upper trof pushing into the upper Great Lakes will allow cold front that approaching northern sections of the FA late tonight to ooze across the region during the day. Some PoPs will be tied to both these features, but I`m really not sure that the 12z based MOS from either the NAM or GFS have a real good handle on the expected precip threat and/or trends. Mass and moisture fields would certainly suggest that southeast sections of the CWA will be on the northern fringes of the precip associated with the southern system on Tuesday, which also suggests that some MOS numbers in this section of the FA may be a bit too high (and this has certainly been the case for the past several days). However, the last few hours of the last several HRRR runs suggest precip blossoming very late tonight as far north to near the I44-I70 corridor...roughly near the northern trofing associated with the upper low. I have upped PoPs some over the southeast half of the CWA, but ultimately expect a pretty sharp PoP gradient that will be resolved in the nowcast time frame. Meanwhile across the north, expect a fairly large band of showers along and especially north of the cold front just north of our FA early Tuesday, with the showers working southeast and gradually diminishing in coverage with time as the cold front works across the region. Some low post-frontal shower threat will likely linger into the evening hours before the drier air behind the front scours out the low level moisture. The latest 12z guidance is continuing the trend of the last few days of being more bullish deepening the UA trof over the eastern CONUS during the latter half of the week, which in turn allows for a stronger intrusion of the Canadian high into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Based on progged 850MB thermal profiles, temperatures will have a decidely autumn feel...with highs dropping into the 60s and lows tumbling into the 40s across the entire region Friday-Sunday. With the high progged to exert greater dominance in the weather over the region, it would appear that precip chances will be fairly low. Specifics in the medium range UA progs are hard to pin down as solutions are noisy and chaotic to say the least...but there does seem to be some agreement that WAA will develop over the Plains Friday night, with associated shower threat possibly working into western/sw portions of the FA Sat-Sun. Truett && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015 Specifics for KUIN, KCOU: Light fog is possible at KCOU towards daybreak. Lgt/var winds at both KCOU and KUIN will become northerly to northeasterly after fropa this morning. Post-frontal MVFR stratus is expected and sprinkles are also possible. Specifics for KSUS, KCPS: Showers worked a bit farther north than previously anticipated and may reach KCPS within the next hour. Any rain will decrease the T-Td spread at KCPS and make fog more likely towards daybreak. T-Td spread is already low enough at KSUS to add a mention of fog towards daybreak. Otherwise, lgt/var winds will become northerly to northeasterly after fropa later this morning and increase to around 12 kts. Post-frontal MVFR stratus is expected and sprinkles are also possible during the day. Specifics for KSTL: Scattered showers have been making slow northward progress and later shifts may need to add VCSH if any stations south of Lambert start reporting rain reaching the ground. Lgt/var winds will become northerly to northeasterly today after fropa. Post-frontal MVFR stratus is expected and sprinkles are also possible during the day. Kanofsky && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1138 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION WITH SEVERAL PV ANOMALIES ROTATING AROUND IT. IN ADDITION...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW OVER THE E PAC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PV CONNECTION TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. CLOSER TO HOME...WEAKER PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS SRN WY ATTM GENERATING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS ERN WY...WITH ISOLD SHRA/-TSRA IN PORTIONS OF NC NEBR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MID LEVEL FGEN ACROSS THAT AREA. SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STALLED FROM NEAR LIMON CO TO NORTH OF GLD TO JUST S OF EAR TO S OF YANKTON SD. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 NEW COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD OVERNIGHT WITH MOST OF WESTERN AND NC NEBR REMAINING IN THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ATTENDANT TO A EWD ADVANCING PV ANOMALY AS MENTIONED WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN SD/NRN NEBR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT OVERNIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AREA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS PRESENT ON THE 305/310K LEVELS. ELEVATED WEAK TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS BROWN...ROCK AND HOLT COUNTIES STILL ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FGEN WITHIN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. INTEGRATING THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OVERNIGHT YIELDS AN AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA CURRENTLY OVER SWRN SD TO MOVE ACROSS NRN NEBR BUT THEN SOME MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE 06- 09Z TIME FRAME THAT MAY ALLOW REDEVELOPMENT WWD. MEANWHILE THE HRRR SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SWD ADVANCING FRONT PRIOR TO 06Z AND THEN PUSHING SEWD OVERNIGHT. WITH SEVERAL SMALL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TIMING AND LOCATION OF NEW DEVELOPMENT BECOMES DIFFICULT. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIP...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STRONGER THAN WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD LOW VSBYS. HENCE HAVE SIDED ON PATCHY FOG MENTION. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY SO WOULD EXPECT OCCASIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA ESPECIALLY IN SWRN NEBR. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN CONSIDERABLY DUE TO LOW CLOUD COVER AND ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 MODELS AGAIN COMING IN COOLER. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR THE MID TERM AND GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM. TOMORROW NIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST SEVERAL WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH RIDGE. ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH LLJ AND SOME LIFT. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING WITH DRIZZLE TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ECMWF WARMER THAN GFS. STRONG WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WITH SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COOL AT THE SURFACE WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT AS WARNER AIR AT THE SURFACE TO THE SOUTH LIFTED OVER THE COOLER AIR. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. TRANSITIONING TO RAINSHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. SHOWERS END SUNDAY WITH A WARMUP INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EAST AND 70S WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. 50S AND 60S SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015 SHORT TERM MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET AGL AFTER 07Z IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INCLUDING TIF...BBW AND LBF. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM BOTH PRIMARY MODELS SUPPORTS THAT FOR BBW AND LBF AND ONE OF THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT BULLETIN SUPPORTS IT FOR VTN. THOUGH CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THE INSTRUMENT CEILINGS SHOULD REACH MARGINAL VISUAL CONDITIONS LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...CEILINGS OF 3000-5000 FEET AGL WILL DOMINATE. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JWS SHORT TERM...JWS LONG TERM...POWER AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1249 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE EAST WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1240 AM TUE...SHRA CONT TO STREAM ONSHORE ESPCLY FROM HAT S. KEPT HIGHER POPS ALONG CST WITH LOWER POPS INLAND REST OF NIGHT PER RDR TRENDS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BUT SIGNIF CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT THREAT FOR DENSE FOG. PREV DISC...LATEST RADAR IMAGES CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST. POPS WERE ADJUSTED WITH THIS UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS. THE LATEST 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS RICH EASTERLY FLOW FROM SFC TO ABOUT 700 MB WITH PW OF 2.30 INCHES...SOME 2 TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA PROVIDING THE LIFT FOR THE SHOWERS. ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. SHOWER CHANCES AND ISOLATED THUNDER SHOULD RAMP BACK UP AGAIN NEAR THE COAST AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL CONTINUES TO BRING MORE ATLANTIC MOISTURE IN THE AREA. FOR INLAND AREAS...THREAT FOR FOG WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AS LIGHT TO CALM WINDS COMBINED WITH TODAY`S RAINFALL ACT TO PRIME THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR FOG AND VERY LOW STRATUS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/... AS OF 4 PM MON...ANOTHER UNSETTLED AND SHOWERY DAY ON TUESDAY EXPECTED WITH SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES EXPECTED. SHOWERS SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY...TRANSITIONING INLAND AS COASTAL TROUGH MIGRATES INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM EASTERLY TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL TRANSPIRE...WITH CAPE VALS AOA 2000 J/KG EXPECTED. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AREA WIDE WITH TD`S UNCOMFORABLY WARM WELL INTO THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO BE PLAGUED BY DIFFERENCES AND A LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...COMPLICATED PATTERN WITH TD #11 IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH AND IT`S ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN US. THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRIEFLY BECOME DISRUPTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THEN STALLS OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT A MODERATE N/NE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE LONG RANGE TRACK OF TD #11 IS UNCERTAIN, MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BE DRAWN TOWARD THE COAST WHILE A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES AOA 2" FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD ALSO BE PICKED UP BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND TRANSPORTED TO THE NORTH INTO OUR REGION. THE MODELS UNDERSTANDABLY ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE THIS COMPLEX SITUATION, THUS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS EACH DAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT DRIER AIR COULD FILTER INTO THE REGION SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND BUT THE TIMING OF THIS IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY THEN POTENTIAL MUCH COOLER ESP OVER INLAND AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHERE SOME DEEP INLAND AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70. NEXT WEEKEND...THE KEY TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA PUSHING THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME OFFSHORE AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO FINALLY FILTER INTO THE AREA. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THIS OCCURS WILL NEED MAINTAIN CHANCE LOW/SLIGHT POPS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST. A DRIER DEEP W/NW FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER AS DEEP TROF MOVES EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1240 AM TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR THRU EARLY TO MID MORN. LOW LVLS SATURATED AND ALREADY SEE GOOD DEAL OF IFR ST...THIS SHLD CONT AND POSS LOWER SOME AS WINDS BECOME LIGHTER. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCT SHRA MAY LIMIT FOG BUT SHLD GET SOME ESPCLY WELL INLAND. FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF/LIFT AROUND MID MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SCT TO POSS NUMEROUS SHRA THRU THE DAY. WILL LIKELY SEE MIX OF MVFR AND VFR THRU THE AFTN. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION MAKES FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD BUT PERIODIC SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS THAT FORM AS TROPICAL AIR AGAIN IS DRAWN BACK INTO EASTERN NC. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1240 AM TUE...NO CHANGES WITH LARGE E SWELLS KEEPING SEAS IN SCA RANGE. E WINDS EXPECTED TO GRAD DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE SE TODAY AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND SFC TRF MOVES INLAND. PREV DISC...MINOR TWEAKS WERE DONE WITH THIS UPDATE...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS E/NE 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. SAME GENERAL PATTERN PERSISTS WITH EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO ELEVATE SEAS...THOUGH THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 7 TO 9 FOOT RANGE AS OBSERVED AREA BUOYS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEAS WILL VERY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH STILL REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 9 FOOT RANGE. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN NEAR THE COAST FINALLY BEGINS TO MIGRATE INLAND...WITH WINDS VEERING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. LONG TERM /TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT/... AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS A MOSTLY PERSISTENT MODERATE N/NE FLOW AND ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE OVER THE NC WATERS IN A COMPLEX SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN. LONG RANGE TRACK OF TD#11 STILL UNCERTAIN BUT MAY HELP ENHANCE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE NC COAST LATE THIS WEEK. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO TEMPORARILY DIMINISH AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY TURN SOUTHERLY FOR A BRIEF TIME AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA LATE WED. BEHIND THE FRONT THE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT THURSDAY AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO (BRIEFLY) SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT ON WEDNESDAY THEN AS THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SEAS WILL BUILD BACK TO 6+ FT. OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS SEAS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 6 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 1240 AM TUE...CONTINUED VERY HIGH ASTRO TIDES WILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ACROSS CARTERET COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST TUE MORNING. HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AS 5 TO 8 FOOT SURF HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ095. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TL NEAR TERM...RF/SK/BM SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...JME/BTC AVIATION...RF/BTC MARINE...RF/BTC/TL/BM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
331 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. AN EXTENSIVE NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FOCUS ON THE FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW AFFECTS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... 145 AM UPDATE... MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA... WITH JUST SOME BRIEF AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...AHEAD OF INCREASING PWATS AND THE NOSE OF A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE EARLY MORNING...MIN TEMPS 15-20 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LOWS...IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CONCERNING HEAVY RAIN THREAT LATER TODAY THROUGH WED...THERE IS QUITE GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH A SLIGHTLY LESSER AGREEMENT OF THE PRECISE LOCATION. A LARGE QPF SPREAD OF GREATER THAN A FACTOR OF 2 EXISTS BETWEEN THE VERY WET NAM...AND THE GFS/GEFS/SREF/EC. GFS IS THE FURTHEST SE WITH THE QPF AXIS/FROM THE LAURELS TO NRN POCONOS...WHILE THE EC HAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS...75NM OR SO FURTHER NW. AREA RIVERS AND STREAM BASIN CAN HANDLE QUITE A LOT OF RAIN /3.5-4.5 INCHES OVER A 3-12 HOUR PERIOD/...WHICH IS WHERE THE BULK OF MODEL STORM TOTAL QPF LIES. HOWEVER...THE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF 8-11 INCHES PAINTED BY THE NAM FROM NEAR KJST AND KIDI...NORTHEAST TO KDUJ AND LELM WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY CAUSE SIGNIFCANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. FEEL THAT THE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF THE EXCESSIVE QPF IS OVERDONE ON THE NAM. HOWEVER...THE SYNPOTIC SETUP WITH PWAT ANOMALIES OF AROUND 3 SIGMA...AND WELL-DEFINED/SLOW MOVING JET ENTRANCE ABOVE THE SFC CFRONT...WILL COMBINE WITH GENERALLY LOW CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG TO BRING SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED TSRA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES OVER A 12 HOUR PERIOD. WPC QPF FORECAST FOR THROUGH 48 HOURS IS 2.5 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PENN AND THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. 1045 PM UPDATE... INTERESTING TO WATCH THE NEW 00Z NAM COME IN...BUT MOSTLY FOR WHAT IT SAYS FOR TUES/NIGHT. IN THE NEAR- TERM...NO CHANGES FORSEEN AS THE SPRINKLES ARE WELL- HANDLED AND REAL ORGANIZATION TO THE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. 745 PM UPDATE... SHOWERS WANING ALREADY AND HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND. THE SPRINKLES OUT THERE NOW MAY MAKE THE GROUND WET...BUT THEY ARE ALSO MOVING ALONG QUICKLY. THEREFORE A 20 POP IS ALL THAT IS NECESSARY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY 09Z...SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SLIDE INTO THE NWRN COS. PREV... PLUME OF 1.5" PW POOLED AHEAD OF SHEARING 5H TROF WITHIN 850 MB CONVERGENCE ZONE IS MAINTAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL WANE LATE TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK FORCING IN VERY MOIST AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY APPRECIABLE QPF TONIGHT...DESPITE THE COPIOUS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER AND SURGING DWPT WILL TRANSLATE TO A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH MINS BTWN 60 AND 65F FOR MOST. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... SET UP FOR TODAY IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE INTERESTING WITH TIME...WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FIRST THINGS FIRST HOWEVER...GULF COAST UPPER CUTOFF WILL DIRECT A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA DURING THE DAY TODAY...WHILE A SLOW MOVING SFC FRONT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES...REACHING NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES...BUT A GREATLY INCREASING PROBABILITY OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ISOLATED TSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE DESTABLIZE THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH REACHES +15C AT 850 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MY SOUTH. CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL COMING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /WHICH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE LOCALLY HEAVY/. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS PACKAGE. INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THIS BASED LARGELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS THIS AFT...WHICH SHOW CLOUD ELEMENTS OVER EASTERN NC WORKING NW. SITUATION LOOKS LIKE A PRE EVENT. SOME MEMBERS OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT THAT LOOKS A LITTLE HIGH. 1 TO 3 WITH SOME HIGHER AMTS LOOKS BETTER. CAN HANDLE THIS AMT OK...UNLESS ALL IN A SHORT TIME INTERVAL. LATER SHIFTS CAN ISSUE WATCHES IF NEEDED. DID UP POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED AM...AND PUT CHC OF THUNDER IN FCST. DID NOT DO MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES. LATER WED INTO EARLY FRIDAY...LEAST CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL LOOKING WET FOR SAT...BUT STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS. LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WOULD LIFT OUT FAST ENOUGH TO HAVE PART OF SUNDAY SEEING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR MONDAY. MORE DETAIL BELOW. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SIG RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PA TUES NIGHT/WED...AS SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWATS NR 3SD ABV NORMAL...COMBINED WITH MDL INSTABILITY AND SLOW MOVING FRONT SUPPORT THE IDEA OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1+ INCH AMTS...WITH MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS. GIVEN THE RECENT DRYNESS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING NOT A CONCERN. HOWEVER...WILL MENTION POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO. CONFIDENCE IN LINGERING WET WX APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL PA LATE THIS WEEK...AS ALL MDLS HAVE CONVERGED ON IDEA OF A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW CRAWLING UP THE MID ATL COAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE...NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPS BLW CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SETTLIGN IN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE S/SE. LIMITED IF ANY IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS ON TUE AS AREA OF RAIN EXPANDS OVER CENTRAL PA. MVFR/IFR CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AS RAIN ARRIVES EARY IN THE DAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR IN THE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PRECIP ARRIVES LATER AND REMAINS MAINLY LIGHT UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE DAY. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL ALSO BE POSS...BUT PROB MUCH TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY WED...WITH PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS TO CIGS AND VSBYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 5-10MPH. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTLOOK... TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS AND RAIN LIKELY...DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST. TUE NIGHT...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS IN RAIN. WED...WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS IN RAIN EARLY. TAPERING TO SCT SHOWERS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THU...MAINLY VFR/MFVR AM FOG AND ISOLD SHOWERS. FRI-SAT...CHC OF SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
216 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. AN EXTENSIVE NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FOCUS ON THE FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAIN TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW AFFECTS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... 145 AM UPDATE... MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE FCST AREA... WITH JUST SOME BRIEF AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...AHEAD OF INCREASING PWATS AND THE NOSE OF A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE EARLY MORNING...MIN TEMPS 15-20 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL LOWS...IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. CONCERNING HEAVY RAIN THREAT LATER TODAY THROUGH WED...THERE IS QUITE GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT...WITH A SLIGHTLY LESSER AGREEMENT OF THE PRECISE LOCATION. A LARGE QPF SPREAD OF GREATER THAN A FACTOR OF 2 EXISTS BETWEEN THE VERY WET NAM...AND THE GFS/GEFS/SREF/EC. GFS IS THE FURTHEST SE WITH THE QPF AXIS/FROM THE LAURELS TO NRN POCONOS...WHILE THE EC HAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE NW AND NCENT MTNS...75NM OR SO FURTHER NW. AREA RIVERS AND STREAM BASIN CAN HANDLE QUITE A LOT OF RAIN /3.5-4.5 INCHES OVER A 3-12 HOUR PERIOD/...WHICH IS WHERE THE BULK OF MODEL STORM TOTAL QPF LIES. HOWEVER...THE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF 8-11 INCHES PAINTED BY THE NAM FROM NEAR KJST AND KIDI...NORTHEAST TO KDUJ AND LELM WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY CAUSE SIGNIFCANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. FEEL THAT THE EXTENSIVE PLUME OF THE EXCESSIVE QPF IS OVERDONE ON THE NAM. HOWEVER...THE SYNPOTIC SETUP WITH PWAT ANOMALIES OF AROUND 3 SIGMA...AND WELL-DEFINED/SLOW MOVING JET ENTRANCE ABOVE THE SFC CFRONT...WILL COMBINE WITH GENERALLY LOW CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG TO BRING SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED TSRA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH HIGHLY LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES OVER A 12 HOUR PERIOD. WPC QPF FORECAST FOR THROUGH 48 HOURS IS 2.5 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PENN AND THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. 1045 PM UPDATE... INTERESTING TO WATCH THE NEW 00Z NAM COME IN...BUT MOSTLY FOR WHAT IT SAYS FOR TUES/NIGHT. IN THE NEAR- TERM...NO CHANGES FORSEEN AS THE SPRINKLES ARE WELL- HANDLED AND REAL ORGANIZATION TO THE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. 745 PM UPDATE... SHOWERS WANING ALREADY AND HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND. THE SPRINKLES OUT THERE NOW MAY MAKE THE GROUND WET...BUT THEY ARE ALSO MOVING ALONG QUICKLY. THEREFORE A 20 POP IS ALL THAT IS NECESSARY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...BY 09Z...SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SLIDE INTO THE NWRN COS. PREV... PLUME OF 1.5" PW POOLED AHEAD OF SHEARING 5H TROF WITHIN 850 MB CONVERGENCE ZONE IS MAINTAINING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL WANE LATE TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WEAK FORCING IN VERY MOIST AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY APPRECIABLE QPF TONIGHT...DESPITE THE COPIOUS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. CLOUD COVER AND SURGING DWPT WILL TRANSLATE TO A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH MINS BTWN 60 AND 65F FOR MOST. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... SET UP FOR TODAY IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE INTERESTING WITH TIME...WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO TAKING SHAPE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FIRST THINGS FIRST HOWEVER...GULF COAST UPPER CUTOFF WILL DIRECT A MORE IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PA DURING THE DAY TODAY...WHILE A SLOW MOVING SFC FRONT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES...REACHING NORTHWEST PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES...BUT A GREATLY INCREASING PROBABILITY OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ISOLATED TSTORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM TROF AND DEEP MOISTURE DESTABLIZE THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH REACHES +15C AT 850 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MY SOUTH. CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL COMING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /WHICH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE LOCALLY HEAVY/. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER MILD GIVEN THE TROPICAL AIR MASS...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS PACKAGE. INCREASING CONCERN ABOUT HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THIS BASED LARGELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS THIS AFT...WHICH SHOW CLOUD ELEMENTS OVER EASTERN NC WORKING NW. SITUATION LOOKS LIKE A PRE EVENT. SOME MEMBERS OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN...BUT THAT LOOKS A LITTLE HIGH. 1 TO 3 WITH SOME HIGHER AMTS LOOKS BETTER. CAN HANDLE THIS AMT OK...UNLESS ALL IN A SHORT TIME INTERVAL. LATER SHIFTS CAN ISSUE WATCHES IF NEEDED. DID UP POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED AM...AND PUT CHC OF THUNDER IN FCST. DID NOT DO MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES. LATER WED INTO EARLY FRIDAY...LEAST CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL LOOKING WET FOR SAT...BUT STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS. LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WOULD LIFT OUT FAST ENOUGH TO HAVE PART OF SUNDAY SEEING SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. WENT WITH A DRY FCST FOR MONDAY. MORE DETAIL BELOW. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SIG RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PA TUES NIGHT/WED...AS SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWATS NR 3SD ABV NORMAL...COMBINED WITH MDL INSTABILITY AND SLOW MOVING FRONT SUPPORT THE IDEA OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1+ INCH AMTS...WITH MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS. GIVEN THE RECENT DRYNESS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING NOT A CONCERN. HOWEVER...WILL MENTION POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO. CONFIDENCE IN LINGERING WET WX APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL PA LATE THIS WEEK...AS ALL MDLS HAVE CONVERGED ON IDEA OF A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW CRAWLING UP THE MID ATL COAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE...NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPS BLW CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RADAR AND SATELLITE RELATIVELY QUIET NOW...QUIET BEFORE THE STORM. MODELS AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW CEILINGS WILL EXPAND OVERNIGHT BUT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR SHOULD DEVELOP. BY SUNRISE THERE WILL BE SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR. MODELS STILL SHOW RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY FROM NW TO SE. TIMED THE RAIN BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SREF. THIS SHOWS RAPID INCREASE CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR IN NORTHWEST AREAS NEAR KBFD BY 10-12Z. RAIN SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND TRIED TO SHOW TIMING OF MORE ORGANIZED RAIN THROUGH JST-AOO-UNV- IPT AND MDT/LNS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD GET A GOOD RAINFALL BEST RAIN AND LOWERED CIGS/VIS AT THIS TIME COULD BE OVER CENTRAL PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. DID NOT PUT THUNDER IN TAFS BUT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER IS AN ISSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 5-10MPH IN THE SHALLOW COOL MOIST AIR. THE WARM AIR LIFTING OVER THIS TUESDAY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF OUR RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. MVFR AND IFR LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLE LIFR IN AREAS OF FOG AND MORE INTENSE RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTLOOK... TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS AND RAIN LIKELY...MOVING WEST TO EAST. TUE NIGHT...LOW CIGS/RAIN AND SHOWERS LIKELY. WED...LOW CIGS EARLY. RAIN TO SCT SHOWERS IN AFTERNOON. THU...MAINLY VFR/MFVR AM FOG AND ISOLD SHOWERS. FRI-SAT...CHC OF SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN AVIATION...GRUMM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
516 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 06Z/2AM TONIGHT. THE 00Z GFS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE WERE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THIS LOW THAN THE NAM. ALL MODEL SHOWED INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND UPSLOPE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL AIDE IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS REMAINED ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND THE IMPACTS FROM THIS RAIN FOR TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STARTING OUT VERY MILD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL RANGE FROM 1.6 TO 2.2 TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD BACK RISE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 0315 AM EDT TUESDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW. DESPITE THE PASSING OF THE FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS UNITED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO-TENN VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS TROUGH COULD BECOME A CLOSED LOW ON THURSDAY. IF THIS CLOSED LOW DOES TAKE SHAPE...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. TO PUT A GOOD SPIN ON A DREARY FORECAST...THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ROUGH AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS PRODUCE A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS. WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED PLAYING FIELD...MODERATE RAIN RATES AND A RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING LINE OF STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SOME THUNDER MAY BE HEARD WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW. MORNING RAIN AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COOL NORTHERLY AIR AND RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE 5F-10F BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH PAIRED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PAIRING WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS AT ROUGHLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. ONCE THIS TAKES PLACE...ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND NOTABLY COOLER AIR ADVANCING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 145 AM EDT TUESDAY... POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/11AM THIS MORNING. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR VALUES THROUGH 00Z/8PM. IFR STRATUS AND MVFR FOG WILL FILL BACK IN AFTER 00Z/8PM TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... MODELS SUGGEST POOR FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS A LARGE GEOGRAPHIC AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY... LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRACKING FROM AROUND RALEIGH TO BLACKSBURG SINCE AROUND 8PM. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN LESS THAN THREE HOURS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS RAIN WAS FALLING OVER COUNTIES THAT ALREADY HAD AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MODELS WERE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE UPSLOPE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE ONGOING FEED OF MOISTURE AND TRAINING SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A MAJORITY OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO RUNOFF...INITIALLY IMPACTING SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH RAPID RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. LATER TODAY AND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL RESPOND TO THE RAINFALL. FLOODING ON THE RIVERS IS NOT CERTAIN BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ012>020- 022>024-032>035-043>045-058. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001>006- 018>020. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AMS/PM HYDROLOGY...NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
844 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .DISCUSSION... SENT OUT AN EARLY UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO TO CAPE SOUTHWARD. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. BASED ON SPEED ESTIMATES THIS RAIN SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING. LATEST WRF AND HRRR THEN KEEP PRECIP INTO THE AFT MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE DUE TO MORE CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. THIS ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH THE GFS INDICATING DEEPER MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL S/W SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA LATER INTO THE AFT. HOWEVER ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND ADDITIONAL HEATING EARLY IN THE AFT MAY LEAD TO HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE. CLOUD COVER/RAIN THIS MORNING SHOULD KEEP HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. && .AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDS OCCURRING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE RAIN OR ANY ISO STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS. AS RAIN SHIFTS EAST SCT SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS GENERALLY EXPECTED INTO THE AFT...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES REMAIN CLOUD AND LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. && .MARINE... TODAY AND TONIGHT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WIND WAVES AND GUSTS AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF ~10 SEC SWELL DUE TO LARGE FETCH AREA OVER THE MID ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS INTO THE EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. && .COASTAL...THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THE EVENING AS ELEVATED SWELLS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WITH DEPARTURES UP TO 1 TO 1.5 FT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE LEVELS MAY CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AND WAVE RUN UP TO THE BASE OF DUNES ALONG MANY ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES. THE NEXT TWO HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AT: DAYTONA BEACH......925 AM TUESDAY...953 PM TUESDAY PORT CANAVERAL.....911 AM TUESDAY...934 PM TUESDAY SEBASTIAN INLET....923 AM TUESDAY...940 PM TUESDAY FT PIERCE INLET....940 AM TUESDAY...957 PM TUESDAY && .HYDROLOGY...THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR IS JUST UNDER 3.0 FT THIS MORNING...OR ABOUT 0.16 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HIGHER THAN NORMAL HIGH TIDES DOWNSTREAM HAVE AFFECTED THE DISCHARGE RATE BACKING UP THE RIVER LEVEL. RIVER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY WHILE REMAINING IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH MID WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER RAIN NEAR THE BASIN THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CAUSE MINOR RISES DEPENDING ON ANY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY- SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE. AM...NONE. && $$ WEITLICH/KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
611 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 08Z water vapor imagery shows several pieces of energy around an upper ridge centered off the coast of the CA Baja. A couple closed lows were noted over the TX/LA gulf coast and over the Pacific, west of San Fransisco. Meanwhile a broad upper level trough was located over the Hudson Bay with a shortwave moving through the southern periphery of this trough across NEB. At the surface, a cold front has just move into northern portions of the forecast area and was located from near CNK to MYZ. Forcing for precip today and tonight appears to be limited as models take the PVA from the shortwave over NEB to the east into IA. As seen on the 00Z TOP RAOB, there is still a fair amount of dry air ahead of the front and not a whole lot of instability. Because of this the models have been backing off on their QPF progs. Do not feel comfortable removing POPs altogether, but have trended them lower through the day today. The biggest factor that gives me pause is the trend to continue developing some very modest surface based CAPE (around 500 J/kg) ahead of the front across east central KS this afternoon. Although models show the low level convergence along the boundary to be almost nonexistent by the time this instability develops. So in general think measurable rainfall will be hard to come by today, but not impossible. Temps could be a little tricky in that if there is some insolation behind the front, highs could be a little warmer than expected since there does not appear to be a really cold airmass across NEB right now. For now have continued with highs near 80 in the southern counties with readings expected to be around 70 over the northern counties. Tonight appears to be somewhat similar in that large scale forcing is lacking. The one thing of note is the models suggest a convectively induced vort max could move through central KS this evening from the high plains. The warm air advection pattern does not look as strong in the solutions as previous nights and isentropic lift is kind of shallow and not as well organized as it could be, focused mainly across north central KS. So this is where the forecast continues to show some small (20 to 30 percent) POPs. Models suggest the stronger push of cold and dry air will occur overnight. Therefore have trended min temps cooler ranging from the upper 40s north to the mid 50s south. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday) ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 An unsettled upper air pattern continues in the extended with a series of systems, mostly weak, impact the area while bringing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. These systems in turn, hold the cooler airmass in place with highs below normal through early next week. Mid level ridging strengthens over the Inter-mountain West as the open shortwave trough amplifies across the west coast. Weak embedded pieces of energy appear to be consistent with guidance, rounding the northern periphery of the ridge before tracking southward across central KS. Therefore have maintained slight to chc pops over north central KS while most of the area remains dry Wednesday to early Friday. Weak easterly winds at or below 10 kts through this period will continue to advect cooler air into the region. Latest guidance is continuing to pick up on the breadth of these cooler temps by lowering highs to near 70 degrees on Wednesday and down to the middle and upper 60s on Thursday. Cloud coverage will also play a role with temps as mostly cloudy skies for north central KS allows for cooler afternoons in the 60s and warmer evenings in the 50s. Meanwhile over far northeast Kansas and east central areas, clear skies will radiate cooler air to the surface with lows both evenings in the middle to upper 40s. A stronger and more organized upper trough will shift eastward over the Rockies and into the central plains by Friday afternoon into Saturday. Confidence in this system is beginning to increase with similar timing from the latest GFS with the ECMWF and GEM. Best chances for precip centers when the trough axis enters late Friday evening into Saturday with scattered activity throughout the day. Poor lapse rates with no instability signals rain showers expected. In addition, cloudy skies and cold air advection may subsequently only raise highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s both Friday and Saturday. System exits late Saturday evening with partly cloudy skies returning. Sunday begins the warming trend as highs recover in the mid 60s, warming to the lower 70s by Monday. Pattern becomes more uncertain at this point as the next upper wave enters the west coast. Strength of the ridging off the west coast will determine whether this system brings decent precip back into the area by the ECMWF or digs it straight south and east over the southern plains on the GFS. Will focus chances for showers mainly south of Interstate 70 at this time on Monday. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Wednesday MORNING) ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 With models taking the best forcing and deeper moisture north and east of the terminals, think chances for precip are to small to include in the forecast. There is an area of MVFR CIGS that trail the front by a couple hours. Biggest uncertainty is whether they make it into the terminals and how long they stick around. Since both the NAM and RAP show higher RH values making it in, will go ahead and put it in. Although the RAP is quick to mix out the low level moisture so have only put the CIGS in as a tempo for now. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...Bowen AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
724 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SRN MANITOBA. ACCOMPANYING 12HR HGT FALLS UP TO 70M ARE DEEPENING TROF A BIT CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPR LKS. ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THRU UPR MI...ALLOWING AN INFLUX OF MUCH COOLER AIR WITH 00Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -5C AT THE PAS MANITOBA AND -2C AT YPL. DESPITE THE CHILL OF THIS INCOMING AIRMASS RELATIVE TO THE WARM LK WATERS /AS HI AS 15C OVER WRN LK SUP/...DRYNESS OF THE LLVL AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM RAOBS AND LARGER SCALE ACYC NW FLOW TO THE E OF SFC HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS HAVE PREVENTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LK CLDS. PWATS AT THE PAS AND YPL WERE AROUND 0.25 INCH. UNDER THE SHARP PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF THE HI...NW WINDS HAVE GUSTED UP TO 30 KTS AT SOME OF THE HIER PLATFORMS ON LK SUP. THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS STREAKING ACRS THE UPR LKS ON THE NRN FLANK OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST...BUT PCPN/THICKER CLDS ARE CLOSER TO DEEP MSTR WELL TO THE S. MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON TEMPS TNGT AND NEED FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. TODAY...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHRTWV THRU NW ONTARIO AND ATTENDANT COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG...LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE WL DOMINATE AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES CENTER TO SHIFT NEAR WRN LK SUP BY 00Z THIS EVNG. GUSTY NW WINDS...REACHING NEAR 30 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF CLOSE TO LK SUP UNDER STRONG CAA THIS MRNG WL ADVECT THE DRIER LLVL AIR INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME SCT CU COULD DVLP WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS AND ACYC FLOW WL BRING ABOUT A MOSUNNY DAY. DESPITE THIS SUNSHINE...H85 TEMPS NO HIER THAN 2C WL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES. THE STRONG NW WINDS OVER LK SUP WL BRING HIER WAVES UP TO 5 FT AND A HI SWIM RISK ALONG THE BEACHES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. TNGT...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS IS FCST TO STRETCH FM NEAR JAMES BAY ACRS WRN UPR MI AND INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. UNDER LGT WINDS AND MOCLR SKIES WITH PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25 INCH...EXPECT MIN TEMPS OVER THE WRN CWA TO PLUMMET BLO 32 AT MANY PLACES OVER THE INTEIOR W HALF. ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR E HALF MAY SEE THE MECURY TUMBLE BLO 32 AS WELL...A BIT TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT/HIER H925 WINDS UP TO 15-20KT WL LIMIT THE AREA OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LK SHORES...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP E OF THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI S OF ESCANABA...SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH MIN TEMPS HOLDING AOA 40. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO MAINTAIN FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR W HALF. INCLUDED DICKINSON COUNTY IN THIS LATEST VERSION AS WINDS THERE WL BE SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT. ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA TO INDICATE THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF FROST AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES GIVES WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD TO OVER 1042MB BY 12Z FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. DUE TO THE SFC RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER. AFTER WIDESPREAD FROST EARLY ON...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST AND NCNTRL CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NAM/GFS/GEM- REGIONAL SHOWING POCKET OF HIGHER H85 RH AND H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C WHILE WATER TEMPS ARE 13-15C. OVERALL DRYNESS OF AIRMASS AND LACK OF CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BLO H85 RESULT IN MOST CLOUDS OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR NCNTRL... SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS OF MAIN MODELS. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY STAY IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA. CHILLY NIGHT WITH FROST LIKELY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEADY EAST WINDS ABOVE 10 KTS H95-H85 BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND PWATS LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES...NEAR SFC LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE AND MIN TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE MORE IN THE UPR 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. COOL AIRMASS PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY IN THE 50S...BUT THIS TIME WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. THOUGH SFC RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AIRMASS CHANGES LITTLE AND IN FACT...PWATS ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS CHECKING IN LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. LOWERED MINS TOWARD COOLER MEX GUIDANCE AND ADDED MENTION OF FROST. COOLEST READINGS IN LOW 30S WILL BE FOR THE INTERIOR. BY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW TROUGH OR AT LEAST A PORTION OF IT RETROGRADING WEST BETWEEN UPPER RIDGES OVER MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS FM MODELS THAT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE THIS WEEK WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND TO BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST EASTERN PART OF CWA. TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN COULD BE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY TROPICAL SYSTEM JOAQUIN LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OR ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...BETTER AGREEMENT THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER 1040MB CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL KEEP RIDGE AND DRY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO AT LEAST FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. AGREEMENT DECREASES BY LATER WEEKEND DUE TO HOW FAR WEST MODELS BRING SFC LOW TIED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTH FM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. 00Z RUNS VARY WILDLY FM STRONGER SFC LOW AS FAR WEST AS GEORGIAN BAY PER THE GFS AND MORE OVER THE EAST COAST FM THE GEM-NH AND ECMWF. THOUGH GFS SOLUTION IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN IT HAS SHOWED IT OCCASIONALLY IN THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT GEM-NH SHOWED A DAY AGO. GIVEN THE VOLITILITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS WHICH SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAINLY OVER THE EAST CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY COOL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DURING THE DAYTIME AND MID 30S TO MID 40S DURING THE NIGHTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 GUSTY NNW WINDS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF HI PRES MOVING E THRU MN WILL ADVECT VERY DRY AIR INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TERMINALS THIS FCST PERIOD. AS THE HI PRES MOVES CLOSER LATER TODAY AND DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING SUBSIDES...THE GUSTY WINDS WL DIMINISH AOB 5 KTS BY 30/00Z. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT E OF HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT NNW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT OVER THE WEST HALF AS THE HI DRIFTS NEARLY OVERHEAD...BUT N VEERING NE WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E UNDER TIGHTER GRADIENT FARTHER FROM THE HI PRES RIDGE AXIS. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS SLOWLY ENE AND INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A STEADY 15-25KT ENE WIND WILL PERSIST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...KC MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1020 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .UPDATE...CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH JUST A FEW VERY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS OVER THE DELTA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH HI-TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MODELS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED RECENTLY...AND HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FEEL THE CURRENT FORECAST OF AT LEAST CHANCE RAINSHOWERS IS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED THE WEATHER AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT OTHER THAN THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK./15/ .DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT "WET" WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE ARKLAMISS HAS UNDER-ACHIEVED IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...AND WITH DRIER AIR POISED TO MOVE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK...WE EXPECT FIRE WEATHER DANGER TO BE ON THE INCREASE. TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...RECENT NWP MODEL OUTPUT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND ACCURATE WITH THE SHORT TERM SCENARIO. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE UPPER TX COAST/SW LA IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF OPENING UP...AND IT SHOULD SHEAR EASTWARD AS HEIGHT FALLS SEND A A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES AND WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. HAVE CONTINUED TO GIVE WEIGHT TO THE DRIER HRRR GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT PERFORMANCE AND HAVE CUT BACK ON CONSENSUS POPS SOME...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT HRRR IS LOOKING A BIT WETTER. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKY GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME CLOUD BREAKS AGAIN AND HAVE FOLLOWED A WARMER BLEND OF GUIDANCE BASED ON WHAT TRANSPIRED MONDAY. /EC/ THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY HAS FAILED TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD HELPFUL PRECIP DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TIGHTENING AROUND A SOLUTION WHERE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION OF A WEAK EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WITH NEWLY-FORMED TS JOAQUIN STRENGTHENS SAID TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL JOAQUIN COULD BE A MAJOR WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEFORE THE COMING WEEKEND IS OVER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY HIGH IT WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THE MENTIONED SYNOPTIC INTERACTION WITH THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SERIOUS PATTERN AMPLIFICATION...LIKELY RESULTING IN A FEW DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES BETWEEN THURSDAY AND THIS WEEKEND. OF COURSE THESE COLD FRONTS WILL USHER IN SOME RELATIVELY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SPECTER OF CASCADING DROUGHT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ARKLAMISS (EXCEPT MAYBE IN PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MS) THIS PATTERN HAS POTENTIAL TO INCREASE FIRE DANGER MARKEDLY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECASTS DO NOT SHOW DAYTIME RH VALUES DROPPING OFF BELOW 25 PERCENT IN THE LONG RANGE ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES) IF DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD BE DEEPER THAN NWP MODELS ANTICIPATE AT THIS JUNCTURE. DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY FROM THE NORTH...ADDING TO THE CONCERN. FOR THIS PACKAGE WE HAVE INTRODUCED AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO EXPAND THIS RISK IN TIME AND SPACE IF FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE. IN FACT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE PATTERN SETTING UP LATE THIS WEEK COULD DIG IN AND LAST THROUGH THE DEFINED LONG TERM PERIOD IF BAROCLINIC TROUGH INTERACTION WITH JOAQUIN IS EXTREME AND PERSISTENT. OF COURSE THAT WOULD ONLY WORSEN DROUGHT AND PROLONG POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER...WHILE A BRIEFER INTERACTION WOULD ALLOW AMPLIFICATION TO BREAK DOWN MORE QUICKLY AND PERHAPS BRING BACK SOME RAIN CHANCES BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /BB/ && .AVIATION...MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE SLOWLY BEEN LIFTING BUT REMAIN MVFR TO IFR. EXPECT THESE LOW CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BACK TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY BUT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS WITH RAINFALL...DONT EXPECT MUCH AND WILL KEEP SOME VCSH/SHRA IN TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. /28/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 83 68 83 63 / 39 24 26 6 MERIDIAN 83 67 82 62 / 36 31 41 14 VICKSBURG 83 67 84 61 / 41 23 10 4 HATTIESBURG 85 69 86 65 / 33 29 37 16 NATCHEZ 83 67 84 62 / 35 23 10 6 GREENVILLE 84 68 83 60 / 40 26 10 5 GREENWOOD 84 67 81 59 / 45 28 16 5 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ /EC/BB/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1009 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .UPDATE... FOR MORNING UPDATE. && .DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD. CURRENTLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS QUIET IN REGARDS TO THUNDER. KEPT IN MENTION OF THUNDER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. DROPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST AS THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH AND EAST TODAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT LEAST 60 POPS SINCE SOME SHORT TERM MODELS WANT TO DEVELOP A BIT MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. && .AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S. BNA/CKV/CSV...A MESSY DAY IS SHAPING UP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ALOFT AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST HRRR DOESN`T SHOW PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS, BUT MOST PLACES WILL STILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY, HENCE THE HIGH POP`S. SO LOOK FOR PERIODS OF RAIN, FOG, AND LOW CIGS THIS MORNING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY MID-EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG TONIGHT, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF MOST OF THE FOG, SO WILL JUST GO WITH LOW CIGS. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ BARNWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
624 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S. BNA/CKV/CSV...A MESSY DAY IS SHAPING UP ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING ALOFT AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST HRRR DOESN`T SHOW PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS, BUT MOST PLACES WILL STILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TODAY, HENCE THE HIGH POP`S. SO LOOK FOR PERIODS OF RAIN, FOG, AND LOW CIGS THIS MORNING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY MID-EVENING AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG TONIGHT, BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF MOST OF THE FOG, SO WILL JUST GO WITH LOW CIGS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015/ DISCUSSION...IT WAS CLOUDY AND MILD ACROSS THE MID STATE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES HANGING IN THE LOWER 70S. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR CKV. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTH. && SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A VERY MOIST FLOW OF AIR UP ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES DURING THE DAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PHASES IN WITH MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH TONIGHT AND STARTS TO PULL EASTWARD, BRINGING A SURFACE DEW POINT FRONT TO NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z/WED. EXPECT FRONT TO SAG ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, WHERE TEMPS WILL PROBABLY ONLY RISE 3 TO 5 DEGS, AND HIGHS TOP OUT NEAR 70. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, EXPECT A SLIGHTLY GREATER TEMP RISE, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. QPF TOTALS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH OVER EASTERN COUNTIES, TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. SO, BELIEVE ALL AREAS WILL GET A DECENT SOAKING. QPF AMOUNTS DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY, WITH AMOUNTS FORECAST TO BE MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH. UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY, WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY NOON, AND OVER EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU NOT EVEN MAKING IT OUT THE 60S. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST. LONG TERM...EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK, KEEPING AT LEAST BKN CIGS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MID STATE THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AT WEEK`S END, WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. FRESH NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT SEEM EVEN CHILLIER. LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 76 68 72 60 / 100 50 30 10 CLARKSVILLE 76 64 69 56 / 80 40 20 10 CROSSVILLE 73 65 71 58 / 100 60 60 30 COLUMBIA 78 68 74 59 / 90 50 40 10 LAWRENCEBURG 77 68 75 59 / 90 50 40 10 WAVERLY 78 65 69 58 / 80 40 30 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
937 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM EDT TUESDAY... LATEST FORECAST UPDATE REFLECTS CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN FROM STOKES COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH PATRICK COUNTY...ACROSS FLOYD AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE PATRICK COUNTY MEETS FLOYD COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS OF 930...ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH 2 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES...IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS PATRICK COUNTY. AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO THREE INCHES IS LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THIS AREA THROUGH NOON. LATEST RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CARRIES ABNORMALLY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED CLOSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF MONTGOMERY...FLOYD AND PATRICK COUNTIES. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE RAPIDLY DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH MANY OF THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS FROM STOKES COUNTY NC THROUGH MONTGOMERY COUNTY VA SWELLING OUT OF THEIR BANKS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 06Z/2AM TONIGHT. THE 00Z GFS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE WERE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THIS LOW THAN THE NAM. ALL MODEL SHOWED INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND UPSLOPE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL AIDE IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS REMAINED ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND THE IMPACTS FROM THIS RAIN FOR TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STARTING OUT VERY MILD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL RANGE FROM 1.6 TO 2.2 TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD BACK RISE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 0315 AM EDT TUESDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW. DESPITE THE PASSING OF THE FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS UNITED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO-TENN VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS TROUGH COULD BECOME A CLOSED LOW ON THURSDAY. IF THIS CLOSED LOW DOES TAKE SHAPE...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. TO PUT A GOOD SPIN ON A DREARY FORECAST...THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ROUGH AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS PRODUCE A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS. WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED PLAYING FIELD...MODERATE RAIN RATES AND A RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING LINE OF STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SOME THUNDER MAY BE HEARD WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW. MORNING RAIN AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COOL NORTHERLY AIR AND RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE 5F-10F BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH PAIRED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PAIRING WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS AT ROUGHLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. ONCE THIS TAKES PLACE...ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND NOTABLY COOLER AIR ADVANCING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY... POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/11AM THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR VALUES THROUGH 00Z/8PM. IFR STRATUS AND MVFR FOG WILL FILL BACK IN AFTER 00Z/8PM TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... MODELS SUGGEST POOR FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS A LARGE GEOGRAPHIC AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY... LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRACKING FROM AROUND RALEIGH TO BLACKSBURG SINCE AROUND 8PM. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN LESS THAN THREE HOURS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS RAIN WAS FALLING OVER COUNTIES THAT ALREADY HAD AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MODELS WERE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE UPSLOPE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE ONGOING FEED OF MOISTURE AND TRAINING SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A MAJORITY OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO RUNOFF...INITIALLY IMPACTING SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH RAPID RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. LATER TODAY AND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL RESPOND TO THE RAINFALL. FLOODING ON THE RIVERS IS NOT CERTAIN BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ012>020- 022>024-032>035-043>045-058. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001>006- 018>020. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/NF SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AMS/PM HYDROLOGY...NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
748 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 06Z/2AM TONIGHT. THE 00Z GFS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE WERE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THIS LOW THAN THE NAM. ALL MODEL SHOWED INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND UPSLOPE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL AIDE IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS REMAINED ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND THE IMPACTS FROM THIS RAIN FOR TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STARTING OUT VERY MILD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL RANGE FROM 1.6 TO 2.2 TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD BACK RISE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 0315 AM EDT TUESDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW. DESPITE THE PASSING OF THE FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS UNITED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO-TENN VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS TROUGH COULD BECOME A CLOSED LOW ON THURSDAY. IF THIS CLOSED LOW DOES TAKE SHAPE...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. TO PUT A GOOD SPIN ON A DREARY FORECAST...THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ROUGH AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS PRODUCE A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS. WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED PLAYING FIELD...MODERATE RAIN RATES AND A RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING LINE OF STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SOME THUNDER MAY BE HEARD WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW. MORNING RAIN AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COOL NORTHERLY AIR AND RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE 5F-10F BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH PAIRED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PAIRING WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS AT ROUGHLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. ONCE THIS TAKES PLACE...ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND NOTABLY COOLER AIR ADVANCING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY... POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z/11AM THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR VALUES THROUGH 00Z/8PM. IFR STRATUS AND MVFR FOG WILL FILL BACK IN AFTER 00Z/8PM TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... MODELS SUGGEST POOR FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS A LARGE GEOGRAPHIC AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY... LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRACKING FROM AROUND RALEIGH TO BLACKSBURG SINCE AROUND 8PM. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN LESS THAN THREE HOURS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS RAIN WAS FALLING OVER COUNTIES THAT ALREADY HAD AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MODELS WERE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE UPSLOPE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE ONGOING FEED OF MOISTURE AND TRAINING SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A MAJORITY OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO RUNOFF...INITIALLY IMPACTING SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH RAPID RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. LATER TODAY AND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL RESPOND TO THE RAINFALL. FLOODING ON THE RIVERS IS NOT CERTAIN BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ012>020- 022>024-032>035-043>045-058. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001>006- 018>020. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AMS/PM HYDROLOGY...NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1006 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .UPDATE... RAIN CONTINUES TO HOLD ON THIS MORNING...THOUGH RADAR REFLECTIVITIES HAVE BEEN DECREASING THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER TO FORECAST HIGHS...WHICH ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE RAIN SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 19Z. CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT/ SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE BASE OF A 250 MB UPPER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THEN TROUGH MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS RATHER STRONG IN A NARROW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO REACH NEARLY 1.6 INCHES...SO SOME MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. 700 MB RH VALUES DRY FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND ARE VERY DRY BY TONIGHT. 850 MB RH IS DRY BY NOON BUT 925 MB RH STAYS BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PCT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING. THEN AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ALONG WITH QUIET BUT COOLER CONDITIONS. LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE COOLER THAN INLAND DURING THE DAY AND WARMER AT NIGHT. THE 850MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND THE 3-5C RANGE ...A STARK CONTRAST TO TEMPS OF 14C THAT WERE OVERHEAD YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S INLAND. EXPECTING TEMPS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE THRESHOLD FOR FROST IN THE MKX AREA... EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY IN THE MARQUETTE/ GREEN LAKE COUNTY AREA. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING EACH AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS AND GUSTS AND ALSO LOW DEWPOINTS. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING THIS WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHWEST OVER WISCONSIN DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS THAT UPPER LOWS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND EAST COAST AREAS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY AND SOME OF MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME AND SHOULD BRING CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST WI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS THE ECMWF TRIES TO MOVE A SYSTEM STRAIGHT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY AND THE GFS HANGS ONTO THE DRY PATTERN THROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR RAPIDLY SPREADING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BRING VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY CAUSE MVFR CIGS TO LINGER LONGER. MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT FOR BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WAVES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ644>646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643. && $$ UPDATE...DDV TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN...CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS...IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST DURING THE WEEK, POSSIBLY REACHING THE OFFSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 3 PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT HAS ADVANCED EASTWARD INTO WRN NY AND NW PA, STRETCHING BACK INTO THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BUT ITS RIDGE AXIS STILL EXTENDED WESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH IS FINALLY LOSING ITS GRIP OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MOISTENED THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW 70S AND SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL BLENDED PWATS WERE AROUND 2 INCHES. THERE WERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLIER IN THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE REACHED AND SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BETTER ORGANIZED AS THEY LIFT NORTHWARD THRU THE DELAWARE VALLEY. USED THE HRRR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY TO HELP POPULATE POP GRIDS THRU 00Z AS THE GUIDANCE ACCURATELY PREDICTED THESE INITIAL SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO OUR WEST. THE STEADY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD, CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE COAST. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. IN COLLABORATION WITH WPC/MARFC, FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY AS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN FROM 12Z GUIDANCE HAD CONTINUED TO TREND FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. QPF (INCLUDING THE ADDITIONAL LIGHT QPF TOMORROW) RANGE FROM LESS THAN AN INCH EAST OF I-95 TO 2 INCHES IN THE POCONOS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OVERNIGHT OR EVEN A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD. THE EXTENT OF ANY FLOODING SHOULD BE LOW DUE TO THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, BUT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN OR JUST WEST OF OUR FORECAST EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD NYC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. THE MOST WIDESPREAD OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MORNING BUT THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT OVERHEAD, BUT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WELL TO OUR NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND. TOOK THIS INTO ACCOUNT WITH THE HOURLY POPS, WHICH DECREASE AS WE PROGRESS THRU THE DAY TOMORROW. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST. IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN NJ AND DELMARVA ACCORDING TO THE NAM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...AN ABNORMALLY WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST FOR THE AREA FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND... THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES, KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLOW AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND PERHAPS FROM TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN...TO STREAM NORTHWARD, PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXACT TIMING OF THESE EPISODES OF RAIN THIS FAR OUT IS PROBLEMATIC, BUT HOPEFULLY WE`LL BE ABLE TO FINE- TUNE THIS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. PLEASE SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. THE STRONG SURFACE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL, AND WILL INCREASE TIDAL ANOMOLIES TO THE POINT WHERE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEAR FUTURE. IN TERMS OF WINDS, IF JOAQUIN PASSES CLOSE TO THE COAST, WE WILL LIKELY HAVE STRONG WINDS FOR COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND. IT NEEDS TO BE STATED HERE THAT THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER KEEPS JOAQUIN OFF THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTH. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRACK AND STATEMENTS REGARDING TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN FOR FUTURE UPDATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE GFS PUSHES THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWLY TRACKS IT ACROSS OUR AREA THEN TO OUR NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE DRY AFTER SUNDAY, WHILE THE WOULD CONTINUE A WET FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY, WE WILL FOLLOW WPC FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHICH KEEPS A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. CIGS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTN. SHRA ACTIVITY HAS MOVED NORTH OF PNE/TTN INTO ABE. BEHIND IT, SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE SPOTTY UNTIL AFTER 21Z AT RDG, 03Z FOR THE I-95 TAF SITES. THE SHRA MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A FEW HOURS MAINLY OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE I-95. REGARDLESS, ALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON CIGS LOWERING BACK TO MVFR THIS EVE AND IFR OVERNIGHT. IFR IN LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES THRU AT LEAST THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND A SLOW- MOVING COLD FRONT. S-SE WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT THIS AFTN BEFORE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THIS EVE. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD GUST TO 20 KT OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD, REACHING AT LEAST 25-30 KNOTS AT TIMES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR UPDATES ON TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN. && .MARINE... E-SE WINDS 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 4 TO 6 FOOT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS, SO WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING THERE. WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE DELAWARE BAY, POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALE FORCE. SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH AS WELL. THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH AS WELL. FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR UPDATES ON TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT SPOTTY TIDAL FLOODING MIGHT OCCUR IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THEREAFTER...HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES OF MINOR OR GREATER COASTAL FLOODING PROBABLY BEGINNING WITH THE THURSDAY MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND CONTINUING THIS WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR SEVERAL OF THESE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. LOCAL INTERNAL OFFICE ASSESSMENT OFFERS SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES THAN THAT OF THE 12Z/29 ETSS FOR THURSDAYS MIDDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. DBOFS THROUGH ITS FORECAST CYCLE (NAM BASED) IS CONSIDERED THE UNLIKELY NON FLOOD SCENARIO. THERE IS SPREAD IN TIMING THE LATE WEEK MORE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW NECESSARY TO DEVELOP THE LARGER POSITIVE SURGE DEPARTURES AND THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAIN TIMING THE STRONGER GALE ONSHORE FLOW. THAT SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS JUSTIFIES A STILL CAUTIOUS APPROACH TO ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR MODERATE OR GREATER COASTAL FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...WE`RE HOLDING OFF ON A 4TH PERIOD AND BEYOND CFWATCH SINCE THERE IS A LACK OF TIMING CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR NEAR THE TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDES, PROBABLY BEGINNING WITH THE MIDDAY THURSDAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .RIP CURRENTS... WAVES ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE TODAY, MAINLY FROM A PERSISTENT EAST SOUTHEAST SWELL. THE WIND SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH OR SO. THE ROUGH SEAS AND THE EAST SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FOR TODAY. THE CONDITION OF THE OCEAN IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY. WE WILL LIKELY END OUR SURF ZONE FORECAST SEASON ON WEDNESDAY WITH A HIGH RISK. && .HYDROLOGY... TWO SEPARATE RAINFALL EVENTS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR SO. THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WILL FALL TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SECOND BATCH IS FORECAST TO FALL THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL FROM THE COMBINED EVENTS COULD BE IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE, ENDING ON MONDAY. DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL HELP WITH THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. MANY CREEKS, STREAMS AND MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE LOWER THAN WHERE THEY TYPICALLY ARE THIS TIME OF YEAR. STREAMFLOW, IN GENERAL, APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER IN NJ VERSUS ADJACENT AREAS. THROUGH TOMORROW, THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW, AS IS FLOODING ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. MAINSTEM FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. LOW LYING, POOR DRAINAGE, AND URBAN FLOODING WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREATS IN THE SHORT TERM. IF THE WEEKEND RAINS COME TO FRUITION, THE THREAT OF POOR DRAINAGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND EVEN SOME MAINSTEM FLOODING WILL INCREASE. TWO MAIN MESSAGES TO PASS ALONG... ONE, THIS WEEKENDS FLOOD POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TROPICAL MOISTURE THE REGION WILL RECEIVE AT THAT TIME. THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN THROUGH TOMORROW WILL PRIME THE REGION, THE SECOND BATCH COULD CAUSE SOME IMPACTS. TWO, DO NOT JUST FOCUS ON TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN. TROPICAL AIR AND HEAVY RAINS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE HERE WHEN JOAQUIN IS VERY FAR AWAY. IT`S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT JOAQUIN BECOMES A NON-FACTOR FOR US AND THE MID-LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BECOMES THE MAIN DRIVER FOR OUR FLOODING RAINS. .CLIMATE... KPHL, KILG, KACY AND KABE ALL PROBABLY GOING TO HAVE CULMINATED A 16 CONSECUTIVE DAY STRETCH OF NO MEASURABLE RAIN FROM THE 13TH THROUGH TODAY THE 28TH. IT SHOULD MEASURE BY 1 AM WEDNESDAY (29TH CLIMATE) BUT EVEN THEN, THERE IS A CHANCE MEASURABLE WILL NOT REACH KACY BEFORE 1 AM WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS IS A LONG SPELL OF DRY WEATHER, IT IS FAR FROM A RECORD. THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER WILL GO INTO THE BOOKS AS ONE OF THE WARMEST ON RECORD. KPHL IS NOW PROJECTING 74.3... OR 2ND WARMEST. NORMAL IS 69.1 DEPARTURE PLUS 5.2. POR BACK TO 1874 1881 75.4 2015 74.3 1931 74.1 1930 74.1 KABE IS NOW PROJECTING 69.3......STILL 4TH WARMEST. NORMAL IS 63.9 DEPARTURE PLUS 5.4 POR BACK TO 1922 1961 70.8 1980 70.3 1931 69.4 2015 69.3 2005 68.7 KILG IS NOW PROJECTING 72.3...OR TIED FOR 3RD WARMEST. NORMAL 67.8 DEPARTURE PLUS 4.5 POR BACK TO 1917. THERE WAS A MISSING PERIOD BETWEEN 1897-1916 1895 72.9 1961 72.5 1930 72.3 2015 72.3 1970 72.1 1931 72.1 KACY PROJECTING 71.3 TIED FOR 7TH WARMEST. NORMAL 67.2 DEPARTURE PLUS 3.9 POR BACK TO 1874 1961 73.3 1881 72.8 1931 72.3 1930 72.3 1921 71.7 1933 71.5 2015 71.3 2010 71.0 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014- 024>026. DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ452>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ452>455. GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450-451. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA NEAR TERM...KLEIN SHORT TERM...KLEIN LONG TERM...MIKETTA AVIATION...KLEIN/MIKETTA MARINE...KLEIN/MIKETTA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG RIP CURRENTS...DRAG HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
301 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 For the short term, main concerns focused on a front moving through the region this evening. Precipitation in the southeast is slowly eroding, as is the post frontal showers from this morning northwest of the Illinois River Valley. A narrow line of convection is firing on the leading edge of the front, but so far, are very small in coverage area. Drier air at the sfc expected to advect in as the evening progresses. Models are not doing well with handling the llvl moisture, with most being a little too progressive with the cloud cover, initializing with higher ceilings. Have kept the cloud cover in place for most of Central Illinois until after 00z...and after 06z for the southern half of the area. Once the skies clear out, the temps should radiate out quite well, with the northeast dropping into the 40s, and the southeast keeping the cloud cover and staying warmer. The drier air moving in should drop the dewpoints, but should the timing be off between the frontal passage/drying out in the boundary layer/clearing of the skies, could end up seeing some patchy fog invof the boundary towards morning, but not enough confidence to warrant a mention in the forecast at this point. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Tuesday) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A large high pressure system will build into Canada north of the Great Lakes for midweek into the weekend bringing persistent cool temperatures and north to northeasterly breezes. The high will push much drier Canadian air into central IL bringing mostly clear skies at least until Saturday...along with dewpoints in the 40s and even some 30s. Highs will range from the upper 60s to low 70s Wednesday and continue to cool into the mid 60s for Friday through Sunday. Lows will be generally in the 40s Wednesday night through the next week. A deep trough/surface low system is expected to form along the Atlantic coast over the weekend...potentially merging with tropical storm Joaquin. Recent model runs are hinting at a trough axis wrapping around the low and perhaps bringing some cloud cover as far west as central IL Sunday...and a slight chance of precipitation about as far west as the Indiana border. Keeping the forecast dry for central IL at this point. This feature should be short-lived as high pressure builds into the central U.S. ahead of low pressure moving through the west early next week...bringing a dry and subsident northwesterly flow pattern into Illinois. This will also bring a warming trend for the early part of next week...with most high temperatures returning back into the low 70s by Tuesday. The western low pressure feature could bring a chance for precipitation into central IL midweek next week...although models remain highly inconsistent on the track and other details of the system at this point. For now...now mentionable chances of precipitation through Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 Most of ILX terminals between two areas of rain, with a front moving through the area accompanied by MVFR/IFR cigs and gusty northeasterly winds. VCSH through the afternoon, with the best chances for precip lagging behind the boundary so far, and in air that is mixing with some drier air and eroding many of the showers this morning. Visibility holding with low cigs at least through the day. Most models are already off with regards to cigs and layer moisture in the llvls. HRRR handling the current conditions a little better and have followed the timing of bringing the cigs up later this evening. Once the front clears out, the skies should clear up as well towards morning. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...Onton AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1238 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A cold front is lagging in northwestern Illinois and making its way through the region today. Two distinct areas of precipitation this morning, one associated with an upper level disturbance, with rain and scattered thunder through the morning south of the interstate 72/74 corridor from SPI to DNV. This rain has remained fairly consistent through the morning hours and should stay in place for the afternoon. The second round of precip out there is behind the cold front and will also be making its way across ILX. Afternoon brings the lightning threat up as the convective element increases with the diurnal heat. Only some minor updates to the hourly pops. Otherwise, the forecast is doing well. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 Two areas of rain seen on the radar mosaic at 300 am, one over southern Illinois associated with an upper level wave seen on the water vapor loop over far southeast Missouri with the second band of showers and isolated thunder over the northern half of Iowa. The Iowa precip was occurring west and northwest of the cold front which as of 300 am was located over the northwest tip of Illinois southwest through east central Iowa. This front will push across our area this morning switching our winds into the north and northeast bringing in much cooler weather later today and tonight. The better chances for rain will be across the southeast half of our forecast area today associated with the southeast Missouri wave, while models continue to suggest the rain associated with the area of frontogenetical forcing to our northwest will gradually weaken as it spreads southeast today. Forecast soundings showing the better elevated instability will be over the central and especially southeast Illinois, but even in these locations not seeing much in the way of Capes (Most Unstable) above 750 J/KG, so will continue to hold onto isolated/slight chance of thunder central and southeast sections for today. Although the front is on target to pass across the northwest this morning and our southeast counties this afternoon, the real cool down doesn`t occur for several hours behind the boundary, so the 00z guidance has caught on and has bumped temps up a few degrees from the last model run. Looks like upper 60s far northwest to the upper 70s in the far west and south this afternoon. .LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Monday) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A chance of showers will linger well behind the cold front over southeast IL this evening especially early this evening and have increase pops then. Dry conditions then expected overnight with some clearing of clouds over northern CWA, while southeast IL remains in the clouds thru the night. Lows tonight range from upper 40s nw of the IL river to the mid to upper 50s in southeast IL. Large high pressure over the upper Midwest/northern Plains to settles into the western Great Lakes region Wed and decrease clouds over southeast IL. Breezy nne winds to bring cooler and drier air into the region with highs Wed in the upper 60s northern CWA and lower 70s southern CWA. Cool lows Wed night in the mid 40s central IL and upper 40s in southeast IL. Upper level trof deepens into the TN river valley Thu with upper level ridging over the Rockies. Surface high pressure ridge axis stays to our nw keeping IL in a cool/breezy nne flow and similar weather on Thu. Highs Thu in the mid to upper 60s and lows Thu night in the low to mid 40s and NNE winds become lighter during the night. 00Z forecast models show cutoff low to develop over southeast states late this week near GA on Friday and near the Carolinas and mid Atlantic states this weekend. Large Canadian high pressure northeast of the Great Lakes late this week to keep IL in a cool and dry ne flow. Highs in the 60s with lows in the low to mid 40s continues through early next week along with dry weather which will make for favorable harvest conditions. 00Z GEM/ECMWF/GFS all keep IL dry from Wed through Sunday evening. 00Z Ecmwf/GFS models continue dry weather over IL Monday and Tuesday of next week. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 Most of ILX terminals between two areas of rain, with a front moving through the area accompanied by MVFR/IFR cigs and gusty northeasterly winds. VCSH through the afternoon, with the best chances for precip lagging behind the boundary so far, and in air that is mixing with some drier air and eroding many of the showers this morning. Visibility holding with low cigs at least through the day. Most models are already off with regards to cigs and layer moisture in the llvls. HRRR handling the current conditions a little better and have followed the timing of bringing the cigs up later this evening. Once the front clears out, the skies should clear up as well towards morning. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HJS SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF RAIN THAT IS DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING NE OF THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TRANSITIONING TO THE EAST OF US...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. NOW FORECAST ATTENTION TURNS TO THE TEMPS FOR TODAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND THE FROPA IT APPEARS THAT CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY. ELSEWHERE...SLIGHT WARMING IN THE NW SHOULD OCCUR WHEN THE CLOUDS BREAK FREE. HAVE CONTINUED TO UPDATE THE POPS AND WX GRIDS AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN OF GREAT VALUE TODAY. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA AS OF 2 AM...WITH A BAND OF POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW REMAINING RUMBLES OF THUNDER FOUND ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT IS LIKELY GOING TO RESULT IN A DRY NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND A BENEFICIAL RAIN OF 0.25 TO .60 IN THE NORTH. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN CENTRAL IOWA ALONG THE FRONT...AND THIS WILL HAVE SOME INTERESTING IMPLICATIONS THIS MORNING. WHILE THE PROCESS OF POST FRONTAL FGEN FORCED RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE...THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW IN CENTRAL IOWA HAS HELD OFF ANY TRUE CAA OVER NORTHEAST IOWA THUS FAR...MAKING FOR A MILD RAIN EVENT. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR TODAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SPREAD EAST OF THE CWA...AND THE RAIN THAT OCCURS AFTER 6 AM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND...AND RATHER RAW CONDITIONS. IN OTHER WORDS...IT WONT BE PLEASANT. IT ALSO WONT LAST VERY LONG. THE MOISTURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER 15Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...ENDING MEASURABLE RAINS AT THAT TIME. WE MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE AFTER THAT TIME...BUT THE DRY AIR WILL WIN THE WAR BY AROUND NOON. WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREA WIDE. IN FACT...A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON IS LIKELY CONTRASTING WHAT COULD BE A UNPLEASANT MORNING COMMUTE. TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR...A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS FORECAST. WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 40S IS LIKELY...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS DIPPING TO THE UPPER 30S. I HAVE OUTLINED IN THE GRIDS THE WAPSIPINICON WITH UPPER 30S AS THAT SEEMS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING. ERVIN .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 OVERVIEW...SPLIT UPPER JET PATTERN FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE NORTHERN BRANCH AND REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND EAST COAST. POSITIONING OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA. AVERAGE FORECAST FOR EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS IS FOR SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE 60S...LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EASTERN CANADA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS CANADA RESULTING IN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS LOCALLY. 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKS...AVERAGING BETWEEN 3-6 C...1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 552-558 DAM. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO SIGNAL FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 MVFR CONDITIONS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM NW TO SE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. ENE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. AFTER THIS...WINDS WILL STAY AOA 10 KTS TONIGHT FROM ENE. CLEAR SKIES AND NO VSBY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z WED. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GIBBS SYNOPSIS...ERVIN SHORT TERM...ERVIN LONG TERM...UTTECH AVIATION...GIBBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF RAIN THAT IS DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE WAVE MOVING NE OF THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TRANSITIONING TO THE EAST OF US...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. NOW FORECAST ATTENTION TURNS TO THE TEMPS FOR TODAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS AND THE FROPA IT APPEARS THAT CENTRAL AREAS OF THE CWA HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY. ELSEWHERE...SLIGHT WARMING IN THE NW SHOULD OCCUR WHEN THE CLOUDS BREAK FREE. HAVE CONTINUED TO UPDATE THE POPS AND WX GRIDS AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN OF GREAT VALUE TODAY. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA AS OF 2 AM...WITH A BAND OF POST FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW REMAINING RUMBLES OF THUNDER FOUND ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SLOW MOVEMENT IS LIKELY GOING TO RESULT IN A DRY NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...AND A BENEFICIAL RAIN OF 0.25 TO .60 IN THE NORTH. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN CENTRAL IOWA ALONG THE FRONT...AND THIS WILL HAVE SOME INTERESTING IMPLICATIONS THIS MORNING. WHILE THE PROCESS OF POST FRONTAL FGEN FORCED RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE...THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW IN CENTRAL IOWA HAS HELD OFF ANY TRUE CAA OVER NORTHEAST IOWA THUS FAR...MAKING FOR A MILD RAIN EVENT. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR TODAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE SPREAD EAST OF THE CWA...AND THE RAIN THAT OCCURS AFTER 6 AM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND...AND RATHER RAW CONDITIONS. IN OTHER WORDS...IT WONT BE PLEASANT. IT ALSO WONT LAST VERY LONG. THE MOISTURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE AFTER 15Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...ENDING MEASURABLE RAINS AT THAT TIME. WE MAY CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE AFTER THAT TIME...BUT THE DRY AIR WILL WIN THE WAR BY AROUND NOON. WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREA WIDE. IN FACT...A VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON IS LIKELY CONTRASTING WHAT COULD BE A UNPLEASANT MORNING COMMUTE. TONIGHT...UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR...A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS FORECAST. WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 40S IS LIKELY...WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS DIPPING TO THE UPPER 30S. I HAVE OUTLINED IN THE GRIDS THE WAPSIPINICON WITH UPPER 30S AS THAT SEEMS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING. ERVIN .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 OVERVIEW...SPLIT UPPER JET PATTERN FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE NORTHERN BRANCH AND REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AND EAST COAST. POSITIONING OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA. AVERAGE FORECAST FOR EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS IS FOR SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE 60S...LOWS IN THE 40S...AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SPRAWLING SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EASTERN CANADA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS CANADA RESULTING IN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS LOCALLY. 850MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW WEEKS...AVERAGING BETWEEN 3-6 C...1000-500MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 552-558 DAM. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS NO SIGNAL FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS IN EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. A BAND OF MODERATE RAIN IS LOCATED OVER IOWA INTO WISCONSIN AS OF 12Z...AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AS IT WEAKENS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS...AND VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 3 AND 6 MILES WILL BE LIKELY IN THIS RAIN...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KTS. BY 18Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AND GUSTY THROUGH 00Z...BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 6 KTS OVERNIGHT. ERVIN && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GIBBS SYNOPSIS...ERVIN SHORT TERM...ERVIN LONG TERM...UTTECH AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
206 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 Fairly high confidence in the short term. As usual patchy fog tonight is very difficult especially with a north wind expected to stay up all night. The MOS data suggests at least some patchy fog across the area with isolated areas of dense fog mainly in Cape Girardeau. This is not unusual for the models to advertise this fog after a rain event but it is not typical with a north wind and clouds all night. This will be one parameter we will have to monitor closely. The HRRR indicates an upper low was meandering over confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers most of the morning then it slowly lifts it toward EVV this aftn. Current radar trends would support this scenario. Could see more rain but should remain light and scattered at best. The upper level wave will bisect the heartland around midnight and pass east early Wednesday morning. Cleared the mention of rain in the wake of this trough. After today cooler and drier air will filter into the region with temperatures close to 10 degrees below normal for highs and lows. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 At the start of the extended period, we will dealing with what happens with an upper level low, which develops over the CWA Wednesday night into Thursday. Medium range models suggest that by 12Z Friday, the upper low should be in Alabama, so our area should remain rain free. We will likely be dealing with some cloudiness (especially east) however and cool temperatures. As we head into the weekend, this feature eventually moves east and then northeast up the eastern seaboard, although models are in disagreement on how fast and in what direction it will head. This will mean continued cool temperatures and some cloudy conditions from time to time until this system moves far enough east to not impact our area. This will probably happen sometime late in the weekend. By early next week, we should see upper heights rising which will mean an uptick in tempeatures. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1208 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 Isolated thunder and rain continue to rotate around the area keeping IFR/MVFR conditions in place. Thunder will remain possible until this evening. Variable winds will turn northerly this aftn at all sites. Fog will be an issue at all sites with IFR fog possible at KCGI. Rain chances dwindle overnight as drier air filters into the region. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KH LONG TERM...CW AVIATION...KH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
544 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS DOMINATE THE STATE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 540 PM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BACK A FEW HRS USING THE LATEST MRMS AND BASE RADAR SHOWING STEADIER RAIN JUST MOVING INTO WNW AREAS. HRRR SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THINGS QUITE WELL PER 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING BEST CONVERGENCE IN THE WNW AREAS. HEAVY RAIN SHIELD IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS VERMONT ON RADAR AS SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE STATE OF MAINE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALL GUIDANCE CAME INTO AGREEMENT WITH ROBUST AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TRENDED MAXIMUM QPF AXIS FURTHER INLAND COMPARED TO LAST FORECAST PACKAGE...AS ALL GUIDANCE HAS FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE NOW. NAM12 IS THE MOST AGREESIVE WITH UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE NOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMUM ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD WITH A GENERAL 3-5" AND SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE. EVEN THOUGH THINGS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...FELT THE AMOUNTS IN THEMSELVE WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH FOR SMALL STREAM AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TOMORROWS SURFACE LOW TRACK WITH HEAVY RAIN OVERSPREADING THE COAST AND DOWNEAST TOMORROW MORNING. GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW...SO CONFIDENCE HAS FINALLY INCREASED ON THE OVERALL SOLUTION. BIGGEST IMPACT AND THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WITH POSSIBLE BANDING STUCTURE DEVELOPMENT THAT WILL LEAD TO LOCALZIED FLOODING. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY CAUSING RAIN TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF TO GENERATE A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR POP.. QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LONG TERM REMAINS A CHALLENGING FORECAST, WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY LINGERING AROUND THE FUTURE OF TS JOAQUIN. THE FORECAST FOR JOAQUIN IS NO MORE CERTAIN TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH EVERY MODEL SEEMINGLY HAVING A DIFFERENT SOLUTION BEYOND 48-72 HRS. THE DISCREPANCIES SEEM TO BE BASED ON THEIR DIFFERENT HANDLING OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC, TYPICAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SORT OF A PATTERN. CURRENT SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM HOOKING INTO THE CAROLINAS OR MID- ATLANTIC TO GOING OFF TO NOVA SCOTIA OR EVEN EAST OF THERE. WHAT DOES SEEM SOMEWHAT CERTAIN IS THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM, AND MODELS SHOW THE FRONT CREEPING BACK NORTH A BIT SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW LKLY POPS OFFSHORE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO NUDGE BACK NORTH ONSHORE. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD, HOWEVER, POPS WERE GENERALLY KEPT AT CHC LEVELS, SINCE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-TERM PATTERN EVOLUTION AND THE FATE OF TS JOAQUIN SEEM TO PRECLUDE ANY DEFINITIVE FORECAST FOR DRIER OR WETTER WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: AVIATION OPERATIONS WILL BE SERVERLY IMPACTING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOW VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS. SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE KBGR AND KBHB FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA IN EFFECT BEGINNING TONIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL PEAK TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS COASTAL LOW PUSHES UP THE COAST. STRONG BAND OF SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PEAK TOMORROW AFTERNOON...GALE WARING ISSUED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT. SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE GFS WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON LOW PRESSURE THROUGH TO THE EAST OF WATERS. FOR WAVES: PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WIND (6-8 FEET/7-8 SECONDS) WAVE ON WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LONGER PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY (SWELL 4-5 FEET/9-10 SECONDS). EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL 1200Z THURSDAY THEN DIMINISH TO SCA. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND NEW GALE MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED THURSDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MEZ004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051. GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT/DUMONT SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...KREDENSOR AVIATION...HEWITT/DUMONT/MIGNONE MARINE...HEWITT/DUMONT/MIGNONE HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1253 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SRN MANITOBA. ACCOMPANYING 12HR HGT FALLS UP TO 70M ARE DEEPENING TROF A BIT CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPR LKS. ATTENDANT COLD FNT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THRU UPR MI...ALLOWING AN INFLUX OF MUCH COOLER AIR WITH 00Z H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -5C AT THE PAS MANITOBA AND -2C AT YPL. DESPITE THE CHILL OF THIS INCOMING AIRMASS RELATIVE TO THE WARM LK WATERS /AS HI AS 15C OVER WRN LK SUP/...DRYNESS OF THE LLVL AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM RAOBS AND LARGER SCALE ACYC NW FLOW TO THE E OF SFC HI PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS HAVE PREVENTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY LK CLDS. PWATS AT THE PAS AND YPL WERE AROUND 0.25 INCH. UNDER THE SHARP PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF THE HI...NW WINDS HAVE GUSTED UP TO 30 KTS AT SOME OF THE HIER PLATFORMS ON LK SUP. THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS STREAKING ACRS THE UPR LKS ON THE NRN FLANK OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST...BUT PCPN/THICKER CLDS ARE CLOSER TO DEEP MSTR WELL TO THE S. MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON TEMPS TNGT AND NEED FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. TODAY...FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHRTWV THRU NW ONTARIO AND ATTENDANT COLD FROPA EARLY THIS MRNG...LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE WL DOMINATE AND ALLOW SFC HI PRES CENTER TO SHIFT NEAR WRN LK SUP BY 00Z THIS EVNG. GUSTY NW WINDS...REACHING NEAR 30 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF CLOSE TO LK SUP UNDER STRONG CAA THIS MRNG WL ADVECT THE DRIER LLVL AIR INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME SCT CU COULD DVLP WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS AND ACYC FLOW WL BRING ABOUT A MOSUNNY DAY. DESPITE THIS SUNSHINE...H85 TEMPS NO HIER THAN 2C WL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S AT MOST PLACES. THE STRONG NW WINDS OVER LK SUP WL BRING HIER WAVES UP TO 5 FT AND A HI SWIM RISK ALONG THE BEACHES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES. TNGT...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS IS FCST TO STRETCH FM NEAR JAMES BAY ACRS WRN UPR MI AND INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. UNDER LGT WINDS AND MOCLR SKIES WITH PWAT FCST AS LO AS 0.25 INCH...EXPECT MIN TEMPS OVER THE WRN CWA TO PLUMMET BLO 32 AT MANY PLACES OVER THE INTEIOR W HALF. ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR E HALF MAY SEE THE MECURY TUMBLE BLO 32 AS WELL...A BIT TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT/HIER H925 WINDS UP TO 15-20KT WL LIMIT THE AREA OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS. LOCATIONS ALONG THE LK SHORES...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP E OF THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LK MI S OF ESCANABA...SHOULD BE THE WARMEST WITH MIN TEMPS HOLDING AOA 40. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...OPTED TO MAINTAIN FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR W HALF. INCLUDED DICKINSON COUNTY IN THIS LATEST VERSION AS WINDS THERE WL BE SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT. ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA TO INDICATE THERE IS A GOOD CHC OF FROST AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING TEMPS AWAY FM THE MODERATING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES GIVES WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL BUILD TO OVER 1042MB BY 12Z FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. DUE TO THE SFC RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER. AFTER WIDESPREAD FROST EARLY ON...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST AND NCNTRL CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NAM/GFS/GEM- REGIONAL SHOWING POCKET OF HIGHER H85 RH AND H85 TEMPS AROUND 0C WHILE WATER TEMPS ARE 13-15C. OVERALL DRYNESS OF AIRMASS AND LACK OF CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF CLOUDS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BLO H85 RESULT IN MOST CLOUDS OVER KEWEENAW AND FAR NCNTRL... SIMILAR TO CONSENSUS OF MAIN MODELS. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY STAY IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA. CHILLY NIGHT WITH FROST LIKELY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEADY EAST WINDS ABOVE 10 KTS H95-H85 BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND PWATS LESS THAN 0.30 INCHES...NEAR SFC LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE AND MIN TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S. WEAK ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE LK SUPERIOR SHORE MORE IN THE UPR 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. COOL AIRMASS PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY IN THE 50S...BUT THIS TIME WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. THOUGH SFC RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AIRMASS CHANGES LITTLE AND IN FACT...PWATS ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS CHECKING IN LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. LOWERED MINS TOWARD COOLER MEX GUIDANCE AND ADDED MENTION OF FROST. COOLEST READINGS IN LOW 30S WILL BE FOR THE INTERIOR. BY FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW TROUGH OR AT LEAST A PORTION OF IT RETROGRADING WEST BETWEEN UPPER RIDGES OVER MANITOBA/NORTHERN ONTARIO AND OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS FM MODELS THAT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE THIS WEEK WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND TO BRING RAIN TO AT LEAST EASTERN PART OF CWA. TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE RAIN IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN COULD BE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY TROPICAL SYSTEM JOAQUIN LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OR ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...BETTER AGREEMENT THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER 1040MB CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL KEEP RIDGE AND DRY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO AT LEAST FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. AGREEMENT DECREASES BY LATER WEEKEND DUE TO HOW FAR WEST MODELS BRING SFC LOW TIED INTO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTH FM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. 00Z RUNS VARY WILDLY FM STRONGER SFC LOW AS FAR WEST AS GEORGIAN BAY PER THE GFS AND MORE OVER THE EAST COAST FM THE GEM-NH AND ECMWF. THOUGH GFS SOLUTION IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN IT HAS SHOWED IT OCCASIONALLY IN THE LAST FEW DAYS AND IT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT GEM-NH SHOWED A DAY AGO. GIVEN THE VOLITILITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS WHICH SHOWED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAINLY OVER THE EAST CWA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY COOL WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DURING THE DAYTIME AND MID 30S TO MID 40S DURING THE NIGHTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL 3 TERMINALS THIS FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 UNDER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT E OF HI PRES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT NNW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15 KTS TONIGHT OVER THE WEST HALF AS THE HI DRIFTS NEARLY OVERHEAD...BUT N VEERING NE WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E UNDER TIGHTER GRADIENT FARTHER FROM THE HI PRES RIDGE AXIS. AS THE HI PRES RIDGE DRIFTS SLOWLY ENE AND INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A STEADY 15-25KT ENE WIND WILL PERSIST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-003-005>007-012>014-085. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009>011-084. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...07 MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
139 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARD STEADY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE REGION DRIES OUT BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AND THEN TREND COOLER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1227 PM EDT TUESDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE FIRST BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOWERS IS SLOWING MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. UPSTREAM OBS ARE SUPPORTING THE UPGRADE TO MENTION OF MODERATE RAINFALL SO I DID GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THAT. THE HRRR CAPTURES THE LOCATION OF THE FIRST PRECIP SHIELD QUITE WELL AND SO I BLENDED THE HRRR INTO THE FORECAST AND OTHERWISE LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST ALONE. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS AND THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL LATE INTO THE EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...CURRENT SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A CLOSED MID- UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A DEVELOPING LARGE- SCALE CONFLUENT DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS CONFLUENCE IS OCCURRING ON WRN PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME AROUND THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GFS AND NAM SHOW STRENGTHENING 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FROM S-CENTRAL NY NEWD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. WITHIN THIS AXIS...PW VALUES ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75" WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 11-12 KFT. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A CLOUDY DAY WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS...WITH RAINFALL BECOMING MORE STEADY...WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE SRN TIER OF NY NEWD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BECOME FOCUSED FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST, TO INCLUDE ESSEX COUNTY NY. THERE IS ALSO INDICATIONS IN THE 00Z NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES 100-300 J/KG) WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN HALF OF VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...IN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC REGIME. NOT EXPECTING LIGHTNING...BUT COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE RAINFALL WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL VERMONT. THAT SAID...SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TOWARD 21-00Z THIS EVENING...AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SEPARATE FOCUS AND BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES PER BTV-4KM AND 12KM WRF RUNS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL AMTS FOR THE 12-HR PERIOD ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 0.40" ACROSS FAR NRN NY...TO 0.6-0.7" ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND S- CENTRAL VT...WITH AROUND 0.50" OR SO IN THE BTV AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING WARM BY LATE SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. CURRENTLY 70F AT BTV AT 08Z! DEEP-LAYER S TO SW FLOW AND CLOUD COVER IS YIELDING EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 65-70F RANGE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE VALLEY TEMPS CLIMB EARLY INTO THE LOWER 70S...AND THEN GENERALLY LEVEL OFF OR FALL SLIGHTLY WITH THICKER CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING STEADY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. ANTECEDENT SOILS ARE VERY DRY...SO WON/T SEE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS UNTIL WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED 06Z WED THROUGH 06Z THU FOR ESSEX COUNTY NY AND CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT ZONES. WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS UVV AND CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PER 00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. ALSO LOOKING AT PW VALUES 1.7-1.8" ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WITH FREEZING LEVELS/WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 12 KFT FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. SOME CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY ALSO PRESENT THROUGH TONIGHT (CAPE 100-300 J/KG)...THOUGH IT WANES ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS. ALL IN ALL...INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR POTENTIAL 2-3" RAINFALL...WITH HIGHEST AMTS LIKELY RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. SHOULD SEE A FEW SPOTS WITH AMOUNTS 3+" BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT...THEN A BURST OF HIGHER RAINFALL RATES WITH WAVE LOW MOVING NEWD ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT 12-18Z WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL RATES PROGRESSIVELY LIGHTER TO THE NORTH AND WEST...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT 80-100 POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND ALL BUT ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE RAINFALL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING POPS AND DEEPER LAYER NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND SUBSIDENCE MAY YIELD PARTIAL CLEARING - ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN AREAS SEEING CLEARING...SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED. BRIEF DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT COULD SEE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLS JUST EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MERIDIONAL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO/TN VALLEYS RESULTS IN SHARPENING SLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES...WITH GENERALLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGES AND OVERALL SLOW DOWNWARD TREND ON TEMPERATURES WITH SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON N-NW WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S....FOLLOWED BY HIGHS NEAR 60F ON WEDNESDAY AND MID-UPR 50S FOR THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH EAST OF JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN A LOW AROUND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSW TO THE SOUTHERN LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT AS THE SOUTHERN MID LEVEL LOW TRAVERSES NORTHWARD, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WESTWARD, BRINGING RAIN THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SE TO NW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND THE NORTHERN MID LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE REGION. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS MID LEVEL LOW AND TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN WHICH COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS MORE OR LESS ABSORBS JOAQUIN INTO THE MID-UPPER FLOW AND BRINGS THAT ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST USA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO BRING STRONG SOUTHEAST - EAST WINDS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON WESTERN SLOPES AND VALLEYS. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, KEEPS JOAQUIN ON ITS OWN AND OUT TO SEA, WHILE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVELS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...DELAYING ONSET OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY 6-12 HOURS FROM THE GFS. FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH. OVERALL, NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURE-WISE MODELS HAVE DIFFERED GREATLY WITH SATURDAY 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C ON THE GFS AND 4C-8C ON THE ECMWF. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME MAXES AND NEAR NORMAL MINS CONSIDERING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. THE RAIN INTENSITY WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK EASTWARD TO THE NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST AFTER 03Z. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS WITH FRONTAL ZONE AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE VERMONT TAF LOCATIONS. 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DRY AND VFR WITH BRIEF WINDOW OF HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH REDUCTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .MARINE... AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE ALLOWED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS 15-20 KTS THIS MORNING...GENERALLY LESSENING TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2-3 FEET SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY AFTERNOON...BUT VISIBILITY WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY STEADY RAINFALL BY LATE IN THE DAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR VTZ007>012-018-019. NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...EVENSON/KGM MARINE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1232 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARD STEADY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE REGION DRIES OUT BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AND THEN TREND COOLER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1227 PM EDT TUESDAY...A FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE FIRST BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOWERS IS SLOWING MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK. UPSTREAM OBS ARE SUPPORTING THE UPGRADE TO MENTION OF MODERATE RAINFALL SO I DID GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THAT. THE HRRR CAPTURES THE LOCATION OF THE FIRST PRECIP SHIELD QUITE WELL AND SO I BLENDED THE HRRR INTO THE FORECAST AND OTHERWISE LEFT THE CURRENT FORECAST ALONE. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS AND THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL LATE INTO THE EVENING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 740 AM EDT TUESDAY...CURRENT SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A CLOSED MID- UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A DEVELOPING LARGE- SCALE CONFLUENT DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS CONFLUENCE IS OCCURRING ON WRN PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME AROUND THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT AND DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z GFS AND NAM SHOW STRENGTHENING 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES FROM S-CENTRAL NY NEWD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF VERMONT. WITHIN THIS AXIS...PW VALUES ALSO INCREASE TO NEAR 1.75" WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 11-12 KFT. THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A CLOUDY DAY WITH ISOLD/SCATTERED LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS...WITH RAINFALL BECOMING MORE STEADY...WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE SRN TIER OF NY NEWD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BECOME FOCUSED FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST, TO INCLUDE ESSEX COUNTY NY. THERE IS ALSO INDICATIONS IN THE 00Z NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES 100-300 J/KG) WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN HALF OF VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON...IN NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC REGIME. NOT EXPECTING LIGHTNING...BUT COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE RAINFALL WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL VERMONT. THAT SAID...SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY TOWARD 21-00Z THIS EVENING...AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SEPARATE FOCUS AND BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES PER BTV-4KM AND 12KM WRF RUNS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL AMTS FOR THE 12-HR PERIOD ENDING 00Z WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 0.40" ACROSS FAR NRN NY...TO 0.6-0.7" ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY NY ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND S- CENTRAL VT...WITH AROUND 0.50" OR SO IN THE BTV AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING WARM BY LATE SEPTEMBER STANDARDS. CURRENTLY 70F AT BTV AT 08Z! DEEP-LAYER S TO SW FLOW AND CLOUD COVER IS YIELDING EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 65-70F RANGE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEYS...AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. WILL SEE VALLEY TEMPS CLIMB EARLY INTO THE LOWER 70S...AND THEN GENERALLY LEVEL OFF OR FALL SLIGHTLY WITH THICKER CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING STEADY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. ANTECEDENT SOILS ARE VERY DRY...SO WON/T SEE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS UNTIL WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED 06Z WED THROUGH 06Z THU FOR ESSEX COUNTY NY AND CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT ZONES. WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS UVV AND CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PER 00Z GFS AND 00Z NAM...WITH GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. ALSO LOOKING AT PW VALUES 1.7-1.8" ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WITH FREEZING LEVELS/WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 12 KFT FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. SOME CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY ALSO PRESENT THROUGH TONIGHT (CAPE 100-300 J/KG)...THOUGH IT WANES ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH DEVELOPING NORTH WINDS. ALL IN ALL...INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR POTENTIAL 2-3" RAINFALL...WITH HIGHEST AMTS LIKELY RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. SHOULD SEE A FEW SPOTS WITH AMOUNTS 3+" BEFORE ACTIVITY ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT...THEN A BURST OF HIGHER RAINFALL RATES WITH WAVE LOW MOVING NEWD ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT 12-18Z WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL RATES PROGRESSIVELY LIGHTER TO THE NORTH AND WEST...BUT GENERALLY LOOKING AT 80-100 POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT AND ALL BUT ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE RAINFALL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA WITH FRONTAL WAVE TOWARD WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING POPS AND DEEPER LAYER NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND SUBSIDENCE MAY YIELD PARTIAL CLEARING - ESPECIALLY NRN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN AREAS SEEING CLEARING...SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED. BRIEF DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...BUT COULD SEE ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLS JUST EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND MERIDIONAL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO/TN VALLEYS RESULTS IN SHARPENING SLY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES...WITH GENERALLY SMALL DIURNAL RANGES AND OVERALL SLOW DOWNWARD TREND ON TEMPERATURES WITH SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON N-NW WINDS. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S....FOLLOWED BY HIGHS NEAR 60F ON WEDNESDAY AND MID-UPR 50S FOR THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH EAST OF JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN USA. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN A LOW AROUND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSW TO THE SOUTHERN LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...BUT AS THE SOUTHERN MID LEVEL LOW TRAVERSES NORTHWARD, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WESTWARD, BRINGING RAIN THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM SE TO NW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND THE NORTHERN MID LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE REGION. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS MID LEVEL LOW AND TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN WHICH COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS MORE OR LESS ABSORBS JOAQUIN INTO THE MID-UPPER FLOW AND BRINGS THAT ENERGY AND MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST USA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO BRING STRONG SOUTHEAST - EAST WINDS WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS ON WESTERN SLOPES AND VALLEYS. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND, KEEPS JOANQUIN ON ITS OWN AND OUT TO SEA, WHILE A CLOSED SURFACE LOW TRAVELS UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...DELAYING ONSET OF RAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY BY 6-12 HOURS FROM THE GFS. FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH. OVERALL, NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURE-WISE MODELS HAVE DIFFERED GREATLY WITH SATURDAY 850MB TEMPS AROUND 12C ON THE GFS AND 4C-8C ON THE ECMWF. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME MAXES AND NEAR NORMAL MINS CONSIDERING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR TO VFR WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING. KMSS AND KSLK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MVFR-IFR CIGS WITH LOWERING VSBYS WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. MEANWHILE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS...WITH KRUT DETERIORATING FIRST AS STEADIER RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE SW TO NE WITH MVFR CIGS. AS THE STEADY PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON, MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES WHILE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING. MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL CAUSING IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT KMPV WHICH WILL BE IN HEAVIER BAND OF RAINFALL. WITH CONTINUED RAINFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS WITH FRONTAL ZONE AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY AT THE VERMONT TAF LOCATIONS. 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DRY AND VFR WITH BRIEF WINDOW OF HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH REDUCTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .MARINE... AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...HAVE ALLOWED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS 15-20 KTS THIS MORNING...GENERALLY LESSENING TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2-3 FEET SHOULD SUBSIDE A BIT BY AFTERNOON...BUT VISIBILITY WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY STEADY RAINFALL BY LATE IN THE DAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR VTZ007>012-018-019. NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS/DEAL SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM MARINE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1230 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WHERE THERE IS NO CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED THEM A BIT WHERE THERE IS. ALSO INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND MAV GUIDANCE. THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES WELL...SO BASED AFTERNOON FORECAST TRENDS ON THOSE LATEST RUNS. OTHER THAN THAT...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. DID LET THE FROST ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 8 AM CDT...AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH THE RISING SUN. ALSO TWEAKED CLOUD COVER IN THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE 06Z NAM...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. WITH A FEW LOCALES HAVING DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S. THE SOUTHWEST IS THE EXCEPTION AS RETURN FLOW IS ADVECTING SOME LOW VFR AND MVFR CLOUDS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES HERE WERE IN THE LOWER 40S. FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED. NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FROST ADVISORY WHICH EXPIRES AT 8 AM CDT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CLOUD COVER IN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA - AFFECTING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE STATE...EXCEPT FOR THE VERY SOUTHWEST CORNER. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S MOST AREAS...WITH LOWER 40S SOME AREAS FAR SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY AROUND SUNRISE...AND DRIFT TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WIND TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE STATE. LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND STRETCH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO AROUND 70 IN THE WEST. THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING INTO THE 30S. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 A COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW AND BLOCKY PATTERN IS RESULTING IN LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH A HIGH SPREAD IN THE ENVELOPE OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. A QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE COMES TO A HALT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH OVER LOW REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THIS AREA. THE UPPER LOW THEN RETROGRADES BACK WEST INTO SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPECIFICS SUCH AS THE PLACEMENT OF QPF AS THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE VIGOROUS AND EXTENDS QPF FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. WILL STICK WITH A MODEL BLEND SOLUTION WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPING CHANCE POPS CONTAINED MAINLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL OVERTAKE THE SASKATCHEWAN UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...COMBINES WITH THE STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL KEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN FINALLY MOVES OUT AND DRIES UP ON SUNDAY. AGAIN...THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED COOL CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE WETTEST...WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREAFTER THE THREAT OF THUNDER LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. AS CEILINGS LOWER TONIGHT...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AFT 06Z...INCLUDING KBIS/KMOT. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO IFR OVER KISN/KDIK. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER KJMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ZH SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
256 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 930 AM EDT TUESDAY... LATEST FORECAST UPDATE REFLECTS CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN FROM STOKES COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH PATRICK COUNTY...ACROSS FLOYD AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE PATRICK COUNTY MEETS FLOYD COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS OF 930...ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH 2 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES...IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS PATRICK COUNTY. AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO THREE INCHES IS LIKELY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THIS AREA THROUGH NOON. LATEST RAPID UPDATE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CARRIES ABNORMALLY MOIST AIR INTO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NUMEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED CLOSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF MONTGOMERY...FLOYD AND PATRICK COUNTIES. RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE RAPIDLY DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH MANY OF THE SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS FROM STOKES COUNTY NC THROUGH MONTGOMERY COUNTY VA SWELLING OUT OF THEIR BANKS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL MOVE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 18Z/2PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 06Z/2AM TONIGHT. THE 00Z GFS AND LATEST RAP GUIDANCE WERE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THIS LOW THAN THE NAM. ALL MODEL SHOWED INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND UPSLOPE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH WILL AIDE IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALONG WITH THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS REMAINED ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND THE IMPACTS FROM THIS RAIN FOR TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STARTING OUT VERY MILD WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL RANGE FROM 1.6 TO 2.2 TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD BACK RISE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MOIST AIR MASS WITH LIMIT DROP IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 0315 AM EDT TUESDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW. DESPITE THE PASSING OF THE FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS UNITED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO-TENN VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS TROUGH COULD BECOME A CLOSED LOW ON THURSDAY. IF THIS CLOSED LOW DOES TAKE SHAPE...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. TO PUT A GOOD SPIN ON A DREARY FORECAST...THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE ROUGH AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION AND MODERATE DYNAMICS PRODUCE A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS. WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED PLAYING FIELD...MODERATE RAIN RATES AND A RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING LINE OF STORMS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SOME THUNDER MAY BE HEARD WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS VERY LOW. MORNING RAIN AND THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COOL NORTHERLY AIR AND RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE 5F-10F BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY... THE UPPER TROUGH PAIRED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW PAIRING WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE POINTS AT ROUGHLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. ONCE THIS TAKES PLACE...ANTICIPATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND NOTABLY COOLER AIR ADVANCING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY... POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AREAWIDE AS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ADVANCES NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST REGION. RAINFALL WILL CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO BOUNCE UP AND DOWN...POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 1SM AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT IFR LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS... BUT WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH 30/00Z...BEFORE FALLING BACK TO IFR LEVELS FOR THE NIGHT. RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA...RESULTING IN MORE OF A LIGHT SHOWERY NATURE. REGARDLESS...EXPECT IFR STRATUS AND MVFR FOG WILL FILL BACK IN...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. BETTER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON... SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PERSIST HOWEVER...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... MODELS SUGGEST POOR FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS A LARGE GEOGRAPHIC AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY... LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TRACKING FROM AROUND RALEIGH TO BLACKSBURG SINCE AROUND 8PM. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN LESS THAN THREE HOURS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. RATES WERE AS HIGH AS 0.50 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS RAIN WAS FALLING OVER COUNTIES THAT ALREADY HAD AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MODELS WERE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE UPSLOPE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE ONGOING FEED OF MOISTURE AND TRAINING SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A MAJORITY OF THE RAIN THAT FALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO RUNOFF...INITIALLY IMPACTING SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH RAPID RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. LATER TODAY AND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL RESPOND TO THE RAINFALL. FLOODING ON THE RIVERS IS NOT CERTAIN BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ012>020- 022>024-032>035-043>045-058. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001>006- 018>020. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/NF SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AMS/NF HYDROLOGY...NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
350 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015 ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRY TO SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL CAP WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS FROM MAKING IT VERY FAR EAST. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OR AT LEAST ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIE OFF AROUND INTERSTATE 25. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME ELEVATED AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. HRRR MODEL...WHICH HAS HANDLED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL THE LAST COUPLE DAYS DOES DEVELOP ELEVATED CONVECTION. BASED ON THE HRRR THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WILL DIE OFF AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING/NORTHEAST COLORADO WHILE ANOTHER BATCH OF ACTIVITY WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY MID EVENING. FORECAST POPS GENERALLY REPRESENT THE HRRR SOLUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ARE VERY UNLIKELY BUT A FEW WINDS GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT IN HOW FAR WEST AND NORTH THE STRATUS AND FOG WILL MAKE IT BUT IT COULD PARALLEL THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BECOME WEST ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE WESTERN FLANKS OF FOG AND STRATUS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF WEAK THETAE ADVECTION NEAR THE TOP OF A SHALLOW SATURATED INVERSION. MOST OF THE FOG/LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE WILL ERODE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW BUT PLACES LIKE ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY NEBRASKA MAY NOT SEE THE SUN TOMORROW AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY HOLD THE STRATUS IN PLACE. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMAL WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN CHANCES IN AND NEAR THE SNOWY RANGE AND SIERRA MADRE RANGE. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CAP WILL HOLD AND IF THERE WILL BE ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN PLACE. NOT CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE STORMS INTO THE PLAINS BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015 RAIN AND SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROF MOVES EAST AND PIVOTS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME SNOW STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER MTNS BUT NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS INTO SAT MORNING SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. SOME LULL IN THE PCPN ON SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT IMPULSE IN THE FLOW ROTATES ACROSS SAT NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN. IN THE MEANTIME A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL DROP DOWN ALONG THE WEST COAST SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW DRIFT NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHORT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA SUNDAY DRYING THINGS OUT AND ALLOWING FOR MILDER TEMPS AFTER A COOL DAY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LOW BEGINS SPREADING PCPN BACK OVER THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AGAIN SNOWS LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MTN ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD...CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015 VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE WY TERMINALS THOUGH KCYS MAY HOLD AN MVFR CIG BRIEFLY. OVER THE PANHANDLE WDSPRD MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE SLOWLY TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTRMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 350 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2015 HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH. THAT WILL BE THE ONLY AREA WITH ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH SNOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ABOVE 9000 FEET BUT COULD SEE SOME SNOW AS LOW AS 8000 FEET. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SML LONG TERM...RE AVIATION...RE FIRE WEATHER...SML