Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/28/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
956 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MUCH OF THE
REGION IS ABLE TO OBSERVE THE SUPERMOON ECLPISE. THE HRRR MAY BE
OVERDOING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE UINTA MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT. DO NOT SEE ANY EVIDIENCE THAT SHOWERS ARE FORMING ON SALT
LAKE`S RADAR OUR OURS...SO TEMPERED THE POP GRIDS A BIT IN THE
EVENING UPDATE. APPEARED THAT SHOWERS DID FORM ALONG THE NRN
BORDER OF DAGGETT COUNTY BEFORE SUNSET...BUT THESE HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS A RESULT THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND CARRY A COUPLE
OF WEAK WAVES FROM WEST TO EAST...MAINLY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE TAIL END OF ONE WAVE WILL BRUSH OUR NORTHERN EDGE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WE HAVE SEEN A BETTER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE UINTA...FLATTOPS AND PARK RANGES THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. OF MOST INTEREST FOR TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED CLOUD COVER FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS
EVENING. IT APPEARS SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY FILTER THE VIEW FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE THIN. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM AROUND THE TAVAPUTS PLATEAU/FLATTOPS AND
NORTH...WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE THICKER. BUT EVEN THERE THE
MOON SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT VISIBLE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO THE BETTER CLOUDS.
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT. THEREFORE A
FEW SHOWERS AND LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...
WITH LOWS INCREASING JUST A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE BRUSHES
THE FORECAST AREA. ON WED THE RIDGE WILL REBOUND ALONG THE UT/CO
BORDER...PUMPED UP BY THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST.
WHILE THE MID TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE BIG
PICTURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN WHEN THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA...AND IN HOW QUICK THE
TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. IN ANY CASE...THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
WED AND THU AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ON
THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN.
THE ECMWF IS FASTER BY AROUND 12 HOURS...WITH THE COLD
FRONT JUST ABOUT TO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER AT 00Z FRI. THE EC ALSO
SHOWS THE LOW CENTER QUICKLY BRUSHING OUR NORTHERN EDGE EARLY
FRIDAY AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE THEN FOLLOWS FOR SUN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE GFS IS
AROUND 12 HOURS SLOWER...WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE NORTHWEST
CORNER AT AROUND 12Z FRI. IN THIS SOLUTION THE LOW CENTER WILL
MOVE OVER NE UT/NW CO/SW WY FRI EVENING...AND LINGER OVER
NORTHWEST CO THROUGH EARLY SAT. ENERGY THEN SPLITS OFF THE MAIN
LOW AND RETROGRADES...LEAVING GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER WY TO THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH SUN. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI AFTERNOON...WITH A DOWNTURN AFTER
THAT. EXPECT THAT THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED AS
THIS SYSTEM NEARS AND MODEL SOLUTIONS EVOLVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 556 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
NORTH OF KVEL: ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE
UINTA MOUNTAINS. THIS THREAT EXPANDS INTO NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z
MONDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KVEL-KSBS.
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED -TSRA WILL FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
SURROUNDING KSBS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES...P6SM WITH SCATTERED CIRRUS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD BROKEN LAYER AFTER 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SLOWED THE WARMING PROCESS
CONSIDERABLY.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE
EASTERN CO BORDER. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SFC WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BE MORE SOUTHERLY THEN E-SE...BUT HRRR...WRF AND RUC MODELS HINT
AT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING RIGHT ALONG THE ARKANSAS TONIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THIS WOULD AID IN SOME LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES...AND PORTIONS
OF KIOWA AND BACA COUNTIES AS WELL...WITH KLHX AND KLAA BEING THE
MAIN AREAS AFFECTED. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FROM 06Z-13Z TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND NOT BECOME DENSE.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 50F FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...60S AND 70S FOR THE MTS. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
...PATTERN TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE...
THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD AS LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THEY SHOULD BRING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME SCTD PRECIP TO THE REGION.
MONDAY...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL
BE IN THE 85 TO 90F RANGE WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEMPS IN THE
VALLEYS WILL ALSO BE WARM WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F. AN ISOLD SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TUESDAY...
A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME DOWN THE PLAINS SOMETIME
TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE AT MIDDLE LEVELS MOVES TO OUR NORTH.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH SOME CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD
TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER REGIONWIDE WITH
HIGHS ON THE PLAINS RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE
QUITE MILD IN THE VALLEYS WITH 70S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY...
WE GET HOT AGAIN WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
HIGHS. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
THURSDAY...
BOTH MODELS SHOW A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE COMING TOWARDS THE REGION
FROM THE WEST ON THIS DAY. GFS IS A BIT WEAKER BUT QUICKER WITH THE
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS STRONGER AND A BIT SLOWER. IN EITHER CASE
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE HOT ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WITH MID 80S TO L90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 70S VALLEYS. FOR
NOW...I ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE C MTNS THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIMES LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. IF EC IS CORRECT...WE WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...POPS CHANCES WILL BE LESS AS SHORT WAVE IS
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. ATTM...MAX TEMPS FOR THU ARE PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S....BUT I THINK THESE VALUES MAY BE A
BIT WARM NO MATTER WHAT GUIDANCE VERIFIES. I WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISED IF LATER NDFD FCST COME IN COOLER FOR MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB
AND KALS. SFC WINDS ALONG THE KANSAS STATE LINE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF E-SE...SO ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY IN BENT
AND PROWERS COUNTIES...MAINLY AFFECTING KLAA. HOWEVER...LIGHT FOG IN
KLHX IS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL BETWEEN 08-13Z. FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED
TO BECOME DENSE AS IT DID THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1013 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The 8 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a complex weather
pattern across the Gulf of Mexico. There was a non-tropical
1008 mb low centered off the TX-LA coast, with a developing
frontal zone east of this low extending across central FL. A
relatively strong high pressure ridge was building down the
Piedmont, and the gradient between these two features was causing
the wind speeds to increase across the Gulf coastal waters. There
was another 1008 mb low, the one we have been monitoring for
possible tropical development over the past few days, emerging
off the northern coast of the Yucatan. It remains disorganized,
with sporadic deep moist convection well away from the broad low-
level center. The UW CIMSS site indicates 30-40 kt of shear over
this system, and with a nearby surface low in the northwest Gulf
disrupting potential low- level inflow to its west, it remains
doubtful that this system will become a tropical cyclone.
However, deep layer moisture associated with this slowly
approaching low, and Q-G forcing associated with the deep layer
low over the western Gulf as well as nearby frontogenesis to our
south, will bring periods of rain to our region the next few days.
For tonight, the highest Pop will be west and south of
Tallahassee, where the best combination of deep layer moisture and
Q-G forcing coincides. We do not expect much in the way of heavy
rain or severe weather overnight, though the environment could
become a little more favorable on Monday.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Tuesday]...As has been the case the past several
model cycles, the GFS and NAM MOS continue to maintain IFR or
lower cigs through the period, while the HRRR and other high-
resolution NWP guidance have mainly MVFR levels. Our forecast is
a compromise, with predominantly low-end MVFR cigs (1-2k ft AGL).
Periods of light to moderate RA are expected at KECP later
tonight, lasting for the entire period, and at the other
terminals in our forecast area Monday and Monday night.
Occasionally heavy RA is likely as well, accompanied by IFR Vis
and cigs. TSRA will be isolated. E-NE winds around 10 KT will
persist.
&&
.Prev Discussion [418 PM EDT]...
.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
A weak low pressure system moving through the Gulf of Mexico
approaches the coast in the short term and the center moves on
shore Tuesday. The effects of this system are already being felt
today with rain across the CWA, however the main impacts will be
during the short term period.
The 12z ECMWF came a little more in line with the GFS today with a
more westward track of the center but it isn`t quite as far west
as the GFS. The NAM is slightly faster than the GFS and a tad bit
further west than the GFS. GFS still appears to be the compromise
in terms of track and given its consistency run to run and
similarities to previous forecast, have once again leaned towards
the GFS for much of the short term forecast.
Deep layer moisture will be in place at the start of the short
term and the PWs continue to remain in record territory with
values on the GFS BUFR sounding ranging from 2.3 to 2.5 inches
Monday through Monday night. Although there is a high chance of
rain through Tuesday, the best chances are forecast for Monday and
Monday night with nearly a 100% chance of rain along the coast and
70% chance further inland. This time period corresponds to when
the threat for heavy rain is the greatest and more details can be
found in the hydro section. During this time period (Monday to
Monday night), the better chances for thunderstorms will be closer
to the coast where instability is greater. Local hi-res models
support decent helicity values Monday and Monday night and thus
the potential exists for an isolated tornado with the best chances
mainly south of I-10.
The surface low is forecast to move across the Florida panhandle
on Tuesday and have continued with the higher rain chances, but
this begins to taper off Tuesday night as the sfc low continues to
track northeast.
.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
An upper level trough deepens across the Southeast on Wednesday
which helps to keep above normal rain chances across the CWA. Big
differences between the GFS and ECMWF by the end of the week
though. GFS dives a closed upper level low in the aforementioned
trough southward while the ECMWF is more subtle with a weak
shortwave in the upper level flow. Either way, there should be a
drying trend for the weekend.
.Marine...
Easterly winds will continue through tonight ahead of a low
pressure system. Have already seen an increase in wind speeds and
this increase will continue through Tuesday. Given the higher
speeds, will include a Small Craft Exercise Caution statement
through Monday night, however an Advisory may be needed on Monday
given increasing wave heights.
.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days as heavy rains are expected to overspread the region.
.Hydrology...
Primary focus will continue to be on the approaching
storm system and the associated heavy rain threat. High-res guidance
suggests the threat for the heaviest rainfall will be nearer to the
coast and not as far inland as indicated yesterday. As a result,
storm total rainfall amounts for this event have been adjusted.
Storm total rainfall of 2 to 3 inches is anticipated across the
Florida Panhandle and into the Florida Big Bend with isolated
heavier totals possible. Further inland, rainfall amounts should
generally be around 1 to 2 inches.
With the heavier amounts nearer to the coast, area rivers will be
able to handle this event without reaching flood stage given the
recent dry conditions. With current streamflows, we`d need several
inches of rain to get into the upper portions of many of the larger
rivers and streams to produce river flooding - which is something we
don`t see happening with this particular event.
With the overall lower forecasted rainfall amounts, in addition to
the low confidence in regards to the rainfall placement, the
situation is not supportive of a Flash Flood Watch at this time
and will let the midnight shift re-evaluate.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 72 81 74 84 73 / 50 100 80 60 40
Panama City 73 80 74 82 74 / 70 100 80 60 40
Dothan 69 79 71 82 69 / 40 70 80 60 40
Albany 69 81 72 82 71 / 20 70 70 60 50
Valdosta 71 82 73 83 72 / 30 70 70 60 40
Cross City 72 84 74 84 74 / 40 80 80 70 40
Apalachicola 75 81 77 82 74 / 70 100 80 60 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...FIEUX
LONG TERM...FIEUX
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...FIEUX
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
757 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.AVIATION...
SIMILAR CONSTRAINTS TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON MONDAY, AS THERE
WAS TODAY. MIDLEVELS TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM EVEN FURTHER
MONDAY AND RESULTING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. DESPITE THE
MORE FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR EAST COAST ACTIVITY, THICK HIGH
CLOUDS AGAIN COULD LIMIT COVERAGE. IF LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
HOLDS TOGETHER TO THE GULF COAST, APF COULD IMPACTED WITH MVFR/IFR
CONDS LATER TONIGHT. WHAT`S LEFT OF THIS LINE, OR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT MAY CROSS SOME OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS INTO DAWN,
SOME POTENTIALLY WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015/
UPDATE...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS TAME TODAY COMPARED WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN
DUE TO HEAVY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCED DIURNAL HEATING. EVEN THOUGH, PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION NOW MOVING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE KEYS. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS
BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER. DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE, THE HRRR SHOWS
IT MOVING TO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS AND THEN
RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ASHORE. CANNOT ARGUE WITH THAT SET
UP AND PLAN TO ADJUST THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015/
.CORRECTED EXTENDED PERIOD TIMING AND MARINE PARAGRAPH...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
A LARGE CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES NEAR
THE TEXAS/GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS IS FEEDING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER, THE HEAVY CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE BAND
IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING DIURNAL HEATING AND THE ACTIVITY IS NOT
AS WIDESPREAD AS IT COULD HAVE BEEN IF SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE HAD
BEEN IN PLACE. THEREFORE, HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WHICH HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CUT-
OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WITH PWAT VALUES AT 2"+ WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
PERIOD, MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
IN ADDITION, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG BOTH
COASTS AS ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES OCCUR WITH THE PEAK BEING ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH TIDES ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE "SUPER MOON"
TONIGHT SO THE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLEASE REFER TO CFWMFL FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)... AS THE TWO TROUGHS MERGE LATER
THIS WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
THE HIGH MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH THE LOW WILL MOVE BUT BOTH MODES ARE SHOWING A DRYING TREND
BY NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT, THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE SHOWS DEW POINTS
LOWERING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
WHILE MAINTAINING 70 NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
MARINE...
A GENERAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EXCEPT 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET
OR LESS. THE WIND WILL THEN VEER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. A SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST EARLY
THIS WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST. AS A
RESULT, ATLANTIC SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET OFF THE PALM BEACH
COAST AND POSSIBLY TO 6 FEET MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 90 77 89 / 20 50 30 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 79 90 / 20 40 20 60
MIAMI 79 90 80 91 / 30 40 20 60
NAPLES 77 89 78 87 / 40 50 50 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
739 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS TAME TODAY COMPARED WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN
DUE TO HEAVY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCED DIURNAL HEATING. EVEN THOUGH, PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION NOW MOVING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE KEYS. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THIS
BAND WILL HOLD TOGETHER. DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE, THE HRRR SHOWS
IT MOVING TO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS AND THEN
RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ASHORE. CANNOT ARGUE WITH THAT SET
UP AND PLAN TO ADJUST THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015/
..CORRECTED EXTENDED PERIOD TIMING AND MARINE PARAGRAPH...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
A LARGE CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES NEAR
THE TEXAS/GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS IS FEEDING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER, THE HEAVY CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE BAND
IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING DIURNAL HEATING AND THE ACTIVITY IS NOT
AS WIDESPREAD AS IT COULD HAVE BEEN IF SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE HAD
BEEN IN PLACE. THEREFORE, HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WHICH HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CUT-
OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT WITH PWAT VALUES AT 2"+ WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
PERIOD, MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
IN ADDITION, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG BOTH
COASTS AS ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES OCCUR WITH THE PEAK BEING ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH TIDES ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE "SUPER MOON"
TONIGHT SO THE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLEASE REFER TO CFWMFL FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)... AS THE TWO TROUGHS MERGE LATER
THIS WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
THE HIGH MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH THE LOW WILL MOVE BUT BOTH MODES ARE SHOWING A DRYING TREND
BY NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT, THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE SHOWS DEW POINTS
LOWERING TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
WHILE MAINTAINING 70 NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
MARINE...
A GENERAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY EXCEPT 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS OF 3 FEET
OR LESS. THE WIND WILL THEN VEER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. A SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST EARLY
THIS WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST. AS A
RESULT, ATLANTIC SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET OFF THE PALM BEACH
COAST AND POSSIBLY TO 6 FEET MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
352 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.CURRENTLY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY IN
NE FL SLOWLY PUSHING WWD TO NW. NOT WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY SO
FAR WITH SBCAPE MAXIMIZED AT ABOUT 2000-2500 J/KG...BUT AIRMASS
IS FAIRLY TROPICAL WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF ABOUT -6 AND NARROW CAPE
ALOFT. ANTICIPATE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION REST OF THE AFTN MAINLY
INLAND WITH MAIN CONCERN LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY IN NE FL.
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN THE EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY FADE WITH COASTAL TROUGH SET UP AGAIN TO PRODUCE
SOME OVERNIGHT MARINE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTMS IN CONVERGENT
LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY COMING IN OFF
THE ATLC. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE
FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT. RAP AND SREF SHOW A VERY MOIST LAYER AROUND
500-1000 FT WITH SREF LOW CIGS PROBABILITIES BETTER THAN 70%. LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY...AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECT SCATTERED
MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS TO SHIFT INLAND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A WEAK SURFACE LOW DRIFTING INTO THE GULF...NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAYS. HIGH
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MODELS SHOW SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND
SUWANNEE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS POPS WILL BE HIGHER OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW PWATS REACHING NEAR 2.5" WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ENHANCED
BY UPPER IMPULSES IN SW FLOW ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY STILL EVIDENT IN
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WITH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MOVING LOW INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS S GA TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
SHOWS A TRACK FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NE FL
WITH HIGHER QPF VALUES FOR NE FL.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WEAKENS AND OPENS UP AS IT PHASES WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA DECREASING THE HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES.
ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS AND A CONTINUING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING ...WITH LOW CIGS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO IFR AND
POSSIBLY INTO LIFR CATEGORY AFTER 06Z...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
AROUND THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY
14Z/15Z SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...E TO NE WINDS AOB 15 KT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE. WINDS WILL SLACKEN THROUGH
BY MONDAY AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. WIND DIRECTION VEERS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE WEDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS
AND SURF AROUND THE 3 FT RANGE.
COASTAL IMPACTS: ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS
EVENING HIGH TIDE AND ONSHORE WINDS. BASED ON GUIDANCE...WE SHOULD
JUST TOUCH MINOR FLOODING CRITERIA. WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THIS ADVISORY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DUE TO UPCOMING FULL MOON AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 69 84 70 83 / 30 40 20 60
SSI 72 79 72 79 / 30 30 30 50
JAX 72 82 73 83 / 30 40 20 60
SGJ 75 81 73 82 / 30 40 30 50
GNV 71 85 71 84 / 30 50 30 60
OCF 72 87 72 86 / 40 50 40 60
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL DUVAL-
COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU-ST. JOHNS.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/ZIBURA/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
156 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE SHORT TERM...TERMINAL KOPF IS CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY
A THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORMING ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES WITH SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF MOST OF THE
TERMINALS...MAINLY FROM THE INTERIOR REGIONS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE INLAND
BUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS...WITH ALL TERMINALS ASSIGNED
VCTS AROUND THE 18Z TIME FRAME. WITH ANY SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
UPDATE...
WHILE THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE PWAT AT TWO INCHES...OTHERWISE THERE ARE
RELATIVELY POOR LAPSE RATES AND WARMER MID-LEVELS. SO WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT MESO-SCALE MODELS
INDICATING MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE IN THE INTERIOR
REGIONS OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
MAIN EXPECTED IMPACT WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...BUT SO FAR THIS MORNING HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY
REPORTS ON ANY OCCURRENCE OF WATERSPOUTS.
CONTINUE TO RECEIVE REPORTS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH REPORTS FROM NAPLES...MIAMI BEACH AND MATHESON PARK
ALL REPORTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING OBSERVED WATER LEVELS HIGHER THAN
PREDICTED LEVELS...WITH CURRENT VALUES AT VIRGINIA KEY ABOUT ONE
FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WITH NAPLES CURRENTLY ABOUT THREE
QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL ZONES WITH MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH TIDES THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
AVIATION...
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALL THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL HAVE
VCSH FOR PERIODS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TODAY...WITH MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. HOWEVER...ALL TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 18Z WITH MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION INITIATING
AROUND THAT TIME. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
CONVECTION MAINLY EXPECTED INTERIOR REGIONS.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH WEAK RIDGING FURTHER EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD AS
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND REMAINING NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF...THOUGH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT PER NHC DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. EITHER WAY...MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS LOW
WELL WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. HOWEVER, IT STILL WILL BE RATHER MOIST LOCALLY ON A
PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST WITH
LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LIKE THE HRRR SOLUTION TODAY WITH CONVECTION FAVORING THE EAST
COAST THIS MORNING (THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ACTIVE) BEFORE
DEVELOPING/TRANSITIONING FURTHER INLAND. SO CUT POPS DOWN FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO THE MODEL BLEND
OUTPUT.
LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS...SO
THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACT TODAY...AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THAT
MATTER...WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES.
BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...THE CUT OFF LOW LOOKS TO OPEN UP AND HEAD
EAST. GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE
RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FL WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SHARPER TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH FL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH MORE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FL. SO THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
IS UNCERTAIN.
TIDES ACROSS SOUTH FL ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 0.8 FEET ABOVE
PREDICTED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WAS OBSERVED AT NAPLES AND MIAMI
BEACH YESTERDAY...AND AS TIDES RISE TOWARDS A PEAK MONDAY
MORNING...ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING IS ALMOST CERTAIN IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE AREAS AT EACH TIDE CYCLE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR
THE ATLANTIC COAST IS NEAR SUNRISE THEN BETWEEN 7-8 PM THIS
EVENING. FOR NAPLES THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS AT AROUND NOON TIME THEN
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. /GREGORIA
MARINE...
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE...PREVAILING AT 5-10 KT THEN
INCREASING JUST A TAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL PREVAIL AT 4 FT
OR LESS WITH A SMALL NORTH SWELL ATLANTIC WATERS. A SOMEWHAT
LARGER SWELL ARRIVES MONDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
ESPECIALLY OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH WAVES PERHAPS TO 5 FT, WITH
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE WINDS MAY
VEER SOMEWHAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 89 77 89 / 20 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 89 78 88 / 20 30 20 30
MIAMI 78 89 78 90 / 20 30 20 40
NAPLES 76 91 76 90 / 40 40 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1120 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
WHILE THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE PWAT AT TWO INCHES...OTHERWISE THERE ARE
RELATIVELY POOR LAPSE RATES AND WARMER MID-LEVELS. SO WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT MESO-SCALE MODELS
INDICATING MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE IN THE INTERIOR
REGIONS OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
MAIN EXPECTED IMPACT WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...BUT SO FAR THIS MORNING HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY
REPORTS ON ANY OCCURRENCE OF WATERSPOUTS.
CONTINUE TO RECEIVE REPORTS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH REPORTS FROM NAPLES...MIAMI BEACH AND MATHESON PARK
ALL REPORTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING OBSERVED WATER LEVELS HIGHER THAN
PREDICTED LEVELS...WITH CURRENT VALUES AT VIRGINIA KEY ABOUT ONE
FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WITH NAPLES CURRENTLY ABOUT THREE
QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL ZONES WITH MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH TIDES THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
AVIATION...
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALL THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL HAVE
VCSH FOR PERIODS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TODAY...WITH MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. HOWEVER...ALL TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 18Z WITH MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION INITIATING
AROUND THAT TIME. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
CONVECTION MAINLY EXPECTED INTERIOR REGIONS.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH WEAK RIDGING FURTHER EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD AS
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND REMAINING NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF...THOUGH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT PER NHC DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. EITHER WAY...MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS LOW
WELL WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. HOWEVER, IT STILL WILL BE RATHER MOIST LOCALLY ON A
PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST WITH
LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LIKE THE HRRR SOLUTION TODAY WITH CONVECTION FAVORING THE EAST
COAST THIS MORNING (THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ACTIVE) BEFORE
DEVELOPING/TRANSITIONING FURTHER INLAND. SO CUT POPS DOWN FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO THE MODEL BLEND
OUTPUT.
LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS...SO
THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACT TODAY...AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THAT
MATTER...WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES.
BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...THE CUT OFF LOW LOOKS TO OPEN UP AND HEAD
EAST. GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE
RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FL WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SHARPER TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH FL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH MORE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FL. SO THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
IS UNCERTAIN.
TIDES ACROSS SOUTH FL ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 0.8 FEET ABOVE
PREDICTED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WAS OBSERVED AT NAPLES AND MIAMI
BEACH YESTERDAY...AND AS TIDES RISE TOWARDS A PEAK MONDAY
MORNING...ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING IS ALMOST CERTAIN IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE AREAS AT EACH TIDE CYCLE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR
THE ATLANTIC COAST IS NEAR SUNRISE THEN BETWEEN 7-8 PM THIS
EVENING. FOR NAPLES THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS AT AROUND NOON TIME THEN
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. /GREGORIA
MARINE...
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE...PREVAILING AT 5-10 KT THEN
INCREASING JUST A TAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL PREVAIL AT 4 FT
OR LESS WITH A SMALL NORTH SWELL ATLANTIC WATERS. A SOMEWHAT
LARGER SWELL ARRIVES MONDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
ESPECIALLY OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH WAVES PERHAPS TO 5 FT, WITH
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE WINDS MAY
VEER SOMEWHAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 89 77 / 30 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 89 78 / 20 20 30 20
MIAMI 90 78 89 78 / 30 20 30 20
NAPLES 90 76 91 76 / 40 40 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
744 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.AVIATION...
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALL THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL HAVE
VCSH FOR PERIODS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TODAY...WITH MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. HOWEVER...ALL TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 18Z WITH MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION INITIATING
AROUND THAT TIME. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
CONVECTION MAINLY EXPECTED INTERIOR REGIONS.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH WEAK RIDGING FURTHER EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD AS
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND REMAINING NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF...THOUGH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT PER NHC DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. EITHER WAY...MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS LOW
WELL WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. HOWEVER, IT STILL WILL BE RATHER MOIST LOCALLY ON A
PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST WITH
LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LIKE THE HRRR SOLUTION TODAY WITH CONVECTION FAVORING THE EAST
COAST THIS MORNING (THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ACTIVE) BEFORE
DEVELOPING/TRANSITIONING FURTHER INLAND. SO CUT POPS DOWN FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO THE MODEL BLEND
OUTPUT.
LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS...SO
THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACT TODAY...AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THAT
MATTER...WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES.
BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...THE CUT OFF LOW LOOKS TO OPEN UP AND HEAD
EAST. GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE
RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FL WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SHARPER TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH FL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH MORE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FL. SO THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
IS UNCERTAIN.
TIDES ACROSS SOUTH FL ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 0.8 FEET ABOVE
PREDICTED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WAS OBSERVED AT NAPLES AND MIAMI
BEACH YESTERDAY...AND AS TIDES RISE TOWARDS A PEAK MONDAY
MORNING...ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING IS ALMOST CERTAIN IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE AREAS AT EACH TIDE CYCLE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR
THE ATLANTIC COAST IS NEAR SUNRISE THEN BETWEEN 7-8 PM THIS
EVENING. FOR NAPLES THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS AT AROUND NOON TIME THEN
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. /GREGORIA
MARINE...
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE...PREVAILING AT 5-10 KT THEN
INCREASING JUST A TAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL PREVAIL AT 4 FT
OR LESS WITH A SMALL NORTH SWELL ATLANTIC WATERS. A SOMEWHAT
LARGER SWELL ARRIVES MONDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
ESPECIALLY OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH WAVES PERHAPS TO 5 FT, WITH
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE WINDS MAY
VEER SOMEWHAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 89 77 / 30 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 89 78 / 20 20 30 20
MIAMI 90 78 89 78 / 30 20 30 20
NAPLES 90 76 91 76 / 40 40 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
529 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
CONTAINED WELL ALONG OR TO THE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER AS IT
MOVES UP AND OVER A STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
FROM THIS RIDGE WE FIND AN UNPROGRESSIVE...BROAD...BUT DEEP UPPER
TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
UPPER LOWS CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH. ONE IS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE TN/OH
VALLEYS...WHILE ANOTHER IS SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES WITHIN THE DEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW/TROUGH. WV
IMAGERY IS SHOWS ABUNDANT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH
WITH THIS FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF.
AT THE SURFACE...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES WITHIN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE RESULTING FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST...AND OTHER THAN WEAK SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS NEAR
THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON...WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE CELLS WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. MAY SEE A BIT OF A
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY TOWARD DAWN AS THE NOCTURNAL LAND BREEZE
MAXIMIZES...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A GENERALLY BENIGN FORECAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS...OTHER THAN
SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
HOUR OR TWO OF DAYLIGHT. THINGS SEEM TO BE ALIGNING FOR A RATHER
ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER. THERE ARE SEVERAL FAVORABLE THINGS IN PLACE. FIRST
IS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE 1000-700MB MEAN FLOW IS LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FLOW IS GENERALLY OUR MOST ACTIVE ALONG
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE WARM SEASON SEA-
BREEZE THUNDERSTORM MONTHS DUE TO ITS CONVERGENT FOCUS WITH THE
WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE. IN ADDITION TO THIS FAVORABLE WIND
PATTERN...THERE IS ABUNDANT COLUMN MOISTURE IN PLACE. WHILE THE
DEEP MOISTURE TENDS TO LOWER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS...IT
INCREASES THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
EXPECT TO SEE THE FIRST STORMS DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY NEAR THE
COAST WITH THE INITIAL SEA-BREEZE...THEN EXPECT NUMEROUS
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO EXPAND INLAND AS NEW AND OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TAKE OVER THE STORM EVOLUTION. RAIN CHANCES OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA ARE ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
STORMS MAY BRIEFLY MAXIMIZE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...IT IS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL SEE A SECOND PUSH OF ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THIS EVENING...AS THE SEA-BREEZE SHUTS DOWN AND THE PREVAILING
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BACK TO THE WEST.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY END LATE IN THE
EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ACTIVE STORMS CLUSTER HOLDING TOGETHER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SUNDAY.
OVERALL...THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL CERTAINLY
HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL
BE WATCHING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL GULF AND BEGIN MOVING NORTH. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS LOW AS ITS
IMPACT PERTAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT A WEAK/SEMI-DISORGANIZED LOW WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AS ALWAYS...WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IN
CASE SOMETHING MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS.
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY...THIS LOW AND ANY POTENTIAL
IMPACTS WILL STILL BE TOO FAR AWAY FOR DIRECT EFFECTS. WHAT WILL
BE OCCURRING THOUGH IS A TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.
THIS STRONGER SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD GENERALLY PREVENT A STRONG
SEA-BREEZE OR PIN THIS BOUNDARY AT THE COAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THIS BEING SAID...AND COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DEEP
MOISTURE...WOULD ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING OF
DIURNAL STORMS.
EVEN WITHOUT OFFICIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE GULF LOW...A
TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA WOULD STILL POSE PROBLEMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BANDS BY MONDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THIS POTENTIAL...WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN
OFFSHORE. WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SHOULD GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOW ONCE THE FEATURE EMERGES
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A STRONG U/L CUT- OFF LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF HOWEVER LOCATION OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN. U/L DIFFLUENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
U/L TROUGH MAY CREATE A FAVORABLE AREA OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...AND ADVECTING LOCALLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE U/L
LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
WITH THE L/W TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
AND ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO A RATHER WET EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER LEANING MORE TOWARD A SREF SOLUTION ATTM WHICH HAS A MORE
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. WOULD EXPECT THE STRONG U/L CUT-OFF OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF TO INDUCE DOWNSTREAM U/L RIDGING OVER
FLORIDA...WHICH IS DEPICTED BEST BY THE SREF. THIS WOULD INITIALLY
DECREASE POPS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY HOLDING THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST POSSIBLY REACHING THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INCREASE MID WEEK
AS THE SYSTEM OPENS UP AND LIFTS OUT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE L/W TROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER WILL GO BELOW GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL EXPECT SOME OF
THESE CEILING RESTRICTIONS TO BUILD SOUTH IN THE FEW HOURS
SURROUNDING DAWN...AND BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KTPA/KLAL/KSRQ/KPIE BETWEEN 10-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
MID MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCT-NMRS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ALL TERMINALS RUN A RISK OF A PASSING STORM AFTER 17Z.
&&
.MARINE...
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SWITCH ONSHORE
WITH SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. THE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF IS FORECAST TO STAY
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS MAY REACH CAUTIONARY
LEVELS AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A MOIST
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST.
EITHER WAY... MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE VERY HIGH...WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOG POTENTIAL...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT
FOG OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 75 89 76 / 60 50 60 50
FMY 90 75 91 76 / 40 40 60 50
GIF 90 74 90 75 / 50 40 50 40
SRQ 87 75 88 76 / 40 40 50 50
BKV 89 73 90 73 / 60 50 60 40
SPG 88 77 89 78 / 50 40 50 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
422 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH WEAK RIDGING FURTHER EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD AS
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND REMAINING NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF...THOUGH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT PER NHC DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. EITHER WAY...MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS LOW
WELL WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. HOWEVER, IT STILL WILL BE RATHER MOIST LOCALLY ON A
PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST WITH
LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LIKE THE HRRR SOLUTION TODAY WITH CONVECTION FAVORING THE EAST
COAST THIS MORNING (THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ACTIVE) BEFORE
DEVELOPING/TRANSITIONING FURTHER INLAND. SO CUT POPS DOWN FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO THE MODEL BLEND
OUTPUT.
LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS...SO
THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACT TODAY...AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THAT
MATTER...WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES.
BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...THE CUT OFF LOW LOOKS TO OPEN UP AND HEAD
EAST. GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE
RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FL WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SHARPER TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH FL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH MORE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FL. SO THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
IS UNCERTAIN.
TIDES ACROSS SOUTH FL ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 0.8 FEET ABOVE
PREDICTED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WAS OBSERVED AT NAPLES AND MIAMI
BEACH YESTERDAY...AND AS TIDES RISE TOWARDS A PEAK MONDAY
MORNING...ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING IS ALMOST CERTAIN IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE AREAS AT EACH TIDE CYCLE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR
THE ATLANTIC COAST IS NEAR SUNRISE THEN BETWEEN 7-8 PM THIS
EVENING. FOR NAPLES THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS AT AROUND NOON TIME THEN
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. /GREGORIA
&&
.MARINE...
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE...PREVAILING AT 5-10 KT THEN
INCREASING JUST A TAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL PREVAIL AT 4 FT
OR LESS WITH A SMALL NORTH SWELL ATLANTIC WATERS. A SOMEWHAT
LARGER SWELL ARRIVES MONDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
ESPECIALLY OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH WAVES PERHAPS TO 5 FT, WITH
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE WINDS MAY
VEER SOMEWHAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 89 77 / 30 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 89 78 / 20 20 30 20
MIAMI 90 78 89 78 / 30 20 30 20
NAPLES 90 76 91 76 / 40 40 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
158 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN GIVE WAY TO EASTERLY WIND IN THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. HAVE VCTS IN ALL
TAFS TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF IFR UNDER ANY HEAVY SHOWERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015/
UPDATE...
MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. STILL
THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, CONSIDERING THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST WAS UNTOUCHED THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT AND NEAR DAWN CAN ONCE AGAIN
PRODUCE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE BEACHES, WHICH MAY LEAD WATER TO
ISSUES ALONG MIAMI BEACH AGAIN, CONSIDERING HIGH TIDE IS AROUND
7AM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON NIGHT)...
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, NOW FOR
WEST AND EAST COASTS. ANY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND, EVEN MORE SO
AROUND HIGH TIDE, WILL EXACERBATE THE SITUATION.
LESS HIGH CLOUDS TODAY, HAS ALLOWED FOR BETTER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY
PROGRESSED INLAND, SUCH THAT MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE OVER THE
INTERIOR OR FAR WESTERN SUBURBS. WITH WEAK WIND PROFILE STILL IN
PLACE, AND SHOWERS CURRENTLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST, HRRR SHOWS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS MOVING BACK TOWARDS THE METRO AND
BEACHES INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS PROCESS MAY HAPPEN A LITTLE
EARLIER THOUGH THROUGH PALM BEACH COUNTY, WITH MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT IN THE MEAN WIND/STORM MOTION THERE. HEAVY RAINFALL
AGAIN APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT CONSIDERING MOVEMENT.
MITIGATING FACTOR FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE A NOTABLE
MID LEVEL INVERSION FROM THIS MORNING`S RAOB. MODEL SOUNDING
FORECASTED AFTERNOON CAPE ISN`T VERY IMPRESSIVE.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...AS PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL FL
CONTINUES TO WASH OUT, EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
DEEPER, ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. WITH SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY,
MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE INTERIOR AND OFF THE COAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PERHAPS A SMALLER CHC OF ACTIVITY BLEEDING BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THAN TODAY. INSTABILITY IS NOTHING TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT WITH SIMILAR H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPS TO TODAY.
IF MID LEVEL INVERSION FROM THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING REMAINS, THAT
COULD RESTRICT ACTIVITY AGAIN. PWATS THOUGH REMAIN ABOVE 2" AND
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...
EASTERLY FLOW TRIES TO BECOME A LITTLE DEEPER AND STRONGER, ALTHOUGH
LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS HAVING
PROBLEMS EXERTING INFLUENCE, WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/SURFACE TROUGH
STUCK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. H5 TEMP PERHAPS WARMS ABOVE
-6C. FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE INTERIOR,
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING OVER THE WEST COAST ALSO.
OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN OR CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS, BUT CONTINUES WEAKER. NHC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT IN
THEIR 5 DAY OUTLOOK AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY CONTINUES
ON A NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AFTER IT CROSSES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS THIS OCCURS, WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE
COLUMN, BECOMING MORE SSE AT THE SURFACE AND SSW ALOFT. THUS,
STORMS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH THE
CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION. HOWEVER, WITH AN H5 RIDGE STRETCHING
FURTHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THIS WEEKEND, H5 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH RATHER UNFAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
MODEL/BLENDED POPS MAY BE DRIVEN BY THE DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
EVOLVING AT ALL LEVELS, THAN TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
WE WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND HOW FAR
EAST DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADS TOWARDS OUR
GULF COAST REGION, ALTHOUGH CURRENT GUIDANCE POSSIBLY HAS THE LOW
STAYING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX/LA EARLY NEXT WEEK, OPENS UP
AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
THIS TROUGH. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS A GOOD CHUNK OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR ARRIVING INTO WEDNESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS MAY MITIGATE A WIND FIELD
WHICH MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS FOCUSED THROUGH THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST PER THE DEEPER ECMWF LATE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE...PREVAILING AT 5-10 KT THEN
INCREASING JUST A TAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL PREVAIL AT 4 FT
OR LESS WITH A SMALL NORTH SWELL ATLANTIC WATERS. A SOMEWHAT
LARGER SWELL ARRIVES MONDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
ESPECIALLY OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH WAVES PERHAPS TO 5 FT, WITH
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE WINDS MAY
VEER SOMEWHAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 89 77 / 40 20 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 89 79 / 30 20 30 20
MIAMI 90 78 90 78 / 50 20 40 20
NAPLES 90 76 90 76 / 40 20 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
924 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
REGION THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ATTEMPTED TO BECOME
CONVECTIVE AROUND 4 AM MDT BUT QUICKLY LOST STRENGTH. SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR...ENDING MID-MORNING. WE WILL
HAVE SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH AN
EXPECTED AFTERNOON CLEARING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR IN SE OREGON. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCT-
BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED -SHRA IN SW IDAHO THIS
MORNING...THEN CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...
VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS BECOMING SOUTHWEST-NORTHWEST 5-15 KNOTS
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 20-
30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...VFR WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...6Z GFS NAILED THE SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW IDAHO AS OF 425 AM SO WILL
UPDATE WITH THAT AND HRRR FOR CELLS LIFTING NE THROUGH MID MORNING.
/END UPDATE/...CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING OVER SW IDAHO /WITH A COLD
FRONT/ WILL EXIT E LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH TWO
EXCEPTIONS. HIGH BASED CU IS EXPECTED NEAR THE OREGON BLUE MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER S CENTRAL
IDAHO NEAR THE DRY COLD FRONT. PRECIP NO LONGER EXPECTED FOR SRN
TWF COUNTY BUT RATHER FARTHER S/E. WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN S AND E OF OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDINESS ALONG
THE ID-NV BORDER AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
NAM/EC KEEP A BIT STRONGER UPPER RIDGE OVER US...ABOUT 30M LESS
HEIGHT FALLS THAN GFS...SO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS UP A LITTLE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS IS A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER FORECAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY. LOW LAYER 0-3KM WINDS UP TO 30 MPH YESTERDAY WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO EXPOSED/WELL MIXED AREAS WILL HAVE
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH TODAY AND 20 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE MOST
AREAS HAVE LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BOISE ID
323 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...6Z GFS NAILED THE SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW IDAHO AS OF 425 AM SO WILL
UPDATE WITH THAT AND HRRR FOR CELLS LIFTING NE THROUGH MIOD
MORNING. /END UPDATE/...CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING OVER SW IDAHO
/WITH A COLD FRONT/ WILL EXIT E LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS. HIGH BASED CU IS EXPECTED NEAR THE OREGON
BLUE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER
S CENTRAL IDAHO NEAR THE DRY COLD FRONT. PRECIP NO LONGER EXPECTED
FOR SRN TWF COUNTY BUT RATHER FARTHER S/E. WAVY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN S AND E OF OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION. NAM/EC KEEP A BIT STRONGER UPPER RIDGE OVER
US...ABOUT 30M LESS HEIGHT FALLS THAN GFS...SO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS
UP A LITTLE THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
FORECAST THAN PREVIOUSLY. LOW LAYER 0-3KM WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
YESTERDAY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO EXPOSED/WELL MIXED
AREAS WILL HAVE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH TODAY AND 20 MPH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE MOST AREAS HAVE LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS UP TO 10
MPH.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE
12KT OR LESS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...SW 20-30KT.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...SCT-BKN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS...BECOMING NW 5-15KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
900 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Still a lot of clouds over the area but see some breaks in the
east. Not enough breaks to make me want to change the sky cover
forecast as still expecting mostly cloudy skies. If skies become
more partly cloudy later, then will have to update then...just not
yet. Overall forecast looks good this evening and see no reason to
update at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Cloud cover remains fairly extensive across the area today, with the
earlier breaks near the I-74 corridor quickly filling in late
morning with diurnal cumulus. A few showers have been tracking
northwest out of southern Illinois, associated with what is left of
the upper low over the Tennessee Valley.
Forecast soundings not really showing much in the way of clearing
this evening, with skies mainly partly to mostly cloudy. A feature
of interest is overnight, with the last few runs of the RAP showing
a surge of stratus advecting northeast into our area after midnight
and covering most of the state, along with some dense fog late in
the night. The latest NAM model favors more of a patchy fog
scenario, which would seem more likely given the lack of widespread
clearing plus not much of a wind field to advect the low clouds into
this area, so will continue with mention of patchy fog for now.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
While by no means certain at this point, a bit more clarity has
started to develop in the forecast for the remainder of the week.
Above normal temperatures are expected to linger for a couple more
days, then trend toward normal in the wake of Tuesday`s cold front,
with below normal temperatures possible by the weekend as some
degree of upper troffing develops across eastern North America. The
model consensus has also trended back toward a drier solution for
the week, with the best chances of rainfall occurring in the
vicinity of the frontal passage on Tuesday.
Maintained a very low chance for rainfall on Monday as weak
disturbances track northeast up the Ohio River Valley from the Gulf
of Mexico. However, the very modest forcing and instability support
little more than we are currently seeing across southern Illinois
today as far as coverage and intensity.
A cold front, currently extending from northern Ontario into the
central Plains, will sink southeast across the forecast area later
Monday night into Tuesday. This front will not have much going for
it as far as support for precipitation production. The best forcing
will remain across Canada with the faster upper-level flow, with the
best moisture bottled up with a system along the Gulf coast. So,
plan to keep PoPs on the low side with fropa, and it is entirely
possible that most locations will remain dry. However, this appears
to be our best shot for widespread rainfall this week.
A Canadian surface high builds into the area behind the cold front,
which should help shave several degrees of the daily max/min
temperatures. Aloft, the flow across North America is expected to
transition from mostly zonal to more of a troffy pattern. However,
exactly how the upper pattern will look by late week and how we`ll
get there is still very much up for debate. Model spread remain
significant, with the spaghetti plots looking much like a pile of
spaghetti. There does not appear to be a strong signal for rainfall
at any one time, although there is some consensus that it is
possible over the weekend. Expect the weekend to be more dry than
not, but there will certainly be some risk of rain. We`ll have to
see how the models eventually resolve the coming pattern shift to
pin point the threat better.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
...Correction here to mention scattered pcpn on radar...
Based on satellite loops, looks like broken clouds will remain
over the area tonight and possibly the entire 24hr TAF period.
Could be some breaks this evening and overnight, but not very
optimistic at this time. Cigs are VFR levels and believe this
will continue this evening. Models continue to show MVFR cigs
later tonight, after midnight. And believe this still possible. So
will keep MVFR cigs around 2.5kft at all sites starting after
midnight with scattered clouds below 1kft. Then expecting cigs to
get higher tomorrow during the morning hours and then last through
the day. Radar also shows some very light and scattered pcpn this
evening. Believe this will continue for several more hours, but do
not think it warrants mention in the TAFs as it should be very,
very brief and should not affect cigs or vis. Light southeast
winds expected to become southerly overnight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
613 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Cloud cover remains fairly extensive across the area today, with the
earlier breaks near the I-74 corridor quickly filling in late
morning with diurnal cumulus. A few showers have been tracking
northwest out of southern Illinois, associated with what is left of
the upper low over the Tennessee Valley.
Forecast soundings not really showing much in the way of clearing
this evening, with skies mainly partly to mostly cloudy. A feature
of interest is overnight, with the last few runs of the RAP showing
a surge of stratus advecting northeast into our area after midnight
and covering most of the state, along with some dense fog late in
the night. The latest NAM model favors more of a patchy fog
scenario, which would seem more likely given the lack of widespread
clearing plus not much of a wind field to advect the low clouds into
this area, so will continue with mention of patchy fog for now.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
While by no means certain at this point, a bit more clarity has
started to develop in the forecast for the remainder of the week.
Above normal temperatures are expected to linger for a couple more
days, then trend toward normal in the wake of Tuesday`s cold front,
with below normal temperatures possible by the weekend as some
degree of upper troffing develops across eastern North America. The
model consensus has also trended back toward a drier solution for
the week, with the best chances of rainfall occurring in the
vicinity of the frontal passage on Tuesday.
Maintained a very low chance for rainfall on Monday as weak
disturbances track northeast up the Ohio River Valley from the Gulf
of Mexico. However, the very modest forcing and instability support
little more than we are currently seeing across southern Illinois
today as far as coverage and intensity.
A cold front, currently extending from northern Ontario into the
central Plains, will sink southeast across the forecast area later
Monday night into Tuesday. This front will not have much going for
it as far as support for precipitation production. The best forcing
will remain across Canada with the faster upper-level flow, with the
best moisture bottled up with a system along the Gulf coast. So,
plan to keep PoPs on the low side with fropa, and it is entirely
possible that most locations will remain dry. However, this appears
to be our best shot for widespread rainfall this week.
A Canadian surface high builds into the area behind the cold front,
which should help shave several degrees of the daily max/min
temperatures. Aloft, the flow across North America is expected to
transition from mostly zonal to more of a troffy pattern. However,
exactly how the upper pattern will look by late week and how we`ll
get there is still very much up for debate. Model spread remain
significant, with the spaghetti plots looking much like a pile of
spaghetti. There does not appear to be a strong signal for rainfall
at any one time, although there is some consensus that it is
possible over the weekend. Expect the weekend to be more dry than
not, but there will certainly be some risk of rain. We`ll have to
see how the models eventually resolve the coming pattern shift to
pin point the threat better.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Based on satellite loops, looks like broken clouds will remain
over the area tonight and possibly the entire 24hr TAF period.
Could be some breaks this evening and overnight, but not very
optimistic at this time. Cigs are VFR levels and believe this
will continue this evening. Models continue to show MVFR cigs
later tonight, after midnight. And believe this still possible. So
will keep MVFR cigs around 2.5kft at all sites starting after
midnight with scattered clouds below 1kft. Then expecting cigs to
get higher tomorrow during the morning hours and then last through
the day. Light southeast winds expected to become southerly
overnight.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
236 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE REGION HAS
DROPPED DOWN TO LESS THAN A MILE OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS...
PROMPTING ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS ON AREAS FROM GOODLAND WESTWARD. AREAS
TO THE EAST ARE SEEING SOME REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY BUT WILL BE
MONITORED TO SEE IF DOWNTREND PUSHES TOWARDS ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS FORECAST MOVE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT REACHING WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE LOW CONTINUES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WILL BE
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
LOWEST VISIBILITIES OF FOG WHICH FAVOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA.
CURRENTLY HAVE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE IN THIS AREA. IF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS RIGHT DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS
WILL DEVELOP. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT 18Z AND 00Z
MODEL DATA IN HOPES OF FINE TUNING AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR DENSE FOG
AND POSSIBLY ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A SMALL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ONCE
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS BECOME BETTER FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST ISSUANCE
WITH ALIGNING WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF FORECAST. AS A RESULT...STILL
LEANING ON THE ECMWF OUTPUT TO KEEP THE TRI STATE AREA DRY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY TO
THE UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY UNDER THE RIDGE.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT ON FRIDAY AND BEYOND. BECAUSE OF THE
CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF...DECIDED TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOWARDS THE DRY SIDE FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A PROMINENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM
THE WEST...SO EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. WITH ECMWF CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KTS...A BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER
COULD DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR FRIDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AND
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. THIS SET OF TAFS
WILL BE MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD DUE TO IFR CONDITIONS ALREADY
OCCURRING AT BOTH SITES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. DUE TO THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...EXPECT
THE FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF A BIT MORE SLOWLY THAN
NORMAL...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OR POSSIBLY AN HOUR OR SO LONGER.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001-013-027.
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
125 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE REGION HAS
DROPPED DOWN TO LESS THAN A MILE OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS...
PROMPTING ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS ON AREAS FROM GOODLAND WESTWARD. AREAS
TO THE EAST ARE SEEING SOME REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY BUT WILL BE
MONITORED TO SEE IF DOWNTREND PUSHES TOWARDS ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS FORECAST MOVE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT REACHING WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE LOW CONTINUES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WILL BE
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
LOWEST VISIBILITIES OF FOG WHICH FAVOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA.
CURRENTLY HAVE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE IN THIS AREA. IF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS RIGHT DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS
WILL DEVELOP. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT 18Z AND 00Z
MODEL DATA IN HOPES OF FINE TUNING AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR DENSE FOG
AND POSSIBLY ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. UNTIL THEN...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO
PERSIST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO SLIP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. HOWEVER...UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE DISPLACED FAR
TO THE NORTH RULING OUT MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT
REINFORCING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE EXCELLENT ON
FRIDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50KTS...SO A SEVERE THREAT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT JUST YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. THIS SET OF TAFS
WILL BE MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD DUE TO IFR CONDITIONS ALREADY
OCCURRING AT BOTH SITES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. DUE TO THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...EXPECT
THE FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF A BIT MORE SLOWLY THAN
NORMAL...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OR POSSIBLY AN HOUR OR SO LONGER.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001-013-027.
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS FORECAST MOVE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT REACHING WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE LOW CONTINUES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WILL BE
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
LOWEST VISIBILITIES OF FOG WHICH FAVOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA.
CURRENTLY HAVE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE IN THIS AREA. IF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS RIGHT DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS
WILL DEVELOP. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT 18Z AND 00Z
MODEL DATA IN HOPES OF FINE TUNING AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR DENSE FOG
AND POSSIBLY ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. UNTIL THEN...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO
PERSIST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO SLIP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. HOWEVER...UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE DISPLACED FAR
TO THE NORTH RULING OUT MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT
REINFORCING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE EXCELLENT ON
FRIDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50KTS...SO A SEVERE THREAT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT JUST YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. THIS SET OF TAFS
WILL BE MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD DUE TO IFR CONDITIONS ALREADY
OCCURRING AT BOTH SITES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. DUE TO THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...EXPECT
THE FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF A BIT MORE SLOWLY THAN
NORMAL...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OR POSSIBLY AN HOUR OR SO LONGER.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
127 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AREA OF MOST ROBUST SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KY THIS LATE MORNING HOUR. DID KEEP
NUMEROUS POPS NEARER THE LMK CWA BORDER...BUT BRING MORE IN THE
WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. GIVEN DOWN STREAM
RETURNS BEING LOWER THIS SEEMED THE BEST OVERALL APPROACH.
OVERALL CONSSHORT AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS...SO LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER THE HRRR WANTED TO
INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF SCATTERED AREA OF SHOWERS SE OF JACKSON.
RIGHT NOW NOT REALLY SEEING THIS BEING ALL THAT REALISTIC BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT. ALSO UPDATED THE WINDS PARTICULARLY IN
THE RIDGES AND BLUEGRASS AREAS. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO A DECENT
925MB JET COMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
SYM HAVING SOME DECENT GUSTS INTO THE 13 TO 16 KNOT RANGE THIS
MORNING. UPDATED TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS AS
WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SHOWERS ARE TURNING A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN IT LOOKED LIKE THEY
WOULD BE EARLIER. THUS...HAVE WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS
AREAWIDE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING WITH POCKETS OF RAIN CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BACK INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS STILL
AFFECTING AREAS JUST NORTH OF I-64 THIS MORNING...BUT THESE SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH BY DAYBREAK. THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS. THIS HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE AREA DRY OVER THE LAST 3 TO 6
HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING...WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...STRETCHING UP THE I-75
CORRIDOR. THUS...WILL PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. FARTHER NORTHEAST...NOT
MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS FORCING REMAINS WEAK.
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL KEEP
THINGS IN CHECK TODAY. THUS...WILL JUST GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED...EXCEPT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFT FARTHER NORTH. BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST...BUT AGAIN RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT SUNDAY...RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF COMPLETELY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL
TODAY...STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 ONCE AGAIN WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER. CLOUDS MAY THIN A BIT ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING A BETTER RECOVER
FOR TEMPERATURES...SO WILL GO WITH MID 70S FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A STRONG
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DURING THIS TIME...A COUPLE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
CONTINUING TO BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. THE MENTIONED TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND OFF
TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE PATTERN TAKES ON A
MORE AMPLIFIED LOOK WITH A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST AND BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH A STOUT CAP IN
PLACE...ANY INSTABILITY WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS CHANGES HOWEVER BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVES
INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND FORCING FROM THE
FRONT...INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE PUT SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST. THE FRONT
THAT PUSHES THROUGH STALLS ACROSS KY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
LEAVING A DECENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL PROVIDE A
CONTINUED AREA OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS...AN ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE FACT OF
SOME RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE AREA...THE SLIGHT
INCONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME PRECIP IN THE
EXTENDED. THUS HAVE STAYED WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION FOR POPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
OVERALL SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REMAINS THE STORY FOR THE UPCOMING
TAF PERIOD...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF SHRA AND VCSH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS HAS BEEN BROUGHT ON BY A UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE THAT HAS CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE TO THE NW OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. RIGHT NOW VIS SAT AND OBS ARE SHOWING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR OR LOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
ANY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE
DIVERGENT WITH THE OVERNIGHT CLOUDS...DID OPT TO INTRODUCE A HIGH
MVFR DECK OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID THINK THE CIGS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH AFTERNOON VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTIEST AT SYM
WHERE WE HAVE SEEN SOME 15 PLUS KNOT GUST...OTHER SITES SEEING
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THE AREAS THAT WILL HAVE THE HIGHER WINDS WILL
BE THE RIDGES AND THE BLUEGRASS...HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1123 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AREA OF MOST ROBUST SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KY THIS LATE MORNING HOUR. DID KEEP
NUMEROUS POPS NEARER THE LMK CWA BORDER...BUT BRING MORE IN THE
WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. GIVEN DOWN STREAM
RETURNS BEING LOWER THIS SEEMED THE BEST OVERALL APPROACH.
OVERALL CONSSHORT AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS...SO LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER THE HRRR WANTED TO
INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF SCATTERED AREA OF SHOWERS SE OF JACKSON.
RIGHT NOW NOT REALLY SEEING THIS BEING ALL THAT REALISTIC BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT. ALSO UPDATED THE WINDS PARTICULARLY IN
THE RIDGES AND BLUEGRASS AREAS. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO A DECENT
925MB JET COMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
SYM HAVING SOME DECENT GUSTS INTO THE 13 TO 16 KNOT RANGE THIS
MORNING. UPDATED TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS AS
WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SHOWERS ARE TURNING A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN IT LOOKED LIKE THEY
WOULD BE EARLIER. THUS...HAVE WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS
AREAWIDE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING WITH POCKETS OF RAIN CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BACK INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS STILL
AFFECTING AREAS JUST NORTH OF I-64 THIS MORNING...BUT THESE SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH BY DAYBREAK. THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS. THIS HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE AREA DRY OVER THE LAST 3 TO 6
HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING...WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...STRETCHING UP THE I-75
CORRIDOR. THUS...WILL PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. FARTHER NORTHEAST...NOT
MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS FORCING REMAINS WEAK.
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL KEEP
THINGS IN CHECK TODAY. THUS...WILL JUST GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED...EXCEPT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFT FARTHER NORTH. BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST...BUT AGAIN RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT SUNDAY...RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF COMPLETELY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL
TODAY...STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 ONCE AGAIN WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER. CLOUDS MAY THIN A BIT ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING A BETTER RECOVER
FOR TEMPERATURES...SO WILL GO WITH MID 70S FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A STRONG
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DURING THIS TIME...A COUPLE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
CONTINUING TO BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. THE MENTIONED TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND OFF
TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE PATTERN TAKES ON A
MORE AMPLIFIED LOOK WITH A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST AND BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANMOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH A STOUT CAP IN
PLACE...ANY INSTABILITY WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS CHANGES HOWEVER BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVES
INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND FORCING FROM THE
FRONT...INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE PUT SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST. THE FRONT
THAT PUSHES THROUGH STALLS ACROSS KY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
LEAVING A DECENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL PROVIDE A
CONTINUED AREA OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS...AN ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE FACT OF
SOME RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE AREA...THE SLIGHT
INCONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME PRECIP IN THE
EXTENDED. THUS HAVE STAYED WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION FOR POPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
A MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING AS RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS SHOULD INCREASE
TO VFR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN IF WE WILL STAY AT VFR
TONIGHT...OR GO BACK DOWN AGAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE
PLACE AND ITS CERTAINLY A DIFFICULT FORECAST EVEN 12 TO 18 HOURS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL JUST GO VFR AND SEE WHAT THE 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEFORE INTRODUCING MORE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
159 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
A FEW SHOWERS HANGING ON ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
COUNTIES OF KENTUCKY. REST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY AS DOWNSLOPING
FLOW HAS TAKEN OVER ONCE AGAIN. THE SHOWERS IN THE NORTH SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
CREEP INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE
DOWNSLOPING MAY BE A BIT WEAKER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED.
THUS...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LIKELY KEEP AN ISOLATED POP IN THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING IT OVER THE PEAKS OF
THE APPALACHIANS. UPDATE HAS BEEN SAVED AND SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1214 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO EXIT NORTHWARD WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
SPREADING BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL GO AHEAD AND BACK DOWN
ON POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF
FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WEATHER MUCH QUIETER THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME WEAK FORCING MAY SPREAD BACK
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE BORDER TOWARDS 12Z...SO WILL BRING BACK
SOME BETTER POPS AROUND THIS TIME...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT. AN UPDATED ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT HAS BEEN CREATED AND SENT OUT ALREADY WITH THE
UPDATES MENTIONED ABOVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MADE A NUMBER OF UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE
WEATHER OFFICE HAVE TAPERED OFF QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS...MAKING THE PREVIOUS PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TOO
HIGH WHEN COMPARED TO REALITY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA...GENERAL ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAYNE COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST
CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. BY 2 OR 3Z IT
APPEARS THAT...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST RUN
OF THE HRRR MODEL...THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DUE MAINLY TO A LACK OF RENEWED
FORCING ALOFT COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
DOES SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS EASTERN
TENNESSEE AND THE CAROLINAS. THESE SHOWERS ARE WHAT WE EXPECT TO
MOVE INTO OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE POPS...QPF...POP12...AND WEATHER TYPE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
THROUGH 11Z SATURDAY...REFLECTING THE CHANGES MENTIONED ABOVE. A
NEW SET OF ZONES WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SPREADING NORTH INTO KENTUCKY
BENEATH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. THIS IS SUPPORTING WAVES OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS WORKING EAST TO WEST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
SO FAR...THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN HAS BEEN HELD UP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA DUE TO INITIAL DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPING ON EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS COMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CAPPED THIS DAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY. THE INCREASING
SHOWERS HAVE HELPED TO SATURATE MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA WHILE MID AND LOW 50S ARE NOTED
TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL
DEPICT A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AMID A
REGION OF HIGH HEIGHTS...INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL THEN DRIFT NORTH INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHILE
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND ITS CENTER. THIS LOW WILL
COMMENCE FILLING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
LESSENING ITS IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE JKL CWA. GIVEN
THE SIMILARITIES AMONG THE MODELS HAVE AGAIN FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION ONES LIKE THE RAP13 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS...
ALONG WITH THE NAM12 FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WAVES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
PUSHING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY DOWNSLOPING...BUT EVEN SO THERE WILL BE
PLACES THAT MAKE OUT A BIT BETTER WITH UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE...LIKE PARTS OF HARLAN COUNTY. OTHERWISE...MOST
PLACES WILL FALL IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE SFC LOW STARTS TO FALL APART AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT WANES. THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH...BUT QPF WILL
LIKELY BE ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE...RUNNING AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS FOR MOST PLACES. GIVEN THE SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
EXPECT FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES AND A NARROW DIURNAL RANGE
FOR THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND.
USED THE SHORTBLEND INITIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ONCE
AGAIN...INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE
SUPERBLEND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE SUNDAY MORNING. DID MAKE SOME
POINT BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MAV AND
DRIER MET MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT RETROGRADES EAST THIS WEEKEND WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY. AFTER THIS WEAK HEIGHT
RISES OCCURS AHEAD OF MID WEEK TROUGHING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN RELATION TO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL PATTERN. THE ECMWF WANTS TO ESTABLISH A DEEPER
TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FLATTER WITH THE PATTERN. THIS
OF COURSE WILL INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL COMPLICATIONS TO THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER WOULD SEEM LIKE SURFACE FEATURES WILL LACKING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THEREFORE THE WEAKER WAVES WILL BE THE BEST SUPPORT.
RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND JUST GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
LOOK TO BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ENERVATED FRONT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...HOWEVER DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE
TROUGHING TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEK COULD BRING TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
EAST/SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW CIGS FROM AFFECTING MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE TURNING SOUTH
ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS FLOW...WE MAY SEE CONDITIONS STAY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT WHERE A FEW SHOWERS CAN GET GOING.
BEST CHANCES FOR THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...OR FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. OVERALL...IMPACTS TO AVIATION
SHOULD NOT BE THAT GREAT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1214 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO EXIT NORTHWARD WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
SPREADING BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL GO AHEAD AND BACK DOWN
ON POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF
FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WEATHER MUCH QUIETER THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME WEAK FORCING MAY SPREAD BACK
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE BORDER TOWARDS 12Z...SO WILL BRING BACK
SOME BETTER POPS AROUND THIS TIME...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT. AN UPDATED ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT HAS BEEN CREATED AND SENT OUT ALREADY WITH THE
UPDATES MENTIONED ABOVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MADE A NUMBER OF UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE
WEATHER OFFICE HAVE TAPERED OFF QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS...MAKING THE PREVIOUS PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TOO
HIGH WHEN COMPARED TO REALITY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA...GENERAL ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAYNE COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST
CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. BY 2 OR 3Z IT
APPEARS THAT...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST RUN
OF THE HRRR MODEL...THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DUE MAINLY TO A LACK OF RENEWED
FORCING ALOFT COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
DOES SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS EASTERN
TENNESSEE AND THE CAROLINAS. THESE SHOWERS ARE WHAT WE EXPECT TO
MOVE INTO OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE POPS...QPF...POP12...AND WEATHER TYPE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
THROUGH 11Z SATURDAY...REFLECTING THE CHANGES MENTIONED ABOVE. A
NEW SET OF ZONES WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SPREADING NORTH INTO KENTUCKY
BENEATH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. THIS IS SUPPORTING WAVES OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS WORKING EAST TO WEST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
SO FAR...THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN HAS BEEN HELD UP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA DUE TO INITIAL DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPING ON EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS COMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CAPPED THIS DAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY. THE INCREASING
SHOWERS HAVE HELPED TO SATURATE MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA WHILE MID AND LOW 50S ARE NOTED
TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL
DEPICT A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AMID A
REGION OF HIGH HEIGHTS...INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL THEN DRIFT NORTH INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHILE
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND ITS CENTER. THIS LOW WILL
COMMENCE FILLING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
LESSENING ITS IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE JKL CWA. GIVEN
THE SIMILARITIES AMONG THE MODELS HAVE AGAIN FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION ONES LIKE THE RAP13 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS...
ALONG WITH THE NAM12 FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WAVES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
PUSHING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY DOWNSLOPING...BUT EVEN SO THERE WILL BE
PLACES THAT MAKE OUT A BIT BETTER WITH UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE...LIKE PARTS OF HARLAN COUNTY. OTHERWISE...MOST
PLACES WILL FALL IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE SFC LOW STARTS TO FALL APART AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT WANES. THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH...BUT QPF WILL
LIKELY BE ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE...RUNNING AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS FOR MOST PLACES. GIVEN THE SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
EXPECT FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES AND A NARROW DIURNAL RANGE
FOR THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND.
USED THE SHORTBLEND INITIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ONCE
AGAIN...INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE
SUPERBLEND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE SUNDAY MORNING. DID MAKE SOME
POINT BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MAV AND
DRIER MET MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT RETROGRADES EAST THIS WEEKEND WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY. AFTER THIS WEAK HEIGHT
RISES OCCURS AHEAD OF MID WEEK TROUGHING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN RELATION TO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL PATTERN. THE ECMWF WANTS TO ESTABLISH A DEEPER
TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FLATTER WITH THE PATTERN. THIS
OF COURSE WILL INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL COMPLICATIONS TO THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER WOULD SEEM LIKE SURFACE FEATURES WILL LACKING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THEREFORE THE WEAKER WAVES WILL BE THE BEST SUPPORT.
RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND JUST GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
LOOK TO BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ENERVATED FRONT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...HOWEVER DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE
TROUGHING TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEK COULD BRING TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AS AN A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SPINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS AN AREA ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAYNE COUNTY TO WEST CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE EVENING...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA. THE TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE FLUCTUATING CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND IN
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN...AS A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND INTO THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
939 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY ALL NEAR
COASTLINE AND SWD. ASIDE FROM THAT...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON
POPS...INCLUDING ADDING 20 PERCENT NORTH OF I-30...EVEN THOUGH
RAIN SO LGT ACROSS NORTHERN STRETCHES OF AREA...MAY OR MAY NOT
EXCEED TRACE AMOUNTS./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/
AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE ELEVATED CLOUD COVER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR AND N OF
A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE SE TX COAST. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHRA WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA OFFSHORE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SFC CIRCULATION
ABOUT 100NM S OF SABINE PASS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD
NNW MAINLY INTO DEEP E TX/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF WCNTRL LA
THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE E TX TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
HAVE TEMPOED MENTION OF SHRA FOR THIS AREA FROM MID-EVENING
THROUGH A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR LFK ONLY...WITH
MENTION OF VCSH FOR TYR/GGG LATE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED -SHRA CAN/T
BE RULED OUT OVER NW LA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ELEVATED
CIGS AND VERY LIGHT NATURE OF THE RAIN...HAVE NOT MENTIONED VCSH
FOR SHV ATTM. DRY SLOTTING ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
ECNTRL LA SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS
AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCT SHRA POSSIBLE FARTHER W
OVER WRN LA/E TX/SW AR NEAR THE ATTENDENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS. COULD
ALSO SEE IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOP/SPREAD W INTO SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL
LA BY/AFTER 12Z MONDAY...AS WELL AS NEAR LFK...CLOSER TO THE RAIN
AREA AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SATURATE. SHOULD SEE A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS BY MIDDAY MONDAY WHERE THE LOW CIGS DO
FORM. LIGHT E/LT AND VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME ENE 5-8KTS
AFTER 15Z. /15/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AIR TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LAST HOUR WITH SOME
VARIABLE WINDS...BUT MOSTLY NE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. OUR 88D RADAR IS
SHOWING A GOOD BOUNDARY LOW LEVEL FORCING OR COOL POOL OF 70S IF
YOUR WILL TO OUR SOUTH...MIXING WARMER AS IT MOVES NW. A FEW
SHOWERS IN OUR AREA ARE OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS AND SOME BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER TOLEDO BEND MOVING NW IN SAM RAYBURN.
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL
BEND...ELONGATING OVER THE COAST. VERY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
PILING INTO THE SABINE PASS. WE WILL KEEP ON AN EYE ON THIS
PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS A GREAT DEAL MORE PANCAKING CUMULUS ALONG
I-30 NOW UNDER THE WARM NOSE...WHILE MULTI DECKS ARE PILING INTO
THE I-20 CORRIDOR ERODING THE CAP. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
OUR NEXT SOUNDING. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER SW OKLAHOMA YESTERDAY
IS NOW PRETTY MUCH THE NEW BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST GULF AS
UNFOLDING PATTERN REMAINS AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS CLOSE OFF THE
LOW TONIGHT WITH REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AROUND 5780M OR SO FOR THE
500 MB LEVEL. SOME NOCTURNAL COVERAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
CORE WHICH COULD BRUSH OUR SOUTHERN TIER WITH CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING THE LOWER LEVELS.
AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW KEEPS WRAPPING UP TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PILE IN...AND ERODED THE CAP. FORCING IS
FAIR TO DECENT WITH A DEEPENING SOUTHEAST FLOW BOUND TO BE
PRODUCTIVE SOMEWHERE...EVEN UNDER THE INVERSION IF IT CAN BE
LIFTED. SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT WITH HRRR MODEL
SPOTTY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH SOME ISOLATED EVEN ALONG I-30.
ALL THE MODELS AND WPC QPF LOOK ENCOURAGING.
THE OVER RAIN CHANCE LOOKS FAIR TO AWESOME FOR A LUCKY FEW AT
LEAST. HOPEFULLY...AS THE LOW WORKS BACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
AREA WE CAN MAKE MOST OF THAT NOCTURNAL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. WE
HAVE SLIGHT TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20 FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW WRAPS UP. THE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS THE DRY SLOT AND ALL THE DRY AIR OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WHICH IS SCOURING OUT THE GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE WATER VAPOR WILL BE INDICATIVE AS
THE SURFACE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON TO NE WINDS.
OUR 88D VAD IS SHOWING ENE TO 7KFT AND THEN ALL SOUTHEAST
ALOFT...HOWEVER MAINTAINING RIGHT AT THAT CAP THIS AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT OF AN OVERRUNNING PRECIP TYPE MAY UNFOLD IF THE CAP
ERODES WITH ONLY A SHALLOW NE SFC FLOW LEFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THUS THE LUCKY FEW AT LEAST. OUR HOPE IS TO JUST GO AHEAD BLOW
THE DRIEST MONTH RECORD AND SEE THE WPC QPF AND MORE AS THE WARM
AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE FOUR STATE AREA ALL TO SOON BY
MIDWEEK. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 87 70 87 / 30 50 30 50
MLU 70 85 69 86 / 40 60 30 50
DEQ 65 86 67 86 / 20 20 20 40
TXK 67 85 68 85 / 20 40 30 40
ELD 66 84 66 84 / 30 50 30 50
TYR 69 87 69 87 / 20 40 20 40
GGG 68 86 69 88 / 20 40 30 40
LFK 67 85 69 87 / 30 50 30 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
703 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE ELEVATED CLOUD COVER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH THIS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR AND N OF
A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE SE TX COAST. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHRA WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA OFFSHORE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SFC CIRCULATION
ABOUT 100NM S OF SABINE PASS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD
NNW MAINLY INTO DEEP E TX/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF WCNTRL LA
THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE E TX TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
HAVE TEMPOED MENTION OF SHRA FOR THIS AREA FROM MID-EVENING
THROUGH A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR LFK ONLY...WITH
MENTION OF VCSH FOR TYR/GGG LATE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED -SHRA CAN/T
BE RULED OUT OVER NW LA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ELEVATED
CIGS AND VERY LIGHT NATURE OF THE RAIN...HAVE NOT MENTIONED VCSH
FOR SHV ATTM. DRY SLOTTING ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER
ECNTRL LA SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS
AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCT SHRA POSSIBLE FARTHER W
OVER WRN LA/E TX/SW AR NEAR THE ATTENDENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS. COULD
ALSO SEE IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOP/SPREAD W INTO SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL
LA BY/AFTER 12Z MONDAY...AS WELL AS NEAR LFK...CLOSER TO THE RAIN
AREA AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SATURATE. SHOULD SEE A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS BY MIDDAY MONDAY WHERE THE LOW CIGS DO
FORM. LIGHT E/LT AND VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME ENE 5-8KTS
AFTER 15Z. /15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
AIR TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LAST HOUR WITH SOME
VARIABLE WINDS...BUT MOSTLY NE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. OUR 88D RADAR IS
SHOWING A GOOD BOUNDARY LOW LEVEL FORCING OR COOL POOL OF 70S IF
YOUR WILL TO OUR SOUTH...MIXING WARMER AS IT MOVES NW. A FEW
SHOWERS IN OUR AREA ARE OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS AND SOME BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER TOLEDO BEND MOVING NW IN SAM RAYBURN.
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL
BEND...ELONGATING OVER THE COAST. VERY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
PILING INTO THE SABINE PASS. WE WILL KEEP ON AN EYE ON THIS
PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS A GREAT DEAL MORE PANCAKING CUMULUS ALONG
I-30 NOW UNDER THE WARM NOSE...WHILE MULTI DECKS ARE PILING INTO
THE I-20 CORRIDOR ERODING THE CAP. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
OUR NEXT SOUNDING. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER SW OKLAHOMA YESTERDAY
IS NOW PRETTY MUCH THE NEW BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST GULF AS
UNFOLDING PATTERN REMAINS AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS CLOSE OFF THE
LOW TONIGHT WITH REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AROUND 5780M OR SO FOR THE
500 MB LEVEL. SOME NOCTURNAL COVERAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
CORE WHICH COULD BRUSH OUR SOUTHERN TIER WITH CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING THE LOWER LEVELS.
AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW KEEPS WRAPPING UP TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PILE IN...AND ERODED THE CAP. FORCING IS
FAIR TO DECENT WITH A DEEPENING SOUTHEAST FLOW BOUND TO BE
PRODUCTIVE SOMEWHERE...EVEN UNDER THE INVERSION IF IT CAN BE
LIFTED. SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT WITH HRRR MODEL
SPOTTY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH SOME ISOLATED EVEN ALONG I-30.
ALL THE MODELS AND WPC QPF LOOK ENCOURAGING.
THE OVER RAIN CHANCE LOOKS FAIR TO AWESOME FOR A LUCKY FEW AT
LEAST. HOPEFULLY...AS THE LOW WORKS BACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
AREA WE CAN MAKE MOST OF THAT NOCTURNAL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. WE
HAVE SLIGHT TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20 FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW WRAPS UP. THE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS THE DRY SLOT AND ALL THE DRY AIR OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WHICH IS SCOURING OUT THE GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE WATER VAPOR WILL BE INDICATIVE AS
THE SURFACE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON TO NE WINDS.
OUR 88D VAD IS SHOWING ENE TO 7KFT AND THEN ALL SOUTHEAST
ALOFT...HOWEVER MAINTAINING RIGHT AT THAT CAP THIS AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT OF AN OVERRUNNING PRECIP TYPE MAY UNFOLD IF THE CAP
ERODES WITH ONLY A SHALLOW NE SFC FLOW LEFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THUS THE LUCKY FEW AT LEAST. OUR HOPE IS TO JUST GO AHEAD BLOW
THE DRIEST MONTH RECORD AND SEE THE WPC QPF AND MORE AS THE WARM
AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE FOUR STATE AREA ALL TO SOON BY
MIDWEEK. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 87 70 87 / 30 50 30 50
MLU 70 85 69 86 / 30 60 30 50
DEQ 65 86 67 86 / 10 20 20 40
TXK 67 85 68 85 / 20 40 30 40
ELD 66 84 66 84 / 30 50 30 50
TYR 69 87 69 87 / 20 40 20 40
GGG 68 86 69 88 / 20 40 30 40
LFK 67 85 69 87 / 40 50 30 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
830 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
WHILE AND EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...POSSIBLY IMPACTING
THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE MAY BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS TO THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS IS BECAUSE DAYTIME MIXING WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD STILL BE TO THE SOUTH.
AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
AS WELL AS LAMP MODEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALL SHOW CLOUDS LOWERING
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RADAR OBS AND HRRR SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
INCLUDED SCT SHOWERS FOR E WV W MD AND W CENTRAL VA...ISOLATED
SHOWERS EAST TO CENTRAL MD AND NOVA...AND KEPT IT DRY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT FOR THE EAST.
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AROUND THE
DEPARTING HIGH. POPUP SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE SOME
MORE BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THEN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. MONDAY WILL
TURN OUT WARMER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S NEAR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN PLENTY OF MOISTURE
MONDAY NIGHT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL DUE TO THE
DEEP MOISTURE AND A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD.
TUESDAY...UPR LOW/TROUGH EJECTS NE FROM TX. MEANWHILE AN UPR TROUGH
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND THE SFC TROUGH AMPLIFIES
UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE SFC HIGH WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WITH SFC WINDS SHIFTING FROM NELY TO
SELY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THINKING A DIURNAL TREND IN
POPS WITH CHANCES IN THE MORNING AND LIKELIES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ELEVATED SKINNY INSTABILITY WARRANTS LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDER LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...12Z GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK COASTAL FLOW OVER
THE DELMARVA BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD SHIFT WINDS TO NWLY
AND INCREASE ELEVATED LIFT. LOWERED POPS TO CHC THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT ONGOING RAIN (POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES) MAY LAST ALL
NIGHT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS HAD DIFFICULTY OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SO CONFIDENCE IN TUESDAY NIGHT IS STILL LOWER THAN NORMAL.
THAT SAID...WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH...WE HAVE MENTIONED A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND WPC HAS
MUCH OF OUR AREA IN THEIR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION FOR TUE.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP
CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF RAIN OVER THE AREA. IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A COMPLETE WASH OUT BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT
LEAST ONE OR TWO PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY SHIFTED WESTWARD AND
DEEPER WITH AN UPPER-TROUGH/EVENTUAL CUTOFF LOW THAT APPROACHES THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THANKS IN
LARGE PART TO A PERSISTENT BLOCKING HIGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
TRENDED SKY COVER AND POPS UP A BIT BUT DID NOT GO ABOVE CHANCE
GIVEN THERE IS STILL SPREAD ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE
WESTWARD SHIFT WAS ONLY JUST NOTED AFTER THE LAST MODEL CYCLE OR
TWO. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST HOWEVER FOR A PERIOD OF SOAKING...WIND-
DRIVEN RAIN.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM COOL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA PERSISTS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIFR TO IFR LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
A BIT MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS TUESDAY AS NELY FLOW VEERS SELY. LIKELY RAIN
WITH MVFR VSBY EXPECTED IN MODERATE INTENSITY. LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDER DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
DELMARVA. RAIN AND REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUES INTO THE
NIGHT...POSSIBLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SUB-VFR PSBL IN LOW CIGS/PDS OF -RA WED-THU. NLY FLOW 10-15 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BUT IT WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE S BAY AND LOWER POTOMAC
UNTIL MIDNIGHT WHERE GUSTS HAVE BEEN AROUND 20 KT. THE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...SO HAVE WINDS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO SCA
CRITERIA FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY...THOUGH GUSTS LOOK TO BE 15 KT MAX.
WIND SHIFTS NORTHERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES. GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT IN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SCA LIKELY FOR MOST
WATERS.
PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN A GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
SOUTH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE CONTINUING TO RUN A FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THE EAST WINDS. EXPECT THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDES TO
BE SIMILAR WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AROUND HIGH TIDE TIMES.
STRAITS POINT IN ST MARYS COUNTY IS THE ONE GAUGE THAT WILL BE
FLIRTING WITH MODERATE FLOODING THAT WOULD NECESSITATE A
WARNING...INSTEAD OF THE ADVISORY THAT COVERS MOST OF OUR TIDAL
SHORES. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...SINCE LOW TIDE AT STRAITS CAME IN A
LITTLE LOWER THERE THAN THE LAST...EXPECT HIGH TIDE TO BE JUST
UNDER THE MODERATE THRESHOLD.
WINDS EASE AND TURN NLY ON THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WATER
LEVEL ANOMALIES DECREASING.
THE PATTERN WITH A BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH MAY RESULT IN PERIODIC
COASTAL FLOODING DURING MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
ULTIMATELY IT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE WIND TAKES ON A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT (DRIVING WATER OUT OF THE BAY WITH LESS RISK
FOR FLOODING) OR EASTERLY COMPONENT (KEEPING WATER PILED UP ALONG
THE SHORE AND INCREASING THE RISK OF FLOODING).
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ011-013-
014-017-018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ053-054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-538-
542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ533-534-
537-543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL/CAS
SHORT TERM...BAJ/BJL/CAS
LONG TERM...BAJ/BJL/DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/CAS/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/CAS/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CAS/BJL/BAJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1159 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID/UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SW TO SE CANADA WHILE A TROF IS
PROGRESSING THRU WRN CANADA. AT THE SFC...THE TROF IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL SD ACROSS FAR NW MN TO HUDSON BAY.
SW FLOW BTWN THE COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST HAS LED TO ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE SEPT DAY
TODAY. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...AROUND 80F. FOG/STRATUS THAT WAS OVER CNTRL UPPER MI
EARLY THIS MORNING BURNED OFF BY LATE MORNING. STRATOCU THAT WAS
OVER IL/SE WI/LAKE MI EARLY TODAY HAS SPREAD N. WHILE STILL S OF
KMNM...THE AREA OF MOISTURE HAS LED TO MORE CLOUD COVER FROM AROUND
KISQ/KERY EASTWARD. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.
DURING THE SHORT TERM...FOCUS WILL BE ON CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING
FOR VIEWING LUNAR ECLIPSE AND THEN PCPN POTENTIAL AS WRN CANADA TROF
CONTINUES EASTWARD...PUSHING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MON.
WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING...MODELS SHOW WINDS IN THE APPROACHING
CLOUD BEARING LAYER (ROUGHLY 875-850MB) VEERING SOME TONIGHT.
THUS...THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF THE STRATOCU APPROACHING FROM S
SHOULD TEND TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH TIME. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF AN IRON MTN TO
MUNISING LINE WILL HAVE THE MOST CLOUD COVER...POTENTIALLY OBSCURING
MUCH OF THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS EVENING AT A FEW LOCATIONS. NAM IN
PARTICULAR IS AGGRESSIVE IN MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS BLO STRATOCU
LAYER FARTHER TO THE W...BUT DON`T THINK THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING EVEN IF IT IS CORRECT WITH THE
MOISTURE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE ONLY VERY
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN TIMING FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...
REACHING THE W EARLY MON MORNING AND EXITING THE SE LATE AFTN.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SCT/CHC POPS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W. BIGGER
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER THE UPPER JET CONFIGURATION WITH
RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN UNDERNEATH
WILL BE SUFFICENT TO HELP DEVELOP A HEAVIER/MORE SOLID BAND OF SHRA
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA MON. THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF IMPROVED FORCING LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SCNTRL AND ERN
FCST AREA MON AFTN. WITH THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE LATEST RAP RUN
ENDING AT 12Z MON APPEARING TO SUPPORT THAT IDEA AS IT HAS STRONGER
FORCING DEVELOPING TO THE W AT THE END OF THE MODEL RUN...WILL RAISE
POPS FOR MON...ESPECIALLY SCNTRL AND E WHERE LIKELY/NMRS WILL BE
UTILIZED LATE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
INCLUDE MENTION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS THAT
MAY GRAZE FAR SERN UPPER MI IN THE FEW FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z TUE.
THESE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE W AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD ON TUE. 18Z 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW 0C...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND E WILL MAKE THAT FEEL A BIT CHILLIER. WILL INCREASE
CLOUD COVER OVER THE E NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
SHOULD RESULT...BUT WILL ALSO SHOW CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH AIR CONTINUES TO INTRUDE.
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER TUE NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 0C.
PWATS DROP TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER AN ALREADY COOL DAY WILL MAKE FOR VERY
COLD LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S...COLDEST INTERIOR OF
COURSE. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS
VALUES ARE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH LOOKS GOOD. FROST
APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EVEN SOME SHORELINE AREAS.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE E ON WED...AS WILL THE 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR 1-2 DEGREE WARMER MAX TEMPS THAN ON
TUE...HIGHS AROUND 60.
CONTINUED TO NOTE WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SAW IN MODEL
TRENDS...DRYER WEATHER FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. CAN NOT BE TOO
CONFIDENT...THOUGH...GIVEN VERY POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE
PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL TREND THE FORECAST DRYER. TEMPS LOOK
TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR THE LAST HALF. MIN TEMPS WILL BE TRICKIER
GIVEN THE GREATER RELIANCE ON CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WED NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST WITH LOWS
POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND AND WARMER NEAR THE SHORE.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST WED NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO GET CLOSER
BEFORE ADDING THAT TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND LATE MON MORNING
AT KSAW ALONG/AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL ONLY
LAST A FEW HOURS AT EACH TERMINAL WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM THE
WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS NW WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. LLWS IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z MON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...S TO SW WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL GUST TO AROUND 25KT TONIGHT...BUT UP TO 30KT AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
TONIGHT AND MON...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE W TO NW WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 20KT. AN UPTICK IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT/TUE
TO 20-30KT...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR FLOWING OVER THE
LAKE AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO
UNDER 15KT W TO E TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE UPPER
LAKES. THE HIGH PRES WILL THEN DRIFT TO THE ENE WED THRU FRI...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS A RESULT...WHILE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME...SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY 20KT OR LESS
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1011 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
LOW CLOUDS (UNFORTUNATELY) CONTINUE TO HANG OVER ALMOST ALL OF OUR
CWA LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR WRN SECTIONS OF
CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES RIGHT ALONG THE NW EDGE OF THIS
LOW CLOUD DECK. BAD TIMING TO HAVE A CLOUDY NIGHT GIVEN THE RARE
SUPERMOON LUNAR ECLIPSE HAPPENING AS I WRITE. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALL NIGHT. A FEW REGION OBS HAVE ACTUALLY
REPORTED SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. BOTH THE LATEST RAP13
AND HRRR SUPPORT THIS NOTION. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LOW TEMPS COOLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
...SORRY FOR THE CLOUDS LUNAR ECLIPSE VIEWERS...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE HOPE ON THE HORIZON
AS SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
UPSTREAM. SO ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOUGH TO SEE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE...A
FEW OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
EVENING...DESPITE THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THERE ARE QUESTIONS
OVERNIGHT ABOUT THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
DIMINISH (1000-500 MB RH FALLS FROM BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT TO
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT)...BUT ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AREAS OF STRATUS FORMATION. MILDER WITH SOUTH WINDS KEEPING
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
...HEADLINES..
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NON-SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FROST POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MAIN WESTERLIES DISPLACED WELL NORTH
ACROSS CANADA...WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN CONTINENTAL U.S. NORTHERN PORTION OF A
SPLITTING TROUGH CROSSING WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY LEFT BEHIND AROUND 140W. MEANWHILE...DISTURBANCES CAUGHT IN
WEAK FLOW INCLUDE ONE OVER TEXAS/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...A
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF BERMUDA NEAR 60W...AND A WEAKENING
FEATURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...1034MB HIGH
STRETCHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA RIDGING WEST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY...WITH 60S DEW POINTS/BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
RATIOS >10G/KG CREEPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND
INTO ILLINOIS/INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN WYOMING.
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST SHORT TERM FORECAST IMPACT ON THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...AS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
WAVE WILL CLIP MICHIGAN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING OUT BY MIDWEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BY THURSDAY. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION IN
ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS WITH COLD
FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...CHILLY TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING?
MONDAY...COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S. SOME
INDICATIONS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY
IN THE NAM-WRF WHICH IS (AS USUAL) BULLISH ON PULLING HIGHER DEW
POINTS INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THINK WHAT MAY OCCUR IS A MOSTLY POST-
FRONTAL RAIN BAND MOVING INTO EASTERN UPPER DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...WHILE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE THAT FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (MBL/FKS/TVC) MAY STAY DRY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ONE LAST WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. RAIN BAND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT...AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET
FORCING. RAIN SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF
0.25-0.50 INCH EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...WILL BE FIRMLY IN POST-COLD FRONT AIR MASS TUESDAY
MORNING...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING FOR UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL
SPEED. BUT SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT BEYOND THAT AS COOLER/DRIER AIR
SPILL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AND MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S EXPECTED WITH A NORTHWEST
BREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A FLATTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. POSSIBILITY OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A PRETTY GOOD
FROST ACROSS INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
WEDNESDAY...SO ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW END OF SEPTEMBER NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON TAP ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. RECENT TRENDS HAVE
SLOWED NEXT WEEKEND`S DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
BEFORE SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS
POINT...THERE`S FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE DETAILS WILL PLAY
OUT FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AS INTERACTIONS...FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...REMAIN UNCLEAR.
IT`S SAFE TO SAY THE AREA WILL RETURN TO TEMPERATURES MUCH MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
OCTOBER. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FROST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
TYPICAL COOLER/INTERIOR SPOTS IN NORTHERN LOWER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF
SITES THRU MONDAY EVENING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. LLWS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE S/SW AOB 10 KTS THRU
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLOATING AROUND THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH
STRENGTHENING SW WINDS AHEAD OF IT FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WILL BRING SOME LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAINING POSTED. THE FRONT ARRIVES BY MONDAY
EVENING...BRINGING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN THAT MAY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ341-342-
344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...SULLIVAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
730 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID/UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SW TO SE CANADA WHILE A TROF IS
PROGRESSING THRU WRN CANADA. AT THE SFC...THE TROF IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL SD ACROSS FAR NW MN TO HUDSON BAY.
SW FLOW BTWN THE COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST HAS LED TO ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE SEPT DAY
TODAY. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...AROUND 80F. FOG/STRATUS THAT WAS OVER CNTRL UPPER MI
EARLY THIS MORNING BURNED OFF BY LATE MORNING. STRATOCU THAT WAS
OVER IL/SE WI/LAKE MI EARLY TODAY HAS SPREAD N. WHILE STILL S OF
KMNM...THE AREA OF MOISTURE HAS LED TO MORE CLOUD COVER FROM AROUND
KISQ/KERY EASTWARD. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.
DURING THE SHORT TERM...FOCUS WILL BE ON CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING
FOR VIEWING LUNAR ECLIPSE AND THEN PCPN POTENTIAL AS WRN CANADA TROF
CONTINUES EASTWARD...PUSHING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MON.
WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING...MODELS SHOW WINDS IN THE APPROACHING
CLOUD BEARING LAYER (ROUGHLY 875-850MB) VEERING SOME TONIGHT.
THUS...THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF THE STRATOCU APPROACHING FROM S
SHOULD TEND TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH TIME. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF AN IRON MTN TO
MUNISING LINE WILL HAVE THE MOST CLOUD COVER...POTENTIALLY OBSCURING
MUCH OF THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS EVENING AT A FEW LOCATIONS. NAM IN
PARTICULAR IS AGGRESSIVE IN MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS BLO STRATOCU
LAYER FARTHER TO THE W...BUT DON`T THINK THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING EVEN IF IT IS CORRECT WITH THE
MOISTURE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE ONLY VERY
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN TIMING FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...
REACHING THE W EARLY MON MORNING AND EXITING THE SE LATE AFTN.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SCT/CHC POPS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W. BIGGER
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER THE UPPER JET CONFIGURATION WITH
RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN UNDERNEATH
WILL BE SUFFICENT TO HELP DEVELOP A HEAVIER/MORE SOLID BAND OF SHRA
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA MON. THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF IMPROVED FORCING LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SCNTRL AND ERN
FCST AREA MON AFTN. WITH THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE LATEST RAP RUN
ENDING AT 12Z MON APPEARING TO SUPPORT THAT IDEA AS IT HAS STRONGER
FORCING DEVELOPING TO THE W AT THE END OF THE MODEL RUN...WILL RAISE
POPS FOR MON...ESPECIALLY SCNTRL AND E WHERE LIKELY/NMRS WILL BE
UTILIZED LATE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
INCLUDE MENTION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS THAT
MAY GRAZE FAR SERN UPPER MI IN THE FEW FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z TUE.
THESE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE W AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD ON TUE. 18Z 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW 0C...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND E WILL MAKE THAT FEEL A BIT CHILLIER. WILL INCREASE
CLOUD COVER OVER THE E NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
SHOULD RESULT...BUT WILL ALSO SHOW CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH AIR CONTINUES TO INTRUDE.
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER TUE NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 0C.
PWATS DROP TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER AN ALREADY COOL DAY WILL MAKE FOR VERY
COLD LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S...COLDEST INTERIOR OF
COURSE. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS
VALUES ARE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH LOOKS GOOD. FROST
APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EVEN SOME SHORELINE AREAS.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE E ON WED...AS WILL THE 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR 1-2 DEGREE WARMER MAX TEMPS THAN ON
TUE...HIGHS AROUND 60.
CONTINUED TO NOTE WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SAW IN MODEL
TRENDS...DRYER WEATHER FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. CAN NOT BE TOO
CONFIDENT...THOUGH...GIVEN VERY POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE
PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL TREND THE FORECAST DRYER. TEMPS LOOK
TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR THE LAST HALF. MIN TEMPS WILL BE TRICKIER
GIVEN THE GREATER RELIANCE ON CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WED NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST WITH LOWS
POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND AND WARMER NEAR THE SHORE.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST WED NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO GET CLOSER
BEFORE ADDING THAT TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
THRU TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE RESULTANT STABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN
LLWS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL OF -SHRA. AROUND THE TIME OF FROPA OR JUST AFTER...EXPECT A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. SHOULDN`T LAST MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HRS AT EACH
TERMINAL. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...S TO SW WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL GUST TO AROUND 25KT TONIGHT...BUT UP TO 30KT AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
TONIGHT AND MON...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE W TO NW WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 20KT. AN UPTICK IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT/TUE
TO 20-30KT...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR FLOWING OVER THE
LAKE AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO
UNDER 15KT W TO E TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE UPPER
LAKES. THE HIGH PRES WILL THEN DRIFT TO THE ENE WED THRU FRI...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS A RESULT...WHILE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME...SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY 20KT OR LESS
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1100 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
AS OF 3PM THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS JUST
NORTHWEST OF ALEXANDRIA. BASED ON LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT POSITION...SLIGHTLY SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING IN THE GOING FORECAST...BY JUST
AN HOUR OR TWO. AS FAR AS CLOUD COVER FOR VIEWING THE ECLIPSE IS
CONCERNED...STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW CLOUDS COULD REACH THE METRO
CLOSER TO 11PM-12AM...BUT SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
VIEWING. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CLOUD COVER. BASED ON ITS TREND...AREAS FROM REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH
ST CLOUD AND WEST OF THERE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DURING THE ECLIPSE.
SOME OF THE CAMS SHOWED DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE
MINNESOTA PORTION OF THE FA DRY TONIGHT...WITH THE MOISTURE
FINALLY ENOUGH IN WESTERN WI AFTER MIDNIGHT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOP...THEN LIGHTING UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITION SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM WEST CENTRAL WI NEAR EAU
CLAIRE...THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN /NEAR ALBERT LEA/. NAM SHOWED
BEST LI`S BECOMING NEGATIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF CAPE...ENOUGH FOR ADDING A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG HIGH WILL BE POISED TO PLUNGE INTO OUR AREA
WITH RAPID DRYING AND CLEARING SKIES IN CENTRAL MN BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE DROP IN DEW POINTS WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...DEW POINTS WILL BE NEAR
40 NEAR ALEXANDRIA...WITH UPPER 40S DEW POINTS WORKING INTO THE
METRO...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
ONE THING THAT HAS NOT CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH ANY OF THE MODELS AS SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CONUS. THE MAIN POLAR JET WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
RETREATS TO THE NORTH UP ACROSS THE CANADIAN ARCTIC...WITH A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL JET SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN CONUS. THIS WEAKENING
OF THE JETS RESULTS IN A WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN IN WHICH THE GUIDANCE
IS STRUGGLING TO HANDLE WHERE UPPER HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE CUT-OFF FROM
THE FLOW. IN GENERAL THOUGH THE DEFINITE TREND WE HAVE SEEN WITH THE
MODELS IS THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC AS A CLOSED HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER NRN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO. THIS BECOMES THE PERFECT UPPER
AIR SETUP FOR DEVELOPING A HUDSON HIGH AT THE SFC...WHICH IS WHAT
BOTH MODELS SHOW. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A VERY DRY SE FLOW MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE PRECIP WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS
TO START CONSIDERABLY CUTTING BACK POPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH IF THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE DOWN THE SAME
ROAD...WE COULD PROBABLY CUT THEM EVEN FURTHER WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
FOR THE FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...THERE STILL LOOKS
TO BE LINGERING PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 12Z MODELS THOUGH ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THAT AREA OF PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA
PRETTY QUICK MONDAY EVENING...SO WENT PRETTY MUCH DRY WITH THE
FORECAST AFTER 3Z TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WE WILL SEE A COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FALLING BACK INTO AT LEAST THE 30S AND WE WILL LIKELY MIX SOME 20S
DOWN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL LEAD TO OUR COOLEST MORNING
OF THE FALL THUS FAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WRN WI /CLOSEST TO THE
HIGH CENTER/ WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S...WITH
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON LOOKING LIKE A POSSIBILITY OUT AROUND
LADYSMITH. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...OUR H85 TEMPS LOOK TO HANG OUT
BETWEEN +4 AND +8C WHICH TRANSLATES NICELY TO HIGHS IN THE 60S.
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HUDSON HIGH...WE WILL ALSO SEE COOL
MORNINGS...WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S EVERY
NIGHT...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR FROST COMING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
RIDGE AXIS SETS UP ON A NIGHTLY BASIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT...BUT DID ADD SHRA AT A FEW LOCATIONS.
MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE HEAVIER ON THE PRECIP...AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS TO THE WEST...SO THINK
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
KMSP...
ADDED VFR SHOWERS FOR THE MORNING PUSH. CLOUD BASES WILL BE ABOVE
3000FT...AND NOT ANTICIPATING AND VISBY RESTRICTIONS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
WED...VFR. WIND SE AT 5-10KT.
THU...VFR. WIND ESE AT 5-10KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
647 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
AS OF 3PM THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS JUST
NORTHWEST OF ALEXANDRIA. BASED ON LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT POSITION...SLIGHTLY SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING IN THE GOING FORECAST...BY JUST
AN HOUR OR TWO. AS FAR AS CLOUD COVER FOR VIEWING THE ECLIPSE IS
CONCERNED...STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW CLOUDS COULD REACH THE METRO
CLOSER TO 11PM-12AM...BUT SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
VIEWING. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CLOUD COVER. BASED ON ITS TREND...AREAS FROM REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH
ST CLOUD AND WEST OF THERE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DURING THE ECLIPSE.
SOME OF THE CAMS SHOWED DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE
MINNESOTA PORTION OF THE FA DRY TONIGHT...WITH THE MOISTURE
FINALLY ENOUGH IN WESTERN WI AFTER MIDNIGHT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOP...THEN LIGHTING UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITION SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM WEST CENTRAL WI NEAR EAU
CLAIRE...THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN /NEAR ALBERT LEA/. NAM SHOWED
BEST LI`S BECOMING NEGATIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF CAPE...ENOUGH FOR ADDING A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG HIGH WILL BE POISED TO PLUNGE INTO OUR AREA
WITH RAPID DRYING AND CLEARING SKIES IN CENTRAL MN BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE DROP IN DEW POINTS WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...DEW POINTS WILL BE NEAR
40 NEAR ALEXANDRIA...WITH UPPER 40S DEW POINTS WORKING INTO THE
METRO...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
ONE THING THAT HAS NOT CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH ANY OF THE MODELS AS SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CONUS. THE MAIN POLAR JET WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
RETREATS TO THE NORTH UP ACROSS THE CANADIAN ARCTIC...WITH A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL JET SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN CONUS. THIS WEAKENING
OF THE JETS RESULTS IN A WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN IN WHICH THE GUIDANCE
IS STRUGGLING TO HANDLE WHERE UPPER HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE CUT-OFF FROM
THE FLOW. IN GENERAL THOUGH THE DEFINITE TREND WE HAVE SEEN WITH THE
MODELS IS THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC AS A CLOSED HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER NRN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO. THIS BECOMES THE PERFECT UPPER
AIR SETUP FOR DEVELOPING A HUDSON HIGH AT THE SFC...WHICH IS WHAT
BOTH MODELS SHOW. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A VERY DRY SE FLOW MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE PRECIP WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS
TO START CONSIDERABLY CUTTING BACK POPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH IF THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE DOWN THE SAME
ROAD...WE COULD PROBABLY CUT THEM EVEN FURTHER WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
FOR THE FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...THERE STILL LOOKS
TO BE LINGERING PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 12Z MODELS THOUGH ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THAT AREA OF PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA
PRETTY QUICK MONDAY EVENING...SO WENT PRETTY MUCH DRY WITH THE
FORECAST AFTER 3Z TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WE WILL SEE A COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FALLING BACK INTO AT LEAST THE 30S AND WE WILL LIKELY MIX SOME 20S
DOWN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL LEAD TO OUR COOLEST MORNING
OF THE FALL THUS FAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WRN WI /CLOSEST TO THE
HIGH CENTER/ WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S...WITH
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON LOOKING LIKE A POSSIBILITY OUT AROUND
LADYSMITH. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...OUR H85 TEMPS LOOK TO HANG OUT
BETWEEN +4 AND +8C WHICH TRANSLATES NICELY TO HIGHS IN THE 60S.
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HUDSON HIGH...WE WILL ALSO SEE COOL
MORNINGS...WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S EVERY
NIGHT...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR FROST COMING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
RIDGE AXIS SETS UP ON A NIGHTLY BASIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH
THE REGION AND BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP...SO ONLY MENTIONED VCSH AT THE
WISCONSIN SITES. WINDS WILL BE NORTH NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT.
KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. HIRES MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE WIND
SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT...SO PUSHED BACK THE TIMING IN THE TAF. NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND N AT 5-10KT.
WED...VFR. WIND SE AT 5-10KT.
THU...VFR. WIND ESE AT 5-10KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1239 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
STRATUS/FOG REMAIN SOCKED IN ACROSS MOST OF THE DULUTH CWA AS OF
MID EVENING. AFTER SIGNIFICANT EROSION ON THE EDGES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON..AS WELL AS FOG/CEILINGS LIFTING SUBSTANTIALLY..
NIGHTTIME IR SAT IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRATUS EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ONCE AGAIN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WITH LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING..AND THE
INVERSION SLOWLY STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT..WE EXPECT THIS EXPANSION
TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT..WITH STRATUS AND FOG SPREADING BACK
ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DULUTH CWA WHERE IT ALREADY
HAS NOT.
WHILE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS YET TO REFORM AS OF 9 PM ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE AND OVER AREAS AT THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF LK
SUPERIOR..VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING ALONG THE I35
CORRIDOR FROM MOOSE LAKE TO DULUTH..AND CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY LOWERING. AGAIN..WITH THE WEAK EAST FLOW/UPSLOPE IN
VICINITY OF THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE..WE HAVE NO COMPELLING
REASON TO PART WITH THE DAYSHIFT-ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT
JUST WENT INTO EFFECT. WE STILL EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY..IF NOT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO REFORM OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. SOME
DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE UPSLOPE AREAS FROM
DULUTH TO TWO HARBORS AND SILVER BAY.
TIGHTENING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON SATURDAY SHOULD FINALLY RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT FLOW FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX OUT..EVENTUALLY.
WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOW CLOUDS/FOG HANG ON INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN
RIDGE..AS IT WILL BE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON BEFORE FLOW CAN REALLY
INCREASE AN BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THESE AREAS PER LATEST CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO A DRY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...BUT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS REMAINED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE FLOW HAS BEEN WEAK AS SEEN WITH
KDLH VWP ONLY SHOWING WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KT AT 925MB/850MB.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT THE RAP SUGGESTS
LOWER CLOUDS WILL EXPAND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS. FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ADJACENT TO
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. WE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH SHORE DOWN INTO THE TWIN PORTS
REGION LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BE
DENSE ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED OUT. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY.
AS THE WEAK HIGH DEPARTS...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS A COLD
FRONT/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WE EXPECT
THE CLOUDS/FOG TO SCOUR OUT MOST AREAS SATURDAY DUE TO STRONGER
WINDS AND BETTER MIXING. THE NORTH SHORE WILL BE LAST TO SEE THE
CLOUDS/FOG LIFT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
SIXTIES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...BUT THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL
SEE HIGHS FROM 70 TO 76.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THE FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
LATEST GFS/GEM/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND PCPN...AND GENERALLY FASTER THAN THEIR EARLIER
RUNS. THEREFORE...WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS. STILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO CUT BACK ON THIS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS SINCE THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER FORECAST FOR THIS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND AS A COLD FRONT IN CANADA APPROACHES THE NW FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS BUFR AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...HAVING 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND SPEED IN THE MIXING LAYER
IN BOTH MODELS. THEREFORE...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE
LIKELY...AND MIGHT NEED TO INCREASE THIS TO NEARLY 30 MPH WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...AND
PROBABLY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S.
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND...GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE...DURING THIS TIME. THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO BRING A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURE...WHICH WILL
NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNTIL TUESDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THUNDER...BUT THE GFS AND SREF INDICATE LITTLE
IF NO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...SO FELT COMFORTABLE REMOVING THUNDER FROM
THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHLAND...RESULTING
IN SUNNY SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN JUST A
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 50S. THIS LATEST
FORECAST HAS MIDDLE 50S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 OVER THE
SOUTH...BUT MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THIS SEVERAL DEGREES.
TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS WITH THE PASSING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE MODELS
ARE TRENDING COLDER...AND MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE FORECAST MUCH MORE
THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN THE FORECAST. NORTHERN MINNESOTA COULD
FACE THE THREAT OF FROST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
NORTHLAND AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT MOST
TAF SITES...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. IFR/LIFR
FOG/STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES AT DLH WHERE THE MOIST
MARINE LAYER IS RESULTING IN VISIBILITY BELOW A QUARTER MILE.
IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST MID MORNING TOMORROW...MOST SITES
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14-15Z. DLH MAY REMAIN IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING...BUT HAVE CONFIDENCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY
THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SKIES CLEAR OUT WINDS WILL PICK UP DUE TO
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS
AT INL AND 15-20KTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT BY THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AT DLH...AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN.
ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT INL AS A STRONG
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS DUE TO A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS UP TO AROUND 45KTS AT 2KFT AGL AFTER
03Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 56 74 56 69 / 0 0 20 20
INL 58 75 50 64 / 0 40 30 0
BRD 59 77 57 70 / 0 0 10 20
HYR 56 76 58 71 / 0 0 10 30
ASX 56 76 58 70 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-
037.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJM/MILLER
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
857 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE FROM MILES CITY TO HARDIN AND OVER
TO LIVINGSTON AS SOME FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP ON THIS...BUT HAVE NOW
BEGUN TO HANDLE IT BETTER. HAVE UP POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. REIMER
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
HEIGHTS STILL FALLING ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FROM ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THIS TROUGH MOVEMENT IS BRINGING EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA BUT DEEPER TAP IS OVER WYOMING AND
CURRENT RADAR DOES SO ANY PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE PARK AND THE BIG HORNS. WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE
RISE HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 9 PM.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS TIMING MAY IMPACT LUNAR ECLIPSE VIEWING FOR
PEOPLE.
MONDAY IS MOSTLY DRY WITH A CONTINUED COOLING TREND WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING WEAKLY OVER THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS BECOMES POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND MOISTURE IS
PULLED INTO THAT AREA AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. STILL NOT A BUNCH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED.
TUESDAY HEIGHTS BUILD UPSTREAM WITH DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRYING
BUT NO WHERE NEAR THE SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS SEEN EARLIER THIS
WEEKEND. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
EXTENDED DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE SHOWING AGREEMENT EARLY...WHILE
THE EURO ENSEMBLES CONTINUED TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE GEFS SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL 00Z
FRI. NOTED THAT DETERMINISTIC MODELS START FALLING OUT OF
AGREEMENT ON FRI WITH POTENIALLY POTENT APPROACHING WEST-COAST
SYSTEM.
UPPER RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... TO
THEN BE REPLACED BY PACIFIC TROUGH WHEN MODEL QPF BEGINS TO
INCREASE WITH ASSOCIATED FORCING IN WESTERN ZONES. THE TROUGH WILL
FORM AN UPPER LOW THAT SHIFTS SE DURING FRI... WITH TRENDING
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SAME DIRECTION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS ARE PRESENT IN THE GRIDS TO COVER THIS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST THE AREA ON THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TRACK SHOULD BRING
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE AREA GRADUALLY... AS THE FRONTAL COMPLEX
AND SFC LOW ALSO REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH.
GFS SOLUTION HAS MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND QPF IN FAVOR OF AT LEAST
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT EURO IS
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND DRIER IN THE SAME PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION
BRINGS AN UPPER LOW ONTO THE CENTRAL CA COST...WHILE THE GFS HAD
THE LOW NEARBY BUT MUCH WEAKER..WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IN THE
EURO LIKELY THE SOURCE OF WARMER TEMPS. BOTH MODELS THUS HAD VERY
DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF FLOW OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SW IN THE EURO AND SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN
THE NW FLOW FROM THE GFS... BUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD WAS DRY IN
BOTH MODELS. MROWELL
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH/
EAST OF A KLVM-KBIL-KMLS LINE TONIGHT. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WILL
BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/068 046/078 051/081 053/072 051/065 047/059 041/063
20/B 00/U 01/U 35/W 53/W 22/W 11/B
LVM 041/069 042/078 046/081 048/068 046/064 044/058 039/062
10/U 00/U 01/B 34/W 32/W 22/W 22/W
HDN 047/070 044/079 048/084 050/076 048/067 045/062 041/068
20/B 01/B 11/U 35/W 52/W 22/W 11/B
MLS 049/068 044/077 048/081 052/077 050/066 046/063 042/066
21/B 01/B 11/U 25/W 43/W 22/W 11/B
4BQ 050/066 046/077 049/082 051/076 049/067 046/064 043/068
21/E 01/B 21/U 13/W 54/W 22/W 21/B
BHK 047/064 043/072 047/078 049/073 048/064 044/062 041/064
42/W 01/B 21/U 23/W 44/W 21/B 11/B
SHR 046/069 043/079 047/082 048/075 048/067 042/063 039/068
21/B 11/B 11/B 24/W 33/W 22/W 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
634 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
THE ACTIVITY OVER THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE MORE
ACTIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING AS FAR EAST AS YELLOWSTONE COUNTY. HAVE
BROUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO SOUTHERN YELLOWSTONE COUNTY AND ADDED
A MENTION OF THUNDER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. REIMER
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
HEIGHTS STILL FALLING ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FROM ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THIS TROUGH MOVEMENT IS BRINGING EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA BUT DEEPER TAP IS OVER WYOMING AND
CURRENT RADAR DOES SO ANY PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE PARK AND THE BIG HORNS. WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE
RISE HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 9 PM.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS TIMING MAY IMPACT LUNAR ECLIPSE VIEWING FOR
PEOPLE.
MONDAY IS MOSTLY DRY WITH A CONTINUED COOLING TREND WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING WEAKLY OVER THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS BECOMES POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND MOISTURE IS
PULLED INTO THAT AREA AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. STILL NOT A BUNCH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED.
TUESDAY HEIGHTS BUILD UPSTREAM WITH DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRYING
BUT NO WHERE NEAR THE SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS SEEN EARLIER THIS
WEEKEND. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
EXTENDED DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE SHOWING AGREEMENT EARLY...WHILE
THE EURO ENSEMBLES CONTINUED TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE GEFS SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL 00Z
FRI. NOTED THAT DETERMINISTIC MODELS START FALLING OUT OF
AGREEMENT ON FRI WITH POTENIALLY POTENT APPROACHING WEST-COAST
SYSTEM.
UPPER RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... TO
THEN BE REPLACED BY PACIFIC TROUGH WHEN MODEL QPF BEGINS TO
INCREASE WITH ASSOCIATED FORCING IN WESTERN ZONES. THE TROUGH WILL
FORM AN UPPER LOW THAT SHIFTS SE DURING FRI... WITH TRENDING
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SAME DIRECTION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS ARE PRESENT IN THE GRIDS TO COVER THIS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST THE AREA ON THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TRACK SHOULD BRING
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE AREA GRADUALLY... AS THE FRONTAL COMPLEX
AND SFC LOW ALSO REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH.
GFS SOLUTION HAS MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND QPF IN FAVOR OF AT LEAST
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT EURO IS
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND DRIER IN THE SAME PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION
BRINGS AN UPPER LOW ONTO THE CENTRAL CA COST...WHILE THE GFS HAD
THE LOW NEARBY BUT MUCH WEAKER..WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IN THE
EURO LIKELY THE SOURCE OF WARMER TEMPS. BOTH MODELS THUS HAD VERY
DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF FLOW OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SW IN THE EURO AND SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN
THE NW FLOW FROM THE GFS... BUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD WAS DRY IN
BOTH MODELS. MROWELL
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH/
EAST OF A KLVM-KBIL-KMLS LINE TONIGHT. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WILL
BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/068 046/078 051/081 053/072 051/065 047/059 041/063
20/B 00/U 01/U 35/W 53/W 22/W 11/B
LVM 041/069 042/078 046/081 048/068 046/064 044/058 039/062
10/U 00/U 01/B 34/W 32/W 22/W 22/W
HDN 047/070 044/079 048/084 050/076 048/067 045/062 041/068
10/B 01/B 11/U 35/W 52/W 22/W 11/B
MLS 049/068 044/077 048/081 052/077 050/066 046/063 042/066
21/B 01/B 11/U 25/W 43/W 22/W 11/B
4BQ 050/066 046/077 049/082 051/076 049/067 046/064 043/068
21/E 01/B 21/U 13/W 54/W 22/W 21/B
BHK 047/064 043/072 047/078 049/073 048/064 044/062 041/064
42/W 01/B 21/U 23/W 44/W 21/B 11/B
SHR 046/069 043/079 047/082 048/075 048/067 042/063 039/068
21/B 11/B 11/B 24/W 33/W 22/W 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
356 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LEWISTOWN ON TRACK FOR AN EVENING
PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING. RADAR
SHOWS SOME WEAK RETURNS WITH HRRR CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE A LITTLE
BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY NORTH OF THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER SO KEPT AN ISOLATED MENTION BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE. DO EXPECT A PERIOD OF 15 TO 20 MPH
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AS IT HEADS SOUTH OF
BILLINGS TOWARDS SHERIDAN.
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY BUT MAINLY DRY UNTIL A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. COULD SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS BUT
EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
WHERE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE LEADING EDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT GENERATING A BIT OF UPSLOPE. AGAIN
MUCH PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED BUT CHANCES INCREASE AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AS THE NIGHT GOES ON.
CONTINUED COOLING TREND ON MONDAY AS THE EASTERLIES SPREAD
WESTWARD AND A BIT OF MIDLEVEL WARMING PROVIDES WEAK LIFT. NOT
ENOUGH TO GENERATE MOISTURE FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BUT
SOUTHEAST MONTANA STILL HAS A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN AND HOPEFULLY RETURNS OUR FORECAST AREA TO SEASONABLE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
BEYOND FRIDAY WITH A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS.
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATES. WARM 850MB TEMPS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
WARM UP VERY WELL WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY ON TUESDAY BUT
AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF MILES CITY. NOT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE UNTIL
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL OFF THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN RAIN
AMOUNTS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE A MUCH
COOLER AND CLOUDIER DAY AS GOOD FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE
EURO IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT. TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 CAN BE EXPECTED.
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY MUCH UNCERTAINTY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE INTERACTION OF A
PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ANOTHER AMPLIFYING SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK. THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
WHILE THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUN WANTED TO BUILD ANOTHER RIDGE.
GIVEN THAT THIS WAS A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE LAST FEW
RUNS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP
OUR AREA NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.
ONE SHOULD NOTE THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO SHIFTS IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST ARE LIKELY.
DOBBS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO
THE NW. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE OVER KMLS AT 06Z TONIGHT
AND COULD LAST UNTIL ABOUT 13Z TOMORROW. DOBBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 093 055/072 048/070 046/076 053/079 052/073 048/070
0/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 12/W 33/W 32/W
LVM 086 047/073 042/071 043/075 046/077 046/069 043/070
1/B 21/B 11/B 11/U 12/W 33/W 21/B
HDN 097 052/074 046/072 045/077 049/082 049/076 045/071
0/B 11/B 21/B 11/B 12/W 34/W 42/W
MLS 095 057/074 047/069 045/077 050/082 051/075 048/070
0/B 01/B 22/W 11/B 12/W 34/W 43/T
4BQ 096 056/076 049/071 047/077 050/082 052/076 048/071
0/U 00/B 22/T 22/W 21/B 34/W 43/T
BHK 091 054/073 047/066 044/071 048/079 050/073 047/067
0/U 00/B 32/T 21/B 21/B 34/W 43/T
SHR 094 052/076 046/073 045/076 046/080 049/074 044/070
0/U 00/B 22/T 21/B 22/W 23/W 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
319 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LEWISTOWN ON TRACK FOR AN EVENING
PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING. RADAR
SHOWS SOME WEAK RETURNS WITH HRRR CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE A LITTLE
BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY NORTH OF THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER SO KEPT AN ISOLATED MENTION BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE. DO EXPECT A PERIOD OF 15 TO 20 MPH
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AS IT HEADS SOUTH OF
BILLINGS TOWARDS SHERIDAN.
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY BUT MAINLY DRY UNTIL A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. COULD SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS BUT
EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
WHERE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE LEADING EDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT GENERATING A BIT OF UPSLOPE. AGAIN
MUCH PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED BUT CHANCES INCREASE AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AS THE NIGHT GOES ON.
CONTINUED COOLING TREND ON MONDAY AS THE EASTERLIES SPREAD
WESTWARD AND A BIT OF MIDLEVEL WARMING PROVIDES WEAK LIFT. NOT
ENOUGH TO GENERATE MOISTURE FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BUT
SOUTHEAST MONTANA STILL HAS A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN AND HOPEFULLY RETURNS OUR FORECAST AREA TO SEASONABLE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
BEYOND FRIDAY WITH A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS.
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATES. WARM 850MB TEMPS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
WARM UP VERY WELL WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY ON TUESDAY BUT
AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF MILES CITY. NOT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE UNTIL
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL OFF THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN RAIN
AMOUNTS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE A MUCH
COOLER AND CLOUDIER DAY AS GOOD FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE
EURO IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT. TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 CAN BE EXPECTED.
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY MUCH UNCERTAINTY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE INTERACTION OF A
PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ANOTHER AMPLIFYING SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK. THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
WHILE THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUN WANTED TO BUILD ANOTHER RIDGE.
GIVEN THAT THIS WAS A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE LAST FEW
RUNS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP
OUR AREA NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.
ONE SHOULD NOTE THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO SHIFTS IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST ARE LIKELY.
DOBBS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO
THE NW. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE OVER KMLS AND KSHR AFTER
06Z TONIGHT AND WILL LAST UNTIL ABOUT 13Z TOMORROW. DOBBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/072 048/070 046/076 053/079 052/073 048/070 047/063
11/B 11/B 11/B 12/W 33/W 32/W 11/B
LVM 047/073 042/071 043/075 046/077 046/069 043/070 042/065
21/B 11/B 11/U 12/W 33/W 21/B 22/W
HDN 052/074 046/072 045/077 049/082 049/076 045/071 044/067
11/B 21/B 11/B 12/W 34/W 42/W 11/B
MLS 057/074 047/069 045/077 050/082 051/075 048/070 045/065
01/B 22/W 11/B 12/W 34/W 43/T 12/W
4BQ 056/076 049/071 047/077 050/082 052/076 048/071 046/067
00/B 22/T 22/W 21/B 34/W 43/T 12/W
BHK 054/073 047/066 044/071 048/079 050/073 047/067 045/063
00/B 32/T 21/B 21/B 34/W 43/T 12/W
SHR 052/076 046/073 045/076 046/080 049/074 044/070 040/066
00/B 22/T 21/B 22/W 23/W 32/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
225 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
ANOTHER UPDATE HAS POSTED. STRATUS CONTS TO LINGER W OF HWY 183.
SKY FCST HAS BEEN TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC IN THIS AREA...BUT
EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST INCREASE WITH
THE STRATUS LIFTING INTO A DECK OF STRATOCU. HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED 3-5F W OF HWY 183 WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING. FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA...A VERY NICE DAY IS IN PROGRESS. ENJOY IT!
WE WILL BE EVALUATING POTENTIAL FOR FOG REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE W
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. TOP/OAX 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LVL DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE E. SO IT MIGHT NOT BE A PROBLEM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO TEMPS/DWPTS/WINDS THRU NOON. OBSERVED
TEMPS/DWPTS WERE SVRL DEGS BELOW THE FCST OVER THE NE 1/2 OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE SKIES WERE M/CLEAR AND WERE ABOVE THE FCST OVER
THE SW 1/2 DUE TO CLOUD COVER. FCST NOW BETTER REFLECTS REALITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LOCATIONS THAT TEMPORARILY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THESE SEEM TO BE SHORT LIVED AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
SPORADIC.
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. HAVE SOME CONCERN
NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK THAT FOG COULD FORM. THE
DEW POINT SPREAD IS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...THE CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF AND WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE EAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND...TO THE EAST OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS LOWER DEW
POINTS AND A GREATER DEW POINT SPREAD. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A SMALL AREA OF LOWER
VISIBILITIES A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUN RISE. THIS AREA IS NEAR THE
PROJECTED EDGE OF THE STRATUS AROUND 12Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
AREAS OF FOG IN. VISIBILITIES COULD BE AROUND A MILE OR SO AND WILL
KEEP IT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA INSTEAD OF GETTING TOO SPECIFIC.
THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
HAVE ENDED. THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR SO IN A FEW AREAS...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE MUCH OF ANYTHING. WILL REMOVE THE SHOWER
CHANCES.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. A SURFACE
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE TODAY AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THEY WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
MAINLY 5 TO 15 MPH. THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH AND THE CLOUDS OUT
THERE NOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND LEAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH THE SUNSHINE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY...SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE
AXIS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER TX AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES...EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE BAJA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...AS
THE CWA SITS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SPEEDS LOOK
TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS IN THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WORKING ITS WAY BACK
EAST INTO THE AREA...EXPECTING A BUMP UP IN HIGHS...INTO THE
LOWER/MID 80S.
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WORK WEEK...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDING EAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA FURTHER BREAKS DOWN THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS AND STARTS PUSHING IT FURTHER SOUTH. GENERAL AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS SHOW IT LOCATED OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA/IF NOT
JUST SOUTH OF OUR SRN BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE BY THEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE PUSHING THAT
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC FRONT SOUTH...WITH MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT SHOWING IT BY 12Z MONDAY HAVING MOVED THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK
OF OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...AND BY 12Z TUESDAY IS IN THE I-70 AREA OF
NRN KS. INCREASED LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...ALONG
WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION...LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE CWA THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. KEPT THE
MAIN AREA OF POPS ACROSS OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...WITH MODELS NOT
SHOWING A WHOLE LOT MOVING THROUGH NC KS. HAVE A THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE...WHILE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT SHOWING AN ABUNDANCE OF
INSTABILITY...ITS NOT ZERO EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE A
BIT TRICKY WITH THAT SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...AS WELL AS ON TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AFFECTING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ARE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF ESP SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ON MONDAY...AND HAVE TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S IN THE
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.
HAVE SOME LINGERING 20 POPS IN PLACE ON WED ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THEY NEED TO BE THERE AT ALL OR
NOT IS NOT HIGH. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
STARTING TO BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NM/MEX BORDER AREA. THIS
RIDGING SLIDES EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...BEING
PUSHED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES. EXPECTING ANOTHER BUMP BACK UP IN TEMPS...INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY. LOOKING TO THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD THURS NIGHT/FRI...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOOKING TO BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...BUT TIMING/LOCATION
DETAILS HAVE SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 21Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 21Z SUN AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU AROUND 4K FT. SE
WINDS 8-12 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: VFR SKC. SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS BECOME S. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
SUN THRU 18Z: VFR SKC. SSW WINDS INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 25 KTS
AFTER 15Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1102 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
ANOTHER UPDATE HAS POSTED. STRATUS CONTS TO LINGER W OF HWY 183.
SKY FCST HAS BEEN TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC IN THIS AREA...BUT
EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST INCREASE WITH
THE STRATUS LIFTING INTO A DECK OF STRATOCU. HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED 3-5F W OF HWY 183 WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING. FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA...A VERY NICE DAY IS IN PROGRESS. ENJOY IT!
WE WILL BE EVALUATING POTENTIAL FOR FOG REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE W
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. TOP/OAX 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LVL DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE E. SO IT MIGHT NOT BE A PROBLEM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO TEMPS/DWPTS/WINDS THRU NOON. OBSERVED
TEMPS/DWPTS WERE SVRL DEGS BELOW THE FCST OVER THE NE 1/2 OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE SKIES WERE M/CLEAR AND WERE ABOVE THE FCST OVER
THE SW 1/2 DUE TO CLOUD COVER. FCST NOW BETTER REFLECTS REALITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LOCATIONS THAT TEMPORARILY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THESE SEEM TO BE SHORT LIVED AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
SPORADIC.
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. HAVE SOME CONCERN
NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK THAT FOG COULD FORM. THE
DEW POINT SPREAD IS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...THE CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF AND WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE EAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND...TO THE EAST OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS LOWER DEW
POINTS AND A GREATER DEW POINT SPREAD. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A SMALL AREA OF LOWER
VISIBILITIES A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUN RISE. THIS AREA IS NEAR THE
PROJECTED EDGE OF THE STRATUS AROUND 12Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
AREAS OF FOG IN. VISIBILITIES COULD BE AROUND A MILE OR SO AND WILL
KEEP IT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA INSTEAD OF GETTING TOO SPECIFIC.
THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
HAVE ENDED. THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR SO IN A FEW AREAS...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE MUCH OF ANYTHING. WILL REMOVE THE SHOWER
CHANCES.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. A SURFACE
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE TODAY AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THEY WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
MAINLY 5 TO 15 MPH. THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH AND THE CLOUDS OUT
THERE NOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND LEAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH THE SUNSHINE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY...SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE
AXIS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER TX AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES...EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE BAJA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...AS
THE CWA SITS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SPEEDS LOOK
TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS IN THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WORKING ITS WAY BACK
EAST INTO THE AREA...EXPECTING A BUMP UP IN HIGHS...INTO THE
LOWER/MID 80S.
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WORK WEEK...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDING EAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA FURTHER BREAKS DOWN THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS AND STARTS PUSHING IT FURTHER SOUTH. GENERAL AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS SHOW IT LOCATED OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA/IF NOT
JUST SOUTH OF OUR SRN BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE BY THEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE PUSHING THAT
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC FRONT SOUTH...WITH MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT SHOWING IT BY 12Z MONDAY HAVING MOVED THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK
OF OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...AND BY 12Z TUESDAY IS IN THE I-70 AREA OF
NRN KS. INCREASED LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...ALONG
WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION...LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE CWA THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. KEPT THE
MAIN AREA OF POPS ACROSS OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...WITH MODELS NOT
SHOWING A WHOLE LOT MOVING THROUGH NC KS. HAVE A THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE...WHILE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT SHOWING AN ABUNDANCE OF
INSTABILITY...ITS NOT ZERO EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE A
BIT TRICKY WITH THAT SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...AS WELL AS ON TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AFFECTING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ARE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF ESP SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ON MONDAY...AND HAVE TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S IN THE
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.
HAVE SOME LINGERING 20 POPS IN PLACE ON WED ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THEY NEED TO BE THERE AT ALL OR
NOT IS NOT HIGH. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
STARTING TO BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NM/MEX BORDER AREA. THIS
RIDGING SLIDES EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...BEING
PUSHED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES. EXPECTING ANOTHER BUMP BACK UP IN TEMPS...INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY. LOOKING TO THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD THURS NIGHT/FRI...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOOKING TO BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...BUT TIMING/LOCATION
DETAILS HAVE SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUN MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
STRATUS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. KGRI HAS
CLEARED OUT AND HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE TAF. THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS REMAINS NEAR THE KEAR TERMINAL. THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN
LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT IT SHOULD START TO LIFT
AFTER THE SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING. STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE WEST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
728 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO TEMPS/DWPTS/WINDS THRU NOON. OBSERVED
TEMPS/DWPTS WERE SVRL DEGS BELOW THE FCST OVER THE NE 1/2 OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE SKIES WERE M/CLEAR AND WERE ABOVE THE FCST OVER
THE SW 1/2 DUE TO CLOUD COVER. FCST NOW BETTER REFLECTS REALITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LOCATIONS THAT TEMPORARILY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THESE SEEM TO BE SHORT LIVED AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
SPORADIC.
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. HAVE SOME CONCERN
NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK THAT FOG COULD FORM. THE
DEW POINT SPREAD IS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...THE CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF AND WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE EAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND...TO THE EAST OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS LOWER DEW
POINTS AND A GREATER DEW POINT SPREAD. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A SMALL AREA OF LOWER
VISIBILITIES A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUN RISE. THIS AREA IS NEAR THE
PROJECTED EDGE OF THE STRATUS AROUND 12Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
AREAS OF FOG IN. VISIBILITIES COULD BE AROUND A MILE OR SO AND WILL
KEEP IT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA INSTEAD OF GETTING TOO SPECIFIC.
THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
HAVE ENDED. THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR SO IN A FEW AREAS...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE MUCH OF ANYTHING. WILL REMOVE THE SHOWER
CHANCES.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. A SURFACE
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE TODAY AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THEY WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
MAINLY 5 TO 15 MPH. THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH AND THE CLOUDS OUT
THERE NOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND LEAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH THE SUNSHINE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY...SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE
AXIS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER TX AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES...EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE BAJA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...AS
THE CWA SITS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SPEEDS LOOK
TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS IN THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WORKING ITS WAY BACK
EAST INTO THE AREA...EXPECTING A BUMP UP IN HIGHS...INTO THE
LOWER/MID 80S.
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WORK WEEK...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDING EAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA FURTHER BREAKS DOWN THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS AND STARTS PUSHING IT FURTHER SOUTH. GENERAL AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS SHOW IT LOCATED OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA/IF NOT
JUST SOUTH OF OUR SRN BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE BY THEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE PUSHING THAT
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC FRONT SOUTH...WITH MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT SHOWING IT BY 12Z MONDAY HAVING MOVED THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK
OF OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...AND BY 12Z TUESDAY IS IN THE I-70 AREA OF
NRN KS. INCREASED LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...ALONG
WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION...LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE CWA THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. KEPT THE
MAIN AREA OF POPS ACROSS OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...WITH MODELS NOT
SHOWING A WHOLE LOT MOVING THROUGH NC KS. HAVE A THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE...WHILE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT SHOWING AN ABUNDANCE OF
INSTABILITY...ITS NOT ZERO EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE A
BIT TRICKY WITH THAT SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...AS WELL AS ON TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AFFECTING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ARE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF ESP SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ON MONDAY...AND HAVE TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S IN THE
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.
HAVE SOME LINGERING 20 POPS IN PLACE ON WED ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THEY NEED TO BE THERE AT ALL OR
NOT IS NOT HIGH. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
STARTING TO BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NM/MEX BORDER AREA. THIS
RIDGING SLIDES EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...BEING
PUSHED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES. EXPECTING ANOTHER BUMP BACK UP IN TEMPS...INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY. LOOKING TO THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD THURS NIGHT/FRI...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOOKING TO BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...BUT TIMING/LOCATION
DETAILS HAVE SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
STRATUS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. KGRI HAS
CLEARED OUT AND HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE TAF. THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS REMAINS NEAR THE KEAR TERMINAL. THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN
LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT IT SHOULD START TO LIFT
AFTER THE SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING. STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE WEST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
555 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LOCATIONS THAT TEMPORARILY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THESE SEEM TO BE SHORT LIVED AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
SPORADIC.
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. HAVE SOME CONCERN
NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK THAT FOG COULD FORM. THE
DEW POINT SPREAD IS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...THE CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF AND WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE EAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND...TO THE EAST OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS LOWER DEW
POINTS AND A GREATER DEW POINT SPREAD. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A SMALL AREA OF LOWER
VISIBILITIES A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUN RISE. THIS AREA IS NEAR THE
PROJECTED EDGE OF THE STRATUS AROUND 12Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
AREAS OF FOG IN. VISIBILITIES COULD BE AROUND A MILE OR SO AND WILL
KEEP IT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA INSTEAD OF GETTING TOO SPECIFIC.
THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
HAVE ENDED. THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR SO IN A FEW AREAS...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE MUCH OF ANYTHING. WILL REMOVE THE SHOWER
CHANCES.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. A SURFACE
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE TODAY AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THEY WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
MAINLY 5 TO 15 MPH. THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH AND THE CLOUDS OUT
THERE NOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND LEAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH THE SUNSHINE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY...SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE
AXIS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER TX AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES...EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE BAJA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...AS
THE CWA SITS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SPEEDS LOOK
TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS IN THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WORKING ITS WAY BACK
EAST INTO THE AREA...EXPECTING A BUMP UP IN HIGHS...INTO THE
LOWER/MID 80S.
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WORK WEEK...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDING EAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA FURTHER BREAKS DOWN THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS AND STARTS PUSHING IT FURTHER SOUTH. GENERAL AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS SHOW IT LOCATED OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA/IF NOT
JUST SOUTH OF OUR SRN BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE BY THEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE PUSHING THAT
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC FRONT SOUTH...WITH MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT SHOWING IT BY 12Z MONDAY HAVING MOVED THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK
OF OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...AND BY 12Z TUESDAY IS IN THE I-70 AREA OF
NRN KS. INCREASED LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...ALONG
WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION...LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE CWA THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. KEPT THE
MAIN AREA OF POPS ACROSS OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...WITH MODELS NOT
SHOWING A WHOLE LOT MOVING THROUGH NC KS. HAVE A THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE...WHILE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT SHOWING AN ABUNDANCE OF
INSTABILITY...ITS NOT ZERO EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE A
BIT TRICKY WITH THAT SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...AS WELL AS ON TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AFFECTING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ARE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF ESP SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ON MONDAY...AND HAVE TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S IN THE
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.
HAVE SOME LINGERING 20 POPS IN PLACE ON WED ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THEY NEED TO BE THERE AT ALL OR
NOT IS NOT HIGH. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
STARTING TO BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NM/MEX BORDER AREA. THIS
RIDGING SLIDES EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...BEING
PUSHED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES. EXPECTING ANOTHER BUMP BACK UP IN TEMPS...INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY. LOOKING TO THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD THURS NIGHT/FRI...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOOKING TO BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...BUT TIMING/LOCATION
DETAILS HAVE SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
STRATUS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. KGRI HAS
CLEARED OUT AND HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE TAF. THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS REMAINS NEAR THE KEAR TERMINAL. THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN
LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT IT SHOULD START TO LIFT
AFTER THE SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING. STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE WEST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
408 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LOCATIONS THAT TEMPORARILY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THESE SEEM TO BE SHORT LIVED AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
SPORADIC.
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. HAVE SOME CONCERN
NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK THAT FOG COULD FORM. THE
DEW POINT SPREAD IS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...THE CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF AND WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE EAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND...TO THE EAST OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS LOWER DEW
POINTS AND A GREATER DEW POINT SPREAD. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A SMALL AREA OF LOWER
VISIBILITIES A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUN RISE. THIS AREA IS NEAR THE
PROJECTED EDGE OF THE STRATUS AROUND 12Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
AREAS OF FOG IN. VISIBILITIES COULD BE AROUND A MILE OR SO AND WILL
KEEP IT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA INSTEAD OF GETTING TOO SPECIFIC.
THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
HAVE ENDED. THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR SO IN A FEW AREAS...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE MUCH OF ANYTHING. WILL REMOVE THE SHOWER
CHANCES.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. A SURFACE
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE TODAY AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THEY WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
MAINLY 5 TO 15 MPH. THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH AND THE CLOUDS OUT
THERE NOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND LEAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH THE SUNSHINE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY...SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE
AXIS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER TX AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES...EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE BAJA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...AS
THE CWA SITS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SPEEDS LOOK
TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS IN THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WORKING ITS WAY BACK
EAST INTO THE AREA...EXPECTING A BUMP UP IN HIGHS...INTO THE
LOWER/MID 80S.
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WORK WEEK...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDING EAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA FURTHER BREAKS DOWN THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS AND STARTS PUSHING IT FURTHER SOUTH. GENERAL AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS SHOW IT LOCATED OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA/IF NOT
JUST SOUTH OF OUR SRN BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE BY THEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE PUSHING THAT
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC FRONT SOUTH...WITH MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT SHOWING IT BY 12Z MONDAY HAVING MOVED THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK
OF OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...AND BY 12Z TUESDAY IS IN THE I-70 AREA OF
NRN KS. INCREASED LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...ALONG
WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION...LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE CWA THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. KEPT THE
MAIN AREA OF POPS ACROSS OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...WITH MODELS NOT
SHOWING A WHOLE LOT MOVING THROUGH NC KS. HAVE A THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE...WHILE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT SHOWING AN ABUNDANCE OF
INSTABILITY...ITS NOT ZERO EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE A
BIT TRICKY WITH THAT SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...AS WELL AS ON TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AFFECTING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ARE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF ESP SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ON MONDAY...AND HAVE TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S IN THE
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.
HAVE SOME LINGERING 20 POPS IN PLACE ON WED ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THEY NEED TO BE THERE AT ALL OR
NOT IS NOT HIGH. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
STARTING TO BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NM/MEX BORDER AREA. THIS
RIDGING SLIDES EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...BEING
PUSHED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES. EXPECTING ANOTHER BUMP BACK UP IN TEMPS...INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY. LOOKING TO THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD THURS NIGHT/FRI...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOOKING TO BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...BUT TIMING/LOCATION
DETAILS HAVE SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW LOW IT WILL GO. THEY ARE CONSISTENT
THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE WEST. HAVE
LOWER VISIBILITY AND CEILING FOR KEAR THAN FOR KGRI. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1133 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR DRENCHING RAINS THE
PAST FEW DAYS WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 19Z. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF AND
WEAKENS. LATEST RAP INDICATES LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FOG SO HAVE
REMOVED MENTION FROM FORECAST.
GENERAL RIDGING THEN COVERS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY MONDAY
EVENING. LOOKS DRY FOR NOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH
MODELS SHOWING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. BEYOND THIS TIME THE FORECAST
BECOMES LESS CONFIDENT AS GFS AND EURO SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES
IN SOLUTIONS. EURO BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. SMALL POPS COVER MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AFTER TUESDAY BASED ON MODEL BLENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR COULD AFFECT TAF
SITES AROUND 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE PATCHY AT BEST.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
120 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE REGION...
BETWEEN STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST... WILL PRODUCE WET AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. GRADUAL DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW EXTENDING FROM
UPSTATE SC INTO SWRN NC WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT... AS THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS FROM NW GA
NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TN WITH LOWERING DPVA OVER CENTRAL NC.
ASSOCIATED POTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM SW TO
NE BUT REMAIN ENHANCED OVER THE FAR NE CWA. WITH A STEADY INFLUX OF
DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THIS AREA IN PARTICULAR (INCLUDING A
STOUT 925-850 MB JETLET FROM THE ESE) PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHT AND
PW VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL... WILL RETAIN CATEGORICAL
POPS IN THE NE CWA... ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH/NE OF A LINE FROM INT
TO RDU TO GSB. WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS TO THE SW OF HERE...
WITH CONTINUED 295K-305K MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND HIGH MOISTURE
INFLUX BUT WANING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE NSSL-WRF / HRRR / 3KM
NAMRR ALL SUPPORT THIS TREND... BOOSTING CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IN THE NE CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH... BUT IN GENERAL THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT... ALBEIT
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA. PRECIP SHOULD
TREND TO MORE DRIZZLE THAN LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WRN/SRN CWA AS THE
AIR DRIES OUT ABOVE -10C... NOTED BY THE RELATIVE DRY SLOT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NOW OVER SC AND WRN NC. THICK CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... AND EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
TO BE JUST A CATEGORY OR TWO LOWER THAN CURRENT VALUES... FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE UPPER 60S NW TO SE. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL TN INTO WRN KY WHILE
FILLING AND BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER TX AND NE MEXICO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A TREND FROM A WEAK CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE S AND
SE TO A MORE ANTICYCLONIC WEAK FLOW FROM THE WSW... WITH DPVA AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE BOTH WEAKENING AND SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. MODELS STILL DEPICT ABOVE NORMAL PW... FROM 1.5" NW TO OVER
2.0" EAST OF I95... AND MOIST UPGLIDE CONTINUES BUT TO A BIT LESSER
DEGREE (DEPENDING ON THE MODEL)... SO THE THREAT OF PATCHY RAIN
SHOULD PERSIST. OVERALL AMOUNTS AND SNAPSHOT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LOWER THAN TODAY HOWEVER... MEANING THAT WHILE MOST PLACES SHOULD
SEE MEASURABLE RAIN... IT WON`T BE AS STEADY OR WITH QUITE THE
INTENSITY AS WE`VE GOT TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER COASTAL NC
NEAR THE PERSISTENT INVERTED TROUGH... AND WELL TO OUR NW OVER THE
SW VA MOUNTAINS WHERE TERRAIN UPLIFT WILL COME INTO PLAY... BUT
OTHERWISE CENTRAL NC SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS NE TO LIKELY SW TO START THE
DAY... FOLLOWED BY A DOWNWARD TREND TO LIKELY NE AND GOOD CHANCE SW
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. ALL INDICATIONS
ARE THAT WE`LL STILL HAVE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...
RESISTANT TO MIXING IN THE VERTICAL (LACK OF BOTH CONVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE) AND HORIZONTALLY (DUE TO THE IN SITU STABLE POOL BEING
LOCKED IN OVER THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS BY TERRAIN... THE COASTAL
TROUGH... AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TO INHIBIT STIRRING). AS SUCH...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN THE RULE SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH ONLY
A LUCKY FEW (PROBABLY IN THE SE CWA) HAVING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SUNSHINE). EXPECT HIGHS MINIMALLY HIGHER THAN TODAY... FROM THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S NW TO SE. LOWS SAT NIGHT 60-68 WITH WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THAT THERE WILL BE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
IMPROVEMENT IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FINALLY ARRIVING ON MONDAY. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT
SHIFTS WEST AND HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY OVER OUR REGION...THE AIRMASS
OVER CENTRAL NC REMAINS MOIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH PW VALUES STILL AT
OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME AND
SHIFTING NORTH AS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS IN AN ARC FROM THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN NORTHWEST INTO THE VA BORDER COUNTIES WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SUNDAY MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY BUT HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SEVERAL
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD WHERE A WEDGE AIRMASS REMAINS
ESTABLISHED. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
HIGHS WILL MODERATE SOME ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST. MORNING LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE IN
THE 60S.
A PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH CENTRAL NC BEING
LOCATED IN BETWEEN A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM SYSTEM AND A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FOR LATE MONDAY INTO LATE TUESDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER. THIS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST PERIOD OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK GOOD.
THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE LATE
WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO LATE
THURSDAY. HPC GUIDANCE POPS HAVE TRENDED UP NOTABLY AND WE WILL
FOLLOW THAT TREND WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAYS FORECAST APPEARS RATHER UNCERTAIN WITH THE NEW OPERATIONAL
ECMWF DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST
THE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH ON FRIDAY. THE GFS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DON`T SUPPORT THAT SOLUTION. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE. -
BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM SATURDAY...
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT SUB VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS
AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG ELY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS SFC WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NE 8-13KTS.
TODAY...WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY IFR-LOW END MVFR CEILINGS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE LIFR-IFR CEILINGS REDEVELOP AROUND SUNSET.
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT. PRECIP
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HEAVY OR AS
WIDESPREAD AS FRIDAY.
THE MURKY AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS WELL WITH LIFR-
IFR CEILINGS SUNDAY MORNING SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOULD OCCUR...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH PROLONGED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL NOT TOTALLY DRY OUT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
WE`RE STILL GETTING RAINFALL REPORTS IN... BUT BY RADAR
ESTIMATION... WE`VE HAD ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH AND
A HALF ACROSS CENTRAL NC... ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME TRAFFIC SNARLS AND
CONSIDERABLE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS... BUT NO NOTABLE RIVER OR
CREEK FLOODING. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH AN INCH... MAINLY
IN THE NRN CWA... BUT OVERALL ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN IS UNLIKELY TO
CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS. THE WET ROADS AND PONDING OF WATER HOWEVER
WILL REMAIN A TRAVEL ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...WSS
HYDROLOGY...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
116 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE RELUCTANT TO DRY OUT UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY
WITH A DAILY RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. TWEAKED PRECIP
TO FIT EXTRAPOLATED TRENDS FROM THE CURRENT RADAR...AND ADJUSTED
CLOUD COVER DOWN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR THE SANTEE
RIVER WHERE SKIES ARE PROBABLY PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST CURRENTLY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES EITHER.
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH GEORGIA IS BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE
TOWARD CENTRAL TENNESSEE...MAINTAINING A SOUTHERLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW THAT CAME ASHORE IN
SOUTH CAROLINA EARLIER THIS MORNING IS DISSIPATING ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL GEORGIA. A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WITH US MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...HELPING MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE TIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY CANADA. THIS HIGH IS ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD BUT
IS BEING HELD BACK BY THE OLD LOW OVER GEORGIA AND THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH. THE HIGH SHOULD BUILD A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SOME OF THE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES DOWN INTO NORTHERNMOST
SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. ALONG THE BEACHES WIND GUSTS OVER 20 MPH
ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOST WIDESPREAD WELL NORTH OF THE TROUGH
WHERE SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300K THETA SURFACE EXISTS.
ITS INTERESTING THAT THE FLOW CHANGES DIRECTION CONSIDERABLY
BETWEEN THE 300K AND 305K SURFACES...EASTERLY VS. SOUTHEASTERLY...
HELPING EXPLAIN THE DIFFERENCE IN OBSERVED MOVEMENT BETWEEN THE
SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE COLUMNS THAT HAVE
A MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. THE HRRR/RUC MODELS SHOW THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA PLUS THE
NORTHERN PEE DEE REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND POPS ACROSS THIS
REGION ARE IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE. POPS ARE LESS...20-40
PERCENT...NEAR AND SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH AND LAKE CITY.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WARM FOR THIS LATE IN THE
YEAR...NEAR 68-70 WITH LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN JET WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW ACROSS
GEORGIA TODAY WILL REMAIN W OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...ENDING UP
NEAR THE TEXAS COAST SUNDAY. WEAK RIDING ALOFT WILL POKE INTO THE
CAROLINAS SUN...AN EXTENSION OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH 25 KFT OR SO...EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL.
HOWEVER DEVELOPING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE
INSTABILITY...AND MODELS DO SHOW CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 500
J/KG OR GREATER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...1.75 TO 2 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE DEEPEST NEARER TO THE
COAST..ESPECIALLY ON SAT. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE N OF THE
FORECAST AREA SAT AND SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND UPPER LOW...WELL TO OUR W AND THIS SUGGESTS LESS IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...WILL CARRY LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE PEE
DEE REGION...CHANCE ON SAT AND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
COAST...MAINLY LIKELY. WILL THEN TREND POPS LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR STRUGGLES TO MAKE
INROADS THIS FAR EAST. THAT BEING SAID...CAN NOT KEEP MENTION OF
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND STILL EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER.
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL SHRINK THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
RETROGRADES AND DEVELOPS INTO A LARGER SYSTEM OVER TEXAS. THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THIS
LOW PHASES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND MOVES TO THE
EAST ALONG WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE EACH DAY
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN SYSTEMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY POPS
DROP CONSIDERABLY BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO ADDRESS
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. NO REAL
HEADLINERS OR DRAMATIC CHANGES FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...BROAD UPPER LOW QUITE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH NORTHWEST INTO TENNESSEE. A BROAD BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THAT THIS LARGE BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL ONLY AFFECT THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A VCSH MENTION WOULD LIKELY SUFFICE
FOR ALL TERMINALS...BUT THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO AT ONE OR MORE OF THE TERMINALS. NEAR IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BECOME SOLIDLY IFR AS WE HEAD FURTHER INTO THE
EVENING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATURDAY...IFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO
MVFR...WITH STILL A THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. AGAIN
IF WE HEAT UP WITH SOME SOLAR INSOLATION...MORE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.
CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
LATEST WIND GUSTS ARE STILL EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS ALONG THE BEACHES
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. WE`RE REALLY MISSING THAT WAVE HEIGHT DATA
FROM THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY (NOAA ID 41038) WHICH
WAS DAMAGED BY A FISHING BOAT A MONTH OR SO AGO. LATEST HRRR AND
RUC STILL HAVE THE TRENDS RIGHT AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE FORECAST. I DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO 15-20 KT SUSTAINED
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SIGNS THAT A NOCTURNAL NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE IS TAKING SHAPE AGAIN BETWEEN CAPE FEAR AND CAPE LOOKOUT.
FOR EACH OF THE PAST THREE NIGHTS WIND SPEEDS HAVE ACCELERATED
WELL BEYOND MODEL FORECASTS AT ALL COASTAL OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
IN ONSLOW BAY. I HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEED FORECASTS TO A SOLID 15
KNOTS IN THIS AREA WITH SEAS HOLDING AT A CHOPPY 4 FEET. SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT SHOULD PREDOMINATE WITH
SEAS 2-4 FEET. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS
COMPRESSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT UP AGAINST A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY IN CANADA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS VERY
LIGHT...BUT A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS COULD
DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AT ALMOST ANY TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST NEAR THE
WATERS AND MAY OSCILLATE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH HEATING. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY...ENE TO ESE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE WATERS AND THIS SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS
NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE SWELL ENERGY AND WITH THAT...SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5
FT THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND THE SYNOPTIC DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE DOWN INTO THE AREA. THE
WEAKLY FORCED WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIRECTION TURNING TO EASTERLY AND POSSIBLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. ALL SPEEDS SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER
END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...HIGH TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON
AND NORTHEAST WINDS REACHED 5.99 FEET MLLW AT WRIGHTSVILLE
BEACH...7.39 FEET MLLW AT MYRTLE BEACH...AND 5.82 FEET MLLW AT
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON ON THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. TIDES WILL REMAIN
HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH EACH OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1232 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PRETTY STABLE SITUATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WESTERN EDGE OF LOWER
CLOUDS THAT MOVED BACK WEST LAST EVENING LOCATED NEAR BAUDETTE TO
BEMIDJI TO PARK RAPIDS. THE WESTERN EDGE HASNT MOVED MUCH SINCE
06Z AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROG. SOUTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS IN THE RRV AND ERN ND KEEPING TEMPS QUITE MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME CIRRUS MOVING OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THRU THE AREA...THOUGH MORE SCATTERED AND THIN.
TODAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AND IT WILL BE WINDY. 925 MB WINDS PICK
UP TO 35 TO 40 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY MIDDAY-AFTN. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND CURRENT SFC PATTERN FAVORS HIGHEST WINDS TODAY IN THE NRN
VALLEY...CENTERED ON HALLOCK TO WINNIPEG. BASED ON HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS GIVEN BY GFS MOS AND LAV MOS GUIDANCE...ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY 17Z-00Z FOR THE NRN RRV. WINDS ELSEWHERE LOOK TO HOLD
JUST SHY OF ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES TODAY BUT
OTHERWISE ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF IN THE FAR EAST....LOTS OF
SUN TODAY. WENT WITH A BIT WARMER GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS 80-84 IN
RRV AND ERN ND.
WINDS TO HOLD UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
NW ND/SW MANITOBA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO ALONG
THE INTL BORDER AND INTO CANADA. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2. SOME WEAK CAPE AND SHOWALTERS AROUND
ZERO AND SPC DAY 2 T-STORM OUTLOOK ALL LEAD TO MENTION OF ISOLD
THUNDER IN NW MN/NRN RRV SUN AFTN. OVERALL THOUGH A MINOR PRECIP
EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH. CONSENSUS FROM 00Z MODELS IS NOW TO
KEEP ALL PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. THUS COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES LED TO REMOVAL OF ANY
POPS MON-MON NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY WELL
BRING A FROST TO SOME AREAS AS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY WELL BE
PRETTY COMMON IN NE ND/NW MN. LEFT OUT FROST WORDING FOR NOW AS SO
MANY VARIABLES AT PLAY YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHEST RRV
WESTWARD...WITH WINDS REMAINING BREEZY TO GUSTY TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KDVL SUNDAY MORNING...AND APPROACH
KGFK/KTVF/KFAR NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1012 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND GRIGGS COUNTY. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 40KT TO MIX
EFFICIENTLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH AT
TIMES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PRETTY STABLE SITUATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WESTERN EDGE OF LOWER
CLOUDS THAT MOVED BACK WEST LAST EVENING LOCATED NEAR BAUDETTE TO
BEMIDJI TO PARK RAPIDS. THE WESTERN EDGE HASNT MOVED MUCH SINCE
06Z AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROG. SOUTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS IN THE RRV AND ERN ND KEEPING TEMPS QUITE MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME CIRRUS MOVING OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THRU THE AREA...THOUGH MORE SCATTERED AND THIN.
TODAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AND IT WILL BE WINDY. 925 MB WINDS PICK
UP TO 35 TO 40 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY MIDDAY-AFTN. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND CURRENT SFC PATTERN FAVORS HIGHEST WINDS TODAY IN THE NRN
VALLEY...CENTERED ON HALLOCK TO WINNIPEG. BASED ON HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS GIVEN BY GFS MOS AND LAV MOS GUIDANCE...ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY 17Z-00Z FOR THE NRN RRV. WINDS ELSEWHERE LOOK TO HOLD
JUST SHY OF ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES TODAY BUT
OTHERWISE ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF IN THE FAR EAST....LOTS OF
SUN TODAY. WENT WITH A BIT WARMER GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS 80-84 IN
RRV AND ERN ND.
WINDS TO HOLD UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
NW ND/SW MANITOBA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO ALONG
THE INTL BORDER AND INTO CANADA. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2. SOME WEAK CAPE AND SHOWALTERS AROUND
ZERO AND SPC DAY 2 T-STORM OUTLOOK ALL LEAD TO MENTION OF ISOLD
THUNDER IN NW MN/NRN RRV SUN AFTN. OVERALL THOUGH A MINOR PRECIP
EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH. CONSENSUS FROM 00Z MODELS IS NOW TO
KEEP ALL PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. THUS COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES LED TO REMOVAL OF ANY
POPS MON-MON NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY WELL
BRING A FROST TO SOME AREAS AS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY WELL BE
PRETTY COMMON IN NE ND/NW MN. LEFT OUT FROST WORDING FOR NOW AS SO
MANY VARIABLES AT PLAY YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
VFR THRU THE FCST PD. LOW CLOUDS EXITING BEMIDJI AT 12Z. SOUTH
WINDS TO TAKE CONTROL TODAY AND INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN ND. SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT. WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN GUSTY INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OF THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA....SO UPDATED
SKY COVER TO REFLECT FASTER CLEARING. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKY
THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PRETTY STABLE SITUATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WESTERN EDGE OF LOWER
CLOUDS THAT MOVED BACK WEST LAST EVENING LOCATED NEAR BAUDETTE TO
BEMIDJI TO PARK RAPIDS. THE WESTERN EDGE HASNT MOVED MUCH SINCE
06Z AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROG. SOUTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS IN THE RRV AND ERN ND KEEPING TEMPS QUITE MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME CIRRUS MOVING OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THRU THE AREA...THOUGH MORE SCATTERED AND THIN.
TODAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AND IT WILL BE WINDY. 925 MB WINDS PICK
UP TO 35 TO 40 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY MIDDAY-AFTN. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND CURRENT SFC PATTERN FAVORS HIGHEST WINDS TODAY IN THE NRN
VALLEY...CENTERED ON HALLOCK TO WINNIPEG. BASED ON HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS GIVEN BY GFS MOS AND LAV MOS GUIDANCE...ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY 17Z-00Z FOR THE NRN RRV. WINDS ELSWHERE LOOK TO HOLD JUST
SHY OF ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES TODAY BUT OTHERWISE
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF IN THE FAR EAST....LOTS OF SUN TODAY.
WENT WITH A BIT WARMER GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS 80-84 IN RRV AND ERN
ND.
WINDS TO HOLD UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
NW ND/SW MANITOBA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO ALONG
THE INTL BORDER AND INTO CANADA. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2. SOME WEAK CAPE AND SHOWWALTERS AROUND
ZERO AND SPC DAY 2 T-STORM OUTLOOK ALL LEAD TO MENTION OF ISOLD
THUNDER IN NW MN/NRN RRV SUN AFTN. OVERALL THOUGH A MINOR PRECIP
EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH. CONSENSUS FROM 00Z MODELS IS NOW TO
KEEP ALL PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. THUS COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES LED TO REMOVAL OF ANY
POPS MON-MON NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY WELL
BRING A FROST TO SOME AREAS AS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY WELL BE
PRETTY COMMON IN NE ND/NW MN. LEFT OUT FROST WORDING FOR NOW AS SO
MANY VARIABLES AT PLAY YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
VFR THRU THE FCST PD. LOW CLOUDS EXITING BEMIDJI AT 12Z. SOUTH
WINDS TO TAKE CONTROL TODAY AND INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN ND. SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT. WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN GUSTY INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ007-008-016-026-027-029-030-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001-004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
342 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PRETTY STABLE SITUATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WESTERN EDGE OF LOWER
CLOUDS THAT MOVED BACK WEST LAST EVENING LOCATED NEAR BAUDETTE TO
BEMIDJI TO PARK RAPIDS. THE WESTERN EDGE HASNT MOVED MUCH SINCE
06Z AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROG. SOUTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS IN THE RRV AND ERN ND KEEPING TEMPS QUITE MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME CIRRUS MOVING OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THRU THE AREA...THOUGH MORE SCATTERED AND THIN.
TODAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AND IT WILL BE WINDY. 925 MB WINDS PICK
UP TO 35 TO 40 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY MIDDAY-AFTN. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND CURRENT SFC PATTERN FAVORS HIGHEST WINDS TODAY IN THE NRN
VALLEY...CENTERED ON HALLOCK TO WINNIPEG. BASED ON HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS GIVEN BY GFS MOS AND LAV MOS GUIDANCE...ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY 17Z-00Z FOR THE NRN RRV. WINDS ELSWHERE LOOK TO HOLD JUST
SHY OF ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES TODAY BUT OTHERWISE
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF IN THE FAR EAST....LOTS OF SUN TODAY.
WENT WITH A BIT WARMER GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS 80-84 IN RRV AND ERN
ND.
WINDS TO HOLD UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
NW ND/SW MANITOBA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO ALONG
THE INTL BORDER AND INTO CANADA. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2. SOME WEAK CAPE AND SHOWWALTERS AROUND
ZERO AND SPC DAY 2 T-STORM OUTLOOK ALL LEAD TO MENTION OF ISOLD
THUNDER IN NW MN/NRN RRV SUN AFTN. OVERALL THOUGH A MINOR PRECIP
EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH. CONSENSUS FROM 00Z MODELS IS NOW TO
KEEP ALL PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. THUS COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES LED TO REMOVAL OF ANY
POPS MON-MON NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY WELL
BRING A FROST TO SOME AREAS AS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY WELL BE
PRETTY COMMON IN NE ND/NW MN. LEFT OUT FROST WORDING FOR NOW AS SO
MANY VARIABLES AT PLAY YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
NEW TAF SET CONTINUES TO HAVE LIFR CIGS AT KBJI THROUGH 15Z.
LATEST HRRR MODEL TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT OF KBJI BEFORE
15Z...BUT NEW NAM MOS BREAKS IT OUT BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.
OTHERWISE...WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT KTVF
AND WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROGRESSION OF SEVERAL MID LEVEL
RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLETS INDICATED DURING OUR EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD AS MEAN FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. BEST CHCS FOR PCPN
WOULD APPEAR TO BE ON WED AND FRI AS SHORTWVS MEANDER THROUGH.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...OFFERING DRY WEATHER
WITH LOWS IN THE FROSTY 30S RECOVERING TO AFTN HIGHS CLOSE TO
SEASONAL. BY THURS ABV AVG VALUES ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE UNDER
SHORTWV RIDGE AS A BROADER UPSTREAM TROUGH LURKS OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION POISED TO POUNCE ON NORTHERN PLAINS BY END OF
PERIOD/FRI.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ007-008-016-026-027-029-030-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001-004-007.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1234 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...KEEPING SOUTHERLY
WIND SPEEDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH MOST AREAS WITH 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH AT MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS WERE
KEEPING THE SURFACE LAYER WELL MIXED...WITH VERY MILD CONDITIONS AT
MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO
MAINTAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
GRADUALLY. ADJUSTED EXPECTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A TAD...BUT
STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THOSE
LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING SOMEWHAT AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NE/SD
BORDER. THE NAM MODEL INDICATES SUFFICIENT MOVEMENT NORTHWARD OR
FORMATION OF CLOUDS...BUT THE LATEST HRRR ITERATION WOULD SUGGEST
ONLY A HINT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE JAMES
VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG FORMATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. SCATTERED CIRRUS
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
CLOUDS FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE
SHOWN NO PROGRESSION NORTHWARD AS OF YET. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME LOW STRATUS MAKING IT UP INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL ND
TOWARD MORNING. BUT AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING THE WIDESPREAD
FOG/STRATUS WE EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH OVERNIGHT EXPECT MILD LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PROVIDING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS SKIRTING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST
MONTANA WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BRINGING AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH A SURFACE FLOW REMAINING
AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH. MOISTURE FROM A FILLING UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ADVECTED NORTH TONIGHT AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE OTHER THAN
ADJUSTING SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPDATING
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MAIN ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY. IN SITU MOISTURE FROM A WEAK UPPER LOW
MEANDERING ABOUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA AND NEBRASKA
WILL GET PULLED NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS DEPICTED
BY THE NAM/GFS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AFTER SUNSET MORE
OF THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH. ADDED CLOUDS TONIGHT SOUTH
CENTRAL SUFFICIENT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY BUT WILL MEED TO MONITOR. ON
SATURDAY AN H850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL LIKELY SEE 90 DEGREES SOUTHWEST...AND MID TO UPPER
80S MOST OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. THIS CURRENTLY IS BELOW
RECORD HIGHS BY ABOUT 3 TO 7 DEGREES BUT WILL BE A WARM LATE
SEPTEMBER DAY. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM MIGRATES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL STEER SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
WAVES THROUGH THE LOCAL REGION...GIVING US A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE JET ITSELF WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER/EARLY OCTOBER IN THE 70S. AS THE UPPER JET EXITS
THE REGION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH.
TEMPERATURE MODERATE WED-FRI WITH RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH AT KDIK. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH WINDS NEAR 2000 FT AGL AROUND 40
KNOTS...THUS KEPT THE WIND SHEAR GROUP AT KISN WITH SOUTH WINDS OF
AROUND 8-12 KTS AT THE SURFACE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS SATURDAY MORNING. THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG SEEMS
UNLIKELY...BUT A STRATUS CLOUD DECK FORMING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT A SCATTERED LAYER AROUND 1000 FT AT KDIK
AND KBIS AROUND 09Z-15Z WITH A TEMPO GROUP WITH LIGHT FOG AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST TRENDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON - WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
EXPANDED LOW CLOUDS FROM BEMIDJI TO PARK RAPIDS FURTHER WEST INTO
CLEARWATER...BECKER...AND OTTER TAIL COUNTIES. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
FOG/MIST WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS...WITH THICKER FOG
POSSIBLE AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
FRESHENED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT WITH THIS UPDATE...OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. LEANED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR/NAM MOS
DATA FOR SKY CONDITIONS IN THE EAST TONIGHT. ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG
IN THE PARTS OF THE FAR EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS...TEMPS AND LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE GFS THAT
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON MOISTURE FIELDS.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE LOW CLOUD/FOG FORMATION. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FOG PERHAPS
IN THE FAR EAST...FOR NOW HAVE NOT MENTIONED THIS BUT SOMETHING WE
WILL MONITOR THIS EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM WITH WINDS
AND VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS.
ON SATURDAY...IT WILL BE WARM AND WINDY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 OR
PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE LOW 80S. THERE WILL BE 40KT TO MIX FROM
850MB FROM THE VALLEY WEST...SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY AFTERNOON.
FOR SAT NIGHT...IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTH. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OVERALL
COVERAGE...BUT SHOWALTERS TO GET SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SO A FEW
RUMBLES CAN/T BE RULED OUT. HAVE JUST MENTIONED SHOWERS FOR NOW
THOUGH GIVEN STRONG CAP AND LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.
FOR MONDAY...IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THRU THE FLOW BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PCPN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE DAKS/MN LATE MON INTO TUE
WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...BEFORE SHIFTING E AND RETURN FLOW
BRINGS THE START OF A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
NEW TAF SET CONTINUES TO HAVE LIFR CIGS AT KBJI THROUGH 15Z.
LATEST HRRR MODEL TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT OF KBJI BEFORE
15Z...BUT NEW NAM MOS BREAKS IT OUT BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.
OTHERWISE...WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT KTVF
AND WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
605 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST OFF
THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
INCREASING MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SE. THE
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH PRECIP SURVIVES THE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE HRRR SHOWS NO MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO THE CWA UNTIL
AT LEAST 06Z THEN A SURGE OF SCT LIGHT SHRA FOCUSED NNW UP THRU THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA TOWARD THE ISLANDS BY DAYBREAK. THE RAP
LATEST RUN NOW SHOWS NOTHING MEASURABLE UNTIL ABOUT 12Z. NOT LOOKING
FOR MUCH BUT BELIEVE IT DESERVES A MENTION. MAV LOWS WERE A FEW
DEGREES TOO LOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND WHILE OUR BIAS
GUIDANCE SHOULD BE CATCHING UP HAVE ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO TO LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS FROM YNG TO ERI DOWN TO LOW CHANCE POPS WEST.
MEANWHILE THE MAV IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CONSISTENT WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY AT MNN AND
FDY. DIFFERENCES PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WELL WITH
THE MET WETTER ON BALANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MAV WETTER MONDAY.
THROUGH MONDAY WILL GO WITH THE SREF KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES
TO THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER WEST. MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE
MOVES EAST SO WILL BACK OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE. TUESDAY MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THAT AND THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AND ADD THUNDER FOR THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LASTING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...LOWERING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE FAIRLY
MILD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT LOOKS RATHER DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT THE
COOLER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CLOUD
COVER TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
THEN DOMINATE THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE
BEYOND THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF STILL TRYING TO DIG AN UPPER LOW
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. INTERESTING HOW THIS SEEMS TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR
NOW.
IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT IT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN TAF SITES. THIS AREA OF SPRINKLES AND BRIEF SHOWERS WILL
THEN DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE SHOWERS IS LOW AND IF THEY DO OCCUR CONDITIONS WILL
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN AGAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN TAFS SITES ON SUNDAY. GUSTS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING. NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEAKENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DECREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES
BUILDING A BIT AND COULD HOVER CLOSE TO 4 FEET THROUGH 03Z. SO AGAIN
IT IS VERY CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SINCE IT LOOKS
TO BE SHORT LIVED WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL
DIRECT THE LARGER WAVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN SHORELINE. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE BUT IT IS NOT ALL THAT
COLD. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME LARGER WAVES FROM THE LONGER
FETCH OF THE WIND BUT AT THIS POINT WIND SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
MUCH OVER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
305 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST OFF
THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH
PRECIP SURVIVES THE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THIS TIME
THERE IS AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS IN SRN OHIO AND ERN KY THAT
APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS DRY.
THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE ANY SHOWERS REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WILL BEGIN
THE EVENING DRY AND THEN BRING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE SOUTH
MID EVENING. OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE POPS INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE CENTRAL
LAKESHORE. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH BUT BELIEVE IT DESERVES A MENTION.
MAV LOWS WERE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER AND WHILE OUR BIAS GUIDANCE SHOULD BE CATCHING UP WILL ADD
A DEGREE OR TWO TO LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS FROM YNG TO ERI DOWN TO LOW CHANCE POPS WEST.
MEANWHILE THE MAV IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CONSISTENT WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY AT MNN AND
FDY. DIFFERENCES PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WELL WITH
THE MET WETTER ON BALANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MAV WETTER MONDAY.
THROUGH MONDAY WILL GO WITH THE SREF KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES
TO THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER WEST. MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE
MOVES EAST SO WILL BACK OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE. TUESDAY MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THAT AND THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AND ADD THUNDER FOR THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LASTING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...LOWERING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE FAIRLY
MILD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT LOOKS RATHER DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT THE
COOLER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CLOUD
COVER TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
THEN DOMINATE THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE
BEYOND THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF STILL TRYING TO DIG AN UPPER LOW
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. INTERESTING HOW THIS SEEMS TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR
NOW.
IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT IT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN TAF SITES. THIS AREA OF SPRINKLES AND BRIEF SHOWERS WILL
THEN DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE SHOWERS IS LOW AND IF THEY DO OCCUR CONDITIONS WILL
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN AGAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN TAFS SITES ON SUNDAY. GUSTS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING. NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEAKENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DECREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES
BUILDING A BIT AND COULD HOVER CLOSE TO 4 FEET THROUGH 03Z. SO AGAIN
IT IS VERY CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SINCE IT LOOKS
TO BE SHORT LIVED WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL
DIRECT THE LARGER WAVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN SHORELINE. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE BUT IT IS NOT ALL THAT
COLD. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME LARGER WAVES FROM THE LONGER
FETCH OF THE WIND BUT AT THIS POINT WIND SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
MUCH OVER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1152 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OFF THE COAST AND WINDS ARE MORE-SOUTHERLY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY...THEN
STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1015 PM UPDATE...
AS EXPECTED...THE NRN TIER IS HAVING A GREAT EVENING WITH RESPECT
TO BEING ABLE TO SEE THE ECLIPSE. HOWEVER...CLOUDS ROLLED INTO
STATE COLLEGE JUST IN TIME TO BLOCK OUT A REALLY GOOD VIEW. JUST A
PASSING BREAK IN THE CLOUDS HERE AND THERE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THICKEN/LOWER/ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN THE NWRN COS SINCE THE HRRR AND CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS POINT TO A BLOSSOMING AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WRN PA SLIDING
UP INTO THEM FROM THE SSW. TEMPS ARE RIGHT ON TRACK.
645 PM UPDATE...
MOST OF THE CLOUDS HAVE BRIEFLY DISSIPATED OVER THE NRN HALF OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MORE-CONTINUOUS AND LOW-BASED CLOUD COVER
IS SPREADING IT/S WAY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL PA. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND MAY MAKE THE VIEWING OF THE ECLIPSE DIFFICULT FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. IT IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY THAT THE SRN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO ENTIRELY CLOUDY AND ONLY A FEW CRACKS IN
THE CLOUDS WILL APPEAR TO CATCH A BRIEF GLIMPSE OF THE
MOON/ECLIPSE. RIGHT ALONG THE NY BORDER STILL LOOKING LIKE THE
PART OF CENTRAL PA WHICH COULD HAVE A DECENT VIEW OF THE ECLIPSE.
BUT THE CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER DECKS AROUND
3KFT. WHILE THE HIGHER CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 12KFT MAY BE THIN ENOUGH
TO SEE THROUGH AT TIMES...THE LOWER CLOUDS ARE MORE OPAQUE. A FEW
SPRINKLES ALONG THE MD BORDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. ON
THE WHOLE...JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SKY FCST.
PREV...
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS
IN REDUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NY STATE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS WV AND VA LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE ANOMALOUS ESE
FLOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS GOING. HRRR
NOW SHOWS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MY CWA THIS
EVENING OVER WV AND VA. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS REMAINS ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO THIS EVENING.
DESPITE THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A MAINLY DRY FCST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...WHERE SFC RIDGE AND LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL LIE. LINGERING
FETCH INTO THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL KEEP A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY THERE...BUT IT WILL BE LIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL KEEP
THINGS MILDER NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MINS WITH MINS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OFFSHORE HIGH RETREATS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WITH EASTERLY
FETCH DECREASING AS A RESULT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME INCREASES
OVER PA AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. FORCING
REMAINS WEAK ON MONDAY...BUT THE SERLY LOW LVL FLOW AND ASSOC
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL KEEP THINGS CLOUDY FOR MOST. WEAK UPPER
TROF APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS...ESP ACROSS THE WEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID SHIFT DID EDGE POPS UP SOME FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK. THUS DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THIS PART OF
THE FCST.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS DOWN JUST A LITTLE ON THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN EDGES.
FIRST PROBLEM IS THE COLD FRONT FOR LATE TUE. DID UP POPS TO
LIKELY. AS NOTED YESTERDAY...KEY TO FCST THE RATHER DRY AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA THE LAST FEW DAYS. ANYWAY...NOT SOLD
ON A LOT OF RAIN. MODELS HINT AT SOME MODERATE QPF. WILL HAVE TO
ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT/PW AIR IN FROM THE SE COAST TO GET MUCH
RAIN. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW.
LATER WED AND THU STILL LOOK MAINLY DRY.
FOR FRIDAY AND SAT...MODELS SHOW A LOW BACKING IN FROM THE
COAST...AND A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS TRY
TO PHASE THE LONGWAVE ENERGY WITH A WARM CORE LOW. A LOT OF SPREAD
IN SOLUTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WOULD TAKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO THE NE
BY LATER SAT. FOR NOW...LEFT SUNDAY DRY.
NOT LOOKING AT FROST AT THIS POINT...BUT SOME RATHER COLD
AIR WELL NORTH OF PA WITH SFC HIGH.
ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO LATE WEEK
RAIN...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS TAKING TUMBLE
AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE. NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
TEMPS AOB CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LLVL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE FLOWS GRADUALLY VEERS FROM FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WITHIN ABOUT THE LOWEST 5 KFT AGL. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
LAYERS OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE OTHERWISE EXPANDING/LOWERING DECK OF
STRATO CU AND STRATUS.
THE CURRENT MAINLY MVFR STRATO CU/STRATUS DECK EXTENDING FROM KBFD
TO KUNV AND KAOO HAS LOWERED TO IFR ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE
SWRN THIRD-HALF OF PENN.
AREAS OF IFR CIGS /WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED -SHRA/ WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS OF PENN LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJST WHERE THE SERLY LLVL
UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF
GENERALLY 5-10MPH.
LOW CIGS PERSIST INTO MON...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT
BEING OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. CONDITIONS COULD STAY IN THE
LOW MVFR /OR EVEN UPPER IFR/ RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NW
HALF OF OUR FCST AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND.
OUTLOOK...
MON...INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN/LOW CIGS...FOCUSED
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MTNS OF PENN.
TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS LIKELY...ESP NW HALF.
TUE NIGHT...LOW CIGS/SCT SHOWERS.
WED...LOW CIGS NW MTNS EARLY. CHC SHOWERS SOUTH.
THU...NO SIG WX.
FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1058 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY
AND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO SUN AS A DEEP WESTERN
NOAM TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LEE SIDE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF CAA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. NORTHERN STEAM TROUGH
AND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ENOUGH LIFT FOR A
FEW SHRA SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE...DRY WX WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION.
TODAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS LL MOISTURE
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
ALL PLACES WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS. EXPECTED
SOUTHERN WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 AT
TIMES...ESP OVER CENTRAL SD. WARMER DAY FORECAST ALL
PLACES...WARMEST ON THE WY PLAINS WHERE PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL
RIDGE AND DEEP MIXING ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT 90S.
TONIGHT...SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED GIVEN ONGOING PRESSURE FALLS. DOWNSLOPING AND
RESULTANT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT WARM CONDS IN THE LEE OF
THE BLACK HILLS...ESP THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE SUNDAY WITH COOLER
CONDS EXPECTED ALL BUT SCENTRAL SD WHERE TIMING OF THE THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT WARMER HIGHS THAN SAT. LINGERING LL MOISTURE/DIURNAL
HEATING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERN HILLS EDDY CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/TS OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL BLACK HILLS...BUT
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY PROGS AND LACK OF MODEL SUPPORT...HAVE LEFT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY THERE. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BULK OF LSA AND FGEN ARRIVE...COUPLED
WITH THE RR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT IN LINE WITH MODEL TRENDS. MUCH COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...ESP WHERE RAIN AND RESULTANT WETBULBING
OCCURS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
WRLY UPPER FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT-WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE
REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
THE BEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECM ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF WAVES. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A POTENTIALLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK. DROPPED MAX TEMPS QUITE A BIT MONDAY AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE
DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED TOWARD MIDWEEK AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK AS CHANCES OF PRECIP INCREASE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL SD PLAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING NERN WY/NWRN SD AROUND 06Z.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE WRN SD PLAINS
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...BUNKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
248 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY
AND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO SUN AS A DEEP WESTERN
NOAM TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LEE SIDE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF CAA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. NORTHERN STEAM TROUGH
AND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ENOUGH LIFT FOR A
FEW SHRA SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE...DRY WX WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION.
TODAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS LL MOISTURE
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
ALL PLACES WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS. EXPECTED
SOUTHERN WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 AT
TIMES...ESP OVER CENTRAL SD. WARMER DAY FORECAST ALL
PLACES...WARMEST ON THE WY PLAINS WHERE PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL
RIDGE AND DEEP MIXING ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT 90S.
TONIGHT...SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED GIVEN ONGOING PRESSURE FALLS. DOWNSLOPING AND
RESULTANT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT WARM CONDS IN THE LEE OF
THE BLACK HILLS...ESP THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE SUNDAY WITH COOLER
CONDS EXPECTED ALL BUT SCENTRAL SD WHERE TIMING OF THE THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT WARMER HIGHS THAN SAT. LINGERING LL MOISTURE/DIURNAL
HEATING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERN HILLS EDDY CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/TS OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL BLACK HILLS...BUT
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY PROGS AND LACK OF MODEL SUPPORT...HAVE LEFT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY THERE. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BULK OF LSA AND FGEN ARRIVE...COUPLED
WITH THE RR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT IN LINE WITH MODEL TRENDS. MUCH COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...ESP WHERE RAIN AND RESULTANT WETBULBING
OCCURS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
WRLY UPPER FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT-WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE
REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
THE BEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECM ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF WAVES. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A POTENTIALLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK. DROPPED MAX TEMPS QUITE A BIT MONDAY AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE
DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED TOWARD MIDWEEK AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK AS CHANCES OF PRECIP INCREASE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
933 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING WAS TO SLOW THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAINFALL. THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD
GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SPREADING NORTH BUT THE RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS BEEN RELEGATED WELL SOUTH THUS FAR. TIME-
HEIGHTS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL NOT REACH AREAS ALONG I-40 UNTIL
LATE MONDAY MORNING...THEREFORE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
THIS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
TVT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING TO APPROACH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI SOUTH OF TUPELO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 PM
CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE TEXAS
GULF COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MID SOUTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WEAKENS AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LONG TERM RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES PERSIST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS GFS/ECMWF MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO DEPTH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH AXIS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THUS...WILL GO WITH A
PRECIPITATION FREE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM UNTIL MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
CJC
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST TX
COAST. MVFR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FIRST AT TUP THIS EVENING...AND
MEM/MKL/JBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHRA AND MVFR FROM EARLIER
SOLUTIONS AND 00Z TAFS REFLECT THIS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
649 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR CORPUS
CHRISTI TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING TO APPROACH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI SOUTH OF TUPELO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 3 PM
CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE TEXAS
GULF COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MID SOUTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WEAKENS AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ALSO RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LONG TERM RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES PERSIST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS GFS/ECMWF MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO DEPTH
OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH AXIS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THUS...WILL GO WITH A
PRECIPITATION FREE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM UNTIL MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST TX
COAST. MVFR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FIRST AT TUP THIS EVENING...AND
MEM/MKL/JBR DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED DELAYING THE ONSET OF SHRA AND MVFR FROM EARLIER
SOLUTIONS AND 00Z TAFS REFLECT THIS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF QUICKLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN OK/WEST TX REGION. THIS TROF HAS BROUGHT WITH IT
A COOL FRONT AS WELL AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ARE CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN DRIVEN MORE SO BY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT DUE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES CAUSED BY THE
OVERHEAD TROF. AIR COOLED RAIN IN ADDITION TO CLOUD COVER HAVE KEPT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS RATHER COOL WITH CHILDRESS SHOWING A
TEMP OF 71F AS OF 19Z. TEMPS IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE MUCH CLEARER
AND ARE AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT HAVE REACHED INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED ALONG A LINE FROM DIMMITT TO
POST COMPLETELY DISSECTING THE CITY OF LUBBOCK. ONE OF THE MAIN
QUESTIONS WITH THE FRONT IS THE POSSIBILITY/DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
GARZA COUNTY WHILE MOST STORMS HAVE STAYED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA.
SOME LIGHT ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN AND AROUND
THE LUBBOCK AREA...EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS DIMMITT...BUT HAVE YET TO DO
MORE THAN SPIT A DROP OR TWO OF RAIN. CU FIELD ON VIS IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE TROF CONTINUES TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP ARE SHOWING THIS WELL
AND...ALONG WITH THE HRRR...DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT BY
20Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD BY
THE EARLY EVENING AS THE TROF PUSHES AWAY LEAVING THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AS LIGHT RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PREVENT ANY DECENT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON/S TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY/S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
WHO SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...
A DRY AND MILD FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
MEXICO VERY GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WE/LL SEE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY THOUGH WHICH SHOULD HELP
KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE AUGUST...HIGHS
IN THE 80S SHOULD BE THE RULE. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND THIS MAY HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S RANGE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE GREATLY BY NEXT WEEKEND...DUE TO THEIR DIFFERENCE IN
HANDLING OF THE FAIRLY VIGOROUS TROUGH AS IT EMERGES INTO THE
PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WEST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A COLD FRONT COULD BE SENT INTO THE AREA OR THE
COLD AIR COULD REMAIN BOTTLED UP TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 53 82 56 84 / 10 0 0 0
TULIA 58 83 57 84 / 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 59 83 57 85 / 10 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 58 85 58 85 / 20 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 59 84 60 86 / 20 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 58 85 57 85 / 20 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 59 85 59 86 / 20 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 64 87 63 89 / 20 0 0 0
SPUR 63 86 61 87 / 20 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 64 89 63 89 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/33
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
951 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND LEAD TO CONTINUED WIDESPREAD RAIN OR DRIZZLE
UNDER GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST REGION BY MIDWEEK...POSSIBLY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 951 PM EDT SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHEAST WIND. AT THE
SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH DEEP
MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND
FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HEAVIER BANDS OF
RAIN ARE DEVELOPING AND LIFT NORTH. RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE
ENHANCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. TEMPERATURES
RUNNING COOLER IN SEVERAL AREAS THIS EVENING WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS.
SHAPED THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR POPS TOWARDS HIRESW-ARW-
EAST...RUC AND HRRR WITH THE AXIS ON THE WEST. INCREASED QPF FOR
TONIGHT ALONG SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WITH
SATURATED GROUNDS...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS OF 650 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM CURRENT
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN
FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHEAST WINDFLOW
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED BANDS OF RAIN.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE...REMAINING HEAVIEST/MOST PERSISTENT
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS
WILL AMPLIFY RAINFALL INTENSITY. AS SUCH...MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT ALLOW
FOR MUCH COOLING OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOW 60S.
RAINFALL WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
WEAKENS...AND ONSHORE FLOW OF MOISTURE DIMINISHES...MAKING
MOISTURE MORE SHALLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THAT STATED...EXPECT WE
WILL STILL SEE SPOTTY BANDS OF RAIN MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW...PERSISTENT
AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND OTHER EAST FACING SLOPES. NEEDLESS TO SAY...DO NOT
EXPECT WE WILL SEE CLOUDS BREAK OUT ANYWHERE OUTSIDE OF WESTERN
TAZEWELL COUNTY...WHERE A FEW RAYS OF SUNSHINE MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...WITH LESS RAINFALL EXPECTED...
BELIEVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER...ALTHOUGH BELOW
THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE RIDGES...TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY IN THE EARLY TO MID-WEEK
PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST MAINTAINING VERY MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
SEMBLANCE OF A WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. SUN SEEKERS SHOULD DEFINITELY LOOK ELSEWHERE AS
OVERCAST SKIES AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARE VERY LIKELY TO PERSIST
RIGHT INTO MID-WEEK AND BEYOND. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
MIDWEST AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
ORGANIZED RAINFALL AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODEL QPFS PER EURO/GFS RANGE FROM 1 TO 3+ INCHES FROM
LATE MONDAY INTO LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH SUGGESTS A POSSIBILITY FOR
RIVER FLOODING (SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW) ACROSS BASINS WHICH HAVE
BECOME MUCH MORE SATURATED WITH THIS WEEKENDS RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL
HAVE NARROW DIURNAL RANGES DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER MAINLY FROM UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AT NIGHT TO UPPER 60S/LOW
70S IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL OFF THE EAST COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
WITH ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACT POSITIONING AND EFFECTS OF ANY
SUCH DEVELOPMENT...BUT 12Z GFS IS ACTUALLY QUITE WET ACROSS EVEN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY SO AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS ARE HELD IN THE GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY ALTHOUGH STILL
HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST AND TRENDING TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE FOR HIGHS AND MID 40S TO LOW
50S FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 723 PM EDT SUNDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND RAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE...AS REMNANTS FROM THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO DIP SOUTH
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO PUSH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INLAND...KEEPING CEILINGS LOW AND
THE AREA FAIRLY SATURATED.
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO IFR VARIABLE CEILINGS THROUGH THE 28/00Z TAF
PERIOD AREAWIDE...WITH VARIATIONS STEMMING FROM RAIN BANDS PASSING
OVERHEAD. VISIBILITY VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN VARIABLE. FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL
FURTHER REDUCE THE VISIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND
OTHER EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 25
KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGES. KLWB/KBLF WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
MINOR VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...SHIFTING
MAINLY FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN AND POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL PRODUCE LOCAL
LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FOR MONDAY...CEILINGS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IFR IN MOST
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER RAINFALL WILL BE MORE ON THE SCATTERED
SIDE...WITH LIGHTER INTENSITY EXPECTED AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA...MAKING MOISTURE MORE SHALLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE RAINFALL INTENSITY/AMOUNTS LOCALLY. FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL
STILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST FACING SLOPES.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
IFR/LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...IN ADDITION TO SPOTTY RAINFALL AND
POCKETS OF DRIZZLE. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE
TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN...AS
WELL AS SUB VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES INTO WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING WEDGE
MAY KEEP MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS HAVE CRESTED FOR THE MOST PART WITH
NOTHING HAVING REACHED EVEN ACTION STAGE DESPITE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 4
INCHES IN 72 HOURS AND UP TO 8 OR MORE INCHES OF IN ISOLATED PARTS
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL IN THE UPPER REACHES OF
THE DAN AND SMITH RIVER BASINS AND WHATEVER RUNOFF OCCURRED WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM. PHILPOTT RESERVOIR CAUGHT A SUBSTANTIAL
PORTION OF THE SMITH RIVER BASIN RUNOFF WITH THE RESERVOIR ELEVATION
CLIMBING OVER 2 FEET OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THE
DAN IS STILL RISING ALONG ITS ENTIRE REACH BUT IS STILL CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO CREST BELOW ACTION STAGE EVEN AT FLOOD-PRONE SOUTH
BOSTON. WITH MORE RAIN ON THE WAY SOME OF IT POSSIBLY HEAVY...
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER IN THE
WEEK IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO RIVER FORECASTS
AS THEY WILL LIKELY BE UPDATED FREQUENTLY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...KK/NF
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...AMS/PC
AVIATION...JM/KK/NF
HYDROLOGY...JH/MBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST. LINGERING ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
KEEP THINGS QUIET. SURFACE/925 FLOW STARTS TO TURN FROM THE EAST
MORE TO SOUTH OR SE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. WEAK VORT AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
FROM IN/OH INTO LWR MI. LLVL RH PROGS SHOW MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
FROM SE TO NW ACRS THE CWA ESP AFTER 6Z. THIS EVIDENT ON VSBL SATL
IMGRY ACRS SRN IL INTO IN AND OH WITH A NW DRIFT/EXPANSION OF THE
CLOUD SHIELD. THE NAM IS STILL A BIT FEISTY WITH FOG AND VRY LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST...ESP NEAR THE LAKE. GFS IS MUCH
DRIER. RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING SHALLOW SATURATION BY MID EVENING
...BRIEF ON THE RAP BUT LONGER ON THE NAM. DO HAVE FOG MENTIONED BUT
TIMING TRICKY ESP WITH CLOUD COVER ADVANCING FROM THE SE. MOS AND
SREF DO SHOW SPOTTY COVERAGE TO ANY DENSE POCKETS WITH OVERALL LESS
PROB OF DENSE THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE NEAR
THE LAKE MI SHORE WITH A MIDGE HIGHER DEW POINTS THERE IN THE U50S/L60S.
.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH AN OVERALL SRLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE EASTERN HIGH AND COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE LLVL MOISTURE PUSH NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER BUT FOR NOW
NOT SEEING THE FORCING OR DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY THE 20-35 POPS
BEING GENERATED BY MOS. SO WILL KEEP DRY FCST IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING ELEVATED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE INVERSION SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG. THE BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT SKIES WILL SCATTER/CLEAR OUT SUNDAY EVENING TO VIEW
THE LUNAR ECLIPSE. WITH LACK OF ANY UPWARD FORCING... I TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD LOWER SKY COVER. SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN SOUTHEAST WI.
SCATTERED SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 70S. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODELS FOR A DRY
FORECAST IN THE MKX AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN WI MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL
DUE TO A SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS WI WITHIN THE 850MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE THAT LAGS JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING... BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS STILL DIFFER.
EXPECTING ONLY A BRIEF TIME PERIOD FOR SHOWERS... SO AMOUNTS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY WEAK AND THE FRONT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT SO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH
EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY DURING THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH SMALL POPS LINGER IN THE FORECAST DUE TO A PREVIOUSLY
WETTER FORECAST. THEN AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT WI THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS OF THE MODELS LATER IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND... BUT THERE IS NO GOOD SIGNAL FOR A DECENT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...INLAND CU FILED TO DISSIPATE DIURNALLY WITH
SHORELINE STRATUS DECK NORTH OF KMKE GRADUALLY ERODING. SREF CIG/VIS
PROB PROG SHOWS BETTER FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT ACROSS NW CWA WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH WAVE RIDING NWWD FROM THE OH VLY. SOME MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ON SUNDAY. MET MOS/NAM SHOWING IFR CIG POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY MORNING THOUGH MOISTURE FIELDS MAY BE OVERDONE ON THE NAM.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE NEAR THE LAKE AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS
FOUND THERE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1134 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MUCH OF THE
REGION IS ABLE TO OBSERVE THE SUPERMOON ECLIPSE. THE HRRR MAY BE
OVERDOING THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE UINTA MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT. DO NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE THAT SHOWERS ARE FORMING ON SALT
LAKE`S RADAR OUR OURS...SO TEMPERED THE POP GRIDS A BIT IN THE
EVENING UPDATE. APPEARED THAT SHOWERS DID FORM ALONG THE NRN
BORDER OF DAGGETT COUNTY BEFORE SUNSET...BUT THESE HAVE SINCE
DISSIPATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AS A RESULT THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND CARRY A COUPLE
OF WEAK WAVES FROM WEST TO EAST...MAINLY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THE TAIL END OF ONE WAVE WILL BRUSH OUR NORTHERN EDGE
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT WE HAVE SEEN A BETTER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE UINTA...FLATTOPS AND PARK RANGES THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. OF MOST INTEREST FOR TONIGHT`S FORECAST WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF EXPECTED CLOUD COVER FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS
EVENING. IT APPEARS SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY FILTER THE VIEW FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE THIN. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM AROUND THE TAVAPUTS PLATEAU/FLATTOPS AND
NORTH...WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE A LITTLE THICKER. BUT EVEN THERE THE
MOON SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT VISIBLE. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO THE BETTER CLOUDS.
ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BRUSH THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT. THEREFORE A
FEW SHOWERS AND LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...
WITH LOWS INCREASING JUST A LITTLE MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE BRUSHES
THE FORECAST AREA. ON WED THE RIDGE WILL REBOUND ALONG THE UT/CO
BORDER...PUMPED UP BY THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST.
WHILE THE MID TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE BIG
PICTURE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN WHEN THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA...AND IN HOW QUICK THE
TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. IN ANY CASE...THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
WED AND THU AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ON
THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN.
THE ECMWF IS FASTER BY AROUND 12 HOURS...WITH THE COLD
FRONT JUST ABOUT TO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER AT 00Z FRI. THE EC ALSO
SHOWS THE LOW CENTER QUICKLY BRUSHING OUR NORTHERN EDGE EARLY
FRIDAY AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE THEN FOLLOWS FOR SUN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE GFS IS
AROUND 12 HOURS SLOWER...WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE NORTHWEST
CORNER AT AROUND 12Z FRI. IN THIS SOLUTION THE LOW CENTER WILL
MOVE OVER NE UT/NW CO/SW WY FRI EVENING...AND LINGER OVER
NORTHWEST CO THROUGH EARLY SAT. ENERGY THEN SPLITS OFF THE MAIN
LOW AND RETROGRADES...LEAVING GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER WY TO THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH SUN. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI AFTERNOON...WITH A DOWNTURN AFTER
THAT. EXPECT THAT THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADJUSTED AS
THIS SYSTEM NEARS AND MODEL SOLUTIONS EVOLVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 19Z MONDAY AND LINGER THROUGH 02Z MONDAY EVENING. STORMS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH AND ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE HOLDING IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SFC WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KTS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
521 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
...A CLOSE CALL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL COUNTIES FROM SARASOTA
NORTHWARD TO LEVY...
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY STAGNANT UPPER
LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN FEATURES OF NOTE HAVE NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW REMAINS CONFINED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA...AS IT RIDES UP AND OVER AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FURTHER TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH OVER OUR REGION IS QUITE COMPLEX. A DEEP TROUGH
ANCHORED BY A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW FEATURE OVER THE TEXAS COAST
REMAINS STALLED TO OUR WEST...WHILE THESE HEIGHT FALLS HAVE
PROMOTED A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
THE HEIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS ALLOWING A
DEEP...AND MOIST...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVING OVER OUR
HEADS...AND THE 28/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE AGAIN SAMPLED A
COLUMN WITH AN OVER 2" PW VALUE. THE MEASURED VALUE OF 2.12" IS
MORE THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF VALUES FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER.
PERIODIC WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
HAVE BEEN PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR CLUSTERS OF SHWRS/STORMS WORKING
ALONG/JUST OFF THE SUNCOAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES IS WEAK...THE DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN AND GENERAL WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS COMBINING TO PRODUCE
EFFICIENT CONVECTION AHEAD OF EACH IMPULSE.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS EMERGED OFF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW IS GENERALLY A LIGHT INFLOW FROM
THE EAST/ESE RIGHT NOW...BUT WILL BE VEERING TOWARD THE SOUTH TODAY
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF COAST. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW CONTINUES TO BE QUITE PROBLEMATIC
FOR OUR FORECAST. FOR SEVERAL DAYS THE NWP GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED
THIS SYSTEM WOULD PLACE THE FL WEST COAST ON THE VERY EDGE OF THE
BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WE WERE HOPING THAT AS
THE EVENT DREW NEAR...A TREND EAST OR WEST WOULD OCCUR...MAKING THE
FORECAST MORE DEFINITIVE TOWARD WET OR DRY. HOWEVER...THIS DEVIATION
TOWARD THE LEFT OR RIGHT HAS NOT OCCURRED IN THE SIMULATIONS...AND
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HOLDS ONTO THE "MIDDLE OF THE ROAD" TRACK AND
ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS RESULTS IN THE FORECAST
TODAY AGAIN BEING OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL...DUE TO THE
IMPLICATIONS THAT ONLY SMALL DEVIATIONS IN TRACK OR ORGANIZATION OF
THE LOW MAY HAVE FOR OUR LOCAL WEATHER (HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG
THE COAST VS. STAYING JUST OFFSHORE).
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS ABOVE...THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA
FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF. ALREADY SEEING LOTS OF
STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND THESE WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING. ALMOST ALL THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY CLOSE CALL AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT THE HEAVIER AND MORE PROLONGED RAINFALL REACHES THE
COAST OR STAYS JUST OFFSHORE. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS THAT IF THE
STORM TRACKS A BIT FURTHER EAST AND THE BANDS BECOME ESTABLISHED
ALONG THE COAST...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS VERY
HIGH...AND THE SQUALLS/BANDS ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST
DUE TO THE LIKELY TIGHT SPATIAL GRADIENT IN RAINFALL...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE HEFTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
COMBINED WITH ALREADY ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS...WARRANTS THE
ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH. THIS FLOOD WATCH IS FOR ONLY THE
COASTAL COUNTIES FROM SARASOTA NORTHWARD TO LEVY. PERHAPS WE WILL
LUCK OUT AND THE FLOODING TYPE RAINS TEASE US JUST OFFSHORE...AND
NEVER REALLY MAKE IT TO OUR LAND ZONES. WILL BE MONITORING RADAR
AND NWP GUIDANCE TRENDS. EVEN IF "HEAVY" RAINFALL TOTALS DO NOT
MATERIALIZE...THE RAIN CHANCES ARE GOING TO BE HIGH FOR THE REGION
DUE TO BOTH THE GULF LOW...AND THE HIGH COLUMN MOISTURE FORCING
DIURNALLY PRODUCED STORMS. THEREFORE...MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BANDS...MAY VERY WELL HAVE TO FURTHER INCREASE THESE RAIN CHANCES
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA WITH FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES. AT LEAST FOR NOW...MOST OF THE MORNING SHOULD BE ON THE
DRY SIDE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES. THE REAL THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL (IF IT MATERIALIZES) WILL BE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUN TODAY...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE STREAMING OVERHEAD ALL DAY...KEEPING OUR SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY. THESE CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN
THE 80S FOR MOST SPOTS TODAY.
THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE GIVES THE BEST PUSH OF RAIN/STORM
POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW INTO THE COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT.
THE HIGH POPS OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST. LATE TONIGHT...CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE COAST FROM TAMPA NORTHWARD
WILL FEATURE DECENT VALUES BETWEEN 20-25KTS OF 0-1KM AND 0-3KM
SHEAR. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR STORMS APPROACHING THE COAST VERY
CLOSELY...AS THIS SHEAR WILL HELP INDUCE SOME ROTATION/ENHANCED
UPDRAFTS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A SMALL
THREAT FOR A FEW WATERSPOUTS OR WEAK TORNADOES WITH STRONGER
STORM MOVING ASHORE. WILL BE WATCHING THIS POTENTIAL WITH LATER
GUIDANCE PACKAGES. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...AND HOPEFULLY ANY ROTATING STORM WILL BE ISOLATED IN
NATURE...AND REMAIN OFFSHORE.
TUESDAY THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE NEAR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY SHEAR OUT TO OUR NORTH. AS THE
LOW GOES BY OUR LATITUDES...THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
STILL VERY HIGH COLUMN MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO HELP PROMOTE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG WESTERN FLORIDA. THE BANDS
DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY AS THEY MAY BE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER...SMALLER SCALE CONVERGENCE ZONES
WOULD SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED TRAINING OF STORMS OVER
CERTAIN LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE DAY
TUESDAY...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THINGS MAY TRY TO DRY
OUT ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AFTER 18Z. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONTINUED
SHOWERS OFF THE GULF WILL BE FROM TAMPA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
SUNCOAST.
IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE A WETTING RAIN DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. HOWEVER...INLAND AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
MORE OF A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN OF PASSING SHOWER AND STORMS. IT IS
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE THREAT FOR PROLONGED RAIN LOOKS
HIGHEST. HAVE A GREAT MONDAY EVERYONE!
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
U/L TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY...WITH S/W
ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY REINFORCING
THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION. NEXT UPSTREAM S/W WILL DIG FURTHER WEST
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WILL KICK OUT THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH ZONAL U/L FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE U.S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST WEDNESDAY WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...WITH GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
PCPW VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PENINSULA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SIMILAR SET-
UP ON THURSDAY HOWEVER THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL LIFT SLOWLY OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH DRIER AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT ADVECTING DOWN THE
BACKSIDE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60S AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES...ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE THROUGH 15Z. THEREAFTER
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND STORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST
FOR ALL TAF SITES. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LONGER DURATION RAINFALL
WILL BE AT KTPA/KPIE/KSRQ AFTER 16Z. PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORMS
WILL MOVE ASHORE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS ACCOMPANYING THE BANDS.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW WILL REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS
AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. IN
ADDITION NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM SQUALL ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE WIND AND SEAS MY BE MORE ROUGH. THE
LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHTER WEST OR SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES AND MOST SPOTS WILL RECEIVE WETTING
RAINFALL BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND
LONGEST DURATION RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FOG POTENTIAL...
NO SIGNIFICANT FOG OR REDUCED VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 86 76 86 77 / 60 60 70 30
FMY 89 77 87 75 / 50 50 60 40
GIF 88 75 87 75 / 60 50 60 30
SRQ 85 78 85 77 / 60 70 70 30
BKV 86 74 86 74 / 70 60 70 30
SPG 86 77 85 78 / 60 70 70 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
331 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
...Flash Flood Watch Now in Effect for Parts of the Region...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 1 am EDT regional surface analysis, with the help of a midnight
ASCAT pass, showed an elongated cyclonic circulation centered
roughly 100 miles north of the Yucatan Peninsula. The nearest deep
moist convection remained 100 miles east of the ill-defined center,
owing to 30 KT of southwest shear over this region. There was
another weak low centered off the TX-LA coast, associated with a mid-
upper tropospheric low over east TX. A zone of frontogenesis
extended east of this low across central FL. Vapor imagery and upper
air data showed deep southerly flow from the western Caribbean Sea
through our forecast area, with precip water values 50% above climo.
The forecast challenge today isn`t will it rain, but how much. The
global models` highest QPF values are south and west of our forecast
area. While our local ensemble of Convection Allowing Models (ECAM)
show this as well to some degree, they still forecast high QPF
values across our FL zones. It appears that the global models are
precipitating out most of the tropospheric moisture along the
developing east-west frontal boundary, while the CAMs allow
convection to occur north of this boundary. The ECAM has shown
considerable skill at forecasting heavy rain events in our region
the past few years, and we have followed it closely for this
forecast. Based on this, we will issue a Flash Flood Watch for the
southern half of our forecast area. We are forecasting a storm total
of 2 to 4 inches in this region, but isolated amounts could reach
8 inches. The bulk of this rain will occur today and tonight.
The 0-1 km vertical bulk shear and SBCAPE will be sufficient for
relatively shallow, "mini-supercells" over the Gulf coastal waters
today, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and even isolated,
brief tornadoes. This threat will gradually spread to the coast and
just inland, but storms will likely become elevated in GA and AL,
where the threat is lower.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
The upper low near the northwest Gulf Coast will begin to move east
and open up during this period. The approaching surface low that has
garnered so much attention should lift northeast across the FL
Panhandle coast somewhere between Apalachicola and Pensacola Tuesday
morning. Categorical PoPs and areas of heavy rain will continue
through much of the night along with the flash flood threat,
particularly if we can get a north-south oriented band to set up.
The low will then further weaken as it tracks northeast across the
forecast area on Tuesday. This should end the flood threat. A cold
front will approach from the northwest on Wednesday maintaining PoPs
across the region, albeit lower than what we will see in the near
term.
.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
A long wave trough will remain over the Southeast through the end of
the work week and then pivot off to the northeast for the weekend.
The front will also finally push through the area by that time
setting us up for a classic October weekend, weather wise. Look for
negligible PoPs from Friday night onward with max temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s and mins in the lower 60s.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] GFS/NAM MOS continue to maintain IFR or lower
cigs through the period, while the HRRR and other high-resolution
NWP guidance have mainly MVFR levels. Our forecast is a compromise,
with predominantly low-end MVFR cigs (1-2k ft AGL) through the
period. Periods of light to moderate RA are expected at all
terminals, beginning at KECP early, eventually reaching KABY and
KVLD later this afternoon. Brief periods of heavy rain with IFR
vis/cigs as well as TSRA are also expected through tonight.
&&
.Marine...
We are still not quite getting into solid advisory conditions and
we will let the exercise caution headline take care of things for
the time being. Obviously if the approaching low gets stronger
than anticipated, advisories will become necessary.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Wet flag conditions are likely through Tuesday, making controlled
burns nearly impossible.
&&
.Hydrology...
For a QPF discussion, reference the near-term section above. With
the heaviest amounts predicted nearer to the coast, area rivers will
be able to handle this event without reaching flood stage given the
recent dry conditions. With current streamflows, we`d need several
inches of rain to get into the upper portions of many of the larger
rivers and streams to produce river flooding, which still do not
anticipate during this particular event.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 82 74 86 73 88 / 80 80 60 30 40
Panama City 81 75 83 75 85 / 100 80 50 30 40
Dothan 78 70 82 69 85 / 80 80 60 40 50
Albany 81 72 83 71 85 / 80 80 70 40 50
Valdosta 83 72 84 72 85 / 70 70 70 30 40
Cross City 85 74 85 75 86 / 80 70 70 30 40
Apalachicola 81 73 84 72 85 / 100 80 50 30 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR Calhoun-Central
Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-
Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-
Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-South
Walton-Washington.
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR Brooks-Decatur-
Grady-Lowndes-Seminole-Thomas.
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR Geneva-Houston.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1151 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Still a lot of clouds over the area but see some breaks in the
east. Not enough breaks to make me want to change the sky cover
forecast as still expecting mostly cloudy skies. If skies become
more partly cloudy later, then will have to update then...just not
yet. Overall forecast looks good this evening and see no reason to
update at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Cloud cover remains fairly extensive across the area today, with the
earlier breaks near the I-74 corridor quickly filling in late
morning with diurnal cumulus. A few showers have been tracking
northwest out of southern Illinois, associated with what is left of
the upper low over the Tennessee Valley.
Forecast soundings not really showing much in the way of clearing
this evening, with skies mainly partly to mostly cloudy. A feature
of interest is overnight, with the last few runs of the RAP showing
a surge of stratus advecting northeast into our area after midnight
and covering most of the state, along with some dense fog late in
the night. The latest NAM model favors more of a patchy fog
scenario, which would seem more likely given the lack of widespread
clearing plus not much of a wind field to advect the low clouds into
this area, so will continue with mention of patchy fog for now.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
While by no means certain at this point, a bit more clarity has
started to develop in the forecast for the remainder of the week.
Above normal temperatures are expected to linger for a couple more
days, then trend toward normal in the wake of Tuesday`s cold front,
with below normal temperatures possible by the weekend as some
degree of upper troffing develops across eastern North America. The
model consensus has also trended back toward a drier solution for
the week, with the best chances of rainfall occurring in the
vicinity of the frontal passage on Tuesday.
Maintained a very low chance for rainfall on Monday as weak
disturbances track northeast up the Ohio River Valley from the Gulf
of Mexico. However, the very modest forcing and instability support
little more than we are currently seeing across southern Illinois
today as far as coverage and intensity.
A cold front, currently extending from northern Ontario into the
central Plains, will sink southeast across the forecast area later
Monday night into Tuesday. This front will not have much going for
it as far as support for precipitation production. The best forcing
will remain across Canada with the faster upper-level flow, with the
best moisture bottled up with a system along the Gulf coast. So,
plan to keep PoPs on the low side with fropa, and it is entirely
possible that most locations will remain dry. However, this appears
to be our best shot for widespread rainfall this week.
A Canadian surface high builds into the area behind the cold front,
which should help shave several degrees of the daily max/min
temperatures. Aloft, the flow across North America is expected to
transition from mostly zonal to more of a troffy pattern. However,
exactly how the upper pattern will look by late week and how we`ll
get there is still very much up for debate. Model spread remain
significant, with the spaghetti plots looking much like a pile of
spaghetti. There does not appear to be a strong signal for rainfall
at any one time, although there is some consensus that it is
possible over the weekend. Expect the weekend to be more dry than
not, but there will certainly be some risk of rain. We`ll have to
see how the models eventually resolve the coming pattern shift to
pin point the threat better.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Still plenty of clouds around the area this evening and am
expecting them to continue overnight. Some breaks in the east and
northeast, but am expecting them to be filled in next couple of
hours after TAF issuance time. HiRes models continue to show lower
MVFR clouds and an increase in fog across the area, and this
seems somewhat reasonable given we had some light showers move
across the area earlier this evening. Guidance also gives IFR
clouds during early morning hours and since winds are lighter and
we have had some breaks in the clouds, dewpoints have come up so
believe this is possible. So will have MVFR cigs with some light
fog later tonight and add a TEMPO group for a few hours during the
morning with cigs below 1kft and vis below 2sm. Things should
improve during the later morning with VFR cigs around 4kft. Then
during the evening, expecting lower clouds to dissipate and just
have cirrus clouds. Winds will be southeast and then become
south to southwest tomorrow...then light and variable tomorrow
evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Auten
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ALONG
THE CNDN BORDER AS RATHER SHEARED SHRTWV STRETCHING FM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO NW ONTARIO HAS WEAKENED THE UPR RDG THAT HAS BEEN SO
PERSISTENT RECENTLY OVER ERN NAMERICA. THIS SHRTWV IS SUPPORTING A
SFC COLD FNT THAT IS MOVING E THRU WRN LK SUP EARLY THIS MRNG. SINCE
THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHEARED OUT AND THE MSTR INFLOW IN THE SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FNT IS RATHER MODEST...SHOWER COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING FNT IS RATHER LIMITED...WITH SCT COVERAGE LIMITED BY THE
HIER STABILITY/DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB. CLDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FNT ARE PUSHING THRU THE WRN CWA...BUT THERE IS AN
AXIS OF MOCLR SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL TO W OF SOME LO CLDS ACRS THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/APX
RAOBS. STEADY SW WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE KEEPING TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL NOT FAR FM 60 EVEN WHERE THE SKY IS MOCLR. LOOKING
FARTHER TO THE W...THE 00Z ABERDEEN SDAKOTA ROAB SHOWS A VERY DRY
AIRMASS IS UNDER SFC HI PRES RDG TRAILING THE SFC COLD FNT. BUT
FARTHER TO THE W...THERE IS AN AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS/SHOWERS/EVEN
SOME LTG STRIKES MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS. MODELS SHOW AREA OF UPR
DVGC/MID LVL FGEN IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE NW
ONTARIO SHRTWV IS OVER THIS AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS. ANOTHER SHRTWV
IS DIGGING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND DEEPENING AN UPR TROF THERE.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FNT THAT WL BE CROSSING UPR MI TODAY.
TODAY...LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SFC
COLD FNT CROSSING UPR MI TODAY AND REACHING LK MI ARND 21Z. SINCE
UPR DVGC/AXIS OF MID LVL FGEN SUPPORTING AREA OF DISTURBED WX IN THE
NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE OVER THE UPR LKS WHILE THE FNT IS
CROSSING THE CWA...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW SHOWER COVERAGE EXPANDING
WITH TIME. SINCE THE DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE ABERDEEN RAOB AND TRAILING
THE FNT IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT THE WRN CWA BEFORE THE ARRIVAL...WL
FCST THE HIEST LIKELY POPS OVER THE SE HALF OF UPR MI THIS AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LTG STRIKES OBSVD UPSTREAM...MODEL
FCST MUCAPES NO HIER THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG OVER THE CWA SUPPORT
LEAVING TS OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. WITH EARLIER COLD FROPA OVER THE
W...TEMPS THERE WL BE MUCH LOWER THAN YDAY.
TNGT...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS EXIT THE SE CWA THIS
EVNG. THE 00Z NAM IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE...BUT FAVOR THE FASTER DRYING TREND SHOWN BY THE MAJORITY
OF THE OTHER MODELS GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE TRAILING AIRMASS DEPICTED
ON THE 00Z ABERDEEN RAOB. THESE MODELS FAVOR SOME LINGERING HIER
LIKELY POPS EARLY IN THE EVNG OVER THE SE BEFORE VIGOROUS DRYING
BRINGS A CLRG TREND EVEN THOUGH ANOTHER COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV NOW DIGGING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO PASS OVERNGT.
H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO ARND 0C OVER THE KEWEENAW BY 12Z TUE WL RESULT
IN A MUCH COOLER OVERNGT WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING TO ARND 40 AND
PERHAPS THE UPR 30S AT SOME OF THE HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. STRONG NW
FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS WL LIMIT THE TEMP DROP.
ALTHOUGH THE SFC-H85 DELTA T BTWN THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS /MID
TO UPR 50S F/IS SUFFICIENT FOR LK CLDS/PCPN...THE INCOMING AIRMASS
WL BE TOO DRY AND THE LLVL FLOW TOO ACYC TO SUPPORT MORE THAN SCT
CLDS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO UPPER GREAT LAKES SLIDES TO
EASTERN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK WHILE HEIGHTS SLOWLY REBOUND FM
NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES. TROUGH WILL ENSURE A COOLER
WEEK WITH FROST/FREEZE OVER PARTS OF CWA TUE NIGHT AND MAYBE WED
NIGHT AS WELL.
ON TUESDAY...COOLER AIR ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO 0C TO -1C BY
AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD BE GUSTY UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR. THOUGH APPROACHING HIGH IS THE DOMINANT
FACTOR...NAM/GFS/GEM-REGIONAL INDICATE HIGHER H85 RH MOVING ACROSS
LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z AND EXPANDING BY 18Z AS THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.
ENVISION FEW-SCT STRATOCU CLOUDS EXPANDING INTO A STRATOCU/CUMULUS
DECK MAINLY CNTRL CWA BY AFTN...THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE REST OF
AFTN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
LOW TO MID 50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND MAY TOUCH 60 DEGREES IN THE FAR
SCNTRL. EVEN THOUGH SWIM RISK WILL BE HIGH ALONG MARQUETTE AND ALGER
COUNTIES...AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW 55 DEGREES WILL PROHIBIT THE
ISSUANCE OF A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT.
NEXT UP IS TUE NIGHT AND THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. UPSHOT IS THE
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL...AT LEAST AWAY FM THE INTERIOR WEST...IS NOT
AS CLEAR CUT AS IT LOOKED THE LAST FEW DAYS. RECENTLY IN THE
MODELS...IT APPEARED THAT THE APPROACHING HIGH WOULD SETTLE RIGHT
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW...RIDGE AXIS STAYS MAINLY OVER WESTERN
UPR MICHIGAN WHILE A LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT NE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AFFECTS
EAST HALF OF CWA /SEE THIS AS 950-900MB WINDS OVER 10 KTS FM NCNTRL
INTO EASTERN CWA. ALSO...WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING AROUND -1C OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND WITH SOME 875MB-850MB
MOISTURE SHOWN ON GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SCT-
BKN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AS DELTA T VALUES WILL BE OVER 15C. BEST
CHANCE FOR BKN CLOUDS WOULD BE OVER FAR NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AND
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVER FOR
THERE AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE KEWEENAW. FOR TEMPS...USED GUIDANCE
THAT SHOWED LOWEST TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S OVER INTERIOR WEST BUT KEPT
READINGS MAINLY MID-UPR 30S WHERE CLOUDS MAY DISRUPT COOLING.
AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL DAY ON WED...ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH
SOME FROST SEEMS PROBABLE FOR WED NIGHT. SETUP IS NO BETTER THAN TUE
NIGHT THOUGH AS HIGH CENTER IS MORE OVER QUEBEC AND THAT LEAVES A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN SO...MIN TEMPS MAY BE
AT LEAST IN LOWER 30S...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS
WED INTO THU SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. THESE
VALUES ARE PRETTY SEASONABLE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER...THOUGH MUCH COOLER
THAN THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SEEN MUCH OF THIS MONTH.
AFTER SOME RAIN TODAY...DRIER TREND THAT BEGAN TO SHOW UP IN THE
MODELS LAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY EXPANDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON WED AND BUILDS FURTHER TO OVER 1040MB IN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY.
RIDGE FM THE HIGH EXPANDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
AS FAR WEST AS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. AT FIRST GLANCE...THIS
SHOULD KEEP MAJORITY OF REGION DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...GFS AND 12Z ECMWF INDICATE THAT DECENT STRENGTH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BREAKING FREE FM THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
WILL SLIDE OVER UPR GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF
NOT NEAR AS DEEP WITH TROUGH AS IT SHOWED WITH 12Z RUN THOUGH. DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE HINTS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
FORCING AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS. OVERALL MOST CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
LACKING LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE SFC HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. IF THERE ENDS UP BEING BETTER CYCLONIC FLOW IN LOW-
LEVELS AS 12Z ECMWF INDICATED...COULD SEE HELP FM LK SUPERIOR FOR
PRECIP AS H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AS LOW AS -3C WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVERHEAD. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.
FINALLY...GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF WITH SECONDARY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN MORE TYPICAL NW TO SE
PROGRESSION LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK /DAYS 8-10/. H85
TEMPS AS LOW AS -9C IN THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR OVER ONTARIO WITH
AROUND -5C OVER UPR MICHIGAN LAST TWO RUNS. NEITHER THE 12Z RUN OR
MOST RECENT 00Z RUN OF ECMWF SHOWED ADDITIONAL TROUGHING THOUGH WITH
RIDGING RE APPEARING INTO NEXT WEEK IN WAKE OF THE WEEKEND
TROUGHING. ECMWF DOES INDICATE TROUGHING AND SIMILAR DEGREE OF COLD
AIR...BUT IT STAYS WELL UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST CANADA MOST OF THE
WEEK. FOR THE FORECAST...CONSENSUS SHOULD COVER IT ATTM. USUALLY DO
NOT GET TOO CONCERNED WITH THESE TYPE OF DETAILS IN THE FAR REACHES
OF EXTENDED AND BEYOND...BUT GIVEN THE VERY WARM SEPTEMBER ABOUT TO
CONCLUDE /POTENTIALLY RECORD WARMEST AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN/...IT IS NOTABLE THAT SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT COOLER
AIRMASSES CLOSE BY AS FIRST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER ARRIVES. OFFICIAL
8-14 DAY AND EXPERIMENTAL 3-4 WEEK FORECASTS FM CPC STILL INDICATING
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL OVERALL THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND LATE MON MORNING
AT KSAW ALONG/AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL ONLY
LAST A FEW HOURS AT EACH TERMINAL WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM THE
WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS NW WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. LLWS IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z MON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS THIS MRNG AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW UP
TO 20 KTS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE
FAR EAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT.
EXPECT NNW WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO 25-30 KTS IN ITS WAKE LATE
TONIGHT/TUE. AS A TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE CLOSES IN ON THE AREA ON
TUE NIGHT/WED...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15-20 KTS. ONCE THE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC LATER IN THE WEEK...E WINDS UP TO 20 KTS
WILL DOMINATE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
410 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID/UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SW TO SE CANADA WHILE A TROF IS
PROGRESSING THRU WRN CANADA. AT THE SFC...THE TROF IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL SD ACROSS FAR NW MN TO HUDSON BAY.
SW FLOW BTWN THE COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST HAS LED TO ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE SEPT DAY
TODAY. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...AROUND 80F. FOG/STRATUS THAT WAS OVER CNTRL UPPER MI
EARLY THIS MORNING BURNED OFF BY LATE MORNING. STRATOCU THAT WAS
OVER IL/SE WI/LAKE MI EARLY TODAY HAS SPREAD N. WHILE STILL S OF
KMNM...THE AREA OF MOISTURE HAS LED TO MORE CLOUD COVER FROM AROUND
KISQ/KERY EASTWARD. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.
DURING THE SHORT TERM...FOCUS WILL BE ON CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING
FOR VIEWING LUNAR ECLIPSE AND THEN PCPN POTENTIAL AS WRN CANADA TROF
CONTINUES EASTWARD...PUSHING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MON.
WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING...MODELS SHOW WINDS IN THE APPROACHING
CLOUD BEARING LAYER (ROUGHLY 875-850MB) VEERING SOME TONIGHT.
THUS...THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF THE STRATOCU APPROACHING FROM S
SHOULD TEND TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH TIME. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF AN IRON MTN TO
MUNISING LINE WILL HAVE THE MOST CLOUD COVER...POTENTIALLY OBSCURING
MUCH OF THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS EVENING AT A FEW LOCATIONS. NAM IN
PARTICULAR IS AGGRESSIVE IN MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS BLO STRATOCU
LAYER FARTHER TO THE W...BUT DON`T THINK THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING EVEN IF IT IS CORRECT WITH THE
MOISTURE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE ONLY VERY
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN TIMING FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...
REACHING THE W EARLY MON MORNING AND EXITING THE SE LATE AFTN.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SCT/CHC POPS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W. BIGGER
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER THE UPPER JET CONFIGURATION WITH
RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN UNDERNEATH
WILL BE SUFFICENT TO HELP DEVELOP A HEAVIER/MORE SOLID BAND OF SHRA
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA MON. THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF IMPROVED FORCING LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SCNTRL AND ERN
FCST AREA MON AFTN. WITH THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE LATEST RAP RUN
ENDING AT 12Z MON APPEARING TO SUPPORT THAT IDEA AS IT HAS STRONGER
FORCING DEVELOPING TO THE W AT THE END OF THE MODEL RUN...WILL RAISE
POPS FOR MON...ESPECIALLY SCNTRL AND E WHERE LIKELY/NMRS WILL BE
UTILIZED LATE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
INCLUDE MENTION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO UPPER GREAT LAKES SLIDES TO
EASTERN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK WHILE HEIGHTS SLOWLY REBOUND FM
NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES. TROUGH WILL ENSURE A COOLER
WEEK WITH FROST/FREEZE OVER PARTS OF CWA TUE NIGHT AND MAYBE WED
NIGHT AS WELL.
ON TUESDAY...COOLER AIR ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO 0C TO -1C BY
AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD BE GUSTY UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR. THOUGH APPROACHING HIGH IS THE DOMINANT
FACTOR...NAM/GFS/GEM-REGIONAL INDICATE HIGHER H85 RH MOVING ACROSS
LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z AND EXPANDING BY 18Z AS THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.
ENVISION FEW-SCT STRATOCU CLOUDS EXPANDING INTO A STRATOCU/CUMULUS
DECK MAINLY CNTRL CWA BY AFTN...THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE REST OF
AFTN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
LOW TO MID 50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND MAY TOUCH 60 DEGREES IN THE FAR
SCNTRL. EVEN THOUGH SWIM RISK WILL BE HIGH ALONG MARQUETTE AND ALGER
COUNTIES...AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW 55 DEGREES WILL PROHIBIT THE
ISSUANCE OF A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT.
NEXT UP IS TUE NIGHT AND THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. UPSHOT IS THE
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL...AT LEAST AWAY FM THE INTERIOR WEST...IS NOT
AS CLEAR CUT AS IT LOOKED THE LAST FEW DAYS. RECENTLY IN THE
MODELS...IT APPEARED THAT THE APPROACHING HIGH WOULD SETTLE RIGHT
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW...RIDGE AXIS STAYS MAINLY OVER WESTERN
UPR MICHIGAN WHILE A LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT NE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AFFECTS
EAST HALF OF CWA /SEE THIS AS 950-900MB WINDS OVER 10 KTS FM NCNTRL
INTO EASTERN CWA. ALSO...WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING AROUND -1C OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND WITH SOME 875MB-850MB
MOISTURE SHOWN ON GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SCT-
BKN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AS DELTA T VALUES WILL BE OVER 15C. BEST
CHANCE FOR BKN CLOUDS WOULD BE OVER FAR NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AND
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVER FOR
THERE AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE KEWEENAW. FOR TEMPS...USED GUIDANCE
THAT SHOWED LOWEST TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S OVER INTERIOR WEST BUT KEPT
READINGS MAINLY MID-UPR 30S WHERE CLOUDS MAY DISRUPT COOLING.
AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL DAY ON WED...ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH
SOME FROST SEEMS PROBABLE FOR WED NIGHT. SETUP IS NO BETTER THAN TUE
NIGHT THOUGH AS HIGH CENTER IS MORE OVER QUEBEC AND THAT LEAVES A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN SO...MIN TEMPS MAY BE
AT LEAST IN LOWER 30S...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS
WED INTO THU SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. THESE
VALUES ARE PRETTY SEASONABLE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER...THOUGH MUCH COOLER
THAN THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SEEN MUCH OF THIS MONTH.
AFTER SOME RAIN TODAY...DRIER TREND THAT BEGAN TO SHOW UP IN THE
MODELS LAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY EXPANDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON WED AND BUILDS FURTHER TO OVER 1040MB IN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY.
RIDGE FM THE HIGH EXPANDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
AS FAR WEST AS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. AT FIRST GLANCE...THIS
SHOULD KEEP MAJORITY OF REGION DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...GFS AND 12Z ECMWF INDICATE THAT DECENT STRENGTH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BREAKING FREE FM THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
WILL SLIDE OVER UPR GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF
NOT NEAR AS DEEP WITH TROUGH AS IT SHOWED WITH 12Z RUN THOUGH. DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE HINTS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
FORCING AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS. OVERALL MOST CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
LACKING LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE SFC HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. IF THERE ENDS UP BEING BETTER CYCLONIC FLOW IN LOW-
LEVELS AS 12Z ECMWF INDICATED...COULD SEE HELP FM LK SUPERIOR FOR
PRECIP AS H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AS LOW AS -3C WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVERHEAD. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.
FINALLY...GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF WITH SECONDARY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN MORE TYPICAL NW TO SE
PROGRESSION LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK /DAYS 8-10/. H85
TEMPS AS LOW AS -9C IN THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR OVER ONTARIO WITH
AROUND -5C OVER UPR MICHIGAN LAST TWO RUNS. NEITHER THE 12Z RUN OR
MOST RECENT 00Z RUN OF ECMWF SHOWED ADDITIONAL TROUGHING THOUGH WITH
RIDGING RE APPEARING INTO NEXT WEEK IN WAKE OF THE WEEKEND
TROUGHING. ECMWF DOES INDICATE TROUGHING AND SIMILAR DEGREE OF COLD
AIR...BUT IT STAYS WELL UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST CANADA MOST OF THE
WEEK. FOR THE FORECAST...CONSENSUS SHOULD COVER IT ATTM. USUALLY DO
NOT GET TOO CONCERNED WITH THESE TYPE OF DETAILS IN THE FAR REACHES
OF EXTENDED AND BEYOND...BUT GIVEN THE VERY WARM SEPTEMBER ABOUT TO
CONCLUDE /POTENTIALLY RECORD WARMEST AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN/...IT IS NOTABLE THAT SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT COOLER
AIRMASSES CLOSE BY AS FIRST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER ARRIVES. OFFICIAL
8-14 DAY AND EXPERIMENTAL 3-4 WEEK FORECASTS FM CPC STILL INDICATING
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL OVERALL THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND LATE MON MORNING
AT KSAW ALONG/AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS WILL ONLY
LAST A FEW HOURS AT EACH TERMINAL WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM THE
WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS NW WINDS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. LLWS IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z MON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...S TO SW WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL GUST TO AROUND 25KT TONIGHT...BUT UP TO 30KT AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
TONIGHT AND MON...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE W TO NW WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 20KT. AN UPTICK IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT/TUE
TO 20-30KT...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR FLOWING OVER THE
LAKE AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO
UNDER 15KT W TO E TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE UPPER
LAKES. THE HIGH PRES WILL THEN DRIFT TO THE ENE WED THRU FRI...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS A RESULT...WHILE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME...SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY 20KT OR LESS
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
233 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
LOW CLOUDS (UNFORTUNATELY) CONTINUE TO HANG OVER ALMOST ALL OF OUR
CWA LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR WRN SECTIONS OF
CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES RIGHT ALONG THE NW EDGE OF THIS
LOW CLOUD DECK. BAD TIMING TO HAVE A CLOUDY NIGHT GIVEN THE RARE
SUPERMOON LUNAR ECLIPSE HAPPENING AS I WRITE. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALL NIGHT. A FEW REGION OBS HAVE ACTUALLY
REPORTED SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. BOTH THE LATEST RAP13
AND HRRR SUPPORT THIS NOTION. TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES
AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LOW TEMPS COOLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
...SORRY FOR THE CLOUDS LUNAR ECLIPSE VIEWERS...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE HOPE ON THE HORIZON
AS SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
UPSTREAM. SO ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOUGH TO SEE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE...A
FEW OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS
EVENING...DESPITE THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. THERE ARE QUESTIONS
OVERNIGHT ABOUT THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
DIMINISH (1000-500 MB RH FALLS FROM BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT TO
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 PERCENT)...BUT ANY PARTIAL CLEARING WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AREAS OF STRATUS FORMATION. MILDER WITH SOUTH WINDS KEEPING
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
...HEADLINES..
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NON-SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FROST POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MAIN WESTERLIES DISPLACED WELL NORTH
ACROSS CANADA...WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN CONTINENTAL U.S. NORTHERN PORTION OF A
SPLITTING TROUGH CROSSING WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY LEFT BEHIND AROUND 140W. MEANWHILE...DISTURBANCES CAUGHT IN
WEAK FLOW INCLUDE ONE OVER TEXAS/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...A
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF BERMUDA NEAR 60W...AND A WEAKENING
FEATURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SURFACE...1034MB HIGH
STRETCHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA RIDGING WEST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY...WITH 60S DEW POINTS/BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
RATIOS >10G/KG CREEPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND
INTO ILLINOIS/INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN WYOMING.
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST SHORT TERM FORECAST IMPACT ON THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK...AS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
WAVE WILL CLIP MICHIGAN IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME BEFORE
LIFTING OUT BY MIDWEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES
BY THURSDAY. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION IN
ITS WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS WITH COLD
FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...CHILLY TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING?
MONDAY...COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S. SOME
INDICATIONS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY
IN THE NAM-WRF WHICH IS (AS USUAL) BULLISH ON PULLING HIGHER DEW
POINTS INTO NORTHERN LOWER. THINK WHAT MAY OCCUR IS A MOSTLY POST-
FRONTAL RAIN BAND MOVING INTO EASTERN UPPER DURING MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...WHILE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE THAT FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (MBL/FKS/TVC) MAY STAY DRY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ONE LAST WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. RAIN BAND SHOULD THEN PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT...AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET
FORCING. RAIN SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE UPPER PENINSULA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF
0.25-0.50 INCH EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...WILL BE FIRMLY IN POST-COLD FRONT AIR MASS TUESDAY
MORNING...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA ALLOWING FOR UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL
SPEED. BUT SHOULD BE CLEARING OUT BEYOND THAT AS COOLER/DRIER AIR
SPILL ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...AND MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S EXPECTED WITH A NORTHWEST
BREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A FLATTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. POSSIBILITY OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A PRETTY GOOD
FROST ACROSS INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
WEDNESDAY...SO ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW END OF SEPTEMBER NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD IS ON TAP ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. RECENT TRENDS HAVE
SLOWED NEXT WEEKEND`S DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
BEFORE SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AT THIS
POINT...THERE`S FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE DETAILS WILL PLAY
OUT FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AS INTERACTIONS...FROM BOTH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...REMAIN UNCLEAR.
IT`S SAFE TO SAY THE AREA WILL RETURN TO TEMPERATURES MUCH MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
OCTOBER. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY FROST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
TYPICAL COOLER/INTERIOR SPOTS IN NORTHERN LOWER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE BREAKS AT TIMES IN THE CLOUDS. DAYTIME HEATING ON MONDAY
MIGHT BUBBLE UP A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS NE LOWER
MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A LOWER END CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AT APN. BUT A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE
REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A QUICK LOWERING
OF CLOUD COVER TO MVFR WITH THE FRONT AS COOLER AIR BLEEDS INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE A NARROW BAND OF MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY
FOLD INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS...SW 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME
LLWS OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN INTO THE N/NW MONDAY EVENING WITH
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLOATING AROUND THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH
STRENGTHENING SW WINDS AHEAD OF IT FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WILL BRING SOME LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAINING POSTED. THE FRONT ARRIVES BY MONDAY
EVENING...BRINGING AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN THAT MAY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME GUSTY TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ341-342-
344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SULLIVAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
305 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY DRAPED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND ON INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN OUT AHEAD OF
IT...BUT NOT BRINGING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. SOME FOG
HAS FORMED BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT VISIBILITIES ARE STILL IN THE 3-5
MILE RANGE AND DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GET MUCH WORSE. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY. OF INTEREST ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF WYOMING AND INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SOME DECENTLY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND A FAIR AMOUNT
OF LIGHTNING WITH IT...SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
DAY. THUS...EXPECT THAT THIS PARTICULAR FEATURES IS PROBABLY
STRONGER THAN MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW...AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO
RIPPLE EAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY TODAY. BASED ON
THIS STRONGER FEATURE HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS MY
SOUTHEASTERN CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY...USING THE 06Z HRRR RUN FOR
THE GENERAL PLAN AND HAVE MADE SOME OTHER TWEAKS TO PLACE A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MY NW WISCONSIN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY...GENERALLY FROM 15Z TO 21Z.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
MOST LOCATIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT THE FRONT DROPS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CAN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT WITH CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME 850MB TEMPS IN THE -3 C
RANGE BY 12Z. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR SOME CHILLY TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO EVEN THE UPPER 20S IN SOME OF OUR
COLD SPOTS AND 30S ELSEWHERE. FROST IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. HAVE
LEFT IT TO THE DAY SHIFT TO SEND OUT A FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY AS
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT ANTICIPATE
THAT WE WILL NEED ONE OR BOTH FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TUESDAY TO REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S IN THIS
CHILLY AIRMASS...AND THE DRY AIR TO BRING OUR MIN RH VALUES DOWN
INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO A
WIDE RANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT SOME NOTABLE TRENDS ARE
BEGINNING TO EMERGE. A COOL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
TO NEAR FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS...THEN GENERALLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS HIGH DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BUT ALSO IN
POCKETS ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND MN ARROWHEAD. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD
FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE WED/WED NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST TO EVEN NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE TOWARDS THE BORDERLAND.
WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA
WEDNESDAY...THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THURSDAY AS EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL DUE TO AN 850/700 MB HIGH OVER ONTARIO.
FOR THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...EVEN DISREGARDING THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH HAS RECENTLY
SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. ONE INTERESTING FEATURE ON THE 00Z
GFS IS A LOW THAT DROPS OUT OF EASTERN CANADA AND MOVES WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THE LATEST
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS AS STRONGLY...PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE DEPICTED
SUCH A FEATURE. ONE CONSISTENT FEATURE IS A 850MB HIGH OVER FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WHICH COULD BRING AS COLD AS 0C AIR OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW THIS COLD OVER A RELATIVELY
WARM LAKE COULD PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT /RAIN/ SHOWERS...BUT WITH
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH AS
LOW AS IFR CONDITIONS AT INL AND HIB EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING...SLOWING AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR.
BEHIND THE FRONT FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
INCLUDING AT HIB AND INL...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
AT DLH AND BRD TOWARDS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FOR MOST TAF SITES AS WELL.
BY MONDAY MORNING FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING WITH A LIGHT WEST
WIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 65 40 55 37 / 10 0 0 0
INL 61 30 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 67 39 59 38 / 20 0 0 0
HYR 67 37 58 29 / 60 0 0 0
ASX 68 40 57 34 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
454 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER
NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA BEFORE OPENING UP
AND SHEARING OUT AS IT EVENTUALLY GETS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE WESTERLIES. FOR NOW HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN REGION NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
(PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES). PER NHC GUIDANCE...IT
APPEARS ANY HYBRID TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MOISTURE CHANNEL WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT POSE CONCERNS FOR THE
ARKLAMISS.
THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB YESTERDAY MORNING IN SIGNALING OR THE INLAND
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER CONVECTION ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR (KMEI
OBSERVED > 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL) AND HAVE FOLLOWED IT AGAIN FOR
TODAY. RECENT RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT MESOSCALE VORTEX OVER
WESTERN AL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT COULD
IMPACT EASTERN MS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AND SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND HAVE CUT
BACK ON GUIDANCE POPS JUST A BIT. WEAK MID LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT OVERALL TSTM
POTENTIAL. AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
MILD SIDE IN THIS WETTER/CLOUDIER REGIME. /EC/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE SPECIFICS
OF HYBRID GULF LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO (OR VICINITY)
IN THE COMING SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...MODEL CONSENSUS IS QUITE GOOD
THAT DEVELOPMENT EITHER IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR JUST OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL STRENGTHEN A BUILDING UPPER TROUGH DEEP
DOWN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SUCH A PATTERN
SHOULD HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND PUSH
ALL BUT MINUSCULE PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF OUR REGION BY THURSDAY.
DESPITE THE LACK OF A TRULY CHILLY AIR MASS UP NORTH TO LATCH
ONTO...THE PATTERN DEFINITELY HAS A COOL LOOK AND SHOULD BRING MOST
OF THE REGION BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
ONE CONCERN WHICH WILL BARE WATCHING IN THE COMING DAYS IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OWING
TO INCREASED WINDS...RATHER LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY...AND THE
CONTINUED DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER IN MANY LOCATIONS. OF COURSE...IF WE
ARE FORTUNATE...THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINS AROUND THE
AREA OVER NEXT FEW DAYS TO ALLEVIATE MUCH OF THIS CONCERN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DUE TO THIS FACET OF UNCERTAINTY THE HWO WILL BE
LEFT CLEAR IN THIS REGARD FOR THE TIME BEING.
BY NEXT WEEKEND THE NORTH AMERICAN CIRCULATION PATTERN SEEMS TO HOLD
MORE THAN AN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CHAOS THAT REMAINS TO BE WORKED OUT
WITH SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE BY NWP MODELS. REGARDLESS...POTENTIAL OF
A WARMING TREND AND SLOWLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IS STILL DECENT
OVER THIS STRETCH. /BB/
&&
.AVIATION...OVERALL...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER POOR AS WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CATEGORY STRATUS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHRA WHICH COULD IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
AT SOME POINT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING IS UNUSUALLY LOW. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 77 69 83 69 / 49 41 51 29
MERIDIAN 76 68 83 67 / 68 66 51 37
VICKSBURG 82 67 84 67 / 47 40 49 27
HATTIESBURG 80 70 85 69 / 66 43 40 21
NATCHEZ 81 69 83 67 / 48 40 44 23
GREENVILLE 81 68 82 68 / 42 42 44 28
GREENWOOD 80 68 81 67 / 46 59 53 33
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
/EC/BB/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
1038 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST LATE THIS EVENING TO SPREAD POPS TO COVER ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND TO EXPAND AND ENHANCE POPS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. COVERAGE IS MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN MODEL FORCING WOULD SUGGEST THUS THE UPDATE. BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF A MILES CITY
TO BILLINGS LINE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RIGHT REAR QUAD JET ENERGY
COMBINE TO ENHANCE LIFT. PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS LIGHT AT LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN GENERAL. CHAMBERS
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
HEIGHTS STILL FALLING ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FROM ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THIS TROUGH MOVEMENT IS BRINGING EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA BUT DEEPER TAP IS OVER WYOMING AND
CURRENT RADAR DOES SO ANY PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE PARK AND THE BIG HORNS. WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE
RISE HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 9 PM.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS TIMING MAY IMPACT LUNAR ECLIPSE VIEWING FOR
PEOPLE.
MONDAY IS MOSTLY DRY WITH A CONTINUED COOLING TREND WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING WEAKLY OVER THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS BECOMES POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND MOISTURE IS
PULLED INTO THAT AREA AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. STILL NOT A BUNCH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED.
TUESDAY HEIGHTS BUILD UPSTREAM WITH DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRYING
BUT NO WHERE NEAR THE SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS SEEN EARLIER THIS
WEEKEND. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
EXTENDED DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE SHOWING AGREEMENT EARLY...WHILE
THE EURO ENSEMBLES CONTINUED TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE GEFS SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL 00Z
FRI. NOTED THAT DETERMINISTIC MODELS START FALLING OUT OF
AGREEMENT ON FRI WITH POTENTIALLY POTENT APPROACHING WEST-COAST
SYSTEM.
UPPER RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... TO
THEN BE REPLACED BY PACIFIC TROUGH WHEN MODEL QPF BEGINS TO
INCREASE WITH ASSOCIATED FORCING IN WESTERN ZONES. THE TROUGH WILL
FORM AN UPPER LOW THAT SHIFTS SE DURING FRI... WITH TRENDING
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SAME DIRECTION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS ARE PRESENT IN THE GRIDS TO COVER THIS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST THE AREA ON THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TRACK SHOULD BRING
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE AREA GRADUALLY... AS THE FRONTAL COMPLEX
AND SFC LOW ALSO REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH.
GFS SOLUTION HAS MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND QPF IN FAVOR OF AT LEAST
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT EURO IS
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND DRIER IN THE SAME PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION
BRINGS AN UPPER LOW ONTO THE CENTRAL CA COST...WHILE THE GFS HAD
THE LOW NEARBY BUT MUCH WEAKER..WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IN THE
EURO LIKELY THE SOURCE OF WARMER TEMPS. BOTH MODELS THUS HAD VERY
DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF FLOW OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SW IN THE EURO AND SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN
THE NW FLOW FROM THE GFS... BUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD WAS DRY IN
BOTH MODELS. MROWELL
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH/
EAST OF A KLVM-KBIL-KMLS LINE TONIGHT. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WILL
BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/068 046/078 051/081 053/072 051/065 047/059 041/063
20/B 00/U 01/U 35/W 53/W 22/W 11/B
LVM 041/069 042/078 046/081 048/068 046/064 044/058 039/062
20/U 00/U 01/B 34/W 32/W 22/W 22/W
HDN 047/070 044/079 048/084 050/076 048/067 045/062 041/068
30/B 01/B 11/U 35/W 52/W 22/W 11/B
MLS 049/068 044/077 048/081 052/077 050/066 046/063 042/066
21/B 01/B 11/U 25/W 43/W 22/W 11/B
4BQ 050/066 046/077 049/082 051/076 049/067 046/064 043/068
41/E 01/B 21/U 13/W 54/W 22/W 21/B
BHK 047/064 043/072 047/078 049/073 048/064 044/062 041/064
32/W 01/B 21/U 23/W 44/W 21/B 11/B
SHR 046/069 043/079 047/082 048/075 048/067 042/063 039/068
31/B 11/B 11/B 24/W 33/W 22/W 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
445 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND LAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL FED INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A SUBTLE MID LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVES NORTHWARD AND INCREASES LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
LATEST HRRR QPF FIELDS SUGGESTING THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT CROSSES THE REGION FOLLOWED BY A DIMINISHING TREND THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE INCOMING WARMER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S ON THE LAKE PLAINS TODAY WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM A
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
WILL STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH THICKER...LOWER CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PLUME OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5IN /MORE THAN 2SD ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL LIE ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE INTO TUESDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE CIRCULATING
AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A
BROAD 500MB TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.
A COMBINATION OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA EXITING THE BASE OF THE 500MB TROUGH WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES RISING OVER 1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF
30-35 KTS. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT IS FORECAST TO CROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE HIGH MOISTURE AIRMASS WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY INTO THE 70S WITH A BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE ONTARIO LAKE PLAINS AND
GENESEE RIVER VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT MID 70S IN THESE WARMER
LOCATIONS.
A BROAD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A PUNCH
OF DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES CLEARING
SKIES AND KNOCKING BACK TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS. THE
INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MIX
GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO MAY LINGER LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH CLEARING FIRST EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE FALL-LIKE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS SLIPPING
BACK TO AROUND 40. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP TO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND URBAN AREAS...WITH LOW 40S TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE SPLIT SUBTROPICAL
AND POLAR JETS DIG STACKED TROUGHS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE
WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING CUT OFF LOWS
DEVELOPING. THE EC LOW JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES KEEPS
ATLANTIC MOISTURE EAST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LEAVING
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK COOL BUT MAINLY DRY WHILE THE GFS LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WOULD ADVECT DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTH
ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD YIELD WETTER AND WARMER WEATHER. THERE
IS A LOT OF ROOM AND TIME FOR MODELS TO BECOME BETTER ALIGNED FOR
NEXT WEEKEND SO JUST INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO ONLY TOP OUT
AROUND 60 WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. LATER TODAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...WHILE
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
IN TERMS OF CIGS...ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THESE WILL DEVELOP
AND LOWER THROUGH THE VFR RANGE THIS MORNING...THOUGH WILL LIKELY
NOT DROP BELOW THAT DUE TO THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AT THE LOWER LEVELS. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS
WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF TODAY...WITH SOME
IFR CIGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS MORNING. AS FOR
VSBYS...WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
AND SCATTERED SIDE...EXPECT THESE TO LARGELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE LARGELY ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE
SOME AREAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF BOTH LAKES WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASING TO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A PERIOD TODAY...THE
RESULTANT HIGHER WAVES WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN OVER CANADIAN
WATERS.
AFTER THAT...A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE LOWER LAKES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING NORTHERLIES BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO BOTH LAKES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR/TMA
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
419 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...
AFTER GETTING LUCKY FOR MOST OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT BEING CLEAR
ENOUGH TO VIEW THE ECLIPSE, REALITY IS SETTING IN WITH THICK
CLOUDS ON OUR DOORSTEPS WITH SOME SHOWERS NOT FAR BEHIND. FOLLOWED
LATEST HRRR QPF FIELDS AND INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH MID
MORNING FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER UP THROUGH FINGER LAKES.
PRECIP SHOULD MAKE IT TO CNY BUT MAY BREAK UP A BIT BY THE TIME
THAT HAPPENS. LATER TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES DON`T
LOOK ALL THAT GREAT BUT WE CAN`T RULE ANYTHING OUT, ESPECIALLY IN
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AREAS JUST MENTIONED ABOVE. FARTHER SOUTH
ESPECIALLY INTO PA, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH MY GARDEN IS WINDING DOWN DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT/LOW
SUN ANGLE, I AM GETTING EXCITED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN AROUND HERE! RAIN CHANCES GO UP FOR OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO MATCH WELL WITH
OTHER OFFICES ALONG WITH THE FACT LI`S ARE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.
UNLIKE PAST RAIN EVENTS WITH EACH MODEL RUN WE ARE LOOKING AT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS INSTEAD OF LOWER
ONES. IN FACT THE MAIN TREND OF THE 0Z RUNS OF BOTH THE EURO AND
GFS NOT ONLY RAISE RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA IS MUCH SLOWER. ACCORDINGLY I RAISED POPS
ABOVE 70% FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT THROUGH MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY NOW, WE HAVE POPS ABOVE 60% FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. DRIER WEATHER NOW HOLDS OFF UNTIL WED NIGHT. AT
EARLY LOOK AT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE A HALF OF AN INCH UP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES, BUT EXCEEDING AN INCH FROM NEAR
BINGHAMTON SOUTH AND EAST, WHERE PRECIP LINGERS THE LONGEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 PM SUNDAY UPDATE...
THOUGH DIFFERING ON DETAILS...MODELS ARE STARTING TO GET INTO
BETTER LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT...ON THE IDEA OF AN UNSETTLED TROUGHY
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE BY NEXT WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW...CUTOFF LOW
EVOLUTION...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL COASTAL SURFACE LOW...MAY ALLOW
MOISTURE TO START CREEPING IN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...BUT THE END RESULT DOES APPEAR TO BE COOL AND WET PERIODS
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BEFORE THEN...MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THANKS TO FEED OF AIR FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC. A FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE STALLED OUT NOT
TOO FAR SOUTHEAST OF US...SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT
KEEPING FORECAST GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIPRES OVER NEW ENG WILL ALLOW AN ELY FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME MVFR CLD CIGS THIS MRNG...SLOWLY
RETURNING TO VFR IN THE LATE MRNG AS HTG ERODES THE CLDS.
OTRW...LTL IN THE WAY OF WX FOR THE NEST 24 HRS.
.OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...CHC -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. BEST CHANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE-TUE NGT.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO VALLEY FOG /MAINLY KELM/.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM/DJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
340 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP INTO THE
REGION TODAY... BETWEEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN
WEATHER CONDITIONS... HOWEVER A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO WET AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...
COLUMN REMAINS VERY MOIST THIS MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS NOT QUITE WHAT IT`S BEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. WE`RE IN GRADUAL TRANSITION AWAY FROM THE DYING
WEDGE REGIME TO AN ATYPICALLY HUMID (ESP FOR LATE SEPTEMBER) AIR
MASS. THE PARENT HIGH WHICH BROUGHT THE DAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND IS
NOW CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE NW ATLANTIC YET STILL NOSING WEST AND
SW INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS. THE STABLE POOL OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT HAS
WEAKENED... AND THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE HOMOGENEOUS ACROSS THE
CWA... DEMONSTRATED BY TEMP/DEWPOINT RANGES OF JUST AROUND 4 DEGREES
ACROSS CENTRAL NC... AND UNIFORM OBSERVED LIFTED INDICES AND CINH.
MUCH OF THIS PAST EVENING`S LIGHT PRECIP DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE HAS SHIFTED WELL NW OUT OF THE AREA... LEAVING JUST
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED DRIZZLE PATCHES. THIS
RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS... HOWEVER AREAS OF SHOWERS NOW JUST OFF THE NC COAST ARE ON
TRACK TO TRANSLATE WEST OR WNW INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THEN INTO
THE PIEDMONT FROM MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... WITH
COVERAGE FILLING IN AS HEATING ALLOWS FOR A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUDS
AND SUBSEQUENT (WEAK) DESTABILIZATION... WITH LIFT POTENTIALLY
AUGMENTED BY A WEAK WAVE TRACKING NE OVER ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT LOW POPS THIS MORNING... TRENDING UP TO LIKELY EAST AND
CHANCE WEST... WITH HIGHER POPS THEN PUSHING WNW INTO THE WRN
PIEDMONT AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING HOURS... A PATTERN SUGGESTED BY
RECENT RUNS OF BOTH LARGE SCALE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
INCLUDING THE SREF/GFS/3 KM NAMRR AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP WARM LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN LCL-TO-
FREEZING-LEVEL DEPTH OVER 4 KM... ALONG WITH PW VALUES OF 2.0-2.3
INCHES... SO ANY SHOWERS FORMING TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. FORECAST MUCAPE FOR TODAY IS UNIMPRESSIVE (UNDER
1000 J/KG... MOST OF WHICH IS BELOW THE -10C LEVEL) WITH GENERALLY
SUB-20-KT DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR... SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER AT
THIS TIME... ALTHOUGH A STRIKE OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT THE AREA OF BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING WNW TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE EVENING... SO WILL
TREND POPS DOWN FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT... RESULTING IN 30-40%
CHANCES NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING DOWN TO JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 1 OVERNIGHT. STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TRAJECTORIES ALONG WITH
PERSISTENCE... ALTHOUGH A LIGHT BREEZE FROM THE NE -- AS MODELS
SUGGEST -- MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL LEAVE IN A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NW (WHERE THE AIR
IS STILL A BIT MORE STABLE AND MORE RESISTANT TO MIXING AND THUS
SHOULD SEE LESS SUNSHINE) TO AROUND 80-82 EAST OF HIGHWAY 1... WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MILD LOWS TONIGHT OF 67-71... AROUND 10 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...
CONTINUED MOIST WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS... AND PERHAPS A STORM
OR TWO. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISS VALLEY TO LA WILL CONTINUE TO TILT SLOWLY... RESULTING IN
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL VORTICITY MOVING FROM THE NW GULF
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE LOW
LEVEL ATLANTIC INFLOW SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE WITH A REDUCED
FETCH... A FUNCTION OF WHAT IS NOW TD #11 AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY NW/NNW
ON ITS ANTICIPATED TRACK TOWARD THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NC. PW IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AT 2.0-2.3 INCHES... WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS... AND MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
INSTABILITY TUE AFTERNOON WITHIN PERSISTENT HIGH THETA-E ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND FIELD AND MARGINAL DPVA...
WE SHOULD SEE DECENT UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE BROAD JET FROM THE GULF INTO THE TN VALLEY. WILL TREND
POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON... WANING
GRADUALLY IN THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME BUT STAYING AT 30-50%... WITH
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES SHIFTING WNW INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS WITH TIME. SLIGHTLY BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED...
STILL MARGINAL THOUGH... SO HAVE INCLUDED JUST A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 75-83 AND LOWS 66-71... BOTH ABOVE
NORMAL... WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING FIRM. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM MONDAY...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS HIGH AS CAN BE ADVERTISED
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PLENTY OF SPREAD AND EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE CONFLICTING ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THE IMPORTANT WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS. THE MAIN
WEATHER HAZARDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A LOW END HEAVY RAIN THREAT...
BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY BE MORE OF A HELP TO CURRENT DROUGHT
STATUS THAN IT WOULD BE A THREAT FOR FLOODING. THE QPF MID TO LATE
WEEK IS THE MAIN QUESTION AS ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF THE MODELS INDICATE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN INLAND WITH OVERRUNNING RAINS AGAIN THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... WHICH 70 PERCENT OF THE MODELS SUPPORT THE HEAVY SWATH
OF QPF ALONG OR JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
ONE THING SEEMS TO BE MORE CERTAIN SHOULD BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AGAIN AS ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH INTO
NC/SC THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS OCCURS AS A TROUGH ALOFT AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST BY MOST MODELS
TO BRING A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THAT BEGAN LATE
LAST WEEK. A RETURN TO A PROLONGED NE FLOW... CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS... AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED THU-SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM MONDAY...
MOIST AND DEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOSTLY ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS TODAY... ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO...
WHERE IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH
13Z... ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE. FARTHER EAST AT RDU/RWI/FAY...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH 13Z... ALTHOUGH RWI MAY BREAK OUT TO
VFR FOR A SHORT TIME... AND RDU COULD DROP TO IFR IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS. SOON AFTER 13Z... CIGS AT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD START TO
SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR... LASTING UNTIL AROUND 18Z OR 19Z WHEN SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED... ALTHOUGH ANY SCT/BKN CLOUDS ARE
STILL LIKELY TO BE BASED AT 2500-3000 FT AGL. A TREND BACK TO MVFR
TO IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED BY MID EVENING (AFTER 00Z TUE). THE LLWS
THREAT OF PREVIOUS NIGHTS IS MUCH LOWER AS THE EASTERLY WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE (AT 1000-2000 FT AGL) HAVE WEAKENED. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
VSBYS.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TUE: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RULE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUE... ALTHOUGH RWI MAY STAY MVFR FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG. INT/GSO SHOULD STAY IFR OR MVFR
THROUGH TUE BUT RDU/RWI/FAY SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR THEN PERHAPS LOW-END
VFR TUE AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATE TUE EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK WED. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY
WED BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WED/WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND
STALL TO OUR SE INTO FRI... POTENTIALLY BRINGING A RETURN TO
PREDOMINANTLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WITHIN AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE.
-GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1236 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TODAY. A FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALL JUST OFFSHORE. DEEP
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BRING A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE MAY CREATE MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...IMPRESSIVE CONVERGENCE BAND NEAR CAPE FEAR
CONTINUES TO FEED SHOWERS WESTWARD ALONG THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY
COAST TO JUST NORTH OF MYRTLE BEACH. LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES
THIS FEATURE MAY BE WITH US FOR ANOTHER 3-5 HOURS...SO FORECAST
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 60-80 PERCENT FROM SOUTHPORT THROUGH
LITTLE RIVER. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM SUNDAY FOLLOWS...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE IN
EASTERLY FLOW. TENDENCY THIS EVENING HAS BEEN FOR THEM TO WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE ON THE COAST AND COVERAGE HAS BEEN ON A SLOW DOWN
TREND. HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK TOWARD CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS INVOF 70 UNDER A MAINLY
CLOUDY SKY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY AND MAY EVEN MOVE ONSHORE FOR A TIME ON MON BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING OUT DURING TUE. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...99TH
PERCENTILE...REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH SOME SLIGHT DRYING
ON TUE AS THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH HAS BEEN EASTERLY
FOR DAYS...BECOMES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD SIGNAL
A CHANCE TO DRY OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE MAKES A RUN FOR THE NE GULF
COAST. THIS MAY NECESSITATE EVEN HIGHER POPS FOR TUE THAN ON
MON AND OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THUS...WILL BE KEEPING POPS ELEVATED AND AS HIGH AS LIKELY AND
INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUE/TUE NIGHT AS
MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE IN DEEPENING SW FLOW AND
WE BEGIN TO SEE SIGNIFICANT LIFT DEVELOP THROUGH A MUCH DEEPER
LAYER LATE IN PERIOD AND ON WED.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FORESEE MORE IN
THE WAY OF BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AS COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WEDGE WEAKENS AND IS DISPLACED WESTWARD.
THEREFORE...TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT AND
WILL FORECAST MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DOMINATED BY WEAK TROUGHING AT THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THE GUIDANCE IS WAVERING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE EAST OR WEAK TROUGHING. REGARDLESS AT THE
SURFACE...MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE WHICH NEVER GETS SWEPT OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PICKING UP
LINGERING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
ATTENDANT FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SLOWLY BY LATER THURSDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY LIMITED
DIURNAL RANGES WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SHOWERS ARE STILL STREAMING ONSHORE JUST NORTH OF
MYRTLE BEACH AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THIS MORNING. WHERE CIGS ARE NOT IFR...THEY SHOULD DROP TO IFR
SHORTLY...REMAINING THERE THROUGH 13-15Z. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE DRY
AIR ARRIVING IN THE MID LAYERS BY DAYBREAK...SO DO NOT THINK
SHOWERS WILL BE AS PREVALENT AFTER DAYBREAK. GOOD CHANCE FOR VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT RETURNING TO IFR TOWARD 06Z TUESDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM MONDAY...BUMPED WIND SPEEDS UP TO 20-25 KT BASED ON
BUOY DATA AND WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM MERCER PIER AT WRIGHTSVILLE
BEACH AND A MESONET OBSERVATION FROM TOPSAIL BEACH. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. DISCUSSION FROM
1000 PM SUNDAY FOLLOWS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WATERS AMZ250...CONTINUED INTO
EARLY MON MORNING WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.
SCEC WILL CONTINUE CAPE FEAR TO LITTLE RIVER FORE SEAS INVOF 5 FT
AT 20 NM. WHILE 15 TO 20 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NORTHERN WATERS
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...NE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT
OVER ALL WATERS BY DAYBREAK. SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA OR SCEC
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
MON THEN SLOWLY LIFT OUT DURING TUE. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND
STRONG NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WEAKEN MON AS
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT PROPAGATES NORTH. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT
THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK. THE 10 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANT INTO TUE AND THIS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...THE WEAKER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO DROP ABOUT A FOOT OR
SO. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS UP TO
4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS MON WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT BY TUE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A BETTER DEFINED NORTHEAST FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY. ESSENTIALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEYOND THIS A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10-15
KNOTS DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO 15-20 BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET
WEDNESDAY TO 4-7 FEET LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING SURROUNDING PERIOD OF THE HIGH TIDE. THIS
WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES FROM SURF CITY TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
AND ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. PERSISTENT
ON SHORE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS ALONG WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE RAISED TIDAL LEVELS TO GREATER THAN A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL. WE CAN EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT SLOWLY WANE AS WE PASS THE FULL MOON TONIGHT.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR LOCAL BEACHES WILL BE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM
THIS EVENING AND FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IT WILL OCCUR AROUND 10
PM. THIS WILL COINCIDE VERY CLOSELY WITH THE FULL MOON AT 1050 PM
THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR PENDER
AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES INTO TONIGHT AND FOR ALL BEACHES
ON MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ250.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
327 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OFF THE COAST AND WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHERLY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY...THEN
STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE GRT LKS IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
RAIN ACROSS NW PA AT 06Z. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR IMPLY THE
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES...AS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS WILL
REMAIN OVR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...SUPPORTING THE CHC OF
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS THRU MID MORNING AND SPOTTY
DRIZZLE WHERE MOIST SE FLOW ASCENDS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY OVERNIGHT FCST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...WHERE SFC RIDGE AND LOWER PWAT AIR MASS WILL LIE. MAINLY
OVERCAST SKIES AND INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO A
MILDER NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS BTWN 55-60F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OFFSHORE HIGH RETREATS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WITH EASTERLY
FETCH DECREASING AS A RESULT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME INCREASES
OVER PA AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. FORCING
REMAINS WEAK ON MONDAY...BUT THE SERLY LOW LVL FLOW AND ASSOC
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL KEEP THINGS CLOUDY FOR MOST. WEAK UPPER
TROF LIFTING THRU WILL PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS...ESP ACROSS THE WEST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVR THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU TO THE U70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID SHIFT DID EDGE POPS UP SOME FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK. THUS DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THIS PART OF
THE FCST.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS DOWN JUST A LITTLE ON THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN EDGES.
FIRST PROBLEM IS THE COLD FRONT FOR LATE TUE. DID UP POPS TO
LIKELY. AS NOTED YESTERDAY...KEY TO FCST THE RATHER DRY AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA THE LAST FEW DAYS. ANYWAY...NOT SOLD
ON A LOT OF RAIN. MODELS HINT AT SOME MODERATE QPF. WILL HAVE TO
ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT/PW AIR IN FROM THE SE COAST TO GET MUCH
RAIN. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW.
LATER WED AND THU STILL LOOK MAINLY DRY.
FOR FRIDAY AND SAT...MODELS SHOW A LOW BACKING IN FROM THE
COAST...AND A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS TRY
TO PHASE THE LONGWAVE ENERGY WITH A WARM CORE LOW. A LOT OF SPREAD
IN SOLUTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WOULD TAKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO THE NE
BY LATER SAT. FOR NOW...LEFT SUNDAY DRY.
NOT LOOKING AT FROST AT THIS POINT...BUT SOME RATHER COLD
AIR WELL NORTH OF PA WITH SFC HIGH.
ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO LATE WEEK
RAIN...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS TAKING TUMBLE
AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE. NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
TEMPS AOB CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LLVL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE
LOWEST 5KFT AGL. A LAYER OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ABOVE THAT.
RESTRICTIONS FROM AN EXPANDING/LOWERING DECK OF STRATOCU AND
STRATUS IMPACTING ALL OF CENTRAL PA AT 07Z. THE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST
NUMEROUS -SHRA AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE NW THIRD OF CWA...WITH MORE
ISOLATED -SHRA DRIFTING ACROSS THE SW.
AREAS OF IFR CIGS /WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED -SHRA/ WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS OF PENN LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJST WHERE THE SERLY LLVL
UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF
GENERALLY 5-10MPH.
LOW CIGS PERSIST INTO MON...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT
BEING OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. CONDITIONS COULD STAY IN THE
LOW MVFR /OR EVEN UPPER IFR/ RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NW
HALF OF OUR FCST AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND.
OUTLOOK...
MON...INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN/LOW CIGS...FOCUSED
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MTNS OF PENN.
TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS LIKELY...ESP NW HALF.
TUE NIGHT...LOW CIGS/SCT SHOWERS.
WED...LOW CIGS NW MTNS EARLY. CHC SHOWERS SOUTH.
THU...NO SIG WX.
FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
220 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OFF THE COAST AND WINDS ARE MORE-SOUTHERLY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY...THEN
STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE GRT LKS IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF
RAIN ACROSS NW PA AT 06Z. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR IMPLY THE
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES...AS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS WILL
REMAIN OVR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...SUPPORTING THE CHC OF
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS THRU MID MORNING AND SPOTTY
DRIZZLE WHERE MOIST SE FLOW ASCENDS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY OVERNIGHT FCST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...WHERE SFC RIDGE AND LOWER PWAT AIR MASS WILL LIE. MAINLY
OVERCAST SKIES AND INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO A
MILDER NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS BTWN 55-60F.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
OFFSHORE HIGH RETREATS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WITH EASTERLY
FETCH DECREASING AS A RESULT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME INCREASES
OVER PA AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. FORCING
REMAINS WEAK ON MONDAY...BUT THE SERLY LOW LVL FLOW AND ASSOC
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL KEEP THINGS CLOUDY FOR MOST. WEAK UPPER
TROF LIFTING THRU WILL PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS...ESP ACROSS THE WEST.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVR THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU TO THE U70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID SHIFT DID EDGE POPS UP SOME FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK. THUS DID NOT MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THIS PART OF
THE FCST.
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EDGE POPS DOWN JUST A LITTLE ON THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN EDGES.
FIRST PROBLEM IS THE COLD FRONT FOR LATE TUE. DID UP POPS TO
LIKELY. AS NOTED YESTERDAY...KEY TO FCST THE RATHER DRY AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA THE LAST FEW DAYS. ANYWAY...NOT SOLD
ON A LOT OF RAIN. MODELS HINT AT SOME MODERATE QPF. WILL HAVE TO
ADVECT HIGHER DEWPOINT/PW AIR IN FROM THE SE COAST TO GET MUCH
RAIN. LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR NOW.
LATER WED AND THU STILL LOOK MAINLY DRY.
FOR FRIDAY AND SAT...MODELS SHOW A LOW BACKING IN FROM THE
COAST...AND A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS TRY
TO PHASE THE LONGWAVE ENERGY WITH A WARM CORE LOW. A LOT OF SPREAD
IN SOLUTIONS FROM DAY TO DAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WOULD TAKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO THE NE
BY LATER SAT. FOR NOW...LEFT SUNDAY DRY.
NOT LOOKING AT FROST AT THIS POINT...BUT SOME RATHER COLD
AIR WELL NORTH OF PA WITH SFC HIGH.
ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO LATE WEEK
RAIN...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS TAKING TUMBLE
AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE. NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
TEMPS AOB CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LLVL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE FLOWS GRADUALLY VEERS FROM FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WITHIN ABOUT THE LOWEST 5 KFT AGL. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
LAYERS OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE OTHERWISE EXPANDING/LOWERING DECK OF
STRATO CU AND STRATUS.
THE CURRENT MAINLY MVFR STRATO CU/STRATUS DECK EXTENDING FROM KBFD
TO KUNV AND KAOO HAS LOWERED TO IFR ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM SW TO NE
OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE
SWRN THIRD-HALF OF PENN.
AREAS OF IFR CIGS /WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR SCATTERED -SHRA/ WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN MTNS OF PENN LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY INVOF KJST WHERE THE SERLY LLVL
UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAXIMIZED.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF
GENERALLY 5-10MPH.
LOW CIGS PERSIST INTO MON...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT
BEING OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. CONDITIONS COULD STAY IN THE
LOW MVFR /OR EVEN UPPER IFR/ RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NW
HALF OF OUR FCST AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND.
OUTLOOK...
MON...INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN/LOW CIGS...FOCUSED
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN MTNS OF PENN.
TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS LIKELY...ESP NW HALF.
TUE NIGHT...LOW CIGS/SCT SHOWERS.
WED...LOW CIGS NW MTNS EARLY. CHC SHOWERS SOUTH.
THU...NO SIG WX.
FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AVIATION...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
320 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...IT WAS A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS MID
TN...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE PLATEAU. WX FEATURES WE
ARE WATCHING FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE TX GULF COAST...AND A TROPICAL LOW
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOWED DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHOWERS STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
FOR TODAY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
MUGGY DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL PUSH INTO TN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REACH AROUND 2
INCHES BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...IMPULSES WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TX UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTH FL TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST...BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD WELL NWWD TO THE TN VALLEY. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND ONE HALF INCH OVER OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TO MORE THAN 1 INCH OVER THE SOUTH. LOCALLY GREATER
AMOUNTS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTH AND
PLATEAU AS WELL.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE.
.LONG TERM...COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DIPPING INTO THE 50S WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH WOULD BE JUST A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
LINGER...POSSIBLY KEEPING SOME SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND REGION LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM
MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE DETAILS.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/
AVIATION UPDATE...
RAIN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN UNDERWHELMING THIS EVENING AND HRRR DOES
NOT PAINT A WET PICTURE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOOK
OUT VCSH AT ALL THREE TERMINALS UNTIL MORNING WHERE GUIDANCE BUMPS
POPS SLIGHTLY. BR WILL BE AN ISSUE AT CKV AND CSV OVERNIGHT. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT OMEGA AND RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E/SE UNDER 5 KTS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 81 66 78 65 / 40 80 90 50
CLARKSVILLE 81 66 78 63 / 30 60 80 40
CROSSVILLE 77 64 74 63 / 30 80 100 60
COLUMBIA 80 65 79 65 / 40 80 90 50
LAWRENCEBURG 79 65 79 65 / 50 80 90 50
WAVERLY 81 65 79 64 / 30 70 80 40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1142 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...
RAIN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN UNDERWHELMING THIS EVENING AND HRRR DOES
NOT PAINT A WET PICTURE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOOK
OUT VCSH AT ALL THREE TERMINALS UNTIL MORNING WHERE GUIDANCE BUMPS
POPS SLIGHTLY. BR WILL BE AN ISSUE AT CKV AND CSV OVERNIGHT. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT OMEGA AND RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E/SE UNDER 5 KTS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/
UPDATE...
WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY. CURRENTLY
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO WORK NORTHWARD FROM ALABAMA
INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
THICKEN UP AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEREFORE
IT DOESNT LOOK GOOD FOR ECLIPSE VIEWING. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 60S FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 66 81 67 81 / 30 30 30 60
CLARKSVILLE 64 81 65 81 / 20 20 30 60
CROSSVILLE 63 76 64 74 / 30 30 60 70
COLUMBIA 65 80 65 79 / 40 30 40 60
LAWRENCEBURG 65 79 66 78 / 40 40 40 60
WAVERLY 65 81 65 80 / 20 20 30 60
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
157 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND LEAD TO CONTINUED WIDESPREAD RAIN OR DRIZZLE
UNDER GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST REGION BY MIDWEEK...POSSIBLY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL BY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 951 PM EDT SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHEAST WIND. AT THE
SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH DEEP
MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PERIODS OF RAIN...DRIZZLE AND
FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HEAVIER BANDS OF
RAIN ARE DEVELOPING AND LIFT NORTH. RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE
ENHANCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT WITH THE LATEST OBS AND MODEL TRENDS. TEMPERATURES
RUNNING COOLER IN SEVERAL AREAS THIS EVENING WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS.
SHAPED THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR POPS TOWARDS HIRESW-ARW-
EAST...RUC AND HRRR WITH THE AXIS ON THE WEST. INCREASED QPF FOR
TONIGHT ALONG SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WITH
SATURATED GROUNDS...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS OF 650 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM CURRENT
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED AGAINST THE EASTERN
FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHEAST WINDFLOW
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED BANDS OF RAIN.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE...REMAINING HEAVIEST/MOST PERSISTENT
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS
WILL AMPLIFY RAINFALL INTENSITY. AS SUCH...MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT ALLOW
FOR MUCH COOLING OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOW 60S.
RAINFALL WILL BE MORE SPOTTY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
WEAKENS...AND ONSHORE FLOW OF MOISTURE DIMINISHES...MAKING
MOISTURE MORE SHALLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THAT STATED...EXPECT WE
WILL STILL SEE SPOTTY BANDS OF RAIN MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE COAST. WITH THE CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW...PERSISTENT
AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE AND OTHER EAST FACING SLOPES. NEEDLESS TO SAY...DO NOT
EXPECT WE WILL SEE CLOUDS BREAK OUT ANYWHERE OUTSIDE OF WESTERN
TAZEWELL COUNTY...WHERE A FEW RAYS OF SUNSHINE MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...WITH LESS RAINFALL EXPECTED...
BELIEVE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER...ALTHOUGH BELOW
THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE RIDGES...TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY IN THE EARLY TO MID-WEEK
PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST MAINTAINING VERY MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
SEMBLANCE OF A WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. SUN SEEKERS SHOULD DEFINITELY LOOK ELSEWHERE AS
OVERCAST SKIES AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARE VERY LIKELY TO PERSIST
RIGHT INTO MID-WEEK AND BEYOND. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
MIDWEST AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
ORGANIZED RAINFALL AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODEL QPFS PER EURO/GFS RANGE FROM 1 TO 3+ INCHES FROM
LATE MONDAY INTO LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH SUGGESTS A POSSIBILITY FOR
RIVER FLOODING (SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW) ACROSS BASINS WHICH HAVE
BECOME MUCH MORE SATURATED WITH THIS WEEKENDS RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL
HAVE NARROW DIURNAL RANGES DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER MAINLY FROM UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AT NIGHT TO UPPER 60S/LOW
70S IN THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL OFF THE EAST COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
WITH ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACT POSITIONING AND EFFECTS OF ANY
SUCH DEVELOPMENT...BUT 12Z GFS IS ACTUALLY QUITE WET ACROSS EVEN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY SO AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS ARE HELD IN THE GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY ALTHOUGH STILL
HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EAST AND TRENDING TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH LOW 60S NW TO UPPER 60S SE FOR HIGHS AND MID 40S TO LOW
50S FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT MONDAY...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. DEEP SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND A HIGH CENTERED OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIFR TO MVFR CEILINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AREAS OF DRIZZLE...FOG AND LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE.
BUFKIT AND MODEL FORECASTS SHOWED A 30 TO 35 KNOT SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL JET AT THE 06Z/2AM START OF THE TAF PERIOD OVER SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS AT KBLF UNTIL 12Z WHEN THE JET BECOMES WEAKER.
AFTER SUNRISE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE A FEW HUNDRED
FEET AND AS THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS WEAKEN...FOG AND DRIZZLE
WILL BECOME MORE PATCHY AND LESS WIDESPREAD. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
AS TO HOW MUCH CEILINGS WILL RISE TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KLYH/KROA
AND KBCB. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AGAIN AFTER SUNSET BACK TO IFR AND
LIFR VALUES.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS SUB VFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES INTO WEDNESDAY. A DEVELOPING WEDGE MAY KEEP
MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS HAVE CRESTED FOR THE MOST PART WITH
NOTHING HAVING REACHED EVEN ACTION STAGE DESPITE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 4
INCHES IN 72 HOURS AND UP TO 8 OR MORE INCHES OF IN ISOLATED PARTS
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL IN THE UPPER REACHES OF
THE DAN AND SMITH RIVER BASINS AND WHATEVER RUNOFF OCCURRED WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY DOWNSTREAM. PHILPOTT RESERVOIR CAUGHT A SUBSTANTIAL
PORTION OF THE SMITH RIVER BASIN RUNOFF WITH THE RESERVOIR ELEVATION
CLIMBING OVER 2 FEET OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THE
DAN IS STILL RISING ALONG ITS ENTIRE REACH BUT IS STILL CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO CREST BELOW ACTION STAGE EVEN AT FLOOD-PRONE SOUTH
BOSTON. WITH MORE RAIN ON THE WAY SOME OF IT POSSIBLY HEAVY...
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATER IN THE
WEEK IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO RIVER FORECASTS
AS THEY WILL LIKELY BE UPDATED FREQUENTLY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...KK/NF
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...AMS/PC
AVIATION...AMS
HYDROLOGY...JH/MBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
333 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
CURRENT SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT NEAR
THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING FROM NEAR DOUGLAS WYOMING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WINDS HAVE STARTED
TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NIOBRARA COUNTY AND MOST OF THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE INTO TUESDAY. THE JET STREAM WILL BECOME MORE
ACTIVE TODAY AS WELL...AS A 90 KNOT JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO
PUSH ACROSS WYOMING TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND A MORE
ACTIVE JET WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY AS SOME LLVL INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT. EXPECT BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL WYOMING AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
3 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN MODELS INDICATE THE BEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW AND A DECENT CHANCE OF RAINFALL...LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S EXPECTED.
TUESDAYS FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY SINCE MODELS INDICATE LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS HANGING ON EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
MAY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 DEGREES
OVER MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. JUST TO THE WEST...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
INTO THE WEST ALLOWING SOME DRY AIR TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE LLVL INSTABILITY AND ALLOW
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO REDEVELOP. KEPT POP BETWEEN 25 TO 40
PERCENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW AMPLE INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH
CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG IN ADDITION TO MODERATE LOW TO
MIDLEVEL SHEAR. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I25 FOR
STRONG TSTORMS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS ALL SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
AMPLIFYING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
CONVECTION DUE TO MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE
AREA...WARMEST JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
MODELS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY FRI/SAT. MIDLVL RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE OVERHEAD ON THURS AND IT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT BASIN ON THURS AND BE LOCATED NEAR WYOMING BY FRI. LLVL
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THURS NIGHT WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT DURING THE DAY ON
FRI. WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAINFALL OCCURRING...DROPPED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES ON FRI. SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST MTNS ON FRI
(ABOVE AROUND 11000 FT).
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY SAT. THE GFS WEAKENS THE
UPPER TROUGH BUT DROPS IT SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO. THIS KEEPS LIGHT
PRECIP MAINLY FROM LLVL UPSLOPE GOING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION (700MB TEMPS DROP TO -2C). THE ECMWF ON THE
OTHER HAND IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH SWINGING INTO NEBRASKA.
REGARDLESS OF THE SOLN IT WILL BE A RATHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE MID 50S (EVEN COLDER ON THE GFS).
HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE BY SUNDAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HRRR GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO
INDICATE SOME FOG/IFR IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY NEAR KBFF TOWARDS
12Z. NOT A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION THOUGH...SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN
THE 06Z TAF FOR KBFF. WILL SEE A CHANGE THOUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS WE SEE NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
CONTINUED THE TREND DOWN ON CEILINGS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE AND AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THIS WEEK DUE TO
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ABOVE 20 PERCENT IN
MOST LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY WITH DAYTIME
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1039 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS DEVELOPING THROUGH MOST OF
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING WITH THE SFC TROUGH MOVING CONTINUING TO MOVE
TO THE EAST OUT OF THE CWA. CURRENTLY RADAR IS SHOWING
SHOWERS/TSTORM STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT POPS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AND INTO CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO
TONIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER.
TOMORROW AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING WILL PROVIDE
SOME UPWARD MOTION INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. COMBINED
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW FROM EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN INCREASE IN
QPF OVER THE SIERRA MADRES AND SNOWY RANGES EARLY IN THE DAY AND
THEN MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR
MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
ALTHOUGH...WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WARMER WITH CLEARER SKIES. SOME STRATUS CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TUESDAY CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. POPS WILL DECREASE WITH A STABLE AIRMASS SLIDING
INTO THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SNEAKING IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IN
THE EAST AND THE TROF IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE MILD CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCES
OF PRECIP. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT THE WIND/DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS THE PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY:
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS ARE GOING TO PAN OUT DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THIS
PACIFIC TROF WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
CURRENTLY...THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS PROGGING THIS WAVE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING THE WAVE STALLING OVER WYOMING/NORTHERN
COLORADO/WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THEN SPENDING MOST OF ITS TIME
BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE GEFS/NAEFS SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING THE WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN SOLUTION
WHICH MAY KEEP THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. AT
THIS POINT...WE ARE FAVORING THE ENSEMBLE APPROACH WHICH KEEPS THE
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP. ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A DOUGLAS TO
SCOTTSBLUFF LINE. THIS MAY ALSO BRING MORE WIND TO THE AREA IF
THIS SYSTEM STAYS FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...IF THIS SYSTEM DIGS
FURTHER SOUTH AS THE GFS SUGGESTS WE MAY END UP WITH VERY COOL AND
RAINY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE TRACK IS...CLOUDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE ON TAP FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
EVEN 50S IN THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. HRRR GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO
INDICATE SOME FOG/IFR IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY NEAR KBFF TOWARDS
12Z. NOT A FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION THOUGH...SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN
THE 06Z TAF FOR KBFF. WILL SEE A CHANGE THOUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS WE SEE NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPING WINDS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
CONTINUED THE TREND DOWN ON CEILINGS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
LIKELY SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLE AND AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 342 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THIS WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA
TOMORROW AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. WINDS WILL ALSO GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WARMER MIDWEEK WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DROP TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WITH
SNOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SML/KC
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...SML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHEASTERN STATES OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA AND THE LOW SHOULD DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG IT. ONE OF THE LOWS IS
ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND, PULLING THE FRONT FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW AND A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING, WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS GREATER MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT,
SO EXPECTING A DRY DAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST WHERE THE NAM AND HRRR INDICATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE. CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIS,
SO HAVE INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE REPLACED BY EVEN MORE MOIST AIR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
WITH ADDITIONAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.
WE`VE INCLUDED FOG ONCE AGAIN IN THE GRIDS ACROSS THOSE AREAS
WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY BE LOWER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AS CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER
OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. WARM HUMID AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE
INTO OUR REGION WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR COUNTIES IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A LESS PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH THE COLD FRONT. IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL
PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING OFF
THE COAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH AND EXCEED 2
INCHES IN MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. ALSO, WE HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LIFT WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SEEMS FAIRLY ROBUST. GENERAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO SEEM POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF OUR
REGION. BEING THAT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY, OUR
THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LOW.
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD LINGER DURING THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD WITH THE FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST
REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.
WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF A STRENGTHENING LOW FINALLY BEGINNING
TO PULL THE FRONT FARTHER OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. IT MAY
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME CLEARING TO BEGIN WORKING INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST AT THAT TIME.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR AT DAYBREAK. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED,
WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST, WHERE ACY HAS BEEN DOWN
TO 1/4SM ATTMS. THE FOG SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 15Z. HOWEVER, THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING, THEN BEGIN LIFTING TO MVFR, THEN VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER A PERIOD OF VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING,
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR DURING THE EVENING HOURS,
AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, FOG MAY BE
MORE EXTENSIVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
EASTERLY, THEN SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...RAIN DEVELOPING AND BECOMING HEAVY
AT TIMES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN, MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF KPHL.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
AS THE FLOW RELAXES ACROSS THE AREA, WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 25
KNOTS. HOWEVER, SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE WATERS. THEREFORE
WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, BUT HAVE CONVERTED IT TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 FEET.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND ON DELAWARE BAY DUE TO AN
INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 12 FEET. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND APPROACH
THE MINOR FLOOD LEVEL. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT EXPECT THE LEVELS TO
REACH CRITERIA REQUIRED TO ISSUE A FLOOD ADVISORY.
A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT, WE MAY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AT THAT TIME. ALSO, BEACH
EROSION IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH WAVES, MODERATE PERIOD SWELL, AND A
STEADY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A HIGH RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AFTER TODAY, THERE MAY BE A WEAK ENOUGH FLOW ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO HAVE THE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT RISK LESS THAN HIGH.
THE SURF ZONE FORECAST ENDS WITH THE MORNING FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY THE 30TH.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...FRANCK
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
731 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ALONG
THE CNDN BORDER AS RATHER SHEARED SHRTWV STRETCHING FM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO NW ONTARIO HAS WEAKENED THE UPR RDG THAT HAS BEEN SO
PERSISTENT RECENTLY OVER ERN NAMERICA. THIS SHRTWV IS SUPPORTING A
SFC COLD FNT THAT IS MOVING E THRU WRN LK SUP EARLY THIS MRNG. SINCE
THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHEARED OUT AND THE MSTR INFLOW IN THE SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FNT IS RATHER MODEST...SHOWER COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING FNT IS RATHER LIMITED...WITH SCT COVERAGE LIMITED BY THE
HIER STABILITY/DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB. CLDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FNT ARE PUSHING THRU THE WRN CWA...BUT THERE IS AN
AXIS OF MOCLR SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL TO W OF SOME LO CLDS ACRS THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/APX
RAOBS. STEADY SW WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE KEEPING TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL NOT FAR FM 60 EVEN WHERE THE SKY IS MOCLR. LOOKING
FARTHER TO THE W...THE 00Z ABERDEEN SDAKOTA ROAB SHOWS A VERY DRY
AIRMASS IS UNDER SFC HI PRES RDG TRAILING THE SFC COLD FNT. BUT
FARTHER TO THE W...THERE IS AN AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS/SHOWERS/EVEN
SOME LTG STRIKES MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS. MODELS SHOW AREA OF UPR
DVGC/MID LVL FGEN IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE NW
ONTARIO SHRTWV IS OVER THIS AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS. ANOTHER SHRTWV
IS DIGGING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND DEEPENING AN UPR TROF THERE.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FNT THAT WL BE CROSSING UPR MI TODAY.
TODAY...LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SFC
COLD FNT CROSSING UPR MI TODAY AND REACHING LK MI ARND 21Z. SINCE
UPR DVGC/AXIS OF MID LVL FGEN SUPPORTING AREA OF DISTURBED WX IN THE
NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE OVER THE UPR LKS WHILE THE FNT IS
CROSSING THE CWA...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW SHOWER COVERAGE EXPANDING
WITH TIME. SINCE THE DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE ABERDEEN RAOB AND TRAILING
THE FNT IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT THE WRN CWA BEFORE THE ARRIVAL...WL
FCST THE HIEST LIKELY POPS OVER THE SE HALF OF UPR MI THIS AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LTG STRIKES OBSVD UPSTREAM...MODEL
FCST MUCAPES NO HIER THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG OVER THE CWA SUPPORT
LEAVING TS OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. WITH EARLIER COLD FROPA OVER THE
W...TEMPS THERE WL BE MUCH LOWER THAN YDAY.
TNGT...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS EXIT THE SE CWA THIS
EVNG. THE 00Z NAM IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE...BUT FAVOR THE FASTER DRYING TREND SHOWN BY THE MAJORITY
OF THE OTHER MODELS GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE TRAILING AIRMASS DEPICTED
ON THE 00Z ABERDEEN RAOB. THESE MODELS FAVOR SOME LINGERING HIER
LIKELY POPS EARLY IN THE EVNG OVER THE SE BEFORE VIGOROUS DRYING
BRINGS A CLRG TREND EVEN THOUGH ANOTHER COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV NOW DIGGING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO PASS OVERNGT.
H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO ARND 0C OVER THE KEWEENAW BY 12Z TUE WL RESULT
IN A MUCH COOLER OVERNGT WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING TO ARND 40 AND
PERHAPS THE UPR 30S AT SOME OF THE HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. STRONG NW
FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS WL LIMIT THE TEMP DROP.
ALTHOUGH THE SFC-H85 DELTA T BTWN THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS /MID
TO UPR 50S F/IS SUFFICIENT FOR LK CLDS/PCPN...THE INCOMING AIRMASS
WL BE TOO DRY AND THE LLVL FLOW TOO ACYC TO SUPPORT MORE THAN SCT
CLDS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO UPPER GREAT LAKES SLIDES TO
EASTERN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK WHILE HEIGHTS SLOWLY REBOUND FM
NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES. TROUGH WILL ENSURE A COOLER
WEEK WITH FROST/FREEZE OVER PARTS OF CWA TUE NIGHT AND MAYBE WED
NIGHT AS WELL.
ON TUESDAY...COOLER AIR ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO 0C TO -1C BY
AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD BE GUSTY UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR. THOUGH APPROACHING HIGH IS THE DOMINANT
FACTOR...NAM/GFS/GEM-REGIONAL INDICATE HIGHER H85 RH MOVING ACROSS
LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z AND EXPANDING BY 18Z AS THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.
ENVISION FEW-SCT STRATOCU CLOUDS EXPANDING INTO A STRATOCU/CUMULUS
DECK MAINLY CNTRL CWA BY AFTN...THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE REST OF
AFTN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
LOW TO MID 50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND MAY TOUCH 60 DEGREES IN THE FAR
SCNTRL. EVEN THOUGH SWIM RISK WILL BE HIGH ALONG MARQUETTE AND ALGER
COUNTIES...AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW 55 DEGREES WILL PROHIBIT THE
ISSUANCE OF A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT.
NEXT UP IS TUE NIGHT AND THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. UPSHOT IS THE
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL...AT LEAST AWAY FM THE INTERIOR WEST...IS NOT
AS CLEAR CUT AS IT LOOKED THE LAST FEW DAYS. RECENTLY IN THE
MODELS...IT APPEARED THAT THE APPROACHING HIGH WOULD SETTLE RIGHT
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW...RIDGE AXIS STAYS MAINLY OVER WESTERN
UPR MICHIGAN WHILE A LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT NE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AFFECTS
EAST HALF OF CWA /SEE THIS AS 950-900MB WINDS OVER 10 KTS FM NCNTRL
INTO EASTERN CWA. ALSO...WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING AROUND -1C OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND WITH SOME 875MB-850MB
MOISTURE SHOWN ON GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SCT-
BKN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AS DELTA T VALUES WILL BE OVER 15C. BEST
CHANCE FOR BKN CLOUDS WOULD BE OVER FAR NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AND
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVER FOR
THERE AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE KEWEENAW. FOR TEMPS...USED GUIDANCE
THAT SHOWED LOWEST TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S OVER INTERIOR WEST BUT KEPT
READINGS MAINLY MID-UPR 30S WHERE CLOUDS MAY DISRUPT COOLING.
AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL DAY ON WED...ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH
SOME FROST SEEMS PROBABLE FOR WED NIGHT. SETUP IS NO BETTER THAN TUE
NIGHT THOUGH AS HIGH CENTER IS MORE OVER QUEBEC AND THAT LEAVES A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN SO...MIN TEMPS MAY BE
AT LEAST IN LOWER 30S...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS
WED INTO THU SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. THESE
VALUES ARE PRETTY SEASONABLE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER...THOUGH MUCH COOLER
THAN THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SEEN MUCH OF THIS MONTH.
AFTER SOME RAIN TODAY...DRIER TREND THAT BEGAN TO SHOW UP IN THE
MODELS LAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY EXPANDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON WED AND BUILDS FURTHER TO OVER 1040MB IN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY.
RIDGE FM THE HIGH EXPANDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
AS FAR WEST AS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. AT FIRST GLANCE...THIS
SHOULD KEEP MAJORITY OF REGION DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...GFS AND 12Z ECMWF INDICATE THAT DECENT STRENGTH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BREAKING FREE FM THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
WILL SLIDE OVER UPR GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF
NOT NEAR AS DEEP WITH TROUGH AS IT SHOWED WITH 12Z RUN THOUGH. DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE HINTS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
FORCING AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS. OVERALL MOST CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
LACKING LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE SFC HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. IF THERE ENDS UP BEING BETTER CYCLONIC FLOW IN LOW-
LEVELS AS 12Z ECMWF INDICATED...COULD SEE HELP FM LK SUPERIOR FOR
PRECIP AS H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AS LOW AS -3C WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVERHEAD. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.
FINALLY...GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF WITH SECONDARY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN MORE TYPICAL NW TO SE
PROGRESSION LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK /DAYS 8-10/. H85
TEMPS AS LOW AS -9C IN THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR OVER ONTARIO WITH
AROUND -5C OVER UPR MICHIGAN LAST TWO RUNS. NEITHER THE 12Z RUN OR
MOST RECENT 00Z RUN OF ECMWF SHOWED ADDITIONAL TROUGHING THOUGH WITH
RIDGING RE APPEARING INTO NEXT WEEK IN WAKE OF THE WEEKEND
TROUGHING. ECMWF DOES INDICATE TROUGHING AND SIMILAR DEGREE OF COLD
AIR...BUT IT STAYS WELL UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST CANADA MOST OF THE
WEEK. FOR THE FORECAST...CONSENSUS SHOULD COVER IT ATTM. USUALLY DO
NOT GET TOO CONCERNED WITH THESE TYPE OF DETAILS IN THE FAR REACHES
OF EXTENDED AND BEYOND...BUT GIVEN THE VERY WARM SEPTEMBER ABOUT TO
CONCLUDE /POTENTIALLY RECORD WARMEST AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN/...IT IS NOTABLE THAT SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT COOLER
AIRMASSES CLOSE BY AS FIRST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER ARRIVES. OFFICIAL
8-14 DAY AND EXPERIMENTAL 3-4 WEEK FORECASTS FM CPC STILL INDICATING
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL OVERALL THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
A COLD FNT THAT IS APRCHG CMX AND IWD WL PRESS SEWD AND BY SAW BY
NOON. SOME -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LO PRES RUNNING ALONG
THIS BNDRY WL IMPACT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
PSBL AT THOSE SITES WHEN THE -SHRA ARE MOST LIKELY AT THOSE PLACES
FM LATE THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN. CMX IS MOST LIKELY TO MISS THIS
PCPN AND REMAIN VFR. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR IN THE AFTN WL BRING A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD AND THEN SAW. ALTHOUGH ANOTHER COLD
FNT WL SWING THRU TNGT WITH A STRONGER NNW WIND IN ITS WAKE...THE
AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY FOR MORE THAN A FEW CLDS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS THIS MRNG AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW UP
TO 20 KTS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE
FAR EAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT.
EXPECT NNW WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO 25-30 KTS IN ITS WAKE LATE
TONIGHT/TUE. AS A TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE CLOSES IN ON THE AREA ON
TUE NIGHT/WED...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15-20 KTS. ONCE THE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC LATER IN THE WEEK...E WINDS UP TO 20 KTS
WILL DOMINATE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
634 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY DRAPED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND ON INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN OUT AHEAD OF
IT...BUT NOT BRINGING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. SOME FOG
HAS FORMED BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT VISIBILITIES ARE STILL IN THE 3-5
MILE RANGE AND DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GET MUCH WORSE. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY. OF INTEREST ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF WYOMING AND INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SOME DECENTLY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND A FAIR AMOUNT
OF LIGHTNING WITH IT...SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
DAY. THUS...EXPECT THAT THIS PARTICULAR FEATURES IS PROBABLY
STRONGER THAN MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW...AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO
RIPPLE EAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY TODAY. BASED ON
THIS STRONGER FEATURE HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS MY
SOUTHEASTERN CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY...USING THE 06Z HRRR RUN FOR
THE GENERAL PLAN AND HAVE MADE SOME OTHER TWEAKS TO PLACE A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MY NW WISCONSIN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY...GENERALLY FROM 15Z TO 21Z.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
MOST LOCATIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT THE FRONT DROPS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CAN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT WITH CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME 850MB TEMPS IN THE -3 C
RANGE BY 12Z. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR SOME CHILLY TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO EVEN THE UPPER 20S IN SOME OF OUR
COLD SPOTS AND 30S ELSEWHERE. FROST IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. HAVE
LEFT IT TO THE DAY SHIFT TO SEND OUT A FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY AS
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT ANTICIPATE
THAT WE WILL NEED ONE OR BOTH FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TUESDAY TO REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S IN THIS
CHILLY AIRMASS...AND THE DRY AIR TO BRING OUR MIN RH VALUES DOWN
INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO A
WIDE RANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT SOME NOTABLE TRENDS ARE
BEGINNING TO EMERGE. A COOL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
TO NEAR FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS...THEN GENERALLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS HIGH DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BUT ALSO IN
POCKETS ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND MN ARROWHEAD. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD
FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE WED/WED NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST TO EVEN NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE TOWARDS THE BORDERLAND.
WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA
WEDNESDAY...THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THURSDAY AS EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL DUE TO AN 850/700 MB HIGH OVER ONTARIO.
FOR THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...EVEN DISREGARDING THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH HAS RECENTLY
SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. ONE INTERESTING FEATURE ON THE 00Z
GFS IS A LOW THAT DROPS OUT OF EASTERN CANADA AND MOVES WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THE LATEST
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS AS STRONGLY...PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE DEPICTED
SUCH A FEATURE. ONE CONSISTENT FEATURE IS A 850MB HIGH OVER FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WHICH COULD BRING AS COLD AS 0C AIR OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW THIS COLD OVER A RELATIVELY
WARM LAKE COULD PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT /RAIN/ SHOWERS...BUT WITH
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING AREAS OF FOG ARE RESULTING IN IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS AT INL AND HIB...BUT THESE WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY TOWARDS
SUNRISE. MID TO HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS TODAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS AT TIMES IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. JUST WENT WITH VCSH AT
HYR FOR NOW BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AS THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER
APPEAR FARTHER SOUTH. SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT EVERYWHERE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 65 40 55 37 / 10 0 0 0
INL 61 30 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 67 39 59 38 / 20 0 0 0
HYR 67 37 58 29 / 60 0 0 0
ASX 68 40 57 34 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1016 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.UPDATE...
GRIDS ADJUSTED THIS MORNING TO BUMP UP TEMPS...LOWER POPS AND ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE SUNSHINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER
SE TX SUPPORTING A BROAD S/SW FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
GULF COAST REGION. THREE SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE
OCCURRING IN THIS AREA: 1) CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW OVER SE TX/SW LA
AND ADJACENT WATERS...2) OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE IN COUPLED
UPPER JET REGION BETWEEN JET MAXIMA OVER LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...3) IN A BROAD AREA OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 99L. UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THOSE IN THE
ARKLAMISS WANTING/NEEDING RAIN...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THESE AREAS
WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND AREA OF ASCENT OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF LIFTING NE...BUT EXTRAPOLATION AND THE HRRR KEEPS THE
FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO OUR EAST.
MORNING KJAN RAOB SHOWS THAT SIGNIFICANT DRYING HAS OCCURRED
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WITH PW DOWN TO ABOUT 1.6 IN...AND WATER VAPOR
IMPLIES THIS DRY AIR PARTICULARY IN MID AND UPPER LEVELS HAS
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH SOME BREAKS. GIVEN
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND DECENT LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECT THAT SOME MIXING
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE BREAKS IN LOW CLOUDS AND ALLOW FOR SOME
SUN AT TIMES AND A BIT OF LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING. GIVEN THIS HAVE
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER GRIDS DOWN A BIT FOR TODAY AND RAISED TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES. COMBO OF SOME HEATING AND DRIER AIR IN MID/UPPER LEVELS
SHOULD YIELD ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FOR SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER TRENDS AND RECENT HRRR RUNS IMPLY COVERAGE
SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...AND HAVE HENCE LOWERED POPS EVEN A
BIT MORE THAN EARLIER FORECAST. /AEG/
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF CONTINUES TO ROTATE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ALSO...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS IS LOW. THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5-8KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD./15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER
NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA BEFORE OPENING UP
AND SHEARING OUT AS IT EVENTUALLY GETS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE WESTERLIES. FOR NOW HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO
FUNNEL IN AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN REGION NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
(PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES). PER NHC GUIDANCE...IT
APPEARS ANY HYBRID TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MOISTURE CHANNEL WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO NOT POSE CONCERNS FOR THE
ARKLAMISS.
THE HRRR DID A GOOD JOB YESTERDAY MORNING IN SIGNALING OR THE INLAND
DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER CONVECTION ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR (KMEI
OBSERVED > 2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL) AND HAVE FOLLOWED IT AGAIN FOR
TODAY. RECENT RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT MESOSCALE VORTEX OVER
WESTERN AL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT COULD
IMPACT EASTERN MS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AND SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND HAVE CUT
BACK ON GUIDANCE POPS JUST A BIT. WEAK MID LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED
DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT OVERALL TSTM
POTENTIAL. AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
MILD SIDE IN THIS WETTER/CLOUDIER REGIME. /EC/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE SPECIFICS
OF HYBRID GULF LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO (OR VICINITY)
IN THE COMING SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...MODEL CONSENSUS IS QUITE GOOD
THAT DEVELOPMENT EITHER IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR JUST OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL STRENGTHEN A BUILDING UPPER TROUGH DEEP
DOWN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SUCH A PATTERN
SHOULD HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND PUSH
ALL BUT MINUSCULE PRECIP CHANCES EAST OF OUR REGION BY THURSDAY.
DESPITE THE LACK OF A TRULY CHILLY AIR MASS UP NORTH TO LATCH
ONTO...THE PATTERN DEFINITELY HAS A COOL LOOK AND SHOULD BRING MOST
OF THE REGION BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
ONE CONCERN WHICH WILL BARE WATCHING IN THE COMING DAYS IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OWING
TO INCREASED WINDS...RATHER LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY...AND THE
CONTINUED DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER IN MANY LOCATIONS. OF COURSE...IF WE
ARE FORTUNATE...THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINS AROUND THE
AREA OVER NEXT FEW DAYS TO ALLEVIATE MUCH OF THIS CONCERN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DUE TO THIS FACET OF UNCERTAINTY THE HWO WILL BE
LEFT CLEAR IN THIS REGARD FOR THE TIME BEING.
BY NEXT WEEKEND THE NORTH AMERICAN CIRCULATION PATTERN SEEMS TO HOLD
MORE THAN AN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CHAOS THAT REMAINS TO BE WORKED OUT
WITH SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE BY NWP MODELS. REGARDLESS...POTENTIAL OF
A WARMING TREND AND SLOWLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IS STILL DECENT
OVER THIS STRETCH. /BB/
AVIATION...OVERALL...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER POOR AS WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CATEGORY STRATUS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHRA WHICH COULD IMPACT ALL TAF SITES
AT SOME POINT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING IS UNUSUALLY LOW. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 79 69 83 69 / 44 41 51 29
MERIDIAN 78 68 83 67 / 63 66 51 37
VICKSBURG 84 67 84 67 / 42 40 49 27
HATTIESBURG 82 70 85 69 / 61 43 40 21
NATCHEZ 83 69 83 67 / 43 40 44 23
GREENVILLE 83 68 82 68 / 37 42 44 28
GREENWOOD 82 68 81 67 / 41 59 53 33
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AEG/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1135 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE, WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN OVER OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES, AS THE BEST MOISTURE FEED IS IN THIS AREA, AROUND
THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEAR-TERM,
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR.
DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, A MILD AIR MASS, ALONG WITH FURTHER
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, WILL STILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE 70S OVER
MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 400 AM UPDATE...
AFTER GETTING LUCKY FOR MOST OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT BEING CLEAR
ENOUGH TO VIEW THE ECLIPSE, REALITY IS SETTING IN WITH THICK
CLOUDS ON OUR DOORSTEPS WITH SOME SHOWERS NOT FAR BEHIND. FOLLOWED
LATEST HRRR QPF FIELDS AND INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH MID
MORNING FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER UP THROUGH FINGER LAKES.
PRECIP SHOULD MAKE IT TO CNY BUT MAY BREAK UP A BIT BY THE TIME
THAT HAPPENS. LATER TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES DON`T
LOOK ALL THAT GREAT BUT WE CAN`T RULE ANYTHING OUT, ESPECIALLY IN
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AREAS JUST MENTIONED ABOVE. FARTHER SOUTH
ESPECIALLY INTO PA, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH MY GARDEN IS WINDING DOWN DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT/LOW
SUN ANGLE, I AM GETTING EXCITED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN AROUND HERE! RAIN CHANCES GO UP FOR OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO MATCH WELL WITH
OTHER OFFICES ALONG WITH THE FACT LI`S ARE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.
UNLIKE PAST RAIN EVENTS WITH EACH MODEL RUN WE ARE LOOKING AT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS INSTEAD OF LOWER
ONES. IN FACT THE MAIN TREND OF THE 0Z RUNS OF BOTH THE EURO AND
GFS NOT ONLY RAISE RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA IS MUCH SLOWER. ACCORDINGLY I RAISED POPS
ABOVE 70% FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT THROUGH MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY NOW, WE HAVE POPS ABOVE 60% FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. DRIER WEATHER NOW HOLDS OFF UNTIL WED NIGHT. AT
EARLY LOOK AT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE A HALF OF AN INCH UP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES, BUT EXCEEDING AN INCH FROM NEAR
BINGHAMTON SOUTH AND EAST, WHERE PRECIP LINGERS THE LONGEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 PM SUNDAY UPDATE...
THOUGH DIFFERING ON DETAILS...MODELS ARE STARTING TO GET INTO
BETTER LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT...ON THE IDEA OF AN UNSETTLED TROUGHY
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE BY NEXT WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW...CUTOFF LOW
EVOLUTION...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL COASTAL SURFACE LOW...MAY ALLOW
MOISTURE TO START CREEPING IN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...BUT THE END RESULT DOES APPEAR TO BE COOL AND WET PERIODS
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BEFORE THEN...MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THANKS TO FEED OF AIR FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC. A FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE STALLED OUT NOT
TOO FAR SOUTHEAST OF US...SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT
KEEPING FORECAST GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR WV GENERATE SOME LGT SHWRS THIS MRNG OVER THE ERN SITES WHILE
LL MARINE MOISTURE CIRCULATES ARND THE NEW ENG HIPRES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MVFR CIG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE OCNL SHWRS DO
NOT RESULT IN VSBY RESTRICTIONS. HTG SHD ALLOW VFR CIGS TO RETURN
TO THE AREA IN THE LATE MRNG...WHILE THE WV PASSES LTR IN THE DAY
BRINGING THE SHWRS WITH IT. LTR TNGT...MARINE LYR RETURNS THE
MVFR CIGS TO MOST STATIONS. SLY OR SELY FLOW CONTS THRU THE PD.
.OUTLOOK...
TUES-TUES NGT...CHC -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST
CHANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE-TUE NGT.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO VALLEY FOG /MAINLY KELM/.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
943 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND LAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL FED INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A SUBTLE MID LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVES NORTHWARD AND INCREASES LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
LATEST HRRR QPF FIELDS SUGGESTING THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT CROSSES THE REGION FOLLOWED BY A DIMINISHING TREND THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE INCOMING WARMER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S ON THE LAKE PLAINS TODAY WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM A
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
WILL STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH THICKER...LOWER CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SURFACE FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A PLUME OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5IN /MORE THAN 2SD ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL LIE ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE INTO TUESDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE CIRCULATING
AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A
BROAD 500MB TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.
A COMBINATION OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA EXITING THE BASE OF THE 500MB TROUGH WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES RISING OVER 1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF
30-35 KTS. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT IS FORECAST TO CROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE HIGH MOISTURE AIRMASS WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY INTO THE 70S WITH A BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE ONTARIO LAKE PLAINS AND
GENESEE RIVER VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT MID 70S IN THESE WARMER
LOCATIONS.
A BROAD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A PUNCH
OF DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES CLEARING
SKIES AND KNOCKING BACK TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS. THE
INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MIX
GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO MAY LINGER LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH CLEARING FIRST EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE FALL-LIKE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS SLIPPING
BACK TO AROUND 40. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP TO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND URBAN AREAS...WITH LOW 40S TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE SPLIT SUBTROPICAL
AND POLAR JETS DIG STACKED TROUGHS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE
WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING CUT OFF LOWS
DEVELOPING. THE EC LOW JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES KEEPS
ATLANTIC MOISTURE EAST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LEAVING
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK COOL BUT MAINLY DRY WHILE THE GFS LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WOULD ADVECT DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTH
ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD YIELD WETTER AND WARMER WEATHER. THERE
IS A LOT OF ROOM AND TIME FOR MODELS TO BECOME BETTER ALIGNED FOR
NEXT WEEKEND SO JUST INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO ONLY TOP OUT
AROUND 60 WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY GENERATING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH IFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KJHW AND MVFR CIGS AT KIAG.
WHILE IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OR LOWER TO MVFR AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE
WAVE EXITS AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE LARGELY ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE
SOME AREAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF BOTH LAKES WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASING TO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A PERIOD TODAY...THE
RESULTANT HIGHER WAVES WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN OVER CANADIAN
WATERS.
AFTER THAT...A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE LOWER LAKES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING NORTHERLIES BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO BOTH LAKES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
725 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND LAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL FED INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. AN AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A SUBTLE MID LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVES NORTHWARD AND INCREASES LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
LATEST HRRR QPF FIELDS SUGGESTING THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT CROSSES THE REGION FOLLOWED BY A DIMINISHING TREND THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE INCOMING WARMER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S ON THE LAKE PLAINS TODAY WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM A
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
WILL STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH THICKER...LOWER CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PLUME OF DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 1.5IN /MORE THAN 2SD ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL LIE ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE INTO TUESDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE CIRCULATING
AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A
BROAD 500MB TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.
A COMBINATION OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA EXITING THE BASE OF THE 500MB TROUGH WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES RISING OVER 1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF
30-35 KTS. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT IS FORECAST TO CROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE HIGH MOISTURE AIRMASS WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY INTO THE 70S WITH A BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE ONTARIO LAKE PLAINS AND
GENESEE RIVER VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT MID 70S IN THESE WARMER
LOCATIONS.
A BROAD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A PUNCH
OF DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES CLEARING
SKIES AND KNOCKING BACK TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS. THE
INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MIX
GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO MAY LINGER LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH CLEARING FIRST EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE FALL-LIKE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS SLIPPING
BACK TO AROUND 40. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP TO THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND URBAN AREAS...WITH LOW 40S TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE SPLIT SUBTROPICAL
AND POLAR JETS DIG STACKED TROUGHS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE
WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING CUT OFF LOWS
DEVELOPING. THE EC LOW JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES KEEPS
ATLANTIC MOISTURE EAST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LEAVING
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK COOL BUT MAINLY DRY WHILE THE GFS LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WOULD ADVECT DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTH
ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD YIELD WETTER AND WARMER WEATHER. THERE
IS A LOT OF ROOM AND TIME FOR MODELS TO BECOME BETTER ALIGNED FOR
NEXT WEEKEND SO JUST INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOK TO ONLY TOP OUT
AROUND 60 WITH COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTING UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY GENERATING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH IFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KJHW AND MVFR CIGS AT KIAG.
WHILE IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OR LOWER TO MVFR AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE
WAVE EXITS AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE LARGELY ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE
SOME AREAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF BOTH LAKES WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASING TO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A PERIOD TODAY...THE
RESULTANT HIGHER WAVES WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN OVER CANADIAN
WATERS.
AFTER THAT...A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE LOWER LAKES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING NORTHERLIES BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO BOTH LAKES
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...
AFTER GETTING LUCKY FOR MOST OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT BEING CLEAR
ENOUGH TO VIEW THE ECLIPSE, REALITY IS SETTING IN WITH THICK
CLOUDS ON OUR DOORSTEPS WITH SOME SHOWERS NOT FAR BEHIND. FOLLOWED
LATEST HRRR QPF FIELDS AND INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH MID
MORNING FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER UP THROUGH FINGER LAKES.
PRECIP SHOULD MAKE IT TO CNY BUT MAY BREAK UP A BIT BY THE TIME
THAT HAPPENS. LATER TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES DON`T
LOOK ALL THAT GREAT BUT WE CAN`T RULE ANYTHING OUT, ESPECIALLY IN
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AREAS JUST MENTIONED ABOVE. FARTHER SOUTH
ESPECIALLY INTO PA, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH MY GARDEN IS WINDING DOWN DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT/LOW
SUN ANGLE, I AM GETTING EXCITED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN AROUND HERE! RAIN CHANCES GO UP FOR OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO MATCH WELL WITH
OTHER OFFICES ALONG WITH THE FACT LI`S ARE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.
UNLIKE PAST RAIN EVENTS WITH EACH MODEL RUN WE ARE LOOKING AT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS INSTEAD OF LOWER
ONES. IN FACT THE MAIN TREND OF THE 0Z RUNS OF BOTH THE EURO AND
GFS NOT ONLY RAISE RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA IS MUCH SLOWER. ACCORDINGLY I RAISED POPS
ABOVE 70% FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT THROUGH MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY NOW, WE HAVE POPS ABOVE 60% FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. DRIER WEATHER NOW HOLDS OFF UNTIL WED NIGHT. AT
EARLY LOOK AT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE A HALF OF AN INCH UP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES, BUT EXCEEDING AN INCH FROM NEAR
BINGHAMTON SOUTH AND EAST, WHERE PRECIP LINGERS THE LONGEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
200 PM SUNDAY UPDATE...
THOUGH DIFFERING ON DETAILS...MODELS ARE STARTING TO GET INTO
BETTER LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT...ON THE IDEA OF AN UNSETTLED TROUGHY
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE BY NEXT WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW...CUTOFF LOW
EVOLUTION...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL COASTAL SURFACE LOW...MAY ALLOW
MOISTURE TO START CREEPING IN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...BUT THE END RESULT DOES APPEAR TO BE COOL AND WET PERIODS
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BEFORE THEN...MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THANKS TO FEED OF AIR FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC. A FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE STALLED OUT NOT
TOO FAR SOUTHEAST OF US...SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT
KEEPING FORECAST GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPR WV GENERATE SOME LGT SHWRS THIS MRNG OVER THE ERN SITES WHILE
LL MARINE MOISTURE CIRCULATES ARND THE NEW ENG HIPRES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A MVFR CIG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE OCNL SHWRS DO
NOT RESULT IN VSBY RESTRICTIONS. HTG SHD ALLOW VFR CIGS TO RETURN
TO THE AREA IN THE LATE MRNG...WHILE THE WV PASSES LTR IN THE DAY
BRINGING THE SHWRS WITH IT. LTR TNGT...MARINE LYR RETURNSRETURNING
THE MVFR CIGS TO MOST STATIONS. SLY OR SELY FLOW CONTS THRU THE
PD.
.OUTLOOK...
TUES-TUES NGT...CHC -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BEST
CHANCE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE-TUE NGT.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO VALLEY FOG /MAINLY KELM/.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1037 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP INTO THE
REGION TODAY... BETWEEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN
WEATHER CONDITIONS... HOWEVER A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO WET AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. VERY MOIST AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
PER THE BLENDED TPW IMAGERY. A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON AND GIVEN SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION (ALREADY SEEING THIS ACROSS EASTERN NC PER THE SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS)...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FROM EAST TO WEST (FOLLOWED THE HRRR
CLOSELY FOR THE TIMING). THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE COASTAL PLAIN SEEING
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND FURTHER WEST BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 3 AM...COLUMN REMAINS VERY MOIST THIS
MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS NOT
QUITE WHAT IT`S BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WE`RE IN GRADUAL
TRANSITION AWAY FROM THE DYING WEDGE REGIME TO AN ATYPICALLY HUMID
(ESP FOR LATE SEPTEMBER) AIR MASS. THE PARENT HIGH WHICH BROUGHT THE
DAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC YET STILL NOSING WEST AND SW INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS. THE
STABLE POOL OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT HAS WEAKENED... AND THE AIR MASS
HAS BECOME MORE HOMOGENEOUS ACROSS THE CWA... DEMONSTRATED BY
TEMP/DEWPOINT RANGES OF JUST AROUND 4 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL NC...
AND UNIFORM OBSERVED LIFTED INDICES AND CINH. MUCH OF THIS PAST
EVENING`S LIGHT PRECIP DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS SHIFTED WELL
NW OUT OF THE AREA... LEAVING JUST WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PERHAPS A
FEW ISOLATED DRIZZLE PATCHES. THIS RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS... HOWEVER AREAS OF SHOWERS
NOW JUST OFF THE NC COAST ARE ON TRACK TO TRANSLATE WEST OR WNW INTO
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THEN INTO THE PIEDMONT FROM MID/LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... WITH COVERAGE FILLING IN AS HEATING ALLOWS
FOR A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT (WEAK)
DESTABILIZATION... WITH LIFT POTENTIALLY AUGMENTED BY A WEAK WAVE
TRACKING NE OVER ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW POPS THIS
MORNING... TRENDING UP TO LIKELY EAST AND CHANCE WEST... WITH HIGHER
POPS THEN PUSHING WNW INTO THE WRN PIEDMONT AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING HOURS... A PATTERN SUGGESTED BY RECENT RUNS OF BOTH LARGE
SCALE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING THE SREF/GFS/3 KM
NAMRR AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP WARM
LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN LCL-TO-FREEZING-LEVEL DEPTH OVER 4
KM... ALONG WITH PW VALUES OF 2.0-2.3 INCHES... SO ANY SHOWERS
FORMING TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. FORECAST
MUCAPE FOR TODAY IS UNIMPRESSIVE (UNDER 1000 J/KG... MOST OF WHICH
IS BELOW THE -10C LEVEL) WITH GENERALLY SUB-20-KT DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR... SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME... ALTHOUGH A
STRIKE OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT THE
AREA OF BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE TO CONTINUE SHIFTING WNW TOWARD THE
FOOTHILLS DURING THE EVENING... SO WILL TREND POPS DOWN FROM EAST TO
WEST TONIGHT... RESULTING IN 30-40% CHANCES NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING
DOWN TO JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 OVERNIGHT. STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND TRAJECTORIES ALONG WITH PERSISTENCE... ALTHOUGH A LIGHT
BREEZE FROM THE NE -- AS MODELS SUGGEST -- MAY INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL LEAVE IN A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. EXPECT
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NW (WHERE THE AIR IS STILL A BIT MORE STABLE
AND MORE RESISTANT TO MIXING AND THUS SHOULD SEE LESS SUNSHINE) TO
AROUND 80-82 EAST OF HIGHWAY 1... WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MILD
LOWS TONIGHT OF 67-71... AROUND 10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...
CONTINUED MOIST WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS... AND PERHAPS A STORM
OR TWO. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISS VALLEY TO LA WILL CONTINUE TO TILT SLOWLY... RESULTING IN
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL VORTICITY MOVING FROM THE NW GULF
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE LOW
LEVEL ATLANTIC INFLOW SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE WITH A REDUCED
FETCH... A FUNCTION OF WHAT IS NOW TD #11 AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY NW/NNW
ON ITS ANTICIPATED TRACK TOWARD THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NC. PW IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AT 2.0-2.3 INCHES... WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS... AND MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
INSTABILITY TUE AFTERNOON WITHIN PERSISTENT HIGH THETA-E ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND FIELD AND MARGINAL DPVA...
WE SHOULD SEE DECENT UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE BROAD JET FROM THE GULF INTO THE TN VALLEY. WILL TREND
POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON... WANING
GRADUALLY IN THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME BUT STAYING AT 30-50%... WITH
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES SHIFTING WNW INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS WITH TIME. SLIGHTLY BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED...
STILL MARGINAL THOUGH... SO HAVE INCLUDED JUST A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 75-83 AND LOWS 66-71... BOTH ABOVE
NORMAL... WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING FIRM. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM MONDAY...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS HIGH AS CAN BE ADVERTISED
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PLENTY OF SPREAD AND EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE CONFLICTING ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THE IMPORTANT WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS. THE MAIN
WEATHER HAZARDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A LOW END HEAVY RAIN THREAT...
BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY BE MORE OF A HELP TO CURRENT DROUGHT
STATUS THAN IT WOULD BE A THREAT FOR FLOODING. THE QPF MID TO LATE
WEEK IS THE MAIN QUESTION AS ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF THE MODELS INDICATE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN INLAND WITH OVERRUNNING RAINS AGAIN THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... WHICH 70 PERCENT OF THE MODELS SUPPORT THE HEAVY SWATH
OF QPF ALONG OR JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
ONE THING SEEMS TO BE MORE CERTAIN SHOULD BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AGAIN AS ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH INTO
NC/SC THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS OCCURS AS A TROUGH ALOFT AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST BY MOST MODELS
TO BRING A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THAT BEGAN LATE
LAST WEEK. A RETURN TO A PROLONGED NE FLOW... CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS... AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED THU-SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...
MOIST AND DEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOSTLY ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS TODAY... ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO...
WHERE IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH
14Z... ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE. FARTHER EAST AT RDU/RWI/FAY...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH 14Z... ALTHOUGH A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR
IS POSSIBLE. SOON AFTER 14Z... CIGS AT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH THE MVFR CATEGORY... LASTING UNTIL AROUND 18Z
OR 19Z WHEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED... ALTHOUGH ANY
SCT/BKN CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE BASED AT 2500-3000 FT AGL. A
TREND BACK TO MVFR TO IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED BY MID EVENING (AFTER 00Z
TUE)... LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR FOG
FORMING OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TUE: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RULE THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUE... ALTHOUGH RWI MAY STAY MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITH PATCHY FOG. INT/GSO SHOULD STAY MVFR THROUGH TUE BUT
RDU/RWI/FAY SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR THEN PERHAPS LOW-END VFR TUE
AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE
TUE EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK WED. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY WED
BUT SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WED/WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND
STALL TO OUR SE INTO FRI... POTENTIALLY BRINGING A RETURN TO
PREDOMINANTLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WITHIN AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE.
-GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...KRD/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
640 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP INTO THE
REGION TODAY... BETWEEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN
WEATHER CONDITIONS... HOWEVER A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO WET AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM MONDAY...
COLUMN REMAINS VERY MOIST THIS MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS NOT QUITE WHAT IT`S BEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. WE`RE IN GRADUAL TRANSITION AWAY FROM THE DYING
WEDGE REGIME TO AN ATYPICALLY HUMID (ESP FOR LATE SEPTEMBER) AIR
MASS. THE PARENT HIGH WHICH BROUGHT THE DAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND IS
NOW CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE NW ATLANTIC YET STILL NOSING WEST AND
SW INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS. THE STABLE POOL OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT HAS
WEAKENED... AND THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MORE HOMOGENEOUS ACROSS THE
CWA... DEMONSTRATED BY TEMP/DEWPOINT RANGES OF JUST AROUND 4 DEGREES
ACROSS CENTRAL NC... AND UNIFORM OBSERVED LIFTED INDICES AND CINH.
MUCH OF THIS PAST EVENING`S LIGHT PRECIP DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE HAS SHIFTED WELL NW OUT OF THE AREA... LEAVING JUST
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED DRIZZLE PATCHES. THIS
RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS... HOWEVER AREAS OF SHOWERS NOW JUST OFF THE NC COAST ARE ON
TRACK TO TRANSLATE WEST OR WNW INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THEN INTO
THE PIEDMONT FROM MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... WITH
COVERAGE FILLING IN AS HEATING ALLOWS FOR A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUDS
AND SUBSEQUENT (WEAK) DESTABILIZATION... WITH LIFT POTENTIALLY
AUGMENTED BY A WEAK WAVE TRACKING NE OVER ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT LOW POPS THIS MORNING... TRENDING UP TO LIKELY EAST AND
CHANCE WEST... WITH HIGHER POPS THEN PUSHING WNW INTO THE WRN
PIEDMONT AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING HOURS... A PATTERN SUGGESTED BY
RECENT RUNS OF BOTH LARGE SCALE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
INCLUDING THE SREF/GFS/3 KM NAMRR AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP WARM LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN LCL-TO-
FREEZING-LEVEL DEPTH OVER 4 KM... ALONG WITH PW VALUES OF 2.0-2.3
INCHES... SO ANY SHOWERS FORMING TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. FORECAST MUCAPE FOR TODAY IS UNIMPRESSIVE (UNDER
1000 J/KG... MOST OF WHICH IS BELOW THE -10C LEVEL) WITH GENERALLY
SUB-20-KT DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR... SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER AT
THIS TIME... ALTHOUGH A STRIKE OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT THE AREA OF BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE TO CONTINUE
SHIFTING WNW TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE EVENING... SO WILL
TREND POPS DOWN FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT... RESULTING IN 30-40%
CHANCES NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING DOWN TO JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 1 OVERNIGHT. STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY LATE
TONIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TRAJECTORIES ALONG WITH
PERSISTENCE... ALTHOUGH A LIGHT BREEZE FROM THE NE -- AS MODELS
SUGGEST -- MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL LEAVE IN A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NW (WHERE THE AIR
IS STILL A BIT MORE STABLE AND MORE RESISTANT TO MIXING AND THUS
SHOULD SEE LESS SUNSHINE) TO AROUND 80-82 EAST OF HIGHWAY 1... WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MILD LOWS TONIGHT OF 67-71... AROUND 10 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...
CONTINUED MOIST WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS... AND PERHAPS A STORM
OR TWO. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISS VALLEY TO LA WILL CONTINUE TO TILT SLOWLY... RESULTING IN
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL VORTICITY MOVING FROM THE NW GULF
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE LOW
LEVEL ATLANTIC INFLOW SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE WITH A REDUCED
FETCH... A FUNCTION OF WHAT IS NOW TD #11 AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY NW/NNW
ON ITS ANTICIPATED TRACK TOWARD THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NC. PW IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AT 2.0-2.3 INCHES... WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS... AND MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
INSTABILITY TUE AFTERNOON WITHIN PERSISTENT HIGH THETA-E ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND FIELD AND MARGINAL DPVA...
WE SHOULD SEE DECENT UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE BROAD JET FROM THE GULF INTO THE TN VALLEY. WILL TREND
POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON... WANING
GRADUALLY IN THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME BUT STAYING AT 30-50%... WITH
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES SHIFTING WNW INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS WITH TIME. SLIGHTLY BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED...
STILL MARGINAL THOUGH... SO HAVE INCLUDED JUST A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 75-83 AND LOWS 66-71... BOTH ABOVE
NORMAL... WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING FIRM. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM MONDAY...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS HIGH AS CAN BE ADVERTISED
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PLENTY OF SPREAD AND EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE CONFLICTING ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THE IMPORTANT WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS. THE MAIN
WEATHER HAZARDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A LOW END HEAVY RAIN THREAT...
BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY BE MORE OF A HELP TO CURRENT DROUGHT
STATUS THAN IT WOULD BE A THREAT FOR FLOODING. THE QPF MID TO LATE
WEEK IS THE MAIN QUESTION AS ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF THE MODELS INDICATE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN INLAND WITH OVERRUNNING RAINS AGAIN THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... WHICH 70 PERCENT OF THE MODELS SUPPORT THE HEAVY SWATH
OF QPF ALONG OR JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
ONE THING SEEMS TO BE MORE CERTAIN SHOULD BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AGAIN AS ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH INTO
NC/SC THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS OCCURS AS A TROUGH ALOFT AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST BY MOST MODELS
TO BRING A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THAT BEGAN LATE
LAST WEEK. A RETURN TO A PROLONGED NE FLOW... CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS... AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED THU-SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...
MOIST AND DEEP LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
MOSTLY ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS TODAY... ESPECIALLY AT INT/GSO...
WHERE IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH
14Z... ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE. FARTHER EAST AT RDU/RWI/FAY...
MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH 14Z... ALTHOUGH A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR
IS POSSIBLE. SOON AFTER 14Z... CIGS AT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH THE MVFR CATEGORY... LASTING UNTIL AROUND 18Z
OR 19Z WHEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED... ALTHOUGH ANY
SCT/BKN CLOUDS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE BASED AT 2500-3000 FT AGL. A
TREND BACK TO MVFR TO IFR CIGS IS EXPECTED BY MID EVENING (AFTER 00Z
TUE)... LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR FOG
FORMING OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TUE: IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RULE THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUE... ALTHOUGH RWI MAY STAY MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITH PATCHY FOG. INT/GSO SHOULD STAY MVFR THROUGH TUE BUT
RDU/RWI/FAY SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR THEN PERHAPS LOW-END VFR TUE
AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE
TUE EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK WED. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY WED
BUT SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY BRING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WED/WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND
STALL TO OUR SE INTO FRI... POTENTIALLY BRINGING A RETURN TO
PREDOMINANTLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WITHIN AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE.
-GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1008 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL PUSH OUT TO
SEA TODAY...WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FOCUSES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FOCUS ON THE FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAIN
TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW AFFECTS
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHEARING 5H TROF LIFTING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RETREATING OFFSHORE 5H RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED 850 MB
CONVERGENCE ZONE COINCIDENT WITH 25-30KT JET AND PW POOLING TO
1.5" WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS SHOWERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS. EARLIER HI RES HRRR WAS NOT HANDLING
THIS FORCING AND SHOWERS ADEQUATELY AS IT PROPOGATES
EASTWARD...BUT HAS NOW CAUGHT UP TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. BUMPED
POPS AND QPF UPWARD FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCALLY ONE
TO TWO TENTHS TOTAL FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY PROPOGATE EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS DISPLACED
EASTWARD.
THE MOIST SERLY LLVL FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES
OVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO THE U70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WEAK FORCING...AS INFERRED BY MDL 500-300MB QVEC DIV FIELDS...SHOULD
RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY RAIN TONIGHT...DESPITE POSITIVE PWAT
ANOMALIES OF 2SD PER LATEST GEFS. CLOUD COVER AND SURGING DWPT
WILL TRANSLATE TO A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE SEPT...WITH MINS BTWN
60-65F.
A MORE SIG SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SE INTO THE GRT LKS ON
TUESDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD NW PA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SURGING PWATS...COMBINED W/APPROACH OF
SHORTWAVE...SHOULD PROMOTE NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA...ESP DURING THE PM
HOURS. BASED ON LATEST ENSEMBLE OUTPUT...HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS
THE BOARD. DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BE SEVERAL
DEG ABV AVERAGE WITH MID SUMMER-LIKE DWPTS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN
WARMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SIG RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL PA
TUES NIGHT/WED...AS SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH PLUME
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWATS NR 3SD ABV NORMAL...COMBINED WITH
MDL INSTABILITY AND SLOW MOVING FRONT SUPPORT THE IDEA OF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD 1+ INCH AMTS...WITH MUCH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMTS. GIVEN
THE RECENT DRYNESS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING NOT A CONCERN. HOWEVER...WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO.
CONFIDENCE IN LINGERING WET WX APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS
CENTRAL PA LATE THIS WEEK...AS ALL MDLS HAVE CONVERGED ON IDEA OF
A CUT OFF LOW FORMING OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW CRAWLING
UP THE MID ATL COAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE THU-SAT TIME
FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE...NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
TEMPS BLW CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/AREAS MVFR COVERING CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 5KFT AGL
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY...ESP WEST WHERE A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE MORE
DRAMATICALLY...LIKELY REACHING VFR FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS -SHRA WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF
CWA.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF
GENERALLY 5-10MPH.
LOW CIGS REDEVELOP AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
REDUCTIONS. LOWER CIGS CONTINUE INTO TUE...WITH AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVING IN.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS LIKELY...ESP NW HALF.
TUE NIGHT...LOW CIGS/SCT SHOWERS.
WED...LOW CIGS NW MTNS EARLY. CHC SHOWERS SOUTH.
THU...NO SIG WX.
FRI...CHC OF SHOWERS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
624 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...
12Z TAFS...OVERCAST VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCT
-SHRA DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TONIGHT WITH MAINLY MVFR BY 06Z AND MAINLY IFR
CIGS/VSBYS BY 10Z.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/
SHORT TERM...IT WAS A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS MID
TN...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE PLATEAU. WX FEATURES WE
ARE WATCHING FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE TX GULF COAST...AND A TROPICAL LOW
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOWED DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHOWERS STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF.
FOR TODAY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
MUGGY DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL PUSH INTO TN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REACH AROUND 2
INCHES BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...IMPULSES WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TX UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TROPICAL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTH FL TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST...BUT MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD WELL NWWD TO THE TN VALLEY. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND ONE HALF INCH OVER OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TO MORE THAN 1 INCH OVER THE SOUTH. LOCALLY GREATER
AMOUNTS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTH AND
PLATEAU AS WELL.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE.
LONG TERM...COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DIPPING INTO THE 50S WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH WOULD BE JUST A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
LINGER...POSSIBLY KEEPING SOME SHOWERS AROUND FOR THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND REGION LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM
MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE DETAILS.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/
AVIATION UPDATE...
RAIN ACTIVITY HAS BEEN UNDERWHELMING THIS EVENING AND HRRR DOES
NOT PAINT A WET PICTURE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOOK
OUT VCSH AT ALL THREE TERMINALS UNTIL MORNING WHERE GUIDANCE BUMPS
POPS SLIGHTLY. BR WILL BE AN ISSUE AT CKV AND CSV OVERNIGHT. THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT OMEGA AND RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE E/SE UNDER 5 KTS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 81 66 78 65 / 40 80 90 50
CLARKSVILLE 81 66 78 63 / 30 60 80 40
CROSSVILLE 77 64 74 63 / 30 80 100 60
COLUMBIA 80 65 79 65 / 40 80 90 50
LAWRENCEBURG 79 65 79 65 / 50 80 90 50
WAVERLY 81 65 79 64 / 30 70 80 40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
...COOLER WEATHER MOVING INTO THE REGION...
CURRENTLY...
COOL FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ON KPUX AT 3 PM RUNNING
NEARLY E-W FROM JUST N OF KPUB TO JUST N OF EADS. NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY WINDS WERE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH WHILE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY EASTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED. A LINE OF WEAK CUMULUS WERE
NOTED WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS W WY/NW CO THIS AFTERNOON AND IT
IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL BRING THE FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS LATER TODAY
AND INTO THIS EVENING.
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS VARY ON INTENSITY AND
LOCATION...BUT THERES A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES BEING GENERALLY N OF HIGHWAY 50. HRRR IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A CLUSTER OF WEAK STORMS FORMING UP IN
EL PASO COUNTY AND THEN DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HRRR HAS BEEN HANGING ONTO THIS SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL RUNS...BUT
BELIEVE IT MAY BE OVERDONE AS COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE.
AS FOR CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT WE WILL SEE A BROKEN DECK
DEVELOP BUT BELIEVE ANY CIG WILL MAINLY BE A MID LVL DECK AS PER
SOUNDINGS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LOWER CLOUDS UP IN N EL PASO COUNTY
AND MAYBE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY NE WINDS DEVELOP SOON OVER THE EL
PASO/PUEBLO COUNTY REGION AND LAST INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT
SURGES SOUTH.
TOMORROW...
MOS PRODUCTS SHOW RATHER HIGH POPS TOMORROW ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND FORCING...PRECIP WILL OCCUR BUT I AM A BIT HESITANT
ON GOING AS HIGH AS MOS GUIDANCE. FOR NOW PAINTED THE GREATER I-25
CORRIDOR REGION IN SCATTERED POPS WITH MORE ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE RATON MESA REGION
AS FOR TIMING...SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION...AND THE AREA OF PRECIP WILL INCREASE
AS IT MOVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DOWN THE S MTN RANGE.
THE BIG NEWS TOMORROW WILL BE THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
FINALLY RETURN TO THE AREA...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S ACROSS
N EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL AS COOLER AIR WILL NOT GET INTO THE LARGER
VALLEYS. WILL LIKELY SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION
TOMORROW. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO NEW
MEXICO. MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP SOME PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN
KANSAS OVERNIGHT WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR NORTH.
BELIEVE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AND
HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS WITH DEW
POINTS FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH FORECAST 500MB WINDS AROUND 30
KNOTS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR STRONGER STORMS. SHORTWAVE
APPEARS TO BE LACKING WHICH CAN HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION...GIVEN THE WEAKER AUTUMN SOLAR HEATING. HAVE SOME
ISOLATED POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS TO DEVELOP.
.THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR A DRY AND WARM
DAY.
.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE A SHORTWAVE
MOVING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE ON THE PLAINS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. BEST FORCING WILL MOSTLY BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. KEPT POPS ONLY IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE LOW. THE
MODEL DIFFERENCE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED STARTING SATURDAY. EC AND
CANADIAN HAVE THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY. A MUCH STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN PROGRESSES INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
MONDAY. THIS IS A WARMER SOLUTION WITH MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
MARTY MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE GFS LACKS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE
AND IT HAS AN UPPER LOW STALLING OVER COLORADO. THIS WOULD PROVIDE
A MUCH COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION. WPC SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE THE
BLEND OF THE TWO AND PREDICTABILITY IS BELOW AVERAGE. CR EXTENDED
GRIDS ARE A DECENT COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND ONLY
TWEAKED THE GRIDS FOR CONSISTENCY. WITH A TROUGH NEARBY...THIS
WEEKEND COULD BE COOLER WITH MORE AUTUMN LIKE TEMPERATURES.
--PGW--
--PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT MON SEP 28 2015
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS.
A COOL FRONT WAS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVER KCOS AND POSSIBLY KPUB. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER KCOS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CIGS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BUT SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY MID LVL.
TOMORROW...SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLD TSRA ARE LIKELY AT KCOS AND
POSSIBLY AT KPUB. SHOWERS WILL FORM RELATIVELY EARLY (LATE MORNING?)
AND MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DOWN THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION. BEST CHANCE
OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE.
KALS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1231 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHEASTERN STATES OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO
SEA AND THE LOW SHOULD DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE COAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG IT. ONE OF THE LOWS IS
ANTICIPATED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES EASTERN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND, PULLING THE FRONT FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO THE CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW AND A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. EXPECT THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING, WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THERE IS GREATER MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT,
SO EXPECTING A DRY DAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
WHERE THE NAM AND HRRR INDICATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE. CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIS, SO HAVE
INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST ALONG
THE COAST. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO REDUCE SKY COVER AND
INCREASE MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF I-95.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE REPLACED BY EVEN MORE MOIST AIR
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.
WITH ADDITIONAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE COULD BE SOME FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.
WE`VE INCLUDED FOG ONCE AGAIN IN THE GRIDS ACROSS THOSE AREAS
WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY BE LOWER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AS CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER
OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. WARM HUMID AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE
INTO OUR REGION WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN OUR COUNTIES IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A LESS PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH THE COLD FRONT. IT NOW APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL
PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING OFF
THE COAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH AND EXCEED 2
INCHES IN MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. ALSO, WE HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LIFT WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SEEMS FAIRLY ROBUST. GENERAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO SEEM POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF OUR
REGION. BEING THAT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY, OUR
THINKING IS THAT WE WILL SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LOW.
CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD LINGER DURING THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD WITH THE FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY REMAINS
QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST
REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.
WE WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF A STRENGTHENING LOW FINALLY BEGINNING
TO PULL THE FRONT FARTHER OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. IT MAY
ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME CLEARING TO BEGIN WORKING INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST AT THAT TIME.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR AT DAYBREAK. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED,
WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST, WHERE ACY HAS BEEN DOWN
TO 1/4SM ATTMS. THE FOG SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND 15Z. HOWEVER, THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SITES THROUGH MID
MORNING, THEN BEGIN LIFTING TO MVFR, THEN VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER A PERIOD OF VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING,
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BACK TO MVFR DURING THE EVENING HOURS,
AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, FOG MAY BE
MORE EXTENSIVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
EASTERLY, THEN SOUTHEASTERLY LATER IN THE DAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...RAIN DEVELOPING AND BECOMING HEAVY
AT TIMES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN, MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF KPHL.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...
AS THE FLOW RELAXES ACROSS THE AREA, WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 25
KNOTS. HOWEVER, SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE WATERS. THEREFORE
WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, BUT HAVE CONVERTED IT TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 4 TO 6 FEET.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND ON DELAWARE BAY DUE TO AN
INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 12 FEET. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND APPROACH
THE MINOR FLOOD LEVEL. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT EXPECT THE LEVELS TO
REACH CRITERIA REQUIRED TO ISSUE A FLOOD ADVISORY.
A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT, WE MAY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AT THAT TIME. ALSO, BEACH
EROSION IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH WAVES, MODERATE PERIOD SWELL, AND A
STEADY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A HIGH RISK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AFTER TODAY, THERE MAY BE A WEAK ENOUGH FLOW ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO HAVE THE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT RISK LESS THAN HIGH.
THE SURF ZONE FORECAST ENDS WITH THE MORNING FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY THE 30TH.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
603 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
Original shield of lower clouds has been contracting throughout the
day, and was basically limited to areas from Peoria to Chicago this
afternoon. Remainder of the CWA has seen clouds more of a diurnal
nature, which has allowed enough sunshine to get temperatures into
the lower 80s. So far the showers have remained extremely isolated.
Precipitation threat for the forecast area tonight will be coming
from a couple different directions. Across the southeast CWA, some
upper level energy will continue to surge northward up the
Mississippi River as the upper low over east Texas lifts northeast
and starts to open up. Showers should remain isolated this evening,
before rain chances start to ramp up late night as the energy gets
closer. Could be a rumble or two of thunder in the far southeast
late tonight, as the RAP shows lifted index values falling to near
zero, but chance is too small at the moment to include in the
forecast. Across the northwest CWA, the main player will be the cold
front which currently is pushing through northwest Iowa. Arrival of
the frontal boundary will be after 3 AM, and most of the rain will
be post-frontal, so will only carry some slight 20-30% PoP`s
northwest of the Illinois River late tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
A cold front will cross from near I-72 to start the day Tuesday to
near the southern tip of Illinois by evening. At the same time, low
pressure over the south central states will drift toward the
southeastern U.S., helping to combine enough moisture, lift, and
instability into mainly the southern half of Illinois for showers
and isolated thunderstorms. As a result...keeping chances for
showers/isolated thunder south of I-72 for Tuesday...with chances of
showers diminishing to the north through the day. Highs will
feature a strong gradient across central IL, ranging from the upper
60s in Galesburg to near 80 in Lawrenceville as cooler and drier air
moves in behind the front. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s to start
the day to slip into the low to mid 50s behind the front over
northern counties Tue afternoon. Breezy north-northeast winds behind
the front will increase...reaching 10-15 mph with gusts into the 20
mph range.
Fairly persistent high pressure will settle into the Great Lakes
Region for the remainder of the work week...promoting an extended
period of breezy northeast winds and mostly sunny skies. Highs will
be in the upper 60s and low 70s through Friday with lows mainly in
40s.
There remains fairly poor model agreement over the weekend into
early next week...with a weak trough passing through the region in
the GFS...but a building ridge into the Plains and upper Midwest in
the ECMWF. Neither would have a good chance for precipitation and
forecast is therefore dry. Both would feature lighter winds.
Temperatures likely will feature minimal trend through the weekend
and kept highs in the 60s and lows mid-upper 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Tuesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
Lots of mid clouds around 8kft still over the area, but based on
observation trends and satellite loops, believe the lower mid
clouds will dissipate quickly this evening and leave higher mid
clouds or high clouds over the area remainder of the night. So
will go with mid clouds around 12-15kft for the night with light
and variable winds. Then tomorrow, after the front has moved
through, scattered showers will be possible at all sites and winds
will increase out of the north-northeast...behind the front. With
light pcpn and vis decreasing, expecting MVFR cigs below 3kft at
all sites during the day tomorrow.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Auten
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
252 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
Original shield of lower clouds has been contracting throughout the
day, and was basically limited to areas from Peoria to Chicago this
afternoon. Remainder of the CWA has seen clouds more of a diurnal
nature, which has allowed enough sunshine to get temperatures into
the lower 80s. So far the showers have remained extremely isolated.
Precipitation threat for the forecast area tonight will be coming
from a couple different directions. Across the southeast CWA, some
upper level energy will continue to surge northward up the
Mississippi River as the upper low over east Texas lifts northeast
and starts to open up. Showers should remain isolated this evening,
before rain chances start to ramp up late night as the energy gets
closer. Could be a rumble or two of thunder in the far southeast
late tonight, as the RAP shows lifted index values falling to near
zero, but chance is too small at the moment to include in the
forecast. Across the northwest CWA, the main player will be the cold
front which currently is pushing through northwest Iowa. Arrival of
the frontal boundary will be after 3 AM, and most of the rain will
be post-frontal, so will only carry some slight 20-30% PoP`s
northwest of the Illinois River late tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
A cold front will cross from near I-72 to start the day Tuesday to
near the southern tip of Illinois by evening. At the same time, low
pressure over the south central states will drift toward the
southeastern U.S., helping to combine enough moisture, lift, and
instability into mainly the southern half of Illinois for showers
and isolated thunderstorms. As a result...keeping chances for
showers/isolated thunder south of I-72 for Tuesday...with chances of
showers diminishing to the north through the day. Highs will
feature a strong gradient across central IL, ranging from the upper
60s in Galesburg to near 80 in Lawrenceville as cooler and drier air
moves in behind the front. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s to start
the day to slip into the low to mid 50s behind the front over
northern counties Tue afternoon. Breezy north-northeast winds behind
the front will increase...reaching 10-15 mph with gusts into the 20
mph range.
Fairly persistent high pressure will settle into the Great Lakes
Region for the remainder of the work week...promoting an extended
period of breezy northeast winds and mostly sunny skies. Highs will
be in the upper 60s and low 70s through Friday with lows mainly in
40s.
There remains fairly poor model agreement over the weekend into
early next week...with a weak trough passing through the region in
the GFS...but a building ridge into the Plains and upper Midwest in
the ECMWF. Neither would have a good chance for precipitation and
forecast is therefore dry. Both would feature lighter winds.
Temperatures likely will feature minimal trend through the weekend
and kept highs in the 60s and lows mid-upper 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
Still a bit of MVFR conditions lingering around KBMI/KPIA, but
this area continues to contract and ceilings will lift over the
next couple hours. Main concern will be in the period after 10Z,
when a cold front arrives from the northwest. Ceilings expected to
fall below 3,000 feet with the arrival of the front, and remain
that way the remainder of the forecast period. A few showers may
precede the front, but most will be after its passage. Winds
expected to shift to the north-northeast and increase to near 10
knots Tuesday morning behind the front.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
117 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.AVIATION...
CIGS CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST
SITES ARE NOW IN THE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE
MORE STRATUS DEVELOPS AFTER 06Z. WE MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR
THOSE SITES THAT DO SEE STRATUS PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PD...BUT
CIGS WILL MOST LIKELY HANG IN THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY
OF FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS IN FOR OUR TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF THE
PD. OTHERWISE...NELY WINDS 5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PD.
/12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/
UPDATE...
ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER FOR THE AFTERNOON...EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...
VERY NICE AND COASTALLY HUMID WITH MID TO UPPER 70S. OUR SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH OUR RADAR FAIRLY QUIET AND
GETTING QUIETER. THE OCCASIONALLY CONVERGENT FORCING REMAINS GOOD
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO UNFOLD WITH HEATING OF LOW TO MID 80S.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT MAY TURN OUT TO BE EVEN MORE PRODUCTIVE THAN
MODELED AT THIS TIME FOR THE EAST. SOME NEW 12Z DATA IS
ENCOURAGING ON HRRR AND NAM. AT ANY RATE THIS SYSTEM IS OCCLUDED
AND SURROUNDING ITSELF WITH DRY AIR...CUT OFF NOW FROM THE RICH
TROPICAL CONNECTION OF YESTERDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TOO
LIGHT FOR MOST EVERYONE...BUT WITH LUCKY FEW POSSIBLY SEEING AN
INCH OR THREE. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
FALL ALOFT HEIGHT WISE AT LEAST COOLING THE 90 DEGREE HEAT OF
LATE. A ZONAL PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH BY THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP IN NEXT MONTHS BUCKET. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 86 69 88 / 30 40 20 10
MLU 69 85 68 87 / 50 40 20 20
DEQ 66 85 65 87 / 20 30 20 0
TXK 68 84 67 86 / 30 40 20 0
ELD 67 84 66 85 / 40 40 20 10
TYR 69 87 69 89 / 20 30 20 0
GGG 68 86 68 89 / 30 40 20 10
LFK 67 85 68 89 / 30 40 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1144 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER FOR THE AFTERNOON...EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VERY NICE AND COASTALLY HUMID WITH MID TO UPPER 70S. OUR SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH OUR RADAR FAIRLY QUIET AND
GETTING QUIETER. THE OCCASIONALLY CONVERGENT FORCING REMAINS GOOD
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO UNFOLD WITH HEATING OF LOW TO MID 80S.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT MAY TURN OUT TO BE EVEN MORE PRODUCTIVE THAN
MODELED AT THIS TIME FOR THE EAST. SOME NEW 12Z DATA IS
ENCOURAGING ON HRRR AND NAM. AT ANY RATE THIS SYSTEM IS OCCLUDED
AND SURROUNDING ITSELF WITH DRY AIR...CUT OFF NOW FROM THE RICH
TROPICAL CONNECTION OF YESTERDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TOO
LIGHT FOR MOST EVERYONE...BUT WITH LUCKY FEW POSSIBLY SEEING AN
INCH OR THREE. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THE UPPER PATTERN WILL
FALL ALOFT HEIGHT WISE AT LEAST COOLING THE 90 DEGREE HEAT OF
LATE. A ZONAL PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH BY THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP IN NEXT MONTHS BUCKET. /24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/
AVIATION...
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO ALLOW FOR VCTS CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS TODAY. CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AFTER 29/00Z. MVR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST TERMINAL SITES
AFTER 29/06Z. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. /05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015/
.DISCUSSION...
CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TX COAST JUST SW OF
GALVESTON WHILE A SFC LOW IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING CYCLONICALLY
AROUND THE TROUGH ARE GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTH INTO EAST TEXAS
AND THE TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
DEEP EAST TEXAS AND INTO N CNTRL LA. LATEST WV VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME MID LVL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ON THE ERN FLANK OF
THE TROUGH WHICH IS BEING DRAWN UP INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST WHICH SHOULD DISPLACE THE DRIER AIR FARTHER EAST.
DIURNAL HEATING WILL FUEL A GREAT DEAL OF THE CONVECTION TODAY SO
MOST OF THE SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-20. REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IS LIKELY
AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY DURING PEAK HEATING BUT COVERAGE
MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS AS THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA. A
FEW SHWRS OR TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY SE OF A LINE FROM
KLFK TO KMLU BUT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS BUT
WILL FLATTEN THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO NWLY BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND. NLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST LVLS WILL LIKELY KEEP GULF
MOISTURE CUT OFF FROM THE REGION SO CHANCES OF RAIN WITH THIS
FRONT DO NOT APPEAR VERY PROMISING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE FROPA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LVL DRY AIR THAT ARRIVES LATE
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE REINFORCEMENT OF THE
COOLER/DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND...SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. /09/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 86 70 86 69 / 50 30 40 20
MLU 82 69 85 68 / 50 50 40 20
DEQ 85 66 85 65 / 30 20 30 20
TXK 84 68 84 67 / 40 30 40 20
ELD 83 67 84 66 / 40 40 40 20
TYR 86 69 87 69 / 40 20 30 20
GGG 85 68 86 68 / 40 30 40 20
LFK 84 67 85 68 / 50 30 40 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/05/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
534 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA. TROF IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SFC COLD FRONTS. FIRST IS
MOVING ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI ATTM WHILE THE SECOND WHICH MARKS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NOTABLY COLDER AIR RUNS FROM JAMES BAY TO JUST W
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IMPROVED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN UNDERNEATH HAS
SUPPORTED AN EXPANSION OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE
LEAD COLD FRONT TODAY...THOUGH THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH THUNDER THIS
AFTN AFTER AN INCREASE DURING THE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING COLD FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN
S AND E THIS EVENING. WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PCPN
FIELDS...UTILIZED A COMBINATION OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND RADAR TRENDS
TO CONSTRUCT POP GRIDS THRU THE EVENING. LINGERING UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK AS WELL AS SECOND SFC COLD FRONT
SWEEPING SE MAY GENERATE A FEW -SHRA BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN
TIED MORE CLOSELY TO FIRST COLD FRONT. THUS...SOME LOW POPS WILL BE
CARRIED AS LATE AS THE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL/SE.
OTHERWISE...COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS CURRENTLY AT 10-13C WILL FALL TO -1C OVER THE
KEWEENAW TO 7C FAR SCNTRL BY 12Z TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH
COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND 40F AND PROBABLY
INTO THE UPPER 30S AT SOME HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER W AND NW
UPPER MI. HIGHEST MINS WILL BE NEAR LAKE MI...UPPER 40S/AROUND 50F.
ALTHOUGH THE SFC-850MB DELTA-T BTWN THE LAKE WATERS STILL IN THE
MID/UPR 50S F IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE CLOUDS/PCPN...FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY. SO...THE
CHILLY AIR FLOW OVER THE LAKE PROBABLY WON`T SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN
SCT CLOUDS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT.
850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT -1 TO -2C TUE MORNING. WITH FCST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOWING A VERY DRY AIR MASS FLOWING INTO THE UPPER LAKES...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. IF ANYTHING...THE
MOISTENING PROVIDED BY THE LAKE MAY PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER INLAND FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS ON
THE MOISTURE. SHOULDN`T BE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F AND A RATHER BRISK NW WIND...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 533 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH
WILL BE THE FIRST STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR QUITE A
WHILE /AT LEAST 10 DAYS/.
WE BEGIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGE SFC HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N
QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH LOWER MI AND THE MS DELTA. FOR UPPER MI
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW IS FIGURED ALOFT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN WEATHER
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE W HALF...MINUS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE POSTED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA IF
THE CURRENT FCST HOLDS TRUE. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO LOWS OF
27-35F...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. STAY TUNED
AS WINDS WILL BE CALM...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPS TO FALL
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST. 850MB TEMPS WILL E
IN THE -1C RANGE OVER THE KEWEENAW E THROUGH THE N TIER COUNTIES...TO
AS WARM AS 1.5-3C OVER MENOMINEE COUNTY /WARMEST OFF THE GFS/.
FCST MODELS DO SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SET UP ACROSS S
MANITOBA AT 00Z THURSDAY...BUT THE OVERALL STRENGTH IS DIFFERENT.
THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL GO ON ITS OWN...AND BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE...WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT NE MORE INTO
QUEBEC...THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVERHEAD.
ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE KEWEENAW SUNDAY...AND MAINLY
JUST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT
WILL NOT INCREASE THE POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS
A DEEPER 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC RETROGRADING AS CLOSE AS THE E HALF
OF QUEBEC BY 18Z SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AND IS
MORE FOCUSED ON THE S 500MB LOW SPINNING OVER THE SE STATES. WILL
KEEP A GENERAL BLEND UNTIL A MORE CONCRETE SOLUTION APPEARS. EITHER
WAY...COOL WEATHER AND A MAINLY N FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS UPPER
MI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
A COLD FRONT OVER WRN UPPER MI WILL PASS THRU KSAW IN THE NEXT FEW
HRS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT
KSAW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAILING FOR
THE NEXT FEW HRS. TO THE W...INCOMING DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY RESULTED
IN LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AT KIWD/KCMX...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE AT THOSE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. BEHIND THE SECOND COLD
FRONT...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE WINDS WILL
LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 25KT. INCOMING CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE VERY
DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TONIGHT/TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
WITH ONE COLD FRONT EXITING LAKE SUPERIOR NOW...A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. PRES RISES ALONG WITH INCREASING
OVERWATER INSTABILITY AS COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL
RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT TONIGHT AFTER THE SECOND
COLD FRONT PASSES. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WRN
LAKE AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT W TO E TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE UPPER
LAKES. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE ENE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...IT
WILL EXTEND A RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE
THE RIDGE MAY BE SITUATED A LITTLE FARTHER N THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...EASTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME BRISK INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT
TIMES DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR MIZ002-004-009-010-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS
CNTRL CANADA. TROF IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SFC COLD FRONTS. FIRST IS
MOVING ACROSS CNTRL UPPER MI ATTM WHILE THE SECOND WHICH MARKS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE NOTABLY COLDER AIR RUNS FROM JAMES BAY TO JUST W
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IMPROVED UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN UNDERNEATH HAS
SUPPORTED AN EXPANSION OF SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE
LEAD COLD FRONT TODAY...THOUGH THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH THUNDER THIS
AFTN AFTER AN INCREASE DURING THE MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING COLD FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN
S AND E THIS EVENING. WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PCPN
FIELDS...UTILIZED A COMBINATION OF MODEL CONSENSUS AND RADAR TRENDS
TO CONSTRUCT POP GRIDS THRU THE EVENING. LINGERING UPPER DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK AS WELL AS SECOND SFC COLD FRONT
SWEEPING SE MAY GENERATE A FEW -SHRA BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN
TIED MORE CLOSELY TO FIRST COLD FRONT. THUS...SOME LOW POPS WILL BE
CARRIED AS LATE AS THE MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE FAR SCNTRL/SE.
OTHERWISE...COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. 850MB TEMPS CURRENTLY AT 10-13C WILL FALL TO -1C OVER THE
KEWEENAW TO 7C FAR SCNTRL BY 12Z TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH
COOLER OVERNIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING TO AROUND 40F AND PROBABLY
INTO THE UPPER 30S AT SOME HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER W AND NW
UPPER MI. HIGHEST MINS WILL BE NEAR LAKE MI...UPPER 40S/AROUND 50F.
ALTHOUGH THE SFC-850MB DELTA-T BTWN THE LAKE WATERS STILL IN THE
MID/UPR 50S F IS SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE CLOUDS/PCPN...FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY. SO...THE
CHILLY AIR FLOW OVER THE LAKE PROBABLY WON`T SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN
SCT CLOUDS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT.
850MB TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AT -1 TO -2C TUE MORNING. WITH FCST SOUNDINGS
STILL SHOWING A VERY DRY AIR MASS FLOWING INTO THE UPPER LAKES...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. IF ANYTHING...THE
MOISTENING PROVIDED BY THE LAKE MAY PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER INLAND FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING WORKS ON
THE MOISTURE. SHOULDN`T BE ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT CLOUD COVER.
OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F AND A RATHER BRISK NW WIND...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH
WILL BE THE FIRST STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR QUITE A
WHILE /AT LEAST 10 DAYS/.
WE BEGIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGE SFC HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N
QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH LOWER MI AND THE MS DELTA. FOR UPPER MI
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW IS FIGURED ALOFT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN WEATHER
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE W HALF...MINUS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE POSTED FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA IF THE CURRENT FCST HOLDS TRUE. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO LOWS OF
27-35F...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. STAY
TUNED AS WINDS WILL BE CALM...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPS TO
FALL ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST. 850MB TEMPS
WILL E IN THE -1C RANGE OVER THE KEWEENAW E THROUGH THE N TIER
COUNTIES...TO AS WARM AS 1.5-3C OVER MENOMINEE COUNTY /WARMEST OFF
THE GFS/.
FCST MODELS DO SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SET UP ACROSS S
MANITOBA AT 00Z THURSDAY...BUT THE OVERALL STRENGTH IS DIFFERENT.
THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL GO ON ITS OWN...AND BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE...WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT NE MORE INTO
QUEBEC...THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVERHEAD.
ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE KEWEENAW SUNDAY...AND MAINLY
JUST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT
WILL NOT INCREASE THE POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS
A DEEPER 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC RETROGRADING AS CLOSE AS THE E HALF
OF QUEBEC BY 18Z SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AND IS
MORE FOCUSED ON THE S 500MB LOW SPINNING OVER THE SE STATES. WILL
KEEP A GENERAL BLEND UNTIL A MORE CONCRETE SOLUTION APPEARS. EITHER
WAY...COOL WEATHER AND A MAINLY N FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS UPPER
MI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
A COLD FRONT OVER WRN UPPER MI WILL PASS THRU KSAW IN THE NEXT FEW
HRS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT
KSAW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAILING FOR
THE NEXT FEW HRS. TO THE W...INCOMING DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY RESULTED
IN LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AT KIWD/KCMX...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE AT THOSE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. BEHIND THE SECOND COLD
FRONT...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE WINDS WILL
LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 25KT. INCOMING CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE VERY
DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TONIGHT/TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 421 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
WITH ONE COLD FRONT EXITING LAKE SUPERIOR NOW...A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. PRES RISES ALONG WITH INCREASING
OVERWATER INSTABILITY AS COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES WILL
RESULT IN NW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KT TONIGHT AFTER THE SECOND
COLD FRONT PASSES. WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WRN
LAKE AS HIGH PRES APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO MOSTLY
UNDER 15KT W TO E TUE NIGHT/WED AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE UPPER
LAKES. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE ENE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...IT
WILL EXTEND A RIDGE BACK TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE
THE RIDGE MAY BE SITUATED A LITTLE FARTHER N THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...EASTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME BRISK INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE AT
TIMES DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR MIZ002-004-009-010-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ALONG
THE CNDN BORDER AS RATHER SHEARED SHRTWV STRETCHING FM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO NW ONTARIO HAS WEAKENED THE UPR RDG THAT HAS BEEN SO
PERSISTENT RECENTLY OVER ERN NAMERICA. THIS SHRTWV IS SUPPORTING A
SFC COLD FNT THAT IS MOVING E THRU WRN LK SUP EARLY THIS MRNG. SINCE
THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHEARED OUT AND THE MSTR INFLOW IN THE SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FNT IS RATHER MODEST...SHOWER COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING FNT IS RATHER LIMITED...WITH SCT COVERAGE LIMITED BY THE
HIER STABILITY/DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB. CLDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FNT ARE PUSHING THRU THE WRN CWA...BUT THERE IS AN
AXIS OF MOCLR SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL TO W OF SOME LO CLDS ACRS THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/APX
RAOBS. STEADY SW WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE KEEPING TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL NOT FAR FM 60 EVEN WHERE THE SKY IS MOCLR. LOOKING
FARTHER TO THE W...THE 00Z ABERDEEN SDAKOTA ROAB SHOWS A VERY DRY
AIRMASS IS UNDER SFC HI PRES RDG TRAILING THE SFC COLD FNT. BUT
FARTHER TO THE W...THERE IS AN AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS/SHOWERS/EVEN
SOME LTG STRIKES MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS. MODELS SHOW AREA OF UPR
DVGC/MID LVL FGEN IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE NW
ONTARIO SHRTWV IS OVER THIS AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS. ANOTHER SHRTWV
IS DIGGING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND DEEPENING AN UPR TROF THERE.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FNT THAT WL BE CROSSING UPR MI TODAY.
TODAY...LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SFC
COLD FNT CROSSING UPR MI TODAY AND REACHING LK MI ARND 21Z. SINCE
UPR DVGC/AXIS OF MID LVL FGEN SUPPORTING AREA OF DISTURBED WX IN THE
NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE OVER THE UPR LKS WHILE THE FNT IS
CROSSING THE CWA...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW SHOWER COVERAGE EXPANDING
WITH TIME. SINCE THE DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE ABERDEEN RAOB AND TRAILING
THE FNT IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT THE WRN CWA BEFORE THE ARRIVAL...WL
FCST THE HIEST LIKELY POPS OVER THE SE HALF OF UPR MI THIS AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LTG STRIKES OBSVD UPSTREAM...MODEL
FCST MUCAPES NO HIER THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG OVER THE CWA SUPPORT
LEAVING TS OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. WITH EARLIER COLD FROPA OVER THE
W...TEMPS THERE WL BE MUCH LOWER THAN YDAY.
TNGT...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS EXIT THE SE CWA THIS
EVNG. THE 00Z NAM IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE...BUT FAVOR THE FASTER DRYING TREND SHOWN BY THE MAJORITY
OF THE OTHER MODELS GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE TRAILING AIRMASS DEPICTED
ON THE 00Z ABERDEEN RAOB. THESE MODELS FAVOR SOME LINGERING HIER
LIKELY POPS EARLY IN THE EVNG OVER THE SE BEFORE VIGOROUS DRYING
BRINGS A CLRG TREND EVEN THOUGH ANOTHER COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV NOW DIGGING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO PASS OVERNGT.
H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO ARND 0C OVER THE KEWEENAW BY 12Z TUE WL RESULT
IN A MUCH COOLER OVERNGT WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING TO ARND 40 AND
PERHAPS THE UPR 30S AT SOME OF THE HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. STRONG NW
FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS WL LIMIT THE TEMP DROP.
ALTHOUGH THE SFC-H85 DELTA T BTWN THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS /MID
TO UPR 50S F/IS SUFFICIENT FOR LK CLDS/PCPN...THE INCOMING AIRMASS
WL BE TOO DRY AND THE LLVL FLOW TOO ACYC TO SUPPORT MORE THAN SCT
CLDS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH
WILL BE THE FIRST STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR QUITE A
WHILE /AT LEAST 10 DAYS/.
WE BEGIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGE SFC HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N
QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH LOWER MI AND THE MS DELTA. FOR UPPER MI
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW IS FIGURED ALOFT THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN WEATHER
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE W HALF...MINUS THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE POSTED FOR THE REST OF THE
CWA IF THE CURRENT FCST HOLDS TRUE. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO LOWS OF
27-35F...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. STAY
TUNED AS WINDS WILL BE CALM...AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPS TO
FALL ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST. 850MB TEMPS
WILL E IN THE -1C RANGE OVER THE KEWEENAW E THROUGH THE N TIER
COUNTIES...TO AS WARM AS 1.5-3C OVER MENOMINEE COUNTY /WARMEST OFF
THE GFS/.
FCST MODELS DO SHOW AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/TROUGH SET UP ACROSS S
MANITOBA AT 00Z THURSDAY...BUT THE OVERALL STRENGTH IS DIFFERENT.
THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL GO ON ITS OWN...AND BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE...WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT NE MORE INTO
QUEBEC...THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVERHEAD.
ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE KEWEENAW SUNDAY...AND MAINLY
JUST ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE...BUT
WILL NOT INCREASE THE POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS
A DEEPER 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC RETROGRADING AS CLOSE AS THE E HALF
OF QUEBEC BY 18Z SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AND IS
MORE FOCUSED ON THE S 500MB LOW SPINNING OVER THE SE STATES. WILL
KEEP A GENERAL BLEND UNTIL A MORE CONCRETE SOLUTION APPEARS. EITHER
WAY...COOL WEATHER AND A MAINLY N FLOW SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS UPPER
MI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
A COLD FRONT OVER WRN UPPER MI WILL PASS THRU KSAW IN THE NEXT FEW
HRS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT
KSAW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAILING FOR
THE NEXT FEW HRS. TO THE W...INCOMING DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY RESULTED
IN LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AT KIWD/KCMX...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE AT THOSE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. BEHIND THE SECOND COLD
FRONT...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE WINDS WILL
LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 25KT. INCOMING CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE VERY
DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TONIGHT/TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS THIS MRNG AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW UP
TO 20 KTS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE
FAR EAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT.
EXPECT NNW WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO 25-30 KTS IN ITS WAKE LATE
TONIGHT/TUE. AS A TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE CLOSES IN ON THE AREA ON
TUE NIGHT/WED...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15-20 KTS. ONCE THE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC LATER IN THE WEEK...E WINDS UP TO 20 KTS
WILL DOMINATE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR MIZ002-004-009-010-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
320 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AND A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 60
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. STILL EXPECT A
BAND OF PREDOMINANTLY RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.
MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE CHARACTER OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE ESRL
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOWS SUBSTANTIALLY LESS COVERAGE THAN THE
OPERATIONAL NCEP HRRR DOES. INCLUDED THUNDER FOR OUR NORTHEAST ZONES
AS SPC MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE GREATER
THAN 1000 J PER KG EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LOWER MI INTO
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MI. OVERALL THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL BE LOW AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WELL AFTER
PEAK INSOLATION.
NO CONCERNS AFTER THIS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
DECIDED TO KEEP THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
CAVEATS TO THIS. FIRST...WITH SOMEWHAT MOIST H1000-H850 NE FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY COMBINED WITH DECREASING H850
TEMPS...THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD
CENTRAL LOWER MI DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
NOT INDICATING ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP COMING OFF THE LAKE...BUT IT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE AS WE GET CLOSER.
SECOND...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SENDING MIXED SIGNALS ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PRESENTLY IN THE GULF AS WELL AS TD 11 EAST OF FLORIDA.
LAST NIGHT`S GEM SOLUTION BROUGHT THE GULF SYSTEM RIGHT INTO
MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOT ON THE 12Z RUN. THE
LATEST ECMWF BRINGS TD 11 NORTH AND THEN ABRUPTLY WEST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A PRECIP SHIELD AS FAR
WEST AS LOWER MI BY SATURDAY. THIS IS A DEVIATION FROM THE PRIOR RUN
AS WELL AS OTHER MODEL RUNS. THERE IS NO CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKING INTO OUR REGION AT THIS TIME...SO WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY.
THE GFS AND FIM ARE INDICATING SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 15-20 KTS
COMING OFF LAKE HURON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...IMPACTING AREAS
ESPECIALLY EAST OF US 131. WITH H850 WINDS OF AROUND 25 KTS...THIS
SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE AS WE SHOULD BE MIXING TO AROUND THAT
HEIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NO FURTHER GIVEN THE CAA UNDERWAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT MAKE 60 FOR MANY AREAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS...IT WILL
CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE OCTOBER HAS ARRIVED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
IFR IS UNLIKELY THROUGH LATE EVENING OUTSIDE OF BRIEF POCKETS
OF SUB-1K FT CIGS NEAR MKG AND A LOW THREAT AT GRR. I DO NOT
EXPECT THIS TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...A PERIOD OF IFR APPEARS LIKELY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE
FOR LOWER CIGS...THOUGH SOME LOWER VIS TO 2 MILES OR LESS IS
POSSIBLE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHERN WI
SUPPORT THIS TREND. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
PERIOD...WITH TSRA NOT LIKELY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 10 KNOTS OR GREATER OUT OF THE N/NE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED WINDS
AND WAVES WILL PERSIST MOST OF TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
WINDS...WAVES...AND TIMING IS MARGINALLY GOOD. LATEST WAVEWATCH 3
RUN IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS RUN. AS NOTED BEFORE...
THE WHITEHALL TO GRAND HAVEN AREA MAY BE SHELTERED FROM THE LARGER
WAVES BY THE SABLE POINTS TO THE NORTH...SO HAVE LEFT THIS AREA OUT
OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. THIS ADMITTEDLY MAY BE A BIT TOO PRECISE
THIS FAR OUT...SO THIS AREA COULD GET ADDED TO THE ADVISORY WITH
FUTURE UPDATES.
A LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT HIGHER WAVES WILL PERSIST CONSIDERABLY
LONGER SOUTH OF SOUTH HAVEN WITH THE FAVORABLE FETCH...ALLOWING
POINTS FARTHER NORTH TO SEE AN EARLIER CANCELLATION. 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES COULD END UP PERSISTING WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND
SOUTH HAVEN AND POINTS FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE AN
EXTENSION IN TIME OF THIS ADVISORY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
CURRENT STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
ARE BOTH RUNNING NEAR NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORECAST...
AS LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
LMZ844>846-848-849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
201 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ALONG
THE CNDN BORDER AS RATHER SHEARED SHRTWV STRETCHING FM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO NW ONTARIO HAS WEAKENED THE UPR RDG THAT HAS BEEN SO
PERSISTENT RECENTLY OVER ERN NAMERICA. THIS SHRTWV IS SUPPORTING A
SFC COLD FNT THAT IS MOVING E THRU WRN LK SUP EARLY THIS MRNG. SINCE
THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHEARED OUT AND THE MSTR INFLOW IN THE SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FNT IS RATHER MODEST...SHOWER COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING FNT IS RATHER LIMITED...WITH SCT COVERAGE LIMITED BY THE
HIER STABILITY/DRY MID LVLS SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB. CLDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FNT ARE PUSHING THRU THE WRN CWA...BUT THERE IS AN
AXIS OF MOCLR SKIES OVER THE CENTRAL TO W OF SOME LO CLDS ACRS THE SE
HALF OF THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/APX
RAOBS. STEADY SW WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE KEEPING TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL NOT FAR FM 60 EVEN WHERE THE SKY IS MOCLR. LOOKING
FARTHER TO THE W...THE 00Z ABERDEEN SDAKOTA ROAB SHOWS A VERY DRY
AIRMASS IS UNDER SFC HI PRES RDG TRAILING THE SFC COLD FNT. BUT
FARTHER TO THE W...THERE IS AN AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS/SHOWERS/EVEN
SOME LTG STRIKES MOVING THRU THE NRN PLAINS. MODELS SHOW AREA OF UPR
DVGC/MID LVL FGEN IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE NW
ONTARIO SHRTWV IS OVER THIS AREA OF COLDER CLD TOPS. ANOTHER SHRTWV
IS DIGGING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA AND DEEPENING AN UPR TROF THERE.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FNT THAT WL BE CROSSING UPR MI TODAY.
TODAY...LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SFC
COLD FNT CROSSING UPR MI TODAY AND REACHING LK MI ARND 21Z. SINCE
UPR DVGC/AXIS OF MID LVL FGEN SUPPORTING AREA OF DISTURBED WX IN THE
NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO MOVE OVER THE UPR LKS WHILE THE FNT IS
CROSSING THE CWA...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW SHOWER COVERAGE EXPANDING
WITH TIME. SINCE THE DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE ABERDEEN RAOB AND TRAILING
THE FNT IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT THE WRN CWA BEFORE THE ARRIVAL...WL
FCST THE HIEST LIKELY POPS OVER THE SE HALF OF UPR MI THIS AFTN.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LTG STRIKES OBSVD UPSTREAM...MODEL
FCST MUCAPES NO HIER THAN ABOUT 100 J/KG OVER THE CWA SUPPORT
LEAVING TS OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. WITH EARLIER COLD FROPA OVER THE
W...TEMPS THERE WL BE MUCH LOWER THAN YDAY.
TNGT...MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS EXIT THE SE CWA THIS
EVNG. THE 00Z NAM IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE REST OF THE
GUIDANCE...BUT FAVOR THE FASTER DRYING TREND SHOWN BY THE MAJORITY
OF THE OTHER MODELS GIVEN DRYNESS OF THE TRAILING AIRMASS DEPICTED
ON THE 00Z ABERDEEN RAOB. THESE MODELS FAVOR SOME LINGERING HIER
LIKELY POPS EARLY IN THE EVNG OVER THE SE BEFORE VIGOROUS DRYING
BRINGS A CLRG TREND EVEN THOUGH ANOTHER COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH
SHRTWV NOW DIGGING THRU SCENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO PASS OVERNGT.
H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO ARND 0C OVER THE KEWEENAW BY 12Z TUE WL RESULT
IN A MUCH COOLER OVERNGT WITH MIN TEMPS DIPPING TO ARND 40 AND
PERHAPS THE UPR 30S AT SOME OF THE HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. STRONG NW
FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS WL LIMIT THE TEMP DROP.
ALTHOUGH THE SFC-H85 DELTA T BTWN THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS /MID
TO UPR 50S F/IS SUFFICIENT FOR LK CLDS/PCPN...THE INCOMING AIRMASS
WL BE TOO DRY AND THE LLVL FLOW TOO ACYC TO SUPPORT MORE THAN SCT
CLDS OVER THE HIER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO UPPER GREAT LAKES SLIDES TO
EASTERN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK WHILE HEIGHTS SLOWLY REBOUND FM
NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES. TROUGH WILL ENSURE A COOLER
WEEK WITH FROST/FREEZE OVER PARTS OF CWA TUE NIGHT AND MAYBE WED
NIGHT AS WELL.
ON TUESDAY...COOLER AIR ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO 0C TO -1C BY
AFTN. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD BE GUSTY UP TO 25 MPH...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR. THOUGH APPROACHING HIGH IS THE DOMINANT
FACTOR...NAM/GFS/GEM-REGIONAL INDICATE HIGHER H85 RH MOVING ACROSS
LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z AND EXPANDING BY 18Z AS THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.
ENVISION FEW-SCT STRATOCU CLOUDS EXPANDING INTO A STRATOCU/CUMULUS
DECK MAINLY CNTRL CWA BY AFTN...THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE REST OF
AFTN. WITH THE CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH
LOW TO MID 50S NEAR LK SUPERIOR AND MAY TOUCH 60 DEGREES IN THE FAR
SCNTRL. EVEN THOUGH SWIM RISK WILL BE HIGH ALONG MARQUETTE AND ALGER
COUNTIES...AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW 55 DEGREES WILL PROHIBIT THE
ISSUANCE OF A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT.
NEXT UP IS TUE NIGHT AND THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. UPSHOT IS THE
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL...AT LEAST AWAY FM THE INTERIOR WEST...IS NOT
AS CLEAR CUT AS IT LOOKED THE LAST FEW DAYS. RECENTLY IN THE
MODELS...IT APPEARED THAT THE APPROACHING HIGH WOULD SETTLE RIGHT
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. NOW...RIDGE AXIS STAYS MAINLY OVER WESTERN
UPR MICHIGAN WHILE A LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT NE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AFFECTS
EAST HALF OF CWA /SEE THIS AS 950-900MB WINDS OVER 10 KTS FM NCNTRL
INTO EASTERN CWA. ALSO...WITH H85 TEMPS STAYING AROUND -1C OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND WITH SOME 875MB-850MB
MOISTURE SHOWN ON GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS...MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SCT-
BKN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AS DELTA T VALUES WILL BE OVER 15C. BEST
CHANCE FOR BKN CLOUDS WOULD BE OVER FAR NCNTRL UPR MICHIGAN AND
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVER FOR
THERE AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE KEWEENAW. FOR TEMPS...USED GUIDANCE
THAT SHOWED LOWEST TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S OVER INTERIOR WEST BUT KEPT
READINGS MAINLY MID-UPR 30S WHERE CLOUDS MAY DISRUPT COOLING.
AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL DAY ON WED...ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH
SOME FROST SEEMS PROBABLE FOR WED NIGHT. SETUP IS NO BETTER THAN TUE
NIGHT THOUGH AS HIGH CENTER IS MORE OVER QUEBEC AND THAT LEAVES A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN. EVEN SO...MIN TEMPS MAY BE
AT LEAST IN LOWER 30S...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. DAYTIME HIGHS
WED INTO THU SHOULD STAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. THESE
VALUES ARE PRETTY SEASONABLE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER...THOUGH MUCH COOLER
THAN THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SEEN MUCH OF THIS MONTH.
AFTER SOME RAIN TODAY...DRIER TREND THAT BEGAN TO SHOW UP IN THE
MODELS LAST COUPLE DAYS CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY EXPANDS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON WED AND BUILDS FURTHER TO OVER 1040MB IN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY.
RIDGE FM THE HIGH EXPANDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
AS FAR WEST AS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. AT FIRST GLANCE...THIS
SHOULD KEEP MAJORITY OF REGION DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...GFS AND 12Z ECMWF INDICATE THAT DECENT STRENGTH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BREAKING FREE FM THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
WILL SLIDE OVER UPR GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF
NOT NEAR AS DEEP WITH TROUGH AS IT SHOWED WITH 12Z RUN THOUGH. DEEP
MOISTURE APPEARS SPOTTY BUT THERE ARE HINTS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
FORCING AND MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS. OVERALL MOST CWA WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
LACKING LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE SFC HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE. IF THERE ENDS UP BEING BETTER CYCLONIC FLOW IN LOW-
LEVELS AS 12Z ECMWF INDICATED...COULD SEE HELP FM LK SUPERIOR FOR
PRECIP AS H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AS LOW AS -3C WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVERHEAD. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.
FINALLY...GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF WITH SECONDARY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN MORE TYPICAL NW TO SE
PROGRESSION LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK /DAYS 8-10/. H85
TEMPS AS LOW AS -9C IN THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR OVER ONTARIO WITH
AROUND -5C OVER UPR MICHIGAN LAST TWO RUNS. NEITHER THE 12Z RUN OR
MOST RECENT 00Z RUN OF ECMWF SHOWED ADDITIONAL TROUGHING THOUGH WITH
RIDGING RE APPEARING INTO NEXT WEEK IN WAKE OF THE WEEKEND
TROUGHING. ECMWF DOES INDICATE TROUGHING AND SIMILAR DEGREE OF COLD
AIR...BUT IT STAYS WELL UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST CANADA MOST OF THE
WEEK. FOR THE FORECAST...CONSENSUS SHOULD COVER IT ATTM. USUALLY DO
NOT GET TOO CONCERNED WITH THESE TYPE OF DETAILS IN THE FAR REACHES
OF EXTENDED AND BEYOND...BUT GIVEN THE VERY WARM SEPTEMBER ABOUT TO
CONCLUDE /POTENTIALLY RECORD WARMEST AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN/...IT IS NOTABLE THAT SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT COOLER
AIRMASSES CLOSE BY AS FIRST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER ARRIVES. OFFICIAL
8-14 DAY AND EXPERIMENTAL 3-4 WEEK FORECASTS FM CPC STILL INDICATING
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL OVERALL THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
A COLD FRONT OVER WRN UPPER MI WILL PASS THRU KSAW IN THE NEXT FEW
HRS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT
KSAW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAILING FOR
THE NEXT FEW HRS. TO THE W...INCOMING DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY RESULTED
IN LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AT KIWD/KCMX...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
THE RULE AT THOSE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. BEHIND THE SECOND COLD
FRONT...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE WINDS WILL
LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 25KT. INCOMING CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE VERY
DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW TONIGHT/TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
SW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS THIS MRNG AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW UP
TO 20 KTS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE
FAR EAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT.
EXPECT NNW WINDS TO INCREASE UP TO 25-30 KTS IN ITS WAKE LATE
TONIGHT/TUE. AS A TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE CLOSES IN ON THE AREA ON
TUE NIGHT/WED...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15-20 KTS. ONCE THE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC LATER IN THE WEEK...E WINDS UP TO 20 KTS
WILL DOMINATE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1222 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY DRAPED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND ON INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN OUT AHEAD OF
IT...BUT NOT BRINGING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. SOME FOG
HAS FORMED BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT VISIBILITIES ARE STILL IN THE 3-5
MILE RANGE AND DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GET MUCH WORSE. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY. OF INTEREST ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF WYOMING AND INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH SOME DECENTLY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND A FAIR AMOUNT
OF LIGHTNING WITH IT...SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
DAY. THUS...EXPECT THAT THIS PARTICULAR FEATURES IS PROBABLY
STRONGER THAN MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW...AND EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO
RIPPLE EAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY TODAY. BASED ON
THIS STRONGER FEATURE HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS MY
SOUTHEASTERN CWA DURING THE DAY TODAY...USING THE 06Z HRRR RUN FOR
THE GENERAL PLAN AND HAVE MADE SOME OTHER TWEAKS TO PLACE A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MY NW WISCONSIN COUNTIES
DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY...GENERALLY FROM 15Z TO 21Z.
OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
MOST LOCATIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT THE FRONT DROPS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CAN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT WITH CLEAR OR NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME 850MB TEMPS IN THE -3 C
RANGE BY 12Z. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR SOME CHILLY TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO EVEN THE UPPER 20S IN SOME OF OUR
COLD SPOTS AND 30S ELSEWHERE. FROST IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. HAVE
LEFT IT TO THE DAY SHIFT TO SEND OUT A FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY AS
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT ANTICIPATE
THAT WE WILL NEED ONE OR BOTH FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TUESDAY TO REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S IN THIS
CHILLY AIRMASS...AND THE DRY AIR TO BRING OUR MIN RH VALUES DOWN
INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND DUE TO A
WIDE RANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT SOME NOTABLE TRENDS ARE
BEGINNING TO EMERGE. A COOL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
TO NEAR FREEZING IN SOME LOCATIONS...THEN GENERALLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS HIGH DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING...MAINLY ACROSS INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BUT ALSO IN
POCKETS ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND MN ARROWHEAD. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD
FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE IN PLACE THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE WED/WED NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST TO EVEN NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE TOWARDS THE BORDERLAND.
WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA
WEDNESDAY...THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THURSDAY AS EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL DUE TO AN 850/700 MB HIGH OVER ONTARIO.
FOR THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...EVEN DISREGARDING THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH HAS RECENTLY
SHOWN POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. ONE INTERESTING FEATURE ON THE 00Z
GFS IS A LOW THAT DROPS OUT OF EASTERN CANADA AND MOVES WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THE LATEST
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS AS STRONGLY...PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE DEPICTED
SUCH A FEATURE. ONE CONSISTENT FEATURE IS A 850MB HIGH OVER FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WHICH COULD BRING AS COLD AS 0C AIR OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW THIS COLD OVER A RELATIVELY
WARM LAKE COULD PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT /RAIN/ SHOWERS...BUT WITH
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING EWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CLEARING OUT
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
15 TO 20 KTS...AND REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE N/NW TONIGHT AROUND 5
TO 10 KT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 69 40 56 37 / 10 0 0 0
INL 62 29 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
BRD 70 38 60 38 / 20 0 0 0
HYR 70 36 59 29 / 60 0 0 0
ASX 70 40 58 34 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...TENTINGER
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ALLUDED TO WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH
FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL IN THIS TIMEFRAME ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS
WHERE RH SHOULD BE LOWEST AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE DRIEST.
HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF EVOLVING E COAST LOW
PRESSURE AND ULTIMATE EFFECTS ON OUR SURFACE WINDS AND AIR
MASS...HAVE NOT PUT ANYTHING IN HWO AS OF YET. MODEL LOW LEVEL TEMP
FORECASTS SUGGEST MODEL BLENDS ARE TOO WARM FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER GIVEN FULL SUN AND GENERALLY DRY GROUND EXCEPT OVER
FAR EASTERN MS...AM HESITANT TO LOWER MAX TEMPS. HENCE FOR NOW JUST
EXPANDED THE DIURNAL RANGES...GOING WITH MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MAXES BUT
CUTTING 3-5 DEG FOR MINS ESPECIALLY FRI AND SAT MORNINGS. /AEG/
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF CONTINUES TO ROTATE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
GTR/MEI AND HBG. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
AT 5-8KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD./15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 70 85 69 84 / 39 36 29 32
MERIDIAN 69 83 67 83 / 66 39 37 36
VICKSBURG 68 85 67 85 / 35 40 27 24
HATTIESBURG 71 87 69 85 / 36 31 21 46
NATCHEZ 68 83 67 84 / 32 35 23 27
GREENVILLE 68 83 68 84 / 36 43 28 19
GREENWOOD 69 83 67 84 / 53 46 33 26
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AEG/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
332 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
Forecast area continues to get squeezed between upper level
shortwave energy that is retrograding back to the north towards
forecast area and next cold front moving in from the northwest.
Showers currently trying to move into our far southern counties as
of 20z. So will initially see isolated/scattered showers develop and
advect north into forecast area through this evening and into the
overnight hours. In the meantime, cold front will move closer to
region from the northwest, but will not see any precipitation from
it until after 12z Tuesday, just an increase in cloud cover. Because
of this weather pattern, winds will be light and variable. As for
overnight lows, once again to remain about 10 degrees above normal,
in the low to mid 60s.
Byrd
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
FA will remain on the northern fringes of the upper low drifting
into the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow, while upper trof
pushing into the upper Great Lakes will allow cold front that
approaching northern sections of the FA late tonight to ooze
across the region during the day. Some PoPs will be tied to both
these features, but I`m really not sure that the 12z based MOS
from either the NAM or GFS have a real good handle on the expected
precip threat and/or trends.
Mass and moisture fields would certainly suggest that southeast
sections of the CWA will be on the northern fringes of the precip
associated with the southern system on Tuesday, which also suggests
that some MOS numbers in this section of the FA may be a bit too
high (and this has certainly been the case for the past several
days). However, the last few hours of the last several HRRR runs
suggest precip blossoming very late tonight as far north to near the
I44-I70 corridor...roughly near the northern trofing associated with
the upper low. I have upped PoPs some over the southeast half of
the CWA, but ultimately expect a pretty sharp PoP gradient that will
be resolved in the nowcast time frame.
Meanwhile across the north, expect a fairly large band of showers
along and especially north of the cold front just north of our FA
early Tuesday, with the showers working southeast and gradually
diminishing in coverage with time as the cold front works across the
region. Some low post-frontal shower threat will likely linger into
the evening hours before the drier air behind the front scours out
the low level moisture.
The latest 12z guidance is continuing the trend of the last few days
of being more bullish deepening the UA trof over the eastern CONUS
during the latter half of the week, which in turn allows for a
stronger intrusion of the Canadian high into the mid-Mississippi
Valley. Based on progged 850MB thermal profiles, temperatures will
have a decidely autumn feel...with highs dropping into the 60s and
lows tumbling into the 40s across the entire region Friday-Sunday.
With the high progged to exert greater dominance in the weather over
the region, it would appear that precip chances will be fairly low.
Specifics in the medium range UA progs are hard to pin down as
solutions are noisy and chaotic to say the least...but there does
seem to be some agreement that WAA will develop over the Plains
Friday night, with associated shower threat possibly working into
western/sw portions of the FA Sat-Sun.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2015
Diurnal mvfr cu has developed across the forecast area so will see
mvfr cigs for a few hours before lifting to low end vfr by 20z
Monday. Otherwise, light and variable winds. Cold front to move
into forecast area during the morning on Tuesday, moving through
KUIN by 14z and metro area by 17z Tuesday. Will see winds veer to
the north behind the front and pickup to between 10 and 15kts and
mvfr cigs move in. Precipitation coverage hard to pin down with
this boundary, so kept tafs dry for now. On another note, with
some low level moisture lingering, could see some patchy fog
towards daybreak on Tuesday in the river valleys, so may need to
add mention in later tafs at KSUS and KCPS.
Specifics for KSTL:
Diurnal mvfr cu has developed across the forecast area so will see
mvfr cigs for a few hours before lifting to low end vfr by 20z
Monday. Otherwise, light and variable winds. Cold front to move
into metro area by 17z Tuesday. Will see winds veer to the north
behind the front and pickup to between 10 and 15kts and mvfr cigs
move in. Precipitation coverage hard to pin down with this
boundary, so kept taf dry for now. On another note, with some low
level moisture lingering, could see some patchy fog towards
daybreak on Tuesday in the river valleys, so may need to add
mention in later tafs at KSUS and KCPS.
Byrd
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 67 81 56 73 / 20 30 20 5
Quincy 62 74 48 68 / 10 30 10 5
Columbia 62 80 52 72 / 10 30 20 5
Jefferson City 61 81 55 72 / 10 30 20 5
Salem 65 78 57 72 / 30 40 20 5
Farmington 63 76 56 71 / 30 40 20 5
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
322 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION WITH SEVERAL PV
ANOMALIES ROTATING AROUND IT. IN ADDITION...POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LOW OVER THE E PAC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PV CONNECTION TO THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY. CLOSER TO HOME...WEAKER PV ANOMALY
MOVING ACROSS SRN WY ATTM GENERATING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ACROSS
ERN WY...WITH ISOLD SHRA/-TSRA IN PORTIONS OF NC NEBR ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAKENING MID LEVEL FGEN ACROSS THAT AREA. SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARLY STALLED FROM NEAR LIMON CO TO NORTH OF GLD TO JUST
S OF EAR TO S OF YANKTON SD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
NEW COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWD OVERNIGHT WITH
MOST OF WESTERN AND NC NEBR REMAINING IN THE POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ATTENDANT TO A
EWD ADVANCING PV ANOMALY AS MENTIONED WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN
SD/NRN NEBR THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT
OVERNIGHT BUT UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AREA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
REMAINS PRESENT ON THE 305/310K LEVELS. ELEVATED WEAK TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS BROWN...ROCK AND HOLT COUNTIES
STILL ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FGEN WITHIN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY. INTEGRATING THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OVERNIGHT YIELDS AN
AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA CURRENTLY OVER SWRN SD TO MOVE ACROSS NRN
NEBR BUT THEN SOME MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE 06- 09Z TIME FRAME THAT MAY ALLOW
REDEVELOPMENT WWD. MEANWHILE THE HRRR SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE SWD ADVANCING FRONT PRIOR TO 06Z AND THEN PUSHING SEWD
OVERNIGHT. WITH SEVERAL SMALL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TIMING AND LOCATION OF NEW DEVELOPMENT BECOMES DIFFICULT. HAVE
THEREFORE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIP...LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STRONGER THAN WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD LOW VSBYS. HENCE HAVE SIDED ON PATCHY FOG
MENTION.
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY SO
WOULD EXPECT OCCASIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA ESPECIALLY IN SWRN
NEBR. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN CONSIDERABLY DUE TO LOW CLOUD COVER
AND ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
MODELS AGAIN COMING IN COOLER. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
NAM FOR THE MID TERM AND GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE LONG TERM. TOMORROW
NIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST SEVERAL WEAK WAVES MOVING
THROUGH RIDGE. ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH LLJ AND
SOME LIFT. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH DRIZZLE TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF WARMER THAN GFS. STRONG WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WITH SHARP GRADIENT OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. COOL AT
THE SURFACE WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT AS WARNER AIR AT THE SURFACE TO
THE SOUTH LIFTED OVER THE COOLER AIR. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER
NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. TRANSITIONING TO RAINSHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. SHOWERS END
SUNDAY WITH A WARMUP INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EAST AND
70S WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND THEN COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. 50S AND 60S SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS UP UNTIL THE 06Z HOUR...HOWEVER...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 23Z-04Z WHICH COULD LOWER CEILINGS TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AND A SLOWLY SAGGING COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHICH IS REPRESENTED FAIRLY WELL BY CURRENT SHORT
TERM MODELS. WINDS PRIOR TO THE 06Z HOUR...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE
KLBF TERMINAL...WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST
AFTER 06Z THEN BECOMES TRICKY...AS VARYING SOLUTIONS ARE CURRENTLY
BEING PROPOSED BY THE NAM/GFS/RAP/SREF MODELS. THE MAJOR
UNCERTAINTY THAT ARISES FROM THE VARYING MODELING SOLUTIONS IS BOTH
AREAL COVERAGE OF THE LOWER CEILINGS...IN ADDITION TO THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE LOWER CEILINGS. THE CURRENT 12Z NAM SOLUTION IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE LOWER CEILINGS...
THE 12Z GFS IS THEN CONSIDERABLY DRIER IN NATURE...WITH THE RAP
BEING A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO THESE CEILINGS.
HAVE DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO THE KLBF
TERMINAL AFTER 06Z...AS THE KLBF TERMINAL WILL BE IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD FRONT. HAVE THEN SIDED WITH MORE OF A GFS/RAP
SOLUTION FOR KVTN...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE
DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF STRATUS.
AT THIS TIME...NOT THINKING THAT FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM AT EITHER THE
KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS...AS WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE MINIMUM
THRESHOLDS CONDUCIVE TO THE FORMATION OF FOG.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...JWS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MOLDAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
135 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1130 AM UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE, WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN OVER OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES, AS THE BEST MOISTURE FEED IS IN THIS AREA, AROUND
THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEAR-TERM,
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR.
DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, A MILD AIR MASS, ALONG WITH FURTHER
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, WILL STILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE 70S OVER
MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 400 AM UPDATE...
AFTER GETTING LUCKY FOR MOST OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT BEING CLEAR
ENOUGH TO VIEW THE ECLIPSE, REALITY IS SETTING IN WITH THICK
CLOUDS ON OUR DOORSTEPS WITH SOME SHOWERS NOT FAR BEHIND. FOLLOWED
LATEST HRRR QPF FIELDS AND INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH MID
MORNING FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER UP THROUGH FINGER LAKES.
PRECIP SHOULD MAKE IT TO CNY BUT MAY BREAK UP A BIT BY THE TIME
THAT HAPPENS. LATER TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES DON`T
LOOK ALL THAT GREAT BUT WE CAN`T RULE ANYTHING OUT, ESPECIALLY IN
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AREAS JUST MENTIONED ABOVE. FARTHER SOUTH
ESPECIALLY INTO PA, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH MY GARDEN IS WINDING DOWN DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT/LOW
SUN ANGLE, I AM GETTING EXCITED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN AROUND HERE! RAIN CHANCES GO UP FOR OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO MATCH WELL WITH
OTHER OFFICES ALONG WITH THE FACT LI`S ARE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.
UNLIKE PAST RAIN EVENTS WITH EACH MODEL RUN WE ARE LOOKING AT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS INSTEAD OF LOWER
ONES. IN FACT THE MAIN TREND OF THE 0Z RUNS OF BOTH THE EURO AND
GFS NOT ONLY RAISE RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA IS MUCH SLOWER. ACCORDINGLY I RAISED POPS
ABOVE 70% FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. IN FACT THROUGH MUCH
OF WEDNESDAY NOW, WE HAVE POPS ABOVE 60% FROM NEAR BINGHAMTON
SOUTH AND EAST. DRIER WEATHER NOW HOLDS OFF UNTIL WED NIGHT. AT
EARLY LOOK AT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE A HALF OF AN INCH UP
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES, BUT EXCEEDING AN INCH FROM NEAR
BINGHAMTON SOUTH AND EAST, WHERE PRECIP LINGERS THE LONGEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM SUNDAY UPDATE...
THOUGH DIFFERING ON DETAILS...MODELS ARE STARTING TO GET INTO
BETTER LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT...ON THE IDEA OF AN UNSETTLED TROUGHY
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE BY NEXT WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW...CUTOFF LOW
EVOLUTION...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL COASTAL SURFACE LOW...MAY ALLOW
MOISTURE TO START CREEPING IN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT...BUT THE END RESULT DOES APPEAR TO BE COOL AND WET PERIODS
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BEFORE THEN...MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THANKS TO FEED OF AIR FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC. A FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE STALLED OUT NOT
TOO FAR SOUTHEAST OF US...SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT
KEEPING FORECAST GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MARINE LAYER WITH LOW LEVEL S/SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN FAIRLY
LOW CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS GENERALLY RISE TO LOW END
VFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN DROP AGAIN TO MVFR THIS EVENING. LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IFR WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FOR KITH/KBGM/KAVP. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
RISE IN CIGS FOR TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN BY MID TO LATE
MORNING AND HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVING BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY S/SE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
.OUTLOOK...
TUES AFT-TUES NGT...SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
THURSDAY - SATURDAY...BRIEF RESPITE IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE MORE RAIN/SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS ARRIVE BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MLJ
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...PCF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
149 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP INTO THE
REGION TODAY... BETWEEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY... RESULTING IN A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN
WEATHER CONDITIONS... HOWEVER A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO WET AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. VERY MOIST AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES
PER THE BLENDED TPW IMAGERY. A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON AND GIVEN SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION (ALREADY SEEING THIS ACROSS EASTERN NC PER THE SPC
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS)...PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FROM EAST TO WEST (FOLLOWED THE HRRR
CLOSELY FOR THE TIMING). THIS AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE COASTAL PLAIN SEEING
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND FURTHER WEST BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS).
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 3 AM...COLUMN REMAINS VERY MOIST THIS
MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN IS NOT
QUITE WHAT IT`S BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WE`RE IN GRADUAL
TRANSITION AWAY FROM THE DYING WEDGE REGIME TO AN ATYPICALLY HUMID
(ESP FOR LATE SEPTEMBER) AIR MASS. THE PARENT HIGH WHICH BROUGHT THE
DAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND IS NOW CENTERED WELL OUT OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC YET STILL NOSING WEST AND SW INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS. THE
STABLE POOL OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT HAS WEAKENED... AND THE AIR MASS
HAS BECOME MORE HOMOGENEOUS ACROSS THE CWA... DEMONSTRATED BY
TEMP/DEWPOINT RANGES OF JUST AROUND 4 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL NC...
AND UNIFORM OBSERVED LIFTED INDICES AND CINH. MUCH OF THIS PAST
EVENING`S LIGHT PRECIP DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS SHIFTED WELL
NW OUT OF THE AREA... LEAVING JUST WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PERHAPS A
FEW ISOLATED DRIZZLE PATCHES. THIS RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS... HOWEVER AREAS OF SHOWERS
NOW JUST OFF THE NC COAST ARE ON TRACK TO TRANSLATE WEST OR WNW INTO
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THEN INTO THE PIEDMONT FROM MID/LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... WITH COVERAGE FILLING IN AS HEATING ALLOWS
FOR A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT (WEAK)
DESTABILIZATION... WITH LIFT POTENTIALLY AUGMENTED BY A WEAK WAVE
TRACKING NE OVER ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW POPS THIS
MORNING... TRENDING UP TO LIKELY EAST AND CHANCE WEST... WITH HIGHER
POPS THEN PUSHING WNW INTO THE WRN PIEDMONT AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING HOURS... A PATTERN SUGGESTED BY RECENT RUNS OF BOTH LARGE
SCALE AND CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING THE SREF/GFS/3 KM
NAMRR AND THE LATEST HRRR RUNS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP WARM
LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN LCL-TO-FREEZING-LEVEL DEPTH OVER 4
KM... ALONG WITH PW VALUES OF 2.0-2.3 INCHES... SO ANY SHOWERS
FORMING TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. FORECAST
MUCAPE FOR TODAY IS UNIMPRESSIVE (UNDER 1000 J/KG... MOST OF WHICH
IS BELOW THE -10C LEVEL) WITH GENERALLY SUB-20-KT DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR... SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME... ALTHOUGH A
STRIKE OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT THE
AREA OF BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE TO CONTINUE SHIFTING WNW TOWARD THE
FOOTHILLS DURING THE EVENING... SO WILL TREND POPS DOWN FROM EAST TO
WEST TONIGHT... RESULTING IN 30-40% CHANCES NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING
DOWN TO JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 OVERNIGHT. STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND TRAJECTORIES ALONG WITH PERSISTENCE... ALTHOUGH A LIGHT
BREEZE FROM THE NE -- AS MODELS SUGGEST -- MAY INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WILL LEAVE IN A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. EXPECT
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S NW (WHERE THE AIR IS STILL A BIT MORE STABLE
AND MORE RESISTANT TO MIXING AND THUS SHOULD SEE LESS SUNSHINE) TO
AROUND 80-82 EAST OF HIGHWAY 1... WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MILD
LOWS TONIGHT OF 67-71... AROUND 10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...
CONTINUED MOIST WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS... AND PERHAPS A STORM
OR TWO. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
LOWER MISS VALLEY TO LA WILL CONTINUE TO TILT SLOWLY... RESULTING IN
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL VORTICITY MOVING FROM THE NW GULF
INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE LOW
LEVEL ATLANTIC INFLOW SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE WITH A REDUCED
FETCH... A FUNCTION OF WHAT IS NOW TD #11 AS IT PUSHES SLOWLY NW/NNW
ON ITS ANTICIPATED TRACK TOWARD THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF NC. PW IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AT 2.0-2.3 INCHES... WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS... AND MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
INSTABILITY TUE AFTERNOON WITHIN PERSISTENT HIGH THETA-E ADVECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS. DESPITE THE WEAK WIND FIELD AND MARGINAL DPVA...
WE SHOULD SEE DECENT UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE BROAD JET FROM THE GULF INTO THE TN VALLEY. WILL TREND
POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON... WANING
GRADUALLY IN THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME BUT STAYING AT 30-50%... WITH
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES SHIFTING WNW INTO THE NW PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS WITH TIME. SLIGHTLY BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED...
STILL MARGINAL THOUGH... SO HAVE INCLUDED JUST A MENTION OF ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 75-83 AND LOWS 66-71... BOTH ABOVE
NORMAL... WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING FIRM. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM MONDAY...
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS HIGH AS CAN BE ADVERTISED
FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PLENTY OF SPREAD AND EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE CONFLICTING ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THE IMPORTANT WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS. THE MAIN
WEATHER HAZARDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A LOW END HEAVY RAIN THREAT...
BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY BE MORE OF A HELP TO CURRENT DROUGHT
STATUS THAN IT WOULD BE A THREAT FOR FLOODING. THE QPF MID TO LATE
WEEK IS THE MAIN QUESTION AS ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF THE MODELS INDICATE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN INLAND WITH OVERRUNNING RAINS AGAIN THU NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY... WHICH 70 PERCENT OF THE MODELS SUPPORT THE HEAVY SWATH
OF QPF ALONG OR JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
ONE THING SEEMS TO BE MORE CERTAIN SHOULD BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
AGAIN AS ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH INTO
NC/SC THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS OCCURS AS A TROUGH ALOFT AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST BY MOST MODELS
TO BRING A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED PATTERN THAT BEGAN LATE
LAST WEEK. A RETURN TO A PROLONGED NE FLOW... CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS... AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED THU-SAT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER
THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST (KRDU/KFAY/KRWI)...WHILE THE
TRIAD (KGSO/KINT) MAY IMPROVE SOME FROM THEIR CURRENT IFR STATE...
BUT ONLY TO MVFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND THESE COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS.
PRECIP WILL DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT LIGHT RAIN
AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN PERSIST ALL
NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS FORMING OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...AS CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH KRDU/KRWI/KFAY LIFTING TO
MVFR THEN PERHAPS LOW-END VFR AND KINT/KGSO LIKELY STAYING MVFR
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. -KRD
OUTLOOK...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ONE
AGAIN LATE TUE EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK WED. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN FOR MIDDAY WED BUT SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WED/WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WED NIGHT AND STALL TO OUR SE INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A RETURN TO PREDOMINANTLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WITHIN
AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...KRD/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...KRD/HARTFIELD